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Two years ago the Saudi Cup was staged for the first time with a total prize fund of $20 million ($10 million to the winner) and therefore the richest single horse race anywhere in the world. There was little surprise when US-trained horses came out on top in the nine-furlong event on the dirt course close to Riyadh.
The winner that day was Maximum Security, the horse that had also finished first past the post in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. Immediately after the Derby, Maximum Security was disqualified for causing interference on the final bend and was relegated to 17th of the 19 runners under the stringent US interference rules.
The horse’s owners, which include the Coolmore partners, must have been relieved that the Saudi Cup was at least a financial consolation for losing the Derby. Sensationally, though, within a few days of that inaugural running, news came that the colt’s trainer Jason Servis had been arrested. He is named as one of 27 individuals implicated in a US-wide horse doping conspiracy. Their inevitably complex trial is expected to begin next year.
The first actual recipient of the Saudi cash therefore – before Newcastle United and the golfers wanting to play in the Kingdom-inspired planned breakaway from the PGA tour – was Prince Abdul Rahman Abdullah Faisal. The Prince, usually referred to as Prince Faisal in the UK, with his Gosden-trained Mishriff, won the race last year. He, of course, is from the Saudi Royal family.
His horse was back again for the Cup’s third running on Saturday, but he finished last, virtually pulled up by David Egan. The home team this time enjoyed both sides of the triumph, not just a Saudi-owned (again a Prince from the ruling family) but also by dint of its Saudi trainer.
That horse was Emblem Road, a US-bred son of Quality Road, sourced as a two-year-old for around $80,000 at Ocala in Florida, and he came into Saturday’s race with six wins in eight starts, yet started 80-1 (or 50-1, depending on which report you believe).
The price was understandable as he faced the reigning Kentucky Derby winner Mandaloun, also unbeaten in three runs since that day before Saturday, as well as well-touted fellow Americans Country Grammer and Midnight Bourbon.
The former of that pair is trained by Bob Baffert, another high-profile US trainer several of whose best horses have been found to have had illegal substances in their post-race samples and who is soon to face an inquiry into one of those instances. Interestingly, it was to Baffert that Maximum Security was switched after the Jason Servis licence was suspended two years ago.
Hopes for Emblem Road were drastically reduced when the colt started very slowly but his 53-year-old rider Wigberto Ramos did not panic. A Panamanian who has been riding in Saudi Arabia for the past 24 years, “Wiggy” knows the track as well as any jockey and he steadily made up his ground.
There was still more to be retrieved as Country Grammer set off for home, offering Baffert high hopes of his cut of the $10 million; but Emblem Road, buoyed by his own extensive experience of his home track, would not be denied and got up close home to win by half a length.
The victory was a massive triumph for his local trainer Mitab Almulawah and it must be very possible that his smart and tough four-year-old might be deployed to Meydan to challenge for the Dubai World Cup, victory in which would propel him even higher up the world top earnings table.
I remember when I first started working back in 1990 with the late Prince Ahmed Salman and his Thoroughbred Corporation team which won so many major races around the world, asking whether the family was on a par with the Maktoum family.
The answer came from my pal Jack Rusbridge, the late Prince’s main security advisor, who replied: “No contest. The Saudis’ wealth is a bottomless pit!” Phil Mickelson and Eddie Howe are well aware of that, never mind Baffert who for all the disappointment of his near miss in the big race, collected his share of around $3.5 million for Country Grammer’s second and the victory of his 7-4 favourite Pinehurst in the Saudi Derby earlier on the card.
The rivalry between Dubai and Riyadh is such that the failure of any of the Godolphin ten to win a race would have been regarded as a triumph on the ground for the home team. Rather than any of the more anticipated centres of success, the remaining four races open to the invaders all went to that upwardly-mobile source of big-race excellence that is Japan.
Two wins on the second day of the Breeders’ Cup with Marche Lorraine – sixth to Emblem Road on Saturday – and Loves Only You, who went on to win the Longines Hong Kong Cup in December, jolted many of us to their ever-expanding horizons.
But this was something on an altogether different scale. All four were ridden by Christophe Lemaire who, in the manner of all true international jockeys of the highest order, instantly knew how to handle this track. Three turf races opened the feast, Lemaire making all in two with a come from behind run in between. Then later, in the Turf sprint, he was back in making-all vein, completing an astonishing four-timer for this powerful racing nation.
**
There was some decent jump racing back home at the weekend and it was good to see Milton Harris winning the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton with the now unbeaten-in-five over timber, Knight Salute, who needed to overcome a 5lb penalty for his earlier two Graded wins.
Expensive recruits from the flat were easily brushed aside and while it might have been tight if the Gary Moore-trained Teddy Blue had jumped the last two flights better, Knight Salute looks the main domestic hope for the Triumph Hurdle against the Mullins/Elliott platoon.
Staying chases were the other prime targets for owners and trainers, and both Newcastle’s Eider Chase and then Kempton’s Coral Handicap Chase were mopped up by the mop-haired (although he has trimmed it a shade!) Christian Williams.
Always a shrewdie in his riding days as a generally second-string jump jockey, he seems even more astute as a trainer. He says the plans for the multiple entries for these two valuable prizes were fixed months ago and they were rewarded when Win My Wings justified heavy support down to 11-2 favouritism at Newcastle. Cap Du Nord, 15 minutes later, with Williams – anxiously on course in the paddock at Sunbury - led home a stable one-two completed by Kitty’s Light.
The three Williams contributors collected almost £160,000. On what was the worst performance of his life Mandaloun “earned” £222,222 for finishing ninth in the world’s richest race.
For anyone waiting for news of Glen Again who now has been taken out twice so far when due to make his hurdles debut, I can tell you he has two possible entries later this week. Ian Williams has to choose between Ludlow on Thursday and Newbury the following day. At least the ground will not be heavy wherever he goes.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/EmblemRoad_SaudiCup2022.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2022-02-28 03:11:312022-02-27 21:15:22Monday Musings: The home defence prevails in Saudi
After a week off recharging the old battery pack, Gold Nuggets is back with a slightly longer than usual edition. This week, I look at how to frame a jackpot permutation using the Gold racecards, Fast Finishers, Query Tool, Draw Analyser and the multi-race ticket builder. See what you think...
In my first article I gave readers an introduction to racing systems, writes Dave Renham. In this follow up I am going to look at a slightly different way of using systems, namely for shortlisting. and we'll use the Cheltenham Festival as an example.
Most people prefer the clear cut system method: a set of rules from which, when a horse qualifies, you simply back it; the theory is that this system has proved profitable in the past, and should continue to do so in the future.
But systematic approaches can also be used in a broader sense, for instance to create shortlists for specific races. Let’s review how that could work.
Creating a Cheltenham Festival system
With the Cheltenham Festival around the corner I thought I'd offer a shortlisting system idea that gives us a chance to make a profit at the meeting. This system will produce a shortlist of runners that is about as easy as you could get. The system rules are these:
Non-handicap races at the Cheltenham Festival
Top four in the betting
That’s it. The focus is just on the top four horses in the betting in these races. You may be thinking how is this system potentially going to make me a profit? Well the strange thing is that if you had bet all runners from the top four of the betting in every non-handicap festival race since 2009 you would have made a blind profit to Betfair SP. If you had placed £10 on every selection you would have made a profit of £661.50; a return of just over 7 pence in the £. The graph below how each year would have panned out from a return on investment perspective:
Nine of the 13 years produced a profit; and losses in the other four years were far from damaging. Strike rates were pretty consistent, varying from 14% in the ‘worst’ performing year to 20% in the best.
One issue with systems that use market factors is that it is not always possible to be 100% sure which horses will finish where in terms of position in the betting market. Of course, the later you place the bet or bets, the easier it is to be confident the horse will end up in the top 'x' of the betting. I appreciate, though, for some people this is not an option; but the good news is this ‘shortlisting system’ would have worked equally well if you had used the top four of the betting forecast in the Racing Post.
Before examining what we can do next with our shortlist of four runners, let me quickly discuss why I think this idea might have worked in the past. The one thing we know about the Cheltenham Festival is that trainers and their horses will be giving 100 per cent. In non-handicap races we are going to get fewer shocks and more races running closer to form. Yes, the races will be competitive, but even so wins for outsiders will be rare. Indeed, horses priced greater than 25/1 have won just 11 times in the 13 years from 1197 runners. Backing all of them would have secured a loss of 20p in the £ to BSP.
In terms of longevity, this top four in the betting idea should not have a shelf-life per se, as the prices of these runners are going to be very similar in years to come. So, as a shortlisting method, focusing on the top four in the betting in these races looks a highly logical starting point.
From here it is a question of personal preference in terms of what to do next and how much time you wish to spend on each race. For those who have no real time to devote to form study there are two possible options. The first option is that you could just back all four runners each time. A second option is to look for one further rule to incorporate into the system. Once found, assuming one can be found, the selection process is short and swift.
Looking for an extra system rule brings into focus the trap of back-fitting so one needs to be careful. I think before testing any further ideas out, we ought to draw up a list of possible rules that make sense. Here are some ideas to that end:
Look for horses that have won that season
Look for horses that were sensibly priced last time out
Look for horses that have not been off the track for too long
Look for horses with sound sire stats
This is not an exhaustive list, but for the purposes of this article it makes sense not to examine too many. Let us consider them one by one.
Horses that won earlier in the season
It makes sense to me to focus on horses that have won at least once earlier in the season. I am someone who generally looks for horses that have won before and at this level I think it is crucial. The problem of course, as you may have guessed, is that it will not trim the shortlist much! For horses to be in the top four of the betting at the Cheltenham festival it is likely that they have shown a decent level of form that year. This extra system rule knocks out just over 100 qualifiers and overall profits improve by £3.56!! This equates to an improvement in terms of returns on investment by around 1p in the £. All in all, not a system rule I would be too fussed to add.
Horses priced 'sensibly' last time out
Looking for horses that were not huge prices last time is something I do if I am focusing my attention on the front end of the betting market in non-handicap races. My reasoning is that horses that were big prices last time out were clearly not fancied. If they ran well and outran their odds I think there is sometimes an overreaction next time and their odds in the current race may end up being shorter than they perhaps should be, thereby offering little or no value.
The difficulty for any system punter once they come up with a rule that involves price in some form or other, is to choose the right price. Not only that, this is where back-fitting can easily raise its head. It is so tempting to look at the stats, see the price bracket that gave the best profit and choose that. But, as we know, this is a doomed approach. We should choose a price that seems to make sense and stick with it, regardless of what the data spits out. In non-handicap races I would rarely back horses priced 12/1 or bigger, so the price limit I would use here is LTO price 11/1 or shorter.
Looking at the results of adding this system rule we get a similar pattern to the basic system:
Overall returns improve a little to 9p in the £, but ultimately only 52 horses were ‘knocked out’ from the original group of just over 900. So again, for me, it would make little sense to use this rule.
Days since last run
When dealing with the fitness of horses, I am always a little sceptical about runners that have been off the track for too long, especially if it is later in the season like the Cheltenham Festival is. Again the problem is choosing the right time frame, and sticking to it. With Cheltenham taking place annually in mid-March I would not choose a specific days since last run figure, but simply use January 1st as the cut off. So what happens if we stick to horses that have run at least once in the calendar year? Here are the stats:
We have trimmed the number of selections a bit more here. This extra rule would mean backing three horses in each race on average. However, the figures have not really improved. A slightly better ROI%, but due to losing 200+ selections actual profits have dropped by around £110 if betting £10 level stakes. Overall this might be an option for some people but, once more, it's not one for me.
Sire Stats
Using a sire rule for a system is a rarity for most, but actually sire stats are quite detached from the usual system rules punters use. They also don’t really clash with other rules/variables, that is there are not normally any 'related contingencies'. For that reason, I often like to investigate sire angles. Moreover, sire data is not as accessible for many punters as the more bog standard racing data.
So what parameters to use for the sire system rule? I will keep it relatively simple by sticking to sires that have had a strike rate of at least 10% in the last year, assuming they provided over 25 winners during that period. I could have chosen a near infinite number of sire stat combinations, but this is relatively simple to check so that helped in making my decision. The results for the top four of the betting combined with this sire rule present quite a rosy picture, at least on the face of it:
We now have just over two bets per race on average and profits have soared. To £10 level stakes you would have been in profit to the tune of £1645.80. This gives returns of nearly 34p in the £. The yearly returns are broken down below:
The pattern remains similar to our original graph but this one is more volatile, as might be expected: 2014, for example, saw a strike rate success of just 5.1% (two winners from 39) which is the reason for the low ROI% figure for that year, whereas 2015 saw a strike rate of 34.5% (10 winners from 29). The more you drill down into systems the more likely they are to show volatility. It is down to personal preference whether that is tolerable or not.
The question now is, ‘should we incorporate these additional sire parameters into the original system?’.
Well, there is no easy answer. I must admit I have doubts this adapted system would perform as well over the next 13 Festivals securing profits of over 30p in the £, but I certainly do believe it has a good chance of showing some sort of profit long term.
With systems, racing, and betting, there is no "right way", no single correct answer. However, there are plenty of wrong ways and wrong answers and, as punters, we need to avoid them as often as possible. System based betting continues to divide opinion, but using the sound logic of a basic system as a starting point does make for some solid options.
As mentioned earlier you don’t have to go down the route of additional rules that I have looked at here. Instead, you may simply focus on the quartet that head the betting and treat it as a four runner race, using your usual race reading techniques to land on a selection or selections. This more flexible approach will appeal to some of you, I hope.
Before finishing, I want to remind you of two NH systems I mentioned at the end of my first article.
System 1: Won at Cheltenham LTO
Just one rule. This system had a bumper 2021 making huge BSP profits. Before that, from 2009 to 2020, it made a small BSP profit of £100 to £10 level stakes. However, anything as basic as this which has broken even or better over a long period of time is a really good starting point from which to build.
Cheltenham winners in general are pretty smart which is probably why results have been good over the long term – also these last time out Cheltenham winners go on to win 25% of their next races, which is greater than 4% above the average figure for last day winners.
System 2: Quick returning winners
Won last time out
Last ran 5 days ago or less
Quick returners have been the basis of many systems in the past and this is one that has continued to prove profitable in recent years. Specifically, it has achieved BSP Profits of £924.70 to £10 level stakes since 2009.
Both of these systems, with profit and volume of runners, offer good starting points from which to investigate further. Good luck!
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/MinellaIndo_GoldCup2021.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2022-02-21 14:18:162022-02-22 13:13:44Racing systems: Using systems to create shortlists
The Dubai Carnival 2022 has crept up on me, but I had a quiet day at home on Friday and had a good look as William Buick and Charlie Appleby dominated their home meeting with a hat-trick in the last three of six at Meydan, writes Tony Stafford. They cleaned up with Lazuli, 8-11 in a Group 2 sprint; Manobo, 4-9 in a Group 3 over 14 furlongs; and a “handicap” where Valiant Prince bolted home at 13-8 with stones seemingly to spare in completing the set.
The Racing UK coverage for Dubai has never been over-critical of the hosts but the way Angus McNee and Rishi Persad over-gushed after Manobo’s undoubtedly impressive performance in the 89k to the winner Nad Al Sheba Trophy, at the exclusion of all others in the 15-horse field, was an exercise in stating the obvious.
Here was a horse unbeaten in four runs in Europe, starting when a 5-1 scorer under Adam Kirby at Newbury in May – from Mojo Star whose next outing was when runner-up to Charlie’s Adayar in the Derby. He followed up the next month with Buick in the saddle, emphatically by six lengths at 4-11 at Kempton.
Charlie then gave him a break before moving him up in grade, collecting a Listed race at Saint-Cloud at 7-10 by ten lengths with James Doyle riding in September. Doyle again had the mount, and 7-10 was also the price when he out-pointed fellow Appleby three-year-old Kemari, the Queen’s Vase winner from Royal Ascot, in the Group 2 Prix Chaudenay at Longchamp’s Arc meeting.
Over-qualified to a degree then for a ballast-filled race nominally a notch lower, actually rather more so. Thus it was hardly unexpected when he drew away easily to make it five from five given his rating of 114. The winning margin was almost six lengths. A second Godolphin runner, Global Heat ridden by Frankie Dettori for Saeed Bin Suroor, was third. He was just bettered for second favouritism by the regular Group performer Rodrigo Diaz, trained by David Simcock, who finished a modest sixth.
Totally unnoticed, or if he was, never mentioned in all the time I waited for it, were the identities of the other money-earners. Even after they came back from the domestic action for the next Meydan race, Rishi was revealing: “We’ve been talking about Manobo the whole time!” I’ve no doubt they were.
Anyway I’d like to keep you in suspense for a little while longer. On the day of Manobo’s Newbury debut, a six-year-old gelding fresh from the UAE where he had been trained for all of his 14 career starts, none successful, lined up in one of the handicaps at Newbury with an opening UK rating of 70.
I remember looking on the morning of the race thinking that was stern enough especially when taking it in the context of a £6k (30k AED) sale price out of Doug Watson’s stable more than two years earlier.
The horse was called East Asia, the new trainer Ian Williams and his owner Sayed Hashish, a businessman in Dubai, wanted to give him a chance in the UK. Partnered by Richard Kingscote, the 16-1 chance shot clear two from home in the mile-and-a-half mile handicap and won by almost five lengths.
Stepped up in trip for his next two races at Goodwood, Williams turned to William Buick and, riding him with great confidence, he won twice more, comfortably each time as his turf rating rose.
Buick was not employed in the immediate aftermath with the obvious difficulty of timing the races with his Godolphin commitments and East Asia had a relatively quiet spell. Then, coming to the last rites of the turf season, Buick became available for a race at Nottingham and normal service resumed. All that remained was a tilt at the November Handicap where Buick was otherwise engaged riding a double at the Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar; so Kingscote stepped back in.
This time there was no happy ending: East Asia, held up a long way back, hated the cloying mud of Town Moor and finished just below halfway. That left him with a mark of 90 and anyone who has ever sent a horse out to the Carnival with a rating as low as that will know how difficult it can be to get into a race.
But Sayed Hashish is an optimistic chap and fuelled by the four wins from nine starts his UK trainer had supplied him from the previous non-winner in 14, he decided to take the risk. Balloted out in the early weeks, Williams found the answer with Friday’s Group 3, in which East Asia had the lowest rating of all.
He also gave the same entry to a second stable runner, Enemy, there on his second run since being bought in November in France for €92k out of the stable of Francis Graffard, the Aga Khan’s new principal trainer. Enemy had been running over a mile and a furlong or less in France and started at that trip a week earlier. He finished unplaced, albeit barely five lengths behind Lord Glitters.
Williams told me he thought he would stay and that the much-increased trip would suit but he too was among the lowest-rated in the line-up. The pair, understandably both 66-1 shots, turned for home in the last trio with Enemy right at the back. They both took a rails course coming home and if East Asia had not been slightly blocking his stablemate at a crucial stage, according to Williams: “They might have finished the other way around.”
Anyway East Asia stayed on for second under Richard Mullen, greatly out-running his rating (24lb less than the winner) with Enemy and Andrea Atzeni an eye-catchingly closing fourth. In case you hadn’t noticed, Racing TV – and, don’t worry, I still prefer your coverage to ITV, except of course when they show Ascot or Doncaster on a Saturday – this was a monumental training performance.
Ian tells me he thinks East Asia, who collected almost 30k for those efforts might now be getting an invitation to the Gold Cup on Dubai World Cup Day. No wonder Mr Hashish is telling his friends what to do with their old handicappers. Meanwhile, Enemy’s new owners, Tracey Bell and Caroline Lyons, have the prospect of an exciting season ahead with their five-year-old.
It might seem much longer ago, but it was as recently as the autumn of 2017 that Williams encouraged Dr Marwan Koukash to buy the apparently fully-exposed Magic Circle from Ralph Beckett towards the end of his five-year-old season. Few trainers would expect to induce much improvement from that trainer’s skilled handling but, for 70,000gns, Williams had a project.
First up, six months later, it was the doctor’s Holy Grail, the Chester Cup, and with Fran Berry in the saddle Magic Circle ran out a six-length winner from Hughie Morrison’s Fun Mac. The Group 2 Henry II Stakes at Sandown came next and it was another six-length romp for the six-year-old, this time excellent yardstick Red Verdon took second for Ed Dunlop.
Immediately after (or probably knowing the connections, sometime before) the plan was hatched to go for the Melbourne Cup.
Nine years previously, a much cheaper buy, Munsef, led out unsold at £11k from Dandy Nicholls, was then bought privately as a seven-year-old on May 20th 2009 and, by late summer, within weeks he had won three and finished second twice including in a Swedish Group 3. That resulted in a Melbourne Cup qualifying mark and so, that November as a 50-1 chance, he carried the Koukash silks to a close up 11th of 23.
Contrastingly, for most of the summer of 2018, Magic Circle was the favourite for Australia’s most coveted race, but on the day at Flemington he started a point longer at 6-1 to Aidan O’Brien’s 5-1 market leader Yukatan.
The winner this time was the Appleby-trained Cross Counter, a top-class three-year-old who just held off Hughie ‘s Marmelo, now a stallion, and Charlie Fellowes’ Melbourne Cup regular – until last year – Prince Of Arran. Magic Circle finished in the back third having faded over the last two furlongs, but the dream, as with East Asia for his owner, had been more than fulfilled.
As he returns to his yard near Birmingham, this trainer for all seasons and all types of horses, faces one of his biggest ever challenges. Tomorrow he sends out Glen Again for his hurdles debut at Market Rasen in Raymond Tooth’s colours. I’ll be there, so let’s give it a good show!
Williams had a good second with his promising novice chaser Tide Times at Wincanton on Saturday but the highlight for me was the great attempt of Kim Bailey’s 25-1 shot Two For Gold in the Betfair Ascot Chase. If Joseph O’Brien had forgotten to enter J P McManus’ Fakir d’Oudairies, Two For Gold would have won. Only one Irish runner all day and inevitably the best prize of the afternoon goes west!
Kim will have been more than delighted with second especially as the novice Does He Know had already spread-eagled the opposition in the Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase. Pre-Irish domination, that was the race I always liked to see my three-mile Cheltenham novice chase fancies win, but nowadays pretty much all the contenders lurk over there.
Before you look round, Cheltenham will have come and gone, but one possible entry that I am looking forward to is Poetic Music who might tackle the big Irish boys in the bumper. We know she can fly up the hill so getting a hefty 17lb from the hot Mullins favourite and the rest, anything may be possible for the apple of Sally Randell’s eye!
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/IanWilliams_MagicCircle.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2022-02-21 07:49:502022-02-21 07:49:50Monday Musings: Williams truly a man for all seasons
Yesterday, high up on Haldon Hill overlooking Exeter the mist rolled in as winter rainfall finally reached jumping racecourses after a frustratingly dry New Year, writes Tony Stafford. Shining through the murk as she always does and stealing the show was an old mare, nominally grey but in effect as white as the caps that J P McManus’s first strings sport on the racecourses of the UK and Ireland.
J P was cleaning up this weekend with a treble a day at Naas and Punchestown, but those exploits and the 3,000 and a fair few wins he already owns will hardly matter a jot if the said 10-year-old grand lady, Snow Leopardess to you and me, wins the 2022 Grand National.
Since 1839 when Lottery set the ball rolling in the world’s best jumps race ever challenged for, only 13 mares have won it. In the race’s early days there were loads, ten in the first 50 years. That makes it three – that’s right only three – in the next century and a third! After Frigate (number ten) in 1889, there’s only been Shannon Lass (1902), Sheila’s Cottage in 1948 and Nickel Coin in 1951.
Unless you’re almost as old as me you would not have been around for any of them – unlike me, here for the last two. But I hadn’t yet begun my interest in racing – that came with the following year’s King George VI Chase which we used to watch on my great-uncle’s television when we went to their big house at Christmas – so it starts with the Galloway Braes and Halloween battles between 1952 and 1954.
I suppose you can say I was as much brain-washed to county cricket at the Oval, football at Highbury, and racing everywhere from the early-1950’s to an extent that others might be fed politics of a certain standpoint and other life-defining attitudes.
Seventy years on, those three pastimes, nay obsessions, are intact and if anything reinforced by having had the opportunity to write about them. Thus when a Snow Leopardess comes along I think we should give full credit to the mare herself; the owners who bred her dam to a wonderful stallion, and her trainer Charlie Longsdon, who has guided her to an already exceptional series of achievements. If the final one happens, his role will only then be fully appreciated.
Charlie likes winning first time out with his horses – you only have to look as far back as Saturday at Warwick to see how Gaelic Park: “not really a bumper horse, more a galloper”, as he suggested, bolted up first time.
Two weeks short of six years ago, the daughter of the brilliant French jumps stallion Martaline made a winning debut at Doncaster, seeing off the heavily-backed Nicky Henderson-trained Rather Be. Charlie was Hendo-trained too – he was his former assistant.
There were a couple of highlights in her early days. One fifth place in the Aintree bumper spelt enough for her first season, but then she was shipped out first time next autumn for a valuable Listed bumper at Gowran Park and beat a Gordon Elliott mare and 18 others to pick up a €20k prize.
She was at it again at the end of that season, having in between won one minor hurdle race at Doncaster at 9/2 on. Here again she came home clear of a big field (16 runners this time) to win the EBF Mares’ handicap hurdle final at Newbury that March. The prize? another £22k.
Now, Snow Leopardess likes nothing more than winning first time sent to a new country, so after a six-month break Charlie despatched her to Auteuil for a conditions hurdle for, you guessed it, €21k. She duly beat seven rivals under James Reveley but unfortunately that’s where she sustained the injury that promised to end her career.
Snow Leopardess and her owners the Fox-Pitt family, though, do not believe in standing idle and, while recuperating, the mare was sent to Derby-winning stallion Sir Percy, the product of that union arriving early in 2019.
Amazingly, 26 months on from that ill-fated albeit winning trip to France she was back in action for a truncated twice unplaced campaign. She still the added one victory to her previous five in eight last term and also ran a remarkable race when finishing fourth in the National Hunt Chase, having lost her place when briefly outpaced on the faster than ideal ground. Nothing finished better than her as she chased 2022 Gold Cup candidate Galvin up the hill.
The story has developed apace this winter. After winning a nice handicap chase at Bangor – no she’d been there once before so the new country syndrome was not in operation this time – she then showed the most carefree disdain of the Aintree fences when dominating most of the three and a quarter mile Becher Chase in soft ground ten weeks ago. The Aintree run-in was another matter.
Her stride was understandably shortening in those last demanding yards but the nose by which she bravely held on was never more deserved. Switching back to a conventional three miles yesterday at Exeter for her first try at Listed class over fences might have been a pitfall waiting to happen but where her opposition of experienced and prolific-winning steeplechasers dropped away one by one, she slogged through the mud for a 12-length success.
A deserved increase (“not too high!” says Charlie) in her 145 rating should ensure she gets in the field come April and as Longsdon said afterwards: “We have to hope for a wet spring.”
Her career tally from only 19 starts is a remarkable nine successes at a rate that is very high up among the best products of Martaline. It would be very tidy if she could make it 50% at Aintree.
She jumped some of yesterday’s fences with feet to spare and I remember marvelling at the way she was clearing the fences in the Becher Chase. While not as formidable as in the bad old days, you still have to jump 30 of them and, Tiger Roll apart if he shows this time, there won’t be a horse better equipped to handle them, or the stamina test needed if it does turn soft.
As I said earlier, only three mares during the last 132 years have won the Grand National. Equally amazingly in its entire history only three grey horses have ever won it, The Lamb, twice in 1868 and 1871; Nicolaus Silver (1961) which my dad told me he’d backed after I got home from playing in the London Grammar Schools six-a side football championships at Chiswick that morning, and Neptune Collonges in 2012.
Snow Leopardess is already guaranteed one distinction if she does succeed. She’ll be the first grey mare to win it. Probably the early winning mares, namely Charity (1841), Miss Mowbray (1852), Anatis (1860), Jealousy (1861), Emblem (1863) or Emblematic the following year would have had other duties to perform.
Assuredly they would have been worked on farms, maybe pulled the milkman’s float or the brewer’s dray and then needed to be walked however many miles from their home base to Liverpool for their big race day. It could well be the case that one or more of them might have had a foal, but we can say for sure that Snow Leopardess would be doubly unique – the first grey mare to win the race and the first to add having a foal to that singular distinction.
As the enormity of the potential situation gathers momentum, rather in the manner of Andrew Gemmell three years ago when Paisley Park won his Stayers’ Hurdle, or through Rachael Blackmore’s domination of Cheltenham last year, you can expect a media barrage. Charlie, I hope you are ready for it.
Dermot Weld duly won with his Cheltenham possible Falcon Eight in his novice test at Thurles on Thursday. Having looked to have a lot to do half a mile from home, magically he had completely eroded the gap from the leaders in a trice. You were allowed to see just a glimpse of the class he showed in winning the Chester Cup off 104 last May and a little brushing up of the jumping technique could produce another giant step forward.
My friends who have the 33/1 run guaranteed for the Albert Bartlett on the Friday will be hoping for dry weather. The beauty is, having backed him for Thurles, they know canny Dermot will not let him run if it turns soft at Prestbury Park so they are in a win/win situation. Especially if he win wins!
Focus this week is on my long-term boss Raymond Tooth’s return to ownership with the Ian Williams-trained Glen Again who makes his hurdles debut at Fontwell on Thursday. If he runs as fast and jumps as beautifully as he looks – which the trainer suggests he might – Ray could have some fun for the rest of this season and for a few more. Fingers crossed, as they say!
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/SnowLeopardess_Exeter2022.jpg320830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2022-02-14 08:25:222022-02-14 08:34:16Monday Musings: Snow’s Got a White National Chance
A couple of weeks ago I invited some feedback specifically on the editorial content side of what we do here at geegeez.co.uk. It's important for me, for us, to be clear that we're providing information that is of interest to you. After all, both your time and our financial resources are limited; so it makes sense to optimise each. That's why when you speak, we listen. Here's what you said in the survey...
Question 1: On a scale of 1 (not for me) to 7 (YESYES!) how interested are you in reading about...
While the focus is mainly on the 7's - you really want more - it is important to consider aggregates of 5's and 6's, too. Those "nearly 7's" imply a yes and, taking 5-6-7 as a whole, it is very clear where your democratic priorities lie.
You said you want more on trainer angles, draw/run style, system building, and general form reading.
It is hard to understate the type of racing betting audience this marks you out as: you are, fundamentally, a different breed from the average viewer of RacingPost.com, AtTheRaces.com and so on; and a very different animal to those casuals who think SportingLife.com will sustain and nourish them. You are a smarter, and more inquisitive, breed; and you are much smaller in number.
The flip side of this question reveals that ante post betting is of limited interest to many, as is pedigree chat and, to a lesser degree, sectional timing. On that basis, we've dropped the ante post pieces, and will not go too frequently to either the pedigree or sectional wells (though I will continue to pen occasional pieces on the latter, as I believe that one's relative novelty in UK means it has yet to see its demand rise - but it will, in my view).
Question 2: Which of those subjects are you MOST interested in?
Again, you have provided a very clear steer for us to work from. For this question, respondents could select only one of eight options. Almost a third of you chose general form reading, and over a quarter chose system building. Another quarter shared your votes between trainer angles and draw/run style content, meaning almost five-sixths of the love was for just a half of the options. We'll be bring you plenty more from those corners of the content globe.
Question 3 was the inverse of Q2, and asked which subject you were least interested in. You can work that out from the above and it need not clutter this shortish piece.
Question 4: How often do you read...
I found these responses particularly interesting as a barometer of what we're doing right and not quite so well.
On the plus side, it's brilliant that so many of you engage with our daily bulletin emails: they have a chunk of info in them, including some awesome stuff from the archives (all of which is hardy perennial and as useful now as it was when penned, so maybe hardly re-pennable... there's a pun in there somewhere!). They also link to the relevant course guides and free races / features of the day.
And those bulletin emails link to daily news articles which we syndicate from the Press Association. We do that to provide on these 'ere pages as much of the more transient intel as you're keen to absorb; your feedback suggests that this content is only an occasional consumption for many/most. Fair enough, and noted: it's there for those who want it.
I was (pleasantly) surprised to see how popular the trends articles continue to be, and not surprised that Racing Insights remains a staple of many visitors' daily habit. The pivot away from Stat of the Day was not without turbulence back yon, but I hope longer-term readers can see the slightly different value provided by its replacement.
Question 5: What could we do MORE of?
A free text question allowing you to say what you want, what you really, really want... 219 replies, and I think word clouds express the general sentiment best in such cases. So here's one of those.
The gist is more of what we're currently doing, but also some additional trends output (I'll have a think about this because I feel there's a "right way and a wrong way" to present historical profiles), system content, ratings components and form guides.
The ratings part is a challenge, mainly because I believe such number sets require a HUGE amount of work and rework: it would probably take a year or two full-time to create something and even then it might only be 'quite good'.
Question 6: What could we do LESS of?
177 replies this time, and we'll word cloud it again:
Generally speaking, this was a 'null response', with lots of 'nothing', 'all fine as it is' type of replies; but quite a few suggested a lack of interest in ante-post content and, to a lesser degree, sectional articles. Of course, I don't expect anybody to read everything on geegeez, so please do feel free to skip certain pieces... as I'm sure you do!
Question 7: If you were the boss, which one thing would you change? It might be adding something, removing something, changing the way we do something. It's your call!
There were 208 replies here, and I thought a lot of them were excellent! So, rather than word cloud them, I've actually reproduced them 'as is' below. You're welcome to ignore or to read through at your leisure. And, of course, if you've any burning suggestions as "boss of geegeez for a week" - or you just want to second or third one of the ideas below - please do leave a comment! 👇
[scroll-box]More short, sharp webinars explaining certain aspects of the site
Adding % rivals beaten
Perhaps once a month one of the contributors going through a Race Card and selecting their picks
More actual race reviews rather than ‘angles and systems
lots more choice in query tool, for me its the single most important tool in Geegeez,
More system n report building functions using multiple choice of report types expand query tool function.
Best value bet of the day
Trainer analysis Green in form red cold in racecards
Add saddle cloth numbers to the Full Form and Profile pages
Adding a 6 month tab to IE and maybe taking out field size and adding something more trainer related to that race in the end column
Making Form Listings clearer and more user friendly. I find myself using Racing Post Form as it is what I am used to and though it has less information / parameters it is an "easy" read.
Other than lowering the price (JOKE - you offer great value) it’s hard to think of anything. Maybe an online community for like minded folk as mentioned above would be good. I’d also make px form visible when you click into a horse from the race card!
find a lay angle
See above
I would stop promoting other products, as it eats into the integrity of Geegeez.
NOTHING SPRINGS TO MIND
Just to repeat what I have already said, I am new to this but thoroughly enjoying the journey. I have a lot to learn and all articles are welcome. Great work!
More pedigree back ground
Short list of trends qualifiers.
Emphasis on potential of horse rather than just form - most horses ‘haven’t done it yet’ so how can we get better at spotting those well handicapped (HotForm is ace one this)
Learning is a good your ideas and my problem solving works well and having a tracker is very helpful best information that I keep my information when my memory of what I’ve backed I’m 58 but wished I had this earlier in my life thanks Matt and team
The biggest thing I'd love to see is advanced race pace mapping insight. I love your feature to help inform me on pace but I'd love to see it go further e.g. horse strike rates in slowly or fast run races, toggle fast early pace vs slow early pace to see if average position of horse changes , win and place stats to change based on predicted fast even or slow early pace etc. I think you get the idea
I would like to see the option to change the race cards between "standard" and "at a glance" on gold as in the RP. It's easier to look at large fields with my old eyes lol.
Hi, I sent an email a few months ago regarding the follwing but never received a reply. I had an idea to show hot/cold trainer in a horses form. To show if the trainer was in good or bad form at the time of that run. I think this could throw up an interesting angle when a horse has gone well despite the stable being out of form then returns with the stable going well.
AS ABOVE
Ability to place a bet through the Geegeez website via a betting partner
Nothing in particular comes to mind
THE ADDITION OF INTERNATIONAL GROUP RACES.
Create a "Geegeez rating" for each horse (where possible), by pulling together all the RPR/Topspeed/PeterMay ratings, add in instant expert scores, profiler scores, trainer / jockey form, Draw PRB, etc
Simplify the way for MOST of us to arrive at the possible winner .
More filters on the QT and make it more user friendly especially for mobile (if possible!)
I have built my own dashboard for race analysis so really admire your work, I would make more use of hovering over something making a tile pop up, as clicking through when information is dense and bottomless is just not as nice a UX in my opinion. But I like the approach and should make myself more familiar with your offerings
Make the sorting of lists 'nested' as with Xcel. So things sorting equal are in the order of the previous sort
I'd just like the five-days from Ireland on the tracker for planning purposes and Ireland is my focus over Britain, but obviously, you're British-based. If in time, you could add the point-to-point form from whatever database you use and French form as well, that would be brilliant. It all helps to pain the picture! Great work, thank you.
provide exchange information and recognise no sensible bettor will go near a bookie
Return of a tipster, does not have to be every day.
See 'What could we do more of?"
I would like to see a 'FORM' selection (1-2-3) made by GeeGeeze for each race
highlight when you think short-priced favourites are poor value
Adding HiRPR (like HiOR) and customisable filters to Full Form tab in order to cover more than one going type/distance etc. Possibly, ability to ‘pair’ columns in Instant Expert to only show data for races where 2/3 columns apply, such as course and distance.
With the multitude of data and stats based information, reports and form I believe the bet finder needs and should have past data results of the combinations selected to give a better feel for whether the parameters and combinations selected have any substance in a similar way to other reports and inline drop downs show runs/wins/P&L/prb etc.
Make sure punters could see tips give trials before vip if doing vip tips help people learn betting
Your doing great
Add significant function to Query Tool
Very comprehensive and interesting site. Keep it going. My game plan is to cover monthly costs in year one and then looking for profit
Bring back Stat Of The Day
A one stop shop for all the pace/draw biases, so a one pager of the tracks where front runners do well. Obviously I understand though that the data and biases may change as time goes on.
In big races, combine trends with horse & trainer form, draw where relevant - then come up with a short list of 'probables' - probably in an easy-to-read matrix format
Why would you want to change something which already works
see above
do h/caps only
For national hunt racing trainer reports could have hurdles or chase as well as the all and handicap tabs as a filter
As I said above what i like is if you really have a strong fancy for other wise I don't like to have a bet if it doesn't run as you thought that's horse racing I don't like second guessing
Providing Dobbing stats relevant to today's race conditions.
Not sure glad I'm not the boss 🤣
Make IE more flexible for the user
Add jockey and trainer sole representative at the meeting.
improve query tool..needs a lot to get up to others
Something similar to Racing Posts signposts section, all the relevant info condensed
Adding a trainers record at the track and a particular race
i find im overwhelmed at times so select articles ...less is more
MORE IRISH ARTICLES
back to lay software
Reduce the subscription for international patrons as the relativity of the exchange rate makes it difficult to buy gold subscription
TMI
do more syndicate ownership
"I love the site, loads of information but like any hobby you need to stay up to date and use the tools/skills on a regular basis to get the most out of it. When my yearly gold subscription came out of my bank I nearly asked for a refund, but I reminded myself of how good the site is and decided to give it another year.
The reason I nearly cancelled is because if I’m honest I don’t engage with the content outside of the race cards, the articles are too long, too many graphs and charts, I don’t have the time to digest the information (and act on it if I do find something interesting) and I don’t particularly enjoy reading on a screen. Personally I would much prefer a short 2-10 min video discussion/presentation on the topics that you write the articles about, even shorts (20-30 seconds videos) in the format of the 'elevator pitch', just tell us key information."
"I do like your in-depth trainer studies; perhaps more of them - and a review of the performance of the key tips from those a year or two later, to see how they’ve done.
Your recent review on Harry Fry and Dan Skelton was really good on both trainers. This emphasised the value of backing Harry Fry’s supported novice chasers. Unfortunately for all of us, he’s just had two chase winners all season so far. "
"As per my comments in 'more' - think strategically and develop 2-3 year plans because what is used now will probably not be as useful by then. For all of my sports betting I am more interested in (raw) data than interpretation and am always looking for quality data to enable me to make betting decisions (golf now has some real good sources).
Reading this back it sound a little bit negative on the service you provide. I only joined this year so I am probably not making full use of what you have to offer and I do really like the offering especially the way it's presented and can see how far you have come over the last few years. "
With so much info a more concise list of potential horses expected to run well
Not sure
Making the query tool better or drop it.
???
The adverts to join Geegeez Gold when I first log in. I already subscribe to Gold, so they are irrelevant to me.
one site with all sectionals available.
A structured pathway to learning for the novice punter.
Annual subscriptions but for weekend and festival racing, as many times I dotn have access at work to assess the racing on each working day
I would strive to continue to making geegeez the best site in the world (probably)
Allow users to suspend QT Angles and then reinstate them as required, without counting towards their 300 limit. My Epsom fast ground system is only needed for 3 months a year!
Nothing to change
Nothing I can think of, its an excellent source of data and might i add great value for money. Keep it up.
In the Tracker ( using mobile) the add notes button is to close to the remove horse button ( of the tracked horse above/ below ) and you can lose horses from the Tracker.
More articles on trading and pedigrees
Make Excel downloads available.
Shorter video's with less flickering around!
Put up a horse on Saturdays and big festival days with reasons for selecting it.Thanks and best of luck ðŸ‘
Longest Travellers would be good, with links to race to check horse/trainer/jockey form as well as how much the race is worth - a column added to the Racecard view/ instant expert for each horse travel distance would be ideal!
Adding pre-race predicted pace score into query tool
Pace
De clutter BLOG section. Suggest move older articles to archive later articles place under separate headings e.g racecourses, pace&draw, trainers, handicapping etc. making them easier to locate.
Having some kind of blank canvas with each race card for own working out ie spread sheet with just runners names when Iam doing a tissue have to write the runners down on paper which is time consuming
Nothing comes to mind.
"Add some kind of grade or points to say if this race was run above or below the standard/ medium for this class of race. It would save me buying the Weekender 😀
"
I’d love to see an angle for a sire’s debutants/2nd run.
Nothing that I can think of
Not sure
nothing happy with the product
It might be me, but I don't find the Query Tool particularly user friendly. I use Horseracebase.com for trends, systems, horse profiling, queries etc.
Nothing really can’t fault anything on the web site.
Same as ' What could we do MORE of'.
I would make the a-z runners report a CSV as per other reports
Absolutely love Geegeez so the answer I’m afraid is nothing springs to mind
Add Betfair Win and Place prices if possible
Able to export data from query tool
Assure your faithful that you won't sell the website to ANY third party anytime soon and that the even then it will be only to someone wanting to provide exactly the service you currently provide and never to a company whose interest is in bending the truth of statistics to suit their own aims and ignoring the interest of horse racing enthusiasts.
Proximity Form on Instant Expert 🙂 ps/ lovin that proximity is now within the recent form tab - Cheers
Advice on how YOU use the reports and features
Everything fine as it is.
The thoughts of trainers through a weekly/monthly column ?
"Hard to say as I don’t have access to all your data. A daily PATENT or LUCKY 15 with decent-priced horses would be useful (4/1+). As most outlets just stick with favs (this could be a Premium feature).
Don’t try to do too much. Pursue an idea and explore it properly. For example, choose a trainer (or 3) and properly assess their chances using your tools on a daily basis (if they have no runners then fine).
You could also do this by course (pick a handful that have a lot of meetings like Wincanton or Ascot).
Offer personalised training sessions on how to use your software. Following videos is only useful up to a point and there’s no substitute for real-time questions."
Less Emails
"Don’t like the having the how to use Geegeez stuff at the bottom of every racecard..but it’s not a deal breaker
Keep doing what you’re doing. If it’s not broke don’t fix it
Best regards "
Help with profiler please . If you review the card and take down the horses you are interested in from say 8 to 4 that doesn’t feed through to the profiler page so all the 8 are still there . Might be me but it’s the only frustration I’ve got with the site .
the weight horses carry with regards to form some can carry big weight some can't
Adding more to the query tool, such as 1st run under that code or 1st run for yard. Also trainer targets (attempts in race etc)
I'd charge a little more for what you have and include more ante-post race analysis and "tipping" (I know it isn't tipping, but race summaries might be a better way of putting it)
Daily news More
I'm satisfied at present.
"When going through a race I often end up using trainer snips, which is really good, to check on a trainers record in a novice race on first start record, or a trainers record with a horse fresh '+60 days' if its been on a break. Obviously that tool's great for seeing what the trainer is like if it has a runner that meets those requirements on that day.
But what I'd like is to be able to see a trainers record when it doesn't meet those requirements on the day, the reason being that a horse may have run poorly after a break and is having its second start, in that scenario I'd like to see the trainers record after a break to potentially dismiss that run, but on the day they have no qualifiers running after a break so I can't see it. So a trainers 'snips' section that includes all data. I have no idea if this would be difficult, the info. is there, but I guess it would be a huge database to be on hand all the time.
Hope this helps."
It’s only trivial but I’ve started using Proximity form.. it would be ideal if you could add them to the drop down horse form on the main racecard page rather than full form. So you can scroll down and browse all the horses at once.
Explain PACE diagrams. I look at them but unsure if I'm reading them correctly
Add French and German Group 1&2 form to Instant Expert
Would add Irish especially and or English point to point form useful for novice races nh
More trends info
no idea, I dont want to be the boss.
Add betting moves /relevance to form cards to use in current race analysis
Have a simpler step by step article about Query Tool
Not sure on the P2P sources of data - if that could be added would be helpful - I use France Gallop for the French runners info - can find a P2P ditto - overall EXCELLENT which is why GG keeps winning best in class - very well done to the team ; - )
"I'm retired, punt for fun, like studying form most mornings - probably not your normal gee-geez punter. I use GG as a secondary source of information to the Racing Post paper and website. I use RP for most of my studying, and GG as additional source, or prime source when I try to work out the way the race will be run. Your Pace feature is unique and if I was boss I'd do all I could to utilise, develop and promote that function before the Post use their resources to add the feature themselves. They're a bright bunch of lads and must provide pace data soon so GG need to kick on.
You've done well to invade their market as well as you have, and to give the more data-based punter the tools with which to work. Your probably better looking after their needs than those of 1 77yo Post reader. There aren't that many of us left!"
Add distances to trainer form to give a better picture of trainers general form a 20/1 beaten a length can tell more than an odds on winner also proximity could be utilised
Nowt
Not much at all to be honest
Some in who was clear so see
Add days since last run angle to the query tool for creating betting angles systems
Complete overhaul of the user interface for building angles.
going at each course on the day & if the going suddenly changes make one aware of it
Analyse actual races with Gold, preferably before the event, but after would also be good
I’m more in to trading horses pre race so I get all I need only using free version at the moment I would like to no more about Dutching horses in double and trebles perms plans to cut the number of bets More perms snd plans would b great like the lucky15 plan
Ability to export Instant Expert to Excel
Whilst the website provides loads of information it is a pity that you do not offer the opportunity to watch replays either in full or just the finish of a race. This information is available elsewhere for free so by adding this feature this would really make you the number 1 website for the total job of finding winners. A link to the BHA website for checking latest going reports would also be helpful.
More in depth analysis in Irish Racing.
more race trends
You are doing a great job and very creative. I am glad you are the boss 🙂
The price
Personally, I would like to see the Sire, Dam, Dam Sire on the racecards.
don't know
Trainers sending single runners long distances to meetings.
Change the way racing insight is used ie use new features each week
race trends, I like making my own but it takes time I don't know if there's a way to make query tools race trend friendlier
Shorter more focused videos
sorry notsure again
Think everything is pretty much covered above, at least getting feedback from your data base is the right way to go, to gauge if the mix is right in terms of content offered.
Wouldn’t remove anything think you’ve got most stuff covered
not sure
maybe incorporating 1st call sectionals to the pace map if possible
Me personally id like you to pick just one race maybe couple of times a week. And put a selection up and see if we are reading the race correctly if that makes sense. Not a tipping service but more an educational kind of thing.
I struggle with the Query Tool, it’s just not intuitive enough for me.
Being able to disect more in query tool, such as highlighting novice, maiden, claiming races
Nothing What I don't like others will and vice versa
Make query tool easier to work/better designed
Nothing - all good as far as I'm concerned. Thanks Matt.
Bring back STAT OF THE DAY... Chris doing Racing insights, is like putting Ronaldo in goal. your not getting the best out of him.
Have a Horses current OR on their Full form page when looking back at previous form (currently shows rating for last run I think) The Nirvana would be if the current OR was alongside the result for each Horse. Eg, I’m looking at a race today, I look back at the result of a Horse’s last race and I can see the current handicap mark for the Horses in that race, so I can immediately see for example that it beat Horses now rated 125, 130 & 135 in a Novice and is today running off 120. Appreciate that might be difficult but it would make a massive difference to my form study.
Customer service
See query tool message above.
Offer a life time membership again or if someone takes a yearly offer like i did for £297, offer them the chance to pay monthly(£24.75) or quarterly(£74.25) the following year because with covid money has become tight, I'm sure many members myself included could have afforded to stop! and we do miss geegeez.
If you could provide BSP as well as SP it would be awesome.
Query tool top/bottom weight performances
Sadly I still loved Stat of the day AND double Dutch, but I understand completely why they’ve gone
highlighting horses that match a particular trends or criteria
I realise this one is pretty unrealistic, but my ultimate choice would be a selection from yourself/the writers in races (even it's it one meeting a day/week) rather than just having the RP spotlight pulled through.
Maybe asking for articles by subscribers on subjects put forward by yourself
Shorter and more concise videos.
Don’t know
make it more like old past superform simple
More horses / trainer trends for courses
Make the query tool as useful as Flatstats / Horseracebase
Just keep doing what you do best
Have a geegeez forecast based off the data and angles...bit like Timeform
Bring back SOTD
The only thing I would introduce is race replays, but I am not sure that is practice.
More info on jockeys normal riding weight
"Well as I said ratings and conditions
and draw are the only way.
Sectionals ,pace ,and all the rest you cover are ""by the way"" . You guys can't see the Trees for the forest...sadly
Try telling in advance how a race will be run, times are irrevelant except where two divisions of a race are run,especially maidens/ novices
Etc."
I wish you would include more races, so we can drop the short price horses and play more races whereby the horses are no less than 7/2.
More blog post type articles.
"At the risk of this becoming an essay I find that Gold is at the same time absolutely brilliant and practically useless. That is not meant to be an insult to Gold itself and is most definintely aimed at the user, but I find that there is simply too much information and I suffer from the oft-mentioned overwhelm. The result of this is that I feel I cannot spend the time I would need to sort out the relevant information from the less vital nuggets and so I tend to end up not bothering at all. (I am on the autistic spectrum - not on the Rainman level but enough to affect how I use data and information. I need to have time to analyse to my satisfaction or I can get a little stressed. What I can't do is dip in and out quickly).
I find that if I look at reports and find a horse I then discover reasons not to back it once i check the pace or instant expert tabs. Or I find a horse in instant expert but then the pace looks wrong or the form points to too much weight today etc etc. In the end I usually run shy and back nothing. A quick check of my obsessive-personality-structured spreadsheet shows that in total I have placed 180 bets as a direct result of Geegeez obtained info or insight since I signed up for Gold and have made a total loss of £33.23 over that time. This may be down to bad luck or bad choices or insufficient faith in the 500 bets I could perhaps have made but didn't which might have made me a healthy profit, but it is certainly not what I need to fund the lifestyle I would much rather be enjoying than the one in which I seem to be stuck!
The fault for the above results lies with my choices and not the information available. However, the effect is that I will not be renewing in February despite the fact that I would gladly tell any horse racing fan how amazing Gold is.
I have long thought that rather than a binary choice of all the info in the world or virtually nothing that there could be a 'Silver' option which contains some of the manifold Gold benefits without serving up the whole a la carte menu. Which bits should be included and which shouldn't and what the price should be are, of course, the tricky areas. Ideally the member could pick and choose which bits they would want but I realise this could be problematic for the programmers to engineer. At the end of the day I am just tossing the idea into the brainstorm meeting and leaving it to the management to thrash out the details!
Anyway, thank you so much for the great content and information and the time you all clearly take to provide the same and best wishes for the future.
"
Pretty happy with the balance tbh
More form explanantory videos.
Make it all free !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sort can't think of anything I want to change
"I was going to suggest a make your own card, but that's already in progress. Thanks for everything you all do.
"
Building more of a community perhaps?
Somehow create a quick view summary of the profiler tab, using filters selected so all horses data can be viewed at the same time
tricast or exacta articles - perms or pointers for the big handicap on a Saturday
Monthly subscription offers instead of 6 month and yearly winter warmer offers
A tipster competition
Improving the ability to visualise the performance of QT angles and perform admin (update and delete)
Is there any way to incorporate prize money won by Horses
I would be grateful if there was a quick way to find out whether horses are more likely to run up sequences in better grade races - for example are they more likely to do it in Class 2 handicaps than say Class 6 ones. And how much more likely are they to do it.i
Continue to improve the query tool. The dates can be annoying as it includes todays runners before they have run unless you manually alter the date.
Definitely, without a doubt, I would get a new SP service provider, to give the correct price of a horse, like sporting life. Also I wouldn't change any of today's information once the race is run. It's almost impossible to back test a betting strategy or system on Geegees because the information you are looking at on yesterday's races has all changed because the race has been run, like jockey stats, trainer stats, horses win %, then what? This information is all useless information once the race has been run because it's all changed. Even horses, if you go back and see how a horse run in 2020 and it's jockey and trainer stats and is races, it's all changed and updated automatically to today's information. That's no good for back testing a system. Nice questionnaire, it covered a lot. Thanks ðŸ˜ðŸ‘
Apart from the expansion to the query tool (which I can't wait for!!) maybe some more trainer angles in relation to the jumps. For examples trainers record first time over hurdles and fences. And when a trainer is highlighted in the first time headgear/surgery report if we could see the stat that on the race card when we click on the trainer icon that would be helpful
In reference to my comment above - I like the fact that Geegeez is a one stop shop for me in the main with my betting. Maybe improving the timeliness of the fast results coMing through
as stated, 5th place result would help me, save me trying to find it
Having to constantly log in is a pain, a small pain
Look at the site's search functionality. I do sometimes find it very difficult to find articles that i've read previously, with most search strings returning 'news' items that are not what i want. Really don't know enough about how practical that would be but anything to increase the ability to search would be appreciated.
Shorter videos
Have a cheaper silver version with all the basic facilities but maybe no tools or reports
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I have been involved in racing and betting for over 25 years now and when I hear people mention the words ‘betting system’ it takes me right back to the early days, writes Dave Renham. When I started betting on horses, systems made up a significant part of my overall betting approach or strategy. I was at university at the time and as a Maths student I had plenty of work that involved following complex rules to answer difficult mathematical problems. The reason I was drawn to racing systems, then, was the simplicity of it compared to the work on my degree course. All I had to do was create a few logical rules in order to come up with a ‘system’ that would pinpoint a selection or selections. Then it was time test the idea – look at the stats, trends and results. Again, stats and trends as mathematician ‘floated my boat’ as it were.
Now, at that time - the mid 90s - computers were still in their infancy and hence checking past results was an issue. Initially I used form books, but soon realised that although the idea of creating systems was relatively straight-forward, back testing data was unbelievably time consuming. Then came the game changer – racing systems builder. RSB as it was known revolutionized creating racing systems. You suddenly had years of data at your fingertips (going back to 1986 from memory); numerous variables you could test, either in isolation or combined in a ‘system’. AND it was quick – so quick for the time. Put in your variables, click a button and within seconds the results of your systems were on the screen. I must have tested thousands of systems with this software.
These days things have come a long way and now there are numerous ways to test systems with computer programs, website databases, etc. As a result, racing systems are still very popular. Many punters are still drawn to systems for basically the same reason I was drawn to them all those years ago - because they are straight-forward and easy to implement: no long drawn out form study or daily race reading, no real emotion to come into the equation each time you place a bet.
Once you have your system or systems, the work is basically done. Here at geegeez.co.uk, we have Query Tool which allows you to create and then test certain systems, and once you find a system you want to follow, you can save it as Query Tool Angle – this means any qualifiers will appear on the racecard and in your daily QT Angles Report.
Not all people though are system fans. They will say that systems can be too rigid and that they rarely perform as well ‘live’ as they do in testing. In addition many non ‘systemites’ (and indeed some system fans) believe that profitable systems have a limited shelf-life, and more often than not this is the case. One problem for system punters is that determining the likely shelf-life of a system is nigh on impossible. Horse racing and the betting market are continually changing and hence certain systems that have been profitable in the past at some point start to lose profitability, and eventually start making losses. One of the main reasons why this occurs is that the betting market adjusts, and although the strike rate essentially stays the same, the prices on offer contract (shorten) and hence the profit margin disappears.
Thus, the system punter cannot sit back on her laurels once she has created her collection of winning systems. Such players need to be constantly monitoring results over the short, medium and long term to see whether that system should continue to be used.
Racing System Myth Busting
Before moving on I think it is important to bust a couple of system myths. If you type in ‘horse racing systems’ on any internet search engine you get a plethora of links. Some of those links share so called free ‘winning’ systems, but as we know in life, we need to be initially wary of anything that is ‘free’. On one site for example it offered several ‘winning’ systems, two of which I had seen before.
System 1 – Back Beaten favourites
The theory is simple, horses that were favourite last time out but lost are likely to start a bigger price next time, and the argument often goes along the lines that there were probably excuses for its latest defeat. There is some logic in this, I guess, but the long term results produce significant losses. Below shows the yearly return on investment to Betfair Starting Price if you had backed all horses that were beaten favourites last time out. This includes flat, all weather and National Hunt:
Just the two profitable years out of 13. Backing all runners since 2009 would have yielded a loss of £4192 to £1 level stakes. Ouch. Losses were consistent across the three formats although flat races saw the biggest percentage losses of over 6%. For the record SP losses amounted to 15% (15p in the £).
Now this does not mean some beaten favourites can be value and worth backing, but it is clearly not as simple as backing all such runners.
System 2 – Long distance travellers
This old chestnut is where it is believed that if a trainer is sending a horse on an extremely long round trip then there must be a reason for it; the reason being it is expected to win! According to some this is even more of a certainty if only one horse is taken that far. Again, definite logic behind the idea, but it is unlikely to guarantee you long term profits. I have looked at horses that have travelled on a round trip of 400 miles or more when they are the only horse running for that trainer on that course on that given day. Over the last ten years these runners would have lost you nearly 8p for every £1 bet. 2013 and 2018 did see miniscule profits, but the other years all showed losses. Now, you may be able to refine the idea to find some value and I guess some trainers are better to follow than others. However, this is not my type of system.
How to Create Racing Systems: Avoid Back Fitting
When it comes to building racing systems, the general rule is “the simpler the better”. Unfortunately even if you keep it simple there is a very high chance that the system will not be profitable in the long term. Also, critically, you need to beware of back-fitting. Back-fitting is essentially making the system fit the results. In other words a system punter thinks of a basic idea, examines the data and then looks at numerous factors and adds only those that improve the results. This is clearly an unsound way of creating systems and will lead to poor results in the long term.
It is worth giving examples of some back fitting ideas:
Only back the horse when priced between 6/1 and 12/1
Why only this price bracket? Why not 5/1 and 14/1 for example? If you are going to implement price constraints it only makes sense if you use a maximum or minimum figure only. For example only back if the horse is 10/1 or shorter. Even then, there is likely to be a degree of 'convenience' about the chosen threshold.
Don't back 3yo or 5yo horses
Why not 4yo and 6yo? If you are going to use an age bracket it needs to make sense with a full range, including all age groups in the range – e.g. only back horses aged 7 or younger.
Only back the horse if it has run exactly three times that season
Why three races? Why not two or four? In terms of seasonal runs, for me the only variable that makes any sense is when the horse is having its first run of the season.
How to Create Racing Systems: Some Building Blocks
Essentially any rule you incorporate in a system needs to have some logic behind it. Also, I personally think systems need to show a level of consistency year in, year out. Some ‘profitable’ systems are only profitable due to freak winners at big prices. Hence I like to see most years making a profit; the more the better.
OK, let's try and come up with a couple of ideas and then from there create a system. I will discuss my thinking and why certain rules or variables have been chosen. Then I’ll test them. Obviously I am looking for long term profits where possible, but one has to accept that the vast majority of good ideas will not necessarily create a winning system - far from it!
1 Utilizing draw bias
It is unlikely that any serious punter is not aware of the historical draw bias at Chester. The tight configuration of the track has seen lower drawn horses (those drawn closest to the inside rail) have the edge for as long as they have used starting stalls there. However, is it possible to profit from this? Bookmakers are fully aware of the bias and naturally factor the draw into their prices. So is that enough to take any potential profitable angle away?
Those who have read my draw based articles will know that I focus on handicaps when trying to uncover biases. This is because the races are more competitive; and in these pieces I focus on handicap races with at least eight runners. The reasoning behind this is more down to the fact that bigger fields accentuate the negative bias of horses drawn furthest away from the favoured draws. Hence the first three basic rules for my potential system are going to be:
Course – Chester
Handicaps only
8 or more runners
From here I need to add a distance rule and a draw positioning rule. From my experience of studying draw biases for 25 years, I know that shorter distances tend to see the strongest biases. I also know that you need to focus on a small group of favoured draws – probably no more than three or four stalls. So let’s add the minimum trip only (5 furlongs) and stick to the four lowest drawn horses. It is best to quantify the draw position in that way rather than draws 1 to 4, as non runners mean that occasionally horses originally drawn in stall 5 or even stall 6 become one of the lowest four.
Note that in recent years some Chester sprints have been run over the ‘extended 5’ which equates to 5½ furlongs. However, here I am going to stick to the absolute shortest distance of 5f.
So our full system now reads:
Course – Chester
5f Handicaps only
8 or more runners
Lowest four drawn horses
This is a nice simple system with not too many rules. Some people will argue the 8+ runner rule is back-fitting, but I have explained why this rule makes sense to me and I would maintain this is not back-fitting, although it is an arbitrary number, and I could perhaps have chosen seven or nine runners: sometimes a degree of discretion is required. One could argue this is a slightly unusual system due to the fact that it is going to pick four horses each race, and that clearly won't work for those who insist on only backing one horse in a race. Personally, I'm seeking long-term profit, regardless of how many horses I bet to that end!
Now it's time to test it out. Firstly, I will look at the long term data going back to 2009 and then split it up into two blocks, 2009 to 2014 and then 2015 to 2021.
Data from 2009 to 2021 gives the following results:
These are the results generated from the Geegeez Query Tool. The profits shown (Win PL) are to traditional SP. If backing to Betfair SP this would have increased to £103.16 (ROI +40.3%).
So a positive start, but now let us compare the two time frames. 2009 to 2014 first:
And now 2015 to 2021:
The periods have very similar strike rates which is good to see, and both time frames have been profitable; however, the more recent period has been less so. The yearly returns on investment are shown below:
Yearly profits for any draw based system are going to be more volatile than many systems partly due to the relatively modest sample sizes. The chart shows eight profitable years and five unprofitable ones to BSP although 2016 and 2021 losses were negligible.
In the past two years the results have been less good and I mentioned in a Chester draw and pace article back in April 2020 that sprint biases at Chester may be getting less strong mainly due to the fact that course officials have added a false rail to the home turn at more and more meetings. This rail movement allows more space on the inside in the short straight and I believe this means that more horses drawn wide are able to challenge on the inside, thus saving ground, rather than having to race wide for the whole race and essentially running a longer distance. This, of course, was the intention of the course administration: good news for them, less so for us draw system players!
At this point it is still conjecture to some degree. But, as can be seen from the graph, 2011 and 2012 results seem to mirror those for 2020 and 2021, and as we can see profits bounced back in 2013, 2014 and 2015. So it is something to monitor and it goes back to what I mentioned earlier about the shelf life of any system. Maybe this potential system is coming to the end of its utility and long term profitability. In fact, there may even now be an angle in opposing inside draws until the impact of the false rail becomes more widely understood.
2 Utilizing trainer patterns
Trainer systems are extremely popular for many reasons. Many punters believe that trainers are creatures of habit and hence patterns both good and bad are likely to replicated form season to season, and over the longer term. There is also plenty of scope with volume trainers (i.e. those who send out a lot of runners) to utilise different variables – courses, age of horse, race type, jockey bookings etc.
I am going to focus on one my favourite trainers, John Gosden. For the record Gosden Senior now shares his training license with son Thady and hence when researching Gosden on the Query Tool you need to tick the following:
Another reason for choosing John Gosden is because I perceive that he is a very consistent trainer from year to year, as well of course as a very good one. To illustrate my point, here are his yearly strike rates for all UK races going back to 2021:
As you can see his strike rate has been consistently high and his overall strike rate stands at an impressive 21.6%. Backing all 8000+ runners between 2009 and 2021 would have yielded an SP loss of around 8% (8p in the £), but to Betfair SP you would have made a small profit of £185.55 (ROI +2.3%). That is quite remarkable and a good starting point to drill down into this data set.
There are not many trainers that you could potentially run a group of different systems against and still stand a good chance of most being profitable, but the Gosdens probably come into that category. For this piece though I am going to offer just one such system, and one which is about as simple as you can get.
I have always noted that Gosden has performed well with horses that stay in training beyond their three year old campaign and, in general, I have also felt he does better in races of longer distances. Hence this system has just three rules:
Trainer – John Gosden / John & Thady Gosden
Horses aged 4 or older
Race distance of 1 mile 4 furlongs or more
Looking at the results as a whole from 2009 to 2021 we get the following breakdown:
An overall strike rate of aroundone1 win in every four races coupled with profits of just over 34p in the £ (to SP). If backing to Betfair SP this would have increased to £264.62 (ROI +60.0%).
Looking good so far – now to compare the two time frames. 2009 to 2014 first:
And now 2015 to 2021:
As we can see, the more recent past has seen a higher strike rate, but lower profits. However, overall I think we should still be pleased with the general feel of this system. For the record the Betfair SP profit since 2015 stands at £96.33 which still equates to impressive returns of just over 40p in the £.
The yearly Betfair SP returns on investment (ROI%) for 2015 onwards are shown below for context:
Six profitable years out of seven is pleasing even if the system performance has dropped off a little compared with the period 2009 to 2014.
Now this system could be improved further from a pure profit perspective; indeed if you extend the distance frame to 1 mile or more, overall profits increase from £264.62 to £323.35, but this a classic example of back-fitting the system to the results. Hence I am sticking with 3 simple rules, because they work and they fit my own perception. In reality, it is likely that somewhere in between the convenience of one mile (the shortest distance to make a profit in the research) and 1m4f (my initial perception) is a legitimate extension of my first pass system.
Finally I want to look at something that may be familiar to many readers...
3 Back the outsider of three
Earlier I looked at busting some system myths. However, one long standing betting angle that some punters have sworn by over the years, backing the outsider in a three-runner race, actually has held up well since 2009. So the system reads:
All UK races, (flat, all weather, National Hunt)
3 runner races only
Third in the betting
Here is a breakdown of the results alongside the performance of the favourite and second favourite:
The outsider of 3 (third favourite) has virtually broken even at starting price. Favourites meanwhile would have lost you over 8p in the £.
Not surprisingly, the third favourites have secured a Betfair SP profit over this time frame. Indeed, you would have made £181.87 to £1 level stakes which equates to an ROI% of over 10% (10p in the £). These Betfair SP returns on investment (ROI%) are shown below broken down by year:
As can be seen, performance is a little volatile, which one might expect: overall, there were eight winning years and five losing ones. All in all, though, there are definitely worse systems to follow. It is certainly worth noting that virtually all the profits have occurred in National Hunt racing. Sticking to NH only would have yielded a return of just over 17p in the £ over the same 13 year time frame.
System Building: Summary
I hope this article has whetted your appetite for more system articles in the future. System betting has the potential to be fraught with danger, but that of course applies to all betting in reality. I will be back soon with another system article. Please do leave a comment with anything specific you would like me to look at and I will do my best to accommodate your wishes.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/researchingracingsystems.jpg320830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2022-02-08 09:54:492022-02-08 09:54:49Racing Systems: An Introduction
The punters were loving it in the packed grandstands at Leopardstown during the two days of the Dublin Racing Festival as favourite after favourite went in, writes Tony Stafford. A host of Grade 1 races meant a conveyer belt of superb winners, confirming the power of the big stables almost in the manner of the Cold-War style May Day Parades in Moscow’s Red Square.
For armoured tanks and missile launchers read Mullins chasers and hurdlers, Elliott juveniles and handicap chasers not to mention the odd De Bromhead stealth bomber still to taste defeat in 14 faultless sorties.
Honeysuckle and Blackmore; Chacun Pour Soi and Townend; and, most demoralising for all the existing Gold Cup stars, a demolition job by Conflated and Russell in the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup, at 18-1 which brought only a temporary respite for the layers on Saturday.
Conflated can certainly describe Mr Ryanair. He has the twin roles of running Ireland’s most visible and visibly competitive airline along with a still massive undertaking with Gigginstown House Stud. The culls in the latter direction have clearly become evident. Only nine in the maroon colours appeared during the two days and 15 races of the Festival, a long way short of the days when the sort of big-money handicap chases and hurdles on offer here would have usually included half a dozen of his representatives in each. Whatever happened to all those caps? JP’s are all different colours to theirs so no taker there!
Gordon Elliott’s suspension last year coupled with the Covid restrictions were a convenient moment conflatedly to confirm Michael O’Leary’s support for Elliott and at the same time accelerate the cull. The horse Conflated, happily for the magnate and his racing manager brother Eddie, ran in the Gold Cup despite Eddie’s view he had no chance.
The relative outsider, although well backed in the lead-up to the race, had far too much speed for last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Minella Indo – showing something of his true self – and the rest. The one coming through late into the Gold Cup field often beats the established stars at Cheltenham. He usually has had fewer hard battles and knocks lingering in the recesses of his consciousness to shrink from on the big day.
We – or at least our trainers – moan about the way the Irish come and pinch our biggest prizes every March, with last year’s almost total oblivion, perhaps, being the final straw. Paul Nicholls seems to err on the cautious side at Cheltenham these days in favour of more serious involvement at Aintree at the Grand National meeting but he did make a challenge for two of this weekend’s big prizes.
Frodon, who had beaten Minella Indo at Down Royal on their joint reappearance back in the autumn – with Galvin splitting the pair – does not have a Cheltenham entry this year. This was his Cheltenham, running in a three-mile rather than three-and-a quarter-mile Gold Cup on Saturday.
The near-veteran put up his usual prominent showing under Bryony Frost, but when the taps were turned on over the second-last they were immediately raising a white flag, coming home a remote last of the seven finishers more than 20 lengths behind Conflated.
Then yesterday, Greaneteen, outpointed last time by Shishkin at Kempton having previously won the Tingle Creek, was utterly rolled over finishing last of five, miles behind Chacun Pour Soi in the Dublin Chase, a Grade 1 extended two-miler.
Those two obviously below-par performances will have been a sobering experience for Nicholls, a man who recently clocked up his domestic century of winners this season, just after Donald McCain and before the upwardly and geographically-mobile Irishman Fergal O’Brien.
More to the point though at a time when complaints about UK prizemoney are unrelentingly put forward by trainers and owners alike, surely it was an indictment of the lack of enterprise here that no other UK trainer – and there are more than 500 of them if you include permit holders – was daring enough to have a shot at the €2,881,500 on offer for the 15 races.
In all, 91 prizes were available over the two days and between them Messrs Mullins and Elliott snaffled 42% of the money – Mullins €702,000 from seven wins, five thirds, five fourths, seven fifths and three sixths; and Elliott almost precisely half a million from three wins, seven second places, two thirds, two fourths, six fifths and one sixth place.
In an almost exact proportion of prizes they collected 41 of the 91 on offer. The usual suspects filled in for the rest with Henry de Bromhead just about keeping his head above water with Honeysuckle’s wide-margin victory in the Chanelle Pharma Irish Champion Hurdle.
Understandably Honeysuckle was roared all the way from the winning line to the enclosure by an enraptured crowd finally allowed to give vent on a racecourse to their feelings. For what it’s worth, my view watching from the owners’ room at Kempton – my first time at one of my favourite spots on the circuit for almost two years – was that there were a couple of slightly worrying elements.
She probably got a little lonely out in front and while there was never a proper challenge, it wasn’t as smooth as some of the earlier wins. You have to wonder – well I did anyway – whether she might be getting bored with the whole “I’m miles better than the rest of you” girl-power routine?
Why Kempton, you might ask? Well I was there to watch the comeback of Jonathan Barnett’s Year Of The Dragon – sorry mate, it’s the Year of the Tiger! – after seven months off. A strong-finishing third, while a little short of peak suggests a win next time. February 24 at Newcastle fits William Knight’s penchant for sending his horses to that northern outpost. Fill your boots!
On another fill your boots theme, I had a nice chat with Dermot Weld at the sales at Newmarket on Thursday and he had news of his Chester Cup winner from last year. His Falcon Eight, under Frankie Dettori, took advantage of lenient UK handicapping to win the big staying prize from a mark of 104.
This Thursday he will have his second run over hurdles in a near-three-mile novice event at Thurles and as Dermot said: “When he wins he’ll go to the Albert Bartlett. And by the way, the English trainers were moaning about his handicapping and getting their knickers in a twist but he had been dropped only 4lb!” True enough Dermot, but to be dropped at all after finishing fourth in the Irish St Leger wasn’t exactly harsh treatment by BHA’s finest! We’ll be cheering for you on Thursday though with our vouchers for the potato race at the Festival warming our inside pockets for the next few weeks.
Returning to Leopardstown, surely the most eye-opening performance of the lot was Saturday’s bumper victory of Facile Vega, trained by Willie, ridden by Patrick and the second foal to run of their great champion mare, Quevega. I sort of hinted what I would be doing if I owned a mare of such quality – much as Michael Tabor did in his mating for Refinement that produced Walking On Air - and send her to Derby runner-up Walk in the Park. Suppose it’s easy if you own both the mare and the stallion!
It worked fine for Facile Vega’s workmanlike first run but here he was so dominating in outclassing a field of previous winners that the trainer seems set for a ridiculous 12th success in the Champion Bumper with a horse that is odds-on even before the entries are known.
Last year’s winner of that race, Sir Gerhard, was not the first string when he made it 11 for the maestro that day and, with Rachael Blackmore riding, he overcame hot favourite Kilcruit and Patrick Mullins, who himself had been ultra-impressive in this race twelve months ago.
Yesterday, in the Cheveley Park Stud colours and with only a single defeat – by Kilcruit when they reconvened at Punchestown, the gelding brought his tally to five out of six with an easy win in the Grade 1 novice hurdle. Now we have to wait and see whether another re-match is possible. More pertinently, perhaps, will be which Nicky Henderson star, the afore-mentioned Walking On Air (who would need to be supplemented) or Constitution Hill or Jonbon, he prefers to face before deciding on the Supreme or Ballymore.
The relentless march of the big Irish stables with their ability to identify and then secure with their greater financial power the best prospects is a trend that no end of BHA committees, tough talk from trainers and retaliation from handicappers will arrest any time soon. Major owners increasingly have their horses trained over there as there are meetings like last weekend’s when they can tilt for almost €3 million. Would it were so in England!
Today we introduced another new feature, this time a relatively simple one called 'My Races'. The concept is merely to allow users to 'pin' races of interest to the top of what can often be a very long list of races, especially during the summer, and on Saturdays and Bank Holidays.
To select a race, just click the star to the left; and to deselect, click the same star a second time.
Here's a short three-minute video showing how you can use 'My Races' in conjunction with the racecard filters to rapidly whittle your idea of the wheat from the remaining chaff.
In a recent survey, you told us you were less interested in ante-post tipping articles and more interested in trainer profiles. That's music to my ears personally, and I'm delighted to oblige (though I know a few will be disappointed by the change of tack).
To kick things off, I thought we'd have a rummage through perma-champ Nicky Henderson's back catalogue in search of profitable angles. The challenge, of course, with such a high profile name is that little is lost on the market; that is subtly different however from nothing being lost on the market, so enough with the defeatism and out with the metaphorical shovel.
Jon Shenton has set a very high bar with his beautiful data visualisation - as well as killer insights - in these previous trainer profiles, and I will try to carry the baton with a degree of dexterity... or at least not drop it. Hopefully Jon will return with further contributions later in the year, but for now it's me. My intention is to create a loose template which provides for both a set of fairly generic pointers but also some 'off road' insights. The latter will usually be where the good stuff lurks.
Nicky Henderson Brief Bio
Born in 1950, Nicholas John Henderson was educated at Eton and began his training career in 1978 having previously ridden as an amateur and served his training apprenticeship with the legendary Fred Winter.
Henderson has been based at Seven Barrows in Lambourn throughout most of his training career, after starting out, I'm told, at Windows House; and has won the Champion Trainer title six times spanning 26 years between the first (1993/4) and most recent (2019/20).
During his more than forty years with a licence, Henderson has (according to wikipedia) saddled 70 Cheltenham Festival winners, second only to arch nemesis Willie Mullins on that scale, and a haul which includes multiple victories in all of the major Championship contests. He will head to Gloucestershire in March with high hopes again, spearheaded by the brilliant two-mile chaser, Shishkin.
Nicky Henderson Overall Record 2009-2021
During the period covered by our database, Henderson has been remarkably consistent and has recorded a win strike rate of greater than 20% throughout. It may be worth noting that the most recent full year, 2021, saw his lowest annual strike rate and, though it is very early days in 2022, Nicky is operating at about 18%.
We can see in the chart below how the each way percentage line follows the same slightly downward trajectory in recent years as the win line.
More materially from a betting perspective, pure profit and loss figures - and the A/E indicators - are not numbers about which to get excited. That's as far from a shock headline as anything a racing dataset could reveal given the prominence and longevity of Henderson in the training ranks. So let's dig more deeply in search of, I hope, some genuine insight...
Nicky Henderson Performance, by Race Distance
It is often mentioned that the one glaring omission from Nicky Henderson's lustrous palmarès is the Grand National. The reality is that he has a far less impressive record over staying distances than trips up to an extended three miles; indeed he has very few runners over longer ranges - just 3% of those saddled were set to travel beyond 3m1f.
The likes of Sprinter Sacre, Altior and Shishkin are demonstrations of Henderson's prowess in the speed division. Though that trio were all Champion Chasers (or -elect, in the case of Shishkin), they also each contested the Supreme Novices' over hurdles: the latter pair won while Sprinter Sacre was 'only' third. The point is that Henderson majors with fast National Hunt horses in the main.
Those columns to the right may be the most interesting for us punters revealing that, across almost 7000 runners, NJH has managed to return a small profit at Betfair odds. The sample is plenty big enough to slice and dice further, as we shall in due course.
Nicky Henderson Performance, by Starting Price
The market is the most consistently reliable barometer of a horse's chance. In the case of Seven Barrows runners, they've stayed incredibly close to break even at prices up to 2/1, from nearly 2100 runners. Predictably, then, a small profit could have been chiselled on 'the machine' for those with sufficient foresight; and early prices with the Best Odds Guaranteed concession would likely have yielded a quid or three more.
[Across 13 full years, that's an average SP loss of less than 3 points per year - hardly terminal for those who like to stay in the game - and compares very favourably with an overall UK NH ROI of -6.24% for horses priced 2/1 or shorter]
Nicky Henderson Performance, by Handicap or Non-Handicap
Henderson is dealing largely with the better class of animal and, as such, most of his runners are in non-handicap races, as the table below illustrates.
His strike rate in non-handicaps of better than 31% is remarkable given that the average number of runners in UK National Hunt non-handicaps since 2009 is around 8.45 (and therefore overall strike rate is less than 12%). In spite of the outstanding winner-getting ability of Nicky in non-handicaps, as an approach it is poor house material: an SP ROI of more than 12% in the hole, and worse than 3% down at exchange prices.
Handicaps are a different story. Here, we punters are asked to trade regular winners for the chance of a profit; and that is a microcosm of the game as a whole: do we want winners, or profit? A bit of both would be nice, so this near 14% hit rate allied to a better than 7% ROI at exchange prices (a chunky 10% deficit at SP - who still bets at SP?!) is another interesting facet.
Delving into that a little more deeply, the next table shows performance by number of (NH) handicap starts. So, for example, the first row - '0' - is how Henderson inmates have fared on their first National Hunt handicap outing, i.e. zero prior NH handicap starts. It paints a fascinating picture.
Here we have one of the pre-eminent trainers of his generation, profitable to follow blindly at SP with his handicap debutants!
There were some losing years in the sample (seven at SP, three at exchange prices), but nothing of grave concern; and recent performance offers hope that the gravy boat is not yet empty, though it may be stalling through a dining table doldrums (not sure that analogy works...).
More generally, following Henderson horses on their first five runs in handicap company has paid off on the exchanges.
The more fearless readers may like to note that backing only the subset of these horses sent off at 10/1 or greater has reaped an exchange ROI of 58.55% (376.45 points on 643 bets).
Before you contemplate pawning the proverbial granny, keep in mind that a) the strike rate has been a lowly c.8%, leading to b) a longest losing run of 40 (and further losing spins of 37, 31, 30, 29, 28, 27, 26, 21 twice and on), and c) it is not always possible to know whether a horse will meet an odds threshold. Oh, and d) the odds threshold was arbitrary/convenient in any case.
Nevertheless, even with more caveats than my old mate the dyslexic tie seller, there is nourishment in the above. Not to wager religiously, but to be aware of when pondering a handicap with an unexposed Hendo at a price.
Nicky Henderson Performance, by National Hunt Race Code
The majority of Nicky Henderson's National Hunt runners are in hurdle races, almost exactly 60% of them to be (nearly) precise. Although it may look a bit lop-sided that's actually broadly in line with the overall ratio of hurdle runners compared with chasers and bumper starters. [That surprised me though, on reflection, it probably shouldn't have]
We again see a clear front-runner in betting performance terms; Hendo's hurdlers win one in four, which is about two-and-a-half times above the normal frequency and, while a negative 7% ROI at SP is no good, once more there is exchange jam on the wagering bread.
A Nicky Henderson Markup Combo
A number of the angles mentioned thus far are what might be called 'mark ups'. That is, they're not necessarily profitable to follow blindly, but they are a starting point to being on the right track. And they can be stacked up, like so...
We have seen that the Henderson yard seems to perform best at distances up to around three miles, and is a little under-estimated by the market with hurdlers and in handicaps, particularly those with limited (or no) previous handicap convictions to their name and/or at a price. So let's make that a 'system'.
- Nicky Henderson hurdlers at up to and including three miles on any of their first five attempts in a NH handicap
That angle, predominantly rooted in Seven Barrows logic, would have secured a miniscule 37 point profit on 1313 bets at SP; but rewards would have been considerably more substantial at early BOG prices. Exchange returns amounted to a strong 306 points (23% ROI).
If you had the stomach to only bet the longer-priced ones (10/1 and up), those figures become 40 winners from 425 runners (9.41%) for an SP return of 194 points (45.65% ROI) and an exchange tally of a whopping 381.71 points (89.81% ROI).
Now, clearly, there is a degree of retro-fit about this, as there always inevitably is with racing data analysis. But these are not best fit numbers; instead, they are based on the supersets shared earlier. [Profits were available from odds of about 15/2 and up, not just 10/1 and up; losses were made beyond 2m6f, not simply beyond three miles]
Another kicker on that angle...
Before closing, I'd like to introduce one more 'kicker' to the Nicky Henderson angle above. In my own generic research, triggered I should add from Jon Shenton's excellent earlier work, I've noted that horses which were unplaced last time are somewhat under-bet. So, when I find an angle that shows promise, it is often the case that the promise is amplified if focusing on those finishing off the podium the last day.
Adding 'unplaced last time out' to Nicky Henderson handicap hurdlers at up to and including three miles on any of their first five attempts in a NH handicap revises the bottom line thus:
122 wins from 781 runs (15.62% strike rate) and a starting price profit of 174.84 points (ROI of 22.4%). At exchange prices, that improves to 385 points and an ROI of nearly 50%.
This angle was profitable in four of the last five years at SP and all of the last five at exchange odds, and is in profit on both in 2022. And, for the purists, you can ditch the distance parameter as well as the odds range if you like; the bottom line is virtually unchanged (and is enhanced, rather inconveniently as I've only just finished the research, by 7/1 winner Scarpia this afternoon).
Nicky Henderson Profile Summary
There are lots of ways to isolate profitable approaches with even the highest profile trainers once you start looking. I hope this piece on the Master of Seven Barrows underscores that.
A great place to start looking is our Profiler tab, which Gold users will find on every racecard (and registered free users on every Race of the Day - register here if you need to).
Select the TRAINER option on there (or SIRE or JOCKEY), choose a few filters at the top (or not) and a date range, and away you go.
After that, you might want to graduate to Query Tool where you can really get stuck into some detail. And, once you find something you like, you can save it as a QT Angle meaning qualifiers will appear both on the racecard and in the QT Angles report which is unique and specific to you.
In this final instalment in a series of articles looking at run style bias at individual all weather tracks, we journey to Wolverhampton racecourse in the Midlands. Previous chapters can be found from the links below.
To view other all-weather track run style biases, choose from the below:
What I mean by run style is the position a horse takes up early on in its race, usually within the first furlong or so. So far in this series the statistics have shown that early position can be really important especially over shorter distances. Run style is often replaced by the word pace – this is because the early pace shown by horses in a race determines what position they take up early in the race. Some people argue that the word pace is the wrong word to use because it is slightly ambiguous. Hence for this article I will generally stick to run style.
Geegeez.co.uk has something called the Query Tool which can also be used to investigate run style along with other factors such as the draw, trainers, jockeys, class, going, etc. My research for this piece has primarily come from using this excellent resource. The run style data (known as pace in the Query Tool) is split into four sections (led, prominent, mid-division, held up). Each one is also assigned a numerical value. The values go from 4 to 1, as follows: led gets 4 points, prominent 3, mid-division 2 and held up 1.
As with the previous articles in this series I will be looking at individual distances - primarily the shorter ones - with the focus being 8+ runner handicaps. The data has been taken from 2016 up until 30th September 2021.
Wolverhampton 5 furlong Run Style Bias
We begin with a look at the shortest trip, five furlongs, where races feature a shortish run to the single bend. The figures for Wolves (max field size is 11) are thus:
Horses that have led early (front runners) have the advantage here, a point which correlates with all other all-weather courses we have looked at. All have shown a good to strong front-running bias over 5f.
This advantage to early speed can also be seen when we drill down into the non-handicap data as shown in the table below:
In fact the bias is far stronger, which is likely down to the fact non-handicaps are usually less competitive than handicaps; as a result, the better horses are likely to have the natural speed to be front-runners, and are likely to have fewer challengers over the course of a race.
Returning to 5f handicaps, let us look at the draw data for all runners. I have split the draw into three parts to compare the percentage of winners from each third of the draw:
There is a small edge to low drawn runners as can be seen, but ultimately the draw seems relatively fair: high drawn runners still win more than one in every four races. Front runners are able to win from any draw berth, both in handicaps and in non-handicaps, so there is no real edge to be found by combining run style with draw.
Onto to 5f favourites at Wolverhampton and their performance across all running styles. For the vast majority of course and distance combinations we have looked at in this series, front running favourites have outperformed other run style favourite counterparts:
Once again front-running favourites do best, but the gap to the next two early position groups is smaller than we have previously seen. Having said that, favourites that were held up have a dreadful record once again. Indeed, backing these held up favourites over five furlongs would have yielded a loss of over 51p in the £. For the record, backing front-running favourites would have produced a decent profit of 22p in the £.
This market / run style bias is replicated when we focus on horses from the top three of the betting over this 5f trip. This time a graphical representation, where we can see a beautiful linearity:
The number of runners does not seem to make any difference to front running performance over the minimum at Wolves. However, hold up horses have performed better in smaller fields – in 8 runner races their A/E value is 0.78, in 11 runner races this drops to 0.54. The sample sizes are solid so I imagine this finding is a sound one.
Over 5f, therefore, in both handicaps and non handicaps, predicting the front runner in as many races as possible is likely to provide a potential avenue to profits.
Wolverhampton 6 furlong Run Style Bias
Moving on to 6f handicaps now, where the maximum field size rises to 13. The stalls are positioned in a chute at the far end of the back straight, allowing the field a good amount of time to settle and find a position. Here are the data - there is a good chunk of races to analyse:
This represents a change of picture compared with 5f contests. Front runners and those racing prominently have very similar figures and it is clear that, as a group, they hold an edge over horses that race mid division or are held up. Having said that this run style bias is relatively modest when compared with other tracks we've looked at. That view is further illustrated when looking at the favourite / run style data, which are far more even than we've typically seen:
Favourites that are held up still struggle but not nearly as much as over five furlongs here, and at many other courses and distances; the other three run styles have virtually identical records.
A quick look at the draw next and as can be seen it is a very even playing field:
Before moving on to 7f handicaps, let us take a quick look at non-handicap run style data – here we do have a clear run style bias.
There is a significant bias towards front runners, which is replicated when comparing their A/E values:
In summary, over 6f at Wolverhampton, handicaps offer a small run style edge; that edge is much stronger and looks more ‘playable’ in non-handicaps.
Wolverhampton 7 furlong Run Style Bias
We move on to look at 7f handicaps next. The maximum field size drops to 12 here, and races start in a chute on a tangent joining the bend before the back straight:
These figures are very similar to the 6f ones. The strongest run style bias here is the one against hold up horses. Front runners have a slight edge over prominent racers who in turn have a slight edge over mid pack runners.
The performance of favourites over seven furlongs at Wolverhampton across different running styles is shown in the next table.
This looks more ‘normal’ again with front running favourites performing best. Mid-division favourites have surprisingly outperformed their prominent counterparts. Held up favourites again have a dismal record, winning on average just one race in every six and racking up losses of 43p in the £ if you backed all of them.
The draw stats are virtually even for each third of the draw so there is no edge there.
Interesting, the 7f trip, as with the 6f one, has much stronger run style stats in non-handicaps as the SR% table shows:
As you might hope, A/E values largely correlate too:
The 7f and 6f run style stats across handicap and non-handicaps are very similar, in spite of the differing stall starting positions. Once again over seven furlongs, non-handicaps will probably offer better opportunities from a run style bias perspective than handicaps.
Wolverhampton Racecourse Run Style Bias Conclusions
Wolverhampton has probably the weakest overall bias of the five all-weather tracks we've considered from a run style perspective. However, there is a decent front-runner bias over 5f in handicaps, while in non-handicaps the same early pace bias looks significant at races up to and including 7f.
It is important to appreciate the value of avoiding bad bets as well as finding good ones. In that context, Wolverhampton should offer a few solid run style betting opportunities, but knowing how poorly fancied runners fare when held up should put us off some bad ones, too.
Sometimes the story exceeds its components: the myth overcomes reality, writes Tony Stafford. For instance, how many Stayers Hurdles has the now ten-year-old Paisley Park won in his 20-race, ten-win hurdles career? Two, no three one’s mind wants to say. We’ve seen Andrew Gemmell, his owner, celebrate so many times. Sorry memory – and that went for me too just now until I checked – it’s just the one.
Yes, that day almost three years ago now when the Emma Lavelle-trained gelding sailed up the Cheltenham hill under Aidan Coleman clear of Sam Spinner and the rest to create a magical afternoon also charmed by victory on Frodon under Bryony Frost.
The owner, blind from birth but able to build quite a stable of horses having spent a successful career working in local government, has moved on notably also as a leading shareholder among the Barbary Lions in the champion Alan King-trained Flat-race stayer Trueshan. Andrew has enjoyed many wonderful days but Saturday’s third victory for Paisley Park in the Grade 1 Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham was very different as he was unable to be present.
At the time Paisley Park came up the hill to tumultuous cheers from the packed stands, his owner was in London Bridge Hospital recovering from surgery on a heart valve. He was intent on getting the surgery out of the way so he can be at the Festival.
As to the Stayers Hurdle, in 2020, sent off at 4-6 Paisley Park was only seventh behind Lisnagar Oscar – a well beaten third on Saturday in receipt of 6lb. Last year, again favourite, albeit at a more conservative 9-4, he was third, closest at the line behind the all-the-way, indeed runaway, Irish six-year-old Flooring Porter.
Coming into Saturday, the auguries for Paisley Park were far from bright. He now has a 12lb lower handicap mark – a relatively modest 157 – than after that Stayers Hurdle triumph in 2019. He had been third three times in succession in lead-up races at Wetherby, Newbury and Ascot, latterly in the Long Walk Hurdle, a Grade 1 race he had previously won, around five lengths behind Champ.
Re-opposing on identical terms, the last expectation was that he would revive old memories and many people were talking up the re-directed chaser Champ as the likeliest Stayers Hurdle winner, the Irish excepted and in some cases included. Indeed, such had been the impression created at Ascot by the J P McManus horse that the Irish were temporarily forgotten especially when Klassical Dream’s much-anticipated midweek trial for the Festival ended in a weak-finishing fourth.
Now, in the manner of racing and the best tradition of wishful thinking – I’m up there wishing with them all, too – we’re projecting a nice win in a five-runner race onto success in a 15-runner championship event.
“Look at all that ground he lost when turning around as the other quartet set off”, they say. Well, try that tactic on the big day and see where it gets you if Flooring Porter goes hell for leather again. It’s hoping to turn a potential deal-breaker into a positive. Saturday’s field was thin with only two of the five-horse field both in-form (Lisnagar Oscar certainly was not) and proven at the trip.
Paisley Park remains a wonderful stayer and his victory allowed all the outpourings of emotion that are commonly ceded to jump racing’s longest-serving heroes. We should take it as one more very welcome reminder of his talent rather that expect him to match or improve on it in six weeks’ time. For his owner, just imagine how agonising it must be having to hear rather than see it happening. A remarkable man!
Earlier on the same Cheltenham card, we saw a very likely Festival winner in the shape of the Gordon Elliott-trained Pied Piper. The way this four-year-old by New Approach was followed vainly up the hill by his lesser rivals suggests his breeder, HM The Queen, was far-sighted in naming him.
Trained by the Gosdens, an easy win off 89 at Leicester in heavy ground on his last run before Tatts Horses In Training sale brought a final mark of 96 and a sale price of 225,000gns. I wonder whether Charlie Longsdon ever suggested to the powers that be that the owner-breeder might enjoy jumping him herself. Money talks, it seems, even in places maybe you’d think it would not!
If he shows up for the Triumph on the Friday of the Festival he will obviously take all the beating, such was the style of the win. Gordon Elliott also has unbeaten-in-three Fil Dor and the usual maybe we’ll go for the Supreme chat entered the equation briefly. You win the Supreme with a four-year-old, so what? Win the Triumph and if two have to go for it, needs must.
It’s not the same thing exactly, but I remember a few years back when Refinement was proving herself a top-class mare in long-distance hurdles, I asked Michael Tabor whether he would breed from her.
His answer: “How bloody old would I need to be before she has a runner?”. A home-bred foaled in 1999, Refinement won 13 of 33 races and more than £360k. Already the mother of four winners - West Coast Time (2012), Meticulous (2014) and Risk Factor (2015) - all won in the blue and orange silks, but her most exciting prospect is a horse foaled when she was 18 years old.
That horse, Walking On Air, is trained by Nicky Henderson and is the first of the quartet to be sired by Walk In The Park, one of the star jumping stallions among the Coolmore NH team. If ever there was continuity of ownership and production, Walking On Air is it.
Walk In The Park, trained by John Hammond, was a home-bred of Tabor’s Irish and French Derby winner Montjeu, also trained by Hammond, an Englishman based in France who retired in the last couple of years.
Walk In The Park was runner-up in Motivator’s 2005 Derby as a big outsider and started his stud career in France standing at only €1,500. He immediately showed his propensity to produce winners and he was hastily finessed into the Coolmore nursery. Nobody – apart from anyone asking to send their mare – has ever been publicly aware of his fee. Betcha it’s a fair few Euros now!
But what a pedigree, and the way the Nicky Henderson-trained Walking On Air bolted up at Newbury on hurdles debut recently – in a similar manner to Pied Piper on Saturday – may finally make MT fully satisfied that his long-term and slightly unwilling project was worthwhile.
This column often descends into ageist talk and this week’s prime candidate for inclusion is one who made the century before his death last week. That worthy was Dick Duchossois, owner of Arlington Park racecourse in Chicago and founder of its Arlington Million.
I had one enjoyable evening at his posh estate outside the centre of Chicago when there to watch the race in the 1990’s. Arriving with festivities in full swing, I looked around for people I knew and recognised Michael Dickinson, by this time training in the US. Michael was holding forth to a table of admiring fans. As I approached, he called the table to order and said: “Meet Tony Stafford, a journalist from England. He taught me everything I know about handicapping!” As well as talking to me every night when he was still a jockey and returning back home after his sauna sessions, he was on to Colin Russell and Walter Glynn all the time, too. I never claimed a monopoly on the information, it was just me lucky enough to be there.
Michael and Joan Wakefield were at Newcastle racecourse the other night, obviously checking up on the well-being of the Tapeta surface he invented. He was chatting to Jim Goldie and Joanna Mason outside the weighing room when my pal Wilf Storey and daughter Stella came out with the colours bag after Joanna rode his horse.
Jim asked Michael if he knew Wilf, adding he’s the oldest trainer around. Michael said he did but Wilf corrected Goldie saying Joanna’s grand-father (Mick Easterby) is the oldest and Dai Burchill (to retire after a winner later in the week) was also older than him. Wilf said Michael looks as young as ever. He will be 72 on Thursday if you can believe that!
Talking of trainers packing up, it’s a great shame that Mick Quinn has called it a day after his big owner Kenny Bruce ended their relationship. Mick seemed to suggest that Bruce, a partner with his brother in Purple Bricks, who are now calling themselves in their advertising the biggest estate agency in the UK, might return some time in the future. Presumably when he can better afford it!
Mick trained a few horses for Raymond Tooth including Stanhope, a home-bred sprinter who won races before being sold to Ireland where he continued to do well. When he decided to hand in his licence, he gifted his two horses to the Northern Racing College.
One of them and the last to win him a prize was Great Hall, for his second in a Huntingdon hurdle race as an 11-year-old in October last year. A son of Halling, Great Hall was named on the way back from Manton to London as Ray and I were driven back by Steve Gilbey after Ray bought him from Brian Meehan.
He was a smart middle-distance horse who ran in the St Leger and won eight flat races and one hurdle. He will be a wonderful schoolmaster. Mick’s colleagues on Talk Sport will be happy to welcome him back as he has more availability for punditry and commentaries, and he also looks forward to resuming his entertaining after dinner speaking.
A very nice family man, Mick Quinn is one of the most down-to-earth and cheerful of people. If he feels he didn’t get full reward for the 25 years of effort, generally with modest horses, often like with Great Hall in their declining days, he has helped make a day at the races very enjoyable for anyone he ever encountered.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/PaisleyPark_Cleeve_830x320.jpg320830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2022-01-31 07:05:472022-01-31 10:45:08Monday Musings: Playing the Long (Distance) Game
In this week's Gold Nuggets, I show you how to use our awesome Query Tool to drill down into a race's history in search of profiles, patterns and, heck let's say it, trends! I've used the example of the Thyestes Chase, a high class extended three-mile handicap which often throws up a Grade 1 performer of the future. See what you think...
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/goldnuggets.jpg320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2022-01-26 20:55:202022-01-26 20:55:20Gold Nuggets #4: Using QT to Find Race Trends
This is the fourth article of my series looking at run style bias at individual all weather tracks and this time we'll look for run style/pace biases at Kempton Park, writes Dave Renham. Kempton is the only right handed all-weather track in the UK and all races are contested around at least one bend. There are two loops at Kempton, an inner loop used for 5f and 1m2f races, and an outer loop for all other distances.
To view other all-weather track run style biases, choose from the below:
Run style refers to the position a horse takes up early in the race, usually within the first furlong or so. I have written numerous articles where the stats demonstrate that this early position can be really important, especially over shorter distances. The word pace is sometimes used instead of running style because the early pace shown by horses in a race determines their early position.
Geegeez.co.uk has numerous excellent attributes including two extremely user-friendly resources to help you investigate run style. If you head to the Tools tab of Geegeez there is the Pace Analyser. This focuses solely on run style / pace and is an excellent and quick starting point. In addition this you have the Query Tool which can also be used to investigate run style along with other factors such as the draw, trainers, jockeys, class, going, etc. I personally use the Query Tool far more because of its ability to test more angles in combination with running style.
The stats I am using for this piece are based on the site’s pace / run style data. This data is split into four sections, each one being assigned a numerical value. The values go from 4 to 1, with 4 equating to horses that lead early (front runners); 3 is given to horses that race prominently and track the leader(s); horses that race mid pack / mid-division are assigned 2 points while horses held up at, or near the back, score 1.
As with the previous articles in this series I will be looking at individual distances – primarily the shorter ones with the focus being 8+ runner handicaps. The data has been taken from 2016 up until 30th September 2021.
Kempton 5 furlong Run Style Bias
A look at the minimum trip first which, as mentioned, is run around the inner loop with competitors on the turn for a significant percentage of the race distance. Let us look at the run style (pace) figures for Kempton:
There isa very significant run style bias over 5f at Kempton with front runners enjoying a huge edge. Sadly though, 5f handicaps are relatively few and far between at the track, and this pattern of limited races has been repeated in non-handicaps. For the record, there have been just 13 non-handicap races over 5f with eight or more runners since 2016 – the run style bias is the same as one would expect, with 6 wins for front runners, 5 for prominent racers and only 2 for the remainder.
Going back to the 5f handicap races here is a look at front runner performance by draw:
The draw, as a whole, generally favours the lower stalls and hence I had expected front runners to have the highest SR% from the lowest draws. However, as the table shows, front runners seem to be able to win from anywhere. This even looking spread may simply be down to the small sample size, but more likely it is because the front running bias is stronger than the low draw bias. This means the draw almost becomes irrelevant for these trail blazers.
For draw fans, here are the overall draw strike rates for all runners, not just front runners. This time I have split the draw data into three equal parts to look at percentage of winners from each third of the draw:
There is a fair edge to low drawn runners as can be seen, but it is not as strong as the run style bias.
Despite the limited number of races over 5f each year, it is clear that when they do occur, we need to take note. Being able to predict the front runner in these events will almost certainly prove very profitable over time.
Kempton 6 furlong Run Style Bias
Onto 6f handicaps now, and there are many more races here to get stuck into. The maximum field size over 6f at Kempton is 12 and this is how run style impacts performance:
Kempton has the strongest front running bias over 6f that we have seen so far at an all-weather track. However, in more recent seasons front runners have fared less well as far as winning is concerned. The graph below shows quite a drop off in win strike rate:
The SR% from 2016 to 2018 was 22%, compared to around 15% in the last three seasons (2019 to 2021). However, if we look at win and placed stats (each way stats), the strike rates are reversed:
The recent data concerning the each way stats makes me think that the front running bias continues to be fairly strong over 6f. The seasons 2019 and 2020 were probably slight outliers in reality with several front runners running well, but probably not quite making it home in front. Indeed, confidence in my opinion is helped further by the fact that the last 21 front runners of 2021 (up to 30th Sept) have provided seven winners (SR 33.3%).
Onto to 6f favourites at Kempton and their performance across all running styles:
A strong edge exists for front-running favourites. We have seen this numerous times now with different all weather courses and distances. This market / run style bias is replicated when we focus on horses from the top three of the betting over this 6f trip:
All in all, then, horses towards the top of market have a very good record when taking the early lead.
Let us look at the draw next, firstly for all runners. Once again I have split the draw into thirds:
As we can see, low drawn runners (those closest to the inside rail) have a decent edge, slightly stronger from a draw perspective than we saw with the 5f stats. Middle draws win as many races as one would expect given a level playing field, while the wider higher draws tend to struggle a little.
The table below shows the performance of front runners in 6f handicaps by stall position.
As we saw with the 5f data, front runners can win from anywhere, but in general over this furlong longer trip the lower drawn the better. This can be seen more clearly if I split the stalls into two, comparing draws 1 to 6 with draws 7 to 12.
Hence, a potential front runner drawn 6 or lower is the type of horse that might be expected perform well. If they happen to be in the top three in the betting, then such a horse becomes a very interesting proposition. Indeed, looking at all horses that led early from draws 1 to 6 that were in the top three in the betting, the stats show that 34% of them went onto win (67% win & placed).
Finally in terms of 6f handicap run style data I want to look quickly at field size. It seems that the more runners, the stronger the front running bias. Here is front runner performance split by field size:
A better strike rate has been achieved by front-runners in 11- to 12-runner 6f handicap races, when compared with 8- to 10-runner handicaps, coupled with a better A/E value and Impact Value.
With so many races over 6f, one would expect some good betting opportunities to appear here considering the decent front running bias.
Kempton 7 furlong Run Style Bias
Let's move on to the 7f trip now. Field size increases to a maximum of 14 runners at this distance. Here are the run style splits:
The front running bias here is similar to the 6f one, and A/E values for early leaders at the two distances correlate closely (1.48 versus 1.44). The strike rate is lower, due to the average field size being greater over 7f.
The front running bias has been consistent over the past six seasons as can be seen when we compare the front running SR%s in three yearly blocks:
A slightly stronger performance has transpired over the past three seasons but nothing statistically significant.
Favourite performance in 7f handicaps is next on the list: will the same type of front running favourite bias manifest over 7f?
An even more potent market / run style bias can be seen here. Indeed, front running favourites have returned profits of 23p in the £ in the study period. Compare that with favourites that were held up early, a group that lost a whopping 44p in the £.
Looking at the top three in the betting and combining them with a specific run style produces a similar result – backing all relevant front runners would have yielded a profit of 26p in the £; hold up horses from the top three in the betting would have lost 21p in the £.
Next stop a look at the draw – firstly for all runners and run styles:
Horses drawn closest to the inside rail (low) have an edge but it is not as strong as over 6f.
Now focusing on solely front runners and the draws they come from.
In general, more of the lower drawn horses lead early, but it seems that front runners are able to win from any draw. Front runners drawn 2 have an excellent record but this is an anomaly when comparing with draws 1, 3 and 4.
The last thing to discuss in terms of 7f handicap run style data is field size. We saw over 6f that bigger fields increased the front running bias. Is it the same over an extra furlong?
The strike rates are similar, but races with fewer runners should produce higher strike rates for the front runner. We need to look at the A/E value and to a lesser extent the Impact Value. Both figures show a higher performance value from front runners in bigger fields, which correlates neatly with the 6f findings.
Taking all this data into account, punters that use run style as a key component in their betting should be looking closely at qualifying handicap races here over 7f. Potential betting opportunities await.
Kempton 1 Mile Run Style Bias
Onto the mile distance now, where runners have the full length of the back straight to establish a position, and the maximum field size moves up to 16.
Over this fairer constitution, we are moving towards run style parity. Front runners still have a very slight edge but not one we can easily take advantage of.
There is one extra statistic I wish to share with you at this distance, however, which is looking at run style bias in conjunction with the race favourite. Once again we see the same pattern as before, even though the overall front running bias is minimal:
Front running favourites have won roughly twice the number of races compared with favourites that were held up.
Kempton Run Style Bias at 1m2f and 1m3f
There were only 16 qualifying races at a mile and a quarter going back to 2016, this distance being contested on the tighter inner loop, so the data set is far too small to try and analyse. However, over an extra furlong, 1m3f, it is worth a scan of the handicap data as the figures surprised me a little (max field size is 16):
There does appear to be a slight run style bias with front runners again performing pretty well. I cannot really explain this, except that perhaps the proximity of the first bend gives those on the lead an edge in terms of distance travelled and/or luck in running. When betting in such contests I would definitely prefer to be on a horse that is near the front early than held up at the back.
Kempton Run Style Bias: Conclusions
Kempton's all-weather circuit is a track where run style bias is relatively strong from 5f to 7f; these are the distances I would mainly concentrate on. Front runners have a good advantage across all three, while prominent racers are preferable to those racing further back early. Once again I would not be wanting to back a horse that is likely to be held up.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/kempton_runstyle_bias_pacebias_drawbias.jpg320830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2022-01-24 13:22:452022-01-31 07:42:28Kempton Racecourse All Weather Run Style Bias
Rather more than fifty years ago, when I was serving my mercurial time at the Press Association in Fleet Street, if you had suggested staging a big-money jumps card at Lingfield in late January, they would have been sending the idea’s originators to the nearest psychiatric ward, writes Tony Stafford.
In those days the PA was the principal provider of all the information on racecourse going reports, jockey and trainers’ plans and the technological developments we all take for granted were still decades away. So we dozen or so on the in-house team, bolstered by at least as many outside reporters, would get all the information first.
It was quite handy in the days of Jockey Pools when some of the more unscrupulous members would withhold jockey changes to the newspapers, their principal clients, on a Friday night until James Lambie could get the teams’ last-minute coupons down to Euston station in time for the final permitted mail delivery for Liverpool.
We used to collect almost every week and sometimes for a nice few bob. In those days the office was split between journalists (so-called) and clerical staff, but it was we journos who master-minded the selections while generally the much bigger clerical team would simply spy and feast on them.
After seven or eight winning weeks in a row, one Sunday morning, one of their contingent came over to our desk and said: “How did we miss Edward Hide?” Cheeky bugger!
I just recalled that portion of those days when the biggest joke was about Lingfield. In the era either side of World War 2, and presumably before that, the minimum requirement for a clerk of the course was an army commission and Major was the most common.
Peter Beckwith-Smith at Lingfield had carried that rank during the war years and, as was also the tradition, into his civvy street activities for ever afterwards. He was one of the more optimistic of clerks.
The joke was that when going out on a boat to assess the prospects of racing a couple of days ahead of a Lingfield fixture, he took out his stick, leant precariously over the edge and searched for the bottom. Later in his bulletin to our office he pronounced without a hint of irony: “Underneath the water the going is good to soft”!
That’s just a flavour of how absurd it would have been in those days to schedule any meaningful meeting in January. They sometimes used to get away with the late December meeting which included one of the first informative juvenile tests of the year, but January was usually a write-off or, rather, a wash-out.
Drainage improvements have meant the abandonments are much fewer, but to say the course has been fortunate to go unscathed through their inaugural three-day (one all-weather) Winter Million bonanza is an understatement.
After about ten dry days the ground was still heavy with soft patches. Just one or two wet days would have been enough to scupper their ambitious, perhaps foolhardy, plan. I wouldn’t mind betting they might not be so lucky if they persevere with the deal next January. I hasten to add their bravery deserves to have paid off and friends who have been there all weekend have enjoyed the innovation.
It helped that ITV 4 were there as they were at Ascot on Saturday, otherwise I would have missed the best of the two tracks but most importantly the fantastic preliminary skirmish between the two Queen Mother Champion Chase contenders, Shishkin and Energumene, in Saturday’s Clarence House Chase at Ascot.
That Willie Mullins is a clever chap, sending over Energumene and asking Paul Townend to send him on from the start. That tactic surprised a few, expecting the only other serious opponent First Flow to set the pace. Rather shrewdly Luke Harvey suggested First Flow would not be quick enough and was entirely correct. But last year’s winner did figure for much of the middle part of the two miles when all three horses were in close formation.
Turning for home, though, it became a match and, with Energumene making no semblance of an error, racing close to the rails and not losing a millimetre, he was almost metronomic from start to finish.
It would clearly require a champion to beat him and with Shishkin not as fluent as his Irish rival and the occasional jump to the left losing a little ground, surely he had met his Waterloo (or at least Clapham Junction, as the final destination will not occur for another seven weeks). But Nico De Boinville still had time coming to the last to change his whip, settle the horse momentarily and then drive him to pick up and pass his rival with the characteristic flying finish he always contrives.
Meanwhile, the doughty First Flow was picking up the far from negligible third prize of sixteen grand which would have satisfied Kim Bailey even if 18 lengths adrift of the second and 19 from the winner. Amoola Gold, never mentioned before here or in the race either except as an onlooker from the rear as an 80-1 shot for the Skeltons, plotted his way home safely.
It made for a remunerative schooling round and his owners, the Pinks, had the excitement of sharing the paddock with, as Kim said beforehand, “Two of the racing Gods” and hopefully took advantage of the wonderful lunch available in the Ascot Owners’ Suite. After their race it would have been the ideal time for afternoon tea before going home.
I would not be shocked if that old shrewdie Dan hasn’t already sorted out a Festival target for Amoola Gold and his respectful distance adrift the top two and equally First Flow should not lead to a significant alteration to his tasty 151 rating. He’s the first contender on my list for one of the valuable handicaps.
The Clarence House, as befits a Grade 1, was worth £85,000 to the brilliant winner. Nicky Henderson is entitled to believe he has the boxes ticked for the big day but equally Willie Mullins will know more about how possibly to attack Shishkin. If Shishkin’s less secure or, rather, less accurate jumping is ironed out, there is probably no way back for the Irish but maybe a few more jumps upside him might make him uneasy. They need to try something, but whatever they come up with, the re-match promises to be the race of the week.
Yesterday’s Fleur De Lys Chase over two and three-quarter miles and worth £78,000 to the winner despite being ungraded, was another thriller, if one laced with regret as Master Tommytucker, having been smuggled into the race from a long way back by Harry Cobden, suffered a fatal injury when falling heavily at the third-last fence.
At this point Dashel Drasher, having been hounded for the lead by Lieutenant Rocco, now had to contend with Kim Bailey’s Two For Gold and old-timer Bristol De Mai, away from his Haydock comfort zone.
In a finish of swaying fortunes, the last thrust came from Two For Gold and David Bass just edging out the gallant but unfortunate Dashel Drasher and Rex Dingle, with Bristol De Mai just behind. A thriller indeed.
My favourite moment of the weekend was the opening bumper win yesterday of Hughie Morrison’s Our Jester, now a six-year-old, who followed his impressive Ascot bumper win last October with a spectacular eased-down success on the all-weather.
Hughie confessed beforehand that the owners have been keeping this excessive prize as far as bumpers are concerned in mind to brighten their January and he obliged in style under Tom O’Brien. They got £2,700 or so for Ascot but eight times as much – £21k yesterday!
Although a half-brother to the smart bumper but then Flat-race winner Urban Artist and out of bumper winning but then Royal Ascot heroine Cill Rialaig, there is one unique element to his career to date and one that strikes pertinently at my heart.
I was a great proponent of Our Jester’s sire, Garswood, in his early years at stud. Unfortunately, the former high-class sprinter-miler for Richard Fahey has long been disregarded by the never-forgiving breeding industry, consigning him to exile from Cheveley Park to a little-known nursery in France.
Trainers loved his first crop, almost to a man (or woman) big and strong, but they did not carry their physique meaningfully into battle. I mentioned a rarity with Our Jester and indeed it is. He is the only winning bumper horse (of six to try) by Garswood. I suggested to Hughie recently that maybe everyone got it wrong and despite his own speed, he should have been treated as a jumps stallion.
Knowing what his relatives have done, it could easily be that Our Jester might ply his trade later as a flat-racer; his two bumper wins will count as jumps successes but none of the other 15 Garswoods to go jumping, including those five bumper non-winners, have yet to pick up a single National Hunt race. Brave Hughie, as I’ve said before, is some trainer! He trains what he sees, not what people tell him to expect.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Shishkin_ClarenceHouse.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2022-01-24 05:22:522022-01-23 19:38:25Monday Musings: A Rare Weekend Indeed
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