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Run style analysis of a selection of National Hunt trainers

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Regular readers will know of my interest in the impact of run style and, in this article, six National Hunt trainers come under the spotlight as I look for running style patterns which might lead to profitable angles, writes Dave Renham. The trainers in question are Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson, Jonjo O’Neill, Donald McCain, Venetia Williams and Alan King. I have looked at data between January 1st 2015 and December 31st 2021, seven years in total.

Before I start in earnest, however, a quick recap of running styles for all new readers and how Geegeez can help with understanding them.

The first furlong or so of any race sees each horse take up its early position and soon the horses settle into their racing rhythm. Normally these positions do not change too much for the first part of the race. The position each horse takes early can be matched to a running style - www.geegeez.co.uk has a pace section on its racecards that highlights which running style each horse has taken up early in a race. There are four run style groups, as follows:

Led – horses that take the early lead (the front runner). In National Hunt racing you generally get just one front runner, but occasionally there may be two or more horses disputing the early lead;

Prominent – horses that track close behind the leader(s);

Mid Division - horses that take up a more midfield position;

Held Up – horses that are held up near to or at the back of the field.

These running styles are assigned a numerical figure ranging from 4 to 1; Led gets 4, Prominent 3, Mid Division 2 and Held Up 1. Having numbers assigned to runners helps greatly with analysis as you may have seen in previous articles.

 

Run Style Analysis: All races

To begin with, let's take a look at all National Hunt races combined, breaking down the running styles of all horses for each of our six trainers. Connections, most notably the trainers, can clearly have a significant influence on the running style of their horses: most will give instructions to their jockeys before the race telling them how they would prefer the horses to be ridden.

Below, the table shows which percentage of each trainer's runners displayed one of the four running styles. I have included the figure for ALL trainers (1527 trainers combined!) as the 'control':

 

As can be seen there is quite a contrast; both Alan King and Jonjo O’Neill are clearly largely averse to sending their runners into an early lead. In contrast Donald Mc Cain, Venetia Williams and, to a lesser extent, Paul Nicholls seem happy to send a decent proportion of their runners to the front early.

In terms of their success with early leaders / front runners – all of them exceed 20% when it comes to strike rate (see graph below). For the record, 20% is the average winning figure for front runners in all National Hunt races.

 

Henderson and Nicholls have a simply stunning record with front runners – a strike rate for both of pushing 40%. Now I have mentioned before that if as punters we had access to a crystal ball pre-race to see which horse would be taking the early lead, it would be a license to print money. Here are the hypothetical profit/loss figures for the front runners of the six trainers to once again prove that point:

 

Combining all trainers in the list would have yielded an SP profit of £394.91 to £1 level stakes. Now, as we know, predicting which horse is going to take the early lead is far from an exact science. However, with some detailed analysis of the trainers in the race, as well as the horses concerned there will be opportunities to maximise our chances of nailing down the likely front runner.

 

Run Style Analysis: Chases

I have noted in previous pieces that front runners in chases make the biggest profits in terms of National Hunt racing, so let us see how our six trainers perform in these races. Here are their win strike rates with front runners in chases. In the table I have included their All races front running SR% to facilitate comparison:

 

Similar figures for each trainer although Alan King’s figure drop about 5%.

And here are the hypothetical profits from identifying and backing these front runners in chases over the course of the seven years in the sample:

 

All six trainers would have been in profit to SP – a combined profit of £350.38 to £1 level stakes indicates why chases are so ‘front runner’ friendly.

I have also looked at the percentage of their runners which displayed a front running style in chases – as with the All Race data I shared earlier, two trainers (King and O’Neill) are far less likely to send their charges to the front early:

 

It still staggers me every time I see trainers that send a low percentage of their runners to the front early. Just one in twelve of Jonjo O’Neill’s runners goes into an early lead in a chase. However, when they do, they win nearly 25% of the time (one race in four). Compare this to his record with hold up horses in chases. Nearly 45% of all Jonjo O’Neill’s runners in chases are held up early – but just 11% go onto win. It’s nuts! [For all that there might be other reasons for holding certain horses up on some occasions - Ed.]

Hold up horses do not perform well in chases either – to illustrate this here are the chase records of the six trainers with their hold up runners:

 

The summary on hold up horses is low strike rates and huge losses all round. This group will, of course, include a subset of no-hopers though, in relation to such high profile trainers, there will be fewer of these than for most other handlers.

 

Run Style Analysis: Hurdle races

Generally speaking, hurdle races do not offer as strong a front running edge as chases, but it is still preferable to lead early compared with other running styles.

With that in mind, let us review the hypothetical profits from our trainers' front runners in hurdle races:

 

Some good strike rates for Nicholls, Henderson and King, but not the wall to wall profits seen in the chases analysis.

It is noticeable that, as a whole, the six trainers send out a smaller proportion of front runners in hurdle races as compared to chases. This will be in part due to typically smaller field sizes in chases then in hurdles, but that doesn't fully account for the differentials. The graph below illustrates:

 

Alan King has sent just less than 4% of his hurdlers into an early lead despite these runners scoring 35% of the time. As a comparison, his held up runners (which account for 37% of all King's hurdlers) won just 13% of the time.

 

Run Style Analysis: Full Summary

To conclude, I'd like to share the individual trainer win strike rate data across all four running styles in different race types. I have included National Hunt flat races, too. These races do not give front runners as strong an edge although they still perform better than any of the other three running styles.

The table below gives a very clear picture as to why run style is so important. It shows the significant edge front runners have overall; it also shows that prominent runners perform far better than horses that race mid division or are held up.

 - Dave Renham

 

Monday Musings: Hill has the Constitution for Cheltenham

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In these quality-starved weeks after the Christmas and New Year holiday periods, we seek largely in vain for a few strands of straw from which to build a brick or two of worthwhile form, writes Tony Stafford. The obsession with identifying UK horses capable of winning at Cheltenham 2022 is beginning to look a bit like Nicky Henderson – stricken at the weekend at home in Lambourn with Covid – alone against the world.

Actually the bricks-from-straw metaphor more accurately refers to my flimsy resources in putting together enough thoughts to make a 1200-1600-word weekly article at this time of year. Always the first glimmer of optimism is provided by the <clichés will say "rapidly-"> but for the sake of accuracy it’s "steadily-"increasing daylight.

I popped out on Sunday at 4.15 p.m. to the local shop and it was still light but already dark when I got home. Nine weeks to Cheltenham means 90 minutes more at either end of the day. Soon after, the clocks go forward and so do we. But that’s not saying much about racing.

The Henderson horse charged with defending his trainer’s and nation’s honour has instantly switched from the superb Shishkin, who some believe could find the brick wall of Willie Mullins’ former UK-raced pointer Energumene ending his Queen Mother Champion Chase hopes.

No, a new star emerged over the weekend in the shape of Constitution Hill, named after the road that flanks the big garden wall alongside Buckingham Palace on one side and Green Park in London’s West End on the other.

Constitution Hill, ridden by Nico De Boinville in the colours of Michael Buckley, put in an extraordinary performance in the mud at Sandown Park on Saturday, running right away from a quintet of nice novices, going two to their one as the old commentators used to put it.

Rarely do you witness horses coming up an incline in muddy conditions seemingly giving no mind to the arduous nature of the task. He could have been running up to the winning post on good ground at Royal Ascot so little did he look like a jumper somewhere near the end of his tether, as most animals have been this past couple of weeks.

Constitution Hill was the sixth Henderson winner of the Tolworth Hurdle, now sponsored by Unibet but a race of several guises and a few venues with seasonal abandonments, meaning Ascot, Warwick and Kempton have all played temporary host to this much-coveted novice prize.

A glance back at its history since inauguration in 1976 reveals the inevitable Desert Orchid in 1984, so he’s on that roll of honour as well as the Clarence House (initially Victor Chandler Chase) as was chronicled last week.

Henderson’s first of six, New York Rainbow in 1992, was also owned by Buckley, but I recall his owning smart horses even earlier than that. For almost three years between 1969 and late 1971 I was on the Press Association racing desk and just before I left, John De Moraville, son of the former trainer of the same name who handled the wonderful stayer and later breed-defining jumps stallion Vulgan, joined the team. John later became Bendex at the Daily Express, following the colourful Charles Benson in the role. He was still later a Jockey Club/BHA jumps handicapper.

John was half-brother to Peter Bailey, a successful jumping trainer at the time who had a youthful Michael Buckley among his owners. In those days his colours were white and black, halved I think, almost in the Oppenheimer manner and with sleeves reversed – one white, one black.

His best chaser at the time was Strombolus and while I could not find that horse’s career on wikipedia, I did find him participating in a race on the internet. I keyed in his name and was directed to the film of the 1979 King George VI Chase at Kempton Park, which was won by Tommy Carmody on Silver Buck.

As Peter O’Sullevan informed the gathered crowd, which included yours truly, victory would be the jockey’s second in a row as he had also ridden Gay Spartan to success 12 months earlier.

Tommy, who joined from Ireland as stable jockey to Tony Dickinson, would win it again on Silver Buck a year later for the hat-trick by which time Michael had taken over the licence from his father. It was during that time that Dickinson junior told me: “I’ve had that little sod William Haggas ringing me up from Harrow School again telling me how to train his mother’s horse!” Christine Feather owned Silver Buck.

The Harewood team was to make it five-in-a-row in the race when, after the 1981 renewal was lost to the weather, Wayward Lad collected the next two. Both horses featured in the Famous Five Gold Cup of 1983 but Carmody left after completing his hat-trick. He was supplanted principally by Robert Earnshaw – still working for the BHA as a stipe the last I saw – Graham <sorry mate, you can’t have a trainer’s licence> Bradley, Kevin Whyte, Dermot Browne (ahem!) but plenty more.

I used to talk to Michael most days then and when I heard Carmody, already a prominent rider in Ireland, was joining the team I decided to back him for the jump jockeys’ title and suggested to Robert Glendinning, the Daily Telegraph Racing Editor, he should back him too.

Bob duly agreed to take a tenner of my bet. A few months later, Bob was about to retire and on the Friday evening before Grand National Day as he was finishing that night he handed over the ten quid with a grunt – “worst bet I ever had!” in his best West Yorkshire tones.

It was one of my many impecunious days, so, aware there was one race still to run at Aintree, I dived down to Corals in Fleet Street and had a fiver each way on a Peter Easterby horse ridden by Alan Brown and it won at 15/2.

Also at that time I had a regular weekend slot on BBC Radio London with Wembley ice hockey announcer Norman De Mesquita – on his weeks off, substitute Simon (brother of outrageous actor Oliver) Reed, who still commentates on ice skating. I’d go off on my Friday lunch break to Marylebone High Street where Derek Thompson’s first wife (of three) Jenny was a producer.

My interview went out in a sports programme at tea-time majoring on the big meeting of the following day with a repeat on the Saturday morning show which ended at 11.30. When we did the interview I was very strong on the Gordon Richards-trained Tamalin, but by the time I got back with my winnings, he had been declared a non-runner.

A quick look through put me on to Rubstic, so I parlayed the winnings into 25 each way on him at 33’s,  then called Norman to offer to come in the following day and do the slot live. The complication was that I lived in Hertfordshire and needed to bring the family to my mother-in-law in Highbury. We left in plenty of time, but had to stop three or four times as the kids were all feeling car-sick. Listening to the show as I neared the studio, I heard Norman saying I was about to arrive. It was a tense few minutes but I made it to the studio at 11.22; duly tipped the winner and on Monday popped in to Corals again to collect. Six months later I was Racing Editor!

That 1979 King George had another link to the Tolworth Hurdle as the horse that won the first running, Grand Canyon, was in the line-up. A New Zealand-bred horse, he was trained in Sussex by Derek Kent and ridden by long-time Jockey Club/BHA starter Peter Haynes. Grand Canyon shared a good pace with Tied Cottage, later that season the disqualified winner of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, ruled out after his feed was found to be contaminated. Grand Canyon fell and Tied Cottage faded into fourth in the King George in question.

And a further link to this weekend was that Tied Cottage’s trainer was Dan Moore, who a decade earlier had been the highly assured handler of L’Escargot, my favourite jumper of all time and the most underrated, too, in my opinion. Dan and his wife Joan, parents of long-standing trainer Arthur, are commemorated every year in the big novice race on yesterday’s Fairyhouse card.

Silver Buck, later the 1982 Gold Cup hero, had to be ridden right out at Kempton to hold off Jack Of Trumps, one of the earliest high-class horses owned by a very youthful J P McManus. Third was another smart performer in Border Incident, trained by Richard (Lord) Head.

Strombolus was up there in the first four for a long way but gradually weakened; he subsequently won plenty of good long-distance handicaps. Buckley has done really well for almost half a century, but one of his lesser-known associations was with the 2008 Triumph Hurdle winner, Zaynar.

During the Victor Chandler Chase times, Nicky often tried to get the bookmaker into owning horses but ownership didn’t really interest him - unless he could have a major successful punt. Zaynar, who was an Aga Khan horse with a good jumping pedigree but a non-winner in three flat races in France, was offered to several people including Ray Tooth, who had Punjabi running in that year’s Champion Hurdle – he finished third. Eventually a mutual friend encouraged Chandler to buy the horse with him, initially 50/50.

Each half was later sub-divided in portions of varying size with an ownership name of Men In Our Position, an appropriate one to encompass any situation. Zaynar was unbeaten in his novice year winning the Triumph and his next two the following season before losing at 1/14 at Kelso after which he never reached the heights anticipated.

The entertaining Victor Chandler biography by the multi award-winning author Jamie Reid – Put Your Life On It – recalls that Triumph Hurdle. But the friend I mentioned remembers it for a different reason. He says with some irritation that while Michael Buckley had the smallest share, he left Prestbury Park that night with the magnificent trophy in his possession.

Buckley has had many great horses, and when for several years he reduced his involvement with jumpers and therefore Henderson, he built a significant flat-race team with Jamie Osborne. They had tremendous success together and it was by only a matter of inches that he was denied what would have been his biggest win of all.

In 2014 the three-year-old Toast Of New York, a £60k yearling buy, finished a neck runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita on the back of success in that year’s UAE Derby, and arguably should have been awarded the race in the stewards' room. He cashed in, selling the horse to Qatari interests.

Michael Buckley can look back with satisfaction at his life of involvement with top-class horses and big-race success. Who’s to say that the best of all is not still to come with Constitution Hill, starting at Cheltenham in two months?

  • TS

Gold Nuggets #1

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In this first in a new series of videos and blog posts, I'll be looking at various elements of Geegeez Gold in search of a value approach, and maybe a value winner or two along the way as well.

Today's episode focuses on the importance of heavy ground form; and run style at a couple of courses and distances on the all weather.

Pro tip: if I speak a little slowly for you, use the cog icon bottom right to change the playback speed.

My 2021 Betting P&L

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It is with the usual trepidation that I share what follows, fully cognisant that not all receive such things in the spirit with which they are intended. However, regular readers will know how important I believe it is to 'walk the talk', which is why I have begun to share my betting P&L on an annual basis. You can review last year's here, for example, should you so wish.

In the video below you'll find a full rundown of the withdrawals from and deposits to my bank account in 2021. Before you look at that, though, a few important points:

  1. Plenty bet more than me, plenty bet less than me. So what?! This is not about absolute figures, it's about the art of the possible, and how fun and profit (whatever that figure looks like for you - after all, getting paid pennies for having fun is a great outcome) are not mutually exclusive.
  2. I'm not sharing this to show off (obviously) but, rather, to show off Geegeez Gold, which of course I use almost exclusively (along with odds comparison data).
  3. This is not turnover, which was much higher. Funds in accounts generally get played many times before withdrawals are made.
  4. I have LOTS of accounts, plenty of them now useless, and I use all of the ones where I can still bet more than £5! Taking 3/1 when 7/2 is available is just stupid if your bottom line is a key consideration: please don't do it.
  5. I had plenty of small losing accounts in 2021, and one big losing account (Betfair, which I often use to hedge pool bets) as well as a couple of good winning ones; that's a function of how I bet.
  6. Guessing on racing betting turnover is tricky but probably in the region of £80,000. So that's a moderate 3% or so ROI, which is a little shy of what I'd aspire to (around 5%).
  7. These figures are never life-changing, but to get paid a bit for having, like, weeks of fun is outlook-changing. I bought more bits of racehorses in lieu of being able to go away much. 🙂
  8. I have around £1,500 in account balances, and also some healthy looking ante post tickets - but similar was true last year, so those can find their place in the 2022 digest.
  9. It has become clear to me from the small debits on my bank statement that I drink too much posh café coffee... [There are worse vices, right?]

So here goes: a recording of me downloading 2021's bank transactions and removing the non-betting ones to leave just the betting entries.

Matt

p.s. How did YOU do? Not really interested in 'actual money' figures, but rather did you make a profit? Did you make a smaller loss (which is the single most important step any punter can take)? Or was 2021 tougher for you punting-wise? What worked for you, or not? Leave a comment below and share your experience.

The Shape of 2022 on Geegeez

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It's a new year. Happy New Year!

Reasons to be cheerful in the wider world are that, while that pesky Omicron variant of the dreaded Covid virus is spreading like warm butter on hot toast, its implications are - so far - less brow-furrowing. That hopefully means we can crack on with life's more engaging head scratchers, such as solving racing sudokus.

And, to that end, allow me to share the plan for 2022, or at least the early part of it, here on geegeez.co.uk.

Editorial

Did you miss me? 2021 was a big year for development and side projects, which meant I personally had far less time to spend researching and writing on these 'ere pages. Maybe that was a miss for you, perhaps/probably it wasn't. Either way, I'm committed to scribbling more this year. I'll be asking all sorts of questions related to the betting aspects of racing (in the main), and using whatever data I can get my hands on to answer them. And that will happen on a more structured schedule, too.

Plus we're going to introduce a midweek preview of a weekend or major Festival race: the betting markets are up for the major Saturday races from early in the week and there are some opportunities to get a flyer even though we'll not be in possession of all the facts - you know, like draw, going, who's actually running, that sort of thing! - at that nascent stage. Sam or I will usually be in charge of this segment, starting next week.

And we'll also be producing more content looking at the day's bread and butter racing through the prism of Geegeez Gold. The aim of these pieces - which will vary between blog and video posts - will be to demonstrate how Gold can be used to identify interesting races, interesting horses in those races, and interesting ways to potentially play those horses. That's on top of Chris's excellent and existing Racing Pointers daily series.

Finally, there's a metric tonne of great stuff in our daily emails. From course guides (just click the course name in the email), to highlighting races of the day, to latest news headlines, to our Feature of the Day, to - my personal favourite - an article from the archives (there is some genuine treasure in this section - check out this, this, this or this, already re-published this year if you don't believe me), there is something for every racing fan - and plenty for most.

If you're not yet receiving our daily emails, you are missing out. You can sign up on the in-page form here (it's big and yellow, you can't miss it) to start getting early morning intel.

Here's how our early 2022 editorial schedule will look:

Daily

Chris's Racing Insights, looking at a race each day from a value and Gold perspective. These can be found here.

Our Racing Bulletin, an on-site version of the daily email, which can be found here.

Latest news articles, syndicated from our friends at the Press Association. They can be found from the home page.

Monday

Tony Stafford's Monday Musings: thoughts of a life-long racing journalist, owner, punter, racing manager and editor.

Tuesday

Something to chew on: a data-driven article aimed at sharpening your betting focus in one area or another of the racing game. These will be written by either me, Dave Renham, or occasionally Jon Shenton or a guest contributor. And they will be good. Very good.

Wednesday

An eye to the future: an early look at either one of the weekend's big races or a major Festival contest with a view to nailing a fancy price about an intended runner with a squeak.

Thursday

Panning with Gold: yes, I know that doesn't really make sense, but you get the drift. Thursdays will be for poring over the form via Geegeez Gold in search of little playable nuggets. Using different components from week to week, the aim is to land on a couple of good winners but, much more than that, to show you how to do the same.

This will generally be produced by me, but this is a spot where I'd hugely welcome contributions from our Gold user community: that might mean writing a piece about how you use Gold, rather than a preview of races. Such offerings are always hugely popular, so don't be shy.

Please do drop me a line if you fancy having a crack! [Don't worry overly about your writing style, I can tidy that up: we're much more interested in how you approach the puzzle using the Gold toolkit].

Friday

Weekend Pointers: Sam's aggregation of relevant blog posts, Andy's big race trends, and anything else we have to hand that might aid you in your quest for a wonderful weekend winner.

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There is so much to engage and entertain in the above, I hope. And, of course, feel free to dip in and out of the bits of interest to you. There are only so many hours in the day, and it might just be possible to spend all of the waking ones on this site!

 

Gold Development

Alongside the written and spoken words, our number-crunching machines will be levelling up, too, bringing you more features and insights within Geegeez Gold. There are plenty of smaller changes, and a couple of bigger ones, already on the cook. Those I'm able/happy to reveal right now are as follows:

Coming Very Soon

Small changes including Proximity Form on racecard horse form, inline form on Profiler tab, 'My Races' feature on the cards menu page (to create 'your own' race meeting at the top of the page from those races that interest you), and a few other bits and pieces.

Coming Soonish

A new weapon in the toolkit, we'll be adding a bet calculator to the Tools section of the site. Win or each way, singles, accumulators and all of the most common multiple bets will soon be calculable right here.

Springtime

Perhaps most excitingly, for me at least, we're about to commence development on a bigger piece to significantly upgrade Query Tool. This has been the one that got away for too long, and I'm stoked to think what extra power we'll be adding in this space. We will definitely be adding the ability to specify elements of a horse's previous race(s), as well as some new variables such as 'Days Since Last Run'.

Importantly, we need to ensure that any rewrite of Query Tool has zero impact on your existing QT Angles, and that, in fact, may be the most challenging component. We'll obviously test the heck out of things to ringfence your saved data, which is sacrosanct to us as well as you. [And, in the Armageddon scenario, we keep backups of everything!]

Depending on how progress goes, we'll be looking at a release around April time, I suspect: it'd be great to be able to offer those extra QT insights in time for the flat season kick off.

Beyond that

"There is always more to do", as I'm fond of relating to our brilliant database (++) man, Dave; and the development won't stop post-QT upgrade. I have a number of thoughts in mind, including broader odds comparison data, exchange price data, stride and cadence / sectional upgrade data, race trends pages and more. We have the data access and technical capability to bring any or all of these to life; it is simply a question of how desirable they are to you, our valued Gold subscriber. If you have a preference, or an alternative suggestion, please feel free to include it in the comments below.

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So that's what happening hereabouts in the now and near future. We've continued to invest in making geegeez.co.uk the site you want it to be since the beginning, almost 14 years ago (crikey). And, as long as you still ask for more, we'll try to bring it.

Thank you, as always, for your support. We - I  - value it immensely and never take it for granted.

Wishing you a Happy, Fun, Profitable - and most of all, HEALTHY - 2022.

Matt

 

Monday Musings: A Quick Look Back Before We Advance

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With Boxing Day falling on a Sunday this festive season, the adjustments to the official handicap ratings for the entire Christmas to New Year period will be eagerly awaited by trainers and owners tomorrow (Tuesday) morning, writes Tony Stafford. I’d love to see the two-mile chase handicapper take full and realistic account of Shishkin after his flawless reappearance run at Kempton.

Equally, I’d expect him to allow him to take up the engagement in the Clarence House Stakes at Ascot, the sole early-closing UK jumps race in the coming three weekends, on January 22.

Nicky Henderson, having been vindicated by his decision to abort plans for the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown last month as Shishkin was not ready in favour of Kempton’s Grade 2 Desert Orchid Chase on the second day of the Christmas meeting, now faces another conundrum.

“Do we avoid Ascot and a pre-Cheltenham encounter with Energumene?” will be Henderson’s question as he ponders whether to take on Willie Mullins’ unbeaten chaser who had been equally silky on his return in another Grade 2 race, the Hilly Way, at Cork earlier last month.

Shishkin’s disdainful mastery of Tingle Creek winner Greaneteen and Bryony Frost last week was so emphatic that Mullins’ comment that Energumene will take his place in the Ascot field so early in the piece might have been a tactic to try to inject a shade of uncertainty in the Henderson psyche.

The Ascot race, initially a handicap sponsored by Victor Chandler, had its reputation immediately cemented in 1989 when Desert Orchid won the first running under 12st, getting up late under Simon Sherwood to deny Panto Prince who received 22lb. The valiant grey got up having lost the lead when making a rare mistake at the final fence.

That contest is sure to figure high up among the many memories for Desert Orchid’s trainer David Elsworth, who recently announced his retirement after an outstanding career as a dual-purpose handler spanning half a century.

In its handicap years two other top two-milers to grace its honours board were Waterloo Boy and Well Chief, but when it became a Grade 1 conditions event, the quality rose to the top. Fields were small from the outset but most of the true greats of two-mile chasing were directed there and usually won the race.

Paul Nicholls, as with most steeplechases of the modern era has been a leading light, firstly with two wins by Master Minded , whose second triumph in 2011 was by the then minimum short-head in the face of a flying finish from Somersby, trained by Best Mate’s handler Henrietta Knight and ridden by Bryony’s elder brother, Hadden Frost.

In 2008, Hadden, in his time as a flat-race apprentice with Richard Hannon, and still with a 5lb allowance, won a claiming race at Lingfield for Raymond Tooth with a filly called La Colombina. Hadden had his best season with 32 the previous season and another 18 including La Colombina in 2008.

With increasing weight taking over – he already had a first jumps success before Ray’s winner - he quickly showed that father Jimmy’s talent had been safely passed on. That second place on Somersby came in the second of six consecutive seasons when he made double figures before retirement.

Bryony had her first rides in 2012-13 and for the last five campaigns she has clocked up between 36 and 50 wins every year, standing on 36 so needing 15 more by the end of April to achieve a career best.

She will have been hoping for one of the major wins associated with the Nicholls stable over the holiday period. While that didn’t work out, she clearly has the trainer’s full confidence to the extent that she shares almost equal standing in the Ditcheat team with stable jockey Harry Cobden.

Let us return to the Ascot race. After Master Minded, the next big name was the peerless Sprinter Sacre, a 1/5 chance when the race had to be transferred to Cheltenham in 2013. The oddity was that Sprinter Sacre and his equally lauded stablemate Altior each won it only once. Altior’s victory came three years ago as a 10-1 on shot in a three-horse race.

Gary Moore’s Sire De Grugy was the intervening horse between Sprinter Sacre and the race’s most prolific hero Un De Sceaux, three times a winner for Willie Mullins and even as an 11-year-old in 2020 good enough to share favouritism with Defi Du Seuil and finish runner-up as the Philip Hobbs star won his second consecutive Clarence House.

Last year it was Defi Du Seuil’s time, as sure as the years turn, to pass on the baton, this time to Kim Bailey’s First Flow while he, Defi, laboured home in fifth.

Un De Sceaux won 23 of his 34 career starts and considering his class and admirable durability, has a very proletarian pedigree. His sire is the little-known French-bred and -raced high-class hurdler Denham Red. That horse’s sire Pampabird never raced but his paternal grandsire Pampapaul certainly did. A top Irish juvenile, winner of among others the National Stakes for Sir Noel Murless’ younger brother Stuart, he was a classic winner at three.

Pampapaul sprang a major surprise when defeating subsequent Epsom Derby hero The Minstrel, and earlier Newmarket 2,000 victor Nebbiolo (from The Minstrel), in the Irish 2,000 Guineas.

More pertinently for the present day, and no doubt a factor in Willie Mullins’ admiration of him before he joined the team, is that he is also the sire of Energumene.  So we’re in for a treat. Here we have two horses with unblemished chase records at a similar stage of their development, each with one overall defeat on his card, facing up. Pistols at dawn: who will blink first? Is it too good to be true?

Encouragingly, neither trainer, unusually for Mullins at any rate, has an alternative at the initial entry stage. It cost £150 and to run it’s another £600, fair enough for the £160k prize which brings £85,000 to the winner.

But there is a supplementary on the Monday, so two weeks from today, and that will set back any takers £5,000. With a chance of either of the big two’s standing aside, it was sensible to sit back and wait as that sort of equation might be worth chancing.

I began by musing whether Shishkin’s rating will have been altered after Kempton. He went into the race 2lb higher than Greaneteen – 169 to 167 – and was receiving 3lb. I would expect a rise but knowing official handicappers’ propensity to fudge, would not be shocked if he gave him 171, the same as Energumene.

Already after only a nascent chase career, that figure puts the young Irish horse within 1lb of Un De Sceaux. I believe Shishkin has the potential to eclipse his brilliant predecessors Sprinter Sacre and Altior. I just cannot get out of my mind the way he gathers and then finds extra pace and strength to dominate his opponents in the closing stages.

Nicky had a great holiday, also winning the Christmas Hurdle emphatically on King George Day with 2020 Champion, Epatante. The re-match with unbeaten Honeysuckle is another to savour.

Honeysuckle did not appear over the holiday period so remains blissfully unbeaten and a sure-fire favourite to defend her title in ten weeks’ time – yes that’s all it is! But some of her prime Henry De Bromhead stablemates did appear and after the eclipse of Minella Indo at Kempton, A Plus Tard’s position as Gold Cup favourite is far less secure after his last-stride defeat by Gordon Elliott’s Galvin in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown.

While Elliott (15 wins from 94 runners) and Mullins (23 from 81) have been cleaning up over the past two weeks, De Bromhead has had the paltry return of just four wins from 74 runners. Envoi Allen did scrape home less than impressively dropped in grade and distance at Leopardstown but hardly enhanced his reputation either.

In mitigation, only three of the 74 started favourite, but it doesn’t take long for the betting public and more pertinently the people who frame the odds on which their bets are based to sense a problem. Watch, if not this space, certainly the day-to-day progress of a man who has performed, along with stable jockey Rachael Blackmore, the training equivalent of a miracle to join the big time so quickly and effectively.

As perhaps Henry is beginning to discover It is one thing to get up there, quite another to continue to repel the legions of expensively-acquired and brilliantly-prepared horses that the two incumbent top table teams can throw into the action year on year.

In the UK the news of Charlie Johnston’s now sharing the licence to train at Kingsley House, Middleham, alongside rather than assisting father Mark, certainly surprised me, but equally obviously, as most of the coverage suggested, nothing will change save the letter headings.

Certainly I do not anticipate any reduction in the flow of winners with what is nowadays the routine target for the team of 200 a season. It’s an amazing record and while Mark alone will never make the 5000 winners we thought was inevitable, it is equally unlikely that anyone will beat his score for many years to come.

Kingsley House is a remarkable operation and not least for one fact I’ve never forgotten of what Alan Spence, a long-standing owner, told me one day. He said: “I was telling <trainer A> that Mark is my cheapest trainer in terms of cost. He/she <so no clue there either!> said what are you talking about? He charges £xxx a day, much more than me!”

“I replied, yes, and when I get his invoice every month, even if a horse of mine had to have an expensive operation, it’s all on one line – everything included. When I get yours it runs to four pages with all the extras!”

Good luck to the new team, well actually the old team, not forgetting the wonderful Deirdre. So it’s Happy New Year especially to them, but also everyone else who takes the time to read these words.

- TS

Monday Musings: A King George Head Scratcher

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The Irish duly won the 2021 Ladbrokes King George VI Chase, but not with either of the pair which shared in the five-strong short list suggested a week ago, writes Tony Stafford. The winner was 28-1 shot Tornado Flyer, ridden by Willie Mullins’ nephew Danny, successful for the third time over fences but after a losing sequence of nine.

Unusually, all five of the pretty obvious principals turned up, in one form or another and we certainly didn’t see the real Minella Indo, already well beaten when pulled up by a frustrated Rachael Blackmore a long way from home. He and Frodon, ridden by Bryony Frost, evidently wanted to put on a show of strength, not necessarily from the saddle, but certainly under them as their mounts shared a fast pace through the first part of the race.

Frodon and Bryony have been habitual and very successful front runners in their ten-win time together, three around Kempton, but this time the two heroines of 2021 (and a good while before) simply cancelled each other’s mounts out, compromising any chance of a finishing effort.

Perhaps it all goes down to the centuries-old presumption that Kempton is a sharp track: not when top-class horses share a fast pace over three miles on anything other than fast ground. We saw the same a race earlier when the nominal stayer Not So Sleepy pulled away his chance in the Christmas Hurdle leaving the more economical Epatante to gain an emphatic success.

Trainer Henry De Bromhead’s position atop the staying chase standings rests now on A Plus Tard’s seeing off three Gordon Elliott and four Willie Mullins opponents in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown tomorrow. The Gold Cup winner is looking rather tarnished at this point and it needs a big statement from A Plus Tard

So, team tactics anyone? It is probably tempting enough, one would think, especially for Elliott who is no longer a trainer for Cheveley Park Stud, owners of A Plus Tard. Mullins, whose Allaho ties in with the form of his two Kempton King George representatives, will need to be more circumspect although his stable’s owners have to get used to coming out on the wrong side in the very frequent event he has multiple contenders.

I expected it to be Asterion Forlonge yesterday, the horse that probably would have won the John Durkan Memorial for Mullins at Punchestown last time but unseated Brian Cooper when about to take the lead three fences from home.

That left Allaho to struggle home and Mullins clearly didn’t want to give him another tough race so soon after he looked pretty spent up the run-in.

Further back that day in fifth after some ordinary jumping was Tornado Flyer, and he had also been behind Allaho when that horse won at the Cheltenham Festival, but Mullins runs more than one if he thinks there is the slightest chance that he could pick up money further down the line in these valuable races.

I’m not convinced that Asterion Forlonge would have finished behind Tornado Flyer, who led him by three lengths going into the final fence with Clan Des Obeaux already beaten off. He appeared to jump the final fence the more spectacularly but this time crumpled on landing and Cooper again bit the dust.

It was left to Paul Nicholls to collect positions two to four with Clan Des Obeaux, a full nine lengths back, the outsider Saint Calvados almost four lengths behind in third and a spent Frodon toiling home another six lengths adrift in fourth.

Whereas Mullins was winning only the second King George of his illustrious career, Nicholls can point to 12 and with three, or rather two and a half realistic chances, he would have gone home less than chuffed even though they collected 95 grand between them as against £143k for the winner.

I must say I feel sorry for trainer Harry Whittington who could hardly have been accused of doing badly with Saint Calvados, winning five of his 14 chases and only narrowly failing to beat Min in a race at the Cheltenham Festival a couple of seasons back.

When it’s your stable star that gets whisked away to a man with a yard full of top-class animals, to the extent that your former horse will be a 25/1 outsider on debut, you can understand if his feelings are a little bitter. It’s a hard enough game and as we know the rich get richer and the rest get what’s left! Saint Calvados did actually look a possible winner inside the last mile but either insufficient stamina or simply limited ability at the top level took over.

The biggest disappointment of the King George for the home team was Chantry House, the 3-1 favourite on the day, who ran a shocker. He tied in with all the best form having beaten Asterion Forlonge back into third in the Marsh Chase at Cheltenham last season. A winner after that at Aintree and with the benefit of a comeback stroll round in a two-horse Sandown freebie should have put him right to run a big race but he was never travelling like a possible winner.

His performance was in stark contrast to the rest of the Henderson team who provided a treble for the trainer on a track which he loves so much he was sent into a state of apoplexy when the course’s management advocated the closure of its wonderful jumping track in favour of residential development.

I am with him on that, Kempton having provided many of my happiest racing experiences. It’s where I met Ray Tooth but also where I had a horse which won a mile and a half three-year-old maiden from 13 quite expensive horses by 20 lengths at 20-1 in heavy ground. Not many stayed that day either!

Epatante was the high point in Nicky’s treble, providing the filling in a sandwich between odds-on first-race winner Broomfield Burg, who must hold Festival novice hurdle aspirations for J P McManus, and Middleham Park’s last-race eye-opener Marie’s Rock who looked a mare with a future when adding a first hurdles success to three in bumpers two winters ago.

Last week I was suggesting that Christmas this year was falling ideally for me to circumnavigate the various requirements of work and family. Well here I am at almost 2.30 a m. on Monday morning absolutely knackered and spent of anything worth talking or writing about. So if you don’t mind, I’m turning in. It’s that or watching the cricket. Happy New Year!

  • TS

The Pick of the Posts 2021

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It's the end of another year: 2021 wasn't quite as tumultuous as 2020, but it was nearly! As we close out the year with further uncertainty hanging in the air, thank the deities for that supreme inconsequence, horse racing.

Here at geegeez.co.uk we continue to support our industry-leading data service, Geegeez Gold, with thought-provoking editorial from a very talented group of writers, all of whom are racing fans. Because the next few days are bereft of a race or six to bet on, I've reprised the pick of the posts from these twelve months for your edification.

This seems a great opportunity to thank those who have contributed in 2021: Chris Worrall, Sam Darby, Nige Dove, Dave Mosley, Andrey Yatsyk, Dave Renham, Tony Stafford, Andy Newton, and Jon Shenton. I'm personally hugely grateful and not a little bit proud of what we've continued to achieve this year, punching above our weight against some very large media players.

Anyway, back to the good stuff, and I hope you'll find plenty of interest in the below!

Finally, here's wishing you and all those you care about a happy, and healthy, Christmas and New Year.

Matt

 

Miscellaneous

The Ultimate Guide to Betting on Horses and Geegeez Gold

Geegeez Claims Nap Hand of Best Betting Website Awards

Male vs Female Jockeys: A Comparison

Form Profiling 2021: Community Project

Profiting in Novice and Handicap Chases

"Today I Am 50"

 

Sectional Timing

Sectional Timing, and How To Use It

Royal Ascot Clock Watching: Horses of Interest

 

Trainer Profiles

Anthony Honeyball Stable Tour

Fergal O'Brien Trainer Profile

Nicky Richards Trainer Profile

Keith Dalgleish Trainer Profile

When Trainers Run Two in the Same Race

Using Market Rank to Assess Trainer Performance

 

Pace and Run Style

Past Pace as a Predictor of Future Performance Part 1

Past Pace as a Predictor of Future Performance Part 2

Run Style Bias in Non-Handicap Hurdles

Run Style Bias in Handicap Hurdles

Run Style Bias in Non-Handicap Chases

Run Style Bias in Handicap Chases

 

Racecourse Angles

Chelmsford Racecourse Run Style Bias

Newcastle Racecourse AW Run Style Bias

Lingfield Racecourse AW Run Style Bias

 

Breeding Angles

Punting Angles using Sires & Damsires: Part 1

Punting Angles using Sires & Damsires: Part 2

Punting Angles using Sires & Damsires: Part 3

Punting Angles using Sires & Damsires: Part 4

 

Monday Musings: Christmas Heroes and Heroines

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Christmas Day couldn’t fall better for this column than it does in 2021, writes Tony Stafford.

Okay, so we miss the Saturday’s racing as we’re tucking into the turkey and the boss-provided M & S hamper’s goodies, but Boxing Day on Sunday will have a special resonance.

As someone who still needs to maintain a daily interest in the bread-and-butter action, it will be nice not only to have a blank Saturday, but also a further two-day reprieve on Thursday and Friday. And later today we will get the acceptances for what is likely to be a vintage King George VI Chase.

The 2022 Cheltenham Gold Cup favourite will not be there but his remaining at home for a target on Dec 28 means stable-companion Minella Indo, the reigning title-holder, will have Rachael Blackmore’s assistance at Kempton. The pair will renew rivalry with Bryony Frost and Frodon who beat them in the Ladbrokes Gold Cup at Down Royal, Galvin interloping in second, at the end of November.

The Down Royal race was Minella Indo’s first since his Cheltenham triumph on the day Rachael stayed loyal to A Plus Tard and finished a close second, leaving Jack Kennedy to come in as super sub on Henry De Bromhead’s equal stable star.

These two fantastic female riders could hardly have had a more eventful 12 months since Bryony and Frodon upset stable companion and preferred-in-the-betting Clan Des Obeaux in last year’s King George. Twelve months on, again Clan Des Obeaux, the mount of Harry Cobden, heads the market in front of Minella Indo.

Bryony, as we touched on last week, won her case, and overwhelming public and industry approval, against the now 18-months banned (three suspended) Robbie Dunne. Frodon, an 18-time career winner, has had Frost as his regular partner for most of the past four years and Down Royal was their tenth triumph together.

It seems odd that Frodon is again the second choice for her stable on a track where he, having fallen on his first acquaintance, has won on his next three visits. Minella Indo, though, will be tougher to repel than on that domestic reappearance after his long break.

If Bryony has been getting the sentiments, Rachael has been collecting the plaudits. Within a few days at home in Ireland last week she cleaned up the Irish Racing Hero Award, the RTE Sportsperson of the Year and the Irish Times/Sport Ireland Sportswoman of the Year accolade.

Then last night, perhaps the biggest distinction of all – we in the UK like to think so! – on the evening when Emma Raducanu predictably won BBC Sports Personality of the Year, Ms Blackmore annexed World Sports Star of the Year.
So it was four awards for Rachael.

Admittedly Emma was the first British woman to win the US Open since Virginia Wade in 1968 and only the fourth ever to do so. Even so, Rachael’s catalogue of unique achievements was probably more unlikely. The first to win the Champion Hurdle on Honeysuckle in March, she also uniquely became first female to be champion rider at the Festival. Then in April her win on Minella Times was the first by a woman in the 182-year history of the Grand National.

The 2021 dominance at the top level among staying chasers enjoyed by Henry De Bromhead and illustrated by A Plus Tard’s bloodless victory in the Betfair Chase at Haydock has taken some of the gloss off the Willie Mullins chasers.

Mullins, after a 30-year training career where he had become the supreme big-race performer of these islands, had still not won the Cheltenham Gold Cup to 2018. Then Al Boum Photo, in 2019 and 2020, picked up two in a row. That gelding’s valiant attempt at the hat-trick resulted in a creditable third behind Minella Indo and A Plus Tard last March.

Al Boum Photo will probably take on A Plus Tard at home next week but Mullins does have a likely lad in the emerging talent of Asterion Forlonge lined up for Kempton

As a novice last season he was third behind Nicky Henderson’s Chantry House in the Marsh Novice Chase at Cheltenham but he has been transformed since then. He would clearly have won the John Durkan Memorial at Punchestown last time but as he came smoothly to challenge two fences out, he unseated Brian Cooper leaving Allaho to win gallantly.

Chantry House went on from Cheltenham last spring to win very easily at Aintree and resumed action last month with another bloodless win at Sandown. This pair, should they both run, will make up a five-horse nucleus with probably at least as many decent bit-players to ensure this is the race of the winter so far.

Nicky Henderson will be buoyed by the win in Ascot’s Long Walk Hurdle on Saturday by Champ, more normally regarded as his prime Gold Cup hope of recent years. It was especially so as his original favourite for the race, Buzz, had to be taken out through an injury sustained at home just before the stayers’ contest.

Champ’s stamina and talent have never been in doubt and it certainly looks that reverting to hurdles shows the J P McManus horse in his best light.
Injuries are such a part of jump racing and it was perhaps slightly ironic that so soon after Buzz’s former stable-companion Not So Sleepy shared the Fighting Fifth Hurdle that Buzz should succumb apparently with the world of long distance hurdling at his feet.

Injury on the home gallops also caused the demise of one of Not So Sleepy’s oldest rivals, Silver Streak. Evan Williams’ grey, a hugely popular multiple Graded hurdle winner, had been fourth behind the Morrison hurdler and fellow dead-heater Epatante at Newcastle and earlier sixth just behind fifth-placed Not So Sleepy in Honeysuckle’s Champion Hurdle.

Williams and jockey Adam Wedge dusted themselves down and replied in the best manner possible, winning the near £40k Howden Silver Cup, the race that followed the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday.

Xxxxx

Apocryphal evidence – and plenty of eye-witness stuff too – has accompanied the various evasions of triple champion flat-race jockey Oisin Murphy as he attempted to disguise his ongoing problems with alcohol over the years.

Last week, faced with the prospect of having to attend scheduled disciplinary hearings into two findings of excess alcohol in his system and also one into alleged breaches of the Covid-19 rules last year, he handed in his jockey’s licence.

In their reporting of the news, the BHA stated that it is their responsibility to be sensitive when riders get in difficulty. The news that there were two such alcohol-related inquiries pending – one previously unreported from May at Chester – suggest the leniency in the case of Oisin might have been inappropriate.

Murphy held on to win a third jockeys’ title by the skin of his teeth and by only two victories 153-151 over William Buick in a tussle that lasted until the final day of the season on Champions Day at Ascot in late October.

That first positive test’s being unreported and presumably not dealt with at the time made the second, which was followed by an altercation in a Newmarket pub, less likely to be adjudicated upon appropriately.

Several times, even in one interview since the end of the season that brought a third championship, he has made statements suggesting he has stopped drinking. Maybe he has, but even if he is being sincere in those sentiments, I believe his third title will always be tarnished. Everyone likes Oisin, but it’s time for the self-delusion to stop.

There are many instances of sportsmen’s careers being ruined by addictions of all kinds, with drink, drugs and excessive (and of course where jockeys are concerned, illegal) gambling most regularly. The true champions, people with the staying power of a Piggott and Eddery (11 titles each) and in the generation before Lester, Sir Gordon Richards with 26, had to stifle such temptations. Likewise, the remarkable Sir Anthony McCoy, winner of 20 jumps championships in a row, with no heed to injury or any other possible inconvenience, needed the utmost control.

Oisin Muphy is already a very good rider and still one young enough to change. If he ever wishes to aspire to their eminence, he first needs to start being honest with himself. He certainly has a fair bit of their talent – now he needs to show he has just a tiny portion of their resolve.

- TS

Lingfield Racecourse All Weather Run Style Bias

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This is the third article in a series where I am looking at run style bias at individual all weather tracks. Today, Lingfield Park run style bias is coming under scrutiny.

To view other all-weather track run style biases, choose from the below:

Chelmsford Racecourse Run Style Bias
Kempton Park Racecourse (AW) Run Style Bias
Lingfield Racecourse (AW) Run Style Bias
Newcastle Racecourse (AW) Run Style Bias
Wolverhampton Racecourse Run Style Bias

 

What I mean by run style is the position a horse takes up within the first furlong or so of the race. There are two powerful resources to investigate run style in the Tools tab of Geegeez. The first is the Pace Analyser which looks solely at run style / pace, and secondly the Query Tool which can also be used to extend this type of research. I tend to use the Query Tool simply because I can examine a few more angles in relation to running style.

Running style is often linked with the word pace because the early pace shown by horses in a race determines their early position.

The stats I am using with you here are based on this site’s pace / run style data. This data is split into four sections; each section is assigned a numerical value:

Led (4) – horses that lead early, horses that dispute the early lead. I refer to the early leader as the front runner;

Prominent (3) – horses that lie up close to the pace just behind the leader(s);

Mid Division (2) – horses that race mid pack or just behind the mid-point;

Held up (1) – horses that are held up at, or near the back of the field.

For this piece I will be looking at individual distances – mainly the shorter ones with the focus being 8+ runner handicaps.

The data has been taken from 1st January 2016 up until 30th September 2021.

Lingfield 5 furlong Run Style Bias

Handicaps

A look at the shortest trip first. Let us look at the run style (pace) figures:

 

These figures virtually mirror those for Chelmsford 5f run style with a clear advantage to front runners. It should also be noted that front runners have reached the frame nearly 58% of the time. Prominent runners are next best; meanwhile horses that were held up or raced mid pack early have been at a big disadvantage.

The front running bias has been consistent at this track for many years and if we look back further into the past, from 2012 to 2015, I can tell you the front running record was virtually identical – strike rate during that period was 23.42%; A/E value was 1.60 and the IV stood at 2.11.

As far as the draw is concerned front runners prefer a middle to lower draw as the graph below shows. Having said that wide drawn front runners still perform well above the expected norm.

 

 

Let me now share the data of 5f handicap favourites at Lingfield with you across all running styles:

 

These stats are not as potent as the Chelmsford 5f equivalent, but even so, as a favourite backer it is clear you would prefer your horse to lead early.

 

Non-Handicaps

As regular readers will know I prefer to stick to handicap stats for things like run style or draw bias, but it is sometimes worth sharing non-handicap data, too. Over 5f at Lingfield in 8+ runner non-handicaps, the run style bias is extremely potent as the graphs below show. Firstly a look at strike rate across the four categories:

 

 

The front running bias is stronger in non-handicaps – probably down to the fact that some non-handicap races lack the depth of competition that handicaps typically possess.

A quick look next at the A/E comparisons for run style in non-handicap 5f events:

 

 

There is clear correlation between strike rate and A/E values. All in all, then, front runners have a strong edge in 5f races at Lingfield, be it handicaps or non-handicaps. Prominent racers do pretty well, too, and it is clear that horses that race midfield or at the back early are putting themselves at a significant disadvantage.

 

Lingfield 6 furlong Run Style Bias

Onto 6f handicaps with 8+ runners. The run style (pace) figures are as follows:

 

The overall stats suggest a front running bias, with hold up horses continuing to struggle. However, if we look at year by year records for front runners, a significant change seems to have occurred in recent years:

 

2016 and 2017 saw a huge front running edge, but from 2018 onwards front runners have started to actually look to be at a disadvantage. The more recent stats (last two seasons) are favouring prominent racers with horses that race mid-division outperforming front runners. Strike rate data shown in the graph below shows this latest pattern neatly:

 

 

What is equally as quirky is that in the last two seasons in 6f non-handicap races (8+ runners), the front running bias has been enormous:

 

 

During this time frame in non-handicaps, 9 of the 21 races were won by the early leader / front runner, while horses that raced mid division or were held up combined to produce just one winner from 136 runners!

There are times when you cannot explain certain anomalies and this recent conflicting 6f data is one such occasion. Perhaps is simply a weird function of a small dataset: I can only recommend a watching brief this winter.

 

Lingfield 7 furlong Run Style Bias

Up to 7f now and the run style splits for this distance at Lingfield (8+ runner handicaps):

 

Again the overall six year stats give front runners a solid edge, with the performance of prominent runners much stronger than those running mid division or near/at the back early. However, as with the 6f stats, the front running performance was much better in 2016 and 2017. The ‘drop off’ has not been anywhere as bad over 7f as it was over 6f, but looking at the 2018 – 2021 data possibly gives a more accurate run style / pace picture.

 

I can say with some confidence that over 7f there is definite advantage to run in the front half of the field in the early part of the race. Front runners and prominent runners clearly outperform mid division/held up runners.

Moving on, I want to look again solely at favourites and their run style over the past six years or so. We can see that front running favourites outperform every other type of favourite in terms of run style:

 

A very impressive set of figures for front running favourites; once again favourites that race off the pace early tend to underperform. For the record, from 2018 onwards the front running win percentage was just under 40% and is still clearly better than the rest.

Now, it's time to study more market data – let's look at front runners in terms of their market rank. We have already seen that favourites have done well but what about the rest? At Chelmsford we noticed a strong market bias pattern, which is replicated over 7f here at Lingfield:

 

Second favourites (or joint-/co- second favourites) who lead early manage to win roughly 1 in every 3 races which is impressive. As we can see once we get to 6th or bigger in the betting, front runners simply do not generally have the class or ability to win. This shows once again that racing is not just about one aspect, we have to combine factors to give us a clearer picture. Run style is often one of the key factors, but we cannot rely solely on this regardless of how the strong the bias may seem.

Looking at the draw, front runners have struggled a little from middle draws. Not sure why this may be the case, especially as wide drawn front runners have actually done the best of any draw section. Perhaps it is due to the distance to the first bend in the race, about two furlongs, which may enable those wider drawn that want to lead to get across their middle-drawn counterparts; but it's unclear, to be honest.

The graph below shows the strike rates for the draw (max field size of 14):

 

 

Overall the 7f trip does offer an edge from a run style perspective – I would definitely prefer to be backing a horse that is going to race up with or close to the pace early.

 

Lingfield 1 mile Run Style Bias

This is where the run style stats start to even up at Lingfield. Below are the splits for 1 mile at Lingfield (8+ runner handicaps):

 

Hold up horses continue to struggle although their record is better at this distance compared with the three shorter trips. Front runners still score more often than they statistically should but it is becoming more marginal; prominent racers and horses that race mid division have virtually identical records.

 

Lingfield 1m2f+ Run Style Bias

Lingfield has a few distances of 1m2f or further and I have lumped the data together as it is very similar across each race trip. As you would expect, front runners are now not favoured and have become only the third most successful run style:

 

Preference therefore at longer distances is for prominent racers / mid pack runners. Having said that, I would not be personally using run style as a key ingredient to try and sort out races beyond a mile.

Lingfield All Weather Run Style Bias Conclusions

Over 5 furlongs at Lingfield on the all weather, front runners have a very strong edge and prominent racers perform well too.

I would keep a watching brief over 6f for the time being as the data appears somewhat contradictory in recent seasons.

At 7 furlongs I definitely want my horse to be nearer the front than the back early, while the mile trip is not one I personally play very often, but in general my advice would still be to avoid hold up horses unless you have some compelling form data to the contrary.

Good luck!

- DR

Monday Musings: Overseas Despatches

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Time was when a post-season challenge for the international races at Sha Tin racecourse was a fairly commonplace objective for high-class horses still in good heart, writes Tony Stafford. Four contests, each worth in excess of £1 million to the winner, were attraction enough. In the world of post- and apparently still-present Covid, things have changed.

Seven European-trained horses set off for Hong Kong at the end of their European seasons. None of the one French, two British and four Irish took back a victory from yesterday’s challenges, but such is the generosity of the prize pool, four will return with six-figure hauls.

Transportation difficulties have been a major adjunct to Covid times in all spheres with regulations for horse travel being especially onerous. That Willie Muir and joint-trainer Chris Grassick would have the foresight to send the partnership-owned Pyledriver for the Hong Kong Vase took courage and determination to see the project through.

Pyledriver didn’t manage to win, but in finishing a length second under Muir’s son-in-law Martin Dwyer to odds-on Japanese-trained favourite Glory Vase – it truly was a glory Vase for the winner! -  the Lambourn-trained runner matched anything he had ever previously achieved.

The second-favourite at 7-2, he lived up to that status, seeing off French-trained Ebaiyra to the tune of two-and-a-half lengths with Aidan O’Brien’s Mogul only sixth. In collecting £415,486 he easily eclipsed all the prizes he’d earned in his twelve previous starts, with five wins from his three seasons’ racing.

The equal youngest, at age four, with the other two Europeans, Pyledriver, who is still a colt – the winner is also an entire – must have more big pay-days ahead of him. Many plaudits, as well as Hong Kong dollars and other international currencies, can come the way of his entrepreneurial connections.

Only Mother Earth ran for European teams in the Mile and the hard-working 1000 Guineas heroine, coming on after Del Mar and the Breeders’ Cup, picked up fourth. That was worth £139k, supplementing Mogul's £37k for sixth in Pyledriver’s race. Ebaiyra picked up £188k for third there.

The Irish duo in the Hong Kong Cup, over 10 furlongs and the most valuable of the four races at £1.6 million to the winner, were unplaced, Bolshoi Ballet only ninth for O’Brien and Jim Bolger’s Irish 2000 Guineas winner Mac Swiney last of 12.

William Haggas, the only other UK trainer represented, did better, his Dubai Honour picking up £161k for his close fourth behind Japanese mare Loves Only You who was adding to her Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf win last month at Del Mar. Dubai Honour, under Tom Marquand, was running at least on a par to his second behind Sealiway in the Champion Stakes at Ascot last month.

I would imagine that Haggas and his horse’ s owner Mohamed Obaida will have pricked up their ears that Sealiway’s trainer Cedric Rossi, as well as Cedric’s father Charlie, who was Sealiway’s previous handler, and other members of the family have been arrested in Marseille in relation to enquiries into allegations of doping. Who knows, there could be some ramifications to come and maybe even a Group 1 disqualification in favour of Dubai Honour.

Back home in the UK, jumping continues apace but this past weekend must be possibly one of the least informative in relation to the Holy Grail of unearthing Cheltenham Festival winners. Indeed the two days of Cheltenham’s December fixture were more notable first for the astonishing level of demand for National Hunt stock at the Friday night sale at the track, and then for Bryony Frost’s absence from the meeting, than anything happening on the course itself.

True, My Drogo restored what in reality had been only a minor blemish on his record when smoothly erasing the memory of his earlier course fall to re-emphasise his candidature for the Festival, much to the relief of the Skeltons. Otherwise it was ordinary enough.

Bryony, cheered by the crowd at Warwick on Thursday upon the news of Robbie Dunne’s 18-month suspension with all four charges of bullying proven, was despatched by boss Paul Nicholls to Doncaster over the weekend where she had an anti-climactic two winner-free days.

I have been canvassing some trainer friends around the country and they have all noticed over the years instances of inappropriate behaviour by jockeys to female riders at different times. It may have been thought acceptable in the days when girls were far less commonplace in stable yards and on racecourses, but those days are long gone.

Now they are ever more prominent and respected thanks to the exploits of Hayley Turner, Josephine Gordon, Hollie Doyle and Nicola Currie on the Flat and in the UK Bryony and the Andrews sisters, Gina and Bridget, over jumps. In Ireland, Rachael Blackmore has picked up the baton relinquished by Nina Carberry and Katie Walsh and carried their achievements to unprecedented and unimagined heights.

In these days of improved nutrition and the resultant increasing in the size of successive generations more women, with their natural lighter weights have been needed to offset the scarcity of smaller male riders, especially for Flat racing. Some yards like Sir Mark Prescott’s would have to pack up – although his stable is a case of choice rather than necessity.

In those far-off days of Sir Gordon Richards and his generation, girl riders never got a look in and nor were they to be found too often in stables, despite their success at the top level in show jumping and eventing. Historic examples abound like Charlie Gordon-Watson’s sister, Mary, and Marion Mould, not to mention Princess Anne and daughter Zara Tindall.

In many other sporting spheres – football, cricket and rugby in the UK are the most obvious in terms of professionalism –women have become much more prominent and women’s golf has long been at the forefront of international sport at the highest level. Nowadays racing could not survive without its female participants.

***

Yesterday when I heard the words “Tornado” and “Kentucky” in the same breath I confess I was instantly confronted by an image of flattened barns, devastated meadows - possibly already under snow as is often the case in much of Kentucky through the heart of winter - with animals helplessly strewn far and wide.

Kentucky to me is first Lexington and its stud farms - an area I’d visited so many times between the early 1980’s and 15 years ago. Second is Louisville, birthplace of Mohammed Ali and home of the Kentucky Derby. I’ve been there a few times, too.

The tornado which on Saturday came in at 220 m.p.h. and flattened a candle factory in Mayfield, trapping it was thought more than 100 workers – 40 apparently managed to get out – was centred near the western border of the south-eastern state. Lexington is way across to the east and 75 miles due south of Cincinnati on the borders of Ohio.

That south-western part of Kentucky is apparently tornado country, a manifestation that occurs when cold dry air meets warm moist air. The cold air is denser so it settles on top of the warm air and forces it to the ground where the tornado is formed.

While the terrible loss of life and devastation to people and their property is tragic in the extreme my initial dread I confess did concern the horses. I feared the tornado could have reached considerably further east – Mayfield is 265 miles south-west of Lexington – but that it seems was unfounded. These occur regularly in the region near Mayfield, though never previously with this intensity or effect.

Declared the biggest tragedy in the history of Kentucky by Democrat Governor Andy Beshear, a 44- year-old lawyer who won the state’s top job by 0.2%, you could imagine the initial worries in the stud farms of the region as the mares prepare to foal down their valuable produce in the New Year.

Sales prices have been booming. We have been here before when studs have been enjoying good times only for the hammer blow to fall. It only takes a little adjustment to make things less rosy. Like a misplaced tornado for example!

A New Era Begins at Southwell Today

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Ask a racing trainer or jockey, or a professional bettor, which is the best all-weather track in Britain and they'll likely tell you Lingfield or Kempton or perhaps Newcastle or even Chelmsford. What they won't say is Southwell. But all that looks about to change with the debut this tea time of the Rolleston venue's new tapeta surface.

It has been widely held that, conformationally, Southwell is the best oval in British all-weather racing, but its fibresand surface was a thoroughly marmite affair for horsemen and women, and their horses. To succeed on the fibresand you needed a relentless galloper who could either get out in front or stomach the fierce kickback.

But the fibresand is no more, and the best all-weather course layout is now married to a 'latest generation' version of tapeta that has been wooing all-comers in racing trials in recent weeks. And, from four o'clock this afternoon, we'll all be able to see for ourselves how it rides.

Available now

Here at geegeez.co.uk we're mindful that the surface change is material. To that end, we've introduced a new 'surface' filter on both Full Form and Profiler. These filters allow users to see how a horse has performed on the various different synthetic cushions as well as turf.

You'll find the Full Form surface filter in the 'Course' block:

 

Selecting it will show only those form lines on a corresponding surface. In the case of Southwell now, that means only tapeta past performances:

 

 

Profiler also now differentiates between surfaces:

 

 

Still to come

I'm aware that as a consequence of the surface change, historical draw and run style biases - as well as sectional pars - may now be redundant. But they also might not. Moreover, it is likely that in the short term there will be a 'bedding in' period which may not reflect any longer-term draw and/or pace prejudices that come to pass. With that in mind, I'm loathe to simply start again from zero but, depending on how the first few weeks - and perhaps months - go, we may add the surface stipulation to our historical Southwell draw/pace tables and charts, and to our par calculations.

With regards to the Draw and Pace Analyser tools, there is no intention to change those. Users looking to explore Southwell performance there should, in due course, select the year 2022 to [another future year]. This will display all tapeta data bar meetings between now and year end, five fixtures in all.

The feeling from the trial day is that the surface may still favour led and prominent early run styles, so it will be interesting to see if that plays out.

Hopefully that all makes sense. Any questions, please ask in the comments below.

Matt

Monday Musings: Who’d be a handicapper?

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I suppose I could mention the Bryony Frost issue and her triumphant return to race riding with a big win in the Tingle Creek on Saturday at Sandown Park, writes Tony Stafford. Certain writers thought that victory was vindication of her situation vis a vis Robbie Dunne and his alleged bullying, swearing and whatever else from last week’s enquiry.

The situation, though, was rather like a jury of 12 men and women true having not agreed a trial verdict on a Friday night then going off to watch together private videos of everything the accused had done throughout his life over the weekend before reconvening on Monday morning. Not exactly the best example of natural justice maybe but, like Hollie and Rachael, Bryony is one of the racing public’s favourites and understandably and rightly so.

Equally, I could refer to Protektorat’s arrogant dismissal of former Gold Cup winner Native River in the Many Clouds Chase at Aintree the same day, and again a woman rider, Bridget Andrews, doing the steering and presenting at the fences of brother-in-law Dan Skelton’s much-improved chaser. He now faces the prospect of challenging the Irish heavyweights in the Gold Cup next March.

You have to love the way Dan never, except in the most unavoidable situations, like multiple runners at different tracks, goes outside the family. Brother and Bridget’s husband Harry might not win the title again this year – with Brian Hughes taking it so seriously he is operating twice as fast as last season’s champion. He is however playing the sensible card and helping ensure his own longevity in the saddle by keeping it in the family.

I also loved the effort of the grey mare and proud mum of a two-year-old – “I was courted by a Derby winner don’t you know!”, says Snow Leopardess as she goes on the gallops every day. “I would show you a picture but I don’t have one on me. He’s a handsome chap, by Sir Percy, and it’s his birthday soon”.

I believe the youngster is rising three but could be corrected on that. The bold-jumping grey mare conceived and foaled during the 26 months between her successful trip over to France from Charlie Longsdon’s stable in 2017 and first run back at Newbury in late 2019.

On Saturday at Aintree she treated the Grand National fences with respect but total efficiency. It would have been an awful shame if the front-running performance clear of the field for much of the three miles and two furlongs would have resulted in defeat by a nose rather than victory by that margin over Hill Sixteen.

Lots to talk about, then, but instead I’m going to harp on about the sitting duck syndrome, brought upon domestic owners and trainers by the people whose mandate is to make handicap races a level playing field.

These well-paid officials continually err in several regards. Number one, letting Irish trainers take the mickey. Take the case of a horse who had previously raced in seven maiden and novice races and a single handicap before his owner-trainer, Ronan McNally, a notorious “touch” merchant, lined him up, cherry picking a Huntingdon 0-110 yesterday against ten unsuspecting locals.

The horse, a six-year-old, to tabulate his entire Rules career, had been successively 17th of 20 beaten 53 lengths (25/1); 10th of 20 beaten 64 lengths (50/1); 8th of 15 beaten 74 lengths (150/1); 11th of 20 beaten 63 lengths (200/1); 11th of 13, beaten 19 lengths (200/1); 16th of 18, beaten 33 lengths (50/1); and 10th of 13, beaten 19 lengths (150/1).

Just to make the job look right he was sixth of 20 in his first handicap hurdle at Down Royal, starting at 8/1. You could say that the money was down and he didn’t have a great run but if it was half down then, they went the whole hog on Vee Dancer yesterday.

Choosing a conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle and therefore able to book leading claiming rider Kevin Brogan, such was the weight of money he started an improbable 2 to 1 on. It would not be accurate to say he was always going to win as he was on and off the bridle all the way, but he won comfortably by three lengths in the end.

My complaint is that horses like that coming from another racing authority should not be allowed to run in any handicap without achieving a minimum placing: getting at least in the first four let’s say. Watch out for another three or four wins in rapid fire fashion.

He had run off 90 in that Down Royal race and our hurdles handicapper probably thought he was safe letting in him on 10lb more, but these horses have stones not pounds in hand once the hand-brake is let off.

One of the cleverest UK trainers is undoubtedly Gary Moore and I think he has even outsmarted anything he’s done previously in handicaps with his training of ex-French six-year-old Naturally High. This gelding is not only the same age as Vee Dancer but was running in a Sandown handicap hurdle on Saturday off the identical mark of 100.

He duly bolted in, dismantling some progressive young hurdlers having shot the pre-race market to pieces too. He still started odds against but when you examine his life story and the part the UK handicappers played in it, I’m sure you will see my amazement is justified.

Runner-up at Sandown was another ex-Frenchman, the Roger Teal-trained Kamaxos who was conceding him 15lb. His French Flat race mark had been 32, which equates to 70, meaning a pretty routine 45lb difference.

I mentioned Naturally High had also been trained in France, and his last four runs there in 2018 had been two victories in April in a Chantilly conditions event and a Longchamp Listed. He went up in class for his next run but finished 15th of 16 as a 16/1 shot in the Prix Du Jockey Club (French Derby), starting at much shorter odds than three of the four Aidan O’Brien candidates.

After his last run, fifth of six in a Group 2, he was allotted a mark of 47, which he still holds and which translates to 103. That makes him 33lb superior to Kamaxos from whom he was receiving 15lb on Saturday. He arrived at 100 having strolled home in his first handicap at Lingfield running off 88.

How that 88 mark was arrived at beggars belief. Normally horses are required to complete the course three times to be allotted a mark, but first time Naturally High unseated Jamie Moore before running twice more a long way out of the money. He was allowed in on that sketchy evidence but then having won the first time off a gift rating, allowing him in again off 100 was naïve in the extreme. Basically he started 15lb lower over jumps than the French figure when it should be nearer 45 or 50lb the other way!

I’ve no gripe at all with Gary Moore who had a big job to bring back to life a horse that had been bought for €120,000 at the end of 2018. Those two big wins might have started to get certain people somewhere near level with that investment because there is no doubt the money has been well and truly down both times.

It’s hard to see what can stop the hat-trick, save some overdue retaliation by the two-mile hurdles handicapper. Does he have the bottle or will he treat Naturally High (France) and (UK) as two entirely different horses?

*

I’m feeling a little bereft with the breeding stock sales’ conclusion last week and over the weekend in France. High-class racehorses and well-bred mares have rarely been in such demand and for a while on Tuesday any female with the requisite number of limbs and the ability to conceive was almost guaranteed to go to at least six figures.

I do not intend identifying the young lady who relates to this little tale save to say her putative trips to the sales have been mentioned here recently. She had her eye on a Shadwell filly – there were 90 in the catalogue last week – in Wednesday’s sale and hoped to get it for a song as it hadn’t run.

I had suggested going on Thursday when all the big buyers had gone home and she could pick up something very cheaply but at the same time be prepared for its being modest enough. She persisted and when I checked that evening whether she had any luck, she said, “No, it went for 70 grand!”

Now I know people in her situation that might have claimed to have been the under-bidder, like the Irish trainer who made very public that distinction in regard to the sale of triple Champion Hurdle winner Istabraq.

I was changing planes one day in the US coming back from Keeneland sales when Timmy Hyde caught up with me and said: “You were the under-bidder for Istabraq weren’t you? I know you were, I was standing right behind you.

“Well that fe..ing D…. M…..is telling everyone he was!” Saudi Arabia’s loss was Ireland’s gain, although when I asked how much short my 36k bid had been, Timmy said: “J P told me to go to 100 grand!”

- TS

Becher Chase Pace Bias and Grand National Fence Experience Trends

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The Becher Chase is a race I look forward to each year. It’s a great spectacle over the Grand National fences, there is less stamina guesswork than we have to do ahead of the Grand National itself and there are some clear pace and trend pointers, which I'll showcase below.

Becher Chase Pace Bias

Not all races run at Aintree over 3m2f are run over the Grand National course but many are, especially the bigger field races.

Not the biggest of samples but we see some very strong trends in this pace data. The win data isn’t completely reliable given the sample size but still we see a strong win percentage for front runners (10%) and the success rate gradually declines the further back in the field a horse is ridden until you get to held up, which has a win strike rate of just 3.76%.

Now in a sample size like this we need to pay a lot more attention to the place data as three to four times as many runners are contributing to the data set. The place data follows a very similar trend to the win data though with front runners once again coming out on top with a very tidy place percentage of 40%. There is a bit of a drop off between prominent and mid division at 26.17% and 20.48% respectively and then there is a similar drop off down to held up which has a place percentage of just 14.29%.

Front runners seem to enjoy far more of an advantage here than any other run style. Not only do the win and place stats back this up but front runners are also profitable to back blind, generating a Win PL of 3.5 and an EW PL of 10.5. Prominent racers are also profitable to back each way (EW PL of 7.67) but all other run styles are unprofitable to follow, again supporting the case that you want to be as close to the pace as possible here.

When you spot a pace bias like this it can be tempting to think you should only back those that race front rank but that’s not the case. Almost half of the winners in this sample have raced in mid division or the rear, but those run styles have provided many more runners and therefore many more opportunities. So whilst it is an advantage to be on the pace here, it’s by no means impossible to make up ground from the back.

Previous Grand National Fence Experience In The Becher

A previous run over the Grand National fences, particularly a good one, seems to be extremely important in this race.

An amazing 10 of the last 11 winners of the Becher Chase had previous experience over the Grand National course. Add to that the fact that 26 of the last 33 runners to finish in the first 3 in this had also previously run over the National fences and we see a very strong bias towards those who are in some shape or form proven over these obstacles.

So here we see an even stronger trend than the pace bias and in most years the winning tricast will be made up of runners that have previous experience here.

Becher Chase 2021 Preview

A very interesting race again this year with last year’s 1-2-3 all reopposing and taking on 19 other contenders.

The first thing I want to examine is previous course form, and I’ll be using Instant Expert to assist me.

Note that two of the runners (the David Pipe pair at the bottom of the weights) don’t appear in Instant Expert as they have both exclusively raced abroad to date. The pair are well out of the handicap and are the complete outsiders so it shouldn’t make much difference to exclude them anyway.

The course info is what I’m really after above but it’s worth remembering that this is for Aintree in general, not necessarily the Grand National course. These are the runners that have previously run over these fences and their form figures recorded here.

Mac Tottie 1
Kimberlite Candy 22PU
Chris’s Dream UR
Vieux Lion Rouge 7167920951F
Hogan’s Height 106
Le Breuil 73
Tout Est Permis PU
Lord Du Mesnil 9PU
Via Dolorosa 4
Didero Vallis 58

Now obviously a runner without previous National fence experience CAN win this race, and it seems this year more than ever there are some excellent contenders without that experience, but with a couple of bookies paying as many as 7 places on each way bets I’d rather be taking an each way price about one of the above.

So what about the pace for this race? Here is the pace map.

We know that front runners, and to a lesser degree prominent racers, can be favoured here even over the longer distances and with a pretty steady early gallop likely this probably won’t be the stamina test it could be and those that are patiently ridden could be at a disadvantage.

Lord Du Mesnil looks to be the main pace angle with Cobolobo and Via Dolorosa likely to track that runner. El Paso Wood could race prominently too based on his form in France but it’s difficult to predict given he now races for new connections.

You almost certainly don’t want to be in the rear of this field so Chris’s Dream, Domaine De L’Isle, Mighty Thunder and Achille could be amongst those most inconvenienced.

Now looking at the runners, the trio that filled the places last year seems a good place to start. Vieux Lion Rouge bounced back to form in this last year with a 24 length win, taking advantage of a declining handicap mark. Much of his best form is on very testing ground so it’s difficult to read much into an 18.5 length defeat on good ground over just less than 3 miles on seasonal reappearance with this clearly the target. He’s only 5lbs higher this time around so is impossible to rule out.

Kimberlite Candy followed him home and was runner up in the race for a second year running. The ground was probably a bit fast for him in the Grand National, which was his next start and a poor effort but he does need to prove his wellbeing here. He’ll appreciate any rain on Saturday but there are more likely winners in the field.

Le Breuil was third last year and he continues to frustrate. He’s difficult to catch right and ran very poorly on reappearance, plus he’s 4lbs out of the handicap. These fences have a habit of sparking life back into out of form runners and they’ll certainly need to here.

It’s no surprise to see Mac Tottie near the head of the betting after winning over these fences last time out. That victory came in the Grand Sefton last month. A 7lb rise for that effort isn’t too much given he should improve for the step back up in trip but softening ground is a slight concern. He has won on soft before but he’s generally considered a horse that is better on a slightly sounder surface.

Chris’s Dream makes some appeal on form. He may not have completed on his only run over these fences but he was going well enough when unseating in the Grand National and he had gone further than this trip when his race ended. He’s unlikely to be ideally placed in this though which is a concern given the likely pace setup.

Hogan’s Height and Tout Est Permis both have pieces of form to recommend them on but neither have the overall profiles to really appeal. Via Dolorosa ran well here last time behind Mac Tottie and he looked a bit of a natural over these obstacles. His stamina is a question mark though and he’s 6lbs out of the handicap.

Meanwhile Didero Vallis was disappointing on seasonal debut but he stays this far, the ground will be no problem and has has completed twice here, albeit well enough beaten on both occasions. If you can get the best of the each way terms he might offer a bit of value at a decent price (around 25/1).

The safest play though at what is still a fair price (7/1) might be Mac Tottie who is still on the up and perhaps he improved for the removal of the hood last time out. The step up in trip will suit and as long as the ground doesn’t get too testing he should go very well. Vieux Lion Rouge isn't a bad price at 12/1 given his record here, especially over trips shy of 4m which he doesn't seem to stay.

Of those without National fence experience Snow Leopardess looks an obvious one with pretty much everything in her favour. She should really appreciate this test but you never know if they’ll take to the fences until you’ve seen them.

Finding Profit in Novice and Handicap Chases

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Hello again! It’s obviously been a while since I last made a contribution here, writes Jon Shenton. These days balancing time is a bit of a struggle due to a change in circumstances. With the pandemic meaning I’m still working from home it’s been difficult to focus on writing after another laptop heavy session in the day job. However, rest assured that I have been keeping the racing cogs whirring during the quiet spell!

For this article, I’m going to have a quick canter around the UK chasing scene. Now we’re into the full swing of the National Hunt season it’s an apt time to focus upon the subject. Let's start with novice chases...

Novice Chase Races

Before rushing headlong into the nitty gritty, from personal experience I initially found the learning curve regarding the complex array of race types and classifications in our sport a tad perplexing (still do, at times!). For those who may be at a similar position here is a link to the BHA’s handy glossary which should assist in understanding what a novice is in the context of the sport.

Glossary of race types - The British Horseracing Authority

In fairness, you may still be non-the-wiser after reading that! Don’t overly worry if it doesn’t sink in, what follows will still be useful, I hope!

Let’s begin with a broad-brush check of the best performing Novice Chase trainers by A/E (Actual vs Expected, see this short article for an explanation). Data only includes SP’s up to and inclusive of 20/1. As stated previously that’s a personal choice and something that works for me, especially when trying to sort the wheat from the chaff. The data runs through to 16th November 2021.

 

 

The above table lays out performance in the Novice Chase division lock, stock, and barrel. It shows the top dozen trainers, sorted by A/E where they have had one hundred or more runners in this discipline during the period in question.

Immediately, Harry Fry reveals himself as about whom to sit up and take notice (and I’ll briefly return to him later). However, the eye is drawn to the powerful Dan Skelton stable, primarily due to the volume of runners in comparison to rival yards.

The Skelton 2020 vintage included progressive luminaries such as Shan Blue and Allmankind amongst others, underlining that this already high-profile operation is still in the ascendant. The class of ’21 has the headline acts of Third Time Lucki and My Drogo to name but two, both being sure to feature in debate across the land over the coming months.

When mentioning this article to one of my good friends, they pointed out that surmising that Skelton is strong at chasing is like giving insight that Lewis Hamilton might win a few grand prix races. In fairness, he probably has a point; however, in my defence, backing this up with hard data and establishing sub-angles / micros within is still valuable to hone understanding around when best to commit to a wager.

With that in mind, it’s of interest to understand how stables perform based on their horses experience level over the larger obstacles. I dare say that most of you will be familiar with data driven intel such as first-time out stats, or performance of first-time handicappers for example. However, data referencing first time over fences is less mainstream so there is always a potential edge in evaluation. Here is the Skelton record by number of previous chase runs for Novice runners.

 

 

The table clearly demonstrates that Skelton novice chasers are worth catching very early in their career over fences: the numbers are very strong for those first time up, as well as those with a single chase run to their names.

Arguably, third time chasers demand respect, too. Although it appears that the market has adjusted and has accounted for this - the first two runs evidently revealing the horses' ability secrets, resulting in a small loss to SP despite a 33% strike rate - the positive A/E figure still implies some betting value going forward.

However, solely focusing on first / second time chasers, and exploring just a little deeper through the prism of race distance seems a sensible next step. The table below illustrates exactly this.

 

 

Performance at the shorter end of the distance spectrum is undoubtedly excellent. A total of 29 victories from 67 for those travelling less than 2 miles 1 furlong is mightily impressive. I’ve also highlighted a small pocket of exemplar stats for those at three miles too: although cherry-picking in this way is not to everyone's tastes, it can be seen that the broader range of three miles to 3m 2 1/2f is a strong collective.

My personal betting approach has been modified over the last year or so in that I no longer back angles blindly and have become far more selective regarding when I wager. Ergo, I’m not going to recommend ploughing in purely based on these stats (it’s not the geegeez way anyway). Nevertheless, a first or second time Skelton chaser in a novice, particularly over shorter distances, gets a huge tick in the box and a place on the race shortlist.

Reverting back to Harry Fry, he’s at the top of the overall novice chase tree with a 32% strike rate and an A/E of 1.22, so it’d be remiss not to check-in quickly, especially as there is one very clear (and perhaps somewhat obvious) trait within the data. That is market sentiment, the table below clearly highlighting that a well-fancied Fry runner is generally a very noteworthy thing.

[Just a point of order here: the 5/1 or greater set includes all prices, not just those up to 20/1 as per the rest of the article]

 

 

A huge tick, then, for a Harry Fry novice chaser that is prominent in the betting lists.

Based on the data so far, it’s a pragmatic step to survey whether there is further value to be attained in the “first time over fences angle (in novices)”. The table below gives the view from 2016 onwards sorted, as usual, by A/E.

 

 

The sample sizes are low in general (compared to the earlier Skelton behemoth at least), though obviously that’s the general nature of the game with racing datasets.

The trick is to assess whether the numbers are driven by chance or whether there might be an underlying performance angle to evaluate. Being data driven punters, we have a clear inclination towards the latter! However, there are several rows in the above table that do need taking with a pinch of salt. Despite this, the stats regarding Nick Alexander, Brian Ellison and the still up-and-coming Olly Murphy merit respect and much deeper consideration (although I'm not going to delve further here today - feel free to do some work and share your discoveries in the comments below!).

That about covers the “best” trainers by A/E. And there is also merit in making a quick tour of the high profile, high volume stables to aid general awareness of the novice chase landscape. With that in mind, here are the 'first time in novice chase' stats for those yards that seem to have runners in every race.

 

 

It's not a huge surprise that our mate Dan Skelton has the most runners. However, it is interesting - to me at least - to note that the master of Seven Barrows, Nicky Henderson, has a marginally profitable record, with a third of his debut novice chase runners prevailing. With Best Odds Guaranteed and general offers (or exchange betting) there is likely to be some value on offer here.

At the other end of the profitability line, giving a wide berth to Evan Williams first time novice chasers seems a sensible general play: mental fortitude is required in spades to knowingly weigh in with a 4.4% strike rate and a moderate place record to boot.

The next table is an education on volume versus value through the Henderson data. It’s immutable that the strike rate in non-handicaps at over 37% is top-class. However, in such races it appears that there is a paucity of value (with a negative 20% ROI). I’d imagine smallish fields and an attraction for punters to a Hendo hotpot results in these often becoming heavily overbet. Conversely, a debutant chaser in a handicap appears to offer value despite the reduced strike rate (still a mighty 26%).

 

 

Handicap Chases

Originally, this was going to be a two-part article broadly split into a first submission on novices, with a sequel covering open company. However, researching both simultaneously there was time-relevant data that I wanted to share now as it’s especially pertinent to this time of year. What is lost in flow, I hope will be offset by good solid insight!

One variable that I often evaluate but seldom find any notable output from is consideration of the age of runners. I’ve spent an inordinate amount of time panning for angle gold in this area: searching for snippets regarding weight-for-age, performance of the youngest horses in handicaps, and such like. Success has largely been limited, however I’m optimistic that there is something of at least some interest here. The following table shows performance by age in handicap chases using data from slightly earlier, 1st October 2015, to cover the full 2015-16 season. This data relates to and includes 20th November 2021.

 

 

Despite the small sample size, the four-year-old data are interesting (however, will park that for now).

Further exploration of the six-year-old information is the direction of travel I want to take. Whilst not being profitable as this level, I’m drawn to the c.2+% better strike rate than the other ages, better A/E and only a small loss to SP. Most importantly, though, perhaps is the chunky sample size of nearly seven thousand within which to delve more deeply.

In general terms horses tend to work their way up in trip throughout their careers. On that basis it’s a pragmatic step to inspect the 6yo performance by race distance. The theory being that they’ll outperform at either end of the distance spectrum: shorter distances as that’s where they’ll start their careers, unexposed to the handicapper, or longer trips where they are not fancied in the market due to their relative fledgling career.

 

 

The table can be broadly segmented into two. The green banded area represents short through to intermediate distances and the red box contains data for longer trips. There is more than an inference of better performance (in relative terms) over shorter distances, with strike rates, place rates, ROI, and A/E all consistently a tick or two above the longer counterpart info. I have ignored a small number of runners at beyond 3m 2.5f, incidentally.

Whilst this is not “angle” material per se, it’s an interesting backdrop to aid understanding of the outcome of a given handicap chase.

Taking these 6yo’s over the shorter/intermediate distances and evaluating by the length of time they’ve been off the track opens another potential door. As you might expect by now, there is a table below showing the data!

 

 

The obvious area of significance is within the green box: the aggregated numbers for this area are 496 runs, 109 wins (22.0%) and a 26% ROI, 1.27 A/E.

That pocket of enhanced performance in relation to horses having their first run between six months and a year since their last spin feels like valuable insight.

It may be speculation, but I’d posit that this age is typically of particular importance to an animal's chasing development. Absence may improve the level of capability / ability through maturity, schooling or another unknown change - wind surgery, for instance. Whatever the reason, that green box shows something worth knowing in my opinion!

Taking this one small step further, one of my favourite “against the market plays” is to back specific horses who endured a poor run last time out. Often the market overreacts which, coupled with a horse being off track for six months or more (still a potential against the market play as punters tend to like the assurance of a recent run), can be punting heaven.

Taking the 6yo chase handicappers after a layoff and evaluating whether they hit the frame last time out the below differentiation emerges.

 

 

There is a negligible variance in strike rates between the two datasets. However, A/E and ROI is much enhanced for the horses that failed to place in their last visit to the track.

In summary, keep a track on 6yo’s in chase handicaps, particularly if they’ve had a spell off the course and especially, for potential value, if they also underperformed last time out. I’ve checked and this does also apply to non-handicap chases, although to a much lesser extent.

The rationale of inclusion of handicap data in this article is that being that we’re now into the National Hunt season 'proper', and plenty of horses are hitting the track after a prolonged absence. Of the 496 runners in the off-track 6yo dataset, 415 of them relate to the months of October, November, and December. And of course, all these 6yo’s become 7yo’s in the new year. So, whilst the clock is ticking on 2021, this is something that will form a backbone of my chasing race evaluation in future seasons.

It won’t be so long until the next article, I promise! Until then, thanks as always for reading.

- JS

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