Racing Insights, Wednesday 15/02/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.50 Dundalk
  • 3.00 Hereford
  • 4.35 Dundalk
  • 7.00 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

And I think I'll see how course 5-year specialist Paul Nicholls gets on with his 5yo Pleasant Man in our 'free' jumps race, the 3.00 Hereford, an 11-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right handed 2m4f on good ground...

My initial thoughts are that this would be a three-horse race between our featured runner Pleasant Man, Bashers Reflection and Cabrakan and in a race with no LTO winners, their runner-up finishes are the best result on offer, whilst Bucks Dream was third LTO. Bashers Reflection and Cabrakan both won two starts ago and of the rest, only Toronto has win in their card-visible form line.

Pleasant Man is up one class here, as are the bottom two on the card, Bucks Dream and Beannaigh Do with the latter making just a second handicap appearance, whilst Highland Frolic and Cabrakan are on handicap debuts. Top weight Forecast is the only previous course winner, having landed a 2m3½f contest here, whilst Bashers Reflection won over 2m3f at Warwick. Elsewhere not much to write home about with regards to course/distance form. All eleven have raced in the past seven weeks or so, with Pleasant Man seen most recently when going down by half a length at Taunton last Tuesday.

Instant Expert backs up this lack of relevant course/distance form and actually paints a pretty dismal picture of how this field has performed under these conditions...

Not good at all, bar Toronto's going/class form, but thankfully the place stats do at least give me something to work with...

At this point, I need to be pretty ruthless and get rid of some of these runners, so I'm going rule out Forecast (class), Astrophysicist (going/class) and Beannaigh Do (generally!), giving me eight to choose from and their recent pace profiles are as follows...

...suggesting Cabrakan as the likely pace-maker with Malaita and probably Highland Frolic tucked in behind. Bashers Reflection does have a 4, but he also has a 1 and he does generally run in mid-division or further back. Vengeance and Toronto look like being our held-up back markers in a race where unusually for an NH contest, there's no great pace bias...

Yes, mid-div runners have fared worse than the others, but had one more of the 41 runners won, they'd also have a win % of  9.76% so I'm not entirely convinced that any running style is that much better than the others here.

Summary

Not all races can be worked out to a degree of clarity using the toolbox and when that happens, like here, you've two choices. One is to just walk away and look at the next race, the other is to go off recent form and your 'gut feeling'.

Walking away is probably the best option/advice here, but if I was to see the process out to a conclusion and abet, I'd have little choice but to go back to my original trio of  featured runner Pleasant Man, Bashers Reflection and Cabrakan, whilst having a second look at Toronto, due to his Instant Expert numbers.

Pleasant Man has finished 322 in three starts this year and is up 2lbs after recent runner-up defeats by a shirt head and half a length, but he is up in class here. Bashers Reflection won by half a length on New Year's Eve and was hit by a 9lb rise. He has since been a 5.5 length runner-up and is up another 2lbs, whilst Cabrakan has finished 212 in his three starts over hurdles with a LCass 2win and a pair of Class 4 runner-up finishes, but he was beaten by 15 lengths last time, racing 3f further than he's gone before and certainly hasn't been treated leniently by the handicapper off an opening mark of 106, just 1lb lower than Pleasant Man and a pound heavier than Basher's Reflection.

Based on that, I'd have to agree with the bookies by saying that I think the 11/4 Pleasant Man should win here ahead of Cabrakan (generally 3/1) and Basher's Reflection who is as big as 6/1 with PP. If he drifts any, he could be a live E/W play.

As for Toronto, he's available at 25's with bet365 (3 places0 and 22's with Skybet for four places but on recent form, that would be a bit of a stretch. He won over 1m7f and over 2m½f on his first and third efforts over hurdles, but since that second win in May he has struggled going down by 19L, 30L, 34L and 28L off decreasing marks of 123, 117, 113 and 109 LTO. He's down another 4lbs here and if regaining last summer's form, could get involved, but he's also another yet to travel beyond 2m1f.

If you want an E/W punt on Toronto, please don't throw too much money at him!

Racing Insights, Tuesday 14/02/22

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It's Valentine's Day on Tuesday and I'm just back off a long/heavy weekend, so I'm not exactly feeling the love. Hopefully the racing will provide a spark for me and The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Hoganville & Statu of Liberty are of obvious interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.00 Lingfield
  • 3.55 Ayr
  • 7.30 Newcastle

Both of the interesting Shortlist horses run in 'free' races, so let's quickly see if either are worth backing, starting with Hoganville in the 3.55 Ayr, an 11-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed 3m on good to soft ground...

HOGANVILLE arrived from Ireland last summer with a 0 from 9 record for Paul Nolan in Ireland, but he has since finished 1113 in his four starts for George Bewley with his second win coming over course and distance in late October. This run of form took his mark from 96 to 112 and he was beaten by 13 lengths in to third last time out under today's weight; a mark that might ask a little too much of him. He'd had a month's rest, though, so who knows?

Instant Expert suggests that he's one of the few who should relish the conditions...

...and those four at the top may well be where the winner comes from in a race that in the past has rewarded those getting on with it more than those who want to be waited with...

This field's recent races have looked like this...

...and of the four from Instant Expert, I'd have to omit hold-up horse Nicandeasy, leaving me with Apple Away, Hoganville & Leostar to consider in my summary later.

*

Race 2 sees top-weight Statu of Liberty make just a second handicap run in the 7.30 Newcastle, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard to slow polytrack...

STATU OF LIBERTY was a winner here in a 6f maiden three starts ago for Brian Meehan, but finally made her handicap debut at Southwell last time out almost four weeks ago. That was her seventh career run and first for new handler Michael Dods, but could only finish 6th of 7, beaten by almost 4.5 lengths.

She's down in trip and has been eased 3lbs by the assessor, but she'd still have room to improve if she wants to win here. That said, she's the main eye-catcher in another sea of red on Instant Expert...

...where Colors of Freedom also has some good numbers, especially over this trip. Based on recent outings...

I'd imagine the field will have chase to Statu of Liberty down to win, as she appears to be one most likely to set the tempo of the contest in a race that has favoured front runners in the past...

.

So far so good for Statu, then and the draw has her in stall 2 with only Tantalus inside her, but sadly the higher drawn runners have done much better here...

...but pace is more important than draw here over a straight 5f, as shown by the pace/draw heat map...

Summary

In race 1, we got it down to Apple Away, Hoganville & Leostar and they're priced at 5/2, 6/1 and 8/1 , from which only Leostar is worth backing E/W (keep an eye out for firms paying 4 places). All three are capable of making the frame, but if pushed for the winner, I'd fancy Apple Away to 'pip' (sorry!) the other two.

As for the evening contest at Newcastle, Statu of Liberty has plenty going for her, but I do fancy the top two in the market Sugar Hill Babe (5/2) and the 11/4 Colors of Freedom to beat her, but Statu currently trades at 9/1, so is of E/W interest.

Racing Insights, Saturday 11/02/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated just one runner under the 1-year form filter...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.25 Newbury
  • 2.33 Lingfield
  • 3.13 Warwick
  • 4.00 Naas
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton

It's a decent looking contest that Sayadam is entered into, but we don't often have top quality Grade 2 contests on the 'free list' and as it's named after one of my all-time favourite jumpers, I feel I should look at the Denman Chase. The card says it's the 2.25 Newbury, a 7-runner, 5yo+ handicap chase over 18 fences on good ground, The race is worth almost £40k to the winner and the trip is just shy of 2m7½f, these are the runners...

There's a school of thought that this is two races in one, where Eldorado Allen, Fanion D'Estruval and Hitman will battle it out for the big money and the rest scrap it out for the remnants of the pot and to be perfectly honest with you, I'd be inclined to agree.

Does He Know won LTO and four races ago, Hitman won two starts back, as did Zanza whilst Sam Brown won three back. Eldorado Allen, Sam Brown & Fanion D'Estruval all sport cheekpieces for the first time whilst Kalashnikow tries blinkers. Five of the field were last seen on Boxing Day, but Sam brown has been off for ten weeks and Does He Know's LTO win was three months ago. He's the only one yet to win here at Newbury, but he has won over a similar trip in a 3m chase at Ascot, whereas Sam Brown's distance win was over fences at Lingfield. Top and bottom on the card, Eldorado Allen and Zanza are former course and distance winners.

The Geegeez-sponsored yard of Anthony Honeyball train Sam Brown and he's the oldest in the field at 11, whilst the youngest is the likely fav, the 7yo Hitman who attempts to go beyond 2m5½f for only the second time (pulled up at Kempton LTO on first try). Hitman is however, best off at the weights based on weight carried to official ratings and he's 2lbs better off than Fanion D'Estruval and a whole 17lbs clear of Zanza, who looks worst off by a good way.

Those course and distance wins mentioned above are documented below in Instant Expert, along with the stats for Class and Going...

...and they interestingly show Does He Know in a very good light and he's already won a Grade 2 and a Class 1 handicap this year. Ten of Fanion D'Estruval's fourteen starts have been at Class 1, but he has yet to win any and has only made the frame twice. Hitman (0/9) and Kalashnikov (1/11) have also struggled at this level, but the former has at least made the frame in five of those nine defeats and will be seeking to do better here in a race where last year's winner Eldorado Allen and the veteran Sam Brown are the likeliest front-runners...

Three of the field were held up LTO, but I suspect they'll all race ahead of Fanion D'Estruval and Kalashnikov, because if they don't, there's going to be nothing going on behind the front pair who might set themselves up for a free tilt at the prize money. That's actually a decent tactic and the further back the hold-up types drop, the less chance they'll have of winning, if past races are anything to go by...

In fact the story of last year's win for Eldorado Allen goes like this...Led, but hit 12th fence and was narrowly headed at the 13th. He then chased and caught the leader for himself to lead again 4 out, ending up 3 lengths clear at the last, staying on strongly on the run-in... A similar approach here might well yield a similar result.

Summary

I'm not that keen on the favourite, Hitman, here to be honest. He bled last time out and that's a concern, he's never actually gone this far in a race and has a poor win record at Class 1, making Eldorado Allen a more attractive option to me at 11/4.

Fanion D'Estruval completes the 'favoured' trio, but he might have to come from a long way back to get involved and I've got a feeling that Does He Know might run a better race than his 7/1 odds might suggest. Bookies are generally paying three places here, so he might be an option for a cheeky E/W punt.

Whatever you decide to do, I hope you all have a great weekend. I'm away with the family for my mother-in-law's 75th Birthday, so my next instalment will be on Monday evening for Tuesday's racing.

Racing Insights, Friday 10/02/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

Sadly, my chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded no UK qualifiers for Friday...

...but I can still fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.40 Southwell
  • 3.15 Southwell
  • 3.55 Dundalk
  • 4.45 Kempton
  • 6.15 Chelmsford

And the best of those (on paper, at least) for me to cover looks like being the 6.15 Chelmsford. Just six are set to go to post for this Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed 1m2f on standard polytrack...

ABSOLUTE RULER drops down a class here and wears cheekpieces for the second time, but they had little effect last time out as he was last home of seven, beaten by 19 lengths over this trip at Newcastle 16 days ago. Hard to see him getting involved here and his yard are on a 20+ losing run (as of 3pm Thursday).

FAST STYLE has made the frame in five of seven A/W starts, winning twice, both over a mile at Kempton and Newcastle. Last won three starts ago and was subsequently only beaten by a neck over 1m½f at Wolverhampton at today's class/mark. Wasn't as good at Kempton LTO, but he was up in class that day and now drops back down. This is, however, 1½f further than any of his other A/W efforts.

TARAVARA won at Southwell by a neck over a mile two months ago, but could only manage to finish 10th of 14 back at the same course and distance next/last time out a month ago. That's his only win in twenty career starts and probably won't win this either, even if his yard have a good 1-year (4 from 10) and 5-year (10 from 37) record on this track.

JENSON BENSON is one of just two previous course winners, having landed a Class 6, 7f handicap here nine months ago. He was beaten by a length and a half after being forced wide at Wolverhampton 18 days ago, but he's better than that as typified by three narrow defeats from his previous four outings and is now a pound lower than when sent off as an even money favourite here over a mile last May is a 0.75 length defeat when sent for home a little too late.

GIORGIO VASARI doesn't win many, as shown by a 1 in 16 record on the A/W, but since that win two months ago, which came off the back of a 230-day absence, he has been running consistently well. He won off a mark of 52, but then finished 2232 off marks of 57, 58, 58 and 61 before a below par effort at Wolverhampton last time out in a falsely run race. The step back up in trip might help but others hold more appeal. Wears first-time cheekpieces.

ENGRAVE steps up in class after a win over this trip at Newcastle 16 days ago ended a run of 15 straight defeats since the last of her five course and distance wins. She has tackled this track and trip 22 times so far and has made the frame in 12 (54.5%) of them, leading to those five wins. She's up 2lbs for that win, but jockey Rose Daws claims 7, more than making up for the rise. Carrying 10 to 25lbs less than her rivals, she's probably the one to beat here and her course/distance form is easily detected on our Instant Expert feature...

Engrave is clearly far more experienced/exposed than the others, but you do sort of know what you're going to get from her. She's the one closest to her last winning mark and is the course/distance specialist albeit historical form. I'm a little concerned at Jenson Benson and Giorgio Vasari having largely failed at this grade and the latter's 'best' A/W form has been on Tapeta.

With such a small field and a 1m2f trip, I suspect the pace of the race might well prove more important than the draw, but let's quickly check if any of the six might have an advantage at the start...

There's not a great deal in it, if truth be told, but given the choice you'd probably want to be in stall 2 (Fast Style) or on the rail (Engrave), but stall 6 hasn't done badly either, so it's really a case of what you do with the draw, because if you dwell from those preferred stalls, you could be in trouble...

...because it's pretty common knowledge (here on Geegeez anyway!) that pace wins the race at Chelmsford as shown by the stats from those races above, so if Fast Style and/or Engrave are fast starters, they might be tough to catch/beat. Sadly for the former, he isn't, but the sole mare in the race is expected to take it on...

...which creates a little dilemma for me!

Summary

I didn't like Absolute Ruler from the off and neither Taravara nor Giorgio Vasari win often enough for my liking, so that's the field halved. I do like the other trio and I suspect there won't be much to choose between the three.

The mare Engrave won last time out, receives bundles of weight all round and is the course and distance specialist. She's got the best pace/draw profile but wasn't in good form prior to that win last time out and now steps up in class. Fast Style has been in better recent form and has a win and two places from four on polytrack. He seems to have the plum draw and has made the frame in all three runs at this grade. The hope here is that he sets off a bit quicker with Engrave inside of him and he did race more prominently at Wolverhampton three weeks ago. As for Jenson Button, he loves the track here but is unproven at this class and also beyond a mile. His recent form hasn't been as good as Fast Style and he may well be too high in the weights.

It might well be that you can throw a blanket over them at the finish, but if I had to side with one, it would be Fast Style. I'm only really concerned about him getting off quickly enough, but with Engrave on his inside, he should get towed along nicely. Engrave has plenty going for her, but the step up in class and an inexperienced rider might be her undoing.

Fast Style was a best priced 7/2 with Hills at 4pm, whilst Engrave was the same price with Bet365. Jenson Button was a surprising (to me, anyway) early favourite at 3/1 with Hills and only 9/4 with Stoke's finest.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 09/02/22

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.40 Doncaster
  • 4.10 Huntingdon
  • 5.40 Newcastle
  • 6.40 Newcastle

...from which I'm going to look at the 4.10 Huntingdon, an open-looking 9-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right handed 2m3½f on good ground...

GALORE DESASSENCES won at this trip on his last hurdles run (2 starts ago) and his record in cheekpieces over hurdles reads 113P1 with the '3' coming in a Kempton Grade 2 almost a year ago. He's 12lbs higher than last win, where he was comfortably clear of the pack by 12 lengths, but he could have won by more and might not be weighted out of this just yet.

WEST CORK won back to back hurdles races here in the 2019/20 season and was a Grade 3 hurdle winner at Cheltenham in November 2021 and had three subsequent decent efforts at that level before a fall 3 out at Haydock last May. he took six months off and has raced over fences since his return in November, but was last home of three three starts ago prior to being pulled up in his last two. Now back over hurdles 5lbs higher than his last Grade 3 win.

HUNTERS CALL won on his 2021 seasonal reappearance at Bangor over today's trip, but that was the highlight of his winter, until finishing a runner-up at Uttoxeter in April. He was then off for over six months, before starting this campaign back at Bangor in November when third of nine off 3lbs higher than today.

SONIGINO had a wind op during his summer break last year and won both starts back in a pair of Class 3, 2m½f contests at Chepstow in October, but found a 2-class & 10lb rise too much next/last time out, when almost 30 lengths adrift as 8th of 13 at Cheltenham two months ago. Some respite here as he's down a class and 2lbs.

GIPSY DE CHOISEL ran and won once in France (soft ground, 2m3f, May 2020), but took five races to get off the mark here in the UK, scoring over 2m (class 3, good) at Warick to end his season in mid-May. He returned in November up in class and weight to finish 5th of 9, beaten by 12 lengths and now makes a 3½f step up in trip.

BOURBALI was excellent last season, starting off over today's trip at Class 5 off a mark of 101 and finished 1432111, culminating in a Class 3 win off 124. More recently he was 3rd of 10 over 2m5f at Cheltenham in November off 126 and then 2nd of 15 at the same trip/weight at Kempton on Boxing Day. Up 2lbs and one class here but down in trip.

TOO FRIENDLY won his first two over hurdles in October/November 2021 as a 3yo, both over 2m½f on good to soft ground, but one at Class 4 and one at Class 2. More recently has been the runner-up in each of his last two, but is up in class, trip and weight here.

HYDROPLANE is 4 from 14 over hurdles, but hasn't 'jumped' since mid-March, when a 16-lengths 10th of 22 in a Sandown Grade 3 hurdle. Has raced three times over 2m on the Flat/AW since finishing 163 and now reverts to hurdles at the same class/mark as his last NH success 13 months ago.

MOVEIT LIKE MINNIE had an eight month break last year returning in late November and has finished 121 in three starts since, all under today's 5lb claimer and although he's clearly in good nick, he's 10lbs and two classes higher here. He won at this track last time out and won over this trip at Taunton in November, but the big jump in weight/class could be an issue.

Instant Expert gives us a clear overview of a field's past record under expected conditions as follows...

...and underfoot conditions shouldn't be too much of an issue here. Galore des Assences is only 1 from 5 on good, but has made the frame in 2 of 4 defeats and has won on both quicker and slower ground than this, whilst Too friendly has a pair of runner-up finishes in his last two on good ground, but wouldn't mind a bit of rain! Most of the field are largely unproven/untested at this level, although several of them have Class 1 experience (West Cork has made the frame in 4 of 6 inc 1 win) and that lack of experience also extends to this course, but those who have run here previously seem to have handled it OK with three of them sharing 3 wins and a place from 5 visits.

As for the trip, again those with experience have handled it well, although you could say that Hunters Call looks like more of a placer than a winner, but at just 1lb above his last winning mark, he's very well treated here, especially in comparison to Galore Des Assences at +12 and Sonigino at +8 etc, but at this point, I wouldn't rule any of these out from making the frame, including top-weight Galore!

We should remember that he's up 12lbs for a facile 12 length win that could have been 20 or 30 lengths had they wanted to. Now, he generally runs in mid-division or a little further back without actually been held up at the back, which is probably where six-time Class 1 runner West Cork is likely to be in a race that will probably be headed by the likes of Sonigino, although Gipsy de Choisel and Bourbali have both led in recent outings...

...and if I was to split the field into the four Geegeez running styles, I'd probably say...

Leader(s) : Sonigino (possibly Bourbali)

Prominent : Bourbali, Gipsy de Choisel, Move It Like Minnie

Mid-Division : Galore Des Assences, Hunters Call, Too Friendly, Hydroplane

Hold-Up : West Cork

We can then look at how this type of race has unfolded here at Huntingdon in the past (I now cross my fingers for some clarity!) via the Geegeez Pace Analyser...

...where leaders/prominent runners are nearly 2.75 times more likely to win and 1.66 times more likely to place than those racing further back, which is better news for the likes of Sonigino, Bourbali, Gipsy de Choisel and Move It Like Minnie.

Summary

The race itself looks fiendishly difficult to call but Move It Like Minnie interests me, because he's in great form and will race prominently enough to stay in touch, but he's massively up in weight and class and whilst he might pull out a career-best here, I don't want to back him as low as 7/2. If I then remain with the pace runners, Sonigino is the likely pace-maker and he's down in class and weight here, but might need more assistance before winning again, I'd normally be interested in him as an E/W bet, but again 6/1 doesn't excite me for that type of punt.

Gipsy de Choisel is priced at 7's, which again is a little short for me as an E/W bet, but he looks a decent type, who'll need to bounce back from a disappointing return to action at Ascot in November, which I suppose leaves us with Bourbali, who we know will be towards the head of the pack. I'm not convinced he wins here up in class and weight, but was in great form this last year and comes here off the back of two good runs making the frame at big prices. He has 3 wins and 2 places from 8 on good ground and 4 wins/2 places from 7 at this trip, so he's be my idea of an E/W option at 9/1, especially if you can get on with a firm paying four places.

There's every possibility that I've overlooked the winner in that quartet or even amongst the other five, but I didn't have a strong view on the contest as a whole and when that's the case, I tend not to pick a winner, but look for an option to make the frame at an acceptable price.

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 08/02/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.15 Fairyhouse
  • 1.45 Fairyhouse
  • 2.30 Ludlow
  • 6.30 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

...and I think I'll see how the in-form yard gets on against the 1-year course specialist in the 7.00 Kempton, where Olympic Quest and Bernadine from my TS report are two of the nine runners tackling a Class 6, 3yo A/W handicap over a right handed mile on standard to slow polytrack...

An unusual race here in that females outnumber the males with runners 1, 5, 7 & 9 being the boys (only #5 Fully Deployed has been gelded) and it's a race lacking in experience. They've only raced 44 times between them so far and of that 44, numbers 1, 6 & 7 (Outrace, Bernadine & Greavsie) account for 24 with the other six runners out just three or four times. The three most experienced runners are the only previous winners too and all have won here at Kempton already.

Outrace & Bernadine both won over course and distance last time out, whilst Greavsie was a three-quarter length runner-up over track & trip. He did, however, win here over 7f two months ago and has won over a mile at Ffos Las back in September. I suspect that this might become a three-horse race, as the rest of the field haven't even made the frame in twenty combined starts. The three 'most likely' contenders all ran at this grade LTO, as did Fully Deployed but the other five all drop in class and it's a handicap debut for Olympic Quest and Paco's Pride, whilst Fully Deployed and Top of the Class tackle a handicap for just the second time.

The latter has been off the track the longest at 127 days, but aside from bottom-weight Double Down's 10-week absence, the rest have all been seen in the last 25 days with both Outrace and Greavsie running here a week ago. It's the second time in a hood for Olympic Quest and a second race since being gelded for Fully Deployed, whilst the bottom two on the card, Martini Lodge & Double Down will be sporting new headgear in the form of cheekpieces and a visor respectively.

We know that we're not going to get much from Instant Expert, but it's useful to see how many times the field has tackled similar conditions...

And at this point, Greavsie would look the weakest of the more experienced trio. Whilst of those with no data, Top of the Class has only raced at 6/7f in Class 3-5 contests and Paco's Pride has three 7f runs at Class 4/5 to her name as does Martini Lodge.

In past similar contests here at Kempton, stalls 4, 6 and 9 have an inexplicably poor record, but I'm not convinced that there's a huge draw bias here...

...which means that the actual pace of the race might be the aspect to focus on. All nine have had at least three runs to date, so we'll hopefully have enough data to see a pattern forming as to their running style(s)...

...where it looks like Outrace will attempt to set the fractions from stall 4, attempting to get across the likes of Fully Deployed and Double Down in boxes 3 & 1 respectively. Conversely Greavsie looks like he will dropped in at the back for a late surge, but the pace stats for those races above suggest he'd be better off stepping up a gear somewhat earlier...

Summary

I'd be surprised if this race didn't go to one of the three more experienced runners Outrace, Bernadine & Greavsie. Of the three Greavsie has looked weakest on form, Instant Expert and pace and I prefer Outrace over Bernadine on the very same grounds. If none of the less exposed runners break into the top three, then I'd expect an Outrace-Bernadine-Greavsie 1-2-3 but sadly the market agrees with Outrace installed as a 3/1 favourite with my other pair at 4's.

 

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 07/02/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the 2.45 Market Rasen contest is of obvious interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover this trio from the Black Country...

  • 6.00 Wolverhampton
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

And although the clash of two Shortlist runners at Market Rasen appeals to me, they're both likely to be fairly popular in the market and the middle of our three 'free' A/W races looks an interesting affair where I'd guess the top six or seven in the market will be covered by about 4 or 5 points. That race is, of course, the 7.00 Wolverhampton, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed 7f on standard tapeta...

And as well as expecting a close market, the 2nd to 8th runners in the weights will only have a 3lb spread with two of them coming here off the back of a win last time out : Keyser Soze and Jilly Cooper. Of the rest, only Amber Island, Larado, Master Zoffany and Revolutionise have a win in their visible form line, although Tylos has been a runner-up in each of his last two.

Tylos actually drops down from Class 2 to run here, as do top-weight Moai and Farhh To Shy with Larado dropping in from a Listed race last weekend. As with four class droppers, we also have four stepping up, all from Class 4 and they are LTO winners Keyser Soze and Jilly Cooper along with Revolutionise and Counsel.

Moai runs in a handicap for just the second time (15 lengths, last of 10, a fortnight ago!), whilst Tylos now wears cheekpieces for the first time to hopefully get a bit more of him in a bid to land a second course and distance success. Amber Island, Master Zoffany, Jilly Cooper and Revolutionise have also all won over this 7f  trip here in the past and all bar top-weight Moai and bottom weight Perseverants have scored over this distance somewhere, but the C&D winners are the only previous course winners.

Amber Island returns from the longest break, but shouldn't have got too rusty in a 6-week rest, whilst Larado is pitched back in three days after a Listed race and 8 of the 11 have raced in the last 20 days. We know that most of these have won at today's trip, but not many have scored at Class 3 on the A/W, according to Instant Expert...

...but a few of them have good place numbers at this level...

...somewhat (if not totally) allaying my fears about both Amber Island & Keyser Soze only having 1 from 7 records at Class 3. Elsewhere Amber Island was third over C&D LTO and remains 6lbs higher than her last win, four starts ago, whilst Revolutionise (who looks solidly if unspectacularly consistent on IE) is 5lbs higher than his last win. The ones obviously catching the eye from above are Tylos, Master Zoffany and Jilly Cooper, three of our course and distance winners.

If we look at past 11-runner contests over 7f here at Wolverhampton, our Draw Analyser says...

...stalls 1 to 7 are the best place to run from, whilst the Pace stats from those same races suggest...

...that leader/prominent runners are twice as likely to win those further back in the pack and this is further highlighted by the pace/draw heat map...

Although stalls 1 to 7 were favoured on the draw stats, the heat map above does tend to imply that pace is more important than draw, so let's now look at who might (based on recent evidence) be the ones racing in the upper half of the field...

And whilst not all runners run the same way every time they turn out, I'm fairly confident that Larado will be trying to blast out of stall 6 in a bid to make all, whilst Keyser Soze is generally a slow/poor starter. And for more recent runs, here's how the field's last two races have panned out...

...which does suggest that Jilly Cooper is the one most likely to chase Larado.

Summary

Three of the course and distance winners caught the eye on Instant Expert : Tylos, Master Zoffany and Jilly Cooper. Jilly Cooper comes here in the best form of any of this field, having finished 1252731 over the last four months. That run includes three course and distance efforts with results of 131 and she's just 3lbs higher than the last two of those. All of which makes Jilly Cooper very much the one to beat here for me.

Both Tylos and Master Zoffany hold good chances of making the frame, as indeed do Farhh To Shy and Amber Island, but it would be Jilly Cooper that interests me most here. Only hills are open for this race at the moment and they go 9/2 about the filly, which is actually a good point longer than I expected. E/W punters might want to wait until SkyBet, Paddy Power and/or Unibet open up, as they're all paying on the first four home.

Racing Insights, Monday 06/02/23

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Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 2.30 Fontwell
  • 3.00 Fontwell
  • 5.30 Wolverhampton

...but none of them really appeal to me, so I decided to have a quick look at the pace graphic for every race on Monday and the one with the biggest spread was this...

...from the 7.30 Wolverhampton, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta. Here's the card...

Top-weight Mint Edition is the form horse here and comes seeking a hat-trick, whilst Gilded Moon is the only other with a recent win and none of Mint Edition's rivals even made the frame LTO.

Those two recent winners above are the only two not moving in class, as four (Sprezzatura, Grand Central, Fox Flame and bottom-weight Ski Jump) all drop from Class 5, whilst Quizlet raced at Class 4 LTO.

Ski Jump makes just a second handicap run and wears first-time cheekpieces whilst both Quizlet and Fox Flame make handicap debuts in a field rated 16lbs different from top to bottom. As for the field's last run, two (Mint Edition & Grand Central) have been quickly sent back out after 3 & 6 days rest respectively, three (Sprezzatura, Gilded Moon & Ski Jump) return from a short break of a fortnight or slightly longer, but both handicap debutants have been off for three months or more and might need a run.

None of these have won at either track nor trip. Mind you, only two of these have won a race before, so we'll probably need to concentrate on the second (places) of these two Instant Expert graphics...

...where it seems that those yet to win, don't even make the frame either!

So let's go back to that pace graphic we started with also add in the recent pace scores...

...and then compare that with past similar races here at Wolverhampton...

...where those racing furthest forward have the best record for win and place. Prominent runners make the frame as often as leaders but are only 73.5% as likely to win and the two I'd take from the pace chart would be Gilded Moon & Grand Central based on their last two outings, yet this pair are drawn apart in stalls 5 & 1 respectively, so who might have the best draw, if there is any advantage to be gained?

Our draw stats from those 120-odd races above say that a mid to high draw works best...

...with stalls 3 to 5 possibly the best place to be...

...which might be good news for Mint Edition, Ski Jump & Gilded Moon, whilst the pace draw heatmap...

...might look a little like this when we superimpose our field's draw and recent pace scores...

...where despite the difference in the draw, our two pace 'standouts' Grand Central & Gilded Moon look best placed on the combo.

Summary

Not a great race if truth be told, but I picked it purely to highlight the differing pace approaches taken in a race. I quickly assessed the field for form, race suitability, pace and draw and these were the ones that interested me most...

Form : Mint Edition & Gilded Moon
Instant Expert : Mint Edition & Gilded Moon
Pace : Gilded Moon & Grand Central
Draw : Mint Edition, Ski Jump & Gilded Moon
Pace/Draw : Grand Central & Gilded Moon

It's a fairly simplistic approach I've taken, of course, but of 11 names above Mint Edition is three of them and Gilded Moon is five, so they're the two I'm interested in now.

For me, Mint Edition should be winning this all day long and actually beat Gilded Moon by 6½ lengths on the latter's last outing 17 days ago. Gilded Moon is now 8lbs better, giving the filly a better chance of getting close, but a runner-up spot is surely the best she can hope for.

At the time I wrote this, only Hills had opened a book and they were putting Mint Edition up as an even money favourite and whilst I'm not into backing shorties, those of you who do might want to consider this one, as there could well still be some value in that price.

The beauty of a short-priced fav is that you can often get a decent E/W bet from it and the 10/1 about Gilded Moon might either be a little generous or a wasted stake. I think she's better than 10/1, whether she succeeds or not.

Racing Insights, Saturday 04/02/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...but they have generated no runners for me to look at, so it's a good job we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 12.10 Lingfield
  • 1.55 Leopardstown
  • 2.20 Sandown
  • 3.16 Musselburgh
  • 5.30 Kempton

...from which, I'm going to look at the 3.16 Musselburgh, a 10-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle on good to soft ground. They'll go right handed for just over 1m7½f and here's the card...

Nayati and Lebowski both won last time out and have both won three of their last five runs, as indeed has Parisencore. Inca Prince has a couple of wins in his recent formline, whilst only Band of Outlaws and Kihavah are winless in five (7 & 8 to be precise!)

The afore-mentioned Parisencore last raced in Class 1 handciap and drops down a level to run here, whilst both Lebowski & Grivetana step up a level with out of form Kihavah up two classes from an A/W run, but is only one class higher than his last hurdles effort and after having failed to complete his last two hurdles races (FP) he now wears cheekpieces for the first time.

Despite his current poor form, Kihavahis one of five to have won over course and distance, along with Nayati, Inca Prince, Collingham and Socialist Agenda. The other five runners have all also won over a similar trip elsewhere, but none have scored here at Musselburgh.

Lebowski has been off the track for nine weeks, Parisencore for ten weeks and Inca Prince for nineteen weeks, so they might be a little rusty, but their seven rivals have all raced in the last five weeks with top-weight Camprond out as recently as last Saturday in a poor show at Cheltenham. He's also one of four (along with Band of Outlaws, Grivetana & Socialist Agenda) yet to win a NH race on good to soft ground, whilst Band Of Outlaws & Collingham are the only ones to have tackled Class 2 racing without winning, according to Instant Expert...

...where the ones making most appeal to me are Nayati, Lebowski, Inca Prince and Parisencore. Kivavah has some good numbers but is in wretched form, whilst last year's winner of this race, Socialist Agenda has also struggled of late and was only 6th of 10 here over course and distance on New Year's Day, some 15 and 13 lengths behind the first two home, the re-opposing Donald McCain trained duo Nayati and Collingham. Nayati is 313161 from his last six (so he probably wins his next one after this!) from a hold up position and based on how the field have positioned themselves in recent outings, he might have company at the rear of the field from Kivavah and possibly his stablemate Collingham...

Nayati's win from the back here last time out is more of an exception to the rule, as those setting the pace normally come out on top, but stats like these...

...won't concern the McCain yard, now they know it's difficult but not impossible.

Summary

Nayati ticks all boxes for me here, bar the pace profiling. He's in great form (3 wins and 2 places from 6), he's a course and distance winner only up 3lbs and he has a whole line of green on Instant Expert. The horses that finished third and fifth behind him and Collingham here on New Year's Day have both re-appeared and won, franking the form of that race and I'm happy to overlook his apparent poor pace profile. He has all his recent form from a hold up position and it did him no harm last time around, so he's the one to beat in my eyes.

Nayati is currently as big as 6/1 with both Coral & Ladbrokes and I think that might be generous as I expected him to be maybe a couple of points shorter. Stablemate Collingham is 3lbs better off with Nayati and could also run a big race, although 15/2 would be borderline in my opinion about an E/W bet. Lebowski is sure to be involved and his 4/1 ticket is about what I expected.

The two I though might have an outside squeak of being E/W picks were Parisencore & Inca Prince. They both scored well on Instant Expert and are likely to be setting the pace, so it's not inconceivable that one (or both!) might hang on for a place. Parisencore was going really well until stepped up to Class 1 last time out, so a drop in class and weight might revitalise him and 9/1 isn't a bad price, but the market isn't keen on Inca Prince, who can be had as big as 20/1. He had a good winter last year but his summer/autumn form left a fair bit to be desired and it's a case of which version turns up here. He's had 19 weeks off and I've a feeling that he'll either bounce back of just flop here, no inbetweens : the 20/1 gamble is whether he bounces or not. If it helps, Sky go 4 places 😉

Racing Insights, Friday 03/02/03

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded four qualifiers for Friday...

...and I can also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.40 Catterick
  • 4.05 Chepstow
  • 4.30 Dundalk
  • 4.40 Chepstow
  • 6.15 Newcastle

...and having made the frame in all seven (six x handicap) career runs at Lingfield, we should see how Starshiba might fare back there for the 2.50 race, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed mile on standard polytrack...

Starshiba has 3 wins and 3 places from his last six outings, but both Brains (on a hat-trick here) and Unforgotten are the ones who won last time out. The latter, however, carries top weight up in class on handicap debut after an absence of 22 months and might well need a run.

Tropez Power, Enough Already, Gavi Gavi and George Morland have also all won relatively recently with just Farasi Lane, Million Thanks and bottom weight Dashing Dick on losing runs of 11, 5 and 10 races respectively with the latter having a 0 from 12 record on the A/W.

Aside from Unforgotten, none of these are moving class and none have been off track for more than four months with all bar Farasi Lane having raced inside the last five weeks, but he has been off for 109 days during which time he has undergone wind surgery.

Enough Already is showing as having a change of yard and he's now back with Lee Carter, less than eleven months after moving out of the yard. Since then he's had a win and two places from five runs for Henry Spiller and then finished 4th of 8 in both starts for Tony Carroll before finding himself back with Mr Carter.

He has won here over 1m2f and over a mile at Brighton & Yarmouth, but has no course and distance win. That, however, has been achieved by our H4C horse, Starshiba (who has finished 113 in three efforts over C&D), Brains, Gavi di Gavi and George Morland, whilst Tropez Power, Farasi Lane and Million Thanks have at least all won over a mile elsewhere. Only top and bottom weights, Unforgotten and Dashing Dick are winless at both course and distance and this will be reflected by Instant Expert...

Unforgotten is making just a fourth start, but has been a course and distance runner-up at a lower class twice already and may need the run after such a long absence. Tropez Power has ran well on the A/W so far, finishing 61313, but only the '6' came on polytrack when well beaten over 7f at Kempton. Farasi Lane is now some 15lbs higher than his last A/W win, but has actually won off 2lbs higher on turf.

Brains looks consistently solid, but his best form has come on the slower surface at Kempton. Starshiba's only blot is his Class 4 record, but he was a runner-up on both occasions, running on over 7f, so a mile might suit better. Enough Already, however, has struggled to win at Class 4 with a 1/8 record and his best form has been on turf. Gavi di Gavi hasn't this track or trip particularly well in the past, even if he did win over course and distance back in March 2021 and he's still 5lbs higher than that run.

George Morland's numbers are interesting, but his 3 from 3 record at Class 5 compared to 1 from 9 at this level suggests this will be too tough for him, whilst Dashing Dick is just 2 from 29 overall and although he has made the frame in half of his dozen A/W outings, he has yet to break his duck and doesn't look like changing that here.

Our Draw Analyser for similar past races here at Lingfield doesn't show a huge bias...

...but does suggest that the stalls 5 to 9 corridor might have a slight advantage, as they'd hit the turn a little wider and be able to 'cut' the corner and almost slingshot out of it, which is good news for featured runner, Starshiba, who will no doubt let the others get on with things and wait his time at the back, if his last few races are anything to go by...

Brains & possibly the returning Unforgotten are the likeliest front-runners, although going off quickly might not help the latter after such a long lay-off, whilst Starshiba might well have some company at the back of the field, which isn't generally the best placed to be here at Lingfield over a mile as the pace stats from those races above would suggest...

Starshiba is clearly the exception to the rule here, with his excellent record from a hold-up position and were it not for that record, you'd be right to doubt his ability to make up the ground.

Summary

Starshiba has made the frame in all seven visits to Lingfield and has finished 113 in three efforts over this course and distance, despite having a pace profile completely at odds with the way things normally go here. He is, however, well drawn and I can see him making the frame again here. Whether he wins or not is debatable, he was beaten by two heads into third on his last visit off 2lbs lower, so the odds are that a place is as good as it'll get, but at 15/2 early doors, could be a viable E/W proposition.

That market has Unforgotten installed as the 9/4 fav, but he really could be something or nothing. There are too many unknowns about him for my liking and if pushed, I'd prefer the likes of the 5/1 Brains to finish ahead of him.

Racing Insights, Thursday 02/02/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.30 Wincanton
  • 3.00 Wincanton
  • 4.35 Southwell
  • 5.30 Chelmsford

..from which I'm going to look at the 3.00 Wincanton, a 14-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right handed 3m1½f on good to soft ground. It's a stayers' chase, which I do like but 14 runners takes me out of my comfort zone, so I want to quickly cross some of them off and I'll do that by going straight to Instant Expert...

...where I immediately don't like the bottom two on the card. Putdecashonthedash is unplaced in nine runs on good to soft and seven Class 3 races plus is only 1 from 7 on this track, whilst Butterwick Brook has won just one of ten at this grade and one of eleven at 3m-3m2f. They're the two that I'd take out first, but as this kind of race isn't my metier, I'm probably looking initially for an E/W bet, so I'm actually going to rule any out who are in the red for place form at going, class, course or distance and that actually leaves me with just nine...

I left Foxboro in, because he's only had the one run at the trip, but on win stats, he now looks the most vulnerable...

...but now to the racecard itself...

...where sole LTO winner Certainly Red comes seeking a hat-trick and a fourth win in five. Potters Legend is the only one without a relatively recent win and at 13, he's the oldest in the race and hasn't won any of his last ten over almost two years. He has made the frame in three of his last five, though, but is up 3lbs here. Tallow for Coal, Nearly Perfect and Moroder were all pulled up last time out, but Moroder had won four straight prior to that run, Tallow For Coal had two wins and a runner-up finish from four, whilst Nearly Perfect was coming back off a 711-day absence and is now back on the same mark as his last win, a course and distance success here on Boxing Day 2020.

He's actually 2 from 2 over course and distance, whilst Certainly Red and Golden Sovereign have also won at this track/trip. None of the others have won here before, but all bar Foxboro have at least won at a similar trip and most of his running has been at 2m4f/2m4½f and I think he's the weakest here now, as we look at pace profiling.

With Foxboro discarded, I'm now looking at 8 runners for four places (5 with Skybet), so I'm still optimistic of finding an E/W bet. The eight remaining runners have raced as follows in their four outings...

...whilst past previous similar races here at this venue have panned out like this...

...which would suggest a pace score in the region of 2.00 to 3.00 for my E/W punt. So, from the eight above, I'm leaving Certainly Red (who I actually think will win, more on that shortly), Nearly Perfect and Champagne Court out of the running, giving me just five to consider.

Summary

When I refer back to Instant Expert (specifically chase form) for my final decision...

...the two that interest me most are Tallow For Coal and Moroder.

Tallow for Coal should enjoy the conditions here, her yard and jockey are in good form, she gets on well with her rider and these stats are of interest...

He didn't go well last time out, but was still pitching in when a mistake 4 out effectively ended his chances, yet prior to that run, he had won two of his previous four outings and has a month to get over his latest exertions.

As for Moroder, he also looks well suited by conditions but needs to bounce back after a poor effort last time out. He won four on the bounce in three months from December 2021, elevating his mark from 113 to a huge 135. He was then off track for nine months returning on New Year's Eve for a first run off that revised mark and it was probably a combination of the weight and the lay-off that saw him toil and get pulled up.

He's down three pounds here and whilst that doesn't get him into the winner's enclosure, I think he has a chance of making the frame. He has stamina to burn, loves the ground and is still relatively unexposed over fences, whilst his yard are 10 from 23 (43.5% SR) with Class 3/4 handicap chasers over 2m7.5f to 3m2.5f on Good/Good To Soft/Soft ground since the start of 2021.

Neither of these are winning but both have chances of a place and at odds of 10/1 and 33/1 respectively, they could be worth backing. As for the winner, that really should be the in-form Certainly Red, who seems to have it all going for him right now. He's a best priced 9/2 with Bet365 which is probably about right, despite it being a pretty big field.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 01/02/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.35 Exeter
  • 2.17 Dundalk
  • 4.02 Dundalk
  • 4.30 Exeter

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated just one runner on 1 year form and another two runners on 30-day form...

...and as the last of those three 'possibles', Oscars Moonshine, runs in the last of our 'free' races, it makes sense to have a quick look at the 4.30 Exeter, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m7f on good to soft ground...

Sacre Coeur won last time out, Top of the Bill won two starts ago and Ocasrs Moonshine, Sporting Ace and Longshanks have all also won at least one in five. Sporting Ace looks the most consistent on results, whilst Longshanks has failed to complete his last three runs, Padleyourowncanoe hasn't finished either of his last two and Buckhorn George has been pulled up in three of his last five.

Top of the Bill, Astigar, Oscars Moonshine and Longshanks all drop a class, whilst top-weight Padleyourowncanoe drops two levels for his yard debut after leaving the Skeltons. Top of the Bill wears cheekpieces for the first time whilst Astigar has a second crack at a handicap after a 20 length defeat at Cheltenham.

Oscars Moonshine has won here over course and distance with Padleyourowncanoe (2m1f hurdle), Longshanks (2m3f chase) and Chloe's Court (2m6f hurdle) also previously successful at this track, whilst Top of the Bill has won over three miles at Chepstow.

None of the field are turned out quickly and none are coming off long breaks with all having run in the last 24-82 days. We know that we've four course winners, but Instant Expert also highlights four good to soft NH winners, seven Class 4 winners and five who have scored at 2m6f to 3m...

Padleyourowncanoe has a reasonable set of numbers there, but would prefer it softer and comes here on a run of 12 defeats stretching back almost two years, hence him now being 13lbs lower than his last win.

Top of the Bill has a win and a place from 6 over hurdles after placing in four bumpers. He did win over 3m at Chepstow on good to soft in December and although 5lbs higher than that win, he's a class lower.

Sacre Coeur finally got off the mark over hurdles in the UK last time out, but has won over hurdles and fences in France. He's only up 3lbs for that win, but I am slightly concerned at his failure to get round in four of twelve starts.

Astigar is lightly raced under today's conditions, but has a line of red on Instant Expert after failed to win any of five starts. His best run came when second here a year ago, but that was over a trip some 5.5f shorter than today and he struggled to see 2m5f out last time.

Oscars Moonshine has 3 wins and a place from ten over hurdles, but the three wins came in a 12-day purple patch in October 2020, after having failed to make the frame in his first five career starts. He was off a year after those wins and was a runner-up on his return in October '21. He then didn't race for 11 months and has been beaten by 15L and 17L in two races this season. He gets the trip but isn't in form.

Sporting Ace looks the one to beat for me so far and has run consistently well over the last 13 months, finishing 21 in two bumpers and then 11223 over hurdles. Trip is no issue with a 3m win under his belt and a mark of 115 doesn't look stiff. Down 3f today which will also help.

Longshanks is 1 from 5 over hurdles and 1 from 8 over fences and was pulled up & then unseated his rider in his last two chases, before reverting to hurdles at Wincanton in January. He was in the process of going well before falling two out and this inability to complete allied with a step up in trip gives me grounds for concern.

What About Time won on hurdles debut (2m4f) at Uttoxeter in Mid-November 2020 and then had almost a year off followed by two indifferent runs inside a month. Another 11 month break followed and he returned to finish just 8th of 12 at Ludlow last November, beaten by 22 lengths, but showed some positive signs when an 8.5 length runner-up on Boxing Day at Huntingdon. Has potential but lacks consistency.

Buckhorn George hasn't completed six of his last eight starts including a fall here in November 2021 and five times pulled up, He was second at Fontwell almost a year ago, but that run looks to be the exception to the norm in a run of results reading PFPP2P4P (the 4 was 4th of 5, beaten by 19 lengths)

Chloe's Court won here over 2m6f on soft ground just over two years ago, but has only won a total of 2 races from 25 attempts. Her record at Class 4 is abject and she comes here off the back of a 40+ lengths defeat at Hereford.

So far, the three I'm most interested in are (alphabetically) Sacre Coeur, Sporting Ace and Top of the Bill and if recent outings are anything to go by, Sacre Coeur and Top of the Bill will have to launch their bids for victory from the back of the field, whereas Sporting Ace is expected to be one of the front-runners...

...in a type of race that has served front-runners very well indeed...

Summary

Alphabetically Sacre Coeur, Sporting Ace and Top of the Bill are the three I'd want against the field here and with Sporting Ace being in the best progressive form of the three and also having the most suitable pace profile, he'd be the one to beat in my eyes. He's currently 9/2 with Bet365 with the other pair at 4/1 and 5/1 respectively in a tight market.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 31/01/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where at least the first five are worth a second look.

As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.35 Newcastle
  • 2.42 Limerick
  • 3.45 Newcastle
  • 4.00 Ffos Las

...and as Shortlist Horse Fortified Bay runs in a 'free' race, I'm going to look at the 2.35 Newcastle, a 7-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-hand 3m (after rail movements) on soft ground...

Fortified Bay won last time out, but all bar Castle Rushen (serial placer) and Wowsham (possibly weakest in the field) have won at least one of their last five and the two who are winless in five both won six races back. The Shortlist horse steps up in class after that win 16 days ago and he's the only course and distance winner in this field. Top-weight Morning Spirit drops in class and he's one of just two others (French Paradoxe being the other) to have already won at a similar trip, but we've no other track winners aside from Fortified Bay.

We've nothing new to report regarding surgeries, equipment, yard changes etc, but Wowsham hasn't raced for almost 20 weeks, but his rivals have all been out in the last 40 days and the class rising 11 yr old Fortified Bay is 3yrs older than most of the field.

MORNING SPIRIT has made the frame (9 times) in almost half of his 19 outings but has fared much better over hurdles, although he did win a Class 3, 3m1f, soft ground chase at Carlisle in November. He struggled off this mark LTO and probably needs to come back down in the weights to win again.

CASTLE RUSHEN never raced at all for 20 months prior to appearing at Wetherby in December and unseating his rider upon his chasing debut, but did finish 2nd of 9 here over 2m4½f next/last time out and that Wetherby race is the only time in his nine races that he hasn't finished in the first three home, winig three times and was placed at Listed & Grade 2 over hurdles.

WOWSHAM showed little in six Flat/AW runs prior to winning one of nine over hurdles. Hasn't raced sine mid-September when last home of five, beaten by 68 lengths at Navan and doesn't inspire confidence on his chase debut.

FRENCH PARADOXE has finished F11F in his last four over fences and was 8 lengths clear when falling at the last at Ffos Las just before Christmas. If he gets round today, he has an excellent chance of a third chase win, but will his jumping hold up?

FORTIFIED BAY was off track for 19 months from early May 2021 and was pulled up on his first two runs back (late Nov at Haydock and Boxing Day at Wetherby), but took advantage of a low mark of 117 to win by 10 lengths at Kelso 16 days ago. This is tougher up in class (+1), trip (+2f) and weight (+8lbs).

OLD PAINLESS is a former PTP who didn't do much in three efforts over hurdles, but won by 14 lengths on chase debut just before Christmas and was a runner-up next/last time out, despit going up in class. trip and weight. Up another 6lbs here, though and asked to go further than any of his other five starts under Rules.

HOUSTON TEXAS won three staying chases at Carlisle in a row last year, but struggled to 6th of 10 next time out and since then, has raced just once over hurdles, where he was only 5th of 8. Gets weight all round, but he looks second best of his yard's two runners here behind Castle Rushen

Instant Expert gives us the lowdown on the field's win & place records under similar conditions...

and past similar contests here at Newcastle have favoured those up with the pace...

...which based on the following...

...would appear to make life tougher for Castle Rushen and Houston Texas.

Summary

It looks like a three-horse race to me, between Castle Rushen, French Paradoxe and Old Painless, but none of them emerge from the analysis scot-free.

On form, French Paradoxe has fallen twice in his last four outings and he scored weakest of the three on Instant Expert, He does, however, have the advantage on pace, where Castle Rushen looks the one with ground to make up. Castle Rushen also doesn't win often enough, but is generally good for a place. As for Old Painless, he's now 13lbs higher than his last win and has never raced this far before and with French Paradoxe also considerably higher in the weights than his last win, this could well open the door for Castle Rushen to grab a first win over fences at the third attempt.

Racing Insights, Saturday 28/01/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated qualifiers solely on the 1 year form filter for both track and generally, as follows...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.57 Uttoxeter
  • 2.05 Doncaster
  • 2.32 Uttoxeter
  • 3.15 Doncaster
  • 5.30 Kempton
  • 8.00 Kempton

And as it's quite rare for me to get a top level stayers' handicap on the 'free' list, I think I need to look at the second of our Town Moor offerings, the 3.15 Doncaster, a 12-runner, Class 1, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed three miles on good ground...

Quite a few of these come here in decent form; Mister Coffey, Java Point, Shanty Alley and Coopers Cross were all runners-up in their last race, whilst top-weight GA Law was a winner and Tea For Free has won four on the bounce.

Conversely Windsor Avenue has been pulled up in four of five runs since winnig this race last year and at the age of 11 isn't getting any younger/better. He is, however, the only course and distance winner in the field, courtesy of his run 12 months ago and both Undersupervision & Shanty Alley have Doncaster victories to their names via 3m2f chase wins. Elsewhere only GA Law, Elvis Mail, Mister Coffey, Undersupervision and Coopers Cross have yet to win at this trip.

Four of the top six in the weights raced at this grade last time out, but the rest of the field are either up 1 class (Elvis Mail, Java Point, Cooper's Cross, Cap du Nord) or stepping up from Class 3 action (Mister Coffey, Tea for Free, Undersupervision, Shanty Alley).

GA Law has been off the track the longest at eleven weeks, but within a day the rest of the field have had at least four weeks rest, but have raced in the last eight. GA Law comes back 8lbs higher than his LTO win meaning he'll now carry some 25lbs more than bottom-rated Cap du Nord.

We know that some have these have won over track and trip separately or together in Windsor Avenue's case, but Instant Expert tells me that we have six good ground chase winners and four Class 1 chase winners and although he has never tackled track nor trip, GA Law seems the best suited by conditions...

...but at 8lbs higher than LTO and 3½ furlongs further than he's ever raced before, this won't be a walk in the park with four of his rivals all having won at 3m2f. Windsor Avenue won this race last year, but his record at this class/trip are poor, as is Shanty Alley at the trip, whilst Cap du Nord just looks generally weak.

The corresponding place stats are interesting, though...

Windsor Avenue still looks like being outclassed and Cap du Nord looks like he'll struggle, but Shanty Alley would actually appear to get this trip well, he just doesn't win often enough (he has 8 places and 4 incompletes from his last 12!), but if he gets round he could go well, especially if he's allowed to dictate the tempo of the contest, as according to our pace stats over the field's last four outings, he looks like a candidate to lead them around...

...with Cooper's Cross and Undersupervision the ones biding their time at the back, a tactic that might enable them to pick tiring runners off late on and maybe make the frame, but those 'up top' seems to fare best of all...

Summary

On form you've got to be looking at Mister Coffey, Java Point, Shanty Alley, Coopers Cross, GA Law and Tea For Free as the stronger half of the field. Of these six, GA Law caught the eye on Instant Expert with the others scoring well on place form.

Coopers Cross runs the risk of having too much to do late on from a hold-up position and that's a negative for me. GA Law is probably the one to beat here, but I don't think 5/2 or 3/1 offers great value at 8lbs higher and quite a step up in trip. A similar story for Tea For Free regarding the weight going up by 7lbs, but he'll go well again, I'd guess. That said 11/2 isn't enough to tempt me into an E/W bet.

One who might be worth considering as a long shot E/W punt is front-running Shanty Alley. Instant Expert shows he makes the frame regularly and has done so in 8 of his last 12 and 8 of the last 8 he has completed! He's currently as big as 20/1 and some firms will pay five places instead of four, so who knows?

No column on Sunday for Monday's racing, I'm away for the weekend (Mrs Chris' birthday), but I'll be back with a preview for Tuesday, so have a great weekend.

Racing Insights, Friday 27/01/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded a couple of regular placers on the A/W...

...and this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.05 Doncaster
  • 2.20 Lingfield
  • 3.15 Doncaster
  • 6.15 Wolverhampton

From which, I think I'll have a quick look at the two H4C contenders, starting with Man On A Mission, a 4yr old gelding who'll tackle the 3.55 Lingfield, a 9-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed five furlongs on standard polytrack...

MoaM comes here in great form, having won three on the bounce, but Pablo del Pueblo also won last time out. Our runner is noted as a fast finisher and unlike the other LTO winner, isn't stepping up in class here. He's had 16 days rest since his last run/win and now seeks to land a hat-trick of course and distance successes inside 25 days. Three others (Lilkian, Mick's Spirit & Hey Ho Let's Go) have also won here over 5f, whilst Pablo del Pueblo has won here twice over 6f and over today's trip at Kempton.

The two LTO winners look like taking differing approaches to this contest, as Pablo tends to get out quickly, whilst MoaM tends to time his run for the line a little later, according the field's last four outings...

...and the pair are drawn quite a way from each other with MoaM in stall 3 of 8 and Pablo out widest. Our Draw Analyser & Pace Analyser will hopefully give us an indication of where the optimum placing might be, starting with the draw...

...where there's not a massive bias, but if you had the choice, you'd want to be at the lower end of the draw (good news for MoaM), whilst the pace stats from all those races look like this...

...and these are pretty much what I'd expect over 5f. This means that MoaM will have his work cut out to win, but he's won his last two with similar tactics from stalls 2 of 7 and also from 7 of 8, which almost makes a mockery of our pace/draw heat map...

Pablo sits in high/led, which should give him a great chance of going well and whilst MoaM shouldn't be suited by a low/held-up positioning, he's a fast finisher and will relish conditions according to Instant Expert...

...where he's the clear standout. Pablo is unproven beyond Class 6 and is up in class here. Mick's Spirit looks weak at going/class/trip and Lilkian is the only other consistent looking runner based on win stats.

*

Our second runner is Algheed who goes in the 6.45 Wolverhampton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed 7f on standard tapeta. The racecard...

...says that this 5yr old mare is also in prime form, having won three on the bounce including a course and distance win last time out. None of her rivals come here off the back of a win, but she does step up in class. Three others (Jilly Cooper, Visibility & Global Warning) have also won over course and distance. The yard and jockey are in good form and there's a stack of stats to support our runner here...

Algheed has finished 3111 in her last four by racing in an advanced position and the pace rankings from the field's last four outings suggests she'll be able to tuck in behind Free Solo and Visibility here to get that spot she runs so well from...

...whilst the likes of Rishies Baar and Starshiba are going to have pass everyone else if they're going to be successful. Mind you, the latter is 11313 from his last five, so a hold-up position doesn't necessarily rule him out. He'll make that run from stall 7 with only the likely leader Free Solo outside him. Our featured runner Algheed is just inside in stall 6, so there's a possibility that Starshiba might get drawn into the contest a little sooner than usual.

Of those three runners, the pace stats for past 8-runner 7f contests here suggest Algheed is best suited by the draw...

...whilst a prominent/leading position is the best one to assume in those races...

So, we have Algheed as a mid to high drawn prominent runner and our pace/draw heat map suggests that's a great place to be...

We don't really have any runner to fill the mid-draw mid-div role, so Algheed's placement could well be the best of the lot. There are however, two areas of potential concern as she's going to need another career best here up 5lbs from her last run, but most of these are higher than their last win and the other possible issue is her poor 0/4 record in this grade on the A/W, but her 2 wins and 6 places from 9 Wolverhampton runs might just see her home.

Summary

Two H4C runners in top form...

We started with Man on a Mission, who ticks pretty much every box if you can overlook the fact that he might start slowly, but that hasn't stopped him winning three on the bounce since Christmas. He's only up 3lbs for his latest win and he's the to beat here, I'd say. 5/2 is probably a fair reflection of his chances based on what we've shown above and the main danger might well come from the 11/2 shot Lilkian, who was a length behind the selection LTO and is now 4lbs better off.

Our second runner was Algheed and I like her too, but I'm not quite as bullish about her chances. there are a couple of areas of concern, but she does go really well here and her 2/1 ticket is probably about right. The main rivals in the market are the class-dropping Jilly Cooper, who's back at her best trip and Starshiba, who might well have won last time out had he got going a little sooner. With pace either side of him here, he might get very close to Algheed and I suspect these will be the first three home. Should one fail to fire, it might well open the door to the generally unspectacular, but consistent Visibility, a 4-time track winner, about whom 16/1 might be a tidy E/W punt with Bet365.

You're not getting rich off these two, but they have good chances and they could even land a nice near 10/1 double.

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