Tix Picks, Wednesday 27/11/24

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Wednesday's racing comes from Dundalk, Hereford, Market Rasen and Wetherby.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Market Rasen...

And we'll follow the money and head to Lincolnshire and Market Rasen's good to soft/soft ground for six races starting with...

Race 1 @ 12.05...Top-weight Catchim finished 42P423 in PTP races before winning by 2¼ lengths on his debut under Rules at Southwell over a trip of 2m4½f where he jumped pretty well after a clumsy effort at the first. That run will stand him in good stead, of course, but he's carrying a 7lb penalty for that win and has been off the track for 169 days.

I think he's probably still good enough to make the frame, but this race is surely all about Tripoli Flyer, who won a Class 2 bumper at Lingfield in January and was a one-length runner-up to stable mate Horaces Pearl in a Grade 2 bumper at the Aintree Festival with subsequent Grade 2 hurdle winner Valgrand three lengths further back. Tripoli Flyer's hurdling debut saw him finish as a runner-up again at Chepstow three weeks ago after seven months off track. He should come on for the run and it's hard to imagine him not winning this.

Best of the rest are probably the expensive (140,000 Euro) Queens Wish, a 6 lengths winner on her sole PTP run and Bennetshill, who was a well beaten second of four at Southwell twelve days ago, but it's just (6) Tripoli Flyer & (1) Catchim for me here.

Race 2 @ 12.40...This race has somewhat fallen apart overnight with half of the six-runner field being withdrawn. Of the three that do run, Brave Jen brings the best recent form to the table, having finished 231 in her last three, getting off the mark at the fourteenth (!) time of asking at Sedgefield three weeks ago.

The fact that she was 0/13 at the start of the month says how poor this race is. Traveling Soldier was beaten by 53 and 57 lengths in his last two outings and Chief Sunday went down by 26 lengths at Aintree a month ago.

I'm not being caught out in a 3-runner race, though, so all three go on my ticket builder with Brave Jen just about the least worst of the three and Chief Sunday the biggest threat on handicap debut down two classes and three furlongs.

Race 3 @ 1.15...Camino Rocio is 2 from 2 since moving to Jim and Suzi Best's yard and being fitted with a visor and although he's up 6lbs for his win at Huntingdon a fortnight ago, he's surely the one to beat here. Elsewhere Knocknagappagh returns from seven months off hoping to recapture the form that saw her finish as a runner-up three times inside five starts last winter, whilst Sadlers Bay comes back from a 10-month break hoping to pick up where he left with finishes of 34223 in his last five outings.

Stuti makes a chase debut after a win and four places from nine starts in bumper/hurdles races, having made the frame in three of her last four and her yard is 2 from 2 in Market Rasen chases this year. Dunworley returns from a near seven month absence, but the penny seemed to be finally dropping for him last time out when third home at Huntingdon, whilst Goguenard returns from a similar lay-off to make his chase debut. He returned to action last January after a year off the track and finished 1121 in his first four starts after the break, so if adapting tot he bigger obstacles, the time off might not as much of an issue.

That said, this shouldn't be too hard to win and I expect (6) Camino Rocio to complete a one-month hat-trick for the Bests. (3) Sadlers Bay is probably my second choice with (4) Stuti the back-up plan.

Race 4 @ 1.50...I think I'd have been on Skyjack Hijack here to complete a sixth win on the bounce, but both he and in-form West To The Bridge were withdrawn this morning forcing me into a rethink, which has led me initially to (2) Harbour Lake who has 5 wins and 3 places from 14 over hurdles, won by 2.5 lengths after a six month break at Aintree 18 days ago and was a winner here back in October 2022 on his only previous visit. His jockey is 5 from 15 here over the last year and has made the frame in 11 of 23 rides over the last fortnight, whilst the yard's 26 runners in that fortnight have a 50% place strike rate.

Elsewhere, Supreme Gift probably needed the run after 192 days off when 7th of 12 at Cheltenham a month ago, but he had ended his last campaign with results reading 213 all in a visor that he wears again today. What A Johnny is steady if unspectacular and has only failed to finish ion the first three home once in his six efforts over hurdles so far, winning at both Stratford on debut a year ago and at Perth in April. He also looked like needing the run last time out when finishing weakly at Carlisle.

Bottom weight Giovanni Change is interesting, this 9yo has been around the block a few times and on a positive note has 4 wins and 2 places from 11 hurdles races over 2m5f to 3m here at Market Rasen and is the only course and distance winner in the pack. He's also 9lbs lower than his last winning mark and has a 5lb claimer on board too, but he comes here after finishing last of 12 over 2m1f at Carlisle, 20 lengths behind the winner and was only 8th of 9 here over course and distance last time out, beaten by some 68 lengths.

If we get last season's Giovanni Change, then 20/1 price ticket looks massive, but I suspect we'll get this August's runner instead, so I'll take (2) Harbour Lake to beat (8) What A Johnny here with (3) Supreme Gift as the alternate, but don't be afraid of putting Giovanni Change on your tickets, you never know!

Race 5 @ 2.25...Fantastic Lady is joint best-off at the weights and won this race two years ago. She hasn't raced for seven months just as she hadn't when winning here back in 2022 and did land a Grade 2 contest at Sandown last time out. Apple Away was second and then third in Grade 2 chases at the start of the year and landed a Listed event at Perth two starts ago back in April. He probably needed the run after six months off when 4th of 7 at Kelso a month ago and we should remember that he's a Grade 1 hurdle winner.

Marsh Wren is 12113 over fences so far and was a solid third of nine in a Grade 2 at this year's Cheltenham Festival having won a 2m6f Thurles Listed contest three weeks earlier. That 2m6f is the longest she has raced, so she's unproven/untested at 3m+. La Renommee is two from four in handicap chases this year and was a runner-up in back to back Listed chases in December/January last season. She'd be a surprise winner here, I think, but she should be involved in the shake-up.

Sire Nomine's career consists of six Hunter Chase runs, where she has finished 312111, culminating in her landing the Festival Challenge Cup at this year's Cheltenham Festival. She hasn't raced since then and this is a step up in quality, so whilst there's no doubting her ability, she might be one for next time out.

Tough call here, but my 1-2 would be (1) Fantastic Lady & (3) Marsh Wren

Race 6 @ 3.00...Anytrixwilldo has only tackled fences twice so far and looked like he was getting the hang of it last time out when beaten by not much more than teo lengths at Hereford a fortnight ago and a similar run puts him in contention for at least a place here off the same mark. Percy Veering has had a third wind op, but ran really well immediately after each of his previous two including over this course and distance in March 2023. More recently he was a faller at Wincanton in January and well beaten by 36 lengths in a four-runner event at Leicester in March, so massive improvement is needed here.

Sir Rock is two from four over fences, having won back to back races at Plumpton and Fontwell last December/January. A return to Plumpton in March saw him finish second of five, beaten by a neck before a seven month break. Sadly he hasn't been the same this season, going down by 34 lengths over hurdles back at Fontwell before being pulled up 3 out having tailed off in a 2m4f chase there earlier this month. Pats Dream got off the mark at the eighth attempt at Ayr earlier this month, winning a 12-runner handicap by a neck on what was his yard debut for new handlers. He is up 7lbs for that win, which is a little harsh, but he's the 'in-form' runner in a poor looking contest.

My shortlist is completed by (6) Coolmoyne whose form over 3m+ in 2024 reads 24132 and was a creditable second of six at Sedgefield most recently despite coming off a 141-day absence. He runs off the same mark here and whilst more of a place prospect than a winner, should go well and I'll take him as my next best to (5) Pats Dream with (2) Anytrixwilldo the backup option.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (6) Tripoli Flyer & (1) Catchim

Leg 2: (1) Chief Sunday, (3) Brave Jen & (5) Traveling Soldier

Leg 3: (6) Camino Rocio, (3) Sadlers Bay & (4) Stuti

Leg 4: (2) Harbour Lake, (8) What A Johnny & (3) Supreme Gift

Leg 5:  (1) Fantastic Lady & (3) Marsh Wren

Leg 6: (5) Pats Dream, (6) Coolmoyne & (2) Anytrixwilldo

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Tuesday 26/11/24

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Tuesday's racing comes from Sedgefield, Southwell and Tramore. If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Sedgefield...

...and as I want to avoid the maiden bumper in the last at Sedgefield, I'm going to tackle the first six races on the Southwell card, where the going is said to be good to soft.

Leg 1 @ 12.35...Smurfette has a win and two places from her last three starts and also looked like she'd more running left in her when third over 2m6f last time out. Northern Reel's yard, jockey and trainer/jockey combo have all made the frame in more than half of their races over the last fortnight...

...and the horse herself was a ready 13 lengths winner at Leicester last week. One other to consider would be Eightytwo Team who has a win and a place from two efforts over course and distance and has been in consistently decent nick for some time.

That said, I don't think she's at the level of the other two, so I'll stick with (2) Smurfette and (4) Northern Reel here.

Leg 2 @ 1.05...Great Samourai was disappointing last time out, but had finished 242221 in his previous six starts, including a pair of silvers here at Southwell and a win at Huntingdon and could well be involved again up in trip. Imperial Bede drops in class after finishing third at Wetherby at the start of the month and is now 6lbs lower than when he won by 13 lengths over C&D back in February.

Duo D'Enfer is getting on a bit now at 11 and although his last three efforts haven't been great, he did finish third this time last year at the start of a run of results reading 3131, whereas Jasmin De Grugy is the clear form horse in this pack, having won each of his last three starts over hurdles. he's had six months rest ahead of his chasing debut and if transferring his hurdles form to the larger obstacles would be the one to beat here.

Onewayortother has finished third in both starts over fences so far over a trip of 2m½f that has seemed too sharp for him, so he could improve for the extra half mile or so here, whilst You Say Nothing is dangerously weighted off a mark of 96, some 12lbs lower than his last winning mark from may 2023, but that does also reflect his poor recent form.

This half-dozen form my shortlist from which my 1-2-3 would be (8) Jasmin De Grugy, (3) Imperial Bede and (9) Onewayortother

Imperial Bede was withdrawn whilst I was still compiling the column, so I'll take (2) Great Samourai as the replacement

Leg 3 @ 1.40...Lexie's Moon won nicely at Stratford just over five weeks ago for a second win in four, both were on testing ground so stamina shouldn't be an issue as she steps up in trip. Broughshane backed up a comfortable win at Fontwell in October by finishing as runner-up over 3m at Ffos Las just over a fortnight ago when bumping into one winning for the fourth time in eight starts.

Asian Star has just five races under her belt with finishes of 312 over hurdles with her win coming here over 2m. An opening mark of 106 isn't a disaster, but she might struggle with the step up in trip and my shortlist is completed by the one I'd expect to win : Solar System. He's 31531 in handicap hurdles and is unpenalised for winning at Warwick six days ago.

I'm probably too well aligned with the market here, but it has to be (5) Solar System and (2) Broughshane for me with (3) Asian Star as Plan B.

Leg 4 @ 2.10...Achille Des Rocs made the frame in 3 of 5 PTP races and wasn't disgraced when a 13 lengths 4th of 12 at Market Rasen 12 days ago. Probably wants further, though. Kap de Triomphe's two UK efforts haven't really caught the eye, but he did win on bumper debut at Naas in February and this isn't the toughest race he'll ever have.

King Uklanda's sole run to date saw him land a bumper at Huntingdon back in May, after which he was sold for £17k, whilst Lawrenny has had three start in bumpers, progressing in each and he followed up a runner-up finish at Sedgefield in January by winning at Newcastle last time out, although that was nearly nine months ago.

The last one that interests me is Sergeant Fury who was beaten by less than two lengths in a Class 2 bumper at Wincanton earlier this month, having won on his sole PTP appearance.

This is one of those races where you could take six darts at nine runners and still miss the frame, but I'd go with (8) Sergeant Fury, (6) Lawrenny and (1) Achille Des Rocs as my trio against the field, although I wouldn't be massively surprised if Kap de Triomphe ran better than a 28/1 (or bigger) ticket might suggest.

Leg 5 @ 2.40...This looks a two-way fight between (1) Elle Est Beau and (5) Rockola. The former was definitely going the right way last season, finishing third in back to back races in November/December, but a fall at Sandown in January seemed to upset her rhythm and she could only manage sixth in two subsequent runs. She's better than that and you can be sure that Team Skelton will have schooled her well in her 220-day break.

Rockola, however, was in action just five weeks ago, finishing fourth here at Southwell after an absence of more than six month. She should kick on for that run and had been a runner-up on her last run of the previous season, from which the third-placed horse is 2 from 2.. She looks reasonably treated off an opening mark of 91 and like Elle Est Beau above, she takes a drop in class here.

(1) Elle Est Beau and (5) Rockola look the standouts for me and with An Cailin Ciuin being withdrawn whilst I was typing, I'll just take this pair.

Leg 6 @ 3.10...The withdrawal of likely favourite Early Morning Dew could open the door for top-weight Neigh Botha, who has actually been plying his trade in Class 4 chases of late finishing 13P343 in that sphere since his last effort over hurdles. That chase win was over today's track and trip and his mark is 3lbs lower than his last chase outing and the drop in class should help.

Gainsbourg returns to hurdling for his handicap debut at this code, having been racing on the Flat/AW for over a year. he has a win and a runner-up finish on the Flat from his last five outings, so should be sharp between the flights, suggesting a clear round puts in the mix.

The others that appeal to me are Window Of Time and Runaway Train with the former the pick of the two. Handicap debutant Window of Time has only raced seven times (1 x AW, 2 x Flat & 4 x hrds), but has finished 232 in her last three efforts over hurdles. Rated joint third best in the field says she's in with a shout here, but as the sole 3yo in the race is afforded a huge 16lbs weight allowance here, effectively making her bottom weight and that could be decisive here.

Runaway Train's bare form isn't much to write home about, but I'm scratching around for a back-up pick and he has shown some promise in the past. His yard are in good nick (24 from 80 = 30% SR over the last month) and have a decent record at this venue...

His jockey has 15 wins and 16 places from his 68 rides over the last year, which isn't bad for a 5lb claimer whose allowance further lowers what was a very fair-looking opening mark of 89. This might well be the poorest race this horse has faced so far and could well be the kickstart he needs, so (5) Runaway Train becomes my backup to (1) Neigh Botha and (14) Window Of Time

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Smurfette and (4) Northern Reel

Leg 2: (8) Jasmin De Grugy, (3) Imperial Bede and ,  (9) Onewayortother and (2) Great Samourai

Leg 3: (5) Solar System, (2) Broughshane and (3) Asian Star

Leg 4: (8) Sergeant Fury, (6) Lawrenny and (1) Achille Des Rocs

Leg 5: (1) Elle Est Beau and (5) Rockola

Leg 6: (1) Neigh Botha, (14) Window Of Time and (5) Runaway Train

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


As ever, the very best of luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Monday 25/11/24

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Monday's racing comes from Kempton and Ludlow. If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Kempton Park...

...and I think we'll follow the money and head for Kempton's good to soft track for six races starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.30...Only two runners appeal to me here and I'd expect this race to be all about (4) Moutarde who showed promise when a runner-up on debut at Galway before not disgracing himself in a Cheltenham Grade 2 nine days ago. He was fourth that day and this represents a huge drop in class.

Next best is probably (8) Our Lil who offered encouragement when beaten by less than two lengths on race debut at Warwick earlier this month and in a weak looking race, a similar effort should be enough to beat most of her rivals here.

Leg 2 @ 1.00...Miami Magic was second in a bumper on debut in May, beaten by just a head at Aintree and then next raced at Fakenham almost four weeks ago, showing no ill effects from a 166-day absence to win by 10 lengths on his first crack at hurdling and that run sets the benchmark here. Groovy Blue hasn't been seen since landing a Fonwell bumper in mid-May on his first run for Ben Pauling and despite his absence, it's hard to believe that he won't have been well schooled over hurdles by this yard.

Sole debutant Marengo Bay cost €58,000 as a 3yo and he's a half-brother to 2½m-2¾m winner hurdles winner Finest Evermore, who also won on the Flat over 2m. The Henderson/de Boinville axis is generally strong and this one could go well in a weak looking race. Salt Rock has shown some promise under Rules after being sold for £200k following a win on his sole PTP run, finishing third on hurdles debut just over a year ago and was only beaten by less than six lengths on his return earlier this month.

Thistle Be The One completes my shortlist on his hurdling debut. His two bumper runs saw him win here at Kempton in late-February at Class 3, before going down by just half a length at Ayr as a runner-up eight weeks later at Class 2. Califet En Vol was third that day, a further four lengths back, but he re-appeared here at Kempton a fortnight ago to win over this course and distance by 15 lengths on his hurdles debut.

(1) Miami Magic & (10) Thistle Be The One, supplemented by (6) Marengo Bay here for me.

Leg 3 @ 1.30...Gidleigh Park won on bumper debut and was 3 from 3 over hurdles at 2m1f to 2m5f before probably finding a combo of three miles plus heavy ground plus Grade 1 company a bit too much in the Albert Bartlett last time out. he did however, win a Grade 2 at HQ back in January and should go well back down in trip. Iberico Lord landed a pair of Class 1 handicap hurdles (Greatwoon & Betfair) last season, but was pulled up in the Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and hasn't been seen since. He's technically 6lbs well in on official ratings here too.

Leave Of Absence was progressive in bumpers finishing 113 (wins at C5 then C3 before a Grade 2 3rd of 13 at 2022's Liverpool festival). He won a Class 3 Novice race on hurdles debut in October 2022 at Ascot, but hasn't raced in over two years now. The Four Sixes completes the line-up and whilst he has been a consistent placer (6 times from 10), he doesn't seem to have the quality of the other three, although his form last winter did read 132F2 and was only beaten by a length and a half at Class 2 last time out. He probably beats Leave of Absence, who'll need te run, but I don't think he gets near my picks (1) Gidleigh Park & (2) Iberico Lord

Leg 4 @ 2.00...Craven Bay is 112 after being asked to go beyond 3m and was only denied a hat-trick by a nose at Fontwell seventeen days ago. Icare Allen's form (PP056987) this year had been uninspiring until he took advantage of a falling mark to score at Uttoxeter yesterday and it'll be intersting to see if he lines up here.

Shantou Express was a decent second at Warwick earlier this month and although winless for some time, has mainly been plying his trade at a hiher level and should still have the measure of many of these here today. The form says that Warranty comes here on a hat-trick, but both wins were on the Flat, where he has performed much better than over hurdles if truth be told and it's now over two years since a hurdle win, but he is 4lbs lower than that day.

Heaven Smart has won just one of fifteen career starts, but that win did come here at Kempton back in February, albeit in a 3m chase. He was a solid third at Fontwell on his last run and could have been much closer but for a mistake two out when pressed for the lead. He was 12 lengths behind the re-opposing runner-up Craven Bay that day and would hope to get closer if he can avoid any jumping errors, but I'm overlooking him here in favour of (1) Craven Bay and (3) Shantou Express with (2) Icare Allen my backup plan.

Icare Allen was withdrawn as I was finishing up this morning, so I'm now taking (5) Heaven Smart as the backup.

Leg 5 @ 2.35...It's hard to see beyond last year's runner-up in this race Kateira, who was also a Grade 2 runner-up at Aintree in April 2023 and won a Class 1 handicap there back in April of this year. She made a mistake 2 out on his return at the start of the month, but should come on for the run here.

Of the others, I think The Height of Fame is the weakest and I expect a 3-way battle for silver here between Pawapuri, Della Casa Lunga and Porter In The Park. Pawapuri has finished 1162 (inc a win in a Listed race) over the last year, but hasn't raced since mid-May. Della Casa Lunga looks best off at the weights and won back to back hurdles at Ludlow in February. She probably needed the run at Bangor eleven days ago after a 195-day absence, whereas Porter In The Park has been kept busy with nine runs in 2024 already, making the frame in six of her last eight in a run of form reading 31212552.

I'd probably rule out Pawapuri for the lack of a recent run and with Della Casa Lunga being rated 15lbs better than Porter In the Park but running oat the same weight, she'd be my alternate here.

Leg 6 @ 3.10...A decent, open-looking but hard to call finale has seven runners who could all technically make the frame!

The Edgar Wallace was last of 14 in the Topham at Aintree in April, but had finished 1122 in his previous four runs, all at this Class 3 level. The ground might count against Will Carver here. he has 4 wins and 2 places from 11 over obstacles, but all of his form is on good ground and it's going to be much slower/softer here.

Doctor Ken, however, is 3 from 3 on good to soft and his chasing career reads 121, all at this level. The fly in this particular ointment is a 616 day absence. Doddiethegreat is the only chase debutant, but has a good hurdling pedigree, having won a Class 2 handicap at Ascot this time last year before going on to be a Class 3 runner-up at Cheltenham in December and then a solid 4th of 21 in the Class 1 Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in February. If transferring that ability to the larger obstacles, he's definitely in the mix for a top trainer/jockey combo.

Bourbali won at this meeting last year and made all to win here again last time out. He's only up 4lbs for that win and if handling the step up in trip, has to be in the mix once more. Thelasthighking was second in this race last year and now runs off a mark 8lbs lower than that 3 length defeat. He has made the frame in 5 of his 9 starts over fences, but has been well beaten in all four starts since this race last year.

And finally, Es Perfecto, who is better than a last of eight runners, 47 lengths adrift LTO would suggest. He's normally there or thereabouts, as a prior run of form reading 24133233 would attest, but he just didn't fire at Sandown back in March. Well rested since, we'll hopefully see the real reliable Es Perfecto, but I do prefer the likes of (5) Bourbali and (4) Doddiethegreat, whilst I'm going to take a chance/value punt on (3) Doctor Ken despite a long absence. He was third at Aintree in October 2021 after 214 days off and then won a Class 3 race there in November 2022 after 220 days off, so there's a possibility here; if only this was Aintree?

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (4) Moutarde & (8) Our Lil

Leg 2: (1) Miami Magic, (10) Thistle Be The One & (6) Marengo Bay

Leg 3: (1) Gidleigh Park & (2) Iberico Lord

Leg 4: (1) Craven Bay, (3) Shantou Express & (2) Icare Allen (5) Heaven Smart

Leg 5: (1) Kateira & (3) Della Casa Lunga

Leg 6: (5) Bourbali, (4) Doddiethegreat & (3) Doctor Ken

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Saturday 23/11/24

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Saturday's racing comes from Ascot, Haydock, Huntingdon, Newcastle, Punchestown and Wolverhampton. If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £75,000 placepot guarantee at Ascot and a whopping £100k at Haydock Park...

And as I'd rather be hung for a sheep than a lamb, let's take a tilt at the big pot at Haydock and the following races on good to soft/soft ground...

Leg 1 @ 12.08, a 7 6-runner, Grade 2, 4yo+ Novice Hurdle over 1m7½f...Bold Light has made the frame on all three starts so far and was a 7 length winner at Kelso last timeout, whilst Country Mile comes here on a hat-trick having won both starts to date including on hurdle debut recently. Roadlesstravelled is two from two over hurdles so far and was a five length winner at Wetherby three weeks ago, whilst 9 lengths was the margin of Saracen Beau's victory at Ayr on the same day.

Rocheval hasn't been seen for almost nine months, but comes here boasting a 100% record from three starts, including two wins over hurdles and the mare Lily du Berlais also runs for the first time this season, having been rested for 199 days after wins at Kelso and Ayr in the spring.

You could make a case for all six above, but my 1-2-3 would be Roadlesstravelled, Bold Light and Lily du Berlais with Rocheval best of the rest.

Leg 2 @ 12.40, a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m½f...The Skeltons won this race last year with Real Stone and look set to repeat the feat with Home Free who is 2 from 2 since a wind op during a five month break this summer. He won very easily by 11 lengths at Ayr four weeks ago and a 10lb rise might not be enough to stop him. Netywell was denied a four-timer when fourth of ten at Carlisle back in April having jumped up two classes and could do better here now back down a grade.

The 8yo Galunggung is interesting with just four runs to his name. he finished 211 over hurdles and then scored on his chase debut at Perth in May. Like many of this field he has been well rested and he has yet to run a bad race. General Medrano needs to turn the clock back to October/November '23 when he finished 112 in consecutive races, but that hoisted his mark from 118 to 135 and he has toiled somewhat since. That said, he's now running off 129, which is 5lbs lower than his runner-up finish at Plumpton this time last year.

My shortlist here consists of the four named above and I think the one to miss out would probably be General Medrano.

Leg 3 @ 1.15, a 15-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m3f...The two I like best here are Beat The Bat and Kamsinas. The former hasn't been seen for almost a year since unluckily bumping into the very useful Dysart Enos (a Class 1 placer last week) at Cheltenham in a three length defeat and with nothing of her ability here, beat The Bat could get back to winning ways if seeing off Kamsinas who won a Grade 2 here at this meeting last year and also won at Kempton in march again at Aintree four weeks ago for a fifth win in his last ten starts.

Top-weight Steel Ally has made the frame in five of his six starts over hurdles and since winning at Wincanton in February has only been beaten by a neck, 1.5 lengths and 1 length in three outings. Josh The Boss return from a six month break to win a 17-runner handicap at Chepstow last month in a hot race that has produced 7 wins and 4 places from 17 runs since. The runner-up Doyen Quest (runs in the 2.30 today) and the third placed horse Take No Chances both won well recently, so the form is working out well.

Punta Del Este is the last on my shortlist and was only beaten by a head on his return from over six months off the track when third of nine at Carlisle three weeks ago, he seemed a bit stretched late on, so a slight drop in trip might help here. That said, he's up a pound and doesn't quite look as strong as the other four I've mentioned and I'm going to take all four of them here.

Leg 4 @ 1.50, a 6-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ Graduation Chase over 2m5½f...Pretty much in line with the early market, my 1-2-3 here would be Iroko, Tahmuras and Trelawne with Deafening Silence the one most likely to upset my plans.

Iroko's last outing saw him finish second in the Grade 1 Mildmay at Aintree, having been a creditable fifth in the Turners Novice Chase at the Cheltenham Festival four weeks earlier and running anything like those kind of levels should be enough here.

Tahmuras has finished 3122 over fences so far in admittedly small fields, but was a winner at both Listed Class and Grade 1 over hurdles. He was only beaten by three quarters of a length in the Grade 2 Coral Pendil Novices Chase at Kempton last time out and it's worth noting that his yard (Paul Nicholls) have won this race three times in the last four years and four of all seven times this race has been held.

Trelawne fell at the second fence in this year's Ultima at Cheltenham and although he failed to win any of his three runs before that one, he wasn't beaten by far (4L, 2L & 2L), but did win on chase debut this time last year and landed both his last two hurdles races. He hasn't raced for 256 days but does go well fresh, having won at Carlisle last November and at Ffos Las the previous November after breaks of 259 and 232 days.

Deafening Silence makes a chase debut today, but after a Class 3 and a Grade 2 win over hurdles last winter, it wouldn't be too much of a surprise to see him go well here and I did consider taking him over Trelawne, but we've had a lot of rain here in the North West overnight and I expect the ground to be soft come race time, which is ideal for Trelawne.

Leg 5 @ 2.30, a 16 15-runner, Class 1, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 3m½f...Last week's impressive win for Doyen Quest pushed him to my no. 1 pick here, but he was withdrawn overnight, opening the doors for several others in what looks a fairly open race.

Kerryhill won a PTP, won at Class 4 on his racecourse debut a year ago and finished fourth and first in two subsequent Grade 2 hurdles. Gwennie May Boy has won four of his last five over hurdles, including a Class 1 success at Aintree when last seen, but an 11lb rise makes this tough.

Zain Nights has run consistently well to make the frame in 7 of his 8 starts (34141113) over the last year and has had the benefit of a recent run at Cheltenham. He is up in class, but rarely runs a bad race and will probably be a decent price for eachway backers and it's a similar story with The Imposter, who over the last two years has finished 31112111111 over hurdles, but all at Classes 3 to 5. He'll run his race, but the effects of ther gulf in class and a near one year absence are against him.

Ottizini, however, won by nine lengths on her seasonal reappearance at Ayr three weeks ago and although up in class, looked like being in good nick. Catch Him Derry is 3 from 4 in handicap company and 331211 over hurdles full stop. Has won on good to soft, soft and heavy, so he won't mind Haydock's wet track today and the trip is no issue either. He looked like being the yard's second string here, but Doyen Quest doesn't run, so this is the Skelton's only chance in the race.

My shortlist is completed by One Big Bang, whose UK record (and his last three outings) reads 112 having gone down by less than two lengths on heavy ground just over three weeks ago after a 207 day absence. He had previously won on both soft and heavy, including a course and distance win here in March.

I'd be looking at One Big Bang and Catch Him Derry as most likely to succeed here backed up by Kerryhill, Gwennie May Boy and Zain Nights here.

Leg 6 @ 3.05, a 9-runner, Grade 1, 5yo+ Chase over 3m1½f...Ahoy Senor was a Grade 1 runner-up at Aintree in April over today's trip beaten by just half a length and returned to Aintree 199 days later last month to finish a creditable Grade 2 third over an inadequate 2m4f and should relish the step back up in trip. Grey Dawning won at both Grade 1 and Grade 2 last season and had probably already done enough last term when third at Aintree in April. Fully refreshed here, stands every chance of getting involved yet again.

Hewick was beaten by half a length behind Envoi Allen in a Grade 1 earlier this month and won the King George at Kempton last year before going on to finish third in the Punchestown Gold Cup at the end of the season. He's proven at this level and rarely runs a bad race over fences. Royale Pagaille completes my shortlist here based on the fact that he won this race last year and his Haydock record reads 11211. Despite this, his jumping isn't the best if truth be told and he has fallen in two of his last three starts and this is why he'd be the one I'd discard from the four runners highlighted. His soft ground form might come back to bite me on the backside, but I need to draw a line somewhere.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (3) Roadlesstravelled, (1) Bold Light & (6) Lily du Berlais

Leg 2: (2) Home Free, (4) Netywell & (6) Galunggung

Leg 3: (5) Beat the Bat, (2) Kamsinas, (1) Steel Ally & (6) Josh The Boss

Leg 4: (2) Iroko, (3) Tahmuras & (4) Trelawne

Leg 5: (15) One Big Bang, (14) Catch Him Derry, (3) Kerryhill, (4) Gwennie May Boy and (7) Zain Nights

Leg 6: (6) Hewick, (5) Grey Dawning & (1) Ahoy Senor

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


As ever, the very best of luck and I hope you all have a great weekend.
Chris

Tix Picks, Friday 22/11/24

/in /by

Friday's UK action is scheduled for Ascot, Catterick, Chepstow & Newcastle. If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Ascot...

The fields at Ascot aren't the biggest, but that's where the biggest pot is, so let's pay a visit for six races starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.20...When I set my template out last night for today's column, we had five runners for this race, we've now got just three and it would be easy for me to just tell you to omit Oak Grove, select the other two and move to race 2, but the reason I prefer the other pair is because...

First Confession won his sole PTP race and then changed hands for £140,000 prior to a decent third place at Cheltenham on hurdling debut four weeks ago behind a pair of subsequent winners including Potters Charm who won at grade 2 next time out.

As for Milan Tino, he was third in a couple of Grade 2 events at Cheltenham last season and has made the frame at both Listed and Grade 2 class at Auteuil. He was rated as best in the field by the market in this year's Fred Winter although the heavy ground took its toll and he was only 6th home of the 17 runners and this looks far easier on paper.

Leg 2 @ 12.55...Again, we've lost a runner (the one I thought would win!) overnight, leaving us with just four to choose from. Rare Edition won his sole bumper and had four wins and a pace from ten over hurdles before scoring on his chasing debut at Uttoxeter seven weeks ago and has finished second of four in a Listed hurdle over further than today's trip. Riskintheground has more experience over fences, having won four of twelve so far. He's down in trip and class today, so should put up more of a fight than when finishing well off the pace in the Class 1 Badger Beer handicap two weeks ago.

Bad is a nine-race maiden, but was only beaten by three lengths on his chase debut over course and distance three weeks ago. He was outpaced late on that day by the winner Bhaloo who looked a decent sort and not having raced for over six months won't have helped. He should come on for the run and a similar effort to that last one could be enough here.

Bucksy Des Epeires might well need the run after 234 days off the track since going down by a neck in a Class 4 handicap hurdle at Ludlow. He's up in class here and didn't seem to be in the best of form at a higher grade before that run having fallen at Lingfield and then coming home last of nine here over today's trip. He might well be getting weight all round, but I think his chasing debut might be as tough one. I'm omitting him from my ticket builder and taking the other three in a cautious approach!

Leg 3 @ 1.30...Royal Infantry is an overnight non-runner, so we're looking at six starters for this one with top-weight Celtic Dino the one I'd expect to lead them home. He finished 131 in bumpers (the defeat being in a Listed race) before romping home by fourteen lengths on his hurdles debut at Wincanton five weeks ago; a repeat of that run should be more than enough. Next best (for me anyway) would be Joyeuse if showing no ill effects from a near 11-month absence since winning on debut at Taunton.

Her yard (Nicky Henderson) has won this race in each of the last three years with last year's victor coming off the back of a two-year absence, so Joyeuse's break might not be an issue.

As for the other four, I've little to separate Nothing To Sea and Wade Out if truth be told. The latter is 2 from 2 so far (1 x NHF & 1 x Hrd), whilst the former won a heavy ground hurdle at Compiegne a month ago. he was useful on the flat, staying 2m and should have good ground speed between the hurdles. Both he and Wade Out are more than capable of making the frame here, but it's Nothing To Sea joining my other two picks on the ticket builder, as he'll offer more value in the market.

Leg 4 @ 2.05...Corrigeen Rock has finished 11421 in his last five over fences and landed a £42k race at this trip/grade last time out, but hasn't raced for ten months and could well need the run. Terresita won a couple of chases last season and was an unlucky faller when leading 2 out in a Sandown handicap that has worked out well from a form perspective. She returned from a 190-day absence to land a Listed race at Carlisle earlier this month and for me, she looks the one to beat.

Persian Time won over 2m1f here last December and then again over 2m2f at Kempton in March, but was only 5th of 6 back there last time out. It was, in fairness, his first run in six months so he should come on for the run. Nocte Volatus comes here on a hat-trick and after wins at both Uttoxeter and Chepstow (after six months off) and although this represents a step up in class, he did finish as a runner-up at this grade last season.

Gemirande completes my five-runner shortlist and there's no doubting him on past ability, having won at Classes 2 & 4 in the 22/23 season before Class 1 silver at Newbury in March 2023 was followed by a 3rd of 12 in a Cheltenham Class 1 handicap the following month. Sadly, his record this tar hasn't been anywhere near that, beaten by 21, 17 and 24 lengths in the spring and although this is a drop in class, he could well need the run after seven months off.

Of the five named above, both Gemirande and Corrigeen Rock are coming off lengthy breaks, so I'll take the other three ie (2) Terresita, (3) Persian Time & (6) Nocte Volatus.

Leg 5 @ 2.40...We lost Perseus Way overnight, so nine are set to go to post headed in the weights by Aurigny Mill and Gin Coco. The former had three wins and two places from ten over hurdles for Vic Dartnall before a n easy 10 length win at Newbury a fortnight ago on his yard debut for Robert Walford despite a six month absence from the track. That kind of effort outs him right in the mix here, even if he is up 7lbs for that run.

As for Gin Coco, he won this race last year off just 2lbs lower than today but did struggle in to defeats of 27, 15 and 27 lengths in his three subsequent runs last season. He did, however, return from a five-month break to finish second of seven at Chepstow last month, beaten by just a neck following wind surgery, so could be in with a shout again here.

Williethebuilder is two from seven over hurdles and has looked a different proposition so far this season. he was only denied by a short head over 2m at Wetherby in mid-October coming off a 235 day absence, but went one better to win by half a length over that same course and distance next/last time out although he had been put up 2lbs. He'll find this tougher, though up in class and another 5lbs, so this might not be the one for him.

Break My Soul has yet to fail to make the frame in her six starts and after wins at both Chepstow and Fontwell in the spring, she was only caught on the line in a Class 2 handicap over today's course and distance three weeks ago, coming off a 170-day absence. Her jockey and trainer teamed up to win this race in 2020 and 2021 and there's a very good chance they make it three from five today with this progressive mare.

Bottom-weight Mirabad completes my shortlist, he's lightly raced and his career record reads 41221 and he has had the benefit of a recent run or two, finishing second at Exter last month before an 18 lengths success at Hereford 18 days ago. This is, of course, tougher, up in class and weight, but he was no mug on the Flat in France, so should have some good ground speed between flights and does get weight all round.

Plenty with chances here, but I'm taking my chances with (1) Aurigny Mill, (7) Break My Soul & (10) Mirabad.

Leg 6 @ 3.15...This looks like a three-horse shootout between (1) Regatta de Blanc, (3) Regarde and (9) Law Of Supply. Regatta be Blanc was 3rd of 16 at Chepstow last time out despite going off as a 4/6 favourite. In her defence, she had been off the track for 161 days, it was her hurdling debut and she probably found 2m3½f a bit on the sharp side as her previous three races were Hunter Chases at 2mf to 3m1½f where she finished 121. Her last crack at fences saw her make all to win by 94 lengths at Cheltenham in May.

Regarde is three from six over fences and was relatively comfortable when scoring by four lengths at Kempton (3m½f) a month ago some seven months after finishing as runner-up at Huntingdon in mid-March. He's up 6lbs here, but was cosy last time out and his yard are in good form.

The above pair should be joined in the frame by Law Of Supply who won on his chase debut at Worcester just over five weeks ago. This was his first outing in seven months and he was much better than a 3.5 length margin of victory might suggest; he was well clear on the run-in and and was sensibly eased right down by jockey Tom Bellamy once he knew the race was won.

You could make a case for the likes of Bertie Wooster (a winner at Taunton in April) or Morfee (placed on six of nine over fences), but I do suspect that my three-horse shortlist should be a cut above the rest of the field here.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) First Confession & (4) Milan Tino

Leg 2: (2) Rare Edition, (3) Riskintheground & (4) Bad

Leg 3: (1) Celtic Dino, (2) Nothing To Sea & (6) Joyeuse

Leg 4: (2) Terresita, (3) Persian Time & (6) Nocte Volatus

Leg 5: (1) Aurigny Mill, (7) Break My Soul & (10) Mirabad

Leg 6: (1) Regatta de Blanc, (3) Regarde & (9) Law Of Supply

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck! (we might need it)
Chris

Tix Picks, Thursday 21/11/24

/in /by

OK, guys, I'm back in the hotseat upon my return from a brief trip abroad and hopefully I can continue the fine form shown by Matt here in my absence. Thursday's UK action is scheduled for Lingfield, Southwell, Warwick, Wincanton & Wolverhampton.

If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Southwell...

And as it's likely to be a tough first day at the helm, I might as well aim for the big one and tackle these six races on Southwell's standard going tapeta...

Leg 1 @ 4.30...Anthropologist and Fernando both won last time out, both are only up 4lbs for their wins and the former also takes a drop in class here. Elsewhere both Montbeliarde and Queen of Good News have been runners-up in two of their last three starts but the former is up in class here, whilst the latter drops three classes.

Anthropologist is the one most likely to lead, but there's no out and out front runner here, which does give a chance to those who might otherwise have been left behind, whilst with low draws preferred over this track and trip, that's another tick for Anthropologist from stall 2 of 9.

He won't be the market's choice here, but Anthropologist ticks most boxes for me today and I'll take him along with fellow LTO winner Fernando and triple-grade class dropper Queen of Good News in the opener.

Leg 2 @ 5.00...Waiting All Night looks like a potential front-runner here and if he brings his Newmarket summer form to the table, he has a great chance of giving his yard more success at a track where they've had 7 winners and 4 placers from 20 over the last year. Local Music has only failed to make the frame twice in her nine starts over the past year with three wins and three runner-up finishes.

Rogue Encore comes here on a hat-trick after back to back 1m wins at Newcastle and is a big danger despite a 6lb penalty, as is Helm Rock if running like he did at Chelmsford last time out. He was only beaten by head after being denied a clear run and the one horse from that race to have run again went on to win at Wolverhampton five days ago.

And whilst I do like the look of Waiting All Night, it's (2) Local Music, (4) Rogue Encore & (5) Helm Rock for me here.

Rogue Encore was withdrawn whilst I was writing the piece, so (1) Waiting All Night takes his place on the tickets.

Leg 3 @ 5.30...Al Rayyan blew the start at Kempton on debut six weeks ago but ran on really well to finish fourth and if coming on for the run and getting away more smoothly, should be in the mix here today for a yard with 17 wins and 16 places from 58 over the last month and a course record of 9 wins and 6 places from 30 over the last five years. Cy Twombly has run to a reasonable level in two starts so far and could well be involved again here; his trainer/jockey have a good record together at this venue.

The Gosden newcomer Gamrai is interesting, his dam was a winner at 1m2f and he's related to 1m winner Aljazzi and a half-brother to Majestic Noor and the versatile triple-code winner Liverpool Knight. The yard is in great form, especially with today's jockey on the saddle and this one could well win on debut. Debutants Wolfpack and Atlantic Sunset are also of interest, but I'm playing it relatively safe here with (1) Ar Rayyan, (3) Cy Twombly & (4) Gamrai.

Leg 4 @ 6.00...The second division of the race above looks a much weaker affair with only Pride of Donegal making much appeal from the seven runners to have already raced. He was only beaten by three lengths over a mile on debut at Newcastle a fortnight ago defying odds of 28/1 and should come on for the run, whilst it is hoped that Hallelujah U will also be able to build upon his 5th of 11 (3.5 lengths) run here over 7f a month ago. He didn't get a clear run that day but finished stronger so might appreciate the extra furlong here for a yard with a 28% win strike rate over the last month and 4 winners plus 3 placers from his last 15 Southwell A/W runners.

All of which might well be blown out of the water by another newcomer from the Gosden yard, the Lope De Vega colt Written For You. He is a half-brother to several winners including Glorious Journey who won eight times between 6f and 1m including three Group 2 races, 1m winner Queen For You and 2-y-o 7f/1m winner Love Is You.

So, I'll take (3) Hallelujah U, (5) Pride of Donegal & (8) Written For You for this one.

Leg 5 @ 6.30...Top-weight Artistic Star drops back into handicap company after five Class 1 races and if fit to go first time up after a seven-month break, could well have been underestimated by the assessor, even if 106 isn't a mark to be taken lightly and we've already mentioned the 30-day and course form of his trainer Ralph Beckett earlier. Max Mayhem won a Class 2 handicap on his last A/W outing just over a year ago and comes here off the back of a two length defeat in a £52k handicap at Goodwood.

Course and distance winner Andaleep was a three-quarter length runner-up at Kempton seventeen ago in a 14-runner field and that came of the back of an excellent run at 66/1 to finish 5th of 31 in the Cambridgeshire at the end of September, so this horse clearly has ability and isn't afraid of company, but the one to beat here has to be Champagne Prince, who is three from three on the A/W and won here over course and distance last time out and shouldn't be anchored by a 5lb rise.

Dark Moon Rising is another to consider, as he's better than his LTO 21st of 23 at Doncaster might suggest, as he'd finished 233 with small margins of defeat in his previous three runs, but I'm overlooking him in favour of (1) Artistic Star, (5) Andaleep & (8) Champagne Prince.

Leg 6 @ 7.00...The early morning market says it's a three horse race from the top of the card and I'd tend to agree that this should be between Paddy's Day, Strong Johnson & Dashing Harry and I've got very little between them in my head.

Paddy's Day drops in class after finishes of 4223 and not beaten by much in any of them, he ruins of the same mark as his LTO C&D third of nine and with his jockey taking 5lbs off, he should be on the premises once more.

Strong Johnson was going well at Wolverhampton last week, leading at the halfway point before his reins snapped and having been passed by a couple inside the final furlong, he was eased down with no real hope of being ridden out. That said, he did make all to at Newcastle two starts ago and a similar run might well be enough here.

Dashing Harry probably just about shades it here, though as he was only denied by a short head (headed on the line) over course and distance three days ago and goes again off the same mark. He was a winner at Kempton three starts ago and drops in class today.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Queen of Good News, (4) Anthropologist & (5) Fernando

Leg 2: (2) Local Music, (4) Rogue Encore & (5) Helm Rock & (1) Waiting All Night (late sub)

Leg 3: (1) Ar Rayyan, (3) Cy Twombly & (4) Gamrai

Leg 4: (3) Hallelujah U, (5) Pride of Donegal & (8) Written For You

Leg 5: (1) Artistic Star, (5) Andaleep & (8) Champagne Prince

Leg 6: (1) Paddy's Day, (2) Strong Johnson & (3) Dashing Harry

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Tix Picks, 20/11/24

/in /by

Another winning ticket yesterday but, again, the dividend was measly meaning profits were, too. Still 25% ROI is not terrible and clawed back some of the Monday deficit. Wednesday is my final contribution in this stint - Chris is back tomorrow - and I think we'll stay over jumps.

It's cold out there, Hexham failing to beat the frost, but we currently have jumps racing from Ffos Las and Warwick; and all-weather meetings at Kempton and Dundalk.

If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Kempton...

 

 

 

Across to west Wales today as we tackle the Ffos Las placepot where soft ground means runners abound.

12.15 Ffos Las - Leg 1

A lot  has to be taken on trust with short-priced novice hurdle recruits from the point fields. In the case of Buckna, at least, we have the fact his point had some depth and his price tag was £350,000. Oof. A. Admiral Stewart was beaten in his bumper having won a point to point, and he also goes on A. It's hard to see both of those two off the ticket.

12.50 Ffos Las - Leg 2

A competitive low grade novices' handicap chase next, with a shortish favourite in Montys Soldier. He was a staying on fourth in a good ground Fakenham novices' handicap hurdle over two and a half miles last time, and gets a lot of condition changes here: fences, more galloping track, softer turf and an extra half mile in trip. He should handle those differences based on pedigree and prior form but it's not a given so he'll have company on my main 'A' tickets. The Scorpion King is experienced, has performed well on soft and sees this range out fine; he's A team, too.

Shillanavogy won a 2m4f soft ground handicap hurdle and was a narrow second in a similar race to this last time. He handles soft, has nearly won at the trip and should run well if fit enough after six months off. Wide To West have soft ground three mile form but has been off for seven months and his trainer is not firing on all cylinders at the moment. Hobb's Delight has been going close but on quicker turf; he might handle softer well but he's yet to prove it and I'll leave him alone. Wonder Of The Seas is more attractive as a place play, with three silver medals in his last four runs, two of them on a deep surface. B's bar Hobb's.

[Casting Aspersions might run better than his price first time in a handicap]

13.25 Ffos Las - Leg 3

Assuming he can jump, dual bumper winner Blue Las should make the frame. A banker. In case he can't, Andy Amo is an obvious alternative for a trainer (Rebecca Curtis) with a good record in the race and whose bumper form implies this sort of test should be ideal. B.

14.00 Ffos Las - Leg 4

This 0-100 novices' handicap hurdle could see any of a number spring forward on what they've shown so far. The established form is with Greenways, but he's never raced on soft ground and is short enough with that to prove. Lady Harriett looks more solid, with form on soft and at the trip and as an easy last day winner. Fresh Speculation has been consistent in defeat but shoulders top weight against more interesting rivals. He, like Greenways, could easily make the frame, but won't be on my ticket.

Atreides was unlucky not to win two back, his run coming too late and, if his seven pound conditional can elicit a tune, he's a player. B. Just Aidan has been well backed early in spite of middling form and seven months off. It's possible he's stepped forward for his summer and is a tentative B.

I'm going to throw some rags on C here, as well, because it could go that way. Handicap debutants Jukebox Joker and Dish Of The Day, as well as Greenways and Fresh Speculation. I don't really like this race!

14.35 Ffos Las - Leg 5

Another 0-100 handicap chase but this time most of them are what they are: exposed handicappers. Favourite is Lermoos Legend but he doesn't love this sort of ground and has top weight. Supasunrise and One Last Glance look much more reliable against race conditions. Both on A.

Ileny Royale is an interesting one at a price. Ex-French, he ran better than his finishing position last time and gets the tongue tie that was a feature of his better French form for the first time in UK today. I'm not sure about the ground for Lelant, Esperti or Faitque de l'Isle; but Bobbi's Beauty will go through it and may try to lead - the trouble is, she's having her first run for eight months for a yard out of form.

I'm taking more B's with Rock On Rita, Higgs and My Granny Lily all expected to cope with conditions. But I could easily have this race wrong.

15.10 Ffos Las - Leg 6

A trappy mares' handicap hurdle closes out the card and I'm again, reluctantly, taking on the well-backed favourite Hedera Park on the basis of no form on soft. The support suggests connections think he'll handle it and he'll be in the frame if he does; but there are three places to go at so we can still get the job done.

Cast's Tasha has all the weight but is fully proven in conditions for a trainer, Ben Clarke, who has started the season well. It's Easy should benefit from this stouter test than two miles last time and goes in deep ground. Both on A.

Elusiveness has the benefit of a run and gets first time cheekpieces. I'm convinced she'll stay but I respect connections. B. Sanda Rena's best run was on soft and she gets a tongue tie for handicap second start; that's enough to guess onto B. And Triple Nickle is very consistent and handles any ground. B.

*

Which for 2p lines before multipliers gives us the below (£26.40 staked), as it looks in the Tix software. Do give it a try if you haven't already. Even if you just want to do a 2x2x2x2x2x2 perm or some such, just put all your picks in the 'A' column and that will get you a 5% bonus on any returns.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good Luck!
MATT

Tix Picks, 19/11/24

/in /by

After 17 straight winners highlighted across three days, we came down to earth with a mighty bump in the last leg of yesterday's Leicester placepot, as one of the two A picks refused to race and took no part; and the other performed little better. Galling was that the favourite for a bang in form team sauntered home. Ugh. On we go.

There's a bit of weather around today, but we currently have jumps racing from Carlisle, Fakenham and Limerick; and all-weather meetings from Lingfield and Southwell, the latter having to pass a 10am inspection.

If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Southwell if it passes its inspection...

 

 

 

We're jumping at the border town of Carlisle today, a midday start, and a more stats-driven approach for the Tix Picks preview.

12.00 Carlisle - Leg 1

A very competitive handicap hurdle to kick off and some unexposed ones. Iain Duncan runs two and both vie for favouritism in the same ownership. Slight preference is for Teddy Mac. A. Jonjo and AJ send one all the way up from Jackdaws Castle near Cheltenham, and they take off 10lb from Keppel Queen's 11-13 by deploying their promising claimer, Benjamin Macey. A.

George Bewley has three places (and a winner) from 10 handicap debut runners in the past 2 years, and a 58% PRB. He gets B action for Wise Move (we'll see about that!). I'll lob the other Duncan horse, Adveram, on B, too; and I'm also taking some C insurance in an inscrutable opener. They'll come from Topkapi Star, Glory Hights and Don Brocco.

12.30 Carlisle - Leg 2

An eight-runner (down from ten already) novices' handicap chase and one more defector will mean only two places. Sheesh. Incredibly, Lucinda Russell has just a 5% win rate at Carlisle, both in the past year and the past five years. On that basis I'm swerving Lady In The Park on A - which might prove remiss. Boomslang has been very consistent, but pays for that with all the weight here; still he's likely to again run well. A. Dream Boy is another to whom that comment applies and, a winner on chase debut last time, he's A too.

On B, we'll take Raceview Road, whose trainer's course record is a concern, and the aforementioned Lady In The Park.

13.03 Carlisle - Leg 3

Leg 3 is a maiden hurdle which looks just a bit more than a toss up between the O'Neills' Monty Bodkin and John McConnell's Ira Hayes, the latter getting the banker nod on account of his trainer's selectively successful forays to Carlisle. Sole A, and a possible place lay insurance option for those so inclined.

Nick Alexander (good track record, good trainer switch record) runs Orkney Blue who also cannot be discounted, but I'm going narrow here.

13.33 Carlisle - Leg 4

Another coin flip and another John McConnell runner, Kevin's Pride. It's 11/1 bar two and 28/1 bar three in this race so take your pick. Both will very likely be placed if they jump round. I'll go with Sandy Thomson's Dedicated Hero this time. A.

14.05 Carlisle - Leg 5

The penultimate leg, if we're still rolling, is a veterans' handicap chase. One nonner so far takes us down to five and so two places. Another absentee and it's win only. With that in mind, we'll cover everything. Flic Ou Voyou is consistent and likely to lead, and he handles quick ground. Obvious A player. Marown has top weight but most of his best form is on softer. B. Envious Editor drops from 0-140 company the past thrice to this 0-130 grade and he's run well many times on quick so he goes on A, too.

Former Grade 1 winner Cornerstone Lad (Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 2019) has shown all his best form on soft or heavy and at two miles. As I write, he's just been taken out - so we're win only. On that basis, although Ladronne has looked out of form in his last four starts, he does fit on back form and must go on B.

14.40 Carlisle - Leg 6

And we close with a deeper than average novices' hurdle. Epic West has point form so we know he jumps and Jamie Snowden sends him a long way north. Easy A. I'm not mad about Koukeo's form, despite a subsequent winner following him home last time, so he goes on B. Prince Of Perth has been out of the frame in two similar contests already and I'm swerving him altogether. But I do quite like Broderick, trained by red hot right now Jennie Candlish. He couldn't go the tempo on fast ground at Sedgefield last time, but at this more galloping track and on softer ground he can make the frame. A. A few of the others look handicap projects for down the line, though at least one might step forward today.

*

Which for 5p lines before multipliers gives us the below (£20 staked), as it looks in the Tix software. Do give it a try if you haven't already. Even if you just want to do a 2x2x2x2x2x2 perm or some such, just put all your picks in the 'A' column and that will get you a 5% bonus on any returns.

 

 

 

 

 

Good Luck!
MATT

Tix Picks, 18/11/24

/in /by

Another small profit on Saturday, which was a pity as the post highlighted all six winners including 10/1 Il Ridoto in the big race; and four of the six exactas (1-2) which paid £8.10, £60.60, £8.50 and £21.80!

There's plenty to go at again today, with jumps racing from Leicester, Plumpton and Exeter; and evening action from Southwell and Wolverhampton.

If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Southwell...

 

 

 

We're heading to Leicester and a video Tix preview today, so I can show you the tool as well as the Tix Picks!

 

*

All of which gives us the following, as it looks in the Tix software. Do give it a try if you haven't already. Even if you just want to do a 2x2x2x2x2x2 perm or some such, just put all your picks in the 'A' column and that will get you a 5% bonus on any returns.

 

 

 

 

Good Luck!
MATT

Tix Picks, 16/11/24

/in /by

A 49% ROI (£24 to £35.70) with Friday's Tix play at Cheltenham was more fun and giggles than rock and roll, but it keeps things ticking over. There's a bumper Saturday menu today, with the Paddy Power Gold Cup highlighting Cheltenham's November fixture, as well as high class action at Navan and competitive racing at Uttoxeter and Wetherby before the tea time cards kick in. Today there's Listed racing at Newcastle and a nine-race bonanza at Wolverhampton.

If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including nearly £120,000 rollover in the Scoop6 and a £250,000 placepot guarantee at Cheltenham...

 

 

Let's wheel back to Cheltenham for that big guarantee, starting at...

12.35 Cheltenham

The juveniles get us started in a 3yo Triumph Hurdle Trial guess up. James Owen won the race for the Gredley family last year with Burdett Road and, staying close to Poplar, he saddles East India Dock for the same connections this time. He is 90-rated on the flat, which loosely translates to 130-odd potential over hurdles; that would be enough to take this, though he may need to improve a little on an easy win at Wincanton last month. He led or pressed the lead all the way there, and might face contention from, amongst others, Model Approach if attempting that run style again. A.

In opposition is a JP McManus runner, My Noble Lord, trained by the Greenall/Guerriero axis - an emerging force - and this lad has won his last four, three on the flat and his debut over hurdles. On the level, he reached a progressive peak of 83 and his single jumps run was also slightly below the bar set by East India Dock; still, he was very novicey in that initial effort and can improve a chunk for the experience. A.

One other worth a mention and a place on B is the highly experienced ex-French Static, who was a neck second in a Listed contest on his UK bow and might have been a touch unlucky not to win. He doesn't have the upside of the other two named but brings battle hardiness to the table. Prairie Angel has won two middling Irish contests and was lesser-rated on the flat, so it will be disappointing for the British contingent if he's good enough to beat them: the overseas team will surely have much better Triumph options as the season wears on.

1.10 Cheltenham

Race 2 is an amateur riders' handicap chase, a contest where not all amateurs are made equal. Take Patrick Mullins for instance: he's ridden 50 winners at a near 0ne-in-three clip in the past year. That's more than many pro's have achieved and a strike rate none will have matched! He gets on the unexposed Transmission, who was second here on his chasing debut last time behind yesterday's Listed winner Hyland and looks credibly handicapped off 129.

It's obviously a substantial risk almost banking in a race like this but he's my sole A, to which I'll add just one B in Read To Return, trained by Tony Martin. The trainer had a second in a handicap hurdle here yesterday and this chap was 5th of 16, beaten only six lengths, in this race last year. Again, jockeys are important, and Fin Maguire is another highly experienced amateur.

Come On Teddy gets a positive trainer switch, and Toby McCain-Mitchell is another jockey uplift on The Newest One, winner of a similar race at the October meeting; but I'm going to risk it for a biscuit on Transmission, A, and Read To Return, B.

1.45 Cheltenham

A Grade 2 novice chase is Leg 3, and we have another borderline even money favourite. Horses sent off 10/11 to 11/10 in novice chases since 2019 have placed at 55%, a rate at which they should have just about won - so while I'm not opposing L'Eau Du Sud, I'm also not singling him. He was a smart hurdler last season, second in both the Betfair Hurdle and the County Hurdle, and he kicked off his novice chase campaign with a ten length win at Stratford. He made one howler there, and Cheltenham will offer greater tests than Shakespeare country, but he's obviously classy.

Lookaway won a G2 hurdle here last October before running second in the 2023 Greatwood Hurdle so clearly acts on the track. His win in a match at Uttoxeter on his sole fencing outing tells us little but he jumped adequately and handles top of the ground. I wonder if he has quite the scope of a couple of these, though.

The experienced one, having been summer jumping, is Breizh River. He's progressed from 107 to 135 and, while these are 'proper winter horses', we know quick ground and match fitness won't be issues.

With there being eight runners at time of writing, I'm going L'Eau Du Sud tentatively as A banker, with Lookaway and Breizh River on B. It might be as simple as that... and it might not be!

2.20 Cheltenham

The Paddy Power next. Ginny's Destiny is favourite and has loads of track form including when winning a novice at this meeting last year and when running second in the Turners (as well as a the Manifesto at Aintree). Stage Star was an all the way winner of this for Nicholls and Cobden last year off a mark of 155, and they'll bid to repeat the dose most likely with a horse rated exactly the same.

The Irish have a pretty poor record in this in recent years and I'm leaning into that in the hope they again miss the board. Focusing on 7-9yo's that ran in the last 60 days leaves me with Ga Law and Il Ridoto in support. All three on A. [And I might have a tiny e/w bet on Weveallbeencaught with as many extra places as I can get]

2.55 Cheltenham

A handicap hurdle next and another race with a strong favourite but a competitive look underneath. Doyen Quest nearly won here last month, and steps up to three miles for the first time. He looks an obvious jolly but does need to stay this extra half a mile. A.

As I referenced yesterday, David Pipe is a man for this meeting, his American Sniper running very well in 6th after being made an awful lot of use of early in the race. This time it's the JP horse Thanksforthehelp which is taking market action and commands respect. With form of P06 he hardly screams 'bet', but he's tumbled back to the mark off which he won a Class 2 Pertemps qualifier in February 2023 and he was entitled to need his first run of the season: this looks to have been the plan. A.

Gowel Road has a lot of weight but plenty of form under these conditions, too, for another trainer - Nigel Twiston-Davies - who gets winners at this meeting - he goes on B. And Pinnacle Peak and Zeeband are 'C' players with a squeak. Unnamed favourite on B, too.

3.30 Cheltenham

Tony Martin won this two years ago with the favourite and bids to reprise that with the almost unspellable Hamsiyann. He's been off since May, when he ran well in the Chester Plate, but has a stone in hand of the flat to hurdle extrapolation. Of course, he may simply not be good enough; but it's folly to oppose him in the placepot. A.

Henry Daly's mare Wyenot has cracking form behind the brilliant and under-rated Golden Ace; she led all the way here last month and, up six, will make another bold bid from the front - A. I'm against the Skeltons' Major Fortune on account of the ground, though he won't be a shock winner, and I prefer the claims of class-dropping Long Draw. B. Champagne Twist won the Novices' Final at Sandown last season and, if fit enough on this first run of the campaign, is another who can go forward from his current mark. B.

There are others with chances in a deep-looking final leg but we can't take them all!

*

All of which gives us the following, as it looks in the Tix software. Do give it a try if you haven't already. Even if you just want to do a 2x2x2x2x2x2 perm or some such, just put all your picks in the 'A' column and that will get you a 5% bonus on any returns.

 

Remember, no Tix Picks on Sunday, though there are often sweet fish to fry - so do get involved yourself. I'll be back Monday morning.

Good Luck!
MATT

Tix Picks, 15/11/24

/in /by

A nice win for Chris with Thursday's Tix play at Chelmsford, and there's plenty to go at today, Friday, with racing from Cheltenham's November meeting, as well as Newcastle, Punchestown and Southwell over jumps, and Wolverhampton and Dundalk this evening on the sand.

If you're new around here, it's worth taking a moment to familiarise with the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £200,000 guarantee at Cheltenham...

 

 

It's an unsurprisingly challenging six-legger at Chelto but with the big guarantee it's well worth a dart or two, starting at...

1.10 Cheltenham

We start with a big field handicap hurdle for conditional jockeys, and it could well be an early bath! There are two runners, Double Powerful and Plaisir Des Flos on six-timers - double hat-tricks if you will - and they're obvious A players given their lowly starting points and waited with run styles (it's often harder for the handicapper to assess the level of horses that win from off the pace).

David Pipe is a man to keep on the team at this fixture, and his American Sniper - although lugging top weight - won this race last year off just a pound lower mark. B. Second in the weights is Whatsupwithyou, a lad with three silver medals round here and, most notably, a fourth in the Martin Pipe. He's another easy B.

I want C action here, too, and I'll lob in the Tony Martin possible plot (whose form I don't really like but whose price I respect), Young Lucy; and more interestingly/speculatively, Getalead (potentially very well handicapped on old form despite arriving on a hat-trick and a lover of good ground), Littlefoot (unexposed and showed a liking for big field quick ground at Ballinrobe recently) and Clonbury Bridge at the other end of the exposure spectrum but one who relishes a top of the ground battle in a big field.

Phew.

1.45 Cheltenham

From the melee of race one to a four-runner novices' chase. Win only for placepot purposes makes it tricky, as does 4/1 the outsider: they've all got a theoretical 20% or better chance of winning. Springwell Bay is favoured and he has looked classy on occasion, as when winning over 2m3f last time; but his pedigree doesn't assure that he'll stay even though he's gone close in lower class handicap hurdles at this range. Still, he cannot sensibly be left off A tickets; but nor is he banker material.

He'll share top billing with Hyland, an easy course/distance/going winner last month. He's up in grade but could have more to offer on good turf; and I think I'm throwing the other pair on A, too. Buddy One is the highest rated of these and can be forgiven a below par spin last time; he won at this meeting (3m handicap hurdle) last year and is usually bang there. Meanwhile, the Olly Murphy / Sean Bowen combo is hot hot hot right now, and they combine with Resplendent Grey, a winner of five of his eleven races and his sole chase run. He's the lowest rated of these but has bags of scope to step forward - though he'll need to prove he can handle both this far and this fast. I think he probably can.

Unnamed favourite as well.

2.20 Cheltenham

We're at leg 3 and could hardly be accused of taking a chance yet! This is the Grade 2 Shloer Chase and another four-cornered contest. Jonbon is a short-priced favourite, and he's six from six in his head to heads with these rivals, winning the four races in which he's faced them. Indeed, he's won 14 of 17 lifetime, and every time when off a layoff, including in this race last year. He might not win but he's got to be the banker. Sole A, and hope he's as good as ever.

N.B. If something interesting happened from a placepot perspective in one of the first two legs, you might consider laying Jonbon to cover some/all of your placepot stakes...

2.55 Cheltenham

Cross Country time and this handicap comprises largely the usual suspects, but with a couple of newcomers at opposite ends of the awareness continuum. Conflated is a mid-160's genuine Grade 1 horse that ran a close second to Jonbon in the G1 Melling Chase in April. He has all the weight to carry and this has traditionally been a sighter race for Gordon Elliott's Festival Cross Country brigade, almost all of which have been out of the frame at single figure prices. And yet this fella is taking support as I write.

Virtually unknown to the British audience - and to me - is Sweet David, a five-year-old French raider trained by Gabriel Leenders. He ran a huge race on his cross country debut at Craon and, if that wasn't a flash in the pan, he's at the right end of the handicap to get involved. Leenders deploys Felix de Giles to steer, his record over this course and distance reading 132432532 in the last few years.

It's a really tough race to unpick, with lots trying the fences for the first time, something that is generally a negative. Gavin Cromwell's Cheltenham record is right up there, and his Fameaftertheglory was third over these fences, albeit on soft ground. The quicker lawns would be a concern but he at least shapes up well otherwise. Back On The Lash won this off 138 in 2021, and a later season race over the same course/distance in 2023 off 137; he runs today from a perch of just 122, testament to his spotty form since. But as a dual cross country scorer in a field largely made up of virgins in the discipline, he might step back to something closer to his old sparkle.

In spite of my reservations, I'm taking Conflated on A along with Sweet David; and Fameaftertheglory on B and Back On The Lash on C. But I might easily have this race wrong.

3.30 Cheltenham

Six runners contest this G2 novice hurdle over 2m5f and two of them are very big prices indeed. Valgrand bashed Gale Mahler last time, which was unexpected, and both step up markedly in trip - from two miles. Gale Mahler gets five pounds more of a weight pull this time and I just don't quite believe the margin from their previous meeting, so both go on A. Potters Charm has more scope to improve but he'll need to, on both bare form and hurdling aptitude; it's the latter which sees him relegated to B on my tickets. And, while Rockstown Girl is probably overpriced at 25/1, I don't see all of the three already mentioned being out of the frame.

Unnamed favourite on B also.

4.00 Cheltenham

And we close with a 2m novices' handicap hurdle where a single non-runner will mean only three places. Sheesh. Fasol is an unexposed ex-French fastgroundophile. Group placed on the level this will be his handicap debut and, off 108, he could be absolutely lobbed in (he's got a flat RPR higher than his best current hurdles RPR - you'd normally expect the jumping one to be around 40lb superior!) - A.

Much more obvious is Balhambar, a smart flat horse when with Sir Michael Stoute and a decent dual purpose player now switched to Harry Derham. He seems to handle any ground, had a nice pipe opener on the flat last month and should go well. A.

I'm taking three on B, Chutzpal, Wreckless Eric and Clap Of Thunder and, frankly, I'm spready pretty thinly...

[Outside of the placepot, I might risk a penny each way on Dream Escape at 50/1+, just for kicks]

*

All of which gives us...

 

Good Luck!
MATT

Tix Picks, Thursday 14/11/24

/in /by

Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Chelmsford, Market Rasen, Sedgefield & Taunton.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The money is good on the Essex Speedway so let's head for the polytrack for six races beginning with...

5.00 Chelmsford, a 15-runner, Class 5, 2yo fillies maiden over 7f...

Six of the fifteen have yet to race and are therefore unknown quantities, so in races like this if I'm having three picks, I tend to take two with experience and one debutant and of those with a run under their belts Magic Glow, Mrs Dowley and Sheephavensbay set the benchmark.

Magic Glow was a 1.5 length runner-up on debut at Wolverhampton in September, but never really got involved back there next/last time out a fortnight later, but if running like she did first time out that might be enough here. Mrs Dowley was third of twelve on her sole start to date, finishing strongly at Wolverhampton over 6f just three days ago and she might well relish the extra furlong, whilst Sheephavensbay produced her best effort to date last time out when beaten by less than a length over 7f at Wolverhampton (3rd of 11) last time out.

Low draws work well here over 7f and the trio above are in stalls 3, 4 and 15, but despite a poor draw, Sheephavensbay has that Chelmsford non-negotiable early pace...

Of the newcomers Antalya, Casual Encounter and Queen Sansa appeal more than the other three. Antalya is by Time Test and is half-sister to 5f winner Istanbul and 6f winners Darwina and Soulofchess. The dam Anadolu won over 5f too, so there's plenty of pace in her breeding.

Casual Encounter is by Passing Glance and is a half-sister to 1m3½f winner City Spirit. She's out of Cape Spirit whose own best efforts came at 1m3f to 1m6f, so this one might well need further in time. Queen Sansa is by dual Group 1, 1m2f winner Almanzor out of New Jazz who was a winner over a mile and made the frame in 5 of 7 starts at 7f to 1m1f.

Casual Encounter has the best of the draw in stall 6 of this trio, but I think I'll take (2) Antalya from the debutants along with (9) Magic Glow & (10) Mrs Dowley in this tricky opener.

5.30 Chelmsford, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3-5yo novice stakes over 7f...

Needlepoint sets the standard on form, having won a 5.5f maiden at Chantilly on her sole outing, but much will depend on her fitness after 17 months off. Of those with a more recent run, Space Trooper has finished 332 so far and was 3rd of 7 over 1m here on debut two months ago and most lately a 1.5 length runner-up over 7f at Newcastle, whilst bottom weight Anamika was also a runner-up last time out going down by just half a length here at Chelmsford over a mile. And having made most that day and caught late on, the drop back to 7f might help.

Safety first, I'll take all three; (1) Needlepoint, (2) Space Trooper & (6) Anamika due to concerns about the top weight's fitness.

6.00 Chelmsford, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Riot is only 2lbs higher than when winning this race last year and ran a decent race at Wolverhampton last time out. Ultramarine has made the frame in seven of his last eight over the past three months.

Extrication was a three length runner up here over course and distance four weeks ago, whilst Arctic Dawn is 223 in his last three, finishing as runner-up beaten by half a length and a length on his two A/W starts and former course & distance winner Airshow completes my shortlist having been in the frame in five of his last six and he's one of the more likely front runners from my shortlist...

...and whilst he's be an unlikely winner off his current mark, he's consistent and could well make the frame again at a big price, but I'd expect him to play second fiddle to the equally consistent Ultramarine and Arctic Dawn, so lets take those three from this one.

6.30 Chelmsford, a 11-runner, Class 6, 2yo nursery over 1m...

Respiro Solitario improved dramatically from his nursery debut to his second attempt and further progression puts him in the mix in a poor-looking contest. Manara hasn't shown a great deal in her qualifying runs, but they were all at a higher grade and only over 6f, so she could be better than she appears so far.

Flaine won at Southwell last time out, setting the tempo and staying on, so she's a real danger here, despite a 6lb penalty for that win 10 days ago, whilst Cassandraalexandra is the only other previous winner in the race having showed enough pace to win over 6f at Brighton two months ago and she's got the talented Kaiya Fraser in the saddle today. Pace scores from this field's last outing are as follows...

...and based on the limited form and pace datas we have, I'm inclined to take the two runners with a win under their belts ie (6) Flaine & (7) Cassandraalexandra, whilst also taking a chance on further improvement from (1) Respiro Solitario

7.00 Chelmsford, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...

Kessaar Power, Dashing Donkey and Meng Tian were all runners-up last time out with Kessaar Power winning three races ago beating Meng Tian by 2.5 lengths. United Force won his penultimate outing and Dashing Donkey's last six read 114732. Low draws do well here, which is good for the likes of Heeratthetrack, This Time Maybe, Dashing Donkey and United Force in stalls 1 to 4...

...whilst the pace profiles of Elterwater, Kessaar Power and Dashing Donkey seem ideal for the task ahead...

...the runners without swathes of red on Instant Expert are...

...and if we use these six runners to refer back to the pace draw heat map...

...it has to be (3) Kessaar Power & (4) Dashing Donkey here with one other, who I think might just be (6) Meng Tian, who is decent nick and has made the frame in four of his last five over course and distance including finishing as runner-up 2.5 lengths behind Kessaar Power almost three weeks ago, but he's 5lbs better off here which could give him a great chance of being in the mix yet again.

7.30 Chelmsford, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

Flying Fletcher is two from three, having landed a pair of 6f handicaps at Newcastle by 3.5 lengths and 2.5 lengths more than ten months apart, winning pulling away nine days ago, so if he handles the Poly as well as he does the tapeta, he's got a great chance. Justcallmepete won three starts ago, as did Daytona Lady, who has two wins and two runner-up finishes from her last six outings.

Happy Tears has won and placed third in her last two and her last seven read 3325513, so she's pretty consistent and did win over course and distance at the end of August and my form shortlist is completed by Fantasy Master who drops in class after winning at Nottingham last time out and he has two wins and three places from his last nine and it will be interesting to see if he can transfer his good recent form over to the A/W where his record reads 0877, albeit spread over four years!

There's no great pace in the race..

..so we could get a falsely run race which would suit those with the best records under these conditions and if we look at both the win and the place elements of Instant Expert, this is the entire sum of the positive 'green blocks'...

...so I'm on (1) Flying Fletcher, (2) Justcallmepete & (6) Happy Tears for the finale.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Antalya, (9) Magic Glow & (10) Mrs Dowley

Leg 2: (1) Needlepoint, (2) Space Trooper & (6) Anamika

Leg 3: (6) Ultramarine, (8) Arctic Dawn & (10) Airshow at the expense of Riot.

Leg 4: (1) Respiro Solitario, (6) Flaine & (7) Cassandraalexandra

Leg 5: (3) Kessaar Power, (4) Dashing Donkey & (6) Meng Tian

Leg 6: (1) Flying Fletcher, (2) Justcallmepete & (6) Happy Tears

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

Please Note The bad news is that I'm away in Europe on business (I run a travel agency aside from my Geegeez duties) from 4am Friday until late Wednesday so my next column will be in a week's time on the 21st November. The good news for you guys is that Matt will be providing you with his Tix Picks in my absence.

Tix Picks, Wednesday 13/11/24

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Wednesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Ayr, Bangor, Lingfield & Southwell.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

Bangor looks too 'novice-y' for my liking and there are only 37 runners at Ayr in total, so we'll stick to the A/W again today and as we did Southwell yesterday, let's head for Lingfield where the polytrack is said to be standard as usual for...

11.35 Lingfield, an 11-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...

Obsidian Knight, Masqool and Forge Valley Lad have all won over course and distance and Obsidian Knight has a 56% (9 from 16) place strike rate on the A/W. Achillea won two starts ago and Star Pupil won three races back, as did Crafter, whilst bottom weight Moon Over The Sea has made the frame in 7 of his 10 starts this year, including two wins.

Three of the runners that caught my eye from a place perspective are on their last winning mark or lower today...

Sadly there's no real pace in the race today...

...so I'll rely on Instant Expert more here and take C&D winners (1) Obsidian Knight and (6) Masqool plus (11) Moon Over The Sea, who should offer more value than Achillea in the market.

12.05 Lingfield, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f...

Turner Girl has been in the frame in 3 of her last 5 and has a 50% career place strike rate on both the Flat (9/18) and the A/W (7/14) and was a decent third of sixteen last time out. Sun Dancer has won three of her last five but was last home of seven over course and distance 11 days ago and has been eased a pound by the assessor.

This pair along with Glimmer of Light also seem the more likely from a pace perspective...

...and also from an Instant Expert angle...

(1) Turner Girl is the one I'd want to be with and with concerns over Sun Dancer's poor run over C&D off just 1lb higher last time out, I'll take the unexposed (3) Glimmer of Light as my alternate.

12.35 Lingfield, a 12-runner, Class 5, 2yo novice stakes over 1m...

No past winners here and three of the twelve are on debut. Of those with a run, (1) Al Shababi was a runner-up on debut four weeks ago less than a length behind a runner rated 95 who had already won at Class 2 and (2) Best Rate was third a week earlier. (7) Present Times has the benefit of two runs under his belt and has been both second and third so far and drops in class here.

Venezuelan drops three classes here and might be popular with his yard going so well at the moment, but he blew the start on debut and the three named above make more sense to me at the moment and all three are drawn high, which is often a positive here.

1.05 Lingfield, an 11-runner, Class 5, 2yo novice stakes over 1m...

The second division of the above race looks weaker and trickier to call with five of the ten runners making their racecourse bows. All five with a previous run drops in class and it's the first two on the card that make most appeal.

(1) Cape Breton is a son of Frankel, cost 450,000gns as a yearling and is a half-brother to To Catch A Thief who is a 3-time winner between 1m1½f and 1m3½f including a Class 2 handicap last time out. (2) Charming Life was 4th of 15 on debut at the start of the month and showed some early promise and a willingness to get on with things and he's a €400,000 yearling, Dubawi gelding and half brother to Opera Mundi who won a 7f Listed race in France as a 2yo this time last year.

A debutant often makes the frame in this level of race and to be fair it wouldn't take much and despite the fact that he's going to be a huge price, I quite like the look of (4) Gemmari. He's by Expert Eye and a half-brother to a few winners including Gemina who won over 7f as a 2yo, Gibeon a winner at both 7f and 1m2f and also Gendarme who won at 1m2f to 1m4f on the flat and over hurdles at 2m. All came out of the dam Gravitation who won a Group 3 race over 1m6f.

1.37 Lingfield, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Final Voyage is sent over from Ireland for this one having a win and two places from his last five starts and was third over 6f at Dundalk last time out. Dual 7f winner Bobby Bennu is still relatively unexposed after just six races and was a runner-up last time out, a little unlucky to run into a horse winning for the third time in four starts.

Blue Prince has made the frame in five of his last seven and is a bold confident type used to running in bigger fields than this. Local Hero has also won two of his six starts, Cill Mocheallog has a win and two places from four, whilst Lady Dreamer has three wins and a place from her last five.

But my preferences here are (1) Final Voyage, (2) Bobby Bennu & (3) Blue Prince

2.07 Lingfield, a 12-runner, 3yo+ fillies Listed stakes over 1m5f...

The bookies have only got four runners at 8/1 or shorter here and I think they've got it right. (1) Sea Theme (by Sea The Stars) was mid-division in the 14-runner Group 1 Champions Fillies And Mares Stakes at Ascot, has already won two Listed races and her yard (Wiliam Haggas) has won this race in the four of the last seven renewals. (4) Scarlett O'Hara was second to Sea Theme in a Listed race at Clairefontaine back in July. She was beaten by 4.5 lengths that day and might get closer here now 3lbs better off.

(10) Madame Celeste won over a mile at Dundalk on debut almost a year ago and has since been a Group 3 runner-up beaten by a neck at Naas and suffered a similar fate behind Bellezza in the Diamond Stakes at Dundalk over 1m2½f seven weeks ago on her last run. She likes to race prominently and it is hoped that first time blinkers do the trick here. (11) Meribella is also by Sea The Stars and has won at 7f and 1m4f, winning over the longer trip at the Doncaster St leger meeting two months ago on her last run, beating the useful filly Cabrera by a short head.

I agree with the bookies that Scarlett O'Hara is probably the most vulnerable of the four, so she's the one I'll omit as I go with (1) Sea Theme, (10) Madame Celeste & (11) Meribella for the finale.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Obsidian Knight, (6) Masqool & (11) Moon Over The Sea

Leg 2: (1) Turner Girl & (3) Glimmer of Light

Leg 3: (1) Al Shababi, (2) Best Rate & (7) Present Times

Leg 4: (1) Cape Breton, (2) Charming Life & (4) Gemmari

Leg 5: (1) Final Voyage, (2) Bobby Bennu & (3) Blue Prince

Leg 6: (1) Sea Theme, (10) Madame Celeste & (11) Meribella

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Tuesday 12/11/24

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Tuesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Hereford, Huntingdon, Lingfield & Southwell.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And with Southwell having the biggest guaranteed pot, let's head there for the following six races on standard going tapeta...

5.00 Southwell, an 8-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6f...

Blenheim Lad comes here on a hat-trick after back to back wins over course and distance in September/October and although up 6lbs here should be winning again here, especially as there's not much else to write about when it comes to the form of his rivals.

None of the seven made the frame last time out, none have won any of their last seven races, but Alex The Great has finished second and fourth in his last two and Gentle Fire was a runner-up two starts ago and now makes a yard debut for Tony Carroll, who also trains Alex The Great.

The pace/draw heat map looks like this...

...and Instant Expert like this...

...so I'm going with (1) Blenheim Lad, (3) Alex The Great & (8) Gentle Fire

5.30 Southwell, a 12-runner, Class 6, 2yo handicap over 7f...

Rotation won a seller back in July but has struggled since, Seed Investor was 3rd of 11 at Catterick 24 days ago and We've Got This has three top-four finishes from his four starts (2934). Isla Bella makes an A/W debut and although last home of nine at Thirsk most recently, she did win at Brighton in May and was a Class 3 runner-up at York on her subsequent outing.

Zadkiel has been third in each of his last two starts and both Sherlock and Realise The Dream were third last time out too, but bottom weight Whizz By comes here off the back of a fairly comfortable win over course and distance on handicap debut just under three weeks ago and looks the one to beat.

Isla Bella looks like setting the tempo of the race here...

...so although she's going to be a big price, I'm going to add (5) Isla Bella to my ticket builder along with form picks (7) Zadkiel & (12) Whizz By

6.00 Southwell, a 10-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 7f...

Novak comes here off the back of three placed (312) runs in tight finishes and was only beaten by a neck over course and distance last time out, whilst three of his stablemates all won last week. Ideal Guest has two wins and a place from his last five starts and Monopolise looked quite comfortable when winning at Kempton by the thick end of two lengths eight days ago.

Ideal Guest and Monopolise also feature in the front half of the pace averages...

...which also suggests bold efforts from Royal Parade and Mark's Choice, but the former has only made the frame in 2 of 10 A/W starts (0 wins) and whilst the latter made the frame in back to back 7f Tapeta handicaps (1 over C&D) last November, he hasn't raced since finishing 10th of 12 at Newcastle 11 months ago!

So from that pace graphic, I'll discard those two and keep the two form picks along with Novak...

6.30 Southwell, a 10-runner, Class 5, 2yo fillies novice over 6f...

Cressida Wildes has already made the frame in three of her last four starts, only missing out when beaten by less than two lengths in a Listed race at Newbury in August and she has been a Class 2 runner-up and it is hoped that her first-time cheekpieces do the business for her here. Marvelously has steadily improved and was third over course and distance last time out, whilst Nazuki hit the ground running here (also over this trip) when a runner-up on debut almost four weeks ago.

This trio look the pick on form from those who've already had race experience, whilst of the debutants, Nakaaha is the most interesting. She's by Bated Breath and her dam was a winner at both 1m2f and 1m4f. This 2yo cost 80,000 gns as a foal and then 62,000 gns as a yearling and represents a yard in good nick with a healthy record at this venue...

This quartet are my shortlist and the one I'll omit is Marvelously.

7.00 Southwell, a 13-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

Dutch Kingdom has won two of his last three including by 2.5 lengths over this trip at Chelmsford last time out and he'll seek to improve upon an already impressive 38% win and 59% place strike rate on the A/W. Secret Guest now returns to the A/W after a decent Flat campaign (placed in three of his last four) and finished 42621 on the Tapeta last winter. He was badly hampered at York in a big-field handicap last time out, but his prior run when beaten by a neck at Ripon (6f, Class 2) was excellent.

City House has made the frame in two of his last three also and Completely Random has made the frame (1 win) on both Tapeta outings to date and has made the frame in three of his last five runs, whilst Cajetan completes my 'form shortlist', having won two of his five starts this year. Those two wins are his entire A/W career and both came over 6f on tapeta, albeit at Newcastle rather than here.

There's not much in the way of pace here and Dutch Kingdom might be afforded an easy lead...

and in a tricky contest, he's on my ticket builder along with A/W 100%-er Cajetan and Completely Random who also seems to like the Tapeta.

7.30 Southwell, a 12-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...

Lion Of War was third last time out and has a win and two places from his last five, Cruyff Turn won three starts ago whilst Chalk Mountain has 5 wins, 4 seconds and a third from his last ten A/W handicaps (1st and 2nd in two runs here, both over 7f). Shaw Park was a runner-up here over 7f last time out, but the one to beat looks like being Qazaq who brings a 2 from 2 record to the table after a 7f win at Chelmsford last December and a subsequent 7f win by 6 lengths at Kempton three weeks ago, despite not having raced for ten months! He was impressive that day and if he comes on for the run, the others might need binoculars to watch him finish.

A high draw is preferable here...

...as is early pace...

...so we're definitely having Qazaq!

Chalk Mountain does seem the most likely challenger based on form, draw, pace and consistency...

Lion Of War probably edges third pick for me. he has just two A/W runs under his belt to date and was only two necks away from winning at Kempton last time out finishing third in a tight 14-runner handicap with the runner-up going on to finish second again next time out over this course and distance despite stepping up in class . His other A/W run was on the tapeta at Newcastle back in June '22 and he landed a 7f Novice race by some ten lengths eased down.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Blenheim Lad, (3) Alex The Great & (8) Gentle Fire

Leg 2: (5) Isla Bella, (7) Zadkiel & (12) Whizz By

Leg 3: (2) Novak, (3) Ideal Guest & (4) Monopolise

Leg 4: (3) Cressida Wildes, (6) Nakaaha & (7) Nazuki

Leg 5: (1) Dutch Kingdom, (6) Completely Random & (8) Cajetan

Leg 6: (1) Lion Of War, (6) Qazaq & (8) Chalk Mountain

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Tricky day today, but good luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Monday 11/11/24

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Monday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Carlisle, Kempton, Newcastle & Wolverhampton

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And with Carlisle having the biggest guaranteed pot, let's head there for the following six races on good ground...

12.00 Carlisle, a 3-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over 2m4f...

Only 3 run here and Pic Roc makes a chase debut after finishing 2122 over hurdles. The last two runner-up finished were in 17-runner Class 1 & 2 handicaps, whilst he was a Class 2 winner at Ascot in February.

Asta La Pasta was a decent third of eight on chase debut at Ffos Las eighteen months ago despite not having raced for seven months, so he should strip fitter for the run and also benefit from the chasing experience.

Kilta actually won a 3-runner, Class 3 handicap on chase debut back in May, but was last of five beaten by 28 lengths next time out and went down by a similar margin in his last effort.

I don't want to crash out on race 1, so I'll definitely take two out of three here and Kilta looks weakest and is there omitted in favour of (1) Pic Roc & (2) Asta La Pasta.

12.30 Carlisle, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ maiden hurdle over 2m1½f...

It's a maiden hurdle, but No Questions Asked has won under Rules already, when landing a bumper at Market Rasen on debut back in February and was beaten by less than six lengths on his only other outing when a very commendable 6th of 18 in a Grade 2 bumper at Aintree. Anything like that kind of run should be enough here providing he can jump, of course. That said, he did win his sole PTP contest.

Donald McCain also sends a pair of PTP winners here in the shape of top weight Barrabooka and also Cahier's Den and based on jockey bookings, the former looks the yard's #1 in this one. Willie Shake Hands was pulled up on hurdles debut at Sedgefield three weeks ago coming back from more than six months off, but had shown promise when third in a Naas bumper back in April.

Elsewhere, bottom weight Beorma is an interesting sort making a yard debut for the Skeltons after three fairly modest runs in bumpers for Tom Gallagher. I suspect they'll make something out of hi, but that might take some time.

On paper, (7) No Questions Asked should be winning this with plenty in hand and I'd expect the McCain stablemates (1) Barrabooka and (3) Cahier's Den to put up the most resistance.

1.00 Carlisle, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ maiden hurdle over 2m1½f...

Division two of the above maiden hurdle also features a pair of Donald McCain racecourse debutants coming off the back of a decent PTP run. Jockey bookings suggest Idaho Valley is the pick of the two and he won at Tallow back in February, whilst stablemate Bo Cruz was a runner-up at Borris House.

Idaho Valley is a half brother to Toss Again, a four-time winner over 2m6f to 2m7f, so he might well need further in time. Of those with track experience, Jet To Vegas was a runner-up beaten by just a length and a quarter at Carlisle last month, whilst We're Red And Blue won a bumper on debut at Hereford in February and was a runner-up at Uttoxeter on his second start over hurdles just over three weeks ago, beaten by just a length and a half.

As with the previous race, I'm going with both of the McCain debutants ie (2) Bo Cruz and (6) Idaho Valley along with the in-form (9) We're Red And Blue, who is backed up by these stats...

1.30 Carlisle, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m4f...

Joie More was a runner-up in an 8-runner hurdle at Kelso back in March and made a commendable seasonal reappearance 228 days later when beaten by 7.5 lengths here over course and distance on handicap debut last month and he should come on for the run having been eased 2lbs in the ratings. She's Not Joeking makes a handicap debut after finishes of 213 over hurdles and she did win on her bumper debut. She was third of fourteen at Hexham last time out, despite having not raced for almost six months, so my only concern for her here is that all her form is on ground softer than this.

Horsesomeharry showed little in his three outings (P66) in the spring, but is expected to appreciate the extra half mile here down in class, in first-time cheekpieces and on handicap debut for a yard with a good record with both handicap debutants and those coming back from a break....

Ruler Legend has already won a handicap hurdle, scoring at Huntingdon back in March and has prepared for this race by running in a heavy ground, Class 3, flat handicap at Newbury over 1m4f seventeen days ago. he overcame a six-month break to finish fourth of the eleven runners and that run should help him here for an in-form yard...

My place shortlist is completed by Get A Superstar, who always seems to be on the premises even if he has only won once to date. His bumper form read 421 and despite being pulled up on his hurdles debut back in January he has finished 434444 since, so you'd expect him to be knocking on the door again here.

I can make a case for all of the above, but I'm more drawn to (5) She's Not Joeking, (8) Ruler Legend & (9) Get A Superstar today. The latter might well finish fourth yet again opening the door for Horsesomeharry, but I don't want to take four runners from this one.

2.00 Carlisle, a 4-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ graduation chase over 2m...

I didn't want to take four runners from the above race, because I feel like I need to take three from four here to be safe. I could cut to the chase (sorry!) and just say that Nells Son is going to be my odd one out, despite having won two of his last six over fences, but I feel the other trio have more to offer today.

Unexpected Party won the Grand Annual Chase at the Cheltenham festival this year and although last home of five last time out, that race was (a) the Grade 2 Old Roan Chase at Aintree last month, (b) over a half mile further than today and 9c) off the back of a 199-day absence.

Path D'oroux won on his seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham less than three weeks ago in a novice contest and finished last season with results reading 2335 in Listed/Class 1 handicap chases, so he's definitely got ability.

Paul Nicholls' Kalif du Berlais becomes the latest in a long line of Berlais' to tackle fences. This one comes here after just three efforts over hurdles that saw him win a Class 2 on debut at Kempton back in January followed by a Grade 2 success in the Adonis over the same track/trip six weeks later before closing his debut season seven months ago by finishing third in an Aintree Grade 1 contest. His fitness/jumping will be taken on trust, but he's from a good yard and the Berlais name carries weight!

2.30 Carlisle, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m1½f...

Knowmorediamonds was a course and distance runner-up beaten by just a neck on handicap debut 25 days ago and should be involved again despite a 4lbs rise. Strictly Tango's three qualifying runs have seen him finish 331 over hurdles, scoring over 2m1f at Sedgefield just over a month ago.

Diamond Koda is another of those runners who always seems to be on the premises. He has raced three times over hurdles and in three bumpers so far finishing as runner-up five times in total, having unseated at the first two starts ago. He hasn't raced for seven months, but the horse that beat him that day has won again since and a mark of 106 (less a 5lb jockey claim) might not be too onerous on handicap debut.

Dino Baggio won two of four bumpers and raced in a Listed bumper at 2023's Cheltenham January meeting and at Grade 2 at that year's Aintree Festival although well beaten in both. His two bumper wins suggested he'd go well over hurdles, but was pulled up on his first attempt just over a ear ago and could only manage 10th of 14 in January before being sent back to the sheds. He reappeared here at Carlisle last month, though with his best hurdles effort to date, defying a nine month absence to finish fourth of ten and his mark of 96 could also be low.

These are the four that interest me the most and although I've gone with a few Donald McCain horses earlier in the card, it's his Dino Baggio that just fails to make the cut here...

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Pic Roc & (2) Asta La Pasta

Leg 2: (1) Barrabooka, (3) Cahier's Den & (7) No Questions Asked

Leg 3: (2) Bo Cruz, (6) Idaho Valley & (9) We're Red And Blue

Leg 4: (5) She's Not Joeking, (8) Ruler Legend & (9) Get A Superstar

Leg 5: (2) Unexpected Party, (3) Path D'oroux & (4) Kalif du Berlais

Leg 6: (1) Knowmorediamonds, (2) Strictly Tango & (4) Diamond Koda

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

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