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Racing Insights, Saturday 23/09/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

...14-day form...

...1-year form...

...1-year course form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.25 Ayr
  • 3.10 York
  • 3.20 Listowel
  • 3.35 Ayr
  • 4.05 Catterick
  • 5.30 York

The first of those free races has two of our highlighted trainer/jockey combos, but 25-runner sprints aren't really my bag if truth be told, so I'm going a little off-piste today and setting the TJC report and the free races aside to take a look at one of the highest-rated handicap races of the day, the the 1.15 Ayr, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a a left-handed mile on good to soft/soft ground...

Top-weight Koy Koy, Isla Kai and Redarna all won last time out, whilst 2021's winner Revich, Titan Rock and Judgment Call all made the frame. Sole 3yo (4lbs allowance for this) and sole female Sirona is winless in six, whilst it's 16 losses on the bounce for Fools Rush In.

Only four of this field (inc LTO winner Isla Kai) ran at this grade last time out as Koy Koy, Diamondonthehill, Stormbuster and Judgment Call all step up a class, whilst both Redarna and Fools Rush In are up from Class 4, but none of these should be too rusty, having all raced in the last five weeks or so.

Revich won this race over course and distance two years ago and Redarna has also won over track and trip. Judgment Call and Titan Rock have won here at Ayr over 7/7½f and the latter has won over a mile elsewhere, as have Koy Koy, Isla Kai, Diamondonthehill and Stormbuster, as verified by Instant Expert...

...which apart from a dismal record at Class 2, suggests Redarna will enjoy the conditions. In fairness, none of these have exactly set the world alight at this level, but Redarna is 5 from 19 at Class 3, where Isla Kai is 4 from 6. Quite a few of these do, however, have decent records at making the frame at Class 2, so all might not be lost...

...and from this, I'm probably most interested in Isla Kai, Koy Koy, Redarna, Revich and Stormbuster, who are spread across the track from stalls 1 to 9 over a track and trip that hasn't been too kind to those drawn highest...

...which isn't good news for Koy Koy, Revich or Sirona. It's not the end of the world, of course, because the pace/draw heat map suggests that these three have a great chance of winning if they can get away sharply...

...but they certainly don't want to be down the field in the early stages, as hold-up horses have tended to struggle...

...with those racing furthest forward having the best chance of making the frame. We can now check how this field have approached their last few outings to help us make a reasoned assumption as to how they'll race here...

My deduction from the above is that we might end up with a falsely run race, with no real pacemakers and no hold-up horses, although Stormbuster, Isla Kai and Judgment Call have led in one of their last four outings.

Summary

Isla Kai brings the best 3-race form to the table here and of the three LTO winners, he's the only one not stepping up in class. he had no red on the place form on Instant Expert, and has made the frame in four of five starts on good to soft. There's a good chance there'll be more rain at Ayr and he's three from three on soft ground. he won far more cosily than the bare result suggested at Ripon last month and he's the one to beat here.

He was the 4/1 fav at 5.45pm on Friday and I'm happy enough at that, as I though he might well be more towards the 3/1 mark. I'd expect the toughest challenges to come from the likes of Revich, who won this race two years ago and ran well enough to make the frame at Chester last time out, despite being drawn almost on the road by the track (stall 10!) and he's currently 11/2.

Of those priced in what I'd call E/W territory, Redarna (8/1) seemed well suited by his Instant Expert profile, whilst the 12/1 Judgment Call is 3123 in his last four starts and has won twice here at Ayr.

Racing Insights, Friday 22/09/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have sadly produced no qualifiers, but thankfully our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.35 Newton Abbot
  • 2.50 Ayr
  • 3.50 Listowel
  • 4.50 Dundalk
  • 5.15 Kempton
  • 7.45 Kempton

...the pick of which must surely be the Arran Scottish Sprint EBF Fillies Stakes aka the 2.50 Ayr, a 13-runner, Listed race for 3yo+ fillies and mares over a straight 5½f on good/good to soft ground and here's how they look on the card...

None managed to win last time out, but Aussie Girl has been the runner-up in each of her last three after winning four races ago. She has two wins and six places from her last eight starts (13221222), which is about as good as it gets for this field's recent form. Funny Story, Marine Wave and Secret Angel were also in the frame last time around, but the latter pair are both winless in at least six, as is Gale Force Maya.

Seven of the field raced in Class 1 action last time around, but Gale Force Maya (now blinkered for the first time), Marine Wave, Radio Goo Goo, Sophia's Starlight and Sweet Harmony all step up from Class 2 with Silent Words up two classes, depsite finishing last of seven at Thirsk earlier this month.

The vast majority of the field have raced in the last month or so, but Pink Crystal and Rum Cocktail return from ten-week breaks and as 4 yr olds, they're 2lbs worse off with the ten 3yo's in the field, as is the 7yo Gale Force Maya, who is the sole course and distance winner, by virtue of landing this race last year (that said, she is 0 from 7 and placed just once since).

None of her rivals have won here before, but Aussie Girl did win over 5½f at the end of April. Instant Expert says that all bar Marine Wave, Perdika and Silent words have won over 5f to 6f on turf, though...

There's not a huge deal of green there, but Sophia's Starlight would seem to be happy with the ground conditions and the trip. We're a bit shy on Class 1 winners, but Gale Force Maya is 5 from 14 at Class 2, whilst the corresponding place data for those races above is as follows...

...with the ones creating most initial interest being Perdika, Gale Force Maya, Pink Crystal, Aussie Girl and Queen Me.

As you'd probably expect, there's not a huge draw bias over a straight 5½f, although those drawn highest have won slightly more often...

...but the lower a horse is drawn the better its chances of making the frame have been, so mixed messages here and it's highly likely that pace will determine the winner/placers rather than the draw and here's how those 40-odd races above have been won...

...where hold-up horses have done surprisingly well over a short trip, almost achieving a par score for A/E, but as is often the case in a sprint contest, those getting out quickest have fared the best, which based on recent activity, would be good news for Aussie Girl and Queen Me from the Instant Expert shortlist, but Sophia's Starlight looks like the one most likely to set the tempo...

...and she's no mug. She didn't run particularly well last time out, but 7f on quick ground at York is nothing like she'll face here and prior to that York run, she had finished 131311521 in her eight runs this year, having made all in her five wins and Instant Expert highlighted her form at going/distance as the best.

She's drawn centrally in stall 6 and looks well favoured by the pace/draw heat map...

Summary

I really like Sophia's Starlight here and although I'm not sure she's the winner of this contest, I'm happy to back her E/W. Only Hills had prices up at 3pm on Thursday, but 10/1 is workable or you might want to wait until those firms offering four places open up.

I also fancy the chances of Aussie Girl and Queen Me. Both were on the IE shortlist, both will be up with the pace and the latter is in excellent form. Queen Me's efforts in Group 1 defeats on her last two outings might well be the best recent runs from any of these runners and this represents a major drop in quality and it's highly likely that she's going to be the one to beat here. 9/2 isn't overly generous, but I'd say it was fair.

As for Aussie Girl, I'd be surprised if she didn't make the frame : she normally does, but 13/2 is a little on the short side for me to go E/W. That said, she's a major player here and wouldn't be a bad bet.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 21/09/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 2.50 Listowel
  • 3.00 Ayr
  • 4.45 Ayr
  • 5.05 Yarmouth
  • 5.45 Listowel

On paper, the 'best' of the three UK races above (I rarely get involved in Irish racing) looks like being the first ie the 3.00 Ayr, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good/good to soft ground...

Cockalorum and Painters Palette boith won last time out and the latter is two from his last three. Elsewhere, Mr Alan won three starts ago, Austrian Theory won 6 races back and Auld Toon Loon has won two of five; the rest are winless of late.

Only three of the field raced at Class 2 on thier last outing as Cockalorum, painters palette and What's The Story all step up a class, whilst both Auld Toon Loon and Fools Rush In are up two levels, despite failing to make the frame last time out.

All bar Mr Alan have raced in the last 8 (Fools Rush In) to 38 (Cockalorum) days, but he might well need a run after a 265-day absence from the track. That said he has won here in the past, scoring over a mile almost two years ago. Two others have also won here, as both Euchan Glen and What's The Story are course and distance winners. Mr Alan, Auld Loon Toon and Cockalorum have also won over similar trips elsewhere.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, looks like this for win and place percentages...

I'm always a little concerned when win percentages are shown as red after 10 races or more, which raised quite a few issues here, such as Euchan Glen (class), Austrian Theory (going), What's The Story (going/class/distance!), Cockalorum (going/class) and Fools Rush In (class). Euchan Glen looks the pick on course and distance, whilst his going stats are no worse than the others and he's the standout on the place data as the only one with no red!

Draw stats from previous similar contests suggest that those drawn lowest have fared the best...

...whilst the pace data suggests that leaders often struggle to hang on and eventually get beaten...

...so, when the pace draw heat map says that you're best off with those drawn low and running prominently, it doesn't come as much of a surprise!

...although hold-up horses drawn centrally have done pretty well too, so as we already know the draw, let's look at the field's recent pace profiles...

...with the three highlighted runners fitting the pace/draw heat map best.

Summary

Painters Palette brings the best form to the race and whilst his Instant Expert scores aren't brilliant, he hasn't had that many races under these conditions, but he does have the ideal pace/draw setup for this contest. In all, he'd be my one to beat, but his current (5.30pm) 11/4 price looks a little on the skinny side.

Austrian Theory also looks good on the heat map, but in the absence of front-running Marie's Diamond (non-runner), I suspect he'll end up being the pacemaker along with Auld Toon Loon and that's not normally a recipe for success here.

Euchan Glen, however, is likely to be towards the rear, an ideal spot for a centrally drawn runner. His recent form hasn't been great, but he does love it here, he's down in trip and Instant Expert gives him a great chance of making the frame, as do I. I don't place E/W bets at 6/1, so wouldn't be backing him, but I do think he'll make the frame.

I probably won't have an E/W bet here as only Austrian Theory (16/1), Thundering (20/1) and Fools Rush In (20/1) are longer than 6/1, but if I was to pick one of that trio to outrun the odds, it might well be Fools Rush In, receiving weight all round, but it's not a bet I'd be placing. Austrian Theory might well set the pace and cling on for a place if they don't come after him early, but again, it's be a watching brief for me here.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 20/09/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.55 Sandown
  • 3.45 Yarmouth
  • 3.50 Listowel
  • 4.50 Sandown

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have only highlighted one trainer in short-term form...

14-day form...

...but as In The Trenches runs in one of our 'free' races, I really should take a look at the 4.50 Sandown, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good to soft ground...

Star Ahoy and Born Ruler both won their last starts and the latter has two wins and two places from his last five. Miss Dolly Rocker won her penultimate race and has made the frame in all seven career outings. Featured horse In The Trenches is a four-race maiden, whilst Miller Spirit is 0 from 5.

A few of these are short of handicap experience with Goldsborough, Ashtanga, In The Trenches and Miss Dolly Rocker all having just their second crack, whilst LTO winner Star Ahoy is a handicap debutant today and like In The Trenches and bottom weight Outgun he steps up a class here.

New Dayrell and Miss Dolly Rocker both drop a class, but Goldsborough is down teo levels and sports a hood for the first time, Miller Spirit makes a debut in cheekpieces.

Both Born Ruler and New Dayrell have already won over course and distance, whilst Star Ahoy and Miss Dolly Rocker have won over 1m2f at Pontefract and Nottingham respectively. Born Ruler's win over track and trip was just five days ago and he's turned back out quickest here, but most of the field have raced in the last seven weeks. Star Ahoy has been off for ten weeks whilst Ashtanga/In The Trenches haven't been seen since early June and may need the run.

Born Ruler has never raced on good to soft, but his LTO win over course and distance gives him plenty of green on Instant Expert, albeit off just the one run under these conditions...

He does, however, bear a 6lb penalty for last week's win and New Dayrell is still 4lbs higher than his last win, three starts ago, despite being eased a couple of pounds today. His last two efforts off 79 were fairly lacklustre. We already knew that Miller Spirit was a 5-race maiden, so the above line of red was no surprise, but despite all his races being over similar trips to today, we can now see that he hasn't even made the frame yet...

...making him the first to be cut from my considerations even before we consider whether the draw will have much impact.

Our draw analyser would initially suggest that those drawn lowest would be best placed here...

...but when I look at the actual stall-by-stall data, I'm not entirely convinced that the bias is as strong as above...

...as the data has been skewed by what can only be an anomalous 0 from 37 for stall 6. There's no rhyme nor reason for one stall to have struggled like that and if we look at the PRB3 figures, stall 8 (Born Ruler) is deemed to be the best place to run from...

...so for me, the draw stats can only be described as inconclusive, which then places greater emphasis (and a hope for some help!) on the pace data, where our pace analyser says that this type of race can be won from anywhere in the pack, but that leaders fare best and the further forward you race, the better the chance of making the frame...

...which based on recent efforts suggests another big run from the ever-consistent Miss Dolly Rocker, who seeks to make it 8 places from 8 starts...

Summary

The one I liked best here was Born Ruler; he's in great form and has won recently over course and distance and the manner of his win last week suggested that he had plenty in hand. That said, this ground is softer than he has faced before and he is up 6lbs, which makes life tougher. In all likelihood, he's the one to beat here, but there's not a great deal of value/scope in Hill's early (4.30pm) 9/4 price tag. Ideally, I'd have managed to another half point from them, but maybe other firms will be a little more generous.

The softer conditions won't affect Miss Dolly Rocker, though; she was a good to soft ground runner-up last time out when unlucky to bump into a horse winning for the fourth time in eight starts. She drops in class here and will aim to add to a soft ground win two starts ago. She hasn't been out of the frame in any of her seven career outings and I fancy that to become eight here and at attractive odds of 13/2, I think she's worth a quid or two.

The frame should then be completed by the LTO winner, Star Ahoy, who currently shows at 4/1. He narrowly won over this trip last time out on ground that was a little softer than good and although up in class and weight, should still be on the premises. I can't back him at 4's, of course, but he should go well without the pressure of my money on his back!

Racing Insights, Tuesday 19/09/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

And we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.15 Yarmouth
  • 3.25 Yarmouth
  • 4.25 Listowel
  • 7.30 Newcastle

...from all of which, I think I'll see how Forceful Speed from The Shortlist might get on in the 3.35 Redcar, a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

Ron O and Forceful Speed both won last time out and are both two from five. Stressfree won his penultimate race. Skilled Warrior and Bringbackmemories won five/six starts ago respectively, but Highwaygrey and Flight of Angels are winless in their recent formline and the latter now steps up in class, as does Bringbackmemories.

Stressfree makes a yard, a UK and a handicap debut after just three outings in France for Carlos Laffon-Parias, finishing 217 in the process and he, along with Forceful Speed and the sole filly Flight of Angels all receive a 5lb allowance as 3 yr olds.

Ron O, Skilled Warrior and Stressfree are yet to win over a similar trip, although they have won over a mile, a mile and 1m1f respectively, whilst Instant Expert says that of the three to have already raced here at Redcar, only Ron O (2 from 2) has won at the track and the lack of a 1m2f victory aside, he does seem to be well suited by conditions...

...although he is up 7lbs for that win 24 days ago, whereas Forceful Speed is only 2lbs higher than his LTO win. There doesn't seem to be too many horror stories above, win-wise, although you might think that Skilled Warrior and Flight of Angels weren't quite at Class 4 standard and it is Ron O and Forceful Speed who catch the eye here. The draw might be a factor here as those two will emerge from the lowest and highest stalls, so let's see if that could sway our decision making...

And that looks like much better news for Forceful Speed than Ron O, but the pace data suggests that if the latter can get out and set/be up with the pace, it might not be a total disaster...

...but sadly Ron O doesn't look like the type to set the tempo of a race and it's likely that Forceful Speed and Flight Of Angels will be the ones leading them out from stalls 1 & 5 respectively and we'd have to hope than the latter can tow Ron O into the race...

Summary

Forceful Speed was always going to be of interest, but I really liked Ron O until the pace/draw data cast a bit of a shadow over him. I still think he'll go well and is more than capable of winning this, but if he doesn't follow Flight of Angels early, as she tacks across, then his chance might be gone. Elsewhere Forceful Speed has the plum draw and is likely to get out sharpish, meaning he can hold the rail and take the shortest route and it's for this reason that I'm taking him at 11/4 (Hills @ 4.45pm) to beat the 7/1 (Hills) Ron O.

That said, 7/1 is a decent E/W option and I fancy Ron O to be ahead of Flight of Angels late on.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 16/09/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

14-day form...

1-year form...

course 5-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Doncaster
  • 1.58 Lingfield
  • 2.10 Navan
  • 4.40 Gowran Park
  • 5.20 Doncaster
  • 7.10 Musselburgh

The last two of the 'free' races each have a runner from my TJC Report and although it has more runners than I'm usually comfortable with, the better rated of the two is the 5.20 Doncaster, a 15-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on soft ground...

Only The Gatekeeper comes here off the back of a win, but Brunch, Empirestateofmind, Spirit Catcher (won two starts back) and Freedom Day (won three races ago) were all in the frame on their last outings.

All have raced in the last two (Spioradalta) to eight (Liberty Lane) wee and most of these ran in this grade last time out, but Pisanello steps up a class and it's a two-step rise for Titian, Freedom Day and Look Back Smiling.

That latter pair are both 3 yr olds and they receive a 4lb weight allowance here, as does Spioradalta, who once again wears cheekpieces, as does Look Back Smiling. Elsewhere Spirit Catcher wears a hood, Blue For You has a visor and both Sonny Liston & Empirestateofmind are blinkered. La Trinidad, Spioradalta and Look Back Smiling will all be ridden by claiming jockeys, but the latter pair run from 3lbs and 7lbs out of the handicap here.

All bar Sonny Liston, Liberty Lane, Spioradalta and Look Back Smiling have already won over a similar trip, but onlt La Trinidad has won over course and distance. That said, Titian's win here over 1m2f almost two years ago is the only other course success, as Instant Expert says that the field are 3 from 15 here at Doncaster...

We do have some past soft ground form, but the field have generally disappointed at Class 2. We've touched on the course/distance wins, of course and the above doesn't really inspire. It does. however, suggest that some have tried and failed several times under expected conditions with Brunch, Empirestateofmind, La Trinidad and Dutch Decoy having struggled to win at this grade, whilst Brunch and Spirit Catcher's percentages over this trip leave work to do at 3 from 24. There is, of course, the possibility that they've been unlucky or have been 'there or thereabouts' in defeat, so let's check the place stats...

...where the likes of Empirestateofmind, Titian, Pisanello and Spioradalta have performed best.

We have fifteen runners strung across the track for a straight mile and I wasn't expecting to see much of a draw bias and the stats haven't let me down in that respect...

Sadly, this doesn't get me any closer to finding a winner or an E/W bet, but I suppose those drawn lowest might have a small advantage based on the above, but I suspect it will be a case of 'pace wins the race', by which I mean the horses that has the best tactics. Those races above for the draw stats have best suited those setting the tempo from the front...

...which based on recent efforts opens the door for the likes of Spirit Catcher, Titian and The Gatekeeper....

I also suppose that if we ignore his last outing, Liberty Lane will also be keen to apply early pressure.

Summary

This looks a wide open race and I can see why Sonny Liston is the early favourite after some creditable runs in defeat. I can't back him at 9/2 or 11/2 in a 15-runner race, though. Not when he's only 1 from 12 on turf and 0 from 5 at this trip. I know he has contested better races than this, but his sole win was at Class 4 in a 7f Novice event on debut more than 26 months ago. I'm not saying he can't win, but his current odds offer me no comfort.

So, where do I stand? Well, I want to reconsider form, Instant Expert and pace...

The Gatekeeper, Brunch, Empirestateofmind, Spirit Catcher and Freedom Day appeared to be bringing the best recent form to the table, whilst the likes of Empirestateofmind, Titian, Pisanello and Spioradalta had the best place scores on Instant Expert. The pace angle pointed to Spirit Catcher, Titian, The Gatekeeper and Liberty Lane.

It's not exactly scientific, but in those three areas I've just revisited, the names of Empirestateofmind, Spirit Catcher, The Gatekeeper and Titian all appear twice, so this quartet are going to be my E/W possibles. And as of 4.15pm on Friday, my quartet were priced at 8/1, 10/1, 11/1 and 16/1 and I'd be happy to back any/all of them to make the frame. I'm not necessarily saying any are good enough to win, but who knows in such an open race?

The bookies are paying four places (5 at Sky, of course), so you can take your pick. As for the one I like best of the four; probably The Gatekeeper.

He won a similar soft ground, 1m, Class 2 handicap last time out when ridden by today's jockey Rossa Ryan for the first time and was a decent second in the 20-runner Golden Mile at Glorious Goodwood last month, when beaten by just half a length. He was first home of those drawn low and had Dutch Decoy a length and a place behind him with Sonny Liston a further two mplaces and 1.5 lengths further back.

Please Note : I'm away all weekend moving my youngest into university at Exeter (just 270 miles from home!), so I won't be around on Sunday to preview Monday's action, sorry.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 15/09/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are fairly restrictive and have sadly produced no UK qualifiers, but thankfully our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards and for Friday they are...

  • 2.25 Doncaster
  • 3.25 Downpatrick
  • 4.25 Sandown
  • 4.30 Chester
  • 5.35 Sandown

The Doncaster race is a Group 2 sprint, but I tend not to get involved with 2 yr olds too much, so I'm going to tackle the 4.25 Sandown, an 8-runner (fingers crossed they all run for E/W purposes), 4yo+, Class 2 flat handicap over a right-handed 7f on good ground...

The early market had this as a race within a race with (alphabetically) Atrium, Azano, Silver Samurai & Under The Twilight all priced at 9/2 or shorter with the other half of the field all rated 8/1 or bigger and my initial thoughts were that Hills had it spot on with who to follow, but they might not be right!

Silver Samurai was the only one win last time out, but Atrium won two starts ago and both Azano and Under The Twilight were placed on their last runs. Documenting, Azano, Mitrosonfire and Mokaatil are currently winless in six, twelve, twelve and eleven races respectively, which has to be a concern, especially for the latter trio.

Only Atrium, Documenting and Azano actually ran at Class 2 last time out with the other five all now stepping two levels from Class 4, which makes life tougher for the LTO winner/placers Silver Samurai and Under The Twilight, but they are at least running well.

Mokaatil is the only one of the eight yet to win at today's trip, but in fairness he has yet to race over 7f, despite 67 previous outings. He's far better (7 from 37) over 5f than he is over 6f (2 from 30), so I think 7f might be a stretch for him especially from 2lbs out of the handicap, although he is the only previous course winner, having landed a Class 3 handicap over 5f just over a year ago.

All eight have been seen fairly recently with Mitrosonfire (9 days) and Priscilla's Wish (42 days) the quickest turned back out/longest rested, whilst Atrium is the sole headgear-wearer, sporting cheekpieces for the fourth race in a row, including a 7f win at Doncaster on his penultimate outing.

Instant Expert suggests that Azano might well be the weakest of the four market principals...

...and you'd not rush out to back him if that data was all you had to work with! His win record on good ground, at Class 2 and over 7f are frankly lamentable, but none of these scream Class 2 runner, so let's have a look at Class 3 form...

...which still isn't a good look for Azano! Priscilla's Wish is interesting here with a Class 3 win and a 6 from 18 record over today's trip. She was fourth at Newmarket last time out, but has two wins and a runner-up finish from seven starts this year. Atrium and Silver Samurai have the best records on good ground and the former has 3 wins from 7 over this trip.

The draw stats here over 7f at Sandown would suggest that the runners drawn in stalls 2 to 7 have an advantage over those drawn at the extremities...

...which might not be the best news for Silver Samurai in stall 1 and much might rest on how he gets away/involved here. Recently he has tended to race towards the back of the field, as have many of the field if truth be told...

...and if the above is anything to go by, Atrium might well be allowed to grab a soft early lead and dominate the race from the front and according to the pace/draw heat map, he's the best placed of all here, if he leads from a relatively high draw...

Summary

Of the quartet that I (and the early market) thought be the ones to focus on, Silver Samurai & Azano had poor scores on Instant Expert and all bar Azano look like being unsuited by being held up. Azano looks like being able to dictate the pace of the contest here and that should ensure that he makes the frame, but he wouldn't be an obvious winner based on past form under these conditions and at odds ranging from 7/2 to 9/2, I don't think there's much value in either of the four 'originals'.

I'll not be backing any of these to win, but if I was to play here, I might just have a small (and I mean small) E/W flutter on Priscilla's Wish. She has been held up in her last two outings but has also been known to race more prominently, she's not too badly drawn and certainly gets the trip. I won't be risking much money, but at 10/1, she could well be the E/W answer.

Good Luck!

Racing Insights, Thursday 14/09/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.25 Epsom
  • 3.35 Doncaster
  • 4.50 Naas
  • 5.00 Ffos Las
  • 5.35 Ffos Las

...and with an £82k, Class 1 contest on the free list, it would be remiss of me not to cover the Betfred Park Hill Fillies Stakes aka the 3.35 Doncaster. It's a 10-runner, Group 2 flat contest for fillies and mares aged 3 or over and they'll tackle a left-handed 1m6½f on good to soft/soft ground. Here's the card...

On results alone, Night Sparkle brings the best set of recent figures to the table, having won her last three on the Flat (last four overall), but she's the only class mover here, as she steps up from Class 3 for her debut for Andrew Balding's yard. Elsewhere, Sumo Sam made all to land the Gr2 Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood over 1m6f on heavy ground, whilst Ching Shih, Divine Jewel and One Evening were all Class 1 runners-up with Crack of Light also making the frame on her last run. Those four ran at G3, Listed, Listed & Listed class respectively.

We've mentioned that Night Sparkle is up in class for her yard debut already, but I should add that Shamwari wears cheekpieces for the first time and she receives a useful 10lb weight allowance as one of five three year olds in the race, along with Boogie Woogie, Crack of Light, Lmay and Sumo Sam, although the latter bears a 3lb penalty for that excellent win six weeks ago, but still gets 7lbs from most of the field.

That win was 40 days ago and whilst some of the others appear to have been off track longer, those days since last run don't include overseas contests. If we include them, then Sumo Sam's 40-day rest is the longest of the ten runners, whilst Divine Jewel is the quickest back out, 12 days after a runner-up finish at Chester and her record over similar trips to this one is the best on offer today, according to Instant Expert...

In fairness, many of these are untried/untested at this longer trip, but both Night Sparkle and Sumo Sam have picked up wins under similar circumstances, whilst the place data looks like this...

...where only Lmay and possibly Golden Lyra look a little out of their depth/comfort zones. Lmay will be drawn widest of all ten runners, but I'm not convinced that the draw should play too big a role in a race of around a mile and three quarters, but we should always check the data, just in case...

...which is interesting. I'd not expected such a disparity from those drawn lowest, but the above is backed up by the PRB3 figures, which would appear to favour those drawn 4 or higher...

...although the places stats are less conclusive in that direction...

...whilst if we home in on the actual trip of this race, we're then told that front-runners haven't fared too well either...

...which doesn't bode well for the likes of Night Sparkle and/or Boogie Woogie if their recent outings are anything to go by...

...but if truth be told, not many of this field come out well on the pace/draw combo...

Those in the centre do seem to have the best of it, but only Golden Lyra, Boogie Woogie and Nighy Sparkle look out of it.

Summary

For a race of this 'quality' (although I suspect this is a poor renewal), we've not had much help from the data and it may well revert back to form and that unquantifable element : 'gut feeling' and my gut feeling here is that Sumo Sam, One Evening and Ching Shih would be the ones most likely to succeed.

The bookies agree to an extent, as that trio are 4/1, 7/1 and 15/2 respectively and with some firms paying four places, I'd also be interested in Crack of Light at 12/1, but it's not a race that I'll investing much time or money in/on.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 13/09/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.40 Bath
  • 2.05 Carlisle
  • 3.05 Tramore
  • 4.10 Uttoxeter
  • 4.40 Punchestown
  • 7.45 Southwell

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated just one runner and that's based on course 5-year handicap form...

The highest rated of the UK races above is the sole jumps contest, so we're off to Staffordshire for the 4.10 Uttoxeter, an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed two miles on good to soft/soft ground...

Enthused won last time out and has two wins and four places from his last six outings, whilst Simply Red has three wins and two places from her last seven, including winning her last two races. Prince Escalus is 2 from 7 and Call Me Rocky is 2 from 4, but Hurricane Ali and Boom Boom Boom are winless in their last eight and seven respectively.

Most of the field have raced in the last 6-38 days, but Rathmacknee and top-weight Prince Escalus might be excused forneeding the run after breaks of 138 & 164 days, although the latter has finished 1314 after breaks of 110-272 days!

Prince Escalus is one of just two runners not stepping up in class today, Boom Boom Boom being the other and whilst half of the field are up from Class 3, LTO winners Simply Red and Enthused are up two classes.

The latter is however one of two (along with Hurricane Ali) to have already scored over course and distance, whilst all bar Rathmacknee (yard debut today) and Boom Boom Boom have won over a similar trip elsewhere and those course/distance wins are shown below in Instant Expert below, but it's hardly an inspiring graphic...

There has been some limited success on this going, but the four to have tackled Class 2 racing are a combined 0 from 12. We knew we had two course winners and four to have prevailed over this trip. With regards to Class, it might be worth pointing out that four of these have won at Class 3; Glorious Zoff (1 from 5), Hurricane Ali (2/12), Prince Escalus (4/8) and Rathmacknee (1/4), with the Prince having the best record.

The place stats to go with the above graphic look like this...

...where again Prince Escalus looks good at Class 3, but the likes of Boom Boom Boom, Call Me Rocky and Rathmacknee look very vulnerable and I'd probably discount them at this point.

The pace data for similar past races suggests that horses willing to set the pace are rewarded more often than those who don't...

...which would, when looking at the field's more recent efforts, seem to be another tick against the name of Prince Escalus...

...whilst just over the last two races, we end up with the Prince and the two form horses...

...and I think that these are the trio I'd want to be focusing on for this one.

Summary

The likelihood is that despite stepping up two classes, Simply Red & Enthused are likely to be too good for Prince Escalus.

He does go well after a break, but it's always a worry when a horse might need a run. Off a mark on 132, he's some 10lbs higher than his last hurdles win, but his last two wins over fences were off 133 & 134, so this mark isn't beyond him. I'm not sure that he can beat the other two, but at 10/1, I'd be happy to back him each way.

The early market can't split the other pair as 3/1 jt favs and there probably won't be much between them, but if pushed for a winner, I'd probably just side with the course and distance winner Enthused.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 12/09/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...where all those rated at 10 or higher are at least worth a second glance and we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 1.40 Leicester
  • 4.15 Catterick
  • 5.15 Laytown
  • 5.25 Galway
  • 7.25 Galway

I do, where possible, try to 'marry up' the daily free feature with the free racecard list and that's actually possible today, as 11-rated on The Shortlist Vadamiah runs in the 4.15 Catterick (as does 9-rated Texas Man of course), a 9-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good/good to soft ground...

Despite the disparity on the SR figures, this looks a tight, competitive affair, where our feature horse Vadamiah (one of two females in the race) carries top weight, but she does drop three classes here after finishing well down the field (although only 3.5 lengths down) in a £50k Class 2 handicap at the Ebor meeting three weeks ago. Fellow female Havagomecca drops down one class here, as do Castin and Albegone.

Birkenhead steps up a class after back to back runner-up finishes, a pair of results matched by Murbih and with no LTO winners in the field, these two bring the best form to the table, but Papa Don't Preach, Murbih and Jojo Rabbit are winless in 8, 13 and 12 respectively and all three have pretty dismal win records on turf.

Castan is the sole 3 yr old in the field and gets a 1lb allowance for that and he's one of five previous course and distance winners here. All nine have won at least once at this trip and only Havagomecca, Papa Don't Preach, Murbih and Jojo Rabbit have yet to win here at Catterick. Mind you, that last trio who are on long losing runs are 0 from 10, 0 from 13 and 1 from 17 respectively on the Flat, so a win here would be a surprise!

No fitness issues with them all having raced in the last month or so, but Murbih did run on Saturday and although it's a short turnaround, that was his best effort for some time. Instant Expert highlights the poor Flat win records of this trio and also shows why Vadamiah and Texas Man are on The Shortlist...

There's really not a great deal to write home about there with possibly only the two shortlisted runners and Castan emerging with much credit and even the latter has struggled on the going. When i said this might be tight/competitive, I didn't actually say that it was a decent quality, though! Perhaps the place stats will show some of these in a better light...

Well, they say that Castan is better on the going than at first suggested, but the others who looked best on the win stats haven't really enhanced their positions and have been caught up by some of the others. I've seen enough about Papa Don't Preach and Jojo Rabbit to discount them from my thoughts now, though. They're both drawn middle to high here in a race that doesn't (in my opinion) display any real bias or advantage from a stalls positioning...

..but it's one where the emphasis is clearly on early speed as this illustrates only too well...

...and with this field's recent efforts looking like this...

...you'd have to think that Vadamiah would have an excellent chance of grabbing the lead and therefore running on for at least a place and I think if we just look at the field's last two outings we'll get a more realistic view of how they might break...

Summary

It's probably easier if I start by saying who I don't really fancy here! I already ruled out Papa Don't Preach and Jojo Rabbit at an early point and I think that pace will be the undoing for Texas Man and Havagomecca's chances of landing this and that's probably the same for Birkenhead. He's in good nick, but doesn't win often enough and with more than half the field setting off quicker than him, a place is his best shot.

Of the five ahead of him, none are really prolific, but Vadamiah loves it here. Murbih doesn't win on grass and I think Castan is the most interesting of all of them. He may only be 2 from 12 on Turf, but has made the frame seven times, all his best runs have been at this trip and the going will suit him. He has one win and one place from three efforts over course and distance and at 10/1 looks a decent E/W punt for me.

As for a winner? Stick a pin in the card! If pushed Vadamiah's course record and his all-out pace profile probably tip the balance his way, but is he a 10/3 shot here? I'd expected double that, so I'll leave the win bet alone on value, but I expect him to go well.

Racing Insights, Monday 11/09/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.55 Brighton
  • 3.55 Galway
  • 4.30 Galway
  • 5.00 Newton Abbot

I don't particularly like either of the two UK races above, so I'll be taking a look at the day's highest rated race, the sole Class 2 contest in the UK, the 4.25 Newton Abbot. This is an 8-runner handicap hurdle for 4yr olds and older and the trip is a left-handed 3m2½f on good/good to soft ground...

Go Chique was a winner last time out (and is 2 from 5) and Slate Lane comes here seeking a hat-trick after winning both his UK starts despite showing little in Ireland. Mr Yeats has been the runner-up in each of his last four, whilst Tommie Beau has won two from four. Sammylou looks weak on the back of six straight losses.

Only Mr Yeats (now visored for the first time) and Valentino ran in this grade last time, although the latter hasn't raced for ten months with Tommie Beau and Hunting Percival both now stepping up a level. Go Chique, Presenting Yeats and Sammylou are all up two classes, whilst Slate Lane's win at Bangor last month was at Class 5, although he did win at Class 4 two starts ago. This will be his second effort in handicap company after winning on debut at Bangorand he's up in trip and weight here.

Aside from Valentino's ten month absence, the field have all raced in the last five weeks or so and Slate Lane is the only one yet to win at a similar trip to this one. Mr Yeats, Valentino and Presenting Yeats and Sammylou have all won over this type of trip here at Newton Abbot already, whilst Tommie Beau has won a 3m2f chase here as recently as the end of May.

Much of the above and more is covered by Instant Expert, of course...

...where the win stats show Tommie Beau in the best light, whilst Presenting Yeats looks weakest. We can't however ignore the fact that the latter is now rated 16lbs higher than his last hurdle win, but in his defence, that was back in May 2022 and he's been chasing mainly since then and did win over fences off 127 in June! Slate Lane and Mr Yeats are also both considerably higher in the weights than their last hurdles successes. Aside from Presenting Yeats generally weak stats, there aren't too many negatives on those win percentages and if you're an E/W or place punter, the place data suggests Mr Yeats might well be of interest to you...

Today's free feature is the pace element of the racecard and this shows how the field have approached their most recent outings. They are awarded a score of 4 if they led, 3 for a prominent position, 2 for racing in mid-division and 1 for a hold-up run and this group's most recent efforts look like this...

...with top weight and sole mare, Go Chique expected to set the pace with Sammylou a confirmed hold-up type. Presenting Yeats' pace stats are a little misleading though. He has a 4 from LTO, but 3 x 1's before that, so let me briefly explain that he is a front-runner, but is often reluctant to race. So, if he gets away with the others (which he doesn't often enough), he'll probably head the filed early, but the stats suggest he'll miss the break and be slow away, which according to our Pace Analyser could be the end of his chances here...

Summary

My shortlist for the contest doesn't totally tie in with the early market, but that doesn't worry too much, they can't be right all the time!

If I was to split the field in half, I'd want to be siding with (in alphabetical order) Go Chique, Mr Yeats, Slate Lane and Tommie Beau and this quartet are currently (3.20pm on Sunday!) priced at 11/1, 8/1, 4/9 fav and 18/1 respectively and based on his last two runs, Slate Lane is probably the one to beat.

He is however, up in trip by 3f, up three classes and up 10lbs and that doesn't scream 4/9 fav to me, especially when the next in the market is 8/1! I'm not saying he can't/won't win, but I can't be backing him at those odds.

I am, however interested in the other three and I think their prices offer us a good chance of some E/W success with Tommie Beau in particular looking overpriced.

Racing Insights, Saturday 09/09/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

1-year form...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.45 Leopardstown
  • 2.00 Ascot
  • 2.05 Thirsk
  • 2.10 Kempton
  • 3.35 Haydock
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton

...and from the free feature and the free races, there's a UK Group 1 contest (too many runners for my liking) and a couple of Class 2 handicaps, so let's tackle one of those to see how Charlie Appleby's likely favourite Victory Dance might fare in the 3.10 Ascot, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo flat handicap over a right handed 1m4f on good ground...

Gallant Lion has won his last four and overactive comes here on a hat-trick, so they're the ones in the best form, but Victory Dance is 12133 from his five UK starts and Alsakib is 2113 from his four outings, so plenty arrive here in good nick with only Struth struggling to win, having lost seven on the bounce.

Top weight Victory Dance makes a handicap debut here and wears blinkers for the first time, but does drop down a class. Gallant Lion and Dancing In Paris are both up one class and Overactive is up two levels, whilst Benacre wears cheekpieces for the first time.

We should have no fitness issues with all having raced in the last 7-37 days, but we've no previous course winners (mind you, only Struth & Benacre) have been here and only three (Struth, Overactive & True Legend) have won over a similar trip as shown on Instant Expert...

...where Struth looks very weak. Most have won on good ground already, but only Alsakib has won in the grade although I should point out that Victory Dance has won a Listed race. Overactive comes here on a hat-trick after back to backs over this kind of trip, but he is used to slightly quicker ground. That said, it is very dry right now. Let's just have a quick look at the place stats before checking any possible effect of the draw...

Struth remains weak here and after a run of seven defeats, I suspect this now becomes number eight. There's not a lot of data there, but most of it is positive so I'll keep an open mind prior to checking the draw analyser, which suggests that those drawn lowest might struggle...

...whilst our pace analyser says that those races above have suited those runners willing to set the pace or those wanting to hang back for a late run, whilst those caught between the two stools have come off worst...

and the pace/draw combinations look like this...

...suggestiong that thos drawn lowest will need to get a shift on early doors to stand much chance, whilst those drawn highest can sit further back for longest. We know the draw already and we log the pace scores from each horse's run, so we can create a pace/draw heat map for this race...

...where the high drawn mid-division runner would be Victory Dance and possibly True Legend, who would also score well as a hold-up horse. Gallant Lion and Struth play the role of mid-drawn mid-div runners, another successful combination.

Summary

Featured runner Victory Dance ticks boxes on form and ability, his trainer/jockey do really well together and he looks to have the ideal pace/draw profile for this race. He's best priced at 4/1 right now and that's probably as good as I'd hoped for and I don't see many of these beating him. Alsakib would be a possible challenger here, based on form, although the pace/draw is doing him no favours. He's going to be thereabouts, as is Overactive who might well chase Victory Dance in the early stages.

Alsakib is too shot to back E/W at 9/2, but the 7/1 and drifting about Overactive is tempting, despite his step up in class. One at bigger odds who might do better than expected could be widest-drawn hold-up type True Legend. He didn't see 1m6f out last time at York, but was previously in good form over trips like today's and at 10/1 could be an E/W play.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 08/09/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for Friday, but I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.00 Ascot
  • 4.25 Down Royal
  • 5.20 Ascot
  • 5.30 Down Royal
  • 5.40 Newcastle
  • 9.00 Kempton

...the best of which looks like being the 5.20 Ascot, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a straight 7f on good ground...

No recent LTO winners here, although Vermilion did score when last seen some 349 days ago, but the form horse is surely Kimnkate who has finished 1121212 since adopting blinkers in June of this year. Gulmarg, Metahorse and Boy Browning were also placed on their last runs, although both Gulmarg and Metahorse haven't won for a while (both have lost 10 in a row!) with the same applying to Boy Browning (winless in 6), whilst the lightly raced filly, Liberty is a three-race maiden.

She now makes her handicap debut off a mark of 76 and the returning Vermilion also debuts in handicap contests here, but he's rated at 83. He does, however drop a class, whilst Liberty steps up a class. Boy Browning, Starlight Nation and De Bruyne are also up in class with Pastiche, Kimnkate & Zouzanna dropping down.

We know Vermilion has been off for nearly a year, but there shouldn't be any fitmess issues with the others, who aside from Starlight Nation (off 73 days), have all raced in the last two to six weeks. None of the field have won here before, but all bar Havana Pusey, Zouzanna, Boy Browning, Liberty (obviously) and De Bruyne have at least won over today's trip, as shown on Instant Expert...

...where off an admittedly small number of runs, Pastiche is the eye-catcher. Metahorse and Gulmarg seem to have struggled to win at this grade, but quite a few of these have done well at the trip. The place stats are very interesting, though, as Gulmarg and Metahorse are regular Class 4 placers, so maybe they've been unlucky?

...with this quintet the ones with the best overall profile...

These runners are drawn in stalls 3, 4, 5, 7 & 11, but over a straight sprint on good ground there shouldn't be much in the draw and the stats say...

...that there really isn't much in it, so no real advantage to be gained from any of this field, meaning that it might well come down to race tactics aka pace and those races above have gone as follows...

Sadly, we've not got much assistance there either if truth be told. The place stats are very similar across the board and it almost seems strange that hold-up horses do as well as the others. I'll show you how this group have approached their last few races, even if we're not going to use the data...

There should be plenty of early pace with Liberty, Metahorse, Vermilion, Boy Browning and Zouzanna all keen to get on with things here.

Summary

Short and possibly not very sweet today. We've not really got much from pace/draw, but we know which horses are in good form and which horses stood out on Instant Expert and whilst I'm not going to be going in too heavily after not using the pace/draw stats, my money would be for Kimnkate. She has been a revelation since being fitted with blinkers and although up 2lbs here, she looks the one to beat. She's 12121 under today's jockey and 5/1 looks fair enough.

Elsewhere, I'd expect the likes of Metahorse, Gulmarg and Pastiche to be involved, but all are too short to back E/W, whilst those priced at 8's or bigger make little appeal. Sometimes it's best to keep your money in your pocket.

Racing Insights, Thursday 07/09/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.40 Salisbury
  • 5.35 Carlisle
  • 5.45 Wolverhampton
  • 5.55 Clonmel
  • 7.15 Wolverhampton

I'm going to do things in a slightly different order today and I've no idea where it will take me/us! The whole premise of my column is that I put my actions into print in real time and sometimes I end up with nothing. This is perfectly fine, because if there's no bet you like, place no bet and move on!

The highest rated of the four UK races above is the 7.15 Wolverhampton and it also has the most Instant Expert data. The race itself is race 32 of this year's Racing League and it's an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m½f on standard tapeta and here's how the place data for Instant Expert looks for this race...

...where based on overall form, this trio catch the eye most...

...not withstanding that the first of the three has yet to win on the A/W, but has made the frame in all four career starts, whilst the other two are higher in the weights than their last A/W successes, but let's look at the whole card now...

We have no LTO winners here, but all bar Koy Roy and Cry Havoc have a win in their recent form line although both were placed on their latest outings. What's The Story has made the frame in each of his last three and Farasi Lane, Parlando were also placed last time out. There's no real standout on form and we've a real lack of past course/distance success too.

The field have 2 wins and 3 further places from 20 visits to Wolverhampton and have made the frame in 61 of 157 (38.9%) contests over 1m to 1m1f, winning 21 times at a rate of just 13.4, but Harswell Duke did win over this trip at Nottingham on soft ground in October of last year and Young Fire was a Class 5 course and distance winner here back in March.

Parlando last raced a week ago and United Front was seen ten days back, but the remainder have all had two to six weeks rest since their last efforts, from which five are now racing at a different class with Lir Speciale & United Front dropping down a level from Class 2 with Young Fire and the sole female, Cry Havoc both up one class. Night Arc is up two classes after finishing seventh at Newmarket shortly after winning a Class 4 contest, so I'm not sure what to make of him, other than to say he's inconsistent?

We've seen the place data from Instant Expert, but to complete that picture, here's the win percentages...

Not a lot to crow about there, but Lir Speciale is proven in this grade, whilst Hafeet Alain looks generally weak in this context. What's The Story and Young Fire have struggled on standard going with the latter also not faring too well at Class 3, although the former's place stats are far better. Perhaps he's more of a placer than a winner?

The draw has placed the IE weak-looking Hafeet Alain and the double-class riser Night Arc at opposite ends of the stalls, but the general draw data for similar handicaps over the last five years suggests there's not a great deal to be gained from stalls positions...

...although the actually stall-by-stall data & the PRB3 figures do say that those drawn higher than stall nine have tended to struggle and that makes sense, having to travel wider and/or further...

...so that might affect United Front's chances from stall ten. His best bet here in that case is to try and get out sharpish and keep in touch with the pack, as those races above haven't exactly been kind to hold-up horses...

...which doesn't bode well for the likes of Cry Havoc & Young Fire based on recent evidence...

If I was to discount that pair from my list of potential winners, based on pace alone and then remove United Front & Night Arc based on the draw, that leaves me with seven. Hafeet Alain looked weakest on Instant Expert and Cry Havoc is winless in seven. Although What's the Story has made the frame in half of his ten A/W starts, he has won just once, way back in June 2018 and has lost eight on the bounce since then, of which five were on tapeta.

Summary

I'm not saying that the discards can't make the frame, but I've enough reasons not to back any of them for the win, leaving just Lir Royale, Koy Koy, Harswell Duke, Farasi Lane and Parlando as potential winners.

And of those, Lir Speciale would be my pick. His A/W record reads 23311, of which he is 311 at Class 3 and although he's up in trip here, the reports from his last two outings/wins on the A/W read...pressed leader, led over 2f out, ran on well inside final furlong and good headway on inside over 2f out, led over 1f out, ran on well so the trip shouldn't necessarily be an issue here.

Hills are paying four places on this one and at 8/1, he'd be an ideal E/W bet if you're not entirely convinced about his win credentials. 8/1 is my general/nominal cut-off point for E/W bets, so that would currently discount the 5/1 What's The Story and the 6/1 United Front from my original 'trio of interest', but I'm happy to take the 9/1 about Parlando.

Others of possible interest would include Farasi Lane at 8/1 and Koy Koy at 12's.

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 06/09/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.40 Bath
  • 4.39 Hexham
  • 4.50 Lingfield
  • 5.04 Cork
  • 5.39 Cork
  • 7.18 Hexham

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following quartet of runners for me to consider...

14-day form...

1-year course form...

5-year course form...

It's a pretty sire looking day of racing on Wednesday if truth be told. There are 36 UK races across six meetings and the 'best' on offer is half a dozen Class 4 encounters; one of which containing a runner from the TS report, so we're going to have a quick (and it will be quick) look at Nicky Richards' Kajaki and the other horses in the 5.45 Hexham, an 11-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m4f (near enough 2m5f after rail movements) on good ground...

No LTO winners here, but Copper Beach and Malangen made the frame. Belvedere Blast was pulled up, but had won his previous three outings, whilst only Dallas des Pictons, Onward Route and Cousu Main have lost each of their last five.

Top weight Punxsutawney Phil steps up a class here, but both City Derby & Calum Gilhooley are down one level, whilst Belvedere blast & Dallas Des Pictons are aided by a double drop in class.

Four of the field ran 46 days ago and the remainder have all been seen in the last 11 to 33 days, so no fitness excuses here for a field in which only Onward Route, Cousu Main and Calum Gilhooley are yet to win at a similar trip, whilst three horses (Belvedere Blast, Fenna's Loss & Onward Route) have all won here previously; the former over 2m½f and the other pair are course and distance winners.

And now over to Instant Expert...

...where aside from a poor win record at Class 4, Belvedere Blast looks useful. Fenna's Loss, Calum Gilhooley and Kajaki look consistent enough and my main concerns are about Punxsutawney Phil & City Derby on good grounds, Belverdere Blast, Onward Route, Copper Beach, Cousu Main and Malangen at Class 4, Dallas Des Pictons, Onward Route and Cousu Main at the trip plus Copper Beach & City Derby for being considerably higher in the weights than their last winning marks.

Past races here at Hexham have suggested that the further forward a horse runs, the greater chance of making the frame and prominent/leading runners also stand the best chance(s) of winning...

...which based on the field's last few runs...

...would steer you towards the top four on that list and then also possibly the next three for a chance of making the frame. To be honest this race doesn't particularly lend itself too well to finding a winner, although Belvedere Blast was in great form prior to being pulled up last time out. He scored well enough on Instant Expert and is likely to be up with the pace, but before I make a decision, I want to go back to Instant Expert and look at the place stats...

...and the standouts there would seem to be Copper Beach, Belvedere Blast and Onward Route.

Summary

In a tricky/unappealing race, I think I like Belvedere Blast most, but wouldn't want to put too much money down. Only Hills were open at 4.40pm and they were offering 5/1, which isn't generous but probably about right.

Copper Beach & Onward Route both looked good on place stats and the former is another 5/1 shot who might end up being the main challenger to the selection. As for Onward Route, he's a bit hit and miss, but there's definitely a placer in there if he's in the right shape/mood, but I think I'd want at least 12/1 before risking any of my cash and he's currently only 10's.

Onward Route was widely available at 12/1 on Wednesday morning, and had been 16/1 with PP/Betfair for a while.

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