Posts

Stat of the Day, 4th March 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

3.50 Lingfield : Deep Intrigue @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 15/8 (tracked leader, ridden to lead entering final furlong, headed towards finish and beaten by a neck)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Arrowzone 4/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m1½f on tapeta, worth £2264 to the winner...

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding seems to love it here winning 5 of 18 starts, with the last win coming two runs ago off a mark of 59. He couldn't replicate that form under a penalty last time out, but now back to his proper mark, should give another good account of himself under favourable conditions, as from his Wolverhampton record of 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 4.18pts (+23.2% ROI), all at 8.5 to 9.5 furlongs, he is...

  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 3.19pts (+18.8%) in handicaps
  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 3.19pts (+18.8%) on the Tapeta track
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 8.19pts (+58.5%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 6.19pts (+44.2%) at Class 6
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 7.19pts (+55.3%) off a mark of 50-60
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 8.19pts (+68.2%) wearing blinkers
  • and 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.18pts (+83.5%) in fields of 12-13 runners

...AND...when, like today, all of the above factors are in play :  4/7 (57.1% SR) for 13.19pts (+188.4% ROI).

Moreover, his trainer Kevin Frost is 19 from 138 (13.8% SR) for 31.2pts (+22.6% ROI) in handicaps here over 6 to 9.5 furlongs since 2014, and with today's conditions in mind, here's how he got some of those 19 winners...

  • 17 from 118 (14.4%) for 34.1pts (+28.9%) from male runners
  • 17 from 100 (17%) for 41.8pts (+41.8%) running 1 to 6 weeks after their last run
  • 16 from 55 (29.1%) for 34.3pts (+62.4%) who were sent off at odds of 5/4 to 8/1
  • 15 from 79 (19%) for 44.5pts (+56.3%) from those with 1 to 4 previous track wins
  • 14 from 103 (13.6%) for 43pts (+41.7%) from those racing in fields of 9-12 runners
  • 13 from 74 (17.6%) for 20pts (+27.1%) from those racing off a mark of 46 to 61
  • 10 from 59 (16.9%) for 45.4pts (+76.9%) from those aged 6 to 8 yrs old
  • 10 from 50 (20%) for 35.2pts (+70.4%) from those with 1 or 2 previous course and distance wins
  • and 2 from 6 (33.3%) for 8pts (+133.3%) with Jason Hart in the saddle

...whilst, since the start of 2016 : males + 5/4 to 6/1 + 1-4 track wins + 1-6 weeks since last run = 10/21 (47.6% SR) for 20.7pts (+98.4% ROI)...

...giving us a... a 1pt win bet on Arrowzone 4/1 BOG which was available from Betfair, Bet365 & Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Sunday evening. There was also some 9/2 non-BOG in places, but if you can, do take the 5/1 BOG from Hills as I've done! To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th March 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

3.50 Lingfield : Deep Intrigue @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 15/8 (tracked leader, ridden to lead entering final furlong, headed towards finish and beaten by a neck)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Arrowzone 4/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m1½f on tapeta, worth £2264 to the winner...

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding seems to love it here winning 5 of 18 starts, with the last win coming two runs ago off a mark of 59. He couldn't replicate that form under a penalty last time out, but now back to his proper mark, should give another good account of himself under favourable conditions, as from his Wolverhampton record of 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 4.18pts (+23.2% ROI), all at 8.5 to 9.5 furlongs, he is...

  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 3.19pts (+18.8%) in handicaps
  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 3.19pts (+18.8%) on the Tapeta track
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 8.19pts (+58.5%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 6.19pts (+44.2%) at Class 6
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 7.19pts (+55.3%) off a mark of 50-60
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 8.19pts (+68.2%) wearing blinkers
  • and 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.18pts (+83.5%) in fields of 12-13 runners

...AND...when, like today, all of the above factors are in play :  4/7 (57.1% SR) for 13.19pts (+188.4% ROI).

Moreover, his trainer Kevin Frost is 19 from 138 (13.8% SR) for 31.2pts (+22.6% ROI) in handicaps here over 6 to 9.5 furlongs since 2014, and with today's conditions in mind, here's how he got some of those 19 winners...

  • 17 from 118 (14.4%) for 34.1pts (+28.9%) from male runners
  • 17 from 100 (17%) for 41.8pts (+41.8%) running 1 to 6 weeks after their last run
  • 16 from 55 (29.1%) for 34.3pts (+62.4%) who were sent off at odds of 5/4 to 8/1
  • 15 from 79 (19%) for 44.5pts (+56.3%) from those with 1 to 4 previous track wins
  • 14 from 103 (13.6%) for 43pts (+41.7%) from those racing in fields of 9-12 runners
  • 13 from 74 (17.6%) for 20pts (+27.1%) from those racing off a mark of 46 to 61
  • 10 from 59 (16.9%) for 45.4pts (+76.9%) from those aged 6 to 8 yrs old
  • 10 from 50 (20%) for 35.2pts (+70.4%) from those with 1 or 2 previous course and distance wins
  • and 2 from 6 (33.3%) for 8pts (+133.3%) with Jason Hart in the saddle

...whilst, since the start of 2016 : males + 5/4 to 6/1 + 1-4 track wins + 1-6 weeks since last run = 10/21 (47.6% SR) for 20.7pts (+98.4% ROI)...

...giving us a... a 1pt win bet on Arrowzone 4/1 BOG which was available from Betfair, Bet365 & Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Sunday evening. There was also some 9/2 non-BOG in places, but if you can, do take the 5/1 BOG from Hills as I've done! To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th February 2019

Monday's Pick was...

3.55 Ayr : Casual Cavalier @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 10/3 (Tracked leader, led 4 out, strongly challenged 2 out, headed final 50 yards, no extra)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

7.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Debbonair 10/3 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo, A/W Handicap over 1m4f on Tapeta, worth £2911 to the winner...

Why?

A 3 yr old gelding in decent enough form on the A/W this winter finishing 132, all on Polytrack and always looking like he needs further. Well, he steps up another 2f tonight for his Tapeta/Wolverhampton debut and I'd expect him to go well again.

Ben Curtis is in the saddle tonight and although this is his first ever ride here at Wolverhampton on a Hugo Palmer-trained horse, he did ride 12 winners from 32 (37.5% SR) for the trainer last year with a £10 bet on each runner yielding £197 profit at an ROI of 61.5%, including 10 wins from 18 (55.6%) for 11.21pts (+62.3%) at Class 5 and 2 from 8 (25%) for 2.06pts (+25.7%) on the A/W.

Hugo Palmer's own record here at Dunstall Park is good with 31 winners from 117 (26.9% SR) for 73.2pts (+62.6% ROI) profit since 2012 and these include of relevance today...

  • on Tapeta : 28/104 (26.9%) for 38.5pts (+37%)
  • Wolves debutants : 23/85 (27.1%) for 55.3pts (+65%)
  • Class 5 : 21/73 (28.8%) for 64.1pts (+87.9%)
  • 11-45 days since last run : 22/72 (30.6%) for 69.6pts (+96.7%)
  • Tapeta debutants : 21/72 (29.2%) for 56.5pts (+78.5%)
  • males : 19/56 (33.9%) for 23.4pts (+41.8%)
  • in handicaps : 13/50 (26%) for 50.9pts (+101.8%)
  • 2nd to 5th LTO : 19/49 (38.9%) for 79.7pts (+162.6%)
  • up in trip : 11/43 (25.6%) for 39.6pts (+92.1%)
  • and in February : 4/7 (57.1%) for 2.59pts (+36.9%)

...whilst more generally, Hugo's runners stepping up in trip are 106/578 (18.3% SR) for 378.5pts (+65.5% ROI), which is an angle worth keeping an eye on, as is the fact that in UK A/W contests, his runners with at least 1 career run to their name, now tackling a particular A/W surface for the first time are 62/230 (27% SR) for 112.2pts (+48.8% ROI), including...

  • Tapeta debuts : 28/86 (32.6%) for 55.8pts (+64.9%)
  • in handicaps : 21/80 (26.3%) for 69.3pts (+86.6%)
  • and here at Wolverhampton : 19/56 (33.9%) for 65.6pts (+117.2%)

...from which...tapeta debutants in Wolverhampton handicaps are 6/19 (31.6% SR) for 15.79pts (+83.1% ROI), with 5 winners from 14 (35.7%) for 9.93pts (+70.9%) since the start of 2017...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Debbonair 10/3 BOG which was available from BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.00pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd February 2019

Friday's Pick was...

2.50 Warwick : Doitforthevillage @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Held up in rear, hit 2nd, steady headway on outside chasing leaders before 2 out, hung left between last 2, switched right and kept on run-in, went never nearer 3rd towards finish, 2.25L off the pace)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

5.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Steelriver 9/2 or 4/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, 4yo+, A/W Handicap over 6f on Tapeta, worth £2426 to the winner...

Why?

Well, you'd be forgiven for thinking I'd lost the plot in backing a 9 yr old gelding who hasn't won for a while (56 races over almost 52 months if we're being specific!), but in my/his defence he has looked more like winning since returning to Michael Herrington's yard, where he was relatively successful during a 13-month stay in 2014/15.

He has made the frame in each of the three races since the switch of yard and his three defeats have come at a combined deficit of less than 1.5 lengths and only went down by a neck LTO, 8 days ago in another Class 6, 6f, A/W (Tapeta) handicap, when partnered by today's jockey for the first time.

His long losing run has taken his career record from a reasonable 3/20 to an admittedly pretty poor 3/76, but it's interesting (to me, at least!), that of his three career victories...

  • all were on the A/W
  • 2 were in handicaps
  • 2 for Michael Herrington
  • 1 at 6f
  • 1 here at Wolverhampton

Trainer Michael has himself had some joy here at Dunstall Park in recent years, especially at the sharper end of the market, with 9 winners from 31 (29% SR) generating 19.04pts profit at an ROI of 61.4% with runners sent off at 6/1 or shorter in handicaps here since the start of 2015. Of relevance today of those 31 runners...

  • over trips of 5/6f : 6/19 (31.6%) for 11.98pts (+63.1%)
  • at Class 6 : 6/17 (35.3%) for 18.26pts (+107.4%)
  • Feb-April : 5/14 (35.7%) for 16.14pts (+115.3%)
  • in 2018 (no quals yet this year) : 4/14 (28.6%) for 8.87pts (+63.3%)
  • top 2 finish LTO : 4/13 (30.8%) for 9.86pts (+75.8%)
  • 7-14 days since last run : 6/12 (50%) for 17.56pts (+146.3%)
  • and over this 6f C&D : 3/11 (27.3%) for 7.37pts (+67%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Steelriver 9/2 or 4/1 BOG which was available from Bet365 and Hills respectively at 5.45pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th February 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

6.45 Kempton : Scofflaw @ 13/2 BOG 4th at 9/1 (Took keen hold, led early, prominent, ridden over 1f out, kept on final furlong op 7/1)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.25 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Mrs Burbidge @ 13/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m4on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

We're looking at a trainer, jockey and horse who both individually and collectively fare well in today's conditions. Here are some of the specifics:

Trainer Neil Mulholland has a 16% win rate at the track in the last five years (16/100, +19.98), which improves to 18% (13/72, +34.48) when we home in on low grade (Class 5 or lower) handicaps.

The booking of Adam Kirby looks significant. Kirby leads the All Weather Jockeys' Championship at the moment, and has a 22% win rate at the track in the last year, for a profit at SP of 25.26 points.

When pairing up, Mulholland and Kirby are 8 from 22 in the last two years (36%, +22.13); and when pairing up in low grade handicaps that record improves to 6 from 14 (43%, +13.73).

The horse herself is a nine-year-old now, and she's run at Wolverhampton seven times before. While she's only won once, she's hit the frame on five occasions, with a full form string of 1522332.

This is the first time she gets the Kirby treatment and, on her last two runs here, he'd only have to find a length of improvement to convert those narrow course and distance defeats (by a length and a neck) into victory

 ...giving us a rare 1/2 point each way bet on Mrs Burbidge @ 13/2 BOG which was available with Betfair and Paddy Power at 5.35pm on Sunday evening (Betbright 6/1, 11/2 general). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.25 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th February 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

6.45 Kempton : Scofflaw @ 13/2 BOG 4th at 9/1 (Took keen hold, led early, prominent, ridden over 1f out, kept on final furlong op 7/1)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.25 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mrs Burbidge @ 13/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m4on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

We're looking at a trainer, jockey and horse who both individually and collectively fare well in today's conditions. Here are some of the specifics:

Trainer Neil Mulholland has a 16% win rate at the track in the last five years (16/100, +19.98), which improves to 18% (13/72, +34.48) when we home in on low grade (Class 5 or lower) handicaps.

The booking of Adam Kirby looks significant. Kirby leads the All Weather Jockeys' Championship at the moment, and has a 22% win rate at the track in the last year, for a profit at SP of 25.26 points.

When pairing up, Mulholland and Kirby are 8 from 22 in the last two years (36%, +22.13); and when pairing up in low grade handicaps that record improves to 6 from 14 (43%, +13.73).

The horse herself is a nine-year-old now, and she's run at Wolverhampton seven times before. While she's only won once, she's hit the frame on five occasions, with a full form string of 1522332.

This is the first time she gets the Kirby treatment and, on her last two runs here, he'd only have to find a length of improvement to convert those narrow course and distance defeats (by a length and a neck) into victory

 ...giving us a rare 1/2 point each way bet on Mrs Burbidge @ 13/2 BOG which was available with Betfair and Paddy Power at 5.35pm on Sunday evening (Betbright 6/1, 11/2 general). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.25 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st February 2019

Thursday's Pick was...

6.25 Newcastle : Portledge@ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Held up, headway over 1f out, chased winner inside final furlong, kept on well under pressure, but beaten by half a length)

Friday's pick runs in the...

1.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Swiss Cross @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 7f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

Firstly, apologies for the lateness (almost 9.30am) of the write-up, I had to do the school run in the snow as all the school buses were cancelled round these parts, but I'm hoping the huge swathe of data I'm going to present will be worth the wait!

On a poor day of racing with very little of statistical interest to me, I thought this 12 yr old gelding (yes, 12!) was worth a punt at the odds offered, considering he has form at both track and trip in the past and was also flagged up three times on my daily "angles sheet", starting with...

...offspring of Cape Cross... are 47/123 (38.2% SR) for 64.2pts (+52.2% ROI) since the start of 2015 when sent off at odds of 11/10 to 5/1 on Tapeta, including of relevance today :

  • Prize money of less than £8k : 42/111 (37.8%) for 52.2pts (+47%)
  • Wolverhampton : 40/98 (40.8%) for 60.8pts (+62%)
  • Males : 34/84 (40.5%) for 58.3pts (+69.5%)
  • Class 6 : 11/28 (39.3%) for 15.8pts (+56.3%)
  • 4-10 days since last run : 7/14 950%) for 16.33pts (+116.6%)
  • Over 7 furlongs : 8/20 (40%) for 8.26pts (+41.3%)

...and males competing for less than £8,000 at Wolverhampton are 28/65 (43.1% SR) for 49.5pts (+76.2% ROI)...

Then we have trainer Phil McEntee, whose Wolverhampton A/W handicappers sent off 6/4 to 9/1 since 2012 are 18/81 (22.2% SR) for 50.5pts (+62.3% ROI) and here are some of the ways (all in play today) how he got those winners...

  • Sub-£4k prize money : 18/75 (24%) for 56.5pts (+75.3%)
  • Males : 17/69 (24.6%) for 59.5pts (+86.2%)
  • 4-21 dslr : 16/63 (25.4%) for 57.1pts (+90.6%)
  • 6-10 runners : 15/47 (31.9%) for 65pts (+138.2%)
  • Tapeta : 13/50 (26%) for 32pts (+64%)
  • Feb/March : 11/29 (37.9%) for 57.8pts (+199.2%)
  • Class 6 : 11/50 (22%) for 22.1pts (+44.2%)
  • OR 46-54 : 9/31 (29%) for 38pts (+122.7%)
  • Over 7f : 7/25 (28%) for 35.6pts (+142.3%)

...and males racing 4-21 dslr in fields of 6-10 runners for less than £4k are 12/24 (50% SR) for 73.5pts (+306.3% ROI) with 8 of the last 12 winning...

And finally for today (!)... Phil McEntee's UK handicappers running within a fortnight of a top 3 finish LTO are 38 from 200 (19% SR) for 42.6pts (+21.3% ROI) since the start of 2014, with the following of particular relevance today...

  • On the A/W : 29/145 (20%) for 23.6pts (+16.3%)
  • At 9/4 to 13/2 : 32/98 (32.7%) for 53.3pts (+54.4%)
  • Jan-April : 25/98 (25.5%) for 46.6pts (+47.5%)
  • 2018-19 : 15/74 (20.3%) for 49.53pts (+66.9%)
  • Over 7f : 16/62 (25.8%) for 35.1pts (+56.5%)
  • At Wolverhampton : 9/33 (27.3%) for 7.9pts (+23.9%)
  • On Tapeta : 8/30 (26.7%) for 7.8pts (+26.1%)

...and over 5-7f on the A/W at odds of 9/4 to 13/2 during Jan-April : 15/37 (40.5% SR) for 33.9pts (+91.7% ROI)...

 ...giving us a 1pt win bet on Swiss Cross @ 11/4 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Sky at 6.35pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th January 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

2.30 Lingfield : Aguerooo @ 4/1 BOG WON at 7/2 (Held up and behind on inside, headway over 1f out, ridden to lead well inside final furlong, ran on)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.50 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

French Mix @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m6on Tapeta worth £3619 to the winner...

Why?

Here we have a 5 yr old Mare with five top three finishes from her last seven outings (all under today's jockey, 5lb claimer Hannah Welch) including 2 wins from her last 5 runs and she was a winner LTO just 3 days ago by 3 lengths over 1m4f in another Class 5 handicap.

To date, she has 4 wins and 2 places from 16 A/W handicap outings and they include...

  • 4 wins, 2 places from 11 at 1m4f to 1m6f
  • 3w, 2pl from 11 for trainer Alex Dunn
  • 2w, 2pl from 8 within a fortnight of her last run
  • 3 wins from 7 at Class 5
  • 3 wins from 6 in fields of 7-10 runners
  • 1wm 1pl from 5 here at Wolverhampton
  • and 1w, 1pl from 3 under Hannah Welch

She's by Dalakhani, whose offspring are 9/51 (17.7% SR) for 127.8pts (+250.6% ROI) in Tapeta handicaps since the start of 2016 after not running on Tapeta LTO and these include...

  • 7/34 (20.6%) for 5.3pts (+15.5%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 9/29 (32.1%) for 150.8pts (+538.6%) from August to January inclusive
  • 5/24 (20.8%) for 129.8pts (+540.6%) over trips of 1m4f and beyond
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 27.3pts (+130.1%) when sent off at 8/1 or shorter
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 142.4pts (+791%) from October to January
  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 141.7pts (+833.6%) within 15 days of their last run

And trainer Alex Dunn (who admittedly is probably better known to you for training class 4/5 handicap jumpers) is 10/26 (38.5% SR) for 55.9pts (+214.8% ROI) since the start of 2018 with her A/W runners turned back out within 25 days of a top 3 finish LTO and these include...

  • in handicaps : 9/24 (37.5%) for 48.9pts (+203.7%)
  • 4-7 yr olds : 10/22 (45.5%) for 59.9pts (+272.3%)
  • not dropping in class : 10/20 (50%) for 61.9pts (+309.5%)
  • same class as LTO : 7/15 (46.7%) for 43.1pts (+287.5%)
  • over 1m4f to 2m : 6/13 (46.2%) for 35.8pts (+275.7%)
  • at Wolverhampton : 5/12 (41.7%) for 33.9pts (+282.8%)
  • LTO winners are 4/9 (44.4%) for 16.2pts (+180%)
  • at Class 5 : 4/7 (57.1%) for 27.7pts (+395%)
  • in January : 4/6 (66.6%) for 22.5pts (+375.3%)
  • less than 5 days rest : 2/2 (100%) for 5.8pts (+290%)
  • and over 1m6f : 1/2 950%) for 9.96pts (+498%)

...whilst 4-7 yr old handicappers at the same class as LTO are 6/11 (54.5% SR) for 38.14pts (+346.7% ROI)...

 ..giving us a 1pt win bet on French Mix @ 11/4 BOG as was available from at least 10 firms at 5.35pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th January 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

2.30 Lingfield : Aguerooo @ 4/1 BOG WON at 7/2 (Held up and behind on inside, headway over 1f out, ridden to lead well inside final furlong, ran on)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.50 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

French Mix @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m6on Tapeta worth £3619 to the winner...

Why?

Here we have a 5 yr old Mare with five top three finishes from her last seven outings (all under today's jockey, 5lb claimer Hannah Welch) including 2 wins from her last 5 runs and she was a winner LTO just 3 days ago by 3 lengths over 1m4f in another Class 5 handicap.

To date, she has 4 wins and 2 places from 16 A/W handicap outings and they include...

  • 4 wins, 2 places from 11 at 1m4f to 1m6f
  • 3w, 2pl from 11 for trainer Alex Dunn
  • 2w, 2pl from 8 within a fortnight of her last run
  • 3 wins from 7 at Class 5
  • 3 wins from 6 in fields of 7-10 runners
  • 1wm 1pl from 5 here at Wolverhampton
  • and 1w, 1pl from 3 under Hannah Welch

She's by Dalakhani, whose offspring are 9/51 (17.7% SR) for 127.8pts (+250.6% ROI) in Tapeta handicaps since the start of 2016 after not running on Tapeta LTO and these include...

  • 7/34 (20.6%) for 5.3pts (+15.5%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 9/29 (32.1%) for 150.8pts (+538.6%) from August to January inclusive
  • 5/24 (20.8%) for 129.8pts (+540.6%) over trips of 1m4f and beyond
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 27.3pts (+130.1%) when sent off at 8/1 or shorter
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 142.4pts (+791%) from October to January
  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 141.7pts (+833.6%) within 15 days of their last run

And trainer Alex Dunn (who admittedly is probably better known to you for training class 4/5 handicap jumpers) is 10/26 (38.5% SR) for 55.9pts (+214.8% ROI) since the start of 2018 with her A/W runners turned back out within 25 days of a top 3 finish LTO and these include...

  • in handicaps : 9/24 (37.5%) for 48.9pts (+203.7%)
  • 4-7 yr olds : 10/22 (45.5%) for 59.9pts (+272.3%)
  • not dropping in class : 10/20 (50%) for 61.9pts (+309.5%)
  • same class as LTO : 7/15 (46.7%) for 43.1pts (+287.5%)
  • over 1m4f to 2m : 6/13 (46.2%) for 35.8pts (+275.7%)
  • at Wolverhampton : 5/12 (41.7%) for 33.9pts (+282.8%)
  • LTO winners are 4/9 (44.4%) for 16.2pts (+180%)
  • at Class 5 : 4/7 (57.1%) for 27.7pts (+395%)
  • in January : 4/6 (66.6%) for 22.5pts (+375.3%)
  • less than 5 days rest : 2/2 (100%) for 5.8pts (+290%)
  • and over 1m6f : 1/2 950%) for 9.96pts (+498%)

...whilst 4-7 yr old handicappers at the same class as LTO are 6/11 (54.5% SR) for 38.14pts (+346.7% ROI)...

 ..giving us a 1pt win bet on French Mix @ 11/4 BOG as was available from at least 10 firms at 5.35pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th January 2019

Thursday's Pick was...

12.45 Southwell : Azari @ 11/4 BOG WON at 4/1 (Made all, quickened 3 lengths clear 3f out, ran on unchallenged to win by 7 lengths)

Friday's pick runs in the...

7.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

A Sure Welcome @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 6f on tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding was only beaten by a short head last time out, when running over this very same course and distance 25 days ago, finishing 2 lengths clear of The Golden Cue, who went on to win over 6f last week.

That result took our boy's career figures to 6 wins and 4 places from 18 starts on the A/W with the 33.3% win strike rate generating level stakes profits of 43.9pts at an ROI of some 243.7%, all in handicaps. With regards to this contest, those figures include...

  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 44.9pts (+264.1%) in fields of 10-14 runners
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 27.3pts (+210.1%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 35.67pts (+396.3%) after a break of just 11-25 days
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 18.1pts (+362%) with the above three conditions all in play together

His suitability for the task ahead is backed up by the fact he and his fellow offspring of the sire Pastoral Pursuits (who himself had 6 wins and 2 places from 8 at 6/7 furlongs, including winning a Group 1) are 40 from 170 (23.5% SR) for 108.9pts (64.1% ROI) when sent off at odds of 6/4 to 12/1 over 5f to a mile on Tapeta and these include of relevance today...

  • in fields of 8-14 runners : 37/154 (24%) for 105.6pts (+68.6%)
  • in handicaps : 32/146 (21.9%) for 102.8pts (+70.4%)
  • competing for less than £4,000 : 34/135 (25.2%) for 110.4pts (+81.8%)
  • males : 28/125 (22.4%) for 88.5pts (+70.8%)
  • over the last 3yrs : 31/121 (25.6%) for 103.6pts (+85.6%)
  • 1-25 days since last run : 30/111 (27%) for 84.8pts (+76.4%)
  • top 3 finish LTO : 22/69 (31.9%) for 61.8pts (+89.6%)
  • Class 5 : 17/63 (27%) for 54.5pts (+86.5%)
  • over 6f : 13/59 (22%) for 46.8pts (+79.4%)
  • 5/6 yr olds : 17/55 (30.9%) for 41.4pts (+75.2%)
  • off a mark of 70-80 : 14/45 (31.1%) for 38.6pts (+85.8%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on A Sure Welcome @ 7/2 BOG as was offered by a half dozen or so firms at 5.50pm on Thursday evening, although those with an unrestricted Coral account could get an extra half point if they were lucky/quick. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th December 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

1.35 Haydock : Ontopoftheworld @ 7/1 BOG 7th at 9/1 (Led until 1st, led and not fluent next, headed 8th, mistake 3 out, weakened next)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.05 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Critical Thinking @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £4787 to the winner... 

Why?

Our horse...

...is a 4yr old gelding who won over course and distance LTO at a higher grade 11 days ago and now comes here with a record that includes making the frame in 9 of 19 runs (47.4%) on this track, including winning four times (21% SR).

On the A/W in general, he has 5 wins and 6 places from 15 runs this year, he has 4 wins and 3 places from 11 races at this 7f trip, including 3 wins and a place from 7 efforts over course and distance and he has four wins and three places from the 8 contests that he was sent off at odds of 4/1 or shorter.

Our trainer...

...is David Loughnane, whose 30-day record stands at 5 wins from 17 (29.4% SR) for 29.84pts (+175.9% ROI) profit and this includes...

  • on Tapeta : 5/11 (45.5%) for 35.84pts (+325.8%)
  • at Wolverhampton : 3/8 (37.5%) for 28.42pts (+355.3%)
  • and over 7f on Tapeta : 3/5 (60%) for 22.76pts (+455.1%)

Our jockey...

...Jason Watson has won 11 of 46 (23.9% SR) races here at Wolverhampton in the past nine months, generating level stakes profits of 37pts at an ROI of 80.4%, including...

  • at 5f to 8.5f : 11/38 (28.9%) for 45pts (+118.4%)
  • in hcps : 7/35 (20%) for 32.4pts (+92.4%)
  • at 7/1 and shorter : 10/27 (37%) for 16pts (+59.3%)
  • and at Class 5 : 6/17 (35.3%) for 8pts (+47%)

And our horse's sire...

...is Art Connoisseur, whose offspring are 6/23 (26.1% SR) for 42.9pts (+186.4% ROI) over 6/7 furlongs on Tapeta over the last two years, including...

  • in hcps : 6/22 (27.3%) for 43.9pts (+199.5%) - all males
  • at Wolves : 5/17 (29.4%) for 38.8pts (+228.1%) - all male handicappers
  • 4 yr olds are 3/7 (42.9%) for 20.7pts (+295%) - all males in Wolves hcps
  • and Class 5 male handicappers here at Wolves are 2 from 6 (33.3%) for 10.4pts (+173.2%)

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Critical Thinking @ 4/1 BOG, as was available from pretty much everyone at 12.35am on Wednesday morning, but Bet365 were offering half a point more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.05 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out/away from my PC on Boxing Day afternoon, so Thursday's pick will appear later than usual on Wednesday night.

Stat of the Day, 17th December 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

4.20 Newcastle : Another Angel @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 5/4 (Held up in mid-division, pushed along over 2f out, headway over 1f out, ran on to take 2nd near finish, no chance with winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Burtonwood @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap  for 3yo+ over 6f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding has finished 161 in his last three runs, all under today's jockey CJ McGovern, who once again claims 3lbs. The latest of those runs was a course and distance success here where our boy was more comfortable than a one length success would suggest, having been clear for the best part of the final furlong.

That win took his career stats to a point that includes the following...

  • 5 wins & 3 places from 25 over 6 furlongs (2w, 3pl from 9 on A/W)
  • 2 from 6 in a visor (2/3 on A/W)
  • 2 from 5 under CJ McGovern (2/3 on A/W)

His trainer, Julie Camacho, isn't exactly a household name outside of her own home and she's not what you'd call prolific, but she's quietly pretty good at getting certain horses to win certain races and although it would have been a bit of a rollercoaster ride, you might be surprised to hear/read that blindly backing all her handicappers over the last six years would have been a profitable venture!

Numerically, you'd be looking at 66 winners from 589 runners with the resultant 11.2% strike rate yielding 66.05pts profit at an ROI of 11.2%. Neither the SR nor the ROI are earth shattering on the face of it, but to make more than 10% from a "set & forget" approach is actually very good. To see which types of runners/races work best for Julie...

  • in races worth less than £13,000 : 63/554 (11.4%) for 71.7pts (+12.9%)
  • males are 55/485 (11.3%) for 115.2pts (+23.8%)
  • over trips shorter than a mile : 52/368 (14.1%) for 188.1pts (+51.1%)
  • Mondays to Thursdays : 36/314 (11.5%) for 50.3pts (+16%)
  • Class 5 : 26/247 (10.5%) for 69pts (+28%)
  • in 2018 : 21/136 (15.4%) for 17.9pts (+13.2%)
  • over 6f : 14/106 (13.2%) for 77pts (+72.6%)
  • November to February : 15/100 (15%) for 46.4pts (+46.4%)
  • on Mondays : 12/89 (13.5%) for 61.5pts (+69.1%)
  • using a jockey claiming 3lbs : 18/84 (21.4%) for 88.2pts (+105%)
  • 6 yr olds are 13/80 (16.25%) for 26pts (+32.5%)
  • and those ridden by CJ McGovern are 3/10 (30%) for 17.7pts (+177%)

...and from the above... Since the start of 2013, Julie Camacho's male handicappers racing over trips shorter than a mile for a prize of less than £13,000 are 41 from 276 (14.9% SR) for profits of 225.3pts (+81.6% ROI), from which her 3-6 yr olds are 37/229 (16.2%) for 243.2pts (+106.2% ROI) : an angle worth noting and popping in your portfolio.

...and which gives us... a 1pt win bet on Burtonwood @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by Bet365, Betfair, BetVictor & Unibet at 6.05pm on Sunday evening with an extra quarter of a point available from Paddy Power. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th December 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

4.20 Newcastle : Another Angel @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 5/4 (Held up in mid-division, pushed along over 2f out, headway over 1f out, ran on to take 2nd near finish, no chance with winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Burtonwood @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap  for 3yo+ over 6f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding has finished 161 in his last three runs, all under today's jockey CJ McGovern, who once again claims 3lbs. The latest of those runs was a course and distance success here where our boy was more comfortable than a one length success would suggest, having been clear for the best part of the final furlong.

That win took his career stats to a point that includes the following...

  • 5 wins & 3 places from 25 over 6 furlongs (2w, 3pl from 9 on A/W)
  • 2 from 6 in a visor (2/3 on A/W)
  • 2 from 5 under CJ McGovern (2/3 on A/W)

His trainer, Julie Camacho, isn't exactly a household name outside of her own home and she's not what you'd call prolific, but she's quietly pretty good at getting certain horses to win certain races and although it would have been a bit of a rollercoaster ride, you might be surprised to hear/read that blindly backing all her handicappers over the last six years would have been a profitable venture!

Numerically, you'd be looking at 66 winners from 589 runners with the resultant 11.2% strike rate yielding 66.05pts profit at an ROI of 11.2%. Neither the SR nor the ROI are earth shattering on the face of it, but to make more than 10% from a "set & forget" approach is actually very good. To see which types of runners/races work best for Julie...

  • in races worth less than £13,000 : 63/554 (11.4%) for 71.7pts (+12.9%)
  • males are 55/485 (11.3%) for 115.2pts (+23.8%)
  • over trips shorter than a mile : 52/368 (14.1%) for 188.1pts (+51.1%)
  • Mondays to Thursdays : 36/314 (11.5%) for 50.3pts (+16%)
  • Class 5 : 26/247 (10.5%) for 69pts (+28%)
  • in 2018 : 21/136 (15.4%) for 17.9pts (+13.2%)
  • over 6f : 14/106 (13.2%) for 77pts (+72.6%)
  • November to February : 15/100 (15%) for 46.4pts (+46.4%)
  • on Mondays : 12/89 (13.5%) for 61.5pts (+69.1%)
  • using a jockey claiming 3lbs : 18/84 (21.4%) for 88.2pts (+105%)
  • 6 yr olds are 13/80 (16.25%) for 26pts (+32.5%)
  • and those ridden by CJ McGovern are 3/10 (30%) for 17.7pts (+177%)

...and from the above... Since the start of 2013, Julie Camacho's male handicappers racing over trips shorter than a mile for a prize of less than £13,000 are 41 from 276 (14.9% SR) for profits of 225.3pts (+81.6% ROI), from which her 3-6 yr olds are 37/229 (16.2%) for 243.2pts (+106.2% ROI) : an angle worth noting and popping in your portfolio.

...and which gives us... a 1pt win bet on Burtonwood @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by Bet365, Betfair, BetVictor & Unibet at 6.05pm on Sunday evening with an extra quarter of a point available from Paddy Power. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd December 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

1.50 Newbury : Speedo Boy @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Shade keen tracking leaders, 3rd and one pace from 2 out, blundered last)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.15 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Boscastle @ 3/1 BOG  

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap  for 3yo over 1m1½f on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old filly was a decent second off this mark at Chelmsford last time out, that was over slightly longer (1m2f) over at Chelmsford 18 days ago and a similar level of performance now switched to slightly shorter on Tapeta could well be the key to her breaking her maiden tag.

She's actually been running pretty well with two runner-up finishes sandwiching another couple of decent efforts in her last four outings and in what looks a fairly weak (albeit open) contest, she could well finally go one better.

I mention the switch of surface possibly being a help today and this is backed up by the fact that since the start of 2015, offspring of Sea The Stars are 8 from 42 (19.1% SR) for 8.9pts (+21.2% ROI) in A/W handicaps on Tapeta, having not run on the surface last time out. Of relevance today and from those 42 runners...

  • those who ran on the A/W LTO are 6/20 (30%) for 21.63pts (+108.2%)
  • 3 yr olds are 5/20 (25%) for 3.6pts (+18%)
  • females are 5/19 (26.3%) for 22.2pts (+116.8%)
  • over trips of 1m to 1m2f : 5/18 (27.8%) for 18.56pts (+103.1%)
  • after a short 11-20 day break : 4/14 (28.6%) for 22.5pts (+160.7%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/11 (27.3%) for 19.9pts (+180.9%)
  • and those who ran at Chelmsford LTO are 2/8 (25%) for 11.2pts (+139.5%)

*

7lb claimer Oliver Stammers is in the saddle today and in his short 10-month career so far has won 10 of 84 (11.9% SR) races, which is a decent enough start, but of those 84 races, he has done particularly well in A/W handicaps, winning 6 of 35 (17.1% SR) for 18.4pts (+52.5% ROI) profits, including...

  • at Class 6 : 5/25 (20%) for 21.6pts (+86.4%)
  • over trips of 1m1.5f and beyond : 5/16 (31.25%) for 33.07pts (+206.7%)
  • and at Class 6 over trips of 1m1.5f and beyond : 4/14 (28.6%) for 28.3pts (+202.2%)

*

Plus there's a distinct possibility that our pick will go off as favourite today and considering that blindly backing favs is a quick way to the poor house, you might be surprised to discover that backing favs trained by Hughie Morrison is actually a profitable venture.

Blindly backing such runners has turned a profit in 10 of the last 12 years and since the start of 2011 (having made a loss in 2010!), those favs are 142/411 (34.6% SR) for 33.8pts (+8.2% ROI), from which the last five years have seen 89 winners from 253 (35.2%) for 29.3pts (+11.6%) profit including...

  • in handicaps : 61/189 (32.3%) for 26pts (+13.7%)
  • female runners are 36/101 (35.6%) for 13.5pts (+13.4%)
  • female handicappers are 24/72 (33.3%) for 12.14pts (+16.9%)
  • and female handicappers on the A/W are 13 from 33 (39.4%) for 7.27pts (+22%)

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Boscastle @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by Betfair, Paddy Power & SkyBet at 5.35pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd December 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

1.50 Newbury : Speedo Boy @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Shade keen tracking leaders, 3rd and one pace from 2 out, blundered last)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.15 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Boscastle @ 3/1 BOG  

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap  for 3yo over 1m1½f on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old filly was a decent second off this mark at Chelmsford last time out, that was over slightly longer (1m2f) over at Chelmsford 18 days ago and a similar level of performance now switched to slightly shorter on Tapeta could well be the key to her breaking her maiden tag.

She's actually been running pretty well with two runner-up finishes sandwiching another couple of decent efforts in her last four outings and in what looks a fairly weak (albeit open) contest, she could well finally go one better.

I mention the switch of surface possibly being a help today and this is backed up by the fact that since the start of 2015, offspring of Sea The Stars are 8 from 42 (19.1% SR) for 8.9pts (+21.2% ROI) in A/W handicaps on Tapeta, having not run on the surface last time out. Of relevance today and from those 42 runners...

  • those who ran on the A/W LTO are 6/20 (30%) for 21.63pts (+108.2%)
  • 3 yr olds are 5/20 (25%) for 3.6pts (+18%)
  • females are 5/19 (26.3%) for 22.2pts (+116.8%)
  • over trips of 1m to 1m2f : 5/18 (27.8%) for 18.56pts (+103.1%)
  • after a short 11-20 day break : 4/14 (28.6%) for 22.5pts (+160.7%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/11 (27.3%) for 19.9pts (+180.9%)
  • and those who ran at Chelmsford LTO are 2/8 (25%) for 11.2pts (+139.5%)

*

7lb claimer Oliver Stammers is in the saddle today and in his short 10-month career so far has won 10 of 84 (11.9% SR) races, which is a decent enough start, but of those 84 races, he has done particularly well in A/W handicaps, winning 6 of 35 (17.1% SR) for 18.4pts (+52.5% ROI) profits, including...

  • at Class 6 : 5/25 (20%) for 21.6pts (+86.4%)
  • over trips of 1m1.5f and beyond : 5/16 (31.25%) for 33.07pts (+206.7%)
  • and at Class 6 over trips of 1m1.5f and beyond : 4/14 (28.6%) for 28.3pts (+202.2%)

*

Plus there's a distinct possibility that our pick will go off as favourite today and considering that blindly backing favs is a quick way to the poor house, you might be surprised to discover that backing favs trained by Hughie Morrison is actually a profitable venture.

Blindly backing such runners has turned a profit in 10 of the last 12 years and since the start of 2011 (having made a loss in 2010!), those favs are 142/411 (34.6% SR) for 33.8pts (+8.2% ROI), from which the last five years have seen 89 winners from 253 (35.2%) for 29.3pts (+11.6%) profit including...

  • in handicaps : 61/189 (32.3%) for 26pts (+13.7%)
  • female runners are 36/101 (35.6%) for 13.5pts (+13.4%)
  • female handicappers are 24/72 (33.3%) for 12.14pts (+16.9%)
  • and female handicappers on the A/W are 13 from 33 (39.4%) for 7.27pts (+22%)

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Boscastle @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by Betfair, Paddy Power & SkyBet at 5.35pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!