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Tix Picks, Friday 20/09/24

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Friday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Ayr, Kempton, Newbury & Newton Abbot...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And as I've not tackled an NH placepot before lets head to Newton Abbot, where the going is expected to be good for...

Leg 1 : 2.10 Newton Abbot, a 6-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ maiden hurdle over 2m6f

This looks like a race of two halves here with Tribal Glory, Authoceltic and Shakeyourtailfeather the trio to focus on, but the market is sure to reflect that.

Tribal Glory was a runner-up on debut in a Worcester bumper in July '23 before going one better at thew same venue six weeks later. He was then rested for a year before a first crack at hurdles, finishing second here at Newton Abbot over 2m2½f, beaten by less than a length, whilst staying on well. The step up in trip shouldn't be an issue for a former Irish PTP winner either, so he's the one to beat here for me.

Shakeyourtailfeather has a bit more experience over hurdles and has run well this year. She was 4th of 14 on hurdling debut at Taunton in January, before being brought down four out at Doncaster eight weeks later. She then finished runner-up at both Class 4 and Class 3 before finishing 6th of 12 at Kelso last time out. That wasn't a bad result ast two classes higher than today and she wasn't disgraced on that handicap debut. The two horses in front of her have both made the frame since and dropping down in class and returning to maiden company, she's a threat here.

These are the two I'm playing here.

Leg 2 : 2.40 Newton Abbot, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ mares novice hurdle over 2m1f

Kitty Foyle makes a hurdling debut after a Class 4 flat handicap win at Goodwood last month, whilst Hard As Nail's hurdle form reads 32123 after two wins and a place from four bumper outings, so she shouldn't be fazed by the task in hand.

A Little Something was third of nine on her bumper debut in July and Versace Twentyone has a win and a place from two bumpers ; both make a hurdling debut today, but it's a third crack for Pure Gold, after finishing 3rd of 12 at Uttoxeter in July and then 2nd of 9 at Worcester last month.

Asian Star also makes a hurdles debut here after two bumper outings, finishing 5th of 18 at Cheltenham in mid-April and then 3rd of 13 at Southwell three weeks later. She was sent off as the 4/5 favourite that day, but went down by 6.5 lengths to 10/1 shot Gale Mahler who has since won all five subsequent starts, including a Listed race at Galway last time out.

Fergal O'Brien runs two in the race (Hard As Nails & Leloopa) and his horses have gone well here over recent years...

..and it's Hard As Nails with the best 2yr place profile...

and with front-runners/prominent runners also doing well over the years here, Hard As Nails is my main pick here. I'm sure Kitty Foyle will be very popular after her Flat win last time out, but NH form prevails for me today and I'll also go with Asian Star and Pure Gold from this one.

Leg 3 : 3.15 Newton Abbot, a 4-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ novice chase over 2m5½f

A small field, but all four come here with a few wins under their belts. At the age of ten Glynn took a while to get used to fences after making the frame in four of nine starts over hurdles and won here at Newton Abbot over 2m5f and then over 2m6½f at Stratford just five days later off a 7lbs higher mark. He's up another 3lbs here, making life more difficult.

Riskinthefground struggled at 2m7f and beyond over fences, but has dropped back in trip slightly this year winning at distances ranging from 2m4f to 2m6f, finishing 11151 in five starts this year. The only defeat came in the Class 1 Summer Plate at Market Rasen, so no disgrace there and he could be the one to beat here.

Lallygag has been in great form over hurdles of late, finishing 32O11 in his last five starts and it is hoped that this recent form can be translated to fences, as he reverts back to the bigger obstacles for the first time since December 2023 when he was disappointing in both attempts.

Secret Trix makes a chasing debut after being in consistently good form over hurdles for nearly two years, finishing 133111221421P with wins as high as Class 2. If he can bring anything like kind of consistency to fences, he has a great chance here.

To be honest, I'm not sure how to split this quartet and I want to get through the race still with a live bet, so it's a cautious/coward's approach to take all four ahead of hopefully easier handicap races to analyse!

Leg 4 : 3.50 Newton Abbot, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m1f

Electric Eddy is our sole LTO winner, but the fast finisher United Front, Therapist and Outback Frontiers all made the frame and I wouldn't be too surprised if one or more of these made the frame again today.

Therapist actually drops in class today, so that should make her more competitive and possibly the one to beat, although as shown above Fergal O'Brien's runners go well here, which is another tick for United Front on his second handicap run.

Instant Expert also throws the hats of Pak Army and Lady Gwen into the mix...

...whilst the pace data points towards Pak Army, United Front and Electric Eddy from those we've already highlighted.

And with Therapist being the one I thought might be the one to beat, I need to get rid of at least one of them and that's going to be Pak Army, based purely on his recent form not being as good as the others and the fact that his jockey has yet to win a race. So, it's United Front, Therapist & Electric Eddy for me.

Leg 5 : 4.25 Newton Abbot, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m1f

My initial thoughts were that this might boil down to the likes of Colonel Lesley, Karannelle, Addosh and possibly Juggernaut, but that's neither a definitive nor exhaustive list! None of the field won last time out, but course and distance winner Colonel Lesley was a runner-up for a sixth top three finish (inc 2 wins) from his last eight starts and fellow course and distance winner Karannelle is 1533 in his last four, finishing 133 here at Newton Abbot over trips of 2m1f to 2m3f, whilst he hails from a yard with a good record of making the frame at this track...

Instant Expert also steers us back to Colonel Lesley...

As with the race above (Div 1 of the same race), a prominent racing position would be ideal, but there's not actually a great deal of pace on offer here, as shown by the top three in the averages...

...but Juggernaut might be afforded an easy early lead which could be enough to keep them in the frame.

Karannelle, Juggernaut & Colonel Lesley it is, then!

Leg 6 : 4.55 Newton Abbot, an 8-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m6f

And we conclude with what should be on paper the best of the six races that features three LTO winners in the shape of Finisk River, Wonderful Eagle and Melton Mossy and all three are in the bottom half of the weights along with Clearance who has finished third in each of his last two starts, both on this track and he, like Finisk River, drops in class today.

Wonderful Eagle is the only runner to have won over course and distance and after wins on both A/W and Flat tracks, he returns to hurdling where he has two wins and a place from five starts, but he does seem to be playing second/third fiddle in Instant Expert, as both Finisk River and Clearance have eye-catching place stats...

...but Wonderful Eagle does seem well suited by the pace profile on a track where prominence has paid off...

...and I'm going to stick with the lower half of the card and take Finisk River, Clearance and Wonderful Eagle.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 1 & 6

Leg 2: horses 1, 3 & 10

Leg 3: horses 1, 2, 3 & 4

Leg 4: horses 3, 4 & 6

Leg 5: horses 5, 6 & 8

Leg 6: horses 5, 6 & 7

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Tix Picks, Thursday 19/09/24

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Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Ayr, Chelmsford, Pontefract and Yarmouth...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

I've not had any A/W action for a while, so let's head to Chelmsford, where the going on the Polytrack is (as usual) declared to be standard and our placepot races are...

Leg 1 : 4.20 Chelmsford, a 7-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ handicap over 1m2f

After the withdrawal of Laser Focus, The Bay Warrior now remains as the sole LTO winner in the field, although Silver Nightfall has made the frame in both of her last two starts, as has Platnum Prince and both of these LTO placers are down in class today, as are Speriamo, Lennys Spirit and Awtaad Prince.

The 11 yr old Stormingin might be coming towards the closing stages of his career, but has finished 124 in his last 3 runs on the A/W, includibng a win and a runner-up finish here over course and distance and his place record over the last two years is impressive...

...whilst most of the field also have some decent numbers behind them. Lenny's Spirit looks the weakest at 8lbs higher than his last win and a 0/6 record on standard going. Platinum Prince is interestingly 2lbs lower than his own last win and in stall 3, he seems well drawn according to the PRB3 scores, which also look good for Silver Nightfall and Stormingin...

That said, it's usually pace that wins the race here at Chelmsford, but this looks like it might well be a falsely run affair with little real pace early on, although Silver Nightfall might take it on, based on her last two runs..

I've struggled with race 1 these last few days and with the amateur jockeys also creating some uncertainty for me, I'm takjng three runners here; Silver Nightfall, Platinum Prince and Stormingin.

Leg 2 : 4.55 Chelmsford, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 5f

Thisismydream has been in the first three home in seven of his twelve starts this year, winning twice. Hi Hoh Tonto was third last time out, whilst former course and distance winner Lion Ring was third two starts ago before winning last time out.

The Defiant won over course and distance back in March and comes back into focus here as he drops in class after three top-3 finishes in his last five outings and at 5lbs below that last win, he scores pretty well on Instant Expert...

...as do Spanish Angel and Agostino amongst others and from the above, I'm most interested in...

...whose pace scores are as follows...

...leaving me with four to pick from. I don't want to take four here if truth be told and Agostino will have to miss out on form. I hope that omission doesn't return to haunt me, but I'm taking Thisismydream, The Defiant & Lion Ring here.

Leg 3 : 5.30 Chelmsford, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6f

We highlighted Saint Riquier at Brighton two days ago where he failed to land his hat-trick and although he'll go off short again here, he might not be a clearcut selection today, as plenty of his rivals are running well too, especially Kinetic (2111 in her last four) and Standbackandlook (2113 in his last four) with both receiving an 8lb allowance here as 3 yr olds.

I think it has to be this trio vs the field and of these three, only Standbackandlook has raced over this trip, finishing third at Nottingham and winning twice at Wolverhampton, so Standbackandlook is definitely in for me here and from a value/last run perspective, I'll also take Kinetic over Saint Riquier.

Leg 4 : 6.00 Chelmsford, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f

The fast finishing Q Twenty Boy's win here over 5f three starts (and five weeks) ago is the only win registered by any of this field in their last seven races, but Blue Collar Lad and Don't Fight It were both runners-up in their most recent outings. Q Twenty Boy is also a former course and distance winner having won a division of this race last year.

The pace chart favours these runners...

...with two of our more 'in-form runners' featured, whilst both Blue Collar Lad and Q Twenty Boy feature well on Instant Expert.

Blue Collar Lad is also drawn in the preferred lower half of the draw, so we're taking him along with possible outsiders Q Twenty Boy and Don't Fight It for a three-pronged attack for this one.

Leg 5 : 6.30 Chelmsford, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f

My initial shortlist here on form was Doves of Peace (6 top-3 finishes from 8), Cut To The Chase (placed in each of her last two), whilst fast finisher Comedian Leader, Maverick Style and Irrelevant were also in the frame on their last run. Of these Maverick Style and Cut To The Chase are both 3 yr olds, so receive a 5lbs weight allowance, which could be more than handy.

Of those mentioned above, only Maverick Style has a lower half draw, although Comedian Leader is only in stall 7 of 12. Instant Expert suggests we focus upon these runners...

...which pretty much backs up where I'm at, so I just need to stick my neck out and make a selection, as any three from those seven could easily fill the frame today. Doves of Peace and Cut To The Chase look hard to ignore from Instant Expert, but I think I'll also take a chance on Back from Dubai. He's drawn low kin stall 1 and likes to race prominently, so he could be better than his odds might suggest.

Leg 6 : 7.00 Chelmsford, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f

The second division of the above race has no LTO winners, but Twitch was a runner-up, as was Capallcliste for the second race in a row, whilst Tilsworth Max finished third. Both Twitch and Tilsworth Max were racing over course and distance when placed too.

Dashing Donkey is also of interest with a 3lb weight allowance; he has won two of his last four starts and although not ideally drawn in stall 11, looks like he might be the pace in the race...

and I think I'll take Dashing Donkey along with Twitch and Capallcliste.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 1, 7 & 8

Leg 2: horses 1, 7 & 10

Leg 3: horses 6 & 7

Leg 4: horses 3, 4 & 8

Leg 5: horses 3, 4 & 6

Leg 6: horses 2, 3 & 4

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Tix Picks, Wednesday 18/09/24

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Wednesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Beverley, Kelso, Sandown & Yarmouth...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

...so let's head to Sandown, where the going is expected to be good to soft, but better in places on the round course for....

Leg 1 : 1.50 Sandown, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 5f

Harb won this race last year off a mark 3lbs higher than today and comes here off the back of a win, having scored over course and distance here less than three weeks ago, as did Secret Handsheikh nine days ago. Soul Seeker was third last time out but is winless in 12, whilst the consistent Media Guest has a win and four runner-up finishes from his last eight starts.

Harb looks the lost likely to succeed based on Instant Expert...

...but low drawn runners (Secret Handsheikh & Soul Seeker) appear to have the edge...

(2) Secret Handsheikh is the likely pacemaker here and I'll take him along with (5) Harb from this one.

Leg 2 : 2.20 Sandown, an 11-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 1m

Three of the field have never raced before, Prince of The Seas and Wild Nature were both runners-up on debut with the other six runners failing to make the frame in nine combined starts. Even if all of them improve this time out, it's hard to see any of them dislodging Prince of The Seas and Wild Nature from the frame. Of the newcomers, Almeric would be of interest if the market got behind him, but for me it has to be (6) Prince of The Seas and (11) Wild Nature.

Leg 3 : 2.50 Sandown, a 7-runner, Class 4, 2yo novice stakes over 7f

Rock Doro was slowly away on debut at Chelmsford three weeks ago, but still managed to get going enough to finish second, three quarters of a length behind 4/9 fav Bay City Roller, whose next/latest outing was a win in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last weekend. I'm not say Rock Doro is that good, but any similar run to last time out should be more than enough here.

Of the others, Keble Spirit interests me. He's by Too Darn Hot and the Gosdens have a good record with debutants...

So, I'll take (4) Keble Spirit and (6) Rock Doro here.

Leg 4 : 3.23 Sandown, an 8-runner, 3yo+ Listed race over 1m

This looks a wide-open affair and unusually for a Class1 race, none of the field come here off the back of a win, although Checkandchallenge and Imperial Quarter both finished third and Elnajmm had finished 222111 in his first six races before a 3.5 length defeat at York last time out was only good enough for 9th place in a competitive 18 runner handicap at York.

A higher draw would be preferred here, which would benefit Beshtani (in first time cheekpieces), Checkandchallenge and Cash...

with the pace/draw heat map backing this up and adding the consistent Elnajmm back into the mix...

From a stat perspective, Elnajmm might benefit from an excellent trainer/jockey partnership...

And based on the above, I think I need to take (5) Elnajmm forward, along with (3) Checkandchallenge, whilst (2) Cash is interesting. he's well drawn, won't have too much traffic to pass and if running like he did in Class 1 races last year, could well spring a surprise here, so I have to take him too!

Leg 5 : 3.55 Sandown, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ fillies handicap over 1m

Windcrack is likely to be popular after a course and distance win last time out, whilst Fleurir was a runner-up and won three starts ago. Own Accord was also a runner-up last time and has won two of her last five. Powdering was last home of 11 at Ascot on her last outing, but had finished 131114 in her previous six starts, so a return to form can't be discounted. Crystal Casque made the frame in two of her last three but has 2 wins and 5 further places from 12 runs here at Sandown and her recent place stats stack up well...

...whilst higher draws (Fleurir & Dreamrocker from above?)

...and frontrunning seem to be the order of the day

...ticking another box for Fleurir...

So, Instant Expert, pace and draw all point to (4) Fleurir, so she's a pick here. I like (3) Crystal Casque from Instant Expert and also due to her great record at this venue (a win & 4 places from 7 over C&D) and whilst I could make a case for a few of these, I don't want to go too deep, so I'll just take (6) Dreamrocker who ticks boxes on Instant Expert and the draw, plus she has a win and two places from her last four outings.

Leg 6 : 4.25 Sandown, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo handicap over 1m2f

Carnival Day is the only one to have won last time out, but plenty of these have some good recent results. High Point is two from three, LTO runner-up Salamanca Lad has three wins and two places from his last six, Miaswell has two wins and a place from four and the sole filly in the race, Niloufar has four wins and a runner-up finish from her last seven and is one to consider on form at what might be a big price.

Front runners have done well in similar past races here and that will be good news for the likes of High Point & Salamanca Lad...

...and Salamanca Lad's team love it here at Sandown...

...whilst Miaswell's jockey, Jason Watson is riding really well right now...

And I'm taking (1) High Point (pace/form), (2) Salamanca Lad (pace/form/stats) and (4) Miaswell (form/jockey) here for the finale.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 2 & 5

Leg 2: horses 6 & 11

Leg 3: horses 4 & 6

Leg 4: horses 2, 3 & 5

Leg 5: horses 3, 4 & 6

Leg 6: horses 1, 2 & 4

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Tix Picks, Tuesday 17/09/24

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Tuesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Brighton, Newcastle, Redcar & Yarmouth...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And I think we'll head South to Brighton where the going is expected to be good for our six races starting with...

Leg 1 : 2.20 Brighton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f

(2) Realised was third last time out, albeit almost 14 weeks ago, but he was the only runner here to make the frame on their last outing. (3) Bear To Dream has two wins and a play from his last five starts, making him the ‘form’ horse, whilst (1) Lochaber and (5) Thunderous Love both won five starts ago with the rest of the field now winless in seven or more. Thunderous Love now drops in class and wears cheekpieces for the first time.

Card Stats : Harry Eustace (2-Realised) runners have made the frame here at Brighton in 5 of 10 over the last year and 13 of 23 over five years.

This could be a falsely run affair with no pronounced front-runner in the race...

...which would then favour/allow the 'better' runners to run their own race, although Lochaber, Another Jack, Realised and Bear To Dream have all set the pace once in their last four starts.Thunderous Love might struggle to land a blow from the back of the pack or I might have been interested.

Pretty unimaginative stuff from me here, as my 1-2-3 would be Bear To Dream, Realised & Lochaber. I only want to take two from this race, so I'll omit Realised in pursuit of a better price on Lochaber!

Selection :  (1) Lochaber & (3) Bear To Dream

Leg 2 : 2.50 Brighton, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ maiden over 7f

I’m not going to beat about the bush here and I’d be very shocked if (2) Usuario Amigo didn’t bolt up here. He has made the frame twice at Class 4 and once at Class 3 (two starts ago) and he’d be my banker today.

Card Stats : Charlie Longsdon (3-Artemsia) runners have made the frame in 4 of 7 over the last fortnight and 7 of 14 over the past 30 days.

Selection :(2) Usuario Amigo

Leg 3 : 3.20 Brighton, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f

Joint top-weight (1) Gallimimus is the sole LTO winner in the pack, but (5) Fighting Poet won his penultimate start and has made the frame in each of his last three. (2) Villalobos and (7) Clear Justice both finished 6th last time out, but have both won two of their last four, whilst bottom-weight (11) First Encounter has a win and a runner-up finish from his last three.

Card Stats : 11 of John Gallagher’s (1-Gallimimus) LTO winners have gone on to make the frame next time out. John O’ Shea (4-Letter of the Law) has 6 placers from 11 here over the last year.

The place pace/draw heat map points to front runners literally leading the way here...

...which is much better news for the likes of Villalobos than it is for Fighting Poet...

...but the Poet is in good nick despite being a persistent back marker. Gallimimus has led in two of his last three, so I'm happy to take him too.

Selection : we'll take three here, (1) Gallimimus(2) Villalobos (5) Fighting Poet yet still be worried about (4) Letter Of The Law

Leg 4 : 3.50 Brighton, an 8-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f

(1) Saint Riquier comes here on a hat-trick, drops in class and is unpunished for 10-length stroll at Leicester a week ago. He was in the frame at Class 4 in early-August before those two Class 5 wins and it’s very difficult to see him not being in the first three home. Such is his apparent dominance here, there’s a chance that the other seven runners might all be double-digit odds, the interesting one of those might be the 8 yr old (6) Torbellino who was only caught very late on in a defeat here over course and distance last time out when collared by Fighting Poet. Fighting Poet runs in the 3.20 race, of course and that might indicate how Torbellino might run.

Card Stats : Sheena West (4-Gearing’s Point) has 7 placers from 9 runners turned back out within 7 days of their last run.

Saint Riquier will go off really short and is ideally placed on the pace/draw stats to win the race, never mind make the frame!

Selection (1) Saint Riquier

Leg 5 : 4.20 Brighton, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m

The fast-finishing (1) Walefya was a runner-up beaten by a head over this trip on the Tapeta at Southwell last time out, just six days after winning here over course and distance, whilst (2) Romanovich has two wins and a place from his last four starting with a course and distance win here in early August and a win at Chepstow three weeks ago. Of the others, (3) Interestnpenalities is coming a bit of a nearly horse, having been a runner-up now in each of his last three starts, but did win over 7f at Wolverhampton on St George’s Day. (4) Sorontar & (5) Heers Sadie both finished third recently, but both look to have plenty to find against the other three above.

Card Stats : (1) Waleyfa’s yard have had 14 placers from their 28 runners over the last 30 days, John O’ Shea (2-Romanovich) has 6 placers from 11 here over the last year.

I see a Waleyfa/Romanovich 1-2 here based on form/stats and they're going to head the market, which isn't good for pot building, but I can't see any of the others getting to them. Of those others, the unexposed (4) Sorontar might be the one to build upon a third place finish at Windsor last time out, but third might be as good as he gets here, which isn't helpful in a 7-runner field.

Selection (1) Waleyfa (2) Romanovich

Leg 6 : 4.50 Brighton, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f

(1) Otago won last time out, as did (10) Forgotten Treasure, who has two wins and place from his last five outings, but the runner bringing the best set of results to the table is hat-trick seeking (6) Split Elevens, whose last six results read 211311. Elsewhere former course and distance winners (3) Poetic Force and (4) Electric Avenue both drop in class. The former narrowly missed out on making the frame here over course and distance last time out, whilst the latter is now only 1lb higher than that C&D win from mid-June.

Card Stats : William Knight (10-Forgotten Treasure) has four placers from five Brighton runners over the last year (three wins) and his LTO winners have made the frame in 28 of 45 races next time out, winning 14 (31.1%) of them.

Forgotten Treasure is also the pick of the pack from the win pace/draw heat map here...

...although those drawn highest are well suited too, whilst Instant Expert points us towards Otago, the out of form Amathus, Electric Avenue, Split Elevens and Forgotten Treasure...

 

I think I'm going to go fairly deep here in a bid to consolidate what we have, if we're still in the running.

Selection (1) Otago (3) Poetic Force (4) Electric Avenue (6) Spilt Elevens (10) Forgotten Treasure

Leg 1: horses 1 & 3

Leg 2: horse 2

Leg 3: horses 1, 2 & 5

Leg 4:horse 1

Leg 5: horses 1 & 5

Leg 6: horses 1, 3, 4, 6 & 10

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Tix Picks, Monday 16/09/24

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Hope you all had a great weekend. I certainly enjoyed taking Sunday off, but we now go again, as Monday's placepots can be played via Tix at Kempton, Thirsk, Windsor & Worcester...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

From which, I've decided to tackle the first six races at Windsor, where the going is expected to be good to soft for these races...

Leg 1 : 1.35 Windsor, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 6f

None of these won their last race, but Harrys Halo and Lahina Bay were both runners-up and the former has made the frame in four of his last six starts. The latter is a former course and distance winner, as are Punchbowl Flyer & Vape and it's Harrys Halo, Lahina Bay & Vape who score best on Instant Expert...

...whilst pace/draw...

...give Vape a huge chance here. My three horse shortlist here would then be (1) Harrys Halo, (6) Lahina Bay and (7) Vape. Lahina Bay looks worst off on pace and I don't want to take three runners here, so I'll leave her out. (5) Punchbowl Flyer is a danger too and might fit your perms if you're going deeper than I am!

Leg 2 : 2.07 Windsor, a 9-runner, Class 5, 2yo Fillies Restricted Novice Stakes over 5f

The top four on the card are the ones with the experience and of the four (Amestris, Aviation Time, Seraphim Angel & OverSpiced), only Aviation Time is yet town over 5f, but she did finish third at both Class 2 and in a Listed race earlier this year and drops three classes here. Amestris actually drops four classes here after a three length defeat in a Listed race. Without diving too deeply into the race, I can see this contest quite possibly being a match between this pair and I’ll just a safety-first approach with (1) Amestris and (2) Aviation Time.

Leg 3 : 2.37 Windsor, a 14-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ Novice Stakes over 1m

Thyer won last time out, but hasn’t raced since that win 54 weeks ago during which time he has moved yards. Noisy Jazz and Run Away both own on debut before finishing 6th next/last time out at higher grades than this.

None of the others have won a race, whilst Muhib and Tex are making debuts here. Breathless Spirit was a runner-up beaten by just half a length at Chelmsford and a similar run puts him in the mix here.

Stalls 5 to 8 seem to be the best place to run from here (Muhib, Breathless Spirit, Saved Lizzie, Tex)

...whilst Noisy Jazz has set the pace in each of her two starts to date and that could be fruitful here at Windsor...

So from all this, I prefer (4) Noisy Jazz of the three previous winners, as she is the only Class 4 winner in the field and she's likely to be upfront from an early point. Of those with experience, I'd take (9) Breathless Spirit based on his near miss at Chelmsford last month and the fact that he is drawn in that central 5-8 area and of those with little/no previous experience, (10) Muhib is an interesting sort. He's with one of the elite yards and they've bided their time with him, he's by Too Darn Hot out of Hameem, who won 4 of 13 herself and made the frame in 5 of her 9 defeats.

Leg 4 : 3.12 Windsor, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m3½f

(2) Morcar was a winner here over 1m2f for a second win in four starts when last seen four weeks ago, but steps up in trip, is 7lbs higher today and would probably want quicker ground, but he remains of interest for a place. (1) Mighty Bandit and course winner (3) Fast Steps have both won relatively recently, whilst (5) The Whipmaster is a former course and distance winner, although that was 15 months ago and he’s 0 from 9 since and steps up in class here.

These four are likely to be racing front rank today, if their recent efforts are anything to go by…

…and I think that I'd be happy to stick with the top three on the card here.

Leg 5 : 3.42 Windsor, a 13-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m2f

A tricky looking one to call here with form claims held by many. (1) Party Island has two wins two thirds from his last six, (2) Macari was a runner-up six days ago, course winner (6) New Kings Road has finished 123 in his last three, (10) Darysina Gold has finished 2212 in her last four and bottom weight (13) Idyllic is the only LTO winner in the field and has finished 2331 in her last four.

Idyllic is, however, up in class today, but both Party Island and New Kings Road drop down from Class 4, whilst from a status perspective, Macari’s claims are boosted by the fact that since 2009, trainer Sheena West is 11 from 28 (39.3% SR) with four further placers from runners in Windsor handicaps who are her only runner at the track that day.

Not usually my thing, but in such an open contest, I’m taking all five from the well!

Leg 6 : 4.12 Windsor, a 13-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m

My initial thoughts here were that in card order, course and distance winner (2) Daisy Roots (121 in her last three), (5) Absolutely Buzzing (LTO winner) and (9) Judge Frank (also won LTO) would be amongst those favoured to do well, but I suspect they’ll also be the first three in the market, which isn’t ideal.

(11) Oriental Spirit and (12) Roman Spring were both runners-up last time, though and the former is noted as a fast finisher. Absolutely Buzzing and Judge Frank are two of five three year olds getting a 4lbs weight allowance.

Pace is often the key to going well here at Windsor and based on the field’s last four races, both Daisy Roots and Roman Spring appear in the first three…

...whilst Judge Frank is likely to race prominently too and he's very conveniently drawn in the central area that seems to do well over a mile here. If truth be told, it might be a bit of a stretch for either or both Roman Spring and/or Oriental Spirit to run two good races in a row, but they do look dangerous and I don't really want to leave any of the top three out from the last leg, in case we're still in with a chance of winning something. I am reluctantly going to take five shots again, but if I was to leave one out, it would probably be Absolutely Buzzing.

All of which gives me an overall (late race heavy) selection of...

Leg 1: horses 1 & 7

Leg 2: horses 1 & 2

Leg 3: horses 4, 9 & 10

Leg 4: horses 1, 2 & 3

Leg 5: horses 1, 2, 6, 10 & 13

Leg 6: horses 2, 5, 9, 11 & 12

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good luck however you play this one, I'm off to see some monkeys!
Chris.

 

Tix Picks, Saturday 14/09/24

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I'm told there was a nice little profit from my first crack at the Tix ticket builder yesterday, so hopefully it wasn't just beginner's luck. Saturday's placepots can be played via Tix at Bath, Chester, Doncaster, Lingfield and Musselburgh...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

That's a huge pot on offer at Donny, but I'll leave that to the big boys and head the right side of the Pennines for a trip to the Roodee, where I'm expecting tricky contests on testing heavy ground for these races...

Leg 1 : 1.35 Chester, a 7-runner, Class 2, 2yo maiden stakes over 7f…

No previous winners on show, of course, but Noble Phoenix (3rd), Sir Peter Fossick (2nd) and Rock Diva (3rd) all finished in the frame and Tactical Plan has been placed in three of his last four including finishing third here in a nursery over course and distance two starts ago and was also a soft ground runner-up at Brighton in June and is one of only two runners (Itsneverjustone was 5th of 11 LTO) to have run on soft ground; none have tackled heavy!

The trainer snippets on the card show that Andrew Balding’s runners have a good record of making the frame on their second start, so that’s another tick for Noble Phoenix

…whilst on a track where front-running is often the key, I suspect the in-form Sir Peter Fossick will attempt to set the pace if his three career runs so far are anything to go by…

So, with all that in mind and a safety first approach, I'm taking runners (2) Noble Phoenix, (3) Sir Peter Fossick, (5) Tactical Plan and (7) Rock Diva.

Leg 2 : 2.05 Chester, an 8-runner, 3yo+ listed race over 1m4½f…

La Yakel was a winner three weeks ago and like Star Harbour has two wins and a runner-up finish from his last four outings. Likely favourite Al Qareem might not have won any of six starts since landing this race last year and then a Group 3 at Ascot back in October, but he has been a runner-up in three Gr 3 races in that six-race cold spell, so I wouldn’t necessarily rule him out here based purely on wins.

His ability to make the frame is clearly the best on show here and all three runners mentioned above (plus Cristal Clere) have raced and placed on heavy ground already, but Al Qareem is the only one of the four without a heavy ground win…

La Yakel's hopes of making the frame are boosted by his yard's success with LTO winners with over 46% of them getting placed next time out...

...whilst the pace data points towards Al Qareem and Star Harbour setting the tone of the race...

There might not be much between shorties (1) Al Qareem and (6) La Yakel here on heavy ground, so I’ll have to take both for insurance, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if (7) Star Harbour ran a big race to outrun his fairly long odds.

Leg 3 : 2.40 Chester, a 13-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 2m…

It’s not a particularly good renewal of this race this year, but we do have last year’s 1-2 on show as Tashkhan attempts to see Emiyn off again and he’s actually better off at the weights this time around which will help, as will be hoped from his first-time visor. That said, Emiyn comes here in much better form having made the frame in each of his last two runs and three of his last five, making him one of the more in-form runners in a field containing just one LTO winner, Spirit Mixer.

Tashkan and Emiyn have both won on heavy ground before, a feat only matched by Goobinator from their rivals and it’s Emiyn who looks the pick of the pack from a 2yr place perspective, although Vera Verto now becomes of note too…

 

I’m also always looking out for stats pointing to a 50% or better place strike rate and for Tashkan the 30-day trainer/jockey combo have 7 wins and 4 further places from 22 runs, taking another box for this class-dropper.

So, it might be a little unimaginative, but I’m with (1) Tashkan and (4) Emiyn and wary of (8) Vera Verto. I could consider Spirit Mixer & Roberto Escobar, but then things start getting a little out of hand!

Leg 4 : 3.20 Chester, a 9-runner, Class 4, 2yo nursery over 5f…

A really competitive looking sprint here where the top seven in a nine-runner market might be pretty closely matched on price, which does’t always help us.The two Invincible fillies (Song & Annice) both won on their last outing, but all nine runners have won at least once already, but Ardennes and Teej A have yet to win over this trip.

Teej A has, however, won here at Chester, landing a 6f maiden back in May, whilst Fuji Mountain is our sole course and distance winner, having won a Class 4 Novice event here in July and he now drops back to this grade after two Class 1 outings.

Invincible Annice is the only runner in the field to have raced on heavy ground, winning at Hamilton over 5f ten days ago and she’s got a great draw here in stall 2, but the pace in the race is likely to come from Invincible Song in the next stall or from Ardennes from out wide with Kodibeat and Fuji Mountain also handily placed. With stalls 7 & 8 having early pace, that’s likely to cut Teej A and Jm Jhingree out of things whilst the runners in stalls 2 to 4 will probably do likewise to Pont Neuf on the rail.

Of the top four on the pace chart, I’m not that keen on Kodibeat if truth be told, but I’m struggling to separate the other three and I do like Invincible Annice too, so it looks like the perms are getting bigger, as I think I need to take all of (1) Fuji Mountain, (4) Ardennes, (5) Invincible Song and (9) Invincible Annice!

Leg 5 : 4.05 Chester : a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap over 1m2½f…

Another competitive-looking affair (I think I've picked a tough meeting here!) where more than half of the field seem like they'll go off in the 3/1 to 6/1 price bracket. None of these come here on the back of a win, but both Paddy The Squire and Stressfree have been in the frame in each of their last three races (five in fact for Paddy!), so they’re the ‘form’ horses, I suppose. Again, we’ve little experience/success on heavy ground as referenced by Instant Expert…

…where City Streak, Paddy The Squire and Stressfree are the standouts and it’s the latter who is our only heavy ground winner. And if we're looking for stat pointers (50%+ place SR), then Stressfree comes to mind again...

...making it really hard for me to ignore him, so it's going to be (5) Paddy The Squire and (7) Stressfree for me here, but I might regret omitting City Streak.

Leg 6 : 4.40 Chester : a 13-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 7½f…

And we round off with a big field handicap which again looks like being a tight contest. Paws For Thought and Transitioning both won last time out, the latter as recently as yesterday here over course and distance and both of them have won two of their last four, making them of immediate interest. Yermanthere also won last time out, albeit for just his second win in three years, whilst Phoenix Passion was 5th of 11 on the A/W at Kempton, ending a run of five straight victories and his career Flat handicap form reads 14111, including a heavy ground success at Goodwood back in May.

A quick look at the 2-year win records also show Paws For Thought, Transitioning and Phoenix Passion in a good light…

...whilst I've used the place stats to narrow the field down to...

...and with the top end of the pace chart looking like this...

...it makes sense for me to take (1) Paws For Thought, (12) Transitioning and (13) Paws For Thought in the finale, giving me an overall selection of...

Leg 1: horses 2, 3, 5 & 7!

Leg 2: horses 1, 6 & 7

Leg 3: horses 1, 4 & 8

Leg 4: horses 1, 4, 5 & 9!

Leg 5: horses 5 & 7

Leg 6: horses 1, 12 & 13

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good luck, everyone and I hope you have a great weekend. I'm travelling from Legian to Ubud today and I'll be back with you all on Monday morning.

Chris 

 

Tix Picks, Friday 13/09/24

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Friday's placepots can be played via Tix at Chester, Doncaster, Sandown and Salisbury...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

There’s a bumper pot available at Doncaster, so let’s head there where the going is expected to be good/good to soft and the first of our six races is…

Leg 1 : 1.50 Doncaster, an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6½f
Shadow Dance has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last five outings, Subsequent has won three of his last four and East India Dock is three from six with all three of them winning last time out and I suspect this will be a three horse race here.

The 3yo Subsequent steps up in class here, but his yard have been amongst the winners of late…

…as have the team behind East India Dock, who’ll also benefit from a 10lbs weight allowance as a 3yr old…

Of the three, East India Dock has a better looking Instant Expert profile than the other two, but that’s down to a lack of relevant races….

And when we look at the pace/draw heat map, it’s Shadow Dance that catches the eye in what might end up being a falsely run race.

From this race, I’ll be taking runners 1 & 8, Shadow Dance and East India Dock.

Leg 2 : 2.25 Doncaster, a 7-runner, 2yo Listed race over 7f
Mubaker, Jonquil and God of War all won last time out, but now step up 1, 3 and 4 classes respectively. Symbol of Honour was a decent 6th of 22 in the Coventry at Royal Ascot, beaten by less than a length and a similar run here puts him right in the mix on his first run after being gelded. He did win his penultimate outing, though.The Waco Kid is also interesting despite being unplaced in his two Class 1 runs since winning at Newbury in July. He posted solid efforts at both Goodwood and York, but it was Oisin Murphy who rode him to victory at Newbury and he’s back in the saddle today, hoping to land yet another winner for Hugo Palmer…

Pace/Draw ticks boxes for LTO winner Mubaker and Symbol of Honour...

...and in a race where there's not a great deal to go off and little to choose between several of the runners, I'll take one fancied runner Symbol of Honour and one at a more value-type price in The Waco Kid, so numbers 6 and 7 on your cards.

Leg 3 : 3.00 Doncaster, an 11-runner, 2yo Group 2 contest over 5f
This looks like a really good/competitive renewal of the Flying Childers with plenty coming here in good form, including LTO winners Tropical Storm, Zayer and Coto de Caza who comes here on a hat-trick. That said, none of this field have raced more than five times before today and all have won at least once, as between them they have made the frame 27 times (inc 15 wins) from just 40 starts with Aesterius placing in three of four and Magnum Force in all three runs.

From a trainer form perspective, Tropical Storm’s yard have 31 wins and 31 further places from 155 runners here at Doncaster since the start of 2018, including 10 wins and 8 places from 46 at Class 1 and their recent overall form is good, too.

Aesterius is the one who has produced the best results so far under today's expected conditions...

...so I'm going to take (1) Aesterius on place form and Instant Expert and (8) Tropical Storm on horse/trainer form, whilst it would be rude of me to ignore (4) Big Mojo after the way he landed the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood recently.

Leg 4 : 3.35 Doncaster, a 6-runner, 3yo+ Group 2 contest over 2m2f

Sweet William is the obvious placer here, having never failed to finish in the first three home in all 13 career starts and when you factor in the fact that his jockey Robert Havlin is not only in decent recent form, but also has a great record for the Gosdens over the last few years (61.7% place strike rate), then Sweet William has to be a solid picks here, but I’m sure the market will reflect that too.

The backup plan for many punters will be stablemate Gregory, but I’ve still got a bit of a soft spot for the oldest horse in the race, Trueshan who won this race last year. He was, admittedly, four lengths behind the afore-mentioned Gosdens pair last time out, but he probably wasn’t suited by ground quicker than he’ll face today and Instant Expert paints him in a really good light…

So, that's runners 4 (Sweet William) and 5 (Trueshan) for leg 4

Leg 5 : 4.10 Doncaster, a 7-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ fillies handicap over 1m4f

Bint Al Daar has two wins and two runner-up finishes from her last four outings and is the only runner in the race not stepping up in class and in a race with no weight allowances, she’d actually be my pick to go on and win the race, but the in-form Cabrera gets 8lbs here as a 3yo and that will make her a hot property in the market in what is is possibly going to be a two-horse race.

A quick look at Instant Expert not only affirms Cabrera’s chances, but also raises questions of most of her rivals…

...whilst the pace/draw heat map seems to favour low drawn runners irrespective of running style

...and with both of these horses drawn inside the first three stalls, the picks have to be (3) Bint Al Daar & (4) Cabrera

Leg 6 : 4.45 Doncaster, a 9-runner, Class 2, 2yo maiden fillies race over 7f

And we close with probably the toughest race to call, so if we're still in the game at this point, we might need some luck.

Only three of the field have even raced before with Berning Hot and Kebili both finishing seventh on their debuts, whilst Whirl has finished fourth and the fifth, suggesting that it might not take much to beat any of this trio.

Of the newcomers, the one that catches my eye first is Kingsclere, a full sister to 2020’s 2000 Guineas winner Kameko, whilst fellow debutante Gulya is a Night of Thunder filly whose half-sister Maroof was a winner at trips up to a mile.

I suspect that these two will be amongst the main players, but at longer odds, I think the likes of Coma Cluster (Sir Michael Stoute has a 30.8% strike rate with 2yo debutants over the last year) and Like A Vision (the O’Meara/Tudhope axis is strong right now) could well get involved.

As with any of these types of races, the market is often a good indicator of things might pan out, so I’ll take the un-named favourite for the place pot along with runners (3) Coma Cluster, (4) Gulya, (6) Kingsclere & (7) Like A Vision.

So that gives me...

Leg 1: horses 1 & 8

Leg 2: horses 6 & 7

Leg 3: horses 1, 4 & 8

Leg 4: horses 4 & 5

Leg 5: horses 3 & 4

Leg 6: horses 3, 4, 6 & 7 plus the fav!

...and here's how I'd play them...

 

Wish me luck, I think I might need it!
Chris

 

Tix Picks, Thursday 12/09/24

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Thursday's placepots can be played via Tix at Doncaster, Epsom and Newcastle...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And whilst it's a bumper pot at Donny, I'm not quite ready for four 2yo races, of which the first two have a total of 36 runners! So, I'm seeking the relative safety of the downs with a look at the Epsom card where the going is said to be soft, starting with...

Leg 1 : 2.00 Epsom, a 7-runner, Class 4, 2yo Novice Stakes over 7f
As ever with 2yo novices, not much to work with, but Bold Impact has made the frame in all three starts so far. His yard are in decent nick and have a good record over the last five years at this venue…

Nidaami also made the frame last time out and his yard have a place strike rate in excess of 50% over the last fortnight/month.

It’s unsurprising that this pair will head the market and they’d be the ones I’d focus on too. Of the unraced runners, Luna Girl (by Sea The Stars & Isango) was a 34,000 gns foal and a €95,000 yearling and looks good on breeding, but is, of course unproven.

Leg 2 : 2.35 Epsom, a 15-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap also over 7f
Roscioli comes here in the best form (212 in his last three) whilst Gdaay and King Cabo both won their penultimate outings. Marlay Park won this race in both 2021 and 2023 with Hodler winning it in 2022, whilst Instant Expert suggests Redredrobin and Optiva Star might run big races too…

...whilst Beau Jardine will certainly like the underfoot conditions. Of a limited number of similar races, those drawn more centrally have fared best in the past, whilst those prepared to dictate the terms of the race have also done well and with a pace/draw make-up as follows...

...that's G'daay, Roscioli, Marlay Park, King Cabo and Red Mirage on draw and King Cabo, Red Mirage, The Caribbean and Larado on pace. Counting back, King Cabo has been mentioned more than the others with G'daay, Marlay Park, Red Mirage and Roscioli also ticking more than one box.

I didn't really want to take five runners from one race, but I think that's where I'm at here, although the better/longer odds will probably come from G'daay and King Cabo.

Leg 3 : 3.10 Epsom, a 9-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 1m2f
No LTO winners here in what initially looks like a 4-horse race between (in card order) Thursday, Imperial Cult, Mrembo and Daphne May. Thursday and Daphne May were both runners-up last time, though, whilst Imperial Cult has two wins and a runner-up finish in his last four outings.

Of this quartet, Imperial Cult has yet to win over this trip but he’s the only one not stepping up in class, whilst Daphne May is the only previous course winner, having scored over 1m4f here in July 2023 and then over course and distance four weeks later, although she has been beaten in fourteen runs since that second success.

That said, she is the pick of the four on Instant Expert…

The draw here is said to favour low/mid drawn runners, so that counts against Imperial Cult...

...whilst hold-up horses make the frame most often...

...suggesting that Thursday and possibly Daphne May could benefit...

...and based on the above, I think it's this pair of Daphne May and Thursday that I'll go with for leg 3.

Leg 4 : 3.45 Epsom, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap over 1m4f

Most of this field are stepping up in class, but Miller Spirit drops two classes after finishing 4th of 8 at Goodwood last time around. Parramount was a runner-up on his last start and Haliphon is turned back out just a week after winning on good to soft ground at Haydock. Enochdhu is also of interest here because his yard is in good nick, have a good record here at Epsom and do well with horses turned back out quickly…

and I think that these four would form my shortlist. I suspect Haliphon will go off fairly short after last week's win, so we might need to look elsewhere if we wanted a bit of value with Enochdhu and Parramount the more obvious candidates from that perspective, whilst our pace/draw heat map suggests Haliphon and Parramount are the ones here...

You can make a case for all four, but I definitely want Parramount in my selections based on his last run, his pace/draw heat map and also the place stats on Instant Expert...

...and these also point to Enochdhu running well on the soft ground, so I'll take runners 4 and 6 (Parramont & Enochdhu) here.

Leg 5 : 4.20 Epsom, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo handicap also over 1m4f

Dubawi Time has finished 122 in three efforts over today’s trip and he alongside Small Fry (a win and a runner-up finish in his last two) are the form horses here. Dubai Time is actually the only runner in the race to win over this trip and with his yard in such good form, he’s a pick for me here…

I'd be quite happy to take just the one runner from this race, especially as he leads the way on the place pace/draw heatmap...

If you wanted backup picks, both Small Fry and Bittalemon have made the frame in both of their last two outings and both drop in class here and if Bittalemon's first-time blinkers do the trip, he could be the next best to Dubawi Time.

Leg 6 : 4.50 Epsom, a 7-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 1m½f

There’s only really Desfondado and New Heights that I’m not keen on here initially.

Local Bay has made the frame in five of his last six, winning four times including last time out, so that’s a major positive, whilst Finn Russell also won his last outing. The fast finishing We’renotreallyhere has finished 213 in his last three outings, but is up in class here today, so that might make life difficult for him, whereas our sole course and distance winner Local Bay actually drops in class.

Finn Russell’s claims are backed up by some decent stats for trainer form, jockey form and trainer/jockey form…

...and I think that those stats above and his LTO win are enough for me to go with Finn Russell along with Local Bay, who I find difficult to overlook here, even of the market seems to disagree.

I'm still having some technical difficulties out here (the Indonesian internet police aren't keen on gambling sites), so still no ABCX perms from me, but to summarise, I've identified the following as runners of interest...

 

Leg 1: horses 2 & 3

Leg 2: horses 3 & 5 (plus possibly 1, 4 & 14 if you're doing the perms)

Leg 3: horses 3 & 8

Leg 4: horses 4 & 6

Leg 5: horse 1 (plus possibly 3)

Leg 6: horses 2 & 6

Fingers crossed!

Chris 

Tix Picks, 11th September 2024

/in /by

 

Good Morning, everyone! As promised/threatened, I'm back in the Tix hot seat for a crack at Wednesday's racing for you.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And whilst the biggest pots are at Carlisle, there are some big/tricky fields so as I'm in my infancy with Tix Picks, I'm going to focus on the A/W card at Lingfield for today...

Leg 1 : 2.05 Lingfield

In card order, this looks like a three-horse contest between Honour Your Dreams, Master Dandy and Savannah Smiles who all drop in class today. Master Dandy was a runner-up LTO and the other two both come here off the back of wins. All three have won over 6f already and Savannah Smiles is a course and distance winner. Honour Your Dream is trained by Mick Appleby whose horses are in great form (8/32 in the last fortnight), but it’s Savannah Smiles who catches the eye on Instant Expert…

The pace/draw heat map for this race suggests the further forwrd a horse tuns, the greater the chance of making the frame...

...and with the field's last four average pace scores looking like this...

...Honour Your Dreams and Savannah Smiles look more likely than Master Dandy, so I'm siding with this pair.

Leg 2 : 2.35 Lingfield

Four runners, one debutant. Of the three with the benefit of a run Hello Miss Lady’s runner-up finish at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago is the best on offer. She’s the clear 2/5 favourite and it’s her or the highway here, I think!

Leg 3 : 3.05 Lingfield

A 9-runner nursery with two LTO winners in the shape of Matharu and Lazieelunch, whilst Thiscouldbefun was placed third; Inconspicuous has also already won a race and I’d probably want to focus on these four based on results, although Enchanted Eye has two runner-up finishes from his last three runs and now wears cheekpieces for the first time, which will hopefully help his cause.

Lazieelunch actually beat Matharu last time out with the latter then going on to win, but he’s a pound worse off this time, so they should be pretty closely matched. All five of the shortlist seem to be suited by the pace/draw heat map here...

Enchanted Eye seemingly benefiting the most on this evidence and I think I'll take him based on his profile and take one of either Lazieelunch and Matharu to go with him. When I looked back at the card, I saw this...

...so I'll take Lazieelunch and Enchanted Eye here.

Leg 4 : 3.40 Lingfield

Whoopee! A 2yo maiden fillies race! Bit of a cop out here, but Darn Hot Mystery, Sofia The First, Lillys Bet and Sixteen One all made the frame LTO and are the only past placers in the race. Sixteen One looks the one to beat here, as she only went down by a head on debut, almost five lengths clear of the third placed horse, but her price will reflect the here. To be honest, I’d probably put all four down but if restricting myself to two picks, Lilly’s Bet looks consistent.

Leg 5 : 4.15 Lingfield

More familiar territory here with an 8-runner handicap for 3 yr olds, most of whom come here in mediocre (or worse!) form, except Time Tested, whose last three results read 121 including a course and distance win here last time out. He’s going to go off mightily short here today and it’s him or bust for me on this one, based purely on form alone.

Leg 6 : 4.50 Lingfield

And we round off with another 3yo handicap, this time it's a 6-runner, Class 5 contest over 7f, where the filly Whoop Whoop is the only LTO winner.

Faster Bee and Berry Clever are still maidens after 13 & 11 attempts respectively, so I’m setting them aside here. Of the other four runners Sonmarg and Cherry Hill have made the frame five time and four times from their twelve starts.

A quick look at the pace/draw heat map suggests Cherry Hill is the worst positioned here of the four I'm still considering...

, so I'll set him aside too, leaving me with LTO winner Whoop Whoop, Sonmarg who has the highest place strike rate and front-runner Union Island. I'm definitely taking Whoop Whoop and with Union Island stepping up in class after two poor efforts, Sonmarg is the second pick here.

Apologies for the post being later than I/you would have wanted. I've been beset by all manner of tech issues as I grapple with Indonesian web restrictions, but I'll aim to be earlier tomorrow!

Chris

Tix Picks, 10th September 2024

/in /by

A small winner on Saturday and a loser yesterday, and on we go to Tuesday. Chris is 'transitioning' from cold Lancashire to warm, sunny Bali for... checks notes... the next four weeks! Lucky bugger. He'll still be helping out from there, though, so he will be taking Tix Picks forward after this one from me...

 

 

What is Tix and how can I put it to work for me?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers on smart play can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

 

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a jackpot rollover expected to surpass £50,000. A winning penny line could pay £500+, and I'll be having a tilt (though not until much closer to the off).

 

 

Tix Picks meeting / pool: Newcastle, placepot

As mentioned I'll be having a crack at the jackpot later, but I want to see as many of the market 'vibes' as I can before entering that pool. Meanwhile, you'll get a feel for my thinking via a placepot play on the same Newcastle card.

Leg 1:  Grant Tuer is in bamboozling form just now and Caledonian Dream went on to my tracker in July. Since then, he's gone from the front twice in handicaps and been a little flat each time. My view is he probably needs a more patient ride, which he might get here; but without knowing that, it's a bit of a guess up. Ollie Stammers is again in the saddle. I'll be slightly frustrated if he is waited with and comes through to win, but I won't be surprised. B.

Interestingly, perhaps, Tuer also saddles the second favourite, Shielas Well, which former champion Silvestre de Sousa rides. She's been running on in each of her most recent three spins, all at a furlong shorter, and with SdS up top is expected to go well. A.

Top weight Himself is the other for early money but, honestly, I cannot see why. A flat enough effort over six here then a nothing performance first time in a handicap last time; and nothing in the trainer's MO to suggest that second time handicap is the time (1 from 31, 3 more placed, 27% PRB in the last two years). Just no fingerprints on this one at all for me.

More interesting is Force Of Honour, who showed a bit when upped from six to seven last time and who can show more now up another furlong. He's been green in a couple of his races and I actually quite like him, albeit he's the sort that could blow out completely. Put it this way: there are plenty here that have shown they're moderate, he has yet to unequivocally confirm as much! B.

Bobby Jones is another who might benefit from the longer trip and also gets B coverage in what is a messy race.

Leg 2: The Fanshawe team has been tearing it up recently and Philanthropist, a neck second at Yarmouth last time, looks A banker material. He's a cheap place lay to insure your bet if you're that way inclined; or you might choose a couple of C alternatives and hope to land A picks in the other five legs.

Leg 3: Seven runners. Yuk. Top of the market is shared between a horse in recent winning form and a handicap debutant from a big yard which has yet to get closer than nine lengths behind a race winner. Titainium is proven at the ten furlong trip and is versatile in terms of run style; up four pounds from a win last time, he might go in again.

But Sarmiento Power's debut effort behind Monkey Island was a strong piece of form and promised much more than his subsequent two performances. Now handicapped, off just 64 (he cost 200,000 guineas as a yearling), and up three furlongs in trip having been gelded since his last race, surely it's time to show what he's really made of.

I thought Solar Bentley had a hard enough race on heavy at Ffos Las 11 days ago and am opposing on that basis; he's up seven pounds for it in any case. Meanwhile, Archie and Hollie have a ridic 32.53% win rate from 83 starters when combining here in the past two years. That demands a second look at Perfectly Timed, who gets blinkers for the first time. That blinkers angle is less arousing, however, though a 50% PRB with such types over two years isn't bad either.

Although not making my placepot tickets, one I've had a tiny win bet on and might lob on C for the jackpot later is Parish Record. Trainer Donald Whillans is top of the PRB pops for three separate and largely unrelated categories, so this trainer switch from Jim Bolger (whose 2024 numbers are *not* good - see second image below) is really interesting.

Whillans' sole other trainer switch in the two year period was a 25/1 shot, which finished 3rd.

For the placepot I'm going with dual A's from the top of the market. Not exciting but they're both highly credible in different ways.

Leg 4: It is not normally the play to go from the front in big field 6f handicaps here, but Asimov may get a relatively soft time of it and, in any case, is from the Fanshawe barn. On the other side of the track, if Juicy is given a more patient ride, she might be in the mix; she's won or been close up in all four AW runs. Both on A.

Quintus Arrius has had 15 races and won two of them. On all-weather, he's had one race and he won it. Here. Over this trip. He led that day and is extremely well in on old form. Interesting. B.

There are three multiple 'Fast Finishers' in this field: Dark Kestrel, Bellagio Man and Faro De San Juan. The first named pair are both trained by Antony Brittain and could be fun plays at big prices but I'll let them beat me. Faro is another Dylan Cunha raider but his best form is at five furlongs so, even though David Egan is booked, I'll also reluctantly defer on him.

But one I can't completely overlook is Rough Diamond. Four of his five wins have been at 6f in big fields and he drops back to this trip from seven for his new trainer, Tristan Davidson. He's well weighted on old form and ran a good race last time before flattening out in the last furlong. A stiff six could be perfect. B.

Leg 5: This looks tricky. Barefoot Warrior won nicely at Thirsk last time but I'm not sure how strong the race was and he shoulders a seven pound penalty now: he's going on B. Stanage has had four goes for the Gosdens and is yet to win, though he has placed in £20k+ to the winner novice races the last twice. He's been gelded since last time and John & Thady are 11/33 after making the unkindest cut of all. I'll risk him as a sole A.

Also on B, I want the Crisford's Buon Viaggio, who was an eye-catching fourth at Chelmsford the other day. Simon & Ed are 24 from 101 with second time starters, 51 of them in the frame, in the past two years.

I'm lukewarm on a few of the others, notably Classic Encounter (switching from Charlie Appleby to George Boughey) and Lattaash, whose Southwell form is hard to peg and it can't be a positive that he was gelded in spite of winning. Both have shown competitive form so I might well be wrong.

Leg 6:  A full field as I write for the closing leg of the placepot and, actually, it's the first race I looked at in the sequence. That's because it's difficult and, if working through the six races chronologically, I might have found myself 'short stacked' (i.e. needing to go narrow from a bankroll perspective even though I know I want to be spread out from a play perspective). Assuming that made any sense, there's a negligible/debatable draw bias but a reasonable pace bias: in full field handicaps over 7f it's hard to win from the front. Other run styles have shared the honours pretty much and, when there's not a lot of obvious pace on - like this race on paper - I want a prominent/midfield runner rather than a hold up one.

 

The solid one, relatively at least, is Havanarama. Hugo Palmer legs up Callum Rodriguez and the former geegeez-sponsored rider is performing out of his skin this season. He's always been one of the best pace judges in the weighing room and this seven is a stern test of that particular skill. The jockey data for COURSE (Co) on Instant Expert, this image taken from the portrait mobile view (which shows the colour codes and the number of runs on which the colouring is based), reveals as much:

 

Indeed, of Callum's last 15 rides at Newcastle, he's been in the frame in 12 of them. If that hasn't given him the kiss of death, nothing will! Havanarama himself has been second on both Newcastle runs, smaller fields each time, and it might be that this bigger group allows him to finish to even greater effect. A.

Dylan Cunha sends Jackson Street all the way up from Newmarket and has booked Silvestre de Sousa to steer. This lad's AW form is a lot better than his turf efforts and he was doing all his best work late around Chelmsford when last seen. He can go close. A.

This is a tougher assignment for Flavour Maker than when dead heating at Kempton last time, but the straight track should also play to the finishing ability he displayed there. Still, I'm not quite so keen on him than the aforementioned pair. B.

Eminent Jewel is another who finishes off well, but her good recent form has been on turf. She might be able to translate it but I'm preferring to add the late runner Petra Celera to B. Although she might end up being too far back if they go steady in front, she's got some great fast finishes when the early tempo is rapid, as her Full Form (show sectionals, note the orange - fastest finisher in the race - "go faster stripes") attests.

 

*

No C tickets today, but a fair bit of B coverage. This is more of a, excuse me, sh*t or bust perm than I've shared recently but will hopefully be good fun at least.

It's £18.88 to 4p units, so £4.72 for pennies.

 

 

 

Good luck!

Matt

p.s. Chris will return for tomorrow's Tix Picks and will assume residency thereafter. I've enjoyed sharing a few thoughts on how I play as well as what I'm playing, and if you have any questions do drop them in the comments.

 

Play on Tix yourself here >>

 

 

 

Tix Picks, Monday 9th September 2024

/in /by

OK, guys, my first crack at the new Tix Picks feature, so bear with me!

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

 

 

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pots are at Wolverhampton, so let's head there...

Tix Picks meeting / pool: Wolverhampton, placepot

Leg 1: A 5-runner, Class 5 nursery kicks the meeting off with Greek Gift and Claim To Glory being the only two runners with any discernible form. It's probably an early cop out, but I'll just take both of these for now.

Leg 2: Another 5-runner affair for 2yr olds makes for a tough start to the meeting, but the obvious pick for me is Target Man. He was only beaten by a neck on debut last time out and now drops in class. Likely to try and win the race from the front, which is a good tactic here at Wolverhampton. He's going to be a banker pick for me and probably 90-odd% of players!

Leg 3: A couple more runners in this one and older horses with more 'form' to work with. Most of the field are down in class and Bowman brings steady consistent top-three form to the table. Starshiba has made the frame twice from four runs here and has won over course and distance. Mr Squires won here in June and is the pace angle in the race...

 

 

... and if allowed an easy lead, he could well have a top-2 finish here and I'll take him and Bowman as my two against the field. I know Starshiba is popular in the market, but hasn't won a race for nearly nine months and has only made the frame once during his current run of nine defeats.

Leg 4: A better looking contest to work with here with 10 runners contesting this 1m½f, Class 4 handicap with three horses standing out on the Instant Expert place stats...

 

 

...all three tend to run in mid-division or further forward which is a bonus, as hold-up horses tend to fare worst over this track/trip. Stalls 4 to 7 score best on the PRB...

 

 

...so Photon becomes a pick here, despite still being a maiden after 11 races. In fairness he has been a runner-up in three of his last five on the A/W and a similar effort here will do for us. Elsewhere, King of Scotia is the predicted front-runner and he has won two of his last four and has three wins and a runner-up finish from his last seven outings. Has lost his last two on unsuitably quick ground but won over a mile at Lingfield on his last A/W outing. I'd hope he could make the frame here too.

Leg 5: An interesting seven-runner contest featuring five course and distance winners. Roaring Ralph, Chalk Mountain and Surprise Picture all won LTO in the last week, but the latter is up in class. Consistent placer (3322 in his last four) Ultramarine drops in class and these four are the ones in my mind here on form. Three of these four also standout on Instant Expert...

 

 

...and Ultramarine might be dangerously weighted. If we then look at the pace/draw heat map...

 

 

...it's Roaring Ralph and Surprise Picture from the original quartet that seem best positioned. Roaring Ralph now has to be a pick, but I think I'd also take Chalk Mountain, Surprise Picture and Ultramarine.

Leg 6: Our final race is another 7f affair, but we've ten 3 yr olds to choose from with Grecian God our only LTO winner. Diligent Henry was a runner-up, but only Amroon and Blacklion have won any of their last seven outings. Instant Expert also steers us towards Grecian God and Amroon...

 

 

...but the former might be poorly drawn out widest of the ten runners...

 

 

Both of these runners have previously won over course and distance and I'm keeping both onside here, although I do prefer Amroon to Grecian God.

So to summarise, I've identified the following as runners of interest...

Leg 1: horses 1 & 2

Leg 2: horse 2

Leg 3: horses 1 & 6

Leg 4: horses 1 & 8

Leg 5: horses 1, 2, 4 & 6

Leg 6: horses 3 & 5

I'll now hold my hands up and admit that I've not yet got my head around the ABC methodology, I'll need to pick Matt's brains, but if you're up to speed already or just want to do a simple 64-line perm from my picks...

 

...Play on Tix yourself here >>

 

Cheers,
Chris

I'm 'on the road' tomorrow, so Matt will cover you for Tuesday's picks and I'll be back with you on Wednesday morning. The plan moving forwards is that I'll have the piece ready to go 'live' by around 10am on the day of the races, but I'm going to be in Indonesia for the next four weeks, so things might move around a little until I get home.

Tix Picks, 7th September 2024

/in /by

A losing day on Friday, stakes of £18 returning only £4.33 after a leg 2 bomb out left just one 'C' ticket (below) remaining. That's often the case, of course, and on we go.

 

Recap: What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here. You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

 

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a fat Scoop 6 pool for the ultra-brave and deep-pocketed, plus a £100,000 guaranteed placepot at Haydock.

 

 

 

Tix Picks meeting / pool: Kempton, placepot

Really, really competitive fare today and no obvious banker safe havens at the three big meetings. There's a £50,000 guaranteed pool at Kempton as well as the £100k guarantee at Haydock and I'll roll the dice on the Sunbury beaches.

Leg 1: A 2yo Group 3 to kick off, 6f and ten runners. Draw and pace can be big factors at Kempton, as this heat map implies. It could be tricky for Jouncy to get any sort of run from the outside box and I'm against him, though his form is solid if he does find a passage. More obvious is Adrian Keatley's Symbol Of Strength, 12lb clear on official ratings and surely odds on - rather than 7/4 - if trained by a more fashionable handler. That said, he's yet to run off turf but was an excellent length third in the G2 Gimcrack last time. He has a good draw and run style for this course and is a sole 'A'.

 

Leg 2: Seven runners - ugh - for this 1m4f Group 3 and Hamish, winner of the race in 2021, is another that is well clear on official ratings. He was second in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Ascot two back but then flopped a bit in a G2 at Newmarket last time. If he comes back close to his best - at age eight, that's not a given - he'll win here. A.

Kalpana is an improving three-year-old filly and a daughter of a very interesting sire in Study Of Man. She's been second and first in Listed contests, sandwiching a bronze medal in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot, and she gets a stone in age and sex allowances from the old boy Hamish. Her outside draw isn't ideal, even in a longer race and shorter field, but is mitigated by her tending to race handily in a field where not many do that (Cemhaan the only obvious other): she's on A as well in what is unimaginative play on my part.

Leg 3: The London Mile final, a 14-runner handicap at the - you guessed it - mile range. Very competitive field and again wide draws will have their work cut out as this image demonstrates:

 

The takeaway here is that if you have a double digit draw, it will be tough to get involved.

Kilt is favourite on his second handicap start and has no chinks in his armour bar experience. He is tractable in terms of run style, is drawn in stall 2, comes from the Haggas barn and the form of his two novice runs is working our brilliantly. Not so much the form of his handicap debut but we've since yet to see the only horse to finish ahead of him there and it was nearly three lengths-plus back to the rest. The first three favourites on this card could easily win.

But I want some B backup here. Valkyrian is a four-year-old that has already run 27 times - she's tough! Her last four AW spins have been 2122 and she keeps going up the handicap. It's only three days since her last run and, though I respect connections and she has a good draw/progressive profile, I'm a little wary off a very busy campaign and that recent run. She might defy both and she's reluctantly going on B, simply because four fancied runners are drawn 10, 11, 13 and 14. Vultar also goes on B, Clive Cox's runner having been 112 in three track spins and exiting trap six.

Whitcombe Rockstar is a third B despite a draw in 14. He's won over course and distance from stall 10 of 13 and stall 11 of 12, meaning he must have a turbo kick at the end of his races.

On C, I'll take those other wide lads, Talis Evolvere and Longlai as well as unnamed favourite.

Leg 4: Six go to post in a nursery handicap and coincidence players, perhaps especially Scottish ones, might enjoy the Kilt/Tilted Kilt double in consecutive races. William Knight's handicap debutant has a lot in his corner, including the masterful Neil Callan on top.

I'm not mad about Fearless Freddy's form - I might be wrong - and am swerving him; instead, I like the progressive Chesneys Charm: he needed every yard of the seven furlongs to get up on the line at Wolves last time and this extra eighth should be ideal. I also respect George Scott's handicap debut record and so Toy Soldier is on B tickets. I'll timidly lob the other trio on C.

Leg 5: A dozen runners for the London Sprint Series Final over 6f. Draw and run style are again huge considerations as you can see below:

An inside berth and/or a front-running style are important. Wide and waited with is tough, really tough. The pace horses Habooba and Radio Goo Goo both get automatic C slots at least, and I'm upgrading Habooba to B courtesy of his 9 from 10 place record in 6f all-weather races.

Favourite Heathcliff is more of a 7f horse (his distance win last time was on the more searching straight six at Newcastle) and could be done for speed in this contest; I prefer the chances of top weight Ferrous whose sand level is better than his grass one. If he can get a nice position from his inside stall he's a runner. A. Intervention was a close up sixth in this race last year having been messed about with at the start, and that's an effort that can be upgraded a touch. He's very consistent in AW sprints and has a good draw for an in-form team. B. Al Barez is another well drawn horse but he'll need the splits given his hold up style; in any case, he has a great gear change and completes the B group.

Leg 6: A trappy sextet closes with a 1m4f older horse handicap in which Enrico Caruso looks a worthy jolly for the Gosdens. The form of his handicap debut win last time has worked out well, with the second winning both times since. It was more than six further lengths back to the third, and the fouth has won a Newmarket handicap since. This longer trip should be fine, though Shoemark doesn't want to leave Enrico with too much ground to make up.

Assail was given that mission impossible closing assignment here two back, just missing the frame, and then got it done at Ascot last time over this trip. He is likely to be on the premises and is a second A play.

Wonder Legend is hard to quantify and, on balance, I'll sidestep him with two solid A's already. Harder to ignore is Night Breeze, a big improver this season and one that has been getting plenty of the Racing League prize money. He's been busy but may not be finished yet. B. Haku has some good runs at the track, usually just outside the places and that makes him a C play only along with unnamed favourite. I'll throw the filly Juana Ines on C, too: her trainer does very well on HC2 and she ran a cracker in an Ascot novice last backend and gets the tongue tie as well as the hood for the first time. Interesting.

 

*

A few chances taken, especially the banker jolly in the first. You could place lay it to insure your position if that's your thing.

 

 

 

5p units makes for a £17.60 spread this afternoon. Obviously, lots of risk, especially early, but that's the nature of the game. Good luck!

Matt

p.s. Sundays are a great day for placepots - and often for jackpots too - but it's a day off for Tix Picks. Back on Monday...

 

Play on Tix yourself here >>

 

 

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 07/09/24

/in /by

 

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

... on 30-day form...

...1-year form...

... and 1-year course form...

 

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.10 Ascot
  • 2.45 Ascot
  • 3.15 Kempton
  • 4.12 Stratford
  • 4.40 Haydock
  • 8.00 Wolverhampton

...and with all three listed Trainer/Jockey combos having a runner in the same race on our free list, I suppose it makes sense to see how Arkhalia Flynn, Red Hat Eagle and Orbaan might get on in the 4.40 Haydock, a 13-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed mile on good to soft ground...

Arkhalia Flynn won last time out and comes here on a hat-trick, having won three and placed once in his last four outings, whilst bottom weight Mr Swivell also won and he’s now two from his last four. As well as being in good nick, this pair are both 3yr olds, so they like Asteverdi and Rogue Encore get a 5lbs weight allowance here.

Aside from the two winners, Asteverdi is our only LTO placer, having finished third a fortnight ago. Most of the field have, however, won at least one of their last seven outings but Rogue Encore is a five-race maiden and Autumn Festival, Nap Hand and Leadenhall are currently on losing streaks of 10, 9 & 9 races respectively.

The top two in the weights, Orbaan and Red Hat Eagle both drop down a class today and Stockpyle is down two grades, but both Beylerbeyi and bottom-weight Mr Swivell take a step up in class.

All bar Nap Hand and the maiden Rogue Encore have already won at least once over today’s trip with Pearl Eye and Leadenhall both former course and distance winners. Arkhalia Flynn has also scored here at Haydock, landing a 7f handicap too months ago, as shown on Instant Expert, which thankfully has a fair smattering of green about it…

...with Arkhalia Flynn and Pearl Eye the standouts despite not having won (or run in one case) on good to soft ground. Asteverdi is sure to like the going, but I doubt Autumn Festival will and this wouldn't be his preferred trip, a fact which seemingly also applies to Orbaan. Leadenhall has the worst Class 4 record and he's only 1 from 6 at the trip too, so he might struggle here, even if his place stats look solid...

Red Hat Eagle is worryingly 14lbs higher than his last turf win and 8lbs higher than a subsequent A/W success at Chelmsford.

I'm going to use the above data to eliminate Orbaan from my enquiries before moving onto draw and pace, which will hopefull both help me narrow down this field. If truth be told, the draw data is fairly inconclusive, but those drawn more centrally seem to have the worst records for win and place...

...so that might not be the best news for Rogue Encore, Nap Hand, Autumn Festival or Beylerbeyl, whilst the pace stats from the same races suggest a front-runner might b the one to be on...

...and this is backed up by the pace/draw heat map...

...with low-drawn front runners the preferred option. We can see how this field have been ridden n their last few races as follows...

There's not much pace in the race, if truth be told and we might well get a falsely run race, which would play into the hands (hooves?) of the lower half of that pace chart, runners who are used to not having to put their effort in until later in the race.

Summary

It normally pays to crack on with thing here at Haydock, but with a field lacking much in the way of early pace, the race could be a falsely run affair and I think the hold-up types might prosper here.

Of those in the lower half of the pace chart, Arkhalia Flynn seems the obvious pick. He's in great form (1311), gets a weight allowance, had a line of green on Instant Expert and is drawn lowest of all. He was the 11/4 favourite with Bet365 on the early (3pm) show, but that might actually be a decent price.

Elsewhere and for similar reasons, I like Pearl Eye and with the bookies paying four places, 10/1 could be an attractive E/W proposition here.

Tix Picks, 6th September 2024

/in /by

I was right to forecast soft ground for Salisbury yesterday. In fact, not quite right enough, because the fixture was abandoned an hour and a half before racing was scheduled to go ahead. What a shame for their big day of the year. To Friday, but first...

 

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here. You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

 

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows*

 

*Did you know we had a dark mode? It's the button top right that looks like a sun. And the 'eye' icon next to it reveals or hides your account balance when logged in.

 

Tix Picks meeting / pool: Ascot, placepot

It's a £50,000 guaranteed pool at Ascot today and the going is currently soft. Ascot has a great page to check going here. There is the promise of more rain on its way so I'm working on the basis of heavy which, like yesterday, could be flawed logic but offers a potential edge. Let's hope, unlike yesterday, the meeting actually goes ahead.

Leg 1: A mile on the straight track for female amateurs is a test of judgement at the best of times. On rain softened ground there could be a furlong between first and last. Experienced rider and a hold up ride on a horse handling the conditions is optimal, and that means Shaladar. His form on soft in mile handicaps is 22722, he's a hold up type and Becky Smith, one of the most competent and experienced jockeys in the race, steers. The other of interest is last year's late, late show winner, Crystal Casque, who is five pounds lower this time around and acts well on soft. Two A's and we'll hope to survive the opener. I've backed Shaladar which is another impost that one will have to overcome!

Law Supreme will go on B.

Leg 2: Godolphin has won this decent maiden with the favourite in three of the last four years, and Fifth Column - trained by the Gosdens for Team Blue - is vying for market leadership. But current jolly and the one to be with, I think, is Isambard Brunel, representing Ballydoyle and the lads. The Aidan and Ryan TJ combo is 7/12 in the past fortnight and, though the going is a niggle for a son of Justify, he's my A single. I'll add a B in the form of Fifth Column, and a couple of C's - Seaplane and Calla Lagoon.

Leg 3: Non-runners have already reduced this race to a field of seven, rarely the friend of placepotters, and I'm banking on the odds-on jolly Ballet Slippers to go one better than last time. Dubawi offspring have a very good record on soft and I hope that's not the kiss of death here. She's the first foal out of the brilliant seven-time Group 1-winning mare Magical, and is a super-interesting cross with a Darley stallion for the Coolmore squad. They need her to get the win. I will take her as my sole pick in the race and lay her cheaply for a place to insure half of my placepot stake.

Leg 4: Hamad al Jehani has made a cracking start to his career in UK, hitting the frame at 38% and winning at 17%. He saddles favourite Diego Ventura, a winner on debut last time before switching to owners Wathnan Racing. Diego was trained by Gavin Cromwell and sent off 33/1 that day, dead heating with subsequent follow up winner and Listed second Magnum Force. That form has plenty of substance and, despite the six pound penalty, he ought to nearly win again, the turf having been yielding that first day.

Fort Augustus had a very troubled start on his debut at Newmarket last time behind another Wathnan runner, Defence Minister. That one scored again yesterday and this fellow looks the main danger (of those with form). He's a B pick, and I'm shoving three on C, all of them mildly interesting today and more than that for the future: Kosometsuke, Newlyn School and Gesundheit (bless you!).

Leg 5: Three absentees here have the field down to seven again, and I'm spreading out a bit further this time in a 0-90 classified stakes. Waleefy has been in great form on much faster ground but has never encountered anything with the word soft or heavy in it. Still, as a son of Night Of Thunder, whose progeny tend to handle deeper ground, he might be fine. His form gets him the A gig, but definitely not a solo spot.

Contrast that with James Tate's runner, United Approach, whose only two wins have been on soft and good to soft turf. He's got a bit to find on bare form but is expected to handle conditions better than some. And I'm adding a third string to my A bow with Look Back Smiling. This is a race where I feel there's a chance of getting a result, and Gemma Tutty's lad is a mudlark with strong handicap form.

I'm against Thunder Blue, who may struggle on the ground, and prefer Dark Thirty to bounce back somewhat. Lord Bertie won a soft ground novice by TWELVE lengths last season; a stable switch has seen three lacklustre spins on the all-weather so far but he, too, could bounce back on the sodden surface. Both on C, along with unnamed favourite.

Leg 6: Theoryofeverything is the place to start in this final leg, a mile handicap. David O'Meara trains and this one has loads of decent soft ground form. Favourite Awaal was second in the Lincoln on heavy last year but has run only once this season, 55 days ago; he looks one to be cautious with just now, though it won't surprise if he comes right back - I'll lob him on B. O'Meara also saddles Bennetot, and Oisin rides, so he'll be popular; but he's 0-from-3 on deep ground, thumped each time.

When I'm discounting most of the horses at the top of the market I get a bit nervous, and that appears to be what's happening here. I could make a small case for Classic, and slightly more of one for standing dish Tempus; but the one I quite like is Hafeet Alain. He's a mudlark and a four-time handicap winner at a mile including twice in this grade. The one niggle is his run style: forward goers don't normally prosper on this piste. He's going on B all the same. So, too, is Navagio, another with plenty of soggy sod form and he's five pounds lower than when third in this year's Lincoln (on soft).

*

For 4p stakes, then, and using the multipliers shown below, that's an £18 play across 14 tickets. You could make the same bet to pennies for £4.50, though I always recommend changing at least a few things up.

 

 

 

It could be an early bath in either of leg 1 or 3 today - or indeed leg 2, and a slightly later dip in the tub via legs 4, 5 or 6! - but risk is the friend of placepot players. If we get it wrong today, we can go again tomorrow. What we cannot do is bankroll self-harm by putting five picks in every leg.

 

Play on Tix yourself here >>

 

 

 

Matt

Racing Insights, Friday 06/09/24

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have generated just one qualifier for Friday...

but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.35 Haydock
  • 2.45 Bangor
  • 4.25 Down Royal
  • 7.30 Kempton
  • 8.00 Kempton
  • 9.00 Kempton

And if I'm honest, none of those races above really float my boat, so I'll switch my attention to the day's highest-rated race, the 4.45 Ascot, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on good ground...

It looks like a pretty open contest between ten runners who failed to even make the frame last time out, but Dear My Friend has won three of his last eight, Hafeet Alain is two from four, Bennetot and Theoryofeverything both won their penultimate race, Navagio is two from seven, Son of Man won on debut six starts ago and Inspiritus has two wins and fur runner-up finishes from his last eight.

Conversely Awaal, Tempus and Classic are winless in their most recent 7, 14 and 7 races respectively.

All ten ran in this grade last time out and Son of Man makes a yard debut for Jim Boyle, whilst receiving a 5lb weight allowance as the sole 3yo in the race, but he's one of four runners (along with Theoryofeverything, Classic and Inspiritus) who have yet to win over today's trip, whilst only Tempus has scored here at Ascot previously, landing a pair of course and distance handicaps in 2020 and 2022, but sadly they don't show up on the two-year overview on Instant Expert, which says he's 0 from 6 here in that period...

He's also 0/5 at Class 2 and 0/10 over a mile, which probably explains why he's 13lbs below his last win. Hafeet Alain is probably the best asuited by these conditions, but there are questions to be asked about Bennetot (class/trip), Theoryofeverything (class), Classic (class/trip) and Awaal (class), if I apply 'my red after 5+ runs' criteria/rule. With so much red around, we're going to ned to look at the place data to see if any have come close to winning...

...and this launches Awaal right into contention too. He's going to race from widest of all in stall 10 and whilst there's a marginal win bias for those drawn more centrally, he's in the right place to make the frame as the PB3 scores suggest stalls 4 and higher are the ideal starting points if we use a figure of 0.50 as our benchmark...

From a pace perspective, leaders and hold-up horses tend to fare best with those caught in the middle not doing as well...

...and if recent efforts are anything to go by, the pace is likley to be set by Hafeet Alain and Inspiritus...

...with Bennetot and Navagio the likely back markers.

Summary

There's no real standout pick for me here today having done my usual checks. I've got it in my head that the likes of Awaal and Bennetot would be the ones to beat today based on past endeavours, but if I'm putting horses forward based on the racecard/tools provided, then there's nothing there to back up my thoughts and we're not relying on gut feeling here.

What the above analysis does tell us is that Hafeet Alain has won two of his last four and was the pick on Instant Expert. he's also likely to set the tempo of the race which gives him a great chance of making the frame, so my tentative suggestion today is Hafeet Alain as an E/W option. He was a 10/1 shot at 3.50pm with Hills, but will probably find at least one rival too good for him.

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