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It has been a couple of years since I wrote some articles on the draw and, with the flat season hitting stride now, it is a good time to revisit the subject, writes Dave Renham. The draw will always have special place in my heart because it was essentially where my racing journey began.
Sprintline 2002: The Effects of the Draw - co-authored by Dave Renham
While at university I became interested in horse racing stats and I soon realised that there was a potential betting edge in focusing on certain sections of the draw at a few specific courses. Back then, in the late 80s and early 90s, the courses and distances with the strongest biases were at Beverley over five furlongs, Thirsk over five and six furlongs (especially on firmer ground), Chester from five to seven furlongs, Lingfield (turf course) five to seven furlongs, and Sandown over five furlongs when the stalls were placed on the far side. The beauty back then for draw punters like myself was that there was a decent edge for those of us who considered ourselves ‘in the know’. I was able to find plenty of betting opportunities that represented good value.
Unfortunately, if predictably, it was not long before draw biases started to be shared in racing articles which were then followed by comprehensive books on the subject. Indeed, I co-authored one of them!
As with many things, when a good source of highlighting value bets is found, within a few years the edge starts to disappear. This is very much a horse racing trait: good ideas have their initial edge because the majority of people are not aware of that value finding approach. As time goes on, however, the betting public and the bookmakers catch up and, as a result, prices tend to contract and the value begins to erode. This has happened to some considerable extent with the draw over recent years.
Using Chester’s five-furlong trip as an example, let us examine what has happened to the prices of the ‘best’ two stall positions over the past several years. The stalls in question are draws 1 and 2, those closest to the inside rail. I am looking here at handicap races with eight or more runners where draw bias tends to be more consistent:
Chester’s tight track has long shown a bias to lower draws and this has generally been well documented and widely understood. However, nowadays your average punter has had more exposure to draw biases than they did twenty years ago which explains the diminishing price pattern. The graph above shows that horses drawn in stall 1 had an average decimal SP price of 6.58 from 2003 to 2007, dropping to 5.19 over the most recent five-year period. Likewise, we have seen the prices of horses drawn in stall 2 dropping from 9.06 to 6.46.
Some statisticians may observe that despite the relatively solid sample sizes average prices can be skewed by an occasional bigger-priced runner. That would certainly be possible, so it make sense to compare the median prices as well. To remind you of your school maths class, median is the middle value when all are ordered from lowest to highest. This gives us another type of average, the findings of which are here:
Once again we see the same pattern: the prices for both draws 1 and 2 have dropped quite significantly over the period of study.
A further measure to illustrate how the draw affects the prices at Chester is if we look at all stall / draw positions from 2017 to 2021 and compare their average prices. We already know that the average for horses drawn in stall 1 has been 5.19 and stall 2 is 6.46. I have graphed the average prices for each stall over 5f at Chester, although due to small sample sizes in higher drawn runners I have combined those drawn in stall 8 or higher:
As we can see, despite a slight ‘blip’ with stalls / draws 6 and 7, the average price increases as the stall position increases (and is thus further away from the favoured inside rail). Looking at these data, we could confidently argue that at Chester over 5f the draw impacts on price more than any other factor.
I briefly want to go back to discuss the price reduction we saw earlier in the lowest two stall positions when comparing 2003-2007 average SP prices with 2017-2021. This has actually not coincided with the draw bias getting stronger; in fact, the draw bias has stayed roughly the same. This can be illustrated when breaking our draw data into three time frames between the years 2003 and 2021. The actual draw positions are also split into three: low third, middle third and high third.
As can be seen, low draws have continued to dominate in each time frame. This is further evidence of the fact that the price reduction is almost certainly down to more punters being aware of how fundamentally important the draw is to the business of finding winners at Chester over this minimum 5f trip. From a betting perspective, therefore, much or all of the value in lower drawn horses has now evaporated. This can be illustrated in terms of percentage returns (ROI%) if backing all horses from the bottom third (low) of the draw over different time frames.
I still find it remarkable that up to 2015 you could have made a blind profit at SP by backing all low drawn horses in 8+ handicaps over five furlongs at Chester. All good things come to an end, however, and that has not been the case in recent years. In the five year period 2016 to 2021, losses accrued were 13.7% of stakes. Ouch.
Appreciating and therefore deploying draw bias is not merely about looking at the performances of different sections of the draw; no, we also have to be acutely aware of how the market adjusts for such factors.
Being able to exploit the draw to one's advantage has also been affected in recent years by racecourse officials using other means of negating any potential bias. One way this can be done is by moving running rails which potentially changes part of the ground over which races take place as well as sometimes subtly changing the race distance by a few yards. The other, more notable, fly in the ointment has been the change in watering systems that most tracks now use. Some 20 or 30 years ago many course watering systems were badly affected by wind speed and direction, and hence certain parts of the track remained drier - and therefore quicker - giving rise to draw biases. Nowadays, though, the equipment has become more sophisticated and the water is spread much more evenly.
I mentioned earlier that Beverley over five furlongs used to be one of the strongest draw biases back in the day, and this can be seen when you look at the data. From 1998 to 2003 in 8+ runner handicaps the low third of the draw housed the winner 63.3% of the time, while the highest third won just 10% during that period. From 2004 to 2009, the strength of this bias appeared to dip a little but the low third still accounted for 53.4% of all the winners (high won a still dismal 15%). However, from 2010 to 2015 the low win percentage dropped to just under 42%, while high had narrowed the gap with 23.1% winners; and, from 2016 to 2021 it dropped to 40.8% low and 26.5% high. Over time, that's quite a big change. Yes, low draws are still favoured but the huge edge that there once was is no more.
Exactly why this has happened I cannot be sure; it is probably down to better watering and maintenance of the track. However, what is interesting is the fact that the prices on the best drawn horses have not changed much. Comparing the 2003 to 2007 segment with 2016 to 2021 here are the average prices for stalls 1 and 2:
Horses drawn in stall 1 have, on average, started at slightly shorter prices in the last five seasons (12 versus 11.42); stall 2 has seen an increase but a modest one when you consider the draw bias is nowhere near as potent these days. The median prices back up the raw average data as the table below shows:
What seems to be happening here therefore is the market at Beverley is still assuming the draw bias is as strong as it was back in the early 2000s. Unlike the Chester market, which has adapted as one might expect, this Beverley market has not: in reality, the odds should on average be higher than they currently are. The bitesize takeaway is that lower draws are generally poor value.
Another thing that has changed markedly in the past few years is the general appreciation that draw bias does not only occur over sprint trips. Pontefract, for example, over a mile and a mile and a quarter, boasts two of the strongest draw biases currently in play. Looking at 8+ runner 1 mile handicaps at Pontefract, it can be seen that this is a case of the betting market now cottoning on to the draw bias. This is in stark contrast to data gathered in 5f handicaps at Beverley.
Let’s compare once again the same two time frames - 2003 to 2007 with 2017 to 2021. Here are the average prices for stalls 1 and 2:
The average price of horses drawn in stall 1 has nearly halved; the figures for horses drawn in stall 2 have also contracted quite noticeably. Once again the median prices correlate strongly:
What this means, therefore, is that although low draws hold a significant edge over 1 mile at Pontefract the current prices on offer are so low on average, that they too are now generally poor value. We can see this in black and white when I share the fact that from 2009 to 2013 backing all low drawn horses at Pontefract over 1 mile in 8+ runner handicaps would have yielded a 13% profit; from 2017 to 2021 this flipped to a 22% loss.
This Ponte pattern mirrors the change we saw earlier in the Chester 5f prices and subsequent poorer value of low drawn runners in recent seasons.
In order to fully make the most of draw bias, or indeed perceived draw bias, it is clear we need to be aware of market factors, not just the raw draw data splits. Let us close with a look at Catterick over six furlongs – again focusing on 8+ runner handicaps. Because this six-furlong trip is contested around a bend there is a perception that lower draws have a slight edge. This is borne out when we compare the combined average prices of the three lowest drawn runners with the three highest drawn runners going back to 2016.
A difference on average of two and a half points. That may not seem much of a difference but over several races it can make a critical difference to our bottom line. During this time frame both sections of the draw have won virtually the same number of races (26 versus 27), implying that there is no bias to lower drawn runners at all. At least partly as a consequence of this perception, backing the three lowest drawn stalls would have produced crippling losses of 45.8% to SP, while blindly supporting the top three stalls would have produced a profit of 10.5%.
One observation when comparing odds over time might legitimately be that field sizes truncating has had a bearing on prices. While that impact should be spread across the full range of stalls anyway, this final chart also helps to imply that field size is likely not the main factor at play here.
It is a little 'busy', but essentially we have two lines which we might expect to be correlated - perceived win chance (expressed as SP) and actual strike rate (expressed as win %). Although the win strike rates jump around a bit, the blue dotted 'trendline' shows no advantage; compare that, however, with the orange trendline for average win odds which rises from low to high.
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The aim of this article is to illustrate the important links between draw position and price, and to highlight the changing nature of some draw biases. Profitable betting is about getting value – well drawn horses only offer us value if the price is right. Also, we need to be aware that 'poorly' drawn horses can also offer value, but again only if the price is right.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/chester_roodee.jpg320830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2022-04-19 07:58:122022-04-19 08:10:00Draw Bias 2022: Part 1
I have a friend who, whenever he sees the name Fast Company against a runner in a race on soft ground or worse, thinks it’s going to win, writes Tony Stafford. More often than not, his inability to back anything much beyond 5-2 prevents his turning intuition to action, thereby preventing his backing a nice long-priced winner.
The fact Fast Company horses do win in extreme conditions exercised my curiosity yesterday morning and I thought I’d better look at the facts. Actually there is little difference between the late stallion’s stats - he died two years ago at a time when his fee at Kildangan Stud was €12,000, the highest of his ten-year career.
From good to firm through all readings to heavy, his winning ratio moved little away from the 23% achieved on heavy ground. What he hasn’t got so far though is a top-class three-year-old colt. Jet Setting, trained by Adrian Keatley, did break the mould with an unexpected defeat of the brilliant Minding in the 2016 Irish 1,000 Guineas, a run that was out of kilter for much of her form. Twice well behind Minding either side of that, she did win a Group 3 easily as an older filly.
Now, though, Fast Company has a Classic contender, and from an unexpected source. In Friday’s opening Listed race on Newcastle’s All-Weather finals day, Checkandchallenge thrust himself into the consciousness with a smooth defeat of a trio of 100-plus rated colts.
Winner of his only previous start at two, when he got up to beat a Karl Burke horse (rated 80 before Friday) he had only inches to spare, but that was after having at least six lengths to make up inside the last furlong.
I was at William’s stable coincidentally last Tuesday when we saw Checkandchallenge quite by luck in the distance. “There’s my Guineas horse”, said William with a laugh, adding that Newcastle on Friday would tell him whether the idea was fatuous or had legs.
Legs it certainly has. With Danny Tudhope at his unobtrusive, business-like best, Checkandchallenge sat at the back of a six-runner field leavened with a couple of three-year-olds who had followed Godolphin’s number two for Saturday week over the line at Newmarket last October.
Coroebus, preferred in some quarters last year to the number one and European champion 2021 juvenile, Noble Trail, won the Autumn Stakes by two lengths from Imperial Fighter with Dubai Poet third. At Newcastle, Checkandchallenge had that pair behind him but in reverse order when the winning margin was slightly less, although Tudhope hardly had to exercise his arm muscles to achieve the result.
Obviously now, after his 4-1 on cakewalk in the Craven Stakes last week, Noble Trail is shorter than ever as the 5-4 market leader, but Coroebus is still next in line at 7-2 ahead of the leading Coolmore / Aidan O’Brien contender Luxembourg, who is a 9-2 chance.
As one very long-tested punter always used to tell me: “you can’t eat value”, but there seems to be a wider disparity in the prices of said Coroebus and Checkandchallenge than the collateral form merits. Ladbrokes and Coral, who work in concert (same firm) for the most part these days, both offer 40-1 about the Rathmoy Stables horse, whereas he is more like 16-1 elsewhere.
Incidentally, when with my Editor I ventured up the steps to meet the trainer in the luxuriously-appointed owners’ room, among the guests enjoying the facilities and watching the day’s racing was Karl Burke.
On Friday morning, when discussing Checkandchallenge with his trainer, Knight ventured: “Karl really likes Aasser <the horse Checkandchallenge beat at Wolverhampton> and thinks he’s much better than 80. That’s why he runs in the handicap at Lingfield today!” He won it comfortably if narrowly at 7-2!
By then Checkandchallenge had already endorsed the previous form and the wonder of it was how little the Lingfield market was affected in the last moments before the race. He’ll go up a few pounds tomorrow while Checkandchallenge, having won both his races, will be eligible for a mark and it won’t be anywhere in the 80’s!
Imperial Fighter, about whom the Sky Sports Racing team laboured to find an excuse to explain the reversal of his form with Dubai Poet, ended 2021 rated 110 and Dubai Poet was 104. Coroebus was 115 and Noble Trail 122. I reckon Checkandchallenge deserves 114 but the officials might go with the “favourite didn’t get a run at a crucial time” get-out and mark Knight’s horse down accordingly.
William Knight spent much of his early career assisting Ed Dunlop at Newmarket before moving to Sussex for ten years, training with success at the late Anne, Lady Herries’, Angmering Park.
When the chance unexpectedly came around two years ago to take over a vacancy left by David Lanigan at Neville Callaghan’s former Rathmoy Stables in the Hamilton Road, he jumped at the opportunity. No wonder! The yard had been totally rebuilt – apart from the trainer’s house – by its new absentee owner.
Last year, his first full season, brought an equal best number of winners and a clear best in terms of prize money. Sir Busker, a large part of the success in recent years, collected $150,000 for finishing fifth in one of the Dubai World Cup feature races last month and the signs already are that better is to come for this upwardly-mobile trainer.
New owners are the life-blood of established trainers and at Newbury on Saturday, Moktasaab, a Shadwell discard picked up for 110,000 guineas last autumn, adorned Harry Redknapp’s colours and won most impressively first time out from a big field.
Moktasaab is due for a big hike and looks a natural for the valuable summer handicaps around ten furlongs, and another of Saturday’s winners is in line for even more drastic attention by the officials.
Last autumn, Ian Williams took the opportunity to strengthen his stable with a few judicious purchases from Arqana and the most dramatic result from the new intake came at Musselburgh in the £100k, better than half of which to the winner, Betway Queen’s Cup over one mile, six furlongs. Ridden chilly at the back, again by Tudhope, Enemy came through in the last two furlongs, eased clear and, while winning by four-and-a-half lengths, ten would be a closer estimate of his superiority.
Williams is one of the more innovative of trainers and Enemy, before he’d broken sweat in the UK was sent as part of the team to Dubai earlier in the year. Originally with John Gosden but transferred midway through his three-year-old season, he joined the Graffard stable which now houses the bulk of the Aga Khan horses.
A consistent strong finisher in his French races, he had been running at just short of ten furlongs there but after Williams secured him for €92k for Tracey Bell and Caroline Lyons, he made the team for Meydan.
Non-country-owning proprietors have the chance to have their horses’ travel paid if they can get two runs on the board during the Carnival and Williams is an ace at contriving that for his inmates. East Asia, Dubai-owned and a money-spinner from nowhere in the UK last year, was lined up for a Group 3 where Godolphin’s Manobo was the stand-out in February, but Williams added Enemy to the field to secure the reimbursement, having given him a warm-up run on arrival.
After East Asia finished well, vastly exceeding anything he’d achieved before to take a lucrative second place behind the favourite, Enemy came through in his wake for a closing fourth. Unfortunately, whereas it is possible to find films of pretty much every horse race around the world, it proved beyond the wit of me to do so.
I just had the trainer’s assurance that if he had not been baulked on the home turn, Enemy would have come out on top in the domestic battle of the 66-1 shots. That resulted in a rise in his mark from 94 to 99, matching East Asia’s new rating.
When I sat down in the buffet at Park Paddocks on Tuesday for the first stage of the Craven Breeze-Up sales, Williams and his shrewd assistant Ben Brookhouse told me they had got 8-1 with four places about Enemy, by which time he had shortened generally to 4-1.
I resolved then to make him my nap for Saturday in the ongoing quest for the William Hill Radio Naps Table prize but deserted him on the morning, idiotically noting a “suspicious drift” back out to 8’s. Ian tried to reassure me. “It won’t start that price!” he asserted. It didn’t, the SP was a ridiculous 11-1.
I guessed the Chester Cup might be the target but yesterday Ian said that he’s always wanted a proper Melbourne Cup challenger and this very sound animal fitted the bill, as he surely does class-wise. With the ability to quicken at the end of a 14-furlong handicap here, the racing requirements of Flemington look assured.
“We had Magic Circle a few years back. He won the Henry II and the Chester Cup but he didn’t have the soundness you need for the race. Hopefully this horse has the full armoury”, said the trainer. You wouldn’t put it past him.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Moktasaab_Newbury_April2022.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2022-04-17 22:50:472022-04-21 09:03:37Monday Musings: Racing Chess via Knight, Queen’s and a Check mate
Inspired by Dave Renham's excellent recent trilogy of articles around trainer micro angles, this week's Gold Nuggets is about empowering anybody curious enough to go searching for such morsels of wagering goodness for themselves. In it, I show you how to do it, where to store your tasty titbits, and offer two examples to get you started.
It's all in the video below, or you can cut to the chase using the handy contents list here:
00:00 Intro
00:34 What is trainer profiling?
04:15 How to avoid back fitting your angles
07:05 Example 1: Paul Midgley
23:00 How to store trainer profiles within Geegeez Gold
28:00 Example 2: Johnny Murtagh
Oh, and when you find something you like, if you're happy to share, please do leave a comment at the bottom of this post.
It was a perfect day for it. Under a warm bright sky lightly doodled with cloud, a fair smattering of racing's hardcore convened on Newmarket's Rowley Mile to greet the awakening flat season. The mood was relaxed, sleepy perhaps, as the overture to the 2022 Classic campaign played out across the Suffolk sward.
I was among the gathering, there - like most - to welcome back a dear old friend. And, more specifically, to catch up with two dear young friends, David Probert and Marco Ghiani. Between them, in their geegeez-liveried breeches they've amassed 826 wins, and counting, in Britain: David with 679 since May 2016 and Marco with 147 since July 2020.
As well as being sponsored by this website, they have another thing in common: both have been crowned Champion Apprentice. David's title was in 2008, jointly with William Buick, with whom he looks set to contest the jockeys' championship this year; Marco's was last year, and followed on from his All Weather Champion Apprentice title, the first rider, we think, to win both awards.
Remarkably, that's not the last of the silverware these two have aggregated, as David holds a 20 winner edge over his nearest rival in the All Weather Jockeys' Championship, which draws to a close this Good Friday at Newcastle. His lead is unassailable and the championship is due reward for one of the hardest-working and most professional pilots in the peloton. Given that this is a cohort defined by its consistent endeavour and professionalism, to stand apart is a difficult task indeed.
The switch to agent Neil Allan has been a major catalyst in David's ascendant profile over the past five years when, in 2016 after his lowest annual total since 2008 (60 winners), he has since come home in front 94, 102, 112, 98 (Covid), and last year a whopping 170 times. With 55 on the board already in 2022, David is poised to challenge his own high score once more.
Asked if such a hectic riding schedule has allowed time to reflect and enjoy, he conceded, "it's been a bit manic, but with only riding one meeting a day you get a little time to yourself. It has sunk in a little bit, and I'm delighted with the achievement. I've usually been thereabouts through the winter, finishing second a couple of times, and I was lucky enough to get a good lead early on, which I've been able to maintain. I don't have to share this one either!"
With fourteen years having passed since his Apprentice title, Probert's latest accolade is testament to that aforementioned graft mentality and to the support of Allan and a growing rolodex of trainers large and small. For a quietly spoken man based away from the racing heartlands of Newmarket and Middleham, it's a brilliant achievement.
Although it feels almost churlish to move on to the turf flat season without due reflection on the fruits of the winter passed, such is the hemispheric nature of the sport. I ask about aspirations for the turf and the response is immediate and unequivocal. "I want to ride better horses. I've got a few chances this year with the likes of Sandrine [as short as 14/1 for the 1000 Guineas], who looks really well and has filled out since last year. She did a good piece of work over a mile the other day so we're very hopeful she'll stay the Guineas trip. She's going to go straight there. And there's a few nice three-year-olds coming through, too."
As we were speaking, the current champion jockey, Oisin Murphy, was part of a convoy including Dominic Ffrench Davis and Gay Kelleway en route to Poland on a mercy mission. His absence from defending his title has been well publicised but the implications in terms of riding plans at Andrew Balding's Kingsclere stables, provider of a sizeable chunk of the champ's total in recent seasons, less so. "Being a part of that yard has always been good and given me plenty of winners. I think this year I'll ride the majority, with some of the nicer horses shared out between myself, Rob [Hornby] and Jason [Watson]. Obviously, things change so we'll just have to play it by ear."
And what about the Flat Jockeys' Championship? "It's a dream. To do that, it's all about doubles and trebles and getting a good book of rides. As long as I can ride some good ones along the way I'll be happy." As short as 8/1 to win the title, it could be more realistic than the average dream.
Away from the All Weather Championships, I was keen to ask David about a few other issues. Firstly, how the new surface at Southwell is riding. "It's getting better all the time", he relates. "At the beginning, I think they maybe didn't have the right equipment for the new tapeta 10 surface and were relying on the old fibresand harrows. It wasn't binding as well as they'd hoped to begin with, so it was riding very 'dead' and tacky compared to Wolverhampton where they have a more established tapeta surface. But now it seems to be riding really well."
Also, how is the weighing room since Covid? "It's changed. We had individual booths during Covid and now the tracks are redeveloping the facilities to be mindful of safeguarding requirements for younger jockeys, and also to provide better changing rooms for the women riders. I think Covid has actually forced these changes through a little bit where these things might not have got done for a few more years, so that's been really positive."
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As we are chatting, a familiar grin emerges from the weighing room. It is the perma-smiling Marco Ghiani in customary happy mode. He exchanges a greeting with David and then sits down to share a few thoughts on his own story so far.
Since joining Stuart Williams as an apprentice in 2019, Marco has finished in front 171 times from 1096 rides at time of writing, a fantastic career win rate of 15.6%. After a winless 2018, albeit from only 11 rides, 2019 saw the Sardinian score 22 times from 131 rides, starting with his first mount of the year, Lunar Deity, at 33/1. 2020 was blighted for everyone by Covid, and apprentice jockeys found opportunities severely restricted. But, thereafter, it's been a relentless tale of success for Marco, capped by that memorable Apprentice Championship double. Now he's riding off level weights with the big boys and relishing the prospect.
This time last year, Marco was about to be crowned Champion All Weather Apprentice. Recalling that period, he says, "It was really good but also very scary, because I only won by four and I was always looking over my shoulder. At that time, I was given 21 days off and Laura [Pearson] took three weeks off, and we still managed to be first and second. If she didn't take the time off maybe she would have been closer still. It felt amazing. I couldn't ride a winner the year before but after Christmas it started really picking up."
As already touched upon, being a jockey offers little time for celebration with the turf season following hard on the heels of its all-weather twin. And, after a quiet enough start, Marco was at it again, racking up 51 winners, 16 clear of the next best. The undisputed highlight was, of course, Real World's incredible near five length win in the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot.
"I didn't expect it", remarks Ghiani, mirroring the view of most punters given the 18/1 at which he was returned. "He was very well handicapped, because I was carrying only eight stone six. He'd been running in Meydan but not showing that much. I rode him the day before in his work, and he was so laid back; and after, he was blowing that hard, I thought he'd probably need the race. But he showed a really good attitude, and obviously progressed all season. He's the best horse I've sat on, so far."
A certain other Italian, now in the veteran stage of his career but riding as well as ever, took over aboard Real World for a Group 2 triumph at Longchamp before a second G2 score, this time in Meydan under Danny Tudhope. Then followed a couple of relatively lacklustre efforts on the dirt in the Saudi Cup and Dubai World Cup. Marco remains hopeful of getting back on top when Real World reverts to British turf action, but he acknowledges that may not now be so easy.
Ascot was Marco's happy place last term and, a couple of months later, he was back there on British Champions' Day to receive his Champion Apprentice title; and this time - with Covid's spectre diminishing - his family were there to witness it.
Also in 2021, Marco's son, Louis, was born, his dad just 22 at the time. "I think it really helped me, to concentrate more on the job rather than going out or doing other things. And he's made me very happy", says the clearly content young father. Asked about plans for a brother or sister for Louis, the smile broadens still further in spite of a firm rebuttal, for the time being at least.
Now sights are fixed firmly forward: he'll be riding freelance this year, but with a retained jockey position for prominent owner Ahmad al Shaikh, whose Khalifa Sat was second in the 2020 Derby. Ghiani is excited about the ride on Hoo Ya Mal in the Craven as the starting point of that new relationship.
Elsewhere, he has been riding out for George Scott, William Knight, Marco Botti, Ed Dunlop, Owen Burrows, Roger Varian and Charlie Hills, as well as old boss and mentor, Stuart Williams. So, he's keeping busy in good company and hoping the opportunities will follow as the season progresses. "This season is about getting more experience, and more contacts, and hopefully winning some more big races."
Both Marco and David are striding boldly into the new season with every chance of it being a memorable one. All of us at geegeez.co.uk wish them the very best of luck.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/David_Marco.jpg320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2022-04-13 14:26:492022-04-13 14:34:14Geegeez Jockeys Looking Forward to the 2022 Flat Season
In the past couple of articles - here and here - I have been researching and sharing some trainer-based systems for flat racing (turf and all weather combined), writes Dave Renham. And in this piece, I have one more group of flat trainer systems to share. Once again, the focus will be on UK racing from Jan 1st 2009 to Dec 31st 2021 with all profits quoted to Betfair Starting Price (less 5% commission).
As a researcher and writer I feel my job is to share facts and figures and, from there, the reader can make an informed choice. Systems do not have to be rigid: we can use them that way of course, but we have options that allow the selection process to be more flexible. With that said, here are the final four of twelve trainer angles for the flat.
I have discussed before that in general the simpler the system the better – this is a case in point. Here are the overall stats for the last 13 seasons:
These are sound figures overall, especially across nearly 3000 qualifiers, and the system has produced returns in excess of 8%. Here are the stats broken down by year. The graph below shows the yearly Return on Investment % to BSP. I am using ROI% as I tend to do with bigger sample sizes:
There have been nine winning years and four losing ones, with three of the losing years back in 2012 or before. The last five years have all returned a profit so there's some good overall consistency, which is backed up when we look at the yearly win strike rates of these 3yos:
In twelve of the 13 years, Beckett has returned a strike rate of 15% and above, and only in 2009 did he not exceed this figure (SR was 14.1% in that year). This gives greater confidence in the base line figures.
Digging a little deeper we can see there is further consistency when we split the results by distance. Dividing into three we get the following:
All distance ranges have made a profit and the returns have been similar at that.
This angle in its raw form will give us a decent number of qualifiers each year. For me it is a case of looking at each qualifier on an individual basis and examining the races they are contesting in more detail. From there I will decide if the horse looks a value bet or not.
Andrew Balding – The 2yo non-handicap system
Andrew Balding has successfully followed in the footsteps of his father Ian starting back in 2003. His strike rate in all races is solid, averaging around the 15% mark, and he is at or near this figure year in, year out. The system I want to share with you relates to his juvenile runners. The rules are:
Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
Trainer – Andrew Balding
2yos in non-handicaps
This system has produced the following results:
That is an absolutely huge profit over the past 13 years. There have been a good number of bets again and here is the annual breakdown data, via Return on Investment (ROI%):
As can be seen from the upward spikes, there have been several extremely profitable seasons, with ten in the black and just three losing years. However, as you might suspect, this system has been blessed by several big-priced winners: in fact, ten winners have returned at a BSP of over 50.0! Clearly, then, a good proportion of the overall profits are down to these runners. The results are definitely a touch skewed.
However, before thinking this may not be the system for you, it should be noted that horses whose industry SP has been 10/1 or shorter have made a profit as well. OK, we are only talking about 9%, but if your shorter priced runners are making a profit, then I think this type of approach has ‘legs’. To reproduce the amazing profits of the past 13 years it will need the odd big-priced winner, but even if these are less frequent, there is a good chance this system will still make a long-term profit.
Finally I want to share the Balding stats in terms of ground conditions (going). He has been profitable on all types of turf going as well as making a profit on the sand:
Clive Cox – The 3yos in 3yo+ races system
Clive Cox has saddled over 850 winners and, last year, saw his highest tally of winners, 79. Indeed, since 2009, if you had backed ALL of his runners in every single race you would have made a profit of 8p in the £. Not bad considering the sample size is in excess of 5,200 runners. Also, six of the last seven years would have produced a blind profit which is impressive.
Clive Cox has done especially well with his three-year-old (3yo) runners since 2009, especially when they are racing in 3yo+ races. The system reads:
Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
Trainer – Clive Cox
3yos in 3yo+ races
Again, there are very few rules which, as I have stated before, is important for the logic to stand up. The overall results show good profits:
Looking at the annual breakdown, the below figures using BSP profit to £1 level stakes:
2009, 2010, 2017 and 2018 were all very profitable and these years are why the system has an overall profit. What is interesting, though, is that Cox has not really had any bad seasons. Even in 2019 and 2020 the losses were very modest considering the raw nature of this system. So, despite four seasons contributing to virtually all the profit margin, this system shouldn’t in my opinion be written off due to inconsistency. Whether it is the type of system for you, only you will know. Again my personal approach would be to highlight qualifiers using the rules and then take a more pragmatic approach by doing further research into the horses in question and their rivals in the highlighted race.
A couple of extra pointers: firstly Cox has done better at shorter distances (less than 1m 1f). Secondly, horses that finished in the first five last time have produced 126 winners from 609 runners (SR 20.7%) showing a profit of £299.44 (ROI +49.2%). Breaking the annual results down for this second subset of runners sees an impressive twelve winning years out of 13. Of course we need to ask, is using a last time out finish in the first five back-fitting? Possibly, but even with extra stipulation this angle still has very few rules. Also, if you had restricted to a finish in the first three last time out, the results would have been similar.
There is no easy answer sometimes to whether an extra rule or two is a good idea to a very simple system. If the additional rule(s) has logic then you could argue it either way; if it is not logical then there is no argument – it is definitely back-fitting!
Mick Appleby – The 3yo handicap system
Mick Appleby started training in the summer of 2010. He had just three winners that year followed by 15 in 2011. From 2012 his stable increased in size and, over the next two seasons (2013 & 2014), he saddled 101 winners. In the last five years, Appleby has saddled at least 90 winners each time.
The system is thus:
Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
Trainer – Mick Appleby
3yos in handicaps
Again a system with very few rules. They have produced some decent returns as we can see in the table below:
This time we have a slightly lower strike rate than the other angles I have shared, but in handicap races this is generally likely to be the case. Here is the annual breakdown.
It's a bit of a roller-coaster, truth be told. 2016 and 2021 were huge years but both had one very big-priced winner which helped the bottom line considerably. In 2016, Mick had a winner that effectively paid 253/1, while in 2021 he had one that paid around 194/1 (prices adjusted to account for commission). This takes the overall profit figure down to £246 which still equates to a tidy profit of 18p in the £.
Regarding outliers, Appleby had only one other winner that paid over 50/1 (it paid 70/1 after commission). Restricting the Oakham trainer's runners to an industry SP price of 14/1 or less, his figures remain good: 156 winners from 919 runners for a profit of £154.52 (ROI +16.8%).
Another point worth sharing is that his record is considerably better in 3yo only handicaps. In such contests, the strike rate increases to 14.2% and profits stand at £655.45 (ROI +94.7%). Overall it would have given a much smoother ride from a yearly perspective.
Most systems that solely use handicap races are likely to fluctuate somewhat and hence come with risk. Thereafter, it is the old risk / reward conundrum. For me, once again this system is a case where I would be noting the qualifiers and undertaking further research to determine whether a horse is a betting opportunity or not.
*
So there you have it, the last four trainer systems from a group of 12. It will be interesting to see how they fare over the next two or three seasons. Time will tell.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/CliveCox.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2022-04-11 15:11:222022-04-11 15:11:22Racing Systems: Flat Trainers, Part 3
It wasn’t necessarily the story we were expecting beforehand but Grand National day always delivers, writes Tony Stafford. Sam Waley-Cohen obviously had his retirement speech ready on Thursday when, partnering Jett - the horse on which he led the 2021 Grand National field a merry dance until tying up half a mile from home - he and everyone else assumed he would make all the running in the Foxhunters’ Chase.
After his failure even to get to the front thanks to an uncooperative James King riding the 2021 winner of the race, Cousin Pascal, Jett went the way of most horses denied their customary lead – he gradually went back through the field before pulling up.
After being quizzed by Luke Harvey at the top of the steps going into the world’s highest weighing room, Sam went over his great career in a few moments before announcing to Luke’s shock, that Saturday would be his last ride.
Jett, formerly with Jim Dreaper (son of Tom, Arkle’s trainer) in Ireland but now playing the family game with Sam’s father Robert at the homestead farm in Warwickshire, had been backed down to a ridiculous price (5-2) considering the demands of any race around these obstacles.
But, of course, he had the Sam factor, six wins in 40 rides around the track I think he said in that great chat. The ability to find gaps where others run into traffic has always been his friend – helped by the fact that, for many of his races, especially in the Foxhunters’, he was meeting riders of a lesser ability.
Now within days of his 40th birthday, too busy in his business life – he runs a dental empire with 3,500 employees – to be anything but (according to dad) a 30-rides-a-year man, he is the potential champion jockey that might have challenged A P and Ruby if he had come from a different family.
Instead, he has been the true embodiment of the old Corinthian tradition and, in Thursday’s race, his nearest equivalent, David Maxwell, went close to winning it, his Cat Tiger just failing to see off the strong finish of the brilliant Gina Andrews on Latenightpass, last year’s runner-up in the race.
The difference? Maxwell uses his own money to buy the horses. Covid must have questioned him as to whether, given he was already in his 40’s, he should continue to shell out the training fees to Paul Nicholls and the rest. Then we saw his face – nothing like an A P or Ruby countenance after a near miss in a big race – beaming in an ecstasy that no other experience could match.
But where Maxwell looks more from the Chris Collins, Dick Saunders, John Thorne and dare I say it the late, lamented (by me anyway) Brod Munro-Wilson riding book, Sam could be another Aidan Coleman as watching his wins up the run-in at Aintree didn’t look too much different on Noble Yeats.
Yes. Finally I’ve got there. A horse bought by Robert Waley-Cohen, not out of the Emmet Mullins stable, but very much to stay with his already upwardly-mobile young trainer. Nephew to Willie, cousin of Danny, whose dad, Tony, of Dawn Run fame, has been such a help to my life.
Emmet Mullins has master-minded, with his pal Paul Byrne, not just the rise of Noble Yeats but many of the gambles such as that with The Shunter at the 2021 Cheltenham Festival that Mullins has delivered.
Byrne was approached to see whether Noble Yeats was available for sale back in February and as he says, “you have to keep turning them over when you can take a profit”. Asked whether he regretted missing out on the £500k winner’s prize, he simply said he was delighted for everyone concerned.
After the race you had to scratch your head. The winner, obviously by the great flat-race multiple Gold Cup scorer, Yeats, was a seven-year-old. I know my memory isn’t what it was – ask the Editor – but I couldn’t remember the last time it happened. Looking through the records, no wonder. The last one was in 1940, years before I was born.
In the last pre-War decade victory for that vintage was almost de rigueur, with Gregalach, Kellsboro Jack and Golden Miller – during his five-time winning spell in the Gold Cup – all great names of jumping, each winning as a seven-year-old. But Bogskar in the first Wartime National, was the last so to do, 82 years ago.
I sat on my son’s sofa to watch the race on Saturday and as soon as I noticed the brown and orange colours – the orange sleeves actually – inching forward I exclaimed: “The best rider over Aintree fences is going to win on his last ride!”
He came there and jumped ahead two out but then he was outjumped at the last by Mark Walsh on the 2021 runner-up, Any Second Now. Surely the top youthful Irish pro would be able to put away the near 40-year-old amateur? But there was no amateur to be seen as he re-rallied Noble Yeats for a memorable win. It cost him a £400 fine for excessive use of the whip and, as he said later, “I’m the first rider ever to be out of pocket for winning the race!” – I’m sure dad will pay the fine if nothing else from his half-million pay-day!
The problem for Waley-Cohen senior is where to find anyone with his son’s ability when he returns for a repeat in 2023. This was only a second win over fences for Noble Yeats, but surely once Ahoy Senor had seen off the best of the staying novices earlier in the week we should have taken notice. Had Noble Yeats not run Lucinda Russell’s top-class young horse close when they met at Wetherby in February?
It was Sam’s second ride on dad’s bright new hope - they had a nice spin round together at Cheltenham last month when after making a little ground out wide he gradually weakened. Quite a nice warm-up for horse and rider you might say.
There was no weakening on Saturday and another measure of the performance was the 20 lengths back to the third, Delta Work, a five-time Grade 1 winner who did best of the seven Gordon Elliott runners.
There was no Fairy Story 2 for Rachael Blackmore on the day the wonderful documentary of her life, broadcast astutely on the morning of her repeat attempt by ITV, answered many of the questions to her talent and toughness. An outgoing, confident girl from the outset, she has transformed into a captivating woman and exceptional rider.
The morning on ITV also offered a computerised prelude to the race. Minella Times, to the shock of the watching Bob Champion fell and, in the race itself, was brought down at Valentine’s, the ninth fence. Snow Leopardess, who won that computer event, never got to her desired place near the front of the huge field and was eventually pulled up.
Red Rum, of course, came out on top in the Champions’ race, just outbattling Arkle – 1970’s course form bettering 1960’s and probably all-time world best. Noble Yeats, with Tiger Roll out of the equation, has the best chance for decades to match Rummy’s record with time on his side.
*
After Cheltenham it took me at least a week to get over what I felt was the immense injustice done to Party Business in the boys’ race. Stopped dead twice he came from miles back to be fifth. Our each-way bet paid off at 25/1 with so many runners but when you are trying to win a naps table that was a blow and a half.
Ian Williams said afterwards he would probably find a nice novice race for him and aim at a big handicap next season. Williams and owner Mark Sheasby, boss of Eventmasters, decided to go again at the last minute and their decision paid a deserved dividend in Saturday’s opening three-miler.
In a forerunner of the big race, two horses came to the last obstacle in close contention, one in the McManus colours later to be denied on Any Second Now, and Party Business. I had reckoned that his troubles probably cost Party Business upwards of 15 lengths, but on Saturday the horse that confronted him had finished a place behind him there.
Ilikedwayurthinkin was now on only 1lb better terms but he ran Party Business a couple of lengths closer than at Prestbury Park. It was great for Sheasby, a client and friend of Williams’ for 20 years, and the thousand guests he had at the track for the big day.
Did I nap him again? Of course not, but Micky Hammond came good at Wolverhampton on Saturday night. Thirteen days left to scour the William Hill Radio Naps table to see whether their assorted experts can catch From The Stables, under whose banner I nominate my pick of the trainer’s reports each day. Given I can select only from our trainers’ horses, it speaks volumes of their skill and vitally, their openness, that FTS is again top of the pops, for the time being at least. 🤞
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/NobleYeats_GrandNational2022.jpg320830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2022-04-11 08:26:522022-04-11 08:27:10Monday Musings: Of Sam’s Fairy Tale Last Hurrah
With orange segment munched and hairdryer treatment still ringing in our bleeding lugholes, we embark chastened from the dressing room for the second half of 'Gold Nuggets: The Flat Season Prep One'.
So, in this concluding part, I go into more depth on Draw Analyser, including the pivotal importance of understanding track layouts when undertaking research; and we look at the potentially highly lucrative game of horse profiling through a worked example. Contents list below, and referenced links are beneath the video.
00:00 Introduction
00:50 Course Guides / Track Layout context
07:30 Draw and Run Style Analysis
20:56 Horse Profiling intro
22:40 How to Profile Horses
27:20 Example: Ugo Gregory
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/goldnuggets.jpg320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2022-04-06 06:15:092022-03-31 18:39:46Gold Nuggets #10: Prepping for the Flat Season, Part 2
In my last piece I looked at trainer based systems in flat racing (turf and all weather combined), writes Dave Renham. I will be revisiting the same idea in this article and in one more that follows next week. As before I have analysed UK data from January 1st 2009 to December 31st 2021 with all profits quoted to Betfair Starting Price.
In terms of the systems discussed here, my plan is to provide some facts and figures from which we may make an informed choice. Systems can be flexible; nobody is ‘forcing’ us into backing every selection!
The first trainer offering this week is based on an idea that I shared last time with a different trainer. Then it was Roger Varian; this time it's...
Saeed Bin Suroor – Six month system
Saeed Bin Suroor somewhat exploded onto the racing scene with the Godolphin outfit in the mid-1990's. He had won four UK trainer titles by 2004 and looked unstoppable. As the years have passed, however, his success in Group races has diminished; nevertheless, he still regularly hits a strike rate of over 20% (all races) in Britain. In fact, since 2009, in ten of the 13 seasons bin Suroor has achieved this. Overall his strike rate is an impressive 22% and backing all his runners to BSP would have yielded a loss of only around 3p in the £.
That is a fairly good base therefore to find a profitable system. Here are the rules I have used:
Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
Trainer – Saeed Bin Suroor
180 days or more since last run
SP 10/1 or less
Let us have a look at how this system has fared since 2009:
These are a very solid set of figures comprising an impressive strike rate, good profits, and a healthy return on investment. His overall results are quite similar to the Roger Varian equivalent angle, but bin Suroor has a slightly stronger bottom line with returns equating to an extra 3p in the £.
For the record, all his horses priced exactly 10/1 lost (17 in total) but I was not going to change the SP cap just to improve his results. As stated in previous articles, back-fitting is to be avoided at all costs if you want to have any confidence in your research.
The chart below shows the annual breakdown using profit figures to £1 level stakes.
bin Suroor has enjoyed ten winning years out of 13 and, importantly, shows excellent year to year consistency. The counter, however, is that two of the last four seasons have ended up in the negative. 2020 was the worst but, as I have mentioned before in other articles, we have to be a bit wary about 2020 data due to COVID and the truncated flat season that ensued. 2018 saw the Godolphin trainer hit the post several times including a spell when he had four seconds from four starters so he could easily have posted a small profit that year. He certainly bounced back in 2021 producing returns of 62p in the £.
Another barometer of consistency is when we look at his results across different classes. He has made a profit at every single level:
His Class 2 results are weaker, but he is still in profit; only two runners raced in Class 6 company but he still has sneaked into profit there, too. Saeed Bin Suroor is still a trainer to have on your side and this system looks very promising.
Roger Charlton (& Harry Charlton) – 2yo system
Roger Charlton trains in my neck of the woods in Wiltshire and has enjoyed good success since he started in 1990. He served his apprenticeship under Jeremy Tree for 12 years. That was a stable that contained such greats as Rainbow Quest and Danehill. Indeed, in Charlton's first season in charge in 1990, he won the French Derby with Sanglamore and, less than a week later, he had landed the English Derby with Quest For Fame. It's only downhill from there! Nowadays, he is formally assisted by his son Harry, the pair sharing the licence.
When you look at Charlton’s overall record (all UK races) going back to 2009 he has been the model of consistency.
His strike rate has been above 16% in all but two years and, even then, the lower returns were still a highly acceptable 14.6% and 15.6%.
The Charlton stable has done particularly well with their 2yos in non-handicaps. Hence the system to share reads:
1. Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
2. Trainer – Roger Charlton
3. 2yos in non-handicaps
Here are the system results:
An impressive set of numbers here, with returns close to 30p in the £, and a solid strike rate considering they are juveniles. Onto the yearly breakdown by profit / loss to £1 level stakes at BSP:
There have effectively been four break-even years, two losing and seven winning years. 2017 produced just over 40% of the overall profits but even without this outlier year the figures look solid. Crucially, there have been no really bad years at all, his worst - in 2016 - losing just £6.29 to £1 level stakes.
When looking at Charlton runners in more detail, the best returns have come from debutants and those having their second career start. These runners have also made up nearly 80% of all his starters, suggesting the yard does not over-race their young horses. Males and females have both done well; males have returned 33p in the £, females 25p in the £.
If you wanted to tweak the system to give a higher strike rate and even greater consistency then you may wish to consider a price cap. As we know price caps can be tricky to implement at times, but Charlton's 2yo non-handicap starters sent off 3/1 or shorter have produced the following results:
These are similar returns to the original system but provide players with a slightly smoother ride due to the much improved strike rate. Also, there are no big priced winners skewing the results.
Working with a higher price cap, then if we use the same one as the Bin Suroor and Varian systems, 10/1 or less, the results still look good:
The Charlton system in its raw form is not one I would use blindly as personally my betting portfolio does not involve many two-year-old bets. However, I would not put anyone off using it, with or without price cap considerations.
Charlie Appleby – 3yo system
Charlie Appleby is, like Saeed bin Suroor, a trainer who operates under the Godolphin flag. He was appointed by the stable in July 2013 so the data crunched starts from then rather than 2009. His strike rate in ALL races has been an impressive 24% and in four of the last five years that win rate has exceeded 28%. The system I wish to share is as simple as it gets:
1. Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
2. Trainer – Charlie Appleby
3. 3yos
There have been nearly 1500 qualifiers as you can see below. This is a good chunk of data:
This system has produced very modest returns on investment of just under 3p in the £ but, considering its simplicity and Appleby's high profile, a blind profit is still mightily impressive. The graph below shows the yearly Return on Investment % to BSP. I am using ROI% due to the bigger sample size:
There have been five winning years and four losing losing ones. The overall performance is stronger since 2016, which is a positive (profit of £110.16 and returns of 13p in the £ from 2016 to 2021). Also there have been no really big-priced winners that have skewed the stats.
I see this system as an excellent starting point, with system qualifiers worth further scrutiny from a form reading perspective. Here are a few more stats / facts about Appleby three-year-olds that may help with that process:
1. Appleby has three jockeys he uses regularly – William Buick, James Doyle and Adam Kirby. Two of the three have made blind profits as the table below shows:
Combining the three would have given a profit of £121.04 with returns close to 14p in the £. Decent A/E values for all three riders add to confidence, so when one of these jockeys is booked I would see it as a plus.
2. I touched briefly on the fact he had no big priced winners previously. To give the meat on the bones, any horse that started bigger than 16/1 SP has lost. Charlie Appleby is 0 from 59 with such horses.
3. His male runners have outperformed female runners from a strike rate and profit perspective: a win strike rate of 26.2% for males and 21.4% for females, with correlating placed strike rates of 51.6% for males and 42.5% for females. Looking at returns we see males making a profit of 8p for every £ bet, whereas females have lost just over 12p in the £.
4. Horses that were odds on last time out have performed very well with 56 wins from 168 runners (SR 33.3%) for a profit of £47.90 (ROI +28.5%).
Sir Mark Prescott – Low Grade 3yo handicap system
Sir Mark Prescott is still going strong aged 74, but that might mean any Prescott system is on borrowed time. The wily baronet has always done well with 3yos in handicaps and this system exploits that fact. Sir Mark has made a decent overall profit with ALL 3yo handicappers since 2009 (£198.89 to £1 level stakes with an ROI of 15.1%), but he seems to excel when tackling lower class races. Hence the system reads:
1. Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
2. Trainer – Sir Mark Prescott
3. 3yo's in handicap races
4. Class 6 or 7 (NB. Just one qualifying Class 7 race, so essentially Class 6)
The results are shown in the table:
Those are some very strong looking figures, with a win rate close to 1 in 3 and returns of a whopping 41p in the £. The annual breakdown by profit to £1 level stakes to BSP is shown below:
There have been nine winning years, one break even (a 51p profit in 2019), and three losing years with those three having each seen only very small losses (less than £6 each time). Last year (2021) saw a small reverse, but Prescott had several near misses including placed runners at BSP prices of 12.7, 22.0, 15.0 and 12.5. If just one of those had won it would have been another profitable year.
The consistency can also be seen when we break the results into time of year. Splitting the years into quarters we get:
There were not many qualifiers in the first three months of the year but still a good profit and a remarkable ROI. Indeed, the numbers are very solid across the board with positive A/E values as well. All in all I do not think there is any need to modify this system - it's not broken, so let's not try to fix it - although, again, exactly if/how you deploy it comes down to personal preference.
*
So, four more systems for your consideration. I'll have another quartet to share next week in the final part of this mini-series. If there are any trainer-based systems you would like me to look into, do leave a comment below.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/CharlieAppleby_Adayar_AdamKirby_Derby.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2022-04-05 04:46:472022-04-01 10:08:37Racing Systems: Flat Trainers, Part 2
He could hardly have stage-managed it any better, writes Tony Stafford. Trainer Charlie Longsdon faces five days of anxiety and excitement as he prepares his grey mare, Snow Leopardess, to attempt what will be a doubly unique achievement in Saturday’s Randox Grand National.
Not only is the ten-year-old a mare and a grey to boot, but also uniquely one that has had a foal which has now reached racing age.
For the record – repeating (and I hope accurately) facts I trotted out when the aim was mooted a few weeks back – there have been 13 winning mares of Liverpool’s great race, but only two, Sheila’s Cottage (1948) and Nickel Coin three years later, in the past 120 years.
Three grey horses have won the race in its 183-year history since Lottery won the inaugural race in 1839. The Lamb in 1868 and 1871, Nicolaus Silver in 1961, and Paul Nicholls’ Neptune Collonges ten years ago, were the trio.
As far as I know none of the first 11 winners taking us up to 1902 had a foal, but in those days of milk-cart pullers turning up to have a go round the fences having walked miles to get there, who can say?
Snow Leopardess fulfils all three requirements and can also boast a win around the Aintree fences – in the Becher Chase, the middle of three unblemished appearances this season. And as if the portents hadn’t been positive already, having been some way out of the top 40 before her last win at Exeter, withdrawals mean she is safely in at number 38.
Longsdon sent her to that mares’ Listed race to gain the few extra pounds he reckoned it would take to guarantee her place in the field, but the jumps handicapper was unimpressed, leaving her unchanged on 145 after a ten-length romp. The Grand National gets special treatment and she resides there 1lb higher and, in these days of blanket Irish entries, it was just as well.
Looking at the race I think we should deal not much lower than the top 40 as it would take an idiot to neglect the opportunity to run for half a million sterling on a track presently officially good to soft and with a few showers to top it up. So little used, Aintree’s Grand National course invariably offers a sympathetic surface.
When the dry spell was continuing, the prospect of fast ground on Saturday was a worry for Longsdon, but if it stays as advertised she should be fine. Also, she is ideally placed, right at the bottom of the weights and therefore not in danger from a lightweight taking advantage of a hefty weight allowance.
The make-up of the race is interesting. Looking at the top 40 horses, 24 are trained in Ireland and 16 in the UK. Gordon Elliott (or rather owner Michael O’Leary) has declined to allow Tiger Roll to attempt the Red Rum-equalling third win, but they do have Delta Work, the horse that beat him in that thrilling battle in last month’s Cheltenham Foxhunters, to carry the maroon and white colours.
Delta Work, 8-1 equal-favourite at this stage with compatriot Any Second Now (Ted Walsh/J P McManus) and Snow Leopardess, is one of eight Elliott horses, all in the top 22, which can represent the trainer.
While he is no longer pilloried for the events which led to a suspension last year, he must have found Cheltenham an ordeal as he watched his great rival and obvious role model Willie Mullins winning ten races at the Festival. Mullins has a low-key trio (among the top 40) in on Saturday of which Burrows Saint looks his best chance.
If he had not run his last race, when beaten miles in third behind close contenders Any Second Now and Elliott’s Escaria Ten, Burrows Saint would surely have been higher in the market especially as he started favourite that day. He remains one under the radar and everyone knows Mullins’ capability of pulling rabbits out of hats.
It’s always fun to hear trainers and owners moaning about their horses’ treatment at the Grand National weights unveiling and Henry De Bromhead duly joined that group in complaining that Minella Times, last year’s record-breaking winner under Rachael Blackmore, had too much weight.
Pointing to this year’s two runs – a pulled up and then a fall as evidence – he reckoned he should not have been higher than when running in those two races. I am 100% behind the handicapper and 2lb for the long-established Aintree factor looks fair enough for me, especially remembering how easily he won last year’s race for J P McManus.
There is no incentive for trainers guaranteed to get their horses in the race to over-exert them in the season leading up to it, but I think Colin Tizzard deserves credit for the attacking policy he has pursued with Fiddlerontheroof, runner-up giving away plenty of weight in last November’s Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury.
The Fiddler then went to Ascot for an excellent second to Fortescue in the Swinley Chase attempting to concede 17lb. He jumped the last in front of Henry Daly’s horse and subsequent revelation that he lost a shoe possibly enhances the merit of the performance.
Sometimes one modest run is enough to convince the betting public that a horse’s improvement may have come to an end. When Chatham Street Lad toiled home 22 and again 22 lengths third behind A Plus Tard and Royale Pagaille in the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November, he immediately dropped out of the subconscious.
But Michael Winters, his trainer, is a dab hand at the big races and it is probably wise to remember the ease of his runaway Cheltenham win in December 2020 and last May’s equally impressive victory in a Graded chase at Limerick.
A combination of Kauto Star and Denman would not have stopped A Plus Tard that day, nor indeed at Cheltenham last month when he was the most impressive of Gold Cup winners. Chatham Street Lad is my best outsider.
De Bromhead got A Plus Tard back to that peak – and what a peak! - at the right time for Cheltenham after a hit-and-miss campaign for much of the winter, and now you have to think Minella Times will have been precisely and single-mindedly aimed at this second shot. Repeat wins are less infrequent than you might think, and he could easily do it again. Imagine the noise if they did. Champion Hurdle, Gold Cup and another Grand National for Rachael in the space of three weeks? It could easily happen.
Apologies for another truncated offering – trouble getting my Internet sorted! – but I must end with a salute to Christian Williams and his achievement in supplying the first two in the Scottish Grand National last weekend.
His nine-year-old mare, Win My Wings, was held up a long way back for much of the four miles at Ayr but came through strongly in the straight. Leading halfway down she moved easily into the lead and scooted clear of stable-mate Kitty’s Light in a show of complete control.
Williams can now be sure she will be raised enough to qualify rating-wise for next year’s Grand National proper – her 140 will be raised at least to 150 unless the official was looking elsewhere on Saturday.
In the meantime a mare one year senior to her will have her chance to make the headlines and history. I hope Snow Leopardess can add a final accolade to her already impressive tally of achievement and win the Grand National. Chatham Street Lad, Fiddlerontheroof and Minella Times complete my four for the exotics. Good luck to everyone and let’s hope they all come home safe and sound.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/SnowLeopardess_Aintree2022.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2022-04-04 09:11:592022-04-04 09:11:59Monday Musings: Having a mare for the National
After a fortnight off, it's the return of Gold Nuggets, a (usually) weekly vidcast where I try to bring the Geegeez Gold toolkit to life for you, so that you can go and do some good (or gooder!) stuff for yourselves.
In this week's instalment, I reveal the reports I use to know more at the start of the flat turf season; and I also introduce Draw Analyser as a research tool that can put you miles in front of your fellow (non-geegeez) bettors. Next week, I'll dig further into that tool as well as illustrating some ways to profile individual horses for profit. That's for the future, but now let's get to today's Gold Nuggets...
Featuring:
00:00 Intro 01:28 Reports overview 02:36 The Shortlist 05:10 Trainer Jockey Combo Report 06:52 Report Angles [See also first link below] 08:35 Trainer Statistics 14 Day view 13:55 Trainer 1st Handicap Start 16:10 Trainer Change Report 18:40 Trainer 2yo 1st Start Report 21:40 Draw Analyser [See also second link below]
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/goldnuggets.jpg320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2022-03-30 17:53:402022-03-30 17:53:40Gold Nuggets #9: Prepping for the Flat Season, Part 1
Last week, I switched focus to flat racing (turf and all weather combined) and, as we’re now officially into the flat season, I am sticking again to the flat with attention switching to trainer based systems, writes Dave Renham.
As with the first five articles in this series I am going to look over the long term, studying UK data from Jan 1st 2009 to Dec 31st 2021 with all profits quoted to Betfair Starting Price.
As we know, systems are not for everyone, and I am not a system user per se. However, I do have a group of systems that highlight horses I will then go on to study in more detail: systems do not have to be totally rigid unless you want them to be.
As I have stated before when sharing these racing systems I am not advocating that you use some of them, or all of them; rather, the plan is to give you the facts and figures in order to make an informed choice. So let’s get cracking:
Keith Dalgleish – Second Career start system
Keith Dalgleish started training in 2011 in South Lanarkshire. His career strike rate stands at 12% which is very respectable and last year (2021) was his best year numerically with 93 winners in total. It was also his most profitable; backing all Dalgleish runners on the flat in 2021 would have yielded a return of over 26p in the £.
Looking at his record, he has done very well with horses having their second ever career run. Hence this system reads very simply:
Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
Trainer – Keith Dalgleish
Second career start
Let us have a look at the raw system results:
These are solid looking results – good profit from an excellent ROI. The strike rate of nearly 17% is sound considering the type of horse we are talking about: the average win strike rate for all second time starters (all trainers) is around 12%.
Let's graph the annual breakdowns and as we are looking at relatively small yearly samples I have used profit figures to £1 level stakes. As Dalgleish started training in 2011, the data set starts from there rather than 2009:
As can be seen, Dalgleish's results were not so good in the two of the first three years, but I think we can forgive this as it was the early days of his training career. From 2014 onwards his runners having their second career start have done very well. Overall they've recorded seven winning years and four losing ones; (six out of the last eight were profitable). 2017 looks poor but he had runner up finishes that year at BSP prices of 20.45, 14.50 and 12.74. Two of these were beaten very narrowly (a head and half a length) and if a couple had managed to win, the year would have been around the breakeven point. We have to appreciate that regardless of bottom line results, luck, good or bad, can play a significant part in whether we make a profit or a loss.
There is good news that these results have not been badly skewed by numerous big priced winners; just two winners over 30.0 on Betfair and none over 50.0. Indeed, if we focus on his runners whose BSP was under 30.0 results actually are even better:
That focus brings the strike rate up nicely to nearly a win from every four runners, and returns close to 73p in the £. The yearly breakdown also improves to eight winning years and three losing ones.
As with any system involving very unexposed horses, we are playing with fire a bit. However, Dalgleish has been profitable with both his 2yos and 3yos under this system (N.B. he has had just four qualifiers aged 4 or older, one of which won). The majority of his qualifiers have been 2yos, but the 66 3yo qualifiers produced half of the profits.
So is this a system to use? Quite possibly. Obviously we are reliant on the trainer having a 2yo crop each year of similar ability to what he has had in the past as they will make up about 75% of all system qualifiers, but consistency in that regard hasn't been too much of an issue to date.
Some additional points to note. Dalgleish's female runners have been particularly successful. Also, as highlighted in this Keith Dalgleish trainer profile, his best results have come at tracks in the north of England and in Scotland. He had 31 qualifiers that raced in the midlands or further south and just two have won.
Hugo Palmer – 2 & 3yos that made debut at Newmarket
This is a completely different system from anything I have shared before. This is because the same horse could become a qualifier several times in different races using this system. Essentially if the horse made their debut at Newmarket, you back it on any subsequent start as a 2yo or 3yo. That might be one or two runs, it could be ten, and it could be none.
I have also added a price cap which as we know is something we cannot always be 100% sure of when betting pre-race, especially if the early price of the horse is around the figure quoted (in this case an industry SP of 10/1). For the record a BSP price cap of 15.0 would give us virtually the same results and bottom line. The good thing about this price cap is that we know the overall figures are not skewed by any huge priced winners.
Onto the system results now:
Considering the system is backing all Newmarket debutants on all of their subsequent starts up to and including the age of three, these figures look very sound. For me personally, the strike rate of over 30% is the most impressive part. Good strike rates are not a pre-requisite for a good system, but in general the higher the hit rate the more likely it is to be consistent.
I dug a bit deeper by looking to see how many individual horses qualified under this system – 57 horses did and of those 43 managed at least one win. This means 75% of all runners that started won at least once after their Newmarket debut before reaching the age of 4. That is a very high percentage (average for all trainers is 59%), which I guess explains the system’s apparent success.
Onto the yearly breakdown now – I am using profit figures to £1 level stakes again due to the relative small number of qualifiers each year. The data shared, as with Dalgleish, only goes back to 2011, as that is when Palmer started training, too:
Despite the relatively small samples for each year, Palmer has secured profits in eight of the years, had two losing years and one that broke even. When you look at the annual strike rates, they too have been impressive:
We can ignore 2013 as he only had two qualifiers but every other year the strike rate has exceeded 20% while in nine of the 11 years the strike rate has been 25% or higher.
This is definitely an unusual system as normally the system rules creates one bet for one horse. As stated earlier, with this system the same horse can be bet several times. In general, horses that make their debut at Newmarket are of a good level of ability and in Hugo Palmer’s case they certainly seem to run well early in their careers.
The one fly in the ointment with this system is that Palmer has agreed to train for ex-footballer Michael Owen at his Manor House Stables in Cheshire. That, of course, is a lot further from Newmarket than his former Kremlin House yard on the Snailwell Road, actually in Newmarket!
Paul Midgley – Finished in first two LTO system
Paul Midgley is definitely not a household name but in previous research I have done he is a trainer who I think is underrated. This system is very simple as the title suggests:
Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
Trainer – Paul Midgley
Finished 1st or 2nd LTO
The overall results going back to 2009 are as follows:
The results are very good considering the simplicity of the system, and the strike rate is about what you would expect for this type of runner. Returns of 16p in the £ are thoroughly acceptable, too. Let’s check the annual figures now to £1 level stakes at BSP:
A small loss in 2009 was followed by a bigger reverse in 2010 but, since then, eight years of profit (albeit two only just) and three losing years. Two very good years (2012 and 2018) produced the lion’s share of the overall profits and, as with many systems, results fluctuate somewhat from year to year. Nothing is ever going to be a smooth line with system angles and this is a good example of the peaks and troughs. The key is that the peaks should Himalayan while the troughs are only small gullies!
In its raw form this not a system I would consider for backing all runners, but I would take a note of any qualifier before undertaking some further race analysis.
It is also worth sharing the fact that much bigger priced runners have performed poorly. Those with an industry SP of 20/1 or bigger have produced just one winner from 67, creating losses of £30.83 (ROI -46.0%). On the plus side this means the raw system has not been skewed in the least by big priced winners; quite the opposite in fact.
With horses that have run well last time out I am personally a fan of that good run being relatively recent – within around three weeks is normally my personal cut off point on the flat. Hence I wanted to see what difference, if any, that type of additional rule would make to the Midgley results.
Here are the findings of Midgley horses that finished LTO 1st or 2nd racing again within 3 weeks:
The strike rate has edged up and although profits are down in absolute terms by about £6 there would have been 276 fewer qualifiers compared to original system. Consequently, returns have improved from 16p to 23p in the £. In terms of annual returns, these have smoothed out a bit, too, as the table below shows:
That's ten winning years (although three were essentially break-even) and three losing years. Restricting selections to those which ran within the last three weeks looks a plausible and logical addition to the system, assuming one is happy that this is not significant back-fitting: your call. This system has possibilities for sure.
Roger Varian – Six month system
Roger Varian was assistant trainer to Michael Jarvis for a decade before taking over the reins in 2011 (making him the third trainer in this article to have started in that year). He has been a very consistent trainer and seems able to get runners fit regardless of time off the track. Here is the Roger Varian system:
Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
Trainer - Roger Varian
Six months (180 days) or more since last run
SP 10/1 or less
Some trainers are adept at getting their runners fit after a long break and Roger Varian certainly falls into that category. I have included the same price cap as I used earlier for the Hugo Palmer system. This attempts to avoid the inevitable price cap ‘back-fit’ trap that many system punters fall into; sticking to the same price cap is the way to go.
Onto the results for this system (2011-2021):
The table shows that roughly three in every ten qualifiers have won which, considering the time off the track, is impressive. Here is the annual breakdown:
It's a fairly consistent set of results with eight winning years and three losing ones. Each losing year lost less than a tenner at £1 stakes, the worst being £8.13. Further signs of consistency can be found when we look at a breakdown of qualifiers by age:
Each age group can boast a profit, strike rates are consistently good to outstanding, and all A/E values are at 1 or higher. This system looks one to follow and, at the time of writing, Varian has had seven qualifiers in 2022, two of which have won at BSP prices of 2.29 and 9.92, and a further three of which ran second, boosting the overall profits by a further few quid.
*
And so we come to end of this latest piece, the first of three focusing on flat trainer system angles. Hopefully you have found a few useful snippets above, and next time I’ll be digging under the headline numbers of four more flat trainers.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/rogervarian.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2022-03-29 16:13:492022-03-30 08:12:26Racing Systems: Flat Trainers, Part 1
As late March heralds longer days and flat racing fiestas in the coming weeks and months, those of us with a Cheltenham Festival-sized gap in our hearts and minds (and, perhaps, wallets) are already projecting wistfully forward to fifty weeks hence and the 2023 Cleeve Hill jamboree. If that sounds about 85% of the way along the tragic-desperate continuum, it is mitigated by the fact that such far-reaching forward-looking is not mutually exclusive with more impending matters on the level.
The focus of what follows, then, is a last lingering look back - and forward - with the aim of trying to isolate an ante post ticket (or two) whose value might subsequently be enhanced. No sooner had the Festival winners been hosed down than odds for possible return targets were chalked up; most such offers will look pretty thin when the time comes but some will not. Emboldened as I am always by the prospect of a punt at a price, I've looked back at the last decade to see if there were any clues from the previous year's spring festivals that we ought to have heeded. If that doesn't yet make sense, it will do soon enough.
Where next for the Champion Bumper winner?
I'll start with a 'what happened next' for those Cheltenham Festival winners that typically didn't have a previous spring campaign under their belt, the ones emerging from the Champion Bumper.
The first thing to say is that five of the prior nine Champion Bumper winners did not even get to the following year's Cheltenham Festival. The second, an aside, is to apologise for references to the Albert Bartlett as 'Spuds': it's a lazy shorthand so forgive me, please.
Facile Vega, the very good winner of this year's Champion Bumper, is no bigger than 3/1 for next year's Supreme; that looks ungenerous given only one of the previous nine winners even contested that race, Ballyandy finishing fourth in 2016 - as a 3/1 chance. That ten year time span is more unhelpful than disingenuous in that, a year earlier than the snapshot, in 2012, Champagne Fever completed part two of the Bumper-Supreme double.
More interesting, if indeed anything is interesting when fishing for patterns (which may or may not be mirages) in shallow pools, is that two of the previous three Champion Bumper winners - Envoi Allen and Sir Gerhard - went on to win the Ballymore as odds on shots. Facile Vega is a top-priced 6/1 for that longer novice hurdle and, if there's a bet here, that must be it. After all, his mum, Quevega, couldn't win in Graded company at two miles (from two tries, 3rd and 9th) but was almost unbeatable at two-and-a-half and three; and sire Walk In The Park's best strike rate is comfortably at around two and a half miles.
In the slightly longer grass, a few of the placed horses from the Festival flat race have won the opener twelve months later, so perhaps a second glance at American Mike, 14/1 in a place, is merited. (I believe James's Gate, as he's owned by the owners of Ballymore Properties, will go to that race so he, too, might figure in considerations if only because we know what his target will be, all other things being equal).
Observations:
Champion Bumper to Supreme is generally not a path trodden by winners of the former, but to the Ballymore has been a recent 'thing'. 6/1 about Facile Vega for the Ballymore might look too big ifhe can actually get to next year's meeting.
Placed horses in the Champion Bumper have a fair record in winning the Supreme. American Mike's 14/1 quote in a place likely won't last but there is general 12's available.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle
For all races that follow there is typically at least one season's previous form with which to work; as such, the format laid out for the Supreme will be replicated for all of the remaining Festival Grade 1's. Here's how it looks:
We can now see Champagne Fever in the bottom row of the table - see, I told you I wasn't being 'convenient'! We can also see that Appreciate It (and we cannot see that in 2011 Al Ferof) won the Supreme having been second in the Champion Bumper. But what is most striking if you're desperate to bet this race now is that almost none of the Supreme winners in the past decade were on the mainstream radar a year earlier.
This table is, at least partially, the inverse of the Champion Bumper bit above and, as such, not much else needs saying, except tread very carefully: we may not have even heard of next year's Supreme winner yet!
Observations: We quite possibly do not even know of the existence of next year's Supreme winner right now. American Mike is possibly the one for pin-stickers with a chance to replicate two recent Champion Bumper runners up who scored in the Supreme.
Ballymore Novices' Hurdle
The intermediate distance Grade 1 novice hurdle and usually a classy affair, at the front end at least.
On top of the already made point about the pair of Champion Bumper winners who rocked up here as shorties a year later and got it done, the key takeaway is to keep a close eye on winning Irish bumper favourites away from the Festival spotlight. The thinking - and I do appreciate how tenuous some of this stuff is - is that they're favoured because of a level of ability already demonstrated, either at home or on the track; and they've been brought along relatively steadily out of the glare of wider perception. Related, perhaps, is that four of the five to fit this blueprint had also already won a point to point.
Both Yorkhill and Bob Olinger emerged from the same Gowran Park bumper won this year by Kalanisi Star. He won easily but recorded a lesser rating and is trained by the unfashionable (though eminently capable) Oliver McKiernan. Similarly, City Island (a winner for the race sponsors) and Faugheen both progressed from Punchestown's late May meeting, so that's a fixture to keep onside.
Observations:
Aside from maybe betting Facile Vega for the 2023 Ballymore, keep an eye on well-touted winners of spring bumpers in Ireland outside of the Punchestown Festival, especially if they already have a point to point verdict on their scorecard.
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
The potato race, as it is affectionately - and effectively, because who knew Albert Bartlett was a producer of starchy tubers beforehand? - known, is the staying division for novice hurdlers. Here's what recent AB victors were doing a year or so prior.
It may be more correct to say, here's what recent AB victors were not doing a year or so prior. They were not running in the Champion Bumper (though Briar Hill fell as 2/1 favourite for this in 2013) and they were not running in the Aintree bumpers. They might, however, have been on the podium in one of the non-Grade 1 National Hunt Flat races at the Punchestown Festival; and all the more interesting if they'd recently changed hands having won a point to point.
That ostensibly (and quite possibly actually) contrived route to potato riches was trodden by all of 33/1 Very Wood, 50/1 Minella Indo, and 5/1 Monkfish since 2014. A fourth winner in the sample, 33/1 Kilbricken Storm, also emerged as a point winner the previous spring. That's hardly surprising considering that, firstly, the vast majority of point to points are run at three miles, the same range as the Albert Bartlett; and, secondly, maiden races between the flags usually place a premium on jumping ability in young horses.
Observation:
Have a look at those emerging from points to make the frame in non-Grade 1 Punchestown Festival bumpers. They'll be a price, though history suggests they might be a bigger price on the day next March!
Champion Hurdle
After some middling attempts to find order in perfect randomness around the novice hurdle cohort, we move to the relative structure of the two mile Championship hurdle race, aptly known as the Champion Hurdle.
The column upon which to focus attention here is 'Prev Cheltenham' - it will not be a surprise that nine of the last ten Champion Hurdle winners were present a year earlier, nor particularly that they ran - generally placed - in a mixture of the novice hurdles, Mares' Hurdle and Champion Hurdle itself.
When contemplating such folly as an ante post bet a year out it is important to think about the shape of the race, in terms of how much is known already and how much is still to emerge. In the novice events, next to nothing is known at this stage while in the Champion Hurdle we probably have the vast majority of intel available, barring the maintenance of form and fitness.
What I am trying to say is that asking for both Honeysuckle and Constitution Hill to either regress materially or produce sick notes is a big request. Of the other potentials suggested by previous spring form, none appeal as capable of getting even much beyond the level of an Epatante or a Zanahiyr, let alone the champ and the champ elect. Of course, stuff happens, but we're already going out on more limbs than a millipede has in its possession and this, friends, is a bridge too far.
Marie's Rock has next to no chance in the Champion Hurdle, likewise the aforementioned Champion placed horses and, from the novice ranks, only Sir Gerhard looks a credible threat. He's 8/1 and he ain't sufficiently credible to legitimise that as an exciting punt. State Man and Vauban are unexposed sorts but we're back to Katchit in 2008 for the previous Triumph Hurdle winner to double up, and no horse has emerged from a handicap to win the big one a year later; Katchit, it should be added, had nothing of the immensity of Honeysuckle or Constitution Hill in his way.
Observation:
Not one to be getting too far ahead of ourselves about. Two seriously talented, career unbeaten, including in multiple Grade 1, horses - a race to hope they both show up for, and savour when they do. They're probably fair enough prices and there are more interesting (it's all relative) wagering options elsewhere.
Stayers' Hurdle
The Stayers' Hurdle, a Championship (nominally, at least) three-miler, is one of the more inscrutable - or less scrutable - open races at Le Fez. Its roll of honour reads more 'who?' than who's who, and there is very little in the previous spring Festival form from which to piece together even the most circumstantial of cases. And yes, I do appreciate that hasn't stopped me above and below this segment!
Podium finishers in the staying novice races at Aintree - the Sefton - and Punchestown - Irish Mirror - have provided four winners since 2015, and that's the best I have.
Observation:
This is akin to trying to sculpt water.
Arkle Challenge Trophy
And so to the Grade 1 steeplechases, the first of which is the Arkle, a two mile test of speed and jumpcraft (not a word, should be). In the last ten years, Willie's won four and Nicky has won three. That's as good a starting point as any.
Three of that Hendo/Mullins septet won the Supreme while the third Seven Barrows scorer won the Ballymore. The only beaten horse from a Festival novice hurdle to win the Arkle twelve months on in the last ten years was Duc Des Genievres and I'm still unable to explain how that happened.
We also know stuff like five-year-olds have struggled since their allowance was removed; the last of that vintage was Voy Por Ustedes, in receipt of five pounds weight for age, in 2006. So we can ignore those at this stage.
The obvious one is Sir Gerhard, comfortable winner of the Ballymore and already a point winner. Talk of his jumping frailty looks overplayed to my, granted somewhat untutored, eye and he is likely to take high rank in the novice chase division next term. I do worry that, as his flag form - and the Ballymore - implies, he could go towards the Golden Miller (Marsh/JLT/Turners) rather than the shorter race; and any early fencing blemishes will be amplified in the media which might make connections twitchy. That's enough to swerve him at the price, 5/1 tops, for now.
At double those odds is Appreciate It, nine lengths back in the Champion Hurdle after a year off the track. He ran a fair bit better than his finishing position suggests and I think we'll see a much improved performance, and subsequent contraction in his Arkle odds, after Punchestown. Even if he beats Honeysuckle there, which I don't really expect, he's likely to dodge Con Hill and go fencing next term. Footpad's was a not dissimilar profile for the same trainer, Willie Mullins, in 2018.
Zanahiyr might be another worth a thought, though he's not generally priced up: there's a good chance I don't know something I should do about the chances of his Arkle participation.
Observation:
The key is to work out who will be avoiding the perceived strength in next year's Champion Hurdle field while still being good enough to contest an Arkle. Appreciate It is a double figure price and may shorten for all sorts of targets if getting close to Honeysuckle at Punchestown.
Golden Miller Novices' Chase
Formally known as the Golden Miller, we'll stick with that for a race that in its short life has had as many sponsors/names (Jewson, Centenary, JLT, Marsh, Turners) as the Festival wants days. It's an intermediate distance novice chase, which means that even more guesswork is required in terms of horses being suited to its conditions rather than simply avoiding the level of competition in either the Arkle or RSA/Brown Advisory/Broadway. Quirkily, this year's Golden Miller had two of the very hottest novices around, Bob Olinger and Galopin Des Champs, and scared away another, L'Homme Presse, who was originally mooted to take this middle path.
That kind of double bluff is commonplace in a race whose ante post waters are further muddied by the vast array of talent in certain yards, many of which trainer and/or jockey and/or owner are eager to see in separate divisions in March.
Perhaps the previous spring will shed some much needed luminescence on these murky cogitations. [Why use one syllable when many more are available?!]
The Ballymore is the one, isn't it? Three Golden Miller winners were doubling up on a Ballymore score a year before; three more ran down the track in the same race. The winner, we know, was Sir Gerhard and I increasingly feel this is where he'll wind up - and with an obvious chance, of course.
But perhaps it's worth looking down the field for another arrow at a price that accommodates at least some of the additional risk. In that spirit, I offer up Three Stripe Life, beaten by Sir Gerhard thrice in six career starts. But stay with me a minute, because he actually got closest - within four lengths of Sir G in the Ballymore - when everything else, bar the last flight tumbler Journey With Me, was waiting for a bus home - and connections would surely have been emboldened by his finishing effort on a first try beyond two miles. He might be playable at 14/1 for an interest.
Journey With Me, too, is not impossible. He might take a different tack, as might the others mentioned, but that is surely factored into a quote of 25/1 with one joint. He was unbeaten in a point, a bumper and two novice hurdles prior to being booked for third in the Ballymore; and he represents the same owner, trainer and, presumably, jockey as this year's Golden Miller winner, Bob Olinger (for all that we know how lucky he was).
Observation:
Look to the Ballymore form. Sir Gerhard is obvious but this has been a race for apparent rather than obvious winners as the abundance of those returned 3/1 and 4/1 attests; so perhaps TSL or JWM offer a sliver of value.
Broadway Novices' Chase
Familiarly known as the RSA Chase, but now sponsored by Brown Advisory, who used to sponsor one of the handicaps - this sponsorship lark is important but it really is getting very confusing - this is the three mile novice chase championship. Below are the last ten winners and what they were up to a year or so prior.
Most of the Broadway winners ran at Cheltenham the previous year and ran well there. What is interesting, to me at least, is that three of the seven to dance at the Chelto party a year prior did so in a handicap rather than a Grade 1. Don Poli won the Martin Pipe, Presenting Percy won the Pertemps Final, and Topofthegame was second in the Coral Cup. The last named was actually the highest rated of the trio, on 150 at the time and a second season hurdler - the other pair novices - and 143 was the lowest rating of them.
No horse from the top two in the handicaps this year fits the Broadway profile, but third placed Hollow Games ran on well over the two and a half miles of the Martin Pipe to be third, carrying 11-09, second top weight. Rated 143, it's far from impossible the £255,000 sales buy could emerge as an RSA contender.
The lazy route into the Broadway is the Albert Bartlett winner but, as can be seen, only the exceptional (I think, would like to see more of him) Monkfish doubled up in the last ten years. Two beaten horses from that race, O'Faolains Boy and Blaklion, prevailed in the fencing equivalent but trying to work out which, and why, from this year's potato crop (see what I did there?) is beyond me. That said, there are reasons to believe that Hillcrest is a lot better than he showed in the Al Barty and will improve for a fence, and he's priced attractively.
A final word of caution - one can never have too many words of caution in a post like this - is that three of the most recent ten Broadway winners were unsighted at any of the Spring Festivals. Might Bite and L'Homme Presse were particularly progressive during their chase campaigns: there's always time, and space in the ledger, to back another one or three 'twixt now and then!
Observation:
Three winners that were unheralded a year earlier mean this is a race to play small at big prices, or (probably) not at all. The pick of the handicap form, ideally from a novice with a decent rating and carrying a commensurately lumpy weight, isn't the worst way to tilt at it, so have a look at 20/1 Hollow Games. And perhaps Hillcrest at a similar quote.
Queen Mother Champion Chase
The last three races under consideration are the Championship chases, starting with the two mile division.
Two races from the year before dominate, and they're predictable enough, too. The novice version of the Champion Chase, the Arkle, and the Champion Chase itself are kingmakers (or queenmaker in the case of Put The Kettle On) having hosted eight next year Champion Chasers between them; no other race has featured even a single QMCC winner. Those Champion Chase winners have all been 11/1 or shorter, which surprised me when I recall how many of them I "couldn't have"!
Thinking about the logical contenders, this has been a race notable for absenteeism, either pre-race or during: in Politologue's victory year, both Altior and Chacun Pour Soi withdrew on the day; last year, CPS threw in a clunker; and this year, Shishkin did that while CPS tucked and rolled. I mention this by way of context as I'm about to overlook Energumene and Shishkin in the ante post market.
Energumene was undeniably electric in beating what stood up and got round, but the pick of those was the 165-rated 11-year-old Politologue. But he didn't run to 165; his performance rating from the BHA was just 148. That form is hollow for all that Energ waltzed by the residue of his field. Actually, that's not the concern. Rather, it's whether or not we can trust him to turn up twelve months down the line. If we can, and he does, he will be a major player, but a top price of 7/2 is not for me.
Shishkin is brilliant. Was brilliant. He now has a question to answer: did Ascot vaporise his verve for the game? Was Cheltenham really all about the ground? I so want to believe he'll be back, and I'll cheer him as though I'm all in if/when he does come back, but I definitely do not want to wager a year out at 5/1.
Bob Olinger and Galopin Des Champs will find ways to avoid each other without taking in the Champion Chase, I expect; and Ferny Hollow could be a runner for all that his form was not far clear of Riviere d'Etel's - and that one was no match, no match at all, for Edwardstone in the Arkle. True, it was a weak enough renewal, Eddie's pre-race 159 pick of the field ascending to 161 post-race; but he did it well and with more to give. He'll go into open company next season as second in after Shishkin of the domestics, assuming Shishkin returns to his former glories. And he's 12/1 to join the three previous Arkle winners to double up in the QMCC a year later, the most recent of which was the similarly underappreciated Put The Kettle On.
Observation:
The two mile Grade 1 chases from the previous year dominate the QMCC winners board. This is a race where the obvious often comes to pass but it can still be played at a square price, perhaps through the conduit of Edwardstone, a far better chaser than hurdler who retains upside in a division of fragile commodities.
Ryanair Chase
The much-maligned Ryanair is a race I love, and it's produced more than its share of good winners, including the current two-timer Allaho. It also has a trio of predictable components, namely Golden Miller, Willie Mullins, and Aintree form.
In fact, the Golden Miller angle, while not quite a chuck out, has gone a bit cold. Not since Balko Des Flos won the Ryanair in 2018 a year after falling in the Golden Miller as a 16/1 chance has a runner from that race won the Open version. There is a very good chance, however, that one of Bob Olinger and/or Galopin Des Champs will run in next year's Ryanair, and either would hold strong claims for all that Allaho is a worthy champ.
Galopin Des Champs, a stablemate of Allaho, is still more likely to go Ryanair as things stand: he jumps well (in spite of his last fence misfortune in the Golden Miller) and has a fantastic cruising speed. 6/1 is at the unexciting end of the acceptable spectrum, I feel, because there looks to be a huge amount of dead wood in the betting lists right now - this could end up being next year's version of the Turners match up: never mind the width, feel the quality. Galopin and Allaho both tick the Willie Mullins box - the Closutton guru has won five of the last seven Ryanair's and has a half nelson around the 2023 renewal at time of writing.
Aintree form is an interesting sneak into the ante post markets, for all that we don't yet know how that plays out. Winners of the two G1 novices chases, the Mildmay and Manifesto, prevailed in the following Ryanair in 2014/15, and Min won the Melling Chase, an Open Grade 1, en route to 2020 Ryanair glory.
Observation:
Trained by Willie Mullins, and/or exiting either of the Golden Miller/Turners or an Aintree G1 (as a winner) all embellish the prospects of a Ryanair contender. At this stage, Galopin Des Champs is a fair enough play at 6/1 in what might end up a shallow race - Allaho notwithstanding - next term. But keep a beady on events in Liverpool the week after next, too. There might be a play at a price emerging from the action there.
Cheltenham Gold Cup
And finally, the Cheltenham Gold Cup, the Blue Riband. A proper test over three and a quarter miles, plus a few more yards, it's a legitimate proving ground for our sport's champions.
Placed Gold Cup horses can and do win the following year, as demonstrated most recently by Native River (2018), Al Boum Photo doubling up in 2020, and A Plus Tard this year. And, like the Arkle/QMCC and Golden Miller/Ryanair couplings, the Broadway is a natural springboard for the Gold Cup. Witness Bobs Worth, Lord Windermere, Al Boum Photo (first time around), and Minella Indo. Those two angles account for seven of the last ten Gold Cup winners.
A shortlist, then, might be A Plus Tard, Minella Indo, Protektorat, L'Homme Presse and Ahoy Senor.
Some have Stattler making a claim but the National Hunt Chase has made zero inroads into the Gold Cup picture, even since cutting back in distance, Galvin the latest to possess the stamina but not the class for the main gig. Others proffer the talented Monkfish but he has not been seen on the course since April last year and has plenty to prove as a result. He might enter the frame after we've swooned over his comeback but he's no kind of long-term conveyance at this point.
There is no sign of a Golden Miller runner winning the Gold Cup a year after in recent history and, besides, Galopin Des Champs is only 5/1 and has other - some say, better - options. Nor am I personally convinced of the Cheltenham credentials of Bravemansgame, for all that he may shorten if winning at Aintree.
Of the quintet on the shortlist, Minella Indo will be ten next year - too old - and Protektorat looked some way shy of what's required for all that he can certainly improve from his current mark: he'll only be eight next year. A Plus Tard was imperious this time and is unquestionably the one to beat; but he's scheduled to face two rising stars off Broadway, as it were, next year. That's just as well because it's hard to see anything behind him a couple of weeks ago reversing places.
L'Homme Presse had stamina questions to answer going into the Broadway; not only did he respond with a win, he did it going away from a strong stayer at the finish. It was a performance that quietly but confidently, erm, pressed his Gold Cup claims, though 8/1 reflects that pretty much fully. So what of his vanquished rival, Ahoy Senor? His jumping was a little sketchy, more than that at one point, and if brushing up as he's entitled to for a second season over fences, he could maybe bridge the gap; but it's a stretch to imagine a reversal of form even with a clear round.
If Royale Pagaille ever gets a swamp on Gold Cup day, he'd have a great chance, and is still young enough to be a player in twelve months' time; but that is a big 'if' as evidenced by the 'going' column in the above table. Still, 50/1 is a tad rude, I'd say.
Observation:
Look to the podium spots in the previous Gold Cup, and the 1-2 from the Broadway. The problem is that the market has looked there already meaning value appears pretty thin on the ground.
*
So that's that, a route into most of next year's Cheltenham Festival Grade 1's based on activity this spring. If you're ambitious enough to try a few of these so far out - we all have to survive another fifty weeks through uncertain times for a start (mind you, if we don't, I guess it won't really matter whether we've made good bets or bad) - then it could be worth some uber-optimistic permed doubles. Catch one and it will apologise for a lot of misfires from the scattergun!
One other thing to keep in mind is price volatility over time. The ante post markets overreact in both directions, so horses that fit the bill above but are skinny enough in the betting right now will still fit the historical profile if/when they ease out a point or three. The brave investor buys when others are selling, as long as her fundamentals are close enough to their mark.
Good luck. With a favourable spin of the wheel, we'll have a few tasty tickets on the back burner while those flat race bunnies are haring about the place.
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ConstitutionHill_TolworthHurdle.jpg320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2022-03-29 07:45:392022-03-29 07:58:04I Know What You Did Last Spring: Making Long Range Cheltenham Festival Projections
Plenty of people from the UK still apparently enjoy the experience of Dubai in late March, writes Tony Stafford. A number of my friends and acquaintances, most barely recovered from the bruising four days at Cheltenham – they might baulk at five – were off again for another cash-devouring few days in the Gulf.
They are the same grouping who also find time to contribute to the well-being of the people that own Las Vegas hotels. I always fancied a few days there, but no doubt the funds would immediately run out at the tables and I would need to try to fiddle a replacement flight home without penalty.
The nearest in my lifetime of a similar jaunt was when a school friend, Harry Hillier, a genius who, when he sat his masters’ degree, the rubric asked him to answer at least two of the ten questions on the paper. As the remaining students on his course canvassed each other and revealed they had managed maybe two or three, when they asked Harry, he answered: “Well I did them all, but I wasn’t happy about a couple of them.”
A clever chap, then, but not, as he always conceded, as good as me in our teens at digging out winners. Be it on the horses or on our almost nightly forays to Clapton and other favourites of the many dog tracks in London – more than 20 at the time, I usually had final say on our corporate wagers. He became a university lecturer in econometrics (I’ve still no idea what that is!): at around that time I became Chief Reporter on the Greyhound Express.
My parents – with me – had often holidayed in Ostend, my dad loving the fact the races there in those days went on five days a week and you could walk there from the hotel. Before Harry went off to university and I started my first job, we decided to go there and got cheap flights from Southend Airport.
We had five nights arranged at the sub-budget hotel, but went skint after the first two days, and had to leave, managing to get a replacement flight. I’ve never been back in the intervening almost 60 years and suddenly have the urge to do so. Vegas, Dubai and even Cheltenham, you can keep them. I heard reports of extortionate prices at Cheltenham – someone said £14 for a gin and tonic? – the track obviously trying to get back the losses from 2021. I doubt it was any better value in Meydan.
In most years over the past two decades, all the invading hordes of UK punters needed to wrest back some of that cash at Meydan was to follow the overwhelming power of the home team. Surely Charlie Appleby, champion trainer in the UK for the first time in 2021, would provide them with the requisite winners as usual.
But for once the royal blue of Godolphin did not pass the post in front even once in the seven championship races. The die was soon cast by Charlie and William Buick’s two bankers: Manobo in the two-mile Gold Cup, a 9-4 on flop, was followed 40 minutes later when Man Of Promise, 10-11 in the Al Quoz Sprint, could do no better than third to a couple of Irish and UK challengers.
Ado McGuinness’s 14-1 shot A Case Of You under Ronan Whelan, got the better of the Richard Hannon-trained Happy Promise (20-1). Two more Appleby runners, the Frankie Dettori-partnered Naval Crown who finished fourth, and the team’s second string and race second favourite, Creative Force, who finished 14th of 16 completed their unsuccesful challenge.
Once again on the world stage, the Japanese were out in force, their Stay Foolish, ridden by Christophe Lemaire, outstaying the perceived as unbeatable Manobo, to follow up trainer Yoshito Yahagi’s 66/1 shocker Bathrat Leon in the opening Group 2 Mile.
Manobo, who had so entranced the Racing TV experts when winning his trial for the big race recently, probably still has plenty to offer when returning to Newmarket this summer, but his defeat must have been a severe shock for Sheikh Mohammed as well as his trainer and jockey.
The best performance, Manobo apart, from an Appleby runner was Yibir’s second place behind another Japanese, Shahryar in the Sheema Classic over a mile and a half on the turf track. Christian Demuro had the mount here and the 13/2 shot bravely held off Yibir’s challenge.
Fourth, with Dettori in the saddle deputising for injured regular rider Martin Dwyer, was the William Muir and Chris Grassick runner Pyledriver, beaten a length having looked booked for second 100 yards from home when Yibir started his late rally.
Having won his last three 2021 starts in the Great Voltigeur at York, an Invitation race at Belmont Park and finally the Breeders’ Cup Turf, this was an excellent comeback run by Yibir, but with no feasible representative in a World Cup which was left to the devices of the Americans, the home team’s uncharacteristic blank would have been a severe blow.
Having won the Sprint it was Japan’s turn again two races later, when the 12-1 shot Crown Pride collected the UAE Derby, a Group 2 race over one mile one furlong for three-year-olds on the dirt, under Australian jockey Damian Lane. Saeed Bin Suroor, who had plenty of runners on a card he had often dominated in the days before Charlie’s pre-eminence within the team, saddled the third placed Island Falcon at 33-1.
The unexpected happening in that race was the performance of Bob Baffert’s Pinehurst, returning with another long journey to the Middle East from California following his triumph four weeks earlier in the Saudi Derby over a mile in Riyadh. Starting 7-4 favourite that day, he battled well to land the massive prize.
Here he was a 4-1 joint favourite for a big-money follow up, but obviously went wrong, trailing the field home as a tailed-off last of 16. Baffert, though, would enjoy the last laugh at the meeting, but first let’s deal with a fourth Japanese success.
Their horses were to the fore at the Breeders’ Cup and in Saudi Arabia and, in between the triumphs of Bathrat Leon, Stay Foolish, Crown Pride and Shahryar, front-running Panthalassa (8/1) had to share the honours in the Dubai Turf. He was joined on the line in the one mile, one furlong contest by the Gosdens’ money-spinner Lord North (100-30).
Yet another Japanese, 28-1 shot Vin Du Garde, finished fastest of all a nose behind the dead-heaters. Two more UK runners, multiple Group 1-winning filly Saffron Beach (Jane Chapple-Hyam) and William Knight’s Sir Busker were respectively fourth and fifth, picking up plenty of place money. In Sir Busker’s case, the $150,000 greatly exceeded what he would have earned had he carried out his alternative role and run in and won Saturday’s Lincoln Handicap on the opening day of the 2022 turf season.
Baffert’s day in the sun arrived courtesy of Country Grammer. Having been caught late on by 50-1 home-trained Emblem Road in the Saudi Cup last month, he became the underdog defeating the hitherto regarded as best in the world dirt runner in the mile and a quarter Dubai World Cup.
Life Is Good had won five of his six races before Saturday and the Todd Pledger representative started the 8/13 favourite but ended only fourth, his stamina patently failing him on this first attempt at beyond nine furlongs. Now Country Grammer has total earnings of more than £8 million, but still trails a good way behind Mishriff (£11million-plus) who finished last in the Saudi race he won 12 months earlier.
Back home, everyone and especially the bookmakers, expected William Haggas to collect another Lincoln Handicap with the front two in the betting and another lively outsider to represent him. The third string Irish Admiral, at 22/1, was fourth to the Mick Channon-trained 28-1 shot Johan, who won nicely, with 3/1 favourite Mujtaba only 12th and heavily-backed Ametist finishing last of the 22 runners.
Ironically, Johan had been in the Haggas stable until last autumn when owner-breeders Jon and Julia Aisbitt decided a change of scenery was in order. Channon traditionally has his team in trim for the start of the season even though son Harry declared after the win: “It’s colder at West Ilsley than up here!” Imagine what Mick will do when they come in their coats!
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Dubai_Turf2022_LordNorth_Japanese.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2022-03-28 07:59:382022-03-28 07:59:38Monday Musings: Of The Rising Sun in Dubai
With the turf flat season about to start, I thought now was a good time to start looking in detail at some potential flat racing systems, writes Dave Renham. As with all articles in this series I am going to look over the long term, studying UK data from Jan 1st 2009 to Dec 31st 2021 with all profits quoted to Betfair SP.
When sharing these racing systems I am not advocating that you use them 'as is' necessarily, but my plan is to give you all the facts so you can make an informed choice. As we know systems are not for everyone, but for many readers there will be something to take out of this research. See what you think...
The "Good Newmarket debut" system
For years I have noticed that horses that had their first ever flat run at Newmarket are worth a close look in their next race. Indeed, backing all Newmarket debutants in their next race would have yielded a BSP profit of £801.39 to £1 level stakes. This equates to a return of more than 17 pence in the £. All looks fine and dandy! However, digging deeper we can see that in 2010 a horse won at odds of 814.82, which even after 2% commission returned a profit of around £798 for a £1 bet. Take that winner out and profits end up at just £30 for the 13 seasons. Not quite so exciting!
With one winner effectively wiping out all the profits, it is not a system we can confidently use in its raw form, but it is still impressive to note how well this simple idea has done. Perhaps we can implement a sensible and logical system rule or two to it, and find a potential system. Clearly we need to eliminate that big priced winner and the most logical way to go is to stick to horses that impressed on their debut run at Newmarket. My first thought, then, was to look only at horses that had finished in the first three on their debut run. My system now reads:
Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
Second career start having made debut at Newmarket
Finished in the first three on debut
Here are the results of this system (2009-2021):
The baseline figures look good – returns pushing 17p in the £ is the same as the raw system produced. The strike rate is really good as well, with horses winning at a rate of better than one race in every three. As I have mentioned before, we need to look for consistency and one of the best ways of doing this is to study the yearly results. The BSP returns are plotted yearly in the graph below:
There have been ten winning years out of 13, and the losses in 2012, 2013 and 2016 were not bank breaking in the least. What is pleasing is that the results match the system logic, this logic being that races at Newmarket which involve debutants are usually well above average in terms of standard for the specific race type. Maidens in particular see most of the top stables sending out what they perceive to be their best unraced horses. Hence, horses that finish in the first three on their Newmarket debut are not only well thought of pre-race, but they have produced the goods early on the track too.
More positive news is that the overall results are not skewed by any huge priced winners and this is illustrated if we implement a maximum price rule. For a price rule it is easier to use traditional SP and if we limit selections to horses that had an SP of 12/1 or less we get the following overall figures:
These results show that the vast majority of qualifiers started at 12/1 or less and, ultimately, this backs up the fact that the system has been consistent and not skewed by big priced winners. We still see the same ten winning years out of 13, and the losing years now produce smaller losses in each of the three years.
To me, this looks a playable system and one you might consider utilising in some way, be it following the rules blindly if that way inclined, or looking at system qualifiers and making a judgement call based on your own form/race reading.
The "Fit and in form" system
Going back to the 80's and early 90's there were successful systems based on horses that returned to the track quickly. In those days, with little or no computer data to crunch, punters and most of the betting fraternity were unaware that horses were often inclined to run well after a very short break. I suppose the misconception was that such horses would need more time to recover. However if we look at the strike rates of all runners in all flat races we can see that when we break down the data, the more recent the last run the better:
Horses returning to the track within four days have a far superior strike rate to any other group, scoring 15.4% of the time. Nowadays, the punters are aware of this quick returning bias, which is why blind profits cannot be made any more. Having said that, even now, backing all such runners returning to the track within four days would have lost you less than 1p for every £ bet – so almost a break even scenario. That is from nearly 18,000 runners!
So the system I want to share is based around quick returners, focusing on horses that appear in form. The system rules read:
Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
Days since last run 1 to 4 days
Finished in the first five in both of their last two starts.
Note, for the last rule I could have chosen finishing in the first three in their last two runs, or I could have chosen a top six finish. In fact, I decided on top five before checking the results. For the record, the results would have even better if I had included a top 6 finish in their last two runs, but this is simply back-fitting and the increase in profitability would very likely be down to luck. Similarly, I could have chosen top three – they also made a profit when I checked and with a much better strike rate. However, although there is some logic in picking slightly better performances on their last two starts this again would potentially be back-fitting.
This angle's strike rate has fluctuated a little, as one might expect, ranging from a low of 10.4% in 2019 to a high of 23.7% in 2020. However, 2019 was the only year the strike rate dipped below 14.5%, and in eight years the strike rate has exceeded 20%. The overall bottom line reads as follows:
That's a good looking strike rate which most punters would be comfortable with and sound profits, too, showing a 7p in the £ return. Let us now look at the yearly breakdown by BSP Returns (ROI%):
There have been nine winning years and four losing ones with the worst year actually being last year. That said, losses were less than 10% so it wasn’t a disaster. In terms of big priced winners, there were a couple but almost all price brackets showed a profit which is comforting.
Is this one a system I would personally use? Not in its raw state, no, as it averages over 500 bets a year which is too many for my style. However, I do often look for quick returners, so this system for me is a case of note the qualifiers and do some further digging.
The "3yos versus older horses in long distance races" system
Not the catchiest title in the world for this one! However, I have long noted that 3yos seem to perform well in longer distance races when racing against older horses. So here is the system.
Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
Male 3yos
Races for horses aged 3 and older
Distance 1m6f or more
3yo males seem more robust than 3yo females when it comes to running longer distances. The male strike rate since 2009 is over 5.5% higher than the female one, which is why I've included the male rule. Perhaps the reason 3yos run well against their elders in long distance races relates to the sliding weight for age scale; I’m not sure, but the overall stats look decent:
As ever, we need to look at the annual breakdown by BSP ROI% to give us a fuller picture:
There have been nine winning years out of 13, which shows reasonable enough consistency but, as we can see from the graph, 2021 has really skewed the overall numbers. Of the £274.10 profit to £1 level stakes, 2021 contributed £212.76. That equates to 77% of the overall profit.
Moreover, if we look closely, 2009 to 2012 produced good results – profits of £142.98 to £1 level stakes. Since then, and taking out that 2021 outlier, there would have been a loss of £81.64. Now that is only a loss of 7p in the £ so not terminal, but this system looks quite risky in terms of backing every selection.
So what options do we have? Well, as I have mentioned before, you do not have to back every selection. If you are a punter who does their own research and race analysis then you can look at each system selection and deploy your usual race reading criteria to decide whether it is a possible bet or not.
It is worth noting that system qualifiers that drop back in distance from last time out have performed below the norm; this is probably what we should expect as the system logic is based on the fact that the younger horses are less exposed over longer distances. System qualifiers that dropped in trip from their last run would have lost you 22p in the £. However, despite the logic, I did not add this to the original system rules as one could argue this is back-fitting (and it is also possible to argue that it is not in this instance).
For me, this is not a system to use in its raw form, but again I would note qualifiers and see if there are other compelling reasons which would potentially produce a betting opportunity.
The "Ran in the Oaks LTO" system
This is a very simple system that has performed well for many years. It is much more a niche or micro system as you will only get a handful of qualifiers each year. For this system I have included runs in Ireland next time out along with the UK, as of course a good proportion of Irish runners take part in the Epsom race. For the record, runners that race in the UK next time make a profit of 80p in the £; those that raced in Ireland next time returned a more modest, but still not to be sniffed at, 12p in the £. Thus, I am adding the Irish course results despite the fact they lower the overall return percentage. For me I feel this system needs to include all runners.
Here is the breakdown:
As you'll have gathered from the ROI comments above, these are very strong looking figures and, even at traditional SP, would have seen returns of 31p in the £. Let’s look at the annual breakdown. As we are looking at small samples this time I have used profit figures to £1 level stakes rather than ROI%:
The 2020 race was delayed due to COVID and was run in July with a small field of eight. Overall, there have been nine winning years out of 13. Small losses in four years but considering the small sample size these yearly results look positive. I was also able to back check the previous five seasons to this (2004 to 2008); four of those five years made a profit, too. Profits in those five years would have equated to around 60p in the £; so very similar. So, going back to 2004, we have 13 winning years out of 18.
The system does not rely on a good run in the Oaks, in fact horses that finished fifth or worse have proved the best value, still scoring around 20% of the time and producing returns of approximately 100 pence in the £.
I like this system and it is clear horses that ran in the Oaks require very close scrutiny next time. For the record, horses that ran in the Derby last time out have also made a profit going back to 2009, but one big priced winner has skewed the overall profits somewhat. Taking that winner out would have left you with a very small overall loss. Going all the way back to 2004 backing all qualifiers would have seen you break even.
I hope you have enjoyed this latest probe into system betting. In the next article the focus with be flat racing once again and I will be analysing some trainer statistics.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Snowfall_Oaks2021.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2022-03-21 17:12:282022-03-21 17:12:28Racing Systems: Flat Season Angles
It's that time of year again, post-Cheltenham 2022, when the prudent thing to do is look over one's wagering and inspect where things went wrong, and right; or right, and wrong. If you're the voyeuristic type then I invite you to look over my shoulder at how the Fez went for me from a punting perspective.
By way of comparison/contrast, here are a couple of previous reviews:
How was Cheltenham for you? Leave a comment and let us know!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Honeysuckle_ChampionHurdle2022.jpg319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2022-03-21 08:52:012022-06-09 09:25:40Cheltenham 2022: Profit and Loss
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