Tag Archive for: Stat of the day

Stat of the Day, 10th August 2020

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Saturday's pick was...

3.35 Ascot : Jeremiah @ 13/2 BOG 8th at 10/3 (Raced keenly towards rear, bit closer in mid-division on inside halfway, not clear run and switched left inside final 2f, ridden and stayed on late, never going pace to get involved) - We smashed the SP, but never got a run for our money. I rarely criticise jockeys, but I thought this was a poor ride.

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.30 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Power of States @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2½f on Good ground worth £7,763 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding was fourth last time out at Ascot 16 days ago and now takes a drop in both class and trip to run here, whilst the winner of that Ascot race stepped up a class to beat our pick on Saturday.

The drop in class was what caught my eye here, as I'm always interested in Hugo Palmer's handicappers dropping down a level, as those sent off at 14/1 or shorter since the start of 2017 are 27 from 117 (23.1% SR) for 64.25pts at a decent ROI of 54.92%.

And that's if you backed all of them! We don't, generally, so what filters can we apply to make our betting more efficient? Well, of those 117 class droppers, there are...

  • 24/89 (27%) for 82.8pts (93.1%) in fields of 8-15 runners
  • 23/90 (25.6%) for 53.6pts (+59.6%) from male runners
  • 22/96 (22.9%) for 66.7pts (+69.4%) with runners unplaced LTO
  • 15/66 (22.7%) for 47.2pts (+71.2%) on the Flat
  • 15/62 (24.2%) for 28.1pts (+45.3%) at 11-25 days since their last run
  • 7/20 (35%) for 24.2pts (+121%) dropping down in trip by 1 to 2½f
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 16.7pts (+79.7%) over trips of 1m2f to 1m2½f
  • and 6/21 (28.6%) for 18.4pts (+87.8%) with James Doyle in the saddle....

...whilst males who failed to make the frame LTO are 16 from 58 (27.6% SR) for 59.4pts (+102.4% ROI) in fields of 8-15 runners, providing us with over 92% of our original profit from less than 50% of the bets.

This horse is also Hugo's only runner at the meeting tonight, which is also of interest, as since the start of 2016, his record at Evens to 9/1 with solo entrants stands at 71/279 (25.5% SR) for 95pts (+34.1% ROI) in handicaps, including of relevance this evening...

  • 63/224 (28.1%) for 111.8pts (+49.9%) with those off the track for more than 15 days
  • 39/149 (26.2%) for 81.8pts (+54.9%) from those unplaced LTO

...whilst those racing after a 15+ day absence since an unplaced finish LTO are 33 from 123 (26.8%) for 77.4pts (+62.9%), including 10 from 33 (30.3%) for 25.4pts (+76.8%) from those dropping down a class...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Power of States @ 4/1 BOG as was quite widely available (inc several BOGs) at 8.00 am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 3rd to 8th August 2020

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A decent enough week last week with two winners and two placers giving us a 2.33pts profit and had Garsman managed to hang on for the win on Friday, I'd have been happily writing about making 8.83pts, but it wasn't to be and once again we got a timely reminder of how fine the margins can be in this fine sport.

Aside from picking winners, which is always nice, SotD did what SotD always sets out to do and that's to find a selection that will give you a run for your money at a better price than it will eventually run at and with one horse sent off at the odds I quoted with the other five being well backed, we did at least tick that box this week.

In fact, our average quoted price was just shy of 9/2 about runners sent off at an average of just under 3/1 and if you can back horses at 150%+ of SP on a regular basis, you will make profit in the long run which, of course, is the Geegeez plan 😉

Chris

Selections & Results : 03/08/20 to 08/08/20

03/08 : Mountain Peak @ 10/3 BOG WON at 15/8
04/08 : Rebel Leader @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 9/2
05/08 : Alezan @ 4/1 BOG 8th at 5/2
06/08 : See The Sea @ 3/1 BOG WON at 13/8
07/08 : Garsman @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1
08/08 : Jeremiah @ 13/2 BOG 8th at 10/3

03/08/20 to 08/08/20 :
2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +2.33pts

August 2020 :
2 winners from 7 = 28.57% SR
P/L: +1.33pts
ROI = +19.00%

2020 to date :
23 winners from 118 = 19.49% SR
P/L: +12.03pts
ROI = +10.19%

Overall:
679 winners from 2583 = 26.29% S.R
P/L: +543.90pts
ROI: +21.05%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 3rd August 2020

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Saturday's pick was...

8.45 Hamilton : Antico Lady @ 4/1 BOG 10th at 11/4 (Tracked leader after 1f, ridden and unable to quicken 2f out, weakened final furlong) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mountain Peak @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 2 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good ground worth £9,704 to the winner... 

Why?...

As is often the case, the racecard provides a way in for us...

From left to right, 2-3124 suggests a consistent type, CD shows a previous win over course and distance, trainer Ed Walker has a good 1 year and 5 year record at this venue (C1 C5), as does jockey William Buick (also C1 C5) and he's also been riding well of late (14 30), whilst the horse's Geegeez Speed Rating of 95 is the highest in this field today.

Mountain Peak has already won 7 of his 26 starts to date with a impressive 26.9%  strike rate yielding 19..5pts profit at an ROI of 75.2% if you'd backed every time he has run. Of those 26 starts, the following angles of interest are at play today...

  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 27.55pts (+153.1%) at odds of 8/1 or shorter
  • 7/16 (43.75%) for 29.55pts (+184.7%) within 3 weeks of his last run
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 8.7pts (+45.8%) on a straight run
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 10.7pts (+89.1%) over a 5f trip
  • 2/2 (100%) for 5.48pts (+274%) here at Haydock, both over course and distance...

...whilst over a straight 5f at 8/1 or shorter within 3 weeks of his last run, he is 4 from 8 (50% SR) for 14.7pts (+183.7% ROI), including 2 from 2 over C&D.

Jockey William Buick's good 30-day (27/111 = 24.3%) and 14-day (13/56 = 23.2%) are highlighted on the racecard, but over the last seven days, he is actually 10 from 29 (34.5% SR), so he's bang in form and also has a record of 11 wins from 46 (23.9% SR) for 2.53pts (+5.5% ROI) here at Haydock since the start of the 2017 season, although none of those rides were for today's trainer, Ed Walker...

...whose own record in handicaps here at Haydock over the same period stands at 16 from 52 (30.8% SR) for 55.9pts (+107.5% ROI) including the following of relevance today...

  • 15/43 (34.9%) for 59.33pts (+138%) in races worth less than £10,000
  • 14/38 (36.8%) for 59.08pts (+155.5%) in fields of 5-11 runners
  • 12/30 (40%) for 37.84pts (+126.1%) at 1-25 dslr
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 19.74pts (+89.7%) with those rated (OR) 80-95
  • and 4/8 (50%) for 10.43pts (+130.4%) over this 5f C&D...

...whilst those racing in fields of 5-11 runners for less than £10k within 25 days of their last run are 10 from 21 (47.6% SR) for 35.34pts (+168.3% SR) including one of today's pick's C&D successes back in July 2018...

...which all leads to... a 1pt win bet on Mountain Peak @ 10/3 BOG as was widely available (inc at least a couple BOGs, whilst a couple of firms were slightly bigger) at 6.30am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I'll be home from Greece late Monday/early Tuesday, Matt will cover for me for Tuesday and we'll revert to more normal timings from Wednesday.

SotD Update, 27th July to 1st August 2020

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It's all getting a bit Groundhog Day, I'm afraid as for a fourth week in a row, I can only muster one winner. Thankfully, we got paid out at 5/1, meaning we wiped our faces over week, but the lack of a profit meant an overall loss of 2.3pts for the month.

I did say last week that we'd need two winners and so it proved. If I'm honest, I'm not too disheartened as a small loss in what proved to be a difficult month, as post-lockdown, the numbers still look healthy.

Please note I left for Greece last Monday lunchtime to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.

Chris

Selections & Results : 27/07/20 to 01/08/20

27/07 : Stay Smart @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 2/1
28/07 : Mr Wagyu @ 3/1 BOG WON at 5/1
29/07 : Sardinia Sunset @ 9/2 BOG 6th at 4/1
30/07 : Electric Ladyland @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 11/2
31/07 : Single @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4
01/08 : Antico Lady @ 4/1 BOG 10th at 11/4

27/07/20 to 01/08/20 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: +0.00pts

July 2020 :
4 winners from 24 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -2.30pts
ROI = -9.58%

August 2020 :
0 winners from 1 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -1.00pts
ROI = -100.00%

2020 to date :
21 winners from 112 = 18.75% SR
P/L: +9.70pts
ROI = +8.66%

Overall:
677 winners from 2577 = 26.27% S.R
P/L: +541.57pts
ROI: +21.02%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 27th July 2020

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Saturday's pick was...

2.15 Newmarket : Indie Angel @ 9/4 3rd at 5/2 (Steadied start, in touch in rear, wide and headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on to go 3rd towards finish) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.35 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stay Smart @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5 Flat Nursery handicap for 2yo over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

As usual, we start with the racecard...

So, an in-form jockey, an in-form trainer/jockey combo, both jockey and trainer have done well here at this venue in the past and they team up again on a horse that looks to have been well drawn.

All the above is pretty self-explanatory, so I'll use my time this morning to look closer at trainer David O'Meara's record at this track, because my shorthand code in my notebook says..."D'OM/Red/C4-6H/2-4y/9.0m"

It's the not the most secretive of codes, but then again nobody else ever really sees my notes, but what it means is that I keep an eye out for David O'Meara's 2-4 yr old, Class 4-6 handicappers sent off at 8/1 and shorter at Redcar, because since the start of the 2017 season, they are...

...including of note/relevance today...

  • 13/33 (39.4%) for 39.81pts (+120.6%) in fields of 8-12 runners
  • 12/31 (38.7%) for 31.15pts (+100.5%) from male runners
  • 9/30 (30%) for 14.11pts (+47%) from those who raced in the previous 25 days
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 15.89pts (+61.1%) with Danny Tudhope in the saddle
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 24.72pts (+117.7%) during June to August
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 18.57pts (+84.4%) in races worth less than £4,000 to the winner
  • and 5/12 (41.7%) for 17.32pts (+144.3%) at Class 5...

...whilst returning to the Trainer/Jockey stats on the racecard, Messrs O'Meara and Tudhope are 6 from 14 (43.9% SR) for 12.39pts (+88.5% ROI) with males in 8-12 runners contests, including three winners and a runner-up from their last five efforts...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Stay Smart @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.30am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status (*most are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 12.35 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.

SotD Update, 20th to 25th July 2020

/in /by

For the third week in a row, I can only muster one winner, but at 7/1 allied to two non-runners, it meant a nice 4pt profit from the four that actually ran, which is a decent enough return.

It means that whilst we're still in the red for July, we're now within striking distance of clearing a profit for the month, but I'm going to need at least 2 winners from the next 5 picks for that to happen. It's not impossible, of course and I'll certainly be having a crack at it.

Please note I left for Greece last Monday lunchtime to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.

Chris

Selections & Results : 20/07/20 to 25/07/20

20/07 : Lady De Vega @ 5/1 BOG NR at 13/8
21/07 : Daheer @ 10/3 BOG 5th at 9/4
22/07 : Dashing Roger @ 7/1 BOG WON at 6/1
23/07 : Squelch @ 7/2 BOG non-runner
24/07 : Global Exceed @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 3/1
25/07 : Indie Angel @ 9/4 3rd at 5/2

20/07/20 to 25/07/20 :
1 winning bet from 4 = 25.00% SR
P/L: +4.00pts

July 2020 :
3 winners from 19 = 15.79% SR
P/L: -3.30pts
ROI = -17.36%

2020 to date :
20 winners from 106 = 18.87% SR
P/L: +9.70pts
ROI = +9.15%

Overall:
676 winners from 2571 = 26.29% S.R
P/L: +541.57pts
ROI: +21.06%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 20th July 2020

/in /by

Saturday's pick was...

4.20 Haydock : Zlatan @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 11/2 (Chased leaders, not much room over 2f out, soon switched left, ridden over 1f out, beaten 4th final furlong, one pace)

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lady De Vega @ 5/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo over 1m3½f on Good to Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the race card snippet...

A winner on her turf/handicap/class debut LTO 25 days ago, winning relatively comfortably despite a stumble at the start and having to switch outside late on after being boxed in. She'll come on for the experience, as will her rider who was on board for the first time that day.

I don't often hang an SotD selection on a jockey, but I've got it in my head that this Italian apprentice, Stefano Cherchi, could turn out to be something a bit special. He's in great form right now, as seen above, but this is no purple patch, he has been profitable to follow for some while now. In fact, if you go back to the start of April 2019, his record stands at...

...excellent numbers that translate well into today's type of contest, as they include...

  • 21/131 (16%) for 159.11pts (+121.5%) at class 5 or below
  • 21/103 (20.4%) for 60.96pts (+59.2%) at 12/1 or shorter
  • 19/111 (17.1%) for 164.72pts (+148.4%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 15/101 (14.9%) for 158.14pts (+156.6%) for trainer Marco Botti (this is the key for me)
  • 14/77 (18.2%) for 167.23pts (+217.2%) on runners last seen 6-25 days earlier
  • 13/80 (16.25%) for 156.7pts (+195.9%) with 3 yr olds
  • 12/40 (30%) for 191.19pts (+478%) over trips of 1m2f to 1m4f
  • 9/45 (20%) for 27.98pts (+62.2%) on the Flat
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 25.16pts (+119.8%) on Good to Firm ground
  • and 4/15 (26.7%) for 9.05pts (+60.3%) on LTO winners

I said earlier that trainer Marco Botti was key to Stefano Cherchi's successful start to his career here in the UK and with Marco providing around 65% of the jockey's winners/runners, we should look at their partnership a little closer, using some of the details I've already logged...

...ie Botti + Cherchi + Class 5-7 + 12/1 max SP + £0-4k prize money = 11/44 (25% SR) for 40.09pts (+91.1% ROI), including...

  • 8/32 (25%) for 38.43pts (+120.1%) with 3 yr olds
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 32.7pts (+136.3%) within 25 days of their last run
  • and 7/16 (43.75%) for 44.74pts (+279.6%) over 1m2f to 1m4f...

...whilst Botti + Cherchi + Class 5-7 + 12/1 max SP + £0-4k prize money + 3yr olds + 1-25 dslr + 1m2f to 1m4f = 4/10 (40% SR) for 29.36pts (+293.6% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Lady De Vega @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday with bigger offered in places, but as always please check your BOG status (*some go BOG later). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I'm off to Greece on Monday lunchtime (20/07) for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 21/07 & 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different.

SotD Update, 13th to 18th July 2020

/in /by

As with the previous week, it was one winner from six and a small loss on the week meaning we're behind schedule for July. results/performances seemed to get better as the week went on, but July is proving a far tougher nut to crack than June was.

We're probably 2 w or 3 winners shy of where we would like to be, but that said, the numbers post-lockdown still look more than respectable, I just need to get back amongst the winners again.

Next pick will go live shortly after 8.00am Monday, but please note I'm off to Greece on Monday lunchtime to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 21/07 & 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different.

Chris

Selections & Results : 13/07/20 to 18/07/20

13/07 : Dodgy Bob @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 16/5
14/07 : Cappananty Con @ 4/1 BOG 9th at 10/3
15/07 : Emirates Knight @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 3/1
16/07 : Somewhere Secret @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 11/4
17/07 : Treacherous @ 3/1 BOG WON at 16/5
18/07 : Zlatan @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 11/2

13/07/20 to 18/07/20 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -1.80pts

July 2020 :
2 winners from 15 = 13.33% SR
P/L: -7.30pts
ROI = -48.66%

2020 to date :
19 winners from 102 = 18.63% SR
P/L: +5.70pts
ROI = +5.59%

Overall:
675 winners from 2567 = 26.30% S.R
P/L: +537.57pts
ROI: +20.94%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 13th July 2020

/in /by

Saturday's pick was...

4.50 Newcastle : Canagat @ 5/2 BOG WON at 6/4 (Quickly away and keen, always close up, led over 3f out, clear lead over 2f out, driven and stayed on well) A welcome winner, that the Geegeez Pace/Draw heat map had spot on!

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.40 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dodgy Bob @ 11/4 or 3/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo over 6f on Good ground worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

Starting with the racecard...

A horse in decent form, placed LTO a week ago and is trained at an in-form yard as highlighted by the 30 icon and the subsequent Trainer Stats report.

What the above doesn't tell you, is what I'll focus on now...

And of that 11/58 record, the following is of relevance today...

  • 10/43 (23.3%) for 59.87pts (+139.2%) during June-September
  • 9/46 (19.6%) for 52.97pts (+115.1%) from male runners
  • 8/36 (22.2%) for 33.68pts (+93.6%) on the Flat
  • 7/29 (24.1%) for 22.12pts (+73.6%) at Class 6
  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 13.41pts (+58.3%) at 6/1 and shorter
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 28.96pts (+137.9%) over 6f
  • 6/20 (30%) for 58pts (+290%) from those placed 3rd LTO
  • and 4/13 (30.8%) for 14.51pts (+111.6%) with Phil Dennis in the saddle...

...whilst Class 6 males are 4 from 13 (30.8% SR) for 27.21pts (+209.34% ROI) on the Flat during June to September, including two wins from four for today's pick, Dodgy Bob...

...guiding us towards...a 1pt win bet on Dodgy Bob @ 11/4 or 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 12.40 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 6th to 11th July 2020

/in /by

Five losers to start the week wasn't what we wanted/needed and July continues to be the chalk to June's cheese (I prefer cheese). Betting on racing is always a rollercoaster ride and good runs will allow follow bad ones and vice versa.

That said, Saturday's well fancied winner was a welcome relief as it broke a cycle of 10 losers and although I put him up at 5/2, which is pretty much as low as I'm comfortable with for SotD, he did prove that even at the sharper end of the market, you can get some value as those getting on at 5/2 got 167% of Industry SP, which is why we never back at SP!

So, despite being almost halfway through the month, the running loss for July is manageable and nothing that a couple of winners won't fix, so that's the immediate aim.

Next pick will go live shortly after 8.00am Monday.

Chris

Selections & Results : 06/07/20 to 11/07/20

06/07 : Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1
07/07 : Music Therapist @ 5/1 BOG 9th at 9/4
08/07 : Puerto Banus @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 3/1
09/07 : Blairlogie @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 15/8
10/07 : Pink Flamingo @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/2
11/07 : Canagat @ 5/2 BOG WON at 6/4

06/07/20 to 11/07/20 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -2.50pts

July 2020 :
1 winner from 9 = 11.11% SR
P/L: -5.50pts
ROI = -61.11%

2020 to date :
18 winners from 96 = 18.75% SR
P/L: +7.50pts
ROI = +7.81%

Overall:
674 winners from 2561 = 26.32% S.R
P/L: +539.37pts
ROI: +21.06%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 6th July 2020

/in /by

Saturday's pick was...

2.05 Haydock : Cruising @ 13/2 BOG non-runner (unruly at start and refused to enter stalls). Sort of summed our week up succinctly.

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.15 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Claiming Stakes for 3yo over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Pretty straightforward stuff today as all the statistical information I'm going to give you is actually highlighted or referred to below...

Here we have a 3yr old filly who has failed to make the frame on any of her five previous starts, but wasn't disgraced on handicap debut at Leicester 11 days ago.

14 indicates that jockey Tom Marquand is in good form right now and his fortnightly record of 18 wins from 77 is documented, as is his record over the last year for trainer Mick Channon, so I won't delve into either of those sets of figures today, there's no need.

Mick Channon also has the C1 icon by his name, denoting a decent record at this venue over the last 12 months. Closer inspection tells me that he is 15 from 52 (28.9% SR) for 57.11pts (+109.8%) with runners sent off at Evens to 12/1 here since the start of 2018 and these include of relevance today...

  • 11/33 (33.3%) for 53.07pts (+160.8%) from those unplaced last time out
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 48.11pts (+185%) at 11-25 days since they last ran
  • 9/30 (30%) for 32.12pts (+107.1%) during June to August
  • 6/10 (60%) for 37.08pts (+370.8%) stepping up 1 class
  • and 3/3 (100%) for 20.89pts (+696.4%) with Tom Marquand in the saddle

...whilst those unplaced LTO 11 to 25 days earlier are 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 28.01pts (+466.8% ROI) during July & August, including 2 from 2 stepping up a grade and 1 from 1 for Tom Marquand...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 29th June to 4th July 2020

/in /by

Five losers and a runner who wouldn't enter the stalls from six picks doesn't look great, does it? But that was the story of last week and you might be surprised to hear that only my wallet is hurting as a result.

I'm still generally happy with what we got for our money. Unlucky possibly on Monday, going down by a length and then by just a head on Friday. Saturday's runner wouldn't enter the stalls, whereas on Tuesday there were no stalls and from a standing start, we'd lost before we even began in farcicial conditions.

Midweek was poor, with two well beaten runners, but when backing runners at 7/1 and the like, you can go a while between drinks.

So, I'm not too despondent. : June was great and I just need July to start firing and the world will seem a better place.

Next pick will go live shortly after 8.00am Monday.

Chris

Selections & Results : 29/06/20 to 04/07/20

29/06 : Porto Ferro @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 2/1
30/06 : Chetan @ 11/4 BOG 8th at 11/10
01/07 : Chapmanshype @ 5/1 BOG 9th at 7/1
02/07 : Steelriver @ 5/1 BOG 7th at 9/2
03/07 : Comeatchoo @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1
04/07 : Cruising @ 13/2 BOG non-runner

29/06/20 to 04/07/20 :
0 winning bets from 5 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -5.00pts

June 2020 :
8 winners from 26 = 30.77% SR
P/L: +27.17pts
ROI = +104.50%

July 2020 :
0 winners from 3 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -3.00pts
ROI = -100.00%

2020 to date :
17 winners from 90 = 18.89% SR
P/L: +10.00pts
ROI = +11.11%

Overall:
673 winners from 2556= 26.33% S.R
P/L: +541.87pts
ROI: +21.20%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 29th June 2020

/in /by

Saturday's pick was...

3.00 Newcastle : Nkosikazi @ 5/1 BOG (7/2 after a 30p Rule 4 deduction) WON at 9/4 (Made all, driven and joined over 1f out, stayed on well and pulling away inside final 120 yards to win by 2.5 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.20 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Porto Ferro @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, the logical place to start is the racecard...

...which tells me that this former C&D winner hasn't actually won recently, but did finish in the frame last time out just a week ago, so perhaps a return to form is imminent? That, of course, remains to be seen. However, this runner does pop up on one of my reports, denoted by the 1 under the name, so let's look at...

...that number 1...

To put the above into context, 5 places from 8 (62.5%) including 2 wins (25%) here at Windsor might not initially seem worth hanging a bet on and you'd be right. In isolation, it isn't, but this 6 yr old mare's career record over 52 races shows a place record of just 28.8% and a win ratio as low as 7.7% via 15 places from 52 including just 4 wins.

So, a third of her total place finishes and half of her wins have come on this track from just 15.4% of her races and of that 2 wins & 3 places from 8 here at Windsor...

  • all came in handicaps
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 5 at 6-15 days since her last run
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 3 on good to firm
  • and the same 2 wins, 1 place from 3 in fields of 1-8 runners

Referring back to her overall meagre 4 wins and 11 places from 52 starts, as well as enjoying success here at Windsor, her career stats also offer the following snippets of encouragement...

  • 4 wins, 7 places from 38 at 6-30 days since last run
  • 4 wins, 5 places from 17 in fields of 5-8 runners
  • 3 wins, 9 places from 38 for trainer John Bridger
  • 3 wins, 9 places from 30 over a 6f trip
  • 3 wins, 6 places from 26 on a straight track
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 10 on Good To Firm
  • and 2 wins, 5 places from 18 for today's jockey Kieran O'Neill

...whilst on a straight good to firm strip at 6-30 dslr in a field of 5-8 runners for John Bridger, she is 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 13.89pts (+277.8% ROI).

The final part of the racecard that I want to briefly touch on, is the SR column, which over shorter trips is very relevant and the following should be self-explanatory...

The obvious elephant in the room is that this mare has no win in 24 races since a win here over 5f on 20/08/18 off a mark of 72 and is now rated some 27lbs lower, but that hasn't put me off either as...

...including the following dozen angles of relevance today...

  • 17/69 (24.6%) for 47.46pts (+68.8%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 17/63 (27%) for 51.91pts (+82.4%) at trips shorter than 9 furlongs
  • 15/39 (38.5%) for 59.61pts (+152.8%) at 1-15 dslr
  • 14/45 (31.1%) for 53.92pts (+119.8%) with horses who last won 12 or more races ago
  • 12/43 (27.9%) for 49.03pts (+114%) off a mark (OR) of 45 to 55
  • 12/38 (31.6%) for 41.16pts (+108.3%) on the Flat
  • 11/50 (22%) for 33.74pts (+67.5%) at Class 6
  • 10/38 (26.3%) for 31.46pts (+82.8%) last won 1 to 2 yrs earlier
  • 9/29 (31%) for 25.98pts (+89.6%) during April to July
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 15.58pts (+103.9%) running off marks 12lb or more lower than their last win
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 21.95pts (+243.9%) here at Windsor
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 13.88pts (+99.2%) with Kieran O'Neill in the saddle

...and although I don't want to dilute the numbers too much, I found it interesting to note that those who hadn't won for 12 or more races, but were turned back out in a race shorter than 9f worth less than £4k after just 6-15 days rest were...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Porto Ferro @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 22nd to 27th June 2020

/in /by

Definitely a week of ups and downs starting with a run of four defeats including a few poor performances and then a better end to the week with two winners.

And despite both winners having their odds reduced by Rule 4 deductions denying us 2pts profit, we still cleared almost 3pts on the week.

So with two more picks to come, our worst case scenario for June has now moved on to +27.17pts, one of our best ever months and the best since we made 31.75pts in January 2019. We'd need a 4/1 winner to beat that figure, whilst a 5/1 success would give us our best ever, beating January 2012's 32.82pts.

Next pick will go live shortly after 8.00am Monday.

Chris

Selections & Results : 22/06/20 to 27/06/20

22/06 : Air Force Amy @ 13/2 BOG 2nd at 9/2
23/06 : Peachey Carnehan @ 10/3 BOG 5th at 11/4
24/06 : My Valentino @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 9/1
25/06 : Princess Way @ 6/1 BOG 9th at 9/1
26/06 : National Anthem @ 7/2 BOG (3/1 after a 20p Rule 4 deduction) WON at 10/3
27/06 : Nkosikazi @ 5/1 BOG (7/2 after a 30p Rule 4 deduction) WON at 9/4

22/06/20 to 27/06/20 :
2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +2.83pts

June 2020 :
8 winners from 24 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +29.17pts
ROI = +121.54%

2020 to date :
17 winners from 85 = 20.00% SR
P/L: +15.00pts
ROI = +17.65%

Overall:
673 winners from 2551= 26.38% S.R
P/L: +546.87pts
ROI: +21.44%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 22nd June 2020

/in /by

Saturday's pick was...

5.35 Ripon : Highland Acclaim @ 6/1 BOG 9th at 12/1 (Chased leaders, lost place over 1f out) - The market got this one spot on, I'm afraid.

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Air Force Amy @ 13/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m3½f on Good ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

On a tricky day for those who lean on statistical data to help form a bet, I'm going to keep it fairly simple with today's selection in the last race of the day.

Air Force Amy is a 4 yr old filly who looked like she needed the run eight days ago when weakening out of contention in the final furlong at Goodwood upon her return from a 255-day absence from the track.

Her sole victory to date was in a Class 5 flat handicap over a trip just 102 yards further than today and she takes that same slight drop back in trip from her last run, which should help her see the contest out.

Looking at her form and at the racecard in general, she's not an obvious pick, but the last couple of years have been good for her yard here at Windsor, especially with handicappers at least deemed not to be no hopers.

Numerically, I'm thinking of Mick Channon's handicappers who have been sent off in the Evens to 11/1 odds range since the start of the 2018 campaign, because they are...

...which is pretty impressive and with more than half of them making the frame, I'd at least expect a good run for my money. 33 runners isn't a lot to back blindly, but if you wanted to be more selective, then...

  • those with a run in the previous 25 days are 11/27 (40.7%) for 59.52pts (+220.4%)
  • those sent off bigger than 3/1 are 10/27 (37%) for 65.23pts (+241.6%)
  • female runners are 4/12 (33.3%) for 27.56pts (+229.7%)
  • 4 yr olds are 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.13pts (+130.5%)
  • and those racing in 4yo+ contests are 3/5 (60%) for 5.16pts (+103.3%)

...whilst those sent off bigger than 3/1 within 25 days of their last run are 8 from 21 (38.1% SR) for 57.19pts (+272.3% ROI) maintaining almost 85% of the original profits from less than 64% of the original bets by multiplying the original ROI by 1.33, including four winners from nine (44.4%) for 30.56pts (+339.5%) with female runners...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Air Force Amy @ 13/2 BOG as was available from Unibet, BetVictor* & Hills* (*the latter two don't go BOG until a little later this morning, but there's plenty of 11/2 BOG elsewhere) at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!