We offer an extensive range of daily free horse racing tips, all of which can be found here.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 16/08/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.20 Salisbury
  • 3.35 Yarmouth
  • 4.20 Beverley
  • 5.25 Beverley
  • 6.30 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have only highlighted the following two yards in good recent form...

14-day form...

30-day form...

Of the nine races highlighted above the first of the free cards is for a Listed event, but I'm not wild about lightly raced 2yr olds, so next best is actually the 4.20 Beverley, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 7½f on good to firm ground...

Reputation is considerably older than the rest of the field, but he is our sole LTO winner here, yet he might need the run after a break of almost a year. Autumn Festival, Metahorse, Craven and Ring of Gold all had top three finishes with the latter denoted as a fast finisher : perhaps he needs to get going sooner!

The top three in the weights (Autumn Festival, Mudamer and On The River) all drop down from a recent run at Class 3 and Mudamer is the only one of the three yet to win over course and distance. In fact none of the rest of the field have achieved this, but Beltane has at least woin here at Beverley over 1m½f back in June, two starts ago.

We know that Reputation has been away for a good while, but apart from Ron O's 103-day absence, the rest of the runners here have all raced in the last six weeks.

Instant Expert says that a few of these are shy of wins under expected conditions...

...although they do seem to have the knack of making the frame...

From those numbers above, I'd be a little concerned about Beltane's inability at Class 4 and the fact that Satin Snake just doesn't win on turf. Ron O is some 18lbs higher than his last/only turf win, but he has won the A/W recently off just 2lbs lower than today, whilst Craven would probably prefer the ground to be closer to good than it is to firm. Top weight Autumn Festival looks the one to beat on those figures above, but stall 11 of 11 might not be helpful, let's check...

The draw stats are actually a little misleading here, as if we split the field into thirds ie low, mid and high draw, then a high draw looks favourable...

...but stall by stall suggests that whilst stalls 9 & 10 have done well, those drawn 11 or 12 have struggled...

...and the PRB data suggests a lower draw is better...

I'm going to mark that as inconclusive and focus upon the pace data from those races above, as I've got it in my head that this is where the race will be won or lost and those races above have gone as follows...

...with front-running horses definitely the ones to be on and this focus on pace rather than draw is also reflected in the pace/draw heat map...

So, who will lead? Well, we don't actually know, but by looking at how the field have approached their most recent outings...

...you'd probably want to be focusing on the upper half of that table.

Summary

So, we're looking for those in the upper half of the pace chart who should enjoy conditions here and who also come here in some semblance of reasonable form.

Beltane looks like the pace-maker, he gets good to firm ground and has two wins and two places from his last five runs, so plenty of positives there. he hasn't got a great record at Class 4, but that's probably why he's 13/2 from Bet365 (the only book open at 3.50pm Tuesday), but he'd be in my top three for this one, as would On The River, who'll also be up with the pace.

He has won four of his last seven and won here over course and distance two starts ago. He's good at Class 4 and at this venue, he's down in class but would probably prefer the ground to be softer. The doubts over the ground are again reflected in his price, as he too is priced at 13/2 in the early market.

My final one for the frame is probably top weight Autumn Festival, he's also likely to be up with the pace, scored really well on Instant Expert (especially for a place) and is 2lbs lower than his last winning mark. He has made the frame in two of his last three starts, both at Class 3; he's down in class here and a pound lighter than LTO and at 8/1 would be my E/W play.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 15/08/23

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...and as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 4.00 Nottingham
  • 4.30 Nottingham
  • 7.00 Newcastle
  • 7.15 Chelmsford

Mayfair Gold has green for going, class, course and distance and she runs on one of our free races, so let's see how she might fare in the 7.15 Chelmsford, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ fillies' A/W handicap over a left handed 1m2f on standard polytrack...

Moonspirit won on just her second outing LTO, whilst Mayfair Gold and Hey Lyla both finished second, but none of their other rivals made the frame. After that recent win, Moonspirit now makes a handicap debut, as does fellow 3 yr old Rosa Chinensis who drops back to Class 5 after one run at Class 2.

In fact only the top four on the card are older than 3 yrs old, which means they're disadvantaged here to the tune of some 8lbs, but all of them bar Tahasun do at least take a drop in class here. Smiling Sunflower wears blinkers for the first time here and featured runner Mayfair Gold is hooded for a second time.

Top weight Croachill has won over a similar trip at Doncaster, whilst both Tahasun and Mayfair Gold are former course and distance winners with the latter also a runner-up over track and trip last time out.

That was three weeks ago and most of this field have had at least one run in the last 2.5 to 6.5 weeks, aside from bottom weight Creme Chantilly, who now returns from an 11-week rest following a poor run (last of 11, 12 lengths down) at Leicester, although she did actually won here over a mile on her second start back in October 2022.

That course win can be seen here on Instant Expert, of course...

My main take-away from those graphics above are that whilst this isn't a great race, it could well be a competitive affair and that both Smiling Sunflower and Valkyrian look weak. I'm happy to 'eliminate them from my enquiries' as we continue our analysis. As you'd expect from her position on The Shortlist, Mayfair Gold scores well here.

She is, however, drawn widest of all, so we'll need to consult the Geegeez Draw Analyser to see whether stall 10 is likely to be a help or a hindrance or if it really shouldn't matter...

...and the inference from the above is that the further away from stall 1 a horse is drawn, the progressively worse the chances of winning become, which should be great news for Creme Chantilly, but not good at all for Mayfair Gold. However, closer inspection of the stall by stall data from those races...

...shows that horses drawn higher than stall nine in those races won 20 of 185 races at a rate of 10.81%, which is on par or better with most of the other stalls, although the three lowest drawn horses have won most often overall at a rate of 12.33%. Yet the fact that stall 10 can outperform stall 3 suggests that Chelmsford races are decided by race tactics aka pace more often than they are decided by the draw, especially over trips longer than a mile and our Pace Analyser says that those races above have been won as follows...

Leaders win and place most often, prominent runners win almost as often as leaders and win more often than mid-division/hold-up runners combined, so form a win perspective we want a horse keen to get on with things, whilst for the places, we could do with avoiding runners who tend to be held-up like the already discarded Valkyrian. This is, of course, based on how the field has run in their last few races...

Summary

Moonspirit, Mayfair Gold and Hey Lyla bring the best form to the table and Mayfair Gold scored best on Instant Expert. I wasn't too concerned/interested in the draw, but the pace stats hand the initiative to Moonspirit and whilst there's probably not going to be much between them, I think she'll just have too much for Mayfair Gold.

There were no odds available at 4.25pm Monday, so I'll have to check back later, but I suspect the pick will be around the 9/4 mark which might not offer too much value. Tissue prices about Mayfair Gold suggest that she could be around 11/2, which might actually be worth a small stakes bet; I think she has more chance than 11/2.

Hey Lyla won't be much longer than Mayfair Gold in the betting and that's not long enough for me to have and E/W bet (I like to bet E/W at 8's or longer generally), but if you wanted a bit of a punt based on trust/faith more than anything else, then Creme Chantilly might be better than double-digit odds, especially if she gets away well.

Racing Insights, Monday 14/08/23

/in /by

Sorry for the extremely late edition today, I'm up at my caravan near the Lakes and we've had power issues during Sunday and this morning, so I've been trying to put something together without much success. The power is now (10.00am) is currently back on, but we don't know for how long, so I'm going to have to be quick!

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 6.10 Hamilton
  • 7.30 Windsor
  • 7.50 Ballinrobe
  • 8.20 Ballinrobe

The second of the two UK free races looks marginally better than the other, but it's not a great race that awaits us in the 7.30 Windsor, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo flat handicap over 1m3½f  around the figure of eight on good/good to firm ground...

Portoro won last time out and Goblet of Fire seeks to complete a hat-trick today. Fullforward has won just once in fifteen starts with three further places, whilst the other four runners are winless in a combined twenty races, where they have made the frame on just two occasions between them!

Twoforthegutter, Irezumi, Amma Aurelia and Anticipating all take a drop in class here with the latter pair both making a handicap debut three weeks after their last outing when well beaten in the same 1m2f maiden contest here at Windsor.

Portoro won on handicap debut (1m2f, Salisbury) last time out a month ago and now has a second handicap run, but the first iuting for his new yard. Goblet of Fire has been off the track the longest, but he last ran 33 days ago, so there shouldn't be any fitness issues around.

None of the group have won at either track nor distance, although Anna Aureila did make the frame in one of her three runs here (all her three career runs have been here!). The handicapper only rates this field with a 5lb spread from top to bottom and here are the (scarce) Instant Expert stats...

Not much to go on admittedly, but another tick for hat-trick seeking Goblet of Fire with Portoro also of interest, but he'll find it tougher here raised 13lbs for a 9 length win on handicap debut. Elsewhere not much to talk about, but Fullforward has made the frame in 3 of 7 over a similar trip, but is still 5lbs higher than his sole win nine races and ten months ago, but he was second at Lingfield last time out off today's mark. No Diggity was fourth, 2.5 lengths further back, that day and he was a winner over 1m4f at Brighton last Thursday.

Over a trip this long with both left and right handed bends, the draw really shouldn't be a factor here and although at first glance, the stats would suggest low draws fare badly here...

...that data is somewhat skewed by an inexplicably poor set of results from stall 1, which is where Irezumi will now find himself after the two withdrawals, but I doubt that's likely to make or break his race, whereas the pace might!

Pace/tempo is massively important here at Windsor, as this track tends to suit those willing to get on with things early and those 110+ races are no exception...

That data says you can make the frame from anywhere, but for a better chance of leading you need to be prominent or leading, which is a positive for Fullforward, based on how the field have approached their last few outings...

Summary

I think the two LTO winners, Goblet of Fire and Portoro are the best two horses here and bring the best form to the table. Their rivals bring no winning form with them and I see little reason why one of them would be the winner here. Of the two 'form' horses, Goblet of Fire is in the better form and has a better pace profile. He's 'only' up 6lbs for his win with Portoro up almost a stone, so it's Goblet of Fire for me.

We're not getting rich at 11/4, but it seems a fair price to me for a runner who looks best suited. Portoro might be undone by the pace and with most firms still paying three places, the front-running Fastforward might be a viable E/W option at 8/1, especially if he's afforded a soft lead.

Apologies again for the late posting, hopefully it was worth the wait!

Racing Insights, Saturday 12/08/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...but they have only generated the following runners for me to look at...

...although you can't say this combo isn't hot right now! Thankfully, as always, we also have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 2.30 Newmarket
  • 3.00 Haydock
  • 3.40 Newmarket
  • 4.55 Kilbeggan
  • 6.45 Lingfield
  • 7.55 Kilbeggan

...and although it would now make perfect sense to look at Sleven in the 2.30 Newmarket, I'm not that into nursery races if truth be told, so I'm going to have a crack at one of the two Group 3 races above, the Rose of Lancaster Stakes. On your racecards, it's the 3.00 Haydock, a 7-runner, Group 3 flat contest for runners aged 3 and over. The trip is a left-handed 1m2½f on good ground and here's how they'll line up...

All seven raced in Class 1 company last time out in the past eight weeks and all bar King of Conquest have won over a similar trip to this one. Phantom Flight landed a 1m Novice event here on just his third outing back in May 2022, but that makes him the only previous Haydock winner, although Savvy Victory is the only other to have been here before and he was 3rd of 8 in a similar 1m Novice event back in September 2021.

King of Conquest won three on the bounce before finishing 6th in the Wolferton at Ascot and now wears cheekpieces for the first time, whilst it's a yard debut for El Drama who has moved from Roger Varian since his last run. Al Aasy, Savvy Victory and Midnight Mile all won last time out and Al Aasy is two from three whilst Midnight Mile is three from five. Classic Causeway has been last of six and sixth of eight on his two UK starts and although a decent performer in the USA, has now lost nine on the bounce, whilst El Drama is winless in seven and this pair are probably the weakest in the field.

Midnight Mile is the sole filly in the contest, as well as being the only 3 yr old and she receives a very handy 11lbs weight allowance, which should give her a really chance of continuing her fine form she showed at York recently and she scores pretty well on Instant Expert, but not as good as former group 1 runner-up Al Aasy...

...who looks to have ideal conditions ahead of him. El Drama, Phantom Flight and Savvy Victory are a combined 2 from 21 in Class 1 races and I'm not convinced any of them will turn that stat into 3 from 24 here.

The draw stats for this kind of race have suggested those further away from the rail have had the best of it...

...which isn't the best news for Phantom Flight and Al Aasy, but none of these would be out of it purely on the draw, as long as they were up with (or even set) the pace, as those races above have gone like this...

Sadly, there's very little early pace in the race and the outsider Classic Causeway is likely to be allowed a free run in the safe knowledge he's probably not good enough to see the job out...

Behind the leader, the pace scores are much of a muchness with likely favourite Al Aasy having to come past everyone if he wants to win.

Summary

Al Aasy is the 'best' horse in the race and has conditions to suit, but isn't particularly well favoured by pace or draw. That said, Classic Causeway aside, there's not much danger of him being cut adrift early on and his class should see him through. Whether 15/8 represents any value, who knows? I suspect that's about right here.

But, if you're not backing the fav, where are we going? Well, not Classic Causeway or El Drama on form, nor El Drama, Phantom Flight and Savvy Victory on Class 1 results, which leaves us with the 3/1 King of Conquest and the 6/1 Midnight Mile. The former was in great form before finishing sixth in the Wolferton, whilst the latter seemed to have plenty in hand when landing a Listed race by 2.5 lengths at York recently.

I suspect there'll be little between this pair and you could go either way, but at 6/1 with the 11lbs weight allowance, Midnight Mile is my marginal pick as main danger to Al Aasy. Some firms are paying three places here and if she drifts any, she could be a nice E/W prospect.

Racing Insights, Friday 11/08/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded an interesting pair of qualifiers for this Friday...

...whilst I can also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 4.00 Brighton
  • 4.45 Tipperary
  • 5.10 Thirsk
  • 5.40 Haydock
  • 6.15 Haydock
  • 7.15 Wexford

...and I think I'll have a look at Equiano Springs from the H4C) report in the 8.20 Newmarket. He has won 4 of 6 races over 6f on the Rowley course and is 2 from 2 over this course and distance which is a straight 6f on the July course. This Class 4 race has eleven runners aged 3 and over and they'll be racing on good ground...

My initial thoughts were that this could be a shootout between the oldest runner, top weight and featured horse Equiano Springs and the bottom weight 3yo filly Lady Dreamer, but let's see.

Golden Duke and Equiano Springs both won last time out with the latter scoring here over track and trip at this class. Champagne Sarah is 112 in her last three and all bar Rathbone, Tolstoy and Dashing Dick have won at least one of their four outings, but this trio have lost their last 13, 18 and 16 races respectively and that alone is enough for me to say no, thank you!

Of the eight that remain, Prospering and fast-finisher Distinguished Lady both drop down a class for a race that will be the latter's debut for Darryll Holland, having left Alice Haynes' yard in the last month. LTO winner Golden Duke goes the other way and steps up from Class 5.

Ice Cool Harry makes just a second handicap appearance, as does Lady Dreamer and as 3 yr olds they receive a useful 4lbs weight allowance, as do Distinguished Lady, Champagne Sarah (first-time cheekpieces here) and Prospering.

The entire field have raced in the last six weeks already, but all eight under consideration have been rested for at least a fortnight. Equiano Springs is 2 from 2 over 6f on the July course and he's the only previous course winner, but all of his rivals bar Flying Secret have at least one win over today's trip.

Equiano Springs, as you'd expect, dominates Instant Expert...

...but there are some good shout on place form from the likes of Distinguished Lady, Golden Duke and Lady Dreamer...

...and at this stage, I'd expect them to be the biggest danger to the top weight runner, Equiano Springs, whose berthing in stall 2 looks quite favourable, according to our Draw Analyser...

...although there's not a huge deal in it and it's likely to be the pace approach that settles this one...

...with the pace stats and the pace/draw heatmap suggesting that if Equiano is up with the pace, he stands a great chance here yet again...

...so if he's averaging around 3.00 or even better, then he's surely the one to beat...

Summary

Featured horse Equiano Springs has to be the one to beat here and having gone through the analysis above, the only surprise to me is that he can be backed at 4/1. The tissues range from 7/2 to 9/2, so 4's is about right, although I see him as a 3/1 or even shorter bet, so I'm on.

Lady Dreamer is 6/1 second favourite and she's probably right to be there, but I think Champagne Sarah is very interesting at an eachway-backable 8/1. The pace might do away with Distinguished Lady's chances, but if the race falls apart then her 14/1 odds might begin to look very big indeed.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 10/08/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.50 Yarmouth
  • 4.00 Brighton
  • 4.45 Nottingham
  • 6.15 Sandown
  • 7.00 Chepstow
  • 8.05 Sligo

...the best of which (on paper) would appear to be race 11 of the Racing League aka the 7.00 Chepstow, an 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on soft ground...

Gordon Grey is a four-race maiden, but came close to getting off the mark on his handicap debut (2nd crack today) last time out and Feel The Need has failed to win any of his last eight starts after scoring on just his second outing. The other six runners here have at least one win from their last five efforts with Totnes, Miss Dolly Rocker (hcp debut here) and bottom weight I Still Have Faith all winning last time out; the latter actually comes here on a hat-trick whilst Totnes is 3 from 7.

She's Hot is the only runner to have raced at Class 3 last time around, as Shahbaz, Totnes, Feel The Need and Old Smoke are all up from Class 4, whilst Gordon Greym Miss Dolly Rocker And I Still Have Faith are up two classes.

It's a handicap debut for Miss Dolly Rocker and a 2nd handicap run for Gordon Grey, of course, whilst Feel The Need wears a hood for the first time. None of these have been away from the track for much more than a month, so we should have no rustiness, She's Hot is turned back out the quickest, but even she will have had nine days rest.

None of the field have won (or even ran) here at Chepstow before, but Totnes, Miss Dolly Rocker and I Still Have Faith have all won over today's trip, even if Totnes did it on the A/W.

Sadly, our free feature, Instant Expert, doesn't have much relevant data, but this is what we do have under expected conditions...

None of the field have won at this grade before, so the rise in class most face might not be too relevant here and I think we might get a better picture if we look at their records in a lower grade...

...where Totnes looks strong albeit on A/W form. Shahbaz hasn't won any of his last four, but remains 5lbs above his last winning mark, although he was a runner-up only beaten by a neck off this mark in his last race. Mind you, he won't have Frankie Dettori driving him home today, which makes life tougher. Gordon Grey, however, is eased 3lbs despite only going down late by three quarters of a length a fortnight ago, which might give him a chance here. He's drawn relatively low in stall 3, but it would appear that stall 5 and higher is the place to be...

...with those races above tending to be a bit of a struggle for hold-up horses...

...and that doesn't bode well for a few of this field, especially Feel The Need and I Still Have Faith, if their past four outings are anything to go by...

...making our pace/draw heat map looks like this...

Summary

On form, it was Totnes, Miss Dolly Rocker, and I Still Have Faith who appeared to be the pick of the pack, Totnes, I Still Have Faith and possibly She's Hot were the takeaways from Instant Expert. I Still Have Faith, Miss Dolly Rocker, Shahbaz and She's Hot seem best favoured by the draw, whilst the pace/draw heat map looked like better news for Miss Dolly Rocker, Shahbaz and She's Hot.

As is often the case with the totting-up procedure, you get the same names mentioned over and over and five horses are listed above, so I'm going to rule Feel The Need, Gordon Grey and Old Smoke out of the running. The issue now is that any of the five remaining could go on and win, but there's no stand-out candidate.

The 4pm market had my five as follows...

...and the most obvious bet for me would be to back She's Hot on an Each Way basis. She's back up in trip (was a runner-up the last time she tackled 1m2f) and she's not stepping up in class.

Shahbaz looks short at 3/1 with only 1 win in 10, but a 60% place strike rate, he's more of a placer than a winner for me. Totnes is 3 from 4 on the A/W, but his Flat form reads 8433 (placed just once).

I Still Have Faith could be the one to back as the winner, he's in great form, gets weight all round, has a good jockey on board, is drawn higher enough, but might need to press on sooner, whilst Miss Dolly Rocker might also surprise one or two here. She has been more consistent than spectacular, but won last time out on soft ground, gets the trip and is drawn in stall 6. She might get an easy lead and if that happens, she's not a bad option for the places, if I could get better than 13/2.

Shortly after publishing the post, 9/1 became available about Miss Dolly Rocker, so a small E/W bet is an option.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 09/08/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.20 Pontefract
  • 3.30 Brighton
  • 3.50 Pontefract
  • 6.40 Sligo
  • 7.50 Yarmouth

...whilst my own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following...

...and the 'best' of those races above appears to be the stayers' handicap at Ponty, the 3.50 Pontefract. it's an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left handed 2m1 on good ground...

None of trhese even managed to make the frame last time out, which is a little disconcerting, but all bar Ashington have won at least once in their last five starts and he does at least drop down a level here, whilst the bottom two on the card, Giovanni Change and Ironopolis are both down two classes.

Ironopolis is also the sole 3yo in the field, so he'll get a 13lb weight allowance here, but he'll probably need it as I see him as the weakest runner in the field. We've no new equipment being used and no yard movements and all of them have raced in the last 11-45 days, so we should have no fitness issues either.

Only Yorkindness and Flint Hill have won over this trip before and they've done it here at Pontefract, whilst Champagne City (2m2f), Carrigillihy (1m4f) and Giovanni Change (2m5½f) have also all won at this venue.

Instant Expert suggests that Champagne City should have conditions to suit, but that Carrigillihy is the track specialist...

...but his record at class 4 looks almost as poor as Flint Hill's. The latter also hasn't fared well on good ground with El Borracho also having issues winning on good.

The draw stats would initially tend to suggest that those drawn lowest have an advantage, but (i) it's a very small sample size, (ii) the data is skewed by stall 1 winning nearly a third of the races in the sample and (iii) I'm really not convinced the draw can make you lose an 8-runner race over 2m1f, but here's the data anyway...

...and I suspect that pace might have a bigger bearing on the result. That small sample of races above have been won as follows...

...suggesting those racing further forward have just put targets on their backs and that the hold-up horses have been left with too much to do, so it we could get a runner with an average pace score around the 2.00 mark, we might have something, so so let's check the field's most recent outings...

...which doesn't really clarify the issue too much, but if we ignore Carrigillihy's last effort where he led and faded badly, he does tend to run to that 2.00/mid-division position.

Summary

Carrigillihy's record around this track is excellent and he's probably got the ideal pace profile to win here again, but he's a 5/2 favourite who has a career record of 1 win and 1 place from 14 attempts at Class 4. He's also 0 from 7 beyond his preferred trip of 1m4f (where he is 5 from 17) and is up in trip here.

I suspect he's going to be there or thereabouts and could well win, but 5/2 is way too short for my liking. I did actually like El Borracho initially, but he's likely to do too much too soon and whilst he could be good for a place, 5/1 isn't E/W territory for me. The one who might well outrun his odds and make the frame as an E/W possible is the 11/1 outsider Champagne City. Conditions look ideal for him and he's only 2lbs higher than when winning here over 2m2f back in April.

I won't be digging too deeply into my pockets for the bet, but I'd hope for a decent effort from him.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 08/08/23

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with one of more obvious immediate interest than the other, whilst as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 4.35 Catterick
  • 6.00 Roscommon
  • 6.30 Roscommon
  • 8.20 Chelmsford

...from which I think I'll check out Temper trap in the 6.10 Ripon, as Sea Appeal looks mighty short in a 4-runner contest! The 6.10 Ripon is a 7-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ flat handicap for apprentice jockeys over a right-handed mile on soft ground...

Featured horse Temper Trap is second widest drawn and top weight of the eight runners and after winning this race last year is the only course and distance winner in the field. None of the others have won at Ripon before, but all bar Extinction (2nd run in a handicap today), Antagonize and Jewel of Kabeir have all won over today's trip elsewhere.

How Bizarre and fast finisher Chagall both come here off the back of wins, whilst Temper Trap comes in search of a quick-fire hat-trick inside 12 days, for which he's penalised 5lbs. Of the other four runners, only Bay Dream Beleiver has win in his most recent form line.

None of the field should be too rusty, as Grangeclare View's 8-week break is the longest any of these have been off the track since their last run and Temper Trap won at Hamilton as recently as Saturday evening! Extinction, Grangeclare View and Bay Dream believer all drop a class, which is useful especially for the latter who was a runner-up last time out.

It's an apprentice jockeys' race with five of the riders using claims of 3 to 10lbs, but both Temper Trap and Chagall will be ridden by non-claimers with a bit more experience, which might be vital here.

Temper Trap comes from The Shortlist, so you'd be well within your rights to expect him to score well on Instant Expert...

...and he certainly doesn't disappoint. He looks head and shoulders above the field here, despite a 5lb rise in weight. Mind you Chagall is some 10lbs higher than his last flat win almost three years ago, although he is only 3lbs higher than when winning on the A/W at Lingfield three weeks ago and he's got good place stats, especially on soft ground as does How Bizarre whose place form looks solid if unspectacular, although it's Antagonize's place numbers that look second best to Temper Trap.

One of the form horses, Bay Dream Believer has bagged stall number 1, whilst our featured runner, Temper Trap is out in box 7 and if previous similar past contests are anything to go by, then the former might have an advantage over the latter...

...as the lower half of the draw seems to have much better results. The above races tended to be won by those runners racing most prominently with prominent/leaders winning 50% more often than mid-div/hold-up types, which based on the field's most recent efforts doesn't look such good news for Bay Dream Believer...

Summary

It's not a great race, really, but it's difficult to look beyond Temper Trap. The problem is, that he looks an obvious pick and the bookies are onto it and he's 7/4 across the board. I think he wins this again here, but I'm not going gung-ho at those odds, I thought he might have been a bit longer.

Chagall (9/2), Bay Dream Believer (5/1) and How Bizarre (11/2) all come here in good nick, but fall down in different areas and I wouldn't see any of them beating the fav. All three are too short for an E/W punt, but you can get 17/2 about Antagonize and if he runs like he did last time out, then he could well make the frame if the form horses don't fire.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 07/08/23

/in /by

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.33 Cork
  • 4.53 Cork
  • 5.20 Ayr
  • 5.28 Cork
  • 7.30 Windsor

Of the two UK races above, I suspect the last race on the list will depend more on pace than the other and with tricky underfoot conditions expected, the 7.30 Windsor might well be an interesting contest. It's a 15-runner (more than I'm generally comfortable with!), Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over straight 6f on heavy ground...

As there are far more runners than I want to deal with, I'm going to be quite brutal and quickly eliminate runners, based initially on PACE and the INSTANT EXPERT data, as this is how heavy groiund races at Windsor at 5f to 7f have panned out...

.with our field's last four runs looking like this...

Their soft to heavy ground handicap stats look like this...

And whilst I'm aware of the obvious risk of overlooking a possible bet, I'm not even considering those with two or more hold-up runs in their last four outings and I'm removing Cuban Breeze for his soft/heavy ground form, making my new racecard look like this...

Lequinto, Indian Creak and Count Otto all won last time out with the latter coming here on a hat-trick, but Antiphon and Crazy Luck are both on losing runs of 6 and 9 races.

All bar Lethal Nymph and Sterling Knight are stepping up in class with Lequinto, Count Otto and The Cruising Lord up two classes with Lequinto wearing first time blinkers.

All nine have won over today's trip before with all bar Lethal Nymph, Crazy Luck and The Cruising Lord having scored over course and distance. We've no 3 yr olds here, so no age-related weight allowances to consider and all of them have raced in the last six weeks with Sterling Knight having rested for just two days and Crazy Luck for six.

Instant Expert says...

...that Count Otto might well struggle at Class 2 and hasn't fared particularly well here at Windsor and that he and The Cruising Lord look the weakest on the above stats. And as it's my aim to quickly decimate the field into a small number of possible E/W bets, I'm removing both from my calculations now. This still leaves me with seven runners strung across the track in stalls, 1, 3, 4, 7, 11, 13, 14 and over a straight 6f, you'd be forgiven for think that there shouldn't be much advantage to the draw, but it's not quite the case here as those drawn 6 and above do seem to have better results...

...which isn't particularly good news for Lequinto, Lethal Nymph and/or Antiphon, but their fate might not yet be sealed, they might still be in with a shout as we revisit the pace data from those 5-6f Windsor races used for the draw stats...

...where we're looking for those with the highest average pace score from this bunch...

Anything below 2.75 probably isn't going to be advanced enough here, especially when I've already discarded this trio...

...so it's goodbye to Lequinto and Crazy Luck here.

Summary

I have very quickly reduced the field to four runners that I may (or may not) now fancy to back win or E/W for the four places available from the bookies, of whom only Hills had prices when I wrote the piece.

Antiphon is possibly better than the 16/1 ticket might suggest. he won here over 5f on soft ground in May off today's mark and was a runner-up over course and distance six weeks ago off the same mark and now has a 7lb claimer on board. Could well make the frame here.

Lethal Nymph was a runner-up over course and distance here last time out and has finished 112 in his last three runs at Class 2. he's unproven/untested on anything softer than good to soft, so there's an elemEnt of trust involved if you want to back him at 17/2. If he takes to the heavy ground, he'd be a good E/W chance too, but I think I'd want a bigger price on a horse trying these conditions for a first time.

Indian Creak won here over course and distance on soft ground back in May and won well at Epsom last time out, but is only raised a pound for that run. He made the frame on heavy ground at Thirsk in the race follOwing his C&D success and could go well again here. I do like his chances of a top four finish and whilst not exactly generous, 17/2 isn't a bad price.

Haymaker is probably the one I like best of the four. A central draw gives him the scope to go with whoever sets the pace, the underfoot conditions shouldn't bother him and he's got a top jockey on board. He's the current 11/2 favourite which looks a little mean/short, but if pushed to pick a winner, he'd be the one. Ideally he'd drift from that price and I could back him E/W.

Racing Insights, Saturday 05/08/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

...plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 2.05 Newmarket
  • 3.25 Thirsk
  • 3.35 Goodwood
  • 5.55 Galway
  • 6.45 Lingfield
  • 7.45 Lingfield

Once again the Goodwood contest has far too many (28!) runners for my liking, so let's head to North Yorkshire for the 3.25 Thirsk, a 10-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 7f on soft ground...

No LTO winners on show today and only top-weight Woven made the frame last time around. He did, however, win four starts ago and only The Turpinator, maywake and bottom weight Snash come here on a run of seven (or more!) consecutive defeats.

Snash is trained by Tim Easterby who has won this race for the last two years with last year's winner, Danzan also here to defend the crown under last year's winning jockey, which is interesting on Trainer/Jockey combo day!

Snash hasn't won for over a year now (9 races) and despite a 2 from 22 record on turf (yet 2/2 on AW), he's up in class here, whilst four of the top five in the weights (Heat of the Moment, Autumn Festival, Harswell Duke and The Turpinator) all drop down a grade.

Harswell Duke looks like he's making a debut for a new yard, but that's not the case, it's just a licence name modification from his last run 105 days ago, making him the one most likely to be a bit rusty. Heat of the Moment has been off for twelve weeks, but the remainder have all raced in the last two to five weeks or so.

Broken Spear and Snash are both former Thirsk winners over 5f and 6f respectively, whilst Snash's stablemate Danzan is the only course and distance winner, having won this race last year and also just over six weeks ago. Elsewhere, all bar Heat of the Moment, Harswell Duke and Snash have managed at least one win at this trip.

Instant Expert says that all bar Snash have had a run on soft ground already and that five of them have won on soft, whilst there are five (not all the same runners) previous Class 3 Flat winners on show. A few clicks of the mouse will also reveal a pair of former Class 2 successes for Autumn Festival and Harswell Duke...

My immediate concerns would be about Woven (class/trip), Broken Spear (going/class/trip), last year's winner Danzan (going/class/trip), Maywake (trip) and Snash (trip).  Some of this datat is a little surprising to me, as I had it in my head that Woven and Maywake were better than the above graphic might suggest.

None of the field are any more than 5lbs higher than their last winning mark, but The Turpinator and Snash are 2lbs and 11lbs lower than their last flat win. Autumn Festival looks well set on both going and distance and we know Danzan's best efforts have been over course and distance, but before I rule any of these in or out, I want to check the place stats...

...which pretty much backs up my thoughts that Woven and Maywake weren't as bad as they first looked, but without any green at all on the pace stats, it's time for me to cut Heat of the Moment, Broken Spear and Snash from the reckoning, leaving me with seven to consider as I turn my attention to the draw on this left-handed, soft ground 7f. Our Draw Analyser says that at this trip and a mile, the higher drawn horses have fared best...

...especially those drawn is stalls 7 or higher...

...which could bode well for Danzan, Razeyna and Woven in 7, 8 & 9. Those races above have been won most often by horses setting the pace and the further back a horse has run, the lower the success rate, although only hold-up horses have struggled to make the frame...

This represents a complete turn about for the highly-drawn Razeyna and Woven, as they're not usually ones to force the pace of a race, based on recent evidence...

...but it's another tick for last year's winner Danzan, despite him still being rated some 7lbs higher than last year. I'm not sure what happened to Maywake on his last outing, as his usual average pace score is around the 3.50 mark and I think he'll want to be close to the front here.

Summary

I don't think Danzan is the horse he was last year, but the data above keeps pushing him my way. I think the likes of Maywake, Woven and Razeyna are better horses than Danzan and I'm sure that at least one will beat last year's winner, but at 16/1 (only Hills were open at 4.30pm) Danzan might not be the worst E/W bet I've placed this week! I know we're making a leap of faith, but horse, trainer and jockey all go well here, so who knows?

As for a winner, I do like Maywake, Woven and Razeyna, but I fear the latter pair are going to get undone by their hold-up approach, despite having great draws, so it's Maywake at 9/2 for me, whilst it's not beyond the realms of possibilities that Autumn Festival might try to win this from the front and if I can get 10's or better, that could also be an E/W option.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 04/08/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded just two qualifiers...

...but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.00 Goodwood
  • 4.45 Goodwood
  • 5.10 Bangor
  • 6.20 Newmarket
  • 7.40 Galway
  • 8.05 Bath

Rhoscolyn from the H4C report goes in the first of our free races, but 20-runner affairs don't float my boat, so I'll swerve that one in favour of taking a look at a competitive looking sprint of reasonable quality up in Scotland, as I focus on the 8.20 Musselburgh, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good ground...

As ever, I approach a race thinking of the words my old maths teacher used to tell me when faced with a tricky problem ie look at the information you've already got in front of you. To do this I work my way across the racecard from left to right, ignoring the draw (for now!), starting with...

FORM : Never Dark won last time out and has two wins and a runner-up finish from his last four outings. Only Spoofing won this race last years and was a runner-up when last seen, but along with Looking For Lynda and Resilience, this trio are winless in at least six races (12, 7 and 10 runs to be precise)

CLASS : Only Spoofing and Jordan Electrics are the only two not moving in class today, as the top three in the weights (Ready Freddie Go, Look Out Louis & Looking For Lynda) all drop in from Class 2, whilst three others (Runninwild, Princess Karine and bottom weight Resilience) all step up from Class 4. LTO winner Never Dark actually raced at Class 5 and is up two grades here.

ANYTHING NEW/DIFFERENT : Looking For Lynda wears cheekpieces for the first time and Look Out Louis makes a second appearance sind having wind surgery.

COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : All nine have won at least once over today's trip with only Look Out Louis, Runninwild and Resilience yet to score over this course and distance. Mind you, only Resilience of the three has been here before, making the frame once in two defeats.

LAST RAN : The majority of the field should have no fitness issues with half a dozen of them having raced in the last 18-35 days, but Resilience is turned back out just six days after a really poor run in a lower grade at York. Runninwild has had a nine-week break since struggling at Catterick, whilst our sole LTO winner never Dark not only steps up two classes, he also returns from 7 months off and hasn't raced on turf for almost ten months!

WEIGHT : The handicapper rates top weight Ready Freddie Go as being some 19lbs better than bottom weight Resiliance and our sole 3 year old, Looking For Lynda, gets a 3lb weight allowance. Only Spoofing is rated 7lbs lower than when winning this race last year under today's jockey.

My next port of call is a check of the runners' past performances under similar conditions to this contest and I do this via INSTANT EXPERT...

And there's plenty to go at here too, so let's start with what I don't like! Never Dark looks weak at going/trip and is only 1 from 16 over 5f on ground with the word 'good' in the description. Only Spoofing has a poor record at Class 3, but did win this race last year and has won at a higher grade than this and I'm not a fan of Jordan Electrics' numbers here at Musselburgh or on good ground.

Runninwild will like the ground, but his best form is over 6f. Only Spoofing has seven wins on good ground and is 2 from 3 on this track and is 7lbs lower than last year's win. Ready Freddie Go's numbers aren't spectacular, but a line of amber shows potential and consistency.

I ignore the DRAW when going through the racecard, as I prefer to look at it at this point and previous races here over this trip haven't really shown much of a draw bias, according to our DRAW ANALYSER...

That's not a huge surprise, though, as there really shouldn't be any particular advantage in a straight dash, where the emphasis is surely on speed and tactics and if we then check our PACE ANALYSER to see how those races above have been won, again there are few surprises to be had...

So, we're more concerned about getting a prominent runner or a leader for place purposes with those setting the pace having the best win record. And we go about this by looking at how our runners have approached their most recent contests and if they run how they have done in these races...

...you'd much rather be with Ready Freddie Go and Only Spoofing above the likes of Jordan Electrics, who looks out of his depth here anyway.

Summary

Ready Freddie Go was third in this grade three starts ago, then won at Class 4 before another third placed finsh last time out. That was at Class 2 and he's down in class off the same mark today. His Instant Expert numbers showed that he'll like the conditions here and he's got the right pace profile for this contest, so I like his chances here.

He's drawn in 8 of 9 with only Only Spoofing outside of him. Only Spoofing won this race last year, of course and is 7lbs better off this time around, he has a similar pace profile to Ready Freddie Go, loves good ground and has a good record on this track. He looked ready to strike again when just a nose behind an 11/10 favourite at Bellewstown last time out and must enter calculations here.

And for me, the race is between this pair and I've very little between them to be honest. As 5/1 third fav here, Ready Freddie Go might offer a little more value with Only Spoofing being the 9/4 favourite (prices from Hils at 4.45pm : the only book open)

As for a placer or E/W bet, there's not much jumping out at me on the prices quoted, but outsider Resilience might be better than his current 14/1 ticket. If he runs like he did at York last Saturday, you'd be burning your money, but he raced here four weeks ago over course and distance and was only headed late on, finishing in second, just half a length behind the 5/2 favourite who has since made the frame at both Class 3 and Class 2. You don't know what you're going to get from Resilience, but that's probably why he's 8th fav of 9!

Racing Insights, Thursday 03/08/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.45 Galway
  • 5.05 Galway
  • 6.10 Galway
  • 6.40 Newcastle
  • 8.15 Newcastle

As most of you, I don't really do Irish racing and those two Newcastle races aren't great, but as I was flicking through the cards with the daily feature, Instant Expert, in mind, I spotted this...

Now, I don't know what kind of quality we're dealing with here, but it looks competitive with plenty of runners having fared well under expected conditions, so I'm going to be looking at the 5.25 Stratford, a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 3m2½f on good/good to soft ground...

Only Mr Yeats has failed to win any of his last three outings, but he has made the frame in all three. Scarpia won last time out and Gentleman Valley has won each of his last three. In fact I backed him via this column last time out!

He's up 6lbs now to a career-high mark of 123, but he hasn't stepped up in class, unlike the bottom three on the card, Hoganville, Mr Yeats and Hunting Percival, who all step up from Class 4 despite not winning last time out. The latter of that trio is a bit hit and miss wit a win and two runner-up finishes from his last six runs, but was pulled up in the other three, so he's clearly unreliable.

He has, however, won here at Stratford in the past (in a 2m7f hurdle), whilst Isthebaropen (great question!) won a 2m6½f hurdle here too. Hoganville and Mr Yeats have both won at a similar trip to this one, whilst top weight Shantou Express is the only previous course and distance winner, achieved two starts ago and he has also scored here over 3m3f, so track/trip shouldn't pose any issues.

Isthebaropen could be excused for needing a run after a break of over nine months since being pulled up at Aintree and it's ten months since he last completed a race and I'd be reluctant to back him until I'd seen him have a run. The others have all raced in the last seven weeks with Hunting Percival sighted as recently as Monday when pulled up over fences at Newton Abbot. he did, however, win her over 2m7f on his last effort over hurdles a month ago and this is reflected in that Instant Expert graphic I opened with, that I've reproduced below...

The entire filed are 3-6lbs higher than their last winning marks, so none gain any real advantage there and the above data doesn't really cause me any grounds for concern, although Mr Yeats and Scarpia do look a little weaker than the others on that evidence, but there's not a great deal in it. A trip in excess of three and a quarter miles on ground softer than good might take some getting though and there does appear to be a wide range of tactics employed by this field in recent outings...

If the above is anything to go by, then it could well be an early tussle for the lead between Shantou Express, Scarpia and Hoganville, whilst the returning Isthebaropen looks content to bide his time. The issue there, of course, is that he becomes too far off the pace and is too rusty after his lay-off to make up the ground on a track that hasn't been kind to hold-up types...

At this point, I think that's enough negatives about Isthebaropen and he now joins Hunting Percival in the discard list, leaving five in with a shout.

Summary

Realistically, any of the five I've got left in could go on and win this, but the way that Gentleman Valley won so easily at Worcester last time out makes me think he's still in front of the handicapper. He might well open up too short for me to back, but if I could get 5/2, I'd be pretty happy in such a competitive race. As for who completes the forecast, you really could make a case for any of the other four runners , so I'm going to refer back to our feature of the day, Instant Expert, to look at the place stats...

...and tentatively suggest Mr Yeats marginally ahead of Scarpia, who might well relish the step up in trip. Both Bet365 and SkyBet will pay three places when they open up, so fingers crossed that one of this latter pair are long enough for a small E/W bet.

PS Gentleman Valley was readily available at 5/2 just after 4pm when i took 8/1 E/W about Mr Yeats with bet365.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 02/08/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 4.55 Redcar
  • 6.40 Galway
  • 7.15 Galway
  • 7.27 Sandown
  • 8.12 Leicester

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following...

...and with two of the in-form yards above both having a runner in the same race from our daily free list, it makes sense to see how Balboa and Roost might get on against six other runners in the 7.27 Sandown, a Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a right-handed 1m6f on good to soft ground, The track is already softer in places and more rain is forecast for this group...

Kyle of Lochalsh and Alhambra Palace were both last time winners, whilst top-weight and sole female in the race Grand Providence seeks to complete a hat-trick of wins. Elsewhere Cavern Club and Enochdhu both won four starts ago, but Royal Deeside and our two featured runners, Roost and Balboa, are all five-race maidens.

Royal Deeside also runs for the second time in handicap company and Roost runs for the first time since being gelded during a 78-day absence : all his rivals have raced in the last month or so. Kyle of Lochalsh is the only class mover here, stepping up one level after getting off the mark at Newbury three weeks ago and bottom weight/featured horse Balboa makes a yard debut for Milton Harris almost three weeks after finishing 5th of 11 over course and distance on the last of his five (all unplaced) runs for Jamie Osborne.

The field have only won 8 of their combined 47 outings (17% SR) with no course nor distance wins, but they have made the frame on 15 (31.9%) of their runs to date, so we might glean a little more from the place stats on Instant Expert than we do from a win perspective...

The field haven't raced in the wet too often, but both Alhambra Palace and Cavern Club have shown some ability to deal with good to soft ground, whilst Roost and Enochdhu probably won't mind if more rain does come. The latter, however, has yet to make the frame in five starts at Class 4, wheras Cavern Club has a win and two places from his five efforts. No course or distance winners, of course, but Kyle of Lochalsh did win over 1m5½f at Newbury last time out and if conditions make this a slog, then Grand Providence's win over 2m½f on her last start might well come in to play.

Cavern Club wouldn't be an obvious pick here, but his place stats are decent enough and he's drawn in stall 1 giving him the rail to help keep him straight. Somewhat surprisingly, albeit off a really small data sample, there's actually a hint of a draw bias at play here, with low draws (especially stalls 1 & 2) doing better than expected...

...although I do still think that a horse's chances of winning a race over 1m6f shouldn't really be decided by which of eight stalls he/she breaks from and that race tactics aka pace would be more of a determining factor and if I look back at that small sample of races above, it looks like those runners who race prominently just off the leader(s) would be the type of horse you'd want to be with...

...and based on the way this relatively inexperienced field have approached their races so far, I'd expect Enochdhu and Balboa to set the pace here wit the likes of Roost, Kyle of Lochalsh and Grand Providence being the stalking horses waiting to pick them off...

Summary

I suspect this race will run to form and that the three LTO winners will be the ones to focus on here. At 3.40pm on Tuesday, I'd had no odds available to discuss, but I'd imagine that Alhambra Palace might well go off quite short without offering too much value and that the one to side with could be Kyle of Lochalsh. He's drawn low, will race prominently, should get the trip and won well last time out. Hopefully I can get somewhere near the 5/1 mark about him when the markets open.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 01/08/23

/in /by

Sorry for the lack of a preview of Monday's racing, I was out all day Sunday with a plan to putting the piece up early on Monday morning. Sadly, United Utilities had other ideas and we'd no power here until after 1pm!

Thankfully, everything seems fine now, so we'll kick off the new month with a look at Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Presentandcounting and Kinross are of obvious interest, but Indication Spirit, Basford and Pride of America must also be worth a look at. I've shown you this graphic, because Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

We do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.00 Beverley
  • 4.00 Goodwood
  • 5.05 Beverley
  • 6.20 Perth
  • 8.20 Galway

When you've a runner scoring 15 on The Shortlist running in a race from the free list that happens to be a Class 1 affair, then it'd be rude of me not to look at the race in question, even if Kinross is likely to be a short-priced favourite in the 4.00 Goodwood, the 8-runner, Group 2 Lennox Stakes. The trip is a right-handed 7f on ground that is currently good to soft with softer patches in places and here's the line-up...

Holguin won last time out and Audience comes here on a hat-trick. Featured horse Kinross won this race in 2021 and his last six races have seen him land two wins and a runner-up at Gr2 plus a win and a place at Gr1, the only blot being a 5 length defeat at Ascot when 7th of 16 in the Gr1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes two starts ago, as he came off a 250+ day absence. Elsewhere Isaac Shelby is inexperienced but has won three of his five starts to date including success at Gr3 and Gr2.

If we look at the weights, the 3yr old Isaac Shelby would be best off based on Official Ratings, as he's rated a 114 horse and will carry 6lbs less than the 119-rated Kinross, but these two look most well in based on handicap marks with Pogo looking the worst treated here, carrying 6lbs more than Isaac Shelby despite being rated 3lbs worse.

All eight set to go to post have raced in the last 17-42 days, so we shouldn't have any fitness issues here and all bar Indestructible have won at least once over 7f, as his two wins have been over 6f and 1m. Only three of the field have raced at Goodwood before with both Marbaan and Kinross having won Gr2 events over course and distance. Pogo is the other to have raced here and although winless in four attempts, he has made the frame three times including twice at Gr2.

Instant Expert tells us that Audience has yet to run on good to soft or soft ground and that Holguin would prefer more rain to come. Kinross won't be too concerned if it dries out or gets a bit wetter and Al Suhail won't want any more rain....

You can quickly see why Kinross is at the top of The Shortlist and the likely favourite here, but the relatively unexposed Isaac Shelby looks well suited here too. Featured horse Kinross has the inside stall and a non-runner was drawn in stall 3, so Al Suhail is effectively drawn in 8 of 8 over a track/trip where horses drawn in stall 1 (Kinross) have won most often on good to soft/soft ground, but that generally speaking a more central draw has suited better...

...and this is backed up by the PRB3 data, which suggests a draw in the first five stalls might be more advantageous...

...but that being drawn higher wouldn't necessarily be a disaster, as the emphasis here seems to more about race tactics, as seen here...

...from which I'm going to say that those who can go hard early, should do that but if you're not a natural front-runner, then you're better off dropping in at the back for a late run for the line. The way this field has approached its most recent contests suggests that Audience and possibly Al Suhail will be setting the tempo...

...with featured runner and favourite Kinross the hold-up horse.

Summary

Kinross is the class horse here and has been running really well in Gr1 races, so this is a step down in quality for him. He's won this race before, Frankie's on board having won 4 times on the horse already, he tops the Instant Expert stats, has the 'plum draw' in stall 1 and his hold-up tactics should be spot on. All in all, I can't see Kinross getting beaten here. The question is this : do we back him at 11/8 or seek value elsewhere? That's entirely your call, I'm afraid, but I can see him going off much shorter, if that's any help to you.

Somewhat predictably, I also think that second favourite Isaac Shelby is the one likely to give Kinross the biggest challenge, but at 9/2, I won't be having an E/W bet. I think this one is already very good as a 3 yr old, but will certainly improve with age. If I am having an E/W bet, it would be the front-running Audience that would carry my money at 10/1. Although he is untested on this anything softer than good ground, he's in good form, this is his trip and he gets on really well with today's jockey. He might well be afforded a soft lead and if so, he could easily hang on for a place.

Glorious Goodwood 2023: Day 1 Preview, Pointers, Tips

/in , /by

The wonderful carnival of racing that is the Qatar Goodwood Festival, or always 'Glorious Goodwood' to many, commences on Tuesday and there is a glut of top class racing and, indeed, races full stop. Eight contests punctuate the opening day, beginning with a big field five furlong sprint handicap and headlined later on by the Group 2 Lennox Stakes, arguably the best seven-furlong race in the British calendar, and the Group 1 Goodwood Cup.

My approach this week will be more short hand than has been historically the case, with one race previewed in depth and the remainder given the pointer treatment: I'll suggest what I think are some of the more material factors to consider in your own deliberations. I might lob in a selection or three where I feel that's appropriate. Anyway, you'll see what I mean as we proceed...

The going is currently good to soft, good in places, with plenty of rain forecast. The latest live weather station readings are here.

1.40 Coral Handicap (5f Handicap 4yo+, Class 2)

15 runners in what I suspect will be wet ground. Draw and pace will be factors but so too will an ability to handle the conditions of a big field and soft turf. These are more exposed runners so Instant Expert is a decent port of call. One horse stands out there: last year's Group 2 King George Stakes second over course and distance, Raasel.

The winner that day was Khaadem, subsequently a Royal Ascot Group 1 winner, and Raasel has been running very well in Group company this season. His Goodwood record is 112 and he handles all going. If there is a draw bias it might be towards low numbers, so trap four will be right in the mix. My only slight niggle is his general waited with run style, but he's tractable in that regard and could get a slightly more forward ride here.

Look for horses that can handle, the going, grade and, if they all go, field size. Then look for bookmakers offering bonus places!

2.15 British EBF Maiden Stakes (6f maiden, 2yo, Class 2)

Not really a race I know anything about. Perhaps look to Goodwood trainers such as Charlie Johnston (taking over from his dad but well advertised as having plotted a squad for this meeting), Andrew Balding and, to a lesser extent, Karl Burke and Charles Hills. Richard Hannon runs a lot of horses in Glorious Goodwood 2yo non-handicaps and occasionally hits the target, but he is expensive to follow (-55% ROI since 2016).

Nine of the last ten winners were sent off 13/2 or shorter, though the other was 100/1! The balance of probabilities is that the market will have this winner in its crosshairs.

2.50 Chesterfield Cup Handicap (1m2f Handicap, 4yo+, Class 2)

Team Johnston have won this four times since 2014 and usually at a price, so Outbreak is of immediate interest. He's up in trip from a mile to ten furlongs but was a length third over this range in a valuable handicap on the All-Weather Finals day consolation card. Showing at 14/1 with Sky - six places - that's plausibly playable on the trainer angle alone. The going may make things more testing, which is a concern, but he's a square price to have a cut at.

Moktasaab was third in this last year off a five pound higher mark and will benefit from a waiting ride from Hayley Turner, a fine exponent of such tactics. He's quite likely to have been 'jobbed up' for this and is 12/1 with the same firm and the same place concession.

3.25 Vintage Stakes (7f, Group 2, 2yo)

The first Group race of the week is a two year old event over seven furlongs. Winners of this have typically been strong market fancies, though it was a 14/1 shot that prevailed a year ago.

It's a bit too tricky for me.

4.00 Lennox Stakes (7f, Group 2, 3yo+)

An excellent race in prospect, and a clear and obvious favourite in Kinross. He was second in the race last year when ridden by Frankie Dettori, and that man remains in the saddle, as he has been in three subsequent wins the most recent of which was the Group 1 Champions Sprint over six good to soft furlongs. He ran well when third in the July Cup last time, again over six, and looks ready to return to seven-eighths. I think he'll win for all that that's a mightily unoriginal observation.

Of his rivals, I am not yet convinced by Isaac Shelby, whose second in the French 2000 Guineas has yet to be backed up by this lad. That said, he's had only the one spin since, when fourth to Paddington in the St James's Palace at Royal Ascot; the thinking may be that a true run mile stretches him whereas he can use his turn of foot over seven. Still, he's got it to prove, to me at least.

Pogo has plenty of classy runs to his name which, being a seven-year-old, he's had more chance to achieve. He seems to go on any ground and seven looks his best trip. I can see him running a nice race without having the class or youth to beat them all.

Al Suhail was less than three lengths behind Kinross in the G2 Park Stakes over seven at Donny last September and has picked up a packet of prize money in Dubai at the trip this spring. He ran a creditable race over six at Royal Ascot and can step forward again here. The Park Stakes third was on soft as is most of his best form.

A possible lone pace angle is Audience, who is a steady improver this season for the Gosden squad. He won two back in a fair handicap and then bolted up on seasonal debut this term in a Group 3 a month ago, Jumby his closest pursuer at a distance of two lengths. There are not many miles on his clock and, if he handles the ground - unraced on softer than good - he could be hard to peg back.

That was Jumby's sole defeat in his last five starts, progressing from a Class 3 conditions race to a Group 2 score in the Hungerford last time. He has it to prove on the slow ground but has an otherwise attractive profile.

Closest to 2000 Guineas winner Chaldean twice at the tail end of last season was Indestructible, and he opened his portfolio this year with a score in the Craven Stakes. He's since been battered in both the 2000G and the St J's P and has a good bit to prove at this point in terms of whether he's trained on (and whether his form is good enough anyway).

Winner of the Vintage Stakes last year, over the same course and distance, and also Group 2, was Marbaan. He returns to familiar climes then and may end up the pick of the three-year-olds. That said, Holguin has soft ground form aplenty and comes here off the back of a Listed 7f win at Chester last time. This, naturally, is a step up - two steps up - but conditions fit.

The best horse in this race on official figures, RPR's and Topspeed numbers is Kinross, and he also gets pretty much optimal conditions. Frankie needs to guard against tactical pitfalls in a race where the progressive Audience may get a soft lead; but he rarely misfires on the bigger stages and I think he'll win.

He's an unexciting price but it's hard to find an alternative bet: things look competitive for the places. Audience should get the run of it, while Holguin and Al Suhail are well suited to the conditions; meanwhile, Pogo is a warhorse at this level and Jumby may not be done with his upgrades yet.

But they're all a few pounds behind last year's second, KINROSS.

4.35 Goodwood Cup (2m4f, Group 1, 3yo+)

This looks very competitive indeed with four horses separated by one pound on official ratings. The least exposed is the Gold Cup winner from Royal Ascot, Courage Mon Ami, and that is reflected in his top of the market status. Coltrane, proven on softer turf, where CMA is not, looks a playable alternative to the jolly, though he does have a tendency to find one too good. He's hyper consistent.

At bigger prices Tashkhan stays well and loves the mud, but he has a good bit to find on the form; and Giavellotto is another who could feature. Very tricky.

5.05 Coral Fillies' Handicap (1m, Class 3, 3yo+)

You very likely need to be drawn low to win this. So far, first place has gone to the fillies drawn 1, 5, 5, 7, 15, 2, 3. The winner from 15 ended up winning the next season's Group 2 Duke of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot so was very smart. Unless there's an equally smart one in here I'd be staying low.

A feature of this field is there looks to be a ton of early speed on, so I'm now favouring low and midfield to held up. That gives me a tentative small stakes shortlist of Back See Daa, Miss Mojito and System (four length 5th in this last year).

Good luck, and don't blame me if trap 20 wins!

5.35 World Pool Fillies' Handicap (6f, Class 3, 3yo+)

If it's genuinely soft, high draws will have it all to do as the heatmap below outlines.

 

A handy position also looks helpful, which brings in plenty:

 

Kitai is a Johnston runner that fits the bill, but it's clearly tricky trappy truly treacherous territory.

Good luck.

Matt

Your first 30 days for just £1