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Racing Insights, Thursday 19/10/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.35 Carlisle
  • 3.55 Brighton
  • 4.20 Wincanton
  • 4.45 Carlisle
  • 5.10 Thurles

...and the highest rated of the four UK races is the 3.35 Carlisle, 12-runners, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 3m½f on good ground...

Wasdell Dundalk is the only runner in the field to have won last time out and he comes here on the back of three straight wins over a similar trip to this one (all at Perth). Guetapan Collonges, The Kniphand and Ned tanner have all also won at least two of their last five outings, whilst only Morning Spirit is without a win in five.

Only Silver in Disguise and Ned Tanner ran at Class 3 last time around as Morning Spirit, The Kniphand, Dallas des Pictons and in-form Wasdell Dundalk all drop down a class, whilst joint top weights Gueatpan Collonges and Mexico both drop two classes, as does Your Own Story. Conversely Giovanni Change, East Street and bottom weight Court Dreaming are all up one class.

Most of the field are running after four to seven months off the track, but Wasdell Dundalk, Dallas des Pictons and Giovanni Change have been seen more recently at 22, 29 and 71 days respectively.

All bar Mexico, Giovanni Change and Ned tanner have won over a similar trip, whilst Morning Spirit and Court Dreaming have both won over course and distance. Your Own Story has also won here at Carlisle in the past, landing a 3m1½f Novice Hurdle in March '22.

Other relative/collateral form is shown here in Instant Expert...

...where the in-form and class-dropping Wasdell Dundalk catches the eye, especially as only he and Guetapan Collonges have won at Class 2. He is, of course, up 6lbs for his most recent win, but he did win by 14 lengths without exerting himself and the runner-up has made the frame at Class 2 again since. The place stats from those races above look like this...

...with honourable mentions going to Your Own Story and Ned Tanner amongst others. Wasdell Dundalk's last three runs/wins have come from racing further down the field and if this group race as they have done in their last few outings, then I suspect that the early pace would come from Giovanni Change and Dallas des Pictons...

...and that probably represents their best chance of getting something from the races, as past similar contests here suited front-running types...

Summary

His recent pace profile suggests he might struggle here, but everything else points to Wasdell Dundalk for me. He's in-form, down in class, hasn't been massively punished for a cosy win three weeks ago, won't need the run to clear his pipes and was the standout on Instant Expert. 1 in 16 hold-up horses win here at Carlisle, he might just be that one and at an early price of 7/1, he'd be the one for me. In fact that's almost E/W odds territory and with most firms paying four places, you could well play it safe.

As for an E/W bet for four places, I'd want a double-digit odds runner and that currently only gives me five runners to go at, but of the five longest-priced runners, the 10/1 Ned Tanner would be the one I think could make the frame.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 17/10/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...and as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.50 Leicester
  • 3.05 Gowran Park
  • 3.35 Hereford
  • 5.35 Huntingdon

...and of the nine races above, the one featuring Valsad is the highest-rated, so we're heading for the 4.55 Newcastle, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+, A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4½f  on standard tapeta...

Before analysing the race in the way I normally do, I need to mention that the top weight Military March muddies the waters somewhat here. He hasn't raced anywhere in the last 999 days since only finishing eighth of 11 to Lord Glitters in Singspiel Stakes at Meydan, despite being sent off as the 11/8 fav and it's 1228 days since his last UK run which saw him finish fourth in 2020's 2000 Guineas on just his third outing. His second outing was four years and almost a week ago and that was a Group 3 victory.

I'm mentioning all this, because it's quite possible that he won't come out of my analysis too well, but Godolphin don't keep horses in training for no reason, do they? And there's no doubting his past ability, so I'll need to keep this in mind.

What we do know is that both Capital Theory and bottom weight (carrying two stone less than Military March!) Wynter Wildes won last time out and that Haunted Dream, Stowell and Onesmoothoperator are all without a win in their racecard-visible formline, having lost their last 6, 9 and 17 races respectively.

Military March and Blanchard are on handicap debuts here and are both down in class, as their last UK run were at Group 1 and Listed class respectively, but the bottom four on the card are all up in class; Southern Voyage, Capital Theory & Sir Chauvelin are up from Class 3, whilst Wynter Wildes won a Class 4 handicap at Yarmouth last time out. All bar Capital Thory of the four class risers have already won here over course and distance, whilst Blanchland and Onesmoothoperator have both won here, over a mile and 1m2f respectively, but neither have won over a similar trip to this one, nor have Military March, Wooton'Sun or Capital Theory.

Military March has been gelded during his long absence, Wynter Wildes is the sole female in the race, Sir Chauvelin is the oldest at 11 yrs of age and our sole 3 yr old, Blanchard, gets a useful 6lbs weight for age allowance and Instant Expert's overview of past runs under similar conditions looks like this...

Valsad made The Shortlist, of course, but we now see that it was based on just one run/win on the A/W at Southwell a month ago. Haunted Dream, Capital Theory and Sir Chauvelin have multiple A/W wins and the latter definitely likes this trip, whereas Onesmoothoperator's win record looks dreadful, despite the following graphic suggesting that he's usually a very good E/W bet...

...having made the frame in 12 of his 16 A/W starts including seven of eight here at Newcastle and he's possibly the pick on place form alone. He'll run from stall 4, whilst Godolphin's returner, Military March, has got box number 1 but past similar races here at Newcastle appear to have favoured those drawn highest...

...which could be good news for the likes of Southern Voyage, Wynter Wildes, Valsad and Haunted Dream. Those 40-odd races above really haven't been kind to horses that lead with the staling prominent horses picking them off late on..

When we look at how these runners have approached their last few races, we can attempt to predict how they'll tackle this one. Military March, of course, will be tricky to assess on A/W debut after a long absence, but here's how they have raced of late...

We've no out and out front runner here, but Capital Theory won from the front LTO, so might be tempted to take it on here, whilst Military March won the Group 3 Dubai Autumn Stakes from the front four years ago; Wootton'Sun, Omniscient and Blanchland have all also set the pace in one of their last four runs.

Summary

On past achievements, Military March should be absolutely thrown in on handicap debut off a mark of 107. I know it's more gut feeling than fact, but Godolphin don't bring horses back after three years off if they're no good and this makes him the one to beat here, but I'm not backing him at 11/4 or 3/1 taking fitness on trust, so I'll look elsewhere for a bet.

Wynter Wildes won nicely last time out and although up in class, she's carrying two stones less than the above-mentioned fav and at 14/1 could be a nice E/W bet, especially with most firms paying four places. I also like Haunted Dream and Valsad as potential placers, but 13/2 isn't quite long enough for me.

One that could be a bet at 8/1 or bigger is LTO winner Capital Theory, but the main interest in this race has to be how former star Military March fares on comeback, I wish him well.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 16/10/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 3.45 Windsor
  • 3.50 Gowran Park
  • 4.10 Musselburgh
  • 8.00 Kempton
  • 8.30 Kempton

The highest rated of the UK races above also has an interesting pace profile, so that's where I'm headed. The race itself is the 4.10 Musselburgh, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a right-handed 7f on good/good to soft ground. The card looks like this...

...whilst the average pace profile of the runners based on their last four outings suggests that Glorious Angel and Mubhijah from stalls 2 and 4 might well set the tempo of the contest...

The latter of that pair is the only LTO winner in the field, having finally got her nose in front after three successive runner-up finishes. She'd actually made the frame in seven of eight races before that resounding six length victory at Carlisle a month ago, making her the form horse in the pack. Elsewhere, only Glorious Angel and Rock Melody are winless in seven or more, whilst Sibyl Charm is a five-race maiden.

That said, it won't be as easy for Mubhijah here, as she's up two classes here, whilst Shades of Summer, Mersea and Lady Mojito all step up one level. Conversely, the top two in the weights, Kitai and Glorious Angel both drop down a class and bottom weight Biplane is down two classes after running in a Listed event at Redcar nine days ago. That gap from her last race is the same as Mersea's nine-day break and they're the two turned back out quickest.

Most of the field have, in fairness, raced in the last month or so, but Lady Mojito has been off for two months and Sibyl Charm hasn't raced for almost fifteen weeks, during which she has moved from Joseph Patrick O'Brien's yard and now makes a debut for Iain Jardine, whilst Rock Melody wears cheekpieces for the first time.

Sibyl Charm is, of course, still a maiden so obviously has no wins at neither trip nor track and Kitai, Mubhijah and Mersea have also yet to win over this distance, whilst Rock Melody is the sole previous Musselburgh winner, having raced here five times already, all over 5f, finishing 43112.

Whilst this is a 3yo+ race, only three of the field (Shades of Summer, Rock Melody & Biplane) are actually older than three and as a result are 2lbs worse off at the weights, due to the 3yo weight for age allowance afforded to the other half dozen.

Instant Expert says that none of these are perfect standout candidates, but that Kitai might well enjoy the expected conditions...

...although she is 5lbs higher than her last win. Glorious Angel seems to have struggled to win on similar going with a similar story for Rock Melody on both Class and trip, whilst the place data for the field looks like this...

...where I still have concerns about both Glorious Angel and Rock Melody over today's trip. The former is expected to be one of the pacemakers according tot he average pace profile I posted earlier and she's drawn low here in stall 2, but I don't expect her draw to give her any advantage or disadvantage, based on how over 100 past similar contests have gone...

...which leads us back to where we started and the daily feature, the Pace tab. I showed you that the average pace profile over four races for this field looked like this...

...and that prediction is based on the following...

...and those individual races suggest that both Lady Mojito and Sibyl Charm might actually race a little further back than their average indicated, giving the top two on the chart an almost free run early on, so let's check how those 100+ races (that we used for the draw stats) above have gone re: pace...

...and that's pretty clear, isn't it?

Summary

Glorious Angel and Mubhijah from stalls 2 and 4 look like being handed a soft early opportunity to dictate events from the front and the latter is definitely the form horse irrespective of a two-step up in class and Mubhijah would be my one to beat here. I'm not surprised that she's the early 5/2 favourite. That price isn't particularly generous, but it's probably about right, all things considered.

Glorious Angel should be able to hang on for a place, but at 11/2 isn't the kind of price I place E/W bets at, but I expect her to be in the mix. Elsewhere I like the look of Kitai and Mersea and with them being priced up at 4/1 and 9/1 with Hills, the latter would be the one I'd consider for a small E/W punt.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 11/10/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.35 Punchestown
  • 4.30 Ludlow
  • 4.57 Nottingham
  • 5.45 Sedgefield
  • 8.30 Kempton

...whilst my own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following on 14-day form...

and for 30-day form...

and course 5-year form...

Of all the races listed above from both the 'free' list and the report qualifiers, the highest rated is the 5.05 Ludlow, where the in-form Twiston-Davies yard send Topofthecotswolds to take on 5 rivals in a Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right handed three miles on good ground...

BACK ON THE LASH was third in a Class 1 handicap at Cheltenham last November, before winning there over the cross country fences in January. Was subsequently pulled up at this year's Festival there and also in the Grand National at Aintree since but he's now down two classes and back to his last winning mark after a six month break. He's 3 from 3 here at Ludlow including a win over course and distance.

LE CAMELEON won a Class 3 handicap chase here over course and distance in March and was then third here a month later before signing off with another similar result at Kempton. Has been off for nearly six months and has undergone wind surgery in that time, but won this time last year after an equally long absence..

QUICK DRAW also comes back from a six month break and was in fine form last winter finishing 211P3, a poor run at Kempton aside. Yet to win over this trip over fences, but did so over hurdles at Uttoxeter in December 2021. Yard and jockey have good records here.

TOPOFTHECOTSWOLDS hasn't won any of seven outings since scoring here over 3m2f almost a year ago, but hadn't been running terribly before finishing last of six, beaten by 40 lengths at Worcester last month which is a worry. That said, yard and jockey are both in good form and that last win here was off a mark 2lbs higher than his current one and he does drop in class.

JUDGE EARLE is the veteran of the field at 11 yrs of age and was in good form in the summer finishing 112 during July/August. Sadly that took his mark from 105 to 125 and that looked too much for him as he was only 4th of 6 last time out. He's eased a pound here, but needs more help that that in my opinion. Won over this trip at Uttoxeter and now visits Ludlow for the first time.

VOLCANO is 6 from 26 over fences, which is reasonable enough, but 5 of those wins came from 6 outings at Warwick leaving him just 1 from 20 elsewhere! That 1 win did, however, come from 7 previous visits here at Ludlow over course and distance almost three years ago. Hasn't been seen since being pulled up at Ffos Las six months ago and will probably need the run as all six career wins have come within 23 days of his previous run.

Instant Expert suggests Back On The Lash will be best suited by forecasted conditions...

...whilst featured runner Topofthecotswolds has really good place form...

If the field's past few races are anything to go by, then I'd expect Judge Earle and Volcano to be the early pace-setters...

...which, based on past races here at Ludlow, would seem to represent their best chances of doing well today...

Summary

Pacemakers do well here at Ludlow and I'd expect Judge Earle and Volcano to be the early pace-setters. Sadly the latter looks like he's too high in the weights to win and the latter saves his best form for Warwick and will probably also need the run.

Next in line on the pace chart is Back On The Lash, who is down in class and back on his last winning mark. He scored best on Instant Expert too and he'll be well poised to take over from the leaders as they tire. We're not getting rich here, but at 3/1 (Bet365) Back On The Lash would be my pick of the pack.

Le Cameleon returns from a break and wind surgery and I tend not to back horses immediately after wind ops, which leaves me with Topofthecotswolds and Quick Draw.

The latter has excellent place stats over similar conditions, but is still higher than his last winning mark and hasn't been in great form of alter, despite how well his yard are going. Quick Draw, however, was going well at the end of his last campaign and his yard/jockey fare well at this venue. There might not be much to choose between this pair in the end, but the latter is the 9/4 fav with Hills. Bet365 offer 11/1 about Topofthecotswolds and whilst he might need things to fall his way to make the frame, that might not be a bad E/W bet for small change.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 10/10/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with all three seeming worth a second glance if nothing else, whilst as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.12 Leicester
  • 4.10 Punchestown
  • 4.20 Huntingdon
  • 4.32 Leicester
  • 5.30 Huntingdon

And the highest rated of the UK races above is the 4.32 Leicester, an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good to soft ground that will be better in palces...

Top weight Box to Box won last time out and has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last five outings, whilst Forceful Speed has won three on the bounce and is five from his last eight. Kitsune Power and The City's Phantom are the only ones without a win in their visible formline.

Forceful Speed is up a class here, though, as is fast finishing Fantasy Believer, whilst Beraz, Kitsune Power and James McHenry all drop down a level. Beraz, Chelsea Green, James McHenry and Zirhab have yet to win over today's trip, but the latter has won here over a mile; Kitsune Power is the only other previous course winner, having scored over 7f back in April 2022.

Five of this field (Chelsea Green, Forceful Speed, James McHenry, Intricacy and Ziryab) recieve a 4lb weight allowances as three year olds, whilst the last three of thse five listed are running for the first time since being gelded. That said, Ziryab's 81-day absence is the longest of all eleven runners with six of his opponents having raced in the last four weeks.

Instant Expert says...

...that plenty of these have shown an aptitude/liking for one or more of today's expected conditions without too many alarm belles ringing in my head. On the basis of the above, Box To Box looks well suited, despite a 3lb weight rise and Forceful Speed will certainly get the trip. The place stats from those races above looks like this...

...where again Box To Box looks the one to beat. Intricacy scores well here too, of course. He's drawn right out in stall 11 of 11, but past similar contests suggest that this wouldn't necessarily ruin his chances...

...as it's the lower end of the draw that seems to have come out worst, although that's not totally bad news for Ziryab in stall 1, as the following breakdown shows...

All of which tempts me to say that the draw might well play second fiddle to the pace of the contest in determining who wins here and if we look at those races above, the data says that you don't want to be dawdling early on...

...which would suit up to a half-dozen of these, based on the way they've approached their last four races...

Summary

The obvious starting point for me has to be Box To Box. He's in great form, scored well (the best) on Instant Expert, is drawn high enough not to be classed as a low draw and will set the tempo of the contest. He's currently 8/1 wit Betfair/PP, so that's an E/W bet in my eyes.

Whether he wins or not might well depend on how close Forceful Speed sticks to him. This 3yr old is flying right now, having won his last three and is unpenalised for his last success; a similar run here makes him difficult to beat and the market reflects this with him being the 3/1 fav.

These are the two that interest me the most and I don't see there being too much between them. As for another runner for the frame, I'd probably side with the 5/1 Intricacy. He's in good nick, has the eight allowance and Instant Expert says he's a regular placer. He's too short for an E/W bet in my eyes, but I expect him to be in the mix.

Racing Insights, Saturday 07/10/2023

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following couple of runners for me to look at...

1-year form...

course 5-year form...

...plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.50 Ascot
  • 2.55 Curragh
  • 3.35 Ascot
  • 4.00 Fontwell
  • 6.00 Wolverhampton
  • 7.30 Wolverhampton

...the best of which, on paper at least, is the first on the list, the 1.50 Ascot, a 9-runner, 3yo+ Listed Flat race over a straight 5f  on good ground...

Glamorous Breeze and Korker both won last time out, but the former steps up from Class 4 to run here, whilst the latter is up one class, as is fellow joint top weight Chipstead, who now wears cheekpieces for the first time. The other joint top weight, Emaraaty Ana is the highest rated and is at least 3lbs 'well-in' with all his rivals, but is one of only two runners (Rage of Bamby being the other) without a win in his recent formline, but he has been second and third in two Listed events in his last two outings.

Zudu Spirit makes a UK debut here and will sport a first-time tongue tie on his opening effort for new trainer George Boughey some two months after his last French run for Mauricio Delcher-Sanchez at Deauville; the rest of the field have all raced in the last month or so with only Rage of Bamby yet to win over today's trip. With regards to previous Ascot runs, only Rage of Bamby and Zudu Spirit have yet to run at Ascot, but Instant Expert says the other half dozen runners are a combined 0 from 15 here!

Zudu Spirit has no previous UK form, hence the blank line of data. Elsewhere Emaraaty Ana looks weak, but does get the trip with only Chipstead having a better strike rate over 5f. For consistency, Nymphadora probably shades it, but there's not much to writhe home about from those win stats, so let's check place form...

...which represents a complete turnaround for Emaraaty Ana, who now looks the one to beat on the above data with Designer now looking the weakest. I often revert to place for if there isn't much 'green' on the win stats!

The draw stats for the small number of previous past similar races suggest that there is very little/no advantage in being drawn in any particular stall from either a win or place basis...

...whilst the pace stats for those races say that leaders do very well at making the frame but are often beaten by those racing prominently just behind...

...as only 10% of the leaders who made the frame managed to hold on to win, whilst 61.5% of the prominent running placers managed to beat the leader home. If we look at the field's recent outings...

...it looks like Emaraaty Ana and Nymphadora might well be allowed to dictate terms here with not many of the others looking like they'd want to go with them and based on those pace averages above, our pace/draw heat map looks like this...

Summary

For me, Emaraaty Ana and Nymphadora are the best two runners in the race and they look like they'll control things from the front. The former holds the advantage in terms of ratings to weight carried, but hasn't won for a while, whilst the latter won a Listed race recently and was a runner-up beaten by just a neck in a Group 3 last time out.

On that basis, Nymphadora looks better value at 11/2 than Emaraaty Ana does at 9/4. As for a third horse for the frame, I fancy Rage of Bamby and Korker to go well and I'd probably sway towards the former based on ratings/weight, even though the latter won last time out. This pair are 6/1 and 4/1 respectively so no E/W pick there.

If I was to try and highlight one that might go well at a bigger price, then maybe Designer at 12's might be the one, but she'd need some luck to get ahead of a couple of the others I've mentioned.

Racing Insights, Friday 06/10/2023

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded just two UK qualifiers...

...but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Downpatrick
  • 4.07 Fontwell
  • 4.30 Ascot
  • 5.10 Newcastle
  • 6.00 Dundalk
  • 6.45 Newcastle

...and of the six UK races above (from the report and the free list), I'm going to look at the 4.30 Ascot, an 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed two miles on good ground, that will be softer in places...

No LTO winners here, but Art de Vivre, Brave Knight, El Jasor and Sea Stone all won their penultimate starts and the latter was third last time out, as was Oceanline.

Hy Brasil has been off the track the longest at 151 days but he now returns for a second crack at winning a handicap and is tongue-tied for the first time, whilst all his rivals have raced in the last five weeks or so. He's also stepping up a class from his last run, as are Oceanline and Brave Knight. Educator actually drops down a level, but bottom weight Art de Vivre is up two classes here.

Art de Vivre, is however, one of three 3 yr olds in the field along with El Jasor and Brave Knight and they'll get a useful 9lbs weight allowance for their age. None of this field have won here at Ascot before (mind you, only two have raced here), but three (Sea Stone, Brave Knight & Art de Vivre) have won over a two-mile trip.

Instant Expert looks like this...

...with Alright Sunshine relishing the going and the class of race, but not the track nor trip! Sea Stone probably looks the best, but there's not much to work with here, so let's look at place form...

I think that suggests Alright Sunshine isn't going to enjoy the 2m trip here and indeed, his best Flat form has been over 1m4f. He has, however got a decent record over hurdles at this class/trip, so all might not be lost, as shown below for all codes...

...but it's still Sea Stone from that for me. Alright Sunshine does look capable of a place and although I suspect the draw shouldn't be making or breaking a runner's chance here, he has bagged stall 1. The draw stats for similar past races say...

...that there is no real discernible draw bias at play here and that we'd be better off focusing on the pace of the race, where the key to winning here seems to be a prominent/leading run...

...with hold-up horses struggling most to make the frame. Our field's last few outings have gone as follows...

...with the top four of obvious interest.

Summary

The above analysis doesn't reflect this, but Sea Stone is the one to beat here in my opinion. He's in the best form and still looks ahead of the assessor, but I can't back him at 5/2, as those odds reflect poor value in a competitive race like this, plus he doesn't fit my profiling above 😉

Brave Knight, El Jasor, Hy Brasil & Art de Vivre are prominent/leading types and I want to focus on this quartet. I'm against Hy Brasil due to his layoff, handicap inexperience, class rise and a lack of form, but the other three all won two starts ago and that form allied to their likely running style makes them decent options to make the frame.

Sadly they're all currently priced at 5/1 or shorter, so I own't be having an E/W bet here, but this trio and Sea Stone should be the ones filling the places.

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 04/10/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.05 Bangor
  • 2.20 Catterick
  • 2.50 Catterick
  • 4.25 Navan
  • 5.12 Nottingham

...whilst my own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following...

14-day form

course 5-year form

Of all those races above, the one featuring Charlie Appleby's Mischief Magic is the highest-rated, so we're going to look at the 6.30 Kempton, a 7-runner, Class 2, A/W 3yo + contest over a right-handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack...

None of these won last time out and only Aramis Grey had a top three finish, but all bar Desert Cop, Baldomero and Misty Grey have at least one win in their recent form lines. Brad The Brief and featured runner Mischief Magic have the benefit of dropping down from runs at Listed class and Group 1 respectively and the latter is a former Group 3 winner.

He hasn't raced for almost 15 weeks, but Baldomero has been off for nearly 18 weeks and Never Just A Dream hasn't been seen of eight months and would probably need the run. As well as dropping in class, Brad The Brief wears cheekpieces for the first time and Mischief Magic runs for the first time since being gelded.

All bar Baldomero have won at this trip already, but he has at least won here at Kempton (Class 2, 1m2f, 17 months ago), whilst Desert Cop, Aramis Grey and Mischief Magic are all course and distance winners, as shown on Instant Expert...

...which suggests that Baldomero might well be outclassed based on a 1 in 10 record at C2 and that Aramis Grey (1/7) might also struggle. From the above, Desert Cop, Mischief Magic and Never Just A Dream are the eye-catchers.

The draw stats from similar past races have suggested that a low draw is preferable...

...along with a willingness to get on with things...

...which looks like more good news for Never Just A Dream...

If we combine the pace & draw stats, we get the following pace/draw heat map...

...where Never Just A Dream would sit in the Mid/Led 15.52% sector, which is probably as good as we're getting for this field...

Summary

Never Just A Dream should be my pick here based purely on the above and at 11/1, he'd make a decent E/W bet. He scores well on Instant Expert, has the best pace profile in the race and is drawn close enough to the lower end to not be adrift, but he hasn't raced since appearing at Meydan eight months ago and tackles polytrack for the first time. Those two negatives even outweigh the booking of James Doyle and stops me from backing him to win.

I suspect the winner will be our featured runner, Mischief Magic. Charlie Appleby's horses are flying right now and this horse is the class horses in the race. He's a former Group 3 winner who drops down from Group 1 to run here, he's easily the highest rated and has won over course and distance. His jockey/trainer combined to win this race two years ago and I expect them to land it again this year.

Sadly, we're not getting rich here, though, as Mischief Magic is currently Even money with Hills (only book open right now). I expected him to be short, but not this short, I was rather hoping for around 6/4, but you can't always get what you want!

Brad the Brief also drops in class and should go well, but 7/2 isn't E/W territory for me.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 03/10/23

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Greetings from Sunny Santorini, where the wifi seems to be fairly stable, so let's crack on before it goes down!

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the first four named are of more obvious immediate interest than the others, whilst as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.00 Galway
  • 3.22 Ayr
  • 4.05 Southwell
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

...with the 'best' (class/on paper) of them being the 3.22 Ayr, a 7-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 7f (plus 59yds) on soft ground...

Three of this field, Master Zoffany, Autumn Festival and William Dewhurst managed to win last time out, but the latter pait are up 1 and 2 classes respectively, whilst the former actually drops down from Class 2, as do Sirona, Abduction and On A Session for a race where all seven runners are class movers with Rock Melody also up one class. He was actually placed third last time out, but along with Sirona and On A Session, is winless in his recent formline.

All bar William Dewhurst have won over today's trip and by virtue of winning this race last year, Abduction is the sole course (course & distance) winner and all runners have had at least one outing in the past month.

Instant Expert says...

...that Autumn Festival loves the soft ground and has a great record over today's type of trip and that Abduction has a poor win record at this grade but loves it here at Ayr. On A Session looks vulnerable at the distance and no runner is below their last Flat winning mark; Sirona has yet to win a handicap, but does have good place form from an albeit limited number of qualifying runs...

...where Autumn Festival is again the eyecatcher, but good to see that three of these have gone well on soft ground in the past.

The Draw Analyser says...

...that there's not a great deal to be gained/lost from whichever stall a runner is allocated and this is backed up by the PRB3 stats...

...which would lead me to assume that the race is going be decided by tactics and how the race is approached.

And the Pace Analyser says...

...that horses racing prominently or leading go on to win 70.5% of the races, despite providing just 52.4% of the runners, with those who led easily faring best. This field's most recent outings have looked like this...

...with both Sirona snd On A Session both having three prominent runs from four, but no obvious pace maker here, although Autumn Festival ended a nine-race losing run by making all last time out and did win five on the bounce from the front from July to October last year. The return to front-running tactics heralded the end of the losing run and I can see him setting pace here.

Summary

Autumn Festival won last time out, making all and similar tactics here will be very helpful in his bid to follow up. He has the best soft ground form of this field and was the Instant Expert eyecatcher, so at 11/4 with Hills, he's my pick.

Master Zoffany also won last time out and drops in class, but a lack of early pace might well be his undoing. I expect him to come strongly late on, but he might just fail to get up.

Aside from those two, I've no real strong feelings about the race, although Sirona might well outrun her 12/1 odds if your bookie is paying three places, as many are.

Racing Insights, Saturday 30/09/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

1-year form...

5-year course form...

One of those races is a 34-runner affair and the other a Class 6 Nursery, so I'm grateful that as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 2.25 Newmarket
  • 4.00 Gowran Park
  • 4.30 Market Rasen
  • 4.45 Killarney
  • 5.15 Ripon
  • 5.40 Market Rasen

The first of those six races is clearly the 'best' on paper, as it's a Group 1 race worth over £150k to the winner, but I'm not big into 2yr old races, so we're going jumping in Lincolnshire as we look at the 4.30 Market Rasen, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m½f on good ground...

Princess T and Coolnaugh Haze both won last time out, but the latter's stablemate Enthused is the form horse coming here seeking a hat-trick and has seven top 3 finishes (inc 3 wins) in a row. Addosh and Stonific are the only two without a win in their race-card form line after nine and eleven consecutive defeats respectively.

Their chances of ending their losing runs aren't helped by them both stepping up two classes here, as do Chance A Tune (who hasn't raced for over two years!) and Coolnaugh Haze. The veteran of the race, the 12yo Mcgroarty, however, drops down in class after finishing eighth in a Listed event at Auteuil.

Chance a Tune is the only one yet to win over a similar trip, whilst Mcgroarty, Addosh and Stonific have actually won over course and distance; none of the others have won here before, though. As mentioned above, it's more than two years since Chance A Tune was last seen and although his record in 2021 read 1432, I suspect he might well need the run here. The others have no such worries and have all raced in the past 11-42 days.

Relevant past results can be seen via Instant Expert...

...where Castel Gandolfo looks weak on going, class and trip whilst remaining 5lbs above his last winning mark. Glorious Zoff is 9lbs higher than his last win and his record on good ground and over this trip also look suspect. Old-hand Mcgroarty looks like he'll enjoy the conditions, but he also hasn't raced in the UK for almost two years, having raced a dozen times in France instead, winning twice in July.

As for place form in those races above, that looks like this...

...where top and bottom weighted horses look most vulnerable and Castel Gandolfo's numbers are very good, considering how few of those races he has actually won. Coolnaugh Haze has no Class 2 form, but was a consistent placer at Class 3.

Bearing Chance A Tune's lengthy absence in mind, the pace scores might not quite be accurate here, but if he runs the same way as he used to, then I suspect he's going to be the one setting the pace here with a whole bunch of horses stalking him ready to pounce as he tires. I'd also expect the likes of Addosh, Stonific and Glorious Zoff to be held up for a late run, based on the evidence of their last four outings...

It is entirely possible, of course that Liverpool Knight (pace scores of 414 in his last three) won't let Chance A Tune dominate and going with him early would appear to be the best tactic, based on how over 100 past similar races have panned out...

Summary

Chance A Tune is likely to fade (IMO) and I think the pace will do for the chances of Addosh, Stonific and Glorious Zoff and the first two of that trio are in dreadful form anyway. Of the remaining seven, none really jump out and scream 'back me!', but based on the evidence above, I'm drawn to LTO winner Coolnaugh Haze and he's currently a 5/1 shot with Hills.

Elsewhere I think that perpetual 'places often, but doesn't win enough' Castel Gandolfo will do the same again ie be close but not close enough and he's 13/2 if that's long enough for you to go E/W, whilst the in-form and current fav Enthused is sure to be in the mix.

If I wanted to take a punt on one that might outrun his odds, then the 18/1 Mcgroarty might do the trick for E/W bettors, especially if you can get four places.

Good luck and have a great weekend!
Chris

PS a heads up...I'm off to Greece on Saturday morning and won't be home until Wednesday 18th October. I will, of course, endeavour to write this column every day, ship/resort wi-fi permitting, but the timing of my posts might vary. There won't be a preview for Monday 2nd, Monday 9th nor Wednesday 18th, but I'll do my best for the remainder!

Racing Insights, Friday 29/09/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers, but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.05 Gowran Park
  • 2.35 Haydock
  • 3.00 Newmarket
  • 5.30 Newcastle
  • 5.35 Gowran Park
  • 7.00 Newcastle

We've had almost a constant deluge of rain in the North West for some while now, which could make life tricky for some runners, so I'm interested in the Haydock card. The free race on the card is for 2yo maiden fillies, which is almost as far removed from anything I like as you could possibly get, but I'm 'staying local' for the last on the card, the 5.25 Haydock. It's a competitive-looking (at first glance, anyway) 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed mile on soft/heavy ground...

Bottom weight Beccara Rose was the only one of the group to win last time out, but Pearl Eye was a runner-up and has been in the frame in 10 of his 11 starts over the last year, winning five times. Rhythm n Rock is the only one without a win in six, having made the frame just once in that run after finishing 3113 in his first four outings.

Only Shahbaz and LTO winner Beccara Rose ran at this grade last time around, as Harswell Duke, Conservationist and the in-form Pearl Eye all step up from Class 4 whilst the top two on the card, Liamarty Dreams and Rhythm n Rock both drop down from Class 2, as does the oldest runner (8yo) Young Fire.

Young Fire is however a former course and distance winner, as are the three year olds Conservationist and Pearl Eye. Liamarty Dreams has also won here at Haydock, scoring over 7f sixteen months ago, whilst Rhythm n Rock, Harswell Duke and Beccara Rose have all won over a mile on other tracks with the latter getting off the mark over this trip at Kempton three weeks ago, but she does look better on the A/W.

Young Fire was actually in action as recently as Tuesday when beaten by 4.5 lengths on soft ground at a higher grade at Nottingham, so he's back out quickly in a field where all runners have seen some action in the last eight weeks (most in the last four!).

Beccara Rose's LTO (and sole) win came on the all-weather, so that won't appear on the flat stats provided by Instant Expert...

...where the in-form Pearl Eye looks like the standard-bearer. Harswell Duke wouldn't mind even more rain to drop, but his Class 3 win record isn't the best. Elsewhere, there are question marks over Young Fire's 3 from 26 at the trip and he'd probably prefer his races to be a little shorter, although he has made the frame in 4 of those 22 defeats (18.2%) as shown below...

...where again Pearl Eye looks the best suited. Young Fire has been consistent on soft ground and loves it here at Haydock, where he has finished 1114 on soft, whilst Shahbaz has been knocking on the door for a Class 3 win and those last two mentioned seem to be in the 'best' part of the draw, as our draw analyser suggests that the winners of similar races have come from stalls 2 to 5

...with those drawn 1 to 5 making the places most often. That's not ideal for the in-form eyecatcher Pearl Eye, but he is only one berth outside that corridor of runners. The pace data for those 30-odd races above point to those making the running faring best of all...

...which again isn't the best news for Pearl Eye, as recent evidence suggests he'll be nearer the back of the field with Rhythm n Rock and Young Fire, whilst the likes of Liamarty Dreams and Conservationist set the tempo...

All isn't lost, though, as when we combine pace & draw together, only Shahbaz looks like being inconvenienced and even then, he's pretty close to being in the green...

Summary

The pace/draw heat map suggests that any of these can win from any stall and if it's that open/competitive, I want to be with Pearl Eye. He's in great form (1321311 over this trip) and has won on both soft and heavy. He's currently 7/2 and that's probably a fair assessment of his chances.

Had this race been elsewhere on better ground, I'd probably not be interested in Young Fire, but he's a different animal on the soft ground at Haydock and at 9/1 with Bet365, I like him as an E/W possible. As for another placer, you could make a claim for most of them if truth be told, but only Harswell Duke is at an E/W price. He's 18/1 right now and on his form from October '22 to April this year, he'd be a cracking bet, but hasn't looked the same animal since taking the summer off. Perhaps it'll all click back into place?

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 28/09/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.40 Bellewstown
  • 2.10 Pontefract
  • 4.10 Newmarket
  • 4.15 Clonmel
  • 4.30 Pontefract

The three free UK races above are a Class 6 Apprentice Handicap, a 4-runner affair and a Nursery respectively and none of those appeal to me at all, so with feature of the day in mind, I'm looking elsewhere and I've spotted something that piqued my interest.

The 7yr old mare Gale Force Maya was withdrawn from a race I covered last week, but she's set to re-appear in the 3.00 Newmarket on Thursday a race she won in 2021 and Instant Expert suggests she'll have favourable conditions (more on this shortly, of course!) again.

The race itself, is an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground that will be good in places due to the showers forecast...

Frankness is our sole LTO winner, but Al Simmo was a one-length runner-up behind her that day and Minnetonka also finished second on her last run. All bar featured horse Gale Force Maya, Sweet Harmony and Ivory Madonna have won at least once in their last seven outings, but this trio is winless in 7, 9 and 9 days respectively, the latter still being a maiden after 9 efforts.

In a bid to break her cold spell, Gale Force Maya will wear blinkers for the first time, whilst Kinta and Ivory Madonna will have their first outings in a hood and a visor respectively. The latter steps up one class here, as do River Pride and Alcazan, whilst Urban Decay is up two levels. Sweet Harmony, however, steps down to Class 2 after running in a Listed race at Ayr last week.

At 6 days rest, she's turned back out the quickest, although all the field bar Gale Force Maya (33 days off) have raced in the last three weeks. The latter's success in this race two years ago makes her the only previous course (and CD) winner, but all of her rivals except River Pride, Ivory Madonna and Urban Decay have scored over today's trip, as shown by Instant Expert...

Gale Force Maya is far more experienced under these conditions, but has a good set of results behind her and at 7lbs lower than her last winning mark, could well be dangerously weighted here. The only cause for concern from that data above is Alcazan's 1 from 9 on the going, but she has at least made the frame in two of the eight defeats, putting a slightly better perspective on her place stats...

...which again point to a big run from Gale Force Maya. Al Simmo's place percentages are even better than GFM's, though and if she's likely to do well, then we also need to add Frankness into the mix, as she beat Al Simmo last time out, but she is 3lbs worse off here. This trio are drawn pretty close together in stalls 4, 6 and 7 and our draw analyser suggests that Al Simmo (in #4) might have a bit of an advantage over the other pair...

...and this will be of interest to followers of River Pride, who has the rail and a decent set of Instant Expert place stats, but he'll have to be away sharper than he has in his last two outings...

...because those races I've used for the draw analysis have favoured those setting the pace...

...meaning that ideally we'd be on one drawn relatively low with a penchant for early speed...

...and with our race's heat map looking like this...

...some clearly make more appeal than others.

Summary

For me, based on the data above, it's Al Simmo for me at 5/1. She's in good nick and only lost narrowly last time out. She scored well on Instant Expert and seems to have the best pace/draw make-up of the field.

If Al Simmo is my pick, then Frankness won't be too far away based on their match three weeks ago. Gale Force Maya was the pick on Instant Expert, has won this race before and looks dangerously weighted, whilst Executive Decision has three wins and a runner-up finish from her last six efforts over a similar trip, so she can't be discounted either.

Al Simmo and this trio should contain the first three home and the challenging trio are currently 7/2, 7/1 and 7/1 respectively, so I wouldn't be suggesting Frankness as an E/W option.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 27/09/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.00 Bellewstown
  • 2.10 Sligo
  • 3.40 Goodwood
  • 5.02 Redcar
  • 7.30 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have sadly yielded no UK qualifiers, so I'm going to take a look at the 3.40 Goodwood, an 8-runner, 3yo+, Listed flat race over a right-handed 1m2f on soft/heavy ground...

Bill Silvers and Sierra Blanca both won their last outings, but both are coming back from lengthy absences of 152 and 325 days respectively, during which time the latter has moved yards from Aidan O'Brien to Freddie & Martyn Meade. My Prospero was a runner-up last time out and all bar Rousay have at least one win in their last five starts, but she has been beaten in each of her last seven since a Listed win 13 months ago.

All bar There's The Door and Bill Silvers raced at Class 1 last time around, but this pair step up 1 and 3 classes respectively and the latter is making little appeal so far! Aside from Bill Silvers and Sierra Blanca coming off breaks, the rest of the field have allr aced in the last two months and the two coming off breaks are the only ones yet to win at this trip.

Three horses have won at this venue before and all three (King of Conquest, Savvy Victory & There's The Door) are former course and distance winners, as shown below on Instant Expert...

...where off admittedly small sample sizes, King of Conquest and There's The Door are the eyecatchers. Rousay looks weak at course/distance and Savvy Victory has struggled to win Class 1 contests with a 1 in 7 record. He has only made the frame on one of his six defeats at C1 too, as seen in these place stats...

...where again King of Conquest and There's The Door score well, as do My Prospero and Persist. My Prospero's record at Class 1 reads 133442 with a Listed success and two narrow defeats when third home at Gr 1. He was a runner-up beaten by just half a length in a Gr 2 at York last time out and sets the standard on form here. He's drawn in the high third of the draw today over a track/trip/going that hasn't actually shown much of a draw bias...

...so none of this field should feel they're already at a disadvantage based on which stall they've been allocated, but the pace profiling does have a bearing on the outcome, as those races above have favoured runners willing to take it on early...

...essentially suggesting that the further forward a horse runs, the greater the chance of success and that's repeated in the place data too; those racing prominently or leading have bagged 55.74% of the places from just 45.28% of the runners, which is 23% more than expected.

Sadly, there doesn't seem to be a front-runner in this pack, although King of Conquest set the pace when wining at Newmarket in May (four races back)...

...and we may end up with a falsely run race, which would play into the hands of the better quality runners.

Summary

Based on past exploits, My Prospero has to be the one to beat. His Class 1 form is excellent and ran really well last time out. His pace profile suggests he's going to be handily placed to keep an eye on what's going on around him and if he 'gets' the soft/heavy ground, should be landing this one. The problem for me is that he's 8/13 and 8/15 with the two firms showing prices and that's way too short for me for a horse with no heavy ground experience and just one outing on soft.

That's not to say he won't 'get' the ground and go on to win, of course, but I see little value in the odds available. A positive side to such a short fav is that we might get better E/w prices about others and the one I fancy as the main challenge has to be King of Conquest. He ticked the Instant Expert box and might well set the tempo here and he's currently 13/2, which is a little longer than I thought he'd be, if truth be told.

That's still a little on the short side for an E/W bet, though, so if you wanted to look further down the card/odds, bottom weight There's The Door might be the one at 20/1!

Racing Insights, Tuesday 26/09/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where I suppose Holkham Bay would be of the most obvious immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 1.20 Cork
  • 2.25 Lingfield
  • 4.15 Cork
  • 4.35 Beverley
  • 8.00 Newcastle

To be honest, none of the UK 'free' races nor those on The Shortlist float my boat today, so I'm looking elsewhere for my column. Nottingham has a handful of Class 2 handicaps, the middle one of which is the 4.25 Nottingham, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a eft-handed 1m2f on good to soft/soft ground...

Olympicus and Eton College both won last time out, but Golden Maverick, Warren Hill, Damascus Steel, Jewel Maker and Ectocross all have wins in their recent formlines. None of these raced at Class 2 last time around, in fact they're all up in class by two to four levels and all raced in the last six weeks.

Warren Hill and Damascus Steel are former course and distance winners, but only Eton College (1m½f) of their rivals has won here before, but all bar Gordon Grey (first-time cheekpieces today), Hakuna Babe, Eton College, The Conqueror and Corsican Caper (first-time blinkers today) have won over today's trip, as verified by Instant Expert...

...which looks good for Golden Maverick, based on the going and the trip. He's never been to Nottingham before and has no Class 2 experience, but neither really have his rivals. Jewel Maker looks up against on the going, though, failing to win any of 18 attempts and the place data below says he's only made the frame in three of those races...

The ones faring best on the place data would be Damascus Steel, Eton College, Golden Maverick and Warren Hill and this quartet are drawn together in stalls 7 to 10 over a track and trip that has marginally favoured those drawn lowest...

...and also those preferring to set the pace...

Again, the bias isn't huge but when you align the draw stats that just about favour the low drawn horses with the pace stats that are slightly for those setting the tempo, the pace/draw heat map shows more of a combined bias...

...with low drawn leaders making the frame in 13 of 29 efforts (44.8%), going on to win six times (20.7%)...

Sadly, there aren't many here who like to lead and I suspect we're in for a falsely run race...

Summary

We're not actually getting much help from the pace/draw angles here but we know that Olympicus, Eton College, Golden Maverick, Warren Hill, Damascus Steel, Jewel Maker and Ectocross are all in decent nick and that Damascus Steel, Eton College, Golden Maverick and Warren Hill caught my eye on Instant Expert, which makes the trio of Eton College, Golden Maverick and Warren Hill of interest to me here.

This trio are priced at 15/2, 4/1 jt fav and 4/1jt fav respectively and if pushed to make a bet on one to win, I think I'd lean towards Golden Maverick with Eton College a possible E/W bet, especially with some firms paying 4 places.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 25/09/23

/in /by

The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 2.30 Warwick
  • 3.00 Down Royal
  • 3.05 Warwick
  • 3.55 Roscommon
  • 5.30 Wolverhampton

Of the three UK races above, the one with the most variation in runner pace profiles in the 3.05 Warwick, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m4f on good ground...

Glajou won last time out and has a win and two places from his last three starts, as does Gold Link, whilst Are U Wise To That has won two of four, finishing third in his other two starts and runs in a handicap for only the second time. Romanor has lost nine on the bounce, whilst Kadex is a seven-race (placed just once, pulled up three times) maiden.

Are U Wise To That and Notnowlinda have both won at this venue before, but like Haas Boy, Feuille de Lune and Kadex (obviously) have yet to win at a similar trip to this one. These stats are highlighted in Instant Expert, of course...

...where we start with all NH form. Form horses Glajou & Gold Link haven't really fared too well at this going or class and Haas Boy also has a poor record at Class 4, as does Romanor, who is 0/10 at this trip. At present the top of the card looks the place to be, so let's have a quick look at the place stats...

This is an altogether better picture and Gold Link seems to have redeemed himself. I would, however, rule Romanor out at this stage as we move solely to chase form, where only four runners have any data...

...with Blaze A Trail the pick of the bunch. Romanor's numbers are better over fences, but I'd rather back a debutant than back him!

With regards to feature of the day, PACE, similar past races here at Warwick have been won as follows...

...where leaders have tended to struggle. We log the running style of every runner and this is how this field have approached their last four outings...

Blaze A Trail, Stan's The Man and Feuille de Lune look like the ones most likely to set the pace here and I think that will be to the detriment of their chances, even if two already have decent chase records. Those held up for a run have done well here and form horse Glajou is expected to sit and bide his time, as he did over a similar trip at Worcester a fortnight ago, hitting the front four fences out and pulling away to a 12 length victory, without really exerting himself.

Summary

Based on form, the manner of his last win, his liking for this trip and the fact he's a hold-up sort, Glajou is the one to beat here for me and I expect Gold Link to be on the premises too. This pair are currently 3/1 and 7/1 and the latter might well make a decent E/W bet.

Elsewhere Are U Wise To That is of interest if he takes to the larger obstacles, whilst of those with chasing experience, Blaze A Trail might well outrun his 12/1 price ticket. The early pace might put paid to his chances of winning, but he's certainly capable of holding on for a place, especially if you get on with Skybet who pay four places.

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