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Placepot Pointers – Monday 18th December

PLUMPTON – DECEMBER 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £16.30 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (12.20): 1 (Knocknanuss) & 14 (Lisp)

Leg 2 (12.50): 1 (Fixe Le Cap) & 3 (Not Another Muddle)

Leg 3 (1.20): 8 (Sam Brown), 1 (Delire D’Estruval) & 3 (New To This Town)

Leg 4 (1.50): 1 (City Supreme), 4 (Leith Hill Lad) & 5 (Talk Of The South)

Leg 5 (2.25): 7 (Café Au Lait) & 2 (Le Capriceux)

Leg 6 (3.00): 2 (Stoical Patient), 6 (Finnegan’s Garden) & 4 (Easter In Paris)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.20: Gary Moore has secured three of the four renewals to date, having saddled the silver medallist in the race that eluded the stable.  Penalised runners have won three of the four contests thus far whereby Gary Moore’s KNOCKNANUSS has been well placed by the trainer who seemingly only has LISP to worry about.  Layers are offering ‘14/1 bar the two’ at the time of writing and from a Placepot perspective, there seems to be little reason why I should waste any more time on the contest.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, though the one favourite of the trio that did not actually win its respected event was sent off as a beaten 1/4 chance twelve months ago.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/2—Knocknanuss (good to firm)

 

12.50: Nicky Henderson saddled the beaten 1/4 favourite in the opening event last year whereby punters might take that stat as a sobering thought before wading into Nicky’s only runner on the card today, namely FIXE LE CAP.  That said, connections will probably take the view that any problem here is likely to be in front of the Kapgarde gelding (relating to the fences) rather than a realistic threat from his three rivals, albeit NOT ANOTHER MUDDLE is certainly a horse with ability.  With only five races under his belt as a six-year-old, Gary Moore’s soft ground Fontwell winner has not been the easiest horse to handle, though I can’t see either of the other pair really troubling the afore mentioned contenders, though SILVERHOW will surely claim the bronze medal if the race pans out as suggested.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Plumpton card.

 

1.20: Five-year-olds have won half (6/12) of the recent contests, with SAM BROWN looking to extend the good run of vintage representatives in this novice hurdle event.  Anthony Honeyball has his runners in fine fettle just now, producing stats of 12/52 since the end of October, figures which have realised five points of level stake profit.  Unfortunately for connections, Ben Pauling (DELIRE D’ESTRUVAL) and Colin Tizzard (NEW TO THIS TOWN) are also in fine form and this trio look set to dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: Favourites come to the gig on a seven timer, whilst nine of the last ten market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/2—Mickieblueeyes (heavy)

 

1.50: Horses carrying 11-6 or more come into the gig having won the last four renewals and six of the last eight contests.  CIIY SUPREME and LEITH HILL LAD (listed in order of preference) represent some each way value from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap, whilst TALK OF THE SOUTH is added into the Placepot equation.  The lads/lasses in the trade press office were fanciful in suggesting that BEARS RAILS would start at 3/1 but then again, the current 15/8 quote does not offer any value and somewhere down the line, I have to speculate that there is a race on the card that could produce the spark to ignite the Placepot flame.

Favourite factor: Although only two favourites have won during the last decade, nine of the ten winners scored at a top price of 8/1, whilst the other gold medallist could hardly be classed as a no-hoper having previaled at 12/1.  That said, only two of the last six market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/2—City Supreme (heavy)

1/5—Talk Of The South (soft)

2/11—Frank N Fair (good & good to soft)

 

2.25: Results were against the punters until the last three favourites obliged and potential investors must have wished that the 9/4 suggestion in the trade press about CAFE AU LAIT was a realistic quote.  The best price on offer at the time of writing is 5/6 and it’s doubtful if the market leader is going into odds against territory given the lack of strength relating to his rivals.  Only in June and September this year has Dan Shelton failed to notch double figure win totals and even then, the trainer boasted a 17% strike rate which many handlers would be happy to achieve on a long term basis.  The writing was on the wall in the 2013/14 season when Dan secured 73 winners which nearly trebled the tally from the previous term.  Now needing just one gold medallist to match last year’s total of 118, I’m not sure just how much people really appreciate this meteoric rise in such a short career.   The two youngest (six-year-old) rivals might chase CAFÉ AU LAIT home on this occasion, namely LE CAPRICEUX and BLUE APRIL.

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Favourite factor: Nine of the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 17/2.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/3—Thundering Home (good to soft)

2/12—Kastani Beach (good & heavy)

 

3.00: Two defectors have potentially put this event into ‘win only’ territory which could make all the difference to the eventual Placepot dividend.  Yes, STOICAL PATIENT should land the hat trick in this grade/company but because of the uncertainty relating to the number of participants, I’m including FINNEGAN’S GARDEN and EASTER IN PARIS in the Placepot mix.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last decade.  That said, three of the last six winners have scored at 33/1, 16/1 & 14/1; hence my worry relating to a potential ‘win only’ event unfolding.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Stoical Patient (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Plumpton card on Monday – followed by the number of winners they have saddled (in brackets) on the corresponding card during the last five years:

8 runners—Gary Moore (6)

5—Anthony Honeyball (1)

4—Paul Henderson (1)

3—Diana Grissell

3—Colin Tizzard (1)

2—Zoe Davidson (1)

2—Nick Gifford (1)

2—Linda Jewell (1)

2—Neil Mulholland

2—Seamus Mullins

2—Brendan Powell (1)

2—Dan Skelton

2—Sam Thomas

+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ffos Las: £57.90 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Musselburgh: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar

Wolverhampton: £370.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday November 30

TAUNTON – NOVEMBER 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £24.30 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Taunton: 

Leg 1 (12.20): 1 (Challico) & 4 (Diese Des Bieffes)

Leg 2 (12.50): 1 (Brahms De Clermont) & 2 (Barn Hill)

Leg 3 (1.20): 3 (One Of Us), 1 (Gold Mountain) & 2 (Pengo’s Boy)

Leg 4 (1.50): 1 (Lovely Job), 4 (Beau De Brizais) & 3 (Captain Buck’s)

Leg 5 (2.20): 2 (Cabernet D’Alene), 10 (Serveontime) & 8 (Goal)

Leg 6 (2.50): 1 (Double Accord), 3 (Thegirlfrommilan) & 2 (More Than Luck)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.20: Two obvious places to start and finish in this event with Paul Nicholls (CHALLICO) taking on Nicky Henderson (DIESE DES BEIFFES).  This is very much Paul’s part of the country; hence the two horses being listed in order of preference.  Next!

Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have snared gold and silver medals alongside Placepotpositions.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Challico (good to firm)

1/1—Show On The Road (good)

 

12.50: Paul Nicholls should secure a quick double on the card having entered BRAHMS DE CLERMONT, albeit his Kayf Tara representative has been recorded as a beaten favourite on his last two outings at odds of 4/6 and 5/4.  The Philip Hobbs newcomer BARN HILL is a well related type and as the only trainer to have secured a double on the corresponding card (2013) during the last five years, Philip’s entry catches the eye in another poor race with which to start the meeting.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening race on the card whereby the same stats apply. The two favourites to date have snared gold and silver medals alongside Placepotpositions.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/1—Brahms De Clermont (good)

 

1.20: I have made the point several times down the years that handicap hurdle races beyond the minimum trip offer the worst favourite record in either sector of the sport and the favourite stats below suggest that this is a good race to confirm that point.  Having secured just three bronze medals from six assignments to date, ONE OF US might not appear to be the logical call but there is enough money in the positive queue on the exchanges in the dead of night to suggest that this could be his day.  GOLD MOUNTAIN offers some value for money from a Placepot perspective given the good ground which appears to suit Harry Cobden’s mount, whilst course winner PENGO’S BOY completes my trio against the remaining four runners in this ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Only one favourite has won via seven contests, though six winners scored at a top price of 11/2.  Five of the eight market leaders snared Placepot positions

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/4—Gold Mountain (good to firm)

1/3—Pengo’s Boy (good to soft)

 

1.50: This could easily be diluted into a ‘win only’ contest and the trio to concentrate on appear to be LOVELY JOB, BEAU DE BRIZAIS and CAPTAIN BUCK’S, the trio being listed in order of preference at the time of writing.  I suggested yesterday that the two four runner races at Wetherby would ensure that the eventual Placepot dividend would be worth winning and so it proved, despite the fact that favourites won both events.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/4 favourite prevailed before last year’s 10/3 market leader was badly hampered at the third last before unseating his rider.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/3—Captain Buck’s

2/4—Beau Du Brizais (good & good to firm)

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2.20: Ambrais Des Marais look the most vulnerable favourite on the card with 5/2 freely available via the exchanges about what is a 7/4 chance right across the bookmaking boards.  Value for money appears to be in the offing about the 4/1 quote by Hills/Betfred/Tote relating to the chance of CABERNET D’ALENE. Both of the Nick Williams/Lizzie Kelly raiders on the card have decent chances according to the gospel of yours truly, with their five-year-old raider possibly following One Of Us into the area reserved for winners this afternoon.  Others to consider include SERVEONTIME and GOAL who is marginally preferred to Ballyegan, mainly because of the weight stats.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 2/1 favourite finished nearer last than first (10/17), before the 15/8 market leader twelve months ago found a (Paul Nicholls trained) 12/1 chance too strong at the business end of the contest.

Record of the course winners in the penultimate leg:

1/3—Cabernet D’Alene

1/8—Goal (good)

 

2.55: Eight of the ten winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-11, statistics which reduces the ‘dead eight’ field down to four if you take the figures seriously.  The fact that seven-year-olds have won three of the last eight renewals suggests that DOUBLE ACCORD and THEGIRLFROMMILAN (10/1 with Hills looks to big) are the pair to home in on, from a Placepot perspective at least.  I’m adding the insurance value of MORE THAN LUCK into the mix.

Favourite factor: Two winning favourites to report, with six of the last seven market leaders having finished in the frame.  Seven of the last eight winners have scored at a top price of 9/2.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Double Accord (good)

4/15—Ballyegan (3 x good to soft & soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Taunton card on Thursday followed by their ratio at the track this season + Profit/loss accrued:

4 runners—Philip Hobbs (0/3)

4—Paul Nicholls (2/6 – loss of 3 points)

3—Johnny Farrelly (0/4)

3—Evan Williams (0/3)

2—Rebecca Curtis (0/1)

2—Vic Dartnall (No previous runners at Taunton this season)

2—Alexandra Dunn (0/4)

2—Jimmy Frost (0/1)

2—Nicky Henderson (1/1 +3)

2—Anthony Honeyball (1/2 +1)

2—Tim Vaughan (0/4)

2—Robert Walford (No previous runners)

2—Nick Williams (1/3 – slight profit)

+ 36 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

68 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Musselburgh: Meeting abandoned

Towcester: £211.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 8th November

NOTTINGHAM - NOVEMBER 8

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham: 

Leg 1 (12.35): 4 (Blacklooks), 10 (Burn Some Dust) & 11 (Odds On Oli)

Leg 2 (1.05): 9 (Rhode Island), 13 (Young Rascal) & 12 (Victory Chime)

Leg 3 (1.40): 4 (Glencadam Master), 2 (Best Blue) & 7 (Nibras Galaxy)

Leg 4 (2.15): 4 (Gracious John) & 3 (Clem Fandango)

Leg 5 (2.50): 10 (Fantasy Keeper), 4 (Quick Look) & 6 (Van Gerwen)

Leg 6 (3.20): 1 (Ebitda) & 10 (Sarabi)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.35: I wrote a book called ‘Nursery Class’ many years ago at which time I suggested that the majority of Richard Fahey’s two-year-old handicap winners carried a maximum of nine stones – and little changed down the years. I’m not suggesting that ODDS ON OLI can actually win this event though at around the 18/1 mark, Joe Fanning’s mount could represent some value for money from a Placepot perspective.  At the other end of the market, both BURN SOME DUST and BLACKLOOKS won last time out which at least offered proof that they have what it takes to win races, something that arounds two third of the horses in training fail to achieve.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 13/8 favourite duly obliged.

 

1.05: 21 of the last 23 winners of this event have scored at odds of 11/1 or less which is a terrific record, especially at this stage of the season when results can go ‘belly up’.  Money has arrived overnight for the likes of RHODE ISLAND, YOUNG RASCAL and VICTIORY CHIME and with jungle drums failing to beat for any of the other contenders, this trio will carry my Placepot cash.  The latter named pair might have t best of the draw on this occasion.

Favourite factor: 22 of the 31 market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include 10 successful favourites.

Draw factor (eight furlongs – the most recent result offered first):

14-1-2 (17 ran-good)

11-4-15 (13 ran-good)

4-11-6 (10 ran-soft)

10-11-9 (11 ran-soft)

9-10-15-14 (17 ran-good to soft)

9-3-15-7 (17 ran-good to soft)

7-2-12 (9 ran-soft)

11-9-6 (11 ran-soft)

3-4-8 (12 ran-soft)

6-8-3 (13 ran-soft)

3-6-9 (17 ran-soft)

8-15-14 (17 ran-soft)

8-3-14 (14 ran-heavy)

10-5-12 (16 ran-soft)

5-8-11 (15 ran-soft)

6-8-4 (17 ran-heavy)

11-6-2 (10 ran-good to firm)

5-10-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

2-3-6 (12 ran-good to soft)

12-9-14 (14 ran-soft)

1 & 10 D/H-12 (13 ran-heavy)

2-5-12 (13 ran-heavy)

14-4-2 (15 ran-heavy)

17-6-18 (17 ran-good to soft)

6-3-2 (16 ran-good to soft)

 

1.40: BEST BLUE and NIBRAS GALAXY offer some hope against the majority of the shorter priced contenders I’ll wager, whilst GLENCADAM MASTER (like Rhode Island in the first division of this contest) looks another John Gosden type for the short list.  Any money for GREAT BEYOND could be worth heeding later in the day.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card whereby the same favourite/draw stats apply.

 

2.15: GRACIOUS JOHN was the first name mentioned in the analysis for the first running of this event twelve months ago before going on to score at 12/1.  Such generous odds will not be in place this time around but with CLEM FANDANGO being the only horse in the line up that I genuinely fear, ‘John’ is included in my Placepot mix again.

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Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite finished just out of the money in fourth place.

Record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—Perfect Pasture (good)

1/2—Gracious John (good)

2/7—Classic Pursuit (good & good to soft)

 

2.50: Five of the six winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2, whilst four-year-olds have secured three of the six contests to date.  Recent winners QUICK LOOK and VAN GERWEN boast ticks in both of the trend boxes, whilst soft ground winner FANTASY KEEPER completes my trio against the field.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven market leaders have secured Placepot positions, stats which include two (11/4 & 13/8) winners.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Musharrif

1/3—Fantasy Keeper (soft)

1/1—Jabbarockie (good to soft)

 

3.20: Scott Dixon has raided this venue to good effect this season whereby if you want to include an each alternative each way/Placepot option against hot favourite EBITDA, Scott’s SARABI would be the call.  Sarabi represents the four-year-old vintage which has claimed six of the last eleven renewals.  That said, EBITDA is the logical call from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: Six renewals have slipped by since the only (7/2) favourite obliged in this event via the last eleven contests. That said, nne of the relevant winners scored at a top price of 10/1.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

3/23—Ambitious Icarus (good – good to soft – soft)

1/5—Coiste Bodhar (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Nottingham card on Wednesday - followed by 2017 stats at the track and profit/loss to level stakes:

4 runners—John Gosden (3/18 – loss of 4 points)

3—Michael Appleby (7/57 – loss of 9 points)

3—Ralph Beckett (2/10 +4)

3—Scott Dixon (4/12 +32)

3—Mick Easterby (2/17 – loss of 6 points)

3—John Gallagher (1/7 +4)

3—William Haggas (2/11 +3)

2—Karl Burke (2/21 +13)

2—Roger Charlton (0/6)

2—Clive Cox (6/22 +2)

2—Keith Dalgleish (0/1)

2—David Evans (2/18 – loss of 7 points)

2—Richard Guest (0/20)

2—Roger Varian (4/23 – loss of 13 points)

2—Ed Walker (0/10)

2—Ian Williams (0/10)

+ 45 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

85 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £369.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Musselburgh: £641.30 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Kempton: £60.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 16th October

WINDSOR - OCTOBER 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £68.50 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 7 (La Belle Maison), 5 (Adulate) & 4 (Aquadabra)

Leg 2 (2.30): 7 (Garrick) & 5 (Sparte Quercus)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (All Out), 5 (Desert Spirit) & 4 (Convinced)

Leg 4 (3.30): 8 (Clef), 9 (Sandy Shores) & 4 (Killay)

Leg 5 (4.00): 2 (Zeelander) & 6 (Miss Liguria)

Leg 6 (4.30): 4 (Paddy Power), 13 (Abiento) & 7 (Buccaneers Vault)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Four of the six Placepot positions have been claimed by horses carrying a minimum burden of 9-2, stats which include both (16/1 & 7/1) winners.  It’s (arguably) worth noting that Richard Fahey saddles more runners here at Windsor today (five in total) that he has done all season, whereby LA BELLE MAISON might have enough about her to win at the fourth time of asking in a two-year-old handicap which should not prove difficult to secure.  Paul Hanagan has made the long trip down to Windsor which is also worth noting, given that the stable has 13 runners spread across the country this afternoon.  The pick of opposition from the ‘superior’ sector of the weights (albeit via a brief trend) should prove to be ADULATE and AQUADABRA, given that any value in the price of Global Exceed has long since departed.

Favourite factor: Both favourites to date have finished out with the washing.

 

2.30: Three and four-year-olds have equally split the eight renewals of this event to date, whilst five of the last six winners carried 8-13 to more to victory. John Gosden’s Galileo colt GARRICK should follow up his debut Newcastle victory successfully if adapting to turf.  It took time for the penny to drop at Gosforth Park but distancing himself from the runner up to good effect inside the final furlong, GARRICK made a pleasing enough debut to suggest that another win is on the cards in this grade/company.  SPARTE QUERCUS has offered plenty of consistent form thus far and we can expect Ed Dunlop’s raider to gain another Placepot position, probably without winning on this occasion.  The reserve nomination is award to the only course winner in the race, namely Grapevine.

Favourite factor: Level stake investors would have gained five points to date by backing the market leaders in this event. Four of the eight favourites have finished in the frame (exact science) thus far.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/1—Grapevine (good)

 

3.00: Richard Hannon’s only two runners on the card clash in the same race, with his debut Nottingham winner ALL OUT joined by stable companion CONVINCED who is an Invincible Spirit newcomer.  Richard should snare a Placepot position at the very least between this pair, though I will add DESERT TRIP from David Menuisier’s yard for ‘insurance’ purposes.  David does well with his small string of runners with plenty of his juveniles having shown ability this term.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.  That said, you might like to look at the following facts because as far as I can determine, this is (in principle) the same race as has been the case for many years, given that the powers that be only deem this to be a new event because of the novice prefix which I have spouted on about for far too long this season.  It is (simply) your choice if you believe my figures or their non-existent ones! 11 of the 21 favourites have secured Placepot positions during the extended study period, whilst eight of the last thirteen contests have fallen the way of market leaders.  The last fourteen winners have produced a top priced gold medallist of 10/1.

 

3.30: All four winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-1 via three renewals which in theory eliminates eight of the ten horses in the handicap.  The pick of the two qualifiers on this occasion appears to be the fast ground course winner SANDY SHORES, though the one exception to my trend with a chance here is CLEF who saddled by the astute Richard Fahey who rarely misses a trick.  Richard saddled last year’s winner off a similar mark and with three of the four contests having fallen to three-year-olds, I expect the ratio to be extended here.  That all said, Eve Johnson Houghton has enjoyed a fabulous season and the chance for KILLAY to secure a Placepot position is there for all to see despite the negative weight trend.

Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (one 5/1 winner) via four contests thus far.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/6—Fastnet Spin (soft)

1/6—Sandy Shores (good to firm)

 

4.00: Nine of the thirteen runners carry 8-13 or more, as have the last seven winners of this contest.  The last six runners saddled by Roger Varian have been beaten which is a rare (negative) stat to offer these days as far as the popular trainer is concerned.  Roger should put that run to an end here with his only runner on the card, namely ZEELANDER who looks to be tailor made for his first attempt in a handicap.  My eye is also drawn to MISS LIGURIA who is given a chance to put a beaten favourite effort behind her at potentially rewarding odds.  The general 14/1 quote this morning make plenty of appeal albeit from a win perspective, ZEELANDER is the undoubted call.

Favourite factor: Two winning favourites have been recorded during the last decade, with nine of the ten gold medallists have been returned at a top price of 10/1.

 

4.30:  Four-year-olds have won six of the last 13 renewals and it defied belief that there was only one vintage representative twelve months ago! Upwards and onward by informing that there are three such creatures potentially facing the starter today, the pick of which appears to be PADDY POWER. Ed Walker saddles another each way type on the card in ABIENTO (Miss Liguria in the previous race is also a stable contender at the meeting), whilst BUCCANEERS VAULT completes my trio against the remaining twelve entries.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won via 20 renewals, whilst six other market leaders additionally secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Bahamian Dollar (good to firm)

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1/1—Abiento (good to firm

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday followed by their ratios at the track this season + profit/losses accrued:

5 runners—Richard Fahey (0/4)

4—Ed Dunlop (0/18)

3—Andrew Balding (3/25 – loss of 9 points)

3—Luca Cumani (0/4)

3—David Evans (5/66 – loss of 34 points)

2—Mick Channon (1/22 – loss of 18 points)

2—Charlie Fellows (2/13 +1)

2—John Gosden (4/15 – loss of 3 points)

2—Richard Hannon (14/63 +5)

2—Charlie Hills (3/25 – loss of 7 points)

2—Stuart Kittow (0/1)

2—George Margarson (1/6 – loss of 2 points)

2—David Menuisier (No previous runners this season)

2—Paul Midgley (No previous runners this season)

2—Gary Moore (0/18)

2—Amanda Perrett (1/13 – loss of 4 points)

2—Brendan Powell (1/20 – loss of 7 points)

2—John Ryan (0/6)

2—Marcus Tregoning (1/6 – loss of 2 points)

2—Ed Walker (8/27 +9)

+ 45 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

93 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Musselburgh: £174.00 – 7 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 4 unplaced

Yarmouth: £67.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 9th October

PONTEFRACT - OCTOBER 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £76.90 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 8 (Eyecatcher) & 2 (Austrian School)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Rastacap) & 1 (Camacho Chief)

Leg 3 (2.55): 4 (Mushaired), 3 (Me Too Nagasaki) & 1 (The Grape Escape)

Leg 4 (3.25): 1 (Transpennine Star), 3 (Gran Maestro) & 2 (La Fritillaire)

Leg 5 (3.55): 12 (Mr Cool Cash), 2 (Working Class) & 8 (Beverley Bullet)

Leg 6 (4.25): 5 (Duke’s Girl), 2 (Miramar) & 3 (Snookered)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: The only money in the dead of night has been for the Simon Crisford trained EYECATCHER and to a lesser degree AUSTRIAN SCHOOL representing Mark Johnston.  Richard Hannon only saddles two runners on the card and though probably no match for the first named pair, BOMBSHELL BAY might sneak a place at a double figure price on behalf of the yard.

Favourite factor: This opening event is a new race on the Pontefract card.

 

2.25: 12 of the last 15 winners have carried weights of 8-12 or more which suggests that the bottom four horses (of six) in the handicap can be eliminated from our enquiries, given that FEEBS is ridden by seven pound claimer Harrison Shaw. This fits into my plan anyway, as RASTACAP and COMACHE CHIEF were always going to be short listed before I looked up the stats for the contest.

Favourite factor: The successful 2/1 market leader four years ago was the first to score in 15 years, whilst eight ’jollies’ had secured toteplacepot positions in the process before three of the last five favourites finished out with the washing.

 

2.55:  Seven of the last eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-4 and at 5/1 at the time of writing, Richard Fahey’s soft ground course winner MUSHAIRED could be viewed as an each way ‘bet to nothing’, especially if all eight runners stand their ground.  Jeremy Noseda has sent ME TOO NAGASAKI on a long journey all alone in his horsebox, which suggests that this Iffraaj colt (winner on heavy ground) will go close to winning.  That said, Richard Hannon’s other runners on the card is THE GRAPE ESCAPE who cannot be left out of the Placepot equation.  All three horses mentioned in despatches hail from the superior weight sector according to the relevant trend.

Favourite factor: Just three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last 20 years, whilst ‘only’ ten of the 21 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions.  That said, the biggest priced winners during the last six year was returned at just 11/2.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/1—Mushaired (soft)

 

3.25: LA FRITILLAIRE returns to defend his crown and with the ground in his favour, 14/1 will not be his price on Monday, on that we can be sure.  Whether James Given’s five-year-old will be able to follow up his latest course victory remains to be seen as he has only put back to back victories together once via his five wins to date.  TRANSPENNINE STAR was thwarted by the minimum margin by the first named raider the last day and thanks to a claimer on board, the Michael Dods top-weight meets the rival on almost the same terms.  Money for GRAN MAESTRO would give the race a different look completely though as regular readers know, it makes little difference to yours truly who retires to the bar in double quick time in these repetitive staying races at Pontefract.  Whose turn is it to win today?

Favourite factor: The two inaugural joint (7/2) favourites both finished out of the frame before last year’s 2/1 market leader was beaten by a head.  Both winners to date were returned at 14/1.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

2/6—La Fritillaire (good to soft & soft)

1/1—Lady Of Yue (good)

2/29—Riptide (good & good to firm)

2/19—Tuscan Gold (good & good to firm)

2/20—Madam Lilibet (soft & heavy)

 

3.55: MR COOL CASH won one of the two divisions of this event last year though that said, Richard Guest’s five year-old has won only one of his subsequent 19 starts, albeit of today’s mark of 66.  Somehow or another, all seventeen potential runners have stood their ground thus far, though as I am writing this before stable staff have woken up, there is plenty of time from that scenario to change.  Hopefully four places will be up for grabs (don’t bet on it) though either way, my Placepot trio is completed by WORKING CLASS and BEVERLEY BULLET.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites (via three renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, stats which include one (11/4**) winner.

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

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2/14—Kiwi Bay (2 x good to firm)

1/3—Beverley Bullet (soft)

1/3—Mr Cool Cash (good to soft)

2/10—Trinity Star (good & good to firm)

1/3—Ravenhoe (good to firm)

 

4.25: Six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones and the pick of the relevant seven entries will hopefully prove to be DUKE’S GIRL, MIRAMAR and SNOOKERED.  That said, Cornerstone Lad sits just 16 ounces below the superior weight sector and there will be worse 10/1 chances contesting races at Pontefract Park this afternoon I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: The ten favourites have secured an aggregate of three gold and two silver medals to date whilst gaining toteplacepot positions in the process. Three of the last five winners have scored at 25/1-14/1-10/1.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Pontefract card on Monday followed by their rations at the track this season + level stake profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Richard Fahey (9/75 – loss of 23 points)

5—Mark Johnston (6/43 – loss of 24 points)

4—Michael Dods (1/26 – loss of 9 points)

4—David O’Meara (8/43 +1)

3—Tim Easterby (8/40 +4)

3—Micky Hammond (2/25 – loss of 7 points)

2—Karl Burke (2/22 – loss of 15 points)

2—Mick Easterby (4/21 +4)

2—Brian Ellison (1/14 – loss of 9 points)

2—Les Eyre (1/12 – loss of 7 points)

2—Richard Guest (2/14 +17)

2—Richard Hannon (1/1 +3)

2—Michael Scudamore (0/4)

2—Richard Whitaker (6/10 +24)

+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

70 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Salisbury: £20.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Windsor: £8.10 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Musselburgh: This is a new meeting on the fixture calendar

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 1st October

EPSOM – OCTOBER 1

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £274.10 (7 favourites - 1 winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Epsom: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 4 (Pheonix Lightning), 7 (Lexington Grace) & 3 (Kimifive)

Leg 2 (2.40): 1 (Dee Ex Bee), 3 (Regimented) & 6 (Bowditch)

Leg 3 (3.15): 6 (Native Prospect), 5 (Sparte Quercus) & 2 (Emenem)

Leg 4 (3.45): 5 (Lord Glenaghcastle), 6 (Heatongrad) & 3 (Swiss Cross)

Leg 5 (4.20): 8 (Hatsaway), 7 (Golden Wolf) & 6 (Fair Power)

Leg 6 (4.55): 1 (Ajman King)

Suggested stake: 243 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: Five of the seven gold medallists have carried a minimum burden of nine stokes in the race to date, statistics which eliminate the bottom five horses in the handicap, reducing the potential numbers from twelve down to seven. LEXINGTON GRACE would have qualified bang on the nine stone mark but for a seven pound claimer being booked to ride.  The move by Richard Hannon basically puts a line through the course and distance winner from a win perspective from my viewpoint, though I find it difficult to envisage Richard’s Sir Prancealot filly missing out on a Placepot position.  Others to consider over breakfast/Sunday brunch include KIMIFIVE and PHEONIX LIGHTNING.

Favourite factor: Seven of the ten favourites (via seven renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include four winners.

Record of course winner in the field:

1/1—Lexington Grace (good to firm)

 

2.40: John Gosden saddles his first runner in this event since winning the race with Cloud Nine three years ago who was sent off as the 4/6 favourites.  John’s raider BOWDITCH is on offer at 16/1 right across the board at the time of writing which of some interest from an each way perspective, given that John might have had his mind on matters across the English Channel when making his declarations of Friday.  As far as likelier winners is concerned, DEE EX BEE and REGIMENTED are added into the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: Four of the last ten favourites have prevailed, the biggest priced winner during the period being a 9/2 chance.

 

3.15: Five of the eight winners (including four of the last five gold medallists) have carried a maximum burden of 9-1, statistics which bring the market leaders NATIVE PROSPECT and SPARTE QUERCUS into play from a Placepot perspective at the very least.  Money has arrived for EMENEM in the dead of night and as the only course winner around this undulating circuit, Simon Dow’s three-year-old Sir Percy representative is catching the eye.  You might remember that the sire had his day ‘in the sun’ at this venue eleven years ago!

Favourite factor: Four of the eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three successful (7/2-10/3-11/4) favourites.

Record of course winner in the third race:

1/3—Emenem (good)

 

3.45: Eight of the last eleven winners have carried a maximum burden of 8-13 and I will include both of this year’s qualifiers in my permutation, namely HEATONGAD and course and distance winner LORD CLENAGHCASTLE.  Gary Moore’s latter named raider has won on good to soft ground around here already whereby his 15/2 quote makes for interesting reading this morning.  SWISS CROSS is the potential party pooper in the line up however, with David Elsworth’s Frankel colt catching my attention on just his fourth assignment to date.  The fact that the Godolphin representative gained his only success thus far on yielding ground adds icing on the potential cake.

Favourite factor: The top priced winner was returned at just 13/2 until a 25/1 chance in 2012 upset the apple-cart.  Things have subsequently returned to ‘normal’ thankfully, albeit an 8/1 chance took the spoils twelve months ago.  Two clear market leaders have scored via nine renewals during the last 12 years alongside a 4/1 joint favourite.  Seven of the 13 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Record of course winners in the fourth contest:

1/1—Fujaira Bridge (good)

1/6—Lord Clenaghcastle (good to soft)

 

4.20: Local representative HATSAWAY is my each way bet of the day and as the only course winner here with the word ‘soft’ featuring in the relevant going description, I believe that Pat Phelan has a half decent chance of gaining another victory here at Epsom on a day in which his runners have run well in the past. Pat hat has saddled three winners on the corresponding card in recent years, two of them being sent off in double figures whereby the 20/1 quote about the speculative selection does not frighten me off in any shape or form.  It’s worth noting that HATSAWAY is Pat’s only runner on the card which is an unusual scenario relating to the local trainer.  I will admit to being a little wary of the declarations of both GOLDEN WOLF and FAIR POWER who represent the three-year-old vintage, which has produced five of the last eight winners of the contest.

Favourite factor: Five of the twelve favourites have finished in the frame, stats which include three successful market leaders.  Whatever the outcome, it takes a brave punter to take restricted odds in an apprentice event around these twists and turns on ground that runs away from the far rail at the business end of the contest.

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

2/2—C’Est No Mour (2 x good)

1/3—Fair Power (good)

1/1—Hatsaway (good to soft)

1/5—Cordite (good to firm)

 

4.55: Whichever way you roll the dice, AJMAN KING is the horse to beat in the Placepot finale and having ‘over indulged’ in the first five races on the card from a Placepot perspective, I am making Roger Varian’s Lope De Vega colt a banker in the last leg of our favourite wager.  Andrea Atzeni’s mount won’t mind the conditions and of course, opting for a hot favourite in the last leg of our wager gives us a great deal of scope of ‘laying off’ if results have gone our way earlier on the card, especially if there is a decent dividend in the making.  At around the 2/7 mark to reach the frame I’ll wager, it does not take a mathematician to evaluate the ‘bet to nothing’ option to take if we are live going into the finale.

Favourite factor: Seven of the nine favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include five winners.  That said, the 1/3 market leader three years ago was beaten in a four runner 'win only' event, a result which was predicted in this column.

 

All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Epsom card on Sunday followed by their ratios at the track this season + relevant profit/loss figures:

5 runners—Jim Boyle (1/16 – loss of 10 points)

5—Sylvester Kirk (1/13 – loss of 9 points)

4—Richard Hannon (3/21 – loss of 6 points)

3—Richard Fahey (1/24 – loss of 16 points)

3—Richard Hughes (1/3 +2)

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3—Gary Moore (1/14 – loss of 6 points)

2—Andrew Balding (3/14 +15)

2—Ralph Beckett (0/10)

2—David Brown (0/4)

2—David Elsworth (0/2)

2—Mark Johnston (6/30 – slight profit)

2—David O’Meara (2/13 – loss of 2 points)

2—Joseph Tuite (0/1)

2—Roger Varian (2/4 +11)

+ 21 trainers with one entry

60 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Musselburgh: £15.00 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 4 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 8th September

HAYDOCK - SEPTEMBER 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £289.00 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Haydock: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (Cavatina) & 1 (Amazing Michele)

Leg 2 (2.25): 14 (Pulitzer) & 6 (Forever In Love)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Manshood), 3 (Hyperfocus) & 4 (Russian Realm)

Leg 4 (3.35): 7 (Musharrif), 8 (Elysian Flyer) & 1 (Rasheeq)

Leg 5 (4.10): 3 (Calder Prince), 6 (Noble Peace) & 7 (My Amigo)

Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Always Resolute), 2 (High On Light) & 1 (Intense Tango)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: AMAZING MICHELE has been the one for some money overnight given the (seemingly inevitable) withdrawal from what was a ‘dead eight’ event.  Alan Bailey is not particularly noted for his two-year-old winners, though with four of his last nine runners having won, the chance for FLEETING FREEDOM is also respected.  That said, CAVATINA ran well at the first time of asking at Kempton and any amount of usual progress (whatever that is in the juvenile sector) should enable the William Haggas raider to at least snare one of the two available Placepot positions.

Favourite factor: The first two races on the Haydock card are novice events, whereby no history to the contests is in place.

 

2.25: The 11/4 trade press about the chance of Sir Michael Stoute’s Dutch Art filly FOREVER IN LOVE looks fanciful with 15/8 likely to be nearer the returned starting price from my viewpoint.  The dual beaten favourite (from as many assignments thus far) will be expected to score here in the Cheveley Park colours and if the difference between the two prices mentioned in the open sentence don’t look too far removed from each other, the differential is roughly the same as a horse being back in from 9/1 to 9/2.  Hugo Palmer scored with both runners at the track yesterday and stable representative PULITZER appears to be a live threat to Richard Kingscote’s mount.

Favourite factor: The first two races on the Haydock card are novice events, whereby no history to the contests is in place.

 

3.00: Nine of the ten winners have carried 9-2 or more to victory thus far, whilst four-year-olds have claimed five of the last eight contests.  Vintage representatives have also secured 13 of the last 20 available toteplacepot positions whereby MANSHOOD (the only runner with ticks in both of the trend boxes) is the first name on the team sheet.  Paul Midgley was (unusually) not represented at Haydock yesterday but comes to the races with three chances today and MANSHOOD should reach the frame for ‘Potters’.  Definite threats lurk in the murky waters however, the pick of which should prove to be stable companion RUSSIAN REALM (especially if the ground softens up) and Hugo Palmer’s three-year-old raider HYPERFOCUS.

Favourite factor: Five of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (three winners) though rogue gold medallists have reared their ugly (25/1-14/1-9/1) heads along the way.

Course winners in the third race:

1/2—Russian Realm (soft)

1/3—Englishman (soft)

1/3—Cosmic Chatter (good to firm)

 

3.35: All eight winners have carried a maximum weight of 9-3, whilst four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared the last four renewals. No four-year-old figures in the ‘superior’ weight sector this time, whilst the pair of the three relevant five-year-old raiders appear to be MUSHARRIF and ELYSIAN FLYER.  Rachel Richardson aids and abets the chance of the top weight RASHEEQ given that Tim Easterby’s four-year-old representative now (potentially) carries just 16 ounces over the weight barrier thanks to Rachel’s claim, the pilot continuing to represent great value for her three pound allowance.

Favourite factor: Four of the nine favourites (via eight renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two successful market leaders.

Course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/3—Major Pusey (good to firm)

1/1—Four Dragons (good)

 

4.10: Four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared the six renewals to date, with five of the six gold medallists have carried a minimum burden of 9-1.  Tom Dascombe snared a 22/1 double at the course yesterday whilst one of his other two runners on the card was only two lengths adrift of adding another 95 points to that return.  Tom has five chances to enhance his good record at Haydock this afternoon, the best of which could prove to be CALDER PRINCE with the ground seemingly coming right for the four-year-old Dark Angel gelding.  That said, Henry Candy also continues to send out regular winners just now, whereby NOBLE PEACE representative a definite threat.  Providing not too much more falls up the M6 corridor today, MY AMIGO could outrun his 8/1 quote (right across the board) if looking race fit in the parade ring following a five month break from the racecourse.

Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (including winners at 7/2, 7/2 & 2/1), though search parties are still out looking for the other 5/1 market leader.

Course winners in the fifth event:

2/5—Calder Prince (good & soft)

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4.45: Four-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals of the Placepot finale and HIGH ON LIGHT has the best chance of the quartet of relevant declarations this time around.  David Barron has retained the services of Rachel Richardson to negate the majority of the four pound hike in the weights and the bandwagon looks set to go close again on this grade/company.  Fellow course and distance winners INTENSE TANGO and ALWAYS RESOLUTE boast similar claims according to the gospel of yours truly and but for having been away yesterday, I think I would have latched on to Brian Ellison’s 11/2 winner on Thursday.  Brian saddles ALWAYS RESOLUTE here having gone on the (rare) missing list at Haydock yesterday when his only runner of the day scored under the NH code at Sedgefield.  I guess it’s worth noting that Brian’s only other runner on the card runs off bottom weight in this event, namely Nordic Combined.  A (minimum stake) saver might be worth considering on Josephine Gordon’s mount, especially as the only victory gained to date by the Haafhd gelding was recorded under soft conditions.

Favourite factor: Four of the six market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include two (7/2 & 3/1) winners.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/5—Intense Tango (good & soft)

1/1—High On Light (good to soft)

2/4—Always Resolute (good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Haydock card on Friday, followed by their ratios at the track on Thursday + level stakes profits where applicable:

5 runners—Karl Burke (No runners at Haydock yesterday)

5—Tom Dascombe (2/4 + 18)

5—Richard Fahey (0/3)

3—David Barron (No runners)

3—Ruth Carr (No runners)

3—Tim Easterby (0/2)

3—Paul Midgley (No runners)

2—Robyn Brisland (No runners)

2—Brian Ellison (No runners)

2—James Fanshawe (No runners)

2—Roger Fell (0/2)

2—Charlie Fellowes (0/1)

2—William Haggas (No runners)

2—Michael Mullineaux (0/1)

2—Hugo Palmer (2/2 +6)

2—Derek Shaw (No runners)

+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

74 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ascot: £250.40 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Musselburgh: £46.50 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: £26.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Newcastle: £3,712.50 – Only one (6/4*) in the frame (No winners)

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday August 31

MUSSELBURGH - AUGUST 31

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £36.00 (6 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh: 

Leg 1 (1.30): 3 (Debawtry) & 4 (Me Before You)

Leg 2 (2.00): 10 (Ray Purchase), 1 (Burnieboozle) & 4 (Placebo Effect)

Leg 3 (2.30): 1 (Ventura Gold), 6 (Foxy Lady) & 4 (Claramara)

Leg 4 (3.00): 1 (Raselasad), 2 (The Stalking Moon) & 4 (Our Charlie Brown)

Leg 5 (3.30): 3 (Erinyes) & 5 (Bonnie Arlene)

Leg 6 (4.00): 2 (Peach Melba & 3 (Tirania)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.30: Anyone who is contemplating having a bet at Musselburgh today should look at the recent trainer stats down at the foot of the column.  I’m not saying that you should not play but if doing so, keep stakes on the low side until gaining confidence from results.  DEBAWTRY was withdrawn from a race at Carlisle on Tuesday, presumably on account of the yielding ground at the Cumbrian circuit.  The weather forecast looks set fair for the Edinburgh region today whereby David O’Meara’s raider could (perhaps should) go one better after a half decent effort on her first day at school at Beverley two weeks ago.  David’s Camacho filly should not be hard pressed to gain a Placepot position at the very least, with the owners appearing to have most to fear from stable companion ME BEFORE YOU.  Any money (however unlikely) for SITSI might be worth following, albeit to minimum stakes. Bryan Smart enjoyed a fine record with his two-year-olds here at Musselburgh in days of old, his record in Edinburgh with juveniles being unmatched by any trainer at any track both sides of Hadrian’s Wall during a lengthy period of time.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings.

 

2.00: Although still available in a couple of places (very) early doors this morning, the trade press quote of 8/1 about RAY PURCHASE might be difficult to obtain when things liven up later today, should that be the case on a less than inspiring day of sport.  BURNIEBOOZLE makes some appeal from the top of the handicap I guess, whilst beaten favourite PLACEBO EFFECT cannot be entirely ignored in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have prevailed thus far.

 

2.30:  Although his strike rate is not great at present, Richard Fahey is, at least, saddling winners just now whereby the 10/1 (across the board) quote about VENTURA GOLD is a win and place shout to consider, albeit in limited terms.  FOXY LADY and CLARAMARA are feared most.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous event on the card, whereby the same (brief) details apply.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/6—Kikini Bamalaam (good to firm)

 

3.00: A non-runner would put this event into a serious (win only) state of affairs and from a Placepot perspective, any prayers should be offered up immediately though that said of course, a decent dividend would surely be in the offing if we have to name the winner later today.  You have an edge over yours truly obviously, with the rest of the morning to see how the race develops from a market viewpoint though at present, I am favouring RASELASAD, THE STALKING MOON and OUR CHARLIE BROWN though without a great deal of conviction.

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Musselburgh card but judged on the lack of interest from trainers, there might be another new contest twelve months hence.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/2—The Stalking Moon (soft)

2/2—Our Charlie Brown (2 x good to firm)

 

3.30: Archie Watson has won with three of the last four runners he has saddled whereby the chance of ERINYES is greatly respected.  Having contested a Listed event at ‘headquarters’ last time out, this race should be there for the taking on her handicap debut, though cheek-pieces rarely (if ever) inspire confidence from my perspective.  Paddy Power stand alone at 4/1 about the chance of BONNIE ARLENE which looks something of a brave call given the Sandown victory on her penultimate start.  That said, I guess the firm is looking at a disappointing effort the last day.

Favourite factor: The third new race on the card.

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Record of the course winners in the fifth event:

1/4—Lively Fella (good)

2/8—Wor Lass (good & good to firm)

 

4.00: Stan James and Bet365 are swerving PEACH MELBA at the time of writing, only offering the projected market leader at even money when 6/5 is available on a few boards elsewhere.  The differential might not seem worth noting, though the difference in percentage terms equates to a horse drifting to from 4/1 to 6/1.  Mark Johnston’s Dream Ahead filly encounters fast ground here looking for a four-timer, whereby I’ve a feeling that the afore-mentioned companies will have to be a little braver to get the favourite into their books as the day pans out.  TIRANIA would appear to be the danger on all known form, especially with William Haggas boasting a 42% strike rate in Edinbrugh these last five years (via eight winners), albeit his two raiders this term have returned home having been beaten.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites has snared a Placepot position thus far, achieving that record when winning at odds of 13/8 two years ago.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Musselburgh card on Thursday – followed by their recent stats + profits/losses accrued:

9 runners—Keith Dalgleish (2/25 - since August 25)

5—Tim Easterby (1/13 - last 2 days)

4—Richard Fahey (4/22 - last 3 days)

4—Mark Johnston (1/21 - last 4 days)

3—Jim Goldie (2/16 – since August 24)

3—Richard Guest (last 19 runners beaten)

3—David O’Meara (6/32 – since August 26)

3—John Quinn (4/14 – since August 25)

3—Kevin Ryan (2/18 – since August 25)

2—Tony Coyle (2/53 during July & August)

2—Ann Duffield (1/10 – since August 23)

2—Dianne Sayer (0/19 this month)

2—Tracy Waggott (1/29 this month)

2—Noel Wilson (2/5 – last 2 days)

+ 15 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

62 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bath: £73.10 – 9 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Sedgefield: £68.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Chelmsford: £50.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £100.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday August 30

CATTERICK - AUGUST 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £29.80 (6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Catterick: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Cool Strike) & 4 (The Auld Hoose)

Leg 2 (2.20): 5 (Nuns Walk), 4 (La Sioux), 3 (Fairy Lights) & 2 (Eponina)

Leg 3 (2.50): 1 (Bulas Belle), 3 (Italian Riviera) & 2 (Ingleby Hollow)

Leg 4 (3.20): 2 (Magical Effect), 3 (Shouranour) & 8 (Tadaawol)

Leg 5 (3.50): 1 (Salvatore Fury), 3 (Searanger) & 6 (Melaniemillie)

Leg 6 (4.20): 4 (State Residence) & 1 (Willbeme)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Any trainer who can record a 28.2% strike via 71 juvenile runners during a five year period is worth his weight in gold in the two-year-old sector, with Richard Fahey able to boast that claim at Catterick in recent times.  Richard saddles THE AULD HOOSE on this occasion, though the Zebedee colt will probably have to play second fiddle (at best) with COOL SPIRIT having been declared to run by James Given after a couple of half decent efforts in (seemingly) better company than the Swiss Spirit colt faces here.  That said, anyone backing the 2/5 favourite might need his/her ‘bumps felt’ as my old nan used to say because until a horse has actually won, I would never entertain an odds on quote, let alone one as short as this. 2/5 represents a 71.4% probability factor in percentage terms so unless you believe that the February foal has at least a 72% chance of scoring, you should leave well alone. That’s the numbers dealt with as such, the rest is up to you.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/5 favourite duly obliged.

 

2.20: Before jumping on the Roger Varian bandwagon, it’s worth noting that the trainer has ‘only’ won with one of his five three-year-old runners at Catterick during the last five years.  That is not a slur on Roger’s ability as regular readers will testify, it’s just that we need to explore the avenues open to us before we simply wade in believing a Newmarket visitor simply has to turn up to snare the swag.  Truth is that this race has dissolved to down to a win only affair and with nothing much between the quartet from my viewpoint, the answer (from a Placepot perspective at least) is to simply include all four runners before retiring to the bar, in the hope that the horse with the least number of Placepot units prevails.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/9 market leader obliged, giving punters a near 5/2 double on the opening two races on the card.  How will the relevant favourites run this time around, if a clear market leader can be found in this contest?

 

2.50: Nine of the 12 winners have been burdened with a minimum weight of 9-7 whereby BULAS BELLE and ITALIAIN RIVIERA should claim a toteplacepot position or two between them, the duo being listed in marginal order of preference.  This is not a race demanding too much of our time because it rather resembles a graded greyhound event whereby sometimes it seems the outcome is defined by whose turn is it to win on this occasion.  David O’Meara’s horse are running better now whereby for the first time this season, I would also offer a tentative chance to INGLEBY HOLLOW.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won since the inaugural running back in 2005 during which time, a top priced winner of 6/1 having emerged.  Seven of the thirteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of course winners in the third contest:

2/6—Bulas Belle (good to soft & soft)

1/2—Italian Riviera (soft)

1/6—Cavalieri (good)

 

3.20: The ‘make up’ of this event has changed (see favourite factor below) though the inclusion of three course winners under much softer conditions still makes the contest difficult to call. MAGICAL EFFECT is the horse for money this morning, though bits and pieces of win and place support for SHOURANOUR is emerging at the time of writing, presumably because one of his six victories to date was (at least) gained on fast ground, albeit the other five successes were registered of good to soft/soft going.  TADAAWOL has also run well enough under today’s projected conditions, despite the fact that his course and distance success three week ago was recorded on soft going.

Favourite factor: Punters had gone through a lean period when this race was confined to three-year-olds in the past whereby the inclusion of older contenders (creating a ‘new race’ as such) might offer investors a better chance of success.  We shall see.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event on the card:

2/3—Shouranour (2 x soft)

1/1—Jacquard (good to firm)

1/2—Johnny Cavagin (soft)

1/3—Tadaawol (soft)

2/3—Bahamian Bird (2 x good to firm)

 

3.50: I made the point on my Twitter page yesterday that Ladbrokes were out on a limb about a horse which although beaten yesterday was backed down at all rates making the relevant wager ‘ a bet to nothing’ via the exchanges.  The same scenario is surely in place here with the magic sign chalking up odds of 11/2 about SALVATORE FURY from the top of the handicap.  As short as 7/2 in a place, I expect the SP to be 4/1 (thereabouts) unless non-runners ruin the market of course (UPDATE: SF is on the drift at 8.30 this morning).  Either way, supporters of the Keith Dalglish raider will surely get a decent run for their investments, possibly having most to fear from the likes of SEARANGER and MEANIEMILLIE.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have missed out on Placepot positions thus far.

Record of course winners in the fifth race:

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1/1—Salvatore Fury (good)

1/6—Indian Pursuit (soft)

2/5—Seamanger (2 x good to firm)

1/5—Melaniemillie (soft)

1/9—Debden (good)

 

4.20: The second heat of the previous contest rests between STATE RESIEDENCE and WILLBEME from my perspective, the pair being listed in order of preference at the time of writing.  There has been plenty of overnight money for the first named David O’Meara representative whilst WILLBEME has slipped down to a favourable mark which three pound claimer Clifford Lee extends.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card, where the same stats apply.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/5—Spirit Of Zebedee (good to firm)

2/14—Bold Spirit (good to soft & soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Catterick card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—David O’Meara (3/24 – loss of 15 points)

4—Ruth Carr (8/28 +14)

4—Scott Dixon (1/19 – loss of 15/1)

4—Tim Easterby (3/23 – loss of 3 points)

3—Tony Coyle (0/3)

3—Richard Fahey (5/32 – loss of 2 points)

3—Mark Johnston (7/21 +11)

3—John Quinn (2/30 – loss of 24 points)

2—Robert Cowell (0/4)

2—Roger Fell (2/12 – slight loss)

2—Rebecca Menzies (3/18 +15)

2—Paul Midgley (1/10 – loss of 7 points)

2—Kevin Ryan (4/14 +11)

2—Brain Smart (0/5)

2—Ronald Thompson (No previous runners)

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

69 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Musselburgh: £360.20 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Kempton: £426.00 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Lingfield: £30.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Worcester: £30.40 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 11th August

NEWMARKET - AUGUST 11

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £341.60 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (5.30): 2 (Daybreak), 5 (Lady Godiva) & 6 (Ocala)

Leg 2 (6.05): 1 (Lexington Grace) & 4 (Kheleyf’s Girl)

Leg 3 (6.35): 5 (Old Persian), 6 (Rastrelli) & 12 (Vintager)

Leg 4 (7.05): 1 (Swilly Sunset) & 4 (Hard Toffee)

Leg 5 (7.35): 3 (Titi Makfi) & 4 (Seduce Me)

Leg 6 (8.05): 2 (Jordan Sport), 1 (Reputation) & 4 (Waqaas)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.30: DAYBREAK appears to set the standard here having finished fourth at Newbury under yielding conditions on her first day at school.  Beaten ‘only’ four lengths that day, Hughie Morrison can rightly expect some improvement and Adam Kirkby’s mount is a certainty for my Placepot mix at the very least.  Similarly, LADY GODIVA did not finish much further adrift on her debut at Ascot and with many of Richard Hannon’s youngsters seemingly need a run this term, Sean Levey’s mount could also take a hand in the finish.  For the record, the relevant sire Camelot has a soft ground winner to his name.  The pick of the newcomers will hopefully prove to be OCALA, though CAPESTHORNE was withdrawn from a race last week which looked tougher to win than this contest.  An interest start to the evening.

Favourite factor:  This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Newmarket on Friday evening.

 

6.05: The last sixteen winners of this juvenile selling event have been returned at odds of 7/1 or less, albeit just five successful favourites were recorded during the study period.  That said, market leaders come to the gig on a five timer on this occasion whereby the chance of LEXINGTON GRACE is very much respected.  Looking to have little or no chance in the Newbury’s ‘Super Sprint’ the last day, Silvestre De Sousa’s mount did precious little wrong on his previous assignments, having won on fast ground at Nottingham during the period.  I’m far from convinced that this seventh furlong will fully suit KHELEYF’S GIRL but other threats to the selection look thin on the ground.

Favourite factor:  Six favourites have won during the last nineteen years, whilst eleven of the twenty market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

 

6.35:  A race over this (seven furlong) trip for ‘babies’ which have not set foot on a racecourse inevitably draws the assessment that there will be an element of luck involved should any of us select the winner because aside from positive market activity, this looks to be a ‘pin job’ if ever there was one, especially with so many leading trainers involved.  That said, Charlie Appleby’s pair OLD PERSIAN and RASTRELLI have attracted support overnight, whilst each way money has also been recorded about VINTAGER which makes for interesting reading.

Favourite factor:  Ten clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last twenty years.  15 of the 21 market leaders have secured a toteplacepot position during the study period.  Last year’s 8/15 market leader  was beaten in a four runner ‘win only’ which contributed to the good Placepot dividend of £341.60.

 

7.05: 12 of the last 13 winners have carried weights of 9-0 or more, though just one horse is eliminated via the weight trend this time around. The hat trick achieved by SWILLY SUNSET has been gained under contrasting conditions whereby connections of his six rivals can gain little confidence from the prevailing soft ground.  Silvestre De Sousa is riding with tons of confidence right now (29% strike rate his last 22 winners) which can only aid and abet the chance of the projected favourite.  HARD TOFFEE is the marginal call of the opposition.

Favourite factor:  Six favourites have won via 16 renewals during the last 18 years, whilst 11 of the 19 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

 

7.35:  Three-year-olds have secured nine of the thirteen contests, though four-year-olds have fought back recently having won three of the last four renewals, with vintage representatives on a hat trick this time around.  The junior contingent should rule the waves here however, especially with strong northern challengers having been declared, namely TITI MAKFI and SEDUCE ME.  TIT MAKFI is a typically tough type from the Mark Johnston yard, whilst Karl Burke (SEDUCE ME) has been winning far more races south of Birmingham this season compared to recent seasons.  As an example, Karl has saddled six winners at Sandown & Windsor this season, compared to just three during the whole of 2016.

Favourite factor:  Nine renewals had slipped by without a successful market leader being recorded before the 5/4 jolly obliged three years ago, followed up by joint favourites filling the forecast positions twelve months on. That said, last year’s 15/8 market leader finished out with the washing. 11 of the last 12 gold medallists were returned at a top price of 8/1 alongside a 40/1 winner.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race:

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1/1—Red Tea (good to firm)

 

8.10: Red lights are flashing as I start looking at this event, especially as there has to be a chance that the five runner field will dissolve down to a ‘win only’ event.  The trade press 3/1 quote about JORDAN SPORT looks fanciful in the extreme with a full point (more with some firms) being lost via overnight support.  REPUTATION and WAQAAS will hopefuilly offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings in the finale.

Favourite factor:  One clear market leader and two joint favourites have scored during the last 20 years, whilst ten of the 24 market leaders have secured Placepot positions in the process. The last 16 winners have scored at 16/1-14/1-12/1-10/1-9/1-9/1-8/1-6/1-6/1-6/1-6/1-5/1-5/1-9/2-9/2***-2/1, with just the one (co) market leader being recorded.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Major Pusey (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Richard Hannon (6/47 – Profit of 10 points)

3—Charlie Appleby (10/32 – Profit of 2 points)

2—Marco Botti (3/8 – Profit of 5 points)

2—Anthony Carson (1/5 (Profit of 1 point)

2—David Elsworth (0/14)

2—David Evans (0/1)

2—Richard Fahey (2/27 – loss of 8 points)

2—Charlie Hills (1/33 – loss of 27 points)

2—Sir Michael Stoute (2/18 – loss of 11 points)

+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

46 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Brighton: £486.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Haydock: £399.10 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Musselburgh: £616.00 – 78 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £3.90 – 7 favourites – 4 winners & 3 placed

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 4th August

GOODWOOD – AUGUST 4

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £150.90 (7 favourites – 4 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (Lord Yeats), 2 (Frontiersman) & 7 (Second Step)

Leg 2 (2.25): 11 (Zainholm), 2 (Beat The Bank) & 5 (Forest Ranger)

Leg 3 (3.00): 22 (Masham Star), 7 (Tony Curtis) & 21 (Sir Roderic)

Leg 4 (3.35): 5 (Profitable) & 6 (Take Cover)

Leg 5 (4.10): 5 (Gift In Time), 11 (Milton Road) & 3 (Carouse)

Leg 6 (4.40): 16 (Tomyris), 13 (Cristal Fizz) & 6 (Sainted)

Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last sixteen renewals, whilst securing 14 of the last 28 available toteplacepot positions. Four-year-olds are around the 8/13 mark to extend their good run from a win perspective, via five representatives on this occasion.  LORD YEATS comes to the gig on a hat trick as a previous soft ground winner which suggests that P J McDonald’s should be the first name on the team sheet.  FRONTIERSMAN cannot be left out of the Placepot mix, whilst Roger Charlton’s first Goodwood runner of the week (SECOND STEP) will not mind the tacky conditions as much as some of the other declarations.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last 20 years, whilst 12 of the 22 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of course winners in the opening event: 

1/1—Poet’s Word (good to firm)

1/2—Second Step (good to firm)

 

2.25: I was far from certain about the ground for Sir Michael Stoute’s runner in the opening event (Poet’s Word) but ZAINHOLM should get through the sticky stuff well enough in this grade/company to go close.  The 11/2 quotes by PP & ‘Vic’ make some appeal for sure, albeit this is a tough event to assess.  It would be as well for all concerned if the remaining eight runners stand their ground and if so, BEAT THE BANK and FOREST RANGER would complete my trio against the other five contenders.  This pair met up at Newmarket last time out when Andrew Balding progressives Paco Boy gelding (Beat The Bank) won with plenty to spare.  This ground might just bring the pair closer together this afternoon.

Favourite factor: 12 of the last 22 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four winners.

 

3.00: Mark Johnston has saddled three of the last five winners of the contest when represented and his three-year-old raider MASHAM STAR is his only runner on this occasion.  It’s worth noting that MASHAM STAR is the only vintage raider in the field, given that junior representatives have won four of the last nine renewals.  Mark’s Lawman colt is proven under conditions whereby his 22/1 quote with Ladbrokes and Coral makes plenty of each way appeal.  25/1 about the chance for Sir Roderic (2/3 on soft ground) is also something of an insult from my viewpoint, whilst it’s worth noting that on a day which ‘Team Hannon’ has dominated (eight winners during the last six years), TONY CURTIS is their only runner on the card. 2/2 track stats also catch the eye about 28/1 chance GOSSIPING, albeit Gary Moore’s representative has no form on under these type of conditions.  That said, Gary remains unbeaten here this week following his 100/1 winner on the opening day of the meeting!

Favourite factor: Three favourites have prevailed in the last 20 years, whilst eleven market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Record of course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/3—Zhui Feng (good to firm)

2/2—Gossiping (good to firm & good)

 

3.35: It is impossible to ignore the win and place claims of TAKE COVER, the ten-year-old having snared two gold medals and one of the silver variety (at 20/1) during the last three renewals!  David Griffiths deserves particular credit for keeping the old boy in fine form, as advertised perfectly when his Singspiel gelding won on the Knavesmire last time out.  Whether David Allen’s mount will be competitive in these conditions remains unknown, though we are aware that connections of PROFITABLE have no such worries.  There will be worse outsiders on the day than YALTA I’ll wager, especially as the 40/1 chance stands at 2/2 on the track thus far, albeit both victories were gained on good ground.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have scored during the last 20 years, whilst eleven market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Record of course winners in the fourth race: 

1/2—Kachy (good)

2/4—Take Ciover (2 x good to firm)

2/2—Yalta (2 x good)

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4.10: The last 13 winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3, statistics which makes the task of Rufus King that much harder, given that Mark Johnston’ s raider is asked to give a minimum 18 pounds to his rivals.  The pick of the remaining ten contenders (at the time of writing) could prove to be GIFT IN TIME, CAROUSE and MILTON ROAD.  The latter named Mick Channon raider is on offer at 25/1 with Bet365 and ‘Vic’ this morning and being as short as 16/1 elsewhere. Those odds could (perhaps should) be accommodated to minimum stakes, especially with a 1/1 track record on good to soft ground under his belt.

Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders, one co and one joint favourite have scored during the study period, whilst 12 of the last 20 jollies have reached the frame. That said, Seven of the last 17 winners of this nursery event have scored at 25/1--20/1--20/1--16/1--12/1--10/1--10/1.

Record of course winners in the fifth event: 

1/1—Milton Road (good to soft)

 

4.40: Three-year-olds have won 14 of the last 20 renewals and vintage representatives are around the 10/11 mark to extend the good run before the form book is consulted, as long as further non-runners fail to rear their ugly heads before flag fall.  The pick of the relevant entries include TOMYRIS and CRISTAL FIZZ.  If the vintage trend is to be breached in the Placepot finale however, SAINTED is the likely spoiler from my viewpoint.  It’s interesting that William Haggas saddles the latter name pair offering a three and a four-year-old into the mix, given that four-year-olds have made something of a fightback having won four races during the last decade.  The reserve nomination is awarded to PERFECT ANGEL.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won during the last 20 years, whilst 12 of the 20 market leaders throughout the study period claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale: 

1/1—Al Jazi (good to firm)

1/1—Perfect Angel (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Represented winning trainers at Goodwood this week with their relevant number of runners on Friday:

2 winners—Richard Hannon (7/1 & 10/3*) – 1 runner at Goodwood today

2 winners—Mark Johnston (12/1 & 9/1) – 7 runners

2 winners—David Simcock (50/1 & 8/1) – 3 runners

1 winner—Charlie Appleby (5/2*) – 5 runners

1 winner—Andrew Balding (20/1) – 4 runners

1 winner—John Gosden (6/1) – 4 runners

1 winner—Gary Moore (100/1) – 1 runner

1 winner—Aidan O’Brien (10/11*) – 2 runners

1 winner—Sir Michael Stoute (7/4*) – 4 runners

1 winner—Roger Varian (15/2) – 3 runners

1 winner—Ian Williams (25/1) – 1 runner

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bath: £8.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 placed

Musselburgh: £57.30 – 6 favourites – No winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Newmarket: £31.80 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Thirsk: £59.80 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Bangor: £29.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday July 27

MUSSELBURGH - JULY 25

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £869.60 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 9 (Love To Rock), 6 (Joyful Star) & 1 (Adventureman)

Leg 2 (2.45): 1 (Footsteps Forever) & 2 (Dontgiveuponbob)

Leg 3 (3.15): 2 (Paddy Power), 1 (Royal Brace) & 4 (Rock Of America)

Leg 4 (3.45): 6 (Question Of Faith) & 4 (Traditional Dancer)

Leg 5 (4.15): 6 (Sunnua), 8 (Hamster Jam) & 4 (Donnelly’s Rainbow)

Leg 6 (4.45): 2 (Sebastian’s Wish) & 1 (Dubawi Fifty)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Musselburgh - five year corresponding study:

35 races – 11 winning favourites – 33/35 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £591.82

Highest dividend: £1747.00 (2012) - Lowest dividend: £76.60 (2015)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

3 winners—Iain Jardine (8/1, 11/2 & 4/1) - 3 runners: Kerry Icon (2.15), Traditional Dancer (3.45) & Stoneham (4.45)

3 winners--Mark Johnston (9/2, 15/8 & 7/4*) - 2 runners: Forever Footsteps (2.45) & Hamster Jam (4.15)

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.15: There is some overnight money for JOYFUL STAR emerging in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  You might do well to obtain the trade press quote of 10/1 this morning about Graham Lee’s mount, with connections possibly having most to fear from course winner AVENTUREMAN and LOVE TO ROCK whose trainer (Adrian Paul Keatley) saddled a (16/1) winner at Ayr on the opposite coastline in Scotland yesterday.  Adrian boasts a 25% percent record via 15 winners at Ayr during the last five years though interestingly, this is his first runner at Musselburgh in all of that time.

Favourite factor:  The opening race is a new event on the Musselburgh card

Course winners in the opening event:

1/6—Adventureman (good)

2/13—Nelson’s Bay (good to firm & soft)

 

2.45: Keith Burke seems to be saddling more winners down south these days whereby FOOTSTEPS FOREVER and DONTGIVEUPONBOB are preferred to Myboyhenry on this occasion.  The latter named raider made his debut two months ago now which also poses a question, whereas the first named pair are battle hardened and ready to dual for the main prize from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor:  Just one of the two favourites has finished in the frame to date (no winners).

 

3.15: Horses carrying 9-6 or more have won four of the five contests thus far, whilst four-year-olds (three wins) have the best record in the race.  The vintage stats suggest that PADDY POWER cannot be left out of the equation in a race in which many of the entries meet each other on a regular basis which makes this look like a ‘greyhound’ event.  Pearl Acclaim has contested 34 assignments since last tasting success, whereby ROYAL BRAVE and ROCK OF AMERICA are the main threats to the selection according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: Four of the five market leaders have finished in the frame thus far, statistics which include one winner.

Course winners in the third race:

2/7—Royal Brave (2 x good to firm)

5/17—Silvanus (2 x good & 3 x good to firm)

2/15—Economic Crisis (2 x good to firm)

1/6—Pearl Acclaim (good to firm)

 

3.45: Horses carrying a minimum burden of 9-4 have won five of the six renewals thus far, whilst seven-year-olds have won four of the five contests when represented. That said, vintage representative are only conspicuous by their absence this time around.  Spokesperson won this event two years ago but has only finished in front of just two of her 57 rivals since that success!  Others are preferred accordingly, with QUESTION OF FAITH and TRADITIONAL DANCER jumping off the page and I fully expect this pair to lock horns at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor:  Three of the seven market leaders (via five contests) have claimed toteplacepot positions by winning their respective events.

Course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/4—Cosmic Tigress (good to firm)

2/18—Jonny Delta (good & good to firm)

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1/2—Spokesperson (good)

 

4.15: All seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1 or more, whilst three-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 3-2 to date.  Two horses are eliminated via the weight stats accordingly which leaves ten horses to assess, the pick of which might prove to be SUNNUA, HAMSTER JAM and DONNELLY’S RAINBOW from a value for money perspective at least.  It will interesting to see if overnight support for SUNNUA continues into the mainstream investment period.

Favourite factor: Five of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three successful market leaders and one joint favourite.

Course winners in the fifth race:

1/2—Fine Example (good to firm)

4/18—Ralphy Boy (3 x good & good to firm)

2/18—Cyflymder (good & good to firm)

 

4.45: DUBAWI FIFTY represents Karen McLintocks as the popular trainer seeks to break her bad run at Musselbugh, her last ten raiders having been beaten in Edinburgh during the last five years.  Layers look frightened of laying Graham Lee’s mount beyond the 3/1 mark which makes for interesting reading.  That said, SEBASTIAN’S WISH is on the crest of a wave right now and looks to be the horse to beat.  His 2/3 record at the course under these type of conditions suggests that the ratio will be improved upon this afternoon, unless Karen’s raider is cherry ripe for the battle after a long break from the track.

Favourite factor:  All five favourites have been beaten thus far with three Placepot positions secured to date.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/3—Sebastian’s Wish (2 x good to firm)

2/7—Wor Lass (good & good to firm)

2/6—Stoneham (2 x good)

2/14—Jan Smuts (good & soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Musselburgh card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

7 runners—Keith Dalgleish (5/46 – loss of 25 points)

4—Jim Goldie (2/21 – loss of 13 points)

3—Rebecca Bastiman (3/10 – Profit of 6 points)

3—Richard Fahey (5/27 – Profit of 8 points)

3—Iain Jardine (1/16 – loss of 13 points)

3—David O’Meara (1/7 – Profit of 4 points)

3—Fred Watson (0/1)

2—Karl Burke (1/6 – loss of 1 point)

2—David C Griffiths (1/10 – loss of 3 points)

2—Mark Johnston (0/1)

2—Adrian Paul Keatley (No previous runners)

2—Karen McLintock (0/1)

2—Linda Perratt (0/7)

2—John David Riches (No previous runners)

2—Wilf Storey (0/4)

+ 16 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ffos Las: £9.40 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Nottingham: £139.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Chelmsford: £60.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday July 14

NEWMARKET (JULY COURSE) - JULY 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £4,871.50 (6 favourites - No winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 4 (Fawaareq), 8 (Parfait), 7 (Swift Approval) & 17 (Ripoli)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Clemmie) & 8 (Out Of The Flames)

Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Titi Makfi), 7 (Monticello) & 9 (Oasis Charm)

Leg 4 (3.35): 7 (Wuheida) & 5 (Roly Poly)

Leg 5 (4.10): 1 (Gold Town), 2 (Starlight Mystery), 11 (Merchant Marine) & 9 (Arabian Jazz)

Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Being There) & 10 (Rastrelli)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Course winners are few and far between in the other races at Newmarket today but three of the six relevant runners here are worth a second glance.  PARFAIT is the most obvious contender I guess for John Gosden, though all eight of his runners were beaten at the venue yesterday on a day in which the trainer has done well in recent years.  PARFAIT cannot be left out of the Placepot mix, though I am wondering if any value for money long since disappeared relating to William Buick’s mount.  FAWEEREQ boasts a 2/2 ratio and having won under opposite conditions whereby connections have no worries on account of the ground.  SWIFT APPROVAL beat just nine rivals in the contest last year when trained by Kevin Ryan, though he has yet to prove himself for the Stuart Williams team.  That said, Stuart saddled a winner here yesterday and the trainer has never been frightened of running horses that are seemingly up against superior rivals.  Running off the same mark as last year, SWIFT APPROVAL is arguably worth a small saver at around the 20/1 mark.  There will be worse outsiders on the card than RIPOLI I’ll wager, even though Sylvester Kirk’s four time A/W winner has yet to open his account on turf.  The strength of his three Kempton wins make the current 25/1 mark look attractive from an each way perspective.

Favourite factor: One of the two favourites to date won its respective contest at 5/1 before last year’s 11/4 market leader finished out with the washing.

Course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Makzeem (good to soft)

2/2—Fawaareq (good to firm & soft)

1/4—Gunmetal (good to soft)

1/1—Swift Approval (good to firm)

1/1—Parfait (good)

2/5—Majestic Moon (2 x good to firm)

 

2.25: In a race which I will always refer to as the ‘Cherry Hinton’ (apologies in place to the Duchess of Cambridge) I can impart news that ‘Team Hannon‘ is the only training establishment to have saddled three winners of this event during the last thirteen years and saddling the Queen Mary bronze medallist OUT OF THE FLAMES gives Richard a sporting chance of landing another victory on behalf of the stable.  Time could prove that finishing three lengths adrift of Heartache at Royal Ascot was a fine effort.  William Buick was quoted as saying that Heartache was a ‘class apart’ from the other juvenile winners at Ascot this year and OUT OF THE FLAMES could add weight to William’s argument.  CLEMMIE disappointed at Ascot a few weeks back but came bouncing back to form via a Group 3 victory and this one grade hike might not be beyond Aidan O’Brien’s Galileo filly.  Roly Poly took a similar route to the circle reserved for the winner in last year’s race for the yard and lightning could strike twice this afternoon to leave Irish eyes smiling.

Favourite factor:  Eight of the last seventeen favourites have won whilst 15/22 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

 

3.00: Mark Johnston has won the last four renewals and in TITI MAKFI and MONTCELLO, Mark has definite claims of saddling his sixth winner of the race within the last 11 years.  The pair are listed in order of preference, though there may not be a great deal of daylight between the stable companions at the jamstick.  If Mark is to be denied another success, OASIS CHARM could prove to be the joker in the pack with Charlie Appleby’s team in great form just now.  That said, when are Charlie’s runners anything but prominent on the racecourse?  The weight concession is against Leshlaa who is overlooked accordingly, though I still expect to Godolphin raider to run well.

Favourite factor: 10 renewals have come and gone since the last favourite obliged.  Six of the last 10 gold medallists were returned at double figure prices, ranging between 11/1 and 25/1.

 

3.35: Three-year-olds have won 10 of the last 20 renewals of this Group 1 event and the junior course winners look to have a firm grip on the contest this time around.  ROLY POLY is as tough as teak and not many fillies would want to get into street battle with Aidan O’Brien’s raider who won the ‘Duchess Of Cambridge’ on the corresponding card twelve months ago.  That said, Charlie Appleby’s Dubawi filly WUHEIDA could yet be anything, given that she is a winner of her two races to date, her second success coming in the Group 1 ‘Marcel Boussac’ last back end.  If she can turn Roly Poly over here on her seasonal debut, the sky could literally be the limit for William Buick’s mount.

Favourite factor:  Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last eighteen years, whilst 11/18 jollies have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the Falmouth Stakes:

1/1—Roly Poly (good to firm)

1/1—Wuheida (good to firm)

 

4.10: Six of the last ten winners have carried a maximum burden of nine stones in this two-year-old handicap contest, albeit I am little hesitant in dismissing the chances of GOLD TOWN and SRTARLIGHT MYSTERY from the 'inferior' sector of the weights, especially as more recent renewals have gone the way of horses higher up the handicap.  Indeed, three of the last four winners have carried 9-5 or more which supports my argument in nominating the top pair in my Placepot mix.  Ralph Beckett saddled last year’s winner and his Epaulette colt MERCHANT MARINE in not without place claims, arguably alongside ARABIAN JAZZ.

Favourite factor:  Eight of the 14 market leaders have reached the frame (six winners) in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager.  Although market leaders have won six of the twelve renewals to date, five of the last ten gold medallists were returned at 16/1-12/1-8/1-8/1-11/2.

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4.45:  Six of the last 13 renewals have fallen the way of market leaders in a race which has produced plenty of decent winners in the past.  From a Placepot perspective, Charlie Appleby looks to have this contested all wrapped with a pretty bow given that BEING THERE will surely take a great deal of kicking out of the frame following a highly promising debut.  Add his expensive breeze-up newcomer RASTRELLI into the equation and we should be able to spend the rest of the afternoon in the bar.  Perhaps later in the day you could look up the film Being There and finish off Friday by watching the truly superb performance of Peter Sellers in a captivating movie (imo).

Favourite factor:  Eight clear favourites and one joint favourite have won during the study period.  13/24 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.  Horses starting at 16/1 or more have claimed just eight Placepot positions via 116 representatives during the study period.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Friday + ‘scoresheet’ from Day 1 at Newmarket July meeting!

7 runners—Charlie Appleby (2/6 on the 1st day at 7/2 & 9/2 = 23/1 double)

6—Richard Hannon (0/6)

4—Richard Fahey (0/5)

4—Charlie Hills (0/2)

4—Mark Johnston (1/4 - winner at 8/1)

3—John Gosden (0/8)

3—John Quinn (No runners yesterday)

3—Saeed Bin Suroor (0/1)

3—Stuart Williams (winner at 7/1)

2—Ralph Beckett (No runners yesterday)

2—Michael Bell (0/1)

2—Simon Crisford (No runners yesterday)

2—Luca Cumani (No runners yesterday)

2—Robert Cowell (0/1)

2—Jim Goldie (No runners yesterday)

2—William Haggas (No runners yesterday)

2—Stan Moore (No runners yesterday)

2—Jeremy Noseda (No runners yesterday)

2—Aidan O’Brien (0/2)

2—Hugo Palmer (0/3)

2—Ian Williams (No winners yesterday)

1 runner today—Andrew Balding (1/2 yesterday - winner at 7/1)

1 runner today—Brian Meehan (1/2 yesterday – winner at 7/2

+ 25 different other trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

88 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ascot: £152.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Chepstow: £4,779.00 – 7 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

Musselburgh: £276.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

York: £573.30 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday June 17

SANDOWN – JUNE 17

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £69.90 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 3 (Oriental Romance), 9 (Rio Ronaldo) & 1 (Musical Comedy)

Leg 2 (2.40): 6 (Equimou), 5 (Fashion Queen) & 3 (Copper Knight)

Leg 3 (3.15): 2 (Love Dreams) & 1 (Battered)

Leg 4 (3.50): 6 (Taurean Star), 2 (Sir Roderic) & 3 (Greenside)

Leg 5 (4.25): 4 (Intrepidly), 2 (Comedy School) & 5 (War Chief)

Leg 6 (5.00): 1 (Bristol Missle) & 7 (Musaahim)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: This meeting was known as ‘Timeform Day’ down the years though I have long since regarded it as a bookmaker’s extravaganza, designed to get as much money into the hod before Royal Ascot as the layers can muster.  The bottom three horses (of twelve in total) can be eliminated if you take the weight stats seriously as all eleven winners have been burdened with a minimum of 8-11 thus far.  It might seem obvious to suggest that the handicapper could have caught up with ORIENTAL ROMANCE via his two wins at Pontefract earlier in the season.  That said, James Given’s raider is only three pounds higher than the latest of those victories under fast conditions and with the trainer having won with four of his last thirteen runners, I will take the chance that Joe Doyle’s mount could outrun his odds.  Mike Murphy’s pair RIO RONALDO and MUSICAL COMEDY are taken as the main dangers.

Favourite factor: Six of the last eleven favourites have finished in the frame, including the successful (5/2) market leader in 2015.

Record of course winners in the opening race:

1/4—Secret Asset (good to firm)

 

2.40: The ‘Scurry Stakes’ has the look of a race which is designed to relieve punters of as much cash as possible before they have a chance of biting back at Royal Ascot. That argument has lost momentum however as the biggest priced winner was returned at just 10/1 during the last twelve years.  Nine of the last twelve winners have scored at odds of 4/1 or less for good measure.  The terms and conditions of this Listed event appears to favour two recent scorers in EQIMOU and FASHION QUEEN, with hat trick seeker COPPER KNIGHT very much respected at one and the same time.  Ardad appears to have something to prove after his seasonal debut effort, especially under a five pound penalty for winning the Group 2 ‘Flying Childers’ last back end.

Favourite factor: Seven market leaders have been successful via twelve renewals, though three of the other five market leaders finished out of the frame.

 

3.15: Seven of the last eleven winners during the last decade have carried a minimum burden of 9-2, stats which brings BATTERED and LOVE DREAMS strongly into the equation.  Both horses have won under these (fast) conditions, though I might have listed the pair the wrong way around the more I look at the race.  Indeed, Mark Johnston (LOVE DREAMS) might have found a realistic (decent) target here with BATTERED having been burdened with a nine pound penalty.  That said, Mark’s Dream Ahead colt has been off the track for a year whereby there may not be too much daylight between the pair at the jamstick.  Akhlaaq looks booked for third spot from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Eleven of the twelve favourites have been beaten, with favourites claiming five toteplacepot position between them to date. The biggest priced winner was returned at 25/1 last year, whilst 19 of the 35 horses (54.2%) to have claimed toteplacepot positions have started at odds of 13/2 or less.

 

3.50: Four-year-olds have secured nine of the fifteen available toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include four of the five winners at 11/1-5/1-9/2*-11/4*. Four-year-old raiders TAUREAN STAR and SIR RODERIC may not jump off the page via the form book, but both respective trainers (Michael Bell and Rod Millman) have their horses in fine fettle at this moment in time.  I appreciate that many of you will support GREENSIDE and while I believe that my pair represent better value for money on this occasion, I will add Ryan Moore’ s mount into my Placepot mix.

Favourite factor: All three market leaders had missed out on toteplacepot positions, before the 2015 market leader duly obliged at 9/2.  Last year’s market leader narrowed the gap between punters and the ‘aliens’ when scoring at 11/4.

Record of course winners in the fourth event on the card: 

2/5—Laidback Romeo (2 x good to firm)

2/3—Sir Roderic (good & good to soft)

 

4.25: Ten of the last thirteen winners carried a minimum burden of 8-13, whilst top trainers tend to secure this prize in no uncertain terms.  Jeremy Noseda’s Kempton winner INTREPIDLY is the first name on the team sheet accordingly, with WAR CHIEF and COMEDY SCHOOL also included in the short list.

Favourite factor: Just one favourite has won during the last seventeen years, whilst eight of the twenty market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

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5.00: The last fourteen winners of this event were returned at odds of 8/1 or less and many punters will latch on to BRISTOL MISSILE, though I will only be adding Richard Hannon’s Kitten’s Joy colt into the Placepot mix, especially with two Hamdan Al Maktoum representatives having been declared.  I’m inclined to fancy MUSAAHIM over Munthany, chiefly because of the fine from of Roger Varian’s inmates just now.

Favourite factor: Six renewals had slipped by since a successful favourite was registered before the 5/6 market leader came good on behalf of the punters three years ago. That said, recent contests have reverted to type.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Saturday:

3 runners—Charlie Hills (5/1 winner at this corresponding meeting during the last five years)

2—Michael Appleby

2—Michael Bell

2—Clive Cox (12/1 winner)

2—Luca Cumani

2—Richard Fahey

2—Julia Feilden

2—John Gosden (One winner at 11/4* during the last five years)

2—William Haggas (15/2)

2—Richard Hughes

2—Mark Johnston (One winner at 8/1 winner during the last five years)

2—Mike Murphy

2—Amanda Perrett

2—David Simcock

2—Ian Williams

+ 37 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

68 declared runners

 

General overview

Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bath: £27.70 (6 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)

Hexham: £61.80 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)

Leicester: £122.60 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

Lingfield: £158.00 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)

Musselburgh: £348.80 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

York: £604.40 (7 favourites - 1 winner & 6 unplaced)

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday June 3rd

EPSOM – JUNE 3 

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last six years at Epsom on Derby Day:

2016: £1,364.50 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2015: £4,314.00 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

2014: £18.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners & 3 placed)

2013: £1,135.00 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £123.10 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £304.50 (6 favourites: No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

Average dividend: £1,209.88 - 39 favourites - 11 winners - 12 placed - 16 unplaced

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Epsom: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Tartini) & 4 (Drochaid)

Leg 2 (2.35): 7 (Laugh Aloud) & 1 (Czabo)

Leg 3 (3.10): 6 (Here Comes When), 4 (Folkswood) & 8 (Oh This Is Us)

Leg 4 (3.45): 18 (Dark Shot), 10 (El Astronaute), 13 (Exceed The Limit), 12 (Majestic Hero) & 4 (Boom The Groom)

Leg 5 (4.30): 4 (Cliffs Of Moher), 5 (Cracksman), 3 (Capri) & 11 (Khalidi)

Leg 6 (5.15): 6 (Gawdawpalin) & 4 (Shraaoh)

Suggested stake: 480 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: As an additional guide for toteplacepot enthusiasts on Derby Day, I can reveal that the last thirteen Derby cards at Epsom have produced an average Placepot dividend of £856.74.  88 favourites have emerged via the 78 races resulting in the following Placepot favourite stats: 21 winners--27 placed--40 unplaced.  Nine of the last ten winners of the opening event on the card have carried weights of 9-2 or less, stats which led me to suggest that

Goodwood Zodiac would outrun his price last year before William Knight’s raider finished second at 33/1.  TARTINI was only a 4/1 chance to beat Cracksman in the Derby Trial here in April and though unsuccessful that day, John Gosden’s raider is fancied to repay losses in this grade/company.  DROCHAID and EMENEM are expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won during the study period.  13 of the 22 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.  Eight renewals have slipped by since the last favourite obliged.

Draw factor (ten furlongs – most recent result listed first):

14-15-3 (15 ran-food to soft)

11-9-1 (13 ran-good)

6-3-5 (11 ran-good)

7-6-1 (11 ran-good)

7-13-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-6-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

11-1-9 (12 ran-good to firm)

1-15-7-12 (17 ran-good)

6-1-5 (12 ran-good)

10-1-2 (14 ran-good)

8-11-10 (15 ran-good to firm)

8-11-9 (11 ran-good)

1-14-16-2 (18 ran-good)

11-13-14-15 (17 ran-good)

1-3-7 (10 ran-soft)

1-6-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

1-14-7 (12 ran-good to soft)

2-3-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

11-9-5 (11 ran-good)

 

2.35: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last seventeen renewals of this contest and with six of the eleven declarations representing the vintage, the trend could well be extended. The pick of the sextet has to be LAUGH ALOUD from my viewpoint, John Gosden’s recent Goodwood winner having blown away a Listed field in facile fashion under fast conditions.  Raised into Group 3 territory here, LAUGH ALOUD should take the hike in her stride having won three of her last five assignments in the style of a progressive filly in the making.  Mick Channon has won this event three times and his pair CZABO and last year’s winner EPSOM ICON might chase LAUGH ALOUD home.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last fourteen favourites have prevailed as have nine of the latest nineteen market leaders, during which time the biggest priced gold medallist was returned at just 9/1.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

4-7 (7 ran-good to soft)

1-4-8 (9 ran-good)

6-2-3 (10 ran-good)

1-9-2 (9 ran-good to soft)

6-3-1 (8 ran-good)

7-1-8 (8 ran-good)

5-7-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

5-8-7 (8 ran-good)

6-8-5 (9 ran-good)

6-4-5 (10 ran-good to soft)

5-2-3 (10 ran-good)

4 (3 ran-good)

10-1-5 (8 ran-good)

4-5-1 (8 ran-good)

6-5 (6 ran-soft)

2-5-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

3-4-7 (10 ran-good to soft)

2-1 (6 ran-good to soft)

3-5-6 (8 ran-good)

 

3.10: I rarely mention the ‘sister’ bet of the toteplacepot but on this occasion I have some interesting stats to offer, with this race starting the ‘insurance’ (Quadpot) bet if that is the way you view the wager.  The average totequadpot dividend on Oaks day at Epsom during the last 13 years paid £84.08.  54 favourites emerged, resulting in 18 winners, 13 were placed, 22 unplaced and one non-runner.  Followers of yours truly were in clover when HERE COMES WHEN scored at 10/1 at York the last day, having been advised to cash in on the 16/1 which was available earlier in the day.  Unplaced on his only start here at Epsom, my main worry concerns this venue because let’s face it, not every thoroughbred acts around the twists and trends, notwithstanding the camber at the business end of proceedings.  FOLKSWOOD is feared most, with OH THIS IS US also expected to figure prominently.

Favourite factor: 15 of the last 19 winners have scored at 8/1 or less, statistics which include six winning favourites.  Only four of the last eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor' (eight and a half furlongs):

1-11 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-1 (7 ran-good)

1-5 (7 ran-good)

7-6 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-4 (6 ran-good)

1-8-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

8-2-9 (9 ran-good)

4-8-7 (8 ran-good)

5-8-4 (8 ran-good)

2-3 (5 ran-good)

2-5-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

1-4 (7 ran-good)

3-1-10 (11 ran-good)

9-11-3 (10 ran-good)

6-8-7 (9 ran-good to soft)

6-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

2-3 (5 ran-good)

4-2 (6 ran-good)

3-1-2 (10 ran-good)

 

3.45: I tend to offer draw statistics in big races where possible for readers to determine where potential advantages lie, whether or not the powers that be have interfered with stall positions in recent years!  I leave it to readers to work out if there is any advantage to home in on. I have never been a 'sit on the fence' man like some 'media experts' who forever drone on about my type of work being futile given that it all depends on where the 'pace in the race' is coming from.  I think even 'they' will admit that in the Epsom Dash, pace is everywhere to be seen!  Six-year-olds have secured five of the last 12 renewals, whilst nine of the last eleven gold medallists have carried a maximum burden of 9-1.  Sporadic thunderstorms could break out late doors on Friday (maybe overnight) whereby high numbers cannot be ruled out, especially if you take a look at last year’s details below. My ‘short list’ consists of DARK SHOT (drawn 10/20), EL ASTRONAUTE (7), EXCEED THE LIMIT (17) and MAJESTIC HERO (2) with which to go to war against the old enemy.  The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to BOOM THE GROOM (18).

Favourite factor: Only four of the last eighteen favourites have finished in the frame.  Only one (5/1) market leader prevailed during the last decade during which time, the average price of the winner was 10/1.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

17-19-20-18 (17 ran-good to soft)

1-7-18-5 (20 ran-good to firm)

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14-17-12-13 (19 ran-good)

19-1-5-13 (17 ran-good)

2-16-15-3 (20 ran-good to firm)

9-13-10-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

15-14-16-9 (19 ran-good to firm)

18-12-11-1 (18 ran-good)

8-19-12-17 (19 ran-good)

15-16-17-12 (18 ran-good)

17-8-20-5 (20 ran—good to firm)

10-3-5-15 (20 ran—good)

8-10-2-3 (20 ran—good to firm)

10-11-8 (11 ran—good)

1-6-9 (11 ran—good to soft)

12-6-7-17 (17 ran—good to firm)

3-1-12 (12 ran—good)

11-2-9 (11 ran—good)

10-2-4 (15 ran—good)

 

4.30: Aidan O’Brien has saddled five winners and eleven placed horses in the Derby during the last eighteen years and with six of those placed horses having been returned at 100/1--25/1--25/1--20/1--16/1 and 14/1, few (if any) of his runners should be ignored.  CLIFFS of MOHER appears to be the main hope for the team in what looks to a wide open renewal.  York's Dante Stakes is far and away the best prep race these days however, though it is worth mentioning that as far as I can recall, only Workforce has won this 'Blue Riband' having been beaten on the Knavesmire in the trial. That probably rules Benbati and Rekindling out of the equation, with course winner CRACKSMAN regarded as the main danger to Ryan Moore’s mount.  KHALIDI could improve again for a step up in trip, whilst other each way options include CAPRI and BEST SOLUTION.

Favourite factor: The last 18 winners of the Derby have scored at 7/1 or less, statistics which include seven favourites of one sort or another.  Ten of the last fourteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions. Camelot was the first odds on favourite to win the Epsom Derby five years ago since Shergar obliged back in 1989 and the one thing we know about Saturday's race for sure, is that there will not be an odds on chance this season!

Draw factor:

9-15-8 (16 ran-good to soft)

8-10-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

12-2-11 (16 ran-good)

10-5-11 (12 ran-good)

5-3-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

7-12-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

8-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

4-10-2 (12 ran-good)

3-14-10 (16 ran-good)

14-8-2 (17 ran-good)

10-11-18 (18 ran-good to firm)

5-12-4 (13 ran-good)

6-11-3 (14 ran-good)

4-16-8 (20 ran-good)

9-12-4 (12 ran-good to soft)

10-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

15-7-10 (15 ran-good)

1-5-17 (16 ran-good)

14-1-11 (15 ran-good)

 

5.15: Four-year-olds have claimed nine of the last nineteen renewals including eight of the last thirteen (vintage representatives have finished 1-2-3-4 twice in the last eight years - first, second and fourth three years ago). I am pinning my hopes on SHRAAOH (drawn 2/13) and GAWDAWPALIN (5) this time around.  That said, I have probably listed the pair the wrong way around as the latter named raider won on the corresponding card last year. The very best of luck with all your bets on Derby Day, hoping that the weather stays dry (aside from personal bias towards some horses) for those braving the elements on the Downs this year.

Favourite factor: Only one favourite has won the Placepot finale during the past nineteen years, whilst just five of the other eighteen market leaders have additionally claimed toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (twelve furlongs):

16-14-17-5 (17 ran-good to soft)

13-1-19-17 (19 ran-good to firm)

5-2-8 (15 ran-good)

11-12-10 (12 ran-good)

11-14-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-7-6 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-1-13 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-8-2-9 (16 ran-good)

3-15-9 (15 ran-good)

16-1-9-15 (16 ran-good)

10-12-14 (14 ran-good to firm)

15-4-20-9 (good)

10-12-3 (13 ran-good)

4-6-2 (8 ran-good)

2-5 (7 ran-good to soft)

9-2-8 (11 ran-good to firm)

4-2-1 (12 ran-good)

3-5-7 (11 ran-good)

1-11-13 (15 ran-good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Epsom card on Saturday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued before Friday’s sport was contested:

7 runners—John Gosden (9/33 – loss of 4 points to level stakes)

6—Aidan O’Brien (5/32 – Profit of 32 points)

5—Andrew Balding (15/106 – Slight profit)

5—Mark Johnston (14/113 – loss of 42 points)

5—Paul Midgley (1/8 – Profit on 9 points)

4—Richard Fahey (13/86 – Profit of 25 points)

4—Sylvester Kirk (4/30 – Profit of 12 ponts)

4—David O’Meara (3/124 – loss of 11 points)

3—Mick Channon (13/65 – Profit of 19 points)

3—Richard Hannon (10/59 – loss of 13 points)

3—Saeed Bin Suroor (5/29 – loss of 11 points)

2—Ralph Beckett (9/43 – Profit of 17 points)

2—Robert Cowell (1/20 – loss of 15 points)

2—David C Griffiths (0/2)

2—Mick Easterby (1/4 – slight loss)

2—David Elsworth (2/9 – Profit of 5 points)

2—Ron Harris (1/8 – loss of 2 points)

2—John Quinn (3/11 – Profit of 1 point)

2—Sir Michael Stoute (3/25 – loss of 11 points)

+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

96 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £57.20 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Musselburgh: £152.10 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 1 unplaced

Lingfield: £950.10 – 7 favourites – o winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

Newcastle: £115.60 – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Hexham: £769.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 placed)

Worcester: £65.70 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced