Tix Picks, Friday 18/10/24

October 18, 2024
Chris Worrall

Friday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Fakenham, Haydock, Newcastle, Redcar & Uttoxeter.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The big money is (quite rightly) up here in the North West where the going is set to be heavy at Haydock for a short six-race meeting that kicks off with...

Leg 1 @ 1.45, a 6-runner, Class 4, 2yo Novice Stakes over 1m...

Yabher's win on debut 34 days ago and Minella Boss' runner-up finish four days earlier are the only two real pieces of form here.

Yabher won more comfortably than the winning margin would suggest, his yard have a good record here at Haydock, a good record with LTO winners and also runners making their second appearance...

Minella Boss' runner-up finish might actually flatter him, it was a poor-looking Galway maiden and he was beaten by some 12 lengths, which is almost as far from winning as Cangofar's 14 length defeat on debut. Condotti went down by 20 lengths on debut, but was 'only' beaten by 8 engths second/last time out, so there was some improvement there, I suppose. Drumcondra was almost 30 lengths adrift a fortnight ago and King Al has yet to run.

The manner of the defeats sufered by all bar Yabher means that King Al might not have to be that good to make the frame here. He's by Al Kazeem, he's a half-brother to Kings Merchant who has won over 5f/6f this year, his dam won over 6f and he cost 50,000 as a 2yo, so someone must fancy him.

It's a bit of a back to front approach, but (5) King All seems to have the least negatives of the rivals to (1) Yabher, so I'll take these two.

Leg 2 @ 2.20, a 7-runner, Class 5, 2yo Nursery over 7f...

Karl Carlston won last time out, just holding on to score by a nose at Chelmsford a fortnight ago. Lovely Spirit and Cashlyn Cavalier both finished as runners-up, but the former won her penultimate race (7f) and has made the frame in all five career starts including a soft-ground third on debut in May. She also drops in class here.

Timefall and Ran Amok both won three starts back and the latter is possibly better than her 8th place finish LTO might suggest. She was actually 8th of 20 on a £193,000 Class 2 race at the St Leger meeting, beaten by less than six lengths after having won a Class 2 maiden at Newmarket and having made the frame on handicap debut at the same venue (Class 3), so this represents somewhat of a drop in class for her here and her yard/jockey are on fire right now...

We've only a small set of data, of course, but Lovely Spirit leads the way on Instant Expert and with a low/mid draw favoured here and front-runners generally doing well, the head of the pace averages chart...

...makes it impossible for me not to pick (4) Lovely Spirit from stall 1. I expect (3) Karl Carlston to do his utmost best to try and chase here home, but the main danger might well be top weight (2) Timefall, who probably looks the best of the whole field on paper. I'll take all three here, just in case!

Leg 3 @ 2.55, a 9-runner, Class 5, 2yo Nursery over 6f...

Nebrook Dream won last time out on handicap debut, finishing a length ad a half clear of the pack on heavy ground. The runner-up has since finished second again, but at Class 4 off a mark just one pound lower than Nebrook Dream is today. Herecomesthebear was third beaten by just over three quarters of a length at Redcar but won three starts ago on heavy ground at Ffos Las. Fortaleza has improved position in each of three races since finishing fifth on debut (5432) and was a neck ahead of Herecomesthebear (who is now 2lbs better off) last time out and Sir Palamedes won two starts ago, also on heavy ground at Ffos Las.

As you'd expect off such an inexperienced field, those results I mentioned above translate into green boxes on Instant Expert...

Two of those mentioned above feature in the top three of the pace chart...

, but when push comes to shove, I want to be on those who have won on heavy ground ie (3) Sir Palamedes, (5) Nebrook Dream and (9) Herecomesthebear. I do worry about the improving Fortaleza upsetting the applecart, but she did only beat Herecomesthebear by a neck last time out and she's 2lbs worse off here, so on paper the palcings should be reversed, all things being equal of course.

Leg 4 @ 3.30, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ Handicap over 5f...

Moonstone Boy was only 9th of 17 at York last time but had two wins and three places from his previous three outings, Never Dark won his penultimate race, Trilby has been the runner-up in each of his last two and has five top-three finishes from his last six runs. Our Absent Friends has two wins and a place from his last four starts and Count Dorsay won two races ago, so quite a few are in decent if not winning form.

Trilby and Moonstone Boy have both won on heavy ground already and the former is two from four here at Haydock. Low drawn late finishers and high drawn front runners seem to be the way forward here, which ticks boxes for Trilby and Secret Mistral...

...and puts both Moonstone Boy and Our Absent Friends into the mix. And with Moonstone Boy, Never Dark, Trilby and Secret Mistral all dropping in class today, I have to put (4) Trilby on my ticket builder as he has ticked every box so far. I'll also take bottom weight (8) Secret Mistral on pace/draw plus a drop in class and in a toss-up between Moonstone Boy and Our Absent Friends on countback, I think that (2) Moonstone Boy just about shades it down in class, in decent form, a former heavy ground winner and scores well on pace/draw.

Leg 5 @ 4.05, an 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ Handicap over 6f...

Drama won at Kempton last time out where he has produced his best form. and is 1251 from his last four, Hour by Hour was only sixth LTO beaten by four lengths, but was seeking a hat-trick that day, whilst Mercurial was only narrowly beaten by a neck at Roscommon four days ago. Heavy ground brings Hyperfocus to the fore with his two wins and he has won four of ten starts here at Haydock over the years, making the frame in two of the six defeats as well.

More recent place form puts Woven, Mercurial and Hour By Hour firmly in the picture...

The pace here is likely to be set by (3) Hyperfocus, (6) Mercurial and (8) Hour By Hour...

...and all three have been mentioned positively above, so I'll side with this trio.

Leg 6 @ 4.40, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m...

Firebrand and On The River both won last time out in the last seven days and the latter is unpenalised for comfortably landing an 18-runner apprentice handicap on soft ground at York and he's the only runner in the field with two wins from their last six outings. Elsewhere there's not much recent form of note; Autumn Festival was a runner-up in a poor seller and Pearl Eye was beaten by just a head on his last handicap run at Chester a month ago.

Pearl Eye is of further interest here, because he has three wins and a place from six efforts over course and distance, including a win on his only career run on heavy ground. Chuck in two wins and a runner-up finish from six soft ground runs and you've got one not fearful of underfoot conditions. He hasn't the best recent win record at Class 3, but it's no better/worse than the rest of this field, which looks more like a Class 4 contest anyway, but his other two-year win stats are impressive enough...

The pace is likely to be set by Firebrand here...

...and that early dart allied to his good form might well be enough to carry him through for a place.

(8) On The River is clearly the one to beat based on that win at York last time out, but (6) Firebrand is in good nick and might try to make all here, so both go on my Tix builder along with course/distance specialist (4) Pearl Eye.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Yabher & (5) King Al

Leg 2: (2) Timefall, (3) Karl Carlston & (4) Lovely Spirit

Leg 3: (3) Sir Palamedes, (5) Nebrook Dream & (9) Herecomesthebear

Leg 4: (2) Moonstone Boy, (4) Trilby, & (8) Secret Mistral

Leg 5: (3) Hyperfocus, (6) Mercurial & (8) Hour By Hour

Leg 6: (4) Pearl Eye, (6) Firebrand & (8) On The River

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...