It’s Guineas Weekend at Newmarket this Saturday, while the ITV cameras are heading to Goodwood & Thirsk. As always, we’ve all the LIVE ITV races covered from a trends and stats angle to put history on your side.
Can top Irish trainer Aidan O'Brien land his 11th 2000 Guineas?
Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1.10 – Oddschecker British EBF Ellen Chaloner Stakes (Listed Race) (Formerly The Kilvington Stakes) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f RTV
11/11 – Aged between 3-5
11/11 – Won over 5f or 6f before
10/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
8/11 – Won between 1-2 times before
8/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/11 – Didn’t win last time out
8/11 – Placed favourites
7/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
6/11 – Aged 3 years-old
6/11 – Came from stalls 11 (3) or 7 (3)
4/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Trained by William Haggas (3 of the last 6)
3 of the last 8 winners came from stall 11
Unequal Love won the race in 2024
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1
Note: The race was formerly run at Nottingham from 2021 back
11/12 - Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/12 - Had won over 6f before
10/12 - Won 3+ times before
10/12 - Didn’t win last time out
9/12 - Ran in the last 4 weeks
9/12 - Returned 13/2 or bigger
8/12 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/12 - Unplaced favourites
7/12 - Ran at Newmarket before (Rowley)
7/12 - Carried 9-3 or more in weight
6/12 - Rated 100+
3/12 - Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/12 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 4)
0/12 - Winners from stalls 1 or 2
6 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/1
18/19 – Had won at least twice before
18/19 – Had won over at least a mile before
16/19 – Priced 12/1 or shorter
16/19 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
15/19 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/19 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
13/19 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
11/19 – Rated between 90 and 96
11/19 – Returned between 9/1 and 12/1 in the betting
11/19 – Aged 4 years-old
9/19 – Having their first run of the season
7/19 – Won last time out
6/19 – Irish bred
2/19 - Winning favourites
2/19 – Won by Charlie Appleby (2 of the last 6)
2/19 - Trained by Andrew Balding
William Buick has won 3 of the last 7
6 of the last 7 winners drawn between 2-7
Just 2 winners from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 16 runnings
2.55 – Hong Kong Jockey Club Palace House Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 5f ITV
20/22 – Won 3 or more times before
19/22 – Had won over 5f before
19/22 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
18/22 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
18/22 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
16/22 – Had run at Newmarket before
16/22– Aged 5 or younger
15/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/22 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/22 – Rated between 108 and 114
13/22 – Placed favourites
10/22 – Won last time out
7/22 – Winning favourites
5/22 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/22 – Trained by Bryan Smart
2/22 – Trained by Michael Dods
2/22 – Ridden by William Buick (2 of last 4 runnings)
Just 5 placed horses from stall 1 in the last 17 runnings
5 of the last 8 runnings went to 4 year-olds
8 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 2-7 (inc)
Vadream won the race in 2023 and second in 2024
22/23 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
21/23 – Had won over at least 7f before
20/23 – Had won a Group race before
21/23 – Had won between 2-5 times before
19/23 – Drawn in stall 12 or lower
18/23 – Won last time out
18/23 – Winning distance – less than 2 lengths
15/23 – Having their first run of the season
15/23 – Had won just 2 or 3 times in their career before
14/23 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/23 – Placed favourites
12/23 – Won by an Irish-based yard
12/23 – Irish bred
10/23 – Had won over a mile before
9/23 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (10 wins in total)
9/23 – Drawn in stalls 1 or 3
6/23 – Winning favourites
7/23 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley) before
5/23 – Won the Dewhurst Stakes the previous season
4/23 – Won the Vincent O’Brien National Stakes (Churchill, Gleneagles, Dawn Approach, George Washington and Refuse To Bend)
3/23 – Ran at the Curragh last time out
2/23 - Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 5)
10 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 22 years is 10/1
Aidan O’Brien has won the race in 1998, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018 & 2019
Goodwood Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
2.00 – William Hill Conqueror Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m ITV
12/12 – Didn’t win last time out
10/12 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/12 – Won 2 or more times before
8/12 – Yet to race at the track
8/12 – Unplaced last time out
8/12 – Horse from stall 1 placed in the top 3
7/12 – Winners from stalls 1 or 5
7/12 – Favourites placed in the top 3
7/12 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
7/12 – Horse from stall 5 placed in the top 3
7/12 – Aged 4 years-old
6/12 – Won over a mile before
6/12 – Horse from stall 7 placed in the top 3
4/12 – Winners from stall 1
3/12 – Ran a Newmarket last time out
2/12 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1
12/13 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
12/13 – Aged 6 or younger
12/13 – Won at least twice before
12/13 – Didn’t win last time out
11/13 – Won over at least 1m before
11/13 – Unplaced last time out
10/13 – Drawn in stalls 7 or higher
10/13 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
10/13 – Rated between 87-94 (inc)
9/13 – Won between 2-4 times
7/13 – Winners from a double-figure draw
7/13 – Had run at the track before (3 won)
2/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by Michael Dods (2 of the last 8)
8 of the last 11 winners returned 13/2 or bigger in the betting
Northern Express won the race in 2023
Note: The 2018 running was staged at Wetherby
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https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/stt.png320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2025-05-03 07:21:592025-05-03 07:59:52Sat TV Trends: 3rd May 2025
The now Betfred-sponsored 2,000 Guineas is a race run over 1m and is the first of the five English Classics to be run each season - with the 1,000 Guineas run the following day. Both races are staged at Newmarket racecourse, and for 3 year-olds only, the race is also seen as an early-season guide to that year’s Epsom Derby – the last horses to land both races in the same season were Sea The Stars (2009) and Camelot (2012).
The 2024 running of the 2000 Guineas was won by the Charlie Appleby-trained Notable Speech with William Buick riding.
Here at GEEGEEZ, we take a look back at past winners and highlights the key trends and stats ahead of the 2025 renewal – this year run on Saturday 3rd May 2025.
Key 2,000 Guineas Stat - 14 of the last 23 winners of the 2,000 Guineas came from the top 3 in the betting?
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Recent 2,000 Guineas Winners
2024 - Notable Speech (16/1)
2023 - Chaldean (7/2)
2022 - Coroebus (5/1)
2021 - Poetic Flare (16/1)
2020 – Kameko (10/1)
2019 – Magna Grecia (11/2)
2018 - Saxon Warrior (3/1)
2017 - Churchill (6/4 fav)
2016 – Galileo Gold (14/1)
2015 – Gleneagles (4/1 fav)
2014 – Night Of Thunder (40/1)
2013 – Dawn Approach (11/8 fav)
2012 – Camelot (15/8 fav)
2011 – Frankel (1/2 fav)
2010 – Makfi (33/1)
2009 – Sea The Stars (8/1)
2008 – Henrythenavigator (11/1)
2007 – Cockney Rebel (25/1)
2006 – George Washington (6/4 fav)
2005 – Footstepsinthesand (13/2)
2004 – Haafhd (11/2)
2003 – Refuse to Bend (9/2)
2002 – Rock of Gibraltar (9/1)
Note: The 2020 running was staged in June (Covid-19)
2,000 Guineas Trends & Stats
22/23 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
21/23 – Had won over at least 7f before
21/23 – Had won between 2-5 times before
20/23 – Had won a Group race before
19/23 – Drawn in stall 12 or lower
18/23 – Won last time out
18/23 – Winning distance – less than 2 lengths
15/23 – Having their first run of the season
15/23 – Had won just 2 or 3 times in their career before
14/23 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/23 – Placed favourites
12/23 – Won by an Irish-based yard
12/23 – Irish bred
10/23 – Had won over a mile before
9/23 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (10 wins in total)
9/23 – Drawn in stalls 1 or 3
7/23 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley) before
6/23 – Winning favourites
5/23 – Won the Dewhurst Stakes the previous season
5/23 – Won the Vincent O’Brien National Stakes
3/23 – Ran at the Curragh last time out
2/23 - Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 5)
10 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 23 years is 10/1
Other 2,000 Guineas Facts
- Aidan O’Brien has won the race in 1998, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018 & 2019
- Frankie Dettori rode the winner in 1996, 1999 & 2016
- Trainer John Gosden has never won the 2000 Guineas
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First run back in 1814, the Betfred 1,000 Guineas is a Group One flat race run over 1m just for 3 year-old fillies. The contest is one of the five English Classics and staged atNewmarket racecourse in late April or early May each year.
It’s the second of the five English Classics with the 2,000 Guineas run the day before being the first, while winners of this race often go onto run well in that year’s Epsom Oaks the following month – the last horses to land both races in the same season was Kazzia in 2002 and Minding in 2016.
The 2023 running of the 1000 Guineas was won by Godolphin's Mawj and trained by Saeed Bin Suroor. A win that provided the 'boys in blue' with their fourth win in the fillies' classic.
While last year the race was won by the Roger Varian-trained Elmalka - which gave the yard and jockey Silvestre de Sousa their first wins in the race.
Here at GEEGEEZ we look back at recent winners and gives you the key stats to take into the 2025 renewal – run on Sunday 4th May
1000 Guineas Key Stat - 21 of the last 23 winners of the 1,000 Guineas finished in the top three last time out?
Note: The 2020 running was staged in June (Covid-19)
1,000 Guineas Betting Trends
21/23 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
17/23 – Had won a Group race before
16/23 – Had won between 2-3 times before
15/23 – Drawn between 2-13 (inc)
15/23 – Yet to win a race over a mile (or further)
15/23 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
15/23 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
13/23 – Won their previous race
13/23 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
12/23 – Returned a double-figure price
11/23 – Favourites unplaced
10/23 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
10/23 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
9/23 – Irish-trained winners
9/23 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
6/23 – Drawn in stalls 7 or 8
6/23 – Previous Group One winners
4/23 – Won by a US bred horse
4/23 – Won by the favourite
4/23– Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/23 – French-trained winners
Just one horse placed from stall 1 in the last 17 runnings
11 of the last 17 winners came between stalls 2-8 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 23 years is 13/1
1,000 Guineas Facts
Owner Shadwell have won the race 5 times (1990, 1991, 1995, 2000 & 2009)
Frankie Dettori has ridden the ridden the winner 4 times (1998, 2002, 2011 & 2021)
Ryan Moore has ridden the winner 4 times (2012, 2015, 2016, 2020)
Godolphin have won the race 4 times (1998, 2002, 2011 & 2023)
Aidan O’Brien has trained 7 winners, Virginia Waters (2005), Homecoming Queen (2012), Minding (2016), Winter (2017), Hermosa (2019), Love (2020), Mother Earth (2021)
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A busy weekend for the ITV cameras gets going on Friday with action from Newmarket.
There are four races from Newmarket - flat racing's HQ - to take in on ITV, with the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes one of the highlights at 4:05pm.
A race that last year's Epsom Derby runner-up Ambiente Friendly is set to run in.
To help you try and find the winners, we've got the key trends and stats for each LIVE ITV race.
Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV)
1:45 - King Charles II Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 7f RTV
9/11 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Winning favourites
7/11 – Drawn in stalls 1 or 2
3/11 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/11 – Ridden by Sean Levey
8 of the last 9 winners from stalls 4 or lower
Trainer Charlie Appleby has a 26% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey William Buick has a 28% strike-rate riding 3 year-olds at the track
11/11 – Stalls 5 or lower
8/11 – Winners from stalls 1 or 2
6/11 – Returned 5/2 or shorter
5/11 – Winners from stall 1
4/11 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (including 2 of the last 3)
4/11 – Ridden by William Buick (including 2 of the last 3)
4/11 – Godolphin owned
3/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Ridden by David Egan
Trainer Charlie Appleby has a 23% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Ralph Beckett is just 4-55 with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey William Buick has a 25% strike-rate riding 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Rossa Ryan is just 1-53 riding 3 year-olds at the track
10/10 – Stalls 7 or lower
10/10 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
9/10 – Won just once before
8/10 – Carried 9-3 or less in weight
7/10 – Returned 5/1 or less
7/10 – Rated between 81-89
7/10 – Stalls 5 or lower
7/10 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
6/10 – Irish bred
5/10 – Won last time out
4/10 – Winning favorites
4/10 – Ridden by William Buick
3/10 – Trained by Charles Hills
3/10 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
1/10 – Winners from stall 1
Only 3 previous runnings
Trainers Charlie Appleby, Charlie Johnston and Andrew Balding have won this race before
2 of the last 3 winners from stall 2
1 winning favourite
All 3 winners returned 5/1 or less
All three winners aged 6 or younger (2 aged 6)
Ralph Beckett is just 1-24 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Richard Hannon is just 2-35 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Mick Appleby is just 1-22 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey William Buick has a 26% SR riding 4+ year-olds at the track
19/21 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
17/21 – Won over 1m4f+ before
16/21 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or more
15/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/21 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
14/21 – Had won between 3-5 times in their career
12/21 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
11/21 – Aged 4 years-old
11/21 – Rated 112 or higher
10/21 – Winning favourites
10/21 – Had won a Group race before
9/21 – Won last time out
8/21 – Aged 5 years-old
8/21 – Having their first run of the season
7/21 – Ran at Newbury last time out
5/21 – Won by the Johnston yard (Mark/Charlie) (3 of the last 5)
3/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
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Staged at the five-day Punchestown Festival in April/May 2024 the Punchestown Gold Cup is a Grade One contest run over 3m1f.
The race version we see today was first run back in 1999 and since then has been won by some leading names, including Cheltenham Gold Cup winners Imperial Call, Kicking King, War Of Attrition & Don Cossack - while the 2012 Grand National winner, Neptune Collonges, took this twice before he landed the Aintree marathon.
Last year's winner was the Martin Brassil-trained Fastorslow, who lowered the colours of that year's Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Galopin Des Champs - for a second time in the race.
Did you know – 15 of the last 21 Punchestown Gold Cup winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old, while 16 of the last 21 winners were Irish-trained?
Here at GeeGeez, we take a look back at recent Punchestown Gold Cup winners, plus highlight the key stats ahead of the 2025 renewal – this year run on Wednesday 30th April 2025.
Recent Punchestown Gold Cup Winners
2024 - FASTORSLOW (7/2)
2023 – FASTORSLOW (20/1)
2022 – ALLAHO (6/5 fav)
2021 – CLAN DES OBEAUX (10/3)
2020 – No race (Covid)
2019 – KEMBOY (13/8 fav)
2018 – BELLSHILL (4/1)
2017 – SIZING JOHN (9/10)
2016 – CARLINGFORD LOUGH (12/1)
2015 – DON COSSACK (5/2)
2014 – BOSTON BOB (5/2 fav)
2013 – SIR DES CHAMPS (2/1 fav)
2012 – CHINA ROCK (20/1)
2011 – FOLLOW THE PLAN (20/1)
2010 – PLANET OF SOUND (14/1)
2009 – NOTRE PERE (15/8 fav)
2008 – NEPTUNE COLLONGES (9/10 fav)
2007 – NEPTUNE COLLONGES (8/1)
2006 – WAR OF ATTRITION (4/5 fav)
2005 – KICKING KING (8/11 fav)
2004 – BEEF OF SALMON (5/4 fav)
2003 – FIRST GOLD (7/4 fav)
Punchestown Gold Cup Betting Trends
18/21 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
16/21 – Aged 8 or younger
16/21 – Irish-trained winners
15/21 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
11/21– Had run in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
10/21 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
10/21 – Winning favourites
9/21 – Won last time out
9/21 – Ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time out
5/21 - Trained by Willie Mullins (5 of the last 11)
3/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 6/1
9 of the last 19 favourites have won
Only 4 of the last 20 winners aged 9+
Paul Townend has only 1 winner in the race (Allaho, 2022)
10 of the last 16 Irish-trained favourites have won
Since 1999 only 3 Irish-trained winners hadn’t won at the course before
11 of the last 25 winners had run in that season’s John Durkan Memorial Chase
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A huge week of Irish racing ahead with the 5-day Punchestown Festival (29th April-3rd May 2025). Like all big race meetings, we've got all the main trends and stats for the key races through the week – hopefully, these to help narrow down the fields and point you in the direction of a few winners……………….
Punchestown Festival Trends DAY ONE – Tuesday 29th April 2025
11 of the last 19 were won by the favourite
12 of the last 18 winners won a Grade 1 or 2
16 of the last 19 priced 8/1 or shorter
11 of the last 19 returned 2/1 or shorter
18 of the last 23 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
No British-trained winner for 24 years (18 runners)
Supreme Novice Hurdle winners have only won 4 times
17 of the last 18 were aged either 5 or 6 years-old
Willie Mullins winners in 2009, 2010, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2023 & 2024
Trainer Noel Meade winners in 2002, 2005, 2006 & 2008
Trainer Jessie Harrington won in 2013 and 2016
2024 Winner: Mystical Power (2/1 fav)
6:00pm – William Hill Champion Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+) 2m
9 of the last 21 runnings were won by the favourite
20 of the last 25 winners from the top three in the betting
16 of the last 22 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
16 of the last 22 were Irish-trained
16 of the last 22 were aged 9 or younger
French breds have won 11 of the last 17
18 of the last 22 priced 7/1 or shorter
13 of the last 22 had won at the course
All of the last 22 winners had won over 2m
5 of the last 19 were unplaced that season’s Champion Chase at Cheltenham
15 of the last 21 winners raced in the Queen Mother Champion Chase
7 of the last 21 winners raced in the Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown)
Paul Nicholls won the race in 2008 & 2009
Willie Mullins won the race in 2010, 2015, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022 & 2023
Paul Townend has ridden 4 of the last 5 winners
Captain Guinness was 2nd in 2024
2024 Winner: Banbridge (6/1)
Punchestown Festival Trends DAY TWO – Wednesday 30th April 2025
5:30pm– Ladbrokes Punchestown Gold Cup (Grade 1) (5yo+) 3m 1/2f
Recent Punchestown Gold Cup Winners
2024 – FASTORSLOW (7/2)
2023 – FASTORSLOW (20/1)
2022 – ALLAHO (6/5 fav)
2021 – CLAN DES OBEAUX (10/3)
2020 – No race (Covid)
2019 – KEMBOY (13/8 fav)
2018 – BELLSHILL (4/1)
2017 – SIZING JOHN (9/10)
2016 – CARLINGFORD LOUGH (12/1)
2015 – DON COSSACK (5/2)
2014 – BOSTON BOB (5/2 fav)
2013 – SIR DES CHAMPS (2/1 fav)
2012 – CHINA ROCK (20/1)
2011 – FOLLOW THE PLAN (20/1)
2010 – PLANET OF SOUND (14/1)
2009 – NOTRE PERE (15/8 fav)
2008 – NEPTUNE COLLONGES (9/10 fav)
2007 – NEPTUNE COLLONGES (8/1)
2006 – WAR OF ATTRITION (4/5 fav)
2005 – KICKING KING (8/11 fav)
2004 – BEEF OF SALMON (5/4 fav)
2003 – FIRST GOLD (7/4 fav)
Punchestown Gold Cup Betting Trends
18/21 – Top 4 last time out
16/21 – Irish-trained winners
16/21 – Aged 8 or younger
15/21 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
11/21–Ran in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
10/21 – Favourites
10/21 – Priced 2/1 or less
9/21 – Raced in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time out
9/21 – Won last time out
5/21 – Won by trainer Willie Mullins (5 of the last 11)
3/21 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
Paul Townend has only ridden one winner (Allaho, 2022)
The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 6/1
9 of the last 19 favourites
Only 4 of the last 20 winners aged 9+
10 of the last 16 Irish-trained favourites have won
Since 1999 only 3 Irish-trained winners hadn’t won at the course before
11 of the last 25 winners raced in that season’s John Durkan Memorial Chase
Punchestown Festival Trends DAY THREE – Thursday 1st May 2025
3:40pm – Mongey Communications La Touche Cup Cross Country Chase (5yo+) 4m1f
6 winning favourites in the last 18 (3 join/co)
Trainer Enda Bolger has won 13 of the last 25
11 of the last 18 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
8 of the last 18 carried 12-2 or more
15 of the last 18 winners were aged 9 or older
7 of the last 18 winners ran in the race 12 months ago
21 of the last 29 winners returned 7/1 or less
10 of the last 18 winners raced in the Cheltenham Festival Cross Country race
5 of the last 6 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey
Trainer Peter Maher has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
8 of the last 10 winners aged 11+
Vital Island won the race in 2023
Three By Two was 2nd in 2024
Coko Beach was 3rd in 2024
9 favourites in the last 13 runnings
17 of the last 18 winners priced 11/2 or shorter
The last 10 winners all aged 6 or 7
26 of the last 28 winners priced 6/1 or less
11 of the last 18 winners raced in the Arkle Chase (Cheltenham) that season
UK-based trainers have won 4 of the last 15 times they have had entries
16 of the last 20 winners had run at least 4 times over fences before
Willie Mullins winners in 2009, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023 & 2024 (won the last 9)
Paul Townend has won 3 of the last 4
17/21 – Ran the Cheltenham Festival that season
16/21 – Priced 6/1 or shorter
14/21 – Aged 8 or younger
14/21 – Placed in the top three in their last race
14/21 – Irish trained winners
10/21 – Trained by Willie Mullins
10/21 – Won their last race
10/21 – Favourites
7/21 – Raced in the Aintree Hurdle last time out
5/21 – Raced in the Mares’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
16 of the last 18 winners aged 9 or younger
11 of the 27 runnings have been won by a British-trained runner
8 of the last 20 winners ran at Aintree’s Grand National Meeting last time
14 of the last 21 winners had won a Grade One over 3m+
Trainer Gordon Elliott has won the race just once (2024)j
Only two Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) winner in the last 24 runnings
Favourites have won 12 of the last 23 runnings
12 of the last 22 winners won last time out
Punchestown Festival Trends DAY FOUR – Friday 2nd May 2025
6:40pm – Boodles Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m
13 of the last 20 favourites (2 joint)
12 of the last 18 winners won their last race
16 of the last 17 winners finished in the top 3 in last race
17 of the last 19 winners were aged 6 or older
16 of the last 25 winners raced in that season’s Champion Hurdle
The current Champion Hurdler hasn't finish out of the top two when running
16 of the last 19 winners returned 3/1 or shorter in the market
Willie Mullins has won the race in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2023 & 2024
10 of the last 13 winners returned odds-on
17 of the last 19 winners were Irish-trained
Paul Townend has ridden the last two winners
2024 Winner: State Man (2/7 fav)
6:05pm – Alanna Homes Champion Novice Hurdle (GRADE 1) 2m4f
13 of the last 19 favourites
12 of the last 19 winners were aged 5 years-old
17 of the last 19 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
Trainer Willie Mullins has won 13 of the last 22 runnings (last 4)
Jockey Paul Townend has ridden the last 4 winners
17 of the last 23 winners won last time out
Paul Townend and Willie Mullins have won the last 4 renewals
Since 1996 all-bar-two of the winners were aged either 5 or 6 years-old
Owner J Donnelly has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
2024 Winner: Ballyburn (1/5 fav)
Punchestown Festival Trends DAY FIVE – Saturday 3rd May 2025
4:50pm – Ballymore Four Year-Old Hurdle (GRADE 1) 2m
9 winning favourites in the last 19
17 of the last 19 winners returned 15/2 or less
Willie Mullins trained the winner in 2006, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2022, 2023 & 2024
Paul Townend and Willie Mullins have won the last 3
Willie Mullins has won 8 of the last 10 renewals
4 of the last 9 winners have been mares (last 2)
15 of the last 18 winners ran in that season’s Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham)
9 of the last 16 winners ran in that season’s Spring Juvenile Hurdle
10 of the last 26 runnings went to a British-trained runner
Owner Rich Ricci has won 4 of the last 7 runnings
2024 Winner: Kargese (9/4 fav)
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Run at Ascot racecourse this Group 3 flat race is staged for horses aged 4 or older and run over a trip of 2m.
Here at Geegeez, we take a look back at recent winners and give you the key trends ahead of the 2025 renewal – this year run on Wednesday 30th April 2025
19/22 – Had won at least 3 times before
18/22 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
16/22 – Had won a Group race before
16/22 – Rated 108 or higher
15/22 – Had won over at least 2m (flat) before
14/22 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
14/22 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
14/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/22 – Placed favourites
9/22 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
9/22 – Winning distance – ½ or less
5/22 – Winning favourites
4/22 – Won last time out
3/22 – Raced at Nottingham last time out
2/22 – Went onto win the Ascot Gold Cup (2 of last 12)
The average winning SP in the last 22 runnings is 4/1
Note: The 2012 renewal was staged at Kempton, 2006 & 2005 at Lingfield, while the 2020 was run at Newcastle
The ITV cameras head to Sandown Park this Friday (25th April, 2025)– as always on the big days, here at Geegeez we are on hand to take your through the best races from a TRENDS and STATS angle………that include the Bet365 Mile, Classic Trial, Gordon Richard Stakes and the Esher Cup.
Note: The 2023 meeting was called off due to a waterlogged track.
Sandown Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)
1.15 – bet365 Handicap Cl2 5f RTV
10/10 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
9/10 – Drawn in stalls 5 or lower
9/10 – Returned 15/2 or less in the betting
8/10 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
6/10 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
4/10 – Came from stall 4
2/10 – Trained by David O’Meara
2/10 – Ridden by Daniel Tudhope
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1
Trainer Jim Boyle has a 25% SR with his 3yolds at the track
Jockey Billy Loughnane has a 30% SR riding 3yolds at the track
Jockey Silvestre De Sousa has a 24% SR riding 3yolds at the track
Jockey Hollie Doyle is just 2-23 riding 3yolds at the track
2024 Winner: Equity Law (15/2)
Trainer: Andrew Balding
1.50 - bet365 Esher Cup (Handicap) Cl2 1m14y ITV
20/20 – Had won no more than twice before
18/20 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
18/20 – Never raced at Sandown before
16/20 – Had between 2-4 runs before
16/20 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
16/20 – Priced 17/2 or shorter in the betting
14/20 – Had won just once before
13/20 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
13/20 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/20 – Had won over at least 1 mile before
11/20 – Unplaced favourites
11/20 – Won last time out
5/20 – Raced at Kempton last time out
3/20 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
3/20 – Trained by the Hannon stable
3/20 – Winning favourites
2/20– Trained by John Gosden
Jockey Ryan Moore has won 2 of the last 4
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 6/1
Trainer Ralph Beckett has a 23% SR with his 3yolds at the track
Trainer Richard Hannon has just a 3% SR with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Billy Loughnane has a 30% SR riding 3yolds at the track
Jockey Ryan Moore has a 28% SR riding 3yolds at the track
Jockey Silvestre De Sousa has a 24% SR riding 3yolds at the track
Jockey Hollie Doyle is 0-24 riding 3yolds at the track
18/20 – Officially rated 109 or higher
18/20 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
18/20 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
18/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
17/20 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
17/20 – Had won at least twice (UK) before
16/20 – Had won a Group race before
14/20 – Placed favourites
14/20 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/20 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
8/20 – Irish bred
8/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint) (last 3 favs won)
7/20 – Had run at Sandown before
6/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 5)
5/20 – Trained by John Gosden (3 of the last 8)
5/20 – Won last time out
2/20– Ridden by James Doyle
6 of the last 8 winners drawn stalls 3 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 11/4
Trainer John & Thady Gosden have a 27% SR with their 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer William Haggas has a 24% SR with their 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Andrew Balding is just 2-33 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Tom Marquand has a 22% SR riding 4+ year-olds at the track
2024 Winner: Okeechobee (100/30)
Trainer: Harry Charlton
3.00 - bet365 Mile (Group 2) Cl1 1m14y ITV
17/19 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
16/19 – Had won a Group race before
16/19 – Had won over a mile before
15/19 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/19 – Had won 5 or more times before
12/19 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
12/19 – Placed favourites
11/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/19 – Aged 4 years-old
10/19 – Winning favourites
8/19 – Trained by the Hannon stable
7/19 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
6/19 – Horses drawn in stall 3 that finished second
6/19 – Had run at Sandown before
5/19 – Previous Group One winners
4/19 – Won last time out
2/19 – Trained by David O’Meara
2/19 – Won by a previous winner of the race
4 of last 12 winners have come from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2
Silvestre De Sousa has ridden 2 of the last 4 winners
4 of the last 8 winners from stall 8
6 of the last 9 winners from stalls 4 (2) or 8 (4)
Trainer John & Thady Gosden have a 27% SR with their 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Hannon has a 21% SR with their 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Andrew Balding is just 2-33 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
17/19 – Won between 1-3 times before
16/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Placed in the top 2 last time out
13/19 – Never raced at Sandown before
13/19 – Had won over at least 1m before
9/19 – Irish bred winners
8/19 – Raced at Leopardstown (2), Curragh (2) or Newbury (4) last time out
8/19 – Horses drawn in stall 4 that finished in the first 3
8/19 – Won last time out
6/19 – Winning favourites
5/19 – Trained by John Gosden
3/19 – Trained by Andrew Balding (3 of the last 9)
3/19– Winners from stall 4
3/19 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
3/19 – Winners from stall 3
3/19 – Ridden by William Buick
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2
No winner from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 8 runnings
Trainer Ralph Beckett has a 23% SR with his 3yolds at the track
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has a 50% SR with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Ryan Moore has a 28% SR riding 3yolds at the track
Jockey Hector Crouch has a 28% SR riding 3yolds at the track
Jockey Kieran Shoemark is just 3-34 (9%) 3yolds at the track
2024 Winner: Arabian Crown (5/6 fav)
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
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With the 2025 Cheltenham Festival now fading out of sight in the rear view mirror, and with Aintree and, gasp, the flat season emerging on the horizon, now is a perfect moment to have a quick think about the 2026 Cheltenham ante post markets.
There's obviously any amount of unpredictability to be visited on the scene in the ensuing 360-odd days but that's accounted for at least to some degree in the prices, all of which affords a small swing at a big payoff. I won't be tying up much capital in this venture, but it's a bit of fun and could give us plenty of highs and lows as the narrative plays out through Aintree, Punchestown and then the Autumn, Winter and Spring of 2025/6.
First things first: I'm not interested in the novice hurdle races. None of the last three Supreme winners had any degree of public profile a year prior to their successes, and the hokey cokey between Baring Bingham and Albert Bartlett is a targets guessing game nobody can win. The novice chases offer slightly more hope but even there we've the challenge of knowing which are natural hedge hoppers and which will stay over hurdles.
Best then to focus on the open championship events: the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Stayers' Hurdle and Gold Cup. Here's goes (next to) nothing...
Champion Hurdle 2026
This looks likely to be a very open division next season. Constitution Hill has not come back to his old form, though he has kept on winning - barring that tumble last week. He'll only be nine next year and has few miles on the clock for various reasons; but he's been famously tough to get right and is readily opposed in the context of a project like this.
State Man is the same age as Connie and would have been an unambiguous winner this year but for that last flight brain fart from Townend (just my opinion). That performance was a surprise in one way but not in another. After all, he was the reigning champ in spite of a middling season; and, once Constitution Hill had exited he had only Brighterdaysahead to beat on the form book. Her position in the market owed everything to trainer Gordon Elliott's high regard and to a single thirty length win that was very, very hard to interpret literally. She'll surely go to the Mares' Hurdle, or chasing, next season.
Golden Ace was the beneficiary of the champ's late departure. I loved the story, but I don't think for a second she'll be good enough to defend her crown. So we're looking for a new champion, on my reading anyway.
The top four in the current ante post lists are Con Hill, The New Lion, Lossiemouth and Kopek Des Bordes. Let's first deal with Lossiemouth. To my eye, she wants at least two and a half miles and if connections are seeking a championship she should be going up, not down, in trip. We'll get to that in due course. She was outpaced at Kempton behind Constitution Hill, and she fluffed her lines for no credible reason when going hoof to hoof with State Man. At a tempo that suited far better, in the 2m4f Mares' Hurdle, she waltzed away from a smart mare in Jade De Grugy without in any way suggesting her stamina bottom had been reached.
The New Lion has to be in the argument after what was an impressive win in the Turners (Baring Bingham). That's not been as good a trial for the Champion Hurdle as some have made out, the only recent winner to double up in the Champion in recent times being Faugheen in 2014/15. Another novice, Kopek Des Bordes, is as short as 4/1 and as long as 10/1 to win next year's Champion Hurdle, perhaps summing up the challenges of identifying race plans. The aforementioned C Hill did the Supreme/Champion Hurdle double in 2022/23 and this lad looks highly promising... if he stays hurdling.
I'm not at all convinced by Triumph winner Poniros at this stage, though he may yet develop into a five-year-old Champion Hurdler; but one Festival winner that is worth a second look in this market is Kargese. Her form has been under-rated - she's a dual Grade 1 scorer and hasn't been out of the first two in ten runs - in spite of a tendency to over-race. She easily won the County Hurdle off a mark of 141, the exact same County mark from which State Man prefaced his Champion Hurdle score a year later. True, he had more of a 'dark horse' profile but Kargese's form is really, really good (I noted in my County Hurdle preview how I felt last year's juveniles generally, and her in particular, had perhaps been underrated).
She'll have to improve a stone and more from an official mark of around 145 and she might be kept to mares' only races and aimed at the Mares' Hurdle. In her case, as one who tends to pull quite a bit, a shorter faster test might be just the ticket. She'd get the 7lb mares' allowance if running in the Champion Hurdle and would be bidding to emulate Golden Ace, Honeysuckle, Epatante and Annie Power who between them won five of the last ten Champion Hurdles. Importantly, she's a price - 33/1 - for a throwaway dart.
Suggestions: Many of these have some sort of chance if lining up a year from now. But, in a number of cases - notably Constitution Hill, Brighterdaysahead, Lossiemouth, and perhaps Kopek Des Bordes - they are either fragile or have other potential routes. State Man will be a year older and the race fell in his lap this year, before he declined the opportunity. Poniros might be more credible if winning at Punchestown but I'm not quite subscribing to him yet; and Golden Ace was a glorious advertisement for buying a lottery ticket, but should be lottery odds to do it again.
That leaves me with The New Lion and, more tentatively, Kargese.
Back The New Lion at 7/1 win only. For tiny stakes, try Kargese at 33/1 win only.
Queen Mother Champion Chase 2026
The Champion Chase is a favourite's graveyard, seven odds-on shots getting turned over in the past decade. And yet the game remains to try to get a horse to the race at a shorter - ideally, much shorter - price than was taken.
An obvious starting point is this year's winner, Marine Nationale, who was winning the argument with Quilixios when that one came down at the last, eventually scoring by a slightly misleading 18 lengths. Nevertheless, it was an excellent effort and he'll be following the precedent of both Altior and Energumene in trying double up aged nine next season. If he gets to the gig, he'll have leading claims.
Jonbon would have been much closer if he'd not rearranged the furniture in the back straight. But would he have beaten the winner? Possibly, but not definitely. In any case, he'll be ten next year and that list of excuses for getting beaten at Cheltenham is growing.
The absent and much-missed Sir Gino is 7/2 favourite in ante post lists. Given that, as far as I'm aware, he only came out of an equine hospital on Monday, he wouldn't be a huge pile shorter than 7/2 to race again, let alone win a Festival Grade 1. I really, really hope he does get back, and that he retains his ability; but his quote in this market is ludicrous. He's half the price of the demonstrably alive and kicking winner from last week!
Back in the real world, there's a strong argument to be made that Majborough would have won the Arkle but for bungling two out - you've got to jump 'em! - and that, therefore, 8/1 about his Champion Chase chance is a sliver of value. Sizing Europe did the Arkle/Queen Mother double in 2010/11 and, since then, so too have Sprinter Sacre and Altior. Of course, Maj would not be reprising those multi-year heroics because he didn't complete the first part of the job; but the Arkle remains a rock solid Champion Chase trial.
Gaelic Warrior has a big squiggle against him though it surprised me to discover he's still only seven, so will be eight next year. Age won't stop him, then, but he's not an ante post conveyance by any measure of the phrase. If Fact To File doesn't go to the Gold Cup - presumably after winning the King George - then the game's up: a fit FTF is unlikely to go shorter than a repeat Ryanair tilt, so I can't have him on my mind for the two mile championship.
Ballyburn is Pirandello's idea of a character in search of an author. I'm sure he knows the part he was born to play, but seemingly none charged with his care do. That's grossly unfair, of course, and I merely mean that there's a lack of clarity around where best to crystalise Ballyburn's undeniable ability. I feel it might be over hurdles and over further. But, like those closer to the decision making than me, I don't really know (though I'm pretty sure it's not two miles and fences).
Il Est Francais is a big no here, even though they might try. He's very in and out, and a repeat attempt at a King George - which so nearly paid off - ought to be on the cards. That would be a weird warm up for a Champion Chase.
Although he's not quite for me, Solness has been somewhat discarded in this market. He won two Grade 1's in the run up to Cheltenham and, with a more measured campaign next season, could definitely emerge as a contender. I get the impression his rise this term took connections somewhat by surprise leaving him possibly a tad over-cooked when Cheltenham came around. He'll only be eight next March and he should not be 40/1.
At the other end of the pace spectrum is Jango Baie. He got what for me was the ride of the meeting from Nico de Boinville in winning the Arkle. As a strong stayer who probably wants 2m4f, the plan at the outset was to lead and set a searching gallop. But when a couple of others wanted to do that, Nico reined his lad in and let them have at it in front of him. He hunted around off the pace until after the second last and then came with one withering run to mow down the flagging pugilists up top. I'm by no means his biggest fan, but this was a deliberate and masterful piece of steering from NdB.
Anyway, the point is that the Champ Chase can be run in similar fashion and that would allow a reprisal of this performance for Jango Baie were he to be invited here rather than the more obvious Ryanair. He would actually be bidding for the Arkle/Champion Chase double!
Suggestions: Sir Gino may rise to the top of this tree but he has much further to climb than most in order to achieve that. Apart from wagering, I seriously hope he does. I thought he might have won the Champion Hurdle this year but, as we know, connections opted for a different path. He makes a market that is 7/1 bar him in a race which rarely gets more than eight or nine runners. If you can get one to the start line, then, you have half (or, more correctly, a third of) a chance of hitting the frame.
This is pretty simple for me in terms of long range ante post. Marine Nationale must be on the ticket, and so must Majborough. Tiny tickles at huge prices on Solness and Jango Baie are not without merit.
Back Marine Nationale at 7/1 win only. Back Majborough at 8/1 win only.
Maybe limp in with either or both of 33/1 Jango Baie and/or 40/1 Solness.
Stayers' Hurdle 2026
I've put 6/1 Teahupoo (soft ground), 12/1 Ballyburn (in case he reverts to hurdles) and 20/1 Lossiemouth (this is the race for her in 2026, I just need to persuade Willie!) in some very speculative trebles but couldn't sensibly recommend you do likewise. All of the caveats very much emptored.
Gold Cup 2026
Back on a punting footing which could be described as at least relatively terra firma next to the Stayers' Hurdle market, the 2026 Gold Cup is unlikely to suddenly deliver a swathe of new candidates for primacy.
Inothewayurthinkin was a clear and unambiguous winner last week, and even if the wonderful Galopin Des Champs was a touch under par (which I certainly feel he was), the young buck holds all the cards going into next season. Galopin will be eligible for veterans' races from January 2026, as will third placed Gentlemansgame, fifth placed The Real Whacker and seventh placed Banbridge. Royale Pagaille and Ahoy Senor already have their bus passes, as it were.
Monty's Star will be nine and could not be fully discounted given a very wet Festival Friday, but his form is not as good as Inothewayurthinkin and he doesn't have the upside potential either. Looking at the Gold Cup winner's form profile this season, there's a case to be made for him drifting in price between now and next March - he was beaten by diminishing margins in each of his three pre-Cheltenham races this term - and that tempers ante post enthusiasm a little at this stage. On the other hand, were those defeats with a workable Grand National mark in mind?
Also in the green and gold is the Ryanair winner, Fact To File. Last year's Broadway (RSA as was) Novices' Chase winner at three miles was pointed at the shorter G1 last week, and fair bolted up in that assignment. Indeed, it was probably - or at least arguably - the performance of the meeting. I'm not totally convinced he'll last an extra six furlongs in the Gold Cup, but there cannot be another race to entertain him in at this stage.
Galopin is highly unlikely to be able to get a third Gold Cup aged ten and 8/1 is a sucker price, I'm afraid. Fastorslow has tended to be slow when overmatched; Grey Dawning was pulled up in the King George and ducked Cheltenham for pot hunting at Kelso - that doesn't put him in the Gold Cup picture; Majborough would be very doubtful to go this far aged six; and the rest are going to need to find a stone from somewhere which, while not impossible - I've suggested Kargese can maybe do that in the Tuesday feature - feels unlikely in their, typically more exposed, cases.
Suggestions: Few things in life are as simple as first meets the eye, so there's an above average chance I'm not giving this enough consideration. With that said, it looks an open and shut case for the two green and gold Festival winners in open Grade 1 chases last week. Yes, they're short (about 9/4 dutched), but if they stay healthy (a reasonably sized 'if', granted) they are head and shoulders above what we know of the others, the venerable veteran dual champ aside.
Back Fact To File at 6/1 win only.
Hold fire on Inothewayurthinkin at 5/1 as he could drift after a defeat early next season. That would be the time to bet him, at nearer 10/1. [Galopin went out to 6/1 after getting beaten in the John Durkan first time up last season]
Summary
It's all a bit of fun this far out - and indeed much closer to the day - so if you feel like following me in, keep it small and manageable is my advice. If one of them wins, it'll pretty much pay for the rest losing. And, because I love a bit of mugginess, I've permed a few of them in wildly ambitious trebles: well, faint heart never won fair maiden and all that.
At the very least, a bet like this gives us something to look forward to, and to shout about, in the year-long buildup to the 2026 Cheltenham Festival. That in itself is worth a small cheer!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/2.79393753-scaled.jpg12802560Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-18 17:33:112025-03-18 17:33:11Taking a Flyer on the 2026 Cheltenham Festival
And so to Friday, Gold Cup day, on what has - for me at least - been a chastening week. The Chastening Festival: I hope that doesn't catch on.
Regardless of where you are against your ledger, we have seven spectacular servings of sport to savour so let's wash our hands and dig in...
1.20 Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m1f)
Previewed by Matt Tombs.
The Triumph Hurdle changed complexion hugely with the introduction of the Fred Winter in 2005. The average field size in the previous decade was 26. In the Fred Winter era that average has shrunk to 16, and just 13 in the last decade. All races evolve so we need to be careful when using trends that include renewals from a long time ago - for the Triumph it is often best to calculate trends starting in 2005. Incredibly, this year there are 18 slated to face the starter.
Possibly the biggest under-bet factor in juvenile hurdles more generally is that, being so young, these horses often develop more during the season than older novices – and they develop at different times. It’s not uncommon for juveniles to go backwards as they develop physically. With so many more of the juveniles now being jumps-bred rather than having had a long career on the flat nowadays I think that’s a factor that’s likely to keep increasing in importance.
It is therefore a division to be particularly open-minded about whether form will be repeated. In the Triumph that question is especially impacted by the quality of the trials. Britain has four Grade 2 and five Listed trials for the Triumph. These races often lack depth: this century all nine Triumph winners that contested a British Grade 2, won that Grade 2.
In Ireland it’s a different story. The programme is designed to funnel the best horses together and typically a lot run in the Spring Juvenile at the Dublin Racing Festival. Since it became a Grade 1 in 2010, it’s produced nine Triumph winners but only three were doing the double. Put another way, backing Grade 1 Spring winners in the Triumph would have lost you 30% of your betting bank, whereas backing the losers would have made you a 106% profit.
The Spring is run in early February and, given the ‘development factor’ I outlined above, another trend is to focus on recent Graded form more widely. You might think that Graded form (including Grade 1 winning form) in the novice and juvenile Grade 1s at the Festival would be so obvious as to be over-bet. But that’s often not the case – for example, if since 2005 in the Triumph you’d backed every unbeaten hurdler that had won a Graded hurdle, you’d have made a +23 (79% ROI) profit.
However, if you restricted that to unbeaten hurdlers who had won a Graded hurdle since the turn of the year the record improves to +28 (117% ROI) and would have identified the same eight winners.
East India Dock won the Grade 2 Finesse in great style in January. He likes a sound surface, is proven at the track and on form he arguably has enough in hand to suggest he should be odds-on here.
Triumph Hurdle Recent Winners
Triumph Hurdle Pace Map
A big field and should be lots of pace on. East India Dock tends to lead in his races but I don't think he needs to. Should track and get first run. Obviously, Willie has plenty of tactical options with his ELEVEN runners!
Triumph Hurdle Selection
East India Dock should be shorter on form, some of the horses around him owe their price more to reputation than track performances.
Suggestion: Back East India Dock to win at 2/1 or bigger.
Matt's Tix Pix: East India Dock on A, a couple of alternates on B
The formerly indecipherable County Hurdle has been rendered a coin flip between Messrs Mullins, W., and Skelton, D. in recent times. Indeed, in a race typically with 20+ runners, it's faintly bonkers that they've gobbled up nine of the most recent ten renewals. Willie also won it in 2010 and 2011 for good measure.
True, they tend to come mob-handed, but their winners have been 12/1, 33/1, 11/4, 11/2, 12/1, 33/1, 20/1, 8/1 and 25/1.
Five- and six-year-olds - in other words, seriously unexposed horses - have generally been the winning ticket, though they've also saddled three eight-year-old winners between them, at odds of 33/1, 12/1 and 20/1. So if not a young horse then demand a price, maybe.
Two of those older winners were very high class, and rated accordingly (146 and 158) while the younger horses - indeed all other winners bar Belfast Banter (129) since 2009 - were rated 134 to 141; and if you ignore subsequent Champion Hurdle winner State Man (extremely unlucky not to double up on Tuesday), that band narrows to 134-139. A feature of this race is that all winners since 2009 were patiently ridden, either in midfield or held up.
Of the Mullins gang this time, Daddy Long Legs is rated too high for a young horse, and Absurde has shown his hand too much, surely. But the other pair, Ethical Diamond and Kargese, are of clear interest. The former was five lengths behind the latter in last year's Spring Juvenile at DRF before completely failing to fire on heavy at Cheltenham next time. This season, after a promising effort on the flat at Royal Ascot, he ran down the field in a handicap at Christmas before bolting up in a very ordinary maiden hurdle. None of the 16 that followed him home there and ran since has won, from 19 collective attempts; and Ethical Diamond has been raised 12lb from his pre-race Irish mark (the Irish handicapper raised him only 6lb). He'll probably appreciate better ground but looks fairly harshly weighted all things considered, even if he is open to improvement.
Kargese is probably Willie's most obvious chance. She's never been out of the first two in nine career starts, four of them Grade 1's, two of them winning Grade 1's. Her form when within a length of Take No Chances has been well advertised by that one running third in the Mares' Hurdle, and it is possible the handicapper has underrated the ability of last year's juveniles. She has 141, the same mark as State Man won from and, while she is unlikely to be of his calibre, she may be a fair bit better than she's currently rated. She's versatile in terms of run style and will surely be waited with and, though it's a tough ask for a mare, Spirit Leader won back in 2003 from just a smallish number to have tried.
And what about Team Dan? Well it's only Valgrand for him, one shot wonder this year. This lad was impressive when racking up a hat-trick in early season, none more so than in a Grade 2 on good ground here. He was put in his place by Potters Charm when stepped up in trip, again around here, next time and has since got a five pound rebate from the handicapper for two non-descript efforts. He arrives here as a six-year-old novice on a perch of 134 and has been rested 77 days since, three of Skelton's four wins being rested 80, 97 and 124 days. Too easy? Maybe, maybe not.
With such a duopoly in the past decade, it's difficult to try to make a case for another though there are obviously plenty of respected operators in what is a smaller than usual field - just 16 declared. Principle among those shrewdies could be Joseph O'Brien who bids to win at back to back Festivals with Lark In The Morning, the 2024 Fred Winter champ. He's run acceptably twice since then, once for the UK handicapper, but still gets 2lb more weight than he had in that Haydock sighter. It's possible his best form is on softer turf than it's likely to be, but there's little doubt he'll have been optimally prepared.
County Hurdle Recent Winners
County Hurdle Pace Map
A smaller field this year and no obvious front runner. I doubt it'll be a tactical affair but it's difficult to call who'll make the pace.
County Hurdle Selection
I'm keeping this simple. I think Kargese is plenty short enough for all that I love her chance (and backed her ante post at bigger), so I'll suggest Valgrand to 'return to form'. Ethical Diamond is punitively handicapped but may still make the frame.
This race has only been run for four years so there are no long term past trends to dig into. Instead, I have looked at the last ten years of mares only Class 1 chases between 2m3f and 2m6f. There have been 46 such races of which 35 have been won by either the favourite or the second favourite. This suggests that this type of race tends not to have much strength in depth, and the four winners of this particular Festival race have all been 3/1 or shorter.
Another key trend to note in these races is that last time out (LTO) winners outperform those horses who didn’t win last time. LTO winners have won 25 races from 106 (23.6%) compared with 21 from 177 (11.9%) for those that didn’t win last time. There is a big differential between the placed results, too, with LTO winners placing 45% of the time, while LTO non-winners are down at 25%.
Horses that have previously won a Graded or Listed event hit a 24% strike rate compared with a 12% strike rate for those that have not.
Horses that were favourite or second favourite LTO have scored more than twice as often as those that were third or higher in the market. Not only that they have been better value with an A/E index of 0.96 compared to 0.81.
This year nine runners go to post with four rated over 150 and it will be a massive surprise if something rated lower wins this. Let’s look at the four main protagonists.
Willie Mullins has had two wins and two seconds in this race, and he runs two here which are first and second in the betting. Firstly, he has Dinoblue, runner up in the race last year. In that 2024 renewal jockey Mark Walsh may have been taken by surprise when the winner, Limerick Lace, kicked turning in and that could have cost her the race. Walsh will be keen not to allow any horse too much rope turning in this time around. A positive is that she ticks all the boxes from the trends shared above. A concern is that she generally races over 2 miles or 2 miles 1 furlong and, despite going close last year, this trip might be right on her limit stamina wise. She is likely to go off a short-priced favourite.
The Mullins second string is Allegorie De Vassy. She was fourth in this last year, second in 2023 and those were her only two runs at the track. Despite those two decent efforts she tends to jump out to her right, and I think that has cost her in the past here. She does arrive at Cheltenham in good form having finished second at Naas last time getting to within a quarter of a length of Dinoblue. That was over a shorter two-mile trip.
Limerick Lace, from the Gavin Cromwell stable, comes here as defending champion, but she has been beaten a total of 101 lengths in her last two starts. If it rains, her chances improve considerably but with the likely going good to soft I am happy to take her on at her current price.
Cromwell also runs Brides Hill. She has been turned over when odds on favourite in her last two runs which tempers enthusiasm a little. However, according to the trainer this has always been her target, and she should prefer the ground more than her stablemate. Her price reflects her recent form, but at her best she would be bang there
Mares' Chase Recent Winners
*New race in 2021
Mares' Chase Pace Map
Willie again holds the cards with both of his pair likely to be prominent in what should be an even paced tempo.
Mares' Chase Selection
Dinoblue is the most likely winner but with her trading around Evens in a nine-runner field is tight. For me this looks a race to tackle each way with Brides Hill.
3.20 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno.
Ah, the Spuds Race. There's a knack to punting this race, which is to expect something different to happen from what has been happening most of the season. With only one winner returned a single figure price since At Fishers Cross in 2013, we're going to be taking a swing. Naturally, such an approach can be feast or famine, so the faint-hearted might favour a different tack. Me? At this stage (Wednesday after racing), I'm in a massive hole on the week and don't plan to smash my way free, so it's the only course of action. OK, to the profile.
We're looking for a horse that has the class to have been running in Graded races - perhaps even Grade 1's - but without the necessary turn of foot to win such events, especially when the field sizes are small. Stellar Story last year was an archetypal winner so let's look at his form profile going into that race and see if we can't reverse engineer it:
The form image shows most recent (Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham) at the top, oldest at the bottom. Starting at the bottom, we can see he was a good bumper horse - good enough to win two of his three in that sphere. We can also see he'd got plenty of experience, adding four hurdle starts prior to the Festival to that trio of NH Flat spins. Next, note how he won a big field maiden hurdle before running well in defeat in small field Graded races, including at Grade 1 level at the Dublin Racing Festival. Before any of those Rules runs, he'd won an Irish point to point.
Stellar Story was available at 33/1 when I backed him a couple of weeks before his Spuds win, and he was sent off at the same price on the day. He was the 11th choice of the betting public!
Here's a horse running in the race this year:
He, too, won an Irish point prior to his Rules debut; and he also won two bumpers, including the Cheltenham Bumper when held up in a field of 19. Sent hurdling this term, he won in a field of 25 - count 'em! - on first start before being outpaced in consecutive Grade 1's. The horse in question is Jasmin De Vaux, of course, and he's now a little shorter than ideal. I backed him at 33/1 (bully for me, I know) but I'm not going to tip him here at 8/1 for all that he fits the bill.
Another that I like is Wingmen, second when Jasmin was fourth last time, in the Nathaniel Lacy Grade 1 at DRF. He won a bumper, then a maiden hurdle - beating Turners fourth Forty Coats - before being outpaced over 2m1f here. In two starts since that December sighter, he's finished third in the Lawlor's Of Naas and second as mentioned. He handles quick ground and has a very good profile for this.
Front runners have a good recent record in the race, as do prominent types, so that's a further positive to his chance; and his trainer, Gordon Elliott, won the race with the aforementioned identikit winner, Stellar Story.
And there's one more from the Leopardstown G1 worthy of a mention, I think. Sounds Victorius was fourth in the Champion Bumper last year, never nearer than at the finish. Second in a small field novice on hurdling debut, he then won a 12-runner maiden, leading then getting headed before outstaying a horse that looked very likely to win. Stepped straight up to Grade 1 level, he was again outpaced before plugging on. I'm not sure he's good enough for this - maybe he wants four miles rather than three - but he sort of fits the profile.
Fishery Lane was a six length fifth in last year's Champion Bumper and has looked fairly slow in his hurdle races to date. He's a bit of a flier on the basis that he's not run in Graded company over timber but that good effort at the Festival last year gives me some hope he can be competitive. He handles quicker ground and is surely in need of this extra road to slow the others down.
John McConnell went close in this in 2021 with Streets Of Doyen, and Intense Approach has a similar feel to that one: campaigned through the previous summer, a winning Cheltenham sighter at the October meeting before a midwinter break and one run prior to the Festival. Both had bundles of good ground form and were very experienced.
Of the Brits, Wendigo's Challow second to The New Lion could not have been better advertised, that one winning the Turners on Wednesday. The Challow has seen eight runs from its field since, five of them ending in victory; Wendigo won before and since that effort and could go well though I'm not convinced about his battling qualities (I could definitely be wrong on that).
There are a few classier types in the field, not least Jet Blue, Ballyhassen Paddy and the mare The Big Westerner; but there always are, and they usually get beat by the more streetwise contenders. At least that's the way to bet.
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Pace Map
Just loads and loads of pace here. It'll be attritional I expect and you want one that can handle that sort of cauldron.
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Selection
Very tricky and taking two (or three) win only pokes in this big field feels like a good idea. Jasmin De Vaux and Wingmen don't really fit the long price bill though both have their chance; I couldn't put you off a win bet on either. But at daft prices and for small money, I'll risk the trio of Fishery Lane, Sounds Victorius and Intense Approach win only.
Suggestion: Avoid the short-priced classy horses and punt something at a price that might be better suited to this kind of bare knuckle cage fight. Each of 25/1 Fishery Lane, 25/1 Sounds Victorius and 16/1 Intense Approach has a bit of a squeak if things fall kindly.
Matt's Tix Pix: I'll be putting some big prices on A and hoping to get a result.
GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is almost impossible to oppose in the Gold Cup as he attempts to emulate Arkle and Best Mate in winning three Gold Cups in a row in the post-war era. Having won his third Irish Gold Cup last month, he has scared off stablemate Fact To File, the only horse who had looked a serious threat to his crown at Christmas when John Durkan form was reversed in the Savills Chase. Fact To File finished closer in the Irish Gold Cup but only because Townend plated rope-a-dope in front and turned the race into a sprint, impressing with how he quickened from the last to the line, while Fact To File was collared on the post for second by Grangeclare West.
Accidents can befall any horse, at home or on the racecourse, so there really is no such thing as a banker; but there is no strong reason to oppose the dual winner on what he’s shown this season, with his defeat at Punchestown in the John Durkan easy to forgive given he’s neither at his best over that trip or at that track, where his only defeats when completing over fences have come. Beaten by Fact To File there, he has shown the form to be misleading by slamming that talented rival twice at Leopardstown, brooking no argument as to which is the better horse.
With last year’s placed horses exiting stage left and Grey Dawning reportedly bypassing Cheltenham altogether, the Gold Cup looks the favourite’s to lose unless the ground dries back more than expected. In that scenario, Banbridge might be a danger to him having been confirmed for the race on the back of his King George win. I’ve liked Banbridge since watching him win the Martin Pipe in the company of Brendan Powell, who could not praise the horse highly enough, but while he proved his stamina for a sharp three miles of the King George, he still has the speed for two miles, and there are very few with that speed who can also stretch out the extra two and a half furlongs required up Cheltenham’s daunting hill.
I considered L’Homme Presse the horse most likely to follow Galopin des Champs home, but a minor setback has ruled him out. Corbett’s Cross showed at Ascot that he doesn’t jump well enough to win a race like this, and the supplemented Inothewayurthinkin is the better of the McManus hopes now that Fact To File has been rerouted.
In truth, Inothewayurthinkin is clearly not as good as Fact To File, having finished behind that rival in races won by Galopin des Champs on his last two starts. On the other hand, he’s also not capable of winning a Ryanair being a thorough stayer, and a Gold Cup weakened by withdrawals is a very realistic option for Gavin Cromwell’s 2024 Kim Muir winner. The Grand National is his main aim, but with questions over most of his rivals, he looks the one most likely to pick up the pieces in an attritional race.
Of course, a tactical affair will suit Banbridge better, but I suspect Paul Townend will be aware that Banbridge is the one who could spoil the party and will look to make this a test of stamina. That scenario is likely to see Banbridge look the main danger for much of the race, but Inothewayurthinkin will be staying on best after the last. While he’s unlikely to lay a glove on the favourite, he has every chance of out-slogging the classy Banbridge for second. At time of writing, seven of Gavin Cromwell’s 11 runners on the first two days have been placed or would have been placed but for a late fall, and his team is in better form than most at this meeting.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Recent Winners
Cheltenham Gold Cup Pace Map
There's a very good chance that Galopin Des Champs and Paul Townend keep it simple by bidding to make all. A few of his rivals need to try to get him out of his comfort zone so that's something to keep in mind, but the champ doesn't need to lead.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Selection
Suggestion: Try a Galopin des Champs/Inothewayurthinkin Exacta
4.40 Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase (Class 2, 3m 2 1/2f)
Previewed by Paul Jones.
The news in the last few days surrounds Willitgoahead who has been bought and sent to Gordon Elliott who would have had no time to do anything with him so don’t let that have any effect on how you judge his chance. He is now more or less joint-fav with Angels Dawn having impressed with his jumping when winning at Thurles after racing in last early. I wouldn’t fancy those tactics being pulled off on the New Course so maybe he’ll sit handier early.
On the figures ANGELS DAWN is the one to beat as she receives a 7lb mares’ allowance here unlike when she won the Kim Muir two years ago (and would have been placed last year behind a Gold Cup hope but for a late fall). She also didn’t have that allowance when winning a point to point at Dromahane, beating Ryehill by 6l who has since run all over Itsontheline at Naas, and they are the other pair in the top four in the betting. Ryehill won that race despite a bad mistake three out and his jumping could let him down in this sterner test.
Angels Dawn is ten now, and up until last year the previous nine winners were aged ten or eleven. Sam Curling’s mare also finished a close-up third in last season’s Thyestes so competitive, big-field chases bring the very best out of her and I’m hoping that, after Sine Nomine last year, mares can bag back-to-back wins.
Runner-up for the last two seasons, Its On The Line is hard work but usually keeps pulling it out which is what made his Naas run, where he found little in the home straight, all the more disappointing. I think he needs to run himself into form/fitness as his very best efforts have been after Cheltenham but he is only reaching his prime now as he was just aged six and seven when runner-up for the last two runnings. Maybe Emmet Mullins had left more to work on at Naas than he is giving away (he had a hard race in that prep last year which may have taken an edge off him for Cheltenham?) but it was disconcerting to hear rumours that JP McManus, owner of Its On The Line, was trying to buy Willitgoahead: that may suggest a lack of confidence if the whispers are accurate.
Behind the Irish-trained top four in the market come four home hopes and the Brits have won three of the last four renewals. I can’t see Allmankind staying, and Music Drive has yet to run in a hunter chase (just one of those has won since 1993), so the other pair interest me more. Paul Nicholls has trained four Festival Hunter Chase winners so Shearer is respected, though I wonder if the Aintree Foxhunters’ might suit him better as he typically races over shorter trips and easier tracks.
So Fairly Famous appeals most of the home team. He beat the 2023 winner of this race, Premier Magic, by 4½l on Cheltenham’s Hunter Chase night back in early May (also won the same race by 15l the previous season) and has since won both his point to points this winter and clearly goes very well for Gina Andrews.
Rocky’s Howya was third two years ago but missed last season, which I know full well as was looking out for him as my horse for the 2024 version. He would have been closer but for meeting interference on the run-in behind Premier Magic and Its On The Line in 2023, so he also interests me now that he is back and won a point last time out.
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Recent Winners
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Pace Map
The map only shows Rules form, so ignores point to points. So it might not be very indicative. The field size suggests there'll be plenty of pace on at least, I'm just not sure from where it comes.
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Selection
Suggestion: Back 4/1 Angels Dawn to win, and/or consider 20/1 Fairly Famous and 18/1 Rocky's Howya each way.
Matt's Tix Pix: Angels Dawn and a few others on A, some bigger prices on B
A race that seemingly revolves around one horse this year, Kopek De Mee.
What we know about him; this will be his first start on British soil for Willie Mullins, having raced five times over hurdles in France for his previous yard and, as such, the handicapper hasn’t had a lot to go on, giving him his French mark of 136 (which he has to do, by the way).
It isn’t as if his French form means he’s thrown in here, though. Timeform, who can on occasions rave about these marks given to Willie’s from France, have him only fifth best, admittedly with a “p”, so progress is likely. Neither have we seen him for 310 days, and all his form so far has been on deep ground. We’ve seen good things beaten in this before; at 5-2 you can leave me out, thanks very much.
There’s one in here I’ve been keen on since his Warwick run at the start of February and those of you that have been lucky/unlucky enough to watch or listen to the podcasts I’ve been doing for a rival publication (sorry Matt) will know that No Ordinary Joe is the horse that caught my, and others', eyes that day.
No Ordinary Joe was seventh in the Martin Pipe last year when Nicky was having his week from hell, and this time around he’s been spared a hard campaign, racing just the three times this season but it was a much better effort at Warwick last time, despite not looking entirely fit.
He was close enough two out to throw down a challenge but Callum Pritchard looked after him a bit after the last, and despite only being beaten two lengths, and he looked like there was a bit left in the tank.
The handicapper left him alone for that, meaning a mark of 138 will be 2lb lower than last year, and although Pritchard has been claimed by Ben Pauling to ride No Questions Asked, Freddie Gingell, among the winners elsewhere this week, is a most able deputy.
Wodhooh is an in-form mare that’s unbeaten in six hurdles starts, and her defeat of Joyeuse and Take No Chances last time out is solid form, but the market has her well found. In some ways, I’d not be shocked if she went off favourite, given her form looks more solid than Kopek De Mee’s, but at the time of writing Gordon Elliott is not having the best of Festival weeks, with too many of his fading out of contention for comfort. That may change on Thursday or earlier on Friday but she only makes limited appeal.
At 33-1 I’ll also have a little bit on Electric Mason as the back-up selection. A good looker, he’s twice come up against The New Lion, beaten 4½ lengths on the first occasion and then nine lengths by him in the Challow. Needless to say, that form looks all the better after The New Lion’s win in the Turners earlier in the week, and a mark of 132 seems more than fair. The ground should suit and quotes of 25-1 and bigger are worth a fiver of your cash.
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Recent Winners
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Pace Map
Another big field and some relatively inexperienced riders, so this ought to be quickly run from the start. It's been won by some really classy future chasers in the pase - see the list above - and it will be fascinating to see which Grade 1 horse(s) reveal themselves here.
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Selection
Suggestion: Back No Ordinary Joe at 12/1 and/or Electric Mason at 33/1.
*
And that's a wrap for Cheltenham Festival 2025. The first half of the week was very tough if you had nice prices on the horses sent off odds on; but plenty of handicap fancies prevailed. Regardless of how you're going to this point, 'Give Back Friday' is an opportunity for both punter and bookie to return something to the other side - let's hope it's us players who are on top.
Before closing, a MASSIVE thank you to the brilliant panel of experts who have shared their thoughts here this week. All of Rory Delargy, David Massey, Dave Renham, Matt Tombs and Paul Jones are absolute judges and, while four races each is the most minute microcosm on which to judge them, it's enough to see some of their workings out and the way the construct their cases (and entertainingly write them). I've enjoyed editing and publishing them enormously, and I hope you've enjoyed reading.
Be lucky.
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/galopindeschamps_langerdan_cheltenhamMartinPipe2021.jpg319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-13 09:04:322025-03-13 09:32:21Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day Four Preview, Tips
Day Three, Thursday, and it's a case of New Courses for Old as we 'change ends' for the second half. Fresh ground, then, probably nicely watered so no excuses - apart from the obvious (picking the wrong horse).
1.20 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2, 2m 1f)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno.
Full disclosure: this race is not my favourite. It's not because I haven't had a degree of success in finding the winner during its short history (new race in 2016) nor that I don't see its place at the Festival. On the contrary, I've backed a couple of good winners, and fully recognise the importance of such races for the mares' programme - something that is far more relevant to the breeding industry than the glut of Graded races for geldings which blighted the winter until this season. Hats off to the BHA for sorting that. That was an unexpected ranty sidebar to kick things off...
No, the reason I've not yet warmed to the Dawn Run is that it's been a bit second division more often than not. Perhaps this will be the year that ignites my attraction to it - finding the winner will help no end in that regard, so let's crack on.
You'll note a couple of things from the list of winners below. Firstly, Willie won the first five renewals of the race; and secondly, neither he nor any other Irish trainer has won in the past three renewals. It's a small sample size but offes hope to the domestics.
Sixandahalf has been almost a default ante post favourite, her one hurdles spin resulting in a twelve length beating of the expensive point recruit Qualimita. The problem with that is Qualimita appears not to be very good: she's been beaten twice since most recently at odds on. Still, Sixandahalf was also a very good bumper winner and switched codes to run third in the ultra-valuable Irish Cesarewitch (worth £223,000 and change more to the winner than the Dawn Run - sheesh).
She's inexperienced over hurdles, with just that one run, and might want a little further than this marginally extended two miles.
Maughreen is another one of dem Willie talking horses. She too has had just one try over hurdles, and she's less experienced generally than Sixandahalf, having only raced once prior - winning a bumper easily. So she's two from two and unextended each time. While a couple of winners have emerged from that hurdle score, one of them was subsequently beaten 20 lengths in a handicap hurdle off a lowly 102; she was 15 lengths behind Maughreen so make of it what you will.
Aurora Vega, thought to be on the sick list, is declared. There have been a few on the preview circuit keen to know her form but she's won six of her nine starts and all three of her completed hurdles starts, including when making all in a Grade 3 Mares' Hurdle last time. She's likely to be close to the pace which, in a big field, might not be optimal but her experience and ability to 'get it done' are assets that many of her rivals cannot match.
Galileo Dame, a four-year-old, has been declared here rather than in the Triumph and that looks a smart call. Although she faces elder rivals there's nothing of the proven ability of East India Dock and perhaps nothing of the rumoured ability of Lulamba in this field. Moreover, she receives a chunky 10lb weight allowance from the older mares. Trained by Joseph O'Brien, no stranger to Festival success, she has more experience than most of her rivals having finished second in the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at the DRF as well as in her debut hurdle race; additionally, she ran eight times on the flat.
As a flat filly, she won a Leopardstown maiden (10f, heavy) before a tilt at the Irish Oaks where she was unplaced. Sights lowered to Listed class, she bagged silver in her final two goes on the level, eventually rated high-90's. If there's a niggle it might be that she tends to find one too good but she looks to be a serious player in this.
What is certain is that other mares have better form in the book for all that this pair can improve, perhaps significantly, from their current demonstrated levels. Recent winners have had more experience, and that is an asset for Karoline Banbou, a multiple podium finisher in French Graded AQPS races before getting off the mark over timber at the deuxieme time of asking in Ireland. That form is again open to question but she's shown up well in big fields and is a litte more streetwise than those at the top of the market.
Best of the home team in their quest for an unbroken four-timer in the Dawn Run is Jubilee Alpha, trained by Paul Nicholls - remember him? This six-year-old mare was second in the G2 Nickel Coin Mares' Bumper at Aintree, a race always loaded with talent, last spring. She's advertised that form herself in winning a Listed race at Taunton and a valuable Class 2 conditions event at Windsor. Taunton was the launchpad for Golden Ace's success in this race last year and we all know how much Nicholls would love winning this. He's got a bit of a chance with this mare.
Ben Pauling has an interesting one in Diva Luna. She was the mare to beat Jubilee Alpha in the Nickel Coin, and has since run 212 over hurdles. While I'm confident she'll step forward for her defeat at Sandown last time (at odds of 2/9 - ouch), the fact that the 2's were at two miles while the win was over two and a half, allied to her penchant for pacemaking, leaves her vulnerable to a finisher at this trip. There is a fair bit of rival front end speed, on paper at least, so that's another niggle regarding her case. I suspect she'll be a different proposition entirely when stepped back up in trip.
Nicholls has a second card to play in the shape of Just A Rose, an expensive recruit after winning a maiden point, but one who kept the dream alive for owners including the Brooks' (remember Saint Calvados and co?) when bolting up by 26 lengths in a Taunton maiden in mid-January. That's obviously a far cry from this test, but if you're considering backing Maughreen or Sixandahalf, the former especially, you'd get a squarer price on Just A Rose off a mirror image of a form case.
We all know to respect anything Henry de Bromhead saddles at the Cheltenham Festival and, as such, Air Of Entitlement is worthy of at least a second glance. True, she's only won a run of the mill bumper and an equally unremarkable maiden hurdle, well enough beaten in a Punchestown Festival bumper in between, so it's a leap of faith based on connections required. I can't immediately see it and will reluctantly allow her to beat me.
If this was two and a half miles, I'd be quite interested in the chance of Hollygrove Cha Cha, a winning machine for Hot To Trot Jumping. But it's not. At two miles, she's vulnerable as she showed with her only career defeat in six races behind Jubilee Alpha. Before and since then she's run thrice over hurdles at around two and a half miles and won each time, including in the Grade 2 Jane Seymour at Sandown last time. She's a lovely mare and one to follow, but this will probably be too sharp for her unless they go very hard early (which, in such a big field, they might).
Plenty of other unexposed ones, including Willie's Venusienne. She's too inexperienced to interest me, however.
Mares' Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners
Mares' Novices' Hurdle Pace Map
With so many runners, this is bound to be run at a right good lick.
Mares' Novices' Hurdle Selection
An open race - far more so than the ante post betting suggested - and one where I want to take on Maughreen and Sixandahalf. Both have their chance but so do many others. At the prices, then, I'm keen on Galileo Dame with her experience and hefty weight pull; and will try a small each way on Jubilee Alpha to see Paul Nicholls do a Keegan.
Suggestion: Back 5/1 Galileo Dame to win and/or 9/1 Jubilee Alpha each way.
Matt's Tix Pix: I'm taking a fair few here across A and B - could be the placepot dividend maker
2.00 Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase (Handicap, 2m 4f)
Previewed by Matt Tombs.
This race is back after a four year hiatus and returns as the 2005-10 version, run on the New Course as a 20lb limited handicap with no ratings ceiling.
In practice, the ratings ceiling (140 between 2011 and 2017, 145 between 2018 and 2020) didn’t make that much difference. In the six renewals with no ratings ceiling no horse ran off higher than 148. The last ten renewals had a weight spread of between 4lb and 10lb so whether it is nominally a limited or full handicap has had little impact. It looks like being a different renewal this year with Springwell Bay running off 154 and a bigger weight spread below him.
This has also been a race where smaller yards have fared well. Willie Mullins has never won any handicap chase at the Festival, and neither Gordon Elliott nor Dan Skelton has won this race. Nicky Henderson, Henry de Bromhead and Paul Nicholls have won it once each. Six of the 16 winners were giving their trainers a first Festival winner so don’t be put off if a horse you fancy comes from a smaller yard.
A bit like the Plate, this has been a race for intermediate trip specialists: 12 of the 16 winners, including nine of the last ten, had shown their best chase form (judged by Racing Post Ratings) at intermediate trips.
Perhaps the most important trend is how predictable a race it has been. Lots of punters saw a 20-runner handicap chase for novices (as mentioned, the maximum field has been increased to 22) and thought it would be a bit of a lottery. In fact it’s been the most predictable handicap of the meeting over conventional obstacles. 13 of the 16 winners have come from the first five in the SP market, ten of which came from the first three in the betting. Don’t be put off taking a single figure price despite the big field.
A bit like the Fred Winter this has a trial that has proved a really strong guide – the 2m4½f novice handicap chase on Trials Day at Cheltenham in late-January. Four of the last eight winners contested it finishing 7312. It seemed a strong renewal of that novice handicap this year, with Whistle Stop Tour looking a leading contender for the Ultima and Resplendent Grey having decent claims in the National Hunt Chase. Moon D'Orange won on Trials Day despite a howler at the last and, despite a 6lb rise, he looks a player here.
Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase Pace Map
Another big field, and likely plenty of pace on once more.
Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase Selection
Suggestion: Try Moon D'Orange at 14/1.
Matt's Tix Pix: Two or three A's and hope to be lucky
A quick plug before I start this race as in Gary Wiltshire’s new book Fifty Years In The Betting Jungle that I co-wrote and published by Weatherbys, one of his many tales relates to the Pertemps from way back in 1983 when it was then the Coral Golden Hurdle, and won by Forgive ‘n Forget hosed up with Barney Curley’s fingerprints all over it. Plug over. [Book available here - Ed.]
After the Leopardstown qualifier that featured six of the last nine winners was run, I went for lightning to strike twice in backing FEET OF A DANCER at 16/1 each-way (four places at the time). She finished third there as did another Paul Nolan-trained mare in Mrs Milner which won the Final having also placed in the same qualifier. They ran almost identical races in that they travelled strongly and took it up only to be run out of it on the run-in. My concern is the drying ground as she likes cut but the New Course will have been watered for Day 1 of the two days they race on it if necessary.
Henderson and McManus have turned to first-time cheekpieces for the favourite, Jeriko Du Reponet, who was a running-on third in his qualifier. I don’t know, I just think there’s ‘something of the night’ about him and his stamina has to be taken on trust.
Even though he has won a qualifier, which is usually a no-no for the Final given that only two of the last 29 winners have done so, I prefer the Leopardstown winner Win Some Lose Some of the McManus pair. JP has won the Final four times before and Padraig Roche’s charge looks firmly on the up.
That 'winners of qualifiers' negative stat should come under pressure as (a) more of them should turn up as the Pertemps is now a ‘win-and-you’re in’ race and (b) since two years ago only the first four can qualify from a qualifying race (reduced from six and having previously been eight) so no more fifth-and-sixth-placed finishers squeaking in. Actually, they didn’t have a good record in the Final anyway as it was horses that finished second, third and fourth in qualifiers that had been winning the vast majority of finals.
Until winners of qualifiers start winning the Final though, I will continue to look elsewhere so won’t be siding with Will The Wise (won the last qualifier at Naas in such gruelling ground they couldn’t finish the card so can he recover in time?), Catch Him Derry (wants it soft according to Dan Skelton) or Henri The Second (same reason). Other winners of qualifiers are Harbour Lake, Super Survivor, One Big Bang and J’Ai Froid.
Gordon Elliott has a fabulous record in the Final but both of his qualifiers, Patter Merchant and Lucky Lyreen, also ran in those atrocious conditions at Naas just 18 days ago.
Karl Des Tourelles was second in the Punchestown qualifier in November but only two five-year-olds have won since the race was first run in 1974.
D ART D ART’s second in the Carlisle qualifier catches the eye as he went from held up to leading at the last and may well have won but for edging left on the run-in; back in third was Gwennie May Boy who has franked the form since when comfortably winning the Rendlesham. I like a hold-up horse for the Pertemps and prior to that he came from the rear again to finish an eye-catching third of 23 at Navan over 2m6f having previously won over 2m4f so the gradual steps up in trip are also proving beneficial to him.
Trained by Tommy Cooper, no stranger to Festival success having won the Champion Bumper with Total Enjoyment, looking at the race fresh I’ll take an each-way chance at the general 11/1 to six places that D Art D Art can be his second Cheltenham winner some 21 years later.
Onto the Brits and the Hendo pair of Doddiethegreat and Shanagh Bob have claims. I sensed at the media day I attended at Seven Barrows that he was quite sweet on Doddiethegreat running well having outrun big odds to qualify recently at Haydock; first-time cheekpieces are applied. They thought they had already qualified Shanagh Bob until a rule change was tweaked so had to get him out once more than they wanted to.
Pertemps Final Recent Winners
Pertemps Final Pace Map
There's no shortage of runners on this card, but not a huge amount of signed on trailblazers here. Could be run at only an even gallop.
Pertemps Final Selection
Suggestion: Try D Art D Art each way at around 11/1 with all the extra places.
A race much maligned but one I personally love, and which has a habit of throwing up tremendous finishes. Who can forget Bryony's brilliantly bonkers post-race debrief after the wonderful Frodon took her all the way from the front in 2019?
This year's field has a ton of class - well, maybe back class - and most of them are in the right race for all that pundits aplenty will bleat that they should have gone short (Champion Chase) or long (Gold Cup). The fact is there's a vast tract of land between two miles and more than three and a quarter, and this is an eminently sensible test for intermediate stayers. That's my counter argument at least.
The favourite this year, and short, is Fact To File. A three time Grade 1 winner, twice as a novice and then first time up this season in the 2m4f John Durkan, he was widely expected to serve it up to Galopin Des Champs in the Gold Cup. But having been beaten by that one twice on quicker ground over three miles since, he's swerving a third beating in the Blue Riband in favour of theoretically easier pickings. He's not far off even money for this and at such a skinny quote one has to find a reason to oppose. Without looking too hard, I've unearthed two.
First, all his winning form is on soft ground and he was beaten the last twice on good to yielding and yielding; and second, isn't this trip a bit on the short side if it's not deep ground? In truth, I don't know, and it will shock literally nobody if he wins, even wins well. But those questions are enough to look for a bit of potential value elsewhere.
French raider Il Est Francais heads here from his choice of the three Championship chases, and I feel that's probably right after he was gunned down late by Banbridge in the King George at Christmas. Most of his French form is very smart, as are his two Kempton spins (he blitzed his field in the Kauto Star 15 months ago), but he too is a short price and has thrown a couple of outright clunkers in his last four races. Candidly, he has the profile of a 'bleeder': one who, under the pressure of a race can burst a blood vessel.
Il Est Francais is likely to try to make all, tactics adopted successfully by not just the aforementioned Frodon but also Allaho twice and, a little further back, Uxizandre and Cue Card. But he should expect contention for the lead, from one or more of Heart Wood, Jungle Boogie and Hang In There. If he does get an 'easy', he's a danger no doubt.
Last year's winner, Protektorat, returns to defend his crown and he comes here off a pretty good season so far including a win in a valuable conditions race at Windsor's Winter Millions fixture in late January. My feeling is that he might just prefer a softer surface; but if he handles the expected quicker turf he's an obvious player again albeit that no horse older than nine has won this since Albertas Run doubled up in 2011.
The 2023 winner, Envoi Allen, also tries again. He was second to Protektorat last year as a ten-year-old and, well into the veteran stage now, looks an unlikely - if hugely popular - winner to my eye.
Jungle Boogie is also 11, as is Hang In There. Neither has achieved as much as age mate Envoi Allen, though JB has been lightly raced, and as such they cannot be seriously fancied.
At the other end of the age spectrum, Djelo may have more to offer than his already progressive profile. Last seen winning the G2 Denman Chase over 2m7f, the worry is that, like Fact To File, he maybe needs further and/or softer. Unlike FTF, Djelo is an each way price. His form ties in with Protektorat, but he's two and a half times that one's price as well.
Master Chewy is a two miler stepping up in trip. A good winner of the Game Spirit (G2) at Newbury last time, he might have been better off going to the Queen Mother, his two races at this distance yielding a brace of eighth placed finishes, granted over hurdles.
Another young buck, Heart Wood, rounds out the nine horse field. A Listed Hurdle winner in France before transferring to Henry de Bromhead, he went straight over fences in Ireland winning at the fourth time of asking in a valuable Leopardstown handicap before a good third in the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices' Chase at Aintree. This season, he bashed Corbetts Cross first time out (form not to take literally), was a neck second to the decent Croke Park in the Drinmore Novices' Chase before losing his novice status and running a creditable fourth to Galopin Des Champs in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown at Christmas. Henry can be expected to have improved him in the interim and I like his quietly ascendant profile, form on all surfaces, and proven ability at this distance. He's got a little bit to find on ratings but, as the joint youngest in the field, he's more entitled than most to do so.
Ryanair Chase Recent Winners
Ryanair Chase Pace Map
The French raider is very likely to take them along and he probably doesn't want too much rope. Unless you've backed him, of course.
Ryanair Chase Selection
A race in which Fact To File makes the price for anything else you might like. Of course, he might just go and win but the race doesn't look a perfect profile fit for his skillset and so an each way alternative is sought. Il Est Francais is not an each way price and is a bit of a binary sort these days in any case. The two I like in that win and place context are Djelo and Heart Wood. The former has a better level of proven ability but might want a bit further/softer, the latter has race conditions in his favour but needs to improve - I think he maybe can.
Suggestion: Back one or both of 16/1 Heart Wood and/or 12/1 Djelo, each way a pleasure.
Matt's Tix Pix: A couple on A including Fact To File, and some B's including unnamed favourite. I want to get FTF beat but not sure I can get him off the ticket!
Teahupoo is the market leader again for the Stayers’ having won last year and, as then, he arrives after just one prep run in the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse in December. He was beaten by Lossiemouth this time although Gordon Elliott was more than happy with that run and has set him aside since. He looks at his best when the mud is flying, with form figures on soft or heavy reading 111111111 as opposed to 21963412 on good or good to soft ground. Freshness is also clearly important, with his record off a break of 50+ days reading 111111112, and off shorter breaks 119634.
This year, the freshness box is ticked but Teahupoo will need more rain to get his desired ground, seemingly unlikely as I pen these words. It is also intriguing that Elliott does not rely on Teahupoo alone, but also has the switched Pertemps fancy The Wallpark in this race. That gelding ran well in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot but needs to improve again to win at the top level.
Home By The Lee is the main danger on form, having beaten Bob Olinger in both the Lismullen Hurdle and the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown, and he’s reported to be a different horse this season by connections. He would indeed need to do something different to win this race at the fourth attempt having been no closer than third previously. That is possible, but to be honest, I don’t think his form this season is any better than it was 12 months ago for all he may be transformed on the home gallops.
Bob Olinger is held on this season’s form and looks a weak finisher at this trip, but it should be pointed out that he has a great Cheltenham record, winning the Baring Bingham and the Turners (Golden Miller) in March before landing last year’s Relkeel. That record flatters him a touch as he would have been beaten readily by Galopin des Champs on the second occasion but for that horse tumbling at the last fence. The anticipated ground will help Bob Olinger in terms of seeing the race out, but he tends to look awkward under pressure these days and isn’t convincing enough to draw me in.
Third to Home By The Lee at Leopardstown was the relative novice Rocky’s Pride, who improved on that when winning the Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran next time. Declan Queally’s charge would be a big Stayers' stat buster as he bids to become the first five-year-old to win this contest in the modern era (*dons anorak* The Spa Hurdle, which was the equivalent contest at the post-war Cheltenham, was won by five-year-old Whim in 1951, but the race that year took place in late April, and the weights ranged from 11-12 to 10-4, suggesting that comparisons are pointless).
If there is a genuine staying star of the future in the field, it’s him, and the youngster won the Galmoy while still looking a work in progress. Realistically, he probably needs another year to reach maturity as a stayer, but I think there is a huge amount of talent there and I don’t want to pass him over without mention.
LUCKY PLACE isn’t a certain stayer, but last year’s Coral Cup fourth has improved again this term, winning the Ascot Hurdle and the Relkeel, and while it’s probably a little ingenuous to point out that he had the current Champion Hurdle winner behind on both those occasions, it does bear mentioning that he was giving weight to subsequent Cleeve Hurdle winner Gowel Road on the latter occasion. He needed every yard in the Relkeel and looks to my eye like he will stay three miles - on good ground at least - and he’s the percentage call, with a win bet making more appeal than backing him each-way given that slight query about the trip
Stayers' Hurdle Recent Winners
Stayers' Hurdle Pace Map
Gowel Road is the probable pace maker and he does love it at Cheltenham. Not many others tend to go forward but perhaps Home By The Less will be thereabouts.
It should be noted that it was a Class 1 Grade 3 contest from 2004 to 2022 but since 2023 it has become just a Class 1 race.
This is not the strongest trends race of the week but here are the main stats based on the past 25 years. In terms of the betting market, winners have been well spread across different prices. Four of the last six have been 9/1 or less, but overall, only seven out of the 25 winners were single figure prices. Nine winners were 20/1 or bigger with a further 25 placed so you cannot rule out many runners based on price.
In terms of weight carried there were no wins for the two highest weighted runners but overall there has been an even distribution of winners and placed runners across the weights. Likewise, when looking at the age of the horses there is no clear pattern. Horses aged 9 or older have been competitive and arguably have offered better long-term value than their younger counterparts. Having said that, beware of horses that have raced a lot over fences: those with 17 or more career starts over fences prior to their Plate spin have won just once from 116 runners.
Venetia Williams has had three winners and six placed from 31 but no win since 2013 (she did saddle the second in 2016 at 33/1). She runs Gemirande and an interesting outsider in Demnat this year. Irish runners have won five of the last nine renewals and are definitely targeting this race more than in the early 2000s.
Last time out winners have done well, claiming ten of the 25 renewals in my trends sample from 99 runners with 28% placing. 22 of the last 25 finished in the first seven last time out. Horses that won at least once in their last three starts have been three times more likely to win and twice as likely to place as horses who have drawn a blank in those three runs.
The first two horses to discuss are two that don’t stand out from a trends perspective. Ginnys Destiny did very little wrong last season including three wins and a second at Cheltenham. This season he has disappointed three times when prominent in the betting on all three occasions. What those runs have done is lower his handicap mark to 149, 6lb below where it was at the start of the season. Paul Nicholls has been talking him up and if he's anywhere near his best he comes into the equation.
The Companysergeant is interesting for two reasons. Firstly, he has recently moved to the Gavin Cromwell yard and in his only race for them finished a close up third over hurdles. After three decent runs in the summer of 2024 his form that autumn was poor, which may have prompted the stable switch. Secondly, I keep beeing drawn back to his six-length fourth to Spillane’s Tower in the Grade 1 WillowWarm Gold Cup at the end of March last year. If he can match that form he has a very solid chance.
Jagwar is the clear favourite at the time of writing. He has come here rather than the Jack Richards Novices’ handicap earlier on the card so connections clearly think he can beat more seasoned rivals. He was a winner at Cheltenham last time in what looked a hot handicap so that is a positive trends wise. Although he has gone up 7lb he's clearly still improving. It's only his price that tempers enthusiasm.
An Peann Dearg comes here on a hat-trick and was very impressive last time at Leopardstown. However, he's gone up 12lb for that effort. Like Jagwar he had an entry in the Jack Richards but takes his chance here. Despite the rise in the weights he could still be thereabouts.
Personal Ambition would have won two starts back at Ascot in a Grade 2 chase but for a terrible mistake at the last. As a hurdler, he claimed some big scalps last year including Jango Baie. If you can forgive his latest run he looks a decent price and trainer Ben Pauling, who won the race last year, definitely knows how to train a handicap chaser. Since 2022 Pauling has a strike rate in handicap chases of close to 22% returning 19p in the £ to SP (33p to BSP). Personal Ambition also should be close to the pace which I think is important here based on the overall stats for this course and distance as well as the recent history of this race.
Festival Plate Recent Winners
Festival Plate Pace Map
Yet another big field and another with no out and out speed merchants. Any of Ginny's, Gemirande, Seddon and Personal Ambition might play 'catch me'.
Festival Plate Selection
I backed the The Companysergeant ante post at much bigger odds and the price is a little too tight now for me. I am going for two against the field at bigger odds from either side of the pond.
Suggestion: Back Personal Ambition each way at 20/1 and An Peann Dearg each way at 16/1 (5 places)
5.20 Kim Muir Challenge Cup Chase (Class 2 Handicap, 3m2f)
Previewed by David Massey.
I do love the Kim Muir. The purists will scoff, but you could put seven Kim Muir’s on on the Thursday and I’d be happy as a sandboy. Honest.
And this year I’m fairly confident I’ve got the winner from a choice of two. (Famous last words.)
The Irish, as ever, have a strong hand in this, and Midnight Our Fred has to be on any shortlist you care to draw up for this.
He was entered up in the marathon on Day One, but once confirmations meant it looked very much like he’d get a run in this, there was only ever one way he’d go.
He isn’t a clever selection by any means, but look how many boxes he ticks. Firstly, Cheltenham form: three runs at the track resulting in three second places, including to Mole Court in an amatuers event back here in 2023, narrowly failing to peg back the (then) improving winner on the run-in to the tune of half a length. Off the back of that he ran another solid race at the December meeting and came back again at the April two-dayer to run second to Hymac over 3m4f, the pair nicely clear of anything else. Those three efforts ranged on ground from good to soft, so whatever the elements may throw at him before Thursday, he should handle with ease.
And the good form doesn’t stop there, either; this season, an easy 14-length win at Gowran Park on his seasonal debut was followed up by an excellent second in the big-field Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. See what I mean about him ticking every box? Cheltenham form, big-field form, stays well, goes well for an amateur? What’s not to like, good readers of Geegeez?
I’ll back him up with another of the Irish contingent in Mint Boy, who has definitely been laid out for this after just the four chase starts. Useful over hurdles, he made a solid start to his chasing career when third to Search For Glory and Sa Majeste at Gowran Park, and two quick runs in December (over shorter trips) looked nothing more than a means to an end in getting him a mark. A better effort at Punchestown last month when third to High Class Hero should have teed him up nicely for this, and he remains totally unexposed over fences. This stamina test seems sure to suit, and I can see him taking a big step forward form-wise now.
Finding something among the British contingent that might be able to throw down a challenge isn’t easy. I have a soft spot for Dom Of Mary and put him up for this last year; a couple of mistakes on the way around hardly helped his cause, but he could get no nearer than eighth, and unless there’s an absolute deluge on Wednesday it might well be more of the same.
I suppose the capable but utterly inconsistent Weveallbeencaught is of some interest in new headgear. He looked a happier horse when returned to Nigel Twiston-Davies at Doncaster in January, winning an easy nine lengths, but couldn’t repeat that effort when fifth in the Grimthorpe last time out. On goes some stronger headgear, with the visor replacing cheekpieces, and a tongue tie is also employed, as it was in the Ultima last year (when sixth). Toby McCain-Mitchell is one of the better British riders, in my opinion, and if he’s on a going day, he could give his pilot a decent spin.
Kim Muir Recent Winners
Kim Muir Pace Map
Midnight Our Fred is most likely to set the tempo, though there is a clutch who could challenge early. Should be run at a decent gallop.
Kim Muir Selection
Suggestion: Split stakes between 9/1 Midnight Our Fred and 12/1 Mint Boy.
*
And that's us three-quarters of the way home. Hopefully you've had a couple of good draws already; if not, fear not for Gold Cup day will follow. But let's enjoy Thursday's sport first!
Good luck
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/275616468-scaled.jpg12802560Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-12 12:28:392025-03-12 18:22:20Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day 3 Preview, Trends, Tips
Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips
Day Two. Wednesday. The second half of the first half - or the second quarter if you prefer - and a day when, seemingly, it has rained since time immemorial. After a full soaking in the past two years, it's looking dry if a little cool for Day 2 of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival. There's much to go at so let's crack on - slightly earlier start, don't forget. Over to our team of shrewdies (and me) for their thoughts. Vamanos!
1.20 Turners Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m5f)
Previewed by Rory Delargy.
The Turners - or to save confusion the Baring Bingham - Novices’ Hurdle kicks off Tuesday’s card and looks a fairly straightforward race to analyse from a race shape perspective. I’d imagine one of the Mullins pair Kaid d’Authie and Kappa Jye Pyke will go forward, if not both, and that should ensure that regular front-runner Sixmilebridge doesn’t get an easy lead. Sixmilebridge might be a player if he can get loose in front, having employed those tactics to beat a slightly below-par Potters Charm in the Grade 2 Classic Novices’ Hurdle here on Trials Day.
That wasn’t strictly over course and distance as it took place on the New Course and, while the winner did it well, it’s hard to take a high view of the form unless assuming Potters Charm ran right up to his best, which I don’t think he did, albeit not falling that far short of his previous standard. Given that was Trials Day, it’s interesting to see how winners of that race have got on in the Baring Bingham over the years. Much has been made of the poor record of Challow winners in the race, but you need to go back to Monsignor to find the last horse to win the Classic and the Baring Bingham in the same season. That’s disappointing given the similarity in track and trip, and the horses who have gone on to success at Cheltenham after winning in January were the stayers Bobs Worth and At Fishers Cross, underlining how the New Course tests stamina above tactical speed.
Potters Charm is better judged on his track and trip win in November and his Grade 1 win in the Formby at Aintree in December. Those victories catapulted him to the head of the market for this race, but they do not look as good now as they did at the time, and his defeat of Miami Magic at Aintree compares poorly with Tripoli Flyer’s win over the same horse at Kempton last time. Tripoli Flyer might be a little underrated with neither Musselburgh nor Kempton striking as the ideal track for a horse with plenty of late boot, but the concern with him is that he was reported to have broken a blood vessel despite winning the Dovecote, and that is a no-no here.
The New Lion is the best of the British and just shades favouritism after winning the Challow at Newbury in December. He was visually impressive, enough for J P McManus to open his chequebook, but the form of the Challow is pretty hollow. The runner-up Wendigo is a progressive stayer, but the Newbury race tested speed over stamina for a change, and Wendigo was outpaced before running on late for second. The horses that The New Lion actually bested at Newbury looked promising at the time, but neither Regents Stroll nor Bill Joyce have fulfilled early promise over hurdles and, on paper, the form is not at all strong for a Grade 1 hurdle. I get the impression that The New Lion might have had plenty more in hand, but it’s hard to put a figure on that, and my feeling is that he’s been overrated by the handicappers, public and private.
Dan Skelton knows more about this gelding’s latent ability and seems full of confidence, which makes me wary of taking him on, but his price assumes he is every bit as good as he looked at Newbury and then some, and I couldn’t make him anywhere near as short as the market does.
Final Demand was all the rage after beating Wingmen easily over 2¾m at the DRF but there was talk of him switching to the Albert Bartlett, and he drifted as a result. That came to nothing, and he should have regained favouritism when declared for this, but the doubts seem to have persisted. This race has gone to Champion Hurdle prospects in the past (Istabraq, Hardy Eustace, Faugheen) and if there is a Champion Hurdler in this field then it isn't Final Demand, who looks as if he would gallop all day. I suspect this is why he’s deemed opposable, as he might be vulnerable in a tactical race, and that should be taken on board. On the other hand, the race has also been won by plenty of stayers down the years and if Paul Townend wants to set an end-to-end gallop, then Final Demand looks a willing partner. I think he’s a much better option than The New Lion and he deserves to be favourite.
Given what I’ve said above, I would not put anyone off Final Demand if getting 2/1 or bigger, but in acknowledging that his 12-length defeat of Wingmen at Leopardstown is the best form in the race, I must also point out that THE YELLOW CLAY beat Wingmen by 11 lengths and Jasmin de Vaux by 22 when winning the Grade 1 Lawlor’s Of Naas at – well, you know where it’s at – in January. Given Wingmen and Jasmin de Vaux finished third and fourth at Naas and then finished second and fourth at Leopardstown, it could be argued that they are excellent yardsticks for the novice form, and The Yellow Clay has a very similar chance to Final Demand on a line through the pair of them.
Much has been made of the fact that The Lawlor’s was run on heavy ground as if that was a big advantage to The Yellow Clay, but I thought he hated the ground (I think they all hated the ground, in truth) and that his inherent class saw him home. He certainly doesn’t need heavy, running below form in the Champion Bumper last year, albeit with credit, before turning the tables on Romeo Coolio at Punchestown in the Grade 1 bumper there, where he also had William Munny and Jasmin de Vaux behind. His first two hurdles wins also came on yielding ground, and he beat Fleur In The Park much more easily in the Monksfield than he did in the Navan Novice Hurdle on softer ground in December. Gordon Elliott seemed to me to have a twinkle in his eye when he says, “I’m not sure he’s as slow as people think” and he looks the standout value in the contest.
Turners Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners
Turners Novices' Hurdle Pace Map
Lots of paper pace, and that man Mullins has the cards in terms of dictating the tempo. Should be truly run.
Turners Novices' Hurdle Selection
Suggestion: Back The Yellow Clay each-way at 13/2.
This race has had an average field size of 11 runners but, as with last year when six went to post, we have a shorter field of just seven here. I was hoping for the 'dead eight' which as a punter clearly gives more options. Let's first look at past trends in this race going back 25 years.
Irish bred runners have won 19 of the 25 races from 172 runners which equates to 11% and have had just under 30% hit the frame; other countries combined (GB/FR etc) are 6 wins from 103 (5.8%) with 21% placed.
Age wise, 7yos have dominated with 20 wins from the last 25. Yes, they have had more than half of the total runners, 52% to be precise, but from that 52% they have won 80% of the races (31.3% placed). 6yos have just one win from 48 but have a decent placed record and they have just one qualifier this year in Quai De Bourbon. 8yos are three from 53 (5.7%) but with only 17% hitting the frame.
Looking at past market factors, between 1999 and 2014 there were seven double figure priced winners, but none since. There have been nine winning favourites (six in last 10 years) and 10 of the last 11 renewals have gone to one of the front three in the market.
Previous winning course form has been a plus with past Cheltenham winners 1.8 times more likely to win than those that have not. Previous Festival winners have done very well from a small band of runners. Of the 20 prior Cheltenham Festival winners five won (25%) and 12 in total won or placed (60%). Backing all 20 would have yielded a 61% ROI to BSP.
23 of the 25 winners won or came second LTO. Horses that finished third or worse are just two from 87 (2.3%).
All 25 winners raced between three and 11 weeks previously. Fifty horses have either run with a shorter or longer break than that and all of them lost, with only 10% of them managing a place.
Willie Mullins has saddled the winner five times, and he has the top two in the betting (and four of the seven runners in total). The favourite, Ballyburn, ticks many of the trends boxes. He won the Turners Novices’ hurdle at an absolute canter at the Festival last year; he won last time out; and he is eight from ten in his career, and two from three over fences. His loss over fences came at Kempton in December when beaten a speedier Sir Gino over two miles. This race is at three miles which is uncharted territory for him, but with the ground as it is, the consensus is he has every chance of staying. He is well clear on Racing Post Ratings and Topspeed and he looks a solid favourite, albeit at a short price.
Second favourite Dancing City has been ultra consistent over both hurdles and fences. From a trends perspective, however, he has a few negatives to overcome. He is an 8yo, is French bred, and has yet to win at Cheltenham. That said, and to be fair, he has only raced here once when third in last year’s Albert Bartlett. A positive is that we know he gets the trip.
Third in the market is Better Days Ahead, an interesting contender from the Gordon Elliott yard. He won at the festival last year in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle (positive trend) and is two from three this year with his sole defeat being by a head two starts back at Leopardstown. He has only raced in very small fields over fences, and he will get that again here. A winner at the distance, there are no stamina concerns.
Gorgeous Tom has a few trends to overcome including finishing only fourth last time in the Grade 1 Drinmore at Fairyhouse (2m4f), but he was rattling home that day and would have won in a few more strides. He has to prove himself over the extra distance and, if he does, he could be seriously overpriced around 12/1. If there had been eight runners, he would have been my each way pick along with my win selection below.
Brown Advisory Chase Recent Winners
Brown Advisory Chase Pace Map
Ballyburn may make his own running but will perhaps more likely sit behind a stablemate (Lecky or Quai).
Brown Advisory Chase Selection
Ballyburn is a short price and generally I’m not a short odds player. However, I think he is a 10/11 maybe even 5/6 chance, and he is still odds against in a few places which I think represents value.
Suggestion: Back Ballyburn at odds against.
Matt's Tix Pix: Ballyburn on A, and a couple of alternates on B
The Coral Cup is one of my favourite races of the week to tackle, as there are some trends that can help us try and find the winner, but equally you’ve a chance of hitting something at a big ol’ price. Four of the last seven winners have gone off 20/1 or bigger, with 33/1 Heaven Help Us and 50/1 Commander Of Fleet among them, so this is a race that can throw up proper shocks.
It used to be the case that backing those towards the top end of the handicap lost money on a regular basis, but since the handicaps became more compressed that is no longer the case. The first five home last year all carried 11st or more, and the angle of a class dropper, despite having to carry a big weight, is one that should not be overlooked.
Ballyadam is a perfect case in point. He’s a Festival regular, having finished fifth in the 2023 County Hurdle (under 11-7) and then second to the, ahem, rejuvenated Langer Dan in this under the welter burden of twelve stone last year. He often mixes it at levels with the best of them, but can clearly operate when asked to give weight away to inferior horses despite age catching up with him. He’s lightly raced for a ten-year-old, and looks sure to give another good account of himself. A drop of rain Wednesday morning (some is forecast) would help his cause, too.
Just underneath Ballyadam on the racecard is Eagle Fang, and I’ve long thought he could be the type to go well in a race such as this. He was one of the picks of the paddock for the Fred Winter last year but blew out, Philip Enright going round the inside on heavy ground probably not helping his cause. I made him one to follow all the same and it didn’t take long for that faith to be repaid, when he came good at a big price at Punchestown in May.
He lost nothing in defeat to Home By The Lee in Grade 2 company at Navan in November and, off the back of that, connections tried their luck in the Grade 1 Long Walk at Ascot. Having looked like he might get involved for the places at one point his stamina rather gave way, and the combination of that and Grade 1 company ultimately proved too much. Nevertheless, he was only beaten nine lengths and on the figures had taken another step forward. It’s worth bearing in mind Oakley Brown was unable to claim his 5lb allowance there, which he will be able to do here, and having had a bit of a break since Ascot is no bad thing either. The worry is that a mark of 147 looks a touch too high so, for all I think he’ll run well, others make a shade more appeal.
At the front end of the market you simply cannot ignore Impose Toi, given Nicky Henderson’s record in the race (four winners) and owner JP McManus, notwithstanding that he throws plenty of darts at this, has had the winner three times and numerous others placed in the race. Impose Toi dotted up here (over two miles) a couple of seasons ago and at that stage all sorts of fancy entries were bandied about. He ran to a very similar level in two subsequent starts in hot handicaps. We’ve only seen him the once this year, when winning with something to spare over 2m4½f at Newbury, and this strong-travelling sort looks just the type to go well here. Cheekpieces go on, which I think is neither here nor there (it isn’t the negative it used to be perceived as in this race) and he has to go well, I feel.
And where is the daft each-way fiver at a silly price going? Look no further than Lossiemouth (not that one, the other one), a former Grade 2 winner for Tom Lacey who has come back from a long absence this season to run perfectly well for Polly Gundry in three competitive handicap hurdles, all around three miles. Now, I’m not totally convinced he stays that far, and this drop back in trip could be just what the doctor ordered. He shapes as if he retains most of his ability and a mark of 133 is fair and reflects where we are with him at present. He’ll be ignored in the market, but it would be no surprise to me if he hit the frame here.
Coral Cup Recent Winners
Coral Cup Pace Map
Loads of pace, headed by Maxxum and 'the other' Lossiemouth. Cards played late may be the answer tactically.
Coral Cup Selection
Impose Toi looks like he ought to go close and, at monster prices, 'the other' Lossiemouthcould give a run for each way money. Bag the extra places where you can.
Suggestion: Back Impose Toi to win at 9/1, and/or Lossiemouth each way at 40/1 or bigger.
3.20 Glenfarclas Chase (Cross Country, Class 2, 3m6f)
Previewed by Matt Tombs.
The Cross Country reverts to being a handicap after eight renewals as a level-weights race, albeit it is now a 20lb limited handicap rather than the full 26lb.
The key to betting on the Cross Country is understanding the nature of the course. At Punchestown and Pardubice the cross-country tracks pre-date the conventional tracks but at Cheltenham it had to be shoehorned into the middle of the existing conventional courses in the 1990s.
The consequence is that the Cheltenham cross-country course is extremely tight and sharp. There are very few opportunities to gallop until the business end. As such, the skillset needed is to be able to negotiate the variety of obstacles, keeping on an even keel and then an ability to quicken when the sprint starts.
In consequence, they go slowly for much of the race and so it’s much easier for the classy horses to give the weight away. Three of the 11 renewals as a 26lb handicap were won by the top-weight – and that was when the race was contested by lower quality horses than it is today.
As a level-weights race it was dominated in recent years by ex-Grade 1 horses: if they took to the idiosyncratic test they had a huge advantage, outclassing the handicappers they were up against.
In the last five renewals if you’d applied a simple 1lb for 1 length approach, the winner would have won even if it had been a 20lb handicap. Given that it’s easier to give the weight away going so slowly, I think the top-weights are at an even bigger advantage than that ‘standard’ method suggests.
The question all season was who was going to realise that and continue to target their ex-Grade 1 horses at the race - and who was going to think that because it was a handicap they wouldn’t win and so wouldn’t run their ex-Grade 1 horses.
Gordon Elliott seems to have worked this out and, ground permitting, was always aiming Galvin at the race. He has won six of the last seven renewals and, whilst the fact it’s a handicap makes it harder for him, he is still the trainer to focus on. Gordon is 6/23 +3pt (15% ROI) so far. 13 of those 23 runners finished in the first three.
Even when it was a 26lb handicap the front of the market dominated – 8 of the 11 renewals were won by one of the first three in the market. Seven of the eight level-weights renewals did, too, and with much classier types in this than the old 2005-2015 handicap I’m expecting the front of the market to continue to dominate.
The ground was always going to be important. The Cross Country course doesn’t have the artificial drainage that the conventional tracks have but equally it’s harder to water. Cheltenham now can water it but there is only one race on it and they tend to do so sparingly to avoid fast ground rather watering for slow ground. As a result, it tends to ride more naturally. The weather gods have favoured Galvin with the ground due to be predominantly good to soft.
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Recent Winners
*Handicap up to 2015, conditions race 2016-2024, reverted to a handicap in 2025. Abandoned in 2024.
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Pace Map
This will be a jog then sprint affair, so the pace map is very much for information purposes only.
The Champion Chase is the pre-eminent speed test for top class chasers but, this year, it's a race shorn of many of its likelier lads, due to injury, poor form or that pesky Ryanair Chase. One bona fide star that will get the green (and gold) light is Jonbon, whose eleventh hour withdrawal twelve months ago robbed the race - and racing fans - of its main protagonist.
In his absence, Henry de Bromhead swooped to conquer with 17/2 shot Captain Guinness. The Captain defends his crown but has been in far less authoritative form this time around. Still, a glance at the Recent Winners section below attests to the folly of discounting a de Bromhead runner in the QMCC: he also won the race in 2021, 2017 and 2011. Guinness may be on many revellers' minds on Wednesday afternoon, but it's far more likely they're pondering another pint of the black stuff than a punt on a horse whose best run of three this term was a 26 length pasting by Solness.
Henry also runs Quilixios, a slightly bigger price even than Captain Guinness. A confirmed front runner, the former Triumph Hurdle winner is unlikely to have it all his way on the sharp end with, most notably, Solness expected to vie for early primacy. But his run behind Jonbon at Sandown in December's Tingle Creek gives him only a large hill, rather than a mountain, to climb to beat the fav.
We really ought to discuss Jonbon. Trained by Nicky Henderson, who saddled the Champion Chase winner in 1992, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2018 and 2019, a Jonbon victory would make him the outright winningmost trainer in the history of the race; and his lad is a shade of odds on to do it.
On any of a number of runs from this season and last, he is the best horse in the race. His jumping is usually assured, his run style is versatile and he has no ground allergies. So why isn't he shorter in the market? Well, come the hour and he might be; but, to this point, there have been murmurings of a Cheltenham issue as well as the fact that the Champion Chase has been a bridge too far for a plethora of shorties in recent times.
El Fabiolo, at 2/9, was the latest strong favourite to succumb last year, and was preceded by Shishkin (5/6) in 2022, Chacun Pour Soi (8/13) in 2021, Defi Du Seuil (2/5) in 2020, Douvan (2/9) in 2017, Un De Sceaux (4/6) in 2016, Sizing Europe (4/5) in 2012, Master Minded (4/5) in 2010, Well Chief (Evs) in 2007, Moscow Flyer (5/6) in 2004 and Flagship Uberalles (11/10) in 2000. Holy hotpots!
It should be said that 6/5 Energumene, 4/11 and Evs Altior, 1/4 Sprinter Sacre and 4/11 Master Minded all got it done in the same time window and it's well worth noting that three of that quintet were trained by Henderson. Only Shishkin from the 'naughty' list was sent from Seven Barrows.
Jonbon is a bit of a machine. He's won 17 of his 20 races, and been second on the other three occasions. Perhaps he's another to bet with the 'money back as free bet if second' concession with the tote. The three defeats were by a superlative Constitution Hill in an awe-inspiring Supreme in 2022; a rampant El Fabiolo (before that one lost the plot) in the Arkle of 2023; and - the only downright disappointment - in the re-routed Clarence House Chase last year (Ascot was unraceable so the race was staged at Cheltenham - Jonbon was beaten a neck at 1/4).
After a quiet but winning seasonal debut this campaign, the green and gold silks have sauntered to success twice more - both at Grade 1 level - and he just looks a man amongst veterans and juniors.
Energumene commands great respect as a two-time winner of the race, in 2022 and 2023 aged 8 and 9; but he missed the gig last year and is 11 now. True, that didn't stop Moscow Flyer rolling back the years when claiming his second Champion Chase in 2005 but the Flyer entered as the best horse in the race and was returned 6/4 favourite. Energumene is no longer the best in the field. Still, he's an 11-time winner from 14 starts and may have degenerated insufficiently to miss the podium.
A few of the Irish contenders have incestuous form lines. Solness came out on top, ahead of Marine Nationale, Quilixios and Captain Guinness in the Dublin Chase at DRF: having led from early in the race, he established a big advantage which was all but erased by MN approaching the last. But the runner up found less than anticipated while the winner found more than might have been expected. They were clear of the remainder. I do have a suspicion that Quilixios may have been under-cooked and also may have raced on the worst of the ground up the inner, where his rivals pretty much all took the high road close to the outer rail.
Prior to February's Dublin Chase, Solness had also beaten Marine Nationale by a similar margin in the Leopardstown Grade 1 at Christmas. There, Found A Fifty ran no sort of race and was pulled up. However, the last named was reported by the vet to have a dirty nose post-race rendering his effort a 'chuck out'. Earlier in the season, Found A Fifty had beaten Solness in the G2 Fortria Chase and had won over two and a half miles a fortnight prior in another Grade 2, that one on good ground.
Going back a little further, Gordon Elliott's charge got closest to a fully on song Gaelic Warrior in the Arkle at Cheltenham a year ago; so he handles quicker ground, has performed well at the Festival, and has two wins prior to a run that can be discounted from his three 2024/5 spins. He may be over-priced.
Beyond Jonbon, British hopes rest with Libberty Hunter. He was second in the G2 Game Spirit Chase at Newbury last month and has good Cheltenham handicap form on top of the ground. But this is a much bigger ask than handicaps for all that he was third in the Grade 1 Maghull at Aintree last spring.
Champion Chase Recent Winners
Champion Chase Pace Map
Quilixios and Solness, probably the latter, will go forward. Jonbon should sit just off that tempo with the rest expected to be more patiently ridden.
Champion Chase Selection
There is a weighty body of men (and women) who sailed to their wagering end due to the siren calls of short priced Champion Chase jollies, but some people never learn. Jonbon is clear of his field on any critical analysis of the form book and he looks a square enough price at close to even money as I write. That's obviously not a sexy price so each way alternatives are worth considering. I'm apprehensive of the Solness/Marine Nationale collateral, but appreciate I could have that wrong. Still, I don't want to bet something at 5/1 or so against what I think is a very solid favourite. Far better to have a tiny swing, either e/w or without the favourite, on either or both of Found A Fifty and/or Quilixios. Not much damage done if we miss at those sorts of prices.
Suggestion: Back Jonbon with the tote's 'money back as a free bet if second', and consider Found A Fifty or Quilixios in the 'without' and each way markets.
4.40 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3, 2m)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno. A key feature of the Grand Annual is that it is a kinder race for prominent racers, whereas the stiffer New Course was a benefit for hold-up horses. This is evident in the 'Recent Winners' section below where, prior to 2014, hold up horses were the de facto play; but since then, it's been the front half of the field (and a few midfielders) which has held sway. Le Prezien's 2018 score from off the pace is a helpful reminder that nothing is assured when shortlisting, but the balance of favour has very much been to those with more behind than in front through the early fractions.
A glance at the 'Form' column below shows that recent winning form is not a prerequisite, and nor is a recent run. Ratings wise, most winners were between 136 and 147, give or take, and that's an area on which to focus.
Looking for those within the ratings band and who are generally ridden in the front half of the field, I'm left with Unexpected Party, Fringill Dike, The King of Prs, and Traprain Law.
Unexpected Party won the race by daylight last year and is only 6lb higher this time around. He represents the 'Dead-eye Dan' Skelton barn who have been so successful in Cheltenham Festival handicaps in recent years, and may go close again. Expect him to race more prominently than in recent outings: he was near the speed when galloping away from them twelve months ago.
Gavin Cromwell is another handler for whom the handicaps have been a rich source of joy, and he's represented by The King Of Prs (and also My Mate Mozzie and Midnight It Is). The King best fits my tenuous shortlist bill though form of 231 this season has done little to mask his level of ability. He ran in the race last year but couldn't go the early tempo and made mistakes before falling, all of which tempers enthusiasm considerable.
JP McManus likes to have a swing at this. As well as four winners in the past two decades, McManus has owned fully nine runners up (thanks to Paul Ferguson and his Weatherby's Cheltenham Festival Trends Guide for this cracking snippet). The green and gold livery will be singularly sported by So Scottish this season. Second to Stayers' Hurdle-bound The Wallpark in a Listed handicap hurdle on yielding ground at the Galway Festival last summer - two poorer efforts since - he's not run over fences since December 2023, when he fell in the December Gold Cup. He's obviously a strong stayer and connections, including trainer Emmet Mullins, are hugely respected; but this would be a fine training performance were he to win.
Since 2009 there have been nine Grand Annual winners returned 16/1 or bigger, including 66/1, 40/1 and 28/1 twice. In that spirit, I'm returning to my shortlist and Fringill Dike and Traprain Law. Fringill Dike is a good ground specialist, typically races prominently and comes here well rested; true, he may be overly well rested and we have to take fitness on trust. To that end, form off a 100+ day absence over obstacles reads 112 which helps keep the faith. He's won five of his nine chases and he's 66/1 - that makes him worth a very small each way guess.
Traprain Law hails from the Lucinda Russell yard that knows how to win staying handicap chases at the Festival. Whether she can repeat the dose over a 'sprint' trip is a different question, of course, but she may have a better chance than the market implies with this second season chaser. He's a perennial prominent racer and has sometimes appeared to be outpaced in the latter stages of his races; perhaps this expected much faster tempo will run the finish out of his rivals?
Since 2014, the last time out finishing position of Grand Annual winners, as a form string, reads 94P08212309. That may (or may not) be another nod to So Scottish, whose claims are obviously not obvious, if you see what I mean.
Grand Annual Recent Winners
Grand Annual Pace Map
Licketty split, no doubt. Expected to favour those in the first half to two-thirds of the field over the very late runners. Unless they go an absolute million. Which they might.
Grand Annual Selection
The 2025 Grand Annual is, as always, a very difficult puzzle to solve. In that spirit, I'll try one from the top and two massive Hail Mary's. So Scottish is as much about his connections as his recent form; but delving further back would make him attractively handicapped in his own right. If we're to have another 'skinner winner' it might be one of Traprain Lawor Fringill Dike, both of which seem well enough suited to the test with the important proviso that they might not be nearly good enough! They're worth 50p e/w to find out, though.
Suggestions: Try a small win bet on 10/1 So Scottish and even smaller each way bets on 25/1 Traprain Law and 66/1 Fringill Dike with all the extra places you can muster.
Willie Mullins had been quieter than usual on the bumper scene up until the Dublin Racing Festival since which he has fired in three rockets and inherited another, and has five runners in total, so he is short odds to add to his current haul of 13 wins in the race.
Significantly in a race restricted to 4-6yos, 11 of his successes were with 5yos (and he only got one of his two winning 6yos from Gordon Elliott a fortnight before Cheltenham) so as a 6yo that slightly puts me off Gameofinches, though Fact To File was the same age when second two years ago.
Patrick Mullins has chosen Copacabana instead so Paul Townend is on Gameofinches. A speed figures guru who I respect, Andy Holding, has Copacabana with the lowest time figure of the whole field so I’m struggling to be with him at the prices given that he is favourite, even if Ruby Walsh has been talking him up as the one that he likes of the Mullins runners for the last fortnight. He can win of course but it will be a very different tempo of race to the one that he won at Navan.
Relegate caused a surprise here eight years ago following up her win in the Grade 2 mares’ bumper at the DRF and BAMBINO FEVER is trying to do likewise.
Ratings are usually overlooked when discussing the Champion Bumper as punters seem to prefer the whispers but they shouldn’t be. With her mares’ allowance, although only the perceived third choice of Mullins’ quintet, she is joint-top rated on BHA figures. That’s interesting as eight of the last 22 winners were top rated by BHA (if including a mares’ allowance), including five of the last ten and most of them didn’t start favourite. We had two joint-top rated contenders in 2022 and they finished 1-2.
At the top of those ratings we have Kalypso’Chance (130) and Bambino Fever (130) ahead of Aqua Force (127) who has recently moved to Mullins so they have done very little with him to make a difference, Idaho Sun (126) as the best of the Brits for Harry Fry, Fortune De Mer (125), Gameofinches (124), Copacabana (123), He Can’t Dance (123), Sortudo (123) and Heads Up (123).
Jody Townend rode Bambino Fever at the DRF and keeps the ride. Patrick was never in line to ride as would struggle to do the weight so he didn’t reject her.
Gordon Elliott prepared Sir Gerhard before he was switched late on to Mullins and had the second and third last year to add to his two wins in the race and, with Windbeneathmywings ruled out for David Pipe last week, he provides the main market rival to Team Mullins in Kalypso’Chance who beat Heads Up at Navan in a bumper where Elliott has run some of what turned out to be his very best horses down the years. It niggles me though that after he won Elliott hinted he had a better one.
As highlighted earlier, the main home hope has to sit it out so that mantle is now transferred to No Drama This End according to the market: he beat a well-fancied Skelton horse at Warwick. Nicholls doesn’t mind having a shy at the Champion Bumper but the closest that he has got was Captain Teague who was third two years ago. The last time the Brits won was with Ballyandy nine years ago.
The Skelton team have been talking up Fortune De Mer who won at Cheltenham earlier this season and was then beaten under a penalty on a sharp track last time and they know the time of day with their bumper team so he could be best of the Brits.
In summary, at around 13/2 I like Bambino Fever’s chances of becoming the third mare to win in nine years from limited representation.
Champion Bumper Recent Winners
Champion Bumper Pace Map
Pinch of salt pace map...
Champion Bumper selection
In summary, at around 13/2 I like Bambino Fever’s chances of becoming the third mare to win in nine years from limited representation.
Suggestion: Back Bambino Fever each way
*
And that's a wrap on Day 2. My thanks again to the five judges who have kindly shared their thoughts. Remember, the value game is not about a winner a race but a profit at the end of the year - let's hope also at the end of this week!
Good luck!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Jonbon_Kingmaker_Warwick2023.png319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-10 14:47:362025-03-11 09:05:49Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips
We're back! The 2025 Cheltenham Festival is here and, for those of us who have found patience for its arrival difficult, the great news is it starts ten minutes earlier! Yes, it's a 1.20pm kick off each day, moved from the traditional half-one slot, so don't tune in late...
After the success of recent big meeting previews, where the races have been divvied among a brains trust of racing judges, I'm joined by some estimable company for this year's Cheltenham Festival preview posts. They are:
Rory Delargy, a man who has forgotten considerably more than I'll likely ever know about the winter game. Alongside Ruby Walsh, he's a contributor to the Cheltenham Paddy Podcast; and is one half of sportinglife's Racing Consultants as well as a regular correspondent for the Irish Field. He's a long-time friend of geegeez, having penned articles occasionally here for a decade and more.
David Massey is the other half of Racing Consultants and our own 'Roving Reporter'. In his Trackside guise, he is a regular at most of the major meetings, casting an expert eye (two, actually) across the paddock discerning those ready to go and those for whom improvement can be expected another day.
Dave Renham is our resident number-cruncher-in-chief, diving deeply into the data for your delectation every midweek. This is a maiden spin for Dave in the geegeez race preview fold and I'm excited to read his contributions.
Paul Jones is Mr Original Cheltenham Festival Guide, having authored that venerable tome from its inception in 2000 up until 2015. More recently he's been running his own premium service and, as well as racing, is a recognised expert on the Eurovision Song Contest amongst other specialisms. Paul has just finished ghost authoring Gary Wiltshire's new book, Fifty Years in the Betting Jungle, which is available here.
Matt Tombs is a second trends legend, taking up the Weatherby's Cheltenham Festival Guide mantle from Paul in seamless fashion. In recent years, Matt too has focused on his private service, though he can still be found articulately sharing his considered data-driven opinions on the Matchbook podcast and website.
They are all extremely welcome (back) to geegeez. Unfortunately for you, dear reader, you'll be lumbered with my thoughts for the remaining two races each day. Well, you can't have everything, can you?
Also, a quick reminder about our Tix competition where you can win £100 each day. Full details are in this post, including the rules, but basically the person who gets the highest odds winning ticket wins. That means it's a level playing field for small and large stakes players so everyone has the same chance of winning. Tix is here.
Let's get to it. Remember, it's a one-TWENTY start; do not oversleep.
1.20 Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno.
The traditional curtain raiser. The roar of the crowd. It's become cliché to mention the roar but, if you've ever been on the side of that hill some time in the middle of the hour after 1pm, you'll know it's a real, almost palpable, spirit that manifests: 55,001+ individual exhortations merging into a single raucous cheer. Part relief that the waiting is over, part hope for what might come next, all expectation of a thrilling carnival of the horse... and they're off!
Hardly surprising, then, that in such a frenzied cauldron cool heads - whether connected above two or four legs - are tricky to find. Including the preliminaries, this is a twenty minute test of temperament as much as class, speed, agility and staying power. It is a thoroughly searching examination.
So who, and which, present themselves to the trial this time? In what is an almost exclusively Irish affair in 2025, with just two home challengers (one of those a triple digit price), in theory that makes assessing the form easier; there is no need to guess which of the cohorts separated by the Irish Sea might be ascendant. Here, at least, it will be the Irish on top. And yes, probably more generally so, too. Probably, but not definitely...
Current head boy is Kopek Des Bordes, unbeaten in three and rampant in a Grade 1 when last seen. On the bare form of that Dublin Racing Club score he's a few pounds ahead of the next best, for all that he'll likely need to find a little more to withstand the onslaught of this field, all of which are entitled to improve. That's the nature of races like the Supreme, as different from more workaday contests: it's not enough to know which horse has shown the best form so far - we must project to which might step forward the most under these conditions.
Think of it like this: Kopek Des Bordes begins the race with a few lengths' head start over the next most talented horse - on what we've seen to date let's call that one Romeo Coolio. Romeo in turn gets a couple of lengths on Salvator Mundi who is himself a couple in front of William Munny and Workahead. It's a staggered ability start.
But during the course of four minutes or so of racing much can change. Advantages can be whittled or extended, and as they collect beyond the jam stick at the top of the hill there will be a revised pecking order at least somewhere on the squash ladder.
Let's return to KdB. Yes, he was imperious at Leopardstown and, if your modus operandi is not to question but merely to punt in tune with the market, he's very likely to give you a stirring run for your rupees. But the value seeker has to furrow her brow, stroke his chin and scratch its head as she/he/it considers how each horse might get beaten, and how likely it is that they will be, before settling on a wager at the prevailing odds. For a majority of runners in all races, the most likely reason they'll be beaten is because they are not good enough. But that's not the only bullet to dodge.
Kopek Des Bordes is trained by Willie Mullins, a man with seven victories in this race, the first two of which returned 25/1 and 40/1. But those were in 1995 and 2007, and Willie is a little bit better known these days. His five subsequent winners, achieved between 2013 and 2021, all returned 6/1 or shorter and were all ridden by the first string jockey. So far, so Kopek - he certainly won't be beaten because of his connections.
But this fella has shown signs of immaturity in the past. On his first run this season, on St Stephen's/Boxing Day at Leopardstown, he over raced early and was clumsy at every single flight. He still won, comfortably, in a big field containing some smart novices. Perhaps it was just freshness after his summer layoff, and greenness on his first public hurdles outing.
He returned to that same venue five weeks later and was a new man, nearly. Still a little keen for much of the race, his jumping had been transformed and he was alert enough to dodge a loose horse crossing his path as it ran out. In the finish he laughed at this Grade 1 gang, many of which appeared credible contenders pre-race. It was a terrific performance and one that promises more when he learns to settle better.
If he is headstrong, he'll need to cope with a first trip outside Ireland; and with the Festival preamble, rarely more of a test than for the opening race; and with the anxiety of his rider down at the start (even the most experienced and calmest of pilots gets dem buttyflies circling by the tape). Frankly, he's expended so much nervous energy in his first two hurdle races without facing a serious challenge in the run to the line that expecting a boilover to change the result might be wishful thinking. But if there is a chink in his armour, that's the prime suspect.
Who else? What about Romeo Coolio? Trained by Gordon Elliott, who tends to swerve the DRF with his A listers, Romeo was second in the Champion Bumper here last year (travelling, check) and won the Grade 1 Future Champions Novices' Hurdle at Christmas (class, check). He's also shown form on soft through to good to yielding turf (going, check). It was a taking performance in slamming Bleu De Vassy by nine lengths in the G1 but the horses he beat were thumped by Kopek Des Bordes over the same track and trip in February. He looks reliable but perhaps hasn't got quite the upside of the favourite. And the former Deloitte Hurdle that Kopek won has a much better track record in Supreme terms than the Future Champions.
Salvator Mundi has had a tall reputation ever since chasing home Sir Gino in France, both horses subsequently purchased by the Donnelly's. He ran a midfield race on his UK debut, in the Triumph Hurdle no less, and didn't race in Ireland until May of last year when he picked up a maiden hurdle in a field of 13 by... checks notes... 62 lengths! It's fair to say that was an extremely moderate contest in this context so what happened next? Salvator went to Punchestown for the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer in mid-January and won by three lengths. His performance there - pulled hard, jumped poorly - was reminiscent of Kopek Des Bordes' seasonal debut; if he can improve a similar amount, in form and comportment terms, he's clear second best and has a chance to derail his more illustrious stablemate. If.
The last two winning trainers in the race were Henry de Bromhead and Barry Connell, both of whom have had the horrible misfortune to be touched (or in Henry's case, gripped) by tragedy in recent years. De Bromhead bids to repeat last year's success with the unexposed Workahead. Winner of a point on his debut in January 2023 (form has some substance), he was off then until early December last year when running third in a huge field behind Jasmin De Vaux. He came on for that effort in clearing away, by seven lengths from William Munny, in a maiden at Christmas.
William Munny, representing Connell, whose 2023 winner Marine Nationale was ridden by the late Michael O'Sullivan, so tragically lost and in whose memory the race is now named, has run twice since defeat to Workahead: a close second to the now injured Kawaboomga and then an easy win in Listed company last month. Neither of those runs quite match up to Workahead's performance in beating him, and Henry's horse has much the greater scope to improve. The 75 day layoff is a bit of a concern but de Bromhead knows what he's doing when it comes to the Cheltenham Festival.
We're getting into the longer grass now with the likes of Irancy and Karbau, Mullins 'also engaged' types. Both are unexposed albeit with a more ordinary level of form, and neither make much appeal given Willie's first string record in this race.
Closest to Kopek Des Bordes at Leopardstown was Karniquet, who I quite fancied for the County Hurdle. Instead, he's been declared here and, though I bet him months ago, I'm behind the current price and don't fancy him one bit in this company. Funiculi Funicula is the final string to Willie's hirsute bow and he comes here off a Clonmel maiden score, which is like getting going from the springboard at your local baths to cliff diving in Mexico: good luck with that project.
There are two home contenders, comfortably the more likely of the duo being Tripoli Flyer. He was a good winner of the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices' at Kempton a couple of weeks ago, form that is solid but not spectacular. Connections initially suggested he'd miss the Cheltenham party, but here he is and it feels a bit of an afterthought. Likeable chap all the same. Tutti Quanti and Henry's other runner, Sky Lord, might need to start now to have a winning chance.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners
Supreme Novices' Hurdle Pace Projection
More Willie's out front than an am dram production of Hot Fuzz.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle Selection
This revolves around Kopek Des Bordes. He seems sure to be on the premises assuming he doesn't boil over and he might be almost (almost!) a bet to nothing with the 'money back (as free bet) if second' books. A value alternative is Workahead, lightly raced but with very good form in the book already. He jumps well, looks a strong stayer and has the scope to step forward a fair bit.
Suggestion: Back Kopek Des Bordes with the 'money back if second' concession. And/or try Workahead each way at 8/1 or bigger.
Matt's Tix Pix:Tix is a smart multi-race bet placement tool that is free to use. In this race, I'll have the favourite on A and a couple of alternatives, as well as unnamed favourite on B.
I have not been able to find an Arkle bet all season.
And I’m still struggling, with Majborough being a strong favourite that is hard to oppose after impressing in both chase starts this season, and also having already won at the Festival when taking last season’s Triumph. Some will point to no five-year-old having won the Arkle since the weight allowance was eradicated but none of those since Voy Por Ustedes were in Marlborough’s class and he won a four-year-old championship despite Mullins stating he looked more like a three-mile chaser. He looks correctly priced at 4/7 to finally give J P McManus a first Arkle winner and Willie Mullins his seventh in 11 years.
So, I have been waiting for a 'without Majborough' market to emerge for some inspiration for a bet and we have just four to choose from (would have been three but for the jettisoning of the Turners). They are headed by L’Eau Du Sud who is 4-4 over fences including landing the Grade 1 Henry VIII and two Grade 2s at Warwick and here over course and distance.
And that Cheltenham win was where I thought he jumped the best of his four wins. I doubt he was fully wound up at Warwick where he won the race early after kicking on five out. Too early as it turned out as Rubaud almost caught him, that one having won the Pendil since, so I’m fancying Harry Skelton to hold L’Eau Du Sud up this time and ride him to have one go at Majborough; that is also the best way to ride him if they want to guarantee good prize money for the Trainers’ Championship and David Power Cup which is also in their minds. I’m sure Dan left plenty to work on fitness-wise in the Kingmaker.
Personally, I think the best chance they have of beating Majborough is to sit on his outside and put the jolly’s jumping under pressure, as he made niggly errors at three fences down the back straight and there are two extra fences to be jumped in the Arkle over a sharper test of speed and a shorter race. Will they do that, or prefer to ride him patiently and pounce late?
I fancy that Jango Baie is a better horse than L’Eau Du Sud but can he be as effective as the grey over two miles? Without a doubt, he’d be in the Turners over 2m4f if that race still existed. A Grade 1 winning novice hurdler rated 8lb higher than Dan Skelton’s charge over hurdles, he too jumped Cheltenham very well when winning in December, and the runner-up Springwell Bay is now rated 154 after winning since so two big ticks there. Narrowly beaten by Handstands last time in sticky ground, where Nico was kind of looking after him with the spring in mind, even over two miles I’d expect him to improve on that effort. Can he give Nicky Henderson an eighth win in the race?
Touch Me Not is expected to make the pace but having been beaten by L’Eau Du Sud at Sandown by 3¾l (made a bad mistake at half-way though didn’t lose much momentum) and Majborough at Leopardstown by 9l, it’s hard to make an argument why he can cause an upset and many would rather see him in the Grand Annual instead. On a literal line through him, Majborough has over 5l in hand over L’Eau Du Sud.
More interesting of the two outsiders is Only By Night with her 7lb mares’ allowance, which Put The Kettle On took advantage of to win the 2020 Arkle. She would be half the odds (or even more) if running in the Mares’ Chase so this is a bold move from her connections but they know she is fully effective at 2m whereas 2m4f wasn’t a guarantee on Friday. A fine jumper and a big, scopey mare, she has taken off for going chasing.
Arkle Recent Winners
Arkle Pace Projection
Touch Me Not will probably unwittingly make the pace for Majborough, with the likes of L'Eau du Sud expected to play later. It's possible Nico tries to use Jango Baie's stamina and goes for home mid-race.
Arkle Chase Selection
In short, all markets including the Without-fav market look bang on so I can’t find an Arkle bet. Sorry! Better luck tomorrow!
Suggestion: No bet.
Matt's Tix Pix: Maj banker on A, with some 'just in case' C cover.
2.40 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3 handicap, 3m1f)
Previewed by Dave Renham.
The Ultima is the first handicap of the meeting and in these types of races I use past race trends at Cheltenham as an important part of my narrowing the field process.
This is a race where British trainers have dominated, with no Irish winner since Tony Martin’s Dun Doire in 2006. However, the Irish are targeting the race more than they have done in the past having had seven runners in 2022 and eight last year. This year there are five Irish-trained entries with Malina Girl the shortest priced at around the 12/1 mark.
Looking at the British challenge Lucinda Russell won the Ultima in 2022 and 2023 with Corach Rambler. Prior to that she saddled four other runners, priced 20/1, 28/1, 16/1 and 25/1, finishing 4th, 4th, 5th and 6th respectively. This time, she runs Whistle Stop Tour and Myretown. The O’Neill yard have had three wins and four placed runners from 25 starters although their last win was back in 2014. Their sole entry this year is Crebilly. David Pipe, who runs King Turgeon, has also enjoyed three winners as well as the runner up in 2022.
Time to dig into other past trends.
23 of the last 25 winners finished in the first six last time out (LTO), with the two wins from those 7th or worse coming at a cost of 163 runners.
From a market perspective 19 of the 25 winners came from the top five in the betting, including 11 of the last 12.
56% of all runners have been Irish-bred yet they have provided the winner 84% of the time (21 times). Irish-breds have outperformed all other countries of breeding in the place market, too, hitting 22% compared with 15%.
Other positives include a LTO market rank in the top four of the betting, and having one to three career chase wins.
Looking at weight carried there is a roughly even split between the top half of the weights and the bottom half.
Age wise seven- and eight-year-olds have provided 64% of the winners from 46% of the runners so there would be a marginal preference for those compared to other ages.
The two that tick all of the main trends boxes are The Changing Man and Broadway Boy.
The Changing Man easily won a weak-looking renewal of the Reynoldstown last time but, more importantly for me, his previous three runs when second each time came in top notch handicaps. Detractors could argue why should he suddenly break that run of seconds in handicaps, but it is hard to see him out of the frame.
Broadway Boy is well fancied by the stable and this has been the target. Yes, he does have a couple of negatives – the 0 from 32 stable record in the race (last 25 years), and his disappointing run last time at Cheltenham. However, the yard has rarely had fancied runners in this race (just three sent off at single figure odds) and there were valid excuses for his most recent poor run. His other Cheltenham form is excellent, comprising three wins, a second and a third from five other starts. He likes to race up with the pace and so should stay out of trouble.
While discussing run style this race has seen hold up horses as the most successful group in the past 25 years. However, in the more recent past the Ultima has seemingly started to favour prominent racers. The pace map is below.
The main competition for the lead with Broadway Boy looks likely to be in the shape of Myretown – hopefully they won’t take each other on too early.
Horses that join The Changing Man and Broadway Boy on my shortlist include Henry’s Friend. He ticks most of the trends and had a good win last time out. He jumps well and he should be close to the pace. Whistle Stop Tour also matches most of the trends and, as mentioned earlier, his trainer Lucinda Russell knows how to get her runners right for this one. A horse at a bigger price that I can see running well is Famous Bridge. He came fourth last year and, although 3lb higher now, his last run at Haydock was impressive albeit over further. With several bookies offering six places his price of around 18/1 offers each way punters an option.
My final piece of number-crunching is that, looking at the past 10 years, if backing all horses in the top five of the betting ‘blind’ one would have secured an ROI of 57% to SP and 78% to BSP. A good profit would have been achieved if backing all qualifiers to place on the exchange. You'll not be surprised, therefore, to see four of my shortlisted runners near the head of the market.
Ultima Recent Winners
Ultima Pace Projection
An even looking tempo overall, though a lot of perennially prominent racers may push things on from the start.
Ultima Handicap Chase Selection
Suggestion: Try Broadway Boy win only at 15/2
Matt's Tix Pix: A's and B's and not straying far from the top of the market.
The race which has changed complexion most since confirmations is the Mares’ Hurdle, starting with the supplementary entry of William Hill (Schweppes for those over 55) Hurdle winner Joyeuse, followed by a surprise (to many) switch for Lossiemouth, who we’d been told was definitely on track for the Champion Hurdle; and, at the last minute, Golden Ace, definitely on track for this according to Jeremy Scott, jumped into the Champion Hurdle instead.
All that to-ing and fro-ing means the ante-post betting needs treating with caution, and if you’re worried that your pre-confirmations pick is now drifting, that’s only to be expected thanks to the influence Lossiemouth will have on the market. Whether she will have the same impact in the race is the big question, and my gut instinct was that switching her was a sign that Willie Mullins wasn’t happy enough with her wellbeing to think she could win or run well in a Champion Hurdle. If that’s the case it could be argued that she is too short, at around 4/6, for this race. Whatever race you’re running in at the Festival, you can’t afford to be short of your peak even if the ratings suggest otherwise.
The counterpoint to the above argument was put forward by Ruby Walsh on Paddy Power’s FTHM podcast on Sunday when he said the switch was simply a case of Paul Townend wanting to ride Lossiemouth. Had she run in the Champion, Townend would have ridden State Man, but he’d also rather ride Lossiemouth than Jade de Grugy in this race and hence the decision was made to switch target. You don’t have to believe that story, but it’s there for you to mull over in any case, having implications for the chances of both Lossiemouth and the original ante-post favourite.
Aside from the argument as to her wellbeing and how a heavy fall at Leopardstown last time will have affected her, there is also the debate about what Lossiemouth achieved 12 months ago. Beating Telmesomethinggirl, Hispanic Moon and Lantry Lady (beaten a total of 169 lengths in their four completed starts since) is not the performance it was cracked up to be at the time. She is a grand mare, but definitely a little overrated in some quarters, and her run behind Constitution Hill at Kempton is a fair guide to her ability. A repeat of that might be just enough to win this, but she doesn’t really appeal at her odds-on quote.
Jade de Grugy has undeniable form claims having won a Grade 1 as a novice, and she was visually impressive in winning the Quevega Hurdle at Punchestown on her belated return. I think there’s an element of recency bias in the way she’s been catapulted to the head of the market, and she has been shunned by Paul Townend which is hardly a boost to backers’ confidence. She is still a trifle short in the betting on balance based on the generic drift in the field when Lossiemouth was declared, although she may get bigger on the day. On the other hand, it’s not easy to make a strong case for the same connections’ Gala Marceau, who was disappointing at Warwick behind Royale Margaux, with a blunder two out incidental in the grand scheme.
Joyeuse was supplemented for this after winning the William Hill Hurdle impressively off a mark of 123, but even if you take the view she had a stone in hand that day she would still have something to find at this level, and it should be borne in mind that she had no other options at Cheltenham having failed to qualify for the handicaps.
July Flower has shown smart form in France, with the pick of her efforts a third in the French Champion Hurdle behind Losange Bleu and Hewick last May. She’s disappointed in two UK starts, pulling too hard, but settled better when winning on her return for Henry de Bromhead in the Grade 3 Kerrymount Mares’ Hurdle over an extended 2m3f at Leopardstown in late December, beating Kala Conti and Jetara by 4 lengths and 16 lengths, respectively.
July Flower was well ridden to score in the Kerrymount, Rachael Blackmore sitting a little way off the strong pace set by Lot of Joy and Jetara before closing up from halfway and expending her energy more efficiently than the leaders. Kala Conti was closer to that pace and made her bid for home earlier than ideal but was still only four lengths adrift of July Flower in second at the line. Kala Conti was conceding 5lb to the winner on the day, and I would rate her higher on the figures for that contest, as would most conventional handicappers.
The Leopardstown form looked good at the time and has been franked by subsequent black-type wins for Jetara and World of Fortunes, while Lot of Joy, beaten 48 lengths there, finished much closer to Jade de Grugy in the Quevega last month.
Mares' Hurdle Recent Winners
Mares' Hurdle Pace Projection
No obvious pace angle and it might be that Lossiemouth makes her own running to keep it simple and safe.
Mares' Hurdle Selection
If there is one mare who is unexposed and capable of improvement at this trip, it’s KALA CONTI, who was racing beyond 2m for the first time in the Kerrymount and arguably produced a career-best effort, although it’s worth pointing out that her defeat of Kargese and Nurburgring in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown last season is a pretty warm piece of form, as is finishing within half a length of Majborough in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile at the same track 13 months ago. Or even a second-place finish behind the much-vaunted Anzadam when carrying a 5lb penalty in the Grade 3 Willowwarm Hurdle earlier this season.
Gordon Elliott has not been shouting Kala Conti from the rooftops, but her form credentials are there in plain sight, and her price has consistently failed to reflect those claims, perhaps because she was expected in some quarters to head to the Coral Cup. At one stage, July Flower was 5/1 for this while Kala Conti was 25/1 and while the differential is smaller now, I would argue strongly that it’s Kala Conti who should be the shorter price of the pair. As such, she represents perhaps the best each-way value of the week in the Championship and quasi-championship races at the meeting.
Suggestion: Back Kala Conti each way at around 16/1.
Matt's Tix Pix: Lossie and Jade on A, plus a few B's here in search of a result, I think.
The highlight on day one is unquestionably the Champion Hurdle and, for what it lacks in quantity of runners, it more than compensates through their sheer quality. The last two winners of the race return and will be joined by a mare in receipt of seven pounds and who put up arguably the performance of the season. Let's get to the details.
The 2024 winner was State Man, a first since 2016 for Willie Mullins, and he defends his crown after a somewhat middling campaign by his own lofty standards. A narrow defeat to Brighterdaysahead on seasonal debut was perfectly reasonable and promised a step forward next time. However, while that first to second run improvement has been a feature of Mullins' top class team this term, State Man was thumped by 31 lengths at the hooves of the same mare when they reacquainted in the Neville Hotels Hurdle (G1). Between the pair, a length and a quarter ahead of State Man, was 10-year-old (now 11) Winter Fog, sent off at 66/1; and only a length and a half behind State Man was 200/1 shot Fils d'Oudairies.
The winning time was good but not great, and that all leads to me being pretty suspicious of the merit of the winner's performance: like the race time, I feel it was good but not great. Could it have been very tacky ground that day, favouring those on the speed and perhaps conditions State Man hated? Or was State Man just bang out of sorts. It's a stretch to believe that both horses ran their races and the mare's winning margin extended by more than thirty lengths!
Obviously, if you take that form literally - and at least one extremely good judge and former multiple top jockey at the meeting is doing just that - then you'd have to think Brighterdaysahead wins the Champion Hurdle. She had a pacemaker there and the same horse, King Of Kingsfield, will do her donkey work again here. I wasn't overly impressed with her jumping that day and we've not seen her since - though that's fairly typical for Gordon Elliott to skip the Dublin Racing Festival, the obvious stepping stone between Christmas and Cheltenham.
State Man did win last time, at the DRF, where he beat Daddy Long Legs (who?) by six lengths after Lossiemouth paid for a poor jump at top speed when she and State Man were having at it from the get go. The winner was entitled to tire after his early exertions, and his score would be considered hugely inefficient in sectional terms; still, sometimes you gotta win ugly if you wanna win (and sometimes you gotta write ugly if you wanna entertain - yuk). The victory did little for the winner's Champion Hurdle prospects bar knock a rival out of the reckoning and perhaps restore a touch of his shattered confidence. He's not been the same Man this season.
It's high time we introduced the top billing, Constitution Hill. Forced to miss last year's Blue Riband due to the ailment that struck the Seven Barrows yard of trainer Nicky Henderson, he's back and bouncing again this term. There's been plenty of chat about how he's 'better than ever', a claim which is both highly likely untrue and also completely moot. His form in winning four times, three of them Grade 1's, since his 2023 Champion Hurdle success has been at a notably lower - in the order of ten to 15 pounds - level. And yet it's still better than Brighterdaysahead's, barring that one 'too good to be true?' run.
Henderson's record in the race is peerless: his nine wins bests Willie's five, with Elliott yet to register. Moreover, Henderson had won four of the seven renewals between Annie Power's 2016 triumph and State Man's last year for the Closutton squad - a race in which the Brit had the clear favourite before his withdrawal.
This season Constitution Hill ran Lossiemouth off her legs early in Kempton's G1 Christmas Hurdle before that mare battled on gamely to go down by only two and a half lengths; and he then showed up for the G2 International Hurdle on Festival Trials Day at Cheltenham. That was essentially a regulation canter but proved his wellbeing, a sentiment affirmed by an excellent public workout at Kempton a couple of weeks ago. The 'vibes' then are strong with this one.
Burdett Road has been nine lengths behind Constitution Hill (bad blunder at the second last stopped him being a little closer) and was apparently outstayed by Golden Ace in the Kingwell last time. That mare, herself a Cheltenham Festival winner twelve months ago when beating Brighterdaysahead no less in a muddling Dawn Run Mares' Novices Hurdle, will need to travel at a much quicker tempo this time - but she's at least showing better form as the spring arrives. Her greater proven stamina ought to see her finish in front of Burdett Road again.
The rest are very unlikely to be good enough and any of them winning would be one of the shocks of all time at the Festival.
Champion Hurdle Recent Winners
Champion Hurdle Pace Projection
A slightly misleading pace map as King Of Kingsfield is expected to push the pace for ownermate Brighterdaysahead. Burdett Road is a customary forward goer, too.
Champion Hurdle Selection
A small field race between classy but largely exposed horses does not generally a value proposition make. This comes down to how highly you rate the performance of Brighterdaysahead in battering several of her Champion Hurdle rivals, notably State Man, in that Christmas Grade 1 at Leopardstown. Anything like a literal interpretation means she's the play for you. But she's not the play for me, except with Tote's generous 'money back as a free bet if second' offer. I can't have State Man on his form this season and will consider it one of Willie's finest achievements if he can pull this rabbit out of the hat.
No, it's Constitution Hill for me. I respect the mare, especially in receipt of 7lb (a concession I don't particularly respect in G1's), but I want to see the former heavyweight champion reclaim his belt. Betting wise he's not my sort of price but I have included him in a few 'muggy' accas.
Suggestion: Bet Brighterdaysahead with the tote 'money back as free bet if second' concession. I don't think she'll beat Constitution Hill, but if I've underestimated that demolition job last time then she looks just about a free hit against Constitution Hill. Call it an emotional hedge if you like: my heart is all in on Connie.
4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3, 2m 1/2f)
Previewed by Matt Tombs.
The Hallgarten & Novum Wines Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Fred Winter, to you and me) is a tough race for juveniles, usually completely different from anything they’ve contested before.
One of the key attributes is experience. Whilst experience in lots of hurdles race helps, it can also show your hand to the handicapper. In France there is a three-year-old season in the spring and horses benefit from experience over time there. They learn at home as well as at the track and the early start horses get in France can be a big advantage.
Horses that began in National Hunt races in France are 8/88 for +59 (66% ROI).
Murciahas a good profile, then, having begun in France more than a year ago and racing four times by early June, after which she was sold to join Willie Mullins.
Her first run for Willie was in the Grade 2 at Leopardstown at Christmas where she bombed out, beaten 22l in 8th. However, Jeff Kidder (2021 Fred Winter winner) was last of seven, and Aramax (2020 winner) was well beaten when falling in that Grade 2.
Juveniles, even more so than older novices, can improve hugely through the season - or regress as they develop physically. It’s always as well to be cautious about form in the autumn and at Christmas, as it often gets reversed come the spring.
Not many Festival handicaps have a key trial as the conditions races often do. However, there is a rated hurdle at Naas in February which was run for the first time in 2017 and is building up a strong profile as a springboard for Fred Winter winners.
The previous eight renewals of the Naas race have produced four Fred Winter winners, three of which were doing the double. Overall, runners from it are 4/17 +26 (153% ROI), with 3 of the 13 losers placed. In addition, Lark In The Mornin was declared at Naas last year but became a non-runner on the day, before winning the Fred Winter. This very much looks the race used by top Irish yards to prep for the Fred Winter.
This year Murcia looked green and her jumping was novicey but she finished really strongly to be beaten just a neck. She will have to be much more professional if she is to cope with the hurly-burly of a 22-runner juvenile handicap where they tend to go a strong gallop for the quality of the race. There’s the risk that it’s all too much for her and she bombs out but the reward is that she is open to stacks of improvement if she can put it all together – connections seem to think she’ll love the drying ground.
Those four Naas runners won the Fred Winter off 125 (Jazzy Matty), 137 (Brazil), 138 (Aramax) & 139 (Band Of Outlaws). Murcia has a mark of 133 in Ireland and the BHA handicapper has added 3lb so she’ll be running off 136, very similar to three of the previous winners from the Naas trial.
Fred Winter Hurdle Recent Winners
Fred Winter Hurdle Pace Projection
Not a map to place too much store by, because many can be expected to adopt a different run style now they're actually doing their best!
Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle selection
Suggestion: Back Murcia at 10/1 or bigger (Matt Tombs)
Matt's Tix Pix: Five on A, and five more on B. At least!
5.20 National Hunt Novices' Handicap Chase (Grade 2, 3m 6f)
Previewed by David Massey.
Well, it’s a new look for an old Festival favourite this year, with the National Hunt Chase now a 0-145 handicap and not restricted to amateur riders anymore. As such, trends are hardly worth bothering with, although a trainer that’s had a few placed in the race before - David Pipe - has one here that just about heads my list up.
Gericault Roque has the look of one laid out for this. It seems almost ridiculous that a horse that finished second to Corach Rambler in the 2022 Ultima is still a novice, but here we are, seven runs later and no wins. But you can hardly argue with his form in big-field handicaps; second in a Mandarin, second in a Classic at Warwick, third in a Coral Gold Cup. It all stacks up.
He came back from a 26-month absence to run really well at Windsor 53 days ago. I was there on the day, my paddock notes reading “looks okay given the long absence, will come on but by no means unfit” and the way he ran in the race suggested those observations were close to the mark. He faded out of contention from two out but was far from disgraced in getting beaten less than ten lengths at the finish.
Wisely given time to recover from that run, he has the right profile for this and, with an extra place on offer, he looks a very solid each-way selection.
The winner of that Windsor race, Herakles Westwood, would be my back-up selection at the current prices. He’s always felt to me like a thorough stayer and, after the Windsor win, went to Newbury and confirmed that opinion by staying on all the way to the line over three miles, finishing third. I think a marathon distance could be right up his street, Harry Cobden in the saddle only a positive. I’ll throw a few quid at the forecast as well, just in case that’s the piece of form that unlocks this puzzle.
As far as the Irish contingent go, the race that the market believes will throw up the winner is the beginners' chase at Navan in January, won by the classy Three Card Brag with Captain Cody finishing third and Now Is The Hour fourth. Both runners headed here are unexposed over fences and, for a horse that was a Grade 2 winner over the smaller obstacles, Now Is The Hour looks to have a very workable mark off 139, with similar comments applying to Captain Cody off 140 (also a Grade 2 hurdles winner) - but I’m not telling you anything the market isn’t. Both will have been readied for this, and I couldn’t put you off.
November winner Transmission is another obvious one, with Neil Mulholland booking Patrick Mullins again (you did know you don’t have to book an amateur didn’t you, Neil?) but again, the market has him well found.
National Hunt Chase Recent Winners
NB This race was a non-handicap before 2025.
National Hunt Chase Pace Projection
National Hunt Chase Selection
The more I look at the race the more I think Gericault Roque is pretty much nailed on to run a good race, and he's my main selection. I also think he’ll be well-backed on the day, going off single figures, so anything 10/1 and up looks worth taking.
Selection: Back Gericault Roque each way at 10/1
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Those are the seven head scratchers on Day 1 of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival and how our assembled panel of experts see them. As with punting more generally, it's got to be fun first, profit second (the two not being mutually exclusive, of course); so if you've enjoyed the read, you're a winner already!
Stay lucky
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/ConstitutionHill_UnibetHurdle_CheltenhamTrialsDay2025.jpg320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-10 07:26:452025-03-10 17:38:32Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day One Preview, Tips
The Cheltenham Festival is almost upon us. For some it's just another race meeting, for many it's a special week in the racing calendar, and for a few it's Christmas and birthday rolled into one. Wherever you fit on that spectrum there are things about betting on Cheltenham that are different and that you ought to know. Those extend to what we're doing here on geegeez.co.uk, so let me share the plan for next week...
Daily Festival Previews
We'll have daily previews through the week covering all of the seven races each day. I'm delighted to say that I've got a crack squad of racing thinkers and writers to help you comb the form. They are:
Rory Delargy, a man who has forgotten considerably more than I'll likely ever know about the winter game. Alongside Ruby Walsh, he's a contributor to the Cheltenham Paddy Podcast; and is one half of sportinglife's Racing Consultants as well as a regular correspondent for the Irish Field. He's a long-time friend of geegeez, having penned articles occasionally here for a decade and more.
David Massey is the other half of Racing Consultants and our own 'Roving Reporter'. In his Trackside guise, he is a regular at most of the major meetings, casting an expert eye (two, actually) across the paddock discerning those ready to go and those for whom improvement can be expected another day.
Dave Renham is our resident number-cruncher-in-chief, diving deeply into the data for your delectation every midweek. This is a maiden spin for Dave in the geegeez race preview fold and I'm excited to read his contributions.
Paul Jones is Mr Original Cheltenham Festival Guide, having authored that venerable tome from its inception in 2000 up until 2015. More recently he's been running his own premium service and, as well as racing, is a recognised expert on the Eurovision Song Contest amongst other specialisms. Paul has just finished ghost authoring Gary Wiltshire's new book, Fifty Years in the Betting Jungle, which is available here.
Matt Tombs is a second trends legend, taking up the Weatherby's Cheltenham Festival Guide mantle from Paul in seamless fashion. In recent years, Matt too has focused on his private service, though he can still be found articulately sharing his considered data-driven opinions on the Matchbook podcast and website.
They are all extremely welcome (back) to geegeez. Unfortunately for you, dear reader, you'll be lumbered with my thoughts for the remaining two races each day. Well, you can't have everything, can you?
Remember, it's a one-TWENTY start each day this year, so don't oversleep!
What else?
As well as those daily previews, we've a dedicated Cheltenham zone which you can access here. There you'll find the latest news and updates about the horses, trainers and jockeys associated with the Festival; full trends analysis from Andy Newton across the four days and 28 races; and links to the races themselves.
Gold subscribers will have access to pace maps, full form, video replay links, and our profiling tools, Instant Expert and Profiler. You can grab a weekly ticket for just £15 here.
Offers Galore
There will be offers galore throughout the week and one of the best chances to come out in front at the Cheltenham Festival is to press up any and all for which you're eligible. One of the very best that I'm aware of at this stage is Tote's 'Money Back as a Free Bet if Second' on all 28 races. So, for example, you could bet Kopek Des Bordes in the Supreme and get your stake reloaded if one horse beats him; or Brighterdaysahead in the Champion Hurdle and get a free bet if Constitution Hill does Constitution Hill things.
Obviously there will be races where your pick is neither first nor second, but this offer is one I'll be playing in almost all of the non-handicaps at least.
Geegeez' sister site, Tix, is a partner of Tote and I'm happy to mention their great deals for customers. If you don't yet have a tote account you can get one here. Then you'll be able to a) get their 'new account' goodness, b) play Tix and c) avail of the offer above.
N.B. You need to opt in to this offer which you can do from the 'Promotions' tab on tote's website.
Elsewhere, bet365 will have daily Super Boosts - one horse they think they can get beaten and on which they are prepared to offer a tempting price.
William Hill are offering players a free bet (stake varies) to use on Day 1.
And I expect all bookmakers to have something for at least some customers before Tuesday's action gets underway - so keep your eyes peeled.
Quick disclaimer: obviously, you need to read the terms and conditions for any offer you're wanting to avail of. Make sure to opt in where required, and only bet what you'd otherwise burn on beer, coffee or something else frivolous.
Daily Tix Competition: Win £100 each day!
If you're new around here, you may not know about Tix, a brilliant piece of tote multi-race software, I co-created. It basically allows for smarter perms on wagers such as the placepot, jackpot, Scoop 6, quadpot, and placepot 7. The short video below explains how it works:
We've teamed up with tote to offer a daily Tix competition across the four days of Cheltenham. You'll be entered when you place any Cheltenham multi-race bet through the Tix app, and there's £100 in cash each day to the player with the highest stake to return ratio.
What is a stake to return ratio? Well, it's basically the ticket odds, and it's a way of making the competition equally accessible to smaller and larger staking players.
Here are a couple of examples to illustrate how it will work:
Example 1: Ticket cost £1.20, ticket payout (return) £42.50
Stake to return ratio is 42.5/1.2 = 35.42
Example 2: Ticket cost £10, ticket payout (return) £180
Stake to return ratio is 180/10 = 18
In these scenarios, Example 2 returns more actual cash (£180 vs £42.50), and a bigger actual profit (£170 vs £41.30), than Example 1.
But Example 1 has the higher stake to return ratio (35.42 vs 18) and would therefore win the competition if these were the two entries.
A couple of rules.
In the event of a tie, the prize will be shared between all tied players. There are no tie breaker provisos.
Only bets placed via Tix on Cheltenham multi-race pools (placepot, jackpot, quadpot, Scoop6, placepot 7) will count.
The judge's (my) decision is final - I'm sure it won't come to that.
Prizes will be credited to winners' accounts on the morning following racing, e.g. Wednesday morning for Tuesday's winner(s).
What now?
Already on site, in our Cheltenham Festival Zone, are daily trends for all four days; some preview night notes and a further trends deep dive into the Gold Cup; a glut of latest news; and links to the 28 races. If you're a Gold or Lite subscriber, those races will have extra detail such as recent winners, pace maps, and form profiles. You can get Gold (or Lite) here.
I can't wait to get started!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/CheltenhamFestival_JLT_2019.jpg319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2025-03-07 09:14:172025-03-10 08:31:092025 Cheltenham Festival Prep
As I am penning this piece, the excitement for the upcoming Cheltenham Festival has gone up a further notch with the big days less than a week away, writes Dave Renham. In this article I will analyse some past Cheltenham race trends. Here on geegeez.co.uk we get specific race trends shared all year round with all the big races covered by Andy Newton. The Cheltenham Festival trends are available already for each day and can be accessed here.
Introduction
From 2007 to 2013 I wrote a weekly column on big race trends in the Racing & Football Outlook and over time got an excellent feel for which races suited past trends. Past race trends can be very good indicators of how a future race is likely pan out, and this is usually the case with the Cheltenham Festival. Many people use trends to help narrow down the field making the eventual selection process less daunting. If we can reasonably confidently eliminate say 50% of the field, then it drastically increases our chances of success. Obviously, there will be times when the race trends are ‘bucked’ where the winner does not fit the typical winner’s profile, but fortunately for many Cheltenham races this happens quite rarely.
For the main part of this piece, I will examine the last 20 renewals of the Gold Cup. I am going to first examine the ten Gold Cups held between 2005 and 2014 and then compare those findings with the Gold Cups from 2015 to 2024. After this I will be in a position to hopefully pick out the very strongest trends. I will also highlight some of the strongest trends from three other races at the meeting at the backend of the article.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends
So let's look at the blue riband race, the Gold Cup. From 2005 to 2014 these were the most powerful trends:
2005-2014 Gold Cup Trends
Market Factors: 2005-14
5 winning favourites from 10.
9 out of 10 winners came from the top three in the betting.
Horses with an SP of 8/1 or shorter produced 9 winners from 36 runners (25%); horses priced 17/2 or bigger produced one winner from 107 (0.9%).
Last Race Factors: 2005-14
7 of the 10 winners won last time out (LTO). Those seven winners came from 44 qualifiers (15.9%); horses that finished 2nd or worse LTO provided three winners from 99 (3%).
All of the 10 winners came from one of three tracks – Leopardstown, Newbury or Kempton. This equates to 10 wins from 65 (15.4%). Other courses combined were 0/78 (0%).
All of the 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter LTO. Those 10 wins came from 103 runners (9.7%). Those priced 17/2 or bigger were 0 wins from 40 (0%).
Racing in a Grade 1 race LTO produced seven winners from 47 (14.9%). Those racing in Grade 2 or lower were three wins from 96 (3.1%).
Other Factors: 2005-14
Horses that had won previously at the Cheltenham Festival produced five winners from 37 (13.5%). Those with no previous Festival win were 5/106 (SR 4.7%).
Horses with an Official Rating of 166 or more produced seven winners from 37 (18.9%); those rated 165 or less were 3/96 (3.1%).
In terms of age, 10yos or older were 0 from 40 (0%). Nine of the winners came from horses aged 7, 8 or 9.
Horses that had previously won at least once that season produced eight wins from 83 qualifiers (9.6%). Horses that had not scored that season won 2/60 (3.3%).
Conclusion: 2005-14
During this ten-year time frame, the Gold Cup was dominated by the front end of the betting market. 2014 was the outlier with a 20/1 winner in Lord Windermere and placed runners at 16/1 and 14/1. A win LTO was a plus as was an OR of 166+. All the winners came from either Kempton, Newbury or Leopardstown and all the winners were priced 8/1 or shorter on their previous start.
It was also preferable to have raced in Grade 1 company LTO, to have previously won at the Festival and to have won that season. In terms of age, it was best to avoid horses aged 10 or older.
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Let's now compare the data from 2005 to 2014 with that for the most recent ten-year period, 2015-2024.
2015-2024 Gold Cup Trends
Market Factors: 2015-24
5 winning favourites from 10.
Seven out of 10 winners came from the top three in the betting (nine came from the top four).
Horses with an SP of 8/1 or shorter produced eight winners from 40 runners (20%); horses priced 17/2 or bigger produced two winners from 88 (2.3%).
Last Race Factors: 2015-24
Eight of the 10 winners won LTO. Those eight winners came from 59 qualifiers (13.6%); horses that finished 2nd or worse LTO provided two winners from 69 (2.9%).
Five of the 10 winners raced at Leopardstown LTO from 42 qualifiers (11.9%); Newbury LTO produced two winners from 10 (20%). Kempton LTO runners produced 0 winners from 16 (0%). All other courses combined were three wins from 60 (5%).
All of the last 10 winners were priced 10/3 or shorter LTO. Those 10 wins came from 63 runners (15.9%). Those priced 17/2 or bigger were 0 wins from 65 (0%).
Racing in a Grade 1 race LTO produced five winners from 65 (7.7%). Those racing in Grade 2 or lower had five wins from 63 (7.9%).
Othere Factors: 2015-24
Horses that had won previously at the Cheltenham Festival produced five winners from 42 (11.9%). Those with no previous Festival win have scored five times from 86 (SR 5.8%).
Horses with an Official Rating of 166 or more produced eight winners from 65 (12.3%); those rated 165 or less were two from 63 (3.2%).
In terms of age, 10yos or older were 0 from 22 (0%). Nine of the winners came from horses aged 7 or 8.
Horses that had previously won at least once that season produced all ten wins from 90 qualifiers (11.1%). Horses that had not previously won that season won 0 from 38 (0%).
Conclusion: 2015-2024
During this ten-year time frame, this race was once again dominated by the front end of the betting market. Five wins for favourites and nine of the ten winners were priced 8/1 or shorter at SP. A win LTO was a plus as was an OR of 166+, while a run at Leopardstown or Newbury LTO could be seen as a positive.
Previous Festival winners comfortably outperformed non Festival winners, while a win that season was paramount with all ten winners having that stat. An even stronger positive stat was horses priced 100/30 or less LTO as they produced all the winners from roughly 50% of the runners. Less horses aged 10yo+ took part during this time frame but once again they drew a blank.
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The Gold Cup Comparison
Overall, the vast majority of the key trends from 2005 to 2014 were seen again between 2015 and 2024. The race has been strongly dominated by the more fancied runners. That includes ten winning favourites during the past 20 years, and backing all favourites would have yielded a profit to SP of £14.12 (ROI +70.6%).
Below is a graph mapping the market rank of all 20 winners:
This is a neat way of illustrating the front end of market dominance. 18 of the 20 winners have come from the top four in the betting so it looks best to concentrate there.
15 of the last 20 winners won LTO – this is a strong positive that has ‘held’ during both ten-year periods. Essentially, a LTO winner has been five times more likely to win the Gold Cup than a horse that failed to win LTO. The graph below shows the A/E indices for different LTO positions:
These indices are another indication as to why a last day win before the Gold Cup has been a strong positive.
Sticking with last time out factors, all 20 winners were 8/1 or shorter on their most recent start with the last ten being 100/30 or shorter. Horses priced LTO 17/2 or bigger are 0 from 55. Now it is important to note that the vast majority of these 55 losers were decent prices come the big day, but only three of the 55 placed so if we are looking for a big priced placer, which can happen, the trends suggest that we should steer clear of this subset.
A previous Festival win has been a positive in both time frames. Overall, a previous Festival winner has been 2.4 times more likely to prevail in the Gold Cup when compared with runners who had not previously won at the Festival.
Based on the success of the top end of the betting markets it should come as no surprise that higher rated horses have been the most successful. An OR of 166 or more has produced 15 of the winners – this equates to 75% of the winners coming from around 38% of the total runners.
The age dynamic in terms of older horses (those aged 10 or older) has remained constant with these runners failing to register a win since Cool Dawn in 1998. In terms of horses aged nine or younger the last ten years has seen a slight switch with 7 and 8yos winning nine of the renewals.
A previous win that season was a positive in both time frames and that should be something to look out for again this year.
There are, however, a couple of 2005-2014 trends that did not repeat between 2015 and 2024. The first is those horses that raced in a Grade 1 event LTO. In the first ten years it seemed a strong positive if a horse ran in the highest class possible LTO. During that spell, they were roughly five times more likely to win than horses that raced in a Grade 2 or lower LTO. Fast forward to the latest ten-year period and there has been parity between both groups with no edge to horses that raced in a Grade 1 contest LTO.
The second pattern that did not repeat was the LTO Kempton one. This was a positive from 2005-2014, but actually since 2012 no LTO Kempton runner has gone on to win the Gold Cup. This is partly due to the fact that most runners in the past have come from the Boxing Day meeting at Kempton straight to the Festival. Nowadays more horses seem to fit in another run between these two big meetings.
One area I have yet to look at in terms of this race is trainers, and specifically Irish trainers versus British trainers. I will fix that now!
From 2005 to 2014, just 15.5% of the runners in the Gold Cup were trained in Ireland. In contrast, from 2015 to 2024 this has increased to 48.4%. The Irish trainers have dominantly outperformed British trainers over both time frames in terms of overall win rate. The graph below illustrates this:
Irish trainers have maintained their strike rate and with far more runners in the 2015–2024-time frame, it means they have provided the winner eight times in the last ten years (and all of the last six). British trainers have really struggled in recent years.
Splitting the data into two ten-year time frames for this race has shown that this is a race where many of the strong past trends remain the same. Generally, Grade 1 races for experienced horses are good races from a past trends perspective. However, as we have seen there has been a change in a couple of the trends highlighted between the two decades. As punters we need to be aware that this can happen and obviously react accordingly. Patterns change over time but the Gold Cup retains some very solid looking patterns which for this year’s renewal should help to narrow down the field to a small group of the most likely winners.
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I now want to pick out a few other races and highlight the very strongest past trends based on the last 20 years.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle
This is the first race of the meeting, and the strongest trend is around LTO placing. Simply, we want to be looking for horses that won last time. They have provided 16 of the 20 winners from 145 runners for a break-even situation to SP (well a 48p profit to be precise). Horses that finished 2nd or worse LTO have won 4 races from 173 runners for a loss of £108.50 (ROI -62.7%).
Not only that, we have had consistency in both 10-year groups with eight LTO winners from 2005-2014 and eight from 2015-2024. The win & placed (Each Way) percentages also strongly favour the LTO winners’ group. They have been over three times more likely to finish in the first three than horses that failed to win LTO.
Sticking with the win & placed theme, the graph below shows the consistency of performance of LTO winners when tackling the Supreme. I have grouped the LTO winners in five-year batches or groups to show their win & placed percentages in each period.
The percentages have not fluctuated much with most five-year groups around the 30% mark. Clearly, for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, we should be focusing our attention on LTO winners. Of course, a non-LTO winner may be successful this year as was the case last year, when Slade Steel won the race. However, the LTO 1st stats/trends are strongly in our favour.
Champion Hurdle
The Champion hurdle is the highlight of the first day and one recent trend that stands out is concerned with unbeaten horses that season. All of the last ten winners fitted that profile, and there were only 18 horses that qualified under that rule going back to 2015. This equates to a 55.6%-win strike rate. In the previous ten years there were also 18 qualifiers, but only three won. Having said that, from 2005 to 2014 horses unbeaten in that season were still three times more likely to win compared to horses that had lost at least once in the season.
As with the Supreme, last day winners are far more likely to win than those that failed to win LTO, amassing 17 successes from 101 runners (16.8%), and an A/E index 1.01 for LTO winners, compared to 3 wins from 134 (2.2%), A/E 0.45 for non-winners. In terms of the ten-year splits, 2005-2014 saw seven wins for LTO winners, 2015-2004 saw all ten wins.
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
This staying novice event is run on Gold Cup day and has one trend that has shifted dramatically in the last ten years. Let us look at the last 20 winners and their SPs:
The table neatly shows the difference between the ten years from 2005 to 2014 and those from 2015 to 2024 when it comes to the winning SPs. In the first ten-year period (lower half of the table) eight of the ten winners were priced in single figures with four favourites prevailing. In the most recent ten-year period nine of the ten winners were double figure prices and no favourite won.
The profit and loss figures for single figure priced runners during the two-time frames could not be more contrasting:
This type of switch-up reminds us once more that patterns and trends can change and that we cannot solely put our faith in all trends from past races. As punters we need to be aware that many trends will remain constant while a handful will not. Being able to adapt is part of what helps to make a punter successful over time.
Also, we are dealing with a smallish number of past races which again can seem to make trends fluctuate from time to time, whereas sometimes it was simply that the pattern was coincidence in the first place: we need to use skill and judgement to decide what is a trend and what is an accident of fate. Looking for reasons to justify a trend is a very good starting point in that regard.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/CheltenhamGoldCup2022_Preview.jpg320830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2025-03-06 12:05:052025-03-08 16:26:49Looking at Past Cheltenham Festival Trends
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