Posts

Tuesday's pick was...

4.45 Catterick : Mamoo @ 11/2 BOG WON at 7/1 (Mid-division, headway after 3 out, challenged towards stands side rail next, not clear run and switched inside between last 2, soon ridden, stayed on to lead towards finish) : nice to "nick" one and the other mentioned horse also won for a 35/1 double!

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Summer Lightening @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4f on Soft ground worth £3,964 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old mare was a winner last time out five weeks ago, comes here seeking a hat-trick and is the only one of the 9 runners in this contest with any real discernible recent form, as only one other has a win in their last five outings.

She has won three times so far, including...

  • 2 in handicaps
  • 2 this year
  • 2 for jockey Conor O'Farrell
  • 2 for trainer Dianne Sayer
  • 1 at Class 4
  • and 1 on Soft ground

Her trainer Dianne Sayer tends to do well with in-form horses and since the start of 2018, her LTO winners are 11 from 36 (30.6% SR) for 12.7pts (+35.3% ROI) with the following derived angles at play today...

  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 12.46pts (+36.7%) in handicaps
  • 10/27 (37%) for 19.46pts (+72.1%) at 5-35 dslr
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 19.76pts (+82.3%) with runners aged 4-6 yrs old
  • 9/15 (60%) for 14.7pts (+98%) at odds of 5/4 to 15/4
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 7.9pts (+52.7%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 11.94pts (+85.3%) when racing just 70-120 miles away from her base just South of Penrith
  • 6/10 (60%) for 15.05pts (+150.5%) on Soft ground
  • 5/10 (50%) for 19.8pts (+198%) with those stepping up in trip
  • 3/10 (30%) for 1.18pts (+11.8%) at Class 4
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 10.47pts (+116.3%) in fields of 9-10 runners
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 0.28pts (+4.74%) with jockey Conor O'Farrell

...whilst 4-6 yr old handicappers sent off at 5/4 to 15/4 after 5-35 days rest are 7 from 10 (70% SR) for 14.75pts (+147.5% ROI), including 4 from 5 (80%) for 9.09pts (+181.8%) over hurdles...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Summer Lightening @ 10/3 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Hills at 8.05am Wednesday with plenty of 3/1 BOG around elsewhere, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Friday's pick was...

3.05 Catterick : Casual Cavalier @ 11/4 BOG WON at 5/1 (Tracked leaders, disputed lead from 7th, led 4 out, 3 lengths clear 2 out, ridden out flat, held on near finish) - a very satisfactory end to a frustrating month that also started well, but had a serious dip in the middle!

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.40 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Locker Room Talk @ 3/1 BOG

...in the 10-runner, Class 3, Scottish Champion Chase (Handicap for the Bowes-Lyon trophy) for 5yo+ over 2m on Good to Soft ground worth £13,256 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding has made the frame in 8 of his 9 starts (5 over hrds and then 4 over fences) during the past 12 months, winning four times. His record over fences reads 3311 including successes at 1m7.5f and 2m0.5f and als0 at this Class 3 level and a grade higher.

To date, he was won 4 of 12 (33.33% SR), including the following applicable today...

  • 4/9 going right handed
  • 4/8 after 2 to 7 weeks rest
  • 4/4 at Evens to 6/1
  • 3/8 at 15.5 to 16.5 furlongs
  • 3/5 during December to March
  • and 2/2 in handicap chases

He has travelled a long way to run here today, but his trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies does well when far from home. Since the start of 2016, his NH non-Festival runners sent off at odds of 6/5 to 8/1 at tracks more than 200 miles from home are 12 from 51 (23.5% SR) for 10.4pts (+20.4% ROI), including the following of relevance here...

  • 12/46 (26.1%) for 15.4pts (+33.4%) during October-March
  • 12/45 (26.7%) for 16.4pts (+36.4%) at 240-340 miles from home
  • 11/33 (33.3%) for 18.9pts (+57.4%) in races worth £4k to £14k
  • 9/34 (26.5%) for 17.3pts (+50.8%) over the last two years
  • 5/24 (20.8%) for 3.42pts (+14.3%) at Class 3
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 12.2pts (+76.1%) after 1 to 4 weeks rest
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 18.4pts (+167.2%) during Feb/March
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 11pts (+84.4%) on Good to Soft
  • and 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.13pts (+83%) from LTO winners

...whilst during October to March over the last two years at 240-340 miles from home in races worth £4-14k, those runners are 8/20 (40% SR) 21.8pts (+109% ROI), including...

  • 4/11 (36.4%) at Class 3
  • 4/6 (66.6%) in Feb/March
  • 3/7 (42.9%) on Good to Soft
  • 3/5 (60%) after 1-4 weeks rest
  • and 2/4 (50%) from LTO winners...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Locker Room Talk @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Saturday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm away for the weekend from lunchtime Friday until Monday afternoon, so whilst I'll do my best to stick to the usual timetable, it might not possible, but there'll definitely be picks from me for Saturday & Monday.

Saturday's pick was...

12.20 Chepstow : Native Robin @ 4/1 5th at 11/2 (Held up and behind, short-lived effort after 11th)

Monday's pick runs in the...

1.15 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Castletown @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novice Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4f on currently Good to Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding's form over the last 12 months reads 222312 and he was a runner-up over class, course and distance last time out a fortnight ago, headed late on and beaten by just 3 lengths despite coming off the back of a 226-day absence. He should come on for having had that run and going off the same mark today is a bonus.

In those last 6 runs he is...

  • 2222 under jockey Henry Brooke
  • 2312 in handicaps
  • 2232 on Good to Soft
  • 22 at Class 4 (won at Class 3)
  • 22 in December
  • 12 at 2m4.5f
  • and was a runner-up on his only run here at Musselburgh.

He is trained by Pauline Robson who is 27 from 110 (24.6% SR) for 25.5pts (+23.2% ROI) with her NH runners sent off at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 since the start of 2016, including...

  • 22/90 (24.4%) for 20.2pts (+22.4%) in handicaps
  • 22/64 (34.4%) for 47.9pts (+74.9%) at 11-45 dslr
  • 21/79 (26.6%) for 31pts (+39.2%) over trips of 1m7.5f to 2m4.5f
  • 20/69 (29%) for 37.6pts (+54.5%) at 51 to 170 miles from home
  • 19/66 (28.8%) for 24.8pts (+37.6%) with her only runner at the track
  • 18/65 (27.7%) for 18.6pts (+28.6%) with her only runner of the day
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 13.8pts (+62.6%) with jockey Henry Brooke
  • and 7/17 (41.2%) for 22.3pts (+131.1%) with LTO runners-up

...whilst based around the above categories and applicable today...handicappers racing over 2m to 3m0.5f within 45 days of their last run as Pauline's only runner of the day are 12 from 29 (41.4% SR) for 28.7pts (+99% ROI) within 170 miles of home, from which...

  • Henry Brooke is 5/10 (50%) for 15.74pts (+157.4%)
  • Class 4 runners are 5/10 (50%) for 14.81pts (+148.1%)
  • and LTO runners-up are 3/7 (42.9%) for 7pts (+100%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Native Robin @ 4/1 BOG  as was widely available at 5.50pm on Sunday, whilst Hills (non-BOG until raceday) were half a point bigger. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.15 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Saturday's pick was...

12.20 Chepstow : Native Robin @ 4/1 5th at 11/2 (Held up and behind, short-lived effort after 11th)

Monday's pick runs in the...

1.15 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Castletown @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novice Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4f on currently Good to Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding's form over the last 12 months reads 222312 and he was a runner-up over class, course and distance last time out a fortnight ago, headed late on and beaten by just 3 lengths despite coming off the back of a 226-day absence. He should come on for having had that run and going off the same mark today is a bonus.

In those last 6 runs he is...

  • 2222 under jockey Henry Brooke
  • 2312 in handicaps
  • 2232 on Good to Soft
  • 22 at Class 4 (won at Class 3)
  • 22 in December
  • 12 at 2m4.5f
  • and was a runner-up on his only run here at Musselburgh.

He is trained by Pauline Robson who is 27 from 110 (24.6% SR) for 25.5pts (+23.2% ROI) with her NH runners sent off at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 since the start of 2016, including...

  • 22/90 (24.4%) for 20.2pts (+22.4%) in handicaps
  • 22/64 (34.4%) for 47.9pts (+74.9%) at 11-45 dslr
  • 21/79 (26.6%) for 31pts (+39.2%) over trips of 1m7.5f to 2m4.5f
  • 20/69 (29%) for 37.6pts (+54.5%) at 51 to 170 miles from home
  • 19/66 (28.8%) for 24.8pts (+37.6%) with her only runner at the track
  • 18/65 (27.7%) for 18.6pts (+28.6%) with her only runner of the day
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 13.8pts (+62.6%) with jockey Henry Brooke
  • and 7/17 (41.2%) for 22.3pts (+131.1%) with LTO runners-up

...whilst based around the above categories and applicable today...handicappers racing over 2m to 3m0.5f within 45 days of their last run as Pauline's only runner of the day are 12 from 29 (41.4% SR) for 28.7pts (+99% ROI) within 170 miles of home, from which...

  • Henry Brooke is 5/10 (50%) for 15.74pts (+157.4%)
  • Class 4 runners are 5/10 (50%) for 14.81pts (+148.1%)
  • and LTO runners-up are 3/7 (42.9%) for 7pts (+100%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Native Robin @ 4/1 BOG  as was widely available at 5.50pm on Sunday, whilst Hills (non-BOG until raceday) were half a point bigger. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.15 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Saturday's pick was...

5.55 Haydock : Northern Beau @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Pressed leader to 5 out, outpaced in 4th next, went modest 3rd next, never able to get back on terms)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Frame Rate @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m7f on Good ground worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding finished 2nd LTO, three parts of a length behind the re-opposing Elite Icon here over 1m6f ten days ago, but I'm backing him to reverse placings as this is a furlong longer and our boy was staying on the better of the two last time and he's a pound better off today.

His trainer Iain Jardine has had 7 winners from 28 (25% SR), generating 65.2pts (+233% ROI) profit for his followers over the last fortnight, from which...

  • today's jockey Jamie Gormley is 4/17 (23.5%) for 58.7pts (+345.3%)
  • Class 6 runners are 3/7 (42.9%) for 7.65pts (+109.2%)
  • and Jamie is 2/4 (50%) for 6.42pts (+160.4%) on Iain's Class 6 entrants.

Moreover, since 2015, Iain's Flat handicappers racing at trips beyond a mile and a half are 37 from 207 (17.9% SR) for 85.9pts (+41.5% ROI) if backed blindly and these are excellent numbers, but if you didn't want to follow them blindly, here is "just" a dozen of the various possible profitable angles you could take from that approach, all of which are in play today, of course...

  • males are 27/153 (17.7%) for 98.2pts (+64.2%)
  • those who raced in the previous 25 days are 32/149 (21.5%) for 101.8pts (+68.3%)
  • over trips of 1m6f to 2m : 27/117 (23.1%) for 99.6pts (+85.1%)
  • in Scotland : 21/106 (19.8%) for 45pts (+42.4%)
  • here at Musselburgh : 14/73 (19.2%) for 14.9pts (+20.4%)
  • at Class 6  :13/67 (19.4%) for 8.1pts (+12.1%)
  • ridden by Jamie Gormley : 11/60 (18.3%) for 1.7pts (+2.9%)
  • up in trip by 1-3 furlongs : 16/51 (31.4%) for 79.1pts (+155.2%)
  • 4 yr olds are 11/43 (25.6%) for 77pts (+179%)
  • at odds of 3/1 or shorter : 17/38 (44.7%) for 21.8pts (+57.3%)
  • LTO runners-up are 7/25 928%) for 40.9pts (+163.7%)
  • and those up 1 furlong are 4/12 933.3%) for 10.5pts (+87.6%)

...from which...males racing over 1m6f to 2m in NW England / Yorkshire / Scotland within 25 days of their last run are 17 from 58 (29.3% SR) for 110.9pts (+191.3% ROI), a much easier to operate/manage micro-system that also includes...

  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 38.8pts (+161.8%) in Scotland
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 12.1pts (+63.8%) for Jamie Gormley
  • 6/17  (35.3%) for 12.4pts (+73%) here at Musselburgh
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 3.38pts (+112.7%) for Jamie here at Musselburgh...

...steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on Frame Rate @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Saturday's pick was...

5.55 Haydock : Northern Beau @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Pressed leader to 5 out, outpaced in 4th next, went modest 3rd next, never able to get back on terms)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Frame Rate @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m7f on Good ground worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding finished 2nd LTO, three parts of a length behind the re-opposing Elite Icon here over 1m6f ten days ago, but I'm backing him to reverse placings as this is a furlong longer and our boy was staying on the better of the two last time and he's a pound better off today.

His trainer Iain Jardine has had 7 winners from 28 (25% SR), generating 65.2pts (+233% ROI) profit for his followers over the last fortnight, from which...

  • today's jockey Jamie Gormley is 4/17 (23.5%) for 58.7pts (+345.3%)
  • Class 6 runners are 3/7 (42.9%) for 7.65pts (+109.2%)
  • and Jamie is 2/4 (50%) for 6.42pts (+160.4%) on Iain's Class 6 entrants.

Moreover, since 2015, Iain's Flat handicappers racing at trips beyond a mile and a half are 37 from 207 (17.9% SR) for 85.9pts (+41.5% ROI) if backed blindly and these are excellent numbers, but if you didn't want to follow them blindly, here is "just" a dozen of the various possible profitable angles you could take from that approach, all of which are in play today, of course...

  • males are 27/153 (17.7%) for 98.2pts (+64.2%)
  • those who raced in the previous 25 days are 32/149 (21.5%) for 101.8pts (+68.3%)
  • over trips of 1m6f to 2m : 27/117 (23.1%) for 99.6pts (+85.1%)
  • in Scotland : 21/106 (19.8%) for 45pts (+42.4%)
  • here at Musselburgh : 14/73 (19.2%) for 14.9pts (+20.4%)
  • at Class 6  :13/67 (19.4%) for 8.1pts (+12.1%)
  • ridden by Jamie Gormley : 11/60 (18.3%) for 1.7pts (+2.9%)
  • up in trip by 1-3 furlongs : 16/51 (31.4%) for 79.1pts (+155.2%)
  • 4 yr olds are 11/43 (25.6%) for 77pts (+179%)
  • at odds of 3/1 or shorter : 17/38 (44.7%) for 21.8pts (+57.3%)
  • LTO runners-up are 7/25 928%) for 40.9pts (+163.7%)
  • and those up 1 furlong are 4/12 933.3%) for 10.5pts (+87.6%)

...from which...males racing over 1m6f to 2m in NW England / Yorkshire / Scotland within 25 days of their last run are 17 from 58 (29.3% SR) for 110.9pts (+191.3% ROI), a much easier to operate/manage micro-system that also includes...

  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 38.8pts (+161.8%) in Scotland
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 12.1pts (+63.8%) for Jamie Gormley
  • 6/17  (35.3%) for 12.4pts (+73%) here at Musselburgh
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 3.38pts (+112.7%) for Jamie here at Musselburgh...

...steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on Frame Rate @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Good Friday's pick was...

4.35 Bath : Bayshore Freeway @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Soon led, ridden and headed over 1f out, stayed on same pace, no chance with winner)

Easter Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.50 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Porth Swtan @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Good ground worth £12450 to the winner..

Why?...

On a bumper day of racing, I've got a stack of data surrounding this 4 yr old gelding who's has won 4 of 7 since the start of the last Flat season and was a winner last time out 18 days ago.

That was here at Musselburgh over today's course and distance and despite being on the comeback from a 168 day absence and making a debut for his new yard and being ridden by today's jockey for the first time, he was still able to see of 3 of today's rivals in the process.

Yes, he's up 3lbs for the win, but he seemed to have more to give last time and should could on for having had the run. Chuck in a handy draw in stall 1 and we should be set for a good run for our money, especially at odds that just looked too long to me.

Numerically, he's suited to the task by already winning 4 from 12 on the Flat, including...

  • 4/9 with the word Good in the official going description
  • 3/5 in handicaps
  • 2/8 at 7f
  • 2/2 going right handed
  • 2/2 in April
  • 1/1 at Class 3 and 1/1 for new trainer Garry Moss
  • 1/1 under jockey Jason Hart, 1/1 here at Musselburgh and ultimately 1/1 over C&D.

Based on the small numbers of runners Garry Moss sends out, you'll not be surprised to see that Porth Swtan is his only runner anywhere today (more on this shortly), as he was 18 days ago and in fact this is only Garry's third entry since Valentine's Day 2017, but that aside, the ones he has sent here to Musselburgh have done well enough.

Overall, his runners are 8/21 (38.1% SR) for 11/13pts (+53% ROI), but this stretches back as far as 2008, so to avoid my decision being clouded by old data, I'm focusing on his record here over the last three seasons ie since April 2016, where his record stands at 6 from 12 (50% SR) for 13.67pts (+114% ROI), all in Flat handicaps.

Of this dozen runners...

  • those sent off at 11/8 to 5/1 are 5/9 (55.6%) for 9.4pts (+104.5%)
  • those last seen 6-25 days ago are 5/8 (62.5%) for 10.4pts (+130%)
  • males are 4/8 (50%) for 11.77pts (+147.1%)
  • 4 yr olds are 3/6 (50%) for 10.16pts (+169.3%)
  • those with 1 previous C&D win are 3/3 (100%) for 7.9pts (+263.3%)
  • at Class 3, it's 2/3 (66.6%, the other was placed!) for 7.88pts (+262.8%)
  • those ridden by Jason Hart are 2/2 (100%) for 8.88pts (+444%)
  • and in April, they are 2/2 (100%) for 7.73pts (+386.5%)

...whilst those sent off at 11/8 to 5/1, some 6-25 days after their last run are 5 from 7 (57.1% SR) for 11.4pts (+162.9%).

But wait! As the patently unfunny "comedian" Jimmy Cricket was fond of saying : there's more!

Earlier I said that Garry only had the one runner today, well it turns out these solo travellers tend to more than pay for the diesel to get them to track, as since 2015 when having just one runner on the day, Garry is 17 from 87 (19.5% SR) for 63.9pts (+73.4% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 16/74 (21.6%) for 72.4pts (+97.8%) in handicaps
  • 15/69 (21.7%) for 73.4pts (+106.4%) from male runners
  • 12/48 (25%) for 77.9pts (+162.4%) within 90 miles of his yard
  • 11/49 (22.5%) for 72.6pts (+148.2%) at 11-45 days since last run
  • 11/50 (22%) for 33pts (+66%) on the Flat
  • 9/31 (29%) for 74pts (+238.8%) from 4/5 yr olds
  • 9/31 (29%) for 59.8pts (193%) over 7f/1m
  • 5/11 (45.6%) for 36pts (+327.4%) in April
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.19pts (+131.3%) here at Musselburgh
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 7.03pts (+100.4%) from those with 1 previous C&D win
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 7.67pts (+85.2%) at Class 3
  • and 3/13 (23.1%) for 3.87pts (+29.8%) with Jason Hart in the saddle...

...whilst from the above...male handicappers sent out on their own less than 90 miles from how after a break of just 11-45 days are 8 from 21 (38.1% SR) for 84.1pts (+400.5% ROI)... I could go on with more data/stats, but I don't want to bore you into submission.

So, happy Easter everyone, Matt's in the hotseat for Monday's pick, I'll be posting Tuesday's selection late on Monday night...

...and I'll sign off with... a 1pt win bet on Porth Swtan @ 9/2 BOG as was offered by Bet365 & SkyBet with plenty of 4/1 BOG widely available at 5.30pm on Good Friday (12.30pm here). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Monday's pick was...

5.45 Newcastle : Busy Street @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (beaten by 2 lengths, report to follow)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

City Tour 5/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Handicap  for 3yo over 7f on Good ground worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?...

Just 3 previous runs to date for this 3 yr old colt and he returns from his winter break to make a handicap debut on quicker ground than he's seen before and at a lower grade than previous. This could all point to a bit of a plot job, but others would know far about those things than I do : I'll just stick to the facts/numbers!

We're with the tried & tested Johnston/Fanning combination today and unsurprisingly, they're doing well again having already clocked up 20 winners from 67 (29.9% SR) for 56.7pts (+84.7% ROI) profit in 2019 and both have good records at this venue.

In fact, Mark Johnston's runners are 72 from 360 (20% SR) for 62.5pts (+17.4% ROI) here at Musselburgh since 2012 and whilst that's excellent, jockey choice plays a massive part in his success.

On the occasions, he hasn't been able to secure Joe Fanning's services, those 360 runners are just 16/137 (11.7%) for a mere 6.6pts (4.82%) profit, but when Joe has been available to ride Mark's horses here, they have won 56 of 223 (25.1% SR) for 55.9pts (+25.1% ROI), from which...

  • those visiting Musselburgh for the first time are 41/163 (25.2%) for 52.1pts (+32%)
  • 3 yr olds are 30/110 (27.3%) for 21.9pts (+20%)
  • those with no previous career wins are 24/78 (30.8%) for 39.4pts (+50.5%)
  • those with three or fewer career runs are 24/76 (31.6%) for 34.4pts (+45.3%)
  • over this 7f course and distance : 21/75 (28%) for 43.1pts (+57.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 24/73 (32.9%) for 18.6pts (+25.4%)
  • in April : 5/19 (26.3%) for 2.1pts (+10.9%)
  • and with horses coming off a 3-9 month break : 6/14 (42.9%) for 5pts (+35.7%)

...and from the above... 2/3 yr olds with no wins from 0 to 3 previous career runs and now coming to Musselburgh for the first time are 19 from 56 (33.9% SR) for 41.3pts (+73.7% ROI), including...

  •  Class 5 : 8/26 (30.8%) for 5.2pts (+20%)
  • at this 7f C&D : 7/25 (28%) for 7.4pts (+29.5%)
  • in April : 4/6 (66.6%) for 12.1pts (+200.8%)
  • and after a 3-9 month absence : 4/6 (66.6%) for 6.2pts (+103.3%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on City Tour 5/1 BOG which was available from Hills at 6.00pm on Monday, as it had been since shortly after 4pm! Not sure wy the other firms haven't opened, but when they do I'll update. 4/1 BOG  seems to be the par at 6.55pm, so in the interests of clarity/fairness I'll declare my results at that price. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Wednesday's Pick was...

8.30 Kempton : Rivas Rob Roy @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Chased leader, every chance over 1f out, ridden and chased winner approaching final furlong, no impression inside final furlong, lost 2nd post)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sky Khan 10/3 or 3/1 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 3, 4yo+, Handicap Hurdle over 3m on Good ground, worth £6433 to the winner...

Why?

As I seem to have gone "off the boil" (hardly ideal with that big meeting approaching), I could do with ending the month on a high via a 10 yr old gelding (yes, desperate times!) who was a runner-up at Kelso 37 days ago, but now drops in class, steps up in trip and is effectively 6lbs better off via an easing of his mark and the booking of a 5lb claimer who has the made the frame on both previous outings with this horse.

Our trainer, today, is Lucinda Russell, who has been at this game long enough to know what she's doing and she, like me, knows that she's in with a chance at Musselburgh with horses deemed by the market to be "in with a chance". If that's a little vague, let's put it into numbers...

Lucinda Russell + Musselburgh + shorter than 9/1 SP + 2015-19 = 25/108 (23.2% SR) for 35.5pts (+32.9% ROI), a handy little starting point if you pitched up at the track 5 minutes before racing starts. I, however, have the benefit of time (too much, some would say) to dig deeper into those runners to see which ones in particular are best to follow. After all, that angle is good but has 83 losers!

So, how about taking the 108 and finding out that...

  • males are 24/94 (25.5%) for 41.5pts (+44.1%)
  • handicappers : 24/90 (26.7%) for 44.3pts (+49.2%)
  • 7-11 yr olds : 18/65 (27.7%) for 45.3pts (+69.7%)
  • hurdlers : 14/57 (24.6%) for 34.2pts (+60%)
  • £4k to £8k prize money : 13/48 (27.1%) for 22.5pts (+46.8%)
  • handicap hurdlers : 13/43 (30.2%) for 39pts (+90.8%)
  • stepping up in trip : 9/35 (25.7%) for 17.6pts (+50.3%)
  • 31-45 days since last run : 11/33 (33.3%) for 37.4pts (+113.3%)
  • over this 3m trip : 9/27 (33.3%) for 17.9pts (+66.2%)
  • LTO runners-up are 7/21 (33.3%) for 12.4pts (+59%)
  • in February : 5/20 (25%) for 6.47pts (+32.4%)
  • Class droppers are 5/19 (26.3%) for 11.2pts (+59%)
  • and at Class 3 : 4/15 (26.7%) for 11.07pts (+73.8%)

And if you wanted just around a third of the original sample size, but retaining half of the winners, then male handicap hurdlers competing for less than £8k are 12 from 36 (33.33% SR) for healthy profits of 38pts at an ROI of some 105.5% and closer inspection of these 36 runners shows that...

  • 31-45 dslr = 8/15 (53.3%) for 34pts (+226.4%)
  • 3m C&D : 6/13 (46.2%) for 21.5pts (+165.1%)
  • Up in trip : 6/10 (60%) for 32.23pts (+322.3%)
  • February : 3/7 (42.9%) for 12.7pts (+181.2%)
  • and class droppers are also 3/7 (42.9%), but for 7.7pts profit (+110%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sky Khan 10/3 or 3/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power respectively at 5.45pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Thursday's Pick was...

2.05 Market Rasen : Ontopoftheworld @ 3/1 BOG PU at 7/1 (Led, headed 8th, dropped to rear 10th, eased after 4 out, pulled up before 3 out)

Friday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Elmono @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 3-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ Novices Limited Handicap Chase over 2m7½f on Good ground worth £4938 to the winner...

Why?

As usual, I'll have more to say on this a little later...

...but for now, it's a 1pt win bet on Elmono @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by Betfair and Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. A quick headsup about the next couple of picks : I'm away for the weekend from tomorrow afternoon, so Matt's in the hotseat for Saturday's pick and I'll be doing Monday's pick when I get home, but it won't appear until after midnight Sunday at the earliest! Sorry for any inconvenience caused.

Saturday's Pick was...

3.35 Sandown : Monsieur Lecoq @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Tracked leader until 3rd, tracked leading pair, 2nd again after 3 out, led travelling well approaching next, came clear before last, won easily by 9 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 1m7½f on Good ground worth £4159 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old filly was third over this course and distance just 6 days ago and would certainly have fared better but for a mistake at the last. A better jumping display under the same jockey off the same mark today should be enough for her to at least be in the mix on the run-in.

Her trainer, Jim Goldie, is 11 from 69 (15.9% SR) for 21.07pts (+30.5% ROI) with sub-12/1 Musselburgh handicap hurdlers since 2008 and to ensure we're not relying on old data, we'll focus on those from 2013 onwards who are 7/40 (17.5% SR) for 18.63pts (+46.6% ROI).

And of those 40...

  • those who raced in the previous 45 days are 6/36 (16.6%) for 17.82pts (+49.5%)
  • those with a top 3 finish LTO are 3/12 (25%) for 13.16pts (+109.7%)
  • top 3 finish LTO in the previous 45 days = 3/11 (27.3%) for 14.16pts (+128.8%)
  • those ridden by Callum Bewley : 2/9 (22.2%) for 7.28pts (+80.9%)
  • Bewley + top 3 LTO = 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.28pts (+442.6%), with all three having raced in the previous 45 days.

Also, over the last two years, Jim Goldie's handicappers turned back out after just 4 to 10 days rest are 33/199 (16.6% SR) for 253.2pts (+127.2% ROI), from which...

  • 3-5 yr olds are 21/105 (20%) for 76pts (+72.3%)
  • Same OR as LTO : 16/101 (15.8%) for 209.3pts (+207.3%)
  • Same Class as LTO : 19/100 (19%) for 233.6pts (+233.6%)
  • Within o.5f of LTO trip : 18/98 (18.4%) for 110.2pts (+112.4%)
  • Females are 14/69 (20.3%) for 102.8pts (+148.9%)
  • Same jockey as LTO : 13/63 (20.6%) for 48.2pts (+76.6%)
  • Class 4 : 6/43 (14%) for 122.8pts (+285.5%)
  • at Musselburgh : 4/16 (25%) for 3.6pts (+14.4%)
  • and 3-5 yr old females at the same OR, class and distance as LTO are 3/9 (33.3%) for 16.44pts (+182.7%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG as was available from pretty much everywhere at 6.50pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Saturday's Pick was...

3.35 Sandown : Monsieur Lecoq @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Tracked leader until 3rd, tracked leading pair, 2nd again after 3 out, led travelling well approaching next, came clear before last, won easily by 9 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 1m7½f on Good ground worth £4159 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old filly was third over this course and distance just 6 days ago and would certainly have fared better but for a mistake at the last. A better jumping display under the same jockey off the same mark today should be enough for her to at least be in the mix on the run-in.

Her trainer, Jim Goldie, is 11 from 69 (15.9% SR) for 21.07pts (+30.5% ROI) with sub-12/1 Musselburgh handicap hurdlers since 2008 and to ensure we're not relying on old data, we'll focus on those from 2013 onwards who are 7/40 (17.5% SR) for 18.63pts (+46.6% ROI).

And of those 40...

  • those who raced in the previous 45 days are 6/36 (16.6%) for 17.82pts (+49.5%)
  • those with a top 3 finish LTO are 3/12 (25%) for 13.16pts (+109.7%)
  • top 3 finish LTO in the previous 45 days = 3/11 (27.3%) for 14.16pts (+128.8%)
  • those ridden by Callum Bewley : 2/9 (22.2%) for 7.28pts (+80.9%)
  • Bewley + top 3 LTO = 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.28pts (+442.6%), with all three having raced in the previous 45 days.

Also, over the last two years, Jim Goldie's handicappers turned back out after just 4 to 10 days rest are 33/199 (16.6% SR) for 253.2pts (+127.2% ROI), from which...

  • 3-5 yr olds are 21/105 (20%) for 76pts (+72.3%)
  • Same OR as LTO : 16/101 (15.8%) for 209.3pts (+207.3%)
  • Same Class as LTO : 19/100 (19%) for 233.6pts (+233.6%)
  • Within o.5f of LTO trip : 18/98 (18.4%) for 110.2pts (+112.4%)
  • Females are 14/69 (20.3%) for 102.8pts (+148.9%)
  • Same jockey as LTO : 13/63 (20.6%) for 48.2pts (+76.6%)
  • Class 4 : 6/43 (14%) for 122.8pts (+285.5%)
  • at Musselburgh : 4/16 (25%) for 3.6pts (+14.4%)
  • and 3-5 yr old females at the same OR, class and distance as LTO are 3/9 (33.3%) for 16.44pts (+182.7%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG as was available from pretty much everywhere at 6.50pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Monday's Pick was...

1.40 Uttoxeter : Gonnabegood @ 11/2 BOG PU at 11/4 (Prominent, driven 14th, soon beaten, pulled up before 2 out)

Tuesday's first pick of the year runs in the...

2.15 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chica Buena @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 2, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on Good ground worth £19494 to the winner...

Why?

Well, as it's New Year's Eve/Day depending on when/if you're reading this, I'm going to keep it brief as we've all more important things to do!

So, we have an in-form now 4yr old filly who has won four races on the bounce since finishing as a runner up in a grade 3 event in Ireland last year, including winning a Listed event by some 23 lengths at Aintree last time out 24 days ago.

That win took her record for her new trainer to 3 from 3 and today's jockey Brian Hughes was on board for all three rides.

And that new trainer?

...is Keith Dalgleish, whose hurdlers priced at 10/1 and shorter are 9 from 29 (31% SR) for 11.7pts (+40.3% ROI) profit, including of relevance today...

  • on Good ground : 5/14 (35.7%) for 7.57pts (+54.1%)
  • in handicaps : 4/14 (28.6%) for 8.95pts (+64%)
  • in December/January : 4/12 (33.3%) for 16.91pts (+140.9%)
  • 3/4 yr olds are 4/10 (40%) for 18.3pts (+183%)
  • 16-45 dslr : 6/15 (40%) for 15.1pts (+100.7%)
  • over this 1m7½f course and distance : 2/7 (28.6%) for 5.82pts (+83.2%)
  • and LTO winners are 3 from 4 (75%) for 3.51pts (+87.8%)

...and this simple approach gives us... a 1pt win bet on Chica Buena @ 4/1 BOG, as was available from Betfair, BetVictor, Coral & Hills at 7.25pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Saturday's Pick was...

8.15 Wolverhampton : Fume @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Chased leaders, ridden to lead inside final furlong, headed towards finish and beaten by a neck) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Why?

Nice and simple today with a 5 yr old gelding who toughed it out to virtually make all when winning at Bangor two starts ago. He was then only 7th of 14 on his handicap debut at Kelso next/last time out, having weakened very badly in the closing stages from a position where he had every chance 2 out. He has, however, had a wind op since then and if that does the trick, a mark of 115 might be too low for this one.

Stat-wise, it's pretty simple as I intimated in my pre-amble : trainer Donald McCain + Musselburgh + 2012-18 = 45 from 195 (23.1% SR) for 56.1pts (+28.8% ROI), from which...

  • Class 4 runners are 21/82 (25.6%) for 51.3pts (+62.6%)
  • 2016-18 = 15/65 (23.1%) for 34.7pts (+53.4%)
  • over this 2m trip : 24/62 (38.7%) for 59.5pts (+96%)
  • 5 yr olds are 14/39 (35.9%) for 19.3pts (+49.6%)
  • and his handicap hurdlers are 6/27 (22.2%) for 26.6pts (+98.7%) since the start of 2016...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Val Mome @ 5/1 BOG, as offered by at least half a dozen firms at 5.30pm on Sunday evening. (extra point is available from Bet365) To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Saturday's Pick was...

8.15 Wolverhampton : Fume @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Chased leaders, ridden to lead inside final furlong, headed towards finish and beaten by a neck) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Val Mome @ 5/1 BOG  

...in a 9-runner, Class 4,  Novices Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m on Good ground worth £4938 to the winner...

Why?

Nice and simple today with a 5 yr old gelding who toughed it out to virtually make all when winning at Bangor two starts ago. He was then only 7th of 14 on his handicap debut at Kelso next/last time out, having weakened very badly in the closing stages from a position where he had every chance 2 out. He has, however, had a wind op since then and if that does the trick, a mark of 115 might be too low for this one.

Stat-wise, it's pretty simple as I intimated in my pre-amble : trainer Donald McCain + Musselburgh + 2012-18 = 45 from 195 (23.1% SR) for 56.1pts (+28.8% ROI), from which...

  • Class 4 runners are 21/82 (25.6%) for 51.3pts (+62.6%)
  • 2016-18 = 15/65 (23.1%) for 34.7pts (+53.4%)
  • over this 2m trip : 24/62 (38.7%) for 59.5pts (+96%)
  • 5 yr olds are 14/39 (35.9%) for 19.3pts (+49.6%)
  • and his handicap hurdlers are 6/27 (22.2%) for 26.6pts (+98.7%) since the start of 2016...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Val Mome @ 5/1 BOG, as offered by at least half a dozen firms at 5.30pm on Sunday evening. (extra point is available from Bet365) To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!