Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.
It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...
3.55 Wetherby
5.50 Clonmel
7.30 Southwell
8.00 Southwell
...and I suspect that of the races above, we'll get more Instant Expert data from the 8.00 Southwell, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard tapeta...
Our sole LTO winner, Glamorous Express has won three of his last seven and comes here on a hat-trick after wins at both Kempton and Newcastle this month. Westmorian and Digital both had top three finishes last time around and were winners two and three races ago respectively, whilst One More Dream has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last five runs. Conversely High Velocity, Temple Bruer and Em Jay Kay are winless in 7, 8 and 11 races respectively.
Temple Bruer's bid to break his losing run might be helped by dropping down a class and sole mare in the race, Miss Bella Brand is down two levels today. hat-trick seeker Glamorous Express moves the opposite way and steps up two classes, whilst Westmorian, Dandy's Derriere and out-of-form bottom-weight Em Jay Kay are all up one class.
Six of the fiedl have raced in the last three weeks, but Em Jay Kay has been away for two months and Miss Bella Brand for three months. It's 19 weeks since Digital last raced, during which time he has moved from Karl Burke to Ruth Carr and the longest lay off of all is the near five month absence of out-of-form Temple Bruer.
All ten runners have won at least once over today's trip and only three (Temple Bruer, Glamorous Express and Dandy's Derriere are yet to land a race here at Southwell. Admittedly that's off just 1, 0 and 3 previous visits respectively. Of the seven former Southwell winners, only three (Mountain Warrior, Miss Bella Brand and Em Jay Kay) have scored over course and distance at the same time and our two-year Instant Expert form overview looks like this...
...where Mountain Warrior looks the best suited from recent races. We're a bit shy on Class 4 wins across the board (4 from 30), if truth be told with Miss Bella Brand struggling the most at this grade. Overall Em Jay Kay looks the most vulnerable at 2 from 14 on standard going and 1 from 9 at 6f and that's from a career record of just 2 wins from 20, all on the A/W. He's still 2lbs higher than his last win, despite 11 consecutive defeats and I suspect that will become 12 today. He has however made the frame in half of his six course appearances including one win according to the place data from that above graphic...
In almost 60 similar races since the switch to tapeta here at Southwell, horses drawn higher have seemed to have been at a disadvantage, with those drawn beyond stall bearing the brunt as I suppose you'd expect with that left-hand turn...
That, of course doesn't mean that hat-trick seeker Glamorous Express can't win from stall 9, but his race tactics are going to have to be spot on from so wide out and in those 50-odd races above, it has paid to get out quickly...
and the more prominent a horse has raced, the better the chances of winning have been with hold-up horses faring really badly. So, i suppose the last thing you'd want is a highly-drawn hold-up horses, unless he was a really fast finisher who didn't mind a bit of traffic. The pace/draw heat map is pretty clear about what has and hasn't worked in those races above...
The fact that high drawn leaders have been the most successful would appear to flip the draw stats around and what that says to me is that the pace of the race holds greater value than the draw without saying we should ignore the draw of course. So, we now need to look at how this field normally races to make an informed decision about how we think they might run here...
...and it looks like Digital might well set the pace ahead of One More Dream with hat-trick seeking Glamorous Express and Temple Bruer closer to the rear of the field. If we re-arrange that pace chart into draw order, we get this...
Summary
Glamorous Express will be popular after two wins already this month, but he's up two classes, carries a penalty and seems badly suited by the pace/draw stats. Westmorian, Digital and One More Dream also come here in decent form. Digital and One More Dream both scored well on the place aspect of Instant Expert, but it was top-weight Mountain Warrior who was the IE pick of the pack.
The pace/draw stats pointed to Digital, Miss Bella Brand, Dandy's Derriere, One More Dream, Westmorian and Mountain Warrior having the best chances and on the basis of who's ticking the most boxes it's the names of Digital and One More Dream who feature most followed by Mountain Warrior and Westmorian.
I'd expect One More Dream to fare better here than Digital, so he'd be my pick today.
I looked at he market at 4pm, but no prices were available and having looked at a few tissues, I expected the market to look something like...
Westmorian 10/3-7/2
Glamorous Express 4/1-9/2
One More Dream 5/1
Mountain Warrior 17/2
Dandys Derriere 19/2
Digital 19/2
Temple Bruer 12/1
Em Jay Kay 16/1
Miss Bella Brand 17/1
High Velocity 18/1
...and I was going to suggest One More Dream at 5's as my pick with E/W options from Mountain Warrior and Digital with Westmorian being too short.
However, Bet365 went 'live' just before I did and here are their prices as of 4.10pm...
...which are pretty close to the estimates, so I stick with my decision(s).
Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.
HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!
[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]
In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...
...have generated the following runners for me to consider...
...14-day form...
...30-day form...
...and 1-year course form...
...with the best on paper of all those races looking like the last where Mount Athos will attempt to retain the race he won last year, the 7.00 Kempton, a 6-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 7f on standard to slow polytrack...
It's another small field that looks really competitive and my early thoughts were that all bar possibly Soar Above could have a chance of winning this.
MOUNT ATHOS is three from here over course and distance and won this race last year, but is now rated some 9lbs higher. He was a course and distance winner two starts ago of 4lbs lower than today but was a disappointing 4/5 fav at Wolverhampton last time out off today's mark when only 5th of 8, beaten by 7 lengths. Could very easily bounce back on his return to Kempton.
ROHAAN has also won over course and distance, albeit way back in December 2020 and was only beaten by just over a length last time out at Lingfield. He has been eased a pouind here, which should help a horse deemed good enough to run in last season's Gr 1 Champions Sprint Stakes at Ascot.
MOSTABSHIR makes just a second appearance in a handicap some 144 days after his last run when 5th of 9 at Chelmsford on handicap debut, going down by over four lengths. He's down a furlong and down 2lbs in the ratings too, which should make him a little more competitive. He won on his only previous visit to Kempton, landing a Class 4 Novice event over a mile on his debut in November 2022.
MUMS TIPPLE drops in class today and is noted as a fast finisher, but recent form hasn't been great, losing eight on the bounce and was last home of six in a Listed race at Wolverhampton earlier this month. He now seeks an upturn in form, more than a year after his last win. has won a couple over 7f, but his better form has been over 6f.
ARABIAN STORM only raced four times before today, twice each at Newcastle and Newmarket and was only beaten by ¾-length behind Shouldvebeenaring in a Listed race at HQ last time out. He has a win (7f at Newcastle) and two places from those four starts and now drops in class for his handicap debut off what might be a lenient mark of 95, seeing as Shouldvebeenaring was rated 113 earlier this month. The fly in the ointment here is that he hasn't raced for near enough eleven months and might possibly need the run.
SOAR ABOVE has won three times over course and distance, but unlike Mount Athos, it has taken him 22 attempts to attain that feat and he was was runner-up here over track/trip last time out, but that was at Class 4 off a mark of 82 with a 7lb claimer on board. The claimer has gone, he runs off 82 again and is up two classes. Add in the fact that he is on a run of sixteen defeats and you can see why I think he might struggle.
That recent poor run of form is starkly highlighted by Instant Expert, which suggests the top three in the weights (and the three drawn lowest) should be the ones to focus on...
...although Soar Above has had the knack of running well enough to make the frame without winning...
...but his Class 2 record remains poor with most of his placed efforts coming at Class 4. Instant Expert highlighted the three drawn lowest and the draw stats for similar past races would appear to favour those in stalls 1-4...
...which would also be good news for Arabian Storm on his comeback run. His fitness is sure to be tested here as he'll face opposition for an early lead from last year's winner Mount Athos who does like to make all where possible, whilst Rohaan looks the polar opposite...
...and this hold-up approach could well be Rohaan's undoing if we then look at how those 90 previous Kempton races have panned out...
Summary
None of the field won last time out, but Mount Athos has been a standing dish over course and distance. He was the pick of Instant Expert along with Rohaan and Mostabshir and this trio look to have the best of the draw along with Arabian Storm.
Mount Athos and Arabian Storm have the best pace profiles here with Mostabshir there or thereabouts too, but it's last year's winner, Mount Athos who ticks most boxes today and would be my pick. Rohaan might get left behind if there's plenty of early pace, but both Mostabshir and Arabian Storm are coming off lengthy breaks. I think the challenge to Mount Athos comes from this trio and if pushed to suggest one, I'd hope that the 144 day absence isn't enough to upset Mostabshir.
All of which appears to be backed up by the 4.30pm call from Hills...
The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.
GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points
The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.
HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.
N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.
Unfortunately, my fairly restrictive settings (you get to choose your own) have generated no qualifiers, but as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...
4.20 Taunton
5.45 Southwell
7.30 Dundalk
7.45 Southwell
...the best of which (on paper, at least) looks like being the 4.20 Taunton, a 6-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle on good to soft ground over what will be a shade beyond 2m1f after rail movements...
My initial thoughts were that this might be quite competitive despite the small field with only top-weights Wolf Prince and Manor Park looking like they might struggle, but let's take a closer look at the whole field...
WOLF PRINCE made the frame in three consecutive races in the summer of 2022, but has disappointed in two runs this season after taking nearly 18 months off. Now without a win in 14 races since mid-October 2021, it's hard to see him landing this one, although he has won at both 2m and 2m2f.
MANOR PARK drops a class here as he returns from eight months off the track, during which time he has moved yards. he did win two starts ago at this class/trip at Newton Abbot back in July 2023, but flopped next/last time out a fortnight later at Market Rasen and a watching brief is advised here, even if he is 4 from 12 at 2m1f.
CELTIC ART has won over 2m in the past and is 3 from 5 on good to soft ground, so won't want any more rain to fall here. He was a winner in both January & February last year and again in November, but with three indifferent runs in between. Since then, he has run poorly on a couple of occasions, but looked like coming back into a bit of form a 4-length third of none over this course and distance five weeks ago.
AMELIA'S DANCE is a bit of an enigma, she loves it here with three of her four career wins coming over course and distance, but she's only 4 from 34 overall and has no win since scoring over track and trip in December 2022. She has been beaten eleven times since then, but has been the runner-up in each of her last three outings and in five of her last six, so she wouldn't be winning out of turn. Sadly her run of near misses means she's still 10lbs higher than her last winning mark and she's up a class today.
TOONAGH WARRIOR is much less experienced (just 11 starts) than the four runners above (who have raced 30+ times each), but has gone well since starting hurdling last September, finishing 321264 in six starts. The 6th place can be excused, as he'd stepped from 1m7½f to 2m4f, but his other four defeats at 1m7½f-2m were by an average of less than five lengths and he's eased 2lbs here today, but he is up one class.
HARA KIRI comes here on a hat-trick but will have to contend with stepping up two classes. He has won his last couple by narrow margins and his last run was littered with errors and he'll probably not get away with them at this level. That said, going and trip are both fine for him and he has only failed to make the frame twice in nine starts. He's also up 3lbs here, so will definitely need to work a bit harder today.
And Instant Expert confirms that Amelia's Dance has found wins hard to come by...
...on good to soft (1 from 9) and at Class 3 (0 from 9), but that she loves it here (3/8 and 3/6 over C&D), whilst Manor Park has also struggled at the going, class, and course. The trip shouldn't be an issue for most of these, but despite a smattering of 'green', there's no absolute standout on the win stats. That said, the field only has a combined strike rate of 13.8% (24 from 174), so we shouldn't have expected much more. Hopefully, we'll glean a little bit extra from the place stats...
...where Celtic Art is probably the pick of the pack, but Amelia's Dance looks more of a contender with some solid numbers from a decent sample size of races. Manor Park still looks out of his depth here and if he runs like he normally does, then he's going to be playing catchup later in the race too...
...which might leave him adrift as there might well be plenty of early pace. Celtic Art likes to get on with things, as does Wolf Prince, whilst Amelia's Dance was only headed deep into the final furlong last time out and it's those runners on the front end who tend to fare best in these contests...
Summary
Having looked at the race again, it's every bit as competitive as I thought it might be and you could easily make a case for four of them and the 5pm market seems to reflect this...
I'm not seeing a great deal of value in that price about Hara Kiri if truth be told, as he'll need considerable improvement if he's to complete the hat-trick. I don't think I'll even place a bet in this one (which is perfectly fine/acceptable, of course), but the one I probably would have gone with would be Celtic Art. He's no standout here, but ticks a few boxes.
Amelia's Dance will give her usual gutsy Taunton showing, but she's out of form and too high in the weights, so Toonagh Warrior might be the 'surprise package' here. Could be worth watching with a cup of tea, though, even if I've no cash down.
Monday’s free feature of the day is full access to the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.
The free races of the day on Monday are...
3.20 Exeter
3.35 Huntingdon
6.00 Newcastle
...from which I'm going to look at the 3.35 Huntingdon, a Class 5, 5yo+ handicap chase over what will effectively be 2m 4.3f after a 97 yard rail adjustment. The track is right-handed, the going is expected to good to soft and here's the card...
None of these managed to win their last race, but Calvic at least finish third, but Stumps or Slips, Hector Jaguen and Cloudy Wednesday all failed to get round.
Top-weight Icaque de L'isle and Family Business both drop down a class here and Calvic is the only runner not wearing any headgear or equipment.
All bar Stumps or Slips have raced in the last 8 weeks, but a 209-day absence for 'Stumps' could be an issue here. although he, like Family Business, does at least have some winning form at this kind of trip, whilst Master Malcolm and Cloudy Wednesday are both former course and distance winners...
Instant Expert looks like a sea of red...
...but Stumps or Slips and Master Malcolm do manage to emerge with some credit, especially the latter off a mark only 2lbs higher than his last win, whilst the place stats from those races...
...firmly bring the likes of Icaque de l'isle, Hector Jaguen and Calvic into the mix along with Master Malcolm. Of these four, our pace tab suggests that Master Malcolm and Icaque de l'isle are likely to be up with the pace early doors...
...with Stumps or Slips the back marker. We can then use this info when we check our Pace Analyser, which tells us that...
...those horses that race prominently have the best chance of making the frame, but they can't always catch the leaders, who win more often than any other running style.
Summary
Leaders win most often in this type of contest and Master Malcolm looks like being the front runner. He was also the standout in a fairly mediocre-looking Instant Expert and whilst not in the best form of late, I think he has a good chance of at least a place ands at 7/1, I'd be happy to take him as an E/W option here.
I suspect that Icaque de l'isle, Hector Jaguen and Calvic will also go well, but none are going to be longer to take a punt in my opinion.
Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.
HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit columnand as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...
...and they have generated the following pair of runners for me to check out...
...30-day form...
...and 1-year form...
...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday were due to cover...
1.50 Doncaster
2.30 Bangor
3.50 Newbury
5.20 Doncaster
5.30 Newcastle
7.45 Wolverhampton
...but I think I'm going to bypass all of them and look at the 1.30 Bangor, an interesting-looking (on paper at least!), 8-runner (fingers crossed), Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m3½f on soft ground...
As is often the case with eight-runner fields, I find myself mentally splitting the field in half and on this occasion, I can't help but feel like I should be focusing upon (alphabetically) Cheddleton, Jungle Jack, Pickanumber and Uncle Bert at the expense of the other four runners, but what happens next might change my mind!
Of those four I seem to favour, all bar Jungle Jack (who was a runner-up by a neck) managed to win last time out and Pickanumber has won each of his last two. Elsewhere Llandinabo Lad is the only one without a win in seven, having lost fifteen on the bounce since landing a 1m7½f Listed Novice Hurdle at Haydock way back in November 2020!
Only Willaston and Banjaxed ran at this grade last time with the rest of the field all up in class here. Five are up from Class 3, but bottom weight and hat-trick seeker Pickanumber is up two levels for what will be just his second run in a handicap.
My main protagonists have all raced in the last 18-36 days, as has West To The Bridge, but Banjaxed, Llandinabo Lad and Willaston have yet to race in 2024 and now reappear after breaks of 112, 119 and 147 days respectively and all three could well be excused for needing the run.
The bottom pair in the weights, Llandinabo Lad and Pickanumber are the only ones yet to win at a similar trip to this one, although the former has won at this track, landing a 2m1f Novice Hurdle here in October 2020. Cheddleton and West To The Bridge have both won 2m½f hurdle contests here, but only top weight Jungle Jack is credited with a past course and distance success, which he achieved by winning this race last year off just 4lbs lower than today's mark.
The field's relevant form under similar conditions looks like this...
...with Jungle Jack the clear standout. The majority of the field are relatively inexperienced under these conditions, but West to the Bridge has gone well on soft ground, as has Uncle Bert, but West's record at this grade leaves something to be desired at just one win from twelve attempts and the place stats say that he only made the frame in 3 of the 11 defeats...
Similar past contests here at Bangor have certainly been kind to those runners happy to get on with it from an early point in the race...
...as those waited with have struggled to land much of a blow here from both a win and a place perspective, which based on this field's most recent efforts would give Llandinabo Lad his best chance of breaking that long losing run...
and it's also good news for Pickanumber who has pretty much made all to win his last two. Jungle Jack led for vritually all of his last race before losing in the final strides and although Cheddleton was held back last time out, he's normally right up with the pace. His last win/run was in a four-runner contest at Newcastle that had very little pace anyway.
Summary
I started by saying that I felt like I should be focusing upon (alphabetically) Cheddleton, Jungle Jack, Pickanumber and Uncle Bert at the expense of the other four runners and whilst this quartet haven't fully convinced me just yet, none of the others have made me think they might force their way in.
Of my four, all are up in class (two classes for Pickanumber), only Jungle Jack has won over course and distance and he was the pick on Instant Expert. He also scored well on the pace, so I think at that these odds available at 4.45pm Friday...
It would be Jungle Jack at 7/2 with an 11/1 E/W option on Cheddleton.
Despite the Cheltenham Festival still fresh in the mind and the Grand National yet to be run - this Saturday sees the new flat turf season getting going at Doncaster, with the ultra-competitive Lincoln Handicap as the feature.
While there is also a decent jumping card at Newbury and Bangor – meaning there’s something for everyone and 9 LIVE ITV4 races in total.
As always, we’ve got it all covered with key trends and stats.
DONCASTER Horse Racing Trends
1.20 - William Hill Doncaster Mile Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m ITV4
10/10 – Last ran 4+ months ago
9/10 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Rated 106+
8/10 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
7/10 – Had won over at least 1m before
6/10 – Winners from stalls 2 or 4
5/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Had won 6+ times before
4/10 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/10 – Trained by Roger Varian (3 of last 7)
3/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of the last 6)
7 of the last 9 winners from stalls 5 or lower
8 of the last 9 winners aged 4 or 5 years-old
1.50 – William Hill EBF Brocklesby Stakes (GBB Race) Cl2 (2yo) 5f ITV
14/16 – Won this on their debut runs
13/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Foaled in Feb or March
9/16 – Placed favourites
7/16 – Irish bred
5/16 – Horses from stall 2 that finished 1st or 2nd
5/16 – Ridden by a claimer
4/16 – Trained by Bill Turner (6 in total: 1996, 2002, 2006, 2008, 2011 & 2013)
4/16 – Winning favourites (co & joint)
3/16 – Winners from stall 2
3/16 – Winners from stall 10
2/16 – Ridden by Charles Bishop (2 of the last 4)
0/16 – Winners from stall 1
Trainer Richard Fahey has won 2 of the last 6 runnings (4 wins in total)
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 9/2
Note: 2006 running was staged at Redcar, 2007 running was staged at Newcastle
2.25 – William Hill Spring Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4
18/21 – Carried 8-13 or more
17/21 – Finished fourth or worse last time out
16/21 – Aged 4 years-old
15/21 – Won over a mile before
14/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/21 – Won from a single-figure draw
3/21 – Winners from stalls 3-7 (inclusive)
2/21 – Winning favourites (non in the last 9 runnings)
2/21 – Won last time out
2/21 – Won a race at Doncaster before
Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2010 & 2014
Just 1 winner older than 6 in the last 21 years
8 of the last 9 winners aged 4 or 5 years-old
Harswell Duke (10/1) won the race in 2023
Arthur’s Realm (11/2) won the race in 2022
3.00 – William Hill Cammidge Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4
18/19 – Aged 7 or younger
17/19 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
17/19 – Had won no more than 5 times before
17/19 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
17/19 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Had won over 6f before
12/19 – Last ran 4 months or longer ago
12/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/19 – Rated 101+
11/19 – Raced at Doncaster, Ascot, Lingfield or Windsor last time out
11/19 – Had raced at Doncaster before
11/19 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
9/19 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/19 – Unplaced favourites
4/19 – Had won at Doncaster before
3/19 – Won last time out
3/19 – Winning favourites (or joint)
No winners from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 14 runnings
7 of the last 14 winners came between stalls 9-16 (inc)
3.35 – William Hill Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4
19/20 – Aged 6 or younger
18/20 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
17/20 – Had won over at least 1m before
16/20 – Had won between 2-4 times before
15/20 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
15/20 – Having their first run of the flat season
14/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
13/20 – Unplaced favourites
12/20 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
11/20 – Aged 4 years-old
10/20 – Officially rated between 95-100
10/20 – Placed first or second last time out
9/20 – Had raced at Doncaster before
8/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/20 – Won last time out
8/20 – Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
6/20 – Placed horses from stall 12 (2 winners)
5/20 - Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
4/20 – Winning favourites (just 1 in the last 10 runnings)
3/20 – Trained by William Haggas
2/20 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/20 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/20 – Trained by John Quinn
2/20 - Trained by John Gosden
2/20 - Ridden by Benoit De La Sayette (2 of last 3)
2/20 – Ridden by James Doyle (2 of last 4)
10 of the last 13 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-4 in weight
Just 1 winner has carried 9-10 in the last 37 runnings
7 of the last 9 winners aged 4 or 5
The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 14/1
Just two back-to-back winners in the past (Ob, 1906/07 & Babur 1957/58)
Migration (18/1) won the race in 2023
Johan (28/1) won the race in 2022
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle
NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends
2:10 – Bet In-Play On Racing At BetVictor Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m3f ITV4
3 previous runs
3/3 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
2/3 – Carried between 10-9 and 10-10
1/3 – Winning favourite
Trainer Tom Lacey won the race in 2023
Trainer Sam Thomas won the race in 2022
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2021
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 25% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 26% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has a 21% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Ben Pauling is just 2 from 36 with his hurdles at the track
Jockey Sean Bown is just 1 from 26 riding over hurdles at the track
2:40 – Get Best Odds Guaranteed At BetVictor Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+ 0-150) 2m4f ITV4
9/9 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/9 – Aged 7 or older
8/9 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
8/9 – Favourites finished first or second
7/9 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
7/9 - Won no more than 3 times over fences
6/9 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
6/9 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
5/9 – Had run over fences at Newbury before
3/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/9 – Winning favourites
Heltenham won the race in 2024
9/11 - Carried 11-2 or less in weight
9/11 - Aged 5 or 6 years-old
9/11 - Won 1-2 times before
8/11 - Had not run at Newbury before
9/11 - Finished in the top 3 last time out
8/11 – Returned 7/1 or bigger
8/11 - Had won over 2m4f or further before
8/11 - Ran in the last 6 weeks
6/11 - Placed favourites
6/11 - Irish bred winners
6/11 - Aged 5 years-old
6/11 - Ran at Doncaster (4) or Exeter (2) last time out
5/11 - Won last time out
4/11 - winning favourites
2/11 - Trained by Charlie Longsdon
Note: 2013 running was staged at Kempton
Just one past running
Jungle Jack (9/4 jfav) won the race in 2023
Trainer Donald McCain won the race in 2023
Trainer Donald McCain has a 25% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Olly Murphy has a 23% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has a 22% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Venetia Williams is just 1-from-21 (5%) with her hurdlers at the track
Jockey Brian Hughes has a 33% record riding over hurdles at the track
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/stt.png320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2024-03-22 13:33:132024-03-22 08:03:33Saturday TV Trends (23rd March 2024)
Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My chosen settings for the report...
...have yielded just one qualifier for Friday...
...but I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...
3.00 Newbury
3.12 Lingfield
3.33 Newbury
7.30 Dundalk
And I think I'll take a look at One More Dream in the 6.45 Newcastle, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 7f on standard tapeta...
This looks like a pretty open contest with several holding claims. Featured runner One More Dream has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last four, Lahab has a win and three places from four, Abruzzo Mia and Mumayaz both won last time out, whilst Danielsflyer has won each of his last three. Feel The Need and Streak Lightning are, however, winless in twelve and ten races respectively.
Streak Lightning's hope of breaking that long losing run don't appear to be helped by him stepping up a class here, as are One More Dream, Abruzzo Mia and bottom-weight Rory, whilst Mumayaz is up two grades today. All bar Feel The Need have had a run in the last three weeks, but he now returns from almost six months off, during which time he has switched yards and now makes a debut for Michael Herrington.
All nine runners have already won over this trip with only Lahab, Feel The Need, Mumayaz and Rory yet to score over course and distance. The latter pair, Mumayaz (over 6f) and Rory (over 5f & 6f) have, however, already won on this track and Instant Expert will document the field's form over the last two year's under similar conditions...
Fast0finisher Starshiba has been decent across the board, if unspectacular, whilst One More Dream has a great record at track/trip. Abruzzo Mia's numbers are creditable and Danielsflyer is probably the standout here. Streak Lightning has found it hard to win on going/class and distance and the going certainly hasn't favoured Mumayaz or Rory with the latter also struggling to win over 7f, although they have managed to make the frame in several of their defeats, according to the place data for those very races...
...which suggests that all of these have done well enough to make the frame quite often, whilst Feel The Need runs on the A/W for the first time. His introduction to this sphere of racing will come from a fairly high (7 of 9) draw, but our draw analyser suggests that this might be helpful from both a win and place perspective...
Personally, I remain unconvinced about draw bias on straight tracks, but that above is what the data tells us. I'm more inclined to take notice of any perceived pace bias than the draw stats if truth be told and for those 150+ races above, our Pace Analyser says...
...that leaders win more than their fair share of races here, but that those just following closely behind do have a tendency to pick them off and 'steal' the win. Any further back into mid-field can be a difficult place to win from, as those runners have only won 43.8% of the races despite having 54.9% of the runners and if we look at the field's last few outings...
This could be good news for Lahab, Abruzzo Mia, Starshiba and One More Dream and if we look at the pace/draw heat map...
...Abruzzo Mia would be the one to take from that piece of data.
Summary
An open-looking contest and when I wrote the piece just ater 3pm on Thursday I had no odds to work with, but I was more interested in (alphabetically) Abruzzo Mia (Form/Instant Expert/Pace & Draw), Danielsflyer (on form/IE), Lahab (form/pace), One More Dream (Form/H4C/IE) and Starshiba (IE/pace).
I've only ruled four out at this stage, but will return later with a decision, once I've seen the market and decided which (if any) represent enough value for me to want to suggest putting money down
OK, it's now 6.30pm and here's the market...
..and based on the above, I think I'm just going to play a small E/W bet on Starshiba. If pushed for a winner, my tentative selection would be Abruzzo Mia ahead of One More Dream.
Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.
It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...
3.15 Chepstow
3.58 Cork
5.20 Ludlow
8.30 Southwell
...from which I think we'll have a look at the Ludlow Gold Cup, aka the 5.20 Ludlow, an 8-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ Open Hunters Chase, taking in 16 fences over a right-handed 2m4f on soft ground...
...where I suspect that both Espoir de Guye and Before Midnight will go off at rather short odds, but that leaves the door open for a possible E/W punt, of course.
Espoir de Guye actually won last time out, as did Shang Tang, but none of the other six even made the frame with half of the field (Captain Tommy, Dalahast, Hazard Collonges and Missed Tee) all being pulled up. Captain Tommy did win two starts ago, but most of these are struggling for form right now.
Espoie de Guye, Royal Act and Missed Tee are all up a class here, but Shang Tang drops down a level whilst both Before Midnight and Dalahast drop down two classes, with only joint top weight Captain Tommy and Hazard Collonges having raced at class 4 last time around. Hazard Collonges has struggled to complete races of late and now wears cheekpieces for the first time as he also seeks to defy a near 16-week layoff.
Royal Act and Before Midnight have been rested for 58 & 80 days respectively, but the other five have all had a run in the last month or so. It's not a handicap contest, of course, which means that Before Midnight is best off at the weights carrying just 11-12 despite a rating of 129, putting him7lbs better off than next best Espoir de Guye, but Espoir is one of just three runners here (along with Shang Tang and Missed Tee) to have won at a similar trip to this one, whilst only Captain Tommy (via a 3m Hunter Chase last month) has tasted success at this track. That said, only Royal Act, Shang Tang and Missed Tee have tackled fences here before according to Instant Expert...
Instant Expert is often good at helping us pick a winner or narrow down the field and it's more of a narrowing job today with all that red above! Most of these are very inexperienced under these conditions so to be 0 from 2 or 3 is no great disaster just yet, but I am more concerned about Captain Tommy, Royal Act and Before Midnight on soft ground, Royal Act at this grade and trip, whilst Before Midnight hasn't won at this trip either in six attempts, although he has made the frame in half of them...
...and if it's an E/W challenger we're looking for, then Captain Tommy must now have jumped the queue somewhat. Royal Act still looks poor and I certainly won't be backing him and I do still have reservations about Before Midnight on this soft ground. That said, he is best off at the weights and does drop two classes here and our Pace Analyser says he'll be right in the mix if he's prepared to hit the front end early doors...
Unfortunately for him, he's not that type at all and tends to race in mid-division or at least has done in his more recent efforts...
...with the pace chart suggesting that Royal Act will attempt to set the tempo of the contest with the likes of Captain Tommy and Espoir de Guye in fairly close attendance. Royal Act has set the pace in each of his last four outings and they have seen him pulled up 4 out at Ffos Las and then beaten three times by 53, 83 and 69 lengths respectively, so I'm not too concerned about him 'nicking it' from the front!
Summary
The early (only Bet365 had odds at 5.10pm Wednesday) indications are that the bookies expect a tight two-horse race and that Royal Act is indeed, a no-hoper here...
...but I'm not convinced that Before Midnight gets near to Espoir de Guye today. I'm certainly not backing Espoir here, but he's far more likely to win than any of the others and is my 'pick'. From the evidence above, you won't be too surprised to read that Captain Tommy would be my E/W horse in this one and he could even challenge for the runner-up spot of things fall his way.
Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.
HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!
[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]
In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...
...haven't generated any runners at all for me to consider and I'm not massively keen on any of the 'free' races for different reasons, so I'm going to look at one of the day's joint highest-rated races, the 3.50 Haydock, an 8-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase on soft/heavy ground. The trip is 3m 160yds after rail movements and these are the runners facing 22 fences today...
My initial thoughts were that this might well be two races in one with (racecard order) Jubilee Express, Robyndzone, O'Connell and Ali Star Bert battling it out for positions 1-4 and the remainder all trying to be next best.
Bottom weight Ali Star Bert is the only LTO winner in the field and comes here seeking a hat-trick and a fourth win in five starts, having been beaten by a nose three starts ago. He's clearly the 'form' horse here, but Robyndzone has two wins (but also two incomplete runs) from his last four and has three wins and a runner-up finish from six starts. Atakan is also two (plus a place) from four, whilst only Gold Emery has failed to win any of his last seven, having won just once (on debut) in his eight career starts and he's 0/6 over fences.
Only Jubilee Express and Robyndzone raced at this grade last time out with the former a one length runner-up. Top-weight Conkwell legend drops down after some disappointing Class 2 efforts, whilst the other five runners are all up from Class 4, which shouldn't help Atakan who was 4th LTO or Gold Emery/Hold The Note who were both pulled up and Atakan now wears a tongue-tie for the first time.
All eight have raced in the last 2-5 weeks or so, so there's none quickly turned back out nor should any be rusty enough to 'need the run', but they are a bit shy on course/distance form, although Robyndzone won here on heavy ground over course and distance on his penultimate run and Atakan did win over 3m4½f on soft ground at Plumpton two starts ago, a victory that skews the Instant Expert stats in his favour somewhat...
Initial concerns here are the lack of wins for Conkwell Legend/Gold Emery (going) and Hold The Note (class) and also the temptation to be sucked in by Atakan's sole soft ground/class/distance win at Plumpton. O'Connell is also some 11lbs higher than his last win and he's 4lbs higfher than when finishing as runner-up last time out. I'm aware that there's more to handicapping than a simple punishment for running well, but if he couldn't win any of his last three outings off marks of 110, 111 and 111, is he likely to now win off 115?
There's not much else to glean from the above and I'm hoping for a bit more help from the place data...
This marks Conkwell Legend's card and re-affirms Hold The Note's lack of form at Class 3 and I've probably seen enough to discount them at this stage, unless there's a huge pace bias to be had in their favour.
Pace is an interesting concept and often a misleading term, especially in NH racing. Pace is more an assessment of race tempo, getting your horse in the right filed position and choosing the right tactics, rather than pace meaning to blast out quickly. That said, staying chases on difficult ground here at Haydock have suited those racing further forward who have (a) kept themselves out of trouble and (b) been able to dictate the tempo of the race from the front. Those racing in the front half of the field have won 70% of the races shown below from just 44.7% of the runners...
...with those leading the way faring best of all. 50 of 333 (15%) runners have been deemed to have led, but they've managed to win 13 (32.5%) of the 40 races, which based on this field's most recent outings...
...could well tip the scales in Robyndzone's favour.
Summary
Robyndzone heads the pace chart and was one of my initial quartet of 'possibles', but his Instant Expert scores aren't great and he'd probably want quicker ground and a shorter trip, whilst Jubilee Express looks better suited by the conditions and won't be far off the pace. Ali Star Bert is likely to race in mid-division, which isn't ideal, but if he doesn't let the leaders get too far ahead, he's in good enough form to play catch-up especially as he receives 2-20lbs from his rivals. O'Connell is another who'll have to work from mid-field and these conditions are probably as good as he's going to get at this grade (he'd be better down in class), but he's carrying too much weight in my opinion (aren't we all?).
My first thoughts were that we've a race of two halves with these four the main protagonists, but whilst I stick by that theory, I think that this front four might also be a contest of two halves, as I see Jubilee Express to just be slightly better than Ali Star Bert, whilst O'Connell and Robyndzone battle it out to make the frame. At 3.40pm on Tuesday, Hills (only book open) had the field priced as follows...
...which isn't too far from how I have it. Of the 'other' four, all of whom are 8/1 or longer, Atakan is probably the one most likely to upset the applecart as an E/W punt.
The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.
GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points
The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.
HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.
N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.
[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...
...where Lough Leane would be of most obvious immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for this Tuesday they cover the following...
2.45 Wetherby
3.15 Wetherby
3.45 Wetherby
Lough Leane is definitely worth a look at, but having won his last three, I'd guess he's going to be fairly short in the market, so I'll revert to the 'free' races, all of which have at least one runner on The Shortlist too and the best of the three races to analyse is likely to be the last of them, as Shortlist 11pts Shighness takes on five rivals in the 3.45 Wetherby, a Class 3, 5yo+ Novices Limited Handicap Chase over 3m 87yds on soft ground...
TOP OF THE BILL had a rare off-day when well beaten over 3m½f at Exeter last time out, having won his previous two efforts, both over the same course and distance. He had been raised 8lbs for the race and the assessor has relented slightly by dropping him back 2lbs here. If that run was a one-off, he'll be right in the mix here.
COLLECTORS ITEM takes a drop in class here in a bid to arrest a run of seven defeats, three over hurdles and four over fences. He hasn't managed to make the frame over fences yet and was well beaten last time out. He was a decent hurdler, so maybe it's just taking him a while to adjust, but others make more appeal to me here.
DONNY BOY won his sole bumper, won on hurdles debut and was a runner-up in successive chases in October/December last year. Ran well enough at Doncaster last time out, but was only 4th of 7, beaten by over 8 lengths and now has a 52-day layoff to contend with.
LORD OF KERAK is the only LTO winner in the field, but that was a walkover at Leicester 11 days ago, where he just had to jump the fences and trot round. Prior to that, he was a runner-up in two of his last three races and is now on his lowest chasing mark. He's not an obvious winner, but has made the frame in half of his races.
CERENDIPITY had no joy in a pair of bumpers, but won at 2m3½f over hurdles 14 months ago. His recent chase form was good (313) last winter before being pulled up at Haydock and then falling at Doncaster prior to only finishing third of five last time out. He's genuine enough, but this is a major step up in trip that will test his unproven stamina.
SHIGHNESS wears cheekpieces for the first time here, as she edged right when beaten by 11 lengths at Carlisle a month ago. She had been running well prior to that race, finishing as a 2-length runner-up over this course and distance two months ago and then winning a 4-runner 3m1½f contest at Catterick at the start of February. has also ran well (14143) over this type of trip over hurdles, so the distance won't be an issue if she can run/jump a bit straighter here.
Instant Expert says that Donny Boy hasn't raced on soft ground in the last two years, (although he has ran badly in two heavy ground efforts), but that all of his rivals have won at least once...
Donny Boy certainly looks the weakest across the board here, whilst wins have also been hard to come across for Lord of Kerak over this trip and Cerendipity at this grade, but Lord of Kerak does look to be on a workable mark of 120 and his place stats look like keeping him in contention for a place...
...whereas Donny Boy & Cerendipity still look at sea in this grade. This pair are likely to take very different approaches to this race if their recent histories are anything to go by...
...as Cerendipity looks like he might be the one to challenge confirmed front-runner Top Of The Bill for the early lead, whilst Donny Boy looks like he'll have to come from the back of the pack if he wants to win here, which might be easier said than done, according to our Pace Analyser...
Summary
Donny Boy is the current (Monday 3.55pm) 11/4 favourite with Bet365 (5/2 with Hills), but unless I'm missing something that doesn't seem like great value about a horse placed just once in five starts over fences, whose 'best' work has been at Class 4 and doesn't seem suited by the pace profile. Instead, I'd prefer to be with Top of the Bill at 9/2 after winning two of his last three, he scores well on Instant Expert and will be up with the early pace, if not setting it.
The Shortlist horse Shighness should obviously relish the conditions here and give his usual running but at a best price of 4/1 would be too short for an E/W bet, even if he will be up with the pace. If I was to go for a longer-priced horse to make the frame, I'd be tempted by the 7/1 (or hopefully bigger later) offered about Lord of Kerak. He doesn't win many, but makes the frame in half of his races, has been in decent enough recent form and is on a dangerously low mark.
As has become somewhat customary, I've taken a few moments to publicly critique the wagering positions from which I stood to gain or lose during that marvellous week of racing action, the 2024 Cheltenham Festival.
It won't be interesting to everyone, perhaps only to very few, and I publish not to boast/wallow (*delete annually as applicable) but to share my own lessons learned from this most immersive of punting processes. As ever, stakes are irrelevant - many bet more than me, many bet less, whatever; the key is how the journey went and, to a much lesser degree, what the destination looked like.
If that makes little sense, now is a good time to plug into the below. [Usual reminder that I speak kinda slowly, so feel free to use the little 'cog' icon bottom right to increase the playback speed to something more acceptable for your lugs].
Below the video are a few screen grabs of various bets just to show when they were placed (many at the time of publication of the posts in which they were nominated as suggestions). And if you want to review the previews, as it were, I've linked to those right here:
For those of you of a notably vicarious disposition, here are some slips...
The Good
A lot of the good stuff for me - in fact, pretty much all of the good stuff - happened in the novice hurdles this year. Slade Steel (Supreme), Ballyburn (Gallagher), Majborough (Triumph) and Stellar Story (Albert Bartlett) basically were the profit side of the ledger.
Stellar Story was, well, just that, especially as Gavin also tipped him on the preview. He returned a Betfair SP of 46, so I didn't get the value here - maybe it should go in the 'bad' section...
Plus Captain Guinness, who really only expunged the El Floppiolo entry (see The Ugly below)...
A saver on Jade de Grugy to place (see The Bad below)...
And Limerick Lace, an alliterative late lump of lustre on the ledger...
The Bad
Not bad in value terms, more like bad beats - though of course those wily bookie chaps usually know what they're about. I was lucky that Jade was the final leg (excluding WPM and Prestbury Cup which were nigh on certs) which made it hedgeable. Got a profit overall by laying Jade for a place - see above.
Nowhere to go with this, and I didn't even do the smart thing and back Absurde (who finished fourth behind these three last time out, and won the County Hurdle at 12/1, 15.5 BSP) for a couple of quid.
The Ugly
And this was an ugly one. Actually, only in terms of its predictable outcome was it disfigured; the double (2/5 and 2/9) paid 8/11 come the hour, and I'd secured 11/10 so it was a value play. As can be seen, I cashed a slice out when I first got a wobble about it; and as referenced in the video I hedged a little back, too, so it probably wasn't as ugly as I was thinking.
Doing debriefs can be very cathartic! [And absolutely objectifies what can be misguided subjective perspectives on the ledger - definitely worth your time to fill out the spreadie in my view]
Summary
Overall, it was a brilliant week from a sporting perspective though I (and I'm sure most readers) really felt for Nicky Henderson. That said, it's a strong case for making hay while the sun shines: the singular focus on the Festival is unhealthy and, when the horses are, erm, unhealthy during that week in March, there's no Plan B. Hoping at least some of those good horses will show up at Aintree and/or Punchestown.
Punting wise, for yours true it was very good - and a rarity to get quids on 'Give Back Friday'. This year, it was the bookies giving back to me. Nice. Normal service is expected to resume on Friday 14th March 2025.
Until then...
Matt
p.s. how was Cheltenham for you? Best sporting moment? Best bet / worst bad beat? Leave a comment and let us know.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/275624968-scaled.jpg12802560Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2024-03-18 08:47:552024-03-18 08:47:55My 2024 Cheltenham Festival Betting P&L
Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.
The free races of the day on Monday are...
3.40 Curragh
4.18 Fontwell
5.30 Newcastle
6.30 Newcastle
Monday's racing is generally pretty poor and the Monday following the Cheltenham Festival is usually even worse and such is the case again this year, I'm afraid. We've a card or rider restricted races on the Tapeta at Newcastle and 13 NH races at Fontwell and Southwell, the highest-rated of which are half a dozen at Class 4. Of those six races, the only one with more than six runners is a 10-runner maiden where the field only have 34 previous races between them.
So, I'll be honest with you here, I probably won't be having a bet on any of Monday's racing, but for the sake of the column, I'm going to look at the 4.30 Southwell, a 6-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle on soft ground over what is essentially 2m 5.25f after a rail movement of 188 yards...
My initial thoughts are that the bottom two on the card, Quian & Over Milk Wood would be up against it here, but that you could probably make a case for any of the other four...
POZO EMERY has finished in the first three home in all of his five starts over hurdles, but has only won once (2m3½f) and comes here on the back of a 16 length defeat as a runner-up at Sandown last time out. Up in trip today and tries the tongue tie/cheekpieces combo for the first time.
FLYING FORTUNE makes a handicap debut in his fourth start over hurdles having finished 3411 in four bumpers in the first half of 2023. Her best run over hurdles was his second effort when a 3 length runner-up at Newton Abbot in October, but needs to bounce back from a poor run at Ffos Las last time out. That was over four months ago, so she's a layoff to contend with too.
HOSTILE HOTELIER is up in class here and wears a tongue tie for the first time and comes here off the back of a pair of runner-up finishes, albeit in defeats of 7.5 lengths over hurdles and by 12 lengths over fences last time out. He did win on his handicap hurdle debut last November and now races at just 4lbs higher than that win.
JUBILEE GOLD has only raced five times so far, but has a win and two places from the three races he has completed and was only beaten by half a length at Sedgefield on soft ground last time out. The winner of that race won again next time out and the third placed horse has finished second and first in his two run since. This horse is up in class here, though.
QUIAN won two starts ago at Taunton, but that run was the exception to how he normally fares, having lost his previous six races by an average of 54 lengths per race and reverted back to losing ways last time out, when only fifth of six at Huntingdon. has failed to see 2m out regularly, so 2m5f-plus poses more problems here.
OVER MILK WOOD has yet to make the frame in seven starts and has been beaten by 92, 24, 60, 7, 31, 59 and 74 lengths in those races. In his defence, he does drop in class here for his second handicap run and has at least tackled this trip before, but I'm struggling for other positives if truth be told.
We're not going to get much from the win stats on Instant Expert, so I'm showing you the place data too...
...which would suggest we're better off focusing on Pozo Emery, Flying Fortune and Jubilee Gold in a type of contest where leaders and hold-up horses haven't fared as well as those positioned somewhere between the two, which based on the field's last few runs...
...isn't the best news for Jubilee Gold from my trio of Instant Expert standouts.
Summary
A poor race on an awful day of racing, where I won't be having a bet, but if I was having one in this race, my tentative pick would be Pozo Emery at 7/1 E/W. Jubilee Gold and Flying Fortune should also be in the mix, but it's not a race to spend too much time on.
Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.
HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit columnand as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...
...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...
...14-day form...
...30-day form...
...1-year form...
...and course 5-year form...
...which gives me quite a few races to look at, plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday are due to cover...
2.25 Uttoxeter
3.55 Kempton
4.15 Thurles
4.45 Uttoxeter
5.30 Wolverhampton
We've a couple of TJC runners entered into the 2.25 Uttoxeter from our 'free' list, but 18-runner contests aren't my thing, but all isn't lost as the in-form Skeltons run Hitching Jacking in the 3.55 Kempton, an 8-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed three mile trip on good to soft ground...
My initial thoughts were that the winner would come from the trio of LTO winners, Java Point (who drops a class here), Egbert (who'll wear first-time blinkers) and Statuario (if he's race-ready after an 18-month break). The latter comes here on a hat-trick, whilst Egbert has won two of his last three.
All bar Strictlyadancer and Cap du Nord have won at least once in their last seven outings (Northern Poet is four from seven since returning from a 624-day absence), but this pair are now winless in seven and eleven races respectively, bit do both drop down two classes here, whilst the top two in the weights, Slipway & Java Point drop down one level.
Hitching Jacking and the returning Statuario are yet to win over this kind of trip, whilst bottom weight Cap du Nord is our only previous course and distance winner. Egbert has also won on this track and that was over 2m5f three starts ago, as identified by Instant Expert...
...where aside from just one losing run on the going, Egbert looks best suited. The going doesn't look like Cap du Nord's preference at 1 win from 9. That said, he has only won 1 of his last 12 and that win came just 2 days shy of two years ago, so if he doesn't win here, he'll be 0/9 on the going next time around over a 2-year period! We've four Class 3 winners, of course and Java Point has fared best at the trip.
The place stats do seem to be negative about Cap du Nord again...
, although he (like most of his rivals) does have a little bit of form at this grade. He's bottom weight here, 9lbs lower than his last and has regressed over the last couple of years. he's not getting any younger/fitter at the age of 11, so he may have to drop further in class if remaining in training, as he's certainly not for me here.
If Statuario picks up where he left off 18 months ago, then he's likely to try to control the tempo of the race from the front...
...whilst Strictlyadancer is a confirmed hold-up horse, a tactic that hasn't really panned out well in similar past contests...
Summary
I started by saying that my initial thoughts were that the winner would come from the trio of LTO winners, Java Point, Egbert and Statuario and whilst I have reservations about all three, none of their five rivals have made enough appeal for me to change my mind, although Northern Poet had gone well at the back end of last season before disappointing on his comeback run at Exeter recently.
Java Point stayed on well to win at Sandown last time out and was better than the 1.5 length margin might suggest. he is up 4lbs for that run, but does take a drop in class and in what might be a tight contest, he'd be my marginal pick ahead of his fellow 11/4 joint favourite Egbert. Egbert starred on Instant Expert, but might not be suited by the pace of the race if he's closer to back than front early on. I've little between these, but Java Point edges it.
Statuario hasn't been seen for 18 months and that's a worry, but he did each of his last two starts, the last by some twenty lengths. He should be up front controlling the tempo and if fit enough to last, he becomes very E/W backable at 10/1. Northern Poet would be the other E/W option here at 12's if he can get over that last effort at Exeter where he struggled from some way out.
Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!
My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...
...are quite restrictive but have produced a couple of A/W qualifiers...
...whilst this daily feature is, as always, supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...
1.30 Cheltenham
4.25 Fakenham
5.00 Newcastle
6.30 Wolverhampton
7.40 Newcastle
Of the seven races above, the one from the Festival is clearly the highest-rated, but I tend to leave big-race analysis to the Geegeez experts elsewhere on the site. The 'free' list does, however, contain a nice-looking contest over in Norfolk, so let's tackle the 4.25 Fakenham aka the Fakenham Silver Cup, a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed two miles on good ground, that might be a little softer in places...
Only Coup de Coeur managed to win last time out and he's 2 from 4, as is Magical Maggie (she's also 3 from 6). Ip Up is 2 from 5, whilst both Legionar and Whispering Royal are 2 from 7; Jilaijone and Fransham are winless in ten and thirteen respectively.
Jilajione's chances of breaking his cold spell are boosted by him dropping down two classes and Whispering Royal drops down one level for his handicap debut, but Legionar and Coup de Coeur are both up a class.
At 76 and 79 days off respectively, Magical Maggie and Tapley are the most rested, but that length of layoff should be an issue here and all the field have had pretty much three weeks or more to get over their last run.
Jilajione is the only one yet to score at this kind of trip, his sole win on debut was over 2m2f and only Ip Up has won on this track, as she landed a Class 4, good to soft ground handicap over course and distance by some 18 lengths back in November, five starts ago, as seen on Instant Expert below...
...where the top-rated (although aided by a 5lb claimer), 7 yr old mare Magical Maggie looks the pick of the bunch with an honourable mention to Matchless. Out of form Fransham's stats are very unappealing and Tapley's record at this level is poor and unless their place stats say they've been unlucky, I'll be disregarding them. And here are those place stats...
Fransham and Tapley's stats are better here, but they're still not close to the likes of Magical Maggie and also Matchless. This pair are expected to be up with the early pace, based on the field's most recent efforts...
...with only Jilaijone really considered to be a hold-up horse. This running style would now appear to be the final blow to his chances of breaking his 10-race drought, as this course and distance hasn't been kind to hold-up types in the past...
Summary
Coup de Coeur is our only LTO winner and is one of the 'form' horses here along with Magical Maggie and Ip Up. Magical Maggie was the eyecatcher from the Instant Expert win stats, whilst the place records of Matchless was also decent. The pace analysis only really served to help me rule out Jilaijone and in what looks a competitive race, I think I'll take Coup de Coeur, Magical Maggie and Ip Up as my three against the field.
I'd no odds to call upon at 2.45pm on Thursday, but if pushed for a 1-2-3 I'd probably go with them in the order I've listed them. Coup de Coeur was imperious at Sedgefield last time out and is 2 from 2 under today's jockey. Magical Maggie had a 14-length success at a higher grade two starts ago, but needs to get over a disappointing run last time out, whilst Ip Up was a recent course and distance winner.
Coup de Coeur here for me and E/W bets on all three if they're anything like 15/2 or bigger. Tapley might be the danger horse to my trio.
It's been a weird, and occasionally unsatisfying, week with the abandonment of the Cross Country Chase and the lamentable early showings - and subsequent withdrawals - of Nicky Henderson's star players. But here we are, three down one to go and buoyed for a crack at the Foxhunters Gold Cup. If you're behind at this point, the good news is there is still time; the bad news is this is 'Give Back Friday'...
1.30 Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m1f)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno. Although Nicky has had to pull most of his star players, he does - at time of writing, Wednesday morning - still plan to run Sir Gino, strong Triumph Hurdle favourite heretofore but now drifting like The Drifters aboard the Kon-Tiki. Let's consider his form credentials before getting bogged down in the health of the yard. Unbeaten in three, Sir Gino was considered smart enough to debut in a Listed contest at Auteuil. Sent off at bigger than 20/1 on the Paris nanny, he scored by a bit less than two lengths.
Subsequently transferred to Seven Barrows, the first thing they did was give him a wind op (well, it probably wasn't the first thing, but you know what I mean). His breathing facilitated, he scooted up by half the track in a decent Kempton Introductory Hurdle; and he then buried the Burdett Road dream by bashing that one ten lengths in a Grade 2 on the Old course here. His form is miles clear of the rest of the home team, but that bug in the Henderson yard makes it very difficult to accept a shortish price.
That's all the more true when you see what Willie's bringing to the party. Perhaps Majborough will be the pick of his, perhaps he won't; but in time he very well might be, according to 'the vibes'. In any case, his close soft ground third to stablemate Kargese in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle on first start for over a year - he'd run as a three-year-old at Auteuil on 2nd April 2023 - was expected to blow away the cobwebs and it surely did.
Willie ran five in that race, Majborough only third choice in the betting, and the two ahead of him in the market filled the first two slots home. They were led by second favourite that day, Kargese, who looks a smart filly. Always prominent, she wasn't always fluent, but ran on well in a first time hood. She'll keep that pacifier on here and will again take on Majborough and the second from the Spring, Storm Heart. This ex-French flat horse won a maiden by 22 lengths before his G1 second, and he too retains plenty of upside. It is noteworthy that he's the choice of Paul Townend.
Willie ran five in the Spring Juvenile, and he saddles - wait, let me count them - sEvEn here! Seven. Out of the 14. I mean, what? As with the bumper, there's a chance he doesn't know the pecking order; but unlike the bumper, he's won this with his first string three times in the last four years. That points to Majborough in spite of having to turn the tables with both Kargese and Storm Heart. He's clearly held in high regard.
A quick whizz through the other four Willies - Bunting was fourth in the Spring Juvenile, only a bit more than two lengths behind the winner, and is another who on form could come out in front this time; Ethical Diamond was sixth there, and has five lengths to find - still not impossible; and High Wind was eighth at Leopardstown and ostensibly has plenty on to get past any of the aforementioned Mullins mob.
Meanwhile, Salvator Mundi hasn't run for eleven months since claiming argent at Auteuil in another Listed race. But here's the thing: he was second to none other than Sir Gino! The pair of them pulled ten clear of the third placed horse and, while Sir Gino, was value for a little more than 1 3/4 length margin, that obviously still makes Salvator Mundi 'live' in here if he's fit after that long layoff.
Nurburgring is quite battle hardened but I'm not sure his form with Kala Conti is quite as strong as some of the Closutton collective, or that he has the upside of them.
Back in Blighty, Salver has been winning and winning. He served up (geddit?!) in the G2 Finale at Chepstow having already won his two prior hurdles in lower class; then he won the Victor Ludorum at Haydock. A feature of his most recent brace of scores was very wet underfoot, so conditions ought not to be a concern - whether he's as good as the Irish and/or Sir Gino remains a concern!
I'm struggling to make cases for the rest, though Peking Opera was a very good flat horse and Ithaca's Arrow ploughed through the Newbury mud last time (he also ploughed through quite a few of the hurdles). Fratas has been off for a long time. And I backed Mighty Bandit a long time ago at a shorter price than he is now. He's moved from Elliott to Greatrex and has a clunk last time on his scorecard, though he was clearly wrong that day. He's a lot harder to fancy for that water under the bridge since my guessy ante post voucher, but he did look very good on his first hurdling start.
Triumph Hurdle Pace Map
Bound to be pacey early, with something from the Willie phalanx locking horns most probably with Salver and perhaps Fratas.
Triumph Hurdle Selection
Very tricky in light of the issues surrounding the jolly. He can't possibly be a bet as things stand, which makes punting a guess up. Paul Townend has ridden the three recent Mullins winners, but Mark Walsh is retained by JP McManus for Majborough. Townend rides Storm Heart and that one could be a bit of each way value in a race where there's not a lot between many of them. I'd love to see Salver win.
Suggestion: Try Storm Heart each way at 11/1 or so.
I was a bit miffed when Dan Skelton (handicap genius or barefaced cheat – you decide) said he was going to miss the County Hurdle with 2023 winner Faivoir as I’d availed myself of some 28/1 ante-post on the basis of his eye-catching run in the Betfair Hurdle when fifth behind Iberico Lord. Stablemate L’Eau du Sud was runner-up that day and Skelton seemed adamant that the latter would carry his hopes in the County.
I was even more miffed when, hoping to cash in, I napped Faivoir in the Imperial Cup only to see him beaten a nose by Go Dante. He’s clearly well handicapped, and Skelton has decided to let him run again. I thought initially that this sounded like a bad-beat declaration, but my friend Mr Massey mentioned the stable’s record when turning runners out quickly in handicaps. Naturally, I headed over to geegeez.co.uk (pint please, Matt) to double check.
True enough, Skelton’s record with quick turnarounds is excellent with two wins and a second in the last two years from just seven runners, including Heltenham’s 17/2 score at Newbury recently. Looking back further his figures are even better for hurdlers alone with five winners from 12 runners turned out less than a week from a previous start. That’s enough to make Faivoir interesting again even if he did have a hard race at Sandown and presumably he won’t run if there are signs he’s not fully recovered.
L’Eau du Sud ran a stormer in the Betfair and while the form was let down by the winner in the Champion Hurdle, I think we all know that the Henderson lurgy was responsible for that, and ditto Betfair fourth Doddiethegreat’s late capitulation in the Coral Cup. The form of that race is clearly strong, as it always is, and the only negative about L’Eau du Sud is the price, with every man and his dog having hitched on to the Skelton bandwagon.
The other good trial for this race is the 2m Listed handicap hurdle at the DRF which this year was won by Lord Erskine from Magical Zoe and Zenta with a number of horses taken out of the race in what we affectionately refer to as a “shemozzle” at the penultimate flight. One of those brought down was Bialystock, who was travelling well and improving on the inner at the time. I think that trio are all of interest, and while a 7lb rise for the first two seems a little harsh at first glance, Bialystock is only 1lb higher and that also makes him of interest here.
Both Zenta and Magical Zoe were relatively handily placed off the turn, and out of trouble wide on the track, but it’s possible that both went slightly too early as 50/1 winner Lord Erskine was produced very late to swamp them from the final hurdle. One can knock the form because of the odds of the winner, but I think it’s very solid and Lord Erskine came in for a really well judged ride, finding the best of the ground wide on the track and delaying his challenge until late.
In short, there is nothing between Magical Zoe and Zenta on Leopardstown form and the pair can be expected to play a big part in the finish if held on to for slightly longer, while Bialystock is weighted to beat them if you take the view that he would have finished off as strongly as he travelled there. On that point, Ruby Walsh feels that Bialystock needs a fairly sharp 2m to show his best given he’s very speedy and was concerned about the stiff 2m1f here when I mentioned Bialystock as a County possibility. That’s a warning worth heeding but he still merits his place on the list.
Of the others King of Kingsfield and Absurde were third and fourth behind Ballyburn and Slade Steel and are of obvious interest dropping into a handicap from that Grade 1 contest which has thrown up two impressive winners in the big novice hurdles this week. Both are worthy of consideration, but both are also well found already in the market.
County Hurdle Pace Map
Another almost guaranteed quick pace though it's not clear from where the early dash will emerge. Aucunrisque looks a likely but Westport Cove is the only other to have led in its most recent three spins. A handful of others led four back. I still reckon it'll be quick but could be wrong as I don't know who goes on!
County Hurdle Selection
In terms of the final call, price will be crucial, and the favourite is a tad short now for all he could ease on the day. Faivoir is 16/1 in a couple of places which is very fair given the stats quoted above and his attractive mark, while even Ruby’s words don’t completely put me off Bialystock after his eye-catching run at Leopardstown.
Suggestion: Try Faivoir at 16/1 and/or Bialystock at 11/1 each way with as many extra places as you can find.
2.50 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)
Previewed by Gavin Priestley, FestivalTrends.co.uk.
All of the last 14 winners had their last run over 2m3f-3m 1/2f.
All of the last 14 winners had their last run in the previous 26-90 day period.
12 of the last 13 winners had finished top 3 last time out.
All of the last 12 winners with an official rating were rated 136+.
9 of the last 10 winners returned 11/1 or bigger.
12 of the last 13 winners had raced 7 or fewer times over hurdles.
12 of the last 14 winners were aged 6 or 7yo.
11 of the last 14 winners had won at 2m4 1/2f+.
11 of the last 14 winners had their last start in Graded company (8 in a Grade 2).
10 of the last 14 winners were Irish Bred.
9 of the last 14 winners finished Top 3 in a Graded hurdle last time out.
8 of the last 14 winners had won a Graded hurdle previously.
4 of the last 14 winners returned 33/1 or bigger.
3 of the last 14 winners had raced 15 or more times in their career.
Willie Mullins had 22 straight losers between 2010-2016 but has now won 3 of the last 7.
8 of the last 12 winners had won an Irish PTP.
4 of the last 9 winners wore a tongue tie.
All 6 female runners have finished unplaced.
Only 1 of the last 13 winners had their last race in a handicap (27 such runners).
The sire Oscar has 2 wins and 3 places from 16 runners since the races inception.
The Grade 2 Lyons Of Limerick Jaguar Land Rover Novice Hurdle is a decent Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle trial given that the 2015, 2017 and 2021 Albert Bartlett winners had all taken part in the race prior to winning at Cheltenham, while Fury Road (third by a neck in the 2020 Albert Bartlett) had won that trial back in 2019. This Season's winner, Loughlynn, had looked a progressive horse prior to this win but has been pulled up since in a Grade 1 and gives the race a miss. The runner up at Limerick is here though and Gordon Elliott's 7yo STELLAR STORY looks just the type to go well in this.
A winning Irish pointer who is also a two time NH Flat winner, from three starts, he beat Ile Atlantique and Caldwell Potter on his third bumper start which is cracking form, that pair subsequently doing very well in Grade 1 company over hurdles and the former running third in Gallagher Novices' Hurdle on Wednesday. Stellar Story won first time up over hurdles this season and was then done for pace against a couple of speedier types in a Grade 2 at Navan over 2m4f at the start of December. He was then second in that Limerick Grade 2 Hurdle before staying on late in 4th in the big 2m6f Grade 1 Novice at the Leopardstown Festival a couple of weeks ago. I think he's crying out for this step up to 3 miles and the form of that NH flat race at Naas last February has worked out really well. He ticks all the boxes for Cheltenham, has form on soft ground and given the history of outsiders running well in this race I'm certainly not put off by his price. I like his chances a lot.
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Pace Map
Quick, and attritional, as it usually is in 'the potato race'. Giggy may get jiggy on the lead, with some help from Wiggie Willie.
Previewed by Matt Bisogno. A Gold Cup shorn of one of its stars as Shishkin has succumbed to the mystery ailment afflicting Seven Barrows in recent days, but of course the show must go on. We still have the champ, Galopin Des Champs, back to defend a crown he acquired with a seven length beating of Bravemansgame twelve months ago.
Galopin was subsequently beaten not once but twice - either side of his seasonal break - by perrenial rival Fastorslow, before exacting revenge last time in the Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Racing Festival. It is widely assumed that that finishing order will be maintained, but the market has arguably over-stated that. Regardless, GdC looks on top of his game and his top form is the best in the race. He's a logical and worthy favourite.
Fastorslow has a few less notches on his bedpost, and had something of a bridesmaid look having run up to Corach Rambler in the Ultima last term and also been second in the Coral Cup the year before. He's since, erm, 'got married' (note to self, don't start analogies that will go nowhere) twice in Grade 1 company before that reverse at the hands of Galopin. [*trying desperately to crowbar in the old joke: "I've got two wives, do you think that's bigamy?" "I think that's very big of you!" - there, I did it, apols also for that]
Getting back on track, Bravemansgame was just that one spot away from winning the Blue Riband a year ago, and he's having another crack now. Why wouldn't he? Since then, he's had more seconds than a minute, running up to Gentlemansgame, Royale Pagaille, and Hewick respectively. The most recent was in the King George and that, again, is top form, albeit in defeat. Soft ground would hold no fears though he's unproven on heavy bar a Listed bumper flop at Ascot way back in 2019; that shouldn't be over-factored.
Staying with Team GB, L'Homme Presse will surely be a different dude this time from the shadow of himself that showed up in the Grade 1 Ascot Chase: never put in the race that day (pocket talk, sigh) he finished well enough over a clearly inadequate trip. Lest we forget, he was the 2022 Brown Advisory winner and though I didn't like it at the time, that was a belting prep for this.
Most of Gerri Colombe's best form has been on a sounder surface - Grade 1 Mildmay, Grade 1 Scilly Isles - but he's also got G1 verdicts on soft and soft to heavy. He was duffed up by Galopin Des Champs at Christmas, beaten 23 lengths there, and we've not seen him since. That'd be a worry for me although he's obviously a very talented chap at his best.
And then there's the fairytale ownership story that is Hewick. Bought for £12.50 (or thereabouts), he's won a bet365 Gold Cup, a Galway Plate, an American Grand National, an Oaksey Chase, and a King George. And the Durham National! Wowzers. And he actually cost €850. Just incredible - good luck to those very, very, very lucky owners and the astonishing journey this horse has taken them on. But can he win a Gold Cup?
Well, the answer to can he win a Durham Nash was probably 'no', as it was to 'can he win xyz other big race?', so let's break with that errant tradition and say, yes, he can win a Gold Cup. Whether he will or not is another question entirely. He jumps well and he stays very well so those are great credentials, as is his obvious will to battle and win, but there is a rather large fly in the ointment. ALL of his best form is on quick ground. It will not be that here, "and so I'm out" (said in my most earnest Deborah Meaden voice).
Ground would be a small niggle for Corach Rambler, too. Yes, he won a four runner novice hurdle on heavy back yon, but he will have outclassed his rivals there; and yes, he won the Ultima on soft last season. I actually really like him as a 'running on' play - maybe a place lay to back, or some such - and if I can get four places I'm bound to back him for a little bit. Because he's actually very good. Two wins here in the Ultima and a Grand National triumph tell us that; and he's surely had his mark managed as far as possible hitherto this campaign with a view to a repeat National bid. Those shackles now off he'll bring his A game here.
I can't have any of the rest. FishcakeMonkfish has been fragile and largely absent since his brilliant novice chase season, failing to win in three starts since; it's tough to envisage that streak being broken on his fourth go, in the Gold Cup. Nassalam does love the mud - he blitzed them in the Welsh National on heavy - so if it was a really, really wet day he'd enter minor calculations. Former Brown Advisory winner The Real Whacker has been missing since and isn't for me; and while I respect everything Henry de B runs at the Festival, even I'm having a hard time magicking a case for Jungle Boogie.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Pace Map
Quite a tough one to call pace wise, with a feature of most of the runners being their run style versatility. Galopin Des Champs has led in small fields the last twice but might take a lead here, while the Games - Bravemans and Gentlemans - could also get an early call. Should be a good even gallop and may the best horse win.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Selection
It might be that Galopin Des Champs just wins or that, if he doesn't, Fastorslow does. I'll probably do that 'no brainer' exacta which will pay 5/1 or so. But I kind of like L'Homme Presse as a sleeper in the field and he'll be my each way play. Lower down, Corach Rambler will be running on and can hit the extended frame; and if it's very wet - it might be! - Nassalam could surprise a few.
Suggestion: Try a little on L'Homme Presseeach way, and perhaps Corach Rambler(not too wet) or Nassalam(biblical rainfall) with as many places as you can get. But, obviously, no surprise whatsoever if the top of the market outclasses them.
4.10 Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase (Class 2, 3m 2 1/2f)
Previewed by John Burke, VictorValue.co.uk.
As ever I will begin with a look at a few general race trends:
Ten year-old’s have won six of the last ten renewals of the race – six winners from 47 runners +130.63, 12 placed with the A/E=1.86.
Nine of the last ten winners have been aged 10 or 11.
Favourites are three winners from ten runners -0.24, six placed. But five winners were returned between 16/1 & 66/1.
Eight of the last ten winners had won between 2m7f and 3m2½f.
There have been a number of repeat winners of this race, with Salsify, On The Fringe and Pacha Du Polder enjoying back-to-back successes since 2012.
To the form and the first thing you notice is the number of declared runners. This year’s renewal has attracted just a dozen hunters. 23 ran last year and the race average since 2008 is 22.75. Hopefully it’s a case of quality rather than quantity but I suppose it may also say a lot about the direction of travel of the hunter chase game.
I'll admit that if Matt hadn't asked me to preview the race, I probably wouldn't have given it much attention. However, I'm glad I did because despite the small field, I believe it could be an interesting contest.
Ferns Lock, Its On The Line, Premier Magic, and Samcro all share the top spot on official ratings.
Ferns Lock, although making his first appearance at Cheltenham, is a proficient jumper and a strong traveller. If he manages to stay the extended 3m2f distance, he's the most likely winner, although that's not certain given his racing style.
Its On The Line, recently acquired by JP McManus and trained by Emmet Mullins, boasts a solid record with three consecutive wins in hunter chases. He battled to victory over one of today's rivals, Billaway, in his last outing at Naas and is a strong stayer who could challenge Ferns Lock on the run-in.
Premier Magic secured victory in last year's race and followed up with another win at Cheltenham in May. Although he held off Its On The Line by 1¾ lengths last year, the latter has gained experience since then, and Premier Magic might find it tougher to repeat his success.
Samcro has shown revitalised form in point-to-point races, winning four times between October and November. While he might struggle against the likes of Ferns Lock and Its On The Line, he can't be completely discounted.
Billaway, winner of this race in 2022, fell twelve months ago but showed promise in his recent runner-up finish at Naas. Although his jumping isn't as polished as some of his rivals, his staying power keeps him in the mix.
Quintin’s Man found 2m6f an inadequate stamina test when 3rd of eight at Haydock last month. He won a course and distance hunter chase here last May so the return to today’s trip appears more suitable. He’s going the right way but would need to improve plenty to trouble the principles.
Sine Nomine delivered an improved performance to win a heavy ground hunter chase at Wetherby last month. The mare is now three from five under Rules and, whilst she needs to improve again to even get into the places, she might be capable of doing so.
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Pace Map
The map only shows Rules form, so ignores point to points. As such, it's not to be trusted for all that it implies a fair gallop set by one or both of Billaway and Ferns Lock with possibly 14yo Shantou Flyer wanting a piece, too, if he can keep up!
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Selection
The battle seems to be between Ferns Lock and Its On The Line. If Ferns Lock conserves his energy early on, he’s the most likely winner, but Its On The Line is a strong finisher. Premier Magic, last year's winner, can't be dismissed, and for those seeking a value bet, Sine Nomine will hopefully be available at decent each-way odds.
That's a wrap for me. I've thoroughly enjoyed sharing my race previews with you, and I hope you've found them enjoyable and informative. Until next time, happy racing!
Suggestion: Try Ferns Lock to win at 11/4 and/or Sine Nomine each way at 16/1 or bigger.
Previewed by Matt Bisogno. Ah, the Mares' Chase. An 'after the Lord Mayor's Show' of a race if ever there was. Or maybe 'After the Lord Mares' Show'. Perhaps not. Let's get on with it, shall we?
It's 20/1 bar four and that's mainly because Dinoblue, even money, is in the field. Her form in front of Gentleman De Mee and closest to El Fabiolo the last twice is the best by a margin; but she's only run once at this twenty furlong range, a ten length fourth in a Fairyhouse G1 novice hurdle. She kept on that day, and doubts about stablemate Lossiemouth's stamina for a similar step up were unambiguously dispelled on Tuesday. She'll probably win - she's a really smart mare.
But what if she doesn't stay? In such a scenario, Gavin Cromwell may hold the key. He runs two, Limerick Lace and Brides Hill. Limerick Lace handles soft and heavy ground, stays very well (keeping on second in the three mile Thyestes Chase) and bolted up in a Listed mares' race at this trip in Doncaster last time. I'm not convinced she's quick enough but I'm certain she'll handle conditions.
Brides Hill is on a four-timer, and she looks a trip specialist. She, too, has soft ground form, though not heavy ground form, and she's had a lot of races. She'd not be near the top of my list.
Another with conditions in her corner is Allegorie De Vassy, twice a winner on heavy in her last three starts, both in Listed company. She finished second in this last year and may again have to settle for minor honours, though she probably will go close.
Making a case for anything else is probably folly, but at a massive price Marsh Wren is better suited to conditions than most. Still a novice, she's a winner of eight of 13 starts, three of four in chases, and went to Ireland to beat some of their Listed class mares last time. She has a chunk to find on the book but goes from the front and will, as they say, "give a bold sight".
Mares' Chase Pace Map
This should be a proper test at the trip which may or may not find out the best mare in the field. Kestrel Valley and Marsh Wren, along with Dinoblue's stablemate, Instit (pronounced Ansty, apparently), will be the trailblazers.
Mares' Chase Selection
Dinoblue has to show she stays, and she might. If we knew she did, she wouldn't be evens, I guess, but I still don't like that price given the unanswered question. Limerick Lace is probably quite solid for all that she's probably quite slow (might be what's needed if it's wet) and Allegorie De Vassy is another the market (and I) expect(s) to be on the premises. If you want to go mad - we might need to by this point - Marsh Wren without the favourite, could sneak a minor placing.
Suggestion: I'm going to try to get Dinoblue beaten, which will be a waste of time if she stays. In that context, back Limerick Lace to win at 9/2.
Previewed by David Massey. This year’s Martin Pipe is a slightly strange affair, with a less compressed look to the handicap than is normally the case. It tends to be a 0-145 handicap where the bottom in is usually around the low 130’s but this time around you’ve a few below that mark and bottom weight Russian Ruler, for the not-in-form Nicky Henderson (it has to turn, doesn’t it?), is rated just 122.
The lowest rating for anything winning this in the last decade is 135, and most of the unexposed ones that tend to do well in the race are 130+, and I think we’ll find the winner there.
Ocastle Des Mottes is one of the Willie Mullins plots for this and he has a touch of the Galopins about him. The future Gold Cup winner had been sixth in a Grade 1 on his previous start before winning this in 2021 and Ocastle Des Mottes, whilst not competing at that level last time, still went off favourite for the Betfair Hurdle last month. Perhaps all the pre-race shenanigans when he had to be re-shod didn’t help his cause, but he was a little disappointing all the same in finishing eighth. I feel that, given the level of support he had that day, he must be capable of better, and I’d not be writing him off on the back of one run.
Willie’s Quai De Bourbon is the one that’s come in for all the support ever since the market opened, but he looks underpriced on what he’s achieved so far. His defeat of stablemate Westport Cove looks solid enough, with the runner-up going on to be beaten 12 lengths by Tullyhill at the Dublin Racing Festival, and a mark of 140 looks fair enough. He has one of the most experienced jockeys on board in Michael O’Sullivan and he has plenty of upside to him. The market has him well found, all the same.
Gordon Elliott has twice won this in recent years and of his battalion Better Days Ahead is the one that makes the most appeal. He didn’t shine in the Champion Bumper last year but has shown steady progression in four hurdles starts, coming up against Slade Steel at Navan two starts ago (not knocked about as the stable’s second string that day, but still not beaten far) and then second to Asian Master over a trip too short at Navan last time. Those two pieces of form look all the stronger after the Supreme and, with the useful Danny Gilligan in the plate, he just about heads up my shortlist.
It isn’t a totally one-sided affair, as the British have won the Martin Pipe twice in the last four years, with Iroko last year and the game Indefatigable four years ago (seems like yesterday, that) but the home team is not a strong one. You’d like to think at some point David Pipe might win the race named after his father but he’s 0-23 despite chucking some decent ammunition at it over the years. Thanksforthehelp was probably trying to get himself qualified for the Pertemps at Chepstow last time; that failed, and this looks more in hope than any great plan.
The one I could throw a few quid at each-way from our side is Gary Moore’s Teddy Blue. I’m not entirely convinced he’s in the right race today - the County would have been my preference - but regardless, he’s developed his own ideas about the game and isn’t one to fully trust. That’s fine if he’s a 40-1 shot, as you don’t have to pay a lot to find out what side of bed he’s got out of, but his recent form is decent enough. He travelled up well to throw down a challenge in the Lanzarote before fading late and, at Ascot last time, was only beaten five lengths in a competitive affair. He will hang left under pressure, and the hope is a fast-run affair will keep him on the bridle long enough before he realises he’s in a race and by then, he’s hopefully got the place part of the bet wrapped up.
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Pace Map
Again, not obviously stacked with pace but hard to see that it won't be truly run. Gordon runs seven so one will likely go on, most likely either or both of Better Days Ahead or Mel Monroe.
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Selection
Suggestion: Two bets for me - each-way 10/1 Better Days Ahead and a little win and place at 50/1 Teddy Blue.
And that, as they say, will be that. I hope that you're having a great week, be it only in sport or with some wagering success too, and wishing you all the best with your Friday plays. Thanks a million for following geegeez this week, and special thanks to the great writing assistance I've received from David, Rory, Gavin and John - top men, all. Do check out their links in the above if you've appreciated their work as much as I have.
Be lucky.
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/galopindeschamps_langerdan_cheltenhamMartinPipe2021.jpg319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2024-03-14 11:08:212024-03-14 20:29:38Cheltenham Festival 2024: Day Four Preview, Tips
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