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Stat of the Day, 26th November 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

8.15 Wolverhampton : Fume @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Chased leaders, ridden to lead inside final furlong, headed towards finish and beaten by a neck) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Why?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Nice and simple today with a 5 yr old gelding who toughed it out to virtually make all when winning at Bangor two starts ago. He was then only 7th of 14 on his handicap debut at Kelso next/last time out, having weakened very badly in the closing stages from a position where he had every chance 2 out. He has, however, had a wind op since then and if that does the trick, a mark of 115 might be too low for this one.

Stat-wise, it's pretty simple as I intimated in my pre-amble : trainer Donald McCain + Musselburgh + 2012-18 = 45 from 195 (23.1% SR) for 56.1pts (+28.8% ROI), from which...

  • Class 4 runners are 21/82 (25.6%) for 51.3pts (+62.6%)
  • 2016-18 = 15/65 (23.1%) for 34.7pts (+53.4%)
  • over this 2m trip : 24/62 (38.7%) for 59.5pts (+96%)
  • 5 yr olds are 14/39 (35.9%) for 19.3pts (+49.6%)
  • and his handicap hurdlers are 6/27 (22.2%) for 26.6pts (+98.7%) since the start of 2016...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Val Mome @ 5/1 BOG, as offered by at least half a dozen firms at 5.30pm on Sunday evening. (extra point is available from Bet365) To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th November 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

8.15 Wolverhampton : Fume @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Chased leaders, ridden to lead inside final furlong, headed towards finish and beaten by a neck) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Val Mome @ 5/1 BOG  

...in a 9-runner, Class 4,  Novices Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m on Good ground worth £4938 to the winner...

Why?

Nice and simple today with a 5 yr old gelding who toughed it out to virtually make all when winning at Bangor two starts ago. He was then only 7th of 14 on his handicap debut at Kelso next/last time out, having weakened very badly in the closing stages from a position where he had every chance 2 out. He has, however, had a wind op since then and if that does the trick, a mark of 115 might be too low for this one.

Stat-wise, it's pretty simple as I intimated in my pre-amble : trainer Donald McCain + Musselburgh + 2012-18 = 45 from 195 (23.1% SR) for 56.1pts (+28.8% ROI), from which...

  • Class 4 runners are 21/82 (25.6%) for 51.3pts (+62.6%)
  • 2016-18 = 15/65 (23.1%) for 34.7pts (+53.4%)
  • over this 2m trip : 24/62 (38.7%) for 59.5pts (+96%)
  • 5 yr olds are 14/39 (35.9%) for 19.3pts (+49.6%)
  • and his handicap hurdlers are 6/27 (22.2%) for 26.6pts (+98.7%) since the start of 2016...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Val Mome @ 5/1 BOG, as offered by at least half a dozen firms at 5.30pm on Sunday evening. (extra point is available from Bet365) To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th September 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

8.45 Chelmsford : Sonnet Rose @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 13/8 (Off the pace towards rear, still plenty to do 2f out, headway on outside over 1f out, hampered inside final furlong, kept on, too much to do)

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Zeshov @ 11/4 or 3/1 BOG  

In a 9-runner, Class 5, 1m Flat Handicap for 3yo+ on Good ground, worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding actually won this very race two years ago, when also down as carrying 9st 7lbs and more recently was only beaten by a head last time out. That was also over this course and distance, when he was nailed in the final strides 8 days ago. He runs off the same mark again today, so jockey Jamie Gormley's 3lb claim might just make all the difference here.

Jamie is riding well at present, winning 10 of his 54 rides (18.5% SR) over the last 4 weeks recording profits of 17.4pts at an ROI of 32.3% if anyone was backing him blindly and of those 54 rides, he is...

  • 9/48 (18.75%) for 19.2pts (+40.1%) on the Flat
  • 10/47 (21.3%) for 24.4pts (+52%) in handicaps
  • 9/41 (22%) for 26.2pts (+64%) in Flat handicaps
  • 6/29 (20.7%) for 16.3pts (+56.3%) in Scotland
  • 6/26 (23.1%) for 19.3pts (+74.3%) in Flat handicaps run in Scotland
  • 5/18 (27.8%) for 13.2pts (+73.6%) at Class 5
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 20.2pts (+184%) in Class 5 Flat handicaps
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 12.7pts (+211.3%) in Class 5 Flat handicaps run in Scotland!

I said that Zeshov won this race two years ago and narrowly failed over C&D last time out and these two runs form part of his 2 wins & 2 places from 5 runs at Musselburgh in total, including 2 wins, 2 places from four over this 1m course and distance : all at Class 5.

Now onto our trainer, Rebecca Bastiman, for she has done well here at this venue of late, seeing her horses win 10 of 45 (22.2% SR) handicaps over the last two seasons generating level stakes profits of 21.8pts (+48.6% ROI) and of these runners, who are all males by the way...

  • in fields of 6-10 runners : 9/34 (26.5%) for 26.9pts (+79.2%)
  • those rated (OR) 55-85 are 10/30 (33.3%) for 36.9pts (+123%)
  • 6-9 yr olds are 9/25 (36%) for 38.1pts (+152.4%)
  • at odds of 6/1 and shorter : 9/25 (36%) for 22.8pts (+91.2%)
  • 6-20 days since last run : 6/22 (27.3%) for 22.2pts (+101%)
  • won or beaten by less than 4L LTO : 7/18 (38.9%) for 17.6pts (+97.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 4/15 (26.7%) for 6.87pts (+45.8%)
  • and 7 yr olds are 3/9 (33.3%) for 6.83pts (+75.9%)

AND...from the above...6-9 yr olds rated 55-85 at odds of 6/1 and shorter in fields of 6-10 runners are 7/12 (58.3% SR) for 26.1pts (+217.8% ROI).

Although jockey Jamie Gormley has never actually ridden on this track for trainer Rebecca Bastiman before, the partnership has 3 wins from 8 (37.5% SR) for 5.83pts (+72.9% ROI) profit in Class 4/5 handicaps in Scotland this year, with a further 3 of the 5 losers making the frame...

...all pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Zeshov @ 11/4 or 3/1 BOG, prices offered by SkyBet & Bet365 respecively as of 5.45pm on Thursday evening. I will, of course, be settling at 11/4 BOG,. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 9th June

HAYDOCK – JUNE 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £56.10 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Haydock: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 4 (Sea Youmzain) & 2 (Podemos)

Leg 2 (2.50): 1 (Cribbs Causeway), 5 (God Given) & 4 (Fosun)

Leg 3 (3.25): 7 (Final Venture), 9 (Muthmir) & 4 (Blue De Vega)

Leg 4 (4.00): 3 (Emmaus), 2 (Dutch Connection) & 1 (D’Bai)

Leg 5 (4.35): 3 (Calder Prince) & 2 (Mickey)

Leg 6 (5.10): 1 (Last Page), 3 (Breaking Records) & 2 (Choice Encounter)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.15: SEA YOUMZAIN represents Mark Johnston’s yard which is approaching ‘boiling point’ now and with support coming in for his recent Nottingham winner, Mark’s Sea The Stars raider can follow up successfully. PODEMOS is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the card with which to open proceedings.

 

2.50: Four-year-olds have won six of the last ten contests and CRIBBS CAUSEWAY and GOD GIVEN head this year’s vintage representatives from my viewpoint, the pair being listed in marginal order of preference.  That said, foreign raiders often represent decent value from a Placepot perspective which will, likely as not, be the case again with the German representative FOSUN having been declared.

Favourite factor: Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick this time around having won three renewals during the last decade during which time, all ten gold medallists scored at a top price of 10/1.  Half (6/12) of the favourites have finished in the frame (exact science) during the study period.

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Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—God Given (soft)

 

3.25: FINAL VENTURE has been dropped nine spots by the official assessor since winning this event twelve months ago and cynics could argue that running off the same weight here suggests that Paul Midgley’s inmate is up against it, and then some!  Overnight support suggests that this might not be the attitude to take however and certainly from a Placepot perspective, I have no hesitation is adding Paul’s eight time winner into the equation.  Others to consider include MUTHMIR and BLUE DE VEGA, especially as Robert Cowell’s latter named raider is the pick of the two five-year-olds in the contest, with vintage representatives boasting four victories in the race during the last decade.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won four of the last eight renewals. That said, the four favourites before the last two market leaders won their respective events had finished out of the frame.

Record of the two course winners in the third race:

1/2—Gracious John (soft)

1/2—Final Venture (soft)

 

4.00: Four-year-olds boast the best recent record on the ‘John Of Gaunt’ event, snaring five contests during the last ten years and EMMAUS and D’BAI both offer serious form to bring into the contest on this occasion.  The pair is listed in order of preference with Roger Varian (Emmaus) getting into top form now, the trainer having secured three victories via his last six runners.  The main threat to vintage contenders this time around appears to be DUTCH CONNECTION.

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won four of the last ten contests.  Aside from a couple of rogue gold medallists at 33/1 and 10/1, the other eight renewals during the last decade have been claimed by horses starting at a top price of 6/1.  Six of the last eleven favourites during the last decade claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the two course winners in the fourth event:

1/2—Muntadab (soft)

1/1—Tabarrak (good to firm)

 

4.35: Tom Dascombe (and Michael Owen for that matter) hold this venue and Chester close to their hearts and the two inmates CALDER PRINCE and MICKEY both have sound claims in this grade/company on the best of their form lines.  I doubt whether both horses will finish out of the frame in all honesty, offering REPUTATION as the party pooper in the field if Tom and Michael are to be denied from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/2 favourite finished out with the washing.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth contest:

2/8—Calder Prince (good to firm & soft)

2/2—Pennsylvania Dutch (good & soft)

 

5.10: David Evans has two chances on the card but LAST PAGE is his main player from my viewpoint and 7/1 with Skybet this morning proved too big for yours truly to resist.  Three of the last four winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-5, stats which also bring BREAKING RECORDS and CHOICE ENCOUNTER into the mix.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won two of the six renewals in the Placepot finale.  Five of the six market leaders have secured Placpot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 2nd June

EPSOM – JUNE 2 

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last seven years at Epsom on Derby Day:

2017: £503.60 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

2016: £1,364.50 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2015: £4,314.00 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

2014: £18.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners & 3 placed)

2013: £1,135.00 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £123.10 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £304.50 (6 favourites: No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

Average dividend: £1,108.98 - 45 favourites - 12 winners - 13 placed - 20 unplaced

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Epsom: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Poet’s Prince) & 5 (Ship Of The Fen)

Leg 2 (2.35): 3 (Shenanigans), 5 (Stage Name) & 1 (Diaphora)

Leg 3 (3.10): 3 (Caspian Dream) & 1 (Arod)

Leg 4 (3.45): 2 (Caspian Prince), 13 (Just That Lord), 16 (Tanasoq), 18 (Bahamian Sunset) & 12 (Harry Hurricane)

Leg 5 (4.30): 3 (Hazapour) & 11 (Young Rascal)

Leg 6 (5.15): 9 (Reshoun), 10 (Star Of The East) & 14 (Golden Wolf)

Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: As an additional guide for toteplacepot enthusiasts on Derby Day, I can reveal that the last fourteen Derby cards at Epsom have produced an average Placepot dividend of £831.51.  94 favourites have emerged via the 84 races resulting in the following Placepot favourite stats: 22 winners--28 placed--44 unplaced.  Ten of the last eleven winners of the opening event on the card have carried weights of 9-2 or less, stats which led me to suggest that

Goodwood Zodiac would outrun his price two years ago before William Knight’s raider finished second at 33/1.  Drochaid was short listed last year before winning at 11/2.  POET’S PRINCE and SHIP OF THE FEN have plenty to offer potential investors to kick start the day, whilst offering MACAQUE as an outsider to consider.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won during the study period.  13 of the 23 favourites have claimed Placepot positions in the process. Nine renewals have slipped by since the last favourite obliged.

Draw factor (ten furlongs – most recent result listed first):

3-7-6 (8 ran-good)

14-15-3 (15 ran-food to soft)

11-9-1 (13 ran-good)

6-3-5 (11 ran-good)

7-6-1 (11 ran-good)

7-13-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-6-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

11-1-9 (12 ran-good to firm)

1-15-7-12 (17 ran-good)

6-1-5 (12 ran-good)

10-1-2 (14 ran-good)

8-11-10 (15 ran-good to firm)

8-11-9 (11 ran-good)

1-14-16-2 (18 ran-good)

11-13-14-15 (17 ran-good)

1-3-7 (10 ran-soft)

1-6-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

1-14-7 (12 ran-good to soft)

2-3-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

11-9-5 (11 ran-good)

Epsom record of the course winner in the opening contest:

1/1—Corazon Espinado (good)

 

2.35: Four-year-olds have won ten of the last eighteen renewals of this contest and with half (4/8) of the declarations representing the vintage, the trend could well be extended. The pick of the quartet from my viewpoint are SHENANIGANS, STAGE NAME and DIAPHORA.  The trio are offered in order of preference whilst I’m not totally writing off the chance of the other vintage representative Soul Silver, despite the overnight quote of 25/1 for David Simcock’s Dragon Pulse filly.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last fifteen favourites have prevailed as have ten of the latest twenty market leaders, during which time the biggest priced gold medallist was returned at just 9/1.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

5-8-10 (10 ran-good)

4-7 (7 ran-good to soft)

1-4-8 (9 ran-good)

6-2-3 (10 ran-good)

1-9-2 (9 ran-good to soft)

6-3-1 (8 ran-good)

7-1-8 (8 ran-good)

5-7-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

5-8-7 (8 ran-good)

6-8-5 (9 ran-good)

6-4-5 (10 ran-good to soft)

5-2-3 (10 ran-good)

4 (3 ran-good)

10-1-5 (8 ran-good)

4-5-1 (8 ran-good)

6-5 (6 ran-soft)

2-5-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

3-4-7 (10 ran-good to soft)

2-1 (6 ran-good to soft)

3-5-6 (8 ran-good)

 

3.10: I rarely mention the ‘sister’ bet of the toteplacepot but on this occasion I have some interesting stats to offer, with this race starting the ‘insurance’ (Quadpot) bet if that is the way you view the wager.  The average totequadpot dividend on Oaks day at Epsom during the last 14 years paid £100.58.  Fifty eight favourites emerged, resulting in 18 winners, 14 were placed and 26 unplaced.  It would help a great deal if this ‘dead eight’ field remained intact as I have left the race to last to see how many options I have relating to my permutation.  Just two runners are available to yours truly and the pin has somehow fallen on the pair CENTURY DREAM and course winner AROD.  The overnight reserve is listed as last year’s winner Sovereign Debt.

Favourite factor: Sixteen of the last twenty winners have scored at 8/1 or less, statistics which include six winning favourites.  That said, only four of the last nine favourites have secured Placepot positions.

Draw factor' (eight and a half furlongs):

2-6 (7 ran-good)

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1-11 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-1 (7 ran-good)

1-5 (7 ran-good)

7-6 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-4 (6 ran-good)

1-8-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

8-2-9 (9 ran-good)

4-8-7 (8 ran-good)

5-8-4 (8 ran-good)

2-3 (5 ran-good)

2-5-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

1-4 (7 ran-good)

3-1-10 (11 ran-good)

9-11-3 (10 ran-good)

6-8-7 (9 ran-good to soft)

6-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

2-3 (5 ran-good)

4-2 (6 ran-good)

3-1-2 (10 ran-good)

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/2—Arod (good)

1/2—Sovereign Debt (good)

 

3.45: I tend to offer draw statistics in big races where possible for readers to determine where potential advantages lie, whether or not the powers that be have interfered with stall positions in recent years!  I leave it to readers to work out if there is any advantage to home in on. I have never been a 'sit on the fence' man like some 'media experts' who forever drone on about my type of work being futile given that it all depends on where the 'pace in the race' is coming from.  I think even 'they' will admit that in the Epsom Dash, pace is everywhere to be seen!  Six-year-olds have secured five of the last thirteen renewals, whilst nine of the last twelve gold medallists have carried a maximum burden of 9-1.  Horses emerging from ‘trap one’ have finished in the frame in five of the last nine renewals, winning on two occasions. JUST THAT LORD (1/20) demands to be included accordingly, whilst CASPIAN PRINCE is on a hat trick in the race has not faired too badly in trap two either!  His record of 4/5 at this unique circuit is probably one of the best of all time, particularly given the type of races that Michael Appleby’s grand servant generally contests.  My other trio against the field come from those drawn further wide, namely TANSOQ (16), BAHAMIAN SUNRISE (13) and HARRY HURRICANE (20) who might even have an advantage if plenty of moisture remains in the ground, albeit that is unlikely with the Epsom surface having been built on chalk.

Favourite factor: Only four of the last twenty favourites have finished in the frame.  Just one (5/1) market leader prevailed during the last eleven years during which time, the average price of the winner was 11/1 which is a perfectly respectable return in such a competitive race.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

1-10-12-5 (19 ran-good)

17-19-20-18 (17 ran-good to soft)

1-7-18-5 (20 ran-good to firm)

14-17-12-13 (19 ran-good)

19-1-5-13 (17 ran-good)

2-16-15-3 (20 ran-good to firm)

9-13-10-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

15-14-16-9 (19 ran-good to firm)

18-12-11-1 (18 ran-good)

8-19-12-17 (19 ran-good)

15-16-17-12 (18 ran-good)

17-8-20-5 (20 ran—good to firm)

10-3-5-15 (20 ran—good)

8-10-2-3 (20 ran—good to firm)

10-11-8 (11 ran—good)

1-6-9 (11 ran—good to soft)

12-6-7-17 (17 ran—good to firm)

3-1-12 (12 ran—good)

11-2-9 (11 ran—good)

10-2-4 (15 ran—good)

Course winners in the ‘Dash’:

1/6—Duke Of Firenze (good)

4/5—Caspian Prince (2 x good & 2 x good to soft)

1/4—Desert Law (good to firm)

1/5—Pettochside (good)

1/1—Bahamian Sunrise (good)

 

4.30: Aidan O’Brien has saddled five winners and twelve placed horses in the Derby during the last nineteen years and with six of those placed horses having been returned at 100/1--25/1--25/1--20/1--16/1 and 14/1, so few (if any) of his runners should be ignored.  York's Dante Stakes is far and away the best prep race these days, though it is worth mentioning that as far as I can recall, only Workforce has won this 'Blue Riband' having been beaten on the Knavesmire in that particular trial.  SAXON WARRIOR appears to be the main hope for the O’Brien team this year, though the favourite has been drifting in recent days, mainly because of the recent rain and the seemingly negative draw (1).  There is also the worry that the Deep Impact colt might not stay the trip after showing tremendous speed to win the Newmarket Guineas in such emphatic style.  I am leaving Ryan Moore’s mount out of my Placepot permutation, though mainly because Saxon Warrior will represent poor value for money, especially as if the favourite is beaten, there must be a chance that the defeat was caused because he failed to see out the twelve furlong which suggests that he might finish out of the money entirely. ROARING LION is another who has been friendless in the market these last few days and with Frankie waxing lyrical about his mount HAZAPOUR, the each way money on the day is likely to be for Dermot Weld’s Shamardal colt.  YOUNG RASCAL might have the most improvement in the field with plenty of untapped potential seemingly in place, especially having won at Chester after meeting plenty of trouble in running.  Of the really big priced runners, SEVENNA STAR could sneak the frame at around 25/1 for John Gosden who is seeking his third winner of this ‘Blue Riband’ event.

Favourite factor: Eighteen of the last nineteen winners of the Derby have scored at 7/1 or less, statistics which include seven favourites of one sort or another.  Eleven of the last fifteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions. Camelot was the first odds on favourite to win the Epsom Derby six years ago since Shergar obliged back in 1981.  Only a week ago, Saxon Warrior looked sure to be an odds on chance on Saturday, though that might not be the case now.

Draw factor:

14-13-7 (18 ran-good)

9-15-8 (16 ran-good to soft)

8-10-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

12-2-11 (16 ran-good)

10-5-11 (12 ran-good)

5-3-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

7-12-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

8-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

4-10-2 (12 ran-good)

3-14-10 (16 ran-good)

14-8-2 (17 ran-good)

10-11-18 (18 ran-good to firm)

5-12-4 (13 ran-good)

6-11-3 (14 ran-good)

4-16-8 (20 ran-good)

9-12-4 (12 ran-good to soft)

10-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

15-7-10 (15 ran-good)

1-5-17 (16 ran-good)

14-1-11 (15 ran-good)

Record of the course winner in the Derby this year:

1/2—Dee Ex Bee (heavy)

 

5.15: Four-year-olds have claimed ten of the last twenty renewals including nine of the last fourteen contests (vintage representatives have finished 1-2-3-4 twice in the last nine years + first, second and fourth four years ago). I am pinning my hopes on RESHOUN (drawn 14/19), STAR OF THE EAST (10) and GOLDEN WOLF (2).  The very best of luck with all your bets on Derby Day, hoping that the weather stays dry (aside from personal bias towards some horses) for those braving the elements on the Downs this year.

Favourite factor: Only one favourite has won the Placepot finale during the past twenty years, whilst just five of the other nineteen market leaders have additionally claimed Placepot positions.

Draw factor (twelve furlongs):

9-12-4 (10 ran-good)

16-14-17-5 (17 ran-good to soft)

13-1-19-17 (19 ran-good to firm)

5-2-8 (15 ran-good)

11-12-10 (12 ran-good)

11-14-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-7-6 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-1-13 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-8-2-9 (16 ran-good)

3-15-9 (15 ran-good)

16-1-9-15 (16 ran-good)

10-12-14 (14 ran-good to firm)

15-4-20-9 (good)

10-12-3 (13 ran-good)

4-6-2 (8 ran-good)

2-5 (7 ran-good to soft)

9-2-8 (11 ran-good to firm)

4-2-1 (12 ran-good)

3-5-7 (11 ran-good)

1-11-13 (15 ran-good)

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Great Hall (good)

1/2—Soldier In Action (good)

1/1—Star Of The East (good)

2/6—Lorelina (2 x good)

1/15—Whinging Willie (heavy)

2/8—Barwick (soft & haeavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 3rd May

REDCAR – MAY 3

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £4.40 (6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 placed)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 73.7% units went through – 7/2 & 15/8*

Race 2: 53.6% of the remaining units when through – 8/13* & 11/2

Race 3: 91.7% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* - 15/8 – 14/1

Race 4: 57.6% of the remaining units went through – 6/4* & 11/4

Race 5: 69.8% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 – 3/1* - 8/1

Race 6: 76.9% of the units secured the dividend – 7/4* - 9/2 – 11/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Redcar: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 2 (Tarrzan) & 7 (Willow Brook)

Leg 2 (2.40): 5 (Pretty Baby) & 4 (Gild Stone)

Leg 3 (3.10): 5 (Robsdelight) & 3 (Ekanse)

Leg 4 (3.40): 4 (Maksab), 3 (Completion) & 2 (Poet’s Prince)

Leg 5 (4.10): 6 (Shovel It On) & 2 (Al Khan)

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Leg 6 (4.40): 10 (Cristal Spirit), 1 (Canadian George) & 5 (Nibras Galaxy)

Suggested stake: 144 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.10: Let’s start with calling a spade a spade shall we by suggesting that there is some turgid sport on offer today.  That said, favourite backers had no cause to complain at the corresponding meeting last year and Mick Channon should be able to get them off to a decent start at the first time of asking today having declared his third placed debut representative TARRZAN who ran at Dundalk.  It’s disappointing to see Mick having to drop his new inmate into a seller which I guess should serve as a warning point for anyone looking to dive in too heavily his afternoon.  WILLOW BROOK receives the reserve nomination call.

Favourite factor:

Three of the four favourites have secured Placepot positions (stats include two winners at 8/11 and 4/6), though detectives are still combing the area looking for the inaugural unplaced 11/8 market leader.

 

2.40: Kevin Ryan won with all three of his runners yesterday and with GOLD STONE having won on her second start at Beverley the last day under similar (good) conditions, Kevin’s Havana Gold filly should go close here, albeit southern raiders PRETTY BABY and LEFT ALONE are obvious dangers.  The first named William Haggas raider ran well enough at York to suggest that her subsequent Chelmsford victory was predictable.  William’s Orpen filly has a chance to secure a success here en route to better things.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Redcar card.

 

3.10: Silvestre De Sousa attempts to ride his first winner for Gay Kelleway at the ninth attempt here having been booked to ride ROBSDELIGHT who has attracted money on the exchanges overnight.  We’re not talking massive investments you understand but on this card (or anywhere today I suspect), it will not take a great ammont of cash to move markets.  EKANSE carries famous colours and it’s worth noting that his mum Esterlina won on debut over a slightly longer trip, albeit she failed to add to that victory via four subsequent assignments.

Favourite factor: Another new race to assess on the Redcar programme.

 

3.40: A 16 ounce ‘hike’ for a decent run by MAKSAB at ‘headquarters’ last time out should ensure that Mick Channon’s other runner at this meeting (aside from Tarrzan in the opening event) will get involved at the business end of proceedings, especially as De Sousa retains the ride from Newmarket with (seemingly) the jockey having been offered an input as to where the three-year-old Makfi colt was going to run next.  COMPLETION and POET’S PRINCE add interest to this Class 4 contest.  Sha La La La Lee’s Wolverhampton success does not warrant a 13/8 price from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Racing at this venue has long since left me cold and this many new races on a card hardly changes my mind relating to this racecourse.

 

4.10: The terms and conditions of this event suggest that SHOVEL IT ON is exactly what favourite backs might to this afternoon relating to the David Evans three-year-old Elusive Pimpernel gelding.  Only AL KHAN represents any kind of threat, a scenario which increases given Kevin Ryan’s hat trick yesterday which means that the trainer has saddled five of his last seven runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 6/4 favourite duly obliged.

Record of the only course winner on the card:

1/7—Gaelic Wizard (good to soft)

 

4.40: Although plenty of respect is offered to CRISTAL SPIRIT (particularly from a Placepot perspective) value for money might be found elsewhere given the declarations of CANADIAN GEORGE (one of several interesting bookings for De Sousa on the card) and NIBRAS GALAXY.  It will be interesting to see if the exchange money for Moltoire grows as the hours tick by.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is yet another new race.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 31st March

KEMPTON – MARCH 31

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £190.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 88.8% units went through – 6/4* & 2/1

Race 2: 76.3% of the remaining units when through – 7/4* & 2/1

Race 3: 39.0% of the remaining units went through – 4/1, 10/1 & 13/2 (7/2)

Race 4: 15.4% of the remaining units went through – 4/1, 8/1 & 14/1 (7/4)

Race 5: 41.6% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 & 3/1 (5/2)

Race 6: 31.1% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1 (Win only – 2/1* unplaced)

*It’s worth noting that after two legs, the ‘pot was only worth £1.47 (after deductions) albeit successful investors were certainly happy enough by the end of play!  If you include the odd speculative selection, you are rarely far away from a decent return.

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Crossed Baton) & 2 (Tigre Du Terre)

Leg 2 (2.35): 1 (Autocratic) & 2 (Dommersen)

Leg 3 (3.10): 2 (Qaysar), 6 (Pivotal Man) & 1 (Plunger)

Leg 4 (3.45): 1 (Time To Blossom), 4 (Warm Oasis) & 5 (Stanley)

Leg 5 (4.20): 8 (Arab Moon), 14 (Kelly’s Dino) & 6 (Contrast)

Leg 6 (4.55): 2 (Solar Flare) & 6 (Sparkalot)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: There is precious little between CROSSED BATON and TUGRE DU TERRE on the exchanges at the time of writing, the two horses vying for favouritism at around the 13/8 mark.  The pair is listed in order of preference, despite the fact that the lads and lasses in the trade press office had the latter named raider as a 4/5 chance overnight.  In the absence of any interest in the other eight contenders (the pick of which should prove to  be Caspar The Cub), this pair will see us safely through to the second leg, likely as not.

Favourite factor: Easter generally causes mass confusion because of the different weeks that that dates fall on year on year.  The Easter meeting was held on April 15 last year which is a good example of what I am trying to say.  Different races have been split between the first two meetings around this time of year down the years whereby I am not offering favourite today because of the ‘confusion’. The Placepot dividend and breakdown of the figures is that of Easter Saturday last year (April 15), some of the races which were included on today’s card – and some not!  This is one of the problems that so many meetings staged at an A/W venue can cause.

 

2.35: Although Sir Michael Stoute has a far better (percentage) record at other all weather tracks (particular those at Chelmsford, Newcastle and Lingfield), his entry AUTOCRATIC might prove too strong for FABRICATE at this stage of the season, whilst course winner DOMMERSEN cannot be entirely overlooked, especially at around the 7/1 mark this morning.

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Record of the two course winners in the second race:

1/2—Dommersen

1/2—Snowy Winter

 

3.10: Although a strong overnight favourite, QAYSAR is relatively easy to back on the exchanges in the dead of night, edging towards 6/5 at the time of writing, having been quoted as a likely 8/11 chance by the trade press.  Fellow course winner PLUNGER and PIVOTAL MAN are standing strong against the market leader, with Emblazoned lacking support as dawn begins to break over Bristol, lighting up yet another wet start to the day.

Record of the two course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Plunger

1/1--Qaysar

 

3.45: After a blank score-sheet in February via seven runners, Simon Crisford boasts a 25% strike rate this month via two winners and TIME TO BLOSSOM could improve the ratio in this grade/company this afternoon.  A winner on his only start at the Sunbury venue, Simon’s dual beaten favourite in his last two races should repay the patience of connections and punters alike. WARM OASIS and STANLEY are nominated as the main threats at the business end of proceedings.

Record of the five course winners in the field:

1/1—Time To Blossom

2/3—Argus

1/3—Stanley

2/14—Berrahri

1/2—Vincent’s Forever

 

4.20: The positive course stats relating to ARAB MOON confirms my interest in William Knight’s four-year-old which was initially ignited by plenty of realistic money piling up on the Elnadim gelding in the positive exchange earlier this morning.  The dangers include KELLY’S DINO and CONTRAST.  With seven course winners in the contest, this race is likely to end many a Placepot interest, even if the first four contests on the card have gone to plan.

Record of the eight course winners in the fifth event:

1/2—Kyllachy Gala

1/12—Fire Fighting

1/5—Emenem

3/4—Arab Moon

1/3—Intrepidly

3/13—Jacob Cats

1/4—Wimpole Hall

 

4.55: Simon Dow has been going great guns of late and with SPARKALOT offering outstanding course statistics here, Simon’s celebrations could be extended over the course of the weekend.  That said, the 8/1 quotes in a place or two about SOLAR FLAIR make for interesting reading.  Beaten less than two lengths in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood the last day, William Knight’s six-year-old would surely go close if anywhere near cherry ripe after a long winter break.

Record of the three course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Solar Flare

1/3—Human Nature

4/6—Sparkalot

 

Record of the course winner in the seventh Kempton (non Placepot) at 5.30:

2/4—Lord Cooper

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 16th March 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

3.45 Hexham : Itstimeforapint @ 5/1 BOG  4th at 5/1 Held up last, mistake 2nd, left modest 4th 19th, ridden and weakened after 2 out.

And now we move on to Friday's...

11.30 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Nendrum @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 2m0.5f handicap hurdle (4yo+) on good ground worth £4,094 to the winner...

Why?

An in-form 9yr old gelding who has finished 3121 in his last four starts, all at today's Class 4 under today's jockey Jamie Hamilton with three of those races (311) taking place here at Musselburgh. He was last seen 30 days ago winning here by three lengths and putting another winner on the board for trainer Sandy Thomson, who over the last two years...

...has 35 winners from 195 NH (17.95% SR) runners yielding 224.1pts profit at an ROI of 114.9% and these figures include...

  • males at 35/174 (20.1%) for 245.1pts (+140.9%)
  • at Class 4 : 18/97 (18.6%) for 203.6pts (+209.9%)
  • over hurdles : 16/97 (16.5%) for 202.3pts (+208.5%)
  • at odds of 6/5 to 5/1 : 23/73 (31.5%) for 17.5pts (+23.9%)
  • over trips of 2m1f and shorter : 13/48 (27.1%) for 211.9pts (+441.5%)
  • here at Musselburgh : 10/36 (27.8%) for 28.7pts (+79.8%)
  • and 9yr olds are 5/16 (31.25%) for 8.56pts (+53.5%)

The above profit & respective ROI figures are admittedly skewed by a 66/1 non-handicap winner, but that doesn't detract from some excellent strike rates and if you just took male Class 4 handicap hurdlers at odds of 6/5 to 9/1, like we have today, you'd have 6 winners from 11 (54.6% SR) for 19pts (+172.5% ROI) profit, from which...

  • here at Musselburgh : 2/4 for 5.02pts
  • 2m1f and shorter : 2/2 for 5.02pts
  • 9 yr olds : 2/2 for 5.02pts

AND... 9 yr olds here at Musselburgh over 2m1f and shorter = 2/2 for 5.02pts, achieved by Nendrum on his two visits here with Jamie Hamilton in the saddle this year!

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Nendrum @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, SkyBet, SportPesa & 10Bet at 5.30pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 11.30 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 14th February

MUSSELBURGH – FEBRUARY 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: No meeting

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Misfits), 2 (So Satisfied) & 5 (Dun Far Good)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Silver Concorde) & 2 (The Road Home)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Divine Spear), 3 (Derintother Yank)

Leg 4 (3.30): 3 (Titus Bolt), 8 (Our Lucas) & 6 (Devils Water)

Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Canny Style) & 4 (Nendrum)

Leg 6 (4.30): 6 (Professor Plum), 5 (Rising Marienbard) & 1 (Nefyn Bay)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: MISFITS is proving almost as strong as SO SATISFIED in the markets overnight whilst DUN FAW GOOD is the each way alternative call. Course and distance winner MISFITS is the first of nine runners on the card for Lucinda Russell who looks booked for a good day in Edinburgh.

Favourite factor: This is a new fixture on the calendar.

Course winners in the opening event:

1/4—So Satisfied (soft)

1/4—Misfits (soft)

 

2.30: This should be something of an exercise gallop for SILVER CONCORDE over lone rival THE ROAD HOME though Lucinda Russell’s latter named raider in unbeaten at the track (albeit via a 1/1 ratio) though that said, Silver Concorde’s 2/3 record is none too shabby.  I’ll be ‘in the bar’ (as is usually the case in ‘win only’ events) hoping that both runners come home safely, with the best horse on the day prevailing.

Course winners in the second race:

2/3—Silver Concorde (2 x good)

1/1—The Road Home (good to soft)

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3.00: DIVINE SPEAR looks another ‘good thing’ on the card, with Nicky Henderson having offered just one long distance traveller on Wednesday.  Musselburgh is a decent steeplechase track from my viewpoint whilst all races suit front runners in general terms.  Few horse come from a long way back in the pack at this venue.  How much ground DERINTOTHER YANK will have to make up turning for home in an unknown factor, though Donald McCain’s raider is the only threat to the market leader according to the gospel of yours truly.

 

3.30: DEVILS WATER has failed to complete the course on his last three starts, though Jane Walton’s raider could offer a little each way value at around the 16/1 mark this morning if you fancy a small speculative win and place wager.  TITUS BOLT is another each way horse to consider, albeit more logical winners in the field include OUR LUCAS and (arguably) Toarmandowithlove.

 

4.00: Kevin Ryan cannot do a lot wrong at present, given his recent 5/16 ratio which includes a 66/1 winner for good measure!  CANNY STYLE will start at the other end of the starting price spectrum this afternoon, with Brian Hughes expected to boot home another winner north of the border.  NENDRUM is emerging as a semi-serious horse on the exchanges this morning, with plenty of (realistic) money in the positive queue for Sandy Thomson’s raider which is interesting, given Sandy’s 10/1 winner at the track last week.

Course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/1—Canny Style (good)

1/2—Nendrum (good to soft)

 

4.30: A tough Placepot finale in all honesty whereby I am searching for half decent potential ‘outsiders’ offering value for money on the Placepot front. PROFESSOR PLUM and RISING MARIENBARD appeal as much as anything else, whilst I will add NEFYN BAY into the Placepot equation in a race which fails to set the pulse racing.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Nefyn Bay (soft)

1/5—Professor Plum (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Musselburgh card on Wednesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

9 runners—Lucinda Russell (7/40 +15) – 34/248 – loss of 13 points

4—Victor Thompson (0/4) – 1/17 – level profit/loss

3—James Ewart (0/7) – 13/81 +8

3—Donald McCain (4/20 +1) – 28/134 +27

2—Stuart Coltherd (0/2) – 2/27 – loss of 12

2—Susan Corbett (0/15) – 3/55 – loss of 37

2—Keith Dalgleish (5/14 +1) – 11/44 – loss of 1

2—Micky Hammond (0/5) – 1/30 loss of 28

2—Iain Jardine (0/17) – 4/47 – loss of 7

2—Rebecca Menzies (1/9 – loss of 3) – 5/35 +21

2—Sandy Thompson (6/18 +22) – 16/65 +62

2—Alistair Whillans (2/10 +2) – 4/45 – loss of 12

+ 16 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

51 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Towcester: £193.50 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Lingfield: £36.90 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £9.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 1 unplaaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 4th January

MUSSELBURGH – FEBRUARY 4

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £60.60 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh: 

Leg 1 (12.50): 3 (Cousin Oscar), 5 (Celtic Flames) & 6 (The Last But One)

Leg 2 (1.25): 1 (We Have A Dream) & 6 (Uptown Funk)

Leg 3 (2.00): 3 (Claimantakinforgan) & 5 (Simply The Betts)

Leg 4 (2.35): 1 (Mr Whipped), 4 (Red River) & 3 (Ravenhill Road)

Leg 5 (3.10): 11 (Jump For Dough), 5 (Cresswell Legend) & 3 (Connetable)

Leg 6 (3.45): 7 (Golden Investment) & 6 (Carlton Ryan)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.50:  CELTIC FLAMES looks a tad too big at 11/1 in several places at the time of writing and I could fancy his Placepot chance, though the trade press 5/1 quote about COUSIN OSCAR always looked fanciful, especially when taking Donald McCain’s recent ratio into account.  Donald has saddled 13 of his last 36 runners to winning effect, stats which have produced 29 points of level stake profit.  Equally however, the 2/1 price chalked against COUSIN OSCAR looks plenty short enough, whereby I will also be adding THE LAST BUT ONE into the mix on his chasing debut.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Musselburgh today.

 

1.25: WE HAVE A DREAM is very much the horse to beat after landing his hat trick the last day, the three relevant victories have been gained by an aggregate of 22 lengths.  Nicky secured a short priced (9/2) treble at Sandown yesterday and the first of his three runners on the card should win with the minimum of fuss.  I’ll take a punt on course and distance winner UPTOWN FUNK to fill the forecast position, with the Keith Dalgleish team saddling winners for fun at present (recent stats of 6/23 – LSP of 39 points).
Favourite factor: Nicky Henderson will be hoping that We Have A Dream can become the fifth winning favourite in the last six years in this event.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Uptown Funk (good to soft)

 

2.00: CLAIMANTAKINFORGAN looks a little more vulnerable than Nicky’s market leader in the previous race from my viewpoint though that said, the next two horses in the betting are not attracting any money at the time of writing.  That leaves SIMPLY THE BETTS as the alternative option, though the 22/1 quote about Ballyvic Boru might not last too long this morning I’ll wager.
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites thus far have finished in the frame without winning their respective contests.

Record of the course winners in the third contest:

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2/3—Beyond The Clouds (2 x good)

1/1—Ballyvic Boru

 

2.35: This is a quality Class 2 (Albert Bartlett) trail and no mistake, especially with MR WHIPPED having been declared.  There are some interesting (contrasting) market movements regarding Nicky Henderson’s raider however, because although overnight support with a few firms has seen the favourite shorten to 8/13 in places, 10/11 is freely available on the exchanges at the time of writing.  RED RIVER and PRESENT MAN are other horses to consider whilst northern hopes lie with RAVENHILL ROAD.  One trend looks sure to go ‘belly up’ this afternoon, with six-year-olds coming into the race on a five timer, with just the two ‘rags’ representing the vintage on this occasion.
Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites have snared Placepot positions via five renewals.  There are two winning favourites to report, albeit they were accompanied by two gold medallists which were returned at 22/1 & 10/1 on two occasions.

 

3.10: Dual course winner JUMP FOR DOUGH (seemingly) looks to be taking on the southern raiders by himself on behalf of ‘northern’ stables, with Lucinda Russell’s Milan gelding in search of a hat trick this afternoon.  CRESSWELL LEGEND has already landed his treble and with Kim Bailey having saddled four winners of late, David Bass has a chance if improving his 18% strike rate for the stable this season in today’s grade/company.   Given the 10/1 and 9/2 (respective) prices for CONNETABLE and STAMP YOUR FEET, I’ll opt for the first named (Paul Nicholls) raider to claim the other Placepot position.

Favourite factor: Both (11/4 & 11/8) market leaders had obliged, before last year’s 7/2 favourite missed out on a Placepot position when finishing fourth behind horses which filled the frame at odds of 15/2, 7/1 & 40/1.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

1/1--Cresswell Legend (good to soft)

1/6--Arthurs Secret (good)

2/3--Jump For Dough (good to soft & soft)

 

3.45: GOLDEN INVESTMENT and CARLTON RYAN have not suddenly become big movers in the market this morning but there is plenty of realistic positive money in the exchange queues in the dead of night to suggest that at least one of these two horses should land the Placepot dividend between them, if we were live going into the last leg.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race on the Musselburgh programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Musselburgh card on Sunday:

7 runners—Brian Ellison

6—Lucinda Russell

5—Paul Nicholls

4—Tom George

3—Kim Bailey

3—Micky Henderson

3—Donald McCain

2—Jennie Candlish

2—Keith Dalgleish

2—Mick Easterby

2—Alan Fleming

+ 16 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

55 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Taunton: 167.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 3rd February

SANDOWN – FEBRUARY 3

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £146.80 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 5 (Countister) & 2 (Ainchea)

Leg 2 (1.15): 2 (Gino Trail) & 4 (Cepage)

Leg 3 (1.50): 1 (Buveur D’Air)

Leg 4 (2.25): 1 (Cyrname), 5 (Terrefort), 2 (Kalondra) & 4 (West Approach)

Leg 5 (3.00): 9 (Melrose Boy), 15 (Dashing Perk), 4 (Topofthegame) & 14 (King Of Fashion)

Leg 6 (3.35): 11 (Shanroe Santos). 8 (Holly Bush Henry), 1 (Yala Enki) & 9 (Wicked Willy)

Suggested stake: 256 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.40:  Nicky Henderson will want to seek compensation for the defeat of Rather Be in this event twelve months ago.  Nicky has declared his Doncaster winner COUNTISTER who won on soft ground in France on two occasions before crossing the English Channel.  Colin Tizzard’s Flemensfirth gelding AINCHEA looks the obvious danger in a race which could provide a few clues for better races in the spring.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural (Nicky Henderson trained) 4/5 market leader was beaten by the 7/4 second favourite (Alan King) when claiming a Placepot position.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Ainchea (good to soft)

 

1.15: Seven-year-olds have won four of the last nine contests, whilst eight of the eleven winners during the study period have carried a maximum burden of 11-5.  As was the case twelve months ago, seven-year-olds are only conspicuous by their absence again this time around.  Kerry Lee is well represented in a race which she won last year, with GINO TRAIL preferred to TOM GAMBLE on this occasion.  GINO TRAIL failed to find another gear to cope with Speredek over course and distance the last day, though there was no disgrace in finishing second to that useful performer under heavy conditions.  CEPAGE could split Kerry’s pair here, with the Venetia William’s raider lurking in the ‘superior’ sector of the weight according to the trends.
Favourite factor: Three favourites have won via eleven renewals during which time, six market leaders having finished in the frame.

 

1.50: Nicky Henderson (saddles last year’s winner BUVEUR D’AIR) has won four of the last six renewals of this event when represented and the champion hurdler should have no problem winning his thirteenth race on his sixteenth assignment.  Bookmakers will be betting on the distance – my guess for the record: 12 lengths.  John Constable will fill the runner up berth at a respectable distance accordingly.
Favourite factor: Six of the last nine favourites have won, whilst eight market leaders during the last 13 years have secured totplacepot positions.

Record of course winner in the field in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Buveur D’Air

 

2.25: Seven-year-old’s (not represented last year) have won five of the last ten renewals of the ‘Scilly Isles’ novice event, as have seven of the last 14 gold medallists.  KALONDRA is much preferred to No Comment of the pair of seven-year-olds though Noel Fehily’s mount might have to give way close home to the likes of CYRNAME and TERREFORT whose respective trainers Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson go head to head again in a feature contest.  WEST APPROACH is not entirely dismissed at the time of writing, fearful that a non runner might raise its ugly head before flag fall, creating a ‘win only’ contest which would put the cat among the pigeons and no mistake.
Favourite factor: The last 19 winners all scored at odds of 10/1 or less, with ten winning favourites having been recorded in the process. 17 of the 19 winners scored at a maximum price of 9/2, whilst 12 market leaders have secured Placepot positions.  Eight of the last eleven market leaders have obliged.

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3.00: Nine of the last ten winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-12, whilst Paul Nicholls (TOPOFTHEGAME) has saddled three of the last eight winners.  Paul’s six-year-old has to be included in the Placepot equation from my viewpoint, albeit he might represent poor value for money from a win perspective given that he is taking on the weight trends. That said, MELROSE BOY is also carrying plenty of pounds and ounces, though Harry Fry has a habit of annoying the handicapper with his improving young horses.  Each way alternative options from lower down the handicap include DASHING PERK and KING OF FASHION.
Favourite factor: Four of the eleven market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two (9/4) winners.

Record of course winners in the field in the fifth event:

1/1—Golan Fortune (good to soft)

1/1—Buywise (heavy)

 

3.30: 13 of the last 16 winners have carried a maximum weight of 11-4, whilst Lucy Wadham (has won with the last two runners she has saddled in the contest) has declared SHANROE SHANROE.  Lucy’s course and distance winner is included in my Placepot mix alongside YALA ENKI, HOLLY BUSH HENRY and WICKED WILLY.  The latter named raider is trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies whose last twenty horses have been beaten which is something of a worry, whilst YALA ENKI is a horse I have (seemingly) failed to call right every time the Venetia Williams trained raider has run.  That said, Venetia has won two of the last four renewals of this event whereby we live in hope.
Favourite factor: Four of the last ten market leaders have won (first favourites to oblige since 1998), whilst eight of the market leaders during the study period have finished in the frame.

Record of course winners in the field in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Bishops Road (heavy)

2/10—Loose Chips (good)

1/1—Holly Bush Henry (good to soft)

1/2—Shanroe Santos (good to soft)

2/6—Vino Griego (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season (in brackets) and for the last five years + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

5 winners—Nicky Henderson(3/10 – loss of 2 points) – 34/129 +13

5—Kerry Lee (0/2) – 3/14 +1

5—Paul Nicholls (2/18 – loss of 10) – 26/174 loss of 22

4—Colin Tizzard (1/9 – loss of 5) – 3.46 – loss of 36

4—Evan Williams (1/5 +8) – 1/34 – loss of 21)

3—Phil Middleton (0/3) – 4/9 +17

3—Seamus Mullins (0/1) – 2/22 – slight loss

3—Gary Moore (1/13 – loss of 7) – 22/104 +79

2—David Dennis (First runners at Sandown this season) – 0/9

2—Charlie Longsdon (1/9 +17) – 5/54 +8

2—Jonjo O’Neill (0/6) – 2/51 – loss of 43

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/8 +10) – 7/50 - +21

2—Venetia Williams (1/3 – slight profit) – 9/93 – loss of 51

+ 15 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

57 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Musselburgh: £459.00 (6 favourites- 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Wetherby: £68.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Lingfield: £296.40 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: Essentially this is a new meeting

Stat of the Day, 3rd February 2018

Friday's Result :

4.15 Lingfield : Easy Tiger @ 4/1 BOG WON at 9/2 Made all, set steady pace until quickened over 2f out, held on well to win by 0.75 lengths...

We continue with Saturday's...

3.15 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Delusionofgrandeur @ 5/1 BOG

A Class 2, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 4m1f on Good To Soft ground worth £25,024 to the winner...

Why?

An 8 yr old gelding with four wins and three places from his last nine efforts over fences and he has won three of five starts on good to soft ground, including two from three over fences.

His yard is in good form too with Sue Smith's runners winning four of eleven over the past seven days, with five of the seven "losers" managing to make the frame.

Since 2012, Sue's handicap chasers racing at trips of 2m5f and beyond on ground with the word soft in the going description are 42 from 297 (14.1% SR) generating level stakes profits of 121.8pts at an ROI of some 41%.

And, of those 297 runners, those that were Sue's only runner at a given track that day went on to win 7 of 31 (22.6% SR) for 36.6pts (+117.9% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Delusionofgrandeur @ 5/1 BOG which was available from around a half dozen firms at 6.20pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Friday 19th January

LINGFIELD – JANUARY 19

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £19.20 (6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield: 

Leg 1 (12.55): 1 (Summer Thunder) & 4 (Red Snapper)

Leg 2 (1.25): 4 (Inuk), 2 (Avon Green) & 5 (Hornby)

Leg 3 (2.00): 1 (Jumping Jack), 6 (Bayston Hill) & 5 (Music Major)

Leg 4 (2.30): 7 (Human Nature), 8 (Show Stealer) & 1 (Kachy)

Leg 5 (3.05): 3 (Conkering Hero) & 2 (Strictly Art)

Leg 6 (3.40): 1 (Native Appeal) & 6 (Shakour)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.55: SUMMER THUNDER (1/2) and RED SNAPPER (9/2) are solid prices right across the board in the dead of night in a race which the pair look set to dominate at the business end of proceedings.  Whether the favourite would have had more petrol in the tank when returned as the beaten 13/8 market leader the last day at Kempton had he not dwelt at the start remains unknown though either way, there was precious little left to offer close home.  This race should tell us more about his resolve.  I wouldn’t care to take a price about either horse personally though from a Placepot perspective, they look home and hosed in such a weak contest.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Lingfield.

 

1.25: The previous six winners had all carried a minimum burden of 9-3 before last year’s 33/1 winner upset the heavily laden apple-cart.  The first race on the card will act as a marker for supporters of course winner INUK who finished just over a length adrift of Summer Thunder last time out.  Either way, 7/4 looks skinny enough about the Richard Hughes raider, albeit his Placepot claims are there for all to see.  Joseph Tuite saddled a winner yesterday whereby there will be some confidence behind AVON GREEN I’ll wager, whilst HORNBY completes my trio against the remaining four contenders.

Favourite factor: Just one (6/4) favourite has obliged via seven renewals, two of which were won by horses returned at 33/1 and 10/1. Three of the seven market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, stats which include one beaten 1/2 favourite from a win perspective.

Course winner in the second event:

1/3--Inuk

 

2.00: There is plenty of money in the realistic positive exchange queue for both BAYSTON HILL and JUMPING JACK at the time of writing, the first named runner being closely linked with MUSIC MAJOR via recent form lines.  This trio should get us into the second half of the Placepot equation between them, albeit Miss Minuty should not be far away at the jamstick though ‘value for money’ is the worry regarding Jeremy Scott’s projected favourite.  If Colourful Career prevails, it will be yet another case of taking the wrong stance about an Ed Dunlop runner, a trainer I rarely (if ever) call the right way!

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Lingfield programme.

Course winners in the third race:

3/5—Miss Minuty

1/6—Cayuga

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3/9—Music Major

1/4—Bayston Hill

 

2.30: HUMAN NATURE makes some appeal at the (bet to nothing) each way price of 5/1 this morning, with Milly Naseb still offering fair value from the saddle via her seven pound claim.  Trainer Stuart Williams is in decent enough form whilst he has saddled more A/W winners at Lingfield than at any other venue, one of two turf-less venues (alongside Chelmsford) where he boasts a level stake profit down the years.  SHOW STEALER and KACHY are feared most.

Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have secured gold (7/2) and Silver (5/2) medals whist securing Placepot positions.

Course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/2—Certificate

1/8—Zac Brown

1/8—Kasbah

1/1—Show Stealer

 

3.05: It would come as no surprise if course winner STRICTLY ART outruns his each way price in this grade/company, albeit CONKERING HERO might still be ahead of the handicapper for a week or two.  The latter named raider is Joseph Tuite’s second runner on the card with realistic claims, with this pair preferred to Ban Shoof at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Another new race on the Lingfield card.

Course winners in the fifth event:

1/2—Ban Shoof

1/2—Strictly Art

1/1—Conkering Hero

1/1—Oregon Gift

1/5—Barthomomew J

1/3—Sanches

 

3.40: Charlie Appleby saddled eight runners ‘out east’ at Meydan yesterday resulting in two winners.  Charlie’s raider NATIVE APPEAL should prove difficult to beat, let alone claiming a Placepot position, especially with (seemingly) only SHAKOUR to beat.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is yet another new event.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Lingfield card on Friday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

2 runners—Michael Attwater (0/6) – 35/466 – loss of 61 points

2—David Evans (2/4 +7) – 82/603 – loss of 177

2—Joseph Tuite (0/2) – 10/102 – loss of 5

2—Charlie Wallis (0/2) – 2/47 – loss of 28

+ 37 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

45 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £302.80 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Musselburgh: £217.40 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Newcastle: This is a new meeting

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 3rd January

MUSSELBURGH – JANUARY 3 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £214.60 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh: 

Leg 1 (1.00): 6 (Kelpies Myth), 8 (Silver Bullion) & 4 (Chookie Royale)

Leg 2 (1.30): 3 (Mullaghmurphy Blue), 4 (Middlebrow) & 1 (Pot Commited)

Leg 3 (2.00): 8 (Nendrum), 2 (Sleep In First) & 4 (Lady Clitico)

Leg 4 (2.30): 1 (Full Jack) & 2 (Jump For Dough)

Leg 5 (3.00): 1 (Mixboy) & 4 (Archive)

Leg 6 (3.30): 9 (Paper Promise) & 1 (Detonate)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.00:  This race should be offered with a government health warning (see favourite stats below) even though one of the two market leaders scored via spilt divisions twelve months ago.  Overnight money has arrived for the lone course winner KELPIES MYTH and SILVER BULLION and in the face of previous results in the contest (and in a mediocre renewal) it might prove churlish in the extreme to ignore the potential ‘edges’.  Keith Dalgleish suffered a reversal (faller) yesterday on the opposite Scottish coastline though from a Placepot perspective, CHOOKIE ROYALE should give investors a decent run for their collective months on behalf of the stable.
Favourite factor: The first four winners of this event have scored at 33/1, 25/1, 13/2 & 4/1 before last year’s two divisions, with the relevant market leaders snaring old And silver medals, the winner scoring at 4/6.  Three of the six favourites have claimed Placepot positions, though one of the (second placed) casualties from a win perspective was beaten at odds of 2/7.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/2—Kelpies Myth (good)

 

1.30: Just as a general viewpoint regarding NH racing at Musselburgh (and on the flat come to mind), why do jockeys sit off the pace so much in Edinburgh, given that the layout of the track demands that horses race close to the pace if they have any chance of winning from meeting to meeting?  Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that although the two dual course winners might have preferred slightly better conditions, it would be surprising to say the least if both horses failed to figure at the business end of proceedings in such a weak looking event.  Chasing might enable POT COMMITED to rekindle some form, whilst the chance for MULLAGHMURPHY BLUE is there for all to see in this grade/company.  MIDDLEBROW is the other potential winner in the field from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Musselburgh card.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

2/2—Pot Commited (2 x good)

2/2—Millaghmurphy Blue (2 x good)

 

2.00: Five-year-olds have won two of the four renewals in which vintage representatives were involved though in would take a great deal of blind faith to include this year’s lone vintage representative Great Coloci into even the Placepot mix. Far more logical winners include NENDRUM and SLEEP IN FIRST, even though their collective form does not amount to very much.  Rebecca Menzies does well with the few runners she saddles here and there will be worse outsiders on the Musselburgh card than LADY CLITICO I’ll wager.
Favourite factor: Three of the five market leaders have finished in the frame to date, statistics which include last year’s one successful (85/40) favourite from a win perspective.

Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

1/3—Mitcd (good)

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2.30: FULL JACK and JUMP FOR DOUGH appeal from value for money perspectives in another race on the card that will not take a great deal of winning.  RANDY PIKE did us a good turn the other day, though the even money quote in the trade press looks far too tight about a horse which got off the mark in a weak Market Rasen event at the sixth time of asking. COURT BALOO is offered the reserve nomination accordingly.
Favourite factor: Two of the six favourites (via five renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (even money) winner.  That said, last year’s 11/8 market leader was the only horse which failed to complete the course.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/6—Full Jack (good to soft)

1/2—Lady London (good)

1/1—Court Baloo (good)

3.00: Although this is a disappointing renewal of the Kilmany Cup event, last year’s winner MIXBOY looks to have obvious claims, albeit the ground will be softer than was encountered twelve months ago.  I thought that the Dalgleish favourite Niceandeasy was ‘vulnerable’ on yesterday’s Ayr card and so it proved, though MIXBOY comes here with a much better chance from my viewpoint.  At 2/1 with plenty of firms at the time of writing, MIXBOY is offered at a realistic price to defend his crown successfully.  ARCHIVE should present the strongest challenge when the whips are up according to the gospel of yours truly.
Favourite factor: Four of the seven favourites have secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events at odds of 7/2 - 9/4 – 6/4 - 10/11.

Record of the course winners in the feature event:

1/1—Mixboy (good)

1/3—Trust Thomas (good)

 

3.30:  The exchanges appear to indicate that just two horses can be taken seriously in the finale, namely PAPER PROMISE and DETONATE, the pair being listed in marginal order of preference, not that I would back either of them with your money from a win perspective, especially with the disappointing market leader returns listed below.  Lucinda Russell saddled the 16/1 winner two years ago and I guess that BATON BLUE should not be dismissed too readily in this grade/company.
Favourite factor: Although four of the five favourites have finished in the frame, just one (4/5) market leader has prevailed thus far.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Musselburgh card on Wednesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + level stake profits/losses accrued on both counts:

5 runners—Lucinda Russell (2/19 +5) – 48/497 – loss of 156 points

4—Tim Vaughan (2/6 +8) – 9/51 – loss of 6

3—James Ewart (0/4) – 20/160 – loss of 45

2—George Bewley (0/1) – 2/31 – loss of 20

2—Susan Corbett (0/9 – 4/56 – loss of 31

2—Keith Dalgleish (3/8 +3) – 9/39 – marginal loss

2—Chris Grant (0/4) – 15/194 – loss of 93 points

2—Micky Hammond (0/3) – 47/360 – loss of 5

2—Iain Jardine (0/10) – 4/47 – loss of 6

2—Christopher Kellett (0/1) – 0/2

2—Donald McCain (0/11) – 44/221 – marginal loss

2—Rebecca Menzies (1/5 slight profit) – 5/31 +24

2—Pauline Robson (0/2) – 7/46 – loss of 13

2—Katie Scott (First runners this season at the track) – 1/8 – loss of 1

2—Sandy Thomson (4/13 +12) – 16/77 +46

2—Alistair Whillans (2/7 +5) – 11/118 – loss of 31

+ 15 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

53 declared runners

 

 

Stat of the Day, 3rd January 2018

Tuesday's Result :

6.10 Newcastle : Shamshon @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 3/1 In touch, ridden over 1f out, no extra inside final furlong, beaten by 2.5 lengths.

Next up is Wednesday's...

3.00 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mixboy @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 3, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m on Good to Soft ground worth £10.007 to the winner...

Why?

Keith Dalgleish is better known for his prowess with Flat/AW runners, but also does quite well with a smaller string of NH horses and to date, his record with chasers stands at 11 wins from 28 (39.3% SR) for 21pts (+75% ROI) profit, all from male horses! It's a small sample size, but does show that he knows what he's doing and in respect of today's contest, those 28 chasers are...

  • 10/20 (50%) for 27.25pts (+136.3%) at odds of 6/4 to 8/1
  • 8/13 (61.5%) for 20.86pts (+160.5%) over trips of 2m to 2m4f
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 3.71pts (+53.1%) at Class 3
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 2.35pts (+58.8%) here at Musselburgh

He now runs this dual-purpose 8 yr old gelding, who won 3 of 5 starts over fences in 2016/17, including a 21 lengths success in this race last year before reverting back to the Flat/AW, where he won 2 of 4 ahead of today's return to chasing. So, he effectively comes here on a run of 5 from 9, but it's his 3/5 chasing record that's more relevant here, as it contains...

  • 3/3 when priced shorter than 4-1 & 3/3 in fields of 4-8 runners
  • 2/2 over trips of 2m/2m0.5f & 1/1 here at Musselburgh
  • 1/1 over C&D + 1/1 at Class 3 (Both in this race in 2017)
  • 1/1 in January and 1/1 going right handed (also both here in 2017)

Plus, since 2010, chasers who ran on either the Flat or A/W last time out and either won or lost by less than 15 lengths then won 110 of 720 (15.3% SR) returns to chasing, generating 431.4pts (+59.9% ROI) profit, including...

  • males at 98/653 (15%) for 418.9pts (+64.1%)
  • handicappers at 58/391 (14.8%) for 233.6pts (+59.7%)
  • 31-45 days since last run : 19/80 (23.75%) for 250.2pts (+312.8%)
  • and here at Musselburgh : 3/12 (25%) for 2.72pts (+22.7%)

...giving us...... a 1pt win bet on Mixboy @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy Power at 5.50pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!