Racing Pointers | geegeez.co.uk

2.00 Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1, 3m)

Previewed by Dave Renham.

This race has had an average field size of 11 runners but, as with last year when six went to post, we have a shorter field of just seven here. I was hoping for the 'dead eight' which as a punter clearly gives more options. Let's first look at past trends in this race going back 25 years.

Irish bred runners have won 19 of the 25 races from 172 runners which equates to 11% and have had just under 30% hit the frame; other countries combined (GB/FR etc) are 6 wins from 103 (5.8%) with 21% placed.

Age wise, 7yos have dominated with 20 wins from the last 25. Yes, they have had more than half of the total runners, 52% to be precise, but from that 52% they have won 80% of the races (31.3% placed). 6yos have just one win from 48 but have a decent placed record and they have just one qualifier this year in Quai De Bourbon. 8yos are three from 53 (5.7%) but with only 17% hitting the frame.

Looking at past market factors, between 1999 and 2014 there were seven double figure priced winners, but none since. There have been nine winning favourites (six in last 10 years) and 10 of the last 11 renewals have gone to one of the front three in the market.

Previous winning course form has been a plus with past Cheltenham winners 1.8 times more likely to win than those that have not. Previous Festival winners have done very well from a small band of runners. Of the 20 prior Cheltenham Festival winners five won (25%) and 12 in total won or placed (60%). Backing all 20 would have yielded a 61% ROI to BSP.

23 of the 25 winners won or came second LTO. Horses that finished third or worse are just two from 87 (2.3%).

All 25 winners raced between three and 11 weeks previously. Fifty horses have either run with a shorter or longer break than that and all of them lost, with only 10% of them managing a place.

Willie Mullins has saddled the winner five times, and he has the top two in the betting (and four of the seven runners in total). The favourite, Ballyburn, ticks many of the trends boxes. He won the Turners Novices’ hurdle at an absolute canter at the Festival last year; he won last time out; and he is eight from ten in his career, and two from three over fences. His loss over fences came at Kempton in December when beaten a speedier Sir Gino over two miles. This race is at three miles which is uncharted territory for him, but with the ground as it is, the consensus is he has every chance of staying. He is well clear on Racing Post Ratings and Topspeed and he looks a solid favourite, albeit at a short price.

Second favourite Dancing City has been ultra consistent over both hurdles and fences. From a trends perspective, however, he has a few negatives to overcome. He is an 8yo, is French bred, and has yet to win at Cheltenham. That said, and to be fair, he has only raced here once when third in last year’s Albert Bartlett. A positive is that we know he gets the trip.

Third in the market is Better Days Ahead, an interesting contender from the Gordon Elliott yard. He won at the festival last year in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle (positive trend) and is two from three this year with his sole defeat being by a head two starts back at Leopardstown. He has only raced in very small fields over fences, and he will get that again here. A winner at the distance, there are no stamina concerns.

Gorgeous Tom has a few trends to overcome including finishing only fourth last time in the Grade 1 Drinmore at Fairyhouse (2m4f), but he was rattling home that day and would have won in a few more strides. He has to prove himself over the extra distance and, if he does, he could be seriously overpriced around 12/1. If there had been eight runners, he would have been my each way pick along with my win selection below.

Brown Advisory Chase Recent Winners

Brown Advisory Chase Pace Map

Ballyburn may make his own running but will perhaps more likely sit behind a stablemate (Lecky or Quai).

Brown Advisory Chase Selection

Ballyburn is a short price and generally I’m not a short odds player. However, I think he is a 10/11 maybe even 5/6 chance, and he is still odds against in a few places which I think represents value.

Suggestion: Back Ballyburn at odds against.

Matt's Tix Pix: Ballyburn on A, and a couple of alternates on B

2.40 Coral Cup (Handicap, Grade 3, 2m5f)

Previewed by David Massey.

The Coral Cup is one of my favourite races of the week to tackle, as there are some trends that can help us try and find the winner, but equally you’ve a chance of hitting something at a big ol’ price. Four of the last seven winners have gone off 20/1 or bigger, with 33/1 Heaven Help Us and 50/1 Commander Of Fleet among them, so this is a race that can throw up proper shocks.

It used to be the case that backing those towards the top end of the handicap lost money on a regular basis, but since the handicaps became more compressed that is no longer the case. The first five home last year all carried 11st or more, and the angle of a class dropper, despite having to carry a big weight, is one that should not be overlooked.

Ballyadam is a perfect case in point. He’s a Festival regular, having finished fifth in the 2023 County Hurdle (under 11-7) and then second to the, ahem, rejuvenated Langer Dan in this under the welter burden of twelve stone last year. He often mixes it at levels with the best of them, but can clearly operate when asked to give weight away to inferior horses despite age catching up with him. He’s lightly raced for a ten-year-old, and looks sure to give another good account of himself. A drop of rain Wednesday morning (some is forecast) would help his cause, too.

Just underneath Ballyadam on the racecard is Eagle Fang, and I’ve long thought he could be the type to go well in a race such as this. He was one of the picks of the paddock for the Fred Winter last year but blew out, Philip Enright going round the inside on heavy ground probably not helping his cause. I made him one to follow all the same and it didn’t take long for that faith to be repaid, when he came good at a big price at Punchestown in May.

He lost nothing in defeat to Home By The Lee in Grade 2 company at Navan in November and, off the back of that, connections tried their luck in the Grade 1 Long Walk at Ascot. Having looked like he might get involved for the places at one point his stamina rather gave way, and the combination of that and Grade 1 company ultimately proved too much. Nevertheless, he was only beaten nine lengths and on the figures had taken another step forward. It’s worth bearing in mind Oakley Brown was unable to claim his 5lb allowance there, which he will be able to do here, and having had a bit of a break since Ascot is no bad thing either. The worry is that a mark of 147 looks a touch too high so, for all I think he’ll run well, others make a shade more appeal.

At the front end of the market you simply cannot ignore Impose Toi, given Nicky Henderson’s record in the race (four winners) and owner JP McManus, notwithstanding that he throws plenty of darts at this, has had the winner three times and numerous others placed in the race. Impose Toi dotted up here (over two miles) a couple of seasons ago and at that stage all sorts of fancy entries were bandied about. He ran to a very similar level in two subsequent starts in hot handicaps. We’ve only seen him the once this year, when winning with something to spare over 2m4½f at Newbury, and this strong-travelling sort looks just the type to go well here. Cheekpieces go on, which I think is neither here nor there (it isn’t the negative it used to be perceived as in this race) and he has to go well, I feel.

And where is the daft each-way fiver at a silly price going? Look no further than Lossiemouth (not that one, the other one), a former Grade 2 winner for Tom Lacey who has come back from a long absence this season to run perfectly well for Polly Gundry in three competitive handicap hurdles, all around three miles. Now, I’m not totally convinced he stays that far, and this drop back in trip could be just what the doctor ordered. He shapes as if he retains most of his ability and a mark of 133 is fair and reflects where we are with him at present. He’ll be ignored in the market, but it would be no surprise to me if he hit the frame here.

Coral Cup Recent Winners

Coral Cup Pace Map

Loads of pace, headed by Maxxum and 'the other' Lossiemouth. Cards played late may be the answer tactically.

Coral Cup Selection

Impose Toi looks like he ought to go close and, at monster prices, 'the other' Lossiemouth could give a run for each way money. Bag the extra places where you can.

Suggestion: Back Impose Toi to win at 9/1, and/or Lossiemouth each way at 40/1 or bigger.

Matt's Tix Pix: LOTS on A, and quite a few on B!

3.20 Glenfarclas Chase (Cross Country, Class 2, 3m6f)

Previewed by Matt Tombs.

The Cross Country reverts to being a handicap after eight renewals as a level-weights race, albeit it is now a 20lb limited handicap rather than the full 26lb.

The key to betting on the Cross Country is understanding the nature of the course. At Punchestown and Pardubice the cross-country tracks pre-date the conventional tracks but at Cheltenham it had to be shoehorned into the middle of the existing conventional courses in the 1990s.

The consequence is that the Cheltenham cross-country course is extremely tight and sharp. There are very few opportunities to gallop until the business end. As such, the skillset needed is to be able to negotiate the variety of obstacles, keeping on an even keel and then an ability to quicken when the sprint starts.

In consequence, they go slowly for much of the race and so it’s much easier for the classy horses to give the weight away. Three of the 11 renewals as a 26lb handicap were won by the top-weight – and that was when the race was contested by lower quality horses than it is today.

As a level-weights race it was dominated in recent years by ex-Grade 1 horses: if they took to the idiosyncratic test they had a huge advantage, outclassing the handicappers they were up against.

In the last five renewals if you’d applied a simple 1lb for 1 length approach, the winner would have won even if it had been a 20lb handicap. Given that it’s easier to give the weight away going so slowly, I think the top-weights are at an even bigger advantage than that ‘standard’ method suggests.

The question all season was who was going to realise that and continue to target their ex-Grade 1 horses at the race - and who was going to think that because it was a handicap they wouldn’t win and so wouldn’t run their ex-Grade 1 horses.

Gordon Elliott seems to have worked this out and, ground permitting, was always aiming Galvin at the race. He has won six of the last seven renewals and, whilst the fact it’s a handicap makes it harder for him, he is still the trainer to focus on. Gordon is 6/23 +3pt (15% ROI) so far. 13 of those 23 runners finished in the first three.

Even when it was a 26lb handicap the front of the market dominated – 8 of the 11 renewals were won by one of the first three in the market. Seven of the eight level-weights renewals did, too, and with much classier types in this than the old 2005-2015 handicap I’m expecting the front of the market to continue to dominate.

The ground was always going to be important. The Cross Country course doesn’t have the artificial drainage that the conventional tracks have but equally it’s harder to water. Cheltenham now can water it but there is only one race on it and they tend to do so sparingly to avoid fast ground rather watering for slow ground. As a result, it tends to ride more naturally. The weather gods have favoured Galvin with the ground due to be predominantly good to soft.

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Recent Winners

*Handicap up to 2015, conditions race 2016-2024, reverted to a handicap in 2025. Abandoned in 2024.

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Pace Map

This will be a jog then sprint affair, so the pace map is very much for information purposes only.

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Selection

Suggestion: Back Galvin at anything above 5/2.

Matt's Tix Pix: Galvin banker

4.00 Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1, 2m)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

The Champion Chase is the pre-eminent speed test for top class chasers but, this year, it's a race shorn of many of its likelier lads, due to injury, poor form or that pesky Ryanair Chase. One bona fide star that will get the green (and gold) light is Jonbon, whose eleventh hour withdrawal twelve months ago robbed the race - and racing fans - of its main protagonist.

In his absence, Henry de Bromhead swooped to conquer with 17/2 shot Captain Guinness. The Captain defends his crown but has been in far less authoritative form this time around. Still, a glance at the Recent Winners section below attests to the folly of discounting a de Bromhead runner in the QMCC: he also won the race in 2021, 2017 and 2011. Guinness may be on many revellers' minds on Wednesday afternoon, but it's far more likely they're pondering another pint of the black stuff than a punt on a horse whose best run of three this term was a 26 length pasting by Solness.

Henry also runs Quilixios, a slightly bigger price even than Captain Guinness. A confirmed front runner, the former Triumph Hurdle winner is unlikely to have it all his way on the sharp end with, most notably, Solness expected to vie for early primacy. But his run behind Jonbon at Sandown in December's Tingle Creek gives him only a large hill, rather than a mountain, to climb to beat the fav.

We really ought to discuss Jonbon. Trained by Nicky Henderson, who saddled the Champion Chase winner in 1992, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2018 and 2019, a Jonbon victory would make him the outright winningmost trainer in the history of the race; and his lad is a shade of odds on to do it.

On any of a number of runs from this season and last, he is the best horse in the race. His jumping is usually assured, his run style is versatile and he has no ground allergies. So why isn't he shorter in the market? Well, come the hour and he might be; but, to this point, there have been murmurings of a Cheltenham issue as well as the fact that the Champion Chase has been a bridge too far for a plethora of shorties in recent times.

El Fabiolo, at 2/9, was the latest strong favourite to succumb last year, and was preceded by Shishkin (5/6) in 2022, Chacun Pour Soi (8/13) in 2021, Defi Du Seuil (2/5) in 2020, Douvan (2/9) in 2017, Un De Sceaux (4/6) in 2016, Sizing Europe (4/5) in 2012, Master Minded (4/5) in 2010, Well Chief (Evs) in 2007, Moscow Flyer (5/6) in 2004 and Flagship Uberalles (11/10) in 2000. Holy hotpots!

It should be said that 6/5 Energumene, 4/11 and Evs Altior, 1/4 Sprinter Sacre and 4/11 Master Minded all got it done in the same time window and it's well worth noting that three of that quintet were trained by Henderson. Only Shishkin from the 'naughty' list was sent from Seven Barrows.

Jonbon is a bit of a machine. He's won 17 of his 20 races, and been second on the other three occasions. Perhaps he's another to bet with the 'money back as free bet if second' concession with the tote. The three defeats were by a superlative Constitution Hill in an awe-inspiring Supreme in 2022; a rampant El Fabiolo (before that one lost the plot) in the Arkle of 2023; and - the only downright disappointment - in the re-routed Clarence House Chase last year (Ascot was unraceable so the race was staged at Cheltenham - Jonbon was beaten a neck at 1/4).

After a quiet but winning seasonal debut this campaign, the green and gold silks have sauntered to success twice more - both at Grade 1 level - and he just looks a man amongst veterans and juniors.

Energumene commands great respect as a two-time winner of the race, in 2022 and 2023 aged 8 and 9; but he missed the gig last year and is 11 now. True, that didn't stop Moscow Flyer rolling back the years when claiming his second Champion Chase in 2005 but the Flyer entered as the best horse in the race and was returned 6/4 favourite. Energumene is no longer the best in the field. Still, he's an 11-time winner from 14 starts and may have degenerated insufficiently to miss the podium.

A few of the Irish contenders have incestuous form lines. Solness came out on top, ahead of Marine Nationale, Quilixios and Captain Guinness in the Dublin Chase at DRF: having led from early in the race, he established a big advantage which was all but erased by MN approaching the last. But the runner up found less than anticipated while the winner found more than might have been expected. They were clear of the remainder. I do have a suspicion that Quilixios may have been under-cooked and also may have raced on the worst of the ground up the inner, where his rivals pretty much all took the high road close to the outer rail.

Prior to February's Dublin Chase, Solness had also beaten Marine Nationale by a similar margin in the Leopardstown Grade 1 at Christmas. There, Found A Fifty ran no sort of race and was pulled up. However, the last named was reported by the vet to have a dirty nose post-race rendering his effort a 'chuck out'. Earlier in the season, Found A Fifty had beaten Solness in the G2 Fortria Chase and had won over two and a half miles a fortnight prior in another Grade 2, that one on good ground.

Going back a little further, Gordon Elliott's charge got closest to a fully on song Gaelic Warrior in the Arkle at Cheltenham a year ago; so he handles quicker ground, has performed well at the Festival, and has two wins prior to a run that can be discounted from his three 2024/5 spins. He may be over-priced.

Beyond Jonbon, British hopes rest with Libberty Hunter. He was second in the G2 Game Spirit Chase at Newbury last month and has good Cheltenham handicap form on top of the ground. But this is a much bigger ask than handicaps for all that he was third in the Grade 1 Maghull at Aintree last spring.

Champion Chase Recent Winners

Champion Chase Pace Map

Quilixios and Solness, probably the latter, will go forward. Jonbon should sit just off that tempo with the rest expected to be more patiently ridden.

Champion Chase Selection

There is a weighty body of men (and women) who sailed to their wagering end due to the siren calls of short priced Champion Chase jollies, but some people never learn. Jonbon is clear of his field on any critical analysis of the form book and he looks a square enough price at close to even money as I write. That's obviously not a sexy price so each way alternatives are worth considering. I'm apprehensive of the Solness/Marine Nationale collateral, but appreciate I could have that wrong. Still, I don't want to bet something at 5/1 or so against what I think is a very solid favourite. Far better to have a tiny swing, either e/w or without the favourite, on either or both of Found A Fifty and/or Quilixios. Not much damage done if we miss at those sorts of prices.

Suggestion: Back Jonbon with the tote's 'money back as a free bet if second', and consider Found A Fifty or Quilixios in the 'without' and each way markets.

Matt's Tix Pix: Jonbon 'A' banker.

4.40 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3, 2m)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno. A key feature of the Grand Annual is that it is a kinder race for prominent racers, whereas the stiffer New Course was a benefit for hold-up horses. This is evident in the 'Recent Winners' section below where, prior to 2014, hold up horses were the de facto play; but since then, it's been the front half of the field (and a few midfielders) which has held sway. Le Prezien's 2018 score from off the pace is a helpful reminder that nothing is assured when shortlisting, but the balance of favour has very much been to those with more behind than in front through the early fractions.

A glance at the 'Form' column below shows that recent winning form is not a prerequisite, and nor is a recent run. Ratings wise, most winners were between 136 and 147, give or take, and that's an area on which to focus.

Looking for those within the ratings band and who are generally ridden in the front half of the field, I'm left with Unexpected Party, Fringill Dike, The King of Prs, and Traprain Law.

Unexpected Party won the race by daylight last year and is only 6lb higher this time around. He represents the 'Dead-eye Dan' Skelton barn who have been so successful in Cheltenham Festival handicaps in recent years, and may go close again. Expect him to race more prominently than in recent outings: he was near the speed when galloping away from them twelve months ago.

Gavin Cromwell is another handler for whom the handicaps have been a rich source of joy, and he's represented by The King Of Prs (and also My Mate Mozzie and Midnight It Is). The King best fits my tenuous shortlist bill though form of 231 this season has done little to mask his level of ability. He ran in the race last year but couldn't go the early tempo and made mistakes before falling, all of which tempers enthusiasm considerable.

JP McManus likes to have a swing at this. As well as four winners in the past two decades, McManus has owned fully nine runners up (thanks to Paul Ferguson and his Weatherby's Cheltenham Festival Trends Guide for this cracking snippet). The green and gold livery will be singularly sported by So Scottish this season. Second to Stayers' Hurdle-bound The Wallpark in a Listed handicap hurdle on yielding ground at the Galway Festival last summer - two poorer efforts since - he's not run over fences since December 2023, when he fell in the December Gold Cup. He's obviously a strong stayer and connections, including trainer Emmet Mullins, are hugely respected; but this would be a fine training performance were he to win.

Since 2009 there have been nine Grand Annual winners returned 16/1 or bigger, including 66/1, 40/1 and 28/1 twice. In that spirit, I'm returning to my shortlist and Fringill Dike and Traprain Law. Fringill Dike is a good ground specialist, typically races prominently and comes here well rested; true, he may be overly well rested and we have to take fitness on trust. To that end, form off a 100+ day absence over obstacles reads 112 which helps keep the faith. He's won five of his nine chases and he's 66/1 - that makes him worth a very small each way guess.

Traprain Law hails from the Lucinda Russell yard that knows how to win staying handicap chases at the Festival. Whether she can repeat the dose over a 'sprint' trip is a different question, of course, but she may have a better chance than the market implies with this second season chaser. He's a perennial prominent racer and has sometimes appeared to be outpaced in the latter stages of his races; perhaps this expected much faster tempo will run the finish out of his rivals?

Since 2014, the last time out finishing position of Grand Annual winners, as a form string, reads 94P08212309. That may (or may not) be another nod to So Scottish, whose claims are obviously not obvious, if you see what I mean.

Grand Annual Recent Winners

Grand Annual Pace Map

Licketty split, no doubt. Expected to favour those in the first half to two-thirds of the field over the very late runners. Unless they go an absolute million. Which they might.

Grand Annual Selection

The 2025 Grand Annual is, as always, a very difficult puzzle to solve. In that spirit, I'll try one from the top and two massive Hail Mary's. So Scottish is as much about his connections as his recent form; but delving further back would make him attractively handicapped in his own right. If we're to have another 'skinner winner' it might be one of Traprain Law or Fringill Dike, both of which seem well enough suited to the test with the important proviso that they might not be nearly good enough! They're worth 50p e/w to find out, though.

Suggestions: Try a small win bet on 10/1 So Scottish and even smaller each way bets on 25/1 Traprain Law and 66/1 Fringill Dike with all the extra places you can muster.

Matt's Tix Pix: Spreading out across A and B

5.20 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1, NH Flat, 2m 1/2f)

Previewed by Paul Jones.

Willie Mullins had been quieter than usual on the bumper scene up until the Dublin Racing Festival since which he has fired in three rockets and inherited another, and has five runners in total, so he is short odds to add to his current haul of 13 wins in the race.

Significantly in a race restricted to 4-6yos, 11 of his successes were with 5yos (and he only got one of his two winning 6yos from Gordon Elliott a fortnight before Cheltenham) so as a 6yo that slightly puts me off Gameofinches, though Fact To File was the same age when second two years ago.

Patrick Mullins has chosen Copacabana instead so Paul Townend is on Gameofinches. A speed figures guru who I respect, Andy Holding, has Copacabana with the lowest time figure of the whole field so I’m struggling to be with him at the prices given that he is favourite, even if Ruby Walsh has been talking him up as the one that he likes of the Mullins runners for the last fortnight. He can win of course but it will be a very different tempo of race to the one that he won at Navan.

Relegate caused a surprise here eight years ago following up her win in the Grade 2 mares’ bumper at the DRF and BAMBINO FEVER is trying to do likewise.

Ratings are usually overlooked when discussing the Champion Bumper as punters seem to prefer the whispers but they shouldn’t be. With her mares’ allowance, although only the perceived third choice of Mullins’ quintet, she is joint-top rated on BHA figures. That’s interesting as eight of the last 22 winners were top rated by BHA (if including a mares’ allowance), including five of the last ten and most of them didn’t start favourite. We had two joint-top rated contenders in 2022 and they finished 1-2.

At the top of those ratings we have Kalypso’Chance (130) and Bambino Fever (130) ahead of Aqua Force (127) who has recently moved to Mullins so they have done very little with him to make a difference, Idaho Sun (126) as the best of the Brits for Harry Fry, Fortune De Mer (125), Gameofinches (124), Copacabana (123), He Can’t Dance (123), Sortudo (123) and Heads Up (123).

Jody Townend rode Bambino Fever at the DRF and keeps the ride. Patrick was never in line to ride as would struggle to do the weight so he didn’t reject her.

Gordon Elliott prepared Sir Gerhard before he was switched late on to Mullins and had the second and third last year to add to his two wins in the race and, with Windbeneathmywings ruled out for David Pipe last week, he provides the main market rival to Team Mullins in Kalypso’Chance who beat Heads Up at Navan in a bumper where Elliott has run some of what turned out to be his very best horses down the years. It niggles me though that after he won Elliott hinted he had a better one.

As highlighted earlier, the main home hope has to sit it out so that mantle is now transferred to No Drama This End according to the market: he beat a well-fancied Skelton horse at Warwick. Nicholls doesn’t mind having a shy at the Champion Bumper but the closest that he has got was Captain Teague who was third two years ago. The last time the Brits won was with Ballyandy nine years ago.

The Skelton team have been talking up Fortune De Mer who won at Cheltenham earlier this season and was then beaten under a penalty on a sharp track last time and they know the time of day with their bumper team so he could be best of the Brits.

In summary, at around 13/2 I like Bambino Fever’s chances of becoming the third mare to win in nine years from limited representation.

Champion Bumper Recent Winners

Champion Bumper Pace Map

Pinch of salt pace map...

Champion Bumper selection

In summary, at around 13/2 I like Bambino Fever’s chances of becoming the third mare to win in nine years from limited representation.

Suggestion: Back Bambino Fever each way

And that's a wrap on Day 2. My thanks again to the five judges who have kindly shared their thoughts. Remember, the value game is not about a winner a race but a profit at the end of the year - let's hope also at the end of this week!

Good luck!

Matt

Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day One Preview, Tips

10 March 2025/in Cheltenham Festival Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

Cheltenham Festival 2025: Day One Preview, Tips

We're back! The 2025 Cheltenham Festival is here and, for those of us who have found patience for its arrival difficult, the great news is it starts ten minutes earlier! Yes, it's a 1.20pm kick off each day, moved from the traditional half-one slot, so don't tune in late...

After the success of recent big meeting previews, where the races have been divvied among a brains trust of racing judges, I'm joined by some estimable company for this year's Cheltenham Festival preview posts. They are:

Rory Delargy, a man who has forgotten considerably more than I'll likely ever know about the winter game. Alongside Ruby Walsh, he's a contributor to the Cheltenham Paddy Podcast; and is one half of sportinglife's Racing Consultants as well as a regular correspondent for the Irish Field. He's a long-time friend of geegeez, having penned articles occasionally here for a decade and more.

David Massey is the other half of Racing Consultants and our own 'Roving Reporter'. In his Trackside guise, he is a regular at most of the major meetings, casting an expert eye (two, actually) across the paddock discerning those ready to go and those for whom improvement can be expected another day.

Dave Renham is our resident number-cruncher-in-chief, diving deeply into the data for your delectation every midweek. This is a maiden spin for Dave in the geegeez race preview fold and I'm excited to read his contributions.

Paul Jones is Mr Original Cheltenham Festival Guide, having authored that venerable tome from its inception in 2000 up until 2015. More recently he's been running his own premium service and, as well as racing, is a recognised expert on the Eurovision Song Contest amongst other specialisms. Paul has just finished ghost authoring Gary Wiltshire's new book, Fifty Years in the Betting Jungle, which is available here.

Matt Tombs is a second trends legend, taking up the Weatherby's Cheltenham Festival Guide mantle from Paul in seamless fashion. In recent years, Matt too has focused on his private service, though he can still be found articulately sharing his considered data-driven opinions on the Matchbook podcast and website.

They are all extremely welcome (back) to geegeez. Unfortunately for you, dear reader, you'll be lumbered with my thoughts for the remaining two races each day. Well, you can't have everything, can you?

Also, a quick reminder about our Tix competition where you can win £100 each day. Full details are in this post, including the rules, but basically the person who gets the highest odds winning ticket wins. That means it's a level playing field for small and large stakes players so everyone has the same chance of winning. Tix is here.

Let's get to it. Remember, it's a one-TWENTY start; do not oversleep.

1.20 Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

The traditional curtain raiser. The roar of the crowd. It's become cliché to mention the roar but, if you've ever been on the side of that hill some time in the middle of the hour after 1pm, you'll know it's a real, almost palpable, spirit that manifests: 55,001+ individual exhortations merging into a single raucous cheer. Part relief that the waiting is over, part hope for what might come next, all expectation of a thrilling carnival of the horse... and they're off!

Hardly surprising, then, that in such a frenzied cauldron cool heads - whether connected above two or four legs - are tricky to find. Including the preliminaries, this is a twenty minute test of temperament as much as class, speed, agility and staying power. It is a thoroughly searching examination.

So who, and which, present themselves to the trial this time? In what is an almost exclusively Irish affair in 2025, with just two home challengers (one of those a triple digit price), in theory that makes assessing the form easier; there is no need to guess which of the cohorts separated by the Irish Sea might be ascendant. Here, at least, it will be the Irish on top. And yes, probably more generally so, too. Probably, but not definitely...

Current head boy is Kopek Des Bordes, unbeaten in three and rampant in a Grade 1 when last seen. On the bare form of that Dublin Racing Club score he's a few pounds ahead of the next best, for all that he'll likely need to find a little more to withstand the onslaught of this field, all of which are entitled to improve. That's the nature of races like the Supreme, as different from more workaday contests: it's not enough to know which horse has shown the best form so far - we must project to which might step forward the most under these conditions.

Think of it like this: Kopek Des Bordes begins the race with a few lengths' head start over the next most talented horse - on what we've seen to date let's call that one Romeo Coolio. Romeo in turn gets a couple of lengths on Salvator Mundi who is himself a couple in front of William Munny and Workahead. It's a staggered ability start.

But during the course of four minutes or so of racing much can change. Advantages can be whittled or extended, and as they collect beyond the jam stick at the top of the hill there will be a revised pecking order at least somewhere on the squash ladder.

Let's return to KdB. Yes, he was imperious at Leopardstown and, if your modus operandi is not to question but merely to punt in tune with the market, he's very likely to give you a stirring run for your rupees. But the value seeker has to furrow her brow, stroke his chin and scratch its head as she/he/it considers how each horse might get beaten, and how likely it is that they will be, before settling on a wager at the prevailing odds. For a majority of runners in all races, the most likely reason they'll be beaten is because they are not good enough. But that's not the only bullet to dodge.

Kopek Des Bordes is trained by Willie Mullins, a man with seven victories in this race, the first two of which returned 25/1 and 40/1. But those were in 1995 and 2007, and Willie is a little bit better known these days. His five subsequent winners, achieved between 2013 and 2021, all returned 6/1 or shorter and were all ridden by the first string jockey. So far, so Kopek - he certainly won't be beaten because of his connections.

But this fella has shown signs of immaturity in the past. On his first run this season, on St Stephen's/Boxing Day at Leopardstown, he over raced early and was clumsy at every single flight. He still won, comfortably, in a big field containing some smart novices. Perhaps it was just freshness after his summer layoff, and greenness on his first public hurdles outing.

He returned to that same venue five weeks later and was a new man, nearly. Still a little keen for much of the race, his jumping had been transformed and he was alert enough to dodge a loose horse crossing his path as it ran out. In the finish he laughed at this Grade 1 gang, many of which appeared credible contenders pre-race. It was a terrific performance and one that promises more when he learns to settle better.

If he is headstrong, he'll need to cope with a first trip outside Ireland; and with the Festival preamble, rarely more of a test than for the opening race; and with the anxiety of his rider down at the start (even the most experienced and calmest of pilots gets dem buttyflies circling by the tape). Frankly, he's expended so much nervous energy in his first two hurdle races without facing a serious challenge in the run to the line that expecting a boilover to change the result might be wishful thinking. But if there is a chink in his armour, that's the prime suspect.

Who else? What about Romeo Coolio? Trained by Gordon Elliott, who tends to swerve the DRF with his A listers, Romeo was second in the Champion Bumper here last year (travelling, check) and won the Grade 1 Future Champions Novices' Hurdle at Christmas (class, check). He's also shown form on soft through to good to yielding turf (going, check). It was a taking performance in slamming Bleu De Vassy by nine lengths in the G1 but the horses he beat were thumped by Kopek Des Bordes over the same track and trip in February. He looks reliable but perhaps hasn't got quite the upside of the favourite. And the former Deloitte Hurdle that Kopek won has a much better track record in Supreme terms than the Future Champions.

Salvator Mundi has had a tall reputation ever since chasing home Sir Gino in France, both horses subsequently purchased by the Donnelly's. He ran a midfield race on his UK debut, in the Triumph Hurdle no less, and didn't race in Ireland until May of last year when he picked up a maiden hurdle in a field of 13 by... checks notes... 62 lengths! It's fair to say that was an extremely moderate contest in this context so what happened next? Salvator went to Punchestown for the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer in mid-January and won by three lengths. His performance there - pulled hard, jumped poorly - was reminiscent of Kopek Des Bordes' seasonal debut; if he can improve a similar amount, in form and comportment terms, he's clear second best and has a chance to derail his more illustrious stablemate. If.

The last two winning trainers in the race were Henry de Bromhead and Barry Connell, both of whom have had the horrible misfortune to be touched (or in Henry's case, gripped) by tragedy in recent years. De Bromhead bids to repeat last year's success with the unexposed Workahead. Winner of a point on his debut in January 2023 (form has some substance), he was off then until early December last year when running third in a huge field behind Jasmin De Vaux. He came on for that effort in clearing away, by seven lengths from William Munny, in a maiden at Christmas.

William Munny, representing Connell, whose 2023 winner Marine Nationale was ridden by the late Michael O'Sullivan, so tragically lost and in whose memory the race is now named, has run twice since defeat to Workahead: a close second to the now injured Kawaboomga and then an easy win in Listed company last month. Neither of those runs quite match up to Workahead's performance in beating him, and Henry's horse has much the greater scope to improve. The 75 day layoff is a bit of a concern but de Bromhead knows what he's doing when it comes to the Cheltenham Festival.

We're getting into the longer grass now with the likes of Irancy and Karbau, Mullins 'also engaged' types. Both are unexposed albeit with a more ordinary level of form, and neither make much appeal given Willie's first string record in this race.

Closest to Kopek Des Bordes at Leopardstown was Karniquet, who I quite fancied for the County Hurdle. Instead, he's been declared here and, though I bet him months ago, I'm behind the current price and don't fancy him one bit in this company. Funiculi Funicula is the final string to Willie's hirsute bow and he comes here off a Clonmel maiden score, which is like getting going from the springboard at your local baths to cliff diving in Mexico: good luck with that project.

There are two home contenders, comfortably the more likely of the duo being Tripoli Flyer. He was a good winner of the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices' at Kempton a couple of weeks ago, form that is solid but not spectacular. Connections initially suggested he'd miss the Cheltenham party, but here he is and it feels a bit of an afterthought. Likeable chap all the same. Tutti Quanti and Henry's other runner, Sky Lord, might need to start now to have a winning chance.

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Pace Projection

More Willie's out front than an am dram production of Hot Fuzz.

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Selection

This revolves around Kopek Des Bordes. He seems sure to be on the premises assuming he doesn't boil over and he might be almost (almost!) a bet to nothing with the 'money back (as free bet) if second' books. A value alternative is Workahead, lightly raced but with very good form in the book already. He jumps well, looks a strong stayer and has the scope to step forward a fair bit.

Suggestion: Back Kopek Des Bordes with the 'money back if second' concession. And/or try Workahead each way at 8/1 or bigger.

Matt's Tix Pix: Tix is a smart multi-race bet placement tool that is free to use. In this race, I'll have the favourite on A and a couple of alternatives, as well as unnamed favourite on B.

You can find Tix here.

There are guaranteed £750,000 daily placepot pools, and you can play with stakes as low as a penny.

Each day of the Cheltenham Festival, you can win £100 in our best stake-to-return Tix competition. Check out the Tix comp rules here >

2.00 Arkle Challenge Chase (Grade 1, 2m)

Previewed by Paul Jones.

I have not been able to find an Arkle bet all season.

And I’m still struggling, with Majborough being a strong favourite that is hard to oppose after impressing in both chase starts this season, and also having already won at the Festival when taking last season’s Triumph. Some will point to no five-year-old having won the Arkle since the weight allowance was eradicated but none of those since Voy Por Ustedes were in Marlborough’s class and he won a four-year-old championship despite Mullins stating he looked more like a three-mile chaser. He looks correctly priced at 4/7 to finally give J P McManus a first Arkle winner and Willie Mullins his seventh in 11 years.

So, I have been waiting for a 'without Majborough' market to emerge for some inspiration for a bet and we have just four to choose from (would have been three but for the jettisoning of the Turners). They are headed by L’Eau Du Sud who is 4-4 over fences including landing the Grade 1 Henry VIII and two Grade 2s at Warwick and here over course and distance.

And that Cheltenham win was where I thought he jumped the best of his four wins. I doubt he was fully wound up at Warwick where he won the race early after kicking on five out. Too early as it turned out as Rubaud almost caught him, that one having won the Pendil since, so I’m fancying Harry Skelton to hold L’Eau Du Sud up this time and ride him to have one go at Majborough; that is also the best way to ride him if they want to guarantee good prize money for the Trainers’ Championship and David Power Cup which is also in their minds. I’m sure Dan left plenty to work on fitness-wise in the Kingmaker.

Personally, I think the best chance they have of beating Majborough is to sit on his outside and put the jolly’s jumping under pressure, as he made niggly errors at three fences down the back straight and there are two extra fences to be jumped in the Arkle over a sharper test of speed and a shorter race. Will they do that, or prefer to ride him patiently and pounce late?

I fancy that Jango Baie is a better horse than L’Eau Du Sud but can he be as effective as the grey over two miles? Without a doubt, he’d be in the Turners over 2m4f if that race still existed. A Grade 1 winning novice hurdler rated 8lb higher than Dan Skelton’s charge over hurdles, he too jumped Cheltenham very well when winning in December, and the runner-up Springwell Bay is now rated 154 after winning since so two big ticks there. Narrowly beaten by Handstands last time in sticky ground, where Nico was kind of looking after him with the spring in mind, even over two miles I’d expect him to improve on that effort. Can he give Nicky Henderson an eighth win in the race?

Touch Me Not is expected to make the pace but having been beaten by L’Eau Du Sud at Sandown by 3¾l (made a bad mistake at half-way though didn’t lose much momentum) and Majborough at Leopardstown by 9l, it’s hard to make an argument why he can cause an upset and many would rather see him in the Grand Annual instead. On a literal line through him, Majborough has over 5l in hand over L’Eau Du Sud.

More interesting of the two outsiders is Only By Night with her 7lb mares’ allowance, which Put The Kettle On took advantage of to win the 2020 Arkle. She would be half the odds (or even more) if running in the Mares’ Chase so this is a bold move from her connections but they know she is fully effective at 2m whereas 2m4f wasn’t a guarantee on Friday. A fine jumper and a big, scopey mare, she has taken off for going chasing.

Arkle Recent Winners

Arkle Pace Projection

Touch Me Not will probably unwittingly make the pace for Majborough, with the likes of L'Eau du Sud expected to play later. It's possible Nico tries to use Jango Baie's stamina and goes for home mid-race.

Arkle Chase Selection

In short, all markets including the Without-fav market look bang on so I can’t find an Arkle bet. Sorry! Better luck tomorrow!

Suggestion: No bet.

Matt's Tix Pix: Maj banker on A, with some 'just in case' C cover.

2.40 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3 handicap, 3m1f)

Previewed by Dave Renham.

The Ultima is the first handicap of the meeting and in these types of races I use past race trends at Cheltenham as an important part of my narrowing the field process.

This is a race where British trainers have dominated, with no Irish winner since Tony Martin’s Dun Doire in 2006. However, the Irish are targeting the race more than they have done in the past having had seven runners in 2022 and eight last year. This year there are five Irish-trained entries with Malina Girl the shortest priced at around the 12/1 mark.

Looking at the British challenge Lucinda Russell won the Ultima in 2022 and 2023 with Corach Rambler. Prior to that she saddled four other runners, priced 20/1, 28/1, 16/1 and 25/1, finishing 4th, 4th, 5th and 6th respectively. This time, she runs Whistle Stop Tour and Myretown. The O’Neill yard have had three wins and four placed runners from 25 starters although their last win was back in 2014. Their sole entry this year is Crebilly. David Pipe, who runs King Turgeon, has also enjoyed three winners as well as the runner up in 2022.

Time to dig into other past trends.

23 of the last 25 winners finished in the first six last time out (LTO), with the two wins from those 7th or worse coming at a cost of 163 runners.

From a market perspective 19 of the 25 winners came from the top five in the betting, including 11 of the last 12.

56% of all runners have been Irish-bred yet they have provided the winner 84% of the time (21 times). Irish-breds have outperformed all other countries of breeding in the place market, too, hitting 22% compared with 15%.

Other positives include a LTO market rank in the top four of the betting, and having one to three career chase wins.

Looking at weight carried there is a roughly even split between the top half of the weights and the bottom half.

Age wise seven- and eight-year-olds have provided 64% of the winners from 46% of the runners so there would be a marginal preference for those compared to other ages.

The two that tick all of the main trends boxes are The Changing Man and Broadway Boy.

The Changing Man easily won a weak-looking renewal of the Reynoldstown last time but, more importantly for me, his previous three runs when second each time came in top notch handicaps. Detractors could argue why should he suddenly break that run of seconds in handicaps, but it is hard to see him out of the frame.

Broadway Boy is well fancied by the stable and this has been the target. Yes, he does have a couple of negatives – the 0 from 32 stable record in the race (last 25 years), and his disappointing run last time at Cheltenham. However, the yard has rarely had fancied runners in this race (just three sent off at single figure odds) and there were valid excuses for his most recent poor run. His other Cheltenham form is excellent, comprising three wins, a second and a third from five other starts. He likes to race up with the pace and so should stay out of trouble.

While discussing run style this race has seen hold up horses as the most successful group in the past 25 years. However, in the more recent past the Ultima has seemingly started to favour prominent racers. The pace map is below.

The main competition for the lead with Broadway Boy looks likely to be in the shape of Myretown – hopefully they won’t take each other on too early.

Horses that join The Changing Man and Broadway Boy on my shortlist include Henry’s Friend. He ticks most of the trends and had a good win last time out. He jumps well and he should be close to the pace. Whistle Stop Tour also matches most of the trends and, as mentioned earlier, his trainer Lucinda Russell knows how to get her runners right for this one. A horse at a bigger price that I can see running well is Famous Bridge. He came fourth last year and, although 3lb higher now, his last run at Haydock was impressive albeit over further. With several bookies offering six places his price of around 18/1 offers each way punters an option.

My final piece of number-crunching is that, looking at the past 10 years, if backing all horses in the top five of the betting ‘blind’ one would have secured an ROI of 57% to SP and 78% to BSP. A good profit would have been achieved if backing all qualifiers to place on the exchange. You'll not be surprised, therefore, to see four of my shortlisted runners near the head of the market.

Ultima Recent Winners

Ultima Pace Projection

An even looking tempo overall, though a lot of perennially prominent racers may push things on from the start.

Ultima Handicap Chase Selection

Suggestion: Try Broadway Boy win only at 15/2

Matt's Tix Pix: A's and B's and not straying far from the top of the market.

3.20 Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m4f)

Previewed by Rory Delargy.

The race which has changed complexion most since confirmations is the Mares’ Hurdle, starting with the supplementary entry of William Hill (Schweppes for those over 55) Hurdle winner Joyeuse, followed by a surprise (to many) switch for Lossiemouth, who we’d been told was definitely on track for the Champion Hurdle; and, at the last minute, Golden Ace, definitely on track for this according to Jeremy Scott, jumped into the Champion Hurdle instead.

All that to-ing and fro-ing means the ante-post betting needs treating with caution, and if you’re worried that your pre-confirmations pick is now drifting, that’s only to be expected thanks to the influence Lossiemouth will have on the market. Whether she will have the same impact in the race is the big question, and my gut instinct was that switching her was a sign that Willie Mullins wasn’t happy enough with her wellbeing to think she could win or run well in a Champion Hurdle. If that’s the case it could be argued that she is too short, at around 4/6, for this race. Whatever race you’re running in at the Festival, you can’t afford to be short of your peak even if the ratings suggest otherwise.

The counterpoint to the above argument was put forward by Ruby Walsh on Paddy Power’s FTHM podcast on Sunday when he said the switch was simply a case of Paul Townend wanting to ride Lossiemouth. Had she run in the Champion, Townend would have ridden State Man, but he’d also rather ride Lossiemouth than Jade de Grugy in this race and hence the decision was made to switch target. You don’t have to believe that story, but it’s there for you to mull over in any case, having implications for the chances of both Lossiemouth and the original ante-post favourite.

Aside from the argument as to her wellbeing and how a heavy fall at Leopardstown last time will have affected her, there is also the debate about what Lossiemouth achieved 12 months ago. Beating Telmesomethinggirl, Hispanic Moon and Lantry Lady (beaten a total of 169 lengths in their four completed starts since) is not the performance it was cracked up to be at the time. She is a grand mare, but definitely a little overrated in some quarters, and her run behind Constitution Hill at Kempton is a fair guide to her ability. A repeat of that might be just enough to win this, but she doesn’t really appeal at her odds-on quote.

Jade de Grugy has undeniable form claims having won a Grade 1 as a novice, and she was visually impressive in winning the Quevega Hurdle at Punchestown on her belated return. I think there’s an element of recency bias in the way she’s been catapulted to the head of the market, and she has been shunned by Paul Townend which is hardly a boost to backers’ confidence. She is still a trifle short in the betting on balance based on the generic drift in the field when Lossiemouth was declared, although she may get bigger on the day. On the other hand, it’s not easy to make a strong case for the same connections’ Gala Marceau, who was disappointing at Warwick behind Royale Margaux, with a blunder two out incidental in the grand scheme.

Joyeuse was supplemented for this after winning the William Hill Hurdle impressively off a mark of 123, but even if you take the view she had a stone in hand that day she would still have something to find at this level, and it should be borne in mind that she had no other options at Cheltenham having failed to qualify for the handicaps.

July Flower has shown smart form in France, with the pick of her efforts a third in the French Champion Hurdle behind Losange Bleu and Hewick last May. She’s disappointed in two UK starts, pulling too hard, but settled better when winning on her return for Henry de Bromhead in the Grade 3 Kerrymount Mares’ Hurdle over an extended 2m3f at Leopardstown in late December, beating Kala Conti and Jetara by 4 lengths and 16 lengths, respectively.

July Flower was well ridden to score in the Kerrymount, Rachael Blackmore sitting a little way off the strong pace set by Lot of Joy and Jetara before closing up from halfway and expending her energy more efficiently than the leaders. Kala Conti was closer to that pace and made her bid for home earlier than ideal but was still only four lengths adrift of July Flower in second at the line. Kala Conti was conceding 5lb to the winner on the day, and I would rate her higher on the figures for that contest, as would most conventional handicappers.

The Leopardstown form looked good at the time and has been franked by subsequent black-type wins for Jetara and World of Fortunes, while Lot of Joy, beaten 48 lengths there, finished much closer to Jade de Grugy in the Quevega last month.

Mares' Hurdle Recent Winners

Mares' Hurdle Pace Projection

No obvious pace angle and it might be that Lossiemouth makes her own running to keep it simple and safe.

Mares' Hurdle Selection

If there is one mare who is unexposed and capable of improvement at this trip, it’s KALA CONTI, who was racing beyond 2m for the first time in the Kerrymount and arguably produced a career-best effort, although it’s worth pointing out that her defeat of Kargese and Nurburgring in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown last season is a pretty warm piece of form, as is finishing within half a length of Majborough in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile at the same track 13 months ago. Or even a second-place finish behind the much-vaunted Anzadam when carrying a 5lb penalty in the Grade 3 Willowwarm Hurdle earlier this season.

Gordon Elliott has not been shouting Kala Conti from the rooftops, but her form credentials are there in plain sight, and her price has consistently failed to reflect those claims, perhaps because she was expected in some quarters to head to the Coral Cup. At one stage, July Flower was 5/1 for this while Kala Conti was 25/1 and while the differential is smaller now, I would argue strongly that it’s Kala Conti who should be the shorter price of the pair. As such, she represents perhaps the best each-way value of the week in the Championship and quasi-championship races at the meeting.

Suggestion: Back Kala Conti each way at around 16/1.

Matt's Tix Pix: Lossie and Jade on A, plus a few B's here in search of a result, I think.

4.00 Champion Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Bisogno.

The highlight on day one is unquestionably the Champion Hurdle and, for what it lacks in quantity of runners, it more than compensates through their sheer quality. The last two winners of the race return and will be joined by a mare in receipt of seven pounds and who put up arguably the performance of the season. Let's get to the details.

The 2024 winner was State Man, a first since 2016 for Willie Mullins, and he defends his crown after a somewhat middling campaign by his own lofty standards. A narrow defeat to Brighterdaysahead on seasonal debut was perfectly reasonable and promised a step forward next time. However, while that first to second run improvement has been a feature of Mullins' top class team this term, State Man was thumped by 31 lengths at the hooves of the same mare when they reacquainted in the Neville Hotels Hurdle (G1). Between the pair, a length and a quarter ahead of State Man, was 10-year-old (now 11) Winter Fog, sent off at 66/1; and only a length and a half behind State Man was 200/1 shot Fils d'Oudairies.

The winning time was good but not great, and that all leads to me being pretty suspicious of the merit of the winner's performance: like the race time, I feel it was good but not great. Could it have been very tacky ground that day, favouring those on the speed and perhaps conditions State Man hated? Or was State Man just bang out of sorts. It's a stretch to believe that both horses ran their races and the mare's winning margin extended by more than thirty lengths!

Obviously, if you take that form literally - and at least one extremely good judge and former multiple top jockey at the meeting is doing just that - then you'd have to think Brighterdaysahead wins the Champion Hurdle. She had a pacemaker there and the same horse, King Of Kingsfield, will do her donkey work again here. I wasn't overly impressed with her jumping that day and we've not seen her since - though that's fairly typical for Gordon Elliott to skip the Dublin Racing Festival, the obvious stepping stone between Christmas and Cheltenham.

State Man did win last time, at the DRF, where he beat Daddy Long Legs (who?) by six lengths after Lossiemouth paid for a poor jump at top speed when she and State Man were having at it from the get go. The winner was entitled to tire after his early exertions, and his score would be considered hugely inefficient in sectional terms; still, sometimes you gotta win ugly if you wanna win (and sometimes you gotta write ugly if you wanna entertain - yuk). The victory did little for the winner's Champion Hurdle prospects bar knock a rival out of the reckoning and perhaps restore a touch of his shattered confidence. He's not been the same Man this season.

It's high time we introduced the top billing, Constitution Hill. Forced to miss last year's Blue Riband due to the ailment that struck the Seven Barrows yard of trainer Nicky Henderson, he's back and bouncing again this term. There's been plenty of chat about how he's 'better than ever', a claim which is both highly likely untrue and also completely moot. His form in winning four times, three of them Grade 1's, since his 2023 Champion Hurdle success has been at a notably lower - in the order of ten to 15 pounds - level. And yet it's still better than Brighterdaysahead's, barring that one 'too good to be true?' run.

Henderson's record in the race is peerless: his nine wins bests Willie's five, with Elliott yet to register. Moreover, Henderson had won four of the seven renewals between Annie Power's 2016 triumph and State Man's last year for the Closutton squad - a race in which the Brit had the clear favourite before his withdrawal.

This season Constitution Hill ran Lossiemouth off her legs early in Kempton's G1 Christmas Hurdle before that mare battled on gamely to go down by only two and a half lengths; and he then showed up for the G2 International Hurdle on Festival Trials Day at Cheltenham. That was essentially a regulation canter but proved his wellbeing, a sentiment affirmed by an excellent public workout at Kempton a couple of weeks ago. The 'vibes' then are strong with this one.

Burdett Road has been nine lengths behind Constitution Hill (bad blunder at the second last stopped him being a little closer) and was apparently outstayed by Golden Ace in the Kingwell last time. That mare, herself a Cheltenham Festival winner twelve months ago when beating Brighterdaysahead no less in a muddling Dawn Run Mares' Novices Hurdle, will need to travel at a much quicker tempo this time - but she's at least showing better form as the spring arrives. Her greater proven stamina ought to see her finish in front of Burdett Road again.

The rest are very unlikely to be good enough and any of them winning would be one of the shocks of all time at the Festival.

Champion Hurdle Recent Winners

Champion Hurdle Pace Projection

A slightly misleading pace map as King Of Kingsfield is expected to push the pace for ownermate Brighterdaysahead. Burdett Road is a customary forward goer, too.

Champion Hurdle Selection

A small field race between classy but largely exposed horses does not generally a value proposition make. This comes down to how highly you rate the performance of Brighterdaysahead in battering several of her Champion Hurdle rivals, notably State Man, in that Christmas Grade 1 at Leopardstown. Anything like a literal interpretation means she's the play for you. But she's not the play for me, except with Tote's generous 'money back as a free bet if second' offer. I can't have State Man on his form this season and will consider it one of Willie's finest achievements if he can pull this rabbit out of the hat.

No, it's Constitution Hill for me. I respect the mare, especially in receipt of 7lb (a concession I don't particularly respect in G1's), but I want to see the former heavyweight champion reclaim his belt. Betting wise he's not my sort of price but I have included him in a few 'muggy' accas.

Suggestion: Bet Brighterdaysahead with the tote 'money back as free bet if second' concession. I don't think she'll beat Constitution Hill, but if I've underestimated that demolition job last time then she looks just about a free hit against Constitution Hill. Call it an emotional hedge if you like: my heart is all in on Connie.

Matt's Tix Pix: Bank on Connie

4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3, 2m 1/2f)

Previewed by Matt Tombs.

The Hallgarten & Novum Wines Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Fred Winter, to you and me) is a tough race for juveniles, usually completely different from anything they’ve contested before.

One of the key attributes is experience. Whilst experience in lots of hurdles race helps, it can also show your hand to the handicapper. In France there is a three-year-old season in the spring and horses benefit from experience over time there. They learn at home as well as at the track and the early start horses get in France can be a big advantage.

Horses that began in National Hunt races in France are 8/88 for +59 (66% ROI).

Murcia has a good profile, then, having begun in France more than a year ago and racing four times by early June, after which she was sold to join Willie Mullins.

Her first run for Willie was in the Grade 2 at Leopardstown at Christmas where she bombed out, beaten 22l in 8th. However, Jeff Kidder (2021 Fred Winter winner) was last of seven, and Aramax (2020 winner) was well beaten when falling in that Grade 2.

Juveniles, even more so than older novices, can improve hugely through the season - or regress as they develop physically. It’s always as well to be cautious about form in the autumn and at Christmas, as it often gets reversed come the spring.

Not many Festival handicaps have a key trial as the conditions races often do. However, there is a rated hurdle at Naas in February which was run for the first time in 2017 and is building up a strong profile as a springboard for Fred Winter winners.

The previous eight renewals of the Naas race have produced four Fred Winter winners, three of which were doing the double. Overall, runners from it are 4/17 +26 (153% ROI), with 3 of the 13 losers placed. In addition, Lark In The Mornin was declared at Naas last year but became a non-runner on the day, before winning the Fred Winter. This very much looks the race used by top Irish yards to prep for the Fred Winter.

This year Murcia looked green and her jumping was novicey but she finished really strongly to be beaten just a neck. She will have to be much more professional if she is to cope with the hurly-burly of a 22-runner juvenile handicap where they tend to go a strong gallop for the quality of the race. There’s the risk that it’s all too much for her and she bombs out but the reward is that she is open to stacks of improvement if she can put it all together – connections seem to think she’ll love the drying ground.

Those four Naas runners won the Fred Winter off 125 (Jazzy Matty), 137 (Brazil), 138 (Aramax) & 139 (Band Of Outlaws). Murcia has a mark of 133 in Ireland and the BHA handicapper has added 3lb so she’ll be running off 136, very similar to three of the previous winners from the Naas trial.

Fred Winter Hurdle Recent Winners

Fred Winter Hurdle Pace Projection

Not a map to place too much store by, because many can be expected to adopt a different run style now they're actually doing their best!

Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle selection

Suggestion: Back Murcia at 10/1 or bigger (Matt Tombs)

Matt's Tix Pix: Five on A, and five more on B. At least!

Grab Your £4 Discount Here

5.20 National Hunt Novices' Handicap Chase (Grade 2, 3m 6f)

Previewed by David Massey.

Well, it’s a new look for an old Festival favourite this year, with the National Hunt Chase now a 0-145 handicap and not restricted to amateur riders anymore. As such, trends are hardly worth bothering with, although a trainer that’s had a few placed in the race before - David Pipe - has one here that just about heads my list up.

Gericault Roque has the look of one laid out for this. It seems almost ridiculous that a horse that finished second to Corach Rambler in the 2022 Ultima is still a novice, but here we are, seven runs later and no wins. But you can hardly argue with his form in big-field handicaps; second in a Mandarin, second in a Classic at Warwick, third in a Coral Gold Cup. It all stacks up.

He came back from a 26-month absence to run really well at Windsor 53 days ago. I was there on the day, my paddock notes reading “looks okay given the long absence, will come on but by no means unfit” and the way he ran in the race suggested those observations were close to the mark. He faded out of contention from two out but was far from disgraced in getting beaten less than ten lengths at the finish.

Wisely given time to recover from that run, he has the right profile for this and, with an extra place on offer, he looks a very solid each-way selection.

The winner of that Windsor race, Herakles Westwood, would be my back-up selection at the current prices. He’s always felt to me like a thorough stayer and, after the Windsor win, went to Newbury and confirmed that opinion by staying on all the way to the line over three miles, finishing third. I think a marathon distance could be right up his street, Harry Cobden in the saddle only a positive. I’ll throw a few quid at the forecast as well, just in case that’s the piece of form that unlocks this puzzle.

As far as the Irish contingent go, the race that the market believes will throw up the winner is the beginners' chase at Navan in January, won by the classy Three Card Brag with Captain Cody finishing third and Now Is The Hour fourth. Both runners headed here are unexposed over fences and, for a horse that was a Grade 2 winner over the smaller obstacles, Now Is The Hour looks to have a very workable mark off 139, with similar comments applying to Captain Cody off 140 (also a Grade 2 hurdles winner) - but I’m not telling you anything the market isn’t. Both will have been readied for this, and I couldn’t put you off.

November winner Transmission is another obvious one, with Neil Mulholland booking Patrick Mullins again (you did know you don’t have to book an amateur didn’t you, Neil?) but again, the market has him well found.

National Hunt Chase Recent Winners

NB This race was a non-handicap before 2025.

National Hunt Chase Pace Projection

National Hunt Chase Selection

The more I look at the race the more I think Gericault Roque is pretty much nailed on to run a good race, and he's my main selection. I also think he’ll be well-backed on the day, going off single figures, so anything 10/1 and up looks worth taking.

Selection: Back Gericault Roque each way at 10/1

Those are the seven head scratchers on Day 1 of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival and how our assembled panel of experts see them. As with punting more generally, it's got to be fun first, profit second (the two not being mutually exclusive, of course); so if you've enjoyed the read, you're a winner already!

Stay lucky
Matt

2025 Cheltenham Festival Prep

7 March 2025/in Cheltenham Festival Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

The Cheltenham Festival is almost upon us. For some it's just another race meeting, for many it's a special week in the racing calendar, and for a few it's Christmas and birthday rolled into one. Wherever you fit on that spectrum there are things about betting on Cheltenham that are different and that you ought to know. Those extend to what we're doing here on geegeez.co.uk, so let me share the plan for next week...

Daily Festival Previews

We'll have daily previews through the week covering all of the seven races each day. I'm delighted to say that I've got a crack squad of racing thinkers and writers to help you comb the form. They are:

Remember, it's a one-TWENTY start each day this year, so don't oversleep!

What else?

As well as those daily previews, we've a dedicated Cheltenham zone which you can access here. There you'll find the latest news and updates about the horses, trainers and jockeys associated with the Festival; full trends analysis from Andy Newton across the four days and 28 races; and links to the races themselves.

Gold subscribers will have access to pace maps, full form, video replay links, and our profiling tools, Instant Expert and Profiler. You can grab a weekly ticket for just £15 here.

Offers Galore

There will be offers galore throughout the week and one of the best chances to come out in front at the Cheltenham Festival is to press up any and all for which you're eligible. One of the very best that I'm aware of at this stage is Tote's 'Money Back as a Free Bet if Second' on all 28 races. So, for example, you could bet Kopek Des Bordes in the Supreme and get your stake reloaded if one horse beats him; or Brighterdaysahead in the Champion Hurdle and get a free bet if Constitution Hill does Constitution Hill things.

Obviously there will be races where your pick is neither first nor second, but this offer is one I'll be playing in almost all of the non-handicaps at least.

Geegeez' sister site, Tix, is a partner of Tote and I'm happy to mention their great deals for customers. If you don't yet have a tote account you can get one here. Then you'll be able to a) get their 'new account' goodness, b) play Tix and c) avail of the offer above.

N.B. You need to opt in to this offer which you can do from the 'Promotions' tab on tote's website.

Elsewhere, bet365 will have daily Super Boosts - one horse they think they can get beaten and on which they are prepared to offer a tempting price.

William Hill are offering players a free bet (stake varies) to use on Day 1.

And I expect all bookmakers to have something for at least some customers before Tuesday's action gets underway - so keep your eyes peeled.

Quick disclaimer: obviously, you need to read the terms and conditions for any offer you're wanting to avail of. Make sure to opt in where required, and only bet what you'd otherwise burn on beer, coffee or something else frivolous.

Daily Tix Competition: Win £100 each day!

If you're new around here, you may not know about Tix, a brilliant piece of tote multi-race software, I co-created. It basically allows for smarter perms on wagers such as the placepot, jackpot, Scoop 6, quadpot, and placepot 7. The short video below explains how it works:

We've teamed up with tote to offer a daily Tix competition across the four days of Cheltenham. You'll be entered when you place any Cheltenham multi-race bet through the Tix app, and there's £100 in cash each day to the player with the highest stake to return ratio.

What is a stake to return ratio? Well, it's basically the ticket odds, and it's a way of making the competition equally accessible to smaller and larger staking players.

Here are a couple of examples to illustrate how it will work:

Example 1: Ticket cost £1.20, ticket payout (return) £42.50

Stake to return ratio is 42.5/1.2 = 35.42

Example 2: Ticket cost £10, ticket payout (return) £180

Stake to return ratio is 180/10 = 18

In these scenarios, Example 2 returns more actual cash (£180 vs £42.50), and a bigger actual profit (£170 vs £41.30), than Example 1.

But Example 1 has the higher stake to return ratio (35.42 vs 18) and would therefore win the competition if these were the two entries.

A couple of rules.

In the event of a tie, the prize will be shared between all tied players. There are no tie breaker provisos.
Only bets placed via Tix on Cheltenham multi-race pools (placepot, jackpot, quadpot, Scoop6, placepot 7) will count.
The judge's (my) decision is final - I'm sure it won't come to that.
Prizes will be credited to winners' accounts on the morning following racing, e.g. Wednesday morning for Tuesday's winner(s).

What now?

Already on site, in our Cheltenham Festival Zone, are daily trends for all four days; some preview night notes and a further trends deep dive into the Gold Cup; a glut of latest news; and links to the 28 races. If you're a Gold or Lite subscriber, those races will have extra detail such as recent winners, pace maps, and form profiles. You can get Gold (or Lite) here.

I can't wait to get started!

Matt

Looking at Past Cheltenham Festival Trends

6 March 2025/in Cheltenham Festival Race Previews, Dave Renham/by Dave Renham

As I am penning this piece, the excitement for the upcoming Cheltenham Festival has gone up a further notch with the big days less than a week away, writes Dave Renham. In this article I will analyse some past Cheltenham race trends. Here on geegeez.co.uk we get specific race trends shared all year round with all the big races covered by Andy Newton. The Cheltenham Festival trends are available already for each day and can be accessed here.

Introduction

From 2007 to 2013 I wrote a weekly column on big race trends in the Racing & Football Outlook and over time got an excellent feel for which races suited past trends. Past race trends can be very good indicators of how a future race is likely pan out, and this is usually the case with the Cheltenham Festival. Many people use trends to help narrow down the field making the eventual selection process less daunting. If we can reasonably confidently eliminate say 50% of the field, then it drastically increases our chances of success. Obviously, there will be times when the race trends are ‘bucked’ where the winner does not fit the typical winner’s profile, but fortunately for many Cheltenham races this happens quite rarely.

For the main part of this piece, I will examine the last 20 renewals of the Gold Cup. I am going to first examine the ten Gold Cups held between 2005 and 2014 and then compare those findings with the Gold Cups from 2015 to 2024. After this I will be in a position to hopefully pick out the very strongest trends. I will also highlight some of the strongest trends from three other races at the meeting at the backend of the article.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends

So let's look at the blue riband race, the Gold Cup. From 2005 to 2014 these were the most powerful trends:

2005-2014 Gold Cup Trends

Market Factors: 2005-14

5 winning favourites from 10.

9 out of 10 winners came from the top three in the betting.

Horses with an SP of 8/1 or shorter produced 9 winners from 36 runners (25%); horses priced 17/2 or bigger produced one winner from 107 (0.9%).

Last Race Factors: 2005-14

7 of the 10 winners won last time out (LTO). Those seven winners came from 44 qualifiers (15.9%); horses that finished 2nd or worse LTO provided three winners from 99 (3%).

All of the 10 winners came from one of three tracks – Leopardstown, Newbury or Kempton. This equates to 10 wins from 65 (15.4%). Other courses combined were 0/78 (0%).

All of the 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter LTO. Those 10 wins came from 103 runners (9.7%). Those priced 17/2 or bigger were 0 wins from 40 (0%).

Racing in a Grade 1 race LTO produced seven winners from 47 (14.9%). Those racing in Grade 2 or lower were three wins from 96 (3.1%).

Other Factors: 2005-14

Horses that had won previously at the Cheltenham Festival produced five winners from 37 (13.5%). Those with no previous Festival win were 5/106 (SR 4.7%).

Horses with an Official Rating of 166 or more produced seven winners from 37 (18.9%); those rated 165 or less were 3/96 (3.1%).

In terms of age, 10yos or older were 0 from 40 (0%). Nine of the winners came from horses aged 7, 8 or 9.

Horses that had previously won at least once that season produced eight wins from 83 qualifiers (9.6%). Horses that had not scored that season won 2/60 (3.3%).

Conclusion: 2005-14

During this ten-year time frame, the Gold Cup was dominated by the front end of the betting market. 2014 was the outlier with a 20/1 winner in Lord Windermere and placed runners at 16/1 and 14/1. A win LTO was a plus as was an OR of 166+. All the winners came from either Kempton, Newbury or Leopardstown and all the winners were priced 8/1 or shorter on their previous start.

It was also preferable to have raced in Grade 1 company LTO, to have previously won at the Festival and to have won that season. In terms of age, it was best to avoid horses aged 10 or older.

Let's now compare the data from 2005 to 2014 with that for the most recent ten-year period, 2015-2024.

2015-2024 Gold Cup Trends

Market Factors: 2015-24

5 winning favourites from 10.

Seven out of 10 winners came from the top three in the betting (nine came from the top four).

Horses with an SP of 8/1 or shorter produced eight winners from 40 runners (20%); horses priced 17/2 or bigger produced two winners from 88 (2.3%).

Last Race Factors: 2015-24

Eight of the 10 winners won LTO. Those eight winners came from 59 qualifiers (13.6%); horses that finished 2nd or worse LTO provided two winners from 69 (2.9%).

Five of the 10 winners raced at Leopardstown LTO from 42 qualifiers (11.9%); Newbury LTO produced two winners from 10 (20%). Kempton LTO runners produced 0 winners from 16 (0%). All other courses combined were three wins from 60 (5%).

All of the last 10 winners were priced 10/3 or shorter LTO. Those 10 wins came from 63 runners (15.9%). Those priced 17/2 or bigger were 0 wins from 65 (0%).

Racing in a Grade 1 race LTO produced five winners from 65 (7.7%). Those racing in Grade 2 or lower had five wins from 63 (7.9%).

Othere Factors: 2015-24

Horses that had won previously at the Cheltenham Festival produced five winners from 42 (11.9%). Those with no previous Festival win have scored five times from 86 (SR 5.8%).

Horses with an Official Rating of 166 or more produced eight winners from 65 (12.3%); those rated 165 or less were two from 63 (3.2%).

In terms of age, 10yos or older were 0 from 22 (0%). Nine of the winners came from horses aged 7 or 8.

Horses that had previously won at least once that season produced all ten wins from 90 qualifiers (11.1%). Horses that had not previously won that season won 0 from 38 (0%).

Conclusion: 2015-2024

During this ten-year time frame, this race was once again dominated by the front end of the betting market. Five wins for favourites and nine of the ten winners were priced 8/1 or shorter at SP. A win LTO was a plus as was an OR of 166+, while a run at Leopardstown or Newbury LTO could be seen as a positive.

Previous Festival winners comfortably outperformed non Festival winners, while a win that season was paramount with all ten winners having that stat. An even stronger positive stat was horses priced 100/30 or less LTO as they produced all the winners from roughly 50% of the runners. Less horses aged 10yo+ took part during this time frame but once again they drew a blank.

The Gold Cup Comparison

Overall, the vast majority of the key trends from 2005 to 2014 were seen again between 2015 and 2024. The race has been strongly dominated by the more fancied runners. That includes ten winning favourites during the past 20 years, and backing all favourites would have yielded a profit to SP of £14.12 (ROI +70.6%).

Below is a graph mapping the market rank of all 20 winners:

This is a neat way of illustrating the front end of market dominance. 18 of the 20 winners have come from the top four in the betting so it looks best to concentrate there.

15 of the last 20 winners won LTO – this is a strong positive that has ‘held’ during both ten-year periods. Essentially, a LTO winner has been five times more likely to win the Gold Cup than a horse that failed to win LTO. The graph below shows the A/E indices for different LTO positions:

These indices are another indication as to why a last day win before the Gold Cup has been a strong positive.

Sticking with last time out factors, all 20 winners were 8/1 or shorter on their most recent start with the last ten being 100/30 or shorter. Horses priced LTO 17/2 or bigger are 0 from 55. Now it is important to note that the vast majority of these 55 losers were decent prices come the big day, but only three of the 55 placed so if we are looking for a big priced placer, which can happen, the trends suggest that we should steer clear of this subset.

A previous Festival win has been a positive in both time frames. Overall, a previous Festival winner has been 2.4 times more likely to prevail in the Gold Cup when compared with runners who had not previously won at the Festival.

Based on the success of the top end of the betting markets it should come as no surprise that higher rated horses have been the most successful. An OR of 166 or more has produced 15 of the winners – this equates to 75% of the winners coming from around 38% of the total runners.

The age dynamic in terms of older horses (those aged 10 or older) has remained constant with these runners failing to register a win since Cool Dawn in 1998. In terms of horses aged nine or younger the last ten years has seen a slight switch with 7 and 8yos winning nine of the renewals.

A previous win that season was a positive in both time frames and that should be something to look out for again this year.

There are, however, a couple of 2005-2014 trends that did not repeat between 2015 and 2024. The first is those horses that raced in a Grade 1 event LTO. In the first ten years it seemed a strong positive if a horse ran in the highest class possible LTO. During that spell, they were roughly five times more likely to win than horses that raced in a Grade 2 or lower LTO. Fast forward to the latest ten-year period and there has been parity between both groups with no edge to horses that raced in a Grade 1 contest LTO.

The second pattern that did not repeat was the LTO Kempton one. This was a positive from 2005-2014, but actually since 2012 no LTO Kempton runner has gone on to win the Gold Cup. This is partly due to the fact that most runners in the past have come from the Boxing Day meeting at Kempton straight to the Festival. Nowadays more horses seem to fit in another run between these two big meetings.

One area I have yet to look at in terms of this race is trainers, and specifically Irish trainers versus British trainers. I will fix that now!

From 2005 to 2014, just 15.5% of the runners in the Gold Cup were trained in Ireland. In contrast, from 2015 to 2024 this has increased to 48.4%. The Irish trainers have dominantly outperformed British trainers over both time frames in terms of overall win rate. The graph below illustrates this:

Irish trainers have maintained their strike rate and with far more runners in the 2015–2024-time frame, it means they have provided the winner eight times in the last ten years (and all of the last six). British trainers have really struggled in recent years.

Splitting the data into two ten-year time frames for this race has shown that this is a race where many of the strong past trends remain the same. Generally, Grade 1 races for experienced horses are good races from a past trends perspective. However, as we have seen there has been a change in a couple of the trends highlighted between the two decades. As punters we need to be aware that this can happen and obviously react accordingly. Patterns change over time but the Gold Cup retains some very solid looking patterns which for this year’s renewal should help to narrow down the field to a small group of the most likely winners.

I now want to pick out a few other races and highlight the very strongest past trends based on the last 20 years.

Supreme Novices' Hurdle

This is the first race of the meeting, and the strongest trend is around LTO placing. Simply, we want to be looking for horses that won last time. They have provided 16 of the 20 winners from 145 runners for a break-even situation to SP (well a 48p profit to be precise). Horses that finished 2nd or worse LTO have won 4 races from 173 runners for a loss of £108.50 (ROI -62.7%).

Not only that, we have had consistency in both 10-year groups with eight LTO winners from 2005-2014 and eight from 2015-2024. The win & placed (Each Way) percentages also strongly favour the LTO winners’ group. They have been over three times more likely to finish in the first three than horses that failed to win LTO.

Sticking with the win & placed theme, the graph below shows the consistency of performance of LTO winners when tackling the Supreme. I have grouped the LTO winners in five-year batches or groups to show their win & placed percentages in each period.

The percentages have not fluctuated much with most five-year groups around the 30% mark. Clearly, for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, we should be focusing our attention on LTO winners. Of course, a non-LTO winner may be successful this year as was the case last year, when Slade Steel won the race. However, the LTO 1st stats/trends are strongly in our favour.

Champion Hurdle

The Champion hurdle is the highlight of the first day and one recent trend that stands out is concerned with unbeaten horses that season. All of the last ten winners fitted that profile, and there were only 18 horses that qualified under that rule going back to 2015. This equates to a 55.6%-win strike rate. In the previous ten years there were also 18 qualifiers, but only three won. Having said that, from 2005 to 2014 horses unbeaten in that season were still three times more likely to win compared to horses that had lost at least once in the season.

As with the Supreme, last day winners are far more likely to win than those that failed to win LTO, amassing 17 successes from 101 runners (16.8%), and an A/E index 1.01 for LTO winners, compared to 3 wins from 134 (2.2%), A/E 0.45 for non-winners. In terms of the ten-year splits, 2005-2014 saw seven wins for LTO winners, 2015-2004 saw all ten wins.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

This staying novice event is run on Gold Cup day and has one trend that has shifted dramatically in the last ten years. Let us look at the last 20 winners and their SPs:

The table neatly shows the difference between the ten years from 2005 to 2014 and those from 2015 to 2024 when it comes to the winning SPs. In the first ten-year period (lower half of the table) eight of the ten winners were priced in single figures with four favourites prevailing. In the most recent ten-year period nine of the ten winners were double figure prices and no favourite won.

The profit and loss figures for single figure priced runners during the two-time frames could not be more contrasting:

This type of switch-up reminds us once more that patterns and trends can change and that we cannot solely put our faith in all trends from past races. As punters we need to be aware that many trends will remain constant while a handful will not. Being able to adapt is part of what helps to make a punter successful over time.

Also, we are dealing with a smallish number of past races which again can seem to make trends fluctuate from time to time, whereas sometimes it was simply that the pattern was coincidence in the first place: we need to use skill and judgement to decide what is a trend and what is an accident of fate. Looking for reasons to justify a trend is a very good starting point in that regard.

- DR

London Racing Club Cheltenham Preview Night 2025 Notes

6 March 2025/in Cheltenham Festival Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

In front of a full house of keen racing fans, London Racing Club's brains trust assembled.

They were Lydia Hislop (LH), Matt Tombs (MT), Jamie Benson (JB), and maintaining order, Lee Mottershead (LM).

What follows are the notes I managed to make from their thoughts.

Tuesday

Supreme Novices' Hurdle

LH: Kopek des Bordes (KdB) will have to replicate his last race form. Bit edgy, and Supreme a test of temperament. By far the best horse in the field on what we've seen. Karbau is talented, each way or without favourite.
MT: KdB at DRF was a 'wow' race but a little worried about the preliminaries at Cheltenham. Won’t shorten much in the minutes before the race so that’s the time to bet him. Workahead e/w: Don't know his level of form but his last race has worked out, he did it well and is unexposed.
JB: At the prices want to take on KdB. Workahead Christmas form looks strong.

Arkle

MT: Majborough "most likely winner of the week." Might be a very small field.
JB: Maj looks "bar a fall."
LH: Maj very likely winner. L'Eau de Sud opposable. Second best form is Touch Me Not if he runs here. Would quite like to see Only By Night in here, too.

Mares' Hurdle

MT: "My source has been backing Lossiemouth for Mares ante post". But what sort of form is she in after that fall last time? If she doesn't run, I'm against Jade de Grugy. Instead, split stakes between Golden Ace (Kingwell form is good) and Kala Conti. They went quickly last time, and KC, close to the pace, hung tough conceding weight to July Flower.
LH: Lossie is miles clear on form. JdG is a player. KC ran great against the pace at DRF and is perhaps the value.

Champion Hurdle

LH: Brilliant race prospect. Constitution Hill cannot be "better than ever", but his near best might be enough. Brighterdaysahead will be a tough challenger, might drift on the day, and she’s backable if she does.
JB: Constitution Hill is "your absolute made in a test tube" Champion Hurdler. Price would dictate whether CH or BDA is the bet.
MT: Believe Nicky Henderson will have left plenty to work on and expect CH to improve notably. The "vibes" feels like he's back close to his best. You can have close to Evens and that might look a very big price teatime on Tuesday.

"Shoulder Races"

JB: Fred Winter - Outforastroll/Holy See race is high-class form, interesting; Murcia also interesting here. Ultima - Farouk d'Alene (100/1 shot), small throwaway bet. NH Chase - Will Do weighted to go well and this should suit.
LH: Ultima - Farouk d'Alene does have latent ability, but Whistle Stop Tour from Lucinda Russell factory. Novice, strong stayer, form solid. No view in Fred Winter but like Gericault Roque in the NH Chase.

Wednesday

Turners Novices' Hurdle

MT: Turn of foot usually needed rather than stamina, but theory might not hold up this year. Potters Charm form may not be strong enough. Suspect Final Demand might gun forward. Think Irish form is stronger than the British. The New Lion form might be overrated. Perhaps The Yellow Clay is the one: felt he quickened and then got tired at Naas last time.
LH: Really like Final Demand, but a quick ground steadily run Turners might not suit ideally. Good stayer. In steadily run race, TNL a better option but TYC is a value play against both.
JB: TYC pick of top three, but James's Gate, rated 135, would normally be exploited by Martin Brassil in a handicap. Bit of a tip perhaps.

Brown Advisory

JB: Taking on Ballyburn and Dancing City with Croke Park. Dual Grade 1 winner, outpaced over 2m5f last time.
MT: Don’t think Ballyburn will stay, he's opposable - DC very likeable but might be vulnerable to a better turn of foot. Betterdaysahead will be annoying if he wins. At big prices, Gorgeous Tom is interesting, as to a lesser degree is Asian Master stepping up a mile in trip.
LH: On instinct, thought Ballyburn might be a very good 3-miler. Ground might not be that testing and Wednesday likely to be quickest turf. Poor value but likely winner. Elsewhere, Betterdaysahead is a proper stayer. Can see Gorgeous Tom argument.

Queen Mother Champion Chase (QMCC)

MT: Jonbon good enough to win a CC but overall not sure. Feel he’s 3 or 4lb less good at Cheltenham. Deep enough race - Gaelic Warrior, Marine Nationale, Energumene, Solness. Last named is fascinating, could be "this year’s Flooring Porter". Was going quick at DRF and quickened again when MN came to him. Against MN. 40/1 NRNB Qulixios thumped MN first time up this season; if he turns up he's got a win chance, never mind e/w.
LH: Jonbon is at his absolute peak this season. I don't buy the theory that he needs to go right-handed; rather, I feel that's a function of most of the British two-mile Grade 1's being run on right-handed tracks. So it's coincidence. His Cheltenham runs can all be excused: too aggressively ridden vs. Constitution Hill in the Supreme; beaten by an on-song El Fabiolo in Arkle (but he’s gone on from his novice form and El Fab hasn’t); seasonal debuts for Shloer so unlikely at peak (though his 2023 win is not far off his upper efforts); and in a holding pattern when a nervier type than he is now in rerouted 2024 Clarence House when also ridden sub-optimally by new rider. Lots of shorties have been beaten in the Champion Chase and I don't really want to bet him (or lay him!) Gaelic Warrior might have an issue in his throat (rumour) but would need it wet anyway. Found A Fifty might be overpriced. Suited to quickish ground. Energumene might be a backable price on the day with so many naysayers on the circuit.
JB: MN looks reasonable on his Supreme win. Blood Destiny crying out for a fast run two mile race.

Cross Country Chase

MT: Believe top weights will continue to dominate as they did when the race was a limited handicap previously. Galvin looks a fantastic bet. "Feel he should almost be an even money job"!

"Shoulders"

LH: Touch Me Not - Grand Annual.
JB: The Other Mozzie - Grand Annual. Bet of the Day is Colonel Mustard at 33/1 in Coral Cup.

Thursday

Ryanair Chase

LH: Il Est Francais will take them along, Protektorat in second, but it's a deeper race this year than last when Protek won.
MT: Could make a case for Djelo.

Stayers' Hurdle

JB: Most vulnerable favourite of the shorties is Teahupoo. Ga Law could run well at a massive price.
LH: It's become trendy to knock Teahupoo. Might end up a fair price. Expecting ground to be softer than predicted (watering).
MT: Traditionally a Teahupoo fan. But got a bit twitchy since. If he drifts, he might be a bet, but he’s short enough at the moment. Lucky Place is an improving 6yo with form that has worked out well. Just about the only progressive horse in the race. Looks very solid e/w.

"Shoulders"

JB: Nine Graces, Kim Muir - "Bet of the Day." Idem in the Pertemps worth a look.
MT: FeetofaDancer in Pertemps has a similar look to Paul Nolan's winner, Mrs Milner.
LH: Git Maker and Aworkinprogress interesting wherever they run. Galileo Dame in the Dawn Run if she goes there. Also Air Of Entitlement in that race might be ovoerpriced.

Friday

Gold Cup

LH: Galopin Des Champs just wins, doesn't he? Can win off any pace, on any ground. Monty's Star has upside: improved from a moderate start to season and given an end-to-end gallop he’s interesting. Don’t think Banbridge will stay.
MT: Think GDC will win, really hope he wins. But if there’s one horse who might do him for speed, it’s Banbridge, who definitely has a squeak. Want GDC to have a race rather than a procession. If Monty's shortens in the betting, that could be noteworthy e/w.

Triumph Hurdle

JB: East India Dock is hard to oppose. Nicky Henderson saying Palladium and Lulamba are tough to separate. So Palladium might be value. Slight worry that EID may not find enough up the hill.
MT: EID is miles the best horse on form and is overpriced even at 2/1. But how good are the Irish juveniles? 9 of the last 12 Triumph winners came from Dublin Racing Festival Spring Juvenile, only three won there. From that race, Hello Neighbour is 5/1, Galileo Dame 16/1 but there's not that much between them.
LH: "Palladium jumps like an entire!" EID has by far the best form and should be shorter.

Albert Bartlett

LH: Not got handle on this race. Wingmen seems fairly solid. TYC credible if he came here.
JB: Wingmen been crying out for a lead and this is exactly the sort of race he wants.
MT: Jet Blue won the best UK trial. Could drift and would be backable if he did. Argento Boy is a "now" horse. Has been a bit clueless but won easily last time in a nothing race. Paul Townend could pick this lad over Jasmin de Vaux.

"Shoulders"

JB: Woodhooh- Martin Pipe, happy Kopek de Mee goes here because he makes the price on anything else you fancy! Kargese - County, needs faster pace, which she’ll get here. Dangerous off 145.
LH: Strong on Kargese in County.
MT: Really like Woodhooh. Also Lark In The Mornin in County. Ryehill (Hunter Chase) is a big horse, makes mistakes but has bundles of talent.

NAPS / CHARITY BETS

JB: E/W Colonel Mustard - Coral Cup
LH: Whistle Stop Tour - Ultima
LM: Absurde - County
MT: Galvin - Cross Country

2025 Grand National Trial Trends

10 February 2025/in Trends/by Andy Newton

The Grade Three Grand National Trial Chase is staged at Haydock racecourse each year and provides racing fans with further clues ahead of the Grand National.

That said, the race is all but a trial in name as since 1980 we’ve not seen a winner of the Betfred Grand National Trial follow-up that season in the Aintree marathon - Suny Bay, the 1997 winner, did go onto finish second at Liverpool in the National. The 2005 winner, Forest Gunner, went onto run a respectable fifth, while in 2017 we saw the David Pipe-trained Vieux Lion Rouge win this trial before going onto finished a respectable sixth in the Grand National a few months later.

12 months ago, in 2024, the Gavin Cromwell-trained Yeah Man winning the race.

Here at GeeGeez, we look back at recent winners and gives you the key stats to take in the 2025 renewal – this year set to be run on Saturday February 15th.

Recent Grand National Trial Winners

2024 - YEAH MAN (9/2 jfav)
2023 - QUICK WAVE (18/1)
2022 – BRISTOL DE MAI (11/2)
2021 - LORD DU MESNIL (8/1)
2020 – SMOOTH STEPPER (33/1)
2019 – ROBINSFIRTH (8/1)
2018 – YALA ENKI (8/1)
2017 – VIEUX LION ROUGE (8/1)
2016 – BISHOPS ROAD (13/2)
2015 – LIE FORRIT (8/1)
2014 – RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE (16/1)
2013 – WELL REFRESHED (9/2 fav)
2012 – GILES CROSS (4/1 fav)
2011 – SILVER BY NATURE (10/1)
2010 – SILVER BY NATURE (7/1)
2009 – RAMBLING MINSTER (18/1)
2008 – MIKO DE BEAUCHENE (17/2)
2007 – HELTORNIC (12/1)
2006 – OSSMOSES (14/1)
2005 – FOREST GUNNER (12/1)
2004 – JURANCON II (10/1)
2003 - SHOTGUN WILLY (10/1)

================================================

The 2025 Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide

£4 Discount With Promo Code: TNCFBG25

Written by Paul Ferguson and Guest Authors, is the complete guide to The Festival, with every fact, stat and trend covered to help you make the most informed bets throughout the best week of the year.

Discount (£4) applies to both print and digital bundle.

==================================================

Haydock Grand National Trial Betting Trends

21/22 – UK-based trained winners
20/22 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before
19/22– Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
18/22 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
17/22 – Rated 135 or higher
17/22 – Aged 10 or younger
16/22 – Finished in the top three last time out
15/22 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
15/22 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) before
14/22 – Aged 9 or younger
13/22 – Finished in the top two last time out
12/22 – Carried 11-0 or less
11/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/22 – Unplaced favourites
8/22 – Won last time out
8/20 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
8/22 – Irish-bred winners
6/22 – Ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out
4/22 – Won with 11-12 in weight
3/22 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/22 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
3/22 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/22 – Winning favourites
5 of the last 10 winners returned 8/1 in the betting
8 of the last 10 winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
16 of the last 17 winners were aged between 8-11 years-old

================================================

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM

GET THE BEST DAILY TRAINER INFO FROM 13 TOP STABLES - Sent direct to your in-box!

**SPECIAL OFFER** TRY US FOR JUST £1.99!!

FIND OUT MORE HERE

==================================================

2025 William Hill Hurdle Trends

3 February 2025/in Trends/by Andy Newton

Staged at Newbury racecourse the William Hill Hurdle (former the Betfair Hurdle) is a Grade Three contest run over 2m 1/2f in February each year.

First run in 1963, the race is always a hotly-contested race, while some punters might know the even better as either the Tote Gold Trophy or the totesport Trophy, being that’s what the race was called before Betfair took over the sponsorship in 2012. With William Hill takig over in 2025.

Despite more obvious Champion Hurdle trials on offer during the season the race has thrown up two horses – Persian War and Make A Stand – that went onto glory at the Cheltenham Festival in the Champion Hurdle later that season, while the 2013 hero - My Tent Or Yours - went onto be second in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

The 2003 winner, Spirit Leader, went onto land the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival the following month, while in 2017 the Nigel Twiston-Davis-trained Ballyandy won the race before running fourth in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. More recently in 2018, Kalashinkov won this before running second in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

In 2024, trainer Nicky Henderson was winning his sixth Betfair Hurdle when the JP McManus-owned Iberico Lord landed the prize.

Here at GEEGEEZ, we look back at recent winners of the race and highlights the key stats ahead of the 2025 renewal – this year staged on Saturday 8th February.

Recent Betfair Hurdle Winners

2024 - IBERICO LORD (11/2)
2023 – AUCUNRISQUE (9/1)
2022 – GLORY AND FORTUNE (20/1)
2021 - SOARING GLORY (17/2)
2020 – PIC D’ORHY (33/1)
2019 - AL DANCER (5/2 fav)
2018 – KALASHINKOV (8/1 co-fav)
2017 – BALLYANDY (3/1 fav)
2016 – AGRAPART (16/1)
2015 – VIOLET DANCER (20/1)
2014 – SPLASH OF GINGE (33/1)
2013 – MY TENT OR YOURS (5/1 fav)
2012 – ZARKANDAR (11/4 fav)
2011 – RECESSION PROOF (12/1)
2010 – GET ME OUT OF HERE (6/1)
2009 – No race
2008 – WINGMAN (14/1)
2007 – HEATHCOTE (50/1)
2006 – No race
2005 – ESSEX (4/1 fav)
2004 – GEOS (16/1)
2003 – SPIRIT LEADER (14/1)
2002 – COPELAND (13/2)
2001 – LANDING LIGHT (4/1 fav)

Betfair Hurdle Betting Trends

22/22 – Carried 11-8 or less in weight
21/22 – Aged 7 or younger
20/22 – Rated 130 or higher
19/22 – Had raced within the last 9 weeks
18/22 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
18/22 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
17/22 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
17/22 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
17/22 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
16/21 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
14/22 – Placed favourites
12/22 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
11/22 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
10/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/22 – Irish bred
8/22 – Won last time out
8/22 – Aged 5 years-old (including 8 of last 18)
7/22 – Winning favourites
4/22 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/22 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 6 times in all)
3/22 – Trained by Gary Moore
3/22 – Owned by JP McManus
3/22 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 of the last 11)
2/22 - Trained by Jonjo O’Neill (2 of the last 15)
2/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 12)
2/22 - Raced at Leopardstown last time out
1/22 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
27 of the last 28 winners have been aged 7 or younger
7 of the last 8 winners carried between 11-1 and 11-8
The average winning SP in the last 22 runnings is 13/1

================================================

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM

GET THE BEST DAILY TRAINER INFO FROM 13 TOP STABLES - Sent direct to your in-box!

**SPECIAL OFFER** TRY US FOR JUST £1.99!!

FIND OUT MORE HERE

==================================================

Saturday TV Trends Sat TV Trends: 11th Jan 2025

10 January 2025/in Trends/by Andy Newton

There is good and bad news for the ITV Racing this weekend (11th Jan 25) as the main cards at Kempton, Warwick and Wetherby have all been lost due to the freezing weather around the country at the moment.

However, on a plus the BHA acted quicky earlier in the week to get on some extra fixtures with Ffos Las added and they will show the Towton Novices' Chase that was due to be run at Wetherby.

While there is also a new AW card at Chelmsford, they've brought the Newcastle meeting forward so they can show action there. Plus they are also taking in two races in from Fairyhouse in Ireland.

To help we've thrown out some quick-fire trends and stats for some of the ITV races - keep warm!

Horse Racing Stats For ITV Racing (Saturday 11th January 2025)

1:15 Ffos Las: DragonBet Towton Novices' Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m3½f ITV4

16/17 – Aged 8 or younger
15/17 – Had never raced over fences at Wetherby before
14/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/17 – Priced 3/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
13/17 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
12/17 – Aged 7 years-old
12/17 – Irish bred
11/17 – Placed favourites
9/17 – Raced at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (3) last time out
9/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
8/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Brown Advisory Chase at Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, Blaklion 2016, plus all finished 6th or better)
2/17 – Trained by Ian Williams
2/17 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 of the last 7)

Note: This was was due to be run at Wetherby

1:45 Fairyhouse: SBK Dan & Joan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (5yo+) 2m1f ITV4

Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 7 runnings
Three winning favourites since 2015
8 of the last 10 winners priced 8/1 or shorter
7 of the last 10 winners aged between 8-10
Trainer Willie Mullins won the race in 2024 and has a 29% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer PJ Rothwell is just 2-35 with his chasers at the track
Trainer John Patrick Ryan is just 0-38 with his chasers at the track
Jockey Paul Townend has a 41% return riding chasers at the track
Jockey Sean Flanagan is just 3 from 48 return riding chasers at the track

2:00 Newcastle (AW): Gamble Responsibly At BetUK Handicap Cl4 (4yo+ 0-80) 1m2f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Fiona McSharry has a 33% strike-rate with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Edward Bethell has a 16% strike-rate with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Ewan Whillans is just 5-121 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Cam Hardie has only a 3% return riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Amie Waugh has only a 6% return riding 4+ year-olds at the track

2:25 Ffos Las: DragonBet The Independent Bookmaker Handicap Hurdle Cl3 (4yo+ 0-140) 3m ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Jamie Snowden has a 25% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Emma Lavelle has a 16% strike-rate with her hurdlers at the track
Trainer Bernard Llewellyn is just 2-48 with his hurdlers at the track
Jockey Joe Anderson has a 21% return riding hurdlers at the track
Jockey James Best has only a 4% return riding hurdlers at the track

2:40 Chelmsford (AW): bet365 Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-90) 1m ITV4

Trainer Charlie Johnston has a 27% strike-rate with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey has a 24% strike-rate with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer James Owen has a 23% strike-rate with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Achie Watson has just a 7% strike-rate with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Spencer has a just a 3% strike-rate with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Richard Kingscote has a 23% return riding 4+ year-olds at the track

3:15 Chelmsford (AW): Bet Boost At bet365 Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-95) 6f ITV4

Trainer Richard Fahey has a 24% strike-rate with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Richard Kingscote has a 23% return riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Alistar Rawlinson is just 9-103 return riding 4+ year-olds at the track

================================================

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM

GET THE BEST DAILY TRAINER INFO FROM 13 TOP STABLES - Sent direct to your in-box!

**SPECIAL OFFER** TRY US FOR JUST £1.99!!

FIND OUT MORE HERE

==================================================

Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25

3 January 2025/in Tix Picks/by Chris Worrall

So, here we are, with what is I think will be my last column on Geegeez. After countless episodes of Stat of The Day, Racing Insights and more recently here on Tix Picks, my time is up.

Sadly a combination of having to go to press early on Friday and the possibility of abandonments are forcing my hand a little, but Saturday's racing is supposed to come from Cork, Sandown Southwell, Wincanton & Wolverhampton, although it's quite possible there'll be no UK jumps racing.

If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Saturday's pools

Saturday's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a huge £100,000 placepot guarantee at Sandown...

I don't really 'do' Irish racing and both UK tracks are being inspected after I leave the North to head to Exeter to return my youngest to University, so I'm only faced with a choice of two modest-looking A/W cards on the Tapeta. The Southwell card looks a marginally higher standard than the Wolverhampton one, so let's head there for six races...

Race 1 @ 2.47...This looks like a two-horse race between (1) Mdawi and (3) Jiff's Army, both finished third on their last runs of 2024 with the latter having also done so in his previous outing. he also raced on Friday, winning by a length and a half at Lingfield over a mile.

I'll take both (1) Mdawi and (3) Jiff's Army here.

Race 2 @ 3.22...Alyara was narrowly beaten at Chelmsford two starts ago and then won a 1m handicap here at Southwell a fortnight ago. The drop in trip is interesting but he should go well again. Coconut Bay had a spell where he finished 222133931 in the spring/summer but hasn't really hit those heights again since a win over this trip at Catterick in August, but is now 2lbs below that winning mark

Inexplicable is a healthy 10 from 70 on tapeta, but he seems to save his best for Wolverhampton where he is 8/41 as opposed to his 1/18 here and he folded tamely at Newcastle on Thursday. Shaka is a bit of an A/W enigma, failing to win any of 16 starts, but has been the runner-up in three of his last seven, including two here at Southwell, of which one was over this course and distance.

Tenyatta has a slightly better A/W record at 1/12, but it's not much to shout about, although he was less than a length behind Alyara here a fortnight ago when 3rd of 12, so could well get involved again.

It's not a good race and should take much winning and I think that (1) Alyara, (8) Tenyatta and possibly (4) Coconut Bay are the ones to be with.

Race 3 @ 4.03...There are only three runners that remotely interest me here, so all three will be going on the bet builder...

(5) Fact Or Fable won at Bath in mid-August and although winless in six runs since, did show some signs of a return to some semblance of form when 4th of 12 at Wolverhampton on Boxing Day, beaten by little more than half a length and just a head behind Monsieur Fantaisie (below) who finished third.

(7) Monsieur Fantaisie won here over track and trip and as stated above was a narrowly defeated placer at Wolverhampton just over a week ago. Off the same weights, I suppose the placings would remain unchanged, but there's not much between them.

(10) Tathmeen looks the most likely of the rest of the field to chase the above pair home and this 10 yr old veteran is no stranger to the winners' enclosure, having won 13 times on the A/W and after some indifferent form, is now 2lbs below his last winning mark and could surprise a few in this weak affair.

Race 4 @ 4.35...The one I 'like' most here is probably (1) Line Of Force who has three wins and a runner-up finish from his six starts to date and won here over 6f on his A/W debut last time out. More is expected from him now going handicapping. The biggest danger is likely to come from (2) Art Market who won a couple of handicaps on turf in the summer, one at 6f and one at today's trip. Hasn't raced for over three months and now makes an A/W debut 1lb lower than his last turf run.

Race 5 @ 5.05...Moon Over Miami has only raced twice before winning both times at Class 5 over 1m2f/1m3½f on the Flat. Might need the run though after eight months off and a two-step rise in class for his A/W debut. Old Harrovian was last seen finishing third of fourteen in a decent Class 2 handicap at Kempton on his comeback from a four month break. Since then, the winner has won again and the third placed horse has been a runner-up, so that bodes well here.

Asgard's Captain is 5 from 9 on the A/W over the last year with a runner-up finish to boot. He comes here off a win at Newcastle three weeks ago where he stayed on well and I'm not sure a 2lb rise in weight anchors him just yet. Glen Buck won both his first two races a fortnight apart in Jan/Feb of 2023; both on Tapeta and at trips of 1m and 1m1½f. He then reappeared at Wolverhampton six weeks to finish a very creditable third of thirteen over 1m1½f, defying his 656-day layoff and he'd be entitled to come on for having had that run.

Moon Over Miami is plenty good enough for this on another day, but I've concerns about fitness, class and the A/W debut, so I'll set him aside in favour of (6) Old Harrovian, (8) Asgards Captain & (10) Glen Buck

Race 6 @ 5.35...Not for the first time today that my picks almost select themselves, as there are only three I'm interested in.

(1) Just Ten High is 1172301 on the A/W and 1721 here at Southwell. he tackled 6f for the first time in his latest race and duly won won here over course and distance and must be the one to beat off a strong gallop.

(7) Bomb Squad has also won over C&D albeit back in August, but he comes here in good nick having finished 3521 in his last four and 321 in his last three over today's trip, all on tapeta including a win at Wolverhampton last time out.

(8) Laura's Breeze hasn't quite been as successful as the other pair, but she has made the frame in 9 of her 18 A/W starts and has 2 wins and 3 further places from 11 on tapeta. Her recent form reads 2733, so she's clearly in good nick and has won here in the past.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Mdawi and (3) Jiff's Army

Leg 2: (1) Alyara, (4) Coconut Bay and (8) Tenyatta

Leg 3: (5) Fact Or Fable, (7) Monsieur Fantaisie & (10) Tathmeen

Leg 4: (1) Line Of Force & (2) Art Market

Leg 5: (6) Old Harrovian, (8) Asgards Captain & (10) Glen Buck

Leg 6: (1) Just Ten High, (7) Bomb Squad & (8) Laura's Breeze

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

And that, as they say, is a wrap. I'd like to thank everyone who has taken their time to read my ramblings over the last thirteen or so years in one guise or another, I have to say it has been a lot of fun.

Good Luck for Saturday, however you play the placepot and it's goodbye from me.

Chris

Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25

3 January 2025/in Tix Picks/by Chris Worrall

Friday's racing comes from Lingfield, Musselburgh & Southwell.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Southwell...

Again we'll follow the money down to Southwell for six races, starting with...

Race 1 @ 4.30...Sisterandbrother has already won on the Flat and over hurdles, but has yet to get off the mark on the A/W after seven attempts, although his last two visits to Southwell have seen him finish third on both occasions, beaten by around two lengths over similar trips to today. Young Endless has made the frame in 7 of 12 on the A/W, winning three times, Those three wins were all here at Southwell where he is 31211 and he's 2 from 2 over 1m6f here but he has struggled over this shorter trip in the past and hasn't been seen for seven months.

Paradoxical is 121 in his last three starts including a Tapeta win at Wolverhampton and a distance win at Lingfield last time out when sent off as the 11/10 fav on New Year's Eve. Up 5lbs for that win, but he was pretty comfortable there if truth be told. Khangai won over course and distance two months ago and has finished 3312 in four races since, all on Tapeta including a win over this trip at Wolverhampton before a 1.25 length defeat here over 1m6f five days ago. He now drops back in trip, but runs off the same mark and should be involved.

(1) Sisterandbrother, (4) Paradoxical & (9) Khangai are my picks here, as Young Endless could well need the run.

Race 2 @ 5.00...Palmar Bay won three of ten on the Flat at Classes 2/3, including finishing third on his last run of the season at Haydock in mid-October. He then went really well on his A/W debut when second of seven just half a length down at Lingfield and now drops in class for a first run on Tapeta. Lattaash comes here off the back of finishing 3rd of 12 in a Class 4 handicap at Newcastle and then winning well in a Novice race at Wolverhampton, both off today's mark of 83. he has made the frame in 5 of 6 starts to date, all on the A/W and I can see that becoming six from seven.

Billy Mill has finished in the first four home in each of his last seven efforts on the A/W over the last year (3113343) and had two good runs at Ascot in July. Wasn't at his best at Goodwood and Sandown in subsequent efforts, but now down in class and away from the grass, could show himself in a better light if he's not rusty following a 16-week break. Perennial is a lightly raced 4yr old with potential and makes just a fifth start today. He finished 153 in three runs on the Flat for Ed Walker in the summer before a 4-month break and a change of yard was followed by am A/W debut three weeks ago. He ran better than 5th of 7 would suggest, as he took a while to get going and possibly found Chelmsford's 6f a little too quick, as many have in the past. he's had the benefit of a run and steps up in trip on a slightly slower surface and could well improve here.

(1) Palmar Bay, (2) Lattaash & a chance taken on (8) Perennial taken here.

Race 3 @ 5.30...Coul Angel was slowly away on his debut here over 5f a fortnight ago, but was flying once he got going and managed 4th of 10, beaten by less than a length and a half and missing a place by just a head. He should come on for the run and the extra furlong could be handy for him. Macedonian was a good second of fifteen on debut at Newmarket in August and followed that up with a 4th of 12 at Kempton on A/W debut a month later. Both runs came over today's trip and this one has been gelded during his four-week break.

Rebel's Gamble is an interesting debutant representing the trainer and jockey who won this race last year. He was deemed worthy of a 135,000 Gns price tag as a yearling and his brother Nahaar won 6 of 14 at 6/7f, whilst his half-brother Gleneagle Bay finished 15222 in his five races last year, going down narrowly in his last two valuable races. Stardancer was a modest 6th of 11 on debut at Newmarket in early November, but made an good A/W debut a fortnight ago, when 2nd of 9 over today's course and distance, beaten only by an 8/13 fav. A similar run here puts him right in the mix and he's every right to improve for his recent experience.

I'll take (5) Macedonian, (6) Rebels Gamble & (7) Stardancer here.

Race 4 @ 6.00...Brightandbeautiful has finished third and fourth in her two A/W starts to date, both over today's 7f trip, including a third over course and distance in mid-November. She probably wants further than this, but she's running well and this looks a poor race. Whizz By is the only runner in the field with a win to their name and she comes here on a hat-trick after a pair of C&D handicap wins here in October/November. She went up 7lbs for her first win and is up another 5lbs, but I think she still has the potential to improve further and should be the one to beat here.

Empowered Queen has gone pretty well in her three handicap starts to date without ripping too many trees up, finishing 454 in 11/12-runner contests over 6/7f on Tapeta. She was beaten by little more than half a length here at Southwell over 6f last time out, staying on, so the move back to 7f could help. Bantz comes from a yard in decent form and with a good track record here and he was a little unlucky last time out, when initially denied a clear run over 6f at Newcastle before being switched out resulting in his heels being clipped a furlong from home effectively ending his race as he was eased down. An extra furlong and a clearer passage could see a different outcome here.

Bantz misses out, though, as I'm going with (3) Brightandbeautiful, (6) Whizz By & (7) Empowered Queen from this one.

Race 5 @ 6.30...Style Of Life has obvious ability, as demonstrated by her 25122 finishes in September/October, but she has failed to shine in two runs on Tapeta since and needs to bounce back. She has been eased a pound in the ratings, but remains 5lbs higher than her last win, but is now 1lb lower than her Wolverhampton runner-up effort in October. Rapido Girl is 322 from her three A/W runs to date over 6/7f on Tapeta in the last seven weeks and was only beaten by 0.75 lengths behind the 5/2 fav at Newcastle last time out. No reason why she can't/won't place again here.

Bella Kopella hasn't raced over today's trip in any of her last 14 starts over a similar amount of months, but her record on the A/W at this trip reads 212131 and considering she has been consistently outpaced over shorter trips of late, the step back up in trip is both interesting and logical. She should be well prepared as she has been kept quite busy over the last year. Starsong lost her way a little after finishes of 17332 (beaten by a head over C&D in the last of those five) in the first quarter of 2024, but she took advantage of a falling handicap mark to make the frame at Lingfield 12 days ago, beaten by just half a length as a runner-up and was half a length in front of third-placed Ravensbourne who was a 25/1 placer mentioned on this column yesterday.

Style of Life looks the weaker of the four, so I'll go with (2) Rapido Girl, (5) Bella Kopella & (10) Starsong here.

Race 6 @ 7.00...A poor-looking race to finish on, where only three horses make any appeal to me at all, so my 1-2-3 pretty much picks itself...

Autumn Angel has steadily improved on Tapeta over the last six weeks finishing 4321 with decreasing margins of defeat prior to a near-two length win over today's trip at Wolverhampton four days ago. This run of form means she now carries 5lbs more than the rest of the field, but she's clearly the form horse here.

Bernie The Bear was the runner-up in that race on Monday, staying on strongly and with the weight pull in his favour, he could be the main threat/challenge to Autumn Angel's hopes of doubling up. If not, he's always a viable place prospect after making the frame in 8 of 12 over 6f on the A/W.

Piperstown was third in back to back races (here at Southwell and then at Lingfield) in August/September and won here over 5f two starts ago, but failed to shine on New Year's Day when he never really got going in a Newcastle 5f sprint. The step up in trip might help and he could well bounce back, but I doubt he's beating either of the other two.

Piperstown looks a fair way below the other pair, so I'll just take (1) Autumn Angel & (4) Bernie The Bear from this one.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: ((1) Sisterandbrother, (4) Paradoxical & (9) Khangai

Leg 2: (1) Palmar Bay, (2) Lattaash & (8) Perennial

Leg 3: (5) Macedonian, (6) Rebels Gamble & (7) Stardancer

Leg 4: (3) Brightandbeautiful, (6) Whizz By & (7) Empowered Queen

Leg 5: (2) Rapido Girl, (5) Bella Kopella & (10) Starsong

Leg 6: (1) Autumn Angel & (4) Bernie The Bear

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, everyone.
Chris

Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25

2 January 2025/in Tix Picks/by Chris Worrall

Thursday's racing comes from Ayr, Huntingdon & Newcastle
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Newcastle...

Let's follow the money and head to Newcastle for six contests on standard tapeta starting with...

Leg 1 @ 1.52...Come On John has finished 13222 in his last five, all on Tapeta and has only gone down by a head, 0.75 lengths and ahead in his last three and looks like the one to beat here on form. even if he is up 2lbs today. Fifty Sent runs for the first time since May, when losing by a nose on the nod and he made the frame here four starts ago and could be of interest on his yard debut for Sam England.

Inspiring Speeches might be winless after 15 starts, but did show some promise in handicaps during 2024, finishing 23522 in a five-race block in August/September. He'll need to improve upon a 4 length defeat last time out, but he's down in weight here. Jujubella is another maiden, having failed to land any of her seven races to date, but since coming racing in the UK, has finished 434, all here at Newcastle over a mile. She was doing her best work late on each time, so the step up to 1m2f might just be the ticket.

This race is there to be won/lost for (2) Come On John, but I'll take (5) Inspiring Speeches & (8) Jujubella as backups.

Leg 2 @ 2.27...Bond Spirit is running pretty well right now, making the first four home in each of his last three starts over 1m4f-1m6f at Wolverhampton, all off a mark of 48. He has been eased a pound in the ratings and if holding his form, should be involved once more today. Busby ended a bit of a lean spell by winning at Southwell over 1m4f a fortnight ago, making all in what was his first run in a visor giving him an 11th career A/W win from 57 starts and with a 42% place strike rate on the A/W is usually a safe placepot pick.

Rubellite has finished 2344 on the tapeta in her last four starts off today's mark and whilst he doesn't win very often, he's usually very much involved in proceedings and there no reason why she can't make the frame today. The 12yo veteran Visitant is another who is often there or thereabouts, despite now being on a winless run of eighteen starts. His recent form has seen him make the frame in four of his last seven and was a half-length runner-up here over 1m2f in August and was also third here over course and distance just three weeks ago on his last run.

It's a modest-looking affair here, from which I'll take (3) Busby, (7) Rubellite & (9) Visitant for my bet builder.

Leg 3 @ 3.02...Lahab hasn't raced too often over today's trip of late, but was a course and distance runner-up last January off a mark 15lbs higher than today and was a runner-up again here (over 7f) two starts ago when only beaten inside the last furlong, so whilst not an obvious candidate could be dangerous off this current mark. Brazilian Rose is an interesting/unexposed type with just five (4 on A/W) starts to date. She won over 7f on debut at Lingfield in August and was third over today's trip on the tapeta at Wolverhampton in September. 5f here was probably too sharp for her, as she went down by just over 2.5 lengths, but the step back up to 6f might suit her.

Spartan Fighter went down by a couple of lengths over track/trip on his latest run, but was third at Chelmsford last month and a course and distance winner here back in October and is a danger here now returned to the same mark as that win. Noble Consort is, however, probably the one to beat despite a 5lb rise in the weights for a made-all course and distance win here just over a fortnight ago after a couple of decent efforts on the tapeta at both Southwell and Wolverhampton. He was a length and three quarters clear here last time out and wasn't really challenged, so could/should have more to give.

Of the four, Lahab is the least likely in my mind, leaving me with (2) Brazilian Rose, (4) Spartan Fighter & (6) Noble Consort.

Leg 4 @ 3.32...Tomorrow Day was in my overnight 1-2-3, but now doesn't run but there are still others to look at from a place perspective at worst, starting with Jimmy Knocker, a lightly raced 94 starts) 4 yr old, who fared well enough on his first crack at 6f in what was a handicap debut at Southwell a fortnight ago. He was, unfortunately, slow away and had to play catch up, but stayed on well in what ended up being a four-length defeat and he should come on for the experience. Yoshimi on the other hand, has 48 races under his belt with a healthy (for this level) 8 wins to his name. He has been better at 7f, but dropped back to today's trip last time out when beaten by three lengths at Wolverhampton and a better start sees him closer today off 1lb lower.

Oriental Prince comes here on a hat-trick, having won his last two, bother here at Newcastle over 5f, the most recent of which was yesterday and he carries no penalty for that success. He tends to stay on well enough, so the step back up to 6f (C&D runner-up in October) shouldn't be an issue. Hurstwood is the only other runner with a win in their recent form lines, but closer inspection shows that only 1 of his 9 career wins have been on the A/W and from 20 efforts, 19 of which have been here at Newcastle.

That said, he has a win and four further places from 17 starts over 6f/7f here, so it's not beyond the realms of possibility that he makes the frame again today, but I prefer (1) Jimmy Knocker, (2) Yoshimi & (5) Oriental Prince here.

Leg 5 @ 4.05...Encircle ran just once for Simon Crisford the best part of a year ago, but showed promise finishing as a one-length runner-up to stable mate Miss Bielsa at Wolverhampton. She now comes back from 342 days off the track to make a yard debut for Rebecca Menzies and will have the very useful 3lb claimer Kaiya Fraser in the saddle. Heavenly Heather was a runner-up here at this class/trip two starts ago, but faded late on when stepped up in class and trip last time out. She's now back down to Class 5 and back at 7f and should put up a better show than LTO.

General Admission was popular Kempton on debut in October, when sent sent off as the 3/1 second favourite and the market support was justified as he was only beaten by the 13/8 fav Yankee Dude who ran him out of it late on to win by 1.75 lengths. The run by General Admission probably sets the benchmark here and a similar effort should take this race. The third placed horse was a head behind him and he won a 16-runner maiden next time out. Lord Capulet is a half-brother to dual Group 1 winner Rosallion and whilst I'm not suggesting he's going to be that good, it is worth noting. He has raced just once to date and faded away at Redcar on soft ground back in November. This surface should be a little easier to run on, he should come on for the run and it's hard to ignore his breeding.

On results alone, I have to take (4) Encircle and (7) General Admission, but I'm also going to take a chance on the potential of (10) Lord Capulet. I've a feeling that Encircle might well go off at a big price and might well be worth a small (and I mean small!) E/W punt.

Leg 6 @ 4.40...Streak Lightning has finished third in each of his last two starts, both here over course and distance last month and he runs off the same mark as when scoring over track/trip back in September. Finn Ironside had a decent second half to 2024 finishing 213434 in his last six outings. The final two runs in that sequence were over today's course and distance, beaten by 2.5 and 3 lengths respectively. A slight 1lb drop in weight might help slightly and he should be there or thereabouts today.

Angel Of Antrim looks the one to beat, though, based on her last two efforts; a pair of 5-length wins over course and distance five and twelve days ago. Another similar effort should easily be enough here and she's 6lb well in under a penalty. Ravensbourne completes my shortlist despite being a 14-race (10 on A/W) maiden for four different trainers. Her current mark of 53 (down from70 a year ago) is probably more suitable for her and she comes here off the back of a pair of third placed finishes at Lingfield, the best of which was a one-length defeat 11 days ago on her latest yard debut off today's mark.

(6) Angel Of Antrim is my clear pick here and I've little to separate the other trio if truth be told, but I'll take (4) Streak Lightning and (5) Finn Ironside for backup.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Come On John, (5) Inspiring Speeches & (8) Jujubella

Leg 2: (3) Busby, (7) Rubellite & (9) Visitant

Leg 3: (2) Brazilian Rose, (4) Spartan Fighter & (6) Noble Consort

Leg 4: (1) Jimmy Knocker, (2) Yoshimi & (5) Oriental Prince

Leg 5: (4) Encircle, (7) General Admission & (10) Lord Capulet

Leg 6: (4) Streak Lightning, (5) Finn Ironside & (6) Angel Of Antrim

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck everybody!
Chris

Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24

31 December 2024/in Tix Picks/by Chris Worrall

Tuesday's racing comes from Lingfield, Punchestown, Uttoxeter & Warwick.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Lingfield...

I'm not over keen on the Lingfield A/W card, so we'll stay on the jumps, from which the Uttoxeter card looks the better quality. So we'll take in six races from there on good to soft ground, starting off with...

Race 1 @ 12.30...Andy Amo has made a reasonable start to hurdling life, finishing 2nd of 10 and 4th of 12, both at Ffos Las and the way he stayed over 2m6f on debut suggests that the extra distance here might suit him, as might slightly quicker ground than LTO. Grand Geste didn't rip up any trees in two bumpers and had a couple of indifferent efforts over hurdles before the penny started to drop and he has been 2nd of 14, beaten by half a length over 2m4f and a staying on 3rd of 10 over 3m since. That was four weeks ago at Haydock and a similar run makes him dangerous here.

Pike Road has only tackled hurdles once, but stayed on to finish 2nd of 12 over 3m on that debut run and could well improve for having had the run. A similar effort in a poor looking race could put him in the frame again, but the one to beat here is possibly/probably Star Of Diamonds who won a 3m Irish PTP at Quakerstown nine months ago and didn't run again until his debut under Rules at Haydock four weeks ago, where he ended up 4th of 10 over 3m½f on soft ground, losing two places late on (finishing a head behind Grand Geste) and he'd be entitled to come on for the run.

Of these four, I like Andy Amo least, so I'll go with (3) Grand Geste, (4) Pike Road & (6) Star Of Diamonds in the opener.

Race 2 @ 1.00...Benassi has been a bit of a mixed bag so far in nine starts over hurdles, making the frame in six of them, including two wins, but also failing to complete twice and a 40 length defeat. On the evidence of his last run, though, when second of nine at Leicester, it's hard to ignore his claims. I just hope he's on a good day. El Granjero hasn't quite hit the levels of last season where he was 22211 over hurdles and he doesn't seem to have seen 2m6f/2m7f out in both starts this term. He's down in the weights to just 4lbs higher than his last, wears cheekpieces for the first time and the drop in trip should also help a horse with clear ability at this level.

Fresh Speculation got off the mark at the seventh attempt over hurdles at Ffos Las last month over this trip, but he had made the frame in four of his previous five starts so he's progressing nicely. This is tougher up in class and weight, but he's going the right direction. Haarar had a spell where he finished 2211 over hurdles earlier this year and shrpened up for the winter by wining over 1m6f at Redcar on the flat in early November and followed that up with a runner-up finish at Haydock four weeks ago despite being badly hampered by a loose horse.

On any given day, I'd be more than happy to put any of these forward as a potential placer, but I only want to take three and El Granjero will miss out based on recent form, even though the potential is there, leaving me with (2) Benassi, (6) Fresh Speculation & (7) Haarar.

Race 3 @ 1.30...Ithaka was a winner at Market Rasen two starts ago, having made the frame in his two previous starts. 3m1½f at Catterick off a higher mark probably over stretched him last time, so the drop back to 3m could help him back into the frame at what might be a nice price. Just Chasing May won here over 2m4f back in mid-June prior to a break of over four months. Since returning in late October, he has made the frame in all three starts and was third of eight over 2m7f on soft ground last time out and should go well again off the same mark.

Twp Stori is 321251 over hurdles in 2024 with the worst result being a reasonable 5th of 14 here at Uttoxeter over an inadequately short 2m after a break of nearly six months, which he used as a stepping stone to a win over 2m7f on soft ground at Lingfield last time out and a 5lb rise might stop stop him being involved again. All Under Control has taken a while to get going over hurdles, failing to even make the frame in any of her first six starts with only one (10 length) defeat of less than 37 lengths! She then somehow put all that behind her as she battled gamely to win by half a length at Fontwell three weeks ago. This tougher and she's up in weight and trip.

I'm not sure that All Under Control can go well twice in a row based on her previous runs, so I'm going with (5) Ithaka (who might be a nice E/W bet with bookies paying four places), (6) Just Chasing May & (9) Twp Stori here.

Race 4 @ 2.00...Eaton Anne finished 322 in his first three efforts over hurdles but was a very disappointing last of four beaten by 25 lengths at Plumpton on his last start when sent off as the Evens favourite on his handicap debut. It's too soon to write him off based on his three previous runs and he has had a wind op since that last run. Port Or Starboard has made the frame in 12 of 22 career starts, which is what you want from a placepot pick and his form in 2023 read 621333233 before he took a year off. His first run of 2024 was three weeks ago here at Uttoxeter when not disgraced in a 9 length defeat. He's entitled to come on for the run and is now rated at 3lbs lower than his last win and 5lbs lower than this time last year.

Dickens made his own seasonal reappearance after an even longer break of 530 days to finish a very creditable 5th of 14 at Chepstow three months ago travelling strongly for much of the contest he was only eventually beaten by just over five lengths and he too should benefit for the outing. Oneforthefairgreen was second of eight at Leicester six weeks ago, beaten by just over two lengths off the back of a five month break, but didn't seem suited by the step up to 2m2½f at Exeter last time out and now reverts back to 2m, whilst wearing a visor for the first time.

I don't think there's much between the four I've shortlisted, but I need to omit one and the unlucky horse is going to be Dickens, leaving me with (2) Eaton Anne, (4) Port or Starboard & (9) Oneforthefairgreen.

Race 5 @ 2.30...Grove Road is proving to be a better hurdler than we was over fences, finishing 114 in his last three, although that last effort wasn't great whe he faded from contention in the final quarter mile on his way to a 33 length defeat as 4th of 10. That said, he's now 5lbs lower, 2½f back in trip and was going well prior to LTO, so he might not be out of this completely, if he can transfer some of that recent form back to the bigger obstacles. Jessie Lightfoot has had a good year over fences so far, finishing in the frame in seven (two wins) of her ten starts. I'm happy to overlok her latest effort when racing from out of the handicap at Class 3 and the drop back to Class 5 should show her in a better light.

Ali Star Bert gets good to soft or softer ground, gets 2m7f to 3m3f readily and has three wins and four runner-up finishes from his last eleven starts. He's a former course and distance winner, who runs off the same mark as his last win and had been the runner-up in two of his last three. The only potential fly in the ointment is that he has failed to complete the race in three of those four unplaced runs in his last eleven starts, which is why he might be a double-digit price at the off. Croagh Patrick has plenty of experience under his belt and has made the frame in 16 of 34 over fences and comes here off the back of a runner-up finish and a win at Carlisle already this month, both at 3m2f and both on soft ground. He's up 8lbs for that recent win, but the drop back in trip and the slightly easier ground should both help him remain in contention.

My main concern from the four-runner shortlist is that Grove Road hasn't got a great record over fences, so I'll set him aside and take (5) Jessie Lightfoot, (6) Ali Star Bert & (10) Croagh Patrick.

Race 6 @ 3.05...I'm Ravenous finished 231 in his last three over hurdles prior to making all on both his handicap and chase debut where he hung on well to win by half a length. He followed that up by finishing second at Doncaster next/last time out and should be in the mix once more. Knockanore comes here off the back of two good runs where he was second of ten over 2m5f at Southwell before winning here by sixteen lengths over course and distance eleven days ago and although considerably up in weight does look the one to beat today.

Accidental Legend is interesting on chase debut, having made the frame in 8 of 17 over hurdles, winning five times. He looked like he needed the run three weeks ago when 6th of 8 here over 2m7½f, but his prior form had read 12221 and if taking to fences could go well here, although an opening mark of 113 is 7lbs higher than his last hurdles win and leaves little room for error. Lime Drop, on the other hand has nine chases under her belt, mainly in small fields and running to a consistent level finishing 223225213. She won here over 2m two starts ago, but now steps back up to 2m4f.

In card order, I really want (1) I'm Ravenous & (3) Knockanore on my tickets, but it's then a choice between the other pair and I think I might just marginally prefer the consistency of Lime Drop over the inexperience of Accidental Legend, but I think I'll leave both out.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (3) Grand Geste, (4) Pike Road & (6) Star Of Diamonds

Leg 2: (2) Benassi, (6) Fresh Speculation & (7) Haarar

Leg 3: (5) Ithaka, (6) Just Chasing May & (9) Twp Stori

Leg 4: (2) Eaton Anne, (4) Port or Starboard & (9) Oneforthefairgreen

Leg 5: (5) Jessie Lightfoot, (6) Ali Star Bert & (10) Croagh Patrick

Leg 6: (1) I'm Ravenous & (3) Knockanore

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

And that's Tix Picks done for 2024, I'll be back with you all on Thursday with the first column of 2025.

Wishing you all a very Happy New Year!

Chris

Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24

30 December 2024/in Tix Picks/by Chris Worrall

Monday's racing comes from Haydock, Taunton & Wolverhampton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Haydock...

The biggest guarantee is at Haydock, where the ground is unsurprisingly soft/heavy after the amount of rain we've had in the North West, so we'll tread carefully for our six races, starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.30...Tiger Jet is a former course and distance winner who returns from a three month break, but that's not a real concern, as he won at Cartmel on heavy ground in August after more than five months off. City Derby won four times in the summer, including three times on soft ground and although not in the same form of late, could be involved down in weight and back on slower ground.

Bushypark probably needed the run when pulled up last time out, but returns to a venue where he is 2 from over C&D and has also won at 2m7f.
Shaped as though he needed his reappearance run and he has an excellent record here. Lady In The Park returns to hurdling, where she is 31225, having struggled over fences this year. She runs off the same mark as a runner-up finish at Ayr in March and could/should go well here and has won on soft ground.

Schalke seemed to have stalled with a series of poor efforts for his former trainer, but a switch of yard has seen him make the frame in both starts for his new handlers, finishing third and then second at Bangor, both on soft ground. He's still 6lbs below his last winning mark from two years ago and it could well be his turn today.

I'll take (3) City Derby, (5) Lady In The Park & (6) Schalke from this one.

Leg 2 @ 1.00...This initially looks like a two-horse race between the top two on the card/weights.

(1) Glynn Brae won a 2m soft ground bumper on debut and then a 2m½f heavy ground hurdle before struggling at Aintree last month when fading badly late on over 2m4f on good ground. Slower ground and a shorter trip should be beneficial to him today. (2) Indeevar Bleu has also won two of his career starts and also won a 2m soft ground bumper on debut. Since that win he has raced just twice in over 21 months, but came back from 393 days off to win comfortably over 1m7½f on heavy ground at Leicester four weeks ago at this grade.

(3) Desert Halo is probably the best of the rest and although he was an 80/1 runner-up last time out, he's still a maiden after five starts and steps up in trip here, so I'll just stick with the top two on the card.

Leg 3 @ 1.30...Idalko Bihoue was a seven length winner on his second effort over fences when scoring at Cheltenham at this class/trip in October of 2023. he hasn't quite been art the same level in three runs since, but was 5th of 12 in a Grade 2 back at HQ in April but does drop in class here and is now only 3lbs higher than that last win. Classic Maestro has only failed to finish in the first two on two occasions from twelve starts, winning six times. He has already comfortably won three races this month, making all and looks the one to beat.

The Flier Begley needs to bounce back from a couple of indifferent efforts since landing back to back handicap in October at Warwick & Carlisle. He's down a couple of pounds here, so only 3lbs higher than his last win and could be a place contender. Trac probably needed the run after seven months off when last home of six at Kelso last month. The good to soft ground might also have been a little 'quick' for him too, as he was 214411 on soft/heavy last season after another modest comeback effort, so if this season goes the same way, he should be involved.

I'm least keen on The Flier Begley from my shortlist, so I'm going with (1) Idalko Bihoue, (2) Classic Maestro & (6) Trac here.

Leg 4 @ 2.00...Last year's runner-up Gold Emery was on my overnight four-runner shortlist, but he was withdrawn this morning, taking me down to the following three...

Galassian makes a chase debut after progressing nicely over hurdles culminating in a soft ground win at Bangor earlier this month. he might not have tackled a fence under Rules but has won a 3m PTP race. Wal Bucks has already had three cracks at the bigger obstacles, improving each time from 6th of 9 (11 lengths down) on debut in May to 3rd of 12 (4.5L) at Ayr last month to 2nd of 10 beaten by just a neck at Wetherby earlier this month over this trip on soft ground and a similar run puts him right in the mix.

Cream Of The West was 3121 over hurdles on soft/heavy ground in his first four starts last season and was a respectable 6th of 14 on chase debut at Hexham 19 days ago, considering the 2m4f was probably too short for him and also that he'd not raced for over eight months. Up in trip and with the benefit of a run, he could/should be involved here.

He's the weaker option of the three and he'd have been behind Gold Emery in my thoughts, too, so I'll just go with (2) Galassian & (5) Wal Bucks here.

Leg 5 @ 2.35...Smart Decision was a comfortable winner at 5/1 on his debut at Doncaster a month ago when staying on well under today's jockey. He seemed to have plenty left in the tank and on that run could be the one to beat, but Eagles Reprieve also won on debut recently, albeit a junior bumper at Wetherby, when sent off at 10/1 on soft ground.

The above pair are the two I'd want from those with a run under their belts as L'Air Du Large was last home of four on a bumper despite being the 7/4 fav and Mystical Martika was only 5th of 9, sixteen lengths down on her bumper run at Wetherby recently.

Of the pair yet to race, the interesting one has to be Itstonitejosephine. We've got the de Boinville/Henderson partnership with a filly by Irish Derby winner Jack Hobbs out of an unraced dam related to dual Grade 1 hurdle winner L'Ami Serge and when you put all of that together, she's difficult to ignore.

I'll take three here ie (2) Smart Decision, (3) Eagles Reprieve & (6) Itstonitejosephine.

Leg 6 @ 3.10...The Big Breakaway isn't the horse of two seasons ago when a decent Class 1/2 handicapper, but was second of ten at Ascot last time out and whilst beaten by some 31 lengths, was himself 20 lengths clear of the third placed horse and he's down two pounds here. Gaboriot has made the frame in 10 of 16 over fences, winning five times at trips of 3m to 4m½f and he's 4 from 5 beyond 3m. Things didn't go to plan last time out when a bad mistake and getting hampered later on contributed to him being 6th of 14, but the step up in trip should suit.

Montgomery won three on the bounce on soft/heavy ground last spring and although probably needing the run after 231 days off, was only beaten by six lengths last time out and his yard have won this race in three of the last seven renewals, including last season. The Two Amigos won the Welsh Grand National just over two years ago, but has only raced twice since. He was 7th of 17 in the Midlands National in March 2023 before a 627-day absence. he returned to action here at Haydock four weeks ago and went well for some way before weakening badly and was pulled up before the last.

Fantastikas was a 19-length third in this race last year off a mark 4lbs higher than today and he comes here off the back of a decent 3rd of 9 over 3m at Uttoxeter three weeks ago. Of this quintet, I'm going to put (2) Gaboriot, (3) Montgomery & (5) Fantastikas on my Tix bet builder.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (3) City Derby, (5) Lady In The Park & (6) Schalke

Leg 2: (1) Glynn Brae & (2) Indeevar Bleu

Leg 3: (1) Idalko Bihoue, (2) Classic Maestro & (6) Trac

Leg 4: (2) Galassian & (5) Wal Bucks

Leg 5: (2) Smart Decision, (3) Eagles Reprieve & (6) Itstonitejosephine

Leg 6: (2) Gaboriot, (3) Montgomery & (5) Fantastikas

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, everyone!
Chris

Tix Picks, Saturday 28/12/24

28 December 2024/in Tix Picks/by Chris Worrall

Saturday's racing comes from Catterick, Leicester, Leopardstown, Limerick, Newbury, Newcastle & Southwell.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?