Posts

Stat of the Day, 20th April 2019

Good Friday's pick was...

4.35 Bath : Bayshore Freeway @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Soon led, ridden and headed over 1f out, stayed on same pace, no chance with winner)

Easter Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.50 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Porth Swtan @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Good ground worth £12450 to the winner..

Why?...

On a bumper day of racing, I've got a stack of data surrounding this 4 yr old gelding who's has won 4 of 7 since the start of the last Flat season and was a winner last time out 18 days ago.

That was here at Musselburgh over today's course and distance and despite being on the comeback from a 168 day absence and making a debut for his new yard and being ridden by today's jockey for the first time, he was still able to see of 3 of today's rivals in the process.

Yes, he's up 3lbs for the win, but he seemed to have more to give last time and should could on for having had the run. Chuck in a handy draw in stall 1 and we should be set for a good run for our money, especially at odds that just looked too long to me.

Numerically, he's suited to the task by already winning 4 from 12 on the Flat, including...

  • 4/9 with the word Good in the official going description
  • 3/5 in handicaps
  • 2/8 at 7f
  • 2/2 going right handed
  • 2/2 in April
  • 1/1 at Class 3 and 1/1 for new trainer Garry Moss
  • 1/1 under jockey Jason Hart, 1/1 here at Musselburgh and ultimately 1/1 over C&D.

Based on the small numbers of runners Garry Moss sends out, you'll not be surprised to see that Porth Swtan is his only runner anywhere today (more on this shortly), as he was 18 days ago and in fact this is only Garry's third entry since Valentine's Day 2017, but that aside, the ones he has sent here to Musselburgh have done well enough.

Overall, his runners are 8/21 (38.1% SR) for 11/13pts (+53% ROI), but this stretches back as far as 2008, so to avoid my decision being clouded by old data, I'm focusing on his record here over the last three seasons ie since April 2016, where his record stands at 6 from 12 (50% SR) for 13.67pts (+114% ROI), all in Flat handicaps.

Of this dozen runners...

  • those sent off at 11/8 to 5/1 are 5/9 (55.6%) for 9.4pts (+104.5%)
  • those last seen 6-25 days ago are 5/8 (62.5%) for 10.4pts (+130%)
  • males are 4/8 (50%) for 11.77pts (+147.1%)
  • 4 yr olds are 3/6 (50%) for 10.16pts (+169.3%)
  • those with 1 previous C&D win are 3/3 (100%) for 7.9pts (+263.3%)
  • at Class 3, it's 2/3 (66.6%, the other was placed!) for 7.88pts (+262.8%)
  • those ridden by Jason Hart are 2/2 (100%) for 8.88pts (+444%)
  • and in April, they are 2/2 (100%) for 7.73pts (+386.5%)

...whilst those sent off at 11/8 to 5/1, some 6-25 days after their last run are 5 from 7 (57.1% SR) for 11.4pts (+162.9%).

But wait! As the patently unfunny "comedian" Jimmy Cricket was fond of saying : there's more!

Earlier I said that Garry only had the one runner today, well it turns out these solo travellers tend to more than pay for the diesel to get them to track, as since 2015 when having just one runner on the day, Garry is 17 from 87 (19.5% SR) for 63.9pts (+73.4% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 16/74 (21.6%) for 72.4pts (+97.8%) in handicaps
  • 15/69 (21.7%) for 73.4pts (+106.4%) from male runners
  • 12/48 (25%) for 77.9pts (+162.4%) within 90 miles of his yard
  • 11/49 (22.5%) for 72.6pts (+148.2%) at 11-45 days since last run
  • 11/50 (22%) for 33pts (+66%) on the Flat
  • 9/31 (29%) for 74pts (+238.8%) from 4/5 yr olds
  • 9/31 (29%) for 59.8pts (193%) over 7f/1m
  • 5/11 (45.6%) for 36pts (+327.4%) in April
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.19pts (+131.3%) here at Musselburgh
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 7.03pts (+100.4%) from those with 1 previous C&D win
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 7.67pts (+85.2%) at Class 3
  • and 3/13 (23.1%) for 3.87pts (+29.8%) with Jason Hart in the saddle...

...whilst from the above...male handicappers sent out on their own less than 90 miles from how after a break of just 11-45 days are 8 from 21 (38.1% SR) for 84.1pts (+400.5% ROI)... I could go on with more data/stats, but I don't want to bore you into submission.

So, happy Easter everyone, Matt's in the hotseat for Monday's pick, I'll be posting Tuesday's selection late on Monday night...

...and I'll sign off with... a 1pt win bet on Porth Swtan @ 9/2 BOG as was offered by Bet365 & SkyBet with plenty of 4/1 BOG widely available at 5.30pm on Good Friday (12.30pm here). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 2nd April 2019

Monday's pick was...

5.45 Newcastle : Busy Street @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (beaten by 2 lengths, report to follow)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

City Tour 5/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Handicap  for 3yo over 7f on Good ground worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?...

Just 3 previous runs to date for this 3 yr old colt and he returns from his winter break to make a handicap debut on quicker ground than he's seen before and at a lower grade than previous. This could all point to a bit of a plot job, but others would know far about those things than I do : I'll just stick to the facts/numbers!

We're with the tried & tested Johnston/Fanning combination today and unsurprisingly, they're doing well again having already clocked up 20 winners from 67 (29.9% SR) for 56.7pts (+84.7% ROI) profit in 2019 and both have good records at this venue.

In fact, Mark Johnston's runners are 72 from 360 (20% SR) for 62.5pts (+17.4% ROI) here at Musselburgh since 2012 and whilst that's excellent, jockey choice plays a massive part in his success.

On the occasions, he hasn't been able to secure Joe Fanning's services, those 360 runners are just 16/137 (11.7%) for a mere 6.6pts (4.82%) profit, but when Joe has been available to ride Mark's horses here, they have won 56 of 223 (25.1% SR) for 55.9pts (+25.1% ROI), from which...

  • those visiting Musselburgh for the first time are 41/163 (25.2%) for 52.1pts (+32%)
  • 3 yr olds are 30/110 (27.3%) for 21.9pts (+20%)
  • those with no previous career wins are 24/78 (30.8%) for 39.4pts (+50.5%)
  • those with three or fewer career runs are 24/76 (31.6%) for 34.4pts (+45.3%)
  • over this 7f course and distance : 21/75 (28%) for 43.1pts (+57.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 24/73 (32.9%) for 18.6pts (+25.4%)
  • in April : 5/19 (26.3%) for 2.1pts (+10.9%)
  • and with horses coming off a 3-9 month break : 6/14 (42.9%) for 5pts (+35.7%)

...and from the above... 2/3 yr olds with no wins from 0 to 3 previous career runs and now coming to Musselburgh for the first time are 19 from 56 (33.9% SR) for 41.3pts (+73.7% ROI), including...

  •  Class 5 : 8/26 (30.8%) for 5.2pts (+20%)
  • at this 7f C&D : 7/25 (28%) for 7.4pts (+29.5%)
  • in April : 4/6 (66.6%) for 12.1pts (+200.8%)
  • and after a 3-9 month absence : 4/6 (66.6%) for 6.2pts (+103.3%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on City Tour 5/1 BOG which was available from Hills at 6.00pm on Monday, as it had been since shortly after 4pm! Not sure wy the other firms haven't opened, but when they do I'll update. 4/1 BOG  seems to be the par at 6.55pm, so in the interests of clarity/fairness I'll declare my results at that price. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 28th February 2019

Wednesday's Pick was...

8.30 Kempton : Rivas Rob Roy @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Chased leader, every chance over 1f out, ridden and chased winner approaching final furlong, no impression inside final furlong, lost 2nd post)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sky Khan 10/3 or 3/1 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 3, 4yo+, Handicap Hurdle over 3m on Good ground, worth £6433 to the winner...

Why?

As I seem to have gone "off the boil" (hardly ideal with that big meeting approaching), I could do with ending the month on a high via a 10 yr old gelding (yes, desperate times!) who was a runner-up at Kelso 37 days ago, but now drops in class, steps up in trip and is effectively 6lbs better off via an easing of his mark and the booking of a 5lb claimer who has the made the frame on both previous outings with this horse.

Our trainer, today, is Lucinda Russell, who has been at this game long enough to know what she's doing and she, like me, knows that she's in with a chance at Musselburgh with horses deemed by the market to be "in with a chance". If that's a little vague, let's put it into numbers...

Lucinda Russell + Musselburgh + shorter than 9/1 SP + 2015-19 = 25/108 (23.2% SR) for 35.5pts (+32.9% ROI), a handy little starting point if you pitched up at the track 5 minutes before racing starts. I, however, have the benefit of time (too much, some would say) to dig deeper into those runners to see which ones in particular are best to follow. After all, that angle is good but has 83 losers!

So, how about taking the 108 and finding out that...

  • males are 24/94 (25.5%) for 41.5pts (+44.1%)
  • handicappers : 24/90 (26.7%) for 44.3pts (+49.2%)
  • 7-11 yr olds : 18/65 (27.7%) for 45.3pts (+69.7%)
  • hurdlers : 14/57 (24.6%) for 34.2pts (+60%)
  • £4k to £8k prize money : 13/48 (27.1%) for 22.5pts (+46.8%)
  • handicap hurdlers : 13/43 (30.2%) for 39pts (+90.8%)
  • stepping up in trip : 9/35 (25.7%) for 17.6pts (+50.3%)
  • 31-45 days since last run : 11/33 (33.3%) for 37.4pts (+113.3%)
  • over this 3m trip : 9/27 (33.3%) for 17.9pts (+66.2%)
  • LTO runners-up are 7/21 (33.3%) for 12.4pts (+59%)
  • in February : 5/20 (25%) for 6.47pts (+32.4%)
  • Class droppers are 5/19 (26.3%) for 11.2pts (+59%)
  • and at Class 3 : 4/15 (26.7%) for 11.07pts (+73.8%)

And if you wanted just around a third of the original sample size, but retaining half of the winners, then male handicap hurdlers competing for less than £8k are 12 from 36 (33.33% SR) for healthy profits of 38pts at an ROI of some 105.5% and closer inspection of these 36 runners shows that...

  • 31-45 dslr = 8/15 (53.3%) for 34pts (+226.4%)
  • 3m C&D : 6/13 (46.2%) for 21.5pts (+165.1%)
  • Up in trip : 6/10 (60%) for 32.23pts (+322.3%)
  • February : 3/7 (42.9%) for 12.7pts (+181.2%)
  • and class droppers are also 3/7 (42.9%), but for 7.7pts profit (+110%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sky Khan 10/3 or 3/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power respectively at 5.45pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th January 2019

Thursday's Pick was...

2.05 Market Rasen : Ontopoftheworld @ 3/1 BOG PU at 7/1 (Led, headed 8th, dropped to rear 10th, eased after 4 out, pulled up before 3 out)

Friday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Elmono @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 3-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ Novices Limited Handicap Chase over 2m7½f on Good ground worth £4938 to the winner...

Why?

As usual, I'll have more to say on this a little later...

...but for now, it's a 1pt win bet on Elmono @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by Betfair and Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. A quick headsup about the next couple of picks : I'm away for the weekend from tomorrow afternoon, so Matt's in the hotseat for Saturday's pick and I'll be doing Monday's pick when I get home, but it won't appear until after midnight Sunday at the earliest! Sorry for any inconvenience caused.

Stat of the Day, 7th January 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

3.35 Sandown : Monsieur Lecoq @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Tracked leader until 3rd, tracked leading pair, 2nd again after 3 out, led travelling well approaching next, came clear before last, won easily by 9 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 1m7½f on Good ground worth £4159 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old filly was third over this course and distance just 6 days ago and would certainly have fared better but for a mistake at the last. A better jumping display under the same jockey off the same mark today should be enough for her to at least be in the mix on the run-in.

Her trainer, Jim Goldie, is 11 from 69 (15.9% SR) for 21.07pts (+30.5% ROI) with sub-12/1 Musselburgh handicap hurdlers since 2008 and to ensure we're not relying on old data, we'll focus on those from 2013 onwards who are 7/40 (17.5% SR) for 18.63pts (+46.6% ROI).

And of those 40...

  • those who raced in the previous 45 days are 6/36 (16.6%) for 17.82pts (+49.5%)
  • those with a top 3 finish LTO are 3/12 (25%) for 13.16pts (+109.7%)
  • top 3 finish LTO in the previous 45 days = 3/11 (27.3%) for 14.16pts (+128.8%)
  • those ridden by Callum Bewley : 2/9 (22.2%) for 7.28pts (+80.9%)
  • Bewley + top 3 LTO = 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.28pts (+442.6%), with all three having raced in the previous 45 days.

Also, over the last two years, Jim Goldie's handicappers turned back out after just 4 to 10 days rest are 33/199 (16.6% SR) for 253.2pts (+127.2% ROI), from which...

  • 3-5 yr olds are 21/105 (20%) for 76pts (+72.3%)
  • Same OR as LTO : 16/101 (15.8%) for 209.3pts (+207.3%)
  • Same Class as LTO : 19/100 (19%) for 233.6pts (+233.6%)
  • Within o.5f of LTO trip : 18/98 (18.4%) for 110.2pts (+112.4%)
  • Females are 14/69 (20.3%) for 102.8pts (+148.9%)
  • Same jockey as LTO : 13/63 (20.6%) for 48.2pts (+76.6%)
  • Class 4 : 6/43 (14%) for 122.8pts (+285.5%)
  • at Musselburgh : 4/16 (25%) for 3.6pts (+14.4%)
  • and 3-5 yr old females at the same OR, class and distance as LTO are 3/9 (33.3%) for 16.44pts (+182.7%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG as was available from pretty much everywhere at 6.50pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th January 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

3.35 Sandown : Monsieur Lecoq @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Tracked leader until 3rd, tracked leading pair, 2nd again after 3 out, led travelling well approaching next, came clear before last, won easily by 9 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 1m7½f on Good ground worth £4159 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old filly was third over this course and distance just 6 days ago and would certainly have fared better but for a mistake at the last. A better jumping display under the same jockey off the same mark today should be enough for her to at least be in the mix on the run-in.

Her trainer, Jim Goldie, is 11 from 69 (15.9% SR) for 21.07pts (+30.5% ROI) with sub-12/1 Musselburgh handicap hurdlers since 2008 and to ensure we're not relying on old data, we'll focus on those from 2013 onwards who are 7/40 (17.5% SR) for 18.63pts (+46.6% ROI).

And of those 40...

  • those who raced in the previous 45 days are 6/36 (16.6%) for 17.82pts (+49.5%)
  • those with a top 3 finish LTO are 3/12 (25%) for 13.16pts (+109.7%)
  • top 3 finish LTO in the previous 45 days = 3/11 (27.3%) for 14.16pts (+128.8%)
  • those ridden by Callum Bewley : 2/9 (22.2%) for 7.28pts (+80.9%)
  • Bewley + top 3 LTO = 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.28pts (+442.6%), with all three having raced in the previous 45 days.

Also, over the last two years, Jim Goldie's handicappers turned back out after just 4 to 10 days rest are 33/199 (16.6% SR) for 253.2pts (+127.2% ROI), from which...

  • 3-5 yr olds are 21/105 (20%) for 76pts (+72.3%)
  • Same OR as LTO : 16/101 (15.8%) for 209.3pts (+207.3%)
  • Same Class as LTO : 19/100 (19%) for 233.6pts (+233.6%)
  • Within o.5f of LTO trip : 18/98 (18.4%) for 110.2pts (+112.4%)
  • Females are 14/69 (20.3%) for 102.8pts (+148.9%)
  • Same jockey as LTO : 13/63 (20.6%) for 48.2pts (+76.6%)
  • Class 4 : 6/43 (14%) for 122.8pts (+285.5%)
  • at Musselburgh : 4/16 (25%) for 3.6pts (+14.4%)
  • and 3-5 yr old females at the same OR, class and distance as LTO are 3/9 (33.3%) for 16.44pts (+182.7%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG as was available from pretty much everywhere at 6.50pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st January 2019

Monday's Pick was...

1.40 Uttoxeter : Gonnabegood @ 11/2 BOG PU at 11/4 (Prominent, driven 14th, soon beaten, pulled up before 2 out)

Tuesday's first pick of the year runs in the...

2.15 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chica Buena @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 2, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on Good ground worth £19494 to the winner...

Why?

Well, as it's New Year's Eve/Day depending on when/if you're reading this, I'm going to keep it brief as we've all more important things to do!

So, we have an in-form now 4yr old filly who has won four races on the bounce since finishing as a runner up in a grade 3 event in Ireland last year, including winning a Listed event by some 23 lengths at Aintree last time out 24 days ago.

That win took her record for her new trainer to 3 from 3 and today's jockey Brian Hughes was on board for all three rides.

And that new trainer?

...is Keith Dalgleish, whose hurdlers priced at 10/1 and shorter are 9 from 29 (31% SR) for 11.7pts (+40.3% ROI) profit, including of relevance today...

  • on Good ground : 5/14 (35.7%) for 7.57pts (+54.1%)
  • in handicaps : 4/14 (28.6%) for 8.95pts (+64%)
  • in December/January : 4/12 (33.3%) for 16.91pts (+140.9%)
  • 3/4 yr olds are 4/10 (40%) for 18.3pts (+183%)
  • 16-45 dslr : 6/15 (40%) for 15.1pts (+100.7%)
  • over this 1m7½f course and distance : 2/7 (28.6%) for 5.82pts (+83.2%)
  • and LTO winners are 3 from 4 (75%) for 3.51pts (+87.8%)

...and this simple approach gives us... a 1pt win bet on Chica Buena @ 4/1 BOG, as was available from Betfair, BetVictor, Coral & Hills at 7.25pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th November 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

8.15 Wolverhampton : Fume @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Chased leaders, ridden to lead inside final furlong, headed towards finish and beaten by a neck) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Why?

Nice and simple today with a 5 yr old gelding who toughed it out to virtually make all when winning at Bangor two starts ago. He was then only 7th of 14 on his handicap debut at Kelso next/last time out, having weakened very badly in the closing stages from a position where he had every chance 2 out. He has, however, had a wind op since then and if that does the trick, a mark of 115 might be too low for this one.

Stat-wise, it's pretty simple as I intimated in my pre-amble : trainer Donald McCain + Musselburgh + 2012-18 = 45 from 195 (23.1% SR) for 56.1pts (+28.8% ROI), from which...

  • Class 4 runners are 21/82 (25.6%) for 51.3pts (+62.6%)
  • 2016-18 = 15/65 (23.1%) for 34.7pts (+53.4%)
  • over this 2m trip : 24/62 (38.7%) for 59.5pts (+96%)
  • 5 yr olds are 14/39 (35.9%) for 19.3pts (+49.6%)
  • and his handicap hurdlers are 6/27 (22.2%) for 26.6pts (+98.7%) since the start of 2016...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Val Mome @ 5/1 BOG, as offered by at least half a dozen firms at 5.30pm on Sunday evening. (extra point is available from Bet365) To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th November 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

8.15 Wolverhampton : Fume @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Chased leaders, ridden to lead inside final furlong, headed towards finish and beaten by a neck) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Val Mome @ 5/1 BOG  

...in a 9-runner, Class 4,  Novices Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m on Good ground worth £4938 to the winner...

Why?

Nice and simple today with a 5 yr old gelding who toughed it out to virtually make all when winning at Bangor two starts ago. He was then only 7th of 14 on his handicap debut at Kelso next/last time out, having weakened very badly in the closing stages from a position where he had every chance 2 out. He has, however, had a wind op since then and if that does the trick, a mark of 115 might be too low for this one.

Stat-wise, it's pretty simple as I intimated in my pre-amble : trainer Donald McCain + Musselburgh + 2012-18 = 45 from 195 (23.1% SR) for 56.1pts (+28.8% ROI), from which...

  • Class 4 runners are 21/82 (25.6%) for 51.3pts (+62.6%)
  • 2016-18 = 15/65 (23.1%) for 34.7pts (+53.4%)
  • over this 2m trip : 24/62 (38.7%) for 59.5pts (+96%)
  • 5 yr olds are 14/39 (35.9%) for 19.3pts (+49.6%)
  • and his handicap hurdlers are 6/27 (22.2%) for 26.6pts (+98.7%) since the start of 2016...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Val Mome @ 5/1 BOG, as offered by at least half a dozen firms at 5.30pm on Sunday evening. (extra point is available from Bet365) To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th September 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

8.45 Chelmsford : Sonnet Rose @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 13/8 (Off the pace towards rear, still plenty to do 2f out, headway on outside over 1f out, hampered inside final furlong, kept on, too much to do)

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Zeshov @ 11/4 or 3/1 BOG  

In a 9-runner, Class 5, 1m Flat Handicap for 3yo+ on Good ground, worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding actually won this very race two years ago, when also down as carrying 9st 7lbs and more recently was only beaten by a head last time out. That was also over this course and distance, when he was nailed in the final strides 8 days ago. He runs off the same mark again today, so jockey Jamie Gormley's 3lb claim might just make all the difference here.

Jamie is riding well at present, winning 10 of his 54 rides (18.5% SR) over the last 4 weeks recording profits of 17.4pts at an ROI of 32.3% if anyone was backing him blindly and of those 54 rides, he is...

  • 9/48 (18.75%) for 19.2pts (+40.1%) on the Flat
  • 10/47 (21.3%) for 24.4pts (+52%) in handicaps
  • 9/41 (22%) for 26.2pts (+64%) in Flat handicaps
  • 6/29 (20.7%) for 16.3pts (+56.3%) in Scotland
  • 6/26 (23.1%) for 19.3pts (+74.3%) in Flat handicaps run in Scotland
  • 5/18 (27.8%) for 13.2pts (+73.6%) at Class 5
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 20.2pts (+184%) in Class 5 Flat handicaps
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 12.7pts (+211.3%) in Class 5 Flat handicaps run in Scotland!

I said that Zeshov won this race two years ago and narrowly failed over C&D last time out and these two runs form part of his 2 wins & 2 places from 5 runs at Musselburgh in total, including 2 wins, 2 places from four over this 1m course and distance : all at Class 5.

Now onto our trainer, Rebecca Bastiman, for she has done well here at this venue of late, seeing her horses win 10 of 45 (22.2% SR) handicaps over the last two seasons generating level stakes profits of 21.8pts (+48.6% ROI) and of these runners, who are all males by the way...

  • in fields of 6-10 runners : 9/34 (26.5%) for 26.9pts (+79.2%)
  • those rated (OR) 55-85 are 10/30 (33.3%) for 36.9pts (+123%)
  • 6-9 yr olds are 9/25 (36%) for 38.1pts (+152.4%)
  • at odds of 6/1 and shorter : 9/25 (36%) for 22.8pts (+91.2%)
  • 6-20 days since last run : 6/22 (27.3%) for 22.2pts (+101%)
  • won or beaten by less than 4L LTO : 7/18 (38.9%) for 17.6pts (+97.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 4/15 (26.7%) for 6.87pts (+45.8%)
  • and 7 yr olds are 3/9 (33.3%) for 6.83pts (+75.9%)

AND...from the above...6-9 yr olds rated 55-85 at odds of 6/1 and shorter in fields of 6-10 runners are 7/12 (58.3% SR) for 26.1pts (+217.8% ROI).

Although jockey Jamie Gormley has never actually ridden on this track for trainer Rebecca Bastiman before, the partnership has 3 wins from 8 (37.5% SR) for 5.83pts (+72.9% ROI) profit in Class 4/5 handicaps in Scotland this year, with a further 3 of the 5 losers making the frame...

...all pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Zeshov @ 11/4 or 3/1 BOG, prices offered by SkyBet & Bet365 respecively as of 5.45pm on Thursday evening. I will, of course, be settling at 11/4 BOG,. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 9th June

HAYDOCK – JUNE 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £56.10 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Haydock: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 4 (Sea Youmzain) & 2 (Podemos)

Leg 2 (2.50): 1 (Cribbs Causeway), 5 (God Given) & 4 (Fosun)

Leg 3 (3.25): 7 (Final Venture), 9 (Muthmir) & 4 (Blue De Vega)

Leg 4 (4.00): 3 (Emmaus), 2 (Dutch Connection) & 1 (D’Bai)

Leg 5 (4.35): 3 (Calder Prince) & 2 (Mickey)

Leg 6 (5.10): 1 (Last Page), 3 (Breaking Records) & 2 (Choice Encounter)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.15: SEA YOUMZAIN represents Mark Johnston’s yard which is approaching ‘boiling point’ now and with support coming in for his recent Nottingham winner, Mark’s Sea The Stars raider can follow up successfully. PODEMOS is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the card with which to open proceedings.

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2.50: Four-year-olds have won six of the last ten contests and CRIBBS CAUSEWAY and GOD GIVEN head this year’s vintage representatives from my viewpoint, the pair being listed in marginal order of preference.  That said, foreign raiders often represent decent value from a Placepot perspective which will, likely as not, be the case again with the German representative FOSUN having been declared.

Favourite factor: Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick this time around having won three renewals during the last decade during which time, all ten gold medallists scored at a top price of 10/1.  Half (6/12) of the favourites have finished in the frame (exact science) during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—God Given (soft)

 

3.25: FINAL VENTURE has been dropped nine spots by the official assessor since winning this event twelve months ago and cynics could argue that running off the same weight here suggests that Paul Midgley’s inmate is up against it, and then some!  Overnight support suggests that this might not be the attitude to take however and certainly from a Placepot perspective, I have no hesitation is adding Paul’s eight time winner into the equation.  Others to consider include MUTHMIR and BLUE DE VEGA, especially as Robert Cowell’s latter named raider is the pick of the two five-year-olds in the contest, with vintage representatives boasting four victories in the race during the last decade.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won four of the last eight renewals. That said, the four favourites before the last two market leaders won their respective events had finished out of the frame.

Record of the two course winners in the third race:

1/2—Gracious John (soft)

1/2—Final Venture (soft)

 

4.00: Four-year-olds boast the best recent record on the ‘John Of Gaunt’ event, snaring five contests during the last ten years and EMMAUS and D’BAI both offer serious form to bring into the contest on this occasion.  The pair is listed in order of preference with Roger Varian (Emmaus) getting into top form now, the trainer having secured three victories via his last six runners.  The main threat to vintage contenders this time around appears to be DUTCH CONNECTION.

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won four of the last ten contests.  Aside from a couple of rogue gold medallists at 33/1 and 10/1, the other eight renewals during the last decade have been claimed by horses starting at a top price of 6/1.  Six of the last eleven favourites during the last decade claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the two course winners in the fourth event:

1/2—Muntadab (soft)

1/1—Tabarrak (good to firm)

 

4.35: Tom Dascombe (and Michael Owen for that matter) hold this venue and Chester close to their hearts and the two inmates CALDER PRINCE and MICKEY both have sound claims in this grade/company on the best of their form lines.  I doubt whether both horses will finish out of the frame in all honesty, offering REPUTATION as the party pooper in the field if Tom and Michael are to be denied from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/2 favourite finished out with the washing.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth contest:

2/8—Calder Prince (good to firm & soft)

2/2—Pennsylvania Dutch (good & soft)

 

5.10: David Evans has two chances on the card but LAST PAGE is his main player from my viewpoint and 7/1 with Skybet this morning proved too big for yours truly to resist.  Three of the last four winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-5, stats which also bring BREAKING RECORDS and CHOICE ENCOUNTER into the mix.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won two of the six renewals in the Placepot finale.  Five of the six market leaders have secured Placpot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 2nd June

EPSOM – JUNE 2 

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last seven years at Epsom on Derby Day:

2017: £503.60 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

2016: £1,364.50 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2015: £4,314.00 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

2014: £18.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners & 3 placed)

2013: £1,135.00 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £123.10 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £304.50 (6 favourites: No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

Average dividend: £1,108.98 - 45 favourites - 12 winners - 13 placed - 20 unplaced

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Epsom: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Poet’s Prince) & 5 (Ship Of The Fen)

Leg 2 (2.35): 3 (Shenanigans), 5 (Stage Name) & 1 (Diaphora)

Leg 3 (3.10): 3 (Caspian Dream) & 1 (Arod)

Leg 4 (3.45): 2 (Caspian Prince), 13 (Just That Lord), 16 (Tanasoq), 18 (Bahamian Sunset) & 12 (Harry Hurricane)

Leg 5 (4.30): 3 (Hazapour) & 11 (Young Rascal)

Leg 6 (5.15): 9 (Reshoun), 10 (Star Of The East) & 14 (Golden Wolf)

Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: As an additional guide for toteplacepot enthusiasts on Derby Day, I can reveal that the last fourteen Derby cards at Epsom have produced an average Placepot dividend of £831.51.  94 favourites have emerged via the 84 races resulting in the following Placepot favourite stats: 22 winners--28 placed--44 unplaced.  Ten of the last eleven winners of the opening event on the card have carried weights of 9-2 or less, stats which led me to suggest that

Goodwood Zodiac would outrun his price two years ago before William Knight’s raider finished second at 33/1.  Drochaid was short listed last year before winning at 11/2.  POET’S PRINCE and SHIP OF THE FEN have plenty to offer potential investors to kick start the day, whilst offering MACAQUE as an outsider to consider.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won during the study period.  13 of the 23 favourites have claimed Placepot positions in the process. Nine renewals have slipped by since the last favourite obliged.

Draw factor (ten furlongs – most recent result listed first):

3-7-6 (8 ran-good)

14-15-3 (15 ran-food to soft)

11-9-1 (13 ran-good)

6-3-5 (11 ran-good)

7-6-1 (11 ran-good)

7-13-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-6-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

11-1-9 (12 ran-good to firm)

1-15-7-12 (17 ran-good)

6-1-5 (12 ran-good)

10-1-2 (14 ran-good)

8-11-10 (15 ran-good to firm)

8-11-9 (11 ran-good)

1-14-16-2 (18 ran-good)

11-13-14-15 (17 ran-good)

1-3-7 (10 ran-soft)

1-6-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

1-14-7 (12 ran-good to soft)

2-3-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

11-9-5 (11 ran-good)

Epsom record of the course winner in the opening contest:

1/1—Corazon Espinado (good)

 

2.35: Four-year-olds have won ten of the last eighteen renewals of this contest and with half (4/8) of the declarations representing the vintage, the trend could well be extended. The pick of the quartet from my viewpoint are SHENANIGANS, STAGE NAME and DIAPHORA.  The trio are offered in order of preference whilst I’m not totally writing off the chance of the other vintage representative Soul Silver, despite the overnight quote of 25/1 for David Simcock’s Dragon Pulse filly.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last fifteen favourites have prevailed as have ten of the latest twenty market leaders, during which time the biggest priced gold medallist was returned at just 9/1.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

5-8-10 (10 ran-good)

4-7 (7 ran-good to soft)

1-4-8 (9 ran-good)

6-2-3 (10 ran-good)

1-9-2 (9 ran-good to soft)

6-3-1 (8 ran-good)

7-1-8 (8 ran-good)

5-7-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

5-8-7 (8 ran-good)

6-8-5 (9 ran-good)

6-4-5 (10 ran-good to soft)

5-2-3 (10 ran-good)

4 (3 ran-good)

10-1-5 (8 ran-good)

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4-5-1 (8 ran-good)

6-5 (6 ran-soft)

2-5-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

3-4-7 (10 ran-good to soft)

2-1 (6 ran-good to soft)

3-5-6 (8 ran-good)

 

3.10: I rarely mention the ‘sister’ bet of the toteplacepot but on this occasion I have some interesting stats to offer, with this race starting the ‘insurance’ (Quadpot) bet if that is the way you view the wager.  The average totequadpot dividend on Oaks day at Epsom during the last 14 years paid £100.58.  Fifty eight favourites emerged, resulting in 18 winners, 14 were placed and 26 unplaced.  It would help a great deal if this ‘dead eight’ field remained intact as I have left the race to last to see how many options I have relating to my permutation.  Just two runners are available to yours truly and the pin has somehow fallen on the pair CENTURY DREAM and course winner AROD.  The overnight reserve is listed as last year’s winner Sovereign Debt.

Favourite factor: Sixteen of the last twenty winners have scored at 8/1 or less, statistics which include six winning favourites.  That said, only four of the last nine favourites have secured Placepot positions.

Draw factor' (eight and a half furlongs):

2-6 (7 ran-good)

1-11 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-1 (7 ran-good)

1-5 (7 ran-good)

7-6 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-4 (6 ran-good)

1-8-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

8-2-9 (9 ran-good)

4-8-7 (8 ran-good)

5-8-4 (8 ran-good)

2-3 (5 ran-good)

2-5-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

1-4 (7 ran-good)

3-1-10 (11 ran-good)

9-11-3 (10 ran-good)

6-8-7 (9 ran-good to soft)

6-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

2-3 (5 ran-good)

4-2 (6 ran-good)

3-1-2 (10 ran-good)

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/2—Arod (good)

1/2—Sovereign Debt (good)

 

3.45: I tend to offer draw statistics in big races where possible for readers to determine where potential advantages lie, whether or not the powers that be have interfered with stall positions in recent years!  I leave it to readers to work out if there is any advantage to home in on. I have never been a 'sit on the fence' man like some 'media experts' who forever drone on about my type of work being futile given that it all depends on where the 'pace in the race' is coming from.  I think even 'they' will admit that in the Epsom Dash, pace is everywhere to be seen!  Six-year-olds have secured five of the last thirteen renewals, whilst nine of the last twelve gold medallists have carried a maximum burden of 9-1.  Horses emerging from ‘trap one’ have finished in the frame in five of the last nine renewals, winning on two occasions. JUST THAT LORD (1/20) demands to be included accordingly, whilst CASPIAN PRINCE is on a hat trick in the race has not faired too badly in trap two either!  His record of 4/5 at this unique circuit is probably one of the best of all time, particularly given the type of races that Michael Appleby’s grand servant generally contests.  My other trio against the field come from those drawn further wide, namely TANSOQ (16), BAHAMIAN SUNRISE (13) and HARRY HURRICANE (20) who might even have an advantage if plenty of moisture remains in the ground, albeit that is unlikely with the Epsom surface having been built on chalk.

Favourite factor: Only four of the last twenty favourites have finished in the frame.  Just one (5/1) market leader prevailed during the last eleven years during which time, the average price of the winner was 11/1 which is a perfectly respectable return in such a competitive race.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

1-10-12-5 (19 ran-good)

17-19-20-18 (17 ran-good to soft)

1-7-18-5 (20 ran-good to firm)

14-17-12-13 (19 ran-good)

19-1-5-13 (17 ran-good)

2-16-15-3 (20 ran-good to firm)

9-13-10-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

15-14-16-9 (19 ran-good to firm)

18-12-11-1 (18 ran-good)

8-19-12-17 (19 ran-good)

15-16-17-12 (18 ran-good)

17-8-20-5 (20 ran—good to firm)

10-3-5-15 (20 ran—good)

8-10-2-3 (20 ran—good to firm)

10-11-8 (11 ran—good)

1-6-9 (11 ran—good to soft)

12-6-7-17 (17 ran—good to firm)

3-1-12 (12 ran—good)

11-2-9 (11 ran—good)

10-2-4 (15 ran—good)

Course winners in the ‘Dash’:

1/6—Duke Of Firenze (good)

4/5—Caspian Prince (2 x good & 2 x good to soft)

1/4—Desert Law (good to firm)

1/5—Pettochside (good)

1/1—Bahamian Sunrise (good)

 

4.30: Aidan O’Brien has saddled five winners and twelve placed horses in the Derby during the last nineteen years and with six of those placed horses having been returned at 100/1--25/1--25/1--20/1--16/1 and 14/1, so few (if any) of his runners should be ignored.  York's Dante Stakes is far and away the best prep race these days, though it is worth mentioning that as far as I can recall, only Workforce has won this 'Blue Riband' having been beaten on the Knavesmire in that particular trial.  SAXON WARRIOR appears to be the main hope for the O’Brien team this year, though the favourite has been drifting in recent days, mainly because of the recent rain and the seemingly negative draw (1).  There is also the worry that the Deep Impact colt might not stay the trip after showing tremendous speed to win the Newmarket Guineas in such emphatic style.  I am leaving Ryan Moore’s mount out of my Placepot permutation, though mainly because Saxon Warrior will represent poor value for money, especially as if the favourite is beaten, there must be a chance that the defeat was caused because he failed to see out the twelve furlong which suggests that he might finish out of the money entirely. ROARING LION is another who has been friendless in the market these last few days and with Frankie waxing lyrical about his mount HAZAPOUR, the each way money on the day is likely to be for Dermot Weld’s Shamardal colt.  YOUNG RASCAL might have the most improvement in the field with plenty of untapped potential seemingly in place, especially having won at Chester after meeting plenty of trouble in running.  Of the really big priced runners, SEVENNA STAR could sneak the frame at around 25/1 for John Gosden who is seeking his third winner of this ‘Blue Riband’ event.

Favourite factor: Eighteen of the last nineteen winners of the Derby have scored at 7/1 or less, statistics which include seven favourites of one sort or another.  Eleven of the last fifteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions. Camelot was the first odds on favourite to win the Epsom Derby six years ago since Shergar obliged back in 1981.  Only a week ago, Saxon Warrior looked sure to be an odds on chance on Saturday, though that might not be the case now.

Draw factor:

14-13-7 (18 ran-good)

9-15-8 (16 ran-good to soft)

8-10-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

12-2-11 (16 ran-good)

10-5-11 (12 ran-good)

5-3-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

7-12-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

8-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

4-10-2 (12 ran-good)

3-14-10 (16 ran-good)

14-8-2 (17 ran-good)

10-11-18 (18 ran-good to firm)

5-12-4 (13 ran-good)

6-11-3 (14 ran-good)

4-16-8 (20 ran-good)

9-12-4 (12 ran-good to soft)

10-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

15-7-10 (15 ran-good)

1-5-17 (16 ran-good)

14-1-11 (15 ran-good)

Record of the course winner in the Derby this year:

1/2—Dee Ex Bee (heavy)

 

5.15: Four-year-olds have claimed ten of the last twenty renewals including nine of the last fourteen contests (vintage representatives have finished 1-2-3-4 twice in the last nine years + first, second and fourth four years ago). I am pinning my hopes on RESHOUN (drawn 14/19), STAR OF THE EAST (10) and GOLDEN WOLF (2).  The very best of luck with all your bets on Derby Day, hoping that the weather stays dry (aside from personal bias towards some horses) for those braving the elements on the Downs this year.

Favourite factor: Only one favourite has won the Placepot finale during the past twenty years, whilst just five of the other nineteen market leaders have additionally claimed Placepot positions.

Draw factor (twelve furlongs):

9-12-4 (10 ran-good)

16-14-17-5 (17 ran-good to soft)

13-1-19-17 (19 ran-good to firm)

5-2-8 (15 ran-good)

11-12-10 (12 ran-good)

11-14-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-7-6 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-1-13 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-8-2-9 (16 ran-good)

3-15-9 (15 ran-good)

16-1-9-15 (16 ran-good)

10-12-14 (14 ran-good to firm)

15-4-20-9 (good)

10-12-3 (13 ran-good)

4-6-2 (8 ran-good)

2-5 (7 ran-good to soft)

9-2-8 (11 ran-good to firm)

4-2-1 (12 ran-good)

3-5-7 (11 ran-good)

1-11-13 (15 ran-good)

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Great Hall (good)

1/2—Soldier In Action (good)

1/1—Star Of The East (good)

2/6—Lorelina (2 x good)

1/15—Whinging Willie (heavy)

2/8—Barwick (soft & haeavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 3rd May

REDCAR – MAY 3

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £4.40 (6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 placed)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 73.7% units went through – 7/2 & 15/8*

Race 2: 53.6% of the remaining units when through – 8/13* & 11/2

Race 3: 91.7% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* - 15/8 – 14/1

Race 4: 57.6% of the remaining units went through – 6/4* & 11/4

Race 5: 69.8% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 – 3/1* - 8/1

Race 6: 76.9% of the units secured the dividend – 7/4* - 9/2 – 11/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Redcar: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 2 (Tarrzan) & 7 (Willow Brook)

Leg 2 (2.40): 5 (Pretty Baby) & 4 (Gild Stone)

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Leg 3 (3.10): 5 (Robsdelight) & 3 (Ekanse)

Leg 4 (3.40): 4 (Maksab), 3 (Completion) & 2 (Poet’s Prince)

Leg 5 (4.10): 6 (Shovel It On) & 2 (Al Khan)

Leg 6 (4.40): 10 (Cristal Spirit), 1 (Canadian George) & 5 (Nibras Galaxy)

Suggested stake: 144 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.10: Let’s start with calling a spade a spade shall we by suggesting that there is some turgid sport on offer today.  That said, favourite backers had no cause to complain at the corresponding meeting last year and Mick Channon should be able to get them off to a decent start at the first time of asking today having declared his third placed debut representative TARRZAN who ran at Dundalk.  It’s disappointing to see Mick having to drop his new inmate into a seller which I guess should serve as a warning point for anyone looking to dive in too heavily his afternoon.  WILLOW BROOK receives the reserve nomination call.

Favourite factor:

Three of the four favourites have secured Placepot positions (stats include two winners at 8/11 and 4/6), though detectives are still combing the area looking for the inaugural unplaced 11/8 market leader.

 

2.40: Kevin Ryan won with all three of his runners yesterday and with GOLD STONE having won on her second start at Beverley the last day under similar (good) conditions, Kevin’s Havana Gold filly should go close here, albeit southern raiders PRETTY BABY and LEFT ALONE are obvious dangers.  The first named William Haggas raider ran well enough at York to suggest that her subsequent Chelmsford victory was predictable.  William’s Orpen filly has a chance to secure a success here en route to better things.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Redcar card.

 

3.10: Silvestre De Sousa attempts to ride his first winner for Gay Kelleway at the ninth attempt here having been booked to ride ROBSDELIGHT who has attracted money on the exchanges overnight.  We’re not talking massive investments you understand but on this card (or anywhere today I suspect), it will not take a great ammont of cash to move markets.  EKANSE carries famous colours and it’s worth noting that his mum Esterlina won on debut over a slightly longer trip, albeit she failed to add to that victory via four subsequent assignments.

Favourite factor: Another new race to assess on the Redcar programme.

 

3.40: A 16 ounce ‘hike’ for a decent run by MAKSAB at ‘headquarters’ last time out should ensure that Mick Channon’s other runner at this meeting (aside from Tarrzan in the opening event) will get involved at the business end of proceedings, especially as De Sousa retains the ride from Newmarket with (seemingly) the jockey having been offered an input as to where the three-year-old Makfi colt was going to run next.  COMPLETION and POET’S PRINCE add interest to this Class 4 contest.  Sha La La La Lee’s Wolverhampton success does not warrant a 13/8 price from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Racing at this venue has long since left me cold and this many new races on a card hardly changes my mind relating to this racecourse.

 

4.10: The terms and conditions of this event suggest that SHOVEL IT ON is exactly what favourite backs might to this afternoon relating to the David Evans three-year-old Elusive Pimpernel gelding.  Only AL KHAN represents any kind of threat, a scenario which increases given Kevin Ryan’s hat trick yesterday which means that the trainer has saddled five of his last seven runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 6/4 favourite duly obliged.

Record of the only course winner on the card:

1/7—Gaelic Wizard (good to soft)

 

4.40: Although plenty of respect is offered to CRISTAL SPIRIT (particularly from a Placepot perspective) value for money might be found elsewhere given the declarations of CANADIAN GEORGE (one of several interesting bookings for De Sousa on the card) and NIBRAS GALAXY.  It will be interesting to see if the exchange money for Moltoire grows as the hours tick by.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is yet another new race.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 31st March

KEMPTON – MARCH 31

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £190.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 88.8% units went through – 6/4* & 2/1

Race 2: 76.3% of the remaining units when through – 7/4* & 2/1

Race 3: 39.0% of the remaining units went through – 4/1, 10/1 & 13/2 (7/2)

Race 4: 15.4% of the remaining units went through – 4/1, 8/1 & 14/1 (7/4)

Race 5: 41.6% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 & 3/1 (5/2)

Race 6: 31.1% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1 (Win only – 2/1* unplaced)

*It’s worth noting that after two legs, the ‘pot was only worth £1.47 (after deductions) albeit successful investors were certainly happy enough by the end of play!  If you include the odd speculative selection, you are rarely far away from a decent return.

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Crossed Baton) & 2 (Tigre Du Terre)

Leg 2 (2.35): 1 (Autocratic) & 2 (Dommersen)

Leg 3 (3.10): 2 (Qaysar), 6 (Pivotal Man) & 1 (Plunger)

Leg 4 (3.45): 1 (Time To Blossom), 4 (Warm Oasis) & 5 (Stanley)

Leg 5 (4.20): 8 (Arab Moon), 14 (Kelly’s Dino) & 6 (Contrast)

Leg 6 (4.55): 2 (Solar Flare) & 6 (Sparkalot)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

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2.00: There is precious little between CROSSED BATON and TUGRE DU TERRE on the exchanges at the time of writing, the two horses vying for favouritism at around the 13/8 mark.  The pair is listed in order of preference, despite the fact that the lads and lasses in the trade press office had the latter named raider as a 4/5 chance overnight.  In the absence of any interest in the other eight contenders (the pick of which should prove to  be Caspar The Cub), this pair will see us safely through to the second leg, likely as not.

Favourite factor: Easter generally causes mass confusion because of the different weeks that that dates fall on year on year.  The Easter meeting was held on April 15 last year which is a good example of what I am trying to say.  Different races have been split between the first two meetings around this time of year down the years whereby I am not offering favourite today because of the ‘confusion’. The Placepot dividend and breakdown of the figures is that of Easter Saturday last year (April 15), some of the races which were included on today’s card – and some not!  This is one of the problems that so many meetings staged at an A/W venue can cause.

 

2.35: Although Sir Michael Stoute has a far better (percentage) record at other all weather tracks (particular those at Chelmsford, Newcastle and Lingfield), his entry AUTOCRATIC might prove too strong for FABRICATE at this stage of the season, whilst course winner DOMMERSEN cannot be entirely overlooked, especially at around the 7/1 mark this morning.

Record of the two course winners in the second race:

1/2—Dommersen

1/2—Snowy Winter

 

3.10: Although a strong overnight favourite, QAYSAR is relatively easy to back on the exchanges in the dead of night, edging towards 6/5 at the time of writing, having been quoted as a likely 8/11 chance by the trade press.  Fellow course winner PLUNGER and PIVOTAL MAN are standing strong against the market leader, with Emblazoned lacking support as dawn begins to break over Bristol, lighting up yet another wet start to the day.

Record of the two course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Plunger

1/1--Qaysar

 

3.45: After a blank score-sheet in February via seven runners, Simon Crisford boasts a 25% strike rate this month via two winners and TIME TO BLOSSOM could improve the ratio in this grade/company this afternoon.  A winner on his only start at the Sunbury venue, Simon’s dual beaten favourite in his last two races should repay the patience of connections and punters alike. WARM OASIS and STANLEY are nominated as the main threats at the business end of proceedings.

Record of the five course winners in the field:

1/1—Time To Blossom

2/3—Argus

1/3—Stanley

2/14—Berrahri

1/2—Vincent’s Forever

 

4.20: The positive course stats relating to ARAB MOON confirms my interest in William Knight’s four-year-old which was initially ignited by plenty of realistic money piling up on the Elnadim gelding in the positive exchange earlier this morning.  The dangers include KELLY’S DINO and CONTRAST.  With seven course winners in the contest, this race is likely to end many a Placepot interest, even if the first four contests on the card have gone to plan.

Record of the eight course winners in the fifth event:

1/2—Kyllachy Gala

1/12—Fire Fighting

1/5—Emenem

3/4—Arab Moon

1/3—Intrepidly

3/13—Jacob Cats

1/4—Wimpole Hall

 

4.55: Simon Dow has been going great guns of late and with SPARKALOT offering outstanding course statistics here, Simon’s celebrations could be extended over the course of the weekend.  That said, the 8/1 quotes in a place or two about SOLAR FLAIR make for interesting reading.  Beaten less than two lengths in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood the last day, William Knight’s six-year-old would surely go close if anywhere near cherry ripe after a long winter break.

Record of the three course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Solar Flare

1/3—Human Nature

4/6—Sparkalot

 

Record of the course winner in the seventh Kempton (non Placepot) at 5.30:

2/4—Lord Cooper

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 16th March 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

3.45 Hexham : Itstimeforapint @ 5/1 BOG  4th at 5/1 Held up last, mistake 2nd, left modest 4th 19th, ridden and weakened after 2 out.

And now we move on to Friday's...

11.30 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Nendrum @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 2m0.5f handicap hurdle (4yo+) on good ground worth £4,094 to the winner...

Why?

An in-form 9yr old gelding who has finished 3121 in his last four starts, all at today's Class 4 under today's jockey Jamie Hamilton with three of those races (311) taking place here at Musselburgh. He was last seen 30 days ago winning here by three lengths and putting another winner on the board for trainer Sandy Thomson, who over the last two years...

...has 35 winners from 195 NH (17.95% SR) runners yielding 224.1pts profit at an ROI of 114.9% and these figures include...

  • males at 35/174 (20.1%) for 245.1pts (+140.9%)
  • at Class 4 : 18/97 (18.6%) for 203.6pts (+209.9%)
  • over hurdles : 16/97 (16.5%) for 202.3pts (+208.5%)
  • at odds of 6/5 to 5/1 : 23/73 (31.5%) for 17.5pts (+23.9%)
  • over trips of 2m1f and shorter : 13/48 (27.1%) for 211.9pts (+441.5%)
  • here at Musselburgh : 10/36 (27.8%) for 28.7pts (+79.8%)
  • and 9yr olds are 5/16 (31.25%) for 8.56pts (+53.5%)

The above profit & respective ROI figures are admittedly skewed by a 66/1 non-handicap winner, but that doesn't detract from some excellent strike rates and if you just took male Class 4 handicap hurdlers at odds of 6/5 to 9/1, like we have today, you'd have 6 winners from 11 (54.6% SR) for 19pts (+172.5% ROI) profit, from which...

  • here at Musselburgh : 2/4 for 5.02pts
  • 2m1f and shorter : 2/2 for 5.02pts
  • 9 yr olds : 2/2 for 5.02pts

AND... 9 yr olds here at Musselburgh over 2m1f and shorter = 2/2 for 5.02pts, achieved by Nendrum on his two visits here with Jamie Hamilton in the saddle this year!

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Nendrum @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, SkyBet, SportPesa & 10Bet at 5.30pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 11.30 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!