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Trainer Profiles: Gordon Elliott

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We head back to Ireland for my next trainer profile; this time I will be examining the record of Gordon Elliott. In this article I will be drilling down into just under ten years of National Hunt racing data from 1st January 2013 to 31st October 2022, the majority of which can be sourced by members using the Geegeez Query Tool. All profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price but where appropriate I will share Betfair SP data as that is a better guide these days of the likely profits/losses punters will make.

The main body of this piece will look at Elliott's record when running horses in Ireland. However, I will also examine his UK record as he sends plenty of runners across on the ferry.

Gordon Elliott Brief Bio

Elliott was not born into a racing family, but he started working for Tony Martin in his teens before riding in point to points and under rules. Towards the end of his riding career, before injury curtailed that part of his CV, he rode for Martin Pipe for a year as a conditional.

In 2006 Elliott took out his training license, operating out of Cullentra House Stables, and just a year later became the youngest trainer ever to win the Grand National, courtesy of the former Paul Nicholls inmate, Silver Birch. He has also won the Gold Cup at Cheltenham, one of his 33 winners at the Festival. He mainly focuses on National Hunt racing but he does have a few runners on the flat, and has enjoyed success at Royal Ascot (Pallasator) as well as winning the Ebor Handicap at York (Dirar). He was banned for six months in 2021 after being photographed astride a dead horse, a reckless act. We will probably have to wait another year or two to see what, if any, long term effect that has on his success.

 

Gordon Elliott: Irish racing Record

As stated, the main part of this analysis will focus on Elliott's domestic record.

Gordon Elliott Record by Year

We'll begin with a yearly performance breakdown:

 

It is worth pointing out that 2022 (to date) has produced the lowest win strike rate and the lowest A/E index of the near decade in focus. Has this something to do with the repercussions of his ban? Possibly, but as I mentioned above we will probably need a bit longer to formulate a clearer opinion on that. Even though he lost some high profile horses at that time, it wouldn’t take a lot to pull the strike rate back up over the last two months of 2022.

[Update, Elliott finished 2022 with a domestic strike rate of 14.84%, in line with results since 2018 - Ed.]

It's time to dig a bit deeper.

 

Gordon Elliott Performance by Race Type

A look at race types first; I have excluded hunter chases as he has had just 16 runners over the ten years.

 

 

In terms of strike rate National Hunt Flat races are comfortably the best performers; it is also the sphere that has seen the smallest losses to SP. Interestingly, though, there is little in it when we examine the A/E indices. Amazingly, one could have made a small profit in chases if backing at BSP, and a slightly bigger one using the machine in NH Flat races. Hurdle races returned a loss to BSP but only just over 7%.

Gordon Elliott Performance in National Hunt Flat Races

It makes sense to dig first into these flat contests. I would like to share market rank data first as it is quite revealing:

 

 

Elliott has an outstanding record with bumper favourites, close to a 50% strike rate. Compare this to the 39.8% success rate of ALL trainers with favourites in Irish NH Flat races, and you can see why this is such a strong stat. Using BSP he would have snuck into profit which, again, for favourite data, is impressive. A/E index at 0.99 is also high.

Less impressive are the performances of second and third favourites, who recorded modest win percentages and significant losses to SP. Painfully, even at BSP, second favourites would have lost you nearly 27p in the £ if backing them all, and over 35p in the £ at industry odds.

Here are a few extra stats for NH Flat races that hopefully readers will find useful:

  1. Male runners outperform female runners, scoring 23.1% of the time to 16.9%. Female losses have been around 6.5p in the £ worse when compared to male returns (Industry SP). However, female favourites actually have done better than their male counterparts, albeit from only 53 runners. Female favourites have returned an impressive 26.5% profit;
  1. Jockey Mr J Codd (Jamie) has secured an overall SR% of just over 30% (116 wins from 381) with losses of only 7p in the £ to SP; to BSP this flips to an 11p in the £ profit;
  1. Horses on debut have a very good record in these races. There have been 435 runners of which 96 have won (SR 22.1%). Profits to SP stand at £27.62 (ROI +6.3%); to BSP this becomes £144.17 (ROI +33.1%). Note, there have been a few big-priced winners in this cohort but nothing outlandish. For the record he has had ten winners priced between 14/1 and 25/1.

 

Gordon Elliott Performance in Chases

A quick review of chases now. Looking at Elliott's yearly stats in terms of win strike rate and win & placed (Each way) strike rate we see the following:

 

Gordon Elliott, win and each way performance in Irish chases

 

Both lines show a gradual drop off in success when compared with the early to mid-2010's. From 2018 to 2022 the average win strike rate was 12.2%; the previous five year period was up at 16.8%. Likewise, the each-way five year splits see the latest period on 31.6% while the earlier five year block was nearly seven percentage points higher at 38.5%, a relative differential of around 20%. Not surprisingly, returns to £1 win level stakes have been much poorer between 2018 and 2022 compared with 2013 to 2017 – 15p in the £ poorer to be precise.

The same pattern can be seen when looking at the performance of his runners in chases when they start favourite:

 

Gordon Elliott, record with chase favourites 2013 to October 2022

 

Elliott made a profit to SP in five of the six seasons between 2013 and 2018 but, since then, he has made a loss each year, with 2020 and 2021 being particularly poor. This is essentially down to the clear drop in strike rate. [Update, by the end of 2022, Elliott had crept into profit for the year with his chase favourites, returning +4.78% ROI at a 43.48% win rate]

However, before moving on there is one further stat I would like to share with you: horses priced 14/1 or bigger have provided a profit to BSP despite a strike rate of just 3.5% (26 wins from 735 runners). To £1 level stakes (BSP) profits stand at £314.17 (ROI +42.7%). I guess many punters on Betfair ignore his bigger priced runners and hence their prices are inflated somewhat, though at that strike rate you can expect to go a very long time between drinks (losing sequences of 45, 48 twice, 49, 51, 52, 67, 75 and 88) !!!

 

Gordon Elliott Performance in Hurdle Races

Our final race code stop is the smaller obstacles, and one interesting comparison is when we look at age stats:

 

 

We see a very clear preference to the younger group with correlation across strike rates, returns, A/E indices and Impact Values.

Before moving on I want to look quickly at hurdles distance data now. There is a slight dip in performance in races of 3 miles or more as the graph below highlights:

 

 

There are notably lower win and win/placed (each way) strike rates over the longer distance hurdle contests. These are races where I suggest one thinks twice about backing Elliott runners.

 

Gordon Elliott Performance by Course

Onto racecourse data now. I am going to look at all courses where Elliott has had at least 100 runners and break the data down into different subsets. I am going to look at win strike rate and A/E indices across National Hunt Flat races, hurdle races and chases. With a ‘par’ A/E index for all trainers at around 0.87, I have highlighted A/E indices of 0.95 or higher in green – these are positive. A/E indices of 0.79 or lower (in red) are negative. Missing values means that within that race code subset Elliott had fewer than 40 runners:

 

 

There is a huge variety of figures here as one might expect, more A/E indices coloured red than green showing there are several course/race type combinations where he has struggled a little or, more fairly perhaps, where he is overbet. Courses where the stats across the board are generally positive include Down Royal, Clonmel (note that NH Flat rate is 25% from 36 races, just below the threshold for display) and Navan. Courses to avoid look to be Killarney, Leopardstown and Wexford. It may also make sense to steer clear of hurdle races at Galway, Gowran Park and Tipperary. In terms of chases it looks best to avoid Gowran Park and Naas.

 

Gordon Elliott Performance by Starting Price

Industry SP performance data now. I have looked at market position in National Hunt Flat races already, but it’s time to break all Elliott's runners down by starting price:

 

 

The most positive data comes from the odds-on group followed by the Evens to 15/8 bracket. Odds-on runners are actually very close to breaking even.

In general, the betting returns in terms of SP get worse as the starting price increases. By graphing the A/E indices we can perhaps see the downward trend more clearly:

 

 

Sticking with the front end of the market, we saw earlier that NH Flat favourites were close to breaking even to Industry SP so I decided to look at the hurdle and chase favourite data, too. Chase favourites lost around 6p in the £ and hurdlers close to 11p. This improves to marginally more palatable losses of 3p and 6p to BSP.

As a general rule I would say that shorter priced runners from the Elliott yard are worth close scrutiny and in certain circumstances will offer a modicum of value. If, however, you are the other side of the price fence and prefer longshots, it should be said that despite the 32% losses to SP which 14/1+ horses have amassed, to BSP they have actually proved profitable. These runners have won on average just once in every 29 attempts so - as mentioned earlier - if you head down this longshot road, expect it to be a rocky one.

 

Gordon Elliott Performance by Running Style

To begin with let us see the proportion of his runners that fit a specific running style. Geegeez breaks these running styles into four groups: Led – front runners; horse or horses that take an early lead; Prominent – horses that track the pace close behind the leader(s); Mid Division – horses that race mid pack; Held Up – horses that race at, or near the back of the field early.

Here are the splits for Elliott:

 

 

In terms of front runners / early leaders, Elliott sends a relatively modest proportion of his horses to the front: the average front-running figure is 10% for all Irish trainers, so he stands a little below that. Prominent runners, however, have accounted for just under 40% of all runners from the stable which compares with around 30% of all Irish runners; so Elliott is comfortably above the average here.

Let us now see the win success rate of each running style:

 

 

Front runners / early leaders score close to 30% of the time, but remember he sends less than 10% of all his runners to the front early. Some, including me, would say why does he not send more horses to lead early? Prominent racers are comfortably next best in terms of win success with poor strike rates (and very poor returns) for horses positioned further back early in their races.

I want to look at favourites now and see their success rate in terms of run style:

 

 

These are very strong win percentages for front running favourites (over 55% win success) and prominent market leaders do well also, standing at just above 42%. There is a clear drop again when we look at midfield and held up horses sent off favourite. Hence a front running favourite for Elliott is a potent weapon. Here is the figures for favourites by run style, at starting price:

 

 

Essentially if you back an Elliott runner and it goes to the front early, you have far more chance of a) the horse winning and b) making a long term profit. This is especially true if the horse is favoured.

 

Gordon Elliott Performance by Jockey

Onto some jockey analysis now and a look at any jockey who has ridden at least 75 times for Elliott since 2013, with the proviso that they have had at least one ride for the stable in 2022. I have ordered them by number of rides starting with the most:

 

 

We saw earlier that Jamie Codd has a good record in National Hunt Flat races and these are the races he primarily rides in. Regular riders Jack Kennedy and Davy Russell have very similar strike rates – Russell has provided slightly better overall returns to SP, but these are flipped if we examine BSP returns. Both actually have recorded profits on 'the machine', Russell 3p in the £ and Kennedy up at 11p in the £. Kennedy has a good record on favourites scoring 42.9% of the time; all other jockeys combined have scored just under 40% of the time on stable favourites.

Of course, since this study period, Dave Russell has announced his retirement. The main beneficiary is expected to be Kennedy, though Jordan Gainford is also one to watch.

So that brings the curtain down on the Irish side of his record, let’s take a quick look at the UK data now:

 

Gordon Elliott: UK racing record

Here are Elliott's overall figures in the UK over the past nearly ten years:

 

 

As might be expected given the costs of travel and the logistical effort, he enjoys a much higher strike rate. Minimal losses to SP are a slight surprise; indeed, to BSP Elliott has returned 12p in the £ profit on his UK runners.

 

Gordon Elliott Performance by UK racecourse

Perth and Cheltenham are the courses to which Elliott has sent the vast majority of his UK runners. There are five courses where he saddled 40 or more runners (shown below):

 

 

His record at Perth is pretty much bombproof. He has had only one winner priced bigger than 10/1 in the research period (Dantes King at 20/1 in 2013). With horses priced 10/1 or shorter at the Scottish track he has produced returns of 8p in the £ to SP, double that to 16p for BSP.

At Ayr his performance is more mixed: he has made a small profit with favourites, but any horse that has not started favourite has generally run poorly. As a group those non-favourites have won just five races from 63 (SR 7.9%) losing nearly 60p in the £ to SP; 49p loss to BSP.

At Cheltenham, Elliott has a much lower strike rate compared to other courses, which is fully to be expected given both the quality and quantity of opposition, but he has still edged into profit to SP. 257 of his 347 Cheltenham runners in the study period ran at the Cheltenham Festival so let’s look his festival record.

 

Gordon Elliott Performance at Cheltenham Festival

Of his 33 Cheltenham Festival winners, 32 have been achieved in the last ten years. He has been leading trainer at the meeting in two of the last ten years, 2017 and 2018. Here is a graph of yearly performance in terms of wins:

 

 

He had no runners in 2021, when he was serving his ban (Denise Foster, who took over the licence during that time, had three winners at the 2021 Festival); and last year (2022) Elliott did seem to underperform a little, especially if we compare it with 2017 to 2020. Having said that he had six seconds, so if two or three of those had won then I probably wouldn’t have mentioned anything. The perils of tiny sample sizes!

If you had backed all Gordon Elliott runners at the Cheltenham Festival to BSP over the past ten years a profit to £1 level stakes of £161.06 would have been achieved. This equates to returns just shy of 63 pence for every £1 bet. In six of the nine years you would have made a BSP profit on his runners. For the record, the vast majority of the profits have come from Class 1 races.

What is also impressive is the breadth of races where he has been successful: Elliott has won 17 different races at the meeting ranging from the Gold Cup to the Champion Bumper to the Cross Country Chase to the Pertemps to the Supreme Novices to the Triumph Hurdle, etc.

One final stat to be aware of at the Festival is that he actually has a better record with horses wearing some sort of headgear - especially a tongue tie, both from a strike rate perspective and a returns perspective.

 

 

 

Gordon Elliott UK Performance by Race Type

A look now at race type and I have again ignored hunter chases as he has had only eight runners in such events. As we can see, Elliott has done well with his hurdlers when sending them over to the UK:

 

 

A one in four strike rate in UK hurdle races is hugely impressive as are the positive overall returns. Favourites in hurdle races have also impressed as a group, scoring nearly 50% of the time for returns of almost 9p in the £ to SP; 14p to BSP. Horses in National Hunt Flat races have a similar strike rate to that achieved in Ireland but losses have been steep. This is due to the fact that many of his runners in these events start at prohibitive odds.

 

Gordon Elliott – Extra stats and nuggets for UK Racing

Lastly on the UK data here are three extra stats to be aware of:

  1. If you ignore horses that finished first or second last time out his record reads 143 wins from 735 runners (SR 19.5%) for a SP profit of £53.03 (ROI +7.2%); BSP profit stands at £194.65 (ROI +26.5%);
  1. Horses that raced at Cheltenham last time out have won 14 races from 59 making SP returns of 32p in the £ (49p to BSP);
  1. When jockey Sean Bowen rides, the results have been impressive: 34 wins from 104 (SR 32.7%) for an SP profit of £15.87 (ROI +15.3%); BSP profit £27.54 (ROI +26.5%)

 

Summary - Gordon Elliott Key Takeaways

Irish Racing

 

 

UK Racing

 

 

So there you have it – the next year or two will be interesting due to potential repercussions of the 2021 ban, though the early signs are that most data are largely in line with pre-suspension levels. There are plenty of solid pointers, both positive and negative, with which to inform your betting in 2023.

Good luck!

- DR

2022: The Best Bits

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It's been another bumper year of content on geegeez, the daily news and pointers feeds supplemented by some outstanding contributions from our editorial team. What follows is a selection of some of the top posts published here in 2022.

Beneath the pick of the posts, I've also added links to the author's full article lists if you want to read more from a particular writer.

 

Racing Systems: An Introduction

Dave Renham sets the scene for the considered use of systematic betting, and how to start out on the right foot.

 

Racing Systems: Using Systems to Create Shortlists

In one of a number of follow up articles, Dave looks at how to create shortlists from rule-based systems, and why this offers greater flexibility.

 

Making Long Range Cheltenham Festival Projections 

Here, I looked at the pointers from the spring festivals in terms of next season's Cheltenham Festival, in the hope of unearthing a value long range play or two. How are they doing?

 

An Existential Threat (from within) to UK National Hunt Racing

In this long read, I examined some of the major challenges jump racing faces; why they exist; and what might be done to resolve them.

 

2022 Draw Bias Top Ten, part 1

Dave spent a lot of time in 2022 writing about draw bias, and he closed out his series with a two-part top ten. This first half looks at 10-6.

2022 Draw Bias Top Ten, part 2

Naturally enough, if you were interested in positions ten to six, you'll want to know the top five. These are those...

 

Using Past Run Style as a Profitable Indicator

Regular readers will know the emphasis we place on understanding run style. In this article, Dave outlines why it's so important and how to use history as a future profit indicator. Part 2 of this article can be found here.

 

Betting the Breeders' Cup Roller Coaster

The Breeders' Cup is one of my favourite meetings of the year, and in 2022 it featured the monster Flightline as its headline act. Betting was, erm, not straightforward, as this tale relates...

 

Roving Reports: Lucky Man

A new member of the scribbling team in 2022 is David Massey, whose irreverent tales of his travels and travails on track have been a refreshing 'easy read' counterpoint to some of the hard data entries above. In this episode, Dave recounts his great 'fortune' to be doing the circuit this particular week.

 

Author Article Lists

Below are each author's own page, where all of their articles can be found. For the curious/voracious reader, these are a treasure trove of racing tales and profitable pointers, and much more besides. Enjoy!

Matt Bisogno

Dave Renham

Chris Worrall

Tony Stafford

David Massey

Andy Newton's Trends

 

We'll all be back before you know it with more of the same in 2023 (and a smidge more still in 2022).

And, one final time before the year closes, I'd like say that I know you have a huge array of choice of where to go and what to read for your racing fix; we're extremely grateful that geegeez.co.uk is a part of that mix.

From all of us here, wishing you and yours a very Happy New Year, and the best of luck for 2023.

Matt

Trainer Profiles: Donald McCain

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We head to Cheshire to meet the next trainer in this Profiles series, and welcome Donald McCain. As with previous pieces I will be sharing nearly ten years of UK National Hunt racing data from 1st January 2013 to 31st October 2022. The vast majority of the stats I share with you can be sourced by members using from the Geegeez Query Tool. All profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price and I will quote both SP and Betfair SP returns where appropriate.

Donald McCain Brief Bio

Born in 1970, Donald McCain is the son of the legendary trainer of Red Rum, Ginger McCain. He took over from his father in June 2006 having worked as his assistant previously. He also rode in his youth and, over the years, gained experience in the racing business when working for Luca Cumani, Sir Michael Stoute and Oliver Sherwood. As a trainer he has won the Grand National (2011 with Ballabriggs) and enjoyed success at the Cheltenham Festival six times, albeit before the period of study for this piece (2006 to 2012). In fact, between 2009 and 2012 his overall win strike rate stood at 19.2% - this is worth noting when looking at the last ten years which I plan to do right now!

Donald McCain Overall Record

Let's break McCain's win record down first by year:

 

 

Overall, SP losses have equated to 21p in the £ over this 10-year period; to BSP it has been nearer 11p in the £. As we can see, from 2015 to 2020, with the exception of 2017, the win strike rate dropped quite markedly. However, there has been a very positive uptick, or so it seems, in the past two seasons. This recent improvement has been mirrored when we study the win and placed (Each Way) percentages:

 

 

So McCain’s journey as a trainer seems to have gone from early highs to modest lows and now to new highs. Any trainer can have fluctuations from year to year so it will be interesting to see whether the stable can maintain their stronger recent form in the next year or two.

Time to dig a bit deeper.

Donald McCain Performance by Race Distance

Splitting his performance by distance first:

 

There is not much to be gleaned from the race distance splits: a slightly better win percentage at shorter distances, but returns and A/E indices across the three groups are similar. If we split the distances stats comparing chases with hurdle races, we see the following win percentages:

 

 

Again, we see remarkably similar figures. This seems to suggest that McCain doesn't specialise, and is equally adept at training all types of horses.

Donald McCain Performance in Chases

I want to dig into chases races in more detail. Let me start by splitting them into handicap and non-handicap contests:

 

As can be seen in the table, there are considerably more handicap runners and, overall, they have proved far better value. To BSP, losses in handicaps are down at around 5p in the £. Below is a course breakdown of McCain's chase record in terms of strike rate at tracks where he has had at least 75 runners:

 

 

The strike rates are in a fairly narrow range, except for Aintree, where McCain has had just one winner in 76 chase races. He has made an SP profit at three courses – Catterick, Kelso and Musselburgh.

One course that is not on the list is Perth, but his chase record there is worth sharing. He has an excellent strike rate at the Scottish track of 30.4% thanks to 21 wins from 69 runners. Profits to SP stand at £27.23 (ROI +39.5%). To BSP, returns edge up to 50% (50p in the £). He picks up winners there consistently despite averaging only seven runners at the track a year. He has saddled at least two winners in eight of the last ten years and, in one of the other years (2020), he didn’t send any runners there at all.

If we combine the yard's chase record at all Scottish tracks, they have saddled 67 winners from 310 (SR 21.6%) for a profit of £39.52 (ROI +12.8%). Exchange returns increase by just over 9p in the £ to 22p.

Before moving on, here are a few extra chase nuggets worth noting:

1. Horses having their second chase start have secured 37 wins from 162 (SR 22.8%) for a small SP profit of £12.01 (ROI +7.4%); BSP profits stand at £28.58 (ROI +17.6%);

2. Chasers returning to the track within two weeks of their last run have won 37 races from 129 runners (SR 28.7%) for a profit of £48.83 (ROI +37.9%); profit to BSP is £65.24 (ROI +50.6%);

3. Horses aged 6 or 7 have been far more successful in chases than other ages. 6 and 7yos have combined to score 19.5% of the time (165 wins from 848); all other ages combined (4, 5, and 8+) have won 12.4% of the time (93 wins from 747).

Let's take a look at hurdle races now.

Donald McCain Performance in Hurdles

Let’s start once again with handicap versus non handicap splits:

 

This time we see a much better win percentage in non-handicap hurdle races but without too much of a differential in returns as far as Industry SP is concerned. However, to BSP, non-handicaps have lost just 3p in the £, compared to 13p for handicaps.

A course breakdown now and I am sticking to courses that have had 85 or more runners in hurdle races. I have chosen 85 as the ‘cap’ as I wanted to include the Scottish course Ayr (where there were 86 runners in the study period). I have ordered the courses by win strike rate percentage:

 

 

Aintree results are poor once more, as are those at Market Rasen. From a positive perspective, the Scottish courses tend to sit near the top of the table in terms of strike rate once again, although there is none of the overall profit that we saw in the chase data. Two courses have shown a profit to SP (Bangor and Newcastle) and the Bangor data is worth digging down into. Firstly, McCain's hurdle record at the Welsh course by year:

 

 

There was a dip in 2015, part of the period when the yard struggled, but the other nine years have seen strike rates above 18% which suggests he targets this course somewhat; in seven of the ten years there was a profit to SP, and in eight of the ten years a profit to BSP. These are consistent hurdle profits at Bangor rather than simply a couple of huge priced winners skewing the P&L column. Indeed, if we focus on horses priced 8/1 or shorter McCain’s hurdle performance at Bangor is extremely good:

 

 

Those are excellent numbers and, for the record, returns to BSP edge just over 40p in the £.

Bangor, McCain and hurdle races should definitely be on our radar in the future.

Donald McCain Performance in National Hunt Flat races

Here are the figures for all National Hunt Flat races (bumpers):

 

These are very modest figures from a betting perspective in spite of the decent strike rate. Losses to BSP were also steep at a painful 26p in the £. This suggests he has not had many big priced winners in this sphere and that is indeed the case. McCain runners priced 10/1 or bigger in bumpers have won just twice from 135 for a loss of £103.00 (ROI -76.3%). Ouch.

His performance at the front end of the market is not too bad, however; horses priced 3/1 or lower have won 34.9% of their races losing just 4p in the £ to SP and breaking even to BSP. Having said that, odds-on runners have won just 41% of the time losing a hefty 32.8p in the £.

Here are three more NH Flat race stats for stable that readers may find useful:

1. McCain has had just 15 NHF runners at Musselburgh but eight have won; he is 10 from 32 at Carlisle as well;

2. Jockey Brian Hughes has a 23.6% win strike rate in these races for McCain;

3. Horses that have had three or more previous career runs (that includes flat/AW races) have won just 11% of races losing over 60p in the £ to SP; 54p in the £ to BSP.

Donald McCain Performance by Starting Price

We have seen a small amount SP data already, but let us now look at all races as a whole:

 

 

The win strike rates go down uniformly as the price bands increase – it would be weird if that wasn’t the case. Industry SP losses have been the smallest with the Evens to 15/8 bracket, but there doesn’t seem a pattern to returns as a whole. However, I would definitely steer clear of his bigger priced runners (14/1 or bigger) – even to BSP you would have lost 20p in the £. This is much higher than the average loss across all 14/1 + runners which stands at around 13p.

Donald McCain Performance by Running Style

A look at run style next. To begin with let us see the proportion of runners that fit a specific run style. Geegeez breaks these run styles into four:

Led – front runners, horses that take or share an early lead; Prominent – horses that track the pace close behind the leader(s); Mid Division – horses that race mid pack; Held Up – horses that race at, or near the back of the field early.

Here are the splits for McCain:

 

 

We can see the preferred running style seems to be tracking the early pace (prominent runners); that position has accounted for nearly 40% of all runners from the stable. The early leader / front runner percentage is also high at over 27% which is good to see. Regular readers of my articles will know that horses that take the lead early win more often than any of the other run styles. Not surprisingly, this is the case for McCain as we look at the win strike rates across all run styles:

 

 

Around one in four of McCain's front runners have won, whereas just one in 14 of his hold up horses have passed the post first. Indeed, if you had backed all of his hold up horses you would have lost a whopping 43p in the £ to SP.

I want to look at favourites now in terms of their success rate by run style:

 

 

The win percentage for hold up horses that start favourite is extremely poor and would have lost you a remarkable 49p in the £. Once again front running favourites do best, and comfortably so.

Before moving on, I have looked at front running performance across different courses to see if front runners have done better at some courses than others. The graph below compares all courses where McCain has had at least 40 runners that have taken an early lead (I have rounded the %s to the nearest whole number so it fits more neatly on the graph).

 

 

There is quite a range of success here: excellent at Ayr (18 winners from 44), much less so at Aintree (two wins from 46). As we have seen, McCain's overall Aintree stats are poor so this will come as no surprise.

Donald McCain Performance by Jockey

Onto some jockey analysis now. A look at any jockey who has ridden at least 100 times for McCain since 2013, with the proviso that they have had at least one ride for the stable in 2022. I have ordered them by number of rides starting with the most:

 

 

Stable jockey Brian Hughes has by far the best strike rate. Losses of 13p in the £ were incurred to SP; with BSP, this improves to 4p in the £. Theo Gillard is in profit but a 40/1 winner makes all the difference between a profit and a loss.

As far as Hughes is concerned here are some stats worth noting:

1. Hughes has a 32% success rate on front runners;

2. On favourites he has essentially broken even; clear favourites have just nudged into profit;

3. In races of 2m1f or less he has secured a strike rate of over 24% with marginal 2% losses to SP; 11% profit to BSP;

4. Horses priced 3/1 or less (SP) have provided a BSP return on 6% (6p in the £);

5. Hughes when riding a horse who is having their first career start has a strike rate of one in three and a profit to BSP around the 35p in the £ mark.

Let's summarise the key findings from this research...

Donald McCain – Main Takeaways

It seems that Donald McCain is moving in the right direction once more. It will be interesting to see if he is able to sustain success around the 20% win mark again this season – early signs suggest he will be close.

 

I hope you have found this piece useful.

Best wishes for the remainder of the festive period, and wishing you a very Happy New Year.

- Dave Renham

(Late) Monday Musings: The Ol’ One-Two

/in /by

You have a mare like Epatante, winner of a past Champion Hurdle, successful in 11 and placed in seven more of her 19 career runs and you now know – having witnessed Aintree last year, that she probably ought to be contesting races of 2m4f up, writes Tony Stafford.

With the weather as it has been and the Ascot course’s susceptibility to rapid changes of going, Nicky Henderson was pushed into allowing her to take on stable star – sorry, world phenomenon – Constitution Hill as the calendar compressed when the Fighting Fifth came along.

Instead of the queen, she became the high-maintenance Queen Consort, by her liege’s side until turning for home and then deferring graciously while accepting a £20k pay-day for her trouble.

Once the pattern was set, who was to complain when the old one-two was set in motion again for yesterday’s Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle? While there were five starters, the box which brought the big two to Sunbury might just as easily have been transporting the elite pair across Lambourn for a routine gallop.

As they turned for home, Highway One O One had the temerity to sit in between his betters, still just second as the mare started to flex her muscles. You could not have predicted what happened from that point based on what you had seen until that point, but the evidence of Cheltenham last March and Gosforth Park last month gave the game away.

Mark Johnson’s commentary told it all. Just over a length before two out, three lengths from Epatante on the way to the last; stretched to eight at that final flight and once he met it running, a 17-length margin on a track where distances are never exaggerated unlike many courses in winter ground.

For two little spins behind Constitution Hill, Epatante has picked up around £50k this season and is now that amount short of £1 million in career earnings. Nicky Henderson seems to be favouring going straight to the Festival with this best hurdler I have ever seen and rightly so, I’m sure.

It’s that final kick that is other-worldly. Horses can finish well: he finishes them off and with no suggestion of any weakness; ground or track, style of racing – he has it all.

The Irish must be hoping that somehow his level of ability suddenly drops off, but if Henderson has acquired anything in a training career exceeding 40 years, it’s knowing how to win a big race with a favourite. And even he has never had a favourite like this one.

I was delighted when I saw him at the Horserace Writers and Photographers lunch after he collected his Order Of Merit award for his outstanding career. He was truly chuffed and I told him I thought it well deserved. The shy nature that often comes out in his dealings with the media was there all through that afternoon.

His reputation, already secured, will now have the added insurance, as with Sir Henry Cecil and Frankel, of having his best-ever horse towards the end of his career. It’s probably a case of how long he, Michael Buckley and the horse can be bothered with steam-rollering good (but not good enough) opponents.

I was less delighted to pick up Covid there, after two and a half years of escaping it. I got it mildly, but you never know what’s underneath. At least, it’s not like being a little bit pregnant!

It was a great day for heroes old and new at Kempton yesterday and if anyone thinks that Kempton is a sharp track, the result of the redirected Long Walk Hurdle, from a frozen this time Ascot, would have entertained second thoughts at least.

Here that great stayer Paisley Park came from the back of the field to out-finish Goshen – in the new long-distance role which he can adorn – and Champ by an emphatic margin in a domestic private affair. The Irish will be out in force at Cheltenham in March, but Andrew Gemmell’s heroic 10-year-old can be relied upon to keep his end up.

Times are often misleading but if you had an involvement with Rare Edition, the Charlie Longsdon novice who easily won Monday’s Kempton opener, you would be thrilled to see that his winning time was only two seconds slower than that recorded by Constitution Hill. A seven-length winner, it would be great if this initially non-winning graduate from the Irish point-to-point field, but now unbeaten in four for Longsdon, could challenge the stars next March.

One invader from Ireland that could be there to challenge him is the one-time Derby favourite, High Definition, who made a winning hurdles debut at Leopardstown from the Joseph O’Brien stable ten minutes before Rare Edition showed his paces.

High Definition had won his first two races as a juvenile, including a Group 2, before going into winter quarters with the endorsement of Joseph’s father Aidan ringing in the professionals’ ears. Even when he came back late and looking lazy in the Dante, the story still held over logic, but he never made it to Epsom and then never looked in with a chance when he did get his chance in a Classic on the Curragh in late June.

Until yesterday, High Definition had gone more than two years without winning – his best performance being a second to Alenquer in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup over ten furlongs in May.

Because there are so many horses that want for some inexplicable reason to take on Messrs Mullins, Elliott, de Bromhead and, yes, when he has a suitable one, O’Brien junior, you get the sort of field that faced High Definition. Twenty-seven runners around Leopardstown, but happily that’s a big, wide track, and it’s made easier as self-selection probably boils this down to three lots of nine.

The old instruction by the UK starters in the days of Gordon Richards either side of WW2 and the old 'gate' starts of “triers at the front” is an approximation to how it works in Irish (and some British) novice races today. They quickly sort out into manageable groupings – three races in one.

Just a look at the first seven there: O’Brien, from Jessica Harrington, Willie Mullins, Peter Fahey, de Bromhead, Mullins again and Gordon Elliott, tells a tale if not a definitive one. The other 20 have to look after themselves, although there’s some pricey types back there too on probably different time-schedules with handicaps in mind for many.

The Racing TV shrewdies – and Boxing Day’s lot, which included Dave Nevison, were sharp enough – noticed High Definition is still  a colt, until next Sunday at any rate when he becomes a horse – of course! The Coolmore NH stallion roster is a highly lucrative end of the business and they reasoned that could be his magnum opus.

It was only on December 20th that High Definition morphed from the usual Coolmore owner group to Mrs J Magnier’s sole possession. I’m sure the others can come back in if and when they wish. I’d love to see High Definition at Cheltenham, possibly measuring up to the more NH-oriented Rare Edition, who showed his paces just 10 minutes later.

Those same Racing TV boys seemed to think the Triumph Hurdle is all but won already, a pretty complacent view at this stage. The Willie Mullins-trained Lossiemouth, another of those unbeaten French purchases, won her graded race for juveniles in almost five seconds slower time than High Definition earlier in the card, but she impressed Dave in particular.

She did win as she liked, making it three easy victories in three. A rare bargain from France at €14k before she had run, she is by Great Pretender, from the family of smart flat-racer Lord Glitters. She must be one of the cheaper buys to grace the Cheltenham-voracious Ricci colours.

Once more, Coquelicot has run in the couple of days before my article, at Kempton yesterday for a 3m mares’ handicap hurdle with six in opposition. She beat a Dan Skelton rival in West Balboa last time at Sandown and this time had the favourite Get A Tonic from the same source ten lengths behind. Alas, on revised weight terms and after a more contested early lead than she's recently encountered, she gave best to the aforementioned Charlie Longsdon-trained Glimpse Of Gala, the rest of the field strung out behind at five length intervals. Hard luck, Mr Editor and partners, but she'll be winning again soon.

- TS

Monday Musings: My Boy Micky

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After a totally blank week of jumping and not much some-weather racing either, a £5k to the winner race ought not be taking much of my attention as we wait for the elements to relent in time for the big Christmas programmes in the UK and Ireland, writes Tony Stafford.

The Irish took the first step back to normality as Thurles returned with a nice pre-Christmas card yesterday and Lingfield may well provide yet another surprise in its new-drainage incarnation by welcoming jumping back to the UK later this morning. [Sadly not, Ed.}

Recently, Gary Moore described the 2022-23 jumps season as his “worst-ever”, referring to one of his local tracks, the above-mentioned Lingfield, as the only one where he has found “proper soft ground”. Moore cites the dry summer; low sun when racing does go ahead eliminating hurdles and fences in many races, and unsuitably fast ground when racing is actually on.

Now the latest spate of abandonments – sometimes delayed until the horses are in the paddock ready to go for the opening race or while horses are still arriving at the tracks – has added to the difficulties. Horses need to be readied and kept up to scratch in anticipation of racing’s proceeding, even though, as Gary says, they know it’s futile. It has all made it hell for trainers and most importantly for the people that pay the bills – the owners.

The lack of clarity of thought descended to a new level of wishful thinking from officialdom on Saturday when Polytrack fixtures, at Lingfield and Chelmsford, due to be televised on ITV4 amid much trumpeting that terrestrial television was keeping the racing show on the road, both grudgingly had to accept defeat after two morning inspections each.

I had occasion to talk to Roger Teal soon after he had arrived with his intended runner at the Lingfield stables at around 9.a.m. in the full knowledge that a second inspection was imminent. He said: “I’ve just got here, it’s minus 5, what do you think?” If it were me, I don’t think I would have waited for an official announcement and a similar situation caused an identical outcome 85 miles across the snow-covered deep-frozen Home Counties around the M25 in deepest Essex.

I had been at Chelmsford nine days earlier when Becky Smith had come on a mission to ride a couple of Micky Hammond runners at the evening meeting there. One fourth and one unplaced did nothing in much-needed points towards her wavering challenge for the amateur riders’ flat crown and she has also been frustrated that a similar close bid for the lady amateurs’ jumps title has also stalled.

With time very short, she conceded she will have to try again next year, but her attitude sums up the entire ethos of her boss, Micky Hammond, and his assistant Gemma Hogg, Becky’s elder sister.

I remember Micky as a top NH rider for Reg Akehurst among others in the South in the 1970’s and 80’s before he went north to ride for George Moore at Middleham and never came back to his native Surrey. Amazingly, he has been training since 1990 and this year equalled his previous best flat-race tally of 19, set in 2015, when Carnival Zain won for the fifth time on August 26.

For the next three months, while this hard-working dual-purpose handler continued to send in winners over jumps, the wish to set a flat-race personal best looked, like Becky’s twin challenges, likely to be frustrated.

Yesterday, having spoken to the horse’s owner, Hammond decided to send Myboymax down to Wolverhampton, a track where he has had amazing success. Myboymax, according to the trainer, “had no chance”, and he added, “the owner hoped he might beat one”.

While favourite Lady Percival, attempting a third consecutive course and distance win in a row, set the pace, Aiden Brookes sat last but in touch off an even gallop. Turning for home it was clear that two were going better than the leader as first Alan King’s Thunder Ahead and then Myboymax went past, the latter staying on the better at 66/1.

That was by no means the only big-priced winner for this under-rated handler, whose 2022 prizemoney tally of £189k is more than £50,000 above his previous best set in that vintage 2015 season.

What is uncanny is that, while there have been 27 jumps winners this season, the prizemoney earned differs by less than £1,000 at £188k in that discipline. That is sure to increase a good deal in money and numbers and he is within only six of matching last season’s win figure. In 2022, adding the 19 jumps wins from the turn of the year to the end of last season on April 23, to the 27 and 20 flat, his calendar tally is 66 wins.

Hammond has few major owners, dealing mainly with locals and partnerships. There is a small involvement with Middleham Park Racing, but ironically it was from that ownership when trained by Richard Hannon, that Myboymax was bought for just £800 at Doncaster sales on October 22, two years ago.

Since then, the Myboycharlie gelding has run 22 times for five wins, five second places and six thirds, earning around £30k. It’s not easy at bargain-basement level, but Myboymax has done far more than anyone was entitled to expect. That’s the measure of Micky Hammond.

**

The big news of the weekend was, of course, the revelation that Frankie Dettori would restrict himself to one more year of money-spinning riding before retiring after the 2023 Breeders’ Cup.

There is no question he has been the supreme big-race rider of his generation, neatly taking over as Lester Piggott left the scene. The torrent of knowledgeable trainers who have signalled his imminent retirement with accolades of the highest respect and indeed affection are a true indication of his uniqueness.

Sometimes you don’t know what you’ve lost until it’s gone. In some ways that was true of Lester. In the case of Dettori, there is no fear of that.

In a way it’s hard to know what to expect from the middle age portion of his life. Will he bother with racing as, say, an agent to owners? Many would queue up to be seen with him. Will it be enough? Then there is his own big family and the children to guide through the teens and 20’s.

So many of the brilliant rides and incredible horses will always be there to see repeatedly, with no doubt the two Racing television channels battling over the next week – if racing continues to be as bleak – to out-cover each other with highlights of his career.

For me, I just need to open my cabinet and remember the time in 1996 when we collaborated on a book, “A year in the life of Frankie Dettori”. It was already in type and about to go out to publishers when September 28 happened. Seven wins out of seven at Ascot and we had had to find a way to include it in the chronicle of his year.

In those days everything had to be put into metal type on linotype machines, so anything you wanted to add, had to be as done as a prefix or suffix. The former solution was agreed with literary agent, Christopher Little – sadly no longer with us and the man in the same role in the Harry Potter books – and Peter Burrell, Frankie’s commercial manager who still holds that position a quarter-century on.

For me it’s enough to look at the front cover and the beaming smile that has become renowned around the world over the decades. Apart from the title, there’s a single quote lifted from the Daily Telegraph – I would guess from the pen of the late John Oaksey.

It says: “Frankie Dettori possesses the looks of an innocent choir-boy, the lifestyle of a loveable rogue, the dress style befitting a Milanese millionaire and the riding skill of Wild Bill Hickock.  What more needs to be said about this singular genius?”

  • TS

Trainer Profiles: Willie Mullins

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We head to Ireland for the next trainer profile and a certain Mr William Peter Mullins. In this article I will be analysing nearly 10 years of racing data from 1st January 2013 to 31st October 2022, the majority of which can be sourced by members using the Geegeez Query Tool. All profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price but where appropriate I will share Betfair SP data. As we know most punters avoid old style SP betting as it tends to impinge heavily on potential profits, favouring instead early prices, best odds guaranteed or exchange prices.

The main body of this piece will drill down into Mullins' record when running horses in Ireland. However, at the end of the article I will examine his UK dataset as he does send a fair number of runners across the sea, usually for the big festivals such as Cheltenham.

Willie Mullins Brief Bio

Mullins was born in 1956 and he began training in 1988. He served his apprenticeship as assistant to his father Paddy and also worked with Jim Bolger. He is the most successful trainer in terms of wins at the Cheltenham festival, with 88, and in the last ten seasons has saddled over 570 winners in Graded contests (484 in Ireland, 90 in the UK). He will surely go down as one of the greatest trainers of all time.

 

Willie Mullins: Irish racing

Let’s look at several different sets of data from Irish racing starting with a yearly breakdown:

Willie Mullins Record by Year

Below is a table showing Willie Mullins' record by year in Irish races, the most recent ( and incomplete) year first.

 

 

Every year his win strike rate has exceeded 20% (1 win in every 5 runs) and in eight of the ten years it has exceeded 25%. In Ireland, his overall win strike rate over the 10-year period stands at 28.15%; the each way SR at 50.18%. Breaking down into five-year batches we get the following splits:

 

 

As we can see, the performance in the last five years has dipped a little. It is still extremely good, but there is a clear drop off. I suspect the main reasons for this dip are i) on 28th September 2016 Mullins relationship with the Gigginstown House Stud ended, and ii) in recent years, Henry de Bromhead and Joseph O'Brien have emerged as serious trainers, as well of course as Gordon Elliott. The Gigginstown relationship has been rekindled, literally a couple of months ago, but it is too soon to say what affect that might have this time around.

When looking at Mullins' 10-year Irish results as a whole one would have lost roughly 11p in the £ to Industry SP. However, using BSP would have broken even, which is on the one hand surprising, but from a punter perspective rather eye-catching.

Time to dig a bit deeper.

 

Willie Mullins Performance by Race Distance

In previous articles, we have seen that some trainers do perform better at certain race distances. Let’s take a look at the stats for Mullins:

 

 

There seems to be a distance bias here with a clear drop off when horses are saddled over 3 miles or more. Win and placed (each way) percentages also correlate strongly with the win strike rates:

 

 

In general, it looks best perhaps to steer clear of the longer distance races. In terms of races of 2m1f or less here are the results in terms of race type:

 

 

There is not too much in it with chases arguably marginally best overall.

 

Willie Mullins Performance in NH Race Types

Having just looked at race types at 2m1f or less – it makes sense to look at race types in more detail. Here are the win and each way percentages across the three main race types (I have ignored hunter chases as he had just 28 runners in total in these races):

 

 

National Hunt Flat races have been best while hurdle and chase data match closely. Losses to SP across hurdle races (11.8%) and chases (13.6%) have also been similar. National Hunt Flat races have lost 6.5% which is the best of the three. Indeed, to BSP this would have snuck into profit by 2.7% or 2.7p in the £.

 

Willie Mullins Performance in National Hunt Flat races

It makes sense to dive in to these 'bumper' races in an attempt to find the most positive angles. With that in mind, here are the strongest stats I could find for these races:

  1. Last time out winners have an excellent record, winning 73 races from 175 qualifiers (SR 41.7%) for a profit to SP of £25.60 (ROI +14.6%); to BSP this increases to +£68.67 (ROI +39.2%);
  1. Grade 1 and Grade 2 contests have seen an overall profit thanks to 13 wins from 56 (SR 23.2%) for a profit to SP of £41.59 (ROI +74.3%). To BSP profits edge up to £59.45 (ROI +106.2%). It should be mentioned that Mullins often runs multiple runners in such events;
  1. There are six courses where the win strike rate has exceeded 40% (minimum 25 runs). They are Kilbeggan, Naas, Tipperary, Tramore, Clonmel and Sligo. (Clonmel and Sligo have actually exceeded 50%);
  1. Horses making their career debut have won just over 39% of the time from 419 runners, producing a small 2.7p in the £ return to SP (9.5p to BSP).

 

Willie Mullins Performance in handicaps / non handicaps

Onto handicaps versus non-handicaps next.

There is a huge difference in strike rate for Mullins when we come to compare handicap with non-handicap races. The graph below illustrates this:

 

 

Indeed, the win percentage for non-handicap runners is actually higher than the each way percentage for handicap runners. And this is not just about strike rates, but returns on investment, too. The data correlate when we examine percentage returns to SP – handicaps have lost 25p in the £, compared to just 8p in the £ for non-handicaps. For the record, losses have been much steeper in handicap chases. When we compare A/E indices we also see a big differential with non-handicaps hitting 0.95, handicaps just 0.80.

 

Willie Mullins Performance by Starting Price

Industry SP data now and here are the findings:

 

The win strike rates go down uniformly as the price bands increase – it would be extremely odd if that didn’t happen! The 2/1 to 11/4 bracket have snuck into profit amazingly; to BSP this stands at a 5p in the £ return. The best BSP profit has come from the 8/1 to 12/1 price bracket – these runners would have produced impressive returns of 24p in the £. From a negative standpoint, outsiders priced 14/1 or bigger have provided significant losses of just over 42p in the £; if using BSP this loss is cut dramatically but still stands at 12p in the £.

Despite the positivity of the 8/1 to 12/1 performance, there are no guarantees that this price bracket will continue to produce BSP profits over time. Personally I would suggest punters focus more often on the front end of the market – prices up to and including 11/4. This looks a safer option to me.

 

Willie Mullins Performance by Course

I shared a small amount of course data earlier, but I now want to dig a little deeper. First a look at his A/E indices across all courses where he has saddled at least 100 runners:

 

 

Five courses are above the magic 1.00 figure namely Tipperary, Tramore, Clonmel, Gowran Park and Wexford. The figures are more modest at Fairyhouse, Killarney, Ballinrobe and Navan, while Downpatrick’s A/E score is very poor.

Let’s look at Tipperary, Tramore, Clonmel, Gowran Park and Wexford in more detail – here is a comparison of their win SR%s amd A/E indices in hurdles, chases and NH Flat races:

 

 

All hurdle and chase A/E indices hit 1 or higher at this quintet of courses, which is impressive; three of the five NH Flat figures are also high. Only Gowran Park in NH Flat races has a poor figure.

Backing every single runner blind at all five courses would have nudged you just into profit to SP, with returns of around 11p in the £ using BSP. In general you should certainly make a note of any horses Mullins sends to one of these five courses. These runners are worth a second glance for sure.

 

Willie Mullins Performance by Running Style

To begin with let us see the proportion of his runners that fit a specific running style. Geegeez breaks these running styles into four groups:

Led – front runners; horse or horses that take an early lead; Prominent – horses that track the pace close behind the leader(s); Mid Division – horses that race mid pack; Held Up – horses that race at, or near the back of the field early.

Here are the splits for Mullins:

 

In terms of front runners / early leaders, Mullins sends a high proportion of his runners to the front – the average front running figure is about 10% for all Irish trainers, while Mullins is more than double that at 21.44%. Further, prominent runners have accounted for 40% of all runners from the stable. In Irish racing prominent runners account for around 30% of all runners, hence Mullins seems to have an appreciation that being up with or close to the pace early is important.

From here, let us see the win success rate of each running style:

 

 

We have seen this run style pattern in each article in this series so far - horses that go to the front and lead early (L) win a far bigger proportion of their races compared to the other run styles. Front runners from the Mullins stable are edging towards winning 45% of the time which is incredibly high. Prominent racers also do well, hitting close to one win in every three races; but horses that raced mid-pack or at the back have relatively poor records scoring around one in every six.

I want to look at favourites now and see their success rate in terms of run style:

 

 

There is a very strong win percentage for front running favourites (over 60% win success) and prominent favourites are also close to the 50% mark. After that, we see a clear drop when looking at midfield and held up horses that started favourite. Hence a front running or prominent racing favourite for Mullins is a potent combination.

Now, of course, we know that predicting a front runner is not an exact science, but let us imagine you had been able to see into the future as regards to Mullins’ runners – here are some angles that would have produced decent returns:

  1. Backing all of his front runners would have yielded a profit to SP of £181.30 which equates to a return of just over 13p in the £;
  1. Backing all front-running favourites would have seen similar returns of 10.5 pence in the £;
  1. Backing all female horses that took the early lead would have produced a strike rate of 48.9% for a profit of £88.03. Impressive returns of 28.7p in the £ here;
  1. Front runners in chases would have secured you returns of over 23p for every £1 bet.

These returns are all calculated to Industry SP; on average you could add another 5 to 10p in the £ if betting to BSP or taking BOG.

 

Willie Mullins Performance by Jockey

Onto some jockey analysis now and, specifically, a look at any jockey who has ridden at least 75 times for Mullins since 2013, with the proviso that they have had at least one ride for the stable in 2022. I have ordered them by number of rides starting with the most:

 

Paul Townend and (Mr P W) Patrick Mullins have excellent strike rates in excess of 30%; both have shown a small profit if backing all runners to BSP. Jody Townend has an excellent record also, and these three jockeys look the ones to concentrate most on.

 

Willie Mullins Performance by Headgear

This is an area that I have not looked at with other trainers, but the stats for Mullins are worth sharing. So no headgear versus headgear looks like this:

 

 

There is a significant drop in performance with horses that had donned any kind of headgear. Mullins uses a tongue tie or a hood far more than any other type of headgear. He rarely uses blinkers (just 47 times in 10 years). Hence I would not be too keen to see any sort of headgear on a Mullins runner I wanted to back.

And that brings the curtain down on the Irish side of his record; but let’s now take a look at Mullins' UK data:

 

Willie Mullins: UK racing

Below is Mullins' overall record in the UK over the past ten years:

 

Here we see a much lower strike rate, which is to be expected as Mullins tends to send runners to the big meetings and festivals where the racing is hugely competitive. Indeed, 71% of his UK runners have been at Cheltenham and, of these, 96% ran at the Cheltenham festival.

 

Willie Mullins Performance by Headgear

The headgear stats are worth sharing again because we see a clear difference:

 

 

As before it looks best to steer clear of horses that wear any sort of headgear.

Let's focus exclusively on Cheltenham Festival stats now.

 

Willie Mullins Performance at Cheltenham Festival

I mentioned earlier that Mullins is the leading trainer in the history of the Cheltenham Festival in terms of wins (88); 64 of those have occurred in the past ten years. He has been leading trainer at the meeting in eight of the last ten years also, only missing out in 2015 and 2016, and he has had at least four winners in each of the last ten years as the graph below shows:

 

 

His overall win strike rate in the last ten years stands at just above 12% and backing all of his runners would have secured a small 4p in the £ profit to BSP. 33 of his 87 favourites have won and they have just nudged into BSP profit also.

It is not easy to decide upon which Mullins runners to back here as he often has more than one runner in a race. Probably the one thing I’d look out for is any last time out winners of his – these have won 21% of the time, and in 7 of the 10 years they would have secured you not only a BSP profit but an Industry SP profit also.

For the record, away from the festival, Mullins has had 32 runners at Cheltenham at other times of the year, but only four have won.

 

Willie Mullins Performance at other courses

A look now at courses other than Cheltenham – Mullins' combined UK results are as follows:

 

That's a slightly better than 1 in 5 strike rate. Betting to BSP improve the -11% ROI but only to a negative return of 4p in the £.

Here is a course breakdown – courses with 15 or more runners qualify:

 

The majority of the Aintree runners were at the Grand National meeting, 14 of the 16 winners having come during the ten years of that meeting. Profits were secured at Sandown and Kempton, albeit from very small samples. I'm not sure why the Newbury figures are so bad; again, though, it is a relatively small sample.

Before I look at the main takeaways from this article, here is a selection of UK stats for Mullins (all courses):

  1. Female runners have won 23.5% of their races, male runners 12.9%;
  1. Just one winner from 113 runners has been from horses priced 33/1 or bigger (for the record nine placed);
  1. Paul Townend has a strike rate of just over 18% and has edged into a small profit of 6p in the £ to SP (15p in the £ to BSP);
  1. Front runners have won 32% of their races, hold up horses just 10%;
  1. His record in Grade 3 UK races is surprisingly poor with just 8 wins from 185 races – this equates to a strike rate of just 4.3%.

 

Main Takeaways (IRISH RACING)

  1. In terms of distance, races of 2m1f or less have been the most productive. Races of 3 miles or more have a relatively poor record in comparison;
  1. There has been similar success in hurdle races and chases; a slightly higher strike rate has occurred in National Hunt Flat races;
  1. In National Hunt Flat races last time out winners are worth close scrutiny as are any runners contesting a Grade 1 or 2 contest;
  1. Non-handicap performance is far superior to handicap performance. The record in handicap chases especially is relatively poor;
  1. Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have made significant losses even to BSP;
  1. Tipperary, Tramore, Clonmel, Gowran Park and Wexford have arguably the strongest course stats from a positive perspective;
  1. Front runners from the stable have a very good record;
  1. Jockeys Paul Townend, Patrick Mullins and Jody Townend are three to concentrate on;
  1. Horses wearing headgear have a poor record, especially when comparing them to horses that wear no headgear.

 

Main Takeaways (UK RACING)

  1. At the Cheltenham Festival, last time out winners have a strong record;
  2. As with the Irish stats, horses wearing headgear have a weak record and look worth swerving;
  3. Female runners do well across the UK courses;
  4. Front runners once again have a good record scoring roughly once in every three runs;
  5. Outsiders (33/1 or bigger) have a poor record;
  6. Paul Townend is the best jockey to follow.

-----

That concludes this trainer profile article. Willie Mullins is a serial winner and hopefully the key stats highlighted in this piece will help us to profit in the long term from his runners.

- DR

Roving Reports: Silver or Gold at Newbury?

/in /by

The light is just breaking through as I leave the house to get my lift for Newbury's two-day meeting, the highlight of which is the Coral Gold Cup, which has had a promotion, having formerly been the Ladbrokes Silver Trophy, writes David Massey. I'm being picked up at a local tennis club, where unsurprisingly, no-one is having a knock-up at 8am.

We are going very early as, being a Friday morning, there's a good chance we'll encounter motorway traffic. Needless to say we sail down without so much as a "queue ahead" sign and arrive considerably earlier than we planned. I could have had another hour in bed.

Newbury is an easy track to hump the gear on, as they let you park right next to the ring to unpack it all, and then it's a short pull to the ring itself. The joint set up, there's plenty of time for tea and a chat with a few of the other books.

The general consensus seems to be the train strikes, due Saturday, won't affect business that much. We will see. Chat turns to the World Cup, and Martyn Of Leicester reveals he's had a decent bet on Iran to beat the Welsh. It's currently 0-0, but the roar goes up late in the match and he's off and running even before we've had a race. Money without work, indeed.

I'm working on the rails for the next couple of days and the first, and welcome, surprise is that all the rails joints have been cleaned. One of a bookmaker's expenses is paying for a rails/ring joint, if they hire one, and of course you've no choice if you're on the rails. However, the rails joints are often wet, or dirty, or both, and using them can be unpleasant. Not today though, they're in pristine condition. I hide my lunch in the hod.

We get betting an hour before the first, and needless to say, it's quiet. There's time to fetch more tea, although the day isn't cold. Far from it; in fact, the sun is out and actually providing some warmth. It's evens each of two my coat coming off before the first. Unheard of in late November, but we are where we are.

Finally some punters arrive. One thing about Newbury is the bet size is generally bigger here than at other tracks. Most punters have a tenner or a twenty on, even those that are fairly novice and just here for a day out. There's nobody wanting to back the odds-on favourite, Jet Powered, but we take plenty of each-way money for both Fuji Rocks and West Park Boy. That all stays with us as Half Dozen rolls in for third.

Frere D'Armes is a decent result in the second and we're off to a good start. Sadly, a fair chunk is given back by the books on Stay Away Fay, who looks beat at one point but as Russian Ruler hits the wall late, comes through to win.

A little known fact is that the only men you'll find in the toilets whilst the race is on are bookmakers and their workers. For most of us, it's the only chance we get if we need to relieve ourselves of the morning mugs of tea. There will be the usual chat about how it's all going, whether you're winning or losing, that sort of thing. The talk is of whether we can get Stage Star beat at prohibitive odds; it turns out we can.

One woman has had not one, but two, £10 bets on Sebastopol at 20-1 and is delighted to pick up her £420. She's done a lot better than her mate, who had a fiver on Stage Star, and now regrets not taking her friend's advice.

We also cop the lot on the forecast. When there's not many runners we can get the forecast on the board too, and Newbury is a place where punters do like having a forecast bet. More so than anywhere else, in my opinion. No idea why.

Having praised the track faithful for their general bet size, there's no big money around at all today, and the biggest bet I take is on the Long Distance Hurdle, a £200 wager on Champ, which never looks like getting beaten despite the fact it's only a neck at the line.

We get a result in the last, and with our digs for the night only ten minutes away, I'm in the shower by half four and having a nap fifteen minutes later. Lovely. Later, we find a pub to watch the first half of the England game, and it's so dull I'm thinking of starting a Mexican wave. There's a poster on the wall telling patrons that drug taking on the premises will not be tolerated, but I'm pretty sure the bloke in front of me has the jazz fags out. Food, and time for bed.

Saturday, and we're up and running an hour before the first. These early starts are not good for betting purposes; whereas a 2pm start in the summer means you've people around having a drink and a bet, in winter a 12.15 start means people just stay inside keeping warm until midday.

The no-sock brigade are still around but, much like Covid, not in the same numbers as two years ago. Perhaps, after months of wrecking their feet and having them stinking like squashed skunks, they've all realised that covering them up is the future. I bet their chiropodist bills were through the roof.

Anyway, I digress. Luccia gets the favourite backers off to a good start, despite a late drift, and one punter who has had £300 on with us at 6-5 has the lot back on Thyme Hill. That stays in the hod, as does all the Saturday money on Mortlach, for whom all the fivers and tenners are, forcing his price down from 16s to 9s at the off. If that had been a midweek race we wouldn't have taken a penny for Mortlach, but the out-for-the-weekend punters ensure he's well backed on days like this.

Zanza is a shocking result for most of the books, but they get it back with interest on Red Risk who, at 20-1, goes almost unbacked with us. I say almost - we've 2 x £10 bets to pay out, one from a woman who, she tells me, backs everything with "red" in the name. I'm doing it wrong, clearly; I give her a free pen for the advice.

Constitution Hill is winning the Fighting Fifth on the big screen. Round the back, by the paddock, Nicky is getting a round of applause and tips his hat, which looks like it's come direct from Vladivostok, to the crowd. Around the front, it barely creates a ripple.

First Street isn't actually a bad result for us as they all want Teddy Blue, who can manage no better than third. Then the big race, and I'm expecting big queues. They don't materialise. Trade on the not-the-Hennessy is 50% down on what it was last year. As it was earlier in the year at York, the train strikes have really had an effect on turnover.

The last bet I take is a debit card bet from a lad rushing up on the off to have £100 on Le Milos at 9-2. He's the first in the payout queue though. I've a monkey ready bundled up and give him that, and as I get his other £50 ready, he walks off waving the money at his mates. "Oi!", I shout after him, holding his other fifty quid, "is this my Christmas tip?"

His mates are rightly laughing at him. It's a good job I'm honest. Sheepishly he makes his way back through the crowd for his bullseye.

And, of course, as it should be, Amarillo Sky sends the punters home happy as a well-backed 11-8 jolly in the last. It's starting to rain, and it's almost dark. Time to go home, I reckon...

- DM

Monday Musings: Weather and a Two Mile Monopoly?

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Cork managed to race yesterday as indeed, rather more surprisingly, did Southwell, but when we will get some more jumping – in the UK at any rate – is possibly more open to question, writes Tony Stafford.

Today’s two cards have already gone and the Arena Racing Company, which runs Southwell, can giveth with one hand and taketh away with another. Both Lingfield, with an additional, and Wolverhampton, with a scheduled evening card are in the Arena stable.

I was at Chelmsford City briefly the other evening and Neil Graham, their ever-present boss, was anticipating his track might be in line for some of the more 48-hour emergency meetings that trigger when jumps cards are in the process of being lost.

He said that he hadn’t been lucky in the ballot yet, unlike all the others, but reasoned Chelmsford’s turn might be near. “Those tracks that already have been lucky, cannot reapply for ten <or did he say 14?> days”. Chelmsford race on Thursday, so that must be a pre-programmed date.

Fixtures are power in racing. No wonder Southwell battled so hard to keep their fixture alive, employing frost covers and delaying the morning inspection to 9.30 a.m. in the hope that any morning warming after a freezing night, will have had maximum effect. Watching the racing, everything looked fine. Well done, Arena, and Ben Pauling who had a nice double on the card.

Sometimes we try to make bricks where there is no straw. If you will excuse me for once, I’m a little under the weather – that sort of annoying cold that provides alternate nostril routes for moisture to trickle down the face at most inopportune times. As a result, this will be a case of short-changing the readers and hopefully the editor will take a charitable view.

Energumene took the opportunity to return to action at Cork in the Bar One Racing Hilly Way Chase. The best two-mile chaser – possibly for all this millennium [with apologies to Moscow Flyer, Master Minded, Sprinter Sacre and Altior – Ed.] – had to concede 10lb to the two horses that finished immediately (but miles) behind him while the second favourite, Master McShee, who was off level weights, finished a long last having badly burst blood vessels.

Prize money was a sliding €59k, €19k, €9k with €4k for the hapless invalid. Willie Mullins often provides multiple entries in Champion Hurdle eliminators through the year, but he refrained from doing so here. The Henry De Bromhead-trained and Rachael Blackmore-ridden Epson Du Houx was the beneficiary of Master McShee’s misfortune, not that trainer – or owner Gigginstown House Stud – needs a hand-out, 15 lengths back in a welcome back exhibition.

It is hard to see from where serious competition will come for Energumene in the immediate future, save of course Edwardstone, who stated his case for the Queen Mother Champion Chase with that superb effort at Sandown in the Tingle Creek Chase last weekend. That put paid to Greanateen and Shishkin, for the time being at least. But Energumene, like stablemate Facile Vega in the Supreme Novice Hurdle, has built an air of invincibility that makes quotes of even money for next March look value indeed.

Events on the flat continue apace overseas and Ryan Moore had another inflation-busting pick up in one of the races on Hong Kong’s biggest days at Sha Tin yesterday. Riding the six-year-old Wellington for Hong Kong-based English trainer Richard Gibson, Moore added this near £1.3 million first prize to the Japan Cup a fortnight earlier, and again with a weaving through the field ride.

In Tokyo, there was a mile-and-a-half to make his run with Vela Azul on their way to collecting that £2.6 million. It still took a gen of the rarest kind to manage it. Here it was just six furlongs but still Ryan, in my estimation riding at his best since before the serious injury a few years back which he was understandably not keen to draw attention to, was sublime.

He gave Wellington time to find his stride, brought him steadily through to challenge just before the last half-furlong and the prize was his. You can just imagine him licking his lips at some of the Middle Eastern riches that he hasn’t always been in line to challenge for. I bet William Buick and the other Dubai Carnival regulars wouldn’t mind if he kept clear of Riyadh and Meydan next month and onwards.

  • TS

Trainer Profiles: Venetia Williams, Lucinda Russell, Emma Lavelle

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For my third National Hunt trainer piece I want to drill down into three of the most successful females currently training, namely Venetia Williams, Lucinda Russell and Emma Lavelle. I will be examining nearly ten years of UK racing data from 1st January 2013 to 31st October 2022. I have used the Geegeez Query Tool to source around 90% of the stats shared in this piece. All profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price, which the Query Tool uses, but I will quote Betfair SP returns as and when appropriate.

Brief Biographies

Venetia Williams took up her license in 1995. She became only the second female to train the winner of the Grand National when Mon Mome scored at 100/1 in 2009. Venetia is still going strong and this year had two winners at the Cheltenham Festival in the Broadway Novices' Chase and the Kim Muir Handicap Chase.

Lucinda Russell trains in Scotland and has a career tally of over 800 winners and, like Williams, she has been successful in the Grand National, winning that flagship race in 2017 with One For Arthur. The Aintree Festival has been a happy hunting ground in the last two years also, with Ahoy Senor winning the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle in 2021 and the Mildmay Novices’ Chase in 2022.

Emma Lavelle trains near Marlborough in Wiltshire and has produced consistent results year in, year out. Her stable star Paisley Park has won 10 of his 23 starts including three Grade 1 successes and four at Grade 2 level. He is one of three Cheltenham Festival winners trained by Lavelle.

 

Overall Records

First off, let's compare their respective records by year in terms of strike rate:

 

 

As we can see Venetia Williams tends to come out on top from a wins to runs ration perspective each year – she has outperformed the other two in seven of the ten years. Russell tends to have the lowest yearly strike rate figure – this has occurred in eight of the ten years. As can be seen from the graph, each trainer has occasional ups and downs, and this is to be expected. The table below shows the exact yearly strike rates as well as the A/E indices for each year:

 

 

Venetia Williams has generally been on the ‘up’ in the last four seasons with very decent strike rates in 2019, 2021 and 2022 and good correlation from the A/E indices.

OK it’s time to dig a bit deeper now, starting with Lucinda Russell.

Lucinda Russell Trainer Profile

Lucinda Russell Performance in NH Race types

By race type here are the splits:

 

Chase results have clearly been the best from a win perspective; meanwhile, National Hunt Flat races have been a bit of a struggle. It is interesting to note, however, that each way performance (win & placed) has less than a 3% differential between the chase figure (30.4%) and the NH Flat figure (27.6%).

Digging deeper when looking at race type, here are the most useful angles (both positive and negative), from a potential future betting perspective:

  1. Russell has a very good record when sending chasers to Hexham. Of her 230 runners at the Borders track, 46 have won (20%) showing a profit to SP of £68.82 (ROI +29.9%). To BSP the profits increase markedly to £133.87 (ROI +57.7%). The figures are skewed somewhat by a winner whose SP was 40/1 (BSP 79.92), but having said that, Russell has produced profits to SP in seven of the ten years which is impressive
  1. Horses racing in a chase who won LTO are worth avoiding. They would have lost you a whopping 48p in the £ to SP (40p in the £ to BSP)
  1. Favourites in chases have broken even to BSP. Focusing on clear favourites only (not joint favs) would have seen a small 8p in the £ return
  1. Lucinda Russell is not generally one for big-priced winners in handicap hurdles. Horses priced 22/1 or bigger have won just once from 212 runners

 

Lucinda Russell Performance by Race Distance

Race distance breakdown next:

 

 

Looking at the strike rate, returns, A/E indices and Impact Values there is a correlation showing an improvement as the distance range increases. Indeed, backing all her runners to BSP at 3 miles or more would have seen a break even scenario.

Lucinda Russell Performance by Starting Price

Let’s examine starting price now using Industry SP prices. Firstly win strike rates:

 

 

As is usually the case, the win strike rates go down as the price bands increase. Odds on shots have fared well from a limited sample, but the Evens to 15/8 bracket have under-performed. When we look at NH trainers as a whole, the win percentage for horses priced Evens to 15/8 stands at over 38%; an absolute difference of 5% for this price bracket - 14% in relative terms - is huge. Russell also under-performs by over 3% (15% relatively) with horses priced 2/1 to 11/4, and by 2.5% (14% relatively) in the 3/1 to 9/2 price bracket. Hence her A/E indices in these three price brackets are lower than one would expect:

 

 

It can be said that there has been little value in backing Lucinda Russell runners priced between Evens and 9/2. Knowing this, when we see a Russell runner within this price range, there could be value elsewhere in that particular race.

Lucinda Russell Performance by Course

The Russell stable focus the majority of their attention on just nine courses – Ayr, Carlisle, Haydock, Hexham, Kelso, Musselburgh, Newcastle, Perth and Wetherby. 90% of their total runs have been at these courses, so we have good data sets to examine. Below is a graph comparing chase and hurdle win strike rates.

 

 

With better overall chase strike rates, I guess these stats should come as no surprise (chase fields tend to be smaller than hurdle fields, which is an important factor, but not one that fully accounts for these differentials). Only Haydock has seen Russell hurdlers win more often than chasers in percentage terms. Haydock hurdlers from the stable have made a blind profit both to SP and BSP.

We noted the excellent record at Hexham in chases earlier, and it turns out to be the only course that has proved to be profitable backing all runners in all chases. From a negative perspective, Carlisle has not been a happy hunting ground.

Lucinda Russell Performance by Running Style

A look at run style next. To begin with let us see the proportion of runners that fit a specific run style. As you'll probably be familiar with by now, geegeez.co.uk breaks run style into four categories:

Led – front runners; horse or horses that take an early lead; Prominent – horses that track the pace close behind the leader(s); Mid Division – horses that race mid pack; Held Up – horses that race at, or near the back of the field early.

In terms of run style, 18% of Russell’s runners have led early, 29% have taken up prominent positions while the remaining 53% have raced mid division or been held up near the back. Let's examine the success rate of each run style group in terms of win percentage:

 

 

Regular readers will not be surprised by this graph: early leaders / front runners have been the most successful group for Russell winning roughly one in every six, whereas hold up horses have been less successful winning around once in every 14 starts.

Looking at Lucinda's front running stats in more detail, it is interesting to note that her record improves as the distance increases:

 

 

Front runners / early leaders at distances of 3m+ have been clearly the best performers. Of course, the profits shown in the table are assuming you’d predicted every single front running horse before the race – clearly this is not possible, but it shows the potential value in the yard's front running stayers.

Lucinda Russell Performance by Jockey

Russell currently has two primary jockeys she uses – Derek Fox and Stephen Mulqueen. In 2022, Fox has ridden just over half of all her runners, Mulqueen around a quarter. Here are their overall records going back to 2013:

 

 

Fox has the better record of the two both from a strike rate and a returns perspective. Indeed, if betting to BSP the Russell / Fox combination would have yielded a profit of £130.99 (ROI +11.0%). That said, the profit has essentially been down to one 120.09 BSP winner at Aintree last year.

If we examine results for this combination nearer the front end of the market they have actually performed well. Focusing solely on horses from the top four in the betting, Fox has ridden 103 winners from 572 runners (SR 18.0%) losing around 7p in the £ to SP; to BSP that loss would have been turned into a 7p in the £ profit.

The ‘top takeaways’ for Lucinda Russell will be collated at the end of this article, along with those from the other two trainers.

Time now to examine the stats for our next eminent female tranier, Emma Lavelle.

 

Emma Lavelle Trainer Profile

Emma Lavelle Performance in NH Race types

Race type is the first port of call once more:

 

 

We can see almost identical strike rates in chases and hurdles, with ROI figures also similar. National Hunt Flat races have made a profit but a 66/1 winner has skewed the figures somewhat. Even without that bomb, she'd have almost broken even at SP.

Emma Lavelle Performance in Chases

Let's look at some of the strongest stats (both positive and negative) specifically for chase races:

  1. Younger chasers completely outperform older chasers as this table clearly shows:

 

Five- to seven-year-olds do best and backing all of them blind would have broken even to BSP. 8yos have performed reasonably, but once we get to nine or older performance is poor with just 14 successes from 242 runners (SR 5.8%);

  1. Class 1 and 2 chases have been a struggle – just 18 wins from 234 runners (SR 7.7%). Losses to SP stand at £90.92 (ROI -38.9%). Losses to BSP have been around the 30% mark;
  1. Worcester has been a happy hunting ground in chases with 12 wins from 44 (SR 27.3%). Profits to SP stand at £30.87 (ROI +70.2%); to BSP this edges up to £47.08 (ROI +107%);
  1. Horses making their chase debut have won just over 23% of the time breaking even to SP (+6p in the £ to Betfair).

 

In terms of hurdle races – the strongest stat has been when focusing on shorter distances. Hurdle races of 2m1f or less have provided 39 winners from 182 (SR 21.4%) for a small SP profit of £9.86 (ROI +5.4%). To BSP this increases to +£44.17 (ROI +24.3%).

Having ended this section looking at race distance let us next look at the distance stats across all race types.

Emma Lavelle Performance by Race Distance

Here are the splits:

 

We can see that as the distance increases the performance seems to dip a little. Chases at 2m1f or less, like the hurdle races, hit a win SR% of over 20%. It is National Hunt Flat races that bring the overall win strike rate down for shorter distances. In terms of 3m+ both chases and hurdles hit the 12% mark – chases at 12% exactly, hurdles 12.2%.

Emma Lavelle Performance by Starting Price

Market data is next on the agenda – a look at win strike rate first:

 

These are better figures overall when compared to Lucinda Russell, especially in the 2/1 to 11/4 and 3/1 to 9/2 brackets. Unsurprisingly, the A/E indices look much healthier overall too:

 

 

If you had backed all Emma Lavelle runners priced 9/2 or shorter you would have won 27% of the time losing just 3p in the £ to SP. To BSP this edges to a positive return of nearly 5p in the £. It seems therefore a good tactic to focus on the better fancied runners from the stable.

Emma Lavelle Performance by Course

We noted earlier that Worcester + chases has been a good combination. Let us look at the win strike rates in all races across courses where Lavelle has saddled at least 50 runners:

 

 

There is a big variation from track to track – the premier tracks at Newbury, Ascot and Cheltenham have three of the lowest four strike rates. Combining these courses has produced just 19 wins from 272 runners (SR 7.0%) equating to losses of 62p in the £ to SP. To BSP these losses are still steep at 57p in the £. Some of the most competitive NH racing is seen at these courses and swerving Lavelle runners at all three of these would seem to be a sensible move by and large.

There are much better results from courses such as Newton Abbot, Doncaster, Stratford and Worcester – the yard has hit 20% or better at all four of these. Indeed focusing on these courses and sticking to runners priced 9/2 or shorter we see some excellent results:

 

 

All the profits shown are to Industry SP; to BSP returns have been around 10p in the £ higher. These seem to be four courses to look out for when Lavelle sends a runner there especially if the horse is fancied.

Emma Lavelle Performance by Running Style

In terms of run style 15% of Lavelle’s runners have led early, 35% have taken up prominent positions while the remaining 50% have raced mid division or been held up near the back. Here are the success rates of each run style group in terms of win percentage:

 

 

It's the same old pattern we see time and time again – front runners / early leaders are by far the most successful winning close to one in every four, followed by prominent runners. Horses racing further back early (mid div / at the back) have won roughly just one in every ten starts.

Sticking with Lavelle front runners, these have excelled in hurdle races, winning 30% of the time; chase front runners have won just under 21% of the time. This is unusual as front runners in chases have a higher strike rate than front runners in hurdle races when considering all trainer data as a whole.

Emma Lavelle Performance by Jockey

Lavelle currently employs three main jockeys – Tom Bellamy, Adam Wedge and Ben Jones. All three have had 100+ runners for Lavelle since 2013 and their overall records are shown below:

 

 

All three have strike rates in excess of Lavelle’s overall strike rate, which stands at 14.3%. All have decent A/E indices and two of the three have made a blind profit. It should be noted though that Bellamy has ridden over 72% of Lavelle’s runners in 2022. One additional Lavelle/Bellamy stat worth noting is that when they have teamed up on favourites they have won 21 races from 46 (SR 45.7%) for a SP profit of £6.35 (ROI +13.8%). This increases to returns of 20p in the £ to BSP.

Two trainers down, one to go – it’s Venetia Williams turn next:

Venetia Williams Trainer Profile

Venetia Williams Performance in NH Race types

We will first look at Venetia's record in different race codes:

 

Williams has a reasonable record in National Hunt Flat races from a smallish sample. In terms of chases versus hurdle races there has been a much stronger performance in chases, with losses in such races of less than 10p in the £ to SP, while to BSP this is limited to just 1p in the £. Chases provided a four percent higher strike rate to boot. These races look a good starting point for further digging.

Venetia Williams Performance in chases

Firstly let us look at Venetia's chase performance by year – for this I will compare her yearly A/E indices:

 

 

As we can see, eight of the ten years have seen A/E indices over 0.90 which shows good consistency, performance dipping below that threshold only in 2015 and 2016. In six of the ten years you would have made a BSP profit backing all Williams chasers blind.

Handicap versus non handicap chases next. Generally she has far more runners in handicap chases as this table shows:

 

 

The ROI is much better in handicaps compared to non-handicaps which is useful considering the sample sizes.

Here are some more chase facts and stats worth knowing about:

  1. Chasers priced 11/4 or shorter have provided 158 winners from 424 runners (SR 37.3%) for a profit of £13.64 (ROI +3.2%) to SP; profit to BSP of £26.11 (ROI +6.2%);
  1. Perhaps it is no surprise seeing the previous stat that chasing favourites have done well. They have won 36% of the time producing returns of 5.5p in the £ to SP, 8.8p in the £ to BSP;
  1. In terms of age, younger chasers have done better. Horses aged seven and younger have won 184 races from 881 (SR 20.9%); horses aged 8 or older have won 154 from 1193 (SR 12.9%). The younger brigade have just sneaked into BSP profit across those 881 races;
  1. Female chasers have a good record with 45 wins from 221 (SR 20.4%) showing a very small profit to both SP and BSP;
  1. Horses that won last time out do well when trying to repeat that win in a chase, with 81 wins from 352 (SR 23.0%) for a break even situation to SP; to BSP these runners would have secured a profit of £55.56 (ROI +15.8%).

 

Venetia Williams Performance by Race Distance

Here is the breakdown by race distance but this time I am splitting into chase and hurdle results as they differ somewhat:

 

 

In terms of chases, Venetia Williams has her highest strike rate in the shortest distance band, and her lowest strike rate in the longest distance band. Having said that, the A/E values are all between 0.91 and 0.97. Hurdle wise, we see similar strike rates across the board, but slightly better value it seems as race distance increases. Once again, though, it shows that chases are the races that we should probably concentrate on the most.

Venetia Williams Performance by Starting Price

Market data now and win strike rates first:

 

Williams has a surprisingly low odds on strike rate, coming in at under 49%. However, the Evens to 15/8 bracket has a high figure, as does the 2/1 to 11/4 range. Indeed, backing all Venetia's runners between Evens and 11/4 would have seen you break even to SP, and earn just under 3p in the £ to BSP.

The A/E indices now:

 

Here is confirmation of what was mentioned above, with strong A/E indices for runners sent off between Evens and 11/4. Bigger priced runners (14/1 and up) are definitely worth avoiding – they would have lost you 43p in the £ to SP; 28p in the £ to BSP.

Venetia Williams Performance by Course

On to course stats now and here are the win strike rates for all courses where Williams has saddled at least 100 runners:

 

 

If we take the highest and lowest strike rates out, the percentages across the other courses are not too dissimilar. There are five courses where the A/E index has hit 0.95 or higher; these being Hereford (1.29), Ascot (1.20), Ludlow (0.97), Haydock (0.95), and Newbury (0.95).

I would say that Williams is a trainer who seems to target the race rather than the course.

Venetia Williams Performance by Running Style

In terms of run style, 22% of Venetia runners have led early, 39% have taken up prominent positions while the remaining 39% have raced mid division or been held up near the back. I would surmise that she is more aware than Russell and Lavelle of the importance of a position at, or near, the front early in a race.

The win percentages for each run style group are shown in the graph below:

 

The pattern is what we have come to expect generally, but in percentage terms her results mirror those of Emma Lavelle almost exactly. Hold up horses and mid div runners have poor records.

If we drill into her front runners in chases her strike rate hits 26.1% and if your crystal ball for predicting front runners was in tip top condition, these runners would have returned a profit of £191.59 to £1 level stakes (ROI +41.3%) – and that was to Industry SP! To BSP add another 25p in the £ to this. Hence a Venetia Williams front runner in a chase is a potential gold mine.

Venetia Williams Performance by Jockey

Williams relies mainly on Charlie Deutsch, but both Hugh Nugent and Lucy Turner are jockeys she does use from time to time. Here are their stats:

 

 

5lb claimer Lucy Turner has performed very well and shows a fair profit. However, that surplus would be obliterated if you took out her 40/1 Cheltenham festival winner, Chambard. Deutsch starting riding for Williams in 2015 but had just 11 rides that year. Since then he has ridden 100 times or more for the stable in six of the seven years; the other year he rode 85 times. Here is a year by year breakdown of his win strike rate for the stable:

 

 

Strike rates have been fairly consistent as the graph shows. However, breaking his performance down by race type gives us some interesting results:

 

 

Results in chases have been by far the best, breaking even at SP; and, while there have been a very limited number of National Hunt Flat races, comparing chases to hurdles we see a huge difference.

Main Takeaways

Let me finish by focusing on what I think are the key stats from each of the three trainers.

Lucinda Russell Positives and Negatives

 

Emma Lavelle Positives and Negatives

 

Venetia Williams Positives and Negatives

 

And that's it for this piece: three trainers for the price of one, and bundles of key takeaways.

Next time it is the turn of the Irish and a certain Mr William Mullins.

Until then...

- DR

Monday Musings: Vindication for the Absentee Triumvirate

/in /by

The fallout from that unfortunate Ascot meeting last month continued at Sandown on Saturday when the third member of the famed Absentee Triumvirate made just as emphatic a statement as the other two had signalled a week earlier at Newcastle, writes Tony Stafford.

In all, there were 14 non-appearances that frustrating Saturday afternoon, when faster than expected going was the principal reason for the wholesale withdrawals. But, for the crowds that descended as ever at the Royal racecourse, only three really mattered.

That Constitution Hill, L’Homme Presse and Edwardstone could all stay in their boxes on one day was a kick in the teeth for racegoers. For their owners, and respective trainers Nicky Henderson, Venetia Williams and Alan King, the decision has taken only two weeks to be fully justified in each instance.

Constitution Hill, thrillingly in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle, and L’Homme Presse, grittily and with authority in the Rehearsal Chase, both at Newcastle a week after Ascot, did their bit to a nicety. Then at Sandown on Saturday, last season’s Arkle Chase winner Edwardstone contrived to give a major shake to betting on the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Festival next March.

His nine-length demolition of Paul Nicholls’ Greaneteen in the Tingle Creek Chase was only half the story. Six lengths further back was Shishkin, the one-time Great White Hope of UK jump racing and Nicky Henderson’s nominated successor to Sprinter Sacre and Altior and still highly enough regarded to start even-money in this deep Grade 1 field of top two-mile chasers.

Fourth just behind him was the Joseph O’Brien-trained Gentleman De Mee, the same J P McManus horse that had ended Edwardstone’s winning run of five at Aintree last year. (Aintree it was where L’Homme Presse’s Cheltenham-embellishing five-timer also culminated).

It wasn’t just Gentleman De Mee who got a revenge pasting. It was probably the fact that Edwardstone had been a cab-hailing 23 lengths behind Shishkin in the 2020 Supreme Novice Hurdle that first suggested to Alan King a switch to fences might be a strategic move to avoid that horse in the immediate future.

Edwardstone’s comeback run the following November brought an acceptable fifth in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle, but the initial try at chasing, the following month at Doncaster, ended in a premature conclusion when he unseated his rider at the fourth fence.

After finishing off that season with some solid runs back in handicap hurdles, King was ready for a second shot, but again there was a non-completion, at Warwick. This time, though, it was no fault of his as he was moving in the style of a possible winner when brought down four out.

Since then, Aintree in April apart, it’s been a story of onwards and upwards and, with hindsight, the only shock about Saturday’s race is that he started 5/1. Now he’s only 7/2 second favourite for the championship among two-mile chasers, that market understandably headed at 6/4 by Shishkin’s nemesis, Energumene.

That Willie Mullins champion has yet to appear this term, but we did get a first sight of the season of the Cheltenham Festival (and even more emphatic Punchestown) Bumper winner, Facile Vega. He must rank as one of the best-named animals around, as every one of the five races he has contested has been a Walk In The Park, Facile indeed. Of course, mum was Quevega, who only stopped at six Mares Hurdle wins at Cheltenham because she was feeling broody!

Facile Vega started over hurdles at Fairyhouse on Saturday and the backers who accepted 1/9 about his chance never had a moment’s doubt that they would be collecting. A Gordon Elliott sacrificial object was offered up as token opposition. An Mhi, also by Walk In The Park and half-brother to top-class Slate House, might well be all right, indeed pretty useful, but Facile Vega had 14 lengths to spare with the rest of the 16 runners trailing behind, their presence more a case of autograph hunting than competition. He looks the same at the end of his races as at the start. A true phenomenon!

https://youtu.be/Vh2sR-3ULwQ

That’s the Supreme sorted then, and you must sympathise with Gary Moore, also on the mark on Saturday with one of the best from last season’s Festival Bumper. His Authorised Speed, in finishing fifth, was first home of the UK contingent, and before Saturday had won easily first time over hurdles at Lingfield late last month.

He got some more valuable match practice to open the Sandown card and, in spite of a last-flight blunder, still had more than six lengths to spare over a well-regarded Henderson newcomer who received 5lb.

Gary never shirks a challenge and will probably still target Authorised Speed at Cheltenham, as he will Hansard. The latter, a most impressive debut winner at Huntingdon yesterday in a hot novice hurdle on his first run since being bought for £48k out of Charles O’Brien’s yard after winning a Ballinrobe bumper, has obvious potential for a constantly upwardly mobile operation.

We mentioned last week the similarity between the conundrum Henderson was placed in the future campaigning of his two smart novice hurdlers from last season and that six years previously when Altior and future dual Champion Hurdle winner Buveur D’Air needed separating. Again there was a JP issue when  Constitution Hill and Jonbon went to Cheltenham last year with mixed opinions in the yard as to which was the better. In the event, it was a no contest, Constitution Hill coming out on top by 22 lengths but with Jonbon second.

Perhaps surprisingly, that was still good enough to beat a trio of Willie Mullins challengers including the 2021 Festival bumper runner-up Kilcruit, third, and Bring On The Night fourth. Mullins might have had one in the first two though as Dysart Dynamo was going easily when falling three from home.

Henderson decided to go post-Cheltenham to Aintree with Jonbon, a mission he accomplished with a hard-fought victory, but there has been nothing hard-fought about his first two chase runs at Warwick and now Sandown on Saturday. In winning by eight lengths from Boothill, he was beating one of the beneficiaries of the Great Ascot Disappearing Act.

Harry Fry’s seven-year-old had been the recipient of the £65k first prize in the Hurst Park Handicap Chase, the race intended for Edwardstone.

Now that Aintree has separated its two previously joined at the hip big autumn handicaps over the Grand National fences, both the Grand Sefton, at the original date, and turn-of-the-month Becher Chase have attracted big fields.

Saturday’s version provided a big long-distance double in valuable handicap chases on successive weekends for the Skeltons. Their Ashtown Lad finally brought all his promise over several seasons to fruition in the style of a horse that could one day go well in a Grand National.

The success followed last week’s Coral Gold Cup win at Newbury for Le Milos, both horses getting exceptional rides from Harry Skelton, happy to have won a jockeys’ championship but happier still that all his energies can be put to the family business.

You could expect both horses to be among the entries for the 2023 Grand National, but I fear those two and pretty much everything else will have to work hard to get past the present incumbent Noble Yeats. He had a nice sideways look at some of the obstacles he encountered last April when he scooted round three miles, one furlong of the Mildmay Course on Saturday in the Many Clouds Chase, a £45k Grade 2 contest.

In the old days the perceived wisdom was that once horses win the Grand National, not only do they lose their speed, but they also find the hike in their ratings prohibitive. In out-speeding such smart performers as Dashel Drasher and Ahoy Senor in the last quarter mile on terms akin to their respective handicap ratings, Noble Yeats is clearly still improving – and fast! The Emmet Mullins-trained and Robert Waley-Cohen-owned seven-year-old could run up a sequence in the great race to challenge the memory of Red Rum and Tiger Roll.

Noble Yeats was the youngest winner of the race for more than 80 years. He is the first seven-year-old to have been successful since Bogskar in 1940. He was rated 147 going into the National this year and that had risen to 160 before Saturday. It looks sure to be set for another small increase, but weight may be less crucial than handling the fences at Aintree.

The two greatest Grand National exponents of my lifetime both began their careers in the race as eight-year-olds, which gave them plenty of time for multiple challenges and successive wins.

After all that I need to return briefly to one of the few races on infamous Ascot Saturday that wasn’t significantly affected by non-runners. That was the fillies’ hurdle race when many thought Coquelicot might have been flattered because basically Rex Dingle rode the pants off his rivals, getting a lead they couldn’t peg back.

Therefore, when she turned up again for another very strong mares’ race at Sandown on Saturday, they all knew what was coming – if they didn’t, they needed locking up! With Aidan Coleman taking over, ‘Cookie’ again made all the running, this time with some classy females snapping at her heels for the last mile. I told the owner/editor two weeks ago that Ascot was merely the start, rather than the end of her success story.

(Also, for the class of race, the £8k and not a lot more to the winner, looked meagre in the extreme for 0-130 animals. But the sporting owners that make up this fun syndicate operation put Saturday winners a long way over expensive dinners!). Don’t worry boys and girls, there will be other big days from this lovable mare!

  • TS

Trainer Profiles: Dan Skelton

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In this, my second National Hunt trainer piece, I am going to focus on Dan Skelton. I will be digging through nearly ten years of UK racing data from 1st January 2013 to 31st October 2022. The vast majority of the stats I share can be sourced by members using the Geegeez Query Tool. All profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price, but I will quote Betfair SP data when appropriate.

Dan Skelton Brief Bio

Dan Skelton is the son of show jumping legend Nick Skelton and started training in 2013 having previously been assistant to Paul Nicholls. It is very much a family business and younger brother Harry is the stable jockey. Skelton has saddled at least 150 wins in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2021, Covid intervening in 2020.

Dan Skelton Overall Record

Below is some further detail around the yard's win record by year:

 

There's a consistent strike rate year in year out. 2020 was a little below par but with Covid hitting that year several stables had a slight dip in fortunes. Here is a graphical look at the win and placed (EW) yearly strike rates:

 

 

His overall win strike rate over the 10-year period stands at 18.8%; the each way SR at 40.2%. Breaking down into five-year batches really demonstrates Skelton's consistency:

 

 

In terms of profits / losses, overall figures stand at 23% losses to Industry SP which improves to just under 12% to BSP. This suggests that he has not had many big priced winners that can help to skew such stats. We’ll see if that is case a bit later when we delve into market factors.

At this juncture it is worth mentioning he rarely send runners across the Irish Sea, just 12 having made the journey in 10 years; and only one has won.

It's time now to dig a bit deeper with race distance first on the agenda.

 

Dan Skelton Performance by Race Distance

Last time, we saw that the Paul Nicholls stable performed better at distances of 2m6f or less – what about the Skelton stats?

 

 

His figures are remarkably even across the board in terms of strike rate, while losses are slightly greater at races of 2m1f or less. All in all there seems to be no real distance bias in play here.

 

Dan Skelton Performance in NH Race types

Onto race types now and here are the splits:

 

As a general rule, National Hunt flat races, or bumpers as they are known, seem to be an area to avoid, with a relatively modest strike rate by Skelton's standards of 15.4% and losses hitting just over 38p in the £. However, here are four additional NH flat race stats for Skelton which may surprise as three are positive:

  1. Market position seems key – favourites and second favourites have combined to win 59 races from 186 runners (SR 31.7%) for a loss of £5.76 (ROI -3.1%). BSP returns nudge into the positive returning just over a 6% profit (6p in the £);
  1. Horses third or bigger in the betting have won just 14 races from 314 (SR 5.7%) for steep losses to SP of £185.80 (ROI -59.2%). ROI to BSP is still poor standing at just under -54%;
  1. Despite his overall record in bumpers being quite modest, horses aged six or older actually have an excellent record in these races. 22 wins from 67 (SR 32.8%) for a profit of £21.95 (ROI +32.8%). BSP profits stand at +£30.47 (ROI 45.5%);
  1. This stat has some links with the previous one – bumper horses that had previously had at least three career runs have produced 15 wins from 53 (SR 28.3%) for a profit to SP of £4.00 (ROI +7.6%); to BSP this becomes a profit of £9.53 (ROI +18.0%).

This is a good example of why it is important to drill down into general stats in more detail as you may find positives (or indeed negatives) you were not expecting.

 

Dan Skelton Performance in Chases (excluding hunter chases)

Onto chases now. Overall, Dan has a strike rate of one win in every five races, which is a decent starting point. Let's  split them by handicap and non-handicap chase to see what we get:

 

 

Skelton has many more runners in handicap chases, but his non-handicap chase figures are very good indeed. To have an A/E index of 1.00 across 350 races is impressive and losses to SP have been minimal. To BSP profits stand at £24.73 which equates to returns of 7p in the £.

Sticking with non-handicap chases if we break the results down by distance we see a clear pattern:

 

The stable has enjoyed excellent results at shorter distances but, as the race distances increase, we see a notable drop off in performance. There is also a difference when we analyse class of race in non-handicap chases as the table below shows:

 

That's a huge differential in terms of strike rate, profit/loss, A/E indices and Impact Values. Top class non-handicap chases (class 1 and 2) are perhaps generally best avoided when it comes to Skelton entries: they look under-priced and over-bet.

It is also worth looking at the performance by age in these non-handicap chases as again we see a clear pattern:

 

 

 

Skelton horses aged 4 to 6 in non-handicap chases score roughly twice as often when compared to horses aged 7 or older. These younger horses have also been highly profitable, returning 37p in the £ to Industry SP and 49p in the £ to BSP.

Some final stats I want to share in terms of non-handicap chases are connected with number of previous chase runs. Horses having their first ever UK run in a chase have won 29 races from 86 (SR 33.7%) for an SP profit of £24.61 (ROI +28.6%); BSP profit stands at £37.20 (ROI +43.3%). Horses having their second ever UK run in a chase have won 26 from 69 (SR 37.7%) for an SP profit of £7.86 (ROI +11.4%); BSP profit stands at £14.75 (ROI +21.4%).

 

Dan Skelton Performance in Hurdle Races

A quick delve into hurdle races now – firstly handicap versus non-handicap results:

 

There has been a better strike rate in non-handicap hurdles as you would expect. Losses to SP are similar – to BSP non-handicap losses stand at around 17% and handicap ones at 8%. BSP figures in handicap races have been skewed a little by a few decent priced winners.

It is not easy to find profitable angles hurdles wise for Skelton. However, one snippet which has proved profitable is his record with older hurdlers. Hurdlers aged 9 or older actually have a good record: they have won 40 races from 228 runs (SR 17.5%) for an SP profit of £18.21 (ROI +8.0%); to BSP this improves to £65.62 (ROI +28.8%). If you stuck to handicap hurdles only this improves SP profits to +£35.88 (ROI +17.9%); BSP becomes +£82.96 (ROI +41.3%).

 

Dan Skelton Performance by Starting Price

Let’s examine starting price now using Industry SP prices. Firstly win strike rates:

 

The win strike rates go down uniformly as the price bands increase, which is of course what we would expect. Let's compare A/E values now:

 

 

It seems that there has been better value at the front end of the market (11/4 or shorter), which is again the general expectation. Indeed, horses priced between evens and 11/4 would have broken even if betting at BSP. Outsiders seem to have struggled: horses priced 14/1 or bigger would have produced enormous losses to SP of 61p in the £; at BSP this improved slightly but would still have lost you over 40p in every £ bet. The message is clear – avoid horses priced 14/1 or bigger. Focus on horses that are no bigger than 12/1.

 

Dan Skelton Performance by Course

I am now going to look at all courses where Skelton has had at least 100 runners and break the data down into different subsets. Firstly I am going to look at win strike rate and A/E indices across all races, hurdle races and chases (again exc. hunter chases). With a ‘par’ A/E index for all trainers at around 0.87, I have highlighted A/E indices of 0.95 or higher (in green) as a positive. A/E indices of 0.79 or lower (in red) are a negative:

 

In general we can see that the majority of individual courses correlate well across the two main race types. Skelton has poor records across the board at Cheltenham, Haydock, Newbury, Newton Abbot and Sandown. On the flip side his performances at Ascot, Market Rasen, Uttoxeter and Wetherby have been good – at all four courses you would have made a blind profit to Betfair prices.

He has contrasting stats at Doncaster, Fontwell, Kempton and Southwell – at all four courses he has solid records in chases but relatively poor performance in hurdle races.

Now a look at the same courses comparing handicap with non-handicap results using the same colour coding as before:

 

 

Interestingly, fewer than half the courses have good correlation between their handicap and non-handicap stats. This helps to illustrate why it is good to break down course stats if the sample sizes are big enough.

Here are five of the strongest positive Skelton course statistics I found:

  1. In non-handicap chases at Uttoxeter, Skelton has saddled 10 winners from 21 (SR 47.6%) for an SP profit of £16.44 (ROI + 78.3%);
  1. In non-handicap hurdles at Wetherby, sticking to horses priced 6/1 or shorter his record reads an impressive 33 wins from 65 (SR 50.8%). SP profits stand at £32.39 giving returns just shy of 50p in the £;
  1. Favourites at Leicester have won 13 of their 22 races for a profit to £1 level stakes of £6.57 (ROI +29.9%);
  1. At Fontwell horses racing in chases priced at 6/1 or shorter have secured am impressive strike rate of 44.1% thanks to 15 wins from just 34 runners. Profits to SP stand at £13.40 (ROI +39.4%);
  1. At Warwick horses racing in chases priced at 6/1 or shorter have won 29 of 67 (SR 43.3%) for a profit of £26.68 (ROI +39.8%).

 

Those are good profits to Industry SP across the board and, clearly, using BSP would have improved all of these profits by a few shekels.

 

Dan Skelton Performance by Running Style

A look at running style next. To begin with let us see the proportion of runners that fit a specific running style. Geegeez breaks these running styles into four:

Led – front runners; horse or horses that take an early lead; Prominent – horses that track the pace close behind the leader(s); Mid Division – horses that race mid pack; Held Up – horses that race at, or near the back of the field early.

Here are the splits for Skelton:

 

 

We can see the preferred running style for Skelton is clearly holding his horses up. It should be noted that hold up horses make up around 31-33%% of all National Hunt run styles but Dan's figure of 44.8% is almost 50% above that, which is quite remarkable.

Onto the win success rate of each running style now:

 

 

With just under 13% of all hold up horses winning, it begs the question why are so many runners from the yard held up? His front runners / early leaders have won one in every three races – this means a Skelton front runner has just over 2½ times more chance of winning a race than a Skelton hold up horse. Of course, some of the Skelton horses that are held up might simply not have the early pace to lay up closer to the pace, or may be working towards a handicap mark but, even so, these are powerful differences in performance.

I want to look at favourites now and compare their success rate in terms of run style:

 

 

We see exactly the same pattern here with favourites that get to the lead early having an excellent record. Prominent racers also score an impressive amount; however, horses that race mid-division or are held up early perform well below the norm. If you had backed Skelton favourites that ended up racing early in mid-division or at the back it would have cost you around 16p in the £ to SP. Front running favourites by contrast would have made a small profit, while prominent racing favs would have lost just 5p in the £.

Earlier in the article we saw that Skelton’s record in non-handicap chases (excluding hunter chases) is good. Let’s look at the percentage of runners in these chases that matched each specific run style:

 

 

 

There's quite an interesting difference here when you compare this pie with the ‘All Races’ run style data shared earlier. Far fewer horses have been held up in non-handicap chases compared with ‘All Races’, while over 30% of Skelton runners have been sent to the front early which is more than double the percentage for ‘All Races’. How curious that the stable's non-handicap chase results have been by far their best when comparing them to other race types! Could this better showing be anything to do with run style factors?!

 

Dan Skelton Performance by Jockey

Onto some jockey analysis now and, specifically, a look at any jockey who has ridden at least 50 times for Skelton since 2013, with the proviso that they have had at least one ride for the stable in 2022. I have ordered them by number of rides starting with the most:

 

 

Stable jockey Harry Skelton rides roughly 80% of all the horses from the yard. He also has by far the best record. Indeed if you combine ALL of the other jockeys who have ridden for Dan Skelton since 2013, between them they have scored 216 times from 1745 rides – this equates to win SR% of 12.1% vs Harry's 21.7%.

Backing all Harry Skelton mounts using BSP would have lost you only 2p in the £. That's highly impressive considering he has had more than 4100 rides! Strangely, though, there are no easy ways to profit from the Skelton / Skelton combo despite this excellent BSP starting point. One ‘positive’ worth mentioning is that you would have roughly broken even to BSP if sticking to horses that were 12/1 or shorter (Industry SP) or 20.0 or shorter BSP.

Harry Skelton has similar records in chases and hurdle races but he has been less successful in National Hunt Flat races as the table below shows:

 

 

Losses of over 36p in the £ in National Hunt Flat races are steep. The main reason for this is the fact that bigger priced horses have had a dreadful time in these races – something touched upon earlier when looking at all NHF races:

 

As can be seen, Harry has ridden just one winner for brother Dan in bumpers sent off 8/1 or bigger, from 114 starters.

Finally while looking at jockey Harry Skelton, he rides front runners well, scoring nearly 37% of the time on them (overall figure for the stable was 33% - see earlier graph). Indeed, he seems to ride Uttoxeter extremely well from the front winning 22 times from just 38 rides (SR 57.9%).

 

Dan Skelton: Extra stats and nuggets

With the main body of the article complete let me share some extra stats / nuggets that may be of interest:

  1. His longest losing run over the ten seasons stands at 38. He has had 38 losers in a row on two separate occasions
  2. His least successful day was on Boxing Day 2019. He sent out 17 runners and his best finishing position was 4th
  3. He has saddled back to back winners (e.g. one horse winning and then his next runner winning also) on 209 separate occasions
  4. His most successful day was on 24th April 2019 when he saddled 6 winners from 9 runners on the day
  5. I mentioned in the last article that there are punters around who occasionally back their favourite trainer or favourite jockey and put the selections in doubles, trebles etc. So what have happened if you had backed all Dan Skelton’s runners in trebles on the days when he had exactly three runners? Well, he has had exactly three runners running on the same day 301 times; the treble would have been landed five times. However, due to the fact that most prices were very short, if you had placed a £1 win treble on all 301 days you would have lost a staggering £259.33 (ROI -86.2%). Ouch!
  6. Just over 450 horses have run at least five times for Skelton– of these horses 77% of them have won at least one race

 

Dan Skelton – Main Takeaways

  1. Skelton has been very consistent year in year out with strike rates ranging between 16 and 21%
  2. In National Hunt Flat races generally look for shorter priced runners or horses aged 6 or older
  3. Skelton has a good record in non-handicap chases (excluding hunter chases), especially in Class 3 or lower or with horses aged 6 and younger. Also the shorter distance the better
  4. Horses having their first or second career chase run have positive records in non-handicap chases
  5. Hurdlers aged 9 or older have made a profit; these profits have been particularly good when sticking to handicap hurdles only
  6. Horses priced 14/1 or bigger (Industry SP) have a very poor record across all race types
  7. Uttoxeter and Wetherby are two tracks where Skelton runners generally perform well. At Uttoxeter this is especially true in non-handicap chases, at Wetherby in non-handicap hurdle races
  8. Nearly 45% of all Skelton runners take a position near the back of the field early in the race, of which less than 13% of them go onto win. Front runners fare well generally, especially in non-handicap chases
  9. Harry Skelton takes the vast majority of the rides and scores over 21% of the time. All other jockeys combined have scored just 12% of the time

 

That's plenty of Dan Skelton stats to get your teeth into, both positive and negative. Skelton sends out a good number of runners each week so hopefully this will give us plenty of potential betting opportunities in the coming weeks and months.

Good luck!

- Dave R

Monday Musings: Of Champions – Past, Present and Future

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The minute the decision was made to pull Constitution Hill out of a probable exhibition round that was going to double as his return to action at Ascot last weekend, you knew Nicky Henderson would merely shrug his shoulders and switch him to Newcastle, writes Tony Stafford.

What about 2020 Champion Hurdle heroine Epatante, long since pencilled in for a third consecutive challenge after one and a half wins (she shared the 2021 Fighting Fifth Hurd1e with Not So Sleepy)? Tough, she can run too, he reasoned. As I said here last week, he has plenty of previous.

The net effect: J P McManus, instead of collecting the owner’s share of £64,710, cedes that to Michael Buckley and gets instead £24,380. Lady Blyth, whose Not So Sleepy finished well to get within two and a half lengths of Epatante on ground faster than ideal, collected half of what would have been the case. Then again, J P has become used to that sort of thing over the years.

While Nicky looked on from Newbury, animatedly showing the cameras a real anxiety at the outcome, Buckers made the journey and shared in the wonder of it all with the viewers. Meanwhile, back at Newbury, Hendo was resplendent in the Cossack-style hat he had bought at the Peter O’Sullevan lunch on Thursday, a midwinter accoutrement for the master commentator, a man rightly still revered seven years after his death at the age of 97.

That generous gesture would have given Nicky some brownie points. J P is a leading light in the annual organisation of the charity event in memory of his late, great friend, which has provided so much welcome help to good causes, never needed more than in today’s straightened times.

For Henderson, the sight of Constitution Hill effortlessly drawing away from his older, female stable companion to the tune of 12 lengths must have been received with a mixture of pride and not inconsiderable relief. It may also mean that the three-year stranglehold on the top spot in hurdling by mares is about to end.

The trainer’s percentage remained whatever it is now of the £89k for Newcastle, on top of his automatic share in another £92k over two days at Newbury principally. On Friday J P McManus’ Champ – perhaps just as well – held off the fabulous finish of old adversary Paisley Park in the Coral Long Distance Hurdle, a win augmented by impressive novice winner Jet Powered earlier.

On Saturday, smart bumper performer Luccia stepped up in a very competitive fillies’ novice hurdle with a flawless performance on debut, almost in the Constitution Hill class, and First Street also impressed in the graduation hurdle against high class opposition. To complete the borderline obscenely successful weekend, Touchy Feely was an appropriate winner for Seven Barrows at Doncaster.

I have two post-scripts to the “do”. Ben Pauling was hard to reach on Friday morning, and when, finally he was contactable, he explained how tired he had been, understandable in view of the fact he got home from lunch at 1 a.m., replicating the sort of irresponsible behaviour that many used to exhibit at the annual Horserace Writers’ Awards lunch in London.

That pre-Christmas staple goes on at Lancaster Gate next Monday and I have received a welcome and most unexpected invitation. I promise I will make it home before midnight. (The following Monday we have family tickets for Cinderella. I better get into practice!)

The other amusing incident concerned a random meeting in the gents, mid-lunch between Henderson and Not So Sleepy’s trainer, Hughie Morrison. Hughie relates: “He wasn’t interested how Sleepy would run, just whether we would knock over one or other of his horses at the start or at the first hurdle.

“He asked, “which way does he hang?”, to which I replied: “Wherever the other horse happens to be!” That hardly placated him but, obviously, on the day he was as good as he ever has been and ran a blinder. Then again, going into last year’s Champion Hurdle, Sleepy was the highest-rated UK hurdler and his latest Cesarewitch run shows how unwise it is ever to under-estimate him.”

Top male hurdlers do not have an alternative championship race at the Cheltenham Festival, so trainers not keen to take on the now 4-7 shot Constitution Hill in the Champion, must either grin and bear it or wait for the 2m5f Aintree Hurdle. The mares have a couple of options at Cheltenham, and it would not be a shock if Epatante looked elsewhere after this summary lesson from her younger colleague.

What intrigues me more is the Honeysuckle situation that confronts Henry De Bromhead. His mare is on 16 wins unbeaten with two Champion Hurdles on the board. Does she carry on regardless and try for the hat-trick in the knowledge that her toughest challenge and most talented rival awaits? Or does she slip into a mares’ race to extend the unbeaten record?

You might almost wish her to have a hiccup in one of her prep races on the way. Such as being carried out at the start or first hurdle – don’t suggest Not So Sleepy! - so that it wouldn’t be numerically quite so vital. Then again there would be no shame or stud career implications in 16 and a couple more unbeaten and a second to Constitution Hill. If she did beat him – partisan Irish delirium and equine fame for as long as horses race over jumps awaits her. I hope they will meet next March for the Big Showdown on Prestbury Hill.

It's the big races that inevitably attract the most attention and are vital for the major stables that they collect their share of them. Over the past few years, the Dan Skelton stable has made a conscious decision to reduce its summer activity for a corresponding increase in concentration on the top end.

As the horses came to the closing stages of the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury on Saturday, Harry Skelton on his brother’s Le Milos was being vigorously pursued by two David Pipe-trained horses, Remastered and Gericault Rogue. Going to the last Gericault Rogue was seen to be tiring just as Remastered came on, seemingly about to atone for last season’s unlucky fall four from home when going like the probable winner.

Yet, hard as he strived, Le Milos found that little bit more to deny him. The £142,000 the horse brought his owners, the Jolly Good Partnership, tipped Skelton over the £1 million mark for the season, for the eighth time in succession. He has 54 wins to his credit.

That makes him the nearest to former boss Paul Nicholls, who had three victories over the Newbury weekend taking his tally to 70 and earnings of £1,161K. Most wins have been collected by Fergal O’Brien, nearer the old Skelton model with summer activity, but that alone cannot explain away 90 wins. It’s almost a rewind to the old Martin Pipe days.

Martin’s son has been doing extremely well this season already and despite missing the big one on Saturday, he’s now on a faster-than-recently 50 for the season. Had the Skelton horse departed at the last fence – not that anyone could have wished such an eventuality – Pipe would have been pushing £800k rather than £634k!

Nicky’s 35 wins so far have brought him neatly onto a shade over half a million and with the massive expectations of Constitution Hill, Luccia and novice chase prospect Jonbon, all set to clean up in their various categories barring mishap, he’ll be making up the ground rapidly from now on.

Henderson agreed that the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton would be the obvious step for Constitution Hill, and that was the next step for his 2008 winner of the Fighting Fifth, which was run at Wetherby as Newcastle was off games.

At that time Ian Turner, now racing manager for the McNeill family, was the man behind a sponsorship offering a £1 million bonus for a horse that won all three races culminating in the Champion Hurdle.

Punjabi won that Wetherby leg and by coincidence Turner was at the Yorkshire track last week to see his boss’s hurdles debutant Spartan Army (£170k, ex-Joseph O’Brien) win impressively for Alan King. He looks a natural for the Triumph Hurdle although Gary Moore’s Leicester winner, Perseus Way, looks smart too.

As to the £1 million, Punjabi fell at Kempton before winning the Champion Hurdle. That cost owner Ray Tooth, his trainer and the stable staff a chunk of money! Were they bothered? Not once Punjabi and Barry Geraghty claimed the Festival showpiece at 33/1 they weren’t!

Finally, while we’re talking in terms of millions, congratulations to Ryan Moore who early yesterday morning won his second Japan Cup at Tokyo racecourse. Riding 7-2 third favourite, Vela Azul, a five-year-old stallion, he won the £2,593,463.46 to the winner race for trainer Kunihiko Watanabe and owners Carrot Farm Co Ltd in daring fashion. After his wonderful Breeders’ Cup meeting earlier in the month, this makes 2022 a year to treasure for the former champion.

- TS

Roving Reports: Lucky Man

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"You're a lucky man, you."

"How do you mean?"

"You get to go racing most days, and when you're not going racing, you're writing about going racing. Most blokes I know would swap with you in an instant."

Thus went a conversation with a friend whilst at Cheltenham recently. I'm not going to sit here and tell you that, on a gorgeous warm, sunny Monday evening by the Thames, drinking a beer whilst I peruse some lovely-looking 2yos in the paddock at Windsor, that what I do for a living doesn't have its advantages.

However, it isn't all sweetness and light, and the flip side of the coin that has a Monday Windsor as heads, is a Market Rasen Thursday in winter as tails.

Such a Thursday came to pass last week when I'm booked in to do paddock notes. A gander at the weather forecast the night before looks bleak; when the area you're working in can't been seen on the national map for the sea of blue on top of it, you know the waterproofs are needed.

Those, plus the woolly hat and boots, are packed as I set off through the driving rain Thursday morning. You'll be delighted to hear that Rasen is not three-and-a-half hours away from my house, but a mere ninety minutes. Once you're past the A46 bottleneck at Newark (the only place name in England that's an anagram of w****r - one to amuse your friends with down the pub) it's all plain sailing.

When I arrive in the grassy car park at Rasen, there's a brief second where, as I turn into my space, the car has a little sideways wobble. It's already getting very wet. Nevertheless, equipped in full rain gear, I'm ready to face the elements.

Better still, we're now told the rain will have passed over by 1pm, and then it'll brighten up. As they come out for the first at about ten past twelve, it doesn't feel like it's about to suddenly dry up; indeed it appears to be raining harder. I start to take notes.

One o'clock comes and goes, and the sky is as slate grey as when I arrived. This isn't drying up any time soon. Huge puddles are starting to appear in the parade ring and by the winners enclosure. By the time we get to race 3 we need an inspection to see if we can carry on, as there's standing water everywhere. The jockeys say it's fine and so the horses come out for the next.

The rain gets harder still. My notes are nothing but a soggy mush, unreadable. I can definitely feel damp patches under the waterproofs. I take refuge under a bookmaker's umbrella as another inspection is announced.

The rain is pouring off every roof you can see and it comes down harder still. A decision is taken that the horses won't now use the flooded parade ring and will go straight to the start, which makes my reason for actually being at the track, to look at them in the paddock, non-existent.

I don't care whether it's raceable or not, it's now clear we shouldn't be here. Everywhere is becoming flooded. I'm told to go home, but the exit itself is just a lake. "Go up the middle", the security guard tells me. I do, and my boot immediately goes underwater. By the time I get to the car I'm soaked, head to toe. I can actually wring my socks out. I have no choice but to get the lot off and drive home in a t-shirt and, thankfully, a pair of dry trainers that are in the boot more by luck than anything else.

Needless to say the car spins and skids its way out of the car park and by the time I get to Middle Rasen, the next village along, the road is barely passable. It takes me over two hours to get back. Steady as she goes, captain.

There has to come a point in a race meeting when it rains so heavily and for so long that what happens on the track is secondary. Customer safety must take priority, not just at the track but in the surrounding areas, too. I don't believe that happened here and I'm glad I went when I did. The meeting was abandoned about 15 minutes after I left, unsurprisingly, but for me it went on a race too long.

That's the worst thing that's befallen me since my last missive. In other, better news, I've worked at Southwell a couple of times, once actually to help host a box for the first time and once on a pitch. The box was a strange experience, as I've not done it before; but it went well and people seemed to enjoy themselves, despite the fact my tips, by and large, ran slower then treacle. Saying that, the nap won at 13-8, so some redemption.

However, the day I worked the pitch was unbelievable. I have no idea where they came from, but we had punters - good punters - having absolute chunks on. On my pitch alone I took the following: a £1000 bet Khabib in the second, a £1000 bet (and a £400) Western Beat in the fifth, and a £500 Dancinginthewoods in the next, all of which are beaten. In terms of turnover we take almost five times what we'd normally take, seemingly from a few just out to have a tilt at the ring without any great inside knowledge.

It's good to see a few of the Southwell regulars in attendance. We workmen have nicknames for a few of them: "price-pincher", for whom the price has "just gone" almost every time he has a bet, and he'll try and pinch the bigger price; "DFS", who has a jacket that looks like it was once part of a sofa; "Nemesis", named not after the Alton Towers rollercoaster but due to the fact he's almost unbeatable, usually coming in very late with his bet; the self-explanatory "ice-cream man", and a couple of lads we call "The Professionals". They're not, but they like to think they are.

The last port of call this week is Wetherby. It rains heavily on the morning of racing.

When the first thing you're asked by the car park attendant, on arrival is, "how good is your car at getting out of mud?", then you know it's been a close call getting the meeting on. Mud, glorious mud. It's literally everywhere and the heavy duty boots are out again. Sun's out now though, and there's a rainbow. All I need to do now is find the pot of gold at the end of it. I'll take four winners on a Yankee if that's not possible.

There's no pot of gold, barely even a sliver of silver as the afternoon progresses, and the only bright spot is the excellent piece of lemon drizzle from the coffee shop. Thankfully, the car gets out of the car park in one piece and the best decision I make is to go down the M1 rather than the A1 back home, as it turns out the latter is blocked. Seems I can back the winner of a two-horse race!

It's Newbury and the not-the-Hennessy this weekend for me, working for the MT firm in the ring. I'll let you know how that goes next time. In the meantime, I'm just setting the alarm for the 6am start. Remind me again how lucky I am...

- DM

Trainer Profiles: Paul Nicholls

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In this, and subsequent articles I am picking up the baton from Matt and Jon who have both previously written excellent pieces digging into the profiles of certain trainers, writes Dave Renham. As we are heading into the winter months it makes sense to throw the spotlight on some National Hunt trainers for this latest series. The first trainer I am going to look at is one of Britain's winter luminaries, Paul Nicholls.

I will be analysing nearly ten years of UK racing data from 1st January 2013 to 31st October 2022, the majority of which can be sourced by members using the Geegeez Query Tool. All profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price. Of course, we should be able to significantly improve upon the baseline figures of SP using the exchanges or BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed), and I will share Betfair SP data when appropriate.

Paul Nicholls Brief Biography

Born in Gloucestershire on April 17th 1962, Paul Frank Nicholls was educated at Marlwood School. He didn’t carry on into further education because, upon leaving school aged 16, he started working in a point-to-point yard. By the age of 20 he was race riding for Josh Gifford out of Findon, West Sussex, and then, in 1985, he moved to David Barons. His biggest successes as a jockey were back to back wins in the Hennessy Gold Cup (1986 & ’87) and, in his seven year career, he rode a relatively modest 133 winners. However, it is as a trainer that he has really excelled. Nicholls first took out his licence in 1991 but his training career took off in 1999 when he bagged three wins at the Cheltenham Festival, including the Gold Cup with See More Business. He was crowned Champion trainer for the first time in 2005-06 and, since then, has repeated this feat an amazing dozen further times.

Paul Nicholls Overall Performance Record

Below is Paul Nicholls' win record by calendar year:

 

Every year during the decade or so in review, his win strike rate has exceeded 20% which is impressive. Also, both his win and each way figures are consistent; both can be seen on the graph below:

 

 

Nicholls' overall win strike rate across the 10-year period stands at 23%; the each way SR at 43.2%. Breaking down into five-year groups really demonstrates his consistency:

 

Not surprisingly, though, given the Ditcheat handler's high profile, profits are hard to come by; and if you had backed all 5693 runners you would have lost roughly 12p in the £ to Industry SP. However, this improves to just under a 3p loss in the £ using BSP - not the worst way to lose a few quid with a high strike rate!

At this juncture it is worth mentioning Nicholls does send the occasional runner over to Ireland, but these are extremely rare. Indeed, just 29 runners have crossed the Irish Sea since 2013 with five winning and a further eight getting placed. Backing all his Irish runners would have seen a steep loss of 40p in the £.

It's time to dig a bit deeper.

Paul Nicholls Performance by Race Distance

When Matt dug into the Nicky Henderson numbers we saw a definite preference for shorter distances. What about his great rival Nicholls?

 

The distance distinction is not as pronounced as with the Henderson data but Team Nicholls do also seem to perform slightly worse in staying races, both from a win and returns perspective. The each way figures correlate, too, with 3 mile+ runners placing just over 36% of the time compared to the other two distance groups which stand at 46.3% (2m1f or less) and 44.8% (2m2f to 2m6f).

Paul Nicholls Performance in 3 mile+ Races

I want to dig into these 3 mile+ races in more detail as I think it is equally important to share negative angles as positive ones; avoiding poor value bets will clearly help our bottom line in the long run.

When we split these longer races into handicap and non-handicap races we get some very interesting results:

 

One might expect some difference in the win strike rates in favour of non-handicaps, due to quality biases and field size, but it is the returns that stand out. In non-handicap staying races, blanket support would have nudged into BSP profit; whereas in handicap races, losses of 31.58% (SP) are steep and, even using BSP, this only improved to a loss of 23.5% (23.5p in the £).

Here are the splits for 3m+ handicap chases and handicap hurdles:

 

Here we see similar win percentages, Impact Values and Actual vs Expected (A/E) indices; handicap chases have lost a little less money, but I would suggest these races are generally worth avoiding, unless you have a good additional reason to get involved.

 

Paul Nicholls Performance in Handicaps at 2m6f or less

Having seen some relatively poor stats for staying handicaps, let me share some more positive data.

 

As can be seen, Nicholls has recorded much higher strike rates, A/E and IV indices and, in the case of handicap hurdles, the smallest of profits even at starting price. At BSP, however, those profits would be just above the £200 mark to £1 level stakes – this equates to excellent returns of 22p in the £.

Despite this positive performance in handicap hurdle races of 2m6f or less, it is interesting to see the varying win strike rates at different courses. Below are all courses where Nicholls has had at least 40 runners:

 

 

There is quite a range here: one might expect lower strike rates at Ascot and Cheltenham due to the competitive nature of the races and, generally, races at these courses have bigger fields. Despite the low win rate, however, Nicholls has made an SP profit at Cheltenham in this context.

I want to share Nicholls' Taunton data specifically, as it is impressive: 18 wins from 71 runners, with a further 22 placed. Taunton SP profits stand at £27.47 (ROI +38.7%). BSP profits would have been increased considerably to +£47.29 (ROI +49.3%).

Paul Nicholls Performance in Non-handicap races

We have already seen that Nicholls has performed well in non-handicap races of 3 miles or further. Here are his overall non-handicap stats across different race types (all distances):

 

There are not many hunter chase runners per year (average around 13), but that cohort has made a small profit. However, the profit is hugely skewed due to two big-priced Cheltenham winners at 16/1 and 25/1.

His non-handicap chase figures (excluding hunter chases) also look very solid. Below I have broken down this record by age of horse – and it reveals a clear pattern:

 

 

There is a definite drop off in success rate in non-handicap chases as the horses hit the age of 8. Horses aged 7 or younger actually made a 3% profit to BSP; those 8 or older would have lost nearly 19% to BSP.

Sticking with these non-handicap chases (excluding hunter chases) and splitting the performance by starting price gives us the following breakdown:

 

Clearly horses priced between evens and 9/2 have offered punters good value in the past. The figures in the table above are to Industry SP; using Betfair SP one would have roughly doubled those profits. We can see very good A/E indices, too. In contrast, once starting prices get to 5/1 or bigger, there have been quite significant losses.

Paul Nicholls Performance by Starting Price

We have seen some SP data already, but let us now look at all races as a whole:

 

The win strike rates go down uniformly as the price bands increase – nothing unusual there. Industry SP losses have been smallest with the shorter priced runners, but the Betfair SP returns on investment are probably more useful to see.

 

 

Using Betfair SP sees a much more even return on investment across the price bands (ranging from a high of +1.6% to a low of -7.6%). In contrast to the Industry SP figures, it actually looks more advantageous to focus on runners priced 5/1 or bigger.

Paul Nicholls Performance by Course

I shared a small amount of course data earlier, but I want to dig a little deeper. I am going to look at all courses where Nicholls has had at least 100 runners and break the data down into different subsets. Firstly I am going to look at win strike rate and A/E indices across all races, hurdle races, and chases (again excluding hunter chases). With a ‘par’ A/E index for all trainers at around 0.87, I have highlighted A/E indices of 0.95 or higher (in green) – these are essentially positive. A/E indices of 0.79 or lower (in red) are negative:

 

 

There is a good sprinkling of positive A/E indices with not many negative ones; strong overall stats emerge for Fontwell, Newbury and Taunton.

Meanwhile, Haydock fascinates me; here, Nicholls' chase figures are exceptional, showing a 31p in the £ profit to SP, but his hurdle figures at the same course are dire, with a very low strike rate and losses in excess of a bruising 62p in the £. There are some things you just cannot explain!

Now a look at the same courses comparing handicap with non-handicap results using the same colour coding as before:

 

 

This time there is a more even split of positive and negative A/E indices. Fontwell and Newbury once again stand out, while Haydock again has hugely conflicting figures – excellent non-handicap results, dreadful handicap ones.

I have dug still deeper at different courses to share with you five positive looking PFN track stats:

  1. At Fontwell in non-handicap chases (excluding hunter chases) the stable has secured 22 wins from 36 (SR 61.1%) for a profit of £9.73 (ROI +27.0%). Using BSP would increase profits marginally to £11.64 (ROI +32.3%);
  2. At Haydock in non-handicap chases (excluding hunter chases) horses that started first or second favourite have bagged 10 wins from 16 (SR 62.5%) for a profit of £14.06 (ROI +87.9%). A slight increase again if using BSP with profits up slightly to £15.44 (ROI +96.5%);
  3. In non-handicap novice hurdles at Wincanton, Nicholls has seen 67 of his 133 runners win securing a strike rate of 50.4%. Backing all runners would have yielded an SP profit of £30.09 (ROI +22.6%); BSP profits stand at £38.38 (ROI +28.9%);
  4. At Taunton if you backed all his runners in hurdle races at 2m1f or less you would have been rewarded with 38 wins from 107 (SR 35.5%) for an SP profit of £19.51 (ROI +18.2%); BSP profits would have been double, at £38.78 (ROI +36.2%);
  5. In handicap hurdle races at Musselburgh, Nicholls has sent only 22 runners on the long trek to such events but nine have won with a further five placing. Returns of over 90p in the £ were achieved to SP; to BSP this increases to 108p in the £. When Harry Cobden has ridden, he has managed five wins and two places from just eight runs.

Paul Nicholls Performance by Horse Run Style

As regular readers of mine will know, running style data is something I believe can often be an important piece of the betting puzzle. To begin with let us see the proportion of runners that fit a specific running style. Geegeez breaks running styles into four:

Led – front runners; horse or horses that take an early lead;

Prominent – horses that track the pace close behind the leader(s);

Mid Division – horses that race mid pack;

Held Up – horses that race at, or near the back of the field early.

 

Here are the splits for Nicholls:

 

We can see the marked preference for a prominent running style, tracking the early pace. That approach has accounted for over 40% of all runners from the stable. The other three run styles are each around the 20% mark.

From here, let us review the win success rate of each running style:

 

 

This is a very familiar pattern, with horses that go to the front and lead early (L) winning a far bigger proportion of races compared to other run styles. Front runners from the Nicholls stable are edging towards winning 40% of the time. Prominent racers also do well, hitting around one win in every four races; but horses that raced mid-pack or to the rear have relatively poor records.

I want to look at favourites now to see their success rate in terms of run style:

 

 

We see exactly the same pattern here with early leading favourites having an excellent record. By contrast, if you had backed every Nicholls favourite that ended up racing early in mid-division or at the back, you would have lost a whopping 33p in the £ to SP.

We have seen already that 19.61% of runners from the stable lead when we look at all races as a whole; but this figure differs markedly depending on the race type as the table below shows:

 

 

It seems therefore that non-handicap chases are the race types where we are most likely to see a Nicholls horse front run: out of trouble. However, it should be noted that the figures are skewed somewhat as non-handicaps (both hurdle and chase) tend to have slightly smaller average field sizes when compared to handicaps. To mitigate for that, I have chosen an arbitrary field size band so that we can more easily compare ‘led’ percentages across race types. I've selected races of 6 to 8 runners only to see what happens:

 

 

So in races of 6 to 8 runners we can see that non-handicaps are still much more likely to see a Nicholls runner at the front of the pack early compared to handicaps. The gap has narrowed but it is still significant. Perhaps the most interesting finding here is that front runners in National Hunt Flat races have increased considerably in these relatively small fields. There were 81 qualifying NH Flat races and Nicholls runners led early in 30 of them. Of these, a good proportion (43.3%) went onto to win.

This is a good time to mention that statistics can be really useful and informative but, naturally, it is important to see the bigger picture as possible. Sometimes stats in isolation can be a little misleading and we need context as much as possible.

Paul Nicholls Performance by Jockey

Onto some jockey analysis now. The table below shows all jockeys to have ridden at least 50 times for Nicholls since 2013, with the proviso that they have had at least one ride for the stable in 2022. I have ordered them by number of rides starting with the most:

 

 

Stable jockey Harry Cobden has a very good record on favourites scoring nearly 46% of the time for a break even scenario to SP (profit of 4p in the £ to BSP). However, the stand out here is Bryony Frost – a strike rate of around one win in every four and a profit to boot. If betting every runner of hers at BSP the profits would have risen to £113.87 (ROI +26.8%).

She has done especially well in non-handicap chases thanks to 28 wins from 65 runners (SR 43.1%) for an SP profit of £55.11 (ROI +84.8%). At BSP these returns increase by a few pence to 92p in the £.

Here are three more Frost / Nicholls stats to be aware of:

  1. Their combined record at Ascot, Cheltenham and Kempton is impressive considering the competitive nature of the races at these tracks:

 

  1. When Frost has taken an early lead, she has won on over of 40% those runners. On hold up horses, though, she has won less than 10% of the time (SR 9.3%);
  2. Frost has an excellent record on horses she has ridden before. 68 winners from 245 rides (SR 27.8%) for a profit to SP of £87.53 (ROI +35.7%); profit to BSP of £127.01 (ROI +51.8%).

Frost is back in the saddle after a lengthy spell on the side lines so hopefully she will continue her success for Nicholls during the remainder of this season and beyond.

Paul Nicholls – Extra stats and nuggets

With the main body of the article complete let me just share with you some extra stats or nuggets that may be of interest:

  1. Nicholls' longest losing run over the ten seasons stands at 29. He has had 29 losers in a row on five separate occasions
  2. He has saddled back to back winners (e.g. one horse winning and then his next runner winning also) on 340 separate occasions
  3. There are punters around who occasionally back their favourite trainer or favourite jockey and put their selections in doubles, trebles etc. Hence I thought I would look at what would have happened if you had backed all Paul Nicholls runners in trebles on the days when he had exactly three runners. He has had exactly three runners running on the same day 212 times; the treble would have been landed seven times. However, due to the fact that most prices were quite short, if you had placed a £1 win treble on all 212 days you would have lost £96.59 (ROI -45.6%). Even worse would have occurred on days where he had exactly four runners – if you had backed all four runners in a win fourfold accumulator on each of those days, you would have landed a winning bet just once, losing a whopping £136.09 (ROI -76.9%). I am not saying punters cannot be successful with these types of bets, but the odds are generally stacked against us
  4. Just over 400 horses have run at least five times for Nicholls – of these horses 85% of them have won at least one race
  5. In handicaps the time to catch Nicholls runners is when they have had five or fewer previous runs in a handicap. This cohort has combined to win 291 of their 1624 races. Backing them at BSP would have secured a healthy profit of £243.35 (ROI +15.0%)

Paul Nicholls – Main Takeaways

Below is a summary of the key findings from my research above. It's a handy 'cut out and keep cheat sheet' for those who like such things.

  1. Every year Nicholls has secured an overall win strike rate of over 20%
  2. Distance wise, Nicholls has a relatively poor record in handicap races of 3 miles or more
  3. Handicap hurdle races at 2m 6f or less have seen impressive returns to BSP of 22p in the £
  4. In non-handicap chases (excluding hunter chases), horses aged 7 or younger have produced a small 3p in the £ profit to BSP
  5. Several course stats have been highlighted; three of the strongest being in handicap hurdles at Musselburgh, non-handicap chases at Fontwell, and non-handicap novice hurdles at Wincanton
  6. Over 40% of PFN runners take a prominent position early, of which just over 25% go onto win. His best run style performance comes with front runners / early leaders: they have won 38.5% of their races
  7. Bryony Frost has a good overall record and she has excelled in non-handicap chases
  8. Look for horses in handicaps who have previously had five or fewer handicap runs

Paul Nicholls is an incredibly successful trainer and this article has unlocked a few angles that have proved to be positive in the past. Hopefully they will continue that way for at least some time in the future, too! Also there some negatives that we need to be aware of.

I hope you have enjoyed this piece and I’ll be back next week with a drill down into the stats of another National Hunt trainer, Mr Daniel Skelton.

- DR

Monday Musings: You Can’t Make ’em Drink

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You can take a horse to Ascot, but you can’t make him run, writes Tony Stafford. This November 2022 re-working of the old proverb, where opportunities are spurned by those to whom they are presented, fitted nicely into events at that most wonderful of British racecourses last weekend.

Top hats and fashion in high summer or Barbour jackets and a hot toddy as winter takes hold, are all the same to the British public, enticed by Ascot’s Royal-ness but equally by the imaginative marketing of its executive.

Often admission prices are moderated even if that doesn’t hold for the catering. I wasn’t there on Saturday and while some of the 14 equine absentees from the seven races, leaving a total to run of 30, will have gone to the track, their trainers for the most part will have made the decision not to allow valuable animals to run on ground faster than had been anticipated.

The magnet was the £615k total money on offer. The advertised amount beforehand might well have been more, but for some time now where there are fewer runners than available prizes – or indeed if non-finishers result in that happening – the old way of bumping up the winner’s prize no longer applies.

In any case, 615 grand was a fair enticement and even such as Michael Buckley, owner of the one horse everyone wanted to see on Saturday, would have liked to have picked up the £56,000 Coral Hurdle for an exhibition round by Constitution Hill.

Not so Nicky Henderson, trainer of the horse that, in three runs culminating in that scintillating 22-length demolition of stablemate Jonbon in the Supreme Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham in March, has even supplanted the unbeaten and present dual title-holder Honeysuckle in Champion Hurdle betting.

Henderson resisted the temptation of sending him on to Aintree last spring for the near guarantee of another big pot, but in hindsight, maybe the experience of connections of two more of Saturday’s elite absentees fully vindicated his decision.

Both Edwardstone, due to run in the 2m1f Hurst Park Handicap Chase (£65k to the winner) and L’Homme Presse, one of three pulled out of the Chanelle Pharma 1965 Chase, 39k; like Constitution Hill, were novice winners at the Festival.

L’Homme Presse won the Brown Advisory Chase over just a shade beyond three miles on the fifth start of a hitherto unbeaten season. Edwardstone’s coincidental fifth unbeaten run of 2021-2 came in the Arkle Challenge Trophy at the minimum trip that week.

Both, unlike the Henderson star, did go on to Aintree in April and each lost his winning sequence, Edwardstone only second to the Irish-trained Gentleman De Mee and L’Homme Presse finishing a well-beaten third of four behind Ahoy Senor.

The pair collected a few bob in defeat and brought the duo’s earnings for the season respectively to £245k (Edwardstone) and £225k for Venetia Williams’ horse. That little bit of money in the bank helped no doubt in Alan King’s and Ms Williams’ pitch to the owners that the wisest course on Saturday was to stand aside.

So far Constitution Hill has barely scratched the surface of the riches in store, those three victories amounting to £125k. But Buckley has seen it all before while Henderson still agonises about the time he allowed Altior to run in a three-horse race but a virtual match at Ascot over 2m4f. He believes adamantly that not only did it ruin Altior, but also his one serious opponent Cyrname and still regrets that he was persuaded in part by the clamour within the media for the race to be staged.

He will now need to shuffle his pack to bring the pre-Champion Hurdle lead-up for this horse, and previous winner Epatante, up to date. J P McManus’ mare has had the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle on Saturday pencilled in for her return to action, as it has for the past two years.

She won it easily in 2020 but last year had to accept a share of the prize with Hughie Morrison’s versatile toughie Not So Sleepy. With options at the top level rather limited, who is to say that the Henderson big two might not take each other on? It wouldn’t be the first time the trainer has done that.

Indeed, he allowed Constitution Hill and McManus’ Jonbon to meet, just as six years earlier Altior and J P’s Buveur D’Air crossed swords in the same Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Altior came out comfortably on top then with his team-mate in third. Henderson was adamant after the race that he would send Altior straight over fences which he did the following autumn with extravagant success. Buveur D’Air meanwhile remained over hurdles and won the Champion Hurdle in each of the next two seasons. Obviously, the best hurdler of his era was wasting his time winning his first 14 steeplechases!

The Cyrname defeat was followed with one more win, but two further defeats suggested not only was Henderson right about Altior’s being bottomed that day at Ascot, but also that it couldn’t be justified running on Saturday as the over-efficient Ascot drainage system allied to the very low water table after the summer drought, makes for rapid changes in surfaces after rain and then dry spells.

One man’s meat – it’s ages since I used or even thought of a proverb; how about a fool and his money, etc, says Mrs S? – is another man’s opportunity. Gary Moore, king of opportunism in racing, got an unexpected dividend with stable favourite Goshen.

It was entirely in character that this man, who along with Alan King can win any type of race any time of year – there are others who we should mention, of course, in the cause of wokeness – should not balk at opposing the putative champ, even if his horse had a reputation to repair.

Clearly not enjoying his first experience of chasing last month even though it was at Ascot, his favourite track, there had to have been a chance that being smashed up by Constitution Hill would leave the sort of scar in Goshen that Henderson feared for his horse.

In the event he was left with only the three to beat in the Coral Hurdle, and you would never have thought he had been away. As to Gary Moore, he also won the main back-up race to the Betfair Chase at Haydock with the ultra-tough Botox Has. I can’t wait to see this powerful six-year-old try chases, which must surely be on the agenda in the future.

Amid all the riches on offer for the remaining Ascot 30, the 0-130 handicap hurdle for mares was worth a derisory £6,753 to the winner. But that apart, I know, it was the happy culmination of five years’ expectation and some disappointments along the road for the proprietor of this website who also happens to be the man who finds most of my many errors each week.

Coquelicot runs in the colours of Geegeez.co.uk PA, and she was winning her fifth race in 14 under a fine ride by Rex Dingle. Matt Bisogno’s sponsorship of the jockey and support for the mare’s trainer Anthony Honeyball has been as constant as the many years I’ve been penning these words.

Matt related from the winner’s circle afterwards that Saturday provided the thrill of his racing life and he sent the photo of a proud younger-looking editor holding the Soldier Of Fortune filly’s bridle right after he bought her five years ago today (Monday) for €26k at Arqana’s Autumn Mixed sale. I hope he puts it atop this week’s posting.

Coquelicot, bought as a yearling at Arqana in November 2017

Coquelicot, bought as a yearling at Arqana, November 21st 2017

 

Coquelicot and Rex Dingle win the Mariner System Mares' Handicap Hurdle in the geezgeez colours at Ascot. 19/11/2022 Pic Steve Davies/Racingfotos.com

Coquelicot and Rex Dingle win the Mariner System Mares' Handicap Hurdle in the geegeez colours at Ascot. 19/11/2022 Pic Steve Davies/Racingfotos.com

A half-sister to Melbourne Cup second and, before that, Ebor winner Hearbreak City, she has a future as a broodmare awaiting her, but plenty of winning to be done in the meantime. Matt has had lots of winners with his syndicates, but never a day like Saturday. As he says: “Didn’t those big horses run? I hadn’t noticed!” Not really folks!

The big races will be coming on apace now and on the same day as the Fighting Fifth, Newbury’s highlight is the newly-designated Coral (recently Ladbroke, same firm) Gold Cup Chase – but still, to oldies like me, the Hennessy which it was until 2017. Sam Thomas is a trainer I rate very highly, and he couples a sure touch with his plans to a degree of patience.

In former times when analysing the race, I always started with the second-season chasers, and in particular the seven-year-olds and it was scary how big a proportion of winners at the time did fit that profile.

Protektorat, whose skilled handling by the Skeltons brought a wonderful win in the Betfair Chase, by 11 lengths from Eldorado Allen, is that age, but I doubt Dan will want to send him back out even for the chance of £142k. Now there are much bigger fish to fry and maybe at last we have a proper chaser after the time of Kauto Star and Denman to see off the Irish next March.

Sam Thomas was on Denman when he won the 2007 Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup as a seven-year-old and rode him into third two years later. Ruby Walsh got on him for the second win in between. Now as a trainer, down on 10st5lb and a rating of 141 he has Our Power, a comfortable winner at Ascot three weeks ago on his return, from the useful Danny Kirwan.

Victory for him would be a tonic for Sam’s main supporter and Our Power’s part-owner, Dai Walters, who was badly injured recently in a helicopter crash when Thomas was also a passenger. It all has a ring to it. This is one horse that will go to the races and happily stop to drink in the glory.

- TS

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