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Racing Insights, Wednesday 25/10/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.50 Newmarket
  • 3.25 Worcester
  • 3.45 Fontwell
  • 4.10 Newmarket
  • 4.28 Curragh

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have only highlighted Charlie Appleby's record at HQ over the last 5 years and he runs a trio there on Wednesday...

...of which one runs in one of our free races, so let's have a closer look at Mountain Song and the 4.10 Newmarket in general. It's a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ fillies' flat race over a straight mile on soft ground...

Karmology is our sole LTO winner and she's unbeaten in her two starts so far. Zouzanna (a winner in two of her last five), Orzo (won on debut), Prisha (won two starts ago) and Bint Al Daar ( a win and three places from her last five) were all in the frame on their last outings; Rocha Do Leao is the only one yet to win.

Many of these are short on handicap experience and this is just a second effort for both Rocha Do Leao and Prisha, whilst it's handicap debut day for Orzo and hat-trick seeking Karmology. Just two of this field, Morning Poem and Orzo are older than 3 yrs old, so they're technically 3lbs worse off at the weights and the former is now blinkered for the first time, but she does drop down a class here.

She's the only class dropper, as Rocha Do Leao, Prisha and Bint Al Daar all step up a level, whilst Karmology and Orzo are both up two classes. The latter is one of just two (along with Rocha Do Leao) yet to win over a mile. We've no previous course winners, but the field haven't been here that often. Most of them have had an outing in the last month or so and Prisha raced just over seven weeks ago, but featured runner Mountain Song has been off the track for nearly fifteen weeks and Orzo might well beed the run after a 28-week break.

Past form under today's conditions is brought to you by Instant Expert, as usual...

That was always going to look a little sparse with nine runners sharing just fifty-four previous outings, but it's good to see that Choisya has a Class 3 Flat win and she gets the trip. She is, however, 6lbs above her last winning mark and Morning Poem is 7lbs above here. No real causes for alarm here, but Bint Al Daar's record over the trip isn't the best, but the graphic below suggests that she's a regular placer...

...and aside from not having raced in this grade, her place credentials are the best on offer as her Flat form reads 3361322. She did win over a mile here on the July course in August, but is now 8lbs higher that that win, which is probably why she's not winning! Her soft ground form might well be the key here, though. She'll run from stall 3 of 9 here and over a straight mile, you wouldn't expect much of a draw bias, but previous similar races seem to have favoured those drawn higher...

...but I still suspect that pace will be the key here and those races above have been won by a bigger percentage of front-runners/leaders than any other running style...

...although horses racing in mid-division seem to come strong late on to make the frame. This apparent bias towards those willing to take it on early looks like good news for three or four of this field based on recent outings...

If we combine pace and draw, the heat map looks like this...

...with the ideal scenario being the high-drawn leader. Choisya and Karmology look like being the front runners and although stalls 5 and 6 aren't exactly high, the latter is only one berth away from the optimum combination.

Summary

I'll be honest and admit that I'm still a little sceptical about draw bias on a straight track and I'll virtually always veer towards pace as my helper in these situations and as the graphic above shows, there are four best suited by the pace here; Karmology, Choisya, Mountain Song and Orzo and they occupy stalls 4 to 7, so at least none are exactly drawn low.

It's these four that I want as my shortlist, even if Bint Al Daar's place record is excellent. I don't fancy her to win here and at 7/1 I can't back her E/W, although I would be tempted if she drifts.

As for the winner here, Karmology is the horse in form and whilst it's easy to just back the 7/2 fav, I do think she'll go on to win this. the others in that trio are priced at 6/1, 11/2 and 6/1, so that shows how tight this might be and I won't be backing any of them E/W. Again, like Bint Al Daar, I want at least 8's to get involved.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 24/10/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...and as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.30 Exeter
  • 3.10 Hereford
  • 4.00 Exeter
  • 7.30 Wolverhampton

And as one of my runners from The Shortlist is in one of our free races, I think we should look at Ajp Kingdom and his rivals in the 4.00 Exeter, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right handed 2m7f on good ground...

Bottom weight Oceanline and The Imposter both won last time out and the latter has won his last three and has six wins and a runner-up finish from his last seven outings. Goshhowposh and Brave Starlight are both three-race maidens, whilst Royal Pretender and Moka de Vassy are winless in eight and ten races respectively; the former does place regularly though, but the latter is now 0 from 10!

Plenty of these are moving class here with Itso Fury, Go Chique, Ajp Kingdom and Brave Starlight all dropping in from Class 2, whilst the ten-race maiden Moka de Vassy, Goshhowposh and the form horse The Impostor all step up from Class 4.

Goshhowposh and Brave Starlight are both making handicap debuts here today after breaks of 297 and 144 days respectively, but others are returning from layoffs too, as Exmoor Forest, Itso Fury, The Imposter and Royal Pretender have been rested for 165, 199, 20 and 325 days themselves. The other five in the race have all been out in the last six weeks, though.

None of the field have won here at Exeter before, but only three have been here in a total of five races and whilst we also have no 2m7f winners, Ajp Kingdom, Gentleman Valley, Go Chique and The Imposter have all won at both 2m7½f and 3m.

Instant Expert says that this bunch haven't fared too well at this grade and we already know about the lack of course wins...

...but if we're looking at going and distance, then Itso Fury, Gentleman Valley and Ajp Kingdom are the eyecatchers with honourable mentions for Go Chique and The Imposter. Royal Pretender has failed to win any of eight starts at Class 3, but he hasn't struggled in all of them, as the place stats will show...

...in fact his place credentials look pretty good there and he's probably second best on numbers behind Itso Fury.

When it comes to judging the pace of the contest, previous similar races here at Exeter haven't been kind to hold-up horses...

...but thankfully none of these are out and out hold-up types, according to their last few runs...

I'd expect The Imposter and Ajp Kingdom to try to control the race from the front, but they probably won't be able to break clear from a group where all runners bar Goshhowposh have led/ran prominently in at least one of their last four outings and I think we're going to have a fairly tight bunch travelling together.

Summary

This looks a really tight/open race with plenty holding chances. So much so that the early Hills prices for this race only ranged from 6/1 to 12/1 for the whole field and it looks a tough one to call. Personally, I like The Imposter's form and he's very game, I also like the way Itso Fury scored well in the analysis, whilst Ajp Kingdom's place on The Shortlist must stand him in good stead.

Gentleman Valley also scored well on Instant Expert and E/W bettors have done well out of Royal Pretender, who has placed in 8 of his 13 starts over hurdles.

You really could make a case for most of these to put a decent effort in, but the five above would be the ones that interest me most. If pushed to pick a winner, I think I'd go with Itso Fury at 6/1 ahead of he similarly priced The Imposter. As you know I only like to play the E/W markets if I can get 8/1 or bigger, but both Gentleman Valley and Royal Pretender are offered at 10's, so they're options, especially with Betfred, Coral & Skybet all paying four places.

That said, it's not a race to put too much money on, but it could be an interesting watch.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 23/10/23

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It was a good end to the week with the 11/2 Vintage Clarets winning for us at Catterick and with our E/W pick Glorious Angel finishing second, I'm glad a few of you got on. Those who also followed my suggestion that Count D'Orsay could also make the frame were rewarded with a 3rd place run at 16/1. Thanks to all of you who emailed to say that like me, you backed all three and had a nice payout. The tricast was a huge 700/1, but sadly I wasn't on that!

Our new week starts here with a reminder that the pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday. This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for this Monday are...

  • 2.00 Pontefract
  • 2.55 Windsor
  • 5.15 Plumpton
  • 6.30 Southwell
  • 6.40 Wolverhampton

...from which we're staying on the Flat where we've racing's extremes in terms of going and trip for the 2.55 Windsor, an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on heavy ground...

Our sole LTO winner Spoof has won 3 of his last 8, Korker won two starts ago, Chipstead won six ago and Executive Decision is two from four, but unplaced in her last two. Navello also failed to place in his last two, but is two from five, whilst Woolhampton has placed but not won in each of her last three, but did win six races ago. Crimson Sand has been a runner-up in three of seven but hasn't won in 13, whilst bottom weight Punchbowl Flyer brings the worst form to the table, having failed to make the frame in his last 17 races since winning at Windsor way back in June 2021!

Punchbowl Flyer's seemingly lost cause won't be helped by having to step up a class here as does LTO winner Spoof, nor will a two class rise help Crimson Sand's prospects, but the top two in the weights, the in-form Korker and Chipstead, both drop down from Listed class, where they were second (beaten by a neck) and fifth (3L) behind Emaraaty Ana at Ascot sixteen days ago in a race I covered here. So, they both ran 16 days ago and all bar Navello (44 days) and Crimson Sand (189 days) of this field have been in action this month; the latter might well need the run and is probably another nail in the coffin for his chances.

All bar Executive Decision and Punchbowl Flyer have already won over today's trip, but the latter's three wins from 4 over 6f on this track make him, just one of two course winners alongside Spoof who has three wins and three places from nine efforts over course and distance and those course wins are highlighted in Instant Expert...

...where he certainly looks the one to beat, although class-dropping Chipstead has good numbers too. Punchbowl Flyer looks interesting on that graphic, especially off a mark 22lbs below his last win, but as I pointed out earlier, that win was in June 2021 and he hasn't even made the frame in 17 races since. Speaking of making the frame, here's the place data from those races above...

...which pushes the place claims of Chipstead even more. Woolhampton is an interesting sort with a terrible win record across the board under today's conditions, but a regular placer, She has only won one of seventeen on the Flat, but has made the frame on eight occasions. There's no reason to suggest she can't place again here, but I'm wary of backing 1 in 17 types to go on to win. She is drawn lowest of all in stall 1, though and based on past races here at Windsor, that represents her best chances of success today...

...although I wouldn't ever rule any horse out of it based purely on the draw over a straight run. You'll notice that I've had to make some logical tweaks to the parameters above in order to get myself a workable sample size, so we do need to take the data with an element of trust, but if we proceed as it stands, the lower draw looks favourable. That said, it's a straight five and I'm convinced that feature of the day, PACE, should take centre stage, so let's see how those nearly 100 races were won...

...and that's pretty conclusive to me. You need to get out quick and stay out, coming from off the pace is tricky here at Windsor, especially in tricky conditions and the above data is verified by the pace/draw heat map...

If we then look at how this field have approached their last few outings and overlay this data onto the heat map, we get something like this...

...which sadly displays a distinct lack of early pace. However only Spoof has avoided being a hold-up horse of late and Chipstead and Crimson Sand were both prominent last time out.

Summary

Spoof is the course (course & distance specialist) and doesn't tend to be held up, so he's in the frame here. I also think that he's one of the better horses here. Chipstead is interesting from a place perspective and has scored well through my analysis, but doesn't win here in my eyes, as he's held by Korker from last time, which puts Korker on my possibles list too!

I actually prefer Korker to Spoof in terms of quality and the assessor rates him as 9lbs better too, but he's carrying 9-9 on heavy ground, has never run on heavy before and if he's coming from off the pace, it could be tough. I'd rather Korker beat Spoof, but I fear they'll finish the other way around. Either way, I agree with the early market that these two are the ones to beat at 5/2 and 3/1 respectively. Spoof is the course and distance specialist and is proven on heavy ground. he won last time out and he's my marginal pick at 3's today. (I think!)

Eleswhere, Chipstead is only 5/1, so I won't be going E/W there and with only Navello (9/1), Punchbowl Flyer (22/1) and Crimson Sand (28/1) longer than 6/1, there's not much scope for an E/W option for me. Navello would be the one, but I think I'd be wanting at least 12 to 14's if not bigger!

Racing Insights, Saturday 21/10/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated these qualifiers for me to consider...

30-day form...

5-year course form...

...in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 3.05 Ascot
  • 3.35 Newton Abbot
  • 4.08 Market Rasen
  • 4.21 Limerick
  • 4.45 Market Rasen
  • 7.30 Wolverhampton

...and I think we'll have a look at Bergerac and the 3.40 Catterick today. It's an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on soft ground...

The top two in the weights, Vintage Clarets and Wen Moon, both won last time out and Glorious Angel was a runner-up (in a race we covered here on Insights), but Vintage Clarets win was at this grade, whilst the other two are both up a class, as are Strong Johnson, Never Dark, Copper Knight, Dickieburd and Count D'Orsay!

Manila Scouse and Bergerac did run at Class 2 last time though, but bottom weight Zargun is up two classes despite not winning any of his last 16 outings; Bergerac and Count D'Orsay are winless in eight and nine respectively.

All of these have had at least one run in the last four weeks with most having raced last Friday at York finishing 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th, 8th and 10th, whilst Bergerac was withdrawn...

Zargun may well be out of form right now, but he won this race two years ago, making him one of four course and distance winners along with Manila Scouse, Dickieburd and Count D'Orsay, who won this race four years ago. None of the others have won here at Catterick, but all bar Bergerac have won over today's trip; his 'best' form has been over 6f so far and his failures at 5f are highlighted by Instant Expert...

...which suggests that Wen Moon and Never Dark will be much more at home on soft ground than the likes of Manila Scouse and Zargun, whilst most of these have toiled in this grade. Copper Knight is easily the most experienced here and has clocked up 10 wins from his 58 efforts at Class 2, which is a respectable 17.24% SR. Aside from Wen Moon's small number of qualifying runs above, there's not a great deal to shout about here, so let's check the place stats from those races...

...where Wen Moon and Manila Scouse have the best numbers and with no green for place form in any of going, class, course or distance, I'm happy to discount the claims of Bergerac, Never Dark, Copper Knight and Strong Johnson, who come from stalls 4, 7, 8 and 10, so I'm hoping that if there's a draw bias at all, it favours those drawn lowest!

Sadly for me and my reckoning, that's not the case...

...but that doesn't mean we can't still be on the right track. At the end of the day, it's a 5f dash over a straight track and there really shouldn't be massive advantages from a particular stall and it's generally pace that wins the race over the minimum trip and here at Catterick, those 30-odd races above back up my theory...

...and this is backed up by the three best pace/draw combo positions all being taken by horses who led...

...and based on recent performances, this could mean another big run from Glorious Angel. She was in a race we covered last week and was only headed very late on, going down by a neck and looking at her last four runs, I suspect she'll attempt to make all here again...

...which gives us the following heat map...

Summary

From our pace/draw heat map, Glorious Angel looks to have a great chance of at least making the frame and at an early price of 9/1, I'd be inclined to have a small E/W bet on her. She has been the runner-up in three of her last five, but is on a long losing run, so for me Wen Moon and Vintage Claret are the ones to beat.

The latter doesn't look too good on that heat map, but raced prominently last time and beat Wen Moon by a neck in a big-field £30k handicap at York. He's actually 3lbs better off with the runner-up here, so with a similar approach in this race, I'd take the 4/1 Vintage Clarets to beat the 3/1 Wen Moon.

Glorious Angel is the E/W pick, of course, but Count D'Orsay might well be dangerously overpriced at 12/1 and with quite a few firms paying four places...

 

Racing Insights, Friday 20/10/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded just one qualifier...

...but I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.55 Haydock
  • 2.25 Haydock
  • 4.35 Uttoxeter
  • 5.38 Redcar
  • 6.15 Dundalk
  • 7.45 Dundalk

Storm Babet continues to cause major disruption to meetings across Britain, so Fakenham and Uttoxeter's Friday cards must pass 7.30am inspections before being allowed to go ahead with Haydock already postponed. With this in mind, the A/W might be a safer place to focus on and we might as well have a look at Spirit of Ash from the H4C report above. She's one of three females in the 5.00 Newcastle, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 2m½f on standard tapeta...

Our featured runner Spirit of Ash was a winner here over 1m4½f just a week ago, making her the only LTO winner in this field, but most of her opponents have at least one win in their recent form, although Yasmin from York have lost her last seven and both Spritzin and Easter Island are maidens after eight and five races respectively.

Sophar Sogood is down three classes here after being well beaten at Class 2, but he's still a class higher than when winning two starts ago, whilst top weight Red Force One is down one level. Spirit of Ash goes the other way, moving up one class from her Class 6 win here a week ago, whilst out of form bottom weight Yasmin from York is also up one class, which I can't see being helpful!

Haaland, Spritzin and Artisan Dancer receive an 8lbs weight for age allowance here and the first named of that trio now wears cheekpieces for the first time after finishing third last time out. That was 29 days ago and whilst that's not exactly a distant memory, only Kiss My Face has been out of action longer and he might well need the run after 24 weeks off.

Despite being three from five here at Newcastle, Spirit of Ash hasn't won over course and distance (she hasn't gone beyond 1m5f), but both Bobby Shaftoe and the returning Kiss My Face have scored over track and trip, whilst Red Force One, Sophar Sogood, Artisan Dancer and Yasmin from York have won elsewhere over similar distances to this one.

One last note about Kiss My Face is that he's trained by Brian Ellison and will be ridden by Ben Robinson and this trainer/jockey combo have won this race for the last two years and Instant Expert suggests this runner should enjoy the prevalent conditions here...

Bobby Shaftoe also has a decent set of figures to back up his claims, but aside from Sophar Sogood, the field look pretty shy of Class 5 A/W wins and this is repeated in the place stats...

...where Yasmin of York would normally be of interest were she not in such poor form right now. Kiss My Face is the eyecatcher again here, but I'm just concerned he might need the run.

The draw stats for similar past races...

...are a little skewed by a poor set of results from horses drawn in stall 1...

...but that looks to be an anomaly and I'm fairly sure that the draw won't make or break the chances of a horse that has to run over 3500 yards after the gates open, so I wouldn't necessarily be ruling Bobby Shaftoe out right now, but I'd want him to race as prominently as he could from that lowest draw, if these pace stats are anything to go by...

That, sadly isn't normally the case ands he's generally held up or races in mid-field, as shown by his last four efforts below...

That said, there's very little pace in the race here and I suspect we'll have a falsely run race. Draw and pace will probably end up having very little effect on the outcome and if they go at a dawdle, which they might, then that's tailor made for the more natural hold-up types.

Summary

If we're not placing as much emphasis on draw/pace as we normally do, then it's going to be down to form, suitability, quality and the unquantifiable 'gut feeling' and with that in mind, I think I want to play at the bottom end of the pace chart. A lack of early pace would tend to set it up for a 'finisher'.

Spirit of Ash is the course specialist from the H4C report and I fancy her to go well, but she's never been beyond 1m5f, so may have to settle for a place/top 4 finish with Artisan Dancer the one I like most. He has finished 1116 in his last four and would have been much closer last time out, had he not been blocked off on the rail late on when flying home. He gets the trip, is in good nick, loves the A/W and is 3 from 6 under today's jockey.  He's the current 9/4 fav ahead of Spirit of Ash at 7/2, but neither price is particularly attractive/generous.

Elsewhere, at a bigger price, Bobby Shaftoe looks a reasonable E/W pick at 8/1, whilst Kiss My Face could well outrun his 12/1 ticket if fully tuned up after his lay-off, but you'd be taking his fitness on trust. Mind you, Skybet are paying 4 places, so who knows?

Racing Insights, Thursday 19/10/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.35 Carlisle
  • 3.55 Brighton
  • 4.20 Wincanton
  • 4.45 Carlisle
  • 5.10 Thurles

...and the highest rated of the four UK races is the 3.35 Carlisle, 12-runners, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 3m½f on good ground...

Wasdell Dundalk is the only runner in the field to have won last time out and he comes here on the back of three straight wins over a similar trip to this one (all at Perth). Guetapan Collonges, The Kniphand and Ned tanner have all also won at least two of their last five outings, whilst only Morning Spirit is without a win in five.

Only Silver in Disguise and Ned Tanner ran at Class 3 last time around as Morning Spirit, The Kniphand, Dallas des Pictons and in-form Wasdell Dundalk all drop down a class, whilst joint top weights Gueatpan Collonges and Mexico both drop two classes, as does Your Own Story. Conversely Giovanni Change, East Street and bottom weight Court Dreaming are all up one class.

Most of the field are running after four to seven months off the track, but Wasdell Dundalk, Dallas des Pictons and Giovanni Change have been seen more recently at 22, 29 and 71 days respectively.

All bar Mexico, Giovanni Change and Ned tanner have won over a similar trip, whilst Morning Spirit and Court Dreaming have both won over course and distance. Your Own Story has also won here at Carlisle in the past, landing a 3m1½f Novice Hurdle in March '22.

Other relative/collateral form is shown here in Instant Expert...

...where the in-form and class-dropping Wasdell Dundalk catches the eye, especially as only he and Guetapan Collonges have won at Class 2. He is, of course, up 6lbs for his most recent win, but he did win by 14 lengths without exerting himself and the runner-up has made the frame at Class 2 again since. The place stats from those races above look like this...

...with honourable mentions going to Your Own Story and Ned Tanner amongst others. Wasdell Dundalk's last three runs/wins have come from racing further down the field and if this group race as they have done in their last few outings, then I suspect that the early pace would come from Giovanni Change and Dallas des Pictons...

...and that probably represents their best chance of getting something from the races, as past similar contests here suited front-running types...

Summary

His recent pace profile suggests he might struggle here, but everything else points to Wasdell Dundalk for me. He's in-form, down in class, hasn't been massively punished for a cosy win three weeks ago, won't need the run to clear his pipes and was the standout on Instant Expert. 1 in 16 hold-up horses win here at Carlisle, he might just be that one and at an early price of 7/1, he'd be the one for me. In fact that's almost E/W odds territory and with most firms paying four places, you could well play it safe.

As for an E/W bet for four places, I'd want a double-digit odds runner and that currently only gives me five runners to go at, but of the five longest-priced runners, the 10/1 Ned Tanner would be the one I think could make the frame.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 17/10/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...and as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.50 Leicester
  • 3.05 Gowran Park
  • 3.35 Hereford
  • 5.35 Huntingdon

...and of the nine races above, the one featuring Valsad is the highest-rated, so we're heading for the 4.55 Newcastle, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+, A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4½f  on standard tapeta...

Before analysing the race in the way I normally do, I need to mention that the top weight Military March muddies the waters somewhat here. He hasn't raced anywhere in the last 999 days since only finishing eighth of 11 to Lord Glitters in Singspiel Stakes at Meydan, despite being sent off as the 11/8 fav and it's 1228 days since his last UK run which saw him finish fourth in 2020's 2000 Guineas on just his third outing. His second outing was four years and almost a week ago and that was a Group 3 victory.

I'm mentioning all this, because it's quite possible that he won't come out of my analysis too well, but Godolphin don't keep horses in training for no reason, do they? And there's no doubting his past ability, so I'll need to keep this in mind.

What we do know is that both Capital Theory and bottom weight (carrying two stone less than Military March!) Wynter Wildes won last time out and that Haunted Dream, Stowell and Onesmoothoperator are all without a win in their racecard-visible formline, having lost their last 6, 9 and 17 races respectively.

Military March and Blanchard are on handicap debuts here and are both down in class, as their last UK run were at Group 1 and Listed class respectively, but the bottom four on the card are all up in class; Southern Voyage, Capital Theory & Sir Chauvelin are up from Class 3, whilst Wynter Wildes won a Class 4 handicap at Yarmouth last time out. All bar Capital Thory of the four class risers have already won here over course and distance, whilst Blanchland and Onesmoothoperator have both won here, over a mile and 1m2f respectively, but neither have won over a similar trip to this one, nor have Military March, Wooton'Sun or Capital Theory.

Military March has been gelded during his long absence, Wynter Wildes is the sole female in the race, Sir Chauvelin is the oldest at 11 yrs of age and our sole 3 yr old, Blanchard, gets a useful 6lbs weight for age allowance and Instant Expert's overview of past runs under similar conditions looks like this...

Valsad made The Shortlist, of course, but we now see that it was based on just one run/win on the A/W at Southwell a month ago. Haunted Dream, Capital Theory and Sir Chauvelin have multiple A/W wins and the latter definitely likes this trip, whereas Onesmoothoperator's win record looks dreadful, despite the following graphic suggesting that he's usually a very good E/W bet...

...having made the frame in 12 of his 16 A/W starts including seven of eight here at Newcastle and he's possibly the pick on place form alone. He'll run from stall 4, whilst Godolphin's returner, Military March, has got box number 1 but past similar races here at Newcastle appear to have favoured those drawn highest...

...which could be good news for the likes of Southern Voyage, Wynter Wildes, Valsad and Haunted Dream. Those 40-odd races above really haven't been kind to horses that lead with the staling prominent horses picking them off late on..

When we look at how these runners have approached their last few races, we can attempt to predict how they'll tackle this one. Military March, of course, will be tricky to assess on A/W debut after a long absence, but here's how they have raced of late...

We've no out and out front runner here, but Capital Theory won from the front LTO, so might be tempted to take it on here, whilst Military March won the Group 3 Dubai Autumn Stakes from the front four years ago; Wootton'Sun, Omniscient and Blanchland have all also set the pace in one of their last four runs.

Summary

On past achievements, Military March should be absolutely thrown in on handicap debut off a mark of 107. I know it's more gut feeling than fact, but Godolphin don't bring horses back after three years off if they're no good and this makes him the one to beat here, but I'm not backing him at 11/4 or 3/1 taking fitness on trust, so I'll look elsewhere for a bet.

Wynter Wildes won nicely last time out and although up in class, she's carrying two stones less than the above-mentioned fav and at 14/1 could be a nice E/W bet, especially with most firms paying four places. I also like Haunted Dream and Valsad as potential placers, but 13/2 isn't quite long enough for me.

One that could be a bet at 8/1 or bigger is LTO winner Capital Theory, but the main interest in this race has to be how former star Military March fares on comeback, I wish him well.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 16/10/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 3.45 Windsor
  • 3.50 Gowran Park
  • 4.10 Musselburgh
  • 8.00 Kempton
  • 8.30 Kempton

The highest rated of the UK races above also has an interesting pace profile, so that's where I'm headed. The race itself is the 4.10 Musselburgh, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a right-handed 7f on good/good to soft ground. The card looks like this...

...whilst the average pace profile of the runners based on their last four outings suggests that Glorious Angel and Mubhijah from stalls 2 and 4 might well set the tempo of the contest...

The latter of that pair is the only LTO winner in the field, having finally got her nose in front after three successive runner-up finishes. She'd actually made the frame in seven of eight races before that resounding six length victory at Carlisle a month ago, making her the form horse in the pack. Elsewhere, only Glorious Angel and Rock Melody are winless in seven or more, whilst Sibyl Charm is a five-race maiden.

That said, it won't be as easy for Mubhijah here, as she's up two classes here, whilst Shades of Summer, Mersea and Lady Mojito all step up one level. Conversely, the top two in the weights, Kitai and Glorious Angel both drop down a class and bottom weight Biplane is down two classes after running in a Listed event at Redcar nine days ago. That gap from her last race is the same as Mersea's nine-day break and they're the two turned back out quickest.

Most of the field have, in fairness, raced in the last month or so, but Lady Mojito has been off for two months and Sibyl Charm hasn't raced for almost fifteen weeks, during which she has moved from Joseph Patrick O'Brien's yard and now makes a debut for Iain Jardine, whilst Rock Melody wears cheekpieces for the first time.

Sibyl Charm is, of course, still a maiden so obviously has no wins at neither trip nor track and Kitai, Mubhijah and Mersea have also yet to win over this distance, whilst Rock Melody is the sole previous Musselburgh winner, having raced here five times already, all over 5f, finishing 43112.

Whilst this is a 3yo+ race, only three of the field (Shades of Summer, Rock Melody & Biplane) are actually older than three and as a result are 2lbs worse off at the weights, due to the 3yo weight for age allowance afforded to the other half dozen.

Instant Expert says that none of these are perfect standout candidates, but that Kitai might well enjoy the expected conditions...

...although she is 5lbs higher than her last win. Glorious Angel seems to have struggled to win on similar going with a similar story for Rock Melody on both Class and trip, whilst the place data for the field looks like this...

...where I still have concerns about both Glorious Angel and Rock Melody over today's trip. The former is expected to be one of the pacemakers according tot he average pace profile I posted earlier and she's drawn low here in stall 2, but I don't expect her draw to give her any advantage or disadvantage, based on how over 100 past similar contests have gone...

...which leads us back to where we started and the daily feature, the Pace tab. I showed you that the average pace profile over four races for this field looked like this...

...and that prediction is based on the following...

...and those individual races suggest that both Lady Mojito and Sibyl Charm might actually race a little further back than their average indicated, giving the top two on the chart an almost free run early on, so let's check how those 100+ races (that we used for the draw stats) above have gone re: pace...

...and that's pretty clear, isn't it?

Summary

Glorious Angel and Mubhijah from stalls 2 and 4 look like being handed a soft early opportunity to dictate events from the front and the latter is definitely the form horse irrespective of a two-step up in class and Mubhijah would be my one to beat here. I'm not surprised that she's the early 5/2 favourite. That price isn't particularly generous, but it's probably about right, all things considered.

Glorious Angel should be able to hang on for a place, but at 11/2 isn't the kind of price I place E/W bets at, but I expect her to be in the mix. Elsewhere I like the look of Kitai and Mersea and with them being priced up at 4/1 and 9/1 with Hills, the latter would be the one I'd consider for a small E/W punt.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 11/10/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.35 Punchestown
  • 4.30 Ludlow
  • 4.57 Nottingham
  • 5.45 Sedgefield
  • 8.30 Kempton

...whilst my own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following on 14-day form...

and for 30-day form...

and course 5-year form...

Of all the races listed above from both the 'free' list and the report qualifiers, the highest rated is the 5.05 Ludlow, where the in-form Twiston-Davies yard send Topofthecotswolds to take on 5 rivals in a Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right handed three miles on good ground...

BACK ON THE LASH was third in a Class 1 handicap at Cheltenham last November, before winning there over the cross country fences in January. Was subsequently pulled up at this year's Festival there and also in the Grand National at Aintree since but he's now down two classes and back to his last winning mark after a six month break. He's 3 from 3 here at Ludlow including a win over course and distance.

LE CAMELEON won a Class 3 handicap chase here over course and distance in March and was then third here a month later before signing off with another similar result at Kempton. Has been off for nearly six months and has undergone wind surgery in that time, but won this time last year after an equally long absence..

QUICK DRAW also comes back from a six month break and was in fine form last winter finishing 211P3, a poor run at Kempton aside. Yet to win over this trip over fences, but did so over hurdles at Uttoxeter in December 2021. Yard and jockey have good records here.

TOPOFTHECOTSWOLDS hasn't won any of seven outings since scoring here over 3m2f almost a year ago, but hadn't been running terribly before finishing last of six, beaten by 40 lengths at Worcester last month which is a worry. That said, yard and jockey are both in good form and that last win here was off a mark 2lbs higher than his current one and he does drop in class.

JUDGE EARLE is the veteran of the field at 11 yrs of age and was in good form in the summer finishing 112 during July/August. Sadly that took his mark from 105 to 125 and that looked too much for him as he was only 4th of 6 last time out. He's eased a pound here, but needs more help that that in my opinion. Won over this trip at Uttoxeter and now visits Ludlow for the first time.

VOLCANO is 6 from 26 over fences, which is reasonable enough, but 5 of those wins came from 6 outings at Warwick leaving him just 1 from 20 elsewhere! That 1 win did, however, come from 7 previous visits here at Ludlow over course and distance almost three years ago. Hasn't been seen since being pulled up at Ffos Las six months ago and will probably need the run as all six career wins have come within 23 days of his previous run.

Instant Expert suggests Back On The Lash will be best suited by forecasted conditions...

...whilst featured runner Topofthecotswolds has really good place form...

If the field's past few races are anything to go by, then I'd expect Judge Earle and Volcano to be the early pace-setters...

...which, based on past races here at Ludlow, would seem to represent their best chances of doing well today...

Summary

Pacemakers do well here at Ludlow and I'd expect Judge Earle and Volcano to be the early pace-setters. Sadly the latter looks like he's too high in the weights to win and the latter saves his best form for Warwick and will probably also need the run.

Next in line on the pace chart is Back On The Lash, who is down in class and back on his last winning mark. He scored best on Instant Expert too and he'll be well poised to take over from the leaders as they tire. We're not getting rich here, but at 3/1 (Bet365) Back On The Lash would be my pick of the pack.

Le Cameleon returns from a break and wind surgery and I tend not to back horses immediately after wind ops, which leaves me with Topofthecotswolds and Quick Draw.

The latter has excellent place stats over similar conditions, but is still higher than his last winning mark and hasn't been in great form of alter, despite how well his yard are going. Quick Draw, however, was going well at the end of his last campaign and his yard/jockey fare well at this venue. There might not be much to choose between this pair in the end, but the latter is the 9/4 fav with Hills. Bet365 offer 11/1 about Topofthecotswolds and whilst he might need things to fall his way to make the frame, that might not be a bad E/W bet for small change.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 10/10/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with all three seeming worth a second glance if nothing else, whilst as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.12 Leicester
  • 4.10 Punchestown
  • 4.20 Huntingdon
  • 4.32 Leicester
  • 5.30 Huntingdon

And the highest rated of the UK races above is the 4.32 Leicester, an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good to soft ground that will be better in palces...

Top weight Box to Box won last time out and has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last five outings, whilst Forceful Speed has won three on the bounce and is five from his last eight. Kitsune Power and The City's Phantom are the only ones without a win in their visible formline.

Forceful Speed is up a class here, though, as is fast finishing Fantasy Believer, whilst Beraz, Kitsune Power and James McHenry all drop down a level. Beraz, Chelsea Green, James McHenry and Zirhab have yet to win over today's trip, but the latter has won here over a mile; Kitsune Power is the only other previous course winner, having scored over 7f back in April 2022.

Five of this field (Chelsea Green, Forceful Speed, James McHenry, Intricacy and Ziryab) recieve a 4lb weight allowances as three year olds, whilst the last three of thse five listed are running for the first time since being gelded. That said, Ziryab's 81-day absence is the longest of all eleven runners with six of his opponents having raced in the last four weeks.

Instant Expert says...

...that plenty of these have shown an aptitude/liking for one or more of today's expected conditions without too many alarm belles ringing in my head. On the basis of the above, Box To Box looks well suited, despite a 3lb weight rise and Forceful Speed will certainly get the trip. The place stats from those races above looks like this...

...where again Box To Box looks the one to beat. Intricacy scores well here too, of course. He's drawn right out in stall 11 of 11, but past similar contests suggest that this wouldn't necessarily ruin his chances...

...as it's the lower end of the draw that seems to have come out worst, although that's not totally bad news for Ziryab in stall 1, as the following breakdown shows...

All of which tempts me to say that the draw might well play second fiddle to the pace of the contest in determining who wins here and if we look at those races above, the data says that you don't want to be dawdling early on...

...which would suit up to a half-dozen of these, based on the way they've approached their last four races...

Summary

The obvious starting point for me has to be Box To Box. He's in great form, scored well (the best) on Instant Expert, is drawn high enough not to be classed as a low draw and will set the tempo of the contest. He's currently 8/1 wit Betfair/PP, so that's an E/W bet in my eyes.

Whether he wins or not might well depend on how close Forceful Speed sticks to him. This 3yr old is flying right now, having won his last three and is unpenalised for his last success; a similar run here makes him difficult to beat and the market reflects this with him being the 3/1 fav.

These are the two that interest me the most and I don't see there being too much between them. As for another runner for the frame, I'd probably side with the 5/1 Intricacy. He's in good nick, has the eight allowance and Instant Expert says he's a regular placer. He's too short for an E/W bet in my eyes, but I expect him to be in the mix.

Racing Insights, Saturday 07/10/2023

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following couple of runners for me to look at...

1-year form...

course 5-year form...

...plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.50 Ascot
  • 2.55 Curragh
  • 3.35 Ascot
  • 4.00 Fontwell
  • 6.00 Wolverhampton
  • 7.30 Wolverhampton

...the best of which, on paper at least, is the first on the list, the 1.50 Ascot, a 9-runner, 3yo+ Listed Flat race over a straight 5f  on good ground...

Glamorous Breeze and Korker both won last time out, but the former steps up from Class 4 to run here, whilst the latter is up one class, as is fellow joint top weight Chipstead, who now wears cheekpieces for the first time. The other joint top weight, Emaraaty Ana is the highest rated and is at least 3lbs 'well-in' with all his rivals, but is one of only two runners (Rage of Bamby being the other) without a win in his recent formline, but he has been second and third in two Listed events in his last two outings.

Zudu Spirit makes a UK debut here and will sport a first-time tongue tie on his opening effort for new trainer George Boughey some two months after his last French run for Mauricio Delcher-Sanchez at Deauville; the rest of the field have all raced in the last month or so with only Rage of Bamby yet to win over today's trip. With regards to previous Ascot runs, only Rage of Bamby and Zudu Spirit have yet to run at Ascot, but Instant Expert says the other half dozen runners are a combined 0 from 15 here!

Zudu Spirit has no previous UK form, hence the blank line of data. Elsewhere Emaraaty Ana looks weak, but does get the trip with only Chipstead having a better strike rate over 5f. For consistency, Nymphadora probably shades it, but there's not much to writhe home about from those win stats, so let's check place form...

...which represents a complete turnaround for Emaraaty Ana, who now looks the one to beat on the above data with Designer now looking the weakest. I often revert to place for if there isn't much 'green' on the win stats!

The draw stats for the small number of previous past similar races suggest that there is very little/no advantage in being drawn in any particular stall from either a win or place basis...

...whilst the pace stats for those races say that leaders do very well at making the frame but are often beaten by those racing prominently just behind...

...as only 10% of the leaders who made the frame managed to hold on to win, whilst 61.5% of the prominent running placers managed to beat the leader home. If we look at the field's recent outings...

...it looks like Emaraaty Ana and Nymphadora might well be allowed to dictate terms here with not many of the others looking like they'd want to go with them and based on those pace averages above, our pace/draw heat map looks like this...

Summary

For me, Emaraaty Ana and Nymphadora are the best two runners in the race and they look like they'll control things from the front. The former holds the advantage in terms of ratings to weight carried, but hasn't won for a while, whilst the latter won a Listed race recently and was a runner-up beaten by just a neck in a Group 3 last time out.

On that basis, Nymphadora looks better value at 11/2 than Emaraaty Ana does at 9/4. As for a third horse for the frame, I fancy Rage of Bamby and Korker to go well and I'd probably sway towards the former based on ratings/weight, even though the latter won last time out. This pair are 6/1 and 4/1 respectively so no E/W pick there.

If I was to try and highlight one that might go well at a bigger price, then maybe Designer at 12's might be the one, but she'd need some luck to get ahead of a couple of the others I've mentioned.

Racing Insights, Friday 06/10/2023

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded just two UK qualifiers...

...but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Downpatrick
  • 4.07 Fontwell
  • 4.30 Ascot
  • 5.10 Newcastle
  • 6.00 Dundalk
  • 6.45 Newcastle

...and of the six UK races above (from the report and the free list), I'm going to look at the 4.30 Ascot, an 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed two miles on good ground, that will be softer in places...

No LTO winners here, but Art de Vivre, Brave Knight, El Jasor and Sea Stone all won their penultimate starts and the latter was third last time out, as was Oceanline.

Hy Brasil has been off the track the longest at 151 days but he now returns for a second crack at winning a handicap and is tongue-tied for the first time, whilst all his rivals have raced in the last five weeks or so. He's also stepping up a class from his last run, as are Oceanline and Brave Knight. Educator actually drops down a level, but bottom weight Art de Vivre is up two classes here.

Art de Vivre, is however, one of three 3 yr olds in the field along with El Jasor and Brave Knight and they'll get a useful 9lbs weight allowance for their age. None of this field have won here at Ascot before (mind you, only two have raced here), but three (Sea Stone, Brave Knight & Art de Vivre) have won over a two-mile trip.

Instant Expert looks like this...

...with Alright Sunshine relishing the going and the class of race, but not the track nor trip! Sea Stone probably looks the best, but there's not much to work with here, so let's look at place form...

I think that suggests Alright Sunshine isn't going to enjoy the 2m trip here and indeed, his best Flat form has been over 1m4f. He has, however got a decent record over hurdles at this class/trip, so all might not be lost, as shown below for all codes...

...but it's still Sea Stone from that for me. Alright Sunshine does look capable of a place and although I suspect the draw shouldn't be making or breaking a runner's chance here, he has bagged stall 1. The draw stats for similar past races say...

...that there is no real discernible draw bias at play here and that we'd be better off focusing on the pace of the race, where the key to winning here seems to be a prominent/leading run...

...with hold-up horses struggling most to make the frame. Our field's last few outings have gone as follows...

...with the top four of obvious interest.

Summary

The above analysis doesn't reflect this, but Sea Stone is the one to beat here in my opinion. He's in the best form and still looks ahead of the assessor, but I can't back him at 5/2, as those odds reflect poor value in a competitive race like this, plus he doesn't fit my profiling above 😉

Brave Knight, El Jasor, Hy Brasil & Art de Vivre are prominent/leading types and I want to focus on this quartet. I'm against Hy Brasil due to his layoff, handicap inexperience, class rise and a lack of form, but the other three all won two starts ago and that form allied to their likely running style makes them decent options to make the frame.

Sadly they're all currently priced at 5/1 or shorter, so I own't be having an E/W bet here, but this trio and Sea Stone should be the ones filling the places.

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 04/10/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.05 Bangor
  • 2.20 Catterick
  • 2.50 Catterick
  • 4.25 Navan
  • 5.12 Nottingham

...whilst my own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following...

14-day form

course 5-year form

Of all those races above, the one featuring Charlie Appleby's Mischief Magic is the highest-rated, so we're going to look at the 6.30 Kempton, a 7-runner, Class 2, A/W 3yo + contest over a right-handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack...

None of these won last time out and only Aramis Grey had a top three finish, but all bar Desert Cop, Baldomero and Misty Grey have at least one win in their recent form lines. Brad The Brief and featured runner Mischief Magic have the benefit of dropping down from runs at Listed class and Group 1 respectively and the latter is a former Group 3 winner.

He hasn't raced for almost 15 weeks, but Baldomero has been off for nearly 18 weeks and Never Just A Dream hasn't been seen of eight months and would probably need the run. As well as dropping in class, Brad The Brief wears cheekpieces for the first time and Mischief Magic runs for the first time since being gelded.

All bar Baldomero have won at this trip already, but he has at least won here at Kempton (Class 2, 1m2f, 17 months ago), whilst Desert Cop, Aramis Grey and Mischief Magic are all course and distance winners, as shown on Instant Expert...

...which suggests that Baldomero might well be outclassed based on a 1 in 10 record at C2 and that Aramis Grey (1/7) might also struggle. From the above, Desert Cop, Mischief Magic and Never Just A Dream are the eye-catchers.

The draw stats from similar past races have suggested that a low draw is preferable...

...along with a willingness to get on with things...

...which looks like more good news for Never Just A Dream...

If we combine the pace & draw stats, we get the following pace/draw heat map...

...where Never Just A Dream would sit in the Mid/Led 15.52% sector, which is probably as good as we're getting for this field...

Summary

Never Just A Dream should be my pick here based purely on the above and at 11/1, he'd make a decent E/W bet. He scores well on Instant Expert, has the best pace profile in the race and is drawn close enough to the lower end to not be adrift, but he hasn't raced since appearing at Meydan eight months ago and tackles polytrack for the first time. Those two negatives even outweigh the booking of James Doyle and stops me from backing him to win.

I suspect the winner will be our featured runner, Mischief Magic. Charlie Appleby's horses are flying right now and this horse is the class horses in the race. He's a former Group 3 winner who drops down from Group 1 to run here, he's easily the highest rated and has won over course and distance. His jockey/trainer combined to win this race two years ago and I expect them to land it again this year.

Sadly, we're not getting rich here, though, as Mischief Magic is currently Even money with Hills (only book open right now). I expected him to be short, but not this short, I was rather hoping for around 6/4, but you can't always get what you want!

Brad the Brief also drops in class and should go well, but 7/2 isn't E/W territory for me.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 03/10/23

/in /by

Greetings from Sunny Santorini, where the wifi seems to be fairly stable, so let's crack on before it goes down!

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the first four named are of more obvious immediate interest than the others, whilst as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.00 Galway
  • 3.22 Ayr
  • 4.05 Southwell
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

...with the 'best' (class/on paper) of them being the 3.22 Ayr, a 7-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 7f (plus 59yds) on soft ground...

Three of this field, Master Zoffany, Autumn Festival and William Dewhurst managed to win last time out, but the latter pait are up 1 and 2 classes respectively, whilst the former actually drops down from Class 2, as do Sirona, Abduction and On A Session for a race where all seven runners are class movers with Rock Melody also up one class. He was actually placed third last time out, but along with Sirona and On A Session, is winless in his recent formline.

All bar William Dewhurst have won over today's trip and by virtue of winning this race last year, Abduction is the sole course (course & distance) winner and all runners have had at least one outing in the past month.

Instant Expert says...

...that Autumn Festival loves the soft ground and has a great record over today's type of trip and that Abduction has a poor win record at this grade but loves it here at Ayr. On A Session looks vulnerable at the distance and no runner is below their last Flat winning mark; Sirona has yet to win a handicap, but does have good place form from an albeit limited number of qualifying runs...

...where Autumn Festival is again the eyecatcher, but good to see that three of these have gone well on soft ground in the past.

The Draw Analyser says...

...that there's not a great deal to be gained/lost from whichever stall a runner is allocated and this is backed up by the PRB3 stats...

...which would lead me to assume that the race is going be decided by tactics and how the race is approached.

And the Pace Analyser says...

...that horses racing prominently or leading go on to win 70.5% of the races, despite providing just 52.4% of the runners, with those who led easily faring best. This field's most recent outings have looked like this...

...with both Sirona snd On A Session both having three prominent runs from four, but no obvious pace maker here, although Autumn Festival ended a nine-race losing run by making all last time out and did win five on the bounce from the front from July to October last year. The return to front-running tactics heralded the end of the losing run and I can see him setting pace here.

Summary

Autumn Festival won last time out, making all and similar tactics here will be very helpful in his bid to follow up. He has the best soft ground form of this field and was the Instant Expert eyecatcher, so at 11/4 with Hills, he's my pick.

Master Zoffany also won last time out and drops in class, but a lack of early pace might well be his undoing. I expect him to come strongly late on, but he might just fail to get up.

Aside from those two, I've no real strong feelings about the race, although Sirona might well outrun her 12/1 odds if your bookie is paying three places, as many are.

Racing Insights, Saturday 30/09/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

1-year form...

5-year course form...

One of those races is a 34-runner affair and the other a Class 6 Nursery, so I'm grateful that as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 2.25 Newmarket
  • 4.00 Gowran Park
  • 4.30 Market Rasen
  • 4.45 Killarney
  • 5.15 Ripon
  • 5.40 Market Rasen

The first of those six races is clearly the 'best' on paper, as it's a Group 1 race worth over £150k to the winner, but I'm not big into 2yr old races, so we're going jumping in Lincolnshire as we look at the 4.30 Market Rasen, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m½f on good ground...

Princess T and Coolnaugh Haze both won last time out, but the latter's stablemate Enthused is the form horse coming here seeking a hat-trick and has seven top 3 finishes (inc 3 wins) in a row. Addosh and Stonific are the only two without a win in their race-card form line after nine and eleven consecutive defeats respectively.

Their chances of ending their losing runs aren't helped by them both stepping up two classes here, as do Chance A Tune (who hasn't raced for over two years!) and Coolnaugh Haze. The veteran of the race, the 12yo Mcgroarty, however, drops down in class after finishing eighth in a Listed event at Auteuil.

Chance a Tune is the only one yet to win over a similar trip, whilst Mcgroarty, Addosh and Stonific have actually won over course and distance; none of the others have won here before, though. As mentioned above, it's more than two years since Chance A Tune was last seen and although his record in 2021 read 1432, I suspect he might well need the run here. The others have no such worries and have all raced in the past 11-42 days.

Relevant past results can be seen via Instant Expert...

...where Castel Gandolfo looks weak on going, class and trip whilst remaining 5lbs above his last winning mark. Glorious Zoff is 9lbs higher than his last win and his record on good ground and over this trip also look suspect. Old-hand Mcgroarty looks like he'll enjoy the conditions, but he also hasn't raced in the UK for almost two years, having raced a dozen times in France instead, winning twice in July.

As for place form in those races above, that looks like this...

...where top and bottom weighted horses look most vulnerable and Castel Gandolfo's numbers are very good, considering how few of those races he has actually won. Coolnaugh Haze has no Class 2 form, but was a consistent placer at Class 3.

Bearing Chance A Tune's lengthy absence in mind, the pace scores might not quite be accurate here, but if he runs the same way as he used to, then I suspect he's going to be the one setting the pace here with a whole bunch of horses stalking him ready to pounce as he tires. I'd also expect the likes of Addosh, Stonific and Glorious Zoff to be held up for a late run, based on the evidence of their last four outings...

It is entirely possible, of course that Liverpool Knight (pace scores of 414 in his last three) won't let Chance A Tune dominate and going with him early would appear to be the best tactic, based on how over 100 past similar races have panned out...

Summary

Chance A Tune is likely to fade (IMO) and I think the pace will do for the chances of Addosh, Stonific and Glorious Zoff and the first two of that trio are in dreadful form anyway. Of the remaining seven, none really jump out and scream 'back me!', but based on the evidence above, I'm drawn to LTO winner Coolnaugh Haze and he's currently a 5/1 shot with Hills.

Elsewhere I think that perpetual 'places often, but doesn't win enough' Castel Gandolfo will do the same again ie be close but not close enough and he's 13/2 if that's long enough for you to go E/W, whilst the in-form and current fav Enthused is sure to be in the mix.

If I wanted to take a punt on one that might outrun his odds, then the 18/1 Mcgroarty might do the trick for E/W bettors, especially if you can get four places.

Good luck and have a great weekend!
Chris

PS a heads up...I'm off to Greece on Saturday morning and won't be home until Wednesday 18th October. I will, of course, endeavour to write this column every day, ship/resort wi-fi permitting, but the timing of my posts might vary. There won't be a preview for Monday 2nd, Monday 9th nor Wednesday 18th, but I'll do my best for the remainder!

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