Racing Insights, Tuesday 20/08/24

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...plus we also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 3.10 Kempton
  • 5.40 Nottingham
  • 5.50 Roscommon
  • 6.10 Nottingham

And I think we'll take a look at Zero Carbon and the 4.45 Kempton, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 7f on standard to slow polytrack...

Only Brasil Power managed to win last time out and that was his second win in his last five starts, whilst all bar Revolutionise and Follow Your Heart have won at least one of their last seven.

This pair have lost ten and nine on the bounce respectively, although the former was the only other runner in this field to make the frame last time out. This pair might struggle again here as they're both up in class, as is bottom weight Big R, but top weight Hieronymous is down a grade here, whilst Wallop wears a visor for the first time today.

Aljati hasn't raced for 81 days but all his rivals have had at least one run in the past 46 days with four of them being seen in the last week!

Pjanoo is the only runner without a previous course or distance win. Wallop and Big R have already won here over 6f, whilst Aljari and Society Lion have won over this trip elsewhere. Five of the field (Hieronymus, Zero Carbon, Brasil Power, Revolutionise & Follow Your Heart) are course and distance winners and Instant Expert looks like this...

...with Zero Carbon leading the way, as you'd expect. Revolutionise has struggled to win over this trip, Follow Your Heart looks weak on going/track, whilst Society Lion has yet to win at Class 4 on the A/W and having only made the frame once in those six defeats...

...is likely to struggle again, although Revolutionise's numbers now appear much better. If we then look at past similar races, our draw analyser says that whilst there's not a huge draw bias at play here, those drawn highest have had less success than the others...

...which isn't great news for Hieronymus, Brasil Power, Zero Carbon or Big R, but I'm not sure the draw alone would mean a horse couldn't win here if the correct tactics were employed and the best tactics here would be to hit the front as soon as you could and then stay there. Easier said than done of course, but here's how those 300+ races have panned out...

...which looks to be more conclusive than the draw stats and would indicate that Zero Carbon might well be in the box seat, if his last three runs are anything to go by...

Summary

I initially thought that LTO C&D winner Brasil Power would be the one to beat here, but he doesn't seem well suited by either pace nor draw. he's also up 5lbs here and that might well make him susceptible to Zero Carbon. He's the qualifier from the shortlist and caught the eye on Instant Expert. He's got the ideal pace profile to win this to add to his three previous course and distance wins.

Brasil Power looked a bit shot at 9/4 as of 5pm Monday, meaning that Zero Carbon's 7/1 ticket was very appealing and borderline for an E/W option.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 17/08/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following set of runners...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.45 Curragh
  • 2.45 Ripon
  • 3.20 Ripon
  • 5.40 Bath
  • 5.45 Curragh
  • 6.20 Market Rasen

Both the TJC report and the free list have a Class 2 handicap, but 18-runner sprints aren't my bag and I've not covered an NH race for some while, so let's head to Scotland for the 6.35 Perth, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over what will be near enough 2m½f after a 57 yard rail adjustment. They'll go right-handed and tackle eight flights of hurdles in a bid to land the £13k first prize...

Enthused, Castel Gandolfo and Kinbara Firstdraft all won their last hurdle races, whilst King's Castle has won four on the bounce and the entire field have all won at least one of their last seven efforts.

Only Castel Gandolfo raced at Class 2 last time out, landing a 17-runner handicap at Market Rasen but Cuban Cigar and Here Comes Georgie both step up one level from Class 3, whilst the remainder of the field all raced at Class 4 last time out.

Today will be just the second time in a handicap for Kinbara Firstdraft, Here Comes Georgie and Annie Agnew with the first of that trio one of four (Cirque Royal, Scots Poet and Well Planted being the others) past course and distance winners, although the entire field have all won at least once over a similar trip to this one, but it's Enthused who stands out on Instant Expert's 2-year form overview...

King's Castle should love the good ground here, but Castel Gandolfo and Well Planted have several defeats on this going and in general! They have both also struggled over the trip, as has Cuban Cigar, whilst Well Planted also has a poor record at this venue and I think I've probably now written enough about him from a win perspective, although when you see his place form, you'd think I was talking about a different horse!

...and in a race where the bookies will pay four (some go five) places, it might be foolish to discount him and also Cuban Cigar entirely as E/W possibles. so, based purely, on the above graphic, the ones who appeal to me from an E/W or placed finish perspective are...

We have no draw stats to contend with here, of course, so let's see what kind of tactics might best be employed to win or make the frame here...

Past similar races have suggested that leaders an prominent runners are best suited to this contest, so in an ideal world, a fair few of the seven runners above will have regularly raced in more advanced positions. We can quickly check their last four (or all three in Annie Agnew's case) outings and they look like this...

...and from this, I think I'm going to set Well Planted and Cuban Cigar aside, although Sod's Law will now dictate that they both run excellent races here. Oslo is also borderline on pace and I think I best be best off concentrating on the quartet who'll chase and hopefully catch Chaos Control.

Summary

So, I've ended up with (in racecard order) Enthused, King's Castle, Kinbara Firstdraft and Annie Agnew and I'd be more than happy to place a small E/W wager on any/all of the four if I can get 8/1 or bigger about them. From a win perspective, it's Instant Expert standout Enthused and the form horse King's Castle who interest me the most and I'd probably take the former to edge out the latter here, but I'd no odds to quote at the time I published my piece.

Have a great weekend and I'll be back on Sunday for a preview for Monday's racing.

Chris



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Racing Insights, Friday 16/08/24

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have produced a pair of qualifiers from the same race...

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards, which for this Friday are...

  • 3.45 Newbury
  • 5.00 Tramore
  • 5.35 Tramore
  • 6.30 Thirsk
  • 6.38 Tramore
  • 7.25 Newmarket

...and I think I'll look at the battle between H4C report runners Aces Wild and Nelson Gay in the 4.10 Wolverhampton, a 7-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed 5f 21yds on standard tapeta...

Only the fast finisher Aces Wild made the frame on their last run, as he won here over course and distance by a head 18 days ago for a third C&D win in the last five months. Elsewhere Pop Dancer won seven races ago, but the rest of the field are winless in seven or more outings with very few placed finishes!

Dubai Station, Ancient Times and Nelson Gay all drop a class from Class 4 today, whilst Mondammej was last seen going down by 7 lengths at Class 2. Phoenix beach steps up in class as he runs for Scott Dixon for the first time, having failed to won any of his last seven for Richard Fahey.

Nelson Gay, Aces Wild and Ancient Times have all raced in the last 2 to 4 weeks, Mondammej and Dubai Station have had a couple of months rest, whilst Phoenix Beach and Pop Dancer return from breaks of 10 weeks and 3 months respectively.

Phoenix Beach is the only one of the seven yet to win over this trip and like Ancient Times, he has yet to win here at Wolverhampton. Of the five course winners, only Dubai Station has yet to win over course and distance as his 5f win came at Haydock and his course win here was over 6f.

The 2-year form shown on Instant Expert isn't exactly littered with wins, but our pair from the H4C report catch the eye, as does Pop Dancer...

The going looks against Dubai Station, Mondammej and Nelson Gay here and Mondammej has a poor return over 5f on the A/W, whilst Phoenix Beach's record at Class 5 isn't great. Dubai Station and Mondammej are rated some 15lbs and 27lbs lower than their last A/W wins, but that's because they're on losing runs of 16 and 39 races respectively rather than them being better than their mark might suggest and Mondammej's figures don't even improve if we focus on placed finishes either...

And this graphic surely puts paid to any chance of me putting money on him or Ancient Times, even if the pair are situated in what looks the better half of the draw if there is one...

That said, it's a five furlong sprint, so the emphasis in a small field is going to be on early speed and front-runners have dominated those 120 races above...

...providing some 36.7% of the winners and some 27.3% of the placers from just 18.4% of the winners, which based on recent outings...

...could be good news for connections of Pop Dancer.

Summary

Not well drawn and not particularly suited by the pace profiling today, Aces Wild still won last time out over this course and distance from stall 7 (as he is today) from the rear of the field. He's the only runner coming here in any real form and must be the one to beat despite the above analysis suggesting he might struggle.

I'd no odds to hand when I wrote this piece just after 3pm on Thursday, but I suspect he'll go off shorter than 2/1, which isn't normally my bag. That said, he's a course and distance specialist in good form and 2/1, if available, might be a very good price.

Elsewhere, the rest of the field are much of a muchness, but the one I have some interest in is Pop Dancer, who scored well enough on Instant Expert, has been drawn in stall 1 and is likely to lead. He was 3 lengths behind Aces Wild last time out, but re-opposes 4lbs better off which might get him a little closer.

 



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Racing Insights, Thursday 15/08/24

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 2.25 Salisbury
  • 2.45 Chepstow
  • 4.40 Salisbury
  • 5.20 Tramore
  • 5.30 Windsor
  • 8.40 Chelmsford

...from which I'm going to look at Race 23 of the 2024 Racing League aka the 5.30 Windsor, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a mile around the figure of eight on good to firm ground...

...featuring a quartet of LTO winners.

Great Acclaim won at Chepstow a week ago and has three wins and a place from his last five starts, Placeholder won at Wolverhampton 23 days ago and has won two of her three races to date, whilst Sunny Corner comes here on a hat-trick having won three and been a runner-up once in his last four starts. Bottom weight Zenzic got off the mark at the fourth time of asking when scoring at Yarmouth a week ago.

Starliner won six races ago, Rascal Recknell won three races ago, Candomore won four back and Post Rider has finished 1132 in her last four, but Bayadere is winless in her four outings.

Placeholder and Sunny Corner are both denoted as fast finishers and both step up a class here, as do handicap debutant Bayadere and Post Rider, whilst Zenzic is up two classes as he runs in a handicap for just the second time.

All nine bar Rascal Recknell have had at least one run in the last four weeks, but he now returns from a near 8-week break during which he was gelded. Starliner will wear blinkers for the first time today, whilst it's a debut in cheekpieces for Post Rider.

Starliner, Rascal Recknell and the maiden Bayadere are all yet to win over today's trip and sole track winner, Great Acclaim won over course and distance back in May at the start of his current five-race purple patch and this is reflected below in our feature of the day, Instant Expert...

We've a relatively inexperienced bunch under today's conditions, but I'm probably already against Bayadere on good to firm ground and Starliner over today's trip. The latter has also only won one of six at this grade and Rascal Recknell's record isn't much better, so whilst Instant Expert isn't necessarily pointing me towards a bet just yet, it was worth looking, because I've already been able to cross four of the nine runners off my list of contenders.

My next port of call is draw analysis, which tells us that those drawn in the three lowest stalls have fared best...

...supplying us with 46.25% and 38.43% of the placers from just 33.1% of the runners, which in isolation could be good news for Placeholder, Candonomore and Bayadere, whilst those drawn centrally (Starliner, Zenzic and Rascal Recknell) would appear to have the worst of the draw. That said, over a race as long as a mile with both left and right-handed turns, the draw really shouldn't be the deciding factor here and at Windsor race positioning/tactics aka pace is often key and if we look at how those races above were won...

..it has certainly been a case of the further forward you can race, the better! This would appear to suit Post Rider most, if this field's recent races are anything to go by...

Summary

For me, the form horse Great Acclaim should be the one to beat here, but his tendency to run in mid-division may well cause him to lose this one, if front-running Post Rider is afforded an easy/soft lead. That said, Post Rider herself is no slouch and comes here in good nick and was only beaten by half a length last time out and she'd be my pick here in what looks like being a really tight contest.

Great Acclaim should still make the frame but will need to work hard to make up ground and if pushed for another runner to make the frame, I'd probably go with either Placeholder or Sunny Corner and it was no real surprise to see that bookies had these four runners at the head of the market at 3.45pm on Wednesday...

Zenzic could easily make the frame too, based on his LTO win and is almost at a backable price for E/W purposes, but i'm not interested in the bottom two of the market and unless I've read the race incorrectly, Bayadere seems way too short on handicap debut.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 14/08/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 4.50 Beverley
  • 6.05 Ffos Las
  • 6.50 Gowran Park
  • 7.00 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have sadly only highlighted one runner for Wednesday and even that one isn't going to run...

...so I'll refer back to our free races above, the highest rated of which is the 7.00 Kempton, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed mile on standard to slow polytrack...

None of the dozen runners here managed to win last time out, but the fast-finisher Atlantic Gamble and bottom weight Ring of Light both made the frame in third place. Atlantic Gamble had actually won his previous four races on the bounce and of his rivals, only Monte Linas, Ernies Valentine, Dutch Kingdom and Achillea have won any of their last five races.

Sennockian, Get the Music On and Ring Of Light all won seven races ago and the latter also scored six races ago, but Al Rufaa, City of York, Ivasecret and Dream Pirate are on losing runs of 9, 7, 8 and 10 races respectively.

The hopes that Dream Pirate and Ivasecret might get back to winning ways aren't helped by the fact that they're up one and two classes respectively here, whilst LTO placers Atlantic Gamble and Ring of Light also step up a level, but Achillea is down a class.

Ivesecret wears a visor for the first time today and it will be Ring Of Light's first outing since recent wind operation, which must have been fairly recent as he, like nine of his eleven opponents, has raced inside the last five weeks. Ernie's Valentine has had just over seven weeks off, which shouldn't be too much of an issue, but it's almost ten months since we last saw Monte Linas finish seventh of eleven runners at Wolverhampton.

Only Al Rufaa and Get The Music On have yet to win over today's trip, but both have won here at Kempton over 7f in the past, whilst the other half dozen previous track winners (Ernie's Valentine, City of York, Dutch Kingdom, Atlantic Gamble, Ivasecret and Ring Of Light) have all won over course and distance, meaning that Instant Expert has a fair smattering of green, particularly on the lower half of the card...

...where Dream Pirate looks most vulnerable, especially over the trip. Ring of Light is interesting here, receiving weight all round and posting some good numbers, but runs off a mark 6lbs lower than his last win, which came over course and distance, albeit back in November 2022 after which he took 17 months off!

The place stats from those races above confirms that Dream pirate is likely to struggle and also adds Ernie's Valentine to my 'also-ran' pile...

...but aside from that pair, I'm not ruling any of these out of contention for making the frame just yet. Perhaps the draw might help do that, as runners in stalls 1-7 seem to have had the upper hand in previous similar contests...

..that have tended to go the way of the order in which the horses run with front-runners faring best and hold-up horses faring worst...

...thereby generating this pace/draw heat map.

If we then look back at this field's most recent outings, we can reproduce those heat maps as follows...

...suggesting that Dutch Kingdom has the best pace/draw make-up for this race.

Summary

Dutch Kingdom was the one who seemed best suited by the draw, previous pace data and ultimately the pace/draw combo. He featured well on Instant Expert, aside from not winning too often at Class 4, but he did win his last A/W outing. Whether he's good enough to win here in unclear, but I'd definitely be interested in him if a suitable price could be gained for an E/W option.

If he's not going to win, then maybe the in-form Atlantic Gamble and his useful 7lbs weight for age allowance is the one to beat. He is reunited with the 5lb claimer who rode him to victory here over course and distance on his last A/W run two starts ago and the pair are two from three together.

The rest of the field seem pretty much of a muchness and the one that I might be tempted to take a chance with might be bottom weight Ring of Light on his return from wind surgery. He was third behind Dutch Kingdom last time out, five weeks ago but is substantially better off at the weights today, so could go well here.

A quick look at the market at 5pm suggests that both Dutch Kingdom and Ring of Light could be decent E/W propositions, especially if your bookie is paying four places...



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 13/08/24

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...with two runners to consider along with our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.15 Lingfield
  • 6.30 Hamilton
  • 7.00 Hamilton

...so it makes sense to me for us to look at Good Morning Alex from The Shortlist and the 7.00 Hamilton in general. It's an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m1f on soft ground...

FORM : Giselles Defence won last time out and has won 2 of his last three and has 3 wins and 2 places from his last seven. Lunario comes here on a hat-trick and has 3 wins and 3 places from his last six. Our featured runner Good Morning Alex has won has last three and is 4 from 5 and is 6 from his last 8.

Stand Strong is a 3-race maiden despite making the frame in each of his races, whilst Theoryofeverything is the only other runner without a win in his last five outings, having been beaten in all nine outings since scoring on debut at Doncaster just over 14 months ago.

CLASS : Lots of movers today, as only the afore-mentioned Theoryofeverything raced at Class 3 last time out. Six runners (Arctic Mountain, Indemnity, Tele Red, Bubbles Wonky, Good Morning Alex & Classy Boy) step up from Class 4, whilst Stand Strong, Giselles Defence & Lunario all step up from Class 5. Only Paddy the Squire ran at a higher level last time out, finishing as a Class 2 runner-up.

AGE/WEIGHT : the bottom three on the card (Bubbles Wonky, Good Morning Alex & Classy Boy) are all aged 3 and receive an 8lb allowance for that.

WHAT'S NEW : Paddy The Squire runs for the first time since a wind op and Stand Strong makes a handicap debut and yard debut today on his first run since being gelded.

LAST SEEN : Most of the field have raced in the last 10 to 33 days, but Arctic Mountain (60d) & Good Morning Alex (68d) have had a couple of months rest, whilst it's almost a year (354 days to be precise) since Paddy the Squire was last in action and the thick end of 22 months since Stand Strong lined up.

COURSE/DISTANCE : Seven runners have raced here a total of nine times with Good Morning Alex winning both starts here and Lunario is 1 from 1. As for the 1m1f trip, four runners have a combined 1 win from 5 attempts with Good Morning Alex the sole winner, as his two wins here were at 1m½f and then over this course and distance.

Instant Expert shows those course/distance wins I mentioned above and it's good to see that most of those who have tackled soft ground have managed to make the frame with five of them going on to win. Theoryofeverything looks vulnerable at Class 3 and Good Morning Alex, Arctic Mountain and Giselles Defence are all rated at least 7lbs higher than their last win...

Whilst some of these stood out on form, the field looks quite open based on those graphics above, so let's look and see if the draw might be a factor today...

It doesn't seem to have a huge draw bias, runners in stall 1 have struggled, as have those drawn 10 or higher, but the majority of stalls have similar results to each other and it's probably going to be the pace that is the deciding factor here, as horses willing to crack on with things have had the most success...

...which based on the field's most recent efforts could be more good news for Good Morning Alex...

...and they might well go off at a fair old lick today with no real hold-up types in the race. A 4-race pace average of 2.25 is rarely the lowest score in a race of this many runners and if I was relying on that pace chart above and discounting the runners in stalls 1, 10 & 11 based on the draw stats, I'd be looking at...

...from pace/draw, but I'd be very wary about Stand Strong after such a long absence.

Summary

From pace/draw, I'd consider Good Morning Alex, Arctic Mountain, Lunario and Bubbles Wonky, whilst on form, it would be Giselles Defence, Lunario and our featured runner Good Morning Alex from The Shortlist.

So I'm having Good Morning Alex and Lunario as two of my three for the frame. Bubbles Wonky hasn't ran well in his last three outings, so I'll overlook him, which leaves me with a choice between Arctic Mountain and Giselles Defence as my third runner and whilst there's not much between them, I suspect we'll have more chance of getting an E/W bet out of Giselles Defence, so that where I'll go.

The market looked like this at 4.45pm Monday...

...which means that Lunario is also in E/W territory for me.



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Racing Insights, Monday 12/08/24

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.45 Kempton
  • 3.20 Kempton
  • 4.10 Ayr
  • 7.53 Ballinrobe

...from which I'm going to look at the 4.10 Ayr, a 13-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 7f on good ground...

As is often the case with these Class 6 handicaps, many of the runners have low win strike rates and three of this field (Colour Code, Agnes Grey and Angel of the Bay are a combined 0 from 28 after failing to win any of their 8, 12 and 8 starts respectively.

Following on from this, none of the field managed to win last time out, but Novak and Sir Garfield were runners-up, the latter failing by just a head over this track and trip as recently as Saturday, when the re-opposing Braes of Doune was third, just a further neck behind.

None of the other ten made the frame on their last outing and only Monhammer, Jkr Cobbler, Ahamoment, Sir Garfield, Banner Road and the in-form (8 top 3 finishes from his last 10 races) Braes of Doune have managed a win in their last seven races.

Angel of the Bay and Sir Garfield are still 3 yr olds, so they receive a handy 6lb allowance here and the latter also drops down a class today, as do five others (Trais Fluors, Jkr Cobbler, Ahamoment, Colour Code and bottom weight Braes of Doune), whilst Monhammer and Banner Road both drop in from Class 4.

Sir Garfield had Braes of Doune a neck behind him on Saturday and Colour Code also ran in the same race, but was last home of ten, beaten by almost fourteen lengths, so all three have a quick turnaround, but the entire field have had at least one run in the last seven weeks.

Five of the field (Novak, Monhammer, Jkr Cobbler, Ahamoment & Black Friday) have won over course and distance whilst Banner Road and Braes of Doune have both won here at Ayr over a mile and 1m2f respectively; Sir Garfield won over this trip at Catterick.

The two-year win stats on Instant Expert aren't the best, but Novak, Monhammer, Jkr Cobbler and Ahamoment seem to be the headliners...

...although with so much red around and many runners with low win returns, we're going to need to look at the place stats...

...an they paint a much rosier picture, but I need to whittle this field down now and the way I've decided to go is stick with runners with at least three blocks of green from the first four (going, class, course and distance) columns, although I did let Monhammer sneak in with 2 green and 2 amber...

My runners are strung across the stalls from 4 to 13 (Darbucks will run from 13, not 14 after a non-runner), so I was hoping there's not too much of a draw bias, so I've still got plenty of choices. The draw data suggests that stalls 3 to 7 might be the best places to be berthed from a win perspective, although stalls 8 and above have better place records...

Monday's free feature is pace and those races above have tended to be dominated by front runners...

...whilst our pace/draw heat map identifies the optimum combination for this race, ie a front-runner from stalls 5 to 9...

...and if we check this field's last few races...

...Sir Garfield probably comes closest to filling that brief.

Summary

Sir Garfield had the best last run, scored well on IE and is probably the closest to the ideal draw/pace make-up, so he's in my top three. And if he's in then the in-form Braes of Doune also needs to be in, as they're so closely matched and Braes rarely fails to make the frame and my third runner would be Novak. His last run was his best for some considerable time, he's now 9lbs below his last winning mark and also scored really well on Instant Expert.

So, they're my three against the field. I'd no odds to hand at 4pm Sunday, but I suspect all three will be towards the top of the market and I doubt any will be an E/W price. Sir garfield is the most likely to win, but Novak will offer the best value.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 10/08/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to consider...

for 14-day form...

...and 30-day form...

...to consider in addition to our daily list of 'free' races, which are...

  • 1.45 Curragh
  • 3.05 Newmarket
  • 3.40 Newmarket
  • 4.30 Ascot
  • 5.00 Kilbeggan
  • 6.52 Lingfield

The TJC report has a couple of Class 1 (1 x Gr3 and 1 x Lst) races from nearby (to me, anyway) Haydock park, but the most valuable UK race on Saturday is on our list of free racecards, the 4.30 Ascot, aka the Shergar Cup Mile, a 10-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed mile on good ground...

Top-weight Carrytheone was the only one to win last time out, but New Image was a runner-up and like Carrytheone, has won two of his last five starts and three of his last seven. Yantarni has actually won three of his last four (admittedly at lower grades than this), whilst Talis Evolvere, Tacarib Bay, Spirit Catcher and the reserve Orbaan have all won once in the last seven.

Conversely, Silent Film, Tempus, Bless Him, Bopedro and the reserve Urban Sprawl are currently winless in their last 11, 13, 14, 11 and 17 races respectively.

Spirit Catcher makes a yard debut for Philp Kirby today, whilst Yantarni steps up in class for the second race in a row, despite failing to make the frame last time out.

Tacarib Bay, New Image and Urban Sprawl have yet to win over a mile, but in their defence the first pair have yet to tackle the trip, whilst the latter is 0 from 10! Urban Sprawl has however won here at Ascot before, albeit over 7f, as has Orbaan whilst Tempus and Bless Him have both won over course and distance.

Our two-year form overview via Instant Expert makes for some difficult reading if truth be told and I even included the Class 3 stats in a bid to make the data more palatable, but that failed too!

There's certainly more negative than positive there, especially if the reserve Urban Sprawl looks best suited! My main concerns about these win stats revolve around Carrytheone (going), Silent Film (class), Tacarib Bay (class), Tempus (trip), Bless Him (going, class and track), Bopedro (going, class and trip), Spirit Catcher (class and trip), Yantarni (trip) and Orbaan (going, class, track and trip).

So with so many negative stats, I think we're going to need some help from the place data from the above races...

Doubts/concerns remain about several of these, but I think I'm going to move forward with Carrytheone, Talis Evolvere, Bopedro, Spirit Catcher, New Image and the reserve Urban Sprawl as possible placers based purely on the data above. These are set to run from stalls 2, 3, 5, 6, 8 and 12 (reserve), so of there's any draw bias here, I'm hoping that the lower stalls are the ones to benefit.

Let's check...

...and it looks like stalls 4 to 7 might be the optimal area to run from, so my 2 to 8 range might not be too badly drawn. As for race tactics/pace, those races above seem to have favoured those held up for a late run. it's not a huge advantage, but hold-up horses have won 47.9% of those races and provided 41.7% of the placers, despite only making up 37.8% of the runners...

Therefore, in an ideal world, one or more of my runners drawn in stalls 2 to 8 will be hold-up types. To work out whether that will be the case, we can look at their last few races...

...and of those five, Carrytheone is the confirmed hold-up runner. New Image, Bopedro and Talis Evolvere will also nearer the back than the front too.

Summary

Carrytheone is our only LTO winner, he was one of my chosen half from Instant Expert and has the ideal draw and pace makeup to go well here. He has two wins and a place from his last five and I think he might just have enough to get home ahead of the clearly in-form New Image.

New Image is probably the best horse in the race, but has only won 1 from 6 on Turf and has yet to tackle a mile. His pace profile doesn't quite stack up as well as Carrytheone, but he's going to be thereabouts; it could be tight!

As of 4.35pm on Friday, the market sadly agreed with me about who the best two runners might be...

If I wanted a longer-priced runner for the frame or as an E/W option, then Bopedro is borderline on price, but the 14/1 Talis Evolvere might be the one to outrun his odds.



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Racing Insights, Friday 09/08/24

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for this Friday, but we do still have our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.00 Brighton
  • 3.50 Musselburgh
  • 4.50 Musselburgh
  • 6.00 Newmarket
  • 8.10 Tipperary
  • 8.25 Wexford

...from which, we'll head North of the Border for the 3.50 Musselburgh, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 7f on good to firm ground...

Gressington comes here on the back of a win over 7½f at Beverley for his second success in a six-race career to date and he has also made the frame in two of his four defeats. None of his rivals won last time out, but On A Session (3rd), Judgment Call (2nd) and Dain Ma Nut In (3rd) all made the frame, whilst Adduction, Media Shooter and Moreginplease have all won one of their last seven races.

On A Session, Judgment Call and Ugo Gregory, however, are on losing runs of 18, 8 and 11 races respectively, whilst handicap debutant Dain Ma Nut In is a five-race maiden. Top-weight Abduction and Media Shooter (first-time cheekpieces today) both drop down two classes, but bottom weight Moreginplease is up two levels and Judgment Call also steps up a class. Most of the field have raced in the last 4 to 18 days, but the layoffs of Abduction (27 days) and Dain Ma Nut In (45 days) really shouldn't affect their own performances.

Half of this field (Gressington, Media Shooter, Dain Ma Nut In and Moreginplease) are still only 3 yrs old, so they get a useful 6lbs weight allowance today, but three of them (Dain Ma Nut In and Moreginplease) have yet to win over today's trip, whilst On A Session and Judgment Call have both won over course and distance; the latter doing so in this very race last year off a mark 3lbs lower than today's. Both course wins are shown below on Instant Expert...

...which is a bit of a mixed bag if truth be told. In-form Gressington is probably the one to beat, but track wins aside Judgment Call also has decent numbers. Class 4 wins have also been hard to come by of late for Ugo Gregory, whilst Abduction is winless after racing here seven times in the last two years. The trip doesn't appear to have been particularly kind towards On A Session and Ugo Gregory and these two look very weak from a win perspective and the latter has poor place stats too...

...so I think I'm done with him as a contender. Mind you, the draw stats for past races here do him few favours either...

...with stalls 1 to 5 probably the place to be, whilst from a pace perspective those seventy races above have been dominated by front-runners, although the prominent chasers have done pretty well too...

So, if any of Moreginplease, Judgement Call, Media Shooter, Dain Ma Nut In and Gressington find themselves in the front half of the pack, then they could well be the ones who make the frame or ultimately go on to win. If we then look at how they've approached their last few races...

...we see that three of them fit this particular bill.

Summary

From pace/draw, the three that tick the boxes are Dain Ma Nut In, Judgement Call and Gressington would be the ones to focus upon, but only Gressington comes here in any real form, so almost by default he's the pick here. Sadly he was a 9/4 shot at 6.15pm on Thursday, but he'd be my most likely winner here.

Dain Ma Nut In and Judgement Call were both available at 15/2 and that's borderline E/W territory and I think both stand a good chance of making the frame here based on the evidence above.



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Racing Insights, Thursday 08/08/24

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.00 Brighton
  • 5.52 Leopardstown
  • 6.15 Sandown
  • 6.30 Chepstow
  • 7.52 Leopardstown

...from which, I'm going to look at race 17 of this year's Racing League, the 6.30 Chepstow, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...

This looks like a really open contest with only fast finishing Alpine Girl coming here off the back of a win. She scored at Salisbury almost four weeks ago and now seeks a hat-trick having also won at Lingfield in June. Ingra Tor, Muscika and Gis A Sub all had top 3 finishes last time out.

Dolly Gray, Connies Rose and Havana Rum have all won two of their last six outings and Gis A Sub was a winner two starts ago, but Gisburn, Ingra Tor, Eminency, Coup de Force and Muscika are on losing runs of 9, 12, 13 , 7 and 12 races respectively.

Gisburn does drop down a class here, though and Eminency is down two grades, so that might help their causes, but both Alpine Girl and Gis A Sub are up two classes here. Havana Rum is denoted as being a fast finisher and at just seven days since his last race, he's the quickest turned back out, but all ten have raced at least once in the last seven weeks.

All ten have also won at least once over today's trip, but only two have run/won here at Chepstow. Coup de Force is 1 from 1 here, having scored over 5f on just her second career start way back in June 2021, whilst Connies Rose is 5 from 18 at this venue comprising of 3 wins from 6 at 5f, 1 win from 4 at 7f and 1 win from 8 over this 6f course and distance. She has also made the frame in 6 of her 13 defeats here and her last four results here read 3213 and those are included in the 2-year form shown on Instant Expert below...

..and from a mediocre set of win figures, Connies Rose probably edges it and she's certainly one of the ones standing out on the place data too. Gis A Sub has had enough chances at class/trip already and I suspect another failure to make the frame here. From a win perspective alone, many of these have struggled to get home over today's trip, but with most  of them having decent place results, it might just be a poor race.

On the face of it, there doesn't appear to be a huge advantage from stall positioning...

...but closer inspection suggests that if you were given a choice, you'd take stalls 1 or 2...

..but a look at the pace/draw heat map leads me to believe that pace will be more key to the result here than the draw will...

...and our Pace Analyser backs this thought up...

So, we need to try to work out where the pace in the race might be and if we've got a front-runner drawn low or high, then they should be in the mix. We do this by looking back over the field's last few races...

...where the low-drawn Connies Rose is likely to lead the way.

Summary

This is a tricky contest to call, but Connies Rose is the course specialist and scored best on Instant Expert. She's got a low draw and will set the tempo of the race and I think if all goes to plan, she could at least nick a place from the front. Her results this year (282212314) suggest that she generally fails to hang on for the win, but seven places from nine says she could be an E/W option and at 14/1 with bet365 at 4.45pm on Wednesday, that looks very tempting indeed.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 07/08/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.55 Brighton
  • 3.10 Pontefract
  • 4.45 Wexford
  • 6.00 Sligo
  • 6.15 Wexford

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following UK runners for 14-day form...

...30-day form...

... and 1-year course form...

And although Sir Mark Prescott's Godsend runs in one of our free races, that race only has four runners, so we'll switch our sights to Eve Johnson Houghton and her 6 yr old gelding Uncle Dick, who runs in the 3.55 Brighton, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed mile on good to firm ground...

...a race featuring no LTO winners, although Sandy Paradise, Dream of Mischief, Buy The Dip and Blenheim Star all had top three finishes, whilst Sandy Paradise, Lunatick, Optiva Star, Drink Dry and Uncle Dick have each won one of their last seven. Charming Whisper and Buy the Dip are both two from seven and Blenheim Star has won three of his last five, but Dream of Mischief has lost nine on the bounce.

The bottom three on the card, Uncle Dick, Buy The Dip and Blenheim Star all step up a level from Class 5, but Charming Whisper drops two classes after finishing 4th of 13 in a Class 2 handicap at Newmarket which followed back to back Class 4 wins.

Sandy Paradise has rested the longest of this group, but has only been off track for six weeks, so we shouldn't have any rustiness there. Most of the field last raced 20-26 days ago, but Buy The Dip was actually in action as recently as Monday of this week at Lingfield!

Drink Dry is the only one yet to win over this type of trip and five of the field (Lunatick, Optiva Star, Uncle Dick, Buy The Dip and Blenheim Star) have all won over course and distance with Uncle Dick winning half a dozen races here over the last two years, according to Instant Expert...

...which shows quite a few of these in a decent light, especially the three lowest in the weights, Uncle Dick, Buy The Dip and Blenheim Star. Lunatick and Dream of Mischief have struggled to win at Class 4 and also over this trip, so they're probably the weakest so far. They'll run from stalls 7 and 9, so they won't be helped if there's a low draw bias, which we'll check now...

There's actually not that much of an advantage to be gained from the draw, although those drawn centrally have fared marginally better. Pace, however, is a different matter here at Brighton and the further forward you race, the greater the chance of making the frame and ultimately going on to win..

.

Sadly, there's no real pace in the race and I suspect we'll get a falsely run affair which will play into the hands of those who are normally held up for a run, such as Charming Whisper, Blenheim Star and Dream Of Mischief if this field's recent races are anything to go by...

I think it might well be left to the likes of Buy The Dip to set the tempo of the race here.

Summary

Sandy Paradise, Dream of Mischief, Buy The Dip and Blenheim Star all finished in the first three home last time out, whilst Charming Whisper, Buy the Dip and Blenheim Star all have multiple 'recent' wins under their belts.

Uncle Dick, Buy The Dip and Blenheim Star were probably the picks from Instant Expert , whilst a lack of pace in the race looks like giving and advantage to Charming Whisper, Blenheim Star and Dream Of Mischief, although Buy The Dip might well try to nick a place or even the win from the front if afforded an easy lead.

Based on this précis of my analysis, the three that pop up most in terms of plus points are Blenheim Star, Buy the Dip and Charming Whisper and as of 5pm Tuesday, the field was priced as follows...

..but I think I marginally prefer Blenheim Star to Charming Whisper for the win.



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 06/08/24

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

As usual we still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 6.00 Roscommon
  • 7.00 Roscommon
  • 7.17 Chelmsford
  • 8.47 Chelmsford

...but Salamanca Lad from the The Shortlist feature interests me more than the two UK A/W races above, so let's head towards Trimsaran for the 4.50 Ffos Las, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3yo flat handicap over a left-handed mile on good to firm ground...

SALAMANCA LAD comes here in great form, completing a hat-trick of one mile wins when scoring at Sandown six days ago. A 6lb penalty for a half length win makes life tougher here, as he's now 14lbs higher than five weeks here.

ARKHALIA FLYNN has raced just five time and has made the frame in each of his last three, winning once, He's down in class here after a decent third of eight at Yarmouth almost three weeks ago where the pace of the contest didn't seem to suit him.

DASHINWHITESARGENT got home by a neck in a novice race at Wolverhampton last time out to open his account at the sixth attempt. He's now back in a handicap off the same mark as when second at Epsom in April, so could go well here too.

FASTER BEE has yet to make the frame in six Flat outings and is an 11-race maiden overall. His two handicap runs this season have seen him come home 9th of 11 and last of ten, beaten by around seven lengths each time. He's down in class and weight here, but I don't like him for this one.

RUN FOR THE SUN has yet to win a race after five starts and hasn't made the frame since finishing second of nine at Yarmouth on debut a year ago. Was only third of five at Doncaster last time out, beaten by three lengths and others make more appeal to me here.

QUESTIONABLE has only made the frame once in six starts when she was a runner-up beaten by a short head at Haydock in late-May. She hasn't kicked on since, finishing 4th of 10 and 7th of 9 in two subsequent runs and was a good 8 lengths off the pace last time out.

So far, this looks like a race of two halves with the top half of the card vying for the two places, whilst the bottom half of the card will be trying not to get beat by too much!

Salamanca Lad has won four of twelve starts, but his five rivals are a combined 2 from 33, having made the frame in just 10 of those 33 so I'm guessing that we'll get more info from the stat side of Instant Expert than we will from the win data...

Once again, it looks like we should be focusing on the top half of the card and the class 5 results fort he bottom half tell their own story here. Salamanca Lad's 6lb rise could be an issue, too as could his draw out on stall five. There's not a huge draw bias here, but those drawn lower have tended to get the better of an admittedly small sample size of races...

...but I suspect the tempo of the race aka pace will be more of a determining feature here and that's true to an extent, as leaders have had the best of it here...

and these stats then, in turn, help to form part of this pace/draw heat map...

...which suggests that many pace/draw combos have a chance here, but if we look at how our field have approached their most recent races, we see that the pace is going to come from the two drawn highest, placing them firmly in the green here...

...but it's Arkhalia Flynn who looks most ideally positioned of the six.

Summary

From the write-ups and Instant Expert, the top half of the field ie Salamanca Lad (from the The Shortlist feature), Arkhalia Flynn and Dashinwhitesargent were the ones to focus on. Arkhalia Flynn has the slightly better draw and subsequent pace/draw combo and this allied to Salamanca Lad's 6lb penalty makes Arkhalia Flynn my tentative pick here in what will be a close affair.

Salamanca Lad should, in turn, have too much for Dashinwhitesargent, so it's an Arkhalia Flynn/Salamanca Lad 1-2 for me today.

Only bet365 had opened the book by 4.15pm Monday and here's how they saw it...



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Racing Insights, Monday 05/08/24

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

    • 2.05 Cork
    • 2.45 Lingfield
  • 4.00 Ripon
  • 5.50 Carlisle

...where the 'best' of the three UK races (on paper, at least) would seem to be the 4.00 Ripon, a 6-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good ground...

INTERNATIONAL GIRL won her over course and distance three starts and two months ago and despite only finishing 7th of 14 last time out, was within 4 lengths of the winner at a higher grade than this and now drops in class.

TWELFTH KNIGHT was a course and distance winner here almost a year ago, but has failed to make the frame in any of his six outings since, including four here at Ripon, of which three were over today's trip, so he's now 6lbs below his last winning mark.

FORTAMOUR has only won five of his last thirty-nine races, but all five wins came over course and distance, the latest being in April and he has finished 4th of 13, 3rd of 9 and 3rd of 12 since but remains 5lbs higher than that last win and a step up in class here isn't likely to be helpful.

KINGS MERCHANT also steps up a class after a career-best effort to win last time out for a second win in three starts. He's now 3lbs higher than that win by a short-head at Doncaster 11 days ago, so might find this tougher up in class and weight on his Ripon debut.

MATTICE has won just once (at Redcar) in fourteen attempts at 6f, but has won here at Ripon over 5f as recently as may this year. Has had mixed results since then (4th of 21, 14th of 16, 4th of 13, 11th of 18 and 7th of 11) so a good run is only as likely as a poor one from this inconsistent runner.

BAY BREEZE is four from ten over course and distance and won this race last year off a mark some 11lbs higher than today. He was a decent 4th of 21 at York last time out and he has been eased by 1lb for his return to his favoured track and trip. Having not scored since last year's renewal, he'd not be winning out of turn, although he is back up in class today.

Twelfth Knight is probably/possibly the marginal pick of the pack when it comes to the 2yr win records on Instant Expert, but it's a fairly low bar that has been set...

...Bay Breeze would probably prefer a bot more cut in the ground whilst Fortamour and Mattice have both struggled to win at this trip of late, but both have reasonable enough place stats...

...to suggest they might get involved. These place stats don't really rule any of them out of the equation, although Twelfth Knight does seem to be a win or bust type at this trip and whilst their records at this trip have improved via the place stats, there are now doubts over Fortamour and Mattice in Class 3 company, especially with the former being rated 5lbs higher than his last win.

The draw stats for previous similar races suggest that those drawn lowest have fared best...

...so that could be good for Bay Breeze and Twelfth Knight over a track and trip that have certainly benefited those willing to set the pace...

...and when we combine draw with pace, we get the following heat map...

...which not only suggests that the pace of the race has more bearing on the result than the draw does (which stands to reason over a straight 6f), it also says that Bay Breeze could get away with not being the front-runner thanks to getting the plum draw, but Kings Merchant in stall 6 could do with getting a wriggle on! He'll probably race quite prominently, but looking at this field's most recent efforts, he might well find himself in mid-division behind the two lowest drawn runners...

Summary

I'd expect Kings Merchant to be very popular based on him winning two of his last three, but he only narrowly won last time out and is now up in class and weight. This means he might have to play second fiddle to course and dsitance specialist Bay Breeze, who'll have the rail to guide him and the benefit of receiving weight all round.

The bookies (as of 6pm Sunday) disagree with me, of course..

...but that 12/1 about Twelfth Knight is very interesting from a possible E/W angle.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 03/08/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...14-day form...

...30-day form...

...and 1 -year form...

...in addition to our daily list of fully functional 'free' racecards, which for this Saturday cover...

  • 2.05 Newmarket
  • 3.20 Thirsk
  • 3.35 Goodwood
  • 4.25 Newmarket
  • 5.00 Newmarket
  • 6.10 Hamilton

And I think we'll take a trip to the birthplace of James Herriot to see how James McHenry from the TJC report might get on in the 4.30 Thirsk, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed mile on good ground...

Bottom weight On The River won for the second time in six outings last time out and Thunder Run comes here on a hat-trick after two wins and a runner-up finish from his three career starts. He makes a handicap debut today and although rated joint third highest in the race by the assessor, he has the benefit of a 7lb weight allowance as the only 3 yr old in the field.

Of the ten who failed to win, last time out, only featured runner James McHenry made the frame, finishing as a runner-up at Hamilton, but he did win as recently as three starts ago. La Trinidad won his penultimate race, Mudamer won three races ago and Eldrickjones scored five races back, but Awaal, Padishakh, Empirestateofmind, Brunch, Austrian Theory and Cruyff Turn are on losing runs of 7, 8, 12, 16, 10 and 9 races respectively.

Padishakh runs in a handicap for just the second time today and will be tongue-tied for the first time, whilst Eldrick Jones, Mudamer and Cruyff Turn all step up a level from Class 3. Bottom weight and LTO winner On The River is up two classes, whilst the in-form handicap debutant Thunder Run steps right up from Class 5.

We shouldn't have any fitness issues today, as all twelve have had at least one outing in the last 45 days, but all have also had at least a fortnight's rest. All bar Austrian Theory have won over a similar trip to today's with Empirestateofmind, Thunder Run and On The River all having won over course and distance. In fact Empirestateofmind won this very race back in 2022, but he runs off a mark some 6lbs higher here.

The 2-year flat win records of this group are pretty bleak, according to Instant Expert...

...with only the inexperienced/unexposed Thunder Run catching the eye for the right reasons. James McHenry has done well over this trip and On the River has a decent return from his 16 attempts too, but doubts arise about pretty much the entire field at Class 2, whilst the records of La Trinidad, Empirestateofmind, Brunch, Austrian Theory and Cruyff Turn are poor over this trip. However, they do say you've got to be in  it to win it, which I read as you need to be in the frame if you're going to win and some of these do have reasonable place records from those losses above...

...with Awaal, Empirestateofmind, James McHenry, Thunder Run and On The River being the ones I'd be most interested in at this point. They're going to emerge from stalls 4, 8, 9, 11 & 12, so I'm rather hoping that if there's any draw bias here that it favours those drawn higher than halfway!

Fortunately, it does appear that although the bias isn't massive, those runners drawn in stalls 7 or higher do seem to have an advantage, which is good news for four of the five I highlighted from Instant Expert...

This, of course, brings us to race positioning/tactics aka pace and if we refer back to those sixty-odd races above, we find that they have been dominated by runner racing prominently or leading. Leaders have the best place record, but do appear to have been picked off late on by the prominent stalkers who have the better win record...

..so what I really want to see is some of my Instant Expert 'picks' in the top half of the average pace score chart and if we use  a score of 2.25 as our pace cut-off based on this field's last few runs...

... we find that four of the IE five are in that grouping.

Summary

Instant Expert suggested that Awaal, Empirestateofmind, James McHenry, Thunder Run and On The River might be the ones most likely to make the frame with only Thunder Run having a satisfactory win profile. Of these five, all bar James McHenry would appear to be in the 'right' half of the draw and the same four also look like being on the 'right' side of the pace divide, so I'm just going to choose from Awaal, Empirestateofmind, Thunder Run and On The River.

Thunder Run is in the best form and would therefore be of great appeal to those who just look at recent results, but whilst he does indeed have a great chance here, this represents a far stiffer task than he has faced before and he steps up three classes. He'll probably still win, but a Friday 5pm price of 7/4 doesn't excite me.

Awaal is a best-priced 7/2 second favourite with Bet365, but both On the River and Empirestateofmind are at E/W backable odds of 10/1 and 18/1 respectively and with bookies paying four places here, this pair appeal to me more than a 7/4 bet on the fav.

Have a great weekend!
Chris



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Racing Insights, Friday 02/08/24

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded just the one qualifier for this Friday...

...but we do still have our daily list of 'free' races...

    • 3.00 Goodwood
    • 4.30 Newcastle
    • 4.45 Goodwood
    • 5.05 Newcastle
    • 8.40 Galway
    • 8.50 Musselburgh

Our runner from the H4C report does go in our of out two 'free' races from Goodwood, but both have far too many runners for me, so I'm swerving both, just as I'm going to pass on the other three UK races, all of which look like poor Class 6 affairs. There are however, a couple of Class 2 contests on the Goodwood card, so let's look at the 4.10 race, an 8-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m1f on good to firm ground...

...where I think Haunted Dream's mark of 104 is missing and that My Prospero looks at least 2lbs well in (over Cairo) if this was a handicap.

Cicero's Gift (has won four of his five starts) and Crown Board are the only ones coming here off a win, although the latter may well be in need of a run some 227 days after scoring on debut at Wolverhampton just before Christmas, as might My Prospero who hasn't raced since Champions day at Ascot last October. Sir Busker has been off for just over four months, but the remainder have all raced in the last 45 days.

Aside from our two LTO winners, none of the other six even made the frame last time out, but all bar Haunted Dream and Sir Busker have at least one win in their last six starts, whilst this pair are both on losing runs of ten races, even if the latter is denoted on the card as a fast-finisher. Perhaps he needs to get going sooner?

He wears cheekpieces for the first time today, as does Cairo whilst it's a first time in a tongue-tie for both Haunted Dream and Liberty Lane. My Prospero, Prague and Cairo all drop down in class here after defeats at Group 1, Listed class and Group 1 respectively, but Crown Board's debut win LTO 227 days ago was only a Class 5 novice event on the tapeta.

That win was at least over today's trip and Cicero's Gift & Liberty Lane have also scored over this distance in the past. Cicero's Gift has also won here at Goodwood before, but that was over a mile. Sir Busker has won here over 7f and My Prospero over 1m2f, but no course and distance winners.

Most of these lack experience, but My Prospero, Cicero's Gift and Liberty Lane are probably the ones who stand out most on Instant Expert...

...which doesn't portray Haunted Dream and Sir Busker in a great light although the former has a great place record at Class 2, whilst the latter would seem to 'get' the ground...

Previous similar races here have shown very little in the way of a draw bias, but if you wanted to be picky, you'd choose a more central position if you could...

...but there's probably more advantage to be gained, by ensuing that you were in the 'right' place in the pack and that, for me, is tracking the leader(s)...

...but leading is still preferable to mid-division of further back, which based on recent efforts would seem to favour Prague, Crown Board, My Prospero and Liberty Lane...

...with the obvious caveat that there's a lack of data for the two inexperienced runners at the top of that list.

Summary

I'm a bit torn here, because the form horse here is clearly Cicero's Gift and he scored well enough on Instant Expert but he'd need to race slightly more prominently to not let the race disappear from grasp, whereas My Prospero also scored well on IE and is likely to race more prominently and takes a drop in class here, so i suspect that these two might well be the first two home and if I had to choose between the two, I think I'd go with Cicero's Gift.

As for a placer, I think Liberty Lane or Prague might well fit the bill, but you'll get a better place on the latter, so that's where the value would be according to the market at 3.35pm Thursday...



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