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The opening day of the 2022 Cheltenham Festival can boast four Grade 1 contests, with the undisputed highlight of that quartet being the Champion Hurdle.
Run over an extended two miles, the Champion Hurdle is the ultimate test of speed and agility and its roll of honour is a veritable who's who of the great and good of the winter sport: the likes of Persian War, Bula, Sea Pigeon, Comedy Of Errors, Night Nurse, Monksfield, See You Then, Hardy Eustace, Hurricane Fly, Buveur d'Air and, of course, Istabraq, are all multiple winners of the Champion Hurdle. And, this year, Honeysuckle will bid to add her name to that illustrious list.
An interesting fact is that, between the Champion Hurdle's inception in 1927 and Flakey Dove's win in 1994, there were just three triumphant mares; and, since 2016 - six seasons - there have also been three victorious mares! Annie Power won that year, followed by Epatante in 2020 and Honeysuckle last term. The last named is bidding to make it an incredible four from seven for girl power, and she is currently considered by those lovely bookie types to be more likely than not to do just that.
But is Honeysuckle unstoppable? And, if she is, is there another way to access this mouth-watering contest from a wagering perspective? Let us begin by taking instruction from the recent past.
Champion Hurdle Trends
Such is the fluid nature of training patterns and Anglo-Irish primacy that delving too far back can become counter-productive. So we'll keep that in mind while pondering results since 2008, the last fourteen years.
Age
You can win a Champion Hurdle aged ten. Or eleven, or twelve. But it's now 41 years since Sea Pigeon recorded back-to-back victories as a double-digit aged veteran. No horse older than nine has won since, and only three nine-year-olds have scored in that time, too. So this is a young horse's game.
Indeed, as the table above demonstrates, 12 of the last 14 Champion Hurdlers were aged five, six or seven. Honeysuckle (and also Epatante, Appreciate It, and Abacadabras) are eight, Sharjah is nine, and good old (really quite old now) Buveur D'Air is eleven.
Looking deeper down the pecking orders reveals that in place terms, six is the sweet spot while seven-year-olds also hold their own against numerical representation at least. Those aged six managed to return a profit at starting price for both win and each way bets.
Official Ratings
The average winning official rating (OR) of the last 14 Champion Hurdlers is a shade under 164. But the chart below shows that, after a period of relative strength in the division between 2008 and 2015, elite performances have since been hard to come by.
It might be that the seven pound gender allowance mares receive from colts and geldings impacts these trendlines but the fact is that low 160's horses have been very competitive in recent Champion Hurdles.
Starting Price
There are a few surprises in terms of the odds of Champion Hurdle winners but it is also true that the expected ones generally prevail.
Natural selection dictates that the shorter odds brackets equate to green blocks on the right hand side: so far, so what? Perhaps what this table really brings home is how often it proves to be folly taking on a strong fancy at the head of the market. It may well be the case in 2022.
Happily, even if that does come to pass, there are other ways to play the race as we'll get to.
UK vs Ireland
Irish eyes were smiling last year as Honeysuckle landed odds of 11/10 by an easy six-plus lengths. And Irish-trained horses filled out the next four positions, too, a lop-sided result that might have been even worse had Abacadabras, Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle scorer on his next start, not fallen early in the race.
In 2020, things were brighter for the home defence, with favourite Epatante winning. But the Irish were massed thereafter, filling out positions second to fifth and seventh. 2019 saw an Irish 1-2-4, but in 2018 Buveur D'Air restored a little pride for the British team. Of course, Ireland's squad claimed second, third and fourth.
Almost every year, the Irish raiders outperform their physical numbers; again, there is selection bias in that the expense of traveling must be vaguely vindicated by a horse's prospects in a race not typically infiltrated by the dreaded 'social runners'.
Since 2008, Irish-trained horses have won six of 14 renewals (43% of winners) and placed on 16 occasions (38% of placers), from 41 starters (24% of starters). Ireland is dominant in the Champion Hurdle just now and that trend is very likely to continue.
Who fits the bill?
History suggests we're looking for a young - seven or younger - Irish-trained hurdler with a rating at least in the lower 160's and priced up as having some sort of a chance. Given that the first four in the ante post betting lists fail on at least one of these criteria makes me nervous but, for what it's worth, here are those that seem to fit...
Incredibly, none of the 23 entries tick those boxes.
The five-year-olds are all rated below the requisite standard at this stage: when Katchit won aged five in 2008 he was officially rated 159 and when Espoir D'Allen scored in 2019 he was 162 OR. Zanahiyr is actually rated 159 by the Irish handicapper so might be the pick. Or maybe Aspire Tower, last seen trailing in as lanterne rouge in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle nine months ago, and a precarious wagering conveyance outside of the odds range. Or, more realistically, we're looking at an older than usual winner, one of Honeysuckle, Appreciate It, Sharjah or Epatante.
Frankly, the trend does not appear to be our friend on this occasion...
Champion Hurdle Pace Scenarios / Pace Map
As I demonstrated in this Cheltenham Gold Cup preview, the way a race is run can make a huge difference to the chance of its competitors, in either a positive or negative way. Here's how the 23 entries shape up run style wise, based on an average scoring of their early position in their most recent three UK/Irish starts.
The likelihood is of an even to strong gallop with each of the trio in the 'Led' column capable of sitting behind the speed if it's too frenetic.
Historically, only Ruby Walsh has managed to take his rivals tape to lolly, a feat he achieved in consecutive renewals in 2015/16. Since then, more patient tactics have been the order of the hour, all subsequent winners except Buveur D'Air (tracked leaders) and almost all placed horses (Darver Star, tracked leaders, Melon and Petit Mouchoir, both led, aside) coming from midfield or further back.
Appreciate It may try to dominate from the front but an even tempo ought to inconvenience very few. If they go a beat quicker, the finish will likely be played out by the more patiently ridden runners.
2022 Champion Hurdle Form Guide
After a sizable dollop of conjecturing, I feel we're largely back where we started with neither trends nor run styles/pace expected to be the kingmaking component: the best horse should win. And, though one or two have mildly ascendant profiles, the best horse can be judged from the pages of the form book.
The best horse in this field, in receipt of seven pounds anyway, is indubitably Honeysuckle. She is one of those mares about whom the feeling is that she doesn't really need the weight concession, and that if she didn't get it, she'd be a step closer to the pantheon of the sport. She's a winter game Enable.
Honeysuckle is a winner of all fourteen of her lifetime starts - a point to point and then, under Rules, thirteen hurdle races - the last eight straight of which have been in Grade 1 company, seven of them against the men. She sometimes doesn't win by far but she does always win; and, barring incident or accident, hint or allegation (to butcher Paul Simon), she will win again. Her record is incredible, from two miles to two and a half, good ground to heavy, big fields or small fields, geldings or mares; and, though I cannot back her at 4/6, I certainly don't want to lay her.
Even if you, like me, think Honeysuckle is comfortably the most likely winner and not necessarily the wrong price in the context, there are ways to bet the Champion Hurdle. Each way is probably not optimal given that there's a fair to good chance we'd be lobbing half the stake - the win half, for the avoidance of doubt - in the bin. No, I don't want to bet each way; I want to bet in the 'without Honeysuckle' market.
Take out this queen and we are left with a fascinating puzzle where they bet bigger than 3/1 the field and each way three places. Game on!
There may be a dearth of credible rivals to Honeysuckle, but within the ranks of the (presumed) minor podium contenders we have two groups: those which need to step forward and may be capable of so doing, and those for whom excuses must be proffered and accepted.
In the "progressive?" camp are those glam rockers, Appreciate It and the Five Year Olds. All sparkle and shouty 1's to their name and form profiles, and with fan boys and girls aplenty; but, like the lyrics of a Kiss song, how much substance can be found when you get past the eye liner and leotards? [Sorry, I genuinely have no idea where that analogy went, or why]
Appreciate Itis a substantial creature, and he did blitz his opposition when barrelling clear in last year's Supreme. He was also second in the Champion Bumper of 2020, so no fears about track or trip or ground. But where has AI been hiding? We've not seen him since day one of Cheltenham last year, though he is entered in the Irish Champion Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF) early next month. Even if he ran very well there, perhaps getting close to Honeysuckle - assuming she runs, too - he can't shorten much from his current 7/1 quote unless beating the champ.
The five-year-olds in the CH picture are a bigger crew than normal this season, at this stage at least, and it seems likely that some will be shaken out of the reckoning 'twixt now and then. Zanahiyr, as mentioned already, is the most plausible on ratings. He's 159 on Irish official figures, and has mixed it with Sharjah on his last two starts, finishing second each time. He did get closer to the dual Champion Hurdle runner up on the more recent attempt, within a neck no less, and may have a third tilt in the Irish Champion.
But Zanahiyr was only fourth in the Triumph Hurdle last term when sent off 11/8 favourite, that being his only overseas jaunt. It's hard to say whether it was the travel or the course constitution or both, or if he just had an off day; but what is easier to level is that he has looked a touch exposed against established open Grade 1 sorts this season for all that he's narrowing the gap and steadily elevating his rating at the same time.
Quilixios won the Triumph last year and is in the frame for the Champion this campaign, having been 'Pricewised'. But last year he arrived at Cheltenham unbeaten in three spins, while since then he's been beaten in three spins. I have huge respect from trainer Henry de Bromhead as a target trainer, and Quilixios is another who could advance his claims in the Irish Champion, but he's not improved since the Triumph, from which level of form a stone or so is normally needed to challenge on the biggest stage.
The horse to bash him the last twice is Teahupoo (no, me neither; actually, I just googled it and, apparently, it's a village on the southwestern coast of Tahiti - so now we both know). He's four from four for Gordon Elliott - was beaten into second when trained by Sneezy Foster, if you believe that was a different regime - and has looked a better horse than Quilixios this term for all that he made hard work of it on heavy at Limerick. He's also not raced on quicker than yielding and we're not seeing torrents of rain this year to date. The Irish 'capper has him on 149, Quilixios on 150, at time of writing: neither mark is good enough, but one or both may improve after DubFez (that's seriously not a cool amalgam).
For the Brits, the five-year-olds are headed up, I think, by Triumph runner-up Adagio, who ran a bold race that day, and again twice subsequently, at Aintree (G1) and Cheltenham (Greatwood Handicap). A three-time bridesmaid in his most recent efforts, then, but all of them admirable. The Festival run needs little explanation, the Aintree effort could have been better but for a howler at the last hurdle, and the Cheltenham silver, off top weight in a 19-runner skirmish on seasonal bow, was valiant. Still, he's only rated 152 by the British handicapper and that leaves him a good bit to find even allowing for the more lenient marks which are a feature of this season in Blighty.
Adagio's vanquisher at Aintree was the theretofore unbeaten Monmiral; but that chap blotted the notional copybook big time when miles off the pace in the G1 Fighting Fifth. That was his seasonal starter and first try against seasoned Grade 1'ers, but still, he has a fair bit to prove at this juncture and no immediate entries in which to prove it.
Tritonic has a mountain to climb to reverse form with Epatante on their Christmas Hurdle running; and the novices Saint Felicien and six-year-old My Mate Mozzie don't look good enough yet, though both will have a chance to further their claims before the Festival.
And then we have the Aging Rockers - the "talented but fallible" group - headed up by Sharjah and Epatante. Sharjah is nine now, something that couldn't prevent Hurricane Fly claiming a second Champion Hurdle or Rooster Booster a first; but it was at least a contributory factor in the defeats of Harchibald, Binocular, My Tent Or Yours and The New One, all of whom had podium 'previous' in the race. From that list, only My Tent Or Yours was able to finish higher than fifth, running up to Annie Power in 2016.
Sharjah is a strong travelling sort but occasionally a bit quirky at the serious end as his reluctant (to these peepers) score in the Matheson showed; there he tanked up to the girths of Zanahiyr before cocking his jaw somewhat and sticking his head in the air somewhat. Nevertheless, he did win that Grade 1, and for a record fourth time. Moreover, in his time he's amassed most of a million quids in prize money - around £838,800 to be fairly precise, which is only about forty grand shy of Honey's total pot - and must have given his owners untold joy. And, since his 2020 Matheson success, he's been beaten only by Honeysuckle (three times) and Abacadabras. It's hard not to be impressed with his overall record in spite of a few niggling doubts.
Epatante is a former Champion Hurdler, beating Sharjah into second two years ago. She was arguably a little below par last season but still ran third in the Champion, this time Sharjah winning their personal duel. Her usual Grade 1 Christmas romp went to plan this term, where last campaign it did not, and she goes to Cheltenham still only an eight-year-old: that may be knocking on a touch in the context of this race's profile but she's no old-timer. She's a little bit the forgotten horse in spite of winning two Grade 1's this season (one, in the Fighting Fifth where possibly under-cooked, a dead heat, and, granted, not really taking the eye out at Kempton with her finishing effort); and she has improved on her earlier season form in both of the last two seasons in the Champion Hurdle. I expect she will again bring her best to the Festival party.
Another in this camp is Abacadabras, also eight, though one whose campaign hardly screams podium finish, ostensibly at least. Good enough to win the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle after an uncharacteristic capsize in the Champion Hurdle twelve months ago, the Gordon Elliott-trained son of Davidoff has form of 435 since. But a closer inspection shows that the '4' was when very possibly over the top at Punchestown's Festival having already danced in the Cotswolds and in Liverpool that spring; the '3' was a creditable first run of term behind Honeysuckle, and the '5' last time was when appearing not to stay upped to three miles in the Leopardstown Christmas Hurdle.
Lest we forget, Abacadabras was only a neck behind Shishkin in the Supreme of 2020 and looked a proper G1 horse at Aintree a year later. His overall profile may be a tad patchy but on his day he's very good.
Finally, I think Aspire Tower deserves a mention. Last seen when apparently injuring himself in the Punchestown Festival Champion Hurdle in April 2021, he'd previously run fourth in the Cheltenham equivalent, as a five-year-old. As a four-year-old at Cheltenham, he'd run second to Burning Victory (would have been third, of course, but for Goshen's uber-misfortune). It's a long old absence to overcome but the fact he retains this entry means he must be close to peak fitness; that said, he doesn't feature in the entries for the DRF and presumably connections would want to get a run into him before the big March Tuesday.
2022 Champion Hurdle Tips
The win market is rightly dominated by Honeysuckle, whose race this is to lose on all known form and in what looks a relatively weak division currently. Because she has such an overwhelming hold on the probabilities, each way betting makes little appeal. Better, I think, to play in the 'without Honeysuckle' market. That makes it a 3/1 the field affair and, in truth, fiendishly difficult. It is also the case that the betting order and shape will likely take an almighty shakeup after the Irish Champion Hurdle, the entries for which are below.
An over- or under-performance by any of these will see their odds fluctuate and, while current wisdom implies a Honeysuckle-Sharjah-Appreciate It and/or the Five-Year-Olds 1-2-3, reality may paint a different outcome.
Meanwhile, back at Cheltenham, plenty of the Champion Hurdle entries are simply not rated at the level that suggests prospects in all but a black swan scenario. The ones who are, Honeysuckle aside, are Sharjah, Epatante, Appreciate It, Zanahiyr, Aspire Tower and perhaps Abacadabras.
The logical play, and favourite at 10/3 in this market, is Sharjah and I couldn't argue that his chance of winning with/without Honeysuckle is less than 23%. It might be a little more than that without screaming value, I just didn't really like the way he finished his race at Leopardstown last time.
Epatante's back class and effective if unspectacular Grade 1 form this term, allied to the seven pound mares' allowance, makes her interesting at 11/2. She's lacked a bit of sparkle so far but could be sitting on a better effort: she's already achieved more than many of her rivals.
Appreciate It is the unknown having not raced since the Supreme Novices' Hurdle ten months ago as I write. If he shows up at the DRF next month that will be highly instructive, and I'd rather take a shorter price after that race than speculate on him before it. Moreover, his usual bold front-running style won't necessarily lend itself to the projected race setup.
Zanahiyr's talent is fully priced into his quote of 6/1. It's about the same odds as are available for Epatante and she's won two Grade 1's this season and run 1-3 in Champion Hurdles. Aspire Tower is not really playable in anything but a non-runner no bet market (and might be the exception to the 'don't bet each way against Honeysuckle' mantra at 40/1 NRNB, Betfred).
Abacadabras keeps drawing my eye, daftly perhaps, but he's a price to legitimise a bob or two each way in the without's. He's a strong stayer at the trip and will introduce himself quite late in the drama if he's good enough. 20/1 each way without the favourite isn't the worst approach to a borderline inscrutable puzzle, though it is possible he might skip Cheltenham and head to Aintree. As such, I'm waiting for the non-runner no bet proviso (and potentially a shorter price) to play.
Things will be a lot clearer after the Irish Champion Hurdle on 6th February, and wagering any Irish runner prior to that risks devaluing the position several weeks before Cheltenham. The one horse whose price will not move much, if at all, is Epatante and she looks a most logical and reasonable each way 'bet to nothing' (if only such a thing existed).
2022 Champion Hurdle Suggestion
1pt e/w Epatante without Honeysuckle at 11/2 (1/5 1-2-3) Hills
It's been a while, but Clock Watcher is back. A (very occasional) series, Clock Watcher aims to highlight a few horses that, according to the sectional data published on this site, produced noteworthy performances and may be underrated - for the time being - going forwards.
Exactly a year ago, I published this Clock Watcher six to follow article and, as generally befalls such things, it was a mixed bag of results. The two Charlie Appleby runners have never run in Britain since, both now in Dubai for other trainers: Folk Magic is unraced since his eye-catching run, while Castlebar was whacked on his Sharjah reappearance after most of a year off before running a much more promising second at Jebel Ali over an inadequate nine furlongs. He ought to win soon when upped in trip.
Poor Fort McHenry promised a fair bit while getting handicapped, but was sadly fatally injured on his handicap debut.
If those were the sick notes, these were the clunkers. Systemic fooled me with a facile score at Newcastle a year ago, and then went nine races without even making the frame! He went up 13lb for that victory and, it could reasonably be argued, didn't have his set up (12f Newcastle, even paced first mile) thereafter; but excuses are easy to make. He wasn't beaten far on a number of occasions and his new trainer, Gary Moore, could well find opportunities on the all-weather if his current hurdling job fails to take root.
Idilico, like Systemic, has run nine times since. Unlike Systemic, he managed to win once - at 25/1! - and place twice more. It was surely no coincidence that all three win/placed efforts came in double digit fields with a little pace to aim at: Idilico does everything late in his races. Switched to Dianne Sayer (from Ian Williams) and reverted to hurdles, he's shown nothing in his last two races, but Dianne is a very shrewd operator and I expect Idilico will be winning over a trip around Ayr or the like this flat turf season. Big field and a bit of pace a must.
And that leaves the undoubted pinup star of, in truth, a fairly ragtag bunch, Rohaan, who proved that if you throw enough mud at the wall some of it will stick! Rohaan had already rattled off a hat-trick by the time he featured in this post a year ago. That didn't stop him snaffling four more scores since. And not just any old triumphs, either: after a Class 3 6f win at Lingers in March (6/1), he prevailed in Group 3 company at Ascot (22/1), Group 2 company at Haydock (33/1) and in the Wokingham (8/1). Whoosh!
That meant the bottom line was 30 runs, five wins, and a profit at SP of 69 points. Very healthy in literal terms but, let's be honest, I was lucky rather than good.
And so here we are again... in what follows, I've mostly concentrated on late season juveniles (now three-year-olds) or lightly raced types, in hope of avoiding a pitfall I've personally succumbed to a number of times: backing an exposed horse who produces one fine sectional effort before returning to its previous level of relative humdrum. Let's look at the new list...
Three-year-olds
Atrium
Trained by Charlie Fellowes for Highclere Thoroughbreds, this chap won two of five as a juvenile, most recently when catching my eye over the straight seven at Newcastle. There, off a mark of 80, he was given a solo on the far side of the field, sweeping through with a sustained acceleration before fading a touch in the last furlong. It was Atrium's second win over a straight 7f from four such attempts; of the other two, one was a fine third on debut and the other was when beaten behind subsequent Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf winner Modern Games in a well above par handicap.
The 4th and 5th from the featured Newcastle race have won since (only two to have run), and this now three-year-old son of Holy Roman Emperor can go in again off his revised peg of 85 when granted an even early tempo on a straight track.
Security Code
Flagging Johnny (and Thady, let us not forget Thady) G juvenile scorers is an almost certain means of finding both a future winner and a mid-term loss to SP, so a value judgement will be required the next day(s). If that's the 'buyer beware' out of the way, here's the sales pitch: Security Code was a debut winner for the Gosdens and, as Jon Shenton noted here, that's not as frequent an occurrence as many would believe. Sure, a 16.5% hit rate on juvenile bow (last five years) is pretty strong but it's far less enticing than the yard's near 24% second start rate.
Anyway, Security Code managed to win that first day, in late November at Wolverhampton over the extended mile. What was notable about his win was that he was almost five lengths off the lead with a quarter mile to go against an even to slow early pace (note the first three green/turquoise blocks) and yet, by the finish, he'd guzzled that deficit and put a further length-plus into Asean Legend, who held off the rest of the field, favoured as he was by the run of things.
To make up six lengths in a quarter mile off a steady pace is a fine effort, still more so that it was on debut, and more so again given he ran green and lugged in behind the pace setter in the straight. For all that this was probably a weak contest, the winner looked good - it will be interesting to see where next for Security Code.
Franz Strauss
While we're on Gosden juvenile debut scorers, how about Franz Strauss? Relatively cheaply bought (the price of a Mildenhall maisonette as opposed to a Mayfair mansion) for Godolphin, this son of Golden Horn showed a pleasing gear change to overcome a slightly tardy start over a mile at Newcastle last month. Again, it was not a lightning tempo through the first half mile, but this well named beast (Strauss of course was a virtuoso hornist) showed a fine turn of foot.
Franz Strauss is a half-brother to 100-rated six furlong horse, Regional, and could be suited by a drop back to seven furlongs (for all that Golden Horn implies further, not shorter).
Eydon
Like the winner, who, as we've seen, can be expected to step forward from first to second start, third-placed Eydon should be upgraded on the bare form as he was stopped in his run at a crucial moment. The 'lengths behind' chart above shows that Eydon lost two lengths a couple of furlongs out when caught in a pocket; he then rattled home in an 11.45 second closing furlong to get within three-quarters of a length of the winner.
As can also be seen by the '1 1 1' notation in the 'R W P' (runs/wins/places) columns, the interloper between the nominated pair, Nolton Cross, has done his bit by winning since.
By an unfashionable staying sire in Olden Times, out of a Frankel mare who stayed middle distances, Eydon has a right to improve for more of a trip and could be the best by his ol' man since the John Dunlop stayers Times Up and Harlestone Times.
Tiber Flow
Trained by William Haggas, this speedster recorded a good time figure and a double digit upgrade when scoring on his debut (Newcastle, 6f). Slow away there, the son of Caravaggio travelled well and quickened smartly.
A month later (2nd January), he was sent off at 1/3 in a four horse affair, again at Newcastle but this time over seven-eighths. Given four lengths to make up off very slow opening and middle sections, Tiber Flow charged through the last quarter mile in 22.12 seconds (standard to slow), usurping the optimally-positioned Zameka in the last furlong.
The third, King Of York, franked the form when all but winning at Southwell on Sunday and Tiber Flow looks like he can win a nice race off an opening perch of 86.
Beaches
More speculatively, and thus more likely to be a price next time, Beaches ran an encouraging race on his mark-qualifying third start. Whacked when too much use was made from the front on his middle start of three, Beaches achieved big upgrade figures in the efforts before and since when more patiently ridden, especially last time (Wolves, 8.5f, held up off slow gallop, given no chance to win) behind the smart Godolphin gelding, Symbol Of Light.
An opening rating of 72 looks very fair and Beaches ought to be capable of a good bit more first time in a handicap on the, ahem, sand.
Older horses
Annaf
This ex-Shadwell Muhaarar colt was unraced when sold to Mick Appleby for 16,000 guineas at the Autumn horses in training sale, and likely had had some issues. But he was a very good winner on debut at Newcastle (6f novice, 6th January), making a smooth effort to two out and then responding when asked for more, going away from his field at the line.
The visual impression is supported by a page that suggests he'll get further and, if he stands training, he is of obvious interest next time.
Caramelised
Another speculative entry is this five race maiden on the flat who has won two of four over hurdles. His first four flat spins were for Richard Hannon at distances up to a mile and a quarter after which he was sent to Alan King for a hurdling career.
Having perhaps reached his level over timber for now he was switched back to the flat but probably found a medium gallop too steady over a mile and a half at Wolves. The winner there, Trevolli, is unbeaten in two more since, and the fifth has also won, from a total of six subsequent starts by this field. A step up in trip and a bit of pace to aim at should see Caramelised very competitive.
The chart for that race is shown below, with various elements highlighted by green boxes.
I hope at this stage you'll be able to infer the points of note for yourself. If you can, you're equipped to go sniffing for your own interesting sectional contenders; if not, maybe have another whizz through the words and pictures above. Either way, I hope there has been something of interest herein and, if we're lucky, a bit of profit from following the nominated horses under suitable conditions.
Side notes
Southwell: Caution advised
Southwell changed from its legacy fibresand surface to a next generation tapeta product in late summer/autumn, and fixtures since the all-weather track reopened on 7th December have been on the new carpet. At this stage, we have not revised our draw, pace or sectional par data to reflect this and, as I've mentioned a number of times already since, users need to be aware of that.
Specifically in relation to sectional timings, we're seeing a lot of artificially high upgrade figures due to the less galloping nature of the tapeta compared with its fibresand predecessor. Although those upgrade figures should not be taken literally, they should also not be discarded completely: a big upgrade still equates to a strong performance, we just ought not to try to peg 'how' strong a performance it was just yet.
I am minded to reset the pars from the start of the new era at Southwell but even that is not without challenges: the going is currently perma-standard to slow while the tapeta beds in. It's difficult to know how long that will take.
Management summary: take care at Southwell but do not discount a big upgrade out of hand.
Sectional Data on Geegeez: A line on the future
We've licensed and published sectional timing data on geegeez.co.uk since July 2019 and, including the associated development effort to bring those data to life, the project cost runs to many tens of thousands of pounds. It was always the case that at some point sectional data would need to be priced in its own right - see this article from November 2019 for an early reference to that - and that time is likely to arrive in the first half of this year.
Any fee will be as an optional 'bolt on' to the existing Gold subscription, and it is not expected to be prohibitive: the aim here is not profit (though, naturally, as a business there is no shame in that), but merely to break even on the ongoing costs. The sunk chunk is my problem.
I hope before that time to be able to publish the Racing TV UK tracks (except Chelmsford, who remain outside of any timing agreement), but that very much depends on the usual contract wrangling and negotiations between racing's many splinter groups. Fingers crossed.
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/castlebar.jpg320828Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2022-01-17 19:53:262022-01-17 19:53:26Clock Watcher: January 2022
Not much happened on another of those weeks which comprise the Phoney War between Christmas and You Know What, writes Tony Stafford. Apart that is from the septuagenarian trainer who recorded his 274th, 275th, 276th and 277th wins around Kempton’s jumping course since the Racing Post rather irresponsibly delayed its first issue in 1988 until after See You Then had already won his three Champion Hurdles from 1985-7.
That’s right. Nicholas Henderson LVO OBE, now 71 and newly recovered from Covid, would hardly have been in the best of form on Saturday morning. The fog had enveloped that much-beloved, dead flat slice of Sunbury-on-Thames from early morning and with the temperature being unhelpfully slow to rise, prospects for the meeting looked slim.
Two morning inspections came and went and I’m pretty sure that if it hadn’t been principally for the fact that Kempton’s greatest supporter both in terms of runners and with regard to its welfare, had a hatful ready to go, Barney Clifford might not have given it a final late-morning look.
It had been like that, too, earlier on Hendo’s private Lambourn gallop at just after dawn but there the fog never lifted and the stars having their top-ups with big targets imminent managed to get from A to B with only their riders having a clue of what went on. A fit-again trainer did, though, make it to Kempton.
And meanwhile, Barney did wait and magically the fog lifted rather fortuitously as the river can almost be heard gliding alongside the old but now-disused Jubilee course on its way to Hampton Court and thence the sea. Barney’s job done, it was left to Henderson, having already in the morning confirmed Shishkin for the Clarence House Chase next weekend – maybe Willie Mullins and Energumene might be the ones to blink and pass up the pre-Festival date with two-mile destiny – to fill his boots.
It was at Kempton over Christmas that Shishkin did his demolition job on Tingle Creek scorer, Greaneteen. On Saturday a quartet of winners at 7-1 (Falco Blitz), 15-8 (Mister Fisher) 9-2 Caribean Boy, and 11/2 First Street, equated to an 821-1 four-timer. If instead of finishing second at 22/1 in the finale and beating First Street, the four-timer involving Mengli Khan would have been 2908-1.
In addition Call Me Lord was third at 33-1 in the featured Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle, unbelievably well into its 40’s honouring the memory of the great Fred Winter-trained champion. Henderson spent his time as assistant and also stable amateur with Fred and ever since his training career has been conducted mainly on the top courses in the Southern part of the country, albeit with some diversions to such as Aintree, Doncaster and Haydock. It was good to see perennially under-rated Jack Quinlan get a chance in a big race and he took it with both hands on Ben Case’s runaway Lanzarote winner, Cobblers Dream.
This week, again with little to talk about, I thought I’d have a brief look at elements of the Henderson career and found one rather nice oddity. In the Lerner and Loewe musical My Fair Lady, Eliza Doolittle, being taught elocution as she attemps to turn herself from a Covent Garden flower girl to a lady fit for society, has to enunciate : ”In Hertford, Hereford and Hampshire hurricanes hardly ever happen”, managing in true Cockney fashion to drop all the h’s. No such problem for ‘enderson!
There are no jumps racecourses in Hertford or Hampshire, but Nicky has his share of wins at Hereford. To draw out a rather unnecessary segment of his career totals, at three alphabetically consecutive northern tracks, which fit the tempo of that far-off line, we can say “To Carlisle, Cartmel and Catterick, Henderson hardly travels.” With respectively two from four, one from three and three from 11, his horses have been to each of them far fewer times than me!
Hoping that my arithmetic has not been too inaccurate, I believe Henderson has won around £47 million in stakes from his 3017 jumps winners in the post-1988 period of his momentous career. I had some great times from close up in the prime of life of Ray Tooth’s Punjabi, notably the four trips to Punchestown which, while bringing two Grade 1 wins, denied him a shot at any Chester Cup, a race I always believed would have suited him. When he won his Champion Hurdle I was home alone on the sofa recovering from a detached retina.
Newbury comes next numerically in the roll call of Henderson victories but it is with some surprise that while his 267 tally at his local track is only ten short of Kempton, his prize-money haul is a clear £1 million less, £3.4million to Kempton’s almost £4.5 million.
Prestbury Park has been only third in the winner count with 209 victories, but the financial return has been a massive £12.2 million. Aintree, Sandown and Ascot have all also been wonderful venues for this classiest of operations.
Over the years the constant characteristic, especially among the two-miler chasers, has been just how sleek and classy they all have looked. Even non-expert paddock watchers have a decent shot at recognising a Henderson horse without the aid of his distinctive sheet.
With the largely good-ground team firmly in form, and with the weather unseasonably dry for the time of year, hopes must be high for the Festival. Shishkin and last week’s brilliant Sandown Tolworth Hurdle hero Constitution Hill look two of the more obvious potential home winners.
I’ve had a number of Moaning Minnie shots at the handicappers throughout the last few months. Last week, though, talking to Nicky Richards he felt the new approach of giving more lenient initial marks to novice winners could help increase the number of horses running on their merits in those races.
I hate to think what the Irish officials make of the big-field novice events over there where five or six (at a stretch) with a chance are already detached from the rest of the field by a wide margin before the second flight. The second much larger group then has a private battle to fight out fifth or sixth place.
Where would you begin if you were a handicapper in those circumstances? Equally why should trainers of those inferior animals get into an early tussle with Messrs Mullins, De Bromhead and Elliott and have a hard race for no potential benefit… rather get an 85 rating and come to England, off 95 as it now is, and where the finishing straights are paved with gold!
Insurance companies have been good supporters of races at various big UK meetings of late and the Jonathan Palmer-Brown influence was felt with successive sponsorships of the race with the registered BHA title of the Golden Miller Chase, remembering the five-time Gold Cup hero of the inter-war period.
Palmer-Brown, a successful flat-race owner with the Hannons, through his company JLT, supported the two and a half mile novice chase which opens day three. Then a few years ago when JLT was being absorbed in the Marsh McLennan Agency in a deal brokered among others with Marsh’s Dominic Burke, Palmer-Brown – with the Festival’s well-being in mind – negotiated a continued initial period of support under the Marsh banner.
Burke, Chairman of Newbury racecourse, has been in the news lately. Last week he was a partner with Tim Syder in two winners. Firstly, Dr T J Eckleburg, trained by Olly Murphy, won a novice hurdle at Ludlow; and then on Saturday the Emma Lavelle-trained Éclair Surf was the wide-margin winner of Warwick’s valuable long-distance Classic Chase for the pair. This year the Marsh name has disappeared from Thursday’s opening race title and the contest will be henceforth known as the Turners Chase.
Whether Marsh McLennan’s US principals deemed the Marsh Chase brought little publicity benefit in terms of value for money or not, they might well have been advised that it could have been a different story this year. The Turners – nice ring to it, don’t you think? - is the chosen target for Bob Olinger, who won well at Punchestown yesterday. In so doing he was maintaining an unbeaten chase record in his two starts since strolling home clear in his novice hurdle test last March.
He is a very hot favourite for that race and trainer Henry De Bromhead will be basing his team around him, along with Honeysuckle on the Tuesday in her repeat Champion Hurdle challenge and Minella Indo and A Plus Tard, last year’s Gold Cup one-two. Can’t wait, and also can’t believe I got through 1,400 words without using ‘the C word’! [No, not that one! Ed.]
Week 2 of Gold Nuggets and, wouldn't you just know it, the racing is pants. That makes trying to identify interesting horses and angles tricky. In spite of that, I've a staying chaser with a jockey worth noting, a fit and versatile flat 'capper whose last run can be readily forgiven, a wide drawn pace horse in a truly awful contest, and a quick thought about the draw and pace on Southwell's new tapeta surface.
Pro tip: if I speak a little slowly for you, use the cog icon bottom right to change the playback speed.
With just two months to go until the Cheltenham Festival 2022, thoughts begin to turn to those high class clashes, none more so perhaps than the Blue Riband itself, the Cheltenham Gold Cup. A number of contenders that ran over the Christmas and New Year period are slated to head straight to Cheltenham so now seems an opportune time to have a rifle through recent - and slightly less recent - history in search of an ante post play.
In this post, I'll cover some Gold Cup trends, potentially favoured run styles, and of course the actual form of those with chances and a few without much hope!
Let's start with some historical context.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends
Trends seem to have acquired something of a bad rap in recent years, perhaps because factoids are taken out of context a little too often. But the reality is that history is our best guide to the future and, especially in top class races, a certain profile tends to come to the fore time and again. The Gold Cup is a race that places a premium on stamina, class, jumping and a touch of speed. Given the undulating nature of Cleeve Hill, against which the racecourse is set, contenders need also to possess balance: not for nothing is this considered such a champion's test. What follows will flesh out the importance of some of those attributes in numbers.
Official Rating
The best staying chasers in training tend to line up for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and only those towards the peak of the ratings pyramid normally prevail.
With the exception of 152-rated Lord Windermere, who just got the best of a bizarre five-way scrap up the hill in 2014, every other Gold Cup winner since 2007 has been rated at least 164. The average winning rating in that time, bar Lord Windermere, was a touch over 171.
Starting Price
The trouble with highly rated winners of the Gold Cup is that their rating is testament to their ability and that, naturally, is not missed by the market. So it is that, again excepting the impostor Lord W, every other Gold Cup scorer this century has returned 12/1 or shorter. The average winning return has been just under 5/1.
Age
Championship racing is a young man's game, the Gold Cup being a case in point. Aged ten, Cool Dawn was a shock 25/1 scorer in 1998. Since then, I make it 75 double-digit aged horses have faced the starter, none passing the post in front; eight did place, however. It seems to be a less frequent occurrence that older horses take their Gold Cup place these days and, when it does happen, it is often a star of previous years enjoying a(n unplaced) swansong.
Denman and Kauto Star fair monopolised the podium before and shortly after 2010, but as ten- and eleven-year-olds they could do no better than Fell-2nd-3rd-2nd between them in 2010/11. The other 13 times a double-digit aged horse has been sent off a single figure price since [at least] 1997, they managed a solitary fourth place between them (See More Business at 9/4 in 2000).
Meanwhile, more materially, the sweet spot is, well, any horse younger than ten. From micro representation this century, a six-year-old has won (Long Run, 2011), while the majority of winners are aged seven to nine, as are the majority of runners.
It is hardly a surprise that no age group was profitable to back blind but we can see from the colour coding the folly (or boldness, if you prefer) of siding with a veteran.
UK vs Ireland
Last year's overall pasting for the home team was reflected in the Gold Cup itself as Irish runners filled out the medal positions, Britain's top performer being the valiant eleven-year-old Native River in fourth. It is worth further noting that there were only four Irish runners in the field of twelve.
In 2020, Ireland's trainers saddled seven of the dozen runners, again taking top honours but this time ceding the consolation spots to the domestic quintet. Irish runners finished 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 10th and fell.
A year earlier, the first of Al Boum Photo's brace of GC's, an Irish-trained horse also ran second, with the remaining five raiders faring no better than 8th (three non-completions). Native River beat Might Bite for a British 1-2 in 2018, but prior to that it was Irish eyes smiling in both 2017 and 2016, where Team Green bagged the first four places home.
All that means is Ireland have won five of the last six renewals of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and current market sentiment points to a sixth pot in seven years.
Trainers
In 2014, the novice Coneygree recorded a memorable Gold Cup success for the small clan at Mark Bradstock's Old Manor Stables; a year later, Jim Culloty unleashed Lord Windermere from his handful of horses to bag glory. These days, most of the equine power is housed in just a few whale stables and romance, even relative romance, is in short supply. But then, perhaps it has been thin on the ground for a while longer: Nicky Henderson won a couple before Lord Jim, and prior to that was a spell of Paul Nicholls dominance.
We are unlikely to see an unfamiliar name engraved into the annals of Festival history this term.
Repeaters
A test as unique as the Cheltenham Gold Cup makes it something of a specialist's race. Best Mate famously reeled off a hat-trick of wins early in the century and, since then, both Kauto Star and Al Boum Photo have doubled up. More than that, the same horses seem to have hit the frame with regularity.
The 56 1-2-3-4 positions since 2008 were filled by just 38 individual horses. Names like Native River and Kauto Star and Denman and Long Run and Al Boum Photo return instantly to mind; but a little more noggin-rummaging is required to recall the triple-placed sticks Djakadam and The Giant Bolster. Hardy perennials all, and expect further familiarity nine weeks hence.
Identikit Gold Cup Winner
So where does that leave us? Not much further forward in truth: the challenge with markets like the Gold Cup is that there are few lights dimmed under bushels. We know we're most likely seeking a younger horse, prepared by a mega-trainer, probably in Ireland; and we know that horse will have a top rating and may have run well in last year's Gold Cup.
It's desperately obvious and yet, at the same time, there are a few pretenders who don't really fit that bill.
Of the 30 entered, a dozen don't have a 160+ rating, another four are aged ten (including Al Boum Photo and Champ), and Allaho is almost certain to run in the Ryanair barring the same owner's A Plus Tard's absence from the final declarations for this one. From those remaining it shouldn't be too hard to whittle a good few more:
Gold Cup Run Styles
The way races are run suit some horses and, at the same time, compromise others; it is always worth trying to figure out which side of that argument your wagered conveyance is likely to be. Attempting to project from this far out is not straightforward but we still ought to give it a lash. First things first: how have recent Gold Cups played out pace wise?
Last year, Minella Indo tracked a steady enough pace. He was never more than two or three lengths off the lead. In 2020, Al Boum Photo raced midfield but never more than about five lengths from a lead shared without contest; and the previous year, the same horse was ridden more patiently after a number of rivals battled for early primacy.
The story of these three winners? Right place, right time each time.
In 2018, Native River won from Might Bite, the pair engaging in a ding-dong skirmish from flag fall; in theory, both should have wilted and been passed. This was definitely not a winner I could have found as it looked on paper beforehand that they'd have at it exactly as they did, an approach in this sort of cauldron which typically spells c-u-r-t-a-i-n-s. Fair play to both.
Sizing John in 2017 was trying a longer trip and was ridden accordingly, with patience. That panned out ideally with, again, Native River disputing the lead at a fast tempo; back they came at the bizzo end on quick turf.
O'Faolains Boy set a fair but not searing tempo, aided and abetted by Smad Place, in 2016, the beneficiary of which was the handily-ridden Don Cossack. Remember him? And in 2015, Coneygree made every yard under an inspired ride from Nico de Boinville. de Boinville's measurement of pace there was brilliant, saving enough to repel a brace of Irish challengers up the hill to the line.
The message, in case it isn't clear enough yet, is that situation dictates optimal position: if it's steadily run, be close to the front; when there's a more contested gallop, a more patient ride is best. Regardless of how things pan out from an early speed perspective, out back is likely not a favoured position. The only time since 2009 when 'in rear' prevailed? That weird, wonky, bizarro Lord Windermere episode in 2014.
2022 Cheltenham Gold Cup Pace Map
So let's attempt to nail some jelly to the wall. Specifically, we'll try to conjecture a) which horses will run in the 2022 Gold Cup, and b) how they might be expected to assemble themselves through the first mile - and at what sort of an overall speed. Quackery? Here? How very dare you...
What we do have here on geegeez are future big race fields and, as a result, we can put our tools to work, including the PACE tab. Removing horses I perceive as unlikely to line up, the field looks this, based on an average of their most recent three run style scores:
Remastered and Conflated are the two who typically press on. They are also two of the lesser-rated animals in the entries: as such, the chances of them not lining up or simply not being quick enough against this calibre of opposition are high. Run Wild Fred, a novice likely heading elsewhere, is another who could have been trying to nose an advantage over the first few fences. Which is a verbose way of saying this field is not obviously loaded with early dash given the more probable starters.
As such, a prominent run style might be an advantage, which could be a positive for the likes of Minella Indo and Chantry House. Fancied runners such as Protektorat and A Plus Tard would do well not to gift easy lengths to talented rivals by lagging behind in the first half of the race. At least, that's my reading of this vaguest of vaguenesses.
2022 Cheltenham Gold Cup Form Guide
And so, enfin, let us peruse the past performances, in approximate market rank order.
The favourite, at around 7/2, is A Plus Tard, whose Betfair Chase demolition job at Haydock propelled him to the top of the lists. A model of consistency, APT has yet to finish outside of the first three in 13 Rules starts. Three of those races have been at the Festival where he has the full set of medals; his only gold, mind, came in a handicap, and he's since finished third in the 2020 Ryanair and runner up in last season's Gold Cup. Defeat was unexpected in the G1 Savills Chase over Christmas, but it might be that he had a harder race than it appeared in the Haydock mud; and it might simply be that that self-same Warrington sticky stuff has flattered to deceive once more, as it has done in the Gold Cup context with Bristol De Mai and Royale Pagaille in recent renewals.
For all that iffing and butting, A Plus Tard is the right favourite and almost certain to offer a run for the pennies. But he's no bargain, especially if his jockey - presumably Rachael Blackmore though she has another option - allows others a head start.
The one to deny APT a year ago was stable mate Minella Indo, himself falling cruelly short on the same sward twelve months earlier. Run down by Champ in the Festival Novices' Chase as a seven-year-old, he resisted Blackmore's persistent attempts to repeat the feat up that withering hill aged eight. We already know repeat winners are relatively commonplace, and that Indo usually figures prominently from tapes up, is theoretically in his pomp as a nine-year-old and, if we add in that he also won his sole other Fez spin, the G1 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle of 2019, what's not to like?
Well, P is for 'potato race' and also for 'pulled up', which was the fate that befell the reigning champ on his most recent outing. That scrabble tile on the scorecard came by way of Bryony's goading aboard Frodon in Kempton's King George: the preeminent female riders of their generation - heck, any generation pretty much - set a gallop way too hot to handle and paid the price. The race looks a 'chuck out' but it does follow a middling seasonal debut behind that pesky Frodon at Down Royal, too.
Looking again to the upside, Minella Indo has one target this season as he has had for the last few seasons: Cheltenham's Festival. He arrived in Gloucestershire last term with recent form of F4 and, unless taking in the Dublin Racing Festival between now and his return visit to England, he'll arrive this time with 3P as the last two efforts. He's 8/1.
A niggle with both of these Henry de Bromhead inmates is the form of the yard; while there's plenty of time for that to shake itself right, a 6.5% strike rate in the past month (28% placed) compares unglamorously with historical hit rates a smidge more than double the win and another five or six points on the place.
The third and final single figure price is offered about the chance of Galvin, trained by Gordon Elliott, and vanquisher of A Plus Tard in the Savills last time. An eight-year-old second season chaser, Galvin is another previous Festival winner: his big day came on the Tuesday last year when he saw off all-comers in "the four-miler" National Hunt Chase, which is of course no longer staged over four miles. Stamina is not in doubt then, nor is the quietly ascendant trajectory of his form; but he does tend to struggle more when it's wet.
The evidence is a form string on yielding or quicker of 111121111111 and on soft or heavy of 16F4222 (credit to Tony Keenan for highlighting this). I'm not really into long-range forecasts, nor do I know about water tables, evapotranspiration or turf husbandry; but I do know that, since 1997 - 24 Gold Cup renewals - the official going has been good to soft or quicker on all bar three occasions.
Next in the lists, at 10/1, is Al Boum Photo, winner of the 2019 and 2020 Gold Cups and third last year. That seemed to signal a changing of the guard, an impression that recently turning ten has done nothing to dispel. The substance of his Punchestown second to Clan Des Obeaux and his annual trot around Tramore on New Year's Day has corroborated the perception of this brilliant fellow yielding just a touch to the passage of time.
On the same price, and figuratively passing Al Boum in the lift on the way up, is Protektorat, Dan Skelton's great white (bay, actually) hope. A seven-year-old son of Saint Des Saints, he was a good but not great novice hurdler - won a Listed, beaten three times in Grade 2's - but seems to have taken a solid stride forward over fences. To wit, a novice chase season of 11221, the last win of which was a four length score in the Grade 1 Manifesto at Aintree; and, hitherto this campaign, a staying on close second over a trip seemingly too short under top weight in the Paddy Power, and a facile romp in the Grade 2 Many Clouds Chase at an extended three miles. The form of that latter race is seriously open to question: Native River ran his last race and was spent much further out than usual, and everything else bar Sam Brown failed to complete.
Protektorat has been Pricewise'd in the last couple of days, that value vacuum cleaner meaning he's a rum price for us Johnny Come Lately's, but he's not really one I'm yet persuaded by anyway. I do admire his upwardly mobile profile, though.
After that we move towards the longer grass, where contenders morph into pretenders in the main. Take 14/1 Tornado Flyer for example: a shock winner of a bonkers King George that culminated in a pace collapse. His only other effort at three miles was when 37 lengths (count them) behind A Plus Tard in the Savills Chase of 2020. His best run in the interim was when staying on into third in another mental burn up for last season's Ryanair; if they go a million, and if he stays, and if he can cut out the mistakes which are a feature of his performances, he might make the frame. As referenced earlier, at this early juncture the race looks unlikely to set up for him even assuming those other boxes got ticked.
What of 18/1 Chantry House then? Another rocking up after a last day 'P', assuming he doesn't stop off 'twixt now and then, this eight-year-old Seven Barrows green-and-golder was a fine winner at the Fez twelve months back, and an even finer winner in Liverpool three weeks later. That brace of novice G1's, the second of which was at beyond three miles, advertised his prospective Gold Cup claims, something a facile match score over The Big Breakaway did little to rebuke. And then, when it was all going so well, along came that King George; never going the pace there and succumbing to a couple of - these days - uncharacteristic blunders and pulling up.
If one can overlook that disappointment, Chantry House's Chelto form is strong: as well as the Marsh score last campaign he was also a fair third to Shishkin in that one's Supreme. But, with reference to the PU, and this applies equally to Minella Indo unless/until they bid to usurp it as their pre-Gold Cup form figure, the last horse to pull up prior to the Gold Cup and still get it done was... Cool Dawn in 1998. The 15 who attempted to overcome that stat since were all massive prices with the exception of 10/1 Lostintranslation two years ago: he managed third in spite of his trainer's lamentable form at the time, so all may not be lost. Lies, damned lies and statistics...
Asterion Forlonge - not on his feet for longe [harsh] - is a really talented horse who is probably just a bit soft. There's a fair argument that three of his four falls/unseats were because he is a wuss, scaring himself on the landing side when not foot perfect. I doubt he'll iron that out before March but, if he could take off and land adroitly throughout, he'd be interesting for all that it's (very) hard to forget his errant transit in the 2020 Supreme. He's 18/1 tops.
20/1 bar these, the first of which is Champ, now ten and last seen winning well in a Grade 1 hurdle. His last chase sighting was when pulling up after only six fences in the Gold Cup a year ago. Connections are publicly pointing towards this gig but I wonder if he might go t'other way in a very open looking and winnable Stayers' Hurdle section. Oh, and he's only had four runs in two years.
Of the rest, Allaho almost certainly goes Ryanair, Royale Pagaille has plenty to prove away from Haydock, Fiddlerontheroof has most of a stone to find on ratings though does have some good placed form at staying trips, Mount Ida surely goes to the Mares' Chase, and Lostintranslation pulled up in last year's GC and is now ten. The rest are almost impossible to fancy.
2022 Cheltenham Gold Cup Tips
Plenty to chew on in the above ahead of what looks an open and fascinating betting puzzle. No horse comes without some downsides and, as ever, the challenge is to weigh the negative against the prevailing odds. In my view, and that of most of the rest of the world, easily the three most likely winners are the trio at the head of the market; but their credentials are largely reflected in their prices.
A Plus Tard has been exposed a couple of times in Festival G1 company now and is short enough for all that he's hugely talented. Galvin may still be improving but 5/1 readily acknowledges that. He'll likely be a similar price on the day if it's good to soft ground, and then might be worth a saver; he'd probably be opposable on softer.
The one who might still be a little on the fat side is Minella Indo. Yes, we have to overlook a no better than fair first day of term and a very flat effort at Kempton; but there are credible excuses, and Indo's previous - as he arrived at last year's Gold Cup - offers hope he'll be a different horse in two months' time. 8/1 is all right, I think.
Of the remainder, I'm slightly tempted to have a little throwaway each way bet on Chantry House. Again, it was a bad one in the King George last time but, prior to that, he was 1113131111 including a win at last year's Festival. He has a rating that fits (just about), upside at the trip, handles the track, goes on most ground and usually races prominently. And he's 18/1. Or 16/1 NRNB and best odds guaranteed (if you still have it) with bet365. That latter option is playable small each way, I think.
2022 Cheltenham Gold Cup Suggestion
1 pt win Minella Indo 8/1 Paddy, Hills, Victor
½ pt e/w Chantry House 16/1 bet365 (NRNB, BOG) or 18/1 Skybet, Unibet
Regular readers will know of my interest in the impact of run style and, in this article, six National Hunt trainers come under the spotlight as I look for running style patterns which might lead to profitable angles, writes Dave Renham. The trainers in question are Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson, Jonjo O’Neill, Donald McCain, Venetia Williams and Alan King. I have looked at data between January 1st 2015 and December 31st 2021, seven years in total.
Before I start in earnest, however, a quick recap of running styles for all new readers and how Geegeez can help with understanding them.
The first furlong or so of any race sees each horse take up its early position and soon the horses settle into their racing rhythm. Normally these positions do not change too much for the first part of the race. The position each horse takes early can be matched to a running style - www.geegeez.co.uk has a pace section on its racecards that highlights which running style each horse has taken up early in a race. There are four run style groups, as follows:
Led – horses that take the early lead (the front runner). In National Hunt racing you generally get just one front runner, but occasionally there may be two or more horses disputing the early lead;
Prominent – horses that track close behind the leader(s);
Mid Division - horses that take up a more midfield position;
Held Up – horses that are held up near to or at the back of the field.
These running styles are assigned a numerical figure ranging from 4 to 1; Led gets 4, Prominent 3, Mid Division 2 and Held Up 1. Having numbers assigned to runners helps greatly with analysis as you may have seen in previous articles.
Run Style Analysis: All races
To begin with, let's take a look at all National Hunt races combined, breaking down the running styles of all horses for each of our six trainers. Connections, most notably the trainers, can clearly have a significant influence on the running style of their horses: most will give instructions to their jockeys before the race telling them how they would prefer the horses to be ridden.
Below, the table shows which percentage of each trainer's runners displayed one of the four running styles. I have included the figure for ALL trainers (1527 trainers combined!) as the 'control':
As can be seen there is quite a contrast; both Alan King and Jonjo O’Neill are clearly largely averse to sending their runners into an early lead. In contrast Donald Mc Cain, Venetia Williams and, to a lesser extent, Paul Nicholls seem happy to send a decent proportion of their runners to the front early.
In terms of their success with early leaders / front runners – all of them exceed 20% when it comes to strike rate (see graph below). For the record, 20% is the average winning figure for front runners in all National Hunt races.
Henderson and Nicholls have a simply stunning record with front runners – a strike rate for both of pushing 40%. Now I have mentioned before that if as punters we had access to a crystal ball pre-race to see which horse would be taking the early lead, it would be a license to print money. Here are the hypothetical profit/loss figures for the front runners of the six trainers to once again prove that point:
Combining all trainers in the list would have yielded an SP profit of £394.91 to £1 level stakes. Now, as we know, predicting which horse is going to take the early lead is far from an exact science. However, with some detailed analysis of the trainers in the race, as well as the horses concerned there will be opportunities to maximise our chances of nailing down the likely front runner.
Run Style Analysis: Chases
I have noted in previous pieces that front runners in chases make the biggest profits in terms of National Hunt racing, so let us see how our six trainers perform in these races. Here are their win strike rates with front runners in chases. In the table I have included their All races front running SR% to facilitate comparison:
Similar figures for each trainer although Alan King’s figure drop about 5%.
And here are the hypothetical profits from identifying and backing these front runners in chases over the course of the seven years in the sample:
All six trainers would have been in profit to SP – a combined profit of £350.38 to £1 level stakes indicates why chases are so ‘front runner’ friendly.
I have also looked at the percentage of their runners which displayed a front running style in chases – as with the All Race data I shared earlier, two trainers (King and O’Neill) are far less likely to send their charges to the front early:
It still staggers me every time I see trainers that send a low percentage of their runners to the front early. Just one in twelve of Jonjo O’Neill’s runners goes into an early lead in a chase. However, when they do, they win nearly 25% of the time (one race in four). Compare this to his record with hold up horses in chases. Nearly 45% of all Jonjo O’Neill’s runners in chases are held up early – but just 11% go onto win. It’s nuts! [For all that there might be other reasons for holding certain horses up on some occasions - Ed.]
Hold up horses do not perform well in chases either – to illustrate this here are the chase records of the six trainers with their hold up runners:
The summary on hold up horses is low strike rates and huge losses all round. This group will, of course, include a subset of no-hopers though, in relation to such high profile trainers, there will be fewer of these than for most other handlers.
Run Style Analysis: Hurdle races
Generally speaking, hurdle races do not offer as strong a front running edge as chases, but it is still preferable to lead early compared with other running styles.
With that in mind, let us review the hypothetical profits from our trainers' front runners in hurdle races:
Some good strike rates for Nicholls, Henderson and King, but not the wall to wall profits seen in the chases analysis.
It is noticeable that, as a whole, the six trainers send out a smaller proportion of front runners in hurdle races as compared to chases. This will be in part due to typically smaller field sizes in chases then in hurdles, but that doesn't fully account for the differentials. The graph below illustrates:
Alan King has sent just less than 4% of his hurdlers into an early lead despite these runners scoring 35% of the time. As a comparison, his held up runners (which account for 37% of all King's hurdlers) won just 13% of the time.
Run Style Analysis: Full Summary
To conclude, I'd like to share the individual trainer win strike rate data across all four running styles in different race types. I have included National Hunt flat races, too. These races do not give front runners as strong an edge although they still perform better than any of the other three running styles.
The table below gives a very clear picture as to why run style is so important. It shows the significant edge front runners have overall; it also shows that prominent runners perform far better than horses that race mid division or are held up.
- Dave Renham
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/NavajoPass_BuveurdAir_UnibetChampionHurdleTrial_Haydock_2021.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2022-01-10 12:17:142022-01-10 12:17:14Run style analysis of a selection of National Hunt trainers
In these quality-starved weeks after the Christmas and New Year holiday periods, we seek largely in vain for a few strands of straw from which to build a brick or two of worthwhile form, writes Tony Stafford. The obsession with identifying UK horses capable of winning at Cheltenham 2022 is beginning to look a bit like Nicky Henderson – stricken at the weekend at home in Lambourn with Covid – alone against the world.
Actually the bricks-from-straw metaphor more accurately refers to my flimsy resources in putting together enough thoughts to make a 1200-1600-word weekly article at this time of year. Always the first glimmer of optimism is provided by the <clichés will say "rapidly-"> but for the sake of accuracy it’s "steadily-"increasing daylight.
I popped out on Sunday at 4.15 p.m. to the local shop and it was still light but already dark when I got home. Nine weeks to Cheltenham means 90 minutes more at either end of the day. Soon after, the clocks go forward and so do we. But that’s not saying much about racing.
The Henderson horse charged with defending his trainer’s and nation’s honour has instantly switched from the superb Shishkin, who some believe could find the brick wall of Willie Mullins’ former UK-raced pointer Energumene ending his Queen Mother Champion Chase hopes.
No, a new star emerged over the weekend in the shape of Constitution Hill, named after the road that flanks the big garden wall alongside Buckingham Palace on one side and Green Park in London’s West End on the other.
Constitution Hill, ridden by Nico De Boinville in the colours of Michael Buckley, put in an extraordinary performance in the mud at Sandown Park on Saturday, running right away from a quintet of nice novices, going two to their one as the old commentators used to put it.
Rarely do you witness horses coming up an incline in muddy conditions seemingly giving no mind to the arduous nature of the task. He could have been running up to the winning post on good ground at Royal Ascot so little did he look like a jumper somewhere near the end of his tether, as most animals have been this past couple of weeks.
Constitution Hill was the sixth Henderson winner of the Tolworth Hurdle, now sponsored by Unibet but a race of several guises and a few venues with seasonal abandonments, meaning Ascot, Warwick and Kempton have all played temporary host to this much-coveted novice prize.
A glance back at its history since inauguration in 1976 reveals the inevitable Desert Orchid in 1984, so he’s on that roll of honour as well as the Clarence House (initially Victor Chandler Chase) as was chronicled last week.
Henderson’s first of six, New York Rainbow in 1992, was also owned by Buckley, but I recall his owning smart horses even earlier than that. For almost three years between 1969 and late 1971 I was on the Press Association racing desk and just before I left, John De Moraville, son of the former trainer of the same name who handled the wonderful stayer and later breed-defining jumps stallion Vulgan, joined the team. John later became Bendex at the Daily Express, following the colourful Charles Benson in the role. He was still later a Jockey Club/BHA jumps handicapper.
John was half-brother to Peter Bailey, a successful jumping trainer at the time who had a youthful Michael Buckley among his owners. In those days his colours were white and black, halved I think, almost in the Oppenheimer manner and with sleeves reversed – one white, one black.
His best chaser at the time was Strombolus and while I could not find that horse’s career on wikipedia, I did find him participating in a race on the internet. I keyed in his name and was directed to the film of the 1979 King George VI Chase at Kempton Park, which was won by Tommy Carmody on Silver Buck.
As Peter O’Sullevan informed the gathered crowd, which included yours truly, victory would be the jockey’s second in a row as he had also ridden Gay Spartan to success 12 months earlier.
Tommy, who joined from Ireland as stable jockey to Tony Dickinson, would win it again on Silver Buck a year later for the hat-trick by which time Michael had taken over the licence from his father. It was during that time that Dickinson junior told me: “I’ve had that little sod William Haggas ringing me up from Harrow School again telling me how to train his mother’s horse!” Christine Feather owned Silver Buck.
The Harewood team was to make it five-in-a-row in the race when, after the 1981 renewal was lost to the weather, Wayward Lad collected the next two. Both horses featured in the Famous Five Gold Cup of 1983 but Carmody left after completing his hat-trick. He was supplanted principally by Robert Earnshaw – still working for the BHA as a stipe the last I saw – Graham <sorry mate, you can’t have a trainer’s licence> Bradley, Kevin Whyte, Dermot Browne (ahem!) but plenty more.
I used to talk to Michael most days then and when I heard Carmody, already a prominent rider in Ireland, was joining the team I decided to back him for the jump jockeys’ title and suggested to Robert Glendinning, the Daily Telegraph Racing Editor, he should back him too.
Bob duly agreed to take a tenner of my bet. A few months later, Bob was about to retire and on the Friday evening before Grand National Day as he was finishing that night he handed over the ten quid with a grunt – “worst bet I ever had!” in his best West Yorkshire tones.
It was one of my many impecunious days, so, aware there was one race still to run at Aintree, I dived down to Corals in Fleet Street and had a fiver each way on a Peter Easterby horse ridden by Alan Brown and it won at 15/2.
Also at that time I had a regular weekend slot on BBC Radio London with Wembley ice hockey announcer Norman De Mesquita – on his weeks off, substitute Simon (brother of outrageous actor Oliver) Reed, who still commentates on ice skating. I’d go off on my Friday lunch break to Marylebone High Street where Derek Thompson’s first wife (of three) Jenny was a producer.
My interview went out in a sports programme at tea-time majoring on the big meeting of the following day with a repeat on the Saturday morning show which ended at 11.30. When we did the interview I was very strong on the Gordon Richards-trained Tamalin, but by the time I got back with my winnings, he had been declared a non-runner.
A quick look through put me on to Rubstic, so I parlayed the winnings into 25 each way on him at 33’s, then called Norman to offer to come in the following day and do the slot live. The complication was that I lived in Hertfordshire and needed to bring the family to my mother-in-law in Highbury. We left in plenty of time, but had to stop three or four times as the kids were all feeling car-sick. Listening to the show as I neared the studio, I heard Norman saying I was about to arrive. It was a tense few minutes but I made it to the studio at 11.22; duly tipped the winner and on Monday popped in to Corals again to collect. Six months later I was Racing Editor!
That 1979 King George had another link to the Tolworth Hurdle as the horse that won the first running, Grand Canyon, was in the line-up. A New Zealand-bred horse, he was trained in Sussex by Derek Kent and ridden by long-time Jockey Club/BHA starter Peter Haynes. Grand Canyon shared a good pace with Tied Cottage, later that season the disqualified winner of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, ruled out after his feed was found to be contaminated. Grand Canyon fell and Tied Cottage faded into fourth in the King George in question.
And a further link to this weekend was that Tied Cottage’s trainer was Dan Moore, who a decade earlier had been the highly assured handler of L’Escargot, my favourite jumper of all time and the most underrated, too, in my opinion. Dan and his wife Joan, parents of long-standing trainer Arthur, are commemorated every year in the big novice race on yesterday’s Fairyhouse card.
Silver Buck, later the 1982 Gold Cup hero, had to be ridden right out at Kempton to hold off Jack Of Trumps, one of the earliest high-class horses owned by a very youthful J P McManus. Third was another smart performer in Border Incident, trained by Richard (Lord) Head.
Strombolus was up there in the first four for a long way but gradually weakened; he subsequently won plenty of good long-distance handicaps. Buckley has done really well for almost half a century, but one of his lesser-known associations was with the 2008 Triumph Hurdle winner, Zaynar.
During the Victor Chandler Chase times, Nicky often tried to get the bookmaker into owning horses but ownership didn’t really interest him - unless he could have a major successful punt. Zaynar, who was an Aga Khan horse with a good jumping pedigree but a non-winner in three flat races in France, was offered to several people including Ray Tooth, who had Punjabi running in that year’s Champion Hurdle – he finished third. Eventually a mutual friend encouraged Chandler to buy the horse with him, initially 50/50.
Each half was later sub-divided in portions of varying size with an ownership name of Men In Our Position, an appropriate one to encompass any situation. Zaynar was unbeaten in his novice year winning the Triumph and his next two the following season before losing at 1/14 at Kelso after which he never reached the heights anticipated.
The entertaining Victor Chandler biography by the multi award-winning author Jamie Reid – Put Your Life On It – recalls that Triumph Hurdle. But the friend I mentioned remembers it for a different reason. He says with some irritation that while Michael Buckley had the smallest share, he left Prestbury Park that night with the magnificent trophy in his possession.
Buckley has had many great horses, and when for several years he reduced his involvement with jumpers and therefore Henderson, he built a significant flat-race team with Jamie Osborne. They had tremendous success together and it was by only a matter of inches that he was denied what would have been his biggest win of all.
In 2014 the three-year-old Toast Of New York, a £60k yearling buy, finished a neck runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita on the back of success in that year’s UAE Derby, and arguably should have been awarded the race in the stewards' room. He cashed in, selling the horse to Qatari interests.
Michael Buckley can look back with satisfaction at his life of involvement with top-class horses and big-race success. Who’s to say that the best of all is not still to come with Constitution Hill, starting at Cheltenham in two months?
TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ConstitutionHill_TolworthHurdle.jpg320830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2022-01-10 09:03:522022-01-10 09:07:18Monday Musings: Hill has the Constitution for Cheltenham
In this first in a new series of videos and blog posts, I'll be looking at various elements of Geegeez Gold in search of a value approach, and maybe a value winner or two along the way as well.
Today's episode focuses on the importance of heavy ground form; and run style at a couple of courses and distances on the all weather.
Pro tip: if I speak a little slowly for you, use the cog icon bottom right to change the playback speed.
It is with the usual trepidation that I share what follows, fully cognisant that not all receive such things in the spirit with which they are intended. However, regular readers will know how important I believe it is to 'walk the talk', which is why I have begun to share my betting P&L on an annual basis. You can review last year's here, for example, should you so wish.
In the video below you'll find a full rundown of the withdrawals from and deposits to my bank account in 2021. Before you look at that, though, a few important points:
Plenty bet more than me, plenty bet less than me. So what?! This is not about absolute figures, it's about the art of the possible, and how fun and profit (whatever that figure looks like for you - after all, getting paid pennies for having fun is a great outcome) are not mutually exclusive.
I'm not sharing this to show off (obviously) but, rather, to show off Geegeez Gold, which of course I use almost exclusively (along with odds comparison data).
This is not turnover, which was much higher. Funds in accounts generally get played many times before withdrawals are made.
I have LOTS of accounts, plenty of them now useless, and I use all of the ones where I can still bet more than £5! Taking 3/1 when 7/2 is available is just stupid if your bottom line is a key consideration: please don't do it.
I had plenty of small losing accounts in 2021, and one big losing account (Betfair, which I often use to hedge pool bets) as well as a couple of good winning ones; that's a function of how I bet.
Guessing on racing betting turnover is tricky but probably in the region of £80,000. So that's a moderate 3% or so ROI, which is a little shy of what I'd aspire to (around 5%).
These figures are never life-changing, but to get paid a bit for having, like, weeks of fun is outlook-changing. I bought more bits of racehorses in lieu of being able to go away much. 🙂
I have around £1,500 in account balances, and also some healthy looking ante post tickets - but similar was true last year, so those can find their place in the 2022 digest.
It has become clear to me from the small debits on my bank statement that I drink too much posh café coffee... [There are worse vices, right?]
So here goes: a recording of me downloading 2021's bank transactions and removing the non-betting ones to leave just the betting entries.
Matt
p.s. How did YOU do? Not really interested in 'actual money' figures, but rather did you make a profit? Did you make a smaller loss (which is the single most important step any punter can take)? Or was 2021 tougher for you punting-wise? What worked for you, or not? Leave a comment below and share your experience.
Reasons to be cheerful in the wider world are that, while that pesky Omicron variant of the dreaded Covid virus is spreading like warm butter on hot toast, its implications are - so far - less brow-furrowing. That hopefully means we can crack on with life's more engaging head scratchers, such as solving racing sudokus.
And, to that end, allow me to share the plan for 2022, or at least the early part of it, here on geegeez.co.uk.
Editorial
Did you miss me? 2021 was a big year for development and side projects, which meant I personally had far less time to spend researching and writing on these 'ere pages. Maybe that was a miss for you, perhaps/probably it wasn't. Either way, I'm committed to scribbling more this year. I'll be asking all sorts of questions related to the betting aspects of racing (in the main), and using whatever data I can get my hands on to answer them. And that will happen on a more structured schedule, too.
Plus we're going to introduce a midweek preview of a weekend or major Festival race: the betting markets are up for the major Saturday races from early in the week and there are some opportunities to get a flyer even though we'll not be in possession of all the facts - you know, like draw, going, who's actually running, that sort of thing! - at that nascent stage. Sam or I will usually be in charge of this segment, starting next week.
And we'll also be producing more content looking at the day's bread and butter racing through the prism of Geegeez Gold. The aim of these pieces - which will vary between blog and video posts - will be to demonstrate how Gold can be used to identify interesting races, interesting horses in those races, and interesting ways to potentially play those horses. That's on top of Chris's excellent and existing Racing Pointers daily series.
Finally, there's a metric tonne of great stuff in our daily emails. From course guides (just click the course name in the email), to highlighting races of the day, to latest news headlines, to our Feature of the Day, to - my personal favourite - an article from the archives (there is some genuine treasure in this section - check out this, this, this or this, already re-published this year if you don't believe me), there is something for every racing fan - and plenty for most.
If you're not yet receiving our daily emails, you are missing out. You can sign up on the in-page form here (it's big and yellow, you can't miss it) to start getting early morning intel.
Here's how our early 2022 editorial schedule will look:
Daily
Chris's Racing Insights, looking at a race each day from a value and Gold perspective. These can be found here.
Our Racing Bulletin, an on-site version of the daily email, which can be found here.
Latest news articles, syndicated from our friends at the Press Association. They can be found from the home page.
Monday
Tony Stafford's Monday Musings: thoughts of a life-long racing journalist, owner, punter, racing manager and editor.
Tuesday
Something to chew on: a data-driven article aimed at sharpening your betting focus in one area or another of the racing game. These will be written by either me, Dave Renham, or occasionally Jon Shenton or a guest contributor. And they will be good. Very good.
Wednesday
An eye to the future: an early look at either one of the weekend's big races or a major Festival contest with a view to nailing a fancy price about an intended runner with a squeak.
Thursday
Panning with Gold: yes, I know that doesn't really make sense, but you get the drift. Thursdays will be for poring over the form via Geegeez Gold in search of little playable nuggets. Using different components from week to week, the aim is to land on a couple of good winners but, much more than that, to show you how to do the same.
This will generally be produced by me, but this is a spot where I'd hugely welcome contributions from our Gold user community: that might mean writing a piece about how youuse Gold, rather than a preview of races. Such offerings are always hugely popular, so don't be shy.
Please do drop me a line if you fancy having a crack! [Don't worry overly about your writing style, I can tidy that up: we're much more interested in how you approach the puzzle using the Gold toolkit].
Friday
Weekend Pointers: Sam's aggregation of relevant blog posts, Andy's big race trends, and anything else we have to hand that might aid you in your quest for a wonderful weekend winner.
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There is so much to engage and entertain in the above, I hope. And, of course, feel free to dip in and out of the bits of interest to you. There are only so many hours in the day, and it might just be possible to spend all of the waking ones on this site!
Gold Development
Alongside the written and spoken words, our number-crunching machines will be levelling up, too, bringing you more features and insights within Geegeez Gold. There are plenty of smaller changes, and a couple of bigger ones, already on the cook. Those I'm able/happy to reveal right now are as follows:
Coming Very Soon
Small changes including Proximity Form on racecard horse form, inline form on Profiler tab, 'My Races' feature on the cards menu page (to create 'your own' race meeting at the top of the page from those races that interest you), and a few other bits and pieces.
Coming Soonish
A new weapon in the toolkit, we'll be adding a bet calculator to the Tools section of the site. Win or each way, singles, accumulators and all of the most common multiple bets will soon be calculable right here.
Springtime
Perhaps most excitingly, for me at least, we're about to commence development on a bigger piece to significantly upgrade Query Tool. This has been the one that got away for too long, and I'm stoked to think what extra power we'll be adding in this space. We will definitely be adding the ability to specify elements of a horse's previous race(s), as well as some new variables such as 'Days Since Last Run'.
Importantly, we need to ensure that any rewrite of Query Tool has zero impact on your existing QT Angles, and that, in fact, may be the most challenging component. We'll obviously test the heck out of things to ringfence your saved data, which is sacrosanct to us as well as you. [And, in the Armageddon scenario, we keep backups of everything!]
Depending on how progress goes, we'll be looking at a release around April time, I suspect: it'd be great to be able to offer those extra QT insights in time for the flat season kick off.
Beyond that
"There is always more to do", as I'm fond of relating to our brilliant database (++) man, Dave; and the development won't stop post-QT upgrade. I have a number of thoughts in mind, including broader odds comparison data, exchange price data, stride and cadence / sectional upgrade data, race trends pages and more. We have the data access and technical capability to bring any or all of these to life; it is simply a question of how desirable they are to you, our valued Gold subscriber. If you have a preference, or an alternative suggestion, please feel free to include it in the comments below.
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So that's what happening hereabouts in the now and near future. We've continued to invest in making geegeez.co.uk the site you want it to be since the beginning, almost 14 years ago (crikey). And, as long as you still ask for more, we'll try to bring it.
Thank you, as always, for your support. We - I - value it immensely and never take it for granted.
Wishing you a Happy, Fun, Profitable - and most of all, HEALTHY - 2022.
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/2022_RoadMap.jpg320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2022-01-04 09:27:342022-01-04 09:27:34The Shape of 2022 on Geegeez
With Boxing Day falling on a Sunday this festive season, the adjustments to the official handicap ratings for the entire Christmas to New Year period will be eagerly awaited by trainers and owners tomorrow (Tuesday) morning, writes Tony Stafford. I’d love to see the two-mile chase handicapper take full and realistic account of Shishkin after his flawless reappearance run at Kempton.
Equally, I’d expect him to allow him to take up the engagement in the Clarence House Stakes at Ascot, the sole early-closing UK jumps race in the coming three weekends, on January 22.
Nicky Henderson, having been vindicated by his decision to abort plans for the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown last month as Shishkin was not ready in favour of Kempton’s Grade 2 Desert Orchid Chase on the second day of the Christmas meeting, now faces another conundrum.
“Do we avoid Ascot and a pre-Cheltenham encounter with Energumene?” will be Henderson’s question as he ponders whether to take on Willie Mullins’ unbeaten chaser who had been equally silky on his return in another Grade 2 race, the Hilly Way, at Cork earlier last month.
Shishkin’s disdainful mastery of Tingle Creek winner Greaneteen and Bryony Frost last week was so emphatic that Mullins’ comment that Energumene will take his place in the Ascot field so early in the piece might have been a tactic to try to inject a shade of uncertainty in the Henderson psyche.
The Ascot race, initially a handicap sponsored by Victor Chandler, had its reputation immediately cemented in 1989 when Desert Orchid won the first running under 12st, getting up late under Simon Sherwood to deny Panto Prince who received 22lb. The valiant grey got up having lost the lead when making a rare mistake at the final fence.
That contest is sure to figure high up among the many memories for Desert Orchid’s trainer David Elsworth, who recently announced his retirement after an outstanding career as a dual-purpose handler spanning half a century.
In its handicap years two other top two-milers to grace its honours board were Waterloo Boy and Well Chief, but when it became a Grade 1 conditions event, the quality rose to the top. Fields were small from the outset but most of the true greats of two-mile chasing were directed there and usually won the race.
Paul Nicholls, as with most steeplechases of the modern era has been a leading light, firstly with two wins by Master Minded , whose second triumph in 2011 was by the then minimum short-head in the face of a flying finish from Somersby, trained by Best Mate’s handler Henrietta Knight and ridden by Bryony’s elder brother, Hadden Frost.
In 2008, Hadden, in his time as a flat-race apprentice with Richard Hannon, and still with a 5lb allowance, won a claiming race at Lingfield for Raymond Tooth with a filly called La Colombina. Hadden had his best season with 32 the previous season and another 18 including La Colombina in 2008.
With increasing weight taking over – he already had a first jumps success before Ray’s winner - he quickly showed that father Jimmy’s talent had been safely passed on. That second place on Somersby came in the second of six consecutive seasons when he made double figures before retirement.
Bryony had her first rides in 2012-13 and for the last five campaigns she has clocked up between 36 and 50 wins every year, standing on 36 so needing 15 more by the end of April to achieve a career best.
She will have been hoping for one of the major wins associated with the Nicholls stable over the holiday period. While that didn’t work out, she clearly has the trainer’s full confidence to the extent that she shares almost equal standing in the Ditcheat team with stable jockey Harry Cobden.
Let us return to the Ascot race. After Master Minded, the next big name was the peerless Sprinter Sacre, a 1/5 chance when the race had to be transferred to Cheltenham in 2013. The oddity was that Sprinter Sacre and his equally lauded stablemate Altior each won it only once. Altior’s victory came three years ago as a 10-1 on shot in a three-horse race.
Gary Moore’s Sire De Grugy was the intervening horse between Sprinter Sacre and the race’s most prolific hero Un De Sceaux, three times a winner for Willie Mullins and even as an 11-year-old in 2020 good enough to share favouritism with Defi Du Seuil and finish runner-up as the Philip Hobbs star won his second consecutive Clarence House.
Last year it was Defi Du Seuil’s time, as sure as the years turn, to pass on the baton, this time to Kim Bailey’s First Flow while he, Defi, laboured home in fifth.
Un De Sceaux won 23 of his 34 career starts and considering his class and admirable durability, has a very proletarian pedigree. His sire is the little-known French-bred and -raced high-class hurdler Denham Red. That horse’s sire Pampabird never raced but his paternal grandsire Pampapaul certainly did. A top Irish juvenile, winner of among others the National Stakes for Sir Noel Murless’ younger brother Stuart, he was a classic winner at three.
Pampapaul sprang a major surprise when defeating subsequent Epsom Derby hero The Minstrel, and earlier Newmarket 2,000 victor Nebbiolo (from The Minstrel), in the Irish 2,000 Guineas.
More pertinently for the present day, and no doubt a factor in Willie Mullins’ admiration of him before he joined the team, is that he is also the sire of Energumene. So we’re in for a treat. Here we have two horses with unblemished chase records at a similar stage of their development, each with one overall defeat on his card, facing up. Pistols at dawn: who will blink first? Is it too good to be true?
Encouragingly, neither trainer, unusually for Mullins at any rate, has an alternative at the initial entry stage. It cost £150 and to run it’s another £600, fair enough for the £160k prize which brings £85,000 to the winner.
But there is a supplementary on the Monday, so two weeks from today, and that will set back any takers £5,000. With a chance of either of the big two’s standing aside, it was sensible to sit back and wait as that sort of equation might be worth chancing.
I began by musing whether Shishkin’s rating will have been altered after Kempton. He went into the race 2lb higher than Greaneteen – 169 to 167 – and was receiving 3lb. I would expect a rise but knowing official handicappers’ propensity to fudge, would not be shocked if he gave him 171, the same as Energumene.
Already after only a nascent chase career, that figure puts the young Irish horse within 1lb of Un De Sceaux. I believe Shishkin has the potential to eclipse his brilliant predecessors Sprinter Sacre and Altior. I just cannot get out of my mind the way he gathers and then finds extra pace and strength to dominate his opponents in the closing stages.
Nicky had a great holiday, also winning the Christmas Hurdle emphatically on King George Day with 2020 Champion, Epatante. The re-match with unbeaten Honeysuckle is another to savour.
Honeysuckle did not appear over the holiday period so remains blissfully unbeaten and a sure-fire favourite to defend her title in ten weeks’ time – yes that’s all it is! But some of her prime Henry De Bromhead stablemates did appear and after the eclipse of Minella Indo at Kempton, A Plus Tard’s position as Gold Cup favourite is far less secure after his last-stride defeat by Gordon Elliott’s Galvin in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown.
While Elliott (15 wins from 94 runners) and Mullins (23 from 81) have been cleaning up over the past two weeks, De Bromhead has had the paltry return of just four wins from 74 runners. Envoi Allen did scrape home less than impressively dropped in grade and distance at Leopardstown but hardly enhanced his reputation either.
In mitigation, only three of the 74 started favourite, but it doesn’t take long for the betting public and more pertinently the people who frame the odds on which their bets are based to sense a problem. Watch, if not this space, certainly the day-to-day progress of a man who has performed, along with stable jockey Rachael Blackmore, the training equivalent of a miracle to join the big time so quickly and effectively.
As perhaps Henry is beginning to discover It is one thing to get up there, quite another to continue to repel the legions of expensively-acquired and brilliantly-prepared horses that the two incumbent top table teams can throw into the action year on year.
In the UK the news of Charlie Johnston’s now sharing the licence to train at Kingsley House, Middleham, alongside rather than assisting father Mark, certainly surprised me, but equally obviously, as most of the coverage suggested, nothing will change save the letter headings.
Certainly I do not anticipate any reduction in the flow of winners with what is nowadays the routine target for the team of 200 a season. It’s an amazing record and while Mark alone will never make the 5000 winners we thought was inevitable, it is equally unlikely that anyone will beat his score for many years to come.
Kingsley House is a remarkable operation and not least for one fact I’ve never forgotten of what Alan Spence, a long-standing owner, told me one day. He said: “I was telling <trainer A> that Mark is my cheapest trainer in terms of cost. He/she <so no clue there either!> said what are you talking about? He charges £xxx a day, much more than me!”
“I replied, yes, and when I get his invoice every month, even if a horse of mine had to have an expensive operation, it’s all on one line – everything included. When I get yours it runs to four pages with all the extras!”
Good luck to the new team, well actually the old team, not forgetting the wonderful Deirdre. So it’s Happy New Year especially to them, but also everyone else who takes the time to read these words.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Shishkin_DesertOrchid_December2021.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2022-01-03 08:45:182022-01-03 08:59:20Monday Musings: A Quick Look Back Before We Advance
The Irish duly won the 2021 Ladbrokes King George VI Chase, but not with either of the pair which shared in the five-strong short list suggested a week ago, writes Tony Stafford. The winner was 28-1 shot Tornado Flyer, ridden by Willie Mullins’ nephew Danny, successful for the third time over fences but after a losing sequence of nine.
Unusually, all five of the pretty obvious principals turned up, in one form or another and we certainly didn’t see the real Minella Indo, already well beaten when pulled up by a frustrated Rachael Blackmore a long way from home. He and Frodon, ridden by Bryony Frost, evidently wanted to put on a show of strength, not necessarily from the saddle, but certainly under them as their mounts shared a fast pace through the first part of the race.
Frodon and Bryony have been habitual and very successful front runners in their ten-win time together, three around Kempton, but this time the two heroines of 2021 (and a good while before) simply cancelled each other’s mounts out, compromising any chance of a finishing effort.
Perhaps it all goes down to the centuries-old presumption that Kempton is a sharp track: not when top-class horses share a fast pace over three miles on anything other than fast ground. We saw the same a race earlier when the nominal stayer Not So Sleepy pulled away his chance in the Christmas Hurdle leaving the more economical Epatante to gain an emphatic success.
Trainer Henry De Bromhead’s position atop the staying chase standings rests now on A Plus Tard’s seeing off three Gordon Elliott and four Willie Mullins opponents in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown tomorrow. The Gold Cup winner is looking rather tarnished at this point and it needs a big statement from A Plus Tard
So, team tactics anyone? It is probably tempting enough, one would think, especially for Elliott who is no longer a trainer for Cheveley Park Stud, owners of A Plus Tard. Mullins, whose Allaho ties in with the form of his two Kempton King George representatives, will need to be more circumspect although his stable’s owners have to get used to coming out on the wrong side in the very frequent event he has multiple contenders.
I expected it to be Asterion Forlonge yesterday, the horse that probably would have won the John Durkan Memorial for Mullins at Punchestown last time but unseated Brian Cooper when about to take the lead three fences from home.
That left Allaho to struggle home and Mullins clearly didn’t want to give him another tough race so soon after he looked pretty spent up the run-in.
Further back that day in fifth after some ordinary jumping was Tornado Flyer, and he had also been behind Allaho when that horse won at the Cheltenham Festival, but Mullins runs more than one if he thinks there is the slightest chance that he could pick up money further down the line in these valuable races.
I’m not convinced that Asterion Forlonge would have finished behind Tornado Flyer, who led him by three lengths going into the final fence with Clan Des Obeaux already beaten off. He appeared to jump the final fence the more spectacularly but this time crumpled on landing and Cooper again bit the dust.
It was left to Paul Nicholls to collect positions two to four with Clan Des Obeaux, a full nine lengths back, the outsider Saint Calvados almost four lengths behind in third and a spent Frodon toiling home another six lengths adrift in fourth.
Whereas Mullins was winning only the second King George of his illustrious career, Nicholls can point to 12 and with three, or rather two and a half realistic chances, he would have gone home less than chuffed even though they collected 95 grand between them as against £143k for the winner.
I must say I feel sorry for trainer Harry Whittington who could hardly have been accused of doing badly with Saint Calvados, winning five of his 14 chases and only narrowly failing to beat Min in a race at the Cheltenham Festival a couple of seasons back.
When it’s your stable star that gets whisked away to a man with a yard full of top-class animals, to the extent that your former horse will be a 25/1 outsider on debut, you can understand if his feelings are a little bitter. It’s a hard enough game and as we know the rich get richer and the rest get what’s left! Saint Calvados did actually look a possible winner inside the last mile but either insufficient stamina or simply limited ability at the top level took over.
The biggest disappointment of the King George for the home team was Chantry House, the 3-1 favourite on the day, who ran a shocker. He tied in with all the best form having beaten Asterion Forlonge back into third in the Marsh Chase at Cheltenham last season. A winner after that at Aintree and with the benefit of a comeback stroll round in a two-horse Sandown freebie should have put him right to run a big race but he was never travelling like a possible winner.
His performance was in stark contrast to the rest of the Henderson team who provided a treble for the trainer on a track which he loves so much he was sent into a state of apoplexy when the course’s management advocated the closure of its wonderful jumping track in favour of residential development.
I am with him on that, Kempton having provided many of my happiest racing experiences. It’s where I met Ray Tooth but also where I had a horse which won a mile and a half three-year-old maiden from 13 quite expensive horses by 20 lengths at 20-1 in heavy ground. Not many stayed that day either!
Epatante was the high point in Nicky’s treble, providing the filling in a sandwich between odds-on first-race winner Broomfield Burg, who must hold Festival novice hurdle aspirations for J P McManus, and Middleham Park’s last-race eye-opener Marie’s Rock who looked a mare with a future when adding a first hurdles success to three in bumpers two winters ago.
Last week I was suggesting that Christmas this year was falling ideally for me to circumnavigate the various requirements of work and family. Well here I am at almost 2.30 a m. on Monday morning absolutely knackered and spent of anything worth talking or writing about. So if you don’t mind, I’m turning in. It’s that or watching the cricket. Happy New Year!
TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/TornadyFlyer_KingGeorge.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2021-12-27 08:57:222022-01-01 17:21:26Monday Musings: A King George Head Scratcher
It's the end of another year: 2021 wasn't quite as tumultuous as 2020, but it was nearly! As we close out the year with further uncertainty hanging in the air, thank the deities for that supreme inconsequence, horse racing.
Here at geegeez.co.uk we continue to support our industry-leading data service, Geegeez Gold, with thought-provoking editorial from a very talented group of writers, all of whom are racing fans. Because the next few days are bereft of a race or six to bet on, I've reprised the pick of the posts from these twelve months for your edification.
This seems a great opportunity to thank those who have contributed in 2021: Chris Worrall, Sam Darby, Nige Dove, Dave Mosley, Andrey Yatsyk, Dave Renham, Tony Stafford, Andy Newton, and Jon Shenton. I'm personally hugely grateful and not a little bit proud of what we've continued to achieve this year, punching above our weight against some very large media players.
Anyway, back to the good stuff, and I hope you'll find plenty of interest in the below!
Finally, here's wishing you and all those you care about a happy, and healthy, Christmas and New Year.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/2021.png320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2021-12-23 11:34:542021-12-23 11:47:29The Pick of the Posts 2021
Christmas Day couldn’t fall better for this column than it does in 2021, writes Tony Stafford.
Okay, so we miss the Saturday’s racing as we’re tucking into the turkey and the boss-provided M & S hamper’s goodies, but Boxing Day on Sunday will have a special resonance.
As someone who still needs to maintain a daily interest in the bread-and-butter action, it will be nice not only to have a blank Saturday, but also a further two-day reprieve on Thursday and Friday. And later today we will get the acceptances for what is likely to be a vintage King George VI Chase.
The 2022 Cheltenham Gold Cup favourite will not be there but his remaining at home for a target on Dec 28 means stable-companion Minella Indo, the reigning title-holder, will have Rachael Blackmore’s assistance at Kempton. The pair will renew rivalry with Bryony Frost and Frodon who beat them in the Ladbrokes Gold Cup at Down Royal, Galvin interloping in second, at the end of November.
The Down Royal race was Minella Indo’s first since his Cheltenham triumph on the day Rachael stayed loyal to A Plus Tard and finished a close second, leaving Jack Kennedy to come in as super sub on Henry De Bromhead’s equal stable star.
These two fantastic female riders could hardly have had a more eventful 12 months since Bryony and Frodon upset stable companion and preferred-in-the-betting Clan Des Obeaux in last year’s King George. Twelve months on, again Clan Des Obeaux, the mount of Harry Cobden, heads the market in front of Minella Indo.
Bryony, as we touched on last week, won her case, and overwhelming public and industry approval, against the now 18-months banned (three suspended) Robbie Dunne. Frodon, an 18-time career winner, has had Frost as his regular partner for most of the past four years and Down Royal was their tenth triumph together.
It seems odd that Frodon is again the second choice for her stable on a track where he, having fallen on his first acquaintance, has won on his next three visits. Minella Indo, though, will be tougher to repel than on that domestic reappearance after his long break.
If Bryony has been getting the sentiments, Rachael has been collecting the plaudits. Within a few days at home in Ireland last week she cleaned up the Irish Racing Hero Award, the RTE Sportsperson of the Year and the Irish Times/Sport Ireland Sportswoman of the Year accolade.
Then last night, perhaps the biggest distinction of all – we in the UK like to think so! – on the evening when Emma Raducanu predictably won BBC Sports Personality of the Year, Ms Blackmore annexed World Sports Star of the Year.
So it was four awards for Rachael.
Admittedly Emma was the first British woman to win the US Open since Virginia Wade in 1968 and only the fourth ever to do so. Even so, Rachael’s catalogue of unique achievements was probably more unlikely. The first to win the Champion Hurdle on Honeysuckle in March, she also uniquely became first female to be champion rider at the Festival. Then in April her win on Minella Times was the first by a woman in the 182-year history of the Grand National.
The 2021 dominance at the top level among staying chasers enjoyed by Henry De Bromhead and illustrated by A Plus Tard’s bloodless victory in the Betfair Chase at Haydock has taken some of the gloss off the Willie Mullins chasers.
Mullins, after a 30-year training career where he had become the supreme big-race performer of these islands, had still not won the Cheltenham Gold Cup to 2018. Then Al Boum Photo, in 2019 and 2020, picked up two in a row. That gelding’s valiant attempt at the hat-trick resulted in a creditable third behind Minella Indo and A Plus Tard last March.
Al Boum Photo will probably take on A Plus Tard at home next week but Mullins does have a likely lad in the emerging talent of Asterion Forlonge lined up for Kempton
As a novice last season he was third behind Nicky Henderson’s Chantry House in the Marsh Novice Chase at Cheltenham but he has been transformed since then. He would clearly have won the John Durkan Memorial at Punchestown last time but as he came smoothly to challenge two fences out, he unseated Brian Cooper leaving Allaho to win gallantly.
Chantry House went on from Cheltenham last spring to win very easily at Aintree and resumed action last month with another bloodless win at Sandown. This pair, should they both run, will make up a five-horse nucleus with probably at least as many decent bit-players to ensure this is the race of the winter so far.
Nicky Henderson will be buoyed by the win in Ascot’s Long Walk Hurdle on Saturday by Champ, more normally regarded as his prime Gold Cup hope of recent years. It was especially so as his original favourite for the race, Buzz, had to be taken out through an injury sustained at home just before the stayers’ contest.
Champ’s stamina and talent have never been in doubt and it certainly looks that reverting to hurdles shows the J P McManus horse in his best light.
Injuries are such a part of jump racing and it was perhaps slightly ironic that so soon after Buzz’s former stable-companion Not So Sleepy shared the Fighting Fifth Hurdle that Buzz should succumb apparently with the world of long distance hurdling at his feet.
Injury on the home gallops also caused the demise of one of Not So Sleepy’s oldest rivals, Silver Streak. Evan Williams’ grey, a hugely popular multiple Graded hurdle winner, had been fourth behind the Morrison hurdler and fellow dead-heater Epatante at Newcastle and earlier sixth just behind fifth-placed Not So Sleepy in Honeysuckle’s Champion Hurdle.
Williams and jockey Adam Wedge dusted themselves down and replied in the best manner possible, winning the near £40k Howden Silver Cup, the race that followed the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday.
Xxxxx
Apocryphal evidence – and plenty of eye-witness stuff too – has accompanied the various evasions of triple champion flat-race jockey Oisin Murphy as he attempted to disguise his ongoing problems with alcohol over the years.
Last week, faced with the prospect of having to attend scheduled disciplinary hearings into two findings of excess alcohol in his system and also one into alleged breaches of the Covid-19 rules last year, he handed in his jockey’s licence.
In their reporting of the news, the BHA stated that it is their responsibility to be sensitive when riders get in difficulty. The news that there were two such alcohol-related inquiries pending – one previously unreported from May at Chester – suggest the leniency in the case of Oisin might have been inappropriate.
Murphy held on to win a third jockeys’ title by the skin of his teeth and by only two victories 153-151 over William Buick in a tussle that lasted until the final day of the season on Champions Day at Ascot in late October.
That first positive test’s being unreported and presumably not dealt with at the time made the second, which was followed by an altercation in a Newmarket pub, less likely to be adjudicated upon appropriately.
Several times, even in one interview since the end of the season that brought a third championship, he has made statements suggesting he has stopped drinking. Maybe he has, but even if he is being sincere in those sentiments, I believe his third title will always be tarnished. Everyone likes Oisin, but it’s time for the self-delusion to stop.
There are many instances of sportsmen’s careers being ruined by addictions of all kinds, with drink, drugs and excessive (and of course where jockeys are concerned, illegal) gambling most regularly. The true champions, people with the staying power of a Piggott and Eddery (11 titles each) and in the generation before Lester, Sir Gordon Richards with 26, had to stifle such temptations. Likewise, the remarkable Sir Anthony McCoy, winner of 20 jumps championships in a row, with no heed to injury or any other possible inconvenience, needed the utmost control.
Oisin Muphy is already a very good rider and still one young enough to change. If he ever wishes to aspire to their eminence, he first needs to start being honest with himself. He certainly has a fair bit of their talent – now he needs to show he has just a tiny portion of their resolve.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/MinellaTimes_RachaelBlackmore_GrandNational2021.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2021-12-20 08:30:202021-12-20 08:30:20Monday Musings: Christmas Heroes and Heroines
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