Posts

Stat of the Day, 17th September 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

4.50 Yarmouth : Dashing Roger @ 4/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (Prominent, ridden to lead entering final furlong, ran on to win by 3/4 length)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glasses Up @ 11/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 12-runner, Class 2, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Soft ground worth £11,828 to the winner...

Why?...

As is most often the case, the racecard is our entry point...

...telling us we have a track specialist, ridden by an in-form jockey, Danny Tudhope, who also has a good record at this venue over a sustained period of time. The second pointer from the card is Geegeez Speed Rating of 94, which is the best in this field today, as seen below...

To assess the Horse for Courses report's relevance properly, I want to compare the horse's excellent overall record of...

...with how this 5 yr old gelding has fared over today's course and distance, and of his 6 from 17 record here at Ayr, when racing over this 10 furlong trip, he is an impressive...

from which he is...

  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 37.75pts (+314.6%) in 3yo+ contests
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 41.75pts (+521.9%) at 8-16 dslr
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.75pts (+88.6%) in handicaps
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 14.75pts (+245.8%) at 5/2 to 15/2
  • 2/5 (40%) for 6.00pts (+120%) stepping up a class
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 8.00pts (+266.7%) in 2020

...whilst when sent of at 5/2 to 15/2 in 3yo+ handicaps over this track and trip at 8-16 since he last ran, he is 4 from 5 (80% SR) for 15.75pts (+315% ROI), including...

  • 2 from 2 (100%) for 9.00pts (+450%) stepping up a class
  • 2 from 2 (100%) for 9.00pts (+450%) in 2020
  • and 1 from 1 (100%) for 4.00pts (+400%) stepping up a class in 2020...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Glasses Up @ 11/2 BOG as was widely available at 7.30am Thursday (bigger in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 16th September 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

6.40 Kempton : Charlie Arthur @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Led over 1f, soon steadied in 3rd, pushed along over 2f out, went 2nd again entering final furlong, soon every chance, no extra and well held when edged left final 100 yards)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.50 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dashing Roger @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m on Good To Firm ground worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

Your first 30 days for just £1

As ever the Geegeez racecard and report suite provide a stack of information, starting with the card itself...

...and then our ratings...

...before heading over to check the Shortlist (win)...

... and the Shortlist (place)...

...which lead us back to the card and the Instant Expert tab set to win...

...and then its place variant...

All of which combine to form a fairly compelling case for a horse suited by conditions, hailing from an in-form yard that has done well here at Yarmouth in the past. I don't want to add too much to the above for fear of information overload, but to just add a little meat to those bones, I'd say...

...that the horse has won 2 of 11 starts, but both wins have come from just two attempts in 8-10 runner handicaps over 7f/1m of a mark in the 70's this year, within 2 to 5 weeks of his last run, all of which are in situ today.

I'd also like to briefly touch on trainer William Stone's record here at Yarmouth highlighted by the C1 and C5 icons. I won't go into the actual 1yr and 5yr data with you, because you can click the trainer icon on the card to see those instantly, but what I do want to show you is a quick direct comparison between William's overall record of...

...which isn't much to shout about if we're honest, but since the start of 2019, his 2-5 yr olds in 8-11 runner handicaps during June-October here at Yarmouth have finished 411112 with the latest qualifier only beaten by a nose here 17 days ago. Stat-wise, those six runners are...

...and I think that's where I'll leave this for today...

...leaving us with... a 1pt win bet on Dashing Roger @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 7.40am Wednesday (bigger in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 15th September 2020

Monday's pick was...

6.20 Wolverhampton : Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG (6.375/1 after a 15p R4) WON at 7/1 (Tracked leader, pushed along 2f out, ridden to lead entering final furlong, all out to win by a nose) - nice to get the right side of a tight finish for a change 😉

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

6.40 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Charlie Arthur @ 3/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in an 8-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the racecard, as is often the case...

...which tells us that our 4 yr old is well clear on the Geegeez ratings and was a runner-up last time out 11 days ago. he was a little unlucky to be caught very late on and beaten by a neck at this class, course and distance by a Kempton specialist dropping in class. 3lb claimer Finley Marsh retains the ride today and will seek to improve upon a decent 4 wins and 3 places from 9 starts on this horse on the A/W to date.

As you can see above, Finley has 2 wins and 3 other places from 10 for trainer Richard Hughes at this venue, whilst the bigger picture for the trainer/jockey combo is that in all A/W handicaps since the start of 2017, they are...

and they include the following ten angles of relevance today...

  • 16/54 (29.6%) for 36.8pts (+68.1%) in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 15/65 (23.1%) for 54.6pts (+84%) from male runners
  • 15/55 (27.3%) for 61.8pts (+112.4%) at Class 5/6
  • 14/53 (26.4%) for 57.9pts (+109.2%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 13/49 (26.5%) for 35.4pts (+72.3%) when Finley has claimed 3lbs
  • 10/29 (34.5%) for 12.3pts (+42.6%) on horses placed LTO
  • 9/45 (20%) for 35.1pts (+77.9%) on Polytrack
  • 8/28 (28.6%) for 54.5pts (+194.6%) in 3yo+ handicaps
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 58.1pts (+341.8%) in August/September
  • and 5 from 13 (38.5%) for 11.1pts (+85.4%) in 2020 so far...

...whilst when Finley has claimed 3lbs on a Richard Hughes-trained male A/W handicapper in a 6-11 runner, Class 5/6 contest worth less than £5200, they are...

..including 5 winners from 6 (83.3% SR) for 14.1pts (+235.1% ROI) with horses who made the frame last time out.

As for Richard Hughes' record with stayers, a closer inspection of his overall numbers reveals that since the start of 2018, his handicappers racing over 1m3.5f to 2m0.5f sent off at evens to 10/1 are...

...and these include...

  • 16/67 (23.9%) for 44.5pts (+66.5%) in fields of 5-13 runners
  • 16/59 (27.1%) for 52.5pts (+89.1%) from those beaten LTO
  • 11/45 (24.4%) for 40.1pts (+89.2%) over 1m3.5f-1m4f
  • 10/36 (27.8%) for 27.5pts (+76.4%) on the A/W
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 13pts (+38.1%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 6/25 (24%) for 8pts (+32%) on Polytrack
  • 6/24 (25%) for 28pts (+116.7%) in 3yo+ handicaps
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 19.3pts (+128.7%) during September/October
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 11.9pts (+98.8%) at Class 5
  • 3/13 (23.1%) for 9.9pts (+76%) for Finley Marsh
  • and 3 from 12 (25%) for 7.8pts (+65.2%) in 2020 so far

...steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on Charlie Arthur @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Tuesday (bigger in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.40 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.35 Musselburgh : Amazing Alba @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 3/1 (Towards rear, headway 2f out, not clear run over 1f out, soon no impression)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which shows a 6yr old former course and distance winner dropping in class today, set to be ridden by a 5lb claimer. He's also in the top three of our own ratings and his trainer is one of my group to look out for here at Wolverhampton.

Closer analysis of those facts show that this runner has won five times at this track and is now 3lbs better off than his last win here back in January, whilst all five course wins have come under the following broad criteria that are in place today...2018-20 / handicaps / 7f-8.5f / OR of 54-74 and sent off in the 3/1 to 14/1 range. When those have combined, he is...

Jockey Ray Dawson might be a 5lb claimer, but with over 540 rides under his belt, he's no stranger to the saddle and has been in good nick of late winning 9 of 54 (16.7% SR) over the past month returning Betfair SP profits of 41.15pts at an ROI of some 76.2% and since 2018 in Wolverhampton handicaps over 6f to 1m4f at odds of 14/1 and shorter, he is...

And finally to trainer David Loughnane's record here at Wolverhampton. He's actually one of a dozen trainers I keep an eye out for at this venue and in David's case, the runners that interest me the most are those handicappers sent off at odds of 3/1 and bigger over trips of 7f to 1m4f, because since the start of 2018, they are...

...with a near 1 in 6 strike rate generating profits beyond 76p in the pound, including of note today...

  • 18/95 (19%) for 86.3pts (+90.8%) at odds of 5/1 to 16/1
  • 16/102 (15.7%) for 104.2pts (+102.2%) were unplaced LTO
  • 14/78 (18%) for 70.7pts (+90.6%) during August to December
  • 7/39 (18%) for 30.7pts (+78.6%) over this course and distance
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 78.3pts (+279.7%) with a jockey claiming 5/7 lbs

...whilst horses unplaced LTO sent off at 5/1 to 16/1 during August to December are 11/38 (29% SR) for 81.9pts (+215.6% ROI) with 5lb claimers riding 3 winners from 8 (37.5%) for 25.1pts (+314.3%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday (up to 9/1 in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.35 Musselburgh : Amazing Alba @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 3/1 (Towards rear, headway 2f out, not clear run over 1f out, soon no impression)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which shows a 6yr old former course and distance winner dropping in class today, set to be ridden by a 5lb claimer. He's also in the top three of our own ratings and his trainer is one of my group to look out for here at Wolverhampton.

Closer analysis of those facts show that this runner has won five times at this track and is now 3lbs better off than his last win here back in January, whilst all five course wins have come under the following broad criteria that are in place today...2018-20 / handicaps / 7f-8.5f / OR of 54-74 and sent off in the 3/1 to 14/1 range. When those have combined, he is...

Jockey Ray Dawson might be a 5lb claimer, but with over 540 rides under his belt, he's no stranger to the saddle and has been in good nick of late winning 9 of 54 (16.7% SR) over the past month returning Betfair SP profits of 41.15pts at an ROI of some 76.2% and since 2018 in Wolverhampton handicaps over 6f to 1m4f at odds of 14/1 and shorter, he is...

And finally to trainer David Loughnane's record here at Wolverhampton. He's actually one of a dozen trainers I keep an eye out for at this venue and in David's case, the runners that interest me the most are those handicappers sent off at odds of 3/1 and bigger over trips of 7f to 1m4f, because since the start of 2018, they are...

...with a near 1 in 6 strike rate generating profits beyond 76p in the pound, including of note today...

  • 18/95 (19%) for 86.3pts (+90.8%) at odds of 5/1 to 16/1
  • 16/102 (15.7%) for 104.2pts (+102.2%) were unplaced LTO
  • 14/78 (18%) for 70.7pts (+90.6%) during August to December
  • 7/39 (18%) for 30.7pts (+78.6%) over this course and distance
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 78.3pts (+279.7%) with a jockey claiming 5/7 lbs

...whilst horses unplaced LTO sent off at 5/1 to 16/1 during August to December are 11/38 (29% SR) for 81.9pts (+215.6% ROI) with 5lb claimers riding 3 winners from 8 (37.5%) for 25.1pts (+314.3%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday (up to 9/1 in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 7th to 12th September 2020

Well, what a week that was. And not in a good way, I'm afraid. Two placers from five is pretty poor going and only one runner actually looked like winning which just isn't good enough for our purposes.

I should clarify, I suppose. SotD is NOT a tipping service per se, but more of a way of finding a way into a race via stats and more importantly the Geegeez racecards. The aim is to find a runner that will perform better than the price available would suggest it will and by the large we've done that over the past 9 years or so.

However, we're here and it's now and the current status is that September is proving to be a struggle for me, as was July & August. I know in my heart that it won't continue forever and we'll be back amongst the winners in due course, but the bare facts are that all of 2020's profit has disappeared now and in mid-September, we're back to square one.

I'm down, but not yet beaten and I'll be picking myself up to go again tomorrow. Hopefully you'll be with me.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Chris

Selections & Results : 07/09/20 to 12/09/20

07/09 : Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG non-runner
08/09 : Cotton End @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 7/2 
09/09 : Gold Arch @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1
10/09 : Under Curfew @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 9/2
11/09 : Julie Johnston @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 5/1
12/09 : Amazing Alba @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 3/1

07/09/20 to 12/09/20 :
0 winning bet from 5 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -5.00pts

September 2020 :
1 winner from 10 = 10.00% SR
P/L: -6.50pts
ROI = -65.00%

2020 to date :
27 winners from 147 = 18.37% SR
P/L: +0.31pts
ROI = +0.21%

Overall:
683 winners from 2611 = 26.16% SR
P/L: +532.18pts
ROI: +20.38%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is
here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are
now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 12th September 2020

Friday's pick was...

5.00 Salisbury : Julie Johnston @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 5/1 (Went left start, soon led, ridden over 1f out, headed entering final furlong weakened inside final furlong)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.35 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Amazing Alba @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5,  Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

More on this very shortly...

This 4 yr old filly is clearly in great form and her excellent record here at Musselburgh of 2 wins and 4 further places from 8 starts are all over today's 5f trip and her form over the eight races reads 32320211, including 211 since lockdown and she's one from one under today's jockey David Nolan who was aboard last time out.

Trainer Alistair Whillans does well after sending runners back out fairly quickly after making the frame in a bid to strike whilst the iron is hot and since 2016, his Flat handicappers reappearing within 25 days of a top 3 finish are 16 from 98 (16.33% SR) for 17.01pts (+17.36% ROI), including of note/relevance today...

  • 13/54 (24.1%) for 16.55pts (+30.7%) at odds of 6/4 to 7/1
  • 11/56 (19.6%) for 29.05pts (+51.9%) at Class 5/6
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 28.32pts (+108.9%) on Good to Firm ground
  • and 7/23 (30.4%) for 8.99pts (+39.1%) at 3-10 dslr

...whilst at Class 5/5 on Good/Good to Firm at 6/4 to 7/1, they are 7/22 (31.8% SR) for 19.08pts (+86.7%), giving us 112% of the original profit from just 22% of the runners.

Meanwhile, over the same 2016-20 timeframe, the Flat course at Musselburgh has been a happy hunting ground for LTO C&D winners in general with 23 of 76 (30.26% SR) managing to "double up", generating 50.64pts profit at an ROI of 66.6% with the following angles at play today...

  • 20/56 (35.7%) for 52.4pts (+93.6%) on Good/Good to Firm
  • 19/57 (33.3%) for 45.9pts (+80.6%) after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 19/45 (42.2%) for 40.8pts (+90.7%) at odds of 13/8 to 5/1
  • 18/42 (42.9%) for 46.2pts (+110%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 10/29 (34.5%) for 27pts (+93%) from female runners
  • 9/34 (26.5%) for 21.9pts (+64.4%) over this 5f C&D
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 13pts (+100%) for 4 yr olds
  • and 5/8 (62.5%) for 27pts (+337.5%) in 2020

...whilst those sent off at 13/8 to 5/1 in races worth less than £4k on Good/Good to Firm ground lees than three weeks since their LTO C&D win are 11 from 18 (61.1% SR) for 31.8pts (+176.6% ROI) and they include...

  • 6/9 (66.6%) for 17pts (+188.4%) from 4 yr olds
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 13pts (+185.1%) from females
  • and 3 from 3 (100%) for 11.6pts (+386.7%) this year...

...and each of those C&D LTO stats applied to Amazing Alba's run/win six days ago too! All of which...

...had led me towards... a 1pt win bet on Amazing Alba @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Saturday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.35 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th September 2020

Thursday's pick was...

3.25 Chepstow : Under Curfew @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Raced keenly, chased leaders in centre, led over 1f out, headed close home, lost 2nd at post)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.00 Salisbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Julie Johnston @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 3,  Flat Handicap Nursery for 2yo fillies over 6f on Good ground worth £9,704 to the winner...

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?...

We start with the unique Geegeez interactive racecard...

...and a 2 yr old filly (obviously) who has won twice and placed twice in her five outings beyond 5 furlongs, only failing to make the frame on a three-length defeat at a higher grade at Goodwood six weeks ago. She's 1152 at 6f, has a win and a place from two good ground runs, is 131 at 7-28 days rest and tops the Geegeez Speed ratings today.

Jockey Jack Mitchell's 12-month record here at Salisbury is shown above, whilst over the last 16 months, his numbers here are...

including of relevance today...

  • 7/25 (28%) for 15.94pts (+63.8%) in races worth less than £10k
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 2.35pts (+18%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 4/12 933.3%) for 15.81pts (+131.7%) on 2 yr olds
  • and 3/13 (23.1%) for 22.59pts (+173.8%) on female runners...

...whilst trainer Mark Johnston is also no slouch around this neck of the woods either. He doesn't actually send many runners here, but they do well enough for at least a second glance, as since 2014, they are...

with a near 1 in 6 strike rate producing a yield just shy of 10%. A satisfactory return for a long-term investment, I suppose, but it's not sexy or exciting, is it? So where should we focus our Johnston/Salisbury betting, Chris?

Well, you could stick to 2 year olds running at Classes 1 to 3, sent off at Evens to 16/1, who are...

...which almost doubles our strike rate, multiplies our profit more than fives times over and also includes of note today...

  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 30.18pts (+232.2%) in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 12.09pts (+172.7%) were placed LTO
  • 2/7 (28.6%) for 22.46pts (+320.9%) at Class 3
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 20.65pts (+344.2%) over this 6f C&D...

...whilst in fields of 5-10 runners, horses who made the frame LTO are also 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 12.09pts (+172.7% ROI), including a win and a place from two Class 3 efforts and a win and a place from two over this 6f C&D...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Julie Johnston @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 7.45am Friday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Salisbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th September 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

7.15 Wolverhampton : Gold Arch @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Slowly into stride, held up, headway and switched right over 2f out, soon edged left, kept on inside final furlong, no impression on winner) - allowed winner too much of a soft lead IMO.

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.25 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Under Curfew @ 9/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 14-runner, Class 6,  Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good ground worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

More on this after the school run...

So, we have a 4 yr old who is joint top on our own ratings, who won last time out (8 days ago) and comes from a yard with a good recent record at this venue.

In fact, this one has been in consistently good form for some time, he won on the last day of February and then returned to the track post-lockdown in early June and has finished 2242261 since, culminating in a win over 5.5 furlongs at Bath last week in another Class 6 handicap under today's jockey and off the same mark as today.

The big field shouldn't bother him, as 13 ran in that Bath contest, whilst I'm sure an extra 100 or so yards will be fine, based on the report from LTO, which reads...midfield, stumbled slightly 3f out, ridden and headway over 1f out, led just inside final furlong, ran on to win by half a length.

The racecard screenshot above also points to trainer Tony Carroll's 12-month record here at Chepstow, so I won't repeat those numbers, but I would suggest focusing on those handicappers sent off at odds of 10/3 to 10/1, as since the start of 2017, they are...

and this includes of relevance today...

  • 10/42 (23.8%) for 34.73pts (+82.7%) on the Flat
  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 42.73pts (+125.7%) off marks of 54 to 74
  • 9/28 (32.1%) for 43.23pts (+154.4%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 6/20 (30%) for 16.38pts (+81.9%) at Class 6
  • 5/22 (22.7%) for 24.8pts (+112.7%) in 3yo+ handicaps
  • 4/19 (21.1%) for 8.05pts (+42.4%) on Good ground
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 8.33pts (+55.6%) were placed LTO
  • and 4/11 (36.4%) for 13.38pts (+121.6%) over this 6f course and distance

Based on the above, it makes perfect sense to me to look for Flat handicappers officially rated 54 to 74 who  had run in the previous 25 days and they are...

...meaning we've halved the original sample size, but only lost one of the winners. The sharper eyed amongst you will have noticed that these filters also apply to Our Man in Havana who runs in the first division of this handicap and is a nice price for an E/W bet (9/1 & 4 places paid) if that took your fancy.

As well as highlighting another possible bet, that 9 from 22 stat also includes the following (most of which also apply to the second horse)...

  • 5/10 (50%) for 36.8pts (+368%) in 3yo+ hcps
  • 5/10 (50%) for 20.88pts (+208.8%) at Class 6
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 14.33pts (+159.3%) were placed LTO
  • and 4/6 (66.6%) for 18.38pts (+306.3%) over this 6f C&D

...steering me towards... a 1pt win bet on Under Curfew @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 7.45am Thursday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th September 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

2.05 Newton Abbot : Cotton End @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Led 1st, headed after 3 out, no extra 2 out)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

7.15 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gold Arch @ 5/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 6-runner, Class 4,  A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m6f on Tapeta worth £5,208 to the winner... 

Why?...

Well, the racecard would suggest we've a fighting chance here...

...with a 4 yr old who loves this track, tops the Geegeez ratings and will be ridden by an in-form jockey. All of that, however, is pretty self explanatory by the way we lay it out on the cards.

So, I'll focus on my own "AW Stay" angle for my data today and this basically refers to a group of trainers (six in total) who I keep an eye out for in longer distance A/W handicaps : many of my personal angles really are that simple!

In trainer William Knight's case, my starting point is any such race over a trip of 1m3f and beyond, which since 2015 has given us...

... a 1 in 5 strike rate at an A/E of 1.37 and a profit at Betfair SP of almost 93p for every pound wagered. These are exceptional numbers when you consider we're approaching almost 200 runners over a decent time frame and closer analysis of those 185 runners when faced with similar conditions to today reveals the following dozen ways Mr Knight got his 37 winners...

  • 34/144 (23.6%) for 152.87pts (+106.2%) in races worth up to £8,000
  • 33/160 (20.6%) for 132.64pts (+82.9%) from male runners
  • 30/113 (26.6%) for 148.96pts (+131.8%) with 3-5 yr olds
  • 26/108 (24.1%) for 153.78pts (+142.4%) ran on the A/W LTO
  • 24/126 (19.1%) for 151.26pts (+120.1%) at 11-45 dslr
  • 21/49 (42.9%) for 30.06pts (+61.4%) sent off at 4/1 or shorter
  • 19/74 (25.7%) for 84.14pts (+113.7%) at trips of 1m6f and beyond
  • 18/58 (31%) for 117.9pts (+203.3%) at Class 4
  • 12/61 (19.7%) for 42.13pts (+69.1%) during August to October
  • 6/23 (26.1%) for 27.67pts (+120.3%) on Tapeta
  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 15.65pts (+92.1%) here at Wolverhampton
  • and 3 from 6 (50%) for 8.52pts (+142.1%) over today's 1m6f trip...

...whilst 3-5 yr old males competing for less than £8k at 6-45 days after a run on the A/W LTO are...

...and although I'm wary of over-diluting the sample size, it's worth noting (IMO, at least), that this smaller set of 35 runners includes...

  • 10/16 (62.5%) for 57.34pts (+358.4%) at 1m6f and beyond
  • 9/19 (47.4%) for 14.58pts (+76.7%) at 4/1 and shorter
  • 6/12 (50%) for 41.89pts (+349.1%) at Class 4
  • 5/10 (50%) for 43.71pts (+437.1%) in September & October...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Gold Arch @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th September 2020

Monday's pick was...

3.20 Leicester : Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn by vet : heat in leg)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.05 Newton Abbot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cotton End @ 9/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in an 11-runner, Class 5,  Mares Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m1f on Good ground worth £3,249 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start, as is often the case with the visual clues on the racecard...

...which tells us that we have an LTO winner who has won over course and distance (also LTO) and is top ranked on the Geegeez Speed ratings and will be ridden by a top jockey who has a good record at this venue.

I'm not going too deep into the ratings issue, as I'm not privy to how they are calculated, but I'd just say that the name "Speed" can be misleading, they're more of a neural rating taking the specific race into account, so they do still have merit beyond a 6f sprint!

As for jockey Richard Johnson, no surprises to see him have the C1 and C5 icons next to his name, courtesy of 21.4% and 19.5% strike rates respectively. He's a top jockey and as such is often over-bet, so whilst he wins his fair share here in Devon, one needs to be selective about the ones backed.

If I didn't want to pick his rides on a race by race basis, I'd focus on the lower end ie Class 5 & 6, where I feel the top jockeys earn their money by getting that little bit more out of average horses. Following Dicky on these lower grade runners since 2015 would give you this...

...numbers we can live with!

Finally for this morning, I want to look at the chances of our pick winning back to back course and distance contests after just a short break and I'm heartened by the fact that since 2015, horses turned back out at odds of 7/1 and shorter here at Newton Abbot less than three weeks after a course and distance win are...

...not the biggest sample size, but a near-41% strike rate yielding over 83p profit from £1 staked isn't to be dismissed lightly and despite only having 27 qualifiers in the 2015-20 timeframe, the following snippets are of relevance today...

  • 11/23 (47.8%) for 26.47pts (+115.1%) in fields of 5-12 runners
  • 9/18 (50%) for 27.75pts (+151.1%) off a mark raised by 6lbs or more from LTO
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 8.12pts (+42.7%) on Good ground
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 16.84pts (+93.6%) over hurdles
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 10.19pts (+59.9%) won by 4 lengths or less LTO
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 21.39pts (+152.8%) at odds of 5/2 to 7/1
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 4.74pts (+67.7%) in 3yo+ contests
  • 3/5 (60%) for 1.71pts (+34.2%) in 2020
  • 2/5 (40%) for 7.39pts (+147.8%) from female runners
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 4pts (+80%) in September...

...whilst hurdlers in 5-12 runner contests off marks 6lbs or more higher than an LTO C&D win by 0-4 lengths are 4 from 7 (57.1% SR) for 13.15pts (+187.9% ROI)...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Cotton End @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Tuesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Newton Abbot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

3.10 Kempton : Recovery Run @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 13/8 (Tracked leader, close up when ridden 2f out, ran on well to dispute lead close home, not quite match winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 3,  Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £7,439 to the winner...

Why?...

We'll start with the racecard...

...which, whilst not as informative as some other days, tell us that we've an in-form horse (2 wins from last three starts) who scores well on the Geegeez Speed ratings and who will be ridden by a jockey with a good recent record here at Leicester with 9 wins from 35 (25.7% SR) since 2016.

Our boy might well be 10 yrs old now, but seems to be enjoying his own personal Indian Summer, having won two of three this year to take his career record on the Flat to a more than acceptable 11 wins from 58 and that 19% strike rate has yielded the following under today's conditions...

  • 9 wins and 11 further places from 51 for trainer Ian Williams
  • 8 wins, 10 places from 38 over a 7f trip
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 11 on Good to Soft
  • 2 wins from 3 in 2020
  • 1 win plus 1 place from 3 under jockey William Buick
  • 1 win plus 1 place from 2 here at Leciester
  • and 1 win, 1 place from 2 over course and distance

And now to trainer Ian Williams, who has been very good over the years at getting horses to win back to back races on the Flat, especially when not left off the track too long and when the market deems them to have at least a fighting chance. So, basically my Ian Williams LTO winner micro-angle is to look for those sent off at 7/1 and shorter within 45 days of that last run/win and since 2014, such runners are...

...with a win ratio of almost 2 in 5 at an A/E approaching 1.5 generating over 55p in the pound profits at Betfair SP giving us grounds for optimism here today, especially as they contain the following of relevance today...

  • 36/86 (41.9%) for 58.49pts (+68%) in races worth less than £17k
  • 34/91 (37.4%) for 50.5pts (+55.5%) in handicaps
  • 16/27 (59.3%) for 26.42pts (+97.9%) at 1-10 dslr
  • 13/28 (46.4%) for 28.91pts (+103.3%) during September/October
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 26.7pts (+178%) over 6/7 furlongs
  • 5/10 (50%) for 13.77pts (+137.7%) on Good to Soft ground
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 6.74pts (+224.8%) under jockey William Buick
  • and 1 from 2 (50%) for 0.97pts (+48.5%) here at Leicester...

...whilst from the above, in sub-£17k handicaps at 1-10 dslr, they are 16 from 23 (69.6% SR) for 30.42pts (+132.3% ROI), including a perfect 6 from 6 at an A/E of 3.77 in September/October generating 19.42pts profit (+326.6% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

3.10 Kempton : Recovery Run @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 13/8 (Tracked leader, close up when ridden 2f out, ran on well to dispute lead close home, not quite match winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 3,  Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £7,439 to the winner...

Why?...

We'll start with the racecard...

...which, whilst not as informative as some other days, tell us that we've an in-form horse (2 wins from last three starts) who scores well on the Geegeez Speed ratings and who will be ridden by a jockey with a good recent record here at Leicester with 9 wins from 35 (25.7% SR) since 2016.

Our boy might well be 10 yrs old now, but seems to be enjoying his own personal Indian Summer, having won two of three this year to take his career record on the Flat to a more than acceptable 11 wins from 58 and that 19% strike rate has yielded the following under today's conditions...

  • 9 wins and 11 further places from 51 for trainer Ian Williams
  • 8 wins, 10 places from 38 over a 7f trip
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 11 on Good to Soft
  • 2 wins from 3 in 2020
  • 1 win plus 1 place from 3 under jockey William Buick
  • 1 win plus 1 place from 2 here at Leciester
  • and 1 win, 1 place from 2 over course and distance

And now to trainer Ian Williams, who has been very good over the years at getting horses to win back to back races on the Flat, especially when not left off the track too long and when the market deems them to have at least a fighting chance. So, basically my Ian Williams LTO winner micro-angle is to look for those sent off at 7/1 and shorter within 45 days of that last run/win and since 2014, such runners are...

...with a win ratio of almost 2 in 5 at an A/E approaching 1.5 generating over 55p in the pound profits at Betfair SP giving us grounds for optimism here today, especially as they contain the following of relevance today...

  • 36/86 (41.9%) for 58.49pts (+68%) in races worth less than £17k
  • 34/91 (37.4%) for 50.5pts (+55.5%) in handicaps
  • 16/27 (59.3%) for 26.42pts (+97.9%) at 1-10 dslr
  • 13/28 (46.4%) for 28.91pts (+103.3%) during September/October
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 26.7pts (+178%) over 6/7 furlongs
  • 5/10 (50%) for 13.77pts (+137.7%) on Good to Soft ground
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 6.74pts (+224.8%) under jockey William Buick
  • and 1 from 2 (50%) for 0.97pts (+48.5%) here at Leicester...

...whilst from the above, in sub-£17k handicaps at 1-10 dslr, they are 16 from 23 (69.6% SR) for 30.42pts (+132.3% ROI), including a perfect 6 from 6 at an A/E of 3.77 in September/October generating 19.42pts profit (+326.6% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 31st August to 5th September 2020

It's all a bit groundhog day again this week. It just seems to be one winner per week at present and sadly that proved to be the case again.

I'm frustrated/disappointed at the numbers of late, but I'm generally happy with the picks, as we're there or thereabouts most days. Poor tactics cost us an 8/1 winner on Monday and we'd a nice victory on Tuesday. Wednesday & Saturday saw us bag runners-up slots, whilst Thursday's runner unshipped his rider when going really well and to top it off, Friday's pick was undone by the Ascot draw.

These aren't excuses, they're facts, but the main over-riding fact is that we just didn't do well enough, so we'll try again this week!

Chris

Selections & Results : 31/08/20 to 05/09/20

31/08 : Cape Greco @ 8/1 BOG 5th at 10/3
01/09 : Kayewhykelly @ 5/2 BOG WON at 6/4
02/09 : Swiss Pride @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 5/1
03/09 : Classic Escape @ 5/2 BOG UR at 5/2
04/09 : Gin Palace @ 5/1 BOG 6th at 11/2
05/09 : Recovery Run @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 13/8

31/08/20 to 05/09/20 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -2.50pts

August 2020 :
5 winners from 26 = 19.23% SR
P/L: -3.88pts
ROI = -14.92%

September 2020 :
1 winner from 5 = 20.00% SR
P/L: -1.50pts
ROI = -30.00%

2020 to date :
27 winners from 142 = 19.01% SR
P/L: +5.31pts
ROI = +3.74%

Overall:
683 winners from 2606 = 26.21% SR
P/L: +537.18pts
ROI: +20.61%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is
here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are
now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 5th September 2020

Friday's pick was...

4.50 Ascot : Gin Palace @ 5/1 BOG 6th at 11/2 (Tracked leader, every chance until winner quickened on over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Recovery Run @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4,  A/W Nursery Handicap for 2yo over 1m on Polytrack worth £4,464 to the winner...

Why?...

The racecard holds all the clues, as is often the case...

Here we have a 2 yr old colt, who heads the Geegeez Speed Ratings and who seems to be getting better with each run.

Beaten by less than three lengths on debut here at Kempton over 7f and then by a neck at Chelmsford over 7f, staying on well both times, he got off the mark at Sandown LTO 29 days ago when stepping up to today's 1m trip for the first time.

As you can see from the above, trainer Andrew Balding's horse's do well here at Kempton, when either ridden by my distant relative Rob Hornby or when they're making a handicap debut.

The race by race improvement, the Speed Rating and those two stats are more than enough (in my opinion) to warrant the bet today, but let's just have a quick/closer look at those two reports before signing off, starting with...

...the trainer/jockey/course combo, which with handicappers sent off sub-10/1 since 2015 are 7 from 19 (36.8% SR) for 32.77pts (+172.5% ROI) profit, including 7 from 15 (46.7%) for 36.77pts (+245.2%) from runners rested for less than eight weeks....

...whilst Andrew Balding's handicap debutants sent off shorter than 5/1 here at Kempton since the start of 2018 are 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 9.91pts (+110.1% ROI) profit, including...

  • 3/4 (75%) for 7.21pts (+180.3%) over 7f/1m
  • 3/4 (75%) for 4.29pts (+107.3%) were placed LTO

...steering me towards... a 1pt win bet on Recovery Run @ 5/2 BOG as was available at 8.30am Saturday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!