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Racing Insights, Tuesday 11/07/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Mister X and Earls would be of most obvious interest initially. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 2.45 Pontefract
  • 3.55 Pontefract
  • 4.15 Wolverhampton
  • 5.15 Tramore

...and with one of the top two runners from The Shortlist running in the best looking race from the free list, it makes sense to have a closer look at Earls and the 3.55 Pontefract, which is a 7-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 6f on good ground, that is already softer in places and more rain is expected...

Bottom weight Kitai is the only LTO winner in the field today and as the sole 3 yr old will also benefit from a 6lb weight allowance. The solitary female in the race is, however up two classes and 5lbs here for a two length success at Carlisle just under a fortnight ago.

None of her rivals even made the frame last time out, but all have at least one win in their most recent form line and in a bid to get a bit more success, Aleezdancer is in first-time blinkers, Earls makes a cheekpieces debut and a visor is now fitted to Aphelios.

All of these are previous 6f winners with the veteran and top-weight Summerghand, Aleezdancer and Kitai all former course and distance winners. Featured horse Earl is coming off a short break of almost seven weeks, but the others have all raced in the last 8 to 19 days.

All seven have at least one Flat win on good or good to soft ground, but according to Instant Expert, just three have won a flat race at Class 2...

From a win perspective, Summerghand would probably want quicker ground that this, but he has actually won twice on soft ground too, so all might not be lost there especially now that he's 2lbs lower than when winning the 24-runner Ayr Gold Cup last September and he did win a Listed contest at Lingfield in February. Aleezdancer may well be 1 from 11 at Class 2, he has finished 4313 in the four sub-£20k Class 2 contests, so it's not a given that he might be outclassed here and when we look at place form, it's Bay Breeze who looks the weakest...

...whilst it's hard to ignore Aphelios' OR of 89, some 14lbs higher than his win at Carlisle last August, although it would be unfair of me not to mention that he did win on the A/W at Kempton off 84 in October and was placed next time out at the same track/class/distance off 88.

Our Draw Analyser suggests that those drawn centrally fare worse than runners drawn either side of them...

...and much is made about the "Ponty Golden Corridor from stalls 1 & 2", but closer analysis shows that stall 6 is also a decent place to run from...

...I'm assuming that's because they can hit the turn a little wider and take the bend at a greater speed, somewhat akin to an F1 racing line. Earls & Kitai will be pleased to have got the inside draw, but old warrior Summerghand could be well primed from box six, based on the above. Much will, of course, depend on how runners approach this race, because a 6f at Ponty certainly favours those most willing to get on with things from the off...

Sadly, this bunch aren't exactly the early pace types as shown from our pace/draw heat map below...

...with only It Just Takes Time having more 3+ scores than 2 or under. This suggests we're going to get a falsely run race here, which will play into the hands of those who might well have been left behind had there been any significant early real pace.

Summary

It's not obvious where to go here, aside from discarding  Bay Breeze, based on Instant Expert. I suppose Aphelios' weight is too much of a concern for me to feel comfortable backing him and whilst Kitai won well recently, she's up in class and weight and a price of 15/8 or 2/1 doesn't seem to represent great value to me, although I'm sure she'll be in the mix.

This brings me to Summerghand, who I do like despite his form so far this summer, His mark is now dropping to below his last win, he gets on well with jockey Danny Tudhope and he did win here over course and distance on his only previous visit, 5/1 looks more than fair to me, so that's where I'll be heading. Featured horse Earls makes a UK debut and is probably too high in the weights right now, so is probably left watched, but Bet365's price of 8/1 about Aleezdancer was interesting. He's now only 3lbs higher than his last win and with his jockey taking 7lbs off, he could spring a surprise here. He has gone well enough several times under similar conditions and whilst I don't think he'll beat Summerghand, he'd not be a bad E/W bet, especially with most firms paying three places.

Racing Insights, Monday 10/07/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 4.05 Ayr
  • 5.15 Ayr
  • 6.15 Ripon
  • 7.43 Roscommon

...the best of which looks like being the 4.05 Ayr, a 6-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m5f on good to soft ground...

None of these won last time out, but Ravenscraig Castle was a runner-up, Alpine Stroll has been second in each of his last two starts, whilst La Pulga has a win and two places from his last three and Geremia also won three races ago.

Geremia is also the one not moving in class here, as top weight Charging Thunder is down a level and the other four all step up from Class 4. La Pulga and Geremia have both won over a similar trip, whilst both Charging Thunder and Ravenscraig Castle are former course and distance winners with the latter now wearing a visor for the first time.

The entire field have raced in the last 12 to 23 days, so they should all be fresh enough to be competitive here for a race where three of them have already won on good to soft ground, according to Instant Expert, which also informs us that only one of them has scored at Class 3 before...

Charging Thunder runs on good to soft for the first time and although his stats look good above, most of that form is on good to firm ground and his recent runs have been hit and miss, finishing 2nd, 10th, 2nd and 13th, all at Class 2 after back to back Class 3 wins (inc 1 x CD) last July. The field's record at this grade isn't good at all aside from Charging Thunder, of course and both Ravenscraig Castle & Alpine Stroll have struggled to win on this softer ground, although they have both made the frame a couple of times...

The other concern about Ravenscraig Castle is the fact that he's 0 from 13 over the last two years and is still 10lbs higher than his last win. He will, of course, run from pretty much the centre of the stalls from box four, but the draw really shouldn't be having too much effect over such a lengthy trip and this theory is backed up by our stats, albeit off a small sample size...

and those races above have really favoured hold-up horses...

...which could well be some much needed good news for Ravenscraig Castle...

Summary

Geremia and Ravenscraig Castle both look well suited by the pace profile here, but that's the only real positive that I've found for the latter. La Pulga might go off too quickly and get caught and he's not really a fan of this softer ground. And you can pretty say the same about Alpine Stroll, whilst all of Charging Thunder's form is on quicker surfaces, even if he does drop in class here.

Zimmerman, however, does like the good to soft ground, but back to back wins on this going last autumn took his mark from 74 to 82 and seems to have toiled in the 80's since and is probably still in the grip of the assessor here.

All of which brings me back to Geremia, he has the ideal pace profile for this contest, he was running on well late on in defeat last time out and the extra furlong should suit, making him my tentative selection here at 4/1 with the 3/1 La Pulga probably the biggest danger.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 08/07/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.30 Haydock
  • 3.15 Haydock
  • 3.50 Haydock
  • 4.15 Sandown
  • 4.37 Beverley
  • 5.17 Leicester

There are better races out there, but I do like to tie the daily feature in with the list of free races, so let's have a look at the 4yr old filly Oriole in the 4.37 Beverley, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

Bringbackmemories and Freak Out both won last time out, whilst Richard P Smith and Havana Party both won their penultimate starts, but Crown Princess has failed to win any of her last ten. Top weight and featured horse, Oriole takes a drop in class here, as do Poet's Dawn and our LTO winners Bringbackmemories and Freak Out.

Solar Joe and Crown Princess are the only runners yet to win over a similar trip to this one, but the latter has at least won on this track albeit at 1m½f just over two years ago. The experienced Poet's Dawn has won four times over that 1m½f trip here at Beverley, as well as a win over 7½f, whilst Freak Out's LTO win was over this course and distance just 11 days ago.

He'll be the one with the least rest between runs, but all of these have raced in the last six weeks or so, meaning that none of them should be too rusty. Quite a few of this field have reasonable records under certain aspects of the forecasted conditions, but none have excelled and some have struggled, according to Instant Expert...

There's more negatives in the above than there are positives, but that's to be expected down at Class 5, but the main concerns surround Bringbackmemories (trip), Crown Princess (going/track), Freak Out (going), Poet's Dawn (going/trip) and Havana Party (class). Perhaps the place stats might show some of these in a better light...

That certainly puts the likes of Crown Princess in with a shout of making the frame and there's no real horror stories there, suggesting that any of these could grab a place in a contest that currently has no obvious winner. If we then turn to the draw, there's not a great deal in it, but the lower stalls have fared better than those drawn higher...

...but you'd have to expect that over 1m2f on quick ground that the draw bias could easily be undone and that race positioning aka pace will be of a greater importance, so let's see how those races above have unfolded...

Essentially the further forward a horse races, the more chance it has of winning/placing, therefore if we've any confirmed front runners around, they'd be the ones to focus on, but sadly that doesn't appear to be the case based on recent events...

There's not many of these wanting to take it on, so there's the chance of a falsely run race, but the top three on that list do at least have the ability to get on with things.

Summary

It's not a good standard of race, but it's certainly competitive. No odds available for this at 3.45pm on Friday, so I'll come back to this later on, but my thoughts are that the likes of Bringbackmemories and Freak Out who both won LTO should be involved with Crown Princess in with a shout of making the frame.

Racing Insights, Friday 07/07/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for Friday, but I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.55 Doncaster
  • 3.40 Sandown
  • 4.15 Sandown
  • 5.55 Bellewstown
  • 6.40 Haydock
  • 8.10 Beverley

...where the second of the two Sandown contests is a competitive-looking, small field, Class 1 contest, so let's look at the 4.15 Sandown, a 5-runner, Listed flat race for horses aged 3 and above. The trip is a right-handed 1m2f on good/good to soft ground and here's the field...

All five actually raced against each other last time out and that was in the Listed Wolferton Stakes over this trip at Royal Ascot seventeen days ago, where Saga was well clear of the others...

...beating Notre Belle Bete and Certain Lad by 7.5 and 8.5 lengths respectively with Poker Face and Savvy Victory a further 2 and 17.25 lengths back. That doesn't however tell the full story as only Saga really ran his own race and benefited from the three lowest drawn runners finishing in the first five home. Certain Lad and Savvy Victory were both hampered, although odds of 50/1 and 100/1 suggest they were never winning.

So, none won last time out, but Notre Belle Bete won three starts ago, Poker Face won the first three of his six outings to date and Savvy Victory won seven starts ago. Certain Lad last won eight races back and Saga's sole win from eleven efforts came on just his third appearance 22 months ago.

All five have, however, won over this trip, but none have raced here at Sandown before and they all raced in this grade 17 days ago!

CERTAIN LAD won a Group 3 contest on good to soft ground at York in August 2020 and ended his 2022 campaign with a decent third of ten in a Haydock Group 3 event. he returned to action in May of this year after 279 days off to run a creditable 3rd in a soft ground Class 2 handicap at Chester prior to his run in the Wolferton, where he was badly hampered.

NOTRE BELLE BETE started 2022 with a sequence reading 11913, but then lost his way under increasing weight before the addition of cheekpieces in November seemed to spark a renaissance and prior to the Wolferton LTO, his form in the cheekpieces read 22313, including winning a valuable Class 2 handicap at Newcastle on Good Friday. Transferring that form to the turf would be useful, but he is 0 from 15 on the Flat as opposed to 4 from 8 on the A/W.

POKER FACE is a lightly-raced (6 starts) 4 yr old who won his first three outings (2 x C5 & 1 @ C4), before a six month break last winter. He returned to action in April and was only headed inside the final furlong of the Gr3 Earl of Sefton Stakes at Newmarket, eventually finishing second. He faded late on next time out too, when trying to win a Gr2 at Chester from the front and has only raced at Royal Ascot since.

SAGA has made the frame in five of his ten Flat runs, but has only won a 7f, Class 3 maiden so far. That said, he only just failed (by a head) to win the 30-runner Britannia Stakes at Ascot a year ago and went down by the same margin at Newmarket in another Class 2 heritage handicap two starts ago. that was his first run for seven months and then ran really well at Ascot last time out, taking advantage of the low draw.

SAVVY VICTORY won over today's trip last April & August and was a length and a half clear of Certain Lad at Chester in May, when finishing second of nine at Chester, although Certain Lad was racing for the first time in over nine months. He was badly hampered in the Wolferton last time out, but has no real Class 1 form and arguably the weakest here on paper.

There is a suggestion that the course might dry out a little so for our view of Instant Expert, I've included form for both Good ground as well as Good/Good to Soft...

Notre Belle Bete's figures were always going to be poor, as he's 0 from 15 on turf, so we'll check the place stats shortly and the field's lack of success at Class 1 confirms my belief that is only Class 2 standard. Three of these have at least won on good to soft and Savvy Victory probably won't want it to dry out. Those place stats I mentioned look like this...

...suggesting that most of them will be happy if the groundstaff continue to water the track as they have been doing and based on the above, Poker Face probably edges the race for a place. As you'd expect with such a small field, there's no real advantage to be gained from the draw...

...although those drawn higher tend to make the frame more often and the PRB3 data points towards the higher draw again...

...so that's more good news for Poker Face. The pace breakdown of those races above show that hold-up horses are at a disadvantage here...

...with those racing further forward more likely to fill the frame. Sadly there's not much early pace in this field based on recent evidence and it might well be left to Poker Face to set the fractions again, as he did at Chester recently...

...whilst our pace/draw heat map seems to everyone a chance here, although Saga looks worst off...

Summary

I expect a cagey affair here with no real pace angle and a look at the market at 4pm had Saga as the 5/4 favourite some way clear of next best Poker Face at 11/4. Poker Face is the one that has ticked most boxes for me during my analysis and I'd much rather back a horse at 11/4 who has two decent group runs behind him than a 5/4 fav who is 1 from 10 on the turf. Obviously, if this pans out like the Wolferton did, then it's Saga's race to win/lose, but I'd rather side with Poker Face here.

Racing Insights, Thursday 06/07/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.30 Yarmouth
  • 3.30 Yarmouth
  • 4.25 Bellewstown
  • 4.45 Haydock
  • 7.35 Kempton
  • 7.40 Bellewstown

...and of the four UK races, the one with the most Instant Expert data to work with is the 7.35 Kempton, a 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-dmile on standard to slow polytrack...

None of these won last time out, but Kingori has two wins and a place from his three starts so far. Rhythm N Rock, Tiempo Star and Ashky have all won two of their last seven, but four of the field (Naval Commander, Fantasy Believer, Billy Mill & Two Tempting) have lost at least seven on the bounce (7, 8, 8 & 11 respectively!)

Naval Commander does at least drop two classes here, as does Ashky, whilst Smiling Sunflower is down one with Kingori, Bruno's Gold and He's A Gentleman going the other direction.

This will be a UK debut, yard debut and handicap debut for Lion's Mane, as well as a return from a lengthy (233 days) absence, but Kingori (also on hcp debut) and the consistent Flyawaydream have been away longer (258 & 280 days). This is also a first run for Naval Commander with a tongue tie and Ashky in cheekpieces.

All bar Lion's Mane, Flyawaydream and Smiling Sunflower have won over today's trip, but the latter has at least won over 7f here at Kempton before, whist Naval Commander scored here over 1m3f. Four of the field (Rhythm N Rock, Fantasy Believer, Billy Mill & Two Tempting) are former course and distance winners.

I said that this race had the most Instant Expert data from the 'free' UK races, but that doesn't mean it's good news...

...but it might help to rule some out.

Fantasy Believer is probably best suited, as he's the only one with no red blocks for either going, class, course or distance, but I've concerns over Naval Commander and Billy Mill generally and the field's lack of Class 4 success, although a few of them do actually have decent place records at this grade...

Billy Mill looks a different animal on place stats and if I was being brutal, I'd probably be focusing my attention on these five, just on that place data...

That's not to say the the winner and placers (bookies will pay four places here) are definitely in that five (we'll soon see), but you'd have to say they look more likely based on the numbers, but we've a big field here and the bare data from the Draw Analyser suggests that Two Tempting and Billy Mill might have a job on their hands from out wide...

...and the stall by stall stats would appear to back this up...

The associated pace/draw heat map, however, seems to set more stall on the pace of the race rather than the draw...

...and that will be because the pace analyser says...

So, we really don't want a hold-up horse and ideally we get one who could lead from a high or even low draw. If we look at the field's last four runs from a pace perspective, sort them into draw order and attach them to the pace/draw heat map, we get something like this...

...with no standout runner. What I think might happen here is that the consistent Flyawaydream might try to nick this race from the front and attempt to make all. He's a natural front-runner, who has yet to finish outside the first three home in any of his six starts and has won under today's jockey, so I'll add him to the five who looked most likely to make the frame from Instant Expert.

Summary

I've left myself with six runners (Tiempo Star, Two Tempting, Billy Mill, Kingori, Fantasy Believer and Flyawaydream) for four places and whilst I think that Kingori and Fantasy Believer might well be the pick of the bunch, I'm not rushing out to back them at 4/1 and 13/2 respectively. I think both have an excellent chance of making the frame, but those odds aren't E/W odds for me.

The same would therefore apply to Tiempo Star and Flyawaydream at 9/2 and 6/1 respectively, leaving me with just Two Tempting at 15/2 and Billy Mill at 10's. And whilst these two are probably the weakest pair of the half-dozen under consideration, it only takes one or two of the principals to fail to fire and you've got yourself a nice E/W bet. It wouldn't be big stakes here, but a small interest bet would work.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 05/07/23

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Apologies for the later than usual posting of the daily column, but I've been away all day on a training course and didn't get home until after 9pm!

But the show must go on and with that in mind, Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 4.35 Tipperary
  • 4.42 Musselburgh
  • 7.00 Bath
  • 7.35 Bath
  • 7.45 Tipperary

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated quite a few runners to consider...

...and with Ben Pauling's horses not only being in fine form of late, but also having a good course record over the past year, it seems right to look at his two runners above. Mole Court looks the standout runner in a mediocre Class 5 chase and is already priced accordingly (as low as 13/8), so let's focus on stablemate Gentleman Valley who goes an hour in a better looking looking contest. The 4.23 Worcester is a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed 2m7f on good ground, although a 141 yard rail movement takes it beyond 2m7½f (2m7.64f to be more precise!)...

Not only is our featured horse, Gentleman Valley the only LTO winner, he actually comes here on a hat-trick after wins at Warwick and Market Rasen in the last seven weeks or so, but he's now up a class, as are Go Chique, Mr Tambourine Man and bottom weight Court Master.

Go Chique was a runner-up LTO and has won two of her last four and Mr Tambourine Man is two from five, but Irish Prophecy, Polish and Nevilles Cross are winless in seven, ten and seven races respectively, inlcuding several incomplete runs.

Mr Tambourine Man races for the first time since wind surgery and Nevilles Cross wears a first-time visor, whilst the sole mare in the race, Go Chique hasn't raced in over seven months and might well need the run.

None of these have won here at Worcester before and although the card says five of them have won at a similar trip, Instant Expert says only three have won over hurdles at this kind of distance...

...and Gentleman Valley looks the best of a fairly poor set of numbers. Polish's 0 from 6 at the trip raises immediate questions, of course and further analysis shows that he has only made the frame in one of the six races...

In fairness, off a small sample size of races, most of these look like they'd be well suited/placed to make the frame, but you'd still have to say that Gentleman Valley was the one to beat so far on both recent form and overall form as above.

We've no draw to worry about of course, so let's move swiftly on to the pace data for similar past races and our Pace Analyser is fairly clear about what type of horse would go well here...

Prominent horses and leaders make the frame most often and half of those placers then go on to win, so ideally we'll be picking a horse in the upper reaches of the following pace profiles, based on the field's most recent outings...

Feature horse Gentleman Valley sits at mid-point and would be advised to run prominently like he did last out, but there could quite well be some early pace on and that might be too much for Go Chique after a lengthy lay-off.

Summary

Based on the above, it's the featured horse Gentleman Valley for me. He isn't quite as high on the pace chart as I'd like, but did win from a prominent position last time out. He's in great recent form and scored well on Instant Expert and his yard are in good nick and have done well here at Worcester over the last year. Fortunately me going to post around 5 or 6 hours later than usual hasn't affected the price, he opened at 5/2 and that's still available and also the price I think he should be.

As for next best, I'm not sure about the fav Polish at 9/4 from a hold-up position, so maybe Go Chique might hang on for a place.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 04/07/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...none of which really grab my attention. Thankfully, as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 3.17 Hamilton
  • 3.27 Brighton
  • 3.45 Tipperary
  • 7.20 Roscommon
  • 9.00 Ffos Las

...from which, despite the small field, the 3.17 Hamilton looks the best. It's a 6-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right handed 1m½f on good to soft ground...

The early (just after 2pm) opening show suggests that it could be a tight contest, with only Barley considered to be here to make up the numbers...

...and that might partially be because he's up in class here after three fairly poor efforts at Class 3. He is eased a pound, but you have to worry about his chances here. Top weight Austrian Theory is also up in class, despite only finishing 7th of 8 last time out, although he did win at this class/trip two starts ago.

Bottom weight Maysong is the sole LTO winner, having beaten the re-opposing pair Eilean Dubh (3rd) and Repertoire by 0.5 and 4 lengths respectively, but this pair are 9lbs and 12lbs better off here today, as Maysong isn't riden by his 7lb claimer. Repertoire did win over a mile at Class 4 three starts ago, but has toiled in this grade since.

Both EileanDubh and Barley wear first-time tongue ties, whilst it's a cheekpiece debut for Fantastic Fox, who along with Austrian Theory and Eilean Dubh are our three course and distance winners. The other three have yet to win here at Hamilton but have all scored over a similar trip.

All six have raced in the last 11 to 32 days, so no rustiness expected, nor are any thrown back in too quickly and we've no three year olds to muddy the waters with their weight allowances!

Further stats are available via Instant Expert, which says that only three of these have raced on good to soft ground before with just one successful, And we also find that Fantastic Fox's turf record at Class 2 really isn't very good...

The entire field are racing off marks 2 to 4lbs higher than their last winning marks, so there's little in it there. The Fox's 0/11 at Class 2 is a concern, as is Repertoire's 0 from 9. The other issue is Maysong failing to win any of seven attempts on good to soft ground, but he has managed to make the frame a few times...

...and whilst his win stats make me wary of backing him, his place data is probably the best on show, so a possible placer here? Mind you, unless something tells me to get on Barley, there'll be no E/W bet today, as 5/1 isn't long enough for me. Austrian Theory won this race last year but that was on good to firm, where he is 3 from 8 as opposed to his 0 from 11 elsewhere. Repertoire is the clear weak link on Instant Expert.

I don't expect any of these to be handed an advantage by the draw, as previous past contests here have gone like this...

...whilst the pace stats for those same races have really favoured those keen to get on with things...

...hold-up horses tend to struggle here from win a win and a place perspective and that's yet more bad news for Repertoire, based on his last four outings...

Summary

Repertoire was poor on Instant Expert and might well get left behind, based on his pace profile, so he's out. Maysong beat Eilean Dubh by half a length last time out and scored well on IE, but he's 9lbs worse off here and is another who might get outpaced, so he's gone too.

Austrian Theory won this last year and will probably attempt to win from the front here, but his record on anything slower than good to firm is abject and he has a tendency to run out of steam on these slower surfaces. All of which leaves us with three. Barley is unfancied by the early market and he's up in class after a series of poor runs in a lower grade. Surely he's not suddenly winning here?

So, almost by default, I've got Eilean Dubh and Fantastic Fox left to deal with and the latter simply isn't a Class 2 runner based on his past efforts, so I have to agree with the bookies by saying Eilean Dubh is the one to beat. Don't get me wrong, he's no standout here, but he's arguably the "least bad". A 9lb pull for a half length defeat is really beneficial and if he tracks the leader(s) as expected, he should win. 5/2 is probably about the right price, but I won't be lumping on in what looks a fairly mediocre race for a Class 2.

Next best might well be Maysong. Yeah, he's that 9lbs worse off here, but with an LTO win and two wins, two places from his last six, he might be the one for your forecast/exacta.

Racing Insights, Monday 03/07/23

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Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 4.10 Southwell
  • 6.45 Windsor
  • 7.00 Musselburgh
  • 7.15 Windsor

...from which, I'm going to look at the 6.45 Windsor, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...

Sterling Knight was a winner last time out and is three from five, bottom weight Expert Agent is denoted as a fast finisher and has won three of his last four, whilst only Silver Samurai and Dig Two have failed to win any of their last five outings (9 & 8 respectively to be precise).

Five of these (Lethal Nymph, Silver Samurai, LTO winner Sterling Knight, Mister Bluebird & Dig Two) are stepping up a class here whilst Silver Sumarai and Dig Two both sport a tongue-tie for the first time. Bottom weight Expert Agent is the sole 3 yr old in the field and gets a handy 6lbs weight allowance for that.

The entire field have all won at this trip already and four (Tanmawwy, Sterling Knight, Aphelios & Dora Penny) have won over course and distance, whilst Mister Bluebird has scored here over 5f. Aphelios hasn't raced for 75 days, but that shouldn't be an issue and the others have all been out inside the last two weeks to two months.

Instant Expert adds to the above data with details on six previous good to firm winners and three Class 2 victors...

...but this data doesn't have a standout runner, sadly. it does highlight the fact that Silver Samurai has struggled at going/class and that Mister Bluebird might not be suited by the 6f trip. A further look at the place stats suggests that Aphelios is an early contender for a place here...

...whilst Sterling Knight certainly gets both track and trip and Mister Bluebird's record at 6f might not be as bad as I first feared.

As you'd expect on a fast, straight 6f, there's very little (if any) advantage from the draw here...

...which leads us to our free feature, the PACE and those races above have tended to be won by those racing furthest forward...

Prominent runners win approximately 50% more often than those further back, whilst leaders win 50% more often than the prominent runners and go on to make the frame in almost half of their races, which based on this field's recent efforts...

...would seem to be bad news for the likes of Silver Samurai, Dora Penny and Expert Agent. LTO winner Sterling Knight changed tactics to win here over course and distance a fortnight ago, so I'd expect him to be further up that chart for this race, which will probably be led out by Mister Bluebird in the early stages.

Summary

Mister Bluebird is the likely leader here, which gives him a very good chance of at least making the frame, based on the pace stats for this track and trip. He was sharp enough to win here over 5f and his place stats were decent enough on Instant Expert, so he's be a good shout for the frame here. He doesn't, however, win often enough and I feel that if Sterling Knight runs as he did here a fortnight ago, he's the one to beat. He'll be up with the pace and is in good form.

Sterling Knight is currently 4/1, which might be a touch short, whilst Mister Bluebird's 11/2 is definitely too short for me to want to back him E/W and I agree with the early market that the likes of the 4/1 Aphelios is sure to be involved. None of the longer-priced (8/1 and bigger) horses really appeal to me here, either.

Racing Insights, Saturday 01/07/23

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Wow! The second half of the year is already upon us and it kicks off on a Saturday, whose free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated just one qualifier, as follows...

Thankfully I do also have our selection of daily 'free' races at my disposal...

  • 12.40 Newmarket
  • 1.57 Chester
  • 2.05 Newcastle
  • 2.50 Curragh
  • 3.50 Newcastle
  • 5.30 Lingfield

The 'free' list is headed by a Listed contest from HQ, but unexposed 2yr old fillies aren't really my thing and the Northumberland Plate has far too many (19) runners for my liking, but not long after the Plate comes a useful looking contest on the 'free' list at the same venue, so let's look at the 3.50 Newcastle today. It's an 8-runner (fingers crossed), Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard to slow tapeta...

Bottom weight Shimmering Sands was the only one of these to win last time out, but all his rivals have won at least one of their last seven outings. Qaasid is in good consistent form, finishing in the first three home in 8 of his last 9 nine starts (inc 2 wins) and he's the only previous course and distance winner in the field and also the only one to have raced at Class 3 last time out.

Elsewhere, Mr Curiosity, Thundering, Noble & Persist all drop in from Class 2, whilst the bottom three on the card, Cockalorum, Innse Gall and Shimmering Sands are all up in class. Aside from C&D winner, Qaasid, only Thundering has won here before, landing a 1m4½f handicap a little over a year ago, but he's one of two along with Mr Curiosity yet to win at today's trip.

The afore-mentioned Mr Curiosity might well need the run after 238 days off the track and at 273 days, you could say the same about Persist, whilst both of their rivals have raced in the past 5 to 7 weeks, bar Cockalorum who was in action at Pontefract last Sunday and will be running for the fourth time since the end of May!

Cockalorum has, in fact, competed 48 times already, whilst this will be just a fifth outing for Nobel and only his second in handicap company, but he did win his sole A/W outing. Instant Expert adds to the above data by informing us that a couple of these are running off marks considerably higher than their last win...

I've a feeling that the place stats might help us a little bit more in the way of data...

...but I'm not sure they clarify the picture for me! Good to see so much green, of course and this remains the course if we look at just A/W form...

...with the sole exception of Shimmering Sands, who tackles the A/W for the first time after ten runs on Turf. He's 3 from 3 over 1m2f including that win LTO, but he's up in class and weight and that allied to no A/W experience might just be too many unknowns here. He's drawn pretty centrally, though, in stall 4 of 8 and is likely to have to pass quite a few runners later on if he's wanting to win again, as the field's recent runs suggest he's probably going to be held up in the rear with the returning Persist...

A quick look at past similar races here says that Shimmering Sand's lower half draw is ideal here, but that his hold-up tactics haven't been the best approach here, as those tracking the leader(s) have fared best of all...

...which is probably better for the likes of Qaasid, just inside him in stall 3, whilst our pace/draw heat map looks like this with our runners superimposed on it...

Nobel is likely to set the pace, but Qaasid seems to have the ideal draw/pace profile here. Thundering will go off quickly, but he's in terrible form, whilst the draw might account for Cockalorum.

Summary

The pace/draw heat map says we should focus on Persist, Thundering, Qaasid and Noble. Noble's a little high in the draw and will be the target they aim for, he's also not in the best of form and has only one prior A/W outing, way back in December 2021. Qaasid, however, is in good nick, has the ideal pace/draw balance and is 2 from 3 on standard to slow and he's the one I'd want to be with here. he's a 5/1 shot in my book, so Bet365's price of 11/2 (at 4.40pm) is acceptable to me.

Of the others, Persist should go well and he'd be a real contender for me off his low draw if he'd had a run at some point in the last nine months and odds of 3/1 aren't appealing. The one at a longer price that might go well for E/W purposes could be Innse Galle near the foot of the weights. He has made the frame in 6 of 7 at this trip, placed twice in four Newcastle outings including two from three over course and distance (a 1-length defeat as runner-up in March) and although this is tougher than his usual races, he's not a bad E/W shout at 10/1.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 30/06/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded a couple of qualifiers...

...and this report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 5.10 Yarmouth
  • 6.05 Curragh
  • 7.00 Newmarket
  • 7.10 Newcastle
  • 7.25 Chester
  • 7.50 Curragh

...and of the four 'free' UK races and the two on my H4C list, the highest-rated is the 8.45 Newmarket, an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f (+25yds for rails) on ground that is currently good to soft...

The early (3.30pm) show from the bookies suggested a three horse race between Peace Man (2/1 fav), Like A Tiger (4/1) and First Sight (also 4/1) with no other runner shorter than 17/2. The bookies may well be right, but there's also the chance of an E/W bet from the challengers, so let's dive in...

Peace Man and First Sight both come here on a hat-trick, so at least one winning run will end here. None of the others managed to win last time out, but all bar Cap Francais have won won at least one of their last five runs.

Plenty of these are class movers today with only four (Gloucestershire, hat-trick seeking Peace Man, Queen of the Skies and bottom weight The Parent) having raced at Class 3 last time around. Of the other eight, three (Turntable, Encourageable & Cap Francais) drop down from Class 2, whilst Like A Tiger and Regal Empire were both last seen in Listed company. Two then step up in class here; Inigo Jones and hat-trick seeker First Sight, who move from Class 4 and 5 respectively.

Not only is First Sight up two classes here, this will be his turf debut after winning two from three on the A/W and this is his handicap debut. It's a second handicap run for Queen of the Skies and Like A Tiger, whilst Inigo Jones runs for Alice Haynes for the first time since leaving Jamie Osborne. Cap Francais aims to get off the cold list by wearing first time cheekpieces.

First Sight returns from 22 weeks off the track and both Gloucestershire and Inigo Jones also come off 100+ day breaks, but the rest of the field have been seen in the last eight weeks; The Parent raced as recently as the 17th of this month.

Turntable is the only previous course winner, having scored over a mile here back in July 2020, but has won over 1m, 1m1f and today's 1m2f trip on the Rowley course! Peace Man, Queen of the Skies, Inigo Jones, Like A Tiger and First Sight have all also won over a similar trip before now.

We have four three year olds in the race here and they're the four lowest weights (ie last four on the card, thanks to a very useful 12lbs weight for age allowance which moves Like A Tiger from 1lb shy of top weight all the way down to 8th in the weights, which could be very handy for him, First Sight, Regal Empire and The Parent.

It is, of course, First Sight's turf debut, so he has no stats to show on the following Instant Expert graphic, which also highlights three previous winners on good to soft ground and five Class 3 winners as well as the course/distance victors mentioned earlier...

There's not actually that much data to work from here and First Sight's lack of Flat activity is probably no worse than having tried and failed. He runs for the in-form (as always!) Charlie Appleby who has a great record here at HQ, so there's no doubt that the horse will have been well prepped. I'm not taking much from that graphic above, other than making a note of Cap Francais' poor record at the trip, but I will just have a quick look at place stats before moving on to the draw...

Cap Francais hasn't been that unlucky over the trip either and The Parent looks better suited at class 4, where he finished 313, as opposed to his three runs ending 463 at this level (3rd of 7 LTO). Turntable has fared better over 1m and 1m1f, but his record here at Newmarket is excellent and he really gets the good to soft ground. He's drawn quite high in 8 of the 11 stalls and this track/trip has favoured those drawn little lower in the past...

You'll notice that I've had to tweak a criteria a little to give myself some data to work with, but the stall by stall numbers seem to back up the graphic above...

...but whilst you'd want stalls 1 to 5 (good for the two jt 2nd favs), there's not a huge bias at play here, especially on the place stats and as is often the case in races beyond a mile the pace of the contest becomes more of a key factor and those races above have favoured those setting the fractions...

...which, based on the field's recent efforts, would appear to be more advantageous to Peace Man that for example Cap Francais...

Summary

Sadly I concur with the bookies and Peace Man is the one to beat here. he ticks the box on form, won at this grade LTO, gets the trip and is likely to lead. Stall 9 isn't ideal, but if you're good enough, you're good enough. He was still 2/1 with Hills at 4.40pm, when I checked back and that was the Oddschecker tissue price, so I suppose that's fair.

The two 4/1 shots Like A Tiger and First Sight will need their 12lb weight allowance to stay competitive here, as I'm not sure they're as good as the fav and one or both might well make the frame. I'm not sure they would without the allowance and if one/both falter, I'd probably side with bottom weight and Frankel-offspring The Parent to take advantage as my E/W possible at 17/2. Turntable would need to up his game here, but that's not beyond the realms of possibility and for those brave enough to back him, 16/1 could be a great price, especially with some firms paying four places.

I apologise for the predictable outcome, but sometimes you have to agree with the bookies!

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 29/06/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.00 Newmarket
  • 2.10 Newcastle
  • 4.20 Newmarket
  • 5.30 Newmarket

...from which, the 'best' looks like the 4.20 Newmarket, an 8-runner (fingers crossed for E/W bettors), Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

None of these won last time out, but Urban Sprawl was an excellent 3rd of 29 off this mark in the Britannia at Royal Ascot last week and also won three starts ago, both at a higher grade than this. Elsewhere wins are sparse, but Final Watch won five races ago whilst Chola Empire & Dancinginthewoods both won six back.

Urban Sprawl's excellent showing at Ascot was at a class higher than today and he now drops down, as does Final Watch from a run here at HQ on the Rowley when last home of eight. The bottom two on the card, G'daay and Dancinginthewoods, both step up a class, despite failing to make the frame at Class 4 LTO.

The latter of those, Dancinginthewoods, has been off the track the longest at 112 days and Final Watch's last run was eight weeks ago, but the other half dozen have all raced in the last three weeks with Urban Sprawl rested for just a week, of course. He runs off the same mark here and as the sole three year old in this field, gets a very handy 9lb weight allowance if that Ascot display wasn't impressive enough!

All eight have already won over this trip with both Mitrosonfire and Final Watch having scored over course and distance, whilst Dancinginthewoods is a 6f winner over the July course, but according to Instant Expert, his turf record at Class 3 and 7f leave quite a bit to be desired...

...but he is 6lbs lower than his last win. Able Kane has also toiled in this grade and G'daay is yet to set the world alight on turf over 7f, but Mitrosonfire has some respectable numbers to support his case and he probably catches the eye most here, whilst the place stats suggest that Final Watch might go well off the same mark as his last win...

Only Chola Empire has failed to register so far, but having made the frame 7 times from 8 A/W starts over this trip (inc 2 wins), I wouldn't necessarily rule him out just yet, so I approach the draw stats with a full complement of eight runners to choose from and our Draw Analyser (and PRB3 stats in particular) say there's very little advantage from any stall...

That's not entirely surprising though, really. A straight track shouldn't really favour any part of the draw. Stall 1 often does better because they have the rail to keep them straight and I'm guessing that those drawn widest (8 of 8 and 9 of 9) don't do as well because they've nothing on the other side of them to stop them straying. They do, however, make the frame as often (if not slightly more) as expected. This lack of any real draw bias thus shifts the emphasis onto running styles/tactics etc aka pace and my guess would be that over a straight 7 on quick ground, you want to be up with the leaders if not actually leading and this theory is amply backed up by the data from our Pace Analyser...

...which heavily favours those racing prominently and/or leading. Leaders don't always hold on to see the winners' enclosure, but over 45% of them make the frame, whilst almost 42% of those prominent runners making the frame go on to win, a very healthy conversion rate.

So, we're not too invested in the draw, but we would like a runner that 'gets on with it' and if we look at the field's most recent outings...

...it's another tick for Urban Sprawl with Mitrosonfire and Able Kane the ones most likely to try and keep him company. Final Watch may well have good place stats on Instant Expert, but he's going to struggle from so far off the pace.

Summary

It has to be Urban Sprawl, doesn't it? A Class 2 winner at Goodwood at the end of May and third in a big field at Royal Ascot last week off this mark, he's in great nick. He has a 9lb weight allowance and is the likely leader here. If he runs anything like he did last week, he could well tear this up. Sadly he's already priced at 5/4 with Bet365 and I'm not usually playing with big enough stakes to make those odds worthwhile, but if you're not averse to shorties, there might still be some value in the price, as he might well go off at odds on.

Of the rest, I'd love Chola Empire to replicate his 7f A/W form onto grass, but a best price of 9/2 gives me nothing to work with for an unproven turf runner. Final Watch could have been an E/W possible, but again 13/2 is too short for a hold-up horse, but I quite like the chances of Mitrosonfire here. He scored well on Instant Expert and probably needed the run at Goodwood last time out, but was only 5.5 lengths off the winner despite being off for six months and at 9/1 here could be worth an E/W play, whilst Able Kane is also interesting at 10's with the tongue tie back on and down below his last winning mark. Statistically, he's well suited to make the frame based on the going, his mark, the field size, the number of days since his last run and it being a straight track.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 28/06/23

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Wednesday's free GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss.

Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way! And as ever, we ask you to please refer to our User Guide for further information.

In addition to the TS report, we also have the following fully functional free racecards...

  • 1.58 Worcester
  • 3.28 Worcester
  • 4.28 Worcester
  • 5.30 Naas
  • 7.00 Naas
  • 7.20 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report ...

...have actually generated the following...

Both my TS qualifiers list and the selection of 'free' races are heavily Worcester-oriented, so we'll go there for the highest rated contest on the card, the 4.28 Worcester, an 11-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m4f on good ground...

Plenty of these have some good results in their more recent form line; Everyonesgame and Galata Bridge both won last time out, whilst Clear The Runway is 5 from 7, 6 from 9 and 7 from 11! Accidental Rebel is 4 from 6, Solo Saxophone is 2 from 5 and Finisk River has won four of his last six. Merry Berry is 4 from 5 and Jamacho is 3 from 5, 4 from 8 and 5 from 10. Conversely Luttrell Lad is winless in his last dozen outings and Celestial Horizon has lost his last eight, beating just nine runners across those races in which he failed complete four times!

Those two on the cold list are amongst just four runners (with Clear The Runway & Eritage) who ran at this grade last time out, as Solo Saxophone, Finisk River, Merry Berry and Jamacho all step up from Class 3, whilst our two LTO winners, Everyonesgame and Galata Bridge are up from Class 4 here. Accidental Rebel, however, drops down from a heavy defeat in a Group 2 race at Kelso back in March, although he did win in that grade two starts ago.

He hasn't raced for 116 days now and whilst he might well need the run, he hasn't been away as long as the likes of Finisk River, Eritage and Merry Berry, whose layoffs are 214, 312 and 382 days respectively. This quartet aside, the field have all raced in the last six weeks and this will be Everyonesgame's handicap debut after Class 4 wins in a maiden and a novice event in April & May of this year.

Luttrell Lad has already won here at Worcester in a 2m hurdle, Jamacho has won over hurdles twice here at 2m½f, whilst Clear The Runway landed a Class 2, 2m1f chase here back in October. He has also won over today's trip elsewhere, as have Eritage, Everyonesgame and Merry Berry, whilst Accidental Rebel, Solo Saxophone and Finisk River have all scored over track and trip, leaving just Celestial Horizon and Galata Bridge to have won neither!

Instant Expert says the entire field have at least one good ground hurdle/bumper win to their names and that two of them have already won at Class 2. We already know that Accidental Rebel is a former Class 1 winner, but so is Celestial Horizon...

Solo Saxophone and Accidental Rebel look well suited here with the latter really coming to the fore in handicap hurdles...

...but he is 10lbs higher than his last win, which could prove problematical and three of his four career wins have been at Class 4.

The recent pace profiles for this field are interesting, as it looks like we might well have four of them battling it out for the lead, whilst the rest sit off and watch until later...

Merry Berry likes good ground and has a decent record over this trip, so if this track/trip suits front-runners, then she might well be in luck. And having consulted our Pace Analyser...

...that leading quartet are likely to be of great interest.

Summary

Before I looked closely at the race, I liked Galata Bridge. Good ground suits him, he gets on well with today's jockey and he won nicely last time out, but he's up in weight, trip and class here, so I'll be leaving him alone. If Accidental Rebel runs like two starts ago and not like LTO, then he'd be difficult to beat, but at a best price of 5/1, there's not much value there for me and the same applies to the 6/1 offered about Merry Berry. She's suited by going, trip and pace, but I'd want to back her E/W and 6's are a bit short for that purpose.

Should the mare drift, then she'd be a valid E/W proposition, but until then I think Solo Saxophone is the one to do that. He has good numbers across Instant Expert, will be up with the pace and was sharpened up on the Flat recently. He'd need plenty of luck to win this, but at 11/1 is a solid E/W chance.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 27/06/23

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Apologies for a lack of Insights for Monday, I was at a surprise wedding on Sunday, but I'm back now and The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Casilli would be of most initial obvious interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 5.20 Beverley
  • 8.05 Newton Abbot
  • 8.25 Newbury
  • 8.40 Newton Abbot

And I think I'll have a look at the 6yr old mare Casilli from The Shortlist. She's the sole female in the 4.15 Beverley, which is an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

Bashful is the form horse here, having won his last two, but only Strawman, Freak Out and Shine On Brendan are winless in at least five (9, 9 & 10 respectively to be precise) outings.

Joint top weights Westernesse and Strawman are the only two to have raced at this grade last time out, as featured runner Casilli now drops down from Class 3 with the remainder of the field all stepping up from Class 5. This will be Bobby's Blessing's handicap debut after just two starts over 7½f, including a win here on debut, but this is a big step up in trip.

Westernesse and Shine On Brendan have won at neither track nor trip, but Bashful and Freak Out are distance winners at Newcastle, whilst Strawman, Casilli (of course) and Frankendael are all former course and distance winners.

Strawman and Bashful both raced as recently as last Wednesday and the entire field have been out in the last four weeks, so there shouldn't be any rustiness on display. Instant Expert will, of course, show why Casilli is on The Shortlist, but it also tells us that half of the field have won on good to firm ground, just three have won at Class 4 on turf and that a couple of these have a really poor record at the trip...

So the concerns here are...

GOING : Strawman, Freak Out & Shine On Brendan
CLASS : Freak Out
DISTANCE : Bashful & Freak Out

And before I even look at the place stats, I'm crossing Freak Out off the list! And having looked at the place stats...

...I'm also ruling Frankendael out of my thoughts, leaving me with runners in stalls 1 and 2 plus 5 to 8 inclusive for a contest that has, in the past, favoured those drawn in the lower half of the draw...

...which wouldn't normally be great news for Casilli drawn widest in #8, but those races show that horses drawn higher than stall 7 have done pretty well too...

Our stats for these races say that pace is more of a deal breaker than the draw, though, with a clear sign that those willing to set the fractions ultimately get rewarded...

Prominent runners do better than average too, but any further back in the field makes life difficult, which won't be good news for the likes of Casilli if her last four runs are anything to go by...

However, here lies a problem, because they can't all run to a pace score of 2.50 or lower, one (or more) of them will have to set the tempo of the race and if they go at a dawdle, then those most used to coming from off the pace might well be the ones to side with.

Summary

The draw stats didn't really give me much help, whilst the pace data suggests the possibility of a falsely run race. However, I can see why Westernesse is the current 5/2 favourite. He does tend to race up with the pace (ignore LTO, he stumbled out of the stalls and was awkwardly away), he's got a good low draw and has eight top three finishes on the bounce.

Do I want to back him at 5/2?  Not really, even though he's the likeliest winner in my eyes. To be honest, I'd want him to be a point (or more!) longer in the market, so I'll leave him alone. That, of course, doesn't mean that you have to. Bobby's Blessing is next best at a high of 7/2 and that also seems a bit skinny for a horse with just two runs under his belt and now up in trip by 2.5 furlongs, so I'll skip him too in favour of an 11/1 E/W bet with Skybet (10's elsewhere) on The Shortlist horse Casilli. Yeah, she's not in prime form, but her draw is fine, her hold-up approach might not be horrific in a pace-less contest and she's best suited by conditions. She was a little more than two lengths outside the placings here over course and distance last time out, but is now 2lbs and 1 class lower here and might well be the value option.

Racing Insights, Saturday 24/06/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated qualifiers as follows...

30-day form

1-year form

5-year course form

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.42 Perth
  • 2.17 Perth
  • 3.17 Newmarket
  • 3.34 Ayr
  • 4.20 Ascot
  • 8.00 Limerick

Clearly the best of the TJC report / free races has to be the Hardwicke Stakes, so my last column of the week will focus upon the 4.20 Ascot, an 8-runner, Group 2 flat contest for horses aged 4 and over. It's worth over £140k to the winner, who'll tackle a right handed 1m4 on good to firm ground...

I suspect that Hukum will be fairly short here and that the market will also like Frankie's mount, Free Wind, but that might opn up a nice E/W option for us even if I end up with those two as my first picks from a field in which only Ardakan, Changingoftheguard and Deauville Legend failed to win last time out.

All of them raced at Class 1 last time around and Ardakan wears first-time cheekpieces on his UK debut. He has yet to win over this course or trip, but he's not alone, as West Wind Blows also fits that description. Deauville Legend, Grand Alliance and Free Wind have already won over this trip elsewhere, whilst Changingoftheguard, Hukum and Pyledriver have all won Class 1 races over course and distance with the latter's triumph in last year's King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes the pick.

That said, this race might just be a pipe-opener for Pyledrive to attempt to retain that crown, as he hasn't raced since that win 336 days ago and he might well need the run. Mind you, he was the runner-up in last year's Coronation Cup (behind Hukum) after another long absence. Deauville Legend hasn't raced since last November's Melbourne Cup, so he might be rusty too but the remainder have all raced this season.

Pyledriver is best off at the weights here, as he's rated 2lbs higher than Hukum with Free Wind next best. She's the only female in the race and her 3lbs weight allowance bring her to within 6lbs of Pyledriver. Worst off looks like Grand Alliance, rated some 18lbs worse than Pyledriver.

As you'd expect for a race of this magnitude, most of the field have already performed well in similar past contests and we can see this via Instant Expert...

Ardakan has no UK form, of course, but his overseas form doesn't suggest he'd be likely to win here and with Grand Alliance's numbers clearly the worst above, I'm ready to eliminate him from my enquiries too, leaving me with six to consider. Grand Alliance is drawn in stall 2 and our draw stats suggest that his low draw would also have counted against him here...

...with stalls 4 to 7 producing the most winners...

...although the place stats for stalls 8 & 9 will give hope to widest drawn Free Wind, who likes to race quite prominently tracking the leaders, but she's unlikely to lead here, as the likes of Changingoftheguard, Pyledriver and West Wind Blows are likely to battle it out early on if recent outings are anything to go by...

What is apparent here is that aside from mid-division runners faring really badly, horses van win from any draw and with any running style, as reflected in the pace/draw heatmap...

...which applied to our field looks like this...

It's always dangerous to rule out an A P O'Brien horse ridden by Ryan Moore, but I fear that Changingofthe guard might well do too much early if he has company/competition for the lead and on that basis, I'm ruling him out here and he did fade away last time out. I've already decided against Grand Alliance and Ardakan, of course and I think Deauville Legend might struggle too, especially based on the pace/draw stats.

Summary

I've eliminated four of the eight runners so far, leaving myself with Hukum, Pyledriver, West Wind Blows and Free Wind. West Wind Blows is arguably the weakest of the four, having not won higher than Listed company, but if one of the other trio fails to fire, you could have yourself a nice E/W bet at 20/1.

Of that trio, I don't think there's that much between them, but this is probably a warm-up event for Pyledriver and at current odds of 15/2, it'd just be a small E/W bet, leaving me to pick between the 2/1 fav Hukum and Frankie's 5/2 Free Wind. There's surely very little between them and they're both in good nick, but the way Frankie is riding right now, I'd have to just about side with Free Wind.

Racing Insights, Friday 23/06/23

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Apologies for a lack of a column from me yesterday, I was ultimately defeated by technology, logistics and time.

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have, sadly, produced no qualifiers, but our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 4.20 Ascot
  • 4.45 Redcar
  • 6.40 Musselburgh
  • 7.05 Newmarket
  • 7.10 Down Royal
  • 7.45 Down Royal

...from which the first on the list is clearly the pick, but Matt's team of assembled experts are previewing elsewhere on the site, so this humble little column will turn its attention to Flat Racing HQ for the 7.05 Newmarket, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good/good to firm ground...

Top weight Greysful Storm and the fast finishing Never Ending both won last time out, but the former does now step up a class, as do Golspie and The Jackler, whilst bottom weight Golden Maverick is up two classes.

We've quite a few that are unxposed in handicaps with this being a handicap debut for Golspie, Never Ending and The Jackler, whilst it's only Feud's second attempt.

He's also been off the track the longest, but a 7-week break shouldn't be the reason he can't win here and the rest of the field have all had near enough a fortnight or more to recover from their last run.

The top two on the card are the only ones to have won at this trip and none of the nine have won here before, as shown on Instant Expert, which also shows 3 winners on similar ground conditions and four Class 4 winners...

There's not much data there for us to build up a clear enough picture, so we should switch to the place stats...

...which lead me to suggest that Feud, The Jackler and Golden Maverick won't be featuring much in my thoughts from this point forward. Removing those three from the equation also takes away the two widest drawn runners, which might not be a bad thing based on these draw stats...

...that point to the first four stalls being the preferred place to run from...

...which would be good news for Mighty River, Never Ending and Golspie who occupy the first three stalls. The pace stats for those same races then go on to say that the chances of winning this race increase the further forward a horse runs and that those racing prominently actually make the frame slightly more often than leaders. Based on the field's last few runs...

...I'd expect Mighty River to be bang up with the pace as he shoots out of stall 1 and this pace/draw combination represents the best chance for horses to win here...

Summary

Low draw and fast starts are the order of the day here and that's Mighty River. He's in good nick (2nd over this trip on the Rowley LTO) and has won at the trip, so he'd be the one to beat for me. If he does get out quickly, I suspect he might well drag Never Ending along with him, whilst further down the draw order, the in-form Island Star could very well have something to say in the outcome.

No odds available at 3.10pm on Thursday, so I'll revisit later when I check the price of possible E/W runner John Chard VC who has led in a couple of his last four outings.

Mighty River and John Chard VC opened up at 7/1 and 12/1 respectively, which were decent enough prices IMO.

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