Tag Archive for: Trainer/Jockey Combo

Racing Insights, Saturday 22/07/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.30 Curragh
  • 2.00 Curragh
  • 3.20 Ripon
  • 3.35 Newbury
  • 4.35 Cartmel
  • 7.15 Doncaster

If I'm totally honest, I don't really fancy of Saturday's racing at all, including the ten races above, but the show must go on! To that end, I'm going to head to Town Moor and have a quick look at a very open looking 7.45 Doncaster, a 12-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to soft ground. The track is soft in places and more rain is expected, but here's the line-up...

Game Set won last time out and the sole three year old in the field has on both his previous runs to date and gets a useful 7lbs weight allowance on his handicap debut, but he is up two classes here.

Sir Thomas Gresham, Hickory, Brazen Bolt, Mudamer and Maywake were all runners-up LTO and most of the field have been in decent form of late.

The top two on the card, Gweedore and Atrium both take a drop in class, but Brazen Bolt, Danzan, Mudamer, Maywake and Tribal Wisdom are all up one grade.

Only Sir Thomas Gresham, Mudamer and bottom weight Tribal Wisdom have yet to win over this trip and Game Set is a course and distance winner. Atrium and Woven have also won here at Doncaster before, over a mile and 6f respectively.

Sir Thomas Gresham returns from a nine week break, but the remainder have all raced in the past month with top weight Gweedore having a run last Friday in a good race at York and Instant Expert suggests that he'll relish the underfoot conditions expected here...

The field is short on Class 3 wins with Gweedore, Woven and Danzan sharing a rather mediocre 4 from 33 record. Danzan does look rather out of his depth here across the board and Maywake has a poor record at the trip.

To be fair, there isn't much green on that chart generally, so let's check the place stats...

...which look a lot better and also show why I think this is a fairly open-looking contest. Unsurprisingly, when broken down into sectors/thirds, there appears to be little if any draw bias...

...but the PRB3 stats do imply that those drawn lowest have fared better than average...

Pace, however, is another matter, as there's a definite pattern formed...

...whereby those setting the early pace have invariably been swallowed up by the pack. Leaders make the frame most often, but have a terrible record of turning places in to wins at just 12.5%, whilst those not setting the pace have 36 wins from just 97 placed finishes at a 37.1% conversion rate. All of which doesn't look like good news for Gweedore, Danzan and Maywake...

Summary (as of 4pm)

Not an easy race to call and the soft option would be for me to say "back Game Set" and the reasoning would be obvious, he's in form, gets a weight allowance, will race prominently and has won over course and distance. If I can get 7/2 or bigger, then I could well be tempted into a bet. Sadly I reckon he'll be quite a bit shorter and I'd be wary at sub-3/1 odds about a horse we know little about.

Sir Thomas Gresham interests me, though. He's lightly raced for an 8 yr old, has a low draw, will race prominently and is invariably on the premises. The oddschecker tissue suggests 8/1 and I'd certainly have some of that as an E/W bet if available and you could make a case for Hickory, who too is lightly raced, but has won three of six. He wasn't beaten by far last time out and should be involved again here. His OC tissue price is only 6/1, though, so no E/W bet there.

It's a very open race, but these would be the three I'd want to focus on.

4.45pm odds update : My three are priced at 5/2, 9/2 and 7/2 on bet365's opening show, so the oddschecker forecast wasn't great and I'm not going to get involved at those odds. Should any drift, then I could well have a bet later.

Racing Insights, Saturday 08/07/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.30 Haydock
  • 3.15 Haydock
  • 3.50 Haydock
  • 4.15 Sandown
  • 4.37 Beverley
  • 5.17 Leicester

There are better races out there, but I do like to tie the daily feature in with the list of free races, so let's have a look at the 4yr old filly Oriole in the 4.37 Beverley, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

Bringbackmemories and Freak Out both won last time out, whilst Richard P Smith and Havana Party both won their penultimate starts, but Crown Princess has failed to win any of her last ten. Top weight and featured horse, Oriole takes a drop in class here, as do Poet's Dawn and our LTO winners Bringbackmemories and Freak Out.

Solar Joe and Crown Princess are the only runners yet to win over a similar trip to this one, but the latter has at least won on this track albeit at 1m½f just over two years ago. The experienced Poet's Dawn has won four times over that 1m½f trip here at Beverley, as well as a win over 7½f, whilst Freak Out's LTO win was over this course and distance just 11 days ago.

He'll be the one with the least rest between runs, but all of these have raced in the last six weeks or so, meaning that none of them should be too rusty. Quite a few of this field have reasonable records under certain aspects of the forecasted conditions, but none have excelled and some have struggled, according to Instant Expert...

There's more negatives in the above than there are positives, but that's to be expected down at Class 5, but the main concerns surround Bringbackmemories (trip), Crown Princess (going/track), Freak Out (going), Poet's Dawn (going/trip) and Havana Party (class). Perhaps the place stats might show some of these in a better light...

That certainly puts the likes of Crown Princess in with a shout of making the frame and there's no real horror stories there, suggesting that any of these could grab a place in a contest that currently has no obvious winner. If we then turn to the draw, there's not a great deal in it, but the lower stalls have fared better than those drawn higher...

...but you'd have to expect that over 1m2f on quick ground that the draw bias could easily be undone and that race positioning aka pace will be of a greater importance, so let's see how those races above have unfolded...

Essentially the further forward a horse races, the more chance it has of winning/placing, therefore if we've any confirmed front runners around, they'd be the ones to focus on, but sadly that doesn't appear to be the case based on recent events...

There's not many of these wanting to take it on, so there's the chance of a falsely run race, but the top three on that list do at least have the ability to get on with things.

Summary

It's not a good standard of race, but it's certainly competitive. No odds available for this at 3.45pm on Friday, so I'll come back to this later on, but my thoughts are that the likes of Bringbackmemories and Freak Out who both won LTO should be involved with Crown Princess in with a shout of making the frame.

Racing Insights, Saturday 01/07/23

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Wow! The second half of the year is already upon us and it kicks off on a Saturday, whose free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated just one qualifier, as follows...

Thankfully I do also have our selection of daily 'free' races at my disposal...

  • 12.40 Newmarket
  • 1.57 Chester
  • 2.05 Newcastle
  • 2.50 Curragh
  • 3.50 Newcastle
  • 5.30 Lingfield

The 'free' list is headed by a Listed contest from HQ, but unexposed 2yr old fillies aren't really my thing and the Northumberland Plate has far too many (19) runners for my liking, but not long after the Plate comes a useful looking contest on the 'free' list at the same venue, so let's look at the 3.50 Newcastle today. It's an 8-runner (fingers crossed), Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard to slow tapeta...

Bottom weight Shimmering Sands was the only one of these to win last time out, but all his rivals have won at least one of their last seven outings. Qaasid is in good consistent form, finishing in the first three home in 8 of his last 9 nine starts (inc 2 wins) and he's the only previous course and distance winner in the field and also the only one to have raced at Class 3 last time out.

Elsewhere, Mr Curiosity, Thundering, Noble & Persist all drop in from Class 2, whilst the bottom three on the card, Cockalorum, Innse Gall and Shimmering Sands are all up in class. Aside from C&D winner, Qaasid, only Thundering has won here before, landing a 1m4½f handicap a little over a year ago, but he's one of two along with Mr Curiosity yet to win at today's trip.

The afore-mentioned Mr Curiosity might well need the run after 238 days off the track and at 273 days, you could say the same about Persist, whilst both of their rivals have raced in the past 5 to 7 weeks, bar Cockalorum who was in action at Pontefract last Sunday and will be running for the fourth time since the end of May!

Cockalorum has, in fact, competed 48 times already, whilst this will be just a fifth outing for Nobel and only his second in handicap company, but he did win his sole A/W outing. Instant Expert adds to the above data by informing us that a couple of these are running off marks considerably higher than their last win...

I've a feeling that the place stats might help us a little bit more in the way of data...

...but I'm not sure they clarify the picture for me! Good to see so much green, of course and this remains the course if we look at just A/W form...

...with the sole exception of Shimmering Sands, who tackles the A/W for the first time after ten runs on Turf. He's 3 from 3 over 1m2f including that win LTO, but he's up in class and weight and that allied to no A/W experience might just be too many unknowns here. He's drawn pretty centrally, though, in stall 4 of 8 and is likely to have to pass quite a few runners later on if he's wanting to win again, as the field's recent runs suggest he's probably going to be held up in the rear with the returning Persist...

A quick look at past similar races here says that Shimmering Sand's lower half draw is ideal here, but that his hold-up tactics haven't been the best approach here, as those tracking the leader(s) have fared best of all...

...which is probably better for the likes of Qaasid, just inside him in stall 3, whilst our pace/draw heat map looks like this with our runners superimposed on it...

Nobel is likely to set the pace, but Qaasid seems to have the ideal draw/pace profile here. Thundering will go off quickly, but he's in terrible form, whilst the draw might account for Cockalorum.

Summary

The pace/draw heat map says we should focus on Persist, Thundering, Qaasid and Noble. Noble's a little high in the draw and will be the target they aim for, he's also not in the best of form and has only one prior A/W outing, way back in December 2021. Qaasid, however, is in good nick, has the ideal pace/draw balance and is 2 from 3 on standard to slow and he's the one I'd want to be with here. he's a 5/1 shot in my book, so Bet365's price of 11/2 (at 4.40pm) is acceptable to me.

Of the others, Persist should go well and he'd be a real contender for me off his low draw if he'd had a run at some point in the last nine months and odds of 3/1 aren't appealing. The one at a longer price that might go well for E/W purposes could be Innse Galle near the foot of the weights. He has made the frame in 6 of 7 at this trip, placed twice in four Newcastle outings including two from three over course and distance (a 1-length defeat as runner-up in March) and although this is tougher than his usual races, he's not a bad E/W shout at 10/1.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 24/06/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated qualifiers as follows...

30-day form

1-year form

5-year course form

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.42 Perth
  • 2.17 Perth
  • 3.17 Newmarket
  • 3.34 Ayr
  • 4.20 Ascot
  • 8.00 Limerick

Clearly the best of the TJC report / free races has to be the Hardwicke Stakes, so my last column of the week will focus upon the 4.20 Ascot, an 8-runner, Group 2 flat contest for horses aged 4 and over. It's worth over £140k to the winner, who'll tackle a right handed 1m4 on good to firm ground...

I suspect that Hukum will be fairly short here and that the market will also like Frankie's mount, Free Wind, but that might opn up a nice E/W option for us even if I end up with those two as my first picks from a field in which only Ardakan, Changingoftheguard and Deauville Legend failed to win last time out.

All of them raced at Class 1 last time around and Ardakan wears first-time cheekpieces on his UK debut. He has yet to win over this course or trip, but he's not alone, as West Wind Blows also fits that description. Deauville Legend, Grand Alliance and Free Wind have already won over this trip elsewhere, whilst Changingoftheguard, Hukum and Pyledriver have all won Class 1 races over course and distance with the latter's triumph in last year's King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes the pick.

That said, this race might just be a pipe-opener for Pyledrive to attempt to retain that crown, as he hasn't raced since that win 336 days ago and he might well need the run. Mind you, he was the runner-up in last year's Coronation Cup (behind Hukum) after another long absence. Deauville Legend hasn't raced since last November's Melbourne Cup, so he might be rusty too but the remainder have all raced this season.

Pyledriver is best off at the weights here, as he's rated 2lbs higher than Hukum with Free Wind next best. She's the only female in the race and her 3lbs weight allowance bring her to within 6lbs of Pyledriver. Worst off looks like Grand Alliance, rated some 18lbs worse than Pyledriver.

As you'd expect for a race of this magnitude, most of the field have already performed well in similar past contests and we can see this via Instant Expert...

Ardakan has no UK form, of course, but his overseas form doesn't suggest he'd be likely to win here and with Grand Alliance's numbers clearly the worst above, I'm ready to eliminate him from my enquiries too, leaving me with six to consider. Grand Alliance is drawn in stall 2 and our draw stats suggest that his low draw would also have counted against him here...

...with stalls 4 to 7 producing the most winners...

...although the place stats for stalls 8 & 9 will give hope to widest drawn Free Wind, who likes to race quite prominently tracking the leaders, but she's unlikely to lead here, as the likes of Changingoftheguard, Pyledriver and West Wind Blows are likely to battle it out early on if recent outings are anything to go by...

What is apparent here is that aside from mid-division runners faring really badly, horses van win from any draw and with any running style, as reflected in the pace/draw heatmap...

...which applied to our field looks like this...

It's always dangerous to rule out an A P O'Brien horse ridden by Ryan Moore, but I fear that Changingofthe guard might well do too much early if he has company/competition for the lead and on that basis, I'm ruling him out here and he did fade away last time out. I've already decided against Grand Alliance and Ardakan, of course and I think Deauville Legend might struggle too, especially based on the pace/draw stats.

Summary

I've eliminated four of the eight runners so far, leaving myself with Hukum, Pyledriver, West Wind Blows and Free Wind. West Wind Blows is arguably the weakest of the four, having not won higher than Listed company, but if one of the other trio fails to fire, you could have yourself a nice E/W bet at 20/1.

Of that trio, I don't think there's that much between them, but this is probably a warm-up event for Pyledriver and at current odds of 15/2, it'd just be a small E/W bet, leaving me to pick between the 2/1 fav Hukum and Frankie's 5/2 Free Wind. There's surely very little between them and they're both in good nick, but the way Frankie is riding right now, I'd have to just about side with Free Wind.

Racing Insights, Saturday 17/06/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated a stack of qualifiers for me to consider...

...in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.10 Chester
  • 3.05 York
  • 3.10 Hexham
  • 3.45 Hexham
  • 4.20 Hexham
  • 5.55 Leicester

Now, two of our free races from Hexham also contain runners from my TJC qualifiers, but the free list has a Class 1 race that it would be rude to ignore, so we're going back to the Knavesmire (where my 1-2-3 finished 3-1-2 for a £170 trifecta and I'd a couple of E/W successes) for a tilt at the Listed Grand Cup Stakes. Your cards have it as the 3.05 York, a 7-runner flat contest for horses aged 4 and over who will tackle the left-handed mile and three quarters on good to firm ground...

The bookies seem to think it's a two-horse race here between Israr and Quickthorn with Roberto Escobarr not quite as good as them, but much better than the rest...

...they might well be right, of course, but (a) that's not always the case and (b) we might still find something here...

ROBERTO ESCOBARR has 3 wins and 2 further places from ten starts on the Flat and landed this very race two years ago. His best result to date is a Group 3 win on his last outing, but that means he now concedes 5lbs to the boys and 10lbs to the girls here, making life tough.

ISRAR has 3 wins and 3 places from 9 and was narrowly beaten in a Newbury Group 3 last time out, when headed on the line in the Aston Park stakes four weeks ago. There was no disgrace in getting caught by a typical flying Frankie Dettori finish after a 196-day layoff and he should strip fitter here slightly down in grade.

OUTBOX is a useful Class 2 (or lower) handicapper, but a win and two places from 14 efforts at class1 speaks for itself, as does a current losing streak of eleven races stretching back a week shy of two years.

QUICKTHORN stays all day, as shown when he landed the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup here in August of last year, finishing 14 lengths clear after racing 2m½f. He hasn't quite hit those heights since, but was only three lengths down over course and distance in the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup last month, despite being hampered late on and coming off a 31-week absence. Like Israr, should come on for the run and also down further in grade.

RHYTHMIC INTENT has won just 4 of 29 so far and was only 4th of 8 at Ascot last time out. Admittedly he wasn't beaten by far, but that was a Class 3 handicap, he's winless in six and now makes a Class 1 debut. Surely he's only here to try and beat a couple for some prize money or to keep stable mate Quinault (runs in the 3.45 race) company in the van.

CHING SHIH gets a 5lb allowance as one of two 4yo fillies in the race and she won a Class 4 Novice event on her second outing way back in October 2021. Only four races since then, all at Class 1 (a Gr 3 followed by 3 x Listed) and she's never looked like winning although she did stay on well last time out when upped in trip to 1m4f, finishing 3rd of 9 and might (I did say might) actually benefit from another two furlongs here (siblings are 12 from 87 over 1m5f to 1m7f on the Flat over the last three seasons), but not one you'd expect to be winning here.

DIVINE JEWEL is like, most Frankel offspring, useful and consistent. She hasn't been out of the first three home in any of her six starts so far (232122), but that's all at Classes 4 & 5 (C5 for the sole win) and you've got to expect this to be far too tough. I'd say she's the worst of the bunch, but her 5lb weight allowance might drag her into the pack.

At this point, I'd be inclined to agree with the bookies about it being a two-horse race, but let's see if Instant Expert can give us a way in...

...where the favourites don't actually stand out too much. Israr lacks relevant experience and Quickthorn has just about done enough to avoid being in the red and it's top weight Roberto Escobarr who looks best suited if it wasn't for the weight penalty for his LTO success, whilst the place stats make all of them look better apart from poor Ching Shih...

As a statistician, I struggle with the concept of arguing against proven data, but sometimes (rarely), I have to ask myself to check twice and this is one of those occasions. Check out the draw data for races here at York over 1m4f and beyond on good to firm ground...

Surely there can't be that much of an advantage in being drawn highest in a small field over such long races? Yet even the stall-by-stall analysis says there is...

...suggesting that three of the outsiders, Ching Shih, Rhythmic Intent and Outbox might have some form of advantage here. This might sound dangerous/controversial, but I'm exercising my own judgement/interpretation here and I'm ignoring that data, because even if that trio are helped by the draw, I don't think they're good enough to make full use of it! Personally, I think race tactics (ie pace) and actually class/ability will come to the forefront here.

Regarding pace, those 38 races above don't really show a pace bias either (wow, I'm not getting much help from the data today!), aside from saying that racing just behind the leader(s) haven't fared as well as other running styles, which based on the following...

...might put Israr at a disadvantage behind Quickthorn.

Summary

Sadly, at this point I'm going to tell you what you probably already know from my opening gambit that...it's a two-horse race here between Israr and Quickthorn with Roberto Escobarr not quite as good as them, but much better than the rest...and that's about the sum of it. Of the favs, I prefer the 15/8 Quickthorn over the 7/4 Israr, but it's not a race I'd want to throw much money at.

Roberto should grab third, unless the weight gets to him and with Ching Shih carrying some 10lbs less, she might be the one who comes from the back to challenge him. That said, we're only getting paid on two places here, so maybe it's a "grab a brew and put your feet up" kind of race after all.

Have a great weekend everyone and Happy Fathers Day to all of you dads.

Racing Insights, Saturday 10/06/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

30-day form...

course 1-year form...

...and course 5-year form...

..plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.55 Punchestown
  • 3.35 Haydock
  • 4.00 Bangor
  • 5.00 Beverley
  • 6.00 Punchestown
  • 7.30 Chepstow

...and from all the above, we have one from the TJC Report running in one of our free races, so let's head to North Wales where local hero Donald McCain and his 8 yr old Heartbreak Kid are likely to be popular in the 4.00 Bangor, a 7-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase taking in 15 fences over a left-handed 2m4½f on good ground and here's how they'll line up...

Featured horse Heartbreak Kid is our only LTO winner, having broken a 7-race losing spell by winning here over course and distance three weeks ago. Norley has won two of his last three and is 3 from 6 and Midnight Jewel has won 6 of his last 12, whilst Joly Maker is 3 from 8, but Ridgeway has won just one of his last nine. Yggdrasil and Fire Away, however are winless in six and seven respectively.

Yggdrasil makes a first appearance for David Pipe just seven weeks after his final outing for Jane Williams and he wears blinkers for the first time too. That seven week break is the longest of all the runners here with the remainder having raced in the last 12 to 26 days.

Only Norley, Fire Away and Ridgeway have yet to win here over course and distance, but the first two of that trio have at least won over a similar trip in the past. Instant Expert then tells me that only Yggdrasil is winless in good ground NH contests, albeit from just two efforts and we learn that all of them have won at least one Class 4 contest (Yggdrasil and Fire Away have both won at C3 too)...

Fire Away's recent poor form is reflected by a 17lb drop in weight from his last win and although Heartbreak Kid is up 5lbs from his recent win here, he's still 4lbs lower than his Uttoxeter victory last year and both Norley and Midnight Jewel have greater gaps back to their last winning mark that the kid's 5lbs.

Joly Maker's form on good ground and at Class 4 is wretched at 2/21 and 1/15 and his sole Class 4 win came on heavy ground, although that was only three starts ago. Midnight Jewel's best form has been at Class 5, but his record under today's 3lb claimer Lilly Pinchin reads 1211F24, so they clearly get on well.

The above data is for all NH races, so let's have quick look at their chasing records...

...where there are some really good numbers, especially from Heartbreak Kid and Midnight Jewel. Only the going blots the record of Yggdrasil and Norley and these four look like the main contenders here and three of them look like they'll be the ones setting the tone of the race...

...whilst Norley will be waited with. That said, the approach to a contest like this rarely boils down to pace, as there's little bias if any at play in this type of contest...

I know it looks like mid-div runners do really badly, but the sample size is so small that had two more runners won, they'd be at 17.4% up with the others, so I'm not ruling any out here on pace, but I am purely focusing on the four better runners from Instant Expert.

Summary

I've already cast Fire Away, Ridgeway and Joly Maker aside for reasons that will have become obvious earlier on, but I need to jettison one of my shortlist to leave me with my 1-2-3 and the unlucky one here is going to be Yggdrasil. He's sure to improve under David Pipe, but that might take a little more time and his form is the worst of my final four, so my top three are (alphabetically) Heartbreak Kid, Midnight Jewel & Norley.

Heartbreak Kid won LTO after a cold spell and although up 5lbs is still 4lbs lower than a win from last year. He won by 6 lengths here over course and distance LTO and that could have been a much bigger margin, such was the way he put the race to bed late on. Trainer & Jockey have excellent individual and joint records here and that C&D win will have given the horse vital experience.

Midnight Jewel is 211F2 over fences and was contesting the lead at the last when he fell. He's solid at this level and gets on really well with today's jockey. Had a pipe-opener over hurdles recently after a break of 196 days and should be fighting fit here today.

Norley won back to back Class 4 handicaps over similar trips to this one inside ten days in April, one over hurdles and then his first chase success. That got him walloped with a 9lb rise next/last time out, when he was only 3rd of 5 here over course and distance three weeks ago, when 10.75 lengths behind Heartbreak Kid.

The Kid beat Norley last time out by almost 11 lengths and although Norley is now 6lbs better off, I don't see him overturning that result, especially as the winner seemed to have plenty in hand. Midnight Jewel is likely to make this more of a contest, though and I don't see there being too much between him and Heartbreak Kid, so they'd be my 1-2 with Norley third best of the trio.

Heartbreak Kid should be winning this, but if he's not on his game like he wasn't for the fifteen months between his last two wins, incurring some heavy losses along the way, he could get turned over here. From the limited odds available at 4.45pm on Friday, Heartbreak Kid was the 15/8 favourite with Bet365 offering 9/2 against Midnight Jewel and I don't think the horses are that far apart, so whilst the Kid should win, the value call here is Midnight Jewel.

Racing Insights, Saturday 27/05/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.55 Curragh
  • 2.10 York
  • 3.30 Haydock
  • 3.55 Cartmel
  • 4.05 Chester
  • 4.40 Chester

So, I've seven races from the TJC report and six 'free' ones and no duplicates! In whuich case, I'll bow to class and go with the highest rated race of that baker's dozen and have a look at the the 3.30 Haydock, a 14-runner, Group 2 flat contest for horses aged 3 or over. The trip is a straight 5f on good to firm ground and here's how they line up...

Surprisingly for a Group 2 race, only one runner, Happy Romance, was a winner last time out, but Annaf is 3 from 5, Live In The Dream's last three results were 112, Mibaahy is 3 from 5, Raasel is 2 from 6, Royal Aclaim is 3 from 5, Sandbeck is 2 from 5 and 3 from 7, The Platinum Queen is 2 from 4 and 3 from 6 , whilst Dramatised is 2 from 3 and I think I already want to narrow the field down to this more manageable group of runners, as follows...

Annaf is noted as a fast finisher, Sandbeck wears cheekpieces for just the second time and The Platinum Queen runs for Roger Varian for the first time since leaving Richard Fahey. All nine runners have won over this trip at least once before with both Raasel and Sandbeck scoring over course and dsitance.

Five of the nine have already had a run in the last five weeks, but it's a seasonal re-appearance for The Platinum Queen, Dramatised, Mitbaahy and Royal Aclaim, who have been off the track for 204, 204, 237 and 258 days respectively. Raasel is the oldest of this group at 6yrs of age, whilst The Platinum Queen and Dramatised are both 3 yr olds.

Instant Expert tells me that six of the nine have won on good to firm ground already and that five are previous Class 1 winners on turf. We also see that aside from the course and distance winners, two others have been to Haydock before and that Annaf's previous success over 5f wasn't on grass...

With one win and six unplaced efforts from seven runs on good to firm, I fear this might be too quick for Happy Romance, whose best form is on good/good to soft ground. Mitbaahy has at least made the frame in two of three defeats on this going. As for class, Annaf is unplaced in both C1 outings and Sandbeck is unplaced in all three and this is shown in the place stats as follows...

And at this point, I'm now discarding Annaf, Happy Romance and Sandbeck to leave me with the following in draw order...

I actually think that any of these are more than capable of making the frame here and with most bookies paying four places (Sky pay 5, of course!), I'm hoping to find an E/W bet or two from this group, odds permitting. I've re-arranged the half dozen into draw order, in case past similar contests here at Haydock have favoured a particular part of the draw, so let's check. I opened up the field size and the going parameters to give me more data to work with, but in these, as expected, there's no huge draw bias in a straight 5f here...

...which means that pace may well hold the key as it often does in these sprints. This is how this group have raced in their last four outings...

...and if repeated here, I'd expect The Platinum Queen and Live In The Dream to be contesting things from the start with the likes of Mitbaahy being waited with. If we then look at those races I used for the draw stats, you'll see that Mitbaahy's approach might not be the best here, as hold-up horses fare considerably worse than the other three racing styles...

And at this point, I'd probably omit Mitbaahy from my thoughts.

Summary

I've fairly crudely reduced a 14-runner field quickly down to five that I think could make the frame. I'm not really comfortable with large fields and this is my usual MO in these cases. I'm well aware that I may well have overlooked a winner or placer in the process, but you choose your method in this game!

It's only at this point that I look at the market and this is what I see...

The Platinum Queen 4/1
Dramatised
Royal Aclaim 13/2
Live In the Dream 13/2
Raasel 14/1

Sadly, I've got four of the top five in the market (I've only missed Twilight Calls), but Raasel is interesting at 14's. He won a Listed race here over course and distance this time last year and followed it up with a group 3 success at Sandown five weeks later before coming within a neck of landing the Gr2 King George Qatar Stakes at Goodwood in late July. He wasn't in the frame in two subsequent Gr1 contests as he closed out his season.

He didn't run on turf again until earlier this month when a decent fourth of fourteen in the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket and there's every chance he could match or better that result here, so I'm on at 14/1 E/W with Bet365.

As for the winner, I think it might come down to the two longer-priced runners Royal Aclaim and Live In the Dream. The latter will be tough to catch if away sharply and almost stole the palace House from the front on ground that might have been a little soft for him, whilst Royal Aclaim caught the eye as a 3yr old, especially when winning a Listed race at York and if she's race ready, then she's unexposed and might surprise a few of these.

Racing Insights, Saturday 13/05/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated just two runners under each of the 1-year overall and 1-year course form filters...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.30 Ascot
  • 2.40 Ascot
  • 3.05 Nottingham
  • 3.30 Navan
  • 4.15 Nottingham
  • 5.55 Warwick

...and of those ten (free list plus report qualifiers), there's a Class 2 race at Ascot in both sectors. The 23-runner Victoria Cup (2.40 Ascot) is too far out of my comfort zone, so I'm going to assess the chances of Belhaven in the 2.05 Ascot, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a straight mile on soft ground, that is already heavy in places...

Featured horse Belhaven was a winner last time out, as were Timeless Melody and Mountain Song, who finally got off the mark after three runner-up finishes. Only Perfect Thunder, Farhh To Shy and Beccara Rose are without a win in their recent form line.

Belhaven does however step up a class after her recent win, as do Sly Madam and Farhh To Shy. One Morning is up two classes, along with Mountain Song and Beccara Rose, whilst Timeless Melody's recent win was at Class 5! On the other hand, both Don't Tell Claire and Mottisfont are both down from recent Class 1 runs after racing in Listed / Group 3 company respectively.

Don't Tell Claire now wears cheekpieces for just the second time, Perfect Thunder makes a yard debut for Patrick Owens, whilst it's handicap debut day for One Morning, Timeless Melody, Mottisfont and Beccara Rose (who runs from 2lbs out of the handicap). It's also only the second handicap outing for top weight Julia Augusta as well as Mountain Song.

We have two 3 yr olds in the field, Mountain Song and Beccara Rose and they'll benefit from a very healthy 13lb weight (for age) allowance in this open handicap and the former has already scored over today's trip, as have Julia Augusta, Don't Tell Claire, featured runner Belhaven and Sly Madam. Don't Tell Claire is our only previous Ascot winner, courtesy of a class, course and distance victory twenty months ago.

Most of the field have an outing this season already, but Perfect Thunder, One Morning and Julia Augusta might well need this run, as they come off breaks of 202, 234 and 302 days respectively.

A look at Instant Expert then adds to the stats above by highlighting that feature horse Belhaven is one of just three to have won on soft or heavy ground and that she and the afore-mentioned Don't Tell Claire are our only Class 2 winners on display...

...whilst many of their rivals lack previous experience under these prevailing conditions, but a quick look at the place stats does at least add a bit more colour...

...with Don't Tell Claire Belhaven and Perfect Thunder probably of most interest.

Over a straight mile, you'd be forgiven for thinking that the draw wouldn't have much effect and although the following is based on a fairly small sample size...

...the lower half of the draw has really struggled in similar past contests, as shown here in the stall-by-stall data...

...and this gives some advantage to those drawn 7 or higher here. This draw bias is probably stronger than any perceived pace bias, but the small number of leaders have won more than their fair share of races...

The effect of the draw is probably better highlighted by the pace/draw heat map...

...so as long as One Morning, Perfect Thunder, Mottisfont, Belhaven and Sly Madam aren't hold-up horses, their chances of success should be enhanced by the draw. So, let's look at how they've approached their most recent races...

Belhaven may have a average pace score of 2.25, but she did lead last time out and a similar approach puts her right in the mix here. Don't tell Claire is hampered by both draw and running style and the pace here is likely to be down the centre wit the in-form Mountain Song.

Summary

We started with Belhaven and we're going to finish with her. I think she's good enough to win this race, but probably won't. She's 2 from 3 and 4 from 7, but a 7lb rise for her LTO win takes her mark to a career high 87, some 20lbs higher than her win seven races ago last May. She's also up in class here, so I think this might be just too much for her.

That said, most firms are paying four places and I think that she's good for a place. 13/2 is a bit short for me as an E/W bet, but it might work for you. As for the winner, I think I fancy Mountain Song to defy class and weight rises because she might well be afforded a soft lead and 4/1 seems a fair price.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 05/04/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.00 Wolverhampton
  • 4.15 Leopardstown
  • 4.35 Wincanton
  • 5.52 Leopardstown
  • 8.15 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted one trainer for 3-day form and one for course 5-year form as follows...

...and with Robert Walford's Amelia's Dance running in one of our 'free' races, it makes sense to look at the 4.35 Wincanton, an 8-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ Mares' Handicap Hurdle over a right-handed 1m7½f on good to soft ground...

None of these come here off the back of a win, but Lady Adare has won four of five career starts, No No Tonic has won two of her last six and Gentle Connections is four from six.

Gentle Connections, Puffin Bay and Somespring Special all step up one class, whilst Addosh is up two grades from the A/W, having failed to complete her last two over hurdles. Something Special is on handicap debut here, it's a second handicap run for Lady Adare.

Puffin Bay turns out for Harry Derham for the first time since leaving Oliver Sherwood and is also tongue-tied for the first time, whilst Lady Adare runs for the first time since a recent wind operation. All bar Amelia's Dance and Somespring Special have previously won over a similar trip and the three course winners, No No Tonic, Puffin Bay & Petticoat Lucy have all scored over course and distance.

In terms of recent activity, No No Tonic, Amelia's Dance, Somespring Special & Petticoat Lucy have all been out fairly recently (19-39 days), Addosh and Lady Adare have been off for 10/12 weeks respectively, whilst Gentle Connections hasn't raced since late October with Puffin Bay rested since July!

Instant Expert suggests that Lady Adare should enjoy the underfoot conditions, but makes us aware that this field haven't really proven themselves at Class 3...

...whilst place form looks like this...

From the place form, No No Tonic looks a decent proposition to make the frame, but at 16lbs above her last winning mark and 2lbs higher than her recent runner-up finish, she might be weighted out of a win. Gentle Connections' win and place from two Class 3 outings might be the best on offer, so let's have a quick look at how many Class 4 wins the field achieved...

...which again suggests that Lady Adare might well be the one best suited here with both Gentle Connections and Addosh faring well. I know from her run of wins that Lady Adare does like to race strongly up with the pace, but based on this field's most recent efforts, I don't think she'll be afforded an easy lead...

...with No No Tonic, Petticoat Lady, Gentle Connections and Puffin Bay all also liking to be near the head of affairs. Amelia's Dance has raced prominently in her last two and Somespring Special was up with the pace last time out, meaning we could have a bit of a tear-up here with Addosh probably the one sitting out the bunfight and that's probably not the best way to approach a short-distance contest here at Wincanton, if the following rings true...

...and I think I'm probably best sticking with the top half of the pace graphic ie  No No Tonic, Lady Adare, Petticoat Lucy and Gentle Connections.

Summary

Having split the field in half for a four-runner shortlist, let's have a quick look at the quartet...

LADY ADARE won a bumper, a maiden hurdle and two novice hurdles in her first four career starts before finishing 6th of 9, beaten by 26 lengths at Taunton on handicap debut in January. That run was off a mark of 130 and came after a break of 321 days. She's had the benefit of that run, has had a wind op and is rated 3lbs lower, so shouldn't be discounted

NO NO TONIC won here over course and distance (she's 211 over C&D) on Boxing Day and was a runner-up in back to back February outings at Chepstow, before being pulled up at Fakenham last time out. She's a pound lighter here and a return to her favoured track-trip might be all she needs.

GENTLE CONNECTIONS won a 2m5f maiden hurdle at Southwell almost a year ago and follwed that up with a hat-trick of novice hurdle wins in May/June. Two unsuccessful runs since that you could make an excuse for (1 at Gr2 and 1 over three miles!), but now rated at 117, the same as her last win, she has to enter calculations.

PETTICOAT LUCY was the three length winner of a 15-runner course and distance contest here on Boxing Day 2021 on just her second effort over hurdles, but has failed to win since, finishing P84P43, but did go well at Chepstow last time out, when beat 3rd of 12, beaten by less than 4 lengths off a pound heavier than today.

I'm not sure that the above has really clarified things, but it does suggest that we might well have a really competitive affair on our hands. I think any of the four could win and they all have the right pace profile, so I should probably walk away and advise NO BET, but if I was to have or even just advice a bet, I'd consider the market for any possible value and as it looks like this...

Lady Adare 9/4 (Bet365/Hills)
No No Tonic 15/2 (Hills)
Petticoat Lucy 9/1 (Hills)
Gentle Connections (14/1 Bet365)

I'd probably swerve the fav and suggest small stakes E/W bets on any or all of the other three.

Good Luck!

Racing Insights, Saturday 01/04/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

...plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 2.17 Stratford
  • 3.05 Bellewstown
  • 5.00 Kempton
  • 6.30 Chelmsford
  • 7.00 Chelmsford

From which, we have a Class 2 race on the 'free' list and also one on the TJC list. The former is worth considerably more than the latter, so we're off to Essex for the 7.00 Chelmsford, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo A/W Conditions Stakes over a left-handed mile on standard polytrack...

Plenty of in-form runners here to consider, as you'd expect for a race of this standard with Physique winning last time out, Think Climate winning his last two, Bold Act & Iconic Moment have won three on the spin, whilst Brave Emperor has been first past the post in his last five efforts, even if he was demoted to second two starts ago. Stormy Entry is two from three and Coco jack/Tenjin are the ones who probably look weakest on recent results alone.

LTO winner Physique does step up two classes here, though, which will make life tougher as will a three step rise for hat-trick seeking Think Climate, but stablemates Iconic Moment and New Defifintion ran at Class 1 four weeks ago resulting in a James Tate-trained 1-2 in a Listed race with the pair separated by just a short head with the re-opposing Tenjin a length further back.

Only Brave Emperor (over 6f), Iconic Moment (7f) and Think Climate (7f) have won here at Chelmsford so far, whilst Bold Act (at Kempton & Newmarket), Brave Emperor (Kempton) and Stormy Entry (Dundalk) have all won over the one-mile trip. All bar three of the field have raced insde the last four weeks but Think Climate, Physique and Bold Act are returning from layoffs of 116, 155 and 191 days respectively.

It's a conditions stakes contest, so they all carry the same weight (9st 7lbs), meaning that the trio of Bold Act, Brave Emperor and Iconic Moment are best off at the weights, being rated at 101. Alzahir and New Definition are only officially rated one pound worse, but Stormy Entry and Think Climate are considered to be some 12/13 pounds worse than the top-rated trio.

Instant Expert has more stats for us, such as highlighting the six runners sharing eleven standard going wins between them and showing just one previous Class 2 A/W winner...

Brave Emperor is the obvious standout here along with Iconic Moment and I suspect that this pair are very likely to be amongst the ones we should be considering for our winner, whilst Tenjin doesn't appear to be well suited at all. Brave Emperor and Iconic Moment are both in the lower half of the draw in stalls 3 & 5 respectively...

...which is the better place to be, as the higher drawn runners have fared much worse than those in stalls 1 to 6. Draw, of course, isn't the be all and end all, especially here at Chelmsford, where the old adage is "get out quick and stay out", but is that really the case? Let's check...

Well, that's a definite yes! The further forward you race, the better the chance of a win/place, so let's consider the most recent pace profiles of the field...

...which suggests that Brave Emperor is likely to be front and centre here, along with some company, of course. Iconic Moment, however, may have to negotiate traffic later on if he's to succeed. Brave Emperor is therefore a low drawn leader and that looks ideal for this contest...

Think Climate will probably go hard early on, but the layoff might well take its toll and this is a big step up for Physique.

Summary

Iconic Moment looks a class act, but I'm not sure his running style lends itself to Chelmsford, so that hands the initiative to Brave Emperor who has ticked boxes throughout the process and at 9/2 could offer some real value. I expect Iconic Moment to be finishing fast, but I'm hoping he doesn't quite get there, but this pair could well be the first two home.

Racing Insights, Saturday 18/02/23

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Another blustery day expected on Saturday where the free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to consider...

...in addition to our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are set to be...

  • 1.20 Ascot
  • 2.40 Haydock
  • 3.27 Gowran Park
  • 3.50 Haydock
  • 5.30 Newcastle

Neither of my TJC Report runners appear to be in particularly good form, so I'm going to stay relatively close (approx 30 mile SW) from (my) home for a crack at the 3.50 Haydock, a 12-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left handed 2m4f on good to soft ground...

This looks (on paper, at least) a really open/competitive affair, a thought backed up be the fact that Hills (only book open at 3pm) had the first eleven in the betting split by just 5pts from 5/1 to 10/1! with Courtland the 18/1 outsider and the bottom weight 8 yr old does look the weakest to me too in a field where only Evander and If Not For Dylan won last time out, but the former hasn't raced for 689 days since scoring at Ludlow and the latter is up a class here, as is Garincha, whilst our two other class movers, Golden Whisky & Quid Pro Quo drop one and two classes respectively with the latter making a handicap debut 99 days after his last run where he was last of seven in a Cheltenham Grade 2.

Regarding form, only High Moon (placed in his last two) is without a win in five, although he did win six back almost a year ago. We know that Quid Pro Quo is on handicap debut already, but the card also says that Maypole Class has had wind surgery sometime in the last seven weeks and we're also told that the returning Evander has changed yards, but that's not quite true, it's more of a licencee name change with Josh Guerriero joining Oliver Greenall as joint-trainer during Evander's hiatus.

Garincha is the youngest here at 7yo, some 4 yrs younger than Magic Dancer and they are both among the ten in this race to have already won at a similar trip (Super Six & Courtland being the odd ones out), but only The Paddy Pie is a former Haydock winner, having won and placed in two efforts over course and distance. We know that Quid Pro Quo (99 days) and Evander (689d) have both been off for over three months, but the rest of the field have all raced inside two months, but seem spilt into two date ranges...

17-20 days off : Enzo D'Airy, Super Six, The Paddy Pie, High Moon, If Not For Dylan
48-59 days off : Golden Whisky, Magic Dancer, Maypole Class, Garincha, Courtland

We know that most of these should get the trip but only one has won here (only four have raced here), but Instant Expert can tell us more...

Golden Whisky has struggled in this grade at 1 from 11, but does have a win and a place from four at Class 2. Magic Dancer's 1/13 on good to soft is mainly hurdling form, he has one placed finish from three over fences. Enzo D'Airy is one from three over fences at this trip, but Maypole Class is probably a Class 4 runner. I'm a little surprised at The Paddy Pie's 1 from 9 on good to soft when his record is better on both Good and on Soft, so there's no reason why the ground should be an issue for him.

If we then consider the pace profiles of these runners, based on their last three or four outings, we see at least two definite groups forming, those that want to get on with it early doors and those that don't...

I'm not sure how Courtland will approach this to be honest, he tends to race prominently, but might inadvertently find himself back in mid-division if the six ranked above him all decide to make a go of it. What do I expect is that the ones towards the rear of the field will be the bottom four on that list.

Unfortunately there aren't many similar races to this in the Haydock programme and even with an expanded filter, we don't get much data from a search, but this is what we do see...

...where the out and out leaders (Evander/High Moon, perhaps?) end up getting beaten by those just in behind, which could bode well for The Paddy Pie, Enzo D'Airy, Super Six and Golden Whisky. Hold-up horses have struggled, which suggests a tough day for Quid Pro Quo, Maypole Class and Garincha, but If Not For Dylan won last time out after a change in tactics from hold-up to prominence. That was his first win in seven, since winning from an advanced position at Perth, so I suspect he might have more of a go at it today.

Summary

It could well turn out to be cracking race and it looks super competitive, so the smart advice is to walk away, put the kettle on or grab a beer and just sit and watch it. That said, I know some of you can't/won't do that, so to take the piece to a conclusion, I think I'd want to be with the likes of Enzo D'Airy on form/Instant Expert/pace, Super Six for his consistency and pace profile and also If Not For Dylan on form and possible pace.

These three are currently trading at 5/1, 15/2 and 9/1 with Hills who are paying four places here, so If Not For Dylan might not be a bad E/W bet at 9's.

Racing Insights, Saturday 11/02/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated just one runner under the 1-year form filter...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.25 Newbury
  • 2.33 Lingfield
  • 3.13 Warwick
  • 4.00 Naas
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton

It's a decent looking contest that Sayadam is entered into, but we don't often have top quality Grade 2 contests on the 'free list' and as it's named after one of my all-time favourite jumpers, I feel I should look at the Denman Chase. The card says it's the 2.25 Newbury, a 7-runner, 5yo+ handicap chase over 18 fences on good ground, The race is worth almost £40k to the winner and the trip is just shy of 2m7½f, these are the runners...

There's a school of thought that this is two races in one, where Eldorado Allen, Fanion D'Estruval and Hitman will battle it out for the big money and the rest scrap it out for the remnants of the pot and to be perfectly honest with you, I'd be inclined to agree.

Does He Know won LTO and four races ago, Hitman won two starts back, as did Zanza whilst Sam Brown won three back. Eldorado Allen, Sam Brown & Fanion D'Estruval all sport cheekpieces for the first time whilst Kalashnikow tries blinkers. Five of the field were last seen on Boxing Day, but Sam brown has been off for ten weeks and Does He Know's LTO win was three months ago. He's the only one yet to win here at Newbury, but he has won over a similar trip in a 3m chase at Ascot, whereas Sam Brown's distance win was over fences at Lingfield. Top and bottom on the card, Eldorado Allen and Zanza are former course and distance winners.

The Geegeez-sponsored yard of Anthony Honeyball train Sam Brown and he's the oldest in the field at 11, whilst the youngest is the likely fav, the 7yo Hitman who attempts to go beyond 2m5½f for only the second time (pulled up at Kempton LTO on first try). Hitman is however, best off at the weights based on weight carried to official ratings and he's 2lbs better off than Fanion D'Estruval and a whole 17lbs clear of Zanza, who looks worst off by a good way.

Those course and distance wins mentioned above are documented below in Instant Expert, along with the stats for Class and Going...

...and they interestingly show Does He Know in a very good light and he's already won a Grade 2 and a Class 1 handicap this year. Ten of Fanion D'Estruval's fourteen starts have been at Class 1, but he has yet to win any and has only made the frame twice. Hitman (0/9) and Kalashnikov (1/11) have also struggled at this level, but the former has at least made the frame in five of those nine defeats and will be seeking to do better here in a race where last year's winner Eldorado Allen and the veteran Sam Brown are the likeliest front-runners...

Three of the field were held up LTO, but I suspect they'll all race ahead of Fanion D'Estruval and Kalashnikov, because if they don't, there's going to be nothing going on behind the front pair who might set themselves up for a free tilt at the prize money. That's actually a decent tactic and the further back the hold-up types drop, the less chance they'll have of winning, if past races are anything to go by...

In fact the story of last year's win for Eldorado Allen goes like this...Led, but hit 12th fence and was narrowly headed at the 13th. He then chased and caught the leader for himself to lead again 4 out, ending up 3 lengths clear at the last, staying on strongly on the run-in... A similar approach here might well yield a similar result.

Summary

I'm not that keen on the favourite, Hitman, here to be honest. He bled last time out and that's a concern, he's never actually gone this far in a race and has a poor win record at Class 1, making Eldorado Allen a more attractive option to me at 11/4.

Fanion D'Estruval completes the 'favoured' trio, but he might have to come from a long way back to get involved and I've got a feeling that Does He Know might run a better race than his 7/1 odds might suggest. Bookies are generally paying three places here, so he might be an option for a cheeky E/W punt.

Whatever you decide to do, I hope you all have a great weekend. I'm away with the family for my mother-in-law's 75th Birthday, so my next instalment will be on Monday evening for Tuesday's racing.

Racing Insights, Saturday 04/02/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...but they have generated no runners for me to look at, so it's a good job we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 12.10 Lingfield
  • 1.55 Leopardstown
  • 2.20 Sandown
  • 3.16 Musselburgh
  • 5.30 Kempton

...from which, I'm going to look at the 3.16 Musselburgh, a 10-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle on good to soft ground. They'll go right handed for just over 1m7½f and here's the card...

Nayati and Lebowski both won last time out and have both won three of their last five runs, as indeed has Parisencore. Inca Prince has a couple of wins in his recent formline, whilst only Band of Outlaws and Kihavah are winless in five (7 & 8 to be precise!)

The afore-mentioned Parisencore last raced in Class 1 handciap and drops down a level to run here, whilst both Lebowski & Grivetana step up a level with out of form Kihavah up two classes from an A/W run, but is only one class higher than his last hurdles effort and after having failed to complete his last two hurdles races (FP) he now wears cheekpieces for the first time.

Despite his current poor form, Kihavahis one of five to have won over course and distance, along with Nayati, Inca Prince, Collingham and Socialist Agenda. The other five runners have all also won over a similar trip elsewhere, but none have scored here at Musselburgh.

Lebowski has been off the track for nine weeks, Parisencore for ten weeks and Inca Prince for nineteen weeks, so they might be a little rusty, but their seven rivals have all raced in the last five weeks with top-weight Camprond out as recently as last Saturday in a poor show at Cheltenham. He's also one of four (along with Band of Outlaws, Grivetana & Socialist Agenda) yet to win a NH race on good to soft ground, whilst Band Of Outlaws & Collingham are the only ones to have tackled Class 2 racing without winning, according to Instant Expert...

...where the ones making most appeal to me are Nayati, Lebowski, Inca Prince and Parisencore. Kivavah has some good numbers but is in wretched form, whilst last year's winner of this race, Socialist Agenda has also struggled of late and was only 6th of 10 here over course and distance on New Year's Day, some 15 and 13 lengths behind the first two home, the re-opposing Donald McCain trained duo Nayati and Collingham. Nayati is 313161 from his last six (so he probably wins his next one after this!) from a hold up position and based on how the field have positioned themselves in recent outings, he might have company at the rear of the field from Kivavah and possibly his stablemate Collingham...

Nayati's win from the back here last time out is more of an exception to the rule, as those setting the pace normally come out on top, but stats like these...

...won't concern the McCain yard, now they know it's difficult but not impossible.

Summary

Nayati ticks all boxes for me here, bar the pace profiling. He's in great form (3 wins and 2 places from 6), he's a course and distance winner only up 3lbs and he has a whole line of green on Instant Expert. The horses that finished third and fifth behind him and Collingham here on New Year's Day have both re-appeared and won, franking the form of that race and I'm happy to overlook his apparent poor pace profile. He has all his recent form from a hold up position and it did him no harm last time around, so he's the one to beat in my eyes.

Nayati is currently as big as 6/1 with both Coral & Ladbrokes and I think that might be generous as I expected him to be maybe a couple of points shorter. Stablemate Collingham is 3lbs better off with Nayati and could also run a big race, although 15/2 would be borderline in my opinion about an E/W bet. Lebowski is sure to be involved and his 4/1 ticket is about what I expected.

The two I though might have an outside squeak of being E/W picks were Parisencore & Inca Prince. They both scored well on Instant Expert and are likely to be setting the pace, so it's not inconceivable that one (or both!) might hang on for a place. Parisencore was going really well until stepped up to Class 1 last time out, so a drop in class and weight might revitalise him and 9/1 isn't a bad price, but the market isn't keen on Inca Prince, who can be had as big as 20/1. He had a good winter last year but his summer/autumn form left a fair bit to be desired and it's a case of which version turns up here. He's had 19 weeks off and I've a feeling that he'll either bounce back of just flop here, no inbetweens : the 20/1 gamble is whether he bounces or not. If it helps, Sky go 4 places 😉

Racing Insights, Saturday 28/01/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated qualifiers solely on the 1 year form filter for both track and generally, as follows...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.57 Uttoxeter
  • 2.05 Doncaster
  • 2.32 Uttoxeter
  • 3.15 Doncaster
  • 5.30 Kempton
  • 8.00 Kempton

And as it's quite rare for me to get a top level stayers' handicap on the 'free' list, I think I need to look at the second of our Town Moor offerings, the 3.15 Doncaster, a 12-runner, Class 1, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed three miles on good ground...

Quite a few of these come here in decent form; Mister Coffey, Java Point, Shanty Alley and Coopers Cross were all runners-up in their last race, whilst top-weight GA Law was a winner and Tea For Free has won four on the bounce.

Conversely Windsor Avenue has been pulled up in four of five runs since winnig this race last year and at the age of 11 isn't getting any younger/better. He is, however, the only course and distance winner in the field, courtesy of his run 12 months ago and both Undersupervision & Shanty Alley have Doncaster victories to their names via 3m2f chase wins. Elsewhere only GA Law, Elvis Mail, Mister Coffey, Undersupervision and Coopers Cross have yet to win at this trip.

Four of the top six in the weights raced at this grade last time out, but the rest of the field are either up 1 class (Elvis Mail, Java Point, Cooper's Cross, Cap du Nord) or stepping up from Class 3 action (Mister Coffey, Tea for Free, Undersupervision, Shanty Alley).

GA Law has been off the track the longest at eleven weeks, but within a day the rest of the field have had at least four weeks rest, but have raced in the last eight. GA Law comes back 8lbs higher than his LTO win meaning he'll now carry some 25lbs more than bottom-rated Cap du Nord.

We know that some have these have won over track and trip separately or together in Windsor Avenue's case, but Instant Expert tells me that we have six good ground chase winners and four Class 1 chase winners and although he has never tackled track nor trip, GA Law seems the best suited by conditions...

...but at 8lbs higher than LTO and 3½ furlongs further than he's ever raced before, this won't be a walk in the park with four of his rivals all having won at 3m2f. Windsor Avenue won this race last year, but his record at this class/trip are poor, as is Shanty Alley at the trip, whilst Cap du Nord just looks generally weak.

The corresponding place stats are interesting, though...

Windsor Avenue still looks like being outclassed and Cap du Nord looks like he'll struggle, but Shanty Alley would actually appear to get this trip well, he just doesn't win often enough (he has 8 places and 4 incompletes from his last 12!), but if he gets round he could go well, especially if he's allowed to dictate the tempo of the contest, as according to our pace stats over the field's last four outings, he looks like a candidate to lead them around...

...with Cooper's Cross and Undersupervision the ones biding their time at the back, a tactic that might enable them to pick tiring runners off late on and maybe make the frame, but those 'up top' seems to fare best of all...

Summary

On form you've got to be looking at Mister Coffey, Java Point, Shanty Alley, Coopers Cross, GA Law and Tea For Free as the stronger half of the field. Of these six, GA Law caught the eye on Instant Expert with the others scoring well on place form.

Coopers Cross runs the risk of having too much to do late on from a hold-up position and that's a negative for me. GA Law is probably the one to beat here, but I don't think 5/2 or 3/1 offers great value at 8lbs higher and quite a step up in trip. A similar story for Tea For Free regarding the weight going up by 7lbs, but he'll go well again, I'd guess. That said 11/2 isn't enough to tempt me into an E/W bet.

One who might be worth considering as a long shot E/W punt is front-running Shanty Alley. Instant Expert shows he makes the frame regularly and has done so in 8 of his last 12 and 8 of the last 8 he has completed! He's currently as big as 20/1 and some firms will pay five places instead of four, so who knows?

No column on Sunday for Monday's racing, I'm away for the weekend (Mrs Chris' birthday), but I'll be back with a preview for Tuesday, so have a great weekend.

Racing Insights, Saturday 21/01/23

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Another cold day expected on Saturday where the free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to consider...

...in addition to our daily list of 'free' racecards, which were set to be...

  • 12.40 Ascot
  • 1.30 Haydock
  • 2.12 Lingfield
  • 3.00 Ascot
  • 4.20 Taunton
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton

Seeing as we've already lost Ascot and Taunton and there are doubts over Haydock and Southwell, I'm going to hang fire and wait until Saturday morning before adding my preview.

As those of us up in the North West expected, we lost Haydock too, leaving me with two 'free' races and two possibles from the TJC Report. The best (on paper, at least) of those four races is the one featuring the Haggas/Marquand combo above, the 2.47 Lingfield, an 8-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ fillies' A/W handicap over a left handed 1m2f on standard polytrack. It's the Winter Oaks and is worth over £50k and we do have a short-priced fav, but let's see how Morgan Fairy might get on against these...

I normally do my piece before the markets have fully formed, but today I can see the full picture and the betting seems to spilt the field into two halves...

...and my own figures also have the same spilt, where I'm expecting Al Agaila, Purple Ribbon, Morgan Fairy and Makinmedoit as the ones to focus on, but I'm going to see if a case can be made for a longer-priced E/W punt.

The Flying Ginger is the only one of the field without a win in her most recent form line and I'm going to dismiss her straight from the start because she's not in great form, her yard isn't firing right now, she's up two classes and runs from 6lbs out of the handicap. That's probably as many negatives as one needs!

As for the others, all have at least one win from five, Makinmedoit and Al Agaila have two and the latter is one of three (with Morgan Fairy & Aiming High) who won last time out. Fetured horse, Morgan Fairy is up one class here whilst At A Pinch and Aiming High are up two and three grades respectively. Top weight, Purple Ribbon, however was a runner-up, beaten by just a neck in a Listed race whern last seen.

The fav, Al Agaila, won on handicap debut last time out, landing the Winter Oaks Trial here over course and distance with the re-opposing Makinmedoit & Tequilamockingbird separated by a short head, some 2.5 lengths behind the winner. All three of those horses have now won over this course and distance.

At A Pinch makes a handicap debut here and she's the only one without a win at track or trip and hasn't raced on the Flat/AW for fifteen months, which will make this tough. After the three C&D winners, only Morgan Fairy has won at this venue, getting home by a neck over a mile on New Year's Eve.

All eight have run in the last eight weeks with just The Flying Ginger and Aiming High with a run in 2023. This pair are the only two yet to win on standard going, half of the field are previous Class 2 winners and we've already talked about course/distance winners. Instant Expert brings all this data together in a simple-to-view graphic...

As per the market and my own figures, Makinmedoit and Al Agaila feature strongly. Purple Ribbon has little experience and is without a Class 2 run, but did come very close to landing a Listed race last time out. Morgan Fairy tackles an A/W 1m2f for the first time here after running mainly over a mile, so may have to dig deep.

Of the lesser favoured half of the field, Tequilamockingbird is the one most likely to "win" that race on these figures. She has 3 wins and 2 places from 7 A/W starts, finishing 113 in her three visits to Lingfield all over course and distance.

She's drawn in stall 6, one place inside Makinmedoit, whilst the other three principals have bagged the inside three berths over a course and distance that would initially appear to favour those drawn lowest...

...but stall-by-stall data suggests that it's not quite that clear-cut...

...and I personally, wouldn't be too concerned which of the eight stalls my runner emerged from to be honest. Ideally, stalls 2 or 3 would be great, but even box 8 has won as often as #3. The Geegeez Pace/Draw heat map would tend to suggest tht this race could be won/lost by where in the field a horse positions itself..

..as aside from low drawn leaders, prominent runners are the most successful irrespective of draw and this is backed up by the pace stats for those 130+ races above...

These say to that a hold-up runner represents your worst chance of getting any money back from an E/W perspective and the win chance is almost as poor as those in mid-division. Mid-div horses do make the frame almost as often as prominent runners, but I think you're going to want a runner in the front half of the pack and based on this field's most recent runs...

...that's yet another tick for Al Agaila, but interestingly both Purple Ribbon and Makinmedoit are hold-up types. The latter, of course was second to the fav here LTO from that hold-up position, so it might not necessarily rule her out, especially as she's now 10lbs better off!

So, from my original four Al Agaila is the low drawn leader we looked for, Morgan Fairy is likely to be prominent, as also possible E/W punt Tequilamockingbird should be.

Summary

I started with four 'most likelys' and I think they're still exactly that, but it's very hard to get away from the 10/11 favourite Al Agaila. My pockets aren't deep enough to have a large enough bet to make it worthwhile, but if I did then she'd be the one here for me. That said, Makinmedoit is now 10lbs better than her runner-up run LTO which should get her much closer to the fav (on paper), although you suspect there's far more to come from the winner.

At 9/1, though, Makinmedoit wouldn't be a bad E/W prospect and at as big as 16's in places, nor would Teqiulamockingbird. I still think Purple Ribbon and Morgan fairy will run well, but they're not my idea of a winner in this race and aren't long enough for me to back E/W.

Whatever happens, it has the makings of a decent contest.