Tag Archive for: Tix Picks

Tix Picks, Saturday 14/12/24

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Saturday's racing comes from Cheltenham, Doncaster, Fairyhouse, Newcastle, Southwell & Wolverhampton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a huge £150,000 placepot guarantee at Cheltenham...

Things didn't exactly go to plan for me at Cheltenham on Friday, but my shortlists showed I was looking at the right horses, even if my final decision was a little off, so I'll head back to the good to soft ground at HQ undeterred for another crack starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.10...Quantock Hills was second on debut at Wetherby two months ago but won next/last time out by seven lengths at Fontwell. This, however is a big step up in quality and more will be needed here. Moutarde also steps up in class after a 7 length success on his last run after finishing a distant 4th of 10 here at Cheltenham on his UK debut in a similar race to this one.

Total Look was a winner on the Flat over 1m2½f at Roscommon in May, before a runner-up finish over 1m4f at the same venue in mid-October. He then made a hurdles debut at Navan four weeks ago, where he travelled strongly and jumped well to win by half a length. His ground speed could hold the key. Small Fry is also quick across the ground having finished 121122 in six efforts on the Flat since mid-July. he has since tackled hurdles twice but after finishing a reasonable third at Fontwell was last home of 5 beaten by 28 lengths at Sandown earlier this month.

Ambiente Amigo gets weight all round here and won on hurdling debut at the end of October before finishing third of ten in a Listed race last time out. More than useful on the Flat too, she could be going places.

In a tricky race to call (8) Ambiente Amigo would be my first choice ahead of (3) Moutarde and (4) Total Look. Moutarde was actually 28/1 with Bet365 on Friday evening and that looks a very tempting E/W play.

Leg 2 @ 12.40...Peaky Boy finished second and then first in two bumpers and is three from three over obstacles (2 x hrd & 1 x chs), all here at Cheltenham over 2m4½f. This trip will test him, but he always seems to have plenty in hand and the five-timer beckons. Transmission won his last hurdle race (over 3m1f) back in April and then was second here at Cheltenham over 3m½f on his chase debut October. He then stepped up a furlong this course and distance for his first win over fences four weeks ago and is only up 3lbs.

Haiti Couleurs won both of his last two over hurdles in the spring and would have own on chase debut at Chepstow in October but for a bad mistake at the last. He did, however, set the record straight with a 15 length success at Aintree five weeks ago and he's the one to beat here for me. Livin On Luco comes here off the back of a win at Newton Abbot when coming off a 207-day absence to make a debut over fences and a first handicap run.

I fancy (6) Haiti Couleurs to edge out (2) Peaky Boy here and I'll also take (9) Livin On Luco as the backup plan who might also be a nice E/W option at 25/1.

Leg 3 @ 1.13...Coco Mademoiselle was only beaten by a head on chase debut back in September, but ten lengths clear of Jesuitique back in fourth place who has since won a Class 2 handicap. Coco won her sole bumper prior to finishes of 212P12 over hurdles and this makes her my 'one to beat'. Autumn Return is two from three over fences so far but has had some fitness/injury issues this season. Was useful over hurdles, making the frame in 8 (4 wins) of 12 and if fit/ready could go well again here at a big price (22/1 E/W anyone?)

Realisation won over hurdles at Southwell this time last year but disappointed in two subsequent runs prior to a summer break, a wind op and a switch to fences that has seen her make the frame on both starts over fences, beaten by a length and a quarter first up and by a head last time out. Theonewedreamof was a winner over fences at Tipperary in July, but hasn't tackled a fence since and was well beaten on the Flat at Galway in August. Not one to write-off just yet, but I suspect she'll need the run here.

Bottom-weight Getbazoutofhere completes my shortlist and she seems to have come into her own over fences this year, finishing as runner-up at Exeter in April and winning at Hereford in may before a six month break. She then returned with another Hereford win and was a runner-up at Leicester 12 days ago and goes off the same mark here.

(2) Coco Mademoiselle is the one for me here and I think that (4) Autumn Return might defy the big odds, but I also can't ignore the form of (13) Getbazoutofhere, so they're my three for this one.

Leg 4 @ 1.50...Ga Law won the Paddy Power Gold Cup here in 2022 and was a runner-up in it four weeks ago for a third runner-up finish on the bounce (Gr2, C2 & C1) and was a course and distance winner here in a Class 1 handicap in late January. Le Patron was largely unimpressive on four starts over hurdles, but has been a revelation over fences in the last 14 months finishing 1114P1 with a 3 from 3 record in handicap chases including defying a 260-day break to win at Newbury a fortnight ago and he could have more to give.

Fugitif likes it here at HQ, making the frame in 4 of 8 starts including 1 win which came in this very race last year. He's 1lb lower than that run now and ran well on his comeback run recently. Il Ridoto beat Ga Law to land the Gold Cup here last month and seemed to have plenty in hand and he was only a short head behind Fugitif in this race last year; went very close in this contest last year, so this trio are fairly evenly matched.

The last one I've got noted is Gemirande who comes here off the back of a good seven lengths success at Ascot three weeks ago. He ran so well for a horse not seen for seven months that the assessor has thumped him with an 8lb rise and this new mark of 136 might just be beyond him.

A(nother) tough one to call here, with all five more than capable, but I'm going to go with the closely matched trio of (2) Ga Law, (4) Fugitif & (5) Il Ridoto.

Leg 5 @ 2.25...Six are set to run; I'll split the field in half and look at three runners...

(1) Master Chewy fell at Sandown a week ago and also fell here in a Grade 1 four starts ago, but has proven over the last fourteen months that when staying upright he always gives you a run for your money finishing 1221424, with a grade 2 win last Christmas in that line-up.

(2) Libberty Hunter might need the run after eight months off, but has finished 1123 in his four starts over the last twelve months, including a Class 3 win and a Class 1 runner-up here at Cheltenham

(5) Issar D'Airy probably has something to find on the two above, but was a good second of eight at Ascot in a Class 1 handicap in early November which shows that on his day he's very capable. he just needs more days like that!

I'll take all three to be sure!

Leg 6 @ 3.00...This race really ought to be all about Skyjack Hijack, who after finishing 7th of 11 on debut at Aintree just over a year ago has made the frame in all nine starts and has won each of his last six. He likes to set the tempo of the race, hurdles and a good change of pace and stays beyond 3m on heavy ground, so no stamina issues.

Of the challengers Clondaw General won an Irish PTP, was sold for £150k afterwards and then went on to win a 4-runner novice hurdle at Worcester in October. Has done nothing wrong so far, but this is much tougher. Jet Blue makes a UK debut after 14 races in France, winning four times up to 2m2f. Like many French imports, soft underfoot conditions don't pose a threat, but the trip might.

Western Knight has already proven to be better over hurdles than in bumpers, having won both efforts over obstacles so far, including getting home by a head over 2m6f in a Class 2 race last time out. he doesn't do things easily but is very game and will battle until the end.

(2) Skyjack Hijack has to be the pick here, but I'm also having (3) Western Knight and (5) Clondaw General in a belts and braces approach to the finale.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (8) Ambiente Amigo, (3) Moutarde & (4) Total Look

Leg 2: (6) Haiti Couleurs, (2) Peaky Boy & (9) Livin On Luco

Leg 3: (2) Coco Mademoiselle, (4) Autumn Return & (13) Getbazoutofhere

Leg 4: (2) Ga Law, (4) Fugitif & (5) Il Ridoto

Leg 5: (1) Master Chewy, (2) Libberty Hunter & (5) Issar D'Airy

Leg 6: (2) Skyjack Hijack, (3) Western Knight & (5) Clondaw General

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


I'm out of the house incredibly early on Saturday morning and therefore had to compile this late on Friday night, so fingers crossed for no withdrawals. 

Good Luck and have a great weekend,
Chris

Tix Picks, Friday 13/12/24

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Friday's racing comes from Bangor, Cheltenham, Cork, Doncaster, Dundalk & Southwell.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a bumper £100,000 placepot guarantee at Cheltenham...

The card at Cheltenham looks a tricky one, but with at least £100k up for grabs, we have to at least have a try. The going is expected to be good to soft for the card which begins with...

Leg 1 @ 12.10...Country Mile won his sole bumper and on his hurdling debut before a solid third behind a 7/4 favourite in a Grade 2 contest last time out. A mistake at the last contributed to a three-length defeat, but he was 17 lengths clear of the next horse. This is a big drop in class. Palacio steps up in class after being somewhat of a surprise winner (20/1) at Chepstow in October, where he made all on soft ground. This looks a tougher assignment.

Wingmen makes a UK debut after winning two of three bumpers and his sole run over hurdles, all in Ireland. He does like to get on with things, so I expect him to provide early company for Palacio who might then feel the heat. That's Nice won a 3m PTP back in February and a 2m3f hurdle contest at Warwick three weeks ago, so comes here defending her 100% record. She got a good ride last time out, winning more comfortably than 1.5 lengths might suggest and there's probably plenty more to come from her, especially as the runner-up won a Listed race last week and the third placed horse who was 21 lengths back has made the frame again.

That's Nice would be my pick to win here ahead of Country Mile with Wingmen preferred to Palacio, but to be safe, I'll only leave Palacio out.

Leg 2 @ 12.40...Ballymackie looks out of his depth here, but you could make a case for any/all of the other four starting with Springwell Bay who was a Class 2 winner and Grade 2 placer over hurdles and landed a Listed race at Chepstow in October on his chase debut. He didn't manage to see 3m1f out here at Cheltenham last time out, going off too hard, so the drop in trip might help. Money doesn't always guarantee success but connections bought Caldwell Potter for 740,000 Euro after he won a Grade 1 hurdle at Leopardstown last Christmas and then reappeared 340 days later to win comfortably on chase/yard/UK debut at Carlisle 12 days ago and for me, he's the one to beat.

Deafening Silence won over hurdles at Class 3 and also at Grade 2 last winter before a 351 day break from racing. He returned to action at Haydock three weeks ago and ran creditably in defeat on his chase bow, but this looks a tougher challenge. Jango Baie makes a chase debut today after finishing on the first two home in all five starts over hurdles. A winner at Class 3 and then Grade 1, he was then the runner-up in a Listed race, a Grade 2 and a big-field Class 1 handicap. He has stacks of potential, but hasn't publicly tackled a fence and hasn't been seen for eight months.

That said, I think he makes more appeal than Deafening Silence, whilst Springwell Bay might pose the biggest challenge to Caldwell Potter.

Leg 3 @ 1.15...Now we move from 4/5 runners to 15! My (in card order) shortlist starts with Valgrand who drops two classes for his handicap debut having won a Grade 2 race over course and distance in October and was a runner-up here over 2m5f last time out. The drop in trip will be appreciated. Willmount returns to action for the first time in almost a year since failing to justify favouritism in the Challow (Gr 1) at Newbury last December when pulled up three out. he makes a similar drop in class today and could well be involved if race ready, as he was 3 from 3 prior to that last run. To Chase A Dream has yet to finish outside the first two home in seven starts over hurdles, having been a runner-up in each of his first four and then winning his last three. Has had the benefit of two recent Class 3 handicap runs and should be in the mix again today, despite a 7lb penalty.

Tintintin won an 18-runner Class 3 handicap here over course and distance off just 4lbs lower back in April and followed that up with a good 3rd of 17 at Class 1 (Swinton) at Haydock in his season finale. He ran to a similar standard last time out, when 4th of 15 in the Class 1 Greatwood Handicap over course and distance four weeks ago too. Wreckless Eric completes the list off the back of a Class 3 handicap course and distance win four weeks ago. He fell when challenging 2 out at Wincanton on his seasonal reappearance in October but his overall record reads 211F1, having gone down by less than a length on debut. He's up 8lbs here though and that might slow his progress.

All five are more than capable of making the frame, but my preference would be Valgrand and To Chase A Dream with Tintintin possibly the best of the rest.

Leg 4 @ 1.50...My initial thoughts were that this might be two-horse shootout between Chianti Classico and King Turgeon and it appears that the bookies agree.

Chianti Classico is 112141 over fences, all at 3m+ with a Class 1 win at Ascot last time out on seasonal reappearance. He's up 5lbs for that, but was comfortable in victory and should be the one to beat today. King Turgeon has made the frame in 6 of 13 over fences, winning four times, but it has taken a while for him to get the hang of things on a regular basis, but has finished 2U11 in his last four, winning both of this season's starts. He is up in class here, though.

Ballygrifincottage is one of those 'there or thereabouts' types who always get mentioned in running but don't go on to win. It's now more than two years since he last won, but has a second, a third and a fourth within his last five outings, although he was a faller here at the fourth fence last time out and will probably be behind the two horses above and also Java Point who ran really well to finish second of eleven here over 3m1½f four weeks ago. That was his first run for seven months so he's entitled to come on for that effort, but he is up in class here.

Leg 5 @ 2.25...Shakem Up'arry was well beaten in the Topham last time out eight months ago and hasn't raced since, but did win twice over course and distance in his previous two runs, both in Class 1 handicaps, so he's down in class here and his yard is in great form with 11 placers (4 winners) from their last 13 runners. Shan Blue certainly isn't the Shan Blue of 2021/22 when a consistent Grade race competitor but does still tend to be in the mix if completing the race as a last seven form line reading 2PPP334 would testify. Not my idea of a winner here (winless in 12 races/4 years) but in with a shout of the places.

Numitor has won two of his last four Class 2 handicaps, including last time out at Wincanton on his return from a five-month break. He's only up 3lbs for his first visit to HQ and has every chance of going well again today, as does Copperhead who was only beaten a length and three quarters at Sandown five weeks ago having arrived there on the back of a hat-trick.

I think the above four are much of a muchness if truth be told and I suspect/hope they'll be battling for the minor place money behind bottom-weight Torn And Frayed who runs off the same mark as when a course and distance winner in a Grade 3 handicap here in January of 2002. Plenty of water has flowed under the bridge since then, of course, but has a comfortable winner at Warwick last time off 6lbs lower and a similar run should be enough.

It's Torn And Frayed for me here and of the other four, I'll think I'll take a bit of a punt on Shakem Up'arry's fitness and a return to form for Copperhead.

Leg 6 @ 3.00...And a nice 16-runner Cross Country Chase to round things off!

Delta Work was the winner of the Cross Country race at the Cheltenham festival in both 2022 and 2023 but bypassed it this year for a crack at the Grand National, where he was a gallant runner-up off just 2lbs lower than today. Stumptown comes here on a hat-trick and has won three times and finished third once in six starts this year. He ahs won over fences and also in the cross country at Punchestown and is probably my one to beat.

Latenightpass won this race last year off 4lbs lower, so is of obvious interest even if his recent results aren't as good as his connections would have hoped for. He was 12th in the Grand National, having gone well for long periods until headed at the last and will prefer this trip. Arizona Cardinal started the year with three straight wins, culminating in the Class 1 Topham at Aintree in April. He probably needed the run at Chepstow recently and has had a third wind op since that run two months ago, which is a bit of a worry.

Mister Coffey might be a strange one to conclude my shortlist, as he's still a 14-race maiden over fences. In fairness, though, we're looking for placers and he has made the frame in 8 of those 14 defeats and was a runner over this course and distance last time out, despite coming off a nine-month break. He always gives his best, as shown by a 1/1 record in bumpers and making the frame in 5 of 6 over hurdles.

With a 67% place strike rate from 21 career races, Mister Coffey is an ideal placepot pick behind Stumptown, whilst of the others, I might just take a chance on top weight Delta Work.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (4) That's Nice, (1) Country Mile & (3) Wingmen

Leg 2: (2) Caldwell Potter, (1) Springwell Bay & (5) Jango Baie

Leg 3: (1) Valgrand, (6) To Chase A Dream & (8) Tintintin

Leg 4: (1) Chianti Classico, (5) King Turgeon & (6) Java Point

Leg 5: (10) Torn And Frayed, (3) Shakem Up'arry & (9) Copperhead

Leg 6: (4) Stumptown, (12) Mister Coffey & (1) Delta Work

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck, everyone!
Chris

Tix Picks, Thursday 12/12/24

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Thursday's racing comes from Chelmsford, Newcastle, Taunton & Warwick.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Chelmsford...

...and sticking with the NH (for now), let's head to Warwick for six races on good to soft ground beginning with...

Leg 1 @ 11.55...Character Testing was a faller at the last three weeks ago, but had finished 332 in his three other efforts over hurdles, the last of which was a defeat by just a neck over course and distance. El Gavilan makes a UK and yard debut here after coming over from France, where he's a half-brother to several Flat winners. He was a runner-up on his French debut at Lyon and might be a surprise package here.

Lion Hill hasn't set the world alight in two bumpers so far, but his yard/jockey are in good form...

...and he might be a different proposition over hurdles. Clear Storm finished in mid-division on hurdles debut at Ludlow in October and was deemed good enough for a Listed race last time out, even if she was pulled up before the penultimate flight. She was useful on the flat (63315236) and should be quick enough between the hurdles if her jumping stands up and I'll think I'll take a chance on here here with El Gavilan missing out from my shortlist.

Leg 2 @ 12.25...As The Fella Says finished 241 in three Irish PTP races before selling for £60k and you can never write off the chances of the Henderson/de Boinville partnership. Check The Score has already won a 3m PTP and a 2m bumper on his debut under Rules so has some ability but was a well beaten (50L!) third of five over hurdles at Exeter recently.

I'm A Lumberjack made the frame in three of five bumpers and returned from a seven month break to be a runner-up beaten by just a short head on his hurdles debut last month. Beorma hasn't shown a great deal so far and if I'm honest, he's only on my shortlist because he represents the Skeltons in a fairly poor race.

Wednesday Addams improved in three PTPs finishing P21 and has been a runner-up in two of five over hurdles so far and has recently had a wind op. I think I'll take a chance on him as backup to As The Fella Says who should be the main threat to likely winner I'm A Lumberjack.

Leg 3 @ 12.55...Aviation was beaten by less than three lengths on debut in a Market Rasen bumper in May and made a hurdle debut here last month some six months later, but managed to finish third of sixteen over 2m. He was outpaced, though and should relish the extra 5f here. Bear Market won a Class 3 bumper on debut at Aintree in May, having won a PTP bumper at Bangor a couple of months earlier, In good hands here and his breeding suggests he'll stay the 2m5f.

Jaccours had finished fourth in each of three starts over 2m½f-2m1½f, but looked a better prospect stepped up to 2m4f last time out, when the runner-up of fifteen at Ffos Las a month ago where first and third have gone on to make the frame again, whilst the fifth and seventh have both won. Jafimgoso showed some promise in bumpers finishing 912, but hasn't really progressed over hurdles yet and was 15th of 16 here last time out in the race where Aviation was third. He's probably better than that, but Aviation holds him here and he'll be the one to miss out for me.

Leg 4 @ 1.25...Skycutter made the frame in five of ten hurdle races, winning three times and has been the runner-up in both starts over fences, beaten by a length and a half or less on both occasions. Onethreefivenotout is one of those you need to catch on a good day. He won his sole bumper and has a win and two narrow runner-up defeats from six over hurdles, but his other three runs saw him pulled up when tailed off, a 39 length defeat as 9th of 10 and he was last home of 9 when last seen some 45 lengths down at Newbury in March. has ability, but is inconsistent and makes a chase debut after nearly nine months off.

Damarta was a reasonable fourth of seven on chase debut at Chepstow in October off the back of a six-month break having finished 33132 in his last five over hurdles, whilst Lucky Lugger has already been shown to be a better chaser than he was a hurdler with two runner-up finishes at Chepstow last month and not beaten by far in either. I suspect a similar fate awaits him here as he looks to be next best behind Skycutter, whilst I'd prefer Damarta over Onethreefivenotout if I wanted to take three runners.

Leg 5 @ 1.55...Cherie d'Am failed to finish out of the first three home in six starts (112123) and was second at Gr2 and third at Gr1 over hurdles last season. She might well have needed the run after 195-day absence when last home of three on chase debut at Carlisle in October, but was still less than two lengths adrift at the post. Smiling Getaway had two wins and a place from four over hurdles and was a winner at Ffos Las on chase debut in October. Lightly raced (6 starts) for a 7yo, she could have plenty in reserve.

Telepathique also won on chase debut, winning by some eleven lengths at Fakenham at the end of October, despite not having raced for eleven months following a hurdles win at Southwell. he then went on to complete a 358-day hat-trick to win here over 2m½f three weeks ago. This looks a more difficult prospect, but there's no denying her form, but the 'class' horse in the field has to be You Wear It Well, who made the frame in 7 of 11 over hurdles, winning five times including landing a Listed race and a pair of Grade 2 contests. She was a runner-up in a Listed contest on chase debut at Bangor a month ago, defying an 8 month break and I'd expect her to improve again here and take this comfortably ahead of Telepathique and possibly Cherie d'Am, although Smiling Getwaway will be very attractively priced for E/W bettors at 16/1 or bigger.

Leg 6 @ 2.25...Montecam returns to the smaller hurdles where he is 231F, having gone down at the first at Punchestown in May. He's had the benefit of a recent run, but his jumping let him down a little when fourth of six over fences at Kempton a month ago and might be better off back over the smaller obstacles. Moon Over Mexico has only raced the once so far, landing a novice hurdle at Newcastle back in January at this class/trip. He might well need a run after such a lay-off, but the form of his win seems to have worked out well with the five runners immediately behind him clocking up a combined 6 wins and 3 places from 18 starts, including a Listed race win for third placed Pinot Rouge.

Don't Tell Su won the second of her two bumpers and has made the frame in all six (232122) over hurdles having run into a couple of decent sorts in her last couple of races. Mr Hope Street is also in good, if not better form with three wins and a half-length runner-up finish (after five months off) from his last four outings. That defeat two starts ago was to Plaisir Des Flos who was completing a five-timer having been the one to beat Don't Tell Su in her penultimate outing.

Mr Hope Street got closer to Plaisir Des Flos than Don't Tell Su did, so they're my 1-2 in that order with Moon Over Mexico making more appeal than Montecam for the final spot.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Character Testing, (7) Clear Storm & (5) Lion Hill

Leg 2: (5) I'm A Lumberjack, (2) As The Fella Says & (13) Wednesday Addams

Leg 3: (2) Bear Market, (6) Jaccours & (1) Aviation

Leg 4: (1) Skycutter, (5) Lucky Lugger & (4) Damarta

Leg 5: (8) You Wear It Well, (7) Telepathique & (1) Cherie d'Am

Leg 6: (6) Mr Hope Street, (5) Don't Tell Su & (4) Moon Over Mexico

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Tix Picks, Wednesday 11/12/24

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Wednesday's racing comes from Dundalk, Hexham, Hereford & Kempton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Kempton...

...and as I've not played Hereford for some time, we'll head there where the ground is expected to be good to soft for our six races that kick off with...

Leg 1 @ 12.35...Jac Jumper has been a runner-up twice and fourth twice in four efforts over fences and never really beaten by far, could be involved down in class and in first-time cheekpieces. Iron d'Ex battled his way to a victory at Ludlow on chase debut in October when returning from six months off the track. hasn't quite hit those heights in two runs since, but I wouldn't write him off just yet. Supasunrise has made the frame in 7 of 18 over fences and has been placed in two of his three starts this term, beaten by just three lengths last time out. 2m4f-2m5f is his preferred trip and he has made the frame in 2 of 4 over course and distance.

Boys Of Wexford has been placed in half of his twelve chases, winning twice including last time out at Fontwell where he stayed on well to win by over 4 lengths pulling away. His last five results read 322P1 having been pulled up in the only race without cheekpieces! Fashion's Model ended the last campaign with results of 24P1 culminating in a four length success at Wincanton. Hasn't looked the same horse in two runs at Ludlow this time around, but a change of scenery might do her some good.

I'll take (9) Boys of Wexford here with (3) Jac Jumper and (4) Iron d'Ex as the alternates.

Leg 2 @ 1.05...This looks like a three horse race to me, starting with (1) Pigeon House who'll look to bounce back from a poor run LTO and now runs for the first time for his new yard. Placed in 9 of 15 over hurdles, he won two starts ago at Ballinrobe and is 133361P since a creditable 9th of 22 in this year's Fred Winter.

(2) Sayva was 1 from 2 in bumpers and is 1 from 2 over hurdles after making the frame on his first effort at Sedgefield coming off a four month break, before scoring at Newcastle by twelve lengths six weeks ago. A similar run gives him a big chance here. Bottom-weight (10) I've Madeupmymind makes a hurdling debut after some decent runs in four bumper defeats. A runner-up on debut and third last time out, both at Class 5 sandwich a pair of decent efforts at Listed class and Class 2, so if taking to hurdling, she could be a cut above the rest here.

I'll take all three, of course!

Leg 3 @ 1.35...Again, there's only really three runners that I have any interest in, starting with my likely winner Secret Des Dieux, who was a runner-up on his third and final bumper run at Uttoxeter back in April before showing little on hurdling debut in May. A change of tactics and a six month break seemed to do the trip at Fakenham recently though, as he raced keenly on his way to a 7.5 length success.

Guchen remains unexposed after just one start to date back in May and although only 5th of 7 in a Southwell bumper on soft ground that day, he was only just over 4.5 lengths off the pace and the first to home have made the frame in all three combined starts since at Class 4. Montana Golden had a couple of decent bumper efforts under his belt in the summer, but never really got to grips with things on his hurdling debut at Kempton recently coming off a four-month break. He should come on for the run, he'll have been well schooled by a good yard and this looks a weaker race than LTO.

Again, all three will find their way onto my ticket builder.

Leg 4 @ 2.05...Grove Road has benefited from a switch from cheekpieces to a visor and has won both starts since the change of headgear, scoring over 3m3f at Newton Abbot in July and then again over today's trip at Huntingdon almost three weeks ago. Up in class and weight, but should still be well involved here. Drop Flight is probably a better chaser than he is a hurdler if truth be told and he was disappointing at Warwick recently. That said, he's in really good hands, ran well two starts ago to make the frame and if things fall his way, he could well grab some prize money from a modest-looking race.

Pipers Cross had made the frame in ten of thirteen handicap hurdles before moving to Emma Lavelle's yard. He wasn't disgraced on yard debut at Bangor, beaten by just six lengths after a six-month layoff and I'd expect better from him here. He didn't wear his cheekpieces last time out, but had finished 221314 in his six other races this year, all in cheekpieces which will be re-fitted today! Bottom-weight Newtonian is one of those 'close but no cigar' types who just doesn't just quite do enough to win and it'll probably be the same here. His sole win from 17 efforts over hurdles came at Warwick in May and his 2024 form reads 44431P34 and has only gone down by three lengths in both starts this season. I see him as a good chance of being in the frame today, but not as the winner.

Grove Road looks my idea of a winner here with Pipers Cross next best. Drop Flight has yet to prove he's a 3m+ hurdler, so Newtonian could be the final placer.

Leg 5 @ 2.35...This could well be a tight contest with only Ascension Day lacking appeal on chase debut having not gone well in three PTP contests. Elsewhere Tapley has been well beaten in his last two outings, including by 17 lengths on chase debut at Newbury just a fortnight ago. he did make the frame in 11 of 18 over hurdles though and was a Class 1 runner-up so there's definitely ability there if jumping well.

Finest View was also well beaten (18L) on chase debut last month, but had finished 12222 in his last five over hurdles. 2m5f was probably too far for him on that chase debut and might fare better over this 2m trip where he won 4 of 6 over hurdles. Beat Box should also love the trip with a career record of 6 wins and 4 further places from 17 over 2m/2m½f. He rattled off four wins on the bounce over fences on August/September, but was beaten by 11 lengths as 4th of 5th next/last time out and his OR of 115 might just be beyond him for win purposes, having started off just 89 five races ago.

Lime Drop was knocking on the door from his very first start over fences back in May 23 finishing 2232252 before finally getting off the mark at Uttoxeter almost four weeks ago. He seemed to have more in hand than a 1.5 length margin might suggest and a 5lb rise might not stop him. Torneo was useful over hurdles last season finishing 23126 before a six month break ahead of a chase career. He was a reasonable third of seven at Uttoxeter on his chase debut after that layoff and kicked on with a staying-on second of at Wincanton last month, beaten by just half a length. He's up 3lbs, but gets weight all round and could be a danger.

Plenty with chances here, but I actually like Lime Drop as a potential winner here and in a safety-first approach, I'll be adding Beat Box and Tapley as backups.

Leg 6 @ 3.07...It's Easy has struggled to see out longer trips, but was second of six over 2m½f at Class 4 two starts ago. 2m at Class 5, eased a pound and with a 3lb claimer on board today, this might be her best chance of getting off the mark. Villainess will run without her hood today after two uninspiring runs in it with it not having the desired effect. Prior to those two outings, she had finished 222514 over hurdles with 2214 over this trip. A Little Something is of interest at what will probably be a big price. She's unexposed after one bumper and three over hurdles, but was in the frame on that bumper run in July and was a decent second of six at Huntingdon last time out. She's down in class and an opening handicap mark of 93 might be workable and she might well be a nice E/W bet for someone.

Culligran has finished 2331 in her four handicap hurdles to date, wining here by seven lengths over course and distance a fortnight ago, having stayed on well and pulled away. She's up 7lbs for that run, but a similar effort here could/should be enough. Lady Caro is the stablemate of A Little Something and is probably Miss Lavelle's first string here. She has, however, yet to win after 12 starts, but has made the frame in three of five handicap hurdles contests and was second of fourteen last time out. She was, admittedly, some 12 lengths behind the winner who has since made the frame again, but she was almost ten lengths clear of the horse back in third.

A tricky finale for me, but I think my 1-2-3 is going to be Culligran, It's Easy and Lady Caro.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (9) Boys of Wexford, (3) Jac Jumper & (4) Iron d'Ex

Leg 2: (2) Sayva, (1) Pigeon House & (10) I've Madeupmymind

Leg 3: (1) Secret Des Dieux, (2) Guchen & (5) Montana Golden

Leg 4: (3) Grove Road, (8) Pipers Cross & (11) Newtonian

Leg 5: (4) Lime Drop, (3) Beat Box & (1) Tapley

Leg 6: (1) Culligran, (6) It's Easy & (7) Lady Caro

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Tix Picks, Tuesday 10/12/24

/in /by

Tuesday's racing comes from Fontwell, Punchestown, Uttoxeter & Southwell.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Southwell...

The money is at Southwell, but as it's the winter season, we do try to focus on the NH cards, so let's head to Fontwell for their six-race card on soft ground starting with...

Leg 1 @ 1.00...(1) Malinka already has a win and two thirds from four starts over hurdles, scoring on heavy ground at Cartmel in August beating Torrent by more than three lengths. Torrent went on to win next time out and was third in the Grade 2 Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle at Cheltenham in November.

(3) St Lukes Chelsea was a creditable fourth of eight over course and distance last time out, having previously been running over 6f/1m on the Flat/AW, so should be sharp between the hurdles.

(6) Playaway Girl is at least used to the trip, having raced in three bumpers this season already. She hasn't admittedly looked like winning any of them but the experience should stand her in good stead.

I fancy Malinka to take this ahead of St Lukes Chelsea.

Leg 2 @ 1.30...(1) High Treason won two of his last four over hurdles including on heavy ground over this track/trip in February and he made an encouraging chase debut at Newbury recently until a couple of errors put paid to any chance he might have had. He hadn't raced for 198 days, so should come on for the run and the jumping experience.

(3) Getaway Drumlee won a 2m2f heavy ground hurdle here back in March and was only beaten by just over three lengths on his chase debut at Huntingdon just over five weeks ago on his return from 200 days off. A former Irish PTP Winner, so should be able to jump and have stamina to boot.

(5) Brulure Noire is three from eight over fences, winning two from four last season, including last time out at Chepstow in April. This means he hasn't raced for 241 days but won on his seasonal bow in 2022 after 230 days off and again last year after 211 days, so I wouldn't use his absence as an excuse.

(7) Good Friday Fairy won this race last year as the sole finisher of five runners with the other four all failing to tackle the last fence. His last three over hurdles saw him finish 212 before results of 3121 over fences culminated in a seven length win at Uttoxeter in January, but was disappointing in two subsequent runs and now returns from 282 days off.

(8) Koenigsstern has however raced as recently as three weeks ago when a runner-up Plumpton on his second crack at fences four weeks after also finishing as runner-up on chase debut over 2m2f here at Fontwell. The ground was probably too quick last out and these softer conditions should suit him better.
Some good efforts in defeat in handicap hurdles/chases without looking ahead of his mark

Getaway Drumlee and High Treason would be my two against the field here and I'll also take Koenigsstern narrowly ahead of Brulure Noire.

Koenigsstern was withdrawn whilst I was writing the piece so we're now on Brulure Noire as third pick.

Leg 3 @ 2.00...The top end of the card seems to be the area to focus upon...

(1) Eileen's Milan is the only runner in the field without a recent run, having had wind surgery during a five month absence following a tame effort at Newton Abbot in July. He had howeverr an really well over the same track/trip ten days earlier, finishing second of eleven just half a length off the pace so the potential is there as he drops in class for his handicap debut.

(2) Groom De Cotte was still a maiden after 18 starts (1 x NHF, 5 x chs & 12 x hrds) before winning here over 3m2f last time out, although he had made the frame in five of twelve over these smaller obstacles. He's up 10lbs for that win, but still runs off a lower mark than some of his best efforts to date, so he's not out of this.

(4) Chancellorstown has yet to make the frame in six starts, but was a runner-up in a four-horse race at Plumpton last time out, headed on the line and beaten by a nose behind a 5/6 favourite over 3m1f. That near miss should do him good and he might finish stronger over a shorter trip.

(5) Arctic Saint returned to the UK after four runs in Ireland and a four month break to finish third of ten over 2m4½f on his yard debut at Leicester three weeks ago. His jumping was a little sketchy at times and he'll need to improve here to get closer to winning.

Of these four, I see a fairly tight battle between Chancellorstown and Groom De Cotte and I prefer Eileen's Milan over Arctic Saint for third.

Leg 4 @ 2.30...(1) Captain Claude has been in the first three home in each of his last eight starts, including a 2m3½f win here at Fontwell over hurdles as well as two chases (2m6f & 3m2½f) Underfoot conditions look ideal and his jockey takes 10lbs off.

(2) Shillanavogy was a gallant runner-up on chase debut at Cartmel back in May but struggled at Ffos Las next/last time out three weeks ago. May come on for having had the run and the drop in trip might help.

(3) Pilgrims King was going great this year finishing 321214 before being pulled up at Uttoxeter in May and then again at Ffos Las six months later when last seen three weeks ago. That said, he too should come on for the run and he's now only 2lbs higher than his last win.

(5) Leading Swoop was a solid third of eight over 2m4f here last month on his return from 196-day break. He has yet to win after 12 starts but this might be his best chance, dropped another 2lbs.

(6) Valirann Gold also went well on his seasonal bow, finishing third of eight at Lingfield less than a fortnight ago, despite being off the track for more than seven months. prior to his break he finished 14323 in his last five over fences, winning on this track over 2m3½f on heavy ground. 2m might have been too sharp last time out, so the extra distance should be a plus for him and he'd be my likely winner ahead of Captain Claude with Leading Swoop a marginal preference over Pilgrims King for third.

Leg 5 @ 3.00...This surely has to be all about (1) Hollygrove Cha Cha who is 3 from 3 under Rules after two heavy ground bumper wins in the spring were followed by a facile eight length success on hurdles debut over at Ludlow almost five weeks ago. She hadn't run for 199 days, so she might well have even more to give and she should be taking this one to go 4/4.

Of the others, if there's a challenge to be had, it will probably come from (3) Eileen's Orders, (6) Katira Du Mestivel, (7) Miss Ireland and/or (9) Two Fingers West...

Eileen's Orders was third of fifteen on hurdling debut at Warwick three weeks ago and should come on for the run. Despite falling in a good position late on in an Irish PTP, Katira Du Mestivel showed enough to change hands for 110,000 Euro, suggesting there's something about this half-sister to four winners. Miss Ireland won a 2m2f bumper here on debut in September and found 2m at Ascot a little too sharp next/last time out. 2m3½f might suit her better tackling hurdles for the first time, whilst Two Fingers West makes a debut under Rules after finishing third and then first in two Irish PTP races after which she was sold for £38,000.

It's Hollygrove Cha Cha for me, of course, but I'll also take a chance on Katira Du Mestivel. Ben Pauling is a really good trainer and she was an expensive purchase, so i assume others know her better than I do. Of the others, I suspect Miss Ireland might well be better than the big price she'll go off at.

Leg 6 @ 3.30...(1) Summer In Milan was 4th in a bumper at Cork on debut and achieved the same result in the middle run of three over hurdles when running here at Fontwell 2m3½f in October. Could easily be involved but would need big improvement to win.

(2) Almuhit was useful on the Flat, winning at trips up to 2m1f, but we're still waiting for that form to be brought over to his hurdling career, but it does mean that his mark continues to drop.

(3) John Betjeman might well be the one to beat here despite a winless run stretching back 20 races over 20 months. He has made the frame in half of those 20 defeats and could be on a dangerous mark in a poor looking race now some 12lbs lower than his last win.

(9) Motazzen is 0/9 over hurdles, but was second of eleven at Uttoxeter back in July and went well for a good way before being outpaced late on at Southwell a fortnight ago. He pretty much led until the last hurdle before being ran out of it by faster finishers, eventually coming home 4th of 11. A similar effort over a longer trip puts him in the mix today.

(7) Je Suis Sacre hasn't shown much in three starts over shorter trips to acquire an opening mark of 83, but a step up in trip, a drop in class and a stack of stats suggest this might suit him better, even if he hasn't been seen for ten months.

That said, I still think the lay-off could be an issue and I'd be more inclined to go with (3) John Betjeman, (9) Motazzen & (1) Summer In Milan

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Malinka & (3) St Lukes Chelsea

Leg 2: (3) Getaway Drumlee, (1) High Treason & (8) Koenigsstern (5) Brulure Noire

Leg 3: (4) Chancellorstown, (2) Groom De Cotte & (1) Eileen's Milan

Leg 4: (6) Valirann Gold, (1) Captain Claude & (5) Leading Swoop

Leg 5: (1) Hollygrove Cha Cha, (6) Katira Du Mestivel & (7) Miss Ireland

Leg 6: (3) John Betjeman, (9) Motazzen & (1) Summer In Milan

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck everyone,
Chris

Tix Picks, Monday 09/12/24

/in /by

Monday's racing comes from Lingfield, Musselburgh, Newcastle & Wolverhampton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Newcastle...

We've got soft ground (of course!) at both NH venues, but with Musselburgh having some really small fields, let's head to not-so-leafy Lingfield for these six races...

Leg 1 @ 12.30...This really should be all about Willie Mullins' (1) Full Confession, an Irish PTP winner, who easily landed a Fairyhouse bumper on his debut under Rules four weeks ago. He carries a penalty for that win, but it's hard to see him not winning. Next best might well be debutant (5) Wild Goose who is a half-brother to Black Poppy who has 4 wins and 5 places from 15 over hurdles and won a Class 1 handicap at Haydock last year. The yard has a strike rate of over 18% in bumpers since 2017 with over 42% of those runners making the frame.

(6) Celtic Queen showed some promise when a runner-up on debut in a Hereford bumper four weeks ago, beaten by just three quarters of a length at 18/1 and she's sure to be much shorter here with that run under her belt. It probably wasn't the strongest of races, but you can only compete with what's put in with you and the experience would have been vital.

You could just put Full Confession on your tickets here and be done with it, but I'll still take the other two as back-ups, just in case!

Leg 2 @ 1.00...With the bottom three on the card all running from outside of the handicap, I'm going to focus on the top five...

Mumbles had been running consistently well over hurdles for some time (3421214), mainly on soft and heavy ground, before taking a 224-day break. He returned to action at Ffos Las four weeks ago and was a decent runner-up on his chase debut and should improve for that run. Iskar d'Airy got off the mark at the tenth time of asking last time out, so he knows how to win, but hasn't raced since that win 610 days ago, makes a chasing debut today and is unproven on soft ground.

John W Creasy is a twelve-race maiden after one bumper run, eight hurdle races and three chases. He seemed to have got the hang of chasing when a reasonable 5th of 12 at Exeter in October, but was pulled up last time out. Maybe the huge drop in trip will help today? Rock On Tommy makes a third appearance over fences, more than 2yrs 4 months since his last one, but comes here off the back of a trio of good efforts over hurdles (324) and goes off a mark 8lbs lower than his last chase run and 9lbs lower than his last hurdle win.

Robins Field has yet to win after 18 (6 x hrd, 12 x chs) outings, but has been the runner-up in four of his six outings in 2024, including last time out at Cartmel on soft ground and maybe he's just destined to always be the bridesmaid?

(1) Mumbles makes most appeal to me here today with persistent runner-up (5) Robins Field probably likely to reprise that role. (4) Rock On Tommy might be the 'best of the rest'.

Leg 3 @ 1.30...Only six go to post now for this, but it still looks pretty competitive with the likely winner for me being (1) Diva Luna who makes a hurdling debut after a pair of soft ground bumper wins. She won a Listed event at Market Rasen on debut in February and followed that up with a Grade 2 at the Aintree Festival and I'm confident that her yard will have schooled her well.

(4) Jasmine d'Airy won a Tipperary bumper by six lengths on debut back in May and subsequently changed hands for £120,000. That kind of money doesn't guarantee success, but it shows she's highly rated. (5) Metkayina was fourth behind Diva Luna in that Aintree bumper above, having won at Ludlow on her previous outing. She's had the benefit of both a recent run and a hurdles debut, when second of six here at Lingfield over 2m3½f, a length and a quarter behind It's Hard To Know, who has won again since.

My shortlist is completed by (6) Northern Air who has finished as runner-up in both races over hurdles so far and although beaten by nine lengths at Ayr last time out should still go well here.

This, however, should be all about (1) Diva Luna and I'd expect her to win comfortably here with (5) Metkayina the biggest challenge. If you're taking three from this one, then I suspect that (4) Jasmine D'Airy might just have too much for Northern Air.

Leg 4 @ 2.00...(2) Kado De Joie has won two of his last five including last time out at Fontwell coming off a six month break and whilst he's up 5lbs for that win, he should come on for having had the run. (3) Peking Opera won a Listed race on the Flat and also competed Groups 1, 2 & 3 in that sphere, so he shouldn't lack for speed between the flights here. he did win over hurdles at Sandown in February before reverting back to the Flat for the summer and possibly needed a 'sighter' back over hurdles last time out when furth back at Sandown a month ago.

(4) Golden Maverick never really got involved last time out finishing 12th of 15 at Cheltenham coming back from a six month break, but prior to that break, had finished in the frame in all five starts (23112) over hurdles and it's not inconceivable that he goes better today. he was also useful on the Flat, making the frame in 7 of 11, winning four times and he handles soft ground well enough, as does bottom weight (8) Followango whose hurdles form to date consists of five races on soft or heavy ground with results of 32232 after winning a heavy ground bumper by 19 lengths on debut at Ffos Las 13 months ago. She unseated her rider last time out at Ffos Las, but that was her chase debut on quicker ground and came after six months off track, so we should see a different version of her here.

I can make a case for all four, but I'm only takin three and I think I'll omit Peking Opera.

Leg 5 @ 2.30...When I took a cursory look last night, only three of the twelve runners really interested and sadly my preferred option (Pedley Wood) was withdrawn this morning, leaving me with two from eleven and they are...

(2) Icaque de l'Isle has surprisingly yet to get off the mark after ten attempts, but hasn't been running badly and has been in the first three home on five occasions (which is all we need here today!) He's down in class here, jockey Harry Bannister is riding well and the horse is used to soft ground. He should be in the first three home, as will hopefully be (3) Shot Boii who has had a reasonable 2024 over fences finishing 12342P83. Of that run, he was pulled up at Southwell in April on his sixth start in less than 16 weeks, so he might have already been done for the season. He was eighth of thirteen at Ffos Las after a 201-day absence and was then back to his usual level last time out. He's two from five here at Lingfield, gets the trip and the going and also drops in class.

In the absence of my preferred runner, I'm adding (8) Twilight Glory to the ticket builder, after he ran really well to finish third of ten at Warwick recently coming off a break of 195 days and he did win twice on heavy ground last season.

Leg 6 @ 3.00...And I've also lost my number one pick (King William Rufus) for the finale, which will hopefully hand the race to (2) Dominic's Fault who was unlucky to go down by just a short-head over 2m4f at Carlisle last time out, having not raced for 254 days. He was third here over course and distance in February and won on heavy ground at Leicester and with the benefit of a recent run allied to a drop back in trip, he should be on the premises again today.

The big challenge is expected to come from (9) Star Of Affinity who came back from his own summer break to win over 2m1f at Exeter in October and he followed that up with a two length defeat as a runner-up at Ascot last time out. He was headed before the last that day over 2m3½f and he too should improve for the drop back in trip.

It really should be a two-horse affair here and I'm going to leave it as that.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Full Confession, (5) Wild Goose & (6) Celtic Queen

Leg 2: (1) Mumbles, (5) Robins Field & (4) Rock On Tommy

Leg 3: (1) Diva Luna, (5) Metkayina & (4) Jasmine D'Airy

Leg 4: (2) Kado De Joie, (4) Golden Maverick & (8) Followango

Leg 5: (2) Icaque de l'Isle, (3) Shot Boii & (8) Twilight Glory

Leg 6: (2) Dominic's Fault & (9) Star Of Affinity

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Tix Picks, Saturday 07/12/24

/in /by

Saturday's racing comes from Aintree, Chepstow, Navan, Sandown, Wetherby & Wolverhampton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £100,000 placepot guarantee at Sandown as well as a £75k pot at Aintree...

However, I'm writing this on Friday evening, because I'm out of the house for the day by 7am on Saturday. And as all the UK NH tracks are holding inspections after I'll have gone, I'm taking a safety first approach with a look at the first six races on Wolverhampton's tapeta track instead, starting with...

Leg 1 @ 4.30...(1) Echo Of Glory is a half-brother to Hodd's Girl who won seven times between 5f and 7f and although he has failed to make the frame in his two starts to date, the penny did seem to be dropping last time out. (2) The Voominator is probably wanting to go further in time, being a half-brother to Baba Boom, won three times at 1m 3f and 1m 4f, but he has shown some signs of ability in two defeats and should come on for having had a recent run. Well-held sixth in both his runs and needs to find plenty of progress

(4) Sundiata Keita looks the one to beat here after going down by just two necks when third at Newcastle a fortnight ago, which was much better than his debut and further progression will be enough here. (5) Sun Keeper ran well in snatches over this course and distance on debut almost three weeks ago and should improve for having had the experience. Yard & rider work well together here at this track and are in good recent form.

Of this quartet, I think I'll omit Echo Of Glory and Sundiata Keita would be my one to beat.

Leg 2 @ 5.00...I've already narrowed this down to the three that finished as runners-up on debut and I'd take them in this order if asked...

(4) Soldiers Star was a bit slow to get going at Newcastle but made enough headway to lead with 2f to run, but was unfortunately headed late on, going down by just a short head. (9) Sunlit Uplands was also beaten by a shorthead, narrowly failing to reel the winner in, after he too started slowly. There's not much between these two, but Soldiers Star has Tapeta experience.

Third in line for me is (5) Trouble Man who unlike the other two was quickly away at Southwell on debut but when pressed late on, couldn't repel Kildonan who went on to beat him by a neck.

All three are entitled to come on for those runs and in fairness, any of them could win/place here, so I'll take all three!

Leg 3 @ 5.30...(1) Edge Ofthe Unknown is a half-brother to Alpamayo who was a winner over 1m 4f and he's by Quality Road out of Nefertiti. he ran really well on debut at Newcastle over a mile on debut a month ago, finishing strongly to beat the fav by half a length going away and more is expected from him. (6) Jiff's Army has only raced over 7f so far, but has made the frame in three of four starts and was third here last time out on his A/W debut, so he should improve for that run, whilst breeding suggests the step up in trip should help.

(7) Kentucky River was only 5th of 7, beaten by four lengths on debut at Chelmsford a month ago, but he ran better than that sounds. I don't think he got the best of rides and ended up cramped for room on more than one occasion and had to switch out late on. A clearer passage here gets him in the mix, whilst (8) Perfect Life was much better than his SP of 12/1 when finishing third of twelve on debut at Southwell in late October racing against more experienced runners. Bulletin finished second that day and he has since stepped up in class to finish third here over 1m½f.

I've got Edge Ofthe Unknown to beat Jiff's Army here and I think I prefer Perfect Life to Kentucky River for third.

Leg 4 @ 6.00...(1) Three Dons has made the frame in all but one of his last eleven starts, winning seven times, but all his best form comes on turf and hasn't raced on the A/W since April. He has yet to win on the A/W after 24 attempts and would need to transfer some of his recent form over. to succeed here. (5) Skye Breeze on the other hand, has won four of nine on the tapeta and made the frame in two of the five defeats. The only potential fly in his ointment is the fact that he hasn't raced for almost seven months.

(8) No Surrender has been in action of late, though and although he has yet to win on the A/W, has made the frame in four of his eight attempts, including most recently at Lingfield when second of nine, beaten by just a head. Elladonna was third that day and she has since stepped up two classes to finish as a runner-up beaten by just a neck on Wednesday.

(11) Something likes to lead and had two made all victories over this trip at Newcastle inside three days in October and his last five A/W results now read 21162 having been a runner-up here over course and distance on his last run at 14/1, beaten only by the 9/4 fav. Another who likes this track/trip is (12) Optician who has 4 wins and 4 places from 11 on the A/W. he has 4 wins and 2 places here from 8 at Wolverhampton including 4 wins and a place from 7 over course and distance and arrives here off the back of a runner-up finish over 1m6f on this track.

An interesting-looking contest, but I can't take all of them, so I'd omit Three Dons on A/W form alone and I'll take Optician over Sky Breeze as the backup to Something and No Surrender, as Skye Breeze might need the run.

Leg 5 @ 6.30...I suspect that the top half of the card is where the money wil go for this one, starting with top-weight (1) Asgard's Captain. he's not in the kind of form that saw him finish 131152111 from June 2023 to late March of this year, but raced here after 20 weeks rest recently and showed some promise in 1.5 length defeat over this course and distance. he has been eased a pound by the assessor and should come on for having had a run. (2) Lerwick made a good impression on his A/W debut, when second of twelve over a mile at Southwell last time out going down by just half a length. he has won over 1m and 1m½f on turf and should go well again here.

(3) Arcadian Nights has made the frame in 10 of 25 on the A/W, winning seven times, including three over this course and distance. He had been out of sorts since the last of his C&D wins back in February, possibly as a result of running of marks in the 80's, but showed signs of life when a C&D runner-up, beaten by three quarters of a length last time out off 77. A 3lb rise makes this tough again, but he should at least be involved, as could (5) Titian who was a winner at Ripon by a head in May off today's mark and comes here off the back of a creditable fourth of ten beaten by just over two lengths at Newcastle last month.

All four have a great chance of making the frame, but Titian is the one I'll leave off my tickets and for those looking for a winner, Asgard's Captain is the one for me.

Leg 6 @ 7.00...It's a fairly poor looking race for a Class 4 that acts as our finale, but I've compiled a short list of four headed by top weight and my likely winner (1) Alzahir who drops back down from Class 2 having been beaten by just three lengths here over course and distance last time out. He had a win and a runner-up finish in his previous two starts before that Class 2 outing and if running like he did at Newcastle a month ago, could be hard to beat.

(3) Chalk Mountain clocked up an A/W hat-trick in September/October, which unfortunately moved his mark from a workable 68 to a difficult 82. That said, he was a 1.5 length runner-up over this trip at Southwell off this mark five weeks ago and drops in class here. (4) Admiral D hasn't won for 13 months now, losing ten on the spin, but on his day can be a useful E/W or placepot pick, having been a Class 3 runner-up twice in that sequence of defeats and although seventh of fifteen last time out, was only beaten by 2.5 lengths and drops two classes here.

(7) He's A Gentleman completes the quartet and of his 3 wins and 5 places from 18 on the A/W, he has 2 wins and 3 places from 9 here at Wolverhampton and has won over course and distance. He's now down to his last winning mark of 77 and might have a say in the proceedings if things fall his way.

All things considered, He's A Gentleman is probably the weakest of the four, so he's the one to miss out.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (4) Sundiata Keita, (5) Sun Keeper & (2) The Voominator

Leg 2: (4) Soldiers Star, (9) Sunlit Uplands & (5) Trouble Man

Leg 3: (1) Edge Ofthe Unknown, (6) Jiff's Army & (8) Perfect Life

Leg 4: (11) Something, (8) No Surrender & (12) Optician

Leg 5: (1) Asgard's Captain, (2) Lerwick & (3) Arcadian Nights

Leg 6: (1) Alzahir, (3) Chalk Mountain & (4) Admiral D

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Tix Picks, Friday 06/12/24

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Friday's racing comes from Dundalk, Exeter, Newcastle, Sandown & Sedgefield.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Sandown...

There are  some quality albeit small fields and a big pot at Sandown, so let's head there for six races on good to soft/soft ground, beginning with...

Leg 1 @ 12.48...(2) City Of London is a half-brother to Grade 2 winner Nemean Lion and was beaten by less than two lengths on debut as a runner-up behind odds-on My Noble Lord at Chepstow in October, more to come.

(4) Hot Fuss was useful on the Flat being considered to contest a couple of Listed races last year and ended his time in that code with finishes of 2332 this autumn before a promising hurdles debut at Wincanton almost six weeks ago. He was unlucky to bump into the 1/2 fav East India Dock that day, but did beat the rest of the field. The winner has since won a Grade 2 by 18 lengths at Cheltenham.

(7) Small Fry was 121122 on his last six runs on the AW/Flat, winning over trips as far as 1m6½f and his record on soft or worse ground reads 3122 so he shouldn't lack for stamina, but was being at very short odds on hurdling debut when third of eight at Fontwell last month and will ned to improve.

I'd have them in order as 4, 7, 2 but I'm going to take all three anyway.

Leg 2 @ 1.23...Just five go to post for this one too and I find it hard to look beyond last year's winner (1) Mount Tempest. He went on to win a Class 2 handicap after this race last year and was a decent-enough fourth of fifteen at Bangor recently despite coming off a seven month absence.

I'd be all in with this one, but I will take a couple of longer priced horses as backup and the value seems to lie with (2) Mint Gold and possibly (6) Calgary Tiger.

Mint Gold's record last season read 1F22 in a light campaign and he's already had a run this season, ending a 176-day break by finishing third at Carlisle without ever really being pushed, whilst Calgary Tiger gets weight all round and comes here off the back of a really good effort at Aintree four weeks ago when third of eight at a big price. This pair will probably be outliers in the market, but this kind of horse pushes the dividend up if they place!

Leg 3 @ 1.58...This looked like a two-horse race to me between (3) Bill Joyce and (4) Kingston Pride. Bill Joyce won his sole PTP race and his first two bumpers before being well beaten in the Champion Bumper at this year's Cheltenham Festival. He then didn't race for eight months but came back to win nicely over today's trip at Carlisle on hurdles debut at the start of November.

Kingston Pride was a runner-up beaten by 1.5 lengths in a Class 2, A/W bumper at Lingfield back in January, but scored on turf debut landing a bumper at Exeter in April prior to a 211-day break. His return to action at Uttoxeter three weeks ago saw him win very comfortably over this trip on his first crack at hurdles.

I expect the main challenges to come from (1) Admiral Stewart and/or (6) Quebecois. The former is a former PTP winner, who made all to win over 2m at Ffos Las 16 days ago and should relish the step up in trip, whilst the latter was a soft ground hurdle winner at Chepstow at the end of October when running for the first time in over seven months and his yard (Paul Nicholls) won this race in 2019 and 2022.

Admiral Stewart edges it for me for third here.

Leg 4 @ 2.33...I've lost the withdrawn Riskintheground from my overnight shortlist, leaving me with three that I'd be happy with. With regards to finding a winner, I'm struggling to see past (3) Resplendent Grey who was a decent hurdler winning on soft ground at Uttoxeter in May, before a chase debut at the same venue five months later saw him win again. He backed up that first chase effort with a staying-on second in a Listed chase at Cheltenham last month going down by just half a length to Hyland who is now 3 from 4 over fences.

Of the rest, the ones I think that might fare best would be (1) Cadell and/or (2) Handstands. Cadell won very cosily over this trip at Wetherby finishing 15 lengths clear. This is an obviously much tougher assignment and I suspect the market will show this tougher but his yard go well here and this one could easily outrun his odds.

Handstands, however, has yet to complete a race over fences, having fallen on his debut at Wincanton four weeks ago. The context of this is that despite eight months off track, his yard deemed him good enough to tackle a Grade 2 chase first up and he actually went really well until a mistake three out saw him fall when in a great position. A similar effort in a clear round puts him right in the mix today and he already has top level success under his belt from landing a Listed hurdle at Huntingdon in February.

Leg 5 @ 3.03...Things go from bad to worse for me here, as I've lost two of my top three from this one with Beachcomber and Tea Clipper now not running, leaving LTO winner (6) Jupiter Allen as my number 1 pick here. He made the frame in four of eight over hurdles and won on heavy ground at Exeter back in March. He returned to Exeter in October for a first crack at their fences and despite a 166-day absence ran well enough to win at this trip/class.

The main challenger is probably going to be (8) Hoe Joe Smoke whilst (3) Jupiter Du Gite could offer some value as an alternative.

Hoe Joe Smoke is yet to win after six attempts, but did make the frame in four of five over hurdles and when making a chase debut at Uttoxeter in October was a very promising runner-up to Resplendent Grey (who runs at 2.33) even though he hadn't been seen for over ten months. He should come on for the run and he has gone well at this trip.

Jupiter Du Gite is a confirmed front-runner who'll look to string the field out here in the hope of holding on to some prize money. He has finished 2142 over fences this year including a win on heavy ground and that stamina might be needed as he goes beyond 2m4f for the first time, a fact probably recognised by the market.

Leg 6 @ 3.35...I've lost Cavern Club from my overnight shortlist, but my 1-2 are still in place in the form of (2) I Wish You and (5) Fasol.

I Wish You has yet to finish outside the first two home, winning one of five starts and a similar top two finish will suffice for me here today. All five runs have been on soft or heavy ground so underfoot conditions are no issue and he battled well to win at Carlisle last time out in his first run for six months, standing him in good stead for his handicap debut.

Fasol's record isn't anywhere near as good, but I just thought that he was 'best of the rest'. His record reads 4244, which signifies unfulfilled potential to me as in he goes well enough but doesn't quite get home. His best run to date came over 2m5f at Kempton, so he has stamina and he might well need it here, having never raced on soft ground before.

After these two, I'm probably looking at the likes of (4) Authentic Legacy to fill the void created by Cavern Club. Authentic Legacy has shown some promise so far, but remains a maiden after 2 bumpers and 3 hurdle races, although he has been in the frame in all three over hurdles, finishing as runner-up in each, going down by just a length and a quarter last time out. He was headed before the last at Fontwell almost three weeks ago, despite being sent off at 5/6 and the drop back in trip should help him here, as his yard look for a fifth win in this race over the past ten years.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (4) Hot Fuss, (7) Small Fry & (2) City Of London

Leg 2: (1) Mount Tempest, (2) Mint Gold & (6) Calgary Tiger

Leg 3: (4) Kingston Pride, (3) Bill Joyce & (1) Admiral Stewart

Leg 4: (3) Resplendent Grey, (1) Cadell & (2) Handstands

Leg 5: (6) Jupiter Allen, (8) Hoe Joe Smoke & (3) Jupiter Du Gite

Leg 6: (2) I Wish You, (5) Fasol & (4) Authentic Legacy

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

 

Tix Picks, Thursday 05/12/24

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Thursday's racing comes from Chelmsford, Leicester, Market Rasen & Wincanton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Chelmsford...

We'll not follow the money onto the A/W scene today and we'll head for Leicester instead where soft/heavy ground is expected for our six races that kick off with...

Leg 1 @ 12.25...Dark Mix won a soft ground bumper on debut at Market Rasen this time last year and wasn't disgraced back at that same track when making a hurdles debut three weeks ago. despite not having raced for ten month, he was in contention until 2 out when he began to fade, eventually coming home 5th of the 12 runners. The third placed runner has since made the frame again, whilst the horse in fourth has won at Southwell. Got A Dream also faded late on in a hurdling debut after a break recently, finishing fourth of eleven some seven months after competing in a Grade 2 bumper at the Liverpool Festival. He's a soft ground bumper winner already and should come on for last month's reappearance.

Je Viens Du Large came within a neck of making the frame last time out, when fourth of twelve here over course and distance in a tougher race than this. He drops down in class here and his yard are in decent nick right now. Lawrenny steps up in class on his seasonal reappearance after a nine month break following his win in a heavy ground bumper at Newcastle back in March which came almost eight weeks after he'd been a runner-up on soft ground at Sedgefield. So I suspect the underfoot conditions will be fine, it's just a case of whether he takes to hurdling.

Sixmilebridge won a Class 2 bumper on debut back in February before tackling the Gr1 Champion Bumper at Cheltenham in March where he was ultimately well beaten. There's no disgrace in that, of course and the market deemed him worth of being the 11/10 fav on his hurdles debut five weeks ago, but the effects of an eight month break saw him headed late on in a 1.25 length defeat. The third placed horse was a further 1.5 lengths back and he went on to win by 12 lengths at Hereford last week.

(7) Sixmilebridge drops in class now and with the benefit of that near miss under his belt, should be the one to beat here with (2) Got A Dream and possibly (1) Dark Mix best poised to challenge.

Leg 2 @ 12.55...Pearl Island improved steadily over hurdles and was third of nine at Ludlow six weeks ago, despite being off track for over five months. This looks a modest race for a chase debut for a yard who have been going well of late and tend to do well with chasers. Jikala only has four races under her belt and won over hurdles at Hereford two starts ago. Sadly that was in March 2023 and she hasn't been seen for 589 days since finishing fourth at Ludlow. I'd be interested here had she had a more recent outing, but I fear she'll need the run. Shesupincourt was third over course and distance less than three weeks ago when the good to firm ground was a little too quick for her. All her best form and her two career wins have been on soft/heavy ground, so conditions here could be ideal for a horse that stays 3m+ in the mud.

Williamdeconqueror has finished 2525332 in his last six over fences and stays 3m2f in the mud as shown at Chepstow on his last run. he hasn't raced since February, but was only beaten by a short head on last year's seasonal reappearance after a break. Everyonesacritic might not strike you as a contender on recent form and his 4th of 7 at Ludlow most recently was a modest effort, but that was 2m on good ground. Elsewhere, he has place form on soft ground and at 3m1½f, so longer and softer than LTO at Ludlow are what he needs and he did win a soft ground handicap hurdle off 2lbs higher at Musselburgh earlier this season.

That said, I don't think Everyonesacritic is as good as the other four and with Jikala probably needing a run, my 1-2 here would be (5) Williamdeconqueror and (4) Shesupincourt with (1) Pearl Island my backup plan.

Leg 3 @ 1.25...I'd expect this to be a two-horse affair between the first two on the card.

Inside Man has two wins and a runner-up finish from five starts over hurdles and turned over a 4/6 fav at Exeter 17 days ago. He does carry a penalty, of course, for that win, but he's race fit and in good form, whereas the lightly raced Carismatic Soldier has just one bumper run to his name and hasn't been seen for nine months.

That said, he went well enough on debut to finish second on soft ground with the nest runner a further seven lengths back in a well strung out field. I'm taking his fitness and jumping on trust, mainly because the others in the race make less appeal, although UK debutant Authodidacte did win two of his last five on the Flat in France.

I'll stick with (1) Inside Man & (2) Carismatic Soldier here though.

Leg 4 @ 1.55...Well, this looks an awful field of ten runners with a collective career record of 7 wins from 111 runs and if we ignore Mr Zee's 6 wins and 5 places from 41 races, his rivals have just one win and three places from seventy between them! That said, three horses have to make the frame and I'm hoping that the least worst of them are...

(2) Trust House is the other winner in the pack, having scored over 1m4f at Ripon four starts ago. has shown little in three over hurdles so far, but drops in class for a yard & trainer in good recent form and with good course records.

(9) Mr Zee is the one with the wins under his belt, admittedly all on the Flat/AW at 1m2f-1m4f, but winning is better than losing in any sphere. he has two wins and a place from five on soft ground, a similar record here at Leicester and was a runner-up over 2m at Kempton earlier in the year.

(7) Nedzor also drops in class for a handicap debut and was third on soft ground on debut at Chepstow this time last year and was fourth on his third/last run at the same track back in January on heavy ground. The mud won't be an issue, but the lay-off might.

Leg 5 @ 2.25...Just five go to post for this one and I'm of the opinion that Mcgrath From Clune and My Portia will both need the run after six months off and that neither of them are as good as the other three and the market will probably back that assertion up, which leaves us with three.

I do, however, think that I'm against the market in terms of how they'll finish, because I expect (1) Davids Well to be very short if last night's tissues are anything to go by. He won convincingly (14 lengths) over hurdles at Plumpton on soft ground in February but was only 8th of 14 at Newbury a month later, beaten by 23 lengths and hasn't raced for 258 days since and that last run plus the lay-off make me think he might be a false favourite on chase debut.

(3) Samazul on the other hand won a soft ground chase over 2m2f at Fontwell in October and can be excused an indifferent effort on quicker ground over a longer trip at the same track four weeks ago, whilst (4) Johnny Mac has three wins from his last six starts, is 2 from 3 here at Leicester, has won on both soft and heavy ground and is 2 from 2 here over course and distance. His record in 2m chases reads 31117 and he's 3lbs lower than his last C&D win from this time last year.

Safety first here from me, though, as I'll take all three despite my reservations about Davids Well. If my tickets are still alive at this point, I'm not getting burnt by a shortie!

Leg 6 @ 3.00...A wide open finale, where the two form horses are Easy To Follow and Shantwopointfive.

(7) Shantwopointfive is still unexposed after one bumper run and two over hurdles and her career form reads 221, getting off the mark over 2m6f at Cartmel last time and she was a heavy ground runner-up on debut. She hasn't raced since that win back in late May, so we'll take her fitness on trust. An opening handicap mark of 107 doesn't seem too onerous and her yard have 16 wins from 53 (30.2%) with LTO winners...

(3) Easy To Follow has only raced five times in total and after a third place on soft ground in her sole bumper, she has finished 1142 over hurdles, all on heavy ground apart from her two length defeat as a runner-up on handicap debut at Bangor five weeks ago. That was on soft ground, though and came after nine months off the track, so she could well come on again, especially with underfoot conditions to suit.

If I'm honest, they're the two to beat here and there's not much jumping out at me from the rest of the card, so I'll just stick with this pair.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (7) Sixmilebridge, (2) Got A Dream & (1) Dark Mix

Leg 2: (5) Williamdeconqueror, (4) Shesupincourt & (1) Pearl Island

Leg 3: (1) Inside Man & (2) Carismatic Soldier

Leg 4: (2) Trust House, (9) Mr Zee & (7) Nedzor

Leg 5: (1) Davids Well, (3) Samazul & (4) Johnny Mac

Leg 6: (7) Shantwopointfive & (3) Easy To Follow

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Tix Picks, Wednesday 04/12/24

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Wednesday's racing comes from Dundalk, Haydock, Kempton, Lingfield & Ludlow.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Haydock...

It has been pretty wet up here in the North West of late and that's generally means one thing at Haydock : heavy ground! And that's how it is for this six-race card that kicks off with...

Leg 1 @ 12.40...East Street has two wins and a place from five efforts over hurdles. Has been chasing for the past two years but now reverts back to the smaller obstacles on the back of two good wins over fences. he runs off the same weight as his last hurdle run/win, which is 7lbs lower than his last run/win over fences.

Kiss My Face showed signs of a return to form when a winner at Worcester in the summer and he was also a three-quarter length runner-up to stablemate Butlers Brief at Bangor at the end of October, but will need to put a poor LTO run at Exeter behind him.

Artic Mann has made the frame in half of his 18 efforts over hurdles to date and was only beaten by just over five lengths at Kelso last time out on his return from a 164-day absence, having won his previous race at Perth and his form since October 2023 reads 233422313, so I expect him to be involved again here.

It's Maisy has made the frame in six of nine over hurdles, winning four times, but a combination of a 5lbs weight rise and a 188-day absence meant that she only managed 6th of 10 at Bangor last time out. She did win her last race before the break, though and today's jockey takes 3lbs off her, so she should be competitive here.

I can make a case for all four of these plus Atomic Angel based on her past performances in the mud, but it's (1) East Street and (7) It's Maisy for me with (5) Artic Mann as the backup.

Leg 2 @ 1.10...White Rhino finished 111212134 in handicap hurdles at 2m4f to 3m1f including a Class 2 success at Cheltenham last December. He made a chase debut at Ayr almost five weeks ago and despite not having raced for 231 days, had enough about him to win by two lengths and should improve for the run.

President Scottie was placed in two of three bumpers in 2023 and made the frame in four of five over hurdles, winning twice including a 25 length success at Ayr over 2m4½f and here at Haydock over three miles. Soft/heavy ground is no issue either.

Heros De Romay is another chase debutant and his overall record on heavy reads 1133. He had a win and a place from his two bumpers and was placed 133 over hurdles, although he was beaten by 28 lengths as 3rd of 8 in a hot race at Cheltenham last time out (January) which was much tougher race than this one.

Beneficially Yours is relatively inexperienced with just three runs under Rules (all over hurdles) behind him, but he di finish 311 in those, winning by 51 and 36 lengths on heavy ground. He's also an Irish PTP winner and represents the locally-favoured McCain yard, but does step up in class here.

The two I like best for this are (3) White Rhino and (6) Beneficially Yours and I've little between the other two, but (4) President Scottie might just offer a bit more value.

Leg 3 @ 1.40...Carrig Kate headed my four-runner shortlist that I drew up for this race last night and was my one to beat, but she was withdrawn this morning, leaving me with just three straight picks and in order of preference, they would be...

(7) Ski Lodge was a runner-up on debut in a heavy ground bumper at Chepstow a year ago and followed that up with a win at the same track, trip and going at the end of January before going back to the shed for 285 days. He probably needed the run on his return but still managed 7th of 15 and with his heavy ground win and the prospect of improving for having had a pipe opener, he'd be my tentative pick in an open-looking but weak race.

(2) Grand Geste too a little while for the penny to drop, but came very close to winning at 200/1 at Carlisle last time out, only being headed on the line. He's by no means reliable to do the same again, but the race lacks depth and appears weaker than that Carlisle one.

(5) Martin Plage made a promising start to his hurdles career when only beaten by eight lengths at Wetherby in mid-October, despite having been off the track for 202 days. He should come on for that run and could well make the frame here.

The danger here might come from the unknown Jo Coko who changed hands for over £100k after winning his sole PTP at Lisronagh back in February.

Leg 4 @ 2.15...I'll split the field in half here and focus on...

(1) Circuit Breaker is the most experienced runner in the field and he won on soft ground over 1m2f on the Flat on debut at Windsor in May 2023. He won on his A/W debut at Kempton (2m) in September 2023 and after changing hands for 260,000 Guineas earlier this year, was an easy 16 lengths winner on his hurdling debut at Kempton 45 days ago, despite a five month break. I expect him to improve further with the run/experience behind him.

(2) Crest Of Fortune won a Class 5 heavy ground bumper at Wincanton on debut a year ago, but a step up to Class 2 proved too much as he was beaten at Newbury next time out. That said, he wasn't disgraced in a 6 length defeat as 5th home of 20 behind the winner Regents Stroll who is now 3 from 3, having since won a Class 3 hurdle at Newbury by ten lengths five weeks ago, whilst Crest Of Fortune also scored next/last time out, getting home by 6.5 lengths at Ffos Las just over three weeks ago. Trip & going should be fine.

(5) Royal Infantry is an interesting one, having won a PTP at Edgcote in April 2023 ahead of an 18-length success on his debut under Rules in a Doncaster bumper back in January of this year. He then stepped up from Class 5 to a Listed bumper on heavy ground at Newbury a month later and won that too before finishing in midfield in the Grade 1 Champion Bumper at this year's Cheltenham Festival. He recently returned from an eight month break to win on hurdles debut at Chepstow and if reproducing his bumper form over hurdles could be a good prospect for the Skeltons.

I do like all three, but I think that (5) Royal Infantry and (2) Crest Of Fortune are the two to go with.

Leg 5 @ 2.45...(1) Empire Steel won a Listed Chase in March 2023 and a Class 2 handicap in February of this year, both at Kelso. He handles the mud well enough and has made the frame in four of his eight runs at trips of 3m½f to 3m1½f, whilst (2) Cloudy Glen is nine without a win since landing the Grade 3 Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury way back in November 2021, but has been plying his trade in better races than this one and was a Class 1 runner-up at Cheltenham just over a year ago. He's something to prove here, but he's 14112 after a break, 113 here at Haydock, he likes the mud and has a stack of supporting stats...

(3) Good Boy Bobby has made the frame in 13 of 22 (7 wins) on soft/heavy ground and although he is winless in six since back to back wins at Chepstow and Sandown in October/November last year, he has finished third in three of those defeats.

Bottom weight and oldest runner at 13yo, (7) Up Helly Aa King Two completes my shortlist for this one. He's a prolific (15 from 24) placer over fences with a 25% career win strike rate in chases and was a winner at Kelso last time out. That was almost eight months ago, mind, and his best form has come off breaks of less than two months so he might need the run.

The lack of a recent run means that I'll omit Up Helly Aa King Two and although Cloudy Glen hasn't won for three years, he'd be the one I fancy here ahead of both Good Boy Bobby and Empire Steel.

Leg 6 @ 3.18...A very open/tricky looking fnale awaits us and cases can be made for most of them, particularly the following...

Blue Fin who won two starts ago on soft ground at Carlisle after a 203-day break and was then only beaten by two lengths there last time out despite a 5lb weight rise. First-time cheekpieces should help today and he's definitely in the mix for me.

Hazy Glen won a heavy ground bumper on debut in October 2023 and made the frame in all three starts over hurdles last season finishing 223, so if race ready after a nine-month break would be a contender for another place at least.

Guard Duty makes a handicap debut off the back of a win and a third of thirteen in a pair of Class 4 Novice Hurdles at Uttoxeter this 'summer'. He also won his debut bumper and Team Lavelle are in pretty good nick right now with 5 winners from 21 over the last fortnight.

Jet Marshall steps up in class and hasn't raced for 671 days, but he did win on handicap debut at Wincanton when last seen. He's also up 3lbs for that win and I think this might be too much for him, but next time out, perhaps?

Bottom weight Haarar won back to back hurdle races at Southwell and Cartmel in May this year and comes here off the back of a soft ground handicap win over 1m6f on the Flat demonstrating that if he jumps well enough, he'll be plenty quick between the flights.

That ground speed from (11) Haarar could well catapult him into the frame and I'm happy to put him on my ticket builder, but I suspect he gets beaten by (5) Guard Duty and (2) Blue Fin, who I have closer to each other than the bookies do!

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) East Street, (7) It's Maisy & (5) Artic Mann

Leg 2: (3) White Rhino, (6) Beneficially Yours & (4) President Scottie

Leg 3: (7) Ski Lodge, (2) Grand Geste & (5) Martin Plage

Leg 4: (5) Royal Infantry & (2) Crest Of Fortune

Leg 5: (2) Cloudy Glen, (3) Good Boy Bobby & (1) Empire Steel

Leg 6: (2) Blue Fin, (5) Guard Duty & (11) Haarar

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Tix Picks, Tuesday 03/12/24

/in /by

Tuesday's racing comes from Clonmel, Lingfield, Southwell & Newcastle.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Newcastle...

And despite the larger pot being offered at Newcastle, I'm reminded that most people prefer the NH to the A/W at this time of year, so we're off to Southwell for the following six races...

Leg 1 @ 12.15...Jaramillo won by 12 lengths over hurdles at 2m4f at Sedgefield in September and was a half length runner-up back over the same course and distance last time out off 9lbs higher and if taking to fences should go well. Theformismighty was an Irish PTP winner and a 15 length winner over hurdles at Market Rasen three starts ago. Finished a solid 4th of 14 on chase debut five weeks ago, beaten by less than six lengths and looks a real player down in class.

Yes Day has made the frame in five of eight starts to date, including a 3rd of 8 on chase debut at Warwick four weeks ago, despite coming off a 222 day absence. The trip is no issue, as he actually stays 3m and he should come on for the run. Awaythelad finished 211 over hurdles in December/January last season before a step up in class/weight stopped him progressing in the spring. He took 203 days off and reappeared to make a good chase debut at Lingfield three weeks ago, where he was 3rd of 11, beaten by just five lengths and the two horses from that race (6th & 8th) who have ran again both made the frame next time out.

Kaituna River completes my shortlist for this one and he's a former Irish PTP winner who has finished 6313 in his four hurdles runs to date, so he comes here in good nick for his chase debut. I'm not sure he has what it takes to win this race just yet, but if transferring his form to fences, could well. His jumping seemed sound in his PTP effort.

The two I like best here are (5) Awaythelad and (3) Theformismighty and any of the other three above could quite well make the frame, so I'll take a chance with (7) Kaituna River for some potential value.

Leg 2 @ 12.45...This isn't a particularly strong race as you'll see by the quality of the ones that I expect to fare better than the others!

Neigh Botha's last seven runs started and ended with course and distance wins; over fences last June and over hurdles a week ago with results of 3P343 in between the two. He reverts back to fences off the same mark as last week's hurdles success and a similar run here should be more than plenty. Extraordinary Man is probably next best, despite a shocking 1 from 20 career record. That said, his sole win was over fences at Hereford eleven months after a 156-day absence. This year, he started again at Hereford and was a solid 4th of 12 after 287 days off and a wind op. His last five read 122P4 and he should come on for the run.

Abaya Du Mathan runs for the 89th time and has a reasonable 12.5% strike rate during his career, making the frame in 40 of 88 races (45.5%). he was a course and distance winner back in January, won at Warwick in April and comes here off the back of two fourth placed finishes. He's no spring chicken at the age of 12 but could be involved off the same mark as his last win. Bottom-weight Haafback is interesting after two poor bumpers (9th of 13 and 9th of 10) were followed by only one decent effort over hurdles (P9920) and after finishing last of eleven at Stratford on his fifth attempt, he went back to the shed for six months. He came back at Ludlow as a 2m chaser almost four weeks ago and pretty much made all to win at the first crack and the experience should benefit him.

Of the four, I think I'll omit the old boy Abaya Du Mathan and use (7) Haafback as my backup to (1) Neigh Botha and (2) Extraordinary Man.

Leg 3 @ 1.15...Berkenshtaaap won a 3m PTP in ireland and was then sold for £45,000 and now makes a yard debut for Olly Murphy, whosr bumper runners have a 21.6% win and 49.4% place strike rate and have 4 wins & 6 places from 21 here at Southwell. Clearisthewater needed three cracks at PTP racing to get off the mark and although not ripping trees up just yet and ran pretty well in a pair of UK bumpers so far. Yard is in good nick and the horse does at least have experience on his side.

Hestina Hill is an interesting debutant for the Skelton yard. He's by Kingston Hill and out of Hestina who won three times over hurdles for this yard and also twice over 1m4f on the Flat. The horse has already been gelded and has had a wind op. Star Artist is a half brother to Urban Artist, a 3-time winner at 1m3f/1m4f and in a couple of bumpers. he ran to a reasonable level on debut at Huntingdon nine months ago, finishing fourth and beaten by less than six lengths and should go well again here.

Of these four, I prefer (1) Berkenshtaaap and (7) Star Artist in equal measures, as will the market probably and I think that whilst Clearisthewater has the ability to outrun a big price (20/1 E/W might not be a bad side bet), (3) Hestina Hill might be a better Plan B.

Leg 4 @ 1.45...Not a great deal to go off here of course, but I've spilt the field in two to concentrate on this half...

Inishnabro is a half-brother to a pair of winning hurdlers and won a PTP by 10 lengths in April. He didn't get near the winner on his hurdles debut three weeks ago, going down by 12L, but he ran well enough to be second of the twelve runners and the fourth placed horse won here over course and distance a week ago. Jordans Cross won his sole PTP by five lengths in March and only went down by half a length on his debut under Rules when a runner-up in a Chepstow bumper four weeks ago.

Law Of The Sea brings plenty of race experience to the table as a former Class 2 stayer on the Flat, but has yet to impress over hurdles. That said, his second effort (5th of 14) at Chepstow five weeks ago was better than his opening effort at Uttoxeter three weeks earlier and similar improvement gives him a chance of making the frame. Le Fauve is possibly/probably the one to beat here. Yet to win a race, but has finished in the frame on three of four starts over hurdles (3523), all in better races than this ie 3rd on debut in an Aintree Listed race, 5th at Grade 2 (Cheltenham) before a Class 3 second and a solid 3rd of 11 at Chepstow eight weeks ago despite coming off a break of 224 days.

Sun Art ran well enough on debut, finish in midfield of a 12-runner bumper at Worcester just seven weeks ago and followed that up by finishing third of twelve on hurdles debut at Market Rasen almost three weeks ago, a place and 1.5 lengths behind the re-opposing Inishnabro and a short head in front of last week's winner Achille Des Rocs. he's probably held by Inishnabro on that run, but shoud still put a decent effort in.

I could easily take all five, but my preferred approach would be (4) Jordans Cross & (6) Le Fauve against the field with (3) Inishnabro a marginal pick over the other two. As an aside, Inishnabro, Sun Art and Law Of The Sea should all be at very backable E/W odds as I expect the market will be keen on Jordans Cross & Le Fauve.

Leg 5 @ 2.15...If anything, the second division of the above race looks weaker than the first to the extent that I was looking at Ben Pauling's newcomer Bank On Frank as a likely placer based on the form of the field. Sadly, he doesn't run and my shortlist is down to two, possibly three runners...

I suspect this is a two-way battle between the top two on the card Daytime Dreaming and Disguisedlimit. Daytime Dreaming was second on his sole PTP outing nine months ago and made a promising start under Rules when 4th of 10 over hurdles at Uttoxeter just over six weeks ago. That looked a tougher/deeper race than this one and the winner, runner-up, third and fifth from that race have all re-appeared to make the frame since.

Disguisedlimit was a five length winner on his sole PTP effort back in April and finished third of ten over hurdles at Chepstow almost two months ago on his Rules debut. he looked unsettled that day and despite leading until 3 out faded out of contention to finish 44 lengths behind the winner. He'll wear a hood here to help settle him and the runner-up from that race has since won by 29 lengths at Market Rasen.

I'm just going to take this pair, but if you wanted a longshot, then Portcammon might (or might not!) be better than a price higher than 20/1 would suggest. He won a bumper on debut for Willie Mullins in August 2023 and was 4th in another a year later before finishing 7th of 20 on his hurdles debut. All of which seemed reasonable if slow progress, but that was his last run for the Mullins yard and he didn't shine on his debut for new handlers when beaten by 57 lengths at Newbury four weeks ago, so his price will reflect his lack of reliability, but this is a poor race, so who knows?

Leg 6 @ 2.45...Craven Bay is 1121 since moving to his current yard and stepping up to trips beyond 3m. he does carry a 7lb penalty for a win at Kempton eight days ago, but he seemed comfortable when scoring by the best part of four lengths so should be in the mix once more. Space Voyage finished 14111 from June '22 to April '23 and then seemed to labour off higher marks up in class before a drop to a rating of 117 saw her win by a neck at Perth in April. She was then 5th of 14 at Aintree before a six month break. Her return just over three weeks ago was a 7.5 length defeat in mid-field of a 12-runner Wincanton contest, but she is now back on her last winning mark.

Toonagh Warrior is a consistent placer over hurdles, making the frame in 6 of 10 starts, including last time out, when beaten here at Southwell over a trip half a mile shorter than today. He's never been asked to go beyond 2m4½f but always gives it his all, rarely runs a bad race and finished 3212 in the last quarter of 2023, so goes well at this time of year. Form horse Mr Hope Street is another tackling 3m+ for the first time, but his form over 2m4f/2m5f in his last three outings reads 112 and was only denied a hat-trick at Carlisle last time out by half a length as he came back from a five month break. Those last three runs were much better than his 2m/2m1f form (457508) and he may well be that another step up in trip is the way forward.

Tzarmix completes my shortlist today and he's one of those consistent but not quite there types. I don't think he's that far away from putting some good runs together and he did win and place at 2m4f/2m5½f in the spring of 2023 before seeming to lose his way in handicaps off marks around 115/116, but he did go well last time out after dropping to a mark of 107 and was a solid 3rd of 11 at Wetherby seven weeks ago. More improvement is needed off that same mark here, but he does get weight from most of the field.

And I think I'll have (1) Craven Bay & (6) Mr Hope Street as my two main picks from this one with with consistent perma-placer (3) Toonagh Warrior the backup plan.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (5) Awaythelad, (3) Theformismighty & (7) Kaituna River

Leg 2: (1) Neigh Botha. (2) Extraordinary Man & (7) Haafback

Leg 3: (1) Berkenshtaaap, (7) Star Artist & (3) Hestina Hill

Leg 4: (4) Jordans Cross, (6) Le Fauve & (3) Inishnabro

Leg 5: (2) Daytime Dreaming & (3) Disguisedlimit

Leg 6: (1) Craven Bay, (6) Mr Hope Street & (3) Toonagh Warrior

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Tix Picks, Monday 02/12/24

/in /by

Monday's racing comes from Ffos Las, Plumpton & Wolverhampton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Wolverhampton...

I do tend to just play the card with the highest guaranteed pot, but heavy ground was forecasted at Ffos Las which was more interesting and became my plan last night.
Sadly the Welsh track failed an inspection this morning making me glad I hadn't done analysis early! We'll revert back to following the money and head to Wolverhampton's tapeta for six races starting with...

Leg 1 @ 4.30...(1) Poetic Force has five wins and four places from nineteen here at Wolverhampton and has been the runner-up at Brighton eight weeks ago and here at Wolverhampton nine days ago on his last two runs and should go well again. (5) Dayman hasn't won for some time and has dropped to a mark some 17lbs lower than his last win. He's a former course and distance winner, who ran well around this time last year and his yard do well with runners coming back from a break.

(7) Snooze Lane rarely runs a bad race, so can be excused finishing 6th of 9 here over 1m½f last time out. He was denied a run and got bumped about a bit and the end result was that he failed to be in the first four home for only the second time in twelve starts. He's generally reliable and consistent and should bounce back here. (8) Yoshimi was third at Southwell most recently (a month ago) backing up a nice win at Chelmsford and should be a player here a pound lower than his last run.

The in-form (9) Gilt Edge has three wins and two places from eight starts in 2024 and won here over course and distance by a head last time out despite coming from off the pace. She finished strongly that day and if she gets going a little sooner today, there's no reason why she can't at least make the frame. I suspect she might have to play second fiddle to Poetic Force, but she's going on my ticket, as is Yoshimi.

Leg 2 @ 5.00...(3) Lady Wingalong has made the frame in ten of twelve starts in 2024, winning three times in total, the latest being at Lingfield eleven days ago when she ran on well to lead inside the final furlong, eventually getting home by a length and a quarter. She looked to still have something in hand and although up 3lbs for that latest win and up 18lbs all year, she's still the one to best for me.
(6) Mokaatil usually runs over 6f, but has previously made the frame here over course and distance. He's a consistent sort who is kept very busy, as 24 runs in 2024 will testify, Like the runner above, he has 3 wins and 7 places from his last 12 and he runs off his last winning mark.

(9) A Pint Of Bear will probably attempt to make all off a mark 2lbs lower than when only denied by a shorthead here over course and distance in early October and if afforded the chance to lead could well make the frame yet again, but he'd be an unlikely winner for me and I suspect he finishes behind both the two horses named above and also the bottom weight (11) Plumette who has gone well of late, finishing 423 here at Wolverhampton in his three starts since re-joining David Loughnane's yard, for whom she did win over course and distance during his first spell and off much higher marks. She seems most at home here with this trainer and could have a big say off a feather weight.

Leg 3 @ 5.30...I can't help but think that this should be a two-horse shootout between the top two in the weights, (1) Georginio and (2) Patrol in a race low on depth and quality.

Georginio is noted as a fast finisher and drops in class here representing a yard whose runners have made the frame in 6 off 11 starts over the last fortnight. The horse has made the frame in two of his last three, whilst looking like needing further than the 7f/1m he has been running at. This trip should be a better test.

Patrol didn't really show for William Haggas, but was a good second of twelve on his yard debut for Dylan Cunha six weeks ago, going down by just a length and a half. Pine Cliffs was fourth that day, a further 4.5 lengths back, but he won at Chelmsford next time out which is a positive.

If you wanted a third pick, then (8) Sol Argent showed some promise on his A/W debut and first time in a handicap when also second of twelve last time out. That was here at Wolverhampton over a trip a furlong shorter than today. He was five lengths behind the odds on favourite, but he field was fairly strung out behind him, so he could place again.

Leg 4 @ 6.00...As with the previous race, my shortlist is only three runners deep ie (2) Capla Lazarus, (7) Steps In Time and (10) Waiting In Love. If truth be told, I've little on my own notes to separate the thtee, but Capla might just be slightly weaker, although there's liitle in it for me.

Capla Lazarus has the benefit of a 7lb claimer as he makes his A/W debut after a couple of decent efforts at Beverley and Nottingham over similar trips to this one. Steps In Time's sole outing saw him finish as a runner-up over this course and distance three weeks ago finishing strongly to take second late on in a 1.75 length defeat to a 4/11 favourite, whilst Waiting For Love will be hoping to go one better than when second of six sent off as an 11/8 fav on debut at Chelmsford eighteen days ago where the more experienced Space Trooper had too much late speed for him over 7f. The step up in trip (his dam won over a mile) should help here.

Leg 5 @ 6.30...(1) Oakley Boy won for the sceond time in four A/W starts when landing a 5f sorint at Lingfield eleven days ago in a first-time visor, but has also won at xchelmsford over today's trip. The visor remains and he's only up 3lbs, so in with a shout again. (2) Chuti Manika drops in class after a near three length defeat over this trip on soft ground at Doncaster and his trainer/jockey work well together (12 wins and 12 further places from 50 over the last year). he has won over 7f Catterick, but usually finds one 9or more) a bit too good for him, despite rarely getting beaten by far.

(4) Jane Garfield is a nother consistent type who doeshn't win often enough, or not yet (0/7 so far) in her case. She 4th of 12 over courde and distance last time out, beaten by less then three quarters of a length and goes again off the same mark. She'll be there or thereabouts as alsways, but she's just missing something, whereas (8) Piranha Rama has yet to finish outside of the first three home in seven Nurseries this year, winning three times including at Chelmsford last time out, where she gamely stayed on to win by a neck. She's up 3lbs for that run, making this tougher, but she's the one to beat for me.

The last one in my considerations is (11) Dubai Magic who was third in that Chelmsford race won by Piranha Rama, beaten by just over half a length. She's now 3lbs better off with the winner and that should make this a tight affair. Dubai Magic has raced here before, going down by just a nose over 5f at the end of September when the line just came a little too soon for her flying finish.

So, it's (8) Piranha Rama, (1) Oakley Boy & (11) Dubai Magic for me here.

Leg 6 @ 7.00...(1) Dance Time was a runner-up at Southwell over 1m4f three starts ago and looked like needing further, which she got when asked to run 2m½f here at Wolverhampton last time out. In truth, that trip seemed to stretch her but she stuck to the task and stayed on well to win by a neck and should be suited by a drop back to 1m6f here. She's down in class and her yard has 10 placers from 21 over the last 30 days. Conor Planas claims 3lbs here and he has ridden 10 of those 21 races, winning 3 times and placing in 2 more.

(7) Black Smoke comes from a yard with 15 placers from 28 over the last 30 days and he himself was third of ten over course and distance last time out taking his C&D record to 2 wins and four places from nine starts (248131353) this year.

(10) Alex The Great was also third of ten over course and distance on his last run despite going off as the 2/1 fav and will need to step his game up off a 3lb higher mark if he's to win here. He did, however, win over today's trip on Southwell's Tapeta two starts ago off 2lbs lower, the same mark as when a C&D runner-up here in September, so I wouldn't rule him out completely, as goes for the recently winless but consistent (11) Swinging London. He is admittedly tough to back on a run of 27 defeats in all codes and with a 0 from 9 record on the A/W, so you might think I've lost my mind suggesting him as an option, but he has finished 322 in his last three taking advantage of a falling (but unchanged here) mark. I suspect he'll be involved yet again here, but I certainly don't advocate backing him to win and I'm not sure he'd be my second fav here.

For me, Dance Time should be winning this and aside from that, it looks a bit of a bunfight for the places. The three I've mentioned should all go well, as could several others, but I'm taking all four above and hoping for the best!

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Poetic Force, (9) Gilt Edge & (8) Yoshimi

Leg 2: (3) Lady Wingalong, (6) Mokaatil & (11) Plumette

Leg 3: (1) Georginio, (2) Patrol & (8) Sol Argent

Leg 4: (10) Waiting In Love, (7) Steps In Time & (2) Capla Lazarus

Leg 5: (8) Piranha Rama, (1) Oakley Boy & (11) Dubai Magic

Leg 6: (1) Dance Time, (7) Black Smoke, (10) Alex The Great & (11) Swinging London

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck, as always!
Chris

Tix Picks, Saturday 30/11/24

/in /by

Saturday's racing comes from Doncaster, Fairyhouse, Newbury & Newcastle.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a huge £150,000 placepot guarantee at Newbury in addition to a guarantee of £50k at Newcastle...

I do like to be in for a penny, in for a pound, so let's head for the soft ground at Newbury for six races, starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.07...The bookies seem to think that this is a four-horse race and I'd be inclined to agree with them.

(1) Sansrisk comes here seeking a hurdles hat-trick having won a Grade 3 race at Down Royal at the start of the month. That race probably wasn't the best Gr 3 you'll see, but she does technically drop in class here and is clearly in good nick. Had a win and a place in her last two bumpers before that pair of hurdles wins too and her jockey is flying right now, making the frame in 36 (50.7%) of his 71 rides over the last month, winning 18 times (25.4%)

(2) Listentoyourheart also comes here seeking a hat-trick of her own after wins at Classes 4 and 2. She also had a win and two silvers from four bumpers and was a very creditable 5th of 16 in a Grade 2 bumper at this year's Aintree Festival. Her most recent win was over today's course and distance and she loos like a horse on the rise.

(4) Jubilee Alpha was a runner-up in that Aintree bumper above three lengths ahead of Listentoyourheart, which suggests that she might go well here today, but we'd have to take both her fitness and her hurdling on trust as she hasn't raced since then, nor has she raced over hurdles, as her only other previous run was a two-length success in a Class 5 bumper at Wincanton ten months ago. Mind you, she's trained by Paul Nicholls, so you know she'll have been well schooled.

(9) Walkadina completes the shortlist here and comes here off the back of both a recent run and a win over hurdles, achieved in an easy 13 lengths success at Uttoxeter four weeks ago despite not having raced for 191 days. It wasn't a great race (Class 4), but the distant runner-up has since won by 11 lengths at the same grade.

Walkadina has every right to improve for her last run, but I feel that she's starting from a lower point than the other three I mentioned, so she's the one to miss out, sadly.

Leg 2 @ 12.40...This looks like a race likely to be dominated by the top half of the card and top weight (1) Fidelio Vallis comes here off the back of a win last time out and a last four form form line reading 2241 since moving to his current yard, all of which is good, but he hasn't raced since winning on New Year's Day and is up 6lbs for that four length success. (2) Le Milos races off a mark 2lbs lower than when he won a Class 1 handicap at this meeting back in 2022, which at the time was his fourth win in five races. A hike in weight put paid to further wins and he has finished 2030075 since, but now finally drops back to a weight we know he can win off, if the old ability is still there.

(3) Twinjets started his chase career this time last year with a decent third of nine at Ascot followed up by a win at Doncaster in December. He looked like needing the run after 288 days off when 5th of 11 at Chepstow last month, but was unlucky to bump into a progressive type last out, finishing second here at Newbury over 2m4f and I suspect the step back up in trip will help. (4) Inch House finished 431 over hurdles before showing a similar progression over fences last year season finishing 3112 before a couple of disappointments. He was only 4th of 5, beaten by 57 lengths here at Newbury over 2m7½f in February and then fell at the first fence at Ayr in April and hasn't been seen since, moving yards during the layoff. Has ability for sure, but probably neds a run to get the confidence back.

(5) Highstakesplayer is a consistent sort having made the frame in 11 of his 16 (3 x NHF, 7 x hrds & 6 x chs) outings, but his chase form is easily the best of the three codes with results reading 111P12 with that run probably his best, finishing as a three length runner-up in a decent Class 1 handicap at Ascot four weeks ago. That was his first run for 194 days, so he should strip fitter for that and he now drops in class. He's only up a pound for that run and has to be considered, as does (6) Genois who generally tends to be there or thereabouts, making the frame in 10 of 19 starts so far, culminating in a Class handicap win at Wetherby at the start of the month despite the 2m3½f trip probably being a bit too sharp for him. He beat the runner-up Galop de Chasse by three lengths that day and that horse was a decent enough third of nine here yesterday.

You can make a case for any of those, but my 1-2-3 would be (3) Twinjets, (5) Highstakesplayer & (6) Genois.

Leg 3 @ 1.15...(1) Califet En Vol made the frame in a five-length defeat on debut in an Ayr bumper in April and then went back to the shed for 205 days before reappearing for a hurdling debut at Kempton 19 days ago, where he absolutely breezed up, winning over today's trip by some fifteen lengths and looks to be another talent off the Nicky Henderson conveyor belt.

(4) The New Lion also only has two runs under his belt and his yard have high hopes for him after a 5.5 length win in a bumper at Market Rasen back in April was eventually followed up 202 days later with a win on hurdle debut at Chepstow a month ago, where he won by five lengths pulling further clear as the line approached. Since that run, the eighth-placed horse has finished 3rd of 8 back over that Chepstow course and distance and the horse in ninth was a 13 length winner at Hereford 18 days ago.

(5) French Ship finished 421 in bumpers, was second on hurdles debut and then won an eleven-runner Class 4 maiden at Chepstow earlier in the month, beating Let It Rain by just over two lengths. These two were some 17 lengths clear of the third placed horse who beat the fourth by 13 lengths. The third has since been a runner-up at Doncaster, whilst Let It Rain won at Wetherby three days ago and whilst all this is good, my preferred option is to take (4) The New Lion to beat (1) Califet En Vol here

Leg 4 @ 1.54...(5) Impose Toi is a model of consistency, making the frame in all seven starts to date, winning a pair of Class 4 handicaps and at Class 3 along the way. He was unlucky not to land a big Class 1 handicap at Ascot last December when he hit the penultimate hurdle and lost ground, resulting in him going down by just a neck and he was a decent 3rd of 19 at Kempton last time in this grade.

(8) Inthewaterside is another consistent sort, whose only failure to make the frame in his seven outings was a five length defeat in this grade at Ascot a year ago. Since that run, he won a Class 3 handicap at Lingfield, was a Class 2 runner-up at Ascot in mid-February and was a solid third of nineteen in a Class 1 handicap at this year's Aintree Festival five lengths behind Kateira who won a Listed race last week. Has had a wind op whilst away from the track and I expect more this season from this one.

(9) Issam is a danger here back up in trip after a creditable 4th of 10 over 2m at Ffos Las on his seasonal reappearance seven weeks ago. This trip should really suit him better as his form over 2m3f to 2m4f reads 2131201. His mark of 129 might not leave much room for error, as his last win was only by a length and a quarter off 125 at a lower class than this, so he'd need things to fall his way, but he should still be in the hunt for a place.

(11) Guard The Moon completes my shortlist as yet another consistent progressive type who always seems to be on the premises. he won two of his three bumper outings and has finished 322112 over hurdles, winning at both Classes 4 and 3. He stepped up to Class 2for the first time at Aintree three weeks ago and went really well for most of the race before being headed between the penultimate and last hurdles, eventually finishing second of nine, 2.5 lengths behind Harbour Lake who went well again three days ago. 3m1f at Aintree seemed to stretch Guard The Moon and the drop back in trip should be a bonus here.

All four stand a really good chance of at least a place, but they can't all finish in the first three and whilst there's not much between them, I'm omitting Issam.

Leg 5 @ 2.25...(1) Salver won his first four over hurdles including a Grade 2 at Chepstow last Christmas and was a decent third of twelve in this year's Gr1 Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Hasn't been seen since, so might need the run, but if ready, should go well. (3) Our Champ has won two of his last four, both in Class 2 handicaps, the latest just four weeks ago at Ascot, so he's in good nick. He is up 5lbs to a career-high mark, but he might not quite be done yet.

(4) Jeriko Du Reponet can be hit (3 from 3 to start his career) or miss (pulled up in each of his last/subsequent two), but on his day he's a smart hurdler who won a Grade 2 at Doncaster back in January. In his defence the two pull-ups were (i) at the Cheltenham Festival in a grade 1 and (ii) over fences at Sandown three weeks ago after eight months off track. I suspect that effort over fences was just to get some yards into his legs and open the airways and he could/should do better here.

(5) Queens Gamble is in sparking form, after two wins and a place from four bumpers, this 6yo mare is 3 from 3 over hurdles and was a Listed class winner at Taunton last time out. The only thing that might be an issue is race fitness, as she hasn't raced since that win at Taunton some eleven months ago. (7) Ooh Betty completes my shortlist for this one, even though I could have suggested another few! She's another 6yo mare in good form who from this time of year last year finished 11232 over hurdles with a a Listed class runner-up finish at Cheltenham in April ending her season. She returned to action after 206 days off to land a Class 3 handicap at Sandown three weeks ago and despite a 6lbs rise, should go well again today.

Easy to say back all of them, but my preference would be for (5) Queens Gamble to take this. I'm happy tog take a chance on getting the right version of (4) Jeriko Du Reponet and the value play is (3) Our Champ who for me is very viable 20/1 E/W option in a race paying four places for thirteen runners.

Leg 6 @ 3.00...It's a really open looking race and I think I'll take two of those towards the sharp end of the market and two longer priced chances. The two from the top would be (3) Senior Chief and (12) Victtorino. The former has made the frame in 9 of 10 starts and won a Class 2 handicap in first-time cheekpieces at Cheltenham last month off the back of a seven month break, whilst the latter was very good this time last year and I'm hoping lightning strikes twice. He returned from a 223-day absence to win a Class 1 handicap at Ascot in November, before repeating the feat seven weeks later over the same course and distance and if he starts this season (after 263 days off) in the same vein, he might be tough to ignore.

My two longer shots at this would be (5) Colonel Harry and (1) Sam Brown. The Colonel represents last year's winning trainer and jockey and has a similar kind of profile to stablemate Datsalrightgino. he was a Listed class runner-up at Carlisle four weeks ago off the back of a seven month break and was Grade 2 winner over fences at Wetherby back in January, so clearly has something about him, whilst Sam Brown is a bit more of a left-field outside the box pick. He's the 12 yr old top weight with stacks of experience. he has won here before, relishes the softer ground, has won at both Gr 1 and Gr 2 and was only beaten by less than five lengths at Grade 2 last time out. That was at Wetherby four weeks ago coming off a six month break and ther might just be one (or two) big run left in the old boy.

I'm going to take all four in a belt and braces approach!

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Listentoyourheart, (1) Sansrisk & (4) Jubilee Alpha

Leg 2: (3) Twinjets, (5) Highstakesplayer & (6) Genois

Leg 3: (4) The New Lion & (1) Califet En Vol

Leg 4: (5) Impose Toi, (8) Inthewaterside & (11) Guard The Moon

Leg 5: (5) Queens Gamble, (4) Jeriko Du Reponet & (3) Our Champ

Leg 6: (3) Senior Chief, (5) Colonel Harry, (12) Victtorino & (1) Sam Brown

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

The best of luck to you all and I hope you have a great weekend.
Chris

 

Tix Picks, Thursday 28/11/24

/in /by

Thursday's racing comes from Lingfield, Musselburgh, Taunton and Thurles.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Taunton...

Taunton looks a bit novice-heavy for my liking, so let's head to Lingfield and some soft ground for six races starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.35... (1) Chankaya probably needed the run at Uttoxeter four weeks ago when only 10th of 11 on his debut for Tim Vaughan, having ended last season eight months earlier with a win at Taunton. Should put up a better show 2lbs and one class lower and with the benefit of having had a recent run. (3) Just Chasing May looks like a horse on the up and has finished as a runner-up in both races this term since coming back from a 130-day break that followed his five length win at Uttoxeter in mid-June and he looks the one to beat here.

(5) Twp Stori is another who probably needed to pipes clearing out when running for the first time on over five months at Uttoxeter six weeks ago. That time he was a creditable 5th of 14, beaten by 8 lengths over an inadequately short 2 mile trip. Prior to thar break/run, he had finished 3212 over longer trips. he stays 3m2f, he gets soft/heavy ground and runs off the same mark as when second at Uttoxeter over 3m on his penultimate outing. (8) Getaway With You completes my shortlist here, despite being a 13-race maiden over hurdles. The truth is that he flopped when sent off as the 3/1 favourite in a 14-runner handicap over 3m1½f at Huntingdon at the start of the month, finishing 8th, 21 lengths adrift of the winner, but his previous form had read 3262 and he's down in trip here.

That said, Getaway With You makes the least appeal of the four and I'm going with (3) Just Chasing May & (5) Twp Story with (1) Chankaya my alternate.

Leg 2 @ 1.10...I was really interested in Plantaroma when I had a cursory look at the card last night, but she's a non-runner now, effectively making this all about the hat-trick seeking (5) Jasmine Bliss, who comes here after a soft ground Class 4 bumper win and another on heavy ground at Class 2 last time out. We'll assume she can jump (Harry Derham is no mug), so the only possible issue is her fitness after nine months off.

(9) Solid Silver is probably the one most likely to challenge of those with racecourse experience, also on hurdles debut. She made the frame in a Listed bumper almost a year ago and was in the frame in back to back 2m A/W handicaps this summer and was only beaten by a length and a half here at Lingfield over 2m last time out, albeit on the polytrack. Like the main pick, we take a chance on her jumping, but she possesses decent ground speed

We should also take a newcomer and the eye catcher is (10) Holloway Queen who was a runner-up in her sole PTP race, beaten by just a length at Monks Grange. She was then sold for the thick end of 200,000 Euro and when you see the names De Boinville & Henderson, there's always a chance and she might well be better than Solid Silver!

Leg 3 @ 1.45...This isn't a strong race by any means and despite an 8lb rise, top weight (1) Vision De Maine should be the one to beat, as he comes here seeking a hat-trick after winning over 3m at Uttoxeter on his chase debut six weeks ago despite coming off a six month break before a course and distance success here sixteen days ago. (2) Airtothethrone has only won one of thirteen over fences, but generally tends to be there or thereabouts, finishing 42F4F2324 since the start of March '23, mainly at trips similar to today (but does stay 3m3f) and mainly at Class 4 (so he drops in class here). he handles soft ground well enough and could well be in the mix once more today.

(4) Aworkinprogress also comes here on a hat-trick after a pair of heavy ground successes over 2m6f/2m7f. He won a Class 4 handicap hurdle at the end of March at Fontwell, then had 205 days off before scoring on his chase debut at Stratford almost six weeks ago and I fully expect him to go well again here. (5) Camulus completes my shortlist and he's another with a poor record from a win perspective, coming here at 0/1 in bumpers, 0/4 over hurdles and 0/4 over fences, but he was third on chase debut at Fakenham in February 2023 and a runner-up here over course and distance off the back of a year off in February this year. he gets soft/heavy ground, he gets today's trip and his 266 days off are shorter than the last long break he had! Throw in a couple of paced efforts over hurdles and there's a chance, albeit small, that he's involved here today.

Of those four above, Camulus is probably the one I should omit, leaving me with (1) Vision De Maine, (4) Aworkinprogress & (2) Airtothethrone as my 1-2-3.

Leg 4 @ 2.20...(2) Nachtgeist made the frame on the Flat in a Group 2 race at Cologne in June 2023 and was a runner-up over hurdles at Huntingdon in early October. Didn't go quite as well at Ascot last time out, but this race shouldn't take much winning and he was a runner-up at Plumpton in a 2-mile hurdle on soft ground in January, so the underfoot conditions shouldn't be an issue. (2) Speiriuil probably needed the run when only 7th of 18 at Chepstow three weeks ago, coming off the back of a six month absence. He's entitled to come on for having had the run and when you consider that his other five appearances resulted in finishes of 32242 on mainly soft and/or heavy ground, you'd have to expect him to enjoy this one.

(6) Stardhem was a nose ahead of Speiriuil in that race at Chepstow, as he made his handicap debut after an absence of 201 days. He should also improve for having had that run and the benefit of handicap experience and Ben Pauling's runners always command respect, especially here at Lingfield where his handicap hurdlers have finished 181121. Stardhem is 2lbs better off with Speiriuil today and although his form line doesn't scream winner, there's no reason why he can't confirm the placings with that slight weight advantage.

(7) The Cox Express is probably the one most likely to challenge the trio above, but he's going to have to step up a long way from last time out, when he too ran in that afore-mentioned race at Chepstow 22 days ago, finishing just 11th of 18 and 33 lengths further back than Speiriuil. That said, he had been off the track for six months and did make the frame in three of his last four runs last spring. he has gone well in the mud previously, but I think he's going to need things to fall his way to make the first three home today, so I'm with (6) Stardhem, (2) Nachtgeist & (2) Speiriuil.

Leg 5 @ 2.55...This one has fallen apart somewhat with five of the original fourteen runners now not lining up. The ones I'd be most interested here would be (2) De Kingpin and (6) Miller Spirit

De Kingpin drops in class here after a decent effort at Sandown on hurdles debut 18 days ago, finishing 3rd of 8, beaten by just a length and a half some 252 days after a runner-up finish on race debut in a heavy ground Doncaster bumper. I mentioned Ben Pauling's Lingfield hurdlers earlier and I'd expect this one to be on the premises too.

The main danger should come from Miller Spirit on his hurdling debut. Ground speed won't be an issue for a 4yo whose form on the Flat over the last six months reads 114241116 with that last defeat not as bad as it seems with it being the 23-runner, Class 2, November handicap at Doncaster where he was beaten by less than three lengths 19 days ago. He's clearly fit, his last five runs have been on soft or heavy ground and his yard won this race in 2022.

Elsewhere there's little appeal, so I'll just take these two.

Leg 6 @ 3.30...And the finale has been decimated too with only 8 of 15 going to post and the one I was most interested in (Dromlac Jury) is one of the withdrawal. Another of my overnight shortlist, Ascension Day, also won't run here, so I'm left with just three of my 'originals', namely (4) Barest Of Margins, (5) Hokelami & (6) Superstylin, so I'll be taking this trio.

Barest of Margins is a perennial placer despite being an 11-race (2 x NHF, 2 x hrds & 7 x chase) maiden. He has failed to complete twice, but his other nine races have seen him finish 24 in bumpers, 33 over hurdles and 22232 over fences. he was only beaten by two lengths last time out, headed in the last half of seventeen furlongs, so the drop in trip should help here off the same mark.

Hokelami looked like needing a run when 5th of 8 at Ffos Las last month off the back of a 202-day absence, but he had won two of his four handicap chases this year prior to his break, including a nine lengths success over 2m1f at Sedgefield on soft ground in March. He is, admittedly, still 5lbs higher than that win and has every right/chance of bouncing back into the frame here, but the one to beat is possibly/probably Superstylin.

Superstylin actually won this race last year by 4.5 lengths on his chase debut. He was then rested for three months before racing three times inside four weeks last March finishing 323 with the first two on soft ground. If he returns in the same vein after an eight month break, he's be the one to beat for me with my 1-2-3 reading (6) Superstylin, (4) Barest Of Margins & (5) Hokelami

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (3) Just Chasing May, (5) Twp Story & (1) Chankaya

Leg 2: (5) Jasmine Bliss, (10) Holloway Queen & (9) Solid Silver

Leg 3: (1) Vision De Maine, (4) Aworkinprogress & (2) Airtothethrone

Leg 4: (6) Stardhem, (2) Nachtgeist & (4) Speiriuil

Leg 5: (2) De Kingpin & (6) Miller Spirit

Leg 6: (6) Superstylin, (4) Barest Of Margins & (5) Hokelami

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, everyone!
Note : I'm off tomorrow (out tonight!), so I'll be back on Saturday.
Chris

Tix Picks, Wednesday 27/11/24

/in /by

Wednesday's racing comes from Dundalk, Hereford, Market Rasen and Wetherby.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Market Rasen...

And we'll follow the money and head to Lincolnshire and Market Rasen's good to soft/soft ground for six races starting with...

Race 1 @ 12.05...Top-weight Catchim finished 42P423 in PTP races before winning by 2¼ lengths on his debut under Rules at Southwell over a trip of 2m4½f where he jumped pretty well after a clumsy effort at the first. That run will stand him in good stead, of course, but he's carrying a 7lb penalty for that win and has been off the track for 169 days.

I think he's probably still good enough to make the frame, but this race is surely all about Tripoli Flyer, who won a Class 2 bumper at Lingfield in January and was a one-length runner-up to stable mate Horaces Pearl in a Grade 2 bumper at the Aintree Festival with subsequent Grade 2 hurdle winner Valgrand three lengths further back. Tripoli Flyer's hurdling debut saw him finish as a runner-up again at Chepstow three weeks ago after seven months off track. He should come on for the run and it's hard to imagine him not winning this.

Best of the rest are probably the expensive (140,000 Euro) Queens Wish, a 6 lengths winner on her sole PTP run and Bennetshill, who was a well beaten second of four at Southwell twelve days ago, but it's just (6) Tripoli Flyer & (1) Catchim for me here.

Race 2 @ 12.40...This race has somewhat fallen apart overnight with half of the six-runner field being withdrawn. Of the three that do run, Brave Jen brings the best recent form to the table, having finished 231 in her last three, getting off the mark at the fourteenth (!) time of asking at Sedgefield three weeks ago.

The fact that she was 0/13 at the start of the month says how poor this race is. Traveling Soldier was beaten by 53 and 57 lengths in his last two outings and Chief Sunday went down by 26 lengths at Aintree a month ago.

I'm not being caught out in a 3-runner race, though, so all three go on my ticket builder with Brave Jen just about the least worst of the three and Chief Sunday the biggest threat on handicap debut down two classes and three furlongs.

Race 3 @ 1.15...Camino Rocio is 2 from 2 since moving to Jim and Suzi Best's yard and being fitted with a visor and although he's up 6lbs for his win at Huntingdon a fortnight ago, he's surely the one to beat here. Elsewhere Knocknagappagh returns from seven months off hoping to recapture the form that saw her finish as a runner-up three times inside five starts last winter, whilst Sadlers Bay comes back from a 10-month break hoping to pick up where he left with finishes of 34223 in his last five outings.

Stuti makes a chase debut after a win and four places from nine starts in bumper/hurdles races, having made the frame in three of her last four and her yard is 2 from 2 in Market Rasen chases this year. Dunworley returns from a near seven month absence, but the penny seemed to be finally dropping for him last time out when third home at Huntingdon, whilst Goguenard returns from a similar lay-off to make his chase debut. He returned to action last January after a year off the track and finished 1121 in his first four starts after the break, so if adapting tot he bigger obstacles, the time off might not as much of an issue.

That said, this shouldn't be too hard to win and I expect (6) Camino Rocio to complete a one-month hat-trick for the Bests. (3) Sadlers Bay is probably my second choice with (4) Stuti the back-up plan.

Race 4 @ 1.50...I think I'd have been on Skyjack Hijack here to complete a sixth win on the bounce, but both he and in-form West To The Bridge were withdrawn this morning forcing me into a rethink, which has led me initially to (2) Harbour Lake who has 5 wins and 3 places from 14 over hurdles, won by 2.5 lengths after a six month break at Aintree 18 days ago and was a winner here back in October 2022 on his only previous visit. His jockey is 5 from 15 here over the last year and has made the frame in 11 of 23 rides over the last fortnight, whilst the yard's 26 runners in that fortnight have a 50% place strike rate.

Elsewhere, Supreme Gift probably needed the run after 192 days off when 7th of 12 at Cheltenham a month ago, but he had ended his last campaign with results reading 213 all in a visor that he wears again today. What A Johnny is steady if unspectacular and has only failed to finish ion the first three home once in his six efforts over hurdles so far, winning at both Stratford on debut a year ago and at Perth in April. He also looked like needing the run last time out when finishing weakly at Carlisle.

Bottom weight Giovanni Change is interesting, this 9yo has been around the block a few times and on a positive note has 4 wins and 2 places from 11 hurdles races over 2m5f to 3m here at Market Rasen and is the only course and distance winner in the pack. He's also 9lbs lower than his last winning mark and has a 5lb claimer on board too, but he comes here after finishing last of 12 over 2m1f at Carlisle, 20 lengths behind the winner and was only 8th of 9 here over course and distance last time out, beaten by some 68 lengths.

If we get last season's Giovanni Change, then 20/1 price ticket looks massive, but I suspect we'll get this August's runner instead, so I'll take (2) Harbour Lake to beat (8) What A Johnny here with (3) Supreme Gift as the alternate, but don't be afraid of putting Giovanni Change on your tickets, you never know!

Race 5 @ 2.25...Fantastic Lady is joint best-off at the weights and won this race two years ago. She hasn't raced for seven months just as she hadn't when winning here back in 2022 and did land a Grade 2 contest at Sandown last time out. Apple Away was second and then third in Grade 2 chases at the start of the year and landed a Listed event at Perth two starts ago back in April. He probably needed the run after six months off when 4th of 7 at Kelso a month ago and we should remember that he's a Grade 1 hurdle winner.

Marsh Wren is 12113 over fences so far and was a solid third of nine in a Grade 2 at this year's Cheltenham Festival having won a 2m6f Thurles Listed contest three weeks earlier. That 2m6f is the longest she has raced, so she's unproven/untested at 3m+. La Renommee is two from four in handicap chases this year and was a runner-up in back to back Listed chases in December/January last season. She'd be a surprise winner here, I think, but she should be involved in the shake-up.

Sire Nomine's career consists of six Hunter Chase runs, where she has finished 312111, culminating in her landing the Festival Challenge Cup at this year's Cheltenham Festival. She hasn't raced since then and this is a step up in quality, so whilst there's no doubting her ability, she might be one for next time out.

Tough call here, but my 1-2 would be (1) Fantastic Lady & (3) Marsh Wren

Race 6 @ 3.00...Anytrixwilldo has only tackled fences twice so far and looked like he was getting the hang of it last time out when beaten by not much more than teo lengths at Hereford a fortnight ago and a similar run puts him in contention for at least a place here off the same mark. Percy Veering has had a third wind op, but ran really well immediately after each of his previous two including over this course and distance in March 2023. More recently he was a faller at Wincanton in January and well beaten by 36 lengths in a four-runner event at Leicester in March, so massive improvement is needed here.

Sir Rock is two from four over fences, having won back to back races at Plumpton and Fontwell last December/January. A return to Plumpton in March saw him finish second of five, beaten by a neck before a seven month break. Sadly he hasn't been the same this season, going down by 34 lengths over hurdles back at Fontwell before being pulled up 3 out having tailed off in a 2m4f chase there earlier this month. Pats Dream got off the mark at the eighth attempt at Ayr earlier this month, winning a 12-runner handicap by a neck on what was his yard debut for new handlers. He is up 7lbs for that win, which is a little harsh, but he's the 'in-form' runner in a poor looking contest.

My shortlist is completed by (6) Coolmoyne whose form over 3m+ in 2024 reads 24132 and was a creditable second of six at Sedgefield most recently despite coming off a 141-day absence. He runs off the same mark here and whilst more of a place prospect than a winner, should go well and I'll take him as my next best to (5) Pats Dream with (2) Anytrixwilldo the backup option.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (6) Tripoli Flyer & (1) Catchim

Leg 2: (1) Chief Sunday, (3) Brave Jen & (5) Traveling Soldier

Leg 3: (6) Camino Rocio, (3) Sadlers Bay & (4) Stuti

Leg 4: (2) Harbour Lake, (8) What A Johnny & (3) Supreme Gift

Leg 5:  (1) Fantastic Lady & (3) Marsh Wren

Leg 6: (5) Pats Dream, (6) Coolmoyne & (2) Anytrixwilldo

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris