Tag Archive for: Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Thursday 25/05/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.50 Wolverhampton
  • 5.20 Chelmsford
  • 7.30 Limerick
  • 7.42 Sandown
  • 8.52 Chelmsford

The Sandown race is the only UK flat race on that list and it's also by far the highest rated. Sadly it is a small field and the bookies already think that it's a two-horse race at best including a pretty short favourite, but they're not always right, are they? I'm not saying that I won't end up agreeing with them, but if one of the two market leaders falter, then there's the chance of a decent-priced E/W placer in the 7.42 Sandown, a six-runner, Group 3, 4yo+ Flat contest over a right-handed 1m2f on good ground...

CASH has only raced four times to date and was only beaten by a short head here over course and distance in the Gr3 Classic trial 13 months ago. Came back from a five month break three weeks ago to run second in an Ascot Listed race, three quarters of a length behind Chindit, who was then second in last weekend's Gr1 Lockinge.

CHICHESTER won a Class 2 race at Newcastle back in January and has been a runner-up in two races since. He looks a useful performer at that level, but this is big step up in quality, although he has won over this trip.

CLAYMORE had a good 21/22 campaign, winning at Class 4 on debut and then was a runner-up and a winner at Group 3 in April/June of last year, before only managing to finish 4th of 5 in the group 2 York Stakes ten months ago. He hasn't raced since then and may well need the run. His win in Ascot's Hampton Court Stakes was over today's trip, though.

DESERT CROWN comes here having won all three career starts. He landed a Class 4 maiden at Nottingham on his only run as a 2yr old, before landing the Gr2 Dante and the Epsom Derby last season. I don't personally think last year's Derby has worked out well for subsequent winners, but if this one is ready to go first up after virtually a year off, then he's likely to be the one to catch.

HUKUM was also last seen landing a Group 1 prize at Epsom back in June 2022, as he came home almost 4.5 lengths clear in the Coronation Cup. He's a fabulous horse who has won 8 of his last 12 starts, but has had a serious leg injury and might well find 1m2f a bit sharp here, with most of his best form coming at 1m4f to 1m6f

SOLID STONE won back to back Group 3 contests in August/September 2021 before a 230-day break. He came off that break to win first time out in the Gr2 Huxley Stakes at Chester just over a year ago, but failed to kick on in three races since and may well need a run after another break. This trainer/jockey combo won this race last season, but stablemate Desert Crown must be the yard number 1 here, even if Solid Stone is the only former course winner on display.

Feature of the day is Instant Expert and it adds the following those details above...

Whilst that doesn't necessarily provide us with a winner, it does give me added confidence when I say that this shouldn't be Chichester's day. He has only won 2 of 19 on turf and both were on quicker ground than this, he probably wants a shorter trip too. Cash also has a fair swathe of red, but off just 1 or 2 races, I'll not write him off just yet.

With a small field over a non-sprint trip, I wouldn't expect any real draw bias here and whilst the stats might initially look like high draws have the best of it, the raw data tells another story in my eyes...

We're looking at six runners, so I'd take the data for stalls 6 & 7 as one entity with a win ratio of 17.39% and a place return of 30.43%, which would suggest that there's not a great deal of difference is the stats for stalls 1, 3, 4 and 6. In such cases, we have to treat the figures for stalls 2 and 5 to be anomalous, as there's no plausible reason for it being down to the draw. The race could however, hinge on how the race unfolds and based on the field's most recent outings...

...I'd say that Claymore is our likely leader with Solid Stone and Hukum the ones to chase him early. All eyes will be on Desert Crown, who will probably let that trio have a scrap early doors before attempting to put the race to bed later on. Cash and Chichester look like being waited with and the last two winners of this race both came from a hold-up position.

Summary

It's hard to see Desert Crown not winning here, based on his short career so far. The only potential problem is the fact that he hasn't raced for some considerable time. That said three of his rivals are also coming off a break. My pockets aren't deep enough, however to back him at best-price 4/7 to make it worth my while, so no win bet for me.

Of the rest, I think Hukum is the best horse, but I'm not keen on him here after a lengthy absence whilst quite seriously injured. The trip is probably too short for him and I think that 7/2 is far too skinny. I hope I'm wrong and that he goes well, because I do like him, but can't take him at those odds.

I've already ruled Chichester out, Solid Stone disappointed in his last three unplaced runs, so it's the front-running Claymore or hold-up type Cash from here. Claymore might well do too much up front in the early could end up feeling the effects of a ten-month break, but Cash has raced recently, is in good form and will be held-up like the last two winners. He's also likely to get towed into the race by Desert Crown, so I'm going Cash at 8/1 E/W plus the forecast with Desert Crown.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 24/05/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.10 Warwick
  • 2.20 Ayr
  • 3.40 Yarmouth
  • 4.50 Warwick
  • 7.20 Southwell

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have only generated runners based on short-term trainer form for me to consider...

...and of the five 'free' races and the three TS report races, Glorious Zoff runs in the highest rated, the 3.50 Warwick, a 12-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed two miles on good ground...

Disappointingly for a twelve-runner Class 3 field, only bottom weight Izayte won last time out, but Sea The Clouds has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last four outings. Chaos Control won two starts ago, Postmark won three back and Hurricane Ali ago. The other seven runners are winless in five or more runs.

Only four of these raced at this level last time with plenty moving class here. Hurricane Ail & Chaos Control are both down two classes after runs at Class 1 (hcp) and Grade 1 respectively, whilst Glorious Zoff drops down from Class 2. We also have five runners stepping up from Class 4; Mascat, Sea The Clouds, Coolnaugh Haze, Postmark and Izayte.

Glorious Zoff runs for the first time since wind surgery and it's handicap debut day for both Chaos Control and Postmark, whilst it's Sea The Clouds second attempt at landing a handicap. Mascat has been off track the longest at 195 days during which he left Joe Tizzard's yard for new handler Syd Hosie. Two others, For Pleasure (114d) and Sea The Clouds (184d), are also coming off lengthy breaks to challenge those who have already been in action since the start of April.

Glorious Zoff and top weight J'ai Froid are the only two yet to win at a similar trip to this one, but the latter is at least one of just two former Warwick winners, having scored here in a Class 3 handciap hurdle over 3m2f on soft ground back in March 2021. The only track winner is bottom weight Izayte who won here over course and distance three weeks ago off 6lbs and one class lower than today to get off the mark at the eighth time of asking.

Instant Expert adds to those stats by informing us of four previous Class 3 NH winners and also tells us that four of this field have yet to win on good ground...

For Pleasure actually won a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham in November 2020, before making the frame in a Grade 1 at the 2021 Cheltenham festival, but has been in steady decline since, as shown by the fact that he's now some 21lbs lower than his last winning mark. Most of this field have handled good ground well enough, but Glorious Zoff is 0 from 5, the same as Coolnaugh Haze's record at Class 3. For Pleasure has failed to make the frame in three visits to Warwick and has a really poor record at this trip.

Finest View has some good numbers despite not winning for a year, but there's not much winning form on offer here. Hopefully the place stats will tell us more...

There's definitely a bit more consistency there, but Glorious Zoff is still poor on good ground and For Pleasure doesn't like the trip, but overall the ones who look best from a placing perspective are...

...not withstanding the fact that Mascat hasn't raced for over six months and is still 8lbs higher than his last win seven starts ago. His record over hurdles, however, reads 13812 and according to recent outings, I'd not be surprised if he wasn't setting the tempo of the race from the front here with natural front-runner For Pleasure...

...and leaders have an excellent win record here over this going, course and distance...

...whilst prominent runners also have a great chance of running on for a place, which is good news for Chaos Control, Sea The Clouds and Coolnaugh Haze.

Summary

The four that I'm most interested in here are Mascat, Chaos Control, Sea The Clouds and Coolnaugh Haze. And I think Chaos Control is the most likely to succeed. He wasn't disgraced at all when 6th of 11 in the Grade 1 Anniversary Hurdle at Aintree last month and did win by 22 lengths at Market Rasen two starts ago. He looks like he might well be leniently treated here off an opening mark of 123.

The other trio are all more than capable of making the frame and with most bookies paying four places, they'd certainly be of interest from an E/W perspective. Sadly no odds were available at 4pm, so I had to revisit the piece later to check prices. Chaos Control was never long enough for me to go E/W, but I took 4-place E/W options about Mascat, Sea The Clouds and Coolnaugh Haze.

 

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 23/05/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the first three would all be worth a second look.

As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.15 Punchestown
  • 3.23 Brighton
  • 4.10 Wolverhampton
  • 4.30 Huntingdon
  • 7.50 Hexham
  • 8.20 Hexham

It's not often that we get a horse scoring 15 on TS featuring in one of our 'free' races, but they've aligned here and whilst it's not the best race we'll ever look at, we really should look at Major Gatsby and the 3.23 Brighton,  an 11-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 7f on good firm ground...

It's not unusual for a Class 6 field to contain no LTO winners and that's sadly the case here, but Fieldsman was a runner-up just 11 days ago, whilst both Mount Mogan and Amathus both finished third most recently inside the last three weeks. As for 'recent' wins, only joint top weight King of War, Shalfa and Diamond Cottage have scored in their last five outings.

Only River Wharfe, Fieldsman, Diamond Cottage and Sir Sedric raced (and were beaten, of course) at this lowly grade last time out, as the other seven all drop down from Class 5 and for bottom weight Dazzerling, this is is his first run for Phil McEntee, having left Laura Mongan's yard in the last three weeks. He also wears a hood for the first time, whilst Spirit Warning is in first-time blinkers and Sir Sedric will wear cheekpieces for the first time. In fact only Fieldsman runs with no headgear/equipment at all!

Whilst Major Gatsby was our featured runner from The Shortlist, he's not the only former course and distance winner on display here. As it happens, only Mount Mogan, Spirit Warning, Sir Sedric and Dazzerling have yet to win over this track and trip, but all bar Dazzerling have at least scored over 7f elsewhere.

We've a big spread of age/weight here today as the 11yr old Fieldsman takes on four 4 yr olds (top three in the weights and the bottom weight) in a field where King of War and Major Gatsby are rated some 18lbs better than Dazzerling.

Major Gatsby, however, might well need a run after a break of almost 20 weeks as he now tackles a group of horses where most of them have raced in the last four weeks, apart from Sir Sedric and Spirit Warning who return from absences of 101 and 354 days respectively and the latter could certainly be excused for a bit of rustiness.

More stats are available to us when we click the Instant Expert tab, such as seven past good to firm winners and one tackling the going for the first time as well as seven (not the same seven!) Class 6 winners. We also have one Class 2 winner, three at Class 3, three at Class 4 and six Class 5 winners...

...and in a pretty open but fairly mediocre contest, it is indeed Major Gatsby who catches the eye on the win stats, but without any real standout star above, we might need the place stats to help us whittle the field down...

and fragmented by column...

If we hen applied the green = 3pts and amber = 1pt rule from the Shortlist criteria, then we'd have Dazzling and Shalfa on a maximum of 12pts, followed by King of War on 10pts. next best on the list would then be Fieldsman, Major Gatsby and River Wharfe each with 8pts and having featured on all four columns. I think that these are the ones to focus on now. This half dozen are drawn no higher than stall 9 (2, 4, 6, 7, 8 & 9) with most of them in the higher half of the draw over a course and distance  where the draw stats wouldn't necessarily be enough to rule any of them out...

...although stall 6 (Fieldsman) seems an anomaly with such a poor return. The key to winning at Brighton has often been about getting your nose in front and staying there...

...with leaders almost twice as likely as prominent/hold-up types to win. Again, I'd be wary of suggesting mid-division horses can't win, but their record is pretty poor from both a win and place perspective and I'd want my runner to be in the forward half of the field, which is where you're likely to find Shalfa and Fieldsman...

and my shortlisted six from pace/draw combined...

Summary

I narrowed the field down to six and then based initially on pace and then by the pace/draw combination, I think that I'd want Shalfa, Fieldsman and King of War as my three for the frame in a very open-looking race. I could easily have the first three home, but I could also have none in the frame and as such, it's case of keeping stakes very low.

My three are relatively generously priced at 8/1, 5/1 and 16/1 respectively and on that basis, I'd take E/W options about Shalfa at 8's and King of War at 16's and if you've still got an active SkyBet account, they're paying four places.

Good luck!

 

 

Racing Insights, Monday 22/05/23

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The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 3.40 Carlisle
  • 5.25 Roscommon
  • 5.45 Market Rasen
  • 6.25 Roscommon
  • 8.05 Windsor
  • 8.45 Market Rasen

...the best of which, on paper, are a couple of Class 4 contests ie typical Monday fayre. The Carlisle Class 4 contest only has seven runners and won't provide much scope for E/W punters, whilst the Market Rasen offering is a 5-runner maiden! With that and today's feature in mind, I'll drop down a class and head for the 8.05 Windsor, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo flat handicap over 1m3½f around the figure of eight on good to form ground...

It's a busy-looking racecard so let's quickly assess the information in front of us before moving on. Form-wise, just Hurtle was able to win last time out, but Overactive, City Cyclone and Mirabello Bay did manage to finish third and the latter had won three of his previous four outings, whilst Bulldog Spirit is the only runner in the race with a previous win, having scored at Newcastle on his debut in September of last year.

It's a fairly inexperienced field with just 42 career starts, of which Mirabello Bay is responsible for 14! This general inexperience manifests itself by the lack of wins and in the facts that Rule Of Thumb and Bulldog Spirit both only have one previous handicap run each and that Overactive, City Cyclone, Brave Knight and Kyle of Lochalsh are all on handicap debuts here.

Rule of Thumb drops in class here, whilst Mirabello Bay's LTo win was at Class 6 and he's up in both class and weight, although by just 1lb and he has already won at Class 5, as Instant Expert will testify shortly.

Most of the field have raced in the last two months or so, but it's a seasonal reappearance for Kyle of Lochalsh, Hurtle and Brave Knight after lay-offs of 151, 230 and 251 days respectively, so they'd be excused for needing a run here.

Only Mirabello Bay has raced here at Windsor before, but has failed to make the frame in two starts, but he's also the only one to have run at a similar trip to this one, having won over 1m4f two starts ago.

I think the lack of experience may well have affected the assessor's judgement as the entire field only has a 4lb spread from highest to lowest rated, so so of these might well have been treated leniently or harshly depending upon your viewpoint. This inexperience is also reflected in the relevant stats shown on Instant Expert...

Not much to go on here, admittedly, but our three previous winners have all won at this grade, Hurtle has at least made the frame on good to firm ground and there's not really much to add to that, so let's quickly move on to see who might have the best of the draw over a course and distance that has tended to suit those drawn highest for win purposes, but there seems to be no bias at all when it comes to making the frame...

Those win stats will be better news for the likes of Kyle of Lochalsh, Hurtle and possibly Rule of Thumb than it will over their rivals, but I suspect much will depend on how the field approach the contest, which is where feature of the day, PACE, comes into its own, because we know that those races above have favoured horses racing in a prominent position, just off the leader(s)...

Aside from this advantage for prominent runners, there's not much to split the other three running styles from either a win or a place perspective. We can also use our pace stats to make an educated guess at how these runners will approach this race, by looking at how they've tended to race in their most recent outings as follows...

A couple of them aren't entirely consistent in the early days of their career, but I'd expect City Cyclone to be setting the pace and Mirabello Bay to be the early back marker. Brave Knight will probably also be towards the rear, whilst Bulldog Spirit is likely to be prominent. Both Overactive and Kyle of Lochalsh led in their last races, which was a new tactic for them, but it didn't produce a better run than their previous efforts, so they might not race as freely this time.

Summary

Based on the evidence (or lack of!) above, of the past winners, I think the more experienced and most successful Mirabello Bay would be the one to choose for my shortlist, joined by the pace of City Cyclone and possibly Kyle of Lochalsh, whose yard have a great record at this track and have won this particular race several times in the past.

The obvious pick would be Mirabello Bay with his 4 wins and 2 places from 14 starts, including 3 wins and 2 places from his last six, but closer analysis of his form shows that those six runs were all on the A/W and that his last run on turf was here at Windsor when third of seven over 1m2f last October. That was his sixth run on turf and his other five results read 77656, so he's not suddenly as hot as he might appear.

City Cyclone has ran well in both starts this season, finishing third on both occasions and of the four horses that beat him in those races, two won next time out, one made the frame and one has yet to re-appear, so those third places might have decent efforts and if afforded an easy lead here, he could go well again.

Kyle of Lochalsh is admittedly a bit of a "what-if" type of selection, it took him a while to get going last time out, but seemed to be getting the hang of it in the closing stages and his yard have done well here/in this race in the past.

To be honest, it's not really a race I'd ant to invest heavily in, if at all, but if push came to shove, I think that this trio would represent my best chance of filling the frame. As for a winner, there's nothing jumping out, but City Cyclone could well be the one, if allowed to set the tempo. Mirabello Bay might have got used to losing now, too!

I wrote the above just after 3pm on Sunday with only Bet365's odds available. To put money down on them, I'd want at least 8/1 for any of them as an E/W bet and only City Cyclone offered that opportunity at 9/1, so that's my tentative selection for (very) small stakes.

Racing Insights, Friday 19/05/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced just one qualifier...

Thankfully, our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.50 York
  • 3.15 Newbury
  • 5.00 Downpatrick
  • 5.26 Newbury
  • 7.40 Aintree
  • 7.45 Downpatrick

The first on that list is a Listed race, but full of inexperienced runners, so I'm heading to Liverpool for a decent looking stayers' contest. The 7.40 Aintree might not be of 'Grand National' proportions, but it's a competitive 11-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ handicap chase (19 fences) over a left-handed 3m1f on good ground...

Bottom weight Go On Chez won last time out and Lounge LIzard comes here seeking a hat-trick, whilst top weight Kinondo Kwetu has two third places finishes at Class 1 after winning six straight races. Only Java Point and Tim Pat are winless in five.

Both Kinondo Kwetu and Ruthless Article are down in class from runs in valuable Class 1 handicaps (the former was third here over course and distance off today's mark), whilst Topofthecotswolds and Saint Arvans both step up one class with Lounge Lizard and Go On Chez up two grades from wins at Class 4 last time out.

A few of these have had relatively recently wind surgery and Empire de Maulde, Kinondo Kwetu and Go On Chez now run for the first, second and fourth time respectively since their op.

Ruthless Article has won a 2m4f chase here at Aintree, whilst Kinondo Kwetu, Empire de Maulde and Go On Chez are former course and distance winners. Organdi, Hidden Heroics, Lounge Lizard and Topofthecotswolds have managed to win over a similar trip elsewhere,

Seven of the field have raced inside the last six weeks, but four (Topofthecotswolds, bottom weight Go On Chez, sole female Organdi and Empire de maulde) might well need the run, coming off respective breaks of 144, 189, 209 and some 371 days.

Instant Expert also tells me that all bar Java Point (0 from 5) have won a chase on good ground, but that only Ruthless Article & Empire de Maulde have won at this grade. All four runners to have visited Aintree have won here and only Tim Pat is waiting for a chase win over 3m to 3m2f after four attempts...

...whilst place form looks like this...

The place stats highlight decent last efforts from Empire de Maulde with a full line of green from the four main criteria (going/class/course/distance), whilst Kinindo Kwetu has 3 from 3, Go On Chez has 3 greens and a red (from just one C2 run) and Ruthless Article has 2 green and 2 amber. Lounge Lizard and Saint Arvans have no class/track experience but have handled the going and the trip well enough and the fact we can easily pull half a dozen names off that graphic shows the competitive nature of the contest.

The way this field have approached their most recent outings suggests they might get a little strung out...

...with Hidden Heroics, Topofthecotswolds and Lounge Lizard looking keen to get on with things, whilst I'd expect Saint Arvans and Go On Chez to let them get on with it and then wait for a late run. Fortunately for us, we know how previous past similar contests have panned out via our Pace Analyser...

...which say that whilst hold-up horses do go on to make the frame more than mid-division runners, they do struggle to win here, which is a bot of a blow to Saint Arvans and Go On Chez.

Summary

The two best runners here for me are Kinondo Kwetu and Lounge Lizard and they'd be my starting point. The former is coming off a pair of Class 1 third places, before which he was six from six. He drops in class here after racing over course and distance off today's mark and that drop in class might be all he needs to get back to wining ways.

Lounge Lizard comes here seeking a hat-trick, but is up two classes and 9lbs. In fact, aside from one Class 3 outing, where he was beaten by 52 lengths, his other ten races have all been at Class 4 and this is a big step up, so of the pair, I'd be with Kinondo Kwetu. Only Hills had a book open at 4pm and I felt their 11/4 was a bit skinny as I was hoping for 7/2 or bigger, so I'll wait that out.

For the places, Lounge Lizard might be vulnerable to those from behind him like Hidden Heroics and Saint Arvans who are both more than capable under these conditions with the latter particularly attractive as an E/W possible at 14's, based on the way he has shaped in his last two runs.

Chris

Please Note, I'm away from home/my desk pretty much all day Friday, so no Saturday preview from me, sorry. I'll be back Sunday for Monday's racing.

Racing Insights, Thursday 18/05/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 1.30 Salisbury
  • 2.25 York
  • 4.35 Perth
  • 6.20 Newmarket
  • 6.55 Newmarket

And clearly the best of those is on the Knavesmire, so let's focus upon the 2.25 York, an 8-runner, Fillies And Mares Group 2 flat contest over a left-handed 1m2.3f on good ground...

As you'd expect from a race of this magnitude, the field have won plenty of races between them and both Aristia and Free Wind won last time out, the latter coming here looking for a fourth win on the bounce with only Rogue Millennium winless in five.

Sea Silk Road has been flagged as a fast finisher and there's no new headgear or equipment on show. Rogue Millennium last raced just 18 days ago, but all of her rivals are running for the first time in at least 215 days with Free Wind not having been seen for almost 11 months since winning the Lancashire Oaks. That was also off a lengthy break, meaning that this will be only her second run in over 600 days!

Toskana Belle has won three of her six starts in Europe prior to this UK debut, but her wins were over 8f, 9f and 11f, making her the only one without a win at 1m2f, whilst the two course winners, Aristia and State Occasion have both triumphed over course and distance in July 2021 and August 2022 respectively, the former in a Listed race.

All bar Aristia & Toskana Belle will carry 9st 2lbs here, making Free Wind some 6lbs to 12lbs 'well-in' on her rivals based on OR/handicap marks and with the Gosden/Dettori partnership behind her, she couldn't be in better hands as she seeks a hat-trick of Group 2 wins.

Instant Expert doesn't carry overseas form, so it doesn't show that Toskana Belle is 3 from 3 on good ground and has 2 wins & 2 further places at Class 1. She hasn't tackled this track or trip yet, but here's how her rivals stack up...

The huge swathes of green were to be expected, but let's have a quick look at those with less than ideal scores by bringing up the place stats...

Poptronic's best form has been on the Tapeta tracks at Newcastle & Wolverhampton, whilst Rogue MIllennium's two career wins (from seven starts) have been on quicker ground than this and as for State Occasion's record at Class 1, she was 4th of 10 in as Listed race at Dundalk last September and 8th of 13 in a Newmarket Group 3 a fortnight later and hasn't been seen since. She finished 211 in a trio of Class 2 races prior to those defeats and that's probably her level.

Our 100% placers Free Wind and Sea Silk Road are drawn in stalls 6 and 3 respectively here and the last five renewals of this race have been won by horses coming out of the first two stalls, but more generally here at York over this going/trip, there's not a huge draw bias...

...although there is a suggestion that stalls 7 & 8 might be the place to be, which would be good for the likes of Toskana Belle and Rogue Millennium if the race was run to suit them, of course. Those races aboive also don't have a huge pace bias either, but leaders have come out worse than any other running style...

...which might not be the best news for the likes of Aristia and Free Wind, as this group's last four outings suggest that this pair might be the ones having to set the tempo in what might be a falsely run race...

That said, the pace/draw heat map gives pretty much most running style/draw combos a chance of success, so it might just boil down to a class of the cream rising to the top.

Summary

Sometimes we have little pace, draw or heat map bias to work with and in those cases, I tend to revert to recent form via the formline on the card and also historical data via Instant Expert and having done so, I'm not surprised that Free Wind is the early 11/8 favourite. She's clearly the one to beat here and the question really is whether you think 11/8 offers any value at all. Personally, I thought she might have been 6/4 or 7/4 early doors, but I wouldn't be surprised to her price shorten. Make of that what you will.

LTO winner Aristia has won over track and trip before and I'd expect her and possibly Sea Silk Road to be the ones chasing the fav home, but you'd probably guess that from the fact they're next best in the market at 5/1 and 11/2. In fairness, the top 3 in the market do sometimes finish 1-2-3 and I'd not be hugely surprised if that happened here, but if you were looking for something a bit longer at an E/W price, you can get 8's about the French filly, Toskana Belle.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 17/05/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.35 York
  • 4.20 Newton Abbot
  • 5.40 Bath
  • 6.20 Cork
  • 8.10 Bath
  • 8.30 Perth

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

Depending on your viewpoint, it's unfortunate that I can't tie the 'free' races up with the daily feature or it's good news that the two have thrown up lots of races for me to look at. And being a glass half-full kind of bloke, like I'm sure you are, I'm taking it that I've got thirteen UK races listed above, from which the 3.40 York is clearly the best on paper, but has very little data for me to share with you.

So, aside from that Group 3 race I've swerved, I'm left with a host of Class 4 or worse races, but they'll all have a winner, so let's see if we can crack the most valuable of them, the 2.05 Newton Abbot, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m2½f on good to soft ground...

The two form horses here are Monjules and Inferno Sacree who are 3 from 5 and 4 from 5 respectively, whilst featured horse Polyphonic and Swinging London have both been runners-up in each of their last two starts, but the former is winless in seven now and others on losing runs are Atholl Street at eight defeats and the 12-race maiden Fongs Way, who now makes a yard debut and UK debut since a move to Jimmy Frost (who doesn't have a great record here!).

Elsewhere Polyphonic makes just a second handicap appearance and Swinging London is in first-time cheekpieces. Top weight The Pink'n is down a class here, as are the in-form Inferno Sacree and the cold Atholl Street, but our other form horse, Monjules is up two grades here from a Flat outing but his last effort over hurdles was in this grade. He's one of just four to have won at a similar trip to this one, along with Polyphonic, Inferno Sacree (almost inevitably) and The Pink'n, who is also our only previous course winner, courtesy of a Class 3, 2m1f hurdle success almost 4 yrs ago.

Swinging London returns from a short eight-week break, but all of his rivals have raced in the last month, except Fongs Way, who hasn't been seen since he was pulled up at Cork five months ago. Other stats, taken from Instant Expert, show that just four of this field have won a NH race on good to soft ground and that five of them are previous Class 4 winners...

Not a great deal to shout about here, but Monjules, Inferno Sacree & Polyphonic do spark a little interest but Swinging London looks like he might struggle and The Plimsoll Line has toiled at this level. Place stats...

...are more encouraging for a decent Class 4 battle with so many of this field having good place numbers, but Inferno Sacree is a glaring exception, although he did win at Class 3 last time out. Winless in six efforts at this level, Swinging London has consistently made the frame, only missing out once, so he might well be a place option again here.

Pace data from past races here at Newton Abbot suggest that the further forward a horse races, the better its chances of winning...

...and this is sure to suit the front-running Inferno Sacree, based on his recent efforts...

Summary

Aside from having failed to make the frame in five previous runs at this level, Inferno Sacree ticks all the boxes for me here today. He's in great form, he won at a higher class last time out and now drops down again. Yes, he's up in the weights again, but he's won four of his last five with winning margins of 20, 5.5, 9.5 and 8.5 lengths, so will take some stopping. He has won at this trip, he has won on good to soft and is likely to lead on a front-runners' track. He's generally available at 9/2, which is more than fair.

Elsewhere, the other market principals, Monjules (3/1), Swinging London (4/1) and Polyphonic (4/1) should all run their races and end up there or thereabouts, but pace/form suggests Monjules should win that particular battle. I don't really have an E/W play here, as I thought The Pink'n was the best of those priced at 8's or bigger, but I'd want more than 8/1 for him from a hold-up position. The Plimsoll Line has an outside chance of hanging on to a place in the capable hands of Rex Dingle, but again I'd want more than 8's about him.

So for me, it's Inferno Sacree to make all and beat the chasing Monjules with Swinging London and Polyphonic battling to rein The Plimsoll Line in.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 16/05/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

And we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 4.25 Chepstow
  • 4.35 Newcastle
  • 6.00 Wetherby
  • 7.15 Sandown
  • 7.35 Killarney
  • 7.55 Sligo

...and although it's not the best race of the day or even the best of the 'free' list, we really should marry the free feature with the free cards and take a quick look at Killane in the 4.35 Newcastle, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m1f on good ground...

Magic Mike and featured horse Killane both won last time out and aside from Artic Row's success four races ago, none of the others have won any of five starts with both Ebendi and Bebside Banter failing to complete twice in their last four outings.

The afore mentioned Ebendi makes just a second handicap appearance (fell at 2nd hurdle on hcp debut) and the recently out of sorts (pulled up in two of his last three) Bebside Banter is now fitted with first-time cheeekpieces, meaning that only Minella Youngy, Ebendi and Mactavish run without any headgear/apparatus.

Bebside Banter also drops down from Class 4 here, as do Irish Sovereign and Mactavish, but bottom weight Burnage Boy is up from Class 6 some three months after his last run.

Only Mactavish, who returns from six months off, has been away from the track longer than Burnage Boy, with the rest of the field having raced in April (plus a May outing for Bebside Banter).

As you'd expect from The Shortlist, Killane is a former course and distance winner and none of his rivals have won here before, but Artic Row, Ingleby Mackenzie and Magic Mike have all at least won over a similar trip.

Further conditions-related info courtesy of Instant Expert shows that just five of the field have a good ground NH win, but that half a dozen have won at Class 5. You can adjust the parameters yourself, of course to find the sole Class 4 win, but here are today's relevant win stats...

...where Killane aside, it's a pretty bleak picture. The areas I've most concerns about are Minella Youngy (class/distance), Artic Row (distance), Mactavish (time off/going/distance), Edmond Dantes (distance), Ingleby Mackenzie (class/distance), Magic Mike (going), Burnage Boy (class/distance), phew! Hopefully some of these will have better place records...

Hmmm, not much better to be honest. My next port of call is pace and if the field run like they have been running of late...

...then I'd expect Bebside Banter to be the one setting the tempo of the contest early doors with Mactavish and Minella Youngy the back markers. Featured runner Killane has raced prominently in two if his last four and does tend to run in an advanced position generally, which would seem to suit this race, based on past similar contests...

Summary

I wanted to marry up the free feature with the races of the day and that meant looking at Killane's chances here and the only possible negatives I have about him are that he's up 3lbs from his win a month ago and that we might not get a decent price when the book opens.

That said, he's only one pound higher than a win at Carlisle last year and he's back on good ground after winning on heavy last time out. Price-wise, 5/2 would be tolerable, but if I could get 3/1, I'd be much happier!

Others to note would be Magic Mike and Irish Sovereign with the latter hopefully a double digit-odds E/W option.

Racing Insights, Monday 15/05/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 5.15 Wolverhampton
  • 5.25 Killarney
  • 5.40 Musselburgh
  • 6.55 Killarney
  • 8.35 Windsor
  • 8.45 Southwell

The last of these looks like the being the best on paper, at least, so let's take a look at the 8.45 Southwell, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed two miles (2m½f after rail movements) on good to soft ground that will be softer in places with more showers expected...

Of the nine runners, only handicap debutant Toronet was a winner last time out, but that was in a poor climing race in France back in February and he now also makes a UK debut here. Of his rivals, only Tarahumara, Restandbethankful and With A Start failed to make the frame on their last run and the best looking formline belongs to Sea The Clouds (1122).

He now runs in a handicap for just the second time, as does Tarahumara, who has also had wind surgery since his last run. The bottom two on the card are the only class movers today, as the 12 yr old veteran McGowans Pass drops down a level and the sole mare, bottom weight Karannelle steps up a grade after back to back narrow defeats as a runner-up last year at Newton Abbot.

The last of those Newton Abbot runs was some 258 days ago and none of her rivals have been away from the track longer. Most of the field have raced in the last month, aside from Toronet (76d), Tarahumara (93d) and Sea The Clouds (175d).

None of this group have won here at Southwell before, mind you just three of them have raced here before (once each), but all bar French import Toronet have won at a similar trip.

Toronet hasn't raced in the UK before, so he obviously has no previous Class 4 win, but all of his rivals bar McGowans Pass have won at this grade, whilst just three of the field have won on good to soft or soft ground, according to Instant Expert...

You'd have to think that the Ground conditions would be against Elham Valley, Restandbethankful and McGowans Pass with a combined 1 win from 24 and both Elham Valley and McGowans Pass have toiled at Class 4. In fact, the latter just doesn't seem well suited to the task in hand at all and age isn't on his side. We do have a fair smattering of green above, but not enough to hang a bet from. I'm hoping the place stats can guide me a little closer...

Well, there's certainly more green, isn't there? And if we eliminate all the red blocks...

...it would seem that Sea The Clouds, Tarahumara and Too Friendly should be the ones, who'd relish conditions the most.

Today's feature is, of course, the PACE tab but before we look at how this field normally approach their races, let's have a quick look at how this kind of race has panned out historically here at Southwell...

...which says that leader win far more than their fair share of races and even to just make the frame, you don't want to be too lose to the back of the field, which doesn't look like good news for Too Friendly or Karannell based on this from their last four outings...

Expect McGowans Pass to set the pace, as he virtually always does and whilst he's a regular top 3 finisher, having done so in 10 of his last 14, he hasn't actually managed to hang on for a win in any of those races! What's likely here is that he gives Sea The Clouds a tow into the race and makes a target of himself in the closing stages.

Summary

Alphabetically, I think Elham Valley, Sea The Clouds, Tarahumara and Too Friendly are the best horses in the race and that Sea The Clouds, Tarahumara and Too Friendly seem the best suited by conditions. Sea The Clouds also has the best pace profile of this shortlisted group and Too friendly looks like having too much to do from the back and if we look at the field's last few results, Sea The Clouds is the 'form' horse.

With that in mind, it would have to be Sea The Clouds for me here and 5/1 is decent enough. I'd expect the others named above to be there or thereabouts, whilst McGowans Pass might run well enough to hold on for a place, depending on what happens behind him.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 13/05/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated just two runners under each of the 1-year overall and 1-year course form filters...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.30 Ascot
  • 2.40 Ascot
  • 3.05 Nottingham
  • 3.30 Navan
  • 4.15 Nottingham
  • 5.55 Warwick

...and of those ten (free list plus report qualifiers), there's a Class 2 race at Ascot in both sectors. The 23-runner Victoria Cup (2.40 Ascot) is too far out of my comfort zone, so I'm going to assess the chances of Belhaven in the 2.05 Ascot, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a straight mile on soft ground, that is already heavy in places...

Featured horse Belhaven was a winner last time out, as were Timeless Melody and Mountain Song, who finally got off the mark after three runner-up finishes. Only Perfect Thunder, Farhh To Shy and Beccara Rose are without a win in their recent form line.

Belhaven does however step up a class after her recent win, as do Sly Madam and Farhh To Shy. One Morning is up two classes, along with Mountain Song and Beccara Rose, whilst Timeless Melody's recent win was at Class 5! On the other hand, both Don't Tell Claire and Mottisfont are both down from recent Class 1 runs after racing in Listed / Group 3 company respectively.

Don't Tell Claire now wears cheekpieces for just the second time, Perfect Thunder makes a yard debut for Patrick Owens, whilst it's handicap debut day for One Morning, Timeless Melody, Mottisfont and Beccara Rose (who runs from 2lbs out of the handicap). It's also only the second handicap outing for top weight Julia Augusta as well as Mountain Song.

We have two 3 yr olds in the field, Mountain Song and Beccara Rose and they'll benefit from a very healthy 13lb weight (for age) allowance in this open handicap and the former has already scored over today's trip, as have Julia Augusta, Don't Tell Claire, featured runner Belhaven and Sly Madam. Don't Tell Claire is our only previous Ascot winner, courtesy of a class, course and distance victory twenty months ago.

Most of the field have an outing this season already, but Perfect Thunder, One Morning and Julia Augusta might well need this run, as they come off breaks of 202, 234 and 302 days respectively.

A look at Instant Expert then adds to the stats above by highlighting that feature horse Belhaven is one of just three to have won on soft or heavy ground and that she and the afore-mentioned Don't Tell Claire are our only Class 2 winners on display...

...whilst many of their rivals lack previous experience under these prevailing conditions, but a quick look at the place stats does at least add a bit more colour...

...with Don't Tell Claire Belhaven and Perfect Thunder probably of most interest.

Over a straight mile, you'd be forgiven for thinking that the draw wouldn't have much effect and although the following is based on a fairly small sample size...

...the lower half of the draw has really struggled in similar past contests, as shown here in the stall-by-stall data...

...and this gives some advantage to those drawn 7 or higher here. This draw bias is probably stronger than any perceived pace bias, but the small number of leaders have won more than their fair share of races...

The effect of the draw is probably better highlighted by the pace/draw heat map...

...so as long as One Morning, Perfect Thunder, Mottisfont, Belhaven and Sly Madam aren't hold-up horses, their chances of success should be enhanced by the draw. So, let's look at how they've approached their most recent races...

Belhaven may have a average pace score of 2.25, but she did lead last time out and a similar approach puts her right in the mix here. Don't tell Claire is hampered by both draw and running style and the pace here is likely to be down the centre wit the in-form Mountain Song.

Summary

We started with Belhaven and we're going to finish with her. I think she's good enough to win this race, but probably won't. She's 2 from 3 and 4 from 7, but a 7lb rise for her LTO win takes her mark to a career high 87, some 20lbs higher than her win seven races ago last May. She's also up in class here, so I think this might be just too much for her.

That said, most firms are paying four places and I think that she's good for a place. 13/2 is a bit short for me as an E/W bet, but it might work for you. As for the winner, I think I fancy Mountain Song to defy class and weight rises because she might well be afforded a soft lead and 4/1 seems a fair price.

Racing Insights, Friday 12/05/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

Sadly, my chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can still fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.40 Chester
  • 5.20 Ascot
  • 5.30 Wolverhampton
  • 5.45 Nottingham
  • 6.10 Kilbeggan
  • 7.55 Kilbeggan

...the best of which is arguably the 2.40 Chester. The Huxley Stakes might only have six runners, but it's a Group 2 contest for 4yo+ runners over a left-handed 1m2½f on soft ground...

No surprise to see a small field for this one, the last eleven renewals have only had a combined 62 runners and the market is likely to be headed by Point Lonsdale, the mount of course specialist Ryan Moore. Ryan absolutely loves this race and he has ridden the winner in each of the last two years and going further back, he is 4 from 6, 6 from 11 and 7 from 13 in this contest!

It's not a handicap contest, so they all carry 9st 3lbs, which means that Mujtaba is technically a pound better off than Point Lonsdale, but he is up in class today and returns from a break of 202 days. He is, however, the only one of the six to have won here on the Roodee, having scored over 7½f in just his second outing, way back in September 2021. Royal Champion also returns from a break and he has been away a week longer than Mujtaba.

Both Foxes Tales and Point Lonsdale won last time out and Layfayette is the only one without a win in their last six starts, although he does have a Group 3 third and a Group 2 runner-up finish to his name from two runs at The Curragh already this season. He is, however, the lowest rated of the sextet, assessed as 8lbs inferior to Mujtaba.

FOXES TALES snapped a cold spell of eight defeats by landing a Listed race at Kempton last time out over 1m2f and should relish the return to grass and soft ground, where he is two from two.

LAYFAYETTE has been around the block a few times with 26 races under his belt, but he in winless in six since a five-week hat-trick at the start of last season. Has gone well in his first two starts of this campaign, but you'd have to expect others to be stronger.

MUJTABA won his first three races (Autumn 2021) and is five from eight so far, but all his recent form is at Class 2 and this is a big step up for him. He won on heavy ground last time out and has won on good, good to soft and soft, so going doesn't seem to faze him, but the added quality here and the effects of a layoff might undo him.

POINT LONSDALE has five wins and a runner-up finish from just seven starts, landing three Class 1 races as a 2yo in 2021 as well as a Group 1 runner-up spot. His only race last season was the 2000 Guineas when finishing out of the money, seven lengths behind Coroebus on his return from a 230-day absence. That said, he did win next/last time out at The Curragh in a Group 3 contest some 351 days later, so he's clearly ready to run.

POKER FACE is a lightly raced (4 starts) 4yr old who was 3 from 3 in the autumn of 2022 with a pair of Class 5 wins followed by a Class 4 success. He then took six months off before finishing second in the Group 3 Earl Of Sefton at Newmarket on soft ground last month. Should go well, but I'd fancy others more.

ROYAL CHAMPION has won three of nine, but lacks consistency as typified by his last two runs. He landed a 1m2f Listed race by 5.5 lengths at Ayr in mid-September, but four weeks later was last home of nine tailed right off (120 lengths) in the Champion Stakes at Ascot and hasn't been seen since. Now coming back from 30 weeks off track, he's probably best left alone here until we see what kind of shape he's in, especially on his soft ground debut.

As well as having the talents of Ryan Moore in the saddle, Point Lonsdale can take comfort from knowing that Instant Expert also points him out as a leading player here...

...but both Foxes Tales and Royal Champion have poor records at Class 1, although the latter will certainly relish the soft ground where one of his two Class 1 wins came from. At this point, I'd be leaning towards those with some soft ground form.

At first glance, you'd be forgiven for thinking that those drawn centrally would have the best of it here...

...but I'm not convinced the bias is that pronounced although the lower half a of six-runner field would appear to have more chances of making the frame. In a small field here at Chester there's no real need to be out wide and the key to winning this may well revolve around who starts best and gets away quickest according tot he pace stats from those races above...

...facts backed up by the heat map, showing that you can win from anywhere in the draw, but that pace is key...

All of this is another tick in the box for Point Lonsdale...

Summary

It's very hard to get away from Point Lonsdale here, isn't it? And you can see why he's only priced at 5/4 or 11/8, but if you're happy playing at such odds, I'd expect you to be making profit. As or who chases him home, I think it's Foxes Tales v Mujtaba and although the bookies have them at best prices of 5/1 and 4/1, it's Foxes Tales for me.

They both won last time out, but Mujtaba is up in class and hasn't been seen for a while, whilst Foxes Tales has the 'better' draw, should race further forward and just happens to sit in a nice green spot on the pace/draw heatmap.

So, it's Point Lonsdale to beat Foxes Tales for me.

Racing Insights, Thursday 11/05/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.40 Chester
  • 5.05 Huntingdon
  • 5.48 Clonmel
  • 6.00 Chelmsford
  • 7.00 Chelmsford
  • 7.18 Clonmel

I want to tie the feature of the day into the free races here, so I'm going to look at the 6.00 Chelmsford. On the face of it, it's a poor looking 13-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap for Amateur jockeys over a left-handed 6f on standard polytrack...

So, we've no LTO winners and only Billian is any kind of form with a win and four places from his last five starts. Hannah's Return did win two starts ago and Forever Dreaming, Millicent and Master Sully do have a win in their recent form line.

Top weight Red Alert drops down from Class 5, as does Forever Dreaming. San Juan runs for Damien Wingrove for the first time leaving Mark Loughnane's yard, Miss Connaisuer makes a second run post-wind surgery and both Fristel and Billian are noted as fast finishers.

Red Alert and Monsieur Fantaisie are both former course and distance winners, whilst Forever Dreaming, Billian and Hannah's Return have also scored over today's trip elsewhere.

At 114 days off, Monsieur Fantaisie might be a bit rusty, but his yard have a good record with horses coming back from a break. Aside from San Juan's 97 day lay-off, the rest of the field have all raced in the past eight weeks.

The bottom three on the card all run from 1lb outside the handicap.

Instant Expert usually helps us pick winners from such mediocre cards, but even feature of the day is struggling with this bunch...

...although some of them have clearly done better than others, but wait! Watch what happens if we look at A/W place form...

...now we suddenly have something to work with. Firstly I need to de-clutter, so let's get rid of Fristel, Millicent, Master Sully, Shining Crystal and Miss Connaisseur, because they're all holding a full line of red and if you can't make the frame, you can't win! Now this looks a bit better...

There are obvious concerns over Red Alert & San Juan on standard going with the latter also faring poorly at this trip, so I think we'll remove them at this point too before I start to fragment the Instant Expert graphic as follows...

In fairness, I probably didn't need to do that for you, but it means that I'm now only going to consider Hannah's Return, Forever Dreaming, Billian and Monsieur Fantaisie, who'll be spread across the track at the start from stalls 1, 4, 8 & 13 (non-runner came from #13). I put them in draw order, as the draw is the next thing to consider to see if those drawn at either end have a greater or worse chance of winning...

The initial thought here is that low draws do considerably better than high draws, based on the angle of that line, but the reality is that low draws only have 5 more winners from 415 runs, so I'm not too concerned about the horse out in stall 13 just yet, but he'll certainly have to make up ground if there's a level break. That said, Monsieur Fantaisie has been sharlply away on his last two outings...

...which, as most people know, is the correct way to approach 6f here at Chelmsford...

This isn't great news for either Billian or Forever Dreaming, because a look at the bigger picture says they could well have 10 runners to try and pass late on...

Summary

So, from the above I'm taking Monsieur Fantaisie, top scorer on Instant Expert to beat Hannah's Return, who also scored well on IE. They're the pace in this race too and I'm hoping they're the first two home.

The early market would seem to agree, sadly, as Monsieur Fantaisie is the 7/2 favourite with Hannah's Return at 6/1 alongside Billian with Forever Dreaming fourth in the odds at 8/1. The latter makes most sense as an E/W bet, but Billian is in the better form and should make the frame.

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 10/05/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.40 Kelso
  • 2.40 Chester
  • 4.55 Chester
  • 6.15 Fontwell Park
  • 8.15 Fontwell Park

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

...giving me five 'free' races and four TS report races to choose from. Of these nine, the 2.40 Chester Listed contest is clearly the best on paper, but there's not a great deal of data for me to work with there. After that I'm left with a bunch of Class 4 and Class 5 races, so I'll remain at Chester for the most valuable of the eight, the 4.55 Chester, a 14-runner (a few more than I prefer!), Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left handed 7f on good to soft ground...

Just one of the fourteen, Roundhay Park, won last time out and he's two from five. Maysong and Melly's Flyer both won two races ago, whilst Hodler, Roman Dragon, Gorak and He's A Gentleman have all won at least once in their last five.

The top three in the weights are ll drawn in the car park (more on that shortly) and all are down in class; Another Batt and Roman Dragon are down one class, as is Devasboy whilst Hodler drops down from Class 2, just like Maysong & Roudemental. LTO winner Roundhay Park is up 7lbs and one grade.

Ten of the field have raced in the last three weeks and both Roudemental (39 days) and San Isidro (62d) shouldn't have got too rusty, but Paws For Thought and Roman Dragon might well need a run after breaks of 197 and 221 days respectively.

We have six previous course winners in the shape of Another Batt, Roman Dragon and Devasboy over 7½f, 6f and 7½f whilst Roundhay Park, Paws For Thought & Broken Spear are all former course and distance winners. Only Roman Dragon, Roudemental, San Isidro and He's A Gentleman have yet to score over this trip.

Aside from these stats, our trusted Instant Expert feature points out just four previous good to soft winners, but also that only four have failed to win a Class 4 race...

As with many Class 4 contests, Instant Expert doesn't necessarily point you directly towards a horse to back with there being far more red than green, but it can steer you away from some possibly unlikely winners. Roundhay Park loves good to soft ground, but Paws For Thought and Maysong are a combined 1 from 14 on this going and Oso Rapido's 0 from 5 isn't great either. Paws has won 2 of 6 at Class 4, though and Roman Dragon has gone well at this level too. Strugglers in this grade are Maysong, Broken Spear, Melly's Flyer, Devasboy and He's A Gentleman, whilst none of the field have acquitted themselves particularly well over the trip.

The above is all form, so what I like to do next with these big field is look at Flat Handicap place form, which looks like this...

...and at this point, I'm only really interested in green and amber scores ie...

...and then I'm happy to discard any runner not featuring above, leaving me with (in draw order)...

...as the half of the field I want to be with. Obvious concerns here about Devasboy at this grade and Roundhay Park at the trip, whilst Broken Spear looks to have scored best ahead of Paws For Thought. I've arranged them in draw order, because it's Chester and "you can't win from out wide over 7f at Chester" or can you?

Well, you can, but it doesn't happen often...

...and those drawn higher than than stall 10 in those races are 0 from 38, which doesn't bode well for Hodler or Maysong...

As for pace, the 'bias' isn't as huge as that with the draw, but there's a definite advantage to be gained from being up with the pace. Logic alone should tell you that it's hard to pass 13 others from the back on a course that's tight and constantly turning, but these are the numbers to back up that theory...


So ideally we want a low-drawn prominent runner or leader, according to those figures, yet taken in combination with the draw, the low bias over-rides everything!

This, however, is how our runners have approached their most recent contests...

...with Paws For Thought looing the likeliest of my seven.

Summary

This looks a decent contest despite only being a Class 4 race and it's looking like Paws For Thought for me. he was a runner-up last time out, he scores well on Instant Expert for places in Flat handicaps, is drawn in the lower half of the draw and likes to get on with things early doors. The only potential problem is the 197 day lay-off prior to a run on a tight track like this, but he won here at Chester over 6f on the 5th May 2021 after 193 days off and was a runner-up beaten by a short head here over 7f, headed at the post over this trip on May 5th last year after a break of 179 days, so the MO is clear.

He's 9/2 with Bet365 and that's just about acceptable to me, I'd have preferred 5/1 or 11/2 and he might drift, but 9/2 is about OK. As for the placers, the bookies pay four here (Sky actually go to 5th) and I'd be looking inside of Paws For Thought for any possible E/W bet or horses for forecast/tricast etc purposes.

I like Oso Rapido, but he hasn't been in the best of form. Mind you, 16/1 is a decent price for E/W purposes based on his stats. Broken Spear will be there or thereabouts, but 5/1 is no E/W price for me and I've already mentally ruled Devasboy out. It's going to be tough for those drawn wider than Paws, so I'm going to leave it there.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 09/05/23

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I hope you all had a great Bank Holiday weekend and that a return to normality on Tuesday isn't too much of a bind. The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Weebill and Finest View would be of most obvious interest initially. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 1.50 Lingfield
  • 7.00 Ludlow
  • 7.30 Ludlow
  • 8.45 Newcastle

The first of the two Ludlow contests is the highest rated of our 'free' races and as it also features Shortlist-highlight Finest View, it makes sense to have a look at the 7.00 Ludlow, a 13-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over two miles on good ground, that is softer in places with more rain due...

Lipa K and Kincardine both won last time out, but the latter had failed to complete his two previous outings. Caroles Pass, Samuel Spade and Cabrakan are all two from their last five, but Socialist Agenda is winless in five after back to back wins in early 2022.

Only four of these (Caroles Pass, Finest View, Tap Tap Boom & Bombyx) actually ran at this level last time with the other nine up in class, except Socialist Agenda who drops from Class 2. Of the eight class risers, all except Cabrakan step up just one level, but he's up two classes.

Caroles Pass, Samuel Spade, Bombyx and Casi Crudo are running in handicaps for just second time. Finest View wears a tongue-tie for the first time here and Socialist Agenda has a first outing since a wind operation performed during a three month break from action.

That break isn't the longest here, though. Most of the field have raced in the last nine weeks, but the exception, Galata Bridge was last seen in September 2022, so might well need the run.

All of these have won over a similar trip in the past and Tap Tap Boom has also landed a two mile chase here at Ludlow. The only other course winner is Shortlist horse Finest View, who is two from two over course and distance, including a win in this very race last year. He's 5lbs heavier here, but does have a 7lb claimer in the saddle.

In addition to the above, Instant Expert tells us that Bombyx is the only one of the pack yet to win an NH race on good / good to soft ground and that Finest View is the sole Class 3 winner, although Caroles Pass, Samuel Spade & Cabrakan have won at Class 2...

As expected, Finest View is the eyecatcher here and his place record is even stronger...

...where Tap Tap Boom's record at Class 3 remains poor. Bottom weight Casi Crudo, however, also seems like he'll relish the conditions too. If we said that Finest View and Casi Crudo were of definite interest at this stage, we then need to consider how we think they'll approach the contest and based on their recent outings...

...they both give the impression that they'll be fairly close together in mid-field in a race where Prime Time Lady looks like the one to set the pace, although Finest View did race more prominently last time out just as he did when winning this race last year. Racing further forward again here is likely to improve his chances as those setting the pace have the best record in similar past contests...

Summary

I like Finest View and Casi Crudo from above, but I'm not totally convinced they're quite good enough right now to win. The two I think I like more are Caroles Pass, who has the ideal pace profile and the in-form Kincardine, who won LTO by making all. In fairness, any of this quartet could be the winner and I don't really fancy any of them over any of the others, so with the bookies paying four places, I'd take these four for my placers.

I checked the early market from Hills at 4pm on Monday and they had the race priced up as follows...

...where I'd be happy to place a small E/W bet on three of them, but at 9/2 Kincardine is just too short for such an approach, although it would be fitting this week for him to land this for his owners, our newly crowned King and Queen.

Racing Insights, Saturday 06/05/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 2.23 Cork
  • 2.50 Newmarket
  • 3.10 Thirsk
  • 5.15 Newmarket
  • 7.25 Doncaster
  • 7.40 Hexham

...from which, I'm heading back to HQ, but not for either of the Appleby/Buick races, but to the 5.15 Newmarket from our 'free' list. It's an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo flat handicap over a straight 6f on good/good to form ground...

Bottom weight Chasseral won her last outing, Shaquille won his last two (and is three from four) and Expert Agent comes here off the back of three straight wins, whilst only Tenjin and Almaty Star are winless in their recent formline. Mind you, the latter has been placed in two of his three career starts, but the former is winless in eight and has won just one of twelve overall.

Only Tenjin, Shaquille and Ferrous raced at Class 2 LTO, as Brave Nation last raced in a Listed contest (but was last home), as did Bonny Angel (6th of 16). Washington Heights now steps up one class, Expert Angel & Eminency are up two classes, whilst Buccabay, Almaty Star & Chasseral all raced in Class 5 company most recently!

Plenty of these handciap experience, as it's just a second attempt for Washington Heights and Ferrous and it's debut day for Brave NAtion, Shaquille, Buccabay, Almaty Star and Chasseral.

None of these have won here before, mind you only four have raced here, just once each, but all bar Brave Nation, Washington Heights and Almaty Star have at least won over this trip.

Most of the field have been seen in the last four weeks, but Shaquille has been off for five months, Chasseral last raced in September 2022, whilst it's August 2022 that Brave Nation was last seen and six of the field have already scored on good or good to firm ground, according to Instant Expert...

As is often the case with early season three year olds, the place form tells us a lot more about the runners. It doesn't usually highlight a winner off such small pieces of data, but it does 'warn' you of those who might have already been tried and failed ie Brave Nation has toiled on good to firm since winning on debut, Tenjin's 'best' (and I use the word loosely) form has come on the A/W and Expert Agent has also done his best work away from the turf.

I think I've happy to discard all three at this point and Tenjin is unlikely to run after already losing here on Friday!

You'll probably not be too surprised to find there's no discernible draw bias over the straight 6f here...

...and the key to winning those races above has been pretty simple, get out quickly, run as fast as you can and hold on for as long as possible...

...which is ideal for the hat-trick seeking Shaquille from stall 11 of 11...

Summary

Shaquille ticks most boxes here, he's three from four, hasn't been treated too harshly on handicap debut, his jockey is in good form and rides this track well. Shaquille had the most 'green' on Instant Expert and has the best pace profile for this type of race. The only drawback is the 154 day break since his last run/win. That said, he did win on his racing debut and I'd expect him to be the one to beat here.

Sadly, others also expect him to win and the best we can get at 6.25pm is a widely available 3/1, but that's probably just about fair. You can then perm any two from six for the places, but the one that (mildly) interested me was Washington Heights. He probably needed the run when 9th at Thirsk recently after seven months off. Five furlongs was too sharp and he didn't enjoy the soft ground. He had ended last season finishing third of sixteen in a Listed race over 6f at Redcar, a couple of lengths behind a subsequent Group 3 winner and he'd a couple behind him who have also won since. A repeat of that run puts him in contention and 10/1 E/W (generally, but Sky & Coral pay four places) might be a good option.

Please Note : Family duties beckon on Sunday, so my next column will appear on Monday for Tuesday's racing. Enjoy your weekend however you spend it.