Tag Archive for: Trainer/Jockey Combo

Racing Insights, Saturday 11/05/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following for me to consider...


...in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Lingfield
  • 2.40 Ascot
  • 2.45 Haydock
  • 4.20 Ascot
  • 4.35 Hexham
  • 5.45 Hexham

Of all those races above, the Class 1 Swinton handicap hurdle (3.15 Haydock) is the highest-rated, but the 1.50 Lingfield, the 4.20 Ascot and the 4.35 Hexham from the 'free' list also have runners on my TJC Report and from this trio of races, I'm going to focus upon the highest-rated, which is the 1.50 Lingfield. It's a 9-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m3f and 133yds on good ground and here's the line-up...

Flash Bardot has won three of her last four and along with Aimeric (2 from 5 and 3 from 6) arrive here on the back of wins last time out, but the former is turned back out quickest just a fortnight after winning at Doncaster on her return from a six-month break. Aimeric, on the other hand, has been off the track 252 days, which is longer than any other runner in this field and he could need the run here.

In fact, aside from Flash Bardot, Peking Opera (21 days) and Base Note (43 days), the rest of the field are all returning from lay-offs after finishing outside of the frame on their last outings.

Yard & UK debutant Kolossal and Peking Opera both make handicap debuts here and the latter will also wear blinkers for the first time, as he drops in class after a couple of unsuccessful Class 1 outings. Track of Time is another handicap debutant on his first UK run, If Not Now has been gelded whilst away from the track and Flash Bardot steps up a class.

None of the field have even raced on this track before, but all bar Peking Opera, If Not Now and Track of Time have already scored over a similar trip to this one.

INSTANT EXPERT...

True Legend, Aimeric and Global Heat have the best good ground records and Aimeric is probably the pick of the bunch off an admittedly fairly sparse amount of data. Flash Bardot is proven at the trip, as is True Legend and these are probably the four standouts from this piece of analysis, although Global Heat and True Legend do run off far higher marks than their last turf successes.

DRAW...

The inference here (to me, at lest) is that you'd ideally be berthed relatively centrally to high in stalls 3 to 7, perhaps? Runners in stall 1 have seemed to struggle, winning just one of the twenty-eight races, which isn't great news for Kolossal on his first run in the UK, but followers of Aimeric & Flash Bardot amongst others will be buoyed by the draw.

PACE...

Essentially, you don't really want to be on a hold-up type here at Lingfield, but that doesn't mean they can't win, it just makes life more difficult, That said, if those drawn centrally take the race on, then it might be wise for those either side to just drop in behind and wait for the right moment to attack. The field's most recent UK outings...

...suggest that Aimeric might have to pass all his rivals if he's going to win this, although several of them have raced in the rear of late. One thing I'm fairly sure of is that Global Heat will attempt to force the pace here.

Summary

The names that keep cropping up during the analysis are Flash Bardot, Aimeric and True Legend and as of 3.20pm on Friday, they were trading at 6/1 (Coral), 9/4 (Bet365 & Coral) and 11/2 (Bet365) respectively at the head of the market and at those odds, Flash Bardot is the one that interests me most. She's had a recent run, she's in good form and is drawn well.

Aimeric looks too short at 9/4 after a long lay-off and his running style might cause him a problem, although he's certainly good enough to prove me wrong, whilst True Legend might also need the run.

Global Heat (16/1 gen) and Base Note (14/1 gen) both featured fairly prominently in the analysis above and whilst unlikely winners here  both could easily outrun those odds and make the frame. Base Note has had the benefit of a comeback run six weeks ago so might just be the better option of the two if you fancied a longer-odds punt.

Racing Insights, Saturday 27/04/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

In addition to those as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 2.05 Leicester
  • 2.37 Leicester
  • 3.20 Haydock
  • 3.27 Navan
  • 3.35 Sandown
  • 6.10 Doncaster

The three Sandown races above are decent quality, but have too many runners for my liking, but there are still a couple of Class 2 handicaps to choose from and at the risk of not Looking for Lynda in the 5.50 Ripon, I've opted for the 2.05 Leicester, a 9-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed mile (plus fifty-three yards) on soft ground that will be heavy in places...

None of the nine managed to win last time out, but Thunder Roar was a half-length runner-up at Doncaster for his fifth successive top-three finish (inc two wins). Bottom weight Big Bear Hug was third for the second race in a row and she has a win and three places from her last five. Dashing Roger is two from four, Look Back Smiling is two from three and Magic Memories was a winner three starts ago.

Big Bear Hug's excellent recent form has all been at Class 5 and she's up three classes here, which will make life much tougher, as will the two-class rise for Selwan who runs for Ian Williams for the first time today. Al Mubhir won this race last year and now steps down in class to defend his crown off a mark 7lbs higher than last year in his first outing since being gelded.

Four of this field raced against each other to varying shades of defeat a week ago and two last raced five weeks ago. Selwan had had a two-month rest, but Al Mubhir hasn't been seen f0r over twenty weeks. Miss Cantik makes a UK debut today some 154 days since finishing 11th of 18 in 1m2f Listed contest at Fontainebleau. Prior to that run she was two from two over a mile and was a Listed class runner-up over 1m1f at Longchamp.

Al Mubhir's not the only course and distance winner in the field though, as Big Bear Hug also acheived the feat almost a year ago, albeit in a Class 6 handicap off a mark some 19lbs lower than today! Raadobarg, Miss Cantik (who wears a hood for the first time today), Look Back Smiling and Magic Memories have all also scored at this trip, whilst Raadobarg and Look Back Smiling have also both won on this track over 7f...

Dashing Roger has struggled to win races over the last couple of years, even if he did win three and four starts ago. Prior to those two wins, he hadn't won any of eleven since August 2021, so whilst he's two from four, he's also two from fifteen! Thunder Roar will be suited by the soft ground and he's also a former heavy ground winner, as is Al Mubhir. Al Mubhir has struggled to win Class 2 races despite winning this one a year ago and Look Back Smiling's win record over today trip is pretty poor at just 1 win from 8 and the place stats show that he only made the frame in 2 of the 7 defeats...

...stats that put Dashing Roger out of my consideration for now. Al Mubhir won this last year, of course, but his number don't really suggest a repeat performance and the takeaway from this place data would be Thunder Roar, who finds himself drawn out in stall eight with only Raadobarg outside him, which is a bit of a worry because last year's race was won from stall 1 and our draw analyser suggests that stalls 1 to 5 are the place to be here...

...with those 91 races being dominated by horses who like to lead...

...so much so that the running style/pace of the race seems more important the draw today, as suggested by our pace/draw heat map...

We can then look at how our field have approached their last few races...

...and from this, I suspect that Al Mubhir and Dashing Roger will be the ones most likely to take the race on.

Summary

Mid to high-drawn front runners are supposedly the ones to back here and last year's winner Al Mubhir fits that bill nicely. He's also a fairly short favourite for such a competitive race, but I just don't get it/him today. I'm sure he'll give a good account of himself, but he's 7lbs higher than year and hasn't won since and with this being a stronger renewal, I just can't back him at these (Friday 5.15pm) odds...

...and I think Thunder Roar offers me more value at 9/2, whilst Look Back Smiling seems like a decent E/W prospect at 8/1.

Racing Insights, Saturday 20/04/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

30-day form...

1-year form...

course 1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Ayr
  • 2.25 Ayr
  • 3.25 Bangor
  • 4.40 Brighton
  • 4.45 Ayr
  • 7.05 Thirsk

And with all bar the 4.40 Brighton & the 4.45 Ayr from the free list also featuring in the TJC reports, it makes sense to stick with one of the other free races and of those four, two have too many runners for my liking, so I'll go with the highest-rated of the other two, the 1.50 Ayr where bottom-weight Donny Boy from above will contest a 13-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed three mils on soft ground...

The bookies are paying four places or more here, so we might be able to spot a nice E/W option from a competitive-looking field including Marble Sands (2 wins from 4) and Maclaine as LTO winners, whilst Montgomery has won each of his last three. Young Buster was third after winning four out of five and Special Rate was also third after winning seven of his previous eight. Bottom weight Donny Boy is the only one without a win in six, having now been beaten in all ten starts since opening his career with a pair of wins.

None of these runners raced at Class 2 last time out with most stepping up from Class 3 to run here, but LTO winners Marble Sands and Maclaine are up two classes, whilst top weight Sharjah takes a step down after being well beaten at the Cheltenham Festival just over five weeks ago.

Most of the field raced around the same time with all bar Inch House and Young Buster (off for 70 & 84 days each) having raced in the past four to seven weeks. Deeper Blue and Donny Boy will both wear blinkers for the first time here, whilst it's a tongue-tie debut for Inch House and Ballycoose as they seek to return to winning ways.

Only Marble Sands, Ballycoose and Young Buster have visited Ayr before with just the latter failing to win here, but he is one of half a dozen (inc Inch House, Mofasa, Special Rate, Abuffalosoldier & Montgomery) who have already scored over a similar trip to this one.

I've set the Instant Expert parameters to show Class 3 form...

...as only Inch House (1 win and 1 place from 2) has tackled a Class 2 chase in the last five years. Sharjah is the sole previous Class 1 runner, having won a Grade 3 chase at Tipperary before failing to make the frame in four Grade 1 contests. From the above, you can see that Donny Boy has even struggled to win at Class 3, as has Deeper Blue. but the likes of Sharjah, Marble Sands, Inch House, Young Buster, Special Rate and Montgomery might well be the 'half' of the field to focus on, although Young Buster is 8lbs higher than his last win and a pound higher than his last run, where he was only third of seven in a Class 3 contest. Add in his twelve-week layoff and this might be a bit tough for him here, especially if he starts to blow a bit from attempting to set the pace, as his recent efforts suggest he might...

Sadly, I can't tell you whether those tactics might be good or bad, as there's very little data in the pace profiler for today's expected race conditions...

...so I'm going to rely on the quantifiable (form & Instant Expert) and the unquantifiable ie gut feeling!

Summary

The ones I took from Instant Expert were Sharjah, Marble Sands, Inch House, Young Buster, Special Rate and Montgomery from which Marble Sands, Young Buster, Special Rate and Montgomery appear to be in the best form, so I'm going to take those four forward as I seek an E/W bet or two (three/four?). So let's look at the 7pm market...

...and I'm definitely interested in Montgomery and Marble Sands, with Montgomery probably being my winner today. Young Buster and Special Rate are more speculative, of course, but I think both are better than the odds might suggest and both are more than capable of making the frame here. Class dropping Sharjah might well get involved too.

Racing Insights, Saturday 06/04/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and sadly they have only generated one runner for me to check out under 1-year form...

...but thankfully as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.30 Kempton
  • 2.25 Kelso
  • 2.40 Kempton
  • 4.45 Kelso
  • 6.15 Chelmsford

...and although it has more runners than I'm normally comfortable with, the best of those four races above looks like the 2.40 Kempton, a 14-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m3f on standard to slow polytrack...

Intinso and Valsad both won last time out and Cannon Rock comes here on a hat-trick, whilst Old Peculier was a runner-up on his UK debut follwing three straight wins at Dundalk and Old Harrovian has won two of his last three, having been denied a hat-trick when switched to turf for the Group 3 Al Rayyan Stakes at Newbury last May.

Which, of course, means that he now makes a comeback after 322 days off the track, so he might be a little rusty here, as might Captain Wierzba after his own 337-day break, during which he was gelded. Chillingham, Laafi, Londoner and Killybegs Warrior are also without a run in 2024, having been rested for 135, 147, 169 and 175 days respectively.

Most of these did race at Class 2 last time out, but Valsad and the fast-finisher Youthful King step up from Class 3 and Cannon Rock is up two classes here, but a stated above, Old Harrovian last ran at Group 3 and now wears a tongue-tie for the first time as he drops to down in class to become one of three handicap debutants (Captain Wierzba and Cannon Rock are the others), whilst Duc de Kent's second UK appearance will be his second handicap effort after a winter in Bahrain where he failed to make the frame in four attempts.

Londoner makes a yard debut for Jim Goldie and has been gelded since leaving Aidan O'Brien, for whom he was a runner-up on his last outing. Cemhaan is the only previous course winner (over 1m4f) of the four (Killybegs Warrior, Youthful King & Dream Harder being the others), but three of the field (Youthful King, Dream Harder & Old Peculier) have won over a similar trip.

The field's 2-year form under today's conditions looks like this...

...which is a little bit sketchy to say the least, although Cemhaan and Intinso tick some boxes. I do suspect that in a 14-runner field where the bookies will pay 4 or even 5 places, that we might be better off seeing if we can find one to make the frame before we consider a winner, so here are the place stats from those races above...

...and whilst the field is generally quite inexperienced under these conditions, there are still positives to take from the data, but I think I'd want to eliminate Killybegs Warrior, Duc de Kent, Londoner, Captain Wierzba, Dream Harder and Laafi at this point, which should make the picture a little clearer for me and leaving me with runners in stalls 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10 and 13 over a course and distance that despite not having a huge draw bias...

...has seemed to favour those drawn in stalls 1 to 8 in terms of the PRB3 scores, which mightn't be great news for Valsad, Youthful King and Old Peculier from the eight runners I'm still looking at, although I suspect that in a big field like this race positioning and tactics aka 'pace' will have a huge bearing on the result. If we therefore look back at this 100+ races above that I used for the draw analysis, there's a clear definition of what works best here...

...and if we then look at this field's last few runs...

...the ones that interest me from a pace profile would be the first six on that list plus Chillingham and Old Harrovian, as I'm looking for a 4-race pace average of 3.00 or higher or three scores of 3+ from four runs.

Summary

I used Instant Expert to whittle the field from fourteen to eight runners, who in draw order were Intinso, Cannon Rock, Old Harrovian, Cemhaan, Chillingham, Valsad, Youthful King and Old Peculier from which Valsad, Youthful King and Old Peculier seemed disadvantaged by the draw, whilst the pace make-up of the race doesn't seem to suit Cannon Rock, Youthful King and Old Peculier.

If I remove those that seem unsuited by pace and/or draw, I'm left with four runners who the stats suggest have a good chance of making the frame here : Intinso, Old Harrovian, Cemhaan and Chillingham and to be perfectly honest, I'd be happy to back all of them to at least get placed. I think Intinso and Old Harrovian are much better than the other two and they're actually my 1-2 here.

Sadly, the 5.30pm market agrees with on those two, albeit they have them the other way around...

...so we've not managed to unearth something nobody else has spotted, I'm afraid, but Chillingham and Cemhaan are both interesting at 8's and 16's respectively, particularly the latter at that price, especially if you can get five places from your bookie.

Racing Insights, Saturday 23/03/24

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following pair of runners for me to check out...

...30-day form...

...and 1-year form...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday were due to cover...

  • 1.50 Doncaster
  • 2.30 Bangor
  • 3.50 Newbury
  • 5.20 Doncaster
  • 5.30 Newcastle
  • 7.45 Wolverhampton

...but I think I'm going to bypass all of them and look at the 1.30 Bangor, an interesting-looking (on paper at least!), 8-runner (fingers crossed), Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m3½f on soft ground...

As is often the case with eight-runner fields, I find myself mentally splitting the field in half and on this occasion, I can't help but feel like I should be focusing upon (alphabetically) Cheddleton, Jungle Jack, Pickanumber and Uncle Bert at the expense of the other four runners, but what happens next might change my mind!

Of those four I seem to favour, all bar Jungle Jack (who was a runner-up by a neck) managed to win last time out and Pickanumber has won each of his last two. Elsewhere Llandinabo Lad is the only one without a win in seven, having lost fifteen on the bounce since landing a 1m7½f Listed Novice Hurdle at Haydock way back in November 2020!

Only Willaston and Banjaxed ran at this grade last time with the rest of the field all up in class here. Five are up from Class 3, but bottom weight and hat-trick seeker Pickanumber is up two levels for what will be just his second run in a handicap.

My main protagonists have all raced in the last 18-36 days, as has West To The Bridge, but Banjaxed, Llandinabo Lad and Willaston have yet to race in 2024 and now reappear after breaks of 112, 119 and 147 days respectively and all three could well be excused for needing the run.

The bottom pair in the weights, Llandinabo Lad and Pickanumber are the only ones yet to win at a similar trip to this one, although the former has won at this track, landing a 2m1f Novice Hurdle here in October 2020. Cheddleton and West To The Bridge have both won 2m½f hurdle contests here, but only top weight Jungle Jack is credited with a past course and distance success, which he achieved by winning this race last year off just 4lbs lower than today's mark.

The field's relevant form under similar conditions looks like this...

...with Jungle Jack the clear standout. The majority of the field are relatively inexperienced under these conditions, but West to the Bridge has gone well on soft ground, as has Uncle Bert, but West's record at this grade leaves something to be desired at just one win from twelve attempts and the place stats say that he only made the frame in 3 of the 11 defeats...

Similar past contests here at Bangor have certainly been kind to those runners happy to get on with it from an early point in the race...

...as those waited with have struggled to land much of a blow here from both a win and a place perspective, which based on this field's most recent efforts would give Llandinabo Lad his best chance of breaking that long losing run...

and it's also good news for Pickanumber who has pretty much made all to win his last two. Jungle Jack led for vritually all of his last race before losing in the final strides and although Cheddleton was held back last time out, he's normally right up with the pace. His last win/run was in a four-runner contest at Newcastle that had very little pace anyway.

Summary

I started by saying that I felt like I should be focusing upon (alphabetically) Cheddleton, Jungle Jack, Pickanumber and Uncle Bert at the expense of the other four runners and whilst this quartet haven't fully convinced me just yet, none of the others have made me think they might force their way in.

Of my four, all are up in class (two classes for Pickanumber), only Jungle Jack has won over course and distance and he was the pick on Instant Expert. He also scored well on the pace, so I think at that these odds available at 4.45pm Friday...

It would be Jungle Jack at 7/2 with an 11/1 E/W option on Cheddleton.

Racing Insights, Saturday 16/03/24

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...14-day form...

...30-day form...

...1-year form...

...and course 5-year form...

...which gives me quite a few races to look at, plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday are due to cover...

  • 2.25 Uttoxeter
  • 3.55 Kempton
  • 4.15 Thurles
  • 4.45 Uttoxeter
  • 5.30 Wolverhampton

We've a couple of TJC runners entered into the 2.25 Uttoxeter from our 'free' list, but 18-runner contests aren't my thing, but all isn't lost as the in-form Skeltons run Hitching Jacking in the 3.55 Kempton, an 8-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed three mile trip on good to soft ground...

My initial thoughts were that the winner would come from the trio of LTO winners, Java Point (who drops a class here), Egbert (who'll wear first-time blinkers) and Statuario (if he's race-ready after an 18-month break). The latter comes here on a hat-trick, whilst Egbert has won two of his last three.

All bar Strictlyadancer and Cap du Nord have won at least once in their last seven outings (Northern Poet is four from seven since returning from a 624-day absence), but this pair are now winless in seven and eleven races respectively, bit do both drop down two classes here, whilst the top two in the weights, Slipway & Java Point drop down one level.

Hitching Jacking and the returning Statuario are yet to win over this kind of trip, whilst bottom weight Cap du Nord is our only previous course and distance winner. Egbert has also won on this track and that was over 2m5f three starts ago, as identified by Instant Expert...

...where aside from just one losing run on the going, Egbert looks best suited. The going doesn't look like Cap du Nord's preference at 1 win from 9. That said, he has only won 1 of his last 12 and that win came just 2 days shy of two years ago, so if he doesn't win here, he'll be 0/9 on the going next time around over a 2-year period! We've four Class 3 winners, of course and Java Point has fared best at the trip.

The place stats do seem to be negative about Cap du Nord again...

, although he (like most of his rivals) does have a little bit of form at this grade. He's bottom weight here, 9lbs lower than his last and has regressed over the last couple of years. he's not getting any younger/fitter at the age of 11, so he may have to drop further in class if remaining in training, as he's certainly not for me here.

If Statuario picks up where he left off 18 months ago, then he's likely to try to control the tempo of the race from the front...

...whilst Strictlyadancer is a confirmed hold-up horse, a tactic that hasn't really panned out well in similar past contests...

Summary

I started by saying that my initial thoughts were that the winner would come from the trio of LTO winners, Java Point, Egbert and Statuario and whilst I have reservations about all three, none of their five rivals have made enough appeal for me to change my mind, although Northern Poet had gone well at the back end of last season before disappointing on his comeback run at Exeter recently.

Java Point stayed on well to win at Sandown last time out and was better than the 1.5 length margin might suggest. he is up 4lbs for that run, but does take a drop in class and in what might be a tight contest, he'd be my marginal pick ahead of his fellow 11/4 joint favourite Egbert. Egbert starred on Instant Expert, but might not be suited by the pace of the race if he's closer to back than front early on. I've little between these, but Java Point edges it.

Statuario hasn't been seen for 18 months and that's a worry, but he did each of his last two starts, the last by some twenty lengths. He should be up front controlling the tempo and if fit enough to last, he becomes very E/W backable at 10/1. Northern Poet would be the other E/W option here at 12's if he can get over that last effort at Exeter where he struggled from some way out.

Racing Insights, Saturday 02/03/2024

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users.

Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following qualifiers for me to consider...

...30-day form...

...and 1-year form...

...whilst I can also call upon our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.35 Navan
  • 1.55 Newbury
  • 3.48 Navan
  • 4.00 Kelso
  • 4.15 Doncaster

...and with a top class contest on the 'free' list, I'm going to look at the 1.55 Newbury, also known as the Greatwood Gold Cup, a 9-runner, Class 1, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m4f on heavy ground...

Not only is joint bottom-weight Highstakesplayer our only LTO winner, he has also won his last three and five of his last six, finishing as runner-up in the defeat. I should however point out that those six runs were 2 x Class 5, then 3 x Class 4 before a Class 3 last time out, so he's no shoo-in here. Elsewhere all his rivals have won at least once in their last seven outings (Bill Baxter & Gemirande twice, Jetoile Grandeur Dame & Heltenham 3 times) with Gustavian's six consecutive defeats the coldest run of form on show.

So we know that in-form Highstakesplayer is up two classes here and so is Sir Psycho, whilst out of form Gustavian steps up one class, as does Heltenham who was a runner-up just a week ago. On reflection, I suppose Jetoile's recent 4th place in a Cheltenham Class 1 is the best recent run of this field, especially as he won the Grade 2 Old Roan at Aintree on his penultimate start.

All bar Gemirande have raced in the last 5 weeks, but he hasn't been seen for over ten months now and although he was 2nd past the post (placed 3rd after the stewards got involved) in a Cheltenham Grade 2 last time out, it's not inconceivable that he might need the run here, but like all bar Sir Psycho, he has already won over this trip. Only Kandoo Kid and Heltenham have won here at Newbury before (Jetoile & Gemirande are the only others to have raced here, mind) and both have won over course and distance...

Sadly, we don't glean a great deal from the win stats on Instant Expert above, but what I did spot was that Heltenham, Gemirande, Grandeur D'ame, Sir Psycho and Kandoo kid are 7 to 11lbs higher than their last winning marks, despite not coming here in great form, so that has to be a worry for their chances. The win stats did show that plenty of these will 'get' the trip readily enough but that the field lacks experience at going, class and course.

On the other hand, the place stats suggest that a few of these should relish the conditions with Jetoile, Gemirande and Heltenham showing green in four of the five categories. If the field approaches this race as they have done in their last few outings, then those three I mentioned from Instant Expert might not see too much of each other...

...with Gemirande a proven front-runner and Heltenham tending to bide his time. Jetoile normally runs in mid-division, whilst Gemirande's biggest challenge for an early lead is likely to come from Sir Psycho or Grandeur D'ame. The stats for similar past races would tend to suggest that Heltenham will be at a disadvantage if he's held up for a third race in a row...

...and that he should revert to racing further forward as he did three and four races back, when making the frame on both occasions, winning once.

Summary

There's no standout performer here, aside from Highstakesplayer's recent set of results, but that was all at a lower level than this. I suspect confidence will be high, though and that he'll probably still manage to beat most of this field. I've not got him marked as a winner, but if the odds are reasonable enough, he'd be an E/W option, as would Heltenham who is a proven placer at the trip as long as he doesn't become detached at the rear and that's the gamble with him, I suppose. he's low in the weights and has won over course and distance and I fancy him to make a good fist of this.

My preference, however, is Jetoile, who won back to back Chepstow contests last year before landing the grade 2 Old Roan at Aintree in October. He was a decent fourth after a three month break last time out, he's 3 from 3 over 2m4f and his form on soft/heavy ground reads 12321, so let's check the market at 5.15pm Friday...

Highstakesplayer is too short to back E/W for me, but I'd be happy to take 8/1 E/W about Heltenham. As for Jetoile, I think he has what it takes to win here, but 10/1 is very good when IO was expecting around 7's, so whilst I'm backing him, I might well hedge my bets.

Racing Insights, Saturday 24/02/24

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

30-day form...

1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

In addition to those as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.23 Chepstow
  • 2.03 Fairyhouse
  • 2.40 Fairyhouse
  • 3.20 Southwell
  • 3.50 Fairyhouse

We have TJC runners taking each other on in a couple of Kempton races, but it's not everyday that the list of free races has a Group race, so it'd almost be rude to not cover the 3.20 Southwell, the 6-runner, Group 3, Winter Derby Stakes over a left-handed 1m3f on standard tapeta...

The Winter Derby has been run over 1m2f on Polytrack at Lingfield for as long as I care to remember, but we've a new home, surface and trip this year, featuring half a dozen runners with just two previous visits to Southwell between them!

Tyrrhenian Sea was a winner last time out, as was Lord North, who not only won last year's Winter Derby but followed it up with a Group 1 turf success at Meydan, meaning he comes here on a hat-trick. All six have won at least one of their last six with LTO runner-up Military Order winning three times.

He also gets a 1lb weight pull from his five rivals, but is up in class here, as is Claymore. Eydon makes a yard debut for Andrew Balding here, some 665 days after a decent fourth of fifteen in 2022's 2000 Guineas and last year's Winter Derby winner Lord North also returns from a lengthy break of eleven months.

As I said earlier, this field has just two previous Southwell runs, as Military Order finished second (headed in the final strides) and last of six over course and distance in the trial for this race a month ago...

This lack of course/distance form is, as you'd expect, highlighted in Instant Expert...

...which suggests the action will be in the bottom half of the card/alphabet, as indeed do the corresponding place stats...

Forest of Dean is a definite no from me with those figures, I'm reluctant to back Eydon after a 665-day break, even if he was excellent in the 2000 Guineas back in 2022 and Claymore has the best part of five lengths to make up on Military Order, so I agree with Instant Expert here about which half of the field I want. Of those three runners, the draw and PRB3 stats suggest that Lord North and Tyrrhenian Sea would be better suited...

...although I'm always a little wary of relying on draw data over trips beyond 10f and/or in races of just six runners as the width between stall 1 and stall 6 shouldn't be the reason for losing and if truth be told, stall 1 has fared well enough in those races above...

...so after the draw data, I'm keeping three in play. As for the pace tactics of those 30-odd races above, it has paid to neither go off too quickly nor to sit out back, as it is the prominent/mid-division runners who have prospered the most from both a win and place perspective...

,,,and if we then check the field's last few races...

...it would be Eydon, Lord North and Military Order ticking those boxes.

Summary

I decided quite early in the piece that (alphabetically) Lord North, Military Order and Tyrrhenian Sea would be the half of the field I wanted to be with and there's no disputing that not only is Lord North the class act here, but he also ticks all the boxes during the analysis above. So I suppose the question is whether you want to back him to win at 5.40pm's fairly slim odds of 7/4, having not raced for eleven months and with no tapeta experience.

Military Order is the one I think who will run him closest on the back of a good run here in the trial over course and distance, but his odds of 9/4 would perversely seem to offer even less value. The problem here is that Eydon & Claymore are 25/1 and 40/1 respectively, meaning the sharp end of the market is even sharper than expected. I was hoping the top two would be priced around 2/1 and 3/1 and as such, Military Order would be the value play, but at 7/4 and 9/4, I'd have to put Lord North forward as best value, although it's a low bar!

Hopefully the above makes some form of sense, but these are my 1-2 and I suspect the reverse forecast won't pay much either. Fingers crossed, Lord North might drift out to 2's.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 17/02/24

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

30-day form...

1-year form...

course 1-year form...

course 5-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 3.15 Haydock
  • 3.27 Gowran Park
  • 3.57 Newcastle
  • 6.00 Newcastle
  • 7.15 Newcastle

Both Highland Hunter & Trais Fluors from the TJC report are set to run in races from our 'free' list, but the former's race is by far the higher-rated, so I'm staying fairly close (approx 30 miles SW from home) for the 3.15 Haydock, an 11-runner, Class 1, 5yo+ handicap chase over what might be a slog of almost 3m5f (after rail movements) on heavy ground...

It's a pretty open-looking contest here with all eleven having won at least one of their last six outings with Snipe winning twice, Iwilldoit & My Silver Lining scoring three times and Famous Bridge landing four of six, but only My Silver Lining was a winner last time out. Other placers, Iron Bridge, Yeah Man and Snipe finished as runners-up on their last runs.

Most of these ran at Class 1 on their last outing, but top weight Iwilldoit, featured runner and first-time cheekpiece-wearer Highland Hunter and Full Back all step up from Class 2, whilst bottom weight Snipe is up two classes after finishing second at Doncaster three weeks ago. That three week rest is the shortest of any of the field, but the longest lay-off is with Yeah Man (who also wears cheekpieces for the first time today) and he's only been off for eight weeks, so no fitness excuses.

Only Iwilldoit and Highland Hunter have won over a similar trip to this one, but we've three former course winners in the shape of Iron Bridge (3m2f chase), Fontaine Collonges (3m1½f chase) and Famous Bridge (2 x 3m1½f chase) as shown below on Instant Expert...

...where most of the top half of the field look like they'll have suitable conditions to suit their style. In fairness, we're not really playing with a large bank of data, but going & distance form might well be key here.  We also don't have much to go on regarding pace, but Haydock has tended to suit those setting the tempo in staying chases on difficult ground...

...which could be good news for Highland Hunter, if we ignore his last outing over an unsuitably short 2m6f at Lingfield last time out...

I suspect he'll attempt to make all here with My Silver Lining leading the chasing pack.

Summary

Most of these come here in decent nick and both Iwilldoit & My Silver Lining have won three times in their last six outings, whilst Famous Bridge had landed four of six, but only My Silver Lining was a winner last time out.

Five of the top six on the card seemed to have the best figures on Instant Expert ie Iwilldoit, Chambard, Highland Hunter, Fontaine Collonges and Famous Bridge, whilst the pace profile highlighted Highland Hunter and My Silver Lining.

If we look at these names, we see two mentions for Iwilldoit, Highland Hunter and Famous Bridge and three for My Silver Lining and I think I want to focus on this quartet for a possible bet.

I said at the top of the piece that this looked an open affair and the bookies seem to share that view with the 4.40pm market looking like this...

Of those, I like My Silver Lining best. She's in tremendous form right now and should be further ahead of any potential trouble in the field when horses start to tire. I suspect she'll let Highland Hunter lead the way before picking him off later on. That said, 18/1 looks a really big price about the potential pace-maker and with all major firms paying at least four places, Highland Hunter would be my E/W pick and I expect Iwilldoit and Famous Bridge to go well too and both might well end up in E/W territory if money comes for other runners. I'll need to check the market closer to the off.

 

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 27/01/24

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

 

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.50 Cheltenham
  • 2.15 Fairyhouse
  • 4.10 Cheltenham
  • 5.15 Newcastle
  • 5.45 Newcastle
  • 6.00 Kempton

Messrs Lacey & Iles have a good record over the last year together, whilst the O'Brien/Brennan combo have a 50% strike rate at Doncaster in recent years and both have runners (Luttrell Lad & Punctuation) in the 12.55 Doncaster, a 14-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m3½f on good ground...

More runners here than I'm generally comfortable with, but I'm hoping the race will afford me some decent-priced E/W angles.

Geronimo and Rich Spirit both won LTO, whilst Wolf Prince, Luttrell Lad and Call of the Wild were all runners-up. Aside from Sans Bruit (useful French hurdler & chaser now making a handicap debut over hurdles), who has no UK form to call upon, all bar Wolf Prince have won at least one of their last seven but he's winless in twelve and despite finishing 232 in his last three, he's not for me after a 532-day absence.

Rich Spirit also makes a handicap debut here and steps up two classes which will make life tougher than he found it in his 10-length victory at Catterick a week before Christmas. Call of the Wild, In From The Cold and Alien Storm all step one class too, whilst the top two in the weights, No Ordinary Joe and Punctuation both drop in class. Not only is French raider Sans Bruit making both a UK and a handicap debut, he's had wind surgery during a 231-day absence from the track. Of the remainder, Alfie Storm has had a three-month break with everyone else seeing some action in the last ten weeks; In From The Cold ran just a fortnight ago.

The Big Bite, Call of the Wild and Geronimo are all former Doncaster winners, whilst No Ordinary Joe, Punctuation, The Big Bite, Sans Bruit, Geronimo and Rich Spirit have all managed to win over a similar trip to this one...

Instant Expert above doesn't have a great deal of relevant past data, but Geronimo seems pretty well suited by conditions ahead, whilst the biggest concern is probably Wolf Prince's 1 from 10 record at the trip. Mind you, I'm not backing him anyway! As I'm going to be looking for some E/W plays today, let's check the place stats from those races above...

...where No Ordinary Joe, Punctuation, Wolf Prince (!), Call of the Wild, Geronimo and Luttrell Lad are the ones with the mainly green records. Wolf Prince is actually nagging me now because he looks well suited for the task and was running well before his lengthy absence. Something for me to ponder, after I've considered the pace angles around a race that has tended to suit front-runners in the past...

A quick click of the pace button on the racecard then tells me that Luttrell Lad, Geronimo and guess who, Wolf Prince are the likely front-runners/pacemakers here...

Summary

The two runners I like most in this field are actually No Ordinary Joe and Punctuation, but possibly/probably not for this race!

No Ordinary Joe was a very useful hurdler last season, but flopped on his chase debut two months ago after having an eight month break. He should strip fitter for having had that run, but shouldn't be suited by the pace here. He hasn't tackled a hurdle since mid-April and might just need another run to get going and as such, a 4.10pm price of 17/2 seems fair.

Punctuation comes from the TJC Report and scored well off a small sample size on Instant Expert. Like No Ordinary Joe, he drops in class here and also seems unsuited by the pace set-up and at 16lbs higher than his last hurdles win and up in trip, he might not have enough in reserve to get home. His 9/1 price offers a little more value than No Ordinary Joe, though.

So where next? Well, we're back to the pace/Instant Expert combo...the previously-discussed No Ordinary Joe and Punctuation were highlighted by Instant Expert for place results along with the nagging itch Wolf Prince, Call of the Wild, Geronimo and Luttrell Lad, whilst Luttrell Lad, Geronimo and Wolf Prince were our pace horses and it's this trio that I'm going to look at next.

Luttrell Lad also comes from the TJC Report and as well as winning three starts ago was a one-length runner-up off today's mark last time out at the same class, trip and going as this race. A similar run puts him right on the shortlist here and could be a decent E/W prospect at 15/2. Wolf Prince is the one I wanted to ignore after such a long break, but he seems to be everywhere I turn. If he's race fit, then he should relish conditions and if allowed to control the race from the front, could easily stay in contention to the end. I suspect the market will be the key to his chances between now and race time, but his current 10/1 ticket would suggest he has chances of making the frame.

And finally, to the horse I like best for the race, Geronimo, he comes here after a great run of form, he won LTO under today's jockey and is only up 2lbs. He was the eyecatcher from instant Expert and is sure to be up with the pace. He's currently also 9/1 and that looks a really good E/W option to me.

To be honest, all five of these could well make the frame and all are at E/W backable prices. The bookies are paying four places, so you could play more than once, but good luck and have a great wekend.

 

 

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 20/01/24

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...30-day form...

...1-year form...

...course 1-year form...

...course 5-year form...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday were due to cover...

  • 12.15 Lingfield
  • 12.55 Haydock
  • 2.40 Haydock
  • 3.15 Haydock
  • 4.28 Taunton
  • 6.00 Wolverhampton

But, as you can see, the recent cold snap has played havoc with the day's racing. That said, between the 'free' list and daily report, we do have eight races to aim at, including the richest race of the day, the Winter Oaks featuring two runners from the TJC report as Queen Regent and Eleanor Cross do battle with 6 other fillies in the 3.10 Lingfield, a Class 2, 4yo+ A/W handicap for fillies/mares over a left handed 1m2f on standard polytrack...

Miss Bluebell won last time out and is two from her last five, Oh So Grand arrives here on a hat-tirck and has won four of her last six (with 2 placed finishes), whilst Storymaker has won her last four after a trio of third place finishes. Elsewhere only Eleanor Cross is winless in six, but to be fair she's only had three races to date, finishing in the frame twice.

Only hat-trick seeking Oh So Grand, Queen Regent (who wears cheekpieces for the first time today) and Behind The Scenes raced at this Class 2 level last time out, as Twirling (second handicap effort today) and Dayzee are up one class, LTO winners Miss Bluebell and Storymaker will find life tougher up two classes, whilst bottom weight Eleanor Cross is up three for her handicap debut, having failed to win at either Class 4 or 5 over this trip.

Miss Bluebell raced as recently as last Saturday, when scoring at Wolverhampton, whilst the longest break has been had by Oh So Grand and Queen Regent, who finished first and second here over course and distance 45 days ago. They were separated by a length and a quarter that day, but the runner-up is 4lbs better off here.

That win by Oh So Grand makes her the only course and distance winner, but Storymaker has won here over 7f and Miss Bluebelle has scored over this trip at Bath and Chelmsford as well as winning twice over 1m1½f at Wolverhampton, but it's Oh So Grand who steals the show on Instant Expert...

We've admittedly not got a great deal of data from a field with a combined 64 races in total and even those with red boxes have still run well in those small number of outings, making the frame regularly...

...where the more experienced Miss Bluebelle and Storymaker have proven to be A/W standard going experts. The concern with the former is the 7lb hike from her last win and the fact that is her track debut with her best form coming on the tapeta at Wolverhampton. She's drawn in stall 2 today, which has been the most successful stall in 8-runner contests over this course and distance...

...which is a positive after the 7lb rise in weights. and if she can race prominently or even set the tempo of the race, then she might have a really good chance based on this evidence below...

And fortunately for her, that's exactly what she tends to do...

Summary

Whilst Oh So Grand isn't ideally suited pace-wise based on her last two runs, the previous two were tactically ideal for this contest. If she runs that way here then, as the only Class 2 winner in the field and in great form (113211), she looks the one to beat from a low draw. She beat Queen Regent last time and although the latter is better off at the weights, her wide draw might stop her reversing the placings, but I fancy both to make the frame along with Miss Bluebell and/or Storymaker.

We've discussed Miss Bluebell already and she looks to have a decent chance of getting placed, whilst Storymaker has more experience and loves it here at Lingfield. I'll consult the market before making any selections, though.

As of 6.40pm on Friday evening, the market looked like this...

...and 9/4 probably seems about right for Oh So Grand, so I won't try to deter anyone from backing her, but I think my play here is to take the 9/1 E/W (Sky offer 4 places!) about Queen Regent who should run the fav close again, as she did in the trial for this race seven weeks ago.

Racing Insights, Saturday 06/01/24

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have actually generated no qualifiers for me to consider, so it's a good job that I've got our batch of daily free racecards to fall back on...

  • 11.55 Newcastle
  • 1.57 Cork
  • 2.25 Sandown
  • 2.32 Cork
  • 3.42 Cork
  • 7.00 Southwell

Take away the three Irish races (not my thing) and the abandonment of Sandown, I'm left with a Class 5 Mares' Bumper for Conditional/Amateur Jockeys and a Class 5 fillies' A/W handicap. The latter looks the lesser of two evils, so let's head back to Southwell, where Nolton Cross won for us today and have a look at the 7.00 race, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ fillies' A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard tapeta...

Our sole LTO winner is Storymaker, who comes here seeking a hat-trick after she beat the re-opposing Sixties Chic by 2.5 lengths with the latter finishing third. Sixties Chic is, however, effectively 3lbs better off today. Platinum Jubilee was a runner most recently, but she's a four-race maiden, whilst Smiling Sunflower is the only without a win the last six races, having been beaten eight times on the bounce.

We have a couple of class droppers here, as joint top weight Just Janet is down one level and the other joint top-weight Finery is down three classes. Abbey's Dream wears first-time blinkers, whilst Platinum Jubilee's first run with a tongue tie coincides with her second handicap run. The card also denotes Liberty Mountain, Storymaker and Sixties Chic as fast finishers.

All bar the 7yr old Finery and the 5 yr old Smiling Sunflower are aged 4 and all bar Platinum Jubilee and Sixties Chic have already won over today's trip with the joint top weights, Just Janet & Finery have scored over course and distance...

Sixties Chic and Finery catch the eye at class/going, but the latter has only won 1 of 7 at this trip with a mile seeming to be her preferred distance. Abbey's Dream is 1 from 10 on a standard surface and Smiling Sunflower looks generally weak, so they're not making much appeal, although Abbey's Dream does have a decent set of placed finishes...

From that second graphic, I'd probably now ignore the bottom three to focus on the five drawn in stalls 3 and 5 to 8, so I'm hoping that of there's a draw bias here, it suits those drawn highest!

And that does seem to be the case...

...although from a place perspective ,the PRB3 figures favour the lower drawn runners...

That said, over 7f, race tactics aka pace are often the deciding factor, but the pace stats from those races above is almost as inconclusive as the draw data...

..and I think it's going to be like Friday's race here, where class ends up being the key and the best horses just come to the fore.

If we briefly consider how pace and draw work together, we see this...

...and our field have raced like this recently...

...which we can then overlay onto the pace/draw heatmap as follows...

Summary

I suspect Finery and Abbey's Dream will set the early tempo here, but that will just give the fast finishers Liberty Mountain, Storymaker and Sixties Chic a target to aim at. The first of that trio is bang out of form, but the other two ran really well against each other a fortnight ago and I now think they'll both overhaul the leaders to finish first and second.

Sixties Icon is now 3lbs better off with Storymaker, so I think she might well reverse the placings and win here, but there won't be much in it, as testified by them being installed as joint 7/2 favourites.

Finery is currently 7/1 and could well hold/hang on for a place but the lightly raced Platinum Jubilee rates a big threat.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 30/12/23

/in /by

My last column of the year focuses on Saturday's racing, where our free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users.

Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...but they have sadly generated no qualifiers for me to consider, but I can at least call upon our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 12.15 Haydock
  • 2.25 Newbury
  • 3.10 Haydock
  • 4.45 Wolverhampton

...a list that contains a couple of Class 3 handicaps, the most valuable of which is the 2.25 Newbury, a 12-runner, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 3m2f on good to soft ground that will be softer in places...

Only Surrey Quest managed to win last time out, but Certainly Red, Bowtogreatness, Fantastikas, Atlanta Brave and Striking A Pose all had top three finishes, although it has been 259 days since Bowtogreatness was last seen with all his rivals having had at least one run in the last two months.

He does however drop down two classes to run here, as does Bangers and Cash with the other two of the top four in the weights, Certainly Red and Docpickedme dropping down one class. Conversely, Surrey Quest and bottom-weight Striking A Pose are both up a level here.

Bangers and Cash will be wearing cheekpieces for the first time today, whilst this will be Surrey Quest's first outing since having had wind surgery during a two month break following his LTO win at Huntingdon.

Notachance's Class 4, 3m½f handicap hurdle success back in March 2019 is the only previous Newbury win from this dozen runners, but Certainly Red, Docpickedme, Laskalin and Shanty Alley have all won at least once over a similar trip to this one. The field lacks success under similar conditions to those expected here, but Instant Expert does highlight a couple of runners who might be well suited...

...with Certainly Red and Bangers And Cash the immediate eyecatchers there. Causes for concern above include Shanty Alley, Yes Indeed and Striking A Pose at Class 3 and Fantastikas over this trip. The rest of the field seem pretty unexposed under these parameters, but many of them are regular placers...

Fairly strangely for a stayers' chase on soft-ish ground, past similar races here at Newbury have tended to suit front-runners those chasing the leader(s) with those racing further back having less success...

...which based on this field's most recent outings would appear to benefit Bangers And Cash, Docpickedme and Shanty Alley...

...plus to a slightly lesser extent Laskalin (although if he leads?), Surrey Quest and Notachance.

Summary

Bangers And Cash caught the eye on Instant Expert, despite never having raced here at Newbury. He also has no run at 3m2f, but has won at 3m, 3m3½f and even 3m5f, so he has stamina to boot. He will also be expected to be up with the pace and would normally be under serious consideration here as a bet, but after winning three of his last four last season, he has run poorly twice at Cheltenham this term and will need to improve massively to get involved.

I'd be backing him here if he'd had a decent run under his belt this season, but whilst I think he's much better than his current 16/1 odds, he's not my idea of a winner here. That said, he is more than capable of making the frame and with firms paying four places, he might be of interest.

Whilst we're looking at E/W possibles, Shanty Alley might be the answer at 10/1. He's a regular placer on Instant Expert and has a decent pace profile for this race. He was the runner-up in this contest last year and is 5lbs better off this time and probably needed the run last time out after nearly seven months off.

If pushed for a winner, I'd struggle here; there are no standouts for me, but I do like the look of the two at the top of the weights, who both drop in class. Both Certainly Red and Bowtogreatness have chances here and with the former currently trading at 11/1, that could also be an E/W route.

The one I have largely ignored is the favourite Atlanta Brave who is still relatively unexposed and gets weight from most of his rivals, but 4/1 looks mightily short to me about a horse whose best form is at Class 4, has never gone beyond 3m and hasn't won beyond 2m6f, but who knows?

Happy New Year, everyone; I'll see you on the other side of Hogmanay in '24.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 23/12/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following couple of runners for me to look at...

1-year form...

...plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 12.15 Lingfield
  • 1.05 Newcastle
  • 2.25 Ascot
  • 2.40 Haydock

...and with one of the six races above being a stayers' contest on tricky ground, let's head to the 1.30 Haydock, where the in-form Anthony Honeyball sends the 8 yr old Credo to contest a 9-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 3m1½f on heavy ground...

Enqarde and Famous Bridge both won last time out, whilst Burrows Diamond and Credo both had runner-up finishes and Conkwell legend was third. Bill Baxter and Eleanor Bob have both won two of the last four, Famous Bridge is three from four and Credo is two from five and all have won at least one of their last seven.

Famous Bridge actually beat Credo by a length last time out over this course and distance with Eleanor Bob not too far back in fourth...

...and Credo is 3lbs better off with the winner here, so they're very closely matched, whilst Eleanor Bob is even better off today. That win by Famous Bridge here four weeks ago makes him one of two course and distance winners in this field, as Enqarde won this race last year and now runs off a mark 1lb lower than a year ago.

All bar Dr Kananga have raced in the last 14-45 days, but the 9 yr old has been off the track for some 40 weeks and has had a wind op during that time. He is, however, the only other horse in the race with a previous win over this type of trip.

Last year's and LTO winner Enqarde steps up a class here, but Bill Baxter, Burrows Diamond and Conkwell Legend all drop down from Class 1 action. Instant Expert says that the first named of that trio is this race's only previous heavy ground chase winner...

...but that several of them will enjoy the trip. To be fair to the runners here, they've not exactly failed on heavy ground, they've hardly experienced it and most of them have gone well on soft ground...

...whilst the place stats look like this...

...from which I think I'd be focusing upon Famous Bridge and Credo most. The pace data from the field's last few races say that Credo is likely to be held up for a run, whilst Famous Bridge tends to run in mid-division. All indications, however, point to the likes of Eleanor Bob and Dr Kananga setting the early tempo...

Our pace analyser suggests this early pace is the best approach to winning races here, but that a mid-divisional position is great for making the frame...

Summary

Famous Bridge, Credo and Eleanor Bob were first, second and fourth home here at class, course and distance last time out and I think that's where I want to be looking. Despite the pace stats suggesting that Credo might struggle, her yard is in cracking form and with a 3lb pull on the LTO winner, I fancy her to overturn those placings. Eleanor Bob is also better off at the weights here and was running for the first time in 21 months last time out. She gets weight all round here and should come on for having had the run and I suspect/hope we'll have a cracking three-way battle after three energy-sapping miles.

They are, understandably, well-fancied by the 4.30pm market...

...and with neither of them really long enough for an E/W bet, my play here is Credo at 11/2.

That's me done now until after Christmas, so wherever you are and however you spend Christmas, I sincerely hope it's an enjoyable one.
All the best,
Chris

Racing Insights, Saturday 16/12/2023

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

30-day form...

1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

In addition to those as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 11.55 Hereford
  • 12.40 Cheltenham
  • 1.05 Fairyhouse
  • 2.25 Cheltenham
  • 3.22 Hereford
  • 3.35 Cheltenham

All told, between the TJC qualifiers and the 'free' races, I've plenty to go at , but one race features on both lists, so we'll have a look at the 3.35 Cheltenham where in-form friend of Geegeez Anthony Honeyball sends the 7yr old Good Look Charm to tackle a 10-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ Mares' handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m4½f on soft ground...

The sharper eyed amongst you will also have spotted that Anthony has another runner in this race in the shape of Geegeez syndicate-owned Coquelicot, who will be partnered by Rex Dingle. This horse/jockey combination have six wins and four further places from thirteen races together, so that's another interesting angle to the race, I think.

Martha Divine is the only one of the ten without a win in five races, in fact she has been beaten in her last seven and now comes back off a break of nine months to make a yard debut for Harry Fry. She has had wind surgery during her lay-off and that should help her run better, she also sports a hood for the first time and Harry Fry's a great trainer, but I suspect her best is yet to come in later races!

All her nine rivals have had the benefit of a run in the last three to nine weeks with Windtothelightning, Coquelicot, Bonttay and Good Look Charm all winning last time out. Windtothelightning has won four of her last five, whilst Bonttay is three from four and has won six times from her nine career starts, finishing as runner-up in the other three!

She is, however, up two classes here (but did win a Class 2 two starts ago) and Windtothelightning also steps up a level. Conversely, top-weight Theatre Glory, LTO Listed class winner Coquelicot and handicap debutant Nurse Susan all drop down from Class 1 action.

Theatre Glory has already won over course and distance here at HQ, landing a Listed Novice Hurdle in April of last year and Bonttay landed a pair (Class 2 & Listed) of back to back 2m½f bumpers here in October/November 2021. Aside from Theatre Glory, though, only Windtothelightning, Coquelicot and Ilovethe nightlife have won over a similar trip to this one, even if Coquelicot did win over 3,1f last time out.

Results under similar conditions can, of course, be found by clicking the Instant Expert tab on the racecard...

...where in-form Bonttay looks the one to best, notwithstanding her lack of experience beyond 2m1f and her stepping bck up in class. Featured runner Good Look Charm will enjoy the soft ground, whilst Windtothelightning's record at the trip is excellent, although she does now run off 12lbs higher than when winning at Wetherby six weeks ago defying a 198-day lay-off. That weight hike aside, there are no real causes for concern raised by Instant Expert, so I'm going to look at the place data to try and 'eliminate some from my enquiries'...

I'm going to be rather picky here and just highlight the ones who have green or no runs at going/class/course/distance, leaving me with Windtothelightning, Coquelicot, Bonttay and Good Look Charm as my takeaways from Instant Expert, as we now move on to assess race tactics aka pace.

Geegeez followers will know from past reports that Coquelicot likes to do her racing from the front of the pack, but recent efforts by her rivals suggest that she might have some company up top from the likes of Stainsby Girl, Good Look Charm and Theatre Glory...

...with Zestful, Nurse Susan and Bonttay towards the rear, although the latter did win at Exeter four starts ago from a prominent position. That said, Cheltenham is a true test of a horse and the cream invariably rises to the top regardless of pace and whilst front-runners have had the edge on making the frame here in similar past races, the races have been won pretty evenly across all running styles...

...which pretty much takes me back to my Instant Expert quartet.

Summary

I've pretty quickly narrowed the field down to Windtothelightning, Coquelicot, Bonttay and Good Look Charm, courtesy of Instant Expert and recent form and of these four, I think Bonttay is the one to beat, but the other three are more than capable on their day and all look to have a great chance of making the frame.

Bonttay is the 3/1 favourite as of 4.10pm with Coquelicot and Windtothelightning both priced at 7/1 with Good Look Charm out at 10's. Skybet are paying four places here, so all of them would be worth considering.