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Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day Four Preview, Tips

16 March 2023/in Cheltenham Festival Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day Four Preview, Tips

We're onto Give Back Friday, which is bad news if you're already in negative equity. Traditionally the hardest of the four days, this year Day Four looks as fiendish as ever. Still, where there's light there's hope...

1.30 Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m1f)

Time was when the Triumph Hurdle, for four-year-old novices only, could throw up a shock or three. And, in 2019, the winner was returned 20/1 in spite of being unbeaten in one over hurdles and trained by Nicky Henderson; a year later, in 2020, the winner was 12/1 even though she was unbeaten in one over hurdles and trained by Willie Mullins. Go figure.

With the advent of the Fred Winter (Boodles) handicap for the same age group, Triumph fields tend to be a little thinner these days: the average field was 26 between 1997 and 2004, compared with 16 since 2005, the first year of Fred Boodles. In the past five years, the average field size has been just eleven runners. Yet this time, we have 15, in a few cases as a result of the Boodles over-subscribing and, therefore, the dreaded 'social runners'.

In recent seasons, only Henderson (twice) and Philip Hobbs have managed to repel the Irish raiders, and this season looks virtually certain to result in another 'away win'. That man Willie - Triumph winner in 2020 and 2022 - and before he was a 'thing' in 2002, with Scolardy, ridden by Charlie Swan - has the market in a half nelson this time, courtesy of his t'riffic triumvirate of Lossiemouth, Blood Destiny and Gala Marceau, along with four others!

Lossiemouth was considered the pick of the Closutton squad, even though she finished behind Gala Marceau in the key prep, the Spring Juvenile Hurdle. There, she endured a difficult transit and Gala scampered clear. There's no doubt Lossie was unlucky in second, and there's little doubt that the margin would have been narrower with a clear passage for her; but the market has them further apart than perhaps they ought to be. Gala Marceau was having her first run away from France when a seven length second to Lossiemouth the time before, and she would have narrowed that margin the last day regardless of clear or troubled trips in behind. She has more experience and could improve again.

Blood Destiny is harder to fathom, having not yet faced Graded company. He was second to Bo Zenith, whose limitations have since been exposed, in France before Willie sent him unbeaten in two. He won his maiden by five lengths in a field of 20 from Sir Allen (two from two since), and then sauntered 18 lengths clear of 131-rated Common Practice and subsequent Adonis Hurdle winner, Nusret.

Still Willie has more. Zenta won a Listed hurdle at Auteuil, jumping flawlessly, and was again brilliant - apart from annihilating the flights in the straight! - at Fairyhouse (Grade 3) last time. I wonder if the sun was in their eyes that day because those blemishes were out of character with everything else she'd done. Mullins suggested it might have been because she was in front, in which case she'll be ridden patiently in the Triumph. She has a similar profile to Burning Victory and is a big price in that context.

Milton Harris has enjoyed an incredible renaissance in the past two seasons, plenty of which is down to his inspired campaigning of juvenile hurdlers. The flag-bearer in that discipline this term is Scriptwriter, bought off the flat from Aidan O'Brien and a winner of his first two hurdle races. That double included the Grade 2 Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle here; but he's since run a close second to Comfort Zone - again at Cheltenham - and, more concerningly, was thumped in the Adonis. Perhaps that more speed-favouring hurdle track did for him, or maybe he was feeling the effects of some hard races; either way, he's now a precarious proposition in this company.

The rest don't look good enough, though Je Garde is a total unknown after a debut third at Auteuil. The winner has won her two starts since, and the runner up won next time, too, all in and around Paris, so the form - in French terms at least - stacks up.

Triumph Hurdle Pace Map

Not one to take too literally with the limited amount of form on the table; but it would be wrong-headed to think that (at least) one of the Willie's won't go to the front. It might be Blood Destiny, but not necessarily.

Triumph Hurdle Selection

This is a Willie cartel. It's not a question of whether he wins but with which of his many options he does so. Lossiemouth and Gala Marceau should be in close proximity to each other, while Zenta and especially Blood Destiny are unknowns at this level and could be better or, more probably, worse than the G1 proven pair. Lossiemouth is the most solid and probably ought to be favourite on track performances; but obviously the yard has a line on the perceived hierarchy.

Suggestion: Tricasts or trifectas with Lossiemouth/Gala Marceau, and Blood Destiny/Zenta, might be a way to get almost everything right about the race and still lose money!

2.10 County Hurdle (Grade 3 Handicap, 2m1f)

For such an open handicap, this race has been dominated by a handful of trainers in recent times. Paul Nicholls bagged four of them between 2004 and 2014, Dan Skelton - Nicholls' protégé - claimed three of his own between 2016 and 2019, and, of course, Willie Mullins has his fingerprints all over this trophy as well: six wins since 2010. That's 13 of the last 19 County Hurdles shared among them.

If we, sensibly, extend the sequence to 20 races to render it slightly less arbitrary, we will note that six of the remaining seven renewals were won by another Irish trainer. So, in the past two decades, the score reads W Mullins 6, rest of Ireland 6, P Nicholls 4, D Skelton 3, rest of UK 1. This is a handicap that has been contested by 24+ horses in all but one of those 20 years. Wow.

My shortlist is Sharjah, Hunters Yarn, Path d'Oroux and Pembroke.

Sharjah is top weight, and that's because he has been there, seen it, done it. He's in the Arctic Fire mould of Willie County winners, as a dual Grade 1 winner just 15 months ago. Though he might be a touch below that level now, he's still run close to State Man twice this season before a lovely trial for this at Gowran last time. He's going to cruise all over these through the race and then it's a question of whether either of age and/or weight tell in the closing stages. They might not.

Willie also saddles Hunters Yarn, a high class novice and winner of his last two hurdling starts, most recently a Listed novice at Navan. He bolted up there, in a small field, and was 13 lengths too good for two dozen rivals on his previous run; but this is a significant step up in class. The fact he's handled a big field is a plus and I have already backed him; I'd be less attracted by his current odds from a value perspective, however.

Lower down the field is the potentially very kindly weighted Path d'Oroux. This fellow won a bumper and a maiden hurdle, both in huge fields, before his sights were raised to Grade 1 novice company. He pulled up behind Supreme winner Marine Nationale on his first attempt, and was then fourth to Supreme runner up Facile Vega on his second G1 try, beaten far enough. An easy score in lesser grade since will have boosted confidence and he might be a 'lurker' for his shrewd trainer, Gavin Cromwell.

The best of the British could very well be the Dan Skelton-trained Pembroke, whose profile screams County Hurdle. A lightly raced novice having won his bumper this time last year, he was seventh to Grade 1-winning Tahmuras on seasonal bow. He then easily won a pair of novice hurdles, one in a big field, before running second in the Grade 2 novice on Trials day over two and a half miles. That will have been a perfect prep for this and, if anyone can from this side of the water, Dan can, with easily the best race record in the past decade.

Many more can win, natch, including Filey Bay, an Emmet Mullins-trained runner who has done everything he can to show the UK handicapper he's not as good as he actually is, while still winning twice and running second in the Betfair Hurdle last time. He also has a lovely racing weight but a commensurately skinny quote.

County Hurdle Pace Map

The Chris Gordon pair may be to the fore, as might something from the Mullins quartet; and so might a number of others. This is unlikely to be a pedestrian gallop.

County Hurdle Selection

The more I look at this, the more I think old boy Sharjah (8/1) still retains more than enough talent to overcome his weight allocation. He has no secrets from the handicapper, but sometimes the good ones just win, don't they? And I think 9/1 Pembroke is sure to run well, even allowing for the hard time UK novices have had against their Irish counterparts. He's with the right man, and has a featherweight to carry. I'll probably have a small bit of 16/1 Path d'Oroux as well. Keep the extra place concessions in mind again here.

Suggestion: Back a few each way with extra places, perhaps including some/all of the above trio.

2.50 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)

The Spuds Race. Ten years ago, At Fishers Cross won at a starting price of 11/8. Since then, eight winners have returned a double figure SP, including 50/1 and 33/1 twice. Willie Mullins has had winners at 16/1 and, last year, 18/1 since 2017. It's that sort of a race.

There are lots of credible horses at the top of the market, notably another Emmet green and golder, Corbetts Cross (who did remarkably well to win over two miles last time), Hiddenvalley Lake and Favori de Champdou. Literally nobody will be shocked if one of those, or Three Card Brag or Embassy Gardens, wins. But that's not the way to play this race, is it?

We need to ask, and answer, the question, "why do so many big prices win the Spuds?"

My contention - and a lot of other peoples', also - is that it is to do with the juxtaposition of pace between the trial races and the Albert Bartlett itself. In plain English, five runner 2m6f Grade 2's do not translate well to 16-runner three mile Grade 1's. In the latter, they go faster and demand less class but more stamina and steel.

A quick look at some of those big priced winners reveals an identikit of sorts:

The Nice Guy was stepping up more than half a mile in trip after winning a huge field maiden
Vanillier was another big field maiden scorer before getting outpaced in an 8 runner race. Was wrong in G1 before Cheltenham
Minella Indo was 3rd in small field maiden and 2nd in a small field Grade 3 (3m) before relishing this stiffer test
Kilbricken Storm won at Cheltenham (3m) before getting outpaced/not handling heavy in G1 (2m5f)
Penhill had actually won a small field 3m G2 on his prior start and was just a big price on the day
Very Wood was stepping up to 3m for the first time having finished 3rd of 3 over 2m4f

Small field preps, up in trip seem to be the main clues. Let's see if that can be applied to anything at a bumper price this year...

Sandor Clegane fits the bill but is too short a price having run third in a G1 last time. I'm unashamedly swinging at the big odds here and obviously that probably means a losing bet; but the risk/reward ratio is in our favour based on the nature of the beast.

Gigginstown-owned and Gordon Elliott-trained is Search For Glory, keeping on in third behind subsequent G1 winner and Ballymore fourth Good Land over 2m4f; and then keeping on for a much closer third over 3m in a five-runner Grade 3 last time. He's very interesting for this assignment.

Affordale Fury is trained by Noel Meade, who saddled 33/1 Very Wood in 2014. A winner from the front in a 14-runner maiden (2m6f, soft), he then fell at the last when contesting in a 2m4f G3. Most recently he was outpaced all the way in the G1 Lawlor's of Naas (2m4f, soft) but made some minor headway. I'm not sure that's good enough even when looking through the big-priced prism.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Pace Map

Expect many fewer than the number which start to finish. There is plenty of pace on, and it will be the tough and hardy blokes over the classy but flimsy snowflakes - if you'll pardon the phrase - that prevail.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Selection

The horses I'm interested in are all far less credible winners on the evidence of the form book, so if you're following me you need to know they might bomb out completely. In that scenario, win only is the way to go (and we can cry together later when rounding out the minor podium positions!!) - and I'm going with Search For Glory and Sandor Clegane against the top of the market. This is a race where it feels like we'll have a bit of a chance with our windmill-tilting; at least, it often is that way.

Suggestion: Back something that has been getting outpaced in smaller fields and/or over shorter trips. 25/1 Search For Glory and 14/1 Sandor Clegane are my guesses against the field. Lots of more obvious horses, so this is a bet where I'm happy to wave goodbye to the tenner.

3.30 Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1, 3m 2 1/2f)

This is the big one, the Blue Riband. The Cheltenham Gold Cup is the pinnacle of the sport and is always a fantastic spectacle, though winner-finding can be tricky.

This season, one horse towers above the rest in terms of his chance; that horse is Galopin Des Champs. Trained by, you guessed it, Willie Mullins, Galopin Des Champs won the 2021 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle and would have cruised home in the Turners Novices' Chase a year ago but for falling at the last. Since then, he's won three straight Grade 1's, a novice at Fairyhouse's Easter fixture and two opens this campaign, the John Durkan and the Irish Gold Cup.

The margin of victory in that trio of G1 was scores was 18L, 13L and 8L, and he appeared to answer the stamina question with his three mile win last time - partially, at least. The Gold Cup is, of course, three miles two and a half furlongs, and that's another quarter mile and more than he's gone to date. So will he stay? That's simply not an easy question to answer. His sire, Timos, has had no other runners in Britain or Ireland; himself a German-bred (by Sholokhov out of a Surumu mare), he raced in lower Group class on the level at ten to twelve furlongs. His dam, Manon Des Champs, was by a US-bred stallion, Marchand De Sable, who won a heavy ground ten furlong Group 1 as a two-year-old. Helpful? Not really, I know. Where I get to is that there must be at least some chance he won't stay in a truly-run Gold Cup, especially if the going is on the softer side. But if stamina holds, he is the clear form pick.

There are pro's and con's with all his main market rivals. Let's consider a few, starting with A Plus Tard. The pro's are that he won last year's Gold Cup and was second in the race a year prior; thus, we know he stays, we know he handles the track and we know he has the class to win the race. But the con is a big one: he has only been seen once since this day last year, when bombing out completely in the Betfair Chase, a race in which he'd pulverised his opposition twelve months earlier. Add to that the fact that he was due to run at Christmas - his trainer related to attheraces.com, "he got a bang that ruled him out of Christmas, so we said back in January that we’d go straight to the Gold Cup". You've got to take a lot on trust to side with A Plus Tard at this stage against something of a changing of the guard - some high class second and third season chasers.

One such second season chaser is Bravemansgame, winner of the King George in dominating fashion at Christmas. A look at the Paul Nicholls-trained star's form profile renders most of the names he's been called grossly unfair: as well as that G1 King George, he's won the G1 Challow Hurdle, the G1 Feltham/Kauto Star, and the G2 Charlie Hall. His sole Cheltenham run was at the 2021 Festival when he was third to Bob Olinger in the Ballymore. He tried to make all that day in a bigger field than he's typically faced, and was spent in the run to the line. This season, he's raced more patiently under Harry Cobden, and followed a gutsy win at Wetherby with a classy one at Kempton.

But is he a "flat track bully"? Yuk, it's such a horrible phrase - I apologise for using it; and I only do it to counter the barb. As you can see from the image below, in the 'Profile' section, he's only run on flat tracks over fences - that means he can't handle undulating tracks no more than a horse encountering different underfoot for the first time.

What it does mean is we don't know whether he'll handle it or not; but what we do know is that he has excellent form this season, stays pretty well, jumps well, has class and can be ridden wherever. Given his odds, that's a lot of positives on which to take a chance that he might not handle the track.

This time last year, Noble Yeats was finishing slightly better than midfield in the Ultima Handicap Chase, which is not a well known springboard to the Gold Cup! Of course, he followed that effort up with a dazzling 50/1 triumph in the Grand National. It didn't pan out first time this season at Auteuil but he then doubled up at Wexford (Listed) and Aintree (Grade 2) before running a fair third in the G2 Cotswold Chase in late January. That looked every inch a prep - think last season's Ultima - for his spring targets, which are this race and a defence of his National title. Noble Yeats obviously stays well and he handles any ground, too. It could reasonable be argued that his best form is on flat tracks, too, though.

Stattler was a staying-on second to Galopin Des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup and won the NH Chase at last year's Festival; so he is another second season chaser and has stamina in abundance. He has also demonstrated his aptitude for the track, albeit Old and New courses here are different tests; and he seems to handle most terrain. This season he was just pipped in a sprint (relative, it was heavy ground) finish over 2m6f before beating all bar GdC last time: his is a nicely progressive profile.

Running here rather than the Ryanair, where Conflated fell a year ago when likely booked for second, is a nod to the regard in which his trainer, Gordon Elliott, holds the horse. A look at his form implies this is the right race: a pair of three-mile Grade 1 wins at Leopardstown have been supported by a silver medal in the 3m1f G1 Aintree Bowl, and it's not impossible this longer trip will eke out a couple of pounds further improvement. If it does, he's another who figures on the premises.

Lucinda Russell trains the hugely popular second season chaser Ahoy Senor, second in last year's Brown Advisory Novices' Chase and winner of the G1 Mildmay Novices' Chase at Aintree. This campaign started on the back foot with a hard race in the Charlie Hall, the mark from which was probably left when he ran flat enough at Aintree and Kempton subsequently; but he got right back on track last time when beating Noble Yeats and Sounds Russian in the Cotswold Chase. The problem is that Sounds Russian, though progressive, is some way short of the ability required here; and, further, that Noble Yeats is expected to be a different proposition fitness-wise this time. All that said, Ahoy Senor does have a chance to control the pace and, if doing that easily, may be difficult to shake off in the finish.

One of the great under-rated horses of recent Cheltenham Festivals is Minella Indo. Winner of the 2019 Albert Bartlett (at 50/1!), he showed that was no fluke when running up to Champ in a memorable (for all the wrong reasons if you, like me, punted him) 2020 RSA Chase. Then, at the top table, he won the Gold Cup in 2021 from A Plus Tard, and got closest to that one last year - granted, that was no closer than 15 lengths. He's only had one run this season, a win, in the previously referenced New Year's Day Chase at Tramore. Trainer Henry de Bromhead is calling his quiet lead up "the best preparation he's ever had for Cheltenham" and, even aged 10, his Fez form of 1212 commands plenty of respect: he's been here and got the T-shirt, so to speak.

Two and a half lengths behind Minella Indo last year, and nearly twenty back from A Plus Tard, was Protektorat. On the face of it, he has a mountain to climb; but he was only seven then and one year more mature now - a good age for a Gold Cup challenger. He barrelled clear of the Betfair Chase field in November, scoring by eleven lengths, but was behind Ahoy Senor, Sounds Russian and Noble Yeats in the Cotswold Chase on his sole run since. He was sent off 5/4 favourite there, so presumably was fit enough; nevertheless, he's sure to come on for the run and is another on a very long list of place possibles and, on the Haydock run, not out of it for the win.

There are others with good form that doesn't quite match up to a Gold Cup. Royale Pagaille will again have his followers - all of them rain dancers - and he may again lollop into fourth or fifth; but he's unlikely to get the pace setup, though he may get the deep ground, he needs to outstay smarter oppo.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Pace Map

It might be that Ahoy Senor gets a free hit on the lead, which would be optimal for his legion supporters. There is a group of others who like to race handily and it's no more than evens that something from that cohort contests with the Senor.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Selection

A very tough race to weigh up. If you think Galopin Des Champs will definitely stay, there's your bet as he's looked a Rolls Royce for a couple of seasons. If you don't, or you want to bet something each way, it's trappier. You're asked to take a lot on trust with A Plus Tard, you have to assume Bravemansgame will handle Cheltenham's undulations, or you have to believe that the likes of Minella Indo and Royale Pagaille still retain sufficient verve to mix it with the kids.

Or you can just back Noble Yeats each way and see how close he gets.

Suggestion: Back 9/1 Noble Yeats each way with four or, preferably, five places.

4.10 Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase (Class 2, 3m 2 1/2f)

The hunter chase gold cup (small 'g', small 'c') and always a good - if sometimes faintly bonkers - watch. As with the Gold Cup itself, the previous renewal is often the best form guide. Twelve months ago, it was heartbreak for David Christie and Winged Leader as his notable lead was whittled to nothing a stride from the line and Billaway pipped him. Billaway himself was certainly not winning out of turn, having been second in 2020 and 2021. Although he's eleven now, that's more a positive in a race where the last eight winners were all aged ten or eleven and where there have been three back-to-back winners since 2012.

After Cheltenham last year, Billaway won a thriller against another rising star from the Christie yard, Vaucelet, but, on debut this season, he was thrashed by yet another Christie inmate, Ferns Lock. Since then, Willie Mullins' star hunter has somewhat unconvincingly despatched a lesser field. Though he always brings his 'A game' to Cheltenham, he arrived in slightly better nick the previous twice, I feel. He tends to race on the lead and there might be a little more contention for that this season, which could add a further challenge to his defence.

Vaucelet is the chosen one of Christie's three and, aged eight, would be the youngest winner since Salsify in 2013 (who had also won aged seven a year earlier). Based on his form, youth won't stop him and, as a winner over three and half miles in the Stratford Champion Hunter Chase late last spring, he ought not to fail for stamina either. He's progressive where Billaway might be slightly on the downgrade, the fine margin between them at Punchestown a year ago perhaps not enough in the champ's favour now.

The British challenge - historically strong, as shown by four of the past six winners - is headed up by Chris Barber's Famous Clermont. Another eight-year-old, he's sent the likes of Shantou Flyer and Envious Editor packing this season, including when romping to victory in the Walrus Hunter Chase, a high class contest in the sector run in February. Famous Clermont made a few errors in the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham's April hunter chase meeting last year and was eventually pulled up (as the 6/5 favourite), and his continued propensity for a mistake is a niggle.

Paul Nicholls has won this four times since 2004, with Earthmover, Sleeping Night, and Pacha du Polder twice. Since PdP's last win, in 2018, Nicholls is 0/4, though Bob And Co failed to jump round as his sole representative in the past two seasons - at short prices both times. This year, the Ditcheat yard have Secret Investor as their main hope. Now eleven, all of his best form - both as a hunter and previously under Rules - was on decent ground, so the wet week in the run up may be a concern. Cat Tiger, for the same yard, handles softer terrain and, while seemingly a little out of form this term, he's been racing in Class 2 and 3 handicap chases under Rules. His 2nd of 23 in last year's Aintree Hunter Chase (2m6f) gives him a squeak if he stays this far.

Bob And Co is now with Harry Derham, Nicholls' former assistant and, if he can jump round, he'd be a place player even at the age of 12. But I don't like backing horses who fail to complete.

Meanwhile, former Gold Cup runner Chris's Dream has won two point to points recently and comes here in form. He has obvious back class but he didn't get home in the Gold Cup and has never won over this far. His last win of any description under Rules was more than three years ago.

One of the first questions in this race is often, "What's Jamie Codd riding?" Answer: The Storyteller. A former Festival winner on soft ground, his stamina for this longer shift is presumed rather than established; but we do know he handles the other conditions and represents the most robust of connections: Gordon Elliott still trains him.

Rocky's Howya is a bit of a 'wise guy' horse getting some love on the preview circuit. He's young - seven - and been bashing up his rivals in point to points to a fair level of form. But I feel he should be a bigger price: he's one for the guessers - which, in fairness, most of us are in this race, if not the other 27 at the Festival!

A couple to mention in the long grass are Dorking Cock, Mighty Stowaway and I K Brunel. Dorking Cock has form with Vaucelet that gives that one only a small edge over this bigger priced runner. It's possible - perhaps likely - that Vaucelet was under-cooked that day; and DC had previously been thumped by Billaway. Still, he stays and handles all ground. Mighty Stowaway was third last year and represents the top UK point yard of Alan Hill; he might just be regressing aged twelve now but he'll surely run better than his early season form. From the same yard and still on the ascendant in this sphere is I K Brunel. He was a 130-rated chaser last season for Olly Murphy and comfortably beat Not That Fuisse in a hunter chase last time. He probably wants quick ground.

Maybe the ground has come right for Shantou Flyer, a horse that loves it soft and stays very well. He's 13 now, which is probably too old, and he's ridden by Paul Nicholls' daughter, Olive, who will obviously have grown up around horses and be very well schooled.

Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Pace Map

Pinch of salt pace map because we don't have point form so these are Rules races only.

Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Selection

I hope Vaucelet wins, for connections of Winged Leader who was so cruelly denied on the line last year; but he's a short enough price. Billaway is an obvious horse to run close and is around 8/1 - he was the horse to pip the Leader last year, and has run 221 in this the past three years. In the longer grass, horses like The Storyteller and perhaps Shantou Flyer may still have enough gusto about them to hit the board.

Suggestion: Back 8/1 Billaway each way with extra places and you'll probably get close to the winner's enclosure and hopefully the payout window.

4.50 Mares' Chase (Grade 2, 2m 4 1/2f)

The Festival is pretty much over for me at this point, I have to concede. I have little interest in the Mares' Chase and know I'm not good enough to handicap the Martin Pipe. So let's keep it brief...

Allegorie de Vassy is a classy mare, winner of all four races - two hurdles and two chases - since moving from France to Willie in Ireland. Her two fencing scores were in Grade 2's, the same level as this, and she bolted up on both heavy and yielding so there are no grounds for concern, as it were. She has jumped right on occasion which, given this is a left-handed track, would mean she concedes a few lengths at her obstacles potentially: that, clearly, is undesirable for all that she may have a few lengths in hand of the rest.

The obvious danger is Impervious, herself a winner of three straight, including in G2 and G3 the last twice. She handles soft very well and had the beating of Grand Annual runner up (should have won) Dinoblue by three lengths two back. She's tough and seems to stay well.

Jeremys Flame is tough and consistent, graduating this season from handicaps to win a Listed race at Huntingdon last time. She's nine though, a veteran of 29 races, and her form is not as compelling as the other pair. She just about fits on the pick of her ratings, however.

Magic Daze has to prove she staze - sorry, stays; and the rest, most notably last year's winner Elimay, need to revert to the pick of their back class to feature. Zambella does look like getting her optimal soft turf and 2m4f trip

Mares' Chase Pace Map

A good bit of pace on, which will test jumping. Allegorie de Vassy, Magic Daze and Zambella are expected to be front rank.

Mares' Chase Selection

This looks between the top two in the betting but they're not that far clear on ratings. What they do have is more scope than most of their rivals, and I think Impervious looks slightly better suited to the task, particularly with no reservations about her jumping (please don't let me have jinxed her jumping).

Suggestion: Back 5/2 Impervious to win, or retire to the bar and watch.

5.30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3, 2m 4 1/2f)

To the lucky last. Erm. We're probably looking for a potential Grade 1 horse of the future. The alumni for this final race includes Sir Des Champs, Don Poli, Killultagh Vic, Galopin Des Champs and Banbridge. All those mentioned were Irish-trained, too. So that will be my starting point.

The top three in the betting are all defensively short at time of writing: around 5/1 each. They are Spanish Harlem, Imagine, and Cool Survivor.

Spanish Harlem cost €360,000 at the Arqana sale last summer, and he'll pocket... checks notes... £39,000 if he comes out on top here. More to the point, if he does win, he's probably smart enough to be contesting for bigger purses in the not too distant future. He's gone to Willie's and, though a hurdle winner in France already, has yet to add to that tally in three races since the stable switch. Of course that might very well be by design and, in any case, he's been running in small fields where his French victoire was against 16 rivals.

Gordon has the other two at the top, Imagine another to pepper the places without winning in recent efforts. He steps up from two miles to this two and a half, and was still entered in the three mile Albert Bartlett until 48 hour decs: clearly connections have few reservations about his stamina. He's been second in a Grade 3 and a Listed race since November and this will have been the plan.

Cool Survivor is also a Gordie runner and he, too, was in the Spuds before routing here. He finished fourth in a 2m6f G1 at the DRF last time and, prior to that, had won and been second (G3) over three miles. This step back in trip is a small niggle for a horse who, while doubtlessly having a splash of class, seems to stay very well.

At bigger prices, Firm Footings is in the same ownership and trainership (sic) as Imagine; he's had plenty of practice in defeat and steps up in grade for handicap debut with, like many others, the handibrake presumed off now. And Haxo is another Willie possible. Like all those previously mentioned, he's making his handicap bow after a couple of mark-securing efforts. His sixty length sixth in last year's Ballymore doesn't read as promisingly as some of the other form lines but he could still run well.

If there is to be a British winner, it's most likely to be from the barn of either Dan Skelton or Paul Nicholls. Skelton saddles two, Molly Olly's Wishes and West To The Bridge, but both are hooj prices and not remotely obvious winners even allowing for Dan being the UK Man in this setup. Dr Ditcheat has a credible contender in Irish Hill, a highly progressive handicapper that has won his last three, including most recently in a good Class 2 at Ascot. His problem is that we know pretty much what he is: he could improve three or four pounds but the winner here is probably going to find eight to ten pounds on its published rating.

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Pace Map

Plenty of pace on, as you'd expect for a big field handicap hurdle at Cheltenham; perhaps more so because it's a conditional jockeys' race.

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Selection

I obviously don't know. The market has been a fair guide to the Martin Pipe winner, with seven of the last nine sent off 12/1 or shorter (and one other at 14/1). I'd rather have a small interest in the top of the market than set fire to money lower down the lists; and I'll be a bit left and right by this point anyway - Friday is Brown Bear hostelry day!

I'm not trying to be too clever here, and I've had a quid each on 9/2 Spanish Harlem and 5/1 Imagine, win only. I told you I wasn't trying to be clever.

Suggestion: Back Spanish Harlem and/or Imagine, win only. Or bet something else. It's your life, after all 😉

And so, the end of a testing but glorious four days is in sight. Win or lose, it's a pleasure to fritter so many hours in the form book, and to share my cogitations with you: it's normally the case that I get many more points for the 'working out' than for scribbling down the correct answer. But, for weirdos like me (and maybe like you, too), the joy is almost all in the working out; in the puzzle. All the same, it obviously helps when we land on a fat one or two.

Be lucky.

Matt

Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day 3 Preview, Trends, Tips

14 March 2023/in Cheltenham Festival Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day 3 Preview, Tips

And so to the second half. Still 14 races to go at, including the Stayers' Hurdle, Ryanair Chase and, of course, Friday's Gold Cup. Lots of smaller supporting fish that might also taste sweet, starting with...

1.30 Turners Novices' Chase (Grade 1, 2m 4f)

A bigger field than last year's though, with just four then, that's not difficult!

We have a worthy favourite in Mighty Potter, who brings a four-race unbeaten streak and a career tally of seven wins from nine starts to the table. He's a Grade 1 winner on both his most recent spins, each over this sort of trip, and on form he is clear of his field. If you want a counterargument, it's this: in last year's Supreme he arrived similarly solid-looking off the back of a Grade 1 novice hurdle gold; but he was just not engaged on the day, pulling up a long way out. This will be only his second cross-water away day and, while a body of evidence of one race is hardly bombproof, it is a niggle.

If MP should falter, who may benefit? Most obvious would be Banbridge, winner of the Martin Pipe a year ago and second to El Fabiolo over an inadequate trip most recently. He was beaten ten lengths there, and 18 lengths the time before by Mighty Potter, so one might reasonably argue that the jolly will have to notably under-perform in order for that form to get spun around. It is also the case that Banbridge seems to prefer better ground, his two wins on soft coming in run of the mill novice hurdles where he probably outclassed his rivals.

A veteran at nine, in the context of a novice chase, is Appreciate It, winner of the 2021 Ballymore, second in the 2020 Champion Bumper, and only 10/3 in last year's Champion Hurdle, where he ran well for a long time before lack of race fitness told. There are no such fitness concerns this time after three seasonal outings, two of them wins, but he was comprehensively outpointed by Blue Lord last time and now steps up half a mile in trip. As a son of Jeremy it's not a foregone conclusion he'll stay, especially on rain softened ground; but he travels like he probably will (he did win a bumper over this trip very early in his career, and was a point to point winner before that, for whatever that form is worth now).

The first UK runner in the lists is Balco Coastal, a close up second to Gerri Colombe in the G1 Scilly Isles last time. He'd previously won a decent novices' handicap chase on soft ground lending credence to his claim to underfoot apathy, but his overall level seems a little below the Irish trio.

Stage Star has been a super horse for his myriad enthusiastic owners, and comes here having won seven of his 12 starts, including the G1 Challow Hurdle in 2021. He then pulled up in Grade 1's at both Cheltenham and Aintree, but has got back in the groove this term over a fence. To wit, he's notched three times from four starts - second on the other occasion, in Grade 2 company - and loves it soft. Conditions will be ideal but I'm not convinced he's up to this exacting level.

James du Berlais a hard horse to peg. He was second in Grade 1's at Auteuil and Punchestown over hurdles, and bolted up from the front in a beginners' chase on soft ground. But, in Mighty Potter's G1 last time, he was stuffed. It's possible he'll appreciate the softer ground but he'll certainly need to to reverse those positions.

Turners Novices' Chase Pace Map

This has pace, mainly from Stage Star, Appreciate It and Christopher Wood, but also Banbridge can go forward; so it'll be a true test. Mighty Potter is expected to be handy without getting involved in the battle for the lead.

Turners Novices' Chase Selection

There is every chance Mighty Potter just wins but he's an unexciting price after flopping so badly twelve months back. As such, it might be worth chancing the old man of the party, Appreciate It, in what could be a fair slog if it doesn't stop raining. I feel Banbridge might want better ground, and the rest of the Irish - and all of the British - don't look good enough.

Suggestion: Back Appreciate It at 4/1.

2.10 Pertemps Final (Grade 3 handicap, 3m)

Another absolute melee. Coming into last season, the Irish had won the previous six renewals, and held most of the aces for a seventh. But it didn't play out that way. In fact, not only was Hughie Morrison's Third Wind first past the post, but home team runners filled out the podium and five of the first six places. Hmm...

Some of that will be down to happenstance and some at the hand of the BHA's handicapping team, who have recalibrated the relationship between UK and Irish ratings. Whatever, it's an interesting additional consideration to lob into the pot.

My shortlist is Thanksforthehelp, The Bosses Oscar, Level Neverending and Walking On Air. This quintet is trained and owned by 'the right people', has the right unexposed profile, and looks sure to handle conditions.

The Bosses Oscar was second in this off a nine pound higher mark two years ago. He pulled up in it last year but that was after a season chasing where he mainly pulled up. Back to hurdling this term he's been on the premises throughout, and a fast run big field is no problem to him. He's trained by Gordon Elliott, triple Pertemps winner between 2018 and 2020.

He also saddles Level Neverending for the same owners, Bective Stud. This one is far less exposed, having made his handicap debut in the Warwick qualifier, staying on into a qualifying position and never nearer. He's a big price dark horse for all that he might not be good enough against this level of opposition.

Walking On Air runs for Nicky Henderson and Mrs Michael Tabor - Doreen, in fact. He's another lightly raced sort who opened his handicap account in the Exeter qualifier. All form so far has been on a sound surface, which is a concern unless the track dries out pronto.

David Pipe is a Pertemps winner - twice in fact, with the same wonderful stick, Buena Vista. His old man won the race further back and 'Dave' has a good chance with Thanksforthehelp, facile winner of the Chepstow qualifier last time. The notion that last day winners 'have shown their hand' doesn't really fit with the fact that last day winners have taken ten Pertemps Finals since 1997, from 108 qualifiers, for a +11 SP profit. They've also hit the frame at a 26% clip. The flip side is that the last to achieve a winning double was Presenting Percy in 2017.

Lots of others to consider, naturally.

Pertemps Final Pace Map

Potentially furiously run, it will certainly be strongly run. That might suit the strong travellers further back, who can hold a position through the early heat and play their hand late.

Pertemps Final Selection

This is another race where extra places give us extra chances. In that spirit, I want The Bosses Oscar, Level Neverending and Thanksforthehelp on my ticket - and I don't mind splitting (unevenly) between three picks at all. If you only want to back one, take your choice from that trio or any of the other horses in the field!

Suggestion: Make sure you get all the extra places you can, and consider one or more of the three above.

2.50 Ryanair Chase (Grade 1, 2m 4 1/2f)

The much maligned Ryanair is one of my favourite races of the week. I get the argument that it dilutes the Champion Chase and Gold Cup, but the corollary is that it produces a high class heat all of its own for those not fast enough for the former and without sufficient stamina for the latter: it is truly an intermediate Championship race.

Take Allaho in the past two years, for example; he's blitzed his rivals from the front and, in so doing, has recorded a pair of the best performances at those respective Festivals. Prior to that, Frodon and Bryony provided one of the stories of the week in 2019, and the likes of Un De Sceaux, Vautour, Cue Card, Imperial Commander, and Albertas Run give the roll of honour a robust look. So, no, not for me that the Ryanair is a misstep: it's a cracking race and, generally, a very good betting race.

Perhaps not this season, however, on the latter point at least. Because, in the absence of Allaho, we have Shishkin. The winner of a Supreme and an Arkle pulled up in last year's Champion Chase and flunked behind Edwardstone in this season's Tingle Creek: missing, presumed gone at it. Until, that is, a wind op and a step up in trip conspired to elicit a performance as good as he's ever produced in the Ascot Chase over this trip.

That level of form, and plenty of other from prior to last season's Fez flop, puts him a mile - or maybe half a stone in ratings terms - clear of his field here. But before going all in, consider that he was similarly well-fancied off a similarly rated prep a year ago. That big effort left its mark, albeit that the manner of the result was visually a lot more punishing, Shishkin going toe to toe with Energumene in a heavyweight scrap for our time.

So who, if anyone, can lower Shishkin's black and yellow checkerboard colours? With the news that Allaho would miss the party, Willie was never going to be troubled in shuffling his pack to find a sub. He's come up with Blue Lord, who looked world-beating at Christmas before failing to live with barn mate Gentleman De Mee at the Dublin Racing Festival last month. Prior to that, Blue Lord had done well to hold off former King George winner Tornado Flyer on his seasonal bow over the Ryanair trip. He's high class, but I'm just not sure what his trip is - two and a quarter miles, perhaps?

Janidil got closest to Allaho last year, having been held up away from the tearaways on the front. That turned out to be a good tactic as, although he got nowhere near 'the speed of the speed' Allaho, he plugged on past; but it's reasonable to argue he may not even have been second had Conflated not fallen two out. Janidil had two subsequent spring spins, both non-completions, and has had just one go this season. That was in the Grade 2 Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park, where he held off Haut En Couleurs in a small but fairly select field.

This distance may be the making of Fury Road, who has struggled to see out three miles at the top table on a number of occasions. He won a Grade 2 over 2m4f in early November last year before taking bronze in a brace of Leopardstown three mile G1's; further back, he was just outstayed by Monkfish in the 2020 Albert Bartlett.

What to make of Envoi Allen? Winner of the 2019 Champion Bumper and the 2020 Ballymore, he's actually won a couple of Grade 1's since including as recently as this season. He's six from eight at around this distance, hurdles and fences, and, if you can overlook a very poor showing in the King George, he's a place player.

I don't give the rest much of a chance.

Ryanair Chase Pace Map

Steady away here, most likely; Chacun Poir Soi, fabulous old boy, may be near the front but won't be tearing off. Should be a good even tempo.

Ryanair Chase Selection

This is Shishkin's race to lose. He looked very, very good in the Ascot Chase last time and a run with seven pounds of that is probably good enough. I don't really like the 'without' market so that's it - Shishkin.

Suggestion: Back 8/11 Shishkin to generate some eights for any spare elevens you have* - or just watch a champ in action.

*this does not constitute robust financial advice. Caveat emptor.

3.30 Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)

The second highlight of day three is the Stayers' Hurdle, run over three miles. Bizarrely, it is not always the test of stamina the name suggests: in the last two seasons, Danny Mullins has ridden his rivals into a trance aboard Flooring Porter with, last season, his stop-start tempo on the front end before gearing up in the run to two out. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me thrice?

Although FP's form figures look a little less appealing this season, he's been running to a similar level of form and he seems to handle most ground. Trainer Gavin Cromwell will have again peaked him for this gig, but very few horses manage to win three Stayers' Hurdles (or indeed three of any Festival Championship race). That said, there isn't a bundle of obvious pace alternates in the field.

We haven't seen a lot of the seven-year-old Charles Byrnes-trained Blazing Khal, but what we have seen has typically been other horses following him home. Indeed, he's had just four races since 2020, three of them the following year and all of them victories. That two were achieved around Cheltenham is a boon to his prospects, as is his proven speed for shorter trips as well as three-mile winning form. This will be a first step up to Grade 1 company but, after three successive G2 scores, he's ready. Byrnes tends to know what he has and so the layoff - sole spin since 2021 was last month - isn't unduly concerning, though there is scope for the dreaded 'bounce' with that profile. There is a small niggle about his rider, the trainer's son, who will be unable to claim his allowance here.

Ex-French-trained Teahupoo was in the care of Gabriel Leenders prior to his rehoming at Gordon Elliott's Cullentra House yard, and his former conditioner has Gold Tweet in this year's line up. Let's deal with Teahupoo first. He's a typically early blooming French-bred who has won seven of his nine Irish starts, including this season's Hatton's Grace Hurdle, Grade 1. He was soundly beaten last term in both the Champion Hurdle and the Punchestown equivalent, but has resumed winning ways over further either side of the new year. Most of his good form is on soft or heavy ground so he won't mind any rain, and if it turns into a slog that ought to suit him.

Gold Tweet is another for whom wet ground holds no terrors: it was soft when he won the Cleeve, and very soft when he scored at Fontainebleu in November. But defeating Dashel Drasher and Paisley Park, both fantastic sticks but surely on the decline now, probably leaves him with plenty to find in this deeper field. Gold Tweet has never won above G3 in France (and that in a chase race).

Another I'm struggling to quantify is Home By The Lee. Joseph O'Brien trains this eight-year-old whose timber-topping form prior to this season was 218U113P100P226R; he's managed to put back-to-back wins together, in a Grade 2 and then a three mile Grade 1, so what gives? A charitable perspective of his Stayers' run last year would show that he stayed on having been outpaced mid-race; his case hangs on it being a thorough stamina test, which is by no means a given. In any event, he's short enough in a race of if's and but's.

Willie sends Klassical Dream and he might just be the over-priced one. Sure, he's quirky, and he probably needs to be delivered on the line because he travels a lot better than he finds when let down; but he's a six-time (SIX!) Grade 1 winner including three of his last four Grade 1's - so no back number - and comes here off the back of a narrow defeat by Teahupoo over an inadequate two and a half mile trip.

Of the rest, Ashdale Bob might be involved in making the pace - he's led or been prominent in his last three, and clung tough for 3rd of 23 in last year's Coral Cup - and is admirably consistent. His form in the last three seasons reads 11F912U373232342: almost always thereabouts when completing. I really hope he puts it up to Flooring Porter (though, of course, there will be others who wish the opposite!).

It's tough to make much of case for the stars of yesteryear like Paisley Park and Dashel Drasher.

Stayers' Hurdle Pace Map

Surely Flooring Porter doesn't get an easy lead for a third year running? Surely?! Maybe he does, though both Ashdale Bob and Dashel Drasher can go from the front, too. The French runner, Henri Le Farceur, led last time but is more typically waited with.

Stayers' Hurdle Selection

Very difficult indeed. I'm taking a chance on Klassical Dream, win only, in the hope that they go fast and he can cruise into contention. He's as likely to flop as to win so not an each way play, but hoping he'll give a run for the money.

Suggestion: Back Klassical Dream win only at 10/1.

4.10 Festival Plate (Grade 3 handicap, 2m 4 1/2f)

Another borderline impossible handicap, this time a chase, and the first of two such races on the day. This is the least trends'y race of the week, with the Irish faring well enough, so too the Brits; young horses and old, exposed and unexposed, all getting on the roll of honour. It's a race that Paul Nicholls and Willie Mullins have never won, Gordon Elliott has only won once and Nicky Henderson hasn't won since 2006! It's also a race where four of the last five winners were priced 5/1 or shorter, which is disappointing unless you fancy So Scottish.

That horse, in the care of Emmet Mullins, Plate winning trainer two years ago, looks an obvious contender for all that he's likely to face deeper ground and has been off longer than most winners; though Ballynagour in 2014 returned after the exact same 117 day layoff to win.

Il Ridoto was a soft ground winner over course and distance last time and, up eight pounds, still looks viable for Nicholls. He might again bid to make all. And a really interesting one if he stays is Frero Banbou. Trained by Venetia Williams, three-time Plate winner, this lad was desperately outpaced in last year's Grand Annual over two miles before making up ground on a fading field into eventual third. He's in the right hands and should be able to lie up with them more easily over this longer range. Venetia also runs Gemirande, a trip specialist who has progressed by more than a stone this season and, not out of the first two in his last six starts, may still be improving.

Millions of others with chances.

Festival Plate Pace Map

There's not a massive amount of early go, though Gemirande and Coole Cody will be there. So, too, perhaps Shakem Up'Arry and Embittered. Should be a fair chance for most.

Festival Plate Selection

The simple answer is So Scottish, and he might be a win saver. But, with as many bonus places as I can get, I'll be splitting my stake between the Brits Il Ridoto, Frero Banbou and Gemirande, and hoping for the best.

Suggestion: Take a couple of your choosing, and save on So Scottish.

4.50 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2, 2m 1f)

We all have a least favourite Festival race, and this one is mine. I'm generally accepting of the new races but definitely struggle with the mares' novices' hurdle. Anyway, that's my problem, and it will have a winner to find, so let's get on to that.

With seven renewals so far, Willie won the first five - sigh/wow! - before Henry de B took over with a 1-2 in 2021, where there was an Irish 1-2-3-4, none of them Willie. Then, last year, up rocked Love Envoi, trained by a Brit, Harry Fry, with another Brit in second, Willie third.

And it's a UK mare, Luccia, who is short at the top of the betting lists this time around. She's been an easy winner of all four starts to date, two bumpers and two novices, but hasn't jumped on softer than good ground yet. She could well be the winner; the problem is that this is one of those races where there are a number of unexposed types whose form lines are untested against each other.

Henry de Bromhead has options in a race named after his late son - poor family 🙁 - and it will be unbearably poignant if one of his can win. Chief among them might be Magical Zoe, herself unbeaten in three. She's won on soft in Grade 3 company and, while not as visually impressive as Luccia, she's expected to appreciate any stiffer test of stamina as a result of a fast pace. She was 18/1 that last day and beat the first two in the market into second and third: it didn't look fluky.

A really interesting contender, not to be confused with the de Bromhead runner, is Princess Zoe. You might know her from such as her Group 1 Prix du Cadran score or multiple Galway triumphs. She scraped home in a dead heat on hurdling debut over 2m4f, and it might be that a truly run two miles or so with a bit of cut is optimal. Her jumping lacked a little polish on that timber-topping bow, as it was entitled to do, and, if well schooled since, she's unquestionably high class.

Four of Willie's five Dawn Run winners were five-year-olds, which might just be coincidence; but more Dawn Runners tend to be six or older. Mullins' 5yo entry is Lot Of Joy, who has a Lot To Do on the ratings; but she looks a typical improver, having run up in her first two spins in huge fields before putting a dozen lengths between herself and the nearest of 14 rivals last time. She was 1/7 that day so did nothing unexpected, but that brings her to Cheltenham on an improvement arc and less exposed than many others.

You Wear It Well was second to Hermes Allen in the Grade 1 Challow, a race working out very well. I don't know how Hermes has done at time of writing, but a big performance from him in the Ballymore would clearly be a hint towards this mare's chance. She's fine on all ground and easily won a Grade 2 last time. Both the Challow and that G2 were over further, however, so the drop back in trip is not certain to suit.

Two more to mention, from a cast of 21, are Poetic Music and Halka Du Tabert. Poetic Music was a very good bumper filly, running sixth in Facile Vega's Champion Bumper as a four-year-old. She's taken well to hurdling, winning twice, though was no match for Luccia when they met three back. She wants a battle and she wants a strong pace, and she'll get both of those here: outside squeak.

Halka Du Tabert was well touted and showed the rumours to be on point when slamming Eabha Grace, a Grade 3 winner at the weekend, in a big field maiden. She was outpaced in a small field G3 last time, and this is much more her setup: she could be a contender.

Mares' Novices' Hurdle Pace Map

Hard to know how this will go with so many inexperienced mares. On what we've seen, Fox Girl and Halka du Tabert will be forwardly placed from the outset, while Luccia is more likely to track those trailblazers.

Mares' Novices' Hurdle Selection

Lots who will turn out better than they've had a chance to show so far, and Luccia - whilst an obvious win chance - is a measly price. Against her, I'll chance a couple each way: Magical Zoe and Halka Du Tabert. Both are likely to relish a strong pace and possess the battling qualities required for a scrum amongst 20+ inexperienced mares.

Suggestion: Back either or both of Magical Zoe and Halka du Tabert, each way a pleasure.

5.30 Kim Muir Challenge Cup Chase (Class 2 Handicap, 3m2f)

The second handicap chase of the day, this one over three and a quarter miles and the exclusive domain of amateur riders. However, a quick squint at the winning jocks in recent years demonstrates the level of professionalism in the amateur ranks: just two of the last nine were claiming, and both have now gone professional. Jamie Codd has won the Kim Muir four times since 2009.

In betting terms, there were two 40/1 winners in the past eight years, both British-trained, and the other six were all single figure returns, four of them trained in Ireland.

Favourite this year is Stumptown, on the hat-trick and trained by Gavin Cromwell. He popped up at Sandown last time, eking out seven lengths over the second that day and earning enough of a ratings bump to book his Kim Muir ticket. Although he won a maiden hurdle on soft, his recent best has been achieved on a sounder surface; that doesn't mean he won't handle wetter as well as drier, just that he might not - and he's awful short if you're not sure.

Mr Incredible bids, I think, to be Willie Mullins' first handicap chase winner at the Festival. I believe he's 0 from 37 though he's had some placed. That's clearly not fuelling optimism and the horse - claimed by his rider to be a nutjob - has form figures that lurch from a Scrabble rack to a clutch of podium positions. Which Mr Incredible will show up today?

A horse we were interested in buying a couple of years back is Farinet, and he's been a fine servant for connections. He's trained by the first lady of Cheltenham Festival handicap chases, Venetia Williams, and wasn't beaten too far over course and distance on New Year's Day.

Beauport arrives here rather than the Ultima, and that may be the proverbial tip in itself. Trainer by the Twister, Nigel Twiston-Davies, he loves soft ground and a trip.

At the other end of the handicap, Ben Pauling - winning trainer of the Grand Annual last year - saddles a couple, the more interesting of which is probably Anightinlambourn. He's won three of his last four and was second on the other occasion; two of those runs were here over this sort of trip, but on quicker ground. If it dries out he becomes very interesting, I think.

And I've almost certainly not mentioned the winner!

Kim Muir Pace Map

It's Venetia to the fore and aft, everyone else in between. Farinet likely goes to the front while Chambard will be played late. Lots of other occasional pace pressers means this will be a stern examination of jumping over an exacting distance.

Kim Muir Selection

Tricky. Very tricky. I'm going to try Beauport and Anightinlambourn (good to soft or quicker only) against the field.

Suggestion: Back a couple against the field, with lots of extra places. Maybe the same two as me, and maybe not!

It's a very tough day is Thursday at the Festival, so well done if you come out in front. If you don't, there's always Gold Cup day...

Good luck!

Matt

Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips

13 March 2023/in Cheltenham Festival Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips

Day two, Wednesday, and a similar combination of novice races, handicaps and a Championship race, this time the Queen Mother Champion Chase. As ever, it's a one-thirty start for the...

1.30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m5f)

They say the Ballymore/Neptune/Baring Bingham is more of a speed test than the Supreme and, if very recent history is anything to go by "they" are right. The winners' finishing speeds in the Supreme in the past two years - the only two for which CourseTrack sectionals are available on the RTV website - were 100% each time, with the runners up coming home in around 94% each time. Meanwhile, in the Ballymore, the winners' closing sectionals were 102.2% and 106% while the runners up recorded 101.4% and 103.8%. What does it all mean? Well, simply that we might be looking for a horse able to travel and quicken rather than one who gallops relentlessly.

To the form, and the only place to start is with the talking horse's talking horse, Impaire Et Passe. Reputedly the latest Pegasus on the Willie Mullins production line, he's unbeaten in a Nancy bumper before transferring to Closutton (for €155,000) and winning a brace of novice hurdles, the second of which was the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer. That race has been a stepping stone in the past for the same trainer's Mikael d'Haguenet, Vautour, Douvan and Min, amongst others. The first of those named won the Ballymore next time, while the other three all went Supreme (two of them winning, Min running second to Altior). So it is arguably the trusted prep for Mullins' top novice hurdlers, although the Grade 1 at the DRF is a more obvious candidate in that regard.

A winner of his maiden hurdle by 18 lengths, in a field of 24, that form looks very ordinary: none of the runners behind that day have won since, and they've collectively amassed 42 starts! Still, that's hardly Impaire Et Passe's fault as he fulfilled his end of the bargain by going so far clear. In that Moscow Flyer, run this year on heavy ground, he jumped well in the main though was a little clumsy at the last. The key thing with his chance, given that on form he has a bit to find, is the stable confidence. Mullins has a raft of talented novice hurdlers and yet this is the one seemingly most talked up: he must be good. But he is inexperienced and, as I say, does not yet have the best form.

Mullins also saddles Gaelic Warrior, second in last year's Fred Boodles and winner of all three of his starts this term, including in a valuable handicap hurdle, shouldering top weight, at the DRF. That form has already had some lustre added to it and, where IEP is a tad shy on experience, GW brings much more as a second season novice.

Splitting the Willie pair in the betting is the Paul Nicholls-trained Hermes Allen. Triumphant in all three of his races so far, he must have surprised a few at Ditcheat because he started out in a Stratford maiden hurdle before claiming the Grade 2 Hyde Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham and the Grade 1 Challow at Newbury. That Challow form has worked out superbly well, with the 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th and two of the pulled up also-rans winning since; not only winning, but three of them scoring in Pattern company. Hermes Allen is already a heck of a hurdler, but he could be a monster over fences next season.

The third string to Mullins' extremely stringy bow is Champ Kiely, winner of the Grade 1 Lawlor's Of Naas Novices' Hurdle last time. There he beat Irish Point, who won a Grade 3 at Naas on Sunday; the overall level of that form looks below others in the field, however. That said, the Champ handles any ground and has won four of his five career starts to date.

Barry Connell, boutique trainer of his own horses, has not just Marine Nationale in the Supreme but also Good Land in this. He's winner of his three completed starts this term, having unseated at the first in his hurdling debut. He was last seen winning the Grade 1 Nathaniel Lacy over 2m6f at the DRF, and that is normally top form as illustrated in this article by Jon Shenton. [For info, the best novice hurdle run annually in Britain or Ireland tends to be the one at DRF won this year by Il Etait Temps].

Ho My Lord is a further Willie wunner, and is unbeaten in completed starts, a French bumper and an Irish maiden hurdle either side of a tumble at Leopardstown at Christmas. He completely unexposed, and as such wouldn't be a total shock winner; but his known level of form is stones below that in the book for some of his rivals.

I liked American Mike for the Supreme after his Champion Bumper second last year, but he seems to have completely lost his way since. It's not unheard of for horses to rediscover their best form at the Festival, but it is usually slightly more planned by connections - who were aiming at a handicap until running out of time to get the requisite fourth run under their belts. Mike looks somewhat homeless in terms of race fit this year; hoping he'll be back next season over a fence.

Ballymore Pace Map

Plenty of early dash, with Hermes Allen and American Mike, along with probably one or more of the Mullins lesser lights. Might be a little quicker than normal in the early stages.

Ballymore Novices' Hurdle Selection

I have come round to the hype surrounding Impaire Et Passe, a horse who will have plenty of peers against which to compare his level at home. His stablemate Gaelic Warrior has the best public level of ability but the vibes are all for IeP. Still, the Warrior will likely be hard to keep out of the three and represents a fairly solid each way tickle.

Suggestion: Probably a race to bet Impaire Et Passe, even at relatively skinny odds. 5/1 Gaelic Warrior is a solid-looking each way alternative.

2.10 Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1, 3m)

Widely recalled as the RSA Chase, this is in fact the Broadway Novices' Chase, currently sponsored by Brown Advisory, an independent investment management firm apparently. No matter: it always has been and presumably always will be a three mile novice chase and an early opportunity for chasers to advertise future Gold Cup credentials: in that context, it's typically a very good race. The last couple of winners, L'Homme Presse and Monkfish, have absented for the following year's Gold Cup; but going back a decade, Bobs Worth and Lord Windermere were back to back Broadway/Gold Cup doublers.

This year, the most fancied runner is Gerri Colombe, and not without good cause. He's already a dual Grade 1 winner, in the Faugheen at Limerick at Christmas and in the Scilly Isles at Sandown last month; and, though both of those races were over half a mile shorter than he'll face here, he's been going on to assert at the finish each time. Still, he's not guaranteed to stay in a top class test such as this. One asset that will help is his jumping, which was outstanding at Sandown: long or short, he was always clever and didn't tickle a twig at any of the 17 fences. Gerri is a very worthy favourite.

One thing the jolly has not yet done is race around Cheltenham; the same cannot be said of The Real Whacker. Patrick Neville's seven-year-old is unbeaten in two chases at the track, most recently when beating Monmiral three lengths in the Grade 2 Dipper. He, too, has been very good at his obstacles to date and may have more to give: perhaps he'll need to as a line through Monmiral gives him a bit to find with GC - though it's fair to say the collateral horse wouldn't be a reliable yardstick even if reliable yardsticks were a reliable yardstick, if you see what I mean. In any case, his defeat of Thunder Rock (reopposes) was much more in line with Gerri C's margin over the same horse, so if you're into collateral you can choose your poison.

Philip Hobbs has recently announced a joint licence plan whereby long-time assistant Johnson White will share the honour; but before that Thyme Hill will test his mettle for the current sole licensee here. A couple of years the senior of Gerri and the Whacker, Thyme Hill has been a top class staying hurdler, running second in last year's Stayers' Hurdle as well as winning the G1 Liverpool Hurdle, the G1 Challow as a novice, and running third in the 2019 Champion Bumper here. He was also fourth in the Albert Bartlett of 2020, giving him Festival form of 342 in Grade 1's.

Although it feels like this feller has been around forever he only spent three seasons hurdling; and the manner of his Feltham/Kauto Star win at Kempton on Boxing Day - by 15 lengths from McFabulous - was striking. The form however has plenty of question marks with the second pulling up as odds on favourite next time; and the other two runners at Kempton failing to complete. Thyme Hill came from off a sizzling pace that day to barrel away from a couple of tired rivals, an approach that perhaps again gives him a chance to pick up pieces here.

Remember Sir Gerhard? Sporting the union flag colours of Cheveley Park but raced in Ireland for better prize money (sigh), he cost four hundred grand at the end of the 2019. That looked a fairly chunky price tag but he's since recouped more than half of it, which is more than most racehorses achieve! A win here would add another hundred bags to the total and offer the prospect of him getting his nose in front financially (obviously, ignoring training and transport costs - who bothers with those?!).

More materially, what of his form chance? Well, he infamously 'stole' the 2021 Champion Bumper from Kilcruit (pocket talk) and went on to win last year's Ballymore Novices' Hurdle at the Festival. This season he's been sighted just once, when bagging a beginners' chase by 38 lengths from the occasionally-very-good-but-not-on-this-particular-occasion Largy Debut. That was in spite of a horlicks of an error, which would be a concern here in terms of chasing experience. Yes, he won a point to point back yon but this wouldn't be the gig to come in underdone. Still, he's plenty of class and ability, so is not easily discounted.

The aforementioned Thunder Rock has been beaten by both Gerri Colombe and The Real Whacker so what chance has he here? Both of those defeats were at around two and a half miles, and the run behind the Whacker was at Cheltenham (2m5f, soft) where the closing comment was, "stayed on final 110 yards". That doesn't really tell the full story: Thunder Rock was last of five three furlongs out and closed all the way to the line. Meanwhile, The Real Whacker - who'd led them a merry dance from flag fall - was getting to the end of his soap-on-a-rope. This extra three furlongs is what brings Olly Murphy's charge into the picture, and he's a price against the top of the market.

The mare Galia Des Liteaux seems to be very well regarded by the Skelton yard, and has looked very good a couple of times this term. Her best run was her most recent, when surging 13 lengths clear of her field in a Grade 2 three mile novice chase at Warwick. The going was heavy that day, as it was when she won a Listed novice chase at Bangor earlier in the season, and that appears to be the key to her: the wetter the better. She was pulled up in the Kauto Star/Feltham when failing to get into a rhythm; that can happen to a horse without necessarily being the death knell to its Festival chance - see for example Bobs Worth.

By contrast, Adamantly Chosen has plenty of good ground form. In his latest pair of races, he's been second in two and a half mile Grade 1's to Mighty Potter and Gerri Colombe - not beaten comprehensively either time, and staying on both times - which puts him in the picture here. He's been supplemented for this, another indication that his chance is credible.

RSA Chase Pace Map

Likely just an even gallop here, with Harry Skelton the prime contender to take them along on Galia Des Liteaux. The Real Whacker has gone forward the last twice, however, so there's a chance of some early contention.

RSA Chase Selection

A race where Gerri Colombe is an obvious and legitimate favourite but a bit on the skinny side pricewise. Of his rivals, I quite like the claims of Sir Gerhard, Galia Des Liteaux (soft ground only), Thunder Rock and Adamantly Chosen (good to soft or quicker), and I think it's an each way sort of a race - though we may end up playing for the place part behind Gerri.

Suggestion: Consider 15/2 Galia Des Liteaux (soft or heavy) or 18/1 Adamantly Chosen good to soft or quicker) each way or without the favourite.

2.50 Coral Cup (Handicap, Grade 3, 2m5f)

A big field handicap hurdle, inscrutable in the extreme to these peepers. A bit of 'black box' shortlisting leaves me with HMS Seahorse, Beacon Edge, Captain Conby, and Bold Endeavour.

HMS Seahorse runs for Paul Nolan, the trainer of Mrs Milner, last year's Pertemps Final winner. He seemed to improve a good bit when ~~needing a few extra pounds to get in here~~ stepping up in trip last time; and he won in the style of a horse with a good bit more up his sleeve.

The Noel Meade-trained Beacon Edge was third Stayers' Hurdle favourite Blazing Khal in the G2 Boyne Hurdle last time, and was a G2 winner at this trip a couple of years ago. He's handily weighted for this handily-cap debut.

Eddie Sheehy is the sort of 'no name' trainer whose runner slips a tad under the radar in races like these; and who can get the job done a la Peter Fahey and Paul Hennessey two years ago. Captain Conby is tough and consistent, and was good enough to still be in the mix in the G1 Mersey Novices' Hurdle when coming down at the second last a year ago. He seems to handle any ground, too.

Best of the home team might be the Nicky Henderson-trained Bold Endeavour, who reverts to hurdles after running second (of three) in the G2 Reynoldstown last time. He looks on a very fair mark so, although the last Festival handicap hurdle winner to have been chasing on its most recent start was Andytown in 2009, that horse was trained by Hendo - and returned a similarly fat price to this one's likely SP. The King of Seven Barrows has attempted the feat eleven times since, faring no better than 7th (in 2021, Mill Green, 40/1) - that obviously tempers enthusiasm.

Coral Cup Pace Map

Probably not crazy fast early despite the huge field, with Bold Endeavour a possible designated driver. Could be a bit of elbows out action turning into the straight with doubtless a dozen and more still holding chances.

Coral Cup Selection

Skybet are *eight* places on this race and that feels the way to go, as long as their win price is competitive with best available. I'll be perming 12/1 Captain Conby, 10/1 HMS Seahorse and 12/1 Beacon Edge - another three very possible place prospects and three darts at hitting the win jackpot.

Coral Cup Suggestion: Split your stake three or four ways - and bet each way with as many extra places as you can find.

3.30 Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1, 2m)

The Champion Chase is the championship speed test for high class steeplechasers. Remarkably, when Energumene claimed the spoils a year ago, it was Willie Mullins' first Champion Chase success at the 15 time of asking. The other 14 included Un De Sceaux (2nd at 4/6), Douvan (7th at 2/9), and Chacun Pour Soi (3rd at 8/13), so it will have been good for him to get that monkey off his back. This year, Mullins saddles only one: Energumene, the reigning champ.

Energumene comes here off a less than convincing prep in the G1 Clarence House in late January (run here rather than its usual Ascot home). There, he was still in the mix before a shocker at the last curtailed his claim. Prior to odds on disappointment there he'd won ten from eleven, the only blemish being a narrow defeat in 'that' race with Shishkin at Ascot. It is reasonable to assume he was not quite at concert pitch in January and further reasonable to say that he will be this time, in which case he may be the one they all have to beat.

Gentleman De Mee - who misses the race with an infection - previously had an Aintree G1 verdict over Edwardstone, while that one won convincingly in last season's Arkle at Cheltenham. And Edwardstone was imperious in the Tingle Creek earlier in the season, though he himself has since been turned over by Editeur Du Gite.

The management summary is that any of a number of these could conceivably win the Champion Chase, a race that is likely to be further confuddled by a pace profile featuring a broad cast of prospective forward-goers. All of this makes for a fascinating and thrilling spectacle but a nightmare of a punting puzzle.

Further down the lists are very-good-on-their-day types like two mile specialist Funambule de Sivola (chase form of 1121121126451 at or around two miles), whose season took a marked turn for the better with a bold front-running display in the Game Spirit; Greaneteen, who was closest to Edwardstone at Sandown but a bit floppy behind Funambule at Newbury; and Nube Negra who all but won the 2021 Champion Chase but has been in and out since.

And then there's Captain Guinness, representing three-time Champion Chase-winning trainer, Henry de Bromhead, who of course suffered the ultimate distress not long ago: what a phenomenal story it would be if the Captain could get home in front. Heart-warming, but unlikely.

Champion Chase Pace Map

Two or three who can go forward but, with none of them needing to do so, it's not clear how this might play out. Editeur Du Gite and Energumene will fancy their win chances to may rein back slightly off Funambule de Sivola, whose prospects are more wild card. Still, I'd expect it to be at least truly run.

Champion Chase Selection

This might just be a straight shoot out between Edwardstone and Energumene, and it might not. As unhelpful as that sounds, I'm not really sure where to go with it. If Energumene tracks the pace rather than contests it, he gets first run on Edwardstone who will be played later. In that scenario, he might win; or he might set it up for the last challenger, probably Edwardstone.

Editeur Du Gite's chance may be compromised by a duel with Funambule de Sivola, another fast horse early, and another classy contender (though not quite in the Eddie/Energ quality category).

Incredibly, perhaps, this is a no bet race for me. It ought to be a cracking watch all the same.

4.10 Glenfarclas Chase (Cross Country, Class 2, 3m6f)

Another of the 'not for the purists' races, arguably; but I have to concede to very much enjoying the different spectacle of a big field of often familiar names jogging around quirky ever decreasing spiral before shaking loose onto the main course for the sprint to the line. In the olden days, this used to be the almost exclusive province of Enda Bolger but, since 2017, there's been a new sheriff in town. Gordon Elliott (and, in 2021, his proxy, Denise Foster) has won five of the last six renewals of the Glenfarclas Chase and saddled the second and third in the year he didn't win during that spell.

This season, he will be responsible for the first two in the betting, Delta Work and Galvin. Now ten, Delta Work was fifth in the 2020 Gold Cup and was the panto villain a year ago when beating everybody's darling, Tiger Roll, by less than a length. He followed that up with third in the Grand National and he's a worthy and obvious favourite. If there is a vulnerability in his profile it might be that he much prefers wet ground: it was heavy when he bested the Tiger but looks unlikely to be that deep this time.

His stablemate Galvin by contrast prefers top of the ground, though he was good enough to claim silver in the 2020 novices' handicap chase at the Festival on soft. A year later, having retained his novice status, he won the NH Chase; and, last year, he was fourth in the Gold Cup. That's very classy form against this field.

And there is another top tier entry this season in the form of Franco De Port, trained by Willie Mullins. He's run respectably in Grade 1 three mile chases the last twice, a level good enough to mix it with Elliott's duo, but he's never raced in public over cross country fences; that's a knock. He looks sure to stay, however, on the basis of his fine third in the Grand Steeplechase last May.

To be honest, I'm struggling to make a case for anything else. Back On The Lash won the cross country handicap in January here but he's 20-odd pounds wrong with Delta Work, and has fluffed his Festival lines in this exam last season (may have hated the ground, in fairness) - any chance he might have is ground dependant. Snow Leopardess would be a very popular winner, and she did have a sighter over the track in January and arrives on the back of a very good run in the Grand National Trial handicap chase last month. She was fourth in Galvin's National Hunt Chase of 2021, handles genuine soft ground and could be a bit of each way value if/when the bookies offer five places.

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Pace Map

This will be run at its usual sedate pace for the first three miles or so, with Lieutenant Rocco and Back On The Lash the most plausible for name checks throughout. The gorgeous white mare Snow Leopardess will be easy to spot and may not be far from the front, while Galvin, Delta Work, and especially Franco De Port, will probably be further back during the first half of the race.

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Selection

It looks a straight shootout between the Elliott pair Delta Work and Galvin. On good ground, it's the reigning champion's to lose; soft or heavy would tilt the scales in favour of Galvin; while good to soft would render it pretty much a coin toss between the pair. I don't see anything else representing much value, nor am I mad about punting the short ones at the top at their current prices. I would be tempted by Galvin at bigger than 9/4 on soft ground though that may be asking too much from the layers. If you want an each way with extra places, that might be Snow Leopardess, who looks very likely to improve on her first gallop round this unique circuit.

Suggestion: Back Galvin at 5/2+ if the ground is soft; consider 25/1 Snow Leopardess each way with bonus places, or in any 'without the front two' markets.

4.50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3, 2m)

Impossible. For me, at least. I've backed Coeur Sublime after his 'not quite off for the lot' fourth in a Grade 1 two back and his 'still not quite off' second in a Grade 3 last time out. It's possible he has too much weight or is not good enough - of course it, perfectly possible - but I think this has been the plan all season. He's been second in a Triumph Hurdle and was only 12/1 for a Champion Hurdle so he's classy all right.

Aside from Coeur, the market is a little over-enamoured with the Irish challenge given that the raiders have won just twice since 2014, though they did have the 1-2-3 in 2020 and the second horse home in the two runnings since. Andy Dufresne was one of those silver medallists, last year, and he has been laid out for this since. He'll need to have been because his recent track efforts have been lamentable. On his full body of work, however, he has a clear chance even off top weight (and the same mark as twelve months ago).

I feel as though Joe Tizzard may go close in a handicap this week and he has Elixir De Nutz in this one. Easy winner of a Class 2 handicap a couple of spins back, he was no match for Champion Chase-bound Funambule de Sivola last time, though of course he'd got a qualifying mark by then. Elixir runs in the same Terry Warner colours as former winner (and third placed on another occasion) Oiseau De Nuit, who was trained by Joe's dad, Colin. He's a Grade 2 winner at the track over hurdles, but wouldn't want too much rain.

Grand Annual Pace Map

Fast and furious always. Last year's winner, Global Citizen, and my fancy, Elixir De Nutz, need to be careful not to compromise each other's chance; especially with fancied runners like Final Orders and Dinoblue snapping at their hooves. Expect it to be frenetic.

Grand Annual Selection

I have backed Coeur Sublime and think he can run a nice race; and if it's not too wet - it might be - I'll have a small each way bet on Elixir De Nutz with as many places as I can find.

Suggestion: Your guess is better than mine. I'm guessing 11/1 Coeur Sublime and 16/1 Elixir de Nuit, and hoping to be lucky rather than good.

5.30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1, NH Flat, 2m 1/2f)

Some shrewd judges go to the bar when this is on; even shrewder judges make a lot of paddock notes for future reference. It's not really a betting race, with whispers and hearsay trading far more strongly than form lines - on the basis that most of the horses have very few of those, and even the ones they do possess were earned in vastly different circumstances.

To offer a hint into the opaqueness of the race, how many do you think Willie Mullins has entered this year? Five? Six? Nope. Ten. TEN!!

One who has shown top class bumper form is A Dream To Share and that's why he's favourite. At least you know he can run fast and good. Obviously, plenty of the others are capable of running faster and gooder than ADTS, we just haven't seen that yet.

Better Days Ahead is a Bective Stud/Gordon Elliott entry, and was a good winner last time from Chapeau de Soleil ("gwarrn the sun hat!") in a small field. Who knows that form amounts to?

Willie has won this with some of his unexposed bigger priced runners, such as Briar Hill (25/1, ridden by Ruby Walsh), Relegate (25/1), Champagne Fever (16/1) and Ferny Hollow (11/1). So the advice is to split a small stake between a few of the unexposed Mullins bombs, and hope to be lucky.

Backing all last day winning Willie Bumper runners at bigger than 10/1 in this would have yielded six winners and six more places from 42 starters, and an SP profit of 67 points! A point each way would have returned a surplus of 77.4 points, and that before you include the two fourths and three fifths that some bookies would have paid out on. You'll be taking a good few this time around but it's a less annoying way to play things than betting the buzz horse and watching it crawl home midfield.

Champion Bumper Pace Map

Pinch of salt stuff here, but for what it's worth, this is what we've discovered about the field so far in terms of run style.

Champion Bumper selection

No idea!

Suggestion: Bet the big priced Willies. Perhaps 16/1 Western Diego and 20/1 Westport Cove, e/w with five places in a couple of shops.

These seven skirmishes will deliver us to our half time cup of tea. We might need something stronger by then! Regardless, we've another 14 chances at redemption / further glory / giving it back* [*delete as applicable]

Good luck!

Matt

Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day One Preview, Tips

12 March 2023/in Cheltenham Festival Race Previews, Cheltenham Festival Tips, Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day One Preview, Tips

We're back! The 2023 Cheltenham Festival is here, and it's going to be a belter! 28 races, almost all of them head-scratching puzzles in terms wagering possibilities... and that's just as it should be! Let's get straight to it.

1.30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)

Half past one on the middle Tuesday in March is when the roar reverberates around the Cotswolds as racing regulars and occasionals alike release 361 days' worth of waiting for the first of seven races on the first of four days of fiercely contested battles.

The Supreme is sometimes won by a clear cut favourite - think Appreciate It or Douvan - but, more often than not, the waters are muddier and the multiple returned for finding the winner more appealing. This year falls into the latter bracket, and surely bookies all over the country will be desperately trying to 'get' Facile Vega. That is not, of course, because he can't or won't win; but rather that his price probably over-states his chance currently. Here's why...

Ignoring the fact that he was a terrific bumper horse - winning Grade 1's both here and at Punchestown - and the fact that he's Quevega's son, his actual hurdling form is not out of this world. A maiden win against a field that has managed a solitary handicap hurdle victor, off a perch of a relatively lowly 106, from 27 runs between them, was followed by a much more impressive Grade 1 score where he beat three subsequent winners. That legitimately put Facile Vega in short at the top of the market; but, since then, he's run a very poor race over the same course and distance in a G1 at the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF). Excuses have been proffered for that clunk: he was messed about with by High Definition, he went too fast, etc. But they didn't go crazy fast, and High Def mainly messed with himself as he tumbled at the fourth. Word is (take it or leave it, obvs) that FV was lame for a week after Leopardstown so, if you've backed him ante post you'll see that as legitimacy and hope, and if you haven't you'll see it as a concern and a reason to look elsewhere. Such is the way of value betting...

I've backed him at shorter than he is now and I am not remotely inclined to go in again!

But assessing the remainder is also tricky. Marine Nationale was the early season poster boy - and he might perhaps be the late season heartthrob, too, except that we've not seen him since early December; his form has taken a few dents in the interim. In fairness, he's an unbeaten-in-four Grade 1 winner so it will be no shock if he's the best of these but that 100-day layoff would be the longest by a winner since Captain Cee Bee in 2008 and only the second triple-digit absence since at least 1997.

Il Etait Temps has to be a player. Only fifth and fourth behind Vauban in the four-year-old Grade 1's at Cheltenham and Punchestown a year ago, Willie Mullins has had a novice hurdler with plenty of experience to work with this term; and he's been rewarded with wins either side of getting closest to Facile Vega at Christmas. Of course, most recently Il Etait Temps won 'that' race in which HD dived and FV bombed. Although he was a bit awkward early in transit that day, he powered through the line and was just on ten lengths clear of second-placed Inthepocket, Dark Raven a neck back in third. Despite his relative hurdling experience, IET can look a bit slovenly at a flight for all that he's generally safe across them.

High Definition is obviously a very high class ex-flat horse; he was favourite for the Dante as a three-year-old and ran second in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup and third in the Group 1 Coronation Cup last year. The problem is that, as obviously and unsurprisingly fast as he has been, he jumps like, well, like a Dante favourite. I think he's very likely to be found out in a race as hot as this, especially with other pace players from the get go.

Both Inthepocket and Dark Raven have a place chance on that DRF form: they each brought unbeaten in three records to the G1 party there and each emerged with a degree of credit, Inthepocket having found himself exactly that at a key point in the race. Crucially, both are entitled to be wiser for their first exposure to top class company.

What of the British challenge? The most obvious contender is Tahmuras, winner of a maiden hurdle at Chepstow, a Listed at Haydock and the Grade 1 Tolworth at Sandown. There have been six subsequent winners from his maiden, and the Tolworth form is standing up too: the third there won a G2 next time, the fourth won a novice and was then second in the same G2, and the fifth - Authorised Speed - easily reverted to winning ways back in shallower waters. He's won on soft and good to soft so no ground concerns. The question is how the UK level compares with its Irish counterpart.

Rare Edition was very disappointing when only second in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon, a race won in 2020 by Shishkin en route to Supreme glory. He apparently scoped dirty after the race and there has been some whispering about back spasms, both of which appear to have now been resolved. Trainer Charlie Longsdon is bullish about his chance and, on the evidence of the book, he's a place possible at least... if the British form holds its own.

The talking horse in recent days has been Diverge, who won a 22 runner maiden hurdle by 23 lengths. None of the eleven horses to run again since that race have won, and only one hit the frame: the form is weak regardless of how good Diverge might turn out to be. He's inexperienced, too, and for those reasons, as the Dragons say, I'm out.

Olly Murphy runs two in the race, Chasing Fire and Strong Leader, and my preference of the pair is for the former. He's unbeaten in a point, a bumper, and three hurdle races and, though untested in Graded company, he's kicked to the kerb everything he's faced hitherto. I feel like the quicker they go the better for him, as he looks a very strong stayer.

Fennor Cross is a massive price but is a dual Cheltenham hurdle winner this season, the second of which was in the Grade 2 Supreme trial. That was in mid-November, however, and he's not been seen since as, presumably, he needs good ground - the underfoot for both those course scores. Alas, it looks unlikely that will be the description for race one, day one.

Supreme Novices' Pace Projection

Likely to be quick, as forward-goers like High Definition and Rare Edition collide with an ocean of adrenaline coursing through the jockeys' veins for the first rising tape of the week.

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Selection

I don't have a strong opinion here except that the favourite is poor value. Note, I don't think he is sure to lose, just that his win probability may be lower than his price implies. That's a general take through all of the races: any horse can - and, at Cheltenham, often does - win any race. So we're looking for something that might have a better chance than implied in its price. In this race, I think Il Etait Temps is a fair price, especially if you can find four each way places; and it wouldn't surprise if Tahmuras ran a big race either, especially with his trainer in terrific form.

2.10 Arkle Challenge Chase (Grade 1, 2m)

The first chase of the week is a speed test for novices, and frequently advertises the claims of a potential Champion Chaser of the near future. This season, battle lines are drawn between Britain and Ireland and, as with the Champion Hurdle two races later, team captains are Messrs Henderson and Mullins.

For the home squad, Hendo saddles Jonbon, second (third if you include yawning daylight) in last year's Supreme behind Constitution Hill. In the absence of that monster, Jonbon won the G1 Top Novices' Hurdle at Aintree, beating a chap called El Fabiolo. This season, the JP McManus-owned seven-year-old has won all three chase starts, mostly in the manner of a good'un; that said, he was more workmanlike than striking in his Festival prep in the Kingmaker at Warwick. There, he eventually eked out a five-length margin over Calico in a match. The form of that race has received a boost with the runner-up - a twelve-length winner in Class 3 handicap company before Warwick - going in again at Doncaster in a £20k Class 2 handicap since. Obviously, this is a different kettle of gravy, but there's also every chance that Jonbon was under-cooked for his preparatory spin: he'll be cherry ripe now.

Pop back to that Aintree G1 and we find our other joint favourite. There was little between Jonbon and El Fabiolo in Liverpool and they may again be hard to separate. Willie's contender has had two chasing starts, winning by 19L and 10L, the latter in the Grade 1 Irish Arkle at the Dublin Racing Festival. Handy enough throughout, he pounced on trailblazing Dysart Dynamo approaching the second last and had enough energy left to go clear of a three-way picture for the places between Banbridge, DD and Appreciate It. If they all stand up it's hard to see the placed horses reversing with the winner, in spite of the argument that the furlong and a bit shorter trip might favour the pace horse. That said, El Fabiolo did not impress with his jumping at Leopardstown.

Those that fell or unseated last time are 1 from 14 in recent times with nine of them sent off 11/1 or shorter: it's not obviously a positive for the chance of Saint Roi but nor is it a terminal knock. This lad was fourth in last year's Champion Hurdle and won a Grade 1 novice chase at Christmas, so he's oodles of class; but he was hurdling for four seasons including his time in France which sometimes makes it more difficult for horses to make a chasing shape thereafter. He's bang there on talent but that leaping has to be a concern.

The rest are unlikely to be good enough.

Arkle Pace Projection

There looks to be plenty of early speed in this line up with each of Ha d'Or, Dysart Dynamo and Jonbon leading in their most recent three races. Jonbon is expected to sit slightly off the fiercest of the sizzle.

Arkle Chase Selection

A race that will probably play out in line with the market expectation of a duel between Jonbon and El Fabiolo. If El Fab's jumping holds up, I think he'll win, and if it doesn't I think Jonbon will win. I don't really see Dysart Dynamo sustaining his front-footed charge and prefer Saint Roi to travel round in his own time and pick up the each way pieces. Not especially a betting race if you haven't already played, I don't think.

2.50 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3 handicap, 3m1f)

The first of nine handicaps and I'll tell you now that my thoughts will be (mercifully) brief. This race has been won by the home team exclusively since Dun Doire and Tony Martin wrested it away in 2006. They actually don't run many - just three darts this year - and I'll be fielding against them, perhaps carelessly.

My shortlist is Corach Rambler, The Goffer (though he is Irish), and the Tizzard pair, Oscar Elite and The Big Breakaway.

Corach Rambler won the race last year and will again be played late; he was much the best that day and is only six pounds higher now. A fine fourth of 15 in the Coral Gold Cup (Hennessy as was) in November was his most recent run, though that was 108 days ago. Joes Edge defied a 114 day absence in 2007 though such extended layoffs are exceptional when it comes to Ultima winners.

The Goffer won a Grade A handicap chase at Leopardstown last time off a mark of 138. He's got 149 here, as a result of both that win and the recalibration of Irish marks to British ones; while that seems a hefty enough elevation to overcome, the step back up to an extended three miles could be in his favour. He's a novice and so remains somewhat unexposed.

I had a good bet on Oscar Elite in this last year. That partially paid off - the place part specifically - as he finished third. Given he was subsequently found to have bled from the nose, and he is now just a pound higher in the weights, and that he won last time out, I like his chance again. He won't want it too soft, though. Tizzard's other runner, The Big Breakaway, on the other hand loves the wet. He was third in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase two years ago and a game second in the Welsh National at the end of last year - carrying 11-13 - last time. He jumps, he stays, he handles the track and ground and he's very much a runner for me.

Ultima Pace Projection

It will be frenetic, due to the field size and the number of jockeys having their first ride of the week. Luck in running is needed, and usually patience, too.

Ultima Handicap Chase Selection

Skybet are paying EIGHT places on this race, and a couple of others are seven places deep. That gives us plenty of chances and the first name on the team sheet is Corach Rambler, whose run style lends itself to hitting the frame even without extended places! I'm slightly on weather watch with Oscar Elite, very much liking his chance on good to soft but less keen on softer. I'd rather take shorter when knowing the ground with him. In the end, I'm swerving The Goffer on the basis of the Irish record, which will of course be the wrong thing to do one of these years; but I definitely want a bit of the The Big Breakaway with the extended places as well.

Suggestion: With as many as eight places on offer, you can take two or three each way and potentially be rewarded on all places while trebling your chance of hitting the win jackpot. In that context, back any/all of 6/1 Corach Rambler, 11/1 Oscar Elite (wait for ground news is my advice), and 14/1 The Big Breakaway.

3.30 Champion Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)

The undoubted highlight of day one is the Grade 1 Champion Hurdle. Since just under two hours before last year's Champion Hurdle, Constitution Hill has been close to, or outright, favourite for the 2023 renewal. The reason for that was his destruction of a solid-looking Supreme Novices' Hurdle field in the 2022 curtain raiser, where he easily despatched Jonbon et al in a very fast time. True, both Dysart Dynamo (joint favourite with CH that day) and Mighty Potter, unbeaten in four since, both failed to complete; but that is, after all, a fairly important part of the challenge.

Since sauntering home a year ago, Nicky Henderson's six-year-old son of Blue Bresil has bolted up by a dozen lengths from Epatante in the G1 Fighting Fifth, and hosed in by seventeen lengths from the same rival in the G1 Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. He's won his last four starts, all Grade 1's, by 12L, 22L, 12L, and 17L - and had won his previous start by 14L. His speed figures are just about off the scale and he can take a position wherever in the field meaning tactics are not a worry. Given he's normally an excellent jumper, there are essentially no holes in Constitution Hill's profile whatsoever and he's a very worthy odds-on favourite.

If this year's Champion Hurdle is not to be a procession, the most obvious candidate to make a race of things is State Man. Since 2009, Nicky Henderson leads Willie Mullins - in whose care State Man resides - 5-4 and, in search of the equaliser, Mullins' Man has very strong credentials. At least, in any other year he would have. To wit, he's unbeaten in six straight completed starts, a sequence that includes last year's County Hurdle followed by four consecutive Grade 1 races. In that quartet of G1 scores, he's earned closing comments as follows: "easily", "comfortably", "easily", "comfortably".

Well, something has to give, and the market is fairly confident it will be the British champion lording it over his Irish counterpart. I'm also confident that will be the case having not been overly impressed with what State Man found off the bridle in the County, the only time he's needed to be pushed out to the line. But I don't have enough threes to try to steal some ones at the prevailing odds. So how else to play? We'll come to that. First, what of the supporting cast?

Willie has more than just State Man; he also saddles last year's Triumph Hurdle winner, Vauban, and he's an interesting contender. While Constitution Hill and State Man are likely to be on or close to the pace, Vauban has been ridden a lot more patiently and, as a result, has finished his races off well in respectable defeats to State Man. If State Man tries to force things against the favourite - and it's unlikely the Closutton team will be riding for a place - then Vauban may be the one to hoover up any crumbs.

The second possible in that context is I Like To Move It, whose Greatwood and Kingwell Hurdle wins have advertised his 'dark horse' claims. True, he was well seen off by Marie's Rock in the Relkeel, though that was over an extra half mile; and he was no match for State Man in the County a year ago. He has some impressive performances to his name, most of them on genuine good ground, but I can't quite shake that County clunk from my memory banks.

Not So Sleepy has a fair record in the race: 5th two years ago and 6th last year, but he's eleven now; and I don't give Zanahiyr or Jason The Militant any material chance.

Champion Hurdle Pace Projection

Any of Jason The Militant, Not So Sleepy, or the big pair of Constitution Hill and State Man could take them along. Most likely is that the top two in the betting will mark each other behind the rags, with Vauban expected to be ridden cold at the back of the field.

Champion Hurdle Selection

The win market is all about Constitution Hill, who better ratings judges are suggesting is the best we've seen in a very, very long time. If that's right, he's a fair enough price for those who like playing big at short. Each way is not an option in a seven-runner race generally, still less with such a domineering jolly; but 'without the favourite' is a way in. That market has its own shortie, too, in State Man but I feel Vauban 'without' is a credible alternative given how the race is likely to pan out. If State Man and Constitution Hill have at it from far enough out, it's possible that SM cracks; Vauban wasn't far behind him in steadily enough run G1's in Ireland and can come through for silver.

Suggestion: Back Vauban without the favourite at anything better than 7/2 (4/1 with Hills at time of writing).

4.10 Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m4f)

There has been plenty of chat on the Maremite Hurdle - some love it, some hate it. Me? I'm in the love camp, and I don't really understand the naysayers who I feel are only rehashing the argument, which has surely had its day now, that it denigrates the Champion Hurdle. Let's just accept the new world and move forward - and what better time to do that than in a year which features the winners of THREE Champion Hurdles?

Well, why aren't they running in that race then, I hear (one of) you cry! The answer, of course, is trajectory; and that is the byword for attempting to solve this wagering puzzle. Cast back to 2020, and a six-year-old Epatante was winning the Blue Riband while forty minutes later Honeysuckle, also six, was winning this race. Five-year-old Marie's Rock had won a Listed mares race at Taunton, and Love Envoi was a year away from making her debut.

In 2021, Epatante could only finish third in the Champion Hurdle, behind Honeysuckle. Marie's Rock had recently run third in a mares' Grade 2 at Doncaster and Love Envoi was about to win a Wexford bumper on her first start. A year later, last year, and Honeysuckle again won the Champion Hurdle with Epatante her nearest pursuer on this occasion. Marie's Rock had graduated to winning the Mares' Hurdle and Love Envoi the Mares' Novices Hurdle.

And so to this term. Honeysuckle, heretofore unbeaten in 16 Rules races and a point to point, is now without a win in her two seasonal spins. Third to the improving - and very good on soft ground - Teahupoo over this sort of trip, and then second to the improving - and just very good - State Man over two miles is hardly poor form; but it is a step down from where she was previously. The question then is whether Honeysuckle is regressing slowly enough to still have something in hand of Epatante, herself steadily on the downgrade, and of the progressive Marie's Rock and highly progressive Love Envoi: that's what makes this such a fascinating conundrum.

Epatante has been thumped twice in Grade 1's by Constitution Hill this season; and then beat a field of inferior mares in appropriate fashion. She's only run once at this longer distance, when winning the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle easily last season. Her main market rival that day fell at the last as Epatante was looming upsides, but she looked to have had him covered at that point. She is holding her form fairly well and is unexposed at the trip.

Marie's Rock has been a revelation since winning a handicap hurdle in December 2021: from that point on, she's won five of six - pulling up having been hampered on the other start - a sequence that includes the Mares' Hurdle and Punchestown equivalent (both G1) last season and the Relkeel Hurdle on her only start this year. My reservation, aside from the very light 2022/23 campaign, is the substance of her form: in last year's Mares' Hurdle she beat 150-rated Echoes In Rain, who doesn't seem to stay this far, and a bunch of 140-something mares; at Punchestown, she beat a conceivably over the top Epatante (who had run 2nd in the Champion Hurdle and won the Aintree Hurdle in the previous six weeks); and in the Relkeel she beat an array of dodgy geezers the likes of which would not look out of place outside an East London boozer (I should know!). She might win - she's just about favourite after all - but her rising star may have just about reached its apex to my eye.

As for Love Envoi, she needs the rain to continue her own ascent. She has won eight of her nine starts to date, including last year's Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle here and her only defeat - second to Brandy Love - was on yielding turf. She's tough, loves the mud and has improved her top Racing Post Rating in each of her last seven races; it's not a big price that she'll improve on it again - the question is whether she can do it to a sufficient degree to usurp those above her. Trajectories, eh?

Brandy Love has been very lightly raced but is a Grade 1 winner at this range, when seeing off Love Envoi who, by contrast, was having her sixth battle of last season. I don't expect her to confirm the form with Harry Fry's mare.

Mares' Hurdle Pace Projection

This looks like it will be run at a sensible even gallop.

Mares' Hurdle Selection

A fantastic race in terms of stalwarts of the game and in competitive terms. Finding the winner will be difficult. Having backed Honeysuckle, I didn't think she'd face such a deep field - and I don't think connections did either. But she's still just about the one to beat, along with Epatante. I'm against Marie's Rock - fully mindful that it might look preposterous post-race - and, if it is soft, I'd want Love Envoi onside, too. It's that kind of contest!

Suggestion: The each way 'bet to nothing' (it doesn't exist, but you know what I mean) is 9/2 Epatante, who looks sure to be bang there; and I'm going to have a small bit on 9/1 Love Envoi as well, if the ground is soft.

4.50 Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Fred Winter, Grade 3, 2m 1/2f)

Too difficult. I've backed loads of them, which is ridiculous, because I haven't got a clue who wins. The average winning SP since 2012 has been 27/1, and there have been nine winners priced 20/1 or bigger since the race's inception in 2005; so the market doesn't have a clue who wins either! The suggestion, then, is to ignore anything shorter than 16/1 and try to make a case for two or three darts, win only, for small change.

In that spirit, I offer the following:

Afadil - a Paul Nicholls French import a la Sanctuaire, Qualando and Diego du Charmil, all of whom won this for PFN

Metamorpheus and Jazzy Matty - with thanks to Gavin Ryan for this snippet: this pair both ran in the Naas race that has thrown the winner of the last four Fred Boodles. So, too, did Byker, Sir Allen, and Morning Soldier - and the one I had most on for this prior to that race, Almuhit. He blew the start and was left 30 lengths!!!

Boodles Handicap Hurdle Pace Projection

A good half dozen possible pace angles here, headed perhaps by Mighty Mo Missouri. Expect thrills and spills.

Boodles Handicap Hurdle selection

I cannot with clean conscience propose you bet anything in this race on my say so. I've backed a few, including the three mentioned above.

Suggestion: One for a blindfold and Mr Felt Tippy, your magic marker

5.30 National Hunt Chase (Grade 2, 3m 6f)

The four miler is not quite the race it was, and not just because it's only three miles and six furlongs in distance these days. This oldest race of the Festival and monument to the Corinthian nature that characterised National Hunt racing for a million years has undergone more nips and tucks to its race conditions than <insert your preferred surgically enhanced pantomime dame here>.

Its current format, borne somewhat legitimately out of the ugly optic that was the 2019 renewal, where just four of 18 starters completed and 'encouragement' was outside of what might be termed the comfort zone for even the most stoic of country sports fans, comprises more than just a reduced race distance. That range truncation implies a reduction in the number of fences, and there are indeed two fewer - 23 versus the previous 25 - and, additionally, no horse rated below 120 or with fewer than two chase starts (including one in the current season and one over about three miles or more) will qualify. The upshot is that a race that drew 17-20-18-16-18 runners up to 2019 has, since the amendments, attracted 14, 12 and, last year, just six runners. It's another smallish field this year, with ten going to post.

The market has been headed for a long time by Gaillard du Mesnil, a hyper consistent horse but only an occasional visitor to the winners' enclosure. To wit, in 13 Rules starts he's finished in the places on all bar one occasion, but has won just four times - and only once in eight starts in the past two years. That's got to be a concern about a horse priced around the even money mark, for all that many of those form lines give him a clear edge on his field. He was third in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase last year and filled the same position, in a field of 27, in the Irish Grand National a month later. This season, GdM followed up a good second to Mighty Potter over an inadequate two and a half miles with one of those elusive wins - and by eight lengths no less - against Churchstonewarrior, a surprise defector at the final declaration stage, in a three mile Grade 1 at Christmas. He was again beaten by the Potter when dropped back to the Potter's trip territory in a G1 at the DRF, and will clearly relish this more stamina-emphasised test. But did I mention that he doesn't win all that often?

The key to Chemical Energy appears to be in the turf. His form on good ground is 112111, while on softer he's 140854. It's bound to be softer than good and he has some stamina questions to answer, too. He's not for me.

Mahler Mission ran a fair race (7th of 16) in last year's Albert Bartlett and, though he was whacked in a novices' chase at Cheltenham early in the season, that was surely a sighter on ground much faster than ideal. More recently he's won a beginners' and then ran a gallant second to Churchstonewarrior.

Minella Crooner was a good staying hurdler, running second to Minella Cocooner in the Nathaniel Lacy at the 2022 DRF. He's one from four over fences though was also second in a Grade 2 in early season. The balance of his performances is not at the level of some of his rivals, and he might not want it too soft either. However, an interesting outsider to consider is Tenzing: he's still a maiden after three chase starts but that trio includes finishing close to Gerri Colombe and Ramillies before being beaten a little further last time by Mahler Mission. On the pick of those runs, he could again challenge for the frame.

Best of the (limited) British defence is probably Mister Coffey, a perma-bridesmaid trained by Nicky Henderson. He's finished second in five of his last six starts, a run that includes the G1 Scilly Isles Novices' Chase of last year and the Kim Muir a month later. He looked a strong stayer at last season's Festival and this test might be just the ticket.

Of the big prices, Coolvalla has nothing like the ratings to be in the shake up at this level. And yet, he's won handicap chases by 19 lengths and 17 lengths the last twice, has proven stamina, jumps well, and comes here nicely rested. He might outrun his 66/1 odds.

National Hunt Chase Pace Projection

A few possibles for the lead, most notably Mahler Mission, Minella Crooner, and perhaps Bellatrixsa. At the other end of the field, Chemical Energy will probably be patiently ridden by that master of the waiting ride, Jamie Codd.

National Hunt Chase Selection

On official ratings, Gaillard du Mesnil is clear of his field and he obviously has the talent to win; but his inability to put races to bed, even if they have been higher level races, has to be a worry at the price. Against him, there is a clutch of horses separated by only a few pounds on ratings, and it will be the one that adapts best to this somewhat unique test who is the each way bet. That might be the ultra-consistent Mister Coffey, who has placed Festival form to his name.

Suggestion: Back Mister Coffey each way at 9/1.

It's a fascinating start to the week, with top class horses aplenty and deep, deep fields in the main. Good luck with your betting in the opening quarter!

Matt

London Racing Club Cheltenham Preview Night Notes

9 March 2023/in Cheltenham Festival Tips, Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

In front of a packed and enthralled gathering at South Kensington Holiday Inn, London Racing Club's annual 'best of breed' Cheltenham Preview Evening unfurled. Gently and eloquently compered by Racing Post senior writer, Lee Mottershead (LM), the panel further comprised stats man extraordinaire and former author of Weatherby's annual guide, Matt Tombs (MT), Racing TV's outstanding host and form judge, Lydia Hislop (LH), and - with a line from the odds makers, Sam Hockenhull of Fitzdares (SH).

What follows are their thoughts as far as I was able to scribble them down while still mainly aiming to enjoy the show!

TUESDAY

Supreme Novices' Hurdle

LH - Concerned by Facile Vega's last run. Was reportedly lame after: that's a worry. Prefer Rare Edition each way, who was impressive at Christmas but came back with a dirty scope after his race at Huntingdon. Not dismissing Il Etait Temps, though he can pull hard.

MT - Is FV ground dependent? Best form seems to be on soft, could be a place lay on a sounder surface. Il Etait Temps is unsexy but is a good value e/w play. Like Rare Edition as well. At longer prices, Diverge and Doctor Bravo are mildly interesting in what looks a very open and potentially substandard renewal.

Arkle

SH - Hard to separate the top two in the betting

MT - Strongest view of day 1: on form, El Fabiolo should be clear favourite. Jonbon jumped right at Warwick and, while El Fab also has jumping concerns, he's always jumped well immediately after making his mistakes. Dysart Dynamo is probably the best jumper in the field but if he goes too hard on the front could bomb out completely.

LH - Feel like the Warwick race has been overplayed in terms of Jonbon form. Calico (2nd there) showed he'd improved when winning next time. Not worried about Jonbon adjusting right. El Fabiolo "occasionally quite clumsy", but agree the Irish Arkle is the best form on show so far. But this race is likely to be the best form by season end. Saint Roi is interesting - "jockey admitted falling off" last time. Won't get involved in any pacey business on the front end and so is playable e/w at the prices.

Champion Hurdle

MT - Think Constitution Hill might be better than Istabraq; he's the complete package.

LH - It's a horse race ("thankfully"), and stuff can go wrong; but it will very much have to for CH to get beaten in the CH. I Like To Move It the "wise guy" horse but his forward-going style may not be suited to the tactical shape of the race.

Mares' Hurdle

SH - Epatante is a very interesting supplement. Want to lay Honeysuckle. Love Envoi is backable on softer ground.

LH - Can't make a strong case for Honeysuckle, but can see why she's stepped up to Mares' Hurdle distance. Epatante appears to be regressing more slowly than Honeysuckle and "mullered" some lesser horses at Doncaster last time. Interested in Love Envoi and Maries Rock if she shows here, but not Echoes In Rain.

MT - Can see a wall of money for Honeysuckle on the day so might be a back to lay opportunity. Maries Rock probably going to Stayers' Hurdle but would "really fancy her" if turning up here.

Rest of Tuesday

SH - Ultima: Happygolucky ran well at Newcastle off a big break before tiring in the straight. Was given a sighter at Cheltenham next time. Form looks decent and trainer Kim Bailey thinks a lot of the horse. Can't see Corach Rambler winning from behind again. Don't like Tekao in the Boodles, don't think he'll get up the hill.

MT - 'Waited with' run style can be a positive in the Ultima where plenty of jockeys go off too quickly. Gaillard du Mesnil is opposable at the prices in the NH Chase. Don't think that race's profile suits such a strong stayer any more. Churchstonewarrior could be a playable alternative - going slower could suit him.

LH - Happygolucky in the Ultima. Into Overdrive is interesting, too. Afadil in the Boodles. Want to oppose GdM in the NH Chase, with Mahler Mission and Chemical Energy viable options.

WEDNESDAY

Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

SH - Impaire Et Passe (IeP) the recent money horse.

LH - IeP has the right combination of speed and jumping. Ruby/Willie vibes are very strong. Inthepocket is interesting up in trip; didn't the run of the race at the Dublin Racing Festival. Might need playing late but looks fair e/w.

MT - Would love to own Hermes Allen, but wouldn't run him in this race! Nicholls doesn't tend to hard train novice hurdlers. IeP is "nap of the whole Festival". He has everything you need for this job.

Brown Advisory Novices' Chase

LH - Thyme Hill form awful, the time was "glacial" 😆 Rain might be important for Gerri Colombe. Without rain, not sure he'll enjoy downhill sections of the track. Like The Real Whacker, but form has taken some knocks.

SH - Don't like Thyme Hill

MT - Lay of the meeting is Thyme Hill. Want to oppose Sir Gerhard who is inexperienced over fences and would probably be running over shorter if trained by anyone else than Willie. Gerri is a banker if it's wet. Like TRW as well. Thunder Rock could be an 'in running' play if he's travelling well in the first mile.

Champion Chase

MT - Edwardstone seems to be the momentum horse. Most likely winner but Editeur du Gite is some value - he's underestimated. Gentleman Du Mee is the horse liked most at the prices: looks progressive.

LH - Energumene jumps right which is a problem at Cheltenham; cannot have him at all. EdG is a fair price, and he might be Gentleman's problem if he doesn't allow that one to dominate from the front. Edwardstone probably just wins, after a good prep when a lot went wrong last time. He's the nap of the day.

Rest of Wednesday

MT - Cross Country: Gordon Elliott is the man for this now, with a stranglehold on the race. Delta Work probably wins if the ground is soft, Galvin probably wins if it's quicker. In Grand Annual, Rouge Vif and Sizing Pottsie have interesting profiles.

LH - Rouge Vif had a nice prep for the Grand Annual at Doncaster, but would be worried about rain for him.

THURSDAY

Turners Novices' Chase

SH - Betting each way at shortish prices is not for everyone, but Banbridge will surely be hard to keep out of the frame and has a solid win chance, too.

LM - Nicky Henderson likes Balco Coastal at a big price

MT - Tipped Banbridge early season... for the Brown Advisory! In the Balco Coastal camp, possibly got there too soon in the Scilly Isles, and might appreciate going left-handed. One of the e/w bets of the week.

LH - Worried about Mighty Potter potentially not handling the travel/prelims again after last year. Could be different story this time but he has to overcome that and is very short in the betting considering. Banbridge is more straightforward and Balco Coastal is interesting at a bigger price, too. Appreciate It might be "a bit aged" to be winning this.

Stayers' Hurdle

SH - If Blazing Khal runs, he will go off favourite and looks the most likely winner.

LH - Will BK make it? The jockey - trainer's son - is a slight concern, too, as he won't be able to claim his usual five pounds. Maries Rock is very keen, while Teahupoo needs soft ground (might get it). Flooring Porter has had issues in the build up; Home By The Lee is improving but has more to find... which leaves Gold Tweet. The French horse has had a perfect prep, and jumps brilliantly.

MT - Ground important for Teahupoo who wants "proper soft". Blazing Khal has fitness and jockey concerns. Quite like HBTL though he wouldn't want a dawdling pace. If Maries Rock settles, she might be the bet.

Ryanair

MT - Hitman without the favourite (Shishkin) looks a good bet.

LH - Shishkin is a very likely winner; he "towers above the opposition". French Dynamite playable without the favourite: should like the return to Cheltenham, is improving but can make mistakes. Not interested in hold up types like Fury Road in this.

Rest of Thursday

LH - Mares' Novices: Luccia very good but Halka du Tabert, Magical Zoe and Harmonya Maker are all possibles, too. Check the ground before betting in this one. In the Festival Plate, Frero Banbou has been shaping like he needs this step up in trip.

SH - In the Mares' Novices, You Wear It Well keeps improving and wasn't far behind Hermes Allen in G1 Challow. Will stay on up the hill. Main danger might be Ashroe Diamond.

MT - Frero Banbou in the Plate. In the Mares' Novices, Halka du Tabert didn't get a good ride last time: she's better than that. In the Pertemps Final, Good Time Jonny could be a good old fashioned Tony Martin plot. Ran in Albert Bartlett last year, and been a mixed bag this season: very well weighted on his best form.

FRIDAY

Triumph Hurdle

MT - 'Vibes' have been for Blood Destiny, but not a betting race

LH - Preview-night yak has raised the possibility Paul Townend might ride Blood Destiny, which would move him into favouritism. Lossiemouth has to prove herself in an end to end gallop, while Gala Marceau probably didn't get the credit she deserved last time: she's overpriced in relation to Lossiemouth. All three of those are Willie horses, so jockey bookings will be instructive. Comfort Zone can run well and could be the e/w play, though Aintree might be more his bag.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

MT - This is a great betting race, as it's a different test from most of the races through the season and throws up some big priced winner as a result. Only one winner shorter than 11/1 in the past nine years. That said, may need to be more open-minded this year. Favori de Champdou and Affordale Fury are two of interest, but whatever you like, swing win only rather than each way.

LH - Hiddenvalley Lake one to be with. Profile of race has changed: now less seasoned horses can win. Absolute Notions a player if running here; so too Dawn Rising. Will be looking at unexposed types at the 48 hour stage.

GOLD CUP

LH - Galopin Des Champs is a very likely winner but, at bigger prices, Ahoy Senor could have a perfect setup in this test. Noble Yeats looks good to pick up place pieces. Although Bravemansgame may prefer flatter tracks, he has the strongest form in the race this season. Strongly against A Plus Tard's profile coming into the race. Even at his best, which we've not seen for a year, GdC would beat him anyway.

MT - Coming round to Bravemansgame having not been a fan early season - he's very hard to knock. Ahoy Senor may attempt a Coneygree off the front. Heart says GdC, value is Bmg. Against APT.

Rest of Friday

SH - Mares Chase: Allegorie de Vassy might be in a different league.

LH - Mares Chase: Allegorie de Vassy "jumps wildly right". Along with Thyme Hill, she's the one all week to field against the strongest! Jeremy's Flame looks solid while Elimay is too big a price.

MT - Hunter Chase: Rocky's Howya is a young horse and a complete unknown quantity. He's 5/5 in points this season, some of the form of which has worked out nicely.

CHARITY BETS

LH - The Real Whacker in Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (SP)

MT - Balco Coastal e/w in the Turners Novices' Chase (16/1)

LM - Milkwood e/w in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (40/1)

A Data Driven Look at Cheltenham Festival Handicaps

2 March 2023/in Cheltenham Festival Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

It's less than two weeks until the tapes rise on the 2023 Cheltenham Festival and, while the Grade 1 action features the very best British and Irish (as well as a soupcon of French) National Hunt horses, it is the handicaps where the biggest scores are often made.

The potential for a windfall is created by deep fields in terms of both quantity and quality: landing on the right one is usually tough. In what follows, then, I'll attempt to focus the lens on areas of punting potential based on recent history. In plain English, I'll share some stats that might find a winner or two in the Cheltenham Festival handicaps.

As a starting point, my mate Ben Aitken (at Narrowing The Field) has kindly given permission for me to share a subset of the excellent research he's put together in a free guide he calls the 'Cheat Sheet'. You can download the full report (it's short but punchy, not unlike me!) here: Grab Ben's CheltFest Handicap Cheat Sheet >>

Ben's research covers the winners and places at the most recent five Festivals, and I'll use the same period for my contributions. I'll suffix Ben's with (NTF).

Handicap Hurdles

First off, we'll look at the handicap hurdles as a collective, excepting the Fred Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. That leaves the Coral Cup, Pertemps Final, County Hurdle and Martin Pipe: four races times five years equals 20 handicap hurdle winners and 80 placed horses. Those wins and places were drawn from 478 individual runners.

The first thing to note is that 14 of the 20 winners were trained in Ireland, as were 47 of the placed horses. That majority of both major and minor spoils was accumulated from a minority of the total runners (70% winners, 59% placed horses, from 44% of the runners).

However, the volume of Irish representation has increased notably in just those few years as the chart below illustrates:

In 2018 and 2019, there were 34 and 35 raiders respectively; last year, there were 61. Expect another glut of Irish-trained handicap hurdle challengers in 2023.

Some features of non-juvenile handicap hurdle winners in the past five years are as follows:

- All 20 had had ten or fewer handicap hurdle runs, representing 100% of the winners (and 95% of the placed horses) from 90% of the runners (NTF)

- All 20 (100%) winners - and 91% of the placers - had last run between 18 and 98 days ago, from 87% of the runners. Obviously, those numbers are conveniently precise but a recent run or much more than three months away is not a positive. That said, the places are pretty much in line with numerical representation (NTF)

- 19/20 (95%) had no more than one prior handicap hurdle win, from 77% of the runners. 86% of the placed horses also met this criterion (NTF)

Other notable snippets include:

- 4 of 20 winners (17 placers) were making their handicap debut (20% of the winners, 21% of the places, from 16% of the runners). While 'cap debs have slightly outpunched their numbers, they've been expensive to follow, losing 45.75 points at SP (-59% ROI - ouch!). The four winners included State Man, Galopin Des Champs and Saint Roi, all subsequent G1 winners.

- 9 of 20 winners (33 placers) ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 (or a Grade A or B handicap) last time, out of 140 qualifiers (45% winners, 41% placers, from 29% of the runners). They returned +88 at starting price.

- Focusing only on horses that ran 123 in 'actual' G1 and G2 races last time, they accounted for 5 of 20 winners and 10 placers from just 24 runners. That's 25% of the winners and 12.5% of the placers, from just 5% of the runners. And they were wildly profitable to follow, too: +127 at SP, and each way betting returned +170 for £1 e/w on each - a total that excludes 25/1 and 33/1 6th places, which many bookmakers would have paid down to.

- 13 of 36 female runners have finished in the top five, including four winners. The four winners were good enough for +43 after paying for the 32 'win only' losers. £1 e/w at standard four place terms would have returned £60.25 with 25% of the 36 females hitting the first four. The four fifth placed females included three at 20/1 and one at 25/1.

- Two of the six UK-trained non-novice handicap hurdle winners (Ch'tibello 12/1 and William Henry 28/1) were making their first start after wind surgery from a cohort of 13 runners. The other eleven finished 10th or worse! 🤷‍♀️

- Only one of the 20 races (5%) was won by a horse aged nine or above, seven placing (9%). 77 (16% of) runners were of that level of maturity.

Handicap Chases

As with the handicap hurdles, there were until recently five handicap chases, one of which was a novice handicap chase. That has been usurped by the Mares' Chase - pause for your own personal interjection here - leaving a quartet comprised of the Ultima, Grand Annual, Kim Muir and Festival Plate. Here are a few handicap chase snippets, some care of (NTF).

There were 409 runners in those 20 handicap chases, no dead heats so 20 winners, and 79 placed horses.

- All 20 had finished top 3 in at least one of their previous three starts, as had 70 of 79 placed horses (100% of the winners, 89% of the placers, from 83% of the runners) (NTF)

- 19/20 had previously run at Grade 1 or Grade 2 level (95% winners, 84% placers, from 74% of the runners) (NTF)

Whereas Irish-trained horses won 14/20 in the handicap hurdle section (excluding Fred Winter), it is UK-trained horses that have won 14/20 in the handicap chase division, including a clean sweep in 2022. The six Irish-trained winners in the last five years were all single figure prices, four of them favourite and four trained by Gordon Elliot (or his in absentia proxy, Denise Foster). Irish-trained horses sent off at a double-figure price were 0/54, just three places, in the 20 races in question. (However, they did enjoy greater success in the five years prior).

Conversely, last year's quartet of UK winners were priced at 10/1, 22/1, 28/1 and 40/1!

Willie Mullins rarely saddles a handicap chaser at the Festival, the eight he has done since 2018 failing to make the frame between them.

Handicap chase win and place rates were almost identical for horses wearing headgear compared with those that were not. Likewise, largely, age was not a factor, though the 11- and 12-year-olds placed a little higher than expectation (and won three times) from 30 runners.

Horses that failed to complete last time, or were beaten 30+ lengths, won twice (10% of the winners) and placed 15 times (19% of placers) from 107 runners (26% of runners). The win component saw a circa 80% negative ROI. Oof.

Conversely, last time out winners, or horses beaten two lengths or less, won eight times and placed 26 times from 116 starters (40% of the winners, 33% of the placers, from 28% of the runners). The 169 point profit (142% ROI) at Betfair SP was due entirely to the magnificent but sadly ill-fated Croco Bay's 179/1 winning exchange return.

*

There are lies, damned lies, and Festival handicap stats, so please consider the above with caution aforethought. Plots, back class, and luck in transit are all notable imponderables in the punting puzzle. The flip side is that, typically, we'll be getting a square price about any horse we identify that hits its mark, win or place.

Good luck,

Matt

Cheltenham Festival: The 15 year View

27 February 2023/in Cheltenham Festival Tips, Horse Racing Blog/by Dave Renham

It is almost that time! For many, the Cheltenham Festival is the highlight of not just the National Hunt season, but the whole racing year, writes Dave Renham.

In this article I will attempt to break down the facts and figures going back as far as 2008. This gives us 15 years’ worth of data to crunch, which is plenty to get our teeth into. Fifteen is also a neat number as we can easily compare 5–year periods (2008–2012; 2013–2017; 2018–2022) to see what, if anything has changed.

My main focus will be looking at the data as a whole – market factors, last time out (LTO) factors, etc. At the end I will delve briefly into Grade 1 contests only. In terms of profit and loss, I am going to use Betfair Starting Price, and take into account commission on potential profits.

Cheltenham Festival Stats for All Races

Since 2016 there have been 28 races in total at each year's Cheltenham Festival and that will be the same in 2023: four days with seven races on each day, and a rich variety of different race types and distances.

Market Factors

Let's first examine the results by market price. Although I am quoting profits/losses to BSP, the market price bands I am examining are based on Industry SPs. This is simply because we have more defined prices for this group:

The Evens to 9/4 bracket has proved the most profitable in ROI terms and, taking shorter priced runners as a whole, the market has been a pretty good guide. Combining all runners priced 6/1 or shorter we have seen 182 winners from 807 (SR 22.6%) for a small BSP loss of £7.42 (ROI –0.9%).

Despite these relatively positive figures, there are strong fluctuations year on year as the graph below shows.

As you can see, the win percentage / strike rate peaked in 2016 at 33.33%, whereas 2010, 2014 and 2017 saw percentages dip under half that figure. Eight of the years would have turned a profit, seven a loss. Hence one needs to be aware that results for runners priced 6/1 or shorter are difficult to predict for a one–off Festival, 28 races always being a small sample size. However, having said that, taking the overall data into account, one could do worse than focusing attention on this price band.

Performance of Favourites at the Cheltenham Festival (2008-2022)

A look at favourites next. Taking all favourites as a group (clear and joint favourites), they have secured 113 wins from 443 races (SR 25.5%). However, backing all of them would have returned £43.12 less than staked, equating to a loss of nearly 10 pence in the £. Before ‘binning’ favourites as a betting option though, let me share the stats comparing clear favourites with joint favourites:

There is quite a difference here! Of course, it is sometimes difficult to predict who the favourite will be pre-race which can be an issue for trying to exploit ‘market data’. However, as a general rule, the stronger the favourite the better. What I mean by that is, horses who are a much shorter price than the second horse in the betting tend to do best here at the festival. AND of course this type of favourite can be confidently predicted before the off.

For favourite fans here are a few profitable angles in relation to clear market leaders:

The best figures come from horses aged 7 to 9: we do need to be careful bracketing runners by age, in case there is back-fitting in play. However, this age bracket of runner is around the optimum age for high level jump racing and much is known about such runners. By that I mean we usually have detailed form lines for runners within this age bracket. Of course there are races at the festival where 7 to 9yos do not take part, but in the races they do, if any clear favourite is in this age band, I believe it demands close scrutiny.

We will examine Irish trainers versus UK trainers in more detail later, but Irish-trained clear favourites have done well. If we combine the clear favourite records of Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott and Henry De Bromhead, 39.1% of them won (54 wins from 138) for a profit of £27.25 (ROI +19.7%). The ‘rise’ of Irish runners will be a theme of this piece, and this can be seen when we look at a year by year breakdown of clear favourites that were trained in Ireland.

The graph illustrates a clear upwards trajectory with the last four years averaging out at just under 20 per meeting (19.5 to be precise). Essentially this means that around 70% of all races in the past four years have had an Irish-trained favourite. Compare this to the first five years (2008 to 2012) where the average was 7.4.

Last Time Out (LTO) performance

Cheltenham Festival Performance by LTO finishing position (2008-2022)

Onto last time out factors now with my initial focus being on where a horse finished in its most recent race:

Although horses that either finished 3^rd LTO or 5^th or worse have made a profit, this is down to big prices skewing the figures. As we can see, strike rates are low across the board, but if there is an area to concentrate on, it does seem to be last day winners. This is because they are the biggest group, have by far the best record win wise, and they have just about broken even.

Earlier I noted that LTO winners that went on to head the market at the festival have proved profitable. What about other areas?

Performance of LTO winners by Gender of Horse

I want to share some gender data with you in terms of the gender of horse. Male LTO winners make up around 90% of all such runners, but female LTO winners have comfortably outperformed their male counterparts at the festival in terms of strike rate:

194 female LTO winners have run at the festival with 31 winning. Not only that, if you had backed all of them ‘blind’ they would have secured you a profit of £116.24 (ROI 59.2%). If sticking to solely mixed sex races (races open to both sexes) the stats, albeit from a small sample, are even more impressive: 13 wins from 69 (SR 18.8%) for a profit of £116.14 (ROI +168.3%). Indeed, looking at the last three festivals (2020, 2021 and 2022) LTO winning female horses running in mixed sex races have won 8 races from just 20 runners!

Performance of LTO winners by LTO Race Class

Time to examine whether the class of race that the horse won last time out makes a difference... and it certainly seems to!

Horses that won a Grade 1 contest LTO have scored close to one race in every four which is impressive. Backing all runners would have yielded a good profit also of over 22p in the £. Horses winning LTO in either Grade 2, 3 or Listed company have very similar strike rates, but it is Listed LTO winners who have created the best profit (£49.48 returning 41p in the £).

LTO winners outside Graded and Listed company have by far the poorest strike rate as you would expect. They have incurred losses of £116.97 (ROI -8.3%) over the period of study. LTO winners outside Graded and Listed company have not surprisingly struggled even more when the race at Cheltenham is a Graded one – in these races their record reads 50 wins from 957 (SR 5.2%) for a loss of £149.46 (ROI -15.6%). Losses have been steepest in Grade 1 contests with your £1 bet returning on average 79p (loss of 21p in the £).

Performance of LTO winners by LTO Course

The next question I will try and address is, does the track at which the horse ran LTO make a difference? One might expect that horses that ran at a top track last time would outperform those that didn’t. The table below looks at any course that has sent 75 or more runners next time out to the Cheltenham Festival. I have ordered it by win strike rate:

What immediately resonates is the record of Irish tracks: the top four in the list are all Irish tracks and runners from all four (Thurles, Leopardstown, Naas and Navan) have secured decent profits at the festival to BSP. Irish tracks also take positions 6 and 7, giving them six of the first seven spots in the list. Focusing on those top four courses, here is win strike rate breakdown by 5-year groups:

The last decade has seen a notable uptick in performance which mirrors the type of pattern we saw earlier in terms of the increasing number of Irish runners that have started clear favourite. In that favourite data, the years 2008 to 2012 saw the smallest market leader numbers by some margin. Of course, we know about the dominance of Irish winners at recent Festivals but there is still plenty on which to chew in relation to possible value edges.

Before moving on, any system punters out there may want to consider an angle based on last time out runners from these four Irish tracks. It combines some positives we have already noted and is as follows:

LTO run at Leopardstown, Naas, Navan or Thurles
LTO run in Graded / Listed Race
Finished in first three LTO

The results were:

Ten of the 15 years would have yielded a profit, and a very good one in nine of those ten positive renewals. Three years made small losses, two years quite big losses.

Sceptics will naturally be highlighting the fact that this system idea is back-fitted, and to a great extent they would be right. However, the rules are simple, logical, and there are not many of them, all of which is positive from a system building perspective.

I am definitely not advocating that this system is one that punters should use ‘blind’ at the 2023 festival, but it may offer a potential starting point, to at least give you a pool of runners to consider. Also, for readers with little time to study form, I am confident there are plenty of systems around that are less likely to produce a profit at the Festival than this one.

Irish runners versus UK runners

We have already noted some positives connected with Irish runners or those that raced in Ireland last time. It goes without saying that the vast majority of horses racing at Cheltenham that raced in Ireland last time out would have been from Irish stables; in fact 97% of them were. Hence there definitely has been a strong Irish bias.

Below is a breakdown of the records of all UK trainers versus all Irish trainers:

Looking at this, we can the Irish bias in all its glory. Irish-trained runners have more than twice the strike rate of their counterparts trained in UK. Moreover, they've enjoyed a 55p in the £ difference in their returns, and a clear differential between the A/E indices.

In recent years their stranglehold has got stronger and stronger. Below shows the number of Irish wins by 5-year groups:

These figures are skewed inasmuch as the last five years have seen a big increase in the number of Irish horses travelling across. However, the win strike rate for Irish runners in the five years from 2008 to 2012 was 6.8%, whereas in the past five years (2018 to 2022) it has been 9.7%. So the Irish are sending more runners than they did more than a decade ago, and are winning on average more often. That, obviously, is a potent combination.

Indeed, Irish runners have outperformed UK runners in terms of win strike rate in the last ten festivals starting from 2013 as the graph below neatly illustrates.

The UK runners did close the gap in 2022, after a dreadful 2021. Will they be able to get any closer this year? Only time will tell, but you have to expect the Irish to come out on top overall once more.

Grade 1 Races

For the final segment of this article I want to have a brief look at Grade 1 races. These races comprise 50% of the 28 Festival contests and, in the last 15 years, they have accounted for roughly the same percentage of all the Festival contests (some of the newer races being upgraded during the review period).

The betting market comes under the spotlight first.

Market Factors in Cheltenham Festival Grade 1 Races

I have split the prices as I did earlier in the article and here are the Grade 1 only figures:

The data show a poor record for odds-on runners, but in general short- to mid-range prices do quite well. The cut off price looks to be at 14/1 – at this price and bigger Grade 1 runners have performed poorly. Strike rates are below what is the 14/1+ norm for all National Hunt races and losses have been significant.

If we look at market position data instead, clear favourites in Grade 1 races have just edged into profit, albeit by only £6.77 (ROI +3.6%); backing ALL runners in the top four in the betting would have yielded a profit of £55.24 (ROI +6.8%).

LTO performance in Cheltenham Festival Grade 1 Races

One group of runners to avoid in Grade 1 races seems to be those that ran relatively modestly or poorly last time out. Horses that finished 5^th or worse on their prep run have accounted for just eight winners from 282 runners (SR 2.8%) for a hefty BSP loss of £129.01 (ROI -45.8%). Meanwhile, last day winners have secured 141 wins from 1200 runners (SR 11.8%). They, too, made a loss but nowhere near as severe, at -£50.53 (ROI -4.2%).

LTO Race Class

A look next at race class on their previous start (all Cheltenham Grade 1 runners).

There is a sliding scale of strike rates as you would expect. Horses that raced outside Graded/Listed company have a poor record.

If we focus only on LTO winners, it is interesting that each LTO Graded category made a small individual profit to BSP, as did those who won a Listed contest.

LTO course

In terms of the course Grade 1 Cheltenham Festival entries ran at last time, Irish courses have again outperformed UK ones. This time around I have grouped all courses in each country for the comparison:

It is no surprise to see horses that ran in Ireland LTO coming out on top in terms of strike rate, returns and A/E indices. There is, however, one Irish course where caution might be advised, and that is Gowran Park. Just 2 winners from 90 runners in the last 15 years prepped there, with losses amounting to over 88p in the £.

Gender of Horse (LTO winners only)

We saw earlier that LTO winners that were female had a better strike rate than males, as well as proving profitable. Focusing on Grade 1 races only, this pattern is replicated once more:

A strike rate of close to 1 in 5 is excellent and female LTO winners have secured a profit in Grade 1 races of £66.94 (ROI +85.8%). Hence any female running this year at Cheltenham who won last time out might be a horse to consider as a betting opportunity.

Irish runners versus UK runners

It is abundantly clear from what we have seen to date that, in general, Irish-trained runners outperform those trained in the UK at the Cheltenham Festival. From the LTO course (by country) figures we can see that this is also the case in Grade 1 races (as most of the runners that ran in Ireland last time are Irish-based). What I would like to share is the number of Irish wins in Grade 1 races broken down by year:

The last ten years (from 2013 onwards) have seen Irish runners dominate these events more and more. Indeed, in the last two years we have witnessed double figure victories and, considering there were only 14 Grade 1 races in each of 2021 and 2022, this is mightily impressive (or concerning, if you're a British-based racing administrator, trainer or owner). To spell it out, in the most recent two Cheltenham Festivals, Irish runners have secured 22 wins compared with just six for the UK.

Key Takeaways

Before winding down, here are some of the key stats I suggest you keep in mind:

The betting market is a good guide. Clear favourites are reasonable value in all races including Grade 1 contests. Focusing attention on horses priced 6/1 or shorter should give a sporting chance of making a profit. In Grade 1 races avoiding horses priced 14/1 or bigger will usually save you some cash.
Irish runners are likely to outperform their UK counterparts. This is especially probable in Grade 1 races. The trainers Henry de Bromhead, Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins have good records with favourites.
Female horses have a good record when following up a win last time. This is true even in Grade 1 contests.
A prep run at Leopardstown, Naas, Navan or Thurles has provided good profits over the past 15 years.
Last time out Grade 1 winners are generally decent value.
In Grade 1 races it looks best to avoid horses that finished 5^th or worse in their final prep.

Hopefully this article has offered some good general guidance to follow, with the hope that it will find a winner or two along the way. This is my last article before Cheltenham, so good luck, and I'll see you on the other side with some early thoughts for the 2023 flat campaign!

- Dave R

2023 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 15th March 2023)

27 February 2023/in Cheltenham Festival, Cheltenham Festival Stats/by Andy Newton

Each day of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival for you!

The 'day two' feature is the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase - a race trainer Willie Mullins won for the first time in 2022!

Cheltenham Festival Trends

Wednesday 15th March (Old Course & Cross Country)

1.30 - Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 5f ITV

2022 Winner: SIR GERHARD (8/11 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

16 of the last 18 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
6 of the last 9 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
12 of the last 14 winners came from the top two-rated on BHA ratings
18 of the last 22 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
22 of the last 28 winners won last time out
27 of the last 28 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
The Irish have won 13 of the last 20 (8 of last 9)
Horses rated 150+ do well
11 of the last 14 winners had won a Graded Novice Hurdle
23 of the last 28 winners (including last 11) had won at least one bumper race
16 of the last 17 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
10 of the last 12 winners were aged 6
In the last 11 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 21 of the 33 top 3 places
22 of the last 24 were NH bred
16 of the last 24 had won a graded race before
Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (8 of the last 12 had won an Irish Point)
Respect Willie Mullins – 5 winners in last 15 years
Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 5

Negatives….

Only 2 winners aged older than 6 has won since 1974
Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
Horses aged 7 or older are 1 from 57 (since 1988) (but was last year’s winner Sir Gerhard)
Only two of the last 36 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
The last 19 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten
Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten. 0 from 30 in the last 17 years)

2.10 - Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 3m 80y ITV

2022 Winner: L’HOMME PRESSE (9/4 fav)
Trainer – Venetia Williams
Jockey – Charlie Deutsch
UK/Irish: UK-trained

Pluses….

5 of the last 14 winners ran in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase (Mighty Potter won this year’ race)
The last 21 winners had run in a Graded Novice Chase
15 of the last 16 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd in a G1/G2 over fences
25 of the last 28 winners had only one previous season over hurdles
Respect 7 year-olds – won 13 of the last 16 (18 of last 23)
11 of the last 17 winners won last time out
7 of the last 13 winners were beaten on their chase debut
8 of the last 15 winners had won a bumper before
8 of the last 16 favourites won
The last 8 winners were rated 150+
10 of the last 11 winners returned single-figures in the betting
20 of the last 22 winners had run between 3-5 times over fences
Every winner since 1997 had their chase debut the previous year
Irish bred horses are 21 from the last 26
11 of the last 16 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
7 of the last 14 winners were trained in Ireland
Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race (11 of the last 19 between them)
25 of the last 30 were novice hurdling last season
6 of the last 13 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (54 of the last 56 winners had)
12 of the last 16 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year
The last 8 winners came from the top 3 in the betting market

Negatives….

No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
Avoid horses that had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
Just 2 of the last 23 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
No winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26^th Dec) have won gone onto win this race
French bred horses are 1-from-39 (last 16 years, but last year’s winner L’Homme Presse was a French-bred)
The Tizzard yard are 0-from-10 over the last 11 years
Avoid unbeaten horses (only 3 of the last 23 winners)
Mares are currently 0-from-11 in the race
Horses in headgear have a poor record

2.40 - Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 5f ITV

2022 Winner: COMMANDER OF FLEET (50/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Shane Fitzgerald
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

12 of the last 18 were 2^nd season hurdlers
18 of the last 22 winners raced less than 10 times over hurdles
10 of the last 13 winners had run at the Festival before (8 had top 4 finish)
10 of the last 14 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
9 of the last 14 winners were rated in the 140’s
14 of the last 23 winners aged 6 or 7
9 of the last 13 winners DIDN’T win last time out
12 of the last 17 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
21 of the last 28 winners won earlier that season
Respect JP McManus-owned runners
Respect trainers Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (7 wins in last 13 years)
10 of the last 21 winners were French-Bred
15 of the last 29 won last time out
Respect Irish-trained runners (7 of the last 14)
Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (12 of last 14 winners)
15 of the last 18 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
Trainer Gordon Elliott is 3 from 12
5 year-olds do well from the small % that have run (win and place)
The last 4 winners wore headgear

Negatives….

Just one winning favourite in the last 19 years (2020)
Only 4 winners since 2000 had run in 10+ hurdles races
Horses aged 10+ are just 3 from 308 to even place since 1999
Just 5 winners since 2000 aged 8+
Horses rated 150+ don’t have an overall great record, although the 2019 winner was rated 151 and 2020 winner was 152
Willie Mullins won the race in 2018 and had the second in 2019, but overall has a bad record – 47 runners – just two placed inside the top 2 (1 from 44 since 2010

3.30 - Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 99y ITV

2022 Winner: ENERGUMENE
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

13 of the last 22 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
4 of the last 10 winners won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
24 of the last 38 had won at the Festival before
Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 11 of the last 23 between them
Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 11
28 of the last 36 winners aged between 7-9
14 of the last 21 winners won last time out
17 of the last 20 winners had run that calendar year
39 of the last 41 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
16 of the last 23 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
8 of the last 16 winners were French-bred
12 of the last 20 winners were second season chasers
16 of the last 18 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
20 of the last 24 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
16 of the last 23 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase
7 of the last 12 Arkle winners (previous season) to run have won
Past champions do well – 13 horses have won the CC more than once

Negatives….

Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 39 years
Just 1 winner in last 18 had run 4+ times that season
Horses that didn’t run in that calendar year have a bad record
Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, has just 1 win in the race (Energumene) (1-from-14)
Just 1 of the last 21 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
13 of the last 17 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
Be wary of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977
Dublin Chase winners are currently 0-from-4
Only 3 winners aged 6 or younger in the last 48 years
Just one 11 year-old winner in the last 44 years
5 of the last 7 odds-on favourites have lost
Just one Mare has ever won the race (Put The Kettle On, 2021)

4.10 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m 6f 37y ITV

2022 Winner: DELTA WORK (5/2 fav)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Jack Kennedy
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

The Irish have won 15 of the last 18 runnings
Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
15 of the last 18 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
21 of the last 25 winners came from the top three in the betting
9 of the last 18 ran in the December Cross Country race at Cheltenham
14 of the last 18 winners had run on the course before
Respect jockeys Keith Donoghue (3 wins) and Davy Russell (2 wins)
14 or the last 18 winners were aged 10 or younger
8 of the last 12 winners were aged 8 or 9
Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 12 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 4 of the last 6 runnings
7 winners since 2005 owned by JP McManus
10 of the last 18 winners had run in the NH Chase before
5 of the last 8 winners were owned by the Gigginstown Stud House
The last 7 winners wore headgear
8 of the last 10 winners wore a tongue-tie

Negatives….

Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record, but last year’s winner (Delta Work) was running for the first time over the X-Country course
Just 3 of the last 13 winners won their last race
Horses aged 7 or younger are only 3 from 100, but the 2020 winner was 6
Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 16
Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 13

4.50 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 62y ITV

2022 Winner: GLOBAL CITIZEN
Trainer – Ben Pauling
Jockey – Kielan Woods
UK/Irish: UK-trained

Pluses….

7 of the last 9 winners carried 11st or more
16 of the last 19 winners had run at the Festival before
8 of the last 19 winners ran in the previous renewal
Irish have won 4 of the last 10 runnings
9 of the last 13 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
10 of the last 14 winners novices or second season chasers
11 of the last 17 winners aged between 6-8
13 of the last 19 winners were aged 8 or older
Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
Paul Nicholls has won 4 of the last 19
Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 11 placed)
11 of the last 12 winners were rated at least 138
5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
Novices have won 6 of the last 14 runnings
5 of the last 8 winners won after a 91+ day break
9 of the last 12 winners were rated between 138-147
10 of the last 12 winners rated between 138-150
7 of the last 9 winners carried 11st or more in weight
20 of the last 23 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences

Negatives….

Horses aged 10+ are just 3 wins from the last 27 runnings, but last year’s winner was a 10 year-old
Horses that last ran 45 days or more ago have seen just 8 winners since 1990
Last time out winners are just 1 from last 16
Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 34 since 2005
Only 2 of the last 18 winners were favourites
Just 2 winners since 2000 had run in more than 12 chases
Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record

5.30 - Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1) 2m 87y RTV

2022 Winner: FACILE VEGA (15/8 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

28 of the last 30 had won last time out (all of last 19)
23 of the last 30 winners trained in Ireland
Respect Irish-trained runners (23 from 39)
21 of the last 30 came from the top 6 in the betting
23 of the last 30 were Irish-bred
11 of the last 22 winners were second season horses
16 of the last 17 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
19 of the last 30 winners aged 5 years-old
19 of the last 21 had their debut runs in Ireland
12 of the last 20 had been beaten in a race before
6 of the last 13 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
Respect Willie Mullins (12 winners) – also had first three in 2018 and first and second in 2020 and 2021
The Irish lead the British 24-7 in the race history
Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 6 runnings
11 of the last 20 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
Mares are 3-19 in the last 18 runnings
6 of the last 7 winners had run in February
3 of the last 4 winners owned by Cheveley Park Stud

Negatives….

Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
Just 2 winners failed to win last time out
Just 2 of the last 12 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
Only 4 of the last 12 winners were won by UK-based trainers
4 year-olds are 1 from 65 since 2000 (Cue Card)
Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race

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Betting the Breeders’ Cup Rollercoaster

8 November 2022/in Breeders' Cup, Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

The Breeders' Cup action on the tracks at Keeneland was, barring the high class procession of Flightline in the Classic, fiercely contested and highly emotionally charged. So, too, was betting the races; and, for this punter at least, it was a white knuckle roller coaster of a weekend. Allow me to elaborate...

A feature of playing big meetings is the availability of futures - or ante post, if you prefer - markets: more generous prices offered ahead of time when there is less certainty about which horses will run, what form they will be in, and how the races will set up. In the days leading up to the event, I had what the latest markets suggested was a solid value book and, importantly, had largely dodged the dreaded no shows.

Alas, that luck didn't hold with Laurel River getting scratched from the Dirt Mile the day before. 7/1 about a 3/1 shot is decent; 7/1 about a non-runner is, well, not decent. That's the futures game in a nutshell right there.

To Friday, and five two-year-old contests, three of them on the turf. How would the Europeans fare? And how would the portfolio hold up?! The opening Juvenile Turf Sprint would offer a tentative answer to both questions.

Love Reigns had been available at 8/1 a few days prior to race day - highlighted in this post as a likely shortener - and was sent off the 3.14/1 favourite for Wesley Ward, seeking a fourth straight win in the race; it's only been on the card for five years! That one broke only OK but couldn't run with the British speedsters who, led by Mischief Magic, finished 1-2-4-5. I'd had little bets on a few US horses (they'd won all four prior renewals) and they're mostly still running... I did nick a couple of quid with Dramatised's fine run but neither she nor any other was a match for Charlie Appleby's colt.

Next came the Juvenile Fillies and a contention that the Alcibiades, run over the same course and distance four weeks prior, was the key race. There, Wonder Wheel beat Chop Chop by a rapidly diminishing nose, with Raging Sea third. Chop Chop was the bet and 6/1 was secured (having flagged her at 8's and been too tardy to actually get any of that). She went off a little bigger than 9/4 but had no chance, getting a five wide transit throughout and eased off in the straight, with Wonder Wheel winning again and Raging Sea again finishing third. The winner was impressive under different tactics - she was supposed to be front rank but missed the bus! - and would probably have won anyway.

Staying with the two-year-old fillies but on the grass now, in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, it was time for Europe to try to win their third renewal on the occasion of the fifteenth running. Not a strong record, but Aidan O'Brien had peppered the target in spite of never having won the race. I'd fielded against the British and Irish, with their very poor race record, and had some fancy prices about a clutch of American runners. It was money back on G Laurie after she scratched the day before; and I was cheering 20/1 Free Look or 40/1 Pleasant Passage to get in front.

We all know what Meditate did: she was much the best and dominated in the straight. But with 13/2 or so Pleasant Passage running second, and 15/2 Free Look less than a length behind her in fifth, it was another close but no cigar event for this punter.

After two second places at decent prices, and a favourite taken at 6/1 who was the 'right answer with the wrong trip', it wasn't going especially well. And it would be going worse after the Juvenile...

In that penultimate Breeders' Cup Friday race, I'd played a 'no brainer' double finishing in the Mile with Modern Games and starting with Bob Baffert's Cave Rock. I feared the inside drawn Hurricane J as a pace spoiler and, as it turned out, was right to because that one ensured Cave Rock - sent off just less than 1/2 - did a tap more than ideal in chasing the lead. As they entered the straight, up loomed east coast champ Forte to run the jolly down.

Another second and it was starting to smart. At least this time, I picked up a few shekels for the place part on National Treasure, the second of four horses flagged in the 'bet these now' post from a week or so prior. He returned 8/1 and only 1/2 for the 'show' (i.e. to finish 3rd or better).

Finally on the opening day we had the Juvenile Turf, with the raiders bidding for a clean sweep on the sod and me bidding to get things back on track. This time I'd swung at an Appleby - not the only one across the weekend as will become apparent - in the form of progressive Autumn Stakes winner Silver Knott. In my quest for value, I'd merely supplanted big prices on this occasion, with the exception of 8/1 win only on Silver K.

Naturally, he found just a dash of traffic in his daring rail run while Victoria Road charmed himself through the eye of a needle between horses to prevail by a nose. The four remaining plays in the race, three of them over-staked most likely, are currently asking for directions to the jam stick somewhere towards the end of the back straight.

At the end of day one with the UK books I'd staked £586 and returned a skimpy £129.48. Meanwhile, in tote action, I had bought a $500 betting voucher and converted that into $708 by close of play, mainly thanks to a patriotic (of sorts) $20 exacta Victoria Road over Silver Knott; so a little more than £250 down overall on Friday. Far from a drama at this point, and I at least had some betting tokens for day two, as well as an equally healthy looking portfolio for the Saturday.

Breeders' Cup Saturday is a goliath of a race day: nine main event races bookended by two or three undercard heats make for an eleven or, as in this case, twelve race card. Even just focusing on the Cup stuff, which was the case for me, is a momentous undertaking. I was up early - everyone needed to be with a first post time of 10.30am - and had scribbled my tote plays into a notebook.

These are them, and I placed them all prior to the first race, something I've never done before and which turned out to be a godsend.

Total stakes were $1173 rather than $965 due to a) backing Cody's Wish for fifty bucks, and b) immediately recycling the return on that on two losers in the FM Turf. Sigh. Anyway, we're getting ahead of ourselves.

Saturday's curtain raiser was the Filly and Mare Sprint, a race in which I've had plenty of success backing bombs down the years and, with a ton of early speed in the pre-entries, I was excited to swing big again. But, when first Letruska and then Hot Peppers - both out and out need the lead types - were scratched, it notably diluted the front end heat. We still had Slammed, Lady Rocket and Echo Zulu, each of which had led or been within half a length at the first call in three of their last four starts, so the bomb play remained viable to some degree.

The whole position hung on a contention that favoured Midnight Olive might i) be over-estimated and ii) burn herself out chasing a too hot tempo. Long story slightly shorter, it just didn't play out that way: the first half went in 22.10, 44.89, which is quick enough; but the speed held up and Olive showed plenty of class to win by daylight.

Tote tickets with big-priced deep closers on top went on the spike. As did my only ante post play, on the sole Japanese runner, Chain Of Love, who, after a taking late rally both in the Dubai Golden Shaheen and in Japan last time, showed absolutely nada here. The other two deep closers - Obligatory and Chi Town Lady - did what they do but always at a respectful distance (respectively 14.5 and 16 lengths off the front at the first call!)

Having projected the opener completely wrong, I then managed to totally overlook Caravel, winner of the Turf Sprint, when doing form previews of 'all' runners. This was a potent combination of embarrassing and annoying, not that she'd have featured highly on my shortlist save for the good looking track and trip win last time out. I certainly wouldn't have played her 'on top', so that's something, I guess.

In the end, as well as ante post plays Arrest Me Red (ran fine, not good enough) and a double kicking off with Golden Pal (dreadfully dull effort), I added a few day of race darts including the Appleby duo and a defensive play on Flotus at about a million to one on the board. Also limped in with a very narrow Pick 4 guess. Limped back out again about 55.77 seconds later - in fairness, so did most other people who probably staked more into that pool than me.

Chazza's Creative Force closed well into third without ever threatening the (pretty impressive) winner; Emaraaty Ana ran another stormer in second and Highfield Princess performed perfectly well in fourth. The $100 US tote chip on her was lost but she was, like most of my tickets, value when comparing available odds.

The Turf Sprint was the only grass race won by the home team all weekend as it transpired, British runners finishing 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 6th in what was still a strong non-winning display.

"System going well, send more money" was the summary at this point. And, in the Dirt Mile, some respite. A lazy, chalky bullseye on story horse Cody's Wish - see below - was a relative shot in the arm to at least stem the flow: nice little cocktail of mixed metaphor there...

There's no doubt Flightline delivered the most powerful racing performance of the weekend. But was there anything better than this?

A Storybook Ending: Cody's Wish and 16-Year-Old Namesake Win at the Breeders' Cuphttps://t.co/rTbcwwIKv1 pic.twitter.com/Fd93rJw0Bq

— Danonymous Man (@DanonymousMan) November 7, 2022

Cody's Wish was given a measured ride to out-finish the extremely busy and admirably tough Cyberknife who went down fighting. I'd had a good looking investment on late nonner, Laurel River, and my wise guy exacta selections - one of which was the other horse I backed in Britain, Simplification - took the wrong course, or something.

Check out Cody's on the jockey cam

Onwards, as is relentlessly the case through the top class nonet of wagering conundrums (wasn't sure if it should be 'conundra', so googled and discovered a very fun - if utterly nerdy - answer here) on day 2 at BC.

[Aside: Six-eight Friday/Saturday would work so much better, but we don't really need another juvenile race - dirt sprint?! - which would only make it seven-nine in any case; and moving one of the older horse Saturday races would be incongruent, so guess we're staying like this for now]

It was the Filly & Mare Turf next with its host of Euro entries. I was as cool as a refrigerated cucumber on the chances of the Ballydoyle 'T' brace, Tuesday and Toy, but all around the vibes - ah, yes, the vibes - were strong, especially about the Oaks winner. My contention had been she wasn't needing a bigger than quarter mile drop in trip; the counter - made by, clearly, smarter judges than me - was that she was crying out for it. Turned out she was. Luckily for me, one of the shroods was Neil, with whom I'd chewed the form cud for much of the weekend. His bet of the day, I couldn't ignore her, especially at 6/1 in a place.

It is, as they say, far better to be lucky than good. Having been neither heretofore, I borrowed someone else's good for ten minutes and caught some luck.

In point of fact, I'd been good enough to back second-placed In Italian each way at 7/1 - she went off 3/1 - and lucky enough that she made all bar the last fifty yards of the running. But the same tote board tempted me into a rapid release of my Cody coin, first with $100 on Nashwa at 4/1 (her price then proceeded to crash to a little better than 5/2, at which she'd have been no bet) and then $50 Above The Curve who ran no race this time. In the finish, with a $5 exacta returning $110, this was slightly better than a scratch race overall. But, left to my own devices, it would have been a car crash. Jeez.

The middle leg on Saturday, race five, was the Sprint, and the first of two coronations. Or so we/I thought. Jackie's Warrior had been much the best in the division all season, figured to get an easy lead, had had legit excuses (stamina, injury) when failing at odds on the past two Breeders' Cups, and, well, he'd just win, wouldn't he?

One of my learnings from the weekend - which I should already know - is that, when it looks like one horse will get a soft lead, it's information that every rider in the race will be aware of; as such, the chance of such an eventuality diminishes, and the price needs to reflect that scope for something different to play out. 4/5 is not a price that permits much uncertainty at all, and so my third - and, mercifully, final - punchy short odds double was waved adios as the #7 horse, Super Ocho, two boxes inside Jackie's Warrior, dished it up to the champ-elect on the front end through five of the six eighths of a mile. Then along came the big improver this season, Elite Power, with a strong finish to roll on by. JW was sufficiently cooked that the octogenarian (OK, unfair, he's eight, not 80) C Z Warrior also shuffled his Zimmer frame past in the final strides.

This was a hideous bet for me, coupling a non-runner and a pair of shorties both of whom failed to make the place position let alone the win. The first two home were nowhere on my exotics either so, head shaking like a sideways Churchill pooch, we pushed on pronto.

Well into the second half, then, and I've yet to have a winning opinion of my own. I was feeling pretty down in the chops by this point, and I didn't really have anything to cheer in the Mile after Cave Rock had done for my value double with Modern Games. I'd backed Annapolis at 10's because I felt he had to be shorter by the off, and I had some tote action firmly centred on Modern G. I meant to back Ivar but didn't, which would have been annoying assuming the books had paid four places and a relief if they paid three. And I played a bit of Order of Australia and Kinross at his ridiculous US tote price of 9.39/1: I didn't like him at 3/1 back home but this was a bit insulting.

More losers, more self-flagellation and wagering-wise I was in what felt like as big a hole in a couple of days as I'd been since some reckless punting ventures of many moons ago. I'd done about $750 on the tote to this point, but had $250 left of those wagers placed before racing; but my ante post book was in tatters: £1300 staked, £600 returned. Writing that now, it's not nearly as terrible as I'd perceived, but when you're caught up in a really fast-moving moment like Breeders' Cup Saturday lucid thinking can fail even the best of us - and certainly me.

There were three races left and I needed a minor miracle to get out breathing, or so I thought without the benefit of the bean counting in the stanza above. It was the Distaff next, and I'd made a stinky each way play on Malathaat at 3/1 () believing that the eight pre-entries would reduce to seven with one filly claiming first preference elsewhere. If ever a bet deserved to get whacked, it was this one. But, with so many on the spike that arguably deserved better, the perversity of the betting deities was on show yet again.

In the best finish of the meeting - a three-way shootout separated by nostrils - Malathaat just edged Blue Stripe with Clairiere rounding out the podium positions. The winner paid 2.88/1 compared to my 3/1. I mean, I'd take it if you offered me it on every 3/1 ticket struck, but... With a couple of place bob on Clairiere each way at 14/5, too, this felt massive. Again, it felt bigger than it was. Such can be the heightened sensitivity of a marathon punting sesh.

Additionally, I had taken a couple of wimpy Pick 3's starting in the Distaff, rolling through the Turf and ending in the Classic. This is the losing $1 version, and I played a $3 version with the same horses in legs 1 and 2, and the big guy in the Classic.

In fairness, they may have been narrow but they left well touted Nest off the Distaff leg, and that helped. If not yet quite back in the game, it was at least looking a little less like a motorway pile up and veering towards a shattered headlight, to continue with the utterly unsuitable vehicular metaphor.

But then came something approaching divine intervention in the Breeders' Cup Turf. I knew from midsummer I wanted to be with Charlie in anything beyond a mile on the lawns, and I'd seen a quote mid-September that Nations Pride and Rebel's Romance were slated to get on the 'plane. In their final preps, both took the eye in differing ways: Nations battered his rivals at Aqueduct while Rebel's showed a rarely-seen-in-distance-racers turn of pace before flattening (or maybe idling) in a German Group 1; he still won there. Both were 12/1. Well, I went and backed 'em though I wasn't allowed much. Fair enough, I suppose. A week before, I had a bit of a saver on War Like Goddess, and before racing began I'd played boldly in exactas and trifectas with four Euro horses, the Appleby pair as 'A' picks on top.

It went really rather better than anything to that point. And thank crikey for that.

After drawing £720 I was now in front on the ante post book, a scarcely plausible position from just an hour ago. As well as that, I'd cashed a $10 exacta with Rebel's Romance on top of Stone Age, another horse I was against when doing the form but drawn to by 'the vibes'. The exacta paid $69.87 for a dollar, so $698.70 for ten. I'd played some $5 trifectas with Charlie over Aidan/Charlie over Aidan/Charlie. Not quite, but could conceivably have put the Goddess underneath: it came up $175.27 for each 50 cent unit. Woulda coulda shoulda.

Emotions were up and up by now. Some people say you shouldn't get emotional when betting, but not me. I want to be moved by both the action and the outcome. I want to feel good and, yes, I want to feel bad; that's the game: we need the bad beats to give us emotional context for when it goes our way, to elevate the sense of joy, relief, excitement, vindication. That's why we bet. It's why I bet at any rate. Those who use an algo to nick a few quid... well good luck to them but what a soulless existence.

Here's the Rebel, reprising that late gear change and getting me boisterous in the process:

And so to the climax of the meeting, the Breeders' Cup Classic, and a fella named Flightline. I had those two Pick 3's live into the Classic and there's little doubt the dollar versions were going to pay more than the three buck single through the jolly. I did also have a couple of weirdo bits and pieces staked a while back, including a non-runner, a forgotten Ky Derby winner, and some smaller staked each way filth; but I was only rooting for one man here, Flavien Prat, Flightline's jockey.

The race had a clear shape to it - as clear as any race can given the comments made in the Sprint section above - and this one went with the script: Life Is Good, an extremely classy if one-dimensional front end brute, surged on with Flightline tailgating on the snaff. At the top of the stretch, with Irad Ortiz throwing the lot at Life Is Good, Prat asked his lad to lengthen: the verdict was instant.

Flightline bounded away, Life Is Good a fading shape in the rear view mirrors; the gallant trailblazer eventually eased out to fifth place, surpassed in the final quarter by all of Olympiad, Taiba and Rich Strike respectively. The final margin of victory was eight and a quarter lengths, taking Flightline's six-race career aggregate winning margin to 71 lengths! It's just a shame we won't see any more of him as he feels like he's only really getting started.

Epicenter, second betting choice, unfortunately sustained an injury, which has been successfully operated on since and, though he has been retired from racing, the prognosis is good that this super-consistent three-year-old - winner of the Grade 1 Travers and second in two Triple Crown races including the Kentucky Derby - will be able to take up stallion duties in due course.

After the Turf, I was able to watch this almost exclusively as a sporting event rather than a wagering one, and that was just great. I cashed the Pick 3, which didn't pay much ($123) but was a welcome contribution to the bottom line. In terms of that bottom line, buying a voucher and then keeping most winning tickets until the end (I did cash and 're-invest' the Cody chip) makes it easy to track profit and loss. I bought a $500 voucher on Friday, topped it up with $300 before racing on Saturday and didn't pay with 'folding' for a bet thereafter. So the $868 and pennies I cashed the winning tickets in for after the last represented a most improbable - and waffery-thin - positive outcome. Likewise on the UK books P&L:

Having published detailed thoughts on every race here, it was more the ignominy of sending so many geegeez readers inadvertently in the wrong direction that smarted most. Obviously, I bet within my parameters of comfort - though Saturday did take me away from the centre of that zone - but what is never comfortable for me is when I have publicly shared the name of a horse I think is worth betting: it's pressure I can't handle, truth be told. With luck, at least some of you will have found a way to the pay window through the weekend. [Regardless of how the results go, it's always the same - large - amount of labour to work through the form. Sometimes the effort is rewarded, often now. That's how it is, eh?]

I very much hope you enjoyed the Breeders' Cup show, especially the brilliant performances by the Euro squad - not just the winners but 'we' laid siege to the places as well - and that boyo in the Classic.

Matt

post script

A few things I learned, or about which I was reminded:

Short-priced horses habitually get beaten at the Breeders' Cup because the races are so deep. Doubling them up doesn't really make sense. [Note to self]
European horses seem to love Keeneland: they're 12/20 in the three Breeders' Cups here, the 6/7 this year bettering 4/7 in 2020 and 2/6 in 2015.
Betting race to race is emotionally challenging. The very best thing I did was to strike the majority of bets before the first. Whilst conceding the chance to scout the prices pre-race, it took emotion out of the thought process (but not the race watching process), leading to more reasoned wagers.
A little knowledge is a dangerous thing, especially in pursuit of a late night weekend winner!

COMPETITION TIME

I managed to bring a few souvenirs back with me and thought they'd make a nice raffle prize. As they say across the pond, here's what I got...

Click on the image to view full size

- Programmes from both Friday's and Saturday's meetings
- A Daily Racing Form for Friday's card
- Some Kentucky 'horse country' brochures
- A Breeders' Cup lanyard
- A Breeders' Cup tote bag
- Uncashed $1 win bet on Flightline

Plus three runners up prizes of an uncashed $1 win bet on Flightline

To be in with a chance to win, simply go here and enter your name and email. These details will ONLY be used to contact you for postal address if you're a winner. One entry per person. Duplicate entries will be disqualified. Good luck!

Matt

Breeders’ Cup 2022: Four to back now

28 October 2022/in Breeders' Cup, Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

This time next week the first five, of fourteen, Breeders' Cup races will be upon us. Friday is juvenile day, with nine older horse Championship races following on Saturday, and the action - both on track and in the betting - will be feverish.

One of the beauties of the Breeders' Cup is the convergence of US and European (and sometimes Japanese and South American) form, and the differences of opinion that British and American bettors have. With that in mind, what follows are four horses that look likely to shorten from their current prices and represent a bit of value a week from now.

Love Reigns (Juvenile Turf Sprint)

Wesley Ward has won this for the past three years and has just a single runner this time around. He puts his faith in Love Reigns, a fast starter who won over course and distance on her debut. She was a fine fourth to re-opposing Dramatised at Royal Ascot but didn't quite see out that demanding straight five with an uphill finish. Since returning to America, she's won again over the turning five and half furlong range in spite of taking a lead to the first turn.

All four winners of the Juvenile Turf Sprint have led all the way and, while she does face a couple of possible pace contenders in The Platinum Queen and Tyler's Tribe, she is likely to be very popular with the American betting public.

The Platinum Queen represents Britain and she's a fast filly, as demonstrated by her win in the Prix de l'Abbaye in receipt of chunks of weight against elders; but she has never raced around a turn before and that's a different ball game. It doesn't mean she can't handle a turn but her current price implies she definitely will. She only definitely might!

8/1 Love Reigns looks on the big side.

National Treasure (Juvenile)

Love him or hate him, Bob Baffert has a stranglehold on the juvenile colt dirt division, and is doubly represented here. He saddles the strong favourite, Cave Rock, who is unbeaten in three and stretched out to this trip for a comfortable five length Grade 1 win last time. And he also saddles the less exposed National Treasure, who chased Cave Rock home in that G1, the American Pharoah at Santa Anita.

There is a good chance that Cave Rock is just much the best, but even then something has to finish second and third, and National Treasure's Beyer speed figure is already the clear second pick in the race. He is entitled to improve on what will only be his third career start and was able to rate the pace set by Cave Rock meaning he's versatile in terms of run style. A horse called Hurricane J is unlikely to trouble the judge but he could be a pace spoiler for the favourite early on, and we don't know how the Baffert beast will cope with early contention: it might weaken his ability in the stretch.

Regardless, National Treasure looks over-priced in an each way context at 12/1 in a place.

Malathaat (Distaff)

Malathaat is only 3/1 but she perhaps deserves to be favourite for the Distaff. She's a dual Grade 1 scorer this season, has the highest speed figure in the field (jointly with Clairiere) and has never been out of the first three in seven tries at the nine furlong trip. She's unbeaten in three at host track Keeneland, including two at the trip, one of which was last time out by more than five lengths in a Grade 1. A half length third in last year's race, she's upped her game a length since then and - if she doesn't get too far back early in what might not be an especially rapidly run race - is the one to beat.

She's available at 3/1 with three places each way with one firm, even though of the eight pre-entries is already stated as having her first preference in another race.

Taiba (Classic)

This could simply be the Flightline show, that unbeaten colt recording some off the scale numbers this season in totally savaging his rivals. And I hope it will be just that, because he might be the best since Secretariat, which is to say the best for fifty years. His win in the Pacific Classic last time was preposterous: it was his first try at the Classic trip of ten furlongs and stamina was supposedly a doubt. He won that Grade 1 by 19 1/4 lengths with the Dubai World Cup winner in second and another seven lengths back to a legit G1 horse in third!

He's an absolute monster but... he has been fragile, as his five race - all carefully spaced apart - career implies. And his trainer, John Sadler, has had some shocking fortune in the Breeders' Cup: having saddled bundles of fancied horses, his sole triumph from 54 BC starters is the 2018 Classic winner, Accelerate. This will be Flightline's second venture outside southern California, an Achilles heel for many of his trainer's Breeders' Cup runners in the past. He was his least assured - though still much the best - on his previous foray out of state, in the Met Mile at Belmont. In fairness, it's unlikely even Sadler's bad ju-ju will stop this lad; but, again, something has to run second and third.

In that context, Taiba, another out of the Baffert barn, looks likely to shorten. A three-year-old unraced at two, Taiba is by rock hard Classic winner Gun Runner, and his sole heavy defeat was in the massive field Kentucky Derby. He was also a head second in the G1 Haskell before stepping forward to win by three lengths in the Penn Derby, a favoured Baffert Classic prep.

His price - 12/1 - is made mainly by Flightline of course, but also by a horse called Life Is Good, a need-the-lead speedball who has only raced beyond nine furlongs once, when failing to get home in the Dubai World Cup at this mile and a quarter range. In fairness, he's tough on the lead but I imagine he will be wilting in the stretch.

Epicenter - conditioned by Gun Runner's trainer, Steve Asmussen - looks more legitimate for the frame. He's a strong stayer and will be unhurried while the fireworks are lit ahead of him; but he cannot fill out second and third spots, and he's more exposed than Taiba (ten lifetime starts vs five). It doesn't look an especially deep Classic beyond those mentioned so, while there's an absolute superstar in there, 12/1 Taiba looks an each way multiple play on a potential shortener.

Good luck.

Matt

Breeders’ Cup 2022 Trends

26 October 2022/in Breeders' Cup/by Matt Bisogno

Breeders' Cup Trends for Keeneland 2022

This will be the 39th renewal of the great transatlantic horseracing shemozzle that is the Breeders' Cup and, while some races are a lot newer than that, most have a historical profile worth noting. What follows are some observations based on what we've seen previously in the hope that it might help to predict what will happen in Keeneland on the first weekend in November.

Click on any highlighted race title below to move straight to that event.

Contents

FRIDAY 2

7.00pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (5f, Turf) 2

Key Trends (4 BC renewals to date) 2

7.40pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (1m½f, Dirt) 2

Key Trends (38 renewals to date) 2

8.20pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (1m, Turf) 3

Key Trends (14 renewals to date) 3

9.00pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (1m ½f, Dirt) 3

Key Trends (38 renewals so far) 3

9.40pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (1m, Turf) 3

Key Trends (15 renewals to date) 3

SATURDAY

3.50pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (7f, Dirt) 4

Key Trends (15 renewals so far) 4

4.29pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (5f, Turf) 4

Key Trends (14 renewals so far) 4

5.10pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (1m, Dirt) 5

Key Trends (15 renewals to date) 5

5.50pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (1m3f, Turf) 5

Key Trends (23 renewals to date) 5

6.30pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Sprint (6f, Dirt) 5

Key Trends (38 renewals to date) 5

7.10pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Mile (1m, Turf) 6

Key Trends (38 renewals to date) 6

7.55pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Distaff (1m1f, Dirt) 6

Key Trends (38 renewals to date) 6

8.40pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Turf (1m4f, Turf) 6

Key Trends (38 renewals to date) 6

9.40pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Classic (1m2f, Dirt) 7

Key Trends (38 renewals so far) 7

FRIDAY

7.00pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (5f, Turf)

Key Trends (4 BC renewals to date)

A newish race, which was run for the first time on the undercard in 2017, and now has full Breeders’ Cup status. Naturally, at this stage trends are thin, so caution is strongly advised.

2017 (undercard) at Del Mar: Euro 1234
2018 US 123 (1st/2nd from wire)
2019 US 1234 (1st/2nd from wire), 2020 US 12 Euro 34 (1st from wire), 2021 US 1345 (1st from wire)
Wes Ward won last three, overall form: 200 in 2018; 149 in 2019; 1500 in 2020; 135 in 2021
First 2 winners unbeaten (1 & 2 prior starts), 2020 winner won LTO/form 221, 2021 winner won LTO/form 2121
All 4 winners led all the way
Winners LTO: '18 1st Listed; '19 1st G3; '20 1st Listed; '21 1st Listed
Best two Euros: '18 3rd/4th; '19 5th/7th; '20 3rd/4th; '21 2nd/6th

7.40pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (1m½f, Dirt)

Key Trends (38 renewals to date)

17 of the last 20 had 3-5 career starts (exceptions, 2 starts, ’07, ’17 & '19)
Last 20, career runs: 2-3/3-8/4-6/5+-3
Layoff: 32/38 were running within 30 days (‘16 winner 35 days off, '21 winner 33 days off); (35/38 5 weeks off or less)
31/38 (82%) had a Grade 1, 2 or 3 win, from c.60% of the runners. 3/7 non-qualifiers placed in Frizette (incl. ’17 winner)
21/27 improved Beyer when racing 7f+ for 1st time (excludes pre-Beyer BC's and winners with no 7f+ form)
90+ Beyer = very strong, 80+ 1 or 2 starts = strong
35/38 were top 4 or less than 4L behind the winner last time out
Favourite is 19/38 (50%)
"Look beyond the obvious when trials were slow", favour lightly raced improver
23/38 (61%) had NOT won at the distance
Baffert not won since 2007

8.20pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (1m, Turf)

Key Trends (14 renewals to date)

US 12 Euro 2
9/12 US winners ran in Miss Grillo or Natalma, ’17/'20 winners exited Jessamine, '19 winner minor Stakes
13/14 finished top 3 or within 1.5L of the winner last time out (exception ran in Miss Grillo)
13/14 won at 1m+ (exception, Flotilla, 1.5L behind in Arc weekend G1)
14/14 finished top 3, or within 1.5L of the winner, in a Stakes race
Frontrunners 3, Prominent 6, Late runners 5
Layoff: 3wks-2 / 4wks-3 / 5wks-5 / 6wks-1 / 7wks-3 ('21 winner off 47 days)
Prior Runs: US winners 2-8; 3-2; 4-1; 5-0; 6-1 / Euro winners 4-1; 5-1
80+ Beyer – 9/12 recorded 81+ (2 others had only 2 starts) / Euro RPR's 114, 106
2 Euro winners ran in G1 races LTO (1st, 1.5L 4th) - Euro^ = G1 LTO
Chad Brown has trained 5 JFT winners (4 in California), last one was 2018. 3rd at 6/1 in 2021
4 of Chad's 5 won the Ms Grillo (2nd in '22 MsG with Free Look)
All US exacta: 5/14 (US 1-3 in '21)

9.00pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (1m ½f, Dirt)

Key Trends (38 renewals so far)

36/38 ran 123 or within 4L of the winner last time out
Prior runs of US winners since 2000: 2-7 (incl 5 in last 9 years)/ 3-5 / 4-6
Look for solid workouts, especially off a longer (35+ day) layoff
Uncoupled entries won in 2010, 2013, 2015, 2021
19 of the last 29 winners posted a new Beyer top LTO
18 of last 26 winners improved their Beyer racing at 7f+ for the first time
Y/N - Previous runs, not what is declared for BC
(s) Synthetic track
Baffert won 5 times, Pletcher & O'Neill twice each

9.40pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (1m, Turf)

Key Trends (15 renewals to date)

Euro 9 US 6 (APO'B 1st Kee 2015, 2nd Kee 2020)
2-6 runs (14/15 had 2 to 5 runs - Prior Starts: 2-2/3-3/4-6/5-3/6-1)
5/6 US won at 1m+, only 3/9 Euro won at 1m
1st-3rd Fav combined only 8 from 45 - 47% winners outside top 3 in betting
15/15 Top 3 LTO or within 2L of winner (ran sharp)
0 Front Runner winners (8 CLOSERS, 6 PROMINENT, 1 MIDFIELD)
7 of the 9 Euro winners plus Hootenanny recorded RPR of 110+; exceptions 108 LTO, 105 LTO
9/9 Euro winners placed in G1/2 LTO, or won lesser stakes; 3 of last 6 Euro winners placed in Dewhurst LTO ('18, '21 winners won G3 LTO)
6/6 US winners had won a Stakes and were placed 123 in all Stakes runs
Euro winners 20-43 days absent (5/8 20 or 21 days); US 20, 34, 34, 35, 49, 68 days absent
Pilgrim Stakes considered a key prep: got 1st win in ’16, 2nd win in '19, 3rd win in '20
APOB 4, C Appleby 4, Gosden 3

SATURDAY
3.50pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (7f, Dirt)

Key Trends (15 renewals so far)

Winner's age: 644544554453335
3yo's 3 from 40 to date; '18 winner 3yo, 20/1; '19 1st/2nd only two 3yo's in the field; '20 winner Gamine 3yo
3yo's won 0 of first 11, and now won 3 of last 4 (sole 3yo well beaten in '21)
14/15 finished in the top 3, or within 3L of the winner, last time (not ’17 winner)
12/15 won at 7f; 6/15 2+ wins at 7f
11/15 won or were 2nd in a G1 ('17 winner 2nd 7f G1 2 years ago, '18 winner 1st G2 LTO only 7f start, '21 winner won G1 a year ago)
TCA at Keeneland is a key prep (albeit over 6f) –
PID Masters (6 1/2f) also key race – not run in '20 or '21 but back in '22, won by Artie's Princess
Surface switch (synth or turf to dirt): 7/15 winners; '18 winner 1stx2 on synths prior to final prep on dirt
Fav 5/15, 2nd fav 2/15, 3rd fav 1/15 ('21 winner). 7/15 4th or lower in the betting

4.29pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (5f, Turf)

Key Trends (14 renewals so far)

9/14 were distance winners (more material when run at 5½f or 6½f, less so at 5f)
Age 3-2; 4-5; 5-3; 6-3; 8-1 (all largely in line with representation)
12/14 winners were top 3 or within 3L of the winner last time out (not ’17 winner)
11/14 had 99+ Beyer or 115+ RPR; 14/14 96+ Beyer or 115+ RPR ('21 winner 96 Beyer)
12/14 had 4+ starts in year ('21 winner 3 starts)
13/14 had a 28+ day layoff
14/14 placed in Graded Stakes (10/14 WON Graded Stakes)
Europeans 1 from 15 so far (Glass Slippers in 2020, 4th-5th-8th in 2021)
Favourite is 5/14
Peter Miller won the three renewals between 2017 and 2019 (including 2x exacta!)
Wesley Ward first BC Turf Sprint win in 2021, from 13 runners to date

5.10pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (1m, Dirt)

Key Trends (15 renewals to date)

12/15 ran in a Grade 1 or 2 last time out (but NOT '19 or '20 winners)
15/15 notched at least one 100+ Beyer in their last two races
9/15 had 5+ runs in the year, 8/14 had 6+ runs in year (not strong trend)
Seasonal run breakdown: 2-1/3-2/4-3/5-1/6-2/7-1/8-2/9-2/10-1
# of runs from 2012: 5-8-4-3-3-9-4-7-2-4
Layoff: 12/15 27-42 days ('18 winner 70 days, '19 winner 20 days)
8/15 'turned back' in distance (2/4 exceptions were Goldencents)
Top 3 favourites: Fav 4/15; 2nd fav 3/15; 3rd fav 1/15 [7/15 outside top 3 in betting]
Age 3-5/4-8/5-1/6-1 = 13/15 aged 3 or 4yo
14/15 had won a Graded Stakes in career
10/15 had won at a mile

5.50pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (1m3f, Turf)

Key Trends (23 renewals to date)

US/import 12, Europe 10, Japan 1 (2021)
8/8 US winners 1st/2nd LTO; 3/4 ex-Euro imports 1st LTO; 1/10 Euro 1st LTO!
Layoff: US/import 10/12 35 days or less; Euro, anything goes!; Japan winner off 65 days
Age: 3-6 (all Euro, including 16, 17 & 19 winners); 4-10; 5-5 (inc '21 Japanese winner); 6 or more-1
Since 2007, Euro 3yo: 4, US: 8, Euro 4yo+: 2, Japan 1 (2021)
21/23 - 4-7 runs this season (other 2 had 3 starts)
9 of 12 US winners had a race at Keeneland that season
Since 2012, Chad Brown 4, Europe 5 (all 11/1 or shorter, 2nd with the fav in 2020 from 4 starters), Japan 1
4 wins for Chad Brown, 3 for Sir Michael Stoute

6.30pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Sprint (6f, Dirt)

Key Trends (38 renewals to date)

2007+, the BC Sprint winners came into the race with a combined 98/195 lifetime win record (50%)
Last 30 winners had at least 50% 1-2 strike rate at 6f
35/38 won a G1-3 that season ('21 winner closing neck 2nd in G2 LTO)
1+ 6f wins AND ran sharp 7f last 12 months a solid recent angle
23 of the last 29 had 2+ 6f wins that season
14 of the last 24 winners were 50%+ lifetime winners
14 of last 18 winners had 6 or fewer seasonal starts ('21 winner had 8 prior starts in first racing season)
21 of last 28 winners showed a bullet workout
28 of last 30 winners notched at least 103 Beyer in same season ('21 winner only 102)
Bob Baffert 5 wins, Peter Miller 2

7.10pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Mile (1m, Turf)

Key Trends (38 renewals to date)

19 of last 20 winners had 4-6 seasonal starts
16/20 winners since 2002 had 2+ mile turf wins (exceptions all Euros)
Repeat winners common (Miesque, Lure, Da Hoss, Goldikova, Wise Dan)
16 of the last 26 were US winners; 7 French-trained (UK/Ire 3 for 85 since 1995, after long blank, wins in '18, '20, '21)
Only Goldikova (x3), Karakontie, Expert Eye, Order of Australia, Space Blues have stemmed US dominance since 2004
9/11 3yo winners were Euros (4 fillies); 12/14 5yo+ winners were US (exception Goldikova #3 & Space Blues)
Euro G1 win important, US any Graded win (Expert Eye, Order of Australia no G1 win)
25 of the last 28 ran 123 last time, or finished within 4L of the winner (Order of Australia an exception)
Career record at 1m of BC Mile winners since 2002: Runs 141, 1st 81 (57%), 2nd 30 (21%)
Thus, the last 20 BC Mile winners had a collective 78% 1-2 record at the distance (Space Blues unraced at exactly a mile)
Only 1 front runner has been 1st or 2nd since 2000 (Smooth Like Strait, 2nd in 2021)
No trainer has won with more than two different horses

7.55pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Distaff (1m1f, Dirt)

Key Trends (38 renewals to date)

29/38 won by 3 or 4yo's ('19 winner 6yo, '20 winner 5yo though missed entire 4yo season, '21 winner 5yo!)
17/38 won by 4yo's (including 10 of the last 20)
37/38 finished top 3 or within 4L of winner last time out
23 of the last 31 winners ran 5-8 times in the year
28/34 1m1f Distaff winners had won at the distance already
Layoff: 29/38 35 days or less ('20 winner off 64 days, '21 winner 86 days!)
26/34 1m1f Distaff winners had won a Grade 1 in same year
The favourite is 16/38 (42% SR)
34/38 had recorded a Beyer of 100+ ('21 winner no Beyer, top RPR of just 99)

8.40pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Turf (1m4f, Turf)

Key Trends (38 renewals to date)

26/27 winners to have raced at the distance had been at least 2nd (Found in 2015 the exception)
Layoff: US 35 days or less ('19 winner off 3 months); Euro any
38/38 aged 3-5yo; 6yo+ 0/59
Euro 3yo's 8; US 3yo's 2 (last one in 1989)
29/38 won G1 that season (8/9 exceptions were Euro, & averaged 12.5/1). US *MUST* have won G1 same season
12/24 Euro winners last ran in the Arc (rarely the 'obvious' one, though Enable doubled up in '18)
Arc winners are 1/7 in same season (Enable first horse to do the double)
8 US winners ran in Joe Hirsch, six of them winning that key prep (??? won 2022)
25/28 since '94 had 3-8 season starts - 3-5; 4 or 5-7; 6 to 8-13
6 of last 10 had 6-8 seasonal runs, though mares Enable won off just 2 runs in '18 & Tarnawa off 3 in '20
Every winner to have had at least two 1m4f runs either won or was 100% ITM at the distance
Europe 17 1/2 US 5 1/2 since 1999 (2xUS winners trained Graham Motion, Englishman)
APO'B 6 wins (last won in '16), Sir Michael Stoute 4, Andre Fabre 3, Graham Motion, S bin Suroor, B Meehan, Bill Mott 2 each

9.40pm GMT: Breeders’ Cup Classic (1m2f, Dirt)

Key Trends (38 renewals so far)

All of the last 21 Classic winners had 3-8 runs that season
37/38 ran 1-2-3 LTO (23 x 1st; 9 x 2nd; 5 x 3rd)
34/38 won a G1 that season
38/38 aged 3-5 (6yo+ 0/33) – 3yo 12 wins; 4yo 15 wins; 5yo 10 wins
22 of last 33 posted stamina (6f+) workout since last run
10/11 40+ day layoffs posted Bullet AND/OR Stamina works since last run
10/13 3yo winners ran in at least one Triple Crown race (1 exception was a Euro)
22 of the last 26 posted 100+ Beyer last time but below previous best ('19 winner, 106, new top; '20 winner, 105, equalled top)
Where no distance form, check breeding for stamina credentials
Bob Baffert 4, Steve Asmussen 2, Bill Mott 2

2022 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Preview, Tips

28 September 2022/in Big Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

The first Sunday in October is the traditional date for Europe's middle distance Championship race, the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. Run at Longchamp over a mile and a half (2400 metres if you prefer) the race invariably cements the reputation of a champion elect or elevates the status of a hitherto underrated contender.

Consider last year, when Torquator Tasso was considered a shock winner by most measures, including the betting - he returned 72/1 on the French tote - but he had already been first or second in five Group 1 races! That quintet included a G1 score in the Grosser Preis von Baden on his prior start. Since his Arc glory day, TT has run second in both the G1 King George at Ascot and the Grosser Preis von Baden, missing by just a head in the latter.

In 2020, Sottsass, a dual Group 1 winner including when claiming the 2019 French Derby, prevailed on his second Arc attempt; he'd been third the year before having prepped with a win in the G2 Prix Niel: that brace of 2019 contests were his only other races at twelve furlongs.

And so it goes, back through Waldgeist, a triple G1 winner; the brilliant queen, Enable, twice; double G1 winner Found (who was also second in top grade a remarkable nine times before, and once after, her Arc win); Derby, Eclipse and Irish Champion victor, Golden Horn; and twice prior to that the magnificent mare, Treve. There are simply no poor winners of the race, though some are bigger prices hiding in plain sight.

Sottsass was 7/1, Waldgeist 13/1, Treve 11/1 in her second Arc, and before her, Solemia was 33/1, and Danedream 20/1. In other words, it's a race that can be played at a price if that's your thing. And fillies have a great record in the Arc, too: between 2011 and 2018, seven of the eight Arcs were won by fillies and, in the three renewals since, fillies have run second in two of them.

Part of this performance by females can be attributed to weight concessions: three-year-old fillies receive four pounds from three-year-old colts and seven pounds from older fillies and mares; and they receive ten pounds from older colts.

With Baaeed now a confirmed non-runner, the market has begun to settle and a deep list of possibles, even without the top rated horse in Europe, is assembling. We'll get to the form in a minute, but first a brief squint at recent history...

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Draw Bias

What about the draw in the Arc, of which much is usually made? Below are the stall positions of the first six home since 2008. Note that in 2016 and 2017, the race was staged at Chantilly while Longchamp was being renovated.

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe draw bias? First six home stall numbers

Eleven horses have made the frame from the inside three stalls in the twelve Longchamp renewals sampled above. That excludes the Chantilly 'combination Ted Rogers' (remember Dusty Bin?!) in 2017. But a horse from the outside three stalls has won three times, too, again excluding Chantilly. So is too much emphasis put on the stalls lottery?

Perhaps not, at least not in terms of Arc winners. As the little table below illustrates, those housed in the lower half of the stalls have won nine of the past dozen Longchamp Arcs: 75% of them. But the minor podium spots have been equally divided on both steps; and with many/most bookies paying four places at least in the days leading up to Arc Sunday, a high draw has been no impediment to finishing on the ticket.

Summing the top four positions into high/low gives a 25-23 verdict in favour of low, though of course the most material difference is in the win row.

I hope it goes without saying that this is a tiny, just about meaningless, sample size so caution is advised for all that trigonometry dictates a horse drawn low will travel less distance and should, with a clear run, therefore have a small edge, all other things being equal (which they never are!)

Arc Winning Nation

Looking at those same 14 renewals of the Arc from a nationality perspective, a few slightly surprising points emerge. The scorecard is as follows:

France 6
UK 4 (3 for John Gosden)
Ireland 2 (1 for Aidan O'Brien)
Germany 2

It was a bit of a shock, to me at least, that Ireland's haul in recent times has been so 'normal' given the volume of high class middle distance horses from that nation. And, particularly, that within those figures, Aidan O'Brien's record is just, well, good rather than excellent. Here is APOB's tale of the tape, and I've included 2007 because it's kind of relevant as you'll see:

2021: Snowfall 19/5 6th
2020: No runner
2019: Japan 9/1 4th, Magical 19/1 5th
2018: Capri 25/1 5th, Kew Gardens 8/1 7th, Nelson 100/1 8th, Magical 40/1 10th, Hunting Horn 40/1 16th
2017: Order of St George 8/1 4th, Idaho 25/1 8th, Winter 9/1 9th, Seventh Heaven 50/1 14th, Capri 20/1 17th
2016: FOUND 6/1 1st, Highland Reel 20/1 2nd, Order of St George 14/1 3rd
2015: Found 18/1 9th, Tapestry 33/1 16th
2014: Ruler of the World 12/1 9th, Tapestry 14/1 13th, Chicquita 40/1 15th
2013: Ruler of the World 7/1 7th, Leading Light 10/1 12th
2012: Camelot 2/1 7th, St Nicholas Abbey 14/1, Ernest Hemingway 150/1 16th, Robin Hood 500/1 18th
2011: So You Think 9/2 4th, St Nicholas Abbey 33/1 5th, Treasure Beach 28/1 14th
2010: Fame And Glory 9/2 5th, Cape Blanco 11/1 13th, Midas Touch 40/1 17th
2009: Fame And Glory 6/1 6th, Grand Ducal 300/1 17th, Cornish 500/1 18th
2008: Soldier of Fortune 9/2 3rd, Duke of Marmalade 4/1 7th, Red Rock Canyon 250/1 16th
2007: DYLAN THOMAS 11/2 1st, Soldier of Fortune 10/3 5th, Yellowstone 150/1 11th, Song of Hiawatha 150/1 12th

In fact, Aidan has won the Arc only twice, in 2007 and in 2016 when he had an incredible clean sweep of the medal placings. Aside from that, he has just one further top three finish since 2007, which was Soldier Of Fortune's third place in 2008. When you look at the quality he has aimed, and the prices at which some were sent off, that's not the strongest pointer to Luxembourg's chance. Nor, naturally, will it prevent Luxembourg from winning if he's good enough: it didn't stop Found or Dylan Thomas after all. But at the prices...

Meanwhile, Germany has 20/1 and 72/1 winners for its brace in the sample period. That, according to my fag packet calculations, from just eleven runners. Of the nine non-winners, It's Gino dead heated for third at 150/1, and all bar two finished in the top nine.

The full German-trained form string since 2007 (oldest to current) reads: 6th / 3rd 11th / 13th / 9th 12th / 1st / 8th / 6th 7th / 1st

That's pretty impressive.

The last non-Gosden trained British winner of the Arc was Workforce, brilliantly conditioned in 2010 by Sir Michael Stoute. Without going into the specifics of it, the likes of Hurricane Lane, Adayar, Stradivarius, Enable (twice), and Ghaiyyath have all been beaten for Team GB in just the last three years alone. A few have rattled the woodwork in the wider sample period - Sea Of Class narrowly failed to beat Enable, and Youmzain was famously second twice - but the overall record does not inspire confidence in the challenge of les rosbifs.

The home team saddles far more runners than any of the raiding squads and it is therefore little surprise that they have the most wins in recent years. There was Solemia at 33/1 (tipped on these pages, astonishingly) but, she aside, the longest priced French scorer since the superdam Urban Sea prevailed at 37/1 in 1993 was 13/1 Waldgeist three years ago. That's probably not out of kilter with what the maths would expect but it does serve as a note of caution for us reckless moulin-tilters!

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Winning Age and Gender

Five-year-olds occasionally win the Arc. Waldgeist did in 2019, so too Marienbard in 2002, Tony Bin in 1988 and Star Appeal in 1975; but you'll already have the impression that it's not a regular occurrence. That outlying quartet aside, every winner back to the five-year-old Le Paillon in 1947 was aged three or four. Runners older than five rock up in dribs and drabs most years, and this year may include the good (but not great) Aussie mare, Verry Elleegant, and Broome as well as a couple of Japanese entries. That latter trio if lining up would surely serve pacemaker duties only.

Between 1994 and 2011, three-year-olds won all bar three Arcs; since 2012, they've won only three. Further, two of the three-year-olds to win - Treve and Enable - doubled up at four. Why such a poor record for the three's? Well, given nothing has materially changed about the race conditions, it can only be down to the quality of the Classic cohorts and the rub of the green.

On gender, fillies and mares receive a healthy allowance from the colts. The biggest weight disparity is between a three-year-old filly and older colts, the younger ladies getting ten pounds from the more mature gents. In theory, this is simply to level the playing field, and it is a smarter cruncher than this scribbler who can posit against that theory. But since the German-trained three-year-old filly Danedream bashed up the trendsters, we've witnessed Solemia, then Treve twice, Found, and Enable twice bring it home for the fairer sex. Seven in the last eleven years.

But it runs deeper than that. Tarnawa got closest to Torquator Tasso last year, likewise Enable to Waldgeist in 2019, Sea Of Class was closest to Enable a year before that, and the likes of Taghrooda, Shareta, Sarafina, and Snow Fairy have also made the frame; as well, of course, as the brilliant winner in 2008, Zarkava. Fillies and mares continue to outperform their representation and, to some degree, are still under appreciated by the market.

Where does that leave us exactly? For many, it will doubtless leave you cold - or at least tepid - because the pen that inscribes the form book is more powerful than the blunt sword of statistical sophistry wielded hitherto. Or, in slightly plainer English, it's been quackery rules so far.

Still, I'm counselled by my rummage against being too hot on Aidan, or on Team GB, or on a Frenchie at a price; and never to dismiss a German runner out of hand. Moreover, I'll only slightly mark up an inside post and believe that a good horse can win from any post position. I will discount all but the most interesting five-year-old, and all older than that; and I will give a bonus point to any filly in the field. Devil take the hindmost.

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Video Form

Some, perhaps most, will disregard historical profiles in favour of which animals have done what on the track and, in fairness, it seems reasonable to at least consider those exertions*. So what follows is a quick whizz through many of the key races. Keep in mind that runners in some recent trials, especially the French trio of Niel, Foy and Vermeilles, may not have been 100% ready that day. For what they're worth, my quick notes are alongside each recording.

*sarcasm alert

Irish Champion Stakes (1m 2f)

Looked very strong 10f form.

Vadeni - a little inconvenienced against the rail - and Mishriff closing on first run getters Lux and Onesto.
Lux by Camelot out of Danehill Dancer mare: offers hope but no guarantees
Onesto by Frankel out of Sea The Stars mare: plenty of stamina there. Already won the G1 GPdP over 12f, beating Simca Mille

Grand Prix de Paris (1m4f)

Onesto last to first, great turn of pace; but steady enough gallop (Eldar Eldarov outpaced)
Simca Mille - needs supplementing - tried to make all, coming back at Onesto (tenderly handled) at the line.

Prix Niel (1m4f)

Race fit Lassaut gave Simca Mille, back from a break, a two length start but couldn't quite bridge it. Winner has bags of 12f form (1121) at the trip.
Japanese Do Deuce might improve for the run but was well beaten

Prix Vermeille (1m4f)

La Parisienne locked up on the rail, splits came late, quickened smartly but not quite getting there.

Prix Foy (1m4f)

Last to first for the smart gelding (who is therefore disqualified from Arc entry), Iresine. Broome and Verry Elleegant were verry (sic) disappointing.

Grosser Preis von Baden (1m4f)

Small field, tactical, Torquator Tasso prominent, took lead but run down by Mendocino in shadow of posts.

Prix du Jockey Club (1m 2.5f)

Vadeni chased leaders from inside draw, quickened impressively. Al Hakeem, Onesto and Lassaut the rear trio, 10L from the lead, all finished well, no chance. Al Hakeem finished best.

Prix de Diane (1m 2.5f)

Nashwa (Prominent throughout, first run in straight) held off La Parisienne (ground saving rail run, got split 1 1/2f out, finished well but slightly too late)

Yorkshire Oaks (1m4f)

Alpinista (unbeaten in last 7, all 1m4f, last 5 at G1 level, including vs males) tracked leaders, smooth run to lead 2 out, ran on well. Tuesday held in second.

Takarazuka Kinen (1m4f)

Titleholder always front rank behind pacemaker, kicked first, won by daylight. Had previously won over 2m.

Arc Market Overview with Form Comments

To the right is a snapshot of some of the major betting lists courtesy of our mutual friends at oddschecker.

Luxembourg is the tenuous favourite, available at 9/2 in a place, and they then bet 7/1 the field. Clearly, the implication is this is still a very tough wagering puzzle!

Horses I'm for and against - and those I've backed (braced for impending arrest by the aftertime police), and why, are thus:

Luxembourg has bounced back from early season setback, comes here relatively fresh and has a chance of staying on pedigree. Would back him at a bigger price (had a small saver at 6's)

Alpinista has rock solid credentials in terms of trip, grade and consistency. Mare has beaten many of these, including Torquator Tasso prior to his 2021 Arc score and an obvious contender despite being a five-year-old. (Had tiny e/w saver at 15/2)

Torquator Tasso won last year on heavy but has strong form on sounder surfaces. Second the last twice in G1 company, running to similar level as prior to last year's Arc

Titleholder is the first Japanese runner in the list. Has won from 1m3f up to two miles. I cannot peg this form but winning - twice - at or around two miles suggests he might be too slow for this. [And I might be completely wrong about that]

Adayar won the Derby and King George last year before a good fourth in the Arc. Sole run in 2022 was an ungraded conditions event last week so has a bit to prove in spite of the ease with which he did it there (as the 2/7 favourite). Very well backed today - see line of blue in image

Onesto is a three-year-old colt with strong form. Winner of the 1m4f Grand Prix de Paris and second in the Irish Champion, he may not want it soft. Has a fine turn of gear, but will be "ridden for luck" from the back most likely

Vadeni is an uncertain runner and not a guaranteed stayer (by Churchill, though out of a Monsun mare) who has yet to race beyond ten and a half furlongs; took a while to get going in Irish Champion then tightened on the rail before finishing best. Prix du Jockey Club and Eclipse winner, good chance if he runs and stays

Westover has too much to prove after his King George blowout. Won a typically weak Irish Derby and was third in a pretty weak Derby. Not for me

La Parisienne is unlucky not to have won the French Oaks (Prix de Diane) and Prix Vermeille, both Group 1's, Gerald Mosse giving her a soupçon too much to do on each occasion. Looks like she stays and is a 3yo filly getting all the allowances. Backed her e/w at 33/1. 20/1 still reasonable, I think

Do Deuce represents the land of the rising sun and can be expected to step forward from his Prix Niel effort. Probably didn't enjoy the slow ground there and, if it comes up good, he'll be more interesting than the Niel trial suggests

Al Hakeem is another I took a small piece of at 33's, win only. Sole '22 defeat was when given (way) too much to do in the Prix du Jockey Club, where he recorded the best closing sectionals. Has won again since and is trained by 2020 winning trainer Jean-Claude Rouget (Sottsass)

Lassaut is also trained by Rouget and ran the classic French prep when accelerating from far back to not quite get up in the Prix Niel (sent off favourite). This is his trip and he's a dark horse for all that he has plenty to find on the book at this stage. Had small e/w at 33/1, currently readily available at 40's!

Simca Mille needs supplementing and there must be a good chance of that as he's won four from five this year, including the Niel. Was second to Onesto (tried to make all) in the Grand Prix de Paris, so his face fits for all that he may be swamped in the final furlong. Backed tiny e/w at 40's

Mendocino brings the Grosser Preis von Baden form to the table, seeing off Torquator Tasso there (ridden by TT's Arc-winning jockey, Rene Piechulek). Looks an Autumn horse and, as a German-bred and -trained four-year-old, likely to finish in the first half of the field

*I also had a cheeky go at 33/1 Baaeed prior to the Juddmonte. It looked interesting for a while... sigh

As you can see I've chanced a couple of quid in a few directions, and cannot yet discount a further wager, perhaps on Vadeni or Do Deuce when ground and entries are better known.

There remain a lot of horses with strong credentials and, whilst I respect Luxembourg and particularly Alpinista, there is value against the head of the market. I'm not hugely sold on any of TT, Titleholder or Adayar - which is not to say they won't fill out the first three places, natch - and I'm completely against Westover.

Vadeni would be very interesting on top of the ground if he's allowed to run; and Do Deuce also very likely has more merit than his prep blowout. But I think 20/1 La Parisienne and 33/1 Al Hakeem are two that could shorten (or shorten further in the case of the filly) and as such might be a sliver of value.

Good luck, it promises to be a fascinating Arc even in the absence of Baaeed.

Matt

Derby and Oaks 2022 Preview

30 May 2022/in Big Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

This weekend, Epsom Downs will welcome the Queen's Platinum Jubilee celebrations in the absence of both Her Majesty, and his majesty. The former is a late scratch and we all hope and trust she is generally well; the latter, Lester Piggott - in whose honour the Derby will be run - passed just days before the 2022 renewal.

What follows is a slightly different take on a familiar theme: trends and tips for the Derby and Oaks. To wit, it seems reasonable to assert that the Oaks and Derby are parallel lines in terms of equine peer groups and, as such, any profiling considerations might be enhanced by combining the two datasets into a single cohort (group, if you prefer) and seeing what gives. Let's start with that...

Oaks and Derby Combined Trends

Looking at the past ten years gives us 20 individual races - ten Derby's and ten Oaks's - going back to the 2012 pair. Here are a few observations:

Trainers

Aidan O'Brien 12 winners (25 win & place from 80 runners)
John Gosden 4 (10 w&p from 26)
Charlie Appleby 2 (4 w&p from 10)
Ralph Beckett/ Dermot Weld 1 each

This is hardly ground-breaking stuff but it does serve to underline what an elite club the Epsom Classics have become. Ralph Beckett won his second and most recent Oaks in 2013, since when only Dermot Weld - with Harzand in 2016 - has had the temerity to interlope the hegemony of Messrs. O'Brien, Gosden and Appleby.

Naturally, if I asked you to name three trainers who get the best horses, you'd name those three; nevertheless, their dominance is sobering.

Odds

Five winners of Epsom Classics since 2012 returned 13/8 or shorter and, at this stage, it looks quite possible that both the Oaks and Derby will have a market leader with that degree of public confidence behind it. The good news for those of us that typically like a bit more jam on our bread is that four jollies in this odds range were turned over, two of them at odds on and none bigger than 11/8.

Moreover, seven Oaks or Derby winners in the past decade returned 16/1 or longer, and fully 21 of the 60 placed horses returned at least 16/1: windmill tilters, welcome!

Sires

Galileo 8 winners (19 win & place from 57 runners)
Sea The Stars 2 (4 w&p from 14)
Frankel 2 (5 w&p from 13)
New Approach 2 (2 w&p from 7)
Montjeu )
Fastnet Rock )
Nathaniel ) 1 each
Cape Cross )
Deep Impact )
Pour Moi )

Dubawi 0 from 11 (2 placed)

Galileo has sired 40% of the 20 Oaks and Derby winners since 2012. But that's not all. His progeny Frankel, New Approach and Nathaniel have collectively fathered five further Epsom Classic winners in that time. Aside from Galileo and his sons, only Sea The Stars, by Darley stallion Cape Cross, has more than one notch on the Epsom Classic winning post in the study period. And it gets even more one-sided when we consider the female blood lines...

Damsires

There have been two winners each for progeny of mares sired by Kingmambo, Galileo, Danehill Dancer, and Sadler's Wells. This means that Galileo is at least 25% of the gene pool for three-quarters of the Derby and Oaks winners in the past decade. That's a quite astonishing fact, to my eye.

Race Class last time out

The breakdown of last day race class is as follows:

Group 1 6 winners (12 win & place from 38 runners)
Group 2 1 (8 w&p from 27)
Group 3 5 (12 w&p from 72)
Listed 7 (19 w&p from 88)
Other 1 (4 w&p from 18)

*this excludes horses who ran outside of UK and Ireland on their prior start

Those which ran in Group 1 company last time did so, unsurprisingly, in either the Newmarket or Curragh Guineas. Two of them won a Guineas, one was runner-up and two more finished third. Only Qualify, hopelessly outpaced at both Guineas venues before rattling home over the extra half mile at Epsom, was off a Guineas podium from this sextet.

There was a reasonably fair distribution of winners to representatives across other race classes, though the 27 to have contested a Group 2 last time probably under-performed a touch. Golden Horn, winner of the Dante in 2015, was the sole torch bearer for this group, a group that will have high hopes for Desert Crown, the 2022 Derby ante post favourite.

Placing last time out

Only the aforementioned Qualify was off the board on prior start, the full tale of that tape being thus:

1st 12 winners (31 win & place from 114)
2nd 4 (13 w&p from 47)
3rd 3 (6 w&p from 34)
4th 0 (7 w&p from 17)

It's hardly a shock that last day winners have scored again in an Oaks or Derby, but perhaps one might have expected more than 'just' 60% of Epsom Classic winners to come here off the back of a victory in their prep run. Thanks largely to the exploits of Raif's Talent (20/1, 2013 Oaks) and the wind-assisted Serpentine (25/1, 2020 Derby), last day winners actually came out marginally ahead at Betfair SP.

But there may be more to go at with those acquiring minor medals the last day. Of the seven Oaks and Derby winners since 2012 who were 2nd or 3rd last time out, six were 'staying on' (three in a Guineas, two never nearer at Chester, one in a Lingfield Trial). Only Was (20/1, 2012 Oaks) "kept on one pace" on her prior engagement.

Draw

Who doesn't love a good Epsom draw theory? (Rhetorical)

There is all sorts of hokum presented as unequivocal fact on this matter and, as with most 'facts' in racing, we need to be a little less certain and a little more open-minded. The reality with draw at most tracks and most trips is more nuanced than many will have you believe. What follows, then, is offered in that spirit of open-minded sharing: there are no hard conclusions, just a few data from which to infer and a few candidate inferences from yours true - take 'em or leave 'em.

Specifically in the Derby and Oaks since 2012:

Lowest 2 stalls: 2/40 (7 places)
Highest 2 stalls 1/40 (6 places)

That's not out of line with expectation.

But there is no reason that I can think of why a Derby or Oaks should differ from any other mile and a half race of similar field size at Epsom in draw bias terms. So, from 2012 until now, here are a few cuts of who emerged from where...

[In the images below, I'm showing PRB - percentage of rivals beaten - and PRB3, the average PRB of a stall and its immediate neighbours. This gives a more rounded perspective as every runner, bar tail end Charlies, gets a bit of a score]

8-12 runners, all going: definite advantage to high, possible edge to 'waited with early'

13+ runners, all going: no clear advantage, though low/middle on the lead may be compromised

Quicker ground (good or faster) 8+ runners: advantage to high

Slower ground (good to soft or softer) 8+ runners: no draw advantage, clear run style advantage for held up types

On this final visual, you may wonder why the chart kicks up at the high end and yet I've asserted no advantage. The reason is that there have been very few races on a soft surface with that volume of runners - see below. It is therefore hard to know if those solitary scorers from wide boxes were random outliers or more material. I personally favour the former conclusion or, more accurately, a position of agnosticism (I just don't know). Feel free to draw your own conclusions from the heat maps and charts above.

Profile round up: where does that leave us?

Some interesting - arguably, at least - snippets in the above, but how do we piece them together into a vague identikit winner's profile? And, more pertinently for us value seekers, how do we do it without landing on the glaringly apparent and, consequently, more miserly end of the potential return spectrum?

In general terms, we might look for a runner from one of the main three stables, offered at a bold price, quite possibly (though not definitely) with Galileo featuring somewhere in the first two generations of the pedigree, and maybe a horse beaten but in the frame last time whilst 'staying on'. Do such horses exist in this year's Oaks and/or Derby?

Oaks Profile Possibles

In the Oaks, there are several that fit: Nashwa, Tuesday, Concert Hall, and With The Moonlight most obviously - and that's assuming Emily Upjohn doesn't just go and win again (the eye was taken by the Musidora score, though I'm yet to be convinced by the substance of the form).

These are all "well found", in the vogue parlance, in the betting. A couple of darker fillies perhaps worth a second glance are Tranquil Lady and Moon De Vega.

Tranquil Lady is trained by an O'Brien, Joseph to be precise. She's a daughter of Australia, himself a son of Galileo (and out of Ouija Board, champion-making material right there); and is a half-sister to last week's Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup third, State Of Rest. That one, by Starspangledbanner, was keeping on at the finish over 1m3f. This one, more stoutly bred on the paternal side, did her best work late when taking the Group 3 Blue Wind Stakes at Naas three weeks ago.

It's hard at this stage to know what she beat that day, but she was one of four horses priced 10/3 or shorter, the other trio all coming into the race unbeaten in either one or two starts. Tranquil Lady won by four easy lengths, but that's not all. As the result shows, her rivals were shouting "wait for me" from a fair way out: it is uncommon to see such margins between all runners in a small field race. The winner might just be under-rated.

More speculative again is Moon De Vega, trained by dual Oaks-winning trainer, Ralph 'Raif' Beckett. She is a lightly raced daughter of - you're ahead of me, aren't you? - Lope De Vega, out of an Azamour mare. Lope De Vega wouldn't be an obvious stamina influence, or so I thought, but Profiler tells me she has legit prospects of getting home:

Moon's mum, Lunesque, won at 1m3f and the Azamour damsire influence adds further ballast to this one's stamina case. The next question then is, is she remotely good enough? Well, Beckett knows this gig well enough and I thought the metaphorical hat of his Prosperous Voyage - staying on second in the 1000 Guineas - might have been thrown into the ring (in spite of a dubious pedigree for the task); so the fact he opted for MdV is a small positive to my eye.

Moon De Vega took her time to get the hang of the racing game last term: after two fluffed starts where she ran on with promise on both occasions, she made it third time lucky in a Donny maiden. On her sole 2022 spin, Moon De Vega was fourth in the Cheshire Oaks, earning the following in running comment:

The sectional chart illustrates this better. She's the darker green line:

See how she was making a stronger move than the winner, Thoughts Of June, before getting totally stopped in her run - actually having to take back off heels and swerve a filly cutting in front of her - and was finishing like she had plenty more to offer. Thoughts Of June, trained by Aidan O'Brien and a daughter of Galileo, also has a powerful profile in the context of this piece, but she controlled the pace at Chester and seemed all out at the finish. Still, she's 20/1 and will probably offer the proverbial bold sight in the early skirmishes.

Derby Profile Possibles

Meanwhile, in Saturday's Cazoo Derby (whichever genius came up with "Cazoo, yeah you can", I hope they were handsomely rewarded. Ahem), Desert Crown looks a highly credible heir apparent and, like Emily U the day before, may just be too good. But he's inexperienced and a heck of a skinny price for all that he's everyone's most likely winner.

The first five in the market as I write are either sons or grandsons of Galileo, with rising stars of the stallion ranks such as Ulysses (Piz Badile) linking up with more established producers like Teofilo (Nations Pride) and Nathaniel (Desert Crown). Stone Age and Changingoftheguard, as well as Star Of India, are all by Galileo himself, and then there's the Frankel's, Westover and Nahanni. Bloomin' 'eck!

It's a little harder than in the fillies' race to envisage a world in which one of those regally-bred equines towards the head of the market is not first past the post; but there may still be a tolerable return for a well-crafted risk/reward place play.

For all that I expect Ralph's Westover to take a large stride forward from his all out Sandown trial score, it still probably won't be enough. And, though Star Of India, winner of the Dee Stakes, is not bereft of a chance, it is a long time since Kris Kin (2003) and Oath (1999) did the Dee-Derby double for those legends of the game, Sir Michael and Sir Henry.

A horse I'm drawn to even though he may end up hopelessly outclassed is Eydon. As I mentioned when I flagged him up in this sectional Clock Watcher piece in January, he's by the uber-unfashionable sire, Olden Times, whose last noteworthy winners were in Cup races and trained by the late John Dunlop! Stay with me for a moment, though, because Eydon was fourth in the 2000 Guineas, a test surely on the rapid side for one of his breeding - as well as Olden Times, he's third generation Galileo as his damsire is Frankel. In fact, he was dropping back in trip for the Guineas having lagged up in the Feilden Stakes over nine furlongs the time before. His Guineas in running comment concluded, "kept on inside final furlong".

Trainer Roger Varian has yet to commit to the Derby despite giving Eydon a spin at the Breakfast with the Stars morning last Monday, insisting that the shorter Prix du Jockey Club is also under serious consideration. So, unless you can get the non runner money back concession, it's a hang fire for now job.

Conclusions

Both the Oaks and Derby markets are characterised by strong favourites bearing unblemished upwardly mobile credentials, and there might be a case to crash them together in a lazy double: there are plenty of less appealing 9/2 shots than that, and it at least offers a plausible saver against which to take a more ambitious swing.

In that spirit, I've backed Tranquil Lady at 14/1 and Moon De Vega at 33/1, both in the Oaks, each way for smallish (relative, always relative) stakes. And, as soon as yer man Roger gives the go ahead, I'll be lobbing the Derby Hail Mary in the direction of 33/1 Eydon, whose pedigree suggests his trainer ought to have more faith in his staying power (Mr V, naturally, knows more than thee, and way more than me, however). Of course, Eydon's price may shorten once his race target is known, but he'll surely still be 25/1 if lining up and could be longer on the morning of the race, depending on who stands firm on declaration day (Thursday).

Whatever you're backing, good luck and here's hoping for two exciting races on the helter-skelter Epsom cambers this weekend.

Matt

I Know What You Did Last Spring: Making Long Range Cheltenham Festival Projections

29 March 2022/in Cheltenham Festival Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

As late March heralds longer days and flat racing fiestas in the coming weeks and months, those of us with a Cheltenham Festival-sized gap in our hearts and minds (and, perhaps, wallets) are already projecting wistfully forward to fifty weeks hence and the 2023 Cleeve Hill jamboree. If that sounds about 85% of the way along the tragic-desperate continuum, it is mitigated by the fact that such far-reaching forward-looking is not mutually exclusive with more impending matters on the level.

The focus of what follows, then, is a last lingering look back - and forward - with the aim of trying to isolate an ante post ticket (or two) whose value might subsequently be enhanced. No sooner had the Festival winners been hosed down than odds for possible return targets were chalked up; most such offers will look pretty thin when the time comes but some will not. Emboldened as I am always by the prospect of a punt at a price, I've looked back at the last decade to see if there were any clues from the previous year's spring festivals that we ought to have heeded. If that doesn't yet make sense, it will do soon enough.

Where next for the Champion Bumper winner?

I'll start with a 'what happened next' for those Cheltenham Festival winners that typically didn't have a previous spring campaign under their belt, the ones emerging from the Champion Bumper.

The first thing to say is that five of the prior nine Champion Bumper winners did not even get to the following year's Cheltenham Festival. The second, an aside, is to apologise for references to the Albert Bartlett as 'Spuds': it's a lazy shorthand so forgive me, please.

Facile Vega, the very good winner of this year's Champion Bumper, is no bigger than 3/1 for next year's Supreme; that looks ungenerous given only one of the previous nine winners even contested that race, Ballyandy finishing fourth in 2016 - as a 3/1 chance. That ten year time span is more unhelpful than disingenuous in that, a year earlier than the snapshot, in 2012, Champagne Fever completed part two of the Bumper-Supreme double.

More interesting, if indeed anything is interesting when fishing for patterns (which may or may not be mirages) in shallow pools, is that two of the previous three Champion Bumper winners - Envoi Allen and Sir Gerhard - went on to win the Ballymore as odds on shots. Facile Vega is a top-priced 6/1 for that longer novice hurdle and, if there's a bet here, that must be it. After all, his mum, Quevega, couldn't win in Graded company at two miles (from two tries, 3rd and 9th) but was almost unbeatable at two-and-a-half and three; and sire Walk In The Park's best strike rate is comfortably at around two and a half miles.

In the slightly longer grass, a few of the placed horses from the Festival flat race have won the opener twelve months later, so perhaps a second glance at American Mike, 14/1 in a place, is merited. (I believe James's Gate, as he's owned by the owners of Ballymore Properties, will go to that race so he, too, might figure in considerations if only because we know what his target will be, all other things being equal).

Observations:
Champion Bumper to Supreme is generally not a path trodden by winners of the former, but to the Ballymore has been a recent 'thing'. 6/1 about Facile Vega for the Ballymore might look too big if he can actually get to next year's meeting.

Placed horses in the Champion Bumper have a fair record in winning the Supreme. American Mike's 14/1 quote in a place likely won't last but there is general 12's available.

Supreme Novices' Hurdle

For all races that follow there is typically at least one season's previous form with which to work; as such, the format laid out for the Supreme will be replicated for all of the remaining Festival Grade 1's. Here's how it looks:

We can now see Champagne Fever in the bottom row of the table - see, I told you I wasn't being 'convenient'! We can also see that Appreciate It (and we cannot see that in 2011 Al Ferof) won the Supreme having been second in the Champion Bumper. But what is most striking if you're desperate to bet this race now is that almost none of the Supreme winners in the past decade were on the mainstream radar a year earlier.

This table is, at least partially, the inverse of the Champion Bumper bit above and, as such, not much else needs saying, except tread very carefully: we may not have even heard of next year's Supreme winner yet!

Observations:
We quite possibly do not even know of the existence of next year's Supreme winner right now. American Mike is possibly the one for pin-stickers with a chance to replicate two recent Champion Bumper runners up who scored in the Supreme.

Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

The intermediate distance Grade 1 novice hurdle and usually a classy affair, at the front end at least.

On top of the already made point about the pair of Champion Bumper winners who rocked up here as shorties a year later and got it done, the key takeaway is to keep a close eye on winning Irish bumper favourites away from the Festival spotlight. The thinking - and I do appreciate how tenuous some of this stuff is - is that they're favoured because of a level of ability already demonstrated, either at home or on the track; and they've been brought along relatively steadily out of the glare of wider perception. Related, perhaps, is that four of the five to fit this blueprint had also already won a point to point.

Both Yorkhill and Bob Olinger emerged from the same Gowran Park bumper won this year by Kalanisi Star. He won easily but recorded a lesser rating and is trained by the unfashionable (though eminently capable) Oliver McKiernan. Similarly, City Island (a winner for the race sponsors) and Faugheen both progressed from Punchestown's late May meeting, so that's a fixture to keep onside.

Observations:
Aside from maybe betting Facile Vega for the 2023 Ballymore, keep an eye on well-touted winners of spring bumpers in Ireland outside of the Punchestown Festival, especially if they already have a point to point verdict on their scorecard.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

The potato race, as it is affectionately - and effectively, because who knew Albert Bartlett was a producer of starchy tubers beforehand? - known, is the staying division for novice hurdlers. Here's what recent AB victors were doing a year or so prior.

It may be more correct to say, here's what recent AB victors were not doing a year or so prior. They were not running in the Champion Bumper (though Briar Hill fell as 2/1 favourite for this in 2013) and they were not running in the Aintree bumpers. They might, however, have been on the podium in one of the non-Grade 1 National Hunt Flat races at the Punchestown Festival; and all the more interesting if they'd recently changed hands having won a point to point.

That ostensibly (and quite possibly actually) contrived route to potato riches was trodden by all of 33/1 Very Wood, 50/1 Minella Indo, and 5/1 Monkfish since 2014. A fourth winner in the sample, 33/1 Kilbricken Storm, also emerged as a point winner the previous spring. That's hardly surprising considering that, firstly, the vast majority of point to points are run at three miles, the same range as the Albert Bartlett; and, secondly, maiden races between the flags usually place a premium on jumping ability in young horses.

Observation:
Have a look at those emerging from points to make the frame in non-Grade 1 Punchestown Festival bumpers. They'll be a price, though history suggests they might be a bigger price on the day next March!

Champion Hurdle

After some middling attempts to find order in perfect randomness around the novice hurdle cohort, we move to the relative structure of the two mile Championship hurdle race, aptly known as the Champion Hurdle.

The column upon which to focus attention here is 'Prev Cheltenham' - it will not be a surprise that nine of the last ten Champion Hurdle winners were present a year earlier, nor particularly that they ran - generally placed - in a mixture of the novice hurdles, Mares' Hurdle and Champion Hurdle itself.

When contemplating such folly as an ante post bet a year out it is important to think about the shape of the race, in terms of how much is known already and how much is still to emerge. In the novice events, next to nothing is known at this stage while in the Champion Hurdle we probably have the vast majority of intel available, barring the maintenance of form and fitness.

What I am trying to say is that asking for both Honeysuckle and Constitution Hill to either regress materially or produce sick notes is a big request. Of the other potentials suggested by previous spring form, none appeal as capable of getting even much beyond the level of an Epatante or a Zanahiyr, let alone the champ and the champ elect. Of course, stuff happens, but we're already going out on more limbs than a millipede has in its possession and this, friends, is a bridge too far.

Marie's Rock has next to no chance in the Champion Hurdle, likewise the aforementioned Champion placed horses and, from the novice ranks, only Sir Gerhard looks a credible threat. He's 8/1 and he ain't sufficiently credible to legitimise that as an exciting punt. State Man and Vauban are unexposed sorts but we're back to Katchit in 2008 for the previous Triumph Hurdle winner to double up, and no horse has emerged from a handicap to win the big one a year later; Katchit, it should be added, had nothing of the immensity of Honeysuckle or Constitution Hill in his way.

Observation:
Not one to be getting too far ahead of ourselves about. Two seriously talented, career unbeaten, including in multiple Grade 1, horses - a race to hope they both show up for, and savour when they do. They're probably fair enough prices and there are more interesting (it's all relative) wagering options elsewhere.

Stayers' Hurdle

The Stayers' Hurdle, a Championship (nominally, at least) three-miler, is one of the more inscrutable - or less scrutable - open races at Le Fez. Its roll of honour reads more 'who?' than who's who, and there is very little in the previous spring Festival form from which to piece together even the most circumstantial of cases. And yes, I do appreciate that hasn't stopped me above and below this segment!

Podium finishers in the staying novice races at Aintree - the Sefton - and Punchestown - Irish Mirror - have provided four winners since 2015, and that's the best I have.

Observation:
This is akin to trying to sculpt water.

Arkle Challenge Trophy

And so to the Grade 1 steeplechases, the first of which is the Arkle, a two mile test of speed and jumpcraft (not a word, should be). In the last ten years, Willie's won four and Nicky has won three. That's as good a starting point as any.

Three of that Hendo/Mullins septet won the Supreme while the third Seven Barrows scorer won the Ballymore. The only beaten horse from a Festival novice hurdle to win the Arkle twelve months on in the last ten years was Duc Des Genievres and I'm still unable to explain how that happened.

We also know stuff like five-year-olds have struggled since their allowance was removed; the last of that vintage was Voy Por Ustedes, in receipt of five pounds weight for age, in 2006. So we can ignore those at this stage.

The obvious one is Sir Gerhard, comfortable winner of the Ballymore and already a point winner. Talk of his jumping frailty looks overplayed to my, granted somewhat untutored, eye and he is likely to take high rank in the novice chase division next term. I do worry that, as his flag form - and the Ballymore - implies, he could go towards the Golden Miller (Marsh/JLT/Turners) rather than the shorter race; and any early fencing blemishes will be amplified in the media which might make connections twitchy. That's enough to swerve him at the price, 5/1 tops, for now.

At double those odds is Appreciate It, nine lengths back in the Champion Hurdle after a year off the track. He ran a fair bit better than his finishing position suggests and I think we'll see a much improved performance, and subsequent contraction in his Arkle odds, after Punchestown. Even if he beats Honeysuckle there, which I don't really expect, he's likely to dodge Con Hill and go fencing next term. Footpad's was a not dissimilar profile for the same trainer, Willie Mullins, in 2018.

Zanahiyr might be another worth a thought, though he's not generally priced up: there's a good chance I don't know something I should do about the chances of his Arkle participation.

Observation:
The key is to work out who will be avoiding the perceived strength in next year's Champion Hurdle field while still being good enough to contest an Arkle. Appreciate It is a double figure price and may shorten for all sorts of targets if getting close to Honeysuckle at Punchestown.

Golden Miller Novices' Chase

Formally known as the Golden Miller, we'll stick with that for a race that in its short life has had as many sponsors/names (Jewson, Centenary, JLT, Marsh, Turners) as the Festival wants days. It's an intermediate distance novice chase, which means that even more guesswork is required in terms of horses being suited to its conditions rather than simply avoiding the level of competition in either the Arkle or RSA/Brown Advisory/Broadway. Quirkily, this year's Golden Miller had two of the very hottest novices around, Bob Olinger and Galopin Des Champs, and scared away another, L'Homme Presse, who was originally mooted to take this middle path.

That kind of double bluff is commonplace in a race whose ante post waters are further muddied by the vast array of talent in certain yards, many of which trainer and/or jockey and/or owner are eager to see in separate divisions in March.

Perhaps the previous spring will shed some much needed luminescence on these murky cogitations. [Why use one syllable when many more are available?!]

The Ballymore is the one, isn't it? Three Golden Miller winners were doubling up on a Ballymore score a year before; three more ran down the track in the same race. The winner, we know, was Sir Gerhard and I increasingly feel this is where he'll wind up - and with an obvious chance, of course.

But perhaps it's worth looking down the field for another arrow at a price that accommodates at least some of the additional risk. In that spirit, I offer up Three Stripe Life, beaten by Sir Gerhard thrice in six career starts. But stay with me a minute, because he actually got closest - within four lengths of Sir G in the Ballymore - when everything else, bar the last flight tumbler Journey With Me, was waiting for a bus home - and connections would surely have been emboldened by his finishing effort on a first try beyond two miles. He might be playable at 14/1 for an interest.

Journey With Me, too, is not impossible. He might take a different tack, as might the others mentioned, but that is surely factored into a quote of 25/1 with one joint. He was unbeaten in a point, a bumper and two novice hurdles prior to being booked for third in the Ballymore; and he represents the same owner, trainer and, presumably, jockey as this year's Golden Miller winner, Bob Olinger (for all that we know how lucky he was).

Observation:
Look to the Ballymore form. Sir Gerhard is obvious but this has been a race for apparent rather than obvious winners as the abundance of those returned 3/1 and 4/1 attests; so perhaps TSL or JWM offer a sliver of value.

Broadway Novices' Chase

Familiarly known as the RSA Chase, but now sponsored by Brown Advisory, who used to sponsor one of the handicaps - this sponsorship lark is important but it really is getting very confusing - this is the three mile novice chase championship. Below are the last ten winners and what they were up to a year or so prior.

Most of the Broadway winners ran at Cheltenham the previous year and ran well there. What is interesting, to me at least, is that three of the seven to dance at the Chelto party a year prior did so in a handicap rather than a Grade 1. Don Poli won the Martin Pipe, Presenting Percy won the Pertemps Final, and Topofthegame was second in the Coral Cup. The last named was actually the highest rated of the trio, on 150 at the time and a second season hurdler - the other pair novices - and 143 was the lowest rating of them.

No horse from the top two in the handicaps this year fits the Broadway profile, but third placed Hollow Games ran on well over the two and a half miles of the Martin Pipe to be third, carrying 11-09, second top weight. Rated 143, it's far from impossible the £255,000 sales buy could emerge as an RSA contender.

The lazy route into the Broadway is the Albert Bartlett winner but, as can be seen, only the exceptional (I think, would like to see more of him) Monkfish doubled up in the last ten years. Two beaten horses from that race, O'Faolains Boy and Blaklion, prevailed in the fencing equivalent but trying to work out which, and why, from this year's potato crop (see what I did there?) is beyond me. That said, there are reasons to believe that Hillcrest is a lot better than he showed in the Al Barty and will improve for a fence, and he's priced attractively.

A final word of caution - one can never have too many words of caution in a post like this - is that three of the most recent ten Broadway winners were unsighted at any of the Spring Festivals. Might Bite and L'Homme Presse were particularly progressive during their chase campaigns: there's always time, and space in the ledger, to back another one or three 'twixt now and then!

Observation:
Three winners that were unheralded a year earlier mean this is a race to play small at big prices, or (probably) not at all. The pick of the handicap form, ideally from a novice with a decent rating and carrying a commensurately lumpy weight, isn't the worst way to tilt at it, so have a look at 20/1 Hollow Games. And perhaps Hillcrest at a similar quote.

Queen Mother Champion Chase

The last three races under consideration are the Championship chases, starting with the two mile division.

Two races from the year before dominate, and they're predictable enough, too. The novice version of the Champion Chase, the Arkle, and the Champion Chase itself are kingmakers (or queenmaker in the case of Put The Kettle On) having hosted eight next year Champion Chasers between them; no other race has featured even a single QMCC winner. Those Champion Chase winners have all been 11/1 or shorter, which surprised me when I recall how many of them I "couldn't have"!

Thinking about the logical contenders, this has been a race notable for absenteeism, either pre-race or during: in Politologue's victory year, both Altior and Chacun Pour Soi withdrew on the day; last year, CPS threw in a clunker; and this year, Shishkin did that while CPS tucked and rolled. I mention this by way of context as I'm about to overlook Energumene and Shishkin in the ante post market.

Energumene was undeniably electric in beating what stood up and got round, but the pick of those was the 165-rated 11-year-old Politologue. But he didn't run to 165; his performance rating from the BHA was just 148. That form is hollow for all that Energ waltzed by the residue of his field. Actually, that's not the concern. Rather, it's whether or not we can trust him to turn up twelve months down the line. If we can, and he does, he will be a major player, but a top price of 7/2 is not for me.

Shishkin is brilliant. Was brilliant. He now has a question to answer: did Ascot vaporise his verve for the game? Was Cheltenham really all about the ground? I so want to believe he'll be back, and I'll cheer him as though I'm all in if/when he does come back, but I definitely do not want to wager a year out at 5/1.

Bob Olinger and Galopin Des Champs will find ways to avoid each other without taking in the Champion Chase, I expect; and Ferny Hollow could be a runner for all that his form was not far clear of Riviere d'Etel's - and that one was no match, no match at all, for Edwardstone in the Arkle. True, it was a weak enough renewal, Eddie's pre-race 159 pick of the field ascending to 161 post-race; but he did it well and with more to give. He'll go into open company next season as second in after Shishkin of the domestics, assuming Shishkin returns to his former glories. And he's 12/1 to join the three previous Arkle winners to double up in the QMCC a year later, the most recent of which was the similarly underappreciated Put The Kettle On.

Observation:
The two mile Grade 1 chases from the previous year dominate the QMCC winners board. This is a race where the obvious often comes to pass but it can still be played at a square price, perhaps through the conduit of Edwardstone, a far better chaser than hurdler who retains upside in a division of fragile commodities.

Ryanair Chase

The much-maligned Ryanair is a race I love, and it's produced more than its share of good winners, including the current two-timer Allaho. It also has a trio of predictable components, namely Golden Miller, Willie Mullins, and Aintree form.

In fact, the Golden Miller angle, while not quite a chuck out, has gone a bit cold. Not since Balko Des Flos won the Ryanair in 2018 a year after falling in the Golden Miller as a 16/1 chance has a runner from that race won the Open version. There is a very good chance, however, that one of Bob Olinger and/or Galopin Des Champs will run in next year's Ryanair, and either would hold strong claims for all that Allaho is a worthy champ.

Galopin Des Champs, a stablemate of Allaho, is still more likely to go Ryanair as things stand: he jumps well (in spite of his last fence misfortune in the Golden Miller) and has a fantastic cruising speed. 6/1 is at the unexciting end of the acceptable spectrum, I feel, because there looks to be a huge amount of dead wood in the betting lists right now - this could end up being next year's version of the Turners match up: never mind the width, feel the quality. Galopin and Allaho both tick the Willie Mullins box - the Closutton guru has won five of the last seven Ryanair's and has a half nelson around the 2023 renewal at time of writing.

Aintree form is an interesting sneak into the ante post markets, for all that we don't yet know how that plays out. Winners of the two G1 novices chases, the Mildmay and Manifesto, prevailed in the following Ryanair in 2014/15, and Min won the Melling Chase, an Open Grade 1, en route to 2020 Ryanair glory.

Observation:
Trained by Willie Mullins, and/or exiting either of the Golden Miller/Turners or an Aintree G1 (as a winner) all embellish the prospects of a Ryanair contender. At this stage, Galopin Des Champs is a fair enough play at 6/1 in what might end up a shallow race - Allaho notwithstanding - next term. But keep a beady on events in Liverpool the week after next, too. There might be a play at a price emerging from the action there.

Cheltenham Gold Cup

And finally, the Cheltenham Gold Cup, the Blue Riband. A proper test over three and a quarter miles, plus a few more yards, it's a legitimate proving ground for our sport's champions.

Placed Gold Cup horses can and do win the following year, as demonstrated most recently by Native River (2018), Al Boum Photo doubling up in 2020, and A Plus Tard this year. And, like the Arkle/QMCC and Golden Miller/Ryanair couplings, the Broadway is a natural springboard for the Gold Cup. Witness Bobs Worth, Lord Windermere, Al Boum Photo (first time around), and Minella Indo. Those two angles account for seven of the last ten Gold Cup winners.

A shortlist, then, might be A Plus Tard, Minella Indo, Protektorat, L'Homme Presse and Ahoy Senor.

Some have Stattler making a claim but the National Hunt Chase has made zero inroads into the Gold Cup picture, even since cutting back in distance, Galvin the latest to possess the stamina but not the class for the main gig. Others proffer the talented Monkfish but he has not been seen on the course since April last year and has plenty to prove as a result. He might enter the frame after we've swooned over his comeback but he's no kind of long-term conveyance at this point.

There is no sign of a Golden Miller runner winning the Gold Cup a year after in recent history and, besides, Galopin Des Champs is only 5/1 and has other - some say, better - options. Nor am I personally convinced of the Cheltenham credentials of Bravemansgame, for all that he may shorten if winning at Aintree.

Of the quintet on the shortlist, Minella Indo will be ten next year - too old - and Protektorat looked some way shy of what's required for all that he can certainly improve from his current mark: he'll only be eight next year. A Plus Tard was imperious this time and is unquestionably the one to beat; but he's scheduled to face two rising stars off Broadway, as it were, next year. That's just as well because it's hard to see anything behind him a couple of weeks ago reversing places.

L'Homme Presse had stamina questions to answer going into the Broadway; not only did he respond with a win, he did it going away from a strong stayer at the finish. It was a performance that quietly but confidently, erm, pressed his Gold Cup claims, though 8/1 reflects that pretty much fully. So what of his vanquished rival, Ahoy Senor? His jumping was a little sketchy, more than that at one point, and if brushing up as he's entitled to for a second season over fences, he could maybe bridge the gap; but it's a stretch to imagine a reversal of form even with a clear round.

If Royale Pagaille ever gets a swamp on Gold Cup day, he'd have a great chance, and is still young enough to be a player in twelve months' time; but that is a big 'if' as evidenced by the 'going' column in the above table. Still, 50/1 is a tad rude, I'd say.

Observation:
Look to the podium spots in the previous Gold Cup, and the 1-2 from the Broadway. The problem is that the market has looked there already meaning value appears pretty thin on the ground.

So that's that, a route into most of next year's Cheltenham Festival Grade 1's based on activity this spring. If you're ambitious enough to try a few of these so far out - we all have to survive another fifty weeks through uncertain times for a start (mind you, if we don't, I guess it won't really matter whether we've made good bets or bad) - then it could be worth some uber-optimistic permed doubles. Catch one and it will apologise for a lot of misfires from the scattergun!

One other thing to keep in mind is price volatility over time. The ante post markets overreact in both directions, so horses that fit the bill above but are skinny enough in the betting right now will still fit the historical profile if/when they ease out a point or three. The brave investor buys when others are selling, as long as her fundamentals are close enough to their mark.

Good luck. With a favourable spin of the wheel, we'll have a few tasty tickets on the back burner while those flat race bunnies are haring about the place.

Matt

Cheltenham 2022: Profit and Loss

21 March 2022/in Cheltenham Festival, Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

It's that time of year again, post-Cheltenham 2022, when the prudent thing to do is look over one's wagering and inspect where things went wrong, and right; or right, and wrong. If you're the voyeuristic type then I invite you to look over my shoulder at how the Fez went for me from a punting perspective.

By way of comparison/contrast, here are a couple of previous reviews:

2021 Cheltenham Betting Review

2020 Cheltenham Betting Review

And, beneath this year's review video, is a link to my spreadsheet in case it's of any use to you.

Results spreadsheet can be downloaded here >

How was Cheltenham for you? Leave a comment and let us know!

Matt

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Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day Four Preview, Tips

1.30 Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m1f)

Triumph Hurdle Pace Map

Triumph Hurdle Selection

2.10 County Hurdle (Grade 3 Handicap, 2m1f)

County Hurdle Pace Map

County Hurdle Selection

2.50 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Pace Map

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Selection

3.30 Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1, 3m 2 1/2f)

Cheltenham Gold Cup Pace Map

Cheltenham Gold Cup Selection

4.10 Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase (Class 2, 3m 2 1/2f)

Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Pace Map

Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Selection

4.50 Mares' Chase (Grade 2, 2m 4 1/2f)

Mares' Chase Pace Map

Mares' Chase Selection

5.30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3, 2m 4 1/2f)

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Pace Map

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Selection

Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day 3 Preview, Tips

1.30 Turners Novices' Chase (Grade 1, 2m 4f)

Turners Novices' Chase Pace Map

Turners Novices' Chase Selection

2.10 Pertemps Final (Grade 3 handicap, 3m)

Pertemps Final Pace Map

Pertemps Final Selection

2.50 Ryanair Chase (Grade 1, 2m 4 1/2f)

Ryanair Chase Pace Map

Ryanair Chase Selection

3.30 Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)

Stayers' Hurdle Pace Map

Stayers' Hurdle Selection

4.10 Festival Plate (Grade 3 handicap, 2m 4 1/2f)

Festival Plate Pace Map

Festival Plate Selection

4.50 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2, 2m 1f)

Mares' Novices' Hurdle Pace Map

Mares' Novices' Hurdle Selection

5.30 Kim Muir Challenge Cup Chase (Class 2 Handicap, 3m2f)

Kim Muir Pace Map

Kim Muir Selection

Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips

1.30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m5f)

Ballymore Pace Map

Ballymore Novices' Hurdle Selection

2.10 Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1, 3m)

RSA Chase Pace Map

RSA Chase Selection

2.50 Coral Cup (Handicap, Grade 3, 2m5f)

Coral Cup Pace Map

Coral Cup Selection

3.30 Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1, 2m)

Champion Chase Pace Map

Champion Chase Selection

4.10 Glenfarclas Chase (Cross Country, Class 2, 3m6f)

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Pace Map

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Selection

4.50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3, 2m)

Grand Annual Pace Map

Grand Annual Selection

5.30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1, NH Flat, 2m 1/2f)

Champion Bumper Pace Map

Champion Bumper selection

Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day One Preview, Tips

1.30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)

Supreme Novices' Pace Projection

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Selection

2.10 Arkle Challenge Chase (Grade 1, 2m)

Arkle Pace Projection

Arkle Chase Selection

2.50 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3 handicap, 3m1f)

Ultima Pace Projection

Ultima Handicap Chase Selection

3.30 Champion Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)

Champion Hurdle Pace Projection

Champion Hurdle Selection