2026 Grand National Betting Trends and Tips - The Randox HealthGrand National is simply the biggest and most famous horse race in the world. Run at Aintree racecourse each year in early April the gruelling contest is run over a trip of 4 1/4 miles with the first ever winner being the appropriately-named Lottery.
With 34 runners to go through one popular angle on whittling down the field is to use some key trends - apply these to the 2026 Grand National runners and you'll at least build up a profile of the type of horse it takes to win the Liverpool marathon.
Did you know that since 1978 only FOUR horses have won carrying more than 11-5 in weight, while we've only had one winning 7 year-old since 1941........which was Noble Yeats in 2022.
Here at GEEGEEZ we look back at past winners and highlights the key betting trends ahead of the 2026 Aintree Grand National - this year run on Saturday 11th April - and sponsored by Randox Health.
Ok, at first glance with now 34 runners (reduced from 40) contesting 30 fences for 4 1/4 miles the Aintree Grand National does have quite a scary look to it when it comes to trying to hunt down the winner – however, despite those daunting factors you can often find the Grand National winner by following a few simple tips and trends.
The 2026 Grand National is on Saturday 11th April at 4pm.
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Positive Grand National Pointers……………….
Horses that had won or finished placed in a National race of any description
Note horses wearing a tongue-tie (5 of the last 8)
Aged between 8-10, but last 10 have all been aged 9 or younger
Look for horses that raced over hurdles at some point earlier that season
Horses that like to be ridden up with the pace in their races often do well (avoid horses that like to be held up)
Irish-trained horses have a great recent record in the Grand National (won 7 of the last 9)
Irish-bred horses have the best recent Grand National record
Look for horses that finished unplaced in the previous season’s Grand National – they often do well
Horses that have won over 3miles in the past is virtual ‘must-have’
Negative Grand National Pointers…………………
Horses aged 13 or older don’t have a great Grand National winning record – you have to go back to 1923!
Runners that have fallen or unseated three or more times often don’t run well
Past Grand National winners and previous Grand National placed horses have bad returning records
Horses that had last raced over 56 days ago often don’t run well
Runners that had hard races at the Cheltenham Festival, run the previous month, don’t fare well, although Tiger Roll kicked this trend into touch again in 2019 and Corach Rambler won at Cheltenham before winning the National in 2023.
Recent Grand National Winners
2025 - Nick Rockett (33/1)
2024 - I Am Maximus (7/1 jfav)
2023 - Corach Rambler (8/1 fav)
2022 – Noble Yeats (50/1)
2021 - Minella Times (11/1)
2020 - Cancelled (Covid)
2019 - Tiger Roll (4/1 fav)
2018 - Tiger Roll (10/1)
2017 - One For Arthur (14/1)
2016 – Rule The World 33/1
2015 – Many Clouds 25/1
2014 – Pineau De Re 25/1
2013 – Auroras Encore 66/1
2012 - Neptune Collonges 33/1
2011 - Ballabriggs 14/1
2010 - Don't Push It 10/1jfav
2009 - Mon Mome 100/1
2008 - Comply or Die 7/1 jfav
2007 - Silver Birch 33/1
2006 - Numbersixvalverde 11/1
2005 - Hedgehunter 7/1 fav
2004 - Amberleigh House 16/1
2003 - Monty’s Pass 16/1
2002 - Bindaree 20/1
2001 - Red Marauder 33/1
2000 - Papillon 10/1
1999 - Bobbyjo 10/1
1998 - Earth Summit 7/1 fav
1997 - Lord Gyllene 14/1
1996 - Rough Quest 7/1 fav
1995 - Royal Athlete 40/1
1994 - Miinnehoma 16/1
1993 - VOID RACE
1992 - Party Politics 14/1
1991 - Seagram 12/1
1990 - Mr Frisk 16/1
Aintree Grand National Trends
33/34 – Officially rated 137 or higher
32/34 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
30/34 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
30/34 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
26/34 – Returned a double-figure price
25/34 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
25/34 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS
25/34 – Aged 9 or older
24/34 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
23/34 - Aged 10 years-old or younger
22/34 – Finished in the top 4 last time out (8 of the last 9)
21/34 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
20/34 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
20/34 – Placed favourites (top 4)
18/34 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
16/34 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
14/34 – Trained in Ireland (inc 11 of the last 19 years)
13/34 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
10/34 – Won last time out
8/34 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
7/34 – Ran in a previous Aintree Grand National (but 15 of the last 17 were having their debuts)
3/34 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
3/34 - Trained by Willie Mullins (last 2)
2/34 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/34 - Trained by Lucinda Russell (2 of the last 8)
1/34 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS
Aintree Grand National Facts
Since 1978, 151 horses have tried to win with 11-6 (or more) – with just three winners – I Am Maximus (11-6) in 2024, Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
20 of the last 26 winners were bred in Ireland
5 of the last 8 winners wore a tongue tie
23 of the last 31 winners aged between 8-10
Only 4 horses that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961 (Corach Rambler did the double in 2023)
15 of the last 17 Grand National winners were having their first run in the race
Just one 7 year-old or younger to win after 1940 (Noble Yeats, 2022)
16 of the last 28 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
3 of the last 16 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
10 of the last 22 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
5 of the last 23 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
Just two past winners or placed horses from the previous year’s race has won for 39 years (88 have attempted)
26 of the last 28 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
Just two back-to-back winners since 1974 Red Rum (1974) and Tiger Roll (2019)
Aintree Grand National Betting Trends (22 Year)
22/22 – Carried 11st 9lbs or less
20/22 – Officially rated 137 or higher
19/22 – Had won over at least 3m previously
19/22 – Ran 50 days or less ago
18/22 – Carried 11st 5lbs or less
15/22 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
14/22 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/22– Winners from the top 8 in the betting
11/22 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
9/22 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
9/22 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
8/22 – Experienced the National fences before
8/22 – Won their last race
6/22 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
6/22 - (Won by a horse aged 8 years-old (6 of the last 10)
5/22– Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
3/22 – Won by the Gordon Elliott yard
3/22 - Won by the Willie Mullins yard
2/22 – Won by the McCain yard
2/22 - Won by the Lucinda Russell yard
2026 Grand National Trends and Stats
Weight Watchers: Some recent winners have carried 11st (or more) to victory - including Nick Rockett (11-8) and I Am Maximus (11-6) in 2024. However, looking back at recent trends make this weight your cut-off point.
If you look back over the winners, we’ve only seen the mighty Red Rum (1974 & 1977), Nick Rockett (2025) and Many Clouds (2015) carry 11-8 or more – 25 of the last 34 winners carried 10-13 or less.
Staying Power: Stamina is an absolute must when scanning down the Grand National entries. Year-after-year there are always plenty of hype horses that are certainly talented, but the big question surrounding their chance is will they stay the gruelling 4m 1/4f trip?
30 of the last 34 winners had won over 3m+ in the past, but it's worth noting that the 2021 Minella Times - had only won over 2m6f before heading to National glory.
Age Concern: Experience is a vital attribute when looking back at past Grand National winners with horses aged 9 years-old or OLDER certainly the ones to focus on.
Before Noble Yeats won as a 7 year-old in 2022 - you had to go back to 1940 (Bogskar) to find the last 7 year-old to grab the Merseyside marathon!
Also don’t be too put off if your fancy is in their twilight years – but not a teenager - 26 of the last 34 winners were aged 9 or older, but it is worth pointing out 6 of the last 10 winners were 8 year-olds, suggesting there might be a bit of a turning point in this age stat. Including Nick Rockett (2025) and I Am Maximus in (2024).
9 of the last 10 winners were aged either 8 or 9.
Tongue-Tie: An interesting stat that's building up is that five of the last 8 National winners wore a tongue-tie. Backed up again in 2023 with Corach Rambler sporting this form of headgear or equipment.
We can expect several of the runners to follow suit, but this emerging trend should also help knock out many. While 3 of the last 7 winners wore headgear of some sort.
Luck Of The Irish: Our friends from the across the Irish Sea have raided these shores to win the Aintree Grand National many times in recent years, so certainly take a second glance at any of their runners.
10 of the last 21 winners came from Irish-based stables, including 7 of the last 9 and another in 2025 with the Willie Mullins-trained Nick Rockett - which was his third win in the race after I Am Maximus and Hedgehunter.
The only two non-Irish winners came from the Lucinda Russell team in Scotland – so the last British-trained winner was still Many Clouds in 2015.
In short, the Irish or Russell have won ALL of the last NINE Nationals.
Fencing Master: With thirty of the most unique obstacles in horse racing to negotiate with then having previous form over the tricky Grand National fences can be a massive advantage.
Many recent Grand National winners had previously been tried over these Grand National-style fences in the past. The Topham Chase and Becher Chase - or a previous run in the big race itself – are the main races that are staged at Aintree racecourse over the same Grand National-style fences to look back at.
Who’s Your Favourite: The betting on the Grand National always picks up pace in the weeks building up to the big day, but on the Saturday itself, when the once-a-year punters hit the high streets, this is when the betting market really kicks into gear.
It’s also worth noting that the weights for the Grand National are issued well in advance (February each year), so with some horses often running well after they’ve been given their allocated weight and before the race then this can also impact the ante post Grand National betting.
8 of the last 34 runnings have been won by the favourite (24%), while 20 of the last 34 (59%) market leaders were placed (top 4 finish)!
Two of the last three runnings have now been won by the favourite (or joint) too, plus three of the last six.
Market Toppers: We’ve already talked about the actual favourite, but this Grand National trend can be taken a bit further when you actually drill down into recent runnings.
In fact, most winners in recent years started in the first eight of the Grand National betting market – indicating that despite the Venetia Williams-trained, Mon Mome, popping-up at 100/1 in 2009, that punters generally tend to get this race right.
13 of the last 22 winners came from the top 8 in the betting market. But we did see a 33/1 winner last year with Nick Rockett.
With 6 of the last 7 winners returning 14/1 or shorter. Only 50/1 winner Noble Yeats in 2022 has really saved the bookies since 2017.
Fitness First: Probably the biggest trend in recent years, and a really easy way to whittle the 34 strong field down in one easy swoop, is just check how many days ago your fancy last ran.
This is because the majority of the recent Grand National winners had their previous race no more than 48 days prior to the big day.
While if you want to take this trend further than you’ll notice that a large amount of recent winners of the Grand National actually raced less than 40 days prior to landing the greatest steeplechase in the world.
31 of the last 33 winners ran no more than 55 days ago, while 25 of the last 34 raced no more than 34 days ago!
In 2021, Minella Times, did defy this trend after winning the National off a 62-day break, while the 2023 winner Corach Rambler ran just 32 days prior, when first in the Ultima Handicap Chase in 2023 at the Cheltenham Festival.
12 months ago, Nick Rockett was last in action 42 days before winning the race – when winning the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse, which was won by last year's third Grangeclare West this season.
The last two Bobbyjo Chase winners have won the National.
While 6 of the last 7 winners ran in the Ultima Chase, Bobbyjo Chase or Cross Country Chase before winning the National.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/TigerRoll_2019GrandNational_830x320.jpg320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2026-04-11 06:00:492026-04-11 07:31:452026 Grand National Trends
The Liverpool Hurdle and The Maghall Novices’ Chase are always decent events, but really – it’s all about one race on the Saturday – the Randox Health Grand National.
As always here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the key stats for the main LIVE ITV races – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.
Good Luck!
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Aintree Horse Racing Trends
SATURDAY, 11th April 2026 (ITV/Racing TV)
12:45 – Maghull Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m
22/22 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
22/21 – Winners from the first 3 in the market
22/22– Priced 5/1 or shorter in the market
19/22 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
18/22 – Ran within the last 35 days
16/22 – Placed in the top three in their last race
14/22 – Ran in the Arkle Chase last time out
12/22 – Won by a horse aged 5 or 6 years-old
10/22 – Favourites that won
9/22 – Won their last race
6/22 – Irish-trained winners
6/22 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/22 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc 4 of last 14 runnings)
3/22 – Won by the Henry de Bromhead yard (inc 3 of the last 12 runnings)
Arkle Chase winners have a good record – 6-9 in the last 24 years and 4-from-5 since 2008 (when running)
Since 1989 there have been just 6 Irish-trained winners – 2013, 2015, 2016, 2019, 2022 & 2024
Since 1999 trainer Paul Nicholls has had 8 winners and 7 runners-up
21 of the last 29 (72%) winners ran in the Arkle Chase that season
10 of the last 15 winners were French bred
11 of the last 16 winners have won at least 3 times over fences
Just 2 winners in the last 25 years finished unplaced last time out
Just 1 winner in the last 27 years returned 13/2 or bigger
No 9 year-old winner since 1973
The last 9 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
2025 Winner: Kalif Du Berlias (15/8) Trainer: Paul Nicholls Jockey: Harry Cobden
1.20pm – William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 3m 1/2f ITV
11/12 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
10/12 – Carried 10-12 or more
10/12 – Returned 11/1 or shorter
10/12 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
10/12 – Won 2+ times over hurdles
8/12 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
8/12 – Didn’t win last time out
8/12 – Carried 10-12 in weight
8/12 – Placed favs (top 4)
8/12 – Had never raced at Aintree (hurdles)
7/12 – Rated between 131-138
5/12 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
4/12 – Winning favourites
4/12 – Finished in the top 4 at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
3/12 – Trained by Dan Skelton (3 of the last 6)
2/12 – Trained by David Pipe (Pipe’s 5 wins overall)
Harry Skelton has ridden 2 of the last 6
2025 Winner: Deep Cave (28/1) Trainer: Christian Williams Jockey: Jack Tudor
21/22 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
19/22 – Raced 39 days or less ago
19/22 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
18/22 – Placed in the top three last time out
17/22 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the market (12 of last 15)
12/22 – Raced in the Supreme (4), Ballymore (7) or County Hurdle (1) last time out
10/22 – Favourites to win (2 joint) (9 of the last 14 favs have won)
10/22 – Won their last race
4/22 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/22 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/22 – Trained by the Tizzard yard (2 of the last 8)
2/22 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc 2 of last 14 runnings)
Ballymore (Baring Bingham) Hurdle winners (Cheltenham Festival) are 4-from-4 since 1999
21 of the last 28 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
15 of the last 16 winners were placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out
20 of the last 27 (74%) winners were either fav or 2nd fav
12 of the last 19 (63%) winners had won at least 3 times hurdles
16 of the last 26 (62%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
17 of the last 28 (61%) winners finished 6th or better at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott, Tizzard, Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson have won 14 of the last 21 (67%) runnings between them
10 of the last 15 runnings went to a 5 year-old
Only 1 winning 4 year-old in the last 29 years
Only 2 winning 7 year-olds in the last 36 years
Respect horses rated 150+ (5-from-9 since 2011)
Front runners in the race have a bad recent record
Trainer Gordon Elliott has won the last 4
2025 Winner: Honesty Policy (5/1) Trainer: Gordon Elliott Jockey: Mark Walsh
2.30pm – William Hill Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f ITV
18/22 – Had run within the last 35 days
17/22 – Didn’t win last time out
16/22 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
16/22 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
14/22 – Priced 15/2 or bigger in the market
13/22 – Unplaced in their last race
12/22 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
5/22 – Won their last race
4/22 – Favourites that won
3/22 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard (3 of the last 15)
2/22 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
1/22 – Irish-trained winners
Only 4 of the last 26 winners were aged 10+
Only 5 winners carried more than 11st in the last 21 years
Just 1 Irish-trained winner in the last 48 runnings
11 of the last 15 (73%) winners were rated between 131 and 140
11 of the last 18 winners didn’t win earlier that season
10 of the last 13 winners had won over 3m before
Only 3 of the last 19 winners won last time out
Cruz Control has won the last 2 runnings
2025 Winner: Cruz Control (10/1) Trainer: Tom Lacey Jockey: Stan Sheppard
3.05pm – JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV
17/21 - Aged between 6-8 years-old
16/21 – Ran within the last 30 days
15/21 – Priced 11/2 or less in the market
14/21 – Won or finished 2nd at this meeting previously
14/21 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
13/21 – Won by a horse aged 6 or 7 years-old
12/21 – Placed 4th or better in that season’s Stayers' Hurdle (Cheltenham)
9/21 – Won their last race
9/21 – Favourites to win (6 odds-on)
7/21 – Raced in that season’s Cleeve Hurdle
5/21 – Irish-trained winners
4/21 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/21 – Trained by Gordon Elliott (2 of the last 4)
2/21 – Trained by Alan King
2/21 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
16 of the last 21 (76%) winners raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
19 of the last 21 (90%) winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
17 of the last 21 (81%) had run at this meeting before
14 of the last 21 (67%) were favourite or second favourite
8 of the last 16 winners won a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
7 of the last 16 winners won the Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) before winning this and 6 from last 10 (since becoming a G1 race)
Previous winners of the race are currently 6-from-7
Just 3 of the last 21 winners aged 9+(Sire Du Berlais, 11)
Just 3 winners rated below 155 in the last 21 runnings
No 5 year-old winners
Strong Leader won the race in 2024 & 2nd in 2025
2025 Winner: Hiddenvalley Lake (12/1) Trainer: Henry De Bromhead Jockey: Darrargh O’Keeffe
4.00pm – Randox Health Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m 2 1/2f ITV
33/34 – Officially rated 137 or higher
32/34 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
30/34 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
30/34 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
26/34 – Returned a double-figure price
25/34 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
25/34 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS
25/34 – Aged 9 or older
24/34 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
23/34 - Aged 10 years-old or younger
22/34 – Finished in the top 4 last time out (8 of the last 9)
21/34 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
20/34 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
20/34 – Placed favourites (top 4)
18/34 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
16/34 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
14/34 – Trained in Ireland (inc 11 of the last 19 years)
13/34 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
10/34 – Won last time out
8/34 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
7/34 – Ran in a previous Aintree Grand National (but 15 of the last 17 were having their debuts)
3/34 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
3/34 - Trained by Willie Mullins (last 2)
2/34 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/34 - Trained by Lucinda Russell (2 of the last 8)
1/34 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS
Aintree Grand National Facts
• Since 1978, 151 horses have tried to win with 11-6 (or more) – with just three winners – I Am Maximus (11-6) in 2024, Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
• 20 of the last 26 winners were bred in Ireland
• 5 of the last 8 winners wore a tongue tie
• 23 of the last 31 winners aged between 8-10
• Only 4 horses that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961 (Corach Rambler did the double in 2023)
• 15 of the last 17 Grand National winners were having their first run in the race
• Just one 7 year-old or younger to win after 1940 (Noble Yeats, 2022)
• 16 of the last 28 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
• No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
• 3 of the last 16 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
• 10 of the last 22 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
• 5 of the last 23 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
• Just two past winners or placed horses from the previous year’s race has won for 39 years (88 have attempted)
• 26 of the last 28 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
• Just two back-to-back winners since 1974 Red Rum (1974) and Tiger Roll (2019)
Aintree Grand National Betting Trends (22 Year)
22/22 – Carried 11st 9lbs or less
20/22 – Officially rated 137 or higher
19/22 – Had won over at least 3m previously
19/22 – Ran 50 days or less ago
18/22 – Carried 11st 5lbs or less
15/22 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
14/22 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/22– Winners from the top 8 in the betting
11/22 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
9/22 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
9/22 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
8/22 – Experienced the National fences before
8/22 – Won their last race
6/22 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
6/22 - (Won by a horse aged 8 years-old (6 of the last 10)
5/22– Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
3/22 – Won by the Gordon Elliott yard
3/22 - Won by the Willie Mullins yard
2/22 – Won by the McCain yard
2/22 - Won by the Lucinda Russell yard
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/NobleYeats_GrandNational2022.jpg320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2026-04-11 06:00:142026-04-11 07:31:52Aintree Day Three Stats and Trends: Saturday 11th April 26
Into the second day of the Aintree Grand National Meeting on Friday 10th April 2026 the ITV cameras are on-hand to take in five more LIVE races.
The Mildmay Novices’ Chase, Melling Chase and the Randox Health Topham Chase are the three feature contests as the 'must-see' action from Liverpool’s premier track continues.
As always, here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the key stats for the main LIVE ITV races – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.
Aintree Horse Racing Trends
FRIDAY, 10th April 2026 (ITV/Racing TV)
1:45 – William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) Cl1 2m4f ITV
11/12 – Had won between 2-4 times (hurdles)
10/12 – Aged 8 or younger
9/12 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
9/12 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/12 – Irish bred
8/12 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Placed favs (top 4)
8/12 – Rated between 133-137 (inc)
8/12 – Unplaced last time out
7/12 – Had run at Aintree before
6/12 – Aged 6
4/12 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
3/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/12 – Winning favs (joint or co)
0/12 – Outright winning favourites
The Irish have won 3 of the last 6 runnings
2025 Winner: Wellington Arch (14)
Trainer: Jonjo & AJ O’Neill
Jockey: Jonjo O’Neill Jr
2:20 – Mildmay Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m1f
22/22– Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
22/22 – Raced no more than 55 days ago
19/22 – Aged 7 or younger
19/22 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
19/22 – Raced no more than 33 days ago
18/22 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out (the last 12 winners finished 1st or 2nd at the Festival that season)
10/22 – Ran in the RSA (Brown Advisory) Chase last time out
11/22 – Winning favourites
8/22 – Won last time out
4/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/22 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (including 3 of last 8)
4/22 – Irish trained winners
5 of the last 6 RSA (Brown Advisory) Chase winners to run have lost
Trainer Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls have won 10 of the last 22 runnings between them
12 of the last 14 winners were the BHA top-rated first and second
21 of the last 28 winners were aged 6 (7) or 7 (14) years-old (14 of the last 16)
The last 22 winners were either French (9) or Irish (13) bred.
No British bred winner since 2002
6 of the last 13 winners ran in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase
0 winners since 2000 came here unbeaten over fences
35 of the last 36 (97%) winners were priced 10/1 or less
26 of the last 34 (76%) winners had won over at least 3m before
38 of the last 43 (88%) winners had won twice or more over fences
19 of the last 22 (88%) winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
24 of the last 26 (92%) winners had run in at least 4 chases
Just one winner returned 11/1 or bigger since 1989
Willie Mullins has never won this race
21/22 – Raced no more than 31 days ago
15/22 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/22 – Finished first or second last time out
13/22 – Ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
11/22 – Aged 5 years-old
7/22 – Winning favourites
6/22 – Won last time out
6/22 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (6 of last 15)
23 of the last 26 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
18 of the last 28 (64%) winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
27 of the last 34 (79%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
11 of the last 13 winners ran in bumpers before (9 winning at least once)
Only 1 winning 4 year-old in the last 26 runnings
Only 2 winning 7 year-olds in the last 29 runnings
Just six Irish winners since 1978 (5 from 37 this century) – but have won the last 3
Irish have won just 7 of the last 48 runnings (but 5 of the last 6)
13 of the last 25 (52%) winners were placed in the top 6 in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Supreme runner-up is 6 from 7 in the last 25 runnings)
Willie Mullins is currently 2-from-8 since 2016
3 of the last 4 winners rated between 147-149
3 of the last 4 favourites have won
Respect JP McManus-owned runners (7 wins), including 3 of the last 4 (all 7 returned fav)
2025 Winner: Salvator Mundi (7/2)
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: Paul Townend
3:30pm – JCB Melling Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV
19/22 – Raced within the last 30 days
19/22 – Ran in either the Ryanair or Champion Chase that season
19/22 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
19/22 – Aged 9 or younger
18/22 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
15/22 – Finished in the top three last time out
12/22 – Ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time out
12/22 – Winning favourites
9/22 – Irish-trained winners (5 of the last 11)
7/22 – Ran in the Ryanair Chase that season
5/22 – Won last time out
4/22 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (5 total and winning-most trainer)
4/22 – Won by a previous winner of the race
3/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (4 wins in total)
26 of the last 34 (76%) winners had won over at least 2m4f
35 of the last 38 (92%) winners were aged 7 or older
27 of the last 33 (82%) winners were aged between 7-9 years-old
14 of the last 30 (47%) winners had finished third or better in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
21 of the last 30 (70%) winners were fav or 2nd fav
26 of the last 34 (76%) winners had won or been placed at the Grand National Meeting before
15 of the last 21 (71%) winners had won a Grade 1 Chase earlier that season
29 of the last 34 (85%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Only 1 past winner aged 6 years-old
Respect French breds (the last 8 winners)
11 of the last 27 winners trained in Ireland
Joseph O’Brien runners are 2-from-3
Jonbon has won the last 2 runnings
All winners since 2006 aged 9 or younger
20/22 – Aged 10 or younger
19/22 – Raced within the last 34 days
18/22 - Didn’t win last time out
15/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/22 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
12/22 – Unplaced last time out
11/22 – Raced within the last 23 days
5/22 – Trained by the Bowen yard
4/22 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/22 – Won last time out
4/22 – Irish-trained winners
3/22 - Trained by Willie Mullins (3 of last 6)
2/22 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien
6 of the last 11 winners carried 11-0 or more
Henderson, Mullins & Tizzard have trained 8 of the last 12 winners between them
7 of the last 11 winners were rated 141 or higher
5 of the last 11 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
8 of the last 18 (44%) winners raced in last year’s race
12 of the last 19 (63%) winners hadn’t won over fences that season
12 of the last 21 (57%) winners had raced over the GN-style fences before
15 of the last 32 (48%) winners had raced at least 7 times that season
Only 6 Irish-trained winners since 1979, but 3 of the last 6
Just 1 British or Irish-bred winner aged 7 or younger since 1985
Just two winners aged 11+ (124 have tried) since 1994
18/22 – Had run within the last 35 days
16/22 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
12/22 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the market
10/22 – Won their last race
5/22 – Favourites that won
3/22 - Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 11)
2/22 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/22 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable
2/22 – Irish-trained winners
Trainer Paul Nicholls is 1-from-10 (last 13 runnings)
16 of the last 18 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (89%)
25 of the last 29 (86%) won at least twice over hurdles before
21 of the last 32 (66%) winners had won 4 times or more over hurdles
15 of the last 31 (48%) winners won over at least 2m7f previously
17 of the last 25 (68%) winners didn’t run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
2025 Winner: Julius Des Pictons (14/1)
Trainer: Jamie Snowden
Jockey: Gavin Sheehan
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https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/TigerRoll_Nash_830x320.jpg320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2026-04-09 16:00:072026-04-09 16:09:26Aintree Day Two Stats and Trends: Friday 10th April 26
Here at GeeGeez, we give you all the key stats for all the main LIVE ITV races at Aintree on the opening day of their 2026 Grand National Festival (Thursday 9th April) – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.
Once the final runners are out, you can apply these stats to the entries to put history on your side.
Aintree Trends (ITV/Racing TV) - Thursday 9th April 2026
18/22 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
17/22 – Placed in the top three last time out
15/22 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
14/22 – Raced in the Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
10/22 – Winning favourites
8/22 – Won last time out
5/22 – Won by trainer Alan King (4-from-7 since 2007)
4/22 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
4/22 – Irish-trained winners
3/22 - Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (3 of last 7)
17/20 – Won at least twice over hurdles
16/20 – Retuned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
14/20 – Previous Grade 1 or 2 winners that season
14/20 – Trained by Willie Mullins, Alan King, Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls
13/20 - Winners were placed at worst at the Cheltenham Festival
13/20 – Ran at least 4 times over hurdles before
11/20 – Finished in the top 3 in the Triumph Hurdle
12/17 – Began their careers in France
15 of the last 20 had won a graded race that season
Horses rated 152+ are 5 from 8 (since 2007)
Willie Mullins has won 3 of the last 9 runnings
Just 4 of the last 24 winners were Irish-trained
French-bred horses have won 15 of the last 26 (58%) runnings – including 8 of the last 10
Just 6/35 winners hadn’t won at least twice over hurdles before
2025 Winner: Murcia (11/4)
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: Paul Townend
2.20pm – William Hill Manifesto Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5yo+) 2m4f ITV
16/16 – Didn’t win last time out
14/16 – From the top 3 in the market
13/15 – Rated 150+
12/16 – Ran 8 or less times over hurdles
12/14 – Ran between 4-5 times over fences
11/16 – Ran in the Arkle (6) or Golden Miller (5) at Cheltenham
9/11 – Won exactly once over fences
8/12 – Aged 6 years-old
4/9 – Irish winners (last 3)
1/10 – Won by a 5 year-old
0/7 – Mare winners
0/11 – Winning favourite (1 of the last 16)
Paul Nicholls runners are 0-17
Willie Mullins has won the last 2 runnings
20/22 – Didn’t win last time out
16/22 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
14/22 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
12/22 – Ran in the Gold Cup (Cheltenham) last time out
8/22 – Winning favourites (7 of the last 10)
7/22 – Aged in double-figures
5/22 - Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (6 wins in total)
5/11 – Were the top-rated horse in the field
4/22 – Won by the Pipe stable
4/11 – Won that season’s King George VI Chase
13 of the last 16 (81%) winners aged 9 or younger
12 of the last 15 winners returned 7/2 or shorter
9 of the last 12 winners top two on BHA ratings
7 of the last 10 market leaders (favs) have won
All of the last 14 winners DIDN’T win last time out
Trainer Willie Mullins has won 2 of the last 6
26/41 (63%) winners ran in that season’s King George
26/41 (63%) winners ran in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
14/28 (50%) winners were placed fourth or better in that season’s King George VI Chase
Just 6 of the last 29 winners were Irish-trained (only 3 in the last 11)
6 of the last 13 winners had headgear
12 of the last 15 winners were favourite or second favourite
2nd or 3rd favourites have won 14 of the last 32 (44%) renewals and 7 of the last 15 (47%)
6 of the last 14 winners had run in this race before
No last-time out winner since 2010
Harry Coden (2) and Nico de Boinville (2) have won 4 of the last 7
20/22 – Aged 9 or older (Just 3 of the last 40 winners were younger than 9)
16/22 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
15/22 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/22 – Aged in double-figures
9/22 – Won last time out
9/22 – Ran in the Cheltenham St James’s Place Hunters’ Chase last time out
6/22 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
14 of the last 20 (70%) winners were aged 10 or older
Irish-trained runners have won 5 of the last 11 runnings
5 of the last 11 winners were placed in the top 4 in last season’s race
22 of the last 32 (69%) winners went off favourite or second favourite
25 of the last 31 winners had won a race earlier that season
Only 4 of the last 41 winners were aged younger than 9
25 of the last 32 (78%) winners came from the top 4 in the market and returned at single-figures in the betting.
12 of the last 20 winners had run over these National-style fences before
Ex-handicap horses have won 14 of the last 23 (61%) renewals
Owner JP McManus has won 3 of the last 10
2 of the last 8 ridden by James King
2025 Winner: Gracchus De Balme (22/1)
Trainer: J J O’Shea
Jockey: Mr Huw Edwards
4:05pm – William Hill Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+) 2m4f ITV
21/22 – Aged 8 or younger
18/22 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
17/22 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
15/22 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
12/22 – Ran in the Champion Hurdle last time out
12/22 – Irish-trained winners, plus 22 of the last 48
7/22 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
6/22 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (6 of the last 14)
6/22 – Won last time out
16 of the last 17 winners from the top 3 in the betting
27 of the last 31 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
47 of the last 48 winners aged 8 or younger
16 of the last 31 (52%) winners trained in Ireland
32 of the last 48 (67%) winners ran in that season’s Champion Hurdle
9 of the last 15 winners (60%) were placed in the top 4 of that season’s Champion Hurdle
Just 1 of the last 48 winners aged 10+
29 of the last 31 winners aged 8 or younger
16 of the last 19 winners (including last 13) had won a Grade 1 before
9 of the last 24 (38%) winners had won at this meeting before
Only 6 Champion Hurdle winners since 1999 have run – but 4 won
The last 17 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
Just 4 winning outright favourites since 2000
Every past British-trained winner had raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Just 2 winning 5 year-olds in the last 36 runnings
Just 2 of the last 20 Champion Hurdle runners-up to race have won
The last 3 winners aged 6
Willie Mullins has won the last 2 (3 of the last 9)
Gordon Elliott has never won this race
2025 Winner: Lossiemouth (5/4)
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: Paul Townend
4:40pm – Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (Class 1) (5yo+) 2m ITV
20/22 – Aged 9 or younger
19/22 – Carried 11-1 or less
16/22 – Carried 10-13 or less
16/22 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
14/22 – Unplaced last time out
12/22 – Aged 7 or younger
10/22 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
4/22 – Winning favourites (1 co)
4/22 – Won last time out
3/22 – Irish-trained winners
17 of the last 23 winners returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
20 of the last 24 winners were rated 139 or lower
Only 3 winners older than 9 years-old since 1988
4 of the last 17 winners were ridden by conditional jockeys
The top 5 in the betting have won 19 of the last 27 (70%) runnings
22 of the last 25 (88%) winners carried 11-2 or less
7 of the last 26 (27%) winners ran in that season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual (Cheltenham)
10 of the last 11 winners DIDN’T run at the Cheltenham Festival that season
7 of the last 10 winners were Irish-bred
Respect trainer Henry De Bromhead – winner 2019 & 2023 and 4 placed horses
No winning favourite in the last 11 runnings
9 of the last 11 winners carried 10-10 or less
Brian Hughes has won 2 of the last 9
Sans Bruit (Paul Nicholls) has won the last 2 runnings
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Neptune-Collonges.jpg320675Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2026-04-06 15:33:172026-04-07 11:25:16Aintree Day One Stats and Trends: Thursday 9th April 26
Staged at Fairyhouse racecourse the 2026 Irish Grand National is run over a trip of 3m5f with 24 fences to be jumped.
The gruelling contest is always staged on Easter Monday, which this year falls on 6th April 2025. While several Irish Grand National winners have also won the Aintree Grand National, but none in the same season – I Am Maximus, Bobbyjo and Numbersixvalverde are recent examples of this.
But this year the Irish National comes BEFORE the Aintree Grand National, which is on 11th April.
Regarding the stats - did you know?
The 19 of the last 22 winners carried 10-13 or less in weight, while 16 of the last 22 successful horses were Irish-bred.
We’ve also seen just three winning favourites in the last 22 renewals, while in 2021 we saw a 150/1 winner of the race - FREEWHEELIN DYLAN - and 11 of the last 22 returned 20/1+.
To prove any horse really can win this National.
I Am Maximus (2023) gave Willie Mullins just his second win in the race but also provided Paul Townend with his first. As mentioned he went onto win the Aintree Grand National the following season.
In 2024 Intense Raffles won the Irish National, but despite being well-fancied for the Aintree National was pulled up.
While last year (2025) the Rebecca Curtis-trained Haiti Couleurs raided Ireland to win the Irish Grand National - he went onto win the Welsh National the following season (2025/26)
Recent Irish Grand National Winners
2025 - HAITI COULEURS (13/2)
2024 - INTENSE RAFFLES (13/2)
2023 – I AM MAXIMUS (8/1)
2022 – LORD LARIAT (40/1)
2021 - FREEWHEELIN DYLAN (150/1)
2020 - No Race (Covid)
2019 – BURROWS SAINT (6/1 fav)
2018 - GENERAL PRINCIPLE (20/1)
2017 – OUR DUKE (9/2 fav)
2016 – ROGUE ANGEL (16/1)
2015 – THUNDER AND ROSES (20/1)
2014 – SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (8/1 fav)
2013 – LIBERTY COUNSEL (50/1)
2012 – LION NA BEARNAI (33/1)
2011 – ORGANISEDCONFUSION (12/1)
2010 – BLUESEA CRACKER (25/1)
2009 – NICHE MARKET (33/1)
2008 – HEAR THE ECHO (33/1)
2007 – BUTLER’S CABIN (14/1)
2006 – POINT BARROW (20/1)
2005 – NUMBERSIXVALVERDE (9/1)
2004 – GRANIT D’ESTRUVAL (33/1)
2003 – TIMBERA (11/1)
Irish Grand National Betting Trends
20/22 – Won over at least 3m previously
20/22 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or less
19/22 – Carried 10-13 or LESS
19/22 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
19/22 – Aged 9 or younger
17/22 – Won by an Irish-based trainer
16/22 – Irish bred
16/22 – Carried 10-8 or LESS
16/22 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
15/22 – Returned a double-figure (or triple-figure) price
14/22 – Had raced at Fairyhouse previously
13/22 – Carried 10-6 or LESS
13/22 – Unplaced favourites
13/22 – Finished fourth or better last time out
11/22 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
11/22 – Rated between 130-137
5/22 – Won by an English-based trainer
5/22 – Won last time out
3/22 – Ran at Navan last time out
3/22 – Winning favourites (3 in the last 11)
2/22 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill (2007 & 2014)
2/22 – Trained by Thomas Gibney (2 in last 13)
Trainer Dermot A McLoughlin has trained 2 of the last 5
Trainer Willie Mullins has trained 2 of the last 6
Trainer Gordon Elliott has only won the race once (2018, General Principle)
Only 5 winners since 1996 have carried 11st 1lb+ (but 2 of the last 3 carried 11-1+)
11 of the last 22 winners returned 20/1 +
The average winning SP in the last 22 years is 25/1
Only 4 British-trained winners since 2005
Only 4 horses since 2000 to win with more than 11-0, Intense Raffles (2024), I Am Maximus (2023), Our Duke (2017) & Commanche Court (2000)
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/burrowssaint_830x320.jpg320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2026-04-04 01:53:082026-04-06 16:30:002026 Irish Grand National Trends
The ITV horse racing cameras are at Haydock and Musselburgh this Saturday to take in SEVEN LIVE races across the two venues.
At Haydock the Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Final Handicap at 2:05pm is one of the features.
While at Musselburgh there are four LIVE ITV races - that include the Queen's Cup Handicap over 1m6f - a race Wise Eagle won in 2023 and is back for more in 2026.
As always, we've got all the key trends and stats for each of the LIVE ITV Racing contests.
HAYDOCK Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
2:12 – Pertemps Network Challenger Stayers Hurdle Series Final Handicap Hurdle Cl2 1m7f144y ITV
9 previous runnings
Trainers Harry Derham (2), Gary Moore, Neil King, Dan Skelton, Jonjo O’Neill, Donald McCain, Tom George and Nigel Twiston-Davies have won the race before
7/9 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/9 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
6/9 – Winners carried 10-13 or less in weight (last two 12st)
5/9 – Carried 10-8 or less
6/9 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
4/9 – Winners returned between 8/1 and 11/1
4/9 – Rated between 115-119
4/9 – Irish Bred
3/9 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
2/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Ridden by Paul O’Brien
5 of the last 6 winners aged 5 or 6
Trainer Chris Gordon has a 43% SR with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Jamie Snowden has a 25% SR with his hurdlers at the track
2:46 – Challenger Stayers Hurdle Series Final Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 3m 1/2f ITV
9/9 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
8/9 – Won at least twice over hurdles before
7/9 – Finished in the top three last time out
6/9 – Carried 11-3 or more in weight
5/9 – Had run at the track before
5/9 – Rated between 121-126
4/9 – Unplaced favourites
3/9 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
3/9 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/9 – Ridden by Jonjo O’Neill Jr
Secret Trix (11/1) won the race in 2024
2 of the last 6 winners ridden by a claimer
Trainer Chris Gordon has a 43% SR with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Jamie Snowden has a 25% SR with his hurdlers at the track
2 previous renewals
Both winners aged 10
The Flier Begley (5/1) won this in 2025
Numitor (100/30 fav) won this in 2024
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 26% SR with his chasers at the track
3 previous runnings
3/3 – Returned 5/1 or shorter
Trainer Ewan Whillans, Sam England and Ryan Potter have won the race before
MUSSELBURGH Horse Racing Trends (Racing TV/ITV)
1:25 – Virgin Bet A Good Bet Royal Mile Handicap (Class 3) (3yo) 1m ITV
3 previous runnings
Trainers Charlie Johnston, Karl Burke and Richard Fahey have won the race in the past
3/3 - winners came between stalls 6-8
3/3 - winners carried 9-7 or more
3/3 - winners returned 4/1 or shorter
Trainer William Haggas has an 44% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Karl Burke has an 28% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer David O’Meara is only 2-24 (8%) with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Danny Tudhope has a 31% strike-rate riding 3 year-olds at the track
10/11 – Didn’t win last time out
9/11 – Drawn 4 or lower
9/11 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
9/11 – Had won over 7f before
9/11 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
8/11 – Returned 6/1 or shorter
8/11 – Placed favourites
8/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/11 – Finished in the top 4 last time out (1 win)
7/11 – Aged 4 or 5 years old
6/11 – Run at Musselburgh before (5 won)
6/11 – Winners stalls 1 or 2
3/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Won by trainers David & Nicola Barron (2 of the last 3)
Persuasion (18/1) won this race in 2025
Gweedore was 2nd in 2025
Last 9 winners from stall 5 or lower
8 of the last 9 winners stalls 1, 2 or 4
2:30 – Virgin Bet Goliath Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m6f ITV
No past winners
Trainer Karl Burke has a 33% (4-12) SR with is 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer James Owen has a 60% (3-5) SR with his 4+yolds at the track
3:05 – Virgin Bet Daily Price Boost Queen's Cup Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+) 1m6f ITV
7/9 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
8/9 – Carried 8-11 or more in weight
7/9 – Didn’t win last time out
7/9 – Unplaced favourites
6/9 – Had run at Musselburgh before
5/9 – Returned a double-figure price
2/9 – Won by the Johnston yard
2/9 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope (2 of last 3)
1/9 – Winning favourites
5 of the last 7 winners aged 5 or 6
Wise Eagle (9/1) won the race in 2023
Trainer Adam Nicol is 5 from 14 with his 4 year-olds at the track (36%) (and won the race in 2023)
Trainer Karl Burke has a 33% SR with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer James Owen has a 60% SR with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainers Mark Johnston (2), Adrian Paul Keatley, Adam Nichol, Archie Watson, Ian Williams, JP Shanahan, Brian Ellison and Jim Goldie have won the race before
3:42 – Virgin Bet Scottish Sprint Cup Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+) 5f ITV
12/13 – Won over 5f before
10/13 – Drawn 8 or higher
9/13 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/13 – Rated between 92 and 99
8/13 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
8/13– Aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/13 – Irish bred
7/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
6/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/13 – Ran at the track before
6/13 – Unplaced favourites
4/13 – Drawn in stalls 15 (2) or 16 (2)
4/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Trained by Mick Appleby
3/13 – Ridden by a claimer (3 of the last 10)
8 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 8+
7 of the last 10 winners aged 6 or younger
Trainer Kevin Ryan has a 33% SR with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Michael & David Easterby are just 2-32 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
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https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/stt.png320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2026-04-03 12:50:472026-04-04 06:10:44Sat TV Trends: 4th April 2026
This Saturday the ITV Racing cameras head to Doncaster and Kempton to take in EIGHT races across the two venues – with flat racing all the way.
At Doncaster, it’s the start of the flat turf season with the traditional curtain-raiser – the William Hill Lincoln Handicap at 3:35pm – a race trainer William Haggas has won FIVE times.
While at Kempton there are three ITV races too – that include the Listed Snowdrop Fillies’ Stakes – where every winner since 2015 has returned 9/2 or shorter.
As always, here at Geegeez we’ve got all the key trends and stats to help you whittle down the runners and put history on your side.
DONCASTER Horse Racing Trends
1:20 – William Hill Top Price Guarantee EBF Brocklesby Stakes (GBB Race) Cl2 (2yo) 5f ITV
16/18 – Won this on their debut runs
14/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Foaled in Feb or March
10/18 – Placed favourites
8/18 – Irish bred
5/18 – Horses from stall 2 that finished 1st or 2nd
5/18 – Ridden by a claimer
5/18 – Winning favourites (co & joint)
4/18 – Trained by Bill Turner (6 in total: 1996, 2002, 2006, 2008, 2011 & 2013)
3/18 – Winners from stall 2
3/18 – Winners from stall 10
2/18 – Ridden by Charles Bishop (2 of the last 7)
0/18 – Winners from stall 1
Trainer Richard Hannon has won 2 of the last 4
Trainer Richard Fahey has won 2 of the last 8 runnings (4 wins in total)
Trainer Dylan Cunha won the race in 2024
5 of the last 7 winners from stalls 5-9 (inc)
7 of the last 8 winners between stalls 5-11 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 11/2
Note: 2006 running was staged at Redcar, 2007 running was staged at Newcastle
1:50 – William Hill Price Boost Every Day Cammidge Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV
20/21 – Aged 7 or younger
19/21 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
18/21 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
18/21 – Had won no more than 5 times before
16/21 – Had won over 6f before
14/21 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
14/21 – Rated 101+
13/21 – Last ran 4 months or longer ago
13/201 – Had raced at Doncaster before
12/21 – Raced at Doncaster, Ascot, Lingfield or Windsor last time out
11/21 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
10/21 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/21 – Unplaced favourites
4/21 – Had won at Doncaster before
4/21 – Won last time out
3/21 – Winning favourites (or joint) (just 1 on the last 10)
7 of the last 10 winners aged 4 or 5
No winners from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 16 runnings
The last 8 winners between stalls 3-9
4 of the last 8 winners from stalls 4 or 5 (2 each)
The last 5 winners came between stalls 3-6 (inc)
7 of the last 16 winners came between stalls 9-16 (inc)
Montassib won the race in 2024
Spycatcher won the race in 2025
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 13/2
2:25 – William Hill Epic Price Boosts Spring Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV
20/23 – Carried 8-13 or more
18/23 – Finished fourth or worse last time out
17/23 – Aged 4 years-old
16/23 – Won over a mile before
15/223 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/23 – Won from a single-figure draw
5/23 – Winners from stalls 3-7 (inclusive)
3/23 – Winning favourites (none in the last 11 runnings)
3/23 – Won last time out
3/23 – Won a race at Doncaster before
Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2010 & 2014
Just 1 winner older than 6 in the last 23 years
7 of the last 10 winners aged 4
ALL of the last 10 winners aged 4 or 5
Two of the last 3 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
Two 50/1 winners in the last 7 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 19/1
2:57 – William Hill Doncaster Mile Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m ITV
12/2 – Last ran 4+ months ago
11/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/12 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Rated 106+
10/12 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
7/12 – Had won over at least 1m before
7/12 – Winning favourites
6/12 – Winners from stalls 2 or 4
5/12 – Ran at Ascot last time out
4/12 – Had won 6+ times before
4/12 – Trained by Roger Varian (4 of last 9)
3/12 – Won last time out
2/12 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of the last 8)
7 of the last 10 winners from stalls 5 or lower
4 of the last 10 winners from stall 2
ALL of the last 10 winners aged 4 or 5
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 3/1
3.32 – William Hill Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV
21/22 – Aged 6 or younger
20/22 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
19/22 – Had won over at least 1m before
18/22 – Had won between 2-4 times before
17/22 – Having their first run of the flat season
15/22 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
15/22 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
15/22 – Unplaced favourites
13/22 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
11/22 – Aged 4 years-old
10/22 – Officially rated between 95-100
10/22 – Placed first or second last time out
9/22 – Had raced at Doncaster before
8/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/22 – Won last time out
8/22 – Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
6/22 – Placed horses from stall 12 (2 winners)
6/22 - Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
4/22 – Winning favourites (1 in the last 11 runnings)
4/22 – Trained by William Haggas (5 in total)
2/22 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/22 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/22 – Trained by John Quinn
2/22 - Trained by John Gosden
2/22 - Ridden by Benoit De La Sayette (2 of last 4)
2/22 – Ridden by James Doyle (2 of last 5)
1/22 - Irish-trained winners
11 of the last 15 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-4 in weight
Just 1 winner has carried 9-10 in the last 39 runnings
9 of the last 11 winners aged 4 or 5
Since 1988 only 2 winners aged 7+
The average winning SP in the last 22 runnings is 14/1
Just two 'back-to-back' winners in the past (Ob, 1906/07 & Babur 1957/58)
KEMPTON HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)
2:08 Virgin Bet Queen's Prize Handicap (London Stayers' Series Qualifier) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-100) 2m ITV
13/14 - Won no more than 5 times
13/14 - Aged between 4-6 years-old
12/14 - Had won over 1m6f or further
11/14 - Didn’t win last time out
11/14 - Had run at Kempton before
11/14 - Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 - Rated between 82-90
9/14 - Had won at Kempton in the past
7/14 - Only won between 1-3 times before
6/14 - Favourites that finished 2nd
2/14 - Trained by Roger Charlton
2/14 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/14 – Ridden by Kieran Shoemark
1/14 - Winning favourites
7 of the last 11 winners from stalls 1-5 (inc)
2:42 Virgin Bet A Good Bet Rosebery Handicap (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m3f ITV
19/21 – Had won over at least 1m1f before
16/21 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
16/21 – Had won between 2-4 times before
15/21 – Rated between 89 and 100
14/21 – Carried 8-13 or more in weight
13/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/21 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/21 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/21 – Aged 4 years-old
11/21 – Unplaced favourites
9/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/21 – Won last time out
4/21 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
4/21 – Winning favourites
2/21– Trained by the Johnston yard (Mark/Charlie)
The last 3 winners all came from stall 6
Last 5 winners carried 9-1 or more
3 of the last 12 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1
19/21 – Had won between 2-4 times before
19/21 – Came from the top three in the betting
19/21 – Priced 7/1 or shorter in the betting
17/21 – Won by a 4 year-old
17/21 – Had won over at least 1m before
16/21 – Last raced 4 ½ months or more ago
15/21 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
14/21 – Rated between 90-102
14/21 – Placed favourites
10/21 – Unplaced in their last race
9/21 – Winning favourites
8/21 – Had run at Kempton before
6/21 – Rated 96 or lower
5/21 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
3/21 – Won last time out
7 of the last 16 favourites have won
The last 12 winners returned 9/2 or shorter
Trainer Marco Botti has won 3 of the last 11
Trainer John Gosden has won 2 of the last 5
Ryan Moore has ridden 2 of the last 9
William Buick has ridden the last 2 winners
3 of the last 10 winners from stall 5
7 of the last 10 winners from stalls 3-6
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 3/1
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/stt.png320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2026-03-27 13:01:352026-03-27 07:31:25Sat TV Trends: 28th March 2026
Billed as the feature race on the first Saturday of the new British flat racing turf season, the Lincoln Handicap is run over a distance of 1m at Doncaster racecourse.
In recent years, the race has been dominated by horses aged 4 years-old, winning 11 of the last 22 renewals, while with FOUR wins in the last 17 runnings trainer William Haggas is one of the men to look out for.
Weight-carried has been a big trend in recent years with 20 of the last 22 winners carrying 9-4 or less, while 10 of the last 22 (45%) were officially rated between 95-100.
Despite, being a competitive handicap the favourites in the betting don’t have too bad a record either with 4 of the last 22 (18%) winning, but also note that 15 of the last 22 favourites were also unplaced - including the 2025 jolly Midnight Gun.
The 2026 Lincoln Handicap will be run on Saturday 28th March at 3:35pm.
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Lincoln Handicap Betting Trends
21/22 – Aged 6 or younger
20/22 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
19/22 – Had won over at least 1m before
18/22 – Had won between 2-4 times before
17/22 – Having their first run of the flat season
15/22 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
15/22 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
15/22 – Unplaced favourites
13/22 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
11/22 – Aged 4 years-old
10/22 – Officially rated between 95-100
10/22 – Placed first or second last time out
9/22 – Had raced at Doncaster before
8/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/22 – Won last time out
8/22 – Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
6/22 – Placed horses from stall 12 (2 winners)
6/22 - Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
4/22 – Winning favourites (1 in the last 11 runnings)
4/22 – Trained by William Haggas (5 in total)
2/22 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/22 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/22 – Trained by John Quinn
2/22 - Trained by John Gosden
2/22 - Ridden by Benoit De La Sayette (2 of last 4)
2/22 – Ridden by James Doyle (2 of last 5)
1/22 - Irish-trained winners
11 of the last 15 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-4 in weight
Just 1 winner has carried 9-10 in the last 39 runnings
9 of the last 11 winners aged 4 or 5
Since 1988 only 2 winners aged 7+
The average winning SP in the last 22 runnings is 14/1
Just two 'back-to-back' winners in the past (Ob, 1906/07 & Babur 1957/58)
It's now over 20 years ago since horse-loving and mega-rich HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum had the dream to build a new and exciting race tracks in the heart of Dubai and attract the world’s best thoroughbreds to race for the Dubai World Cup.
Millions of dollars of prize money provided the carrot for trainers around the globe and with the prize now upped to a whopping $10million, from $6 million, for the main race this year’s event is set to be the best yet. 2010 saw the start of a new era with the entire carnival being run for the first time at the newly built Meydan Racecourse, having previously been staged at Nad Al Sheba.
The new futuristic track has cost an estimated $2billion to build and will easily accommodate a bumper 60,000 crowd. 10,000 car park spaces make things easier for visitors, while the track has been built on 76m Sq feet and includes a 12f turf track and an 8.75 Tapeta (AW) course.
This year’s race will be run on Saturday 28th March, the final day of the Dubai Racing Carnival that runs from January and consists of around 10 meetings.
Last year we saw the hot favourite from Japan Forever Young only third, but he's back for more on 2026 - trying to go two places better.
Dubai World Cup Trends (Since run at Meydan 2010)
15/15 - Ran in the last 8 weeks
14/15 - Previous Group/Grade 1 or 2 winners
12/15 - Finished 1st or 2nd in last race
12/15 - Raced in the last 4 weeks
11/15 - Won over 1m2f
9/15 - Favourites unplaced
9/15 - Previous Group/Grade 1 winners
9/15 - Officially rated between 119-123
9/15 - Failed to win last race
9/15 - Aged 5 or older
8/15 - Won at the track
7/15 - Returned a double-figure price
7/15 - From stalls 5-8 (inclusive)
5/15 - Owned by Godolphin (9 wins in total)
4/15 - Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor (9 wins in total)
4/15 - Favourites (1 joint)
2/15 - Ridden by Christophe Soumillon
Bob Baffert has won the race 4 times
11 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 6+
The last 9 winners were aged between 4-6
Trained Dubai World Cup Winners………..
15/29 – Trained in USA (52%)
11/29 – Trained in GB (38%)
2/29 – Trained in Japan (7%)
1/29 – Trained in France (3%)
0/29 - Trained in Ireland (0%)
Previous Dubai World Cup Winners
2025 Hit Show (USA) (5): Florent Geroux / Brad H Cox 66/1
2024 Laurel River (USA) (6): Tadhg O'Shea / Bhupat Seemar 17/2
2023 - Ushba Tesoro (JPN) (6): Yuga Kawada / Noboru Takagi - 10/1
2022 - Country Grammer (USA) (5): Frankie Dettori / Bob Baffert - 15/2
2021 - Mystic Guide (USA) (4): Luis Saez / Mike Stidham - 6/4 (fav)
2020 - No race (Covid)
2019 – Thunder Snow (UAE) (5): Christophe Soumillon / Saeed Bin Suroor – 4/1
2018 – Thunder Snow (UAE) (4): Christophe Soumillon / Saeed Bin Suroor – 8/1
2017 - Arrogate (USA) (4) : Mike E Smith / Bob Baffert - 1/3 (fav)
2016 – California Chrome (USA) (5) : Victor Espinoza / Art Sherman – 15/8 (jfav)
2015 – Prince Bishop (UAE) (8) : William Buick / Saeed Bin Suroor – 14/1
2014 – African Story (UAE) (7) : Silvestre de Sousa / Saeed Bin Suroor – 12/1
2013 – Animal Kingdom (USA) (5) : Joel Rosario/ Graham Motion – 11/2
2012 – Monterosso (UAE) (5): Mickael Barzalona/M Al Zarooni – 20/1
2011 - Victoire Pisa (JPN (4): Mirco Demuro/Katsuhiko Sumii – 12/1
2010 - Gloria de Campeao (FRA) (6): T. J. Pereira/Pascal Bary – 16/1
2009 - Well Armed (USA) (6): Aaron Gryder/Eoin G. Harty – 10/1
2008 – Curlin (USA) (4): Robby Albarado/Steve Asmussen – 4/11 (fav)
2007 – Invasor (USA) (5): Fernando Jara/K McLaughlin – 5/4 (fav)
2006 – Electrocutionist (UAE) (5): Frankie Dettori/Saeed bin Suroor – 5/4 (fav)
2005 - Roses in May (USA) (5): John Velazquez/Dale Romans – 11/8 (fav)
2004 - Pleasantly Perfect (USA) (6): Alex Solis/Richard Mandella – 5/2
2003 - Moon Ballad (UAE) (4): Frankie Dettori/Saeed bin Suroor – 11/4
2002 - Street Cry (UAE) (4): Jerry Bailey/Saeed bin Suroor – 9/2
2001 - Captain Steve (USA) (4): Jerry Bailey/Bob Baffert – 7/4 (jfav)
2000 - Dubai Millennium (UAE) (4): Frankie Dettori/Saeed bin Suroor -
1999 – Almutawakel (UAE) (4): Richard Hills/Saeed bin Suroor -
1998 - Silver Charm (USA) (4): Gary Stevens/Bob Baffert -
1997 – Singspiel (GB) (5): Jerry Bailey/Michael Stoute -
1996 – Cigar (USA) (6): Jerry Bailey/Bill Mott -
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/ushbatesoro_DWC_2023.png319830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2026-03-26 13:56:222026-03-27 07:30:542026 Dubai World Cup Trends
This Saturday the ITV Racing action comes from Kelso, Newbury and Bangor – with jumping all the way.
There are TEN live ITV races spread out over the three venues – where you can use our key trends and stats to help whittle down the runners.
NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends
1:15 – Castle Windows Newbury Anniversary Novices’ Hurdle
(GBB Race) Cl3 (4yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV4
8/9 – Aged 5 or 6
6/9 – Finished in the top 3 last time
6/9 – Won just once over hurdles
5/9 - Irish bred
5/9 – Winning favourites
Chris Gordon has trained 2 of the last 5 winners
3 of the last 4 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
5 previous runs
5/5 – Aged between 4-6
4/5 – Carried 10-10+
4/5 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
2/5 – Won with exactly 11-11
1/5 – Winning favourite
Tim Vaughan won the race in 2025
Trainer SRB Crawford won the race in 2024
Trainer Tom Lacey won the race in 2023
Trainer Sam Thomas won the race in 2022
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2021
Trainer Philips Hobbs & Johnson White have a 24% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Neil King has a 25% record with his hurdlers at the track
11/11 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Aged 7 or older
10/11 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Favourites finished first or second
8/11 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
8/11 - Won no more than 3 times over fences
7/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
6/11 – Had run over fences at Newbury before
6/11 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
4/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 8)
2/11 – Trained by Dan Skelton (2 of the last 3)
Harry Sketon has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
Heltenham won the race in 2024 and 2023
11/13 - Carried 11-3 or less in weight
11/13- Won 1-2 times before
10/13 - Aged 5 or 6 years-old
10/13 - Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/13 – Returned 7/1 or bigger
9/13 - Had not run at Newbury before
9/13 - Ran in the last 6 weeks
8/13 - Had won over 2m4f or further before
7/13 - Placed favourites
7/13 - Irish bred winners
6/13 - Aged 5 years-old
6/13 - Ran at Doncaster (4) or Exeter (2) last time out
5/13 - Won last time out
5/13 - winning favourites
2/13 - Trained by Charlie Longsdon
2/13 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
Note: 2013 running was staged at Kempton
3:35 – Goffs Hundred Grand Bumper (An Open National Hunt Flat Race) (GBB Race) Cl2 (4-5 yo) 2m 1/2f ITV4
6/6 – Aged 4 or 5
6/6 – Returned 17/2 or shorter
5/6 – Carried 11st or more
3/6 – Trained by Harry Fry
3/6 – Winning favourites
Trainer Anthony Honeyball has a 21% SR with his NH Flat runners here and also won this race in 2023
Just 1 previous running
2025: Lavida Adiva (Ruth Jefferson)
Trainer Nicky Richards is 14-70 (20%) hurdlers at the track
1:30 – BetWright Handicap Hurdle (Go North Cab On Target Series Final) (GBB Race) (Cl2) (4yo+) 2m5f ITV4
Just 3 past runnings
No winning favourite
Trainers Lucinda Russell, Susan Corbett and Sue Smith have won this race before
All 3 winners carried 10-5 to 10-13
All 3 winners aged 6-8
2 of the last 3 winners aged 8
2/3 winners ridden by a conditional jockey
Starlyte won the race in 2025
Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero have a 44% SR with their hurdlers at Kelso
2:10 – BetWright Herring Queen Series Final Mares’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m ITV4
3 previous running
Trainer Fergal O’Brien won the race in 2023 and 2024
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2022
2 of the last 3 winning favourites
All 3 winners aged between 5-6 years-old
2 of the last 3 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
All 3 winners carried 10-10+
Trainer Jonjo O’Neill and AJ O’Neill are 3-9 (33%) with their hurdlers at the track
Trainer Fergal O’Brien has a 29% record with his hurdlers at the track
2:40 – BetWright Novices’ Handicap Chase (Go North Forgive ‘N Forget Series Final) (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+) 2m 5 1/2f ITV4
No past runnings
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 40% SR with this chasers at the track
Trainer Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore have a 24% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Ewan Whillans is only 1-28 (4%) with his chasers at the track
Jockey Tristan Durrell is 3-6 (50%) over fence at this track
Just 3 past runnings
All 3 winners aged 7
All 3 winners carried 10-13 to 11-3
All 3 winners 9/2 or shorter
2/3 winners fav (or joint fav)
The Four Sixes won this race last season
Both winners carried between 10-13 and 11-3
Trainer Olly Murphy won the race in 2025
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies won the race in 2024
Trainer Donald McCain won the race in 2023
Trainer Olly Murphy has a 25% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nigel and Willie Twiston-Davies have a 67% record with his hurdlers at the track
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/stt.png320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2026-03-20 13:00:272026-03-19 09:54:14Sat TV Trends: 21st March 2026
Some Long Range Ante Post Picks for the 2027 Cheltenham Festival
Straight after the 2025 Cheltenham Festival, I had a crack at putting together some ante post plays for last week's jamboree. In the end, none of the picks hit their mark; but that really does only tell half the story, as you can read for yourself here.
The management summary is that you could have had The New Lion at 7/1 (SP 3/1) and Majborough at 8/1 (SP 5/6) from only five suggestions. The other three were Fact To File at 6/1 for the Gold Cup (wrong race, late non-runner anyway), Inothewayurthinkin for the same race (recommended to wait until he'd run as suspected bigger price would be available - eventually ran 3rd at 11/1), and Marine Nationale at 7/1 for the Champion Chase (clear 2nd favourite when scratched a week before the Festival).
It's very much a case of "system working well, send more money" and what follows will be along similar lines.
Champion Hurdle 2027
A year ago the ante post market for the 2026 Champion Hurdle had Lossiemouth at 8/1 in a place but generally 6/1; Brighterdaysahead was 20/1 and Alexei not quoted.
The race was won by Lossiemouth, and in some style. But the bare numbers were relatively workaday: she'd recorded much higher TS figures three times in Ireland earlier in the season and was only 3lb ahead of her triple 160 RPR's in spite of the visually impressive nature of the win. Brighterdaysahead also under-performed against her Irish level while The New Lion improved his RPR but produced a significantly lower TS number than in his Turners win a year prior.
Where I get to with all that is that Lossiemouth is not improving but sets a strong standard; Brighterdaysahead is a capable fly in the ointment but her Festival preps seem to have taken her chance away the last couple of years (she'll be interesting if rested after her Christmas run but I suspect they might 'bottle it' and go Mares Hurdle anyway); and The New Lion continues to slightly underwhelm me.
Sir Gino shouldn't be expected to come back to his best, but if he did he'd have a chance. Not a robust proposition at this stage. Poniros has improvement in him and will be a more likely candidate next year than this, but still doesn't excite.
But one for which half a case at a price could be made is Alexei, who might well have been third but for a very bad error at the last. He's progressive, has strong Cheltenham form and is 20/1.
Of the novices, the only Supreme winner to take the Champion Hurdle the following year in the last 54 years is Constitution Hill, though both Jezki and Buveur d'Air went close in the former en route to the latter twelve months hence. My guess is that Sober Glory will go chasing, so too Old Park Star and Mydaddypaddy. None of them would be on my Champion Hurdle radar in any case.
The Turners has been a better pointer to the following season's Champion but it looked a quantity over quality renewal to my eye. The winner, King Rasko Grey, had been beaten in three of his four previous races, and the 3rd and 4th placed horses were 50/1 and 150/1. I might be wrong - again?! - but this looks, if not pinch of salt form then at least not Champion Hurdle kingmaker form, behind the winner. King Rasko has scope to step up a fair bit off so few runs to date.
The Triumph produces a five-year-old contender most years, and that age group has a physical maturity deficit against their elders without any compensating weight for age allowance. Nothing there is of interest.
State Man will be ten next year - no thank you - and there is nothing else obvious on the radar: perhaps Kabral du Mathan will drop back to two miles but will he have the speed? Maybe...
In what is a deeply unoriginal suggestion, Lossiemouth looks pretty fair at 3/1 assuming she gets to the start line - a big assumption, natch. Of the others, Alexei is mildly tempting.
Champion Chase 2027
The favourites' graveyard at the Festival, it's a race you almost want to land on the second or third in on the day. Obviously that statement makes no sense and we want to get as close as possible to backing the favourite on the day, because that horse will, in the opinion of the market, have the best chance.
This year, Majborough was sent off 5/6 having been 8/1 ante post a year before, and the winner Il Etait Temps was heavily backed into 5/2 on the day - he was 33/1 the week after the 2025 QMCC. The reason for his whopping quote was that, at that point, he'd been off the track since running 3rd to Gaelic Warrior in the Arkle and then going back to back in the Aintree/Punchestown equivalent Grade 1's. He returned at Sandown and took out the end of season Celebration Chase six weeks after the Festival.
In 2027, it seems likely Majborough will go the Ryanair or Gold Cup route, his jumping frailties exposed at the tempo of a Champion Chase. Kopek Des Bordes would be a natural horse in here but Arkle winners have a much better record than placers. Kopek can be expected to win at Punchestown though he may again have to lock horns with the excellent jumping of Kargese. She seems over-priced because there's not really another race for her, Mares' Chase aside (please, no).
The 16/1 about Marine Nationale is also too big an overreaction. He was second choice before absenting a few days ahead of the '26 Fez and he'll surely go very close at Punchestown, in so doing halving his current quote.
L'Eau du Sud is clearly not up to this, Only By Night will probably try to win the Mares Chase in which she was second this year, and Lulamba will be going up in trip. If there's a forgotten horse in this market - an Il Etait Temps if you will - it could be Salvator Mundi. His season was left at the start after defeat at 1/7 odds in November, following which he ran a middling race in the St Stephen's Day Grade 1 novice chase at Leopardstown (though sent off only 9/2). He absolutely bolted up in a Thurles beginners' chase last month (by 28 lengths from a 128-rated horse) and he was a Grade 1-winning novice hurdler this time last year. He's 50/1.
You could almost dutch 4/1 Kopek des Bordes, 9/2 Il Etait Temps, 12/1 Kargese and 16/1 Marine Nationale at close to even money - and I will be doing a variation of just that - and perhaps try a tiny win only speculative on Salvator Mundi at 50/1.
Gold Cup 2027
This felt very much like a changing of the guard in the Gold Cup ranks. Galopin Des Champs missed the gig, Inothewayurthinkin was wrong all season, Fact To File was re-routed and ejected. Next year, Haiti Couleurs and Grey Dawning will be ten, which is too old.
It would be hard not to be with Gaelic Warrior, a horse which prior to winning the Gold Cup last week had been second in a Fred Winter and a Turners and won an Arkle. Festival form. He'll be nine next year, the same age as Don Cossack, Synchronised, Imperial Commander and Kauto Star (second time) were for their wins - but the years of those victories were 2016, 2012, 2010 and 2009. In other words, the only winner older than eight since 2012 was Don Cossack. Even Galopin Des Champs was beaten as a nine-year-old. So, hard as it is, I'm still looking...
...and the place to look is in the ranks of the rising stars. Half of the Gold Cup winners this century were second season chasers: the shortest of those in the lists currently is 16/1.
That horse is Final Demand, second in the Brown Advisory off a difficult prep. He wasn't noticeably staying on compared to the winner - Kitzbuhel, made all - but perhaps with a better lead up he might be able to improve. Both will need to, as will one of the most under-rated horses in training, Salver. You couldn't put him in multiples but his Brown Advisory run has to be seen to be believed.
In the image below, I've highlighted the furlong by furlong sectional percentages of the winner, Kitzbuhel, and third placed Salver. The faint grey line is 'normalised par' - in other words anything above the faint grey line is above par.
Below the chart is a table of furlong by furlong data. A mile out Salver is eleven lengths off the lead having had to jump Kaid d'Authie when that one fell, and he jumps three from home in last place. His numbers from there are better in every single furlong than the two horses which finished in front of him.
It was an excellent staying performance and implies the three furlongs longer trip of the Gold Cup could bring out more improvement. Third to Majborough in the 2024 Triumph Hurdle (missed '25 Festival) and a dual Grade 2 novice chase winner this term, if the Moores campaign him like a Gold Cup horse he'll have a good chance. He's currently 100/1 (not shown in the image below).
I'm siding with the 1-2-3 in the Brown Advisory against the will-be-nine-year-olds, the beaten-in-the-Gold-Cup-this-years and the will-probably-run-in-the-Ryanairs. Kitzbuhel is 20/1, Final Demand 16/1 and Salver is 100/1.
*
It goes without saying - but I'll emphasise it anyway - that any number of things can go wrong over the course of 360 days, and at least some of them will. Working on a loose basis of a horse having a 65% chance of making the next Festival, you'd be looking at anything from 2/1 Lossiemouth (what price is she if lining up in twelve months' time?) to 66/1 Salver...
Caveat massively emptor!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Salver_BrownAdvisory_Sectionals.png7051213Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2026-03-16 13:35:322026-03-16 14:31:43Taking A Flyer on the 2027 Cheltenham Festival
• 24 of the last 32 winners won last time out
• 9 of the last 17 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
• Irish have won 10 of the last 13 runnings
• French-breds have filled 16 of the last 27 places (last 11 runnings)
• 15 of the last 21 came from the top 4 in the betting
• 14 of the last 18 winners returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
• Respect Nicky Henderson (7 winners), Willie Mullins (6 winners), Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Alan King-trained runners
• The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide (2022 winner Vauban won that race and 2023 winner Lossiemouth was runner-up in it, 2024 winner Majborough was 3rd in it)
• JP McManus has owned 3 of the last 10 winners
• 2 of the last 6 winners were fillies
• 9 of the last 14 winners ran in the Spring Hurdle (3 winners)
• 10 of the last 14 winners had raced by Christmas time
• 8 of the last 11 winners began their careers in France
• Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners of the race
• Gordon Elliott has had 2 wins and 3 seconds in the last 12 years
• Willie Mullins has won 5 of the last 6 runnings (2 with Rich Ricci-owned horses)
Negatives….
• Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
• Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
• Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
• Just 3 of the last 21 winner returned bigger than 12/1 – last year’s winner 100/1
• Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 16
• Last 8 Adonis Hurdles winners (to have run in the race) have all lost (all unplaced too)
2:00 – William Hill County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 179y ITV
• The Irish have won 13 of the last 19 runnings
• 10 of the last 11 winners were trained by Willie Mullins (6) or Dan Skelton (4)
• Willie Mullins has won 8 of the last 16 runnings
• 20 of the last 25 winners were novices or second season hurdlers
• 15 of the last 20 winners were rated in the 130’s
• 9 of the last 18 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
• 8 of the last 17 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
• 20 of the last 27 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 13 of the last 27 winners aged 5
• 8 of the last 12 winners had run at Cheltenham before
• 13 of the last 19 winners Irish-trained
• 11 of the last 18 winners started their careers in France
• 15 of the last 20 winners were priced in double-figures
• 14 of the last 22 winners began their careers on the flat
• Look for Mullins, Skelton, AJ Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
• Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
• 10 winners since 2002 ran in the Ladbrokes or Betfair Hurdles that season
• 13 of the last 25 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
• 14 of the last 19 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• 5 of the last 10 winners hadn’t raced in the last 72 days
• Paul Nicholls is 4 from 33 (+14pts) since 2004-2014
• Willie Mullins is 6 from 61 (+42.25pts) – he’s won 8 of the last 16
• Trainer Dan Skelton has trained 4 of the last 10 winners
• 14 of the last 22 winners were ex-flat horses
• No back-to-back winners ever since first run in 1920
Negatives….
• Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
• Only 2 winners since 2000 winning with a mark of 150+
• Gordon Elliott has a poor record (0-from-27) since 2011
• Nicky Henderson has a poor record (0-35) this century
• Horses aged 9+ are 0-from 40 in last 18 runnings
• Since 1960 only 6 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
• Since 1961, only 11 winners had run at the Festival before
• Since 2005, just 2 winners rated 146 this season
• Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
• Avoid horses making their handicap debuts, although last 4 winners have defied this stat
• Just 3 winning outright favourites in last 24
• Just 4 of the last 18 winners returned a single-figure price
• Only 5 previous runnings
• Willie Mullins trained 3 winners
• Willie Mullins has a good record in ‘mares’ only’ races at the Festival
• 4 of the last 5 winners have been 2nd favourite
• All 5 winners won last time out
• 4 of the 5 winners rated 150+
• 4 of the 5 winners owned by JP McManus (past 4)
• All 5 winners aged 7-8
• All 5 winners Irish-trained
• 4 of the 5 winners had run well at the Cheltenham Festival before
• Just one winning favourite (2025)
Negatives….
• UK-trained runners are 0-16
• 9+ year-olds are 0-12
• Gordon Elliott is 0-6
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The 2026 Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide
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Written by Paul Ferguson and Guest Authors, is the complete guide to The Festival, with every fact, stat and trend covered to help you make the most informed bets throughout the best week of the year.
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2025 Winner: JASMIN DE VAUX (6/1) Trainer – Willie Mullins Jockey – Paul Townend UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 11 of the last 21 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
• 18 of the last 21 winners contested a Graded Hurdle last time out
• 3 of the last 5 ran in the Golden Cygnet Novice Hurdle (Nat Lacy) DRF
• 17 of the last 21 winners won or placed in a Graded Novice before
• 7 of the last 21 winners had run in the Hyde, Bristol or Classic earlier that season
• 10 of the last 14 winners had won a Point
• Horses rated 152+ are 3-5
• 9 of the last 12 winners trained in Ireland
• 10 of the last 17 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
• 11 of the last 15 winners had won or been placed in a bumper
• 10 of the last 21 came from the top 5 in the betting
• 10 of the last 21 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
• 16 of the last 21 had run in a race over 3m
• 18 of the last 20 winners were aged 6 (11) or 7 (7) years-old
• 15 of the last 21 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out
• 17 of the last 21 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 13 of the last 21 winners had 4+ runs over hurdles
• 16 of the last 20 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 4 of the last 20 favourites won
• Respect Jonjo O’Neill runners (2 wins, from 3 runners!)
• Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 9 runnings
• No winning fav in the last 11 runnings
Negatives….
• Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
• Challow Hurdle winners have poor Festival record
• Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1st or 2nd last time out
• Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles
• Gordon Elliott is 1-from-16
• Be wary of ex flat horses (1 from 21)
• Nicky Henderson is 0-from-15 in the last 13 years
• 5 year-olds have a poor record (1 from 20)
• Only 4 of the last 20 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year
• 21 of the last 26 winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
• 21 of the last 25 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 21 of the last 26 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
• 13 of the last 20 winners had run 9 or less times over fences
• 25 of the last 26 winners were Grade 1 winners
• Every winner since 2000 only had one season hurdling
• 21 of the last 25 had won or placed at the Festival before
• 21 of the last 25 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
• 23 of the last 26 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
• 16 of the last 18 winners ran 3 or less times that season
• 18 of the last 29 winners were bred in Ireland
• 18 of the last 25 winners won last time out
• 12 of the last 23 winners were favourites (52%)
• 14 of the last 21 winners yet to win beyond 3m 1/2f
• ALL of the last 26 winners were aged 9 or younger
• 25 of the last 26 winners aged between 7-9 years-old (12 of last 13 aged 7 or 8)
• 23 of the last 26 winners were in their first three seasons over fences
• Horses placed in a previous Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a good record
• 5 of the last 15 winners ran in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase the previous season
• Trainer Willie Mullins and jockey Paul Townend have won 4 of the last 7 runnings
• Willie Mullins and Henry De Bromhead have won 6 of the last 7 between them
• The last 7 winners Irish trained (9 of the last 10 Irish-trained too)
Negatives….
• Non-Grade One winners have a poor record
• No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 79)
• Just one winning 6 year-old since 1964
• Just one past winner for Gordon Elliott (Don Cossack)
• Horses rated 166 or less are only 7 from last 59 – but last year’s winner rated 160
• Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season
• Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
• Only 3 winners since 2000 returned 9/1 or bigger
• Just 2 of the last 17 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
• Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t fare well
• Only 2 winners since 2000 had previously been beaten in the race
• Just 3 of the last 25 winners placed in the race before
• No winner since 2000 ran in that season’s Cotswold Chase
4:40 - Princess Royal Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase 3m 2f 70y ITV
2025 Winner: WONDERWALL (28/1) Trainer – S Curling Jockey – Mr R James UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses…..
• 31 of the last 35 winners were aged under 11 years-old
• 29 of the last 40 won last time out
• 9 of the last 11 winners aged 10 or 11
• 15 of the last 18 winners ran in February
• 21 of the last 23 winners Irish or French bred
• The last 19 winners were yet to win over this trip (rules)
• 8 of the last 16 winners finished in the top 5 in the race last year
• 10 of the last 17 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
• 29 of the last 37 started out in Points or Hunter Chases
• 15 of the last 20 winners ran 34 days or less ago
• Respect the Irish runners (won 10 of last 15)
• 15 of the last 20 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
• 9 of the last 11 winners aged 10-11
• 10 of the last 17 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
• 16 of the last 18 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 11 of the last 16 winners rated 134 or higher (7 of last 13, rated 138+)
• 3 back-to-back winners in the last 14
• 4 of the last 19 winners owned by JP McManus
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times
Negatives….
• Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
• Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
• Just 2 winners in the last 49 years aged 12 or older
• 30 of the last 39 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost – but the 2019 winner – Hazel Hill – defied this trend
• Just one 6 year-old winner in the last 38 runnings
• Only 2 winners aged 7 since 2000
• Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
• Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
• British bred horses are 1-90 (last 23 runnings) (Sine Nomine, 2024)
• Just 2 winners since 2000 hadn’t run within the last 53 days
• Horses aged 11+ are just 5 from 276 since 1990
• Just 4 winners since 2000 didn’t finish in the top 3 last time out
• Gordon Elliott has never won the race
5:20 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (0-145) 2m 4f 56y RTV
2025 Winner: WODHOOH (9/2) Trainer – Gordon Elliott Jockey – Danny Gilligan UK/Irish: Irish
Pluses….
• 15 of the last 17 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
• 12 of the last 15 winners placed in the top 3 last time
• All of the last 17 winners carried 11-1 or more
• 3 of the last 8 winners had top-weight
• 7 of the last 10 winners carried 11-7 to 11-10
• All 17 winners aged 7 or younger (5-7)
• 14 of the last 17 winners aged 5 or 6
• 11 or the last 14 winners rated 138+
• 15 of the last 17 winners had 8 or less runs over hurdles
• 7 of the last 12 winners were Irish-based Novices
• Irish have won 10 of the last 15 (7 making handicap debuts)
• Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
• 14 of the 17 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
• 9 of the 17 winners won last time out
• 7 of the last 12 winners had run over a longer trip that season
• 9 of the 17 winners were rated 133-139
• 9 of the 17 winners returned at a double-figure price (13 of the last 17 were 16/1 or less)
• 5 and 6 year-olds have won 15 of last 17 runnings
• Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
• Willie Mullins is 4 from 31 runners in the race (won 4 of the last 15 runnings)
• Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 5 places)
• Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 13 years
• Gordon Elliott has won 4 of the last 9 runnings
• Trainer Joseph O’Brien has won 2 of the last 7
• Nicholls, Elliott, Mullins and O’Brien have won 11 of the last 13 between them
• JP McManus has owned 2 of the last 7
Negatives….
• Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 23, inc 3 favs)
• Horses aged 8+ are 0-from 77
• Only one winner in last 14 rated 136 or lower (since become 0-145)
• Just 1 winning fav in the 17-year history (9-15 returned in double-figures)
• Only 4 winners have previous Festival experience
• Horses with 11st or less are currently 0-from-121
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/sizingjohn_2017goldcup.jpg320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2026-03-13 05:00:272026-03-13 09:43:502026 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 13th March 2026)
Staged at Uttoxeter racecourse the Midlands Grand National is run over 4m1f. First run back in 1969 the gruelling contest has been won by the David Pipe stable in four of the last 15 seasons, while 5 of the last 13 winners were ridden by a conditional jockey.
Here at GEEGEEZ we look back at recent winners and is on hand with all the key stats ahead of the 2026 renewal, this year staged on March 14th 2026.
Recent Midlands Grand National Winners
2025 - MR VANGO (11/1)
2024 - BEAUPORT (18/1)
2023 – MAJOR DUNDEE (12/1)
2022 – SCREAMING COLOURS (12/1)
2021 – TIME TO GET UP (3/1 fav)
2020 – TRUCKERS LODGE (6/1)
2019 - POTTERS CROSS (20/1)
2018 - REGAL FLOW (16/1)
2017 – CHASE THE SPUD (11/1)
2016 – FIREBIRD FLYER (16/1)
2015 – GOONYELLA (6/1)
2014 – GOULANES (13/2 fav)
2013 – BIG OCCASION (6/1)
2012 – MASTER OVERSEER (11/1)
2011 – MINELLA FOUR STAR (25/1)
2010 – SYCHRONISED (15/2)
2009 – RUSSIAN TRIGGER (8/1)
2008 – HIMALAYAN TRAIL (16/1)
2007 – BARON WINDRUSH (12/1)
2006 – G V A IRELAND (5/1 fav)
2005 – PHILSON RUN (14/1)
2004 – no race
2003 - INTELLIGENT (6/1)
Midlands Grand National Betting Trends
20/22– Aged 9 or younger
20/22 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences before
19/22 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
18/22 – Carried 10-12 or less
18/22 – Won by an Irish bred horse
17/22 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
15/22 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
15/22 – Unplaced favourites
14/22 – Had never run at Uttoxeter before
14/22 – Carried 10-10 or less
13/22 – Returned a double-figure-price in the betting
12/22 – Officially rated 135 or less
12/22 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
10/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/22 – Won last time out
4/22 – Trained by David Pipe
3/22 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
3/22 – Winning favourites
2/22 - Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
12 of the last 15 winners aged 8 or 9
The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 11/1
5 of the last 12 winners were ridden by a conditional jockey
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/welshnationalpreview_chasethespud.jpg319830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2026-03-13 01:00:252026-03-13 10:30:512026 Midlands Grand National Trends
And so to Friday, Gold Cup day, on what has - for me at least - been a chastening week. The Chastening Festival: I hope that doesn't catch on.
Regardless of where you are against your ledger, we have seven spectacular servings of sport to savour so let's wash our hands and dig in...
1.20 Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m1f)
Previewed by Dave Renham.
Let me start with the strongest past race trends:
- 14 of the last 18 winners were priced with an SP 10/1 or shorter.
- There have been 5 winning favourites in the last 11.
- 9 of the last 18 winners raced at Leopardstown LTO. This means that 50% of the winners have come from only 22% of the total runners.
- 30 horses have come into the race unbeaten and 7 have won. Backing all 30 would have yielded a BSP profit of £18.77 and returns of 62p in the £.
- 5 winners for Willie Mullins, albeit from 55 runners, and 4 from 19 for Nicky Henderson.
- Female horses have won 2 of the last 6 races and they had a 1-2-3 in 2023
Poniros was a shock 100/1 winner last year but generally, as the trends have suggested, this race tends to be dominated by horses nearer the top of the market. It looks wide open this year and here are the main contenders:
Minella Study - Minella Study is three from three over hurdles, including an impressive win at the course last time out. That race has worked out fairly well and other positives are that he has generally jumped well and seems to stay. He looks a very fair price to me as I think if he was trained by either Henderson or Skelton, he would be shorter.
Maestro Conti - Maestro Conti is part owned by Sir Alex Ferguson and trained by Dan Skelton. He started off his life in France, winning at Moulins before making it two from two at Kempton just after Christmas. Last time out he won the JCB Triumph Trial at Cheltenham, finishing off strongly to make three from three in his career, which as noted earlier is a positive trend for this race. Along with Manilla Study, he represents a second decent chance for the Brits.
Proactif - Unbeaten in two starts, so that’s a positive trends-wise. His win at Fairyhouse in January looks the best trial and he won that quite impressively. Comments after that win from connections were positive, despite them feeling he was still a little green. Trained by the master Willie Mullins, he looks a solid enough market leader.
Selma De Vary - Had five runs in France before moving to Willie Mullins, the last of which was super impressive when coming from last to first and sluicing up by nearly 10 lengths. Her first run for the Irish maestro was a decent second at the beginning of February at Leopardstown. She is expected to come on a bundle for that. Matches most of the trends so is definitely one to consider seriously.
Macho Man - A third Mullins runner with a chance. Was second to Proactif at Fairyhouse and hence has around 3 lengths to find on that run.
Triumph Hurdle Recent Winners
Triumph Hurdle Pace Map
Triumph Hurdle Selection
Willie Mullins has won the last four renewals and five out of the last six. Hence, we need to take all his fancied runners seriously. Selma De Vary is my preferred option at the prices. She ticks lots of the boxes and I think she will improve a ton from her last run.
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2.00 County Hurdle (Grade 3 Handicap, 2m1f)
Previewed by David Massey.
This year’s County Hurdle should be run at a very solid pace, with quite a few of those towards the foot of the handicap likely to go forward. That’s been a good tactic over the first two days, but as I type this up, the wind is getting up and it’s blowing quite hard down the track, so the front-runners are going to be feeling the force of it as they turn in.
So I’m looking for something that can sit fairly handy in behind the leaders, getting some cover, that’s got Cheltenham form. Plus something that’s got a bit of added stamina needed to win this and that’s nicely weighted. Step forward Jubilee Alpha.
She’s always had a bit of quality about her - a winner at Listed level, placed at Grade 2 in bumpers - and for all she hasn’t won this season, she’s had some tough tasks made harder by the fact she isn’t the biggest for carrying big weights. Twice this season she’s humped 12st around, and I think she’ll appreciate the fact she’s only got 10-11 to carry here, a far lesser burden for one of her size. A winner over 2m4f here last April, she’ll not mind the ground either; yes, there’s some rain coming, but this strong wind is going to blow it through and it’ll dry it up very quickly too. It won’t ride much slower than good in my opinion by Friday afternoon. Hopefully she can put a smile on Paul Nicholls’ face, as there wasn’t one on Thursday after No Drama This End, I can assure you.
Punters have started to cotton on to Tellherthename too, on his first start for Dan Skelton. A very useful novice for Ben Pauling, it never really happened for him when moved to Jonjo last year, but the quotes coming from the trainer have been very positive. It appears he’s working well and has refound his mojo. If that’s the case, they have a well-handicapped horse on their hands, and one that has the potential to be a gamble on the day.
Sinatra is the more obvious Skelton runner in the race, and his form has been franked by Act Of Innocence this week, third to that one in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon last month. As an aside, how well handicapped is second-home Glance At Midnight? No wonder the Skeltons went to 245k to buy it not long after. He will race close to the pace, without necessarily being at the head of it. A mark of 133 looks very workable, and for your placepots and each-way multis on the day, he’s a must.
County Hurdle Recent Winners
County Hurdle Pace Map
County Hurdle Selection
Suggestion: Jubilee Alpha
Matt's Tix Pix: Mixing up the Skeltons and Mullins
Not many people's favourite race at the Festival but, given that - unlike all the gelding G1's - its runners can actually reproduce, it is an important one for the breed. The Irish have had a chokehold on matters since its inception in 2021 and they are again well represented at the top of the market.
Dinoblue is a warm favourite in her bid to defend her title, something none of the three to attempt that previously have managed to do. All five winners to date were aged seven or eight. Dinoblue is nine. Those facts won't stop her but they do hint at the difficulty in keeping mares sweet to that sort of age: most of the half decent ones have gone to the paddocks by this time and it will be this mare's turn soon enough.
In her favour, she's versatile with regards to ground and trip, and her Festival form reads 9221. Against that is the fact she was sent off 11/8, 7/2, 15/8 and 6/4 - favourite each time; based on those odds, I guess she's just about on her expected winners score! Excluding seasonal debuts, her form in the past two campaigns reads 411111, very often at prohibitively cramps odds. It's not her fault that she's faced limited opposition but it does leave the door ajar to a potentially more battle hardened mare.
Step forward Spindleberry, unbeaten in five chase starts before pulling up in the Irish Gold Cup last time. That was an odd prep for the Mares' Chase but it also nods to the esteem in which she's held by connections. But it was still an odd prep! Let's pretend that didn't happen and instead judge her on the prior quintet of chase wins. She was given a huge RPR of 160 for winning a Listed race at Doncaster, but her two next best figures are 152 and 145. The two horses behind her at Donny to have run since have both been beaten favourites on their subsequent starts and I'm calling bluff on the big number. I also really don't like that 'P' last time. If she's better than I think she is, fair enough.
Panic Attack is even older than Dinoblue - she's ten - and is enjoying an Indian Winter (if you see what I mean) having won three in a row including, in pre-decimal money, the Mackeson and the Hennessy - remember when booze firms sponsored horse races? As if that heady autumnal double wasn't enough, you have to watch her romp at Newbury last time to believe it. Not in terms of the strength of the performance or the ratings it produced, but just from a sheer joie de vivre perspective. You can catch it here - I just watched it again (again) and it is a thing of beauty. As impressive as she unarguably was, the level of that form - and of her two big handicap wins, off 135 and 139 - is at least 7lb shy of the pick of Dinoblue's.
Interesting, if hard to peg, is Diva Luna. The Ben Pauling inmate was 3rd in last year's Dawn Run - a race contested by the last three Mares' Chase winners a season prior to their big Friday successes. She's done all that's been asked of her in two facile successes over fences this season but has recorded barely a murmur on the Richter scale speed or form wise in this context. She's been off the track 92 days - "whacked a joint" according to the trainer - which is not ideal. But he's still talking up her chance and I respect that.
The heart breaker for me would be Only By Night, backed at 100/1 here for the Champion Chase. To be fair, she'd have had place chances at best there, whereas in this field she is a credible win option. Her form against the boys - Majborough, Jango Baie, L'Eau du Sud et al - reads very well in this company, but she is stepping up from two to two and a half miles for the first time over fences (she was thumped in a heavy ground 2m4f G1 novice hurdle two years ago).
I think she'll stay - she's normally waited with and will be given every chance to get home - and she handles most ground. It's interesting that they've returned the cheekpieces that didn't seem to help especially in her first try with them last time.
The novice July Flower won a trip and (other) track novice chase here at the November meeting before running a respectable third to Romeo Coolio and Irish Panther in a G1 at Christmas. Neither of those showed up well this week and she looks to have a little to find with more experienced mares.
Mares' Chase Recent Winners
*New race in 2021
Mares' Chase Pace Map
It appears they'll go quick, with both Dinoblue and Diva Luna usual taking their fields along. There are two or three others who can show themselves early, too, so it'll likely be a fair test.
Mares Chase 2026 Pace Map
Mares' Chase Selection
This is quite a messy race. Dinoblue has the best form, Panic Attack has created the winningest (sic) visual impression, and there are a good few up-and-comers with place prospects at least. The top two in the market have won four of the five renewals to date, and the third pick won the other one, so it may not be a race to get too cute with. That said, I'm going to chance Only By Night each way for small money. She showed plenty against the fellas in both the Arkle and a G1 at Punchestown last term to suggest she's not far off the pick of these mares.
Suggestion: Try Only By Night each way at 15/2
Matt's Tix Pix: Dinoblue on A; Only By Night, Diva Luna and Panic Attack on B
3.20 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)
Previewed by Matt Bisogno.
"What's this?"
"I durrn't knur, it's all coover'd in't mood"
"It's a pottairr-toe, lad".
You need to be as old as me to get that reference to a crisps advert from the 1970's, but any vintage should by now be able to grasp the nub of geegeez's approach to solving the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle, affectionately known as "the potato race" - they're a spuds firm, you see...
The key to betting this race is to expect something different to happen from what has been happening most of the season.
Just two winner returneds a single figure price since At Fishers Cross in 2013 - and both of those were well backed Willie's in the lead up to the race - so we're going to be taking a swing. In fact, I'd played last year's 6/1 scorer Jasmin De Vaux at 33/1 after the Dublin Racing Festival. Bully for me, though I did highlight his case on this basis prior to last year's win right here, and that's a nod to the sideways thinking required here.
So here's the plan: we're looking for a horse that has the class to have been running in Graded races - perhaps even Grade 1's - but without the necessary turn of foot to win such events, especially when the field sizes are small. This was JdV last year, including his Alby win:
Won a big field maiden hurdle, 4th in back to back G1 novices at shorter, won a big field Albert Bartlett.
And in 2024, Stellar Story at 33/1 was another archetypal winner:
Small field Graded form in defeat, a big field maiden hurdle win to start the season, and then boom. Like JdV, SS had won a bumper and also an Irish point.
Both of those horses ran fourth in the Grade 1 Nathaniel Lacy at DRF, and this year's 4th has a similar looking profile at a similarly huge price. He's called Riskaway, and he won a big field maiden in the autumn before getting outpaced in a four-runner dawdle over 2m4f - and then seemed to weaken late on in the aforementioned G1. It is always the case with these types of play that they could massively bomb out, but he fits the identikit and he's... 50/1!
Also from that DRF G1 is Kazansky, like Riskaway trained by Gordon Elliott. He was second at Leopardstown, doing his good work late and suggesting the longer trip and presumed quicker tempo may play to his A game.
The other angle into the Albert Bartlett, which sometimes overlaps with the one showcased above, is "the wrong Willie". Mullins has won this in recent years with horses priced at 18/1 and 16/1 as well as 5/1 and 6/1 - both the shorties well punted in the lead up to the race. Paul Townend has ridden three of that quartet, though he was second rider behind Ruby in the first of the years. Doctor Steinberg is Closutton's obvious contender, having won the Nathaniel Lacy. But he has no form in big field hurdle races, the tempo here almost certain to be a new experience for him. He might cope, and he might be very good and just win - but as I hope you can see by now, that's not really the way to bet this one.
Perhaps the horse Sortudo beat in his maiden - Jalon d'Oudairies - can step up. A dual bumper winner in 2023, he was 3rd to Jasmin de Vaux in the 2024 Champion Bumper before missing the entirety of the following season. This term, after that pipe opener behind Sortudo, he just got outsped by the decent Frankie John over 2m4f before winning his maiden by 27 lengths at 1/10 odds!
The G1 element comes from his Champion Bumper run, and we have to take a bit on trust that he can run to that level over obstacles: the evidence suggests he probably can. Seven-year-olds have comfortably the best win strike rate even if more six-year-olds have won the 'spuds'; that's because the latter age group has been represented by nearly two and a half times as many runners. You can see from the trends below that the winners in 2024, 2022, 2018, 2015 and 2010 were all 7yo, and returned 33/1, 18/1, 33/1, 14/1 and 33/1 respectively.
Road Exile has a 'sort of' profile for this race. The missing component is any sort of form over a distance - he's run exclusively at two ish miles to date under Rules - but he was a rallying nose second in a 2m2f bumper and also won his point over three miles... so maybe he is more interesting that I thought! He managed to get it done in a 26-runner maiden hurdle before being predictably run out of it by the smart flat horse Sober in a three horse G2 over the minimum. He's definitely worth chancing on this big step up in trip.
The one I like most from the top of the market, and aged seven coincidentally, is Thedeviluno. Big field maiden win? Tick - and beat Skylight Hustle no less. Outpaced in small field Graded race? Tick - and by Doctor Steinberg no less. Shown reserves of stamina? Tick - when running on from the rear to win the G2 River Don at Doncaster by five lengths on very soft ground.
Another Elliott runner, Spinningayarn, was quite well backed last week. He has the big field maiden win and followed that up in a five-runner rated novice hurdle. That's decent form and there'll doubtless be more to come, but it's not the profile we're looking for here.
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Recent Winners
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Pace Map
Always a ton of pace in the 'spuds' and it'll take a lot of getting.
Albert Bartlett 2026 Pace Map
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Selection
If I was betting one at the head of the betting, it would be Thedeviluno, hands down. But I'm not. Even though he's having a tricky week (at time of writing, after Wednesday's racing), I'm playing three big-priced Gordies against the field in Kazansky, Jalons d'Oudairies and Road Exile. Thedevilunotakethehindmost.
Suggestion: Roll with something slow at a price. Some suggestions in the sentence above.
Matt's Tix Pix: Thedeviluno, Kazansky on A, many more on B.
The highlight of the whole week for many is the Gold Cup, a test of stamina and class over more than three and a quarter miles.
Defending champion Inothewayurthinkin has been a shell of his dual Festival-winning self this season, beaten 53 lengths in the John Durkan, 41 lengths in the Savills, and falling at the last when exhausted and beaten in the Irish Gold Cup. It's true that, prior to winning his Gold Cup, he'd not won - that previous season being beaten 36 lengths, 15 lengths and seven lengths in the same three races. Whilst there remains an argument that he's a spring horse, this would be a near Lazarine comeback.
From the same stable as Galopin is Gaelic Warrior, routed here as Fact To File went to the Ryanair. Once thought 'gone at the game', he's quietly amassed a formidable record of ten wins from 18 starts, five of them at Grade 1 level. That top tier quintet includes the Aintree Bowl last spring over 3m1f, and he was two noses away from King George glory in that scintillating finish at Christmas. He's since run a nice prep when a five length second to Fact To File in the Irish Gold Cup, with plenty of these behind him that day.
It must be many a year since two British-trained horses have featured so prominently in the betting and there was little more than a half length between The Jukebox Man and Jango Baie in the King George. That the former won and the latter was out of the frame illustrates what a bobby dazzler of a finish it was. TJM, famously owned by Harry Redknapp, comes here on a five-timer and is unbeaten in his first four chase starts including the Grade 1 Kauto Star (Feltham as was) as well as the King George, both over three miles at Kempton.
He looked a strong enough stayer at Christmas, getting up on the line having not been the quickest over the final fence, but we have to guess at his stamina reserves on a stiffer track and with more than an extra quarter mile to run. He was agonisingly chinned in the Albert Bartlett of 2024, on heavy ground, so there's obvious stamina in the locker.
I wonder how many horses turned up in the Gold Cup having won the Arkle a year earlier? That's the non-standard route taken by Jango Baie, who was outpaced until that two mile novice chase fell apart in front of him. That is not to decry his performance, under a brilliant Nico de Boinville ride; it is simply a fact that without his shuddering blunder Majborough would have won, and further that Only By Night seems to need delivering literally on the line to get her nose in front. Candidly, I'm not sold on his form or his stamina capabilities in what looks likely to be a bit of a war of attrition. If I'm wrong, hats off, but the Ascot run could have flattered him (main market rival pulled up), and he was close but still behind three other horses in the King George.
I am a big fan of Haiti Couleurs but not in a fast ground Gold Cup. I can see him winning very good races after today but surely he'll be run off his feet by quicker and classier, but less tough, horses.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Recent Winners
Cheltenham Gold Cup Pace Map
Cheltenham Gold Cup Selection
I don't really have a strong opinion, and only a token suggestion is the classy Gaelic Warrior. He doesn't have the stamina of some of these but he ought to travel beautifully through the race. You could make some sort of case for most of them, though.
4.40 Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase (Class 2, 3m 2 1/2f)
Previewed by Rory Delargy.
Wonderwall was a slightly surprising winner of this last year and returns to defend his crown. His form over fences in the UK was nothing special, carrying an official rating of just 118 into this contest, but he was transformed in points by Sam Curling and was a worthy winner from Its On The Line and Willitgoahead who both reoppose. The winning margin was a neck, but Wonderwall idled before rallying to win and he must be considered a player with Rob James again in the saddle. He’s raced just once this season, winning a point at Dromahane in November, but connections report that he is “in terrific form and primed for tomorrow."
Curling is a talented trainer of pointers and staying chasers and also has another ex-English runner here in Wrappedupinmay, who left Paul Nicholls last year with a rating of 118, and has improved in points for Curling, with his only defeat coming first time up in a ladies’ open. He’s beaten Ryehill and Mac’s Charm on his last two starts between the flags on soft and heavy ground, and will relish any rain that falls, but it’s worth noting that the runners-up in those points were well beaten in the Tetratema Cup Hunters Chase at the weekend.
Its On The Line has been runner-up in this race for the last three years and it could be argued that he should have won last season, running on strongly to join Wonderwall up the hill but then outbattled by that rival. Nonetheless, his record here ought to be considered a positive rather than a negative, and he’s still young enough to succeed, having his first run in this when a raw six-year-old. Derek O’Connor is considered the finest amateur riding in Ireland and is always a positive here, but his only win in this race, surprisingly, came aboard Zemsky 15 years ago.
Its On The Line has been beaten twice in points this season but won a well-contested hunter at Down Royal at Christmas, beating Willitgoahead and Con’s Roc. That pair are also of interest, with the former third in this last year fairly shortly after joining Gordon Elliott. He flopped at Aintree and Punchestown before returning to form at Down Royal and has claims at his best, but it’s hard to bank on from the Elliott stable this week, a remark which also applies to Chemical Energy.
CON’S ROC was an eyecatcher at Down Royal, forced to switch between the last two fences and running on best of all. He failed to qualify for this race last year, despite an impressive point win over Willitgoahead at Limerick, needing to win a point after that but finishing second to Rocky’s Howya, who was only 4th at Limerick. That hunter win counted towards this year’s qualification and he sealed his place with another hunter chase win (at Fairyhouse). Darragh Allen is his regular rider and I’m quite sweet on his chances, with the collateral form stacking up well, and the extra yardage likely to suit this sound jumper.
Panda Boy was a useful handicap chaser who has won two hunter chases since switching to this sphere, beating good yardsticks in Hunter’s Yarn at Naas and Lifetime Ambition at Thurles. He has a mixed record in big fields and I was interested to hear Patrick Mullins say he thought the horse was enjoying taking on fewer rivals in his new role. He can sulk, as he did in the Grand National a couple of years back, getting badly behind, but is very useful on his day. My main concern with him is that John Gleeson has limited experience over fences under rules, with just one win to his name to date.
Stattler is now with Faye Bramley and the mount of Patrick Mullins, but he was workmanlike at best winning a hunter at Fakenham last month and doesn’t look the force of old. Barton Snow is a prolific winner in points and hunters for Joe O’Shea but while he’s won at a sharp 3m, he’s a winner over two miles here and there has to be a question about his ability to stay this extended trip. O’Shea also has Gracchus de Balme, who won the Aintree Foxhunter last year, but he’s a moody sort who disappointed last time and was readily beaten by Music Drive over C&D in May. Music Drive was fourth in this race under Ellie Callwood last year and is clearly suited by track and trip, so needs a second look, but Callwood lacks experience and looked rather weak in the finish last year.
Golden Son is likely to be ridden forward by Olive Nicholls for her father, and he’s won both starts in hunters this year. He could do better, but I think it will stretch his stamina to the limit if he tries to make all, and he might be more appealing at Aintree or Punchestown. Stablemate Shearer is useful, but there is no real reason to expect him to better his creditable fifth in this race 12 months ago. The others are all 40/1 or bigger, and while a couple of those are capable of outrunning their odds, the above look the main contenders on paper.
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Recent Winners
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Pace Map
The map only shows Rules form, so ignores point to points. So it might not be very indicative. The field size suggests there'll be plenty of pace on at least, I'm just not sure from where it comes.
The Irish have won 10 of the last 15 renewals with Elliott and Mullins responsible for 4 wins each.
Mullins has targeted, and won, this race with some very decent horses since it's inception (Don Poli & Galopin Des Champs) and it's obviously a race he likes to win while keeping one eye on the future.
Before the Festival started I took an in depth look at the Mullins handicap winners and part of this research found that all 8 handicap hurdle winners he's trained over the last 9 years had exactly the same profile. We can cover all 4 of his winners of this particular race going back to his first winner in 2011 using the same stats but concentrating solely on the 5 and 6yo's he's sent to this race. If we slightly adjust these stats it shows:
All 4 winners of the Martin Pipe were 5-6yo
All 4 had not previously run in a handicap
All 4 had been rested at least 20 days since their last start
All 4 were rated 134+
All 4 were 12/1 or shorter
All 4 last ran over hurdles at 2m-3m
Applying these 6 simple stats to the Mullins runners since 2009 would have found all 4 winners and 2 places from just 11 such runners.
So what does it mean for this year's race?
Mullins has 5 runners this year and we can see that it's only KEL HISTOIRE that ticks all the boxes from those 6 race trends.
He's finished 5th in two 2 mile Grade 3's, where he's looked a little outpaced, and he should appreciate this step up to 2m4f here. Having a very strong trends profile and being owned by JP McManus (like 2 of the last 7 winners) he's obviously attracted the attention of the bookmakers and is towards the top of the betting market. Although the favourite hasn't won since 2011 (Mullins trained that winner), the race has tended to go to the fancied runners with 5 of the last 8 winners returning at 8/1 or shorter.
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Recent Winners
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Pace Map
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Selection
It's a race for the plot horses from the big Irish stables and Kel Histoire is another runner who fits that bill. It looks very much like Mullins is looking to improve on his current tally of 4 winners in the race with a runner that will be well worth keeping an eye on when he goes chasing.
Suggestion: KEL HISTOIRE 1pt
*
And that's a wrap for Cheltenham Festival 2026. The first half of the week was very tough if you had nice prices on the horses sent off odds on; but plenty of handicap fancies prevailed. Regardless of how you're going to this point, 'Give Back Friday' is an opportunity for both punter and bookie to return something to the other side - let's hope it's us players who are on top.
Before closing, a MASSIVE thank you to the brilliant panel of experts who have shared their thoughts here this week. All of Rory Delargy, David Massey, Dave Renham and Gavin Priestley are absolute judges and, while four races each is the most minute microcosm on which to judge them, it's enough to see some of their workings out and the way the construct their cases (and entertainingly write them). I've enjoyed editing and publishing them enormously, and I hope you've enjoyed reading.
Be lucky.
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/galopindeschamps_langerdan_cheltenhamMartinPipe2021.jpg319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2026-03-12 16:53:272026-03-12 17:18:34Cheltenham Festival 2026: Day Four Preview, Tips
So, that’s Cheltenham over come the weekend, but this Saturday there is still plenty of racing action as the ITV cameras head to Uttoxeterfor the Midlands National, plus they are also at Kempton for a jumps fixture.
As always, we’ve got all the trends and stats for all the LIVE ITV races – we hope they help pin-point a few winners.
Only 3 past runnings
Dan Skelton (twice) and Peter Bowen have won the race before
1 winning favourite
Dan Skelton has won the last two runnings
All winners carried between 11-2 and 11-10
All winners aged between 7-9 years-old
All winners priced 8/1 or shorter
Trainer James Owen has a 29% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Joe Tizzard has a 29% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track
Jockey Jack Tudor is just 2 from 56 over hurdles at the track
Only 3 previous runnings
Red Risk won the race last season
Paul Nicholls, Dan Skelton and Kim Bailey have won the race before
No winning favourite yet
Two of the 3 winners carried between 10-6 and 10-11
Two of the 3 winners aged 6-7
Trainer Olly Murphy has a 21% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Joe Tizzard has a 27% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Emma Lavelle is just 1-34 (3%) with her hurdlers at the track
Jockey Jack Tudor is just 2 from 56 over hurdles at the track
3:00 – Jenningsbet Midlands Grand National Chase Handicap (Listed Race) Cl1 4m1f110y ITV4
20/22– Aged 9 or younger
20/22 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences before
19/22 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
18/22 – Carried 10-12 or less
18/22 – Won by an Irish bred horse
17/22 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
15/22 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
15/22 – Unplaced favourites
14/22 – Had never run at Uttoxeter before
14/22 – Carried 10-10 or less
12/22 – Officially rated 135 or less
13/22 – Returned a double-figure-price in the betting
12/22 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
10/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/22 – Won last time out
4/22 – Trained by David Pipe
3/22 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
3/22 – Winning favourites
2/22 - Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
12 of the last 15 winners aged 8 or 9
The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 11/1
5 of the last 12 winners were ridden by a conditional jockey
19/22 – Aged 8 or younger
18/22 – Carried 10-9 or more
15/22 – Returned 7/1 or less
14/22 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
14/22 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
13/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/22 – Never raced at Uttoxeter before
13/22 – Had won over at least 3m (chases) before
13/22 – Placed last time out
12/22 – Aged 7 years-old
10/22 – Unplaced favourites
6/22 – Won last time out
4/22 – Trained by Harry Fry (4 of last 11 runnings)
3/22 – Winning favourites
3 previous runnings
Trainers Harry Derham, Nicky Henderson and L J Morgan have won the race before
No winning favourite yet
All winners carried between 11-6 and 11-8
All winners 5/1 or shorter
All winners aged between 6-8
Jockey Tom Bellamy is 7-32 (22%) riding over fences at the track
2:40 – Virgin Bet A Good Bet Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m5f ITV4
2 past runnings
Dan Skelton and Nicky Henderson have won the race before
Both winners aged 6-7
Both winners carried 11-2 to 11-4
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 28% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Martin Keighley has a 40% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Gary/Josh Moore are just 1 from 28 with his hurdlers at the track
Jockey Tom Bellamy is just 1-36 riding over hurdles at the track
Jockey Toby McCain-Mitchell is 2-3 (67%) riding over hurdles at the track
5 previous runnings
Teddy Blue won on this card 12 months ago
4 of the last 5 winners aged 7 (1) or 8 (3)
All 5 winners carried between 11-1 and 11-6
Paul Nicholls has trained 2 of the last 3 winners
Harry Cobden has ridden 2 of the last 3 winners
3 of the last 5 winners aged 8
The last 3 favourites have won
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 21% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Fergal O’Brien has a 22% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
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https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/stt.png320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2026-03-12 12:30:042026-03-13 10:06:29Sat TV Trends: 14th March 2026
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