Posts

Stat of the Day, 22nd August 2020

Friday's pick was...

2.45 York : Yazaman @ 9/2 BOG 6th at 3/1 (Tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, weakened inside final furlong) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.10 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Ben Macdui @ 3/1 BOG

...in the 10-runner, Listed, Julia Graves Roses Stakes for 2yo over 5f on Good ground worth £17,013 to the winner...

Why?...

As is often the case, the race card is our starting point...

...as it shows a 2 yr old with 2 good results (bt by 0.75L at Gr 3 LTO) and a trainer/jockey partnership to keep the right side of. You can see this for yourself, so I won't labour those points, other than to remind you that A/E & IV numbers the further North of 1.00 you can get, the better! This is explained in more detail in our excellent user guide within My Geegeez.

So, what supporting evidence to the pick can I tell you that you might not already know?

Well, we could look at why trainer Kevin Ryan is a featured trainer in another of my unimaginatively-named microsystems (LateSeas2yo), which as you've probably guessed is centred around a group of trainers who do well towards the back end of the season with their "babies". I like to keep my angles' names simple.

To this end, I like to focus on the following : Kevin Ryan + 2yo + Flat + 5f-1m + 11-45 dslr + July-September, which since the 1st July 2016 has produced 57 winners from 220 (25.9% SR) and 180.26pts (+81.9% ROI) of level stakes profit at an A/E of 1.38 and these include of some relevance today...

  • 55/174 (31.6%) for 194.81pts (+112%) in races worth less than £20,000
  • 48/141 (34%) for 209.46pts (+148.6%) in fields of no more than 10 runners
  • 46/100 (46%) for 64.43pts (+64.4%) at odds of 5/1 or shorter
  • 46/171 (26.9%) for 120.24pts (+70.3%) in non-handicaps
  • 39/138 (28.3%) for 129pts (+93.5%) at 11-25 dslr
  • 31/104 (29.8%) for 56.39pts (+54.2%) were placed LTO
  • 20/59 (33.9%) for 120.48pts (+204.2%) with Kevin Stott in the saddle
  • 15/44 (34.1%) for 0.62pts (+1.41%) with LTO runners-up
  • and 9/37 (24.3%) for 26.88pts (+72.7%) here at York

I know that many of you like me to then combine some of the above into a composite angle, but this does dilute the sample size, of course.

However, if we just focus on the first three pieces of data, we find that those sent off at 5/1 or shorter in fields of 10 or fewer runners in races worth less than £20k are 38 from 80 (47.5% SR) for 49.06pts (+61.3% ROI) profit, with Kevin Stott riding 15 winners from 27 (55.6%) for 29.14pts (+107.9%)...

...pointing us towards... a 1pt win bet on Ben Macdui @ 3/1 BOG as was available at 8.05am Saturday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 York

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st August 2020

Thursday's pick was...

4.20 York : Mark of the Man @ 6/1 BOG 6th at 6/1 (Held up in mid-division, not clear run and switched sharply left inside final 2f, 6th and one pace towards finish) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.45 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Yazaman @ 9/2 BOG

...in the 10-runner, Group 2, Gimcrack Stakes for 2yo over 6f on Good to Soft ground worth £56,710 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...that shows a horse running well, for a yard in good recent form and one that has done well at York over the years. Our runner is well placed on the Geegeez SR ratings and I'd say a low draw would be be advantageous today.

Our 2yr old colt has been a runner-up in back to back Gr2 efforts this summer so far and will aim to go one better here and I'd hope/expect that his experiences at this level will stand him in good stead, but it's the trainer's record that I'm basing the bet upon today.

If you click the trainer form button below the horse's name (I've highlighted it in red), you'll see how William Haggas has performed in the last 30 days and also here at York in the last 1 and 5 years, as highlighted by 30, C1 and C5, so I won't insult your intelligence by running you through those numbers, but I will add that...

...here at the Ebor meeting since 2015, William Haggas' runners sent off at odds ranging from 7/4 to 4/1 (where we'll surely end up today) are 8 from 16 (50% SR) for 16.2pts (+101.2% ROI) at an A/E of 1.89 and whilst this is a small-ish sample size, it does include a surprisingly large number of relevant angles at play in today's contest, such as...

  • 7/10 (70%) for 18.06pts (+180.6%) in non-handicaps
  • 7/10 (70%) for 17.6pts (+176%) at 20-45 dslr
  • 6/10 (60%) for 14.75pts (+147.5%) in fields of 7-13 runners
  • 6/9 (66.6%) for 15.97pts (+177.5%) with male runners
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 13.85pts (+173.2%) at Class 1
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 12.51pts (+156.4%) with 2 yr olds
  • 4/5 (80%) for 12.58pts (+251.5%) on Good to Soft ground
  • 3/5 (60%) for 8.52pts (+170.3%) at Gr 2
  • 3/5 (60%) for 7.22pts (+144.5%) over this 6f C&D
  • and 3/3 (100%) for 7.81pts (+260.3%) with LTO runners-up

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Yazaman @ 9/2 BOG as was available at 8.10am Friday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 York

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th August 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

5.20 Stratford : Mon Palois @ 4/1 BOG (2.8/1 after R4) WON at 13/8 (Jumped left but well, made all, 3 lengths ahead when left well clear at the last, eventually winning by 85 lengths) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.20 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Mark of the Man @ 6/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 2, Nursery Handicap for 2yo over 7f on Good to Soft ground worth £18,675 to the winner... 

Why?...

Well, briefly, we have an in-form horse running at a meeting his trainer does well at and who also has a good record with LTO winners racing under familiar circumstances.

Enough for you? I though not, so let me add some meat to those bare bones, starting with the runner himself. A 2 yr old (obviously) colt who comes here on a hat-trick and was last seen winning a similar Class 2, 7 furlong, 12-runner Nursery at Goodwood three weeks ago, where he stayed on well to win by two lengths taking his record to...

  • 2 from 3 over 7f
  • 2 from 3 with Sean Levey on his back
  • 2 from 2 on turf
  • 2 from 2 at 13-30 dslr
  • 1 from 1 in handicaps

His trainer Richard Hannon has enjoyed recent success at the Ebor meeting with his sub-8/1 runners winning 6 of 16 (37.5% SR) contests over the last four festivals returning level stakes profits of 22.88pts at an ROI of 143%, including...

  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 25.88pts (+199.1%) with 2 yr olds
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 25.88pts (+199.1%) in fields of 10+ runners
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 22.25pts (+247.2%) at 16-45 dslr
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 18.06pts (+164.2%) at Class 2
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.42pts (+447.4%) with Sean Levey in the saddle
  • and 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 4.8pts (+160%) last year alone

And more generally with all his sub-8/1 runners since 2016, Mr Hannon's horses who were LTO winners at the same class/trip are 21 from 57 (36.8% SR) for 40.45pts (+71% ROI) when sent back out within 25 days of that last run/win including of relevance today...

  • 19/50 (38%) for 35.75pts (+71.5%) in races worth less than £20k
  • 18/45 (40%) for 43.75pts (+97.2%) on the Flat
  • 15/34 (44.1%) for 41.25pts (+121.3%) during June to August
  • 12/40 (30%) for 14.89pts (+37.2%) in handicaps
  • 9/18 (50%) for 30pts (+166.6%) with 2 yr olds
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 22.5pts (+187.5%) for Sean Levey
  • and 3/7 (42.9%) for 10.56pts (+150.9%) in Nurseries

...whilst on the Flat during June-August in sub-£20k races, they are 11 from 25 (44% SR) for 34.48pts (+137.9% ROI) and these include from above...

  • 5/16 (31.25%) in hcps
  • 5/6 (83.3%) with 2 yo's
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for Sean Levey
  • and 2/2 in Nurseries

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Mark of the Man @ 6/1 BOG (or bigger) as was available at 8.20am Thursday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 York

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th August 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

2.00 Beverley : Saluti @ 7/2 BOG (2.98/1 after a 15p R4) WON at 9/4 (Disputed lead early, tracked leaders, led over 1f out, driven and joined inside final 100 yards, prevailed on the nod to win by a nose) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.20 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Mon Palois @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m7f on Good to Soft ground worth £3,964 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...and an 8 yr old gelding who was third LTO 31 days ago. What the above doesn't say is that he was staying on in the closing stages and now steps up in trip, which could help. He also drops down in class today and wears cheekpieces for the first time.

As shown above, trainer Kim Bailey has done well here at Stratford with a small number of runners, whist the yard's chasers are already 13 from 37 (35.1% SR) for 6.6pts (+17.8% ROI) profit this year, including 13/26 (50%) for 17.6pts (+67.7%) at 5/1 or shorter.

The adoption of cheekpieces interests me too, as one of my saved micro-systems says that handicap chasers sent off at Evens to 14/1 wearing headgear during May to September are 99 from 553 (17.9% SR) for 140.1pts (+25.4% ROI) since 2016 after not wearing any headgear on their previous outing and these include the following of some relevance today...

  •  92/512 (18%) for 124.8pts (+24.4%) for males
  • 72/385 (18.7%) for 116pts (+30.2%) in cheekpieces
  • 68/347 (19.6%) for 136.3pts (+39.4%) at 16-45 dslr
  • 50/256 (19.5%) for 93.7pts (+36.6%) at Class 4
  • 38/210 (18.1%) for 88.5pts (+42.3%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 25/128 (19.5%) for 29.2pts (+22.8%) made the frame LTO
  • 23/111 (20.7%) for 48.7pts (+43.8%) for 8 yr olds
  • 21/99 (21.2%) for 30pts (+30.3%) finished third LTO
  • 19/97 (19.6%) for 16.5pts (+17%) dropping down a class
  • 17/89 (19.1%) for 37.7pts (+42.4%) during August
  • 15/67 (22.4%) for 45.5pts (+67.9%) on Good to Soft ground
  • and 6/26 (23.1%) for 10.6pts (+40.6%) in 2020

...and whilst I don't want to dilute the sample size too much...Class 3/4 males in cheekpieces at 16-45 dslr are 35 from 154 (22.7% SR) for 76.6pts (+49.8% ROI), including 3/5 (60%) for 18.9pts (+378%) this year alone...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Mon Palois @ 4/1 BOG (or bigger) as was available at 8.05am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.20 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th August 2020

Monday's pick was...

2.20 Catterick : Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 5/1 (Led, stayed towards inside with one other in in home straight, ridden and pressed over 1f out, headed entering final furlong, weakened inside final furlong) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Saluti @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Good ground worth £4,690 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, we can take quite a bit of inspiration from the racecard...

Fifth last time out doesn't tell the whole story, drawn on the wrong side of 17 stalls in a Class 2 contest over 6f at Goodwood, he was only beaten by 2.5 lengths and beat all bar one of the nine drawn higher than stall 8 (the 3/1 fav beat him by a short head).

Prior to that, this 6 yr old gelding won a Class 3 handicap over 5f at not too distant Pontefract, so I'd expect the drop to Class 4 to suit him well here.

As you can see above, the trainer does well enough here at Beverley and the trainer/jockey combo has been amongst the winners of late, albeit from a small number of runners.

A quick, deeper look at trainer Paul Midgley's record here at Beverley shows that since the start of 2017, his handicappers sent off at 6/1 or shorter here are 8 from 24 (33.3% SR) for 14.1pts (+58.7% ROI), all incidentally over this 5f track and trip and including...

  • 8/20 (40%) for 18.1pts (+90.5%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 8/13 (61.5%) for 25.1pts (+193%) in fields of 4-10 runners
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 10.65pts (+152.2%) in August
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 2.64pts (+52.8%) with jockey Graham Lee...

...whilst in 4-10 runner contests in August within 25 days of their last run, they are 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 13.65pts (+341.3% ROI), including 2/2 for 5.64pts (+282%) for today's jockey...

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Saluti @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG as was available at 8.10am Tuesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th August 2020

Saturday's pick was...

5.55 Newbury : Songkran @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Slight lead, narrowly headed halfway, in front again 3f out, headed over 1f out, no extra in 3rd inside final furlong) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.20 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

We start, as is usually the case, with the racecard...

This 3 yr old gelding won a similar Class 5, 7f flat handicap two starts and 11 months ago before a 311 day spell on the sidelines. He returned from that long break to finish third over 7.5f at Beverley, when beaten by just a head and a neck in a contest where the write-up says...chased leader, ridden to lead over 1f out, headed and no extra towards finish...

I'd expect him to come on for that run 24 days ago and the slight drop back in trip should also help him see this one out at a track where our report suite suggests that today's trainer and jockey fare well together.

And it's the David O'Meara/Danny Tudhope/Catterick trainer/jockey/course angle that I'll be pursuing today. That recent 50% strike rate is, of course, excellent, but I think we need a few more in our sample size to hang a bet upon, so how about...O'Meara + Tudhope + Catterick + 4/1 & shorter + 2016-now? Which gives us...

from which there has been...

  • 16/34 (47.1%) for 14.97pts (+44%) over trips of 5-7f
  • 16/34 (47.1%) for 12.25pts (+36%) wit 2-4 yr olds
  • 14/28 (50%) for 11.45pts (+40.9%) from July onwards
  • 12/23 (52.2%) for 11.5pts (+50%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 11/23 (47.8%) for 4.19pts (+18.2%) from horses placed LTO
  • 9/12 (75%) for 19.71pts (+164.2%) in fields of 11-15 runners
  • 8/20 (40%) for 5.4pts (+27%) at Class 5
  • and 5 from 8 (62.5%) for 9.26pts (+115.7%) on good to soft ground...

...and a composite angle from the above? Hmmm, OK, how about 2-4 yr olds racing over 5-7f  for less than £4k from July onwards at 7 from 11 (63.6% SR) and 7.03pts (+63.9% ROI) profit? An angle that also includes a 100% strike rate in fields of 11+ runners (4 from 4), 71.4% from runners placed LTO (5 from 7) and 50% strike rates (2 from 4) at class 5 or on good to soft ground...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG as was available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th August 2020

Saturday's pick was...

5.55 Newbury : Songkran @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Slight lead, narrowly headed halfway, in front again 3f out, headed over 1f out, no extra in 3rd inside final furlong) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.20 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

We start, as is usually the case, with the racecard...

This 3 yr old gelding won a similar Class 5, 7f flat handicap two starts and 11 months ago before a 311 day spell on the sidelines. He returned from that long break to finish third over 7.5f at Beverley, when beaten by just a head and a neck in a contest where the write-up says...chased leader, ridden to lead over 1f out, headed and no extra towards finish...

I'd expect him to come on for that run 24 days ago and the slight drop back in trip should also help him see this one out at a track where our report suite suggests that today's trainer and jockey fare well together.

And it's the David O'Meara/Danny Tudhope/Catterick trainer/jockey/course angle that I'll be pursuing today. That recent 50% strike rate is, of course, excellent, but I think we need a few more in our sample size to hang a bet upon, so how about...O'Meara + Tudhope + Catterick + 4/1 & shorter + 2016-now? Which gives us...

from which there has been...

  • 16/34 (47.1%) for 14.97pts (+44%) over trips of 5-7f
  • 16/34 (47.1%) for 12.25pts (+36%) wit 2-4 yr olds
  • 14/28 (50%) for 11.45pts (+40.9%) from July onwards
  • 12/23 (52.2%) for 11.5pts (+50%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 11/23 (47.8%) for 4.19pts (+18.2%) from horses placed LTO
  • 9/12 (75%) for 19.71pts (+164.2%) in fields of 11-15 runners
  • 8/20 (40%) for 5.4pts (+27%) at Class 5
  • and 5 from 8 (62.5%) for 9.26pts (+115.7%) on good to soft ground...

...and a composite angle from the above? Hmmm, OK, how about 2-4 yr olds racing over 5-7f  for less than £4k from July onwards at 7 from 11 (63.6% SR) and 7.03pts (+63.9% ROI) profit? An angle that also includes a 100% strike rate in fields of 11+ runners (4 from 4), 71.4% from runners placed LTO (5 from 7) and 50% strike rates (2 from 4) at class 5 or on good to soft ground...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG as was available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 10th to 15th August 2020

A brutally honest assessment of the week was that it was dreadful.

The only positive I can find about a sequence of results reading 875443 is that they did at least improve as the week went on, but that's about it.

To mix a few sporting metaphors, it's now half-time for August and we're behind the 8-ball. Strike rate is below par, we're almost 5pts down and we need to hope it's a game of two halves.

All is not lost, however, we've plenty of opportunities ahead of us, starting tomorrow.

Chris

Selections & Results : 10/08/20 to 15/08/20

10/08 : Power of States @ 4/1 BOG 8th at 9/2
11/08 : Shesaheart @ 4/1 BOG 7th at 5/1
12/08 : Rousayan @ 12/1 BOG 5th at 9/1
13/08 : Tell William @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 9/4
14/08 : Bossipop @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 9/2
15/08 : Songkran @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 4/1

10/08/20 to 15/08/20 :
0 winning bets from 6 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -6.00pts

August 2020 :
2 winners from 13 = 15.38% SR
P/L: -4.67pts
ROI = -35.92%

2020 to date :
23 winners from 124 = 18.54% SR
P/L: +6.03pts
ROI = +4.86%

Overall:
679 winners from 2589 = 26.22% S.R
P/L: +537.90pts
ROI: +20.77%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is
here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are
now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 15th August 2020

Friday's pick was...

3.40 Chester : Bossipop @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 9/2 (Raced wide in touch, pushed along over 1f out, ridden and ran on towards finish, not reach leaders) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

5.55 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Songkran @ 4/1 or 7/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, Amateur Jockeys Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Good To Soft, ground worth £4,523 to the winner...

Why?...

Starting with the racecard and trainer snippets...

and then the Shortlist report gives us three angles of attack today...

So let's start with horse, who is clearly in prime form and seeks a fifth win on the bounce, the Shortlist says he's good at this class, distance and field size, so let's look at his numbers in other areas...

To date, Songkran is 5/12 (41.7% SR) for 7.86pts (+65.5% ROI) and these include of relevance today...

  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 10.86pts (+120.6%) at sub-5/1 odds
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 11.86pts (+148.2%) in races worth less than £5k
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 5.38pts (+59.8%) on the Flat
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 5.38pts (+59.8%) in handicaps
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 7.38pts (+105.5%) going left handed
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 8.38pts (+139.7%) after less than 18 days rest
  • 4/5 (80%) for 9.38pts (+187.7%) for trainer George Boughey
  • 4/5 (80%) for 9.38pts (+187.7%) this year
  • and 3/4 (75%) for 8.43pts (+210.8%) after a win LTO

And now to the trainer, George Boughey, who has the 14 & 30 icons next to his name, suggesting he's got his yard in decent nick. Closer inspection of his strike rates show a consistent 24% to 26% ratio at 7, 14, 30, 60, 90 and 180 day checkpoints, so his recent form is no flash in the pan.

George might not be as high profile as some other trainers, but he's one to keep an eye on, I think as his decent strike rates have yielded good profits, as he is 16 from 54 (29.6% SR) for 75.8pts (+140.4% ROI) this year at an A/E of 1.58 and an IV above 2.60, including of note today...

  • 12/36 (33.3%) for 38.1pts (+105.8%) with male runners
  • 12/34 (35.3%) for 25.5pts (+75%) at 6-45 dslr
  • 11/35 (31.4%) for 32pts (+91.5%) in handicaps
  • 8/25 (32%) for 41.5pts (+165.9%) on the Flat (but not shabby on the A/W either)
  • 7/13 (53.9%) for 17.6pts (+135.2%) from LTO winners
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 21.8pts (+168%) with 4 yr olds
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 19.7pts (+151.5%) in 12-14 runner contests
  • 2/7 (28.6%) for 3pts (+43.4%) so far this month
  • and 1/2 (50%) for 0.12pts (+6%) here at Newbury...

...whilst male handicappers at 6-30 dslr are 8 from 16 (50% SR) for 24.1pts (+150.5% ROI) including 5/7 (71.4%) for 9.5pts (+135.8%) on the Flat...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Songkran @ 4/1 or 7/2 BOG as was available at 8.55am Saturday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.55 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th August 2020

Thursday's pick was...

4.25 Bath : Tell William @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 9/4 (Close up, ridden and every chance over 1f out, kept on same pace) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Bossipop @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4,  Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Good To Soft, ground worth £5,984 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which primarily tells me that Tim Easterby is a trainer to follow in handicaps here at Chester with a 1 in 6 record backed blindly over the last three seasons prior to this one. My starting point for trainer/course angles is always last three seasons / 15%+ SR / AE of 1.25+ and IV of 1.50+.

Moreover, since the start of 2016, Tim's Chester handicappers sent off at 2/1 to 17/2 are 15 from 48 (31.25% SR) for 52.35pts (+109.1% ROI) at an A/E of 1.87 and an IV of 3.11, including of relevance today...

  • 10/29 (34.5%) for 32.3pts (+111.4%) in races worth less than £10,000
  • 9/27 (33.3%) for 34.92pts (+129.3%) in 3yo+ handicaps
  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 26.25pts (+109.4%) at Class 4
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 33.18pts (+150.8%) with runners unplaced LTO
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 27.45pts (+130.7%) over 5 to 6 furlongs
  •  5/7 (71.4%) for 25.04pts (+357.7%) on Good to Soft ground
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 13.28pts (+94.8%) for jockey David Allan
  • and 3 from 8 (37.5%) for 11.42pts (+142.7%) over this 5f course and distance...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Bossipop @ 7/2 BOG as was available at 8.10am Thursday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th August 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

2.10 Beverley : Rousayan @ 12/1 BOG 5th at 9/1 (Switched right start, held up in rear, kept on final furlong, never going pace to reach leaders) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.25 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tell William @ 11/4 or 5/2 BOG

...in an 7-runner, Class 4,  Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1, on Firm ground worth £4,690 to the winner... 

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?...

As ever, the racecard is a mine of information (ignore the odds, we don't carry enough firms' prices for that to be totally accurate)...

...and the above data is what I'm hanging today's bet on with a 4yr old gelding who won over a mile at Newbury LTO 26 days ago and whose form includes finishes of...

  • 124421 in his last 6 starts
  • 12441 in blinkers
  • 39121 in July/August
  • 1221 over a mile
  • 1242 going left handed
  • 312 in fields of 7 or fewer runners
  • 122 here at Bath
  • 122 over course and distance

The reports above are a great way into analysing the stats available to help you form a bet and they are good enough to carry your selection(s), but I'm going to try and add a little meat to the bare bones of those numbers, as follows...

Jockey Hayley Turner's 5 yr record at Bath of 6/28 is actually 6 from 26 (23.1% SR) for 25.53pts (+98.2% ROI) over the last two seasons, including...

  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 10.24pts (+64%) in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 5/10 (50%) for 16.24pts (+162.4%) at odds of 7/1 and shorter
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 8.74pts (+67.2%) on Firm ground
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 6.19pts (+206.4%) on horses trained by Marcus Tregoning...

...whilst she is 4 from 7 (57.1% SR) for 14.74pts (+210.5% ROI) at 7/1 and shorter in fields of 5-10 runners on Firm ground, including that 2 from 3 as above for Marcus Tregoning...

...who, as indicated by the 30 on the racecard and the corresponding 30-day report, is in decent form of late and it's also worth knowing (IMO) that since racing came out of enforced hibernation, his milers are 5 from 11 (45.5% SR) for 11.33pts (+13% ROI) with those sent off shorter than 4/1 winning 4 of 5.

Marcus is, as you've seen above, 12 from 42 at Bath over 5 years, indicated by the C5 and the subsequent report, but it doesn't tell you that more recently, he was 6/17 (35.3% SR) for 15pts (+88.2% ROI) at this venue last season, including 5 from 11 (45.5%) for 14.87pts (+135.2%) in fields of 5-8 runners.

And the last of the reports above is the LTO winner snippet. Closer inspection shows Marcus' LTO winners are 20 from 65 (30.8) for 57.93pts (+89.1% ROI) since the start of 2017 with those returning from a break of 11 to 45 days winning 18 of 45 (40%) for huge profits of 69.07pts (+153.5%).

The final piece of the racecard jigsaw from above is the top ranking of the Geegeez Speed Ratings (speed rating is a bit of a misnomer really, as it's more a neural rating than pure speed) and our runner's position at the head of those ratings is pretty self explanatory.

All the above suggest we should be there or thereabouts today. I had a look at the pace/draw and you want to be drawn low (we're in stall 2) and you preferably need to get on with it. Our runner seems to have two styles, held back (pace score 1) or running prominently (pace 3).

Pace score 3 is what we'd like to see today and the pace tab suggests that one horse might be a lone front runner. If that's the case, that could help us as the pace looks like it's coming from stall 1 and we could get a decent tow from the leader. Should that all pan out for us...

...we'll be well placed with... a 1pt win bet on Tell William @ 11/4 or 5/2 BOG as was available at 8.00am Thursday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.25 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th August 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

2.40 Wolverhampton : Shesaheart @ 4/1 BOG 7th at 5/1 (Restless in stalls, chased leaders, pushed along before halfway, ridden 2f out, weakened soon after) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2.10 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Your first 30 days for just £1

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rousayan @ 12/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 4,  Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good To Firm worth £4,690 to the winner... 

Why?...

Well, when I think racing is poor (and it is today), I try to look a bit further down the market for something that should represent some value and give us a run for our money and I expect both to happen here with an experienced runner whose best runs have come on the Flat where he has won six of fifty-four at a reasonable if not earth-shattering 11.11% SR, but it's how he has got those six wins that is of interest today, as he is...

  • 6/40 (15%) for 4pts (+10%) over 7½f to 8½f
  • 6/25 (24%) for 17pts (+68%) off a mark (OR) of 75-86
  • 5/31 (16.1%) for 3.42pts (+11%) at 4-25 dslr
  • 5/26 (19.2%) for 11.55pts (+44.4%) going right handed
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 20.17pts (+106.2%) at Class 4
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 18.53pts (+142.6%) on Good to Firm ground
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.87pts (+89.8%) here at Beverley
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.87pts (+89.8%) here at Beverley over 7½f to 8½f
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 4.41pts (+73.5%) over this course and distance.

Things didn't go his way LTO at York over a mile at Class 3, but he now takes a drop in both class and trip to run here, where he was a runner-up two starts ago at this class, course, distance and OR mark of 86. He was only beaten by half a length on that occasion and his cause today should be helped by the booking of 7lb claimer Tyler Heard in the saddle.

Taking 7lbs off is only really useful, if the jockey him/herself brings something to the table and Tyler appears to have something about him judged off his start to life in the saddle, where he is currently 5 from 32 (15.6% SR) for 26.12pts (+81.6% ROI) profit with his 7lb claim, including...

  • 4/18 (22.2%) for 34.09pts (+189.4%) on the Flat
  • 4/16 (25%) for 36.09pts (+225.6%) in the last 28 days
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 36.25pts (+329.6%) on Good to Firm ground
  • and 3/10 (30%) for 37.25pts (+372.5%) over the last four weeks on good to firm flat ground.

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Rousayan @ 12/1 BOG as was quite widely available (inc several BOGs) at 8.05am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th August 2020

Monday's pick was...

7.30 Chester : Power of States @ 4/1 BOG 8th at 9/2 (Raced keenly in mid-division, no real headway when switched sharply left entering final furlong) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.40 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Your first 30 days for just £1

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shesaheart @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 6f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

Going to keep it short and hopefully sweet today with a filly who finished second last time out at Class 5 to a colt who had previously run in the Gr 2 Coventry at Ascot. She now drops another grade, but is burdened with top weight of 9st 12lbs off a mark (OR) of 62 here today, based on that last run.

There are differing opinions about having to carry more weight than other juveniles, but the stats tell me that since the start of 2015, top weighted horses in Wolverhampton nurseries are 29 from 126 (23% SR) for 76.2pts (+60.2% ROI) profit when carrying 9st 7lbs or more off a mark of 60-85 and these include...

  • 24/114 (21%) for 66pts (+57.9%) on races worth £2k-4k
  • 16/74 (21.6%) for 64.7pts (+87.4%) in fields of 9-11 runners
  • 15/72 (20.8%) for 60.8pts (+84.4%) at Class 6
  • 12/39 (30.8%) for 53.8pts (+138%) on handicap debut
  • 11/46 (23.9%) for 53.6pts (+116.4%) dropping down a class
  • and 5/13 (38.5%) for 23.6pts (+181.6%) during July & August...

...whilst in 9-11 runner, Class 6 contests worth £2k-4k, they are 11/43 (25.6% SR) for 59.9pts (+139.2% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shesaheart @ 4/1 BOG as was quite widely available (inc several BOGs) at 8.15am Tuesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th August 2020

Saturday's pick was...

3.35 Ascot : Jeremiah @ 13/2 BOG 8th at 10/3 (Raced keenly towards rear, bit closer in mid-division on inside halfway, not clear run and switched left inside final 2f, ridden and stayed on late, never going pace to get involved) - We smashed the SP, but never got a run for our money. I rarely criticise jockeys, but I thought this was a poor ride.

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.30 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Power of States @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2½f on Good ground worth £7,763 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding was fourth last time out at Ascot 16 days ago and now takes a drop in both class and trip to run here, whilst the winner of that Ascot race stepped up a class to beat our pick on Saturday.

The drop in class was what caught my eye here, as I'm always interested in Hugo Palmer's handicappers dropping down a level, as those sent off at 14/1 or shorter since the start of 2017 are 27 from 117 (23.1% SR) for 64.25pts at a decent ROI of 54.92%.

And that's if you backed all of them! We don't, generally, so what filters can we apply to make our betting more efficient? Well, of those 117 class droppers, there are...

  • 24/89 (27%) for 82.8pts (93.1%) in fields of 8-15 runners
  • 23/90 (25.6%) for 53.6pts (+59.6%) from male runners
  • 22/96 (22.9%) for 66.7pts (+69.4%) with runners unplaced LTO
  • 15/66 (22.7%) for 47.2pts (+71.2%) on the Flat
  • 15/62 (24.2%) for 28.1pts (+45.3%) at 11-25 days since their last run
  • 7/20 (35%) for 24.2pts (+121%) dropping down in trip by 1 to 2½f
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 16.7pts (+79.7%) over trips of 1m2f to 1m2½f
  • and 6/21 (28.6%) for 18.4pts (+87.8%) with James Doyle in the saddle....

...whilst males who failed to make the frame LTO are 16 from 58 (27.6% SR) for 59.4pts (+102.4% ROI) in fields of 8-15 runners, providing us with over 92% of our original profit from less than 50% of the bets.

This horse is also Hugo's only runner at the meeting tonight, which is also of interest, as since the start of 2016, his record at Evens to 9/1 with solo entrants stands at 71/279 (25.5% SR) for 95pts (+34.1% ROI) in handicaps, including of relevance this evening...

  • 63/224 (28.1%) for 111.8pts (+49.9%) with those off the track for more than 15 days
  • 39/149 (26.2%) for 81.8pts (+54.9%) from those unplaced LTO

...whilst those racing after a 15+ day absence since an unplaced finish LTO are 33 from 123 (26.8%) for 77.4pts (+62.9%), including 10 from 33 (30.3%) for 25.4pts (+76.8%) from those dropping down a class...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Power of States @ 4/1 BOG as was quite widely available (inc several BOGs) at 8.00 am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th August 2020

Saturday's pick was...

3.35 Ascot : Jeremiah @ 13/2 BOG 8th at 10/3 (Raced keenly towards rear, bit closer in mid-division on inside halfway, not clear run and switched left inside final 2f, ridden and stayed on late, never going pace to get involved) - We smashed the SP, but never got a run for our money. I rarely criticise jockeys, but I thought this was a poor ride.

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.30 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Power of States @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2½f on Good ground worth £7,763 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding was fourth last time out at Ascot 16 days ago and now takes a drop in both class and trip to run here, whilst the winner of that Ascot race stepped up a class to beat our pick on Saturday.

The drop in class was what caught my eye here, as I'm always interested in Hugo Palmer's handicappers dropping down a level, as those sent off at 14/1 or shorter since the start of 2017 are 27 from 117 (23.1% SR) for 64.25pts at a decent ROI of 54.92%.

And that's if you backed all of them! We don't, generally, so what filters can we apply to make our betting more efficient? Well, of those 117 class droppers, there are...

  • 24/89 (27%) for 82.8pts (93.1%) in fields of 8-15 runners
  • 23/90 (25.6%) for 53.6pts (+59.6%) from male runners
  • 22/96 (22.9%) for 66.7pts (+69.4%) with runners unplaced LTO
  • 15/66 (22.7%) for 47.2pts (+71.2%) on the Flat
  • 15/62 (24.2%) for 28.1pts (+45.3%) at 11-25 days since their last run
  • 7/20 (35%) for 24.2pts (+121%) dropping down in trip by 1 to 2½f
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 16.7pts (+79.7%) over trips of 1m2f to 1m2½f
  • and 6/21 (28.6%) for 18.4pts (+87.8%) with James Doyle in the saddle....

...whilst males who failed to make the frame LTO are 16 from 58 (27.6% SR) for 59.4pts (+102.4% ROI) in fields of 8-15 runners, providing us with over 92% of our original profit from less than 50% of the bets.

This horse is also Hugo's only runner at the meeting tonight, which is also of interest, as since the start of 2016, his record at Evens to 9/1 with solo entrants stands at 71/279 (25.5% SR) for 95pts (+34.1% ROI) in handicaps, including of relevance this evening...

  • 63/224 (28.1%) for 111.8pts (+49.9%) with those off the track for more than 15 days
  • 39/149 (26.2%) for 81.8pts (+54.9%) from those unplaced LTO

...whilst those racing after a 15+ day absence since an unplaced finish LTO are 33 from 123 (26.8%) for 77.4pts (+62.9%), including 10 from 33 (30.3%) for 25.4pts (+76.8%) from those dropping down a class...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Power of States @ 4/1 BOG as was quite widely available (inc several BOGs) at 8.00 am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!