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All-Weather Analysis: Wolverhampton Racecourse

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It’s time to head to the Midlands for the final article in this all-weather series, writes Dave Renham, the course in focus being Wolverhampton racecourse. I will be using racing data from 1st January 2017 to 31st August 2022 which has been once again been taken from the Geegeez Query Tool. Therefore all profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price. We all know that we should be able to significantly improve upon the baseline figures of SP and I will share Betfair SP data if appropriate.

I have written about Wolverhampton before in regards to running style, so I will be sharing the new data from the past 11 months as well as comparing with the long term figures. I have not analysed the draw in any real depth before so we will start off by looking at the long term data (2017 onwards) and take it from there. For both sections, running style and the draw, my focus will be handicaps of eight or more runners only. This is in line with previous research in those areas, except for Southwell where I used seven runners-plus due to the small time frame examined.

Wolverhampton races take place on a tapeta surface; this was changed in 2014, before which they had used polytrack. Let’s start to dig...

Running Style at Wolverhampton

Wolverhampton 5f Run Style Bias

First a look at the minimum trip of 5f. Here are the run style splits in 8+ runner handicaps covering the time since my last article (1st Oct ’21 to 31st Aug ’22):

 

 

In the past 11 months, front runners have triumphed in 13 of the 37 races which equates to 35% of all qualifying races. N.B. In some races, two horses have challenged for the early lead hence the 25.49% figure in the graph.

The A/E* indices for this recent time frame correlate positively (see below):

 

 

*A/E, or Actual vs Expected, is a measure of the profitability of an angle based on starting prices. Further details on A/E, PRB and all our metrics can be found here.

Going back to 2017 and taking the last six years as a whole (up to 31/8/22), front runners / early leaders have won just over 20% of the races (A/E 1.48). Meanwhile prominent racers have won around 12% races (A/E 0.91), so the long term figures suggest the front running bias is strong, and the recent data backs that up. Essentially, if your horse races midfield or near the back early, it is at quite a disadvantage.

Now, I rarely look at non-handicap data but if we look at the non-handicap 5f run style results since 2017 we get a very similar picture:

 

 

Arguably the bias is even more potent in non-handicaps, where there is likely an ability bias: those at the back will often not have the talent to get to the front! However, what we can say is that 5f races offer a strong front running bias in all races, not just handicaps. Backing all front runners in handicaps would have yielded a huge 70p in the £ return over the past six seasons, had the crystal ball been fully functional!

 

Wolverhampton 6f Run Style Bias

Onto 6f now and the run style splits from 1/10/21 to 31/8/22. There have been 56 races in this short amount of time so a decent sample:

 

 

There clearly has been a bias to horses that lead early or race prominently over six furlongs. The long term stats (back to 2017) correlate with this recent data, although the figures are not quite as strong, with front runners winning 14% and prominent racers 12% (mid div 8%, held up 7%).

Of course, we know predicting the front runner in a race is far from an exact science, but let us assume you were clairvoyant and had predicted all front runners since 2017 in 6f handicaps (8+ runners); in that notional case, there would have been a profit to SP of £117.80 for £1 level stakes which equates to returns of just over 22p in the £. Amazingly, backing all prominent racers would also have secured a profit.

Over 6f in handicaps therefore, a prominent pitch / early leading position is ideal, all other things being equal.

 

Wolverhampton 7f Run Style Bias

Onto the recent 7f handicap figures:

 

 

There is quite an even split here with three of the run styles, though hold up horses remain at a clear disadvantage. I think it is worth comparing these run style percentages with those from 1/1/17 to 30/9/21 to check on the correlation:

 

 

Essentially the correlation is positive: hold up horses have definitely had a tough time of it, although the long term stats suggest their chances are better than the most recent data indicated. Overall at this 7f trip I would probably look to avoid genuine hold up horses.

 

Wolverhampton 1 mile+ Run Style Bias

Once we get to longer distances a prominent run style seems to be very slightly favoured, but essentially I would not advocate using run style analysis in these races.

 

The Draw at Wolverhampton

All races are run on the round course, with the 7f distance starting from a chute:

 

 

Wolverhampton 5f Draw Bias

A look at the minimum trip first. There have been close to 250 qualifying races in this time frame so a huge sample. Here are the draw splits going back to 2017 for 8+ runner handicaps:

 

 

Low draws seem to have a solid edge from a win perspective. Let’s see whether the percentage of rivals (PRB) data backs this up:

 

 

These figures suggest that this is a playable draw bias. Also this bias has proved to be consistent year in, year out. Here are the PRB figures for both the bottom and top thirds of the draw broken down by year:

 

 

As we can see, low draws had yearly figures varying from 0.52 to 0.58; high draws from 0.40 to 0.46. In each individual year low drawn horses have clearly enjoyed a good edge over their high drawn counterparts.

In conclusion, I would always favour lower draws over higher ones. Of course we need to take run style into account too, so with that in mind here is the draw and run style heat map for 5f handicaps (PRB figs):

 

 

This map illustrates that run style is a more potent indicator than draw, as front runners can win from anywhere including high. However, the remaining run styles when drawn high have a very poor time of it; especially horses racing in mid-division or near the back early.

 

Wolverhampton 6f Draw Bias

There have been 359 races since 2017 so an even bigger sample. Here are the draw splits in terms of win percentage:

 

 

This looks a much more even playing field than it did over 5f. How about the PRB figures – what extra insight do they give us?

 

 

It seems that high draws are again at a disadvantage. Low and middle draws are essentially on a par with each other.

Digging a little deeper, if we combine the four lowest stalls in every race it gives us a combined strike rate of 10.7% (A/E 0.87). Backing all of those draws in every race would have yielded a loss of 15p in the £ to SP. Combining draws 10 to 13 has given a strike rate of just 5.1% (A/E 0.69) and would have produced losses of 40p in the £. Hence, it seems that daws 1 to 4 are twice as likely to win as draws 10 to 13. Something to be aware of when the field size gets to double figures for all that it's not a profitable angle in itself.

The key takeaway here is perhaps the negative draw bias in relation to the highest third.

 

Wolverhampton 7f Draw Bias

Up another furlong and the number of races keeps increasing. This time there are nearly 400 races in the sample:

 

 

High draws are marginally worse off again and, once again, the PRB figures support the contention that there is a slight negative bias here with high numbers definitely worse off:

 

 

The highest draws (10 or bigger) have a PRB figure of just 0.42. Hence, it should be no surprise when we get to the two biggest field sizes (11 or 12 runners) that the top third PRB figure is a relatively lowly 0.43. In general, then, I would probably ignore horses from double figure draws unless I feel they have a clear edge over the rest of the field or can get to the front without burning too much gas.

Once we get to races of over 1 mile the draw is extremely level; in these races you can disregard the draw completely.

 

Wolverhampton Draw Summary

At Wolverhampton in 8+ runner handicaps, the draw is material at distances up to and including 7f with very high draws at a disadvantage, while low draws are definitely best over five furlongs.

 

Trainers at Wolverhampton

Nearly 3500 races going back to 2017 means we have a huge chunk of trainer data to drill down into.  Below are the trainers who have secured a win strike rate of 14% or more from a minimum of 150 runs (ALL race types included):

 

 

All-weather stalwarts Haggas, Gosden and Varian all have strike rates in excess of one win in every four runs. Let’s look at these three yards in more detail.

 

William Haggas at Wolverhampton

Haggas' Wolves runners performance based on run style is worth sharing. His front runners and prominent racers have combined to win over 40 races and secure a strike rate of a hefty 43.1%; while his midfield and hold up horses have won just 11 races from 78 (SR 14.1%).

Other key findings are that Haggas has proved profitable to SP with horses sent off both as favourites and second favourites (ROIs of 9% and 13% respectively); and he has produced a strike rate of 36% when teaming up with jockey Tom Marquand. A return of 11p in the £ for this pair is playable. Finally, Haggas has a better record in non-handicaps where his runners have essentially broken even; his handicappers on the other hand have lost 23p in the £.

 

John (and Thady) Gosden at Wolverhampton

Over the past six seasons there has been good consistency shown by the Clarehaven yard of the Gosdens. Looking at the yearly win and each way strike rates show this:

 

 

From a win perspective every year has been 20% or higher; for each way purposes (win and placed combined) Team Gosden has hit 50%+ in five of the six seasons. Indeed, the 2017 figure of 44.74% is still commendable.

It should also be noted that 96.5% of all their winners have come from the top three in the betting. Horses 4th or bigger in the betting have a poor record with just 2 wins from 40 (SR 5%). Their 2yos have just about sneaked into profit, while their non-handicappers have broken even, give or take.

Finally, there is one negative to share: Gosden hold up horses have won just 15% of the time, losing an eye-watering 44p in the £.

 

Roger Varian at Wolverhampton

Roger Varian has just about sneaked into profit to SP which is impressive. Here are his strongest stats:

  1. When Varian books Jack Mitchell to ride they have combined to win 24 of the 72 races (SR 33.3%) for a profit of £49.13 (ROI 68.2%)
  2. Over 60% of his 3yo's have won or placed. Backing them all to win would have secured a return of 19p in the £
  3. His strike rate with fillies and mares (female runners) has been higher than his strike rate with male runners. The ladies have secured a profit of £22.66 (ROI +28.3%)
  4. His win and placed strike rate has exceeded 50% in all six seasons
  5. Horses that raced prominently have won over 35% of the time

 

Trainer Comparison: Wolverhampton vs Other All-Weather Tracks

Before moving away from trainers, I'd like to do something a little different compared to previous articles. Below is a table comparing trainer strike rates and A/E indices at Wolverhampton with the same trainer's combined strike rate at the other five UK all-weather courses (Chelmsford, Kempton, Lingfield, Newcastle, Southwell). To qualify, each trainer has had at least 100 runners at Wolverhampton and at least 200 runners when combining the other five courses.

I have highlighted in green all A/E indices of 1.00 or more (strong positive); all indices 0.7 or lower are in red (strong negative). For context, the overall average A/E index for all trainers is 0.86, therefore any trainer between 0.92 and 0.99 I have highlighted in blue as I see these figures as a decent/positive mark.

 

 

It is interesting to note that most trainers have quite similar strike rates and A/E indices when comparing the Wolverhampton form with the wider all-weather circuit. Only Alan King seems to be a trainer who performs far better at Wolves than he does at other all weather courses combined, and that may very well be coincidence.

 

Jockeys at Wolverhampton

I'm not going to go into great detail about jockeys here, but I thought it worth sharing the riders who have secured an A/E index in excess of 1.00 at the course (100+ rides). Below is a graph detailing their win and win & placed (each way) strike rates at the course:

 

 

In order to prevent the data overlapping I have rounded the strike rates to the nearest whole number; I would see it as a positive if any of these jockeys was on board a horse I fancied at Wolves.

 

Wolverhampton Gender bias

We have seen a gender bias at each of the all-weather courses studied to date; here are the figures for Wolverhampton:

 

 

Once again males have the edge in all departments: Win%, ROI%, A/E and IV.

Females hold their own when comparing gender data from the top three in the betting, something we have seen at the other all-weather courses: specifically, male A/E index is 0.87, female 0.86; and SP returns show a difference between the two of just 1p in the £.

But males tend to outperform females at bigger prices – again, this is a pattern we have seen before.

 

Wolverhampton market factors

Let's now look at the win strike rates for different positions in the betting; starting with favourites and moving down to position 7th or more:

 

 

Favourites and second favourites have proved to be the best value as the A/E indices show:

 

 

Favourites have only lost 5.5p in the £ to SP; second favourites 9p in the £. At Betfair SP, favourites would have lost you 2p in the £ after commission, second favourites just a tiny loss of 0.5p in the £. Hence the top two in the betting seem to require close scrutiny here.

 

Sire Performance at Wolverhampton 

Next we'll examine some sire data. Here are the top 20 sires in terms of strike rate since 2017. (To qualify – 100 runs or more; and must have had runners somewhere in the UK during 2022):

 

 

We have seen many of these in other top AW course lists such as Sharmardal, Dubawi, Frankel, and Lope De Vega to name but four. Kingman heads the list here and he has a good spread of different winners, rather than one or two horses dominating his statistical profile. In fact, 28 different horses (for his 30 wins in total) have won for him as their sire. Likewise, Dubawi has had numerous different winners: 39 different horses winning his 42 races.

In terms of damsires here are the top 10 in terms of strike rate:

 

 

It is promising to see all ten damsires with A/E indices of 1.00 or more. It is also slightly surprising to see eight of the ten in profit to SP. I'm not sure whether this will be kept up in the long term but it is interesting to say the least! This winter I think it is worth noting any runner whose damsire appears in this table; I would see it as a positive.

 

Wolverhampton Horses for courses

My final port of call as always is to look at some horses that have excelled at the course since 2017. To qualify for the list they must have won at least four races at the track with a strike rate of 25% or more. Further, they must have raced somewhere in the UK in 2022. Here are the horses that qualify, listed alphabetically. I have included a PRB column too (Percentage of rivals beaten):

 

 

Just the ten horses on the list, and one of the ten, Cappananty Con, switched trainers some time back and has not raced at Wolves for three years, so that is worth bearing in mind. If any of the horses in the list appear at Wolverhampton this winter, they are worth a second glance for sure.

 

Wolverhampton Key Takeaways

Before winding up, let's look at the main takeaways for Wolverhampton:

  1. In 5f handicaps (8+ runners) front runners have a good edge from a run style perspective. They seem to have an even stronger edge in non-handicaps
  2. In 6f handicaps (8+ runners) front runners and prominent racers clearly outperform horses that race mid-pack or are held up at or near the back early
  3. In 7f handicaps (8+ runners) hold up horses have a poor record and are at a disadvantage
  4. Low draws have an advantage over 5f; the highest draws have a relatively poor record
  5. In 6f and 7f handicaps (8+ runners) it is a disadvantage to be drawn in a double figure stall
  6. In terms of trainers, Haggas and Varian are two to generally keep on the right side
  7. Male runners outrun female runners in general. However, when looking at the front end of the market there is little between them
  8. Favourites and second favourites have performed slightly above the norm
  9. Progeny of Kingman have a very strong record at the track
  10. Refuse To Bend, Iffraaj, Dark Angel, Kingmambo, Montjeu, Street Cry, Zamindar, Exceed And Excel, Cape Cross and Dubawi are damsires whose horses have performed well here

*

And that's all of the tracks analysed. I hope you have found this all-weather series informative.

Next time, I’ll be looking at National Hunt trainers, starting with one at the very top of his game.

- DR

Monday Musings: Anightinlambourn

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When the Ben Pauling-trained mare Anightinlambourn battled bravely up the Cheltenham hill to win her third chase from her last four starts for the Ben Pauling stable, it might have been seen as an omen, writes Tony Stafford. Certainly so, that is, by two handlers (unlike Ben) who train in the Valley and who had fancied later runners on that middle Saturday of the big Paddy Power Gold Cup meeting.

The first has been a licence holder for almost four decades since the 1984-5 season and, before that, assistant to a great champion for another six of his ten years’ training apprenticeship. The other, who has had his yard in Lambourn for 11 years, has spent it honing a method where jumping-bred animals are produced and developed with the principal, nay almost single-minded, aim of turning them into high-class steeplechasers.

The first of our two heroes, as heroes they are, is Oliver Sherwood, Grand National-winning trainer, and now in his late 60’s and happily free of the malignant cancer that threatened to curtail his life last year. Now the smile is back, the drawn features are a vague, lost figment of the imagination and winners are rolling again.

From an Essex farming family, Oliver is the son of hunting enthusiast Nat and brother of Simon, General Manager and Clerk of the Course at Ludlow and, for a never-to-be-forgotten while, rider of the peerless Desert Orchid, on whom he won ten races, nine in succession before the grey fell at Aintree in their last race together.

It’s almost 25 years since such as Large Action, owned by Brian Stewart-Brown, helped Sherwood onto the top table of jump trainers alongside his fellow former Fred Winter assistant, Nicky Henderson. More recently he won the 2015 Grand National with the eight-year-old Many Clouds for his main patron, the late Trevor Hemmings, Mr Aintree in succession to Ginger McCain, Red Rum’s trainer.

Halfway between those times, a young army officer was serving in Iraq, but he emerged from that experience with a resolve. Jamie Snowden had always been interested in riding and horses. It was as a serving officer that he managed to weave a reputation as the best military rider of his era. His frequent wins at the Grand Military meeting at Sandown every March made him the ideal man to trust to build a betting bank for the Cheltenham Festival the following week.

It helped that at this point he spent time as an assistant with Paul Nicholls, who provided some of the Sandown winners and he was also a prolific winner of point-to-points.

Later he joined Henderson, a while after Charlie Longsdon had left to start training and it was for Charlie that Snowden partnered the winner of the most valuable race of his riding career. He had ridden the 10-year-old gelding Kerstino Two to three wins in succession – the horse’s first three starts after coming under Longsdon’s care – and they finished in the money the next twice.

Then, on January 6, 2007, at Sandown Park, they lined up for the £25k to the winner Ladbrokespoker.com Handicap Chase. They won by three lengths with Mr J Snowden claiming five pounds making the most of that military races experience to beat the 9/4 favourite, Preacher Boy, ridden by a certain A P McCoy. Then in turn came Noel Fehily, Tom O’Brien, Seamus Durack, Ruby Walsh, Paddy Merrigan, Daryl Jacob (claiming 3lb), and Charlie Studd. Paddy Brennan, Sam Thomas and Timmy Murphy all pulled up in completing the rollcall.

Both Longsdon and Snowden had moved on by the time Ray Tooth’s Punjabi had joined Henderson and, while he was winning his Champion Hurdle and a couple of Irish Grade 1 races, Ben Pauling and Tom Symonds had filled the role as joint-assistants.

By then, Jamie, with the serious riding just about out of his system, had set up at Folly House in Upper Lambourn. By Saturday at Cheltenham, I make it he had trained a total of 335 domestic winners, and Jamie Snowden Racing Ltd has completed the clean sweep of training winners at every UK jumps course.

Win number 335 was the most valuable prize and easily the race with the biggest prestige of his career to date. It was the £90k to the winner Paddy Power Gold Cup, the feature of the entire three days, which he took with well backed 5/1 shot Ga Law.

As befits an army man, the road to the Paddy Power was planned with (almost) military precision – he did think that maybe three weeks between a comeback after 600 days off and running back in such a big race might entail the risk of the dreaded “bounce”. Well, the only bounce was the way Ga Law jumped the formidable Cheltenham fences under Johnny Burke and they had more than enough to hold off the challengers coming up the hill.

For a six-year-old on only his ninth career start, this was an exceptional performance and the French-bred gelding, like all Jamie’s carefully sourced young horses, has a pedigree to match his ability.

Johnny Burke was also on our other equine star of the show and when I say star, I have no doubt that is exactly what Queens Gamble is destined to be. She had already shown herself to be well above average on her only previous start, also at Cheltenham at the April meeting, when I think it’s fair to say she caught her trainer slightly unawares, for as he says he never fully winds up his bumper horses on their debuts.

Queens Gamble is a daughter of Getaway from a winning mare which the owners raced with Jessica Harrington. She in turn was a daughter of Hawk Wing, favourite for both the 2,000 Guineas and Derby of 2002 but second in turn to stable-mates Rock Of Gibraltar and High Chaparral, although he did win Group 1 races at two, three and four.

He didn’t produce anything like the 137-rated horse he was by the time of his retirement, but he was always slightly quirky and the fact he eventually was sent as a stallion to Korea tells its own story.

If Queens Gamble looked good last April, on Saturday the performance was even better as this is always a high class mares’ bumper. She drew easily eight lengths clear of the previous winner of the race, the unbeaten (in three) Fergal O’Brien mare Bonttay and the rest of a deep field.

As with Frankel late in Sir Henry Cecil’s career, and this year Desert Crown, the Derby winner for Sir Michael Stoute, there is no reason why Oliver Sherwood should not take charge of the best he’s had in his later years as a trainer, such is his wealth of experience and career-long success. All that’s missing really is that title!

I certainly remember calling him something in his riding days, way back in the early 1970’s. Then, the Sporting Chronicle was the northern-based racing daily in competition with the Sporting Life, the main paper in the rest of the country. Both had naps tables and I was in the Chronicle list.

Coming to the Kempton pre-Cheltenham meeting – the competition ended a few weeks later – I had a long lead in the 70-strong field, but halfway through the meeting, I thought I recognised a name of one of the winners.

The horse was called Balmer’s Combe, ridden by Oliver Sherwood. It won at 66/1 (having opened at 14’s!) and sure enough the tipster in fourth, Teddy Davis of the Chester Chronicle, had made it his nap. I only ever saw him at the big meetings and, obviously, at Chester, and it wasn’t until that May when I asked him about it.

"It was all a mistake", he said. "I was told Oliver Sherwood would have a winner that day. It was trained by Fred Winter, but then it became a non-runner. He’d picked up a spare ride on a no-hoper, trained by Richard Mitchell, so I assumed that must be the horse. There were a couple of non-runners and a few fallers, so he won!" I couldn’t hold it against Teddy who was a lovely old boy, obviously long gone; but that Sherwood!

Having expected a big run from Queens Gamble, on whom Johnny Burke didn’t need to be as vigorous as on Ga Law, I was delighted when she came up the hill clearly in a class of her own. She’s the real deal!

There was predictability about the rest of the day, notably an Irish double initiated by the well-backed Banbridge, who floated over the fences and cantered clear for Joseph O’Brien in the competitive Arkle Trial for novice chasers. Then there was a trademark gamble landed with ease by Tony Martin via Unanswered, living up to his name in a one-sided stayers’ handicap hurdle.

The Irish, as ever, are coming, but two stout Englishmen based in Lambourn will be doing their utmost to see them off this winter, in a race or two at any rate.

- TS

All-Weather Analysis: Southwell Racecourse

/in /by

The all-weather track at Southwell racecourse was re-laid from fibresand to tapeta in the spring/summer of 2021, and racing resumed on 7th December 2021. Hence, for this sixth track in my all-weather analysis series, I will be using racing data from 7th December 2021 to 30th September 2022, writes Dave Renham. This gives us relatively limited data at this stage (293 races in total) but it will still be interesting to see what shows itself. My race data collection has once again been taken solely from the Geegeez Query Tool and therefore all profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price. I will include Betfair SP data when it is worth sharing.

Personally I liked the old fibresand surface as it offered some playable biases, but there’s no point dwelling on the past! Let’s start digging into the future, and the tapeta numbers.

Running Style at Southwell

For running style data I only examine handicaps and usually handicaps of 8 or more runners. For this piece, however, I am going to use 7 or more runners just to give us a little extra data to work with.

Southwell 5f Run Style Bias

Let’s start as usual with the minimum trip of 5f. It is a straight five at Southwell; the only distance raced on the straight course there. Here are the run style splits for the new tapeta surface (40 races):

 

 

Front runners have certainly had the best of it to date, and by some considerable margin. 40 races is usually enough to start building up a picture. The A/E indices correlate strongly as one would expect:

 

 

If these types of figures continue in the coming months, Southwell’s 5f trip will become one of the most potent front running biases on the sand.

I also thought it would be a good idea to work out the Percentage of Rival Beaten (PRB) figures for each run style in these 5f handicaps. These were manually calculated and an explanation of them can be found in my first Dundalk article.

Here are the PRB splits:

 

 

These correlate positively with the earlier two sets of stats. The beauty of PRB is that it includes all runners in all races, which creates a much bigger data pool. All things considered, I am confident there is currently a strong front-running bias in 5f handicaps on this new surface at Southwell.

 

Southwell 6f Run Style Bias

Onto 6f now and this is the first distance run around a bend.

 

 

Front runners continue to have a good edge according to the win percentages, although it doesn't seem to be as potent over this extra furlong. 41 races in the sample so similar to the 5f data shared earlier. A look at A/E indices next:

 

 

There is a positive correlation with the A/E indices and the win percentages once more. PRB figures now:

 

 

Front runners have a decent edge using this ‘measure’ once again, while the other three running styles are all around the same mark. All three data sets are giving a positive edge for front runners, and I am hopeful this trend will continue over the winter. There does not seem too much to choose between the other three running styles.

 

Southwell 7f Run Style Bias

There have been 32 handicaps with 7+ runners over this trip since the re-laying so the smallest sample to date. Here are the figures in tabular form:

 

 

As can be seen, front runners have not enjoyed the advantage over this 7f trip. Indeed I worked out their PRB figure and it is very low at 0.43. It is a smallish sample so I would not want to be making sweeping conclusions just yet, but my gut feel is that front runners are not the way to go at this trip. Currently run style is not a factor I would consider too deeply over this distance at Southwell.

 

Southwell 1m Run Style Bias

A quick look at the 1 mile handicap data:

 

 

There is very little between each group now in reality at this trip of 1 mile and, so far, it looks to play very fairly.

 

To finish this section I will combine all longer trips together into one group.

 

Southwell 1m3f+ Run Style Bias

This gives us just under 60 handicap races to breakdown:

 

 

Front runners over these distances have a poor record, while the best approach seems to be held up early.

It appears at this stage, therefore, that in terms of run style at Southwell, we have two main trips to focus on. Five furlongs, where the front running bias looks very strong, and six furlongs, where the front running bias is significant enough to be of interest. Also, when we look at 1m 3f+ races, it could pay to avoid front runners while potentially keeping an eye on hold up horses. 

 

The Draw at Southwell

Here is the Southwell racecourse map.

 

 

It is a 10f oval circuit with a 5f straight track. Let’s now drill down into the draw data:

 

Southwell 5f Draw Bias

The shortest distance first and, as mentioned, the only straight track race distance. Here are the splits since the course was re-laid to tapeta:

 

 

These stats potentially suggest that low draws may enjoy a very small edge, and if we look at the win and placed stats combined, this starts to look a more likely scenario:

 

 

In order to hopefully confirm that there has been a low draw bias of some description, we need to see the percentage of rivals beaten (PRB) data.

 

 

I think this underlines the fact that lower draws have had a tangible edge to date. Also, if you ringfenced stalls 1 to 4, their combined PRB figure stands at an even higher 0.57. The most successful stall has been the lowest one (draw 1) – this draw has seen its runners produce a huge PRB figure of 0.66.

It is also worth noting that if you had backed all low drawn runners in every qualifying 5f handicap you would have made a profit of around £19.00 to £1 level stakes equating to a return of around 12p in the £.

It is still early days, but the signs are we may have a low draw bias to try and take advantage of. The old 5f stats on the fibresand also favoured low which I guess may give us further confidence in these initial findings.

 

Southwell 6f Draw Bias

Here are the draw splits for the 6f trip:

 

 

Middle draws potentially fare best. How about the PRB figures?

 

 

There is nothing in it on PRB, which is the most accurate measure of potential draw bias. The A/E indices for each third are within 0.1 of each other, too, so taking all data into account it seems 6f is a level playing field so far from a draw perspective.

 

Southwell 7f Draw Bias

Onto 7f now and, like the 6f trip, they race around a single lefthand bend.

 

 

This race sample of 32 is the smallest to date and although these figures suggest middle draws are being squeezed a little, I personally don’t think there is anything significant going on here draw wise. The PRB figures will shed more light:

 

 

As we can see, middle draws don’t seem at a disadvantage after all. Low draws may have a slight edge but I would like to see another year’s worth of data to see if this is actually the case. It looks pretty fair at this stage.

 

Southwell 1m Draw Bias

Nothing to report over 1 mile really. The 30 races have seen 10 wins for low draws, 9 for middle and 11 for high.

Time to move away from the draw – it seems a level playing field from 6f upwards. As stated earlier, there may possibly be a small low draw bias over 5f.

From this point on I will be looking at ALL races, not just 7+ runner handicaps.

 

Trainers at Southwell

Clearly, recent data is going to be limited for trainers. Indeed just seven trainers have saddled 50 or more runners in this time frame. My starting point will therefore be to look at pre-tapeta data; specifically, reviewing fibresand trainer stats going back to 2016. Here are the top trainers from that period (minimum 70 runs; win SR% 13% or more):

 

 

From here I am going to focus on the top six trainers in terms of strike rate and look at their record over the past year to see if we can glean anything. Here are my findings:

 

 

The first thing to say is that there are limited data for all six trainers. However, the figures for the Balding and Barron’s stables look promising – they are in the same sort of ballpark as before. The others are below par although Karl Burke has had five second places and if, say, two of those had won his figures would be close to pre-tapeta levels. Likewise, if two of Archie Watson’s four seconds had won he, too, would be back to the 22% win SR.

Tim Easterby’s figures are slightly more concerning but it is still early days, so best to wait another year at least to see if his form picks up (Note: After this piece was researched Tim Easterby saddled two winners on 9th Oct 2022 at 9/1 and 40/1!)

Keeping with the Easterby family, the David and Mick Easterby stable have saddled 10 winners from 30 runners in the last year producing returns of 91p in the £. Their 2016 to 2021 fibresand data on the other hand produced just 9 winners from 148 runners. There are some racing statistics that simply cannot be explained!

Before moving on I thought it might be worth comparing the PRB figures for the six trainers across the two time frames. At least this way we get slightly more detailed data for the last year:

 

 

The figures for the last year are around what I would have expected for five of the trainers given what we knew from the fibresand days. It seems, though, that Karl Burke’s recent figures are not so different after all.

The three Bs of Balding, Barron and Burke are stables that are likely to go well in the coming months. I would not write off the other three yet – we need a few more runs in the sample for them I feel.

 

Jockeys at Southwell

I’m not going to go into great detail here due to the limited data, but one jockey who has started well since the resurfacing is Daniel Muscutt. At time of writing, he has ridden 13 winners from just 49 rides (SR 26.5%) for a profit of £32.51 (ROI +66.3%). What impresses me more than his bare stats is that he has ridden winners for 11 different stables. Hence there is no trainer bias going on here. Time will tell whether he can keep up this hot streak.

Before moving on, Ben Curtis and Clifford Lee both had excellent fibresand stats going back to 2016. Between them to date they have had only 32 rides between them on the new surface, so too early to tell whether they will maintain their high performance level in the future.

 

Southwell Gender bias

We have seen a gender bias at each of the all-weather courses I have studied so far. Here are Southwell’s tapeta figures:

 

 

For this angle, we have a decent data set and it seems the gender bias is occurring here, too. I also checked out the PRB figures and males have an edge of 0.514 to 0.468.

When we have another year’s worth of results I personally will dig a bit deeper into specific areas like market or distance / gender data.

 

Southwell Market factors

Time for a look at the win% strike rates for different positions in the betting; starting with favourites and moving down to position 7th or more:

 

 

Second favourites have performed above the norm so far but I would expect the 24.5% win SR% to drop to around 20% in time. Favourites are about par losing around 9p in the £ to SP.

A look at market rank A/E indices next:

 

 

These are a bit up and down, but this is almost certainly down to the fact we have less than a year's worth of data. The favourite figure, however, is approximately what we might expect.

Over time I would expect these figures to mirror other courses and, hence, I would focus most of my attention on the top five in the betting despite the mixed data we see above.

 

Sire Performance at Southwell

The data set for sires is really limited. Only eight sires have had 50 or more runners. We will need to wait at least two more years to start seeing any potential patterns. Damsire data is similar with just five damsires having 50 runs or more.

 

Southwell Horses for courses

Once again our data is limited for this section. One horse has actually won four times (from 9 starts) in the last year and that is Back From Dubai. He won four on the bounce in the early part of 2022, but since then is 0 from 4, his handicap mark taking a deserved hike in the process. Daafy is 3 from 8 (PRB 0.77) and Fine Wine is also 3 wins from 8 starts (PRB 0.67).

 

Southwell Takeaways

To conclude, despite there only being roughly a year of racing on the new surface we do have some key takeaways.

There looks to be a strong front running bias over 5f in handicaps.

At 6f, front runners also have an edge, although not as powerful as the 5f one.

Back to 5f, there is potentially a slight low draw bias, and it will be interesting to see how that plays out this winter.

Males outperform females as we have seen at all other all weather tracks, while favourites have produced a par performance.

Trainers wise, the Balding and Barron yards - as well perhaps as Karl Burke - are worth generally keeping on side.

 

That's all for this piece. I'll be back next week with the final chapter, looking at Dunstall Park, better known as Wolverhampton Racecourse.

- DR

Roving Reports: Pastures New

/in /by

Whilst some members of the Geegeez staff have been halfway around the world to watch the Breeders Cup in the last fortnight, others of us have been to such luxury destinations as *checks notes* Hereford, Ludlow, Exeter and Wincanton, writes David Massey.

Let's be honest here, though, if Matt offered me the tickets for free I'd still not go, as a) I have a flying phobia and b) the jumps season is starting to properly kick into gear. It's not all paddock watching and taking notes, however, I'm still doing some on-course work for the books, and that began with my first visit to Hereford last week.

It must seem, to the casual reader, that all the places I work at are exactly three-and-a-half hours away but that is indeed the time it takes for me to get to Hereford in a two-part trip. The first is from Nottingham to Leicester to get my lift, and that's the easy part; the more difficult second part involves crammed motorways and even when you turn off the M5 and see the sign saying "Hereford 20 miles", you're still the best part of 45 minutes away. Make that an hour if you get caught behind a tractor.

I was told the previous Hereford meeting was decent business, with just 15 books and a good crowd. Today, an extra four bookmakers turning up and the crowd down means it's slim pickings. I take a £1 ew bet from a punter having her first ever bet; she has it on the 8-13 favourite, Marble Sands, in the second race and picks up £2.87. I round it up to £3 for her in the hope she'll have another bet. She doesn't. She can, though, legitimately say to her friends she made a 50% profit on the day, which is something plenty cannot.

We actually got a result in the first, as the 5-1 shot Manintheshadows wins, but that really is a false dawn. That's followed by five out of the next six favourites winning, and two down from me, Martyn of Leicester looks decidedly peaky. "I think we'll have a steak dinner on the way back with what's left", son Stuart bemoans. He's true to his word and sends me a picture of it later that evening.

Next stop, Ludlow. Originally I was going to do this as a day trip but there's a change of plan and instead I'll stay over before Exeter on the Friday. I do like the drive to Ludlow, taking in the town of Much Wenlock, the home of the Olympics, on the way. If you don't believe me, then try and remember the names of the two Olympic mascots for the 2012 London Olympics. There's a good reason they chose the names they did. Have a Google and if you ever get the chance, give Much Wenlock a visit.

If you've never been to Ludlow before and you're using a satnav, you'll think it's sent you wrong when it tells you you've reached your destination and you appear to be in the middle of a field. Have a look around; can you see hurdles and fences surrounding you? Yep, you're there then. It's a strange one, is Ludlow: driving over mats here and there, all the time in the middle of the track. At the golf club, turn right.

The punting started badly, with me managing to lay two winners, but I'd been waiting for Fortescue's half-brother Blenkinsop to make his handicap debut in the last and, stepping up in trip, he duly got there just in time under another great Alice Stevens ride (she's good...) to save the day. Follow him this season, he'll win more.

I stayed over near Gloucester (after calling in at Gloucester Services, one of the great service stations) and although no fire alarms on this occasion, an owl outside my window made sure I got some noise in the night.

It's Exeter the next day. Never has the Exeter press room seen so many people in it, I'm told. An overflow area is required and one is provided. I bump into photographer Alan Crowhurst, up for an award for his "once in a blue moon" shot he managed to get this year. I ask him if that was his mate Ken Pitterson getting a round in, but he tells me that "ITV's Ken Pitterson", as Al refers to him, has gone cashless these days.

The best line Al has ever cracked about Ken was at the Yarmouth festival two years ago. The three of us were walking to the paddock together when Ken was stopped by an avid fan. It's fair to say his shoes had seen better days, the shirt he was wearing looked a step up on a rubbing-rag and his trousers had a hole in them. "You're great you are Ken", says the superfan. "When you're on he telly I follow all your tips." Quick as a flash Al looks at me and quips, "I think that's why he's dressed like that, Ken." Much laughter, even from Kenny P.

Anyway, I think I've seen a really lovely one in Outlaw Peter today. I shall start your cliché bingo card off with "a chaser in the making" and "could be anything" at this stage, but he's superbly put together and I will be disappointed if he doesn't make it near the top of the tree, be it this season or next.

Thyme Hill isn't left with a lot to beat once Press Your luck pulls up, so it's hard to say how good over fences he might be, but he does seem to have grown a little physically and ought to progress. I don't mind the fact he makes a mistake or two, it's how some novices learn to find a leg, and we will know more on his next run.

I fancy War Lord in the Haldon Gold Cup, but he doesn't see which way Greaneteen goes, in fact none of them do. So much for my thoughts of him using this as a warm-up for the Tingle Creek. War Lord finds it all happening a bit quick for him; surely softer ground and/or a step up in trip is now required.

Again, the last digs me out of the doo-doo, with Gerard Mentor holding on by a diminishing 3/4l from the gamble of the day Begin The Luck, who looked outstanding in the paddock and will surely make amends sooner rather than later. He goes off 100-30 but I'd nicked a bit of 11-2 in the morning, and he will pay for the evening meal in Yeovil. I didn't think I was that hungry, but when the nice lady on the reception desk informs me I'm entitled to a pint, main course and a dessert for £15, I can't sign up quick enough...

Excitingly, a trip to Wincanton to finish the week. I've never been so it's another to tick off the list (I'm coming for you Redcar, but not until next year) and what a cracking little track it is. Great facilities, good parade ring access, plenty of room for all and the only shame is the ground, which one jockey describes as "firm, with not much good in it". It has kept runners down a bit and a week of solid rain is probably needed to get it on the soft side. I realise it isn't the only place that needs it, but with cards recently abandoned for waterlogging, it hardly seems fair, does it?

Anyway, I'm there with my mate Becky, who has also taken her horse out of the novice hurdle with the ground. I have a share in her, so we'll have to wait until another day to find out exactly how slow she actually is.

There isn't a dry eye in the house as Frodon wins the Badger Beer, with her regular partner Bryony giving her a peach of a ride to win by 2 1/2l, a last-fence error by her nearest challenger, Lord Accord, helping her cause.

I spoke to Neil Mulholland afterwards, telling him if his had winged the last and chinned Frodon, he probably wouldn't have got out of Wincanton alive. He laughs. "You know what", he says, "I don't mind getting beaten by a good horse."

He thinks for a moment. "A proper horse."

I think that is something we can all agree on.

That nice Mr Nicholls has four of the seven winners, and the locals have pockets stuffed full of money. As I leave, just as the rain starts, I see the Martyn Of Leicester firm paying out again. I've seen that look on his face already this week; it's the same one he wore at Hereford. Steak dinners all round on the way home, again?

- DM

Betting the Breeders’ Cup Rollercoaster

/in , /by

The Breeders' Cup action on the tracks at Keeneland was, barring the high class procession of Flightline in the Classic, fiercely contested and highly emotionally charged. So, too, was betting the races; and, for this punter at least, it was a white knuckle roller coaster of a weekend. Allow me to elaborate...

A feature of playing big meetings is the availability of futures - or ante post, if you prefer - markets: more generous prices offered ahead of time when there is less certainty about which horses will run, what form they will be in, and how the races will set up. In the days leading up to the event, I had what the latest markets suggested was a solid value book and, importantly, had largely dodged the dreaded no shows.

Alas, that luck didn't hold with Laurel River getting scratched from the Dirt Mile the day before. 7/1 about a 3/1 shot is decent; 7/1 about a non-runner is, well, not decent. That's the futures game in a nutshell right there.

To Friday, and five two-year-old contests, three of them on the turf. How would the Europeans fare? And how would the portfolio hold up?! The opening Juvenile Turf Sprint would offer a tentative answer to both questions.

Love Reigns had been available at 8/1 a few days prior to race day - highlighted in this post as a likely shortener - and was sent off the 3.14/1 favourite for Wesley Ward, seeking a fourth straight win in the race; it's only been on the card for five years! That one broke only OK but couldn't run with the British speedsters who, led by Mischief Magic, finished 1-2-4-5. I'd had little bets on a few US horses (they'd won all four prior renewals) and they're mostly still running... I did nick a couple of quid with Dramatised's fine run but neither she nor any other was a match for Charlie Appleby's colt.

 

Next came the Juvenile Fillies and a contention that the Alcibiades, run over the same course and distance four weeks prior, was the key race. There, Wonder Wheel beat Chop Chop by a rapidly diminishing nose, with Raging Sea third. Chop Chop was the bet and 6/1 was secured (having flagged her at 8's and been too tardy to actually get any of that). She went off a little bigger than 9/4 but had no chance, getting a five wide transit throughout and eased off in the straight, with Wonder Wheel winning again and Raging Sea again finishing third. The winner was impressive under different tactics - she was supposed to be front rank but missed the bus! - and would probably have won anyway.

 

Staying with the two-year-old fillies but on the grass now, in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, it was time for Europe to try to win their third renewal on the occasion of the fifteenth running. Not a strong record, but Aidan O'Brien had peppered the target in spite of never having won the race. I'd fielded against the British and Irish, with their very poor race record, and had some fancy prices about a clutch of American runners. It was money back on G Laurie after she scratched the day before; and I was cheering 20/1 Free Look or 40/1 Pleasant Passage to get in front.

We all know what Meditate did: she was much the best and dominated in the straight. But with 13/2 or so Pleasant Passage running second, and 15/2 Free Look less than a length behind her in fifth, it was another close but no cigar event for this punter.

After two second places at decent prices, and a favourite taken at 6/1 who was the 'right answer with the wrong trip', it wasn't going especially well. And it would be going worse after the Juvenile...

In that penultimate Breeders' Cup Friday race, I'd played a 'no brainer' double finishing in the Mile with Modern Games and starting with Bob Baffert's Cave Rock. I feared the inside drawn Hurricane J as a pace spoiler and, as it turned out, was right to because that one ensured Cave Rock - sent off just less than 1/2 - did a tap more than ideal in chasing the lead. As they entered the straight, up loomed east coast champ Forte to run the jolly down.

 

Another second and it was starting to smart. At least this time, I picked up a few shekels for the place part on National Treasure, the second of four horses flagged in the 'bet these now' post from a week or so prior. He returned 8/1 and only 1/2 for the 'show' (i.e. to finish 3rd or better).

 

Finally on the opening day we had the Juvenile Turf, with the raiders bidding for a clean sweep on the sod and me bidding to get things back on track. This time I'd swung at an Appleby - not the only one across the weekend as will become apparent - in the form of progressive Autumn Stakes winner Silver Knott. In my quest for value, I'd merely supplanted big prices on this occasion, with the exception of 8/1 win only on Silver K.

Naturally, he found just a dash of traffic in his daring rail run while Victoria Road charmed himself through the eye of a needle between horses to prevail by a nose. The four remaining plays in the race, three of them over-staked most likely, are currently asking for directions to the jam stick somewhere towards the end of the back straight.

 

At the end of day one with the UK books I'd staked £586 and returned a skimpy £129.48. Meanwhile, in tote action, I had bought a $500 betting voucher and converted that into $708 by close of play, mainly thanks to a patriotic (of sorts) $20 exacta Victoria Road over Silver Knott; so a little more than £250 down overall on Friday. Far from a drama at this point, and I at least had some betting tokens for day two, as well as an equally healthy looking portfolio for the Saturday.

*

Breeders' Cup Saturday is a goliath of a race day: nine main event races bookended by two or three undercard heats make for an eleven or, as in this case, twelve race card. Even just focusing on the Cup stuff, which was the case for me, is a momentous undertaking. I was up early - everyone needed to be with a first post time of 10.30am - and had scribbled my tote plays into a notebook.

These are them, and I placed them all prior to the first race, something I've never done before and which turned out to be a godsend.

Total stakes were $1173 rather than $965 due to a) backing Cody's Wish for fifty bucks, and b) immediately recycling the return on that on two losers in the FM Turf. Sigh. Anyway, we're getting ahead of ourselves.

Saturday's curtain raiser was the Filly and Mare Sprint, a race in which I've had plenty of success backing bombs down the years and, with a ton of early speed in the pre-entries, I was excited to swing big again. But, when first Letruska and then Hot Peppers - both out and out need the lead types - were scratched, it notably diluted the front end heat. We still had Slammed, Lady Rocket and Echo Zulu, each of which had led or been within half a length at the first call in three of their last four starts, so the bomb play remained viable to some degree.

The whole position hung on a contention that favoured Midnight Olive might i) be over-estimated and ii) burn herself out chasing a too hot tempo. Long story slightly shorter, it just didn't play out that way: the first half went in 22.10, 44.89, which is quick enough; but the speed held up and Olive showed plenty of class to win by daylight.

Tote tickets with big-priced deep closers on top went on the spike. As did my only ante post play, on the sole Japanese runner, Chain Of Love, who, after a taking late rally both in the Dubai Golden Shaheen and in Japan last time, showed absolutely nada here. The other two deep closers - Obligatory and Chi Town Lady - did what they do but always at a respectful distance (respectively 14.5 and 16 lengths off the front at the first call!)

 

Having projected the opener completely wrong, I then managed to totally overlook Caravel, winner of the Turf Sprint, when doing form previews of 'all' runners. This was a potent combination of embarrassing and annoying, not that she'd have featured highly on my shortlist save for the good looking track and trip win last time out. I certainly wouldn't have played her 'on top', so that's something, I guess.

In the end, as well as ante post plays Arrest Me Red (ran fine, not good enough) and a double kicking off with Golden Pal (dreadfully dull effort), I added a few day of race darts including the Appleby duo and a defensive play on Flotus at about a million to one on the board. Also limped in with a very narrow Pick 4 guess. Limped back out again about 55.77 seconds later - in fairness, so did most other people who probably staked more into that pool than me.

Chazza's Creative Force closed well into third without ever threatening the (pretty impressive) winner; Emaraaty Ana ran another stormer in second and Highfield Princess performed perfectly well in fourth. The $100 US tote chip on her was lost but she was, like most of my tickets, value when comparing available odds.

The Turf Sprint was the only grass race won by the home team all weekend as it transpired, British runners finishing 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 6th in what was still a strong non-winning display.

 

"System going well, send more money" was the summary at this point. And, in the Dirt Mile, some respite. A lazy, chalky bullseye on story horse Cody's Wish - see below - was a relative shot in the arm to at least stem the flow: nice little cocktail of mixed metaphor there...

Cody's Wish was given a measured ride to out-finish the extremely busy and admirably tough Cyberknife who went down fighting. I'd had a good looking investment on late nonner, Laurel River, and my wise guy exacta selections - one of which was the other horse I backed in Britain, Simplification - took the wrong course, or something.

 

Check out Cody's on the jockey cam

 

Onwards, as is relentlessly the case through the top class nonet of wagering conundrums (wasn't sure if it should be 'conundra', so googled and discovered a very fun - if utterly nerdy - answer here) on day 2 at BC.

[Aside: Six-eight Friday/Saturday would work so much better, but we don't really need another juvenile race - dirt sprint?! - which would only make it seven-nine in any case; and moving one of the older horse Saturday races would be incongruent, so guess we're staying like this for now]

It was the Filly & Mare Turf next with its host of Euro entries. I was as cool as a refrigerated cucumber on the chances of the Ballydoyle 'T' brace, Tuesday and Toy, but all around the vibes - ah, yes, the vibes - were strong, especially about the Oaks winner. My contention had been she wasn't needing a bigger than quarter mile drop in trip; the counter - made by, clearly, smarter judges than me - was that she was crying out for it. Turned out she was. Luckily for me, one of the shroods was Neil, with whom I'd chewed the form cud for much of the weekend. His bet of the day, I couldn't ignore her, especially at 6/1 in a place.

It is, as they say, far better to be lucky than good. Having been neither heretofore, I borrowed someone else's good for ten minutes and caught some luck.

In point of fact, I'd been good enough to back second-placed In Italian each way at 7/1 - she went off 3/1 - and lucky enough that she made all bar the last fifty yards of the running. But the same tote board tempted me into a rapid release of my Cody coin, first with $100 on Nashwa at 4/1 (her price then proceeded to crash to a little better than 5/2, at which she'd have been no bet) and then $50 Above The Curve who ran no race this time. In the finish, with a $5 exacta returning $110, this was slightly better than a scratch race overall. But, left to my own devices, it would have been a car crash. Jeez.

 

The middle leg on Saturday, race five, was the Sprint, and the first of two coronations. Or so we/I thought. Jackie's Warrior had been much the best in the division all season, figured to get an easy lead, had had legit excuses (stamina, injury) when failing at odds on the past two Breeders' Cups, and, well, he'd just win, wouldn't he?

One of my learnings from the weekend - which I should already know - is that, when it looks like one horse will get a soft lead, it's information that every rider in the race will be aware of; as such, the chance of such an eventuality diminishes, and the price needs to reflect that scope for something different to play out. 4/5 is not a price that permits much uncertainty at all, and so my third - and, mercifully, final - punchy short odds double was waved adios as the #7 horse, Super Ocho, two boxes inside Jackie's Warrior, dished it up to the champ-elect on the front end through five of the six eighths of a mile. Then along came the big improver this season, Elite Power, with a strong finish to roll on by. JW was sufficiently cooked that the octogenarian (OK, unfair, he's eight, not 80) C Z Warrior also shuffled his Zimmer frame past in the final strides.

This was a hideous bet for me, coupling a non-runner and a pair of shorties both of whom failed to make the place position let alone the win. The first two home were nowhere on my exotics either so, head shaking like a sideways Churchill pooch, we pushed on pronto.

 

Well into the second half, then, and I've yet to have a winning opinion of my own. I was feeling pretty down in the chops by this point, and I didn't really have anything to cheer in the Mile after Cave Rock had done for my value double with Modern Games. I'd backed Annapolis at 10's because I felt he had to be shorter by the off, and I had some tote action firmly centred on Modern G. I meant to back Ivar but didn't, which would have been annoying assuming the books had paid four places and a relief if they paid three. And I played a bit of Order of Australia and Kinross at his ridiculous US tote price of 9.39/1: I didn't like him at 3/1 back home but this was a bit insulting.

More losers, more self-flagellation and wagering-wise I was in what felt like as big a hole in a couple of days as I'd been since some reckless punting ventures of many moons ago. I'd done about $750 on the tote to this point, but had $250 left of those wagers placed before racing; but my ante post book was in tatters: £1300 staked, £600 returned. Writing that now, it's not nearly as terrible as I'd perceived, but when you're caught up in a really fast-moving moment like Breeders' Cup Saturday lucid thinking can fail even the best of us - and certainly me.

There were three races left and I needed a minor miracle to get out breathing, or so I thought without the benefit of the bean counting in the stanza above. It was the Distaff next, and I'd made a stinky each way play on Malathaat at 3/1 () believing that the eight pre-entries would reduce to seven with one filly claiming first preference elsewhere. If ever a bet deserved to get whacked, it was this one. But, with so many on the spike that arguably deserved better, the perversity of the betting deities was on show yet again.

In the best finish of the meeting - a three-way shootout separated by nostrils - Malathaat just edged Blue Stripe with Clairiere rounding out the podium positions. The winner paid 2.88/1 compared to my 3/1. I mean, I'd take it if you offered me it on every 3/1 ticket struck, but... With a couple of place bob on Clairiere each way at 14/5, too, this felt massive. Again, it felt bigger than it was. Such can be the heightened sensitivity of a marathon punting sesh.

 

Additionally, I had taken a couple of wimpy Pick 3's starting in the Distaff, rolling through the Turf and ending in the Classic. This is the losing $1 version, and I played a $3 version with the same horses in legs 1 and 2, and the big guy in the Classic.

In fairness, they may have been narrow but they left well touted Nest off the Distaff leg, and that helped. If not yet quite back in the game, it was at least looking a little less like a motorway pile up and veering towards a shattered headlight, to continue with the utterly unsuitable vehicular metaphor.

But then came something approaching divine intervention in the Breeders' Cup Turf. I knew from midsummer I wanted to be with Charlie in anything beyond a mile on the lawns, and I'd seen a quote mid-September that Nations Pride and Rebel's Romance were slated to get on the 'plane. In their final preps, both took the eye in differing ways: Nations battered his rivals at Aqueduct while Rebel's showed a rarely-seen-in-distance-racers turn of pace before flattening (or maybe idling) in a German Group 1; he still won there. Both were 12/1. Well, I went and backed 'em though I wasn't allowed much. Fair enough, I suppose. A week before, I had a bit of a saver on War Like Goddess, and before racing began I'd played boldly in exactas and trifectas with four Euro horses, the Appleby pair as 'A' picks on top.

It went really rather better than anything to that point. And thank crikey for that.

After drawing £720 I was now in front on the ante post book, a scarcely plausible position from just an hour ago. As well as that, I'd cashed a $10 exacta with Rebel's Romance on top of Stone Age, another horse I was against when doing the form but drawn to by 'the vibes'. The exacta paid $69.87 for a dollar, so $698.70 for ten. I'd played some $5 trifectas with Charlie over Aidan/Charlie over Aidan/Charlie. Not quite, but could conceivably have put the Goddess underneath: it came up $175.27 for each 50 cent unit. Woulda coulda shoulda.

Emotions were up and up by now. Some people say you shouldn't get emotional when betting, but not me. I want to be moved by both the action and the outcome. I want to feel good and, yes, I want to feel bad; that's the game: we need the bad beats to give us emotional context for when it goes our way, to elevate the sense of joy, relief, excitement, vindication. That's why we bet. It's why I bet at any rate. Those who use an algo to nick a few quid... well good luck to them but what a soulless existence.

Here's the Rebel, reprising that late gear change and getting me boisterous in the process:

And so to the climax of the meeting, the Breeders' Cup Classic, and a fella named Flightline. I had those two Pick 3's live into the Classic and there's little doubt the dollar versions were going to pay more than the three buck single through the jolly. I did also have a couple of weirdo bits and pieces staked a while back, including a non-runner, a forgotten Ky Derby winner, and some smaller staked each way filth; but I was only rooting for one man here, Flavien Prat, Flightline's jockey.

The race had a clear shape to it - as clear as any race can given the comments made in the Sprint section above - and this one went with the script: Life Is Good, an extremely classy if one-dimensional front end brute, surged on with Flightline tailgating on the snaff. At the top of the stretch, with Irad Ortiz throwing the lot at Life Is Good, Prat asked his lad to lengthen: the verdict was instant.

Flightline bounded away, Life Is Good a fading shape in the rear view mirrors; the gallant trailblazer eventually eased out to fifth place, surpassed in the final quarter by all of Olympiad, Taiba and Rich Strike respectively. The final margin of victory was eight and a quarter lengths, taking Flightline's six-race career aggregate winning margin to 71 lengths! It's just a shame we won't see any more of him as he feels like he's only really getting started.

Epicenter, second betting choice, unfortunately sustained an injury, which has been successfully operated on since and, though he has been retired from racing, the prognosis is good that this super-consistent three-year-old - winner of the Grade 1 Travers and second in two Triple Crown races including the Kentucky Derby - will be able to take up stallion duties in due course.

After the Turf, I was able to watch this almost exclusively as a sporting event rather than a wagering one, and that was just great. I cashed the Pick 3, which didn't pay much ($123) but was a welcome contribution to the bottom line. In terms of that bottom line, buying a voucher and then keeping most winning tickets until the end (I did cash and 're-invest' the Cody chip) makes it easy to track profit and loss. I bought a $500 voucher on Friday, topped it up with $300 before racing on Saturday and didn't pay with 'folding' for a bet thereafter. So the $868 and pennies I cashed the winning tickets in for after the last represented a most improbable - and waffery-thin - positive outcome. Likewise on the UK books P&L:

 

Having published detailed thoughts on every race here, it was more the ignominy of sending so many geegeez readers inadvertently in the wrong direction that smarted most. Obviously, I bet within my parameters of comfort - though Saturday did take me away from the centre of that zone - but what is never comfortable for me is when I have publicly shared the name of a horse I think is worth betting: it's pressure I can't handle, truth be told. With luck, at least some of you will have found a way to the pay window through the weekend. [Regardless of how the results go, it's always the same - large - amount of labour to work through the form. Sometimes the effort is rewarded, often now. That's how it is, eh?]

I very much hope you enjoyed the Breeders' Cup show, especially the brilliant performances by the Euro squad - not just the winners but 'we' laid siege to the places as well - and that boyo in the Classic.

Matt

**

post script

A few things I learned, or about which I was reminded:

  1. Short-priced horses habitually get beaten at the Breeders' Cup because the races are so deep. Doubling them up doesn't really make sense. [Note to self]
  2. European horses seem to love Keeneland: they're 12/20 in the three Breeders' Cups here, the 6/7 this year bettering 4/7 in 2020 and 2/6 in 2015.
  3. Betting race to race is emotionally challenging. The very best thing I did was to strike the majority of bets before the first. Whilst conceding the chance to scout the prices pre-race, it took emotion out of the thought process (but not the race watching process), leading to more reasoned wagers.
  4. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing, especially in pursuit of a late night weekend winner!

**

COMPETITION TIME

I managed to bring a few souvenirs back with me and thought they'd make a nice raffle prize. As they say across the pond, here's what I got...

Click on the image to view full size

- Programmes from both Friday's and Saturday's meetings
- A Daily Racing Form for Friday's card
- Some Kentucky 'horse country' brochures
- A Breeders' Cup lanyard
- A Breeders' Cup tote bag
- Uncashed $1 win bet on Flightline

Plus three runners up prizes of an uncashed $1 win bet on Flightline

To be in with a chance to win, simply go here and enter your name and email. These details will ONLY be used to contact you for postal address if you're a winner. One entry per person. Duplicate entries will be disqualified. Good luck!

Matt

Monday Musings: Happy Families in Keeneland

/in /by

If you could find it possible for present-day owners and trainers of a more recent vintage than John Gosden or even in the US, Wayne Lukas, to have a blow-by-blow retrospective of the astonishing goings-on at the Keeneland Selected July Yearling sales in the 1980’s – long since abandoned in favour of augmenting the September auction - most would find plenty to shock them, writes Tony Stafford.

That decade was the era of the multi-million-dollar head-to-head battles over three days each feverishly hot summer. Although plenty of others squeezed in for the occasional lot, it was a test of strength principally between the Sangster team (Robert’s Vernon’s Pools cash; Vincent O’Brien’s exemplary training skills and John Magnier’s all-round horse expertise) and the Maktoum family members – four brothers fresh on the scene from Dubai.

It got to the stage where a single yearling sold to Sangster for 13.1 million dollars. I wasn’t in the auditorium that July, but it was possibly the year before when with the bright red legend “CRIBBER” emblazon above his lot number as he stood patiently on the stand – they don’t walk them round in Keeneland – the hammer fell on one colt at somewhere around $8 million.

I can never forget the legendary auctioneer Tom Caldwell, after recording the sale, saying: “I can officially say, that was a world-record price for a cribber!” No wonder, at any sale if they are not so designated beforehand, crib-biting is a stable vice which entitles the buyer to return the horse to its vendor.

The duels got so extreme that briefly there had to be a truce and a meeting where the Sheikh Mohammed camp and Sangster’s side agreed to consult each other rather than fight for the best ones. Nowadays that would be probable cause for a prosecution under some sort of fraud or restraint of trade law.

If ever there had been any friendly connection rather than a financial accommodation is doubtful and the Sheikh’s team quickly broke ranks.
By the time the next ownership generation of Michael Tabor and later Derrick Smith joined Magnier, Sangster having left the Coolmore ranks for Manton and sadly a relatively earth death, while Vincent O’Brien retired, replaced by the non-related Aidan O’Brien, you could detect a real enmity between the teams.

This probably was at its height at the time of the Mahmood Al Zarooni scandal, the former chief trainer for Godolphin, having usurped long-running Saeed bin Suroor in getting the best horses, was found to have doped 15 horses and was banned from training for eight years.

A story this summer revealed that Al Zarooni, now 45, was re-applying for a licence to train in Dubai and he still hopes – probably unrealistically – to have interests in the future with UK racing.

Al Zarooni states he didn’t use the banned substances while the horses were racing, just to treat various injuries. Most significant of the 15 was the 2012 St Leger winner Encke, who had denied Camelot the distinction of becoming the first horse since Vincent O’Brien’s Nijinsky in 1970 to complete the Triple Crown of 2,000 Guineas, Derby and St Leger by beating him narrowly at Doncaster. His departure left the way clear for his then assistant Charlie Appleby, to take over..

Now though, as the pictures showed after each of the Turf races at last weekend’s Breeders’ Cup meeting at Keeneland’s up-market race track, even if the old days of no race commentaries are long gone, the two main ownership groups in European racing are far from enemies.
I think I ought to modify that conclusion. When a Charlie Appleby-trained Godolphin horse wins a major race as three did at Keeneland, almost the first to congratulate him is Aidan O’Brien. Equally, the Coolmore owners – notably Michael Tabor – have warmed to Charlie and possibly for the first time, a Team Europe vibe was emanating from the winners’ circle.

On Friday as first Mischief Magic, for Godolphin (Juvenile Turf Sprint) and then Coolmore’s Meditate (Juvenile Fillies’ Turf) put the home challenge to bed emphatically, the two teams were seen exchanging congratulations.

The Godolphin ownership group was pretty much limited to Hugh Anderson, the group’s Chief Operating Officer and there was no sign of a Maktoum in the leafy paddock, where four decades ago the brothers used to scour the barns at the sales with such dedication.

Then when Ryan Moore on Victoria Road just edged out newly crowned UK champion jockey William Buick on Silver Knott by a nose in the Juvenile Turf, the respective greetings revealed just how much respect Messrs O’Brien and Appleby have for each other.

Three more winners on Saturday, the remarkable Modern Games for the second successive year in the Mile for Appleby/Buick; the Oaks winner Tuesday in the Filly and Mare Turf for O’Brien (Moore) and finally Rebel’s Romance, a four-year-old gelding for Appleby and James Doyle in the £4 million Turf over one and a half miles, showed them to be if not a team – a duopoly of mutual respect and friendship. The three winning jockeys are equally great friends as are Doyle’s mum Jacqui and Appleby’s mother Patricia, the pair often inseparable at the big meetings in the UK.

All that family affection left us with the Main course after some very tasty appetisers which I’m sure plenty of people afterwards missed celebrating with dinner in The Mansion, sadly now closed. That was Flightline, the horse we caught up with a month or so ago and now winner by eight and a half lengths in the Classic.

There have been some high-cost sacrificial objects in the history of horse racing but surely none has come close to Life Is Good, third favourite behind Flightline, the 4-9 favourite, a price that was pretty good value in the circumstances.

Winner by an average of 12 lengths through his five career starts, Flightline sat second on the flank of Life Is Good, himself a winner of nine of his 11 lifetime races before Saturday. Trainer Todd Pletcher was adamant his colt would race in his usual attacking fashion, and while the rest of the field set off a long way behind, Flightline and jockey Flavien Prat never wavered from trainer John Sadler’s plan.

In the straight they pulled alongside and with just a minimal adjustment in Prat’s urgings, he was away and gone. No Secretariat, but then again that great champion of the 1970’s had already ground the main opposition to dust before beating Sham by 31 lengths in the Belmont Stakes in 1973. Life Is Good faded to fifth in the closing stages. A more measured ride behind the favourite probably would have earned him the million-dollar second prize.

Now I need to recall an episode while staying for a few days in Virginia Payson’s – St Jovite’s owner’s - house on the shores of Long Island, New York. I was introduced during a well-attended racing and breeding-oriented party one night, thus. “Tony, this is Penny Chenery”. I can still picture her sitting demurely behind a desk. As Virginia moved away and we exchanged pleasantries, I asked: “Didn’t you own a good horse?”

“Oh, you must mean Secretariat!”

Can you imagine the embarrassment?

Well maybe Flightline isn‘t quite Secretariat, but on limited evidence – six runs for him against 21 (and 16 wins) in just 16 months for Big Red, with a Triple Crown, two Horse of the Year accolades and a world record time for a mile and a half in that iconic Belmont Stakes – he may not be that far off.

In those days, breeders tended to restrict stallions to around 40 mares a year. The top flat-race sires, even with the short covering season, nowadays can get close to 200, so with the chance of half a million a pop at least, the Flightline owners can expect to cop $100 million a year, as long as he is fertile, for everyone will want to come to see him at Will Farish’s Lane’s End farm, down the road from Keeneland, and try to produce a replica. I would still have preferred him to race on and truly prove his greatness against all-comers, but the decision to retire him had been made.

As an aside, what happened to the Japanese this year? Just Chain Of Love, well beaten in the Filly and Mare Sprint, for the land of the rising sun after their heroics last year.

Racing did continue over here where the most interesting happening was Mick Channon’s last day double, not just the last day of the 2022 turf season in the UK but the final day of Mick’s training career.

The former Southampton and England footballer can be counted as the most successful graduate from his initial sport to switch to training racehorses and over the 32 years he held a licence he sent out more than 2,500 flat winners in the UK and many more overseas as well as plenty over jumps.

He was unlucky not to win the Arc as his gallant horse Youmzain was successively second to Dylan Thomas - part-owner Michael Tabor believes he should have been disqualified in 2007; to the astonishing Zarkava as a five-year-old, and to Sea The Stars in a field of 19 in 2009.
Mick’s retirement leaves the way clear for younger son Jack to take over the famous West Ilsley yard, previously the base for the great Dick Hern and champions like Brigadier Gerard, Nashwan and Dayjur, possibly the UK’s unluckiest-ever Breeders’ Cup loser.

Jack was one of a dozen or so students on the latest BHA trainers’ module at the Racing School in Newmarket the week before last. Like several of his fellow students, he had to plead temporary absence to watch the stable’s horses go through the ring at the Tattersalls HIT sale that same week.

He shared the course – his final module as he’d done the first two, six then two years before – with AJ O’Neill, son of Jonjo and destined to share the licence at Jackdaw’s Castle with dad in the future, and Sean Quinn, son of John, the Malton trainer.

Others were Harry Derham, the latest aiming to exchange assistant trainer status with Paul Nicholls to a yard of his own in the future. One predecessor, Harry Fry, switched from jumps to the flat at Doncaster to win the November Handicap easily with Metier. Nicholls’ favourite bloodstock agent, Tom Malone, was also there, when not required to bid on one down the road at Tatts.

It was a shame that Saffron Beach was unable to take her place at the Breeders’ Cup, but her part-owner Ollie Sangster will not have minded too much as he starts training from Manton imminently having safely concluded his final module. He found time to skip school to acquire one or two from the horses in training sale to join the squad of regally-bred yearlings he picked up earlier in October.

Finally, Siobhan Doolan, daughter of former Irish jump jockey Kevin and granddaughter of my pal Wilf Storey, was also there, taking time off from her job as an underwriter in bloodstock insurance. She also found time to buy at the sale, picking up the three-year-old filly Shifter, a winner for Stuart Williams. Shifter has settled in at Grange Farm Stables in Co Durham and I bet, like Going Underground, a recent winner and then so unlucky last Friday at Newcastle, she will win before long!

As I said at the start. This racing game is all about family!

- TS

Monday Musings: Down Under

/in /by

Last week I made a couple of trips to Newmarket sales where I marvelled at the seemingly never-ending stream of - mainly overseas - buyers keen to pick up second-hand UK and Irish thoroughbreds, writes Tony Stafford. Not just pick them up, but happy to pay handsomely for them.

The Australians set the pace and it was just two days after the Tattersalls Autumn Horses in Training sale ended with record receipts that the penny finally dropped.

As I waited for the afternoon’s high-class jumping at Ascot and Wetherby and Newmarket’s final day’s action of 2022 with a couple of Listed races, to begin, I had a quick look at the early results.  Two Australian venues had been in operation, Flemington in Melbourne and Rosehill in Sydney as far as the newspaper was concerned – there are umpteen tracks going on Down Under all the time at a lower level of course that we never hear about.

There were results for nine races at Flemington, many of them Group events including two at G1 level, with the Victoria Derby and its first prize of £736k leading the way. The total of winners’ prizes alone, in Racing Post monetary calculation, was an eye-watering £2,360,000 so the total value of the races as the Spring Carnival continued, with the highlight being the Melbourne Cup tomorrow, would have been nearer £5 million.

The Post carried only three results from Rosehill, but the main race of the day, the XXXX Golden Eagle over seven furlongs, carried a full field of 20 runners. It comprised 18 Southern Hemisphere four-year-olds and two Northern Hemisphere three-year-olds having their first runs in Australia and accompanied to ride them by Jamie Spencer and Frankie Dettori.

The winner was a gelding called I Wish I Win (wishes can come true!), trained by Peter Moody, who had bought into the horse after his first three races (no wins) and ridden by Luke Nolen. The jockey, of course, is best known here for his narrow Royal Ascot win on Black Caviar ten years ago when he gave the great mare’s many backers a scare before getting the verdict, and he was again enjoying the best of a desperate finish at Rosehill Gardens.

Second, a nose behind, was the filly Fangirl, trained by Chris Waller and ridden by Hugh Bowman, the team behind the great Winx, who had by all accounts a successful birth recently after some difficult experiences at stud since her retirement from the track.

Talking about Royal Ascot, I had sat next to Waller at lunch a couple of hours before his outstanding sprinter Nature Strip obliterated the opposition in the King’s Stand Stakes on the opening day of the meeting. This was the 21st victory of his then 40-race career. He has won and been third in two more big sprints at home since returning to action this Australian spring.

The difference between victory and defeat has rarely been as stark as in this race, especially considering the cigarette paper thin margin. The winner’s prize was a massive £2,833,333 – second got £1,075,268, not bad but almost £2 million less than the winner! As to how Messrs Spencer and Dettori got on, Jamie will have been content with his sixth place, beaten barely two lengths on the former David Simcock-trained Light Infantry. Sixth prize was £94,086 for the colt now trained by the team of Ciaron Meyer and Englishman David Eustace.

Third to fifth were respectively £537,634, £268,817 and £134,408. Dettori was seventeenth on Welwas, previously with Jean-Claude Rouget in France. He and the trio finishing behind him, still picked up £5,376, more than the winners of the opening two-year-old maidens at Newmarket on Saturday and comfortably more than any of the seven Wolverhampton all-weather contests that evening.

Total money for the one race was a remarkable £5,270,000. The winner got almost half a million quid more than tomorrow’s Melbourne Cup hero, but there are umpteen European connections in the race that stops the nation. I make it that half the horses in the 24-runner line-up have emanated from the UK mostly, France or Ireland, and the favourite at 5/2 is trained by James Ferguson, son of former Godolphin king pin and now agent, John, and in just his third full season with a licence.

Ferguson’s representative is Deauville Legend, winner last time out of the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York. Again, one of only two three-year-olds in the field, he will be trying to emulate the 2018 winner, Cross Counter, trained by Charlie Appleby, who beat Hughie Morrison’s Marmelo after running a close second in the same York race that Deauville Legend won.

One familiar name is the five-year-old gelding Serpentine, two years after his surprise Derby win for Aidan O’Brien and Coolmore. Now a gelding, he ran a good second in a minor prep race at Flemington on Saturday. He carries 3lb less than the favourite!

We mentioned the other three-year-old, Hoo Ya Mal, last week. The Derby second to Desert Crown was sold for £1.2 million at the boutique Kensington Gardens auction on the eve of Royal Ascot. From then until his dispatch to Australia, Hoo Ya Mal was in the care of George Boughey, tasked to handle the colt’s preparation after the sale until his departure.

Occupants of properties in a town with restricted accommodation can be a moving feast. I’m pretty sure though that eight of tomorrow’s field are trained by young men (including Boughey), generally assistant trainers at the time, who shared a house owned in Newmarket by George Scott a few years back.

Boughey, Ed Crisford, Ferguson and the brothers David and Harry Eustace were all at one time common tenants in Scott’s house. Harry Eustace, 22 winners on his card this year on only his second full season, is not involved tomorrow save cheering on his brother, but the others are.

Crisford junior trains, with father Simon, the other long-time former Godolphin mainstay. He, unlike Ferguson senior, still has plenty to say in that operation although none of the father-son duo’s horses are in Godolphin ownership. Their runner, Without A Fight, is a five-year-old gelding, winner of seven of his 17 starts. He is a son of Teofilo, as was Cross Counter.

That takes us to three, but step forward David Eustace, elder son of former dual purpose trainer James. He and his co-trainer, the extravagantly attired Ciaron Maher, have five representatives in the line-up, one more than last year when fourth and sixth places earned £275k for the stable’s owners.

One man determined to be there was Richard Ryan, racing manager for Teme Valley, fresh from the win of Bayside Boy, owned in partnership with Ballylinch Stud, at 33/1 in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Champions Day at Ascot.

Requiring to be in Berkshire prevented Ryan’s presence in Australia for Numerian’s prep race in the Caulfield Cup in which he was a close fifth. Numerian, once with Joseph O’Brien, is now in the care of Annabel Neasham, one of the main buyers at last week’s sale. When asked whether she had an owner for one of her expensive acquisitions, she suggested there might be 200 potential owners champing at the bit! I bet some of her counterparts at Newmarket found that hard to take.

After Melbourne, of course, it’s off to the Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland, far from the favourite venue for my friend Harry Taylor who prefers some Californian heat at Santa Anita. Sorry mate, at least you have the chance to see the astonishing Flightline in the Classic. Baaeed’s fall from grace in the Champion Stakes at Ascot leaves the way clear for a coronation, US style, late on Saturday. It’s being shown on ITV 3 on both Friday and Saturday and will be well worth waiting up for. [The Classic is due off at 9.40pm, so not too late - Ed.]

The American horses trying, in vain most likely, to match Flightline in the Classic are being left to their own devices, and in the other dirt races, too, apart from some Japanese challenges. But in the turf contests they will hard pressed to keep the lid on what looks like a stronger European challenge than for some time. Kinross and Modern Games set a decent standard in the Mile, while Charlie Appleby looks to have a stranglehold on the Turf with Nations Pride and Rebel's Romance heading the market.

I pass on a humorous note about one rider going off to the meeting with an obvious chance. Jason Hart, who rode Safe Voyage at Keeneland in 2020, is pleased to take that experience with him for his ride on the remarkable Highfield Princess in the Turf Sprint. The three-time Group 1 winning five-year-old vies for favouritism with Wesley Ward’s speedball Golden Pal.

Hart won last week at Newcastle on the Wilf Storey-trained Going Underground, delighting owner Herbert Hutchinson in the process. When told Hart would be unable to ride him at Newcastle this Friday night as he was going to the US, Mr H asked can we not claim him? Afraid not Herbert, you’ll have to make do with Kevin Stott!

- TS

Breeders’ Cup 2022: Four to back now

/in , /by

This time next week the first five, of fourteen, Breeders' Cup races will be upon us. Friday is juvenile day, with nine older horse Championship races following on Saturday, and the action - both on track and in the betting - will be feverish.

One of the beauties of the Breeders' Cup is the convergence of US and European (and sometimes Japanese and South American) form, and the differences of opinion that British and American bettors have. With that in mind, what follows are four horses that look likely to shorten from their current prices and represent a bit of value a week from now.

Love Reigns (Juvenile Turf Sprint)

Wesley Ward has won this for the past three years and has just a single runner this time around. He puts his faith in Love Reigns, a fast starter who won over course and distance on her debut. She was a fine fourth to re-opposing Dramatised at Royal Ascot but didn't quite see out that demanding straight five with an uphill finish. Since returning to America, she's won again over the turning five and half furlong range in spite of taking a lead to the first turn.

 

All four winners of the Juvenile Turf Sprint have led all the way and, while she does face a couple of possible pace contenders in The Platinum Queen and Tyler's Tribe, she is likely to be very popular with the American betting public.

The Platinum Queen represents Britain and she's a fast filly, as demonstrated by her win in the Prix de l'Abbaye in receipt of chunks of weight against elders; but she has never raced around a turn before and that's a different ball game. It doesn't mean she can't handle a turn but her current price implies she definitely will. She only definitely might!

8/1 Love Reigns looks on the big side.

National Treasure (Juvenile)

Love him or hate him, Bob Baffert has a stranglehold on the juvenile colt dirt division, and is doubly represented here. He saddles the strong favourite, Cave Rock, who is unbeaten in three and stretched out to this trip for a comfortable five length Grade 1 win last time. And he also saddles the less exposed National Treasure, who chased Cave Rock home in that G1, the American Pharoah at Santa Anita.

There is a good chance that Cave Rock is just much the best, but even then something has to finish second and third, and National Treasure's Beyer speed figure is already the clear second pick in the race. He is entitled to improve on what will only be his third career start and was able to rate the pace set by Cave Rock meaning he's versatile in terms of run style. A horse called Hurricane J is unlikely to trouble the judge but he could be a pace spoiler for the favourite early on, and we don't know how the Baffert beast will cope with early contention: it might weaken his ability in the stretch.

Regardless, National Treasure looks over-priced in an each way context at 12/1 in a place.

Malathaat (Distaff)

Malathaat is only 3/1 but she perhaps deserves to be favourite for the Distaff. She's a dual Grade 1 scorer this season, has the highest speed figure in the field (jointly with Clairiere) and has never been out of the first three in seven tries at the nine furlong trip. She's unbeaten in three at host track Keeneland, including two at the trip, one of which was last time out by more than five lengths in a Grade 1. A half length third in last year's race, she's upped her game a length since then and - if she doesn't get too far back early in what might not be an especially rapidly run race - is the one to beat.

 

She's available at 3/1 with three places each way with one firm, even though of the eight pre-entries is already stated as having her first preference in another race.

Taiba (Classic)

This could simply be the Flightline show, that unbeaten colt recording some off the scale numbers this season in totally savaging his rivals. And I hope it will be just that, because he might be the best since Secretariat, which is to say the best for fifty years. His win in the Pacific Classic last time was preposterous: it was his first try at the Classic trip of ten furlongs and stamina was supposedly a doubt. He won that Grade 1 by 19 1/4 lengths with the Dubai World Cup winner in second and another seven lengths back to a legit G1 horse in third!

 

He's an absolute monster but... he has been fragile, as his five race - all carefully spaced apart - career implies. And his trainer, John Sadler, has had some shocking fortune in the Breeders' Cup: having saddled bundles of fancied horses, his sole triumph from 54 BC starters is the 2018 Classic winner, Accelerate. This will be Flightline's second venture outside southern California, an Achilles heel for many of his trainer's Breeders' Cup runners in the past. He was his least assured - though still much the best - on his previous foray out of state, in the Met Mile at Belmont. In fairness, it's unlikely even Sadler's bad ju-ju will stop this lad; but, again, something has to run second and third.

In that context, Taiba, another out of the Baffert barn, looks likely to shorten. A three-year-old unraced at two, Taiba is by rock hard Classic winner Gun Runner, and his sole heavy defeat was in the massive field Kentucky Derby. He was also a head second in the G1 Haskell before stepping forward to win by three lengths in the Penn Derby, a favoured Baffert Classic prep.

His price - 12/1 - is made mainly by Flightline of course, but also by a horse called Life Is Good, a need-the-lead speedball who has only raced beyond nine furlongs once, when failing to get home in the Dubai World Cup at this mile and a quarter range. In fairness, he's tough on the lead but I imagine he will be wilting in the stretch.

Epicenter - conditioned by Gun Runner's trainer, Steve Asmussen - looks more legitimate for the frame. He's a strong stayer and will be unhurried while the fireworks are lit ahead of him; but he cannot fill out second and third spots, and he's more exposed than Taiba (ten lifetime starts vs five). It doesn't look an especially deep Classic beyond those mentioned so, while there's an absolute superstar in there, 12/1 Taiba looks an each way multiple play on a potential shortener.

Good luck.

Matt

Roving Reports: To Cheltenham, eventually

/in /by

It's been a while since my last missive, mainly because after the last one the good lady and myself took ourselves off to St Ives to celebrate her milestone birthday, writes Dave Massey. You'll not want to hear stories about me traipsing around the coast, visiting art galleries and generally making out I'm far more cultured than I actually am; what you want to know is where I've been racing since I got back.

It started with my first visit to Plumpton this season, that coming on the Bob Champion Charity Raceday, a meeting I do try and get down to each year. Plumpton, like Fakenham, is one of those well-run country tracks where after about four visits, you know the crowd that go there on first-name terms. I love the place, full of genuine race enthusiasts that have their favourites. You can pretty much guarantee a roar going up every time a Chris Gordon or Gary Moore horse hits the front in the closing stages. The former had one winner on the day, the latter two, and I doubt very much that the bookmakers walked away winning.

I'm staying in a hotel in Horsham for a couple of nights, as Kempton and Fontwell are also on the agenda in the next two days. After a long drive down I'm really tired and fall asleep about half ten, only to be woken up around 12.45am as the fire alarm goes off. I'm on the top floor, right at the rear of the hotel, so quickly put trousers and a t-shirt on, grab the phone and wallet and get out as swiftly as possible.

However, I didn't put socks and shoes on, and am stood outside without either. What happens next is bizarre, to say the least; the potted version is a German woman took pity on me, gave me her dressing gown, chatted to me for 15 minutes before asking me my star sign to see if we'd be compatible, and then gave me her room number. I'm not making this up. I mean, I couldn't have looked any worse - disheveled without footwear in the early hours, hair all over the place, yet here we are. After being allowed back into the hotel (no fire, a sensor issue) you'll be pleased to hear, dear reader, I retired to my own room.

Tuesday. I decide, as I'm fairly near, to have an hour at Hove greyhounds before I set off for Kempton. It's depressing to tell you that there couldn't have been a dozen punters there. The place had all the atmosphere of a crypt. It's saying something when the evening Kempton meeting felt busy by comparison. Such a shame, as Hove used to be a really busy little place, even the afternoon meetings drawing enough to make playing the Tote worthwhile. No longer.

A change of plan. I'm supposed to be going to Fontwell on the Wednesday, but I've a share in one running at Worcester and the card, with three novice hurdles and a bumper, looks more appealing. So I set off from Horsham around 7.45 am in bright sunshine, but by the time I get to Worcester around 11.30 it's cold and cloudy and the wind is blowing.

My fallouts with the car park attendants at Worcester have been many over time, but on this occasion all goes smoothly and before you know it, I'm enjoying an early lunch. There aren't many bets to be had on the card, although I do like the giant (and wonderfully named, Trumpton fans) Cuthbert Dibble in the bumper and try a little each-way investment. Third place gets me a small profit back but he's definitely one you want to be taking forward. Lovely big chasing type, he'll do well once he sees some obstacles.

Sadly Blue Suede Shoes, the horse I've a small share in, doesn't complete and leaves us scratching our heads. Too green, or just not a racehorse? I've no doubt her next couple of runs will reveal a lot more.

Thursday. Southwell sees rain, lots of it. It's the usual crowd, and as they don't want to hang around outside between races, it is decided we will all bet to 15 minutes. This means no prices until fifteen minutes before the off, with all the books going up at the same time. This not only gives you time to get a cup of tea and a loo visit between races, but it gives a chance for the market to form properly.

So we open up fifteen minutes before the first. There is one, sole, woman punter in the ring. None of us are in a rush to get her business.

She comes over to me, and looks at the board. To the astonishment of us all, she announces...

"£300 number one, and £100 ew number three."

We all stand there, open-mouthed. What just happened there, then?

It turns out she's one of a party upstairs who have all chipped a fair amount of money into a pot and are basically betting whatever the majority go with. Number 1 wins, and she draws £1300 off us as a start. £300 is invested back and they keep a grand. Sadly for them, they barely back another winner and by the time the last comes around, funds have dwindled.

However, there's a twist. They have their last £300 as a £150 each-way bet on Superstar DJ at 28-1. When it romps home, you can hear the screams a mile away. Over £5k to draw. You have never seen a happier bunch of ladies and we're delighted to pay them out.

And so to the end of the week, and a return to the home of National Hunt. Yes, Cheltenham is back, and I'm working on the rails both days.

The Friday is a quiet day, despite plenty of runners, and there are few big bets flying around. The biggest I take is a £300 Music Drive in the novice hurdle at 13-8, but that stays in the satchel as Mofasa, who looked really well going to post, comes out on top despite a mistake at the last.

The rain just keeps a-fallin' even with the forecasts saying that it ought to have stopped around lunchtime; but Cheltenham, as we know from Champion Chase Day this year, has its own micro-climate and trying to guess the weather here is a game in itself. Two slip up on the Flat in the last and we all agree it's probably a good job there's no more racing on the day.

Saturday is busier. Some old familiar faces in the crowd including Cheltenham member Bridget, who always has her fiver with me. Good judge too, is Bridget, and after she's backed Shearer in the first I remark to her it's always the same old faces in the payout queue!

Things really get going in the handicap chase that follows but Lord Accord is an absolute skinner on my side of the book. Not one single person has backed it with me which, for a Cheltenham handicap, is remarkable. A total payout of £115 on the race on my side, with just the places to reimburse.

That means I can crack on with the next and here comes the money for Pied Piper. Plenty of £200 and £400 bets and they don't have much worry as he quickens clear after the last to win. This payout is bigger, but it's nowhere near as big as it is for Dad's Lad in the next.

Dad's Lad is one of those horses that the public latch on to in a big way. One in three bets I take is on the Mullins charge. The writing is on the wall from some way out as he cruises into contention and, although the winning margin is under a length, the result never really seemed in doubt. £3k to pay out and a bad result.

And of course, the tenners and twenties merchants all back the outsider of three in the novice chase, so Chemical Energy is no good either. Encanto Bruno wins the last as favourite and that puts the nail in the coffin for many of the books. The dark is already descending as we pack away; it's time to head home...

- DM

All-Weather Analysis: Newcastle Racecourse

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For this fifth track in my all-weather series, we are heading north to Newcastle. Once again I will be using racing data from 1st January 2017 to 31st August 2022 in line with previous pieces. My data collection has been again been taken solely from the Geegeez Query Tool and therefore all profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price. We know that we can improve upon the baseline figures of SP and I will share Betfair SP data when appropriate.

I have written about Newcastle before in regards to running style, so I will be sharing just the data from the past 11 months as well as comparing with the long term figures. I have not analysed the draw in any depth before so I will start off by looking at those long term stats (2017 onwards) and take it from there. For both sections on running style and draw, my focus will be handicaps of eight or more runners only. This is in line with previous research in those areas.

Newcastle's Gosforth Park circuit uses a tapeta surface rather than the polytrack researched so far at Chelmsford, Kempton and Lingfield. Hence there may be some subtle differences especially when it comes to sires and gender bias. Anyway time to crack on and see what we can find out...

Running Style at Newcastle

Newcastle 5f Run Style Bias

Let’s start with the minimum trip of 5f. Here are the run style splits in 8+ runner handicaps covering the time since my last article (1st Oct ’21 to 31st Aug ’22):

 

 

In this recent time frame there have only been 29 qualifying races so this is a smallish sample The front running stats (L) are slightly stronger than the long term figures – from 1st Jan 2017 to 30th Sept 2021, front runners were successful around 16% of the time, compared with 19.5% since; so not a huge variance. If we compare all run style win percentages over the two time frames we get the following:

 

 

Essentially similar stats across the board so we can be fairly confident the run style bias to front runners is still there. As 5f biases go, it is not as strong as at some courses, but it is still significant. I would prefer to see my horse on or close to the early lead than taking up any other position in the field. What is more unusual about the overall stats is that prominent racers are not clearly second best: at most 5f trips they outperform midfield and hold up horses.

Now we know predicting the front runner in a race is far from an exact science, but assuming we had a crystal ball and had predicted all front runners since 2017 in 5f handicaps (8+ runners), we would have seen a profit to SP of £161.51 to £1 level stakes which equates to returns of just over 66p in the £.

 

Newcastle 6f Run Style Bias

Onto 6f now and the run style splits from 1/10/21 to 31/8/22:

 

 

A slight edge to front runners in the last 11 months. These front running stats are virtually identical to the long term data going back to 2017 where front runners have won 13.77% of the time. The mid-division runners have performed a little bit above their long term norm but this is probably a small statistical blip. For the record, here are the stats going back to the beginning of 2017:

 

 

As we saw over 5f, the stats for prominent racers, midfield and hold up runners are in the same sort of ballpark in terms of success rate.

Hence this 6f distance gives front runners a tangible edge, but nothing overly earth-shattering. It should be noted that front runners in the top three of the betting have been quite a potent combination winning nearly 30% of the time (63% win & placed).

 

Newcastle 7f Run Style Bias

Once we get to 7f the front running edge is minimal as these long term stats show:

 

 

As we can see hold up horses are becoming more competitive and although front runners still do best, this not something as punters we can really make count.

 

Newcastle 1 Mile Run Style Bias

Moving up one more furlong to 1 mile we get a change of ‘leadership’.

 

 

Front runners start to struggle and hold up horses have become the most successful group from a win strike rate perspective. In fact if you had backed all 1140 hold up horses over 1 mile you would have made a very small profit to SP. This is unusual, to say the least. It should also be mentioned that with races of 13 or 14 runners (max field size over 1 mile is 14) hold up horses seem to perform marginally better.

To conclude the run style section, front runners have a decent edge over 5f, a solid one over 6f, while once we get to 1 mile races preference is to be on a hold up horse.

 

The Draw at Newcastle

From 5f to 1 mile at Newcastle, the straight track is used (see below).

 

 

Hence if there was a draw bias at one of the distances you would hope that it would be replicated over the other three. Distances of 1m2f, 1m4f and 2m are run on the round course.

Newcastle 5f Draw Bias

A look at the minimum trip first. Here are the draw splits going back to 2017 for 8+ runner handicaps. There have been close to 200 races in this time frame so a very decent sample:

 

 

High draws seem to have the edge from a win perspective. However if we look at the percentage of rivals beaten (PRB) it appears extremely even.

 

 

I would trust the PRB figures more, as they give a score to every runner in every race. Ultimately, perhaps one would marginally prefer to be drawn higher than lower. For the record, stalls 1 and 2 both have PRB figures of 0.45 so it seems very low draws may be at a disadvantage. It will be interesting to see whether the remaining straight course draw stats correlate in any way.

 

Newcastle 6f Draw Bias

There have been 231 races at this track/trip combination since 2017 so another huge sample. Here are the draw splits in terms of win percentage:

 

 

Highest draws again come out on top in terms of win percentage. However, again if there is a high draw bias then it is a modest one. How about the PRB figures?

 

 

Middle draws nudge it here but, again, low draws fare worst. Combining both stats I would say that perhaps low draws are at a slight disadvantage over six furlongs here. Hence the 5f and 6f figures correlate quite well.

Newcastle 7f Draw Bias

Up another furlong now to seven-eighths of a mile. Will we see low draws the worst of the three sections once more? There are even more races over this distance since 2017 – up to 258:

 

 

Win percentages again correlate with 5f and 6f with high looking best and low looking worst. PRB figures now:

 

 

Low draws with the lowest value but middle once again edge high. Again the 7f stats do seem to suggest that lower draws are at a very slight disadvantage on the straight course although there is little in it across all three distances in terms of percentage of rivals beaten by draw third.

Newcastle 1 Mile Draw Bias

The final distance raced on the straight course is a mile. There have been 258 races over this distance, exactly the same number as over 7f!

 

 

High comes out marginally best for the fourth time in terms of win percentage. A look at the PRB figures now:

 

 

Low once again are marginally the worst; as with the previous three distances.

A final draw snippet to share about the mile distance is that the two lowest draws on the straight course (all distances) have PRBs of 0.46 and 0.47; the two highest draws are at 0.51 and 0.52. With this info, coupled with the data across each individual distance, it does seem that low draws are at a slight disadvantage on the straight course. It is going to be tough though to make this pay.

The chart below shows the rolling three stall average of percentage of rivals beaten for all 8+ runner handicaps on the straight course (5f to 1 mile):

 

 

 

Newcastle 1m4f Draw Bias

When it comes to the draw it is rare to find a potential draw bias when the distances extend past a mile. However, the 1m4f stats at Newcastle surprised me on two counts.

There have been 119 qualifying races going back to 2017 – here are the splits:

 

 

Comparing the top third to the bottom third we see roughly double the success rate in terms of wins. What makes this even more head scratching initially, is that lower draws are positioned next to the inside rail. Hence you would have thought if there was any bias here it may play to lower draws especially with the first left turn relatively early in the race. The PRB figures back up the win percentages as you will see:

 

 

When thinking more about this I wondered whether it was down to the fact that lower draws expended too much energy trying to maintain a position close to or up with the early pace. However when we combine the draw and run style map (PRB) any ‘pattern’ like that remains unclear – to me at least.

 

 

It is the 0.54 and 0.55 for prominent racers from middle draws and high draws that really scupper my theory. If those were both below 0.50 then there may be some mileage in my idea. Essentially this leaves me with no confident explanation. However, the following graph makes me think something is going on and that high draws do enjoy a draw edge over low draws:

 

 

As we can see, each year high draws have outperformed low draws from a Percentage of Rivals beaten (PRB) perspective. Only 2020 saw a relatively ‘close contest’, but high still came out on top. My conclusion is that I would rather be drawn higher than lower, even though I have no good explanation for what seems to be consistently happening. Draws 1 to 4 do have a poor record over 1m4f, both individually and as a group.

OK, time to move away from the draw. For the remainder of this article I will be looking at data for ALL races, not just 8+ runner handicaps (from 1st Jan 2017).

 

Trainers at Newcastle

This is my first look at a northern course in this series so I am hoping that some trainers who have not previously appeared will show themselves. Below are the trainers who have secured a win strike rate of 15% or more from a minimum of 100 runs (ALL race types included):

 

 

We see many of the usual all-weather ‘suspects’ – the Gosden stable, William Haggas and Roger Varian have appeared in all previous top AW trainer lists, while all bar one of the rest have appeared at least once. The new name here is Marco Botti. Botti’s overall win% across the six UK all weather courses stands at 12% whereas his Newcastle hit rate is 19%, so this is potentially a track he targets.

I am now going to share data for trainers who have saddled at least 350 runners at the course, in order to provide a broader trainer outlook for this course.

 

 

There are some well known northern trainers in this list with a couple actually sneaking into profit: Karl Burke and Jim Goldie. Goldie also has an A/E index of just over 1.00.

Here are some interesting trainer facts I’ve come across:

  1. Several trainers are in profit if you focus on their runners from the top three in the betting, including Charlie Appleby, Robert Cowell, Archie Watson, William Haggas, Saeed bin Suroor, Charlie Hills, Michael Dods, James Bethell, Michael Wigham and Richard Fahey.
  1. The Gosden stable has run 59 2yos of which 21 have won, equating to an impressive strike rate of 35.6%. It has not been a profitable avenue, however, losing a small percentage to SP. For the record you would have broken even backing to BSP.
  1. For profitable 2yos you need to look no further than Andrew Balding whose ten 2yos have provided six winners (SR 60%) for a profit of £14.33 (ROI +143.3%). (Note from editor: he has had three 2yo runners since this article was collated and two more have won, making it 8 from 13; the other one ran 2nd at 11/1).
  1. William Haggas has made a profit with his 3yo runners; his non-handicappers have marginally out-performed his handicappers producing returns to SP of 13p in the £ (win SR% 36.2%).
  1. In class 5 or 6 contests, Haggas has had 89 runners of which 31 have won (SR 34.8%) for an SP profit of £16.25 (ROI +18.3%).
  1. Roger Varian’s record with 3yo non-handicappers virtually mirrors Haggas - a 35.7% win SR% producing returns of 12p in the £ to SP.
  1. When Hollie Doyle has ridden for Archie Watson they have combined to secure 16 wins from 46 (SR 34.8%) for a profit of £21.83 (ROI +47.5%).

 

Jockeys at Newcastle

I'm not going into great detail about Newcastle course jockeys, but I thought it would be worth sharing the riders who have secured an A/E index in excess of 1.00 at the course (100+ rides):

 

 

It is not surprising to see Hollie Doyle in there considering her record when riding for Archie Watson, but some of the other names are less predictable perhaps. These are jockeys that seem to ride the track well and I would see it as a positive if they were riding a horse that I fancied at this course, especially considering the pace judgement needed at longer distances on the straight course (seven furlongs and a mile).

Newcastle Gender bias

I have noted a gender bias at each of the all-weather courses I have studied thus far. Here are Newcastle’s comparative figures:

 

 

The three Polytrack courses I looked at in previous articles indicated that, when considering the top three in the betting, females and males seem to compete on a level playing field. Once we got to 4th to 6th in the market, males started to dominate; likewise with bigger priced runners (7th+ in the betting). At Newcastle on this different (tapeta) surface, we see a similar pattern with the top three in the betting and 7+ in the betting, however the 4th to 6th figures are more even:

 

 

It seems therefore we need to generally wary about longer-priced female runners as previous AW course data has shown. Also don’t be put off if a female runner is near the head of the betting.

 

Newcastle Market factors

Let's now take a look at the win strike rates for different ranks in the betting, starting with favourites and moving down to position 7th or more:

 

 

This is a pattern we would expect and mirrors other courses. Favourites have lost just over 13p in the £ to SP (8p loss to BSP), which is the poorest return of all the courses seen so far. Losses are similar in both non-handicap and handicap races for these favourites.

A look at market rank A/E indices next:

 

 

Third favourites and fifth favourites have good figures and this has probably impacted on the 4th in the betting A/E index. However, with favourites as a rule being a little weak at Newcastle, there may be some value elsewhere. Even allowing for the relatively poor record of 4th favourites with 3rd and 5th favourites, these three groups combined would have yielded a 5p in the £ positive return to BSP.

My focus as ever would be on the top five in the betting in most races, and I would try to look for races with a favourite that looked vulnerable. From there I would hope to find a horse 2nd to 5th in the market that might offer up some value.

 

Sire Performance at Newcastle

Here are the top 20 sires in terms of strike rate since 2017. (To qualify – 100 runs or more; and must have had runners somewhere in the UK during 2022):

 

 

There are, of course, many well known sires in the list, but it is interesting to note Shamardal not making the cut after he had appeared in all three previous UK AW articles. Obviously little surprise to see Dubawi with a good strike rate; likewise Frankel. However, Frankel progeny have been very poor value losing 44p in the £.

In terms of damsires, Shamardal does make the top 10 by strike rate and here is the full list:

 

 

All ten damsires have A/E indices over 1.00, which is a rare sight. This winter it might be worth noting any runner whose damsire appears in this table: I would see it as a positive.

 

Newcastle Horses for courses

Our final port of call, as always, is to look at some horses that have excelled at the course since 2017. To qualify for the list each entry must have won at least four races at the track with a strike rate of 25% or more. Further, they must have raced somewhere in the UK in 2022. Here are the horses that qualify, listed alphabetically. I have included a PRB column, too:

 

 

19 horses make the list so keep an eye out for any of these over the coming months. They clearly like the track and, if some other factors are in their favour, they are definitely worth close scrutiny.

 

Newcastle Takeaways

But before winding up, let's review the ‘main takeaways’:

  1. Over 5f, front runners have a fair edge; over 6f, front runners also have a small edge;
  2. Over 1 mile hold up horses have the best record of all running styles;
  3. Low draws seem at a slight disadvantage on the straight course (5f-1mile). High draws look marginally best overall;
  4. Over 1m4f higher draws seem to have the edge; draws 1 to 4 have a relatively poor record overall;
  5. Andrew Balding 2yo runners are quite rare but they have an excellent record;
  6. Note if Archie Watson books Hollie Doyle to ride;
  7. Male horses have the edge over female ones when it comes to bigger priced runners;
  8. Favourites have performed a little below par. Horses 2nd to 5th in the betting seem the group on which focus;
  9. Dubawi has a decent record as a sire and a damsire.

 

And that's all for this Newcastle All-Weather Analysis. I hope after reading this, your punting at Gosforth Park will be a little more profitable than perhaps it was before. Good luck.

- DR

 

Monday Musings: The Thinker

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It took a fair amount of thought before Auguste Rodin was confirmed a runner for Saturday’s Vertem Futurity at Doncaster, writes Tony Stafford. I understand for much of the morning Michael Tabor was resigned to his and the rest of the Coolmore partners’ best 2023 Derby candidate missing the race through the predicted heavy ground.

Fortunately, Ryan Moore was on the comfortable opening race winner, Totally Charming for the George Boughey stable, and with the positivity of a successful rider, his report to Aidan O’Brien reduced the potential worry of connections. No doubt the trainer’s own punctilious inspection of the nearside portion on his customary walking the course – largely unoccupied on the first day of the meeting – also figured importantly in the decision.

Wide courses like Doncaster often provoke differences of opinion and five of the eight jockeys preferred to stay on the far side. That left only three – two for Ballydoyle and the Frankie Dettori-ridden Gosden runner, the heavily-backed second favourite Epictetus, staying stands side, too.

What O’Brien clearly did not want was a slow-run tactical race and Wayne Lordan was deputed to set a solid pace on the rail on well-supported Salt Lake City, ahead of Epictetus and Auguste Rodin. David Probert, on Andrew Balding’s good Newbury winner Stormbuster, fulfilled a similar role on the other side.

As Karl Burke’s Holloway Boy came to the front on his side, Ryan appreciated he needed to make a move and the smooth way he came outside Dettori and eased clear, seemed to signal “race over”.

There was an element, not for the first time this racing season, redolent of the 2014 2,000 Guineas. Just as Night Of Thunder had crossed the entire Rowley Mile that May afternoon before beating John Gosden’s Kingman and O’Brien’s Australia, now Holloway Boy started to head towards the latest would-be Classic stars of the same two stables, from his position at the front of the other group.

Unfortunately, once he got across, Ryan was already off and gone while Epictetus, a son of Kingman, stayed on better than the Burke runner, who was still a decent third. There was also a Night Of Thunder aside, with his son Captain Wierzba finishing sixth for Ralph Beckett.

There can be few better maidens around, at least not one that has raced four times, as the Roger Teal colt, Dancing Magic. Fourth behind Keeneland bound Silver Knott and Epictetus in the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket, he filled the same place when heading up the remaining far side quartet.

We have got to the time in top level breeding and racing in Europe when the direct influence of the deceased Galileo is inevitably waning as his final crops come on stream. While he did have a representative here in Salt Lake City, it was as a broodmare sire that he intruded on the Group 1 race this time.

As the eleventh winner for Aidan O’Brien of the last British Group 1 of the year, beating Sir Henry Cecil’s ten, Auguste Rodin is by the late and equally (as Galileo) lamented Japanese multiple champion Deep Impact, sire of 2,000 Guineas winner Saxon Warrior, out of Rhododendron.

It was something of a risk that few owner-breeding groups would be prepared to undertake to send a top-class Group 1 winning mare to Japan to be covered by a stallion so relatively late in his career.   Coolmore did and it was fortuitous as Deep Impact preceded his Irish counterpart by a year in his demise, Auguste Rodin coming from his final crop.

The need for outcrosses for the host of Galileo mares within the Coolmore orbit is a constant search. Rhododendron, of course, like her contemporary and regular adversary within the fold, Hydrangea, was bred to the famed Galileo on a Pivotal cross. Strangely, the two names also belong to my two favourite flowers!

I have a friend with a winning young daughter of Galileo (actually a filly – she won’t pass five until January when she expects her first foal) also from a winning Pivotal mare, who will be delighted how Rhododendron has clicked with a superstar first time up.

His mare has gone to Ten Sovereigns and if the yearlings by him on offer at the October Yearling Sales were anything to go by, he could soon be following the example of fellow Scat Daddy stallions No Nay Never, Caravaggio, US Navy Flag, Sioux Nation and, in the US, unbeaten Triple Crown hero Justify, by producing top runners.

My friend is the banker and businessman Bernard Kantor, the man behind the ten-year Derby sponsorship of Investec. That inevitably meant for him an annual early June encounter with the late Queen and almost as often with Messrs Magnier, Tabor, Smith and O’Brien among many others.

If Bernard is lucky enough to get a colt with his first product of Sans Pretention, a lightly raced staying filly with William Haggas, and resists the temptation to sell him, how he would love to get him into the race that was his annual preoccupation throughout each spring.

As a sire, Galileo often confounded conventional breeding theory when adding unexpected stamina to sprinting fillies off the track. Who is to say that Galileo mares might have a reverse influence, stretching out the distance capabilities of sprint sires like Middle Park and July Cup winner Ten Sovereigns? How the Coolmore boys would love that!

In a previous life, I happened upon the famous Auguste Rodin sculpture of The Thinker in the Rodin Museum in Paris. I just love that image of a naked man so deep in thought and oblivious to anything else. Like racehorse trainers, apart from the nakedness of course.

This probably happened only a year or so after the Arthur Stephenson steeplechaser of that name had won the Gold Cup after the day’s racing was delayed by a sudden snowfall and needed thawing out, and the next year finished third in the Grand National.

*

We get used to Arab owners paying massive money for horses but this year one Dubai owner, who has had an increasing involvement in the sport, has shown when it comes to thinking about it he has the game sorted as much as anyone can.

I first met Ahmad Al Shaikh when he was a constant part of the Sheikh Mohammed entourage in, it must have been the late 1980’s or early 90’s. His role was the official in-house journalist providing domestic reports on the Maktoums’ racing achievements. He’s come a long way since then and has around 20 horses of his own in training now.

Owen Burrows described him as being a “big supporter of my stable” after Hello Deira won a Redcar handicap last month. Earlier in the summer I stood talking to him in the Epsom paddock before the Dash and he introduced me to his friend, saying: “This is Saeed Suhail, he owns the favourite.”

It was only after Desert Crown did indeed win the Derby for Sir Michael Stoute and Richard Kingscote that I realised he hadn’t mentioned his own Derby runner, Hoo Ya Mal, the Andrew Balding trained 150-1 shot who followed the winner home.

He needed to think quickly and within ten days he had parted company with his second cheaply-bought placed horse in the classic, for £1.2 million at the pre-Ascot sale in Kensington Palace Gardens, not bad for a £40k yearling. That was also the yearling purchase price of Khalifa Sat, his previous Derby runner-up with Balding, a 50-1 shot that followed O’Brien’s Serpentine home in 2020.

But on Saturday in France, Ahmad enjoyed his best day in 20 years of racehorse ownership when his colt Dubai Mile, trained by Charlie and Mark Johnston, won the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud over ten furlongs.

A few years ago, I sat in the dining room with some Johnston owners in Kingsley House, Middleham, feasting on the home-produced beef from their own herd. The same two Group 1 races were featured, and we watched them. I couldn’t help remembering that French Fifteen had won the other Group 1 on the corresponding day in 2011, over a mile.

Ahmad has only a day to collect his thoughts in much the same way he needed to back in early June. He says: “He is in the sale on Tuesday. We will enter him for the Breeders’ Cup on Monday <today> and if we get a good offer, I will sell him.”

So, either it will be another seven-figure return, this time on an even smaller investment of just 20 grand, or a date with Auguste Rodin. I think you can say, Ahmad will be on a winner either way.

Just to gauge how shrewd is this one-time journalist, armed with the proceeds of that big midsummer profit on Hoo Ya Mal, a Book 1 Tattersalls purchase, he was again in action two weeks ago. I’ve looked down the list of all nine days and the 2097 lots (less withdrawals) and encountered the name Ahmad Al Shaikh only once.

That’s not to say he didn’t enlist any of his trainers or associates to act on his behalf in an attempt at sales obfuscation. He doesn’t seem that type to me, though. Book 1 averaged almost 300 grand per yearling: Ahmad bought Lot 164 on the first day, a colt by Almanzor, winner of the French Derby, Champion Stakes and Irish Champion, for just 50,000gns. He buys to try to get a Derby winner. Watch out Aidan, this Thinker and his bargain buys may be coming after you, if not next year, maybe in 2024.

- TS

Anthony Honeyball Stable Tour 2022/23

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With the National Hunt season upon us once more, the team here at geegeez.co.uk is thrilled to once again be sponsoring the upwardly mobile yard of Anthony Honeyball.

Operating out of Potwell Farm, set in a beautiful nook on the Dorset / Somerset border, Anthony and Rachael have been gradually improving both the quality and quantity of horses they race; and this season they have their biggest and brightest squad yet.

They're already off the mark with seven winners this season at time of writing and, in the table below, you'll find Anthony's thoughts and hopes for the campaign ahead.

The comments can be sorted by any of the column headings, and may be searched from the box to the right just below this sentence.

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NAMEColour/SexOWNERBREEDINGCOMMENT
ASK LILEEN (IRE) 2017br. mPotwell Racing Syndicate ISOLDIER OF FORTUNE (IRE) X TRENDY NATIVE (GB) (OVERBURY (IRE))She was placed in two Irish point to points before winning her third start in commanding fashion by 6 lengths (the 2nd has won since and sold to Lucinda Russell). Her dam is sister to 7 winners and the grand dam Celtic Native was a top notch race mare. She’s a good looking quality mare who may well kick off in a bumper but I should imagine will quite quickly move on to obstacles as she’s got size and scope.
BING BELLE (GB) 2019b.fMr and Mrs Jack BarberROYAL ANTHEM (USA) x ROXY BELLE (GB) (BLACK SAM BELLAMY (IRE))Her dam was 2nd in a point to point and is sister to the two time winner Princess Roxy. She’s already had a few short stints in training and is quite forward for a 3 year old so we will be aiming her at either the national hunt juvenile hurdle series or a juvenile bumper this Autumn.
BLACKJACK MAGIC (GB) 2015b.gHayward, Walker, Paterson and O'GormanBLACK SAM BELLAMY (IRE) X ONE WILD NIGHT (GB) (RAKAPOSHI KING (GB))New to us this season (formerly with Jack Barber), he won two of his four completed starts over hurdles last season and is now rated 126. He jumps well and handles proper Winter ground so this season we will now turn his attention to chasing.
BOB BACKUS (IRE) 2015b.gDecimus Racing IVMILAN (GB) X BORO BEE (IRE) (BOB BACK (USA))He got the hang of hurdling in his last two starts in the 2020 / 21 season winning well at Plumpton before finishing a solid 2nd there again on final start (winner went on to win 5 more races and the third 25 lengths behind). Unfortunately he picked up a tendon strain and had to sit out last season. The plan will be to resume over hurdles this term and it’s likely that he’ll kick on over fences at some point during the Winter.
BOHEMIAN LAD (IRE) 2018b.gDECIMUS RACING IXMAHLER (GB) x REHILL LASS(IRE) (SHERNAZAR (GB))Out of a bumper winning mare and brother to Dolly’s Destination who has won 4 including a bumper and 3 hurdle races, as well as achieving black type when she was 2nd in a mares listed handicap hurdle at Killarney (peak rating 127). He proved to be very straightforward but a little backward last season and by the time he was anywhere near a run the firmer ground took over and we put him away for a Summer break. We will probably kick off in a bumper but he jumps well so may not hang around long in that sphere.
BORDERLANDS (IRE) 2019br.gThe Mighty SixGETAWAY (GER) X KNOCKNABROGUE (IRE) (AFZAL (IRE))A very good looking, well put together athletic youngster, who is also brother to three winners. We broke him in, cantered and schooled him in May since when he’s had a Summer break. He will be prepared for a bumper or two between February and mid April.
BREAKING COVER (IRE) 2018b.gCartwright, Langford, Redknapp, SaundersGETAWAY (GER) X PEACE AND THE CITY (FR)(ELUSIVE CITY (USA))His dam is sister to 4 winners including the Grade 1 Triumph hurdle winner Peace And Co with a career high of 159, and another black type performer Piccolino . Breaking Cover was 2nd in his Irish point to point, 2 lengths behind a horse who subsequently made £150,000 to join the Willie Mullins yard. He jumped and travelled beautifully in that point to point and looks a smart horse. He’ll kick off in bumpers this Autumn.
CAPE VIDAL (GB) 2017b.gPotwell Racing Syndicate IIIKAYF TARA (GB) X MIDNIGHT MINX (GB) (MIDNIGHT LEGEND (GB))His dam Midnight Minx was a smart performer for us, winning 3 bumpers and a hurdle and she’s passed that ability on to this lad. He was a very impressive winner on his debut in a bumper at Ffos Las at the end of May. He may next be aimed at a listed bumper at Cheltenham in November.
CAPTAIN CLAUDE (IRE) 2017b.gDecimus Racing VSOLDIER OF FORTUNE (IRE) X PRINCESS SUPREME (IRE) (SUPREME LEADER (GB))Brother to two winners (peak ratings 129 & 131) and got off the mark himself when winning a bumper at Ffos Las last Winter. He needed the experience of his first three runs over hurdles but hopefully now after another Summer under his belt he can capitalise on his low mark of 80 this Autumn. I suspect he’ll step up in distance and he’s proven he can cope with soft winter ground conditions.
COCO BRAVE (IRE) 2019b.fCartwright, Tomkies Syndicate (SHARES AVAILABLE)COURT CAVE (IRE)X COMING HOME (FR) (EXIT TO NOWHERE (USA) )She is a very attractive, athletic filly who is sister to 5 winners including 2 achieving black type status. Three of the winners have NH ratings of 135 / 145 & 146 (the other two were 116 & 122). She was broken in, cantered and schooled in the Spring then went out for her Summer break. We will prepare her for bumpers this season.
CONCLUDING ACT (GB) 2019b.gFOR SALEBLACK SAM BELLAMY (IRE) X GAN ON (GB) (MISSED FLIGHT (GB))His dam was quite smart and a great jumper, she won 4 for us and reached a career high rating of 134. The only sibling to run so far was Nocturnal Myth who won a handicap hurdle at Plumpton. We are targeting an early start with this lad in NH Juvenile hurdles or juvenile bumpers.
COQUELICOT (FR) 2016b / br. mgeegeez.co.uk PASOLDIER OF FORTUNE (IRE) X MOSCOW NIGHTS (FR) (PEINTRE CELEBRE (USA))She got off the mark over hurdles last season in a £10,000 mares handicap hurdle at Chepstow. Only the three runs in total last term though, due to some health niggles that she just couldn’t fully shake off. Still loads of upside to her off her current hurdles mark having now got the hang of jumping. She may also have another run in a maiden on the flat as I think she would be very competitive in staying handicaps.
CREDO (IRE) 2015b.mPotwell Racing Syndicate IIFAME AND GLORY (GB) x TASMANI(FR) (TURGEON (USA))A maiden point to point victory and 3 national hunt wins to date (2 bumpers and a maiden hurdle). Even though she won her maiden hurdle last season and ran very respectably a few times in defeat, I have to say overall she had me scratching my head . To me she ran like her breathing was affecting her so we eventually decided to give her a breathing op and she duly won with authority on her first start after that. Just as we thought we’d cracked it she reverted back to mediocre form again. She obviously has the talent and has what you’d think is a very workable mark of 107 to kick on with this season plus a switch to fences is also under consideration.
DEAR RALPHY (IRE) 2016b.gMr J. PikeWESTERNER (GB) X LETTERWOMAN(IRE) (FOURSTARS ALLSTAR (USA))Half brother to the useful The Kings Writ (career high 141), he shaped with lots of promise in both his bumpers last season and in the latest one he was only beaten 6 lengths when finishing 4th having made most of the running. I think we will have one more crack at a bumper as he’s more than good enough to win one before heading over hurdles for the remainder of the season. Lots of potential in this son of Westerner and will hopefully end up a decent chaser later on in his career.
DOCTOR FOLEY (IRE) 2017b.gDolan-Abrahams, Newton, Farrer.MALINAS (GER) X QUARRYANNA (IRE) (MILAN (GB))New to us from Jack Barber, he was bought after a promising 3rd in an Irish point to point that worked out well as the 2nd in that race, Pembroke, won a bumper last season at Huntingdon by 11 lengths. He didn’t set the world alight on his first two starts over hurdles but that said his season was over very early due to an injury so whether that was niggling in the background we don’t know. He needs another run over hurdles for a handicap mark so once that’s out of the way we could have a lot of fun in handicap hurdles or even straight over fences as he’s a very well put together strong horse.
DOYANNIE (IRE) 2014ch.mBarber, French & ShortlandDOYEN (IRE) X ANNIE MAY (IRE)(ANSHAN (GB))New to us from Jack Barber, a big strong mare who has been placed in bumpers over hurdles and over fences but has not got her head in front as yet in 13 attempts. A very solid second at Exeter over fences last season before looking a certain winner at Taunton next time out but then collared late on. Usually travels strongly in her races, but sometimes not the most resolute so we decided to do a breathing op to help her out and give her a little more confidence. Her brother has won a bumper for Willie Mullins and was 3rd in the grade 1 champion bumper at the Cheltenham festival last season so she’ll be a good broodmare prospect one day (hopefully after a handful of wins to her name !!!!).
DOYEN FOR MONEY (IRE) 2018b/br. GMr H. KingstonDOYEN (IRE) X MRS JAY DEE (IRE) (HERON ISLAND (IRE)An athletic forward going individual who made most of the running on debut in an Irish point to point and went on to win easily by 7 lengths. We bought him at a Cheltenham sale after his win and were trying desperately to run him in a bumper last Spring but the weather wouldn’t play ball so we put him away for this season. He will kick off in bumpers.
DREAMING BLUE (GB) 2017b.gMr R W DevlinSHOWCASING (GB) X GOT TO DREAM (GB) (DUKE OF MARMALADE (IRE))He was back in action last season having been off the track for nearly a year, and posted some respectable efforts most notably when winning a maiden hurdle at Fontwell ahead of two subsequent winners. He backed that win up with a solid 3rd next time out, again at Fontwell, beaten only 3 lengths. He reached a peak rating of 119, ended last season on 117 so may well be competitive in handicap hurdles this Winter at around 2m 2f on soft ground and we may venture over fences at some point.
FANFARON DINO (FR) 2015g.gMr John P. McManusDR DINO (FR) X KADJARA (FR) (SILVER RAINBOW (GB))Lightly raced half brother to “Epatante”, he’s been a bit hit and miss so far but rounded off last season recording his second career win in good style. We’ve been patient and given him plenty of time to fill his frame so I’m hopeful off a mark still at 100 he can really progress this season and fulfil his promise.
FERRET JEETER (GB) 2017ch.gMr R.J. MatthewsRECHARGE (IRE) X HALO FLORA (GB) (ALFLORA (IRE))He is a half brother to three winners including the useful Sizable Sam (4 wins so far / peak rating 131), Raffle Ticket a maiden hurdle winner with a peak rating of 128 and Fairly Grey a novice hurdle winner with a peak rating of 130. He was very backward early on when broken in, but has improved after every break and will now target an early Autumn bumper run.
FIRESTREAM (GB) 2017b.gBuckingham, Chapman, Langford & RitzemaYEATS (IRE) X SWINCOMBE FLAME (GB) (EXIT TO NOWHERE (USA))4 runs in bumpers last season, placed in three of them and winning very impressively at Exeter by 11 lengths. We’ve always thought a lot of him at home and I’m very hopeful he will make it to graded level events in novice hurdles this season.
FORTUITOUS FAVOUR (IRE) 2018b.fDecimus Racing XI (SHARES AVAILABLE)SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (IRE) x NORTHWOOD MILAN (IRE) (MILAN (GB))Her dam is sister to no less than 8 winners including two at black type level and three rated in the 140 - 149 range. She did very well to win on her debut in a juvenile bumper at Wetherby last season, she hadn’t been away for a racecourse gallop and in fact the race was the first time she’d galloped in anger on grass let alone coping with the long journey up there. She couldn’t follow that effort up with another run due to a cold which held her up then drying ground in the Spring. That extra time will have done her no harm as she’s still only 4yrs old. The initial plan is to line her up for a listed bumper but she jumps superbly well so will soon be going hurdling.
FORTUNA LIGNA (IRE) 2017b.mOwners For Owners Fortuna Ligna (SHARES AVAILABLE)SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (IRE) x QUIET THOUGHT(IRE) (BOB BACK (USA))She was very green at Warwick first time out but rattled home and was a fast finishing 5th passing 7-8 horses up the home straight !! That race has worked out really well with the first two having picked up black type since. She’s a mare I like a lot and should go very close in a bumper this Autumn. If she were to win on her return we would probably look at a Listed bumper next or otherwise switch to hurdling.
FORWARD PLAN (IRE) 2016br. gThe SteeplechasersVALIRANN (FR) X CULMORE NATIVE (IRE) (BE MY NATIVE (USA))Irish point to point winner who was 2nd in a bumper last season as well as another two 2nds to his name in handicap hurdles in May before his Summer break. A little unlucky not hitting the mark but showed in his last two starts that he’s heading in the right direction and we should be able to place him to win in the Autumn. It might be that win comes over fences as he’ll turn his attention to the larger obstacles sooner rather than later.
FOUNTAINS CHIEF (GB) 2016b.gThe Fountains PartnershipNATIVE RULER (GB) X TIGERALLEY (GB) (REVOQUE (IRE))He was placed in a bumper last April and went on to win three in a row over hurdles during the Summer. He’s progressed really well and we may now let him take his chance in either a valuable handicap hurdle or the grade 2 Persian War Novices Hurdle at Chepstow in October.
GABRIEL'S GETAWAY (IRE) 2017b.gBuckingham, Chapman, Kingston & LangfordGETAWAY (GER) X CHOSEN DESTINY (IRE) (WELL CHOSEN (GB))A horse that I've always felt posesses plenty of talent, but to date he's not really shown it on the track except for a very respectable effort when 4th in a bumper at Ludlow. He's always been electric over bumpers at home and did jump well on hurdles debut, so I'm hopeful that he can build on that effort and be competitive in Maiden Hurdles this Autumn. Plenty of size and scope so I suspect we'll see the best of him when he tackles fences.
GETMETOTHEMOON (GB) 2019b.f.Unity Farm Holiday Centre LtdPETHER'S MOON (IRE) X GERTIE GETAWAY (IRE) (GETAWAY (GER))Her dam was placed in a bumper and is herself sister to two winners including the Grade 2 placed Denise’s Profiles. She will be trained for juvenile bumpers or the new series of National Hunt Juvenile hurdles which are particularly valuable in the mares only category.
GOOD LOOK CHARM (FR) 2016b.mThe Isle of Blue and WhiteCOKORIKO (FR) X UNE D'EX (FR)(BRIER CREEK (USA))She had a very good first season with us with two placed runs as well as winning twice from 6 starts. She kicked off finishing 3rd of 18 in a mares bumper at Aintree, went on to win her mares novices hurdle at Hereford then a £20,000 mares handicap hurdle at Exeter. I think she’s still on a very workable mark off 115 and I’m very much looking forward to taking advantage of that mark over fences this season.
GUSTAVIAN (IRE) 2015b.gDecimus Racing IMAHLER (GB) X GRANGE OSCAR(IRE) (OSCAR (IRE))He has won 3 times and been 2nd or 3rd 11 times from 15 career runs, so to date he’s been a fantastic fun horse for his syndicate . Last season he would have added to his tally of wins but for some untimely blunders in each novice chase. Overall his jumping was more than adequate but those mistakes certainly cost him. That said he ended the season with a tremendous 2nd in a £40,000 chase at Uttoxeter and the key positive is that he remains a novice for this season so we have lots of options and last season’s experience under his belt. My main hope if his jumping really comes together is that he can run in the Grade 2 3m 5f novice chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
HATOS (FR) 2017b.gHats Off To HatosDIAMOND BOY (FR) X SANTALISA (FR) (LAVERON (GB))Last season he shaped with lots of promise on debut for us when 3rd in a bumper at Chepstow first time out. He then went on to win his maiden hurdle again at Chepstow, but unfortunately in doing so he struck into his fetlock joint which sidelined him for the majority of the remainder of the season. He squeezed in one more run at Hexham but with the ground drying out he never really looked comfortable that day so best put a line through that effort. I think we will run in one handicap hurdle early on to get his eye in again before turning his attention to chasing. He seems to handle soft / heavy ground very well so should be at his best in the Winter when the mud's flying again.
I GIORNI (IRE) 2017b.mThe Soldiers of FortuneARCADIO (GER) X SHECHANGEDHERMIND (IRE) (KOTASHAAN(FR))Full sister to the two time winner Justmemyselfandi (career high rating 133). She won on debut in an Irish point to point at the end of January, and we bought her at the Cheltenham sales. We were very pleased with her ability and attitude at home but by the time we were ready to run in a bumper the ground dried up and stayed dry so we didn’t take any chances and put her away for a Summer break. Exciting prospect who will kick off in a bumper this Autumn.
JAIL NO BAIL (IRE) 2017b.gBryan Drew & Friends, Chapman & KingstonMAHLER (GB) X KITTYS OSCAR (IRE) (OSCAR (IRE))His 1/2 brother was placed in a bumper and won twice over hurdles with a career high rating of 127. His dam is sister to 3 winners, two with black type, in particular Saxophone who won a Grade 3 hurdle and two Grade 3 chases. Last season was a write off with a few issues affecting his preparation so we really hope for a clear run and find out what he’s made of this time round. I’ll consider starting him off in a bumper but having missed that campaign last season and the fact he jumps very well, and has already schooled well over fences, we may well kick on in a maiden hurdle.
JEPECK (IRE) 2009b.gMr J. PikeWESTERNER (GB) X JENNY'S JEWEL (IRE) (BE MY NATIVE (USA))Winner of 5 and placed in 19 of his 33 National Hunt starts as well as £123,000 in prize money; and 10 wins from 19 starts in point to points so somewhat of a legend !! He started last season slowly, but in his third run at the age of 13 he bolted up in a handicap hurdle at Wincanton - on this occasion all conditions finally came right for him - the ground was soft / heavy, over the distance of 2m 5f. He went on to be placed in all of his next 4 races in good company off marks around 130. We will see how he trains on this season, all being well and given his favoured testing ground he should continue running to a high level and pick up another win or two.
JITTERBUG GEORDIE (GB) 2018g.gMrs S. J. MaltbyGEORDIELAND (FR) X DANCINGTILMIDNIGHT (GB) (MIDNIGHT LEGEND (GB))New to us from Jack Barber - his dam won two point to points and had two seconds from 5 starts for Richard Barber before going on to win two hurdle races. This lad made his debut in a bumper at Wincanton last season finishing 9th of 12 runners, and he made a bit of a noise in his wind that day so he’s had a breathing op since joining us. We hope that along with maturing and filling his big frame this will result in a big step forward.
JUGGERNAUT (FR) 2019b.gMr M Chapman and Ms G LangfordSPANISH MOON (USA) X SACOLEVA (FR) (LAVIRCO (GER))This half brother to two winners is a compact, neat and athletic sort who has done plenty of early prep work to give him every chance of being ready for juvenile bumpers or the new national hunt juvenile hurdle race program starting in the Autumn. The NH juvenile hurdles are for horses that haven’t run on the flat or in bumpers and are quite valuable so a good alternative to the usual starting point in bumpers.
JUKEBOX JAZZ (IRE) 2019g.fMr R. W. HugginsJUKEBOX JURY (IRE) X SWEETHEART (GB) (SINNDAR (IRE))Full sister to the 6 time winning black type performer Jukebox Jive (peak rating 100 on the flat - whilst trained here at Potwell Farm and 140 over hurdles). Her dam, Sweetheart was a superb race mare with 7 wins in total to her name including a Grade 2 win over hurdles (peak rating 140) and the winner of a big staying handicap on the flat at Glorious Goodwood (peak rating 80 on the flat). This filly was a little weak during the early part of the Summer so given a little more time out in the field to strengthen up and prepare for her debut on the flat this Autumn.
KEEPITFROMBECKY (IRE) 2018b.gBarber, Braid, French and ReesDIAMOND BOY (FR) X TOBETALL (GB) (TOBOUGG (IRE))New to us from Jack Barber, his dam was placed in a bumper and she’s produced Smoke Man who has won 8 point to points to date amd was 4th in a 4 mile Cheltenham Hunter Chase, The Grey Monty who won an Irish point to point and subsequently made £95,000 and has so far gone on to finish 3rd in a maiden hurdle, and the 3 time winner Arcade Attraction with a peak rating of 116. His dam is also sister to 6 winners including Aintree and Cheltenham festival winner Attaglance. He was a bit backward last season and given time to develop so I’m really excited to see what he can do this time round.
KILBEG KING (IRE) 2015b.gM.R.Chapman, E.Jones & H.KingstonDOYEN (IRE) x PRAYUWIN DRUMMER (IRE) (PRESENTING (GB))He won his bumper very impressively on debut for us under rules. That bumper worked out well with subsequent 125, 119 and 132 horses following him home. Unfortunately he picked up a tendon strain when being prepared for novice hurdling last season, and after rest and recuperation he's now back in training and getting ready for novice hurdles. He jumps very well so I’m very hopeful that he’ll make up into a high class novice hurdler this term.
KONIGIN ISABELLA (GER) 2018b.fgeegeez.co.uk KIISFAHAN (GER) X KONIGIN CALA (GER) (CALL ME BIG (GER))She ran with lots of promise in her first two bumpers particularly when staying on well in 3rd at Newbury (beaten 3 lengths - the winner won a listed bumper at Cheltenham next time out). She was a little disappointing in her next two starts, this may have been due to health at that time but we also decided she needed a breathing op so that has been done and I’d be very hopeful that she’ll continue her progression over hurdles this season. Another Summer break under her belt will have done her the world of good too as she’s still only 4yrs old.
LE COEUR NET (FR) 2012ch.gWessex Racing ClubNETWORK (GER) X SILVERWOOD (FR) (GARDE ROYALE (IRE))5 wins from 36 starts, his career high was 126 and last season is the first time the handicapper has really got hold of him. He still managed two 2nds and is now down on a mark of 103 which is his lowest for quite some time. This would lead you to think we could have some fun with him again this season. Either way he’s been a lovely horse for the yard and his owners over the years.
LILITH (IRE) 2015b.mDECIMUS VISTOWAWAY (GB) x FLIRTHING AROUND (IRE) (FLEMENSFIRTH (USA))She had a fantastic season with one 3rd, four 2nds and two wins from 9 starts. You could argue she has been quite frustrating up to March 1st as we kept hitting the bar finishing 2nd on four occasions to that point but then came a super performance in winning at Newbury followed by another win out in Ireland at the Punchestown festival !! She’s already qualified for a £35,000 mares chase at Hereford in December (2nd in that last season) and with her mark of 122, races like that still look the right option. She will also head back to Punchestown again in the Spring. Obviously if she progresses again through this season we could be looking at Listed and Graded mares chases. Both mares handicap and graded chases are available at the Punchestown Festival.
LILY THE PINK (GB) 2014b.mWessex Racing ClubMALINAS (GER) X CARRIGEEN QUEEN (IRE) (DARNAY (GB))3 wins and 7 placed efforts from her 13 runs so she’s been a particularly consistent and solid mare for us (has progressed to 118). Unfortunately she missed last season due to a tendon strain - that should be behind her now and we can hopefully kick on this time around. Probably start off over hurdles before trying her over fences in mares only events. She’s half sister to another solid mare in the yard Midnight Callisto and both are out of a half sister to Gold Cup winner Minella Indo so lovely broodmare prospects later on.
MARCO ISLAND (IRE) 2017b.gBuckingham, Chapman, Langford & RitzemaMAHLER (GB) x FLORIDA BELLE (IRE) (FLORIDA SON (GB))He took us a little by surprise when winning his bumper on debut at Chepstow, that was a lovely performance and he backed it up when winning a maiden hurdle again at Chepstow two runs later (the 2nd and 3rd won next time out). A big horse who should still be maturing and filling his sizeable frame so you’d hope he’ll improve plenty for his Summer break and could well switch to fences sooner rather than later.
MATTHIAS (GB) 2019b.gMrs J. L. BuckinghamBLACK SAM BELLAMY (IRE)x ROUQUINE SAUVAGE (GB) (LOUP SAUVAGE (USA)) He is out of the 3 time winner Rouquine Sauvage who is herself half-sister to Master Tommytucker who won a grade 2 and was also 2nd in a grade 1 reaching a career high rating of 160. The grand dam was also very useful winning 7 and reaching a career high rating of 140. He’s a strong, solid and athletic youngster who will be aimed at bumpers this season.
MELK ABBEY (IRE) 2016b.m.Noel Fehily Racing Syndicates Melk AbbeySHOLOKHOV (IRE) X CARRIG'N MAY (IRE) (CLASSIC CLICHÉ (IRE))A solid strong mare who has won an Irish point to point, just the one run last season shortly after joining us at which point we decided to give her a good long break due to a few minor issues. That one run was very useful as she was subsequently given a mark of 78 and I’d like to think after a good Summer break she can really make the most of this low starting point. It may be we crack on over fences this term
MIDNIGHT CALLISTO (GB) 2015br.mMs Gill LangfordMIDNIGHT LEGEND (GB) X CARRIGEEN QUEEN (IRE) (DARNAY (GB))She ran eight times last season, placed in four and won two so a very solid season improving 7lb in the ratings ending on 109. Her mark doesn’t really tally with the ability we’ve always felt she possesses but she is gradually picking up the wins and has become very consistent overall. We will at some point this season try her over fences to see if that brings about further improvement and one day she will make a fantastic broodmare as she’s out of a sister to the Gold Cup winner Minella Indo.
MIDNIGHT MALIN (GB) 2016b.mMrs S. J. MaltbyMALINAS (GER) X DANCINGTILMIDNIGHT (GB) (MIDNIGHT LEGEND (GB))New to us from Jack Barber, she's half sister to Jitterbug Geordie (GB). Her Dam won two point to points and had two seconds from 5 starts for Richard Barber before going on to win two hurdle races. She had one run in a bumper two seasons back but got bogged down in the heavy ground, missed last season due to a nasty cut picked up whilst turned out for the Summer. She’s a compact, neat and athletic mare who put her previous experience to good use in a bumper the other day. She'll be running in a mares' maiden hurdle before too long.
MOLLIE BROWN (GB) 2018b.fMr T. C. FrostBLACK SAM BELLAMY (IRE) X MIDNIGHT CRACKLE (GB) (MIDNIGHT LEGEND (GB))She is a well put together solid filly who is out of an unraced mare by Midnight Legend who was a half sister to the Grade 2 winner Sam Brown. A very straightforward filly and I'm looking forward to running her in bumpers this Autumn.
MOONCOIN QUEEN (IRE) 2018b.fWessex Racing ClubDOYEN (IRE) X CARRIGEEN QUEEN(IRE) (DARNAY (GB))Half sister to 3 winning mares trained here at Potwell Fm - Midnight Callisto, Lily The Pink and Precious, and her dam is sister to the Gold Cup winner Minella Indo. She was weak last season and had a slight setback too so we put her away, she’s grown on and strengthened up so we hope to find out what she can do on the track this season. We will start her off in mares bumpers (all 3 sisters won bumpers)
NEVADA SMITH (GB) 2018b.gPotwell Racing Syndicate IV (SHARES AVAILABLE)KAYF TARA (GB) X MIDNIGHT MINX (GB) (MIDNIGHT LEGEND (GB))Full brother to our impressive bumper winner Cape Vidal, his dam Midnight Minx was another smart performer for our yard winning 4 out of her 9 races. He’s similar to his brother, a very strong solid and athletic sort, we will be aiming him at a bumper to begin with. He’s one of the two horses we have in Potwell IV syndicate along with Pure Theatre.
NORTON HILL (IRE) 2016b.gMr and Mrs J. J. Barber, & Mr A. NormanFAME AND GLORY (GB) X CHARMING LEADER (IRE) (SUPREME LEADER (GB))New to us from Jack Barber, he won a bumper at Wincanton on debut. That bumper worked out well - the 2nd now rated 120, the 3rd won a listed bumper next time then 4th in a grade 2, and the 4th won a bumper next time out and also won on hurdles debut. He’s subsequently been placed in both his maiden hurdle starts and those races have also worked out well with the horses around him having progressed since. He was still quite green in his hurdle races and his jumping was a little hit and miss so there’s tons of improvement to come. I would still be thinking he has the talent to make up into a graded novice hurdler but we may initially target handicaps as I think he’s extremely well treated off 111 !
NOTBITTERBUTBETTER (GB) 2017b.mPryde & Van Der HoevenCHAMPS ELYSEES (GB) x PURELY BY CHANCE (GB) (GALILEO (IRE))Half sister to the 3 time winners Ucanaver and Golden Spread. She’s not had a lot of luck in training having picked up an injury and therefore no run in her first season and health issues throughout last season. Her owner has been very patient and as a result we did manage to get her to the track to make her debut in May. She was the only horse in the race that had no previous experience and ran a respectable race back in 5th (only beaten 7 lengths). Hopefully her preparation will go more smoothly this season and we can see what she’s really made of.
ONEUPMANSHIP (IRE) 2015ch.gPhil Fry & Charlie WalkerMAHLER (GB) X LETTHISBETHEONE (IRE) (MOSCOW SOCIETY (USA))New to us this season (formerly with Jack Barber), he has been placed in 8 of his 11 starts as well as winning his maiden hurdle two seasons back. Only the three starts last season, shaping very well on chase debut at Ffos Las before falling two from home. He picked up an injury later in the season which has kept him out of action but all should be well to resume his chasing career this term.
PARIS DIXIE (GB) 2015b.mOwners Group 037 (SHARES AVAILABLE)CHAMPS ELYSEES (GB) X LAST OF THE DIXIES (GB)(HALLING (USA))A bumper winner at Carlisle a few seasons ago, she went on to join Nicky Henderson and made a very encouraging debut over hurdles at Chepstow when 2nd. Unfortunately after that her form took a downward turn. She joined our team over the Summer and has run two very encouraging races finished 2nd & 3rd in two mares maiden hurdles. I’m very hopeful she’ll get off the mark over hurdles soon and the way she jumps I’m expecting her to have a future over fences too.
PURE THEATRE (IRE) 2018b.fPotwell Racing Syndicate IV (SHARES AVAILABLE)COURT CAVE (IRE) X FAUCON (GB) (POLAR FALCON (USA))She’s sister to 6 winners including As I Am who won 8 including two listed hurdles at Newbury and Cheltenham (career high rating of 142), Western Way 7 wins / career high of 130 jumps / 81 flat, and Elegant Touch who won his last two hurdle starts reaching a rating of 133. Pure Theatre was very unlucky not to get off the mark herself when beaten a short head in a bumper at Fakenham last time out and I’d be very hopeful she’ll improve for a Summer break and win a mares bumper this Autumn. If that happens we will then look at a listed mares bumper for her in November / December.
QUEENS FORTUNE (IRE) 2018b.fNoel Fehily Racing Syndicates Queens Fortune (SHARES AVAILABLE)SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (IRE) X DOWN BY THE SEA (IRE) (FOURSTAR ALLSTAR(USA))She made a very encouraging effort on debut when 3rd in an Irish point to point against the geldings. She’s sister to 3 winners and her sire Soldier Of Fortune has been lucky for us - we’ve run 6 horses by him / 5 have won and the other ran with lots of promise when finishing 5th of 16 in a bumper on debut - she’ll kick off in a bumper this Autumn.
REGAL ENCORE (IRE) 2008b.gMr John P. McManusKING'S THEATRE (IRE) X GO ON EILEEN(IRE) (BOB BACK (USA))Two placed efforts in very valuable handicap chases at Ascot again last season, plus his third faultless round of jumping at Aintree over the national fences - this time in The Topham chase (finished 12th of 29 runners). He’s now 14yrs rising 15 so we play it race by race and see what he tells us but it will be fantastic to see him have another go at Ascot and see if he can yet again win a big pot there !! (4 wins and 7 placed efforts at Ascot to date all achieved in £75k,000 - £100,000 chases).
SAILING GRACE (GB) 2019b.fMr A J HoneyballDARTMOUTH (GB) X WAR CREATION (IRE) (SCORPION (IRE)Her dam won a bumper and two hurdle races reaching a career high of 117 from only 8 runs. She’s done quite a lot already having been broken in last December so seems quite forward and we were delighted with her win in one of the new NH juvenile hurdle series. She did plenty wrong there but showed a great attitude, and will remain a novice next season whatever happens the rest of this campaign.
SAM BROWN (GB) 2012b.gMr T. C. FrostBLACK SAM BELLAMY (IRE) X CREAM CRACKER (GB)(SIR HARRY LEWIS (USA))He is lightly raced over the years but now 6 wins from 13 runs, a Grade 2 and a Grade 3 win and £117,000 in prize money. Last season was definitely a much more straightforward campaign for him, with 3 very good runs including a fantastic 2nd in the Grade 2 Peter Marsh chase behind Royale Pagaille who went on to finish 5th in the Gold Cup. His highlight though was winning the £100,000 Betway Handicap Chase at Aintree on Grand National day by 15 lengths ! He’s now up to 157 and we will have a crack at the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby on the 29th October.
SERIOUS CHARGES (IRE) 2017b.gPotwell Racing Syndicate IIISOLDIER OF FORTUNE(IRE) x SOUTH WEST NINE (IRE)(OSCAR(IRE))2nd in a bumper on rules debut before winning his next three races over hurdles in impressive fashion. He then went on to the Aintree Grand National meeting finishing 6th of 21 in a valuable handicap hurdle. He’s still only 5yrs old and looks to have a very exciting novice chase season ahead of him where we hope he can progress and mix it at the highest level.
SMART CASUAL (GB) 2018b.gMr John P. McManusBLACK SAM BELLAMY(IRE) x ROUQUINE SAUVAGE (GB) (LOUP SAUVAGE (USA))His dam won 3 races and is a half sister to Master Tommytucker who is a 6 time winner including a Grade 2, and placed at Grade 1 level (career high rating 160). His grand dam won 7 races reaching a career high of 140. He is a tall horse who is going to take a while to fill his frame but an exciting prospect, we will kick off with him in a bumper this season.
SOMESPRING SPECIAL (IRE) 2018b.f.Yeo Racing PartnershipWESTERNER (GB) x NATURAL SPRING (GB) (GENEROUS (IRE))She was 2nd on her debut in a UK point to point and is by the top class sire Westerner. She’s also half sister to a winner. Her Dam won 3 , reached a peak rating of 128 and is sister to 5 winners including the black type Ted Spread. I would imagine we will kick off in a bumper this Autumn.
STARSHIP MONA (GB) 2018b.fThe Lifeboat CrewTELESCOPE (IRE) x LIFEBOAT MONA (GB) (KAYF TARA (GB)Her dam won 6 of her 10 races including two at Listed level, and reached a career high rating of 144. She was a little weak and backward last season but has been given time and developed in to a strong athletic type. We will aim her at mares only bumpers initially and potentially hurdling later depending on what level she reaches in her bumpers.
SULLY D'OC AA (FR) 2014b.gMr John P. McManusKONIG TURF(GER)X SAMARRA D'OC (FR) (MOON MADNESS (GB))He has been a very good chaser for us over the last few seasons reaching a career high rating of 147. Two seasons back he won at Ascot first time out, was 3rd in a valuable chase at Newbury, then ran in all three Spring festivals finishing a solid 8th of 21 at Cheltenham followed by a 2nd of 18 at Aintree and rounded off by giving us our first winner in Ireland, winning a 19 runner 2m handicap chase at the Punchestown festival ! Last season was always going to be tricky having gone up in the weights but he still managed some solid efforts the highlight being when finishing 3rd beaten 2 lengths in an £85,000 handicap chase at Ascot. Unfortunately in his last run, again at Ascot, he broke a bone in his foot and has been sidelined since so missing all the Spring festivals. It’s hoped he’ll be back fit and firing again at some point this Winter targeting the Spring festivals once again.
SWINCOMBE FLEAT (GB) 2016b.mYeo Racing PartnershipYEATS (IRE)X SWINCOMBE FLAME (GB) (EXIT TO NOWHERE (USA))Her dam Swincombe Flame was a top notch race mare and she’s sister to a grade 2 winner and to our own smart bumper winner Firestream. She’s been more than respectable on the track herself having won a bumper and finishing 4th in a 16 runner listed bumper. Last season she won her novice hurdle and was placed twice before her form tailed off a bit in her last two runs of the season. She still looks on a very workable handicap mark and will more than likely kick on straight over fences.
TALKINGTOTHEMOON (GB) 2018b.gThe Lunatic PartnershipPETHER'S MOON (IRE) x BLUE BUTTONS (IRE) (KING'S THEATRE(IRE))Only two career starts so far - 2nd on his UK point to point debut before going on to win easily next time out. His
dam Blue Buttons won 4 races and reached a career high rating of 137. One of her wins came at listed level and
she was also 2nd in that grade. This lad will start off in a bumper this Autumn.
TROJAN HORSE (IRE) 2019ch.cMr R Huggins and Mr Peter JonesULYSSES (IRE) X GUARDIA (IRE) (MONSUN (IRE))He was twice a winner on the flat reaching a career high rating of 84. He’s got several winning siblings including Group 3 placed, Punchestown festival winning hurdler Guiri. His dam is full sister to the group 1 winning sire GETAWAY. Slightly disappointed us on his first hurdle start but it was a terribly muddling affair.
UCANAVER (GB) 2016bl.mIfuwonner PartnershipMAXIOS (GB) X PURELY BY CHANCE (GB) (GALILEO (IRE))Won 2 novice hurdles and placed once from 4 starts last season, a high quality mare who can hopefully take another step forward this year. Plan A is to have a tilt at a valuable mares handicap hurdle at Wincanton in early November and then we may well send her mares chasing as she seems to enjoy her jumping, she may well excel in that sphere.
UNNAMED (GB) 2019b.ggeegeez.co.uk XXIIBLACK SAM BELLAMY (IRE) X BEHRA (IRE) (GRAND LODGE (USA))His dam was 3rd in a listed race on the flat, and won a 17 runner maiden at Newbury (flat rating 92 with Sir Michael Stout). She is now the dam of 6 winners to date including two black type horses - Barizan who won 10 and reached a peak rating of 146 and Baradari who won 3 and a career high of 140. This lad is a lovely athletic type who has been cantered away and schooled. We will aim him at bumpers from January onwards (is qualified for a £100,000 sales bumper at Newbury in March).
UNNAMED (GB) 2019b.gFOR SALEBLACK SAM BELLAMY (IRE) X DOLLY PENROSE (GB) (HERNANDO (FR))His dam made £120,000 as a yearling and went on to win twice and reach a flat rating of 84. She was also a winner over hurdles reaching a rating of 117. She is sister to 6 winners, three of which were black type performers and her dam won the Grade 1 Cleeve hurdle at Cheltenham. This lad has been broken in, cantered and jumped. We like him a lot and will hope to run him in a bumper January onwards (he is also qualified for a £100,000 sales bumper at Newbury in March).
UNNAMED (IRE) 2019b.gMr Gavin PikeCOURT CAVE (IRE) X SOUTH WEST NINE (IRE) (OSCAR (IRE))A straightforward, athletic individual who is half brother to 4 winners including the smart horse trained here at Potwell “Serious Charges” (3 wins to date / rating 133). He was broken in, cantered and schooled in the Spring then out for a Summer break, the plan will be to prep him for bumpers this season.
WHYNOTNOWROY (IRE) 2018ch.gMr Brian DerrickNOTNOWCATO (GB) X MIDNIGHT LIRA (GB) (MIDNIGHT LEGEND (GB))He’s had two educational stints with us, so after his latest Summer break he’s very much ready to crack on with this season. His dam Midnight Lira won 6 races reaching a career high rating of 125 so plenty of positives on pedigree. He’ll kick off in a bumper in the Autumn.
WINDANCE (IRE) 2015b.gDecimus Racing IIISHIROCCO (GER) X MACA RINCE(IRE) (RAINWATCH (GB))He really got the hang of hurdling in his final three starts in the 2020 / 21 season winning two of them and third on his final start. Unfortunately he missed last season due to a tendon strain, and he’ll resume this term over hurdles before heading over fences as he’s a really good jumper and should thrive over the larger obstacles
WORLD OF DREAMS (IRE) 2016b.gMr R. W. Huggins, M Bisogno & P WilliamsKAYF TARA (GB) X ROSE OF THE WORLD (IRE) (VINNIE ROE(IRE))He is a high quality performer, winning 4 of his 6 starts to date including two over hurdles last season. His 2nd in a novice hurdle at Hereford reads particularly well as the winner (which he gave 7lb) subsequently went on to win a Grade 2 novice hurdle next time out. We had him lined up for a very valuable hurdle in March but an injury forced us to shelve that plan and put him away. Hopefully we will be back on the front foot this season and he could be very interesting off a mark of 120 in some valuable handicap hurdles this term.

All-Weather Analysis: Lingfield Racecourse

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It’s time for the fourth course in this all-weather series, this time focusing on Lingfield Park. I have used data from 1st January 2017 to 31st August 2022 which gives us a decent chunk of races to get stuck into. As with the previous pieces my data collection has been solely from the Geegeez Query Tool and therefore all profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price. We know that we can improve upon those baseline figures with exchange prices or Best Odds Guaranteed and, where appropriate, I will share any useful Betfair SP data.

Running Style at Lingfield

I have written before about Lingfield in regards to running style, so I will be sharing the new data from the past 11 months as well as looking at the long term figures. I have also touched upon the draw at Lingfield in two general AW articles around 2½ years ago, but this article will give a more detailed analysis. For both sections on running style and the draw my focus will be handicaps of eight or more runners only. This is in line with previous research in those areas.

Lingfield 5f Run Style Bias

Let’s start with the minimum trip of 5f. Here are the run style splits in 8+ runner handicaps covering the time since my last article (that is, from 1st Oct ’21 to 31st Aug ’22):

 

 

In this recent time frame there have been only 22 qualifying races so this is a limited sample. The front running stats (L) are not as strong as were the long term figures: from 1st Jan 2017 to 30th Sept 2021 front runners were successful around 24% of the time. However, with a small sample size it is easy to see this type of variance. If we compare the each way stats for front runners over the two time frames we see near identical percentages:

 

 

I am confident the run style picture in 5f handicaps at Lingfield is the same as ever in that the data points to the 5f trip at Lingfield giving front runners the edge; prominent racers are next best, while horses that take a mid pack or further back position early, are at a disadvantage. If you had your crystal ball working in tip top order and had predicted all the front runners going back to 2017, you would have made a profit of £121.88 to £1 level stakes. This equates to a remarkable return of 77p in the £. If on the other hand you had backed all mid div and hold up horses you would have lost £285.42. For every £1 bet on these runners you would have lost 48p. Ouch.

 

Lingfield 6f Run Style Bias

When writing about this course and distance previously, I noted the following ’dip’ in front running performance in 8+ runner handicaps:

 

*up to 30th Sept 2021 only

 

Prior to 2017, the front runners' win percentage had been consistently over 20% (2014 – 28%; 2015 – 22%; 2016 – 23%). That seems to be quite a staggering change from the start of 2018. So how do the last 11 months stack up for front runners in 6f handicaps (8+ runners)?

 

 

These data are much more in tune with the pre-2018 findings, certainly in terms of win percentage. But where does that leave us? To be honest, I’m not sure. Essentially we need to take a longer term view so let me share all run style data stretching from 1/1/17 to 31/8/22:

 

 

Looking over this longer time frame, there does seem to be a run style bias in play here, specifically that front runners and prominent racers have a combined edge over horses that race mid pack, who in turn have the advantage over held up horses. However, the old front running bias that was potent a few years back seems to have dissipated.

 

Lingfield 7f Run Style Bias

Looking firstly at 7f handicap run style data going back to 2017 (8+ runners), the graph below shows win and win & placed (each way) strike rate:

 

 

The win and each way lines correlate neatly adding confidence to a perception of bias towards the front rank of runners early. Front runners edge it over prominent runners in a pattern we are generally used to seeing at shortish trips. If we look at the more recent data from only the past 11 months we get this:

 

 

The sample size is 42 races and, although the front running win stats are below the long-term norm, the each way figures suggest that nothing has really changed.

In essence, this is a track and trip where the closer to the pace a runner is, the better. Hold up horses really do struggle, and in bigger fields they struggle even more so. In 7f handicaps with 12 or more runners (going back to 2017), hold up horses have a win rate of under 3% and and a win & placed (EW) rate of under 15%.

Once we hit races of 1 mile the bias levels out and, from 1m2f upwards, front runners as well as hold up horses are at a disadvantage compared with prominent and midfield racers.

 

Draw at Lingfield

If we look at the racecourse map for Lingfield, with its sweeping downhill home bend and relatively short straight, one may expect lower draws (those drawn on the inside) to hold an edge over the shorter distances:

 

 

Let's see if that is the case.

 

Lingfield 5f Draw Bias

A look at the minimum trip first. It should be noted that field sizes for this distance have a maximum of just 10 runners. Here are the draw splits going back to 2017 for 8+ runner handicaps (124 races):

 

 

Essentially, this is very even and, clearly, lower draws have not had more success from a winning perspective. Bizarrely horses from the highest third of the draw have come out on top here. Looking again at the course map, perhaps those drawn highest are able to run at a tangent to the crown of the bend. If we look at the win and placed stats (EW) we do get a slightly different picture:

 

 

This maybe is a better indicator that in fact a lower draw is preferable, and these stats also correlate with the percentage of rivals beaten (PRB) data. These figures are as follows:

 

 

Taking these three ‘measures’ into account I would say that the draw here is not crucial to the outcome of the race. However, if pushed I would prefer a lower draw given the option.

 

Lingfield 6f Draw Bias

Over this extra furlong the maximum field size increases to 12 and this trip sees horses encounter two left turns. There have been 180 races since 2017 so a strong sample size, relatively at least. Here are the draw splits in terms of win percentage:

 

 

Very level figures once again. So let’s examine the win and placed (EW) data to see if that sheds any more light on proceedings:

 

 

Lower draws are now edging ahead as we saw with the 5f stats. How about the PRB figures?

 

 

A similar pattern to 5f it seems. Nothing mind blowing, but essentially a lower draw is almost certainly a small advantage.

If we combine draw and run style we get the following 6f handicap heat map when looking at PRB figures:

 

 

This shows the difficulty hold up horses have from any draw and also, for horses that race mid-division, a wide draw is a definite negative. This is a key take away in terms of both run style and draw over this trip.

 

Lingfield 7f+ Draw Bias

As we have seen at the shorter distances, draw bias is not going to be a defining feature like it can be at somewhere like Chester, or even some of the other all-weather course/distance combinations. Once we get to 7f and beyond the draw becomes even less of a factor. Hence it’s time to move on and check out some other areas.

For the remainder of this article I will be looking at data for all races (from 1st Jan 2017), not just 8+ runner handicaps.

 

Trainers at Lingfield

Top Lingfield Trainers

With data going back nearly six seasons we have a good amount of info into which to drill down on the performance of trainers at Lingfield. Below are those handlers who secured a win strike rate of 15% or more from a minimum of 100 runs (all race types included):

 

 

Just one trainer has recorded an SP profit: step forward, Roger Varian. Varian has had one winner at 33/1, however, so taking that away he has essentially broken even to SP. To BSP his overall record is +£65.31, while even without the outsider winner this drops to +£15.26. All in all, his record is very solid. Let’s look at some positive angles (none of which include this 33/1 winner which would skew the stats somewhat):

  1. Results when Andrea Atzeni has been Varian’s jockey have been excellent. 12 wins and 5 placed from just 26 runners in total for a profit of £27.70 (ROI +106.5%)
  2. With very short priced runners (evens or less), Varian is 14 wins from 16 (SR 87.5%) for a profit of £6.46 (ROI +40.4%)
  3. His 3yo fillies have secured 11 wins from 39 (SR 28.2%) for a profit of £21.73 (ROI +55.7%)
  4. His 2yo runners have won around 27% of the time returning 15p in the £
  5. He has 9 wins from 16 runners (SR 56.3%) when his runners are top rated by Peter May’s Speed Ratings. These runners have returned just over 38p in the £

Onto A/E indices now – looking for trainers who have exceeded the magic figure of 1.00 which suggests their horses as a whole have been value to follow:

 

 

Four of these trainers appeared in the original table, nine others have joined them. As a general rule, I would suggest these 13 trainers are worth close scrutiny when they send runners to the track.

 

Caution Advised Lingfield Trainers

A look now at the trainers who have struggled at Lingfield in terms of win percentage:

 

 

These trainers are probably worth swerving at Lingfield unless you have a compelling reason to think otherwise. Indeed, looking at all 14 together, their combined record with favourites at Lingfield is a middling 20 wins from 104 (SR 19.23%) for a hefty loss of £41.17 (ROI +39.6%).

 

Lingfield Gender Bias

I have noted a gender bias at each of the all-weather courses I have studied to date. Here are Lingfield’s figures:

 

 

These figures are very similar to those we have seen before. However, a pattern we saw at Chelmsford and Kempton where the gender bias levelled out as horses reached the age of five is not repeated here. What I did notice, however, was that there seems to be a market bias in play at Lingfield. The graph below uses A/E indices to help show this.

 

 

As you can see, female runners from the top three in the betting are very competitive with their male counterparts (F 0.91; M 0.89). However, males start to outperform their female counterparts when we get to 4th to 6th in the betting market (F 0.74; M 0.86), and this continues to 7th or bigger in the market (F 0.61; M 0.71).

It made sense for me to back check Chelmsford and Kempton to see if there were similar findings for this angle, and this is what I discovered.

Kempton’s were:

 

 

And Chelmsford’s stats were:

 

 

Essentially both courses followed a similar pattern to Lingfield. Looking at all three in a chart may make the pattern easier to view so below I've created an A/E ratio of female performance against male performance (dividing the female A/E figure by the male A/E figure in each segment).

 

 

There is roughly parity when looking at the top 3 in the market; then a strong edge for males as we move away from the sharp end of the betting lists. This is something to check out with other courses in future articles.

 

Lingfield Market Factors

Keeping with the market it is time for a look at the win strike rates for different market ranks, starting with favourites and moving down to position 7th or more:

 

 

This pattern is what we would expect. Favourites have lost around 8p in the £ to SP (a 4p loss to BSP), second favourites have lost 10p in the £ (just 1.3p loss to BSP). As a side note, favourites have actually broken even in non-handicap races which is interesting (+4.6% if using BSP).

A look at market rank A/E indices next:

 

 

Lingfield is not a course for outsiders it seems. Horses 7th or bigger in the betting would have lost you 45p for every £ bet to SP; and around 21p at BSP.

Therefore I would personally focus on the front end of the market, more especially the top four in the betting.

Before moving away from the market I thought it would be interesting to see which jockeys have ridden the course well when riding a horse near the top end of the betting. Hence if focusing solely on the top four in the betting, here are the jockeys with an A/E index of 0.95 or more (100 runs minimum to qualify):

 

 

Five jockeys were in profit to SP - Messrs. Keenan, Fanning, Levey, Probert and Marquand -  which is impressive considering only three of the winners from all jockeys combined were a bigger price than 10/1. All five are jockeys I would be happy to see on board one of my horses at the track.

Darragh Keenan’s figures are particularly impressive and, of the 29 trainers he has ridden for under these circumstances, he has won for 16 different ones. Of the 13 trainers he has yet to win for, he has ridden just once for eight of them and no more than three times for any of them. Of all the other jockeys in the table, only Ryan Moore has managed to win for more than half the trainers he has ridden for (24 from 44).

Keenan had just one qualifying ride at the track in 2017 and only four in 2018 (2 wins); since then here are his win / win & placed (EW) percentages:

 

 

These are very decent looking figures and his A/E indices for each year are equally impressive:

 

 

To have achieved an Actual vs Expected figure in excess of 1.20 for each of the past four years is a record not to be sniffed at. I feel Keenan is definitely a jockey to keep on the right side of at Lingfield, especially when riding a horse near the head of the market.

 

Sire Performance at Lingfield

In this section we'll examine some sire data. Here are the top 15 sires in terms of strike rate since 2017. (To qualify - 150 runs or more or more; and must have had runners somewhere in the UK during 2022):

 

 

Some of the usual suspects as one would expect. Dansili, Sharmardal and Dubawi all appeared near the top of the Kempton strike rates as well. Frankel did not make the cut due to having only 108 runners in total but with a strike rate of over 19% he, too, should be mentioned.

In terms of damsires I am going to share just the top four performers in terms of strike rate (you’ll see why):

 

 

Dansili, Sharmardal and Dubawi are right to the fore once again – as punters, we should keep an eye out at Lingfield when a horse or its dam is sired by one of that top trio.

 

Lingfield Horses for Courses

My final port of call is, as always in this series, to look at some horses that have excelled at the course since 2017. To qualify for the list a horse must have won at least four races at the track with a strike rate of 25% or more. Also, each must have raced somewhere in the UK in 2022. Here are the horses that qualify, listed alphabetically. I have included a PRB column too (Percentage of rivals beaten):

 

 

18 horses make the list so keep an eye out for any of these horses over the coming months - perhaps add them to your Query Tool Angles (Horse Name = [these 18], Course = Lingfield, Race Code = Flat AW). They clearly like the track and if some other factors are in their favour they should be regarded as potentially good betting propositions.

 

Lingfield All-Weather Conclusions

There is plenty to take from this article as we have covered several different areas. The main takeaways for me are:

  1. There is a run style bias at distances ranging from 5f to 7f. Over 5f, front runners have a fair edge; at 6f and 7f, front runners and prominent racers combined have a decent advantage
  2. There is little in the draw at any distance. Low may have a tiny edge at 5f and 6f
  3. Roger Varian is a trainer to keep an eye on
  4. Jockey Darragh Keenan has an excellent record when riding a horse from the top four in the betting; also look out for Fanning, Levey, Probert and Marquand under these conditions
  5. Male horses have the edge over female ones; it seems this is much stronger as we get beyond the first three in the market
  6. Market wise, favourites and second favourites are worth a second look; generally speaking, this is a course to stick to the front end of the betting lists
  7. Look out for Dansili, Sharmardal and Dubawi both in terms of being a sire or a damsire

So there we are. There will be plenty of meetings at Lingfield over the coming months and I hope this piece has given you some useful pointers.

- DR

Monday Musings: Charlie the Champ

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After the past two weeks of sales and racing at Newmarket, no wonder Charlie Appleby looked frazzled just after 4.15 p.m. on Saturday as he sat down for a welcome cup of tea, directly opposite my vantage point in a box in the grandstand at Ascot, writes Charlie Appleby.

I said, “You are champion trainer again!”, and the look of brief bewilderment on his face showed that until that point the significance of the outcome of the Qipco Champion Stakes clearly hadn’t properly sunk in.

“Really?”, he asked. I outlined how the £248,000 his Modern Games had earned for second in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes had significantly stretched his lead over close second but overwhelming title favourite, William Haggas. Bayside Boy, a 33-1 shot trained by Roger Varian had got the better of the Godolphin horse while Haggas watched on helpless as he did not have a representative in Europe’s mile championship.

That meant it was all down to the horse of a generation – or so we thought he was.

We had all dutifully turned up at Ascot expecting a coronation. The Queen Consort was there, but it was Baaeed who was supposed to be crowned King of the Turf after what was to be his 11th win from 11 career starts.

So little were his eight rivals considered as serious opposition that he was sent off the 4-1 on favourite. To appreciate the depth of that market confidence, he was entering Frankel territory. His admirers had already attached to him near-Frankel mystique, or even hysteria.

Frankel had been only a marginally shorter price when completing the last of his 14 unbeaten career wins in the same race ten years earlier. He was 11-2 on against five rivals, best of whom were the veteran French gelding Cirrus Des Aigles and his contemporary and old rival, Nathaniel. He beat them readily enough, but it was a performance far less in keeping with his nine prior, mostly spectacular, Group 1 victories.

The question had to be would Baaeed stroll through this final task before following his predecessor to stud? The previous weeks had shown Frankel as the most potent living stallion, comfortably heading for a sire championship with the victory of his daughter Alpinista in the Arc a performance fresh in the memory.

He had also completely dominated the recent Tattersall’s October Yearling Book 1 auction with a string of big-money sales up to the top price of 2.8 million guineas. Nobody in their right mind would believe they could send a mare to him next breeding season for the 2022 fee of £200,000. He’ll be in the Galileo league, probably at least double that figure, neatly spanning the generations from his recently deceased sire and having grown to full maturity and power in the breeding shed.

Her Majesty did the honours in the QE II, presenting Richard Ryan, racing manager of Teme Valley Racing, the prize for Bayside Boy’s unexpected win. Teme Valley were also in action in the Caulfield Cup in Sydney earlier in the day where their Numerian was a close fifth beaten barely a length.

A one-time Joseph O’Brien-trained gelding, Numerian was bred by Joseph’s mother, Anne-Marie O’Brien, and he will no doubt have more paydays in Australia. Last October, State Of Play, trained by Joseph, won the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley in the Teme Valley silks.

Ian Williams, who has had a fruitful connection with Richard Ryan, expressed surprise that his friend had not been able to be in both places at once. “He’ll work it out for next year, no doubt”, said Williams.

The QE II was a tasty if unpredictable aperitif to the main course. Ranged against the Haggas star was the 2021 Derby winner, Adayar, at 6-1, who was fifth in last year’s Champion after a fourth in the Arc, and now back with a bang fresh after that long absence with a smooth win in conditions class at Doncaster. Appleby vowed after that he wanted to take on Baaeed at Ascot. Then there was Sir Michael Stoute’s Bay Bridge, a 10-1 shot and Group-race winner earlier in the year at Sandown but held in his forays into top class since.

Add the Irish pair, Stone Age from Aidan O’Brien and 2021 Classic winner Mac Swiney from the Jim Bolger yard and you have a far from negligible task for the favourite. Baaeed’s form leading up to Ascot had been blemish-free, but whereas Frankel had spaced his 14 races over three racing seasons, the later-developing Baaeed raced only from May last year.

Haggas himself had two back-ups, My Prospero, who despite three wins in four this year and a close third, a neck behind Appleby’s ill-fated Coroebus in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Ascot, was a 22/1 shot. His third runner, Dubai Honour, had less obvious claims, starting 33-1.

If before racing the fear was that the ground would be a potential worry for many horses on the day, the times were very much in line with Chris Stickels’ good to soft, soft in places, assessment. Any attempt to assign Baaeed’s rather stale fourth place behind Bay Bridge, Adayar and stablemate My Prospero to the going therefore makes less sense than simply the cumulative effects of a long, tough season racing at the top level.

The money, expected to be sufficiently in Haggas’ favour via his three contenders, panned out thus. Bay Bridge got £737k for winning, Adayar £279k for second. All three Haggas runners picked up a cheque, but My Prospero’s £139k, Baaeed’s £69k and Dubai Honour’s £17,000 for sixth left them 53 grand short in that single race alone.

Baaed will now retire to stud at a time when Shadwell Farm is starting to resume activity in a buying mode at the sales after the initial selling-off of many hundreds of racing and breeding stock following Hamdan Al-Maktoum’s death. His daughter, Sheikha Hissa, has been a noted presence over here recently and it would have been a fitting send-off for her much-admired father if Baaeed had emulated the feat of Frankel and remained unbeaten.

Racing at the top level is very attritional. The old champ Stradivarius has gone off to stud and his Goodwood Cup conqueror Kyprios bypassed the Champion Long Distance Cup but Trueshan duly turned up and completed a unique hat-trick in the race for Alan King, the Trueshan Owners Group and Hollie Doyle.

The team had been almost inconsolable after the star gelding, in Alan King’s opinion still remembering his ordeal by fast ground and Kyprios at Goodwood, swerved away his chance late on in the Doncaster Cup, going under by a neck to Coltrane. That day, with the trains back to London all screwed by first world problems, I gave a lift to their best-known member, Andrew Gemmell, and his mate Tony Hunt, and all the way back to town Andrew was as despondent as I’ve known him.

The mood was rather different in the winner’s enclosure after Hollie conjured a thrilling rally from her tough, determined ally to avenge that defeat after Coltrane had looked likely to maintain the edge. This time the verdict was a head in the other direction. Two very brave stayers, but Alan King has done wonders to bring his horse back after that chastening experience on the Sussex Downs.

Anyway, to return to the point of the matter. At close of play on Saturday, Appleby had earnings of £5,959,450, a lead of £364,000 give or take a few quid, over Haggas’ £5,595,524. While the title runs to December 31, incongruously with the Jockeys’ title race already done on Saturday, nothing can change its destination.

One major UK flat race remains, next weekend’s Vertem Futurity at Doncaster. Charlie doesn’t think he’ll run anything there, while William doesn’t have an entry, so the £118k will likely go to Coolmore and Ballydoyle who always target the race with a 2,000 Guineas contender. They have plenty of possibles, but their stranglehold could change if Chaldean takes them on. The Dewhurst hero would be the one to beat if Andrew Balding goes for a race in which he has done very well.

In 2021 William Buick battled to the last day of the season before finding Oisin Murphy holding too many aces. This year, with his rival out of the way, it was a cakewalk. Oisin’s return in 2023 will be eagerly awaited. A revived Murphy, three times champion already, would make it a thrilling competition, but if that does not materialise, the prospect is that ever-improving Buick could be in for a long period of supremacy given the power of the Appleby team.

The quality of the trainers at the top of the racing industry in the UK is outstanding. Add Roger Varian to the first two this year and you have three upwardly-mobile Newmarket-based handlers who I’m sure could have succeeded in any other field, as of course could their Berkshire counterpart, Balding. The fact that they have such powerful teams suggests the quartet will be at the forefront of their profession for years to come.

- TS

All-Weather Analysis: Kempton Racecourse

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After looking at Chelmsford and Dundalk, it’s time to go to Kempton Park, to the west of London. I will be using all-weather data from 1st January 2017 to 31st August 2022 when analysing the Surrey track, giving us the opportunity to examine over 2500 races. I have used the Geegeez Query Tool for all the data collection, and hence all profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price. However, as I have mentioned numerous times before we will be able to improve upon these figures by using either BOG, early prices or the exchanges.

I have written about Kempton before in regards to running style and also I have shared draw data too. I will look again at both of these here, but there are plenty of other areas that I will be covering in this piece as well. However, let's start with running style.

Running Style at Kempton

When looking at run style, my focus is handicaps, and specifically handicaps with fields of eight or more runners. In an article published on Kempton early this year I looked at run style data up to 30th September 2021. Hence I will be sharing the latest data from the intervening eleven months.

There has only been one qualifying race over 5f so nothing new to share there. Front runners traditionally have a big edge over this minimum distance and, on the rare occasions 5f handicaps are run, this is worth knowing. Time therefore to move to 6f handicaps.

Kempton 6f Run Style Bias

Here are the run style splits in 8+ runner handicaps (1st Oct ’21 to 31st Aug ’22):

 

The sample size of 41 races is reasonable and these recent figures correlate well with the long term data, as this graphical comparison below confirms:

 

This gives us confidence that in 6f handicaps at Kempton front runners do have a good edge; prominent racers in turn have a small edge over horses that race further back early. For any remaining sceptics, let us look at the win and placed percentages across both time frames:

 

The front running stats for both time frames have virtually identical win & placed percentages standing at 47.83% and 47.9% respectively. Likewise, the other three groups have virtually identical percentage figures. This data implies therefore that we can expect roughly half of all front runners over six furlongs will hit the frame.

 

Kempton 7f Run Style Bias

Long-term past results had seen front runners enjoying an edge at this trip also, with a win strike rate of 16.8% from 1/1/17 to 30/9/21. The more recent data (47 races since then) has actually seen this figure drop markedly to 12.1%. Is this is a shift in bias to a more even playing field in terms of run style over 7f at Kempton? I personally don’t think so. A couple of near misses in modest samples can easily see this type of percentage drop.

Also, there are two more numbers to share that suggest the front running bias is essentially the same as it has always been. Firstly, the win & placed percentages for both time frames are very similar at 38.8% and 37.9%. And secondly, I looked at the PRB figures (Percentage of Rivals beaten) – these again were virtually the same over the two time frames:

 

PRB figures are generally a good indicator to see if certain biases exist. Figures on or above 0.55 tend to suggest there is a bias in play.

Traditionally, once we get past 7f, the run style bias at Kempton starts to even out, although even at a mile a front runner is a better betting proposition than a hold up horse.

 

The Draw at Kempton

Onto to draw now. For this area, I will again be sticking to 8+ runner handicaps, I have split all initial data into three equal thirds in order to compare the win percentages within each group. I will dig deeper from there where appropriate. The racecourse map below shows the course is right-handed and that there is an inner and an outer course. Only 5f and 1m2f races are raced on the inner course; all other distances are raced on the outer one.

 

 

Kempton 5f Draw Bias

It was noted earlier in the article that there has been just one 5f handicap with 8+ runners in the past year. There seems to be a general policy at the track to move away from 5f races with the tight inner loop making it very difficult for later running types. I will share the third of the draw splits going back to 1/1/17:

 

 

There is a small edge to lower drawn horses according to these figures. Another measure of draw bias is to look at the percentage of rivals beaten (PRB). These figures are as follows:

 

 

These figures suggest the bias may be stronger than first thought. However, with so few races these days we will need to be patient to try and utilise any bias, if indeed we can at all. [Editor's note: this is a 5f handicap carded next Tuesday, 18th October]

 

Kempton 6f Draw Bias

Six furlong handicaps are abundant at Kempton. We can expect around fifty 8+ runner handicaps a year so we have plenty of data to play with. Detailed draw bias stats at this course and distance appeared in an article I wrote earlier this year, where in it I placed Kempton over 6f as being the 6th strongest draw bias in the UK/Ireland. What I did not do in that piece though was look at the actual draw splits by thirds so here they are now:

 

 

Low draws are definitely best here and higher drawn runners struggle. The PRB figures correlate strongly as we can see:

 

 

These 6f races are ones I often get involved in as we have potential draw and a run style biases to utilise.

Before moving on I thought it prudent to look at the 2022 data to check the low draw bias is still in play. It certainly seems that way with the PRB figure for the bottom 'third' at 0.58 with 12 of the 22 races (54.5%) going to that section. A final stat to share is that, in 2022, horses drawn 9 or higher are 0 from 44 with just 5 placed runs.

 

Kempton 7f Draw Bias

The 7f distance also appeared in the same top 10 biases article, in 8th place. However, in 2022 the bias has appeared less potent for whatever reason. In the 33 qualifying races so far in 2022, only ten have been won by the bottom third of the draw, with 12 wins for middle and 11 for high, en extremely even split. The PRB figures are also more even at 0.51 (low), 0.52 (middle) and 0.47 (high). The long term PRB figure for lowest drawn horses is 0.55 so the question is, has there been a slight change going on? I am guessing probably not: race samples of 33 are relatively modest when digging into the draw. It will be interesting to see how things pan out over 7f in the run up to Christmas, but I would suggest a little caution for the time being, just in case a change is afoot.

 

Kempton 1 Mile Draw Bias

Here are the draw splits for mile trip (2017-2022):

 

 

Higher drawn horses look to be at a very slight disadvantage. The PRB figures suggest this disadvantage is definitely there, and maybe stronger than the win% draw splits imply:

 

 

All in all, this is not a Kempton distance where the draw plays a big part for me personally when analysing a race. However, there is a red flag over any horse I’m keen on when it is drawn in double figures.

Kempton Draw Conclusions

As far as draw conclusions go, the 6f trip is one to get stuck into draw-wise with low draws best; hopefully the 7f one will revert to ‘type’ also this winter. Keep an eye out for any of those rare 5f handicaps where low draws should be advantageous, and over a mile be a little wary of very high drawn horses.

For the remainder of the article I will be using ALL race data, not just 8+ runner handicaps. Time now to look at trainers.

 

Trainers at Kempton

With data going back to 2017 we have an excellent bucket into which to drill down on the performance of trainers at Kempton. This first table shows the trainers who have secured a win strike rate of 15% or more from a minimum of 100 runs (ALL race types included):

 

 

Charlie Appleby tops the list but, despite his outstanding win rate - better than one in three - he has still made a loss to SP of over 18 pence in the £. Ouch.

Three yards are in profit and I want to look at the record of one of those, namely that of the Charltons'. Their record at Kempton is excellent; only one big priced winner (33/1) and looking at their bigger priced runners as a whole, those priced 16/1 or bigger have secured that solitary win from 92 attempts. This equates to a loss of £58.00 (ROI -63%). At the pointy end, Charlton runners priced 14/1 or shorter have provided 57 winners from 212 bets (SR 26.9%) for a healthy profit of £90.19 (ROI +42.5%).

The stable has been relatively consistent over the years, too, as these next two graphs show. Firstly a look at winning data:

 

 

Other than the blip in 2018, the remaining years have been very solid in terms of win strike rate. The A/E indices for each year correlate well too:

 

 

Five of the six years are above the magic 1.00 Actual vs Expected (A/E), suggesting Charlton runners have been good value in every year bar 2018.

Here are some additional Kempton facts for Harry and Roger Charlton:

  1. The handicap win strike rate is over 24%; their non handicap figure stands at just under 15%.
  2. His male runners have comfortably outperformed females with a win rate of 22.2% compared with 14.3%. Males have secured returns of 21p in the £, while fillies/mares have lost just under 6p in the £.
  3. Charlton favourites have won 51% of races (25 wins from 49) for a profit of £14.06 (ROI +28.7%). Second favourites have also been profitable to the tune of 14p in the £.
  4. From a run style perspective 31% of front runners have won, 29% of prominent runners have won, but there has been just 7.6% success for hold up horses. (Mid div horses won 15.6%).

 

All Charlton stable runners deserve close attention, especially those who race in handicaps. Look out for male runners, too, and steer clear of any big prices: they do occasionally win but have been expensive to follow overall. One final Charlton fact to share is that 24 different jockeys have had at least two rides for the stable at Kempton and 19 of them have registered at least one win.

Before moving on let us focus on horses from the top three in the betting and the trainers who have had the best A/E indices with those fancied runners (50 runs or more to qualify):

 

 

It's good to see Mick Appleby, John Butler, Simon Dow and William Knight in there amongst some bigger names; and it is worth noting that eight of the ten trainers from the group above made a profit to SP.

This type of article can only scratch the surface when it comes to trainer angles so for readers interested in digging further into Kempton trainer performance, the Geegeez Query Tool that I have used here is simple to use and very powerful. Not only that, you can test numerous angles very quickly. It is accessible from the menu link under the 'tools' menu item at the top of this - and almost every - page.

 

Kempton Gender bias

Research I undertook for the Chelmsford and Dundalk articles pointed towards a slight bias toward male runners over females. We know this bias tends to be slightly stronger on the all-weather, but it does exist on the turf, too. Here are the splits for Kempton:

 

 

Again, there is a definite edge here to male horses, similar to what we have seen at previous all-weather tracks.

Let's look at whether the age of horse has any relevance when it comes to the gender of the horse:

 

 

What is interesting is that we have a virtually identical age bias pattern to the one we saw at Chelmsford. There, males outperformed females at 2, 3 and 4 years old, but as the horses got older it seemed to level out. It happens, or at least has happened, at Kempton too.

The A/E indices react in the same way as the graph below shows:

 

 

Just because two courses portray a similar looking age/gender bias we cannot be sure this is a pattern that will repeated at other all weather courses. Indeed Dundalk’s stats did not really correlate with these two UK tracks. However, maybe the exact nature of the individual surface is the important factor here. Unfortunately, as with some research findings, I currently cannot give you an answer that I’m fully satisfied with. I will be keeping an eye on the results over the next few months to see whether same pattern continues or dissipates.

 

Market factors at Kempton

It's time for a look at the win strike rates for different positions in the betting, starting with favourites and moving down to position 8th or lower in the market:

 

 

The chart shows the kind of sliding scale we'd expect to see, and the win percentage for favourites is around the average for all UK courses. Favourites have lost roughly 8p in the £ to SP which equates to a loss of 3p in the £ to BSP; second favourites have lost around 10p in the £ to SP which reduces to a 2p in the £ loss to BSP. The top two in the betting therefore have a pretty decent record at Kempton and this is reflected in the A/E indices:

 

 

Favourites have the highest A/E index at 0.94; second favourites the joint second best at 0.90.

All favourites that were also top rated on the Peter May speed ratings (published in the 'SR' column on geegeez racecards) actually made a profit to SP, recording 256 wins from 654 runners (SR 39.1%) for a profit of £1.85 (ROI +0.28%). OK, essentially this is a breakeven situation but, even so, that is still very impressive from a ratings set. One definitely needs to note horses top rated by the SR figures when they happen to be favourite at Kempton.

 

Sire performance at Kempton

Here are the top 20 sires in terms of strike rate at Kempton since 2017 (150 runs or more to qualify; and must have had runners in 2022):

 

 

Dubawi led the Chelmsford stats in terms of sire strike rates, and has repeated the feat here; but, despite winning over 20% of races, losses have been steep at 44p in the £.

Two sires that I am immediately drawn to in the table above are Lethal Force and Dutch Art. Both sires had good A/E indices at Chelmsford and they have repeated the dose here with Lethal Force at 1.20 and Dutch Art at 1.02. Not only that, both have edged into SP profit. There are nine other sires in the table that have A/E indices of 1.00 or more and these sires are also worth keeping an eye on.

I did look briefly at damsire data and noted that Singspiel currently has the best win strike rate at 15.5% and with an A/E index of 1.13. Only three other damsires have A/E indices of 1.00 or above: Royal Applause (1.04), Red Ransom (1.00) and Selkirk (1.00).

 

Kempton 'Horses for courses'

My final port of call was to look at some horses that have excelled at Kempton since 2017. To qualify for the list they must have won at least four races at the track with an overall course strike rate of 25% or more. Further, they must have raced somewhere in the UK in 2022. Here are the horses that qualified. I have included a PRB column too (Percentage of rivals beaten):

 

 

Eight-time course winner Soar Above is an interesting horse because he clearly loves Kempton, but away from the Sunbury track his record is poor. Kempton is a right-handed track and we can see how successful he has been there – he has also been placed five times along with those eight wins. Away from Kempton, he has raced only on left-handed or straight tracks and, combining these results, he's had just one win and two placed efforts from 18 starts. This includes 0 from 7 on other all-weather tracks (all left-handed). Perhaps Soar Above is an example of a horse that simply prefers running right-handed. Some horses definitely are more suited to turning one way than the other, though I have generally seen it more in National Hunt racing: probably the most famous example was Desert Orchid, who also had a preference for right-handed turns.

So there we have it. Kempton is a course with betting possibilities across the board:

- Favourites have quite a solid record, especially when top rated by Peter May’s SR figures.

- There are also a few stables to potentially keep on the right side of, perhaps notably the Charlton yard.

- Male horses should generally take preference over female ones as is the norm on the sand.

- There are some distances with an edge to lower draws (6f especially).

- There are some distances where front runners have a good edge (5f-7f).

- The 6f trip is the main one to concentrate on from a draw and run style perspective.

 

Let me finish then by sharing a PRB heat map overlaying draw thirds and run styles for 8+ runner 6f handicaps at Kempton since 2017:

 

 

 

This neatly demonstrates the strength of both biases. A low drawn horse has a definite edge unless it is held up; front runners enjoy huge success regardless of draw position. These heat maps can be found in the Draw Analyser and for each individual race in the daily racecards. It is a really useful tool to get a feel for any such biases. (Be careful, though, when looking at the Draw Analyser with all-weather courses – you need to change the going setting to incorporate not just ‘standard’ but cover all required going options).

- DR

 

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