Tag Archive for: The Shortlist

Racing Insights, Tuesday 03/09/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where we've two runners in the same race at Brighton. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.20 Goodwood
  • 3.05 Southwell
  • 4.40 Goodwood
  • 4.50 Southwell
  • 6.30 Southwell

...and with Aggagio and Master Milliner from the Shortlist running in one of our free races, it makes sense to look at the 4.40 Goodwood (a race Aggagio won in 2022), an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right handed 2m on good ground...

Only the afore-mentioned Master Milliner managed to win last time out. but Beamish was a runner-up and both The Grand Visir & East India Dock finished third, the former doing so for the second successive race.

Calling The Wind won his penultimate race, LTO-winner Master Milliner is three from his last seven, Ben Lilly is two from six and East India Dock won five starts ago. Beamish, Aggagio, Diamond Bay and The Grand Visir are, however, winless in 7, 7, 8 and 30 races respectively.

Only the top three in the weights ran at Class 2 last time out with the other five all stepping up in class at least one level with Aggagio and Ben Lilly up two classes. This pair might also be in need of a run after respective absences of 155 and 225 days, but Calling The Wind has been off the track longer than the previous pair combined, as he now runs for the first time in just over 13 months.

As the sole 3yo in the field, bottom weight Est India Dock is afforded a huge 11lbs allowance, but he's one of only two runners (along with Beamish) yet to win over today's trip. Our two runners from the Shortlist, Master Milliner and Aggagio are former course and distance winners, whilst Calling The Wind won here over 2m4½f way back in July 2021 as seen on Instant Expert below...

Most of the field have decent place stats, but Diamond Bay and The Grand Visir both look weak, whilst from a win perspective, it's our Shortlisted duo plus Ben Lilly who catch the eye.

As you'd expect for two mile flat race, there doesn't seem to be much to be had from the draw...

...but the pace angle is a different kettle of fish. Hold-up horses have the worst place record and front-runners tend to get reeled in by those just behind, so it's best to avoid leaders and hold-up types for win bets and hold-up horses for place purposes...

...which, based on the field's last few runs, would suggest that Aggaggio will be the one with the target on his back...

...whilst the pace/draw heat map suggests that Aggagio and East India Dock are the least advantaged...

Summary

Aggagio, Ben Lilly and Calling The Wind look like they might need the run and Diamond Bay has only made the frame once in eight starts, so I don't really want to back any of those.

The Grand Visir has been third in each of his last two, but only 4 ran last time out and he has lost 30 on the bounce, so I can't back him either, effectively leaving me with Beamish, Master Milliner and East India Dock against the field.

As of 7.15pm on Monday, this trio were best priced at 13/2, 9/2 and 11/8 as the top three in the market. 11/8 about East India Dock doesn't scream value to me, so he's not for me and the tentative play here is an E/W suggestion at 13/2 with Beamish.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 27/08/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the first three would certainly be of interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 1.40 Musselburgh
  • 2.55 Ripon
  • 3.40 Musselburgh
  • 6.15 Bellewstown

...but to be honest, the days racing is really pooor and I think I'm actually going to swerve the whole lot and just look at the day's highest-rated race.

OK, so that's going to be the 6.25 Stratford, a 6-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over almost 2m3½f on good/good to firm ground. It's not an ideal race to cover, but it's the best on the day and here's the card...

AL ZARAQAAN won four chases on the bounce last summer and won again at Cartmel back in May. Well beaten in two runs since finishing 12th of 13 and 13th of 16, but does drop in class/trip today.

EL BORRACHO last won just over a year ago at Bangor and hasn't tackled a fence since finishing last of 11 back at the same track in May. Since then he has been well beaten in a 2m Flat race and a 2m4f hurdle, but was 3rd of 9 over 1m6f at Haydock earlier this month.

LA DOMANIALE was a course and distance winner here just over two years ago and has only raced seven times since. She won at Aintree in May 2023 and was 3rd of 7 here over C&D a year ago before ending the season as a runner-up at Worcester. her seasonal return saw her just 15th of 16 at Market Rasen, but she's down in class/trip here.

ONEMOREFORTHEROAD won a 2m2f chase at Kempton back in April for a second success inside four outings and was a Kempton runner-up next time out, but has been 6th of 8 and 9th of 13 in two runs since, so much will depend which version of this useful chaser turns up.

ROTTEN ROW had a run of eight defeats between chase wins at Tramore in August 2023 and here at Stratford over 2m4½f in early June on his penultimate outing. Subsequently beaten by nine lengths as fourth home of eleven at Cartmel, a current mark of 118 might be a tad too high for him as he steps up two classes.

GREY SKIES won back to back chases at Sedgefield and Perth in March/April 2023, but has failed to win any of eleven starts since, despite four runner-up finishes and is up in class after a 54 length defeat at Bangor last time out. He has, however, had wind surgery since that run and also wears a tongue-tie for the first time today.

The two-year Instant Expert overview doesn't really push me in any direction, but it does raise queries about bottom weight Grey Skies...

...pretty self-explanatory stuff, of course. Grey Skies doesn't seem suited by the going, El Borracho has the worst Class 2 record, Rotten Row would probably prefer a different trip and he's 7lbs higher than his last win. He has made the frame on one of those three distance defeats and Grey Skies has made the frame twice on this going, but El Borracho is still struggling for class, according to the place stats...

Small field chases over this kind of trip here at Stratford have favoured horses willing to get n with things and set the tempo, which might well be El Borracho's saving grace if recent efforts are anything to go by...

...but he's likely to have company from Onemorefortheroad here.

Summary

Not much to discuss here to be honest, but my thoughts are that Rotten Row is probably the least poor of a bad bunch running in what looks a really poor race for a Class 2 handicap. My issue with Rotten Row, though, is that he's currently (4.45pm Monday) only a 2/1 shot and there's no value there for me. The other five were bracketed in the 9/2 to 13/2 range, so no scope for an E/W bet just yet and my advice here would be to not have a bet.

If I was to pick one, it'd be a tentative nudge towards Grey Skies after a wind op and a drop in trip or maybe a very small E/W punt on current 13/2 outsider El Borracho (based on the pace angle) if he was to drift a little further.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 20/08/24

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...plus we also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 3.10 Kempton
  • 5.40 Nottingham
  • 5.50 Roscommon
  • 6.10 Nottingham

And I think we'll take a look at Zero Carbon and the 4.45 Kempton, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 7f on standard to slow polytrack...

Only Brasil Power managed to win last time out and that was his second win in his last five starts, whilst all bar Revolutionise and Follow Your Heart have won at least one of their last seven.

This pair have lost ten and nine on the bounce respectively, although the former was the only other runner in this field to make the frame last time out. This pair might struggle again here as they're both up in class, as is bottom weight Big R, but top weight Hieronymous is down a grade here, whilst Wallop wears a visor for the first time today.

Aljati hasn't raced for 81 days but all his rivals have had at least one run in the past 46 days with four of them being seen in the last week!

Pjanoo is the only runner without a previous course or distance win. Wallop and Big R have already won here over 6f, whilst Aljari and Society Lion have won over this trip elsewhere. Five of the field (Hieronymus, Zero Carbon, Brasil Power, Revolutionise & Follow Your Heart) are course and distance winners and Instant Expert looks like this...

...with Zero Carbon leading the way, as you'd expect. Revolutionise has struggled to win over this trip, Follow Your Heart looks weak on going/track, whilst Society Lion has yet to win at Class 4 on the A/W and having only made the frame once in those six defeats...

...is likely to struggle again, although Revolutionise's numbers now appear much better. If we then look at past similar races, our draw analyser says that whilst there's not a huge draw bias at play here, those drawn highest have had less success than the others...

...which isn't great news for Hieronymus, Brasil Power, Zero Carbon or Big R, but I'm not sure the draw alone would mean a horse couldn't win here if the correct tactics were employed and the best tactics here would be to hit the front as soon as you could and then stay there. Easier said than done of course, but here's how those 300+ races have panned out...

...which looks to be more conclusive than the draw stats and would indicate that Zero Carbon might well be in the box seat, if his last three runs are anything to go by...

Summary

I initially thought that LTO C&D winner Brasil Power would be the one to beat here, but he doesn't seem well suited by either pace nor draw. he's also up 5lbs here and that might well make him susceptible to Zero Carbon. He's the qualifier from the shortlist and caught the eye on Instant Expert. He's got the ideal pace profile to win this to add to his three previous course and distance wins.

Brasil Power looked a bit shot at 9/4 as of 5pm Monday, meaning that Zero Carbon's 7/1 ticket was very appealing and borderline for an E/W option.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 13/08/24

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...with two runners to consider along with our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.15 Lingfield
  • 6.30 Hamilton
  • 7.00 Hamilton

...so it makes sense to me for us to look at Good Morning Alex from The Shortlist and the 7.00 Hamilton in general. It's an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m1f on soft ground...

FORM : Giselles Defence won last time out and has won 2 of his last three and has 3 wins and 2 places from his last seven. Lunario comes here on a hat-trick and has 3 wins and 3 places from his last six. Our featured runner Good Morning Alex has won has last three and is 4 from 5 and is 6 from his last 8.

Stand Strong is a 3-race maiden despite making the frame in each of his races, whilst Theoryofeverything is the only other runner without a win in his last five outings, having been beaten in all nine outings since scoring on debut at Doncaster just over 14 months ago.

CLASS : Lots of movers today, as only the afore-mentioned Theoryofeverything raced at Class 3 last time out. Six runners (Arctic Mountain, Indemnity, Tele Red, Bubbles Wonky, Good Morning Alex & Classy Boy) step up from Class 4, whilst Stand Strong, Giselles Defence & Lunario all step up from Class 5. Only Paddy the Squire ran at a higher level last time out, finishing as a Class 2 runner-up.

AGE/WEIGHT : the bottom three on the card (Bubbles Wonky, Good Morning Alex & Classy Boy) are all aged 3 and receive an 8lb allowance for that.

WHAT'S NEW : Paddy The Squire runs for the first time since a wind op and Stand Strong makes a handicap debut and yard debut today on his first run since being gelded.

LAST SEEN : Most of the field have raced in the last 10 to 33 days, but Arctic Mountain (60d) & Good Morning Alex (68d) have had a couple of months rest, whilst it's almost a year (354 days to be precise) since Paddy the Squire was last in action and the thick end of 22 months since Stand Strong lined up.

COURSE/DISTANCE : Seven runners have raced here a total of nine times with Good Morning Alex winning both starts here and Lunario is 1 from 1. As for the 1m1f trip, four runners have a combined 1 win from 5 attempts with Good Morning Alex the sole winner, as his two wins here were at 1m½f and then over this course and distance.

Instant Expert shows those course/distance wins I mentioned above and it's good to see that most of those who have tackled soft ground have managed to make the frame with five of them going on to win. Theoryofeverything looks vulnerable at Class 3 and Good Morning Alex, Arctic Mountain and Giselles Defence are all rated at least 7lbs higher than their last win...

Whilst some of these stood out on form, the field looks quite open based on those graphics above, so let's look and see if the draw might be a factor today...

It doesn't seem to have a huge draw bias, runners in stall 1 have struggled, as have those drawn 10 or higher, but the majority of stalls have similar results to each other and it's probably going to be the pace that is the deciding factor here, as horses willing to crack on with things have had the most success...

...which based on the field's most recent efforts could be more good news for Good Morning Alex...

...and they might well go off at a fair old lick today with no real hold-up types in the race. A 4-race pace average of 2.25 is rarely the lowest score in a race of this many runners and if I was relying on that pace chart above and discounting the runners in stalls 1, 10 & 11 based on the draw stats, I'd be looking at...

...from pace/draw, but I'd be very wary about Stand Strong after such a long absence.

Summary

From pace/draw, I'd consider Good Morning Alex, Arctic Mountain, Lunario and Bubbles Wonky, whilst on form, it would be Giselles Defence, Lunario and our featured runner Good Morning Alex from The Shortlist.

So I'm having Good Morning Alex and Lunario as two of my three for the frame. Bubbles Wonky hasn't ran well in his last three outings, so I'll overlook him, which leaves me with a choice between Arctic Mountain and Giselles Defence as my third runner and whilst there's not much between them, I suspect we'll have more chance of getting an E/W bet out of Giselles Defence, so that where I'll go.

The market looked like this at 4.45pm Monday...

...which means that Lunario is also in E/W territory for me.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 06/08/24

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

As usual we still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 6.00 Roscommon
  • 7.00 Roscommon
  • 7.17 Chelmsford
  • 8.47 Chelmsford

...but Salamanca Lad from the The Shortlist feature interests me more than the two UK A/W races above, so let's head towards Trimsaran for the 4.50 Ffos Las, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3yo flat handicap over a left-handed mile on good to firm ground...

SALAMANCA LAD comes here in great form, completing a hat-trick of one mile wins when scoring at Sandown six days ago. A 6lb penalty for a half length win makes life tougher here, as he's now 14lbs higher than five weeks here.

ARKHALIA FLYNN has raced just five time and has made the frame in each of his last three, winning once, He's down in class here after a decent third of eight at Yarmouth almost three weeks ago where the pace of the contest didn't seem to suit him.

DASHINWHITESARGENT got home by a neck in a novice race at Wolverhampton last time out to open his account at the sixth attempt. He's now back in a handicap off the same mark as when second at Epsom in April, so could go well here too.

FASTER BEE has yet to make the frame in six Flat outings and is an 11-race maiden overall. His two handicap runs this season have seen him come home 9th of 11 and last of ten, beaten by around seven lengths each time. He's down in class and weight here, but I don't like him for this one.

RUN FOR THE SUN has yet to win a race after five starts and hasn't made the frame since finishing second of nine at Yarmouth on debut a year ago. Was only third of five at Doncaster last time out, beaten by three lengths and others make more appeal to me here.

QUESTIONABLE has only made the frame once in six starts when she was a runner-up beaten by a short head at Haydock in late-May. She hasn't kicked on since, finishing 4th of 10 and 7th of 9 in two subsequent runs and was a good 8 lengths off the pace last time out.

So far, this looks like a race of two halves with the top half of the card vying for the two places, whilst the bottom half of the card will be trying not to get beat by too much!

Salamanca Lad has won four of twelve starts, but his five rivals are a combined 2 from 33, having made the frame in just 10 of those 33 so I'm guessing that we'll get more info from the stat side of Instant Expert than we will from the win data...

Once again, it looks like we should be focusing on the top half of the card and the class 5 results fort he bottom half tell their own story here. Salamanca Lad's 6lb rise could be an issue, too as could his draw out on stall five. There's not a huge draw bias here, but those drawn lower have tended to get the better of an admittedly small sample size of races...

...but I suspect the tempo of the race aka pace will be more of a determining feature here and that's true to an extent, as leaders have had the best of it here...

and these stats then, in turn, help to form part of this pace/draw heat map...

...which suggests that many pace/draw combos have a chance here, but if we look at how our field have approached their most recent races, we see that the pace is going to come from the two drawn highest, placing them firmly in the green here...

...but it's Arkhalia Flynn who looks most ideally positioned of the six.

Summary

From the write-ups and Instant Expert, the top half of the field ie Salamanca Lad (from the The Shortlist feature), Arkhalia Flynn and Dashinwhitesargent were the ones to focus on. Arkhalia Flynn has the slightly better draw and subsequent pace/draw combo and this allied to Salamanca Lad's 6lb penalty makes Arkhalia Flynn my tentative pick here in what will be a close affair.

Salamanca Lad should, in turn, have too much for Dashinwhitesargent, so it's an Arkhalia Flynn/Salamanca Lad 1-2 for me today.

Only bet365 had opened the book by 4.15pm Monday and here's how they saw it...

Racing Insights, Tuesday 30/07/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points
The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.
HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

My fairly restrictive settings (you get to choose your own) for The Shortlist have generated the following qualifiers..

...and as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 3.00 Goodwood
  • 3.10 Yarmouth
  • 5.55 Goodwood
  • 6.35 Ffos Las
  • 8.15 Galway

The logical place to start would be with 15-scoring Kinross in the 3.00 Goodwood from our 'free' list, of course and whilst other writers here on Geegeez are probably better qualified to write about this race, it's a useful exercise to see how the toolkit can be applied to a top-class race like this 8-runner, Group 2, 3yo+ flat contest over a right-handed 7f on good ground...

Tiber Flow fell two starts ago when clipping heels at York, but came back to win at Haydock last time out. English Oak has gone one better and comes here on a hat-trick after handicap wins at Haydock and Ascot, whilst Noble Dynasty has won his last four including a Group 3 success last time out.

English Oak will find this tougher, stepping up in class as the only runner in the field who didn't race at Class 1 last time around and all eight horses have raced at least once in the last 17 (Kinross) to 52 (Tiber Flow) days, so we should have no fitness issues.

Audience, Art Power, Kinross and Chicago Critic have all won two of their last seven (six for the latter), but Pogo is on a run of eight defeats since a Group 2 success back in October 2022. Art Power and Chicago Critic have yet to win over today's trip, whilst only Kinross has won here at Goodwood in the past, scoring over course and distance twice when winning this very race in 2021 and 2023. Instant Expert says that his Class 1 record is the best on show today over the last two years...

...and it is he and Noble Dynasty that catch the eye here. Pogo and Tiber Flow have poor win ratios at Class 1 and the former has also struggled to score over this trip. Kinross is lightly raced on good ground, but over the last two years has four wins and a place from six efforts on good to firm or good to soft.

After looking at the two-year place stats...

...I'm ready to dismiss Art Power, Pogo and Tiber Flow as I head to see whether there's anything to be had from the draw and it looks like 'low is go!'...

...which is a tad unfortunate as I've just dismissed the runners in stalls 1 and 3! As for the pace of those races above, those setting the fractions appear to have done best of all, but hold-up types also have a good record as shown below on both the pace stats and the pace/draw heat map...

So, the ideal make-up is a low or high draw for front runners or for a hold-up horse from a low draw and based on this field's last few runs...

...Pogo is becoming a bit of a fly in the ointment with his low draw and front-running style! The stats say he could well make the frame, but form suggests otherwise for me. Noble Dynasty ticks the high-drawn leader box for us here whilst Chicago Critic might have a squeak of a chance from the back of the field, seeing as I'm already against Tiber Flow!

Summary

It has to be Noble Dynasty and Kinross for me and probably in that order and I'm not in the least surprised to see them as the 10/3 joint favs at 4pm on Monday. As for the others, they're all in with a chance of nicking a place, I suppose.

Only Chicago Critic (16/1), Art Power (25/1) and Pogo (25/1) were priced higher than my usual 8/1 E/W cut-off price and if I had to choose one of those three to outrun the odds, it would probably be Chicago Critic, but he'll need a career best effort. That said, he is well in at the weights, carrying 12lbs less than the highest-rated runner Audience who is supposedly 11lbs better than him.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 23/07/24

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with a couple at least worth a second glance. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for this Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 3.30 Lingfield
  • 4.15 Musselburgh
  • 6.53 Ballinrobe
  • 7.53 Ballinrobe

There's one Class 3 race in the UK on Tuesday, but I don't do Novice events, so the remaining 21 races are either Class 5 or Class 6, the most valuable of which features Rock Melody from The Shortlist, so let's have a look at that 3.45 Musselburgh, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good ground...

Eight year old Ghathanfar is the oldest runner in the field, but comes here a fortnight after finishing third of nine at Pontefract beaten by little more than half a length, whilst Le Beau Garcon won by a similar margin (beating the re-opposing Khabib into second) at Thirsk four weeks ago.

None of the other eight runners managed to make the frame on their last outings and aside from Le Beau Garcon, only Profitable Edge (twice), Ziggy's Queen, Classy Al and Albegone (twice) have managed a win in their last seven outings; Khabib, Rock Melody, Ghathanfar, Vadamiah and Pockley are on losing runs of 9, 7, 23, 10 and 14 races respectively with the last of that quintet, Pockley, yet to win on Turf after 26 attempts!

Of the ten, only Ghathanfar ran at this grade with all of his rivals actually dropping in class today. Most drop down from Class 4, but Rock Melody, Classy Al and Pockley all drop down two levels here and none of the field should have any fitness/sharpness issues, as they've all raced in the last 14 (Ghathanfar) to 37 (Rock Melody) days.

All ten have also won over today's trip at least once and three (Ziggy's Queen, Rock Melody & Albegone) have all won over course distance, whilst Ghathanfar was a winner here over 7f just over four years ago, which, of course, won't show up on the 2yr record on Instant Expert!

As you'd expect Rock Melody from The Shortlist is the immediate eye-catcher here, as most of the field have poor records on good ground. Classy Al has struggled to win at Class 5 and the trip has been an issue for Khabib, Le Beau Garcon, Ziggy's Queen and Vadamiah, but two of this quartet do have have good place stats...

...with only the runners in stalls 1 & 10 (Pockely & Khabib) having no green at all. It's a straight 5f on good ground, so you wouldn't expect the draw to have too much influence, but for some reason those drawn more centrally have struggled to win, whilst those drawn highest have the best place records...

...whilst in terms of pace/tactics, those 65 races above have tended to favour front runners, like most straight 5f races do in fairness...

...which gives us a bit of a mixed bag on the pace/draw heat map...

...where the three most successful combos are high drawn leaders, low drawn leaders and high drawn mid-division runners, so let's see how this field have approached their recent races...

Summary

The low-drawn front runner Ghathanfar is the obvious starting point, but despite a recent run of results reading 32303, he still strikes me more as a placer than a winner having failed to win any of his last 23 races. Vadamiah ticks the high drawn leader box, but he's also winless in ten, making the frame in just two of those defeats.

This brings Khabib into the equation next, as the high-drawn mid-division runner and although he was only fifth last time out, he was a half-length runner-up to the in-form Le Beau Garcon two starts ago on the latter's last outing and Khabib is now 2lbs better off today. We should also remember Rock Melody from The Shortlist who has ideal conditions here.

That said, I suspect the in-form Le Beau Garcon will be the one to beat here with Khabib, Rock Melody and Ghathanfar scrapping for the places behind him. We had no market at 3pm Monday, but I'd be looking at getting a reasonable (4/1-ish?) price about LBG and then taking a small E/W punt on whichever of Khabib, Rock Melody and Ghathanfar (if any!) trade at 8/1 or bigger.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 16/07/24

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with one of obviously more interest than the other. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.15 Nottingham
  • 4.00 Beverley
  • 4.15 Nottingham
  • 7.30 Kempton

And Sod's Law dictates that's the less interesting runner from The Shortlist that runs in one of our 'free' races, but hat race is still the most appealing of the four listed, so let's focus on Drama and his eight opponents in the 7.30 Kempton, a Class 4, A/W handicap for three year old runners over a straight 6f on standard to slow polytrack...

None of these managed to win last time out, but featured runner Drama was a runner-up as was Tennessee Gold, whilst Gutsy Girl was third for the second race in a row since reappearing from a nine-month break. Rosa Applause was fourth here over course and distance denying her a hat-trick and True Promise has won two of his four career starts.

Secret Bid is two from five, Drama won two starts ago, Tennessee Gold was a winner three races back and both Media Shooter and Boann are two from seven, leaving just Eulace Peacock without a 'recent' win or win of any kind, as he's 0 from 7 career starts.

Eulace Peacock has moved yards since his last defeat 14 weeks ago and now debuts for Martin Dunne, making just a second handicap appearance, as do Rosa Applause and Gutsy Girl. Eulace Peacock's cause won't be helped by a step up in class, though as both he and Tennessee Gold move up from Class 5, whilst True promise and Media Shooter drop one and two classes respectively.

We know that Eulace Peacock hasn't raced for 14 weeks, but all of his rivals have raced in the last 15 (Boann) to 31 (Media Shooter) days, which might put this out of form runner at yet another disadvantage.

As a seven-race maiden, he clearly has no course or distance wins to his name, but of his eight rivals, only Secret Bid has yet to win over today's trip, whilst Drama, Media Shooter, Boann and Tennessee Gold have all prevailed over course and distance...

Instant Expert backs up Drama's position on The Shortlist, but also shows the most experienced runner in the field (13 starts), Media Shooter, in a really good light too...

Obviously Eulace Peacock has no winning form and Gutsy Girl makes an A/W debut after finishes of 4133 on the Flat, whilst True Promise's 2 from 2 A/W record is from the tapeta at Newcastle. Tennessee Gold might well be receiving weight from most of these, but he's now 11lbs higher than his last win (C&D three starts ago) and 3lbs higher than two subsequent defeats, so he might be in the assessor's grip.

The place stats tell a similar story to the win stats and are fairly self-explanatory...

Let's now look at the draw, because there really shouldn't be a massive bias over a straight six furlongs on an artificial surface, but here's the data from the last couple of years...

And whilst there does seem a gradual decline in success the higher a horse is drawn, I wouldn't personally says that there's a huge advantage in getting a low draw. It is certainly useful and the likes of Tennessee Gold, Gutsy Girl and Secret Bid will be pleased, but I suspect that (as in most sprints) pace will be the key to the race and here we're looking (as in most sprints) for prominent/front runners...

...which based on the field's recent exploits, could be good news for Rosa Applause, but not so great for Tennessee Gold

Summary

It's a pretty open contest here and I agree with the market as of 5.15pm Monday, in that any one of at least five runners could win this...

...but I think that pace wins the race and that the in-form front runner Rosa Applause is the one for me at 9/2. She's in great nick, her yard are firing at the moment and they have a good record at this venue. Her jockey rides well here and he's also in good form, so it's Rosa Applause for me. Yes, she was just over 1.25 lengths behind Drama last time out, but she's 5lbs better off here and that swings it.

I'd expect good runs from the likes of Drama and Media Shooter based on their past records under similar circumstances, but Secret Bid might just be worth an E/W bet at 12/1 as he drops to 6f for the first time. He likes to be up with the pace and having weakened in the final furlong on his last two efforts over 7f, the drop to 6 might just suit.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 09/07/24

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where all of them must be worth at least a quick look. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.40 Pontefract
  • 4.55 Lingfield
  • 5.05 Uttoxeter
  • 5.10 Tramore

Now, I see that Delta Legend from The Shortlist runs in one of those free races above, but it looks a poor contest and I think I'd rather look at a higher category of race like the 3.40 Pontefract, an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 6f on good to firm ground...

This actually looks like a really open race today, so let's see if we can glean any pointers from the toolkit. None of them seem to be coming here in much form with bottom weight Flaccianello's runner-up finish in an eleven-runner race at York 25 days ago, the best of the field's last efforts, none of the others even made the frame. That said, only Silky Wilkie and Woven have failed to win any of their last six outings and they come here on streaks of fifteen and nine defeats respectively.

With the above in mind, I can't see Woven's chances being enhanced by a step up in class, as does Wen Moon, whilst Room Service drops down from finishing 6th of 14 in a Listed race to come here for just his second handicap outing. Coachella and Wen Moon wear tongue-ties for the second time today and jockey Sam Feilden will take 7lbs off Silky Wilkie's allotted weight of 9st 11lbs.

All bar Silky Wilkie (off for 38 days) and Room Service (52d) have raced in the last 17-25 days so all should be race-sharp and Room Service is the only one in the race yet to score over today's trip; but he did win over 5½f on debut and also over 6½f three starts ago, so the trip shouldn't be an issue. Wen Moon is the only runner to have visited Pontefract before with one win (over this trip) and one place (over 5f) from three attempts...

Instant Expert tells us that Roman Dragon and Woven are a combined 0 from 25 at Class 2 on the Flat and that the latter is also a meagre 1 from 26 over this trip, so he's going to be tough to back here, but Roman Dragon's 5 wins from 13 over the trip is a good return. Wen Moon is hovering close to being ruled on on class (0 from 6) and distance (1 from 7) too, but let's see if his place stats come to his rescue today...

...and I suppose it just about does. he's not the strongest contender at this point, but after Instant Expert, these are the ones that I'd focus on...

...which dismisses the runners in stalls 6 and 8, so i hope that if there's a draw bias, that lower drawn runners are the ones who normally benefit! Fortunately here over 6f at Ponty, that does seem to be the case, with stalls 1-5 having the best of the wins and stalls 1-4 making the frame most often...

But getting a low-ish draw is just one half of the battle here at Pontefract, making full use of it is the key and to do so, you need to get away sharpish and be up with the pace; setting the pace from the front is even better...

...as leaders have won 31.6% of the races and taken 24.6% of the places from just 15.9% of the runners, which means that this following pace/draw heat map really shouldn't be any surprise...

...which then directs us back to the runners themselves as we try to ascertain who might race prominently or even attempt to win from the front and of the evidence of recent efforts, Matters Most is the only one who seems to enjoy being up with the pace...

I'd ignore his last run, as that was a 28-runner, 5f dash where he just couldn't get involved but he does like to be upfront, whilst Silky Wilkie is the only other one known for getting out sharp-ish, but he's over in stall 7 which isn't ideal.

Summary

It's a really open contest, this one and you could make a case for most of them. So, with that in mind, it'd be small stakes if any at all and I think I'd probably side with Matters Most over Silky Wilkie based on pace/draw with Room Service possibly the one to complete the frame.

Based on the market as of 5pm Monday...

...Silky Wilkie is definitely in E/W territory, whilst 11/2 about Matters most looks more than fair.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 02/07/24

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where we've two runners in the same race at Brighton. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.15 Hamilton
  • 2.33 Tipperary
  • 4.45 Roscommon
  • 7.00 Lingfield
  • 7.20 Roscommon

And whilst it's not the best calibre of race in the world (or even on this day!), I think I should have a look at Gallimimus and Chourmo from The Shortlist, who make up a quarter of the 8-runner field for the 3.55 Brighton, a Class 6 (all six races at Brighton are Class 6 affairs), 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

Corporate Raider and Bhubezi both won last time out, whilst Bobacious was a modest third of nine at Chepstow, which means he's still a maiden after eight attempts across a variety of race genres (4 x flat, 1 x A/W, 1 x hurdle and 1 x NHF!). Others struggling for wins are Gallimimus, Lucky Question and Irezumi with Gallimimus having lost nine on the bounce since a course and distance success a year ago, whilst Lucky Question and Irezumi are both still maidens after twelve and seventeen races respectively!

Our two runners from The Shortlist, Gallimimus and Chourmo both drop down a class here, whilst connections of Lucky Question will be hoping that a change of yard leads to an improvement in form, as hopefully will first-time cheekpieces for Irezumi. It's also a UK debut for Lucky Question after a dozen defeats in Ireland and he now runs for the first time in fourteen weeks whilst all his rivals have been out at least once in the last ten to twenty-four days.

Gallimimus and Chourmo have both won over course and distance before, whilst Corporate Raider and Dee's Dream have also scored here at Brighton in the past with the former prevailing here over 1m4f last time out and the latter also winning over that trip back in September 2023. Aside from our two course and distance winners, Corporate Raider's victory at Yarmouth a year ago is the only other win over today's trip.

As you'd expect, Gallimimus and Chourmo are the immediate eyecatchers on Instant Expert...

...but that is, of course tempered, by the former's inability to win any of nine races over the last year. Irezumi looks the weak link here and I've concerns about Dee's Dream's poor strike rate of 1 from 8 at Class 6 over the last two to supplement her overall career record of just 1 win from 19! I suppose it comes to something when a 17.65% career strike rate (Gallimimus is 3 from 17) is the best on offer in a race. I can only hope some of them have ran well, been unlucky and made the frame instead of winning...

Well, that's a prettier sight, but the end of the road for Irezumi with me for this one. Lucky Question is generally untried under these conditions, but having lost all twelve previous starts with just three places, he's also going to be tough to recommend. He's drawn out in stall seven of eight today and that might actually give him a bit more chance of getting involved here, based on past results of similar races at Brighton over the years...

...although to make best use of what looks a favourable draw, he'd be best advised to get a bit of a wriggle on early doors...

Sadly for Lucky Question, getting out sharpish doesn't seem to be his thing and I suspect the pace in this race will come from those drawn lower with the three lowest-drawn runners filling the first four spaces on our pace averages, based on their recent races...

...handing them the initiative.

Summary

Of our two runners from The Shortlist, Gallimimus and Chourmo, I prefer the latter for this contest and I'd probably suggest Chourmo as my actual winner of the race, despite not seeming to have the ideal pace profile for this course/distance. He was the last to break when scoring here two starts ago and he beat the re-opposing Corporate Raider by a neck that day.

The latter has since won here over 1m4f, of course and that puts him in a strong position here, but he carries 3lbs more than Chourmo here and they carried equal weight when Chourmo beat him, so I'm going for Chourmo to narrowly beat Corporate raider again, although there probably won't be much, if anything in it. This probably explains why they were best-priced at 4/1 and 5/1 respectively at 5.10pm on Monday.

Only Gallimimus (10/1), Irezumi (14/1) and Dee's Dream (16/1) traded above my arbitrary 8/1 E/W cut-off price, so an E/W bet is unlikely here, but it would have to be Gallimimus if any.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 25/06/24

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Huelgoat is the one of most immediate/obvious interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.17 Beverley
  • 3.00 Newton Abbot
  • 3.30 Newton Abbot
  • 4.00 Newton Abbot

I suspect Huelgoat will go off very short in a novice hurdle, a type of race I'm not keen on and the other two 'free' NH cards look like poor races too. The beverley race is a 6-runner affair for maiden fillies, so I'll swerve that too on a day where the racing is that poor that the 'best' and most valuable race of the day is a Class 4 contest worth less than £7500 to the winner. It's the 6.05 Newbury, a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m4f on good to firm ground and here's how they'll line up...

...where Raintown, a winner of two of his last six races is the only LTO winner, although top-weight Entrancement and Marhaba Million were both runners-up. The latter is a three-race maiden and Eben Zaabeel has yet to make the frame in any of his four outings, whilst In From The Cold and Wahraan are both on losing streaks of nine races, although six of the former's nine losses were actually over hurdles.

Sole filly and top-weight Entrancement is the only class mover today, as she drops down one level from a defeat by just a nose at Goodwood a month ago and although she's up 4lbs for that run, her victor, Ayyab was only beaten by 3.75 lengths in a Listed race at Pontefract yesterday (Sunday). Our two maidens, Marhaba Million and Eben Zaabeel both make handicap debuts today with the former wearing a visor for the first time.

This pair of maidens are both aged 3 and as such receive a very healthy 14lbs weight allowance for this contest, which should help their cause on handicap debut. Marhaba Million last ran just over seven weeks ago with only In from The Cold (112 days off) rested for longer, as most of the field have raced in the last two to three weeks.

Raintown is 2 from 2 over this trip at Lingfield (where he is 4 from 5 overall), but has failed to win any of eight starts on turf, but Graham won here over course and distance four races ago and has also scored over this trip at Salisbury. This pair aside, we're a little short on course and/or distance wins, as verified by Instant Expert...

...where Graham marginally looks the most suited of a bunch that really don't have much to crow about under today's conditions. That said, he hasn't fired at Class 4, but track and trip will be right up his street. Entrancement and Raintown look to be the best of the rest, but it's admittedly a pretty low bar. That said, these three runners are the pick at Class 5, too and both Graham and Entrancement made the frame on their only Class 3 outing (LTO for Entrancement as documented above).

Graham has been allocated stall 1, but past races suggest that drawn in stalls 5 and higher may have a bit of an advantage...

...but I wouldn't say that it was impossible to win from a low draw. There's not much to be gained from the pace stats from those races above...

...which suggests there's not really a right or a wrong way of approaching this race and the fact that any draw and any running style can win here is reflected in our pace/draw heat map where 7 of the 12 possible permutations are shown in green, suggesting Newbury's 1m4f trip is a fair one and the 'better' horses should be the winners...

Summary

When the pace, draw and pace/draw stats don't really identify a runner of interest and there's little help from Instant Expert, i tend to refer back to recent form and also gut feeling about who I think are the better runners in the pack.

The two maidens/handicap debutants could be dangerous with a huge weight allowance, but they're largely unknown quantities although Marhaba Million's results have been the better of the two and that's probably why Hills had him at 11/4 at 2.50pm on Monday, but those odds don't excite me.

The interest for me here in the class dropper Entrancement, who was only narrowly beaten last time out and a similar run here might make his 6/1 ticket look generous, whilst current 8/1 outsider and LTO winner Raintown could well be good enough for a place if finally transferring some of his recent excellent form to the Flat.

That said, this isn't a race to invest too heavily in on a day of pretty mediocre fayre.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 18/06/24

/in /by

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...which is very heavily Ascot-oriented, of course. We do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 3.45 Ascot
  • 4.10 Catterick
  • 6.40 Beverley
  • 8.45 Beverley

The first of our free races also has three runners on The Shortlist, but I'm not really into 17-runner sprints, so I think we'll take the third name on The Shortlist, Get Sky High and assess the 3.55 Stratford, a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed trip of 2m 145yds (after a 75yd rail movement) on good ground...

Ilanz, Get Sky High and King Otis were the 3/1 co-favourites when I started looking at this race and they were the three that I thought would fill the places. King Otis won last time out and is two from three, whilst sole mare Get Sky High comes here seeking a hat-trick. Ilanz was a runner-up last time around and Donnie Azoff finished third on his last run, but that was 229 days ago and he might need the run.

Vision des Flos is the only one without a win in five, having suffered eight defeats on the bounce and he now might also need a run after a 208-day absence and you could say the same about As Tears Go By as he makes a yard debut after 263 days off track. Forever William also debuts for his new yard, whilst featured runner, Get Sky High, runs in a handicap for just the second time and she steps up a class here, as does King Otis, whilst Donnie Azoff is up two classes.

All nine have won over a similar trip to this one, but only Donnie Azoff has scored over course and distance, although Get Sky High has won a bumper here over today's trip...

Recent form suggests that Manor Park struggles to win on good ground or at Class 3, whilst Taleit Easy has struggled at the trip. Donnie Azoff has a line of green off a small sample size with Get Sky High and King Otis catching the eye at going/trip respectively.

The place stats from those races above say that most of them should be at home under these conditions...

...with Donnie Azoff strengthening his case for making the frame whilst Ilanz looks very strong too. Past previous similar races here at Stratford have rewarded those willing to set the pace...

...which based on this field's last few outings...

...could be very good news for Get Sky High who has led in three of  his last four outings.

Summary

At the start of my analysis, I agreed with the bookies that Ilanz, Get Sky High and King Otis would be the three to focus upon and none of their six rivals have done enough above to throw me off that track, but I do think that King Otis might be the slightly weaker of the three.

Ilanz edged it on Instant Expert and Get Sky High had it on pace, but if pushed to choose between the two, I'd narrowly have ti side with Ilanz.

As of 6.15pn, you could still get 3/1 for all three runners and if one was to slip up, then Donnie Azoff might be a viable E/W pick at 11/1.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 11/06/24

/in /by

 

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

 

...with the first two of immediate interest along with our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 3.02 Salisbury
  • 5.15 Sligo
  • 6.00 Wetherby
  • 7.45 Sligo

The highest-rated of the UK races above is a Class 4 maiden and whilst I've no issue with Class 4 contests, I'm not a fan of maiden races and it's a good job I've no issue with Class 4 racing, as that's as good as it gets on Tuesday in the UK. I've selected the most valuable Fkat race in that grade for my column, as we now turn our attention to the 5.07 Salisbury, a 12-runner, Class 4 (obviously!), 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

...where this relatively inexperienced (just 62 total starts)field boasts three LTO winners in the shape of Elladonna (who is two from four), Quietness and bottom-weight Pratigya, whilst Glimmer of Light, Miss Bielsa and Xiomara all made the frame. Ciara Pearl has won three of her last four and Big Time Bridget, Meleri & Alhattan have all won at lest one of their own last four, giving us a fairly competitive race for the grade.

Elladonna, Quietness, Switchel, Glimmer of Light, Miss Bielsa, Xiomara, Frankelian and Pratigya all step up a level from Class 5, but Bigtime Bridget last raced in a Listed contest. She now wears a tongue-tie for the first time, whilst Switchel is now to be tried in a hood on her return from almost seven months off track and she's not the only one running after a break as Glimmer of Light and Frankelian have been off for 175 and 251 days respectively.

Xiomara has only raced in handicap company once before, whilst it's debut day for Bigtime Bridget, Glimmer of Light, Miss Bielsa, Frankelian and Pratigya. Elladonna was fifth of twelve over course and distance here on debut just over a year ago and she's the only one in this field to have raced at Salisbury before, but she has won over this trip in the past, as have Ciara Pearl, Meleri and Miss Bielsa.

Unfortunately with an inexperienced field, Instant Expert doesn't show a stack of data..

...from a win perspective, especially as the field have just 13 wins between albeit at a reasonable strike rate of near enough 21% overall. Obviously the place stats can't conjure up more races to cover, but they do give us a little bit of meat to add to the bones from above...

...with Quietness and Ciara Pearl probably the to best suited off limited data. Meleri's best work has been on slower ground at Class 5, but she certainly gets the trip; Pratigya makes a turf debut here after three A/W outings and these two are drawn widest of all today and the draw stats would initially suggest that this is an advantage...

...but closer inspection says there's very little in it really with those drawn centrally faring slightly worse on both win and place for some unknown reason. A slightly clearer picture emerges when we look how those races were won, as hold-up horses have really struggled to win...

...whilst racing prominently and/or leading has been the best way of making the frame, which based on the field's most recent efforts, probably isn't great news for Xiomara and Miss Bielsa...

...and whilst Elladonna and Alhattan head that graphic, there's actually no obvious out and out pace maker in the field, so it will probably land at their feet to take it on or maybe Glimmer of Light/Frankelian?

Summary

Sadly, we haven't gleaned much from the toolkit today (we are human after all!), but based on the above, form and my own personal feelings/thoughts, the three that I'd take against the field here would be Elladonna, Alhattan and Ciara Pearl in that order, but based on the prices from Hills at 3.20pm...

...I'd suggest that Ciara Pearl might be a good E/W option.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 04/06/23

/in /by

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...with Con Te Partiro of obvious immediate interest. As usual we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 4.03 Leicester
  • 5.20 Southwell
  • 6.45 Lingfield
  • 7.30 Wolverhampton

Class 4 racing is as good as it gets and with one of our shortlist horses running in one of our free races, I'm going to take a quick look at the 5.20 Southwell, where Lipa K will take on just five rivals in a Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m5f (after a 138yd rail movement) on good ground...

ELHAM VALLEY has made the frame in both starts (both here at Southwell) since moving yards and was only beaten by a head last time out just three weeks ago, but hasn't won a race beyond 2m2½f, so this might stretch him.

BELVEDERE BLAST has won over 2m4½f in the past, but looked decidedly rusty when a further three places and over 20 lengths behind Elham Valley's runner-up run here three weeks ago. In his defence, he hadn't raced for seven months and dis win three on the bounce in the first 17 days of June last year after a five-month break

COPPER BEACH hasn't been seen since a 17 length defeat last November at Wetherby and has won just once in fourteen career starts, but that was at 2m4f, which is a positive. Had has a wind op during the lay-off, but other make more appeal.

THE BIG LENSE has struggled for consistency over the last year, either running well or failing to finish (1P3F2) Was only beaten by a head over today's course and distance four weeks ago, though, when headed late on by the re-opposing Pozo Emery and this pair should be closely matched again.

LIPA K comes here on a hat-trick after winning both his efforts over fences, but whilst he runs off the same mark (110) as his last chase win a week ago, that's 4lbs higher than his last hurdles mark and despite winning back to back races over hurdles in March/May 2023, his hurdles form since then reads 535F.

POZO EMERY finished 1122 in four starts for Paul Nicholls during the 20/21 season, but his form for Laura Morgan prior to a course and distance win (beating The Big Lense) read PP3243, so he's not a shoo-in to confirm the placings from that win and is up 3lbs here.

Instant Expert says...

...that most of these have struggled to win Class 4 hurdle races with Pozo Emery the pick of the pack on the above data. The Big Lense looks particularly weak on win form and the data for Lipa K serves to remind us that Instant Expert and The Shortlist are two different reports even if they look similar! Lipa K's figures look better when you look at all NH races, as he's just gone 2 from 2 over fences.

If we then look at the place stats for those races above...

...Pozo Emery still stands out as the one most likely to relish the conditions, whilst most of the runners look half-backable now. Lipa K, however, has a dismal Class 4 hurdling record at 831535F and is 7lbs higher than his last win over these obstacles. He's also highly likely to send much of the race towards the back of the field with The Big Lense whilst the pace will probably come from Pozo Emery and/or Elham Valley if this field's last few races are anything to go by...

...and our pace analyser suggests that horses who lead here tend to get swallowed up by the chasing pack with all other running styles faring better...

Summary

Having won his last two, I imagined Lipa K would be popular and indeed he is; bet365 have him as the 5/4 fav at 4.30pm on Monday, but that doesn't excite me if I'm honest. He's 7lbs higher than his last hurdles win, his two wins were over fences and his recent hurdling form has been patchy plus he has a poor record at Class 4. He's certainly got momentum, but 5/4 represents no value to me.

With that in mind, I'm more interested in the closely-matched The Big Lense and Pozo Emery and with the latter up 3lbs and seemingly less suited by the pace profiling, The Big Lense would be my marginal preference of the two and their closeness is mirrored by bet365 offering 5/1 about each of them.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 28/05/24

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 pointsThe final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.
N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.
My fairly restrictive settings (you get to choose your own) for The Shortlist have generated the following qualifiers......and as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 4.55 Leicester
  • 5.20 Brighton
  • 5.30 Ballinrobe
  • 6.30 Ballinrobe
  • 6.55 Bangor
  • 8.30 Ballinrobe

...from which I think I'll have a look at the Secret Handsheikh vs Jacquelina battle from The Shortlist in the 2.15 Brighton, an 8-runner (fingers crossed!), Class 6, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 5f 60yds on good ground...

Sole LTO winner Jacquelina arrives here seeking a three-week hat-trick after a heavy ground win over 5f at Windsor and a good ground course and distanc esuccess here a week ago and she is, in fact, the only one of the eight to have made the frame on their last run, but at least all bar bottom-weight and 8-race maiden Haveagobeau have won at least one of their last seven outings.

Haveagobeau's cause isn't helped by not having had a run for eight months either, when all bar Boom The Groom (rested for 60 days) of his rivals have raced in the last month. Better news for Mokaatil, Alpine Girl and the fast-finishing Secret Handsheikh, though, as they all drop down a class to run here.

As an eight-race maiden, Haveagobeau is the only runner in the field yet to win at either track or trip with all seven rivals having won at least once over a similar distance. Jacquelina isn't the only course and distance winner, though, as Batchelor Boy, Secret Handsheikh and Cabeza de Llave (spanner head in Spanish?) have all also achieved the feat, whilst 116-race veteran Boom The Groom has won here over 6f...

As you'd expect from their places on The Shortlist, both Jacquelina and Secret Handsheikh fare well on Instant Expert, as does Alpine Girl off an admittedly small sample size. Mokaatil and Batchelor Boy would probably prefer the ground to be a bit quicker, Haveagobeau has won a race of any description and Boom The Groom's 'better' recent form has been on A/W tracks away from Brighton. Batchelor Boy also has a terrible win record here on this track at 1 from 14 and only 3 placed efforts in his 13 defeats...

I often use the place stats to cross runners off my list of possibles and Haveagobeau has to go now. I knew he hadn't won a race, but the above data says he hasn't been getting close either and he's clearly the weakest of the eight. Batchelor Boy's record on good ground causes concerns, but he has gone well at this class and trip, whilst his 29% place strike rate isn't horrific.

Past races here haven't shown a massive (in my opinion, anyway) draw bias, as those drawn low have a lower win percentage but a higher place ration than those drawn further out, suggesting that there's not a great deal to be had from the draw...

...whilst it's a different story from the pace angle...

...with those willing to set the pace getting the best results, especially if drawn low to mid-field...

...which based on the field's recent efforts could be more very good news for Jacquelina from her fairly central draw...

Summary

More pictures than words today, but that's sometimes more helpful. And it's probably no surprise that I'm suggesting Jacquelina as my likeliest winner here. She's in great form, scores well on The Shortlist and Instant Expert and has a good pace/draw profile for this race. Fellow featured runner Secret Handsheikh also looks to be in with a good shout of making the frame and if pushed for a third placer, I'd probably look towards Batchelor Boy on his recent form line, even if conditions aren't exactly ideal here for him.

No odds available at 3.15pm Monday, but I'd expect to see something like Jacquelina 3/1, Secret Handsheikh 4/1, Batchelor Boy 6/1, so none would be E/W viable if those odds are right, unfortunately.Please Note No column tomorrow (Tuesday for Wednesday) racing as I'm away at a family funeral. Normal Service resumes Wednesday, of course.