Posts

Stat of the Day, 4th September 2020

Thursday's pick was...

4.30 Southwell : Classic Escape @ 5/2 BOG UR at 5/2 (Mid-division, travelled well at halfway, mistake and unseated rider 11th)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.50 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gin Palace @ 5/1 BOG

...in an 9-runner, Class 2,  Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Good To Soft ground worth £15,562 to the winner...

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?...

First port of call is our racecard...

and then The Shortlist report...

...which all tells us that our jockey has a good record at this track, especially with today's trainer and that our horse should be well suited by conditions.

This 4 yr old gelding was only held off by a neck when headed late on over this trip at Sandown 13 days ago, off the same mark as today. He'd had to race wide in a 15 runner contest that day, so this smaller field will hopefully help him stay closer to the action, as it has in the past.

He has won 5 of 12 Flat handicaps to date, a decent enough record that includes of relevance today...

  • 5 from 8 over a mile
  • 4 from 7 at odds of 3/1 to 8/1
  • 4 from 5 in fields of 7 to 10 runners
  • 3 from 5 after 11-20 days rest
  • 3 from 5 on a straight run
  • and 1 from 1 in sub-£20k Class 2 contests

And now we'll look at that trainer/jockey/course snippet from above, because I find this rather interesting today. Quite often, a jockey relies on a certain trainer for "good rides", but here at Ascot, it seems that it's the other way round and our trainer Eve Johnson Houghton can't seem to buy a winner here at Ascot, unless Charlie Bishop is available.

Let me explain this theory. We start with Eve's pretty poor record here at Ascot, which currently reads...

with the Betfair SP profits of 31.03pts skewed by a winner at 60.00. In the last six years, she has had six winners here, all ridden by Charlie Bishop, who only started riding for her three years ago, meaning she'd gone three years without an Ascot winner until Charlie's appearance. In fact, without Charlie, her Ascot numbers are...

and that's fairly dismal stuff, isn't it? Yet, in the last three years, the trainer/jockey/track stats are...

...which despite still containing that 60.00 winner are very good figures indeed.

So now we've established the success of the partnership, we can how they've performed in similar conditions to today, so from that 6/25 record here, Eve & Charlie are...

  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 83.7pts (+440.6%) with 2-4 yr olds
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 80.1pts (+421.4%) with male runners
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 23.9pts (+170.5%) with runners placed LTO
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 12.72pts (+106%) in races worth less than £16,500
  • 4/4 (100%) for 20.72pts (+518%) with runners sent off at odds of 9/4 to 6/1
  • 2/5 (40%) for 23.4pts (+468%) with LTO runners-up
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 24.4pts (+610%) with horses rested for just 11-15 days...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Gin Palace @ 5/1 BOG as was available at 8.00am Friday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd September 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

5.00 Wolverhampton : Swiss Pride @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Towards rear, switched right over 1f out, ran on final furlong, no threat)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Classic Escape @ 5/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4,  Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m1f on Good ground worth £4,289 to the winner...

Why?...

Again, the racecard holds all the clues for me today...

Essentially we have a trainer and a jockey with good course records (C5) and the trainer is also one of a list of trainers I keep an eye out for in Class 4 & 5 handicap chases.

So, let's start with the jockey, Sean Bowen. A closer look at his overall record here at Southwell shows that he has won 13 of 40 (32.5% SR) races for 45.92pts (+114.8% ROI) in handicap chases here since the start of 2016 when sent off at 12/1 or shorter and this includes a 9/23 (39.1%) for 30.1pts (+130.9%) return over trips of 3m to 3m2f.

And now to the trainer, Dr Richard Newland. Of his C5 record, I'm particularly interested in his runners sent off shorter than 4/1, as they are 10 from 18 (55.6% SR) for 6.32pts (+35.1% ROI) profit, whilst more generally he's one of a number of trainers that I look for in these type of events, as his record in Class 4 handicap chases since the start of 2016 stands at 22 from 75 (29.3% SR) for 12.76pts (+17% ROI).

So, a strike rate approaching 1 in 3 and a profit of almost 20p in the pound from blind backing? What's not to like?

Well, blind backing is what's not to like, as we should always seek to eliminate some of the losers where possible without affecting our returns and in this case, we should focus on the...

  • 18 from 44 (40.9%) for 9.72pts (+22.1%) at 3/1 and shorter
  • 15 from 41 (36.6%) for 13.02pts (+31.8%) with 6 and 7 yr olds
  • and the 11 from 27 (40.7%) for 27pts (+100%) at 11-20 days since last run.

The above 22/75 also includes a 35% strike rate (7 from 20) at 3 miles and beyond, whilst 6/7 yr olds at 3/1 and shorter at 11-30 dslr are 10/16 (62.5% SR) for 14.47pts (+90.5% ROI) and an A/E of 1.66 including 7 from 10 (70% and A/E of 1.68) from 7 yr olds...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Classic Escape @ 5/2 BOG as was available at 8.05am Thursday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd September 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

7.45 Hamilton : Kayewhykelly @ 5/2 BOG WON at 6/4 (Led to post and taken down early, tracked leaders, effort when not clear run 2f out, switched left over 1f out, quickened to lead inside final furlong, ran on to win by half a length)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.00 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Swiss Pride @ 11/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £3,881 to the winner...

Why?...

We start, as is often the case, with the racecard...

Jockey James Doyle is in excellent form right now, as seen above and also has a 50% strike rate here at Wolverhampton (18 from 36) since the start of 2018, including 5 wins from 8 over this 7f course and distance.

He comes here for the first time since the 7th December to ride a 4 yr old gelding who was only beaten by a head last time out at Chelmsford when finishing strongly over 6f, so the extra distance allied to James' talents might just make all the difference today for a horse that already has a win and a place from his two previous efforts on this track and is three from ten at Class 5.

More generally, since 2015, Roger Teal's handicappers returning within two weeks of a top three finish where they either won or were beaten by two lengths or less are 11 from 41 (26.8% SR) for 52.92pts (+129.1% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 11/30 (36.7%) for 63.92pts (+213.1%) in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 45.29pts (+188.7%) in the second half of the year
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 49.03pts (+213.2%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 7/21 (33.3%) for 37.62pts (+179.2%) were beaten by a head to two lengths
  • 6/20 (30%) for 27.62pts (+138.1%) over trips of a mile or shorter
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 51.42pts (+395.5%) stepping up in trip by 1-2 furlongs
  • and 5 from 17 (29.4%) for 33.04pts (+194.4%) at Class 5...

...whilst in 6-11 runner contests worth less than £4k in the second half of the year, they are 7 from 12 (58.3% SR) for 35.4pts (+295% ROI) at an A/E of some 2.98...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Swiss Pride @ 11/2 BOG or bigger in places as was available at 8.10am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st September 2020

Monday's pick was...

12.00 Southwell : Cape Greco @ 8/1 BOG 5th at 10/3 (In rear, pushed along over 2f out, some late headway, beaten by 6 lengths and never nearer) Absolutely dreadful tactics with a horse known for prominent/front running.

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

7.45 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Kayewhykelly @ 5/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Soft ground worth £6,631 to the winner...

Why?...

Running late due to some tech issues at home overnight, so I'll keep this as brief as I can, starting, as ever, with the racecard, which pretty much is my way in to this race....

So, trainer Julie Camacho's only runner of the day is this 3 yr old filly who won handsomely by 5.5 lengths under today's jockey over a mile at Haydock 24 days ago. The sample sizes aren't the best, but trainer & jockey seem to fare well together and Julie has a decent enough record here at Hamilton to warrant a second look, whilst the speed ratings are gently persuasive too.

A closer inspection of Julie's 5 year record here at Hamilton shows that her runners are actually 7 from 16 (43.75% SR) for 23.09pts (+144.3% ROI at betfair SP) over the last four (inc this one) seasons with the following of relevance/note today...

  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 24.09pts (+160.6%) in handicaps
  • 7/10 (70%) for 29.09pts (+290.9%) at odds of 6/4 to 6/1
  • 7/9 (77.8%) for 30.09pts (+334.3%) with handicappers sent off at 6/4 to 6/1
  • 4/8 (50%) for 15.36pts (+192%) at Class 4
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 13.32pts (+190.3%) in races worth £4k to £8k
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 12.23pts (+203.9%) from those placed LTO
  • 2/4 (50%) for 9.4pts (+235%) stepping up a class
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 7.31pts (+182.2%) with female runners...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Kayewhykelly @ 5/2 BOG as was available at 8.30am Tuesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Hamilton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 31st August 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.40 Redcar : Sambucca Spirit @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Pressed leader, ridden to lead 2f out, headed entering final furlong, kept on but no chance with winner) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cape Greco @ 8/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/w Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

More on this shortly, of course...

In a poor-looking race, I've hopefully grabbed us some value with a 5 yr old gelding whose form line looks the most promising of the 12 runners here today. Half of them have never won, only two including our pick have won within their last five starts and with three wins and four other top 3 finishes from his last ten starts (all on A/W), our selection clearly brings the best recent form to the table.

Those 10 runs include three wins on standard going, three wins going left handed, a win and a runner-up from two here at Southwell including a win on his only effort at course and distance. That C&D win was just three starts ago and he's only 2lbs higher here today.

The C5 icon on the racecard and the highlighting of my own Sthl AW angle suggest Gay Kelleway has done well at this track of late, so let's take a quick look at the evidence. Initially we can see that simply backing all Gay's runners here since the start of 2018 has been a profitable venture at...

...with a near 23% strike rate, an ROI at Betfair SP of over 45% and an A/E just shy of 1.25 all ticking lots of boxes for me. The average win odds suggests she's not relying on favourites or shorties to bring home the bacon, which also works for us today.

Now, based on the horse's record above and these trainer stats, I'd be happy to hang my bet upon those numbers, especially at the odds we've secured, but SotD wouldn't be SotD if I didn't at least attempt a deeper dig at the stats, would it?

So, here goes, of that 14/61 record here on the A/W at Southwell, Gay Kelleway is...

  • 14 from 54 (25.9%) for 34.79pts (+64.4%) with male runners
  • 13/48 (27.1%) for 11.57pts (+24.9%) at Class 5/6
  • 13/43 (30.2%) for 43.12pts (+100.3%) at 1-30 dslr
  • 13/42 (31%) for 17.97pts (+42.8%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 12/50 (24%) for 33.92pts (+67.8%) in handicaps
  • and 7/25 (28%) for 40.27pts (+161.1%) in fields of 8-12 runners...

...whilst Class 5/6 males sent off at 8/1 and shorter in handicaps within thirty days of their last run are 11 from 20 (55% SR) for 35.1pts (+175.5% ROI), from which they are 5/7 (71.4%) for 27.25pts (+389.3%) in fields of 8-12 runners...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Cape Greco @ 8/1 BOG as was available at 8.05am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 12.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 31st August 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.40 Redcar : Sambucca Spirit @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Pressed leader, ridden to lead 2f out, headed entering final furlong, kept on but no chance with winner) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cape Greco @ 8/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/w Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

More on this shortly, of course...

In a poor-looking race, I've hopefully grabbed us some value with a 5 yr old gelding whose form line looks the most promising of the 12 runners here today. Half of them have never won, only two including our pick have won within their last five starts and with three wins and four other top 3 finishes from his last ten starts (all on A/W), our selection clearly brings the best recent form to the table.

Those 10 runs include three wins on standard going, three wins going left handed, a win and a runner-up from two here at Southwell including a win on his only effort at course and distance. That C&D win was just three starts ago and he's only 2lbs higher here today.

The C5 icon on the racecard and the highlighting of my own Sthl AW angle suggest Gay Kelleway has done well at this track of late, so let's take a quick look at the evidence. Initially we can see that simply backing all Gay's runners here since the start of 2018 has been a profitable venture at...

...with a near 23% strike rate, an ROI at Betfair SP of over 45% and an A/E just shy of 1.25 all ticking lots of boxes for me. The average win odds suggests she's not relying on favourites or shorties to bring home the bacon, which also works for us today.

Now, based on the horse's record above and these trainer stats, I'd be happy to hang my bet upon those numbers, especially at the odds we've secured, but SotD wouldn't be SotD if I didn't at least attempt a deeper dig at the stats, would it?

So, here goes, of that 14/61 record here on the A/W at Southwell, Gay Kelleway is...

  • 14 from 54 (25.9%) for 34.79pts (+64.4%) with male runners
  • 13/48 (27.1%) for 11.57pts (+24.9%) at Class 5/6
  • 13/43 (30.2%) for 43.12pts (+100.3%) at 1-30 dslr
  • 13/42 (31%) for 17.97pts (+42.8%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 12/50 (24%) for 33.92pts (+67.8%) in handicaps
  • and 7/25 (28%) for 40.27pts (+161.1%) in fields of 8-12 runners...

...whilst Class 5/6 males sent off at 8/1 and shorter in handicaps within thirty days of their last run are 11 from 20 (55% SR) for 35.1pts (+175.5% ROI), from which they are 5/7 (71.4%) for 27.25pts (+389.3%) in fields of 8-12 runners...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Cape Greco @ 8/1 BOG as was available at 8.05am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 12.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 24th to 29th August 2020

We had a great start to the week with a 5/1 winner and a 4/1 shot beaten by just a short head, but things went downhill from there. In fairness, Saturday's runner-up ran a decent race, but was well beaten by a better performer on the day.

The upshot is that we're back where we were last Sunday, -2.88pts for the month, but it makes the maths very simple. If Monday's runner fails to win, we lose 3.88pts on the month and if we're to make profit from August, we need a 3/1 (or bigger) winner.

The fact that Tuesday's narrow defeat could be the difference between success and failure for the month merely serves to highlight the very fine margins we have to work within every time we stick our neck out and recommend a horse.

Can/will I land a 3/1 winner tomorrow? Well, I certainly hope so!

Chris

Selections & Results : 24/08/20 to 29/08/20

24/08 : Equidae @ 4/1 BOG WON at 5/1
25/08 : Do You Know What @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1
26/08 : Millie The Minx @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 11/2
27/08 : Escalade @ 4/1 BOG 8th at 7/2
28/08 : Compadre @ 11/4 BOG 8th at 5/1
29/08 : Sambucca Spirit @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 5/1

24/08/20 to 29/08/20 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: +0.00pts

August 2020 :
5 winners from 25 = 20.00% SR
P/L: -2.88pts
ROI = -11.52%

2020 to date :
26 winners from 136 = 19.11% SR
P/L: +7.81pts
ROI = +5.74%

Overall:
682 winners from 2601 = 26.22% SR
P/L: +539.68pts
ROI: +20.74%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is
here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are
now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 29th August 2020

Friday's pick was...

1.40 Fontwell : Compadre @ 11/4 BOG 8th at 5/1 (Always towards rear, never on terms) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Sambucca Spirit @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Soft ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

More on this shortly, of course...

Here we have a 4 yr old gelding with 2 wins and a place from four runs since racing resumed in June all at Class 6 and under today's jockey Kevin Stott. The first of those runs/wins was his only previous visit to Redcar, so he has an unbeaten record to protect here.

The racecard shows plenty of green icons denoting both trainer and jockey have been in decent form of late and both have good records at this venue, whilst my report show that that pair have fared well together over the last year.

And I want to expand slightly upon the trainer/jockey record this morning before wrapping today's piece up, because since the start of 2018 the Midgley/Stott combo is 15 from 53 (28.3% SR) for 28.75pts (+54.2% ROI) in Flat handicaps at odds of 8/1 and shorter, including of note today...

  • 11/37 (29.7%) for 27.8pts (+75.1%) with horses rested for less than three weeks
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 26pts (+108.3%) with horses placed LTO
  • 7/21 (33.3%) for 7.35pts (+35%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 6/15 (40%) for 7.6pts (+50.6%) at Class 6
  • and 3/10 (30%) for 5.64pts (+56.4%) in August...

...whilst in races worth less than £8k with horses placed LTO less than three weeks earlier, the pair are 6 from 16 (37.5% SR) for 12.84pts (+80.2% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sambucca Spirit @ 11/4 BOG or bigger as was available at 8.30am Saturday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th August 2020

Thursday's pick was...

6.00 Lingfield : Escalade @ 4/1 BOG 8th at 7/2 (Led, ridden and headed over 1f out, weakened quickly final furlong) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

1.40 Fontwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Compadre @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m6f on Good ground worth £2,794 to the winner...

Why?...

Short but hopefully sweet today, starting, as is often the case, with the Geegeez racecard...

...with a 9 yr old gelding who won a Class 4, 3 mile chase off a mark of 112 at Uttoxeter 11 days ago. He now drops in class and runs off 104 here for a yard that has done well recently with LTO winners.

In fact, that recent record of 4 wins from 11 for James Evans' LTO winners over the last two years is just a part of a record since 2016 where his LTO winners are 7 from 21 (33.3% SR) for 17.12pts (+81.5% ROI) when sent off shorter than 10/1.

The other aspect I want to consider this morning is the drop in class, because since the start of 2015, handicap hurdlers sent off at 4/1 or shorter dropped down one class from a handicap chase win LTO are 15 from 24 (62.5% SR) for 20.65pts (+86% ROI) profit, including 13 wins from 20 (65%) for 16.66pts (+83.3%) at Class 5...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Compadre @ 11/4 BOG as was available at 8.05am Friday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Fontwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th August 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

4.05 Musselburgh : Millie The Minx @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 11/2 (Tracked leaders until halfway, close up, ridden over 3f out, kept on same pace) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Escalade @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, the racecard has lots of indicators for us...

Starting with a 3 yr old (obviously) filly in decent enough nick, finishing in the frame in all three starts this season (all at this trip, twice at this level but also once at class 3). She has one win from six so far, also at this grade and ridden by today's jockey, also on a left handed track.

Our trainer, Sir Mark Prescott, has 14, 30 and C5 next to his name, suggesting his horses are running well right now and have also fared well at this venue in the past, whilst jockey Ryan Tate's 30 shows he has been amongst the winners too and then the subsequent trainer jockey combo stats show a prolonged period of success, all of which gives me a good feeling of at least getting a run for my money.

The above strike rates (20%+), A/E figures (1.25+) and IV score (1.50+) are all very impressive and when creating angles to follow, those are my own personal starting points. In fact with IV scores all north of 2.0 and plenty of profit, these are really good numbers, but you can see that for yourself.

So, what can I add that you might not already know?

Well, I believe that 1m4f is a bit of a specialist trip and since the start of 2017 at odds ranging from 7/4 to 15/2, our trainer's runners are 11 from 45 (24.4% SR) for 17.3pts (+38.4% ROI) profit, including of relevance today...

  • 10/33 (30.3%) for 18.8pts (+56.9%) during June to September
  • 9/31 (29%) for 18.1pts (+58.5%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 6.6pts (+34.7%) at Class 5
  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 4.23pts (+24.9%) at 6-20 dslr
  • and 4/15 (26.7%) for 12.8pts (+85.3%) with females...

...whilst in sub-£4k races during June-Sept, they are 9 from 23 (39.1% SR) for 26.1pts (+113.6% ROI), including 4/11 (36.4%) at C5, 4/10 (40%) at 6-20 dslr and 3/8 (37.5%) with females...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Escalade @ 4/1 BOG as was available at 8.05am Thursday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th August 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

3.05 Bangor : Do You Know What @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Midfield, headway to chase leaders 9th, ridden before 2 out, stayed on to press leader last, stayed on well close home, just denied by a short head) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.05 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Millie The Minx @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4½f on Soft ground worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

As is generally the case, the racecard is my way into the race...

...with an in-form 6 yr old mare hailing from an in-form yard that does well with LTO winners. Other than the sex of the horse, you've pretty much got that there in front of you and to be honest, I'd be happy to draw stumps on today's piece and say that's why I'm backing this one.

If I did want to seek further reassurance, my next step would be to see if the horse would be suited to today's conditions and an opening glance at her record shows a fairly uninspiring 4 from 34 (11.8% SR), but she does come here seeking a hat-trick in Scotland since adopting blinkers and a closer look at those 34 runs gives me more confidence as they include under today's conditions...

  • 4/11 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 3/13 at 6-14 dslr
  • 3/11 in fields of 9-10 runners
  • 2/14 on the Flat
  • 2/12 in handicaps
  • 2/12  at class 6
  • 2/11 on soft ground
  • 2/11 going right handed
  • 2/10 under jockey James Sullivan
  • 2/3 in August
  • and 2/2 in blinkers

Trainer Dianne Sayer's excellent 2yr record with LTO winners above does also include her NH runners of course, so with today's contest in mind, I'm just going to add in that they include 6 winners from 11 (54.6% SR) for 21.35pts (+194.1% ROI) profit in Flat handicaps at odds ranging from 6/4 to 15/2 and although 11 races is a small sample size, they do include many similarities to today's situation, such as...

  • 6/9 (66.6%) for 23.35pts (+259.5%) within four weeks of their last run
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 13.14pts (+219.1%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 4/5 (80%) for 14.75pts (+295%) in fields of 9-10 runners
  • 4/5 (80%) for 14.14pts (+282.8%) at class 6
  • 3/4 (75%) for 12.34pts (+308.5%) in Scotland
  • 3/4 (75%) for 11.52pts (+288%) in blinkers
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 9.72pts (+324%) with 6 yr olds
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 3.92pts (+130.7%) in August
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 11.65pts (+582.3%) on soft ground...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Millie The Minx @ 4/1 BOG (or bigger in places) as was available at 8.05am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th August 2020

Monday's pick was...

3.10 Ayr : Equidae @ 4/1 BOG WON at 5/1 (Tracked leader, challenged 2f out, soon led, ridden and kept on well final furlong) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Bangor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Do You Know What @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £3,574 to the winner... 

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?...

As usual, the racecard holds several clues...

As you can see by their respective 14, 30 and C5 icons, the Skeltons are in good form and have a good record at this track. The report angle shows they are 3 from 6 together over the last fortnight and then my own (once-again imaginatively entitled) angles tell me that Dan Skelton is one of a number of trainers who do well with Class 4/5 chasers (not all 2876 runners are his!) and he's also one of mine to follow over fences here at Bangor and I'll explain those two angles briefly for you.

We'll start with C4/5 Chs and this is the criteria I apply to the Skelton chasers...

...which has generated the following pretty self-explanatory results.

If we now take a quick look at Dan Skelton's Bangor chasers, we see that those sent off at 9/1 or shorter since the start of 2015 are...

including of relevance today...

  • 9/27 (33.3%) for 19.23pts (+71.2%) with Harry Skelton in the saddle
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 22.23pts (+92.6%) within 60 days of their last run
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 8.25pts (+91.7%) over this course and distance
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 11.94pts (+298.4%) on soft ground...

...whilst Harry + 1-60dslr = 9/22 (40.9% SR) for 24.23pts (+110.1% ROI), inc 2/4 at C&D and 2/3 on soft.

One last thing that I want to touch on is the adoption of cheekpieces today. This 7 yr old mare has only worn them once before and that was eight races and almost two years ago, but I'm always interested in chasers suddenly sporting headgear, because...

...during May to September (my summer chasing season) since the start of 2016, handicap chasers sent off at Evens to 15/2 wearing headgear after failing to make the frame without any LTO are...

Now, it could just be coincidental, but that's a lot of winners/profit from a decent sample size to be pure chance, surely? And from those 240 runners, we have...

  • 59/223 (26.5%) for 96.1pts (+43.1%) in fields of 5-12 runners
  • 51/198 (25.8%) for 77.6pts (+39.2%) at 6-60 dslr
  • 42/154 (27.3%) for 69.2pts (+44.9%) in cheekpieces
  • 38/124 (30.7%) for 88.9pts (+71.7%) were beaten by more than 15 lengths LTO
  • and 24/96 (25%) for 42.3pts (+44%) stepped up in trip by up to 5.5 furlongs

As I said, it could be pure coincidence, but those wearing cheekpieces in 5-12 runner contests 6-60 days after being beaten by more than 15 lengths are 21 from 59 (35.6% SR) for 58.3pts (+98.8% ROI), including 3 from 3 in the last four weeks...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Do You Know What @ 4/1 BOG (or bigger in places) as was available at 8.20am Tuesday (a bit later than usual after a swathe of non-runners), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Bangor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th August 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.10 York : Ben Macdui @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Tracked leaders, ridden and every chance over 1f out, no extra towards finish) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Equidae @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Going to keep things nice and simple today, starting as usual with our self-explanatory racecard...

So, horse running pretty well, top of the Speed Ratings and representing an in-form yard. The elephant in the room from the racecard is trainer Iain Jardine's poor return over the last year at this venue denoted by the C1, of course. However that refers to all his runners here over the past 12 months, NH & Flat, handicap and non-hcp etc etc. It also only represents a small time frame and in certain circumstances, the Jardine runners are worth following here, as...

...since 2015 in Class 4-6 Flat handicaps over 6f to 1m5½f at odds of 7/4 to 13/2, the numbers are far more attractive at...

... an A/E of over 1.5, a near 1 in 3 win ratio and almost 65p in the pound profits at Betfair SP are all good to see and eliminate plenty of bets we'd not want to be making. And from those 48 runners above...

  • 14/41 (34.2%) for 33.7pts (+82.2%) racing off a mark (OR) higher than 55
  • 11/29 (37.9%) for 25.8pts (+88.9%) had raced in the previous 15 days
  • 11/26 (42.3%) for 26.2pts (+100.8%) had made the frame LTO
  • and 6/12 (50%) for 17.1pts (+142.5%) had finished third LTO...

...whilst those racing off a mark higher than 55 within 15 days of a placed finish LTO are 7 from 14 (50% SR) for 17.2pts (+122.6% ROI), including 3 winners from 5 (60%) for 10pts (+200%) from those who were third LTO...

...and this simple approach points to... a 1pt win bet on Equidae @ 4/1 BOG (or bigger in places) as was available at 8.05am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th August 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.10 York : Ben Macdui @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Tracked leaders, ridden and every chance over 1f out, no extra towards finish) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Equidae @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Going to keep things nice and simple today, starting as usual with our self-explanatory racecard...

So, horse running pretty well, top of the Speed Ratings and representing an in-form yard. The elephant in the room from the racecard is trainer Iain Jardine's poor return over the last year at this venue denoted by the C1, of course. However that refers to all his runners here over the past 12 months, NH & Flat, handicap and non-hcp etc etc. It also only represents a small time frame and in certain circumstances, the Jardine runners are worth following here, as...

...since 2015 in Class 4-6 Flat handicaps over 6f to 1m5½f at odds of 7/4 to 13/2, the numbers are far more attractive at...

... an A/E of over 1.5, a near 1 in 3 win ratio and almost 65p in the pound profits at Betfair SP are all good to see and eliminate plenty of bets we'd not want to be making. And from those 48 runners above...

  • 14/41 (34.2%) for 33.7pts (+82.2%) racing off a mark (OR) higher than 55
  • 11/29 (37.9%) for 25.8pts (+88.9%) had raced in the previous 15 days
  • 11/26 (42.3%) for 26.2pts (+100.8%) had made the frame LTO
  • and 6/12 (50%) for 17.1pts (+142.5%) had finished third LTO...

...whilst those racing off a mark higher than 55 within 15 days of a placed finish LTO are 7 from 14 (50% SR) for 17.2pts (+122.6% ROI), including 3 winners from 5 (60%) for 10pts (+200%) from those who were third LTO...

...and this simple approach points to... a 1pt win bet on Equidae @ 4/1 BOG (or bigger in places) as was available at 8.05am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 17th to 22nd August 2020

We kicked off the week at -4.67pts for August, but I wasn't too concerned as it was Ebor week. I checked and re-checked my logs and yes, Ebor is a good time for me. I've made good money from the meeting every year for as long as I can remember, especially with two year olds, so bring it on!

Sadly, it was a week that disappointed and frustrated in equal measures, York became a graveyard for my personal bets and the three I put up for SotD all failed to make the frame. Thankfully we'd bagged a couple of winners earlier in the week to prevent a second consecutive wipeout.

Both of those winners were however frustratingly subjected to Rule 4 deductions denying us 1.72pts profit, meaning that we enter the run-in for August still 1 winner/2.88pts short of parity. It's far from over, of course, but I think we're going to need three winners before the month is out.

Chris

Selections & Results : 17/08/20 to 22/08/20

17/08 : Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 5/1
18/08 : Saluti @ 7/2 BOG (2.98/1 after a 15p R4) WON at 9/4
19/08 : Mon Palois @ 4/1 BOG (2.8/1 after R4) WON at 13/8
20/08 : Mark of the Man @ 6/1 BOG 6th at 6/1
21/08 : Yazaman @ 9/2 BOG 6th at 3/1
22/08 : Ben Macdui @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/2

17/08/20 to 22/08/20 :
2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +1.78pts

August 2020 :
4 winners from 19 = 21.05% SR
P/L: -2.88pts
ROI = -15.17%

2020 to date :
25 winners from 130 = 19.23% SR
P/L: +7.81pts
ROI = +6.01%

Overall:
681 winners from 2595 = 26.24% SR
P/L: +539.68pts
ROI: +20.79%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is
here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are
now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.