Racing Insights, Wednesday 01/02/23

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In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

• 1.35 Exeter
• 2.17 Dundalk
• 4.02 Dundalk
• 4.30 Exeter

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated just one runner on 1 year form and another two runners on 30-day form...

...and as the last of those three 'possibles', Oscars Moonshine, runs in the last of our 'free' races, it makes sense to have a quick look at the 4.30 Exeter, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m7f on good to soft ground...

Sacre Coeur won last time out, Top of the Bill won two starts ago and Ocasrs Moonshine, Sporting Ace and Longshanks have all also won at least one in five. Sporting Ace looks the most consistent on results, whilst Longshanks has failed to complete his last three runs, Padleyourowncanoe hasn't finished either of his last two and Buckhorn George has been pulled up in three of his last five.

Top of the Bill, Astigar, Oscars Moonshine and Longshanks all drop a class, whilst top-weight Padleyourowncanoe drops two levels for his yard debut after leaving the Skeltons. Top of the Bill wears cheekpieces for the first time whilst Astigar has a second crack at a handicap after a 20 length defeat at Cheltenham.

Oscars Moonshine has won here over course and distance with Padleyourowncanoe (2m1f hurdle), Longshanks (2m3f chase) and Chloe's Court (2m6f hurdle) also previously successful at this track, whilst Top of the Bill has won over three miles at Chepstow.

None of the field are turned out quickly and none are coming off long breaks with all having run in the last 24-82 days. We know that we've four course winners, but Instant Expert also highlights four good to soft NH winners, seven Class 4 winners and five who have scored at 2m6f to 3m...

Padleyourowncanoe has a reasonable set of numbers there, but would prefer it softer and comes here on a run of 12 defeats stretching back almost two years, hence him now being 13lbs lower than his last win.

Top of the Bill has a win and a place from 6 over hurdles after placing in four bumpers. He did win over 3m at Chepstow on good to soft in December and although 5lbs higher than that win, he's a class lower.

Sacre Coeur finally got off the mark over hurdles in the UK last time out, but has won over hurdles and fences in France. He's only up 3lbs for that win, but I am slightly concerned at his failure to get round in four of twelve starts.

Astigar is lightly raced under today's conditions, but has a line of red on Instant Expert after failed to win any of five starts. His best run came when second here a year ago, but that was over a trip some 5.5f shorter than today and he struggled to see 2m5f out last time.

Oscars Moonshine has 3 wins and a place from ten over hurdles, but the three wins came in a 12-day purple patch in October 2020, after having failed to make the frame in his first five career starts. He was off a year after those wins and was a runner-up on his return in October '21. He then didn't race for 11 months and has been beaten by 15L and 17L in two races this season. He gets the trip but isn't in form.

Sporting Ace looks the one to beat for me so far and has run consistently well over the last 13 months, finishing 21 in two bumpers and then 11223 over hurdles. Trip is no issue with a 3m win under his belt and a mark of 115 doesn't look stiff. Down 3f today which will also help.

Longshanks is 1 from 5 over hurdles and 1 from 8 over fences and was pulled up & then unseated his rider in his last two chases, before reverting to hurdles at Wincanton in January. He was in the process of going well before falling two out and this inability to complete allied with a step up in trip gives me grounds for concern.

What About Time won on hurdles debut (2m4f) at Uttoxeter in Mid-November 2020 and then had almost a year off followed by two indifferent runs inside a month. Another 11 month break followed and he returned to finish just 8th of 12 at Ludlow last November, beaten by 22 lengths, but showed some positive signs when an 8.5 length runner-up on Boxing Day at Huntingdon. Has potential but lacks consistency.

Buckhorn George hasn't completed six of his last eight starts including a fall here in November 2021 and five times pulled up, He was second at Fontwell almost a year ago, but that run looks to be the exception to the norm in a run of results reading PFPP2P4P (the 4 was 4th of 5, beaten by 19 lengths)

Chloe's Court won here over 2m6f on soft ground just over two years ago, but has only won a total of 2 races from 25 attempts. Her record at Class 4 is abject and she comes here off the back of a 40+ lengths defeat at Hereford.

So far, the three I'm most interested in are (alphabetically) Sacre Coeur, Sporting Ace and Top of the Bill and if recent outings are anything to go by, Sacre Coeur and Top of the Bill will have to launch their bids for victory from the back of the field, whereas Sporting Ace is expected to be one of the front-runners...

...in a type of race that has served front-runners very well indeed...

Summary

Alphabetically Sacre Coeur, Sporting Ace and Top of the Bill are the three I'd want against the field here and with Sporting Ace being in the best progressive form of the three and also having the most suitable pace profile, he'd be the one to beat in my eyes. He's currently 9/2 with Bet365 with the other pair at 4/1 and 5/1 respectively in a tight market.