Posts

Stat of the Day, 13th May 2019

Saturday's pick was...

5.55 Haydock : Northern Beau @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Pressed leader to 5 out, outpaced in 4th next, went modest 3rd next, never able to get back on terms)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Frame Rate @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m7f on Good ground worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding finished 2nd LTO, three parts of a length behind the re-opposing Elite Icon here over 1m6f ten days ago, but I'm backing him to reverse placings as this is a furlong longer and our boy was staying on the better of the two last time and he's a pound better off today.

His trainer Iain Jardine has had 7 winners from 28 (25% SR), generating 65.2pts (+233% ROI) profit for his followers over the last fortnight, from which...

  • today's jockey Jamie Gormley is 4/17 (23.5%) for 58.7pts (+345.3%)
  • Class 6 runners are 3/7 (42.9%) for 7.65pts (+109.2%)
  • and Jamie is 2/4 (50%) for 6.42pts (+160.4%) on Iain's Class 6 entrants.

Moreover, since 2015, Iain's Flat handicappers racing at trips beyond a mile and a half are 37 from 207 (17.9% SR) for 85.9pts (+41.5% ROI) if backed blindly and these are excellent numbers, but if you didn't want to follow them blindly, here is "just" a dozen of the various possible profitable angles you could take from that approach, all of which are in play today, of course...

  • males are 27/153 (17.7%) for 98.2pts (+64.2%)
  • those who raced in the previous 25 days are 32/149 (21.5%) for 101.8pts (+68.3%)
  • over trips of 1m6f to 2m : 27/117 (23.1%) for 99.6pts (+85.1%)
  • in Scotland : 21/106 (19.8%) for 45pts (+42.4%)
  • here at Musselburgh : 14/73 (19.2%) for 14.9pts (+20.4%)
  • at Class 6  :13/67 (19.4%) for 8.1pts (+12.1%)
  • ridden by Jamie Gormley : 11/60 (18.3%) for 1.7pts (+2.9%)
  • up in trip by 1-3 furlongs : 16/51 (31.4%) for 79.1pts (+155.2%)
  • 4 yr olds are 11/43 (25.6%) for 77pts (+179%)
  • at odds of 3/1 or shorter : 17/38 (44.7%) for 21.8pts (+57.3%)
  • LTO runners-up are 7/25 928%) for 40.9pts (+163.7%)
  • and those up 1 furlong are 4/12 933.3%) for 10.5pts (+87.6%)

...from which...males racing over 1m6f to 2m in NW England / Yorkshire / Scotland within 25 days of their last run are 17 from 58 (29.3% SR) for 110.9pts (+191.3% ROI), a much easier to operate/manage micro-system that also includes...

  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 38.8pts (+161.8%) in Scotland
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 12.1pts (+63.8%) for Jamie Gormley
  • 6/17  (35.3%) for 12.4pts (+73%) here at Musselburgh
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 3.38pts (+112.7%) for Jamie here at Musselburgh...

...steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on Frame Rate @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th May 2019

Saturday's pick was...

5.55 Haydock : Northern Beau @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Pressed leader to 5 out, outpaced in 4th next, went modest 3rd next, never able to get back on terms)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Frame Rate @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m7f on Good ground worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding finished 2nd LTO, three parts of a length behind the re-opposing Elite Icon here over 1m6f ten days ago, but I'm backing him to reverse placings as this is a furlong longer and our boy was staying on the better of the two last time and he's a pound better off today.

His trainer Iain Jardine has had 7 winners from 28 (25% SR), generating 65.2pts (+233% ROI) profit for his followers over the last fortnight, from which...

  • today's jockey Jamie Gormley is 4/17 (23.5%) for 58.7pts (+345.3%)
  • Class 6 runners are 3/7 (42.9%) for 7.65pts (+109.2%)
  • and Jamie is 2/4 (50%) for 6.42pts (+160.4%) on Iain's Class 6 entrants.

Moreover, since 2015, Iain's Flat handicappers racing at trips beyond a mile and a half are 37 from 207 (17.9% SR) for 85.9pts (+41.5% ROI) if backed blindly and these are excellent numbers, but if you didn't want to follow them blindly, here is "just" a dozen of the various possible profitable angles you could take from that approach, all of which are in play today, of course...

  • males are 27/153 (17.7%) for 98.2pts (+64.2%)
  • those who raced in the previous 25 days are 32/149 (21.5%) for 101.8pts (+68.3%)
  • over trips of 1m6f to 2m : 27/117 (23.1%) for 99.6pts (+85.1%)
  • in Scotland : 21/106 (19.8%) for 45pts (+42.4%)
  • here at Musselburgh : 14/73 (19.2%) for 14.9pts (+20.4%)
  • at Class 6  :13/67 (19.4%) for 8.1pts (+12.1%)
  • ridden by Jamie Gormley : 11/60 (18.3%) for 1.7pts (+2.9%)
  • up in trip by 1-3 furlongs : 16/51 (31.4%) for 79.1pts (+155.2%)
  • 4 yr olds are 11/43 (25.6%) for 77pts (+179%)
  • at odds of 3/1 or shorter : 17/38 (44.7%) for 21.8pts (+57.3%)
  • LTO runners-up are 7/25 928%) for 40.9pts (+163.7%)
  • and those up 1 furlong are 4/12 933.3%) for 10.5pts (+87.6%)

...from which...males racing over 1m6f to 2m in NW England / Yorkshire / Scotland within 25 days of their last run are 17 from 58 (29.3% SR) for 110.9pts (+191.3% ROI), a much easier to operate/manage micro-system that also includes...

  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 38.8pts (+161.8%) in Scotland
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 12.1pts (+63.8%) for Jamie Gormley
  • 6/17  (35.3%) for 12.4pts (+73%) here at Musselburgh
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 3.38pts (+112.7%) for Jamie here at Musselburgh...

...steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on Frame Rate @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th April 2019

Good Friday's pick was...

4.35 Bath : Bayshore Freeway @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Soon led, ridden and headed over 1f out, stayed on same pace, no chance with winner)

Easter Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.50 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Porth Swtan @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Good ground worth £12450 to the winner..

Why?...

On a bumper day of racing, I've got a stack of data surrounding this 4 yr old gelding who's has won 4 of 7 since the start of the last Flat season and was a winner last time out 18 days ago.

That was here at Musselburgh over today's course and distance and despite being on the comeback from a 168 day absence and making a debut for his new yard and being ridden by today's jockey for the first time, he was still able to see of 3 of today's rivals in the process.

Yes, he's up 3lbs for the win, but he seemed to have more to give last time and should could on for having had the run. Chuck in a handy draw in stall 1 and we should be set for a good run for our money, especially at odds that just looked too long to me.

Numerically, he's suited to the task by already winning 4 from 12 on the Flat, including...

  • 4/9 with the word Good in the official going description
  • 3/5 in handicaps
  • 2/8 at 7f
  • 2/2 going right handed
  • 2/2 in April
  • 1/1 at Class 3 and 1/1 for new trainer Garry Moss
  • 1/1 under jockey Jason Hart, 1/1 here at Musselburgh and ultimately 1/1 over C&D.

Based on the small numbers of runners Garry Moss sends out, you'll not be surprised to see that Porth Swtan is his only runner anywhere today (more on this shortly), as he was 18 days ago and in fact this is only Garry's third entry since Valentine's Day 2017, but that aside, the ones he has sent here to Musselburgh have done well enough.

Overall, his runners are 8/21 (38.1% SR) for 11/13pts (+53% ROI), but this stretches back as far as 2008, so to avoid my decision being clouded by old data, I'm focusing on his record here over the last three seasons ie since April 2016, where his record stands at 6 from 12 (50% SR) for 13.67pts (+114% ROI), all in Flat handicaps.

Of this dozen runners...

  • those sent off at 11/8 to 5/1 are 5/9 (55.6%) for 9.4pts (+104.5%)
  • those last seen 6-25 days ago are 5/8 (62.5%) for 10.4pts (+130%)
  • males are 4/8 (50%) for 11.77pts (+147.1%)
  • 4 yr olds are 3/6 (50%) for 10.16pts (+169.3%)
  • those with 1 previous C&D win are 3/3 (100%) for 7.9pts (+263.3%)
  • at Class 3, it's 2/3 (66.6%, the other was placed!) for 7.88pts (+262.8%)
  • those ridden by Jason Hart are 2/2 (100%) for 8.88pts (+444%)
  • and in April, they are 2/2 (100%) for 7.73pts (+386.5%)

...whilst those sent off at 11/8 to 5/1, some 6-25 days after their last run are 5 from 7 (57.1% SR) for 11.4pts (+162.9%).

But wait! As the patently unfunny "comedian" Jimmy Cricket was fond of saying : there's more!

Earlier I said that Garry only had the one runner today, well it turns out these solo travellers tend to more than pay for the diesel to get them to track, as since 2015 when having just one runner on the day, Garry is 17 from 87 (19.5% SR) for 63.9pts (+73.4% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 16/74 (21.6%) for 72.4pts (+97.8%) in handicaps
  • 15/69 (21.7%) for 73.4pts (+106.4%) from male runners
  • 12/48 (25%) for 77.9pts (+162.4%) within 90 miles of his yard
  • 11/49 (22.5%) for 72.6pts (+148.2%) at 11-45 days since last run
  • 11/50 (22%) for 33pts (+66%) on the Flat
  • 9/31 (29%) for 74pts (+238.8%) from 4/5 yr olds
  • 9/31 (29%) for 59.8pts (193%) over 7f/1m
  • 5/11 (45.6%) for 36pts (+327.4%) in April
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.19pts (+131.3%) here at Musselburgh
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 7.03pts (+100.4%) from those with 1 previous C&D win
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 7.67pts (+85.2%) at Class 3
  • and 3/13 (23.1%) for 3.87pts (+29.8%) with Jason Hart in the saddle...

...whilst from the above...male handicappers sent out on their own less than 90 miles from how after a break of just 11-45 days are 8 from 21 (38.1% SR) for 84.1pts (+400.5% ROI)... I could go on with more data/stats, but I don't want to bore you into submission.

So, happy Easter everyone, Matt's in the hotseat for Monday's pick, I'll be posting Tuesday's selection late on Monday night...

...and I'll sign off with... a 1pt win bet on Porth Swtan @ 9/2 BOG as was offered by Bet365 & SkyBet with plenty of 4/1 BOG widely available at 5.30pm on Good Friday (12.30pm here). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 2nd April 2019

Monday's pick was...

5.45 Newcastle : Busy Street @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (beaten by 2 lengths, report to follow)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

City Tour 5/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Handicap  for 3yo over 7f on Good ground worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?...

Just 3 previous runs to date for this 3 yr old colt and he returns from his winter break to make a handicap debut on quicker ground than he's seen before and at a lower grade than previous. This could all point to a bit of a plot job, but others would know far about those things than I do : I'll just stick to the facts/numbers!

We're with the tried & tested Johnston/Fanning combination today and unsurprisingly, they're doing well again having already clocked up 20 winners from 67 (29.9% SR) for 56.7pts (+84.7% ROI) profit in 2019 and both have good records at this venue.

In fact, Mark Johnston's runners are 72 from 360 (20% SR) for 62.5pts (+17.4% ROI) here at Musselburgh since 2012 and whilst that's excellent, jockey choice plays a massive part in his success.

On the occasions, he hasn't been able to secure Joe Fanning's services, those 360 runners are just 16/137 (11.7%) for a mere 6.6pts (4.82%) profit, but when Joe has been available to ride Mark's horses here, they have won 56 of 223 (25.1% SR) for 55.9pts (+25.1% ROI), from which...

  • those visiting Musselburgh for the first time are 41/163 (25.2%) for 52.1pts (+32%)
  • 3 yr olds are 30/110 (27.3%) for 21.9pts (+20%)
  • those with no previous career wins are 24/78 (30.8%) for 39.4pts (+50.5%)
  • those with three or fewer career runs are 24/76 (31.6%) for 34.4pts (+45.3%)
  • over this 7f course and distance : 21/75 (28%) for 43.1pts (+57.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 24/73 (32.9%) for 18.6pts (+25.4%)
  • in April : 5/19 (26.3%) for 2.1pts (+10.9%)
  • and with horses coming off a 3-9 month break : 6/14 (42.9%) for 5pts (+35.7%)

...and from the above... 2/3 yr olds with no wins from 0 to 3 previous career runs and now coming to Musselburgh for the first time are 19 from 56 (33.9% SR) for 41.3pts (+73.7% ROI), including...

  •  Class 5 : 8/26 (30.8%) for 5.2pts (+20%)
  • at this 7f C&D : 7/25 (28%) for 7.4pts (+29.5%)
  • in April : 4/6 (66.6%) for 12.1pts (+200.8%)
  • and after a 3-9 month absence : 4/6 (66.6%) for 6.2pts (+103.3%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on City Tour 5/1 BOG which was available from Hills at 6.00pm on Monday, as it had been since shortly after 4pm! Not sure wy the other firms haven't opened, but when they do I'll update. 4/1 BOG  seems to be the par at 6.55pm, so in the interests of clarity/fairness I'll declare my results at that price. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 28th February 2019

Wednesday's Pick was...

8.30 Kempton : Rivas Rob Roy @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Chased leader, every chance over 1f out, ridden and chased winner approaching final furlong, no impression inside final furlong, lost 2nd post)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sky Khan 10/3 or 3/1 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 3, 4yo+, Handicap Hurdle over 3m on Good ground, worth £6433 to the winner...

Why?

As I seem to have gone "off the boil" (hardly ideal with that big meeting approaching), I could do with ending the month on a high via a 10 yr old gelding (yes, desperate times!) who was a runner-up at Kelso 37 days ago, but now drops in class, steps up in trip and is effectively 6lbs better off via an easing of his mark and the booking of a 5lb claimer who has the made the frame on both previous outings with this horse.

Our trainer, today, is Lucinda Russell, who has been at this game long enough to know what she's doing and she, like me, knows that she's in with a chance at Musselburgh with horses deemed by the market to be "in with a chance". If that's a little vague, let's put it into numbers...

Lucinda Russell + Musselburgh + shorter than 9/1 SP + 2015-19 = 25/108 (23.2% SR) for 35.5pts (+32.9% ROI), a handy little starting point if you pitched up at the track 5 minutes before racing starts. I, however, have the benefit of time (too much, some would say) to dig deeper into those runners to see which ones in particular are best to follow. After all, that angle is good but has 83 losers!

So, how about taking the 108 and finding out that...

  • males are 24/94 (25.5%) for 41.5pts (+44.1%)
  • handicappers : 24/90 (26.7%) for 44.3pts (+49.2%)
  • 7-11 yr olds : 18/65 (27.7%) for 45.3pts (+69.7%)
  • hurdlers : 14/57 (24.6%) for 34.2pts (+60%)
  • £4k to £8k prize money : 13/48 (27.1%) for 22.5pts (+46.8%)
  • handicap hurdlers : 13/43 (30.2%) for 39pts (+90.8%)
  • stepping up in trip : 9/35 (25.7%) for 17.6pts (+50.3%)
  • 31-45 days since last run : 11/33 (33.3%) for 37.4pts (+113.3%)
  • over this 3m trip : 9/27 (33.3%) for 17.9pts (+66.2%)
  • LTO runners-up are 7/21 (33.3%) for 12.4pts (+59%)
  • in February : 5/20 (25%) for 6.47pts (+32.4%)
  • Class droppers are 5/19 (26.3%) for 11.2pts (+59%)
  • and at Class 3 : 4/15 (26.7%) for 11.07pts (+73.8%)

And if you wanted just around a third of the original sample size, but retaining half of the winners, then male handicap hurdlers competing for less than £8k are 12 from 36 (33.33% SR) for healthy profits of 38pts at an ROI of some 105.5% and closer inspection of these 36 runners shows that...

  • 31-45 dslr = 8/15 (53.3%) for 34pts (+226.4%)
  • 3m C&D : 6/13 (46.2%) for 21.5pts (+165.1%)
  • Up in trip : 6/10 (60%) for 32.23pts (+322.3%)
  • February : 3/7 (42.9%) for 12.7pts (+181.2%)
  • and class droppers are also 3/7 (42.9%), but for 7.7pts profit (+110%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sky Khan 10/3 or 3/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power respectively at 5.45pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th January 2019

Thursday's Pick was...

2.05 Market Rasen : Ontopoftheworld @ 3/1 BOG PU at 7/1 (Led, headed 8th, dropped to rear 10th, eased after 4 out, pulled up before 3 out)

Friday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Elmono @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 3-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ Novices Limited Handicap Chase over 2m7½f on Good ground worth £4938 to the winner...

Why?

As usual, I'll have more to say on this a little later...

...but for now, it's a 1pt win bet on Elmono @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by Betfair and Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. A quick headsup about the next couple of picks : I'm away for the weekend from tomorrow afternoon, so Matt's in the hotseat for Saturday's pick and I'll be doing Monday's pick when I get home, but it won't appear until after midnight Sunday at the earliest! Sorry for any inconvenience caused.

Stat of the Day, 7th January 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

3.35 Sandown : Monsieur Lecoq @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Tracked leader until 3rd, tracked leading pair, 2nd again after 3 out, led travelling well approaching next, came clear before last, won easily by 9 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 1m7½f on Good ground worth £4159 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old filly was third over this course and distance just 6 days ago and would certainly have fared better but for a mistake at the last. A better jumping display under the same jockey off the same mark today should be enough for her to at least be in the mix on the run-in.

Her trainer, Jim Goldie, is 11 from 69 (15.9% SR) for 21.07pts (+30.5% ROI) with sub-12/1 Musselburgh handicap hurdlers since 2008 and to ensure we're not relying on old data, we'll focus on those from 2013 onwards who are 7/40 (17.5% SR) for 18.63pts (+46.6% ROI).

And of those 40...

  • those who raced in the previous 45 days are 6/36 (16.6%) for 17.82pts (+49.5%)
  • those with a top 3 finish LTO are 3/12 (25%) for 13.16pts (+109.7%)
  • top 3 finish LTO in the previous 45 days = 3/11 (27.3%) for 14.16pts (+128.8%)
  • those ridden by Callum Bewley : 2/9 (22.2%) for 7.28pts (+80.9%)
  • Bewley + top 3 LTO = 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.28pts (+442.6%), with all three having raced in the previous 45 days.

Also, over the last two years, Jim Goldie's handicappers turned back out after just 4 to 10 days rest are 33/199 (16.6% SR) for 253.2pts (+127.2% ROI), from which...

  • 3-5 yr olds are 21/105 (20%) for 76pts (+72.3%)
  • Same OR as LTO : 16/101 (15.8%) for 209.3pts (+207.3%)
  • Same Class as LTO : 19/100 (19%) for 233.6pts (+233.6%)
  • Within o.5f of LTO trip : 18/98 (18.4%) for 110.2pts (+112.4%)
  • Females are 14/69 (20.3%) for 102.8pts (+148.9%)
  • Same jockey as LTO : 13/63 (20.6%) for 48.2pts (+76.6%)
  • Class 4 : 6/43 (14%) for 122.8pts (+285.5%)
  • at Musselburgh : 4/16 (25%) for 3.6pts (+14.4%)
  • and 3-5 yr old females at the same OR, class and distance as LTO are 3/9 (33.3%) for 16.44pts (+182.7%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG as was available from pretty much everywhere at 6.50pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th January 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

3.35 Sandown : Monsieur Lecoq @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Tracked leader until 3rd, tracked leading pair, 2nd again after 3 out, led travelling well approaching next, came clear before last, won easily by 9 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 1m7½f on Good ground worth £4159 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old filly was third over this course and distance just 6 days ago and would certainly have fared better but for a mistake at the last. A better jumping display under the same jockey off the same mark today should be enough for her to at least be in the mix on the run-in.

Her trainer, Jim Goldie, is 11 from 69 (15.9% SR) for 21.07pts (+30.5% ROI) with sub-12/1 Musselburgh handicap hurdlers since 2008 and to ensure we're not relying on old data, we'll focus on those from 2013 onwards who are 7/40 (17.5% SR) for 18.63pts (+46.6% ROI).

And of those 40...

  • those who raced in the previous 45 days are 6/36 (16.6%) for 17.82pts (+49.5%)
  • those with a top 3 finish LTO are 3/12 (25%) for 13.16pts (+109.7%)
  • top 3 finish LTO in the previous 45 days = 3/11 (27.3%) for 14.16pts (+128.8%)
  • those ridden by Callum Bewley : 2/9 (22.2%) for 7.28pts (+80.9%)
  • Bewley + top 3 LTO = 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.28pts (+442.6%), with all three having raced in the previous 45 days.

Also, over the last two years, Jim Goldie's handicappers turned back out after just 4 to 10 days rest are 33/199 (16.6% SR) for 253.2pts (+127.2% ROI), from which...

  • 3-5 yr olds are 21/105 (20%) for 76pts (+72.3%)
  • Same OR as LTO : 16/101 (15.8%) for 209.3pts (+207.3%)
  • Same Class as LTO : 19/100 (19%) for 233.6pts (+233.6%)
  • Within o.5f of LTO trip : 18/98 (18.4%) for 110.2pts (+112.4%)
  • Females are 14/69 (20.3%) for 102.8pts (+148.9%)
  • Same jockey as LTO : 13/63 (20.6%) for 48.2pts (+76.6%)
  • Class 4 : 6/43 (14%) for 122.8pts (+285.5%)
  • at Musselburgh : 4/16 (25%) for 3.6pts (+14.4%)
  • and 3-5 yr old females at the same OR, class and distance as LTO are 3/9 (33.3%) for 16.44pts (+182.7%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG as was available from pretty much everywhere at 6.50pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st January 2019

Monday's Pick was...

1.40 Uttoxeter : Gonnabegood @ 11/2 BOG PU at 11/4 (Prominent, driven 14th, soon beaten, pulled up before 2 out)

Tuesday's first pick of the year runs in the...

2.15 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chica Buena @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 2, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on Good ground worth £19494 to the winner...

Why?

Well, as it's New Year's Eve/Day depending on when/if you're reading this, I'm going to keep it brief as we've all more important things to do!

So, we have an in-form now 4yr old filly who has won four races on the bounce since finishing as a runner up in a grade 3 event in Ireland last year, including winning a Listed event by some 23 lengths at Aintree last time out 24 days ago.

That win took her record for her new trainer to 3 from 3 and today's jockey Brian Hughes was on board for all three rides.

And that new trainer?

...is Keith Dalgleish, whose hurdlers priced at 10/1 and shorter are 9 from 29 (31% SR) for 11.7pts (+40.3% ROI) profit, including of relevance today...

  • on Good ground : 5/14 (35.7%) for 7.57pts (+54.1%)
  • in handicaps : 4/14 (28.6%) for 8.95pts (+64%)
  • in December/January : 4/12 (33.3%) for 16.91pts (+140.9%)
  • 3/4 yr olds are 4/10 (40%) for 18.3pts (+183%)
  • 16-45 dslr : 6/15 (40%) for 15.1pts (+100.7%)
  • over this 1m7½f course and distance : 2/7 (28.6%) for 5.82pts (+83.2%)
  • and LTO winners are 3 from 4 (75%) for 3.51pts (+87.8%)

...and this simple approach gives us... a 1pt win bet on Chica Buena @ 4/1 BOG, as was available from Betfair, BetVictor, Coral & Hills at 7.25pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th November 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

8.15 Wolverhampton : Fume @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Chased leaders, ridden to lead inside final furlong, headed towards finish and beaten by a neck) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Why?

Nice and simple today with a 5 yr old gelding who toughed it out to virtually make all when winning at Bangor two starts ago. He was then only 7th of 14 on his handicap debut at Kelso next/last time out, having weakened very badly in the closing stages from a position where he had every chance 2 out. He has, however, had a wind op since then and if that does the trick, a mark of 115 might be too low for this one.

Stat-wise, it's pretty simple as I intimated in my pre-amble : trainer Donald McCain + Musselburgh + 2012-18 = 45 from 195 (23.1% SR) for 56.1pts (+28.8% ROI), from which...

  • Class 4 runners are 21/82 (25.6%) for 51.3pts (+62.6%)
  • 2016-18 = 15/65 (23.1%) for 34.7pts (+53.4%)
  • over this 2m trip : 24/62 (38.7%) for 59.5pts (+96%)
  • 5 yr olds are 14/39 (35.9%) for 19.3pts (+49.6%)
  • and his handicap hurdlers are 6/27 (22.2%) for 26.6pts (+98.7%) since the start of 2016...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Val Mome @ 5/1 BOG, as offered by at least half a dozen firms at 5.30pm on Sunday evening. (extra point is available from Bet365) To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th November 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

8.15 Wolverhampton : Fume @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Chased leaders, ridden to lead inside final furlong, headed towards finish and beaten by a neck) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Val Mome @ 5/1 BOG  

...in a 9-runner, Class 4,  Novices Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m on Good ground worth £4938 to the winner...

Why?

Nice and simple today with a 5 yr old gelding who toughed it out to virtually make all when winning at Bangor two starts ago. He was then only 7th of 14 on his handicap debut at Kelso next/last time out, having weakened very badly in the closing stages from a position where he had every chance 2 out. He has, however, had a wind op since then and if that does the trick, a mark of 115 might be too low for this one.

Stat-wise, it's pretty simple as I intimated in my pre-amble : trainer Donald McCain + Musselburgh + 2012-18 = 45 from 195 (23.1% SR) for 56.1pts (+28.8% ROI), from which...

  • Class 4 runners are 21/82 (25.6%) for 51.3pts (+62.6%)
  • 2016-18 = 15/65 (23.1%) for 34.7pts (+53.4%)
  • over this 2m trip : 24/62 (38.7%) for 59.5pts (+96%)
  • 5 yr olds are 14/39 (35.9%) for 19.3pts (+49.6%)
  • and his handicap hurdlers are 6/27 (22.2%) for 26.6pts (+98.7%) since the start of 2016...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Val Mome @ 5/1 BOG, as offered by at least half a dozen firms at 5.30pm on Sunday evening. (extra point is available from Bet365) To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th September 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

8.45 Chelmsford : Sonnet Rose @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 13/8 (Off the pace towards rear, still plenty to do 2f out, headway on outside over 1f out, hampered inside final furlong, kept on, too much to do)

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Zeshov @ 11/4 or 3/1 BOG  

In a 9-runner, Class 5, 1m Flat Handicap for 3yo+ on Good ground, worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding actually won this very race two years ago, when also down as carrying 9st 7lbs and more recently was only beaten by a head last time out. That was also over this course and distance, when he was nailed in the final strides 8 days ago. He runs off the same mark again today, so jockey Jamie Gormley's 3lb claim might just make all the difference here.

Jamie is riding well at present, winning 10 of his 54 rides (18.5% SR) over the last 4 weeks recording profits of 17.4pts at an ROI of 32.3% if anyone was backing him blindly and of those 54 rides, he is...

  • 9/48 (18.75%) for 19.2pts (+40.1%) on the Flat
  • 10/47 (21.3%) for 24.4pts (+52%) in handicaps
  • 9/41 (22%) for 26.2pts (+64%) in Flat handicaps
  • 6/29 (20.7%) for 16.3pts (+56.3%) in Scotland
  • 6/26 (23.1%) for 19.3pts (+74.3%) in Flat handicaps run in Scotland
  • 5/18 (27.8%) for 13.2pts (+73.6%) at Class 5
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 20.2pts (+184%) in Class 5 Flat handicaps
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 12.7pts (+211.3%) in Class 5 Flat handicaps run in Scotland!

I said that Zeshov won this race two years ago and narrowly failed over C&D last time out and these two runs form part of his 2 wins & 2 places from 5 runs at Musselburgh in total, including 2 wins, 2 places from four over this 1m course and distance : all at Class 5.

Now onto our trainer, Rebecca Bastiman, for she has done well here at this venue of late, seeing her horses win 10 of 45 (22.2% SR) handicaps over the last two seasons generating level stakes profits of 21.8pts (+48.6% ROI) and of these runners, who are all males by the way...

  • in fields of 6-10 runners : 9/34 (26.5%) for 26.9pts (+79.2%)
  • those rated (OR) 55-85 are 10/30 (33.3%) for 36.9pts (+123%)
  • 6-9 yr olds are 9/25 (36%) for 38.1pts (+152.4%)
  • at odds of 6/1 and shorter : 9/25 (36%) for 22.8pts (+91.2%)
  • 6-20 days since last run : 6/22 (27.3%) for 22.2pts (+101%)
  • won or beaten by less than 4L LTO : 7/18 (38.9%) for 17.6pts (+97.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 4/15 (26.7%) for 6.87pts (+45.8%)
  • and 7 yr olds are 3/9 (33.3%) for 6.83pts (+75.9%)

AND...from the above...6-9 yr olds rated 55-85 at odds of 6/1 and shorter in fields of 6-10 runners are 7/12 (58.3% SR) for 26.1pts (+217.8% ROI).

Although jockey Jamie Gormley has never actually ridden on this track for trainer Rebecca Bastiman before, the partnership has 3 wins from 8 (37.5% SR) for 5.83pts (+72.9% ROI) profit in Class 4/5 handicaps in Scotland this year, with a further 3 of the 5 losers making the frame...

...all pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Zeshov @ 11/4 or 3/1 BOG, prices offered by SkyBet & Bet365 respecively as of 5.45pm on Thursday evening. I will, of course, be settling at 11/4 BOG,. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th March 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

3.45 Hexham : Itstimeforapint @ 5/1 BOG  4th at 5/1 Held up last, mistake 2nd, left modest 4th 19th, ridden and weakened after 2 out.

And now we move on to Friday's...

11.30 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Nendrum @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 2m0.5f handicap hurdle (4yo+) on good ground worth £4,094 to the winner...

Why?

An in-form 9yr old gelding who has finished 3121 in his last four starts, all at today's Class 4 under today's jockey Jamie Hamilton with three of those races (311) taking place here at Musselburgh. He was last seen 30 days ago winning here by three lengths and putting another winner on the board for trainer Sandy Thomson, who over the last two years...

...has 35 winners from 195 NH (17.95% SR) runners yielding 224.1pts profit at an ROI of 114.9% and these figures include...

  • males at 35/174 (20.1%) for 245.1pts (+140.9%)
  • at Class 4 : 18/97 (18.6%) for 203.6pts (+209.9%)
  • over hurdles : 16/97 (16.5%) for 202.3pts (+208.5%)
  • at odds of 6/5 to 5/1 : 23/73 (31.5%) for 17.5pts (+23.9%)
  • over trips of 2m1f and shorter : 13/48 (27.1%) for 211.9pts (+441.5%)
  • here at Musselburgh : 10/36 (27.8%) for 28.7pts (+79.8%)
  • and 9yr olds are 5/16 (31.25%) for 8.56pts (+53.5%)

The above profit & respective ROI figures are admittedly skewed by a 66/1 non-handicap winner, but that doesn't detract from some excellent strike rates and if you just took male Class 4 handicap hurdlers at odds of 6/5 to 9/1, like we have today, you'd have 6 winners from 11 (54.6% SR) for 19pts (+172.5% ROI) profit, from which...

  • here at Musselburgh : 2/4 for 5.02pts
  • 2m1f and shorter : 2/2 for 5.02pts
  • 9 yr olds : 2/2 for 5.02pts

AND... 9 yr olds here at Musselburgh over 2m1f and shorter = 2/2 for 5.02pts, achieved by Nendrum on his two visits here with Jamie Hamilton in the saddle this year!

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Nendrum @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, SkyBet, SportPesa & 10Bet at 5.30pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 11.30 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd February 2018

Friday's Result :

4.15 Lingfield : Easy Tiger @ 4/1 BOG WON at 9/2 Made all, set steady pace until quickened over 2f out, held on well to win by 0.75 lengths...

We continue with Saturday's...

3.15 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Delusionofgrandeur @ 5/1 BOG

A Class 2, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 4m1f on Good To Soft ground worth £25,024 to the winner...

Why?

An 8 yr old gelding with four wins and three places from his last nine efforts over fences and he has won three of five starts on good to soft ground, including two from three over fences.

His yard is in good form too with Sue Smith's runners winning four of eleven over the past seven days, with five of the seven "losers" managing to make the frame.

Since 2012, Sue's handicap chasers racing at trips of 2m5f and beyond on ground with the word soft in the going description are 42 from 297 (14.1% SR) generating level stakes profits of 121.8pts at an ROI of some 41%.

And, of those 297 runners, those that were Sue's only runner at a given track that day went on to win 7 of 31 (22.6% SR) for 36.6pts (+117.9% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Delusionofgrandeur @ 5/1 BOG which was available from around a half dozen firms at 6.20pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd January 2018

Tuesday's Result :

6.10 Newcastle : Shamshon @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 3/1 In touch, ridden over 1f out, no extra inside final furlong, beaten by 2.5 lengths.

Next up is Wednesday's...

3.00 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mixboy @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 3, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m on Good to Soft ground worth £10.007 to the winner...

Why?

Keith Dalgleish is better known for his prowess with Flat/AW runners, but also does quite well with a smaller string of NH horses and to date, his record with chasers stands at 11 wins from 28 (39.3% SR) for 21pts (+75% ROI) profit, all from male horses! It's a small sample size, but does show that he knows what he's doing and in respect of today's contest, those 28 chasers are...

  • 10/20 (50%) for 27.25pts (+136.3%) at odds of 6/4 to 8/1
  • 8/13 (61.5%) for 20.86pts (+160.5%) over trips of 2m to 2m4f
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 3.71pts (+53.1%) at Class 3
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 2.35pts (+58.8%) here at Musselburgh

He now runs this dual-purpose 8 yr old gelding, who won 3 of 5 starts over fences in 2016/17, including a 21 lengths success in this race last year before reverting back to the Flat/AW, where he won 2 of 4 ahead of today's return to chasing. So, he effectively comes here on a run of 5 from 9, but it's his 3/5 chasing record that's more relevant here, as it contains...

  • 3/3 when priced shorter than 4-1 & 3/3 in fields of 4-8 runners
  • 2/2 over trips of 2m/2m0.5f & 1/1 here at Musselburgh
  • 1/1 over C&D + 1/1 at Class 3 (Both in this race in 2017)
  • 1/1 in January and 1/1 going right handed (also both here in 2017)

Plus, since 2010, chasers who ran on either the Flat or A/W last time out and either won or lost by less than 15 lengths then won 110 of 720 (15.3% SR) returns to chasing, generating 431.4pts (+59.9% ROI) profit, including...

  • males at 98/653 (15%) for 418.9pts (+64.1%)
  • handicappers at 58/391 (14.8%) for 233.6pts (+59.7%)
  • 31-45 days since last run : 19/80 (23.75%) for 250.2pts (+312.8%)
  • and here at Musselburgh : 3/12 (25%) for 2.72pts (+22.7%)

...giving us...... a 1pt win bet on Mixboy @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy Power at 5.50pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!