Tix Picks, Saturday 14/09/24

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I'm told there was a nice little profit from my first crack at the Tix ticket builder yesterday, so hopefully it wasn't just beginner's luck. Saturday's placepots can be played via Tix at Bath, Chester, Doncaster, Lingfield and Musselburgh...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

That's a huge pot on offer at Donny, but I'll leave that to the big boys and head the right side of the Pennines for a trip to the Roodee, where I'm expecting tricky contests on testing heavy ground for these races...

Leg 1 : 1.35 Chester, a 7-runner, Class 2, 2yo maiden stakes over 7f…

No previous winners on show, of course, but Noble Phoenix (3rd), Sir Peter Fossick (2nd) and Rock Diva (3rd) all finished in the frame and Tactical Plan has been placed in three of his last four including finishing third here in a nursery over course and distance two starts ago and was also a soft ground runner-up at Brighton in June and is one of only two runners (Itsneverjustone was 5th of 11 LTO) to have run on soft ground; none have tackled heavy!

The trainer snippets on the card show that Andrew Balding’s runners have a good record of making the frame on their second start, so that’s another tick for Noble Phoenix

…whilst on a track where front-running is often the key, I suspect the in-form Sir Peter Fossick will attempt to set the pace if his three career runs so far are anything to go by…

So, with all that in mind and a safety first approach, I'm taking runners (2) Noble Phoenix, (3) Sir Peter Fossick, (5) Tactical Plan and (7) Rock Diva.

Leg 2 : 2.05 Chester, an 8-runner, 3yo+ listed race over 1m4½f…

La Yakel was a winner three weeks ago and like Star Harbour has two wins and a runner-up finish from his last four outings. Likely favourite Al Qareem might not have won any of six starts since landing this race last year and then a Group 3 at Ascot back in October, but he has been a runner-up in three Gr 3 races in that six-race cold spell, so I wouldn’t necessarily rule him out here based purely on wins.

His ability to make the frame is clearly the best on show here and all three runners mentioned above (plus Cristal Clere) have raced and placed on heavy ground already, but Al Qareem is the only one of the four without a heavy ground win…

La Yakel's hopes of making the frame are boosted by his yard's success with LTO winners with over 46% of them getting placed next time out...

...whilst the pace data points towards Al Qareem and Star Harbour setting the tone of the race...

There might not be much between shorties (1) Al Qareem and (6) La Yakel here on heavy ground, so I’ll have to take both for insurance, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if (7) Star Harbour ran a big race to outrun his fairly long odds.

Leg 3 : 2.40 Chester, a 13-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 2m…

It’s not a particularly good renewal of this race this year, but we do have last year’s 1-2 on show as Tashkhan attempts to see Emiyn off again and he’s actually better off at the weights this time around which will help, as will be hoped from his first-time visor. That said, Emiyn comes here in much better form having made the frame in each of his last two runs and three of his last five, making him one of the more in-form runners in a field containing just one LTO winner, Spirit Mixer.

Tashkan and Emiyn have both won on heavy ground before, a feat only matched by Goobinator from their rivals and it’s Emiyn who looks the pick of the pack from a 2yr place perspective, although Vera Verto now becomes of note too…

 

I’m also always looking out for stats pointing to a 50% or better place strike rate and for Tashkan the 30-day trainer/jockey combo have 7 wins and 4 further places from 22 runs, taking another box for this class-dropper.

So, it might be a little unimaginative, but I’m with (1) Tashkan and (4) Emiyn and wary of (8) Vera Verto. I could consider Spirit Mixer & Roberto Escobar, but then things start getting a little out of hand!

Leg 4 : 3.20 Chester, a 9-runner, Class 4, 2yo nursery over 5f…

A really competitive looking sprint here where the top seven in a nine-runner market might be pretty closely matched on price, which does’t always help us.The two Invincible fillies (Song & Annice) both won on their last outing, but all nine runners have won at least once already, but Ardennes and Teej A have yet to win over this trip.

Teej A has, however, won here at Chester, landing a 6f maiden back in May, whilst Fuji Mountain is our sole course and distance winner, having won a Class 4 Novice event here in July and he now drops back to this grade after two Class 1 outings.

Invincible Annice is the only runner in the field to have raced on heavy ground, winning at Hamilton over 5f ten days ago and she’s got a great draw here in stall 2, but the pace in the race is likely to come from Invincible Song in the next stall or from Ardennes from out wide with Kodibeat and Fuji Mountain also handily placed. With stalls 7 & 8 having early pace, that’s likely to cut Teej A and Jm Jhingree out of things whilst the runners in stalls 2 to 4 will probably do likewise to Pont Neuf on the rail.

Of the top four on the pace chart, I’m not that keen on Kodibeat if truth be told, but I’m struggling to separate the other three and I do like Invincible Annice too, so it looks like the perms are getting bigger, as I think I need to take all of (1) Fuji Mountain, (4) Ardennes, (5) Invincible Song and (9) Invincible Annice!

Leg 5 : 4.05 Chester : a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap over 1m2½f…

Another competitive-looking affair (I think I've picked a tough meeting here!) where more than half of the field seem like they'll go off in the 3/1 to 6/1 price bracket. None of these come here on the back of a win, but both Paddy The Squire and Stressfree have been in the frame in each of their last three races (five in fact for Paddy!), so they’re the ‘form’ horses, I suppose. Again, we’ve little experience/success on heavy ground as referenced by Instant Expert…

…where City Streak, Paddy The Squire and Stressfree are the standouts and it’s the latter who is our only heavy ground winner. And if we're looking for stat pointers (50%+ place SR), then Stressfree comes to mind again...

...making it really hard for me to ignore him, so it's going to be (5) Paddy The Squire and (7) Stressfree for me here, but I might regret omitting City Streak.

Leg 6 : 4.40 Chester : a 13-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 7½f…

And we round off with a big field handicap which again looks like being a tight contest. Paws For Thought and Transitioning both won last time out, the latter as recently as yesterday here over course and distance and both of them have won two of their last four, making them of immediate interest. Yermanthere also won last time out, albeit for just his second win in three years, whilst Phoenix Passion was 5th of 11 on the A/W at Kempton, ending a run of five straight victories and his career Flat handicap form reads 14111, including a heavy ground success at Goodwood back in May.

A quick look at the 2-year win records also show Paws For Thought, Transitioning and Phoenix Passion in a good light…

...whilst I've used the place stats to narrow the field down to...

...and with the top end of the pace chart looking like this...

...it makes sense for me to take (1) Paws For Thought, (12) Transitioning and (13) Paws For Thought in the finale, giving me an overall selection of...

Leg 1: horses 2, 3, 5 & 7!

Leg 2: horses 1, 6 & 7

Leg 3: horses 1, 4 & 8

Leg 4: horses 1, 4, 5 & 9!

Leg 5: horses 5 & 7

Leg 6: horses 1, 12 & 13

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good luck, everyone and I hope you have a great weekend. I'm travelling from Legian to Ubud today and I'll be back with you all on Monday morning.

Chris 

 



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Tix Picks, Friday 13/09/24

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Friday's placepots can be played via Tix at Chester, Doncaster, Sandown and Salisbury...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

There’s a bumper pot available at Doncaster, so let’s head there where the going is expected to be good/good to soft and the first of our six races is…

Leg 1 : 1.50 Doncaster, an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6½f
Shadow Dance has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last five outings, Subsequent has won three of his last four and East India Dock is three from six with all three of them winning last time out and I suspect this will be a three horse race here.

The 3yo Subsequent steps up in class here, but his yard have been amongst the winners of late…

…as have the team behind East India Dock, who’ll also benefit from a 10lbs weight allowance as a 3yr old…

Of the three, East India Dock has a better looking Instant Expert profile than the other two, but that’s down to a lack of relevant races….

And when we look at the pace/draw heat map, it’s Shadow Dance that catches the eye in what might end up being a falsely run race.

From this race, I’ll be taking runners 1 & 8, Shadow Dance and East India Dock.

Leg 2 : 2.25 Doncaster, a 7-runner, 2yo Listed race over 7f
Mubaker, Jonquil and God of War all won last time out, but now step up 1, 3 and 4 classes respectively. Symbol of Honour was a decent 6th of 22 in the Coventry at Royal Ascot, beaten by less than a length and a similar run here puts him right in the mix on his first run after being gelded. He did win his penultimate outing, though.The Waco Kid is also interesting despite being unplaced in his two Class 1 runs since winning at Newbury in July. He posted solid efforts at both Goodwood and York, but it was Oisin Murphy who rode him to victory at Newbury and he’s back in the saddle today, hoping to land yet another winner for Hugo Palmer…

Pace/Draw ticks boxes for LTO winner Mubaker and Symbol of Honour...

...and in a race where there's not a great deal to go off and little to choose between several of the runners, I'll take one fancied runner Symbol of Honour and one at a more value-type price in The Waco Kid, so numbers 6 and 7 on your cards.

Leg 3 : 3.00 Doncaster, an 11-runner, 2yo Group 2 contest over 5f
This looks like a really good/competitive renewal of the Flying Childers with plenty coming here in good form, including LTO winners Tropical Storm, Zayer and Coto de Caza who comes here on a hat-trick. That said, none of this field have raced more than five times before today and all have won at least once, as between them they have made the frame 27 times (inc 15 wins) from just 40 starts with Aesterius placing in three of four and Magnum Force in all three runs.

From a trainer form perspective, Tropical Storm’s yard have 31 wins and 31 further places from 155 runners here at Doncaster since the start of 2018, including 10 wins and 8 places from 46 at Class 1 and their recent overall form is good, too.

Aesterius is the one who has produced the best results so far under today's expected conditions...

...so I'm going to take (1) Aesterius on place form and Instant Expert and (8) Tropical Storm on horse/trainer form, whilst it would be rude of me to ignore (4) Big Mojo after the way he landed the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood recently.

Leg 4 : 3.35 Doncaster, a 6-runner, 3yo+ Group 2 contest over 2m2f

Sweet William is the obvious placer here, having never failed to finish in the first three home in all 13 career starts and when you factor in the fact that his jockey Robert Havlin is not only in decent recent form, but also has a great record for the Gosdens over the last few years (61.7% place strike rate), then Sweet William has to be a solid picks here, but I’m sure the market will reflect that too.

The backup plan for many punters will be stablemate Gregory, but I’ve still got a bit of a soft spot for the oldest horse in the race, Trueshan who won this race last year. He was, admittedly, four lengths behind the afore-mentioned Gosdens pair last time out, but he probably wasn’t suited by ground quicker than he’ll face today and Instant Expert paints him in a really good light…

So, that's runners 4 (Sweet William) and 5 (Trueshan) for leg 4

Leg 5 : 4.10 Doncaster, a 7-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ fillies handicap over 1m4f

Bint Al Daar has two wins and two runner-up finishes from her last four outings and is the only runner in the race not stepping up in class and in a race with no weight allowances, she’d actually be my pick to go on and win the race, but the in-form Cabrera gets 8lbs here as a 3yo and that will make her a hot property in the market in what is is possibly going to be a two-horse race.

A quick look at Instant Expert not only affirms Cabrera’s chances, but also raises questions of most of her rivals…

...whilst the pace/draw heat map seems to favour low drawn runners irrespective of running style

...and with both of these horses drawn inside the first three stalls, the picks have to be (3) Bint Al Daar & (4) Cabrera

Leg 6 : 4.45 Doncaster, a 9-runner, Class 2, 2yo maiden fillies race over 7f

And we close with probably the toughest race to call, so if we're still in the game at this point, we might need some luck.

Only three of the field have even raced before with Berning Hot and Kebili both finishing seventh on their debuts, whilst Whirl has finished fourth and the fifth, suggesting that it might not take much to beat any of this trio.

Of the newcomers, the one that catches my eye first is Kingsclere, a full sister to 2020’s 2000 Guineas winner Kameko, whilst fellow debutante Gulya is a Night of Thunder filly whose half-sister Maroof was a winner at trips up to a mile.

I suspect that these two will be amongst the main players, but at longer odds, I think the likes of Coma Cluster (Sir Michael Stoute has a 30.8% strike rate with 2yo debutants over the last year) and Like A Vision (the O’Meara/Tudhope axis is strong right now) could well get involved.

As with any of these types of races, the market is often a good indicator of things might pan out, so I’ll take the un-named favourite for the place pot along with runners (3) Coma Cluster, (4) Gulya, (6) Kingsclere & (7) Like A Vision.

So that gives me...

Leg 1: horses 1 & 8

Leg 2: horses 6 & 7

Leg 3: horses 1, 4 & 8

Leg 4: horses 4 & 5

Leg 5: horses 3 & 4

Leg 6: horses 3, 4, 6 & 7 plus the fav!

...and here's how I'd play them...

 

Wish me luck, I think I might need it!
Chris

 



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Tix Picks, Thursday 12/09/24

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Thursday's placepots can be played via Tix at Doncaster, Epsom and Newcastle...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And whilst it's a bumper pot at Donny, I'm not quite ready for four 2yo races, of which the first two have a total of 36 runners! So, I'm seeking the relative safety of the downs with a look at the Epsom card where the going is said to be soft, starting with...

Leg 1 : 2.00 Epsom, a 7-runner, Class 4, 2yo Novice Stakes over 7f
As ever with 2yo novices, not much to work with, but Bold Impact has made the frame in all three starts so far. His yard are in decent nick and have a good record over the last five years at this venue…

Nidaami also made the frame last time out and his yard have a place strike rate in excess of 50% over the last fortnight/month.

It’s unsurprising that this pair will head the market and they’d be the ones I’d focus on too. Of the unraced runners, Luna Girl (by Sea The Stars & Isango) was a 34,000 gns foal and a €95,000 yearling and looks good on breeding, but is, of course unproven.

Leg 2 : 2.35 Epsom, a 15-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap also over 7f
Roscioli comes here in the best form (212 in his last three) whilst Gdaay and King Cabo both won their penultimate outings. Marlay Park won this race in both 2021 and 2023 with Hodler winning it in 2022, whilst Instant Expert suggests Redredrobin and Optiva Star might run big races too…

...whilst Beau Jardine will certainly like the underfoot conditions. Of a limited number of similar races, those drawn more centrally have fared best in the past, whilst those prepared to dictate the terms of the race have also done well and with a pace/draw make-up as follows...

...that's G'daay, Roscioli, Marlay Park, King Cabo and Red Mirage on draw and King Cabo, Red Mirage, The Caribbean and Larado on pace. Counting back, King Cabo has been mentioned more than the others with G'daay, Marlay Park, Red Mirage and Roscioli also ticking more than one box.

I didn't really want to take five runners from one race, but I think that's where I'm at here, although the better/longer odds will probably come from G'daay and King Cabo.

Leg 3 : 3.10 Epsom, a 9-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 1m2f
No LTO winners here in what initially looks like a 4-horse race between (in card order) Thursday, Imperial Cult, Mrembo and Daphne May. Thursday and Daphne May were both runners-up last time, though, whilst Imperial Cult has two wins and a runner-up finish in his last four outings.

Of this quartet, Imperial Cult has yet to win over this trip but he’s the only one not stepping up in class, whilst Daphne May is the only previous course winner, having scored over 1m4f here in July 2023 and then over course and distance four weeks later, although she has been beaten in fourteen runs since that second success.

That said, she is the pick of the four on Instant Expert…

The draw here is said to favour low/mid drawn runners, so that counts against Imperial Cult...

...whilst hold-up horses make the frame most often...

...suggesting that Thursday and possibly Daphne May could benefit...

...and based on the above, I think it's this pair of Daphne May and Thursday that I'll go with for leg 3.

Leg 4 : 3.45 Epsom, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap over 1m4f

Most of this field are stepping up in class, but Miller Spirit drops two classes after finishing 4th of 8 at Goodwood last time around. Parramount was a runner-up on his last start and Haliphon is turned back out just a week after winning on good to soft ground at Haydock. Enochdhu is also of interest here because his yard is in good nick, have a good record here at Epsom and do well with horses turned back out quickly…

and I think that these four would form my shortlist. I suspect Haliphon will go off fairly short after last week's win, so we might need to look elsewhere if we wanted a bit of value with Enochdhu and Parramount the more obvious candidates from that perspective, whilst our pace/draw heat map suggests Haliphon and Parramount are the ones here...

You can make a case for all four, but I definitely want Parramount in my selections based on his last run, his pace/draw heat map and also the place stats on Instant Expert...

...and these also point to Enochdhu running well on the soft ground, so I'll take runners 4 and 6 (Parramont & Enochdhu) here.

Leg 5 : 4.20 Epsom, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo handicap also over 1m4f

Dubawi Time has finished 122 in three efforts over today’s trip and he alongside Small Fry (a win and a runner-up finish in his last two) are the form horses here. Dubai Time is actually the only runner in the race to win over this trip and with his yard in such good form, he’s a pick for me here…

I'd be quite happy to take just the one runner from this race, especially as he leads the way on the place pace/draw heatmap...

If you wanted backup picks, both Small Fry and Bittalemon have made the frame in both of their last two outings and both drop in class here and if Bittalemon's first-time blinkers do the trip, he could be the next best to Dubawi Time.

Leg 6 : 4.50 Epsom, a 7-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 1m½f

There’s only really Desfondado and New Heights that I’m not keen on here initially.

Local Bay has made the frame in five of his last six, winning four times including last time out, so that’s a major positive, whilst Finn Russell also won his last outing. The fast finishing We’renotreallyhere has finished 213 in his last three outings, but is up in class here today, so that might make life difficult for him, whereas our sole course and distance winner Local Bay actually drops in class.

Finn Russell’s claims are backed up by some decent stats for trainer form, jockey form and trainer/jockey form…

...and I think that those stats above and his LTO win are enough for me to go with Finn Russell along with Local Bay, who I find difficult to overlook here, even of the market seems to disagree.

I'm still having some technical difficulties out here (the Indonesian internet police aren't keen on gambling sites), so still no ABCX perms from me, but to summarise, I've identified the following as runners of interest...

 

Leg 1: horses 2 & 3

Leg 2: horses 3 & 5 (plus possibly 1, 4 & 14 if you're doing the perms)

Leg 3: horses 3 & 8

Leg 4: horses 4 & 6

Leg 5: horse 1 (plus possibly 3)

Leg 6: horses 2 & 6

Fingers crossed!

Chris 



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Tix Picks, 11th September 2024

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Good Morning, everyone! As promised/threatened, I'm back in the Tix hot seat for a crack at Wednesday's racing for you.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And whilst the biggest pots are at Carlisle, there are some big/tricky fields so as I'm in my infancy with Tix Picks, I'm going to focus on the A/W card at Lingfield for today...

Leg 1 : 2.05 Lingfield

In card order, this looks like a three-horse contest between Honour Your Dreams, Master Dandy and Savannah Smiles who all drop in class today. Master Dandy was a runner-up LTO and the other two both come here off the back of wins. All three have won over 6f already and Savannah Smiles is a course and distance winner. Honour Your Dream is trained by Mick Appleby whose horses are in great form (8/32 in the last fortnight), but it’s Savannah Smiles who catches the eye on Instant Expert…

The pace/draw heat map for this race suggests the further forwrd a horse tuns, the greater the chance of making the frame...

...and with the field's last four average pace scores looking like this...

...Honour Your Dreams and Savannah Smiles look more likely than Master Dandy, so I'm siding with this pair.

Leg 2 : 2.35 Lingfield

Four runners, one debutant. Of the three with the benefit of a run Hello Miss Lady’s runner-up finish at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago is the best on offer. She’s the clear 2/5 favourite and it’s her or the highway here, I think!

Leg 3 : 3.05 Lingfield

A 9-runner nursery with two LTO winners in the shape of Matharu and Lazieelunch, whilst Thiscouldbefun was placed third; Inconspicuous has also already won a race and I’d probably want to focus on these four based on results, although Enchanted Eye has two runner-up finishes from his last three runs and now wears cheekpieces for the first time, which will hopefully help his cause.

Lazieelunch actually beat Matharu last time out with the latter then going on to win, but he’s a pound worse off this time, so they should be pretty closely matched. All five of the shortlist seem to be suited by the pace/draw heat map here...

Enchanted Eye seemingly benefiting the most on this evidence and I think I'll take him based on his profile and take one of either Lazieelunch and Matharu to go with him. When I looked back at the card, I saw this...

...so I'll take Lazieelunch and Enchanted Eye here.

Leg 4 : 3.40 Lingfield

Whoopee! A 2yo maiden fillies race! Bit of a cop out here, but Darn Hot Mystery, Sofia The First, Lillys Bet and Sixteen One all made the frame LTO and are the only past placers in the race. Sixteen One looks the one to beat here, as she only went down by a head on debut, almost five lengths clear of the third placed horse, but her price will reflect the here. To be honest, I’d probably put all four down but if restricting myself to two picks, Lilly’s Bet looks consistent.

Leg 5 : 4.15 Lingfield

More familiar territory here with an 8-runner handicap for 3 yr olds, most of whom come here in mediocre (or worse!) form, except Time Tested, whose last three results read 121 including a course and distance win here last time out. He’s going to go off mightily short here today and it’s him or bust for me on this one, based purely on form alone.

Leg 6 : 4.50 Lingfield

And we round off with another 3yo handicap, this time it's a 6-runner, Class 5 contest over 7f, where the filly Whoop Whoop is the only LTO winner.

Faster Bee and Berry Clever are still maidens after 13 & 11 attempts respectively, so I’m setting them aside here. Of the other four runners Sonmarg and Cherry Hill have made the frame five time and four times from their twelve starts.

A quick look at the pace/draw heat map suggests Cherry Hill is the worst positioned here of the four I'm still considering...

, so I'll set him aside too, leaving me with LTO winner Whoop Whoop, Sonmarg who has the highest place strike rate and front-runner Union Island. I'm definitely taking Whoop Whoop and with Union Island stepping up in class after two poor efforts, Sonmarg is the second pick here.

Apologies for the post being later than I/you would have wanted. I've been beset by all manner of tech issues as I grapple with Indonesian web restrictions, but I'll aim to be earlier tomorrow!

Chris



Try Tix for Better Tote Returns

Tix Picks, 10th September 2024

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A small winner on Saturday and a loser yesterday, and on we go to Tuesday. Chris is 'transitioning' from cold Lancashire to warm, sunny Bali for... checks notes... the next four weeks! Lucky bugger. He'll still be helping out from there, though, so he will be taking Tix Picks forward after this one from me...

 

 

What is Tix and how can I put it to work for me?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers on smart play can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

 

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a jackpot rollover expected to surpass £50,000. A winning penny line could pay £500+, and I'll be having a tilt (though not until much closer to the off).

 

 

Tix Picks meeting / pool: Newcastle, placepot

As mentioned I'll be having a crack at the jackpot later, but I want to see as many of the market 'vibes' as I can before entering that pool. Meanwhile, you'll get a feel for my thinking via a placepot play on the same Newcastle card.

Leg 1:  Grant Tuer is in bamboozling form just now and Caledonian Dream went on to my tracker in July. Since then, he's gone from the front twice in handicaps and been a little flat each time. My view is he probably needs a more patient ride, which he might get here; but without knowing that, it's a bit of a guess up. Ollie Stammers is again in the saddle. I'll be slightly frustrated if he is waited with and comes through to win, but I won't be surprised. B.

Interestingly, perhaps, Tuer also saddles the second favourite, Shielas Well, which former champion Silvestre de Sousa rides. She's been running on in each of her most recent three spins, all at a furlong shorter, and with SdS up top is expected to go well. A.

Top weight Himself is the other for early money but, honestly, I cannot see why. A flat enough effort over six here then a nothing performance first time in a handicap last time; and nothing in the trainer's MO to suggest that second time handicap is the time (1 from 31, 3 more placed, 27% PRB in the last two years). Just no fingerprints on this one at all for me.

More interesting is Force Of Honour, who showed a bit when upped from six to seven last time and who can show more now up another furlong. He's been green in a couple of his races and I actually quite like him, albeit he's the sort that could blow out completely. Put it this way: there are plenty here that have shown they're moderate, he has yet to unequivocally confirm as much! B.

Bobby Jones is another who might benefit from the longer trip and also gets B coverage in what is a messy race.

Leg 2: The Fanshawe team has been tearing it up recently and Philanthropist, a neck second at Yarmouth last time, looks A banker material. He's a cheap place lay to insure your bet if you're that way inclined; or you might choose a couple of C alternatives and hope to land A picks in the other five legs.

Leg 3: Seven runners. Yuk. Top of the market is shared between a horse in recent winning form and a handicap debutant from a big yard which has yet to get closer than nine lengths behind a race winner. Titainium is proven at the ten furlong trip and is versatile in terms of run style; up four pounds from a win last time, he might go in again.

But Sarmiento Power's debut effort behind Monkey Island was a strong piece of form and promised much more than his subsequent two performances. Now handicapped, off just 64 (he cost 200,000 guineas as a yearling), and up three furlongs in trip having been gelded since his last race, surely it's time to show what he's really made of.

I thought Solar Bentley had a hard enough race on heavy at Ffos Las 11 days ago and am opposing on that basis; he's up seven pounds for it in any case. Meanwhile, Archie and Hollie have a ridic 32.53% win rate from 83 starters when combining here in the past two years. That demands a second look at Perfectly Timed, who gets blinkers for the first time. That blinkers angle is less arousing, however, though a 50% PRB with such types over two years isn't bad either.

Although not making my placepot tickets, one I've had a tiny win bet on and might lob on C for the jackpot later is Parish Record. Trainer Donald Whillans is top of the PRB pops for three separate and largely unrelated categories, so this trainer switch from Jim Bolger (whose 2024 numbers are *not* good - see second image below) is really interesting.

Whillans' sole other trainer switch in the two year period was a 25/1 shot, which finished 3rd.

For the placepot I'm going with dual A's from the top of the market. Not exciting but they're both highly credible in different ways.

Leg 4: It is not normally the play to go from the front in big field 6f handicaps here, but Asimov may get a relatively soft time of it and, in any case, is from the Fanshawe barn. On the other side of the track, if Juicy is given a more patient ride, she might be in the mix; she's won or been close up in all four AW runs. Both on A.

Quintus Arrius has had 15 races and won two of them. On all-weather, he's had one race and he won it. Here. Over this trip. He led that day and is extremely well in on old form. Interesting. B.

There are three multiple 'Fast Finishers' in this field: Dark Kestrel, Bellagio Man and Faro De San Juan. The first named pair are both trained by Antony Brittain and could be fun plays at big prices but I'll let them beat me. Faro is another Dylan Cunha raider but his best form is at five furlongs so, even though David Egan is booked, I'll also reluctantly defer on him.

But one I can't completely overlook is Rough Diamond. Four of his five wins have been at 6f in big fields and he drops back to this trip from seven for his new trainer, Tristan Davidson. He's well weighted on old form and ran a good race last time before flattening out in the last furlong. A stiff six could be perfect. B.

Leg 5: This looks tricky. Barefoot Warrior won nicely at Thirsk last time but I'm not sure how strong the race was and he shoulders a seven pound penalty now: he's going on B. Stanage has had four goes for the Gosdens and is yet to win, though he has placed in £20k+ to the winner novice races the last twice. He's been gelded since last time and John & Thady are 11/33 after making the unkindest cut of all. I'll risk him as a sole A.

Also on B, I want the Crisford's Buon Viaggio, who was an eye-catching fourth at Chelmsford the other day. Simon & Ed are 24 from 101 with second time starters, 51 of them in the frame, in the past two years.

I'm lukewarm on a few of the others, notably Classic Encounter (switching from Charlie Appleby to George Boughey) and Lattaash, whose Southwell form is hard to peg and it can't be a positive that he was gelded in spite of winning. Both have shown competitive form so I might well be wrong.

Leg 6:  A full field as I write for the closing leg of the placepot and, actually, it's the first race I looked at in the sequence. That's because it's difficult and, if working through the six races chronologically, I might have found myself 'short stacked' (i.e. needing to go narrow from a bankroll perspective even though I know I want to be spread out from a play perspective). Assuming that made any sense, there's a negligible/debatable draw bias but a reasonable pace bias: in full field handicaps over 7f it's hard to win from the front. Other run styles have shared the honours pretty much and, when there's not a lot of obvious pace on - like this race on paper - I want a prominent/midfield runner rather than a hold up one.

 

The solid one, relatively at least, is Havanarama. Hugo Palmer legs up Callum Rodriguez and the former geegeez-sponsored rider is performing out of his skin this season. He's always been one of the best pace judges in the weighing room and this seven is a stern test of that particular skill. The jockey data for COURSE (Co) on Instant Expert, this image taken from the portrait mobile view (which shows the colour codes and the number of runs on which the colouring is based), reveals as much:

 

Indeed, of Callum's last 15 rides at Newcastle, he's been in the frame in 12 of them. If that hasn't given him the kiss of death, nothing will! Havanarama himself has been second on both Newcastle runs, smaller fields each time, and it might be that this bigger group allows him to finish to even greater effect. A.

Dylan Cunha sends Jackson Street all the way up from Newmarket and has booked Silvestre de Sousa to steer. This lad's AW form is a lot better than his turf efforts and he was doing all his best work late around Chelmsford when last seen. He can go close. A.

This is a tougher assignment for Flavour Maker than when dead heating at Kempton last time, but the straight track should also play to the finishing ability he displayed there. Still, I'm not quite so keen on him than the aforementioned pair. B.

Eminent Jewel is another who finishes off well, but her good recent form has been on turf. She might be able to translate it but I'm preferring to add the late runner Petra Celera to B. Although she might end up being too far back if they go steady in front, she's got some great fast finishes when the early tempo is rapid, as her Full Form (show sectionals, note the orange - fastest finisher in the race - "go faster stripes") attests.

 

*

No C tickets today, but a fair bit of B coverage. This is more of a, excuse me, sh*t or bust perm than I've shared recently but will hopefully be good fun at least.

It's £18.88 to 4p units, so £4.72 for pennies.

 

 

 

Good luck!

Matt

p.s. Chris will return for tomorrow's Tix Picks and will assume residency thereafter. I've enjoyed sharing a few thoughts on how I play as well as what I'm playing, and if you have any questions do drop them in the comments.

 

Play on Tix yourself here >>

 

 

 



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Tix Picks, Monday 9th September 2024

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OK, guys, my first crack at the new Tix Picks feature, so bear with me!

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

 

 

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pots are at Wolverhampton, so let's head there...

Tix Picks meeting / pool: Wolverhampton, placepot

Leg 1: A 5-runner, Class 5 nursery kicks the meeting off with Greek Gift and Claim To Glory being the only two runners with any discernible form. It's probably an early cop out, but I'll just take both of these for now.

Leg 2: Another 5-runner affair for 2yr olds makes for a tough start to the meeting, but the obvious pick for me is Target Man. He was only beaten by a neck on debut last time out and now drops in class. Likely to try and win the race from the front, which is a good tactic here at Wolverhampton. He's going to be a banker pick for me and probably 90-odd% of players!

Leg 3: A couple more runners in this one and older horses with more 'form' to work with. Most of the field are down in class and Bowman brings steady consistent top-three form to the table. Starshiba has made the frame twice from four runs here and has won over course and distance. Mr Squires won here in June and is the pace angle in the race...

 

 

... and if allowed an easy lead, he could well have a top-2 finish here and I'll take him and Bowman as my two against the field. I know Starshiba is popular in the market, but hasn't won a race for nearly nine months and has only made the frame once during his current run of nine defeats.

Leg 4: A better looking contest to work with here with 10 runners contesting this 1m½f, Class 4 handicap with three horses standing out on the Instant Expert place stats...

 

 

...all three tend to run in mid-division or further forward which is a bonus, as hold-up horses tend to fare worst over this track/trip. Stalls 4 to 7 score best on the PRB...

 

 

...so Photon becomes a pick here, despite still being a maiden after 11 races. In fairness he has been a runner-up in three of his last five on the A/W and a similar effort here will do for us. Elsewhere, King of Scotia is the predicted front-runner and he has won two of his last four and has three wins and a runner-up finish from his last seven outings. Has lost his last two on unsuitably quick ground but won over a mile at Lingfield on his last A/W outing. I'd hope he could make the frame here too.

Leg 5: An interesting seven-runner contest featuring five course and distance winners. Roaring Ralph, Chalk Mountain and Surprise Picture all won LTO in the last week, but the latter is up in class. Consistent placer (3322 in his last four) Ultramarine drops in class and these four are the ones in my mind here on form. Three of these four also standout on Instant Expert...

 

 

...and Ultramarine might be dangerously weighted. If we then look at the pace/draw heat map...

 

 

...it's Roaring Ralph and Surprise Picture from the original quartet that seem best positioned. Roaring Ralph now has to be a pick, but I think I'd also take Chalk Mountain, Surprise Picture and Ultramarine.

Leg 6: Our final race is another 7f affair, but we've ten 3 yr olds to choose from with Grecian God our only LTO winner. Diligent Henry was a runner-up, but only Amroon and Blacklion have won any of their last seven outings. Instant Expert also steers us towards Grecian God and Amroon...

 

 

...but the former might be poorly drawn out widest of the ten runners...

 

 

Both of these runners have previously won over course and distance and I'm keeping both onside here, although I do prefer Amroon to Grecian God.

So to summarise, I've identified the following as runners of interest...

Leg 1: horses 1 & 2

Leg 2: horse 2

Leg 3: horses 1 & 6

Leg 4: horses 1 & 8

Leg 5: horses 1, 2, 4 & 6

Leg 6: horses 3 & 5

I'll now hold my hands up and admit that I've not yet got my head around the ABC methodology, I'll need to pick Matt's brains, but if you're up to speed already or just want to do a simple 64-line perm from my picks...

 

...Play on Tix yourself here >>

 

Cheers,
Chris

I'm 'on the road' tomorrow, so Matt will cover you for Tuesday's picks and I'll be back with you on Wednesday morning. The plan moving forwards is that I'll have the piece ready to go 'live' by around 10am on the day of the races, but I'm going to be in Indonesia for the next four weeks, so things might move around a little until I get home.



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Tix Picks, 7th September 2024

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A losing day on Friday, stakes of £18 returning only £4.33 after a leg 2 bomb out left just one 'C' ticket (below) remaining. That's often the case, of course, and on we go.

 

Recap: What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here. You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

 

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a fat Scoop 6 pool for the ultra-brave and deep-pocketed, plus a £100,000 guaranteed placepot at Haydock.

 

 

 

Tix Picks meeting / pool: Kempton, placepot

Really, really competitive fare today and no obvious banker safe havens at the three big meetings. There's a £50,000 guaranteed pool at Kempton as well as the £100k guarantee at Haydock and I'll roll the dice on the Sunbury beaches.

Leg 1: A 2yo Group 3 to kick off, 6f and ten runners. Draw and pace can be big factors at Kempton, as this heat map implies. It could be tricky for Jouncy to get any sort of run from the outside box and I'm against him, though his form is solid if he does find a passage. More obvious is Adrian Keatley's Symbol Of Strength, 12lb clear on official ratings and surely odds on - rather than 7/4 - if trained by a more fashionable handler. That said, he's yet to run off turf but was an excellent length third in the G2 Gimcrack last time. He has a good draw and run style for this course and is a sole 'A'.

 

Leg 2: Seven runners - ugh - for this 1m4f Group 3 and Hamish, winner of the race in 2021, is another that is well clear on official ratings. He was second in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Ascot two back but then flopped a bit in a G2 at Newmarket last time. If he comes back close to his best - at age eight, that's not a given - he'll win here. A.

Kalpana is an improving three-year-old filly and a daughter of a very interesting sire in Study Of Man. She's been second and first in Listed contests, sandwiching a bronze medal in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot, and she gets a stone in age and sex allowances from the old boy Hamish. Her outside draw isn't ideal, even in a longer race and shorter field, but is mitigated by her tending to race handily in a field where not many do that (Cemhaan the only obvious other): she's on A as well in what is unimaginative play on my part.

Leg 3: The London Mile final, a 14-runner handicap at the - you guessed it - mile range. Very competitive field and again wide draws will have their work cut out as this image demonstrates:

 

The takeaway here is that if you have a double digit draw, it will be tough to get involved.

Kilt is favourite on his second handicap start and has no chinks in his armour bar experience. He is tractable in terms of run style, is drawn in stall 2, comes from the Haggas barn and the form of his two novice runs is working our brilliantly. Not so much the form of his handicap debut but we've since yet to see the only horse to finish ahead of him there and it was nearly three lengths-plus back to the rest. The first three favourites on this card could easily win.

But I want some B backup here. Valkyrian is a four-year-old that has already run 27 times - she's tough! Her last four AW spins have been 2122 and she keeps going up the handicap. It's only three days since her last run and, though I respect connections and she has a good draw/progressive profile, I'm a little wary off a very busy campaign and that recent run. She might defy both and she's reluctantly going on B, simply because four fancied runners are drawn 10, 11, 13 and 14. Vultar also goes on B, Clive Cox's runner having been 112 in three track spins and exiting trap six.

Whitcombe Rockstar is a third B despite a draw in 14. He's won over course and distance from stall 10 of 13 and stall 11 of 12, meaning he must have a turbo kick at the end of his races.

On C, I'll take those other wide lads, Talis Evolvere and Longlai as well as unnamed favourite.

Leg 4: Six go to post in a nursery handicap and coincidence players, perhaps especially Scottish ones, might enjoy the Kilt/Tilted Kilt double in consecutive races. William Knight's handicap debutant has a lot in his corner, including the masterful Neil Callan on top.

I'm not mad about Fearless Freddy's form - I might be wrong - and am swerving him; instead, I like the progressive Chesneys Charm: he needed every yard of the seven furlongs to get up on the line at Wolves last time and this extra eighth should be ideal. I also respect George Scott's handicap debut record and so Toy Soldier is on B tickets. I'll timidly lob the other trio on C.

Leg 5: A dozen runners for the London Sprint Series Final over 6f. Draw and run style are again huge considerations as you can see below:

An inside berth and/or a front-running style are important. Wide and waited with is tough, really tough. The pace horses Habooba and Radio Goo Goo both get automatic C slots at least, and I'm upgrading Habooba to B courtesy of his 9 from 10 place record in 6f all-weather races.

Favourite Heathcliff is more of a 7f horse (his distance win last time was on the more searching straight six at Newcastle) and could be done for speed in this contest; I prefer the chances of top weight Ferrous whose sand level is better than his grass one. If he can get a nice position from his inside stall he's a runner. A. Intervention was a close up sixth in this race last year having been messed about with at the start, and that's an effort that can be upgraded a touch. He's very consistent in AW sprints and has a good draw for an in-form team. B. Al Barez is another well drawn horse but he'll need the splits given his hold up style; in any case, he has a great gear change and completes the B group.

Leg 6: A trappy sextet closes with a 1m4f older horse handicap in which Enrico Caruso looks a worthy jolly for the Gosdens. The form of his handicap debut win last time has worked out well, with the second winning both times since. It was more than six further lengths back to the third, and the fouth has won a Newmarket handicap since. This longer trip should be fine, though Shoemark doesn't want to leave Enrico with too much ground to make up.

Assail was given that mission impossible closing assignment here two back, just missing the frame, and then got it done at Ascot last time over this trip. He is likely to be on the premises and is a second A play.

Wonder Legend is hard to quantify and, on balance, I'll sidestep him with two solid A's already. Harder to ignore is Night Breeze, a big improver this season and one that has been getting plenty of the Racing League prize money. He's been busy but may not be finished yet. B. Haku has some good runs at the track, usually just outside the places and that makes him a C play only along with unnamed favourite. I'll throw the filly Juana Ines on C, too: her trainer does very well on HC2 and she ran a cracker in an Ascot novice last backend and gets the tongue tie as well as the hood for the first time. Interesting.

 

*

A few chances taken, especially the banker jolly in the first. You could place lay it to insure your position if that's your thing.

 

 

 

5p units makes for a £17.60 spread this afternoon. Obviously, lots of risk, especially early, but that's the nature of the game. Good luck!

Matt

p.s. Sundays are a great day for placepots - and often for jackpots too - but it's a day off for Tix Picks. Back on Monday...

 

Play on Tix yourself here >>

 

 

 



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Tix Picks, 6th September 2024

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I was right to forecast soft ground for Salisbury yesterday. In fact, not quite right enough, because the fixture was abandoned an hour and a half before racing was scheduled to go ahead. What a shame for their big day of the year. To Friday, but first...

 

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here. You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

 

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows*

 

*Did you know we had a dark mode? It's the button top right that looks like a sun. And the 'eye' icon next to it reveals or hides your account balance when logged in.

 

Tix Picks meeting / pool: Ascot, placepot

It's a £50,000 guaranteed pool at Ascot today and the going is currently soft. Ascot has a great page to check going here. There is the promise of more rain on its way so I'm working on the basis of heavy which, like yesterday, could be flawed logic but offers a potential edge. Let's hope, unlike yesterday, the meeting actually goes ahead.

Leg 1: A mile on the straight track for female amateurs is a test of judgement at the best of times. On rain softened ground there could be a furlong between first and last. Experienced rider and a hold up ride on a horse handling the conditions is optimal, and that means Shaladar. His form on soft in mile handicaps is 22722, he's a hold up type and Becky Smith, one of the most competent and experienced jockeys in the race, steers. The other of interest is last year's late, late show winner, Crystal Casque, who is five pounds lower this time around and acts well on soft. Two A's and we'll hope to survive the opener. I've backed Shaladar which is another impost that one will have to overcome!

Law Supreme will go on B.

Leg 2: Godolphin has won this decent maiden with the favourite in three of the last four years, and Fifth Column - trained by the Gosdens for Team Blue - is vying for market leadership. But current jolly and the one to be with, I think, is Isambard Brunel, representing Ballydoyle and the lads. The Aidan and Ryan TJ combo is 7/12 in the past fortnight and, though the going is a niggle for a son of Justify, he's my A single. I'll add a B in the form of Fifth Column, and a couple of C's - Seaplane and Calla Lagoon.

Leg 3: Non-runners have already reduced this race to a field of seven, rarely the friend of placepotters, and I'm banking on the odds-on jolly Ballet Slippers to go one better than last time. Dubawi offspring have a very good record on soft and I hope that's not the kiss of death here. She's the first foal out of the brilliant seven-time Group 1-winning mare Magical, and is a super-interesting cross with a Darley stallion for the Coolmore squad. They need her to get the win. I will take her as my sole pick in the race and lay her cheaply for a place to insure half of my placepot stake.

Leg 4: Hamad al Jehani has made a cracking start to his career in UK, hitting the frame at 38% and winning at 17%. He saddles favourite Diego Ventura, a winner on debut last time before switching to owners Wathnan Racing. Diego was trained by Gavin Cromwell and sent off 33/1 that day, dead heating with subsequent follow up winner and Listed second Magnum Force. That form has plenty of substance and, despite the six pound penalty, he ought to nearly win again, the turf having been yielding that first day.

Fort Augustus had a very troubled start on his debut at Newmarket last time behind another Wathnan runner, Defence Minister. That one scored again yesterday and this fellow looks the main danger (of those with form). He's a B pick, and I'm shoving three on C, all of them mildly interesting today and more than that for the future: Kosometsuke, Newlyn School and Gesundheit (bless you!).

Leg 5: Three absentees here have the field down to seven again, and I'm spreading out a bit further this time in a 0-90 classified stakes. Waleefy has been in great form on much faster ground but has never encountered anything with the word soft or heavy in it. Still, as a son of Night Of Thunder, whose progeny tend to handle deeper ground, he might be fine. His form gets him the A gig, but definitely not a solo spot.

Contrast that with James Tate's runner, United Approach, whose only two wins have been on soft and good to soft turf. He's got a bit to find on bare form but is expected to handle conditions better than some. And I'm adding a third string to my A bow with Look Back Smiling. This is a race where I feel there's a chance of getting a result, and Gemma Tutty's lad is a mudlark with strong handicap form.

I'm against Thunder Blue, who may struggle on the ground, and prefer Dark Thirty to bounce back somewhat. Lord Bertie won a soft ground novice by TWELVE lengths last season; a stable switch has seen three lacklustre spins on the all-weather so far but he, too, could bounce back on the sodden surface. Both on C, along with unnamed favourite.

Leg 6: Theoryofeverything is the place to start in this final leg, a mile handicap. David O'Meara trains and this one has loads of decent soft ground form. Favourite Awaal was second in the Lincoln on heavy last year but has run only once this season, 55 days ago; he looks one to be cautious with just now, though it won't surprise if he comes right back - I'll lob him on B. O'Meara also saddles Bennetot, and Oisin rides, so he'll be popular; but he's 0-from-3 on deep ground, thumped each time.

When I'm discounting most of the horses at the top of the market I get a bit nervous, and that appears to be what's happening here. I could make a small case for Classic, and slightly more of one for standing dish Tempus; but the one I quite like is Hafeet Alain. He's a mudlark and a four-time handicap winner at a mile including twice in this grade. The one niggle is his run style: forward goers don't normally prosper on this piste. He's going on B all the same. So, too, is Navagio, another with plenty of soggy sod form and he's five pounds lower than when third in this year's Lincoln (on soft).

*

For 4p stakes, then, and using the multipliers shown below, that's an £18 play across 14 tickets. You could make the same bet to pennies for £4.50, though I always recommend changing at least a few things up.

 

 

 

It could be an early bath in either of leg 1 or 3 today - or indeed leg 2, and a slightly later dip in the tub via legs 4, 5 or 6! - but risk is the friend of placepot players. If we get it wrong today, we can go again tomorrow. What we cannot do is bankroll self-harm by putting five picks in every leg.

 

Play on Tix yourself here >>

 

 

 

Matt



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Tix Picks, 5th September 2024

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We're spending this week trying to formulate the optimal way to present Tix Picks, and what has immediately become apparent is the misleading nature of the early overnight markets. The upshot of that may be that we need to either publish much later the evening before or, better from an accuracy perspective/worse from an accessibility perspective, in the morning on day of race.

While no decision on that has yet been made, I'm leaning towards morning simply because the market signals are a key component in multi-race betting.

In spite of the market cluelessness, an £18.10 stake in our first attempt returned £121.38 from the two winning tickets below, which is a pretty good start...

 

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

 

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows:

Tix Picks meeting / pool: Salisbury, placepot

It looks trickier to me than the markets imply at Salisbury where they host their big meeting of the season, featuring the Dick Poole (Group 3) and some high class-looking fillies races elsewhere on the card. And there's a significant amount of uncertainty about the going, which could lead to both non-runners and different horses being favoured. Exactly what I love to swing at on the placepot!

Currently, the going is reported as good to firm, good in places; but it's raining and there's a lot of rain expected later this morning. As a consequence, I'm going to play the bet based on good to soft/soft (they watered the track earlier in the week) and with field size changes (and therefore fewer placepot places) a potential further imbuggerance. Of course, if I'm wrong, it could be a very early bath. And of course of course, you're better off judging the ground/field sizes/weather closer to the first race off time if you can.

OK, long intro in place, let's get to it.

Leg 1: Beau Jardine is the proven soft ground horse and he's getting backed. Most of his best form is at shorter, however, which is a niggle. Edvard Grieg shaped as though a testing mile was ideal last time but he has only satisfactory form on deeper turf from Ireland; still, he also goes on A. Darysina Gold is consistent and the sort of horse I hate to see in the frame, but completes a triple A assault in the opener. I'm going to throw Finn Russell, Gavi Di Gavi and Outrace on a C ticket, too.

Leg 2: This mile novice for juveniles could take some getting, especially as plenty have never run before. Dissident is a gorgeously-bred half to G1 filly Bluestocking and clear favourite. Enrolled must improve on a last of four on debut; Fanshawe runners have a 60% PRB on second start and the yard could hardly be in better form. I'm not sure about the ground for a son of American Pharoah, however, and the fact he's already been gelded having cost 270,000 guineas is not a positive.

Taking an unraced horse in a contest like this on ground like this is a risk; but I'm banking on him on A. I'll throw a few massive odds C guesses in case, siding with 3, 7, 8, 9, 10. Very much more in hope than expectation.

Leg 3: Nine runners currently in this one, so a couple of withdrawals would take us to only two places. Speculative, I know, but that is very much the shape of today's play. It wouldn't be a surprise if Kingsclere proves the best of these in time: she's a full sister to 2000 Guineas winner Kameko and has been named after Andrew Balding's yard, the sort of thing usually reserved for good'uns. But Kitten's Joy progeny are not tyically great on soft and Balding's first time out record (30%) is a lot lower than his second and third time out record.

I'm swerving her, then, though she's sure to be one to follow; in her place I'll side with Gulya and Silver Ghost. The former is a debutante for Roger Varian (46% placed first time out) by a stallion whose offspring tend to cope with mud; the latter is the most experienced in the field, has been second the last twice and is bred to handle softer.

Leg 4: One NR in the Dick Poole, a 6f fillies' G3, already; and potential for more to follow. Two more out would take us to seven runners. Kingman filly, Tabiti, was ultra-impressive on her debut when making all at Newmarket. But that was good to firm and I'm playing that this will be a lot wetter. Still, Kingman's do fine in the rain so she's not a chuck out; she's just not a banker, either.

I'll add a second A string to my bow in the shape of the obvious one, Jewelry. Unbeaten in one, she danced clear of a biggish field at Newbury (good) last time and, a daughter of Wootton Bassett, ought not to mind the ground.

I'm taking B's here, too, with the experienced and progressive Magic Mild and the unexposed, potentially over-priced Troia. I'm lobbing 1, 3, 4, fav on C as well!

Leg 5: A cracking 6f fillies' handicap and top weight Pinafore can bounce back. She ran better than her finishing position at York last time, weakening in the final furlong of seven there; the step back in trip on ground she is expected to handle looks right. Under The Twilight is three from three at Salisbury, including on soft turf twice. She's back to her last winning mark and is another to have performed better than her finishing position the last twice. Dance And Romance looks the right favourite: she's unexposed and has won on good to soft. She has to be in calculations. Three A's.

Leg 6: The last leg is a really trappy mile handicap for three-year-olds and up. Although he's rising up the weights, Phoenix Passion has five wins from seven mile handicap starts, and is four from four in mile turf handicaps. He's won on good to soft and heavy (and good and good to firm!) and he usually goes forward. Saffie Osborne is riding as well as just about anyone this season so no frets there. This is a step up in class, however.

Faro Di Notte is another with form on softer and is unexposed, this being only his second handicap spin: he was second on 'cap bow last time over a mile at Goodwood. He's on A as well.

Two B's - Monkey Island and Berkshire Nugget; and C's in the shape of Gloucestershire, Aafoor and Beylerbeyi because this race is tough!

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For minimum penny stakes, then, that's a £15.48 play across eight tickets.

 

 

There's a very good chance that this octet either fails to collect or returns less than was invested; but I am looking for some carnage and hoping to nick a sliver of it!

 

Play on Tix yourself here >>

 

Matt



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Tix Picks: Prototype

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Tomorrow's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows:

 

Tix Picks meeting / pool: Bath, placepot

With short fields everywhere except Kilbeggan, today I'm going to have a look at the Bath placepot. It's not a perfect shape, with a four-runner opener (win only) and two eight-runner fields to close the sequence, we have just one place to get through leg 1 and non-runners could affect the number of places available in legs 5 and 6. Ideally you'll place your bets late to account for this, but in any case it's something to be aware of.

The going is good to soft currently, with the chance of a light shower. There is no watering at Bath so it should ride genuinely as per the going description.

I'll be taking a banker in leg 3 and will build around that.

Leg 1: Four runners, three-year-olds only handicap over the minimum. Win only. The current betting has Smooth Silesie and Wrestling Revenue as vying for favouritism, but there are grounds for believing that both the exposed Soldiers Design and the unexposed Port Hedland can get competitive. I'm minded to go four deep on A and hope for one of the outsiders, but I'm going to reluctantly put Port Hedland on C, along with unnamed favourite.

Leg 2: Miss Gitana was out of the placepot places for the first time in six races last time, and even then only just. Prior to that she was a course, distance and going winner in slightly lower grade and is the most likely leader in the field for all that there are other possible forward goers. She's 422113 since taking on handicaps, a typical Sir Mark Prescott project, and is an obvious A player.

Percy Jones was a winner two back on the all-weather and he did too much early in a better race over shorter last time. That's a chuck out and, now returned to optimal distance and five pounds below his last winning mark he could go well. B. I'm not sold on A Gift Of Love for all that the longer trip could see her go close, or Maritime Lady who may be compromised if she tries to lock handbags with Miss Gitana early; but I do want another option on B. So I'll take For Pleasure, who is on a very feasible weight and has won three of his last six across all codes.

Leg 3: A banker as mentioned - you've got to take chances somewhere - and I'm taking a risk with Distant Rumble. He's drawn wide but that's not necessarily a problem over the 5 1/2f trip at Bath. This looks a pretty weak contest so fingers crossed he can at least hit the board.

Leg 4: The extended five furlongs again, this time in a 10-runner handicap. There's a little bit of speed on paper - via Fishermans Cottage and Johnny Johnson - and I want finishers to chase them down. Apache Star loves it here, especially when there's some give in the turf, and he's weighted to go close at a decent price. But Mick Appleby's Snow Berry was doing all his good work late on over five last time and the longer trip looks spot on. He's A material, as is Media Guest whose track record is very solid.

Vaunted rattled home over course and distance three back but she's very tricky at the start, as evidenced by an unseated rider from the stalls last time.

Leg 5: The Mick Appleby trainer change angle has been one of the most bankable in racing over the years, and he bids to work his magic with Honour Your Dreams here. Only 2 from 35 for Adrian Keatley, he did make the frame 11 times. Both wins were on turf and his mark has dropped to an attractive level if Mick can eke out some of the old animal here. He'll likely be chasing So Smart early - I'm betting they all will - and Grace Harris's speedster has generally been on the premises; but he's a weak finisher and might again get passed late on.

Glamorous Express is one of those closers but might just need more speed to aim at. He looks short enough in the betting and I'm taking him on. Obviously, he'll win now! Symbol Of Hope is a seven-time winner at Bath, his form in the last years here reading 1133229657041641. He's on B. So, too, is Sovereign Slipper, four from 17 lifetime and whose sole turf win came over five furlongs on similar ground at Chepstow the time before last.

Delagate This Lord is ten years old now and probably won't win, but he's an eight-time Bath scorer so hats off for that.

Leg 6: A 1m4f handicap to close out the placepot and the 'dead eight' again, meaning a non-runner will reduce us to only two places... Divine Presence represent Team Gosden, and they're two winners and two further places from five Bath starters in the past year. She's straight on A. So, too, is Ciara Pearl, the Kublers' filly a consistent sort that handles any ground.

The Alan King handicap debutant One Glance has managed to hit the frame the last twice in spite of being sent off at 40/1 and 100/1! King's record with HC1 is not great, however, and she's passed over tentatively. Bas Bleu has had plenty of goes compared with some of these and has nearly won on four of her eight attempts. But you can't put them all in, so I'll have to hope she again fails to pass the lollipop in front.

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That makes the Tix picks look thus. A quick explainer seeing as you may be new to all this. The first column, green, are my 'A' picks. I must have at least one 'A' in each race and these are my strongest fancies in each race. The yellow column in the middle is for 'B' picks, my warmish / value alternatives. And the tan right hand column is for 'C' picks - horses I can't let beat me but that I don't especially fancy; or huge prices that I secretly admire.

 

Once I've added my picks on the RACES tab (that's where the image above comes from), I move on to the TICKETS tab to enter my stake and choose my multipliers. I tend to set things up as per the image below, and I'll explain why underneath that snapshot:

 

 

Ticket 1 consists solely of my 'A' picks - my main fancies - and, as such, I've given it a 4x multiplier. That means the individual stake (£0.05, see the box underneath 'place ticket' in the ticket 1 area top left) is times'd by four, i.e. 20p units. The selections are therefore AAAAAA

Tickets 2 to 4 consist of five of my 'A' race picks and the 'B' picks in one each of the three races in which I've selected horses on 'B' (legs 2, 4, and 5 - see first image). The selections here are ABAAAA (B on leg 2), AAABAA (B on leg 4), and AAAABA (B on leg 5). These have a 3x multiplier today (3 x 5p = 15p lines), though sometimes I only make a 2x multiplier for these.

Tickets 5 to 7 consist of four of my 'A' race picks and 'B' picks two of the three races in which I've selected horses on 'B'. So ABABAA, ABAABA, and AAABBA. These have a 2x multiplier today (2 x 5p = 10p lines), though sometimes I only make a 1x multiplier for these.

Finally, ticket 8 has five 'A' race picks a 'C' race pick. This is CAAAAA (my only 'C' picks being in leg 1). These always have a 1x multiplier for me, so 5p lines.

IMPORTANT POINT

It is important to note that not all combinations are covered. We get a lot of coverage across the chosen horses for a much reduced stake compared to putting all the picks in a 'caveman' perm (e.g. in this example, we'd have 5 picks in leg 1, 3 in leg 2, 1 in leg 3, 3 in leg 4, 3 in leg 5 and 2 in leg 6 - so 5*3*1*3*3*2 = 270 bets).

In order to win on ABCX we need to get either at least one correct from all six 'A' race picks; or at least one correct on five 'A' race picks plus one 'B' and/or 'C' race pick in the other leg; or four correct 'A' races with correct 'B' picks in the other two races.

That's a very verbose way of saying, in this example, we have eight separate placepot tickets which are shown in the image above.

This will all make sense in a day or two, but do ask questions in the comments if anything is unclear - I may have over-explained things, or I may have under-explained them!

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Placing those bets at a cost of £18.10 (for 1p's it's £3.62) and moving to the BETS tab, I can see my tickets listed there (the P/L has some other bets in it, so ignore that for now) :

 

What I do is export the csv, and then track the bets during the day in that spreadsheet. I'll shown how I do this in a separate video. The Bath tickets look like this:

Leg 7 calculates the value of winning units for each row as I update the cells in Legs 1-6 columns once the results are known.

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There's a lot of information in this post, much of it redundant if you already understand the ABCX method. One other very important point is that, even if you only want to have a single placepot ticket, that is, all 'A' picks, you can do that and still get 5% bonus on your winnings through Tix - so it's better value regardless of how you play.

And a reminder: the purpose of this series is not so much to tip a bunch of winners, or to have everyone play the same picks on the placepot/quadpot/jackpot; but, rather, to demonstrate how the Tix tool works and why it's a far smarter - and better value - play than placing bets directly into the placepot pool at tote or with your bookmaker.

- Matt



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