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Tix Picks, Friday 11/10/24

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Friday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Chepstow, Kempton, Newmarket & York.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The big money is at Newmarket & York and we'll head to HQ and good to soft ground for the day's richest races, starting with...

Leg 1 @ 1.07, a 15-runner, Class 2, 2yo fillies stakes over 7f...

Head To Head, Luna Girl and Wilhelmina all finished as runner-up on debut last month, whilst Rockin The Boat and Wild Angel both have two third place finishes from their two starts. Mother Mara is the only other with a run behind her and although she was five lengths down as 4th of 6 at Haydock on debut, it was at this grade and on good to soft ground.

Of those who have raced before, I'm unsure about Luna Girl and Wilhelmina stepping up two classes, so I'll omit them, but I am going to take (3) Head To Head because her debut run was the most impressive of this field, she represents the formidable O'Brien/Moore combo and has these numbers behind her...

I'll also take (12) Rockin The Boat who is a half-sister to quite a few runners, has shaped well in both stars so far and also has some good stats to support her as a selection...

...whilst of the debutantes (you just know at least one will go well!), it's very hard to ignore the claims of the Godolphin entry (13) Verse of Love. It's Newmarket, it's Godolphin, the breeding is good and it's Appleby & Buick and again the numbers are incredible...

Leg 2 @ 1.47, an 11-runner, 2yo Group 3 contest over 5f...

Kullazain, Treasure Isle and Blue Zodiac all won last time out (UK races) and Midnight Thunder comes here seeking a hat-trick. Mr Lightside and Coto de Caza have both won twice already, but Treasure isle's Listed class success at the Curragh is the only Class 1 win amongst this field's fifteen successes to date, although The Strikin Viking has a pair of Group 2 runner-up finishes to his name, beaten by just half a length each time.

Elsewhere at Class 1, La Bellota was a Gr 2 runner-up beaten by just a neck last time out, Mr Lightside was 3rd of 15 in the Gr3 Molecomb beaten by less than a length in July, Coto de Caza was 3rd of 14 in a Listed race at Ayr three weeks ago and Grande Marques was 3rd of 13 in a Group 3 race at Ayr a day later.

From all this, I'd take (3) Midnight Thunder as the form horse, (5) The Strikin Viking for his Group 2 performances and (6) Treasure Isle for consistency at a bigger price.

Leg 3 @ 2.25, a 10-runner, 2yo Group 3 contest over 7f...

All ten have won at least one race, but none at Class 1, although the consistent Flight (2213 so far) was third of nine at Group 2 last time out, headed late on and will hopefully appreciate the drop back to 7f, whilst Miss Fascinator was only beaten by half a length as a runner-up behind the promising Tabiti too good in a Group 3 race Salisbury last month and she has already won here at newmarket, albeit on the July course.

Charlie Appleby & William Buick won this race last year with Dance Sequence and they team up again here with the 2 from 2 Magical Trail although this looks tougher for her after a pair of Class 4 Novice races. William Haggas' First Instinct is also two from two and she comes here off the back of a Class 2 Novice success on good to soft ground at haydock, so the going should be fine and it's a smaller step up in class, although she has only raced at 6f so far.

And my shortlist is completed by Cathedral and Ecstatic. Cathedral's breeding is impeccable and she showed a blistering change of pace in an easy win on debut. Hard to tell what she'll end up as, but plenty of promise from that first run, whilst Ecstatic is probably/possibly better than her 5th of 10 at Doncaster last time out might suggest. She blew the start and stumbled out of the gates. It took her a little while to get going and then had to play catch-up, but did get to within four lengths of the winner and was two lengths behind Flight.

Our pace/draw heat map suggests the front end is the place to be, advancing the claims of Flight, Magical Trail, Cathedral and Ecstatic...

...and if I'm going to omit one of those four, I'd leave Cathedral out. I'm not sure what she's ging to be and she's drawn higher than the others, so I'll go with (2) Ecstatic, (4) Flight & (5) Magical Trail here.

Leg 4 @ 3.00, an 11-runner, 3yo+ Group 2 contest over 7f...

Noble Dynasty was slowly away and finished last of eight in the Gr 2 Lennox Stakes last time out, but had won five of his previous six outings, including two over course and distance, so I'd not write him off just yet. Quinault comes here off the back of three successive Listed class wins. He's 4 from 5 here at HQ (2/3 on the Rowley) and prefers it softer than good.

Royal Scotsman won the Gr3 Diomed at Epsom back in June, making all in a fairly comfortable success and if showing no ill effects from not having raced since, could go really well here too. Witness Stand is 121 in his last three having won a Listed race at Newbury last month and bottom weight/sole filly Great Generation has four wins and a runner-up finish from her six starts to date, has won two Group 3 races already this year and receives weight all round (2 to 5lbs). All five of these show up really well on Instant Expert, as you'd expect...

...and these are the five that I'm going to choose from. Lower drawn runners go well here...

...as do front runners...

..so I'm taking (9) Witness Stand for ticking both boxes. (2) Noble Dynasty is my 'one to beat' here, so he's also in, leaving me with a one from three pick. I really liked Royal Scotsman's run LTO, but he's been away from the track and stall 11 isn't ideal for feeling your way in, the market isn't over keen on Great Generation, so I'll take the in-form front-running (4) Quinault.

Leg 5 @ 3.35, a 7-runner, 2yo Group 1 contest over 1m...

So seven run here and six have a decent chance in my opinion with six-race maiden Califonia Dreamer the exception. Anna Swan, Dreamy and Tabiti (mentioned earlier) are all 2 from 2, whilst Godolphin's Desert Flower is three from three and won a Group 2 contest last time out beating the re-opposing January by a length and a half in the process and her form and the strength of that last run put (4) Desert Flower straight on my ticket builder.

The three runners below her on the card have all also won at Class 1 with Dreamy landing a Group 3 last time out, January winning a Listed race two starts ago before bumping into Desert Flower LTO and the unbeaten Tabiti also a Group 3 winner last time out. Of this trio of Class 1 winners, January looks the weaker on form and also when you look at the pace data...

...so I'm with (4) Desert Flower, (5) Dreamy & (7) Tabiti for this one.

Leg 6 @ 4.10, a 15-runner, Class 2, 3yo handicap over 1m4f...

Grey Cuban won at Doncaster last time out and has won three of his last four and Mount Atlas is 131 from his last three starts having landed a Class 2 handicap at Ascot on his latest run, beating subsequent Melrose-winner Tabletalk by two lengths in the process. Brioini landed a soft ground handicap at Ascot on her last run and has made the frame in six of her eight starts (2 wins)

Kildare Legend was narrowly defeated as a runner-up at Pontefract but now seeks a hat-trick after wins at both Southwell and Doncaster, but he is up in class here. Due To Henry completes our list of LTO winners, having taken a Class 4 handicap by a neck at Newbury three weeks ago for a third win in his last six, whilst from a consistency perspective Blake has made the frame in 4 of 8 career starts and Goodwood Odyssey has done so 5 times from 7.

Despite an 11-week layoff, the manner of Mount Atlas's win last time out and the subsequent form of Tabletalk, I think that he might well be the one to beat here. Kildare Legend is hot right now and Brioni looks really progressive and this trio are rightly at the head of the market and if I was just trying to find the winner here, I'd most likely go with one of this trio.

Things don't always go to plan, of course and in a big field, there are always hard-luck stories and horses outrunning their odds so, I'll add persistent placer Goodwood Odyssey to my selections. If truth be told, this could be a cracker of a race, where you could select six runners and still not get in the first three home!

But hopefully one or more of (3) Goodwood Odyssey, (4) Mount Atlas, (5) Brioni & (7) Kildare Legend will!

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (3) Head To Head, (12) Rockin The Boat & (13) Verse of Love

Leg 2: (3) Midnight Thunder, (5) The Strikin Viking & (6) Treasure Isle

Leg 3: (2) Ecstatic, (4) Flight & (5) Magical Trail

Leg 4: (2) Noble Dynasty, (4) Quinault & (9) Witness Stand

Leg 5: (4) Desert Flower, (5) Dreamy & (7) Tabiti

Leg 6: (3) Goodwood Odyssey, (4) Mount Atlas, (5) Brioni & (7) Kildare Legend

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...



As ever, good luck, today looks fiercely tricky.
Chris

Tix Picks, Thursday 10/10/24

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Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Ayr, Bath, Chelmsford, Exeter & Southwell.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

...from which I'm heading to Bath for the biggest pot and heavy ground for six races, starting with...

Leg 1 @ 1.25, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 2m1f...

Al Sayah might have only been 8th of 13 here last time out, but that was over 1m6f at Class 2 and she had won her previous outing over this class, course and distance by some 8.5 lengths. Russian Rumour was a heavy ground runner-up at Ffos Las last time out and Made For You has made the frame in his last two on the Flat and his last six overall.

Calshot Spit's last nine runs have finished 222341211 (22211 on the Flat) and won here over course and distance on his last Flat outing. Grey Owl is 2313 over his last four and both Tigerten and Tarbat Ness come here off the back of runner-up finishes; the former having been just over three lengths behind Calshot Spit.

Calshot Spit has no previous heavy ground form, but was a runner-up on his sole effort on soft, whilst Russian Rumour, Tigerten and Tarbat Ness have all made the frame on heavy and all four catch the eye to a degree on Instant Expert...

... as does Grey Owl and possibly Al Sayah/Made For You.

I'm happy to take a chance on (5) Calshot Spit 'getting' the ground, as he ticks all the other boxes and if I take him, then I probably need to take (9) Tigerten as the latter is now better off at the weights and was only 3 lengths down last time out. And for a backup, I'm taking perennial placer (but non-winner) and bottom weight (10) Tarbat Ness to edge out the likes of Russian Rumour et al.

Leg 2 @ 2.00, an 8-runner, Class 4, 2yo novice stakes over 5f...

(7) Rory Rocket's runner-up defeat by a length and a quarter on debut sets the form standard here, although (4) Think Of A Name was also a runner-up on the second of his three outings. Debutant (1) Mini Mac comes from a yard with a decent record here at Bath...

..and in the lack of any real compelling data, I'll take these three here.

Leg 3 @ 2.35, an 8-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Firenze Rosa has been disappointingly well beaten in her last two races (the latest here over 5½f) on quicker ground since she won on soft ground at Brighton in July. Louis Treize has been there or thereabouts without winning of late, finishing 3233 in his last four whilst Sisters In The Sky was third of ten over this track/trip on heavy ground last time out, just nine days ago and if recent form was the only thing we looked at, it'd be hard to case a case for the rest of the field!

That said, if we extend recent to two years, we're still looking at the same trio of horses...

The draw stats suggest that horses can make the frame from anywhere, even if a low draw is more helpful for winners...

...and in a poor looking contest, I'm happy to side with the three highlighted runners (1) Sisters In The Sky, (2) Firenze Rosa & (4) Louis Treize

Leg 4 @ 3.10, a 9-runner, 3yo+ Listed race over 1m6f...

Entrancement and Loughville both won last time out, but are up two and three classes respectively, but both are clearly in good nick. Fairy Glen is 1132 in her last four, the 3yo Forest Fairy won the Listed Cheshire Oaks back in May before finding group races a little warm for her and the interesting one on the card is Nicky Henderson's Marie Rock who won nine and placed once from twenty NHF outings including 2 wins at Gr1, 2 at Gr2 and 2 at Listed class. She now makes just a second appearance on the Flat after finishing less than four lengths off the pace in the Group 3 Bronte Cup at York back in May.

Loughville and Entrancement are the mudlarks here...

...with the atter having won both heavy ground starts to date, including over this trip at Goodwood last time out. The pace stats for similar races suggest an average pace score of around 2.00 might be the way forward here, putting these runners in the spotlight...

...and on the above sets of data allied with form, I'm struggling to overlook Loughville and Entrancement. The issue here is that I'm also very interested in Forest Fairy based on the Cheshire Oaks, Fairy Glen who is best off at the weights and on form after an excellent run at Longchamp last time out and the fly in the ointment Marie's Rock. She's probably using this as a warm-up for her next hurdling campaign, but if she runs like she did at York recently, then she could could really upset the applecart.

I'm very aware of the possibilities of taking three from this five here and not finding a placer, so I'm going to fudge it and have them all ie (2) Entrancement, (5) Loughville, (6) Marie's Rock, (8) Forest Fairy & (9) Fairy Glen in a belts and braces approach.

Leg 5 @ 3.45, a 5-runner, Class 5, 2yo novice stakes over 1m2f...

Marbush was only beaten by a length and a half on debut in a Class 2 race, finished third next time out and then opened his account at the third time of asking when two lengths clear over a mile at Kempton last time out.

That run probably sets the standard here, but King Kernow was a two-length runner-up over a mile here at Bath four weeks ago, whilst Tap Dancer was third in the second division of the same race, having also finished third on her previous run (Class 2, soft ground) at Goodwood.

Only five of the original 8 runners are still down to race here and the trio above are the most likely to succeed based on what little we have to go on. I have to take (2) Marbush on his progressive form and I think that (8) Tap Dancer edges out King Kernow on consistency, her soft ground result and the 5lbs fillies allowance.

Leg 6 @ 4.20, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo handicap over 1m2f...

The obvious starting point here is top-weight Red Cloud, who has yet to finish outside of the first two home in all six handicap runs finishing 221221 and comes here off the back of a five length win at Lingfield. Harlington was third here over 1m3½f four weeks ago before finally getting off the mark (10th attempt) with a 1.5 length win over 1m1½f at Wolverhampton last time out.

I'd be surprised if this pair weren't the first two home today, although Make A Scene had finished 2233 in four races prior to a disappointing display at Wolverhampton last time out, where she failed to break cleanly from the stalls and didn't see the 1m4f trip out. She's not a good starter if truth be told, but hopefully first-time cheekpieces will help and she could be the main challenger to Red Cloud & Harlington based on recent form.

Again, we've no heavy ground runs to look back on, but Red Cloud was only beaten by half a length on his sole soft ground run two starts ago, headed late on over 1m3½f at Windsor, so that could well tick another box for him down in trip.

To be honest, most of this field are much of a muchness and I'm just going to go with my 'gut' and form and take the original duo of LTO winners, (1) Red Cloud & (5) Harlington.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (5) Calshot Spit, (9) Tigerten & (10) Tarbat Ness

Leg 2: (1) Mini Mac, (4) Think Of A Name & (7) Rory Rocket

Leg 3: (1) Sisters In The Sky, (2) Firenze Rosa & (4) Louis Treize

Leg 4: (2) Entrancement, (5) Loughville, (6) Marie's Rock, (8) Forest Fairy & (9) Fairy Glen

Leg 5: (2) Marbush & (8) Tap Dancer

Leg 6: (1) Red Cloud & (5) Harlington

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


As ever, Good Luck!
(I might need it. Based on current form; I think I'm headed for a Class 6 seller!)

Chris

Tix Picks, Wednesday 09/10/24

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Wednesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Kempton, Ludlow, Nottingham & Sedgefield.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

...and I fancy another crack at soft ground, so we're off to Nottingham for six races commencing with...

Leg 1 @ 1.45, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

Many A Year was a winner at Hamilton sixteen days ago, Bama Lama has been in the first three home in nine of her last eleven starts, winning twice and Diamondsinthesand has made the frame in seven of his last eleven, whilst Quanah is a three-time winner on soft ground and his jockey has been in good form himself of late...

We can add Apache Star to our calculations as he has also has gone well under similar conditions...

...and is now below his last winning mark. The pace is likely to be set by (2) Bama Lama...

..and it's entirely possible that she'll have things his own way, so she's in. (4) Many A Year is the form horse here, so he's in and I think I'll take (1) Apache Star over Diamondsinthesand based on Instant Expert.

Leg 2 @ 2.15, an 11-runner, Class 5, 2yo novice stakes over 6f...

Eleven run, two are on debut. Five have raced twice with (6) Double Rush's soft ground runner-up finish the pick of the results, whilst of the four making just their second start today, (2) Arctic Voyage's third pace on heavy ground looks the best first effort and he's a half-brother to former group 2 winner Speak In Colours who won nine races 6f and 7f.

In a race where only Arctic Voyage looks like being a front-runner, a repeat of (3) Carbine Harvester's prominent run at Kempton might make him the most notable challenger to the pair above.

Leg 3 @ 2.45, a 6-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6f...

Miss Alpilles won two starts ago and drops two classes here, the fast-finisher Pique has been the runner-up in each of her last four since winning at Leicester in May and was only beaten by a neck last time out at Yarmouth. Soft-ground winner Dancingwithmyself failed to complete a hat-trick last time out, but is three from six, although he is up in trip here. Divine Presence is 2134 in her last four and Seek And Destroy has a win and a runner-up finish from her last three.

You can make a case for all five of those, which brings us to top weight Plus Point, who herself has failed to make the frame in her last three after starting her handicap career with finishes of 11341. She was heavily beaten last time out and as the sole non-3yo in the race, she's 7lbs 'wrong' at the weights here, so she's off my list.

The pace/draw heat map leans towards (4) Dancingwithmyself, (6) Seek And Destroy & (5) Divine Presence...

...so I'll take these three at the obvious risk of Pique burning my fingers!

Leg 4 @ 3.15, an 8-runner, Class 2, 2yo novice stakes over 1m½f...

We've lost two runners here, so only eight are set to race with half of them making their debut! Of those with racecourse experience, Hot Dancer looks the obvious pick after finishing as runner-up in both outings so far, but he is up three classes here.

Elsewhere Royal Officer should have more to give than he has so far. His connections are amongst the shrewdest in the business and whilst spending money is no guarantee of success, this horse was the most expensive purchase at the Craven Breeze-Up sales, costing a cool at 1,000,000 Guineas.

Of the newcomers, Holborn is interesting. His yard are in good form, especially with Rossa Ryan in the saddle and the team have a good record with 2yo debutants on this track...

... so (4) Holborn, (5) Hot Dancer & (9) Royal Officer are my tentative trio of picks here.

Leg 5 @ 3.45, a 5-runner, Class 3, 2yo handicap over 1m2f...

The bare form guide says Lazieelunch might stroll home here after three wins on the bounce, but that has taken his mark from 56 to 79 (up 5lbs today) and all three wins were on the all-weather. He has failed to make the frame in three runs on turf, finishing last of 12 on debut, 7th of 9 and 7th of 8, so he's not quite the shoo-in here and the consistent (35323 in his last five) Chelsea Embankment might be the safer option for at least a place.

Manila Thriller hasn't been at her best in two big-money races recently but before those she was a runner-up in back to back Class 2 races (one on soft ground), beaten by a neck each time and she's down in class here, whilst Gentle Warrior took a while to get going last time out, but styed on well from the back to get within a length of the winner over a mile at Redcar. This, however, is tougher as he steps up three classes and I think I'll stick with (2) Chelsea Embankment & (3) Manila Thriller here.

Leg 6 @ 4.17, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m½f...

Top-weight Boy Douglas has been placed in half of his twelve starts to date, winning twice including once on heavy ground. A wide draw over an inadequate trip at Chester recently didn't show his true potential, as he'd finished 212203 in his previous six runs.

Lunario finished sixth at Yarmouth last time out, ending a good run of eight top-three (3 wins) finishes and he could be dangerous down in class today. Native Souvenir makes a handicap debut after a heavy ground win on debut was followed by a three length defeat on Polytrack. Pressure's On was a runner-up LTO and Climate Action has been the runner-up in three of her five starts to date.

Ardbraccan has been the bridesmaid in each of her last two and Mr Swivell was third in his last two and has placed in five of his last seven, winning twice. Desperate Dan has been in the frame in two of his last three and with Groovy Baby also in the frame in three of her five starts, you can make a case for several runners here to finish in the first three home.

All nine score well on Instant Expert, which doesn't really help us too much...

...but today's draw allied with the field's pace scores over their last few races does highlight some runners...

...and in a tricky affair to call, I'm inclined to take all three (3) Native Souvenir, (9) Mr Swivell & (11) Desperate Dan, along with (4) Pressure's On who ran really well as a soft ground runner-up last time out off an unchanged mark of 77 and with his form reading 335122 of marks of 75 to 77, I prefer him to Lunario for the finale.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Apache Star, (2) Bama Lama & (4) Many A Year

Leg 2: (2) Arctic Voyage, (3) Carbine Harvester & (6) Double Rush

Leg 3: (4) Dancingwithmyself, (5) Divine Presence & (6) Seek And Destroy

Leg 4: (4) Holborn, (5) Hot Dancer & (9) Royal Officer

Leg 5: (2) Chelsea Embankment & (3) Manila Thriller

Leg 6: (3) Native Souvenir, (4) Pressure's On, (9) Mr Swivell & (11) Desperate Dan

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck!

Chris

Tix Picks, Tuesday 08/10/24

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Tuesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Brighton, Huntingdon, Leicester & Southwell.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And with the biggest pot to be found at Southwell, we'll head there for our six races on standard tapeta...

Leg 1 @ 4.20, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Ifonlytheycudtalk was a winner a fortnight ago at Beverley and has been in the frame in four of his last six. Suanni and Glamorous Joy both won three starts ago with the former a runner-up last time out, whilst despite being a 12-race maiden, Marcus has made the frame in each of his last three starts and five of his last seven. Havechatma was a winner here over 6f last December and The Grey Lass is a former course and distance winner from four starts ago off just 2lbs higher.

Instant Expert also suggests that Suanni and Marcus could go well here and also puts Mr Funky Monkey into the picture...

whilst over a course and distance that suits those willing to get on with things...

...only Iftheycudtalk, Suanni, Northern Prince and Havchatma have an average pace score of 2.75 or higher...

...and I'll take three of those four, Northern Prince being the unlucky one and I'm still wary of Marcus based on the above.

(2) Havechatma, (3) Suanni, (6) Iftheycudtalk are my picks here.

Leg 2 @ 4.55, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ maiden over 5f...

Of those with racecourse experience, Vibrato and All Ways Glamorous seem better options than Bubbles Up and Kohana Girl.

Vibrato might need the run after 194 days off, but drops in class after being a runner-up here over a mile back in March, half a length behind Suspicion who has also yet to run again. The third placed horse that day, Devoirs Choice, has actually won his last three outings, all at Class 4 and off marks of 76, 78 & 80, so that's promising for Vibrato who also makes a yard debut for Jennie Candlish, who does well with new recruits...

All Ways Glamorous was only 4th of 7 on his A/W debut at Wolverhampton recently, but had finished as runner-up in three on the bounce over today's trip on good to soft, good and good to firm ground, so he's certainly adaptable.

Of the two debutants, I'm more drawn to Rebel Star, who is a half-sister to Angle Land who had 7 wins and 15 places from 49 runs over 5f, including a course and distance win here at Southwell.

Safety first here, I'll take all three : (1) All Ways Glamorous, (3) Vibrato & (6) Rebel Star

Leg 3 @ 5.30, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...

Kristal Klear is the klear (sorry!) pick on form having finished 121 in her last three outings. She was beaten by a head on good to soft ground at Haydock in between 7f tapeta wins here over course and distance and Wolverhampton last time out. She's up 5lbs for that latest 4 lengths success, but today's jockey takes those 5lbs off, so she's the one to beat for me.

Hardman was a disappointing 8th of 12 at Beverley last time out, but had won his previous two. Hostelry seems to be there or thereabouts without winning of late and this is a poorer race than she has been contesting as she drops in class, whilst 12-race maiden Jalaybee has made the frame in each of his last two starts. Back from Dubai is the sole course and distance winner, but doesn't show well on Instant Expert. Mind you, only Kristal Klear does!

She's also the likely front runner here in a race that seems to lack any real pace...

...so (1) Kristal Klear is a firm pick here. Matt (and others) braver than me would make her a banker here, but I'm prone to err on the side of caution and I'll also take (3) Hostelry & (5) Hardman here.

Leg 4 @ 6.00, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...

Amaysmont was a winner at Wolverhampton eight days ago, scoring for the third time in five starts since a pair of runner-up finishes in April and May, so he's clearly going well. Mykonos St John also won on that card at Wolverhampton last time out and is two from five, but lacks consistency. Of the others, only Rainbow Mirage made the frame on their last run. Kodebreaker has been placed in two of his last three and has two wins and those two places from his last six handicap outings and is also the only previous course and distance winner in the race, albeit from March 2023!

The top of the pace rating brings Cryptos Dream into play along with First Dynasty (winless in 12, though) and Amayretto who gets a 3lbs weight for age allowance and is down in weight despite only being beaten by 1.5 lengths over this course and distance last time out.

She's also on my six-runner Instant Expert shortlist...

I can't ignore the obvious claims of (1) Amaysmont and based on pace/IE, I'm also taking (4) First Dynasty & (8) Amayretto here

Leg 5 @ 6.30, a 6-runner, Class 3, 2yo novice stakes over 7f...

This looks like a 'straightforward two-horse race' between triple runner-up (6) Shah who benefits from a higher draw...

... and (1) Jonquil, the only previous winner in the race, having scored over this trip on debut at Sandown and with both of these runners dropping in class, I'm just taking (1) Jonquil & (6) Shah from this one and moving on to our finale...

Leg 6 @ 7.00, a 6-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 2m½f

And we end with another small field where Different Drum sets the standard on form having finished third here over 1m4f five weeks ago prior to an LTO win over today's trip on the tapeta at Newcastle three weeks ago. Grey Nyle was a runner-up beaten by just a head over that same Newcastle track/trip almost four weeks ago and has to be considered and this pair are both still 3 yr olds, so get a whopping 9lbs advantage over their rivals, from whom Scylla has also won over today's trip albeit on good to firm ground at Lingfield in late July.

There's not much to be gleaned from Instant Expert, pace or draw here, but Scylla's yard have a useful recent place record at this venue...

..so I'll add (1) Scylla to the previously highlighted (3) Different Drum & (6) Grey Nyle for leg 6.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Havechatma, (3) Suanni, (6) Iftheycudtalk & (10) Marcus

Leg 2: (1) All Ways Glamorous, (3) Vibrato & (6) Rebel Star

Leg 3: (1) Kristal Klear, (3) Hostelry & (5) Hardman

Leg 4: (1) Amaysmont, (4) First Dynasty & (8) Amayretto

Leg 5: (1) Jonquil & (6) Shah

Leg 6: (1) Scylla, (3) Different Drum & (6) Grey Nyle

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

As ever, good luck!

Chris

Tix Picks, Monday 07/10/24

/in /by

Monday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Pontefract, Stratford, Wolverhampton & Yarmouth.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And there's soft ground at Pontefract, so we'll head there for six races beginning with...

Leg 1 @ 1.17, an 11-runner, Class 4, 2yo handicap over 6f...

Top Juggler, Dark Rosa & Sir Palamedes all won last time out, Stirrup Cup has finished 12 in his last two and despite being a 5-race maiden, Georgecandoit has never been out of the first three home and drops two classes here, as does Stirrup Cup.

Dark Rosa has already won over course and distance and Top Juggler, Shazani, Stirrup Cup & Sir Palamedes have 6f wins under their belts, whilst Top Juggler, Stirrup Cup & Larchill Lass have all won on soft ground and on a track/trip where early pace is often key...

...the ones setting the tempo are likely to be that quartet above. Dark Rosa ticks plenty of boxes here, as does fast finisher Top Juggler and then it's a case of picking one from Stirrup Cup, Georgecandoit and Sir Palamedes for me. Two of that trio drop two classes here and of that pair, I think I prefer Stirrup Cup, so it's (1) Top Juggler, (4) Dark Rosa & (6) Stirrup Cup here.

Leg 2 @ 1.52, a 12-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

No LTO winners but Music Society has been runner-up twice on the bounce and Alafdhal three times. Yazaman failed to make the frame in his last two, but won his previous three and both Willolarupi & Mrs Trump both won three starts ago.

Most of the field have won over 5f already, Music Society has also won here at Ponty over 6f, whilst Alafdhal is a former course and distance winner and this pair are both on my Instant Expert watchlist, as well as being off significantly lower marks than past wins...

...so I'll take both of these along with Object, who wasn't far behind Alafdhal last time out, despite racing all alone on the "wrong" side at Catterick last time out, but as a front runner with a plun draw here, he could well take the race never mind make the frame!

(6) Music Society, (8) Object & (10) Alafdhal from this one.

Leg 3 @ 2.27, a 7-runner, Class 2, 2yo novice stakes over 1m2f...

Tequila Star, Sir Dinadan & Novelista all made the frame last time out and the latter is the only runner not stepping up in class. Sir Dinadan improved tremendously from his debut to then be a runner-up at Haydock and with further improvement expected, a low draw and these stats...

...(4) Sir Dinadan is probably the one to beat with (3) Novelista likely to push him hardest.

Leg 4 @ 3.02, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo handicap over 1m...

Epidavros is of immediate interest coming here off the back of two wins including one over a mile on soft ground. Sea The Dream has two wins (one on heavy) and two places from six this year, Good Morning Alex has won six of his last ten starts (5 from 8 over today's trip), whilst unexposed Retracement has a win and a place from his three outings, including a course and distance win here back in July and I think these are the four I'm keenest on.

I don't actually think that there's much between them overall, but Good Morning Alex's last two runs make him vulnerable on form. That said, he's the front-runner in this race...

...and that clearly puts him back in the mix, so I'm going to fudge it here and take all four! (1) Sea The Dream, (2) Retracement, (3) Good Morning Alex & (5) Epidavros.

Leg 5 @ 3.37, a 9-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 2m2f...

Justus returns from a 163 day break to see if he can complete a hat-trick after winning three and being a runner-up in one of his last five starts. He own here over course and distance on heavy ground three starts ago and is only 5lbs higher here and drops in class. He has a real chance of making the frame or better again today if he's not to rusty after his break, but I suspect the ones to be on here here might be Surrey Force and Cinnodin.

Neither of this pair are prolific winners, but are steady solid consistent types, like you need at this type of trip/going. Surrey Force is the sole 3yo in the race and for that, he'll get a more than useful 10lbs allowance. He ran really well from a car park drawn to finish third at Chester last time out and won't have to run that far/wide today!

Cinnodin is only 1lb higher than when finishing third in this race last year, was a good second of thirteen over 2m at Kempton last time out, now drops in class and is ridden by Rossa Ryan who likes it here at Ponty...

The main danger in taking the above three is, I feel, that Justus might well need the run after over five months off the track and the 5yo mare Yorkindness might well be the one who benefits from that.

She's a three-time winner (all wins here) from five starts at 2m1f and has made the frame in three of her last five at 2m2f, whilst her record here at Ponty reads 11153. She has won on soft ground before, she won the last time Jason Hart rode her and she drops three classes today, so I think she might just be a slightly safer pick today with Justus one to watch next time out, perhaps but I'm siding with (1) Cinnodin, (3) Yorkindness and (9) Surrey Force today.

Leg 6 @ 4.12, a 9-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 1m...

Bottom weight Style of Life is the sole LTO winner in the field and comes here with three wins and two runner-up finishes from her last eight outings. Urban Sprawl was a runner-up at Ayr six days ago, beaten by just a head. He runs off the same mark here and with no disrespect intended, a pro jockey might get a bit more from him in the finish today, as might Poets Dawn who is reunited with David Allan today who has ridden this veteran to six of his ten career wins.

He didn't run or get ridden badly last time out, though and was an undisgraced sixth of seventeen at York and having won over 1m1f at Carlisle on his previous outing, looks one to consider here again. Walsingham is also interesting, despite being a nine-race maiden.

He had been knocking on the door, finishing 332 in his last three races in Ireland before moving to David O'Meara's yard. He probably needed the run last time out on yard debut, not having raced for 398 days, but went well for much of the race, only fading badly late on and he should come on for that effort.

These four are my shortlist here and they head the four-race pace ratings...

Walsingham is probably the weaker of the four, based on past efforts and although the O'Meara/Tudhope combo is generally to be feared, the yard's record with handicap debutants over the last year doesn't really stack up with the yard's overall prowess

... I'll go with (1) Urban Sprawl, (4) Poets Dawn & (9) Style of Life here although Walsingham might well spoil the party!

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Top Juggler, (4) Dark Rosa & (6) Stirrup Cup

Leg 2: (6) Music Society, (8) Object & (10) Alafdhal

Leg 3: (3) Novelista & (4) Sir Dinadan

Leg 4:(1) Sea The Dream, (2) Retracement, (3) Good Morning Alex & (5) Epidavros

Leg 5: (1) Cinnodin, (3) Yorkindness & (9) Surrey Force

Leg 6: (1) Urban Sprawl, (4) Poets Dawn & (9) Style of Life

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!

Chris

 

Tix Picks, Thursday 03/10/24

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Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Chelmsford, Newcastle, Salisbury, Southwell & Warwick.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

*

The biggest pot is at Chelmsford, where the polytrack is standard to slow for our six races which kick off with...

Leg 1 : 5.00 Chelmsford, a 6-runner, Class 2, 2yo novice stakes over 1m...

Not a great deal to work with here, but Biniorella Bay has ran creditably in defeat with two fourth place finishes at Group 3 since winning at Newmarket in June. She sets the standard here and with her yard in good form and with a decent record at this venue, she'd be the one to beat for me with the main danger coming from Mythical Bird who finished 3rd of 13 at Kempton last time out.

Neoma has a pair of runner-up finishes to her name, but those races didn't seem as strong as the Kempton race above, whilst the unknown quantity here is the Roger Varian-trained Protest, who might end up being the one most likely to upset the applecart

(1) Biniorella Bay, (2) Mythical Bird & (6) Protest

Leg 2 : 5.30 Chelmsford, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 2m...

Grand Duchess Olga won relatively comfortably over this trip at Kempton in June and was then third upped in class over the same track/trip next/last time out. She's had a rest since mid-July and now drops back in class and should go well. Pfingstberg had finished 331231 in his six runs this year before a disappointing effort at Beverley (7th of 8) last time out. He, too, has had a break and if returning to his previous good form, has an excellent chance here.

Dereham has been getting closer to winning recently, finishing third in each of his last two starts and only went down by a length and a half at Pontefract a fortnight ago. Easter Icon did win last time out, but that was over hurdles and he hasn't run well on level ground since winning at Wolverhampton over 1m6f back in February. Simiyann and Taxiing are both right out of form at the moment but bottom weight Veer (9lb 3yo weight allowance) was a runner-up in back to back 1m6f handicaps at Southwell and Nottingham in July/August prior to struggling when upped in trip to 2m at Newcastle recently.

And after looking at both Instant Expert and the top of the pace chart...

...I'm going with (1) Pfingstberg and (3) Grand Duchess Olga along with (5) Dereham who looks on the verge of landing a race soon.

Leg 3 : 6.00 Chelmsford, an 11-runner, Class 5, 2yo nursery over 7f...

Telford won over course and distance on handicap debut last time out, Matharu has finished 212 in his last three starts and has a stack of trainer/jockey stats to support his claims...

The Feminine Urge was a winner two starts ago and Rotation won three back and that's pretty much it from a form perspective, although Brandywine Falls has run better than two fourth places on the bounce might suggest, especially last time out when staying on strongly over 6f at Redcar. The line came too quickly for him that day and the step up to 7f here might be his shot at getting off the mark.

We'd now normally look for speedy types over 7f here at Chelmsford, but with no obvious front-runner in the pack...

...I'll refer back to my notes above and take (8) Matharu and (11) Telford on form with the promise/prospect of  more to come from (7) Brandywine Falls over this trip.

Leg 4 : 6.30 Chelmsford, a 13-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ maiden over 7f...

A modest looking contest with only really Dancing Magic looking like he might win a race soon, even if he is a 16-race maiden. He was a runner-up at Chester four starts ago and again here over a mile last time out, beaten by just a length and a quarter and that run sets the standard here, I feel. He was only headed inside the final furlong by the 92-rated 4/11 fav and the drop in trip should help here.

Next best is probably/possibly Stanage who has made the frame three times from his five starts, but could only finish 6th of 10 on his A/W debut last time out. That said, he has been rated at 81 by the assessors, so they might have seen something in him and he'll wear blinkers for the first time today.

As for a third pick here, the field seems much of a muchness, but the market seems to suggest the filly Jumeirah Sea might be the one to pose the biggest threat. She improved upon her debut effort when beaten by 3.5 lengths at Kempton four weeks ago and a drop in both trip and class could see her get closer today.

(1) Dancing Magic, (5) Stanage & (13) Jumeirah Sea

Leg 5 : 7.00 Chelmsford, a 13-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

On form, you have to start with the three LTO winners; Pinball Wizard scored over this trip at Wolverhampton ten days ago and is 3 from 4 on standard to slow polytrack. Nammos won here over course and distance a month ago on her second yard debut for Jane Chapple-Hyam and Desert Dream comes here seeking a hat-trick after two wins over today's trip at Catterick. He might well be 10yrs old now, but he has been in the first three home in four of his last five.

I did, however, have doubts about all three here from a pace perspective as none tend to race from the front, which is often the key to success over shorter trips here at Chelmsford, but closer inspection of the whole field suggests a falsely run race anyway, which would suit horses who don't tend to lead...

Guiteau, Super Hit and Solara might well make a break for it early on, but none of them are running particularly well right now and I suspect they'd be reined it and beaten as they have in their recent outings, so I'm sticking with the form guide and taking (2) Pinball Dream, (8) Nammos and (12) Desert Dream here.

Leg 6 : 7.30 Chelmsford, a 16-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ selling handicap over 1m2f...

Clear Justice looks the pick on seasonal form, having won twice at Brighton over 1m and 1m2f in June/July and was only beaten by a head there over 1m2f last time out, some 4.5 lengths clear of the third placed horse. Milvus would be of interest if turned back out just two days after racing at Bath, where the heavy ground didn't seem to suit him. Prior to that run, he had finished third in back to back races at Windsor over 1m and 1m2f on quicker ground and he also finished third on his last standard to slow polytrack run.

The Instant Expert picture looks pretty bleak, but does throw Semser's name into the ring...

...whilst the likes of Hurtle & Juan Cool Dude enter the equation based on their low draw and early pace...

Sadly neither of that pair are in great form, although Hurtle was a runner-up three starts ago, but I'm going to overlook him and take (2) Semser, (4) Clear Justice and also (12) Milvus, who might well contest the lead here.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Biniorella Bay, (2) Mythical Bird & (6) Protest

Leg 2: (1) Pfingstberg, (3) Grand Duchess Olga & (5) Dereham

Leg 3: (7) Brandywine Falls, (8) Matharu & (11) Telford

Leg 4: (1) Dancing Magic, (5) Stanage & (13) Jumeirah Sea

Leg 5:(2) Pinball Dream, (8) Nammos & (12) Desert Dream

Leg 6: (2) Semser, (4) Clear Justice & (12) Milvus

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, as always,
Chris

PS A reminder that I'm making my way back from Indonesia via Singapore from Friday morning onwards, so no column from me for Friday or Saturday's racing, I'm afraid. We don't do Sunday placepots, so after this piece, I'm not back with you until Monday 7th October. Some of you might be glad of the break!

 

Tix Picks, Wednesday 02/10/24

/in /by

Wednesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Catterick, Kempton, Musselburgh & Nottingham.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pot is at Nottingham, where the going is said to be heavy for our six races which kick off with...

Leg 1 : 2.00 Nottingham, a 4-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 1m½f...

Jowddah has been a runner-up on both starts so far and possibly bumped into a decent sort last time out in the shape of Sandtrap. She's down two classes here in a weaker-looking field and she's my most likely winner and backed up by some impressive trainer place stats...

That said, 2yo maidens don't always go to plan and Tattycoram showed signs of promise/ability on her Ascot debut four weeks ago on soft ground and would be the main danger here, I'd have thought.

Leg 2 : 2.35 Nottingham, an 8-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 5f...

Eight run here, but the bookies think it's a three-horse race. They're not always right, but they probably are here. Veblen Good looks the one to beat based on his soft ground runner-up finish on debut and Karl Burke's horses make the frame more often than not on their second start.

After that it looks like a two-way battle between Nad Alshiba Snow and Think Of A Name for the runner-up spot and that's where bottom weight Nad Alshiba Snow was last time out for the second time in five outings. She has already raced at Group 3 and was also beaten by less than three lengths at Class 2, so should be in the mix once again.

Think Of A Name didn't seem suited by the Tapeta at Newcastle last time out, but ran enough to finish second on his previous (and only second) run at Newbury in July and should appreciate a return to turf and also a drop in trip. Safety first approach here, I'll take all three!

Leg 3 : 3.10 Nottingham, a 6-runner, Class 2, 2yo handicap over 6f...

Another trappy little contest here with only Lilly's Bet of the six looking like they might be out of their depth. Stirrup Cup sets the standard on recent results, having won a soft ground Class 5 Nursery at Carlisle, before a Class 2 runner-up finish at Ayr last time out and he's the only runner here not stepping up at least two classes.

Shazani was only denied by a short head in an other Class 2 heavy ground nursery at Hamilton two starts ago, attwepting to make all and getting caught on the line and the winner that day has won again since. Blewburton won on soft ground on his debut at Leicester in late-April before a couple of third place finishes on ground eventually too quick for him. He didn't stay 7f on his handicap debut last time out, but a drop in trio and a return to much softer ground could be the key here.

The going might not suit Rare Change here, as all seven career efforts have come on good or quicker ground and after a couple of promising third placed finishes on his first two handicap starts, seems to be regressing, whilst it's a similar situation for the going for Eighteencaratgold who hasn't managed to make the frame in four outings to date.

Instant Expert says to focus on the top half of the card...

...which allies with my own thoughts above, so again I'll go belt and braces with Shazani, Blewburton & Stirrup Cup here.

Leg 4 : 3.45 Nottingham, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

Four Adaay won LTO on soft ground and has made the frame in four of her last seven, whilst Northern Spirit comes her on a three-race run reading 211, After going down by a neck at Newcastle, he has won at Southwell and was impressive landing an 18-runner handicap at York last time out. Fantasy Master completes a trio of LTO winners, coming here off the back of winning a 14-runner handicap at Doncaster, but he is up in trip today. Elsewhere, The Ridler was a good fifth in the Bronze Cup at Ayr last time out and had been placed in three of his previous four starts, Hierarchy has made the frame in his last two, Music Society has been the runner-up in each of his last two whilst bottom weight So Grateful has finished 323 in his last three, so plenty look like being in decent nick.

As with the previous race, the top of the card seem to tick more Instant Expert boxes than their rivals...

..and I'm definitely keen on the first two, Northern Spirit and Fantasy Master. As intimated above, you can then make a case for several of the remainder, with that excellent run at Ayr in my mind, I've a marginal preference for The Ridler, but I'm concerned that Four Adaay might upset my plans!

Leg 5 : 4.20 Nottingham, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6f...

Another tricky contest with several holding claims including It's All About You who is 242311 in his last six outings. He won't mind the heavy ground, having won on similar at Ffos Las over 2m last time out, so we shouldn't have any stamina concerns either.

Expressionless is 12712 in his last five, although he's not as proven on softer ground as the previous runner, he has won over course and distance. Clever Relation was third two starts ago, beaten by less than a length over today's trip and was the winner of a Class 3 seller last time out and my form shortlist also includes Knight Templar. he's the sole 3yo in the race, so gets a very useful 7lbs allowance and he comes here on a run reading 2211 from his last four on Turf, which has a soft ground win amongst it. He's 2 from 2 since moving from Sir Mark Prescott's yard and will be in the mix here, I'm sure.

Instant Expert throws Alpine Stroll's name into the hat, as he'll not mind the ground either...

When I initially looked at the race on Tuesday evening, the two I wanted to be with were It's All About You and Expressionless and now having looked closer at the recent form etc, I think Knights Templar might even beat the pair of them with the 7lbs allowance and the upturn in fortune from a change of yard. His new handler has a decent record of getting LTO winners back in the frame, albeit off a small sample size...

...Knights Templar gets chosen here too.

Leg 6 : 4.55 Nottingham, an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...

And we end with another 8-runner contest that the bookies and I both agree might well be a three-horse race. Elladonna is two from three and three from six. She is admittedly unproven/untried on soft (or worse) ground, but has won over course and distance and is in great form, as is Prometeo who comes here seeking a hat-trick after wins at Kempton and Doncaster over similar trips. Again, he hasn't raced on anything softer than good to soft, but was a runner-up beaten by just a neck on his sole run under that going condition. He's the highest-rated runner in the race, but as a 3yo gets a 4lbs allowance here.

Amancio is the other 3yo in the contest, so also gets that 4lbs allowance and although he doesn't win as often as his connections/followers would like (just 1 from 16 so far), he has 10 top-three finishes from his last 14 outings, did win on soft ground at Haydock in April and has finished 2242 in his last four, going down by just half a length on soft ground last time out. Elsewhere, we should mention Ardabraccan who won here on soft ground back in April and had three runner-up finishes from her last five runs (25722) and possibly Giselles Defence, who has two wins and two silvers from his last five, was a soft ground winner at Pontefract in May and shows up pretty well on Instant Expert...

Giselles Defence also throws another spanner into the works by being one of those likely to race furthest forwards...

I was going with both Elladonna and Prometeo, but neither are proven on the going and I prefer Elladonna of those two. I'm still going with Amancio who ticks form, Instant Expert and pace boxes and I think I'm going to take a chance on Giselle's Defence at the expense of Prometeo and hope that call doesn't bite me on the backside later!

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Jowddah & (4) Tattycoram

Leg 2: (6) Think of A Name, (7) Veblen Good & (8) Nad Alshiba Snow

Leg 3: (1) Shazani, (2) Blewburton & (3) Stirrup Cup

Leg 4: (1) Northern Spirit, (2) Fantasy Master & (5) The Ridler

Leg 5: (2) It's All About You, (3) Expressionless & (9) Knights Templar

Leg 6: (1) Elladonna, (3) Giselle's Defence & (7) Amancio

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, as always,
Chris

PS A quick heads-up, I'm making my way back from Indonesia via Singapore from Friday morning onwards, so no column from me for Friday or Saturday's racing, I'm afraid. We don't do Sunday placepots, so after tomorrow's piece (Thursday), I'm not back with you until Monday 7th October.

Tix Picks, Tuesday 01/10/24

/in /by

Tuesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Ayr, Bath, Newcastle & Sedgefield.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And we're off to Scotland and some good ground for our six races today, starting with...

Leg 1 : 1.40 Ayr, a 9-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...

None of these come here in great form, but Yaaser and Gracious Leader did both win their penultimate races with the latter also third last time out. Both drop in class here and the fast-finisher Gracious Leader wears a first-time tongue tie on his debut for George Boughey, whose horses are running well right now. His horses also fare pretty well with 3lb claimer Tommie Jakes in the saddle and George has a good record with horses making their yard debut after a move...

Yaaser won here over course and distance on his penultimate run (the second run of his three races in three days here last month!), whilst Tele Red won this race last year off a mark a pound higher than today. He won six races back and has actually been running better than recent results might suggest. Elsewhere there's very little form to go off, although Detective did win four starts ago and Urban Sprawl has some useful jockey and trainer/jockey stats behind him for his run off a dangerous career-low mark...

Instant Expert also points to (2) Yaaser and (5) Tele Red...

...so I'll take both of them along with the afore-mentioned in-form yard debutant (7) Gracious Leader

Leg 2 : 2.15 Ayr, a 4-runner, Class 5, 2yo handicap over 6f...

Despite being 0 from 4, Weissmuller is the obvious pick here. He has been in the first three home on two of his three UK starts and was 4th of 27 in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes at Ascot and is rated as highly as 92 by the assessor. However, third place won't be good enough for us here today, so I'll also take Blue Pinatubo as a backup. He showed good early pace on debut at Goodwood back in July and although he faded late on, this is an easier task down three classes.

Leg 3 : 2.50 Ayr, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...

A really open race here with Soowaih of immediate interest running off the same mark as when only denied by a neck at Hamilton eight days ago having been caught very late on. The drop back in trip should help him here too. Top weight Pol Roger is a former course and distance winner and although he was only 7th of 11 here over track/trip last time out, that was his first time that he had failed to make the frame after two wins, four runner-up finishes and a third place in seven runs and his C&D form reads 112227.

Spirit of Acklam also drops two classes here after a disappointing handicap debut at Newbury when last home of 13, but this 3yo had won his two previous outings, so it's not beyond the realms of possibilities that he'll resume where he left off at Ripon back in April when winning by three lengths over today's trip, whilst another who has been running well is Young Fire who is showing little sign of slowing down at the age of nine. He wasn't at this best on soft ground at Doncaster last time out, but won a 17-runner handicap at York on his previous run for a second win in four starts and has seven top-three finishes from his last ten outings.

Pol Roger and Young Fire catch the eye from Instant Expert...

...and with (1) Pol Roger also likely to set the pace from stall 1, I have to take him here...

I also want to take (5) Soowaih based on that last run and I've a marginal preference for (4) Young Fire over Spirit of Acklam, There's probably not much in it, but Young Fire will probably offer more value in the markets.

Leg 4 : 3.25 Ayr, a 6-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 7½f...

Wow, only six run but it looks super competitive. Jenni won over course and distance ten days ago just a week after being a runner-up at Musselburgh. She's only up 3lbs here, so remains of interest. Danzan ran a really good race to finish third of twenty-seven in the Bronze Cup here eleven days ago and he now drops two classes. Redarna won this race in both 2020 and 2021, Abduction is a 3-time course and distance winner and Red Mirage won five starts ago. Clasina is the only one yet to win a race and now she steps up in class, so I'd rule her out now.

I will take (4) Danzan and (5) Jenni on their recent runs and it's really a toss-up between the other three with (3) Red Mirage probably edging it on form.

Leg 5 : 4.00 Ayr, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7½f...

In racecard order, (1) Novak, (2) Sir Garfield and (5) Alpine Sierra struck me as ones who might go well here, especially Sir Garfield whose last six handicap runs have seen him finish 122282 and he runs off the same mark as his C&D runner-up finish last time out and it is he and Alpine Sierra who make most sense here from an Instant Expert point of view...

Pace is often the key here over this track/trip...

...but in the absence of any real proven front-runners, I'm hoping that class will count, so I'm sticking to my original shortlist of (1) Novak, (2) Sir Garfield & (5) Alpine Sierra.

Leg 6 : 4.35 Ayr, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

You could probably make a case for five or six of these. The 10yr old veteran Muscika has been a runner-up in each of his last two starts and Act Of Violence was also a runner-up a fortnight ago. Jonny Concrete has made the frame in four of his last seven and was only beaten by three lengths in the Bronze Cup here and now drops two classes. Rousing Encore isn't in the best of form right now, but has dropped to a dangerously low mark of 78 having last won off a mark of 85, whilst Moyola has two wins and three third placed finishes from his last seven runs and he was only 3.5 lengths off the winner in the Bronze Cup too, despite coming off a 10-week layoff. He's down in class and should improve for the run.

Instant Expert backs up the competitiveness of this race...

...whilst recent pace scores only rule Moyola out of the reckoning from my original shortlist...

I think I need to be with three of the top four of that graphic and I think it's going to be (3) Muscika, (4) Jonny Concrete & (6) Act of Violence ahead of the possibly unlucky Rousing Encore for the finale.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Yaaser, (5) Tele Red & (7) Gracious Leader

Leg 2: (1) Blue Pinatubo & (4) Weissmuller

Leg 3: (1) Pol Roger, (4) Young Fire & (5) Soowaih

Leg 4: (3) Red Mirage, (4) Danzan & (5) Jenni

Leg 5: (1) Novak, (2) Sir Garfield & (5) Alpine Sierra

Leg 6: (3) Muscika, (4) Jonny Concrete & (6) Act of Violence

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Monday 30/09/24

/in /by

Monday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Hamilton, Windsor & Wolverhampton.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

So let's head for Wolverhampton for a crack at six races on standard tapeta...

Leg 1 : 4.15 Wolverhampton, an 11-runner, Class 6, 2yo nursery over 5f...

Startling was a revelation in a first time hood last time out, winning here over course and distance nine days ago and needless to say the hood is in place once again. Deal Maker is the only other runner in the field to have won a race, as she scored over 5f at Southwell on debut. Pure Liberty was third behind Startling last time, beaten by a length and three quarters and should get closer now she's 5lbs better off. Top weight Dubai Magic drops two classes here for a handicap debut and also takes a drop in trip. Her yard does well here at Wolverhampton and jockey Clifford Lee has had a great year riding for this stable...

and I think I'll take (1) Dubai Magic, (4) Startling & (9) Pure Liberty here.

Leg 2 : 4.50 Wolverhampton, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ novice stakes over 5f...

My initial shortlist here was All Ways Glamorous, Glowchester, Maid In Chelsea and Mockirr. All Ways Glamorous has been knocking on the door of late, finishing as runner-up in each of his last three with ever decreasing margins of defeat and today could well be the day. Glowchester has also got closer to winning in each of last three runs, finishing 432 and also only went down by a neck last time out, so these two make the ticket.

Of the other three runners to have raced so far, Maid In Chelsea and Mockirr have shown more than Gigastar. Of those two, the former has been off the track for almost four months, whilst Mockirr's yard have a good record at Wolverhampton and also do well with runners on their second outing...

...so I'm going with (1) All Ways Glamorous, (2) Mockirr & (5) Glowchester here.

Leg 3 : 5.25 Wolverhampton, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

The 3yo filly Shamardia has been a winner and a runner-up (half a length down) in her last two starts and she's clearly the horse in form here, although course winner Coconut Bay scored at Catterick three starts ago too. Araifjan, Coast and Neptune Legend have all won over course and distance, but haven't really produced anything in their last three or four outings and to be honest, only four of the field have shown any consistency at all over the last couple of years on the A/W...

(3) Shamardia and (4) Coconut Bay are the more obvious picks for me here and I think I'll also go with course and distance winner (5) Araifjan on his second run after a wind op.

Leg 4 : 6.00 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m½f...

Not the best race you'll ever see, but it certainly looks open/competitive with cases to be made for most of the field. War Chant, Hartswood and Cavalry Call all won last time out, which boosts their claims. Local Bay has won four of his last seven, Winterfair has been placed third in four of his last six whilst bottom weight Between Me And U has a win and a runner-up finish from his last two.

From a win perspective, Instant Expert is keenest on the three drawn lowest of all...

...whilst the pace in the race looks like coming from...

I definitely want to take Cavalry Call and War Chant here, leaving me with a choice between Winterfair and Between Me And U, I suppose. The latter is in better form, gets weight all round and will be up with the pace, so in a tricky one to assess, I'm with (1) War Chant, (8) Cavalry Call & (12) Between Me And U.

Leg 5 : 6.30 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Nights Over Egypt won last time out and Kristal Klear won two starts ago, before stepping up in class and going down by just a head as a runner-up at Haydock earlier this month. She's back down in class and the winner from Haydock has since won again and have the horses placed fourth and fifth, so I'd expect Kristal Klear to go well here today. LTO winner Nights Over Egypt is one of only two course winners in the field (Top Button is the other, but looks hindered by being drawn 12 of 12).

Higher drawn runners have fared worse here over this track and trip when it comes to making the frame, so lower drawn horses with early pace have been the ones to look at, which suggests this trio might be in with a shout...

...further cementing the claims of Kristal Klear. I do still want to take Nights Over Egypt, as I think these two are far better than the rest who seem much of a muchness if truth be told. Dynamite Katie has been a runner-up in two of her last four, has the lowest draw possible, gets weight all round and will be up with the pace. She'd be a long shot to win, I'd reckon but I'm taking (1) Nights Over Egypt, (2) Kristal Klear & (12) Dynamite Katie here.

Leg 6 : 7.00 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Swinging Eddie won at Catterick last time out but hasn't raced for almost ten weeks. That said, none of the others even made the frame and Swinging Eddie has 3 win and 2 further places from nine efforts over course/distance, making him one to watch. Lady Wingalong has also had a bit of a break (7 weeks), but with five placed finishes from her last six outings does arrive here in decent nick, as does Awaysmont with two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last six. Carvalhal won four races ago and Gilt Edge has two wins and two places from her seven runs this year.

Instant Expert suggests that American Rose could be well suited by conditions here too and she did win on her last A/W start...

...but the draw seems to be against her and Gilt Edge...

...whilst the pace stats back up Swinging Eddie's claims and also suggest that Carvalhal might be difficult to rein in...

I've got to take (1) Swinging Eddie and (3) Lady Wingalong here based on form, but those pace stats also make (8) Carvalhal a live prospect from a middling draw.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Dubai Magic, (4) Startling & (9) Pure Liberty

Leg 2: (1) All Ways Glamorous, (2) Mockirr & (5) Glowchester

Leg 3: (3) Shamardia and (4) Coconut Bay & (5) Araifjan

Leg 4: (1) War Chant, (8) Cavalry Call & (12) Between Me And U

Leg 5: (1) Nights Over Egypt, (2) Kristal Klear & (12) Dynamite Katie

Leg 6: (1) Swinging Eddie, (3) Lady Wingalong & (8) Carvalhal

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, as ever!
Chris

Tix Picks, Saturday 28/09/24

/in /by

Saturday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Chelmsford, Haydock, Market Rasen, Newmarket and Ripon.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

I've chosen to cover the meeting at Ripon today, where the ground is going to be heavy for our six races, starting with...

Leg 1 : 1.35 Ripon, a 9-runner, Class 5, 2yo maiden over 6f...

Leblon Girl outran her 22/1 odds to finish second of six on debut at Nottingham last month, beaten only by a 1/8 fav, whilst I'm Next was third of nine over 5f at Beverley after a 149-day lay-off.

Dothan was well fancied at Chester on debut, but was a bit green and didn't get going for a while. He seemed to have plenty in the tank late on, though, so he could go well here, as could Medinilla who ran better than 6th of 12 might suggest. She was denied a clear run and had to be switched out inside the final furlong, but did rally to stay on having lost ground. She drops in class here and her jockey is in good nick right now...

...whilst Leblon Girl's jockey has a good record here at Chester...

...and if she's quick away again like last time out, she might not be easy to catch this time.

Safety-first approach for the opener as (2) Dothan, (3) I'm Next, (5) Leblon Girl and (8) Medinilla will all be on my bet builder.

Leg 2 : 2.10 Ripon, a 6-runner, Class 5, 2yo nursery over 1m...

Blessed Star has been knocking on the door with three successive runner-up finishes and she now drops two classes, which might just be enough to get her off the mark. Law Degree was third last time out and has already won on soft ground. Captivate has shaped like needing further than 7f in her three average runs to date, which have 'earned' her a low opening mark of 73, whilst Greek Gift has won two of her last six and has a win and two places from her last four. She was disappointing on the A/W last time out and although second of eight on soft ground at Carlisle a moth ago, would probably want it quicker here.

I can't take all four mentioned from a 6-horse field, but don't want to crash and burn before the 3yo+ handicaps, so I'll semi-reluctantly omit Greek Gift and go with (1) Blessed Star, (2) Captivate & (5) Law Degree

Leg 3 : 2.45 Ripon, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Our Absent Friends has a win and four places from his last six runs, Count D'Orsay has won two from five and has a 44% place strike rate on soft/heavy ground. High Opinion has been running consistently well for some time now, making the frame in 9 of his last 12, winning four times including here over course and distance last time out. Faro De San Juan and Another Baar both won four starts ago, but it's the first-named trio that set the standard on recent form, although Another Baar has gone well on soft/heavy ground and clearly likes it here at Ripon...

...and even if his best form is over 6f, I think he might be worth taking with the two LTO winners in the field, so that's (5) Count D'Orsay, (6) High Opinion & (7) Another Baar here

Leg 4 : 3.20 Ripon, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

Baldomero was a fairly convincing Class 2 winner on soft ground a fortnight ago, making all to win by more than two lengths with the re-opposing Tacarib Bay back in sixth, some 5.5 lengths off the pace. Tacarib Bay is no mug, though, as he entered that race off the back of two narrow runner-up defeats in this grade, which suggest he could go well here too.

Secret Guest has made the frame in four of his last five, including a good third of eighteen in the Great St Wilfrid over this course and distance last time out and based on consistency it would be foolish to write the 10yr old Dakota Gold off. His last two runs haven't been he best, but he won over 6f on soft ground at Redcar in late-May and followed that up by being second over this course and distance and Instant Expert shows his ability to make the frame under today's conditions...

...and as he also heads the pace chart...

...he's hard to ignore, so I'll be taking him with Baldomero and I just need to choose between Secret Guest and Tacarib Bay and I think on recent form, I've a slight leaning toward the former, giving me (4) Baldomero, (5) Dakota Gold & (8) Secret Guest for this one

Leg 5 : 4.00 Ripon, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

My initial shortlist here was Run This Way, Music Society, White Umbrella and Hurstwood. Run This Way landed a hat-trick of wins in the summer including two over course and distance and was only narrowly beaten on heavy ground at Carlisle last time out and drops down a class here as does Music Society, who despite finding wins hard to come by of late was only beaten by a head at Ayr nine days ago, so could be in the mix again here.

White Umbrella also drops in class and has ran better in her last two races than 6th of 9 and then 6th of 11 might suggest. She was beaten by just over two lengths at Hamilton earlier this month and then by less than two lengths at Chester last time out despite being drawn 11 of 11, hardly ideal! Hurstwood doesn't drop in class, but does come here off the back of a win at Redcar and he has made the frame in three of his last six outings.

From the win stats on Instant Expert, Run This Way is the clear standout with Hurstwood probably next best...

...whilst Run This Way is also the pick on pace...

...and as I'm not convinced that Music Society will go well twice in a row (LTO was his first placed finish in 16 starts), I'm going with (2) Run This Way, (5) White Umbrella & (6) Hurstwood here.

Leg 6 : 4.40 Ripon, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

This looks effectively like a two-horse race between former course and distance winner Thornaby Pearl, who was only beaten by three quarters of a length on heavy ground at Chester last time out and Hamilton runner-up Havana Pursuit, who looks the pick of the Tim Easterby-trained trio in this contest.

Both of these runners are below their last winning mark and I'd be surprised if they did provide us with a winner and a placer today. Elsewhere Stormy Pearl has a good place record under today's conditions according to Instant Expert...

...whilst LTO runner-up and botoom weight Mr Trevor has a shout based on his fondness for front-running...

...and although ignoring his early pace might bite me on the backside, I'm going with (2) Thornaby Pearl, (3) Stormy Pearl & (4) Havana Pursuit for the finale.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Dothan, (3) I'm Next, (5) Leblon Girl & (8) Medinilla

Leg 2: (1) Blessed Star, (2) Captivate & (5) Law Degree

Leg 3: (5) Count D'Orsay, (6) High Opinion & (7) Another Baar

Leg 4: (4) Baldomero, (5) Dakota Gold & (8) Secret Guest for this one

Leg 5: (2) Run This Way, (5) White Umbrella & (6) Hurstwood

Leg 6: (2) Thornaby Pearl, (3) Stormy Pearl & (4) Havana Pursuit

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Friday 27/09/24

/in /by

Friday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Haydock, Newmarket, Wolverhampton & Worcester.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pot is at HQ once again, where the Rowley course is said to be soft for our races which kick off with...

Leg 1 : 1.50 Newmarket, a 6-runner, 3yo+ Listed race over 1m...

Doom started the season with three placed efforts at Gr 2/3, but seems to have lost her way lately finishing last of nine and sixth of seven. This is a slight drop in class, but others arrive here in better nick. Sirona also started her season with a pair of Gr 3 placed finishes going sown by no more than a length each time, but after finishing 5th of 7 in a Gr 1 race here at Newmarket, was only 6th of 8 at Ascot last time out.

Spiritual was a Listed class runner-up at York in mid-May and then a winner at Sandown seven weeks later where she made all, but couldn't repeat the feat last time out when upped to Gr 3, finishing 4th of 9. Arisiag's best effort to date is a narrow Class 3 handicap win at Goodwood three starts ago and whilst she's probably going to be a decent handicapper, she might be out of her depth here.

Fair Point looks progressive and after finishing in the first three home in all seven career starts (2 wins), she comes here off the back of a Class 2 handicap win at Ascot where she made all on soft ground. Yes, she's up in class here, but could well be suited to the task. Rolica won a Class 2 maiden here over 7f and was then thrown straight into the 1000 Guineas over this course and distance in early-May, where she wasn't disgraced going down by three lengths as 6th of 18, but couldn't replicate that effort next/last time out when a Gr 3 5th of 9 at Sandown, a place and two lengths behind Spiritual, although she's 3lbs better off here.

Sirona, Spiritual and Fair Point have all won on soft ground, Spiritual has a Class 1 turf win, Rolica has won on this track, whilst Spiritual, Arsaig and Fair Point are all one-mile winners on the Flat, whilst place form looks like this...

Arsaig is probably the one I'm least keen on here, but you could make a case for any of the other five. However, after looking at the pace data and seeing that front-runners fare best, this...

...leads me to picking (3) Spiritual and (5) Fair Point

Leg 2 : 2.25 Newmarket, an 8-runner, 3yo+ fillies and mares Group 3 contest over 1m4f...

Mistral Star has won three of her last seven, including a 1m4f Listed success on the July course here two starts ago and this should represent a slightly easier task than her last race, when 4th of 8 in the Gr 1 Yorkshire Oaks. Time Lock actually won this race last year, but hasn't reproduced the same form in four subsequent races at Gr1 & Gr 2, but the ability to win this is certainly there.

Elsewhere Sea of Roses won a soft ground Listed race last time out, Divian Grace won a Listed race on the July course here two starts ago and the unexposed 3yo Place of Safety was second in the same race, a length and a quarter behind Divina Grace, but remains open to improvement.

Sea of Roses has won two of four on soft ground, but her 1 from 10 record at Class 1 is a worry, mind you Time Lock is also 1 from 10 at Class 1, but has won twice here at Newmarket and twice over this trip, as has Mistral Star, whilst the place stats suggest the top half of the card is the place to be...

(2) Mistral Star is the horse I'd back here if I was looking to find the winner, so she goes on the ticket and from that graphic above, I have to take last year's winner (4) Time Lock who is now down in class with (1) Divina Grace the outsider option.

Leg 3 : 3.00 Newmarket, a 7-runner, 2yo fillies Group 2 race over 7f...

AP O'Brien sends both Bubbling and Ecstatic over for this one and I think I marginally prefer the former to the latter. Bubbling was denied a clear run at Leopardstown last time out, but was still 3rd home of 9 in that Listed race, beaten by less than a length. A clearer run here could be all that it takes for her to land this, although Formal looked very impressive when winning on soft ground at Leicester last time out. She looked strong, made all and had the race wrapped up with a furlong to go. She's up in class here, of course, but looks really progressive. Duty First is also of interest, having finished a Group 3 runner-up on soft ground at Goodwood last time out and as a confirmed front-runner is of obvious interest here.

Runners (1) Bubbling, (3) Duty First and (5) Formal for me here in a bid to cover most bases!

Leg 4 : 3.35 Newmarket, a 6-runner, 3yo+ Group 2 contest over a mile...

Ice Max has won three of his last four including a soft ground Group 2 success at Goodwood over today's trip last time out, beating the re-opposing Poker Face by a length, although Poker Face is now 5lbs better off today, so he could reverse those placings today. Lead Artist is possibly the one to beat here. He has been in the first three home in all five career starts to date, won a Group 3 race two races ago and was a Gr 2 runner-up behind the experienced Kinross at Doncaster last time out.

Of this three-runner shortlist, Instant Expert suggests that Poker Face might be the weakest of the trio under today's conditions...

...and with him being closely matched with Ice Max, I'll side with the latter and take (3) Ice Max along with (5) Lead Artist here

Leg 5 : 4.10 Newmarket, a 13-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 7f...

Seven of the thirteen have yet to race and of the six who have, Seaplane sets the standard with a pair of runner-up finishes, the most recent by just a neck in a higher grade at Ascot with the re-opposing Frankini a length and a half further back on his debut and with Frankini's yard having a 43.2% place strike rate with runners making their second start, he's of interest here...

Archivist was also a runner-up last time out, beaten by a length and a half at Leicester after a slow start and if he gets going a little quicker here, should also be in the mix. Of the debutants, William Buick has chosen Secret Theory over Music of Time from the Appleby-trained Godolphin pair, so that might be a pointer here too.

And in a safety first approach to a field of unknown quantities, I'll take all four from my shortlist ie (1) Archivist, (5) Frankini, (10) Seaplane and (11) Secret Theory

Leg 6 : 4.45 Newmarket, a 9-runner, 3yo+ Listed race over 1m4f...

Military Academy is 2 from 2 and Lucentio has won his last three, but this Gosden-trained pair are both significantly up in class today, although they do both get weight all round from their rivals. Quietness has five wins and a runner-up finish from her last six.

Ziggy's run of eight top-three finishes (2 wins) was ended when he was 13th of 20, beaten by 7.5 lengths in the Ebor last month, whilst stamina shouldn't be an issue for Epic Poet who won the Old Borough Cup at Haydock over 1m6f last time out, staying on well and was 4th in the Ebor over the same trip on his penultimate run. Bigger fields don't faze him either.

My shortlist is completed by Aimeric, who landed a pair of Class 2 handicaps 252 days apart in September '23 and May '24 before a four-race run at Class 1 and whilst not winning any, has run his race each time as a runner-up in back to back Listed races beaten by 2.75 lengths and then by a neck. He was beaten by just over three lengths in a Group 3 race at Goodwood before going down by less than half a length to Sea of Roses (runs in the 2.25 here) in a soft ground Windsor Listed race last time out. An unlikely winner here, but definitely in contention for the frame.

Of this half dozen, only Lucentio has won on soft ground, whilst Aimeric is 4 from 8 at the trip and Quietness is 3 from 3.

Our pace/draw heatmap suggests that the winners comes from (4) Epic Poet and (9) Military Academy...

...so I'll take both of them along with a longer-priced runner in the shape of  (7) Quietness from the place heatmap...

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 3 & 5

Leg 2: horses 1, 2 & 4

Leg 3: horses 1, 3 & 5

Leg 4: horses 3 & 5

Leg 5: horses 1, 5, 10 & 11

Leg 6: horses 4, 7 & 9

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Thursday 26/09/24

/in /by

Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Newmarket, Perth, Pontefract and Southwell.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

...and I think we'll head to HQ, where the going is expected to be predominantly good for...

Leg 1 : 1.35 Newmarket, an 8-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 1m

Not the easiest start to a placepot with seven of the eight on debut! Seacruiser is thew only one with a run under his belt, having finished 5th of 10 in a Class 2 maiden at Goodwood just over three weeks ago. He was beaten by 4.5 lengths that day after being sent off as the 5/2 fav. He should find this easier today, having had that experience and he also drops two classes. The two horses immediately in front of him have both won next time out, so that's a good sign.

Of ther debutants, Naval Command is a half-brother to St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov and has already got a Group 1 entry for the Futurity Stakes at Doncaster in October, so his team must think he has something and with William Buick riding him over stablemate Present Times, you could assume Naval Command is the Appleby first-string?

That said, due to bloodlines, you can never safely rule out Goldolphin 2 yr olds on debut, so Present Times is still in the reckoning, despite Mr Buick choosing Naval Command (James Doyle is no mug in fairness), as is the Gosden trained Devil's Advocate.

I'd hate to crash & burn on leg 1, so it's a safety-first approach with runners (1) Devil's Advocate, (4) Naval Command, (5) Present Times and (6) Seascruiser taken for the ticket builder and I'm still worried!

Leg 2 : 2.10 Newmarket, a 7-runner, Class 4, 2yo nursery over 1m

Another tricky inexperienced field to deal with here, as only Jack Andrea has raced in handicap company before and after only finishing fourth of six at Sandown recently, is now fitted with cheekpieces.

Celeborn and Louie the Legend are the only two with wins under their belt so far. The former took a while to settle on debut at Leicester back in June but once the penny dropped, he stayed on really well to win by 1.5 lengths. He was then gelded during a three month break and returned with a more than creditable third place at Salisbury a fortnight ago.

Louie The Legend has got progressively better in his three runs, finishing 4th of 8 (4.5 lengths down) over 7f at Newcastle on debut at the end of June and then 2nd of 12 (2L) at Chelmsford in early August, before winning at 7f maiden at Chepstow on his turf debut a month ago in a 15-runner field.

Elsewhere, Olympus Point looks reasonably well treated off a mark of just 78 despite making the frame in all three career starts and never beaten by far and the same could be said about Gap Year off a mark of 72. Three of his four starts have been at Class 2 and he drops two classes here having finished 2nd of 15, 3rd of 10 and 4th of 11 at that higher grade. Throw in a 4th of 15 at Class 3 and it could well be that he's better than the assessor thinks.

These four would be my shortlist here, but I don't want to take four from seven from each of the first two races. (1) Celeborn and (2) Olympus Point are definite picks for me based on the above and of the other two, I'll take (3) Louie The Legend, because he won LTO, but might be a longer price.

Leg 3 : 2.45 Newmarket, a 7-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ fillies handicap over 6f

Another tight-looking race here, but one I should be more comfortable with all seven runners having raced at least five times and all having won at least once. That said, none of them even made the frame last time out, which os a negative, as are the 139 day and 209 day layoffs for Geologist and Kinta.

Bottom weight Dance and Romance has two wins and two places from her five career starts, whilst Funny Story has seven top-three finishes from her last eleven starts. Seven of her last eight runs have been in Listed company and with a string of results reading 2712234, you'd have to think she could be a bit better than Class 2?

If I'm against Geologist and Kinta (even if Kinta did win this last year) due to their lay-offs, then Instant Expert suggests that Executive Decision is the most vulnerable of the remaining five contenders...

Of the four still under consideration, recent form is against both Pinafore and Sophia's Starlight, so I'll just take (1) Funny Story and (7) Dance and Romance (who might try to make all here) from this one.

Leg 4 : 3.20 Newmarket, a 7-runner, 2yo, Group 3 contest over 7f

Diego Ventura is two from two so far, both over 6f, but doing his best work late on which suggests the step up to 7f will suit him. Huscal has won each of his last, also both staying on over 6f, but the step up from Class 4 company is huge.

Monumental was a runner-up over 6f and a winner over 7f in Ireland recently before a UK debut saw him finish second on the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster less than a fortnight ago, beaten by just half a length (behind Bay City Roller) and the strength of that run alone makes him the one to beat here

In a similar vein, Symbol of Honour was a clear winner of a Class 4 maiden in mid-May before going down by less than a length in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Ascot a month later. He then took three months off before returning to action as a Listed class runner-up beaten by half a length at Doncaster a fortnight ago. The re-opposing The Waco Kid was third on that race a further 0.75 lengths back and whilst the latter is a contender here too, he'd have to improve more to be ahead of Symbol of Honour, but he makes my 5-runner shortlist.

Of the five, Huscal steps up three classes and The Waco Kid is held by Symbol of Honour, so I'll omit those two to take (3) Diego Ventura, (5) Monumental and (6) Symbol of Honour here.

Leg 5 : 3.55 Newmarket, a 7-runner, 3yo+ Listed race over 2m

In racecard order, I suspect that this might well be a four-horse race between Harbour Wind, Al Nayyir, Night Sparkle and bottom-weight Fighter which would also represent the views of the handicapper. I know it's not a handicap, of course, but if it were, then Al Nayyir would be well in at the weights along with Fighter.

Harbour Wind's half length defeat as a runner-up on his second outing is his sole defeat in five starts and he comes here off the back of Listed class wins at both Leopardstown and Limerick, but he does concede weight all round today.

Al Nayyir was last seen pushing Irish St Leger runner-up Vauban all the way to the line in the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup at York five weeks ago, going down by just a short head, matching his result in March's Group 2 Dubai Gold Cup at Meydan and those runs make him the one to beat here on form.

Night Sparkle has won three and been runner-up in four of her last ten on the Flat, but is winless in seven and with her 2024 form reading 272242, she screams 'consistent, but not quite good enough to win' She was 4th in the Lonsdale (above) a further two places and four lengths behind Al Nayyir and although 2lbs better off here and Group 2 runner-up LTO, I still don't see her beating Al Nayyir, but she might get closer than their last meeting.

As for Fighter, this Frankel colt is a bit of an unknown in the UK, he's getting weight all round and has won both his last two starts (Curragh & Leopardstown), but is now asked for three furlongs more than he's ever raced. That's a tough ask, but he's by Frankel and represents the O'Brien/Moore combo, so you never know.

Instant Expert suggest all four might go well here, as could Samui...

And unusually over a 2m trip, front-running has been beneficial here at Newmarket, albeit off a small sample size of races, which could benefit Fighter more than the others...

Overall, I see (2) Al Nayyir battling with (6) Night Sparkle for the win and whilst I like the breeding and the Trainer/Jockey combo behind Fighter, I think this is a big step up in both class and trip, so I'll take the ultra-consistent (1) Harbour Wind to complete my picks for this race.

Leg 6 : 4.30 Newmarket, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f

Baltic is 5 from 5 in handicap company and that has elevated his mark by some 24lbs, but he remains the one to beat here, especially with his yard's record with LTO winners...

Candyman Stan has improved with each run and made all to romp home by nine lengths at Lingfield recently and an opening mark of 80 doesn't look too punitive. Fighter Command drops in class here after a win and three places from his five starts, whilst Woner Kid has two wins and a runner-up finish from his last four and drops two classes here.

Elsewhere Macari has made the frame in his last two, but as a 4yo is 7lbs 'wrong' here with most of the field being 3 yr olds. Instant Expert leans towards the top of the card too...

..as do the pace scores...

I'd definitely want to take (1) Baltic and (4) Candyman Stan here and it's a bit of a toss-up for the final pick and although I do like the look of Fighter Command, I think (2) Wonder Kid might be better than his last result suggests.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 1, 4 , 5 & 6

Leg 2: horses 1, 2 & 3

Leg 3: horses 1 & 7

Leg 4: horses 3, 5 & 6

Leg 5: horses 1, 2 & 6

Leg 6: horses 1, 2 & 4

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Tuesday 24/09/24

/in /by

Tuesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Beverley, Fontwell, Newcastle & Warwick...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pot of the day is at Newcastle, where the going is said to be standard on the tapeta for...

Leg 1 : 4.10 Newcastle, a 6-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4½f...

Sycamore Gap has made the frame in each of his last three, narrowly failing by a neck over course and distance a week ago. Today's jockey takes 5lbs off an unchanged mark, so this could be the day he finally gets off the mark. Trailblazer was a winner three starts ago, albeit over hurdles but that's the only win any of this field has mustered in a combined 77 starts and his own course and distance form reads 3326, so he could go well again down in class and off a low mark.

Albert Lasker was a runner-up two starts ago over 1m4f at Catterick and is 1lb lower here, whilst bottom-weight Strike Rate was third over this trip at Musselburgh 10 days ago.

Sycamore Gap's team have a good record when turning horses back out within a week of their last run, too...

...whilst a fairly sad-looking Instant Expert graphic confirms the selection of runners (1) Sycamore Gap & (3) Trailblazer...

Leg 2 : 4.45 Newcastle, an 8-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...

None of these managed to win last time out |(six of them have never won!), but 25-race maiden Fiftyshadesaresdev got to within three quarters of a length from finally winning a race when runner-up here over course and distance a week ago with the re-opposing Vintage Love a further two places and half a length back, but Vintage Love is better off at the weights today and despite also being a maiden after 15 starts has also been getting closer, finishing fourth in three of her last four.

In truth, it's a pretty poor race and one that top-weight Masque of Anarchy should be winning relatively comfortably. He's 2 from 6 here at Newcastle plus a place, he has made the frame 8 times from 17 over this trip (winning 5 times) and his form over course and distance reads 12160. These are probably the three to focus on, but Bellslea might go better in first-time cheekpieces and Three Platoon has made the frame in 5 of 14 A/W starts.

Bellslea will also probably provide the early pace, which might help him 'nick' a place from the front...

...whilst from a stats perspective, Vintage Love's yard are in good recent form and have a decent record turning horses back out quickly...

...so I'll take (6) Vintage Love as my next best to (1) Masque of Anarchy with the outsider (5) Bellslea added in case he sets the pace and the race falls apart behind him.

Leg 3 : 5.20 Newcastle, a 6-runner, Class 5, 2yo novice stakes over 7f...

The form guide points to the improving Mr Fantastic who kicked off with a Class 4 third, then a Class 3 second before another runner-up finish but at Class 2 earlier this month. Down three classes today, he should be tough to beat, although Boston Run was a runner-up in each of his first two starts and despite only finishing 4th of 12 at Haydock next/last time out, he was only a couple of lengths down at the pole. Kirkdale was three quarters of a length further back that day and he has since finished second of seven at Musselburgh, so that bodes well for (1) Boston Run, who I'll take along with (2) Mr Fantastic here.

Leg 4 : 5.55 Newcastle, an 8-runner, Class 5, 2yo maiden fillies stakes over 7f...

Harswell Ruby and Titian Blue both made the frame on debut but both finished sixth next/last time out, whilst Orange Sky's sole run to date saw her finish second of eleven at Newbury and although beaten by four lengths, she was 4.5 lengths clear of the third placed horse in a strung out field. Suhub (4th) was 6.25 lengths behind her, but has since finished second herself at Newmarket, so with a drop in class here (5) Orange Sky would be my first pick.

Next best, based on debut runs would be either of the afore-mentioned Titian Blue or Harswell Ruby who both finished sixth last time out. The former drops one class here, but hasn't raced for nearly four months, whilst the latter drops three classes and should be more race-ready, so (3) Harswell Ruby finds her way onto my Tix ticket builder but in the interest of caution in a trick race to call, I'll hedge my bets and take (8) Titian Blue too!

Leg 5 : 6.30 Newcastle, a 10-runner, Class 6, 2yo nursery over 6f...

Only Monticristo Boy (twice from seven, Stat Goddess (once from ten) and Ashen Glow (once from seven) have ever made the frame with Montecristo finishing second and third in his last two outings. he wasn't sharp/quick enough over 5f at Musselburgh last time out, but the step back up to 6f and the return to Tapeta makes him the most likely here.

He was second of eleven at Southwell on that last 6f tapeta run with the re-opposing Indy's Angel less than half a length further back on her handicap debut, so she could be close to my pick yet again here.

Elsewhere, Ashen Glow represents the formidable A/W partnership of Watson & Doyle and the yard is in good nick right now and has a more than decent record at this venue...

...and with (6) Ashen Glow looking like providing the pace here...

...I have to take her along with the other pair, (3) Monticristo Boy and (5) Indys Angel

Leg 6 : 7.00 Newcastle, a 13-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Jockey Hollie Doyle is in really good form right now, making the frame in 23 of her 52 rides over the last fortnight and her record on horses trained by Liam Bailey reads 155341 and they team up here with Doomsday, who didn't quite manage to make all over a mile at Musselburgh ten days ago. He did hold on for second, beaten by a neck and should go well again dropped back to 7f, especially having made all win at this trip also at Musselburgh at the start of August.

(4) Doomsday is a clear pick for me on the ticket, but the rest of the field look quite evenly matched, but top-weight Smalleytime is now a pound lower than when winning over course and distance back in April and Drakeholes is only 2lbs higher than his own March C&D success.

Miss Willows was a 7f winner at Catterick three starts ago, whilst Alice's Impact makes an A/W debut after a win and two runner-up finishes from her last four on Turf and is only 2lbs higher than that win.

On the win aspect of Instant Expert, all bar two runners have a full line of red...

...and the same applies with the place stats...

...whilst Doomsday provides the pace...

...cementing (1) Smalleytime, (2) Drakeholes and (4) Doomsday as my picks here

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 1 & 3

Leg 2: horses 1, 5 & 6

Leg 3: horses 1 & 2

Leg 4: horses 3, 5 & 8

Leg 5: horses 3, 5 & 6

Leg 6: horses 1, 2 & 4

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

PS A quick reminder, I'm currently on a small island off the coast of Bali and tomorrow, I need to get over to the ferry port, sail back to Bali and then get to my next hotel on the main island, so I won't be doing a piece for Wednesday's racing, sorry!

Tix Picks, Monday 23/09/24

/in /by

Monday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Hamilton, Sedgefield & Wolverhampton...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pot is at Wolverhampton, but it's a dreadful looking card, so we're heading North to Hamilton Park for six races on good to soft ground, starting with...

Leg 1 : 1.48 Hamilton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ handicap over 1m½f...

Rebecca's Girl is the clear 'form' horse here, finishing 2123 in her last four, but Temper Trap was a runner-up last time out, Absolute Dream has a win and a runner-up finish from his last five starts and has won both his last two races here at Hamilton whilst Retirement Beckons is a 4-time course and distance winner.

Instant Expert also says Rebecca's Girl is the one to beat...

...and although there's not a great deal of pace in the field, she's one of the more likely prominent runners on a track that favours leaders, as is Temper Trap...

So, I'll be taking Rebecca's Girl & Temper trap, of course, but also adding CD specialist Retirement Beckons, just in case!

Leg 2 : 2.23 Hamilton, a 6-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 6f...

It'll probably pay to focus on the bottom half of the card here (all fillies), even if Misty Sky, Thecla and Koulikoro all step up in class after being in the frame last time out. Bottom weight Koulikoro was a runner-up beaten by just a neck in an 11-runner race after the winner had nicked an early lead, but our filly stayed on well and there should be more to come. She's a half-sister to a few winners and she'd be my pick here.

Next best would be Thecla, whose runner-up finish on her second/last outing earlier this month was much better than her debut and further progression should/could see her get even closer to breaking her duck today, whilst Misty Sky is another who seems to be improving. She refused to race on 'debut' at Pontefract in June, but was then 5th of 8 (4.5 lengths defeat) when she finally did run at Chester, but was 3rd of 8, beaten by just over a length and a half at Chepstow last time out, so so she still have more to show.

I'll take all three here.

Leg 3 : 2.58 Hamilton, a 6-runner, Class 4, 2yo nursery over 5f...

The Dragon King had won two on the bounce before a Class 2 defeat (6th of 16, 4L down) at Goodwood last time out and is of obvious interest back down two classes and back to his favoured 5f trip. Invincible Annice was slow away over 5f at Chester on her last run effectively losing the race before it started for her, but she had won over course and distance here one her previous run, whilst Music History won three starts ago and drops three classes here after only losing by 2.5 lengths in a Listed race at Newbury and it's worth noting that jockey Callum Rodriguez is flying right now, especially on Edward Bethell's horses...

Off very limited data, of course, Instant Expert also points to The Dragon King & Invincible Annice...

...but Call Me Harswell has a good to soft ground win, has won twice over today's trip and looks like he might try to nick this from the front...

The Dragon King & Invincible Annice are my obvious focus here, but Call Me Harswell edges Music History for third for me, due to the pace aspect and she ran pretty well in defeat at Thirsk last time out.

Leg 4 : 3.33 Hamilton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f...

A really open-looking contest here with cases to made for all of them potentially. Papagei comes here seeking a hat-trick, gets a 7lbs weight allowance anad has won three of his last six (plus finishing third twice). Tafsir has also won won three of six with a third place finish in there too. She's one of three runners trained by Jim Goldie in this race, but Paul Mulrennan rides Tafsir with the other two (Soowaih & Spanish Hustle) being ridden by claimers, suggesting Tafsir is the yard's first pick.

The consistent Minstrel Knight might not win often enough, but is 333212 in his last six, represents the Bethell/Rodriguez combo from the previous race and gets the same 7lbs allowance as Papagei, effectively making him bottom weight here.

Tafsir's credentials are further enhanced by Instant Expert with Spectacular Style & Spanish Hustle also making their own claims here

...and this pair are likely to be up with the pace early on...

I'm definitely taking Papagei and Tafsir, but need a safety net from Spectacular Style, Spanish Hustle or Minstrel Knight and I think that with Roger Varian having such a great record here at Hamilton...

...Spectacular Style will be the one I choose.

Leg 5 : 4.08 Hamilton, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Keldeo won last time out and has made the frame in five of her last eight starts, winning twice. Lady Celia is a course and distance winner who has won two of her last five, finishing fourth in the other three, but all in big-fields and not beaten by far. Strong Johnson has made the frame in three of his last four and drops in class here, whilst bottom-weight Stash The Cash produced his best run to date when beaten by a neck as a runner-up last time out.

There's no obvious front-runner here, but based on their recent efforts, Keldeo, Strong Johnson and Stash The Cash might be the ones to take it on...

I'm happy to pick from the four horses I've named here and I'm firm on the two females in the race, Keldeo & Lady Celia, so will need to choose between Strong Johnson & Stash The Cash if I'm taking a third pick and based on class movements after defeats, I'm taking class-dropper Strong Johnson rather than class-riser Stash The Cash.

Leg 6 : 4.43 Hamilton, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo handicap over 6f...

Game Breaker won last time out, getting home by a neck over course and distance on heavy ground almost three weeks ago, whilst fast-finishing Showhound produced his best run for over a year at Chester (3rd of 11, half a length down) in first-time cheekpieces which are retained here. Wichahpi has finished 1231 in her last four efforts on Turf whilst Gundogan (another from the Bethell/Rodriguez combo mentioned earlier) has a win and four runner-up finishes from his last seven races.

These are the four that I'd probably want to focus on here and of these, Wichahpi looks like the one who might try to dictate the way the race is run...

...whilst from a stats perspective, Game Breaker leads the way...

And if we're still in the mix after five races, I want to take a safety-first approach and will take all four runners mentioned.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 1, 5 & 7

Leg 2: horses 4, 5 & 6

Leg 3: horses 1, 4 & 5

Leg 4: horses 2, 4 & 5

Leg 5: horses 1, 2 & 3

Leg 6: horses 2, 3, 4 & 7

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

PS A heads up, I'm currently on a small island off the coast of Bali and on Wednesday, I need to get over to the ferry port, sail back to Bali and then get to my next hotel on the main island, so I won't be doing a piece for Wednesday's racing, sorry!

Tix Picks, Saturday 21/09/24

/in /by

Saturday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Ayr, Chester, Newbury, Newmarket & Wolverhampton...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

I think we'll head to the Rowley at HQ where the ground is expected to be good (firmer in places) for our six races today, starting with...

Leg 1 : 1.35 Newmarket, a 7-runner, Class 4, 2yo fillies novice stakes...

Of the four with racecourse experience, Fool Again and Sea To Sky are ther obvious picks after runner-up finishes on debut three weeks ago. Sea To Sky was second to Flight, whose career form reads 2213 after she subsequently finished third in a Group 2 race.

Sea To Sky also drops two classes here and with her yard in such great form right now...

...she'd be my main pick here, but I'd also take Fool Again on the back of her run at Beverely. She was slow away but soon got the hang of things, gave chase, stayed on and ended up a runner-up beaten by just half a length. Maywedance was 3 places and 7 lengths further back and she has gone on to make the frame since.

Of those making their debut today, Pearl Of Hope would be the one for me. She's a half-sister to a Group 1 winner and there's a stack of stats to suggest she might go well here...

I'll take runners 2, 6 & 7 here.

Leg 2 : 2.10 Newmarket, a 13-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ fillies handicap over a mile...

You could make a case for several of these in an open-looking race. Reach looked like she needed the run at York last time out, but had three wins and two places from her previous six outings and she's down two classes here. Surveyor has two wins and two runner-up finishes (inc LTO) from her last six, has already won over today's trip and also drops in class. Get Jiggy With It is another class-dropping LTO runner-up and she has made the frame in ten of her twelve career starts and overall I suspect we'll be making our selection from the top half of this graphic...

...and on the basis of this, I'll stick with my in-form class droppers Reach, Surveyor & Get Jiggy With It, aka runners 1, 4 & 11 with Sea Regal the obvious danger.

Leg 3 : 2.45 Newmarket, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

King of Charm won last time out, as did Kracking, whilst Musical Mystery and Bell Shot were runners-up and Kodiac Thriller finished third and on form, they'd be my shortlist here. Of those, Kracking is stepping up two classes here, so that makes life more difficult for him, but he is 2121 in his last four and looks perfectly poised on the pace/draw heat map to make the frame chasing Bell Shot home perhaps?

...whilst Instant Expert for my shortlist looked like this...

All five are easily good enough to make the frame, but I need to make a decision and I'm going to side with Bell Shot, King Of Charm and Kodiac Thriller here, runners 4, 6 & 8. I did like Kracking too, but the two class rise and that IE graphic have tempered my enthusiasm a little, but he'll probably give it a right go up front.

Leg 4 : 3.20 Newmarket, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

Regal Envoy was a runner-up last time out, whilst both Ingra Tor and Angel Shared finished third. Miss Show Off ran really well at Sandown three weeks ago and despite finishing 4th of 10 was within three quarters of a length of the winner and a nose behind the above-mentioned Ingra Tor despite not having raced for 14 months since winning at Newbury in July 2023. Equiano Springs won this race in both 2021 and 2022, but the 10 yr old is on a 9-race losing streak.

From a pace perspective, it has paid to race in advance of mid-field here over the straight six, which gives an advantage to Dashing Dick, Miss Show Off, Regal Envoy, Angel Shared, Jungle Land, Spring Bloom and Ingra Tor (just!)

...whilst Instant Expert points to the following...

On countback of positive mentions, the closely-matched pair of Ingra Tor and Miss Show Off feature most, so I'll take both of them here with Spring Bloom as a backup plan ie runners 2, 8 & 9

Leg 5 : 3.55 Newmarket, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 2m2f...

Bringbackmemories won last time out a week ago for a second win in three starts (but last home of 16 in between the wins!). Story Horse, Robert Johnson and Premiere Ligne were all runners-up with the latter finishing 31222 in his last five whilst both Diamond Bay and bottom-weight Yorkindness has finished 323 in her last three. Elsewhere Tactician has two wins and a runner-up finish from his last four outings and as the sole 3yo in the race will get a more than handy 11lbs weight allowance.

All bar Story Horse of the above seem well suited to the task ahead according to Instant Expert with the addition of Trooper Bisdee...

..and as earlier, I could sit and make a case for all of these, but based on form/Instant Expert, I'm going to go with Bringbackmemories, Premiere Ligne & Tactician, numbers 4, 6 and 10 on your racecards.

And we close with Leg 6 : 4.30 Newmarket, a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ fillies handicap over 1m2f...

Speriamo won two days ago in a race I covered and didn't pick her! Dubai Melody and Milliterries also won last time out. Ciara Pearl is 1223 in her last four, Chorus won two starts ago and Mrs Twig is two from four and three from six, but needs to bounce back from a couple of disappointing Class 3 outings, whilst Dayzee might need the run after 204 days off, although she does seem to have the ideal pace profile...

...along with Ciara Pearl who is the pick of the pack on Instant Expert...

...making her my first choice here and with both Chorus and Dubai Melody dropping down two classes and receiving 5lbs allowances as 3 yr olds, my picks here are runners 2, 4 & 5.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 2, 6 & 7

Leg 2: horses 1, 4 & 11

Leg 3: horses 4, 6 & 8

Leg 4: horses 2, 8 & 9

Leg 5: horses 4, 6 & 10

Leg 6: horses 2, 4 & 5

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

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