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Racing Insights, Friday 23/02/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded the following qualifiers and your own chosen parameters might give even more joy...

This free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.10 Lingfield
  • 2.33 Exeter
  • 3.52 Warwick
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton
  • 7.15 Dundalk

...and with a pair of H4C qualifiers taking each other on in difficult conditions, let's head for the 4.10 Exeter, an 11-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m7f on heavy ground...

Top-weight Bells of Peterboro, Cedar Row, Striking A Pose and House of Stories all won last time out, but Farmer's Gamble, Decorated, Raddon Top and bottom weight Longshanks all failed to finish. That last pair of Raddon Top and Longshanks are the only ones without a win in their last five outings or more, having tasted defeat in seven and nine on the bounce respectively.

Most of these ran at Class 4 last time out, bit Farmer's Gamble and Rock Danse both drop down a class here and the latter makes just a second handicap start today, as does Cedar Row, whilst it's handicap debut day for House of Stories. We've some first-time equipment on show today for Decorated (cheekpieces), Raddon Top (blinkers) and Lanspark (visor) and it's also Decorated's first run since recent wind surgery and it'll be Farmer's Gamble's second time in cheekpieces.

Famer's Gamble hasn't raced for three months and Decorated for two months, but the returner here is Cedar Row who has been off the track for 17 days short of a year since landing a soft-ground 2m5f hurdle at Warwick on handicap debut. Aside from this trio, the remainder of the field have all raced in the last 20 to 32 days.

Raddon top won this race two years ago and is one of two former course and distance winners alongside Farmer's Gamble who scored here four starts ago at the start of February 2023. Striking A Pose(2m3f hurdle & chase), Chloe's Court (2m5½f/2m6f hurdles) and Longshanks (2m3f chase) have all won on this track, whilst Bells of Peterboro, Chloe's Court and Lanspark have all prevailed over this type of trip in the past...

Those who have managed to stay out of the red are relatively inexperienced under these conditions, whilst those with more races under their belts haven't really managed to win anywhere near as often as they'd have liked. Bells Of Peterboro is 0 from 8 at the trip, Raddon Top has struggled at class/trip and Lanspark has only won one of nine at Class 4.

If the field's recent efforts are anything to go by, we might have a three-way battle for the early lead...

...with Farmer's Gamble the likely back marker, but it is those that set the pace that tend to do best here...

...although it's a fairly small sample size.

Summary

The 7.15pm market for this pretty open race looks like this...

...and of the two favourites, I'd prefer Cedar Row based on the evidence from Instant Expert, even if Bells did win last time out and will race further forward. That said, I'm not rushing to back either at those prices. In fact I'd be more interested in small E/W plays on Chloe's Court and Striking A Pose. The latter won here last time out and has made the frame in three of his last five and five of his last eight, whilst the former was a runner-up here over course and distance and has finished 1142 in her last four outings.

Racing Insights, Thursday 22/02/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.23 Thurles
  • 3.35 Huntingdon
  • 4.05 Huntingdon
  • 4.53 Thurles

As most of you already know, I'm not a big fan of Irish racing (each to their own and all that) and with the lack of 'free' UK card available to me at the time of posting (the free list will repopulate later, don't worry), I've got carte blanche to pick any race to cover and the day's highest rated race in the UK is the 6.00 Newcastle, where I suspect Cover Up might be a warm favourite to land this 8-runner (poss E/W bets?), Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard tapeta...

Cover Up won last time out and is three from his last five and comes here on a hat-trick, whilst Moon Flight also won last time out and has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last four. Clearpoint made the frame on his last outing and is three from five and only top-weight Exalted Angel is without a win in seven or more, having lost 25 on the bounce in just over three years.

Exalted Angel is the only one of the eight not moving in class today as Intervention, Clearpoint (on yard debut for Simon Hodgson) and Lord Riddiford (licence rather than trainer change for this one) all drop down from Class 2, whilst hat-trick seeking Cover Up, Jump The Gun and fast-finishing pair Moon Flight & Pockley all step up from Class 4.

All eight have raced in the last 5 (Intervention) to 33 (Clearpoint/Lord Riddiford) days, so no layoffs to over come and Clearpoint, Cover Up (LTO), Moon Flight (also LTO) and Pockley have all won over this course and distance. Jump the Gun has won here over 6f (last November) and both Exalted Angel and Lord Riddiford have 5f Tapeta wins under their belts (Southwell and Wolverhampton respectively), but Intervention has won at neither track nor trip; he does however have 7 wins on tapeta over 6f/7f from 26 attempts at a very healthy 26.92% strike rate...

Clearpoint and Cover Up are the Instant Expert eyecatchers with lines of green, even if they are both 5lbs higher than their last A/W winning marks. Exalted Angel and Lord Riddiford have gone a long time since they last won an A/W contest, hence the latter's 10lb drop in ratings from his last win and whilst Pockley has won four times on this track, he prefers it slower than standard. If we then look at the place form from those races above...

...we could add the names of Intervention and Moon Flight to our list Instant Expert possibles alongside Cover Up and Clearpoint, giving us runners in stalls 1,2, 6 and 7 and somewhat surprisingly for a straight 5f sprint, there is a bit of a draw bias, favouring Intervention and Clearpoint here...

Now the draw stats from those 100+ races might have surprised a few of you, but I'm pretty sure the pace data from those races won't raise many eyebrows...

...which is pretty much as you'd expect, especially from a win perspective, which shows more bias than the place stats do, as leaders win 1.76 times more often than hold-up horses, but actually only place 1.3 times more. And if the isolated stats for the draw and the pace above are combined, the resulting heat map will probably not surprise you either...

...with the red box being the preferred combinations. We know how the field will line up ie

...so if we can place them onto the heat map, we can hopefully make a reasoned assumption to the outcome. Thankfully we also log how each horse has approached past races and their recent efforts look like this...

...with long-time loser Exalted Angel and three of my four from Instant Expert looking like the ones who'll be setting the pace and in terms of that pace/draw heat map...

Summary

Cover Up and Moon Flight both won last time out, but Clearpoint is also in good nick and he scored well on Instant Expert, as did hat-trick seeking Cover Up, of course, whilst Moon Flight and Intervention had good place stats. Of these four, Intervention and Clearpoint seemed to be more favoured by the draw, whilst the pace data was also against Moon Flight.

The pace/draw heat backed that up leaving me with three to choose from (in draw order) Cover Up, Intervention and Clearpoint. It would be easy/lazy to just suggest Cover Up wins again here, based on form, but let's not forget that he's up in class and also up 5lbs for just a half length win.

He probably should win here, but the 5.40pm odds ranging from Evens to 13/8 don't really excite me, but I am interested in the other pair. Clearpoint and Intervention can be backed at 7/1 and 9/1 respectively and whilst they might not beat the fav, I think they're both decent E/W alternatives and you never know... 😉

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 21/02/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.45 Punchestown
  • 3.05 Doncaster
  • 3.15 Punchestown
  • 5.30 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have yielded just the following pair of qualifiers on 30-day trainer form...

And with the Donny race from the race being a better grade than the three A/W options above, we're off to Town Moor for the 3.05 Doncaster, an 8-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed three miles on good to soft ground, that is already soft in places with more rain expected...

My immediate thoughts were that this might well be a three-horse race between (in card order) Big Blue Moon, Betterforeveryone and Event of Sivola (not the usual de Sivola). It's worth noting that Big Blue Moon hasn't raced for 11 months and is up in class here, as are Event of Sivola and bottom-weight Roxboro Road, whilst Almazhar Garde drops down a level, having failed to place last out.

In fact, Almazhar Garde hasn't won a race since mid-April 2021 and is on a run of 19 consecutive defeats. All bar Roxboro Road (no win in 11 since April Fools Day 2021) of his rivals have, however, won at least one of their last seven efforts with Horacio Apples winning three of seven and our sole LTO winner Event of Sivola having two wins and a runner-up finish from his last three. Roxboro Road is also one of just two (Big Blue Moon being the other) yet to win over this trip, although the field's 5-year stats over fences aren't great...

...especially when you bear in mind that Roxboro Road's win are all from three years ago or more and Big Blue Moon has yet to tackle a fence! I suppose the fact that he's in my initial top-3 despite not having been chasing yet and he hasn't raced for eleven months sums up the lack of quality here! The place stats do at least give us more to work with...

...and they suggest that Betterforeveryone should relish conditions here, having made the frame in two from three over fences. He fell at the first fence here on the time he failed to place, so we've no idea how he would have ran, but he has tended to run in mid-division like many of this field with only Event of Sivola showing any propensity to get on with things...

...and it looks like Event of Sivola's running style might just pay dividends here for a third win in four...

Summary

I started with Big Blue Moon, Betterforeveryone and Event of Sivola as my three 'most likelies' and whilst not all three have presented an outstanding or compelling case for themselves, I stand by the call, because none of the rivals have made me change my mind. Of the three, Event of Sivola would be the one I'd pick. He comes here in the best form (121), he gets weight from the other two, he's the only one of the three to have won at this grade and could well be given a soft lead to defend over a course and distance that has rewarded front runners.

Of the other pair, I'd take Betterforeveryone over Big Blue Moon, as the former scored better on Instant Expert and will race further forward, whilst the latter makes a chase debut after an 11-month break and has never gone beyond 2m4f. Big Blue Moon is probably the one of the trio that looks most vulnerable/susceptible to one from the pack beating him and the one lost likely to do so looks like Horatio Apple's, as the other four runners look out of their depth.

Unsurprisingly, the bookies have also split the field in two with the first-to show Bet365 offering these odds at 4.30pm Tuesday...

Racing Insights, Tuesday 20/02/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...and whilst none are perfect, the 6.30 Newcastle has three representatives above and might be interesting. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.40 Taunton
  • 5.30 Newcastle
  • 7.30 Newcastle

I do normally try to marry up the daily feature with the daily 'free' races and I could do that with Wild Max running in the 3.40 Taunton, which is a decent enough Class 3 contest, but I've got more data available for the 6.30 Newcastle, which is not only another Class 3 handicap, but also features Azure Angel, Solray and The Caltonian from The Shortlist. The race itself in a very competitive-looking, 8-runner, 4yo+ handicap sprint over a straight 6f on standard tapeta...

...with no less than three LTO winners in the shape of Azure Angel and Solray from TS along with Secret Guest.

FORM : Azure Angel is three from four, Secret Guest two from six, The Caltonian three from five and Solway is two from three. Zaman Jemil won seven races ago and Mighty Power won two starts back and was placed on his last run. Top-weight Lethal Nymph and Mondammej are winless in eight and thirty-two races respectively!

CLASS : Only The Caltonian ran at Class 3 last time around with Azure Angel, Secret Guest, Solray and Mighty Power all up from Class 4, whilst Lethal Nymph, Zeman Jemil and Mondammej all drop down from Class 2.

LAST RUN : Solray had had a ten-week rest, but that is eclipsed by the 137-day and 226-day absences of the top two in the market, Lethal Nymph and sole filly Azure Angel, with the other five rivals all having raced in the last 10-20 days

MISCELLANEOUS : This will be yard debut day for both Lethal Nymph and Zeman Jemil, whilst both Mondammej and Solray are denoted as fast finishers.

COURSE/DISTANCE : All bar Lethal Nymph and Azure Angel are former course and distance winners, but the former has won over this trip four times (Ascot x 2, Doncaster & Wolverhampton) whilst the latter has won here over 7f and over this trip at both Chelmsford and Kempton.

INSTANT EXPERT shows all recent relevant form...

I've included Class 4 form with the field being 0 from 8 at Class 3 and Mondammej's overall lack of wins stands out like a sore thumb here. Mighty Power's best for has been at Class 5, so this looks a big ask. Zaman Jemil's numbers are a little skewed by his C&D win here in August 2022 and he's only won one of ten since and if I lean on the place data...

...I'm probably mainly interested in Azure Angel, Secret Guest, The Caltonian and Solray as the half of the field I'd want to be with, so lets see if the pace and firstly the draw stats persuade me otherwise.

The 'chosen' quartet will emerge from stalls 1, 6, 7 and 8, so I'm hoping for little/no draw bias (I'm not really expecting one) or data suggesting higher drawn runners fare best and whilst i'm pleased to see the actual numbers, they are a bit of a surprise for me...

...but good news for Azure Angel, The Caltonian and Secret Guest, but let's not forget that this is a straight six, where pace generally wins the race...

...which based on recent efforts gives Azure Angel the advantage from my quartet, but also reignites the possibility of a decent run from Lethal Nymph...

...although the pace/draw combination would suggest the highest drawn could still prevail...

Summary

The quartet of Azure Angel, Secret Guest, The Caltonian and Solray are definitely the ones I'd want to pick from and it causes a bit of a quandary. There's every chance that Solray deserves to be the 6.30pm favourite at odds of 2/1 to 5/2 especially after his course and distance success ten weeks ago, but he's up in class and up 7lbs and the pace/draw data is against him. He could quite easily win this, but the price represents little/no value to me.

The pace/draw data does favour the filly Azure Angel, though and 3/1 does suit me better than 2/1, of course. The issue here is, of course, the lengthy break but she's 3 from 3 on the A/W and Aidan Keeley's 3lb claim effectively keeps her on the same mark as her LTO win at Chelmsford where she won despite being shoved into the running rail. She was game that day and might have more to come, much will depend on how race ready she is.

Secret Guest and The Caltonian will hopefully get towed into the race by Zeman Jemil and Azure Angel and they look like being fairly well matched in the hunt for third place.

Overall a tight looking contest and I expect there'll be little between Solray and Azure Angel and it might well boil down to whether it's pace/draw stats or a layoff that gets overcome. Little in it, but I've a (very) marginal preference for the filly Azure Angel.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 19/02/24

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The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 2.30 Carlisle
  • 3.47 Lingfield
  • 4.35 Carlisle
  • 8.00 Wolverhampton

The highest-rated of those is the 4.35 Carlisle, a 5 (was 6) -runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m3½f (after 77yds rail movement) on heavy ground...

FINGAL'S HILL won a Class 2 handicap here on Bonfire Day over 2m4½f last year for a fourth win on the bounce but hasn't quite hit the same heights in to starts since, but is down in class and weight here

BOOSTER BOB had a win and a place from his two bumper outings in Feb/April last year before a six-month break. He returned to action to October to start his hurdling career and is three from three so far in this sphere, all over 2m including a Listed success at Sandown last time out. Now down two classes for a handicap debut, is probably the one to beat.

RAFFERTY'S RETURN won three of his first seven over hurdles with a run of form reading 1214912 from early Jan '22 to mid-Jan '23, but has made the frame just once in seven runs since and was last home of four at Ayr, beaten by 26 lengths, last time out. He's now do in class and trip and wears both tongue tie and cheekpieces here for the first time, but others look more persuasive on form.

BETTER GETALONG has to be in the twilight of his career now at the age of 13, but this former course and distance winner comes here off the back of a win at Ayr last time out defying a 7-month absence to do so. A 5lb rise makes this tougher, but he's nothing if not game.

GLEN CANNEL makes just a second handicap appearance some 331 days after his first/last one when he was pulled up three out at Newbury having ran poorly if truth be told. He's very lightly raced with just five previous starts under his belt, but was placed in his sole bumper and finished 113 in his first three over hurdles prior to his disappointing handicap debut.

Instant Expert doesn't have a great deal of relevant recent form/data to work with, but enough to put another red mark against the name of Rafferty's Return...

Today's  feature is, of course, the PACE tab and clicking it gives us the following information...

...suggesting that Rafferty's Return will aim to set the pace here and that probably represents his best chance of getting involved here, if previous similar races are anything to go by...

Summary

Pace is the daily feature and can be ignored at your peril, but the pace stats here suggest that Booster Bob might well suffer, but on a reasonable opening handicap mark of 124, I'd expect him to take his hurdling record to 4 from 4 especially as he drops down two classes from winning a Listed event last time out. He is, of course, up in trip, but is 2 from 2 on heavy ground and whilst I think the bookies best price of 4/6 (7pm Sunday) is a little tight, he's the one I expect to win here, although I had him down as even money.

Instant Expert highlighted Fingal's Hill as a contender and both myself and the bookies agree and he has been installed as 5/1 second favourite, which is probably about right, but sadly too short for an E/W bet. If I was to have a couple of pennies on an E/W bet, I think 12/1 rank outsider Better Getalong is interesting. He's an LTO & CD winner and despite being 13 yrs old now, could possibly spring a surprise or two.

Racing Insights, Saturday 17/02/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

30-day form...

1-year form...

course 1-year form...

course 5-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 3.15 Haydock
  • 3.27 Gowran Park
  • 3.57 Newcastle
  • 6.00 Newcastle
  • 7.15 Newcastle

Both Highland Hunter & Trais Fluors from the TJC report are set to run in races from our 'free' list, but the former's race is by far the higher-rated, so I'm staying fairly close (approx 30 miles SW from home) for the 3.15 Haydock, an 11-runner, Class 1, 5yo+ handicap chase over what might be a slog of almost 3m5f (after rail movements) on heavy ground...

It's a pretty open-looking contest here with all eleven having won at least one of their last six outings with Snipe winning twice, Iwilldoit & My Silver Lining scoring three times and Famous Bridge landing four of six, but only My Silver Lining was a winner last time out. Other placers, Iron Bridge, Yeah Man and Snipe finished as runners-up on their last runs.

Most of these ran at Class 1 on their last outing, but top weight Iwilldoit, featured runner and first-time cheekpiece-wearer Highland Hunter and Full Back all step up from Class 2, whilst bottom weight Snipe is up two classes after finishing second at Doncaster three weeks ago. That three week rest is the shortest of any of the field, but the longest lay-off is with Yeah Man (who also wears cheekpieces for the first time today) and he's only been off for eight weeks, so no fitness excuses.

Only Iwilldoit and Highland Hunter have won over a similar trip to this one, but we've three former course winners in the shape of Iron Bridge (3m2f chase), Fontaine Collonges (3m1½f chase) and Famous Bridge (2 x 3m1½f chase) as shown below on Instant Expert...

...where most of the top half of the field look like they'll have suitable conditions to suit their style. In fairness, we're not really playing with a large bank of data, but going & distance form might well be key here.  We also don't have much to go on regarding pace, but Haydock has tended to suit those setting the tempo in staying chases on difficult ground...

...which could be good news for Highland Hunter, if we ignore his last outing over an unsuitably short 2m6f at Lingfield last time out...

I suspect he'll attempt to make all here with My Silver Lining leading the chasing pack.

Summary

Most of these come here in decent nick and both Iwilldoit & My Silver Lining have won three times in their last six outings, whilst Famous Bridge had landed four of six, but only My Silver Lining was a winner last time out.

Five of the top six on the card seemed to have the best figures on Instant Expert ie Iwilldoit, Chambard, Highland Hunter, Fontaine Collonges and Famous Bridge, whilst the pace profile highlighted Highland Hunter and My Silver Lining.

If we look at these names, we see two mentions for Iwilldoit, Highland Hunter and Famous Bridge and three for My Silver Lining and I think I want to focus on this quartet for a possible bet.

I said at the top of the piece that this looked an open affair and the bookies seem to share that view with the 4.40pm market looking like this...

Of those, I like My Silver Lining best. She's in tremendous form right now and should be further ahead of any potential trouble in the field when horses start to tire. I suspect she'll let Highland Hunter lead the way before picking him off later on. That said, 18/1 looks a really big price about the potential pace-maker and with all major firms paying at least four places, Highland Hunter would be my E/W pick and I expect Iwilldoit and Famous Bridge to go well too and both might well end up in E/W territory if money comes for other runners. I'll need to check the market closer to the off.

 

 

Racing Insights, Friday 16/02/24

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have managed to produce a trio of tapeta tempters...

...and as always our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.10 Fakenham
  • 4.57 Dundalk
  • 5.02 Kelso
  • 6.30 Dundalk
  • 6.45 Wolverhampton

...and it makes perfect sense to marry up the H4C report with the 'free' race list and have a look at one of the day's highest rated and second most valuable races, as Civil Law tackles nine rivals in the 6.45 Wolverhampton, a Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta...

None of these managed to win last time out, but both featured horse Civil Law and Wadacre Gomez were runners-up after winning their penultimate outing and the latter has now won two of his last four, as has the lightly-raced Polling Day with only Al Rufaa from the rest of the field with a win inside their recent form line. I wouldn't be surprised if this quartet produced the winner.

Sadly for Wadacre Gomez, he's up a level here, as is Kojin despite seven defeats on the bounce where he hasn't beaten many runners home. Aikhal, Pleasant Man, Forca Timao and Southern Voyage all move the opposite direction taking a drop down from Class 2, where only Forca Timao made the frame.

Today will be the just second time in a handicap for both Polling Day and Duc de Morny, who will debut in cheekpieces today in a field short on course/distance form. Bottom weight Kojin won over this trip at Clonmel last September and Al Rufaa won here at Wolverhampton over 1f shorter (1m½f) three starts ago but is a class and 6lbs higher here. Only featured runner Civil Law has won over course and distance finishing 12117412 in his eight attempts to go with his 1 from 1 record here over 1m½f and he's understandably the standout from Instant Expert...

Kojin has no recent A/W form and was well beaten on his sole start at Dundalk back in October 2021. The above is fairly self-explanatory, of course with many of these having little relevant data and even the 5yr form doesn't give us much more to work with...

...although it does show Polling Day's entire career and further boost's Civil Law's numbers, whilst recent place form...

...further reiterates the strength of both Civil Law and Washacre Gomez who arrive here in good form, although they'll find themselves starting a fair way apart in stalls 1 and 9 of 10, although the draw hasn't seemed to have been a massive influence in the 220+ similar races here since 2018...

...which keeps both in the hunt, if nothing else. The pace stats for those races above suggests that hold-up horses have struggled to win/place, but anything further forward than a hold-up position has been fruitful...

...and if recent performances are anything to go by, Wadacre Gomez might well be able to control this race from the front...

...and from his high draw, setting the pace would appear to be his best chance of winning this...

Summary

Looks like a toss-up between Wadacre Gomez and Civil Law, based on form and the data above with the only other recent winner Al Rufaa the best of the rest. I'm running a little late this evening, so didn't see the market until just now (6.55pm) and this hasn't really surprised me...

...although I think I prefer Wadacre Gomez to win this one. He's down a pound after a 1.5 length defeat over course and distance, whilst Civil Law is up 2lbs from his last run on Boxing Day. He's also lost his 3lb claimer, but jockey Danny Tudhope could make some of that back.

Racing Insights, Thursday 15/02/24

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 2.20 Clonmel
  • 2.55 Clonmel
  • 3.47 Southwell
  • 4.00 Newcastle
  • 4.05 Clonmel

...from which I think I'll take a look at the 3.47 Southwell, 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard tapeta...

Bottom weight Hiatus was a winner last time out and Northern Spirit made the frame for the ninth time in his last eleven starts (inc 3 wins). Sluzewiec has yet to win any of five UK outings, but did win six starts ago in France, whilst Gulliver, Grenham Bay and Seven Brothers have failed to win any of their last 8, 12 and 11 races respectively.

Seven Brothers' bid to break his cold spell might not be helped by not having had a run for almost eight months, whilst Northern Spirit also returns from 20 weeks off the track. The rest of the field have all raced in the last month with She's Centimental turned back out just five days after her last run.

Evocative Spark and Sluzewiec are the only two in this field yet to win over this trip, whilst previous Southwell winners Gulliver, Billyjoh, She's Centimental and Hiatus are all course and distance winners and these are highlighted on Instant Expert...

...where Evocative Spark's numbers over the last couple of years haven't been great under today's conditions in general. Gulliver, Grenham Bay and Hiatus haven't won many on standard going and the latter two have struggled in this grade, as has She's Centimental, but she interests me with her four wins over today's trip. Sadly she has only made the frame once in her seven defeats at this trip and it is Northern Spirit who catches the eye on the place data...

...although he is shown as being some 11lbs higher than his last A/W win, but he is only 8lbs higher than his last turf win and has finished third in each of his last two outings, both off today's mark. He's drawn pretty much slap bang in the middle of the stalls in box 5 for a contest where it has been more favourable to be drawn in stall 7 or lower over the last couple of years...

Those same races have also suited horses keen to get on with things...

...making this draw/pace heat map less than surprising...

...where runners drawn mid to high with a hold up running style have really struggled. We know how this field have approached their last four outings...

...which sadly shows a distinct lack of early pace, suggesting that we might well get a falsely run race.

Summary

Sadly, I haven't picked a great race to analyse, which is the risk I take by doing the piece on a 'live' basis. My thoughts here are that Northern Spirit should be the best runner in the race, but has tended to find one or two a bit too good for him, especially off his current career high mark. He hasn't raced for over 20 weeks and all things considered, 7/2 is a little on the short side. Billyjoh is even shorter as the 13/8 favourite and that looks a bit tight based on his last run, so he's not for me.

That then does leave us with eight runners priced at 8/1 or bigger and there could well be some E/W action and whilst I'm probably going to sit this one out, the ones that I'd be interested would probably be She's Centimental and LTO course and distance winner Hiatus, who both opened up at 8/1 with bet365.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 14/02/23

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Apologies for the lack of RI service over the last couple of days, I had to take some time way to deal with a family issue, but I'm back now and Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.50 Fontwell
  • 4.10 Dundalk
  • 6.30 Kempton
  • 7.30 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

14-day form...

course 1-year form...

...and with Simon Crisford's Inverlochy above also running in one of our free races, I really should take a look at the 6.30 Kempton, a 7-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ fillies' A/W handicap over a right handed mile on standard to slow polytrack...

Not only is our featured runner Inverlochy the only LTO winner, she comes here on a hat-trick and and has four wins and a half-length defeat as a runner-up from her last five runs, making her the clear form pick. Dayzee made the frame last time around and has three wins and three places from her last seven, whilst Crystal Casque and Incrimination are both two from seven. Lady Lavinia won five races ago, but Measured Moments and Smiling Sunflower are winless in seven and eleven respectively, although the former has been a runner-up in four of those seven losses.

Lots of class movement today, as only Incrimination ran at Class 4 last time out. Dayzee drops two classes whilst Crystal Casque and Measured Moments are both down one level with Inverlochy, Lady Lavinia and Smiling Sunflower all up one class. The latter is turned back out quickest too, just five days after her last run, but Lady Lavinia has had nine weeks rest. Measured Moments has been off for 53 days, but the remainder have all raced in the last 10 to 25 days.

Dayzee and Inverlochy have both won over a mile on other tracks whilst Lady Lavinia and Smiling Sunflower have both scored here over 7f at Kempton before with Crystal Casque our sole course and distance winner, having done so just over a year ago off 9lbs lower than today, which brings us nicely to Instant Expert, our overview of past performances under similar conditions...

...where Crystal Casque looks like she might struggle to win, based on those win percentages above. Dayzee seems to have proven herself at Class 4 and Inverlochy is 3 from 5 at the trip whilst Lady Lavinia's Class 4 win here over 7f in January '23 has made her figures look good. If we then look at the place stats from the same races...

...you can make more of a case for Crystal Casque to run well in defeat, but I'd be wanting to discard the last two on the card, Measure Moments and Smiling Sunflower. They're drawn almost at polar ends of the stalls and our draw analyser suggests that whilst there's not a huge bias from a win perspective, those drawn lower do tend to make the frame most often...

However, the pace is a different matter, as there's a distinct bias here that says the further forward a horse runs, the greater the chance of winning or making the frame...

Quite a few have been keen to get on with things of late, none more so than our featured runner Inverlochy...

Her ungraded run three starts ago should also be scored a 4, as the race report reads...led, ridden over 1f out, headed towards finish... so with a 4-race average pace score of 3.50, I'd expect her to set the pace.

Summary

No surprises to read that I think the one to beat is our featured runner, Inverlochy. Her yard do well here at Kempton, she's the form horse, she scored well on Instant Expert, is drawn halfway along the stall and is likely to lead early doors. All of which points to another big run and her current (3.50pm) 9/4 price with Hills (only book open) seems pretty fair, I though she might have been a bit shorter.

Dayzee might well be the one to chase her home; she's also in decent nick, she's down two classes after finishing third over 1m2f, she's proven at class and trip and is draw in stall 2. She also likes to get on with things and would be my second choice here. Sadly she's the 7/2 second favourite, so there's no E/W play there for me, as I like to bet at 8/1 or bigger with E/W bets. Only the 12/1 Lady Lavinia is higher than 8's but if you can get on her with Bet365, Skybet, Coral or Betfred who all pay three places, she might be worth a little tickle.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 10/02/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following pair of runners...

14-day form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 12.55 Newbury
  • 1.38 Uttoxeter
  • 2.05 Newbury
  • 2.30 Naas
  • 3.50 Newbury
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

...but I'm actually going to ignore all of them for one reason or another (do ask, if you're interested) and have a look at what it a very highly rated A/W sprint contest on the evening card. It's the 7.00 Wolverhampton, an 8-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 5f on standard tapeta...

This looks like a wide open contest where you could make a case for pretty much all of them, but only One Night Stand comes here on the back of a win, having beaten Alligator Alley (6th) and Silky Wilkie (7th) by the best part of three lengths at Lingfield three weeks ago.

Kinta was a runner-up LTO having won her previous outing and Intervention has been placed second in each of his last three following four straight wins taking his mark from 74 to 92, but he's still in good nick, beaten by just a short head last time. Mondammej was also a runner-up o his last run, but hasn't won any of his last thirty outings! Silky Wilkie is also without a recent win, losing all ten races in the last eleven months.

Mondammej's bid for a first win in thirty-one races won't be helped by stepping up two classes, as does bottom weight Reigning Profit, whilst in-form Intervention is up one class today with Kinta dropping down a level after losing by just a neck in a Listed contest twelve weeks ago. Only Harry Brown (18 weeks) has been rested for the longer witht he other half-dozen all having raced in the last three weeks; Mondammej actually raced last Sunday up at Newcastle!

Despite his long losing run, he's a former course and distance winner, as are Alligator Alley and Reigning Profit, whilst Intervention and One Night Stand have both won over 6f on this track and Silky Wilkie, One Night Stand & Harry Brown have all won over 5f elsewhere.

Instant Expert says that Mondammej isn't the only one to have to failed win on the A/W in the last couple of years, as top-weight Silkie Wilkie has had a tough time too...

Most of these are on higher marks than their last win, but Harry brown is 2lbs lower and has gone well in a small number of outings. Reigning Profit's 2 from 4 on this track have all been over this 5f trip, which is interesting, as is the fact that a few of these have far better place records than you'd expect from their lack of wins above...

I probably wouldn't eliminate any runner on the back of those place stats, which doesn't really help me whittle the field down, but it does show how competitive the race could be.

The draw stats here would tend to suggest that those drawn in the lower half would have an advantage in terms of both winning and making the frame...

...which is good news for the three at the top of the card who also scored well on the Instant Expert place stats, but as we all know pace is often the key in 5f sprints and if we have a look at how those near 200 race above panned out, there's almost a linear advantage in getting away quickly...

So, if any of those drawn in the lower half of the stalls are fast starters, then they're going to be of huge interest here. Thankfully, we know how they've approached their last few races...

...and if they run true tot he above, then it looks like the in-form One Night Stand will burst out from stall 6 and try to get across Intervention and Silky Wilkie in stalls 2 and 3 and I think that these are probably the three I'm most interested in.

Summary

I like One Night Stand from the pace angle and the fact he has two wins and a runner-up finish from his last four outings. Intervention and Silky Wilkie both stood out on Instant Expert, both are drawn low and both will be keen to get on with things. Of those two, Intervention is in the better form, is drawn slightly lower and has a higher pace score, so Intervention beats Silky Wilkie for me.

I also think that One Night Stand's form and early speed beats Silky Wilkie, so for me it's One Night Stand vs Intervention and there's really very little between them. Both ran well last time out, but One Night Stand won at this Class 2 and Intervention was a runner-up at Class 3 and that might just be the difference. It's a close call but I think I'd take the 11/2 (bet365 @ 5.50pm) One Night Stand to just edge the 5/1 (generally) Intervention out into a fourth consecutive silver medal. If fit, class-dropper and 4/1 fav Kinta is probably the biggest danger after a great run at Lingfield.

Racing Insights, Friday 09/02/24

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced just one qualifier...

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.40 Kempton
  • 2.10 Kempton
  • 2.20 Bangor
  • 3.20 Bangor
  • 4.50 Kempton

...I was going to see if I could find myself an E/W selection or two in the North Wales National, but that's fallen by the wayside now and I'll switch attention to Master of Combat from the H4C report and the 4.07 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta...

This looks a really competitive affair for a Class 4 handicap and plenty will fancy their chances, but only top-weight Wadacre Gomez won last time out and he's two from three. Featured runner Master of Combat (winner of 3 from 7), Arcadian Nights and Light Up Our Stars all had top three finishes on their last outings.

Law Supreme has failed to win any of his five starts in the UK and has now lost 8 in a row, whilst Buxted Too, Arcadian Nights and Light Up Our Stars are all on winless runs of nine, seven and seven races respectively and with Light Up Our Stars now stepping up in class, I'm not sure he's going to snap that cold spell.

Better news for the fast finishing pair Master of Combat and Ernie's Valentine, who both drop down a class as does Buxted Too who at five weeks since his last run, is actually the longest rested of the whole field. he has yet to win at either track or trip, but Master of Combat and Arcadian Nights are both course and distance winners, whilst Ernie's Valentine, the first-time tongue-tied Eagle Day and Light Up Our Stars have all already won over 1f shorter (1m½f) here at Wolverhampton and those course wins are highlighted below by Instant Expert...

Master of Combat's better form has come over slightly shorter trips, whilst Ernie's Valentine has struggled at both going/class. Arcadian Nights is a Class 5 runner in reality and his better Wolverhampton efforts are well over 2yrs ago. Hale End and Law Supreme both have full lines of red from a small sample size and Light Up Our Stars looks generally weak across the board, despite a 20% strike rate on standard going.

The place stats from those races above look like this...

...and if I was to split that in half, these would be the half dozen who look best on that data...

They're strung across the track in stalls 1, 2, 4, 5, 7 and 10, so if the draw stats show a lower half bias, that could be good for me. Let's check over the last 200 or so similar races...

Not exactly a low bias or much bias at all if truth be told, but those drawn highest have fared less well than the others, so that's not great for Ernie's Valentine from my half dozen and if recent performances are anything to go by, then he's a likely back marker in the early stages here...

...which is also far from ideal over a course and distance that has favoured the runners up with or just off the pace...

Summary

Based on the above and using my shortlisted half-dozen, the one I like best is the 5/1 (bet365 @ 5.25pm) Wadacre Gomez. He won last time out, is two from three, his yard is in good form, he scored well on IE and might well get a very easy/soft lead here. I also like featured horse Master of Combat, but his lack of early pace and the extended trip have dissuaded me from backing him to win this and at 7/1, he's no E/W play for me either, although he should make the frame.

Bet365 offer 4 places and 8/1 about Eagle Day, so that could well be a decent E/W bet, whilst I'm intrigued by the 20/1 offered about My Little Queen and I could well be tempted to have a couple of quid on that as an E/W option too. She's unlikely to win, but 20's looks far too big and the step up in trip should help her, as she has made the frame in half of her 16 races between 1m½f and 1m2f, winning three times.

Racing Insights, Thursday 08/02/24

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 1.05 Huntingdon
  • 1.30 Doncaster
  • 2.25 Lingfield
  • 6.35 Newcastle

...the best of which (on class/paper, at least) is the 2.25 Lingfield, a Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard polytrack...

Only top-weight Bosh was a winner last time out, but both Aljari and Hieronymus finished third with the former having won three of his previous four. The latter won two starts ago, as Love de Vega and Mclean House (who is 3 from 5), whilst Charencey won three races ago. Only Baldomero is on a long losing run, having been beaten in each of his last 25 outings over a 23 month period. That said, he has finished in the first three home in 6 of his last 7, so all might not be lost even if his mark just won't come down.

He does, however take a drop in class here, but Hieronymus, Love de Vega and Mclean House are all up in class despite LTO defeats. All seven have raced in the last five weeks with bottom-weight Charencey turned back out after just four days rest. He, along with top-weight Bosh are the only two yet to win over this trip and o the four runners to have raced at this track previously, only Aljari has won here, scoring over course and distance on his sole visit back in June of last year, the first win of a 9-week hat-trick last summer.

Over the last couple of years on the A/W...

...Aljari has probably performed the best, but as shown above Baldomero has been more of a placer than a winner...

In fact, despite a run of 25 defeats, he has consistently made the frame and sometimes at decent odds nd has remained a viable E/W option in many of his races. That said, I can't back him to win here and off place form, I'm not over-excited about Hieronymus, Mclean House or Charencey unless there's something in the pace/draw stats to convince me otherwise.

If we go back over the last 200 or so (good sample size) similar races on this track, there's not much to suggest that the draw will have much effect...

...I suppose there's a slight advantage in the middle, because (a) the bend will be a little sharper for those drawn lower and (b) those drawn higher have a little further to run, but it's really not a huge draw bias. Pace, however, is a different kettle of fish and there's a clear pattern to how those races above have unfolded with those setting the pace doing best of all...

That's not to say that hold-up can't/won't win here, but they're only half as likely as leaders to do so, which looks like far better news for Hieronymus, than it does for the likes of Charencey, based on the field's last three runs...

Summary

You can make a case for several here, but the one I like best is Bosh. He's coming into good form right now, having finished 321 in his last three and was still pulling late on in his win at Chelmsford last time out, suggesting the extra furlong here should suit him. He was far more comfortable than half a length might suggest, beating Admiral D, who had won at Class 2 off a mark of 87 not long ago. Bosh is only up 2lbs here and should go well again.

Aljari is probably my next best, a consistent performer on the A/W since the start of last year who can and does race prominently when called upon. he's till only 3lbs higher than his last in and should be there or thereabouts again today.

The 3pm odds don't give me a viable E/W option here...

...so I'll stick with those two above. Baldomero is a proven placer and Hieronymus might be afforded an easy lead and they'll be the main dangers to my 1-2 as far as I can see.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 07/02/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.30 Fairyhouse
  • 4.10 Sedgefield
  • 4.30 Fairyhouse
  • 4.50 Ludlow

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

1-year course form...

5-year course form...

...and I think we'll look at the Tate and Crisford runners in what initially looks a tight race for the 6.30 Kempton, a 6-runner, Class 4, 3yo A/W handicap over a right-handed 7f on Standard To Slow polytrack...

NEAPOLITAN has a win and three runner-up finishes in his last five outings starting with a win over 6f on this track back in October. Closer than 5th of 10 LTO would sound and drops two classes here.

GUNFIGHTER is the only one of this field with a top-3 finish LTO, beaten by less than a length at Lingfield. Prior to that run, he'd won 2 of 4 (both wins on Tapeta), including one win at today's trip.

EMINNY won two of her first three starts last summer, but is winless in six since although she did make the frame in back to back handicaps in September before a wide-margin Listed class defeat last time out. Hasn't raced in 96 days since then and now drops back to Class 4 for her A/W debut.

AHLAIN also drops down from Class 1 here after finishing last of six (42 lengths adrift) in a Group 3 race at Goodwood in August. She did win here over course and distance (Class 5) two starts ago on her sole A/W outing to date and whilst unexposed after just three starts, might need the run after 165 days off.

RICH GLORY is another with very few miles on the clock having made just four appearances to date, all on turf (good/good to Firm). He has been gelded during a 4-month break and steps up in trip for the first time here, but does drop two classes for his handicap and cheekpieces debuts.

CROSS THE TRACKS won a Class 4, 6f novice event on debut back in September, but struggled in four subsequent races before running here over course and distance last time out, when headed inside the final furlong. he'd have probably still made the frame but for losing a couple of places when hampered close to the line. Could get closer with less traffic to contend with.

Instant Expert says...

...that off an admittedly small sample size (the field only has 35 combined outings), Neapolitan and Ahlain have the best set of results, whilst Gunfighter is very experienced (relatively speaking, of course!) at Class 4. He has the inside draw here and whilst stalls 3 & 4 have fared better than the inner stalls, he's not in a bad starting point according to our draw analyser...

...which says those drawn highest are lest likely to win/place. That said, they can still win, but their best angle of attack is probably to try and get away and grab the lead, as highlighted by our pace/draw heat map...

...which is derived from those draw stats above and the following pace data from the same races...

The potential glitch/fly in the ointment comes with this field's pace stats from their most recent outings...

...suggesting little early pace, although Rich Glory and Neapolitan tend not to hang about.

Summary

On form, Neapolitan and Gunfighter look the ones to beat and both are drawn low to middle of the six, thus avoiding the higher two stalls. Neapolitan was the pick of the pack, followed by Ahlain on Instant Expert and despite a lack of help from the pace stats, I'd be inclined to believe that this trio would be the first three home.

Of the three, I like Neapolitan best with not a great deal to choose between the other two. No prices were offered at 3.35pm Tuesday, but I'd expect Neapolitan to be around the 3/1 mark.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 06/02/24

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...where the first three would be of the most obvious interest and we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 3.20 Taunton
  • 4.20 Taunton
  • 4.35 Market Rasen

The race featuring numbers 2 & 4 on The Shortlist looks a better contest than the one featuring nos 1& 3, so we'll head to Lincolnshire for the 3.35 Market Rasen, a 9-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase over what is effectively a right-handed 3m½f after a 132 yards rail adjustment. The ground is expected to be good to soft and here's how they're due to line up...

All nine set to go to post have raced in the last 22 to 48 days, so there shouldn't be any fitness issues here. Easy Bucks, Scene One and bottom-weight Mixed wave all won last time out and this trio are two from four, three from four and two from three respectively.

Of their rivals, only Concetto has won in the last seven outings and that was seven races ago, whilst Jimmy The Digger, Geryville and Song of Earth are winless in 7, 9 and 7 respectively.

Jimmy The Digger and Geryville do both drop in class here, though, as does Concetto, but bottom-weight LTO winner Mixedwave is up a level for a race that sees Jar du Desert make just a second handicap appearance and Easy Bucks makes a second yard debut for Peter Bowen after 1 run/win in Ireland for John Joseph Hanlon. Scene One and Concetto both wear cheekpieces for the second time after quite differing results in them last time out.

Geryville, Easy Bucks and Concetto have already won over a similar trip to this one, whilst Scene One won here over 2m3½f last time out. Only Mixedwave has won over course and distance, though with two wins and a runner-up finish from three efforts at 3m½f/3m1f and it's Scene One and Easy Bucks who initially catch the eye on Instant Expert...

...although Geryville and Mixedwave have really good place stats...

This type of race has, despite the distance, suited those runners keen to get on with things with prominent runners/leaders providing 55% of the winners and 53.8% of the placers from just 47.1% of the runners...

...which based on the field's last four efforts, puts our three LTO winners, Easy Bucks, Scene One and Mixedwave in the hotseat...

Summary

We have three LTO winners in Easy Bucks, Scene One and Mixedwave and they're the three most likely to get on with it over a course and distance that rewards those setting the tempo. All three are in great form, all three scored well on Instant Expert and two of them appear on The Shortlist. And they're the three to pick from for me.

It's a tight-looking contest, mind and you/the market can make a case for quite a few of these, based on the 6.20pm odds...

...and of my three, I prefer Scene One to beat Mixedwave with Easy Bucks not far out of it.

Racing Insights, Monday 05/02/24

/in /by

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 1.45 Lingfield
  • 2.50 Punchestown
  • 3.02 Carlisle
  • 7.30 Southwell

And with those being a Class 5 A/W handicap, an Irish Maiden hurdle, a 4-runner Mares' chase and a Class 6 A/W handicap, I'm going to stray from the free list again and have a look at the highest-rated UK race that has at least six runners and isn't a maiden or novice event, sending us towards the 3.32 Carlisle, an 11-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m1f on soft ground...

A fairly open looking contest with just the one LTO winner in the shape of El Jefe, who has actually won each of his last three starts taking his mark from 84 to today's 105 (up 8lbs from LTO). Elsewhere, only Portstorm, City Derby, Applaus and Palm Beach have failed to any of their last seven outings, going down in 14, 8, 11 and 11 respectively, although Applaus' last win was in this very race a year ago off 2lbs higher than today.

Skycutter, Kingston Bridge and Pretending all drop down a class here, but Serious Ego and Geordies Dream are both up a level with the latter making just a second appearance in handicap company today, as does the lighlty-raced Grand Soufle, whilst Portstorm makes a second yard debut for Ian Duncan (having left the yard in November 2021) after failing to win any of eleven races in Ireland for Colin McBratney. He hasn't raced for 325 days and could very well need the run.

No such layoff issues elsewhere with the rest of the entire field having raced in the last 15 (Pretending) to 87 (Geordies Dream) days. Portstorm, Skycutter, Pretending and Palm Beach have yet to win over a similar trip to this one, but the latter is just one of three to have won at this track before, landing a 2m3½f novice hurdle in March 2022. The other two to have won here are Kingston Bridge (2m3½f maiden hurdle last March) and Applaus who has won three times here over course and distance, the last of which was in this race a year ago.

Instant Expert often helps us see who is and who isn't seen to be suited by the expected conditions...

...and whilst the above doesn't exactly identify any to back immediately, it does raise questions about several of these on soft ground (Applaus & Serious Ego) and at Class 4 (Portstorm, El Jefe, City Derby, Applaus & Palm Beach). With regards to Class, only Pretending has won at Class 3.

Place form from the above races looks like this...

...with Serious Ego looking particularly weak and if he's going to prove that suggestion wrong, he's probably going to pass most if not of all of his rivals on the run-in, if the pace scores from his last few outings are anything to go by...

...he's one of several who have tended to be waited with in recent races, whilst last year's winner Applaus looks to be a confirmed front-runner. he didn't set the pace when winning here last year, he actually raced just off the leaders and this would be a better tactic here than setting the tempo himself...

...with those racing in mid-division also faring very well.

Summary

It's Pretending here for me today. A Class 3 winner two starts ago and a very creditable 4th of 15 last time out, the sole mare in the race is now down in class and weight and has made the frame ion three of four starts at this level. She has won on heavy ground, so soft underfoot conditions shouldn't bother her too much and having raced in mid-division/prominently in her last two starts, might well also have the ideal pace profile.

She's currently (3.55pm Sunday) available at 9/2 with both Bet365 and Hills. El Jefe is the 10/3 favourite as he seeks a fourth win on the bounce and although I think he'll go well/close, the extra weight might just be his undoing today. Elsewhere with the bookies paying four places, Kingston Bridge, Skycutter and Grand Soufle would all be worth a second glance at around the 7/1 to 8/1 mark, especially if they drifted a little.

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