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Racing Insights, Wednesday 23/08/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.50 Bath
  • 3.00 York
  • 3.45 Carlisle
  • 5.05 Bath
  • 5.10 Sligo

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

14-day form...

30-day form...

1-year course form...

Of all the races above (free & TS report), the Great Voltigeur (3.00 York) is clearly the highest rated, but with just five going to post, I'll swerve that one. Sadly the rest of our highlighted races are at Class 4 and below, the most valuable of which is the race featuring in-form James Tate's 3yo gelding Endless Power, who runs in the 8.22 Kempton, a 13-runner, Class 4, 3yo+, A/W handicap over a right-handed mile on standard to slow polytrack...

Endless Power was a winner last time out, as was Starshiba, whilst Baileysgutfeeling, Two Tempting, Owl Island, Florida and Super Den have all won at least one of their last five races.

Four of these (Spinaround, Baileysgutfeeling, Owl Island and Florida) drop down a grade from Class 3 action with the latter having just a second handicap run, whilst First View is down two classes here. Featured runner and LTO winner Endless Power is the only class riser, as he makes a handicap debut on his step up from a Class 5 run four weeks ago.

Most of his rivals have also had a recent (last 45 days) run, but Spinaround has been off for almost ten weeks and Florida has been away almost fifteen weeks and might need a run. He's tongue tied for the first time here, whilst Baltimore Boy debuts in a visor and it's a first run in blinkers for Million Thanks.

First View and Super Den have both won over this course and distance in the past and Baileysgutfeeling, Starshiba, Ernie's Valentine and Florida have all scored on this track. Spinaround, Starshiba, Million Thanks and Endless Power are all former mile winners on other tracks.

Collateral/relative A/W form is displayed on Instant Expert, where First View would appear to be in his element...

...as his four-race A/W career reads 1121, all over course and distance with the defeat coming by just a head and his last run here saw him land a Class 2 contest off a mark 3lbs higher than today, so this track & trip specialist might be very dangerously weighted here if recapturing some old form. Spinaround, Baltimore Boy, Million Thanks and Venetian look most vulnerable albeit off small sample sizes and the only real concerns I have from the above are Starshiba's 1 from 7 on standard to slow and Two Tempting now being 7lbs higher than a course and distance win by a neck two starts ago.

The place stats don't actually help to clear things up. If anything they muddy the waters further by showing that this might well end up being rather competitive, see for yourself...

I think we'll put that to one side and have a look at our Draw Analyser of past similar races to see if any of these might have been handed an advantage by stall means of stall allocation...

...and whilst it's not the biggest draw bias you'll ever see, the inference is that you'd want to be in the lower half of the draw here, whilst our Pace Analyser says that those races above have benefited those most willing to set the tempo...

...so we're looking for runners keen to get on with things and this is how the field have approached their most recent outings...

...and I think that I want 2.50 to be my cut-off point here, especially as all those below that line have been held-up at least once in their last four outings. If I then order the top seven from that chart into draw order and over lay the pace/draw heat map, we get something like this...

...where we've ended up with seven of the eight lowest drawn being the seven with the best pace profile from the race.

Summary

I'm happy at the way we've ended up with seven runners to consider from thirteen and the process is robust, but with the bookies only paying four places, I have to get rid of at least three and I think that Bottom weight and possible leader Venetian is the weakest of the seven. he has been well beaten in three of his last five runs (all defeats) since winning narrowly at Wolverhampton back in November 2022 and is still 2lbs higher than that win, so he's a no from me.

Of the rest, there's only really Million Thanks that I wouldn't be too keen on. He has won just one of sixteen to date and is on a run of thirteen defeats, six of which represent his entire A/W career, although he has been a course and distance runner-up twice this year. He has been beaten by 6 lengths or more in three of his last five, so he's out of my reckoning too.

Which leaves us with five runners for four places and I think all five have a good chance of making the frame. In card order and using Bet365's odds as of 5.10pm Tuesday (the only book open)...

...my initial response would be to (a) be a little disappointed that all my possibles are at the sharper end of the market and 9b0 place a small E/W bet on First View. He's down in class, scores well on Instant Expert and could be dangerous off today's mark.

The one that I think will win is Two Tempting, he's still progressing well and with a win and four runner-up finishes from his seven runs those season allied to finishes of 14221 in five handicap efforts over course and distance, he's sure to be there or thereabouts, so another small bet at a fair price of 9/2 is in order here. I've absolutely nothing against backing any of Owl Island, Florida or Endless Power for a place either, other than I'm not keen on going that short in the market for such a bet, but I'd not be surprised to see them in the frame.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 22/08/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...whilst we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 4.00 Newton Abbot
  • 6.00 Worcester
  • 7.00 Worcester

Both Worcester races feature on The Shortlist above and I think I'll have a look at Peregrine Run in the 6.00 Worcester, a 12-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m7f on good ground...

Brief Times arrives here on a hat-trick and is thwe only LTO winner on the pack, although Courtland has three wins and a runner-up finish from his last four outings. Featured horse Peregrine Run carries top weight here and he has two wins and a place from his last four whilst Hell Red, Go On Chez, Saint Arvans & The Vollan have all won once in five.

Only four (Peregrine Run, Ruthless Article, Hell Red & Eritage) of these raced at this grade last time out as Brief Times, Go On Chez, Saint Arvans, Organdi and The Vollan all step up a level from Class 3 and bottom weight Gats and Co is up two classes whilst Killer Clown and Courtland both ran at Class 1 a month ago in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen where the former was pulled up whilst the latter was the runner-up beaten by just three quarters of a length having conceded 13lbs to the winner who has since won again.

Peregrine Run won this race last year (but is now 9lbs higher) making him the only course and distance winner in the field, although Saint Arvans, The Vollan and Gats And Co have all won over this trip elsewhere, whilst Courtland (2 x 2m4½f chases) and The Vollan (2m4f hurdle) have both won on this track.

We've no new headgear on show, no horses moving yard and all bar The Vollan have had a run in the last 16 to 35 days, but The Vollan hasn't been seen since being pulled up at Market Rasen on Boxing Day last year and can be excused if he needs the run.

In terms of previous chase outings under similar conditions, Instant Expert suggests that most will be well suited by the good ground...

...although Killer Clown, Ruthless Article and Organdi are a pretty poor 3 from 29 between on the going. As you'd expect from The Shortlist, Peregrine Run has the best figures under these conditions but it has to be said that apart from the odd decent run here and there, he's not the horse he was in 2018/19 when winning Listed & Grade 3 contests. Mind you, he is 13 now and time isn't his friend.

Killer Clown and Organdi's record over this kind of trip is as bad as their records on good ground and it's time to remove that pair from my calculations, even if the former has landed a couple of Class 2 chases.

If I think Peregrine Run's star is on the wane, but he has the best figures, it's probably worth looking at the place stats for the ten remaining runners to see who might emerge as a contender...

Again, Peregrine Run's numbers are excellent, but the one looking like the one to beat so far is Courtland. Aside from being unexposed in this grade, conditions look ideal for him and he's 3 from 5 under today's jockey, although he is a whopping 12lbs heavier than his last win and 6lbs heavier than his Class 1 near-miss last time out.

He tends to race prominently, but will probably have to tuck in behind expected pace-maker Gats And Co, if the field's last four outings are anything to go by...

...whilst The Vollan and Go On Chez seem destined to be held up for a late run, a tactic which hasn't really been that successful in past races here at Worcester...

Summary

The pace scores suggest that Gats And Co will lead in a race that suits leaders, but I feel he's going to be more a pace-maker/target for the runners just in behind him rather than being a serious contender himself.

He won four chases on the bounce (but is only 4 from 19 in his career) in Feb to June of 2022 taking his mark from 92 to 125 and hasn't looked remotely like winning any of eight races since and with him being some 9lbs wrong at the weights here, I predict a ninth successive loss.

That, of course, opens the door to those racing closest to him, of which the pick has to be Courtland. He comes here in terrific form and was only narrowly beaten at a higher grade last time out. His Instant Expert scores were good and he has a brilliant relationship with today's jockey. 4/1 isn't overly generous, but it's probably about right, so it's Courtland for me here.

Of the others, I wouldn't be surprised to see the 7/1 Hell Red and the 9/2 Brief Times go well, whilst others in with a shout of making the frame (bookies go 4 places) would include (alphabetically) Peregrine Run and Saint Arvans.

Go On Chez is the current 4/1 jt fav along with Courtland, but he was beaten by Brief Times last time out and both face tougher tasks here.

Racing Insights, Saturday 19/08/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated a stack of qualifiers for me to consider...

14-day form...

30-day form...

1-year form...

Course 5-year form...

...in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 3.10 Newmarket
  • 4.00 Curragh
  • 4.05 Newbury
  • 4.35 Curragh
  • 4.55 Newmarket
  • 5.50 Tramore

The Owen/Cobden partnership has been flying over the last year and their sole runner on Saturday is up against one of the McCain/Hughes runners and that partnership has been excellent on that track for many a year now, so let's see how Too Friendly and Finisk River might get on in the 3.20 Perth, a 7-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed two miles on good ground...

Top-weight Too Friendly, handicap debutant Liverpool Knight and course and distance winner Well Planted all come here off the back of LTO successes in the last four weeks. Too Friendly has two wins and a second from his last three, Liverpool Knight is on a hat-trick and only Earth Company (who hasn't completed 3 of his last 4) & Dexter are winless in seven.

Despite being winless in seven, Earth Company is up one class here on his debut for Patrick Neville, as are Finisk River and Well Planted, whilst the hat-trick seeking, handicap debutant Liverpool Knight is up two steps.

The bottom two on the card, Earth Company and Dexter are both tongue-tied for the first time and both makes debuts in new headgear : a hood and cheekpieces respectively, whilst both are ridden by claimers. Earth Company might also need a run after a 103-day absence, as all his rivals have raced in the past four weeks.

At this point, there's little going on in Earth Company's favour and I'm already sure I won't be backing him, even if Instant Expert says he has won at this trip and has scored on good ground...

There's not huge chunks of data to consider here, but it does highlight the inadequate results for Castel Gandolfo on good ground and at Class 2, whilst it does also say that Too Friendly's better form has come on different going (good to soft). Normally we'd then look at place stats, but they just seem to muddy the water...

...as based on that, virtually all of them have enough to make the frame, whilst from a pace perspective their chances of doing so are greatly increased by racing prominently or even leading...

...and the same can be said to a slightly lesser extent about the winners of those races. which is advantage Too Friendly, based on the fields recent performances...

Summary

Nice and quick today and a fairly easy decision for me to suggest Too Friendly as the one to beat.

The trainer/jockey combo have 6 wins and 3 runner-ups together from 11 races over the last year, the horse is in great (121) form and gets the trip readily. He's got the best pace profile of the seven runners and the only blot is his weaker record on good ground than he has on slightly softer, but that's probably why he's the 5/2 second favourite in the early market (4pm and only Hills open) rather than heading the field.

Liverpool Knight has that 'honour' at 9/4 and whlst he's in great form too, he's up two classes here and this will far tougher than the stroll around he had last time out. That said, he's sure to be there or thereabouts.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 18/08/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded just one Irish 'possible'...

...but I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.40 Newbury
  • 3.45 Newbury
  • 4.45 Epsom
  • 4.50 Cork
  • 4.55 Newbury
  • 6.43 Tramore

...from which there's not much to excite me, so I'm going to foocus on the day's highest rated handicap race, the 8.05 Newmarket, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on good ground...

The form horse would appear to be bottom-weight Sudden Ambush who won last time out and is two from three and three from six. As a 3yr old, he's getting a 6lbs weight allowance here as are Finn's Charm and Lose Your Wad.

Bear Force One is two from four, but his recent results look binary (1010) and Finn's Charm, Arqoob, Repertoire & Lose Your Wad have all won at least one of their last five. The entire field have won at least once over this trip, but only Bear Force One has won here at Newmarket, having scored over course and distance way back in July 2020.

LTO winner Sudden Ambush wears a tongue tie for the first time here and is up one class, as is Azano, whilst Repertoire is up two classes despite finishing 8th of 9 at Yarmouth last time out. All bar Arqoob have raced in the last eight weeks or so, but he's been off for 111 days, during which time he has moved from Lucy Wadham's yard and now debuts for William Jarvis.

As well as possibly needing a run, Arqoob is going to have to run better on good ground than he has previously, because Instant Expert highlights the going as one of his weaknesses...

Azano is another with a low win percentage on good ground and he looks very weak right across the board, which isn't too surprising for a horse with just 3 wins from 32 outings. Intellogent and to a lesser extent Lose Your Wad also look pretty weak under these conditions. Sudden Ambush looks decent albeit off a small sample size, whilst Bear Force One looks consistent if unspectacular from a win perspective and he also has decent place stats too...

...where Azano remains weak on class/distance. Bopedro, Bear Force One and Sudden Ambush seem the ones to focus on from Instant Expert and they're all drawn fairly close together in 3, 4 and 6 with Azano the filling in the sandwich in that central cluster that seems to have avoided the lower stalls that our Draw Analyser suggests is a poor place to run from...

...but I'm not entirely convinced by that set of figures, but I wasn't surprised to see that the Pace Analyser show that those races were won by horses keen to get on with things...

...generating the following pace/draw heat map...

...where the mid-drawn hold-up horses aside, the greens are where you'd expect them to be based on the above data, but do we have a mid/high drawn leader in our pack?

This suggests that the pace will come from stalls 3 to 7 with Azano leading the charge, as he has done in ten of his last eleven races. That said, he hasn't really looked like winning any of them and I don't expect that to change here. Finn's Charm looks like the next cab off the rank, but was last of four and 25th of 29 either side of a runner-up finish in the German 2000 Guineas in May and was then beaten by almost 20 lengths last time out, so it's probably not going to be his day either.

My feeling here is that Azano and Finns Charm will tow Sudden Ambush and Bear Force One into the race and that this latter pair will end up being the ones to beat.

Summary

Sudden Ambush and Bear Force One now look the ones to be with here and the early (3.10pm friday) market has them at a best-priced 10/3 fav and 7/1 respectively with Hills and I think that's probably the right way round, although there might not be much in it and the latter might well be the value play here, especially if he drifts any and we can go E/W.

As for one for the frame, I can't put Azano, Finn's Charm or Intellogent forward based on the above. Repertoire and Bopedro look to have too much to do from the back, whilst Lose Your Wad is out of sorts and poorly drawn.  This, almost by default, puts Arqoob in the spotlight and if he gets the 'new trainer bounce' that many runners do get, he's only 3lbs higher than his last win and was in good form over hurdles in the winter. And at 17/2 or bigger later, he mightn't be a bad E/W pick here if the return to Team Jarvis works.

Racing Insights, Thursday 17/08/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.40 Salisbury
  • 4.10 Salisbury
  • 4.35 Leopardstown
  • 6.30 Windsor
  • 8.05 Leopardstown

And although the Racing League is at Windsor on Thursday, the best of the UK races from the free list, despite having a small field, has to be the 4.10 Salisbury, a 6-runner, 3yo+, Group 3, Flat contest over a straight mile on good ground...

This initially looks like two races in one, with me agreeing with the early market in suggesting that the winner and placer(s) come from Regal Reality, Mighty Ulysses and Embesto, whilst Dancing Magic looks out of his depth, despite a 6lbs weight allowance, but let's have a closer look at the whole field...

REGAL REALITY is now 8yrs old and won a Group 3 race last time out, meaning he's now won one in each of the last six years. He won this race back in 2020 making him the only course and distance winner in the field and if not troubled by a 75-day absence, should be right in the mix despite a 3lb penalty for winning the Diomed at Epsom.

CHICHESTER makes a debut for the Johnston yard two months after his last run for Keith Dalgleish, which saw him win a Listed race at York. He's in good nick with tewo wins and two runner-up finishes from five runs this year, but it has to be said that his best form is at Class 2 and on the A/W. Was well beaten in a Gr3 at Sandown two starts ago.

MIGHTY ULYSSES won a Listed race at Newmarket last July thre weeks after finishing closer than 5th of 11 might suggest in the St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. He was, in fact, only 0.8 lengths behind the winner in a blanket finish where two lengths separated 1st and 7th. Was well beaten in a Gr2 race at Ascot a month ago, but can be excused on his first outing in 11 months. He should come on for that run as he drops in quality and wears cheekpieces for the first time.

POGO is a keen front-runner who made the frame in three group 2 races and won twice at Group 3 in a sustained run of form from August '21 to July '22. He was a runner-up another Gr2 this time last year, before winning one at Newmarket in October, but clearly needed the run when 10th of 12 at Ascot in June and was only 3rd of 6 at Newmarket last time out. Much will depend on whether he's allowed to dominate.

DANCING MAGIC is a 9-race maiden whose best effort was on his third start when a runner-up in a Listed event at Haydock almost a year ago. This will be his eighth attempt at winning a Class 1 contest and based on his 5th of 6, beaten by 9 lengths, in a Listed race at Newbury last month, he won't be ending the day in the winners' enclosure.

EMBESTO is a lightly-raced 3yr old who'll be aided by a weight allowance here. He has two wins and a runner-up finish from his three career starts to date, but that 2nd of 6 in a Listed event at HQ last month is the pick of his runs after 2 wins (1 x maiden, 1 x novice) at Class 5. There could/should be more to come but he's a bit of an unknown quantity.

Feature of the day is Instant Expert...

...and it suggests that Regal Reality and Chichester might not like the underfoot conditions. it's true that the former does prefer it a little quicker, but he has won on good to soft and soft ground, so there's no real reason why he wouldn't 'get' good ground, whilst Chichester also likes it quicker and is better on the A/W. Dancing Magic's poor record stands out like a sore thumb on these win stats, whilst the place date says...

...that Pogo might well have a good chance of making the frame here, as he's well versed under today's conditions. Again Chichester and Dancing Magic look weak and this is probably a 4-way battle for the money.

I've got to admit that the following draw data...

...surprised me a little, as I wasn't expecting any advantage from the draw in a small field over a straight mile, but those drawn highest seem to have struggled to win as often as those closer to the rail, so that's another nail in the coffin of Dancing Magic/Chichester's chances, which is just further affirmation of how unlikely it'd be for them to win. If we then consider how those races have been won, they'd really need to favour front-runners if Pogo is going to gatecrash the three original horses I expected to be first home, so let's check the pace stats...

...which is good news indeed for Pogo. Hold-up horses haven't fared well at all from a win or place perspective which would be yet another reason not to back Chichester...

..and it's not ideal for Mighty Ulysses.

Summary

I started by saying that the winner and placer(s) would come from Regal Reality, Mighty Ulysses and Embesto whilst Dancing Magic looks out of his depth, despite a 6lbs weight allowance and whilst I think this might still be the case, I've also shown enough reasons to ditch Chichester but to promote Pogo to the rank of 'possibles'.

Mighty Ulysses now looks marginally weaker than Regal Reality and Embesto, so I fear that he's the one of the trio most at risk, especially if he's held up and Pogo pours it on early. Pogo's best chance of winning/making the frame is to try and get out sharpish, but I think Regal Reality might just go with him and at 4/1, the old boy would be my tentative/marginal pick here.

It's going to be competitive, despite the small field and any one of the four could win/make the frame, so I won't be putting too much money down. Only Dancing Magic is at backable E/W odds, but even 25/1 couldn't tempt me!

Racing Insights, Wednesday 16/08/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.20 Salisbury
  • 3.35 Yarmouth
  • 4.20 Beverley
  • 5.25 Beverley
  • 6.30 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have only highlighted the following two yards in good recent form...

14-day form...

30-day form...

Of the nine races highlighted above the first of the free cards is for a Listed event, but I'm not wild about lightly raced 2yr olds, so next best is actually the 4.20 Beverley, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 7½f on good to firm ground...

Reputation is considerably older than the rest of the field, but he is our sole LTO winner here, yet he might need the run after a break of almost a year. Autumn Festival, Metahorse, Craven and Ring of Gold all had top three finishes with the latter denoted as a fast finisher : perhaps he needs to get going sooner!

The top three in the weights (Autumn Festival, Mudamer and On The River) all drop down from a recent run at Class 3 and Mudamer is the only one of the three yet to win over course and distance. In fact none of the rest of the field have achieved this, but Beltane has at least woin here at Beverley over 1m½f back in June, two starts ago.

We know that Reputation has been away for a good while, but apart from Ron O's 103-day absence, the rest of the runners here have all raced in the last six weeks.

Instant Expert says that a few of these are shy of wins under expected conditions...

...although they do seem to have the knack of making the frame...

From those numbers above, I'd be a little concerned about Beltane's inability at Class 4 and the fact that Satin Snake just doesn't win on turf. Ron O is some 18lbs higher than his last/only turf win, but he has won the A/W recently off just 2lbs lower than today, whilst Craven would probably prefer the ground to be closer to good than it is to firm. Top weight Autumn Festival looks the one to beat on those figures above, but stall 11 of 11 might not be helpful, let's check...

The draw stats are actually a little misleading here, as if we split the field into thirds ie low, mid and high draw, then a high draw looks favourable...

...but stall by stall suggests that whilst stalls 9 & 10 have done well, those drawn 11 or 12 have struggled...

...and the PRB data suggests a lower draw is better...

I'm going to mark that as inconclusive and focus upon the pace data from those races above, as I've got it in my head that this is where the race will be won or lost and those races above have gone as follows...

...with front-running horses definitely the ones to be on and this focus on pace rather than draw is also reflected in the pace/draw heat map...

So, who will lead? Well, we don't actually know, but by looking at how the field have approached their most recent outings...

...you'd probably want to be focusing on the upper half of that table.

Summary

So, we're looking for those in the upper half of the pace chart who should enjoy conditions here and who also come here in some semblance of reasonable form.

Beltane looks like the pace-maker, he gets good to firm ground and has two wins and two places from his last five runs, so plenty of positives there. he hasn't got a great record at Class 4, but that's probably why he's 13/2 from Bet365 (the only book open at 3.50pm Tuesday), but he'd be in my top three for this one, as would On The River, who'll also be up with the pace.

He has won four of his last seven and won here over course and distance two starts ago. He's good at Class 4 and at this venue, he's down in class but would probably prefer the ground to be softer. The doubts over the ground are again reflected in his price, as he too is priced at 13/2 in the early market.

My final one for the frame is probably top weight Autumn Festival, he's also likely to be up with the pace, scored really well on Instant Expert (especially for a place) and is 2lbs lower than his last winning mark. He has made the frame in two of his last three starts, both at Class 3; he's down in class here and a pound lighter than LTO and at 8/1 would be my E/W play.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 15/08/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...and as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 4.00 Nottingham
  • 4.30 Nottingham
  • 7.00 Newcastle
  • 7.15 Chelmsford

Mayfair Gold has green for going, class, course and distance and she runs on one of our free races, so let's see how she might fare in the 7.15 Chelmsford, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ fillies' A/W handicap over a left handed 1m2f on standard polytrack...

Moonspirit won on just her second outing LTO, whilst Mayfair Gold and Hey Lyla both finished second, but none of their other rivals made the frame. After that recent win, Moonspirit now makes a handicap debut, as does fellow 3 yr old Rosa Chinensis who drops back to Class 5 after one run at Class 2.

In fact only the top four on the card are older than 3 yrs old, which means they're disadvantaged here to the tune of some 8lbs, but all of them bar Tahasun do at least take a drop in class here. Smiling Sunflower wears blinkers for the first time here and featured runner Mayfair Gold is hooded for a second time.

Top weight Croachill has won over a similar trip at Doncaster, whilst both Tahasun and Mayfair Gold are former course and distance winners with the latter also a runner-up over track and trip last time out.

That was three weeks ago and most of this field have had at least one run in the last 2.5 to 6.5 weeks, aside from bottom weight Creme Chantilly, who now returns from an 11-week rest following a poor run (last of 11, 12 lengths down) at Leicester, although she did actually won here over a mile on her second start back in October 2022.

That course win can be seen here on Instant Expert, of course...

My main take-away from those graphics above are that whilst this isn't a great race, it could well be a competitive affair and that both Smiling Sunflower and Valkyrian look weak. I'm happy to 'eliminate them from my enquiries' as we continue our analysis. As you'd expect from her position on The Shortlist, Mayfair Gold scores well here.

She is, however, drawn widest of all, so we'll need to consult the Geegeez Draw Analyser to see whether stall 10 is likely to be a help or a hindrance or if it really shouldn't matter...

...and the inference from the above is that the further away from stall 1 a horse is drawn, the progressively worse the chances of winning become, which should be great news for Creme Chantilly, but not good at all for Mayfair Gold. However, closer inspection of the stall by stall data from those races...

...shows that horses drawn higher than stall nine in those races won 20 of 185 races at a rate of 10.81%, which is on par or better with most of the other stalls, although the three lowest drawn horses have won most often overall at a rate of 12.33%. Yet the fact that stall 10 can outperform stall 3 suggests that Chelmsford races are decided by race tactics aka pace more often than they are decided by the draw, especially over trips longer than a mile and our Pace Analyser says that those races above have been won as follows...

Leaders win and place most often, prominent runners win almost as often as leaders and win more often than mid-division/hold-up runners combined, so form a win perspective we want a horse keen to get on with things, whilst for the places, we could do with avoiding runners who tend to be held-up like the already discarded Valkyrian. This is, of course, based on how the field has run in their last few races...

Summary

Moonspirit, Mayfair Gold and Hey Lyla bring the best form to the table and Mayfair Gold scored best on Instant Expert. I wasn't too concerned/interested in the draw, but the pace stats hand the initiative to Moonspirit and whilst there's probably not going to be much between them, I think she'll just have too much for Mayfair Gold.

There were no odds available at 4.25pm Monday, so I'll have to check back later, but I suspect the pick will be around the 9/4 mark which might not offer too much value. Tissue prices about Mayfair Gold suggest that she could be around 11/2, which might actually be worth a small stakes bet; I think she has more chance than 11/2.

Hey Lyla won't be much longer than Mayfair Gold in the betting and that's not long enough for me to have and E/W bet (I like to bet E/W at 8's or longer generally), but if you wanted a bit of a punt based on trust/faith more than anything else, then Creme Chantilly might be better than double-digit odds, especially if she gets away well.

Racing Insights, Monday 14/08/23

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Sorry for the extremely late edition today, I'm up at my caravan near the Lakes and we've had power issues during Sunday and this morning, so I've been trying to put something together without much success. The power is now (10.00am) is currently back on, but we don't know for how long, so I'm going to have to be quick!

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 6.10 Hamilton
  • 7.30 Windsor
  • 7.50 Ballinrobe
  • 8.20 Ballinrobe

The second of the two UK free races looks marginally better than the other, but it's not a great race that awaits us in the 7.30 Windsor, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo flat handicap over 1m3½f  around the figure of eight on good/good to firm ground...

Portoro won last time out and Goblet of Fire seeks to complete a hat-trick today. Fullforward has won just once in fifteen starts with three further places, whilst the other four runners are winless in a combined twenty races, where they have made the frame on just two occasions between them!

Twoforthegutter, Irezumi, Amma Aurelia and Anticipating all take a drop in class here with the latter pair both making a handicap debut three weeks after their last outing when well beaten in the same 1m2f maiden contest here at Windsor.

Portoro won on handicap debut (1m2f, Salisbury) last time out a month ago and now has a second handicap run, but the first iuting for his new yard. Goblet of Fire has been off the track the longest, but he last ran 33 days ago, so there shouldn't be any fitness issues around.

None of the group have won at either track nor distance, although Anna Aureila did make the frame in one of her three runs here (all her three career runs have been here!). The handicapper only rates this field with a 5lb spread from top to bottom and here are the (scarce) Instant Expert stats...

Not much to go on admittedly, but another tick for hat-trick seeking Goblet of Fire with Portoro also of interest, but he'll find it tougher here raised 13lbs for a 9 length win on handicap debut. Elsewhere not much to talk about, but Fullforward has made the frame in 3 of 7 over a similar trip, but is still 5lbs higher than his sole win nine races and ten months ago, but he was second at Lingfield last time out off today's mark. No Diggity was fourth, 2.5 lengths further back, that day and he was a winner over 1m4f at Brighton last Thursday.

Over a trip this long with both left and right handed bends, the draw really shouldn't be a factor here and although at first glance, the stats would suggest low draws fare badly here...

...that data is somewhat skewed by an inexplicably poor set of results from stall 1, which is where Irezumi will now find himself after the two withdrawals, but I doubt that's likely to make or break his race, whereas the pace might!

Pace/tempo is massively important here at Windsor, as this track tends to suit those willing to get on with things early and those 110+ races are no exception...

That data says you can make the frame from anywhere, but for a better chance of leading you need to be prominent or leading, which is a positive for Fullforward, based on how the field have approached their last few outings...

Summary

I think the two LTO winners, Goblet of Fire and Portoro are the best two horses here and bring the best form to the table. Their rivals bring no winning form with them and I see little reason why one of them would be the winner here. Of the two 'form' horses, Goblet of Fire is in the better form and has a better pace profile. He's 'only' up 6lbs for his win with Portoro up almost a stone, so it's Goblet of Fire for me.

We're not getting rich at 11/4, but it seems a fair price to me for a runner who looks best suited. Portoro might be undone by the pace and with most firms still paying three places, the front-running Fastforward might be a viable E/W option at 8/1, especially if he's afforded a soft lead.

Apologies again for the late posting, hopefully it was worth the wait!

Racing Insights, Saturday 12/08/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...but they have only generated the following runners for me to look at...

...although you can't say this combo isn't hot right now! Thankfully, as always, we also have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 2.30 Newmarket
  • 3.00 Haydock
  • 3.40 Newmarket
  • 4.55 Kilbeggan
  • 6.45 Lingfield
  • 7.55 Kilbeggan

...and although it would now make perfect sense to look at Sleven in the 2.30 Newmarket, I'm not that into nursery races if truth be told, so I'm going to have a crack at one of the two Group 3 races above, the Rose of Lancaster Stakes. On your racecards, it's the 3.00 Haydock, a 7-runner, Group 3 flat contest for runners aged 3 and over. The trip is a left-handed 1m2½f on good ground and here's how they'll line up...

All seven raced in Class 1 company last time out in the past eight weeks and all bar King of Conquest have won over a similar trip to this one. Phantom Flight landed a 1m Novice event here on just his third outing back in May 2022, but that makes him the only previous Haydock winner, although Savvy Victory is the only other to have been here before and he was 3rd of 8 in a similar 1m Novice event back in September 2021.

King of Conquest won three on the bounce before finishing 6th in the Wolferton at Ascot and now wears cheekpieces for the first time, whilst it's a yard debut for El Drama who has moved from Roger Varian since his last run. Al Aasy, Savvy Victory and Midnight Mile all won last time out and Al Aasy is two from three whilst Midnight Mile is three from five. Classic Causeway has been last of six and sixth of eight on his two UK starts and although a decent performer in the USA, has now lost nine on the bounce, whilst El Drama is winless in seven and this pair are probably the weakest in the field.

Midnight Mile is the sole filly in the contest, as well as being the only 3 yr old and she receives a very handy 11lbs weight allowance, which should give her a really chance of continuing her fine form she showed at York recently and she scores pretty well on Instant Expert, but not as good as former group 1 runner-up Al Aasy...

...who looks to have ideal conditions ahead of him. El Drama, Phantom Flight and Savvy Victory are a combined 2 from 21 in Class 1 races and I'm not convinced any of them will turn that stat into 3 from 24 here.

The draw stats for this kind of race have suggested those further away from the rail have had the best of it...

...which isn't the best news for Phantom Flight and Al Aasy, but none of these would be out of it purely on the draw, as long as they were up with (or even set) the pace, as those races above have gone like this...

Sadly, there's very little early pace in the race and the outsider Classic Causeway is likely to be allowed a free run in the safe knowledge he's probably not good enough to see the job out...

Behind the leader, the pace scores are much of a muchness with likely favourite Al Aasy having to come past everyone if he wants to win.

Summary

Al Aasy is the 'best' horse in the race and has conditions to suit, but isn't particularly well favoured by pace or draw. That said, Classic Causeway aside, there's not much danger of him being cut adrift early on and his class should see him through. Whether 15/8 represents any value, who knows? I suspect that's about right here.

But, if you're not backing the fav, where are we going? Well, not Classic Causeway or El Drama on form, nor El Drama, Phantom Flight and Savvy Victory on Class 1 results, which leaves us with the 3/1 King of Conquest and the 6/1 Midnight Mile. The former was in great form before finishing sixth in the Wolferton, whilst the latter seemed to have plenty in hand when landing a Listed race by 2.5 lengths at York recently.

I suspect there'll be little between this pair and you could go either way, but at 6/1 with the 11lbs weight allowance, Midnight Mile is my marginal pick as main danger to Al Aasy. Some firms are paying three places here and if she drifts any, she could be a nice E/W prospect.

Racing Insights, Friday 11/08/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded an interesting pair of qualifiers for this Friday...

...whilst I can also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 4.00 Brighton
  • 4.45 Tipperary
  • 5.10 Thirsk
  • 5.40 Haydock
  • 6.15 Haydock
  • 7.15 Wexford

...and I think I'll have a look at Equiano Springs from the H4C) report in the 8.20 Newmarket. He has won 4 of 6 races over 6f on the Rowley course and is 2 from 2 over this course and distance which is a straight 6f on the July course. This Class 4 race has eleven runners aged 3 and over and they'll be racing on good ground...

My initial thoughts were that this could be a shootout between the oldest runner, top weight and featured horse Equiano Springs and the bottom weight 3yo filly Lady Dreamer, but let's see.

Golden Duke and Equiano Springs both won last time out with the latter scoring here over track and trip at this class. Champagne Sarah is 112 in her last three and all bar Rathbone, Tolstoy and Dashing Dick have won at least one of their four outings, but this trio have lost their last 13, 18 and 16 races respectively and that alone is enough for me to say no, thank you!

Of the eight that remain, Prospering and fast-finisher Distinguished Lady both drop down a class for a race that will be the latter's debut for Darryll Holland, having left Alice Haynes' yard in the last month. LTO winner Golden Duke goes the other way and steps up from Class 5.

Ice Cool Harry makes just a second handicap appearance, as does Lady Dreamer and as 3 yr olds they receive a useful 4lbs weight allowance, as do Distinguished Lady, Champagne Sarah (first-time cheekpieces here) and Prospering.

The entire field have raced in the last six weeks already, but all eight under consideration have been rested for at least a fortnight. Equiano Springs is 2 from 2 over 6f on the July course and he's the only previous course winner, but all of his rivals bar Flying Secret have at least one win over today's trip.

Equiano Springs, as you'd expect, dominates Instant Expert...

...but there are some good shout on place form from the likes of Distinguished Lady, Golden Duke and Lady Dreamer...

...and at this stage, I'd expect them to be the biggest danger to the top weight runner, Equiano Springs, whose berthing in stall 2 looks quite favourable, according to our Draw Analyser...

...although there's not a huge deal in it and it's likely to be the pace approach that settles this one...

...with the pace stats and the pace/draw heatmap suggesting that if Equiano is up with the pace, he stands a great chance here yet again...

...so if he's averaging around 3.00 or even better, then he's surely the one to beat...

Summary

Featured horse Equiano Springs has to be the one to beat here and having gone through the analysis above, the only surprise to me is that he can be backed at 4/1. The tissues range from 7/2 to 9/2, so 4's is about right, although I see him as a 3/1 or even shorter bet, so I'm on.

Lady Dreamer is 6/1 second favourite and she's probably right to be there, but I think Champagne Sarah is very interesting at an eachway-backable 8/1. The pace might do away with Distinguished Lady's chances, but if the race falls apart then her 14/1 odds might begin to look very big indeed.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 10/08/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.50 Yarmouth
  • 4.00 Brighton
  • 4.45 Nottingham
  • 6.15 Sandown
  • 7.00 Chepstow
  • 8.05 Sligo

...the best of which (on paper) would appear to be race 11 of the Racing League aka the 7.00 Chepstow, an 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on soft ground...

Gordon Grey is a four-race maiden, but came close to getting off the mark on his handicap debut (2nd crack today) last time out and Feel The Need has failed to win any of his last eight starts after scoring on just his second outing. The other six runners here have at least one win from their last five efforts with Totnes, Miss Dolly Rocker (hcp debut here) and bottom weight I Still Have Faith all winning last time out; the latter actually comes here on a hat-trick whilst Totnes is 3 from 7.

She's Hot is the only runner to have raced at Class 3 last time around, as Shahbaz, Totnes, Feel The Need and Old Smoke are all up from Class 4, whilst Gordon Greym Miss Dolly Rocker And I Still Have Faith are up two classes.

It's a handicap debut for Miss Dolly Rocker and a 2nd handicap run for Gordon Grey, of course, whilst Feel The Need wears a hood for the first time. None of these have been away from the track for much more than a month, so we should have no rustiness, She's Hot is turned back out the quickest, but even she will have had nine days rest.

None of the field have won (or even ran) here at Chepstow before, but Totnes, Miss Dolly Rocker and I Still Have Faith have all won over today's trip, even if Totnes did it on the A/W.

Sadly, our free feature, Instant Expert, doesn't have much relevant data, but this is what we do have under expected conditions...

None of the field have won at this grade before, so the rise in class most face might not be too relevant here and I think we might get a better picture if we look at their records in a lower grade...

...where Totnes looks strong albeit on A/W form. Shahbaz hasn't won any of his last four, but remains 5lbs above his last winning mark, although he was a runner-up only beaten by a neck off this mark in his last race. Mind you, he won't have Frankie Dettori driving him home today, which makes life tougher. Gordon Grey, however, is eased 3lbs despite only going down late by three quarters of a length a fortnight ago, which might give him a chance here. He's drawn relatively low in stall 3, but it would appear that stall 5 and higher is the place to be...

...with those races above tending to be a bit of a struggle for hold-up horses...

...and that doesn't bode well for a few of this field, especially Feel The Need and I Still Have Faith, if their past four outings are anything to go by...

...making our pace/draw heat map looks like this...

Summary

On form, it was Totnes, Miss Dolly Rocker, and I Still Have Faith who appeared to be the pick of the pack, Totnes, I Still Have Faith and possibly She's Hot were the takeaways from Instant Expert. I Still Have Faith, Miss Dolly Rocker, Shahbaz and She's Hot seem best favoured by the draw, whilst the pace/draw heat map looked like better news for Miss Dolly Rocker, Shahbaz and She's Hot.

As is often the case with the totting-up procedure, you get the same names mentioned over and over and five horses are listed above, so I'm going to rule Feel The Need, Gordon Grey and Old Smoke out of the running. The issue now is that any of the five remaining could go on and win, but there's no stand-out candidate.

The 4pm market had my five as follows...

...and the most obvious bet for me would be to back She's Hot on an Each Way basis. She's back up in trip (was a runner-up the last time she tackled 1m2f) and she's not stepping up in class.

Shahbaz looks short at 3/1 with only 1 win in 10, but a 60% place strike rate, he's more of a placer than a winner for me. Totnes is 3 from 4 on the A/W, but his Flat form reads 8433 (placed just once).

I Still Have Faith could be the one to back as the winner, he's in great form, gets weight all round, has a good jockey on board, is drawn higher enough, but might need to press on sooner, whilst Miss Dolly Rocker might also surprise one or two here. She has been more consistent than spectacular, but won last time out on soft ground, gets the trip and is drawn in stall 6. She might get an easy lead and if that happens, she's not a bad option for the places, if I could get better than 13/2.

Shortly after publishing the post, 9/1 became available about Miss Dolly Rocker, so a small E/W bet is an option.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 09/08/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.20 Pontefract
  • 3.30 Brighton
  • 3.50 Pontefract
  • 6.40 Sligo
  • 7.50 Yarmouth

...whilst my own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following...

...and the 'best' of those races above appears to be the stayers' handicap at Ponty, the 3.50 Pontefract. it's an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left handed 2m1 on good ground...

None of trhese even managed to make the frame last time out, which is a little disconcerting, but all bar Ashington have won at least once in their last five starts and he does at least drop down a level here, whilst the bottom two on the card, Giovanni Change and Ironopolis are both down two classes.

Ironopolis is also the sole 3yo in the field, so he'll get a 13lb weight allowance here, but he'll probably need it as I see him as the weakest runner in the field. We've no new equipment being used and no yard movements and all of them have raced in the last 11-45 days, so we should have no fitness issues either.

Only Yorkindness and Flint Hill have won over this trip before and they've done it here at Pontefract, whilst Champagne City (2m2f), Carrigillihy (1m4f) and Giovanni Change (2m5½f) have also all won at this venue.

Instant Expert suggests that Champagne City should have conditions to suit, but that Carrigillihy is the track specialist...

...but his record at class 4 looks almost as poor as Flint Hill's. The latter also hasn't fared well on good ground with El Borracho also having issues winning on good.

The draw stats would initially tend to suggest that those drawn lowest have an advantage, but (i) it's a very small sample size, (ii) the data is skewed by stall 1 winning nearly a third of the races in the sample and (iii) I'm really not convinced the draw can make you lose an 8-runner race over 2m1f, but here's the data anyway...

...and I suspect that pace might have a bigger bearing on the result. That small sample of races above have been won as follows...

...suggesting those racing further forward have just put targets on their backs and that the hold-up horses have been left with too much to do, so it we could get a runner with an average pace score around the 2.00 mark, we might have something, so so let's check the field's most recent outings...

...which doesn't really clarify the issue too much, but if we ignore Carrigillihy's last effort where he led and faded badly, he does tend to run to that 2.00/mid-division position.

Summary

Carrigillihy's record around this track is excellent and he's probably got the ideal pace profile to win here again, but he's a 5/2 favourite who has a career record of 1 win and 1 place from 14 attempts at Class 4. He's also 0 from 7 beyond his preferred trip of 1m4f (where he is 5 from 17) and is up in trip here.

I suspect he's going to be there or thereabouts and could well win, but 5/2 is way too short for my liking. I did actually like El Borracho initially, but he's likely to do too much too soon and whilst he could be good for a place, 5/1 isn't E/W territory for me. The one who might well outrun his odds and make the frame as an E/W possible is the 11/1 outsider Champagne City. Conditions look ideal for him and he's only 2lbs higher than when winning here over 2m2f back in April.

I won't be digging too deeply into my pockets for the bet, but I'd hope for a decent effort from him.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 08/08/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with one of more obvious immediate interest than the other, whilst as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 4.35 Catterick
  • 6.00 Roscommon
  • 6.30 Roscommon
  • 8.20 Chelmsford

...from which I think I'll check out Temper trap in the 6.10 Ripon, as Sea Appeal looks mighty short in a 4-runner contest! The 6.10 Ripon is a 7-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ flat handicap for apprentice jockeys over a right-handed mile on soft ground...

Featured horse Temper Trap is second widest drawn and top weight of the eight runners and after winning this race last year is the only course and distance winner in the field. None of the others have won at Ripon before, but all bar Extinction (2nd run in a handicap today), Antagonize and Jewel of Kabeir have all won over today's trip elsewhere.

How Bizarre and fast finisher Chagall both come here off the back of wins, whilst Temper Trap comes in search of a quick-fire hat-trick inside 12 days, for which he's penalised 5lbs. Of the other four runners, only Bay Dream Beleiver has win in his most recent form line.

None of the field should be too rusty, as Grangeclare View's 8-week break is the longest any of these have been off the track since their last run and Temper Trap won at Hamilton as recently as Saturday evening! Extinction, Grangeclare View and Bay Dream believer all drop a class, which is useful especially for the latter who was a runner-up last time out.

It's an apprentice jockeys' race with five of the riders using claims of 3 to 10lbs, but both Temper Trap and Chagall will be ridden by non-claimers with a bit more experience, which might be vital here.

Temper Trap comes from The Shortlist, so you'd be well within your rights to expect him to score well on Instant Expert...

...and he certainly doesn't disappoint. He looks head and shoulders above the field here, despite a 5lb rise in weight. Mind you Chagall is some 10lbs higher than his last flat win almost three years ago, although he is only 3lbs higher than when winning on the A/W at Lingfield three weeks ago and he's got good place stats, especially on soft ground as does How Bizarre whose place form looks solid if unspectacular, although it's Antagonize's place numbers that look second best to Temper Trap.

One of the form horses, Bay Dream Believer has bagged stall number 1, whilst our featured runner, Temper Trap is out in box 7 and if previous similar past contests are anything to go by, then the former might have an advantage over the latter...

...as the lower half of the draw seems to have much better results. The above races tended to be won by those runners racing most prominently with prominent/leaders winning 50% more often than mid-div/hold-up types, which based on the field's most recent efforts doesn't look such good news for Bay Dream Believer...

Summary

It's not a great race, really, but it's difficult to look beyond Temper Trap. The problem is, that he looks an obvious pick and the bookies are onto it and he's 7/4 across the board. I think he wins this again here, but I'm not going gung-ho at those odds, I thought he might have been a bit longer.

Chagall (9/2), Bay Dream Believer (5/1) and How Bizarre (11/2) all come here in good nick, but fall down in different areas and I wouldn't see any of them beating the fav. All three are too short for an E/W punt, but you can get 17/2 about Antagonize and if he runs like he did last time out, then he could well make the frame if the form horses don't fire.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 07/08/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.33 Cork
  • 4.53 Cork
  • 5.20 Ayr
  • 5.28 Cork
  • 7.30 Windsor

Of the two UK races above, I suspect the last race on the list will depend more on pace than the other and with tricky underfoot conditions expected, the 7.30 Windsor might well be an interesting contest. It's a 15-runner (more than I'm generally comfortable with!), Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over straight 6f on heavy ground...

As there are far more runners than I want to deal with, I'm going to be quite brutal and quickly eliminate runners, based initially on PACE and the INSTANT EXPERT data, as this is how heavy groiund races at Windsor at 5f to 7f have panned out...

.with our field's last four runs looking like this...

Their soft to heavy ground handicap stats look like this...

And whilst I'm aware of the obvious risk of overlooking a possible bet, I'm not even considering those with two or more hold-up runs in their last four outings and I'm removing Cuban Breeze for his soft/heavy ground form, making my new racecard look like this...

Lequinto, Indian Creak and Count Otto all won last time out with the latter coming here on a hat-trick, but Antiphon and Crazy Luck are both on losing runs of 6 and 9 races.

All bar Lethal Nymph and Sterling Knight are stepping up in class with Lequinto, Count Otto and The Cruising Lord up two classes with Lequinto wearing first time blinkers.

All nine have won over today's trip before with all bar Lethal Nymph, Crazy Luck and The Cruising Lord having scored over course and distance. We've no 3 yr olds here, so no age-related weight allowances to consider and all of them have raced in the last six weeks with Sterling Knight having rested for just two days and Crazy Luck for six.

Instant Expert says...

...that Count Otto might well struggle at Class 2 and hasn't fared particularly well here at Windsor and that he and The Cruising Lord look the weakest on the above stats. And as it's my aim to quickly decimate the field into a small number of possible E/W bets, I'm removing both from my calculations now. This still leaves me with seven runners strung across the track in stalls, 1, 3, 4, 7, 11, 13, 14 and over a straight 6f, you'd be forgiven for think that there shouldn't be much advantage to the draw, but it's not quite the case here as those drawn 6 and above do seem to have better results...

...which isn't particularly good news for Lequinto, Lethal Nymph and/or Antiphon, but their fate might not yet be sealed, they might still be in with a shout as we revisit the pace data from those 5-6f Windsor races used for the draw stats...

...where we're looking for those with the highest average pace score from this bunch...

Anything below 2.75 probably isn't going to be advanced enough here, especially when I've already discarded this trio...

...so it's goodbye to Lequinto and Crazy Luck here.

Summary

I have very quickly reduced the field to four runners that I may (or may not) now fancy to back win or E/W for the four places available from the bookies, of whom only Hills had prices when I wrote the piece.

Antiphon is possibly better than the 16/1 ticket might suggest. he won here over 5f on soft ground in May off today's mark and was a runner-up over course and distance six weeks ago off the same mark and now has a 7lb claimer on board. Could well make the frame here.

Lethal Nymph was a runner-up over course and distance here last time out and has finished 112 in his last three runs at Class 2. he's unproven/untested on anything softer than good to soft, so there's an elemEnt of trust involved if you want to back him at 17/2. If he takes to the heavy ground, he'd be a good E/W chance too, but I think I'd want a bigger price on a horse trying these conditions for a first time.

Indian Creak won here over course and distance on soft ground back in May and won well at Epsom last time out, but is only raised a pound for that run. He made the frame on heavy ground at Thirsk in the race follOwing his C&D success and could go well again here. I do like his chances of a top four finish and whilst not exactly generous, 17/2 isn't a bad price.

Haymaker is probably the one I like best of the four. A central draw gives him the scope to go with whoever sets the pace, the underfoot conditions shouldn't bother him and he's got a top jockey on board. He's the current 11/2 favourite which looks a little mean/short, but if pushed to pick a winner, he'd be the one. Ideally he'd drift from that price and I could back him E/W.

Racing Insights, Saturday 05/08/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

...plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 2.05 Newmarket
  • 3.25 Thirsk
  • 3.35 Goodwood
  • 5.55 Galway
  • 6.45 Lingfield
  • 7.45 Lingfield

Once again the Goodwood contest has far too many (28!) runners for my liking, so let's head to North Yorkshire for the 3.25 Thirsk, a 10-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 7f on soft ground...

No LTO winners on show today and only top-weight Woven made the frame last time around. He did, however, win four starts ago and only The Turpinator, maywake and bottom weight Snash come here on a run of seven (or more!) consecutive defeats.

Snash is trained by Tim Easterby who has won this race for the last two years with last year's winner, Danzan also here to defend the crown under last year's winning jockey, which is interesting on Trainer/Jockey combo day!

Snash hasn't won for over a year now (9 races) and despite a 2 from 22 record on turf (yet 2/2 on AW), he's up in class here, whilst four of the top five in the weights (Heat of the Moment, Autumn Festival, Harswell Duke and The Turpinator) all drop down a grade.

Harswell Duke looks like he's making a debut for a new yard, but that's not the case, it's just a licence name modification from his last run 105 days ago, making him the one most likely to be a bit rusty. Heat of the Moment has been off for twelve weeks, but the remainder have all raced in the last two to five weeks or so.

Broken Spear and Snash are both former Thirsk winners over 5f and 6f respectively, whilst Snash's stablemate Danzan is the only course and distance winner, having won this race last year and also just over six weeks ago. Elsewhere, all bar Heat of the Moment, Harswell Duke and Snash have managed at least one win at this trip.

Instant Expert says that all bar Snash have had a run on soft ground already and that five of them have won on soft, whilst there are five (not all the same runners) previous Class 3 Flat winners on show. A few clicks of the mouse will also reveal a pair of former Class 2 successes for Autumn Festival and Harswell Duke...

My immediate concerns would be about Woven (class/trip), Broken Spear (going/class/trip), last year's winner Danzan (going/class/trip), Maywake (trip) and Snash (trip).  Some of this datat is a little surprising to me, as I had it in my head that Woven and Maywake were better than the above graphic might suggest.

None of the field are any more than 5lbs higher than their last winning mark, but The Turpinator and Snash are 2lbs and 11lbs lower than their last flat win. Autumn Festival looks well set on both going and distance and we know Danzan's best efforts have been over course and distance, but before I rule any of these in or out, I want to check the place stats...

...which pretty much backs up my thoughts that Woven and Maywake weren't as bad as they first looked, but without any green at all on the pace stats, it's time for me to cut Heat of the Moment, Broken Spear and Snash from the reckoning, leaving me with seven to consider as I turn my attention to the draw on this left-handed, soft ground 7f. Our Draw Analyser says that at this trip and a mile, the higher drawn horses have fared best...

...especially those drawn is stalls 7 or higher...

...which could bode well for Danzan, Razeyna and Woven in 7, 8 & 9. Those races above have been won most often by horses setting the pace and the further back a horse has run, the lower the success rate, although only hold-up horses have struggled to make the frame...

This represents a complete turn about for the highly-drawn Razeyna and Woven, as they're not usually ones to force the pace of a race, based on recent evidence...

...but it's another tick for last year's winner Danzan, despite him still being rated some 7lbs higher than last year. I'm not sure what happened to Maywake on his last outing, as his usual average pace score is around the 3.50 mark and I think he'll want to be close to the front here.

Summary

I don't think Danzan is the horse he was last year, but the data above keeps pushing him my way. I think the likes of Maywake, Woven and Razeyna are better horses than Danzan and I'm sure that at least one will beat last year's winner, but at 16/1 (only Hills were open at 4.30pm) Danzan might not be the worst E/W bet I've placed this week! I know we're making a leap of faith, but horse, trainer and jockey all go well here, so who knows?

As for a winner, I do like Maywake, Woven and Razeyna, but I fear the latter pair are going to get undone by their hold-up approach, despite having great draws, so it's Maywake at 9/2 for me, whilst it's not beyond the realms of possibilities that Autumn Festival might try to win this from the front and if I can get 10's or better, that could also be an E/W option.

 

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