Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.
It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...
1.10 Hexham
3.30 Cheltenham
5.45 Southwell
6.15 Southwell
...and I suppose it would be rude of me to ignore the Festival completely this week, so why don't I cast my amateur eye (plenty of pro analysis elsewhere on Geegeez!) over the 3.30 Cheltenham? 12 runners are set to go to post for the Grade 1 PP Stayers Hurdle over a left-handed three miles on soft/heavy ground with more rain expected...
Crambo, Noble Yeats, Sir Gerhard and Teahupoo all won last time out, whilst Asterion Forlonge and Paisley Park were both runners-up. Paisley Park has actually been a runner-up in each of his last three and most recently here over course and distance in the Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle, half a length being Noble Yeats, but is now 6lbs better off. Flooring Porter (winner of this race is 2021 & 2022) and Janidil also made the frame last time around, whilst Buddy One is the only runner here who didn't complete his last race, being pulled up before the last in Leopardstown's Grade 1 Jack de Bromhead Christmas Hurdle.
All horses will carry 11st 10lbs here, but the assessors have the field rated 10lbs from top to bottom with Teahupoo's OR of 162 the highest, 3lbs better than Sire du Berlais with Noble Yeats rated at 'just' 152.
We know that Flooring Porter won this race in 2021 and 2022, but we've four other course and distance winners in the race in the shape of last year's winner Sire du Berlais, Noble Yeats (from LTO), Buddy One and Paisley Park. Dashel Drasher (2m4½f hurdle) and Sir Gerhard (2m½f NHF & 2m5f hurdle) have also won on this track, whilst only Asterion Forlonge, Janidil and Sir Gerhard are yet to win over a similar trip in UK/Ireland.
Instant Expert suggests that both Dashel Drasher and paisley park have struggled to win races at this class and/or trip over the last couple of years, but that most of the field have had some joy on soft or heavy ground...
...whilst it's 3 years since Janidil last tackled a hurdle when beaten by 11 lengths as 5th of 19 in the Albert Bartlett here in the 2020 Festival.
As you'd expect from such a high class field, the place stats from those races above don't help me towards a winner or an E/W bet...
...but they do lead me to write Home By The Lee off at this stage.
The place data for similar contests here at HQ say that the further forward a horse runs, the greater its chances of making the frame, but that most runners come from off the pace, having raced in mid-division...
...which based on the field's last couple of outings suggests that whilst Dashel Drasher, Flooring Porter, Home By the Lee, Buddy One & Noble Yeats might well be ideally positioned to make the frame (4 places generally, 5 at SkyBet, of course!)
...they're probably susceptible to a late run for the win from one or more of Asterion Forlonge, Paisley Park, Sir Gerhard and Teahupoo.
Summary
My personal shortlist for the race wasn't too far away from the names taken from the pace chart above and consisted of Asterion Forlonge, Crambo, Flooring Porter, Noble Yeats, Paisley Park, Sire du Berlais and Teahupoo. This meant that Asterion Forlonge, Flooring Porter, Noble Yeats, Paisley Park and Teahupoo featured on both lists.
So, whilst I'd love to able to prove why Sire du Berlais might still have something to offer, I can't justify it if we're only going off the data above (no room for sentiment, eh?)
Of the five left under consideration, Teahupoo is probably the best horse in the race, but 7/4 is no kind of money for me to be involved with. I do like Noble Yeats, based on his course and distance win here last time out, but he only narrowly defeated Paisley Park that day and the latter isn't carrying a penalty this time. Asterion Forlonge's only Grade 1 win came four years ago, but he does make the frame regularly at this level, whilst Flooring Porter knows exactly what's needed here.
In the end, Teahupoo probably wins this, but based on the 5.45pm market...
...I'd still be interested in Flooring Porter, Paisley Park and Asterion Forlonge as E/W possibles with Noble Yeats just a tad too short, unless he drifts. Don't forget, it's 5 places if you can get on with SkyBet!
Day Three, Thursday, and it's out with the Old (Course) and in with the New (Course). Fresh ground then, but plenty of precipitation has tumbled over it so mud lovers aforethought perhaps...
1.30 Turners Novices' Chase (Grade 1, 2m 4f)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno. The Turners is an intermediate distance novice chase and one which, unlike other intermediate distance races, tends to detract from the Arkle and Brown Advisory without ever really establishing its own identity. For some that will be a harsh interpretation but, besides a couple of arguable exceptions (Vautour, Chantry House, Stage Star - I told you they were arguable), there's little on the roll of honour to get the pulse charging. No matter, for every race needs a winner, and I'd be better investing your reading time in that challenge than navel-gazing about the right for this contest to exist.
This season's renewal fits that 'not quite as good as it ought to be' bill to a nicety. The betting is headed by Grey Dawning, trained by Dan Skelton. A 14 length winner of the G2 Hampton Novices' Chase at Warwick last time, he was flattered greatly by that margin: Broadway Boy and Apple Away went at it from the get go, trading blows as though this was a mile and a half sprint. It wasn't, and they cooked each other allowing GD to plod past exhausted rivals.
Still, he must be a good horse, and his previous second to Ginny's Destiny perhaps holds the key to unlocking this race. That was here but on the other track, but Ginny's has run his last four races - all over fences - here, winning the most recent three including one on this exact track/trip. Paul Nicholls will saddle him and Harry Cobden will steer, and he's very likely to try to make all. But perhaps Grey Dawning handles really deep ground better? Certainly his more patient run style could be favourable.
Pick of the Irish is expected (by the market, at least) to be Facile Vega. Trained by Willie and ridden by Paul Townend, he won the Champion Bumper in 2022 and was second to Marine Nationale in the Supreme last year. That form entitles him to win this, except that over fences he's been a couple of beats slower: having won his beginners' chase on soft to heavy, he's been turned over in a brace of Grade 1's on quicker ground. This will be a first run beyond 2m1f for him and, if he stays - the million dollar question - he's got a right chance.
Iroko was presumed out for the season but returns here for a first run since early November. He was a good winner of last year's Martin Pipe and made a highly promising chase debut on his sole spin this term; but that layoff is a big niggle for me.
Gordon Elliott sends Zanahiyr to this, having pulled stumps mid-season on a hurdling campaign and got two chases into him. The first was a novice-y round behind Fact To File, form which might not look too bad after the Brown Advisory - and, actually, doesn't look too bad anyway; and the second was a hard fought verdict over Aspire Tower over a trip too short. Both those races were beginners' chases and this is a big step up in class, for all that he's mixed it with the best hurdlers for three and a half seasons. His fencing inexperience is a concern and he might be slightly better on a sounder surface.
Venetia sends Djelo here. He started off beating Master Chewy in a handicap chase and then won two more chases, the last of which was a G2, before having no chance when completely buggered up by Matata's errant transit at Lingfield in January. Since then, Djelo ran second to the very talented (and probably under-rated) Nickle Back in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Chase: that was on good ground and he was ridden patiently, never able to reel in the runaway winner. But that form fits here, and he's probably a touch over-priced.
I'm struggling to make much of a case for the remainder.
Turners Novices' Chase Pace Map
Ginny's Destiny probably leads, with a few close up, but I'm expecting an even gallop.
Turners Novices' Chase Selection
Grey Dawning is clearly a talented horse and he migh just win, but I don't like his price. Similarly, Ginny's Destiny has a small question to answer on the ground for me and his price doesn't allow for that. I think Facile Vega could take a big step forward for the extra three furlongs, and he's a win only play in case he simply doesn't stay. But Djelo looks the one who will appreciate conditions and is a fat price.
Suggestion: Try Facile Vega win only at 10/3 or Djelo e/w at 16/1.
Previewed by Rory Delargy. The first thing to look for in the Pertemps Final is what runs for Gordon Elliott. He’s had 19 runners since 2017 (including one putatively trained by Denise 'Sneezy' Foster) and has saddled three winners and three seconds in that time. All of those horses were priced at 10/1 or shorter, so we must have maximum respect for the Elliott first string, Cleatus Poolaw.
Cleatus Poolaw has the right profile for a handicap hurdle winner here, being an unexposed novice arriving on the back of a career-best effort when 3½ lengths second of 14 to Noble Birth in the recent Naas qualifier. He’s 9lb higher for that which seems fair given that was his first handicap outing and he ought to progress for it. He has a remarkably similar profile to Delta Work, who won this as a novice in 2018 before quickly proving himself a Grade 1 performer. I don’t think Cleatus Poolaw is in that category, but he’s certainly a must for the shortlists in a race with extra places on offer.
Gaoth Chuil is a second-season hurdler who has run really well upped to 3m on her last two starts at Leopardstown and remains unexposed as a stayer. The British handicapper hasn’t been harsh on her considering she may well have won last time but for a late error, and she is in shrewd hands with Ted Walsh as wily as they come. The one off-putting thing is that the only time she has travelled to the UK, she ran her only poor race at Aintree last spring. Plenty of horses dislike travelling and it’s possible that she’s one, for all a sample size of one is hardly enough to make a conclusion.
Le Milos may prove best of the Brits, with Dan Skelton clearly feeling the return to hurdles could pay dividends with last season’s Coral Gold Cup winner. Of similar merit over hurdles and fences when with Tim Vaughan, he has improved markedly for Skelton and is lower in this sphere than over the larger obstacles, opening up the possibility that he could be well treated. He qualified with a low-key run at Market Rasen and was given a strangely (!) negative ride at Ascot last time. There is no better trainer at playing the handicap system at this meeting than Dan Skelton, and Le Milos is following a typical Skelton route of keeping under the radar before the big meeting.
Cuthbert Dibble is a really likeable sort for Nigel Twiston-Davies, and the trainer has won this race twice before, but the last time was in 2008 and his record of a win and six places from 52 handicap hurdle runners in the last two decades is slightly off-putting. Cuthbert Dibble has won both starts over hurdles this term, but that is not a positive historically, with only Presenting Percy since 2010 having won more than once in the current season (and that wasn’t by design!). It’s also unusual for the winner of this to have won a qualifier with only one of the last 22 winners having done so. In short, Cuthbert Dibble’s connections have been too honest in his campaigning, which is why I’d love to see him win.
Kyntara is one to consider at bigger odds, for all he’s shown his hand to a greater extent. Well suited by soft or heavy ground, he has only had nine starts over hurdles and has looked most reliable, only finishing out of the frame once. Second in the Warwick qualifier, he improved again when runner-up to Emitom last time, and while he’s not had his handicap mark minded, he could still run well for Mel Rowley, whose horses are in good nick at present.
Nicky Henderson has a good record at getting his horses into the frame in handicap hurdles at this meeting, but the abject form of the yard suggests that his runners in this may be pulled out; that said, he’s kept some in on Wednesday, and it’s possible that those (housed away from those who have been running poorly, perhaps?) will perform better, which would shed a new light on things. In the meantime, they need to be left alone.
Pertemps Final Pace Map
Plenty of pace on, as you'd expect.
Pertemps Final Selection
Shortlist: Those highlighted in bold, with Le Milos just getting the nod at current prices.
Suggestion: Try Le Milos at 12/1 each way with extra places.
Previewed by Matt Bisogno. One shy of a dozen very good, but maybe not great, horses line up for this year's Ryanair. The best of them is probably Banbridge, but he's got a problem: the celestial taps appear stuck in the 'on' position and that's simply no good for him. In fact, he probably won't run. If he does line up and it's wet, he's a lay.
The reigning Ryanair champion is Envoi Allen, and he's back to defend his crown. Last season he won a G1 at Down Royal before a no show in the King George en route to this gig; this time he flunked in a Gowran pipe opener and was pipped in the Down Royal G1. His trainer, Henry de Bromhead, will have him at concert pitch now and the long absence wasn't an issue twelve months ago. Now ten, he's not getting any younger, mind.
Stage Star looked to have assumed the mantle vacated by the same yard's Frodon this season. He runs most of his races at Cheltenham, mixing handicaps with Graded chases and winning them all... until New Year's Day, when he pulled up on heavy ground. He'd won the Turners last season and the Paddy Power Gold Cup (handicap) this season, so if you can forgive that P last time he's a player.
Gordon Elliott brings Conflated to this party, dropping back from three miles after two last fence unseats in a row. He also fell in this race two years ago, his most recent attempt at the trip, but he wasn't out of the reckoning at that point. A clear round makes him a win only player, but he's obviously a risky conveyance in that regard.
Winning the 3m1f Cotswold Chase is an unorthodox prep for a tilt at the Ryanair, but that's the path plotted by Capodanno's connections. He'd previously been third to Galopin Des Champs in the G1 Lexus (three miles) and ran in last year's Grand National. Eh? Turning back the clock a little further, Capodanno was 2nd to Bob Olinger over this trip in a soft ground Punchestown novice chase, and if it's really testing ground and they go quick, it could bring him into calculations. There are quite a few if's there, however.
Fil Dor, another for Gordie, has the opposite range problem: he's been racing at two miles since his very high class juvenile days, two sorties beyond 17f yielding a couple of clunks, in the Coral Cup and a Grade 2 hurdle at Fairyhouse. Although he finished well on the first of his two chase starts this term, he just doesn't look to have the requisite stamina.
If you're starting to see a pattern whereby horses that are too slow for the Champion Chase or not stout enough for the Gold Cup drop in here, the presence of Protektorat will do little to disabuse you of that notion. He's run over at least 2m6f on his last ten racecourse visits, and beyond three miles in eight of those. Two and a half miles it is then... To be fair to him, he's been third and fifth in the last two Gold Cups, but he's not an obvious Ryanair winner to my eye.
Jamie Snowden has Ga Law, winner of the Paddy Power a year before Stage Star and, therefore, similarly proven in today's conditions. Stage Star was rated 155 to Ga Law's 142, though. This fella had a quintet of clunks on his CV post-Paddy Power but arrested the decline in style with a win on Trials Day here in January. He's never quite convinced as a Grade 1 horse and one of the Festival handicaps might have been a better play, for all that such a plan was probably blown with the last day verdict.
Hitman's best form is at least at two and a half miles, as when he was second in the G1 Melling Chase at Aintree two years ago. He was also third in this race last year when sent off 22/1 and he handles muddy turf. I can see him skulking around out of the way before running on quite strongly, and maybe nicking a place at a big price.
And what about Ahoy Senor? Well, I'm afraid, what about him? He's not looked the force of old this season and he's little to no form at the trip. He could have a part to play, however, if he gets embroiled in the early pace; such an act might be a hindrance to the chance of Stage Star who habitually goes forward himself.
In the long grass lies Fugitif, trained by the slightly unfashionable Richard Hobson and second in the Plate last year. He's a two-and-a-half-miler through and through, and he has been campaigned almost exclusively at Cheltenham for two seasons now. During that time, his track record is 222413, all but the most recent figure achieved in handicap company. Then, on Trials Day, he ran in the two mile Clarence House Chase, diverted from Ascot, and finished off well without ever having the pace to challenge Elixir De Nutz or Jonbon. He's another who won't be involved early but who could fall into the frame late - and he's long odds at that.
Ryanair Chase Pace Map
Stage Star is most likely to lead but he may not get it all to himself. Should be a truly run race.
Ryanair Chase Selection
It's a really interesting betting puzzle but not an easy one. I'm inclined to take a small win only chance on Conflated, and two even smaller (like, miniscule) e/w plays - extra places, please! - on Hitman and Fugitif. I won't get rich or poor punting that trio but it might make for an interesting watch,
Suggestion: Try Conflated win only at 8/1 and/or very small each way on 25/1 Hitman and/or 33/1 Fugitif
Previewed by Gavin Priestley, FestivalTrends.co.uk.
All of the last 14 winners had their last run in a Graded race (13/14 in Grade 1 or Grade 2).
All of the last 14 winners had been rested at least 30 days (13/14 46 days).
All bar one winner this century had finished top 4 last time out (exception fell).
13 of the last 14 winners were rated 152+.
13 of the last 14 winners were aged 6-9yo.
13 of the last 14 winners had run at the track previously.
13 of the last 14 winners had run 1-4 times over hurdles that Season (October).
12 of the last 14 winners returned 14/1 or shorter.
9 of the last 14 winners had finished top 2 in all completed runs since October.
8 of the last 14 winners won their last race.
6 of the last 14 winners had their last run at Cheltenham.
No 5yo has ever won the World Hurdle / Stayers Hurdle.
Only 2 horses aged over 9 have won (1986 Crimson Ember & 2023 Sire De Berlais).
All 12 runners stepping up from handicap company have been beaten.
There have been only 6 Irish winners since 1996 and they have come in the last 10 years (Solwhit, Nicholls Canyon, Penhill, Flooring Porter (x2) and Sire De Berlais).
5 of the last 7 winners were 7yo. 7 of the last 10 winners were second season hurdlers.
With four 9yo's, two 10yo's, an 11yo and three 12yo's in the 13 strong line up you'd be forgiven for thinking this is a veteran's race!
Nine-year-old winners are rare with most of those that win being previous winners of the race (Galmoy 87/88, Inglis Drever 07/08 and Big Bucks 09/10/11/12), although Solwhit did win in 2013 on his first start in the race and on his first attempt at 3 miles: there's always a trends busting result somewhere in the history of a race.
Eleven-year-old winners are even rarer with last year's champion, Sire Du Berlais, being the first of that age to prevail since 1986 (Crimson Embers). No ten-year-old has won in the modern era (1972 onwards) or any horse twelveplus (there was a 13yo winner in 1927!). I think it's safest to stick to the 6-8yo age group unless an older horse has previously won the Stayers Hurdle.
That gives us four possibles who all seem to pass the main trends for this race: Teahupoo, Crambo, Flooring Porter and Paisley Park.
As much as I'd like to see Paisley Park turn back the clock and win it for the second time I just think he'll find at least one or two too good as he has done all season. There won't be a more popular winner all week should he manage it but I'm going to reluctantly look to one of the relative youngsters in the field, the 7yo CRAMBO.
He beat Paisley Park in an exciting renewal of the Long Walk at Ascot just before Christmas. Five of the last seven winners have come from that age group, including Paisley Park in his 2019 win, and the selection has done nothing but improve over the last twelve months. He made the transition from decent handicapper to Grade 1 winner at Ascot and, although he'll need to improve again, he looks on an upward curve and more than capable of finding that little bit extra.
SELECTION: CRAMBO 1pt
Stayers' Hurdle Pace Map
With Flooring Porter, Dashel Drasher and Home By The Lee all set to go forward, this may be run at quite a fast clip.
Stayers' Hurdle Selection
Shortlist: Teahupoo, Crambo, Flooring Porter and Paisley Park
Top of the list for this year’s renewal of the Plate is Theatre Man, for all he’s been well backed in the last 48 hours. That can hardly be a surprise, given his profile, and his latest form - when second to Ginny’s Destiny in the Timeform Novices Handicap Chase at Cheltenham - might already have received a boost earlier in the afternoon. If Ginny’s has won, God alone knows what price Theatre Man might go off.
He’s only had the three chase starts but has taken steps forward each time, and the way he finished off last time suggests he’s going to enjoy coming off a solid pace. He gets a bit further than this (although on soft ground, he’d not get three miles) and as ever, that’s never a bad thing this week.
I’d have liked to have seen what Trelawne could have done in the Ultima on Tuesday as regards Crebilly’s chance, as he was last of three behind Jonjo O’Neill’s unexposed 7yo at Exeter and might have given the form a boost. The assumption is that Crebilly has been laid out for this, but Jonjo’s suffered a few reverses in the past couple of weeks and for all the chat is about how moderately many of Nicky’s are running this week, Jackdaws Castle doesn’t appear to be firing on all cylinders either, and he’s easy enough to pass over at around a miserly 4-1.
Henry De Bromhead took no time in getting off the mark this week, winning the very first race, and his Arctic Bresil is the most interesting of the Irish contingent. The Irish used to struggle to win this, but they’ve won five of the last eight renewals and seemingly, like most races Festival week, they are getting the hang of this one, too. Arctic Bresil was, let’s say, quite eyecatching when second to Mister Policeman at Punchestown over two miles last time; he could never get on terms with the easy winner, but stayed on quite takingly for second, not asked for much effort, and looked like he wanted a longer trip. Normally I wouldn’t even look at one that‘s not won over the trip but he’s bred to want this, a half-brother to a couple that won over 2m4f-3m, and since when have the Irish ever taken any notice of trends and stats?
I’ve desperately tried to crowbar Frero Banbou into this as well, as he’s got his ground and has plenty of Cheltenham form to call upon. Sadly, one of his lesser efforts was in this last year when he finished twelfth, and given he’s not won for over two years, the case for him is thinner than an After Eight mint that's been stepped on by an elephant. Still, Venetia has a decent Plate record, with three winners and two seconds, and I won’t be able to resist a throwaway tenner on the Tote (surely the way to play him) if he’s a monster price.
And finally, the curious case of Saint Felicien. Well backed for the 2022 Coral Cup, he ran a stinker on bad ground, with connections stating he wanted quicker ground. After an absence of twenty months, he ran a cracker in the circumstances to finish a nine-length third to Facile Vega in a beginners chase at Navan, and although he took another three goes to get off the mark he was quite impressive at Gowran Park last time, jumping a bit cleaner than had been the case. It might be he’s finally twigged what’s required and as an unexposed chaser (this will be his fifth start over fences) he’s open to more improvement. And the ground for all four of those chase starts? According to Timeform - heavy, heavy, heavy and heavy. I’m not so convinced it wants quicker ground...
Festival Plate Pace Map
A Festival handicap. They'll go quick. Saint Felicien and Frero Banbou expected to be up top, and we'll see how long they can stay there for.
Festival Plate Selection
I really like Theatre Man and think he has to go close.
4.50 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2, 2m 1f)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno. Another of my lesser favoured races of the week is the Dawn Run, but I love the Ryanair, which many people don't, and respect the Stayers' Hurdle - it can't all be golden, can it? This race has thrown some shocks in its time but it looks to have some genuine star quality this time around in the form of Jade De Grugy, Dysart Enos and, notably, Brighterdaysahead.
Let's start with the last named who trained Gordon Elliott has suggested could be the best he's had. I mean, he's conditioned thousands of horses and, I think 88 Grade 1 winners in UK/Ire, so that's a bold shout. If he's even nearly right, she'll win. But let's look at her known credentials rather than the soundbite. She's five from five, two bumpers and three hurdles, and cost €310,000 as an unraced store!
That's because her pedigree is Kapgarde out of Matnie, the mare who'd already produced Mighty Potter, French Dynamite, Indiana Jones and Caldwell Potter, all 150+ RPR horses, although not all of them had run to that level when she was bought. She won a G3 mares' novice by five lengths in spite of a mistake at the last, then she won a Listed mares' novice over 2m5f by 12 lengths without turning a hair. That was on heavy ground and the G3 on soft so it probably can't be wet enough for her.
Jade De Grugy is similarly unbeaten, in three in her case, and she too sauntered home in a G3 mares' novice last time. She'd previously bolted up in a big field maiden hurdle at Leopardstown over this trip and is also proven on very soft turf. On figures, there's little between the two mentioned so far and it's a question of projecting which can leap forward the most in a race where they are both, and many others too, expected to leave current levels of form behind.
Dysart Enos is the one to have achieved the most on the track hitherto. Trained by Fergal O'Brien, she's a Grade 2 bumper winner, at the Aintree Festival last season, a race that habitually throws a slew of future winners. As well as her own three from three form since, second placed - and re-opposing - Golden Ace has won both starts since, and third home Williamstowndancer is three from five subsequently. Dysart Enos's novice hurdle form is all ungraded but she does have a win over the track to her name and on soft ground, too. Most of her form is on quicker sod, mind, and there's a small niggle there.
Jeremy Scott, whose Dashel Drasher has been such an incredible flag bearer, saddles Golden Ace, closest to Dysart Enos at Aintree and a dual scorer at a good ungraded level since. She's by Golden Horn out of a Dubawi mare, so an interesting (blue blood) pedigree. I feel that Golden Horn could be one of the pre-eminent NH stallions in a year or two so it will be interesting to see how this mare goes.
It's quite big prices the rest, led by Birdie Or Bust. Although one must respect everything Henry de Bromhead brings to the Festival, her defeat by Williamstowndancer and whacking at the hooves of Brighterdaysahead suggest she's a lot on her plate. In her defence, she has a 'now' factor about her having won a Listed race last time; that was on yielding, and it will be likely be deeper underfoot, as well as in opposition terms, here.
One rank outsider that should be mentioned is Majestic Force. Trained by Henry, she has had just one run, a rallying win on heavy ground over two and a half miles in a Punchestown maiden hurdle. That's not obviously the answer to this conundrum, but the fact she's entered is interesting even if probably not sufficiently so to merit small investment.
Mares' Novices' Hurdle Pace Map
Three who have made a habit of being close to the front, including Jade de Grugy; but we have scant evidence to go on. Will probably be truly, perhaps strongly, run.
Mares' Novices' Hurdle Selection
Some very promising mares in here, most notably the top three in the market. It's close on what they've achieved so far between Brighterdaysahead and Jade De Grugy, and so the fact that the latter is a point bigger tempts me more than the 'best yet' chat about the former (for all that I doubt that's unfounded). Dysart Enos has a bit to find on hurdles form and there is usually something less considered lurking that can improve into podium contention - that could be Golden Ace or Majestic Force. But this looks very likely to go to the top of the market.
Suggestion: Back 9/4 Jade De Grugy as a credible value alternative to a very promising hype horse in Brighterdaysahead.
5.30 Kim Muir Challenge Cup Chase (Class 2 Handicap, 3m2f)
Previewed by John Burke, VictorValue.co.uk. The Kim Muir has not been a good race for favourite backers in recent seasons with favourites (clear & joint) recording only one winner from 12 bets -£8 to £1 stake, 4 placed in the last ten years.
Eight of the last ten winners of the races were returned between 3/1 & 12/1. However, there have been two winners at 40/1, including Chambard in 2022.
Eight winners were ages 7 & 8.
Nine winners carried 11-0 or more. Those carrying less than 11-0 are one winner from 47 runners, two placed. The sole winner carrying below 11 stone was Chambard.
Eight of the last ten winners had an Official Rating 137+.
Six of the last ten winners were running within 30 days of their last start. If you had backed all 63 runners you would have made a £52.5pts profit to a £1 level stake and +100.76 to BFSP.
This year's Kim Muir boasts both an impressive field size and depth. Indeed, one could make a compelling case for half of the 24-strong field.
Inothewayurthinkin appears to have been meticulously prepared for this race and can improve for the step up to 3m 2f. With favourable ground conditions and the talented Derek O’Connor booked, he emerges as a strong contender. However, there are slight concerns regarding his jumping, and his current odds don’t offer much value in such a competitive field.
Where It All Began recently secured his first win over fences in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown, displaying a preference for testing ground and 3m 3f. Although his chances may be affected by drying ground, he remains nicely handicapped and could be a serious threat if replicating that recent performance. Stablemate Cool Survivor, while yet to win over fences, has won over hurdles (3m) and could improve for today's longer trip.
Angels Dawn, last year’s winner, showcased a return to form with a third-place finish in the Thyestes Chase. However, she’s 11lb higher than 12 months ago and faces a stronger line-up this time around.
Dom Of Mary demonstrated his staying ability when winning the Sussex National (3m 4½ f) at Plumpton two starts back and wasn’t disgraced off 9lb higher when 1 ¾ length 3rd of 8 at Sandown (3m) last time. A good stamina test will suit, and he’s got scope off his present mark when he gets such a test.
Rapper won a handicap chase over course and distance last January. Mostly out of form since, he returned to something like his best when a length 2nd of nine to Threeunderthrufive at Ascot last time. He needs to back up that latest effort which isn’t certain given his profile, but he’s got each way claims on a going day.
Bowtogreatness remains a maiden after nine starts over the larger obstacles but ran a cracker when 2½ lengths 3rd of 12 to Forward Plan in the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase at Kempton 19 days ago. However, it's worth noting that he didn't display the strongest finishing effort at Kempton, a pattern observed previously. It’s a tough race to try to break the maiden tag over fences but he’s handicapped to be competitive.
Daily Present, despite lacking experience over fences, displayed a good attitude to rally and win on handicap chase debut at Down Royal (3m) last time. The way he finished his race last time suggests a step up in trip will suit and he could be yet another dark horse in the mix.
Lastly, Whacker Clan, a winner over course and distance in October, looks poised to perform well. The runner-up that day, Twig, finished second in the Ultima here on Tuesday. This chap was not seen again until a prep run over hurdles last month, and that run should have put him spot on fitness wise; provided the ground isn’t too testing, he’s certainly one to watch closely. Stablemate Amirite was better fancied in the betting in the Cheltenham race but unfortunately his saddle slipped, resulting in a 4th place finish. On his latest outing he finished 5th of 27 in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. While he seemed to handle soft ground adequately there, his winning performances have mostly been on a sounder surface. His stamina for the 3m 2f distance still needs to be demonstrated, but he's likely on a fair mark.
Kim Muir Pace Map
It's a huge field handicap chase. They'll go quick.
Kim Muir Selection
Considering the size of the field, it's a race where more than one bet can be justified, and that's my approach. I'm opting against the potentially well-handicapped favourite Inothewayurthinkin, even though he might end up winning. At 7/1 odds I might have been interested, but at 7/2 I'm looking elsewhere. That leaves me with Where It All Began, Whacker Clan, Daily Present, and Rapper.
While Rapper has the potential to win if it's his day, his inconsistency makes me hesitant. However, I might place a small saver bet on him just in case he triumphs at a big price and I miss out. Daily Present appears to be a wise guy horse from Ireland and could attract money, but he lacks the necessary experience for me. Thus, my focus shifts to Where It All Began and Whacker Clan.
Suggestion: 1pt win 14/1 Where It All Began and 12/1 Whacker Clan
*
...
Good luck!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/FlooringPorter_Cheltenham_StayersHurdle_2023.png319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2024-03-13 14:12:312024-03-14 08:34:02Cheltenham Festival 2024: Day 3 Preview, Trends, Tips
Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.
HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!
[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]
In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...
Of all those races above, the Cheltenham is obviously the highest-rated, but only six including an odds-on favourite are set to go to post. We do, however, have a 'free' race containing a TS qualifier, So we're off to the 1.10 Huntingdon, a 14-runner, Class 5, 5yo+ handicap chase over what will pretty much be three miles on soft ground after an 80 yard rail movement is taken into account...
Whilst 14 runners takes me a little out of my comfort zone, my initial thoughts were that both LTO winners Martalmixjac and Galway Mahler would be amongst the likely winners and that with the bookies paying four places we get find a decent E/W pick or two. Martalmixjac and Galway Mahler are the only LTO winners here and the latter comes here seeking a hat-trick.
Call Off The Dogs and top-weight Twenty-Twenty both won two starts ago and the latter was third here over course and distance last time out. Kankin, Ramore Will, Supasunrise and Doyens de Ante have all won at least one of their last seven, but lower down in the weights, Family Pot, Est Illic and Boys of Wexford have failed to win any of their last 7, 15 and 8 races respectively, whilst featured runner Dusautior, Deja Rouge and Bolberry Down are still maidens after 3, 11 and 11 attempts each.
Most of the field raced at this level last time around, but Kankin, Ramore Will and Dusautior are all dropping down from Class 4 and the latter now makes a handicap debut after three modest hurdles efforts (beaten by 24, 33 and 60 lengths) over two miles. Perhaps he's really a 3-mile chaser? He also sports cheekpieces for the first time and has had wind surgery during the 107-day break following his last outing.
Elsewhere Deja Rouge wears a tongue tie for the first time in a bid to get off the mark at the twelfth attempt. That said, i wouldn't be holding my breath about a horse whose last six runs have seen him pulled up four times, finish 5th of 9 46 lengths adrift and was last home of eleven (74 lengths down) on his penultimate start.
Dusautior's 107-day break is the longest here, whilst our oldest (13) runner Ramore Will has been away for three months with the others all having raced in the last 2 weeks to 2 months; our two LTO winners were the most recently active, one of whom, Galway Mahler is one of two course and distance winners along with Doyens de Ante. Kankin and Supasunrise have also both won here in the past, landing 2m4f chases, whilst Twenty Twenty, Ramore Will, Martalmixjac and Family Pot have all won over similar trips to this one, as highlighted by Instant Expert below...
...where despite making a first appearance here at Huntingdon, Ramore Will seems to have the best 2-year record under expected conditions and he has won 3 of his last 7 over fences. From a win perspective, Boys of Wexford has struggled at Class 5 (1 from 8 in the last 2 years and 1 from 13 overall), whilst Family Pot 'boasts' a similarly poor record over this type of trip. Galway Mahler has yet to tackle a soft ground chase, but looks well suited otherwise.
If we're going to be looking at possible E/W opportunities, then we should consider the place stats from those races above and they look like this...
...from which I'm mostly interested in choosing from...
Twenty-two races isn't a huge sample size, but we've that many similar past races to draw upon to help us see what kind of running style might work best here and the stats tell us...
...that those setting the pace are far more successful than those chasing, but that those doing most of the chasing have the best place percentages. We track how horses run and this field's last few efforts look like this (with those I've already discounted greyed out)...
...with the top four of most immediate interest.
Summary
I originally suggested that our LTO winners Martalmixjac and Galway Mahler would be amongst the likely winners and both score well on Instant Expert and pace, but Galway Mahler scores best throughout and would be my choice here, hopefully at around 4/1 to 5/1 when the market opens. Martalmixjac should certainly runs his race and be thereorthereabuts, but I wouldn't expect him to be an E/W backable price for my stipulations.
This leaves Supasunrise who has been pretty consistent (4 top-3 finishes inc 1 win from his last 6) this season under today's jockey and Doyens de Ante who needs to bounce back to form after a couple of indifferent efforts. He was in great nick last season around this time of year finishing 2211 in and around this trip and could be dangerous if getting back near those performances. This pair are hopefully to be priced around the 9/1 & 20/1 mark respectively and could be decent E/W options with the 10/1-ish Family Pot one of the more likely alternatives.
Cheltenham Festival 2024: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips
Day Two. Wednesday. The second half of the first half and a day when, seemingly, it has rained since time immemorial. After a full on drenching last year, the action may again be played out under sullen skies and over sodden swards. Be that as it may, we have a second septet of compelling skirmishes, each one an opportunity to play up - or down - our tank. Vamanos!
1.30 Gallagher Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m5f)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno.
Ah, the BallymoreBaring Bingham Gallagher Novices' Hurdle. Fair play to the new sponsors, who stepped in at the eleventh hour to support this race and who, I trust, got a commensurate discount as a result. It's a disappointing reality that sponsors are hard to come by at the pinnacle event - certainly the one where those hawking products and services can expect the most eyeballs and, therefore, traction - in the sport. By my count, and there might be reasons unknown to me for why they're not, none of the National Hunt Chase, Grand Annual, County and Martin Pipe have a sponsor. Crikey. Anyway, the Bally... Baring... Gallagher does, and good luck to them: they're an insurance company and Jockey Club supporter lest you didn't know.
Down the years, this race has been more of a kingmaker for the Champion Hurdle than the Supreme in spite of that one's recent alumnus Constitution Hill flying the flag for the day one curtain raiser. Gallagher simply looks at Ballyburn and says, "hold my drink"...
There is little doubt in anyone's mind that, prior to the 2024 Cheltenham Festival, Ballyburn brings the best novice form. His pre-race RPR is 7lb superior to anything else in this race and 10lb clear of the top rated in the Supreme (Slade Steel, who he comprehensively beat last time). Five runs to date (six if you include his easy point win) have yielded two bumper scores, latterly at the Punchestown Festival, and, though beaten on seasonal debut by Firefox, he's since won a maiden (by 25 lengths from a good horse) and the Grade 1 two mile novice at the Dublin Racing Festival, by seven lengths and with another seven back to the third. He's got an almighty engine on him, and seems to be pretty versatile ground wise; the trip is fine and he can lead or race handily; and he's jumped very well in the main.
The only slight reservation I can think of - and it is really slight - is that he's not had to jump a hurdle at the business end in his last two races; so while he's been well on top each time, we don't know how he hurdles under pressure. I expect he'll be fine, but I don't know.
A better question might be to ask which horses can put him under pressure, so let's posit that one. Ile Atlantique, another Willie entry, was outstayed by yet another from Closutton in Readin Tommy Wrong in the G1 Lawlor's of Naas over two and a half last time. Tommy heads for the Albert Bartlett, rightly so as his effort in Naas was very much one of a stayer. It is often said of the Gallagher that it's more of a speed than a stamina test, with runners tending to settle into a steadier rhythm than, say, the Supreme - a two mile burn up from flag fall. That being the case, Ile Atlantique's two mile tactical speed could be valuable, though he's only run once over timber prior to his defeat last time. That was a maiden hurdle which he won by 19 lengths, beating little of consequence. He looks to have a good bit to find, though it's possible that he will locate at least some of the form deficit with Ballyburn for his ultra-shrewd owner, Tony Bloom (pictured above).
Predators Gold is a horse that interests me. He's a son of Masked Marvel, a sire I've bet on being 'the coming man' of the NH stallion ranks by acquiring and syndicating an expensive yearling filly with 50% his genes! It'll be a few years before we find out how good she is, and in the meantime I've become a full-time cheerleader for the Marvel behind the Mask. He's pretty good is this lad in spite of silver medals the last twice. Those were both in G1's, at two miles and then two and three-quarters, and this slight drop in trip on presumed slightly better ground could be the happy medium he seeks. In truth, I don't think he can beat Ballyburn - he's a touch more exposed than a couple of others in here - but he's a good chance of being on the podium again. Does it go without saying that he's a 42nd string to the wildly hirsute Mullins bow?
Best of the British could be Handstands, for Ben Pauling and former Gold Cup sponsor Tim Radford. He is an unbeaten domestic, defending a point and three hurdle scores, the most recent of which was in the Listed Sidney Banks at Huntingdon, where he beat the previous Grade 1 winner and subsequent Grade 2 second, Jango Baie. That form reads pretty well for all that it's probably a dollop below the pick of the Irish team. Still, he has very clear potential and might come out as the top home team runner (if you like sound bites, his trainer has apparently suggested Handstands is better than Willoughby Court, who won this race in 2017).
Nicky Henderson has Jingko Blue, three times a runner and twice a winner to date. A non-standard prep has seen him eschew Graded action in favour of a Class 3 handicap last time out; he fair bolted up there, seeing his official rating balloon from 124 to 140 in the process. Even allowing for the further progression that leap implies, he still has something like a stone to find with Ballyburn. And soft ground may not be in his favour, though the jury remains out on that score.
Willie has the outsider Mercurey, too, this one running in the Mr Blobby / Susannah Ricci colours. He's stepping up half a mile in trip and, by Muhtathir, that doesn't look the most obvious manoeuvre (that's easy for me to spell!). So far he's been beaten in two maidens before getting off the mark in a third such race, and that doesn't fit with this race. I can't see him at all.
Jimmy Du Seuil was picked up for €200,000 in October 2022 and then we didn't see him for more than a year - amazing how often that happens with Willie runners - before he just failed to reel in stablemate Asian Master in a maiden hurdle. He was the evens favourite that day so clearly felt to be at a good level, and he made no mistake a month later in similar company.
Having written about these two horses, I was curious as to how Willie's maiden winner to Grade 1 hurdlers have performed. In 2008, Fiveforthree bridged that class chasm as a 7/1 chance in the Ballymore - now Gallagher - i.e. this race. And in 2022, The Nice Guy did likewise at 18/1 in the Spuds race. Thirty others tried and failed, though you'd have got paid out on at least six of them for a place. In other words, market wise, they've probably fared no worse than any other Willie cohort; which is to say losing a little bit over time and the real longshots don't win.
Gallagher Novices' Hurdle Pace Map
More Willies out front than a Festival urinal, and one of them will tow Ballyburn into the race if he doesn't make his own running.
Gallagher Novices' Hurdle Selection
I am not going to be especially creative here. Ballyburn can lead or follow, handles the ground, has won at the distance, generally jumps fluently for a novice and has the best form. What's not to like? Again, he's not necessarily a bad price even though he's a short price. I like Predators Gold but not to beat the jolly.
Suggestion: Back Ballyburn or just watch the race.
Previewed by Gavin Priestley, FestivalTrends.co.uk.
All of the last 14 winners were rated 144+.
All of the last 14 winners had raced 2-5 times over fences.
All of the last 14 winners had run in the previous 25-80 day period.
All of the last 14 winners had finished top 3 on their last start (when completing).
All of the last 14 winners were aged 6-8yo (10/13 were 7yo's).
All of the last 14 winners had won over hurdles from no more than 10 hurdle runs.
All of the last 14 winners raced over 2m4f-3m last time out.
All of the last 14 winners had raced 6-16 times under rules in their career.
13 of the last 14 winners ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race last time out.
13 of the last 14 winners had finished top 4 in all completed Chases.
10 of the last 14 winners had raced at a previous Cheltenham Festival.
All 27 horses fitted with headgear have been beaten this century.
The last mare to win the RSA was way back in 1981 (all 10 female runners this century have finished unplaced).
None of the last 14 winners had run on the flat.
A disappointing turnout for the race and yet again we have a Willie Mullins odds on favourite, Fact To File, to contend with but this time he doesn't quite tick all the trends boxes due to him going straight from NH flat races to chasing without running, and therefore winning, over hurdles. Although it's only a small chink in his profile it does give us some hope that we can get one of these Mullins hotpots beaten.
Paul Nicholls' Stay Away Fay won last year's Albert Bartlett Hurdle and has had a great start to his chasing career winning his first two and then running the race of his life when a close third in the Cotswold Chase last time out. Racing against hardened, more experienced chasers he battled all the way to the line to get within 3 1/2 lengths of the Grade 1-winning Mullins chaser Capodanno and last year's Brown Advisory winner The Real Whacker. Back down to novice company he should go well but wearing headgear is a big no no in the Brown Advisory and I don't like that Nicholls is reaching for the first time cheekpieces here.
If you take that pair out of the race there's very little to separate the other four runners on ratings so I'm going to take a big chance on the outsider of the field GIOVINCO who was a perfect 3 from 3 over hurdles, including a Listed win, and has done well over fences except a surprisingly poor run in the Kauto Star Novice Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day when racing on good ground. He'd previously been only 1 1/2 lengths behind Stay Away Fay on softer ground at Sandown where he travelled strongly through the race before being continously hampered by a loose horse around the 3rd last fence. He still cruised upside the eventual winner as the pair jumped the last and kept on nicely up the run in but wasn't quite able to keep a straight line and keep tabs with Stay Away Fay in the last 100 yards. He had his warm up for this when cantering home in a two-runner Limited Handicap at Newcastle, against a rival receiving 19lb, and I think he has every chance of outrunning his odds here. I just wish we had eight runners for that 3rd each way place.
Brown Advisory Chase Pace Map
An even pace likely, with Stay Away Fay expected to have his own way in front.
Previewed by David Massey. For me, this year’s Coral Cup has been about one horse for quite some time now, and more to the point, whether he’d get a run. For a long time I thought he wouldn’t; then the confirmations were made, and I thought he had a chance, and as it turns out, Doddiethegreat (for it is he) has made it with a bit to spare. What were you worrying about?
One maxim I always have in racing is this; if they’re brought back after a long absence, there’s usually a reason why, and for all that Doddiethegreat has the Scottish Champion Hurdle as the longer-term target, that doesn’t mean he can’t win this en route; and ever since his Betfair fourth he’s looked just the type to give Nicky Henderson a fifth win in the race.
After an easy score at Ascot following two years off the track last November, he showed he had retained all of his ability when second to Go Dante over 2m1f here in December, form that’s worked out well, not least from the winner who bagged the Imperial Cup at the weekend. He improved again when fourth in the aforementioned Betfair Hurdle last time, not getting the best of luck in the run but staying on strongly after the last and looking for all the world like a step back up in trip would suit.
He has already won a novice hurdle over 2m5f at Kempton back in 2021, and ground doesn’t seem to bother him. There are many ticks in boxes when looking at his overall profile, and it’ll be a big disappointment - mainly in terms of my ante-post bets - if he can’t go close.
If he blows out, then what else? Well, classy types have a decent record in the race and Ballyadam, despite the steadier of twelve stone, has bundles of it. He’s also got Festival form, which is never a bad thing, having finished fifth in the last two editions of the County Hurdle, and I do feel this intermediate trip could be ideal after finishing third to Irish Point in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown last time. A hard task off top weight, but definitely one for those exacta and trifecta mixes.
Doddiethegreat might be Nicky’s main hope, but I’d not be dismissive of First Street either. Whilst we know him best as a two miler these days, he stayed this sort of trip earlier in his career, and he has won a handicap off a 3lb higher mark back in 2022. He’s run respectably against both Lossiemouth and Constitution Hill this year and comes into this off the back of wind surgery, something he seems to need fairly regularly; but he has won after the procedure before, and the way he’s finished off over hurdles on each occasion this year has suggested he requires this step back up in trip. Another class animal with the right sort of mark from which to go well.
Others to consider for placepot and exactas/trifectas include Langer Dan, reigning Coral Cup champ and now back to that mark after some down-the-field efforts over trips too short, in the main; Sa Majeste, for so long one of the talking horses; and, at a bigger price, Supreme Gift, who has been chasing for much of the season but, back over hurdles at Ascot last time, went down fighting in a ¾l defeat: third home Astronomic View was an easy winner at Warwick on Sunday, so the form has had a boost. The visor, on that day, is retained, and Harry Cobden is hardly a negative either…
Coral Cup Pace Map
Bound to be a nice bit of pace on, and should be fair to most run styles.
Coral Cup Selection
Back Doddiethegreat at 7/1 with as many places as you can find (six generally, Skybet eight but a point shorter as I write).
A Champion Chase that has been El Fabiolo's to lose for much of the season. And in the absence of his Closutton mate and reigning champ of the past two years, Energumene, he shows at odds on to register a third victory in a row for that man Mullins, who - let's not forget - had never won the QMCC prior to 2022. More sobering for those taking the short odds is that he'd saddled three odds on favourites, and six priced 9/2 or shorter.
Remember the brilliant Un De Sceaux? Beaten at 4/6 for Willie in 2016. The mighty Douvan? Fell at 9/2 in 2018, when Min was only second as a 5/2 shot, and - worse - 7th in 2017 as a 2/9 chance. Then, more recently, Chacun Pour Soi was returned 8/13 but could only return to the 3rd place area in the winners' enclosure. Since then, Energumene was sent off at 5/2 and 6/5 in his two recent winning years.
So has Willie now found the key? Or should we be wary of quotes of around 1/3? Well, the answer is possibly yes to both questions. A casual glance at El Fabiolo's form, which reads 121111111, four of them Grade 1's, might be enough for the less curious to conclude 'case closed'. There is, however, a small niggle...
We need to talk about El Fab's jumping. It's pretty clumsy and there's no getting away from that fact. If you don't believe me, I've copied the in-running comments from his six races over fences below. He's won them all, but that might be something to keep in mind if you're tempted to pile in at cramped odds.
In opposition are the usual suspects, pretty much. Jonbon heads them, as he did the rest of the field in last year's Arkle where he was five lengths second to El Fabiolo. After that, he won four on the spin, three of them Grade 1's, before coming surprisingly unstuck at 1-4 in the Clarence House Chase, diverted for the second year in a row to Cheltenham after Ascot was abandoned. His in-running comment that day was prefaced with "didn't jump well", a feature too of his most recent quartet of races. The surprise winner that day was Elixir De Nutz, a likeable and oddly progressive ten-year-old, who had previously been pulled up and midfield in the last two renewals of the Grand Annual: that hardly screams Champion Chase contender. But he has won three of his last four, each time when eschewing his customary front-running role (indeed, when leading early over fences he's won one from ten; when racing prominently early over fences he's four from six - you'd think someone would have mentioned that to connections...)
I mean, I expect this to be well run and the top two in the market - who are clearly the best two horses in the field - have had persistent jumping frailties. While they're comfortably the most likely pair for the exacta, that's not the way to bet.
Last time out, Edwardstone looked a new man under revised tactics. Sent forward in the four-runner heavy ground Grade 2 Game Spirit he barreled clear by 40 lengths from Funabule Sivola. Quite apart from the small field and deep ground, that result is flattering because Boothill looked booked for a certain second, within ten lengths or so of the winner, when ejecting two out. Connections mentioned after that 28th career start, Edwardstone's first as a ten-year-old, that they'd worked out how to ride him. What the... fertilizer? In any case, that chat is patent hogwash as a record of four wins from six completed starts - including the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices' Chase - when racing prominently asserts. Further, he won the Tingle Creek (G1) when held up so, you know, it's not about the run style, is it? That said, such a sound bite implies he'll want to go forward here and he is unlikely to be alone in that desire.
Getting back to Newbury, and that form line has a dubious look to it; the remainder of Eddy's 2023/24 catalogue is probably a fairer reflection of where he's at: he was twice second to Jonbon before failing to stay two and a half miles behind Banbridge. In his defence, he's the most consistently good jumper of the first three in the market. But I can't really see it.
Who's left? How about Henry de Bromhead's Captain Guinness? HdB is the best trainer at the Festival in recent years - yes, even better than Willie in my opinion - and this lad has strong place prospects. Second to Energumene twelve months ago - Edwardstone tailed off as second favourite, Funambule De Sivola failing to complete - he finished last term getting close to Jonbon in the Celebration Chase at Sandown. He's been campaigned seemingly with this in mind all season: after a G2 win on debut in November, he was pulled up (post race clinically abnormal) at Christmas in a Grade 1 before running on from an impossible position in the Dublin Chase behind El Fabiolo last time. I expect him to be ridden a little closer here, and to benefit from a rapid tempo, and I think he has a decent chance of making the frame. And, if jumping is the watch word, who knows?
That leaves Gentleman De Mee, perhaps the most likely pace angle. The second runner for Willie Mullins and a second for JP McManus, this lad beat Edwardstone in the Maghull Novices' Chase (Grade 1) at Aintree two years ago and won the G1 Dublin Chase of 2023, too, so he's got plenty of class. Both of those top level scores were on the soft side of good, though it might be a lot wetter here. I just feel that, if Edwardstone also goes forward, and with any or all of Jonbon, Elixir De Nutz, Funambule Sivola and El Fabiolo snapping at his heels, he's going to be vulnerable in the last quarter of the race.
All in all, it's a fascinating renewal of the Champion Chase, and one where jumping could well decide the outcome.
Champion Chase Pace Map
Gentleman De Mee looks the most likely to take them along, with Edwardstone also expected to go forward. Elixir De Nutz could press, too, ditto El Fab or Fumble de Siv. I think they'll go quickety quick.
Champion Chase Selection
As mentioned, this revolves around jumping and the unconvincing athleticism of the front two in the market. El Fabiolo is clearly the best horse in the race and, if avoiding serious error, should win. But given that eight of the eleven horses sent off at odds on in the Champion Chase this century have been beaten (5/6, 4/5, 4/5, 4/6, 2/9, 2/5, 8/13, 5/6) I'm looking to back a horse each way. It's unlikely that neither of El Fab and Jonbon will fail to complete so we're probably playing for minor money; but in that context I want to oppose Edwardstone and play Captain Guinness. I feel it might set up for a midfield runner to close into tired horses and he could get into the first two, and then who knows?
Suggestion: Back Captain Guiness each way at 16/1 or so.
4.10 Glenfarclas Chase (Cross Country, Class 2, 3m6f)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno. Sadly, this race has been abandoned.
The Glenfarclas Chase, a cross country event contested around three ever-decreasing circles before spinning off up the straight of the main track is not everyone's cup of rosy, it's fair to say. Me, I love it, which is not to say that in recent times I've been especially successful at finding the winner. The nature of the race has changed: inaugurated as a handicap in 2005 it graduated to a conditions event in 2016 since when its become a very happy hunting ground for former - and in some cases still - high class chasers.
We're talking the likes of Cause Of Causes, Tiger Roll, and Delta Work, all of them 'medalling' in the Grand National subsequently. And all of them trained by Gordon Elliott (by proxy in one case), a man who trained a National winner before he'd trained a winner in his native Ireland. His horses jump and stay.
Delta Work is the reigning champ, having retained his crown a year ago, and bids for the three-peat (as they say across the pond - yuk). He's knocking on a bit now, eleven years young, but that didn't stop his mate Tiger Roll from bagging his own hat-trick (that's better) at the same age. When Delta Work won this last year he prepped with a 13 length 6th of eight in the Boyne Hurdle at Navan; this year he's prepped with a 15 length 6th of eight in the same race, so we all know where we are with him. He handles wet ground fine - it's wetter on the infield track than the Old and New Courses - and knows his way home blindfold around there.
But there's a ton of back class in the field this time headed by Gold Cup winner Minella Indo, and Savills and National Hunt Chase winner Galvin. Add in this year's Troytown and former Thyestes Chase winner Coko Beach and a raft of credible place contenders at least and it makes for what is very likely the deepest field in Glenfarclas history.
Minella Indo won the Gold Cup in 2021 and was second a year later; pulled up in the Blue Riband twelve months ago, his sights have been lowered considerably and he had a reconnaissance visit in the December handicap over track and trip. There he conceded a stone and a half to Latenightpass but was beaten only five lengths or so. He'd started out this season winning a Grade 3 at Punchestown but was last of the four in the Grade 1 at Down Royal after which this new plan was hatched. He stays well, has class and is proven at the track and the Festival.
Galvin probably doesn't want it too wet. Most of his best form is on a sounder surface, as when fourth in the Gold Cup two years ago; but he's raced mainly on softer recently. Indeed, he was second to Delta Work in this race a year ago and was down the field in the two handicap chases over the track/trip late last year. Sent off 10/3 favourite for the November edition, he was never put into the race; but he did run a little better in the October variant, finishing a place and four lengths behind Minella Indo. This has obviously been the plan all season but I'm not at all sure he can bring his A game when water wings are needed.
One who loves it deep is Coko Beach. He's officially top rated in the line up, on 161, and this season has run 3rd in the Munster National, won the Troytown, been 2nd in the Becher Chase and bolted up in the PP Hogan Cross Country Chase at Punchestown. He stays well, jumps well and handles most ground; the only thing I don't like about his profile is that it's a very un-Gordon Elliott prep for the race! That said, Tiger Roll came to the race in good form when winning his second Glenfarclas in 2019, but it's a weird niggle I can't quite shake. He's taken a few of my quids nevertheless.
Foxy Jacks has run cross country here three times and failed to get round twice, though he did win on the other occasion! That was in the November handicap last year in which the heavyweights Delta Work and Galvin both went missing, presumed not off. The winner that day was in receipt of a stone but faces those old foes off levels here. He's not for me, thanks, and nor are any of the others. Stattler, representing Willie Mullins, might take a few betting pounds but his trainer is 0 from 15, four places, over the Festival banks and barrels.
Of the remainder, I'd give Waldorf more chance than Stattler, and the rest just need to keep out of the way by and large.
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Pace Map
Something at a big price will lead the dawdle until the third lap, at which point the class horses will pull on their running spikes and clear away. I think.
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Selection
Gordon Elliott has won six of the last seven (one of them under the pseudonym Denise Foster) Festival cross country races and has an iron grip on a bid for a seventh. And yet it's Henry de Bromhead who saddles the ante post favourite, Minella Indo. He's highly respected but not as much as Elliott's dominance - as well as six from seven winners since 2017, he's also saddled four of the second placed horses, a quite phenomenal record. Choosing between his entries is not easy and Delta Work might well be the one. But I've been drawn to Coko Beach, still relatively young at nine and in the form of his life. He's no longer an each way price so I hope he'll go very close to winning.
Suggestion: Try Coko Beach at around 4/1 in a cracking renewal.
4.50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3, 2m)
Previewed by Rory Delargy. Two things to have uppermost in your mind regarding the Grand Annual are that the going is likely to be testing and tacky and that the switch back to the Old Course means that it is a kinder race for prominent racers, whereas the stiffer New Course was a benefit for hold-up horses (who can forget Paul Carberry on Bellvano).
There are lots of poorly handicapped horses in this race and it’s not hard to whittle the field down to horses well enough treated who can cope with the conditions and the Cheltenham fences. The significant gamble that such an approach rules out is Harper’s Brook, who is rated one of the best bets of the Festival by a couple of people I respect, but while he’s a talented horse, he strikes me as one of the very WORST betting propositions of the week.
Firstly, it’s well established that for all his talent he is ungenuine and has twice pulled himself up in front after trading at 1.01 on Betfair. I napped him on the latter occasion, so am unlikely to forget it. What really puts me off Harper’s Brook is his record at Cheltenham where he has raced four times without beating a single rival. I’ll be mildly surprised if he finishes the race and stunned, I tell you, STUNNED if he manages to win. I will have to lie down in a dark corner for quite a long time, in fact. A long time.
Saint Roi bids to become the seventh horse in Festival history to win a handicap over both hurdles and fences, but for a horse who was briefly ante-post favourite for the Champion Hurdle a few years back, his record since his County Hurdle win is disappointing, and his only win in his last 18 starts came back in December 2022. He’s capable of getting placed, but too expensive to follow.
Madara rates a mention as a progressive 5yo with a 3-3 record on testing ground, and he went to Ireland to spank the local handicappers at the DRF. I’m not dead against him here, but all the talk about his chances ignores the fact that he’s not only gone up 10lb for that win against largely unconvincing rivals (there really isn’t a great deal of depth to the two mile chase scene in Ireland beyond the top-class runners), but he is now not eligible for a juvenile allowance. That allowance was 6lb when he won at Cheltenham two starts back and still 3lb at Leopardstown but has now been eroded entirely. It won’t stop him, as such, but he’s effectively 19lb higher than when beating In Excelsis Deo two starts back, and I don’t think it has been factored into his price.
The two I like most are Libberty Hunter and Hardy du Seuil with the former looking really solid in the conditions. He would be unbeaten over fences but for overjumping on debut at Chepstow and has added wins at Wincanton and on the New Course here, beating Arkle hope Matata by a length in a 2m handicap in December. Those wins have come on heavy and soft ground and he coped well with the jumping test when scoring last time. Harry Cobden takes over from regular pilot Adam Wedge and that looks no negative, with the handicapper unlikely to have caught up with the son of Yorgunnablucky, who was bred by the shrewd Brian Eckley, who trained Libberty Hunter to win twice in bumpers before he was bought on behalf of the Ruckers for £160k.
Hardy du Seuil is lightly raced over fences having switched back to hurdles last season, but he has some solid form, and very much caught the eye when staying on into third behind Etalon at Sandown last month on his first start since April 2023. He was noted by m’learned friend Mr Massey as looking big and well (ie not yet fit) at Sandown, and he has a good record on his second start after a break, winning on his second start for Jamie Snowden over fences, and finishing third and first having needed his return last season.
His mark of 132 is 3lb lower than when an excellent second at Kelso on his penultimate chase start since when he has scored over hurdles, and the only time he’s been worse than second on soft ground since his debut came when a respectable seventh in the Imperial Cup last spring, with lifetime figures reading 22221723.
Grand Annual Pace Map
Always run at a harem scarem pace, and often suiting those not too far from the teeth of it, you may not want your pick to be too far back.
Grand Annual Selection
Suggestions: Try 13/2 LibbertyHunter, or 14/1 Hardy du Seuil
Suggested Place Lay: Harper’s Brook
Previewed by John Burke, VictorValue.co.uk. Just when I was anticipating diving into the Coral Cup or the Grand Annual, Matt presents me with the Champion Bumper! However, upon closer inspection, it seems more like a handicap in terms of the betting.
The Festival Bumper is a good example of race trends evolving, and the trend is away from big-priced winners. Four of the last five winners were returned 7/2 or shorter and the outlier was the 11/1 Willie Mullins trained Ferny Hollow ridden by Paul Townend. All the last ten winners of the Champion Bumper where LTO winners and all of them were aged five or six.
Contenders:
A maximum field of 24 horses are set to compete in this year's renewal. Despite previous trends favouring shorter-priced horses, this year's contest appears to be wide open. The absence of a standout bumper horse from Ireland contributes to the race's unpredictability, reflected in bookmakers offering odds of 6/1 for the entire field at time of writing (Tuesday morning).
Willie Mullins fields the favourite, Jasmin De Vaux, who showcased promise with a victory at Naas on his stable debut in January. Partnered again by Patrick Mullins, he's expected to perform well. Mullins also saddles Cantico, ridden by stable jockey Paul Townend, who cruised to victory at Navan last month.
Gordon Elliott's contender, Jalon D'oudairies, boasts an unbeaten record in two bumper starts and is considered a strong prospect for the race after a victory at Leopardstown last time. He’s got a big chance. Elliott also saddles Romeo Coolio, an impressive debut winner at Fairyhouse who looks an exciting prospect for staying hurdles next season.
You Oughta Know, also trained by Mullins, heads the Racing Post Ratings but faces stiff competition from other contenders.
Fleur Au Fusil won a Naas bumper on racecourse debut and followed up in a Grade 2 mares bumper at Leopardstown last month. Given how keen she was it was notable that she was able to finish off her race as strongly as she did at Leopardstown. It’s not a total surprise that Mullins opts to apply the first time hood on the mare.
Among the British challengers, Teeshan from Paul Nicholls' yard showed promise with a victory at Exeter last month, while Ben Pauling's Sixmilebridge impressed on his stable debut at Sandown. Though primarily seen as a hurdling prospect for the future, Sixmilebridge shouldn't be overlooked in this race.
Champion Bumper Pace Map
Pinch of salt pace map...
Champion Bumper selection
It looks a minefield to be honest with most of the field potential improvers. Fleur Au Fusil caught my eye with her recent Leopardstown victory, but she'll require the hood to help settle her if she’s to get home, although the faster race tempo should also help. Both Jalon D'oudairies& Romeo Coolio, trained by Gordon Elliott, stand out as strong contenders, and it's difficult to choose between the two. Teeshan appears to be the top choice among the British runners and can secure a place, or even victory, in the race.
In the end I'm wavering between Jalon D'oudairies and Teeshan, but I've settled on the former. The 13/2 available looks fair in a race which I have priced up at 6/1 the field.
Suggestion: 0.5pt win - Jalon D'oudairies
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Good luck!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Energumene_2022ChampionChase_TonyBloom.jpg319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2024-03-12 12:37:372024-03-13 08:31:26Cheltenham Festival 2024: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips
The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.
GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points
The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.
HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.
N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.
[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]
...which is, as usual for this time of the year, very heavily Cheltenham-based. For those of you looking to separate your Festival bets from your non-Festival bets, then The Shortlist looks like this...
As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...
2.10 Cheltenham
5.55 Southwell
6.45 Newcastle
7.30 Southwell
And although the 4.10 Cheltenham has four runners on The Shortlist, I'm going to leave that alone, as better pundits than I will have already written about it here on Geegeez. Yet away from Cheltenham we do have a 15-rated Shortlist runner in one of our 'free' races, so let's head towards the 5.55 Southwell for today's column. It's as far removed from the Festival as it could be, being a 7-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 2m½f on standard tapeta...
Since finishing as a runner-up in back to back races at Wolverhampton in October and December 2023, The Craftymaster is six from six, including four wins on Tapeta, three over today's trip, one here at Southwell and one over course and distance, when two lengths clear last time out. None of his rivals won last time out, but Midnight Shimmer was a runner-up and Socialist Agenda was third of nione here over 1m6f. Aside from The Craftymaster, only Churchella has won any of their last seven races, as she scored three and five races ago.
Her hopes will be boosted by a drop down from Class 5, just as Zooks does in a first-time tongue tie, but any hope might extinguished by the fact that The Craftymaster also makes the same step down in grade, whilst Kintaro drops down two classes for his first run in cheekpieces.
The Craftymaster has five wins and a place from six efforts at 2m/2m½f and is 1 from 1 here at Southwell, but none of his rivals have scored at either track or trip with Instant Expert making our featured runner look a bit of a shoo-in...
Churchella's wins last September & December set her aside from the others on going and class, but she's still 3lbs higher than her last win despite losing her last two. That said, she ran pretty well to finish second of six over course and distance here two starts ago in what has been her only effort beyond 1m6f to date and this run is reflected below in the IE place stats...
...where bottom-weight Midnight Shimmer also becomes of interest and Sugarpiehoneybunch looks very vulnerable having made the frame just once in thirteen all-weather races. Just seven run here in total and over such a lengthy trip, my personal logic is that the draw really shouldn't have any effect on the outcome. Two miles is a long way to run after the gates open and even if you're six away from the rail, that shouldn't be the reason for not winning, but I'll check the stats anyway, of course.
I had to widen the search parameters to get anywhere near a working sample size, as follows...
...and although they (and I normally) say you can't argue with stats, I think that some hold more validity than others and I remain unconvinced that draw is as important in small-field staying races as it might be elsewhere (sorry, Matt!). Pace, however, is a different story as race tactics/tempo can easily make or break a horse's chances and what we found from those races above was that leaders have a good record of making the frame, but don't manage to hold onto the lead...
If we look at the field's most recent efforts, I think that the lead will be contested by Zooks, Kintaro and Midnight Shimmer...
...which makes them very susceptible to late runs from The Craftymaster, Churchella and Socialist Agenda, as I've already put Sugarpiehoneybunch out of contention.
Summary
He's going to be terribly short, but barring some form of fluke or disaster, this has to be The Craftymaster's seventh win on the bounce. I know he's up in weight carrying a penalty but he's down in class and should blow these all away late on. I'm not a fan of backing shorties and there were no odds available at 3.15pm on Monday, but the two tissues I saw had him at 5/4 & 7/4 and if you can get those types of prices, then there could actually still be some value from a runner that I think should be odds on.
Elsewhere, Midnight Shimmer and Socialist Agenda should run their races and the tissues have them at around the 7/2 and 4/1 mark respectively, but the one I think that might beat them and make the frame would be Churchella at 11/2 or thereabouts. She's got some relatively recent winning form in the bank and has two wins and a runner-up finish from four rides with Danny Tudhope in the saddle and Danny is 19 from 88 (21.6% SR) on the tapeta here at Southwell, including 8 from 32 at Class 6, 7 from 21 on favourites, 5 from 30 for trainer David O'Meara and 2 from 2 on Class 6 favs.
We're back! The 2024 Cheltenham Festival is here, and I can't wait! Finding winners will, in the main, be tricky; though value is lurking everywhere. The job of our race previews will be to combine those two challenges to try to give you something to cheer and something back at the end of it. I've asked a few smart judges to help me with the previews, so as well as a trio of races each day from yours true, there's one daily preview each from our own David Massey, plus Rory Delargy, Gavin Priestley and John Burke. All the fun of the fair - let's crack on!
1.30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno. The big roar that accompanies this race sometimes feel like a racecourse full of punters has been holding its collective breath for 361 days (or 362 this time around). And the traditional curtain-raiser is usually a very satisfying conclusion to the prior hiatus, pitching together a raft of exciting unexposed types all with even grander aspirations down the line.
In the recent past, the Supreme has not been the Irish benefit it might appear at first glance. Yes, Barry Connell won it last year with the sadly absent from the Festival this time Marine Nationale, but before that Nicky Henderson prevailed in both 2022 and 2020 - and 2016 - and Tom George took the major honours in 2018. Odd years Ireland, even years UK? Probably not, but that's a nice symmetry to remind us that the domestic runners have performed well in recent renewals.
Since 2011, 0nly the very talented monkey Labaik won this without having also scored the time before, and he was 25/1 when the tapes rose (he should have been almost that price to actually jump off). You're not getting north of 4/1 about Firefox who was similarly vanquished the last day. Of course, his supporters will protest that he was up half a mile in trip and didn't stay; maybe that's right, and his form at this range - notably when beating the presumed superstar Ballyburn the time before - stands very close scrutiny for all that it was 'only' a 24-runner maiden hurdle. Let me put it another way: while it won't necessarily stop him winning, Labaik is the only horse this century to win the Supreme having finished further back than third on his prep run. If you still like Firefox (I do, just not his price), you may be heartened to know that he, like Labaik, is trained by Gordon Elliott.
Willie Mullins naturally saddles a phalanx of blue bloods, and his first choice normally wins. Indeed, going back to Ebazayin, a 40/1 scorer for Mullins in 2007, that was his only - and therefore first choice - entry. He's since won another five Supremes, each ridden by the stable jockey (Ruby four times, Paul Townend once). That Paul has opted for Tullyhill is a potential red herring this year because Mystical Power has a retained jockey - and there is nothing to separate them in the market as I write (Sunday afternoon).
Mystical Power runs in the green and gold of JP McManus, but is co-owned by Susannah Ricci and Mrs John Magnier. He's by Galileo out of the star mare Annie Power, which perhaps explains the ownership triumvirate - or at least two-thirds of it. He's three from three to date - a bumper, a novice at the Galway Festival, and the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer in January. Winners of the Moscow Flyer include Douvan, Vautour, Min, and more recently Impaire Et Passe. While the form of this season's renewal has yet to be franked, Mystical Power bolted up by seven lengths and he is yet to be extended.
Closest to A Dream To Share in last year's Grade 1 Punchestown bumper was Tullyhill, who got off the mark at the second time of asking over timber having been second on debut at odds of 1-8. Ouch! The bridge jumpers knew their fate early, mind, as he overraced from the start, jumped poorly throughout and was spent by the second last, eventually beaten a whopping 24 lengths that day. Of course, that effort was all wrong as he showed when waltzing home by seven in a maiden field of 25 next time, and more materially when dotting up by nine in a Listed novice on heavy ground last time. That form is questionable in the context of a race like this, though he beat Jigoro by slightly further than did Mystical Power, and he couldn't really have won any more easily.
If you liked Ballyburn for this, his representative is the Henry de Bromhead-trained Slade Steel, who was third and second to the Gallagher Novices' Hurdle favourite in a bumper and a Grade 1 novice hurdle respectively. De Bromhead has ostensibly a poor record in this - though a great record at the Festival - but closer scrutiny reveals that of his eight previous runners, Captain Guinness was brought down two out when still tanking along, Ballyadam finished second, and Inthepocket was fourth, all since 2020 and from just four entries. Henry is perhaps the best target trainer of all in recent Festivals, his hit rate at the last five being a scarcely believable one in seven.
A bit of a wise guy horse on the preview circuit has been Mistergif, another Willie wunner, this one in the double green of Munir and Souede. Rated 75 or so on the flat in France, he failed to win in nine starts before trying hurdling. Under the new code, he was fifth in a Listed race on his debut and then second in a conditions event, both at Auteuil; but the horse that beat him on that final French start is zero from five (fallen three times, third once) since. True, since transferred to Closutton he's won his maiden by a street, but again that form looks shallower than the toddlers' end at your local baths. He's pretty exposed is this chap and he's shown very little. Of course, he can win, but there's now't in the book to say he should.
Let's go back to the Brits and those even numbers. Nicky Henderson bids for a 2020/22/24 treble with Jeriko Du Reponet, in the same McManus ownership as Mystical Power. Winner of his point by 11 lengths from The Other Mozzie, a relatively modest chap under Rules to this point, he was a big talking horse before making his debut at Newbury at the start of December. He won there, and twice subsequently, but without looking a star on any of those occasions. That said, the most recent effort was in the Grade 2 Rossington Main where the horses beaten into second and third ran 1-2 in the G2 Dovecote next time; that adds some much needed ballast to Jeriko's form.
On numbers, the Seven Barrows runner has plenty to find; but when we consider that Nicky also had second placed Jonbon behind Constitution Hill in 2022 and third placed Chantry House (and fifth placed Allart at 33/1) behind Shishkin in 2020, as well as third placed Buveur d'Air behind Altior in 2016, it's fair to say that he has unleashed some serious horsepower in the Supreme. In fact, overall, 17 of Henderson's 32 runners in the race finished in the first three - take that, Willie! There's a leap of faith required with this chap that there isn't with some of the Irish Grade 1 horses but that's reflected in their respective odds. One does need to keep a weather eye on the yard's form, however, as there have been a fair number of P's on the recent Hendo score card. He hasn't had a runner, let alone a winner, since 2nd March and has just one entered pre-Cheltenham, at Plumpton on Monday.
What about Tellherthename for Ben Pauling? It's at this time of year that we hear plenty of "the best I've ever trained" bluster, and Pauling has gone on record as naming this fellow in that category. The son of Malinas, a £200k purchase at Cheltenham this time last year having won his Irish point, was a close second on debut behind the subsequent Grade 1 winner Jango Baie, and followed that up with a 14 length verdict over Lucky Place, who went on to narrow Grade 2 defeat subsequently. Clearly not right when reopposing Jango Baie in that G1 he was pulled up on the soft ground there before beating the geegeez.co.uk syndicate horse Dartmoor Pirate into second at Huntingdon last time. The Pirate has since run a mighty fourth of 17 in the famously competitive EBF Final last Saturday, with Pauling novices filling out the first two places there! Tellherthename was withdrawn from the Betfair Hurdle on account of the ground and connections will want it to dry out as much as possible for their charge. With the forecast being for persistent drizzle and light rain, official going of soft is a very short price. That would have to count against this lad.
One who would be right at home in the mud and at a massive price, too, is Favour And Fortune, second in the aforementioned Aintree G1, and a winner on heavy previously. He was just touched off in a muddling three horse race last time (heavy) with this tempo expected to be more his metier. He was thumped in the Champion Bumper here a year ago (soft), however, so just might not be good enough.
I'm struggling to make a case for any of Kings Hill, Supersundae and Gold Dancer. The latter pair are both trained by Willie Mullins and both came with ostensibly good French form. Gold Dancer could conceivably step forward significantly from his first run for his new trainer but he'd very much need to.
Supreme Novices' Pace Projection
Closutton holds the key to the pace. Mistergif led on his sole Irish start though that was a maiden hurdle only, while Tullyhill has led the last twice. Firefox has also led in two of his last three, likewise Tellherthename. Even to fast looks the most likely pace setup on the scant evidence we have.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle Selection
This looks very open between the top four or five in the market, none of which would be a surprise winner. Mystical Power and Tullyhill are a coin toss for which one finishes ahead, my suspicion being that Mystical Power might edge that side bet. Firefox requires a leap of faith that the longer trip was the reason for his below par effort last time; even if you buy that, questions can be asked as to why he was tested over that extended range; he's a very good horse - duh - but plenty short enough in the betting for my liking. And that brings us to Jeriko Du Reponet and Slade Steel. The former has his trainer's long term Supreme record very much in his favour, but his trainer's recent form very much not. On balance, unless he drifts to a double figure price, I'll let him beat me - if he did drift he'd be playable win only, I think. Slade Steel has a top trainer and top form behind Ballyburn (who was a strong favourite for this before defecting to the Gallagher). He'll be finishing strongly and looks a solid each way alternative to a 'nothing between them' top of the market.
Suggestion: Back Slade Steel e/w at 5/1or bigger, four places if you can find 'em
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2.10 Arkle Challenge Chase (Grade 1, 2m)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno. More Grade 1 action, you lucky people, as the first foray over fences, the Arkle Challenge Trophy, follows the Supreme. Somewhat downgraded by the absence of a number of high profile horses, most recently and notably Marine Nationale, the reigning Supreme champ, we're left with a competitive but trappy wagering challenge.
As I write there are four horses priced at 5/1 or shorter, headed - just - by Gaelic Warrior. Trained by Mullins for Ricci, he was presumed for the Turners after his romp in the Grade 1 Faugheen Novices' Chase over two and a half miles at Christmas. But then came Leopardstown and the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF) where, in the Grade 1 novice chase there, he just ran a shocker. Mistakes with his fencing likely contributed to him dropping out of contention from before three out, and he was well beaten when unshipping Paul Townend at the last.
It's not obvious, to me at least, why he's running here rather than the longer race on Thursday, and he's a very shaky favourite in my book after that lamentable showing last time (at odds of 4/7). True, he had solid form prior to that, but was never in the Arkle conversation. Perhaps the defection of Marine Nationale has to do with his arrival in this slot, but I just don't like his prep at his price. The first time hood doesn't look a plus either - Willie Mullins has saddled 30 horses with a hood at Cheltenham in the last five years and only one of them won:
Willie also has Il Etait Temps, soundly enough beaten by GW at Limerick in that Faugheen but a winner either side, most recently in the G1 Irish Arkle, also at the DRF. He too wears a hood here and, though more likely to run his race than Gaelic Warrior, I feel, his best race is not as good as that one's, and only a fine margin in front of Found A Fifty, just a neck back last month. Found A Fifty has led in each of his four chase spins and will face pace contention here; that might compromise his chance. In any case, he looks a little way behind peak showings from the other pair mentioned so far.
My Mate Mozzie was only a length and a half behind Found A Fifty but hasn't raced this year, and his best form looks to be on better ground.
The fourth sub-5/1 musketeer at time of writing is Hunters Yarn, and he's a third wheel for Willie. It didn't really work out for Hunters in the County last season, sent off 11/2 but finishing mid-div, and he's been beaten twice from three starts since: he was second in a G2 novice hurdle at Fairyhouse last Easter before kicking off over fences with a tumble at the last when clear. Most recently, he bolted up on his second attempt at a beginners' chase and, while he's generally a very good jumper, he made a horlicks in each of those chase starts. Even in what looks a sub-par Arkle, he doesn't seem quite good enough on the evidence to date.
Remember Quilixios? He was a very smart juvenile hurdler and the Triumph winner in 2021. In the following season he was bested three times by Teahupoo at two mile trips before having a long (nearly two years) spell on the sidelines. Back this season as an older, stronger horse he's won two of three chases, both ungraded. In between times, he was thumped in the G2 Florida Pearl over three miles. Whilst it's perfectly fair to assume he didn't stay there, the balance of his post-injury form requires a lot to be taken on trust regarding retained ability.
Mention this in hushed tones, but is it possible that this year's Irish cohort are not as good as normal? The best of the home guard could be Jpr One, trained by Joe Tizzard. Joe is in good form - two notable winners at Sandown's big weekend fixture - and this one has a nice bit of experience after four chase outings. He unseated at the last over course and distance in November, when seemingly having the race in the bag, but had a win before and since. The 'since' comprises two runs, a third place in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices' Chase when making a mistake two out, and a win last time in the G2 Lightning Novices' Chase on very soft ground at Lingfield, narrowly from the re-opposing Matata. Matata is one of the pace angles in the field and that may see him do too much too soon, whereas Jpr One tends to be handy but off the speed.
Nigel Twiston-Davies saddles both Matata and Master Chewy, the latter one of the more experienced chasers in the field. On his run behind Champion Chase hopeful Elixir De Nutz - beaten just a length and a half getting nine pounds - he is better than a 25/1 poke. And there are reasons to throw out his defeat behind Jpr One last time: specifically, he was almost brought down at the first as Matata veered right down the fence causing Djelo to fall and Master Chewy to take back in evasive fashion as the meat in the sandwich. He was unsure at his next couple of fences before regaining some composure but it might be that his race was run.
Authorised Speed doesn't look slick enough at his obstacles, and probably not good enough in any case.
Arkle Pace Projection
Lots of speed, most obviously from Found A Fifty and Matata, but also Gaelic Warrior, Jpr One and Authorised Speed - perhaps others, too.
Arkle Chase Selection
I really don't like this race from a betting perspective. You have to make excuses for the horses at the top of the market where their price doesn't allow for such latitude. And you have to be imaginative to see the horses lower down the lists beating the ones at the top. But perhaps this is a race for imagination play. In that spirit, I'll take the Brits to beat the Irish, primarily through Jpr One and Master Chewy.
Jpr One has the best domestic form but not by much; he also has a trainer in form and can handle conditions. Master Chewy is a bit of a punt but, if ridden patiently, he might be able to pick up the pieces... and if they go a million on the front then he could just nick the whole enchilada. Of course, he's priced as though he has little chance and that may be how it transpires. Caveat emptor.
Suggestion: Try one or both of Jpr One 9/1 and/or Master Chewy 25/1 each way and cheer Blighty against the raiders.
Tix Pix: Spreading out all over A, B and C in what looks a trappy race. Check out Tix here >
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2.50 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3 handicap, 3m1f)
Previewed by Gavin Priestley, FestivalTrends.co.uk.
The Ultima is the first handicap of the meeting and is a hyper-competitive race that can throw up some very useful performers. Last year's winner Corach Rambler, which was doubling up in the race having scored in 2022, went on to win the Grand National on his next start while the horse he beat by a neck, Fastorslow, went on to win a Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival subsequently and now sits second in the betting for Friday's Gold Cup.
Although they've been getting closer in recent times (2nd and 4th last year), the Irish don't have a great overall record in the Ultima (0/38 since 2007) and you have to go back to 2006 and Tony Martin's Dun Doire to find their last winner. That doesn't mean Ireland doesn't have a say in the race, though, as Irish-bred horses have been responsible for the last five winners and ten of the last 11 (exception French-bred).
A top six finish last time out is very important (14 of the last 15, exception unseated rider) as is a run at Cheltenham previously (all of the last 17 winners, with Dun Doire the last horse to win without course experience) while all of the last ten winners have been rated 139+ (an emerging trend has seen eight of the last ten renewals go to a horse rated 139-148).
All of the last 16 winners had raced at least once since the start of Newbury's Coral Cup Handicap Chase meeting the previous November.
Applying these trends leave us with a shortlist of 4 horses: Monbeg Genius, Victtorino, Chianti Classico & Lord Du Mesnil who range in age from a 6yo to an 11yo.
20 of the 24 winners this century have been aged 7-9yo but there's been an 11yo winner in 2021, a couple of 10yo winners (2007 & 2010) plus a French-bred 6yo in 2018. The three winners before the turn of the century were all 10 & 11yo's so I'm not sure age is too much of an issue for this race.
What is worth noting, however, is that 11 of the last 14 winners had raced fewer than ten times over fences and interestingly nine of the last 12 winners had worn some king of headgear (cheekpieces, hood or blinkers). Five of the last 13 winners had run in the Ultima Handicap the previous year.
If we look through the form of the four horses on our shortlist we can see that one of them was third in this race last year, just two lengths off Fastorslow, has run only eight times over fences and his trainer reaches for the first time cheekpieces. The Irish-bred 8yo, MONBEG GENIUS, has long been my fancy for this race and despite his relatively underwhelming run at Kelso a couple of weeks ago that did come on the back of a long break since his excellent Newbury Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase third where he had picked up an injury. He raced strongly until tiring from the second last at Kelso and I'm hoping that he may have just needed the run that day. His trainer Jonjo O'Neill won the race three times between 2009-2014 and horses that had run in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury that season won in 2017, 2019, 2020 and 2023.
He ticks every box and looks a typical Ultima winner. I retain the faith in him and think he has an excellent chance at a decent price.
Ultima Pace Projection
Just an even gallop in prospect in all likelihood despite the large field.
Ultima Handicap Chase Selection
Back MONBEG GENIUS1pt EW 14/1 (6 places)
Tix Pix: A's and B's and not straying far from the top of the market.
Previewed by Matt Bisogno. In what amounts to a tragedy for fans of the sport, Contitution Hill has been suffering with an infection that has sadly ruled him out of this year's Champion Hurdle. He was long odds on to retain his crown having cruised home by a wide margin in his only run of the season, the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. I'm daring to dream that he might show up at either or both of Aintree and/or Punchestown, but realistically it might be better to get him right and go again in a (please God) busier 2024/25 campaign. It should be remembered that he's only seven, so time is very much on his side.
Anyway, enough of the no show, and on with the show show. Every leading man needs a capable deputy, and there can be no finer understudy at the entire meeting to step into the big man's shoes than State Man. Like the absent champ, he is also seven and his record reads well. Very well. F11111121111. The '2' was behind Connie Hill last year, and nothing else has got to within three lengths of him in eight - EIGHT! - Grade 1's before and since the lowering of his colours a year ago. He normally races handily or on the lead, though was held up in last year's Champion Hurdle presumably in the hope the hill found out the Hill, he's won G1's on all ground types softer than good, and he's a country mile clear on ratings. What's not to love? Well, his price maybe, because it's a very short price, though that's not to say it doesn't represent value.
If any horse can stop State Man's procession to glory it might be Irish Point, in the Robcour colours and trained by Gordon Elliott. This time last year, while State Man was getting closest to Constitution Hill, Irish Point was winning a Grade 3 novice hurdle at Naas. He's since won the 2m4f Grade 1 Mersey Novices' at Aintree, and then this season he's added a Grade 3 at Down Royal and the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown. So far so good. But that Leopardstown race is contested over almost three miles and, as the name suggests, it was contested at the end of last year. Not since then have we seen this fella. It was a terrifically convincing score there but in a slow time beating (relatively) slow horses. I don't see how that makes him second pick for a Champion Hurdle. But I've been wrong about such things many times before.
Iberico Lord was supplemented for this after the defection of stablemate Constitution Hill, and he has serious handicap winning form this term. Specifically, he won the Greatwood over course and distance in November and then the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in February. The third and fifth from the Betfair finished 1-2 in the Imperial Cup at the weekend so that form looks solid. In between times, Iberico Lord was well beaten at Ascot and perhaps it was a combination of the slower pace and faster turf that did for him. It should be at least a little bit softer here but whether there's much pace in the race remains to be seen. Whilst he's obviously progressive, he's got about a stone and a half to find on official ratings if the favourite runs to within a pound or three of his mark.
It's possible that Luccia could be sent on in a bid to force a stronger pace, she herself having made all in the race when her barn mate Iberico flopped; but that's not her normal run style. And nor should a 140-rated mare be in the same conversation as a 165+ gelding.
The wonderful veteran Not So Sleepy is hard as nails and still retains plenty of ability even at the ripe old age of twelve. His form in the race is P565 and, though he did win the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth, that was 94 days ago and a weaker G1 you'll struggle to find. Please don't misunderstand me: I love this bloke; I just don't want to bet him to win a Champion Hurdle.
Willie also has Zarak The Brave, who is at least vaguely credible for the frame at a price. His form this season is 1P1, wins in the Galway Hurdle (off 145 in a field of 19 on goodish ground) and a Naas Grade 3 in a small field on soft sandwiching a flunk when he was found to have been post-race clinically abnormal. I'm not entirely sure what that means but perhaps it was a fibrillating heart; conjecture aside, if he can bring his A game he is one of the few within a stone of State Man on ratings.
Champion Hurdle Pace Projection
Either or both of Not So Sleepy and Luccia could go forward, but there's not a ton of obvious early speed.
Champion Hurdle Selection
This is all about State Man. He's a very unsexy price but might still be value at around 1/3. You can expect Iberico Lord to shorten if Nicky's team have shown anything prior to this race, and he looks the one with the most upside - he needs to be as the second lowest officially rated in the field and with 26lb to find on a strict interpretation of the book. I don't really fancy Irish Point, who in my view would have been better placed in the Stayers' Hurdle even if his owner does have Teahupoo for that. No, this is State Man's to lose. And I don't expect him to lose it.
Suggestion: Watch State Man win well. And/or back him to do likewise.
Tix Pix: If State Man is beaten, a lot of jackpots will go pop. Including mine. He's never raced on heavy
Previewed by John Burke, VictorValue.co.uk. Let’s begin with what look like some of the key race trends.
Favourites (Clear & joint) have won 3 of the last 10 renewals of the Mares Hurdle and have performed 44% worse than market expectations. Eight of the last 10 winners had an Official Rating of 147 or higher. Six of the last ten winners were trained by Willie Mullins (4) and Henry De Bromhead (2).
Last year's Triumph Hurdle winner, Lossiemouth, made a highly impressive return to action here on Trials Day. While she's the clear favourite and the most likely winner, stepping up to 2m 4f poses a question mark on her stamina.
Lossiemouth’s nearest market rival, stablemate Ashroe Diamond, boasts an impressive record of five wins from six starts against her own sex. If the favourite falters due to stamina, Ashroe Diamond could capitalize, although the fitting of a first-time hood for a return to 2m 4f would be a slight concern.
Love Envoi, winner of the Mares' Novices Hurdle here in 2022, finished a 1 ½ length second to Honeysuckle in this race last year. Although she hasn't been at her best this season, she was a 9 ½ length runner-up to Lossiemouth in the International Hurdle here (2m 1f) last time. We know she seems to thrive at the Festival and the fitting of first-time cheekpieces could improve her performance against Lossiemouth. Each-way claims remain.
The Henry de Bromhead pair of Telmesomethinggirl and Lantry Lady shouldn't be dismissed outright. Telmesomethinggirl, who returned to hurdling this season after a stint over fences, looked rusty on her seasonal return at Leopardstown but was a lot better when a 1¼ length 2nd of four to Zarak The Brave at Naas last time. It’s worth remembering that she was going well when brought down two out in this race in 2022. Lantry Lady, who falls into the "could be anything" category, boasts a perfect 2-2 record over hurdles with wins on heavy ground. The 2m 4f distance should bring out more improvement in her. Although Rachael Blackmore appears to prefer Telmesomethinggirl, Jack Kennedy is a capable substitute. Both of Henry de Bromhead's mares present each-way opportunities. The same trainer also saddles Hispanic Moon.
Mares' Hurdle Pace Projection
An even pace is most likely, perhaps even a slow one. That said, plenty of owners and trainers are represented by multiple runners so they may send a 'hare' forward to chase. Regardless, it's not easy to see this being quickly run.
Mares' Hurdle Selection
The outcome of the race largely depends on Lossiemouth's ability to stay the 2m 4f distance today. If she manages to do so, she will outclass her rivals. However, her tendency to be keen raises a doubt about her effectiveness over longer distances. Excluding Lossiemouth, the race appears wide open. last year's runner-up, Love Envoi, is a contender for the places once again. However, I lean towards the Henry De Bromhead duo of Telmesomethinggirl and Lantry Lady. While Rachel Blackmore seems to prefer Telmesomethinggirl, Lantry Lady shows more potential for further improvement, making her the more intriguing option.
Suggestion: Lantry Lady– 0.5pts each way – 33/1 @ Bet365
Tix Pix: A's, B's and C's in here in search of a result, I think. Check out Tix here >
I was delighted to be asked by Matt to contribute to the Geegeez previews this week, and was even more delighted when he asked me to look at one of the key handicaps each day. Looking forward to working on the Ultima for Day One, imagine my horror when, instead, he gave me the Chinese puzzle ball that is the Boodles. Many thanks to our Dear Leader for his generosity! [Sorry mate! - Ed.]
The Boodles. Plot race, right? Just back the one that’s been given three quiet runs and a mark that’s well below what it’s really capable of. Well, have a look at the price of the winners over the past ten years - just one winning favourite, every other winner bar one returned at double figures including a 25-1 winner, three 33-1 winners and Jeff Kidder at 80-1, who had started out in the August of the previous year and was having his fifth start over hurdles. Stats, schmats.
My starting point for this is Milan Tino, who wouldn’t fit many of the trends but has been given a chance by the British handicapper off a mark of 126, which looks very fair based on his French third to Jigme in a Grade 2 at Auteuil last October. Jigme went on to win the Grade 1 Grand Course later in the year and that form, along with what he’s achieved in two starts at Cheltenham this winter, make him a solid option. Physically, he’s looked a horse that wants further already to my eyes, and it can’t be a bad thing that he’s already shown form over a bit further than two miles, such stamina likely to come in handy on ground expected to ride soft on the first day after Sunday’s rain.
Of the Irish, it’s tempting to go in with Willie’s Batman Girac after an eyecatching run at Leopardstown last time, one that certainly suggested the Boodles would be his next stop; but, despite some near misses, this is one race at the Festival that Closutton have yet to get the better of, and I’d prefer Willie Durkan’s Eagle Fang, who comes from the Naas race that has thrown up Brazil, Jazzy Matty, Aramax and Band Of Outlaws in recent times. The way he came clear in the closing stages, in heavy ground, was a good step up on anything he’d achieved previously and whilst this will be his sixth run over hurdles already, which you could argue means other, more lighty-raced types could improve past him, he’s more battle-hardened and should run his race. At 16-1 and bigger, with extra places on offer, that makes plenty of appeal.
Back in fourth at Naas was Nara, who really has looked a Boodles project on her two starts on Irish shores so far. A ready winner on her only start in France at Auteuil (last April!), she looked very much in need of the experience when fourth to Nurburgring at Fairyhouse in December, her novicey jumping holding her back from finishing any closer than a one-paced fourth; but she travelled and jumped better at Naas, looking some sort of threat between three out and two out before her early exertions saw her flatten out late. The reapplication of the hood looks a smart move, as she was a bit keen pre-race and I don’t expect to see her in the paddock at Cheltenham until the bell for jockeys-up goes, at which point it’ll be straight in and straight out again. There should be more to come once she learns to take her racing better, for all you’d struggle to say she’s been thrown in here.
If we’re looking for the Hail Mary, a phrase our editor Matt loves so much, then it has to be Latin Verse. He looks so unlike a Boodles winner it’s untrue - this will be his seventh hurdles start and he’s already raced in an all-aged handicap at Ludlow last time out, one which he won by no fewer than 19 lengths. A 10lb rise for that win not only looks lenient - Timeform expected him to get a stone and more - but it creeps him right into the bottom of the handicap. If you’re a lover of figures (and we are, of course) he comes out well on both form and time. In some ways he reminds me of last year’s fifth Mr Freedom, who took a totally different route from most Boodles campaigners and was having his tenth start of the season, having taken in a couple of handicaps, by the time he got to Cheltenham, but it didn’t stop him from that strong finish (and might have done better still but for his pilot almost coming off turning for home). I suspect Latin Verse can similarly show that experience is no bad thing when it comes to the Boodles. At 33-1 and six places, he has to be worth a few quid each-way.
Boodles Handicap Hurdle Pace Projection
Not a map to place too much store by, because many can be expected to adopt a different run style now they're actually doing their best!
Boodles Handicap Hurdle selection
Try 28/1 Latin Verse or 20/1 Eagle Fang each way.
Tix Pix: Depending on how much bankroll I've got left, I'll take as much A action as I can afford, and back up with some B's. There will be hedge opportunities on Betfair if it's worthwhile. Check out Tix here >
Previewed by Rory Delargy. The National Hunt Chase has changed markedly in character since gaining Grade 2 status and being shortened in trip. What used to be a race for Corinthian amateurs in which anything could – and frequently did – happen, has become a classy contest dominated by Irish shamateurs (that is to say you can’t book one without a buff envelope), and there is no point in the old plodders turning up any more. In some ways that’s a shame, but the farrago of the 2019 running where the few who finished were legless was a pathetic last hurrah for the race of old.
On that cheerful note, let’s dive into the latest renewal, with just the seven runners meaning there’s no point looking for an each-way angle into the race. All seven of the runners have a chance and the first thing I want to say is that the old advice that Derek O’Connor’s mount already has a 5lb advantage is not to be believed. O’Connor has been a fine rider over the years but there are no weak links in the riding line-up here, and this race ought to go to the best horse at the trip, pure and simple.
O’Connor rides Corbett’s Cross, who was a big talking horse before running out here last year, and he was brought down in his prep race for this when the rider was given his traditional ‘feeler’ at Fairyhouse. That is hardly ideal, and while he was a respectable second in the Grade 1 Neville Hotels (Fort Leney) Novice Chase at Leopardstown at Christmas, that form hasn’t really been tested, with the winner injured and Flooring Porter (10 lengths behind Corbett’s Cross in third) reverting to hurdles. He has a chance, for sure, but is of no great interest at around 2/1 given his imperfect preparation.
Embassy Gardens, like Corbett’s Cross, was a big fancy (ante-post favourite) for the Albert Bartlett 12 months ago, but pulled up before running down the field at Punchestown. He’s won both starts over fences in the style of a useful prospect, but his defeat of Sandor Clegane at Naas saw him race on the best of the ground as the runner-up persisted with racing on the chewed-up inside, and impressive as it was, it’s very hard to put a figure on. As such, he’s short enough to be backing at current odds.
On a side note, both Corbett’s Cross and Embassy Gardens wear a hood for the first time, and while there have been several winners at the Festival to wear a first-time hood (Benefficient, Jezki and Western Warhorse to be precise), none since that trio have been successful. On the other hand, many of Willie Mullins’s runners at Cheltenham over the years have worn earplugs which have not been declared, so the figures only tell part of the story.
Salvador Ziggy has achieved as much as the pair above but is a more realistic price, with his second under 12st in the Kerry National a fine effort for a novice. He comes here after an abortive trip to run in the Grand National Hurdle at Far Hills in October, and while the absence might be a worry, he was second in the Pertemps last year off an identical lay-off. He appeals as best value of the Irish contingent.
Mr Vango has it to do on the ratings and the other three all met in the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot last time, where Henry’s Friend held off Kilbeg King and Apple Away. It may look surprising that the winner is now the outsider of that trio, but he is the one least likely to stay this six-furlong longer trip, and I’m in agreement with the betting market, for all I like the horse.
Kilbeg King got low at several of his fences at Ascot but still stayed on dourly at the end to force the winner to pull out all the stops. Prior to Ascot, Kilbeg King had jumped better when a creditable third in the Grade 1 Kauto Star at Kempton, his jumping allowing him to get into contention in the home straight having been out-paced in the middle of the race by the brilliant winner.
If he can jump like he did at Kempton, then he ought to run really well for Anthony Honeyball, who was unlucky not to win this race with Ms Parfois a few years ago (winner Rathvinden would have been demoted under new whip rules). Like Ms Parfois, Kilbeg King will be ridden by Will Biddick, who has been the best English amateur at Cheltenham over the past decade and more.
APPLE AWAY is seemingly held on Reynoldstown form, but I thought she was better than the bare result at Ascot, jumping really well on the whole and trying to battle back when getting squeezed out at the final fence. She was picking up again at the line, and appeals to me as the sort to relish a thorough test of stamina. It’s worth recalling that she was a Grade 1 winner over hurdles at Aintree last April, and it’s typical of Lucinda Russell’s horses to only show their very best form in the spring. She got involved in an ill-advised pace duel when second to Grey Dawning in the Grade 2 Hampton Novices’ Chase at Warwick and my belief is that she can improve enough for the step up to 3¾m to turn the tables on the pair who beat her at Ascot.
National Hunt Chase Pace Projection
Mr Vango is a forward goer, so too Apple Away; but the small field means they'll likely be steady away over this extended trip.
National Hunt Chase Selection
Selection: 1pt win APPLE AWAY at 10/1
Exotic Mixers: Kilbeg King & Salvador Ziggy (1/4 pt combination exacta)
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And that's a wrap for Day 1 at the Cheltenham Festival 2024. Hopefully this has been an entertaining read, and with a little luck, there's a winner or three in its midst. We'll all be back to do it again tomorrow - see you then.
Be lucky!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/StateMan_IrishChampionHurdle2023.jpg319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2024-03-11 13:38:262024-03-12 07:54:21Cheltenham Festival 2024: Day One Preview, Tips
Our new week starts here with a reminder that the pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's so important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday. This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for this Monday are...
2.10 Taunton
2.30 Plumpton
3.40 Taunton
8.30 Wolverhampton
Of those four raced, the highest-rated also has the widest pace spread, so let's have a look at the 3.40 Taunton, a 7-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 3m5f (after a 132 yd rail movement) on soft ground...
No LTO winners in the field, but both Enrilo and Broken Halo were runners-up ans the latter is the only runner in the field with a win in his last seven outings, having won six and seven races ago. Bottom-weight Jacamar is the only one to have completed all of his last seven starts, with Enrilo being the least successful at finishing, failing to do so four times from seven.
The top two in the weights, De Rasher Counter and Enrilo are both dropping down a class here and Laskalin wears cheekpieces for the first time. All seven have been seen in the last 25 to 58 days, so fitness shouldn't be an issue (although stamina might) and the field are 0 from 3 at this track, whilst Cyclops' 2017 Boxing Day win in the Lincolnshire National over 3m3.6f at Market Rasen is the closest any of the field have come to winning over today's trip.
Instant Expert looks like this today...
...with the experienced Cyclop having a reasonable return on the going/class. but has struggled to win more often over 3mf to 3m6f, as have the others who've tried to! Cyclop is our only previous soft ground winners, but Broken Halo and Jacamar are both more reliable at Class 3 from a win perspective. The overall poor recent form of the field is highlighted by none of the field being higher than their last winning mark, especially Jacamar and De Rasher Counter who are now rated some 13 and 14 pounds lower than their last wins. The place stats from those races above give us a little bit more to work with, thankfully...
...where again Cyclop's record looks decent, but most of that is historical rather than recent form.
Today's feature is pace and if we consult our pace analyser, we are advised that in 5 to 9-runner, 3m to 3m6f chases on good to soft/soft ground here at Taunton that runners willing to set the pace have the best records from both a win and place perspective
...and because we track/log how all horses race here in the UK, we can make a reasoned assumption as to how they might run here. We allocate a leader 4pts, a prominent runner gets 3pts, it's 2 pts for mid-division runners and 1pt for a hold-up horse and this is how the field have approached their last few outings...
...suggesting that First Lord de Cuet & Enrilo will be the pace options, whilst Broken Halo will need to pass all six rivals later on if he wants to win.
Summary
Despite the conditions and the distance of the race, it's said that pace should win the race here and the two pace options are First Lord de Cuet and Enrilo. The former has yet to win any of 11 starts over fences, but has been a runner-up six times and as his weight drops, he might be ready to win. The latter ran really well to finish second of twelve over 3m7½f in the Edinburgh National recently, even if he was beaten by some 21 lengths. He's down in both trip and class here and could go well again, even if Harry Cobden has chosen to ride stable-mate Broken Halo. That said, 5lb claimer Angus Cheleda has ridden him in three of his last four starts.
Cobden is aboard Broken Halo, who won both the Royal Artillery & Grand Military last year and was runner-up in this year's Grand Military (last time out), so he's clearly no mug but is unproven beyond 3m½f and hasn't a great record on soft ground, so I'm not sold on him completely. De Rasher Counter looks like being third rank from a pace perspective, but carrying top weight after a run of thirteen defeats stretching back to November 2019 leaves me cold. Laskalin is interesting even if the data I've shown above gives him little chance, but he has made the frame in 3 of 9 at this level and has first-time cheekpieces. He's interesting because he's trained by Venetia Williams and when you think of soft-ground staying chasers, she's one of the first trainers you think of.
So, Laskalin probably isn't a winner here, but he'll certainly relish the conditions. We've discussed Cyclop quite a bit above during the Instant Expert analysis, so it's fair to say that he should get these conditions, but might well have to come from way off the pace. Whether he can do that here is debatable, but if not too far detached might well get close to or even make the frame. Last, but not least, we have Jacamar, who might not be too far ahead of Laskalin early doors and doesn't really like soft ground. he did actually win as recently as 1st Feb '23, but has lost ten straight since then, including a pretty heavy defeat last time out.
Late-evening (9.15pm) odds look like this...
...from which I think I prefer First Lord de Cuet and Enrilo to battle it out up top. Of the three priced at what I'd deem E/W money, Cyclop would be the one that I'd be more interested in. 18/1 in a seven-horse race where the bookies are paying three places looks quite generous and you might make a small profit there.
Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My chosen settings for the report...
...have yielded just one UK qualifier plus one in Ireland...
...but I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...
7.15 Dundalk
7.45 Dundalk
8.15 Dundalk
8.30 Newcastle
...which doesn't actually give me a great deal of choice, seeing as I don't really 'do' Irish racing. That said, Enola Grey's race above is the joint third-highest rated race in the UK and the day's second most valuable, so let's have a closer look at the 7.30 Newcastle, a 12-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight mile on standard tapeta...
Sole LTO winner and bottom weight Danielsflyer comes here on a hat-trick after scoring over course and distance a week ago. Hartswood, Lahab, Hortzadar, Gainsbourg, Trais Fluors, Enola Grey and Star Shield have all won once in their last seven outings, whilst Paris Lights has lost seven in a row and Torchlight, King Sharja and L'Argent have yet to win after four, three and four attempts respectively; L'Argent was also 0 from 4 in France.
The card also indicates that Hartswood, featured horse Enola Grey and Star Shield are fast finishers, but the latter pair of that trio are both up one class here, as are King Sharja and L'Argent, whilst bottom-weight hat-trick seeker Danielsflyer is up two levels, making life tougher.
Better news for Torchlight, who drops two classes for her second handicap outing; Lahab also makes a secind handicap appearance, whilst it's handicap debut day for King Sharja, who runs for Ruth Carr for the very first time after leaving Richard Hannon's yard.
Not only is this his handicap and yard debut, it's also his first run in almost ten months, during which time he was gelded, so he might well need the run. Lahab and Hartswood are coming off short breaks of 52 and 61 days respectively and the rest of the field have all had at least one outing in the last month.
Half of the field (Hartswood, Hortzadar, Trais Fluors, Enola Grey, Star Shield and Danielsflyer) are course and distance winners, whilst Gainsbourg has also won over today's trip, as per Instant Expert...
...but the overall picture isn't great for many of these. Kng Sharja makes an A/W debut and Star Shield's record on the A/W especially at track/trip is particularly poor. Thnakfully the place stats from those races above give me more to work with...
...from which, I'm going to eliminate Hartswood, Hortzadar, King Sharja, Gainsbourg and Star Shield from my enquiries leaving me with runners in stalls 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 10 and 12 over a course and distance that has tended to suit the higher-drawn (7+) runners most...
...which is another tick for Lahab, Enola Grey, Paris Lights and Torchlight, who will run from widest of all. Mind you, there are no bends to contend with, so she just needs to aim straight! Those 150+ races above don't seem to have much of a pace bias and horses have been able to win with any running style...
Leaders have fared worst of all, but the difference in strike rates isn't huge and I wouldn't rule Lahab out of the running, simply because his recent runs have shown that he likes to set the pace...
Summary
A bit of a strange one today, as very few of these are in good form and the form horse is up two classes. We didn't get anything from the win stats on Instant Expert, but the place stats led me to eliminate Hartswood, Hortzadar, King Sharja, Gainsbourg and Star Shield. We then discovered that those drawn highest seemed to have an advantage which was better news for Lahab, Enola Grey, Paris Lights and Torchlight and the lack of any distinct pace bias leaves all four in my thoughts.
Of the four, it's easy/sensible to discard Star Shield on current form, leaving me with my three vs the field, but I think that without any clear guidance from the toolkit (and this does happen, we're not perfect!), the smart move is to call no bet and walk away, move to your next race and that's what I'll do here. I think that my final three will all go well here, but I really can't call it in what look a super-competitive event, as exemplified by the 6pm market, where the top seven in the odds are separated by just 1.5pts...
Good luck whichever way you play this one, but I'll keep my money in my pocket.
Please Note : No column tomorrow (Friday) for Saturday's racing, as I'm travelling down to Exeter so sort some University stuff out for my daughter, so I'll be back Sunday evening with a race preview for Monday. I hope you all have a great weekend.
Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.
It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...
2.25 Wincanton
3.45 Carlisle
4.55 Carlisle
7.oo Newcastle
...and whilst probably not the best race of the four, the one with most Instant Expert data to work with appears to be the 7.00 Newcastle, which is an 8-runner (hopefully good for E/W bettors), Class 6, 3yo A/W handicap over a straight 7f on standard tapeta...
My immediate thoughts were that this might end up being a two-horse race between our only LTO winner, the filly Sunblock and the consistent (placed in each of his last five) track specialist Likeashadow, who is our sole course and distance winner.
Redondo was a winner two starts ago and East Bank won on debut six races ago, but the field is pretty shy on 'recent' wins otherwise, as is often the case at Class 6. The top three in the weights, Mariamne, East Bank and Likeashadow all drop a class here with the latter now sporting blinkers for the first time. Bottom weight Ocean Bliss makes a debut in a visor and it's just a second handicap start for both Sunblock and Noble Consort.
Both Ocean Bliss and Sunblock were in action last weekend and most of the rivals have also raced in the last 14-44 days, but it's not inconceivable that (the so-far not so) Amazing Winnie might need the run after almost six months off. We know that Likeashadow loves it here (as Instant Expert will show below) and that he's the only course and distance winner in the line-up. Of his rivals, Sunblock's win over 7f at Wolverhampton last weekend is the only other distance win, whilst only one other has won here at Newcastle, as Redondo scored over a mile two starts ago and only failed by a head to 'double up' next/last time out.
We don't get a great detail from the win stats on Instant Expert, but the place stats should be more helpful...
On the win stats, I probably hold more sway with Likeashadow's full line of amber off more runs, than Redondo's line of green that weighs heavily on one win, but both also do very well on the place side of thing with Likeashadow the standout for me again, based on his sheer consistency over a dozen A/W runs, especially in his ten here at Newcastle where his form reads 8113422333 including 81423 over course and distance.
So, as things stand, we've Sunblock on form, Likeashadow on consistency and Likeashadow/Redondo on Instant Expert catching the eye. Now let's see what the draw/pace data might tell us.
...showing a somewhat surprising bias for a straight seven furlongs, but the data is what the data is and could be good news for Sunblock & Redondo in stalls 6 & 7; Ocean Bliss is drawn widest of all, whilst the Pace Analyser says that those 130+races above have suited runners keen to get on with things, but that those setting the pace have often had a target on their backs...
...so an average pace score closer to 3.00 rather than 4.00 might be the answer and this is reflected in the dominance of the high-drawn prominent runner on the pace/draw heatmap below...
Sadly we're not going to get the perfect pace/draw setup from this field and I think we might have a falsely run race with only one runner showing much aptitude for early pace...
...although Redondo did lead for 6.5f of a one mile race in Navan three starts ago and a similar run here puts him right in the mix. Amazing Winnie isn't exactly a confirmed front runner anyway and on A/W debut after nearly six months off, I'm not sure she'd hold on to even a place anyway.
Summary
Prior to looking at pace/draw, my favoured trio were Sunblock, Likeashadow and Redondo and the latter pair of those three have got really good draws. We then look at pace and I can see this being a falsely run race, which often plays into the hands of those who are normally held up for a run, as they'll have less ground to make up on the leaders this time and all three of my trio have been held up three or more times in their last four outings.
I've seen nothing to change my mind so I'm sticking with Sunblock, Likeashadow and Redondo as my three from the field. I suspect it'll be tight between the first two with Redondo settling for the places and I'd expect Likeashadow to be more of a value option than Sunblock.
I'm out later this afternoon/evening at a function, so I'm early to press and as of 2.15pm, there were no odds available, but I'm happy with my selections and I'm hoping there's some E/W viability about them, especially Likeashadow.
In front of a packed and enthralled gathering at the Kensington Holiday Inn last night, a panel comprised of some of the shrewdest judges in the racing game assemble to share their wisdom. They were Matt Tombs (MT), Festival stats man extraordinaire, Lydia Hislop (LH), multi-racing broadcaster of the year and presenter/writer of different versions of Road to Cheltenham, Paul Kealy (PK), Racing Post's best tipster, and Jamie Benson (JB), compere and representing the evening's sponsor, tote.co.uk.
Here's what they all had to say...
Tuesday / Day 1
Supreme
PK: Really like Firefox, especially if Ballyburn goes Baring Bingham or in the without market if that one runs here. Worries about the Henderson yard form put me off Jeriko de Reponet. [Of course, there's still time for that form to change]. Daryl Jacob is sweet on Mistergif at a bigger price.
LH: Tullyhill has jumping questions to answer but think he'll end up being the Willie Mullins #1 - this is his only entry. Firefox has a good chance, and think Jeriko might drift to the point where he's a backable price.
MT: Might play an outsiders on drying ground, Favour And Fortune. But really like Firefox and, if Ballyburn goes to the longer novice race, think he's one of the bets of the week.
JB: Mistergif a live outsider. Plenty of chat for him.
Arkle
MT: Don't fancy Facile Vega, or JPR One. Ought to like Il Etait Temps but he always seems like he's about to mess things up! Taking a punt on Hunters Yarn who looks a fast horse, and he's more likely to get away with a mistake at Cheltenham, where the fences are nowadays relatively easy. He just has lots of speed.
LH: Can see Found A Fifty being handy without leading, and performing much better as a consequence.
PK: Feel like Found A Fifty might want further. Think Hunters Yarn is the best horse in the race, he's top class, and is the most likely winner.
Champion Hurdle
PK: Very much like Irish Point as a horse though doubt he's quick enough to trouble State Man.
MT: Didn't think State Man could beat Constitution Hill, but he is a really top class horse in his own right and clear of the remainder of this field.
Mares Hurdle
LH: Will Lossiemouth stay 2m4f? It's not guaranteed. Marie's Rock, always thereabouts at this level, is a viable each way alternative.
PK: Agree about Marie's Rock, and Gala Marceau is interesting at a price if you can forgive the run last time.
MT: Don't think Lossiemouth will stay. She's a lay.
Rest of Day 1
LH: The Goffer has the right profile in the Ultima. Aye Right could be an outsider to note. In the Boodles, Roaring Legend will be a big price after his last time loss but he stays well and is tough. Batman Girac a very obvious alternative. In the National Hunt Chase, Salvador Ziggy has a great profile but did have a mishap in the American Grand National last time; been freshened up since then which could be the key.
MT: Like The Goffer in the Ultima, a top of the market race these days. Also like Salvador Ziggy in NH Chase with the same caveats as LH.
PK: City Chief in the Ultima but worried about stable form; The Goffer is better weighted than when fourth last year. In the Boodles, Gary Moore's Through The Ages, a half brother to Yibir, has class and could be better than we've seen. Broadway Boy is a good bet in the NH Chase, or so I thought - apparently he goes Brown Advisory. Can still be backed non-runner no bet (NRNB) for this NH Chase.
JB: Bright Legend in the Boodles represents the right connections (won with Band Of Outlaws) and exits "that" Naas race that has found the last five Boodles winners.
LH: Ballyburn likely wins in whichever race he shows up in. Predators Gold could be interesting at a price e/w but is a bit of a 'wise guy' horse.
MT: Second string Willie Mullins horse has never won this race or the Supreme. Handstands may be best of the British, trainer Ben Pauling apparently thinks he's better than Willoughby Court (former winner of this race).
Brown Advisory
PK: Broadway Boy form is very good, best of the UK contingent. Had a terrible scope after the Warwick race in which he flopped so that effort is excusable. Fact To File does look smart but Davy Russell thinks he may not stay this trip.
LH: Stay Away Fay could outstay them. He's a very likeable horse. Fact To File looks a brilliant horse but not sure this test plays to his strengths. Like Monty's Star but not his price. Feel like UK is stronger in this division than in many recent years.
MT: Want Fact To File to win, because he could be a good horse for the sport. But think he's probably running in the wrong race (the shorter Turners being a better option). Broadway Boy e/w NRNB a reasonable bet.
Champion Chase
MT: Don't want to oppose El Fabiolo who is short in the betting but not the wrong price. On drier ground, Captain Guinness could be ridden for a place at double figure odds. But think El Fabiolo is an amazing horse who will win easily.
LH: There's nothing to take on El Fabiolo though Edwardstone is a viable e/w bet in spite of the odd jumping liberty. Jonbon is a bit more careful at his fences but on soft ground might not be a play.
PK: Apparently they figured out how to ride Edwardstone last time... as a ten-year-old having his 28th career start! Don't really like backing 10yo+ in the Grade 1's. El Fabiolo is "a tank" and will be extremely hard to beat.
Rest of Day 2
MT: In the last five years, the top two in the Cross Country Chase market have finished first and second, and the third horse hasn't been within 20 lengths of the winner!
PK: In Coral Cup, Built By Ballymore will charge up the hill if the going is soft. Trainer Martin Brassil has saddled the runner in the race in the last two years. Ballyadam is interesting off a layoff in the same race. Love Libberty Hunter in the Grand Annual.
LH: Also like Libberty Hunter in the Grand Annual, and can see Saint Roi running well for all that his hold up run style is probably not ideal for the race. Davy Russell believes soft ground is against Galvin in the Cross Country Chase.
LH: Ginny's Destiny may have been underestimated, think he'll run well. Gaelic Warrior is in danger of going the wrong way while Facile Vega has good Cheltenham form and enjoys soft ground. Want to see how the market evolves before having a bet.
MT: Connections might feel they have to ride Grey Dawning more aggressively. Gaelic Warrior might be a win only bet given his talent but also temperament. American Mike NRNB is reasonable too, though he may go to a different race.
PK: Ginny's Destiny might end up a value price on the day and could be a bet. Gaelic Warrior cannot go left-handed so against him. Iroko is a possible fly in the ointment: he's very talented but has been off a long time.
Ryanair
PK: Banbridge probably won't run/ surely can't win on soft. Can't have the 10yo Envoi Allen. Big field handicap form might be an angle which brings in Stage Star but Fugitif is big at 20/1 and also Protektorat at 14/1 is good value.
LH: Also likes Protektorat. Not sure how much pace there will be, so think Harry Cobden will be able to dictate on Stage Star. Can see the Fugitif argument, and Envoi Allen has proven Cheltenham form.
MT: Banbridge is the bet IF the ground dries out. At 25/1, Classic Getaway could be worth a try. Ran well early season and drop back in trip makes him interesting NRNB.
Stayers' Hurdle
PK: Teahupoo couldn't win last year so why bet him this? Crambo is progressive but he didn't beat Paisley Park and the old guard by much and PP is a bigger price. Flooring Porter would come into the reckoning if lining up here and, on very soft ground, Botox Has (40/1) would get a bet.
LH: Teahupoo is the young class and could easily win. Crambo up and coming, though Sire Du Berlais is perhaps not in the same form as he was when winning a year ago. He's 12 now. Quite strong on Teahupoo.
MT: Teahupoo is the one good horse in the line up. Not sure Crambo's form is at the same level. At big prices, might be worth a chance with Home By The Lee or even Good Time Jonny at 40/1: he's taking the same Pertemps to Stayers' route that Sire Du Berlais doubled up in last year.
Rest of Day 3
PK: White Rhino in the Pertemps and maybe Lord Snootie if getting a run. Farouk d'Alene would be interesting in that race, too, if getting a good claimer to take a few pounds off. In the Plate, Theatre Man is short enough but perfect for this.
LH: Letsbeclearaboutit in the Plate rates a bet. In the Mares' Novices' Hurdle, we're in for a treat between Brighterdaysahead and Jade de Grugy. The former looks the real deal. Dysart Enos will get weight from them as a non-winner over hurdles but Brighterdaysahead has very strong vibes in her corner.
MT: Not sold on Dysart Enos in the Mares' Nov Hurdle, don't the like softly softly approach ahead of a battle like this. In the Pertemps, Gabbys Cross has had a very smart prep and 12/1 is fair enough. Cool Survivor looks a great play in the Kim Muir.
PK: Need to know how the Nicky Henderson form is before contemplating Sir Gino at odds on. He's looked great but that yard form is a real concern. Ethical Diamond is a very interesting Willie Mullins entry at 25/1 in a place.
LH: Ruby has mentioned Ethical Diamond a few times. Agree about the NJH form before considering Sir Gino, whose own form is excellent. Of the Irish, Nurburgring is vaguely attractive. Majborough is a very good looking horse and one for the future, but he might find the Triumph too much at this stage.
MT: Impressed with Sir Gino but feel he's sure to drift unless yard form turns around very soon. What Paul Townend rides for Willie Mullins will shape the rest of the market. Willie apparently said early season, "My Triumph winner got beat first time out", when talking about Ethical Diamond.
Albert Bartlett
MT: Nine of the last ten winners were double figure prices, this race being a totally different challenge to the small field bimbles most have entertained during the regular season. Like Johnnywho, but main advice is take a couple or three darts at appealing odds, win only.
LH: No strong opinion on this race, though feel Reading Tommy Wrong has a reasonable profile.
PK: "Johnnywho is the only one I've backed in the race"
Gold Cup
LH: Big Galopin Des Champs fan. It was a superb effort last year and, ridden positively, think he's the winner again. Things can go wrong with Shishkin (start, lazy mid-race), ground may be against Bravemansgame, while Fastorslow is a good horse but too short in the betting. Feel that Gerri Colombe is too slow away from his fences. For the frame, try L'Homme Presse - ignore the obvious prep over the wrong trip last time - or Corach Rambler - we don't yet know how good he is.
MT: As a racing fan, I hope Galopin Des Champs wins: he's the star turn and is a perfectly square bet at 6/4 on the exchange. But siding with Corach Rambler at the prices.
PK: Agree with Galopin Des Champs chat. Don't think the ground suits Bravemansgame, Shishkin and Gerri Colombe are the wrong price (not positively) and Corach Rambler is a very good horse.
JB: Could The Real Whacker be the forgotten horse? Not impossible in the 'without GdC' market.
Rest of Day 4
LH: Mares Chase is all about whether Dinoblue stays the trip. Allegorie de Vassy looks vulnerable, so if Dinoblue doesn't stay perhaps the Cromwell pair will emerge: Limerick Lace and/or Brides Hill. In the County Hurdle, Iberico Lord or Zenta - both JP horses - look a strong double act.
MT: The Betfair Hurdle form is red hot, so Iberico Lord could go in again in the County. Dinoblue looks good in the Mares Chase and think she will stay. In the Hunter Chase, hard to understand why Premier Magic isn't favourite. He is a very decent bet at 7/1.
Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.
HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!
[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]
My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...
...but have still highlighted the following trio of qualifiers...
...1-year form...
...course 1-year form...
and course 5-year form...
In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...
3.00 Fontwell
6.30 Kempton
7.00 Kempton
Our three 'free' races and our four TS races have nothing better than Class 4 to offer us, mind you Class 4 is as 'good' as it gets this Wednesday and of the three Class 4 races above, only two have eight runners or more, from which one is a maiden hurdle, leaving me to focus upon the 6.30 Kempton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo, A/W handicap over a right-handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack as is often the norm here...
FORM : Jungle Mac, Macanudo and Nariko both won last time out, whilst LTO runner-up Media Shooter won two starts ago, Roman Emperor won four races back and Kinnigoli Kid won three back, but Mashadi and Brunel Nation are both maidens after five and three outings respectively, although Mashadi was the runner-up in each of his first four starts.
CLASS : All bar Jungle Mac, Macanudo and Brunel Nation ran at this level last time, but his trio all step up a class, which surely won't help the latter to get off the mark?
WHAT'S NEW? : It's handicap debut day for Jungle Mac, Nariko and Brunel Nation and a second handicap start for Kinnigoli Kid. It's also yard debut day for both Macanudo and Nariko, whilst both Mashadi and Brunel Nation run for the first time since being gelded. This will also be the first time that Mashadi, Kinnigoli Kid and Brunel Nation have raced on anything other than turf.
LAST RUN : Half of the field have raced in the last 11-26 days, but Brunel Nation, Nariko, Mashadi and Kinnigoli Kid now return from lengthy absences of 142, 161, 162 and 199 days respectively.
COURSE/DISTANCE : All bar Macanudo and the two maidens Mashadi and Brunel Nation have already won at least once over today's trip with both Media Shooter and Nariko having won over course and distance on their penultimate and last runs respectively and those course wins can be seen below on INSTANT EXPERT...
As is often the case, we get more information from the place data than we do from the win stats when we deal with inexperienced runners and it's good to see that those who have faced similar conditions in the past have ran well. Seven to nine runner contests over this left-handed six furlongs at Kempton have definitely favoured those drawn lowest, according to our draw analyser...
...which could be very good news for one of the two Instant Expert stand-outs, the in-form Media Shooter who has landed stall 1 here, but getting the best draw is only half of the story here at Kempton as best explained by the pace analyser from those 200+ races above, where there's a clear emphasis on being up with if not setting the pace...
...rendering this draw/pace heat map pretty unsurprising...
So,we know that Media Shooter has the plum #1 draw, but his best chances of winning are going to be by running prominently or better still, setting the tempo of the race. Fortunately for his chances here, this is how he raced when a runner-up over course and distance last time out...raced keenly, led 1f, chased leader, led again inside final 2f, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong..and when a course and distance winner two starts ago...chased leaders, switched left, effort and pushed along 2f out, led over 1f out, clear inside final furlong, ran on well.
This gave him a pace score of 3 in both races and here's how the whole field have approached their most recent contests...
...which suggests that Roman Emperor and Jungle Mac from stalls 2 and 7 might well dispute the early lead, but I suspect that having Roman Emperor just next door will drag Media Shooter along nicely.
Summary
Form, Instant Expert, draw and pace all point me towards Media Shooter here and I'm hoping that once the markets are formed that we can get 4/1 to 5/1 about him. I might be being a little optimistic there, of course, but he's the one that interests me most here. Next best might well be Jungle Mac who also comes here in good nick, having defied a 132-day absence to get off the mark recently. He hasn't been too badly treated with an opening mark of 79 and much will depend on his ability to get to the front early on from stall 7.
I like these two because not only are recent results good and they've got the 'right' pace profile for this contest, but they've also both raced in the last 17 days. Coming off a break is tough in sprint contests here at Kempton, but of the four returning from a layoff, the filly Nariko would be the one most likely to get involved. She cost 600,000 guineas at the breeze-up and was a course and distance winner on her last outing.
For many punters, eyes are fixed firmly on the 2024 Cheltenham Festival as we are now literally days away, writes Dave Renham. In this article I am going to examine the Festival handicaps looking back at the most recent 15 renewals, which take us back as far as 2009. There will be nine handicap races in 2024, four over fences and five over hurdles. These handicaps are bound to be difficult puzzles to solve, unsurprisingly when one considers the number of runners that contest them: over the study period, the average field size for all handicaps has been 22.5!
So, let’s get started.
Cheltenham Festival Handicaps: Market Factors
To begin with, I want to look at the betting market. Here are the Betfair SP returns for different sections of the market:
At this helicopter level, three things stand out for me. Firstly, the performance of favourites which, as a group, have made a profit. Secondly, the very poor performance of second and third favourites combined. And thirdly, horses priced 7th to 10th in the betting outperforming in win strike rate terms those ranked 4th to 6th. It seems that the value has been with these horses over the past 15 years. Interestingly, horses 7th to 10th in the market returned a profit in nine of the 15 Festival years.
Now, I have combined both hurdle and chase handicaps for the market stats. It is worth noting the favourite stats are quite different when we split into race type:
Handicap favourites in chases have fared well, winning better than one race in five and returning over 32p in the £. Added to that they have an excellent A/E index of 1.15. Handicap hurdle favourites have performed much less well. This is a good example of why we have to dig deeper into general stats, although we are dealing with smallish sample sizes here. Let me split the results up now starting by focusing on handicap chases.
Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chases
Course form
In terms of these races I want to look at whether a previous win at Cheltenham is a positive. To do that, I'll compare the A/E indices of previous Cheltenham winners with those who have not notched a success at the track. This includes all horses that have run at the track before:
There is quite a significant difference here with past Cheltenham winners the better value. They also have a better overall strike rate.
There is another group of runners that I have not shared yet, which is Cheltenham debutants: horses having their first ever run at the iconic venue. These runners have performed the poorest of all with an A/E index of just 0.63.
Country of Breeding
Next, I want to look to see if the country of breeding makes any difference. Essentially there are three main countries to look at – GB, Ireland, and France. They have provided 97% of the handicap chase runners. Be aware that the win strike rates are going to be low due to huge fields. Here are the splits:
Irish-bred runners have provided the most qualifiers and they have clearly the best record. The A/E indices for British- and French-bred runners are very low. It should be noted that this is not because handicap chases have been dominated by Irish trainers as we will see later. For the record, American-breds have won two races from 25 runners, but they have had no qualifying runners since 2017, German-breds are one from 18.
Days since last run
Is there a ‘sweet spot’ in terms of the time since the horse was last seen racing? In terms of value there does seem to be. Here are the A/E indices for different groupings. All groups contained at least 250 qualifiers meaning there was a decent sample and similar number of runners in each:
The first two columns are comfortably the highest implying that horses returning to the track within five weeks have offered the best value. These horses have combined to produce a modest, though not insignificant, 8p in the £ return on stakes. The three cohorts off the track for 36 days or more combined to lose 12p in the £. It seems in handicap chases a more recent run is favourable.
Position Last Time Out
How does last time out performance impact proceedings? Horses that won or finished second last time out (LTO) win far more often than those that finished third or worse. The strike rate comparison is 6.4% versus 3.9%. In terms of profit/loss, however, both groups made losses to Industry SP as you might expect; but LTO winners and runners-up lost 16p in the £ compared with 34p in the £ for horses that finished third or worse. When we look at Betfair SP results we see the following in terms of profit/loss to £1 level stakes:
Horses that finished first or second LTO have proved profitable to BSP. As a return on investment, this equates to 19p in the £ as opposed to losses of 17p in the £ for horses which finished third or worse LTO.
Of course, both groups have seen big priced winners pop up occasionally which one could argue has skewed both of their bottom lines. However, LTO winners/runners-up have combined to make a profit when the BSP price has been 12.0 or shorter, too. Under these price constraints they have returned just under 8 pence in the £. When we use this price limiter on horses that finished 3rd or worse LTO that group of runners produced losses of 18p in the £.
All the past evidence points to the fact that horses that finished first or second LTO should demand most of our attention when looking for handicap chase selections.
Trainers
Normally when I examine trainer data, we get some potential backing options. However, when we are dealing with competitive handicaps averaging 20+ runners, successful trainers are going to be difficult to find. Here is a list of all trainers who have had at least 25 handicap chase runners during the study period. The table is in alphabetical order:
Some big names have not managed a single winner in this timeframe including Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton. Following specific trainers in terms of backing to win looks a poor option based on the numbers we see in the table. Hence, I have looked at profit and losses to the Betfair Place market and one could argue a few trainers have the potential to be playable in that context. Here are the findings (biggest profit first):
Roughly one third of all Gordon Elliott’s Cheltenham Festival handicap chasers have finished in the first four over the past 15 years, which is quite incredible considering the fierce competition in these races. He looks a solid option backing to Betfair Place or each way with traditional bookies. Likewise, his runners should be considered if attacking the placepot.
Indeed, looking back at the bookmaker places paid last year, it's reasonable to assume six places at 1/5 odds (sometimes they paid down to 8th place). On that basis, and at Starting Price, the following returns could have been achieved - using BOG could only improve on these figures:
Naturally, there are some losing years, and 2024 may be another of those, but as part of a portfolio play, it may be worth keeping in mind.
Elsewhere, Messrs. Pipe, George, Twiston-Davies and Henderson should also not be written off in these races. Their runners would again be considerations for me, certainly as far as the placepot is concerned. One trainer that it seems sensible to steer right away from in Festival handicap chases is Paul Nicholls. Nicholls has long been one of the best trainers in the country but his record in these contests is extremely poor and offers dreadful value.
Finally on trainers, Venetia Williams' figures for both win and place have been skewed somewhat as her three winners were priced 72.43, 66.23 and 42 on the win market, 10.78, 11.88 and 7.2 on the place market. That said, the fact she's had three winners at huge prices means they're likely underestimated.
Run Style
My final port of call for the handicap chasers is run style. We have seen before in numerous articles I have written than run style can be a big factor. Below is a graph showing the A/E indices for the four individual run styles – led (L, 4 in the table below the chart), prominent (P, 3), mid division (MD, 2) and held up (HU, 1).
As we can see there is a huge bias to horses that lead early or race close to the pace. In fact, if you had been able to predict pre-race which horses would lead or race prominently you would have secured a whopping great profit on both groups to Industry SP, let alone BSP!
*in this table, the nulls are where - for much older results in our database - the run style has been impossible to score from the in-running comment. 4 is led, 3 prominent, 2 midfield, 1 held up.
There have been 12 horses that have led early and gone on to win a handicap chase at the festival since 2009 and of those, seven had led on their most recent start, while 10 had led in at least one of their last two starts. Also, nine of the 12 had ‘LTO four race pace totals’ of 12 or higher with three of them out-right top rated in terms of pace for their race. Hence, likely front runners should offer us value.
Bonus Handicap Chase Stats
I have a couple of additional handicap chase stats that I think are worth sharing.
Firstly, it looks best to ignore any horse that has failed to reach the first three in any of their last three runs. 288 handicap chasers have come to the Festival with this record and just eight have won (SR 2.8%) for BSP losses of £162.38 (ROI -56.4%).
And secondly, it is preferable to have run at Cheltenham LTO compared to many other courses. Below is a table looking at the performance of Festival handicap chasers since 2009 which had run LTO at any of Ascot, Cheltenham, Doncaster, Kempton, Leopardstown, Newbury and Sandown. These are the LTO courses that have supplied at least 100 runners:
There is a much higher strike rate for last time out Cheltenham runners but, more importantly, a small profit to BSP and a stand-out A/E index of 1.17 (next best LTO course 0.62).
*
Enough with the handicap chasers. It is time to delve into handicap hurdles now, a group in which I suspect it might be difficult to find strong positive ‘angles’ given the even bigger fields. However, I’ve been wrong many times in the past!
Cheltenham Festival Handicap Hurdles
Course form
I’ll start by once again looking at the past course form data in terms of A/E indices.
These figures are much closer than we saw with the handicap chase figures. There remains an edge to prior course winners but it is modest at best. Having said that, course winners have snuck into BSP profit, but the figures are skewed by some big priced successes.
Country of Breeding
Irish-breds were the value in handicap chases. What about over the smaller obstacles?
Irish-bred runners have again proved the best value, though not as dominant as over fences; still, they are certainly more playable than British-bred runners overall. IRE breds have also proved profitable to BSP, with nine winning years out of 15, albeit with a few big priced winners sprinkled into the mix. Such pedigrees clearly outperform their competition because if we compare Industry SP figures, Irish-breds lost only 8p in the £, but British- and French-breds lost a massive 43p and 32p in the £ respectively.
Days since last run
Will we see the same pattern that we did with handicap chasers where there seemed a value bias to horses which had run within the past five weeks (35 days):
The 50-to-77-day group here have provided the value from a win perspective. They have also provided comfortably the highest percentage of placed horses when comparing the five groups. Maybe freshening hurdlers up with this type of break is the optimum. My takeaway from this is that a medium-sized break from racing is much more a positive than a negative. Likewise, digging deeper into longer breaks, horses off the track for 91 days or more (13 weeks +) have won just three races from 181 runners with an A/E index of just 0.32.
Position Last Time Out
In handicap chases we saw that LTO winners and runners up looked the way to go taking all the data into consideration. In handicap hurdles it appears that we should primarily focus on LTO winners as the graph below illustrates when comparing A/E indices:
There is quite a significant difference in these values. Not only that, LTO winners have by far the better strike rate, both win and placed, and they have also made a blind profit to BSP. One fact to be aware of is that no LTO winner has won when returning from a layoff of 91 days or more (they are 0 from 39), correlating well with the data shared from the ‘days since last run’ section.
Trainers
Having seen the trainer data for handicap chases, I would expect a slew of low strike rates once more. The table below is in alphabetical order with 25 runs again the minimum requirement:
Taking the group of trainers as a whole these are better figures than the chase ones. Gordon Elliott has an excellent record considering the field sizes involved, as has Dan Skelton. Alan King and the Hobbs/White combo have very poor win records, but both have been profitable backing to place on Betfair. Nigel Twiston-Davies has a poor place record on top of his 0 from 40 win performance, and might be one to swerve unless you really like one of his.
Run Style
Finally a look at the run style splits:
These are far more even than the handicap chase figures. Front runners have an edge but even if your crystal ball was in tip top shape and you had backed all early leaders pre-race, you would have made a loss to SP. Generally, looking at data for all courses, chases tend to offer front runners a much bigger edge than they do in hurdles. The Cheltenham Festival stats correlate strongly with the general findings.
Bonus Handicap Hurdle Stats
Before winding this piece up there are two additional stats I’d like to share with you regarding handicap hurdles.
Firstly, mares are rare starters in these races but when they do run, they have won 7 races from 86 for a BSP profit of £99.06 (ROI +115.2%) – their A/E index is an impressive 1.71.
Secondly, a group of horses to avoid are those aged 9 or older who have combined for just 3 wins from 203 runs, with huge losses to boot.
Cheltenham Festival Handicaps: Main Takeaways
This has been quite a deep dive into handicap races at the Cheltenham Festival and I hope there are some solid profit pointers in its midst. Let me finish by focusing on what I think are the key stats from each race type.
Handicap Chase Takeaways
Handicap Hurdle Takeaways
*
The Cheltenham Festival handicaps are some of the most challenging wagering puzzles in the entire racing calendar. Finding winners is tough, and requires luck as well as good judgement. I hope that the snippets above will put you on the right side of the ledger come next Friday evening.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/saintroi_chelt2020.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2024-03-05 09:54:012024-03-06 10:43:01Cheltenham Festival Handicaps: An Overview
The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.
GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points
The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.
HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.
N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.
[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]
...where Esprit du Potier (The Potter's Spirit?) must be worth at least a quick look. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...
3.20 Newcastle
6.00 Southwell
6.30 Southwell
8.30 Southwell
The first of our trio of 'free' evening races is not only the joint highest-rated race in the UK for Tuesday, but also the most valuable, so let's have a look at who might land the £7851 top prize in the 6.00 Southwell, a 10-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard tapeta...
As I'm a bit later than usual going 'live ' today, I've already seen the market, which I don't usually do and my initial thoughts about the race were that the top four in the market are probably the ones to look hardest at ie Assessment, Tropez Power, Borgi and Leap Day in card order, but the analysis might tell me otherwise.
None of the ten managed to win last time out, but Assessment has won two of his last four, Borgi was an LTO runner-up and Leap Day has been runner-up in each of his last two. Tropez Power, Perseverants and Vecchio are winless in 8, 7 and 7 with Vecchio being a seven-race maiden, whilst despite not winning any of his last eight, Tropez Power has made the frame in seven of his last twelve starts, winning twice.
Borgi, fast-finishing Master of Combat, Perseverants, Vecchio and bottom weight Three Yorkshiremen all step up a class here, whilst Leap Day and Life On The Rocks are both up two classes today. Top weight Assessment makes a yard debut for Archie Watson after leaving Sir Michael Stoute, but might well need the run after a 285-day break, especially as all his rivals have raced in the last 15-45 days.
Vecchio, Life On The Rocks and Borgi have yet to win over this type of distance, but the latter has at least won here at Southwell, landing a 7f maiden on debut back in February 2022. Of his rivals, only Leap Day and Tropez Power have also scored here and both are course and distance winners with the latter having a 131 record from three attempts, making him just about the pick from an average looking set of numbers on Instant Expert...
I say average, rather than poor because all of the red above is from sample sizes of four races or less and if any were to win a race soon, they'd soon be at 20% or higher. Now, whilst the win stats above don't exactly point us towards any sort of decision or help whittle the field down, the same cannot be said about the following place data from the same parameters...
...because they're saying (to me, at least) that we focus on the four I initially mentioned plus Master of Combat, giving us runners in stalls 2, 3, 7, 8 and 10, which might make the draw stats very interesting. Let's check...
...the basic 'split the field into three' stats says that higher drawn runners don't make the frame often enough, but that mid-drawn runners fare best of all, which isn't good considering I've eliminated the runners in stalls 4, 5 and 6! But all is not lost, as the PRB3 data suggests that those drawn lowest still have a good chance of beating most of their rivals...
...whilst the pace data from those very races above...
...says we should avoid pace-setters and hold-up horses wherever possible and that doesn't bode too well for either Leap Day nor Tropez Power from my shortlist.
Summary
I had four runners (Assessment, Tropez Power, Borgi and Leap Day) in mind from the start and I added Master of Combat to the list during my analysis. Master of Combat has been in decent nick and could be an outside bet for the places, but (a) I think he's the least likely of the five to succeed and (b) I'd want more than 7/1 to go E/W on him, even if both Hills and Sky are offering four places.
Then, of my original four, I've doubts about Assessment's race sharpness after more than nine months off. He certainly has ability/promise, but odds of 13/8 to 2/1 don't scream value to me after such a long absence and he is drawn widest of all. Tropez Power is a former course and distance winner and drawn low, but is held-up for a run more often than not and those tactics are a negative here. Borgi has won here before, will be handily placed from a pace perspective from a low draw and the only issue with him is a step up in class, whilst Leap Day is not only up two classes, he's a confirmed front runner and will be the target they will all aim at.
None of my final four tick all the boxes, but after looking back at the market's best odds at 6.30pm...
...my tentative 1-2 would be Borgi to beat Tropez Power, who'll have to avoid traffic on a late run. Leap Day has a better draw than Assessment and might hold him off for the place money.
The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.
This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...
2.05 Southwell
2.17 Plumpton
4.30 Leopardstown
6.30 Wolverhampton
In all honesty, I wouldn't be having a bet in any of those, so for the purpose of the column, I'm going to focus upon the 3.52 Plumpton instead. It's the highest rated race in the UK on Monday and there's seems to be a good spread in terms of pace scores, as you see shortly. The race itself is a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed 2 miles and 74 yards (after a 99yd rail movement) on soft ground...
My initial thoughts here were that it should be a competitive contest between Mr Freedom, Classic Lord, Mr Mackay and Saligo Bay (in racecard order), with the remaining trio fighting not to be last home, but the analysis might tell/persuade me otherwise, so let's look at the details of a field that have all raced inside the last 73 days and have all (bar Classic Lord@ 18 days off) had at least five weeks rest.
Holly is our sole LTO winner, but Mr Freedom was a runner-up, as were Classic Lord and Mr Mackay. Classic Lord is two from his last four and Mr Freedom has only failed to finish in the first three once in his last nine outings (1113233U2) and all runners here have managed at least one win in their last seven efforts, apart from bottom weight and handicap debutant Highway One O Five, who is a six-race maiden who has yet to make the frame in three efforts over hurdles, being beaten by 17.5, 14.5 and 40.5 lengths and it's hard to imagine him winning here.
Holly, Classic Lord, Saligo Bay and Mardoof (who runs in a handicap for just the second time) are all up one class from C4 today, but all four have previously won at this kind of trip, as has top-weight Mr Freedom, who has also previously won here at Plumpton, landing a 2m1½f hurdle back in September 2022. Saligo Bay is the only other course winner, having landed a seller over course and distance two starts ago.
Instant Expert looks a bit bleak today...
...with a distinct lack of positivity, aside from our two course winners, of whom, Saligo Bay looks the pick on those meagre stats, especially with the top two on card both rated more than half a stone heavier than their last wins. I should, however, point out that not all of the defeats above have been bad runs and there have been quite a few placed efforts...
...with Mr Freedom's consistency catching the eye, along with Mardoof (trip), Mr Mackay (class/trip) and Saligo Bay (course and distance).
Today's free feature is, of course, pace and pace is as important over a two mile hurdle as it is over say a mile on the Flat, because race tactics and judgement of tempo are crucial in both. We have two ways into the pace data, firstly via our pace analyser, which for this race looks like this...
...which says that runners setting the pace/tempo of the race have a 26.32% strike rate, whilst those who don't lead only win 11.3% of the time, so leaders are 2.33 times more likely to win and by the same calculations are1 .69 times more likely to make the frame. So the first part of how we use pace is both interesting and useful, but how can we apply it to this race?
How will we know who's going to lead? Well, the truth is that we don't know, but we do know how horses have approached all the previous UK & Ireland races and by looking back at their most recent efforts, we can make an informed opinion (guess?), as to how they'll run again. We award 1 to 4 pts for every run, 1 for a hold-up horse, 2 = ran in mid-division, 3 = raced prominently and 4 = led. So if a horse has a recent average pace score of 1.50 or lower, then he'll look like a hold-up horse, but runners with an average approaching or hitting 4.0 will be expected to be the pacesetters, just like Classic Lord here...
Summary
Today's free feature is pace and we've been told that leaders do far better here than those who don't and our proven pace horse is Saligo Bay, who has made the frame in 2 from 5 on soft ground, 3 from 5 here at Plumpton and 8 from 11 over this type of trip. He's also our only course and distance winner and he'd be the one I'd go with here. Next best for me is probably Mr Freedom, who raced prominently last time out, has made the frame in 8 of his last 9, scoring really well on the place element of Instant Expert and is our other former course winner.
The opening show from Hills suggests we're not getting rich here..
...but hopefully we'll get a good run from the two I've highlighted.
Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users.
Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.
HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit columnand as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...
...and they have generated the following qualifiers for me to consider...
...30-day form...
...and 1-year form...
...whilst I can also call upon our selection of daily 'free' races...
1.35 Navan
1.55 Newbury
3.48 Navan
4.00 Kelso
4.15 Doncaster
...and with a top class contest on the 'free' list, I'm going to look at the 1.55 Newbury, also known as the Greatwood Gold Cup, a 9-runner, Class 1, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m4f on heavy ground...
Not only is joint bottom-weight Highstakesplayer our only LTO winner, he has also won his last three and five of his last six, finishing as runner-up in the defeat. I should however point out that those six runs were 2 x Class 5, then 3 x Class 4 before a Class 3 last time out, so he's no shoo-in here. Elsewhere all his rivals have won at least once in their last seven outings (Bill Baxter & Gemirande twice, Jetoile Grandeur Dame & Heltenham 3 times) with Gustavian's six consecutive defeats the coldest run of form on show.
So we know that in-form Highstakesplayer is up two classes here and so is Sir Psycho, whilst out of form Gustavian steps up one class, as does Heltenham who was a runner-up just a week ago. On reflection, I suppose Jetoile's recent 4th place in a Cheltenham Class 1 is the best recent run of this field, especially as he won the Grade 2 Old Roan at Aintree on his penultimate start.
All bar Gemirande have raced in the last 5 weeks, but he hasn't been seen for over ten months now and although he was 2nd past the post (placed 3rd after the stewards got involved) in a Cheltenham Grade 2 last time out, it's not inconceivable that he might need the run here, but like all bar Sir Psycho, he has already won over this trip. Only Kandoo Kid and Heltenham have won here at Newbury before (Jetoile & Gemirande are the only others to have raced here, mind) and both have won over course and distance...
Sadly, we don't glean a great deal from the win stats on Instant Expert above, but what I did spot was that Heltenham, Gemirande, Grandeur D'ame, Sir Psycho and Kandoo kid are 7 to 11lbs higher than their last winning marks, despite not coming here in great form, so that has to be a worry for their chances. The win stats did show that plenty of these will 'get' the trip readily enough but that the field lacks experience at going, class and course.
On the other hand, the place stats suggest that a few of these should relish the conditions with Jetoile, Gemirande and Heltenham showing green in four of the five categories. If the field approaches this race as they have done in their last few outings, then those three I mentioned from Instant Expert might not see too much of each other...
...with Gemirande a proven front-runner and Heltenham tending to bide his time. Jetoile normally runs in mid-division, whilst Gemirande's biggest challenge for an early lead is likely to come from Sir Psycho or Grandeur D'ame. The stats for similar past races would tend to suggest that Heltenham will be at a disadvantage if he's held up for a third race in a row...
...and that he should revert to racing further forward as he did three and four races back, when making the frame on both occasions, winning once.
Summary
There's no standout performer here, aside from Highstakesplayer's recent set of results, but that was all at a lower level than this. I suspect confidence will be high, though and that he'll probably still manage to beat most of this field. I've not got him marked as a winner, but if the odds are reasonable enough, he'd be an E/W option, as would Heltenham who is a proven placer at the trip as long as he doesn't become detached at the rear and that's the gamble with him, I suppose. he's low in the weights and has won over course and distance and I fancy him to make a good fist of this.
My preference, however, is Jetoile, who won back to back Chepstow contests last year before landing the grade 2 Old Roan at Aintree in October. He was a decent fourth after a three month break last time out, he's 3 from 3 over 2m4f and his form on soft/heavy ground reads 12321, so let's check the market at 5.15pm Friday...
Highstakesplayer is too short to back E/W for me, but I'd be happy to take 8/1 E/W about Heltenham. As for Jetoile, I think he has what it takes to win here, but 10/1 is very good when IO was expecting around 7's, so whilst I'm backing him, I might well hedge my bets.
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