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The fallout from that unfortunate Ascot meeting last month continued at Sandown on Saturday when the third member of the famed Absentee Triumvirate made just as emphatic a statement as the other two had signalled a week earlier at Newcastle, writes Tony Stafford.
In all, there were 14 non-appearances that frustrating Saturday afternoon, when faster than expected going was the principal reason for the wholesale withdrawals. But, for the crowds that descended as ever at the Royal racecourse, only three really mattered.
That Constitution Hill, L’Homme Presse and Edwardstone could all stay in their boxes on one day was a kick in the teeth for racegoers. For their owners, and respective trainers Nicky Henderson, Venetia Williams and Alan King, the decision has taken only two weeks to be fully justified in each instance.
Constitution Hill, thrillingly in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle, and L’Homme Presse, grittily and with authority in the Rehearsal Chase, both at Newcastle a week after Ascot, did their bit to a nicety. Then at Sandown on Saturday, last season’s Arkle Chase winner Edwardstone contrived to give a major shake to betting on the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Festival next March.
His nine-length demolition of Paul Nicholls’ Greaneteen in the Tingle Creek Chase was only half the story. Six lengths further back was Shishkin, the one-time Great White Hope of UK jump racing and Nicky Henderson’s nominated successor to Sprinter Sacre and Altior and still highly enough regarded to start even-money in this deep Grade 1 field of top two-mile chasers.
Fourth just behind him was the Joseph O’Brien-trained Gentleman De Mee, the same J P McManus horse that had ended Edwardstone’s winning run of five at Aintree last year. (Aintree it was where L’Homme Presse’s Cheltenham-embellishing five-timer also culminated).
It wasn’t just Gentleman De Mee who got a revenge pasting. It was probably the fact that Edwardstone had been a cab-hailing 23 lengths behind Shishkin in the 2020 Supreme Novice Hurdle that first suggested to Alan King a switch to fences might be a strategic move to avoid that horse in the immediate future.
Edwardstone’s comeback run the following November brought an acceptable fifth in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle, but the initial try at chasing, the following month at Doncaster, ended in a premature conclusion when he unseated his rider at the fourth fence.
After finishing off that season with some solid runs back in handicap hurdles, King was ready for a second shot, but again there was a non-completion, at Warwick. This time, though, it was no fault of his as he was moving in the style of a possible winner when brought down four out.
Since then, Aintree in April apart, it’s been a story of onwards and upwards and, with hindsight, the only shock about Saturday’s race is that he started 5/1. Now he’s only 7/2 second favourite for the championship among two-mile chasers, that market understandably headed at 6/4 by Shishkin’s nemesis, Energumene.
That Willie Mullins champion has yet to appear this term, but we did get a first sight of the season of the Cheltenham Festival (and even more emphatic Punchestown) Bumper winner, Facile Vega. He must rank as one of the best-named animals around, as every one of the five races he has contested has been a Walk In The Park, Facile indeed. Of course, mum was Quevega, who only stopped at six Mares Hurdle wins at Cheltenham because she was feeling broody!
Facile Vega started over hurdles at Fairyhouse on Saturday and the backers who accepted 1/9 about his chance never had a moment’s doubt that they would be collecting. A Gordon Elliott sacrificial object was offered up as token opposition. An Mhi, also by Walk In The Park and half-brother to top-class Slate House, might well be all right, indeed pretty useful, but Facile Vega had 14 lengths to spare with the rest of the 16 runners trailing behind, their presence more a case of autograph hunting than competition. He looks the same at the end of his races as at the start. A true phenomenon!
https://youtu.be/Vh2sR-3ULwQ
That’s the Supreme sorted then, and you must sympathise with Gary Moore, also on the mark on Saturday with one of the best from last season’s Festival Bumper. His Authorised Speed, in finishing fifth, was first home of the UK contingent, and before Saturday had won easily first time over hurdles at Lingfield late last month.
He got some more valuable match practice to open the Sandown card and, in spite of a last-flight blunder, still had more than six lengths to spare over a well-regarded Henderson newcomer who received 5lb.
Gary never shirks a challenge and will probably still target Authorised Speed at Cheltenham, as he will Hansard. The latter, a most impressive debut winner at Huntingdon yesterday in a hot novice hurdle on his first run since being bought for £48k out of Charles O’Brien’s yard after winning a Ballinrobe bumper, has obvious potential for a constantly upwardly mobile operation.
We mentioned last week the similarity between the conundrum Henderson was placed in the future campaigning of his two smart novice hurdlers from last season and that six years previously when Altior and future dual Champion Hurdle winner Buveur D’Air needed separating. Again there was a JP issue when Constitution Hill and Jonbon went to Cheltenham last year with mixed opinions in the yard as to which was the better. In the event, it was a no contest, Constitution Hill coming out on top by 22 lengths but with Jonbon second.
Perhaps surprisingly, that was still good enough to beat a trio of Willie Mullins challengers including the 2021 Festival bumper runner-up Kilcruit, third, and Bring On The Night fourth. Mullins might have had one in the first two though as Dysart Dynamo was going easily when falling three from home.
Henderson decided to go post-Cheltenham to Aintree with Jonbon, a mission he accomplished with a hard-fought victory, but there has been nothing hard-fought about his first two chase runs at Warwick and now Sandown on Saturday. In winning by eight lengths from Boothill, he was beating one of the beneficiaries of the Great Ascot Disappearing Act.
Harry Fry’s seven-year-old had been the recipient of the £65k first prize in the Hurst Park Handicap Chase, the race intended for Edwardstone.
Now that Aintree has separated its two previously joined at the hip big autumn handicaps over the Grand National fences, both the Grand Sefton, at the original date, and turn-of-the-month Becher Chase have attracted big fields.
Saturday’s version provided a big long-distance double in valuable handicap chases on successive weekends for the Skeltons. Their Ashtown Lad finally brought all his promise over several seasons to fruition in the style of a horse that could one day go well in a Grand National.
The success followed last week’s Coral Gold Cup win at Newbury for Le Milos, both horses getting exceptional rides from Harry Skelton, happy to have won a jockeys’ championship but happier still that all his energies can be put to the family business.
You could expect both horses to be among the entries for the 2023 Grand National, but I fear those two and pretty much everything else will have to work hard to get past the present incumbent Noble Yeats. He had a nice sideways look at some of the obstacles he encountered last April when he scooted round three miles, one furlong of the Mildmay Course on Saturday in the Many Clouds Chase, a £45k Grade 2 contest.
In the old days the perceived wisdom was that once horses win the Grand National, not only do they lose their speed, but they also find the hike in their ratings prohibitive. In out-speeding such smart performers as Dashel Drasher and Ahoy Senor in the last quarter mile on terms akin to their respective handicap ratings, Noble Yeats is clearly still improving – and fast! The Emmet Mullins-trained and Robert Waley-Cohen-owned seven-year-old could run up a sequence in the great race to challenge the memory of Red Rum and Tiger Roll.
Noble Yeats was the youngest winner of the race for more than 80 years. He is the first seven-year-old to have been successful since Bogskar in 1940. He was rated 147 going into the National this year and that had risen to 160 before Saturday. It looks sure to be set for another small increase, but weight may be less crucial than handling the fences at Aintree.
The two greatest Grand National exponents of my lifetime both began their careers in the race as eight-year-olds, which gave them plenty of time for multiple challenges and successive wins.
After all that I need to return briefly to one of the few races on infamous Ascot Saturday that wasn’t significantly affected by non-runners. That was the fillies’ hurdle race when many thought Coquelicot might have been flattered because basically Rex Dingle rode the pants off his rivals, getting a lead they couldn’t peg back.
Therefore, when she turned up again for another very strong mares’ race at Sandown on Saturday, they all knew what was coming – if they didn’t, they needed locking up! With Aidan Coleman taking over, ‘Cookie’ again made all the running, this time with some classy females snapping at her heels for the last mile. I told the owner/editor two weeks ago that Ascot was merely the start, rather than the end of her success story.
(Also, for the class of race, the £8k and not a lot more to the winner, looked meagre in the extreme for 0-130 animals. But the sporting owners that make up this fun syndicate operation put Saturday winners a long way over expensive dinners!). Don’t worry boys and girls, there will be other big days from this lovable mare!
TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Edwardstone_TingleCreek_2022.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2022-12-04 22:37:192022-12-04 22:37:19Monday Musings: Vindication for the Absentee Triumvirate
In this, my second National Hunt trainer piece, I am going to focus on Dan Skelton. I will be digging through nearly ten years of UK racing data from 1st January 2013 to 31st October 2022. The vast majority of the stats I share can be sourced by members using the Geegeez Query Tool. All profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price, but I will quote Betfair SP data when appropriate.
Dan Skelton Brief Bio
Dan Skelton is the son of show jumping legend Nick Skelton and started training in 2013 having previously been assistant to Paul Nicholls. It is very much a family business and younger brother Harry is the stable jockey. Skelton has saddled at least 150 wins in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2021, Covid intervening in 2020.
Dan Skelton Overall Record
Below is some further detail around the yard's win record by year:
There's a consistent strike rate year in year out. 2020 was a little below par but with Covid hitting that year several stables had a slight dip in fortunes. Here is a graphical look at the win and placed (EW) yearly strike rates:
His overall win strike rate over the 10-year period stands at 18.8%; the each way SR at 40.2%. Breaking down into five-year batches really demonstrates Skelton's consistency:
In terms of profits / losses, overall figures stand at 23% losses to Industry SP which improves to just under 12% to BSP. This suggests that he has not had many big priced winners that can help to skew such stats. We’ll see if that is case a bit later when we delve into market factors.
At this juncture it is worth mentioning he rarely send runners across the Irish Sea, just 12 having made the journey in 10 years; and only one has won.
It's time now to dig a bit deeper with race distance first on the agenda.
His figures are remarkably even across the board in terms of strike rate, while losses are slightly greater at races of 2m1f or less. All in all there seems to be no real distance bias in play here.
Dan Skelton Performance in NH Race types
Onto race types now and here are the splits:
As a general rule, National Hunt flat races, or bumpers as they are known, seem to be an area to avoid, with a relatively modest strike rate by Skelton's standards of 15.4% and losses hitting just over 38p in the £. However, here are four additional NH flat race stats for Skelton which may surprise as three are positive:
Market position seems key – favourites and second favourites have combined to win 59 races from 186 runners (SR 31.7%) for a loss of £5.76 (ROI -3.1%). BSP returns nudge into the positive returning just over a 6% profit (6p in the £);
Horses third or bigger in the betting have won just 14 races from 314 (SR 5.7%) for steep losses to SP of £185.80 (ROI -59.2%). ROI to BSP is still poor standing at just under -54%;
Despite his overall record in bumpers being quite modest, horses aged six or older actually have an excellent record in these races. 22 wins from 67 (SR 32.8%) for a profit of £21.95 (ROI +32.8%). BSP profits stand at +£30.47 (ROI 45.5%);
This stat has some links with the previous one – bumper horses that had previously had at least three career runs have produced 15 wins from 53 (SR 28.3%) for a profit to SP of £4.00 (ROI +7.6%); to BSP this becomes a profit of £9.53 (ROI +18.0%).
This is a good example of why it is important to drill down into general stats in more detail as you may find positives (or indeed negatives) you were not expecting.
Dan Skelton Performance in Chases (excluding hunter chases)
Onto chases now. Overall, Dan has a strike rate of one win in every five races, which is a decent starting point. Let's split them by handicap and non-handicap chase to see what we get:
Skelton has many more runners in handicap chases, but his non-handicap chase figures are very good indeed. To have an A/E index of 1.00 across 350 races is impressive and losses to SP have been minimal. To BSP profits stand at £24.73 which equates to returns of 7p in the £.
Sticking with non-handicap chases if we break the results down by distance we see a clear pattern:
The stable has enjoyed excellent results at shorter distances but, as the race distances increase, we see a notable drop off in performance. There is also a difference when we analyse class of race in non-handicap chases as the table below shows:
That's a huge differential in terms of strike rate, profit/loss, A/E indices and Impact Values. Top class non-handicap chases (class 1 and 2) are perhaps generally best avoided when it comes to Skelton entries: they look under-priced and over-bet.
It is also worth looking at the performance by age in these non-handicap chases as again we see a clear pattern:
Skelton horses aged 4 to 6 in non-handicap chases score roughly twice as often when compared to horses aged 7 or older. These younger horses have also been highly profitable, returning 37p in the £ to Industry SP and 49p in the £ to BSP.
Some final stats I want to share in terms of non-handicap chases are connected with number of previous chase runs. Horses having their first ever UK run in a chase have won 29 races from 86 (SR 33.7%) for an SP profit of £24.61 (ROI +28.6%); BSP profit stands at £37.20 (ROI +43.3%). Horses having their second ever UK run in a chase have won 26 from 69 (SR 37.7%) for an SP profit of £7.86 (ROI +11.4%); BSP profit stands at £14.75 (ROI +21.4%).
Dan Skelton Performance in Hurdle Races
A quick delve into hurdle races now – firstly handicap versus non-handicap results:
There has been a better strike rate in non-handicap hurdles as you would expect. Losses to SP are similar – to BSP non-handicap losses stand at around 17% and handicap ones at 8%. BSP figures in handicap races have been skewed a little by a few decent priced winners.
It is not easy to find profitable angles hurdles wise for Skelton. However, one snippet which has proved profitable is his record with older hurdlers. Hurdlers aged 9 or older actually have a good record: they have won 40 races from 228 runs (SR 17.5%) for an SP profit of £18.21 (ROI +8.0%); to BSP this improves to £65.62 (ROI +28.8%). If you stuck to handicap hurdles only this improves SP profits to +£35.88 (ROI +17.9%); BSP becomes +£82.96 (ROI +41.3%).
Dan Skelton Performance by Starting Price
Let’s examine starting price now using Industry SP prices. Firstly win strike rates:
The win strike rates go down uniformly as the price bands increase, which is of course what we would expect. Let's compare A/E values now:
It seems that there has been better value at the front end of the market (11/4 or shorter), which is again the general expectation. Indeed, horses priced between evens and 11/4 would have broken even if betting at BSP. Outsiders seem to have struggled: horses priced 14/1 or bigger would have produced enormous losses to SP of 61p in the £; at BSP this improved slightly but would still have lost you over 40p in every £ bet. The message is clear – avoid horses priced 14/1 or bigger. Focus on horses that are no bigger than 12/1.
Dan Skelton Performance by Course
I am now going to look at all courses where Skelton has had at least 100 runners and break the data down into different subsets. Firstly I am going to look at win strike rate and A/E indices across all races, hurdle races and chases (again exc. hunter chases). With a ‘par’ A/E index for all trainers at around 0.87, I have highlighted A/E indices of 0.95 or higher (in green) as a positive. A/E indices of 0.79 or lower (in red) are a negative:
In general we can see that the majority of individual courses correlate well across the two main race types. Skelton has poor records across the board at Cheltenham, Haydock, Newbury, Newton Abbot and Sandown. On the flip side his performances at Ascot, Market Rasen, Uttoxeter and Wetherby have been good – at all four courses you would have made a blind profit to Betfair prices.
He has contrasting stats at Doncaster, Fontwell, Kempton and Southwell – at all four courses he has solid records in chases but relatively poor performance in hurdle races.
Now a look at the same courses comparing handicap with non-handicap results using the same colour coding as before:
Interestingly, fewer than half the courses have good correlation between their handicap and non-handicap stats. This helps to illustrate why it is good to break down course stats if the sample sizes are big enough.
Here are five of the strongest positive Skelton course statistics I found:
In non-handicap chases at Uttoxeter, Skelton has saddled 10 winners from 21 (SR 47.6%) for an SP profit of £16.44 (ROI + 78.3%);
In non-handicap hurdles at Wetherby, sticking to horses priced 6/1 or shorter his record reads an impressive 33 wins from 65 (SR 50.8%). SP profits stand at £32.39 giving returns just shy of 50p in the £;
Favourites at Leicester have won 13 of their 22 races for a profit to £1 level stakes of £6.57 (ROI +29.9%);
At Fontwell horses racing in chases priced at 6/1 or shorter have secured am impressive strike rate of 44.1% thanks to 15 wins from just 34 runners. Profits to SP stand at £13.40 (ROI +39.4%);
At Warwick horses racing in chases priced at 6/1 or shorter have won 29 of 67 (SR 43.3%) for a profit of £26.68 (ROI +39.8%).
Those are good profits to Industry SP across the board and, clearly, using BSP would have improved all of these profits by a few shekels.
Dan Skelton Performance by Running Style
A look at running style next. To begin with let us see the proportion of runners that fit a specific running style. Geegeez breaks these running styles into four:
Led – front runners; horse or horses that take an early lead; Prominent – horses that track the pace close behind the leader(s); Mid Division – horses that race mid pack; Held Up – horses that race at, or near the back of the field early.
Here are the splits for Skelton:
We can see the preferred running style for Skelton is clearly holding his horses up. It should be noted that hold up horses make up around 31-33%% of all National Hunt run styles but Dan's figure of 44.8% is almost 50% above that, which is quite remarkable.
Onto the win success rate of each running style now:
With just under 13% of all hold up horses winning, it begs the question why are so many runners from the yard held up? His front runners / early leaders have won one in every three races – this means a Skelton front runner has just over 2½ times more chance of winning a race than a Skelton hold up horse. Of course, some of the Skelton horses that are held up might simply not have the early pace to lay up closer to the pace, or may be working towards a handicap mark but, even so, these are powerful differences in performance.
I want to look at favourites now and compare their success rate in terms of run style:
We see exactly the same pattern here with favourites that get to the lead early having an excellent record. Prominent racers also score an impressive amount; however, horses that race mid-division or are held up early perform well below the norm. If you had backed Skelton favourites that ended up racing early in mid-division or at the back it would have cost you around 16p in the £ to SP. Front running favourites by contrast would have made a small profit, while prominent racing favs would have lost just 5p in the £.
Earlier in the article we saw that Skelton’s record in non-handicap chases (excluding hunter chases) is good. Let’s look at the percentage of runners in these chases that matched each specific run style:
There's quite an interesting difference here when you compare this pie with the ‘All Races’ run style data shared earlier. Far fewer horses have been held up in non-handicap chases compared with ‘All Races’, while over 30% of Skelton runners have been sent to the front early which is more than double the percentage for ‘All Races’. How curious that the stable's non-handicap chase results have been by far their best when comparing them to other race types! Could this better showing be anything to do with run style factors?!
Dan Skelton Performance by Jockey
Onto some jockey analysis now and, specifically, a look at any jockey who has ridden at least 50 times for Skelton since 2013, with the proviso that they have had at least one ride for the stable in 2022. I have ordered them by number of rides starting with the most:
Stable jockey Harry Skelton rides roughly 80% of all the horses from the yard. He also has by far the best record. Indeed if you combine ALL of the other jockeys who have ridden for Dan Skelton since 2013, between them they have scored 216 times from 1745 rides – this equates to win SR% of 12.1% vs Harry's 21.7%.
Backing all Harry Skelton mounts using BSP would have lost you only 2p in the £. That's highly impressive considering he has had more than 4100 rides! Strangely, though, there are no easy ways to profit from the Skelton / Skelton combo despite this excellent BSP starting point. One ‘positive’ worth mentioning is that you would have roughly broken even to BSP if sticking to horses that were 12/1 or shorter (Industry SP) or 20.0 or shorter BSP.
Harry Skelton has similar records in chases and hurdle races but he has been less successful in National Hunt Flat races as the table below shows:
Losses of over 36p in the £ in National Hunt Flat races are steep. The main reason for this is the fact that bigger priced horses have had a dreadful time in these races – something touched upon earlier when looking at all NHF races:
As can be seen, Harry has ridden just one winner for brother Dan in bumpers sent off 8/1 or bigger, from 114 starters.
Finally while looking at jockey Harry Skelton, he rides front runners well, scoring nearly 37% of the time on them (overall figure for the stable was 33% - see earlier graph). Indeed, he seems to ride Uttoxeter extremely well from the front winning 22 times from just 38 rides (SR 57.9%).
Dan Skelton: Extra stats and nuggets
With the main body of the article complete let me share some extra stats / nuggets that may be of interest:
His longest losing run over the ten seasons stands at 38. He has had 38 losers in a row on two separate occasions
His least successful day was on Boxing Day 2019. He sent out 17 runners and his best finishing position was 4th
He has saddled back to back winners (e.g. one horse winning and then his next runner winning also) on 209 separate occasions
His most successful day was on 24th April 2019 when he saddled 6 winners from 9 runners on the day
I mentioned in the last article that there are punters around who occasionally back their favourite trainer or favourite jockey and put the selections in doubles, trebles etc. So what have happened if you had backed all Dan Skelton’s runners in trebles on the days when he had exactly three runners? Well, he has had exactly three runners running on the same day 301 times; the treble would have been landed five times. However, due to the fact that most prices were very short, if you had placed a £1 win treble on all 301 days you would have lost a staggering £259.33 (ROI -86.2%). Ouch!
Just over 450 horses have run at least five times for Skelton– of these horses 77% of them have won at least one race
Dan Skelton – Main Takeaways
Skelton has been very consistent year in year out with strike rates ranging between 16 and 21%
In National Hunt Flat races generally look for shorter priced runners or horses aged 6 or older
Skelton has a good record in non-handicap chases (excluding hunter chases), especially in Class 3 or lower or with horses aged 6 and younger. Also the shorter distance the better
Horses having their first or second career chase run have positive records in non-handicap chases
Hurdlers aged 9 or older have made a profit; these profits have been particularly good when sticking to handicap hurdles only
Horses priced 14/1 or bigger (Industry SP) have a very poor record across all race types
Uttoxeter and Wetherby are two tracks where Skelton runners generally perform well. At Uttoxeter this is especially true in non-handicap chases, at Wetherby in non-handicap hurdle races
Nearly 45% of all Skelton runners take a position near the back of the field early in the race, of which less than 13% of them go onto win. Front runners fare well generally, especially in non-handicap chases
Harry Skelton takes the vast majority of the rides and scores over 21% of the time. All other jockeys combined have scored just 12% of the time
That's plenty of Dan Skelton stats to get your teeth into, both positive and negative. Skelton sends out a good number of runners each week so hopefully this will give us plenty of potential betting opportunities in the coming weeks and months.
Good luck!
- Dave R
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Skeltons.jpg300830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2022-11-29 12:46:562022-12-07 09:52:03Trainer Profiles: Dan Skelton
The minute the decision was made to pull Constitution Hill out of a probable exhibition round that was going to double as his return to action at Ascot last weekend, you knew Nicky Henderson would merely shrug his shoulders and switch him to Newcastle, writes Tony Stafford.
What about 2020 Champion Hurdle heroine Epatante, long since pencilled in for a third consecutive challenge after one and a half wins (she shared the 2021 Fighting Fifth Hurd1e with Not So Sleepy)? Tough, she can run too, he reasoned. As I said here last week, he has plenty of previous.
The net effect: J P McManus, instead of collecting the owner’s share of £64,710, cedes that to Michael Buckley and gets instead £24,380. Lady Blyth, whose Not So Sleepy finished well to get within two and a half lengths of Epatante on ground faster than ideal, collected half of what would have been the case. Then again, J P has become used to that sort of thing over the years.
While Nicky looked on from Newbury, animatedly showing the cameras a real anxiety at the outcome, Buckers made the journey and shared in the wonder of it all with the viewers. Meanwhile, back at Newbury, Hendo was resplendent in the Cossack-style hat he had bought at the Peter O’Sullevan lunch on Thursday, a midwinter accoutrement for the master commentator, a man rightly still revered seven years after his death at the age of 97.
That generous gesture would have given Nicky some brownie points. J P is a leading light in the annual organisation of the charity event in memory of his late, great friend, which has provided so much welcome help to good causes, never needed more than in today’s straightened times.
For Henderson, the sight of Constitution Hill effortlessly drawing away from his older, female stable companion to the tune of 12 lengths must have been received with a mixture of pride and not inconsiderable relief. It may also mean that the three-year stranglehold on the top spot in hurdling by mares is about to end.
The trainer’s percentage remained whatever it is now of the £89k for Newcastle, on top of his automatic share in another £92k over two days at Newbury principally. On Friday J P McManus’ Champ – perhaps just as well – held off the fabulous finish of old adversary Paisley Park in the Coral Long Distance Hurdle, a win augmented by impressive novice winner Jet Powered earlier.
On Saturday, smart bumper performer Luccia stepped up in a very competitive fillies’ novice hurdle with a flawless performance on debut, almost in the Constitution Hill class, and First Street also impressed in the graduation hurdle against high class opposition. To complete the borderline obscenely successful weekend, Touchy Feely was an appropriate winner for Seven Barrows at Doncaster.
I have two post-scripts to the “do”. Ben Pauling was hard to reach on Friday morning, and when, finally he was contactable, he explained how tired he had been, understandable in view of the fact he got home from lunch at 1 a.m., replicating the sort of irresponsible behaviour that many used to exhibit at the annual Horserace Writers’ Awards lunch in London.
That pre-Christmas staple goes on at Lancaster Gate next Monday and I have received a welcome and most unexpected invitation. I promise I will make it home before midnight. (The following Monday we have family tickets for Cinderella. I better get into practice!)
The other amusing incident concerned a random meeting in the gents, mid-lunch between Henderson and Not So Sleepy’s trainer, Hughie Morrison. Hughie relates: “He wasn’t interested how Sleepy would run, just whether we would knock over one or other of his horses at the start or at the first hurdle.
“He asked, “which way does he hang?”, to which I replied: “Wherever the other horse happens to be!” That hardly placated him but, obviously, on the day he was as good as he ever has been and ran a blinder. Then again, going into last year’s Champion Hurdle, Sleepy was the highest-rated UK hurdler and his latest Cesarewitch run shows how unwise it is ever to under-estimate him.”
Top male hurdlers do not have an alternative championship race at the Cheltenham Festival, so trainers not keen to take on the now 4-7 shot Constitution Hill in the Champion, must either grin and bear it or wait for the 2m5f Aintree Hurdle. The mares have a couple of options at Cheltenham, and it would not be a shock if Epatante looked elsewhere after this summary lesson from her younger colleague.
What intrigues me more is the Honeysuckle situation that confronts Henry De Bromhead. His mare is on 16 wins unbeaten with two Champion Hurdles on the board. Does she carry on regardless and try for the hat-trick in the knowledge that her toughest challenge and most talented rival awaits? Or does she slip into a mares’ race to extend the unbeaten record?
You might almost wish her to have a hiccup in one of her prep races on the way. Such as being carried out at the start or first hurdle – don’t suggest Not So Sleepy! - so that it wouldn’t be numerically quite so vital. Then again there would be no shame or stud career implications in 16 and a couple more unbeaten and a second to Constitution Hill. If she did beat him – partisan Irish delirium and equine fame for as long as horses race over jumps awaits her. I hope they will meet next March for the Big Showdown on Prestbury Hill.
It's the big races that inevitably attract the most attention and are vital for the major stables that they collect their share of them. Over the past few years, the Dan Skelton stable has made a conscious decision to reduce its summer activity for a corresponding increase in concentration on the top end.
As the horses came to the closing stages of the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury on Saturday, Harry Skelton on his brother’s Le Milos was being vigorously pursued by two David Pipe-trained horses, Remastered and Gericault Rogue. Going to the last Gericault Rogue was seen to be tiring just as Remastered came on, seemingly about to atone for last season’s unlucky fall four from home when going like the probable winner.
Yet, hard as he strived, Le Milos found that little bit more to deny him. The £142,000 the horse brought his owners, the Jolly Good Partnership, tipped Skelton over the £1 million mark for the season, for the eighth time in succession. He has 54 wins to his credit.
That makes him the nearest to former boss Paul Nicholls, who had three victories over the Newbury weekend taking his tally to 70 and earnings of £1,161K. Most wins have been collected by Fergal O’Brien, nearer the old Skelton model with summer activity, but that alone cannot explain away 90 wins. It’s almost a rewind to the old Martin Pipe days.
Martin’s son has been doing extremely well this season already and despite missing the big one on Saturday, he’s now on a faster-than-recently 50 for the season. Had the Skelton horse departed at the last fence – not that anyone could have wished such an eventuality – Pipe would have been pushing £800k rather than £634k!
Nicky’s 35 wins so far have brought him neatly onto a shade over half a million and with the massive expectations of Constitution Hill, Luccia and novice chase prospect Jonbon, all set to clean up in their various categories barring mishap, he’ll be making up the ground rapidly from now on.
Henderson agreed that the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton would be the obvious step for Constitution Hill, and that was the next step for his 2008 winner of the Fighting Fifth, which was run at Wetherby as Newcastle was off games.
At that time Ian Turner, now racing manager for the McNeill family, was the man behind a sponsorship offering a £1 million bonus for a horse that won all three races culminating in the Champion Hurdle.
Punjabi won that Wetherby leg and by coincidence Turner was at the Yorkshire track last week to see his boss’s hurdles debutant Spartan Army (£170k, ex-Joseph O’Brien) win impressively for Alan King. He looks a natural for the Triumph Hurdle although Gary Moore’s Leicester winner, Perseus Way, looks smart too.
As to the £1 million, Punjabi fell at Kempton before winning the Champion Hurdle. That cost owner Ray Tooth, his trainer and the stable staff a chunk of money! Were they bothered? Not once Punjabi and Barry Geraghty claimed the Festival showpiece at 33/1 they weren’t!
Finally, while we’re talking in terms of millions, congratulations to Ryan Moore who early yesterday morning won his second Japan Cup at Tokyo racecourse. Riding 7-2 third favourite, Vela Azul, a five-year-old stallion, he won the £2,593,463.46 to the winner race for trainer Kunihiko Watanabe and owners Carrot Farm Co Ltd in daring fashion. After his wonderful Breeders’ Cup meeting earlier in the month, this makes 2022 a year to treasure for the former champion.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/ConstitutionHill_FightingFifth2022.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2022-11-28 09:02:202022-11-28 09:02:21Monday Musings: Of Champions – Past, Present and Future
"You get to go racing most days, and when you're not going racing, you're writing about going racing. Most blokes I know would swap with you in an instant."
Thus went a conversation with a friend whilst at Cheltenham recently. I'm not going to sit here and tell you that, on a gorgeous warm, sunny Monday evening by the Thames, drinking a beer whilst I peruse some lovely-looking 2yos in the paddock at Windsor, that what I do for a living doesn't have its advantages.
However, it isn't all sweetness and light, and the flip side of the coin that has a Monday Windsor as heads, is a Market Rasen Thursday in winter as tails.
Such a Thursday came to pass last week when I'm booked in to do paddock notes. A gander at the weather forecast the night before looks bleak; when the area you're working in can't been seen on the national map for the sea of blue on top of it, you know the waterproofs are needed.
Those, plus the woolly hat and boots, are packed as I set off through the driving rain Thursday morning. You'll be delighted to hear that Rasen is not three-and-a-half hours away from my house, but a mere ninety minutes. Once you're past the A46 bottleneck at Newark (the only place name in England that's an anagram of w****r - one to amuse your friends with down the pub) it's all plain sailing.
When I arrive in the grassy car park at Rasen, there's a brief second where, as I turn into my space, the car has a little sideways wobble. It's already getting very wet. Nevertheless, equipped in full rain gear, I'm ready to face the elements.
Better still, we're now told the rain will have passed over by 1pm, and then it'll brighten up. As they come out for the first at about ten past twelve, it doesn't feel like it's about to suddenly dry up; indeed it appears to be raining harder. I start to take notes.
One o'clock comes and goes, and the sky is as slate grey as when I arrived. This isn't drying up any time soon. Huge puddles are starting to appear in the parade ring and by the winners enclosure. By the time we get to race 3 we need an inspection to see if we can carry on, as there's standing water everywhere. The jockeys say it's fine and so the horses come out for the next.
The rain gets harder still. My notes are nothing but a soggy mush, unreadable. I can definitely feel damp patches under the waterproofs. I take refuge under a bookmaker's umbrella as another inspection is announced.
The rain is pouring off every roof you can see and it comes down harder still. A decision is taken that the horses won't now use the flooded parade ring and will go straight to the start, which makes my reason for actually being at the track, to look at them in the paddock, non-existent.
I don't care whether it's raceable or not, it's now clear we shouldn't be here. Everywhere is becoming flooded. I'm told to go home, but the exit itself is just a lake. "Go up the middle", the security guard tells me. I do, and my boot immediately goes underwater. By the time I get to the car I'm soaked, head to toe. I can actually wring my socks out. I have no choice but to get the lot off and drive home in a t-shirt and, thankfully, a pair of dry trainers that are in the boot more by luck than anything else.
Needless to say the car spins and skids its way out of the car park and by the time I get to Middle Rasen, the next village along, the road is barely passable. It takes me over two hours to get back. Steady as she goes, captain.
There has to come a point in a race meeting when it rains so heavily and for so long that what happens on the track is secondary. Customer safety must take priority, not just at the track but in the surrounding areas, too. I don't believe that happened here and I'm glad I went when I did. The meeting was abandoned about 15 minutes after I left, unsurprisingly, but for me it went on a race too long.
That's the worst thing that's befallen me since my last missive. In other, better news, I've worked at Southwell a couple of times, once actually to help host a box for the first time and once on a pitch. The box was a strange experience, as I've not done it before; but it went well and people seemed to enjoy themselves, despite the fact my tips, by and large, ran slower then treacle. Saying that, the nap won at 13-8, so some redemption.
However, the day I worked the pitch was unbelievable. I have no idea where they came from, but we had punters - good punters - having absolute chunks on. On my pitch alone I took the following: a £1000 bet Khabib in the second, a £1000 bet (and a £400) Western Beat in the fifth, and a £500 Dancinginthewoods in the next, all of which are beaten. In terms of turnover we take almost five times what we'd normally take, seemingly from a few just out to have a tilt at the ring without any great inside knowledge.
It's good to see a few of the Southwell regulars in attendance. We workmen have nicknames for a few of them: "price-pincher", for whom the price has "just gone" almost every time he has a bet, and he'll try and pinch the bigger price; "DFS", who has a jacket that looks like it was once part of a sofa; "Nemesis", named not after the Alton Towers rollercoaster but due to the fact he's almost unbeatable, usually coming in very late with his bet; the self-explanatory "ice-cream man", and a couple of lads we call "The Professionals". They're not, but they like to think they are.
The last port of call this week is Wetherby. It rains heavily on the morning of racing.
When the first thing you're asked by the car park attendant, on arrival is, "how good is your car at getting out of mud?", then you know it's been a close call getting the meeting on. Mud, glorious mud. It's literally everywhere and the heavy duty boots are out again. Sun's out now though, and there's a rainbow. All I need to do now is find the pot of gold at the end of it. I'll take four winners on a Yankee if that's not possible.
There's no pot of gold, barely even a sliver of silver as the afternoon progresses, and the only bright spot is the excellent piece of lemon drizzle from the coffee shop. Thankfully, the car gets out of the car park in one piece and the best decision I make is to go down the M1 rather than the A1 back home, as it turns out the latter is blocked. Seems I can back the winner of a two-horse race!
It's Newbury and the not-the-Hennessy this weekend for me, working for the MT firm in the ring. I'll let you know how that goes next time. In the meantime, I'm just setting the alarm for the 6am start. Remind me again how lucky I am...
- DM
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Eileendover_MarketRasen.jpg319830David Masseyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDavid Massey2022-11-25 09:18:302022-11-25 09:18:30Roving Reports: Lucky Man
In this, and subsequent articles I am picking up the baton from Matt and Jon who have both previously written excellent pieces digging into the profiles of certain trainers, writes Dave Renham. As we are heading into the winter months it makes sense to throw the spotlight on some National Hunt trainers for this latest series. The first trainer I am going to look at is one of Britain's winter luminaries, Paul Nicholls.
I will be analysing nearly ten years of UK racing data from 1st January 2013 to 31st October 2022, the majority of which can be sourced by members using the Geegeez Query Tool. All profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price. Of course, we should be able to significantly improve upon the baseline figures of SP using the exchanges or BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed), and I will share Betfair SP data when appropriate.
Paul Nicholls Brief Biography
Born in Gloucestershire on April 17th 1962, Paul Frank Nicholls was educated at Marlwood School. He didn’t carry on into further education because, upon leaving school aged 16, he started working in a point-to-point yard. By the age of 20 he was race riding for Josh Gifford out of Findon, West Sussex, and then, in 1985, he moved to David Barons. His biggest successes as a jockey were back to back wins in the Hennessy Gold Cup (1986 & ’87) and, in his seven year career, he rode a relatively modest 133 winners. However, it is as a trainer that he has really excelled. Nicholls first took out his licence in 1991 but his training career took off in 1999 when he bagged three wins at the Cheltenham Festival, including the Gold Cup with See More Business. He was crowned Champion trainer for the first time in 2005-06 and, since then, has repeated this feat an amazing dozen further times.
Paul Nicholls Overall Performance Record
Below is Paul Nicholls' win record by calendar year:
Every year during the decade or so in review, his win strike rate has exceeded 20% which is impressive. Also, both his win and each way figures are consistent; both can be seen on the graph below:
Nicholls' overall win strike rate across the 10-year period stands at 23%; the each way SR at 43.2%. Breaking down into five-year groups really demonstrates his consistency:
Not surprisingly, though, given the Ditcheat handler's high profile, profits are hard to come by; and if you had backed all 5693 runners you would have lost roughly 12p in the £ to Industry SP. However, this improves to just under a 3p loss in the £ using BSP - not the worst way to lose a few quid with a high strike rate!
At this juncture it is worth mentioning Nicholls does send the occasional runner over to Ireland, but these are extremely rare. Indeed, just 29 runners have crossed the Irish Sea since 2013 with five winning and a further eight getting placed. Backing all his Irish runners would have seen a steep loss of 40p in the £.
It's time to dig a bit deeper.
Paul Nicholls Performance by Race Distance
When Matt dug into the Nicky Henderson numbers we saw a definite preference for shorter distances. What about his great rival Nicholls?
The distance distinction is not as pronounced as with the Henderson data but Team Nicholls do also seem to perform slightly worse in staying races, both from a win and returns perspective. The each way figures correlate, too, with 3 mile+ runners placing just over 36% of the time compared to the other two distance groups which stand at 46.3% (2m1f or less) and 44.8% (2m2f to 2m6f).
Paul Nicholls Performance in 3 mile+ Races
I want to dig into these 3 mile+ races in more detail as I think it is equally important to share negative angles as positive ones; avoiding poor value bets will clearly help our bottom line in the long run.
When we split these longer races into handicap and non-handicap races we get some very interesting results:
One might expect some difference in the win strike rates in favour of non-handicaps, due to quality biases and field size, but it is the returns that stand out. In non-handicap staying races, blanket support would have nudged into BSP profit; whereas in handicap races, losses of 31.58% (SP) are steep and, even using BSP, this only improved to a loss of 23.5% (23.5p in the £).
Here are the splits for 3m+ handicap chases and handicap hurdles:
Here we see similar win percentages, Impact Values and Actual vs Expected (A/E) indices; handicap chases have lost a little less money, but I would suggest these races are generally worth avoiding, unless you have a good additional reason to get involved.
Paul Nicholls Performance in Handicaps at 2m6f or less
Having seen some relatively poor stats for staying handicaps, let me share some more positive data.
As can be seen, Nicholls has recorded much higher strike rates, A/E and IV indices and, in the case of handicap hurdles, the smallest of profits even at starting price. At BSP, however, those profits would be just above the £200 mark to £1 level stakes – this equates to excellent returns of 22p in the £.
Despite this positive performance in handicap hurdle races of 2m6f or less, it is interesting to see the varying win strike rates at different courses. Below are all courses where Nicholls has had at least 40 runners:
There is quite a range here: one might expect lower strike rates at Ascot and Cheltenham due to the competitive nature of the races and, generally, races at these courses have bigger fields. Despite the low win rate, however, Nicholls has made an SP profit at Cheltenham in this context.
I want to share Nicholls' Taunton data specifically, as it is impressive: 18 wins from 71 runners, with a further 22 placed. Taunton SP profits stand at £27.47 (ROI +38.7%). BSP profits would have been increased considerably to +£47.29 (ROI +49.3%).
Paul Nicholls Performance in Non-handicap races
We have already seen that Nicholls has performed well in non-handicap races of 3 miles or further. Here are his overall non-handicap stats across different race types (all distances):
There are not many hunter chase runners per year (average around 13), but that cohort has made a small profit. However, the profit is hugely skewed due to two big-priced Cheltenham winners at 16/1 and 25/1.
His non-handicap chase figures (excluding hunter chases) also look very solid. Below I have broken down this record by age of horse – and it reveals a clear pattern:
There is a definite drop off in success rate in non-handicap chases as the horses hit the age of 8. Horses aged 7 or younger actually made a 3% profit to BSP; those 8 or older would have lost nearly 19% to BSP.
Sticking with these non-handicap chases (excluding hunter chases) and splitting the performance by starting price gives us the following breakdown:
Clearly horses priced between evens and 9/2 have offered punters good value in the past. The figures in the table above are to Industry SP; using Betfair SP one would have roughly doubled those profits. We can see very good A/E indices, too. In contrast, once starting prices get to 5/1 or bigger, there have been quite significant losses.
Paul Nicholls Performance by Starting Price
We have seen some SP data already, but let us now look at all races as a whole:
The win strike rates go down uniformly as the price bands increase – nothing unusual there. Industry SP losses have been smallest with the shorter priced runners, but the Betfair SP returns on investment are probably more useful to see.
Using Betfair SP sees a much more even return on investment across the price bands (ranging from a high of +1.6% to a low of -7.6%). In contrast to the Industry SP figures, it actually looks more advantageous to focus on runners priced 5/1 or bigger.
Paul Nicholls Performance by Course
I shared a small amount of course data earlier, but I want to dig a little deeper. I am going to look at all courses where Nicholls has had at least 100 runners and break the data down into different subsets. Firstly I am going to look at win strike rate and A/E indices across all races, hurdle races, and chases (again excluding hunter chases). With a ‘par’ A/E index for all trainers at around 0.87, I have highlighted A/E indices of 0.95 or higher (in green) – these are essentially positive. A/E indices of 0.79 or lower (in red) are negative:
There is a good sprinkling of positive A/E indices with not many negative ones; strong overall stats emerge for Fontwell, Newbury and Taunton.
Meanwhile, Haydock fascinates me; here, Nicholls' chase figures are exceptional, showing a 31p in the £ profit to SP, but his hurdle figures at the same course are dire, with a very low strike rate and losses in excess of a bruising 62p in the £. There are some things you just cannot explain!
Now a look at the same courses comparing handicap with non-handicap results using the same colour coding as before:
This time there is a more even split of positive and negative A/E indices. Fontwell and Newbury once again stand out, while Haydock again has hugely conflicting figures – excellent non-handicap results, dreadful handicap ones.
I have dug still deeper at different courses to share with you five positive looking PFN track stats:
At Fontwell in non-handicap chases (excluding hunter chases) the stable has secured 22 wins from 36 (SR 61.1%) for a profit of £9.73 (ROI +27.0%). Using BSP would increase profits marginally to £11.64 (ROI +32.3%);
At Haydock in non-handicap chases (excluding hunter chases) horses that started first or second favourite have bagged 10 wins from 16 (SR 62.5%) for a profit of £14.06 (ROI +87.9%). A slight increase again if using BSP with profits up slightly to £15.44 (ROI +96.5%);
In non-handicap novice hurdles at Wincanton, Nicholls has seen 67 of his 133 runners win securing a strike rate of 50.4%. Backing all runners would have yielded an SP profit of £30.09 (ROI +22.6%); BSP profits stand at £38.38 (ROI +28.9%);
At Taunton if you backed all his runners in hurdle races at 2m1f or less you would have been rewarded with 38 wins from 107 (SR 35.5%) for an SP profit of £19.51 (ROI +18.2%); BSP profits would have been double, at £38.78 (ROI +36.2%);
In handicap hurdle races at Musselburgh, Nicholls has sent only 22 runners on the long trek to such events but nine have won with a further five placing. Returns of over 90p in the £ were achieved to SP; to BSP this increases to 108p in the £. When Harry Cobden has ridden, he has managed five wins and two places from just eight runs.
Paul Nicholls Performance by Horse Run Style
As regular readers of mine will know, running style data is something I believe can often be an important piece of the betting puzzle. To begin with let us see the proportion of runners that fit a specific running style. Geegeez breaks running styles into four:
Led – front runners; horse or horses that take an early lead;
Prominent – horses that track the pace close behind the leader(s);
Mid Division – horses that race mid pack;
Held Up – horses that race at, or near the back of the field early.
Here are the splits for Nicholls:
We can see the marked preference for a prominent running style, tracking the early pace. That approach has accounted for over 40% of all runners from the stable. The other three run styles are each around the 20% mark.
From here, let us review the win success rate of each running style:
This is a very familiar pattern, with horses that go to the front and lead early (L) winning a far bigger proportion of races compared to other run styles. Front runners from the Nicholls stable are edging towards winning 40% of the time. Prominent racers also do well, hitting around one win in every four races; but horses that raced mid-pack or to the rear have relatively poor records.
I want to look at favourites now to see their success rate in terms of run style:
We see exactly the same pattern here with early leading favourites having an excellent record. By contrast, if you had backed every Nicholls favourite that ended up racing early in mid-division or at the back, you would have lost a whopping 33p in the £ to SP.
We have seen already that 19.61% of runners from the stable lead when we look at all races as a whole; but this figure differs markedly depending on the race type as the table below shows:
It seems therefore that non-handicap chases are the race types where we are most likely to see a Nicholls horse front run: out of trouble. However, it should be noted that the figures are skewed somewhat as non-handicaps (both hurdle and chase) tend to have slightly smaller average field sizes when compared to handicaps. To mitigate for that, I have chosen an arbitrary field size band so that we can more easily compare ‘led’ percentages across race types. I've selected races of 6 to 8 runners only to see what happens:
So in races of 6 to 8 runners we can see that non-handicaps are still much more likely to see a Nicholls runner at the front of the pack early compared to handicaps. The gap has narrowed but it is still significant. Perhaps the most interesting finding here is that front runners in National Hunt Flat races have increased considerably in these relatively small fields. There were 81 qualifying NH Flat races and Nicholls runners led early in 30 of them. Of these, a good proportion (43.3%) went onto to win.
This is a good time to mention that statistics can be really useful and informative but, naturally, it is important to see the bigger picture as possible. Sometimes stats in isolation can be a little misleading and we need context as much as possible.
Paul Nicholls Performance by Jockey
Onto some jockey analysis now. The table below shows all jockeys to have ridden at least 50 times for Nicholls since 2013, with the proviso that they have had at least one ride for the stable in 2022. I have ordered them by number of rides starting with the most:
Stable jockey Harry Cobden has a very good record on favourites scoring nearly 46% of the time for a break even scenario to SP (profit of 4p in the £ to BSP). However, the stand out here is Bryony Frost – a strike rate of around one win in every four and a profit to boot. If betting every runner of hers at BSP the profits would have risen to £113.87 (ROI +26.8%).
She has done especially well in non-handicap chases thanks to 28 wins from 65 runners (SR 43.1%) for an SP profit of £55.11 (ROI +84.8%). At BSP these returns increase by a few pence to 92p in the £.
Here are three more Frost / Nicholls stats to be aware of:
Their combined record at Ascot, Cheltenham and Kempton is impressive considering the competitive nature of the races at these tracks:
When Frost has taken an early lead, she has won on over of 40% those runners. On hold up horses, though, she has won less than 10% of the time (SR 9.3%);
Frost has an excellent record on horses she has ridden before. 68 winners from 245 rides (SR 27.8%) for a profit to SP of £87.53 (ROI +35.7%); profit to BSP of £127.01 (ROI +51.8%).
Frost is back in the saddle after a lengthy spell on the side lines so hopefully she will continue her success for Nicholls during the remainder of this season and beyond.
Paul Nicholls – Extra stats and nuggets
With the main body of the article complete let me just share with you some extra stats or nuggets that may be of interest:
Nicholls' longest losing run over the ten seasons stands at 29. He has had 29 losers in a row on five separate occasions
He has saddled back to back winners (e.g. one horse winning and then his next runner winning also) on 340 separate occasions
There are punters around who occasionally back their favourite trainer or favourite jockey and put their selections in doubles, trebles etc. Hence I thought I would look at what would have happened if you had backed all Paul Nicholls runners in trebles on the days when he had exactly three runners. He has had exactly three runners running on the same day 212 times; the treble would have been landed seven times. However, due to the fact that most prices were quite short, if you had placed a £1 win treble on all 212 days you would have lost £96.59 (ROI -45.6%). Even worse would have occurred on days where he had exactly four runners – if you had backed all four runners in a win fourfold accumulator on each of those days, you would have landed a winning bet just once, losing a whopping £136.09 (ROI -76.9%). I am not saying punters cannot be successful with these types of bets, but the odds are generally stacked against us
Just over 400 horses have run at least five times for Nicholls – of these horses 85% of them have won at least one race
In handicaps the time to catch Nicholls runners is when they have had five or fewer previous runs in a handicap. This cohort has combined to win 291 of their 1624 races. Backing them at BSP would have secured a healthy profit of £243.35 (ROI +15.0%)
Paul Nicholls – Main Takeaways
Below is a summary of the key findings from my research above. It's a handy 'cut out and keep cheat sheet' for those who like such things.
Every year Nicholls has secured an overall win strike rate of over 20%
Distance wise, Nicholls has a relatively poor record in handicap races of 3 miles or more
Handicap hurdle races at 2m 6f or less have seen impressive returns to BSP of 22p in the £
In non-handicap chases (excluding hunter chases), horses aged 7 or younger have produced a small 3p in the £ profit to BSP
Several course stats have been highlighted; three of the strongest being in handicap hurdles at Musselburgh, non-handicap chases at Fontwell, and non-handicap novice hurdles at Wincanton
Over 40% of PFN runners take a prominent position early, of which just over 25% go onto win. His best run style performance comes with front runners / early leaders: they have won 38.5% of their races
Bryony Frost has a good overall record and she has excelled in non-handicap chases
Look for horses in handicaps who have previously had five or fewer handicap runs
Paul Nicholls is an incredibly successful trainer and this article has unlocked a few angles that have proved to be positive in the past. Hopefully they will continue that way for at least some time in the future, too! Also there some negatives that we need to be aware of.
I hope you have enjoyed this piece and I’ll be back next week with a drill down into the stats of another National Hunt trainer, Mr Daniel Skelton.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Frodon_BadgerBeer.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2022-11-22 09:30:272022-12-07 09:52:17Trainer Profiles: Paul Nicholls
You can take a horse to Ascot, but you can’t make him run, writes Tony Stafford. This November 2022 re-working of the old proverb, where opportunities are spurned by those to whom they are presented, fitted nicely into events at that most wonderful of British racecourses last weekend.
Top hats and fashion in high summer or Barbour jackets and a hot toddy as winter takes hold, are all the same to the British public, enticed by Ascot’s Royal-ness but equally by the imaginative marketing of its executive.
Often admission prices are moderated even if that doesn’t hold for the catering. I wasn’t there on Saturday and while some of the 14 equine absentees from the seven races, leaving a total to run of 30, will have gone to the track, their trainers for the most part will have made the decision not to allow valuable animals to run on ground faster than had been anticipated.
The magnet was the £615k total money on offer. The advertised amount beforehand might well have been more, but for some time now where there are fewer runners than available prizes – or indeed if non-finishers result in that happening – the old way of bumping up the winner’s prize no longer applies.
In any case, 615 grand was a fair enticement and even such as Michael Buckley, owner of the one horse everyone wanted to see on Saturday, would have liked to have picked up the £56,000 Coral Hurdle for an exhibition round by Constitution Hill.
Not so Nicky Henderson, trainer of the horse that, in three runs culminating in that scintillating 22-length demolition of stablemate Jonbon in the Supreme Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham in March, has even supplanted the unbeaten and present dual title-holder Honeysuckle in Champion Hurdle betting.
Henderson resisted the temptation of sending him on to Aintree last spring for the near guarantee of another big pot, but in hindsight, maybe the experience of connections of two more of Saturday’s elite absentees fully vindicated his decision.
Both Edwardstone, due to run in the 2m1f Hurst Park Handicap Chase (£65k to the winner) and L’Homme Presse, one of three pulled out of the Chanelle Pharma 1965 Chase, 39k; like Constitution Hill, were novice winners at the Festival.
L’Homme Presse won the Brown Advisory Chase over just a shade beyond three miles on the fifth start of a hitherto unbeaten season. Edwardstone’s coincidental fifth unbeaten run of 2021-2 came in the Arkle Challenge Trophy at the minimum trip that week.
Both, unlike the Henderson star, did go on to Aintree in April and each lost his winning sequence, Edwardstone only second to the Irish-trained Gentleman De Mee and L’Homme Presse finishing a well-beaten third of four behind Ahoy Senor.
The pair collected a few bob in defeat and brought the duo’s earnings for the season respectively to £245k (Edwardstone) and £225k for Venetia Williams’ horse. That little bit of money in the bank helped no doubt in Alan King’s and Ms Williams’ pitch to the owners that the wisest course on Saturday was to stand aside.
So far Constitution Hill has barely scratched the surface of the riches in store, those three victories amounting to £125k. But Buckley has seen it all before while Henderson still agonises about the time he allowed Altior to run in a three-horse race but a virtual match at Ascot over 2m4f. He believes adamantly that not only did it ruin Altior, but also his one serious opponent Cyrname and still regrets that he was persuaded in part by the clamour within the media for the race to be staged.
He will now need to shuffle his pack to bring the pre-Champion Hurdle lead-up for this horse, and previous winner Epatante, up to date. J P McManus’ mare has had the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle on Saturday pencilled in for her return to action, as it has for the past two years.
She won it easily in 2020 but last year had to accept a share of the prize with Hughie Morrison’s versatile toughie Not So Sleepy. With options at the top level rather limited, who is to say that the Henderson big two might not take each other on? It wouldn’t be the first time the trainer has done that.
Indeed, he allowed Constitution Hill and McManus’ Jonbon to meet, just as six years earlier Altior and J P’s Buveur D’Air crossed swords in the same Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Altior came out comfortably on top then with his team-mate in third. Henderson was adamant after the race that he would send Altior straight over fences which he did the following autumn with extravagant success. Buveur D’Air meanwhile remained over hurdles and won the Champion Hurdle in each of the next two seasons. Obviously, the best hurdler of his era was wasting his time winning his first 14 steeplechases!
The Cyrname defeat was followed with one more win, but two further defeats suggested not only was Henderson right about Altior’s being bottomed that day at Ascot, but also that it couldn’t be justified running on Saturday as the over-efficient Ascot drainage system allied to the very low water table after the summer drought, makes for rapid changes in surfaces after rain and then dry spells.
One man’s meat – it’s ages since I used or even thought of a proverb; how about a fool and his money, etc, says Mrs S? – is another man’s opportunity. Gary Moore, king of opportunism in racing, got an unexpected dividend with stable favourite Goshen.
It was entirely in character that this man, who along with Alan King can win any type of race any time of year – there are others who we should mention, of course, in the cause of wokeness – should not balk at opposing the putative champ, even if his horse had a reputation to repair.
Clearly not enjoying his first experience of chasing last month even though it was at Ascot, his favourite track, there had to have been a chance that being smashed up by Constitution Hill would leave the sort of scar in Goshen that Henderson feared for his horse.
In the event he was left with only the three to beat in the Coral Hurdle, and you would never have thought he had been away. As to Gary Moore, he also won the main back-up race to the Betfair Chase at Haydock with the ultra-tough Botox Has. I can’t wait to see this powerful six-year-old try chases, which must surely be on the agenda in the future.
Amid all the riches on offer for the remaining Ascot 30, the 0-130 handicap hurdle for mares was worth a derisory £6,753 to the winner. But that apart, I know, it was the happy culmination of five years’ expectation and some disappointments along the road for the proprietor of this website who also happens to be the man who finds most of my many errors each week.
Coquelicot runs in the colours of Geegeez.co.uk PA, and she was winning her fifth race in 14 under a fine ride by Rex Dingle. Matt Bisogno’s sponsorship of the jockey and support for the mare’s trainer Anthony Honeyball has been as constant as the many years I’ve been penning these words.
Matt related from the winner’s circle afterwards that Saturday provided the thrill of his racing life and he sent the photo of a proud younger-looking editor holding the Soldier Of Fortune filly’s bridle right after he bought her five years ago today (Monday) for €26k at Arqana’s Autumn Mixed sale. I hope he puts it atop this week’s posting.
Coquelicot, bought as a yearling at Arqana, November 21st 2017
Coquelicot and Rex Dingle win the Mariner System Mares' Handicap Hurdle in the geegeez colours at Ascot. 19/11/2022 Pic Steve Davies/Racingfotos.com
A half-sister to Melbourne Cup second and, before that, Ebor winner Hearbreak City, she has a future as a broodmare awaiting her, but plenty of winning to be done in the meantime. Matt has had lots of winners with his syndicates, but never a day like Saturday. As he says: “Didn’t those big horses run? I hadn’t noticed!” Not really folks!
The big races will be coming on apace now and on the same day as the Fighting Fifth, Newbury’s highlight is the newly-designated Coral (recently Ladbroke, same firm) Gold Cup Chase – but still, to oldies like me, the Hennessy which it was until 2017. Sam Thomas is a trainer I rate very highly, and he couples a sure touch with his plans to a degree of patience.
In former times when analysing the race, I always started with the second-season chasers, and in particular the seven-year-olds and it was scary how big a proportion of winners at the time did fit that profile.
Protektorat, whose skilled handling by the Skeltons brought a wonderful win in the Betfair Chase, by 11 lengths from Eldorado Allen, is that age, but I doubt Dan will want to send him back out even for the chance of £142k. Now there are much bigger fish to fry and maybe at last we have a proper chaser after the time of Kauto Star and Denman to see off the Irish next March.
Sam Thomas was on Denman when he won the 2007 Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup as a seven-year-old and rode him into third two years later. Ruby Walsh got on him for the second win in between. Now as a trainer, down on 10st5lb and a rating of 141 he has Our Power, a comfortable winner at Ascot three weeks ago on his return, from the useful Danny Kirwan.
Victory for him would be a tonic for Sam’s main supporter and Our Power’s part-owner, Dai Walters, who was badly injured recently in a helicopter crash when Thomas was also a passenger. It all has a ring to it. This is one horse that will go to the races and happily stop to drink in the glory.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/royalascot2017_gates.jpg320830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2022-11-21 09:05:162022-11-21 09:05:17Monday Musings: You Can’t Make ’em Drink
It’s time to head to the Midlands for the final article in this all-weather series, writes Dave Renham, the course in focus being Wolverhampton racecourse. I will be using racing data from 1st January 2017 to 31st August 2022 which has been once again been taken from the Geegeez Query Tool. Therefore all profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price. We all know that we should be able to significantly improve upon the baseline figures of SP and I will share Betfair SP data if appropriate.
I have written about Wolverhampton before in regards to running style, so I will be sharing the new data from the past 11 months as well as comparing with the long term figures. I have not analysed the draw in any real depth before so we will start off by looking at the long term data (2017 onwards) and take it from there. For both sections, running style and the draw, my focus will be handicaps of eight or more runners only. This is in line with previous research in those areas, except for Southwell where I used seven runners-plus due to the small time frame examined.
Wolverhampton races take place on a tapeta surface; this was changed in 2014, before which they had used polytrack. Let’s start to dig...
Running Style at Wolverhampton
Wolverhampton 5f Run Style Bias
First a look at the minimum trip of 5f. Here are the run style splits in 8+ runner handicaps covering the time since my last article (1st Oct ’21 to 31st Aug ’22):
In the past 11 months, front runners have triumphed in 13 of the 37 races which equates to 35% of all qualifying races. N.B. In some races, two horses have challenged for the early lead hence the 25.49% figure in the graph.
The A/E* indices for this recent time frame correlate positively (see below):
*A/E, or Actual vs Expected, is a measure of the profitability of an angle based on starting prices. Further details on A/E, PRB and all our metrics can be found here.
Going back to 2017 and taking the last six years as a whole (up to 31/8/22), front runners / early leaders have won just over 20% of the races (A/E 1.48). Meanwhile prominent racers have won around 12% races (A/E 0.91), so the long term figures suggest the front running bias is strong, and the recent data backs that up. Essentially, if your horse races midfield or near the back early, it is at quite a disadvantage.
Now, I rarely look at non-handicap data but if we look at the non-handicap 5f run style results since 2017 we get a very similar picture:
Arguably the bias is even more potent in non-handicaps, where there is likely an ability bias: those at the back will often not have the talent to get to the front! However, what we can say is that 5f races offer a strong front running bias in all races, not just handicaps. Backing all front runners in handicaps would have yielded a huge 70p in the £ return over the past six seasons, had the crystal ball been fully functional!
Wolverhampton 6f Run Style Bias
Onto 6f now and the run style splits from 1/10/21 to 31/8/22. There have been 56 races in this short amount of time so a decent sample:
There clearly has been a bias to horses that lead early or race prominently over six furlongs. The long term stats (back to 2017) correlate with this recent data, although the figures are not quite as strong, with front runners winning 14% and prominent racers 12% (mid div 8%, held up 7%).
Of course, we know predicting the front runner in a race is far from an exact science, but let us assume you were clairvoyant and had predicted all front runners since 2017 in 6f handicaps (8+ runners); in that notional case, there would have been a profit to SP of £117.80 for £1 level stakes which equates to returns of just over 22p in the £. Amazingly, backing all prominent racers would also have secured a profit.
Over 6f in handicaps therefore, a prominent pitch / early leading position is ideal, all other things being equal.
Wolverhampton 7f Run Style Bias
Onto the recent 7f handicap figures:
There is quite an even split here with three of the run styles, though hold up horses remain at a clear disadvantage. I think it is worth comparing these run style percentages with those from 1/1/17 to 30/9/21 to check on the correlation:
Essentially the correlation is positive: hold up horses have definitely had a tough time of it, although the long term stats suggest their chances are better than the most recent data indicated. Overall at this 7f trip I would probably look to avoid genuine hold up horses.
Wolverhampton 1 mile+ Run Style Bias
Once we get to longer distances a prominent run style seems to be very slightly favoured, but essentially I would not advocate using run style analysis in these races.
The Draw at Wolverhampton
All races are run on the round course, with the 7f distance starting from a chute:
Wolverhampton 5f Draw Bias
A look at the minimum trip first. There have been close to 250 qualifying races in this time frame so a huge sample. Here are the draw splits going back to 2017 for 8+ runner handicaps:
Low draws seem to have a solid edge from a win perspective. Let’s see whether the percentage of rivals (PRB) data backs this up:
These figures suggest that this is a playable draw bias. Also this bias has proved to be consistent year in, year out. Here are the PRB figures for both the bottom and top thirds of the draw broken down by year:
As we can see, low draws had yearly figures varying from 0.52 to 0.58; high draws from 0.40 to 0.46. In each individual year low drawn horses have clearly enjoyed a good edge over their high drawn counterparts.
In conclusion, I would always favour lower draws over higher ones. Of course we need to take run style into account too, so with that in mind here is the draw and run style heat map for 5f handicaps (PRB figs):
This map illustrates that run style is a more potent indicator than draw, as front runners can win from anywhere including high. However, the remaining run styles when drawn high have a very poor time of it; especially horses racing in mid-division or near the back early.
Wolverhampton 6f Draw Bias
There have been 359 races since 2017 so an even bigger sample. Here are the draw splits in terms of win percentage:
This looks a much more even playing field than it did over 5f. How about the PRB figures – what extra insight do they give us?
It seems that high draws are again at a disadvantage. Low and middle draws are essentially on a par with each other.
Digging a little deeper, if we combine the four lowest stalls in every race it gives us a combined strike rate of 10.7% (A/E 0.87). Backing all of those draws in every race would have yielded a loss of 15p in the £ to SP. Combining draws 10 to 13 has given a strike rate of just 5.1% (A/E 0.69) and would have produced losses of 40p in the £. Hence, it seems that daws 1 to 4 are twice as likely to win as draws 10 to 13. Something to be aware of when the field size gets to double figures for all that it's not a profitable angle in itself.
The key takeaway here is perhaps the negative draw bias in relation to the highest third.
Wolverhampton 7f Draw Bias
Up another furlong and the number of races keeps increasing. This time there are nearly 400 races in the sample:
High draws are marginally worse off again and, once again, the PRB figures support the contention that there is a slight negative bias here with high numbers definitely worse off:
The highest draws (10 or bigger) have a PRB figure of just 0.42. Hence, it should be no surprise when we get to the two biggest field sizes (11 or 12 runners) that the top third PRB figure is a relatively lowly 0.43. In general, then, I would probably ignore horses from double figure draws unless I feel they have a clear edge over the rest of the field or can get to the front without burning too much gas.
Once we get to races of over 1 mile the draw is extremely level; in these races you can disregard the draw completely.
Wolverhampton Draw Summary
At Wolverhampton in 8+ runner handicaps, the draw is material at distances up to and including 7f with very high draws at a disadvantage, while low draws are definitely best over five furlongs.
Trainers at Wolverhampton
Nearly 3500 races going back to 2017 means we have a huge chunk of trainer data to drill down into. Below are the trainers who have secured a win strike rate of 14% or more from a minimum of 150 runs (ALL race types included):
All-weather stalwarts Haggas, Gosden and Varian all have strike rates in excess of one win in every four runs. Let’s look at these three yards in more detail.
William Haggas at Wolverhampton
Haggas' Wolves runners performance based on run style is worth sharing. His front runners and prominent racers have combined to win over 40 races and secure a strike rate of a hefty 43.1%; while his midfield and hold up horses have won just 11 races from 78 (SR 14.1%).
Other key findings are that Haggas has proved profitable to SP with horses sent off both as favourites and second favourites (ROIs of 9% and 13% respectively); and he has produced a strike rate of 36% when teaming up with jockey Tom Marquand. A return of 11p in the £ for this pair is playable. Finally, Haggas has a better record in non-handicaps where his runners have essentially broken even; his handicappers on the other hand have lost 23p in the £.
John (and Thady) Gosden at Wolverhampton
Over the past six seasons there has been good consistency shown by the Clarehaven yard of the Gosdens. Looking at the yearly win and each way strike rates show this:
From a win perspective every year has been 20% or higher; for each way purposes (win and placed combined) Team Gosden has hit 50%+ in five of the six seasons. Indeed, the 2017 figure of 44.74% is still commendable.
It should also be noted that 96.5% of all their winners have come from the top three in the betting. Horses 4th or bigger in the betting have a poor record with just 2 wins from 40 (SR 5%). Their 2yos have just about sneaked into profit, while their non-handicappers have broken even, give or take.
Finally, there is one negative to share: Gosden hold up horses have won just 15% of the time, losing an eye-watering 44p in the £.
Roger Varian at Wolverhampton
Roger Varian has just about sneaked into profit to SP which is impressive. Here are his strongest stats:
When Varian books Jack Mitchell to ride they have combined to win 24 of the 72 races (SR 33.3%) for a profit of £49.13 (ROI 68.2%)
Over 60% of his 3yo's have won or placed. Backing them all to win would have secured a return of 19p in the £
His strike rate with fillies and mares (female runners) has been higher than his strike rate with male runners. The ladies have secured a profit of £22.66 (ROI +28.3%)
His win and placed strike rate has exceeded 50% in all six seasons
Horses that raced prominently have won over 35% of the time
Trainer Comparison: Wolverhampton vs Other All-Weather Tracks
Before moving away from trainers, I'd like to do something a little different compared to previous articles. Below is a table comparing trainer strike rates and A/E indices at Wolverhampton with the same trainer's combined strike rate at the other five UK all-weather courses (Chelmsford, Kempton, Lingfield, Newcastle, Southwell). To qualify, each trainer has had at least 100 runners at Wolverhampton and at least 200 runners when combining the other five courses.
I have highlighted in green all A/E indices of 1.00 or more (strong positive); all indices 0.7 or lower are in red (strong negative). For context, the overall average A/E index for all trainers is 0.86, therefore any trainer between 0.92 and 0.99 I have highlighted in blue as I see these figures as a decent/positive mark.
It is interesting to note that most trainers have quite similar strike rates and A/E indices when comparing the Wolverhampton form with the wider all-weather circuit. Only Alan King seems to be a trainer who performs far better at Wolves than he does at other all weather courses combined, and that may very well be coincidence.
Jockeys at Wolverhampton
I'm not going to go into great detail about jockeys here, but I thought it worth sharing the riders who have secured an A/E index in excess of 1.00 at the course (100+ rides). Below is a graph detailing their win and win & placed (each way) strike rates at the course:
In order to prevent the data overlapping I have rounded the strike rates to the nearest whole number; I would see it as a positive if any of these jockeys was on board a horse I fancied at Wolves.
Wolverhampton Gender bias
We have seen a gender bias at each of the all-weather courses studied to date; here are the figures for Wolverhampton:
Once again males have the edge in all departments: Win%, ROI%, A/E and IV.
Females hold their own when comparing gender data from the top three in the betting, something we have seen at the other all-weather courses: specifically, male A/E index is 0.87, female 0.86; and SP returns show a difference between the two of just 1p in the £.
But males tend to outperform females at bigger prices – again, this is a pattern we have seen before.
Wolverhampton market factors
Let's now look at the win strike rates for different positions in the betting; starting with favourites and moving down to position 7th or more:
Favourites and second favourites have proved to be the best value as the A/E indices show:
Favourites have only lost 5.5p in the £ to SP; second favourites 9p in the £. At Betfair SP, favourites would have lost you 2p in the £ after commission, second favourites just a tiny loss of 0.5p in the £. Hence the top two in the betting seem to require close scrutiny here.
Sire Performance at Wolverhampton
Next we'll examine some sire data. Here are the top 20 sires in terms of strike rate since 2017. (To qualify – 100 runs or more; and must have had runners somewhere in the UK during 2022):
We have seen many of these in other top AW course lists such as Sharmardal, Dubawi,Frankel, and Lope De Vega to name but four. Kingman heads the list here and he has a good spread of different winners, rather than one or two horses dominating his statistical profile. In fact, 28 different horses (for his 30 wins in total) have won for him as their sire. Likewise, Dubawi has had numerous different winners: 39 different horses winning his 42 races.
In terms of damsires here are the top 10 in terms of strike rate:
It is promising to see all ten damsires with A/E indices of 1.00 or more. It is also slightly surprising to see eight of the ten in profit to SP. I'm not sure whether this will be kept up in the long term but it is interesting to say the least! This winter I think it is worth noting any runner whose damsire appears in this table; I would see it as a positive.
Wolverhampton Horses for courses
My final port of call as always is to look at some horses that have excelled at the course since 2017. To qualify for the list they must have won at least four races at the track with a strike rate of 25% or more. Further, they must have raced somewhere in the UK in 2022. Here are the horses that qualify, listed alphabetically. I have included a PRB column too (Percentage of rivals beaten):
Just the ten horses on the list, and one of the ten, Cappananty Con, switched trainers some time back and has not raced at Wolves for three years, so that is worth bearing in mind. If any of the horses in the list appear at Wolverhampton this winter, they are worth a second glance for sure.
Wolverhampton Key Takeaways
Before winding up, let's look at the main takeaways for Wolverhampton:
In 5f handicaps (8+ runners) front runners have a good edge from a run style perspective. They seem to have an even stronger edge in non-handicaps
In 6f handicaps (8+ runners) front runners and prominent racers clearly outperform horses that race mid-pack or are held up at or near the back early
In 7f handicaps (8+ runners) hold up horses have a poor record and are at a disadvantage
Low draws have an advantage over 5f; the highest draws have a relatively poor record
In 6f and 7f handicaps (8+ runners) it is a disadvantage to be drawn in a double figure stall
In terms of trainers, Haggas and Varian are two to generally keep on the right side
Male runners outrun female runners in general. However, when looking at the front end of the market there is little between them
Favourites and second favourites have performed slightly above the norm
Progeny of Kingman have a very strong record at the track
Refuse To Bend, Iffraaj, Dark Angel, Kingmambo, Montjeu, Street Cry, Zamindar, Exceed And Excel, Cape Cross and Dubawi are damsires whose horses have performed well here
*
And that's all of the tracks analysed. I hope you have found this all-weather series informative.
Next time, I’ll be looking at National Hunt trainers, starting with one at the very top of his game.
When the Ben Pauling-trained mare Anightinlambourn battled bravely up the Cheltenham hill to win her third chase from her last four starts for the Ben Pauling stable, it might have been seen as an omen, writes Tony Stafford. Certainly so, that is, by two handlers (unlike Ben) who train in the Valley and who had fancied later runners on that middle Saturday of the big Paddy Power Gold Cup meeting.
The first has been a licence holder for almost four decades since the 1984-5 season and, before that, assistant to a great champion for another six of his ten years’ training apprenticeship. The other, who has had his yard in Lambourn for 11 years, has spent it honing a method where jumping-bred animals are produced and developed with the principal, nay almost single-minded, aim of turning them into high-class steeplechasers.
The first of our two heroes, as heroes they are, is Oliver Sherwood, Grand National-winning trainer, and now in his late 60’s and happily free of the malignant cancer that threatened to curtail his life last year. Now the smile is back, the drawn features are a vague, lost figment of the imagination and winners are rolling again.
From an Essex farming family, Oliver is the son of hunting enthusiast Nat and brother of Simon, General Manager and Clerk of the Course at Ludlow and, for a never-to-be-forgotten while, rider of the peerless Desert Orchid, on whom he won ten races, nine in succession before the grey fell at Aintree in their last race together.
It’s almost 25 years since such as Large Action, owned by Brian Stewart-Brown, helped Sherwood onto the top table of jump trainers alongside his fellow former Fred Winter assistant, Nicky Henderson. More recently he won the 2015 Grand National with the eight-year-old Many Clouds for his main patron, the late Trevor Hemmings, Mr Aintree in succession to Ginger McCain, Red Rum’s trainer.
Halfway between those times, a young army officer was serving in Iraq, but he emerged from that experience with a resolve. Jamie Snowden had always been interested in riding and horses. It was as a serving officer that he managed to weave a reputation as the best military rider of his era. His frequent wins at the Grand Military meeting at Sandown every March made him the ideal man to trust to build a betting bank for the Cheltenham Festival the following week.
It helped that at this point he spent time as an assistant with Paul Nicholls, who provided some of the Sandown winners and he was also a prolific winner of point-to-points.
Later he joined Henderson, a while after Charlie Longsdon had left to start training and it was for Charlie that Snowden partnered the winner of the most valuable race of his riding career. He had ridden the 10-year-old gelding Kerstino Two to three wins in succession – the horse’s first three starts after coming under Longsdon’s care – and they finished in the money the next twice.
Then, on January 6, 2007, at Sandown Park, they lined up for the £25k to the winner Ladbrokespoker.com Handicap Chase. They won by three lengths with Mr J Snowden claiming five pounds making the most of that military races experience to beat the 9/4 favourite, Preacher Boy, ridden by a certain A P McCoy. Then in turn came Noel Fehily, Tom O’Brien, Seamus Durack, Ruby Walsh, Paddy Merrigan, Daryl Jacob (claiming 3lb), and Charlie Studd. Paddy Brennan, Sam Thomas and Timmy Murphy all pulled up in completing the rollcall.
Both Longsdon and Snowden had moved on by the time Ray Tooth’s Punjabi had joined Henderson and, while he was winning his Champion Hurdle and a couple of Irish Grade 1 races, Ben Pauling and Tom Symonds had filled the role as joint-assistants.
By then, Jamie, with the serious riding just about out of his system, had set up at Folly House in Upper Lambourn. By Saturday at Cheltenham, I make it he had trained a total of 335 domestic winners, and Jamie Snowden Racing Ltd has completed the clean sweep of training winners at every UK jumps course.
Win number 335 was the most valuable prize and easily the race with the biggest prestige of his career to date. It was the £90k to the winner Paddy Power Gold Cup, the feature of the entire three days, which he took with well backed 5/1 shot Ga Law.
As befits an army man, the road to the Paddy Power was planned with (almost) military precision – he did think that maybe three weeks between a comeback after 600 days off and running back in such a big race might entail the risk of the dreaded “bounce”. Well, the only bounce was the way Ga Law jumped the formidable Cheltenham fences under Johnny Burke and they had more than enough to hold off the challengers coming up the hill.
For a six-year-old on only his ninth career start, this was an exceptional performance and the French-bred gelding, like all Jamie’s carefully sourced young horses, has a pedigree to match his ability.
Johnny Burke was also on our other equine star of the show and when I say star, I have no doubt that is exactly what Queens Gamble is destined to be. She had already shown herself to be well above average on her only previous start, also at Cheltenham at the April meeting, when I think it’s fair to say she caught her trainer slightly unawares, for as he says he never fully winds up his bumper horses on their debuts.
Queens Gamble is a daughter of Getaway from a winning mare which the owners raced with Jessica Harrington. She in turn was a daughter of Hawk Wing, favourite for both the 2,000 Guineas and Derby of 2002 but second in turn to stable-mates Rock Of Gibraltar and High Chaparral, although he did win Group 1 races at two, three and four.
He didn’t produce anything like the 137-rated horse he was by the time of his retirement, but he was always slightly quirky and the fact he eventually was sent as a stallion to Korea tells its own story.
If Queens Gamble looked good last April, on Saturday the performance was even better as this is always a high class mares’ bumper. She drew easily eight lengths clear of the previous winner of the race, the unbeaten (in three) Fergal O’Brien mare Bonttay and the rest of a deep field.
As with Frankel late in Sir Henry Cecil’s career, and this year Desert Crown, the Derby winner for Sir Michael Stoute, there is no reason why Oliver Sherwood should not take charge of the best he’s had in his later years as a trainer, such is his wealth of experience and career-long success. All that’s missing really is that title!
I certainly remember calling him something in his riding days, way back in the early 1970’s. Then, the Sporting Chronicle was the northern-based racing daily in competition with the Sporting Life, the main paper in the rest of the country. Both had naps tables and I was in the Chronicle list.
Coming to the Kempton pre-Cheltenham meeting – the competition ended a few weeks later – I had a long lead in the 70-strong field, but halfway through the meeting, I thought I recognised a name of one of the winners.
The horse was called Balmer’s Combe, ridden by Oliver Sherwood. It won at 66/1 (having opened at 14’s!) and sure enough the tipster in fourth, Teddy Davis of the Chester Chronicle, had made it his nap. I only ever saw him at the big meetings and, obviously, at Chester, and it wasn’t until that May when I asked him about it.
"It was all a mistake", he said. "I was told Oliver Sherwood would have a winner that day. It was trained by Fred Winter, but then it became a non-runner. He’d picked up a spare ride on a no-hoper, trained by Richard Mitchell, so I assumed that must be the horse. There were a couple of non-runners and a few fallers, so he won!" I couldn’t hold it against Teddy who was a lovely old boy, obviously long gone; but that Sherwood!
Having expected a big run from Queens Gamble, on whom Johnny Burke didn’t need to be as vigorous as on Ga Law, I was delighted when she came up the hill clearly in a class of her own. She’s the real deal!
There was predictability about the rest of the day, notably an Irish double initiated by the well-backed Banbridge, who floated over the fences and cantered clear for Joseph O’Brien in the competitive Arkle Trial for novice chasers. Then there was a trademark gamble landed with ease by Tony Martin via Unanswered, living up to his name in a one-sided stayers’ handicap hurdle.
The Irish, as ever, are coming, but two stout Englishmen based in Lambourn will be doing their utmost to see them off this winter, in a race or two at any rate.
The all-weather track at Southwell racecourse was re-laid from fibresand to tapeta in the spring/summer of 2021, and racing resumed on 7th December 2021. Hence, for this sixth track in my all-weather analysis series, I will be using racing data from 7th December 2021 to 30th September 2022, writes Dave Renham. This gives us relatively limited data at this stage (293 races in total) but it will still be interesting to see what shows itself. My race data collection has once again been taken solely from the Geegeez Query Tool and therefore all profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price. I will include Betfair SP data when it is worth sharing.
Personally I liked the old fibresand surface as it offered some playable biases, but there’s no point dwelling on the past! Let’s start digging into the future, and the tapeta numbers.
Running Style at Southwell
For running style data I only examine handicaps and usually handicaps of 8 or more runners. For this piece, however, I am going to use 7 or more runners just to give us a little extra data to work with.
Southwell 5f Run Style Bias
Let’s start as usual with the minimum trip of 5f. It is a straight five at Southwell; the only distance raced on the straight course there. Here are the run style splits for the new tapeta surface (40 races):
Front runners have certainly had the best of it to date, and by some considerable margin. 40 races is usually enough to start building up a picture. The A/E indices correlate strongly as one would expect:
If these types of figures continue in the coming months, Southwell’s 5f trip will become one of the most potent front running biases on the sand.
I also thought it would be a good idea to work out the Percentage of Rival Beaten (PRB) figures for each run style in these 5f handicaps. These were manually calculated and an explanation of them can be found in my first Dundalk article.
Here are the PRB splits:
These correlate positively with the earlier two sets of stats. The beauty of PRB is that it includes all runners in all races, which creates a much bigger data pool. All things considered, I am confident there is currently a strong front-running bias in 5f handicaps on this new surface at Southwell.
Southwell 6f Run Style Bias
Onto 6f now and this is the first distance run around a bend.
Front runners continue to have a good edge according to the win percentages, although it doesn't seem to be as potent over this extra furlong. 41 races in the sample so similar to the 5f data shared earlier. A look at A/E indices next:
There is a positive correlation with the A/E indices and the win percentages once more. PRB figures now:
Front runners have a decent edge using this ‘measure’ once again, while the other three running styles are all around the same mark. All three data sets are giving a positive edge for front runners, and I am hopeful this trend will continue over the winter. There does not seem too much to choose between the other three running styles.
Southwell 7f Run Style Bias
There have been 32 handicaps with 7+ runners over this trip since the re-laying so the smallest sample to date. Here are the figures in tabular form:
As can be seen, front runners have not enjoyed the advantage over this 7f trip. Indeed I worked out their PRB figure and it is very low at 0.43. It is a smallish sample so I would not want to be making sweeping conclusions just yet, but my gut feel is that front runners are not the way to go at this trip. Currently run style is not a factor I would consider too deeply over this distance at Southwell.
Southwell 1m Run Style Bias
A quick look at the 1 mile handicap data:
There is very little between each group now in reality at this trip of 1 mile and, so far, it looks to play very fairly.
To finish this section I will combine all longer trips together into one group.
Southwell 1m3f+ Run Style Bias
This gives us just under 60 handicap races to breakdown:
Front runners over these distances have a poor record, while the best approach seems to be held up early.
It appears at this stage, therefore, that in terms of run style at Southwell, we have two main trips to focus on. Five furlongs, where the front running bias looks very strong, and six furlongs, where the front running bias is significant enough to be of interest. Also, when we look at 1m 3f+ races, it could pay to avoid front runners while potentially keeping an eye on hold up horses.
The Draw at Southwell
Here is the Southwell racecourse map.
It is a 10f oval circuit with a 5f straight track. Let’s now drill down into the draw data:
Southwell 5f Draw Bias
The shortest distance first and, as mentioned, the only straight track race distance. Here are the splits since the course was re-laid to tapeta:
These stats potentially suggest that low draws may enjoy a very small edge, and if we look at the win and placed stats combined, this starts to look a more likely scenario:
In order to hopefully confirm that there has been a low draw bias of some description, we need to see the percentage of rivals beaten (PRB) data.
I think this underlines the fact that lower draws have had a tangible edge to date. Also, if you ringfenced stalls 1 to 4, their combined PRB figure stands at an even higher 0.57. The most successful stall has been the lowest one (draw 1) – this draw has seen its runners produce a huge PRB figure of 0.66.
It is also worth noting that if you had backed all low drawn runners in every qualifying 5f handicap you would have made a profit of around £19.00 to £1 level stakes equating to a return of around 12p in the £.
It is still early days, but the signs are we may have a low draw bias to try and take advantage of. The old 5f stats on the fibresand also favoured low which I guess may give us further confidence in these initial findings.
Southwell 6f Draw Bias
Here are the draw splits for the 6f trip:
Middle draws potentially fare best. How about the PRB figures?
There is nothing in it on PRB, which is the most accurate measure of potential draw bias. The A/E indices for each third are within 0.1 of each other, too, so taking all data into account it seems 6f is a level playing field so far from a draw perspective.
Southwell 7f Draw Bias
Onto 7f now and, like the 6f trip, they race around a single lefthand bend.
This race sample of 32 is the smallest to date and although these figures suggest middle draws are being squeezed a little, I personally don’t think there is anything significant going on here draw wise. The PRB figures will shed more light:
As we can see, middle draws don’t seem at a disadvantage after all. Low draws may have a slight edge but I would like to see another year’s worth of data to see if this is actually the case. It looks pretty fair at this stage.
Southwell 1m Draw Bias
Nothing to report over 1 mile really. The 30 races have seen 10 wins for low draws, 9 for middle and 11 for high.
Time to move away from the draw – it seems a level playing field from 6f upwards. As stated earlier, there may possibly be a small low draw bias over 5f.
From this point on I will be looking at ALL races, not just 7+ runner handicaps.
Trainers at Southwell
Clearly, recent data is going to be limited for trainers. Indeed just seven trainers have saddled 50 or more runners in this time frame. My starting point will therefore be to look at pre-tapeta data; specifically, reviewing fibresand trainer stats going back to 2016. Here are the top trainers from that period (minimum 70 runs; win SR% 13% or more):
From here I am going to focus on the top six trainers in terms of strike rate and look at their record over the past year to see if we can glean anything. Here are my findings:
The first thing to say is that there are limited data for all six trainers. However, the figures for the Balding and Barron’s stables look promising – they are in the same sort of ballpark as before. The others are below par although Karl Burke has had five second places and if, say, two of those had won his figures would be close to pre-tapeta levels. Likewise, if two of Archie Watson’s four seconds had won he, too, would be back to the 22% win SR.
Tim Easterby’s figures are slightly more concerning but it is still early days, so best to wait another year at least to see if his form picks up (Note: After this piece was researched Tim Easterby saddled two winners on 9th Oct 2022 at 9/1 and 40/1!)
Keeping with the Easterby family, the David and Mick Easterby stable have saddled 10 winners from 30 runners in the last year producing returns of 91p in the £. Their 2016 to 2021 fibresand data on the other hand produced just 9 winners from 148 runners. There are some racing statistics that simply cannot be explained!
Before moving on I thought it might be worth comparing the PRB figures for the six trainers across the two time frames. At least this way we get slightly more detailed data for the last year:
The figures for the last year are around what I would have expected for five of the trainers given what we knew from the fibresand days. It seems, though, that Karl Burke’s recent figures are not so different after all.
The three Bs of Balding, Barron and Burke are stables that are likely to go well in the coming months. I would not write off the other three yet – we need a few more runs in the sample for them I feel.
Jockeys at Southwell
I’m not going to go into great detail here due to the limited data, but one jockey who has started well since the resurfacing is Daniel Muscutt. At time of writing, he has ridden 13 winners from just 49 rides (SR 26.5%) for a profit of £32.51 (ROI +66.3%). What impresses me more than his bare stats is that he has ridden winners for 11 different stables. Hence there is no trainer bias going on here. Time will tell whether he can keep up this hot streak.
Before moving on, Ben Curtis and Clifford Lee both had excellent fibresand stats going back to 2016. Between them to date they have had only 32 rides between them on the new surface, so too early to tell whether they will maintain their high performance level in the future.
Southwell Gender bias
We have seen a gender bias at each of the all-weather courses I have studied so far. Here are Southwell’s tapeta figures:
For this angle, we have a decent data set and it seems the gender bias is occurring here, too. I also checked out the PRB figures and males have an edge of 0.514 to 0.468.
When we have another year’s worth of results I personally will dig a bit deeper into specific areas like market or distance / gender data.
Southwell Market factors
Time for a look at the win% strike rates for different positions in the betting; starting with favourites and moving down to position 7th or more:
Second favourites have performed above the norm so far but I would expect the 24.5% win SR% to drop to around 20% in time. Favourites are about par losing around 9p in the £ to SP.
A look at market rank A/E indices next:
These are a bit up and down, but this is almost certainly down to the fact we have less than a year's worth of data. The favourite figure, however, is approximately what we might expect.
Over time I would expect these figures to mirror other courses and, hence, I would focus most of my attention on the top five in the betting despite the mixed data we see above.
Sire Performance at Southwell
The data set for sires is really limited. Only eight sires have had 50 or more runners. We will need to wait at least two more years to start seeing any potential patterns. Damsire data is similar with just five damsires having 50 runs or more.
Southwell Horses for courses
Once again our data is limited for this section. One horse has actually won four times (from 9 starts) in the last year and that is Back From Dubai. He won four on the bounce in the early part of 2022, but since then is 0 from 4, his handicap mark taking a deserved hike in the process. Daafy is 3 from 8 (PRB 0.77) and Fine Wine is also 3 wins from 8 starts (PRB 0.67).
Southwell Takeaways
To conclude, despite there only being roughly a year of racing on the new surface we do have some key takeaways.
There looks to be a strong front running bias over 5f in handicaps.
At 6f, front runners also have an edge, although not as powerful as the 5f one.
Back to 5f, there is potentially a slight low draw bias, and it will be interesting to see how that plays out this winter.
Males outperform females as we have seen at all other all weather tracks, while favourites have produced a par performance.
Trainers wise, the Balding and Barron yards - as well perhaps as Karl Burke - are worth generally keeping on side.
That's all for this piece. I'll be back next week with the final chapter, looking at Dunstall Park, better known as Wolverhampton Racecourse.
Whilst some members of the Geegeez staff have been halfway around the world to watch the Breeders Cup in the last fortnight, others of us have been to such luxury destinations as *checks notes* Hereford, Ludlow, Exeter and Wincanton, writes David Massey.
Let's be honest here, though, if Matt offered me the tickets for free I'd still not go, as a) I have a flying phobia and b) the jumps season is starting to properly kick into gear. It's not all paddock watching and taking notes, however, I'm still doing some on-course work for the books, and that began with my first visit to Hereford last week.
It must seem, to the casual reader, that all the places I work at are exactly three-and-a-half hours away but that is indeed the time it takes for me to get to Hereford in a two-part trip. The first is from Nottingham to Leicester to get my lift, and that's the easy part; the more difficult second part involves crammed motorways and even when you turn off the M5 and see the sign saying "Hereford 20 miles", you're still the best part of 45 minutes away. Make that an hour if you get caught behind a tractor.
I was told the previous Hereford meeting was decent business, with just 15 books and a good crowd. Today, an extra four bookmakers turning up and the crowd down means it's slim pickings. I take a £1 ew bet from a punter having her first ever bet; she has it on the 8-13 favourite, Marble Sands, in the second race and picks up £2.87. I round it up to £3 for her in the hope she'll have another bet. She doesn't. She can, though, legitimately say to her friends she made a 50% profit on the day, which is something plenty cannot.
We actually got a result in the first, as the 5-1 shot Manintheshadows wins, but that really is a false dawn. That's followed by five out of the next six favourites winning, and two down from me, Martyn of Leicester looks decidedly peaky. "I think we'll have a steak dinner on the way back with what's left", son Stuart bemoans. He's true to his word and sends me a picture of it later that evening.
Next stop, Ludlow. Originally I was going to do this as a day trip but there's a change of plan and instead I'll stay over before Exeter on the Friday. I do like the drive to Ludlow, taking in the town of Much Wenlock, the home of the Olympics, on the way. If you don't believe me, then try and remember the names of the two Olympic mascots for the 2012 London Olympics. There's a good reason they chose the names they did. Have a Google and if you ever get the chance, give Much Wenlock a visit.
If you've never been to Ludlow before and you're using a satnav, you'll think it's sent you wrong when it tells you you've reached your destination and you appear to be in the middle of a field. Have a look around; can you see hurdles and fences surrounding you? Yep, you're there then. It's a strange one, is Ludlow: driving over mats here and there, all the time in the middle of the track. At the golf club, turn right.
The punting started badly, with me managing to lay two winners, but I'd been waiting for Fortescue's half-brother Blenkinsop to make his handicap debut in the last and, stepping up in trip, he duly got there just in time under another great Alice Stevens ride (she's good...) to save the day. Follow him this season, he'll win more.
I stayed over near Gloucester (after calling in at Gloucester Services, one of the great service stations) and although no fire alarms on this occasion, an owl outside my window made sure I got some noise in the night.
It's Exeter the next day. Never has the Exeter press room seen so many people in it, I'm told. An overflow area is required and one is provided. I bump into photographer Alan Crowhurst, up for an award for his "once in a blue moon" shot he managed to get this year. I ask him if that was his mate Ken Pitterson getting a round in, but he tells me that "ITV's Ken Pitterson", as Al refers to him, has gone cashless these days.
The best line Al has ever cracked about Ken was at the Yarmouth festival two years ago. The three of us were walking to the paddock together when Ken was stopped by an avid fan. It's fair to say his shoes had seen better days, the shirt he was wearing looked a step up on a rubbing-rag and his trousers had a hole in them. "You're great you are Ken", says the superfan. "When you're on he telly I follow all your tips." Quick as a flash Al looks at me and quips, "I think that's why he's dressed like that, Ken." Much laughter, even from Kenny P.
Anyway, I think I've seen a really lovely one in Outlaw Peter today. I shall start your cliché bingo card off with "a chaser in the making" and "could be anything" at this stage, but he's superbly put together and I will be disappointed if he doesn't make it near the top of the tree, be it this season or next.
Thyme Hill isn't left with a lot to beat once Press Your luck pulls up, so it's hard to say how good over fences he might be, but he does seem to have grown a little physically and ought to progress. I don't mind the fact he makes a mistake or two, it's how some novices learn to find a leg, and we will know more on his next run.
I fancy War Lord in the Haldon Gold Cup, but he doesn't see which way Greaneteen goes, in fact none of them do. So much for my thoughts of him using this as a warm-up for the Tingle Creek. War Lord finds it all happening a bit quick for him; surely softer ground and/or a step up in trip is now required.
Again, the last digs me out of the doo-doo, with Gerard Mentor holding on by a diminishing 3/4l from the gamble of the day Begin The Luck, who looked outstanding in the paddock and will surely make amends sooner rather than later. He goes off 100-30 but I'd nicked a bit of 11-2 in the morning, and he will pay for the evening meal in Yeovil. I didn't think I was that hungry, but when the nice lady on the reception desk informs me I'm entitled to a pint, main course and a dessert for £15, I can't sign up quick enough...
Excitingly, a trip to Wincanton to finish the week. I've never been so it's another to tick off the list (I'm coming for you Redcar, but not until next year) and what a cracking little track it is. Great facilities, good parade ring access, plenty of room for all and the only shame is the ground, which one jockey describes as "firm, with not much good in it". It has kept runners down a bit and a week of solid rain is probably needed to get it on the soft side. I realise it isn't the only place that needs it, but with cards recently abandoned for waterlogging, it hardly seems fair, does it?
Anyway, I'm there with my mate Becky, who has also taken her horse out of the novice hurdle with the ground. I have a share in her, so we'll have to wait until another day to find out exactly how slow she actually is.
There isn't a dry eye in the house as Frodon wins the Badger Beer, with her regular partner Bryony giving her a peach of a ride to win by 2 1/2l, a last-fence error by her nearest challenger, Lord Accord, helping her cause.
I spoke to Neil Mulholland afterwards, telling him if his had winged the last and chinned Frodon, he probably wouldn't have got out of Wincanton alive. He laughs. "You know what", he says, "I don't mind getting beaten by a good horse."
He thinks for a moment. "A proper horse."
I think that is something we can all agree on.
That nice Mr Nicholls has four of the seven winners, and the locals have pockets stuffed full of money. As I leave, just as the rain starts, I see the Martyn Of Leicester firm paying out again. I've seen that look on his face already this week; it's the same one he wore at Hereford. Steak dinners all round on the way home, again?
- DM
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Frodon_BadgerBeer.jpg319830David Masseyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDavid Massey2022-11-09 10:44:172022-11-09 10:44:19Roving Reports: Pastures New
The Breeders' Cup action on the tracks at Keeneland was, barring the high class procession of Flightline in the Classic, fiercely contested and highly emotionally charged. So, too, was betting the races; and, for this punter at least, it was a white knuckle roller coaster of a weekend. Allow me to elaborate...
A feature of playing big meetings is the availability of futures - or ante post, if you prefer - markets: more generous prices offered ahead of time when there is less certainty about which horses will run, what form they will be in, and how the races will set up. In the days leading up to the event, I had what the latest markets suggested was a solid value book and, importantly, had largely dodged the dreaded no shows.
Alas, that luck didn't hold with Laurel River getting scratched from the Dirt Mile the day before. 7/1 about a 3/1 shot is decent; 7/1 about a non-runner is, well, not decent. That's the futures game in a nutshell right there.
To Friday, and five two-year-old contests, three of them on the turf. How would the Europeans fare? And how would the portfolio hold up?! The opening Juvenile Turf Sprint would offer a tentative answer to both questions.
Love Reigns had been available at 8/1 a few days prior to race day - highlighted in this post as a likely shortener - and was sent off the 3.14/1 favourite for Wesley Ward, seeking a fourth straight win in the race; it's only been on the card for five years! That one broke only OK but couldn't run with the British speedsters who, led by Mischief Magic, finished 1-2-4-5. I'd had little bets on a few US horses (they'd won all four prior renewals) and they're mostly still running... I did nick a couple of quid with Dramatised's fine run but neither she nor any other was a match for Charlie Appleby's colt.
Next came the Juvenile Fillies and a contention that the Alcibiades, run over the same course and distance four weeks prior, was the key race. There, Wonder Wheel beat Chop Chop by a rapidly diminishing nose, with Raging Sea third. Chop Chop was the bet and 6/1 was secured (having flagged her at 8's and been too tardy to actually get any of that). She went off a little bigger than 9/4 but had no chance, getting a five wide transit throughout and eased off in the straight, with Wonder Wheel winning again and Raging Sea again finishing third. The winner was impressive under different tactics - she was supposed to be front rank but missed the bus! - and would probably have won anyway.
Staying with the two-year-old fillies but on the grass now, in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, it was time for Europe to try to win their third renewal on the occasion of the fifteenth running. Not a strong record, but Aidan O'Brien had peppered the target in spite of never having won the race. I'd fielded against the British and Irish, with their very poor race record, and had some fancy prices about a clutch of American runners. It was money back on G Laurie after she scratched the day before; and I was cheering 20/1 Free Look or 40/1 Pleasant Passage to get in front.
We all know what Meditate did: she was much the best and dominated in the straight. But with 13/2 or so Pleasant Passage running second, and 15/2 Free Look less than a length behind her in fifth, it was another close but no cigar event for this punter.
After two second places at decent prices, and a favourite taken at 6/1 who was the 'right answer with the wrong trip', it wasn't going especially well. And it would be going worse after the Juvenile...
In that penultimate Breeders' Cup Friday race, I'd played a 'no brainer' double finishing in the Mile with Modern Games and starting with Bob Baffert's Cave Rock. I feared the inside drawn Hurricane J as a pace spoiler and, as it turned out, was right to because that one ensured Cave Rock - sent off just less than 1/2 - did a tap more than ideal in chasing the lead. As they entered the straight, up loomed east coast champ Forte to run the jolly down.
Another second and it was starting to smart. At least this time, I picked up a few shekels for the place part on National Treasure, the second of four horses flagged in the 'bet these now' post from a week or so prior. He returned 8/1 and only 1/2 for the 'show' (i.e. to finish 3rd or better).
Finally on the opening day we had the Juvenile Turf, with the raiders bidding for a clean sweep on the sod and me bidding to get things back on track. This time I'd swung at an Appleby - not the only one across the weekend as will become apparent - in the form of progressive Autumn Stakes winner Silver Knott. In my quest for value, I'd merely supplanted big prices on this occasion, with the exception of 8/1 win only on Silver K.
Naturally, he found just a dash of traffic in his daring rail run while Victoria Road charmed himself through the eye of a needle between horses to prevail by a nose. The four remaining plays in the race, three of them over-staked most likely, are currently asking for directions to the jam stick somewhere towards the end of the back straight.
At the end of day one with the UK books I'd staked £586 and returned a skimpy £129.48. Meanwhile, in tote action, I had bought a $500 betting voucher and converted that into $708 by close of play, mainly thanks to a patriotic (of sorts) $20 exacta Victoria Road over Silver Knott; so a little more than £250 down overall on Friday. Far from a drama at this point, and I at least had some betting tokens for day two, as well as an equally healthy looking portfolio for the Saturday.
*
Breeders' Cup Saturday is a goliath of a race day: nine main event races bookended by two or three undercard heats make for an eleven or, as in this case, twelve race card. Even just focusing on the Cup stuff, which was the case for me, is a momentous undertaking. I was up early - everyone needed to be with a first post time of 10.30am - and had scribbled my tote plays into a notebook.
These are them, and I placed them all prior to the first race, something I've never done before and which turned out to be a godsend.
Total stakes were $1173 rather than $965 due to a) backing Cody's Wish for fifty bucks, and b) immediately recycling the return on that on two losers in the FM Turf. Sigh. Anyway, we're getting ahead of ourselves.
Saturday's curtain raiser was the Filly and Mare Sprint, a race in which I've had plenty of success backing bombs down the years and, with a ton of early speed in the pre-entries, I was excited to swing big again. But, when first Letruska and then Hot Peppers - both out and out need the lead types - were scratched, it notably diluted the front end heat. We still had Slammed, Lady Rocket and Echo Zulu, each of which had led or been within half a length at the first call in three of their last four starts, so the bomb play remained viable to some degree.
The whole position hung on a contention that favoured Midnight Olive might i) be over-estimated and ii) burn herself out chasing a too hot tempo. Long story slightly shorter, it just didn't play out that way: the first half went in 22.10, 44.89, which is quick enough; but the speed held up and Olive showed plenty of class to win by daylight.
Tote tickets with big-priced deep closers on top went on the spike. As did my only ante post play, on the sole Japanese runner, Chain Of Love, who, after a taking late rally both in the Dubai Golden Shaheen and in Japan last time, showed absolutely nada here. The other two deep closers - Obligatory and Chi Town Lady - did what they do but always at a respectful distance (respectively 14.5 and 16 lengths off the front at the first call!)
Having projected the opener completely wrong, I then managed to totally overlook Caravel, winner of the Turf Sprint, when doing form previews of 'all' runners. This was a potent combination of embarrassing and annoying, not that she'd have featured highly on my shortlist save for the good looking track and trip win last time out. I certainly wouldn't have played her 'on top', so that's something, I guess.
In the end, as well as ante post plays Arrest Me Red (ran fine, not good enough) and a double kicking off with Golden Pal (dreadfully dull effort), I added a few day of race darts including the Appleby duo and a defensive play on Flotus at about a million to one on the board. Also limped in with a very narrow Pick 4 guess. Limped back out again about 55.77 seconds later - in fairness, so did most other people who probably staked more into that pool than me.
Chazza's Creative Force closed well into third without ever threatening the (pretty impressive) winner; Emaraaty Ana ran another stormer in second and Highfield Princess performed perfectly well in fourth. The $100 US tote chip on her was lost but she was, like most of my tickets, value when comparing available odds.
The Turf Sprint was the only grass race won by the home team all weekend as it transpired, British runners finishing 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 6th in what was still a strong non-winning display.
"System going well, send more money" was the summary at this point. And, in the Dirt Mile, some respite. A lazy, chalky bullseye on story horse Cody's Wish - see below - was a relative shot in the arm to at least stem the flow: nice little cocktail of mixed metaphor there...
There's no doubt Flightline delivered the most powerful racing performance of the weekend. But was there anything better than this?
Cody's Wish was given a measured ride to out-finish the extremely busy and admirably tough Cyberknife who went down fighting. I'd had a good looking investment on late nonner, Laurel River, and my wise guy exacta selections - one of which was the other horse I backed in Britain, Simplification - took the wrong course, or something.
Check out Cody's on the jockey cam
Onwards, as is relentlessly the case through the top class nonet of wagering conundrums (wasn't sure if it should be 'conundra', so googled and discovered a very fun - if utterly nerdy - answer here) on day 2 at BC.
[Aside: Six-eight Friday/Saturday would work so much better, but we don't really need another juvenile race - dirt sprint?! - which would only make it seven-nine in any case; and moving one of the older horse Saturday races would be incongruent, so guess we're staying like this for now]
It was the Filly & Mare Turf next with its host of Euro entries. I was as cool as a refrigerated cucumber on the chances of the Ballydoyle 'T' brace, Tuesday and Toy, but all around the vibes - ah, yes, the vibes - were strong, especially about the Oaks winner. My contention had been she wasn't needing a bigger than quarter mile drop in trip; the counter - made by, clearly, smarter judges than me - was that she was crying out for it. Turned out she was. Luckily for me, one of the shroods was Neil, with whom I'd chewed the form cud for much of the weekend. His bet of the day, I couldn't ignore her, especially at 6/1 in a place.
It is, as they say, far better to be lucky than good. Having been neither heretofore, I borrowed someone else's good for ten minutes and caught some luck.
In point of fact, I'd been good enough to back second-placed In Italian each way at 7/1 - she went off 3/1 - and lucky enough that she made all bar the last fifty yards of the running. But the same tote board tempted me into a rapid release of my Cody coin, first with $100 on Nashwa at 4/1 (her price then proceeded to crash to a little better than 5/2, at which she'd have been no bet) and then $50 Above The Curve who ran no race this time. In the finish, with a $5 exacta returning $110, this was slightly better than a scratch race overall. But, left to my own devices, it would have been a car crash. Jeez.
The middle leg on Saturday, race five, was the Sprint, and the first of two coronations. Or so we/I thought. Jackie's Warrior had been much the best in the division all season, figured to get an easy lead, had had legit excuses (stamina, injury) when failing at odds on the past two Breeders' Cups, and, well, he'd just win, wouldn't he?
One of my learnings from the weekend - which I should already know - is that, when it looks like one horse will get a soft lead, it's information that every rider in the race will be aware of; as such, the chance of such an eventuality diminishes, and the price needs to reflect that scope for something different to play out. 4/5 is not a price that permits much uncertainty at all, and so my third - and, mercifully, final - punchy short odds double was waved adios as the #7 horse, Super Ocho, two boxes inside Jackie's Warrior, dished it up to the champ-elect on the front end through five of the six eighths of a mile. Then along came the big improver this season, Elite Power, with a strong finish to roll on by. JW was sufficiently cooked that the octogenarian (OK, unfair, he's eight, not 80) C Z Warrior also shuffled his Zimmer frame past in the final strides.
This was a hideous bet for me, coupling a non-runner and a pair of shorties both of whom failed to make the place position let alone the win. The first two home were nowhere on my exotics either so, head shaking like a sideways Churchill pooch, we pushed on pronto.
Well into the second half, then, and I've yet to have a winning opinion of my own. I was feeling pretty down in the chops by this point, and I didn't really have anything to cheer in the Mile after Cave Rock had done for my value double with Modern Games. I'd backed Annapolis at 10's because I felt he had to be shorter by the off, and I had some tote action firmly centred on Modern G. I meant to back Ivar but didn't, which would have been annoying assuming the books had paid four places and a relief if they paid three. And I played a bit of Order of Australia and Kinross at his ridiculous US tote price of 9.39/1: I didn't like him at 3/1 back home but this was a bit insulting.
More losers, more self-flagellation and wagering-wise I was in what felt like as big a hole in a couple of days as I'd been since some reckless punting ventures of many moons ago. I'd done about $750 on the tote to this point, but had $250 left of those wagers placed before racing; but my ante post book was in tatters: £1300 staked, £600 returned. Writing that now, it's not nearly as terrible as I'd perceived, but when you're caught up in a really fast-moving moment like Breeders' Cup Saturday lucid thinking can fail even the best of us - and certainly me.
There were three races left and I needed a minor miracle to get out breathing, or so I thought without the benefit of the bean counting in the stanza above. It was the Distaff next, and I'd made a stinky each way play on Malathaat at 3/1 () believing that the eight pre-entries would reduce to seven with one filly claiming first preference elsewhere. If ever a bet deserved to get whacked, it was this one. But, with so many on the spike that arguably deserved better, the perversity of the betting deities was on show yet again.
In the best finish of the meeting - a three-way shootout separated by nostrils - Malathaat just edged Blue Stripe with Clairiere rounding out the podium positions. The winner paid 2.88/1 compared to my 3/1. I mean, I'd take it if you offered me it on every 3/1 ticket struck, but... With a couple of place bob on Clairiere each way at 14/5, too, this felt massive. Again, it felt bigger than it was. Such can be the heightened sensitivity of a marathon punting sesh.
Additionally, I had taken a couple of wimpy Pick 3's starting in the Distaff, rolling through the Turf and ending in the Classic. This is the losing $1 version, and I played a $3 version with the same horses in legs 1 and 2, and the big guy in the Classic.
In fairness, they may have been narrow but they left well touted Nest off the Distaff leg, and that helped. If not yet quite back in the game, it was at least looking a little less like a motorway pile up and veering towards a shattered headlight, to continue with the utterly unsuitable vehicular metaphor.
But then came something approaching divine intervention in the Breeders' Cup Turf. I knew from midsummer I wanted to be with Charlie in anything beyond a mile on the lawns, and I'd seen a quote mid-September that Nations Pride and Rebel's Romance were slated to get on the 'plane. In their final preps, both took the eye in differing ways: Nations battered his rivals at Aqueduct while Rebel's showed a rarely-seen-in-distance-racers turn of pace before flattening (or maybe idling) in a German Group 1; he still won there. Both were 12/1. Well, I went and backed 'em though I wasn't allowed much. Fair enough, I suppose. A week before, I had a bit of a saver on War Like Goddess, and before racing began I'd played boldly in exactas and trifectas with four Euro horses, the Appleby pair as 'A' picks on top.
It went really rather better than anything to that point. And thank crikey for that.
After drawing £720 I was now in front on the ante post book, a scarcely plausible position from just an hour ago. As well as that, I'd cashed a $10 exacta with Rebel's Romance on top of Stone Age, another horse I was against when doing the form but drawn to by 'the vibes'. The exacta paid $69.87 for a dollar, so $698.70 for ten. I'd played some $5 trifectas with Charlie over Aidan/Charlie over Aidan/Charlie. Not quite, but could conceivably have put the Goddess underneath: it came up $175.27 for each 50 cent unit. Woulda coulda shoulda.
Emotions were up and up by now. Some people say you shouldn't get emotional when betting, but not me. I want to be moved by both the action and the outcome. I want to feel good and, yes, I want to feel bad; that's the game: we need the bad beats to give us emotional context for when it goes our way, to elevate the sense of joy, relief, excitement, vindication. That's why we bet. It's why I bet at any rate. Those who use an algo to nick a few quid... well good luck to them but what a soulless existence.
Here's the Rebel, reprising that late gear change and getting me boisterous in the process:
And so to the climax of the meeting, the Breeders' Cup Classic, and a fella named Flightline. I had those two Pick 3's live into the Classic and there's little doubt the dollar versions were going to pay more than the three buck single through the jolly. I did also have a couple of weirdo bits and pieces staked a while back, including a non-runner, a forgotten Ky Derby winner, and some smaller staked each way filth; but I was only rooting for one man here, Flavien Prat, Flightline's jockey.
The race had a clear shape to it - as clear as any race can given the comments made in the Sprint section above - and this one went with the script: Life Is Good, an extremely classy if one-dimensional front end brute, surged on with Flightline tailgating on the snaff. At the top of the stretch, with Irad Ortiz throwing the lot at Life Is Good, Prat asked his lad to lengthen: the verdict was instant.
Flightline bounded away, Life Is Good a fading shape in the rear view mirrors; the gallant trailblazer eventually eased out to fifth place, surpassed in the final quarter by all of Olympiad, Taiba and Rich Strike respectively. The final margin of victory was eight and a quarter lengths, taking Flightline's six-race career aggregate winning margin to 71 lengths! It's just a shame we won't see any more of him as he feels like he's only really getting started.
Epicenter, second betting choice, unfortunately sustained an injury, which has been successfully operated on since and, though he has been retired from racing, the prognosis is good that this super-consistent three-year-old - winner of the Grade 1 Travers and second in two Triple Crown races including the Kentucky Derby - will be able to take up stallion duties in due course.
After the Turf, I was able to watch this almost exclusively as a sporting event rather than a wagering one, and that was just great. I cashed the Pick 3, which didn't pay much ($123) but was a welcome contribution to the bottom line. In terms of that bottom line, buying a voucher and then keeping most winning tickets until the end (I did cash and 're-invest' the Cody chip) makes it easy to track profit and loss. I bought a $500 voucher on Friday, topped it up with $300 before racing on Saturday and didn't pay with 'folding' for a bet thereafter. So the $868 and pennies I cashed the winning tickets in for after the last represented a most improbable - and waffery-thin - positive outcome. Likewise on the UK books P&L:
Having published detailed thoughts on every race here, it was more the ignominy of sending so many geegeez readers inadvertently in the wrong direction that smarted most. Obviously, I bet within my parameters of comfort - though Saturday did take me away from the centre of that zone - but what is never comfortable for me is when I have publicly shared the name of a horse I think is worth betting: it's pressure I can't handle, truth be told. With luck, at least some of you will have found a way to the pay window through the weekend. [Regardless of how the results go, it's always the same - large - amount of labour to work through the form. Sometimes the effort is rewarded, often now. That's how it is, eh?]
I very much hope you enjoyed the Breeders' Cup show, especially the brilliant performances by the Euro squad - not just the winners but 'we' laid siege to the places as well - and that boyo in the Classic.
Matt
**
post script
A few things I learned, or about which I was reminded:
Short-priced horses habitually get beaten at the Breeders' Cup because the races are so deep. Doubling them up doesn't really make sense. [Note to self]
European horses seem to love Keeneland: they're 12/20 in the three Breeders' Cups here, the 6/7 this year bettering 4/7 in 2020 and 2/6 in 2015.
Betting race to race is emotionally challenging. The very best thing I did was to strike the majority of bets before the first. Whilst conceding the chance to scout the prices pre-race, it took emotion out of the thought process (but not the race watching process), leading to more reasoned wagers.
A little knowledge is a dangerous thing, especially in pursuit of a late night weekend winner!
**
COMPETITION TIME
I managed to bring a few souvenirs back with me and thought they'd make a nice raffle prize. As they say across the pond, here's what I got...
Click on the image to view full size
- Programmes from both Friday's and Saturday's meetings
- A Daily Racing Form for Friday's card
- Some Kentucky 'horse country' brochures
- A Breeders' Cup lanyard
- A Breeders' Cup tote bag
- Uncashed $1 win bet on Flightline
Plus three runners up prizes of an uncashed $1 win bet on Flightline
To be in with a chance to win, simply go here and enter your name and email. These details will ONLY be used to contact you for postal address if you're a winner. One entry per person. Duplicate entries will be disqualified. Good luck!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/MischiefMagic_JTS.png320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2022-11-08 09:51:262023-09-11 18:32:35Betting the Breeders’ Cup Rollercoaster
If you could find it possible for present-day owners and trainers of a more recent vintage than John Gosden or even in the US, Wayne Lukas, to have a blow-by-blow retrospective of the astonishing goings-on at the Keeneland Selected July Yearling sales in the 1980’s – long since abandoned in favour of augmenting the September auction - most would find plenty to shock them, writes Tony Stafford.
That decade was the era of the multi-million-dollar head-to-head battles over three days each feverishly hot summer. Although plenty of others squeezed in for the occasional lot, it was a test of strength principally between the Sangster team (Robert’s Vernon’s Pools cash; Vincent O’Brien’s exemplary training skills and John Magnier’s all-round horse expertise) and the Maktoum family members – four brothers fresh on the scene from Dubai.
It got to the stage where a single yearling sold to Sangster for 13.1 million dollars. I wasn’t in the auditorium that July, but it was possibly the year before when with the bright red legend “CRIBBER” emblazon above his lot number as he stood patiently on the stand – they don’t walk them round in Keeneland – the hammer fell on one colt at somewhere around $8 million.
I can never forget the legendary auctioneer Tom Caldwell, after recording the sale, saying: “I can officially say, that was a world-record price for a cribber!” No wonder, at any sale if they are not so designated beforehand, crib-biting is a stable vice which entitles the buyer to return the horse to its vendor.
The duels got so extreme that briefly there had to be a truce and a meeting where the Sheikh Mohammed camp and Sangster’s side agreed to consult each other rather than fight for the best ones. Nowadays that would be probable cause for a prosecution under some sort of fraud or restraint of trade law.
If ever there had been any friendly connection rather than a financial accommodation is doubtful and the Sheikh’s team quickly broke ranks.
By the time the next ownership generation of Michael Tabor and later Derrick Smith joined Magnier, Sangster having left the Coolmore ranks for Manton and sadly a relatively earth death, while Vincent O’Brien retired, replaced by the non-related Aidan O’Brien, you could detect a real enmity between the teams.
This probably was at its height at the time of the Mahmood Al Zarooni scandal, the former chief trainer for Godolphin, having usurped long-running Saeed bin Suroor in getting the best horses, was found to have doped 15 horses and was banned from training for eight years.
A story this summer revealed that Al Zarooni, now 45, was re-applying for a licence to train in Dubai and he still hopes – probably unrealistically – to have interests in the future with UK racing.
Al Zarooni states he didn’t use the banned substances while the horses were racing, just to treat various injuries. Most significant of the 15 was the 2012 St Leger winner Encke, who had denied Camelot the distinction of becoming the first horse since Vincent O’Brien’s Nijinsky in 1970 to complete the Triple Crown of 2,000 Guineas, Derby and St Leger by beating him narrowly at Doncaster. His departure left the way clear for his then assistant Charlie Appleby, to take over..
Now though, as the pictures showed after each of the Turf races at last weekend’s Breeders’ Cup meeting at Keeneland’s up-market race track, even if the old days of no race commentaries are long gone, the two main ownership groups in European racing are far from enemies.
I think I ought to modify that conclusion. When a Charlie Appleby-trained Godolphin horse wins a major race as three did at Keeneland, almost the first to congratulate him is Aidan O’Brien. Equally, the Coolmore owners – notably Michael Tabor – have warmed to Charlie and possibly for the first time, a Team Europe vibe was emanating from the winners’ circle.
On Friday as first Mischief Magic, for Godolphin (Juvenile Turf Sprint) and then Coolmore’s Meditate (Juvenile Fillies’ Turf) put the home challenge to bed emphatically, the two teams were seen exchanging congratulations.
The Godolphin ownership group was pretty much limited to Hugh Anderson, the group’s Chief Operating Officer and there was no sign of a Maktoum in the leafy paddock, where four decades ago the brothers used to scour the barns at the sales with such dedication.
Then when Ryan Moore on Victoria Road just edged out newly crowned UK champion jockey William Buick on Silver Knott by a nose in the Juvenile Turf, the respective greetings revealed just how much respect Messrs O’Brien and Appleby have for each other.
Three more winners on Saturday, the remarkable Modern Games for the second successive year in the Mile for Appleby/Buick; the Oaks winner Tuesday in the Filly and Mare Turf for O’Brien (Moore) and finally Rebel’s Romance, a four-year-old gelding for Appleby and James Doyle in the £4 million Turf over one and a half miles, showed them to be if not a team – a duopoly of mutual respect and friendship. The three winning jockeys are equally great friends as are Doyle’s mum Jacqui and Appleby’s mother Patricia, the pair often inseparable at the big meetings in the UK.
All that family affection left us with the Main course after some very tasty appetisers which I’m sure plenty of people afterwards missed celebrating with dinner in The Mansion, sadly now closed. That was Flightline, the horse we caught up with a month or so ago and now winner by eight and a half lengths in the Classic.
There have been some high-cost sacrificial objects in the history of horse racing but surely none has come close to Life Is Good, third favourite behind Flightline, the 4-9 favourite, a price that was pretty good value in the circumstances.
Winner by an average of 12 lengths through his five career starts, Flightline sat second on the flank of Life Is Good, himself a winner of nine of his 11 lifetime races before Saturday. Trainer Todd Pletcher was adamant his colt would race in his usual attacking fashion, and while the rest of the field set off a long way behind, Flightline and jockey Flavien Prat never wavered from trainer John Sadler’s plan.
In the straight they pulled alongside and with just a minimal adjustment in Prat’s urgings, he was away and gone. No Secretariat, but then again that great champion of the 1970’s had already ground the main opposition to dust before beating Sham by 31 lengths in the Belmont Stakes in 1973. Life Is Good faded to fifth in the closing stages. A more measured ride behind the favourite probably would have earned him the million-dollar second prize.
Now I need to recall an episode while staying for a few days in Virginia Payson’s – St Jovite’s owner’s - house on the shores of Long Island, New York. I was introduced during a well-attended racing and breeding-oriented party one night, thus. “Tony, this is Penny Chenery”. I can still picture her sitting demurely behind a desk. As Virginia moved away and we exchanged pleasantries, I asked: “Didn’t you own a good horse?”
“Oh, you must mean Secretariat!”
Can you imagine the embarrassment?
Well maybe Flightline isn‘t quite Secretariat, but on limited evidence – six runs for him against 21 (and 16 wins) in just 16 months for Big Red, with a Triple Crown, two Horse of the Year accolades and a world record time for a mile and a half in that iconic Belmont Stakes – he may not be that far off.
In those days, breeders tended to restrict stallions to around 40 mares a year. The top flat-race sires, even with the short covering season, nowadays can get close to 200, so with the chance of half a million a pop at least, the Flightline owners can expect to cop $100 million a year, as long as he is fertile, for everyone will want to come to see him at Will Farish’s Lane’s End farm, down the road from Keeneland, and try to produce a replica. I would still have preferred him to race on and truly prove his greatness against all-comers, but the decision to retire him had been made.
As an aside, what happened to the Japanese this year? Just Chain Of Love, well beaten in the Filly and Mare Sprint, for the land of the rising sun after their heroics last year.
Racing did continue over here where the most interesting happening was Mick Channon’s last day double, not just the last day of the 2022 turf season in the UK but the final day of Mick’s training career.
The former Southampton and England footballer can be counted as the most successful graduate from his initial sport to switch to training racehorses and over the 32 years he held a licence he sent out more than 2,500 flat winners in the UK and many more overseas as well as plenty over jumps.
He was unlucky not to win the Arc as his gallant horse Youmzain was successively second to Dylan Thomas - part-owner Michael Tabor believes he should have been disqualified in 2007; to the astonishing Zarkava as a five-year-old, and to Sea The Stars in a field of 19 in 2009.
Mick’s retirement leaves the way clear for younger son Jack to take over the famous West Ilsley yard, previously the base for the great Dick Hern and champions like Brigadier Gerard, Nashwan and Dayjur, possibly the UK’s unluckiest-ever Breeders’ Cup loser.
Jack was one of a dozen or so students on the latest BHA trainers’ module at the Racing School in Newmarket the week before last. Like several of his fellow students, he had to plead temporary absence to watch the stable’s horses go through the ring at the Tattersalls HIT sale that same week.
He shared the course – his final module as he’d done the first two, six then two years before – with AJ O’Neill, son of Jonjo and destined to share the licence at Jackdaw’s Castle with dad in the future, and Sean Quinn, son of John, the Malton trainer.
Others were Harry Derham, the latest aiming to exchange assistant trainer status with Paul Nicholls to a yard of his own in the future. One predecessor, Harry Fry, switched from jumps to the flat at Doncaster to win the November Handicap easily with Metier. Nicholls’ favourite bloodstock agent, Tom Malone, was also there, when not required to bid on one down the road at Tatts.
It was a shame that Saffron Beach was unable to take her place at the Breeders’ Cup, but her part-owner Ollie Sangster will not have minded too much as he starts training from Manton imminently having safely concluded his final module. He found time to skip school to acquire one or two from the horses in training sale to join the squad of regally-bred yearlings he picked up earlier in October.
Finally, Siobhan Doolan, daughter of former Irish jump jockey Kevin and granddaughter of my pal Wilf Storey, was also there, taking time off from her job as an underwriter in bloodstock insurance. She also found time to buy at the sale, picking up the three-year-old filly Shifter, a winner for Stuart Williams. Shifter has settled in at Grange Farm Stables in Co Durham and I bet, like Going Underground, a recent winner and then so unlucky last Friday at Newcastle, she will win before long!
As I said at the start. This racing game is all about family!
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/RebelsRomance_BreedersCupTurf_2022_Keeneland.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2022-11-07 07:49:562022-11-07 08:24:27Monday Musings: Happy Families in Keeneland
Last week I made a couple of trips to Newmarket sales where I marvelled at the seemingly never-ending stream of - mainly overseas - buyers keen to pick up second-hand UK and Irish thoroughbreds, writes Tony Stafford. Not just pick them up, but happy to pay handsomely for them.
The Australians set the pace and it was just two days after the Tattersalls Autumn Horses in Training sale ended with record receipts that the penny finally dropped.
As I waited for the afternoon’s high-class jumping at Ascot and Wetherby and Newmarket’s final day’s action of 2022 with a couple of Listed races, to begin, I had a quick look at the early results. Two Australian venues had been in operation, Flemington in Melbourne and Rosehill in Sydney as far as the newspaper was concerned – there are umpteen tracks going on Down Under all the time at a lower level of course that we never hear about.
There were results for nine races at Flemington, many of them Group events including two at G1 level, with the Victoria Derby and its first prize of £736k leading the way. The total of winners’ prizes alone, in Racing Post monetary calculation, was an eye-watering £2,360,000 so the total value of the races as the Spring Carnival continued, with the highlight being the Melbourne Cup tomorrow, would have been nearer £5 million.
The Post carried only three results from Rosehill, but the main race of the day, the XXXX Golden Eagle over seven furlongs, carried a full field of 20 runners. It comprised 18 Southern Hemisphere four-year-olds and two Northern Hemisphere three-year-olds having their first runs in Australia and accompanied to ride them by Jamie Spencer and Frankie Dettori.
The winner was a gelding called I Wish I Win (wishes can come true!), trained by Peter Moody, who had bought into the horse after his first three races (no wins) and ridden by Luke Nolen. The jockey, of course, is best known here for his narrow Royal Ascot win on Black Caviar ten years ago when he gave the great mare’s many backers a scare before getting the verdict, and he was again enjoying the best of a desperate finish at Rosehill Gardens.
Second, a nose behind, was the filly Fangirl, trained by Chris Waller and ridden by Hugh Bowman, the team behind the great Winx, who had by all accounts a successful birth recently after some difficult experiences at stud since her retirement from the track.
Talking about Royal Ascot, I had sat next to Waller at lunch a couple of hours before his outstanding sprinter Nature Strip obliterated the opposition in the King’s Stand Stakes on the opening day of the meeting. This was the 21st victory of his then 40-race career. He has won and been third in two more big sprints at home since returning to action this Australian spring.
The difference between victory and defeat has rarely been as stark as in this race, especially considering the cigarette paper thin margin. The winner’s prize was a massive £2,833,333 – second got £1,075,268, not bad but almost £2 million less than the winner! As to how Messrs Spencer and Dettori got on, Jamie will have been content with his sixth place, beaten barely two lengths on the former David Simcock-trained Light Infantry. Sixth prize was £94,086 for the colt now trained by the team of Ciaron Meyer and Englishman David Eustace.
Third to fifth were respectively £537,634, £268,817 and £134,408. Dettori was seventeenth on Welwas, previously with Jean-Claude Rouget in France. He and the trio finishing behind him, still picked up £5,376, more than the winners of the opening two-year-old maidens at Newmarket on Saturday and comfortably more than any of the seven Wolverhampton all-weather contests that evening.
Total money for the one race was a remarkable £5,270,000. The winner got almost half a million quid more than tomorrow’s Melbourne Cup hero, but there are umpteen European connections in the race that stops the nation. I make it that half the horses in the 24-runner line-up have emanated from the UK mostly, France or Ireland, and the favourite at 5/2 is trained by James Ferguson, son of former Godolphin king pin and now agent, John, and in just his third full season with a licence.
Ferguson’s representative is Deauville Legend, winner last time out of the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York. Again, one of only two three-year-olds in the field, he will be trying to emulate the 2018 winner, Cross Counter, trained by Charlie Appleby, who beat Hughie Morrison’s Marmelo after running a close second in the same York race that Deauville Legend won.
One familiar name is the five-year-old gelding Serpentine, two years after his surprise Derby win for Aidan O’Brien and Coolmore. Now a gelding, he ran a good second in a minor prep race at Flemington on Saturday. He carries 3lb less than the favourite!
We mentioned the other three-year-old, Hoo Ya Mal, last week. The Derby second to Desert Crown was sold for £1.2 million at the boutique Kensington Gardens auction on the eve of Royal Ascot. From then until his dispatch to Australia, Hoo Ya Mal was in the care of George Boughey, tasked to handle the colt’s preparation after the sale until his departure.
Occupants of properties in a town with restricted accommodation can be a moving feast. I’m pretty sure though that eight of tomorrow’s field are trained by young men (including Boughey), generally assistant trainers at the time, who shared a house owned in Newmarket by George Scott a few years back.
Boughey, Ed Crisford, Ferguson and the brothers David and Harry Eustace were all at one time common tenants in Scott’s house. Harry Eustace, 22 winners on his card this year on only his second full season, is not involved tomorrow save cheering on his brother, but the others are.
Crisford junior trains, with father Simon, the other long-time former Godolphin mainstay. He, unlike Ferguson senior, still has plenty to say in that operation although none of the father-son duo’s horses are in Godolphin ownership. Their runner, Without A Fight, is a five-year-old gelding, winner of seven of his 17 starts. He is a son of Teofilo, as was Cross Counter.
That takes us to three, but step forward David Eustace, elder son of former dual purpose trainer James. He and his co-trainer, the extravagantly attired Ciaron Maher, have five representatives in the line-up, one more than last year when fourth and sixth places earned £275k for the stable’s owners.
One man determined to be there was Richard Ryan, racing manager for Teme Valley, fresh from the win of Bayside Boy, owned in partnership with Ballylinch Stud, at 33/1 in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Champions Day at Ascot.
Requiring to be in Berkshire prevented Ryan’s presence in Australia for Numerian’s prep race in the Caulfield Cup in which he was a close fifth. Numerian, once with Joseph O’Brien, is now in the care of Annabel Neasham, one of the main buyers at last week’s sale. When asked whether she had an owner for one of her expensive acquisitions, she suggested there might be 200 potential owners champing at the bit! I bet some of her counterparts at Newmarket found that hard to take.
After Melbourne, of course, it’s off to the Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland, far from the favourite venue for my friend Harry Taylor who prefers some Californian heat at Santa Anita. Sorry mate, at least you have the chance to see the astonishing Flightline in the Classic. Baaeed’s fall from grace in the Champion Stakes at Ascot leaves the way clear for a coronation, US style, late on Saturday. It’s being shown on ITV 3 on both Friday and Saturday and will be well worth waiting up for. [The Classic is due off at 9.40pm, so not too late - Ed.]
The American horses trying, in vain most likely, to match Flightline in the Classic are being left to their own devices, and in the other dirt races, too, apart from some Japanese challenges. But in the turf contests they will hard pressed to keep the lid on what looks like a stronger European challenge than for some time. Kinross and Modern Games set a decent standard in the Mile, while Charlie Appleby looks to have a stranglehold on the Turf with Nations Pride and Rebel's Romance heading the market.
I pass on a humorous note about one rider going off to the meeting with an obvious chance. Jason Hart, who rode Safe Voyage at Keeneland in 2020, is pleased to take that experience with him for his ride on the remarkable Highfield Princess in the Turf Sprint. The three-time Group 1 winning five-year-old vies for favouritism with Wesley Ward’s speedball Golden Pal.
Hart won last week at Newcastle on the Wilf Storey-trained Going Underground, delighting owner Herbert Hutchinson in the process. When told Hart would be unable to ride him at Newcastle this Friday night as he was going to the US, Mr H asked can we not claim him? Afraid not Herbert, you’ll have to make do with Kevin Stott!
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/DeauvilleLegend_GreatVoltigeur_2022.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2022-10-31 08:31:562022-10-31 08:31:57Monday Musings: Down Under
This time next week the first five, of fourteen, Breeders' Cup races will be upon us. Friday is juvenile day, with nine older horse Championship races following on Saturday, and the action - both on track and in the betting - will be feverish.
One of the beauties of the Breeders' Cup is the convergence of US and European (and sometimes Japanese and South American) form, and the differences of opinion that British and American bettors have. With that in mind, what follows are four horses that look likely to shorten from their current prices and represent a bit of value a week from now.
Love Reigns (Juvenile Turf Sprint)
Wesley Ward has won this for the past three years and has just a single runner this time around. He puts his faith in Love Reigns, a fast starter who won over course and distance on her debut. She was a fine fourth to re-opposing Dramatised at Royal Ascot but didn't quite see out that demanding straight five with an uphill finish. Since returning to America, she's won again over the turning five and half furlong range in spite of taking a lead to the first turn.
All four winners of the Juvenile Turf Sprint have led all the way and, while she does face a couple of possible pace contenders in The Platinum Queen and Tyler's Tribe, she is likely to be very popular with the American betting public.
The Platinum Queen represents Britain and she's a fast filly, as demonstrated by her win in the Prix de l'Abbaye in receipt of chunks of weight against elders; but she has never raced around a turn before and that's a different ball game. It doesn't mean she can't handle a turn but her current price implies she definitely will. She only definitely might!
8/1 Love Reigns looks on the big side.
National Treasure (Juvenile)
Love him or hate him, Bob Baffert has a stranglehold on the juvenile colt dirt division, and is doubly represented here. He saddles the strong favourite, Cave Rock, who is unbeaten in three and stretched out to this trip for a comfortable five length Grade 1 win last time. And he also saddles the less exposed National Treasure, who chased Cave Rock home in that G1, the American Pharoah at Santa Anita.
There is a good chance that Cave Rock is just much the best, but even then something has to finish second and third, and National Treasure's Beyer speed figure is already the clear second pick in the race. He is entitled to improve on what will only be his third career start and was able to rate the pace set by Cave Rock meaning he's versatile in terms of run style. A horse called Hurricane J is unlikely to trouble the judge but he could be a pace spoiler for the favourite early on, and we don't know how the Baffert beast will cope with early contention: it might weaken his ability in the stretch.
Regardless, National Treasure looks over-priced in an each way context at 12/1 in a place.
Malathaat (Distaff)
Malathaat is only 3/1 but she perhaps deserves to be favourite for the Distaff. She's a dual Grade 1 scorer this season, has the highest speed figure in the field (jointly with Clairiere) and has never been out of the first three in seven tries at the nine furlong trip. She's unbeaten in three at host track Keeneland, including two at the trip, one of which was last time out by more than five lengths in a Grade 1. A half length third in last year's race, she's upped her game a length since then and - if she doesn't get too far back early in what might not be an especially rapidly run race - is the one to beat.
She's available at 3/1 with three places each way with one firm, even though of the eight pre-entries is already stated as having her first preference in another race.
Taiba (Classic)
This could simply be the Flightline show, that unbeaten colt recording some off the scale numbers this season in totally savaging his rivals. And I hope it will be just that, because he might be the best since Secretariat, which is to say the best for fifty years. His win in the Pacific Classic last time was preposterous: it was his first try at the Classic trip of ten furlongs and stamina was supposedly a doubt. He won that Grade 1 by 19 1/4 lengths with the Dubai World Cup winner in second and another seven lengths back to a legit G1 horse in third!
He's an absolute monster but... he has been fragile, as his five race - all carefully spaced apart - career implies. And his trainer, John Sadler, has had some shocking fortune in the Breeders' Cup: having saddled bundles of fancied horses, his sole triumph from 54 BC starters is the 2018 Classic winner, Accelerate. This will be Flightline's second venture outside southern California, an Achilles heel for many of his trainer's Breeders' Cup runners in the past. He was his least assured - though still much the best - on his previous foray out of state, in the Met Mile at Belmont. In fairness, it's unlikely even Sadler's bad ju-ju will stop this lad; but, again, something has to run second and third.
In that context, Taiba, another out of the Baffert barn, looks likely to shorten. A three-year-old unraced at two, Taiba is by rock hard Classic winner Gun Runner, and his sole heavy defeat was in the massive field Kentucky Derby. He was also a head second in the G1 Haskell before stepping forward to win by three lengths in the Penn Derby, a favoured Baffert Classic prep.
His price - 12/1 - is made mainly by Flightline of course, but also by a horse called Life Is Good, a need-the-lead speedball who has only raced beyond nine furlongs once, when failing to get home in the Dubai World Cup at this mile and a quarter range. In fairness, he's tough on the lead but I imagine he will be wilting in the stretch.
Epicenter - conditioned by Gun Runner's trainer, Steve Asmussen - looks more legitimate for the frame. He's a strong stayer and will be unhurried while the fireworks are lit ahead of him; but he cannot fill out second and third spots, and he's more exposed than Taiba (ten lifetime starts vs five). It doesn't look an especially deep Classic beyond those mentioned so, while there's an absolute superstar in there, 12/1 Taiba looks an each way multiple play on a potential shortener.
Good luck.
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/gunrunner.jpg431830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2022-10-28 08:31:442022-10-28 16:24:06Breeders’ Cup 2022: Four to back now
It's been a while since my last missive, mainly because after the last one the good lady and myself took ourselves off to St Ives to celebrate her milestone birthday, writes Dave Massey. You'll not want to hear stories about me traipsing around the coast, visiting art galleries and generally making out I'm far more cultured than I actually am; what you want to know is where I've been racing since I got back.
It started with my first visit to Plumpton this season, that coming on the Bob Champion Charity Raceday, a meeting I do try and get down to each year. Plumpton, like Fakenham, is one of those well-run country tracks where after about four visits, you know the crowd that go there on first-name terms. I love the place, full of genuine race enthusiasts that have their favourites. You can pretty much guarantee a roar going up every time a Chris Gordon or Gary Moore horse hits the front in the closing stages. The former had one winner on the day, the latter two, and I doubt very much that the bookmakers walked away winning.
I'm staying in a hotel in Horsham for a couple of nights, as Kempton and Fontwell are also on the agenda in the next two days. After a long drive down I'm really tired and fall asleep about half ten, only to be woken up around 12.45am as the fire alarm goes off. I'm on the top floor, right at the rear of the hotel, so quickly put trousers and a t-shirt on, grab the phone and wallet and get out as swiftly as possible.
However, I didn't put socks and shoes on, and am stood outside without either. What happens next is bizarre, to say the least; the potted version is a German woman took pity on me, gave me her dressing gown, chatted to me for 15 minutes before asking me my star sign to see if we'd be compatible, and then gave me her room number. I'm not making this up. I mean, I couldn't have looked any worse - disheveled without footwear in the early hours, hair all over the place, yet here we are. After being allowed back into the hotel (no fire, a sensor issue) you'll be pleased to hear, dear reader, I retired to my own room.
Tuesday. I decide, as I'm fairly near, to have an hour at Hove greyhounds before I set off for Kempton. It's depressing to tell you that there couldn't have been a dozen punters there. The place had all the atmosphere of a crypt. It's saying something when the evening Kempton meeting felt busy by comparison. Such a shame, as Hove used to be a really busy little place, even the afternoon meetings drawing enough to make playing the Tote worthwhile. No longer.
A change of plan. I'm supposed to be going to Fontwell on the Wednesday, but I've a share in one running at Worcester and the card, with three novice hurdles and a bumper, looks more appealing. So I set off from Horsham around 7.45 am in bright sunshine, but by the time I get to Worcester around 11.30 it's cold and cloudy and the wind is blowing.
My fallouts with the car park attendants at Worcester have been many over time, but on this occasion all goes smoothly and before you know it, I'm enjoying an early lunch. There aren't many bets to be had on the card, although I do like the giant (and wonderfully named, Trumpton fans) Cuthbert Dibble in the bumper and try a little each-way investment. Third place gets me a small profit back but he's definitely one you want to be taking forward. Lovely big chasing type, he'll do well once he sees some obstacles.
Sadly Blue Suede Shoes, the horse I've a small share in, doesn't complete and leaves us scratching our heads. Too green, or just not a racehorse? I've no doubt her next couple of runs will reveal a lot more.
Thursday. Southwell sees rain, lots of it. It's the usual crowd, and as they don't want to hang around outside between races, it is decided we will all bet to 15 minutes. This means no prices until fifteen minutes before the off, with all the books going up at the same time. This not only gives you time to get a cup of tea and a loo visit between races, but it gives a chance for the market to form properly.
So we open up fifteen minutes before the first. There is one, sole, woman punter in the ring. None of us are in a rush to get her business.
She comes over to me, and looks at the board. To the astonishment of us all, she announces...
"£300 number one, and £100 ew number three."
We all stand there, open-mouthed. What just happened there, then?
It turns out she's one of a party upstairs who have all chipped a fair amount of money into a pot and are basically betting whatever the majority go with. Number 1 wins, and she draws £1300 off us as a start. £300 is invested back and they keep a grand. Sadly for them, they barely back another winner and by the time the last comes around, funds have dwindled.
However, there's a twist. They have their last £300 as a £150 each-way bet on Superstar DJ at 28-1. When it romps home, you can hear the screams a mile away. Over £5k to draw. You have never seen a happier bunch of ladies and we're delighted to pay them out.
And so to the end of the week, and a return to the home of National Hunt. Yes, Cheltenham is back, and I'm working on the rails both days.
The Friday is a quiet day, despite plenty of runners, and there are few big bets flying around. The biggest I take is a £300 Music Drive in the novice hurdle at 13-8, but that stays in the satchel as Mofasa, who looked really well going to post, comes out on top despite a mistake at the last.
The rain just keeps a-fallin' even with the forecasts saying that it ought to have stopped around lunchtime; but Cheltenham, as we know from Champion Chase Day this year, has its own micro-climate and trying to guess the weather here is a game in itself. Two slip up on the Flat in the last and we all agree it's probably a good job there's no more racing on the day.
Saturday is busier. Some old familiar faces in the crowd including Cheltenham member Bridget, who always has her fiver with me. Good judge too, is Bridget, and after she's backed Shearer in the first I remark to her it's always the same old faces in the payout queue!
Things really get going in the handicap chase that follows but Lord Accord is an absolute skinner on my side of the book. Not one single person has backed it with me which, for a Cheltenham handicap, is remarkable. A total payout of £115 on the race on my side, with just the places to reimburse.
That means I can crack on with the next and here comes the money for Pied Piper. Plenty of £200 and £400 bets and they don't have much worry as he quickens clear after the last to win. This payout is bigger, but it's nowhere near as big as it is for Dad's Lad in the next.
Dad's Lad is one of those horses that the public latch on to in a big way. One in three bets I take is on the Mullins charge. The writing is on the wall from some way out as he cruises into contention and, although the winning margin is under a length, the result never really seemed in doubt. £3k to pay out and a bad result.
And of course, the tenners and twenties merchants all back the outsider of three in the novice chase, so Chemical Energy is no good either. Encanto Bruno wins the last as favourite and that puts the nail in the coffin for many of the books. The dark is already descending as we pack away; it's time to head home...
- DM
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Cheltenham_Rails_Bookmakers.jpg320826David Masseyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDavid Massey2022-10-26 08:37:472022-11-30 15:51:22Roving Reports: To Cheltenham, eventually
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