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2026 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 11th March 2026)

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Each day of the 2026 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race.

Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2026 Cheltenham Festival for you!

The 'day two' feature is the Queen Mother Champion Chase - a race trainer Nicky Henderson has won six times.

You can also see the all the other daily Cheltenham trends 2026 below.

Cheltenham Day One Trends 2026
Cheltenham Day Two Trends 2026
Cheltenham Day Three Trends 2026
Cheltenham Day Four Trends 2026

Cheltenham Festival Trends 2026

Wednesday 11th March (Old Course & Cross Country)

1:20 – Turners Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 5f ITV

2025 Winner: THE NEW LION (3/1)
Trainer – Dan Skelton
Jockey – Harry Skelton
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses….

• 19 of the last 21 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 8 of the last 12 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
• 13 of the last 17 winners came from the top two-rated on BHA ratings
• 21 of the last 25 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
• 25 of the last 31 winners won last time out
• 30 of the last 31 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• The Irish have won 15 of the last 23 (10 of last 12)
• Horses rated 150+ do well
• 14 of the last 17 winners had won a Graded Novice Hurdle
• 26 of the last 31 winners (including last 14) had won at least one bumper race
• 19 of the last 20 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 12 of the last 15 winners were aged 6
• In the last 14 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 29 of the 42 top 3 places
• 25 of the last 27 were NH bred
• Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (9 of the last 15 had won an Irish Point)
• Respect Willie Mullins – 7 winners in last 18 years (5 of the last 12)
• Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 8 runnings
• Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 3 times (1993, 2004, 2013)

Negatives….

• Only 2 winners aged older than 6 has won since 1974
• Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
• Horses aged 7 or older are 1 from 60 (since 1988)
• Only two of the last 39 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
• 21 of the last 22 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten – The New Lion (2025) bucked the trend
• Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten 0 from 31 in the last 19 years)

2:00 - Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 3m 80y ITV

2025 Winner: LECKY WATSON (20/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Sean O’Keefe
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

• The last 24 winners had run in a Graded Novice Chase
• 18 of the last 19 winners finished 1st or 2nd in a G1/G2 over fences
• 27 of the last 31 winners had only one previous season over hurdles
• Respect 7 year-olds – won 16 of the last 19 (21 of last 26)
• 14 of the last 20 winners won last time out
• 8 of the last 16 winners were beaten on their chase debut
• 9 of the last 18 winners had won a bumper before
• 9 of the last 19 favourites won
• 16 of the last 19 winners aged 7
• The last 11 winners were rated 150+
• 12 of the last 14 winners returned single-figures in the betting
• 22 of the last 25 winners had run between 3-5 times over fences
• Every winner since 1997 had their chase debut the previous year
• Irish bred horses are 23 from the last 29
• 13 of the last 19 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
• 9 of the last 17 winners were trained in Ireland
• Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins (7 wins) and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race (12 of the last 21 between them)
• Willie Mullins has trained 3 of the last 5 winners
• 27 of the last 33 were novice hurdling last season
• 7 of the last 16 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
• Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (57 of the last 59 winners had)
• 14 of the last 19 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year
• 9 of the last 11 winners came from the top 3 in the betting market

Negatives….

• No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
• Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
• Avoid horses that had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
• Just 4 of the last 26 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
• No winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26th Dec) have won gone onto win this race
• French bred horses are 2-from-46 (last 18 years, but the 2022 winner L’Homme Presse and 2024 winner Fact To File were French-breds)
• The Tizzard yard are 0-from-10 over the last 14 years
• Avoid unbeaten horses (only 3 of the last 26 winners)
• Mares are currently 0-from-12 in the race (last 28 runnings)
• Horses in headgear have a poor record
• Drinmore Novice Chase winners are 0-10
• Gordon Elliott runners are 0-11 since 2011

2:40 - BetMGM Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 5f ITV

2025 Winner: JIMMY DU SEUIL (16/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Danny Mullins
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

• 13 of the last 21 were 2nd season hurdlers
• 19 of the last 25 winners raced less than 10 times over hurdles
• 13 of the last 16 winners had run at the Festival before (11 had top 4 finish)
• 12 of the last 16 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
• 12 of the last 17 winners were rated in the 140’s
• 16 of the last 26 winners aged 6 or 7
• 12 of the last 16 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• 15 of the last 20 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
• 21 of the last 31 winners won earlier that season
• Respect JP McManus-owned runners
• Respect trainers Dan Skelton (2 of last 3), Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (9 wins in last 16 years)
• 11 of the last 24 winners were French-Bred
• 15 of the last 32 won last time out
• Respect Irish-trained runners (8 of the last 17)
• Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (15 of last 17 winners)
• 18 of the last 21 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
• Trainer Gordon Elliott was won 3 of the last 15 runnings
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has won 3 of the last 12 (4 in total)
• 5 year-olds do well from the small % that have run (win and place)
• 4 of the last 7 winners wore headgear
• The last 29 winners aged 9 or younger
• The last 10 year-old winner in 1995

Negatives….

• Just one winning favourite in the last 22 years (2020)
• Only 6 winners since 2000 had run in 10+ hurdles races
• Horses aged 10+ are just 3 from 313 to even place since 1999
• Just 6 winners since 2000 aged 8+
• Horses rated 150+ don’t have an overall great record, although the 2019 winner was rated 151 and 2020 winner was 152
• Willie Mullins won the race in 2018 & 2025, plus had the second in 2019, but overall has an average record – 56 runners – just two placed inside the top 2 (2 wins Jimmy Du Seuil 2025 & Bleu Berry, 2018)

3:20 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m 6f 37y ITV

2025 Winner: STUMPTOWN 5/2 (fav)
Trainer – Gavin Cromwell
Jockey – Keith Donoghue
UK/Irish: Irish

Note: From 2025 this race was run back as a handicap after 8 years run as a conditions race

Pluses….

• The Irish have won 17 of the last 20 runnings
• Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
• 17 of the last 20 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
• 23 of the last 27 winners came from the top three in the betting
• 11 of the last 20 ran in the December Cross Country race at Cheltenham
• 14 of the last 20 ran in either the Nov or Dec Cross Country races
• 16 of the last 20 winners had run on the course before
• Respect jockey Keith Donoghue (5 wins in total)
• 16 or the last 20 winners were aged 10 or younger
• 9 of the last 14 winners were aged 8 or 9
• Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 13 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
• Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 5 of the last 8 runnings
• 7 winners since 2005 owned by JP McManus
• 10 of the last 20 winners had run in the NH Chase before
• 6 of the last 10 winners were owned by the Gigginstown Stud House
• 7 of the last 9 winners wore headgear
• 9 of the last 12 winners wore a tongue-tie

Negatives….

• Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record, but the 2022 winner Delta Work was running for the first time over the X-Country course
• Just 4 of the last 15 winners won their last race
• Horses aged 7 or younger are only 3 from 101, but the 2020 winner was aged 6
• Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 17
• Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 13

4:00 - BetMGM Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 99y ITV

2025 Winner: MARINE NATIONALE (5/1)
Trainer – Barry Connell
Jockey – Sean Flanagan
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

• 13 of the last 25 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
• 4 of the last 13 winners won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
• 26 of the last 41 had won at the Festival before
• Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 11 of the last 26 between them
• The last 5 winners were trained in Ireland
• Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 14
• 31 of the last 39 winners aged between 7-9
• 50% of the last 12 winners ran in the Shloer Chase (Cheltenham)
• 14 of the last 24 winners won last time out
• 15 of the last 20 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
• 20 of the last 23 winners had run that calendar year
• 42 of the last 44 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
• 18 of the last 26 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
• 9 of the last 19 winners were French-bred
• 13 of the last 23 winners were second season chasers
• 18 of the last 20 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
• 23 of the last 27 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
• 18 of the last 26 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase
• 7 of the last 14 Arkle winners (previous season) to run have won
• Past champions do well – 14 horses have won the CC more than once

Negatives….

• Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 40 years
• Just 1 winner in last 21 had run 4+ times that season
• Horses that didn’t run in that calendar year have a bad record
• Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, has just 2 wins in the race (Energumene 2022 & 2023)
• Just 3 of the last 24 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
• Be wary of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977
• Dublin Chase winners are currently 0-from-6 (last 2 winners beaten in that DRF race)
• Only 3 winners aged 6 or younger in the last 50 years
• Just one 11 year-old winner in the last 46 years
• 7 of the last 8 odds-on favourites have lost (over the last 10 years)
• Just one mare has ever won the race (Put The Kettle On, 2021)

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The 2026 Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide

£4 Discount With Promo Code: RTCFBG26

Written by Paul Ferguson and Guest Authors, is the complete guide to The Festival, with every fact, stat and trend covered to help you make the most informed bets throughout the best week of the year.

Discount (£4) applies to both print and digital bundle.

Grab Your £4 Discount Here

 

 

 

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4:40 - Debenhams Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 62y ITV

2025 Winner: JAZZY MATTY
Trainer – Danny Gilligan
Jockey – Cian Collins
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

• 8 of the last 12 winners carried 11st or more
• 18 of the last 22 winners had run at the Festival before
• 8 of the last 22 winners ran in the previous year’s renewal
• Irish have won 6 of the last 13 runnings
• 11 of the last 16 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
• 13 of the last 17 winners were novices or second season chasers
• 13 of the last 20 winners aged between 6-8
• 14 of the last 22 winners were aged 8 or older
• Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
• Paul Nicholls has won 4 of the last 22
• Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 12 placed)
• 13 of the last 15 winners were rated at least 138
• 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
• Novices have won 7 of the last 17 runnings
• 5 of the last 11 winners won after a 91+ day break
• 12 of the last 14 winners were rated between 135-147
• 12 of the last 15 winners rated between 138-150
• 8 of the last 12 winners carried 11st or more in weight
• 22 of the last 26 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences
• Course form is often a big plus

Negatives….

• Horses aged 10+ are just 3 wins from the last 33 runnings, but the 2022 winner was a 10 year-old
• Trainer Willie Mullins has never won this race
• Last time out winners are just 1 from last 18
• Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 2 from 37 since 2005 – but last year’s winner Jazzy Matty was 6 and returned 15/2
• Only 2 of the last 21 winners were favourites
• Just 3 winners since 2000 had run in more than 12 chases
• Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record

5:30 - Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1) 2m 87y RTV

2025 Winner: BAMBINO FEVER (4/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Miss J Townend
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

• 31 of the last 33 had won last time out (all of last 22)
• 26 of the last 33 winners trained in Ireland
• Respect Irish-trained runners (26 from 42)
• 24 of the last 33 came from the top 6 in the betting
• 25 of the last 33 were Irish-bred
• 13 of the last 25 winners were second season horses
• 19 of the last 20 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 22 of the last 33 winners aged 5 years-old
• 22 of the last 24 had their debut runs in Ireland
• 12 of the last 23 had been beaten in a race before
• 6 of the last 16 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
• Respect Willie Mullins (14 winners) – 5 of the last 6
• The Irish lead the British 27-7 in the race history
• Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 9 runnings
• 14 of the last 23 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
• Mares are 4-23 in the last 20 runnings (Total Enjoyment, Fayonagh, Relegate, Bambino Fever)
• 8 of the last 10 winners had run in February
• 3 of the last 7 winners owned by Cheveley Park Stud

Negatives….

• Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
• Just 2 winners failed to win last time out
• Just 2 of the last 15 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
• Only 4 of the last 15 winners were won by UK-based trainers
• 4 year-olds are 1 from 71 since 2000 (Cue Card)
• Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race

 

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2026 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 12th March 2026)

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Each day of the 2026 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2026 Cheltenham Festival for you!

Day Three at the Cheltenham Festival features the Grade One Ryanair Chase - a contest that 17 of the last 21 winners had won at Cheltenham before.

While we've also got the Grade One Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle - a prize that Teahupoo won in 2024 and is a red-hot favourite to win back his crown.

You can also see the all the other daily Cheltenham trends 2026 below.

Cheltenham Day One Trends 2026
Cheltenham Day Two Trends 2026
Cheltenham Day Three Trends 2026
Cheltenham Day Four Trends 2026

Thursday 12th March 2026 (New Course)

Cheltenham Festival Trends 2026

1:20 – Ryanair Mares’ Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 179y ITV

2025 Winner: AIR OF ENTITLEMENT (16/1)
Trainer – Henry de Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

• A new race (Just 10 renewals)
• All 10 winners aged 5 or 6
• 7 of the last 10 winners trained in Ireland, but 3 of last 4 UK trained
• Favourites have won 3 of the 10 runnings
• 7 of the last 10 winners won last time out
• 8 of the 10 winners had won over 2m2f or further
• 4 of the 10 winners were French-bred
• 5 of the last 10 winners were top or 2nd top rated
• 5 of the last 10 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
• 5 of the last 10 past winners started their careers in France
• 6 of the last 10 winners had run at least 4 times over hurdles
• 6 of the 10 winners were unbeaten that season
• 4 of the 10 winners have been aged 5 years-old
• 6 of the last 10 winners aged 6 (LAST 6)
• Willie Mullins won the race in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020
• Owner Mrs Susannah Ricci has won 2 of the last 10 runnings

Negatives….

• British trained runners are 3-from-71
• Nicky Henderson is currently 0-from-12
• Gordon Elliott is 0-9
• JP McManus owned are 0-from-12
• 7 year-olds or older are 0-from-26
• 4 year-olds are 0-9

2:00 – Jack Richards Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (Grade 2) 2m 4f ITV

2025 Winner: CALDWELL POTTER (7/1)
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Harry Cobden
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses….

• 13 of the last 17 winners aged 6 or 7
• 14 of the last 17 winners finished in the top 2 last time
• 11 of the last 17 winners were a single-figure price
• 9 of the last 15 winners were previous bumper or point winners
• 4 of the last 9 winners ran in the Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase on Trials Day
• 12 of the last 13 winners British-trained
• 6 of the last 17 winners ran over hurdles at last year’s Festival
• 15 of the last 17 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 11 of the last 12 winners rated 137+
• 10 of the last 17 winners had only won once over fences
• 7 of the last 10 winners carried 11-7 or more
• Brian Hughes has a good record (2 wins from just 5 rides)
• 10 of the last 11 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
• The last 11 winners carried 11-2 or more
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race twice

Negatives….

• Just 2 of the last 17 winners didn't finish in the top 3 last time out
• Just 1 on the last 17 winners had won more than two chase races
• Only 2 of the last 17 winners aged 8 or older
• Just 2 of the last 17 winners aged 5
• Only 2 of the last 17 winners Irish-trained

2:40 - Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 3f 200y ITV

2025 Winner: LOSSIEMOUTH (4/6 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

• Follow Irish-trained mares (15 of last 18)
• The favourite (or 2nd fav) has won 14 of the last 18 runnings
• 11 of the last 18 favourites have won
• 14 of the last 18 winners aged between 5-7 years-old
• 16 of the last 18 winners had won over at least 2m4f
• Willie Mullins has trained 11 of the last 18 winners
• Look for Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nolan & Alan King runners
• 11 of the last 18 winners had won or placed at a previous Festival
• Novices generally do well
• 13 of the last 18 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
• 6 of the last 14 winners had won over 2m6f+ before
• Horses that began their careers in bumpers have done well
• Respect French-bred mares – won 11 renewals
• 14 of the last 18 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
• 16 of the last 18 winners had won (or placed) in a graded race against the males
• 13 of the last 18 won last time out
• Rich Ricci mares are 4-10 in the last 11 runnings

Negatives….

• Avoid front-runners
• Winners of the previous season Dawn Run Mares’ Novice Hurdle (0-5)
• British-bred mares are currently 3-90
• Just 3 outright favourites in the last 11 runnings
• Just one winner from last 34 runners wearing headgear have won
• Be wary of Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Noel Meade runners
• Benie De Deaux is the only ex-flat horse to win the race
• Just 2 winners aged 8+ (Quevega & Honeysuckle)

3:20 - Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV

2025 Winner: BOB OLINGER (8/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

• 15 of the last 21 won last time out
• 7 of the last 12 winners were second season hurdlers
• 22 of the last 26 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 31 of the last 36 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
• 19 of the last 25 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 19 winners since 2000 returned in single-figures in the betting
• 10 of the last 24 were French Bred
• Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
• 8 of the last 19 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle last time out
• 21 of the last 26 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
• 17 of the last 29 winners won or placed at the Festival before
• 16 of the last 21 winners started 10/1 or less in the betting
• Respect past winners of the race
• 19 of the last 29 winners had won 7 or less times over hurdles
• 3 of the last 8 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
• Since 1987 all winners bar Bob Olinger (10) and Sire Du Berlais (11) aged 9 or younger

Negatives….

• Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out
• A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
• Horses that have lost previously in the race don’t fare well
• Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice (Nicholls Canyon 2017 and Penhill 2016)
• The Irish have won the race just 8 times since 1995 (but have won the last 5)
• Just 3 winners aged 9 in the last 36 runnings
• Horses aged 10 or older have just one win since1986 (1 from 70) - 2023 year’s winner Sire Du Berlais (11)

 

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The 2026 Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide

£4 Discount With Promo Code: RTCFBG26

Written by Paul Ferguson and Guest Authors, is the complete guide to The Festival, with every fact, stat and trend covered to help you make the most informed bets throughout the best week of the year.

Discount (£4) applies to both print and digital bundle.

Grab Your £4 Discount Here

 

 

 

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4:00 - Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) 2m 4f 127y ITV

2025 Winner: FACT TO FILE (6/4 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Mark Walsh
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses….

• 17 of the 21 winners had won at Cheltenham before
• 8 of the last 13 winners were 2nd season chasers
• All 18 winners (since getting G1 status) had won over 2m4f
• 14 of the last 18 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
• 15 of the last 18 had won or placed at the Festival before
• The King George VI Chase is often a good guide (8 from 32)
• The previous year’s renewal is often a good guide
• 17 of the last 21 winners returned 13/2 or shorter
• 10 of the last 14 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
• 16 of the last 17 aged 7-9 years-old
• 17 of the last 18 winners were rated 161+
• Horse rated 170+ are 4-6
• 4 of the last 21 winners were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
• 15 of last 21 winners were fav or 2nd fav
• 11 of the last 18 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 18 of the last 21 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
• 10 of the last 14 winners had 11 (or less) runs over fences
• Trainers Willie Mullins, Jonjo O’Neill, Paul Nicholls, Henry de Bromhead, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
• Respect first time headgear (3 from 13)
• 12 of the last 18 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• Last 12 winners were French-bred
• All winners ran 5 or less times that season
• 6 of the last 10 winners trained by Willie Mullins
• Last 14 winners aged 9 or younger
• The Irish have won 8 of the last 10 runnings
• Since upgraded, the last 18 winners ALL ran at the previous season’s Festival (2008)
• All 18 winners (since becoming Grade 1) won over minimum of 2m4f

Negatives….

• Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
• No winner aged 11 or older
• Only 1 of the last 17 winners aged 10
• Just one winner rated 160 or below
• Just 6 of the last 18 won last time out
• Gordon Elliott runners 0-8
• No winner was having their Festival debut

4:40 - Pertemps Network Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) 2m 7f 213y ITV

2025 Winner: DODDIETHEGREAT (25/1)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Brian Hughes
UK/Irish: UK

Pluses….

• Irish have won the last 7 of last 10 runnings
• 13 of the last 14 winners aged 8 or younger
• Last 14 winners carried 10st-9lbs+ - with 12 10st 11lbs
• 10 of the last 18 winners placed in their last race (5 won)
• 13 of the last 25 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
• 13 of the last 15 winners were rated 138 or higher
• 14 of the last 19 winners were rated between 131-142 (inc)
• 12 of the last 15 winners were rated between 138-148
• 12 of the last 21 winners had won over at least 2m7f
• 9 of the last 14 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
• 6 of the last 13 winners ran 7 or less times over hurdles
• 9 of the last 12 winners returned 14/1 or shorter
• 8 of the last 25 winners won their last race
• 6 of the last 10 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
• 3 of the last 17 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
• Look for Nicky Henderson, Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies and Pipe-trained runners
• Respect JP McManus-owned horses – won it again in 2019 and 2020
• Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 8 runnings
• Nicky Henderson has won 2 of the last 11 runnings (had 1st & 2nd last year)
• Respect horses with headgear (10 since 2000) and 9 of the last 10
• 9 of the last 10 winners wore a tongue-tie
• 7 of the last 10 winners Irish-trained
• 6 of the last 10 ran in the Leopardstown Qualifier (Christmas)

Negatives….

• Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
• Horses that have won 3+ times that season have a poor recent record
• Since 2000 only 1 winner didn’t have a run that calendar year
• 5 year-olds have won just twice since 1973
• Just 1 horse rated 150+ since 2000 has finished in the top 2
• Only 2 winning favourites in last 20 years
• Just 1 winner in the last 42 years aged 10+
• Willie Mullins has never won this race
• Paul Nicholls is currently 1 from 21 (One winner, One third and two 2nds in the last 12 runnings)
• Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 3 from 59

5:30 - Rosconn Group Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase 3m 2f RTV

2025 Winner: DAILY PRESENT (12/1)
Trainer – Paul Nolan
Jockey – Mr B T Stone
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

• Respect horses aged between 7-9 year-olds
• 10 of the last 13 winners aged 7-8
• 13 of the last 18 winners failed to win earlier that season
• 11 of the last 18 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
• 10 of the last 14 winners rated between 137-143
• 6 of the last 7 winners were novices
• 10 of the last 16 winners returned 9/1 or shorter (top three in the betting)
• 14 of the last 17 winners carried 11st 4lbs+
• 12 of the last 17 winners ran in February
• Look for Elliott, McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
• Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
• 20 of the last 26 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
• Look for non-claiming amateur riders
• 9 of the last 15 winners wore headgear
• 5 of the last 11 winners wore a tongue-strap
• 14 of the last 17 winners came from the top 6 in the market
• Jockey Derek O’Connor 2nd 3 times and 1st in 2019 and 2024
• Owner JP McManus often does well in the race (4 of the last 14)
• 21 of the last 23 winners DIDN’T win last time out

Negatives….

• Just 8 Irish winners in last 42 years (but have won 8 of the last 12)
• Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record
• Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 25
• Trainer Willie Mullins has a poor record in the race (never won it)
• Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record – but last year’s winner 10-7
• Just on winning 6yold since 1971
• French breds are 1 from 95 since 2005
• Just 2 of the last 21 winners aged 10+
• Avoid claiming jockeys – 4 from 119 since 2009
• Just 2 of the last 23 winners won last time out
• Patrick Mullins has never ridden the winner

 

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Sat TV Trends: 7th March 2026

/in /by

The excitement is building for the week before the Cheltenham Festival, but before that, this Saturday the ITV cameras head to Sandown, with the Imperial Cup their feature race, plus they are also at Wolverhampton for two races that include the Lincoln Handicap Trial.

Don't forget there is also a £100k Imperial Cup bonus, should the winner go onto land any race at the Cheltenham Festival.

Sandown Horse Racing Trends (ITV3)

1.50 – European Breeders´ Fund Betfair "National Hunt" Novices´ Handicap Hurdle Final (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4fy ITV3

22/22 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
21/22 – Aged 6 or younger
21/22 – Carried 10-11 or more
18/22 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
18/22 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
18/22 – Rated 129 or less
17/22 – Unplaced favourites
15/22 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
15/22 – Returned 9/1 or less in the betting
14/22 – Irish bred
14/22 – Aged 6 years-old
12/22 – Had won over this trip before
8/22 – Won last time out
3/22 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 11)
2/22 – Won by the Fergal O’Brien yard (2 of the last 10)
2/22 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
2/22 – Won by the Pipe yard
1/22 – Winning favourites
1/22 – Winners that went onto run at Cheltenham (3rd Martin Pipe)
The last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6

2:27 – Betfair Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV3

19/22 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
19/22 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
20/22 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
19/22 – Rated 124 or higher
17/22 – Carried 10-13 or less
16/22 – Aged 6 or younger
15/22 – Had won over at least 2m1f (hurdles) before
13/22 – Carried 10-8 or less
12/22 – Winners that went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, Gaspara - Fred Winter)
12/22 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
11/22 – Finished in the top two last time out
10/22 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/22 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2), Sandown (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
7/22 – French bred
7/22 – Had raced at Sandown (hurdles) before – 3 had won there before
6/22 – Winning favourites
6/22 – Won last time out
5/22 – Won by the Pipe stable (have won it 9 times in all)
2/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 6)
2/22 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 of last 9)
2/22 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/22 – Ridden by Harry Cobden (2 of the last 6)
Go Dante (Olly Murphy/Sean Bowen) has won the last 2 runnings
Olympian (1993), Blowing Wind (1998) and Gaspara (2007) landed the Imperial Cup bonus (won a race at the Cheltenham Festival)
The average winning SP in the last 22 years is 11/1

3:00 – British Stallion Studs EBF Mares´ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed) Cl1 2m110y ITV3

20/21 – Had won at least one NH Flat race before
20/21 – 1ST or 2ND last time out
19/21 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
15/21 – Had won just once before (NH Flat race)
14/21– Won last time out
13/21 – Aged 5 years-old
12/21 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
3/21 – Winning favourites (3 of the last 6)
14 of the last 16 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old

3:35 – Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (Challenger Staying Chase Series Qual’) Cl3 (5yo+ 0-135) 3m37y ITV3

19/21 – Carried 11-0 or more
19/21 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
18/21 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
18/21 - Rated between 125-134
17/21 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences
16/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/21 – Aged 8 or older
13/21 – Irish bred
13/21 – Placed favourites
12/21 – Unplaced last time out
11/21 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/21 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
4/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/21 – Won last time out
4/21 – Winning favourites (1 joint) (3 of the last 8)
The last 10 winners returned 9/1 or less
8 of the last 10 winners carried 11st or more
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/2

Wolverhampton Horse Racing Trends (SkySports/ITV)

2:42 – BetMGM Sports Lincoln Trial Handicap Cl2 1m141y ITV3

21/23 – Aged 6 or younger
20/23 – Won over a mile (or further) before
19/23 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
19/23 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
18/23– Won at least three times before
12/23 – Placed favourites
12/23 – Came from stall 8 or higher
11/23 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
11/23 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
10/23 – Had won at Wolverhampton before
9/23 – Won last time out
8/23 – Aged 5 years-old
6/23 – Winning favourites
4/23 – Ridden by Jim Crowley (2) or David Probert (2)
2/23 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/23 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2 of the last 7 winners were trained by Andrew Balding
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

3:15– BetMGM Lady Wulfruna Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 7f32y ITV3

16/19 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
15/19 – Placed favourites
15/19 – Had won over 7f before
12/19 – Rated 104 or higher
12/19 – Had raced within the last 3 weeks
11/19 – Had won at least 4 times before
10/19 – Raced at Lingfield last time out
9/19 – Unplaced last time out
8/19 – Had won at Wolverhampton before
7/19 – Winning favourite
6/19 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
3/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 8)
2/19 – Trained by Marco Botti
2/19 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of last 6)
10 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
9/10 – Aged 4 or 5 (7 aged 4)

 

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LRC Cheltenham Preview Night 2026

/in , /by

It was with the usual excitement that I headed west from Hackney to the monied enclaves of Kensington for an evening of Cheltenham chat with a panel of bona fide experts at the London Racing Club's annual Cheltenham Festival Preview night.

The panel was comprised of Racing TV's 'Road to Cheltenham' voice, Lydia Hislop (LH); stats, trends and form judge, Matt Tombs (MT); BetVictor rep and co-host of Sky Sports Racing's Friday night show, Sam Boswell (SB); with LRC President and Racing Post chief correspondent Lee Mottershead (LM) doing the steering.

Below is my impression of their thoughts, hopefully faithfully reproduced.

[NB Since the evening a few non-runners have emerged - note those as you scan through...]

Tuesday

Supreme

LH – Strong Supreme. It might be that Willie Mullins horses step forward notably here?

Will be strongly run race. Mighty Park has a bit to prove.

Talk The Talk jumped better at DRF but quicker ground may put hurdling under pressure – jumping improving, made up ground off slow pace impressively.

MT – Old Park Star most likely winner but his price is tight enough.

Think TTT should run in Turners.

Against El Cairos.

Sober Glory interesting but might need to lead. Leader d’Allier is a Townend connection. He could be value.

So too Idaho Sun, who beat Mydaddypaddy on merit in Formby. Strongly run race should suit, each-way price.

SB – OPS will be taken on by bookmakers on the day. Idaho Sun is the wise guy horse – each-way angle into the race.

Arkle

SB – Kopek des Bordes worst result of the week right now, don’t really get the weakness of Lulamba.

MT – Once raced horses can win the Arkle. 2/8 this century and two others were no-hopers. Irish Arkle may have left a mark on Kargese / Romeo Coolio.

LH – Very deep Arkle. Lulamba very good but vulnerable. Which are likely to be QMCC contenders next year? KdB, maybe Kargese. But Lulamba / Romeo Coolio look more like King George types. Prefer KdB.

LM – If there was still a 2m4f G1, Lulamba / Romeo Coolio would be in there. So the race changes seem to be working.

Champion Hurdle

LH – Lossiemouth might go this way and could wear cheekpieces if she does (acc. to Rich Ricci). Brighterdaysahead & Lossiemouth might have had hard races at DRF (93% finishing speed). Golden Ace looks sure to run her race.

SB – The New Lion won’t be favourite on the day if Lossie runs. Not sure about his jumping at championship speed. Poniros might be the angle.

MT – Not sure Lossie will run. Don’t think she looks happy in fast run 2m. Want to take on TNL, unknown quantity. Opposable at the price. Backed BDA but cooled a bit, hard race LTO. Might have a stab at Alexei at big price.

Tuesday Handicaps

LH – "Iroko wins the Ultima". Think he’s got a very strong chance.

SB – Western Junior playable for the Fred Winter if landing there.

Wednesday

Queen Mother Champion Chase

LH – Big prices: Libberty Hunter and Only By Night if they go this way. Non-runner no bet (NRNB).

MT – Jonbon probably not running in QMCC. Cannot have L'eau du Sed or Il Etait Temps. Freshness angle totally overplayed with the former. In the 'without Majborough' market, Quilixios goes well fresh.

SB – Majborough might be a be tricky watch at odds-on. Have a look at the 'without' market at the big prices.

Turners

MT – Mighty Park should maybe come here because easier to win Turners off one run. Didn’t hit the line that hard on his debut. This race is perfect for Talk The Talk; if not TTT, King Rasko Grey and/or Skylight Hustle. Mullins first string often wins, but his other runners have never won this race.

LH– Mighty Park never been under pressure at a hurdle, so this might be the race for him. Quite keen on No Drama This End and prefer Skylight Hustel over Ballyfad. But no strong view.

SB – Feel like No Drama This End might drift on the day, seems to be a weakness around Paul Nicholls' horses these days. Doctor Steinberg: traders thought he’d come here rather than Albert Bartlett.

Brown Advisory

SB – Final Demand looks short against The Big Westerner. Wendigo might be nap of the meeting. Tactically made for this race, think he’s a cracking horse.

LH – Not attracted by Final Demand. Can’t have Romeo Coolio at 3m1f. This race is now ½f further and over one more fence. Koktail Divin won’t stay. Like The Big Westerner ("really good chance") and Wendigo from last year’s Albert Bartlett.

MT – Not Final Demand. WPM not happy with him all season apparently. Don’t like headgear / Kaid d’Authie. Western Fold could run well on decent ground but he’s vulnerable to an improver. Oscar’s Brother a possible, but agree that The Big Westerner & Wendigo look value.

Cross Country

MT – Favori de Champdou looks good, won Trials Day race and goes on any ground. Stumptown might still have his hard Velka Pardubicka run in his legs. Favori de Champdou looks the most likely winner of a handicap all week.

Other races

LH – Grand Annual– Henry de Bromhead (HdB) Inthepocket and possibly Downmexicoway. Jazzy Matty could defend his crown though repeat winners are rare. Libberty Hunter also on the radar.

SB – Champion Bumper – Bass Huntermight run well, and maybe Wilde's Legacy.

Thursday

Mares' Hurdle

SB – Lossiemouth will be very short if she comes here. Wodhooh short if Lossie goes Champion Hurdle.

LH – Jade de Grugy is the bet NRNB. Only runs here if Lossie goes CH. Comparable form to Wodhooh. Lossie was a bit flat in the Irish Champion Hurdle last time.

MT – Back Jade de Grugy NRNB here andfor the Mares' Chase. Gordon Elliott apparently makes Wodhooh his nap of the meeting.

Stayers’ Hurdle

LH – Fascinating race. Teahupoo too short but no worries re ground. Honesty Policy progressive but long walk form not great; Kabral du Mathan may have too much pace for 3m. Bob Olinger still has a chance even aged 11: Cheltenham and drying ground will suit. Coming round to Ma Shantou. Cannot have Ballyburn for anything: he just seems out of love with the game.

MT – Largely agree with LH. Want to take on the old guard with three young guns. Not keen on Kabral du Mathan. Honesty Policy has achieved a lot in a short time – has star potential but missed his prep race (Boyne Hurdle). Also warming to Ma Shantou, who’s still a touch of value for the Paisley Park yard of Emma Lavelle.

SB – Been too dismissive of Ma Shantou who looks playable e/w. Bob O will be thereabouts again.

Ryanair

LH – Think Fact To File runs here and Gaelic Warrior goes Gold Cup. Really impressed with FtF in the Irish Gold Cup. Whichever of FtF/GW turns up here probably wins. Banbridge has a chance but not of the calibre of FtF/GW.

MT – Banbridge clear pick behind FtF/GW. Banbridge could be e/w against the top of the market.

Other races

SB – Dawn Run Mares' Novices Hurdle – Old School Outlaw negative vibes but Gordon Elliott adamant she's fine. Bambino Fever could end up a bit of a punter banker for Thursday. La Conquiere interesting e/w at a big price.

LH – Charme de Faust probably coming here. Don’t see the argument for Bambino Fever to beat Old School Outlaw after their run last time. Good race, other players in here. OSO if trainer is happy with her.

Jack Richards

LH - Meetmebythesea “best bet of the meeting”. Trainer Ben Pauling didn’t deny he has a great chance.

MT – Regent’s Stroll if Harry Cobden rides. Almost always a top of the market race where a G1 horse emerges. Look for the class horse in the field.

LH – Kim Muir - Waterford Whispers / Uhavemeinstitches

Pertemps- Supremely West and Gowel Road may be a value bet on the day.

Friday

Gold Cup

MT – Strongly feel Inothewayurthinkin will not win. Don’t fancy Galopin Des Champs either. Gaelic Warrior might be too keen to get home. Don’t fancy Haiti Couleurs, hasn’t got form to think he can win at this level.

Grey Dawning not impossible off a quiet prep. Like Jango Baie and The Jukebox Man. Jango Baie looks like he will improve for step up in trip. Similarly TJM but trainer was targeting the King George this season.

LH – Complex race. McManus horses: cannot see Inotheway being good enough to defend his title. Spillane’s Tower may be aimed at Grand National. So could Fact To File run here?

GdC probably too old but could still be good enough to make the frame if wearing cheekpieces. GW has the talent but he’s a complicated ride. Haiti Couleurs is not good enough. Jango / TJM look the pair to focus on. Love how TJM managed to win King George in spite of the poorest jump of the principals at the last. Fastorslow not totally impossible to imagine him running a nice race at a big price.

SB – Jango Baie at Ascot this season was “a wow moment”. Envoi Allen might shorten.

Triumph

LH – No idea!

MT – Was Narciso Has an outstanding hurdler here? If so, can see why Proactif / Selma de Vary are at the top of the betting. But if not... the British horses are probably underrated. Minella Study looks some value based on his form.

SB – Backed Selma and happy to roll with that.

Albert Bartlett

SB – Kripticjim has a chance at 20/1.

LH – Klimt Madrik, chased home No Drama This End in the Challow, and King's Bucks for HdB, both have chances.

MT – Take on the top of market. Horses 5/1 or shorter 0/20 in recent years.

Two longshots: Moneygarrow looks like he wants this trip. Hipop de Loire wants decent ground. Ubetuba – Olly Murphy, ridden by Ben Sutton. Would be interesting if Sean Bowen gets the ride.

County Hurdle

MT – Karbau has good chance.

LH - Strong view from Ruby that Karbau is the one.

SB – Declan Rix made a strong case for Hello Neighbour – this is his only entry.

Hunter Chase

MT - Willitgoahead will benefit from stronger stamina test. Decent chance at about 14/1.

Mares' Chase

LH – Like Spindleberry but don’t love her prep. Dinoblue will need to improve and looks poor value. Really like Diva Luna. Ben Pauling very positive about her.

Martin Pipe

SB – Jump Allen prepped in a charity race so look for his entries.

Panel Lucky 15

SB – La Conquiere – Dawn Run, Thursday
LM – Munsif – Fred Winter, Tuesday
LH – Meetmebythesea – Jack Richards, Wednesday
MT – Idaho Sun – Supreme, Tuesday

Good luck!

2026 Imperial Cup Trends

/in /by

Staged at Sandown racecourse the Betfair Imperial Cup in a hurdle race run over 2m 1/2f.

Run just days before the start of the Cheltenham Festival -  with the race always getting added interest with a £100k bonus should the winner land any Cheltenham Festival race the following week.

In recent years that incentive has seen powerful stables like Henderson and Hobbs target the race, but it’s the Pipe yard that hold the best recent record – winning the race four times in the last 22 years and 9 times in all.

The last horses to win the Imperial Cup and then go onto land a Festival race the following week are Olympian (1993), Blowing Wind (1998) and Gaspara (2007). While the 2016 winner – Flying Angel – only just failed to land the bonus after running second in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' race.

Five of the last eight winners – Go Dante, Iceo, Malaya, London Prize and Mr Antolini – didn’t go onto run at the Cheltenham Festival, but the 2021 winner - Langer Dan - was another that only just failed to land the bonus when second in the Martin Pipe Conditional Hurdle race six days later.

The Olly Murphy runner Go Dante has won the last two runnings and will be looking for a famous three-timer in the Sandown race.

Here at GEEGEEZ we take a look back at recent winners and give you all the key stats to take into the 2026 renewal – this year run on Saturday 7th March.

Recent Imperial Cup Winners

2025 - GO DANTE (6/1)
2024 - GO DANTE (5/1 jfav)
2023 - ICEO (5/1)
2022 – SURPRISE PACKAGE (20/1)
2021 - LANGER DAN (5/1)
2020 – Abandoned
2019 – MALAYA (7/1)
2018 – MR ANTOLINI (20/1)
2017 – LONDON PRIZE (10/1)
2016 – FLYING ANGEL (9/1)
2015 – EBONY EXPRESS (33/1)
2014 – BALTIMORE ROCK (7/1)
2013 – FIRST AVENUE (20/1)
2012 – PAINTBALL (20/1)
2011 – ALARAZI (10/1)
2010 – QASPAL (11/4 fav)
2009 – DAVE’S DREAM (12/1)
2008 – ASHKAZAR (10/3 fav)
2007 – GASPARA (11/4 fav)
2006 – VICTRAM (8/1)
2005 – MEDISON (9/2 fav)
2004 – SCORNED (14/1)
2003 – KORELO (9/4 fav)
2002 - POLAR RED (6/4 fav)

Imperial Cup Betting Trends and Stats

20/22 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
19/22 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
19/22 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
19/22 – Rated 124 or higher
17/22 – Carried 10-13 or less
16/22 – Aged 6 or younger
15/22 – Had won over at least 2m1f (hurdles) before
13/22 – Carried 10-8 or less
12/22 – Winners that went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, Gaspara - Fred Winter)
12/22 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
11/22 – Finished in the top two last time out
10/22 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/22 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2), Sandown (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
7/22 – French bred
7/22 – Had raced at Sandown (hurdles) before – 3 had won there before
6/22 – Winning favourites
6/22 – Won last time out
5/22 – Won by the Pipe stable (have won it 9 times in all)
2/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 6)
2/22 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 of last 9)
2/22 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/22 – Ridden by Harry Cobden (2 of the last 6)
Go Dante (Olly Murphy/Sean Bowen) has won the last 2 runnings
Olympian (1993), Blowing Wind (1998) and Gaspara (2007) landed the Imperial Cup bonus (won a race at the Cheltenham Festival)
The average winning SP in the last 22 years is 11/1

Only 2 back-to-back winners since 1949 (Secret Service, Go Dante)

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Sat TV Trends: 28th February 2026

/in /by

We’ve had better LIVE Saturday ITV race days, but with the Cheltenham Festival on the horizon then it’s no surprise the quality is slightly down – Newbury, Kelso and Doncaster provide the LIVE ITV action this week, and, as always, here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the races covered from a trends and stats angle.

NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

3:15 – BetVictor Veterans´ Handicap Chase (Qualifier) (Leg 2 of Veterans´ Chase Series) Cl2 3m2f110y ITV

14/15 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
13/15 – Won over at least 3m (chase)
10/15 – Favourites unplaced
8/15 – Aged 10 years-old
8/15 – Carried 11-4 or more in weight
7/15 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
3/15 – Won their last race
1/15 – Winning favourites (none in the last 9)
6 of the last 10 winners carried 11st or less
Trainer David Dennis won the race in 2022 and 2023
Trainer David Pipe won the race in 2015 and 2016
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 and 2017
Sam Brown (100/30) won this race in 2025
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewals is 15/2

3.45 – BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f ITV

19/21 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
18/21 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
18/21 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
18/21 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
17/21 – Won over this trip (2m4f) previously (or further)
16/21 – Raced at Newbury (hurdles or fences) previously
15/21 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
14/21 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
13/21 – Officially rated 139 or higher
12/21 – Favourites placed
9/21 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (8 of the last 16)
9/21 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
9/21 – Won by a French-bred horse
8/21 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
8/21 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
6/21 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/21 – Favourites to win (1 joint)
3/21 – Won by the Pipe yard
2/21 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/21 – Won their last race
Heltenham won this race in 2024
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 8/1
No winning favourite in the last 8 runnings
15 of the last 17 winners aged between 6-8
12 of the last 16 winners aged 7 or 8 (6 of the last 8)
Note: The 2006 renewal was a dead-heat

DONCASTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

1:25 – Virgin Bet A Good Bet Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Listed Race) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) 3m 1/2f ITV

11/12 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
10/12 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
10/12- Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
8/12– Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/12 – Favourites placed in the top 2
8/12 – Irish bred
5/12 - Won by the favourite (1 co-fav)
6 of the last 10 winners aged 6 (4 of last 5)
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 10/1

2:00 – Virgin Bet Supports Safe Gambling Handicap Chase Cl2 2m90y ITV

14/14 – Priced 15/2 or shorter
10/14 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
8/14 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
4/14 – Raced at Musselburgh last time out
3/14 - Ridding by a claiming jockey
3/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/14 – Trained by Brian Ellison
10 of the last 13 winners carried 10st 11lbs or more
The last 10 winners returned 11/2 or shorter
7 of the last 9 winners aged 6-9
Just one winning favourite (joint) in the last 9
Brookie (11/2) won this in 2025
Homme Public (3/1) won the race in 2024
Calico (11/4 jfav) won the race in 2023
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1

2:35 – Virgin Bet Grimthorpe Chase (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 3m2f ITV

20/21 – Aged 8 or older
20/21 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
17/21 – Won no more than 4 times over fences
17/21 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
16/21 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
16/21 – Aged 9 or older
14/21 – Rated 132 or less
12/21 – From the top 3 in the betting
12/21 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
12/21 – Irish bred
10/21 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/21 – Raced over fences at Doncaster before (4 winners)
7/21 – Won their last race
4/21 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners)
2/21 – Winning Favourites
Moroder won the race in 2023 and 2025 (Both ridden by James Best)
Trainer Kim Bailey has won the race 3 times (2 since 2016)
The average wining SP in the last 9 runnings is 12/1
Trainer Seamus Mullins is 3-4 (75%) with his chasers at the track – plus has won 2 of the last 3
Jockeys Ben Godfrey and Charlie Maggs both have 50% SR’s at the track over fences

 

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The 2026 Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide

£4 Discount With Promo Code: RTCFBG26

Written by Paul Ferguson and Guest Authors, is the complete guide to The Festival, with every fact, stat and trend covered to help you make the most informed bets throughout the best week of the year.

Discount (£4) applies to both print and digital bundle.

Grab Your £4 Discount Here

 

 

 

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KELSO HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

1:10 bet365 Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl3 (5yo+ 0-130) 2m1f ITV

Just 2 previous runnings
Trainers Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero have a 29% SR with their chasers at the track
Trainers Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore have a 27% SR with their chasers at the track
Jockey Brian Hughes has a 24% SR riding over fences at Kelso

1:40 – bet365 Premier Chase (Listed Race) (GBB Race) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m 7 1/2f) ITV

11/12 – Didn’t win last time out
10/12 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/12 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
9/12 – Won between 1-3 times over fences
8/12 – Had run at the course before
8/12 – Aged 9 or older
8/12 – Irish bred
8/12 – Won over 3m plus in the past
7/12 – Placed 4th or better last time out
5/12 – Rated between 132-141 (inc)
4/12 – Won by jockey Brian Hughes (4 of the last 10)
4/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Ran at Haydock last time out
2/12 – Trained by Sandy Thomson
7 of the last 9 winners aged 8 or 9
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 36% SR with his chasers at the track
Trainers Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero have a 29% SR with their chasers at the track
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/2

2:15 – bet365 Premier Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 (4 yo+) 2m2f ITV

16/17 – Aged 7 or younger
16/17 – Favourites placed in the top three
15/17 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
15/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/17 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
10/17 – Had won at least twice over hurdles before
10/17 – Won last time out
8/17 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/17 – Irish bred
7/17 – Had raced at Kelso
4/17 – Winning favourite
3/17– Ran at Musselburgh last time out
3/17 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
8 of the last 10 winners aged 5 or 6 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/2
Trainer Fergal O’Brien has a 33% record with their hurdlers at the track

2:55 – bet365 Morebattle Hurdle (Handicap Hurdle) (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m ITV

14/14 – Had run in the last 3 months
12/14 – Won at least twice over hurdles before
10/14 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
9/14 – Never run at the track before
8/14 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
8/14 – Irish bred
6/14 – Rated between 138-146
6/14 – Won last time out
5/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/14– Ridden by Brian Hughes
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Richards
2/14 – Trained by Ewan Whillans
Cracking Rhapsody has won the last 2 runnings (9/1 and 12/1)
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/1

3:30 – bet365 Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV

Just 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Aged 6-8
4/5 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
4/5 – Carried 10-4 or less (3 of last 4)
3/5 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
3/5 – Aged 6 years-old
2/5 – Winning favourites
Bold Light (17/2) won this race in 2025
Serious Operator (7/2) won the race in 2024
Lucinda Russell has trained the last 2 winners
Paul Nicholls trained the winner in 2021 (Flash Collonges)
Nicky Richards trained the winner in 2022 (Famous Bridge)
Dan Skelton trained the winner in 2023 (Santos Blue)
Trainer Fergal O’Brien has a 33% record with their hurdlers at the track
Trainers Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero have a 38% SR with their chasers at the track

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2026 Greatwood Gold Cup Trends

/in , /by

This Saturday’s Grade 3 Greatwood Gold Cup is a Handicap Chase staged at Newbury racecourse and is always a hotly-contested event. The race is run over a distance of 2m4f and is currently sponsored by BetVictor, who are also supporting the Greatwood charity.

It was first run in 2004 and since then has been dominated by top UK National Hunt trainer Paul Nicholls – who has won the race a staggering nine times - anything he runs should, therefore, be respected.

Here at GeeGeez, we look back at recent winners of the race and give you all the key trends to take into the 2026 renewal – this year run on Saturday 28th February – for example, did you know 18 of the last 21 winners were aged 8 or younger?

Recent Greatwood Gold Cup Chase Winners

2025 - BOOSTER BOB (16/1)
2024 - HELTENHAM (17/2)
2023 - THE BIG BITE (12/1)
2022 – PAINT THE DREAM (8/1)
2021 - UMBRIGADO (13/2)
2020 - No Race
2019 – SAN BENEDETO  (11/1)
2018 – Abandoned
2017 – THOMAS CRAPPER (8/1)
2016 – SAMETEGAL (7/1)
2015 – SOUND INVESTMENT (7/2 fav)
2014 – SHANGANI (3/1 fav)
2013 – PACHA Du POLDER (18/1)
2012 – AERIAL (10/3 fav)
2011 – FINE PARCHMENT (12/1)
2010 – BIG FELLA THANKS (8/1)
2009 – NEW LITTLE BRIC (14/1)
2008 – NATAL (3/1 jfav)
2007 – MADISON du BERLAIS (12/1)
2006 – HORUS (22/1) dead-heat
2006 – CORNISH SET (5/1 fav) dead-heat
2005 – SUPREME PRINCE (7/1)
2004 – ISIO (11/2)

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Greatwood Gold Cup Chase Betting Trends

19/21 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
18/21 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
18/21 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
18/21 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
17/21 – Won over this trip (2m4f) previously (or further)
16/21 – Raced at Newbury (hurdles or fences) previously
15/21 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
14/21 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
13/21 – Officially rated 139 or higher
12/21 – Favourites placed
9/21 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (8 of the last 16)
9/21 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
9/21 – Won by a French-bred horse
8/21 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
8/21 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
6/21 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/21 – Favourites to win (1 joint)
3/21 – Won by the Pipe yard
2/21 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/21 – Won their last race
Heltenham won this race in 2024
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 8/1
No winning favourite in the last 8 runnings
15 of the last 17 winners aged between 6-8
12 of the last 16 winners aged 7 or 8 (6 of the last 8)
Note: The 2006 renewal was a dead-heat

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Sat TV Trends: 21st Feb 2026

/in /by

This weekend the ITV cameras head to Kempton, with the Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase their feature contest, while they are also at Lingfield for the Winter Derby and at Newcastle for their Eider Chase.

Here at GeeGeez we are on hand with all the key trends and stats for the LIVE ITV  races.

Kempton Park Horse Racing Trends (ITV)

1:10 - Ladbrokes 'New Horse Racing Bet Builder' Handicap Hurdle Cl3 (4yo+ 0-140) 2m5f ITV4

10/10 – Aged between 5-7
7/10 – Returned 5/1 or shorter
7/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/10 – Carried 11-1 or more
7/10 – Won 1-2 times hurdles
7/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Aged 6 or 7
5/10 – Winning distance – neck
5/10 – Aged 6 years-old
4/10 – Won over hurdles at Kempton
4/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
2/10 – Trained by Gary Moore (2 of the last 3)
2/10 – Ridden by Caoilin Quinn (2 of the last 3)
2025: Saint Alapolino (5/1)

1:45 – Ladbrokes Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

18/20 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
17/20 - Came from the top 3 in the betting
17/20 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
17/20 – Had won no more than once over hurdles in the UK
15/20 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
15/20 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
14/20 – Placed favourites
13/20 – Winners that went onto run in the Triumph Hurdle (3 winners)
12/20– Won carrying either a 4lb or 7lb penalty
11/20 – Won last time out
10/20 – Winning favourites
9/20 – French bred
6/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (6 in total)
5/20 – Irish bred
4/20 – Trained by Alan King (won 3 of last 9 runnings)
4/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (5 in total)
3/20 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Triumph Hurdle
Zarkandar, Soldatino and Penzance went onto land that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
2025: Mambonumberfive (10/1)

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park

2:25 – Ladbrokes Pendil Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

18/20 – French or Irish bred
16/20 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
15/20 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
15/20 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
14/20 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
14/20 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
13/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (won 9 of the last 15 and 14 in total)
12/20 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
10/20 – Winning favourites
8/20 – Won last time out
Harry Cobden has ridden 4 of the last 5 winners
Sam Twiston-Davies has ridden 2 of the last 11 winners
4 of the last 8 winners owned by Johnny de la Hey
Nicky Henderson has won the race 5 times (but the most recent was in 2004)
Captain Chris was the last winner to land the Arkle Challenge Trophy (2011)
2025: Rubaud (5/4 fav)

3:00 – Ladbrokes Dovecote Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

18/19 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
18/19 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
16/19 – Returned a single-figure price in the betting
16/19 – Won between 0-2 times over hurdles before
16/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/19 – Had never raced over hurdles at Kempton before
12/19 – Placed favourites
11/19 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old (but last 11 aged 5 or 6)
11/19 – Won last time out
7/19 – French bred
6/19 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/19 – Winning favourites
4/19 – Trained by Alan King
4/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of the last 11) (8 in total)
4/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 7)
2/19 – Trained by Chris Gordon (2 of the last 6)
The last 11 winners aged 5 or 6 years-old
The last 11 winners returned 6/1 or shorter (9 returned 4/1 or shorter)
2025: Tripoli Flyer (5/2)

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park

3:35 – Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ITV

20/23 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
20/23 – Aged 9 or younger
17/23 – Rated 139 or higher
17/23 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
17/23 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
16/23 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
15/23 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
15/23 – Came from the top 4 in the betting
14/23 – Won a Class 2 chase or better before
13/23 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/23 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
12/23 – Rated between 139 and 150
9/23 – Carried 11-5 or more
9/23 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
8/23 – Won last time out
8/23 – Aged 8 years-old
7/23 – French bred
5/23 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
5/23 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
5/23 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner)
3/23 – Trained by Tom George
3/23 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/23 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/23 – Trained by the Sam Thomas yard (won 2 of the last 3)
2/23 – Trained by Neil Mulholland (won 2 of the last 9)
2/23 – Trained by the Tizzard yard (won 2 of the last 10)
2/23 – Trained by the Philip Hobbs yard (won it 4 times in all)
2/23 – Ran in the King George VI Chase last time out
7 of the last 10 winners carried 10-8 or less
The average winning SP in the last 23 runnings is 9/1
2025: Katate Dori (11/2)
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown Park

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Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ITV)

2:43 – Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places Eider Handicap Chase Cl2 4m1f ITV4

20/21 – Had won over at least 3m before
19/21 – Aged 10 or younger
17/21 – Carried 10-13 or more
17/21 – Priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting
17/21 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
15/21 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
15/21 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
14/21 – Winners came from the top 3 in the betting
14/21 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
13/21 – Officially rated between 131-140
13/21 – Irish-bred
11/21 – Placed favourites
7/21 – Won last time out
5/21 – Won over 3m4f or further before
4/21 – Winning favourites
3/21 – Carried 11-12 in weight
2/21 – Trained by Brian Ellison (2 of the last 5)
2/21 - Trained by Christian Williams (2 of the last 4)
2/21 – Irish-trained winners
7 of the last 10 winners aged 9 years-old
6 of the last 8 winners 11st+
The average winning SP in the last 21 runnings is 10/1
2025: Knockanore (16/1)

Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ITV) 

1:25 – Midnite Hever Sprint Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f6y ITV4

14/18 – Rated 96+
14/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/18 – Raced 6 weeks or longer ago
12/18 – Placed favs
11/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/18 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
6/18 – Mare winners
5/18 – Winning favourites (2 in the last 11)
4/18 – US bred
1/18 – Winners from stall 1
4 of the last 10 winners from stall 2
8 of the last 10 winners from stalls 1-5
7 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 2 (4) or 5 (3)
10 of the last 11 winners ALL aged between 4-6
Diligent Harry won the race in 2024
2025: Clarendon House (13/2)

Note: Previous runnings from 2023 back were staged at Lingfield

2:00 – Midnite Winter Derby Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f ITV4

19/23 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or shorter
19/23 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
19/23 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
18/23 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
17/23 – Drawn in stall 7 or less
17/23 – Came from the top 3 in the market
16/23 – Had raced at either Lingfield (12) or Kempton (4) last time out
15/23 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
14/23 – Placed in their last race
13/23 – Winning distance – less than a length
12/23 – Won their last race
10/23– Won at least 6 times previously
10/23 – Winning favourites
4/23 – Trained by John Gosden (4 of the last 7 runnings)
Just 2 of the last 19 Winter Derby Trial winners have gone onto win the Winter Derby
The average winning SP in the 23 renewals is 5/1
Military Order won the race in 2024
2025: Royal Champion (6/4 jfav
Note: Previous runnings from 2023 back were staged at Lingfield

 

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2026 Eider Chase Trends

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The Eider Chase is run over a gruelling 4m1f trip at Newcastle racecourse and is a handicap race that is seen as another key Grand National trial ahead of the big Liverpool race the following month. In recent years the David Pipe-trained Comply Or Die (2008) is the most recent example of the winner of this race going onto land the Merseyside Marathon that same season.

Did you know – 19 of the last 21 winners were aged 10 or younger, while 13 of the last 21 successful horses were Irish bred.

We take a look back at recent winners and give you all the key trends and stats to take into the 2026 renewal – this year run on Saturday 221st February.

Recent Eider Chase Winners

2025 - KNOCKANORE (16/1)
2024 - ANGLERS CRAG (11/2)
2023 - KITTY'S LIGHT (7/4 fav)
2022 – WIN MY WINGS (11/2 fav)
2021 - SAMS ADVENTURE (15/2)
2020 – No Race
2019 – CROSSPARK (12/1)
2018 – BAYWING (8/1)
2017 – MYSTEREE (10/1)
2016 – ROCKING BLUES  (8/1)
2015 – MILBOROUGH (18/1)
2014 – WYCK HILL (9/1)
2013 – No Race
2012 – PORTRAIT KING (11/4 fav)
2011 – COMPANERO (16/1)
2010 – No Race
2009 – MERIGO (5/1)
2008 – COMPLY OR DIE (11/1)
2007 – NIL DESPERANDUM (6/1)
2006 – PHILSON RUN (10/1)
2005 – No Race
2004 – TYNEANDTHYNEAGAIN (28/1)
2003 – No Race
2002 – THIS IS SERIOUS (4/1 fav)
2001 – NARROW WATER (6/1)
2000 - SCOTTON GREEN (8/1)

Eider Chase Betting Trends

20/21 – Had won over at least 3m before
19/21 – Aged 10 or younger
17/21 – Carried 10-13 or more
17/21 – Priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting
17/21 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
15/21 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
15/21 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
14/21 – Winners came from the top 3 in the betting
14/21 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
13/21 – Officially rated between 131-140
13/21 – Irish-bred
11/21 – Placed favourites
7/21 – Won last time out
5/21 – Won over 3m4f or further before
4/21 – Winning favourites
3/21 – Carried 11-12 in weight
2/21 – Trained by Brian Ellison (2 of the last 5)
2/21 – Irish-trained winners
7 of the last 10 winners aged 9 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 21 runnings is 10/1

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2026 Winter Derby Trends

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First run in 1998, the Winter Derby is now staged at Southwell racecourse and run on their All Weather track, having been switched from Lingfield.

The 1m3f contest is also now a Group 3 race after being upgraded from Listed class back in 2006.

In recent years, a 4 year-old has won the race 8 times in the last 17 runnings, while it could pay to concentrate on horses aged 6 or younger as this age group has been responsible for 18 of the last 23 winners – but Royal Champion defied this stat in 2025 - winning aged 7.

Here at GEEGEEZ we look back at the recent winners and gives you all the key stats to take in the 2026 renewal – this year run on Saturday 21st February 2025.

Recent Winter Derby Winners

2025 - ROYAL CHAMPION (5/6 fav)
2024 - MILITARY ORDER (9/4)
2023 - LORD NORTH (8/11 fav)
2022 – ALENQUER (11/4)
2021 - FOREST OF DEAN (10/3)
2020 – DUBAI WARRIOR (13/8)
2019 – WISSAHICKON (1/4 fav)
2018 – MASTER THE WORLD (16/1)
2017 – CONVEY (11/2)
2016 – GRENDISAR (11/4)
2015 – TRYSTER (3/1 fav)
2014 – ROBIN HOODS BAY (10/1)
2013 – FARRAAJ (6/4 fav)
2012 – PREMIO LOCO (5/1)
2011 – NIDEEB (9/4 fav)
2010 – TRANQUIL TIGER (11/8 fav)
2009 – SCINTILLO (8/1)
2008 – HATTAN (14/1)
2007 – GENTLEMAN’S DEAL (4/1 jfav)
2006 – SRI DIAMOND (8/1)
2005 – ECCENTRIC (7/2)
2004 – CALUKI (14/1)
2003 – PARASOL (5/2 jfav)

Winter Derby Betting Trends

19/23 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or shorter
19/23 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
19/23 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
18/23 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
17/23 – Drawn in stall 7 or less
17/23 – Came from the top 3 in the market
16/23 – Had raced at either Lingfield (12) or Kempton (4) last time out
15/23 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
14/23 – Placed in their last race
13/23 – Winning distance – less than a length
12/23 – Won their last race
10/23– Won at least 6 times previously
10/23 – Winning favourites
4/23 – Trained by John Gosden (4 of the last 7 runnings)
Just 2 of the last 19 Winter Derby Trial winners have gone onto win the Winter Derby
The average winning SP in the 23 renewals is 5/1
Military Order won the race in 2024

Note: Run at Lingfield from 2023 back & run at Southwell in 2025 

 

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2026 Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase Trends

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The Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase was first run back in 1988 and was staged as the Racing Post Chase until 2011 and then the Racing Plus Chase in 2012 & 2013. Leading bookmaker – BetBright – took over the sponsorship from 2014 till 2017.

In 2020 we had another new backer of the race with leading bookmaker Betway taking over, while in 2021 the race was run as the Close Brothers Chase.

Once again, the baton was handed over to another new sponsor as leading bookmaker - Coral - begin their association with the race in 2022 and yet again in 2024 with Ladbrokes the current backers.

This Grade Three handicap is run over a distance of 3m at Kempton Park racecourse the contest is often described as another Grand National trial, with two horses – Rhyme ‘n’ Reason and Rough Quest – landing both races in the same season, while it could pay to know that both those horses also contested the Cheltenham Gold Cup that season.

The Sam Thomas-trained Katate Dori won the was in 2025 and looks set to run again in 2026.

Here at GeeGeez, we take a look back at recent winners of the Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase and gives you the key stats to look out for ahead of the 2026 renewal – this year run on Saturday 21st February.

Recent Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase Winners

2025 - KATATE DORI (11/2)
2024 - FORWARD PLAN (15/2)
2023 – OUR POWER (11/2)
2022 – CAP DU NORD (13/2)
2021 - CLONDAW CASTLE (17/2)
2020 – MISTER MALARKY (9/1)
2019 - WALT (14/1)
2018 – MASTER DEE (8/1)
2017 – PILGRIMS BAY (25/1)
2016 – THEATRE GUIDE (6/1)
2015 – ROCKY CREEK (8/1)
2014 – BALLY LEGEND (28/1)
2013 – OPENING BATSMAN (12/1)
2012 – NACARAT (9/2)
2011 – QUINZ (8/1)
2010 – RAZOR ROYALE (11/1)
2009 – NACARAT (10/1)
2008 – GUNGADU (4/1 fav)
2007 – SIMON (11/2)
2006 – INNOX (8/1)
2005 – FARMER JACK (5/1)
2004 – MARLBOROUGH (8/1)
2003 – LA LANDIERE (5/1 jfav)

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Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase Betting Trends

20/23 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
20/23 – Aged 9 or younger
17/23 – Rated 139 or higher
17/23 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
17/23 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
16/23 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
15/23 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
15/23 – Came from the top 4 in the betting
14/23 – Won a Class 2 chase or better before
13/23 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/23 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
12/23 – Rated between 139 and 150
9/23 – Carried 11-5 or more
9/23 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
8/23 – Won last time out
8/23 – Aged 8 years-old
7/23 – French bred
5/23 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
5/23 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
5/23 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner)
3/23 – Trained by Tom George
3/23 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/23 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/23 – Trained by Neil Mulholland (won 2 of the last 9)
2/23 – Trained by the Tizzard yard (won 2 of the last 10)
2/23 – Trained by the Philip Hobbs yard (won it 4 times in all)
2/23 – Ran in the King George VI Chase last time out
The average winning SP in the last 23 runnings is 9/1
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown Park

 

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Saturday TV Trends: 14th Feb 2026

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Another jam-packed Saturday of racing for the ITV horse racing team as they head to Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton to take in eight races across the three venues.

So, to help narrow down the fields, and point you in the direction of a few winners, then we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle – we hope they help!

ASCOT HORSE RACING TRENDS (SkySportsRacing/ITV)

1:15 – Betfair Novices’ Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+) 2m3 1/2f ITV

10/10 – Won between 0-2 times over hurdles
9/10 – Returned 7/1 or less
9/10 – Aged 6 or younger
9/10 – Had between 1-4 hurdles runs
9/10 – Favourites finished in the top 3
8/10 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles
8/10 – Top 3 finish last time out
7/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/10 – Aged 6 years-old
5/10 – Irish bred
4/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Winning favourite
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

1:50 – Injured Jockeys Fund Ambassadors Programme Reynoldstown Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 3m ITV

23/23 – Priced 17/2 or shorter in the betting
20/23 – Had run within the last 7 weeks
18/23 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
18/23 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences previously
18/23 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/23 – Won last time out
13/23 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/23 – Irish bred
11/23 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (2 winners)
9/23 – Winners that went onto finish 5th or better in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase
9/23 – Placed favourites
7/23 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/23 – Trained by the Tizzard yard (4 of the last 7)
3/23 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/23 - Won by the Pipe Stable (2 of the last 11)
3/23 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/23 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/23 – Trained by Rebecca Curtis (2 of last 12)
Just one winning favourite in last 10 (none in last 7)
The last 10 winners aged between 6-8
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

2:25 – Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (GBB Race) (4yo+) 2m3 1/2f ITV

18/20 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
16/20 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
13/20 – Carried 10-13 or less
13/20 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/20 – Placed favourites
12/20 – Winning distance – 2 or less
12/20 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
12/20 – Had won over 2m4f or further before
9/20 – Winners that went onto race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
9/20 – Priced 8/1 or bigger
9/20 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/20 – Irish bred
7/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/20 – Had run at Ascot over hurdles before                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        6/20 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
3/20 – Raced at Sandown last time out
3/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 7)
2/20 – Trained by Dr Richard Newland
2/20 – Trained by Harry Fry (2 of the last 9)
5 of the last 10 winners aged 6
8 of the last 10 winners aged 6-8
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

3:00 – Betfair Swinley Handicap Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m 80y ITV

15/15 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Aged 8 or older
13/15 – Finished 5th or better last time out
12/15 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
9/15 – Had raced at Ascot (fences) before
9/15 – Raced at either Ascot (4) or Cheltenham (5) last time out
8/15 – Aged in double-figures
7/15 – Won just 1 or 2 chase races previously
7/15 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
7/15 – Irish bred
5/15 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
5/15 – Winning distance head or shorter
3/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Trained by Venetia Williams (3 of the last 9)
2/15 – Winning Favourites (none in last 10)
8 of the last 13 winners carried 11-0 or more
9 of the last 10 winners aged 8 to 10
Threeunderthrufive won the race in 2024 and 2nd in 2025

3:35 - Betfair Ascot Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

22/23 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
22/23– Priced at 15/2 or shorter in the market
21/23 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
19/23 – Officially rated 157 or higher
18/23 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
18/23 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
17/23 – Winners that didn’t win their next start
15/23 – Favourites placed
15/23 – Priced 2/1 or shorter in the market
13/23 – Winning favourites
11/23 – Won between 1-4 times over fences previously
11/23 – Won over fences at Ascot previously
9/23 – Won their last race
8/23 – Unplaced in their latest race
7/23 – Raced at Kempton (King George) last time out
6/23 – Winners that ran in that season’s Ryanair Chase (2 winners, Cue Card & Riverside Theatre) later that year
5/23– Trained by Paul Nicholls (4 of the last 10) (6 in total)
3/23 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/23 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/23 – Trained by Alan King
14 of the last 19 winners returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
Jockey Harry Cobden has won the race three times (3 of the last 7)
Note: The 2005 & 2006 - Run at Lingfield Park
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings 9/4

HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)

2:05 – ZYN Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m6f177y ITV

21/23 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
18/23 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
17/23 – Had won over at least 3m+ (hurdles) previously
15/23 – Placed favourites
15/23 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
15/23 – Aged 8 or younger
15/23 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
14/23 – Rated 145 or higher
13/23 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/23 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
11/23 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/23– Had run at Haydock before
9/23 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (no winners)
8/23 – French-bred
4/23 – Ran at Ascot last time out
4/23 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/23 – Winning favourites (1 in last 10)
1/23 – Winners that went onto win the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival
Trainer Dan Skelton won the race last year
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1
Note: The 2003, 2004, 2005 - Run at Kempton Park

2:40 – Haydock Park Albert Barlett Presitge Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race) CL1 (5yo+) 3m 1/2f ITV

10/10 – Yet to race at Haydock (hurdles)
9/10 – Won 1-2 times over hurdles
9/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
9/10 – Won over at least 2m 3 1/2f
9/10 – Aged 6 or 7
9/10 – First or second last time out
7/10 – Favourites placed
6/10 – Aged 6
6/10 – Won last time out
6/10 – Irish bred
3/10 – Winning favourite
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

3.15 – William Hill Half A Million Grand National Trial (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f ITV

22/23 – UK-based trained winners
21/23 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before
20/23– Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
19/23 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
18/23 – Rated 135 or higher
18/23 – Aged 10 or younger
17/23 – Finished in the top three last time out
16/23 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) before
15/23 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
15/23 – Aged 9 or younger
14/23 – Finished in the top two last time out
13/23 – Carried 11-0 or less
11/23 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/23 – Unplaced favourites
9/23 – Irish-bred winners
8/23 – Won last time out
8/23 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
6/23 – Ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out
4/23 – Won with 11-12 in weight
4/23 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
4/23 – Winning favourites
3/23 – Finished 1st or 2nd in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/23 – Trained by Venetia Williams (2 of the last 8)
9 of the last 11 winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
5 of the last 11 winners returned 8/1 in the betting
17 of the last 18 winners were aged between 8-11 years-old
5 of the last 10 winners aged 8
No horse has won this race and gone onto win the Aintree Grand National
Red Rum and Party Politics have both races on their CV's - but in different campaigns
Suny Bay won the 'so-called' trial in 1997 and was runner-up at Aintree.
Neptune Collonges finished second in the Haydock Trial in 2012 before winning the Grand National later that season.
Freebooter and Sundew are others to win both races (trial and Aintree) just in different seasons

WINCANTON HORSE RACING TRENDS (RACINGTV/ITV)

1:35 – BetMGM Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 1m7f65y ITV

22/22 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
21/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
20/22 – Aged 7 or younger
20/22 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
20/22 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
20/22 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
15/22 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
15/22 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle (2 winners Katchit & Golden Ace 2025)
14/22 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
12/22 – Rated 155 or higher
11/22 – Winning favourites
9/22 – Won last time out
8/22– Raced at Sandown last time out
4/22 – Trained by Alan King
3/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
1/22 – Winners that went onto win the Stayers’ Hurdle (Inglis Drever)
Golden Ace (6/5 fav) won this race in 2025

 

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2026 Ascot Chase Trends

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The Grade One Betfair Ascot Chase is staged at Ascot raceourse every February and run over a distance of 2m5 ½f with 17 fences to tackle.

First run in 1995 the race has been won by some well-known names – including One Man, Monet’s Garden, Voy Por Ustedes, Kauto Star and Riverside Theatre, who landed the prize in 2011 & 2012, while Cue Card took the 2013 running before going on win the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

In more recent years, the likes of Silviniaco Conti (2016), Waiting Patiently (2018) and the top-rated chaser in the UK – Cyrname (2019) – have graced the hall-of-fame, while in 2023, the Nicky Henderson-trained Shishkin bounced back to form to win and Pic D'Orhy has won the the race for the Paul Nicholls yard for the last two seasons and is back for more in 2026.

Here at GeeGeez we look back at recent winners and gives you the key stats to take into the 2026 renewal – this year staged on 14th February.

Recent Ascot Chase Winners

2025 - PIC D'ORHY (9/5)
2024 - PIC D'ORHY (13/8)
2023 – SHISHKIN (2/1)
2022 – FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES (9/4 fav)
2021 - DASHEL DRASHER (4/1)
2020 – RIDERS ONTHE STORM (7/2)
2019 – CYRNAME (3/1)
2018 – WAITING PATIENTLY (2/1 fav)
2017 – CUE CARD (4/9 fav)
2016 – SILVINIACO CONTI (2/1 fav)
2015 – BALDER SUCCES (4/1)
2014 – CAPTAIN CHRIS (8/11 fav)
2013 – CUE CARD (15/8 fav)
2012 – RIVERSIDE THEATRE (13/8 fav)
2011 – RIVERSIDE THEATRE (11/10 fav)
2010 – MONET’S GARDEN (11/2)
2009 – VOY POR USTEDES (6/5 fav)
2008 – KAUTO STAR (4/11 fav)
2007 – MONET’S GARDEN (11/10 fav)
2006 – OUR VIC (2/1 fav)
2005 - IT TAKES TIME (14/1)
2004 – HAND INN HAND (15/2)
2003 – TIUTCHEV (15/8 fav)

Ascot Chase Betting Trends

22/23 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
22/23– Priced at 15/2 or shorter in the market
21/23 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
19/23 – Officially rated 157 or higher
18/23 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
18/23 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
17/23 – Winners that didn’t win their next start
15/23 – Favourites placed
15/23 – Priced 2/1 or shorter in the market
13/23 – Winning favourites
11/23 – Won between 1-4 times over fences previously
11/23 – Won over fences at Ascot previously
9/23 – Won their last race
8/23 – Unplaced in their latest race
7/23 – Raced at Kempton (King George) last time out
6/23 – Winners that ran in that season’s Ryanair Chase (2 winners, Cue Card & Riverside Theatre) later that year
5/23– Trained by Paul Nicholls (4 of the last 10) (6 in total)
3/23 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/23 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/23 – Trained by Alan King
14 of the last 19 winners returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
Jockey Harry Cobden has won the race three times (3 of the last 7)
Note: The 2005 & 2006 - Run at Lingfield Park

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Saturday TV Trends: 7th Feb 2026

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We’ve plenty more Cheltenham Festival clues on offer this weekend with cracking cards at both Newbury and Warwick.

The Denman Chase, William Hill Hurdle and William Hill Game Spirit are the feature races at Newbury, while the ITV cameras also head to Warwick to take in three more races that include the Kingmaker Novices' Chase.

As always, we've got all the ITV LIVE races covered for you key trends.

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1:35 – William Hill Each Way Extra Handicap Hurdle (Challenger Stayers’ Hurdle Series Qualifier) Cl3 3m52y ITV

18/20 – Had run within the last 10 weeks
16/20 – Had won no more than 3 times over hurdles before
15/20 – Carried 10-13 or more
15/20 – Had won over at least 2 ½ miles (hurdles) before
15/20 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
13/20 – Aged 7 or younger
13/20 – Carried 11-0 or more
11/20 – Unplaced last time out
11/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/20 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/20 – Had run over hurdles at Newbury before (1 winner)
7/20 – Aged 7 years-old
3/20 – French bred
3/20 – Won last time out
3/20 – Winning favourites (1 in last 9)
3/20 – Raced at Haydock last time out
2/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/20 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/20 – Trained by Alan King
7 of the last 8 winners aged 6-8
5 of the last 10 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1

2:10 – William Hill Denman Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV

18/22 – Rated 150+
18/22 – Aged 9 or younger
17/22 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
17/22 – Had won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before
17/22 – Placed favourites
17/22 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
16/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/22 – Aged 8 or younger
13/22 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
12/22 – Raced at either Cheltenham or Kempton last time out
11/22 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (4 winners)
10/22 – Winning favourites
9/22 – Irish bred
8/22 – Won last time out
8/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (10 wins in total)
8/22 – French bred
6/22 – Winning distance – ¾ length or less
5/22 – Returned a double-figure price
4/22 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman, Kauto Star & Native River)
4/22 – Trained by the Tizzard yard
2/22 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/22 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (3 in total)
8 of the last 19 winners were aged 7 years-old
Just one winner aged 11+ since 2000
Venetia Williams has won 2 of the last 10
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

2:45 – William Hill Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m92y ITV

18/20 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
17/20 – Placed favourites
16/20 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (3 winners)
16/20 – Aged 8 or younger
15/20 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
15/20 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
14/20 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/20 – Had raced at Newbury (fences) before (6 winners)
11/20 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
11/20 – Winning favourites
9/20 – Won last time out
9/20 – French bred
6/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/20 – Ran at Sandown last time out
5/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/20 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Champion Chase
2/20 – Trained by Alan King (2 of the last 5)
2/20 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Arkle Chase
Master Chewy won the race in 2025 (Libberty Hunter 2nd)
Since 1953 only 2 winners aged 5 (Don’t Be Shy, 2006, Master Minded, 2008)

Note: The 2019 running was staged at Ascot

3:20 – William Hill Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV

23/23 – Carried 11-8 or less in weight
22/23 – Aged 7 or younger
20/23 – Rated 130 or higher
20/23 – Had raced within the last 9 weeks
19/23 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
18/23 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
18/23 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
18/23 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
18/23 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
17/23 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
14/23 – Placed favourites
13/23 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
12/23 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
10/23 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/23 – Irish bred
8/23 - Won last time out
8/23 – Aged 5 years-old (including 8 of last 19)
7/23 – Winning favourites
5/23 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
5/23 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 7 times in all)
4/23 – Owned by JP McManus (including last two years)
3/23 – Trained by Gary Moore
3/23 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 of the last 12)
2/23 - Trained by Jonjo O’Neill (2 of the last 16)
2/23 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 13)
2/23 - Raced at Leopardstown last time out
1/23 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
28 of the last 29 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The last 5 winners aged 6 or 7
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1

 

WARWICK Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1:15 – Get The Best Odds With Oddschecker Warwick Mares’ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV

9/10 – Aged 6 or 7 years old
9/10 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
8/10 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
7/10 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
5/10 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
5/10 – Winning favourites (1 co-fav)
5/10 – Irish bred
5/10 – Had run at Warwick before
4/10 – Rated between 140 and 149
Trainer Nicky Henderson has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
Trainer Willie Mullins has won 2 of the last 11 runnings

1:50 – Bet Smarter With Oddschecker Kingmaker Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

12/13 – Aged 7 or younger
12/13 – Won over 2m fences before
11/13 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
9/13 – Had won no more than twice (fences) in the UK
9/13 – Won last time out
8/13 – Aged 5 or 7 years-old
8/13 – Winning favourites
6/13 – Rated between 137-147
3/13 – Unplaced favs
4 of the last 9 winners have been 6 year-olds
Last 4 winners have been odds-on
8 of the last 9 winners aged between 5-7
Dan Skelton (Harry Skelton) have won 2 of the last 4 runnings
Note: 2009 renewal was at Sandown and 2024 meeting was called off

2:25 – Unibet Middle Distance Series Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Class 2) (9yo+ 0-150) 2m4f ITV

Just one past running
Le Milos (5/4 fav) won this in 2025
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 25% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Anthony Honeyball has a 38% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 26% strike-rate with his chasers at the track

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2026 Denman Chase Trends

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Staged at Newbury racecourse the Betfair-sponsored Denman Chase is a Grade Two race that is run in February each year.

First run in 2000, the Denman Chase is always a hotly-contested race that is run over a trip of 3 miles, and over the years has provided plenty of clues ahead of the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Four horses have won this race before going onto land the Cheltenham Gold Cup that same season – Kauto Star (2007), Denman (2008), Coneygree (2015) & Native River (2018).

In 2017 – Native River won the Denman Chase before running third in the Gold Cup, but in 2018 he went one better after landing both the Denman Chase and the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

The race was upgraded to Listed status in 2002 and then promoted further in 2003 to a Grade Two – which it remains at today.

The contest was originally sponsored by the Aon Group, but in 2012 leading betting exchange – Betfair – took over the sponsorship mantle, and in the process also renamed the race the ‘Denman Chase’ in honour of the 2008 winner. With William Hill taking over the sponsorship duties in 2025.

Since 2000 leading National Hunt trainer – Paul Nicholls – has won the race 10 times - including again in 2021 when his Secret Investor won for jockey Bryony Frost.

Here at GeeGeez, we look back at recent winners of the race and highlight the key stats ahead of the 2026 renewal – this year staged on Saturday 7th February.

Recent Denman Chase Winners

2025 - Djelo (6/4 fav)
2024 - Shishkin (8/11 fav)
2023 – Zanza (16/1)
2022 – Eldorado Allen (6/1)
2021 - Secret Investor (14/1)
2020 – Native River (2/5 fav)
2019 – Clan Des Obeaux (2/5 fav)
2018 – Native River (8/11)
2017 – Native River (11/10)
2016 - Houblon des Obeaux (3/1)
2015 – Coneygree (15/8 fav)
2014 – Harry Topper (7/2)
2013 – Silviniaco Conti (8/11 fav)
2012 – Long Run (4/7 fav)
2011 – Noland (13/2)
2010 – Tricky Trickster (8/1)
2009 – Madison du Berlais (12/1)
2008 – Denman (1/4 fav)
2007 – Kauto Star (2/9 fav)

Denman Chase Trends

18/22 – Rated 150+
18/22 – Aged 9 or younger
17/22 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
17/22 – Had won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before
17/22 – Placed favourites
17/22 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
16/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/22 – Aged 8 or younger
13/22 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
12/22 – Raced at either Cheltenham or Kempton last time out
11/22 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (4 winners)
10/22 – Winning favourites
9/22 – Irish bred
8/22 – Won last time out
8/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (10 wins in total)
8/22 – French bred
6/22 – Winning distance – ¾ length or less
5/22 – Returned a double-figure price
4/22 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman, Kauto Star & Native River)
4/22 – Trained by the Tizzard yard
2/22 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/22 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (3 in total)
8 of the last 19 winners were aged 7 years-old
Just one winner aged 11+ since 2000
Venetia Williams has won 2 of the last 10
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

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