Tag Archive for: Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Wednesday 12/04/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.25 Nottngham
  • 4.25 Nottngham
  • 4.35 Southwell
  • 7.15 Gowran Park

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated quite a few runners for me to consider...

...but as I don't really do the Flat in April nor Irish racing at the best of times, I'm self-restricted to picking a race from either Kempton's A/W card or the jumps meeting at Southwell and it's to the former I go, as the 7.30 race featuring Ivan Furtado's Moai is the highest rated of the race I have TS report qualifiers in. In fairness, I'm fairly sure that Moai stands little/no chance of winning the 7.30 Kempton, but hopefully there's still a bet for us from this 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed mile on standard to slow polytrack...

My starting point is always the card itself as it gives us an easy/gentle introduction to the runners and the five aspects I consider first are...

FORM : Arctician is the sole LTO winner and comes here on a hat-trick, having made the frame twice before a pair of wins. Golden Sands and Intercessor both won two starts ago and both have made the frame in three of their last four with the latter winning twice. Tollard Royal, Darwell Lion and Fantasy believer are the only others with a win in their last five outings, as all three won five starts ago.

CLASS : Lots of movers here, as one (Golden Sands) steps up a class, whilst six (Spinaround, Rhythm n Rock, Darwell Lion, Hieronymous, Fantasy Believer & Cliffs of Capri) all drop down one level, whilst one (Spirit of the Bay) raced two grades higher at class 2 LTO.

WHAT'S NEW? : Featured horse Moai wears cheekpieces for the first time, whilst Longlai makes a first run for Michael Wigham's yard after leaving Richard Hannon, having won just two of fifteen.

COURSE/DISTANCE : All bar five (Spinaround, Darwell Lion, Moai, Longlai & Intercessor) have already won here at Kempton, whilst all bar the in-form Arctician have won over a one mile trip. Six of the field (Tollard Royal, Rhythm n Rock, Spirit of the Bay, Hieronymous, Fantasy Believer & Golden Sands) are former course and distance winners.

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN : Six of these (Cliffs of Capri, Darwell Lion, Arctician, Moai, Fantasy Believer and Spinaround) have all raced inside the last four weeks. Golden Sands has been off for six weeks and Hieronymous for almost two months, but five of these (Rhythm n Rock, Intercessor, Spirit of the Bay, Tollard Royal & Longlai) migfht well need the run after layoffs ranging from 145 to 279 days.

The above helps me build a pros and cons list for each runner and then I check their performance on similar going/class/weight via INSTANT EXPERT...

...which based on win stats would appear to favour runners 2 to 8. Arctician seems to have struggled on the slower A/W track here at Kempton, whilst Golden Sands' numbers are at least not in the red and it may well be this inside-drawn runner might be more of a placer than a winner, so let's check the place stats too...

...where again the top half of the field (2 to 7 actually) look strongest, but Arctician's Kempton numbers do include 4 places from 7 and Golden Sands looks well set for a decent run under these conditions, but will stall 1 be a help or a hindrance, as my next port of call is...

THE DRAW : where there appears to be a definite advantage in being drawn low if you look at the graph, but the actual numbers aren't really that far apart...

...and whilst those drawn closest to the rail might well have that advantage on paper, it's likely to boil down to how they use their stalls position and that's why we need to consider...

PACE : with those races above favouring those racing furthest forward...

Based on this field's most recent outings, Golden Sands and Intercessor look like being the ones trying to blast out (from stalls 1 and 13 respectively!) early to vy for the lead with Moai, Spirit of the Bay and Cliffs of Capri the early back markers...

Now although a low draw and a leading position are the two generally favoured options, the HEAT MAP says that high drawn leaders have gone best of all here. This is possibly due to those drawn lowest getting cramped for room on the turn, but they have still won more than their fair share here...

And when we apply that heat map to out racecard in draw order, the two front-runners at either end of the draw come up very favourably indeed...

Summary

I think that the top two in the market, Tollard Royal (best priced 5/2 at 5pm) and the 5/1 Arctician are probably the best runners in the race and if I was to suggest one of those, it'd be the in-form Arctician. The fav could well need a run after 204 days off track and it has been 18 months since an A/W run and that might just be the difference. Both are drawn in the same draw sector with similar pace profiles, so I'd be siding with the longer-priced form horse today.

I'm not massively confident, mind, so it'd be small stakes on Arctician and I'm more interested in the two pace horses from each end of the stalls. They're sure to go off quickly and might well grab themselves a decent, soft lead early doors. Both are in decent nick, both are priced attractively at 18/1 with Paddy Power/Betfair paying four places. so both Golden Sands and Intercessor could be decent E/W bets here. The latter has, of course been off the track for nearly six months, so that might reduce his chances, but he has previously won after a 353-day break and both of these receive weight from the rest of the field.

As for feature horse, Moai, not finishing last would be an achievement here!

Racing Insights, Tuesday 11/04/23

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Hi guys, hope you all had a great Easter. I certainly did and I'm ready to go again!

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the top five on the list would be of more immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 1.15 Exeter
  • 2.45 Exeter
  • 4.00 Pontefract
  • 6.45 Dundalk

Of all the 'free' races and those containing runners from The Shortlist, the 3.45 Exeter interests me most on what is frankly a pretty poor day of racing. Miss Fairfax and Raddon Top go in this one and it's a 12-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m7f on good to soft ground...

Ballydisco and Gerico Ville both won last time out and the latter has won two of his last three.Miss Fairfax, Ioupy Collonges, So Said I and Biowavego are all two from four and Come On Gruff is two from five, whilst Skandiburg and Ballymagroarty Boy are winless in 15 & 20 races respectively.

Most of these raced at this grade last time out, but the top two in the weights, Skandiburg & Miss Fairfax both drop a class here, as does So Said I. Hauraki Gulf is on handicap debut and it's only the second handicap outing for both Miss Fairfax and Ioupy Collonges.

Only three of this field (Miss Fairfax, So Said I & Raddon Top) have won at Exeter before and all have won over course and distance, whilst Skandiburg, Ballymagroarty Boy, Gerico Ville, Ballydisco and Biowavego have all won at this kind of trip elsewhere.

Most of the field have been out for a run inside the last five weeks or so, but both Come On Gruff and Biowavego were last seen in November of last year and might well need the run.

We have two mares in the race (Miss Fairfax & So Said I), seven previous good to soft winners and all bar Hauraki Gulf have won at Class 4, according to Instant Expert...

...where Ballymagroarty Boy definitely looks the weak link with a line of red. Skandiburg hasn't gone well on good to soft and prefers a shorter trip, whilst Hauraki Gulf's sole win was at Class 5. Shortlisted horse Raddon Top will relish most of the conditions, but would really want a downpour to come, as his best form is on soft or heavy ground.

Miss Fairfax has some good numbers, though, as do Ioupy Collonges, Gerico Ville and Snipe off admittedly small sample sizes.

This type of race has previously tended to suit those wanting to set the pace...

...which, based on recent outings is a definite positive for the likes of Ioupy Collonges, So Said I and Gerico Ville...

Summary

Fairly brief today, because I don't feel the need to dig too deep with a pair of outstanding candidates like Ioupy Collonges and Gerico Ville and I'd be rally surprised if they weren't the first two home. Both are in great form, both scored well on Instant Expert and both will be right up with the pace. Ioupy is the 3/1 fave with Gerico offering more value at 6's and I don't think they're that far apart personally and I'd probably side with Gerico Ville today.

He's proven at this trip and beyond and is only 2lbs higher than his LTO win, whilst Ioupy Collinges was beaten by over five lengths off this mark last time out and is asked for an extra 3½f here. He will win handicap races for sure, but I'm not convinced this one will be his first.

As for an E/W bet, So Said I might fit the bill at 16/1 with most bookies paying four places. She clearly needed the run at Chepstow last month after more than a year off but prior to her break, she had three wins and a place from her previous five outings, including a course and distance win here. She stays three miles, likes some cut in the ground and if up with the pace as expected could well hang on for a place.

Racing Insights, Friday 07/04/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for Friday, but I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Newcastle
  • 2.40 Lingfield
  • 3.25 Bath

As is generally the case, I shy away from the Flat in early April, so the Bath contest is a no-go for me and whilst the Lingfield race is a decent-looking Class 3 handicap, the first on the list is probably the best of the three and that's the 1.50 Newcastle, a 10-runner, Class 2 Conditions Stakes for 3 yr olds. It's over a straight 6f on standard tapeta and a first prize of over £77k awaits one of these...

The entire field has at least one win inside their last four outings with Danger Alert (2 from 3), Desert Cop, Michaela's Boy (2 from 2), Shaquille (2 from 2 and 3 from 4), Hello Queen (2 from 3 ) and Perdika (4 from 4) all winnig last time out.

Less than half of them raced at Class 2 last time out, as Danger Alert, Michaela's Boy, The X O and perdike all step up two classes, whilst Desert Cop raced at Class 5. Conversely, Shouldvebeenaring was beatenh by just over a length in a Listed contest and drops down here.

Perdika wears a tongue tie for the first time here and Michaela's Boy is the only one yet to win over today's trip, although he has won here at Newcastle over 5f, as has Glorious Angel with Hello Queen being our sole course and distance winner having won LTO five weeks ago.

Conditions Stakes mean they all carry 9st 7lbs except the three fillies, Glorious Angel, Hello Queen and Perdika. And with Perdika having the highest OR (104), she's best off at the weights, effectively 6lbs well in with second best Shouldvebeenaring. Desert Cop looks worst off, rated 25lbs worse than perdika, but carrying 5lbs more : that's a tough ask over 6f.

Shaquille might need a run after a four-month break, but aside from Desert Cop's 51-day absence, the others have all raced at least once in the last five weeks. Shaquille, however, is the only runner in the field with a Class 2 A/W win to his name, whilst Desert Cop is the only one without a standard going win. These details along with the course/distance/weight datea can be seen here in Instant Expert...

...from which, I'd say Shaquille, Hello Queen and Perdika caught my eye first. All three are drawn in stalls 7 to 10 with Shouldvebeenaring, but I'd need to check the draw stats to see if that is likely to have any bearing on the outcome...

The 'bias' doesn't appear to be huge with win% ranging from 8.38 to 11.75, but that's possibly bigger than it might seem with 11.75 equating to 140% of 8.38, so in real terms those drawn high are 40% more likely to win here over 6f assuming, of course, they get their tactics right and as with many straight A/W sprints, it has paid to be at the head of affairs...

...which, combined with the draw stats, makes the heat map fairly unsurprising...

If we then look at how the field have approached their most recent races...

...then I'd expect Michaela's Boy, Desert Cop, Shaquille, Glorious Angel and Perdika to be making the running and if we add those runners to our heat map and arrange the field into draw order, it doesn't look good for Shouldvebeenaring, but most of the field would be happy with their lot...

Summary

I expect Michaela's Boy to blast out and attempt to win from the front, but he's up two classes here and has all his best form over 5f. Desert Cop was weak finishing in two 7f contests before landing a Class 5 maiden over 6f last time out, but this is much tougher and might be too much of a step up too soon. Glorious Angel has the benefit of the 5lb allowance but has toiled in her last three UK and one French outing since winning here by a neck over 5f in January.

I don't really fancy any of those three to win and if I was to pick one of those, it would be Michaela's Boy as an E/W pick at a rather attractive 18/1 with Betfair/Paddy Power (or 14's with Hills paying four places).

As for my winner, I think I've narrowed down to Shaquille and Perdika. Both are in good form, Perdika is best off at the weights, both scored well (green) on Instant Expert with Perdika having the better numbers. Both are drawn high and both will race prominently and I'd expect both to be involved. That said, the 6/1 (Bet6365) Perdika appeals more than the 7/2 (Coral & Ladbrokes) Shaquille, so that's how I'd play it.

Good Luck & Happy Easter!

Please note, I'm away at a wedding on Good Friday, so no Saturday preview and I'm back with you on Monday afternoon/evening for Tuesday's racing.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 06/04/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.20 Bellewstown
  • 2.25 Hereford
  • 2.30 Bellewstown
  • 4.45 Hereford
  • 7.15 Clonmel

Unfortunately for me, that list is 60% Irish, leaving me with just the two Hereford races to consider and neither of those float my boat, as one's a maiden hurdle and the other a novice handicap, so I'll pass on both of those and I'll be back tomorrow!

Only joking, of course. As a man far more talented than I, once said "The Show Must Go On!" and with that in mind, I'm going to find another race to look at. I am, of course, self-impeded by my reluctance to play the Irish game and I don't really do the Flat in April, whilst the 'best' UK races on Thursday are at Class 4. So, a non-Flat, non-novice/maiden, non-Irish, Class 4 race is where we'll head and that takes us to the 6.30 Southwell, a 12-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard tapeta...

None of these won last time out, but Athmad was second attempting to complete a hat-trick, whilst Dubai Jeanius was also a runner-up after winning all five starts this year. Francesi and Kaaranah have been runing consistently well without quite winning.

Intervention is noted as a fast finisher here and Kingmania makes a debut for James Ferguson after leaving Chris Wall's yard. She now wears a hood for the first time, as does Kaaranah, who like Candy Warhol and Vaccine, is stepping up a class here, whilst My Silent Song is down two classes.

Our sole class dropper might, however, need the run after a break of 169 days, but he's not the only one who might be a bit race-rusty as Francesi, The Mouse King, Kingmania and Kaaranah have all been tucked away for five months or more, whereas the remaining seven have all raced in the last 7 to 37 days.

Chief's Will and Athmad are previous course and distance winners, whilst Dubai Jeanius is 4 from 4 over 1m3f/1m4f here. Intervention has won here over 6f and 7f with The Mouse King a Southwell winner at 7f on his only previous visit four starts ago (August '22). Elsewhere Francesi, Plastic Paddy, My Silent Song and Kaaranah have all won at a similar trip to this one.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, can verify those course/distance stats and also tell us that seven of this field share twenty-three previous A/W wins on standard going, but only two of them have won at Class 4. We also see that all seven A/W winners are running off higher marks than their last win, carrying 3lbs to 8lbs more here...

The in-form pair of  Dubai Jeanius and Athmad are the two that initially catch my eye from a positive point of view, whilst my concerns are starting to build about Plastic Paddy (class) and Intervention (going/class), whilst Chief's Will hasn't set the world alight at going/distance either. It's going to be hard for me to suggest any of that trio might win this from those stats, but the place stats might suggest they could make the frame?

Again Dubai Jeanius looks strong, but Athmad's numbers haven't really improved much, suggesting he's a win or bust type, perhaps. Plastic Paddy's line looks better, but still worse than most, whilst Candy Warhol looks like he'd be better off elsewhere, although his Flat record is just as uninspiring.

The draw here at Southwell on the Tapeta suggests that those drawn highest might have a bit of extra work to do to get round and win...

...which would put Kingmania, Candy Warhol and My Silent Song in a bit of trouble, but much would depend on how they approached the race from widest out. If they run like they have in their last few outings, I'd expect Candy Warhol to set off pretty quickly with Kingmania likely to settle in at the back of the pack with the in-form Dubai Jeanius...

Chief's Will looks like being our pacesetter with a clump of five or six tracking him and if we go back to those 40-odd races above that we drew the draw data from, we're informed that anything bar a hold-up position is OK here...

...which isn't the best news for Plastic Paddy, Athmad, Dubai Jeanius or Kingmania, which presents me with a dilemma.

Summary

I think Dubai Jeanius is the best horse in the race, but having to pass most of the field later in the contest has proven difficult here at Southwell and that throws a spanner in the works for me. He's 11/2 joint second fav and that's not long enough for an E/W bet and I'm unsure he can get round the field, so I'll have to look elsewhere.

Next on my list is Athmad, who'd be a good pick for a place normally, but he's drawn high enough (almost too high in #9) and is another hold-up type and like the runner above, 5/1 isn't E/W territory for me.

Francesi, however, was in solid form prior to a five month break, is drawn low and will race prominently. His place stats at going/class/distance put him right in the mix and at 6/1, he's probably the one I'd back to win and if I wanted a pair of small speculative E/W punts, then I'd be looking at the likes of Chief's Will & Intervention at 11's and 14's respectively, especially if you can get four places, as they're still going to have to compete with Dubai Jeanius and Athmad for the places.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 05/04/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.00 Wolverhampton
  • 4.15 Leopardstown
  • 4.35 Wincanton
  • 5.52 Leopardstown
  • 8.15 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted one trainer for 3-day form and one for course 5-year form as follows...

...and with Robert Walford's Amelia's Dance running in one of our 'free' races, it makes sense to look at the 4.35 Wincanton, an 8-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ Mares' Handicap Hurdle over a right-handed 1m7½f on good to soft ground...

None of these come here off the back of a win, but Lady Adare has won four of five career starts, No No Tonic has won two of her last six and Gentle Connections is four from six.

Gentle Connections, Puffin Bay and Somespring Special all step up one class, whilst Addosh is up two grades from the A/W, having failed to complete her last two over hurdles. Something Special is on handicap debut here, it's a second handicap run for Lady Adare.

Puffin Bay turns out for Harry Derham for the first time since leaving Oliver Sherwood and is also tongue-tied for the first time, whilst Lady Adare runs for the first time since a recent wind operation. All bar Amelia's Dance and Somespring Special have previously won over a similar trip and the three course winners, No No Tonic, Puffin Bay & Petticoat Lucy have all scored over course and distance.

In terms of recent activity, No No Tonic, Amelia's Dance, Somespring Special & Petticoat Lucy have all been out fairly recently (19-39 days), Addosh and Lady Adare have been off for 10/12 weeks respectively, whilst Gentle Connections hasn't raced since late October with Puffin Bay rested since July!

Instant Expert suggests that Lady Adare should enjoy the underfoot conditions, but makes us aware that this field haven't really proven themselves at Class 3...

...whilst place form looks like this...

From the place form, No No Tonic looks a decent proposition to make the frame, but at 16lbs above her last winning mark and 2lbs higher than her recent runner-up finish, she might be weighted out of a win. Gentle Connections' win and place from two Class 3 outings might be the best on offer, so let's have a quick look at how many Class 4 wins the field achieved...

...which again suggests that Lady Adare might well be the one best suited here with both Gentle Connections and Addosh faring well. I know from her run of wins that Lady Adare does like to race strongly up with the pace, but based on this field's most recent efforts, I don't think she'll be afforded an easy lead...

...with No No Tonic, Petticoat Lady, Gentle Connections and Puffin Bay all also liking to be near the head of affairs. Amelia's Dance has raced prominently in her last two and Somespring Special was up with the pace last time out, meaning we could have a bit of a tear-up here with Addosh probably the one sitting out the bunfight and that's probably not the best way to approach a short-distance contest here at Wincanton, if the following rings true...

...and I think I'm probably best sticking with the top half of the pace graphic ie  No No Tonic, Lady Adare, Petticoat Lucy and Gentle Connections.

Summary

Having split the field in half for a four-runner shortlist, let's have a quick look at the quartet...

LADY ADARE won a bumper, a maiden hurdle and two novice hurdles in her first four career starts before finishing 6th of 9, beaten by 26 lengths at Taunton on handicap debut in January. That run was off a mark of 130 and came after a break of 321 days. She's had the benefit of that run, has had a wind op and is rated 3lbs lower, so shouldn't be discounted

NO NO TONIC won here over course and distance (she's 211 over C&D) on Boxing Day and was a runner-up in back to back February outings at Chepstow, before being pulled up at Fakenham last time out. She's a pound lighter here and a return to her favoured track-trip might be all she needs.

GENTLE CONNECTIONS won a 2m5f maiden hurdle at Southwell almost a year ago and follwed that up with a hat-trick of novice hurdle wins in May/June. Two unsuccessful runs since that you could make an excuse for (1 at Gr2 and 1 over three miles!), but now rated at 117, the same as her last win, she has to enter calculations.

PETTICOAT LUCY was the three length winner of a 15-runner course and distance contest here on Boxing Day 2021 on just her second effort over hurdles, but has failed to win since, finishing P84P43, but did go well at Chepstow last time out, when beat 3rd of 12, beaten by less than 4 lengths off a pound heavier than today.

I'm not sure that the above has really clarified things, but it does suggest that we might well have a really competitive affair on our hands. I think any of the four could win and they all have the right pace profile, so I should probably walk away and advise NO BET, but if I was to have or even just advice a bet, I'd consider the market for any possible value and as it looks like this...

Lady Adare 9/4 (Bet365/Hills)
No No Tonic 15/2 (Hills)
Petticoat Lucy 9/1 (Hills)
Gentle Connections (14/1 Bet365)

I'd probably swerve the fav and suggest small stakes E/W bets on any or all of the other three.

Good Luck!

Racing Insights, Tuesday 04/04/23

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Apologies for the lack of a preview of Monday's racing, but I was down at Wembley watching my beloved Bolton Wanderers win the much-coveted Papa Johns Football League Trophy and there'll be no column on Good Friday for Easter Saturday either, as I'm at a wedding all day, but now to what I am able to provide...

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Sadly, we have no qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist, but as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.15 Thirsk
  • 2.30 Fontwell
  • 3.15 Thirsk

Now, I tend not to get involved too much with Flat racing in April, so it's a bit of a Hobson's Choice today, as I'll be looking at the 2.30 Fontwell, a 5-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase over 2m2f on heavy ground, that is soft in places. Dry weather is forecast, so the ground might ease...

BALLINGERS CORNER finished 133 in his three hurdles runs in the 20/21 season, but didn't run for over 22 months before making a chase (and handicap) debut at Ludlow a month ago. She didn't jump too well and went right, made a fair few errors and eventually was last home of seven beaten by 35 lengths.

BLACKO won a couple of Class 4 juvenile hurdles in his first two starts (Dec/Jan 19/20), but struggled raised in class thereafter. Switched to chasing in February this year, he landed a 3-runner Class 3 beginners' contest by 4 lengths at Leicester, but was last home of four at Leicester last time out.

HECTOR JAGUEN failed to make the frame in four over hurdles, but did finish third in his first two over fences in Jan/Feb of this year. It wasn't third time lucky though, as he unseated his rider at Plumpton three weeks ago and he now steps up in class.

SHAW'S CROSS also steps up in class here, but he does have the benefit of a win over a similar trip, when scoring over Plumpton's 2m1½f in January this year. has finished fourth in both runs since without looking like winning and a 35 length defeat a fortnight ago was disappointing. The step up in class can't help, surely?

BEN BRODY won three races and made the frame twice in a purple patch of form (3151P12) from mid-December 2020 to Boxing Day 2021. but has pretty much flopped since, with seven unplaced efforts reducing his mark down from 105 to today's 81. He runs from 1lb out of the handicap, but is rated some 18lbs lower than his last chase success.

In addition to the above details, both Blacko and Ben Brody are former soft/heavy ground winners, whilst Blacko is 2 from 3 in this grade. Ballingers Corner has also won at Class 4. We already know that Ben Brody is way below his last winning mark, but Blacko is now also 2lbs lower than when winning two starts ago!

Historically, the key to winning a race like this here at Fontwell has been to get out sharpish and control the tempo of the race from the front. Those that haven't been able to lead have been advised to stay as close to the leader(s) as possible if they want to make the frame and here's the breakdown...

...stats that, when you look at how this field have raced recently, would suggest Blacko and Ballingers Corner might well be the ones setting the fractions...

Summary

Small field with little to write about today, but Blacko ticks more boxes for me than the others. He won two starts ago and now runs off a lower mark, he's proved in this grade and won't be too concerned about the soft underfoot conditions. He's likely to be the front runner, which is ideal for Fontwell and at 6/1 (Bet365 @ 4.25pm), he looks quite long in a 5-horse race. You could take a quarter odds E/W, if you wanted, but that's not for me.

Hector Jaguen is the current 15/8 favourite, but he'd need to improve dramatically to win here in my opinion and whilst he might well put a decent effort in, the likes of the 7/2 Shaw's Cross at the bottom of the weights might just surprise him.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 01/04/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

...plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 2.17 Stratford
  • 3.05 Bellewstown
  • 5.00 Kempton
  • 6.30 Chelmsford
  • 7.00 Chelmsford

From which, we have a Class 2 race on the 'free' list and also one on the TJC list. The former is worth considerably more than the latter, so we're off to Essex for the 7.00 Chelmsford, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo A/W Conditions Stakes over a left-handed mile on standard polytrack...

Plenty of in-form runners here to consider, as you'd expect for a race of this standard with Physique winning last time out, Think Climate winning his last two, Bold Act & Iconic Moment have won three on the spin, whilst Brave Emperor has been first past the post in his last five efforts, even if he was demoted to second two starts ago. Stormy Entry is two from three and Coco jack/Tenjin are the ones who probably look weakest on recent results alone.

LTO winner Physique does step up two classes here, though, which will make life tougher as will a three step rise for hat-trick seeking Think Climate, but stablemates Iconic Moment and New Defifintion ran at Class 1 four weeks ago resulting in a James Tate-trained 1-2 in a Listed race with the pair separated by just a short head with the re-opposing Tenjin a length further back.

Only Brave Emperor (over 6f), Iconic Moment (7f) and Think Climate (7f) have won here at Chelmsford so far, whilst Bold Act (at Kempton & Newmarket), Brave Emperor (Kempton) and Stormy Entry (Dundalk) have all won over the one-mile trip. All bar three of the field have raced insde the last four weeks but Think Climate, Physique and Bold Act are returning from layoffs of 116, 155 and 191 days respectively.

It's a conditions stakes contest, so they all carry the same weight (9st 7lbs), meaning that the trio of Bold Act, Brave Emperor and Iconic Moment are best off at the weights, being rated at 101. Alzahir and New Definition are only officially rated one pound worse, but Stormy Entry and Think Climate are considered to be some 12/13 pounds worse than the top-rated trio.

Instant Expert has more stats for us, such as highlighting the six runners sharing eleven standard going wins between them and showing just one previous Class 2 A/W winner...

Brave Emperor is the obvious standout here along with Iconic Moment and I suspect that this pair are very likely to be amongst the ones we should be considering for our winner, whilst Tenjin doesn't appear to be well suited at all. Brave Emperor and Iconic Moment are both in the lower half of the draw in stalls 3 & 5 respectively...

...which is the better place to be, as the higher drawn runners have fared much worse than those in stalls 1 to 6. Draw, of course, isn't the be all and end all, especially here at Chelmsford, where the old adage is "get out quick and stay out", but is that really the case? Let's check...

Well, that's a definite yes! The further forward you race, the better the chance of a win/place, so let's consider the most recent pace profiles of the field...

...which suggests that Brave Emperor is likely to be front and centre here, along with some company, of course. Iconic Moment, however, may have to negotiate traffic later on if he's to succeed. Brave Emperor is therefore a low drawn leader and that looks ideal for this contest...

Think Climate will probably go hard early on, but the layoff might well take its toll and this is a big step up for Physique.

Summary

Iconic Moment looks a class act, but I'm not sure his running style lends itself to Chelmsford, so that hands the initiative to Brave Emperor who has ticked boxes throughout the process and at 9/2 could offer some real value. I expect Iconic Moment to be finishing fast, but I'm hoping he doesn't quite get there, but this pair could well be the first two home.

Racing Insights, Friday 31/03/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded four qualifiers for Friday...

...and I can also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.25 Wetherby
  • 4.40 Wexford
  • 4.50 Southwell
  • 5.55 Southwell
  • 6.10 Wexford

Of the free UK races and the three featuring H4C runners, the 3.25 Wetherby is the highest rated as a 10-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed two miles on soft ground...

Dare To Shout has won two from three so far (runner-up in the other) and is the form horse and only LTO winner in the contest, whilst Fransham, Albert's Back and Uhtred are all winless in six. Top weight Celestyal Horizon has been pulled up in four of his last five.

He does, however, drop down a level here, as do Front View, Uhtred and Dancewiththewind. Dare To Shout goes the opposite direction on his handicap debut, whilst both Hardy du Seuil (first-time cheekpieces here) and Sizing Pottsie are both dropping down from Class 1 action LTO witht he former having won at Class 2 two starts ago.

All ten have already won over today's with three of them (Fransham, Albert's Back and Dancewiththewind) having won over course and distance. Bottom weight Pyramid Place has also won here in the past, landing a 2m4f hurdle.

None of these are coming off really long layoffs with Fransham's 11-week absence the longest, as half of the field have raced inside the last three weeks and seven have been seen this month alone.

In addition to those stats, Instant Expert tells us that all bar Celestial Horizon, Dare To Shout and Dancewiththewind have already scored on soft ground and that half of the field (Fransham, Hardy du Seuil, Albert's Back, Dancewiththewind & Pyramid Place) are former Class 3 winners...

Our Pace Analyser tells us that those setting the tempo of similar races have done pretty well, but that the optimum racing postiion is to track the leaders in a prominent position...

...with hold-up horses having a lamentable record here at 1 in 80! Based on the field's most recent outings, that hold-up stat really isn't good news for Sizing Pottsie, Uhtred and/or Pyramid Place in a contest where I expect Dancewiththewind to set the pace with a target on his back for the likes of Hardy du Seuil, Front View and Dare to Shout...

Summary

I can see Dancewiththewind trying to make all to win for the third time in four starts to land a second course and distance win, but his front-running tactics make him a target for Hardy du Seuil, Front View and Dare to Shout. I don't particularly like Front View, as he's in poor form (just one win in nine over the last three years) and doesn't win often enough on soft ground.

I'd expect the leader to be overhauled by both Hardy du Seuil and Dare To Shout, but at 12/1 (Bet365 , 3 places) or 10/1 (SkyBet, 4 places) Dancewiththe wind looks a viable E/W prospect at 10.30pm on Thursday, which begs the question about who wins. Dare to Shout is the form horse, finishing 211 in his three starts so far but all at a lower grade than this. Hardy du Seuil, on the other hand, drops down from Class 1 to run here, won a Class 2 two starts ago and was a Grade 2 runner-up over fences last year.

I think the latter is a 'better' horse than the former and I'll take quality/experience over form today with the 9/2 (generally) Hardy du Seuil to edge it over the 9/4 (gen) Dare To Shout.

Racing Insights, Thursday 30/03/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.45 Hexham
  • 2.50 Limerick
  • 3.00 Warwick
  • 4.17 Naas
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton

...and the highest rated of the three UK free races is the 2.45 Hexham, a 5-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed two miles on heavy ground...

DELUXE RANGE was last seen three months ago finishing out of the places a class higher than this and runs for the first time since having wind surgery. Jockey and yard work well together (see below). Sadly the horse has failed to win any of its last thirteen and would probably prefer a longer trip.

BEAT BOX was a Class 5 winner at this trip three starts ago after having a wind op and was then second when stepped up two classes next time out, but was well beaten at Class 5 last time around and will need to improve back up in class.

HORN CAPE comes from a yard in decent form that has done well here at this venue and has found a few winners for today's jockey. This 6yr old was a nine-length winner over just half a furlong further last time out, getting off the mark in style but is now up in class and carries a 7lb penalty for the win.

MISS LAMB also won last time out (over course and distance) for a third win in a seven-race career that has seen this race's only mare finish outside the first three home just once (3 wins) and will seek to improve her yard's already excellent record at this venue off what looks a fairly lenient mark for her handicap debut.

I DOUBT THAT has failed to make the frame in seven races on turf (4 x flat & 3 x hurdles), but finished 1712 in four A/W starts, winning at 1m4f and 2m, along with a 2m runner-up spot two starts ago. Second to last of eleven over hurdles (74 lengths) last time out, though. hard to fancy on handicap debut, but does receive 20, 14, 13 and 9 pounds weight from his four opponents.

At this stage, it looks to me like Horn Cape and Miss Lamb would be the two to focus on and we're probably not getting any decent odds on either of them winning! Instant Expert favours the mare here on win stats...

...with Beat Box a regular placer over today's trip...

Neither Beat Box nor Horn Cape have fared well at Class 4, but Miss Lamb certainly looks the one to beat here. Based on recent outings, she's likely to be prominent early on and I suspect Deluxe range might well keep her company, whilst Beat Box is the probable early back marker...

If we then look at how similar races here at Hexham have gone...

...then that's not great news for Beat Box, assuming we have a truly run race and all horses behave as they have previously.

Summary

Short and hopefully sweet today, with the mare Miss Lamb being the one to beat for me at 13/8 (Hills was the only price available at 4.15pm). She ticks boxes in every bit of analysis we've done and should take this in her stride off a mark of 110. Horn Cape is probably the best of the rest, but up in class and weight here and doesn't really appeal at 6/4. That's probably the 1-2, but the 15/2 Beat Box might make a better E/W bet, based on his results at this trip and he doesn't seem to mind heavy ground.

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 29/03/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.20 Lingfield
  • 4.35 Navan
  • 4.45 Newcastle
  • 8.00 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following...

...and with James Fanshawe's sole entry above running in one of our 'free' races, I think I should attempt to assess the chances of Novel Legend in the 8.00 Kempton, a 7-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed two miles on standard to slow polytrack...

None of these won last time out, but Blazeon Five, First Emperor, Sarsons Risk and Novel Legend were all runners-up with the first three of that quartet winning two of their last five. Hydroplane & Vazir both won three starts ago, but Grandmaster Flash has eleven defeats on the bounce and hasn't made the frame in his last six.

None of this field raced at a lower grade last time out with Blazeon Five, Grandmaster Flash and fast-finisher Novel Legend all running at this Class 4 level. First Emperor was second at Class 3 with Vazir unplaced at that grade, Hydroplane was third at Class2, whilst Sarsons Risk was a faller in a Grade 2 hurdle, having won a Class 4 contest previously.

Hydroplane and Grandmaster Flash have both won over today's trip in the past with Blazeon Five and First Emperor having scored over this track & trip. As for results on standard to slow going and/or at Class 4, Instant Expert helps us to fill the gaps...

...where aside from indifferent results at this grade, Blazeon Five and First Emperor are the ones to catch the eye. The place stats are useful here, as they suggest that Blazeon Five might not actually be a blow out at Class 4, having finished 1222 in his last four efforts at this level...

At this point, I'd be making a mental note that the out of form pair, grandmaster Folash & Vazir should be discounted from my thoughts and I'd have doubts about First Emperor being good enough to run at this grade.

In a smallish field over two miles, the draw really shouldn't be able to make or break a runner's chance, so this aspect of the toolkit is probably not as important as usual, but for clarity/transparency, we should take a look anyway...

I wouldn't read too much into the suggestion there's a low draw bias here, as the figures are very much skewed by a disproportionate number of winners from stall 1 and my thoughts are that the actual tempo of the race would dictate who goes best. For the record, those races above have been won by horses running as follows...

With mid-divisional to prominent runners faring best of all. We can look back at this field's last few runs to see how they might approach this one...

..but with many of them wanting to run in that mid-division zone, it doesn't actually help us solve the riddle.

Summary

When the draw and pace stats can't help us, then I generally fall back upon recent form and Instant Expert's suitability overview and if that's what I do here, the obvious choice to me is Blazeon Five, with three wins and three runner-up finishes from his last six. Four of those have been over course and distance where his form reads 1122 and whilst not wanting to disparage his previous riders, the booking of William Buick looks a positive move.

At 5.30pm Blazeon Five was 11/4 joint fav with featured horse, Novel Legend and I prefer the former to the latter. The latter has every chance of making the frame here if showing no rustiness from a five month break and they'll probably be the first two home. No E/W suggestion here.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 28/03/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with a couple of 'possibles' to consider in the Black Country. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.45 Hexham
  • 4.15 Hexham
  • 6.00 Wolverhampton

...and although it's not a great race, it does make sense to consider the chances of a  horse, On The Right Track, in a 'free race' ie the 6.00 Wolverhampton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4f on standard tapeta...

None of these come here in any great form, although Belle of Annandale & Haven Lady were both runners-up on their last outings, whilst the latter along with Hashtagmetoo are the only pair to have won any of their last five and they seem to be the most consistent of this bunch.

All bar Iron Heart (down two classes) and This One's For Fred (down one) were in Class 6 action last time around and seven of the field have raced ion the last four weeks. The exceptions to this are Belle of Annandale & The Shortlist horse On The Right Track who now return from breaks of 173 and 239 days respectively and may well need the run.

Kentucky Kingdom, This One's For Fred and Tio Mio are former course winners (at 1m1½f, 1m6f & 1m1½f), whilst Haven Lady and Iron Heart have previous wins over a mile and a half. Belle of Annandale has won at neither track nor trip, but Hashtagmetoo, Starfighter and On The Right Track are all course and distance winners.

Instant Expert also tells us that all bar Belle of Annandale have won on standard A/W and that all bar Belle of Annandale and Iron Heart have won a Class 6 A/W contest...

On the immediate face of it, The Shortlist horse On The Right Track is the eyecatcher, but that optimism has to be tempered by the fact that he hasn't won a race for almost 18 months, although he's now weighted to go well. Obvious concerns surface about Haven Lady, Starfighter, This One's For Fred & Tio Mio on the going, This One's For Fred on Class and both Hashtagmetoo & Starfighter on the trip, but as there's a lack of green above, let's look at place form...

...where again On The Right Track looks best placed but with the same caveats as before. This One's For Fred looks the weakest here and I think we'd probably be best focusing on those with any green on Going, Class, Course and/or Distance, so that's not good for Belle of Annandale (again), Haven lady or Iron Heart.

Other than not getting hampered or cut-up on the bends, there shouldn't really be a massive draw bias in a 9-runner contest over a mile and a half, but let's check the actual stats...

...and they do seem to back up my theory, that aside from a slight disadvantage in the lower quarter of the draw, there shouldn't be too much in it and it's a similar story with pace. Hold-up horses have struggled to make up ground here, but thise racing any further forward all seem to have a decent enough chance of getting involved...

...which based on recent outings...

...wouldn't bode well for the likes of Kentucky Kingdom, Tio Mio or Iron heart and if we use a three-race sample size and arrange the field in draw order using those draw/pace stats abo, we can generate this heatmap...

Summary

It's Hashtagmetoo here for me. He's running consistently well, scores well on Instant Expert for places, is well drawn and has a good pace profile. He won over course and distance earlier this month and looks the most likely to me.

No prices out as of 3.10pm Monday, so I'll check back in later and update and also add an E/W option, if there's a viable price.

Update, Hashtagmetoo opened up at 15/2 with Skybet & Hills not long after 5pm, so he's the E/W pick for me.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 24/03/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded the following...

...and this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.15 Hereford
  • 2.50 Hereford
  • 3.00 Musselburgh
  • 6.30 Dundalk

And I think we really need to look at Elzaam in the 8.15 Newcastle, which is a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard going tapeta. He has raced at this class, track and trip nine times so far in handicaps and his results read 332211311! From those nine races he is 1311 under today's jockey Graham Lee, 311 in fields of 12+ runners and he's 11311 in his last five career runs, incidentally all here over course and distance.

Here's the card...

As you can see, he's one of just two (in-form Enraged being the other) LTO winners but five of his rivals (Primo's Comet, Enraged, Kraken Power, Nellie French & Another Angel) have also won over course and distance.

Most of his rivals (except Impressor @ 112 dlsr) have raced in the last five weeks and Shabaaby, Primo's Comet & Enraged all drop in class to run here in what will be just Madam Arkati's second run in a handicap.

As you'd expect, Elzaam dominates the Instant Expert section of the card...

...but a few others do at least have some creditable numbers behind them. There is however a large number of red boxes with horses having poor results from a fair large sample size ie Araifjan on the going, One Hart (track), Primo's Comet (going/track/trip), Mews House (going/trip), Marwari (going), Nellie French (track) and Another Angel (class). To be honest, I do see it as a negative if your percentages are still that low after 10 or more attempts. Hopefully the place stats will show some of these in a better light...

A simplistic view here is that Elzaal, Enraged, Kraken Power and Marwari might be the ones to make a shortlist from, although you could still make a case for a few others. That said, Primo's Comet and Impressor do look like they might well struggle.

Elzaal is drawn in stall 11 of 14 on a track/trip where not only have high draws prevailed most often, but stall 11 has been the most successful of all...

And he has been drawn in 10 or higher in three of his four course and distance wins to date. So, Elzaal is in great form, he's the course/distance expert and has got a great draw, so here's the downside? Well, if there is one it's the fact that he's likely to have pass most of his rivals late on if he's to win again, as recent runs suggest he's likely to be held up for a late run...

...and that's not generally the way to win such races here at Newcastle, if we refer back to those races we used for the draw stats...

So, the main possible negative is that he runs from a career-high mark with a possible poor pace profile, but he has won his last two here from the back of the field suggesting he might be the exception to the rule and if we're looking for high drawn leaders, I suppose that's Another Angel in #13, who might well give Elzaal a good two into the race from wide.

Summary

I really can't see Elzaal not making the frame here, especially with most firms paying four places, but at 6/1 he's not E/W material for me. The biggest challenges will probably come from in-form class dropper Enraged (current 5/1 fav) and Kraken Power who can be had at 2.50pm at 17/2 with Hills, which would probably be my E/W play.

Kraken Power was just a nose behind Enraged when they met here last month and with Kraken Power a pund better off here, it's sure to be tight between the pair and then when you add the late run from Elzaal, we could have a cracking finish. Any of the three could get it on the nod, but if I stuck my neck out, it'd be with featured horse Elzaal.

Please note, I'm off to Oslo this (Thursday) evening, returning home on Monday, so the next Racing Insights column will be for Tuesday's racing (28th).

Racing Insights, Thursday 23/03/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.05 Cork
  • 2.35 Chepstow
  • 3.50 Cork
  • 5.20 Ludlow

The first of the two UK races above is a Novice event, so I'm going to have a look at the 5.20 Ludlow, a 7-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle taking in 11 flights over a right-handed 2m5½f on good to soft ground, that is soft in places with showers forecast...

My initial thoughts were that Your Band might be out of his depth, but that the other half dozen might well only be separated by a few points in the market, giving us a nice competitive contest.

Sole mare Malaita is the only LTO winner in the field, but she's up a class here, as is Duke of Moravia, who made the frame last time and now makes a second handicap appearance. It's also Amrons Sage's second crack at a handicap, whilst Spring Meadow is on handicap debut.

Top-weight Whatsupwithyou was a runner-up less than three weeks ago and now drops in class, whilst Spring Meadow and No No Tango also made the frame last time. Duke of Moravia has been away from the track the longest at almost twelve weeks, but that's no real cause for concern.

The mare Malaita is the only former course winner, having landed a bumper in May 2021 on her second career start, whilst Whatsupwithyou's win at Ascot on debut in December 2019 is the only win at this trip achieved by the entire field. Feature of the day Instant Expert also tells us that just two of the seven have won on good to soft or soft ground so far and that just three of them are Class 4 winners...

Spring Meadow looks strongest here in a weak set of results, but we'll probably learn more from place form...

My main concerns here are Whatsupwithyou on the softer ground, yet closer analysis is contradictory. He's made the frame in four of vive on good ground, so you'd say he wants it quicker than this, but his win on debut was over this trip on heavy ground. Elsewhere, Malaita might struggle with the quality of the race, as her best form (inc that LTO win) has been at Class 5, but she was a runner-up at Hereford thirteen months ago off just one pound lower than today.

She won from the front last time out and is likely to be up with the pace again here, if her last four outings are anything to go by (see below), but this might be tricky, now she's up in trip by 3.5 furlongs. Of the others, No No Tango looks the likeliest to be the early back-marker...

...and back-markers have fared worst in similar past races, according to our pace analyser...

...which looks weighted towards leaders.

Summary

Overall, the two I like(d) best are/were Whatsupwithyou and No No Tango, but neither come without risks. The former hasn't gone well on good to soft/soft ground, but has won on heavy. He's got a good pace profile for this contest, has won at this trip, is in decent form and drops in class. The latter is a regular placer in good nick, but might well be left with too much to do.

Aside from this two, Spring Meadow also made some appeal with two wins and a place from his last four and a prominent racing style, but his jumping hasn't been great and he's hardly thrown in off a mark of 188 for his handicap debut, so I'll stick with my initial pair and side with the 9/2 Whatsupwithyou to edge out the equally-priced No No Tango.

 

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 22/03/23

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Wednesday's free GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss.

Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way! And as ever, we ask you to please refer to our User Guide for further information.

In addition to the TS report, we also have the following fully functional free racecards...

  • 3.25 Warwick
  • 4.10 Haydock
  • 4.25 Ffos Las

My own personal settings for the TS report ...

...have generated the following...

...with both Your Own Story & the veteran Le Coeur Net running in one of our free races. Your Own Story's race look a better one on paper, so let's head towards the 4.10 Haydock, a 10-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left handed 3m4½f on soft ground...

Featured horse Your Own Story is the one of the ten to have won last time out, but all bar Shanty Alley, Equus Dreamer and Juge Et Parti have won at least once in their last five outings with No Cruise yet winning two of five and The Questioner two of three. Burbank, however has failed to complete the last three, Sam's Adventure hasn't finished his last two, Shanty Alley has two incompletes from five as does Fortified Bay.

In-form The Questioner is up in class here, but Shanty Alley, Sam's Adventure, Rath An Iuir and No Cruise Yet all drop down a level. Sam's Adventure is turned back out after just three days, as he unseated at the first at Carlisle, whilst Equus Dreamer's ten week break is the longest of the ten runners.

No Cruise Yet is the only one of the ten to have won over a similar trip to this, achieved via a course and distance win here three starts ago, whilst Sam's Adventure's 3m2f chase success in December 2019 is the only other Haydock win mustered by this field. Mind you, four of them have never even tackled a fence here, as shown by Instant Expert...

 

...where class dropper No Cruise Yet is the obvious eyecatcher, even at 7lbs above his last win. Fortified bay has some good numbers, but struggled off today's mark LTO and I should mention The Questioner, who has no relevant chase form under these conditions, but is unexposed after just two runs over fences. He won on debut, landing a 3m2f contest at Doncaster, which earned him a 6lb rise to a mark of 103 from which he duly finished third in the 3m6½f North Wales National at Bangor 12 days ago, going down by just four lengths, suggesting today's trip shouldn't be an issue and he's a soft ground winner over hurdles.

Based on similar recent races here at Haydock, you'd want to be on a horse that's up with the pace...

...and based on this field's last few outings...

...that's more good news for No Cruise Yet and Fortified Bay.

Summary

The bookies have Your Own Story (5/2) No Cruise Yet (4/1) and The Questioner (5/1) as the market principals and that's probably fair as they're the best three in the race in my opinion. That said, it's rare that the top three in the market are the first three home, so if one was to falter, that might open the door for Fortified Bay as an E/W bet, who might well outrun his 16/1 ticket (as of 6.30pm) and could be worth a quid or two, especially if your bookie pays four places.

As for the winner? It's No Cruise Yet for me at 4/1, he's in good form, scored best on Instant Expert and has the ideal pace profile for this race.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 21/03/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

We do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.15 Wetherby
  • 3.50 Market Rasen
  • 4.25 Market Rasen
  • 4.50 Clonmel

Small fields everywhere in the UK and not much of note to discuss, but I'm going take a quick look at the 4.25 Market Rasen, as it seems the 'best' of the free races to look at. It's a Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m7f on soft ground and these are the five runners set to go to post...

MADE FOR YOU has finished 51122 in five starts here and was a winner at Musselburgh three races ago, scoring by 8 lengths in early December. Hasn't been anywhere near that level in two runs since (PU and 5th of 6) and will need to improve to be involved here, you'd think.

THE KNIPHAND looked a better horse when stepped up to 3m+ last December, winning back to back handicaps at Doncaster seven weeks apart. Things didn't go to plan last time out at Chepstow, but he was up two classes and should stand a better chance here now back down in grade.

BOLD SOLDIER makes a handicap debut here after being the runner-up in three of four efforts over hurdles so far and was beaten by less than two lengths over 3m on soft/heavy ground at Uttoxeter last time out. He was headed with half a furlong to go and the slightly shorter trip and slightly better ground here could help him land a first win in a first time tongue tie, as might the booking of a 7lb claimer who has finished 1271 in his last four.

STORM DENNIS won back to back 2m5f contests in Jan/Feb of last year before a seven month break. He was then last of five, beaten by twenty lengths on chase debut before reverting to hurdles on Boxing Day in a 10 length defeat when 6th of 15 over 2m5f at Kempton. Unproven at the trip and might need the run, but off a workable mark, the same as his last win.

RIPPER ROO had a good 20/21 season, finishing as a runner-up on his sole bumper outing before a run of form reading 2331 over hurdles, culminating in a win here over 2m5f. Then off track for the thick end of 20 months, he hasn't looked the same in three efforts over fences, beaten by 31 and 43 lengths before being puled up last time out. Might do better back over hurdles, but hard to be confident about his chances.

Not much soft ground form to write home about, but The Kniphand and Made For You both have multiple wins at this level and Made For You really likes it here at Market Rasen, but has struggled with the trip, unlike The Kniphand, but he's now 6lbs higher than his last win, whilst from a place perspective, it's Storm Dennis who looks the weakest...

With these small fields on tricky ground, you often get a falsely run race, but if this field run how they have in their most recent outings, then I'd expect the first part of the race to see them in this kind of order...

...although Storm Dennis might well be the one to lead out and I'm unsure about Ripper Roo. Made For You looks like one who'll be waited with, though. The pace might not actually be as important here as it is on other days, as it looks like this kind of race can be won from anywhere...

...the mid-div numbers are obviously skewed in a such a small sample size, but my take here is that if pace is no real advantage, then the horse best suited to conditions 'should' be the one to back.

Summary

The pair I think I'd want to be with in a race like this are the two I highlighted from Instant Expert, Made For You and The Kniphand. Neither tick all the boxes, as explained earlier, but there's a big discrepancy in price. Made For You has the ability to win this race, but is out of form, so the cheekpieces are going back and at 9/1, he's the outsider of the five, but might be worth a small (and I mean small) E/W bet here.

Otherwise, I have no play in the game.