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Racing Insights, Monday 02/09/24

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Sorry for the late posting of the column today, I've had some tech gremlins going on at home the past few days, but hopefully all is now fixed!

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 3.20 Brighton
  • 3.35 Chepstow
  • 4.10 Roscommon
  • 7.30 Windsor

Of the three UK races above, the one with the most runners is the 7.30 Windsor, an 8-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good to firm ground...

Betweenthesticks won last time out, whilst Jungle Run finished third on his last start. Tilsworth Ony Ta and Glamorous Joy both won their penultimate outings and Cabeza De Llave won six races ago, but Papa Don't Preach, Agostino and Jungle Run are currently on losing streaks of 12, 7 & 9 respectively, whilst Chiedozie is still a maiden after 13 attempts.

Tilsworth Ony Ta and Glamorous Joy both drop down a class here and as a three year old, the latter gets a 1lb weight allowance, as does the maiden Chiedozie.

Chiedozie is, of course, yet to win over 5f, but so are Agostino and Jungle Run, whilst Tilsworth Ony Ta and Cabeza de Llave are both former course and distance winners, albeit from July 2022 and June 2022 respectively.

These course and distance wins are too far back to make it onto what looks a pretty bleak 2-year window on Instant Expert...

...which probably doesn't help mus find a winner, but does highlight the scarcity of wins in general from this field and more specifically Betweenthesticks at going/trip, Papa Don't Preach (trip), Agostino (trip) and also Cabeza de Llave at the trip. let's hope the place records are more helpful...

At last, some green! But Papa Don't Preach still struggles at the trip, whilst both Agostino and Cabeza de Llave look generally weak, although the latter is now some 10lbs below his last turf win (he did win on the A/W fairly recently off 57, though). Betweenthesticks has some decent numbers too and at 13lbs below his last turf win, he could be dangerous too. Tilsworth Ony Ta is probably/possibly the pick of the pack on place stats.

On a quick straight 5f, there shouldn't be much of a draw bias here, but past races have favoured those drawn highest, especially from stall 5 and higher, when it comes to making the frame...

...but pace (our daily feature) is clearly a different matter with over half of front-runners holding on for at least a place and over 40% of those placers going on to win. The graph shows an almost linear improvement in win chances the further forward a horse races here over 5f at Windsor...

...which based on recent runs, could be good news for the likes of Agostino, Betweenthesticks, Jungle Run and Tilsworth Ony Ta...

Summary

Pace is generally key here over the shorter trips at Windsor and on that basis, I'm splitting the pack in half and focusing upon Agostino, Betweenthesticks, Jungle Run and Tilsworth Ony Ta from the pace data above. If we then look back at the draw stats, Jungle Run looks least favoured from stall one as the other trio will emerge from boxes 5, 6 and 8.

Agostino was the weakest of the four on Instant Expert and has yet to win any of twelve starts on Turf, making the frame just once, so I'm effectively picking between Tilsworth Ony Ta and Betweenthesticks with the latter in marginally better form.

Betweenthesticks is the most likely winner today in my opinion, but at odds ranging from 15/8 to 9/4 as of 8.35am on Monday, I'm not really tempted to jump in. You can, however, get 8/1 about Tilsworth from Bet365, Sky & Hills, so that might be the E/W value play today, but as ever on a Monday my advice is not to dig too deeply into your pockets.

Racing Insights, Friday 30/08/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have generated just two qualifiers for Friday...

but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.15 Thirsk
  • 4.05 Down Royal
  • 4.15 Thirsk
  • 4.45 Southwell
  • 4.50 Thirsk
  • 7.25 Wexford

...and I think I'll look at the first of our list of free races, the 3.15 Thirsk, a 9-runner, Class 3 , 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...

...where Makanah was the only one to win last time out, although top-weight Ventura Express, Tinto and Trilby were all placed third and all nine runners have won at least one of their last six outings with Ventura Express and Miss Bodacious scoring twice.

Brazen Bolt and Trilby both drop down from Class 2, but Rousing Encore, Miss Bodacious and Beattie Is Back are all up one class for a race that sees both Rousing Encore and Reveiller make debuts for their new handlers, whilst Miss Bodacious will wear a visor for the first time. She, along with Reveiller, will receive a useful 3lbs weight for age allowance here too.

Most of the field have raced at least once in the last five weeks and Reveiller latest run was eight weeks ago, but Beattie Is Back might well need the run, having been in the shed since mid-May 2023 and he's also one of just three runners here (Ventura Express and Reveiller) yet to win over today's trip. Of the six who have won over 6f previously, class-dropper Brazen Bolt and Tinto are course and distance winners, whilst Makanah has also won at this venue, albeit over 5f way back in mid-May 2019, which of course, won't show up on the two-year form record on Instant Expert, which suggests that Tinto might struggle at this level, having lost 12 of 14 starts at Class 3...

...whereas Makanah has won half of his four efforts. Tinto's record over this trip is even worse than his Class 3 numbers, whilst Rousing Encore makes no appeal at all. Perhaps they've been unlucky and have a string of placed finishes behind them? Let's check...

Unsurprisingly, that's not the case, but Brazen Bolt is now in my mind as a possible placer. In addition to those numbers above, he has been in the frame four times from five on good ground and he's only a pound higher than his last win and he's well drawn here in stall 4. You don't usually get much of a draw bias over a straight 6f on decent ground, but those drawn in the lowest six stalls do seem to have performed a little better than those in 7 or higher...

...but if that's a bit of a surprise, then the fact that front-runners fare best here won't be too much of a shock...

...giving us this pace/draw heat map...

...suggesting that the best positions would be a low-drawn leader or mid-drawn runners in prominent/mid-division places. And if we look at the field's most recent races...

...there's no real proven front runner, but Brazen Bolt and Rousing Encore seem best suited by the pace/draw situation

Summary

Makanah, Ventura Express, Tinto and Trilby performed the best last time out. Brazen Bolt and Trilby both drop down from Class 2 and Makanah, Ventura Express, Tinto and Brazen Bolt were the picks from Instant Expert, whilst Brazen Bolt and Rousing Encore seem best suited by pace/draw.

Of those mentioned above, I think I like Trilby best based on his third placed run in a higher grade from out of the handicap last time out and he'd be my pick ahead of Makanah. It's then easy to make a case for any of the other three, but I think I'd side with Brazen Bolt. he ticks more boxes for me and is likely to offer the best value, speaking of which : here's the market as of 3.50pm Thursday...

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 29/08/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.55 Ffos Las
  • 4.00 Navan
  • 5.05 Navan
  • 5.20 Newbury
  • 7.12 Southwell

...and as Thursday night is Racing League Night, we're off to Nottinghamshire for the 7.12 Southwell for race 39, an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over 8 yards shy of 2m½f on standard tapeta...

...where bottom weight (thanks to his 3yo 12lb weight allowance) Warmonger is the form horse, having won each of his last three starts. Cardano also won last time out, whilst Solent Gateway and Manxman had top three finishes. Those without a win in seven starts, however include Solent Gateway and Soowaih after eleven and ten consecutive defeats respectively, whilst Boldly is a nine-race maiden.

Only Wahraan (4th of 8), Manxman (3rd of 11) and Cinnodin (5th of 11) raced at this Class 3 level last time out as Solent Gateway, Cardano, Robusto, Boldly, Soowaih and Le Rouge Chinois all step up a class. Form horse Warmonger is up two levels, but Shagpyle does drop in class here.

The entire field have raced at least once in the last eight weeks and Cinnodin is the only previous course winner of the five to have visited this venue, having landed a Class 6, 1m6f handicap here back in April 2023. He and five others have also won over a similar trip to this one, but Wahraan, Cardano, Boldly, Soowaih and Le Rouge Chinois are yet to score at either track or trip, whilst Instant Expert says none of the field have a Class 3 win to their name in the last two years...

Robusto and Warmonger have a trio of wins at going/trip respectively and the only real alarm bells so far surround Solent Gateway's ability to win over 2m, having lost 11 of 12 attempts. he has made the frame in 4 of those defeats, but I won't be backing him today, especially after seeing the rest of his place form...

It's probably the end of the road for me with Wahraan too at this point as others seem better poised.

It's a two-mile race on standard going, so I wouldn't have expected any huge draw bias and wasn't surprised/ disappointed with the data, even if those drawn centrally have had slightly better results...

...and it's a bit of a mixed bag with pace too, as leaders and mid-division runners haven't done as well as the stalking prominent types or those held up for a late run...

...giving us quite a few draw/pace combos that have been reasonably successful...

...whilst in terms of this field's last few runs and their own pace/draw make-up...

...Solent Gateway, Robusto, Cardano, Soowaih and Warmonger are fully in the 'preferred zone' with Manxman just shy thanks to a hold up run two starts ago and Le Rouge Chinois on the cusp due to draw vagaries.

Summary

Solent Gateway, Robusto, Cardano, Soowaih, Warmonger, Manxman and Le Rouge Chinois would be the ones to consider from the pace/draw angle, but I ruled Solent Gateway out earlier and Soowaih has lost eleven on the bounce.

Of the remaining five runners, Cardano, Soowaih and Le Rouge Chinois have yert to win at either track or trip, leaving me with the form pair Manxman and Warmonger. Warmonger will find this tougher, up two classes and carrying a 10lb penalty for his last win. he's now rated 20lbs higher than two months ago and whilst he'll be popular here, I think he might be susceptible as a front-runner to getting reeled in by Manxman, who'll probably offer more value too.

A quick look at the market as of 4.25pm Wednesday backed up my theory...

...but I'd be happy to take Manxman and Warmonger as my 1-2. Some bookies wil pay four places here and if you were looking for some E/W action, then Cardano might fit the bill at 10/1 or bigger.

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 28/08/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one.

It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

...and have highlighted just one runner of possible interest...

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.15 Catterick
  • 4.05 Musselburgh
  • 5.18 Bellewstown
  • 7.30 Kempton

...and I think I'll have a look at Baraq and the 8.00 Kempton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m3f on standard to slow polytrack...

None of these managed to win their last race, but Baraq did make the frame, when 3rd of 14 over a mile at Southwell at the start of the month. He is however, a 4-race maiden and both South Pole and Liam Swagger have yet to get off the mark too, after three and six attempts respectively. The whole 8-runner field has won just 7 of 46 so far, but have made the frame twenty times (43.5%)

Liam Swagger has only raced in a handicap once before and it's the first crack for South Pole, Niigata and featured runner Baraq. South Pole and Niigata both run for the first time since being gelded and both will sport new equipment; South Pole will be tongue-tied and Niigata will be blinkered.

Niigata also steps up a class here, as does Baraq, but New Chelsea and True Wisdom drop down a level, whilst Into battle drops two classes.

The two who have recently been gelded haven't raced for nine and eleven weeks, but the other half dozen have all had an outing in the last four weeks and both Magico and Into Battle have already won here at Kempton.

Those wins will show below on Instant Expert, but with a field only having seven total wins, we'd better also look at the place stats...

Magico and Into Battle seems the best positioned based on the win stats, albeit off a very small sample size of races. New Chelsea is the most experienced at this level and has made the frame in half of his six defeats, but the concern already is that he always seems to find at least or two runners too good for him and I suppose you can say the same about Liam Swagger at the trip.

Our Draw Analyser says there's little to be gained from being drawn in a particular section of the stalls, although runners in stalls 1 and 2 have relatively poor records, which might not be good news for Into Battle and New Chelsea, but I wouldn't rule any horse out based purely on the draw stats over 1m3f here at Kempton...

Pace, however, is a different story, as hold-up horses have found it really difficult to win from behind here...

Thankfully, we don't seem to have any hold-up types in this race, although Magico was slow away three starts ago...

Summary

So we've an inexperienced field and no real pace or draw bias to help us whittle down the contenders, but New Chelsea has made the frame five times from nine and Baraq has done so three times from four. Into Battle and Magico were the initial standouts from Instant Expert and I think I'd want these four rather than the other four runners in the race.

Into Battle drops two classes here and that might just tip the balance slightly his way, but otherwise I don't think there's that much between the four of them. Perhaps the market as of 5.40pm Tuesday will help...

...or maybe not! Sod's Law seems to have prevailed here; there's no E/W route out for me to hedge my bets and I'd probably agree with the bookies that Baraq might be marginally better than New Chelsea and Magico, but I wouldn't invest too much of your time nor money on this one!

Racing Insights, Tuesday 27/08/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the first three would certainly be of interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 1.40 Musselburgh
  • 2.55 Ripon
  • 3.40 Musselburgh
  • 6.15 Bellewstown

...but to be honest, the days racing is really pooor and I think I'm actually going to swerve the whole lot and just look at the day's highest-rated race.

OK, so that's going to be the 6.25 Stratford, a 6-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over almost 2m3½f on good/good to firm ground. It's not an ideal race to cover, but it's the best on the day and here's the card...

AL ZARAQAAN won four chases on the bounce last summer and won again at Cartmel back in May. Well beaten in two runs since finishing 12th of 13 and 13th of 16, but does drop in class/trip today.

EL BORRACHO last won just over a year ago at Bangor and hasn't tackled a fence since finishing last of 11 back at the same track in May. Since then he has been well beaten in a 2m Flat race and a 2m4f hurdle, but was 3rd of 9 over 1m6f at Haydock earlier this month.

LA DOMANIALE was a course and distance winner here just over two years ago and has only raced seven times since. She won at Aintree in May 2023 and was 3rd of 7 here over C&D a year ago before ending the season as a runner-up at Worcester. her seasonal return saw her just 15th of 16 at Market Rasen, but she's down in class/trip here.

ONEMOREFORTHEROAD won a 2m2f chase at Kempton back in April for a second success inside four outings and was a Kempton runner-up next time out, but has been 6th of 8 and 9th of 13 in two runs since, so much will depend which version of this useful chaser turns up.

ROTTEN ROW had a run of eight defeats between chase wins at Tramore in August 2023 and here at Stratford over 2m4½f in early June on his penultimate outing. Subsequently beaten by nine lengths as fourth home of eleven at Cartmel, a current mark of 118 might be a tad too high for him as he steps up two classes.

GREY SKIES won back to back chases at Sedgefield and Perth in March/April 2023, but has failed to win any of eleven starts since, despite four runner-up finishes and is up in class after a 54 length defeat at Bangor last time out. He has, however, had wind surgery since that run and also wears a tongue-tie for the first time today.

The two-year Instant Expert overview doesn't really push me in any direction, but it does raise queries about bottom weight Grey Skies...

...pretty self-explanatory stuff, of course. Grey Skies doesn't seem suited by the going, El Borracho has the worst Class 2 record, Rotten Row would probably prefer a different trip and he's 7lbs higher than his last win. He has made the frame on one of those three distance defeats and Grey Skies has made the frame twice on this going, but El Borracho is still struggling for class, according to the place stats...

Small field chases over this kind of trip here at Stratford have favoured horses willing to get n with things and set the tempo, which might well be El Borracho's saving grace if recent efforts are anything to go by...

...but he's likely to have company from Onemorefortheroad here.

Summary

Not much to discuss here to be honest, but my thoughts are that Rotten Row is probably the least poor of a bad bunch running in what looks a really poor race for a Class 2 handicap. My issue with Rotten Row, though, is that he's currently (4.45pm Monday) only a 2/1 shot and there's no value there for me. The other five were bracketed in the 9/2 to 13/2 range, so no scope for an E/W bet just yet and my advice here would be to not have a bet.

If I was to pick one, it'd be a tentative nudge towards Grey Skies after a wind op and a drop in trip or maybe a very small E/W punt on current 13/2 outsider El Borracho (based on the pace angle) if he was to drift a little further.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 26/08/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.47 Southwell
  • 3.05 Downpatrick
  • 3.35 Chepstow
  • 3.40 Downpatrick
  • 3.52 Epsom
  • 6.05 Southwell

I was almost tempted by the Amateur Derby, but the best (on paper, anyway) of these looks like being the 3.35 Chepstow, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on good to soft ground...

...where every single runner is up in class and both Kalama Sunshine and Fact or Fable come here on the back of a win with the former having five wins and two runner-up finishes from her last seven starts including finishes of 1121 over course and distance.

Stockpyle, Valkyrian, Believe You Me, Racing Demon and Fact Or Fable have all won at least two of their last five runs, but Magical Merlin and Macs Dilemma are winless in eight and eleven respectively.

Lady Flora is the sole 3yo in the race and receives a 6lbs allowance for that and like half of the field will be ridden by a claimer. Trainer John O'Shea sends three runners here and aside from Racing Demon who returns from a 53-day break, the field have all had a race this month.

Magical Merlin and Bantry have yet to win at track or trip and of the ten previous course winners here at Catterick, only Believe You Me, Macs Dilemma and Soi Dao are without a course and distance win, although the latter has won over this trip elsewhere, but she's only one from eight over the last couple of years as referenced by Instant Expert...

...where the top half of the card looks stronger than the bottom and Macs Dilemma, Letter of The Law and Bantry all look weak with the latter also having a terrible place record...

...and I think I want to be focusing upon these runners today...

Our Draw Analyser says that off an albeit small sample of races that those drawn more centrally have performed best, but it is a small sample so we must tread carefully...

...whilst the Pace Analysis of those races says that horses who race further forward have the best chances of making the frame and going on to win...

...with the pace/draw heat map looking like this...

...and this field's most recent outings suggest we could have a bit of a burn up...

Of the seven runners I highlighted from Instant Expert, I'm going to cross Racing Demon off after seeing that he's likely to be held up. A quick glance back at the pace/draw heat map says that ideally we'd have a mid-drawn front runner (Valkyrian), a mid-drawn prominent runner (Lady Flora) and a high-drawn leader (Stockpyle) and seeing as we have one of each, we'll take them to the final analysis.

Summary

Instant Expert, Draw, Pace and the Pace/Draw combinations have brought us to a three-runner shortlist of Valkyrian, Lady Flora and Stockpyle, who I think all have a great chance of at least making the frame. I'd also like to throw Kalama Sunrise's name into the equation/hat, because even though she doesn't appear to fit well here in stall 2, she'll certainly be up with the pace, she did score well on Instant Expert, she's in great form and is the track/trip specialist.

Kalama Sunrise is, therefore my marginal pick just ahead of the excellent Lady Flora. These two should be too good for the others, but Stockpyle & Valkyrian might have a good battle for minor honours. No odds were available at 3.55pm Sunday, but with the bookies paying four places here, if we can get 8/1 or bigger about any of these four, a nice E/W bet could be the ticket.

Racing Insights, Saturday 24/08/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

In addition to those as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 3.00 York
  • 3.05 Killarney
  • 3.15 Goodwood
  • 3.20 Newmarket
  • 5.25 Killarney
  • 6.00 Redcar

from which I'm taking a look at the Group 2 City of York Stakes from the free list aka the 3.00 York, an 8-runner affair for horses aged 3 or over and the trip is a left-handed 7f on good ground...

My initial thoughts were that this race might well boil down to a battle between Kinross (who won this race in 2022 and 2023) and Lake Forest (who gets a 5lb allowance as the sole 3yo in the race) for the right to finish second behind Audience, who I suspect will go off as a pretty short favourite, but let's have a proper look.

ART POWER has been useful in the past and ended last season with a Gr1 win on Champions Day at Ascot. Has yet to win in five attempts this season, but was a 4-lengths second to Audience in the Gr2 Lennox Stakes at Goodwood 25 days ago, although he was afforded a soft lead that day.

AUDIENCE ran alone and made all to win the Gr1 Lockinge at Newbury on his seasonal reappearance in May, but was only fifth in the Queen Anne a month later. He soon put that run behind him to land the afore-mentioned Lennox at Goodwood 25 days ago and looks the one to beat here.

FIVETHOUSANDTOONE has only won one of eighteen starts on the Flat and having finished 17th of 18 and 17th of 25 in his last two starts (both Class 2 handicaps), he'd not be high on many shortlists here.

KINROSS was a Gr1 winner on Champions Day to end the 2022 season after winning this race and another Gr2 contest at Doncaster. He also won the Lennox and this race last year and was third behind Audience and Art Power in this year's Lennox after blowing the start. He'll need to get away sharper if he want a third win in this race.

SHOULDVEBEENARING has lost ten on the bounce in the UK since landing a listed race at Newmarket in May 2023 and whilst he has four top three finishes at Class 1 during that run of defeats, you'd have to think there are at least one or two to beat him again today.

VAFORTINO won a Listed race at Redcar back in October and was sixth in this year's Wokingham followed by a near-three length defeat in a Chester Listed contest last time out. A steady performer, but steady cuts little mustard at Group 2!

BREEGE gets a 3lb weight allowance as the only female in the race and she started this season the same way she finished the last one, making the frame but losing by a head in a Listed race (Ascot & Goodwood) but she did last the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth at Epsom in June. Only 7th of 9 last time out and this is a tougher race, so she's likely to be down the pecking order once more.

LAKE FOREST gets that useful 5lb 3yo allowance here and comes here in good nick. He won the Gimcrack here over 6f last August and has been a runner-up at both Gr1 and Gr3 in his two races this term. Tends to run on late, so the step up to 7f might suit and after just seven races, he's not fully exposed.

INSTANT EXPERT almost inevitably points us back towards Audience and Kinross...

...and highlights Vafortino's lack of success at this trip. Breege is also winless in five attempts at 7f and has a really poor win return in Class 1 contests, losing 10 of 11, although she has made the frame in half of those ten defeats...

...and she is relatively well drawn if past races here are anything to go by...

That said, the draw influence isn't huge as the bend here on the 7f track is quite gentle and it's often race positioning aka pace that settles the contests here...

...with front-runners having most joy, which could be good news for the likes of Art Power, Audience and Breege based on their most recent efforts...

Summary

I still think Audience is the best in the race and will win here, but we're not getting rich at odds ranging from 5/4 to 6/4. Kinross and Lake Forest are still what I consider to be next bests, but at 11/4 to 4/1 probably offer little value/point to a bet, so it might well be the likes of Art Power as an E/W option at 12's today. He split Audience and Kinross last time out, so could he do it again?

Sat TV Trends: 24th Aug 2024 – Goodwood and York

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More LIVE horse racing action this weekend (Sat 24th August) as the ITV cameras head to York for the final day of their Ebor Festival, plus are also at Goodwood to take in two contests - that include the Prestige Stakes.

York Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – Sky Bet Strensall Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m208y ITV

21/21 – Had won over at least a mile before
21/21 – Had won at least twice in the their career
20/21 – Had between 2 and 4 runs already that season
17/21 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
17/21 – Had won over a mile before
8/21 – Won by Godolphin
8/21 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/21 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
4/21 – Had won at York before
3/21 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (2 of last 6)
3/21 – Trained by David O’Meara (3 of last 10)
2/21 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
Spirit Dancer (6/1) won the race last year

Note: The 2009 running was a dead-heat

2.25 – Sky Bet Melrose Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m6f ITV

19/21 – Never raced at York before
17/21 – Had 4 or more runs that season
17/21 – Had a top 5 finish last time out
16/21 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
16/21 – Had won over 1m4f or further
15/21 – Won carrying 9-0 or less
12/21 - Drawn in stall 8 or lower
6/21 – Winning favourites (1 co, 1 joint)
3/21 – Trained by William Haggas
2/21 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/21 – Ridden by William Buick
2/21 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (2 of last 6)
2/21 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of last 4)
Middle Earth (9/2 jfav) won the race in 2023

3.00 – Sky Bet City Of York Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 7f ITV

19/21 – Failed to win last time out
18/21 – Aged 5 or younger
18/21 – Priced 7/1 or shorter
16/21 – Drawn in stalls 4 to 8 (inc)
16/21 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
14/21 – Never run at York before
13/21 – Winning distance 1 length or less
12/21 – Had 4 or more runs that season
9/21 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/21 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute
3/21 – Won by trainer Andrew Balding
3/21 – Placed horses from stall 1
Kinross (5/1) won the race in 2022

3.35 – Sky Bet Ebor (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m6f ITV

21/22 – Aged 6 or younger
18/22 – Carried 9-5 or less
18/22 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
18/22 – Won from a double-figure stall
16/22 – Winning Distance - 1 length or less
15/22 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
14/22 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
13/22 – Unplaced favourites
12/22 – Carried 9-1 or less
11/22 – Had run at York before
7/22 – Won last time out
7/22 – Irish-trained winners (7 of the last 15)
6/22 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/22 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
4/22 – Ran at Galway last time out
2/22 – Trained by Johnny Murtagh (2 of last 10)
2/22 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/22 – Placed horses from stall 1 (third 2011, third 2013)
2/22 – Winning favourites
2/22 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 6)
2/22- Trained by Willie Mullins (2 of the last 15)
Just two winning favourites since 1999
Since 1980 only one winner aged 7 or older
7 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1980, 1991 & 1996

4:10 Constantine Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) 6f ITV

Just 3  past runnings
Albasheer won the race in 2023
Summerghand won the race in 2023 and 2022
Jockey Daniel Tudhope rode the winner in 2022 and 2023
All three winners priced 15/2 or shorter
All three winners carried 9-0 or more in weight
2 of the  winners came from stalls 13+
Note: The 2023 running was a dead-heat

Goodwood Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2:05 – William Hill Prestige Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 (2yo) 7f ITV

14/14 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
14/14 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
14/14 – Won 1 or 2 times before
13/14 – Foaled in Jan, Feb or March
13/14 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
12/14 – Yet to win a Group or Listed race
11/14 – Placed favourites
10/14 – Ran at Newmarket, Goodwood or Ascot last time out
10/14 – Had won over 7f before
9/14 – Won last time out
8/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/14 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/14 – Ridden by Harry Bentley
The last four winners came from stalls 2 (2) or 5 (2)

2:40– William Hill Celebration Mile Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m ITV

14/14 – Drawn in stalls 7 or lower
13/14 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
13/14 – Had won over 1m before
12/14 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
11/14 – Won between 3- 6 times before
10/14 – Had won a Group race before
8/14 – Drawn in stalls 1, 2 or 3
8/14 – Had run at the track before
5/14– Won by a 3 year-old
5/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
4/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Ran at Salisbury last time out
3/14 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy (3 of the last 8)
2/14 – Trained by David Simcock

 

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2025 Nunthorpe Stakes Trends

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Staged at the York Ebor Meeting at York racecourse in August, the Group One Nunthorpe Stakes, which is run over 5f, always attracts the best speedsters from around the world – but don’t be put off if you fancy something at a bigger price as we’ve seen 20/1, 40/1 and even a 100/1 winner in this race in recent times.

Did you know 20 of the last 23 winners came from stalls 11 or lower?

Here at GEEGEEZ, we look back at the recent winners and gives you some key trends to take into the 2025 race.

Recent Nunthorpe Stakes Winners

  • 2024 - Bradsell (3/1)
  • 2023 - Live In The Dream (28/1)
  • 2022 - Highfield Princess (5/1)
  • 2021 – Winter Power (9/1)
  • 2020 – Battaash (1/2 fav)
  • 2019 – Battaash (7/4)
  • 2018 – Alpha Delphini (40/1)
  • 2017 – Marsha (8/1)
  • 2016 – Mecca's Angel (9/2)
  • 2015 – Mecca's Angel (15/2)
  • 2014 – Sole Power (11/4 fav)
  • 2013 – Jwala (40/1)

Nunthorpe Stakes Betting Trends

  • 21/23 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
  • 21/23 – Had won over 5f before
  • 20/23 – Came from stall 11 or lower
  • 19/23 – Had an official rating of 108 or more
  • 19/23 – Had run at the course before
  • 17/23 – Favourites to finish in the top 4
  • 16/23 – Were previous Group race winners
  • 9/23 – Ran at Goodwood last time out (inc 8 of last 15)
  • 5/23 – Winning favourites
  • 3/23 - Won by the Hills yard (Charles/Barry)
  • 3/23 – Placed horses from stall 1 (3rd in 2003 & 2012)
  • 2/23 – Ran at Sandown last time out
  • 2/23 – Trained by Michael Dods
  • 10 of the last 16 winner drawn 7 or higher
  • 8 of the last 14 winners were fillies/mares
  • 12 of the last 13 winners were aged between 4-7 years-old
  • Bradsell (3/1) won the race in 2023
  • Live In The Dream (28/1) won the race in 2023

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Racing Insights, Friday 23/08/24

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced no qualifiers...

Thankfully, our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.10 Newmarket
  • 2.25 York
  • 3.45 Ffos Las
  • 4.30 Newmarket
  • 5.50 Goodwood
  • 7.12 Killarney

...the highest rated of which is the 2.25 York, a 9-runner, Group 2 contest for horses aged 3 or over. The going is expected to be good firm and the trip is a left-handed 2m 78yds after a 22 yard rail adjustment...

Al Nayyir hasn't raced in the UK for almost four years since his debut at Kempton, but has won two of his last eight in France. Alsakib won last time out and has won three of his last seven. Gregory made the frame last time out for a fifth defeat on the bounce since completing a hat-trick in the Queen's Vase at Ascot in June '23. Point Lonsdale was third in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud last time out and won the Ormonde Stakes at Chester in May on his last UK outing.

Quickthorn won the Gr1 Goodwood Cup last August, but has failed to impress in his three runs since finishing 6th of 7 in this race last year, then last of 5 and 4th of 8 in two lower class races. Tashkan won a Class 2 handicap at Chester last September and came within a length of landing the Cesarewitch a fortnight later, but has been disappointing this term, going down by 32L and 10l in his two starts.

Vauban won a 16-runner Class 2 handicap at Ascot in June '23 and then a Group 3 contest at Naas seven weeks later and has made the frame in a couple of group 2 races this season already. Night Sparkle won a trio of handicaps back to back last summer and has been a runner-up in three of his four starts this year. Align The Stars comes here off the back of three handicap successes, but will step up in both class and trip today.

Al Nayyir has been gelded since his last run and also makes a yard debut for Tom Clover, meaning this will be his fourth yard debut in ten races! The 5yo mare Night Sparkle receives a 3lbs weight allowance here and Align The Stars receives a more than useful 12lbs as the race's only 3 yr old.

Alsakib was a Group 3 winner here at York on his last outing and of his rivals, only Quickthorn has won over this trip, scoring over course and distance under today's jockey Tom Marquand in this very race in 2022, as seen on Instant Expert...

...where Alsakib is probably the standout overall, but Point Lonsdale does have those three Class 1 wins to his name. Tashkan, Vauban, and Night Sparkle have struggled to win top-flight races, whilst the first two of that trio look the weakest on that graphic, but Vauban does have this knack of making the frame, which means I'm not ruling him out of my thoughts just yet...

Over a race of this distance, I wouldn't expect the draw to be a massively deciding factor, but runners in stall 1 have a ridiculously high win ration in comparison to the rest of the stalls...

...landing almost a quarter of those races above. The pace stats for those races above aren't entirely conclusive either, but horses running in mid-division have fared the best, whilst those setting the pace have had a target on their backs...

If we look at how this field have approached their most recent outings, it's difficult to assume who might be setting the tempo today, as all bar Vauban and Alsakib have an average pace score of 3.00 (prominent) or higher!

Summary

I think that seven of the nine might get involved in a bit of a bunfight for the lead at some point and this might lead to some wilting under the pressure, opening the door for a late run from Vauban and/or Alsakib, both of whom are more than capable of making the frame.

As for those seeking to set the pace, Night Sparkle and Align the Stars both scored well on Instant Expert, but in races like this, the cream usually rises to the top and I think that Point Lonsdale is the best horse in the race, even if the stats above don't back me up and for me, he's definitely in my top three today.

I'd then take two of Vauban, Alsakib, Night Sparkle and Align The Stars and it's the latter I'm ruling out first. Yes, he's in great form, but steps up in trip and this is a far tougher proposition than a Class 2 handicap. He's only 3 yrs old and bigger/better days are on his horizon, but probably not today.

Night Sparkle looks like the perennial bridesmaid and might struggle back amongst male company, so I'm dropping her here too, leaving me with Point Lonsdale as my best in race and Vauban/Alsakib as my possible placers, so let's check the market at 4.50pm Thursday...

Point Lonsdale isn't a surprising favourite here and he's pretty much about the price I expected (I'd jotted 2/1 to 5/2 on my pad). Vauban looks terribly short for a horse that rarely wins under these conditions, but Alsakib is very interesting from an E/W perspective at 10/1.

Racing Insights, Thursday 22/08/24

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 2.00 Lingfield
  • 2.10 Newton Abbot
  • 2.25 York
  • 6.15 Newcastle
  • 7.15 Newcastle
  • 7.55 Leopardstown

...from which, we'll head (as we tend to on a Thursday) for the Racing League and Race 32, the 7.15 Newcastle, a 13-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed trip just shy of 1m4½f on standard to slow tapeta...

Lexington Knight won last time out and has won two of his last five, Night breeze has won each of his last three and Tafsir won last time out too for a third win in six outings and an eighth successive top-3 finish.

Corsican Caper has also won three of his last six and most of the field have at least one win in their recent form line, but Who's Glen is a three-race maiden whilst John Chard VC is winless in seven races/two years and now makes an A/W debut. Who's Glen has, however, made the frame in each of his three outings to date.

Plenty of these are moving class today, but only Kamboo drops down a level for his second run in a handicap. Matchless, Lexington Knight, Dark Jedi, John Chard VC and Percy Jones all step up one class; Who's Glen makes a handicap debut and Corsican Caper makes a yard debut as both step up two classes with in-form Tafsir stepping up three levels here, which could be tough.

Top weight True Courage did run at this grade last time out, but after three indifferent efforts is now fitted with blinkers for the first time. Kamboo is the highest-rated runner in the race off a mark of 87 (2lbd higher than True Courage), but as one of two 3yr olds in the race (along with handicap debutant Who's Glen) in the race, benefits from a very handy 9lbs weight allowance today.

Most of this field have had at least one outing in the last four weeks, but Percy Jones, Kamboo and Corsican Caper return from short breaks of 54, 63 and 77 days respectively, whilst Matchless might well need a run after a 21-week layoff since a 51 length defeat over hurdles at Fontwell. In fact, his last six outings have all been over hurdles and hasn't raced on level ground since finishing fourth of seven, beaten by sixteen lengths over 1m4f at Catterick ten months ago.

Matchless is one for four runners here (Kamboo, John Chard VC and Who's Glen being the others) yet to win over a similar trip to this one. Four other runners have also won here at Newcastle in the past with True Courage, La Pulga and Lexington Knight all former course and distance winners, whilst Furzig won here over 1m2f way back in July 2019, but that would even register on the five-year form on Instant Expert, never mind this two-year overview...

...where True Courage is probably the main standout runner. Corsican Caper, Furzig, Night Breeze and Lexington Knight have multiple wins at this trip, but Dark Jedi and La Pulga have really struggled to win, whilst Percy Jones hasn't fared that much better. Tafsir and Furzig are a combined 0 from 14 here at Newcastle over the last two years, whilst Matchless, Furzig and La Pulga are a combined 1 from 27 at Class 3! It's probably safe to assume that I'll not be backing Tafsir, Matchless, Dark Jedi, Furzig, La Pulza or Percy Jones to win here, but half of that group remain in contention for the places so far, now that I've seen this...

They're still not high up in my thoughts, of course, but they are still part of this group I'm now focusing on...

..as we now check whether any might be aided or hindered by the draw. Before I look at the draw stats, I'd say that I'd be surprised in stall position made or broke a horse's chances of winning when there's over a mile and a half to run after the gates open, but I'd better check the stats anyway, because we know that data doesn't lie!

And that data would actually suggest that those drawn highest have fared best of all. from a win perspective, stalls 4, 5, 6 and 10+ have had the best win percentages, but we're not talking huge margins here...

...although it is technically good news for Matchless, True Courage, Night Breeze, Lexington Knight and La Pulga. Sadly, if we thought that the draw data was particularly helpful, the pace stats are even less useful today, I'm afraid, with no real clear pattern...

..and this is reflected in the pace/draw heat map...

So, when this happens, I tend to go back to the racecard and Instant Expert to help guide me.

Summary

It's not an exact science, but if I refer to Instant Expert and the place data and focus upon those with three blocks of green, I'm suddenly only looking at four runners...

...and all four fit the slight draw bias we mentioned earlier.

Matchless might well need a run after a 21-week break from racing and tackling a first non-NH race in ten months might test his fitness. It's also almost sixteen months since he last won on the level and he has yet to make the frame in seven A/W starts, so that's an easy decision to drop him from my list of possibles.

This leaves me with a trio in racecard order of True Courage, Lexington Knight and Night Breeze and I think true Courage is definitely the weaker of the three. I don't however see much between Lexington Knight and Night Breeze, but if pushed to stick my neck out, I'd probably go with Night Breeze who rarely runs a bad race.

A market check at 5.15pm Wednesday showed this...

...and with bookies paying four places, Lexington Knight and True Courage both fall into what I'd class as being "E/W backable"

Racing Insights, Wednesday 21/08/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.00 York
  • 6.10 Sligo
  • 7.00 Worcester
  • 7.25 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

...from which I'm going to take a look at James Tate's Endless Power and the 6.50 Kempton, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed mile on standard to slow polytrack...

Eleftheria is our only LTO winner and she has two wins and a place from her last four outings. Amphius and Jayyash have both made the first three home in each of their last two runs, although the former is still a maiden after three attempts. Bluelight Bay and Francesi are the only ones without a win in at least seven races (nine and twenty-three to be precise!)

Featured runner and top-weight Endless Power takes a drop in class today, as do Rocking Tree and Quatre Bras, but handicap debutant Amphius and Tiger Beetle are both up a level, whilst Bravo Zulu and Jayyash both run for the first time after recent gelding operations.

I say recent ops, because they both last ran less than eight weeks ago, but only Rocking Tree and Eleftheria have been rested for longer at 61 and 77 days with the others all having had at least one outing in the last 7 (Francesi) to 37 (Amphius) days.

More than half of the field (Amphius, Rocking Tree, Eleftheria, Bravo Zulu, Quatre Bras and Jayyash) are still just three years old and they'll get a useful 6lbs weight allowance today.

Amphius is still a maiden, so obviously has no course or distance wins and the other s yet to win at this trip are Rocking Tree, Bravo Zulu, Quatre Bras and Tiger Beetle, but Bravo Zulu, Quatre Bras have at least already won here at Kempton over 7f, whilst both Eleftheria and Jayyash are former course and distance winners (LTO for the former and four starts ago for the latter) and this info is contained within Instant Expert below...

...which suggests that Francesi won't like the underfoot conditions and that he and Tiger Beetle might well be out of their depths at Class 4. Francesi also has a poor win record over a mile, as does Bluelight Bay and these win stats point to the winner coming from stalls 2, 4, 7, 8, 9 or 11, but I just want to check the place stats to see if any of those with poor win records have just been unlucky...

...but this graphic says that's not really the case although Francesi has made the frame quite a few times at Class 4 and/or over a mile. If I was being harsh, I'd probably that only five of them standout from those place stats...

Previous similar races here at Kempton have tended to favour those drawn in the lower half (stalls 1-6) of the field...

...which is good news for Eleftheria and Quatre Bras from the Instant Expert quintet above, but will also offer encouragement for Rocking Tree, Francesi, Amphius and Bluelight Bay. That said, I think that race positioning/tactics aka pace might well be a major factor here, for when we look back at those races above, there's a definitive pattern that has formed...

...and it's front runners or prominent racers that we're really looking for, which based on the field's most recent efforts...

...puts Rocking Tree, Bravo Zulu and Quatre Bras in the spotlight. Endless Power shouldn't be too far off the pace either and Eleftheria is interesting. She had two prominent run followed by two hold-up efforts, but did win here over course and distance last time out, despite being held up from a high draw!

Summary

If we consider recent form, weight allowances, course/distance records, Instant Expert and pace/draw, then I think I like Eleftheria and Jayyash slightly more than the rest in what looks like being a tight/tricky contest to call. I doubt either will trade at 8/1 or higher (no odds showing at 4.30pm Tuesday), so I can't go E/W on them and I'd take the filly Eleftheria as my marginal pick, whilst A/W debutant Azahara Palace might be the E/W punt for small change if prices dictate, of course.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 20/08/24

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...plus we also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 3.10 Kempton
  • 5.40 Nottingham
  • 5.50 Roscommon
  • 6.10 Nottingham

And I think we'll take a look at Zero Carbon and the 4.45 Kempton, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 7f on standard to slow polytrack...

Only Brasil Power managed to win last time out and that was his second win in his last five starts, whilst all bar Revolutionise and Follow Your Heart have won at least one of their last seven.

This pair have lost ten and nine on the bounce respectively, although the former was the only other runner in this field to make the frame last time out. This pair might struggle again here as they're both up in class, as is bottom weight Big R, but top weight Hieronymous is down a grade here, whilst Wallop wears a visor for the first time today.

Aljati hasn't raced for 81 days but all his rivals have had at least one run in the past 46 days with four of them being seen in the last week!

Pjanoo is the only runner without a previous course or distance win. Wallop and Big R have already won here over 6f, whilst Aljari and Society Lion have won over this trip elsewhere. Five of the field (Hieronymus, Zero Carbon, Brasil Power, Revolutionise & Follow Your Heart) are course and distance winners and Instant Expert looks like this...

...with Zero Carbon leading the way, as you'd expect. Revolutionise has struggled to win over this trip, Follow Your Heart looks weak on going/track, whilst Society Lion has yet to win at Class 4 on the A/W and having only made the frame once in those six defeats...

...is likely to struggle again, although Revolutionise's numbers now appear much better. If we then look at past similar races, our draw analyser says that whilst there's not a huge draw bias at play here, those drawn highest have had less success than the others...

...which isn't great news for Hieronymus, Brasil Power, Zero Carbon or Big R, but I'm not sure the draw alone would mean a horse couldn't win here if the correct tactics were employed and the best tactics here would be to hit the front as soon as you could and then stay there. Easier said than done of course, but here's how those 300+ races have panned out...

...which looks to be more conclusive than the draw stats and would indicate that Zero Carbon might well be in the box seat, if his last three runs are anything to go by...

Summary

I initially thought that LTO C&D winner Brasil Power would be the one to beat here, but he doesn't seem well suited by either pace nor draw. he's also up 5lbs here and that might well make him susceptible to Zero Carbon. He's the qualifier from the shortlist and caught the eye on Instant Expert. He's got the ideal pace profile to win this to add to his three previous course and distance wins.

Brasil Power looked a bit shot at 9/4 as of 5pm Monday, meaning that Zero Carbon's 7/1 ticket was very appealing and borderline for an E/W option.

Racing Insights, Saturday 17/08/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following set of runners...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.45 Curragh
  • 2.45 Ripon
  • 3.20 Ripon
  • 5.40 Bath
  • 5.45 Curragh
  • 6.20 Market Rasen

Both the TJC report and the free list have a Class 2 handicap, but 18-runner sprints aren't my bag and I've not covered an NH race for some while, so let's head to Scotland for the 6.35 Perth, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over what will be near enough 2m½f after a 57 yard rail adjustment. They'll go right-handed and tackle eight flights of hurdles in a bid to land the £13k first prize...

Enthused, Castel Gandolfo and Kinbara Firstdraft all won their last hurdle races, whilst King's Castle has won four on the bounce and the entire field have all won at least one of their last seven efforts.

Only Castel Gandolfo raced at Class 2 last time out, landing a 17-runner handicap at Market Rasen but Cuban Cigar and Here Comes Georgie both step up one level from Class 3, whilst the remainder of the field all raced at Class 4 last time out.

Today will be just the second time in a handicap for Kinbara Firstdraft, Here Comes Georgie and Annie Agnew with the first of that trio one of four (Cirque Royal, Scots Poet and Well Planted being the others) past course and distance winners, although the entire field have all won at least once over a similar trip to this one, but it's Enthused who stands out on Instant Expert's 2-year form overview...

King's Castle should love the good ground here, but Castel Gandolfo and Well Planted have several defeats on this going and in general! They have both also struggled over the trip, as has Cuban Cigar, whilst Well Planted also has a poor record at this venue and I think I've probably now written enough about him from a win perspective, although when you see his place form, you'd think I was talking about a different horse!

...and in a race where the bookies will pay four (some go five) places, it might be foolish to discount him and also Cuban Cigar entirely as E/W possibles. so, based purely, on the above graphic, the ones who appeal to me from an E/W or placed finish perspective are...

We have no draw stats to contend with here, of course, so let's see what kind of tactics might best be employed to win or make the frame here...

Past similar races have suggested that leaders an prominent runners are best suited to this contest, so in an ideal world, a fair few of the seven runners above will have regularly raced in more advanced positions. We can quickly check their last four (or all three in Annie Agnew's case) outings and they look like this...

...and from this, I think I'm going to set Well Planted and Cuban Cigar aside, although Sod's Law will now dictate that they both run excellent races here. Oslo is also borderline on pace and I think I best be best off concentrating on the quartet who'll chase and hopefully catch Chaos Control.

Summary

So, I've ended up with (in racecard order) Enthused, King's Castle, Kinbara Firstdraft and Annie Agnew and I'd be more than happy to place a small E/W wager on any/all of the four if I can get 8/1 or bigger about them. From a win perspective, it's Instant Expert standout Enthused and the form horse King's Castle who interest me the most and I'd probably take the former to edge out the latter here, but I'd no odds to quote at the time I published my piece.

Have a great weekend and I'll be back on Sunday for a preview for Monday's racing.

Chris

Racing Insights, Friday 16/08/24

/in /by

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have produced a pair of qualifiers from the same race...

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards, which for this Friday are...

  • 3.45 Newbury
  • 5.00 Tramore
  • 5.35 Tramore
  • 6.30 Thirsk
  • 6.38 Tramore
  • 7.25 Newmarket

...and I think I'll look at the battle between H4C report runners Aces Wild and Nelson Gay in the 4.10 Wolverhampton, a 7-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed 5f 21yds on standard tapeta...

Only the fast finisher Aces Wild made the frame on their last run, as he won here over course and distance by a head 18 days ago for a third C&D win in the last five months. Elsewhere Pop Dancer won seven races ago, but the rest of the field are winless in seven or more outings with very few placed finishes!

Dubai Station, Ancient Times and Nelson Gay all drop a class from Class 4 today, whilst Mondammej was last seen going down by 7 lengths at Class 2. Phoenix beach steps up in class as he runs for Scott Dixon for the first time, having failed to won any of his last seven for Richard Fahey.

Nelson Gay, Aces Wild and Ancient Times have all raced in the last 2 to 4 weeks, Mondammej and Dubai Station have had a couple of months rest, whilst Phoenix Beach and Pop Dancer return from breaks of 10 weeks and 3 months respectively.

Phoenix Beach is the only one of the seven yet to win over this trip and like Ancient Times, he has yet to win here at Wolverhampton. Of the five course winners, only Dubai Station has yet to win over course and distance as his 5f win came at Haydock and his course win here was over 6f.

The 2-year form shown on Instant Expert isn't exactly littered with wins, but our pair from the H4C report catch the eye, as does Pop Dancer...

The going looks against Dubai Station, Mondammej and Nelson Gay here and Mondammej has a poor return over 5f on the A/W, whilst Phoenix Beach's record at Class 5 isn't great. Dubai Station and Mondammej are rated some 15lbs and 27lbs lower than their last A/W wins, but that's because they're on losing runs of 16 and 39 races respectively rather than them being better than their mark might suggest and Mondammej's figures don't even improve if we focus on placed finishes either...

And this graphic surely puts paid to any chance of me putting money on him or Ancient Times, even if the pair are situated in what looks the better half of the draw if there is one...

That said, it's a five furlong sprint, so the emphasis in a small field is going to be on early speed and front-runners have dominated those 120 races above...

...providing some 36.7% of the winners and some 27.3% of the placers from just 18.4% of the winners, which based on recent outings...

...could be good news for connections of Pop Dancer.

Summary

Not well drawn and not particularly suited by the pace profiling today, Aces Wild still won last time out over this course and distance from stall 7 (as he is today) from the rear of the field. He's the only runner coming here in any real form and must be the one to beat despite the above analysis suggesting he might struggle.

I'd no odds to hand when I wrote this piece just after 3pm on Thursday, but I suspect he'll go off shorter than 2/1, which isn't normally my bag. That said, he's a course and distance specialist in good form and 2/1, if available, might be a very good price.

Elsewhere, the rest of the field are much of a muchness, but the one I have some interest in is Pop Dancer, who scored well enough on Instant Expert, has been drawn in stall 1 and is likely to lead. He was 3 lengths behind Aces Wild last time out, but re-opposes 4lbs better off which might get him a little closer.

 

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