Tag Archive for: Tix Picks

Tix Picks, Tuesday 26/11/24

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Tuesday's racing comes from Sedgefield, Southwell and Tramore. If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Sedgefield...

...and as I want to avoid the maiden bumper in the last at Sedgefield, I'm going to tackle the first six races on the Southwell card, where the going is said to be good to soft.

Leg 1 @ 12.35...Smurfette has a win and two places from her last three starts and also looked like she'd more running left in her when third over 2m6f last time out. Northern Reel's yard, jockey and trainer/jockey combo have all made the frame in more than half of their races over the last fortnight...

...and the horse herself was a ready 13 lengths winner at Leicester last week. One other to consider would be Eightytwo Team who has a win and a place from two efforts over course and distance and has been in consistently decent nick for some time.

That said, I don't think she's at the level of the other two, so I'll stick with (2) Smurfette and (4) Northern Reel here.

Leg 2 @ 1.05...Great Samourai was disappointing last time out, but had finished 242221 in his previous six starts, including a pair of silvers here at Southwell and a win at Huntingdon and could well be involved again up in trip. Imperial Bede drops in class after finishing third at Wetherby at the start of the month and is now 6lbs lower than when he won by 13 lengths over C&D back in February.

Duo D'Enfer is getting on a bit now at 11 and although his last three efforts haven't been great, he did finish third this time last year at the start of a run of results reading 3131, whereas Jasmin De Grugy is the clear form horse in this pack, having won each of his last three starts over hurdles. he's had six months rest ahead of his chasing debut and if transferring his hurdles form to the larger obstacles would be the one to beat here.

Onewayortother has finished third in both starts over fences so far over a trip of 2m½f that has seemed too sharp for him, so he could improve for the extra half mile or so here, whilst You Say Nothing is dangerously weighted off a mark of 96, some 12lbs lower than his last winning mark from may 2023, but that does also reflect his poor recent form.

This half-dozen form my shortlist from which my 1-2-3 would be (8) Jasmin De Grugy, (3) Imperial Bede and (9) Onewayortother

Imperial Bede was withdrawn whilst I was still compiling the column, so I'll take (2) Great Samourai as the replacement

Leg 3 @ 1.40...Lexie's Moon won nicely at Stratford just over five weeks ago for a second win in four, both were on testing ground so stamina shouldn't be an issue as she steps up in trip. Broughshane backed up a comfortable win at Fontwell in October by finishing as runner-up over 3m at Ffos Las just over a fortnight ago when bumping into one winning for the fourth time in eight starts.

Asian Star has just five races under her belt with finishes of 312 over hurdles with her win coming here over 2m. An opening mark of 106 isn't a disaster, but she might struggle with the step up in trip and my shortlist is completed by the one I'd expect to win : Solar System. He's 31531 in handicap hurdles and is unpenalised for winning at Warwick six days ago.

I'm probably too well aligned with the market here, but it has to be (5) Solar System and (2) Broughshane for me with (3) Asian Star as Plan B.

Leg 4 @ 2.10...Achille Des Rocs made the frame in 3 of 5 PTP races and wasn't disgraced when a 13 lengths 4th of 12 at Market Rasen 12 days ago. Probably wants further, though. Kap de Triomphe's two UK efforts haven't really caught the eye, but he did win on bumper debut at Naas in February and this isn't the toughest race he'll ever have.

King Uklanda's sole run to date saw him land a bumper at Huntingdon back in May, after which he was sold for £17k, whilst Lawrenny has had three start in bumpers, progressing in each and he followed up a runner-up finish at Sedgefield in January by winning at Newcastle last time out, although that was nearly nine months ago.

The last one that interests me is Sergeant Fury who was beaten by less than two lengths in a Class 2 bumper at Wincanton earlier this month, having won on his sole PTP appearance.

This is one of those races where you could take six darts at nine runners and still miss the frame, but I'd go with (8) Sergeant Fury, (6) Lawrenny and (1) Achille Des Rocs as my trio against the field, although I wouldn't be massively surprised if Kap de Triomphe ran better than a 28/1 (or bigger) ticket might suggest.

Leg 5 @ 2.40...This looks a two-way fight between (1) Elle Est Beau and (5) Rockola. The former was definitely going the right way last season, finishing third in back to back races in November/December, but a fall at Sandown in January seemed to upset her rhythm and she could only manage sixth in two subsequent runs. She's better than that and you can be sure that Team Skelton will have schooled her well in her 220-day break.

Rockola, however, was in action just five weeks ago, finishing fourth here at Southwell after an absence of more than six month. She should kick on for that run and had been a runner-up on her last run of the previous season, from which the third-placed horse is 2 from 2.. She looks reasonably treated off an opening mark of 91 and like Elle Est Beau above, she takes a drop in class here.

(1) Elle Est Beau and (5) Rockola look the standouts for me and with An Cailin Ciuin being withdrawn whilst I was typing, I'll just take this pair.

Leg 6 @ 3.10...The withdrawal of likely favourite Early Morning Dew could open the door for top-weight Neigh Botha, who has actually been plying his trade in Class 4 chases of late finishing 13P343 in that sphere since his last effort over hurdles. That chase win was over today's track and trip and his mark is 3lbs lower than his last chase outing and the drop in class should help.

Gainsbourg returns to hurdling for his handicap debut at this code, having been racing on the Flat/AW for over a year. he has a win and a runner-up finish on the Flat from his last five outings, so should be sharp between the flights, suggesting a clear round puts in the mix.

The others that appeal to me are Window Of Time and Runaway Train with the former the pick of the two. Handicap debutant Window of Time has only raced seven times (1 x AW, 2 x Flat & 4 x hrds), but has finished 232 in her last three efforts over hurdles. Rated joint third best in the field says she's in with a shout here, but as the sole 3yo in the race is afforded a huge 16lbs weight allowance here, effectively making her bottom weight and that could be decisive here.

Runaway Train's bare form isn't much to write home about, but I'm scratching around for a back-up pick and he has shown some promise in the past. His yard are in good nick (24 from 80 = 30% SR over the last month) and have a decent record at this venue...

His jockey has 15 wins and 16 places from his 68 rides over the last year, which isn't bad for a 5lb claimer whose allowance further lowers what was a very fair-looking opening mark of 89. This might well be the poorest race this horse has faced so far and could well be the kickstart he needs, so (5) Runaway Train becomes my backup to (1) Neigh Botha and (14) Window Of Time

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Smurfette and (4) Northern Reel

Leg 2: (8) Jasmin De Grugy, (3) Imperial Bede and ,  (9) Onewayortother and (2) Great Samourai

Leg 3: (5) Solar System, (2) Broughshane and (3) Asian Star

Leg 4: (8) Sergeant Fury, (6) Lawrenny and (1) Achille Des Rocs

Leg 5: (1) Elle Est Beau and (5) Rockola

Leg 6: (1) Neigh Botha, (14) Window Of Time and (5) Runaway Train

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


As ever, the very best of luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Monday 25/11/24

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Monday's racing comes from Kempton and Ludlow. If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Kempton Park...

...and I think we'll follow the money and head for Kempton's good to soft track for six races starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.30...Only two runners appeal to me here and I'd expect this race to be all about (4) Moutarde who showed promise when a runner-up on debut at Galway before not disgracing himself in a Cheltenham Grade 2 nine days ago. He was fourth that day and this represents a huge drop in class.

Next best is probably (8) Our Lil who offered encouragement when beaten by less than two lengths on race debut at Warwick earlier this month and in a weak looking race, a similar effort should be enough to beat most of her rivals here.

Leg 2 @ 1.00...Miami Magic was second in a bumper on debut in May, beaten by just a head at Aintree and then next raced at Fakenham almost four weeks ago, showing no ill effects from a 166-day absence to win by 10 lengths on his first crack at hurdling and that run sets the benchmark here. Groovy Blue hasn't been seen since landing a Fonwell bumper in mid-May on his first run for Ben Pauling and despite his absence, it's hard to believe that he won't have been well schooled over hurdles by this yard.

Sole debutant Marengo Bay cost €58,000 as a 3yo and he's a half-brother to 2½m-2¾m winner hurdles winner Finest Evermore, who also won on the Flat over 2m. The Henderson/de Boinville axis is generally strong and this one could go well in a weak looking race. Salt Rock has shown some promise under Rules after being sold for £200k following a win on his sole PTP run, finishing third on hurdles debut just over a year ago and was only beaten by less than six lengths on his return earlier this month.

Thistle Be The One completes my shortlist on his hurdling debut. His two bumper runs saw him win here at Kempton in late-February at Class 3, before going down by just half a length at Ayr as a runner-up eight weeks later at Class 2. Califet En Vol was third that day, a further four lengths back, but he re-appeared here at Kempton a fortnight ago to win over this course and distance by 15 lengths on his hurdles debut.

(1) Miami Magic & (10) Thistle Be The One, supplemented by (6) Marengo Bay here for me.

Leg 3 @ 1.30...Gidleigh Park won on bumper debut and was 3 from 3 over hurdles at 2m1f to 2m5f before probably finding a combo of three miles plus heavy ground plus Grade 1 company a bit too much in the Albert Bartlett last time out. he did however, win a Grade 2 at HQ back in January and should go well back down in trip. Iberico Lord landed a pair of Class 1 handicap hurdles (Greatwoon & Betfair) last season, but was pulled up in the Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and hasn't been seen since. He's technically 6lbs well in on official ratings here too.

Leave Of Absence was progressive in bumpers finishing 113 (wins at C5 then C3 before a Grade 2 3rd of 13 at 2022's Liverpool festival). He won a Class 3 Novice race on hurdles debut in October 2022 at Ascot, but hasn't raced in over two years now. The Four Sixes completes the line-up and whilst he has been a consistent placer (6 times from 10), he doesn't seem to have the quality of the other three, although his form last winter did read 132F2 and was only beaten by a length and a half at Class 2 last time out. He probably beats Leave of Absence, who'll need te run, but I don't think he gets near my picks (1) Gidleigh Park & (2) Iberico Lord

Leg 4 @ 2.00...Craven Bay is 112 after being asked to go beyond 3m and was only denied a hat-trick by a nose at Fontwell seventeen days ago. Icare Allen's form (PP056987) this year had been uninspiring until he took advantage of a falling mark to score at Uttoxeter yesterday and it'll be intersting to see if he lines up here.

Shantou Express was a decent second at Warwick earlier this month and although winless for some time, has mainly been plying his trade at a hiher level and should still have the measure of many of these here today. The form says that Warranty comes here on a hat-trick, but both wins were on the Flat, where he has performed much better than over hurdles if truth be told and it's now over two years since a hurdle win, but he is 4lbs lower than that day.

Heaven Smart has won just one of fifteen career starts, but that win did come here at Kempton back in February, albeit in a 3m chase. He was a solid third at Fontwell on his last run and could have been much closer but for a mistake two out when pressed for the lead. He was 12 lengths behind the re-opposing runner-up Craven Bay that day and would hope to get closer if he can avoid any jumping errors, but I'm overlooking him here in favour of (1) Craven Bay and (3) Shantou Express with (2) Icare Allen my backup plan.

Icare Allen was withdrawn as I was finishing up this morning, so I'm now taking (5) Heaven Smart as the backup.

Leg 5 @ 2.35...It's hard to see beyond last year's runner-up in this race Kateira, who was also a Grade 2 runner-up at Aintree in April 2023 and won a Class 1 handicap there back in April of this year. She made a mistake 2 out on his return at the start of the month, but should come on for the run here.

Of the others, I think The Height of Fame is the weakest and I expect a 3-way battle for silver here between Pawapuri, Della Casa Lunga and Porter In The Park. Pawapuri has finished 1162 (inc a win in a Listed race) over the last year, but hasn't raced since mid-May. Della Casa Lunga looks best off at the weights and won back to back hurdles at Ludlow in February. She probably needed the run at Bangor eleven days ago after a 195-day absence, whereas Porter In The Park has been kept busy with nine runs in 2024 already, making the frame in six of her last eight in a run of form reading 31212552.

I'd probably rule out Pawapuri for the lack of a recent run and with Della Casa Lunga being rated 15lbs better than Porter In the Park but running oat the same weight, she'd be my alternate here.

Leg 6 @ 3.10...A decent, open-looking but hard to call finale has seven runners who could all technically make the frame!

The Edgar Wallace was last of 14 in the Topham at Aintree in April, but had finished 1122 in his previous four runs, all at this Class 3 level. The ground might count against Will Carver here. he has 4 wins and 2 places from 11 over obstacles, but all of his form is on good ground and it's going to be much slower/softer here.

Doctor Ken, however, is 3 from 3 on good to soft and his chasing career reads 121, all at this level. The fly in this particular ointment is a 616 day absence. Doddiethegreat is the only chase debutant, but has a good hurdling pedigree, having won a Class 2 handicap at Ascot this time last year before going on to be a Class 3 runner-up at Cheltenham in December and then a solid 4th of 21 in the Class 1 Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in February. If transferring that ability to the larger obstacles, he's definitely in the mix for a top trainer/jockey combo.

Bourbali won at this meeting last year and made all to win here again last time out. He's only up 4lbs for that win and if handling the step up in trip, has to be in the mix once more. Thelasthighking was second in this race last year and now runs off a mark 8lbs lower than that 3 length defeat. He has made the frame in 5 of his 9 starts over fences, but has been well beaten in all four starts since this race last year.

And finally, Es Perfecto, who is better than a last of eight runners, 47 lengths adrift LTO would suggest. He's normally there or thereabouts, as a prior run of form reading 24133233 would attest, but he just didn't fire at Sandown back in March. Well rested since, we'll hopefully see the real reliable Es Perfecto, but I do prefer the likes of (5) Bourbali and (4) Doddiethegreat, whilst I'm going to take a chance/value punt on (3) Doctor Ken despite a long absence. He was third at Aintree in October 2021 after 214 days off and then won a Class 3 race there in November 2022 after 220 days off, so there's a possibility here; if only this was Aintree?

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (4) Moutarde & (8) Our Lil

Leg 2: (1) Miami Magic, (10) Thistle Be The One & (6) Marengo Bay

Leg 3: (1) Gidleigh Park & (2) Iberico Lord

Leg 4: (1) Craven Bay, (3) Shantou Express & (2) Icare Allen (5) Heaven Smart

Leg 5: (1) Kateira & (3) Della Casa Lunga

Leg 6: (5) Bourbali, (4) Doddiethegreat & (3) Doctor Ken

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Saturday 23/11/24

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Saturday's racing comes from Ascot, Haydock, Huntingdon, Newcastle, Punchestown and Wolverhampton. If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £75,000 placepot guarantee at Ascot and a whopping £100k at Haydock Park...

And as I'd rather be hung for a sheep than a lamb, let's take a tilt at the big pot at Haydock and the following races on good to soft/soft ground...

Leg 1 @ 12.08, a 7 6-runner, Grade 2, 4yo+ Novice Hurdle over 1m7½f...Bold Light has made the frame on all three starts so far and was a 7 length winner at Kelso last timeout, whilst Country Mile comes here on a hat-trick having won both starts to date including on hurdle debut recently. Roadlesstravelled is two from two over hurdles so far and was a five length winner at Wetherby three weeks ago, whilst 9 lengths was the margin of Saracen Beau's victory at Ayr on the same day.

Rocheval hasn't been seen for almost nine months, but comes here boasting a 100% record from three starts, including two wins over hurdles and the mare Lily du Berlais also runs for the first time this season, having been rested for 199 days after wins at Kelso and Ayr in the spring.

You could make a case for all six above, but my 1-2-3 would be Roadlesstravelled, Bold Light and Lily du Berlais with Rocheval best of the rest.

Leg 2 @ 12.40, a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m½f...The Skeltons won this race last year with Real Stone and look set to repeat the feat with Home Free who is 2 from 2 since a wind op during a five month break this summer. He won very easily by 11 lengths at Ayr four weeks ago and a 10lb rise might not be enough to stop him. Netywell was denied a four-timer when fourth of ten at Carlisle back in April having jumped up two classes and could do better here now back down a grade.

The 8yo Galunggung is interesting with just four runs to his name. he finished 211 over hurdles and then scored on his chase debut at Perth in May. Like many of this field he has been well rested and he has yet to run a bad race. General Medrano needs to turn the clock back to October/November '23 when he finished 112 in consecutive races, but that hoisted his mark from 118 to 135 and he has toiled somewhat since. That said, he's now running off 129, which is 5lbs lower than his runner-up finish at Plumpton this time last year.

My shortlist here consists of the four named above and I think the one to miss out would probably be General Medrano.

Leg 3 @ 1.15, a 15-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m3f...The two I like best here are Beat The Bat and Kamsinas. The former hasn't been seen for almost a year since unluckily bumping into the very useful Dysart Enos (a Class 1 placer last week) at Cheltenham in a three length defeat and with nothing of her ability here, beat The Bat could get back to winning ways if seeing off Kamsinas who won a Grade 2 here at this meeting last year and also won at Kempton in march again at Aintree four weeks ago for a fifth win in his last ten starts.

Top-weight Steel Ally has made the frame in five of his six starts over hurdles and since winning at Wincanton in February has only been beaten by a neck, 1.5 lengths and 1 length in three outings. Josh The Boss return from a six month break to win a 17-runner handicap at Chepstow last month in a hot race that has produced 7 wins and 4 places from 17 runs since. The runner-up Doyen Quest (runs in the 2.30 today) and the third placed horse Take No Chances both won well recently, so the form is working out well.

Punta Del Este is the last on my shortlist and was only beaten by a head on his return from over six months off the track when third of nine at Carlisle three weeks ago, he seemed a bit stretched late on, so a slight drop in trip might help here. That said, he's up a pound and doesn't quite look as strong as the other four I've mentioned and I'm going to take all four of them here.

Leg 4 @ 1.50, a 6-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ Graduation Chase over 2m5½f...Pretty much in line with the early market, my 1-2-3 here would be Iroko, Tahmuras and Trelawne with Deafening Silence the one most likely to upset my plans.

Iroko's last outing saw him finish second in the Grade 1 Mildmay at Aintree, having been a creditable fifth in the Turners Novice Chase at the Cheltenham Festival four weeks earlier and running anything like those kind of levels should be enough here.

Tahmuras has finished 3122 over fences so far in admittedly small fields, but was a winner at both Listed Class and Grade 1 over hurdles. He was only beaten by three quarters of a length in the Grade 2 Coral Pendil Novices Chase at Kempton last time out and it's worth noting that his yard (Paul Nicholls) have won this race three times in the last four years and four of all seven times this race has been held.

Trelawne fell at the second fence in this year's Ultima at Cheltenham and although he failed to win any of his three runs before that one, he wasn't beaten by far (4L, 2L & 2L), but did win on chase debut this time last year and landed both his last two hurdles races. He hasn't raced for 256 days but does go well fresh, having won at Carlisle last November and at Ffos Las the previous November after breaks of 259 and 232 days.

Deafening Silence makes a chase debut today, but after a Class 3 and a Grade 2 win over hurdles last winter, it wouldn't be too much of a surprise to see him go well here and I did consider taking him over Trelawne, but we've had a lot of rain here in the North West overnight and I expect the ground to be soft come race time, which is ideal for Trelawne.

Leg 5 @ 2.30, a 16 15-runner, Class 1, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 3m½f...Last week's impressive win for Doyen Quest pushed him to my no. 1 pick here, but he was withdrawn overnight, opening the doors for several others in what looks a fairly open race.

Kerryhill won a PTP, won at Class 4 on his racecourse debut a year ago and finished fourth and first in two subsequent Grade 2 hurdles. Gwennie May Boy has won four of his last five over hurdles, including a Class 1 success at Aintree when last seen, but an 11lb rise makes this tough.

Zain Nights has run consistently well to make the frame in 7 of his 8 starts (34141113) over the last year and has had the benefit of a recent run at Cheltenham. He is up in class, but rarely runs a bad race and will probably be a decent price for eachway backers and it's a similar story with The Imposter, who over the last two years has finished 31112111111 over hurdles, but all at Classes 3 to 5. He'll run his race, but the effects of ther gulf in class and a near one year absence are against him.

Ottizini, however, won by nine lengths on her seasonal reappearance at Ayr three weeks ago and although up in class, looked like being in good nick. Catch Him Derry is 3 from 4 in handicap company and 331211 over hurdles full stop. Has won on good to soft, soft and heavy, so he won't mind Haydock's wet track today and the trip is no issue either. He looked like being the yard's second string here, but Doyen Quest doesn't run, so this is the Skelton's only chance in the race.

My shortlist is completed by One Big Bang, whose UK record (and his last three outings) reads 112 having gone down by less than two lengths on heavy ground just over three weeks ago after a 207 day absence. He had previously won on both soft and heavy, including a course and distance win here in March.

I'd be looking at One Big Bang and Catch Him Derry as most likely to succeed here backed up by Kerryhill, Gwennie May Boy and Zain Nights here.

Leg 6 @ 3.05, a 9-runner, Grade 1, 5yo+ Chase over 3m1½f...Ahoy Senor was a Grade 1 runner-up at Aintree in April over today's trip beaten by just half a length and returned to Aintree 199 days later last month to finish a creditable Grade 2 third over an inadequate 2m4f and should relish the step back up in trip. Grey Dawning won at both Grade 1 and Grade 2 last season and had probably already done enough last term when third at Aintree in April. Fully refreshed here, stands every chance of getting involved yet again.

Hewick was beaten by half a length behind Envoi Allen in a Grade 1 earlier this month and won the King George at Kempton last year before going on to finish third in the Punchestown Gold Cup at the end of the season. He's proven at this level and rarely runs a bad race over fences. Royale Pagaille completes my shortlist here based on the fact that he won this race last year and his Haydock record reads 11211. Despite this, his jumping isn't the best if truth be told and he has fallen in two of his last three starts and this is why he'd be the one I'd discard from the four runners highlighted. His soft ground form might come back to bite me on the backside, but I need to draw a line somewhere.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (3) Roadlesstravelled, (1) Bold Light & (6) Lily du Berlais

Leg 2: (2) Home Free, (4) Netywell & (6) Galunggung

Leg 3: (5) Beat the Bat, (2) Kamsinas, (1) Steel Ally & (6) Josh The Boss

Leg 4: (2) Iroko, (3) Tahmuras & (4) Trelawne

Leg 5: (15) One Big Bang, (14) Catch Him Derry, (3) Kerryhill, (4) Gwennie May Boy and (7) Zain Nights

Leg 6: (6) Hewick, (5) Grey Dawning & (1) Ahoy Senor

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


As ever, the very best of luck and I hope you all have a great weekend.
Chris

Tix Picks, Friday 22/11/24

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Friday's UK action is scheduled for Ascot, Catterick, Chepstow & Newcastle. If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Ascot...

The fields at Ascot aren't the biggest, but that's where the biggest pot is, so let's pay a visit for six races starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.20...When I set my template out last night for today's column, we had five runners for this race, we've now got just three and it would be easy for me to just tell you to omit Oak Grove, select the other two and move to race 2, but the reason I prefer the other pair is because...

First Confession won his sole PTP race and then changed hands for £140,000 prior to a decent third place at Cheltenham on hurdling debut four weeks ago behind a pair of subsequent winners including Potters Charm who won at grade 2 next time out.

As for Milan Tino, he was third in a couple of Grade 2 events at Cheltenham last season and has made the frame at both Listed and Grade 2 class at Auteuil. He was rated as best in the field by the market in this year's Fred Winter although the heavy ground took its toll and he was only 6th home of the 17 runners and this looks far easier on paper.

Leg 2 @ 12.55...Again, we've lost a runner (the one I thought would win!) overnight, leaving us with just four to choose from. Rare Edition won his sole bumper and had four wins and a pace from ten over hurdles before scoring on his chasing debut at Uttoxeter seven weeks ago and has finished second of four in a Listed hurdle over further than today's trip. Riskintheground has more experience over fences, having won four of twelve so far. He's down in trip and class today, so should put up more of a fight than when finishing well off the pace in the Class 1 Badger Beer handicap two weeks ago.

Bad is a nine-race maiden, but was only beaten by three lengths on his chase debut over course and distance three weeks ago. He was outpaced late on that day by the winner Bhaloo who looked a decent sort and not having raced for over six months won't have helped. He should come on for the run and a similar effort to that last one could be enough here.

Bucksy Des Epeires might well need the run after 234 days off the track since going down by a neck in a Class 4 handicap hurdle at Ludlow. He's up in class here and didn't seem to be in the best of form at a higher grade before that run having fallen at Lingfield and then coming home last of nine here over today's trip. He might well be getting weight all round, but I think his chasing debut might be as tough one. I'm omitting him from my ticket builder and taking the other three in a cautious approach!

Leg 3 @ 1.30...Royal Infantry is an overnight non-runner, so we're looking at six starters for this one with top-weight Celtic Dino the one I'd expect to lead them home. He finished 131 in bumpers (the defeat being in a Listed race) before romping home by fourteen lengths on his hurdles debut at Wincanton five weeks ago; a repeat of that run should be more than enough. Next best (for me anyway) would be Joyeuse if showing no ill effects from a near 11-month absence since winning on debut at Taunton.

Her yard (Nicky Henderson) has won this race in each of the last three years with last year's victor coming off the back of a two-year absence, so Joyeuse's break might not be an issue.

As for the other four, I've little to separate Nothing To Sea and Wade Out if truth be told. The latter is 2 from 2 so far (1 x NHF & 1 x Hrd), whilst the former won a heavy ground hurdle at Compiegne a month ago. he was useful on the flat, staying 2m and should have good ground speed between the hurdles. Both he and Wade Out are more than capable of making the frame here, but it's Nothing To Sea joining my other two picks on the ticket builder, as he'll offer more value in the market.

Leg 4 @ 2.05...Corrigeen Rock has finished 11421 in his last five over fences and landed a £42k race at this trip/grade last time out, but hasn't raced for ten months and could well need the run. Terresita won a couple of chases last season and was an unlucky faller when leading 2 out in a Sandown handicap that has worked out well from a form perspective. She returned from a 190-day absence to land a Listed race at Carlisle earlier this month and for me, she looks the one to beat.

Persian Time won over 2m1f here last December and then again over 2m2f at Kempton in March, but was only 5th of 6 back there last time out. It was, in fairness, his first run in six months so he should come on for the run. Nocte Volatus comes here on a hat-trick and after wins at both Uttoxeter and Chepstow (after six months off) and although this represents a step up in class, he did finish as a runner-up at this grade last season.

Gemirande completes my five-runner shortlist and there's no doubting him on past ability, having won at Classes 2 & 4 in the 22/23 season before Class 1 silver at Newbury in March 2023 was followed by a 3rd of 12 in a Cheltenham Class 1 handicap the following month. Sadly, his record this tar hasn't been anywhere near that, beaten by 21, 17 and 24 lengths in the spring and although this is a drop in class, he could well need the run after seven months off.

Of the five named above, both Gemirande and Corrigeen Rock are coming off lengthy breaks, so I'll take the other three ie (2) Terresita, (3) Persian Time & (6) Nocte Volatus.

Leg 5 @ 2.40...We lost Perseus Way overnight, so nine are set to go to post headed in the weights by Aurigny Mill and Gin Coco. The former had three wins and two places from ten over hurdles for Vic Dartnall before a n easy 10 length win at Newbury a fortnight ago on his yard debut for Robert Walford despite a six month absence from the track. That kind of effort outs him right in the mix here, even if he is up 7lbs for that run.

As for Gin Coco, he won this race last year off just 2lbs lower than today but did struggle in to defeats of 27, 15 and 27 lengths in his three subsequent runs last season. He did, however, return from a five-month break to finish second of seven at Chepstow last month, beaten by just a neck following wind surgery, so could be in with a shout again here.

Williethebuilder is two from seven over hurdles and has looked a different proposition so far this season. he was only denied by a short head over 2m at Wetherby in mid-October coming off a 235 day absence, but went one better to win by half a length over that same course and distance next/last time out although he had been put up 2lbs. He'll find this tougher, though up in class and another 5lbs, so this might not be the one for him.

Break My Soul has yet to fail to make the frame in her six starts and after wins at both Chepstow and Fontwell in the spring, she was only caught on the line in a Class 2 handicap over today's course and distance three weeks ago, coming off a 170-day absence. Her jockey and trainer teamed up to win this race in 2020 and 2021 and there's a very good chance they make it three from five today with this progressive mare.

Bottom-weight Mirabad completes my shortlist, he's lightly raced and his career record reads 41221 and he has had the benefit of a recent run or two, finishing second at Exter last month before an 18 lengths success at Hereford 18 days ago. This is, of course, tougher, up in class and weight, but he was no mug on the Flat in France, so should have some good ground speed between flights and does get weight all round.

Plenty with chances here, but I'm taking my chances with (1) Aurigny Mill, (7) Break My Soul & (10) Mirabad.

Leg 6 @ 3.15...This looks like a three-horse shootout between (1) Regatta de Blanc, (3) Regarde and (9) Law Of Supply. Regatta be Blanc was 3rd of 16 at Chepstow last time out despite going off as a 4/6 favourite. In her defence, she had been off the track for 161 days, it was her hurdling debut and she probably found 2m3½f a bit on the sharp side as her previous three races were Hunter Chases at 2mf to 3m1½f where she finished 121. Her last crack at fences saw her make all to win by 94 lengths at Cheltenham in May.

Regarde is three from six over fences and was relatively comfortable when scoring by four lengths at Kempton (3m½f) a month ago some seven months after finishing as runner-up at Huntingdon in mid-March. He's up 6lbs here, but was cosy last time out and his yard are in good form.

The above pair should be joined in the frame by Law Of Supply who won on his chase debut at Worcester just over five weeks ago. This was his first outing in seven months and he was much better than a 3.5 length margin of victory might suggest; he was well clear on the run-in and and was sensibly eased right down by jockey Tom Bellamy once he knew the race was won.

You could make a case for the likes of Bertie Wooster (a winner at Taunton in April) or Morfee (placed on six of nine over fences), but I do suspect that my three-horse shortlist should be a cut above the rest of the field here.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) First Confession & (4) Milan Tino

Leg 2: (2) Rare Edition, (3) Riskintheground & (4) Bad

Leg 3: (1) Celtic Dino, (2) Nothing To Sea & (6) Joyeuse

Leg 4: (2) Terresita, (3) Persian Time & (6) Nocte Volatus

Leg 5: (1) Aurigny Mill, (7) Break My Soul & (10) Mirabad

Leg 6: (1) Regatta de Blanc, (3) Regarde & (9) Law Of Supply

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck! (we might need it)
Chris

Tix Picks, Thursday 21/11/24

/in /by

OK, guys, I'm back in the hotseat upon my return from a brief trip abroad and hopefully I can continue the fine form shown by Matt here in my absence. Thursday's UK action is scheduled for Lingfield, Southwell, Warwick, Wincanton & Wolverhampton.

If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Southwell...

And as it's likely to be a tough first day at the helm, I might as well aim for the big one and tackle these six races on Southwell's standard going tapeta...

Leg 1 @ 4.30...Anthropologist and Fernando both won last time out, both are only up 4lbs for their wins and the former also takes a drop in class here. Elsewhere both Montbeliarde and Queen of Good News have been runners-up in two of their last three starts but the former is up in class here, whilst the latter drops three classes.

Anthropologist is the one most likely to lead, but there's no out and out front runner here, which does give a chance to those who might otherwise have been left behind, whilst with low draws preferred over this track and trip, that's another tick for Anthropologist from stall 2 of 9.

He won't be the market's choice here, but Anthropologist ticks most boxes for me today and I'll take him along with fellow LTO winner Fernando and triple-grade class dropper Queen of Good News in the opener.

Leg 2 @ 5.00...Waiting All Night looks like a potential front-runner here and if he brings his Newmarket summer form to the table, he has a great chance of giving his yard more success at a track where they've had 7 winners and 4 placers from 20 over the last year. Local Music has only failed to make the frame twice in her nine starts over the past year with three wins and three runner-up finishes.

Rogue Encore comes here on a hat-trick after back to back 1m wins at Newcastle and is a big danger despite a 6lb penalty, as is Helm Rock if running like he did at Chelmsford last time out. He was only beaten by head after being denied a clear run and the one horse from that race to have run again went on to win at Wolverhampton five days ago.

And whilst I do like the look of Waiting All Night, it's (2) Local Music, (4) Rogue Encore & (5) Helm Rock for me here.

Rogue Encore was withdrawn whilst I was writing the piece, so (1) Waiting All Night takes his place on the tickets.

Leg 3 @ 5.30...Al Rayyan blew the start at Kempton on debut six weeks ago but ran on really well to finish fourth and if coming on for the run and getting away more smoothly, should be in the mix here today for a yard with 17 wins and 16 places from 58 over the last month and a course record of 9 wins and 6 places from 30 over the last five years. Cy Twombly has run to a reasonable level in two starts so far and could well be involved again here; his trainer/jockey have a good record together at this venue.

The Gosden newcomer Gamrai is interesting, his dam was a winner at 1m2f and he's related to 1m winner Aljazzi and a half-brother to Majestic Noor and the versatile triple-code winner Liverpool Knight. The yard is in great form, especially with today's jockey on the saddle and this one could well win on debut. Debutants Wolfpack and Atlantic Sunset are also of interest, but I'm playing it relatively safe here with (1) Ar Rayyan, (3) Cy Twombly & (4) Gamrai.

Leg 4 @ 6.00...The second division of the race above looks a much weaker affair with only Pride of Donegal making much appeal from the seven runners to have already raced. He was only beaten by three lengths over a mile on debut at Newcastle a fortnight ago defying odds of 28/1 and should come on for the run, whilst it is hoped that Hallelujah U will also be able to build upon his 5th of 11 (3.5 lengths) run here over 7f a month ago. He didn't get a clear run that day but finished stronger so might appreciate the extra furlong here for a yard with a 28% win strike rate over the last month and 4 winners plus 3 placers from his last 15 Southwell A/W runners.

All of which might well be blown out of the water by another newcomer from the Gosden yard, the Lope De Vega colt Written For You. He is a half-brother to several winners including Glorious Journey who won eight times between 6f and 1m including three Group 2 races, 1m winner Queen For You and 2-y-o 7f/1m winner Love Is You.

So, I'll take (3) Hallelujah U, (5) Pride of Donegal & (8) Written For You for this one.

Leg 5 @ 6.30...Top-weight Artistic Star drops back into handicap company after five Class 1 races and if fit to go first time up after a seven-month break, could well have been underestimated by the assessor, even if 106 isn't a mark to be taken lightly and we've already mentioned the 30-day and course form of his trainer Ralph Beckett earlier. Max Mayhem won a Class 2 handicap on his last A/W outing just over a year ago and comes here off the back of a two length defeat in a £52k handicap at Goodwood.

Course and distance winner Andaleep was a three-quarter length runner-up at Kempton seventeen ago in a 14-runner field and that came of the back of an excellent run at 66/1 to finish 5th of 31 in the Cambridgeshire at the end of September, so this horse clearly has ability and isn't afraid of company, but the one to beat here has to be Champagne Prince, who is three from three on the A/W and won here over course and distance last time out and shouldn't be anchored by a 5lb rise.

Dark Moon Rising is another to consider, as he's better than his LTO 21st of 23 at Doncaster might suggest, as he'd finished 233 with small margins of defeat in his previous three runs, but I'm overlooking him in favour of (1) Artistic Star, (5) Andaleep & (8) Champagne Prince.

Leg 6 @ 7.00...The early morning market says it's a three horse race from the top of the card and I'd tend to agree that this should be between Paddy's Day, Strong Johnson & Dashing Harry and I've got very little between them in my head.

Paddy's Day drops in class after finishes of 4223 and not beaten by much in any of them, he ruins of the same mark as his LTO C&D third of nine and with his jockey taking 5lbs off, he should be on the premises once more.

Strong Johnson was going well at Wolverhampton last week, leading at the halfway point before his reins snapped and having been passed by a couple inside the final furlong, he was eased down with no real hope of being ridden out. That said, he did make all to at Newcastle two starts ago and a similar run might well be enough here.

Dashing Harry probably just about shades it here, though as he was only denied by a short head (headed on the line) over course and distance three days ago and goes again off the same mark. He was a winner at Kempton three starts ago and drops in class today.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Queen of Good News, (4) Anthropologist & (5) Fernando

Leg 2: (2) Local Music, (4) Rogue Encore & (5) Helm Rock & (1) Waiting All Night (late sub)

Leg 3: (1) Ar Rayyan, (3) Cy Twombly & (4) Gamrai

Leg 4: (3) Hallelujah U, (5) Pride of Donegal & (8) Written For You

Leg 5: (1) Artistic Star, (5) Andaleep & (8) Champagne Prince

Leg 6: (1) Paddy's Day, (2) Strong Johnson & (3) Dashing Harry

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Tix Picks, 20/11/24

/in /by

Another winning ticket yesterday but, again, the dividend was measly meaning profits were, too. Still 25% ROI is not terrible and clawed back some of the Monday deficit. Wednesday is my final contribution in this stint - Chris is back tomorrow - and I think we'll stay over jumps.

It's cold out there, Hexham failing to beat the frost, but we currently have jumps racing from Ffos Las and Warwick; and all-weather meetings at Kempton and Dundalk.

If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Kempton...

 

 

 

Across to west Wales today as we tackle the Ffos Las placepot where soft ground means runners abound.

12.15 Ffos Las - Leg 1

A lot  has to be taken on trust with short-priced novice hurdle recruits from the point fields. In the case of Buckna, at least, we have the fact his point had some depth and his price tag was £350,000. Oof. A. Admiral Stewart was beaten in his bumper having won a point to point, and he also goes on A. It's hard to see both of those two off the ticket.

12.50 Ffos Las - Leg 2

A competitive low grade novices' handicap chase next, with a shortish favourite in Montys Soldier. He was a staying on fourth in a good ground Fakenham novices' handicap hurdle over two and a half miles last time, and gets a lot of condition changes here: fences, more galloping track, softer turf and an extra half mile in trip. He should handle those differences based on pedigree and prior form but it's not a given so he'll have company on my main 'A' tickets. The Scorpion King is experienced, has performed well on soft and sees this range out fine; he's A team, too.

Shillanavogy won a 2m4f soft ground handicap hurdle and was a narrow second in a similar race to this last time. He handles soft, has nearly won at the trip and should run well if fit enough after six months off. Wide To West have soft ground three mile form but has been off for seven months and his trainer is not firing on all cylinders at the moment. Hobb's Delight has been going close but on quicker turf; he might handle softer well but he's yet to prove it and I'll leave him alone. Wonder Of The Seas is more attractive as a place play, with three silver medals in his last four runs, two of them on a deep surface. B's bar Hobb's.

[Casting Aspersions might run better than his price first time in a handicap]

13.25 Ffos Las - Leg 3

Assuming he can jump, dual bumper winner Blue Las should make the frame. A banker. In case he can't, Andy Amo is an obvious alternative for a trainer (Rebecca Curtis) with a good record in the race and whose bumper form implies this sort of test should be ideal. B.

14.00 Ffos Las - Leg 4

This 0-100 novices' handicap hurdle could see any of a number spring forward on what they've shown so far. The established form is with Greenways, but he's never raced on soft ground and is short enough with that to prove. Lady Harriett looks more solid, with form on soft and at the trip and as an easy last day winner. Fresh Speculation has been consistent in defeat but shoulders top weight against more interesting rivals. He, like Greenways, could easily make the frame, but won't be on my ticket.

Atreides was unlucky not to win two back, his run coming too late and, if his seven pound conditional can elicit a tune, he's a player. B. Just Aidan has been well backed early in spite of middling form and seven months off. It's possible he's stepped forward for his summer and is a tentative B.

I'm going to throw some rags on C here, as well, because it could go that way. Handicap debutants Jukebox Joker and Dish Of The Day, as well as Greenways and Fresh Speculation. I don't really like this race!

14.35 Ffos Las - Leg 5

Another 0-100 handicap chase but this time most of them are what they are: exposed handicappers. Favourite is Lermoos Legend but he doesn't love this sort of ground and has top weight. Supasunrise and One Last Glance look much more reliable against race conditions. Both on A.

Ileny Royale is an interesting one at a price. Ex-French, he ran better than his finishing position last time and gets the tongue tie that was a feature of his better French form for the first time in UK today. I'm not sure about the ground for Lelant, Esperti or Faitque de l'Isle; but Bobbi's Beauty will go through it and may try to lead - the trouble is, she's having her first run for eight months for a yard out of form.

I'm taking more B's with Rock On Rita, Higgs and My Granny Lily all expected to cope with conditions. But I could easily have this race wrong.

15.10 Ffos Las - Leg 6

A trappy mares' handicap hurdle closes out the card and I'm again, reluctantly, taking on the well-backed favourite Hedera Park on the basis of no form on soft. The support suggests connections think he'll handle it and he'll be in the frame if he does; but there are three places to go at so we can still get the job done.

Cast's Tasha has all the weight but is fully proven in conditions for a trainer, Ben Clarke, who has started the season well. It's Easy should benefit from this stouter test than two miles last time and goes in deep ground. Both on A.

Elusiveness has the benefit of a run and gets first time cheekpieces. I'm convinced she'll stay but I respect connections. B. Sanda Rena's best run was on soft and she gets a tongue tie for handicap second start; that's enough to guess onto B. And Triple Nickle is very consistent and handles any ground. B.

*

Which for 2p lines before multipliers gives us the below (£26.40 staked), as it looks in the Tix software. Do give it a try if you haven't already. Even if you just want to do a 2x2x2x2x2x2 perm or some such, just put all your picks in the 'A' column and that will get you a 5% bonus on any returns.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good Luck!
MATT

Tix Picks, 19/11/24

/in /by

After 17 straight winners highlighted across three days, we came down to earth with a mighty bump in the last leg of yesterday's Leicester placepot, as one of the two A picks refused to race and took no part; and the other performed little better. Galling was that the favourite for a bang in form team sauntered home. Ugh. On we go.

There's a bit of weather around today, but we currently have jumps racing from Carlisle, Fakenham and Limerick; and all-weather meetings from Lingfield and Southwell, the latter having to pass a 10am inspection.

If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Southwell if it passes its inspection...

 

 

 

We're jumping at the border town of Carlisle today, a midday start, and a more stats-driven approach for the Tix Picks preview.

12.00 Carlisle - Leg 1

A very competitive handicap hurdle to kick off and some unexposed ones. Iain Duncan runs two and both vie for favouritism in the same ownership. Slight preference is for Teddy Mac. A. Jonjo and AJ send one all the way up from Jackdaws Castle near Cheltenham, and they take off 10lb from Keppel Queen's 11-13 by deploying their promising claimer, Benjamin Macey. A.

George Bewley has three places (and a winner) from 10 handicap debut runners in the past 2 years, and a 58% PRB. He gets B action for Wise Move (we'll see about that!). I'll lob the other Duncan horse, Adveram, on B, too; and I'm also taking some C insurance in an inscrutable opener. They'll come from Topkapi Star, Glory Hights and Don Brocco.

12.30 Carlisle - Leg 2

An eight-runner (down from ten already) novices' handicap chase and one more defector will mean only two places. Sheesh. Incredibly, Lucinda Russell has just a 5% win rate at Carlisle, both in the past year and the past five years. On that basis I'm swerving Lady In The Park on A - which might prove remiss. Boomslang has been very consistent, but pays for that with all the weight here; still he's likely to again run well. A. Dream Boy is another to whom that comment applies and, a winner on chase debut last time, he's A too.

On B, we'll take Raceview Road, whose trainer's course record is a concern, and the aforementioned Lady In The Park.

13.03 Carlisle - Leg 3

Leg 3 is a maiden hurdle which looks just a bit more than a toss up between the O'Neills' Monty Bodkin and John McConnell's Ira Hayes, the latter getting the banker nod on account of his trainer's selectively successful forays to Carlisle. Sole A, and a possible place lay insurance option for those so inclined.

Nick Alexander (good track record, good trainer switch record) runs Orkney Blue who also cannot be discounted, but I'm going narrow here.

13.33 Carlisle - Leg 4

Another coin flip and another John McConnell runner, Kevin's Pride. It's 11/1 bar two and 28/1 bar three in this race so take your pick. Both will very likely be placed if they jump round. I'll go with Sandy Thomson's Dedicated Hero this time. A.

14.05 Carlisle - Leg 5

The penultimate leg, if we're still rolling, is a veterans' handicap chase. One nonner so far takes us down to five and so two places. Another absentee and it's win only. With that in mind, we'll cover everything. Flic Ou Voyou is consistent and likely to lead, and he handles quick ground. Obvious A player. Marown has top weight but most of his best form is on softer. B. Envious Editor drops from 0-140 company the past thrice to this 0-130 grade and he's run well many times on quick so he goes on A, too.

Former Grade 1 winner Cornerstone Lad (Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 2019) has shown all his best form on soft or heavy and at two miles. As I write, he's just been taken out - so we're win only. On that basis, although Ladronne has looked out of form in his last four starts, he does fit on back form and must go on B.

14.40 Carlisle - Leg 6

And we close with a deeper than average novices' hurdle. Epic West has point form so we know he jumps and Jamie Snowden sends him a long way north. Easy A. I'm not mad about Koukeo's form, despite a subsequent winner following him home last time, so he goes on B. Prince Of Perth has been out of the frame in two similar contests already and I'm swerving him altogether. But I do quite like Broderick, trained by red hot right now Jennie Candlish. He couldn't go the tempo on fast ground at Sedgefield last time, but at this more galloping track and on softer ground he can make the frame. A. A few of the others look handicap projects for down the line, though at least one might step forward today.

*

Which for 5p lines before multipliers gives us the below (£20 staked), as it looks in the Tix software. Do give it a try if you haven't already. Even if you just want to do a 2x2x2x2x2x2 perm or some such, just put all your picks in the 'A' column and that will get you a 5% bonus on any returns.

 

 

 

 

 

Good Luck!
MATT

Tix Picks, Wednesday 09/10/24

/in /by

Wednesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Kempton, Ludlow, Nottingham & Sedgefield.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

...and I fancy another crack at soft ground, so we're off to Nottingham for six races commencing with...

Leg 1 @ 1.45, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

Many A Year was a winner at Hamilton sixteen days ago, Bama Lama has been in the first three home in nine of her last eleven starts, winning twice and Diamondsinthesand has made the frame in seven of his last eleven, whilst Quanah is a three-time winner on soft ground and his jockey has been in good form himself of late...

We can add Apache Star to our calculations as he has also has gone well under similar conditions...

...and is now below his last winning mark. The pace is likely to be set by (2) Bama Lama...

..and it's entirely possible that she'll have things his own way, so she's in. (4) Many A Year is the form horse here, so he's in and I think I'll take (1) Apache Star over Diamondsinthesand based on Instant Expert.

Leg 2 @ 2.15, an 11-runner, Class 5, 2yo novice stakes over 6f...

Eleven run, two are on debut. Five have raced twice with (6) Double Rush's soft ground runner-up finish the pick of the results, whilst of the four making just their second start today, (2) Arctic Voyage's third pace on heavy ground looks the best first effort and he's a half-brother to former group 2 winner Speak In Colours who won nine races 6f and 7f.

In a race where only Arctic Voyage looks like being a front-runner, a repeat of (3) Carbine Harvester's prominent run at Kempton might make him the most notable challenger to the pair above.

Leg 3 @ 2.45, a 6-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6f...

Miss Alpilles won two starts ago and drops two classes here, the fast-finisher Pique has been the runner-up in each of her last four since winning at Leicester in May and was only beaten by a neck last time out at Yarmouth. Soft-ground winner Dancingwithmyself failed to complete a hat-trick last time out, but is three from six, although he is up in trip here. Divine Presence is 2134 in her last four and Seek And Destroy has a win and a runner-up finish from her last three.

You can make a case for all five of those, which brings us to top weight Plus Point, who herself has failed to make the frame in her last three after starting her handicap career with finishes of 11341. She was heavily beaten last time out and as the sole non-3yo in the race, she's 7lbs 'wrong' at the weights here, so she's off my list.

The pace/draw heat map leans towards (4) Dancingwithmyself, (6) Seek And Destroy & (5) Divine Presence...

...so I'll take these three at the obvious risk of Pique burning my fingers!

Leg 4 @ 3.15, an 8-runner, Class 2, 2yo novice stakes over 1m½f...

We've lost two runners here, so only eight are set to race with half of them making their debut! Of those with racecourse experience, Hot Dancer looks the obvious pick after finishing as runner-up in both outings so far, but he is up three classes here.

Elsewhere Royal Officer should have more to give than he has so far. His connections are amongst the shrewdest in the business and whilst spending money is no guarantee of success, this horse was the most expensive purchase at the Craven Breeze-Up sales, costing a cool at 1,000,000 Guineas.

Of the newcomers, Holborn is interesting. His yard are in good form, especially with Rossa Ryan in the saddle and the team have a good record with 2yo debutants on this track...

... so (4) Holborn, (5) Hot Dancer & (9) Royal Officer are my tentative trio of picks here.

Leg 5 @ 3.45, a 5-runner, Class 3, 2yo handicap over 1m2f...

The bare form guide says Lazieelunch might stroll home here after three wins on the bounce, but that has taken his mark from 56 to 79 (up 5lbs today) and all three wins were on the all-weather. He has failed to make the frame in three runs on turf, finishing last of 12 on debut, 7th of 9 and 7th of 8, so he's not quite the shoo-in here and the consistent (35323 in his last five) Chelsea Embankment might be the safer option for at least a place.

Manila Thriller hasn't been at her best in two big-money races recently but before those she was a runner-up in back to back Class 2 races (one on soft ground), beaten by a neck each time and she's down in class here, whilst Gentle Warrior took a while to get going last time out, but styed on well from the back to get within a length of the winner over a mile at Redcar. This, however, is tougher as he steps up three classes and I think I'll stick with (2) Chelsea Embankment & (3) Manila Thriller here.

Leg 6 @ 4.17, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m½f...

Top-weight Boy Douglas has been placed in half of his twelve starts to date, winning twice including once on heavy ground. A wide draw over an inadequate trip at Chester recently didn't show his true potential, as he'd finished 212203 in his previous six runs.

Lunario finished sixth at Yarmouth last time out, ending a good run of eight top-three (3 wins) finishes and he could be dangerous down in class today. Native Souvenir makes a handicap debut after a heavy ground win on debut was followed by a three length defeat on Polytrack. Pressure's On was a runner-up LTO and Climate Action has been the runner-up in three of her five starts to date.

Ardbraccan has been the bridesmaid in each of her last two and Mr Swivell was third in his last two and has placed in five of his last seven, winning twice. Desperate Dan has been in the frame in two of his last three and with Groovy Baby also in the frame in three of her five starts, you can make a case for several runners here to finish in the first three home.

All nine score well on Instant Expert, which doesn't really help us too much...

...but today's draw allied with the field's pace scores over their last few races does highlight some runners...

...and in a tricky affair to call, I'm inclined to take all three (3) Native Souvenir, (9) Mr Swivell & (11) Desperate Dan, along with (4) Pressure's On who ran really well as a soft ground runner-up last time out off an unchanged mark of 77 and with his form reading 335122 of marks of 75 to 77, I prefer him to Lunario for the finale.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Apache Star, (2) Bama Lama & (4) Many A Year

Leg 2: (2) Arctic Voyage, (3) Carbine Harvester & (6) Double Rush

Leg 3: (4) Dancingwithmyself, (5) Divine Presence & (6) Seek And Destroy

Leg 4: (4) Holborn, (5) Hot Dancer & (9) Royal Officer

Leg 5: (2) Chelsea Embankment & (3) Manila Thriller

Leg 6: (3) Native Souvenir, (4) Pressure's On, (9) Mr Swivell & (11) Desperate Dan

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck!

Chris

Tix Picks, Tuesday 08/10/24

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Tuesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Brighton, Huntingdon, Leicester & Southwell.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And with the biggest pot to be found at Southwell, we'll head there for our six races on standard tapeta...

Leg 1 @ 4.20, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Ifonlytheycudtalk was a winner a fortnight ago at Beverley and has been in the frame in four of his last six. Suanni and Glamorous Joy both won three starts ago with the former a runner-up last time out, whilst despite being a 12-race maiden, Marcus has made the frame in each of his last three starts and five of his last seven. Havechatma was a winner here over 6f last December and The Grey Lass is a former course and distance winner from four starts ago off just 2lbs higher.

Instant Expert also suggests that Suanni and Marcus could go well here and also puts Mr Funky Monkey into the picture...

whilst over a course and distance that suits those willing to get on with things...

...only Iftheycudtalk, Suanni, Northern Prince and Havchatma have an average pace score of 2.75 or higher...

...and I'll take three of those four, Northern Prince being the unlucky one and I'm still wary of Marcus based on the above.

(2) Havechatma, (3) Suanni, (6) Iftheycudtalk are my picks here.

Leg 2 @ 4.55, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ maiden over 5f...

Of those with racecourse experience, Vibrato and All Ways Glamorous seem better options than Bubbles Up and Kohana Girl.

Vibrato might need the run after 194 days off, but drops in class after being a runner-up here over a mile back in March, half a length behind Suspicion who has also yet to run again. The third placed horse that day, Devoirs Choice, has actually won his last three outings, all at Class 4 and off marks of 76, 78 & 80, so that's promising for Vibrato who also makes a yard debut for Jennie Candlish, who does well with new recruits...

All Ways Glamorous was only 4th of 7 on his A/W debut at Wolverhampton recently, but had finished as runner-up in three on the bounce over today's trip on good to soft, good and good to firm ground, so he's certainly adaptable.

Of the two debutants, I'm more drawn to Rebel Star, who is a half-sister to Angle Land who had 7 wins and 15 places from 49 runs over 5f, including a course and distance win here at Southwell.

Safety first here, I'll take all three : (1) All Ways Glamorous, (3) Vibrato & (6) Rebel Star

Leg 3 @ 5.30, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...

Kristal Klear is the klear (sorry!) pick on form having finished 121 in her last three outings. She was beaten by a head on good to soft ground at Haydock in between 7f tapeta wins here over course and distance and Wolverhampton last time out. She's up 5lbs for that latest 4 lengths success, but today's jockey takes those 5lbs off, so she's the one to beat for me.

Hardman was a disappointing 8th of 12 at Beverley last time out, but had won his previous two. Hostelry seems to be there or thereabouts without winning of late and this is a poorer race than she has been contesting as she drops in class, whilst 12-race maiden Jalaybee has made the frame in each of his last two starts. Back from Dubai is the sole course and distance winner, but doesn't show well on Instant Expert. Mind you, only Kristal Klear does!

She's also the likely front runner here in a race that seems to lack any real pace...

...so (1) Kristal Klear is a firm pick here. Matt (and others) braver than me would make her a banker here, but I'm prone to err on the side of caution and I'll also take (3) Hostelry & (5) Hardman here.

Leg 4 @ 6.00, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...

Amaysmont was a winner at Wolverhampton eight days ago, scoring for the third time in five starts since a pair of runner-up finishes in April and May, so he's clearly going well. Mykonos St John also won on that card at Wolverhampton last time out and is two from five, but lacks consistency. Of the others, only Rainbow Mirage made the frame on their last run. Kodebreaker has been placed in two of his last three and has two wins and those two places from his last six handicap outings and is also the only previous course and distance winner in the race, albeit from March 2023!

The top of the pace rating brings Cryptos Dream into play along with First Dynasty (winless in 12, though) and Amayretto who gets a 3lbs weight for age allowance and is down in weight despite only being beaten by 1.5 lengths over this course and distance last time out.

She's also on my six-runner Instant Expert shortlist...

I can't ignore the obvious claims of (1) Amaysmont and based on pace/IE, I'm also taking (4) First Dynasty & (8) Amayretto here

Leg 5 @ 6.30, a 6-runner, Class 3, 2yo novice stakes over 7f...

This looks like a 'straightforward two-horse race' between triple runner-up (6) Shah who benefits from a higher draw...

... and (1) Jonquil, the only previous winner in the race, having scored over this trip on debut at Sandown and with both of these runners dropping in class, I'm just taking (1) Jonquil & (6) Shah from this one and moving on to our finale...

Leg 6 @ 7.00, a 6-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 2m½f

And we end with another small field where Different Drum sets the standard on form having finished third here over 1m4f five weeks ago prior to an LTO win over today's trip on the tapeta at Newcastle three weeks ago. Grey Nyle was a runner-up beaten by just a head over that same Newcastle track/trip almost four weeks ago and has to be considered and this pair are both still 3 yr olds, so get a whopping 9lbs advantage over their rivals, from whom Scylla has also won over today's trip albeit on good to firm ground at Lingfield in late July.

There's not much to be gleaned from Instant Expert, pace or draw here, but Scylla's yard have a useful recent place record at this venue...

..so I'll add (1) Scylla to the previously highlighted (3) Different Drum & (6) Grey Nyle for leg 6.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Havechatma, (3) Suanni, (6) Iftheycudtalk & (10) Marcus

Leg 2: (1) All Ways Glamorous, (3) Vibrato & (6) Rebel Star

Leg 3: (1) Kristal Klear, (3) Hostelry & (5) Hardman

Leg 4: (1) Amaysmont, (4) First Dynasty & (8) Amayretto

Leg 5: (1) Jonquil & (6) Shah

Leg 6: (1) Scylla, (3) Different Drum & (6) Grey Nyle

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

As ever, good luck!

Chris

Tix Picks, Monday 07/10/24

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Monday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Pontefract, Stratford, Wolverhampton & Yarmouth.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And there's soft ground at Pontefract, so we'll head there for six races beginning with...

Leg 1 @ 1.17, an 11-runner, Class 4, 2yo handicap over 6f...

Top Juggler, Dark Rosa & Sir Palamedes all won last time out, Stirrup Cup has finished 12 in his last two and despite being a 5-race maiden, Georgecandoit has never been out of the first three home and drops two classes here, as does Stirrup Cup.

Dark Rosa has already won over course and distance and Top Juggler, Shazani, Stirrup Cup & Sir Palamedes have 6f wins under their belts, whilst Top Juggler, Stirrup Cup & Larchill Lass have all won on soft ground and on a track/trip where early pace is often key...

...the ones setting the tempo are likely to be that quartet above. Dark Rosa ticks plenty of boxes here, as does fast finisher Top Juggler and then it's a case of picking one from Stirrup Cup, Georgecandoit and Sir Palamedes for me. Two of that trio drop two classes here and of that pair, I think I prefer Stirrup Cup, so it's (1) Top Juggler, (4) Dark Rosa & (6) Stirrup Cup here.

Leg 2 @ 1.52, a 12-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

No LTO winners but Music Society has been runner-up twice on the bounce and Alafdhal three times. Yazaman failed to make the frame in his last two, but won his previous three and both Willolarupi & Mrs Trump both won three starts ago.

Most of the field have won over 5f already, Music Society has also won here at Ponty over 6f, whilst Alafdhal is a former course and distance winner and this pair are both on my Instant Expert watchlist, as well as being off significantly lower marks than past wins...

...so I'll take both of these along with Object, who wasn't far behind Alafdhal last time out, despite racing all alone on the "wrong" side at Catterick last time out, but as a front runner with a plun draw here, he could well take the race never mind make the frame!

(6) Music Society, (8) Object & (10) Alafdhal from this one.

Leg 3 @ 2.27, a 7-runner, Class 2, 2yo novice stakes over 1m2f...

Tequila Star, Sir Dinadan & Novelista all made the frame last time out and the latter is the only runner not stepping up in class. Sir Dinadan improved tremendously from his debut to then be a runner-up at Haydock and with further improvement expected, a low draw and these stats...

...(4) Sir Dinadan is probably the one to beat with (3) Novelista likely to push him hardest.

Leg 4 @ 3.02, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo handicap over 1m...

Epidavros is of immediate interest coming here off the back of two wins including one over a mile on soft ground. Sea The Dream has two wins (one on heavy) and two places from six this year, Good Morning Alex has won six of his last ten starts (5 from 8 over today's trip), whilst unexposed Retracement has a win and a place from his three outings, including a course and distance win here back in July and I think these are the four I'm keenest on.

I don't actually think that there's much between them overall, but Good Morning Alex's last two runs make him vulnerable on form. That said, he's the front-runner in this race...

...and that clearly puts him back in the mix, so I'm going to fudge it here and take all four! (1) Sea The Dream, (2) Retracement, (3) Good Morning Alex & (5) Epidavros.

Leg 5 @ 3.37, a 9-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 2m2f...

Justus returns from a 163 day break to see if he can complete a hat-trick after winning three and being a runner-up in one of his last five starts. He own here over course and distance on heavy ground three starts ago and is only 5lbs higher here and drops in class. He has a real chance of making the frame or better again today if he's not to rusty after his break, but I suspect the ones to be on here here might be Surrey Force and Cinnodin.

Neither of this pair are prolific winners, but are steady solid consistent types, like you need at this type of trip/going. Surrey Force is the sole 3yo in the race and for that, he'll get a more than useful 10lbs allowance. He ran really well from a car park drawn to finish third at Chester last time out and won't have to run that far/wide today!

Cinnodin is only 1lb higher than when finishing third in this race last year, was a good second of thirteen over 2m at Kempton last time out, now drops in class and is ridden by Rossa Ryan who likes it here at Ponty...

The main danger in taking the above three is, I feel, that Justus might well need the run after over five months off the track and the 5yo mare Yorkindness might well be the one who benefits from that.

She's a three-time winner (all wins here) from five starts at 2m1f and has made the frame in three of her last five at 2m2f, whilst her record here at Ponty reads 11153. She has won on soft ground before, she won the last time Jason Hart rode her and she drops three classes today, so I think she might just be a slightly safer pick today with Justus one to watch next time out, perhaps but I'm siding with (1) Cinnodin, (3) Yorkindness and (9) Surrey Force today.

Leg 6 @ 4.12, a 9-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 1m...

Bottom weight Style of Life is the sole LTO winner in the field and comes here with three wins and two runner-up finishes from her last eight outings. Urban Sprawl was a runner-up at Ayr six days ago, beaten by just a head. He runs off the same mark here and with no disrespect intended, a pro jockey might get a bit more from him in the finish today, as might Poets Dawn who is reunited with David Allan today who has ridden this veteran to six of his ten career wins.

He didn't run or get ridden badly last time out, though and was an undisgraced sixth of seventeen at York and having won over 1m1f at Carlisle on his previous outing, looks one to consider here again. Walsingham is also interesting, despite being a nine-race maiden.

He had been knocking on the door, finishing 332 in his last three races in Ireland before moving to David O'Meara's yard. He probably needed the run last time out on yard debut, not having raced for 398 days, but went well for much of the race, only fading badly late on and he should come on for that effort.

These four are my shortlist here and they head the four-race pace ratings...

Walsingham is probably the weaker of the four, based on past efforts and although the O'Meara/Tudhope combo is generally to be feared, the yard's record with handicap debutants over the last year doesn't really stack up with the yard's overall prowess

... I'll go with (1) Urban Sprawl, (4) Poets Dawn & (9) Style of Life here although Walsingham might well spoil the party!

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Top Juggler, (4) Dark Rosa & (6) Stirrup Cup

Leg 2: (6) Music Society, (8) Object & (10) Alafdhal

Leg 3: (3) Novelista & (4) Sir Dinadan

Leg 4:(1) Sea The Dream, (2) Retracement, (3) Good Morning Alex & (5) Epidavros

Leg 5: (1) Cinnodin, (3) Yorkindness & (9) Surrey Force

Leg 6: (1) Urban Sprawl, (4) Poets Dawn & (9) Style of Life

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!

Chris

 

Tix Picks, Thursday 03/10/24

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Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Chelmsford, Newcastle, Salisbury, Southwell & Warwick.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

*

The biggest pot is at Chelmsford, where the polytrack is standard to slow for our six races which kick off with...

Leg 1 : 5.00 Chelmsford, a 6-runner, Class 2, 2yo novice stakes over 1m...

Not a great deal to work with here, but Biniorella Bay has ran creditably in defeat with two fourth place finishes at Group 3 since winning at Newmarket in June. She sets the standard here and with her yard in good form and with a decent record at this venue, she'd be the one to beat for me with the main danger coming from Mythical Bird who finished 3rd of 13 at Kempton last time out.

Neoma has a pair of runner-up finishes to her name, but those races didn't seem as strong as the Kempton race above, whilst the unknown quantity here is the Roger Varian-trained Protest, who might end up being the one most likely to upset the applecart

(1) Biniorella Bay, (2) Mythical Bird & (6) Protest

Leg 2 : 5.30 Chelmsford, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 2m...

Grand Duchess Olga won relatively comfortably over this trip at Kempton in June and was then third upped in class over the same track/trip next/last time out. She's had a rest since mid-July and now drops back in class and should go well. Pfingstberg had finished 331231 in his six runs this year before a disappointing effort at Beverley (7th of 8) last time out. He, too, has had a break and if returning to his previous good form, has an excellent chance here.

Dereham has been getting closer to winning recently, finishing third in each of his last two starts and only went down by a length and a half at Pontefract a fortnight ago. Easter Icon did win last time out, but that was over hurdles and he hasn't run well on level ground since winning at Wolverhampton over 1m6f back in February. Simiyann and Taxiing are both right out of form at the moment but bottom weight Veer (9lb 3yo weight allowance) was a runner-up in back to back 1m6f handicaps at Southwell and Nottingham in July/August prior to struggling when upped in trip to 2m at Newcastle recently.

And after looking at both Instant Expert and the top of the pace chart...

...I'm going with (1) Pfingstberg and (3) Grand Duchess Olga along with (5) Dereham who looks on the verge of landing a race soon.

Leg 3 : 6.00 Chelmsford, an 11-runner, Class 5, 2yo nursery over 7f...

Telford won over course and distance on handicap debut last time out, Matharu has finished 212 in his last three starts and has a stack of trainer/jockey stats to support his claims...

The Feminine Urge was a winner two starts ago and Rotation won three back and that's pretty much it from a form perspective, although Brandywine Falls has run better than two fourth places on the bounce might suggest, especially last time out when staying on strongly over 6f at Redcar. The line came too quickly for him that day and the step up to 7f here might be his shot at getting off the mark.

We'd now normally look for speedy types over 7f here at Chelmsford, but with no obvious front-runner in the pack...

...I'll refer back to my notes above and take (8) Matharu and (11) Telford on form with the promise/prospect of  more to come from (7) Brandywine Falls over this trip.

Leg 4 : 6.30 Chelmsford, a 13-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ maiden over 7f...

A modest looking contest with only really Dancing Magic looking like he might win a race soon, even if he is a 16-race maiden. He was a runner-up at Chester four starts ago and again here over a mile last time out, beaten by just a length and a quarter and that run sets the standard here, I feel. He was only headed inside the final furlong by the 92-rated 4/11 fav and the drop in trip should help here.

Next best is probably/possibly Stanage who has made the frame three times from his five starts, but could only finish 6th of 10 on his A/W debut last time out. That said, he has been rated at 81 by the assessors, so they might have seen something in him and he'll wear blinkers for the first time today.

As for a third pick here, the field seems much of a muchness, but the market seems to suggest the filly Jumeirah Sea might be the one to pose the biggest threat. She improved upon her debut effort when beaten by 3.5 lengths at Kempton four weeks ago and a drop in both trip and class could see her get closer today.

(1) Dancing Magic, (5) Stanage & (13) Jumeirah Sea

Leg 5 : 7.00 Chelmsford, a 13-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

On form, you have to start with the three LTO winners; Pinball Wizard scored over this trip at Wolverhampton ten days ago and is 3 from 4 on standard to slow polytrack. Nammos won here over course and distance a month ago on her second yard debut for Jane Chapple-Hyam and Desert Dream comes here seeking a hat-trick after two wins over today's trip at Catterick. He might well be 10yrs old now, but he has been in the first three home in four of his last five.

I did, however, have doubts about all three here from a pace perspective as none tend to race from the front, which is often the key to success over shorter trips here at Chelmsford, but closer inspection of the whole field suggests a falsely run race anyway, which would suit horses who don't tend to lead...

Guiteau, Super Hit and Solara might well make a break for it early on, but none of them are running particularly well right now and I suspect they'd be reined it and beaten as they have in their recent outings, so I'm sticking with the form guide and taking (2) Pinball Dream, (8) Nammos and (12) Desert Dream here.

Leg 6 : 7.30 Chelmsford, a 16-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ selling handicap over 1m2f...

Clear Justice looks the pick on seasonal form, having won twice at Brighton over 1m and 1m2f in June/July and was only beaten by a head there over 1m2f last time out, some 4.5 lengths clear of the third placed horse. Milvus would be of interest if turned back out just two days after racing at Bath, where the heavy ground didn't seem to suit him. Prior to that run, he had finished third in back to back races at Windsor over 1m and 1m2f on quicker ground and he also finished third on his last standard to slow polytrack run.

The Instant Expert picture looks pretty bleak, but does throw Semser's name into the ring...

...whilst the likes of Hurtle & Juan Cool Dude enter the equation based on their low draw and early pace...

Sadly neither of that pair are in great form, although Hurtle was a runner-up three starts ago, but I'm going to overlook him and take (2) Semser, (4) Clear Justice and also (12) Milvus, who might well contest the lead here.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Biniorella Bay, (2) Mythical Bird & (6) Protest

Leg 2: (1) Pfingstberg, (3) Grand Duchess Olga & (5) Dereham

Leg 3: (7) Brandywine Falls, (8) Matharu & (11) Telford

Leg 4: (1) Dancing Magic, (5) Stanage & (13) Jumeirah Sea

Leg 5:(2) Pinball Dream, (8) Nammos & (12) Desert Dream

Leg 6: (2) Semser, (4) Clear Justice & (12) Milvus

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, as always,
Chris

PS A reminder that I'm making my way back from Indonesia via Singapore from Friday morning onwards, so no column from me for Friday or Saturday's racing, I'm afraid. We don't do Sunday placepots, so after this piece, I'm not back with you until Monday 7th October. Some of you might be glad of the break!

 

Tix Picks, Wednesday 02/10/24

/in /by

Wednesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Catterick, Kempton, Musselburgh & Nottingham.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pot is at Nottingham, where the going is said to be heavy for our six races which kick off with...

Leg 1 : 2.00 Nottingham, a 4-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 1m½f...

Jowddah has been a runner-up on both starts so far and possibly bumped into a decent sort last time out in the shape of Sandtrap. She's down two classes here in a weaker-looking field and she's my most likely winner and backed up by some impressive trainer place stats...

That said, 2yo maidens don't always go to plan and Tattycoram showed signs of promise/ability on her Ascot debut four weeks ago on soft ground and would be the main danger here, I'd have thought.

Leg 2 : 2.35 Nottingham, an 8-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 5f...

Eight run here, but the bookies think it's a three-horse race. They're not always right, but they probably are here. Veblen Good looks the one to beat based on his soft ground runner-up finish on debut and Karl Burke's horses make the frame more often than not on their second start.

After that it looks like a two-way battle between Nad Alshiba Snow and Think Of A Name for the runner-up spot and that's where bottom weight Nad Alshiba Snow was last time out for the second time in five outings. She has already raced at Group 3 and was also beaten by less than three lengths at Class 2, so should be in the mix once again.

Think Of A Name didn't seem suited by the Tapeta at Newcastle last time out, but ran enough to finish second on his previous (and only second) run at Newbury in July and should appreciate a return to turf and also a drop in trip. Safety first approach here, I'll take all three!

Leg 3 : 3.10 Nottingham, a 6-runner, Class 2, 2yo handicap over 6f...

Another trappy little contest here with only Lilly's Bet of the six looking like they might be out of their depth. Stirrup Cup sets the standard on recent results, having won a soft ground Class 5 Nursery at Carlisle, before a Class 2 runner-up finish at Ayr last time out and he's the only runner here not stepping up at least two classes.

Shazani was only denied by a short head in an other Class 2 heavy ground nursery at Hamilton two starts ago, attwepting to make all and getting caught on the line and the winner that day has won again since. Blewburton won on soft ground on his debut at Leicester in late-April before a couple of third place finishes on ground eventually too quick for him. He didn't stay 7f on his handicap debut last time out, but a drop in trio and a return to much softer ground could be the key here.

The going might not suit Rare Change here, as all seven career efforts have come on good or quicker ground and after a couple of promising third placed finishes on his first two handicap starts, seems to be regressing, whilst it's a similar situation for the going for Eighteencaratgold who hasn't managed to make the frame in four outings to date.

Instant Expert says to focus on the top half of the card...

...which allies with my own thoughts above, so again I'll go belt and braces with Shazani, Blewburton & Stirrup Cup here.

Leg 4 : 3.45 Nottingham, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

Four Adaay won LTO on soft ground and has made the frame in four of her last seven, whilst Northern Spirit comes her on a three-race run reading 211, After going down by a neck at Newcastle, he has won at Southwell and was impressive landing an 18-runner handicap at York last time out. Fantasy Master completes a trio of LTO winners, coming here off the back of winning a 14-runner handicap at Doncaster, but he is up in trip today. Elsewhere, The Ridler was a good fifth in the Bronze Cup at Ayr last time out and had been placed in three of his previous four starts, Hierarchy has made the frame in his last two, Music Society has been the runner-up in each of his last two whilst bottom weight So Grateful has finished 323 in his last three, so plenty look like being in decent nick.

As with the previous race, the top of the card seem to tick more Instant Expert boxes than their rivals...

..and I'm definitely keen on the first two, Northern Spirit and Fantasy Master. As intimated above, you can then make a case for several of the remainder, with that excellent run at Ayr in my mind, I've a marginal preference for The Ridler, but I'm concerned that Four Adaay might upset my plans!

Leg 5 : 4.20 Nottingham, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6f...

Another tricky contest with several holding claims including It's All About You who is 242311 in his last six outings. He won't mind the heavy ground, having won on similar at Ffos Las over 2m last time out, so we shouldn't have any stamina concerns either.

Expressionless is 12712 in his last five, although he's not as proven on softer ground as the previous runner, he has won over course and distance. Clever Relation was third two starts ago, beaten by less than a length over today's trip and was the winner of a Class 3 seller last time out and my form shortlist also includes Knight Templar. he's the sole 3yo in the race, so gets a very useful 7lbs allowance and he comes here on a run reading 2211 from his last four on Turf, which has a soft ground win amongst it. He's 2 from 2 since moving from Sir Mark Prescott's yard and will be in the mix here, I'm sure.

Instant Expert throws Alpine Stroll's name into the hat, as he'll not mind the ground either...

When I initially looked at the race on Tuesday evening, the two I wanted to be with were It's All About You and Expressionless and now having looked closer at the recent form etc, I think Knights Templar might even beat the pair of them with the 7lbs allowance and the upturn in fortune from a change of yard. His new handler has a decent record of getting LTO winners back in the frame, albeit off a small sample size...

...Knights Templar gets chosen here too.

Leg 6 : 4.55 Nottingham, an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...

And we end with another 8-runner contest that the bookies and I both agree might well be a three-horse race. Elladonna is two from three and three from six. She is admittedly unproven/untried on soft (or worse) ground, but has won over course and distance and is in great form, as is Prometeo who comes here seeking a hat-trick after wins at Kempton and Doncaster over similar trips. Again, he hasn't raced on anything softer than good to soft, but was a runner-up beaten by just a neck on his sole run under that going condition. He's the highest-rated runner in the race, but as a 3yo gets a 4lbs allowance here.

Amancio is the other 3yo in the contest, so also gets that 4lbs allowance and although he doesn't win as often as his connections/followers would like (just 1 from 16 so far), he has 10 top-three finishes from his last 14 outings, did win on soft ground at Haydock in April and has finished 2242 in his last four, going down by just half a length on soft ground last time out. Elsewhere, we should mention Ardabraccan who won here on soft ground back in April and had three runner-up finishes from her last five runs (25722) and possibly Giselles Defence, who has two wins and two silvers from his last five, was a soft ground winner at Pontefract in May and shows up pretty well on Instant Expert...

Giselles Defence also throws another spanner into the works by being one of those likely to race furthest forwards...

I was going with both Elladonna and Prometeo, but neither are proven on the going and I prefer Elladonna of those two. I'm still going with Amancio who ticks form, Instant Expert and pace boxes and I think I'm going to take a chance on Giselle's Defence at the expense of Prometeo and hope that call doesn't bite me on the backside later!

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Jowddah & (4) Tattycoram

Leg 2: (6) Think of A Name, (7) Veblen Good & (8) Nad Alshiba Snow

Leg 3: (1) Shazani, (2) Blewburton & (3) Stirrup Cup

Leg 4: (1) Northern Spirit, (2) Fantasy Master & (5) The Ridler

Leg 5: (2) It's All About You, (3) Expressionless & (9) Knights Templar

Leg 6: (1) Elladonna, (3) Giselle's Defence & (7) Amancio

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, as always,
Chris

PS A quick heads-up, I'm making my way back from Indonesia via Singapore from Friday morning onwards, so no column from me for Friday or Saturday's racing, I'm afraid. We don't do Sunday placepots, so after tomorrow's piece (Thursday), I'm not back with you until Monday 7th October.

Tix Picks, Tuesday 01/10/24

/in /by

Tuesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Ayr, Bath, Newcastle & Sedgefield.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And we're off to Scotland and some good ground for our six races today, starting with...

Leg 1 : 1.40 Ayr, a 9-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...

None of these come here in great form, but Yaaser and Gracious Leader did both win their penultimate races with the latter also third last time out. Both drop in class here and the fast-finisher Gracious Leader wears a first-time tongue tie on his debut for George Boughey, whose horses are running well right now. His horses also fare pretty well with 3lb claimer Tommie Jakes in the saddle and George has a good record with horses making their yard debut after a move...

Yaaser won here over course and distance on his penultimate run (the second run of his three races in three days here last month!), whilst Tele Red won this race last year off a mark a pound higher than today. He won six races back and has actually been running better than recent results might suggest. Elsewhere there's very little form to go off, although Detective did win four starts ago and Urban Sprawl has some useful jockey and trainer/jockey stats behind him for his run off a dangerous career-low mark...

Instant Expert also points to (2) Yaaser and (5) Tele Red...

...so I'll take both of them along with the afore-mentioned in-form yard debutant (7) Gracious Leader

Leg 2 : 2.15 Ayr, a 4-runner, Class 5, 2yo handicap over 6f...

Despite being 0 from 4, Weissmuller is the obvious pick here. He has been in the first three home on two of his three UK starts and was 4th of 27 in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes at Ascot and is rated as highly as 92 by the assessor. However, third place won't be good enough for us here today, so I'll also take Blue Pinatubo as a backup. He showed good early pace on debut at Goodwood back in July and although he faded late on, this is an easier task down three classes.

Leg 3 : 2.50 Ayr, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...

A really open race here with Soowaih of immediate interest running off the same mark as when only denied by a neck at Hamilton eight days ago having been caught very late on. The drop back in trip should help him here too. Top weight Pol Roger is a former course and distance winner and although he was only 7th of 11 here over track/trip last time out, that was his first time that he had failed to make the frame after two wins, four runner-up finishes and a third place in seven runs and his C&D form reads 112227.

Spirit of Acklam also drops two classes here after a disappointing handicap debut at Newbury when last home of 13, but this 3yo had won his two previous outings, so it's not beyond the realms of possibilities that he'll resume where he left off at Ripon back in April when winning by three lengths over today's trip, whilst another who has been running well is Young Fire who is showing little sign of slowing down at the age of nine. He wasn't at this best on soft ground at Doncaster last time out, but won a 17-runner handicap at York on his previous run for a second win in four starts and has seven top-three finishes from his last ten outings.

Pol Roger and Young Fire catch the eye from Instant Expert...

...and with (1) Pol Roger also likely to set the pace from stall 1, I have to take him here...

I also want to take (5) Soowaih based on that last run and I've a marginal preference for (4) Young Fire over Spirit of Acklam, There's probably not much in it, but Young Fire will probably offer more value in the markets.

Leg 4 : 3.25 Ayr, a 6-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 7½f...

Wow, only six run but it looks super competitive. Jenni won over course and distance ten days ago just a week after being a runner-up at Musselburgh. She's only up 3lbs here, so remains of interest. Danzan ran a really good race to finish third of twenty-seven in the Bronze Cup here eleven days ago and he now drops two classes. Redarna won this race in both 2020 and 2021, Abduction is a 3-time course and distance winner and Red Mirage won five starts ago. Clasina is the only one yet to win a race and now she steps up in class, so I'd rule her out now.

I will take (4) Danzan and (5) Jenni on their recent runs and it's really a toss-up between the other three with (3) Red Mirage probably edging it on form.

Leg 5 : 4.00 Ayr, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7½f...

In racecard order, (1) Novak, (2) Sir Garfield and (5) Alpine Sierra struck me as ones who might go well here, especially Sir Garfield whose last six handicap runs have seen him finish 122282 and he runs off the same mark as his C&D runner-up finish last time out and it is he and Alpine Sierra who make most sense here from an Instant Expert point of view...

Pace is often the key here over this track/trip...

...but in the absence of any real proven front-runners, I'm hoping that class will count, so I'm sticking to my original shortlist of (1) Novak, (2) Sir Garfield & (5) Alpine Sierra.

Leg 6 : 4.35 Ayr, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

You could probably make a case for five or six of these. The 10yr old veteran Muscika has been a runner-up in each of his last two starts and Act Of Violence was also a runner-up a fortnight ago. Jonny Concrete has made the frame in four of his last seven and was only beaten by three lengths in the Bronze Cup here and now drops two classes. Rousing Encore isn't in the best of form right now, but has dropped to a dangerously low mark of 78 having last won off a mark of 85, whilst Moyola has two wins and three third placed finishes from his last seven runs and he was only 3.5 lengths off the winner in the Bronze Cup too, despite coming off a 10-week layoff. He's down in class and should improve for the run.

Instant Expert backs up the competitiveness of this race...

...whilst recent pace scores only rule Moyola out of the reckoning from my original shortlist...

I think I need to be with three of the top four of that graphic and I think it's going to be (3) Muscika, (4) Jonny Concrete & (6) Act of Violence ahead of the possibly unlucky Rousing Encore for the finale.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Yaaser, (5) Tele Red & (7) Gracious Leader

Leg 2: (1) Blue Pinatubo & (4) Weissmuller

Leg 3: (1) Pol Roger, (4) Young Fire & (5) Soowaih

Leg 4: (3) Red Mirage, (4) Danzan & (5) Jenni

Leg 5: (1) Novak, (2) Sir Garfield & (5) Alpine Sierra

Leg 6: (3) Muscika, (4) Jonny Concrete & (6) Act of Violence

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Monday 30/09/24

/in /by

Monday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Hamilton, Windsor & Wolverhampton.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

So let's head for Wolverhampton for a crack at six races on standard tapeta...

Leg 1 : 4.15 Wolverhampton, an 11-runner, Class 6, 2yo nursery over 5f...

Startling was a revelation in a first time hood last time out, winning here over course and distance nine days ago and needless to say the hood is in place once again. Deal Maker is the only other runner in the field to have won a race, as she scored over 5f at Southwell on debut. Pure Liberty was third behind Startling last time, beaten by a length and three quarters and should get closer now she's 5lbs better off. Top weight Dubai Magic drops two classes here for a handicap debut and also takes a drop in trip. Her yard does well here at Wolverhampton and jockey Clifford Lee has had a great year riding for this stable...

and I think I'll take (1) Dubai Magic, (4) Startling & (9) Pure Liberty here.

Leg 2 : 4.50 Wolverhampton, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ novice stakes over 5f...

My initial shortlist here was All Ways Glamorous, Glowchester, Maid In Chelsea and Mockirr. All Ways Glamorous has been knocking on the door of late, finishing as runner-up in each of his last three with ever decreasing margins of defeat and today could well be the day. Glowchester has also got closer to winning in each of last three runs, finishing 432 and also only went down by a neck last time out, so these two make the ticket.

Of the other three runners to have raced so far, Maid In Chelsea and Mockirr have shown more than Gigastar. Of those two, the former has been off the track for almost four months, whilst Mockirr's yard have a good record at Wolverhampton and also do well with runners on their second outing...

...so I'm going with (1) All Ways Glamorous, (2) Mockirr & (5) Glowchester here.

Leg 3 : 5.25 Wolverhampton, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

The 3yo filly Shamardia has been a winner and a runner-up (half a length down) in her last two starts and she's clearly the horse in form here, although course winner Coconut Bay scored at Catterick three starts ago too. Araifjan, Coast and Neptune Legend have all won over course and distance, but haven't really produced anything in their last three or four outings and to be honest, only four of the field have shown any consistency at all over the last couple of years on the A/W...

(3) Shamardia and (4) Coconut Bay are the more obvious picks for me here and I think I'll also go with course and distance winner (5) Araifjan on his second run after a wind op.

Leg 4 : 6.00 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m½f...

Not the best race you'll ever see, but it certainly looks open/competitive with cases to be made for most of the field. War Chant, Hartswood and Cavalry Call all won last time out, which boosts their claims. Local Bay has won four of his last seven, Winterfair has been placed third in four of his last six whilst bottom weight Between Me And U has a win and a runner-up finish from his last two.

From a win perspective, Instant Expert is keenest on the three drawn lowest of all...

...whilst the pace in the race looks like coming from...

I definitely want to take Cavalry Call and War Chant here, leaving me with a choice between Winterfair and Between Me And U, I suppose. The latter is in better form, gets weight all round and will be up with the pace, so in a tricky one to assess, I'm with (1) War Chant, (8) Cavalry Call & (12) Between Me And U.

Leg 5 : 6.30 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Nights Over Egypt won last time out and Kristal Klear won two starts ago, before stepping up in class and going down by just a head as a runner-up at Haydock earlier this month. She's back down in class and the winner from Haydock has since won again and have the horses placed fourth and fifth, so I'd expect Kristal Klear to go well here today. LTO winner Nights Over Egypt is one of only two course winners in the field (Top Button is the other, but looks hindered by being drawn 12 of 12).

Higher drawn runners have fared worse here over this track and trip when it comes to making the frame, so lower drawn horses with early pace have been the ones to look at, which suggests this trio might be in with a shout...

...further cementing the claims of Kristal Klear. I do still want to take Nights Over Egypt, as I think these two are far better than the rest who seem much of a muchness if truth be told. Dynamite Katie has been a runner-up in two of her last four, has the lowest draw possible, gets weight all round and will be up with the pace. She'd be a long shot to win, I'd reckon but I'm taking (1) Nights Over Egypt, (2) Kristal Klear & (12) Dynamite Katie here.

Leg 6 : 7.00 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Swinging Eddie won at Catterick last time out but hasn't raced for almost ten weeks. That said, none of the others even made the frame and Swinging Eddie has 3 win and 2 further places from nine efforts over course/distance, making him one to watch. Lady Wingalong has also had a bit of a break (7 weeks), but with five placed finishes from her last six outings does arrive here in decent nick, as does Awaysmont with two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last six. Carvalhal won four races ago and Gilt Edge has two wins and two places from her seven runs this year.

Instant Expert suggests that American Rose could be well suited by conditions here too and she did win on her last A/W start...

...but the draw seems to be against her and Gilt Edge...

...whilst the pace stats back up Swinging Eddie's claims and also suggest that Carvalhal might be difficult to rein in...

I've got to take (1) Swinging Eddie and (3) Lady Wingalong here based on form, but those pace stats also make (8) Carvalhal a live prospect from a middling draw.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Dubai Magic, (4) Startling & (9) Pure Liberty

Leg 2: (1) All Ways Glamorous, (2) Mockirr & (5) Glowchester

Leg 3: (3) Shamardia and (4) Coconut Bay & (5) Araifjan

Leg 4: (1) War Chant, (8) Cavalry Call & (12) Between Me And U

Leg 5: (1) Nights Over Egypt, (2) Kristal Klear & (12) Dynamite Katie

Leg 6: (1) Swinging Eddie, (3) Lady Wingalong & (8) Carvalhal

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, as ever!
Chris

Tix Picks, Saturday 28/09/24

/in /by

Saturday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Chelmsford, Haydock, Market Rasen, Newmarket and Ripon.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

I've chosen to cover the meeting at Ripon today, where the ground is going to be heavy for our six races, starting with...

Leg 1 : 1.35 Ripon, a 9-runner, Class 5, 2yo maiden over 6f...

Leblon Girl outran her 22/1 odds to finish second of six on debut at Nottingham last month, beaten only by a 1/8 fav, whilst I'm Next was third of nine over 5f at Beverley after a 149-day lay-off.

Dothan was well fancied at Chester on debut, but was a bit green and didn't get going for a while. He seemed to have plenty in the tank late on, though, so he could go well here, as could Medinilla who ran better than 6th of 12 might suggest. She was denied a clear run and had to be switched out inside the final furlong, but did rally to stay on having lost ground. She drops in class here and her jockey is in good nick right now...

...whilst Leblon Girl's jockey has a good record here at Chester...

...and if she's quick away again like last time out, she might not be easy to catch this time.

Safety-first approach for the opener as (2) Dothan, (3) I'm Next, (5) Leblon Girl and (8) Medinilla will all be on my bet builder.

Leg 2 : 2.10 Ripon, a 6-runner, Class 5, 2yo nursery over 1m...

Blessed Star has been knocking on the door with three successive runner-up finishes and she now drops two classes, which might just be enough to get her off the mark. Law Degree was third last time out and has already won on soft ground. Captivate has shaped like needing further than 7f in her three average runs to date, which have 'earned' her a low opening mark of 73, whilst Greek Gift has won two of her last six and has a win and two places from her last four. She was disappointing on the A/W last time out and although second of eight on soft ground at Carlisle a moth ago, would probably want it quicker here.

I can't take all four mentioned from a 6-horse field, but don't want to crash and burn before the 3yo+ handicaps, so I'll semi-reluctantly omit Greek Gift and go with (1) Blessed Star, (2) Captivate & (5) Law Degree

Leg 3 : 2.45 Ripon, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Our Absent Friends has a win and four places from his last six runs, Count D'Orsay has won two from five and has a 44% place strike rate on soft/heavy ground. High Opinion has been running consistently well for some time now, making the frame in 9 of his last 12, winning four times including here over course and distance last time out. Faro De San Juan and Another Baar both won four starts ago, but it's the first-named trio that set the standard on recent form, although Another Baar has gone well on soft/heavy ground and clearly likes it here at Ripon...

...and even if his best form is over 6f, I think he might be worth taking with the two LTO winners in the field, so that's (5) Count D'Orsay, (6) High Opinion & (7) Another Baar here

Leg 4 : 3.20 Ripon, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

Baldomero was a fairly convincing Class 2 winner on soft ground a fortnight ago, making all to win by more than two lengths with the re-opposing Tacarib Bay back in sixth, some 5.5 lengths off the pace. Tacarib Bay is no mug, though, as he entered that race off the back of two narrow runner-up defeats in this grade, which suggest he could go well here too.

Secret Guest has made the frame in four of his last five, including a good third of eighteen in the Great St Wilfrid over this course and distance last time out and based on consistency it would be foolish to write the 10yr old Dakota Gold off. His last two runs haven't been he best, but he won over 6f on soft ground at Redcar in late-May and followed that up by being second over this course and distance and Instant Expert shows his ability to make the frame under today's conditions...

...and as he also heads the pace chart...

...he's hard to ignore, so I'll be taking him with Baldomero and I just need to choose between Secret Guest and Tacarib Bay and I think on recent form, I've a slight leaning toward the former, giving me (4) Baldomero, (5) Dakota Gold & (8) Secret Guest for this one

Leg 5 : 4.00 Ripon, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

My initial shortlist here was Run This Way, Music Society, White Umbrella and Hurstwood. Run This Way landed a hat-trick of wins in the summer including two over course and distance and was only narrowly beaten on heavy ground at Carlisle last time out and drops down a class here as does Music Society, who despite finding wins hard to come by of late was only beaten by a head at Ayr nine days ago, so could be in the mix again here.

White Umbrella also drops in class and has ran better in her last two races than 6th of 9 and then 6th of 11 might suggest. She was beaten by just over two lengths at Hamilton earlier this month and then by less than two lengths at Chester last time out despite being drawn 11 of 11, hardly ideal! Hurstwood doesn't drop in class, but does come here off the back of a win at Redcar and he has made the frame in three of his last six outings.

From the win stats on Instant Expert, Run This Way is the clear standout with Hurstwood probably next best...

...whilst Run This Way is also the pick on pace...

...and as I'm not convinced that Music Society will go well twice in a row (LTO was his first placed finish in 16 starts), I'm going with (2) Run This Way, (5) White Umbrella & (6) Hurstwood here.

Leg 6 : 4.40 Ripon, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

This looks effectively like a two-horse race between former course and distance winner Thornaby Pearl, who was only beaten by three quarters of a length on heavy ground at Chester last time out and Hamilton runner-up Havana Pursuit, who looks the pick of the Tim Easterby-trained trio in this contest.

Both of these runners are below their last winning mark and I'd be surprised if they did provide us with a winner and a placer today. Elsewhere Stormy Pearl has a good place record under today's conditions according to Instant Expert...

...whilst LTO runner-up and botoom weight Mr Trevor has a shout based on his fondness for front-running...

...and although ignoring his early pace might bite me on the backside, I'm going with (2) Thornaby Pearl, (3) Stormy Pearl & (4) Havana Pursuit for the finale.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Dothan, (3) I'm Next, (5) Leblon Girl & (8) Medinilla

Leg 2: (1) Blessed Star, (2) Captivate & (5) Law Degree

Leg 3: (5) Count D'Orsay, (6) High Opinion & (7) Another Baar

Leg 4: (4) Baldomero, (5) Dakota Gold & (8) Secret Guest for this one

Leg 5: (2) Run This Way, (5) White Umbrella & (6) Hurstwood

Leg 6: (2) Thornaby Pearl, (3) Stormy Pearl & (4) Havana Pursuit

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris