Racing Insights, Saturday 22/06/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC report look like this...

...and they have generated the following UK runners...

30-day form...

and course 1-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.45 Newmarket
  • 3.05 Ascot
  • 4.35 Newmarket
  • 6.25 Ayr
  • 8.oo Lingfield
  • 8.45 Haydock

Again, I'll leave Ascot to the experts on the site, but there is a nice-looking race North of the border on the 'free' list tomorrow evening in the shape of the 6.25 Ayr, a 9-runner, Listed race for fillies and mares aged 3 or over. The trip is a straight 5f on good to firm ground and here’s the card…

Only one of the field, Pepsi Cat, won last time out for a fifth win in her last eight starts, but she’s up from Class 3 here today, so I expect she’ll find this a bit tougher, as will Origintrail who is also up two classes, whilst Conservationist is up one class. Origintrail did make the frame on her last run, but she’s now winless in twelve outings.

Three other runners (Conservationist, Silent Words and So Majestic) have all gone more than four races since their last win and come here on losing streaks of 9, 9 and 10 races respectively, whilst Gaenari is a nine-race maiden and she wears cheekpieces for the first time here; Silent Words will be blinkered for the first time too.

All runners have raced in the last one to five weeks aside from Graceful Thunder who has been off the track for over three months, whilst all bar Azure Blue, Conservationist, Origintrail and Gaenari (obviously) have already won over today’s trip. Only Beautiful Diamond has won here at Ayr, though, landing a similar course and distance Listed race last September.

Relevant form via Instant Expert looks like this…

...where Azure Blue and Beautiful Diamond look best suited for the rask in hand, but we shouldn't ignore Pepsi Cat's half a dozen wins over this trip, especially as she has been in the frame in six of her eight defeats for a very impressive place record over 5f...

Again Azure Blue and Beautiful Diamond stand out with Pepsi Cat a clear third best on the data above. This trio will be berthed fairly closely together in stalls 4, 5 and 7 over a course and distance where the PRB3 scores suggest that stalls 3 to 7 are the best place to be...

...further increasing the chances of the Instant Expert trio of making the frame.If we then look at what tactics would work best here, then there's no standout running style that has outperformed the others, but leaders have made the frame most often and hold-up horses have really struggled to win, which based on this field's most recent outings...

is clearly better news for Beautiful Diamond than it is for Blue Azure from our Instant Expert trio and better news for Graceful Thunder than it is for Origintrail overall.

Summary

Pepsi Cat is the ‘form’ horse, winning LTO and five of her last eight, whilst only Azure Blue, Beautiful Diamond and Graceful Thunder have won any of their last four races.

Of this quartet, Graceful Thunder was the weaker on Instant Expert and appeared to be the ‘worst’ drawn of the four, so despite being the likely pacemaker, I fear she might just miss out on the places.

Azure Blue’s pace score is a worry here, so that could stop her winning, whilst Pepsi Cat is up two classes here and whilst she’ll undoubtedly give her best again, I think she’ll also come up short and this pair will probably have to scrap it out for minor honours behind Beautiful Diamond who has ticked more boxes than others.

No odds were available at 4pm on Friday, but I'd hope to get an E/W backable price about Pepsi Cat in addition to fair odds about Beautiful Diamond.



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Racing Insights, Thursday 20/06/24

Apologies for the lack of a post for Wednesday's racing, I was up in the Troodos mountains all day/evening with no signal. There'll also be no column for Friday's racing, as I'll be making my way back home from Cyprus on Thursday.

As for Thursday's racing, did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.20 Ripon
  • 3.45 Ascot
  • 4.10 Chelmsford
  • 6.00 Wolverhampton
  • 7.50 Leopardstown

Obviously the Ribblesdale at Ascot is the ‘best’ race on that list, but there are others here on Geegeez better qualified to assess a race of such magnitude (and I’m sure they already have or are about to!), so I’ll switch my focus to Essex, where there’s a reasonable-looking (on paper, at least) handicap in the shape of the 4.10 Chelmsford, an 8-runner (fingers crossed!), Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard polytrack …

We have two LTO winners in this field today, Wadacre Gomez who has won 4 of his last 8 on the A/W and Sniper’s Eye, who is actually up two classes for just his second handicap appearance and wears a hood for the first time upon his comeback from a lengthy (266 days) absence. Stay Well was the only other runner to make the frame on their last run, but he’s also the only runner in this race without a win in six, having been beaten in fourteen straight contests since his last win in October 2021.

In addition to the Sniper’s Eye, bottom-weight and sole female Roxanne is our only other class riser as she steps up one class and also sports a hood for the first time, whilst top-weight Enfjaar is our only class dropper, down one level from Class 2. He has, however, not raced for 229 days and has been gelded during his layoff. Like Sniper’s Eye, Tarjeeh also makes just a second handicap run.

We’re a bit shy on course/distance success here, but both Wadacre Gomez and Zealot are former course and distance winners, whilst Enfjaar won here over a mile thirteen months ago, interestingly after another long (236 days) absence, so the break might not rule him out today. Stay Well has also won over today’s trip, albeit on quick ground at Windsor, way back in April 2021.

Feature of the day Instant Expert shows how the field have performed under similar conditions over 2yrs, 5yrs or all-time and this is the 2-year snapshot…

...where Zealot and Wadacre Gomez have clearly had the most recent success even if Zealot has struggled over the last year, losing five on the bounce since winning seven of eight races in a four month period from December 2022 to March 2023. That raised his mark from 59 to 99, but he's now running off 84, some 12lbs below his last win, which could make him dangerous. As for Wadacre Gomez, he has four wins and a place from five efforts over course and distance and is only up 2lbs from his win here two weeks ago. Enfjaar probably shades the role of third best on those numbers above.

Quite a few of those have swathes of red next to their name, especially Diamond Ranger who looks the most vulnerable of the eight, but maybe he has just been unlucky not to win. The place stats will tell us quickly enough...

...and they suggest that he's not as bad as his win record would suggest, but that he's clearly not at this best at Class 3 and/or over 1m2f. Stay Well's place stats are also poor and I think I'd rule these two out here. Top of our speed ratings, Roxanne, is unexposed under these condition and could be a dark horse.

Course and distance specialist Wadacre Gomez is drawn widet of all here, out in stall 8, but I don't think that will make or break his race, as there's no huge draw bias over 1m2f here at Chelmsford in 8-runner contests, if truth be told...

Stalls 3 to 5 may have a slight edge in terms of wins and those in 4 & 5 have clearly better place returns and whilst this is encouraging news for the likes of Tarjeeh, Sniper's Eye and Diamond Ranger, they are among the weaker runners here and might need all the help we can get.

Pace, however, is generally a different kettle of fish here at Chelmsford and regular readers of this column and/or users of our pace stats won't be surprised to learn that the further forward you race, the greater the chance of a win or place! (not the best poetry you'll ever read, but it's true!)...

So, where is the pace going to come from? Well, we don't know for sure, but by looking at the field's recent runs, we can usually make an informed guess...

There's a possibility that this might be a falsely run affair, which would play into the hands (hooves) of Wadacre Gomez on his favoured track/trip, but then again he also has the highest average pace score. Zealot was looking like an E/W possible, but having to come from the back is never easy here and that might be an issue and I think this opens the door for Enfjaar and Roxanne.

Summary

Pace wins the race they say in Chelmsford and with Wadacre Gomez heading the averages above alongside his excellent course and distance record, I'm not sure a 2lb rise here will stop him from going in again and this is probably why he's the 5/2 favourite with Bet365 (only book open at 3.45pm Wednesday) I was hoping he'd be more like 10/3 for this, but either way he's the one I think should win here.

I did like Zealot as an E/W option, but the pace might count against him. That said, if it's a falsely run race that might well suit him, as he's used to doing all his best work late on. Enfjaar was third best on Instant Expert and was handily placed in the pace profiler, as was the filly Roxanne who was a one-length runner-up over course and distance two months ago and should go well again here.

Enfjaar currently trades at 9/2, which again is a little shorter than I expected and too short for an E/W bet, but from that angle 16/1 might be generous about Zealot and/or Roxanne if things fall their way.



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 18/06/24

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...which is very heavily Ascot-oriented, of course. We do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 3.45 Ascot
  • 4.10 Catterick
  • 6.40 Beverley
  • 8.45 Beverley

The first of our free races also has three runners on The Shortlist, but I'm not really into 17-runner sprints, so I think we'll take the third name on The Shortlist, Get Sky High and assess the 3.55 Stratford, a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed trip of 2m 145yds (after a 75yd rail movement) on good ground...

Ilanz, Get Sky High and King Otis were the 3/1 co-favourites when I started looking at this race and they were the three that I thought would fill the places. King Otis won last time out and is two from three, whilst sole mare Get Sky High comes here seeking a hat-trick. Ilanz was a runner-up last time around and Donnie Azoff finished third on his last run, but that was 229 days ago and he might need the run.

Vision des Flos is the only one without a win in five, having suffered eight defeats on the bounce and he now might also need a run after a 208-day absence and you could say the same about As Tears Go By as he makes a yard debut after 263 days off track. Forever William also debuts for his new yard, whilst featured runner, Get Sky High, runs in a handicap for just the second time and she steps up a class here, as does King Otis, whilst Donnie Azoff is up two classes.

All nine have won over a similar trip to this one, but only Donnie Azoff has scored over course and distance, although Get Sky High has won a bumper here over today's trip...

Recent form suggests that Manor Park struggles to win on good ground or at Class 3, whilst Taleit Easy has struggled at the trip. Donnie Azoff has a line of green off a small sample size with Get Sky High and King Otis catching the eye at going/trip respectively.

The place stats from those races above say that most of them should be at home under these conditions...

...with Donnie Azoff strengthening his case for making the frame whilst Ilanz looks very strong too. Past previous similar races here at Stratford have rewarded those willing to set the pace...

...which based on this field's last few outings...

...could be very good news for Get Sky High who has led in three of  his last four outings.

Summary

At the start of my analysis, I agreed with the bookies that Ilanz, Get Sky High and King Otis would be the three to focus upon and none of their six rivals have done enough above to throw me off that track, but I do think that King Otis might be the slightly weaker of the three.

Ilanz edged it on Instant Expert and Get Sky High had it on pace, but if pushed to choose between the two, I'd narrowly have ti side with Ilanz.

As of 6.15pn, you could still get 3/1 for all three runners and if one was to slip up, then Donnie Azoff might be a viable E/W pick at 11/1.



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Racing Insights, Monday 17/06/24

 

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  •  3.18 Chepstow
  • 4.00 Carlisle
  • 4.45 Kilbeggan
  • 7.45 Kilbeggan

The two UK races above are Class 4/5 affairs, but with the daily feature in mind, there are a couple of Class 3 sprints on the evening card at Windsor. One has sixteen runners, so I'll swerve that in favour of the 7.30 Windsor, a 7-runner, Class 3, 3yo flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...

Sole filly Queen’s Guard is the only LTO winner and has two wins and two places from her last four outings. Aramram won two races ago and fast finisher Salvuccio won five starts back, as did Beyond Borders when completing a hat-trick. Jimmy Speaking won two of his last three, Sky Warrior won four races ago and despite three losses on the bounce, The Good Biscuit is still two from five, so this could be a useful contest.

Salvuccio is the only one of the seven who raced at Class 3 last time and he now wears first time blinkers. Aramram makes a handicap debut and is the only class dropper in the field with the other five runners all stepping up from Class 4. All bar Salvuccio have won over this trip, but we’ve no former course winners amongst a group that have all raced in the last 17 days and according to Instant Expert...

...mainly have a good win record over 6f. The Good Biscuit will like the ground here, having won two from three, whilst from a place perspective...

...it's probably time to write Salvuccio off from my considerations. Unusually over a straight 6f, there does seem to be abit of a draw bias in these smaller fields with stalls 1 to 3 having the best win records and stalls 1 to 5 faring best for the places, which might not bode well for Jimmy Speaking or Aramram...

If we then return to our feature of the day, pace, we see that those 90-odd races above have been dominated by front runners...

...making the success of low drawn leaders in the following pace/draw heat map of little surprise...

We can now check how these runners have approached their most recent races...

...data that opens the door for the two highest drawn runners, Jimmy Speaking and Aramram.

Summary

There's no standout runner here in what looks a tight contest. Queen's Guard is one of the form horses, but she seems unsuited by her pace profile and is up 7lbs for her LTO win, so I think that Jimmy Speaking might be a safer option at 13/2 with Hills (8.15pm Sunday), he's going to be up with the pace and has won two of his last three. Hopefully he'll edge the filly out and land the forecast too.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 15/06/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following set of runners...

14-day form...

30-day form...

and 5-year course form...

...which in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.30 Sandown
  • 2.05 Sandown
  • 4.52 Hexham
  • 5.04 Chester
  • 5.20 York
  • 6.18 Leicester

...gives me a grand total of ten races to consider, the highest-rated of which is the 2.05 Sandown, but 16-runner handicaps really aren't my thing, so next best is the race before that one, the 1.30 Sandown, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo flat handicap over a right-handed 1m1f on good to firm ground...

Sole female in the race, Crystal Flyer was a winner last time out, as was bottom weight Prince Eric who completed a 53-day hat-trick albeit all over a mile on the A/W. Mafnood, Jayyash and Von Baer all finished third on their last outing, but the latter is a five-race maiden, whilst the rest of the field have all won at least once in their last six outings or less.

Von Baer has also been gelded during the seven-week break since his last run, whilst Mafnood wears first-time blinkers and both Break The Bank and Jayyash are visored for the first time here.

Only Mafnood, Jayyash and Von Baer raced at Class 3 last time out as Brioni, Crystal Flyer and Into Battle all drop down from Class 2 with Mr Monaco and Break The Bank stepping up from Class 4, whilst Prince Eric’s recent hat-trick was all at Class 5 on the A/W and he may find Class 3 turf action a tad more difficult.

Today will be handicap debut day for Crystal Flyer, whilst Mr Monaco and Into Battle have both only had one previous handicap outing, but the latter is the only runner in this fried to have won over a similar trip to this one and we’ve no previous course winners, according to Instant Expert, which initially doesn't give us much to work with...

...but a slight relaxing of the parameters proves more helpful...

...with most of the field having at lest one win and Prince Eric / Into Battle excelling at the trip, but a lack of wins doesn't always mean a horse has run poorly as the place stats below show...

...where Brioni looks like enjoying the conditions along with Mafnood. They both have three greens from going/class/course and distance, whilst Crystal Flyer and Into Battle have two greens, but I should stress that the sample sizes are so small that I wouldn't lean too heavily on these numbers.

The draw, however, might well have an important role to play and if we spilt the stalls into thirds, it looks like those drawn highest have a distinct advantage...

...although closer inspection of the stall by stall data would suggest that this advantage starts around halfway along the stalls in box 5...

If we then look at how those races above were won, it's a bit of a mixed bag if truth be told with no real clear benefit from any particular running style from a win perspective, although the further forward a horse has raced, the greater the chance of making the frame...

We can now also look at how the draw interacts with the pace and this is interesting and offers confirmation, because we've already said that higher drawn runners fare well and leaders go well from a place perspective, so this graphic shouldn't be a surprise...

...but it also suggests that five of the nine pace/draw combos all have a similar success rate, suggesting that there's no clearcut perfect profile and if we look at how this field has tended to run of late...

...which suggests that Brioni and Into Battle (possibly Von Baer) are the likely pace makers, whilst Mafnood downwards have the pick of the draw. Crystal Flyer had a change of tactic last time out and this proved successful, so she might be ridden the same way again and if so from stall 6, she may just about edge it on pace/draw.

Summary

This looks a pretty open contest and I think I could make a case for most of these, but the one that interests me most right now (5.15pm Friday) is the 13/2 Crystal Flyer. It's a bit of a gamble that she races up with the pace like last time, but that is reflected in the odds. She won quite cosily last time out, but drops in class here and her runner-up has won since won, so 13/2 might be generous here.

As for an E/W option, only Brioni (10/1), Break The Bank (10/1) and Von Baer (14/1) are at what I'd deem E/W odds and if pushed to put one forward, I'd side with Brioni who drops in class after a disappointing run last time ended a sequence of hime having one win and three further places from his first four career outings.



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Racing Insights, Friday 14/06/24

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced no qualifiers...

Thankfully, our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.50 York
  • 2.40 Sandown
  • 4.35 Chester
  • 5.40 Fairyhouse
  • 6.25 Market Rasen
  • 7.08 Cork

Once again, nothing better than Class 4 from the UK options, so I'm going to look at one of the UK"s joint highest rated contests of the day, the 3.00 York. It's a 13-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over a straight 6f on good ground...

Jumbeau, Katey Kontent and Apeeling are all last time winners, but Alfa Kellenic comes here on a hat-trick. Midream made the frame LTO after two successive wins, whilst Thursday’s Child has also won two from three but Al Simmo and Conservationist are winless in seven and eight races respectively.

Al Simmo is one of just two runners (along with LTO winner Jumbeau) to have raced at this grade on their last outing, as Katey Content, Flaccianello, Conservationist, Thursday’s Child and Lady Pink Rose all step up from Class 3, whilst Star of Lady M is up two classes with both Apeeling and hat-trick seeker Alfa Kellenic up three levels today!

Three runners are dropping down in class, though, as Midream was third of six in a Haydock Listed race (beaten by 3.25 lengths), Born To Rock was seventh of nine in a Lingfield Group 3 race and Queen of Mougins was eighth of fourteen in a Listed race at Newbury.

A handful of these are a bit short on handicap experience with Thursday’s Child and Alfa Kellenic having just their second such run, whilst it’s handicap debut day for the class droppers Midream, Born To Rock and Queen of Mougins as well as LTO winner Apeeling.

As we know, Al Simmo is winless in seven, having not scored for 23 months now and she now returns to action for the first time since last September, putting her at a disadvantage about her dozen rivals who have all had at least one run in the last five weeks, but she has at least won over today’s trip in the past, unlike Jumbeau, Born To Rock, Conservationist and Lady Pink Rose, whilst none of this baker’s dozen have won here at York before.

That said, only Star of Lady M (placed once in 4 runs), Al Simmo (2 places from 3), Jumbeau (placed on sole visit), Lady Pink Rose (unplaced on sole visit) and Thursday’s Child (also unplaced on sole visit) have previously raced on the Knavesmire…

Instant Expert suggests that Star of Lady M and Jumbeau have struggled to win on good ground, as has Al Simmo at Class 2, unlike Flaccianello who is two from three at this level. Al Simmo has, however, racked up some wins over today's trip with Midream also winning half of her efforts over 6f.

To ensure I'm not relying on old data, I'm now going to look at the place stats over last two years...

...where Al Simmo still has good numbers despite her losing run. Jumbeau also scores well as does Midream.

Decent standard sprints over a straight track on good ground really shouldn't have a huge draw bias and that seems to be the case here...

...but that's not to say that some stalls don't fare better than others, of course...

...but I'm not sure there's enough there to call any bias and I wouldn't have thought that the draw here could make or break a horse's chances, whereas their running style might and as you may have expected, it's those willing to take the race on early doors that have the best results...

...and this is backed up by the pace/draw heat map...

If we then turned to look at how this field have approached their recent races, then the likes of Appealing and Al Simmo could well in a great position...

Summary

Al Simmo hasn't won in almost two years and I don't see her winning this either, but she's a regular placer and has the ideal pace profile to go well here, so could very well make the frame (bookies paying 4 places) and would be a possible E/W shot at 10/1*.

Others that I like are all placed shorter* than her, such as Midream and Jumbeau who both currently trade at 13/2*.

*Odds taken from Hills (only book open) at 3pm UK time.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 12/06/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.00 Yarmouth
  • 6.30 Limerick
  • 8.00 Limerick
  • 8.45 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following UK runners...

30-day form...

1-year course form...
and 5-year course form...

Our two 'free' UK races are just lowly Class 5/6 affairs, but there are a handful of Class 4 contests dotted around the country and the one that interests me most is the 4.00 Yarmouth, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on soft ground..

This looks a pretty open contest if truth be told with only Bold Ribb coming here off the back of a win. That is tempered by the fact that this win was way back in October, on the A/W, off a mark 6lbs lower than today and at a class below this one. Otherwise, all great!

Elsewhere Baltimore Boy and Magic Memories made the frame on their last runs, whilst Lough Leane’s fifth of seven at Newmarket ended a run of five straight wins. That defeat was at a higher grade than today and he now drops a class, as does Magic Memories, whilst top-weight Diderot is down two classes. Baltimore Boy is on a losing streak of eight races now and he’s the only runner here not to win any of their last six races.

We know Bold Ribb hasn’t been seen for over seven months, whilst Diderot has had almost eleven weeks to rest and Lady of Arabia’s last run was six weeks ago. Aside from the trio, the other half-dozen runners all raced in the past 20-24 days with Baltimore Boy, Nap Hand and Lakota Brave finishing 3rd, 5th and 9th at this class/trip in the same Kempton race three weeks ago.

None of this field have won here at Yarmouth before, mind you only Bold Ribb (6th of 10 last September) and Lough Leane (3rd of 10, a year ago) have raced on this track, but all bar Nap Hand and Bold Rigg have won over today's trip...

We've not got much in the way of soft ground from/experience aside from Magic Memories 1 win from 6, in fact most of these have done their running on good ground or quicker, so this might be a shock today. Lady of Arabia and Lough Leane are the ones with the best records at this trip, whilst the place stats...

...do give some of the others some hope. In cases like these , I tend to want runners to have at least two of going/class/course/distance in green, so from the above the ones 'better' suited to the conditions might be Lakota Brave, Magic Memories, Bold Ribb, Lady of Arabia and Lough Leane, giving me runners in stalls 1, 3, 4, 6 and 8, so I'm hoping that if there's a draw bias that it favours those drawn lowest!

That said, it's a straigh mile on soft ground, so I'm not expecting the draw to make a huge amount of difference and whilst there is a bit of a drop off in the win percentage for those drawn higher...

...there's not a great deal in it and the place stats look pretty even across the board, suggesting that in a small number of races, those drawn high might have been unlucky. Generally here at Yarmouth, it's all about pace and doing your work early, but the ground is usually good to form or quicker, so we'll need to check the above soft ground races to see what tactics might work best...

...and it's a bit of a mixed bag to be honest, but if pushed I'd want a hold-up horse based on those stats alone and if we consider the field's last few runs, this could be good news for the likes of Magic Memories and Nap Hand...

That, of course is based on taking pace in isolation, but we really should look at ho pace and draw are intertwined and we do this via our unique heat map...

...which suggests that in the absence of any real front-runner, Leuven Power, Nap Hand and Magic Memories might be best positioned.

Summary

From the above analysis, many names have cropped up and there's only three I've doubts about and that's Bold Ribb (lay-off and class/weight rise), Diderot and Lady of Arabia who became non-runners during the write-up process!

Of the remaining six runners, all have a really good shout of making the frame, but the one I like best from a win perspective would be Magic Memories. He has gone well on soft ground and gets the trip, plus he fared well on the pace/draw heat map.

Magic Memories was the 11/4 jt fav with Hills at 2.30pm UK time alongside Leuven Power and from those still in my eye, only Lakota Brave's 17/2 price was what I'd deem backable from an E/W perspective, that would be my place angle here, although it looks that tight that any of them could make the frame.

 



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 11/06/24

 

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

 

...with the first two of immediate interest along with our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 3.02 Salisbury
  • 5.15 Sligo
  • 6.00 Wetherby
  • 7.45 Sligo

The highest-rated of the UK races above is a Class 4 maiden and whilst I've no issue with Class 4 contests, I'm not a fan of maiden races and it's a good job I've no issue with Class 4 racing, as that's as good as it gets on Tuesday in the UK. I've selected the most valuable Fkat race in that grade for my column, as we now turn our attention to the 5.07 Salisbury, a 12-runner, Class 4 (obviously!), 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

...where this relatively inexperienced (just 62 total starts)field boasts three LTO winners in the shape of Elladonna (who is two from four), Quietness and bottom-weight Pratigya, whilst Glimmer of Light, Miss Bielsa and Xiomara all made the frame. Ciara Pearl has won three of her last four and Big Time Bridget, Meleri & Alhattan have all won at lest one of their own last four, giving us a fairly competitive race for the grade.

Elladonna, Quietness, Switchel, Glimmer of Light, Miss Bielsa, Xiomara, Frankelian and Pratigya all step up a level from Class 5, but Bigtime Bridget last raced in a Listed contest. She now wears a tongue-tie for the first time, whilst Switchel is now to be tried in a hood on her return from almost seven months off track and she's not the only one running after a break as Glimmer of Light and Frankelian have been off for 175 and 251 days respectively.

Xiomara has only raced in handicap company once before, whilst it's debut day for Bigtime Bridget, Glimmer of Light, Miss Bielsa, Frankelian and Pratigya. Elladonna was fifth of twelve over course and distance here on debut just over a year ago and she's the only one in this field to have raced at Salisbury before, but she has won over this trip in the past, as have Ciara Pearl, Meleri and Miss Bielsa.

Unfortunately with an inexperienced field, Instant Expert doesn't show a stack of data..

...from a win perspective, especially as the field have just 13 wins between albeit at a reasonable strike rate of near enough 21% overall. Obviously the place stats can't conjure up more races to cover, but they do give us a little bit of meat to add to the bones from above...

...with Quietness and Ciara Pearl probably the to best suited off limited data. Meleri's best work has been on slower ground at Class 5, but she certainly gets the trip; Pratigya makes a turf debut here after three A/W outings and these two are drawn widest of all today and the draw stats would initially suggest that this is an advantage...

...but closer inspection says there's very little in it really with those drawn centrally faring slightly worse on both win and place for some unknown reason. A slightly clearer picture emerges when we look how those races were won, as hold-up horses have really struggled to win...

...whilst racing prominently and/or leading has been the best way of making the frame, which based on the field's most recent efforts, probably isn't great news for Xiomara and Miss Bielsa...

...and whilst Elladonna and Alhattan head that graphic, there's actually no obvious out and out pace maker in the field, so it will probably land at their feet to take it on or maybe Glimmer of Light/Frankelian?

Summary

Sadly, we haven't gleaned much from the toolkit today (we are human after all!), but based on the above, form and my own personal feelings/thoughts, the three that I'd take against the field here would be Elladonna, Alhattan and Ciara Pearl in that order, but based on the prices from Hills at 3.20pm...

...I'd suggest that Ciara Pearl might be a good E/W option.



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Racing Insights, Monday 10/06/24

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  •  4.40 Lingfield
  • 5.40 Windsor
  • 5.48 Roscommon
  • 6.18 Roscommon

Neither of the UK 'free' races really appeal to me, so I'm going just look at the day's highest-rated race, the 7.40 Windsor, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good to firm ground...

Rocking Ends is our sole LTO winner, although Isle of Lismore won his penultimate race and was a runner-up last time, meaning that just two of the field were in the frame on their most recent outing. That said, all bar Mountain Peak have won at least once in the last seven, but he is winless in eleven stretching back almost two years.

His bid to snap his cold streak won't be helped by him stepping up a class, as do Isle of Lismore and Dusky Lord, whilst LTO winner Rocking Ends is up two levels. Mountain Peak last raced seven weeks ago, but all his rivals have ran at least once in the last four weeks and every one of the ten runners here have won over today's trip with Isle of Lismore, Rocking Ends and Antiphon all scoring over course and distance...

In fairnes, there's not a great deal of positivity from the win stats on Instant Expert today, but Good Earth does like the good to firm ground. From a negative perspective, it's not looking good for Thunder Moor, Woolhampton and Dusky Lord with a full line of red, whilst Squealer is 9lbs higher than his last win, so I think we'll need to check the place stats...

...which does paint a better picture, but it has to be the end of the road for Squealer (weight), Thunder Moor and Dusky Lord. Woolhampton's place stats are decent, so she earns a reprieve for now, whilst Antiphon clearly loves it here at Windsor finishing 114232212 since his first visit here on 2nd May 2022.

As you'd expect, there's no huge draw bias over a straight 5f on quick ground...

.but when it comes to our feature of the day, Pace, it's a different story with horses faring much better from both a win and a place perspective, the further forward they race...

...which makes sense really doesn't it? Hold-up horses don't have time to catch up over a fast five. Based on the field's most recent efforts, this pace bias would seem to suit Windsor-lover Antiphon better than Woolhampton...

If we then look at the pace/draw heat map...

...the ideal combo is the low drawn leader and Isle of Lismore scoring 3.00 for pace above and has the no.1 stall, then that could be good news.

Summary

Isle of Lismore is in good form and has the ideal pace/draw combo to succeed here. He won a similar race over course and distance this time last year and at a generally available (as of 5.40pm Sunday) 5/1, he'd be the one for me.

Rocking Ends is only up 2lbs for a good win LTO, but the dual step up in class might be his undoing here, whilst course specialist Antiphon looks a little high in the weights. Both have great chances of making the frame but at respective odds of 4/1 and 10/3, there's nothing in them from an E/W perspective.

If I did want a longer-priced horse to outrun their odds, then the 17/2 Navello might be the one, but I wouldn't be throwing too much of your hard-earned at it!



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Racing Insights, Saturday 08/06/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated all the following runners for me to consider...

for 14-day form...

30-day form...

1-year form...

and 1-year course form...

...to consider in addition to our daily list of 'free' races, which are...

  • 1.40 Bangor
  • 2.10 Catterick
  • 2.20 Navan
  • 2.50 Bangor
  • 3.35 Haydock
  • 4.45 Haydock

The last of those free races features two runners from the TJC report, but 15-runner sprints really aren't my thing, so I'm happy that another runner from the TJC report runs in another of our free races, as Team Skelton's Lunar Sovereign is down to tackle the 2.50 Bangor, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed trip of 2m 145yds on good ground...

My initial thoughts are that the ones to focus one here were (alphabetically) Collingham, Feel The Pinch, featured runner Lunar Sovereign and top-weight Sir Tivo, but let’s dig a little deeper…

Sole LTO winner Collingham comes here seeking a hat-trick inside four weeks, whilst Feel The Pinch is the only one of his rivals to make the frame last time out. Elsewhere Lunar Sovereign and Barrichello in eight and ten races respectively, whilst Superbolt is a seven-race maiden. The other runners have all won at least one of their last seven outings.

Most of these ran at this grade last time out and all raced in the last 11-44 days, but Lunar Sovereign drops down a class and Sir Tivo is down two. Superbolt makes just a second handicap appearance and it’ll be his first run for his new handler and also his UK debut, whilst Barrichello wears blinkers for the first time.

All these bar Leylak and the obvious Superbolt have already won over a similar trip with Collingham, Feel The Pinch and Simply Red all former course and distance winners. Sir Tivo (2m1.5f chase) and Barrichello (2m3.5f hurdle) have also both won on this track earlier in their careers.

Instant Expert suggests that the top three on the card (and three of my initially favoured quartet) would be the ones to look at based on relevant past performances…

...but Simply Red is three from three over course and distance in the last two years (and 4 from 4 overall) so shouldn't be easily discounted, even if he has struggled since his last visit/win here last August.

Previous past similar races here at Bangor have gone with the pace of the contest with front-runners faring the best and hold-up horses faring the worst from both a win and a place perspective and based on this field's last few runs...

...this appears to hand the initiative to Sir Tivo.

Summary

I started off by suggesting that I was drawn to Collingham, Feel The Pinch, featured runner Lunar Sovereign and top-weight Sir Tivo and it's the latter, Sir Tivo, who is the likely front-runner over a course and distance that favour such tactics.

He drops two classes here and has two wins and two places from his last five outings and also scored well on Instant Expert, albeit off a small number of runs and all of this makes Sir Tivo look too big at his current (10.20pm Friday) 16/1 price tag. I'm not sure he's got the win in the bag, but should be a decent E/W option today.

Lunar Sovereign looks the weakest of my quartet, but still stronger than Simply Red, so I think it'll be hat-trick seeking Collingham and Feel The Pinch who cause Sir Tivo the most problems with 5/2 fav Collingham the most likely winner.



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Racing Insights, Thursday 06/06/24

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 5.10 Haydock
  • 6.30 Leopardstown
  • 6.45 Chelmsford
  • 8.00 Leopardstown

Now, as most of you know, I don't really do Irish racing and that leaves me with a pair of uninspiring Class 5 UK races above, so I'm swerving those to look at whatever the highest-rated race might be in the UK instead.

And that appears to be the 3.25 Hamilton, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good ground...

...where only Glenfinnan was a winner last time out, although Kelpie Grey was a runner-up after three straight wins and four wins from five.

This initially looks a pretty open contest, yet aside from the horses named above only Persuasion made the frame last time out, but only Monsieur Kodi and Manila Scouse are winless in seven or more (7 & 10 respectively).

Only five of these (Roman Drago, Paws for Thought, Dare to Hope, Monsieur Kodi & Manila Scouse) actually raced at Class 2 on their last outing, as Glenfinnan, Raatea, Persuasion and Almarada Prince all step up from Class 3 whilst Kelpie Grey and Illusionist were both last seen at Class 4.

Paws for Thought, Illusionist and Manila will have their usual respective cheekpieces, blinkers and tongue tie in place today and Paws For Thought's jockey claims 7lbs whilst Almarada Prince will be ridden by a 5lb claimer in addition to him receiving an 8lbs weight allowance as a 3yr old. The whole field have raced in the last 12 to 39 days, so we shouldn't have any fitness issues here today.

Persuasion , Kelpie Grey and Manila Scouse have yet to win over this trip, whilst Paws for Thought and Illusionist have scored here over course and distance. Almarada Prince has also won here at Hamilton, albeit over 5f as the middle win in a hat-trick last Autumn.

When it comes to looking at out feature of the day, Instant Expert, I've also included the stats from Class 3, as none of this field has particularly shone in this grade...

...so I wouldn't necessarily use Class 2 form as my immediate way of weeding runners out! From the above, the lightweight Almarada Prince and Glenfinnan are the obvious eyecatchers with Paws for Thought and Roman Dragon also hitting two blocks of green, although the latter is now 8lbs above his last winning mark and might well be in the assessor's grip.

I think we should look at the place form too, in case any of these have been unlucky not to win, especially at Class 2...

Sadly, that's not the case today, the while Class 2 form is pretty abject, so I think we should treat this as a Class 3 contest after all! Persuasion is a regular placer at that level and Almarada Prince continues to tick boxes albeit off a very small sample size, whereas Dare to Hope and Monsieur Kodi have a combined 14 places from 26 starts over 6f, which is excellent. Illusionist looks the weak link right now, though.

As you'd expect over a straight 6f on good ground, the draw stats are fairly inconclusive, but this the data we have...

I'm a great believer in the value of assessing the draw in shorter distance races, but I am cautious about over-reliance in these straight sprints, where aside from stall 1 having the rail to guide the horse and keep it straight, there shouldn't really be an advantage and it's invariably race tactics aka pace that matter more. Thankfully we have that data too! Here's how those races were won...

...unsurprisingly favouring front-runners as often tends to be case in sprints, which could be really good news for Kelpie Grey, if this field's last four races are anything to go by...

Summary

The names that crop up most during my analysis are (in card order) top weights Roman Dragon and Glenfinnan along with the two runners to be ridden by claimers, Paws for Thought and Almarada Prince.

If I was to use this quartet as my shortlist, then I'd be inclined to suggest that the in-form Glenfinnan would be the most likely to win and that's probably why Hills have him as the early (4.10pm Wednesday) favourite at 4/1, which is probably where I thought he'd be priced.

The other three (Roman Dragon, Paws for Thought and Almarada Prince) are all more than capable of making the frame, as are no doubt three or four others, but at respective odds of 13/2, 8/1 and 16/1, there might be some E/W joy to be had!

Please Note : I'm off to Cyprus for a fortnight tomorrow (Thursday), so there'll be no column for Friday's racing. It's a work trip (looking at some hotels), so I'll still be writing the daily column when possible, although the timings of publication may well vary from day to day.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 05/06/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.40 Newton Abbot
  • 4.10 Newton Abbot
  • 6.10 Kempton
  • 7.00 Curragh

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

And with Francesco Baracca, Muttasil and Marmaduke Lemon from the TS report all taking each other on, I think I'll have a look at their race, the 4.27 Nottingham, a 13-runner, Class 5, 3yo flat handicap over a left-handed trip just 15yds shy of 1m½f after a 20yd rail movement. The going is set to be good and here's the card...

An inexperienced field with an average of under 5 races each (61 total races between the 13 of them), but Double Jump, Phoenix Passion, Francesco Baracca, Ribble Radiant and Roman Secret have all won at least one race with Phoenix Passion having won three of his eight starts and he comes here on a hat-trick, whilst Roman Secret also won last time out; Muttasil and Seamore are the only two yet to make the frame after 4 and 3 efforts respectively.There's plenty of changes according to the card, as we see Double Jump, Marmaduke Lemon and Francesco Baracca dropping down a class, whilst Ribble Radiant is down two steps. It's also handicap debut day for Marmaduke Lemon, Drink Dry, Seamore and Baynoona, who also runs for Harry Charlton for the first time today. Francesco Baracca and Muttasil run in handicap company for just the second time. We've also a couple of runners trying new headgear out with Drink Dry and Ribble Radiant wearing cheekpieces and a tongue tie respectively.

Only three of these, Seamore, Roman Secret, Great Chieftain have raced here before with all three failing to win their sole visit, but Roman Secret and Great Cheiftain did at least make the frame. We also don't have much in the way of wins at this trip, but Roman Secret, Phoenix Passion and Francesco Baracca have all managed to do it...

We don't get much help from the win side of things, but that's hardly surprising from a field that has won just 7 of 61 races so far, especially when Instant Expert eyecatcher Phoenix Passion is 3 from 8! Roman Secrtet looks next best, but it's a low bar and I think we're going to need to check the place stats...

These are more helpful, even if only to consolidate Phoenix Passion's position. Drink Dry, Francesca Barraca and Roman Secret (2nd best so far) also have multiple places in one or more category and after eliminating any of them without any green in either going, class, course or distance from the place graphic, I'm only taking these forward to draw analysis...

...and they're pretty much spread across the track, so I need to see if there's anything to be had from the draw in this type of contest...

I wouldn't say that there was a huge draw bias at play here, but stalls 4-6 have good win records, as does stall 11, so could be more good news for Phoenix Passion, as well as Drink Dry, Great Chieftain and Marmaduke Lemon, whilst there seems to be even less of a bias in the place stats.

It's a totally different story when it comes to pace, though, as horses running in mid-division or further back have struggled to win under these conditions...

...whilst leaders have gone well, but have seemed vulnerable to the prominent stalking types. That said, I'd rather be on an out and out front-runner than a back marker here and based on the field's last three outings (because some only have three to choose from!)...

Roman Secret looks like the pace-setter here with the likes of Show Biz Kid, Phoenix Passion and Ribble Radiant the ones in closes attendance. I'd also expect Seamore and Muttasil to be fairly close to the pace too in what could be a trappy affair.

Summary

The one horse whose name keeps popping up is Phoenix Passion and he has to be my pick here. I'm not surprised to see him installed as the early (3.40pm Tuesday) favourite with Bet365, but I was rather hoping for a little more than 10/3, but beggars can't be choosers.

Elsewhere, Roman Secret also won last time out and was my 2nd best from Instant Expert, he's likely to set the pace here and if she's race-fit after a 201-day layoff, she could be one for the E/W bettors amongst us at a current price of 8/1.



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 04/06/23

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...with Con Te Partiro of obvious immediate interest. As usual we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 4.03 Leicester
  • 5.20 Southwell
  • 6.45 Lingfield
  • 7.30 Wolverhampton

Class 4 racing is as good as it gets and with one of our shortlist horses running in one of our free races, I'm going to take a quick look at the 5.20 Southwell, where Lipa K will take on just five rivals in a Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m5f (after a 138yd rail movement) on good ground...

ELHAM VALLEY has made the frame in both starts (both here at Southwell) since moving yards and was only beaten by a head last time out just three weeks ago, but hasn't won a race beyond 2m2½f, so this might stretch him.

BELVEDERE BLAST has won over 2m4½f in the past, but looked decidedly rusty when a further three places and over 20 lengths behind Elham Valley's runner-up run here three weeks ago. In his defence, he hadn't raced for seven months and dis win three on the bounce in the first 17 days of June last year after a five-month break

COPPER BEACH hasn't been seen since a 17 length defeat last November at Wetherby and has won just once in fourteen career starts, but that was at 2m4f, which is a positive. Had has a wind op during the lay-off, but other make more appeal.

THE BIG LENSE has struggled for consistency over the last year, either running well or failing to finish (1P3F2) Was only beaten by a head over today's course and distance four weeks ago, though, when headed late on by the re-opposing Pozo Emery and this pair should be closely matched again.

LIPA K comes here on a hat-trick after winning both his efforts over fences, but whilst he runs off the same mark (110) as his last chase win a week ago, that's 4lbs higher than his last hurdles mark and despite winning back to back races over hurdles in March/May 2023, his hurdles form since then reads 535F.

POZO EMERY finished 1122 in four starts for Paul Nicholls during the 20/21 season, but his form for Laura Morgan prior to a course and distance win (beating The Big Lense) read PP3243, so he's not a shoo-in to confirm the placings from that win and is up 3lbs here.

Instant Expert says...

...that most of these have struggled to win Class 4 hurdle races with Pozo Emery the pick of the pack on the above data. The Big Lense looks particularly weak on win form and the data for Lipa K serves to remind us that Instant Expert and The Shortlist are two different reports even if they look similar! Lipa K's figures look better when you look at all NH races, as he's just gone 2 from 2 over fences.

If we then look at the place stats for those races above...

...Pozo Emery still stands out as the one most likely to relish the conditions, whilst most of the runners look half-backable now. Lipa K, however, has a dismal Class 4 hurdling record at 831535F and is 7lbs higher than his last win over these obstacles. He's also highly likely to send much of the race towards the back of the field with The Big Lense whilst the pace will probably come from Pozo Emery and/or Elham Valley if this field's last few races are anything to go by...

...and our pace analyser suggests that horses who lead here tend to get swallowed up by the chasing pack with all other running styles faring better...

Summary

Having won his last two, I imagined Lipa K would be popular and indeed he is; bet365 have him as the 5/4 fav at 4.30pm on Monday, but that doesn't excite me if I'm honest. He's 7lbs higher than his last hurdles win, his two wins were over fences and his recent hurdling form has been patchy plus he has a poor record at Class 4. He's certainly got momentum, but 5/4 represents no value to me.

With that in mind, I'm more interested in the closely-matched The Big Lense and Pozo Emery and with the latter up 3lbs and seemingly less suited by the pace profiling, The Big Lense would be my marginal preference of the two and their closeness is mirrored by bet365 offering 5/1 about each of them.



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Racing Insights, Monday 03/06/24

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.20 Listowel
  • 2.30 Brighton
  • 3.05 Gowran Park
  • 4.50 Listowel
  • 8.45 Windsor

...from which, I think I'll head to the South Coast for the 2.30 Brighton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ Apprentice Classified Stakes over a left-handed 7f on good/good to firm ground...

Top-weight (carrying 5lbs more than the others) is the fast-finisher Fai Fai and he's our only LTO winner in a field that elsewhere Broxi's win five starts ago is the only success any of these have had in their last seven outings, although My Bonnie Lassie made the frame on her last start (over course and distance, too) and has done so twice in her last four efforts.

All nine raced at this level last time around which was inside the last eight weeks for all bar Gilt Edge, who now returns from a six-month break. Muy Muy Guapo has been far from 'very very handsome' of late, having been unplaced in each of his last seven and it is hoped that first-time cheekpieces help today.

This isn't a handicap, so all bar the 5lb-penalised Fai Fai will carry 9st 9lbs here and with four of them rated at 50 and one at 49, this could be a tight contest, despite the obvious lack of quality. Of the five separated by just 1lb in the ratings, Voltaic has a 3lb claimer on board, whilst the jockeys of Kondratiev Wave and Broxi are both able to take 5lbs off, which may well have a bearing here.

All nine have raced over this trip (2 to 35 times overall) with only Broxi (7 from 35) and He's Our Star (3 from 15) managing to win with the other seven failing to score in any of 66 attempts and it's the same two horses who have won here at Brighton before as Broxi is 2 from 2 here and He's Our Star has won 3 of 16 with the others notching up 21 defeats, whilst over course and distance, Broxi is 2 from 2 and He's Our Man 2 from 3. Other relevant stats come courtesy of Instant Expert, of course...

...where Broxi is the immediate eye-catcher based on wins over the last two years, with both Fai Fai and Voltaic having commendable place records, but you probably didn't need me to spell that out. When it comes to place stats, I'm never too keen about horses 'in the red' after 5 runs or more, so by that standard My Bonnie Lassie and He's Our Star fail on class/course data, whilst Gilt Edge also fails on class and I'd be more than happy to rule them out right now, leaving me with the following in draw order...

I've got them in draw order, because I want to check with our draw analyser to see if any of these be helped or hindered by their stall position based on data gleaned from past similar races here at Brighton...

...where to be honest, I'd say that the bias wasn't that great at all, but if there is an advantage to be had it's probably more relevant for the placings rather than the wins and that those drawn lowest have the better chances. It's a different story from a pace perspective, though, where the onus is to get out quickly with our pace analyser showing that leaders/prominent runners won 51.2% (64) of those 125 races above, despite only accounting for 41.6% (452) of the 1085 runners involved...

...with a similar (but not quite as stark) difference with the places, where they took 46.9% (175) of the 373 places. When we then look back at how this field has approached their most recent races...

...I guess that Broxi might well be afforded a soft early lead and that he'll attempt to make all here.

Summary

Based on the above, it has to be Broxi for me.

Aside from Fai Fai, he brings the best form to the table and is second best off at the weights after allowances, just 1lb inferior to Kondratiev Wave. He has the best win stats on Instant Expert, backed up by good place data. He has been drawn in stall one, so he has the rail to guide him and only one direction to look out for danger, but based on the pace stats, he might not see another runner after the start and if so, it'll probably be late on.

LTO-winner Fai Fai is only two stalls away and might well get a tow into the race, which would help but he and Voltaic are the two best suited to making the frame here today anyway and it is these two that I expect to pose the biggest threat to Broxi here. If pushed to split the placers, I think I like Voltaic slightly more as he carries 8lbs less than Fai Fai, but Fai Fai is the stronger finisher : it might be tight!

As of 4.20pm on Sunday, only Bet365 had shown any odds and they went...

I can understand why Kondratiev Wave might be popular, but 3/1 seems mighty short for a horse on a twenty-one race losing streak and 7/2 about Broxi looks better value.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 01/06/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...in addition to our daily list of fully functional 'free' racecards, which for this Saturday cover...

  • 2.00 Epsom
  • 2.20 Worcester
  • 2.25 Listowel
  • 4.45 Musselburgh
  • 6.15 Doncaster
  • 6.28 Stratford

...from which the highlight has to be the nine-runner, Group 3, Princess Elizabeth Stakes for 3yo+ Fillies & Mares, shown on your racecards as the 2.00 Epsom, where they'll go left-handed on good to soft ground over a trip just three yards beyond 1m½f...

Royal Dress and Sea of Thieves both managed to win last time out at Listed class with the former beating the re-opposing Breege (finished third) by just two short heads in a tight contest at Goodwood four weeks ago, whilst Running Lion was a 3.5-length runner-up in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes a day later at Newmarket. Two of this field are on losing runs with Breege winless in ten since scoring on debut just over two years ago, whilst Julia Augusta has lost seven on the bounce since opening her career with a pair of Class 5 wins over a mile and she's also almost two years without a win.

Julia Augusta was fourth in a Listed race for Roger Varian eight weeks ago and now makes a yard debut for David O'Meara, Sea Of Thieves wears a tongue tie for the first time on her return to UK action. She won a Listed race in France LTO, but is up two classes from her last UK run. Sparks Fly is also up in class after a 3.5 length defeat in a Class 2 handicap at Haydock five weeks ago and the quickest-turned back out (20 days), Chic Columbine is denoted as a fast-finisher. She (along with Glimpsed) gets a 12lb age allowance here as a 3yr old and that effectively makes her best off at the weights, as she's rated just 3lbs lower than Running Lion and Sparks Fly (103 vs 106). The afore mentioned Julia Augusta, however, carries 12lbs more than Chic Columbine despite being rated some 11lbs lower!

Astral Beau was third of six in this race last year and that's the only time any of this field have raced here at Epsom before, but Astral Beau, Julia Augusta, Royal Dress and Sparks Fly have all scored over 1m to 1m1f on the Flat, according to Instant Expert, where Sparks Fly has the best relevant record and Astral Beau the worst...

Admittedly, there's not a great deal of data to work with, but Sparks Fly's 2 from 3 on the going and 6 from 6 at the trip are certainly worth noting, as are Astral Beau's 1 from 7 at Class 1 and her 1 from 9 at the trip sadly. Breege, as we know, hasn't won any of her last ten and most have been Class 1 affairs over similar trips but I wouldn't write her off just yet, as she certainly knows how to make the frame at this level...

...where her Class 1 form line reads 32725423, putting her right into contention for at least a place again today along with Running Lion whose own Class 1 form reads 12382. Chic Columbine has won four of her last five, but they've all been at 6½f/7f, so this is a fairly big step in trip today for her.

Past similar (slightly expanded criteria, of course to get workable data) races show no real draw bias here...

...and there's probably no real pace bias either from those races, even if prominent runners have a much poorer win percentage...

I'm happy to overlook that relatively low 7 from 77 return, because those runners have made the frame as often as the other styles and could have just been a bit unlucky; they're probably only 2 or 3 winners shy of par.

So without a pace and/or draw bias, I'm going to class this as a fair race, where the best horses should prevail all being well and based on form / Instant Expert, I'd lean towards (in card order) Breege, Running Lion, Sparks Fly and Chic Columbine as being the four to choose from.

When we talk about the draw and the pace of a race, it's often useful to look at how they interact, because in those races above there is no obvious bias in either pace or draw, but when combined...

...we'd ideally have a high drawn runner in mid-division dropping in for a late run or a runner in stalls 1-6 leading the way, which makes the following quite interesting...

Astral Beau was third in this race last year, Sparks Fly was the standout on Instant Expert and Breege is the perennial placer.

Summary

The analysis above led me to believe that the winner and placers would come from Breege, Running Lion, Sparks Fly and Chic Columbine, whilst the pace/draw heat map threw Astral Beau's name into the ring, making the market as of 4.30pm Friday of little/no surprise to anyone...

...other than perhaps a feeling that Running Lion might be a little on the short side after being overturned as a 6/4 fav last time out. On her day, she's probably the pick here, but I'm not sensing a great deal of value at 15/8 so whilst she might very well go on to win, she won't be burdened with the weight of my money!

Sparks Fly is really interesting, of course but not backable for me at 5/1, but if you do want an E/W punt then any (or all) of the next three in the betting could be the way forward. God, I hate agreeing with the bookies!

Have a great weekend, guys (and girls, of course!)...
Chris



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