Tix Picks, 6th September 2024
I was right to forecast soft ground for Salisbury yesterday. In fact, not quite right enough, because the fixture was abandoned an hour and a half before racing was scheduled to go ahead. What a shame for their big day of the year. To Friday, but first...
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Today's pools
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Tix Picks meeting / pool: Ascot, placepot
It's a £50,000 guaranteed pool at Ascot today and the going is currently soft. Ascot has a great page to check going here. There is the promise of more rain on its way so I'm working on the basis of heavy which, like yesterday, could be flawed logic but offers a potential edge. Let's hope, unlike yesterday, the meeting actually goes ahead.
Leg 1: A mile on the straight track for female amateurs is a test of judgement at the best of times. On rain softened ground there could be a furlong between first and last. Experienced rider and a hold up ride on a horse handling the conditions is optimal, and that means Shaladar. His form on soft in mile handicaps is 22722, he's a hold up type and Becky Smith, one of the most competent and experienced jockeys in the race, steers. The other of interest is last year's late, late show winner, Crystal Casque, who is five pounds lower this time around and acts well on soft. Two A's and we'll hope to survive the opener. I've backed Shaladar which is another impost that one will have to overcome!
Law Supreme will go on B.
Leg 2: Godolphin has won this decent maiden with the favourite in three of the last four years, and Fifth Column - trained by the Gosdens for Team Blue - is vying for market leadership. But current jolly and the one to be with, I think, is Isambard Brunel, representing Ballydoyle and the lads. The Aidan and Ryan TJ combo is 7/12 in the past fortnight and, though the going is a niggle for a son of Justify, he's my A single. I'll add a B in the form of Fifth Column, and a couple of C's - Seaplane and Calla Lagoon.
Leg 3: Non-runners have already reduced this race to a field of seven, rarely the friend of placepotters, and I'm banking on the odds-on jolly Ballet Slippers to go one better than last time. Dubawi offspring have a very good record on soft and I hope that's not the kiss of death here. She's the first foal out of the brilliant seven-time Group 1-winning mare Magical, and is a super-interesting cross with a Darley stallion for the Coolmore squad. They need her to get the win. I will take her as my sole pick in the race and lay her cheaply for a place to insure half of my placepot stake.
Leg 4: Hamad al Jehani has made a cracking start to his career in UK, hitting the frame at 38% and winning at 17%. He saddles favourite Diego Ventura, a winner on debut last time before switching to owners Wathnan Racing. Diego was trained by Gavin Cromwell and sent off 33/1 that day, dead heating with subsequent follow up winner and Listed second Magnum Force. That form has plenty of substance and, despite the six pound penalty, he ought to nearly win again, the turf having been yielding that first day.
Fort Augustus had a very troubled start on his debut at Newmarket last time behind another Wathnan runner, Defence Minister. That one scored again yesterday and this fellow looks the main danger (of those with form). He's a B pick, and I'm shoving three on C, all of them mildly interesting today and more than that for the future: Kosometsuke, Newlyn School and Gesundheit (bless you!).
Leg 5: Three absentees here have the field down to seven again, and I'm spreading out a bit further this time in a 0-90 classified stakes. Waleefy has been in great form on much faster ground but has never encountered anything with the word soft or heavy in it. Still, as a son of Night Of Thunder, whose progeny tend to handle deeper ground, he might be fine. His form gets him the A gig, but definitely not a solo spot.
Contrast that with James Tate's runner, United Approach, whose only two wins have been on soft and good to soft turf. He's got a bit to find on bare form but is expected to handle conditions better than some. And I'm adding a third string to my A bow with Look Back Smiling. This is a race where I feel there's a chance of getting a result, and Gemma Tutty's lad is a mudlark with strong handicap form.
I'm against Thunder Blue, who may struggle on the ground, and prefer Dark Thirty to bounce back somewhat. Lord Bertie won a soft ground novice by TWELVE lengths last season; a stable switch has seen three lacklustre spins on the all-weather so far but he, too, could bounce back on the sodden surface. Both on C, along with unnamed favourite.
Leg 6: Theoryofeverything is the place to start in this final leg, a mile handicap. David O'Meara trains and this one has loads of decent soft ground form. Favourite Awaal was second in the Lincoln on heavy last year but has run only once this season, 55 days ago; he looks one to be cautious with just now, though it won't surprise if he comes right back - I'll lob him on B. O'Meara also saddles Bennetot, and Oisin rides, so he'll be popular; but he's 0-from-3 on deep ground, thumped each time.
When I'm discounting most of the horses at the top of the market I get a bit nervous, and that appears to be what's happening here. I could make a small case for Classic, and slightly more of one for standing dish Tempus; but the one I quite like is Hafeet Alain. He's a mudlark and a four-time handicap winner at a mile including twice in this grade. The one niggle is his run style: forward goers don't normally prosper on this piste. He's going on B all the same. So, too, is Navagio, another with plenty of soggy sod form and he's five pounds lower than when third in this year's Lincoln (on soft).
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For 4p stakes, then, and using the multipliers shown below, that's an £18 play across 14 tickets. You could make the same bet to pennies for £4.50, though I always recommend changing at least a few things up.
It could be an early bath in either of leg 1 or 3 today - or indeed leg 2, and a slightly later dip in the tub via legs 4, 5 or 6! - but risk is the friend of placepot players. If we get it wrong today, we can go again tomorrow. What we cannot do is bankroll self-harm by putting five picks in every leg.
Matt