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Racing Insights, Friday 29/09/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers, but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.05 Gowran Park
  • 2.35 Haydock
  • 3.00 Newmarket
  • 5.30 Newcastle
  • 5.35 Gowran Park
  • 7.00 Newcastle

We've had almost a constant deluge of rain in the North West for some while now, which could make life tricky for some runners, so I'm interested in the Haydock card. The free race on the card is for 2yo maiden fillies, which is almost as far removed from anything I like as you could possibly get, but I'm 'staying local' for the last on the card, the 5.25 Haydock. It's a competitive-looking (at first glance, anyway) 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed mile on soft/heavy ground...

Bottom weight Beccara Rose was the only one of the group to win last time out, but Pearl Eye was a runner-up and has been in the frame in 10 of his 11 starts over the last year, winning five times. Rhythm n Rock is the only one without a win in six, having made the frame just once in that run after finishing 3113 in his first four outings.

Only Shahbaz and LTO winner Beccara Rose ran at this grade last time around, as Harswell Duke, Conservationist and the in-form Pearl Eye all step up from Class 4 whilst the top two on the card, Liamarty Dreams and Rhythm n Rock both drop down from Class 2, as does the oldest runner (8yo) Young Fire.

Young Fire is however a former course and distance winner, as are the three year olds Conservationist and Pearl Eye. Liamarty Dreams has also won here at Haydock, scoring over 7f sixteen months ago, whilst Rhythm n Rock, Harswell Duke and Beccara Rose have all won over a mile on other tracks with the latter getting off the mark over this trip at Kempton three weeks ago, but she does look better on the A/W.

Young Fire was actually in action as recently as Tuesday when beaten by 4.5 lengths on soft ground at a higher grade at Nottingham, so he's back out quickly in a field where all runners have seen some action in the last eight weeks (most in the last four!).

Beccara Rose's LTO (and sole) win came on the all-weather, so that won't appear on the flat stats provided by Instant Expert...

...where the in-form Pearl Eye looks like the standard-bearer. Harswell Duke wouldn't mind even more rain to drop, but his Class 3 win record isn't the best. Elsewhere, there are question marks over Young Fire's 3 from 26 at the trip and he'd probably prefer his races to be a little shorter, although he has made the frame in 4 of those 22 defeats (18.2%) as shown below...

...where again Pearl Eye looks the best suited. Young Fire has been consistent on soft ground and loves it here at Haydock, where he has finished 1114 on soft, whilst Shahbaz has been knocking on the door for a Class 3 win and those last two mentioned seem to be in the 'best' part of the draw, as our draw analyser suggests that the winners of similar races have come from stalls 2 to 5

...with those drawn 1 to 5 making the places most often. That's not ideal for the in-form eyecatcher Pearl Eye, but he is only one berth outside that corridor of runners. The pace data for those 30-odd races above point to those making the running faring best of all...

...which again isn't the best news for Pearl Eye, as recent evidence suggests he'll be nearer the back of the field with Rhythm n Rock and Young Fire, whilst the likes of Liamarty Dreams and Conservationist set the tempo...

All isn't lost, though, as when we combine pace & draw together, only Shahbaz looks like being inconvenienced and even then, he's pretty close to being in the green...

Summary

The pace/draw heat map suggests that any of these can win from any stall and if it's that open/competitive, I want to be with Pearl Eye. He's in great form (1321311 over this trip) and has won on both soft and heavy. He's currently 7/2 and that's probably a fair assessment of his chances.

Had this race been elsewhere on better ground, I'd probably not be interested in Young Fire, but he's a different animal on the soft ground at Haydock and at 9/1 with Bet365, I like him as an E/W possible. As for another placer, you could make a claim for most of them if truth be told, but only Harswell Duke is at an E/W price. He's 18/1 right now and on his form from October '22 to April this year, he'd be a cracking bet, but hasn't looked the same animal since taking the summer off. Perhaps it'll all click back into place?

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 28/09/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.40 Bellewstown
  • 2.10 Pontefract
  • 4.10 Newmarket
  • 4.15 Clonmel
  • 4.30 Pontefract

The three free UK races above are a Class 6 Apprentice Handicap, a 4-runner affair and a Nursery respectively and none of those appeal to me at all, so with feature of the day in mind, I'm looking elsewhere and I've spotted something that piqued my interest.

The 7yr old mare Gale Force Maya was withdrawn from a race I covered last week, but she's set to re-appear in the 3.00 Newmarket on Thursday a race she won in 2021 and Instant Expert suggests she'll have favourable conditions (more on this shortly, of course!) again.

The race itself, is an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground that will be good in places due to the showers forecast...

Frankness is our sole LTO winner, but Al Simmo was a one-length runner-up behind her that day and Minnetonka also finished second on her last run. All bar featured horse Gale Force Maya, Sweet Harmony and Ivory Madonna have won at least once in their last seven outings, but this trio is winless in 7, 9 and 9 days respectively, the latter still being a maiden after 9 efforts.

In a bid to break her cold spell, Gale Force Maya will wear blinkers for the first time, whilst Kinta and Ivory Madonna will have their first outings in a hood and a visor respectively. The latter steps up one class here, as do River Pride and Alcazan, whilst Urban Decay is up two levels. Sweet Harmony, however, steps down to Class 2 after running in a Listed race at Ayr last week.

At 6 days rest, she's turned back out the quickest, although all the field bar Gale Force Maya (33 days off) have raced in the last three weeks. The latter's success in this race two years ago makes her the only previous course (and CD) winner, but all of her rivals except River Pride, Ivory Madonna and Urban Decay have scored over today's trip, as shown by Instant Expert...

Gale Force Maya is far more experienced under these conditions, but has a good set of results behind her and at 7lbs lower than her last winning mark, could well be dangerously weighted here. The only cause for concern from that data above is Alcazan's 1 from 9 on the going, but she has at least made the frame in two of the eight defeats, putting a slightly better perspective on her place stats...

...which again point to a big run from Gale Force Maya. Al Simmo's place percentages are even better than GFM's, though and if she's likely to do well, then we also need to add Frankness into the mix, as she beat Al Simmo last time out, but she is 3lbs worse off here. This trio are drawn pretty close together in stalls 4, 6 and 7 and our draw analyser suggests that Al Simmo (in #4) might have a bit of an advantage over the other pair...

...and this will be of interest to followers of River Pride, who has the rail and a decent set of Instant Expert place stats, but he'll have to be away sharper than he has in his last two outings...

...because those races I've used for the draw analysis have favoured those setting the pace...

...meaning that ideally we'd be on one drawn relatively low with a penchant for early speed...

...and with our race's heat map looking like this...

...some clearly make more appeal than others.

Summary

For me, based on the data above, it's Al Simmo for me at 5/1. She's in good nick and only lost narrowly last time out. She scored well on Instant Expert and seems to have the best pace/draw make-up of the field.

If Al Simmo is my pick, then Frankness won't be too far away based on their match three weeks ago. Gale Force Maya was the pick on Instant Expert, has won this race before and looks dangerously weighted, whilst Executive Decision has three wins and a runner-up finish from her last six efforts over a similar trip, so she can't be discounted either.

Al Simmo and this trio should contain the first three home and the challenging trio are currently 7/2, 7/1 and 7/1 respectively, so I wouldn't be suggesting Frankness as an E/W option.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 27/09/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.00 Bellewstown
  • 2.10 Sligo
  • 3.40 Goodwood
  • 5.02 Redcar
  • 7.30 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have sadly yielded no UK qualifiers, so I'm going to take a look at the 3.40 Goodwood, an 8-runner, 3yo+, Listed flat race over a right-handed 1m2f on soft/heavy ground...

Bill Silvers and Sierra Blanca both won their last outings, but both are coming back from lengthy absences of 152 and 325 days respectively, during which time the latter has moved yards from Aidan O'Brien to Freddie & Martyn Meade. My Prospero was a runner-up last time out and all bar Rousay have at least one win in their last five starts, but she has been beaten in each of her last seven since a Listed win 13 months ago.

All bar There's The Door and Bill Silvers raced at Class 1 last time around, but this pair step up 1 and 3 classes respectively and the latter is making little appeal so far! Aside from Bill Silvers and Sierra Blanca coming off breaks, the rest of the field have allr aced in the last two months and the two coming off breaks are the only ones yet to win at this trip.

Three horses have won at this venue before and all three (King of Conquest, Savvy Victory & There's The Door) are former course and distance winners, as shown below on Instant Expert...

...where off admittedly small sample sizes, King of Conquest and There's The Door are the eyecatchers. Rousay looks weak at course/distance and Savvy Victory has struggled to win Class 1 contests with a 1 in 7 record. He has only made the frame on one of his six defeats at C1 too, as seen in these place stats...

...where again King of Conquest and There's The Door score well, as do My Prospero and Persist. My Prospero's record at Class 1 reads 133442 with a Listed success and two narrow defeats when third home at Gr 1. He was a runner-up beaten by just half a length in a Gr 2 at York last time out and sets the standard on form here. He's drawn in the high third of the draw today over a track/trip/going that hasn't actually shown much of a draw bias...

...so none of this field should feel they're already at a disadvantage based on which stall they've been allocated, but the pace profiling does have a bearing on the outcome, as those races above have favoured runners willing to take it on early...

...essentially suggesting that the further forward a horse runs, the greater the chance of success and that's repeated in the place data too; those racing prominently or leading have bagged 55.74% of the places from just 45.28% of the runners, which is 23% more than expected.

Sadly, there doesn't seem to be a front-runner in this pack, although King of Conquest set the pace when wining at Newmarket in May (four races back)...

...and we may end up with a falsely run race, which would play into the hands of the better quality runners.

Summary

Based on past exploits, My Prospero has to be the one to beat. His Class 1 form is excellent and ran really well last time out. His pace profile suggests he's going to be handily placed to keep an eye on what's going on around him and if he 'gets' the soft/heavy ground, should be landing this one. The problem for me is that he's 8/13 and 8/15 with the two firms showing prices and that's way too short for me for a horse with no heavy ground experience and just one outing on soft.

That's not to say he won't 'get' the ground and go on to win, of course, but I see little value in the odds available. A positive side to such a short fav is that we might get better E/w prices about others and the one I fancy as the main challenge has to be King of Conquest. He ticked the Instant Expert box and might well set the tempo here and he's currently 13/2, which is a little longer than I thought he'd be, if truth be told.

That's still a little on the short side for an E/W bet, though, so if you wanted to look further down the card/odds, bottom weight There's The Door might be the one at 20/1!

Racing Insights, Tuesday 26/09/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where I suppose Holkham Bay would be of the most obvious immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 1.20 Cork
  • 2.25 Lingfield
  • 4.15 Cork
  • 4.35 Beverley
  • 8.00 Newcastle

To be honest, none of the UK 'free' races nor those on The Shortlist float my boat today, so I'm looking elsewhere for my column. Nottingham has a handful of Class 2 handicaps, the middle one of which is the 4.25 Nottingham, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a eft-handed 1m2f on good to soft/soft ground...

Olympicus and Eton College both won last time out, but Golden Maverick, Warren Hill, Damascus Steel, Jewel Maker and Ectocross all have wins in their recent formlines. None of these raced at Class 2 last time around, in fact they're all up in class by two to four levels and all raced in the last six weeks.

Warren Hill and Damascus Steel are former course and distance winners, but only Eton College (1m½f) of their rivals has won here before, but all bar Gordon Grey (first-time cheekpieces today), Hakuna Babe, Eton College, The Conqueror and Corsican Caper (first-time blinkers today) have won over today's trip, as verified by Instant Expert...

...which looks good for Golden Maverick, based on the going and the trip. He's never been to Nottingham before and has no Class 2 experience, but neither really have his rivals. Jewel Maker looks up against on the going, though, failing to win any of 18 attempts and the place data below says he's only made the frame in three of those races...

The ones faring best on the place data would be Damascus Steel, Eton College, Golden Maverick and Warren Hill and this quartet are drawn together in stalls 7 to 10 over a track and trip that has marginally favoured those drawn lowest...

...and also those preferring to set the pace...

Again, the bias isn't huge but when you align the draw stats that just about favour the low drawn horses with the pace stats that are slightly for those setting the tempo, the pace/draw heat map shows more of a combined bias...

...with low drawn leaders making the frame in 13 of 29 efforts (44.8%), going on to win six times (20.7%)...

Sadly, there aren't many here who like to lead and I suspect we're in for a falsely run race...

Summary

We're not actually getting much help from the pace/draw angles here but we know that Olympicus, Eton College, Golden Maverick, Warren Hill, Damascus Steel, Jewel Maker and Ectocross are all in decent nick and that Damascus Steel, Eton College, Golden Maverick and Warren Hill caught my eye on Instant Expert, which makes the trio of Eton College, Golden Maverick and Warren Hill of interest to me here.

This trio are priced at 15/2, 4/1 jt fav and 4/1jt fav respectively and if pushed to make a bet on one to win, I think I'd lean towards Golden Maverick with Eton College a possible E/W bet, especially with some firms paying 4 places.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 25/09/23

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The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 2.30 Warwick
  • 3.00 Down Royal
  • 3.05 Warwick
  • 3.55 Roscommon
  • 5.30 Wolverhampton

Of the three UK races above, the one with the most variation in runner pace profiles in the 3.05 Warwick, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m4f on good ground...

Glajou won last time out and has a win and two places from his last three starts, as does Gold Link, whilst Are U Wise To That has won two of four, finishing third in his other two starts and runs in a handicap for only the second time. Romanor has lost nine on the bounce, whilst Kadex is a seven-race (placed just once, pulled up three times) maiden.

Are U Wise To That and Notnowlinda have both won at this venue before, but like Haas Boy, Feuille de Lune and Kadex (obviously) have yet to win at a similar trip to this one. These stats are highlighted in Instant Expert, of course...

...where we start with all NH form. Form horses Glajou & Gold Link haven't really fared too well at this going or class and Haas Boy also has a poor record at Class 4, as does Romanor, who is 0/10 at this trip. At present the top of the card looks the place to be, so let's have a quick look at the place stats...

This is an altogether better picture and Gold Link seems to have redeemed himself. I would, however, rule Romanor out at this stage as we move solely to chase form, where only four runners have any data...

...with Blaze A Trail the pick of the bunch. Romanor's numbers are better over fences, but I'd rather back a debutant than back him!

With regards to feature of the day, PACE, similar past races here at Warwick have been won as follows...

...where leaders have tended to struggle. We log the running style of every runner and this is how this field have approached their last four outings...

Blaze A Trail, Stan's The Man and Feuille de Lune look like the ones most likely to set the pace here and I think that will be to the detriment of their chances, even if two already have decent chase records. Those held up for a run have done well here and form horse Glajou is expected to sit and bide his time, as he did over a similar trip at Worcester a fortnight ago, hitting the front four fences out and pulling away to a 12 length victory, without really exerting himself.

Summary

Based on form, the manner of his last win, his liking for this trip and the fact he's a hold-up sort, Glajou is the one to beat here for me and I expect Gold Link to be on the premises too. This pair are currently 3/1 and 7/1 and the latter might well make a decent E/W bet.

Elsewhere Are U Wise To That is of interest if he takes to the larger obstacles, whilst of those with chasing experience, Blaze A Trail might well outrun his 12/1 price ticket. The early pace might put paid to his chances of winning, but he's certainly capable of holding on for a place, especially if you get on with Skybet who pay four places.

Racing Insights, Saturday 23/09/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

...14-day form...

...1-year form...

...1-year course form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.25 Ayr
  • 3.10 York
  • 3.20 Listowel
  • 3.35 Ayr
  • 4.05 Catterick
  • 5.30 York

The first of those free races has two of our highlighted trainer/jockey combos, but 25-runner sprints aren't really my bag if truth be told, so I'm going a little off-piste today and setting the TJC report and the free races aside to take a look at one of the highest-rated handicap races of the day, the the 1.15 Ayr, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a a left-handed mile on good to soft/soft ground...

Top-weight Koy Koy, Isla Kai and Redarna all won last time out, whilst 2021's winner Revich, Titan Rock and Judgment Call all made the frame. Sole 3yo (4lbs allowance for this) and sole female Sirona is winless in six, whilst it's 16 losses on the bounce for Fools Rush In.

Only four of this field (inc LTO winner Isla Kai) ran at this grade last time out as Koy Koy, Diamondonthehill, Stormbuster and Judgment Call all step up a class, whilst both Redarna and Fools Rush In are up from Class 4, but none of these should be too rusty, having all raced in the last five weeks or so.

Revich won this race over course and distance two years ago and Redarna has also won over track and trip. Judgment Call and Titan Rock have won here at Ayr over 7/7½f and the latter has won over a mile elsewhere, as have Koy Koy, Isla Kai, Diamondonthehill and Stormbuster, as verified by Instant Expert...

...which apart from a dismal record at Class 2, suggests Redarna will enjoy the conditions. In fairness, none of these have exactly set the world alight at this level, but Redarna is 5 from 19 at Class 3, where Isla Kai is 4 from 6. Quite a few of these do, however, have decent records at making the frame at Class 2, so all might not be lost...

...and from this, I'm probably most interested in Isla Kai, Koy Koy, Redarna, Revich and Stormbuster, who are spread across the track from stalls 1 to 9 over a track and trip that hasn't been too kind to those drawn highest...

...which isn't good news for Koy Koy, Revich or Sirona. It's not the end of the world, of course, because the pace/draw heat map suggests that these three have a great chance of winning if they can get away sharply...

...but they certainly don't want to be down the field in the early stages, as hold-up horses have tended to struggle...

...with those racing furthest forward having the best chance of making the frame. We can now check how this field have approached their last few outings to help us make a reasoned assumption as to how they'll race here...

My deduction from the above is that we might end up with a falsely run race, with no real pacemakers and no hold-up horses, although Stormbuster, Isla Kai and Judgment Call have led in one of their last four outings.

Summary

Isla Kai brings the best 3-race form to the table here and of the three LTO winners, he's the only one not stepping up in class. he had no red on the place form on Instant Expert, and has made the frame in four of five starts on good to soft. There's a good chance there'll be more rain at Ayr and he's three from three on soft ground. he won far more cosily than the bare result suggested at Ripon last month and he's the one to beat here.

He was the 4/1 fav at 5.45pm on Friday and I'm happy enough at that, as I though he might well be more towards the 3/1 mark. I'd expect the toughest challenges to come from the likes of Revich, who won this race two years ago and ran well enough to make the frame at Chester last time out, despite being drawn almost on the road by the track (stall 10!) and he's currently 11/2.

Of those priced in what I'd call E/W territory, Redarna (8/1) seemed well suited by his Instant Expert profile, whilst the 12/1 Judgment Call is 3123 in his last four starts and has won twice here at Ayr.

Racing Insights, Friday 22/09/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have sadly produced no qualifiers, but thankfully our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.35 Newton Abbot
  • 2.50 Ayr
  • 3.50 Listowel
  • 4.50 Dundalk
  • 5.15 Kempton
  • 7.45 Kempton

...the pick of which must surely be the Arran Scottish Sprint EBF Fillies Stakes aka the 2.50 Ayr, a 13-runner, Listed race for 3yo+ fillies and mares over a straight 5½f on good/good to soft ground and here's how they look on the card...

None managed to win last time out, but Aussie Girl has been the runner-up in each of her last three after winning four races ago. She has two wins and six places from her last eight starts (13221222), which is about as good as it gets for this field's recent form. Funny Story, Marine Wave and Secret Angel were also in the frame last time around, but the latter pair are both winless in at least six, as is Gale Force Maya.

Seven of the field raced in Class 1 action last time around, but Gale Force Maya (now blinkered for the first time), Marine Wave, Radio Goo Goo, Sophia's Starlight and Sweet Harmony all step up from Class 2 with Silent Words up two classes, depsite finishing last of seven at Thirsk earlier this month.

The vast majority of the field have raced in the last month or so, but Pink Crystal and Rum Cocktail return from ten-week breaks and as 4 yr olds, they're 2lbs worse off with the ten 3yo's in the field, as is the 7yo Gale Force Maya, who is the sole course and distance winner, by virtue of landing this race last year (that said, she is 0 from 7 and placed just once since).

None of her rivals have won here before, but Aussie Girl did win over 5½f at the end of April. Instant Expert says that all bar Marine Wave, Perdika and Silent words have won over 5f to 6f on turf, though...

There's not a huge deal of green there, but Sophia's Starlight would seem to be happy with the ground conditions and the trip. We're a bit shy on Class 1 winners, but Gale Force Maya is 5 from 14 at Class 2, whilst the corresponding place data for those races above is as follows...

...with the ones creating most initial interest being Perdika, Gale Force Maya, Pink Crystal, Aussie Girl and Queen Me.

As you'd probably expect, there's not a huge draw bias over a straight 5½f, although those drawn highest have won slightly more often...

...but the lower a horse is drawn the better its chances of making the frame have been, so mixed messages here and it's highly likely that pace will determine the winner/placers rather than the draw and here's how those 40-odd races above have been won...

...where hold-up horses have done surprisingly well over a short trip, almost achieving a par score for A/E, but as is often the case in a sprint contest, those getting out quickest have fared the best, which based on recent activity, would be good news for Aussie Girl and Queen Me from the Instant Expert shortlist, but Sophia's Starlight looks like the one most likely to set the tempo...

...and she's no mug. She didn't run particularly well last time out, but 7f on quick ground at York is nothing like she'll face here and prior to that York run, she had finished 131311521 in her eight runs this year, having made all in her five wins and Instant Expert highlighted her form at going/distance as the best.

She's drawn centrally in stall 6 and looks well favoured by the pace/draw heat map...

Summary

I really like Sophia's Starlight here and although I'm not sure she's the winner of this contest, I'm happy to back her E/W. Only Hills had prices up at 3pm on Thursday, but 10/1 is workable or you might want to wait until those firms offering four places open up.

I also fancy the chances of Aussie Girl and Queen Me. Both were on the IE shortlist, both will be up with the pace and the latter is in excellent form. Queen Me's efforts in Group 1 defeats on her last two outings might well be the best recent runs from any of these runners and this represents a major drop in quality and it's highly likely that she's going to be the one to beat here. 9/2 isn't overly generous, but I'd say it was fair.

As for Aussie Girl, I'd be surprised if she didn't make the frame : she normally does, but 13/2 is a little on the short side for me to go E/W. That said, she's a major player here and wouldn't be a bad bet.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 21/09/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 2.50 Listowel
  • 3.00 Ayr
  • 4.45 Ayr
  • 5.05 Yarmouth
  • 5.45 Listowel

On paper, the 'best' of the three UK races above (I rarely get involved in Irish racing) looks like being the first ie the 3.00 Ayr, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good/good to soft ground...

Cockalorum and Painters Palette boith won last time out and the latter is two from his last three. Elsewhere, Mr Alan won three starts ago, Austrian Theory won 6 races back and Auld Toon Loon has won two of five; the rest are winless of late.

Only three of the field raced at Class 2 on thier last outing as Cockalorum, painters palette and What's The Story all step up a class, whilst both Auld Toon Loon and Fools Rush In are up two levels, despite failing to make the frame last time out.

All bar Mr Alan have raced in the last 8 (Fools Rush In) to 38 (Cockalorum) days, but he might well need a run after a 265-day absence from the track. That said he has won here in the past, scoring over a mile almost two years ago. Two others have also won here, as both Euchan Glen and What's The Story are course and distance winners. Mr Alan, Auld Loon Toon and Cockalorum have also won over similar trips elsewhere.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, looks like this for win and place percentages...

I'm always a little concerned when win percentages are shown as red after 10 races or more, which raised quite a few issues here, such as Euchan Glen (class), Austrian Theory (going), What's The Story (going/class/distance!), Cockalorum (going/class) and Fools Rush In (class). Euchan Glen looks the pick on course and distance, whilst his going stats are no worse than the others and he's the standout on the place data as the only one with no red!

Draw stats from previous similar contests suggest that those drawn lowest have fared the best...

...whilst the pace data suggests that leaders often struggle to hang on and eventually get beaten...

...so, when the pace draw heat map says that you're best off with those drawn low and running prominently, it doesn't come as much of a surprise!

...although hold-up horses drawn centrally have done pretty well too, so as we already know the draw, let's look at the field's recent pace profiles...

...with the three highlighted runners fitting the pace/draw heat map best.

Summary

Painters Palette brings the best form to the race and whilst his Instant Expert scores aren't brilliant, he hasn't had that many races under these conditions, but he does have the ideal pace/draw setup for this contest. In all, he'd be my one to beat, but his current (5.30pm) 11/4 price looks a little on the skinny side.

Austrian Theory also looks good on the heat map, but in the absence of front-running Marie's Diamond (non-runner), I suspect he'll end up being the pacemaker along with Auld Toon Loon and that's not normally a recipe for success here.

Euchan Glen, however, is likely to be towards the rear, an ideal spot for a centrally drawn runner. His recent form hasn't been great, but he does love it here, he's down in trip and Instant Expert gives him a great chance of making the frame, as do I. I don't place E/W bets at 6/1, so wouldn't be backing him, but I do think he'll make the frame.

I probably won't have an E/W bet here as only Austrian Theory (16/1), Thundering (20/1) and Fools Rush In (20/1) are longer than 6/1, but if I was to pick one of that trio to outrun the odds, it might well be Fools Rush In, receiving weight all round, but it's not a bet I'd be placing. Austrian Theory might well set the pace and cling on for a place if they don't come after him early, but again, it's be a watching brief for me here.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 20/09/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.55 Sandown
  • 3.45 Yarmouth
  • 3.50 Listowel
  • 4.50 Sandown

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have only highlighted one trainer in short-term form...

14-day form...

...but as In The Trenches runs in one of our 'free' races, I really should take a look at the 4.50 Sandown, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good to soft ground...

Star Ahoy and Born Ruler both won their last starts and the latter has two wins and two places from his last five. Miss Dolly Rocker won her penultimate race and has made the frame in all seven career outings. Featured horse In The Trenches is a four-race maiden, whilst Miller Spirit is 0 from 5.

A few of these are short of handicap experience with Goldsborough, Ashtanga, In The Trenches and Miss Dolly Rocker all having just their second crack, whilst LTO winner Star Ahoy is a handicap debutant today and like In The Trenches and bottom weight Outgun he steps up a class here.

New Dayrell and Miss Dolly Rocker both drop a class, but Goldsborough is down teo levels and sports a hood for the first time, Miller Spirit makes a debut in cheekpieces.

Both Born Ruler and New Dayrell have already won over course and distance, whilst Star Ahoy and Miss Dolly Rocker have won over 1m2f at Pontefract and Nottingham respectively. Born Ruler's win over track and trip was just five days ago and he's turned back out quickest here, but most of the field have raced in the last seven weeks. Star Ahoy has been off for ten weeks whilst Ashtanga/In The Trenches haven't been seen since early June and may need the run.

Born Ruler has never raced on good to soft, but his LTO win over course and distance gives him plenty of green on Instant Expert, albeit off just the one run under these conditions...

He does, however, bear a 6lb penalty for last week's win and New Dayrell is still 4lbs higher than his last win, three starts ago, despite being eased a couple of pounds today. His last two efforts off 79 were fairly lacklustre. We already knew that Miller Spirit was a 5-race maiden, so the above line of red was no surprise, but despite all his races being over similar trips to today, we can now see that he hasn't even made the frame yet...

...making him the first to be cut from my considerations even before we consider whether the draw will have much impact.

Our draw analyser would initially suggest that those drawn lowest would be best placed here...

...but when I look at the actual stall-by-stall data, I'm not entirely convinced that the bias is as strong as above...

...as the data has been skewed by what can only be an anomalous 0 from 37 for stall 6. There's no rhyme nor reason for one stall to have struggled like that and if we look at the PRB3 figures, stall 8 (Born Ruler) is deemed to be the best place to run from...

...so for me, the draw stats can only be described as inconclusive, which then places greater emphasis (and a hope for some help!) on the pace data, where our pace analyser says that this type of race can be won from anywhere in the pack, but that leaders fare best and the further forward you race, the better the chance of making the frame...

...which based on recent efforts suggests another big run from the ever-consistent Miss Dolly Rocker, who seeks to make it 8 places from 8 starts...

Summary

The one I liked best here was Born Ruler; he's in great form and has won recently over course and distance and the manner of his win last week suggested that he had plenty in hand. That said, this ground is softer than he has faced before and he is up 6lbs, which makes life tougher. In all likelihood, he's the one to beat here, but there's not a great deal of value/scope in Hill's early (4.30pm) 9/4 price tag. Ideally, I'd have managed to another half point from them, but maybe other firms will be a little more generous.

The softer conditions won't affect Miss Dolly Rocker, though; she was a good to soft ground runner-up last time out when unlucky to bump into a horse winning for the fourth time in eight starts. She drops in class here and will aim to add to a soft ground win two starts ago. She hasn't been out of the frame in any of her seven career outings and I fancy that to become eight here and at attractive odds of 13/2, I think she's worth a quid or two.

The frame should then be completed by the LTO winner, Star Ahoy, who currently shows at 4/1. He narrowly won over this trip last time out on ground that was a little softer than good and although up in class and weight, should still be on the premises. I can't back him at 4's, of course, but he should go well without the pressure of my money on his back!

Racing Insights, Tuesday 19/09/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

And we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.15 Yarmouth
  • 3.25 Yarmouth
  • 4.25 Listowel
  • 7.30 Newcastle

...from all of which, I think I'll see how Forceful Speed from The Shortlist might get on in the 3.35 Redcar, a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

Ron O and Forceful Speed both won last time out and are both two from five. Stressfree won his penultimate race. Skilled Warrior and Bringbackmemories won five/six starts ago respectively, but Highwaygrey and Flight of Angels are winless in their recent formline and the latter now steps up in class, as does Bringbackmemories.

Stressfree makes a yard, a UK and a handicap debut after just three outings in France for Carlos Laffon-Parias, finishing 217 in the process and he, along with Forceful Speed and the sole filly Flight of Angels all receive a 5lb allowance as 3 yr olds.

Ron O, Skilled Warrior and Stressfree are yet to win over a similar trip, although they have won over a mile, a mile and 1m1f respectively, whilst Instant Expert says that of the three to have already raced here at Redcar, only Ron O (2 from 2) has won at the track and the lack of a 1m2f victory aside, he does seem to be well suited by conditions...

...although he is up 7lbs for that win 24 days ago, whereas Forceful Speed is only 2lbs higher than his LTO win. There doesn't seem to be too many horror stories above, win-wise, although you might think that Skilled Warrior and Flight of Angels weren't quite at Class 4 standard and it is Ron O and Forceful Speed who catch the eye here. The draw might be a factor here as those two will emerge from the lowest and highest stalls, so let's see if that could sway our decision making...

And that looks like much better news for Forceful Speed than Ron O, but the pace data suggests that if the latter can get out and set/be up with the pace, it might not be a total disaster...

...but sadly Ron O doesn't look like the type to set the tempo of a race and it's likely that Forceful Speed and Flight Of Angels will be the ones leading them out from stalls 1 & 5 respectively and we'd have to hope than the latter can tow Ron O into the race...

Summary

Forceful Speed was always going to be of interest, but I really liked Ron O until the pace/draw data cast a bit of a shadow over him. I still think he'll go well and is more than capable of winning this, but if he doesn't follow Flight of Angels early, as she tacks across, then his chance might be gone. Elsewhere Forceful Speed has the plum draw and is likely to get out sharpish, meaning he can hold the rail and take the shortest route and it's for this reason that I'm taking him at 11/4 (Hills @ 4.45pm) to beat the 7/1 (Hills) Ron O.

That said, 7/1 is a decent E/W option and I fancy Ron O to be ahead of Flight of Angels late on.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 16/09/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

14-day form...

1-year form...

course 5-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Doncaster
  • 1.58 Lingfield
  • 2.10 Navan
  • 4.40 Gowran Park
  • 5.20 Doncaster
  • 7.10 Musselburgh

The last two of the 'free' races each have a runner from my TJC Report and although it has more runners than I'm usually comfortable with, the better rated of the two is the 5.20 Doncaster, a 15-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on soft ground...

Only The Gatekeeper comes here off the back of a win, but Brunch, Empirestateofmind, Spirit Catcher (won two starts back) and Freedom Day (won three races ago) were all in the frame on their last outings.

All have raced in the last two (Spioradalta) to eight (Liberty Lane) wee and most of these ran in this grade last time out, but Pisanello steps up a class and it's a two-step rise for Titian, Freedom Day and Look Back Smiling.

That latter pair are both 3 yr olds and they receive a 4lb weight allowance here, as does Spioradalta, who once again wears cheekpieces, as does Look Back Smiling. Elsewhere Spirit Catcher wears a hood, Blue For You has a visor and both Sonny Liston & Empirestateofmind are blinkered. La Trinidad, Spioradalta and Look Back Smiling will all be ridden by claiming jockeys, but the latter pair run from 3lbs and 7lbs out of the handicap here.

All bar Sonny Liston, Liberty Lane, Spioradalta and Look Back Smiling have already won over a similar trip, but onlt La Trinidad has won over course and distance. That said, Titian's win here over 1m2f almost two years ago is the only other course success, as Instant Expert says that the field are 3 from 15 here at Doncaster...

We do have some past soft ground form, but the field have generally disappointed at Class 2. We've touched on the course/distance wins, of course and the above doesn't really inspire. It does. however, suggest that some have tried and failed several times under expected conditions with Brunch, Empirestateofmind, La Trinidad and Dutch Decoy having struggled to win at this grade, whilst Brunch and Spirit Catcher's percentages over this trip leave work to do at 3 from 24. There is, of course, the possibility that they've been unlucky or have been 'there or thereabouts' in defeat, so let's check the place stats...

...where the likes of Empirestateofmind, Titian, Pisanello and Spioradalta have performed best.

We have fifteen runners strung across the track for a straight mile and I wasn't expecting to see much of a draw bias and the stats haven't let me down in that respect...

Sadly, this doesn't get me any closer to finding a winner or an E/W bet, but I suppose those drawn lowest might have a small advantage based on the above, but I suspect it will be a case of 'pace wins the race', by which I mean the horses that has the best tactics. Those races above for the draw stats have best suited those setting the tempo from the front...

...which based on recent efforts opens the door for the likes of Spirit Catcher, Titian and The Gatekeeper....

I also suppose that if we ignore his last outing, Liberty Lane will also be keen to apply early pressure.

Summary

This looks a wide open race and I can see why Sonny Liston is the early favourite after some creditable runs in defeat. I can't back him at 9/2 or 11/2 in a 15-runner race, though. Not when he's only 1 from 12 on turf and 0 from 5 at this trip. I know he has contested better races than this, but his sole win was at Class 4 in a 7f Novice event on debut more than 26 months ago. I'm not saying he can't win, but his current odds offer me no comfort.

So, where do I stand? Well, I want to reconsider form, Instant Expert and pace...

The Gatekeeper, Brunch, Empirestateofmind, Spirit Catcher and Freedom Day appeared to be bringing the best recent form to the table, whilst the likes of Empirestateofmind, Titian, Pisanello and Spioradalta had the best place scores on Instant Expert. The pace angle pointed to Spirit Catcher, Titian, The Gatekeeper and Liberty Lane.

It's not exactly scientific, but in those three areas I've just revisited, the names of Empirestateofmind, Spirit Catcher, The Gatekeeper and Titian all appear twice, so this quartet are going to be my E/W possibles. And as of 4.15pm on Friday, my quartet were priced at 8/1, 10/1, 11/1 and 16/1 and I'd be happy to back any/all of them to make the frame. I'm not necessarily saying any are good enough to win, but who knows in such an open race?

The bookies are paying four places (5 at Sky, of course), so you can take your pick. As for the one I like best of the four; probably The Gatekeeper.

He won a similar soft ground, 1m, Class 2 handicap last time out when ridden by today's jockey Rossa Ryan for the first time and was a decent second in the 20-runner Golden Mile at Glorious Goodwood last month, when beaten by just half a length. He was first home of those drawn low and had Dutch Decoy a length and a place behind him with Sonny Liston a further two mplaces and 1.5 lengths further back.

Please Note : I'm away all weekend moving my youngest into university at Exeter (just 270 miles from home!), so I won't be around on Sunday to preview Monday's action, sorry.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 15/09/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are fairly restrictive and have sadly produced no UK qualifiers, but thankfully our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards and for Friday they are...

  • 2.25 Doncaster
  • 3.25 Downpatrick
  • 4.25 Sandown
  • 4.30 Chester
  • 5.35 Sandown

The Doncaster race is a Group 2 sprint, but I tend not to get involved with 2 yr olds too much, so I'm going to tackle the 4.25 Sandown, an 8-runner (fingers crossed they all run for E/W purposes), 4yo+, Class 2 flat handicap over a right-handed 7f on good ground...

The early market had this as a race within a race with (alphabetically) Atrium, Azano, Silver Samurai & Under The Twilight all priced at 9/2 or shorter with the other half of the field all rated 8/1 or bigger and my initial thoughts were that Hills had it spot on with who to follow, but they might not be right!

Silver Samurai was the only one win last time out, but Atrium won two starts ago and both Azano and Under The Twilight were placed on their last runs. Documenting, Azano, Mitrosonfire and Mokaatil are currently winless in six, twelve, twelve and eleven races respectively, which has to be a concern, especially for the latter trio.

Only Atrium, Documenting and Azano actually ran at Class 2 last time out with the other five all now stepping two levels from Class 4, which makes life tougher for the LTO winner/placers Silver Samurai and Under The Twilight, but they are at least running well.

Mokaatil is the only one of the eight yet to win at today's trip, but in fairness he has yet to race over 7f, despite 67 previous outings. He's far better (7 from 37) over 5f than he is over 6f (2 from 30), so I think 7f might be a stretch for him especially from 2lbs out of the handicap, although he is the only previous course winner, having landed a Class 3 handicap over 5f just over a year ago.

All eight have been seen fairly recently with Mitrosonfire (9 days) and Priscilla's Wish (42 days) the quickest turned back out/longest rested, whilst Atrium is the sole headgear-wearer, sporting cheekpieces for the fourth race in a row, including a 7f win at Doncaster on his penultimate outing.

Instant Expert suggests that Azano might well be the weakest of the four market principals...

...and you'd not rush out to back him if that data was all you had to work with! His win record on good ground, at Class 2 and over 7f are frankly lamentable, but none of these scream Class 2 runner, so let's have a look at Class 3 form...

...which still isn't a good look for Azano! Priscilla's Wish is interesting here with a Class 3 win and a 6 from 18 record over today's trip. She was fourth at Newmarket last time out, but has two wins and a runner-up finish from seven starts this year. Atrium and Silver Samurai have the best records on good ground and the former has 3 wins from 7 over this trip.

The draw stats here over 7f at Sandown would suggest that the runners drawn in stalls 2 to 7 have an advantage over those drawn at the extremities...

...which might not be the best news for Silver Samurai in stall 1 and much might rest on how he gets away/involved here. Recently he has tended to race towards the back of the field, as have many of the field if truth be told...

...and if the above is anything to go by, Atrium might well be allowed to grab a soft early lead and dominate the race from the front and according to the pace/draw heat map, he's the best placed of all here, if he leads from a relatively high draw...

Summary

Of the quartet that I (and the early market) thought be the ones to focus on, Silver Samurai & Azano had poor scores on Instant Expert and all bar Azano look like being unsuited by being held up. Azano looks like being able to dictate the pace of the contest here and that should ensure that he makes the frame, but he wouldn't be an obvious winner based on past form under these conditions and at odds ranging from 7/2 to 9/2, I don't think there's much value in either of the four 'originals'.

I'll not be backing any of these to win, but if I was to play here, I might just have a small (and I mean small) E/W flutter on Priscilla's Wish. She has been held up in her last two outings but has also been known to race more prominently, she's not too badly drawn and certainly gets the trip. I won't be risking much money, but at 10/1, she could well be the E/W answer.

Good Luck!

Racing Insights, Thursday 14/09/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.25 Epsom
  • 3.35 Doncaster
  • 4.50 Naas
  • 5.00 Ffos Las
  • 5.35 Ffos Las

...and with an £82k, Class 1 contest on the free list, it would be remiss of me not to cover the Betfred Park Hill Fillies Stakes aka the 3.35 Doncaster. It's a 10-runner, Group 2 flat contest for fillies and mares aged 3 or over and they'll tackle a left-handed 1m6½f on good to soft/soft ground. Here's the card...

On results alone, Night Sparkle brings the best set of recent figures to the table, having won her last three on the Flat (last four overall), but she's the only class mover here, as she steps up from Class 3 for her debut for Andrew Balding's yard. Elsewhere, Sumo Sam made all to land the Gr2 Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood over 1m6f on heavy ground, whilst Ching Shih, Divine Jewel and One Evening were all Class 1 runners-up with Crack of Light also making the frame on her last run. Those four ran at G3, Listed, Listed & Listed class respectively.

We've mentioned that Night Sparkle is up in class for her yard debut already, but I should add that Shamwari wears cheekpieces for the first time and she receives a useful 10lb weight allowance as one of five three year olds in the race, along with Boogie Woogie, Crack of Light, Lmay and Sumo Sam, although the latter bears a 3lb penalty for that excellent win six weeks ago, but still gets 7lbs from most of the field.

That win was 40 days ago and whilst some of the others appear to have been off track longer, those days since last run don't include overseas contests. If we include them, then Sumo Sam's 40-day rest is the longest of the ten runners, whilst Divine Jewel is the quickest back out, 12 days after a runner-up finish at Chester and her record over similar trips to this one is the best on offer today, according to Instant Expert...

In fairness, many of these are untried/untested at this longer trip, but both Night Sparkle and Sumo Sam have picked up wins under similar circumstances, whilst the place data looks like this...

...where only Lmay and possibly Golden Lyra look a little out of their depth/comfort zones. Lmay will be drawn widest of all ten runners, but I'm not convinced that the draw should play too big a role in a race of around a mile and three quarters, but we should always check the data, just in case...

...which is interesting. I'd not expected such a disparity from those drawn lowest, but the above is backed up by the PRB3 figures, which would appear to favour those drawn 4 or higher...

...although the places stats are less conclusive in that direction...

...whilst if we home in on the actual trip of this race, we're then told that front-runners haven't fared too well either...

...which doesn't bode well for the likes of Night Sparkle and/or Boogie Woogie if their recent outings are anything to go by...

...but if truth be told, not many of this field come out well on the pace/draw combo...

Those in the centre do seem to have the best of it, but only Golden Lyra, Boogie Woogie and Nighy Sparkle look out of it.

Summary

For a race of this 'quality' (although I suspect this is a poor renewal), we've not had much help from the data and it may well revert back to form and that unquantifable element : 'gut feeling' and my gut feeling here is that Sumo Sam, One Evening and Ching Shih would be the ones most likely to succeed.

The bookies agree to an extent, as that trio are 4/1, 7/1 and 15/2 respectively and with some firms paying four places, I'd also be interested in Crack of Light at 12/1, but it's not a race that I'll investing much time or money in/on.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 13/09/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.40 Bath
  • 2.05 Carlisle
  • 3.05 Tramore
  • 4.10 Uttoxeter
  • 4.40 Punchestown
  • 7.45 Southwell

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated just one runner and that's based on course 5-year handicap form...

The highest rated of the UK races above is the sole jumps contest, so we're off to Staffordshire for the 4.10 Uttoxeter, an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed two miles on good to soft/soft ground...

Enthused won last time out and has two wins and four places from his last six outings, whilst Simply Red has three wins and two places from her last seven, including winning her last two races. Prince Escalus is 2 from 7 and Call Me Rocky is 2 from 4, but Hurricane Ali and Boom Boom Boom are winless in their last eight and seven respectively.

Most of the field have raced in the last 6-38 days, but Rathmacknee and top-weight Prince Escalus might be excused forneeding the run after breaks of 138 & 164 days, although the latter has finished 1314 after breaks of 110-272 days!

Prince Escalus is one of just two runners not stepping up in class today, Boom Boom Boom being the other and whilst half of the field are up from Class 3, LTO winners Simply Red and Enthused are up two classes.

The latter is however one of two (along with Hurricane Ali) to have already scored over course and distance, whilst all bar Rathmacknee (yard debut today) and Boom Boom Boom have won over a similar trip elsewhere and those course/distance wins are shown below in Instant Expert below, but it's hardly an inspiring graphic...

There has been some limited success on this going, but the four to have tackled Class 2 racing are a combined 0 from 12. We knew we had two course winners and four to have prevailed over this trip. With regards to Class, it might be worth pointing out that four of these have won at Class 3; Glorious Zoff (1 from 5), Hurricane Ali (2/12), Prince Escalus (4/8) and Rathmacknee (1/4), with the Prince having the best record.

The place stats to go with the above graphic look like this...

...where again Prince Escalus looks good at Class 3, but the likes of Boom Boom Boom, Call Me Rocky and Rathmacknee look very vulnerable and I'd probably discount them at this point.

The pace data for similar past races suggests that horses willing to set the pace are rewarded more often than those who don't...

...which would, when looking at the field's more recent efforts, seem to be another tick against the name of Prince Escalus...

...whilst just over the last two races, we end up with the Prince and the two form horses...

...and I think that these are the trio I'd want to be focusing on for this one.

Summary

The likelihood is that despite stepping up two classes, Simply Red & Enthused are likely to be too good for Prince Escalus.

He does go well after a break, but it's always a worry when a horse might need a run. Off a mark on 132, he's some 10lbs higher than his last hurdles win, but his last two wins over fences were off 133 & 134, so this mark isn't beyond him. I'm not sure that he can beat the other two, but at 10/1, I'd be happy to back him each way.

The early market can't split the other pair as 3/1 jt favs and there probably won't be much between them, but if pushed for a winner, I'd probably just side with the course and distance winner Enthused.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 12/09/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...where all those rated at 10 or higher are at least worth a second glance and we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 1.40 Leicester
  • 4.15 Catterick
  • 5.15 Laytown
  • 5.25 Galway
  • 7.25 Galway

I do, where possible, try to 'marry up' the daily free feature with the free racecard list and that's actually possible today, as 11-rated on The Shortlist Vadamiah runs in the 4.15 Catterick (as does 9-rated Texas Man of course), a 9-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good/good to soft ground...

Despite the disparity on the SR figures, this looks a tight, competitive affair, where our feature horse Vadamiah (one of two females in the race) carries top weight, but she does drop three classes here after finishing well down the field (although only 3.5 lengths down) in a £50k Class 2 handicap at the Ebor meeting three weeks ago. Fellow female Havagomecca drops down one class here, as do Castin and Albegone.

Birkenhead steps up a class after back to back runner-up finishes, a pair of results matched by Murbih and with no LTO winners in the field, these two bring the best form to the table, but Papa Don't Preach, Murbih and Jojo Rabbit are winless in 8, 13 and 12 respectively and all three have pretty dismal win records on turf.

Castan is the sole 3 yr old in the field and gets a 1lb allowance for that and he's one of five previous course and distance winners here. All nine have won at least once at this trip and only Havagomecca, Papa Don't Preach, Murbih and Jojo Rabbit have yet to win here at Catterick. Mind you, that last trio who are on long losing runs are 0 from 10, 0 from 13 and 1 from 17 respectively on the Flat, so a win here would be a surprise!

No fitness issues with them all having raced in the last month or so, but Murbih did run on Saturday and although it's a short turnaround, that was his best effort for some time. Instant Expert highlights the poor Flat win records of this trio and also shows why Vadamiah and Texas Man are on The Shortlist...

There's really not a great deal to write home about there with possibly only the two shortlisted runners and Castan emerging with much credit and even the latter has struggled on the going. When i said this might be tight/competitive, I didn't actually say that it was a decent quality, though! Perhaps the place stats will show some of these in a better light...

Well, they say that Castan is better on the going than at first suggested, but the others who looked best on the win stats haven't really enhanced their positions and have been caught up by some of the others. I've seen enough about Papa Don't Preach and Jojo Rabbit to discount them from my thoughts now, though. They're both drawn middle to high here in a race that doesn't (in my opinion) display any real bias or advantage from a stalls positioning...

..but it's one where the emphasis is clearly on early speed as this illustrates only too well...

...and with this field's recent efforts looking like this...

...you'd have to think that Vadamiah would have an excellent chance of grabbing the lead and therefore running on for at least a place and I think if we just look at the field's last two outings we'll get a more realistic view of how they might break...

Summary

It's probably easier if I start by saying who I don't really fancy here! I already ruled out Papa Don't Preach and Jojo Rabbit at an early point and I think that pace will be the undoing for Texas Man and Havagomecca's chances of landing this and that's probably the same for Birkenhead. He's in good nick, but doesn't win often enough and with more than half the field setting off quicker than him, a place is his best shot.

Of the five ahead of him, none are really prolific, but Vadamiah loves it here. Murbih doesn't win on grass and I think Castan is the most interesting of all of them. He may only be 2 from 12 on Turf, but has made the frame seven times, all his best runs have been at this trip and the going will suit him. He has one win and one place from three efforts over course and distance and at 10/1 looks a decent E/W punt for me.

As for a winner? Stick a pin in the card! If pushed Vadamiah's course record and his all-out pace profile probably tip the balance his way, but is he a 10/3 shot here? I'd expected double that, so I'll leave the win bet alone on value, but I expect him to go well.

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