Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My chosen settings for the report...
...have yielded a couple of regular placers on the A/W...
...and this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...
- 2.05 Doncaster
- 2.20 Lingfield
- 3.15 Doncaster
- 6.15 Wolverhampton
From which, I think I'll have a quick look at the two H4C contenders, starting with Man On A Mission, a 4yr old gelding who'll tackle the 3.55 Lingfield, a 9-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed five furlongs on standard polytrack...
MoaM comes here in great form, having won three on the bounce, but Pablo del Pueblo also won last time out. Our runner is noted as a fast finisher and unlike the other LTO winner, isn't stepping up in class here. He's had 16 days rest since his last run/win and now seeks to land a hat-trick of course and distance successes inside 25 days. Three others (Lilkian, Mick's Spirit & Hey Ho Let's Go) have also won here over 5f, whilst Pablo del Pueblo has won here twice over 6f and over today's trip at Kempton.
The two LTO winners look like taking differing approaches to this contest, as Pablo tends to get out quickly, whilst MoaM tends to time his run for the line a little later, according the field's last four outings...
...and the pair are drawn quite a way from each other with MoaM in stall 3 of 8 and Pablo out widest. Our Draw Analyser & Pace Analyser will hopefully give us an indication of where the optimum placing might be, starting with the draw...
...where there's not a massive bias, but if you had the choice, you'd want to be at the lower end of the draw (good news for MoaM), whilst the pace stats from all those races look like this...
...and these are pretty much what I'd expect over 5f. This means that MoaM will have his work cut out to win, but he's won his last two with similar tactics from stalls 2 of 7 and also from 7 of 8, which almost makes a mockery of our pace/draw heat map...
Pablo sits in high/led, which should give him a great chance of going well and whilst MoaM shouldn't be suited by a low/held-up positioning, he's a fast finisher and will relish conditions according to Instant Expert...
...where he's the clear standout. Pablo is unproven beyond Class 6 and is up in class here. Mick's Spirit looks weak at going/class/trip and Lilkian is the only other consistent looking runner based on win stats.
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Our second runner is Algheed who goes in the 6.45 Wolverhampton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed 7f on standard tapeta. The racecard...
...says that this 5yr old mare is also in prime form, having won three on the bounce including a course and distance win last time out. None of her rivals come here off the back of a win, but she does step up in class. Three others (Jilly Cooper, Visibility & Global Warning) have also won over course and distance. The yard and jockey are in good form and there's a stack of stats to support our runner here...
Algheed has finished 3111 in her last four by racing in an advanced position and the pace rankings from the field's last four outings suggests she'll be able to tuck in behind Free Solo and Visibility here to get that spot she runs so well from...
...whilst the likes of Rishies Baar and Starshiba are going to have pass everyone else if they're going to be successful. Mind you, the latter is 11313 from his last five, so a hold-up position doesn't necessarily rule him out. He'll make that run from stall 7 with only the likely leader Free Solo outside him. Our featured runner Algheed is just inside in stall 6, so there's a possibility that Starshiba might get drawn into the contest a little sooner than usual.
Of those three runners, the pace stats for past 8-runner 7f contests here suggest Algheed is best suited by the draw...
...whilst a prominent/leading position is the best one to assume in those races...
So, we have Algheed as a mid to high drawn prominent runner and our pace/draw heat map suggests that's a great place to be...
We don't really have any runner to fill the mid-draw mid-div role, so Algheed's placement could well be the best of the lot. There are however, two areas of potential concern as she's going to need another career best here up 5lbs from her last run, but most of these are higher than their last win and the other possible issue is her poor 0/4 record in this grade on the A/W, but her 2 wins and 6 places from 9 Wolverhampton runs might just see her home.
Summary
Two H4C runners in top form...
We started with Man on a Mission, who ticks pretty much every box if you can overlook the fact that he might start slowly, but that hasn't stopped him winning three on the bounce since Christmas. He's only up 3lbs for his latest win and he's the to beat here, I'd say. 5/2 is probably a fair reflection of his chances based on what we've shown above and the main danger might well come from the 11/2 shot Lilkian, who was a length behind the selection LTO and is now 4lbs better off.
Our second runner was Algheed and I like her too, but I'm not quite as bullish about her chances. there are a couple of areas of concern, but she does go really well here and her 2/1 ticket is probably about right. The main rivals in the market are the class-dropping Jilly Cooper, who's back at her best trip and Starshiba, who might well have won last time out had he got going a little sooner. With pace either side of him here, he might get very close to Algheed and I suspect these will be the first three home. Should one fail to fire, it might well open the door to the generally unspectacular, but consistent Visibility, a 4-time track winner, about whom 16/1 might be a tidy E/W punt with Bet365.
You're not getting rich off these two, but they have good chances and they could even land a nice near 10/1 double.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
