Tag Archive for: Wolverhampton racecourse

Racing Insights, Thursday 07/09/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.40 Salisbury
  • 5.35 Carlisle
  • 5.45 Wolverhampton
  • 5.55 Clonmel
  • 7.15 Wolverhampton

I'm going to do things in a slightly different order today and I've no idea where it will take me/us! The whole premise of my column is that I put my actions into print in real time and sometimes I end up with nothing. This is perfectly fine, because if there's no bet you like, place no bet and move on!

The highest rated of the four UK races above is the 7.15 Wolverhampton and it also has the most Instant Expert data. The race itself is race 32 of this year's Racing League and it's an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m½f on standard tapeta and here's how the place data for Instant Expert looks for this race...

...where based on overall form, this trio catch the eye most...

...not withstanding that the first of the three has yet to win on the A/W, but has made the frame in all four career starts, whilst the other two are higher in the weights than their last A/W successes, but let's look at the whole card now...

We have no LTO winners here, but all bar Koy Roy and Cry Havoc have a win in their recent form line although both were placed on their latest outings. What's The Story has made the frame in each of his last three and Farasi Lane, Parlando were also placed last time out. There's no real standout on form and we've a real lack of past course/distance success too.

The field have 2 wins and 3 further places from 20 visits to Wolverhampton and have made the frame in 61 of 157 (38.9%) contests over 1m to 1m1f, winning 21 times at a rate of just 13.4, but Harswell Duke did win over this trip at Nottingham on soft ground in October of last year and Young Fire was a Class 5 course and distance winner here back in March.

Parlando last raced a week ago and United Front was seen ten days back, but the remainder have all had two to six weeks rest since their last efforts, from which five are now racing at a different class with Lir Speciale & United Front dropping down a level from Class 2 with Young Fire and the sole female, Cry Havoc both up one class. Night Arc is up two classes after finishing seventh at Newmarket shortly after winning a Class 4 contest, so I'm not sure what to make of him, other than to say he's inconsistent?

We've seen the place data from Instant Expert, but to complete that picture, here's the win percentages...

Not a lot to crow about there, but Lir Speciale is proven in this grade, whilst Hafeet Alain looks generally weak in this context. What's The Story and Young Fire have struggled on standard going with the latter also not faring too well at Class 3, although the former's place stats are far better. Perhaps he's more of a placer than a winner?

The draw has placed the IE weak-looking Hafeet Alain and the double-class riser Night Arc at opposite ends of the stalls, but the general draw data for similar handicaps over the last five years suggests there's not a great deal to be gained from stalls positions...

...although the actually stall-by-stall data & the PRB3 figures do say that those drawn higher than stall nine have tended to struggle and that makes sense, having to travel wider and/or further...

...so that might affect United Front's chances from stall ten. His best bet here in that case is to try and get out sharpish and keep in touch with the pack, as those races above haven't exactly been kind to hold-up horses...

...which doesn't bode well for the likes of Cry Havoc & Young Fire based on recent evidence...

If I was to discount that pair from my list of potential winners, based on pace alone and then remove United Front & Night Arc based on the draw, that leaves me with seven. Hafeet Alain looked weakest on Instant Expert and Cry Havoc is winless in seven. Although What's the Story has made the frame in half of his ten A/W starts, he has won just once, way back in June 2018 and has lost eight on the bounce since then, of which five were on tapeta.

Summary

I'm not saying that the discards can't make the frame, but I've enough reasons not to back any of them for the win, leaving just Lir Royale, Koy Koy, Harswell Duke, Farasi Lane and Parlando as potential winners.

And of those, Lir Speciale would be my pick. His A/W record reads 23311, of which he is 311 at Class 3 and although he's up in trip here, the reports from his last two outings/wins on the A/W read...pressed leader, led over 2f out, ran on well inside final furlong and good headway on inside over 2f out, led over 1f out, ran on well so the trip shouldn't necessarily be an issue here.

Hills are paying four places on this one and at 8/1, he'd be an ideal E/W bet if you're not entirely convinced about his win credentials. 8/1 is my general/nominal cut-off point for E/W bets, so that would currently discount the 5/1 What's The Story and the 6/1 United Front from my original 'trio of interest', but I'm happy to take the 9/1 about Parlando.

Others of possible interest would include Farasi Lane at 8/1 and Koy Koy at 12's.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 17/07/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.35 Ayr
  • 5.50 Killarney
  • 8.20 Killarney
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

I don't really do Irish racing, as most of you know and the Ayr race is a 7-runner novice event where the field of 2 yr olds have a total of ten races between them. This hardly builds up a reliable pace profile, so we're off to the 8.30 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard tapeta...

The indications from Bet365 at 6pm Sunday were that it was a three-horse race (other bookies say four)...

...but if one was to fail we might have a nicely-priced E/W prospect, especially with most firms paying four places so let's see...

At 100/1 in places, I'm just tempted to discard Thunder Sun from the off, but let's crack on with a field with no LTO winners, although Bill Plumb is two from three and Rogue de Vega has a gold and two silvers from hios three career starts. Caesar's Pearl won two starts ago, but we're a bit light of decent form here and Araifjan's chances of ending a 12-race cold spell won't be helped by a step up in class.

Mohareb, Blue Flame, Sergeant Pep and rank outsider Thunder Flame all step down a class here, whilst it's a double drop for top weight Belle Fourche in a race that sees the in-form Rogue de Vega make a handicap debut.

Blue Flame has already won here at Wolverhampton over 7f, whilst Belle Fourche, Bill Plumb, Sergeant Pep, Murbih and Araifjan are former course and distance winners. Of the other half dozen runners, Mohareb, Asadjumeirah and Caesar's Pearl have won over this trip on another track.

The top two on the card, Belle Fourche & Mohareb return from breaks of 231 & 128 days respectively. Bill Plumb has been off for almost ten weeks, but the others have all been in action in the last eight weeks with Asadjumeirah and Erosion Risk having raced this month already.

We have four three year olds in the field in the shape of Rogue de Vega, Sergeant Pep, Caesar's pearl and Erosion Risk and they get a 5lb weight allowance, which should be very useful especially for the in-form handicap debutant Rogue de Vega.

Instant Expert's lowdown on this field's past A/W records show seven former standard going winners and five Class 5 winners as well as the course and distance winners from earlier. Changing the criteria will also give you three Class 3 winners and three to have scored at Class 4...

...and it's definitely the top half of the card that catches the eye, aside from Mohareb. He's already a no from me, based on the above, as are Araifjan & Erosion Risk and if we did exclude Thunder Sun, we're left with eight of our original twelve. We've omitted runners from stalls 2, 3, 4 and 12, so if Sod's Law is anything to go by, the following draw stats will tell me to look for low drawn runners!

I've gone back as far as I needed to get at least 100 past similar contests and thankfully getting a low draw isn't the be all and end all, but high draws can be a struggle...

If we look at the PRB3 stats, then we're advised that the first seven stalls are the place to be...

...and then we need to look at our daily feature pace! Those 110+ races above have tended to go to those displaying good early pace...

Leaders win more than their fair share of contests here, but the data above suggests that prominent runners rein them in late on. Now if Instant Expert wants us to look at horses with lower saddle cloth numbers (1-7?) and those drawn 1 to 7, that's only Bill Plumb and Rogue de Vega. Hmmm, what if either of those have a pace score of around 3.00 or higher? Let's see...

Summary

It's Rogue de Vega for me here and 5/1 looks more than fair about an unexposed, in-form three year old receiving a weight allowance. He's drawn well and has a good pace profile and although only three races in, has yet to run a bad one.

Of the others at the top of the market, I do like Bill Plumb for similar reasons to the selection, but I don't like him quite as much and 4/1 is too short for an E/W bet. Sergeant Pep looks too long at 10's with bet365 and would be a decent E/W pick at that price, but I'm not really keen on anything else.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 28/03/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with a couple of 'possibles' to consider in the Black Country. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.45 Hexham
  • 4.15 Hexham
  • 6.00 Wolverhampton

...and although it's not a great race, it does make sense to consider the chances of a  horse, On The Right Track, in a 'free race' ie the 6.00 Wolverhampton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4f on standard tapeta...

None of these come here in any great form, although Belle of Annandale & Haven Lady were both runners-up on their last outings, whilst the latter along with Hashtagmetoo are the only pair to have won any of their last five and they seem to be the most consistent of this bunch.

All bar Iron Heart (down two classes) and This One's For Fred (down one) were in Class 6 action last time around and seven of the field have raced ion the last four weeks. The exceptions to this are Belle of Annandale & The Shortlist horse On The Right Track who now return from breaks of 173 and 239 days respectively and may well need the run.

Kentucky Kingdom, This One's For Fred and Tio Mio are former course winners (at 1m1½f, 1m6f & 1m1½f), whilst Haven Lady and Iron Heart have previous wins over a mile and a half. Belle of Annandale has won at neither track nor trip, but Hashtagmetoo, Starfighter and On The Right Track are all course and distance winners.

Instant Expert also tells us that all bar Belle of Annandale have won on standard A/W and that all bar Belle of Annandale and Iron Heart have won a Class 6 A/W contest...

On the immediate face of it, The Shortlist horse On The Right Track is the eyecatcher, but that optimism has to be tempered by the fact that he hasn't won a race for almost 18 months, although he's now weighted to go well. Obvious concerns surface about Haven Lady, Starfighter, This One's For Fred & Tio Mio on the going, This One's For Fred on Class and both Hashtagmetoo & Starfighter on the trip, but as there's a lack of green above, let's look at place form...

...where again On The Right Track looks best placed but with the same caveats as before. This One's For Fred looks the weakest here and I think we'd probably be best focusing on those with any green on Going, Class, Course and/or Distance, so that's not good for Belle of Annandale (again), Haven lady or Iron Heart.

Other than not getting hampered or cut-up on the bends, there shouldn't really be a massive draw bias in a 9-runner contest over a mile and a half, but let's check the actual stats...

...and they do seem to back up my theory, that aside from a slight disadvantage in the lower quarter of the draw, there shouldn't be too much in it and it's a similar story with pace. Hold-up horses have struggled to make up ground here, but thise racing any further forward all seem to have a decent enough chance of getting involved...

...which based on recent outings...

...wouldn't bode well for the likes of Kentucky Kingdom, Tio Mio or Iron heart and if we use a three-race sample size and arrange the field in draw order using those draw/pace stats abo, we can generate this heatmap...

Summary

It's Hashtagmetoo here for me. He's running consistently well, scores well on Instant Expert for places, is well drawn and has a good pace profile. He won over course and distance earlier this month and looks the most likely to me.

No prices out as of 3.10pm Monday, so I'll check back in later and update and also add an E/W option, if there's a viable price.

Update, Hashtagmetoo opened up at 15/2 with Skybet & Hills not long after 5pm, so he's the E/W pick for me.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 17/03/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have still produced a couple of qualifiers...

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.30 Cheltenham
  • 3.15 Doncaster
  • 5.20 Wolverhampton
  • 5.50 Down Royal
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

...so I suppose it makes sense to try and assess the chances of Johnny Boom in the 8.30 Wolverhampton, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta...

Arcadian Nights and Poetic Force bring the best form to the table as both won last time out and they are two from three and three from six respectively. Captain Attridge is a career 0 from 5, but the rest of the field have all won at least one of their last six outings.

The entire field either ran a this class or higher last time around, so, all should used to the standard, especially Poetic Force, Baby Steps & Harbour Vision who drop from Class 4 and Enough Already whose last race was a Class 3 affair.

Captain Attridge has been off the track since 1st October 2021 and is highly likely to need the run on his yard/UK/handicap debut. Of his rivals, Milltown Star's 55-day break is the longest and Harbour Vision, Poetic Force & Johnny Boom all raced less than a fortnight ago.

Enough Already and the maiden Captain Attridge are the two yet to win here at Wolverhampton and of the nine course winners, five (Arcadian Nights, Tiger Beetle, H4C horse Johnny Boom, Harbour Vision & Mafia Power) are course and distance winners.

All bar Captain Attridge have won on standard going A/W tracks with varying degrees of success and we've half a dozen previous Class 5 A/W winners, according to Instant Expert...

One's focus automatically falls on the green blocks and it's pretty safe to say that Arcadian Nights, Milltown Star, Poetic Force, Tiger Beetle and Johnny Boom have performed best under these conditions previously, whilst I have concerns over Enough Already (going), Baby Steps (going/distance), Johnny Boom (class), Harbour Vision (class/course), Mafia Power (going/class/distance), English Spirit (going) and Captain Attridge (layoff and generally!).

In fact, I'd not say those I have concerns about couldn't/wouldn't make the frame, but I can only see the winner coming from Arcadian Nights, Milltown Star, Poetic Force and Tiger Beetle, who will emerge from stalls 2, 5, 9 & 11, so a good spread across the track. I've omitted Johnny Boom from my list of possible winners, because he is 6 from 12 at Class 6 and 0 from 16 any higher, including 0 from 11 at Class 5. He has made the frame in three of six Class 5 A/W handicaps here though, so could be one for minor money.

My quartet of potential winners are spread across the track for a race that has, at first glance, benefited those drawn centrally...

...but the stall by stall analysis doesn't entirely back this up, so I wouldn't be too concerned about where my horse was drawn and I'd be more interested in race tactics. And we look against at those 1600+ runners above, the key here is not to dwell early and get left behind...

Sitting just behind the pacemaker(s) is the preferred option, but again like the draw, you'd not be too worried how your horse ran and from which stall, as long as they weren't held up and this is how this field have approached their most recent races...

Those pace scores are probably another nail in the coffin for Johnny Boom winning here and you'd want Poetic Force to run like he did LTO rather than the three previous races. The thing about PF is that he runs off the same mark as a win LTO, even though he drops in class and that should be enough to overcome any pace bias. The fact he's drawn in 11 might also suggest he'd have to tuck in anyway.

Summary

Arcadian Nights and Poetic Force bring the best form to the table and after looking at Instant Expert, I said that I can only see the winner coming from Arcadian Nights, Milltown Star, Poetic Force and Tiger Beetle and to be true to my word, I think this is a contest between Arcadian Nights and Poetic Force.

Both are in good form, both scored well on Instant Expert, neither are going to set the pace, although Arcadian Nights does have a better pace profile. Poetic Force, however, runs off an unchanged mark from his LTO win whilst dropping in class whilst Arcadian Nights is up 5lbs for a win at this level and some 9lbs higher than his C&D win here three starts ago and the weight/class might just be the difference.

So, it's marginally Poetic Force over Arcadian Nights (reverse forecast, perhaps?) for me with the other place going to any of a half dozen others, about whom I'll return to make a judgement once I've seen the market open.

Racing Insights, Monday 27/02/23

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We make one of the racecards tools free to all each day and on Mondays the freebie is PACE, an often over-looked facet of UK betting, but if you know how horses are likely to approach a race, you've a better chance of working whether they're going to be in with a shout of winning. We log the pace of every horse in every race and we show their last four outings under the pace tab on our racecards. We think pace is so important that we open the pace tab up to all readers for all races not once, but twice a week.

That's right, the pace tab is freely available on Sundays and Mondays, including our daily 'races of the day', which for Monday are...

  • 3.50 Ayr
  • 4.25 Ayr
  • 5.30 Wolverhampton

And I'm going to look at the last of those three, because the pace-map looks like this...

...and I'm going to try and see if attempting to make all is the right approach to winning the 5.30 Wolverhampton, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap (amateur jockeys) over a left=handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta...

Super Den is clearly the 'form' horse here, having won his last two and with three wins/two places from his last five. We've no other LTO winners here, but top weight The Menstone Gem and Dream Harder are both two from five, whilst May Night is the only other runner in the field with a 'recent' win.

We've lots of class movers here, as only four of these (The Menstone Gem, Society Red, Visibilty and Sir Plato) ran at Class 4 LTO. Four (Precision Storm, Dream Harder, May Night and They Don't Know) drop in from Class 3, but Super Den is up a class and bottom-weight Taqwaa is up two from Class 6.

Sir Plato is making a yard debut today, as he runs for the first time since mid-November, but aside from The Memstone Gem's near three month break and the 33 days since Society red's last outing, the other seven have all raced in the last seventeen days with Visibility out as recently as Friday here at Wolverhampton.

He was only 4th of 7 here on Friday, but Visibility is a former course and distance winner, as are Precision Storm, Dream Harder and Society Red. The only other course winner, May Night, scored here over both 7f and 1m½f, whilst elsewhere The Memstone Gem has won over 1,1f at Newmarket and over 1m2f at Newcastle.

Today's free feature is, of course, pace and I'll add some meat shortly to the bones of the pace map I posted at the start, but I wanted to add that Precision Storm, May Night and Super Den have all been denoted as fast finishers. We know how our course, distance and C&D winners, but Instant Expert also gives us the lowdown on going, class and weights v last win...

...where fast-finishing May Night would be a definite eye-catcher on a slightly slower surface, although he has also won on the rarely seen Standard to Fast here at Wolverhampton! Society Red's numbers are pretty consistent and Dream Harder would make even more appeal at Class 5, where he's 3 from 6. I'm concerned about Precision Storm's 1/13 at C4, he's also better a grade lower. Visibility likes it here and gets the trip, but would also suit being a class lower, whilst They Don't Know and Taqwaa are 0/15 and 0/10 respectively on the All-Weather!

Sir Plato is a whopping 12lbs higher than his sole A/W win from six attempts, way back in March 2017 and is still 8lbs higher than his most recent turf win seven starts ago and Society red is now 6lbs lower than his C&D win her a year ago, but has won off today's mark on turf since then. The others are 4-6lbs higher than their own last A/W wins.

And now back to the pace map that we started with, but with runner's names and individual pace scores from their last four outings...

...where it's top weight The Memstone Gem who'll probably attempt to make all from stall 3. To work out whether this is a good or bad tactic, let's consider which pace tactics have worked best here previously, which draw(s) are the best (if any) and how the pace and draw have worked together, starting with past race pace profiles...

...which suggest that those who lead do well, which is good news for The Memstone Gem on the face of it, but the truth is that there's not that much in it, as long as you're not on a hold-up type. The chances of winning or placing do diminish the further back you race, but the differences between leading and running in mid-division are negligible here, so let's see if there's a draw bias to be had from those 160+ races above...

Based on these numbers, the place to be drawn is anywhere from stalls 3 to 7, which would be good news (on paper, at least) for the likes of The Memstone Gem, Precision Storm, Sir Plato, Visibility and Taqwaa, so you'd now be expecting The Memstone Gem fondness of leading allied to his draw to give him a great chance here and the pace/draw heat map says that he is in a really good place to be...

...but a fair distance shy of the success achieved by high-drawn mid-divisional runners and by overlaying this field's draw and recent pace averages, we can see if anyone fits that bill...

...and this suggests a trio of May Night, Super Den and They Don't Know has having the best of it.

Summary

May Night, Super Den and They Don't Know come out best on pace/draw with The Memstone Gem handily placed too. The latter is the likely pace-setter here and his chances of success will rest upon how much daylight he can put between himself and the pack early doors, but he's currently 9/1 with Hills and wouldn't be a terrible E/W option, especially as his form on Tapeta reads 12213.

As for the high-drawn mid-dvisional trio, They Don't Know is least likely to be involved because although he has a 40% place strike rate on the A/W, he's still winless in 15 in this sphere and hasn't made the frame in three tapeta outings. May Night also looks a reasonable E/W bet at 8/1 a fortnight after finishing less than a length and a half further back than Precision Storm over this course and distance at a higher grade. Precision Storm is the 3/1 favourite here, but May Night runs off the same mark as LTO whilst the fav is up 2lbs and there's a good chance of the placings being reversed.

Which leaves us with Super Den, who has been in cracking form on the A/W this winter finishing 13211 and although he's up in trip, class and weight, he certainly looked like having plenty ion hand when scoring by two and a quarter lengths last time out, suggesting a 5lb rise might not yet be enough to anchor him. He's by no means a cert here, but a 4/1 pricetag looks fair if nothing else.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 07/02/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the 2.45 Market Rasen contest is of obvious interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover this trio from the Black Country...

  • 6.00 Wolverhampton
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

And although the clash of two Shortlist runners at Market Rasen appeals to me, they're both likely to be fairly popular in the market and the middle of our three 'free' A/W races looks an interesting affair where I'd guess the top six or seven in the market will be covered by about 4 or 5 points. That race is, of course, the 7.00 Wolverhampton, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed 7f on standard tapeta...

And as well as expecting a close market, the 2nd to 8th runners in the weights will only have a 3lb spread with two of them coming here off the back of a win last time out : Keyser Soze and Jilly Cooper. Of the rest, only Amber Island, Larado, Master Zoffany and Revolutionise have a win in their visible form line, although Tylos has been a runner-up in each of his last two.

Tylos actually drops down from Class 2 to run here, as do top-weight Moai and Farhh To Shy with Larado dropping in from a Listed race last weekend. As with four class droppers, we also have four stepping up, all from Class 4 and they are LTO winners Keyser Soze and Jilly Cooper along with Revolutionise and Counsel.

Moai runs in a handicap for just the second time (15 lengths, last of 10, a fortnight ago!), whilst Tylos now wears cheekpieces for the first time to hopefully get a bit more of him in a bid to land a second course and distance success. Amber Island, Master Zoffany, Jilly Cooper and Revolutionise have also all won over this 7f  trip here in the past and all bar top-weight Moai and bottom weight Perseverants have scored over this distance somewhere, but the C&D winners are the only previous course winners.

Amber Island returns from the longest break, but shouldn't have got too rusty in a 6-week rest, whilst Larado is pitched back in three days after a Listed race and 8 of the 11 have raced in the last 20 days. We know that most of these have won at today's trip, but not many have scored at Class 3 on the A/W, according to Instant Expert...

...but a few of them have good place numbers at this level...

...somewhat (if not totally) allaying my fears about both Amber Island & Keyser Soze only having 1 from 7 records at Class 3. Elsewhere Amber Island was third over C&D LTO and remains 6lbs higher than her last win, four starts ago, whilst Revolutionise (who looks solidly if unspectacularly consistent on IE) is 5lbs higher than his last win. The ones obviously catching the eye from above are Tylos, Master Zoffany and Jilly Cooper, three of our course and distance winners.

If we look at past 11-runner contests over 7f here at Wolverhampton, our Draw Analyser says...

...stalls 1 to 7 are the best place to run from, whilst the Pace stats from those same races suggest...

...that leader/prominent runners are twice as likely to win those further back in the pack and this is further highlighted by the pace/draw heat map...

Although stalls 1 to 7 were favoured on the draw stats, the heat map above does tend to imply that pace is more important than draw, so let's now look at who might (based on recent evidence) be the ones racing in the upper half of the field...

And whilst not all runners run the same way every time they turn out, I'm fairly confident that Larado will be trying to blast out of stall 6 in a bid to make all, whilst Keyser Soze is generally a slow/poor starter. And for more recent runs, here's how the field's last two races have panned out...

...which does suggest that Jilly Cooper is the one most likely to chase Larado.

Summary

Three of the course and distance winners caught the eye on Instant Expert : Tylos, Master Zoffany and Jilly Cooper. Jilly Cooper comes here in the best form of any of this field, having finished 1252731 over the last four months. That run includes three course and distance efforts with results of 131 and she's just 3lbs higher than the last two of those. All of which makes Jilly Cooper very much the one to beat here for me.

Both Tylos and Master Zoffany hold good chances of making the frame, as indeed do Farhh To Shy and Amber Island, but it would be Jilly Cooper that interests me most here. Only hills are open for this race at the moment and they go 9/2 about the filly, which is actually a good point longer than I expected. E/W punters might want to wait until SkyBet, Paddy Power and/or Unibet open up, as they're all paying on the first four home.

Racing Insights, Monday 06/02/23

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Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 2.30 Fontwell
  • 3.00 Fontwell
  • 5.30 Wolverhampton

...but none of them really appeal to me, so I decided to have a quick look at the pace graphic for every race on Monday and the one with the biggest spread was this...

...from the 7.30 Wolverhampton, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta. Here's the card...

Top-weight Mint Edition is the form horse here and comes seeking a hat-trick, whilst Gilded Moon is the only other with a recent win and none of Mint Edition's rivals even made the frame LTO.

Those two recent winners above are the only two not moving in class, as four (Sprezzatura, Grand Central, Fox Flame and bottom-weight Ski Jump) all drop from Class 5, whilst Quizlet raced at Class 4 LTO.

Ski Jump makes just a second handicap run and wears first-time cheekpieces whilst both Quizlet and Fox Flame make handicap debuts in a field rated 16lbs different from top to bottom. As for the field's last run, two (Mint Edition & Grand Central) have been quickly sent back out after 3 & 6 days rest respectively, three (Sprezzatura, Gilded Moon & Ski Jump) return from a short break of a fortnight or slightly longer, but both handicap debutants have been off for three months or more and might need a run.

None of these have won at either track nor trip. Mind you, only two of these have won a race before, so we'll probably need to concentrate on the second (places) of these two Instant Expert graphics...

...where it seems that those yet to win, don't even make the frame either!

So let's go back to that pace graphic we started with also add in the recent pace scores...

...and then compare that with past similar races here at Wolverhampton...

...where those racing furthest forward have the best record for win and place. Prominent runners make the frame as often as leaders but are only 73.5% as likely to win and the two I'd take from the pace chart would be Gilded Moon & Grand Central based on their last two outings, yet this pair are drawn apart in stalls 5 & 1 respectively, so who might have the best draw, if there is any advantage to be gained?

Our draw stats from those 120-odd races above say that a mid to high draw works best...

...with stalls 3 to 5 possibly the best place to be...

...which might be good news for Mint Edition, Ski Jump & Gilded Moon, whilst the pace draw heatmap...

...might look a little like this when we superimpose our field's draw and recent pace scores...

...where despite the difference in the draw, our two pace 'standouts' Grand Central & Gilded Moon look best placed on the combo.

Summary

Not a great race if truth be told, but I picked it purely to highlight the differing pace approaches taken in a race. I quickly assessed the field for form, race suitability, pace and draw and these were the ones that interested me most...

Form : Mint Edition & Gilded Moon
Instant Expert : Mint Edition & Gilded Moon
Pace : Gilded Moon & Grand Central
Draw : Mint Edition, Ski Jump & Gilded Moon
Pace/Draw : Grand Central & Gilded Moon

It's a fairly simplistic approach I've taken, of course, but of 11 names above Mint Edition is three of them and Gilded Moon is five, so they're the two I'm interested in now.

For me, Mint Edition should be winning this all day long and actually beat Gilded Moon by 6½ lengths on the latter's last outing 17 days ago. Gilded Moon is now 8lbs better, giving the filly a better chance of getting close, but a runner-up spot is surely the best she can hope for.

At the time I wrote this, only Hills had opened a book and they were putting Mint Edition up as an even money favourite and whilst I'm not into backing shorties, those of you who do might want to consider this one, as there could well still be some value in that price.

The beauty of a short-priced fav is that you can often get a decent E/W bet from it and the 10/1 about Gilded Moon might either be a little generous or a wasted stake. I think she's better than 10/1, whether she succeeds or not.

Wolverhampton Racecourse Run Style Bias

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In this final instalment in a series of articles looking at run style bias at individual all weather tracks, we journey to Wolverhampton racecourse in the Midlands. Previous chapters can be found from the links below.

 

To view other all-weather track run style biases, choose from the below:

Chelmsford Racecourse Run Style Bias
Kempton Park Racecourse (AW) Run Style Bias
Lingfield Racecourse (AW) Run Style Bias
Newcastle Racecourse (AW) Run Style Bias
Wolverhampton Racecourse Run Style Bias

 

What I mean by run style is the position a horse takes up early on in its race, usually within the first furlong or so. So far in this series the statistics have shown that early position can be really important especially over shorter distances. Run style is often replaced by the word pace – this is because the early pace shown by horses in a race determines what position they take up early in the race. Some people argue that the word pace is the wrong word to use because it is slightly ambiguous. Hence for this article I will generally stick to run style.

Geegeez.co.uk has something called the Query Tool which can also be used to investigate run style along with other factors such as the draw, trainers, jockeys, class, going, etc. My research for this piece has primarily come from using this excellent resource. The run style data (known as pace in the Query Tool) is split into four sections (led, prominent, mid-division, held up). Each one is also assigned a numerical value. The values go from 4 to 1, as follows: led gets 4 points, prominent 3, mid-division 2 and held up 1.

As with the previous articles in this series I will be looking at individual distances - primarily the shorter ones - with the focus being 8+ runner handicaps. The data has been taken from 2016 up until 30th September 2021.

Wolverhampton 5 furlong Run Style Bias

We begin with a look at the shortest trip, five furlongs, where races feature a shortish run to the single bend. The figures for Wolves (max field size is 11) are thus:

Wolverhampton Racecourse: five furlong run style bias

 

Horses that have led early (front runners) have the advantage here, a point which correlates with all other all-weather courses we have looked at. All have shown a good to strong front-running bias over 5f.

This advantage to early speed can also be seen when we drill down into the non-handicap data as shown in the table below:

Wolverhampton Racecourse: five furlong non-handicap run style bias

 

In fact the bias is far stronger, which is likely down to the fact non-handicaps are usually less competitive than handicaps; as a result, the better horses are likely to have the natural speed to be front-runners, and are likely to have fewer challengers over the course of a race.

Returning to 5f handicaps, let us look at the draw data for all runners. I have split the draw into three parts to compare the percentage of winners from each third of the draw:

Wolverhampton Racecourse: five furlong draw bias

 

There is a small edge to low drawn runners as can be seen, but ultimately the draw seems relatively fair: high drawn runners still win more than one in every four races. Front runners are able to win from any draw berth, both in handicaps and in non-handicaps, so there is no real edge to be found by combining run style with draw.

Onto to 5f favourites at Wolverhampton and their performance across all running styles. For the vast majority of course and distance combinations we have looked at in this series, front running favourites have outperformed other run style favourite counterparts:

Wolverhampton Racecourse: five furlong favourite run style bias

 

Once again front-running favourites do best, but the gap to the next two early position groups is smaller than we have previously seen. Having said that, favourites that were held up have a dreadful record once again. Indeed, backing these held up favourites over five furlongs would have yielded a loss of over 51p in the £. For the record, backing front-running favourites would have produced a decent profit of 22p in the £.

This market / run style bias is replicated when we focus on horses from the top three of the betting over this 5f trip. This time a graphical representation, where we can see a beautiful linearity:

Wolverhampton Racecourse: five furlong top 3 in betting run style bias

 

The number of runners does not seem to make any difference to front running performance over the minimum at Wolves. However, hold up horses have performed better in smaller fields – in 8 runner races their A/E value is 0.78, in 11 runner races this drops to 0.54. The sample sizes are solid so I imagine this finding is a sound one.

Over 5f, therefore, in both handicaps and non handicaps, predicting the front runner in as many races as possible is likely to provide a potential avenue to profits.

 

Wolverhampton 6 furlong Run Style Bias

Moving on to 6f handicaps now, where the maximum field size rises to 13. The stalls are positioned in a chute at the far end of the back straight, allowing the field a good amount of time to settle and find a position. Here are the data - there is a good chunk of races to analyse:

Wolverhampton Racecourse: six furlong handicap run style bias

 

This represents a change of picture compared with 5f contests. Front runners and those racing prominently have very similar figures and it is clear that, as a group, they hold an edge over horses that race mid division or are held up. Having said that this run style bias is relatively modest when compared with other tracks we've looked at. That view is further illustrated when looking at the favourite / run style data, which are far more even than we've typically seen:

Wolverhampton Racecourse: six furlong favourite run style bias

 

Favourites that are held up still struggle but not nearly as much as over five furlongs here, and at many other courses and distances; the other three run styles have virtually identical records.

A quick look at the draw next and as can be seen it is a very even playing field:

Wolverhampton Racecourse: six furlong draw bias

 

Before moving on to 7f handicaps, let us take a quick look at non-handicap run style data – here we do have a clear run style bias.

Wolverhampton Racecourse: six furlong non-handicap run style bias

 

There is a significant bias towards front runners, which is replicated when comparing their A/E values:

Wolverhampton Racecourse: six furlong non-handicap run style bias (A/E values)

 

In summary, over 6f at Wolverhampton, handicaps offer a small run style edge; that edge is much stronger and looks more ‘playable’ in non-handicaps.

 

Wolverhampton 7 furlong Run Style Bias

We move on to look at 7f handicaps next. The maximum field size drops to 12 here, and races start in a chute on a tangent joining the bend before the back straight:

Wolverhampton Racecourse: seven furlong handicap run style bias

 

These figures are very similar to the 6f ones. The strongest run style bias here is the one against hold up horses. Front runners have a slight edge over prominent racers who in turn have a slight edge over mid pack runners.

The performance of favourites over seven furlongs at Wolverhampton across different running styles is shown in the next table.

Wolverhampton Racecourse: seven furlong handicap favourite run style bias

 

This looks more ‘normal’ again with front running favourites performing best. Mid-division favourites have surprisingly outperformed their prominent counterparts. Held up favourites again have a dismal record, winning on average just one race in every six and racking  up losses of 43p in the £ if you backed all of them.

The draw stats are virtually even for each third of the draw so there is no edge there.

Interesting, the 7f trip, as with the 6f one, has much stronger run style stats in non-handicaps as the SR% table shows:

Wolverhampton Racecourse: seven furlong non-handicap run style bias, strike rate

 

As you might hope, A/E values largely correlate too:

Wolverhampton Racecourse: seven furlong non-handicap run style bias, A/E (Actual vs Expected)

 

The 7f and 6f run style stats across handicap and non-handicaps are very similar, in spite of the differing stall starting positions. Once again over seven furlongs, non-handicaps will probably offer better opportunities from a run style bias perspective than handicaps.

 

Wolverhampton Racecourse Run Style Bias Conclusions

Wolverhampton has probably the weakest overall bias of the five all-weather tracks we've considered from a run style perspective. However, there is a decent front-runner bias over 5f in handicaps, while in non-handicaps the same early pace bias looks significant at races up to and including 7f.

It is important to appreciate the value of avoiding bad bets as well as finding good ones. In that context, Wolverhampton should offer a few solid run style betting opportunities, but knowing how poorly fancied runners fare when held  up should put us off some bad ones, too.

- DR

p.s. if you've enjoyed this article, you can view my other contributions to geegeez.co.uk here.

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2020

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Saturday's pick was...

4.35 Musselburgh : Amazing Alba @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 3/1 (Towards rear, headway 2f out, not clear run over 1f out, soon no impression)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which shows a 6yr old former course and distance winner dropping in class today, set to be ridden by a 5lb claimer. He's also in the top three of our own ratings and his trainer is one of my group to look out for here at Wolverhampton.

Closer analysis of those facts show that this runner has won five times at this track and is now 3lbs better off than his last win here back in January, whilst all five course wins have come under the following broad criteria that are in place today...2018-20 / handicaps / 7f-8.5f / OR of 54-74 and sent off in the 3/1 to 14/1 range. When those have combined, he is...

Jockey Ray Dawson might be a 5lb claimer, but with over 540 rides under his belt, he's no stranger to the saddle and has been in good nick of late winning 9 of 54 (16.7% SR) over the past month returning Betfair SP profits of 41.15pts at an ROI of some 76.2% and since 2018 in Wolverhampton handicaps over 6f to 1m4f at odds of 14/1 and shorter, he is...

And finally to trainer David Loughnane's record here at Wolverhampton. He's actually one of a dozen trainers I keep an eye out for at this venue and in David's case, the runners that interest me the most are those handicappers sent off at odds of 3/1 and bigger over trips of 7f to 1m4f, because since the start of 2018, they are...

...with a near 1 in 6 strike rate generating profits beyond 76p in the pound, including of note today...

  • 18/95 (19%) for 86.3pts (+90.8%) at odds of 5/1 to 16/1
  • 16/102 (15.7%) for 104.2pts (+102.2%) were unplaced LTO
  • 14/78 (18%) for 70.7pts (+90.6%) during August to December
  • 7/39 (18%) for 30.7pts (+78.6%) over this course and distance
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 78.3pts (+279.7%) with a jockey claiming 5/7 lbs

...whilst horses unplaced LTO sent off at 5/1 to 16/1 during August to December are 11/38 (29% SR) for 81.9pts (+215.6% ROI) with 5lb claimers riding 3 winners from 8 (37.5%) for 25.1pts (+314.3%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday (up to 9/1 in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th March 2020

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Saturday's pick was...

4.15 Ayr : Emma Beag @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Held up mid-division, tracked leaders after 6th, challenged 3 out, soon ridden, kept on and every chance last, but no extra on flat) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.40 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Nezar @ 7/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Apprentice Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on tapeta worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

On a day where racing seems to have gone for quantity rather than quality, I'm fairly disinterested, but I do think this one is too big a price not to consider, even if he drifts further in the market!

He was only headed very late on and subsequently beaten by a short head at 10/1 last time out, when racing over today's 7f trip at Kempton 34 days ago, but comes here with the benefit of some rest and a drop in class. His overall record isn't brilliant, but isn't bad for a 9 yr old approaching the 70-race mark, having won 7 of 65 so far.

The resultant 10.77% strike rate is respectable, but does improve under conditions faced today ie...

  • 33.33% (6/18) at Class 5
  • 30.77% (4/13) here at Wolverhampton
  • 25% (2/8) over course and distance
  • 20.69% (6/29) in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 16.28% (7/43) without headgear (0/22 with!)
  • and 11.54% (6/52) after a break of less than 5 weeks...

...whilst without headgear in 5-10 runner, Class 5 contests less than five weeks since he last ran, he is 4 from 9 (44.4% SR) for 16.2pts (+180% ROI) including 3 from 4 here at Wolverhampton and 2 from 3 over course and distance.

Also, since the start of 2016, his trainer, Dean Ivory's handicappers sent off at odds ranging from 7/4 to 12/1 when dropping down a class are 26 from 139 (18.7% SR) for 35.8pts (+25.8% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • 23/103 (22.3%) for 54.5pts (+52.9%) from males
  • 22/101 (21.8%) for 51.8pts (+51.2%) over trips of 6f to 1m
  • 19/77 (24.7%) for 51.3pts (+66.6%) at 16-60 days since last run
  • 18/92 (19.6%) for 40.7pts (+44.2%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 15/65 (23.1%) for 30.8pts (+47.4%) in fields of 9-11 runners
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 17.7pts (+110.4%) here at Wolverhampton
  • and 4/14 (28.6%) for 2.63pts (+18.8%) in March

The bulk of the winners appear to fall in the first four categories listed and SotD wouldn't be SotD if I didn't attempt to put a composite angle together for you, would it?

So, here goes...males at 6f to 1m for £0-4k at 16-60 dslr = 13/29 (44.8% SR) for 66.3pts (+228.5% ROI), from which 8/16 (50%) in fields of 9-11 runners, 3/7 (42.9%) at Wolverhampton and 2/4 (50%) in fields of 9-11 at Wolves...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Nezar @ 7/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, Hills & Ladbrokes at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.40 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!