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Racing Insights, Saturday 29/07/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.30 Gowran Park
  • 3.00 Ascot
  • 3.02 Gowran Park
  • 4.10 Newmarket
  • 7.15 Salisbury
  • 8.30 Windsor

I do like to try and 'marry up' our free feature with the daily race list, but the 3.00 Ascot featuring Star of Orion from the TJC Report is a 26-runner affair and I just don't get involved in such races, so I'm turning my attentions to the 4.10 Newmarket, a 10-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to soft ground...

Of the ten, only Coco Bear comes here after win and he has actually won his last three, but hasn't been seen for eleven weeks, whilst all his rivals have raced in the past four weeks. Bernardo O'Reilly was in action on Thursday of this week, whilst Chairmanoftheboard ran as recently as last Friday, when a runner-up at a higher grade, making him the only runner, other than Coco Bear, to be placed last time around.

Chairmanoftheboard isn't the only one dropping in from Class 2, though, as the other two runners, Silver Samurai and Hierarchy, from the top three in the weights both make the same step down. Three (Tiger Crusade, Spring Bloom & bottom weight Sir Oliver) ran at this level last time out, but Bernardo O'Reilly, Justcallmepete, Priscilla's Wish and the returning Coco Bear all step up from Class 4.

Spring Bloom is the only one yet to win at this trip, but only Chairmanoftheboard has won here at Newmarket, courtesy of a course and distance success just over three years ago and he has ditched his usual cheekpieces here but wears a visor for only the second time and the first since May 2019 some 31 races ago!

Instant Expert suggests that good to soft ground might not be the ideal metier for him from a win perspective, but he wouldn't want it any quicker than this and the same report shows how poor Spring Bloom's record is at this trip...

Spring Bloom has had thirteen attempts at winning over 6f on turf, which isn't very good at all, but he does have a 64% place strike rate on the Flat over his career and this is reflected in the place stats below...

Chairmanoftheboard's record at Class 3 is a little surprising, as he has made the frame in 8 of 17 runs at Class 2, so he's certainly not out of his depth here and aside from Bernardo O'Reilly not seeming to run well here, there aren't too many grounds for concern about those place records above.

Somewhat surprisingly, there does seem to be a bit of a bias towards those drawn lowest in previous similar contests...

...but over a straight 6f on what should be one of the best tracks in the country, I still think that any advantage wouldn't be that pronounced and that we should read more into how those races above have been won and our pace analyser says that half of those who lead go on to make the frame and that 1 in 5 leaders win with the general advice being to race as far forward as you can...

...which based on recent outings would tend to put the likes of Silver Samurai and Bernardo O'Reilly at a disadvantage...

...but Justcallmepete could relish the opportunity of a potential soft lead from a relatively low draw.

Summary

For me, Chairmanoftheboard and Coco Bear are the best two horses in the race with me preferring the former. He ran well last time out and now drops in class, whilst the latter is up in class and hasn't raced for eleven weeks, although he did win his last three races, all on soft ground. He actually won three starts ago after a six-month lay-off, so this recent break might not make any difference, but up in class mon a career-high mark might just stop Coco Bear from beating Chairmanoftheboard.

As for a placer or E/W bet, Spring Bloom caught the eye on Instant Expert but he does blow hot and cold, whilst front-runner Justcallmepete might prove hard to catch in a race with no other real pace.

No odds on this one at 3.30pm Friday, so I'll have to revisit this later.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 28/07/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have still produced a couple of qualifiers...

...including Challet, whose record at York over the last couple of years reads 113337.

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.35 Thirsk
  • 3.00 Ascot
  • 4.55 Thirsk
  • 5.00 York
  • 5.22 Cork
  • 5.57 Cork

I'm not too enthused by either H4C race nor the free list, but with the recent poor weather affecting the going across the country, I think I'll look for a race where trip and going are at the end of the spectrum, so let's try the 4.45 Ascot, which is an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a straight 5f on soft ground, that should be better in places...

Glamorous Breeze and Cruise both won last time out and both are two from three, although the former fared better than the latter on their penultimate runs and she also drops in class here, as do Lil Guff, Cuban Breeze and Woolhampton, but bottom weight Sarah's Verse is up a level here. Cuban Breeze is winless for almost a year now, losing 17 on the bounce, but has made the frame in 5 of her last six.

There's nothing new/different to report on this field and all of them have had a run in the last month, with Cuban Breeze turned back out just a week after finishing as runner-up at Newmarket. She's the only one of this bunch to have already won here at Ascot, having scored over course and distance just over a year ago off a mark 3lbs lower than today. Only Origintrail, Woolhampton and Holy Fire have yet to win over this minimum distance.

Four of the field have previously tackled soft ground, with two going on to win and four of these runners have won at this grade before, with only Holy Fire yet to run at Class 4 on turf, according to Instant Expert...

Lil Guff and Sarah's Verse don't seem to mind the soft ground, but most of Cuban Breeze's best form has been on Good to Firm ground (as it normally is for this meeting!) or on the tapeta at Wolverhampton. Glamorous Breeze has consistently made the frame at both class (8 from 13) and trip (17 from 27) and she has 11 top 3 finishes from 13 races over 5f at Class 4.

We don't have much data for similar past contests here at Ascot, so I've tweaked the parameters slightly to try to see if the draw might affect Glamorous Breeze's chances out in stall 8 of 8...

...but I don't think the draw will be a deciding factor. Yeah, Cuban Breeze will be grateful to have got stall 1, which has produced a freakishly large number of winners, probably due to having the rail there to keep them straight, but aside from that, there doesn't seem to be a huge bias. Cuban Breeze hasn't won for some time, but makes the frame pretty often and that consistency allied to the 'plum' draw will make her popular and I suspect that, based on her last few outings, she's likely to be up with the pace, whilst Sarah's Verse will have to come flying late on, if she's to win here...

The pace stats here, however, suggest that coming from the back wouldn't be the best move and that those furthest forward would have the best chance...

Summary

On the face of it, Cuban Breeze should be the one to beat. She has been running consistently well of late, seems to have the best of the draw and is likely to be up with the pace. Sadly, as the one to beat, she seems to do just that ie get beat! She's on a 17-race losing streak and is still only 2lbs lower than her last win and runs off the same mark as her last four runs/losses, so I'm now expecting it to be another 'close, but no cigar' run for her.

She's good for the frame and at 13/2 with Hills at 3.15pm, could be one for a place/EW bet, but for the win I prefer Glamorous Breeze for her consistency at this class/trip and she comes here in great form and I think she can land her third win in four starts. She's currently 9/2 which is about right, I'd say and I'd guess the 1-2-3 would be completed by Woolhampton or Lil Guff. Neither are long enough at 11/2 for me to go E/W and if pushed, I prefer the latter of the two.

As for our 4/1 favourite Cruise, her four races on turf have ended 4686 and I'd rather back her the next time she's on the tapeta.

Racing Insights, Thursday 27/07/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 2.20 Worcester
  • 2.30 Doncaster
  • 3.15 Sandown
  • 6.52 Leopardstown
  • 8.30 Yarmouth
  • 8.45 Newbury

The Sandown race is a Listed contest and is clearly the 'best' on the list, but 2yo fillies really aren't my thing, so let's check out the UK's most valuable race of the day, the final contest in the evening's Racing League fixture and the penultimate of our free races, the 8.30 Yarmouth, which is a 13-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good to soft ground...

This looks a tricky/competitive contest and I'm sure you'll be able to make a case for quite a few of these. The upside of this is that there shouldn't be any short prices and we might find a nice E/W bet for ourselves, especially with the bookies paying four places...

Andaleep won last time out, Elzaam Blue comes here on a hat-trick and Eagles Way has won his last four! Like A Tiger has won two of his last three, as has Cumulonimbus who has four wins and two places from his last seven outings.

These five are the 'form horses' here, but Certain Lad, Dark Pine, Baryshnikov, Ace Rothstein and Aqwaam all come here on fairly lengthy losing streaks, having lost their last 8, 12, 11, 11 and 7 races respectively. In fact, their recent form in comparison with the other five I named is so bad that I'm just going to omit them from my considerations immediately, leaving my card looking like this...

This makes the field much more manageable with just eight runners to consider, as I look at class movements. Five of the eight are stepping up in class here with Eagle's Way and Regal Empire up one class, Andaleep and Bringbackmemories are both up two levels and it's a triple step up for hat-trick seeking Elzaam Blue, which might make life tough.

Cumulonimbus and Old Port both raced at Class 2 last time out with the former having won and placed in his last two Class 2 starts, whilst Like A Tiger actually drops down from Listed class to run in just his second handicap contest, having won on handicap debut two starts ago. That win was over today's trip and of my eight under consideration, only Old Port, Regal Empire and Elzaam Blue have yet to score at this distance. Only Cumulonimbus has won here at Yarmouth, making all to score over course and distance on good to soft ground back in September 2022 at the start of his seven-race run of form I mentioned earlier.

Eagle's Way now carries top weight of those I'm still considering and his chances of a fifth win on the bounce might be affected by the fact that he hasn't raced for just over ten months, although he did win at Brighton on his seasonal reappearance at last July after an eight month absence, so he might well be one of those who goes well fresh. His rivals, however, have all raced in the last four weeks apart from Like A Tiger who has had twelve weeks' rest. Based on the above and on recent form, Old Port looks the weakest of the octet, so I'm bidding him goodbye before we even look at feature of the day, Instant Expert...

Eagle's Way is 2 from 2 on good ground and 2 from 2 on good to firm, but hasn't raced on good to soft and was only 8th of 15 when beaten by 9 lengths over 7f on soft ground when making his debut in October 2021. He makes a Class 2 debut after 2 wins at Class 3 and 2 at Class 5, but will certainly get the trip. Cumulonimbus has a line of green albeit off a small number of relevant races, but Andaleep is proven at this trip. Bringbackmemories looks the weakest on those win stats, particularly with 7 defeats from 8 at this trip. Perhaps, his place stats will make him look better...

And, in fairness, they do. Those numbers suggest he could still be in contention to make the frame, but I've already decided that I won't be backing him to win this one. He's drawn widest of the seven and is second widest of the entire field and although we don't have a stack of data (which is why I've tweaked the parameters a touch) about similar past contests, I'd say out wide is not the place to be here...

...from either a win or a place perspective and the PRB3 figures suggest those drawn 3 to 10 would have the best chances here...

...which keeps the other six runners in with a shout. Those 30+ races I used for the draw stats have, like many a Yarmouth race, tended to be won by those setting or closely tracking the pace...

...which, on the evidence of the runners' last four outings, would appear to suit Cumulonimbus, Eagle's Way and Elzaam Blue more than the others...

...and the pace/draw heat map looks like this...

Summary

I've used a process of elimination up to the draw stats, which I think eliminate Bringbackmemories from my enquiries, a decision backed up by his pace stats and the subsequent heat map. The heat map also suggests that Like A Tiger might struggle here, but if Elzaam Blue races like he did two, three and four starts ago, he could still be in with a shout.

Of those above, i think Regal Empire is the weakest and he was beaten in a lower grade last time out, so i wouldn't be backing him here. I also won't back Bringbackmemories or Like A Tiger to win this, although the latter clearly has ability and was the 9/2 favourite at 4.45pm on Wednesday. I suspect he'll be there or thereabouts despite my misgivings, but he's too short for to consider a win or an E/W bet.

This leaves me with Andaleep, Eagle's Way, Cumulonimbus and Elzaam Blue and with the bookies paying four places, they'd be the four I'd want to consider from at least an E/W perspective. Cumulonimbus has ticked most boxes all the way through the process and for me, he's the one to beat and can be backed at 13/2, which is quite reasonable.

Of the other three E/W possibles, Eagle's Way and Andaleep are both priced at or above my nominal 8/1 preferred price, so a pair of small E/W bets might be the answer there, but Elzaam Blue would be too short for those purposes at 6/1.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 26/07/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.30 Bath
  • 5.40 Lingfield
  • 5.55 Bath
  • 6.20 Naas
  • 8.10 Sandown

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated plenty of runners from a couple of in-form yards and have also picked out a trainer with a good long-term track record...

 

It's a pretty poor day of racing if truth be told with 5 UK courses holding 31 races with none rated any higher than Class 4. Thankfully one of those appears on our list of free races, so let's have a look at the 8.10 Sandown, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good ground...

A pretty inexperienced bunch here, as you might expect from a group of 3 yr olds. They've raced a total of 46 times so far, making the frame on 14 occasions (30.4%) and winning 7 times (15.2%). Gozo, Stage Show and Zodiac Star are still maidens after 6, 6 and 4 attempts respectively, from which Stage Show has never even made the frame.

Conversely, Morcar won last time out and Gallant Lion comes in search of a hat-trick after wins at Brighton and Newbury in the past month. Two of the maidens, Zodiac Star & Gozo should be assisted by dropping down towo classes here, the third maiden, Stage Show, actually steps up a grade here, as do our two LTO winners, Morcar and Gallant Lion.

Dumfires drops down a class for what will be his second handicap run, as it will also be for Golspie and LTO winner Morcar, whilst Zodiac Star makes a handicap debut here and wears a hood for the first time, whilst Golspie sports cheekpieces for the first time.

Six of the nine runners have already won at least one race (only Gallant Lion has won twice!), but none have won here at Sandown before (Dancing In Paris & Stage Show are the only ones to have raced here), but both of Gallant Lion's victories have been over today's trip, as was Morcar's success LTO.

Dumfries might well need a run after a break of almost 16 weeks, but the remainder of the field have all seen action in the last six weeks with both Gozo and Gallant Lion having raced in the last fortnight. In addition to the other facts, Instant Expert tells us that six of the field have raced on good ground before, generating two wins, whilst Golspie is the only one of the six previous Class 4 flat runners to have won at this grade...

None of these have really raced enough to give too many causes for concern, but the fact that Stage Show has yet to make the frame after six efforts has to be noted. Dancing In Paris has a weak record at Class 4, but does like good ground and the vast majority of the field should be fine with the trip. Dancing In Paris is now 9lbs higher than his last win and is only rated 1lb lower than his last run, which saw him beaten by more than ten lengths, so that's got to raise doubts here. Morcar and Gallant Lion are up 8lbs and 7lbs respectively for their LTO wins, but both (especially Morcar) won relatively comfortably, so might not yet be anchored by the weight.

It would be easy to assume from the draw sectors, that those drawn highest would have a distinct advantage here...

...but I'd temper those thoughts by (a) pointing to the place stats, which are pretty consistent across the board, (b) showing you the stall-by-stall data, which looks a bit skewed in places and (c) reproducing the PRB3 data...

There may well be a bit of a flat spot around the data for stalls 4 & 5 that is overcompensated by the number of wins from stalls 6 & 7, but I'm not entirely convinced the draw is going to make or break a runner's chances here over 1m2f on good ground. That can't necessarily be said for race/race tactics, as there's a clear template for how to win such races...

...and that involves getting out quickly and leading. The way this field have raced in their relatively short careers would tend to suggest that Gallant Lion might struggle to land the hat-trick here...

Summary

Despite the pace chart above, I do think that the LTO winners Gallant Lion and Morcar are the horses to beat here and it's no surprise to see them installed as early (3.40pm) 3/1 joint favourites. Morcar won far more comfortably than Gallant Lion last time out and does appear to have a better pace profile, so if pushed to pick between the two, I'd be looking for Morcar to just edge Gallant Lion out.

Referring back to the pace chart, all Band of Steel's decent efforts have been on the A/W, he has shown little on turf and Dancing In Paris is too high in the weights, as I suggested earlier. Zodiac Star, however, might well improve for a step up in trip and he is down two classes here and might well be of E/W interest, especially as he's effectively 4lbs lower than LTO. You can get 10/1 about him at the moment and that might not be a bad shout. Similar applies to Golspie at 14's, he won on his debut and is very lightly raced. There's a touch of the unknowns about him, but he wouldn't have to do too much to get involved here in what looks a mediocre field.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 25/07/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Al Zaraqaan and Hiconic would be of obvious immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.20 Southwell
  • 6.38 Ballinrobe
  • 7.50 Chelmsford
  • 8.50 Chelmsford

The two at the top of The Shortlist are both likely to go off quite short in small field contests (4 of Southwell's 6 races have less than 7 runners!), so we'll head to Essex for the 7.50 Chelmsford, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo+, A/W handicap over a left handed 1m2f on standard to slow polytrack...

None of these managed to win any of their last two races, but Wild Hurricane and Totnes made the frame last time out whilst Boasty, One For The frog, Mayfair Gold, Semser and The Bay Warrior were all successful three starts ago.

Semser, Jenson Benson, Nasim, Marion's Boy and Wadacre Gomez all step up a class here, whilst The Bay Warrior makes a double step up, which might cause him issues after a poor Class 6 run over course and distance last time out. Likely favourite Totnes, however, was third in a Class 3 contest on her most recent start. She's also one of just two 3yos in the race and as such, gets a handy 9lbs weight allowance, as does Wadacre Gomez.

Wild Hurricane makes just a second appearance in handicap company and wears cheekpieces for the first time whilst it's a debut in a hood for Mayfair Gold, who like Tarbaan, Boasty, Semser, Jenson Benson and The Bay Warrior, is a former course and distance winner. Of the other six runners, Nasim has won here over a mile, whilst Marion/s Boy and Wadacre Gomez have been scored over 1m2f at Lingfield and Newcastle respectively.

Jenson Benson returns from almost eleven weeks off and The Bay Warrior hasn't raced for almost fourteen weeks, but the other ten have all been seen since the start of June with Nasim and Wadacre Gomez having run just a fortnight ago.

In addition to the course/distance wins mentioned above, Instant Expert advises us that field doesn't have a particularly good record on standard to slow A/W and that only five of them have a Class 4 A/W win...

I'd say that Tarbaan edges that, but despite the swathe of red, there aren't too many causes for concern, aside from Marion's Boy only winning 1 of 12 at this level, which is a worry, although it looks like he has made the frame in 3 of his 11 defeats...

Our Draw Analyser says that similar 1m2f contests at Chelmsford haven't really displayed much of a stalls bias...

...because if we said that the figures for stalls 2 & 9 were outliers, then there's really not a great deal of difference along the line, so that must mean that pace is the key here, as it often is at Chelmsford. Shorter trips here have certainly favoured those setting the tempo, but let's see how those races above have panned out via our Pace Analyser...

...and whilst the effect of leading isn't quite a pronounced over this trip, you'd certainly rather be on a front runner than a hold-up type, especially from a place perspective. And if this field's last few runs are anything to go by, then the likely favourite Totnes is going to have her work cut out from the back of the pack...

Summary

Totnes is indeed the early (3.30pm) favourite at a fairly miserly 5/2 with the only open book at Hills. She's got ability, has a handy weight allowance and is running well, but 5/2 is too short for me about a runner destined to have to pass most of her rivals late on if she's to win. I also liked Tarbaan from Instant Expert, he's a former course and distance winner, but concedes weight all round and will also have to pass most of the field if he was to win. He'd make an ideal E/W bet, but not at 6/1!

So, for an E/W bet, i want to focus on the top 5 on the pace chart ie all those with an average score in excess of 2.00 and Boasty leads the way. He's a three-time course and distance, his last six A/W runs have seen him finish 223112. His place stats on Instant Expert were excellent, he'll set the pace here and at 10/1, looks a good E/W option.

Wadacre Gomez started out well, but has been heavily beaten in his last two outings and I'd prefer to see him show some improvement before I put any money on him. Wild Hurricane is unexposed and has finished 332 in his three A/W starts and would be a contender here. He's the 4/1 second favourite, so that's too short for an E/W bet, but he might actually go on and win this with the addition of cheekpieces.

And finally, we have Semser, who won here over course and distance in May before finishing as a runner-up at Goodwood four weeks later. He was somewhat disappointing at Lingfield next/last time out, but he is a former course and distance winner and if things fall right for him, he too could be an E/W option at 12/1, especially with the bookies paying four places here in what looks a decent/competitive race for Class 4.

 

 

Racing Insights, Monday 24/07/23

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Sorry for being later than usual this evening, I've spent much of my weekend helping my travel clients affected by the terrible fires on Rhodes (yes, I'm a travel agent away from the racing, so if you need a holiday, I'm your man!), but I'm back with you all now with a preview for Monday.

The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 6.10 Ballinrobe
  • 7.30 Beverley
  • 8.20 Windsor
  • 8.30 Beverley

Of the three UK free races, the first seems to have biggest spread of pace based on the field's last four runs, as this is how the runners in the 7.30 Beverley have approached their most recent contests...

The race itself is a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-hand 7½f on soft ground that is already heavy in places and here's how they'll line up...

Revoquable won here over course and distance last time out, albeit on good to firm ground, but it does mean that he's the only one coming here off the back of a win. Stoney Lane has also won here over course and distance, whilst How Bizarre has won over 1m½f on this track. None of the other have won at either trip nor track.

All Dunn makes a yard debut for Harriet Bethell less than a fortnight after a good runner-up finish at Wolverhampton on his final run for Jamie Osborne and aside from Revoquable's win LTO, he's the only one to have made the frame last time around, but Ey Up It's Jazz has won two from three and How Bizarre won two starts ago.

Floats On Air might need the run after a break of almost four months and all of his rivals here have raced in the last 24 days with Ey Up It's Jazz have had just a week's rest. These are all confirmed Class 6 runners and none raced at a higher level last time.

Instant Expert paints a typical Class 6 picture of very few wins, but one of them has won on soft/heavy ground already and all bar two have won at Class 6. If you change the parameters on Instant Expert, you'll find that How Bizarre has won at Class 4 and Class 5, whilst Bold Territories and Stoney Lane are also former Class 5 winners...

Ey Up It's Jazz is the clear eye-catcher, but with really poor win figures for most of the field (anything in red from 10+ races is poor), I thin we're going to need some help from the place stats...

...which still aren't brilliant, but do suggest that some of these might well have enough in their lockers to make the frame. Sadly, I'm underwhelmed by the numbers for Floats On Air and/or Congress, so they're out of the picture for me, as I go and look to see if the draw might have an effect on the outcome here...

...but there doesn't seem to be much in it. The PRB3 figures pretty much say the same, but do suggest that the lower you're drawn, the slightly better chance you seem to have...

It's not a huge bias, but ignoring the clear anomaly that is stall 8, the PRB3 figure for stall 1 (0.54) is 108% that of stalls 6 & 7 (0.50), so there's a slight advantage there, which could be good for Revoquable & All Dunn in the two lowest stalls. And now back to where we started, our daily free feature, the PACE. We know from the top of the page that the runners have approached their most recent contests like this...

...and if we look at how those Beverley races we used for the draw stats have panned out...

...you'd probably want to focus on those with an average pace score of at least 2.50, although I'm interested in Revoquable's last two runs, where he raced prominently leading to a course and distance win last time out, suggesting he'll race that way again here. Bold Territories misses the cut here.

Summary

I've disregarded three already, leaving me with six to consider, from which I think Revoquable is the one to beat. He's drawn well, won over C&D recently and should race prominently, he has made the frame in tricky conditions before and I think he'll make it back-to back wins here. We're not getting rich at the 10pm price of 3/1, but it's probably a fair price.

All Dunn is the 5/2 fav and whilst I do like his chances here, that's too short for me, but he should be there or thereabouts. The one I do like from an E/W perspective is the 11/1 How Bizarre, he has a win and a runner-up finish from his last three outings, has won at both Class 4 and Class 5, has a consistent record at making the frame under these conditions and will be the likely front runner here. As long as only two pass him, we'll be fine!

Racing Insights, Saturday 22/07/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.30 Curragh
  • 2.00 Curragh
  • 3.20 Ripon
  • 3.35 Newbury
  • 4.35 Cartmel
  • 7.15 Doncaster

If I'm totally honest, I don't really fancy of Saturday's racing at all, including the ten races above, but the show must go on! To that end, I'm going to head to Town Moor and have a quick look at a very open looking 7.45 Doncaster, a 12-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to soft ground. The track is soft in places and more rain is expected, but here's the line-up...

Game Set won last time out and the sole three year old in the field has on both his previous runs to date and gets a useful 7lbs weight allowance on his handicap debut, but he is up two classes here.

Sir Thomas Gresham, Hickory, Brazen Bolt, Mudamer and Maywake were all runners-up LTO and most of the field have been in decent form of late.

The top two on the card, Gweedore and Atrium both take a drop in class, but Brazen Bolt, Danzan, Mudamer, Maywake and Tribal Wisdom are all up one grade.

Only Sir Thomas Gresham, Mudamer and bottom weight Tribal Wisdom have yet to win over this trip and Game Set is a course and distance winner. Atrium and Woven have also won here at Doncaster before, over a mile and 6f respectively.

Sir Thomas Gresham returns from a nine week break, but the remainder have all raced in the past month with top weight Gweedore having a run last Friday in a good race at York and Instant Expert suggests that he'll relish the underfoot conditions expected here...

The field is short on Class 3 wins with Gweedore, Woven and Danzan sharing a rather mediocre 4 from 33 record. Danzan does look rather out of his depth here across the board and Maywake has a poor record at the trip.

To be fair, there isn't much green on that chart generally, so let's check the place stats...

...which look a lot better and also show why I think this is a fairly open-looking contest. Unsurprisingly, when broken down into sectors/thirds, there appears to be little if any draw bias...

...but the PRB3 stats do imply that those drawn lowest have fared better than average...

Pace, however, is another matter, as there's a definite pattern formed...

...whereby those setting the early pace have invariably been swallowed up by the pack. Leaders make the frame most often, but have a terrible record of turning places in to wins at just 12.5%, whilst those not setting the pace have 36 wins from just 97 placed finishes at a 37.1% conversion rate. All of which doesn't look like good news for Gweedore, Danzan and Maywake...

Summary (as of 4pm)

Not an easy race to call and the soft option would be for me to say "back Game Set" and the reasoning would be obvious, he's in form, gets a weight allowance, will race prominently and has won over course and distance. If I can get 7/2 or bigger, then I could well be tempted into a bet. Sadly I reckon he'll be quite a bit shorter and I'd be wary at sub-3/1 odds about a horse we know little about.

Sir Thomas Gresham interests me, though. He's lightly raced for an 8 yr old, has a low draw, will race prominently and is invariably on the premises. The oddschecker tissue suggests 8/1 and I'd certainly have some of that as an E/W bet if available and you could make a case for Hickory, who too is lightly raced, but has won three of six. He wasn't beaten by far last time out and should be involved again here. His OC tissue price is only 6/1, though, so no E/W bet there.

It's a very open race, but these would be the three I'd want to focus on.

4.45pm odds update : My three are priced at 5/2, 9/2 and 7/2 on bet365's opening show, so the oddschecker forecast wasn't great and I'm not going to get involved at those odds. Should any drift, then I could well have a bet later.

Racing Insights, Friday 21/07/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are fairly restrictive but have still produced a trio of qualifiers...

...with Corinthia Knight of immediate interest. Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards and for Friday they are...

  • 1.50 Newbury
  • 4.00 Nottingham
  • 4.10 Newbury
  • 5.55 Hamilton
  • 6.10 Kilbeggan
  • 7.30 Newmarket

And I think I'll turn to the highest class/most valuable race from the free list, which is the 4.10 Newbury, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over a left-handed 1m5½f on good ground and here's how they'll line up...

My initial thoughts were that this might well be a two-horse race between the 3pm Hills' 11/4 joint favourites, Spring Fever and Flower of Dubai, but that any of their rivals, bar Tashi (who looks weak), could be contenders for the places, so let's dive in...

Night Sparkle and Spring Fever both won last time out and have won two of their last three outings, whilst Flash Bardot also won LTO and is two from four. Flower of Dubai is two from five and only Tashi is winless in more than seven races, having now lost her ,last twelve in a run stretching back over two years. She has won just once in twenty-three attempts and I'm already saying that she's not for me here despite wearing a hood for the first time. It would have to have magical powers, I think!

Secret Shadow and Flower of Dubai both drop down a class and the latter will fancy her chances after only going down by a length at Haydock last time out. Spring Fever, Divina Grace and Alba Longa are, however, up one class, whilst Flash Bardot's win last week was at Class 5.

That was only last Thursday and she's turned back out quickest of these nine. Most of her rivals have raced in the last six weeks or so, but Secret Shadow has been rested for three months.

She is, however, the only previous course and distance winner in the field. None of the others have won here before (mind you, Haseefah's run here in December 2021 is the only other appearance by any of the field) and only top weight Night Sparkle has scored over a similar trip.

Three of the field have already won on good ground and three have won at this grade, according to Instant Expert...

...which sadly doesn't carry as much data as I generally hope for. It does, however, highlight the wretched form of Tashi and suggests that Haseefah might struggle in this grade. It also points out that both Night Sparkle and Spring Fever are now rated 10lbs higher than their last wins, whilst both Flash Bardot and Alba Longa are carrying considerably more weight than when last victorious.

The place stats don't shed too much more light on this field...

...but they do suggest that Divina Grace likes the good ground better than her 0 from 3 record might imply, whilst Hassefah's form at this level isn't as bad as it first seemed and whilst it's almost a year since Secret Shadow last won, she has been running in much better races than this and looks the pick of the pack purely on the data above.

I'm normally fairly dismissive of the effects of the draw over trips of 1m2f and beyond as I believe that there's ample time to undo a 'bad' draw and here at Newbury in races of 1.5 miles and further, it looks like I'd be right in those assertion...

The apparent success of the lower drawn horses is a massively skewed by a freak number of winners from stall 2 and based on that data above, there's only stall 1 that has struggled to make the frame, which is further good news for the jt favs, who will emerge from stalls 5 & 6. They're drawn side-by-side but if they're going to be the first two home, they're likely to be a fair distance apart during the actual race itself, as I'd expect Spring Fever to be up with the pace, whilst Flower of Dubai tends to be produced quite late, if recent outings are anything to go by...

If we then revisit those races used for the draw stats, we can see that those setting the pace here often become a target for the chasing pack to aim for and they do generally catch and beat those leaders...

...which must be advantage Flower of Dubai in that battle of the jt favs.

Summary

I do think that the 3pm joint favs Flower of Dubai and Spring Fever are the best two runners in the race, but the hold-up approach by the former tips the scales in her favour for me, so I'm with Flower of Dubai for this one. Bet365 have opened up since I wrote the pre-amble and go 7/2 about Flower of Dubai and whilst that's not over generous, it's at least fair.

Spring Fever should still be good enough to hold on and make the frame, but who joins them? Well, I could make a case for several, but on an ability vs risk vs reward/value basis, I think I'd take a small E/W punt on Secret Shadow, who looks far too long at 20/1 with Bet365. Hills go 11/1 about her and that's more realistic in my opinion.

Racing Insight, Thursday 20/07/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.35 Chepstow
  • 4.55 Hamilton
  • 5.15 Leopardstown
  • 6.35 Killarney
  • 7.00 Epsom
  • 8.40 Epsom

And whilst it's not the best race of the day or even the best of the free list, I think the 4.55 Hamilton race offers us the most in terms of Instant Expert from that list of races. It's an 8-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m3f on good to soft ground. The ground is softer in places and thunderstorms are expected, so it might well be heading towards soft by the off..

It's not a good race, but it will have a winner, so whilst I'd never advise spending too long on a race like this, it doesn't mean we shouldn't look at all. Unsurprisingly, none of these won last time out, but both Can Can Girl and Spanish Hustle made the frame and the latter did win his penultimate race. Lochnaver also won two starts ago and Blazer Two's win three races back is the only other win on display in the recent form lines of the entire field.

The class move information is a little misleading today, as The Navigator's run LTO at Class 2 was over hurdles, but he is still two classes lower than his last Flat run in April. Hezmie is, however, down three classes from finishing last of eight at Pontefract nine days after finishing last of eight at Doncaster at Class 5, whilst Lochnaver drops back a class after defeat at Hamilton and having finished second and then first in her last two at this level, she'll feel more at home in this company.

Blazer Two makes a yard debut here after joining Lucinda Russell's small but relatively successful string of Flat runners (96% of her runners over the last ten years have been in National Hunt contests, but she's 13 from 69 on the Flat since the start of last season including 12 from 51 at Class 5/6).

The Navigator has won over this trip at Carlisle and Ghostly has won here over 1m4f, whilst Spanish Hustle and Lochnaver are both former course and distance winners. There should be any rustiness to shake off here, as The Navigator is the longest rested and he was seen in action less than eight weeks ago; Can Can Girl and Hezmie have already had a run this month.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, adds some more meat to the bones with news of three good to soft winners and a couple of soft ground victors, whilst all bar Hezmie have at least one Class 6 victory to their names. She hasn't actually raced this low, but has won at Class 5, albeit on the A/W, whilst The Navigator and Can Can Girl have both won on turf at Class 5. Smart Lass actually won at Class 4 in February 2022, which would be great had she not failed to win any of 13 races since!

That run of defeats is why Smart Lass is now rated 7lbs below her last win, so she could be dangerously weighted here considering her liking for soft ground. Spanish Hustle's best form has come on good to firm ground, so he might struggle here again, whilst Lochnaver's trio of wins at this venue is interesting. The place data doesn't really help many of these on the going front...

...and The Navigator is probably the pick of the bunch in a race where I don't expect the draw to have too much effect, based on previous contests...

...but if we can identify ourselves a front-runner, that might help, because those races above have unfolded like this...

We log how all horses run in the UK to enable us to make a reasoned estimate as to how they might run again and here's how they've gone in their last four outings...

...suggesting the early pace will come from the three at the top of that list. Of that trio, I'm not too keen on Ghostly right now, even at 6lbs below his last winning mark. He has been out of sorts for some while and didn't run well here last month, but I do like Lochnaver and Blazer Two from the front.

Summary

Lochnaver and Blazer Two head the pace chart and both are interesting here. Lochnaver has been in good form of late and loves it here at Hamilton, whilst Blazer Two has moved to Lucinda Russell's  yard recently. She does really well with her small string of low-grade flat runners and I'm intrigued at how quickly she's sending this one back out. he's only a pound higher than his last win and has never been ridden by a jockey as good as Joe Fanning before. Joe, of course, is a master at assessing pace.

To this pair, I'm adding the hold-up type, The Navigator. He's down in class, scored well on Instant Expert and hold-up horses have done pretty well here under similar conditions and I think he could be involved late on in this one.

And that's my three from eight. To be honest, they're all much of a muchness and the early market would appear to agree...

I don't really have an overwhelming urge to stick my neck out for any of them, but if pushed, Blazer Two might be the one. No E/W interest from me in this contest, though, so watch Smart Lass now go and put a shift in!

 

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 18/07/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

And we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.35 Beverley
  • 7.30 Nottingham
  • 8.20 Killarney
  • 9.00 Nottingham

The contest between the two Southwell runners from TS should be the one to focus on from a Class perspective, but it's only a 5-runner that looks like being a three horse race, so we'll tackle the last race of the night, the 9.00 Nottingham, a moderate-looking, 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m½f on soft ground...

Not much recent winning form on display here, but both Star Zinc and Jack Daniel won their penultimate outings, whilst Calypso has been knocking on the door with a recent run of form reading 2332. He, along with Classic Speed and Cariad will benefit from an 8lb allowance as the trio of three year olds in this race, with the latter receiving between 10 and 22lbs from her rivals.

She is the only runner stepping up in class here and is one of two females in the race, the other being the top weight Zarabanda. Lion's Dream, Dandy Maestro, Star Zinc and Classic Speed all drop down a class and the latter makes just a secoing handicap appearance almost 10 weeks after his last run.

None of his rivals have been off as long, as they've all raced in the last seven weeks with Cariad having been seen as recently as last Wednesday at Yarmouth; she'll find today's soft ground far different than the seaside good to firm from last time out!

Lion's Dream, Calypso and Classic Speed have yet to win over a similar trip to this one and our sole course winner, Dandy Maestro, has a win and a runner-up finish (2 starts ago) from two efforts over course and distance.

Instant Expert has a limited amount of data, but it does highlight that Jack Daniel is the sole soft ground winner and also one of just three Class 5 flat victors in this field...

...and he looks the pick of the bunch on those albeit small numbers. Such is the lack of relevant data, we should consider the place stats to hopefully suggest who else might like the conditions...

...and I'd probably say Dandy Maestro's hat was now firmly in the ring too. he's drawn centrally in stall 5 just outside Jack Daniel, so it'll now be useful to see if that's a positive or a negative, based on previous past contests under similar conditions here at Nottingham.

The initial indications are that a low draw should be avoided if possible...

...but the PRB3, stall-by-stall and place data seem to suggest that there'll not be a great deal in it from a draw perspective...

Stall 2 doesn't look great, but there's no reason why just one stall should perform so badly, so I'm going to treat that as an anomaly here and move on to see what if any pace is likely to be in the race and if we look at the field's last four outings, we see that the likes of Jack Daniel and Lion's Dream are the most likely front-runners, whilst Star Zinc will probably be the back marker in the early stages...

...and if we look back at those 60-plus races from the draw data, we find that those setting the pace have done best here...

...which is great news for Jack Daniel and Lion's Dream and with a central draw, leading will certainly be the best policy for Jack Daniel...

Dandy Maestro would be best advised to follow Jack Daniel and run like he did here two starts ago, when a runner-up in a higher grade.

Summary

Jack Daniel ticks the most boxes for me, he won two starts ago and has won over this trip. Soft ground won't be an issue and he has the ideal pace/draw setup to score here. The tissue forecast of 11/2 would be very nice indeed, but I suspect we'll have to take a point of more off that price. Dandy Maestro is interesting as a possible E/W pick and the tissue prices of 10/1 do materialise, then it's a yes from me, I wouldn't go lower than 8's on this one.

The biggest danger to either/both of them is the 3yr old Calypso who comes here in fine form (2332) and has that useful weight allowance. Much will depend on how he handles soft ground for the first time, but he should be in the mix here.

Good luck, however you play this one and a quick heads-up that I'm away all day Tuesday, so my next column will appear on Wednesday for Thursday's racing, where Instant Expert will be our free feature.

Racing Insights, Monday 17/07/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.35 Ayr
  • 5.50 Killarney
  • 8.20 Killarney
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

I don't really do Irish racing, as most of you know and the Ayr race is a 7-runner novice event where the field of 2 yr olds have a total of ten races between them. This hardly builds up a reliable pace profile, so we're off to the 8.30 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard tapeta...

The indications from Bet365 at 6pm Sunday were that it was a three-horse race (other bookies say four)...

...but if one was to fail we might have a nicely-priced E/W prospect, especially with most firms paying four places so let's see...

At 100/1 in places, I'm just tempted to discard Thunder Sun from the off, but let's crack on with a field with no LTO winners, although Bill Plumb is two from three and Rogue de Vega has a gold and two silvers from hios three career starts. Caesar's Pearl won two starts ago, but we're a bit light of decent form here and Araifjan's chances of ending a 12-race cold spell won't be helped by a step up in class.

Mohareb, Blue Flame, Sergeant Pep and rank outsider Thunder Flame all step down a class here, whilst it's a double drop for top weight Belle Fourche in a race that sees the in-form Rogue de Vega make a handicap debut.

Blue Flame has already won here at Wolverhampton over 7f, whilst Belle Fourche, Bill Plumb, Sergeant Pep, Murbih and Araifjan are former course and distance winners. Of the other half dozen runners, Mohareb, Asadjumeirah and Caesar's Pearl have won over this trip on another track.

The top two on the card, Belle Fourche & Mohareb return from breaks of 231 & 128 days respectively. Bill Plumb has been off for almost ten weeks, but the others have all been in action in the last eight weeks with Asadjumeirah and Erosion Risk having raced this month already.

We have four three year olds in the field in the shape of Rogue de Vega, Sergeant Pep, Caesar's pearl and Erosion Risk and they get a 5lb weight allowance, which should be very useful especially for the in-form handicap debutant Rogue de Vega.

Instant Expert's lowdown on this field's past A/W records show seven former standard going winners and five Class 5 winners as well as the course and distance winners from earlier. Changing the criteria will also give you three Class 3 winners and three to have scored at Class 4...

...and it's definitely the top half of the card that catches the eye, aside from Mohareb. He's already a no from me, based on the above, as are Araifjan & Erosion Risk and if we did exclude Thunder Sun, we're left with eight of our original twelve. We've omitted runners from stalls 2, 3, 4 and 12, so if Sod's Law is anything to go by, the following draw stats will tell me to look for low drawn runners!

I've gone back as far as I needed to get at least 100 past similar contests and thankfully getting a low draw isn't the be all and end all, but high draws can be a struggle...

If we look at the PRB3 stats, then we're advised that the first seven stalls are the place to be...

...and then we need to look at our daily feature pace! Those 110+ races above have tended to go to those displaying good early pace...

Leaders win more than their fair share of contests here, but the data above suggests that prominent runners rein them in late on. Now if Instant Expert wants us to look at horses with lower saddle cloth numbers (1-7?) and those drawn 1 to 7, that's only Bill Plumb and Rogue de Vega. Hmmm, what if either of those have a pace score of around 3.00 or higher? Let's see...

Summary

It's Rogue de Vega for me here and 5/1 looks more than fair about an unexposed, in-form three year old receiving a weight allowance. He's drawn well and has a good pace profile and although only three races in, has yet to run a bad one.

Of the others at the top of the market, I do like Bill Plumb for similar reasons to the selection, but I don't like him quite as much and 4/1 is too short for an E/W bet. Sergeant Pep looks too long at 10's with bet365 and would be a decent E/W pick at that price, but I'm not really keen on anything else.

Racing Insights, Saturday 15/07/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 3.10 York
  • 3.30 Ascot
  • 3.52 Chester
  • 4.27 Chester
  • 4.45 Navan
  • 5.05 Salisbury

And despite the obvious pull of the Appleby/Buick partnership, I want to move away from HQ after two posts from there this week already. So, I'm staying closer to (my) home because there's a Class 1 race on the list of free races, the 4.27 Chester, a 10-runner Listed contest over a left-handed 7f on what is currently good to soft ground that is softer in places. there's quite a lot of rain around in the North West (as always!) and I'd not be surprised to see this go to soft by tea-time Saturday. That said, here's the card...

He's A Monster won last time out and is four from six so far, Brad The brief has won two of his last four, Mount Athos is three from five and although winless in eight since scoring on his debut, Holguin has five runner-up finishes and a third places from those eight efforts, finishing 222 in his three races in Listed company.

Ffion and He's A Monster both step up from good runs at Class 3, whilst Think climate was in Class 2 action a fortnight ago. Witch Hunter is in decent nick right now and is denoted as a fast finisher and he, like Think Climate and three others all raced a fortnight ago.

The rest of the field bar Misty Grey have raced in the last seven weeks, though, with Misty Grey now returning from over six months off. he wasn't in the best of form before his break and that allied to a potential rustiness puts me off him.

He's A Monster, Holguin and Think Climate are all three years old, so they'll carry 3lbs less than the two females (Fast Response & Ffion) and 8lbs less than the top half of the card, which should be very handy here. Speaking of weight, Brad The Brief is the highest rated runner here at 112 and would be best off at the weights, but for the 108-rated Holguin getting that 8lb pull for his age.

The 6yr old mare Ffion is the sole course and distance winner in the field, but Misty Grey, Mount Athos, Witch Hunter, He's A monster and Think Climate have all scored over a similar trip elsewhere.

Instant Expert adds to the above data by telling us that three of the field have won on good to soft ground and that three have scored on soft. We also see that we've three previous Class 1 flat winners...

If it does end up being soft, then brad the brief would be a better bet than if it was a bit drier. The returning Misty Grey hasn't gone well at Class 1 and his sole Flat win was over 6f. Sam Maximus has also struggled at his level. As for their place form...

...both Witch Hunter and Holguin look really comfortable under these conditions. They're drawn at opposite ends of the stalls (in boxes 2 and 8) and the old adage of needing/wanting to be drawn low at Chester is backed up by the stats from similar past races...

...whilst the best place to be in those races above is as close tot he lead as possible...

Our field has raced as follows in their most recent outings...

...and I'd probably want to be with those in the top four of that list.

Summary

Holguin and Brad The Brief are best in at the weights, both scored well on Instant Expert, both are drawn in the inside three stalls and both will be up with the pace, so they're both in my final three. They're also both 4/1 co-favs with Witch Hunter, who I do like, but he's going to have encounter traffic and I think that stops him beating the other two and I'm not going E/W at 4/1 about any horse.

If I'm going for an E/W bet, i'm taking the generous-looking 10/1 from Hills about the in-form He's A Monster. I know he's up in class, but he has won four from six, his draw isn't horrific and he's certainly going to be up with the pace, so he'll do for me. As for the winner, I (marginally) prefer Holguin over Brad The Brief, mainly due to the weight allowance.

Racing Insights, Friday 14/07/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

Sadly, my chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just two qualifiers for Friday...

...but I can still fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.15 Ascot
  • 2.25 Newmarket
  • 3.50 York
  • 4.45 Newmarket
  • 5.35 Kilbeggan
  • 6.35 Chepstow

...and whilst the field is a little larger than I'm normally comfortable with, it makes sense to tie the daily feature in with the free races, so we're going to have a look at Final Watch and the 4.45 Newmarket, a 14-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

FORM : Amber Island won last time out, as did Under The Twilight, whilst Final Watch, Razeyna and Waiting All Night all had top 3 finishes. Street Kid, Maxi Boy, Persuasion and Waiting All Night have failed to win any of their last 8, 12, 17 and 11 races respectively.

CLASS : Tiger Crusade and Street Kid both drop down a class, but Amber Island, Maxi Boy, Love de Vega (on yard debut here) and Waiting All Night are all up a level, whilst Under The Twilight is up two classes after his LTO win.

COURSE/DISTANCE RECORD : All bar Maxi Boy and Waiting All Night have won over 7f and we've two course winners in the shape of Final Watch and Love de Vega who have both scored over course and distance.

LAST RAN : Love de Vega might well be in need of a run after nearly nine months off the track, whilst all his rivals have been out in the last two months. Waiting All Night ran as recently as last Friday!

Our two LTO winners are the only females in the races and we've a pair of 3 yr olds, Harry Magnus & Waiting All Night, at the foot of the weights thanks partly to their 8lbs weight for age allowance.

Instant Expert identifies nine past good to firm winners and seven who scored at least once at Class 3 on turf. The graphic below also suggests that this trip hasn't been an enjoyable one for the likes of Lyndon B (1 from 12) and Persuasion (2 from 18) and although Final Watch is on the horses for courses list, he has struggled at Class 3, winning just once in seven starts...

Tiger Crusade is now 11lbs higher than his last Flat win, but he did score at Lingfield on the A/W at 4lbs higher than today, just three starts ago, but Under The twilight really is 12lbs higher than when she won almost four weeks ago! Persuasion is the one dropping down the weights, but has run well in defeat off marks of 86-89 in recent outings.

As you're probably aware, I'm not always sure about the effects of the draw over a straight race and on the face of past similar contests...

...you'd say that the lower you were drawn the better, but the PRB3 stats say that the centre of the stalls is where you want to be...

...whilst I can't help but feel that the LOW / MID /HIGH stats are a bit skewed by an unusually large number of winners from stall 1...

...so I'll park the draw for now and file it as unresolved today, but what I am pretty sure about is that you don't want to be backing hold-up horses here in a competitive big-field contest on quick ground...

...and if you can identify a front-runner, you could be quids in, Thankfully, we can quickly make an assumption as to how the race might progress by looking at the field's last few runs and they look like this...

...which is great news for me, because I liked Mister Bluebird before I started writing the piece! Harry Magnus has that supposedly plum draw in stall 1, but won't get to take advantage of it and he'll have a wall of runners ahead of him. The other 'pace' runner in the field is Love de Vega, but he somewhat lost his way last season and hasn't been seen since last year. And more on pace, this is how they might break out in draw order...

Summary

Mister Bluebird is likely to lead and I much prefer him as my front-runner than the rusty Love de Vega. Mister Bluebird isn't drawn far from the centre, which PRB3 says is the spot to be in and he has gone well in all four starts this season. He might not be an obvious pick as a winner, but with most bookies paying four places (Sky go 5, as ever!), I'd be happy with a 9/1 E/W punt here.

Prior to doing the analysis, I liked Lyndon B and H4C horse Final Watch as possible E/W candidates too, but I fear the pace will kill their chances here, so I'm going to put them in the "every chance but not carrying my money" category. Street Kid, however, might outrun his 18/1 price ticket and make the frame if not ridden too aggressively this time, he's down in class and trip and has a better jockey on board than last time, so he could be involved. Just small stakes, though!

Racing Insights, Thursday 13/07/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.35 Newmarket
  • 3.45 Doncaster
  • 4.00 Carlisle
  • 5.20 Newmarket
  • 7.00 Epsom
  • 7.50 Newbury

...from which the best on paper is arguably the first on the list, but only four are set to contest the Group 2 Princess of Wales Stakes, so I'll take a look at the last on that same card, the 5.20 Newmarket, a 10-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on good to firm ground...

This has the feel of a pretty open contest and I can already make a case for four or five of them, but only Glenfinnan was a winner last time out and Greatgadian, Darkness and Soar Above have no wins in their last six (12, 15 and 9 actually!) outings.

I'm going to be fairly ruthless at this point and discard all three as they are 1 from 15, 0 from 15 and 1 from 13 on the Flat and I just know that I couldn't be tempted to back them.

Of my remaining seven runners, all are moving in class to run a Class 3 today. Titian, Good Karma and Bodorgan all drop in from Class 2, whilst Sirona's last three (of a 4-race career!) have all been in Listed company. The other three runners (United Front, Glenfinnan and Bling On The Music) were all in Class 4 action when last seen, which in Glenfinnan's case was ten months ago and that might be an issue. Titian has been off for ten weeks, but the remainder have all raced in the last two to seven weeks.

Glenfinnan is hooded for the first time and actually makes a handicap debut here, as does Sirona and it's Good Karma's second attempt in handicap company. We have four three year olds in the field (Sirona, the sole filly in the race, Good Karma, Glenfinnan & Bodorgan) and they will receive a very handy 9lb weight allowance for their age, which should make them very competitive, even if they lack a little experience.

Instant Expert says that only two of the remaining seven runners have won on good to form ground and that only one has won a Class 3 flat race, mind you only three have tried! Bodorgan is our sole course winner, whilst only Glenfinnan has scored over a mile on turf...

Bling On The Music may have own on good to firm, but a 1 in 7 record isn't great, nor is his 0 from 5 at the trip, although United front has gone one race more on that score. The absence of green above suggests we might (or might not!) learn more from the place stats. There's only one way to find out!

Sirona is pretty much untested in these conditions, but both Titian and United Front have gone well at this grade previously. The latter has also shown a liking for good to firm ground. Don't get me wrong a win and two places from five efforts isn't much to crow about, but his Flat record on other going is just 0 wins and 2 places from 11 starts, so good to firm might well be his thing and both he and Titian seem to 'get' the trip.

Those two are drawn pretty wide with only Glenfinnan and top weight Greatgadian outside of them, but I doubt that the draw is going to make or break a runners' chances here over a straight mile and that's how it has been in the past here...

...whereas the pace profile of those races tells a different story and the emphasis has been on taking or getting close to the lead...

...which isn't great news for Bling On The Music or Good Karma, based on their last two or three efforts...

...so much so that I'm ready to discard that pair too, giving me just five to focus on.

Summary

3pm : I like Glenfinnan and the way he won his maiden last September, but he's up in class and hasn't raced since. That said, he is likely to make the running here and if allowed a soft lead, he could well run away with this one, as he did at Yarmouth. He's hardly thrown in off a mark of 91 and I'd be wary of backing him at that weight, but I suspect the 9lb allowance will be the key here and I'd say he's the one to beat.

I don't know enough about Sirona, other than that she lacks relevant experience under these conditions and has been well beaten in her last three outings. Both Titian and United Front scored well on the place side of Instant Expert and both look well set to play a major part here again, if only because the rest of the field might not be good enough, whilst Bodorgan receives weight all round and wasn't beaten by far in two recent runs at a higher grade.

I won't get involved with Sirona, until I know a bit more about her, but any of Titian, United Front and/or Bodorgan could chase Glenfinnan home and make the frame.

5.30pm odds check : The market goes 9/2 Glenfinnan & Bodorgan, 7/1 Titian and 20/1 United Front! So, I'd back Glenfinnan and take an E/W punt on both Titian and United Front. Skybet are paying four places here and still offer 14's about United Front and that might well be a nice bet.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 12/07/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.25 Dundalk
  • 4.30 Lingfield
  • 5.40 Lingfield
  • 6.30 Kempton
  • 6.40 Bath
  • 7.00 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have sadly only generated the following runner for me to consider...

That said, Dalby Forest does run in one of our free races, so let's focus upon that 5.40 Lingfield race. It's a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good to firm ground. The track is firm in places, but with rain forecast, I'd imagine it'll remain good to firm for these runners...

...from which we have no LTO winners, but with a three race form line of 212, Skallywag Bay brings the best results to the table. She has won two of her last six plus those two runner-up finishes, Dalby Forest has a win and a place from his last three, Dynamite Katie has a win and a place from her last five and Betweenthesticks won seven races ago. Lipsink, Just That Lord and So Smart are winless in their last 10, 7 and 9 races respectively, but the latter has at least made the frame in three of his five runs this season.

Both Skallywag Bay and Dnamic Katie step up one class here, whilst it's a yard debut for bottom weight and oldest (10 yo now!) runner Just That Lord, who might well need the run after an 11-month absence. Featured horse Dalby Forest hasn't raced for four months, but the remainder of the field have all had at least one outing in the last four weeks.

None of these have won at Lingfield before, mind you only two of them (Dalby Forest & Just That Lord) have raced on this turf strip, visiting here just once each (Dalby Forest did at least make the frame when third of nine over 6f on his sole Flat run to date, back in May 2022!). The trip, however, shouldn't be an issue as all bar Dynamic Katie are past 5f winners (her win was over 7f at Dundalk), although Skallywag Bay's 5f win was on the A/W here three weeks ago.

We have two fillies in the race, Skallywag Bay and Dynamic Katie and they are two of our three 3yo runners (Betweenthesticks being the other) who receive a very handy 5lb weight for age allowance here, which could be crucial over a fast 5f. Instant Expert doesn't really paint a great picture of this field from a Flat win perspective...

...and whilst I don't know a great deal about these runners, I am aware that some of them have consistently come close to winning those races above...

...where So Smart catches the eye with some consistent performances under expected conditions. Sadly his recent run of making the frame in three from five this season isn't bringing his mark down to a winning one and he's up a pound here after a half length defeat last time out, pushing his OR back to 6lbs higher than his last win, but those numbers above suggest he's due to go well yet again.

He is, of course, drawn widest of all seven and somewhat surprisingly for a straight 5f on quick ground, there has been an advantage from being drawn highest...

...suggesting that he and Lipsink might well be best suited by occupying stalls 6 & 7. The Pace Analysis of those races speaks for itself...

...although the resultant pace/draw heat map might spring a shock by suggesting that it is the low-drawn leaders who fare best of all...

I think this implies that the pace aspect of the contest might well be important than the draw and this ties in with my own thoughts. There really shouldn't be much of a draw bias in a small field over a straight sprint, but early pace quite often wins the race. It takes a super effort to come from off the pace over a quick five furlongs and if this field's last few runs are anything to go by, this could be a right tear-up...

Summary

I don't think the pace and/or draw stats are going to help us much here. There shouldn't be an advantage from any part of the draw and the inference from the draw data is they're all inclined to 'go for it'. The vulnerable ones could well be Dalby Forest and Just That Lord after long lay-offs and they might need the run, which is always conducive to going well in a burn-up.

Skallywag Bay is in the best form and gets a useful 5lb weight allowance, which might well make her the one to beat here, but is she a 6/4 or 13/8 shot? Probably not. I'm not saying she can't or shouldn't win this, but I'd not want to back her at those odds. Next best on my reckoning is So Smart, whose consistency might be the key here, he certainly wouldn't be winning out of turn and has been knocking on the door this season. Odds of 7/2 aren't overly generous, but are at least fair, so I'll have a couple of quid there.

Some firms will pay three places and Lipsink will be popular, based on his instant Expert data, but I think that former Class 3 winner Betweenthesticks has the potential to make the frame here, especially as he too gets that 5lb allowance and his 5lb claimer has ridden him to victory twice already. 6/1 or even 13/2 would normally be a bit short for me as an E/W bet, but if you're getting three places in a seven-horse race, that's acceptable.

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