Tag Archive for: Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Tuesday 04/07/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...none of which really grab my attention. Thankfully, as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 3.17 Hamilton
  • 3.27 Brighton
  • 3.45 Tipperary
  • 7.20 Roscommon
  • 9.00 Ffos Las

...from which, despite the small field, the 3.17 Hamilton looks the best. It's a 6-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right handed 1m½f on good to soft ground...

The early (just after 2pm) opening show suggests that it could be a tight contest, with only Barley considered to be here to make up the numbers...

...and that might partially be because he's up in class here after three fairly poor efforts at Class 3. He is eased a pound, but you have to worry about his chances here. Top weight Austrian Theory is also up in class, despite only finishing 7th of 8 last time out, although he did win at this class/trip two starts ago.

Bottom weight Maysong is the sole LTO winner, having beaten the re-opposing pair Eilean Dubh (3rd) and Repertoire by 0.5 and 4 lengths respectively, but this pair are 9lbs and 12lbs better off here today, as Maysong isn't riden by his 7lb claimer. Repertoire did win over a mile at Class 4 three starts ago, but has toiled in this grade since.

Both EileanDubh and Barley wear first-time tongue ties, whilst it's a cheekpiece debut for Fantastic Fox, who along with Austrian Theory and Eilean Dubh are our three course and distance winners. The other three have yet to win here at Hamilton but have all scored over a similar trip.

All six have raced in the last 11 to 32 days, so no rustiness expected, nor are any thrown back in too quickly and we've no three year olds to muddy the waters with their weight allowances!

Further stats are available via Instant Expert, which says that only three of these have raced on good to soft ground before with just one successful, And we also find that Fantastic Fox's turf record at Class 2 really isn't very good...

The entire field are racing off marks 2 to 4lbs higher than their last winning marks, so there's little in it there. The Fox's 0/11 at Class 2 is a concern, as is Repertoire's 0 from 9. The other issue is Maysong failing to win any of seven attempts on good to soft ground, but he has managed to make the frame a few times...

...and whilst his win stats make me wary of backing him, his place data is probably the best on show, so a possible placer here? Mind you, unless something tells me to get on Barley, there'll be no E/W bet today, as 5/1 isn't long enough for me. Austrian Theory won this race last year but that was on good to firm, where he is 3 from 8 as opposed to his 0 from 11 elsewhere. Repertoire is the clear weak link on Instant Expert.

I don't expect any of these to be handed an advantage by the draw, as previous past contests here have gone like this...

...whilst the pace stats for those same races have really favoured those keen to get on with things...

...hold-up horses tend to struggle here from win a win and a place perspective and that's yet more bad news for Repertoire, based on his last four outings...

Summary

Repertoire was poor on Instant Expert and might well get left behind, based on his pace profile, so he's out. Maysong beat Eilean Dubh by half a length last time out and scored well on IE, but he's 9lbs worse off here and is another who might get outpaced, so he's gone too.

Austrian Theory won this last year and will probably attempt to win from the front here, but his record on anything slower than good to firm is abject and he has a tendency to run out of steam on these slower surfaces. All of which leaves us with three. Barley is unfancied by the early market and he's up in class after a series of poor runs in a lower grade. Surely he's not suddenly winning here?

So, almost by default, I've got Eilean Dubh and Fantastic Fox left to deal with and the latter simply isn't a Class 2 runner based on his past efforts, so I have to agree with the bookies by saying Eilean Dubh is the one to beat. Don't get me wrong, he's no standout here, but he's arguably the "least bad". A 9lb pull for a half length defeat is really beneficial and if he tracks the leader(s) as expected, he should win. 5/2 is probably about the right price, but I won't be lumping on in what looks a fairly mediocre race for a Class 2.

Next best might well be Maysong. Yeah, he's that 9lbs worse off here, but with an LTO win and two wins, two places from his last six, he might be the one for your forecast/exacta.

Racing Insights, Monday 03/07/23

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Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 4.10 Southwell
  • 6.45 Windsor
  • 7.00 Musselburgh
  • 7.15 Windsor

...from which, I'm going to look at the 6.45 Windsor, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...

Sterling Knight was a winner last time out and is three from five, bottom weight Expert Agent is denoted as a fast finisher and has won three of his last four, whilst only Silver Samurai and Dig Two have failed to win any of their last five outings (9 & 8 respectively to be precise).

Five of these (Lethal Nymph, Silver Samurai, LTO winner Sterling Knight, Mister Bluebird & Dig Two) are stepping up a class here whilst Silver Sumarai and Dig Two both sport a tongue-tie for the first time. Bottom weight Expert Agent is the sole 3 yr old in the field and gets a handy 6lbs weight allowance for that.

The entire field have all won at this trip already and four (Tanmawwy, Sterling Knight, Aphelios & Dora Penny) have won over course and distance, whilst Mister Bluebird has scored here over 5f. Aphelios hasn't raced for 75 days, but that shouldn't be an issue and the others have all been out inside the last two weeks to two months.

Instant Expert adds to the above data with details on six previous good to firm winners and three Class 2 victors...

...but this data doesn't have a standout runner, sadly. it does highlight the fact that Silver Samurai has struggled at going/class and that Mister Bluebird might not be suited by the 6f trip. A further look at the place stats suggests that Aphelios is an early contender for a place here...

...whilst Sterling Knight certainly gets both track and trip and Mister Bluebird's record at 6f might not be as bad as I first feared.

As you'd expect on a fast, straight 6f, there's very little (if any) advantage from the draw here...

...which leads us to our free feature, the PACE and those races above have tended to be won by those racing furthest forward...

Prominent runners win approximately 50% more often than those further back, whilst leaders win 50% more often than the prominent runners and go on to make the frame in almost half of their races, which based on this field's recent efforts...

...would seem to be bad news for the likes of Silver Samurai, Dora Penny and Expert Agent. LTO winner Sterling Knight changed tactics to win here over course and distance a fortnight ago, so I'd expect him to be further up that chart for this race, which will probably be led out by Mister Bluebird in the early stages.

Summary

Mister Bluebird is the likely leader here, which gives him a very good chance of at least making the frame, based on the pace stats for this track and trip. He was sharp enough to win here over 5f and his place stats were decent enough on Instant Expert, so he's be a good shout for the frame here. He doesn't, however, win often enough and I feel that if Sterling Knight runs as he did here a fortnight ago, he's the one to beat. He'll be up with the pace and is in good form.

Sterling Knight is currently 4/1, which might be a touch short, whilst Mister Bluebird's 11/2 is definitely too short for me to want to back him E/W and I agree with the early market that the likes of the 4/1 Aphelios is sure to be involved. None of the longer-priced (8/1 and bigger) horses really appeal to me here, either.

Racing Insights, Saturday 01/07/23

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Wow! The second half of the year is already upon us and it kicks off on a Saturday, whose free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated just one qualifier, as follows...

Thankfully I do also have our selection of daily 'free' races at my disposal...

  • 12.40 Newmarket
  • 1.57 Chester
  • 2.05 Newcastle
  • 2.50 Curragh
  • 3.50 Newcastle
  • 5.30 Lingfield

The 'free' list is headed by a Listed contest from HQ, but unexposed 2yr old fillies aren't really my thing and the Northumberland Plate has far too many (19) runners for my liking, but not long after the Plate comes a useful looking contest on the 'free' list at the same venue, so let's look at the 3.50 Newcastle today. It's an 8-runner (fingers crossed), Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard to slow tapeta...

Bottom weight Shimmering Sands was the only one of these to win last time out, but all his rivals have won at least one of their last seven outings. Qaasid is in good consistent form, finishing in the first three home in 8 of his last 9 nine starts (inc 2 wins) and he's the only previous course and distance winner in the field and also the only one to have raced at Class 3 last time out.

Elsewhere, Mr Curiosity, Thundering, Noble & Persist all drop in from Class 2, whilst the bottom three on the card, Cockalorum, Innse Gall and Shimmering Sands are all up in class. Aside from C&D winner, Qaasid, only Thundering has won here before, landing a 1m4½f handicap a little over a year ago, but he's one of two along with Mr Curiosity yet to win at today's trip.

The afore-mentioned Mr Curiosity might well need the run after 238 days off the track and at 273 days, you could say the same about Persist, whilst both of their rivals have raced in the past 5 to 7 weeks, bar Cockalorum who was in action at Pontefract last Sunday and will be running for the fourth time since the end of May!

Cockalorum has, in fact, competed 48 times already, whilst this will be just a fifth outing for Nobel and only his second in handicap company, but he did win his sole A/W outing. Instant Expert adds to the above data by informing us that a couple of these are running off marks considerably higher than their last win...

I've a feeling that the place stats might help us a little bit more in the way of data...

...but I'm not sure they clarify the picture for me! Good to see so much green, of course and this remains the course if we look at just A/W form...

...with the sole exception of Shimmering Sands, who tackles the A/W for the first time after ten runs on Turf. He's 3 from 3 over 1m2f including that win LTO, but he's up in class and weight and that allied to no A/W experience might just be too many unknowns here. He's drawn pretty centrally, though, in stall 4 of 8 and is likely to have to pass quite a few runners later on if he's wanting to win again, as the field's recent runs suggest he's probably going to be held up in the rear with the returning Persist...

A quick look at past similar races here says that Shimmering Sand's lower half draw is ideal here, but that his hold-up tactics haven't been the best approach here, as those tracking the leader(s) have fared best of all...

...which is probably better for the likes of Qaasid, just inside him in stall 3, whilst our pace/draw heat map looks like this with our runners superimposed on it...

Nobel is likely to set the pace, but Qaasid seems to have the ideal draw/pace profile here. Thundering will go off quickly, but he's in terrible form, whilst the draw might account for Cockalorum.

Summary

The pace/draw heat map says we should focus on Persist, Thundering, Qaasid and Noble. Noble's a little high in the draw and will be the target they aim for, he's also not in the best of form and has only one prior A/W outing, way back in December 2021. Qaasid, however, is in good nick, has the ideal pace/draw balance and is 2 from 3 on standard to slow and he's the one I'd want to be with here. he's a 5/1 shot in my book, so Bet365's price of 11/2 (at 4.40pm) is acceptable to me.

Of the others, Persist should go well and he'd be a real contender for me off his low draw if he'd had a run at some point in the last nine months and odds of 3/1 aren't appealing. The one at a longer price that might go well for E/W purposes could be Innse Galle near the foot of the weights. He has made the frame in 6 of 7 at this trip, placed twice in four Newcastle outings including two from three over course and distance (a 1-length defeat as runner-up in March) and although this is tougher than his usual races, he's not a bad E/W shout at 10/1.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 30/06/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded a couple of qualifiers...

...and this report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 5.10 Yarmouth
  • 6.05 Curragh
  • 7.00 Newmarket
  • 7.10 Newcastle
  • 7.25 Chester
  • 7.50 Curragh

...and of the four 'free' UK races and the two on my H4C list, the highest-rated is the 8.45 Newmarket, an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f (+25yds for rails) on ground that is currently good to soft...

The early (3.30pm) show from the bookies suggested a three horse race between Peace Man (2/1 fav), Like A Tiger (4/1) and First Sight (also 4/1) with no other runner shorter than 17/2. The bookies may well be right, but there's also the chance of an E/W bet from the challengers, so let's dive in...

Peace Man and First Sight both come here on a hat-trick, so at least one winning run will end here. None of the others managed to win last time out, but all bar Cap Francais have won won at least one of their last five runs.

Plenty of these are class movers today with only four (Gloucestershire, hat-trick seeking Peace Man, Queen of the Skies and bottom weight The Parent) having raced at Class 3 last time around. Of the other eight, three (Turntable, Encourageable & Cap Francais) drop down from Class 2, whilst Like A Tiger and Regal Empire were both last seen in Listed company. Two then step up in class here; Inigo Jones and hat-trick seeker First Sight, who move from Class 4 and 5 respectively.

Not only is First Sight up two classes here, this will be his turf debut after winning two from three on the A/W and this is his handicap debut. It's a second handicap run for Queen of the Skies and Like A Tiger, whilst Inigo Jones runs for Alice Haynes for the first time since leaving Jamie Osborne. Cap Francais aims to get off the cold list by wearing first time cheekpieces.

First Sight returns from 22 weeks off the track and both Gloucestershire and Inigo Jones also come off 100+ day breaks, but the rest of the field have been seen in the last eight weeks; The Parent raced as recently as the 17th of this month.

Turntable is the only previous course winner, having scored over a mile here back in July 2020, but has won over 1m, 1m1f and today's 1m2f trip on the Rowley course! Peace Man, Queen of the Skies, Inigo Jones, Like A Tiger and First Sight have all also won over a similar trip before now.

We have four three year olds in the race here and they're the four lowest weights (ie last four on the card, thanks to a very useful 12lbs weight for age allowance which moves Like A Tiger from 1lb shy of top weight all the way down to 8th in the weights, which could be very handy for him, First Sight, Regal Empire and The Parent.

It is, of course, First Sight's turf debut, so he has no stats to show on the following Instant Expert graphic, which also highlights three previous winners on good to soft ground and five Class 3 winners as well as the course/distance victors mentioned earlier...

There's not actually that much data to work from here and First Sight's lack of Flat activity is probably no worse than having tried and failed. He runs for the in-form (as always!) Charlie Appleby who has a great record here at HQ, so there's no doubt that the horse will have been well prepped. I'm not taking much from that graphic above, other than making a note of Cap Francais' poor record at the trip, but I will just have a quick look at place stats before moving on to the draw...

Cap Francais hasn't been that unlucky over the trip either and The Parent looks better suited at class 4, where he finished 313, as opposed to his three runs ending 463 at this level (3rd of 7 LTO). Turntable has fared better over 1m and 1m1f, but his record here at Newmarket is excellent and he really gets the good to soft ground. He's drawn quite high in 8 of the 11 stalls and this track/trip has favoured those drawn little lower in the past...

You'll notice that I've had to tweak a criteria a little to give myself some data to work with, but the stall by stall numbers seem to back up the graphic above...

...but whilst you'd want stalls 1 to 5 (good for the two jt 2nd favs), there's not a huge bias at play here, especially on the place stats and as is often the case in races beyond a mile the pace of the contest becomes more of a key factor and those races above have favoured those setting the fractions...

...which, based on the field's recent efforts, would appear to be more advantageous to Peace Man that for example Cap Francais...

Summary

Sadly I concur with the bookies and Peace Man is the one to beat here. he ticks the box on form, won at this grade LTO, gets the trip and is likely to lead. Stall 9 isn't ideal, but if you're good enough, you're good enough. He was still 2/1 with Hills at 4.40pm, when I checked back and that was the Oddschecker tissue price, so I suppose that's fair.

The two 4/1 shots Like A Tiger and First Sight will need their 12lb weight allowance to stay competitive here, as I'm not sure they're as good as the fav and one or both might well make the frame. I'm not sure they would without the allowance and if one/both falter, I'd probably side with bottom weight and Frankel-offspring The Parent to take advantage as my E/W possible at 17/2. Turntable would need to up his game here, but that's not beyond the realms of possibility and for those brave enough to back him, 16/1 could be a great price, especially with some firms paying four places.

I apologise for the predictable outcome, but sometimes you have to agree with the bookies!

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 29/06/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.00 Newmarket
  • 2.10 Newcastle
  • 4.20 Newmarket
  • 5.30 Newmarket

...from which, the 'best' looks like the 4.20 Newmarket, an 8-runner (fingers crossed for E/W bettors), Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

None of these won last time out, but Urban Sprawl was an excellent 3rd of 29 off this mark in the Britannia at Royal Ascot last week and also won three starts ago, both at a higher grade than this. Elsewhere wins are sparse, but Final Watch won five races ago whilst Chola Empire & Dancinginthewoods both won six back.

Urban Sprawl's excellent showing at Ascot was at a class higher than today and he now drops down, as does Final Watch from a run here at HQ on the Rowley when last home of eight. The bottom two on the card, G'daay and Dancinginthewoods, both step up a class, despite failing to make the frame at Class 4 LTO.

The latter of those, Dancinginthewoods, has been off the track the longest at 112 days and Final Watch's last run was eight weeks ago, but the other half dozen have all raced in the last three weeks with Urban Sprawl rested for just a week, of course. He runs off the same mark here and as the sole three year old in this field, gets a very handy 9lb weight allowance if that Ascot display wasn't impressive enough!

All eight have already won over this trip with both Mitrosonfire and Final Watch having scored over course and distance, whilst Dancinginthewoods is a 6f winner over the July course, but according to Instant Expert, his turf record at Class 3 and 7f leave quite a bit to be desired...

...but he is 6lbs lower than his last win. Able Kane has also toiled in this grade and G'daay is yet to set the world alight on turf over 7f, but Mitrosonfire has some respectable numbers to support his case and he probably catches the eye most here, whilst the place stats suggest that Final Watch might go well off the same mark as his last win...

Only Chola Empire has failed to register so far, but having made the frame 7 times from 8 A/W starts over this trip (inc 2 wins), I wouldn't necessarily rule him out just yet, so I approach the draw stats with a full complement of eight runners to choose from and our Draw Analyser (and PRB3 stats in particular) say there's very little advantage from any stall...

That's not entirely surprising though, really. A straight track shouldn't really favour any part of the draw. Stall 1 often does better because they have the rail to keep them straight and I'm guessing that those drawn widest (8 of 8 and 9 of 9) don't do as well because they've nothing on the other side of them to stop them straying. They do, however, make the frame as often (if not slightly more) as expected. This lack of any real draw bias thus shifts the emphasis onto running styles/tactics etc aka pace and my guess would be that over a straight 7 on quick ground, you want to be up with the leaders if not actually leading and this theory is amply backed up by the data from our Pace Analyser...

...which heavily favours those racing prominently and/or leading. Leaders don't always hold on to see the winners' enclosure, but over 45% of them make the frame, whilst almost 42% of those prominent runners making the frame go on to win, a very healthy conversion rate.

So, we're not too invested in the draw, but we would like a runner that 'gets on with it' and if we look at the field's most recent outings...

...it's another tick for Urban Sprawl with Mitrosonfire and Able Kane the ones most likely to try and keep him company. Final Watch may well have good place stats on Instant Expert, but he's going to struggle from so far off the pace.

Summary

It has to be Urban Sprawl, doesn't it? A Class 2 winner at Goodwood at the end of May and third in a big field at Royal Ascot last week off this mark, he's in great nick. He has a 9lb weight allowance and is the likely leader here. If he runs anything like he did last week, he could well tear this up. Sadly he's already priced at 5/4 with Bet365 and I'm not usually playing with big enough stakes to make those odds worthwhile, but if you're not averse to shorties, there might still be some value in the price, as he might well go off at odds on.

Of the rest, I'd love Chola Empire to replicate his 7f A/W form onto grass, but a best price of 9/2 gives me nothing to work with for an unproven turf runner. Final Watch could have been an E/W possible, but again 13/2 is too short for a hold-up horse, but I quite like the chances of Mitrosonfire here. He scored well on Instant Expert and probably needed the run at Goodwood last time out, but was only 5.5 lengths off the winner despite being off for six months and at 9/1 here could be worth an E/W play, whilst Able Kane is also interesting at 10's with the tongue tie back on and down below his last winning mark. Statistically, he's well suited to make the frame based on the going, his mark, the field size, the number of days since his last run and it being a straight track.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 28/06/23

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Wednesday's free GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss.

Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way! And as ever, we ask you to please refer to our User Guide for further information.

In addition to the TS report, we also have the following fully functional free racecards...

  • 1.58 Worcester
  • 3.28 Worcester
  • 4.28 Worcester
  • 5.30 Naas
  • 7.00 Naas
  • 7.20 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report ...

...have actually generated the following...

Both my TS qualifiers list and the selection of 'free' races are heavily Worcester-oriented, so we'll go there for the highest rated contest on the card, the 4.28 Worcester, an 11-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m4f on good ground...

Plenty of these have some good results in their more recent form line; Everyonesgame and Galata Bridge both won last time out, whilst Clear The Runway is 5 from 7, 6 from 9 and 7 from 11! Accidental Rebel is 4 from 6, Solo Saxophone is 2 from 5 and Finisk River has won four of his last six. Merry Berry is 4 from 5 and Jamacho is 3 from 5, 4 from 8 and 5 from 10. Conversely Luttrell Lad is winless in his last dozen outings and Celestial Horizon has lost his last eight, beating just nine runners across those races in which he failed complete four times!

Those two on the cold list are amongst just four runners (with Clear The Runway & Eritage) who ran at this grade last time out, as Solo Saxophone, Finisk River, Merry Berry and Jamacho all step up from Class 3, whilst our two LTO winners, Everyonesgame and Galata Bridge are up from Class 4 here. Accidental Rebel, however, drops down from a heavy defeat in a Group 2 race at Kelso back in March, although he did win in that grade two starts ago.

He hasn't raced for 116 days now and whilst he might well need the run, he hasn't been away as long as the likes of Finisk River, Eritage and Merry Berry, whose layoffs are 214, 312 and 382 days respectively. This quartet aside, the field have all raced in the last six weeks and this will be Everyonesgame's handicap debut after Class 4 wins in a maiden and a novice event in April & May of this year.

Luttrell Lad has already won here at Worcester in a 2m hurdle, Jamacho has won over hurdles twice here at 2m½f, whilst Clear The Runway landed a Class 2, 2m1f chase here back in October. He has also won over today's trip elsewhere, as have Eritage, Everyonesgame and Merry Berry, whilst Accidental Rebel, Solo Saxophone and Finisk River have all scored over track and trip, leaving just Celestial Horizon and Galata Bridge to have won neither!

Instant Expert says the entire field have at least one good ground hurdle/bumper win to their names and that two of them have already won at Class 2. We already know that Accidental Rebel is a former Class 1 winner, but so is Celestial Horizon...

Solo Saxophone and Accidental Rebel look well suited here with the latter really coming to the fore in handicap hurdles...

...but he is 10lbs higher than his last win, which could prove problematical and three of his four career wins have been at Class 4.

The recent pace profiles for this field are interesting, as it looks like we might well have four of them battling it out for the lead, whilst the rest sit off and watch until later...

Merry Berry likes good ground and has a decent record over this trip, so if this track/trip suits front-runners, then she might well be in luck. And having consulted our Pace Analyser...

...that leading quartet are likely to be of great interest.

Summary

Before I looked closely at the race, I liked Galata Bridge. Good ground suits him, he gets on well with today's jockey and he won nicely last time out, but he's up in weight, trip and class here, so I'll be leaving him alone. If Accidental Rebel runs like two starts ago and not like LTO, then he'd be difficult to beat, but at a best price of 5/1, there's not much value there for me and the same applies to the 6/1 offered about Merry Berry. She's suited by going, trip and pace, but I'd want to back her E/W and 6's are a bit short for that purpose.

Should the mare drift, then she'd be a valid E/W proposition, but until then I think Solo Saxophone is the one to do that. He has good numbers across Instant Expert, will be up with the pace and was sharpened up on the Flat recently. He'd need plenty of luck to win this, but at 11/1 is a solid E/W chance.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 27/06/23

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Apologies for a lack of Insights for Monday, I was at a surprise wedding on Sunday, but I'm back now and The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Casilli would be of most initial obvious interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 5.20 Beverley
  • 8.05 Newton Abbot
  • 8.25 Newbury
  • 8.40 Newton Abbot

And I think I'll have a look at the 6yr old mare Casilli from The Shortlist. She's the sole female in the 4.15 Beverley, which is an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

Bashful is the form horse here, having won his last two, but only Strawman, Freak Out and Shine On Brendan are winless in at least five (9, 9 & 10 respectively to be precise) outings.

Joint top weights Westernesse and Strawman are the only two to have raced at this grade last time out, as featured runner Casilli now drops down from Class 3 with the remainder of the field all stepping up from Class 5. This will be Bobby's Blessing's handicap debut after just two starts over 7½f, including a win here on debut, but this is a big step up in trip.

Westernesse and Shine On Brendan have won at neither track nor trip, but Bashful and Freak Out are distance winners at Newcastle, whilst Strawman, Casilli (of course) and Frankendael are all former course and distance winners.

Strawman and Bashful both raced as recently as last Wednesday and the entire field have been out in the last four weeks, so there shouldn't be any rustiness on display. Instant Expert will, of course, show why Casilli is on The Shortlist, but it also tells us that half of the field have won on good to firm ground, just three have won at Class 4 on turf and that a couple of these have a really poor record at the trip...

So the concerns here are...

GOING : Strawman, Freak Out & Shine On Brendan
CLASS : Freak Out
DISTANCE : Bashful & Freak Out

And before I even look at the place stats, I'm crossing Freak Out off the list! And having looked at the place stats...

...I'm also ruling Frankendael out of my thoughts, leaving me with runners in stalls 1 and 2 plus 5 to 8 inclusive for a contest that has, in the past, favoured those drawn in the lower half of the draw...

...which wouldn't normally be great news for Casilli drawn widest in #8, but those races show that horses drawn higher than stall 7 have done pretty well too...

Our stats for these races say that pace is more of a deal breaker than the draw, though, with a clear sign that those willing to set the fractions ultimately get rewarded...

Prominent runners do better than average too, but any further back in the field makes life difficult, which won't be good news for the likes of Casilli if her last four runs are anything to go by...

However, here lies a problem, because they can't all run to a pace score of 2.50 or lower, one (or more) of them will have to set the tempo of the race and if they go at a dawdle, then those most used to coming from off the pace might well be the ones to side with.

Summary

The draw stats didn't really give me much help, whilst the pace data suggests the possibility of a falsely run race. However, I can see why Westernesse is the current 5/2 favourite. He does tend to race up with the pace (ignore LTO, he stumbled out of the stalls and was awkwardly away), he's got a good low draw and has eight top three finishes on the bounce.

Do I want to back him at 5/2?  Not really, even though he's the likeliest winner in my eyes. To be honest, I'd want him to be a point (or more!) longer in the market, so I'll leave him alone. That, of course, doesn't mean that you have to. Bobby's Blessing is next best at a high of 7/2 and that also seems a bit skinny for a horse with just two runs under his belt and now up in trip by 2.5 furlongs, so I'll skip him too in favour of an 11/1 E/W bet with Skybet (10's elsewhere) on The Shortlist horse Casilli. Yeah, she's not in prime form, but her draw is fine, her hold-up approach might not be horrific in a pace-less contest and she's best suited by conditions. She was a little more than two lengths outside the placings here over course and distance last time out, but is now 2lbs and 1 class lower here and might well be the value option.

Racing Insights, Saturday 24/06/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated qualifiers as follows...

30-day form

1-year form

5-year course form

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.42 Perth
  • 2.17 Perth
  • 3.17 Newmarket
  • 3.34 Ayr
  • 4.20 Ascot
  • 8.00 Limerick

Clearly the best of the TJC report / free races has to be the Hardwicke Stakes, so my last column of the week will focus upon the 4.20 Ascot, an 8-runner, Group 2 flat contest for horses aged 4 and over. It's worth over £140k to the winner, who'll tackle a right handed 1m4 on good to firm ground...

I suspect that Hukum will be fairly short here and that the market will also like Frankie's mount, Free Wind, but that might opn up a nice E/W option for us even if I end up with those two as my first picks from a field in which only Ardakan, Changingoftheguard and Deauville Legend failed to win last time out.

All of them raced at Class 1 last time around and Ardakan wears first-time cheekpieces on his UK debut. He has yet to win over this course or trip, but he's not alone, as West Wind Blows also fits that description. Deauville Legend, Grand Alliance and Free Wind have already won over this trip elsewhere, whilst Changingoftheguard, Hukum and Pyledriver have all won Class 1 races over course and distance with the latter's triumph in last year's King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes the pick.

That said, this race might just be a pipe-opener for Pyledrive to attempt to retain that crown, as he hasn't raced since that win 336 days ago and he might well need the run. Mind you, he was the runner-up in last year's Coronation Cup (behind Hukum) after another long absence. Deauville Legend hasn't raced since last November's Melbourne Cup, so he might be rusty too but the remainder have all raced this season.

Pyledriver is best off at the weights here, as he's rated 2lbs higher than Hukum with Free Wind next best. She's the only female in the race and her 3lbs weight allowance bring her to within 6lbs of Pyledriver. Worst off looks like Grand Alliance, rated some 18lbs worse than Pyledriver.

As you'd expect for a race of this magnitude, most of the field have already performed well in similar past contests and we can see this via Instant Expert...

Ardakan has no UK form, of course, but his overseas form doesn't suggest he'd be likely to win here and with Grand Alliance's numbers clearly the worst above, I'm ready to eliminate him from my enquiries too, leaving me with six to consider. Grand Alliance is drawn in stall 2 and our draw stats suggest that his low draw would also have counted against him here...

...with stalls 4 to 7 producing the most winners...

...although the place stats for stalls 8 & 9 will give hope to widest drawn Free Wind, who likes to race quite prominently tracking the leaders, but she's unlikely to lead here, as the likes of Changingoftheguard, Pyledriver and West Wind Blows are likely to battle it out early on if recent outings are anything to go by...

What is apparent here is that aside from mid-division runners faring really badly, horses van win from any draw and with any running style, as reflected in the pace/draw heatmap...

...which applied to our field looks like this...

It's always dangerous to rule out an A P O'Brien horse ridden by Ryan Moore, but I fear that Changingofthe guard might well do too much early if he has company/competition for the lead and on that basis, I'm ruling him out here and he did fade away last time out. I've already decided against Grand Alliance and Ardakan, of course and I think Deauville Legend might struggle too, especially based on the pace/draw stats.

Summary

I've eliminated four of the eight runners so far, leaving myself with Hukum, Pyledriver, West Wind Blows and Free Wind. West Wind Blows is arguably the weakest of the four, having not won higher than Listed company, but if one of the other trio fails to fire, you could have yourself a nice E/W bet at 20/1.

Of that trio, I don't think there's that much between them, but this is probably a warm-up event for Pyledriver and at current odds of 15/2, it'd just be a small E/W bet, leaving me to pick between the 2/1 fav Hukum and Frankie's 5/2 Free Wind. There's surely very little between them and they're both in good nick, but the way Frankie is riding right now, I'd have to just about side with Free Wind.

Racing Insights, Friday 23/06/23

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Apologies for a lack of a column from me yesterday, I was ultimately defeated by technology, logistics and time.

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have, sadly, produced no qualifiers, but our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 4.20 Ascot
  • 4.45 Redcar
  • 6.40 Musselburgh
  • 7.05 Newmarket
  • 7.10 Down Royal
  • 7.45 Down Royal

...from which the first on the list is clearly the pick, but Matt's team of assembled experts are previewing elsewhere on the site, so this humble little column will turn its attention to Flat Racing HQ for the 7.05 Newmarket, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good/good to firm ground...

Top weight Greysful Storm and the fast finishing Never Ending both won last time out, but the former does now step up a class, as do Golspie and The Jackler, whilst bottom weight Golden Maverick is up two classes.

We've quite a few that are unxposed in handicaps with this being a handicap debut for Golspie, Never Ending and The Jackler, whilst it's only Feud's second attempt.

He's also been off the track the longest, but a 7-week break shouldn't be the reason he can't win here and the rest of the field have all had near enough a fortnight or more to recover from their last run.

The top two on the card are the only ones to have won at this trip and none of the nine have won here before, as shown on Instant Expert, which also shows 3 winners on similar ground conditions and four Class 4 winners...

There's not much data there for us to build up a clear enough picture, so we should switch to the place stats...

...which lead me to suggest that Feud, The Jackler and Golden Maverick won't be featuring much in my thoughts from this point forward. Removing those three from the equation also takes away the two widest drawn runners, which might not be a bad thing based on these draw stats...

...that point to the first four stalls being the preferred place to run from...

...which would be good news for Mighty River, Never Ending and Golspie who occupy the first three stalls. The pace stats for those same races then go on to say that the chances of winning this race increase the further forward a horse runs and that those racing prominently actually make the frame slightly more often than leaders. Based on the field's last few runs...

...I'd expect Mighty River to be bang up with the pace as he shoots out of stall 1 and this pace/draw combination represents the best chance for horses to win here...

Summary

Low draw and fast starts are the order of the day here and that's Mighty River. He's in good nick (2nd over this trip on the Rowley LTO) and has won at the trip, so he'd be the one to beat for me. If he does get out quickly, I suspect he might well drag Never Ending along with him, whilst further down the draw order, the in-form Island Star could very well have something to say in the outcome.

No odds available at 3.10pm on Thursday, so I'll revisit later when I check the price of possible E/W runner John Chard VC who has led in a couple of his last four outings.

Mighty River and John Chard VC opened up at 7/1 and 12/1 respectively, which were decent enough prices IMO.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 21/06/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.10 Worcester
  • 5.35 Ascot
  • 6.25 Wexford
  • 6.35 Ripon
  • 8.28 Wexford

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

Adrian Keatley's horses have had a good month winning 7 of 16 handicaps and he has two runners at Ripon, where he has had 5 winners and 4 furthers placers from 13 handicap runs in the last year. One of those two runners, Dungart Glory, runs in one of our daily 'free' races, so it makes sense (to me, at least!) to tie the daily free feature in with the free race list and take a look at the 6.35 Ripon, an 8-runner (fingers crossed it stays that way), Class 5, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a righthanded 1m2f on good ground that will be quicker in places...

There's not much recent winning form amongst this group with only Gareeb's win three starts ago and Emily's Eclipse's win four races ago the only successes in the field's last five outings. Anjo Bonita, however, might well be an 8-race maiden but she has made the first three home in each of her last seven outings. Khinjani has placed in her last three and Bloomwithgrace came within three quarters of a length of breaking her own duck last time out.

That narrow defeat for Bloomwithgrace was at the class above this race, so she could benefit from the drop, as might Anjo Bonita, whilst Gareeb was last seen at Class 3, although she was last home of eleven some 21 lengths adrift.

The three 'form' horses, Bloomwithgrace, Khinjani and Anjo Bonita are all unexposed in handicap company, as the latter makes a hcp debut here and it's just the second crack for the other pair. Elsewhere, Emily's Eclips wears first-time cheekpieces, whilst it's just the second run in a visor for Kittykarma.

Our featured horse, Dungar Glory, not only concedes weight all round, but has to contend with a layoff of over five months since she was last home of 8 at Wolverhampton in early January, whilst the vast majority of her rivals have all raced in the last month apart from Emily's Eclipse who might also need the run after an eleven week break.

Dungar Glory is, however, the only one of the eight to have previously won here at Ripon, having scored over a mile back in August 2022 and none of the field have won at today's trip. Mind you, the field only share four wins between them with Dungar Glory successful at 7f and a mile, Emily's Eclipse scored over 7½f and Gareeb's win three starts/two months ago was also over a mile, albeit on Southwell's tapeta.

The fact that the field are a combined 4 from 64 (6.25% SR), we're probably better switching straight to the place stats on Instant Expert, as they have at least made the frame in 29 (45.3%) of those 64 outings...

...where the ones catching the eye most are...

...with those drawn at either end (Emily's Eclipse & Dungar Glory) looking the weakest of that half dozen. I've only omitted crossed off the runners in stalls 1 and 5 so far, so the full draw stats for similar contests might help us narrow the field down further, as our Draw Analyser suggests those drawn more centrally have fared the best...

...but with the ground being quicker in places and the horses having 10 furlongs to undo the effect of the draw, it might well be running styles/tactics that decide this one and our Pace Analyser is pretty clear cut on this...

Those up with the pace win 2.25 times more often than those in mid-division or further back and leaders are easily best placed to make the frame. That's not to say you can't win/place from off the pace here, but based on the field's recent outings...

...you'd want to be more Anjo Bonita than Emily's Escape, I'd guess.

Summary

Anjo Bonita has been knocking on the door (3222322) for about eight months now and a drop in class will help her here. She's not badly treated at the weights for her handicap debut and she'd be the one I'd fancy from this group. She's the pace angle in the race and might well prove difficult to reel in. Bloomwithgrace is the one most likely to give chase and that should help her to make the frame, whilst the other form horse Khinjani has two prominent runs from her last three and could be the other placer here.

I had no prices to work with at 4.35pm on Tuesday, so any decision on bets would have to wait, but I'd be looking at Anjo Bonita to win here (5/1 or 11/2 would be nice, but I doubt I'll get it) ahead of Bloomwithgrace and/or Khinjani. I suspect that pair might even be shorter than Anjo, so I doubt there'll be an E/W play for me.

 

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 20/06/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...which, as you'd expect, is heavily Ascot-oriented. We do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.20 Thirsk
  • 2.55 Thirsk
  • 3.40 Ascot
  • 7.00 Brighton
  • 7.15 Beverley

The 3.40 Ascot is on the 'free' list and is the second richest race of the day. It also features three runners from The Shortlist, but at 19-runners, it's not for me, even if SkyBet are paying 6 places! Instead, I'll take the last of the 'free' races, a decent standard sprint at one of my favourite tracks; the 7.15 Beverley is an 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good ground and here's how they'll line up for the "Beverley Speedy Handicap"...

No LTO winners here, but top weight Hiya Maite was third after winning his penultimate race, whilst Embour, California Gem and Manila Scouse have all won inside five runs and Embour is denoted as a fast finsher, ideal for this kind of contest! Only Spring Is Sprung and Ventura Flame are winless in seven (8 & 13 respectively if anyone's counting). All eight have at least one 5f win under thier belts and both California Gem and bottom weight Ventura Flame are former course and distance winners.

Only half of the field ran at Class 3 last time out; Spring Is Sprung was 4th of 14 at Class 2, beaten by a length at 33/1, whilst Manila Scouse (3rd of 7), Dandy Dinmont (5th of 9) and Ventura Flame (5th of 17 over C&D) all step up from Class 4 and it's hard to see any of that trio improving for a step up. Most of them do have the benefit of a recent run; half a dozen have raced in the last month, Calfornia Gem was seen six weeks ago, but Embour hasn't raced for nearly 16 weeks now and might well need the run.

Embour has, however, won three Class 2 contests on the Flat, according to Instant Expert, whilst under today's conditions, we see that he's the only previous Class 3 winner too. Just four of the field have won on good ground and in what looks a fairly modest set of numbers, California Gem probably makes most appeal...

Embour looks weak across the board, but is now 8lbs lower than his last win. Devil's Angel's numbers are steady, aside from being a Class 4 horse, Dandy Dinmont hasn't shone over the minimum trip and has fared little better (1 from 6) at 6f and is still 7lbs higher than his last win, whilst Ventura Flame has a good record on good to firm ground and also on soft/heayy, but has shown very little in between the two extremes! I'll consult the place stats, in case any of these have been 'unlucky' in their defeats...

...which does, in fairness, put some of these in a better light, but Spring Is Sprung isn't great over 5f and Ventura Flame still hasn't performed on good ground, but several of these are still in it, as we turn to draw and pace, where I suspect the emphasis will be on the latter over a straight 5f! Now, I wouldn't normally expect the draw to have too much of an influence over a straight five, but stalls 1 and 2 have done better than par here...

...albeit off a fairly small sample size. The 'perceived' (I remain to be persuaded) bias is less pronounced when it comes to making the frame, though and that data is possibly more reliable. I am, however, pretty confident that those races used for the draw data will tell me that the "Speedy Handicap" is likely to be won by a front runner, but I'm not always right, so let's check...

...and I think that's fairly conclusive. Leaders win most often, they place most often and they convert the highest percentage of places into wins, so we want a horse that'll be sharply away and based on the field's most recent efforts...

...the consistent Hiya Maite looks like he might well try to win this from the front. Embour was, of course, noted on the card as a fast finisher, but you'd have to be from where's he's going to be halfway!

Summary

Easy call for me here, as I'm with Hiya Maite. He's in good consistent (3 wins and 4 places from his last 8) form, runs off the same mark as a narrow defeat over 6f LTO when headed late on and looks like grabbing an easy lead here. he could prove difficult to peg back and at 7/2, there could still be a bit of value in the price.

As for the places, I don't like Embour, Dandy Dinmont nor Devil's Angel, but any two from the other four could get in here. None will be at what I'd want for an E/W bet, so I won't be backing them, but if pushed for one for the forecast etc, recent C&D winner Ventura Flame receives weight all round and might be the answer.

Racing Insights, Monday 19/06/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 3.20 Carlisle
  • 5.00 Lingfield
  • 5.10 Kilbeggan
  • 6.35 Windsor
  • 7.43 Kilbeggan

And as PACE is the free feature, let's tackle a sprint in the 5.00 Lingfield, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo A/W handicap over a left-handed 5f on standard polytrack...

Spirit of Breeze and Sabah Al Ward are still maidens after five and four attempts respectively and neither have even made the frame and I don't see that changing here. The rest of the field have all won at least one of their last five outings with Alpine Goal the sole LTO winner.

That was here over course and distance (Diomed Spirit has also won over C&D) less than a fortnight ago and she now steps up one class (as does Cuban Grey) and she is denoted as being a fast finisher. Destiny's Spirit and Cuban Grey are also both former winners over this trip.

Most of the field have raced in the last six weeks, but Diomed Spirit may need the run after a run of poor form last season was halted by a six months absence and he might well need the run and he's probably carrying too weight here.

Elsewhere, Sabah Al Ward runs in a handciap for the just the second time and now wears a hood for the first time as well as a first time in a tongue tie. Spirit of Breeze also makes a debut in a tongue-tie.

I already think that this race is beyond the two maidens and Diomed Spirit's long layoff after some poor runs makes me uncomfortable, so I'm only really interested in these runners on Instant Expert...

...where Cuban Grey looks like one to be swerved! His stats on standard going and over this trip are particularly awful and he's going to sent packing from my analysis, unless he's just been unluvky and has made the frame regularly...

The numbers are admittedly better, but he's still the worst of the four and has to say goodbye, leaving us with runners in stalls 3, 4 & 6, but over the last 100 or so races over this course and distance, there doesn't seem to be any discernible advantage to being in a certain stall...

...although stall 3's stats are the best, but I think not anomalous and unreliable, whereas feature of the day, the PACE angle, is a totally different matter...

...where the data suggests the further forward you race, the better chance of winning/placing, suiting Skallywag Bay best of all, if the field's most recent efforts are anything to go by...

Summary

The three horses I've left in to the PACE analysis are the three I'd want to be with. Destiny's Spirit looks the outlier here and least likely to win, but at 16/1 with Skybet paying three places must be worth a small E/W punt.

As for the other pair, they're the market leaders and I know the pace says Skallywag Bay should make all and win, I just think that Alpine Girl's C&D win last time out might just edge it for her here. Either way Alpine Girl at 9/4 and Skallywag Bay at 7/2 would be my two for the reverse forecast/exacta.

Racing Insights, Saturday 17/06/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated a stack of qualifiers for me to consider...

...in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.10 Chester
  • 3.05 York
  • 3.10 Hexham
  • 3.45 Hexham
  • 4.20 Hexham
  • 5.55 Leicester

Now, two of our free races from Hexham also contain runners from my TJC qualifiers, but the free list has a Class 1 race that it would be rude to ignore, so we're going back to the Knavesmire (where my 1-2-3 finished 3-1-2 for a £170 trifecta and I'd a couple of E/W successes) for a tilt at the Listed Grand Cup Stakes. Your cards have it as the 3.05 York, a 7-runner flat contest for horses aged 4 and over who will tackle the left-handed mile and three quarters on good to firm ground...

The bookies seem to think it's a two-horse race here between Israr and Quickthorn with Roberto Escobarr not quite as good as them, but much better than the rest...

...they might well be right, of course, but (a) that's not always the case and (b) we might still find something here...

ROBERTO ESCOBARR has 3 wins and 2 further places from ten starts on the Flat and landed this very race two years ago. His best result to date is a Group 3 win on his last outing, but that means he now concedes 5lbs to the boys and 10lbs to the girls here, making life tough.

ISRAR has 3 wins and 3 places from 9 and was narrowly beaten in a Newbury Group 3 last time out, when headed on the line in the Aston Park stakes four weeks ago. There was no disgrace in getting caught by a typical flying Frankie Dettori finish after a 196-day layoff and he should strip fitter here slightly down in grade.

OUTBOX is a useful Class 2 (or lower) handicapper, but a win and two places from 14 efforts at class1 speaks for itself, as does a current losing streak of eleven races stretching back a week shy of two years.

QUICKTHORN stays all day, as shown when he landed the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup here in August of last year, finishing 14 lengths clear after racing 2m½f. He hasn't quite hit those heights since, but was only three lengths down over course and distance in the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup last month, despite being hampered late on and coming off a 31-week absence. Like Israr, should come on for the run and also down further in grade.

RHYTHMIC INTENT has won just 4 of 29 so far and was only 4th of 8 at Ascot last time out. Admittedly he wasn't beaten by far, but that was a Class 3 handicap, he's winless in six and now makes a Class 1 debut. Surely he's only here to try and beat a couple for some prize money or to keep stable mate Quinault (runs in the 3.45 race) company in the van.

CHING SHIH gets a 5lb allowance as one of two 4yo fillies in the race and she won a Class 4 Novice event on her second outing way back in October 2021. Only four races since then, all at Class 1 (a Gr 3 followed by 3 x Listed) and she's never looked like winning although she did stay on well last time out when upped in trip to 1m4f, finishing 3rd of 9 and might (I did say might) actually benefit from another two furlongs here (siblings are 12 from 87 over 1m5f to 1m7f on the Flat over the last three seasons), but not one you'd expect to be winning here.

DIVINE JEWEL is like, most Frankel offspring, useful and consistent. She hasn't been out of the first three home in any of her six starts so far (232122), but that's all at Classes 4 & 5 (C5 for the sole win) and you've got to expect this to be far too tough. I'd say she's the worst of the bunch, but her 5lb weight allowance might drag her into the pack.

At this point, I'd be inclined to agree with the bookies about it being a two-horse race, but let's see if Instant Expert can give us a way in...

...where the favourites don't actually stand out too much. Israr lacks relevant experience and Quickthorn has just about done enough to avoid being in the red and it's top weight Roberto Escobarr who looks best suited if it wasn't for the weight penalty for his LTO success, whilst the place stats make all of them look better apart from poor Ching Shih...

As a statistician, I struggle with the concept of arguing against proven data, but sometimes (rarely), I have to ask myself to check twice and this is one of those occasions. Check out the draw data for races here at York over 1m4f and beyond on good to firm ground...

Surely there can't be that much of an advantage in being drawn highest in a small field over such long races? Yet even the stall-by-stall analysis says there is...

...suggesting that three of the outsiders, Ching Shih, Rhythmic Intent and Outbox might have some form of advantage here. This might sound dangerous/controversial, but I'm exercising my own judgement/interpretation here and I'm ignoring that data, because even if that trio are helped by the draw, I don't think they're good enough to make full use of it! Personally, I think race tactics (ie pace) and actually class/ability will come to the forefront here.

Regarding pace, those 38 races above don't really show a pace bias either (wow, I'm not getting much help from the data today!), aside from saying that racing just behind the leader(s) haven't fared as well as other running styles, which based on the following...

...might put Israr at a disadvantage behind Quickthorn.

Summary

Sadly, at this point I'm going to tell you what you probably already know from my opening gambit that...it's a two-horse race here between Israr and Quickthorn with Roberto Escobarr not quite as good as them, but much better than the rest...and that's about the sum of it. Of the favs, I prefer the 15/8 Quickthorn over the 7/4 Israr, but it's not a race I'd want to throw much money at.

Roberto should grab third, unless the weight gets to him and with Ching Shih carrying some 10lbs less, she might be the one who comes from the back to challenge him. That said, we're only getting paid on two places here, so maybe it's a "grab a brew and put your feet up" kind of race after all.

Have a great weekend everyone and Happy Fathers Day to all of you dads.

Racing Insights, Friday 16/06/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded just one 'possible'...

...but I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 York
  • 6.10 Fontwell
  • 6.15 Fairyhouse
  • 6.35 Cork
  • 7.45 Cork
  • 7.50 Goodwood

...and we'll head to the Knavesmire for the first from the 'free' list, the 1.50 York, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap for apprentice jockeys. The trip is a left-handed 1m2½f on good to firm ground, that will be a little slower in places and here's how they'll line up...

Steady improver Westernesse was a winner last time out, as were Menelaus and Showmedemoney, but Jean Baptiste, Aqwaam, Highwaygrey and Poet's Dawn are winless in 10, 6, 7 & 5 races respectively.

Plenty of class movers here, as only Pledge of Honour & raced at Class 4 LTO. Highwaygrey drops down two classes here, whilst Jean Baptiste, Solanna & Poet's Dream are all down 1. Our trio of LTO winners, Westernesse, Menelaus & Showmedemoney are all up a level, as is bottom weight Dougies Dream despite three poor efforts at Class 5 in the last couple of months.

Menelaus wears a visor for the first time today and we should have no rustiness issues here, with all ten having raced in the last five weeks, with Menelaus seen most recently when winning at Thirsk 11 days ago, getting off the mark at the tenth time of asking.

That win was over a mile, so he's one of just four (inc Westernesse, Aqwaam & Dougies Dream) yet to win over a similar trip to this one, whilst Poet's Dawn is the only previous York winner, albeit over 1m1f three years ago!

That win is shown below on a fairly sad-looking Instant Expert graphic that contains many warning bells...

...and those warnings are..

  • GOING - Jean Baptiste & Poet's Dawn
  • CLASS - Pledge of Honour & Aqwaam (note that Jean Baptiste has won a Class 2 and that Pledge of Honour, Highwaygrey & Poet's Dream have won at Class 3)
  • COURSE - Despite his win here, Poet's Dawn is just 1 from 14 at this venue and that's not good enough
  • DISTANCE - Jean Baptiste & Poet's Dawn
  • WEIGHT - Solanna is 10lbs higher than his win two starts ago and 15lbs higher than his win three starts ago, but he is down in class and by 2lbs from LTO.

Based on everything to this point, I going to omit Jean Baptiste, Poet's Dawn and Dougies Dream before I even look at the field's place stats...

...where Aqwaam looks weak at Class 4 and Highwaygrey looks a steady performer, but there's nothing here that says back or dismiss to any of them yet.

Our Draw Analyser says that past similar races ie

...don't actually show a massive draw bias and they really shouldn't over 10.5 furlongs if truth be told, but stalls 3 & 7 have fared (abnormally?) well...

...so that might offer a little encouragement to the likes of Solanna and Aqwaam, whilst running those 80 races above through our Pace Analyser, it would seem that the best approach here would be to get tucked in behind the leader(s) in a prominent position...

Hold-up types fare next best to prominent runners, but leaders have struggled to see the job out to a satisfactory conclusion, which might not bode well for likely front-runner Showmedemoney...

...whilst Highwaygrey and Pledge of Honour would appear to be the ones being waited with.

Summary

The one ticking most boxes for me so far is Westernesse, whose form of 2223231 over the last year has shown steady improvement, culminating in a first win at Pontefract recently. the way he stayed on that day suggests that the extra furlong or so here should be right up his street and although he's the early (only bet365 were open at 4.15) 3/1 favourite, he should be the one to beat here, especially as the second and third from his win have both won at Class 4 since and although he's up 3lbs, his jockey Mark Winn (in decent nick too at 7 from 24 over the last fortnight) takes the same amount off, so it's Westernesse for me today.

As for the placers, you can make a case for most of  the six of them and I think Menelaus is probably the 'best of the rest' and handy for forecast purposes, but definitely too short for me to go E/W at 7/2! E/W options for me here would probably end up being runners like Pledge of Honour and/or Highwaygrey at 9's and 12's respectively.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 15/06/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.20 Newbury
  • 2.50 Newbury
  • 4.30 Newbury
  • 5.10 Yarmouth
  • 5.50 Worcester
  • 7.40 Haydock

...from which, we'll look at the 4.30 Newbury, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good ground...

Only Shobiz won last time out and since making the frame without winning his first five races, has now won three from seven. Dakota Power, Treacherous, Sarah's Verse & Strike also have at least one win in their recent form-line.  Shobiz also benefits from a drop in class here, as do American Star, Capote's Dream and Treacherous, whilst Magnificence, Sarah's Verse and Strike are all up one class. Dakota Power actually drops two classes for his handicap debut some 558 days after his last outing when last home of three at Wolverhampton, making this also his turf debut!

Elsewhere Capote's Dream adds a first-time tongue to go with his cheekpieces, American Star wears blinkers for the second time and it's a third run in cheekpieces for Magnificence, who is the only one in the field yet to win at this type of trip. American Star has won here over 7f, whilst Shobiz won over course and distance last time out.

All bar the returning Dakota Power have raced in the last two months with Magnificence having ran as recently as last Friday, when a half length runner-up at Haydock. He goes off the same mark here, which according to Instant Expert is 3lbs higher than his last win and the weights show three runners well below their last winning marks...

I've left the above as Flat and A/W just to show turf debutant Dakota Power's decent A/W stats, but when we look at just Flat records...

...the ones of immediate interest would be American Star, Shobiz, Capote's Dream and Sarah's Verse in card order. Jack's Point hasn't fared well at this trip with 1 win from 9, but he is only 1 from 26 on the Flat overall, so he'd not be one to hang your hat on anyway. Elsewhere, there are no real alarms ringing and there's not much above to cause me to discard any others just yet.

In terms of draw stats, the bare data suggest those drawn lowest would have the upper hand...

...but there really should be too much of a draw bias over a straight 6f here and the PRB data suggests a more even spread of results...

There is a slight drop off for stall 10 in the 10-runner races, but otherwise, there's not a great deal of difference between 'best' and 'worst' stalls 2 and 9, which then suggests that as with many straight sixes on decent ground, it'll all be about pace but those races used above for the draw data aren't entirely conclusive, but you don't want to be backing a hold-up horse if you've ideas about winning here...

Leaders tend to hang on for a place, but only 29.2% of those making the frame go on to win and it's a similar return for prominent running placers, but almost 70% of those making the frame from mid-division go on to win, whilst again hold-up horses fare poorly. Based on how this field have approached their most recent outings...

...you'd have concerns about Treacherous, Capote's Dream and Sarah's Verse trying to make up ground in what might well be a falsely-run race. American Star and Dakota Power might be the ones to take it on, whilst it could well be Shobiz, Strike and Magnificence in that prized mid-division position.

Summary

From above, the positives... Shobiz won last time out; Dakota Power, Treacherous, Sarah's Verse & Strike all have a fairly recent win on their form lines. Shobiz drops in class here, as do American Star, Capote's Dream and Treacherous. American Star is a course winner over 7 and Shobiz has own over track and trip. Shobiz, Strike and Magnificence might get an advantage racing in mid-division.

The negatives... American Star, Capote's Dream, Jack's Point and Magnificence are without a recent win. Dakota Power hasn't raced on turf before and hasn't raced for a very longtime. Magnificence, Sarah's Verse and Strike are all up one class and the former is the only one without a win at this trip, whilst Jack's Point has a really poor Flat record. Treacherous, Capote's Dream and Sarah's Verse look like struggling from a hold-up position.

And from all that, Shobiz is the one whose positives far outweigh any possible negatives, which would explain why he's the early 5/4 favourite. I'm not really a fan of backing horses at that kind of price, but he really should be winning this quite cosily. Second favourite Magnificence ran well last week off today's mark, but is up in class and has been out of sorts for a long time.

Only three horses, aside from Shobiz emerge from the analysis slightly in credit after taking the negatives from the positives and they are American Star, Treacherous and Strike. If i'm honest, I don't see of them really challenging the winner, but all have a shout of making the frame, if things fall their way, of course.

Treacherous is too short to go E/W at 11/2, but American Star (12/1) & Strike (14/1) might be worth a small punt here.