Tag Archive for: Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Friday 05/05/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can, of course, also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Newmarket
  • 3.00 Newmarket
  • 3.20 Musselburgh
  • 4.45 Newmarket
  • 7.10 Cheltenham
  • 7.55 Newcastle

The first of those is the 'best' on paper as a Group 2 race, but with a small field and a likely short favourite, I'll take the next on the list, the competitive-looking 3.00 Newmarket, an 8-runner (fingers crossed for E/W bettors), Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

None of these managed to win last time out, which is unusual at this level and more surprisingly, only bottom weight Lord Rapscallion made thframe, but even that was at Class 4, as he now steps up two classes. Persuasion and Darkness are both also up from Class 3.

The Gatekeeper did win three races ago and Final Watch won four starts back, but the rest are winless in five. They have all, however, previously won at a trip similar to this one and three have won here at HQ; Accidental Agent scored over course and distance just over a year ago and Final Watch did so almost two years ago (and has won over 7f on the July course), whilst Star Of Orion won here over 6f on debut almost three years ago and has since scored over this trip on the July course.

The bottom three on the card could be excused for needing a run, as Bass Player, Accidental Agent and Star of Orion return from breaks of 22 to 27 weeks. Top weight Persuasion is back from a two-month rest and the other four have all raced in the past four weeks with Darkness & Lord Rapscallion out as recently as last week.

Instant Expert tells us that we have four previous good to firm ground winners, one trying it for the first time and one with a really poor win record! As for Class 2 racing, just two have wins under their belt and two have really toiled...

And with a  0 from 11 record on good to firm and an even worse 0/25 at Class 2, I won't be rushing out to back Lord Rapscallion. He's not great at this trip either, nor is Star of Orion who also has a dismal Class 2 record. I'm fairly sure neither of these would be winning this one. Elsewhere. Persuasion has struggled at the trip, but those 2 wins from 15 are his only two wins in a 21-race career, so I doubt he wins this either.

Yet, his place record at the trip is pretty good and only Accidental Agent's poor place record on good to firm ground stands out as being unwanted...

...he does seem to either win or not make the frame on good to firm!

Unusually for a straight seven furlongs, we do have a slight draw bias and similarly surprisingly, it seems to favour those drawn highest in eight runner contests...

...although the advantage isn't huge. Pace, however, is a totally different kettle of fish...

Those setting the pace make the frame in half of the races, but tend to only win 1 in 14 or so, leaving the door open for the stalking horses to come in and snatch the race late on, even to the extent that hold-up horses can often watch the leaders take each other on, do too much and be left vulnerable to a late run, but for now, a prominent position looks the best option, which based on recent runs...

...might make connections of The Gatekeeper a little wary of his ability to make all from the front. The pace/draw heat map...

...suggests we should focus on...

  • the mid-drawn to high prominent runners
  • or the low drawn leaders.

Summary

Our race pace/draw combinations look like this

...where the Bass Player looks the nearest thing to a mid/high drawn prominent runner, but he has been in such poor form that we might want to wait and see how his recent wind op has changed him. The Gatekeeper, however, does seem to the low drawn leader role and based on his winning run at the start of March, he's probably the one to beat here.

He's currently available at 4/1 with Hills, which I think is more than fair and the one who might cause him most bother is probably Final Watch. The rest are a fairly mediocre bunch for a Class 2 contest and it might well be Accidental Agent or Darkness who complete the frame here.

Racing Insights, Thursday 04/05/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 4.30 Redcar
  • 4.40 Ayr
  • 5.45 Chelmsford
  • 5.55 Tipperary
  • 7.55 Tipperary

...which are fairly uninspiring featuring two Irish races and UK flat handicaps at Class 6 and Class 5 plus a UK Class 5 Novice A/W contest. That said, every race has a winner to be found and the best of the bunch looks like being the 4.40 Ayr, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left handed 7f on good to firm ground...

No LTO winners on display, but Classy Al was a runner-up and won two starts ago, Novak has been secind in each of his last two and Judgment Call, Lilikoi and Drakeholes do at least have a win on their five-race form line, whilst Rogue Force and Merricourt are each unplaced in their last seven outings.

Merricourt is also up in class here, which willmake life even harder, but both Classy Al and bottom weight Global Humor do at least have the respite of a drop in class. Classy Al is noted as a fast finisher and he's the only one without a run in the last seven weeks or so, as he returns from a seven month break.

Rogue Force will be hoping that a change of scenery inspires him into some form on his debut for Mike Smith and like all of his rivals, he has actually already won over a similar trip to this one. Half of the field (Judgment Call, Classy Al, Merricourt & Global Humor) are also course and distance winners.

Instant Expert doesn't add much meat to those bones above, but does point out that Merricourt, Novak and to some extent, Classy Al have toiled at Class 5, whilst Judgment Call has a poor win record here at Ayr. Elsewhere this trip hasn't tended to suit Novak, Merricourt or Global Humor, which is a shame for the latter, as he has reasonable stats across the board despite being an unreliable type...

Interestingly Global Humor is some 10lbs below his last win. Mind you, he has lost 19 in a row since scoring in September 2021, so he might not break that sequence here. As there's not much green above, let's have a look at who might be contenders for the frame via the place stats...

Again, Global Humor scores well, but his run of form is a real concern and it's Lilikoi who catches the eye here. He'll relish the quick ground and both class and trip are ideal for him. He's drawn low here in stall 2, with only the returning Classy Al inside him and the draw stats from past contests here say that whilst a high draw is preferable, your stall allocation shouldn't be the reason for a defeat...

And those two drawn lowest will probably just sit in and wait for a late run, if their last few outings are anything to go by...

...whilst it's highly likely that Novak will make a run for the line from the word go. A further look back at those races above for the draw stats says that leaders make the frame more often than any other running style but are prone to getting caught leading to a dismal win record...

Summary

It's not the best races I've ever looked at, it's not even the best race I've looked at this week and I've no real standout pick as my winner and as such won't be backing any to win.

I might however have a small E/W play on Lilikoi, if I can get a decent price about, but as of 2.50pm on Wednesday (early dart today, I've to get to a function!) there were no odds available; I'll update later tonight.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 03/05/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.50 Wolverhampton
  • 3.00 Wolverhampton
  • 3.50 Ascot
  • 5.00 Ascot
  • 6.40 Brighton
  • 7.50 Gowran Park

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated just one runner on course 1-year form and another two runners on 30-day form and even one of those is now not running!

Although it's nowhere near the best race of the day, we really should marry up our 'free' races with our feature of the day and see how James Ferguson's sole runner gets on down South. It's a second visit to the Coast on the bounce for us as we now take a look at the 6.40 Brighton, where Menalippe from the TS report will take on eight others over a left-handed seven furlongs on good to firm ground (as I suspected yesterday) in a Class 5, 3yo flat handicap...

The Toff and Quinault both won last time out and are raised 3lbs and 6lbs respectively for those runs. Featured horse Menalippe was third and has won two of her last five. Ghassan is a four-race maiden, as is Enborne, whilst Constitution has yet to win any of seven starts, making the frame just once and has been last home in each of his last three.

We've no handicap debutants or new headgeat etc on display, but four of them (Quinault, Enborne, Phoenix Glow & Estehwadh) all step up a class from the basement, despite the last three not even making the frame. All nine have raced in the last month with Quinault turned back out just six days after scoring at Chelmsford over 6f.

As is often the case at this time of year, Instant Expert has little data about a 3yo flat handicap, but we do see that both King of Ithaca and The Toff have won at this grade already and they've both won over today's trip, as have featured horse Menalippe and bottom weight Estehwadh...

Quite a lot of red there and both Constitution and Estehwadh are already looking like confirmed Class 6 types, whilst Enborne might benefit from a change of trip after four starts all at 7f.  The place stats. however, aren't quite as bleak...

...with a few places at class & trip, but Enborne has been found wanting here again whilst LTO winner The Toff is the eye-catcher. The Toff is drawn 3 of 9 here and whilst his graphic suggests a low draw is favoured...

...it doesn't really tell the whole story as stall-by-stall, you probably don't want stalls 1 or 2...

...but The Toff should be fine in stall3, as that 3 to 8 corridor looks favourite. Enborne suffers another blow here, being widest of all in #9. Those drawn highest have won in the past, though, but the heat map suggests they need to get out quickly and lead...

...but most running style/draw combos look like they'll have a chance here. LTO winner Quinault is drawn dead centre in box 5 and if he's a front runner, then he'll have the ideal pace/draw make-up, so let's check how he has been running...

He doesn't seem to be a front-runner per sé, but that prominent winning run LTO was easily his best performance to date, so he might well be further forward than the pace scores might suggest, but with at least half of the field looking like they might want to get on with it, we could have a quick one on our hands and getting on with it is the ideal way here at Brighton over 7f...

...and I'd suggest is a case of pace>draw here.

Summary

The obvious starting point is the fact we've two LTO winners and not a great deal of form elsewhere, but neither tick all the boxes. Quinault was beaten by seven lengths when last home of seven on his sole Flat appearance and was beaten by 11 lengths and 7.5 lengths on the A/W before getting off the mark at the fourth attempt last week. He's up 6lbs for that run and up in both class and trip.

As for The Toff, he started well last summer, finishing 3rd and 2nd on his first two starts, but was then placed just once in seven, including being last home twice, before arriving at this class/trip at Lingfield in late March, where on a more realistic mark of 67 he was second of nine and then finally got off the mark over the same track/trip three weeks later. He's at the same class/trip as that win a fortnight ago, but is up 3lbs for a three-quarter length success, so there's little room for error.

I suspect these will be the first two home, and then after them, you could suggest three, four or five similar types, but I'd be surprised if Menalippe wasn't on the premises at closing time. I'd be happy to back Menalippe on an E/W basis if I could get 8's or bigger and seeing as I haven't got that much separating Quinault & The Toff, I'd prefer the latter to win, because we'll get more value from the price.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 02/05/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Citizen Beneral and Broxi would be of most initial obvious interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 3.10 Nottingham
  • 3.20 Brighton
  • 4.00 Yarmouth
  • 7.00 Newcastle
  • 9.00 Newcastle

...from which, the 3.20 Brighton is the highest rated. It's a 10-runner, Class 3, fillies handicap over a left handed 1m2f on good ground that will be quicker/firmer in places and here's how they line up...

Rikona, She's Hot and Maid In Kentucky all won last time out and they are currently 2 from 4, 2 from 3 and 2 from 2 respectively. Crystal Estrella, Three Priests and Wisper all won two starts ago, Rich & Pure Gold both won three back and only Arenas Del Tiempo and Orange Martini are without a recent win. In fairness, the latter is only a three-race maiden, but the former has lost eleven on the spin since a win at Epsom in August 2021.

None of these raced at Class 3 last time around as Crystal Estrella, Rich both drop down one class, whilst Three Priests, Wisper, Maid In Kentucky, Pure Gold, Orange Martini all step up one level, but Rikona, Arenas Del Tiempo & She's Hot are all up two classes here.

Quite a few of these lack handicap experience, as Crystal Estrella, Three Priests and Pure Gold have only had prior hcp run, whilst She's Hot and Maid In Kentucky are both on handicap debut today. Two of the field (Wisper and Arenas Del Tiempo) have won here at Brighton before, both scoring over course and distance, whilst Crystal Estrella and Rokina have won elsewhere over this 1m2f trip.

Half of the field have raced inside the last two months, but Crystal Estrella, Wisper, She's Hot, Pure Gold and Orange Martini are coming back from breaks of 185 to 237 days and migfht well need a run. The last thing to note from the card is that the five three year olds (Rich, She's Hot, Maid In Kentucky, Pure Gold & Orange Martini) all get a whopping 15lbs weights allowance.

Other stats to note are that Maid In Kentucky has never raced on turf before, only Arenas Del Tiempo has raced at Class 3 before (she's 0 from 3), the two course and distance winner sare the only to to have raced here and that Rich, Pure Gold and Orange Martini are trying this trip for the first time...

This lack of Instant Expert data is part of my reluctance to play the Flat early doors, but I can't swerve it forever. We do have limited info here, but you can already suggest that Wisper might go well here, especially if it dries out more, as she's won three times on good firm, whilst Arenas Del Tiempo would also prefer it quicker with a 2 from 3 record on good firm, but a poor win return on good ground, but generally speaking her place records are good...

...so I wouldn't be too hasty to rule her out here. The forecast is for dry windy weather and that might just quicken the turf up for that pair, who both drawn high (8 & 10) here, which in the past has been a good place to run from...

...over a track/trip where hold-up horses have won their fair share of races, but prominent runners have tended to be most successful...

The fact that leaders make the frame most often, but win least often suggests they get picked off late on by the stalking prominent runners and based on this field's most recent efforts...

...that would be better news for Wisper than it would for Arenas Del Tiempo from those wide draws and this dominance of the prominent runner is starkly highlighted by the pace/draw heat map...

...which points firmly towards Maid In Kentucky and Crystal Estrella in stalls 6 & 7 with that mid-draw prominence, whilst Rokina and Pure Gold might well fill the low drawn hold-up role here, giving them a chance.

Summary

It's hard to get away from Maid In Kentucky, even if she hasn't yet raced on turf. She's in good form, seeking a hat-trick, she's got a reasonable opening mark of 82, she gets that 15lb allowance, has won at this trip and has he ideal pace/draw combination. So she'd be my pick here at a pretty fair 7/2 with Hills.

Elsewhere, she might well pull Crystal Estrella along with her and if she's not too rusty after seven months off, could well make the frame at 12's (Bet365) and another I liked as an E/W possible was Rikona, who is 3 from 7 and a previous distance winner and is also attractively priced at 12/1, although Three Priests might well beat one or both of them with a late run.

Racing Insights, Monday 01/05/23

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Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 1.35 Down Royal
  • 3.05 Kempton
  • 3.20 Down Royal
  • 3.35 Curragh
  • 3.40 Kempton
  • 3.47 Warwick

And of the three UK races above, I'm going with the 3.40 Kempton, as it has the widest variation in pace profiles, as you'll see shortly. The race itself is a 12-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right handed three miles (although rail movements do add another half furlong to this) on good ground...

Latitude and Duc de Beahchene both won last time out and both have finsihed 321 in their last three outings and they bring the best form to the table. Hiway One O Three has been in the frame in each of his last four, but Kap Auteuil has been pulled up in four of his last five.

Duc de Beauchene and Hiway One O Three both step up a class from Class 4 runs in the last three weeks, but Danny Kirwan and Dorking Ladwere both last seen at Class 1, failing to complete the race.

Twenty Twenty os our sole course and distance winner, but Danny Kirwan(2m NHF), Dorking Lad(2m5f Chs) and Up The Straight (2m5f Hrd) have also won here at Kempton, whilst only Danny Kirwan, Dorking Lad, Kap Auteuil, Duc de Beauchene and Hiway One O Three have yet to win at this kind of trip.

Most of the field have been out in the last two months, but Danny Kirwan, Fogot To Ask and Twenty Twenty have been off for ten weeks, five months and one year respectively.

Instant Expert tells us that Hiway One O Three has never raced at Class 3, but that all bar Good Boy Bobboy of his rivals have a Class 3 NH win under their belts. We also see below that only Movethechains and Duc de Beauchene are yet to win on good ground...

The only alarm bells I get from the above are with the trip not suiting Sporting John and Forgot To Ask and that Duc de Beauchene, Movethechains and Hiway one O Three are now rated some 11, 9 and 7 pounds heavier than their last win with both Latitude and Danny Kirwan 6lbs up. Those stats above relate to all NH form, but let's also have a quick look at chasing place form...

...which would suggest that Danny Kirwan, Latitude, Forgot To Ask, Dorking Lad, Movethechains and Twenty Twenty might well be the half of the field to focus our attentions on in a race that has in the past tended to suit those setting the pace...

...with those travelling further back having decreasing chances of both wins/places, the further off the pace they have travelled, which brings us to our daily feature : PACE. We monito and log the running style of every runner and award a score of 1 to 4 for each run, where 1 = held up, 2 = mid-division, 3 = raced prominently and 4= led or in leading group and our field's last four outings look like this...

Summary

I felt that the half of the field I wanted to be with was (alphabetically) Danny Kirwan, Latitude, Forgot To Ask, Dorking Lad, Movethechains and Twenty Twenty and the pace stats suggest we want to be as forward as we can and my selected half dozen have average pace scores of 3.25, 2.50, 1.25, 1.50, 1.25 and 1.75 from which I'm now only really interested in Danny Kirwan and Latitude as potential winners and it's no surprise from the stats etc above that they're 1 and 2 in the market.

They both last won at Class 3, they're both 6lbs higher than that win, but Latitude is three years younger and clearly progressive whilst unexposed over fences, having made just four starts, but finishing 3321 culminating in a win on chase handicap debut. Danny Kirwan is no mug, though and he has made the frame in half of his eight starts over fences, winning twice, but he's older, might need a run after ten weeks off and did look tired and beaten when falling two out at Ascot last time out.

I think Danny Kirwan will run his race and go well here, but I expect the market to have this right and Latitude (10/3) should beat Danny Kirwan here (5/1) and hopefully we'll get a forecast too. The rest look much of a muchness, but Duc de Beauchene (8/1) and Good Boy Bobby (also 8/1) might be the best of them. Bookies are paying four places here, so they might be E/W options.

Racing Insights, Saturday 29/04/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated a pair of qualifiers solely on the 1-year form filter as follows...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.15 Sandown
  • 2.35 Punchestown
  • 3.45 Haydock
  • 4.10 Ripon
  • 7.15 Doncaster
  • 8.15 Doncaster

...and my rules of no Irish and no Flat in April has somewhat backed me into a corner, leaving me with only the 2.15 Sandown to consider. This has 18 runners, taking me out of my comfort zone and my aim will be to find myself an E/W bet or two after If Not For Dylan was a 22/1 winner for us on Friday. This race is an 18-runner, Class 1, 5yo+ handicap chase (24 fences) over 3m4½f on good to soft ground that will be soft in places and here's the card...

Annsam, Moroder and Coolvalla all won last time out, whilst Kitty's Light, Broken Halo and Mucho Mas come here seeking a hat-trick of wins. Annsam is actually 2 from 3, Certainly Red is 3 from 4 and 4 from 6, Revels Hill has 2 wins and 4 places from 6, Moroder is 5 from 7, Coolvalla is 5 from 6 and with only Tea Clipper, Enrilo and Red Happy on fairly lengthy losing runs of 8, 8 and 11 races respectively, there's a fair amount of horses in form.

That said, two thirds of the field are up in class here as only half a dozen ran at Class 1 last time out, the highlight being Kitty's Light's success in the Scottish National at Ayr just a week ago. Of the class risers, four (Annual Invictus, Moroder, Organdi, Musical Slave) are up from Class 2, half a dozen (Annsam, Certainly Red, Revels Hill, Coolvalla, Broken Halo, Mucho Mas) raced at Class 3, whilst both D'Jango and Red Happy might struggle after being well beaten in Class 4 handicaps!

Court Master runs for the first time since a wind op and he's been off the track the longest at 307 days. Organdi returns from a six-month break, but the others have all been out in the last nine weeks, with Kitty's Light turned back out just a week after that triumph at Ayr and he'll probably be grateful for the half-mile step back in trip!

Revels Hill is the only one to win at this trip before, landing a chase at Taunton in mid-March 2022 four starts ago off 9lbs lower than today. We do have six former course winners, though, in the shape of Frodon (2m7f chase), Certainly Red (2m4f chase), Enrilo (2m4f hrd), Broken Halo(3m½f chase), Musical Slave (3m chase) and Mucho Mas (also 3m chase).

Further to the above details, Instant Expert informs me that Tea Clipper, Annual Invictus, D'Jango and Red Happy are a combined 0 from 27 over fences on good to soft / soft ground and that Organdi has never tackled such conditions. We're also told that aside from Frodon's brilliant record of 13 Class 1 chase wins, only four of his rivals have won at this grade, once each...

And on the simple basis of green is good and red isn't, there are concerns about Tea Clipper (going/class), Kitty's Light (class) Annual Invictus (going), Enrilo (class), Musical Slave (class), D'Jango (going) and Red Happy (going). Conversely, the likes of Annsam, Certainly Red, Moroder and Coolvalla should like the underfoot conditions and whilst Frodon clearly isn't the force he was, now that he's 11, he's certainly proven at this level.

However, as I'm looking for some decent priced E/W plays, we need to look at the place stats...

... I think it might serve us well to isolate the categories here as follows...

...where the names cropping up most are Kitty's Light, Musical Slave, Frodon and Revel's Hill, whilst the likes of Broken Halo, Certainly Red, Coolvalla, Enrilo and The Goffer all score respectably and it's this group, that I want to focus on from here...

Sadly, we again have little pace data to to work with here...

...but the small number of horses setting the pace have done pretty well, but I wouldn't be hanging my hat on those stats too much right now, although, it suggest that the veteran frodon might well enjoy himself again, based on my shortlist's recent performances...

Frodon looks like the one most likely to set the pace here and in a race where the bookies are paying six (yes, 6!) places, he has every chance of hanging on, especially coming here with a win and three third place finishes from his last five.

Summary

If i was a sentimental type, I'd be backing/willing Frodon to win this at a generally available 14/1 (5 places) or 12/1 (6 places), but I think he'll get beaten by the two market principals Kitty's Light and Revel's Hill, but I'd be happy to back the old warrior E/W here.

As for the others on my shortlist, I'd discount Enrilo on form, Broken Halo mighty struggle up two classes and 5lbs, but Certainly Red, Coolvalla and The Goffer all look more than capable of making the frame at 14's, 10's and 9's respectively, whilst Musical Slave might be the best value at 20/1 if he runs like he did when runner-up in this race last year, half a length ahead of Kitty's Light. I'll have a couple of shillings on him too.

Racing Insights, Friday 28/04/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded no qualifiers at all so it's a good job that this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.05 Perth
  • 3.00 Sandown
  • 4.00 Doncaster
  • 5.20 Chepstow
  • 5.30 Perth
  • 7.45 Punchestown

...from which I have chosen the first on the list, the Highland National. It's the 2.05 Perth, a 13-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase featuring 23 fences spread over 3m6½f on good to soft ground and here's how they line up...

As you can see, top-weight Court Master was due to run for the first time in ten months (during which he'd had a wind op) since being pulled up in a Listed race at Uttoxeter, but has been withdrawn from this contest, leaving us the baker's dozen competitors. He'll probably run in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on Saturday and this means that the entire field for this Perth race have all ran in the last twelve weeks with new top-weight Innisfree Lad seen as recently as nine days ago.

Silver In Disguise is our sole LTO winner, having scored over 3m½f at Wetherby earlier this month, but a few of his rivals have also won recently. Nearly Perfect is 3 from 7, Geryville is a regular placer, Fairlawn Flyer seems to win or be pulled up with four wins and 2 x P in his last six, whilst Concetto is 2 from 3, Destiny Is All is 3 from 7 and Return Fire is 2 from 6 as all of the field have won at least one of their last seven outings!

Planned Paradise, If Not For Dylan and Return Fire both now drop down from Class 2, but Fairlawn Flyer, Just Don't Know, Silver In Disguise (also up 5lbs) and Gentleman De Mai all step up a level from Class 4. Top-weight Innisfree Lad is the oldest here at 11, some 4yrs older and carrying 18lbs more than bottom-weight and joint youngest at 7, Return Fire.

None of this field have won over this trip, but Silver In Disguise won over 3m7f at Chepstow thirteen months ago. Other than that, Destiny In All's win over 3m3f at Ayr a year ago is the longest win of this field so far, although Fairlawn Flyer and If Not For Dylan have both won here at Perth before, albeit over at 3m½f hurdle and a 3m chase respectively.

The card tells us that couple of these are in first-time headgear, as Geryville is tongue-tied and Gentleman De Mai is visored, whilst Instant Expert says we have seven good to soft chase winners on display and half a dozen Class 3 chase winners, whilst Innisfree Lad is the only one to have scored at Class 2...

Innisfree Lad's record in this grade (1/13) is a worry, as is his 0 from 5 at 3m6f and beyond, but he is down to a reasonable mark, just a pound higher than his last win. Nearly Perfect has done well at Class 3 and  is 5lbs below his last win but all his best form is on soft ground. Geryville has won at both going and class but might be a little high in the weights.

Silver In Disguise poses a dilemma, as he stays the trip, but has a poor record at this level, as does If Not For Dylan. As can often be the case, the ones to consider might well be those without much relevant experience as there is a school of thought that backing horses trying something new is better than backing those that have failed repeatedly under set conditions. It's a thought, if nothing else! Perhaps, the place stats will open a door or two?

Here, you would expect to see plenty of green and regular placer Geryville catches the eye. He'll like the ground and has done well at this grade; Silver In Disguise and If Not For Dylan have struggled at Class 3, though. Destiny Is All has perfect percentage figures, as do Concetto and Gentleman de Mai off admittedly fewer runs.

And if we were to focus purely on green and amber stat percentages from the place form...

...then the five (because some bookies will pay five places here) that would interest me most from that would be (in card order) Innisfree Lad, Geryville, Concetto, If Not For Dylan and Destiny Is All. That said, getting this trip here over so many fences on good to soft ground isn't easy and sadly, we don't have enough relevant pace data to help us out, as there aren't many similar races to fall back on as shown here...

Summary

In such a competitive looking race with many runners in decent nick and a lack of relevant pace data, I'm going to fall back onto the place stats from earlier and stick with my five-runner shortlist of Innisfree Lad, Geryville, Concetto, If Not For Dylan and Destiny Is All. I feel that all of them stand a great chance of making the frame and I'll be checking the market to see of any are worth an E/W punt.

As for the winner, I think it's likely to be between Destiny Is All and Concetto and I really wouldn't like to try and split them if I'm honest and I'm not really surprised that they're at the top end of the market. My shortlist are currently (6.05pm) best priced at Innisfree Lad (14/1 4 places & 12/1 5 places), Geryville (8/1 both),  Concetto (13/2 & 11/2), If Not For Dylan (20/1 & 16/1) and Destiny Is All (13/2 & 6/1).

Destiny Is All and Concetto are a little short for my liking as E/W bets, but i wouldn't try to deter you from backing any or all of the other three.

Racing Insights, Thursday 27/04/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.10 Warwick
  • 4.25 Warwick
  • 5.00 Warwick
  • 5.30 Warwick
  • 6.35 Punchestown
  • 7.35 Taunton

And with an 80% chance of me steering this column towards Warwick, the second of the four there appeals most to me. It's a stayers' contest and the highest rated of the four, so let's look in at the 4.25 Warwick, a 10-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle taking in twelve flights of hurdles over 3m1f on good to soft ground...

Martha Brae is our sole LTO winner, scoring five weeks ago after a sequence of three runner-up finishes. Elsewhere the only LTO placer was Jubilee Express, seciond best in each of his last two, but did win three starts ago. Captain Morgs won two starts ago, Docpickedme is two from three and Regarding Ruth, Midnightreflection and Butler's Brief also all scored three races ago.

Conversely Gentleman At Arms, Bothwell Bridge and Ask A Honey Bee are winless in seven, six and six races respectively with Bothwell Bridge failing to complete four of his last six and Ask A Honey Bee having three incomplete runs from six.

Only three (Gentleman At Arms, Bothwell Bridge and Butler's Brief) ran at this Class 3 level last time out, as both Martha Brae and Jubilee Express are stepping up from Class 4. Docpickedme, Ask A Honey Bee and Midnightreflection all drop down from Class 2, whilst top-weight Captain Morgs and Regarding Ruth were both in Class 1 handicap action.

After finishing as a runner-up on handicap debut a month ago, Jubilee Express now has a second crack at it and he's one of eight runners to have had an outing in the last eight weeks, but Ask A Honey Bee and Butler's Brief are returning from breaks of five and six months respectively.

We've no former course and distance winners here, but Bothwell Bridge (2m3f hrd), Regarding Ruth (2m5f hrd) and Butler's Brief (2m5f hrd) have at least won on this track before and Docpickedme, Bothwell Bridge, Martha Brae, Regarding Ruth & Midnightreflection have all scored over a similar trip to this one.

For more stats, we can turn to Instant Expert to see that half of this field have won an NH race on good to soft ground and that seven of them have at least one win at Class 3. A deeper dive would also tell you that Captain Morgs is 2 from 5 at Class 2 and that the rest of the field are a combined 0 from 26 at that level...

That's a bit of a mixed bag and Gentelman At Arms looks weak off an admittedly small number of runs. None of them really stand out right now and maybe Jubilee Express' lack of relevant runs and therefore lack of defeats might actually be a positive, but let's look at place form to see if there are any pointers there...

Now, it's Bothwell bridge who looks weak and Jubilee Express' sole relevant outing saw him make the frame. Midnightreflection has good place stats and at just 2lbs higher than his last win and stalking at the foot of the weights, might well be one to consider from an E/W perspective.

Pace/tactics haven't had that much bearing on horses making the frame here in similar past races, but those held up for a late run have often struggled to win. They have made the frame often enough, but wins have been harder to come by from off the pace...

...which probably isn't great news for Ask A Honey Bee based on recent showings...

..and I think that if push came to shove, I'd probably want to be on one that was up with the pace out of trouble in a race featuring so many runners who have failed to see races out.

Summary

Based upon everything I've written above and the fact that I want to be on a runner that's up with the pace out of trouble, the obvious pair are Docpickedme and Jubilee Express. Now, Jubilee Express is the current (5.45pm) 11/4 favourite and I think that's a bit skinny for my liking, so I'm going to suggest a small E/W play on Docpickedme at 12/1 with Hills (3places, but 10/1 at Sky if you want the security of a fourth place). I also thought that, whilst not challenging for the win,  Midnightreflection wouldn't be a terrible E/W or place bet either and he's available at 18's (or 16/1 with 4 places).

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 26/04/23

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Wednesday's free GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss.

Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way! And as ever, we ask you to please refer to our User Guide for further information.

In addition to the TS report, we also have the following fully functional free racecards...

  • 3.00 Perth
  • 4.05 Perth
  • 4.53 Ludlow
  • 5.20 Punchestown
  • 6.45 Lingfield

My own personal settings for the TS report ...

...have actually generated the following...

...but as Sod's Law often prevails, none of my TS qualifiers are in a 'free' race so I'm going to see if Messrs McCain and Hughes stand any chance of getting Dreams of Home to repeat last year's win in the 2.30 Perth, a competitive-looking, 5-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase (12 fences) over a right-handed two miles on good to soft ground...

Sword of Fate was the only one of these to win last time out and he's the only one stepping up in class. Corrigeen Rock drops in class after failing to make the frame for the first time in five starts, whilst Ashington has been placed on each of his last two outings.

All five have won over today's trip and both top and bottom weight have won over course and distance; Dreams of Home landed this race last year off 2lbs higher than today and Sword of Fate (carrying 24lbs less than top-weight) scored over track/trip way back in September 2021!

Dream of Home wears a tongue tie for the first time and probable outsider Casa Tall wears first-time cheekpieces in attempt to regain past form after a poor run of form, failing to make the frame in any of his last nine, failing to complete three of them. All bar Ashington have raced in the last three to five weeks, but he has had three months rest since a hurdles outing at Sedgefield and he hasn't tackled a fence since early December 2022.

DREAMS OF HOME won this race last year off a mark of 131 and then defied a 4lb rise and a 7.5 month break to win again at Kelso in December. hasn't quite been as good since, but now on a career-low mark and could easily bounce back.

CORRIGEEN ROCK finished 1122 over fences this season before a step up to Class 2 proved too much at Ascot earlier this month, as he was beaten by some 19 lengths. He's back down in class here, but only eased by a pound, so he might have to wait to pick up some winning form.

ASHINGTON has raced 42 times so far, but only 4 times over fences, with results reading 51P2 with the last of those races coming twenty weeks ago. He might need reacquainting with these bigger obstacles and I fear that 2m could be too sharp for him.

CASA TALL failed to win any of seven over hurdles, but is three from seventeen over fences, but was three from seven! He last won 18 months ago and with a run since then reading 25FB3664U4, I'd be surprised to see him back in the winner's enclosure here, despite the first-time cheekpieces.

SWORD OF FATE won a Class 5 chase here off a mark of 101 over 2m4½f almost a year ago, but then lost eleven on the bounce before a win last time out at Wetherby after his mark had finally relented to 100. If he runs like he did last time out, then he could well defy a 5lb rise and he did win off 106 over course and distance back in September 2021, but he rarely puts two good runs back to back and the race at Wetherby LTO did pretty much fall apart, so i'm not sure about him going in again here.

Instant Expert suggests that the top two on the card might well be the ones to focus on...

...and Casa Tall's record on good to soft puts a further red mark against his chances. Sword of Fate likes it here at Perth, but has struggled in this grade with his best form coming at Class 4. Top weight and featured runner, Dreams of Home is actually 1 from 2 over two miles, but has only won one of five when asked to go another half furlong, but he is a good 6lbs lower than his last win, whilst Corrigeen Rock is 8lbs higher than a winning run from early December.

Recent pace profiles from this handful of runners suggest that Casa Tall might get cut adrift if he's not careful...

...as there might be a fair bit of early pace on, but that alone wouldn't spell the end of his chances, as there doesn't appear to be too much of a pace bias from similar past races...

...and when there's little pace bias over fences then form and ability come tot he fore and that's what will speel the end of Casa Tall's chances!

Summary

Casa Tall isn't good enough to live with the other four in my opinion, but you could probably make a case for any of the others. That said, Ashington hasn't jumped a fence for a good while and would probably prefer a longer trip, whilst Sword of Fate is up 5lbs and has hardly been reliable at putting two good runs together.

So, almost by default, we're with the two that scored best on Instant Expert and featured horse Dreams of Home seems a more likely winner here based on the weights, but Corrigeen Rock should give him a decent race.

The competitive nature of the contest is shown by Hills (only market open at 3.40pm) early prices...

...but it'd be Dreams of Home to retain the race for me.

Racing Insights, Friday 21/04/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have still produced three qualifiers...

And our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.05 Newbury
  • 2.50 Fontwell
  • 3.08 Cork
  • 4.30 Fontwell
  • 4.50 Cork
  • 6.35 Exeter

Both Ayr runners on my H4C report go in Class 2 contests, but it's the latter of the two races that interests me most, as E/W backers can get three places in the 3.35 Ayr, where the in-form Charm Offensive takes on eight other rivals in a Class 2, 4yo+ Mares Handicap Hurdle over a left handed 3m½f (after a +60 yards rail movement) on good to soft ground...

Only Jasmiwa won last time out, but that was a Class 4 contest and she's up two grades here. That said, she'll be in good heart, having won two of her last three. Featured horse Charm Offensive has three wins and two runner-up finishes from her last five outings and now steps up one class, whilst Great Snow makes a second handicap appearance after finishing third in a Newbury Grade 2 contest on handicap debut four weeks ago. Aubis was pulled up in that same race on her handicap bow and now also drops in class.

Bellatrixsa and Aurora Thunder are winless in five and eight NH races respectively and whilst the former drops in class here, it'll be tough for the latter stepping up from Class 4. Sabrina has made the frame in seven of her last eight outings, but also steps up in class here. Charm Offensive might well need a run here, after a 113-day absence but aside from last year's winner Get A Tonic coming back from two months off, the rest of this field have all raced since the start of March.

Winning this race last year makes Get A Tonic, the only course and distance winner in the field, as Charm Offensive's two wins here were at 2m4½f/2m5f and Aurora Thunder is the only other course winner, having also won over 2m4½f. Great Snow and Jasmiwa have won at this trip in the past, though and stamina may be the key here.

All the above data comes from your racecard above, but clicking the Instant Expert tab will also reveal four previous NH winners on good to soft ground and just the one previous Class 2 success...

Get A Tonic is that sole Class 2 winner, courtesy of winning this race last year, but she has failed to place in the three defeats at this level. Sabrina has made the frame in two of three Class 2 runs and Aurora Thunder managed to place in five of her nine efforts, but a 0 from 9 win record is worrying, as is her 0 from 6 at the trip. If we looked a little closer at place form...

...we'd probably not fancy Sabrina on good to soft ground and we'd still have questions about Aurora Thunder staying the trip. Charm Offensive's record here is exceptional, but she has a career record of just one win from five at any trip beyond 2m5f, but she has made the frame in three of the four defeats.

I suggested that stamina could well be the key here and there's quite a few way this field have approached their recent outigs and if we consider how they've raced in their last three contests...

...you'd expect class-dropper Great Snow to be setting the pace here, closely followed by Bellatrixsa and Sabrina, whilst last year's winner Get A Tonic looks like he has been waited with of late, despite that win here coming from a prominent racing position. Last year's tactics have proven to be more successful than a hold-up approach here...

...and she'd probably be best served by a switch in tactics here, if she's to succeed, as might well Charm Offensive.

Summary

For me, the one to beat is Great Snow. She ran really well to finish third of fifteen in a Grade 2 handicap four weeks ago and with her front-running tactics could be difficult to catch/beat. She's unexposed and has already won over three miles and the only surprise to me is that she's available at 9/2 with Bet365.

As for who might chase her home, Get A Tonic won this last year, Charm Offensive loves it here and both should go well, but wouldn't be E/W bets at just 6/1 and 9/2 respectively. I don't normally dip below 8/1 for an E/W pick and based on that Sabrina would be the likeliest. She'll be up with the pace, has gone well at class/trip before and if it dries out any, she could edge one of the others out for a place.

Racing Insights, Thursday 20/04/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.35 Newmarket
  • 4.25 Cheltenham
  • 4.30 Ripon
  • 4.35 Tramore
  • 5.05 Ripon

And it's back to Jumps HQ for another chase for this column, but this time the 4.25 Cheltenham is a 6-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ Mares/ handicap chase, taking in 13 fences over a left-handed 2m½f on good ground...

Hawthorn Cottage was the only one of the six to taste victory last time out and she's two from five. Pink Legend has a win and a place from her last two, Doyannie has a win and two places from her last three, but Fortunes Melody and Lost Connections are winless in six and seven races respectively. The former, however, is a regular placer but the latter is a seven-race maiden, who now runs from 19lbs out of the handicap. Doyannie runs from 12lbs out of the handicap and I'd say that rules both of them out of this one.

Of the remaining four, none raced at this grade last time out, as Fortunes Melody and Hawthorn Cottage step up a level from Class 4, whilst Royale Margaux was fourth of nine at Class 2 and Pink Legend was a placer in a Grade 2, having previously won a Listed event. All bar Royale Margaux have won in the UK at this type of trip, whilst both Pink Legend and Hawthorn Cottage have already won here at Cheltenham (2m4½f chase and 2m1f bumper respectively).

All four have been seen inside the last five weeks and there's nothing new to report about them re: headgear or yard changes etc, but I can add that Instant Expert says that four of the field have a good ground UK chase win, but only one has won at Class 3...

...but that doesn't count Pink Legend's three Class 1 wins or the fact that both her and Fortunes melody have also won at Class 2. Royale Margaux is 0 from 3 here in the UK, but did win 7 of 13 in France including a Listed chase and hurdles wins at Listed & Grade 1!

That would suggest she's definitely got something about her, but it just hasn't quite worked out yet for her since leaving David Cottin's yard in France for Tom Symonds' Herefordshire base. Her pace profile (below) also raises the possibility that the yard haven't really decided on what tactics would work best for her either...

This indecisiveness, allied to the fact that front-runners have excelled in similar past races...

...could make this another frustrating afternoon for her and her team, as Pink Legend, Fortunes Melody and Hawthorn Cottage look set to fight it out.

Summary

If we are to focus on those three pace-setters (Pink Legend, Fortunes Melody and Hawthorn Cottage), this is probably Pink Legend's race to win/lose. Down two classes from a solid Grade 2 third place at last month's Festival, the drop in trip will help, as will the non-appearance of a couple of quality Irish mares.

I'm not a big fan of backing short-priced favourites and 6/4 looks a bit skinny, but she should be winning this relatively easily. As for the runner-up or forecast horses, I'd say that Fortunes Melody was better treated at the weights than Hawthorn Cottage, who'd probably want some rain to come anyway.

So, it's the 6/4 Pink Legend to beat the 5/1 Fortunes Melody for me, based on the stats above, but if Royale Margaux decides to go with the pace, she could do very well too.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 19/04/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.30 Cheltenham
  • 1.50 Newmarket
  • 2.50 Beverley
  • 7.15 Gowran park

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

14-day form

30-day form

Course 1-year form

Course 5-year form

and with the in-form Garry Moore, as featured on my 14-day form report from Trainer Stats, having a runner in the first of our 'free' races and that race being a Class 1 affair, it makes sense for me to look at the 1.30 Cheltenham, a 12-runner, 5yo+, Grade 2 handicap chase (16 fences) over a left handed 2m4½f on good ground that will be softer in places...

FORM : Herbiers won last time out, Gemirande is two from four, Heltenhm has won three on the spin and Presentandcounting is three from four and 4 wins (+2 places) from his last six. Cilaos Emery, Captain Tom Cat and Deyrann de Carjac are winless in 7, 7 and 15 races respectively.

CLASS : Only five of these (Caribean Boy, Coole Cody, Gemirande, Presentandcounting & Deyrann de Carjac) ran at Class 1 last time out, as Cilaos Emery, Heltenham, Super Six, Captain Tom Cat & Zhiguli all raced at Class 2 with Herbiers & Unanswered Prayers now both stepping up two classes.

ANYTHING NEW? Cilaos Emery runs in a handicap for only the second time and wears a first-time tongue tie, whilst Caribean Boy runs for the first time since a wind op.

COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : All bar top weight Cilaos Emery have won over a similar trip to this one, whilst Coole Cody and Unanswered Prayers are both former course and distance winners and Captain Tom Cat has won a 2m5½f hurdle here at HQ.

DAYS SINCE RUN : Presentandcounting last raced 194 days ago, whilst Caribean Boy and Deyrann de Carjac return from breaks of 81 and 108 days with the remainder of the field having run in the last 10 weeks. Captain Tom Cat's runner-up finish LTO was just nine days ago!

Elsewhere, Instant Expert tells me that Heltenham, Super Six and Zhiguli have yet to win a good ground chase and that only four of the field have landed a Class 1 pot over fences...

Others to note are Deyrann de Carjac's poor return at Class/Course.Distance and Caribean Boy's low success at Class 1. Plenty of these are racing off marks 10 to 18lbs lower than their last win, but that's a sign of poorly they have been running of late, although Presentandcounting is in great form over hurdles right now, but runs some 13lbs lower than his last chase win, suggesting he could go well if converting that form to the bigger obstacles. Conversely, form horse Heltenham is up 11lbs for his latest win, making him some 27lbs higher than before his three-race winning streak.

Heltenham and Presentandcounting couldn't approach their races any more differently than they do, though. The former is likely to leave a run for the line until fairly into procedings, whilst Presentandcounting loves to race from the front as does another in-form runner, Gemirande...

...and with the likes of Coole Cody, Unanswered Prayers, Cilaos Emery & Captain Tom Cat also showing a fondness for front running, there could be some fireworks early doors in a contest that has favoured those racing further forward than mid-division...

Summary

I think that Heltenham might well be the best horse in the race on a level playing field, but he'll find it tougher here up in class, up 11lbs and racing from the back of the field with a strong pace ahead of him. That doesn't mean he can't win, of course, but at odds of around 3/1, I'd be reluctant to chance my money.

However, two other form horses do like to race prominently and as such Gemirande might be a better value win bet at 6/1 after only missing out by a head in the Greatwood Gold Cup last time out, whilst if Presentandcounting can transfer some of his hurdles form to these larger obstacles, then his 16/1 ticket could be a decent E/W option, especially if you've got accounts with SkyBet and/or Unibet, as they're paying five places!

Racing Insights, Tuesday 18/04/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...where Mister X would be of immediate interest. We do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.05 Tipperary
  • 2.25 Newmarket
  • 3.50 Tipperary
  • 4.25 Tipperary
  • 6.00 Southwell

They say it's a long way to Tipperary and I've no desire to go racing there, a decision allied to my steadfast unwillingness to consider Flat racing in April leads me/us to either the last of the 'free' races or to look at Mister X and as the latter runs in what looks a marginally better race on paper, we're off to the 2.00 Lingfield, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo, A/W handicap over a left handed 7f on standard polytrack...

None of these won last time out, but Albert Cee, Topo Chico and The Toff were all runners-up, whilst Mister X's win two starts ago here over course and distance is the only recent win from any of these runners. In fact his rivals are a combined career 0 from 34!

Ferensby and Trilby head the weights and both drop in class for their handicap debuts, whilst Aurora Dawn also tackles handicap company for the first time. Albert Cee and Topo Chico both step up in class, despite never having won a race at any class. As Mister X is the sole winner in the field, it's obvious that he'd be the only one to have won at either track or trip and he did win over course and distance two starts ago.

Aurora Dawn has been off the track for almost twelve weeks, but the remainder have all been out since the start of March with three of them running this month already.

Instant Expert won't show many wins, of course, but it might show who has tackled similar conditions and failed...

Mister X should relish the conditions off just 1lb higher than his last win, whilst red flags are raised for Topo Chico for going/class/distance and The Toff for class/distance, but maybe the place stats will show them in a better light...

...and thankfully for all bar Aurora Dawn, that does appear to be the case. Mister X does still look well set, but Topo Chico has better percentage figures for going/class/distance with the obvious caveat that he's still a maiden after nine races.

Mister X's apparent supremacy is tempered, however, by the fact that stall1 has been the worst performing stall over 7f on the A/W here at Lingfield in 7-runner races...

...and that data isn't great news for Topo Chico out in box seven either, so much will depend on the pace/tactics of the race. Those races above have tended to be dominated by those willing to race from the front...

...with hold-up horses faring worst of all and if we look at how this field has approached recent (largely unsuccessful) outings...

...suggesting that not only is Topo Chico badly drawn, he might also need to pass six runners to win this. Mister X looks like he'll be up with the pace and his course/distance experience might well come into play here.

Summary

It looks a very open race between seven pretty average horses and with his profile, I'm really surprised that Mister X is the 14/1 outsider of the field with Bet365 at 5.40pm.

None of his rivals have convinced me enough to back them, so I'd be looking at a small E/W play on The Shortlist horse Mister X at 14's.

Racing Insights, Monday 17/04/23

/in /by

No column for the last two days of last week, as I was travelling through Europe to Crete, where I am now on their Easter Sunday. Enough of that, though, now back to work!

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 3.20 Kelso
  • 4.40 Redcar
  • 5.15 Tramore
  • 5.25 Windsor
  • 5.40 Kelso

A handful of races for you to look at, but for me my dislike of April Flat / Irish / Bumper races leaves me with Hobson's Choice, the 3.20 Kelso! That said, it's a decent enough contest on paper, despite being a small field. The withdrawal of Methodtothemadness means that last year's winner and top weight Bavington Bob only has four rivals for this Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left handed 2m7½f. They'll have seventeen fences to clear on good to soft ground and here's the card...

None of these managed to win last time out, but both Marown and Domandlouis were runners-up and the former is now winless in eight, whilst Bavington Bob's win in this race last year was his last success and he's now on a losing streak of seven, but he is the sole course and distance winner in the field.

Of the others, Marown won a chase over 3m1f at Wetherby, whilst Saint Arvans and Domandlouis have both previously won here at Kelso over hurdles (2m½f & 2m5f respectively). Domandlouis is, however, up two classes here, whilst Bavington Bob drops down from Class 2, where five of his last seven runs/defeats have been.

Saint Arvans is turned out after just nine days rest, whilst Slanelough hasn't been seen for over 14 weeks.

Instant Expert suggests that last year's win by Bavington Bob might not have been a fluke as he would appear to be best suited by the conditions expected here...

Marown seems to have struggled at this grade over fences and if we're honest, he just hasn't won often enough since starting his career with a bumper win and two hurdles successes. Domandlouis hasn't much experience under today's conditions, but a line of red is less than encouraging. Bavington Bob is clearly the one at class/trip that they'd have to beat and the report of last year's triumph says...held up, headway on outer over 3 out, ridden in 2nd under 2 out and soon challenged, led last, ran on well and pulled clear flat, won comfortably by nine lengths...

His recent pace profile suggests that he's likely to be waited with once again...

...whilst the pace-setter is expected to be Slanelough, who has made all to win four of his last ten over fences, but it should be noted that he's 0 from 9 beyond 2m4f!

Leaders haven't had it all their own way in small field chases here at Kelso, though, but they have performed significantly better than hold-up horses, suggesting that Bavington Bob's success last season might have been a rare exception to the norm...

...stats that would appear to hand the initiative to Domandlouis, Saint Arvan & Marown.

Summary

Marown is the relatively short-priced favourite here at 15/8, but he's 2lbs heavier than when beaten over 2m4f last time out and I should point out that he lost his previous two by 33 and 47 lengths respectively when asked to run three miles, so 15/8 is too skinny for me.

Domandlouis is next best in the betting at 9/4, but he was beaten by 7.5 lengths over this trip last time out and is now up two classes, so it might well be right time/right place for last year's winner, Bavington Bob. Instant Expert says he'll relish the conditions most, he gets the track and trip and has a good record at Class 3. He's back to his last winning mark and although the pace profile casts doubts, it's not as though he'll have a wall of traffic ahead of him, there are only five runners here.

BB is currently priced at 7/2 with Hills and whilst I thought we might get a little more juice in the price than that, he'd be the one that represented best value here to me.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 13/04/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.45 Newcastle
  • 3.30 Aintree
  • 5.30 Chelmsford
  • 8.30 Chelmsford

The best of those races is undoubtedly up here in the North West, where it's almost inconceivable that the 1/7 priced Constitution Hill would get beat, after winning all five of his Grade 1 starts to date with an average winning margin of over 14 lengths, but with all his rivals being priced up at 14/1 or longer, we could pick ourselves up a nice E/W bet or forecast from the 3.30 Aintree, a 6-runner, Grade 1, 4yo+ hurdle race over a left-handed 2m4f (+62 yds rail movement)...

CONSTITUTION HILL is 5 from 5 in Grade 1 contests without really breaking sweat. Yes, he's up in trip by the best part of 3 fulrongs, but the manner of his last two victories suggests another easy win.

I LIKE TO MOVE IT has won a Class 1 handicap and a Grade 2 contest this season, but was only 6th of 7 and 34 lengths behind Constitution Hill at Cheltenham last time out with the re-opposing Zanahiyr three places and 21 lengths ahead of him. he wouldn't be a contender for the top 2 on that run, but he has won here in the past, landing a bumper on debut back in November 2020.

SCEAU ROYAL wears cheekpieces for the first time today after going down by just a length and a half in a grade 2 event at Fontwell last time out. he was third here in 2022's Melling Chase and has won three grade 2 hurdles, but hasn't proven himself in seven efforts at this level.

SHARJAH might not be the horse he was, but he's won seven Grade 1 hurdle races in an illustrious career and was beaten by less than 3 lengths (4th of 24) in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham. You know he'll run his race, virtually all of his career has been over a two mile trip.

ZANAHIYR was running a big race in this contest a year ago when falling at the last under pressure from the eventual winner Epatante who re-opposes here. Another similar effort puts him right in the mix for a place, especially after getting within 13 lengths of Constitution Hill at Cheltenham last time out. Not many have got that close and the trip shouldn't be an issue.

EPATANTE is the only mare in the race and gets a useful 7lb concession. She is, of course a course and distance winner, courtesy of winning this very race last year. She beat all bar stablemate Constitution Hill in both the Fighting Fifth and Christmas Hurdle last winter before a routine win in a Doncaster Grade 2 in late January. She wasn't at her best at the Cheltenham festival, but reunited with her stablemate here could see another Nicky Henderson big-race 1-2.

At this point, I've got the battle for silver as a 2-horse contest between Zanahiyr and Epatante, but let's check collateral form via Instant Expert...

...which pretty much speaks for itself and is a tick for the mare Epatante, who also comes out on top on place form...

Based on recent pace profiles, I wouldn't be surprised if the favourite was allowed to set the tempo of the contest in afield lacking an out and out front runner...

...and I suppose the key here might be to see if you could stop him from running too far clear. The chances are that he'll be allowed to dominate, giving us a 5-runner contest for the £53k runner-up prize. As it happens, similar small field races here have been kind to those 'chasing' the leader(s)...

...although I suspect the chase will be at a distance here. Hold-up horses have done well enough too and there's not really much to choose between the bottom four on the pace graphic. I Like To Move It might well be the one who tries to go with the fav, but he weakened late on during his only other effort at this trip and going off too quickly would end his chances here.

Summary

Barring a disaster, Constitution Hill should be cantering home well ahead of the field. Is 1/7 value or not? I'll let you decide for yourselves, but at the stakes I play at, it's not worth bothering. The race for second, however, could be fascinating between Zanahiyr and Epatante with the latter hopefully prevailing. She's (LTO aside) in good nick, seems to run well whenever her stablemate  Constitution Hill is around and is proven at track/trip. Both contenders are priced at 14/1, but Epatante shades it for me.

My 1-2-3 would be Constitution Hill/Epatante/Zanahiyr with me going E/W on the mare and doing the forecast.