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We're constantly striving to improve Geegeez Gold, our flagship racecards and form tool service. After a few quieter months - lots going on in the background - we're about to inject a new metric into Gold.
We've deliberately kept it away from the more commonly used numbers, simply because if you don't want to engage with this, we don't want it in your way. At the same time, I very much believe you should take heed of the new number and that's why I've put this post together.
So, what is the new number? Well, it's not exactly brand new as we already display Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) within our draw content. But we're now extending it calculation and display to trainer, jockey and sire data. Here is some more information on Percentage of Rivals Beaten...
What is PRB?
Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) is a calculation based on a horse's finishing position in relation to field size. It makes key distinctions between a horse finishing, say, third in a five-horse race (PRB 50%, two rivals beaten, beaten by two rivals) and finishing third in an eleven-horse race (PRB 80%, eight rivals beaten, beaten by two rivals).
For a collection of results - for example, a trainer's record over the last year - we take an average of all the individual PRB scores.
On geegeez.co.uk, we express PRB as a number between 0 and 1. So, in the examples above, 50% is 0.5 and 80% is 0.8.
What is convenient about PRB is that a par score is always 50% of rivals beaten, or 0.5. This means that a trainer with a one-year PRB of 0.55, 55% of rivals beaten, is doing very well; conversely, a trainer with 0.45 as his PRB is under-performing in finishing position terms.
It is always important to remember that finishing position is not the only number in town and, as with all numbers, it should be used sensibly and in concert with other metrics.
Why is PRB useful?
PRB is useful because it helps to make small datasets bigger. In racing we are almost always hamstrung by small datasets, relative to what general statistics would consider so at any rate. And when we then try to discern knowledge from the data by looking only at wins we ignore seven-eighths of the information we have (assuming an average field size of eight, one winner, seven losers).
If we had 1,000,000 wins to consider, that wouldn't be much of an issue. But we don't. We have much smaller groups of wins and runs with which to work.
Historically I've used place percentages to enlarge the positive to negative comparison: using our eight-runner average, we now have three 'wins' (placed horses) for five losses (unplaced horses). That's much better but still lacking in nuance.
PRB awards 'score' to every runner except tail end Charlie in every race (ignoring non-completions which are dealt with separately - an explanation of how we've accounted for them will appear in the user guide as it will add little value here). This has some challenges of its own; for instance, a horse that went hard from the front and is still battling for third place will be ridden right to the line, whereas that same horse may be eased off if/when four others have already passed it: it has given its running already and there is little be gained from finishing fifth or ninth.
Such issues are accommodated up to a point by squaring the PRB figure, and you can see how that manages the curve in the post linked to at the bottom of this one if you're that way inclined.
The crux is this: PRB is useful because it helps us understand the totality of performance of a dataset rather than just a fraction (win or place, for instance).
How should I use PRB?
PRB has utility in isolation because every score can be compared to 0.5 to understand whether the thing being measured - trainer, jockey or sire performance in our case - is better or worse than what might be expected.
But, of course, we should expect that, for example, Paul Nicholls will have a far higher one-year National Hunt handicap PRB figure than Jimmy Moffatt. He does, 0.62 vs 0.5 at time of writing. But knowing that is unlikely to add to our bottom line; at least not in or of itself.
As it happens, both have been profitable to follow blindly in handicaps in the past twelve months: Nicholls has an A/E of 1.05 (and an SP win profit of +16.70) while Moffatt has 1.26 / +21.50.
If anything, Nicholls' figures are more impressive, for all that Moffatt's may be more sustainable.
What PRB tells us is the amount of merit in unplaced runs. It should be used to support understanding of an entity, rather than as an end in itself. And it is especially helpful in rendering the inference of small samples sizes slightly less of an act of folly.
Where does PRB live?
Regular Gold users will know that PRB - and its close relatives, PRB^2 and PRB3 - have been happily adding value to our draw content for some time.
And now (next week), PRB appears within trainer, jockey and sire data on the racecards and in reports. It is on the far right, out of trouble for those not (yet) interested in its utility.
On reports, it can be found in the same rightmost column location:
Use it or don't use it, but I'd suggest you make yourself aware, as a minimum, of what Percentage of Rivals Beaten is; and when it might pay to keep it in mind.
There was plenty going on around the country on Friday and Saturday and there was no disguising the authority with which Epatante won the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle on her reappearance, indeed her first sighting on a track since winning the Champion Hurdle back in March, writes Tony Stafford. If there’s anything more exciting on a jumps racecourse than a horse sprinting home after being waited with in the way she was under Aidan Coleman, I’ve yet to see it.
So she sets a very high standard and with that single lapse at the previous Cheltenham Festival in the mares’ novice hurdle last year as the sole blemish on her record for Nicky Henderson, she looks on target to dominate the two-mile division for some time to come.
The stayers also came into sharp focus with Friday’s Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury where Thyme Hill stepped up on the level of his novice achievements to show too much speed for former champion stayer Paisley Park, the pair drawing well clear of the favourite McFabulous.
There seemed no fluke about the result, Thyme Hill under Richard Johnson looking a more complete hurdler than he had last season. He had been unlucky when only fourth in the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle but after Friday’s display I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t reverse the form with the trio that finished ahead of him in March if and when they meet again: Philip Hobbs clearly has a contender for this season’s Stayers’ Hurdle.
That’s not to under-estimate Paisley Park who had been unstoppable for two seasons before his failure to complete the double in the big race at Cheltenham, a lapse explained afterwards by the discovery of a heart murmur. Emma Lavelle has brought him back steadily and no doubt owner Andrew Gemmill will have been delighted at how well he ran on this comeback. The prospect of a re-match with Friday’s winner, no doubt spiced with various Irish pretenders will make it one of the best races next spring.
My favourite performance on Saturday, though, was that of Pink Sheets in the mares’ Listed novice hurdle which opened the Newbury card and, while this daughter of Gold Well is most unlikely ever to be anywhere near the class of her two-month older contemporary Epatante, she’s clearly improving very fast.
When she was acquired by Micky Quinn on behalf of his principal owner, Kenny Bruce, boss of the Purple Bricks estate agency, she had just won a Huntingdon bumper by 16 lengths for the Mick Channon stable. Channon not only preceded Quinn as a former top footballer to take up training horses, but he also spent time as Quinn’s mentor, employing him as his assistant while teaching him the rudiments of the business.
The pair were both barn-storming strikers and until he got immersed in racing, Channon had a time as a football pundit, best known for the way he pronounced in his Hampshire burr “The Boy Line-acre!” on Match of the Day and such-like.
Quinny, while never an international, had considerable on-field achievements. He scored in each of the first four games he played in the Premier League and had the effrontery (sorry distinction) to score a hat-trick for Coventry against Arsenal. For many years he has combined training from his compact yard just off Newmarket’s Hamilton Road with regular spots on Talk Sport radio when his easy-going Scouser style made him popular with listeners, as it does with interviewers whenever his horses win on the track.
From the time of his first licence in 1998-9 – can you believe it Micky, 22 years as a trainer? – he has put together a tally of 183 wins and that with only ever a small string. Over those two decades he has had jumps runners only sporadically, a total of just 68 spread over the time until the start of this season with a couple of big gaps.
But then there was Pink Sheets. The Quinn jumping blank was still intact and it wasn’t a case of instant success with the mare either despite the ease of the Huntingdon win. It took two runs in bumpers from Quinn’s yard, one behind the smart Urban Artist and then three exploratory outings over hurdles before she was anywhere near the finished article. Then suddenly at Warwick eight weeks ago she finally clicked, beating Commander Miller comfortably off a mark of 103 and giving the trainer his first ever jumping winner. That opened the floodgates, the mare following up on the same track off 110 ten days later before completing the hat-trick at Kempton beating two higher-rated rivals from the Alan King and Olly Murphy stables despite carrying a double penalty.
So, coming to Newbury on Saturday her mark had already gone up by a stone and a half to 124, time then for Micky to give her a shot at Listed class. Despite the wins and this time running without a penalty she was allowed to start at 10-1. Jack Quinlan, who had been on her for all her previous outings sent her off in front and she went exuberantly over her hurdles, jumping fast and never getting challenged. The final margin was three and a half lengths over the well-backed Ahorsewithnoname (Henderson) and the favourite Mrs Hyde who had won four of her five previous starts for Brian Ellison.
The Racing TV coverage admired the performance but reserved final judgment for a comparison on the time she took compared with the later Intermediate Listed handicap hurdle for second-season jumpers. Henderson’s Floressa, rated 141, won that well-contested affair and got round in only 0.70 seconds faster than Pink Sheets.
I’m so pleased for Micky who proves it’s never too late for talent to shine through and that should be Quinlan’s motto too. It’s nine seasons since, as the conditional taking most of the rides for embryonic Rules trainer John Ferguson, Noel Quinlan’s son compiled his best season when still in his teens, with 27 wins.
I know it came as quite a shock towards the climax of that season with Cheltenham on the horizon when Sheikh Mohammed’s former right-hand man started putting Denis O’Regan on some of the better horses. The one-time assistant to Sir Michael Stoute, clearly enjoying the celebrity of his new role, presumably felt Quinlan was too raw for the bigger stage.
The stable, based at Cowlinge outside Newmarket, was home to many useful staying horses surplus to requirements in the Sheikh’s main-line Godolphin team, being sent with the idea to exploit them over jumps rather than sell them on at the horses in training sales as had been the practice in the past. It proved an instant success. Cotton Mill was probably the best of them, so after Quinlan had won a Grade 2 novice hurdle on the gelding at Warwick, he could hardly wait for the Festival.
But it was O’Regan rather than Jack in the saddle when Cotton Mill took on Simonsig for the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle and the young man had to watch on as Cotton Mill moved comfortably up to Simonsig going to two hurdles out. Then disaster happened for Ferguson, Cotton Mill running out to the inside of the obstacle and depositing O’Regan on the deck. Afterwards, John Francome, working on Channel Four television was asked by a fellow commentator what he would do with Cotton Mill. Without hesitation he replied: “I’d put Jack Quinlan back on him.”
Sadly Ferguson never really had a change of heart and for most of the ensuing time, Jack had to settle into the most singular niche role in jump jockeyship. For almost a decade he has been just about the only senior jump jockey in Newmarket. He schools for most of the stables that train jumpers in the town and rides a good proportion of all the town’s runners.
A combination of the two has been enough to keep him busy and since those 27 wins brought so much optimism as a 3lb claimer in 2012, his subsequent seasons of successively 10, 19, 16, 18, 23, 23 again, 21 and just 10 in the latest truncated campaign have made many consider he has been out on a limb. Just as many people reckoned Jack should have extended his horizons beyond his home base of Newmarket, but the lasting association with Amy Murphy and especially with her best jumper Kalashnikov, on whom he has won seven times including in the Betfair Trophy, have kept him within touching distance of the big time.
But now, with still five months of the 2020-21 season to go Pink Sheets has helped put him on to 20, so only seven shy of his best. I’ve also detected a much better appreciation of his ability. For years his name never got a mention in the press or on television after a win, the horse and trainer always getting the credit. Now, though, some of the younger course commentators and television pundits like Mick Fitzgerald are quick to register a good ride and he was given plenty of credit for Saturday’s enterprising win.
As to being a Newmarket jockey pure and simple, the facts are pretty compelling. All of the 20 wins this season have come from Newmarket-trained horses, and more than 100 of his 132 rides have come from representatives of 15 different Newmarket stables. Jack Quinlan is truly Mr Newmarket where jumping is concerned and, at last, he’s a man whose talent is getting fair recognition after all these years. Maybe even sometimes outside the Newmarket town limits!
In the first half of this two-parter, I started to look at something I term as ‘negative pace bias’, writes Dave Renham. The basic idea is to find races where there seems to have been a strong pace bias with a view to highlighting horses that have run well against it. I mentioned last time that one can never be 100 per cent certain whether there has actually been a pace bias in a race or not but, generally speaking, one is going to be right many more times than one is wrong.
To recap, there are two ways a pace bias could play out. Firstly, races where horses close to the pace from the start dominate: here we are looking for any hold up horse that has run well. And secondly, one where hold up horses end up fighting out the finish, in which case we look for prominent racers or race leaders that have run well.
As before, I have looked at bigger field – races of 15 or more runners – from UK turf flat and all-weather racing in 2020. In the first piece I looked in detail at five races and the subsequent form of highlighted runners; in this one I will look at another quintet of big field negative pace bias races.
Continuing in chronological order, and starting on 4th July, with the Derby.
RACE 6 - 4th July – 4:55 Epsom
One of the most iconic races of the year, the Investec Derby showed a strong pace bias this year as the result and race comments below imply:
This was an extraordinary race where the early leader, Serpentine, just gradually increased his lead in the final mile until he was over ten lengths clear with three furlongs to go. He basically slipped the field, and it was a triumph of pace setting by jockey Emmet McNamara.
What was equally remarkable was that the first three horses home stayed in those positions for most of the race. Not only that, all three were huge prices which, for me, strengthens my belief that there was a bias that day for those who raced close to or up with the pace.
Also don’t be fooled by the words ‘held up’ in Kameko’s in running comments, because as it says he was ‘held up behind leaders’ and for virtually the whole race he was positioned in 4th or 5th.
English King and Mogul did best of those who ran midfield for the first part of the race and they are the horses that seemed to have run best in terms of performing against the bias.
In English King’s next run on 30th July at Goodwood he finished 4th, but can you guess who won that race? Yes, it was Mogul, who scored at a decent enough price of 9/2. English King has run once more since, finishing 6th at Longchamp, while Mogul finished 3rd at York before scoring another victory at Longchamp in September (price 6/1). All in all, another good outcome for the approach.
RACE 7 - 5th July – 3:15 Haydock
For the next race we travel north to Haydock a day after the Derby. The Old Newton Cup is a decent Class 2 handicap, which this year strongly favoured horses coming from off the pace as you can see from the following race comments.
Seven of the first eight raced midfield or in rear early and only The Trader, who finished third, was close to the pace. Therefore, The Trader is the horse to take out of the race on the negative pace bias angle. He has run twice since, finishing 3rd at Ripon and then 4th at Newcastle. No future win yet but the Ripon race result with the comments are definitely worth sharing:
As we can see, the jockey on The Trader dropped his rein a furlong out. Not only that, he also got his whip tangled up. I think we could legitimately argue that he should have won that race, but for those two unfortunate incidents. Even with that happening he was only beaten by a neck and a neck.
RACE 8 - 8th July – 8:40 Newbury
Newbury next and a long distance handicap.
In this race, six of the first seven home came from off the pace with only Tralee Hills in 4th racing prominently. Clearly, Tralee Hills was the horse to take out of this one. He has run four times since with his results shown below:
As we can see he has not made the frame subsequently in four starts and in truth all runs have been relatively poor. Initially I thought it was interesting that Tralee Hills had been ‘held up’ in all starts since when trying to look for potential reasons or excuses. However, looking at his career record, he has actually raced close to the pace in just three of his 25 starts. The remaining 22 saw him positioned midfield or in rear early. If I had the opportunity to speak to his trainer, I might point out that racing prominently is a running style that may in fact suit his horse!
Over both articles, this is the first race of the eight I have looked at where, to date, the follow up results have shown no positivity. This highlights, of course, that no method or angle is fool proof, as I have indicated many times in the past.
RACE 9 - 17th July – 12:35 Beverley
A class 6 5f sprint handicap is next on the agenda with the first two, and the fourth home returning big odds.
As the comments indicate, six of first eight home raced rear (four) or mid-pack (two). Pivotal Art, who raced close up and finished 3rd, has only raced once since when well beaten into 10th on the all-weather. The sixth horse home, Newgate Angel, who had led until the final furlong returned to the same course and distance on 12th August. In a slightly weaker contest, he proved that the previous run had indeed been a good one, by winning relatively cosily at odds of 7/1 (result below).
It is interesting to note that Newgate Angel was drawn in stall one on both occasions, a favourable box for a front-runner at Beverley – when getting the run of the race.
RACE 10 - 17th July – 3:40 Beverley
The final race in review is a race later on the card that same day at Beverley. This time it was a 1m2f handicap.
This was another race where the pace setters struggled with five of first seven home held up out the back early on. The two horses to buck the trend were Ideal Candy in 3rd and Motahassen who finished 5th. After watching a video of the race I had a slight preference for the latter even though he finished two places behind Ideal Candy. My reasoning was that Motahassen raced a little wide early but despite this soon took up a position in 3rd. By halfway he was still close up in 5th and then in the straight he did not take a particularly direct line, veering and changing direction a couple of times.
Since this race, Ideal Candy has run poorly on five occasions with a best finishing position of 6th. Motahassen has fared better finishing 3rd next time before winning at the fourth time of asking at Redcar in October.
Whether one would have stuck with him for four runs is another question. However, if you did, you would have been rewarded with excellent winning odds of 12/1.
The five races in this sample have not been as ‘successful’ as the first five but, having said that, I believe over the ten races the angle has produced an impressive set of future results.
**
Putting ‘Negative Pace Bias’ to work for you
If you want to check out other races for yourself, you can do this through Query Tool on Geegeez, using the following step by step method:
Select 2020, UK, flat turf, flat AW, 15+ runners
Go to Qualifiers tab and sort by position (this is in order to get the race winners)
Click on the winner to go the race result
Select 'Comments' to view the in-running comments
Note any positive efforts against a bias
Go to back to number 3 and repeat the process.
Step 1 is something that can be tinkered with – those were just the parameters I chose. I have yet to check Irish races, but the same principle should apply so you could add that if you wish. Likewise, this method can be applied to National Hunt racing, too. Furthermore, you may want to limit races to handicaps only, as I would guess they work better in general, and of course you could look at slightly smaller field sizes to include races with, say, 12 to 14 runners. I would be wary of going below ten runners, personally.
When choosing races that fit your ‘negative pace profile’, this becomes more down to the individual. I tend to look at the first six to eight finishers and look at the split between pace horses (leaders/prominent racers) versus non-pace horses (horses who raced midfield or rear). Even then, I have no hard and fast rules, but clearly there has to be an imbalance between the two.
To conclude, I continually ‘bang on’ about pace bias and how useful it can be for punters. I hope these two articles may have swayed any ‘remainers’ to switch their allegiance!
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/intrinsic_StewardsCup.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2020-11-29 13:05:092020-11-29 13:05:09Running Well Against a Pace Bias, Part 2
The most interesting race of the day (and most difficult) is potentially the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase at Newbury on Saturday, which will be run at 3pm.
With the weather forecast set fair this looks likely to be run on good ground which could potentially catch a few of these out.
The Shape Of The Race
Looking at the pace analyser over staying trips at Newbury on good or good to soft ground we can see that those that aren’t too far from the pace are likely to be advantaged.
We have a fairly small data set here so this information should be taken with a slight pinch of salt. However most of the data points to a pace advantage. It’s not necessarily easy to make all here but front runners do have an IV slightly above 1 and a decent enough place strike rate of 21.05%.
Prominent racers have performed clear best in this sample. They have an outstanding IV of 2.19 and have been profitable to follow blindly producing a WIN PL of 7.25 and an EW PL of 19.56.
Those that race in mid division have performed well and also produced a profitable EW PL of 17.50 when followed blindly. However they have been very unprofitable to follow for win purposes.
What really stands out here is no held up winners from 66 runners. This run style has the largest number of runners and the least amount of success. Even the place strike rate is less than half as strong as that of prominent racers and only slightly better than half as good compared to mid division. It’s very likely that an extreme hold up ride will be a massive negative in this contest.
Looking at the pace map for this race, there looks to be no shortage of pace which will likely compromise the chances of anything that wants to lead exclusively.
It looks highly likely that Two For Gold is going to be the one that leads this field. He’s going to have to go off pretty fast to do so and he’ll be racing over two furlongs further than he’s ever gone before. He’s also jumped and hung right in the past so there are enough question marks here against him. There are a number of runners that look set to try to race prominently here and they include several of the market fancies.
Those nearer the head of the betting who could be more inconvenienced by their race position include the likes of Kildisart, The Conditional and Cloth Cap.
The Angles
Instant Expert
Instant Expert is a great way to gain a huge amount of insight into the field in a short space of time.
We can see from the above place data that several of the market leaders are yet to run here at Newbury. There are also some distance and field size question marks over a few of these, particularly for Two For Gold and Secret Investor who are yet to race over this distance and have never encountered this big a field before.
Black Op is yet place in two outings in 16+ runner fields whilst Copper Head has only manged to place in one run from four in class 1 races which is a worry. Mister Malarkey’s poor record in big fields is another stat that stands out here.
With most of the market leaders generally scoring well enough with their place data we might gain a bit more insight by looking just at the win data.
We’re seeing a few more question marks here now for win purposes. Vinndication remains a solid choice whilst Kildisart and Aye Right look vulnerable in this class. Black Op looked relatively reliable from the place data but now looks a poor choice considering the win data.
Copperhead doesn’t have the best place record in class 1 races but he has previously won a class 1 race and he has a pretty solid record in most of the criteria here.
One at a bigger price who is beginning to look interesting is La Bague Au Roi. She has the joint second best win ratio on this kind of ground, the clear second best win record in this class (only behind the early favourite) and she has won all three starts here at Newbury.
Related Form
One race that could hold the key here is the Ultima Handicap Chase from this year’s Cheltenham Festival. The winner (The Conditional), the third (Vinndication) and the fourth (Kildisart) all reoppose here and are all near the head of the market.
The Conditional stayed on really well up the hill, especially considering he made a mistake two from home. He’s generally been seen to best effect on softer ground although he was runner up in this last year, albeit off a 9lb lower mark. He has previously been withdrawn because of good ground and is conceding race fitness to many of these so could be vulnerable in this.
Vinndication was just over 2.5 lengths behind Kildisart at Cheltenham and is now 3lbs better off. Kildisart had a lovely pipe opener last month over hurdles and will enjoy this ground. He also had the cheekpieces back on that he wore at Cheltenham.
He is arguably a more solid choice than Vinndication who sports first time cheekpieces here. Vinndication’s sire, Vinnie Roe, has a 11.93% strike rate in national hunt races with his offspring and that only drops to 11.76% when running in this combination of cheekpieces and a tongue tie so there is a very good chance he is no worse for it at least.
Vinndication should be better placed in this race though which makes deciding between the pair difficult.
Hot Form
Secret Investor’s winning seasonal debut is working out well.
The third has won since and the runner up (Potterman, who reopposes here) was only a short head away from victory on his next start. Secret Investor won that race comfortably and is only up 6lbs here (due to go up another 3lbs) which underestimates the strength of that form. Potterman runs off the same mark again and is due to go up 5lbs following this race.
Black Op was a 4.75 lengths 4th to Imperial Aura last time out and that runner has since won a Grade 2. He was also less than 2 lengths behind Champ here last season. Aye Right was runner up on his first start of the season in a Kelso handicap and the winner of that race, Nuts Well, has won again since.
Other Angles
Amongst the most in form trainers here are Kim Bailey (Vinndication and Two For Gold) who has a 25.42% win strike rate and 50.85% place strike rate in the past 30 days from 52 runners, Paul Nicholls (Secret Investor and Danny Whizzbang) who has a 28% win strike rate and 52% place strike rate in the same period from 125 runners and Anthony Honeyball (Regal Encore) who has a 27.78% win strike rate and 41.67% place strike rate in the past 30 days from 36 runners.
Regal Encore also has some other trainer stats in his favour. Anthony Honeyball has a 2.07 IV here at Newbury over the past 5 years and an IV of 1.98 in handicaps.
There is concerning trainer form from Warren Greatrex (La Bague Au Roi) who has had no wins and just three places from 32 runners in the past 30 days.
Aye Right is interesting from a sire snippet perspective. His sire has a strong record in marathon races (21.35% win strike rate, 15.18 WIN PL). The same goes for Copperhead and Potterman whose sire has a 27.59% win strike rate and 15.0 WIN PL over this distance range.
The Conditional’s trainer, David Bridgewater, does well in both handicaps in general and handicaps in this distance range with an IV of 1.68 for both. Danny Whizzbang goes here for Paul Nicholls and Sean Bowen who have a 27.27% win strike rate here as a combination over the past 5 years.
The Verdict
The hot form and related form of Secret Investor (10/1) and Potterman (18/1) make the pair extremely interesting. Secret Investor does have to prove himself in very big fields but he has finished 1st and 2nd in 13 and 14 runner fields in the past so it really shouldn’t be an issue. His trainer is in excellent form and he’s likely to be very well placed, just off the lead. He did jump right last time though which is a slight concern but he’ll love the ground.
Potterman might not be so well placed, although if not prominent he shouldn’t be too far off the pace. He’s extremely consistent and seems well suited by marathon races on good ground, in line with his sire stats. He’s a bigger price than Secret Investor and is a bit more proven from a stamina perspective so is preferred and fancied to reverse form with Secret Investor this time around.
Vinndication and Kildisart should run well and La Bague Au Roi may have been interesting but her trainer’s form is a concern.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/derashercounter.jpg319830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2020-11-27 15:16:232020-11-28 10:51:47Secret Investor and Potterman Most Interesting In Ladbrokes Trophy Chase
You made it! This is the third and final part of the Three Week Challenge.
In this concluding part, we're going to look at bet selection.
We've already chosen the right races on which to focus in part one; and then in the middle section we've shortlisted our race runners into value contenders and overbets/also rans.
And now it's time to press home our opinions by making optimal wagers. That's the subject of the video below, and the report/link referenced in it and reproduced below the video.
This process in three parts WILL improve your betting if you work with it. Be patient, and forgiving of yourself; and review the races after the fact. Did things pan out as you'd expected? Did you over-/under-estimate any horses? If so, what are the lessons to learn? Focusing on one race a day, or whenever you have some time, like this will do wonders for your understanding of the game... and your enjoyment of it... and your bottom line!
Hello again, it’s been a while! It goes without saying that I’m delighted to be back “on-grid” and I very much hope that this article is the first of a steady flow over the next few months, writes Jon Shenton.
Expect the usual data-driven analysis in what follows. However, this time I’m going to move ever-so-slightly away from the approach of purely seeking angles and/or system bets. Whilst these are naturally going to be a result of the research, I don’t intend for that to be the be all and end all. In this series, I’m going to delve into the profiles of specific National Hunt trainers. The primary goal is to develop a deeper understanding of the circumstances in which stables excel and/or alternatively where they generally come unstuck.
To kick things off, I’m going to run the rule over the Somerset yard of Grade 1-winning trainer Jeremy Scott. It’s a safe start as this outfit seems to be omnipresent in terms of “good data” and I already have a couple of reasonably robust, well-performing data-driven “ins” which, of course, I’ll share in due course.
Firstly, some light optional reading on the Scott operation. If you have the time it is well worth kicking back with a cuppa and having a mooch around their website. There is an abundance of good info and a blog which is updated with greater regularity than most.
Of course, in addition, the yard also has an indirect affiliation to this very site through its relationship with Geegeez-sponsored conditional jockey Rex Dingle, who rides with regularity for Team Scott. [Rex's day job is centred at the yard of Anthony Honeyball, which you’ll already know is sponsored by Geegeez too].
I’ll be using a mix of Query Tool and Horseracebase for all the data in this article and all analysis relates to 1st Jan 2011 through to 7th November 2020 inclusive.
Jeremy Scott Runners: Performance vs. the Market
Firstly, when developing a feel for a yard, I often begin by examining performance in the context of the market. This gives a solid guide to the relative importance of the weight of money behind a runner from the stable in question. It can often be the case that a line can be struck through horses once they get to more exotic price levels. As a starter for ten the below table shows Scott performance by SP range.
These data have a reasonably clear division between the shorter side of pricing and the more fanciful range of SP’s. Notably, backing all horses indiscriminately where the price is on the skinnier side (equal to or less than 8/1) would result in a reasonable profit. It’s a 9% ROI across 927 runners over the near decade of performance from 2011. That’s an impressive stat and smashes home the mantra that keenly priced runners from this yard are at the very least worth shortlisting. The colour formatting on the ROI column demonstrates this in a clear enough way.
To further evaluate the outfit's overall performance the below graph gives an interesting perspective by comparing the Actual vs Expected market data for Scott runners against all the market averages by SP.
Basically, Scott comfortably outperforms the market across virtually all price bands, reinforcing that this is a trainer to keep firmly in the metaphoric crosshairs. As expected, the results at the prices up to 8/1 generally are north of 1.00, indicating market-beating propensity at these ranges.
The blue “average” line on the graph also demonstrates that if you habitually play at fancy prices then it’s exceedingly difficult, maybe close to impossible, to consistently beat the bookies. With an A/E of below 0.40 for all runners at 50/1 or greater it indicates what an uphill battle it is to prevail against starting price. [The exchanges reflect a more realistic representation of a horses chance of victory in these deep waters].
Circling back to Scott, here is the annualised breakdown of those runners at 8/1 or shorter, underlining that, historically speaking this stable is repeatedly a serious outfit at these prices.
A staggeringly simple and staggeringly consistent punting perspective, notwithstanding the smallest of small blips in a couple of earlier years.
Consequently, given that Scott’s runners are just 34-from-1042 (a little over 3% strike rate) when their SP is greater than 8/1 I’m going to ignore and exclude these runners from all subsequent analysis for the remainder of this article. It doesn’t mean that there isn’t value at some of these larger prices but, for the sake of brevity, starting with the more solid data set of keenly priced horses is a pragmatic option. There is always the chance of throwing the baby out with the bathwater in some cases, however, it’s a risk I’m happy to take.
Jeremy Scott Runners by Race type
When evaluating trainer records in National Hunt racing it is often a hugely worthwhile exercise to perform a check on the numbers by the different disciplines within the sport. It’s surprising quite how many yards display significant variance between the obstacle types. Through separation, value can regularly be attained.
In the case of Scott, there is variance between the chase and hurdle form with the smaller obstacle data being clearly superior. Bumper results are worth a distinct footnote due to their relative strength, albeit that's not an area of focus here.
By zooming in on hurdle form, further differentiation can be established by checking the handicap and non-handicap status of the race:
Again, performance is meritorious across both formats. However, the non-handicap form appears to be particularly noteworthy, with just about a third of runners prevailing and more than half making the frame, comfortably beating market expectations, too.
Evaluating at a slightly deeper level into specific non-handicap race type:
“None of these” relates to Graded/Listed races and all bar one of those runs relate to the stable star, Melodic Rendezvous, who won the G1 Tolworth Hurdle in 2013. That aside, performance in maiden and novice hurdles is exemplary. In fact, we’re into angle territory with this one: I’ll be setting an alert for any Scott runner with an SP of 8/1 or shorter in maiden and novice hurdle events over the coming months and hopefully beyond.
Jeremy Scott Runners by Jockey
Evaluating who are the go-to pilots for Scott is the topic for exploration in this section. It transpires that there are three jockeys who have secured by far the lion's share of rides for Scott during the ten years covered here.
Clearly, based on this table, Rex Dingle has an outstanding record when getting legged up for Scott. Incidentally, I did check and there is not a single winner at a price of greater than 8/1 in his Scott portfolio of rides.
However, there are a couple of considerations worth discussion in the Dingle data. Firstly, he is still is riding as a conditional jockey (now at 3lb claim) and it is not beyond the realms of possibility that his claim has historically been utilised to maximum effect by this trainer. As the claim expires over time, it may be that Dingle is called upon less frequently by the Scott operation. Or perhaps the dynamics of the horses ridden may change resulting in degradation of performance. However, that said, a Scott/Dingle combo at a short to middling price is a clear indication of general intent.
As a bit of a diversion I decided to inspect in detail how these three jockeys performed based on their pace position in the race. It’s in Query Tool so seemed it rude not to!
It may be of marginal benefit to know though, I maintain, interesting, nonetheless, that there is a clear variance in performance and style between the stable jocks.
In particular, the contrast between Scholfield and Griffiths is fascinating.
From the table above it can be seen that Griffiths leads from the front on over 28% of occasions. His performance on these front-running rides is strong, too, with an A/E of 1.44. Scholfield, by contrast, only leads in 13% of races where he’s piloting a Scott horse. (Note, there are some “null” pace scores, when a horse's run style cannot be determined from the in-running comments, which explains why the percentages for each rider do not total 100%).
I wonder if this is purely down to jockey discretion or whether the yard matches horses preferred run styles to the rider. Either way, it may be something to note in the future. A proven front-running or prominent animal with Griffiths jocked up may be upgraded in any shortlist. Scholfield less so obviously.
Dingle, as intimated, excels in most scenarios, although it should be noted that he has only led on five horses in the sample above. Interesting that such an ascendant talent is seemingly content to take a tow into a race with greater regularity than may be anticipated.
Jeremy Scott Runners by Race Class
One of my treasured angles over the past few years is remarkably simple in nature and has been consistently reliable in terms of returns. It relates to following Scott horses in the lower classes of UK National Hunt racing. See if you can spot it in the table below!
Whilst the numbers are solid enough across the board, it’s abundantly clear that Scott is a shrewd operator when placing his charges amongst the lesser lights. In 2020 thus far, for instance, he has a strike rate of four-from-nine; so there is no obvious sign of this letting up just yet. I’m usually inclined to produce deeper analysis and comment but on this occasion it is best to just let the speak for themselves.
For assurance purposes, here is the annualised performance. Of course, there are no guarantees in this game but everything being equal it’s well worth tracking Scott animals lining up in these lower echelons with maximum interest.
Jeremy Scott Runners: Seasonal Performance / Ground conditions
Broadly speaking, trainers are creatures of habit and one factor which is always is worth due care and attention is how a yard's form typically fluctuates across the course of a season or calendar year. However, it can pay to cross reference this seasonal view with how that stable's horses perform in specific ground conditions, particularly where National Hunt racing is concerned.
The logic for doing so is thus: given that ground conditions tend to be softer over the winter months, it could be easily argued that the primary reason a yard peaks in winter is because their horses are geared toward running in the mud, and not because their horses are highly tuned at that specific time of year.
It probably doesn’t overly matter, as horses that are mudlarks will be trained to peak with winter conditions in mind. However, I do think it’s pragmatic to check as, by focusing on winter (for example) rather than soft ground, it’s possible that other seasons' creditable soft ground performance is missed. Scott is a good case in point.
The two graphs below illustrate the performance by month. The left hand graph demonstrates the rate of return through backing all horses from the Scott yard. On the right is A/E performance relating to the same data. As you’d expect there is a strong correlation between the two.
This is a yard that appears to make hay when the sun starts to shine in the spring. Performance, whilst still of a respectable nature, is a notch or two lower as things progress through to late summer, autumn and into the dark winter months.
Naturally, it might then be expected that this yard would deliver stronger numbers on the slightly quicker ground which is usually more prevalent in the spring and summer months.
Bang in line with expectancy: Good to Soft, Good, and Good to Firm all sit proudly in profitability comparison against their slower ground counterparts. However, note the overall consistency of strike rate, both win and place.
To attempt to understand which of the ground or seasonal aspects is the primary driving force in performance it’s sensible to test the data by dividing it by month and by going. Perhaps it’s easier to explain with a graph. Below, the data show A/E of the yard's runners on good to firm, good and good to soft ground (the blue line). Soft and Heavy are represented by the broken orange bar (May through to September excluded due to small sample sizes).
The data do indicate a bias towards ground conditions being the primary factor rather than time of year. Performance of Scott horses appears to be stronger on the quicker ground across all months. It is also worth noting that the A/E’s of 1.00 or greater in deep ground conditions in March, April, September and November still exceed market expectation: likely profit still, but certainly a reduced edge.
Jeremy Scott Runners by Race Distance
Another element of differentiation of performance within the Scott dataset is race distance. Like many of the other topics, results are strong across the board. However, there is an advantage to consider when evaluating the yard's runners over the shorter or intermediate National Hunt trips, the table below demonstrating this:
A 20% strike rate for races of around three miles and beyond is not to be sniffed at. Nevertheless, it appears as though Squadra Scott has a stronger winning formula at distances towards the lower end of the spectrum. One to be filed under good to know.
Jeremy Scott Runners by Course
Finally, it would be remiss to omit track performance insight when considering any trainer. It’s often one of the first things to evaluate. In terms of Scott, he is an operator who seems to like keeping things close to his Somerset base. Most of the yard's runners are concentrated across the South West and West Midlands. The data below show track results (at 8/1 or shorter) sorted in A/E order for all courses where Scott saddled 30 or more runners. His local patch of Taunton is clearly a fertile hunting ground, displaying the strongest strike rates and P&L performance, as well as A/E value.
Essentially, it’s a picture of almost metronomic consistency. Perhaps the Taunton data may merit further individual study. However, the excellent all-round performance signifies that course data is of less relevance for Scott than it is for most of his contemporaries. Whist it is always prudent to check performance by track, this insight gives reasonable assurance that achievement is predominantly course agnostic.
Jeremy Scott Trainer Profile: The Summary
There is a lot to consider when weighing up runners from the Jeremy Scott yard and none of the data are mutually exclusive. Based on the analysis above, the identikit Scott runner might be:
Keenly Priced (8/1 or shorter)
Maiden or novice Hurdle
Good to soft or quicker ground
Rex Dingle as jockey (or perhaps a Matt Griffiths front runner)
Less than 2 mile 7 furlongs in distance
Class 5 or 6 Race
And perhaps at Taunton!
Incidentally, and probably not surprisingly, this perfect cocktail has never happened yet. But when the stars align, I’ll be ready! I’m a patient man.
Until next time.
- JS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/melodicrendezvous_jeremyscott.jpg319830Jonny11https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngJonny112020-11-23 23:15:342022-12-07 09:53:23Trainer Profiles: Jeremy Scott
Six former champion apprentices lined up for the Bahrain International Trophy and its first prize of £250,000 over a mile and a quarter of Sakhir racecourse on Friday, writes Tony Stafford. The least well-known of them by a long chalk, Scottish-born Lee Newman, was the unlikely winner on a stable second string owned and trained locally by Bahrain national Fawzi Abdullah Nass on his first run in his new surroundings.
Riding with great enterprise on the ex-Mick Halford-trained Simsir, a four-year-old son of Zoffany, Newman sent his mount past the early runaway leader four furlongs out and stayed on well enough to hold off a host of fast, but too late, finishers. Frankie Dettori on the John Gosden-trained but locally-owned Global Giant just failed to get up but still had inches to spare over Ryan Moore on the Aidan O’Brien-trained Sovereign, last year’s Irish Derby winner, to secure second spot.
Nass also provided the fourth, Port Lyons, another ex-Irish performer. Since joining from now-retired Madelaine Tylicki, sister to Freddy, also a former champion apprentice, who was forced to retire after a fall at Kempton in October 2016 left him paralyzed from the waist down, Port Lyons had won four in a row and carried by far the major hopes for the home team.
Fawzi’s talent as a trainer has been best advertised over the years by his exploits with the sprinter Krypton Factor whose biggest win came in the Golden Shaheen in Dubai where he always sends a strong team every Carnival. Alan Spence’s home-bred Salute The Soldier won two races for Nass early this year and no doubt will be on parade again at Meydan in the 2021 Carnival.
I wish I could find a full resume of the why’s and wherefore’s of Lee Newman over the past eight years. I vaguely remember bits of it as in how he had serious trouble with his weight, something the other quintet of champion apprentice alumni in the field on Friday have not had to worry much about in their careers. More certain is that he suffered a bad neck injury when riding in Australia late in 2018 and is based there, but he has been a regular visitor to Bahrain, and finished third on another outsider, Rustang, 12 months ago in the same race.
Friday was not the only time that Newman had got the better of the two global champions. In 2000, the year of his title, he arrived like a comet, winning 87 races, stepping up on the 22 of 1999. In that regard he had a considerably higher tally in his championship than either of Friday’s immediate victims. Dettori won his junior accolade with 71 victories in 1989; Ryan Moore, who had his first Flat rides in 2000, won his title three years later with 52 wins. William Buick, 50 in 2008 when he shared the apprentice title with fellow Andrew Balding trainee David Probert, and another Balding graduate, Oisin Murphy, won with 76 in 2014, but still 11 fewer than Newman.
The final member of that exclusive club in Friday’s field, and the most recent recipient of the title was David Egan, who rode 52 winners in 2017 and weighed in with 50 in the latest Flat campaign when he benefited from his association with the Roger Varian stable. David Egan’s father John, who rode his first winner in 1984, is, at 52, two years older than Dettori who will be 50 next month. Egan senior was also in Friday’s line-up.
Weirdly, neither of Newman’s closest rivals on Friday could manage to beat his tally in 2000. Moore had six wins, his first on the Flat – his initial winner was in a selling hurdle at Towcester earlier that year – then none the following year before going on his journey to the top. Dettori, having won 22 races in 1988 – coincidentally the earliest year for the statistics readily available to me, always far exceeded 87 in the ten years from his title until the Millennium when his tally dipped to 47 as a result of his being injured in that plane crash at Newmarket where his friend and later agent Ray Cochrane dragged him from the wreckage.
So what went wrong for Lee? Starting in 1998, when he didn’t trouble the scorers, Newman rode in the UK during only eight seasons, 1998-2002, then 2010-12 so with two eight-year gaps. After his title he achieved double figures only twice more, 22 in the year following his title and 43 in the second year of his comeback. Otherwise his scores in the three barren years were five, three and seven. In all, apart from that landmark 2000, his grand total in the other seven years he rode in the UK was only 102, small beer when you consider Murphy had 144 wins in this truncated year and Buick 137.
For sure Newman must have had talent way beyond the average. Richard Hannon senior clearly thought so as did David Barron. Between them the two master trainers provided him with 60 of his 189 wins. What a waste, but in the warmth of Australia rather than in cold UK winters on the all-weather, he perhaps finds it easier to keep his weight in check.
In all, the Bahrain International attracted five multiple champions. Dettori, Moore and Silvestre de Sousa, who was ninth on the very disappointing Bangkok for Balding, each have three titles. The present title holder, Murphy, has won the last twice and Jamie Spencer also has two championships, the second in 2007 shared with Seb Sanders. Other notables in the line-up were winter champion on the all-weather, Ben Curtis, who easily outscored Murphy and Buick overall this year with 164 wins, and Hollie Doyle, whose 131 wins set a record for a female rider.
Only three female riders have won the apprentice title: Hayley Turner, who shared the honour in 2005 with Saleem Golam, himself retired this year and now a barber in Newmarket; Amy Ryan in 2012, and Josephine Gordon four years ago. Doyle, a late bloomer, has the talent and connections to challenge Murphy and Buick, as well as her partner Tom Marquand even more closely in the coming seasons. How the racing authorities and the media, and indeed large swathes of the racing public, will be hoping she achieves that unprecedented accolade one day soon.
*
National Hunt racing continues to gather momentum and there will be many who love jumping at Kempton – me for one – frustrated that they will be unable to be there to see the smart Shishkin make his first steps as a chaser today. Like Altior, the latest brilliant two-mile champion chaser from the Nicky Henderson stable, this Supreme Novice Hurdle winner is being sent straight over fences rather than challenge for the Champion Hurdle next March.
There were plenty of reasons to think that Altior rather than stablemate Buveur D’Air should have won at least two Champion Hurdles as he had that horse well beaten off in third when they met in the Supreme. With the Henderson stable also housing the 2020 Champion, Epatante, who could easily repeat the dose next March, Henderson has a proven formula to follow. It is understandable that going in a beginners’ chase like today with four opponents would be less demanding than, say, a Fighting Fifth Hurdle. If he can cope – and his 1-6 forecast price suggests he will - with the four-year-old Mick Pastor, in the same McManus colours as Epatante, he should be on the way to the Festival once again.
There were a couple of nice performances yesterday at Navan when Minella Indo, beaten a length by Champ (Henderson/McManus) in the RSA Insurance Novice Chase at Cheltenham, cantered round under Rachael Blackmore to the sort of bloodless victory that the Shishkin connections will be craving this afternoon.
Earlier, fair hurdler Blackbow showed sufficient promise first time over fences for Willie Mullins in a beginners’ chase over two miles and a furlong to suggest he might develop into a Cheltenham contender next spring. Ruby Walsh, who maintains his close connection with the Mullins stable, reckoned on Racing TV that he’ll be a far better chaser than hurdler.
There were some smart performances over here on Saturday, the highlight being Bristol De Mai’s third win in four years in the Betfair Chase at Haydock, putting him almost in the Kauto Star category. Paul Nicholls’ multi-champion won the race four times and but for twice being diverted to Northern Ireland for seasonal debut wins in the JNWine Chase at Down Royal, he could have had an almost-unimaginable six in the same Grade 1 race.
This latest triumph For Bristol De Mai was gained at the expense of Nicholls’ Clan Des Obeaux. It had the Twiston-Davies stable mentioning the Grand National next April and at ten years of age it is easy to imagine the grey soaring over the fences. Clan Des Obeaux will now attempt to repeat last year’s win in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day when his stable-companion Cyrname is the obvious one standing in his way.
One impressive Saturday winner who will not go for the King George is the Kim Bailey-trained Imperial Aura. The handicap he won at Cheltenham last March will no longer be run, but in-form Kim will aim him at the Ryanair Chase where his bold jumping front-runner will be a big threat to anything the Irish can produce.
The most remarkable success of the day was back at Haydock where the David Pipe stable sent out Main Fact for a ninth win in the calendar year. Bought out of the Dianne Sayer stable for only £6,000 in May 2018, the Juddmonte-bred, who won as a young horse in France for David Smaga, was then off the track for almost 18 months until last December. A close third after making the running on stable debut, that set him up for his first win early in January. Off 104 in a two-mile Warwick handicap he launched a quick-fire eight-day hat-trick. Then it was two more close together wins in early March, by six lengths off 123 and 15 lengths off 9lb higher, already revealing astonishing progress.
Lockdown halted the momentum and it wasn’t until late last month that Pipe brought him out for a Flat foray, which brought three wins at two miles in under a fortnight, starting off at 60. He will be on 78 when the turf resumes next March. Judged on Saturday’s events, that figure will be nowhere near enough to stop him.
For here he was, having never previously run over further than two and a half miles, the distance of his Uttoxeter win on March 14, trying three miles on heavy ground in a 17-runner Grade 3 handicap hurdle sponsored by Betfair. Turning for home another Main Fact win looked most unlikely as, off 147, 7lb claimer Fergus Gillard could be seen to be riding away vigorously miles behind the leaders. In the end, though, the gelding’s will to win came to the fore and he strode past the highly-talented Third Wind to make it nine-in-a-row. Where will it all end? One thing’s for sure, they haven’t forgotten how to enjoy such winning streaks down at Pond House!
In this fourth and final Winter Gold series web broadcast, we look at the tools available to Gold subscribers. Specifically:
- The joy of a (good) Tracker, and how to use one properly
- Draw and Pace blue sky thinking
- Know thyself (and thy bets)
- Query Tool: where the really good stuff happens
If you like to arm yourself with nuggets of profit-pulling intel that other people don't have, watch this video and then set to work!
Matt
p.s. if you'd prefer to watch/listen slightly more quickly, use the ⚙ icon in the bottom right of the video screen and change the 'Playback Speed'.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/QTAngles3.png320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2020-11-18 18:34:562020-11-18 18:34:56Winter Webinar #4: The Tools One
Welcome to part 2 - week 2 - of this Three Week "The Price is Wrong" Challenge.
By now you should be comfortable reducing the 35-50 daily races down to between one and five upon which to focus attention. That was the focus of Part 1, Race Selection: if you haven't taken that on board yet, I'd recommend you do. The details are below.
Then, in this second part, we'll review the maths behind why beating the market is the key to long-term success; and we'll then go into shortlisting techniques and examples. There's nothing scary, I promise, though some elements might need a little practice: that's why we do things a week at a time!
Part 1, below, is about Race Selection: choosing your battles. Check that out here >
Part 2 - Shortlisting
And now we move the focus from the day's racing to individual races. Our next job is to whittle down a field of eight to ten runners to a handful of contenders. And that is the primary focus of today's video. Have a watch and then put these ideas to work for you.
HINT: If the video speed is a little slow for you (I do speak quite slowly), you can use the 'cog' icon in the bottom right of the video to change 'playback speed'. 1.5x might be an optimal combination of speed and comprehensibility, but you can figure what works best out for yourself!
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/tpiw.jpg320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2020-11-17 10:24:112020-11-17 10:24:11Three Week Challenge Part 2: Shortlisting
As regular readers of Geegeez will know I have a particular interest with running styles / pace in a race, writes Dave Renham. I strongly believe it is an area that remains misunderstood by many and essentially dismissed as unimportant.
In this piece I am going to examine a way to use pace to find future betting opportunities, something I call ‘negative pace bias’. To that end, I have looked at big field races (15 or more runners) from UK flat racing in 2020. This includes all weather racing, although the vast majority have been on turf as four of the six UK all weather courses have field size limits of 14 or less. Races with larger fields were chosen simply because I thought it would be easier to spot a potential pace bias.
So how does one determine whether there has been a potential pace bias in a race or not? Before I attempt to answer that, please note the word ‘potential’: it is important to say that one can never be 100 per cent confident that there has actually been a pace bias in a race or not. However, I think it is possible to be reasonably sure in certain circumstances.
For example, if you are watching a race and the horses that dominate the race have all raced up with the pace from the start, then it can be assumed that there has been a pace bias towards more prominently ridden animals, and against hold up horses. A reverse pattern could emerge of course with the race finish fought out by hold-up horses with all those racing up with the pace fading out of contention. Even in those scenarios, this method is far from an exact science. What is when it comes to racing?
Also, naturally, I am writing this article retrospectively. However, I do use this angle with my own betting and some of the races highlighted are ones I noted at the time, certain horses from which I ended up following.
In order to be able to write this article I needed to go through all the qualifying races and see if either of the two pace bias angles occurred. The key idea from here was relatively simple and hopefully logical. Once a race had been found where there seems to have been a pace bias, I looked for any horse who seemed to have run well ‘against’ this bias. More about these horses shortly.
In terms of finding the races I used the race comments in the Geegeez results section. From there I then watched the race video online to ensure the race panned out as the comments had indicated. [You don’t necessarily have to do this, but I personally like to see the bias for real as it were].
Normally I would expect to find one horse that may stand out given the circumstances outlined above, occasionally there maybe be more, but rarely will there be more than two; after all, if there was, then there probably wasn’t a strong enough edge in the race.
To summarise, we are looking for horses that have probably run much better than their finishing position may have initially indicated. Once finding a horse in my research that fitted the criteria, I reviewed how it ran in the races that followed. The hope or even expectation of course was to a see a ‘win’ in the finishing position column soon afterwards; and the sooner the better. After all we are trying to find a method that produces future winners that we will bet on.
Back briefly to the ‘now’ as it were. If you find such an ‘eyecatcher’ horse, as punters we have the difficult decision regarding how long we go on backing it in the future. Do we back it ‘blind’ in the next race? If we do and it loses, do we back it a second time, a third, a fourth, etc until it wins? Because we need to realise that it might not win within the next three or four races, it might not even win again within the next ten or twenty. Do we instead back it any time it runs in the next 4-6 weeks? Do we look at future races on a case by case basis digging deeper before making a final decision whether this is the right time to back it?
Deciding upon the right approach is essentially impossible and is all down to individual preference. I guess the ‘results’ from this article may help shape a method – should you decide there is sufficient mileage in what follows. For the record, I personally make decisions on a race by race basis and each horse will remain on my ‘pace horses to follow list’ for three or four runs maximum. If and when a horse wins it is invariably removed from my list.
At this point it is worth mentioning that when I am testing new ideas for the first time, like this one, I am very systematic to begin with. This is because a rules-based approach is much quicker when all I want to do is to get a ‘feel’ for whether an idea shows merit. During any testing phase I check results in two ways. Firstly I focus simply on the next run to see if they would have returned a profit, and secondly I look at the next three runs but will STOP AT A WINNER (should there be one). This is a variant of the method Nick Mordin used in his iconic book ‘Winning Without Thinking’ where he used the next three runs regardless on various ‘systems’.
Now I won’t be able to examine every race in 2020 that ‘showed’ a pace bias along with its aftermath, otherwise the article would become more like a thesis! However, there is still be plenty here to get our teeth into. The following are in chronological order the first ten ‘pace biased’ races I found, in the hope that they offer a variety of future outcomes. There is a lot to look at so what follows are the first five of those ten races.
RACE 1 - 7th February 2020 – 4:35 Chelmsford
As you can see below this was a 15 runner class 6 handicap over 1 mile. Looking closely at the race comments, you will see that the first four finishers raced up with the pace, as did the fifth despite an awkward start. Horses 6th all the way down to 15th raced midfield or at the back. To me this race showed a very strong bias to horses that raced near the front.
Two horses catch my eye. Bird To Love who finished 6th and Zayriyan who finished 7th. These were the best of the midfield/held up runners with only a head separating the pair at the line. Both were around three lengths behind the winner. The 8th placed horse, Irish Times, was a further 2 lengths back and it makes sense to me to ignore that one.
Before discussing what happened next, this was not a race I noted at the time. I’m giving a bit away here by saying I’m wishing I had.
Both Bird To Love and Zayriyan raced again just under three weeks later. Amazingly they reappeared in the same race, again at Chelmsford, but this time over a quarter mile further. The result is shown below:
Not only did they fill 1st and 2nd in their very next race, but there are two other things that also stand out. Firstly, look at the distance they beat the third by, over five lengths. Secondly look at the prices: if you had backed both at SP you would have made a 24-point profit. The straight forecast paid over 293/1, while the exacta returned a mouth-watering 514/1.
Of course, amazing outcomes like this are rare, very rare; and I’m gutted I missed it at the time. I doubt I would have been brave enough to have backed the 1-2, but I am fairly certain I would have backed both horses individually.
Before getting carried away, though, this type of result occurs extremely rarely; it just happens to be the first ‘qualifying’ race I found in 2020.
RACE 2 - 16th June – 4:40 Ascot
Royal Ascot often has big fields and this 19-runner race seemed to show a relatively strong held up pace bias. Four of the first five home and six of the first eight came from off the pace. The first eight horses with their comments are showed below:
Summer Moon did clear best of the prominent racers, hanging on for 3rd, so from a pace perspective he was arguably the horse to take out of the race. Land Of Oz was the next best of the ‘pace’ horses, finishing over five lengths further back in 6th. It still looks a decent enough effort considering it was a long distance slog, but Land Of Oz has not raced since. It will be interesting to see how he performs when he returns to the track.
Let’s now look at Summer Moon’s record including this race and subsequent ones:
As we can see next time out he ran a shocker at Sandown although to be fair he had gone up in class to a Group 3. Back in handicap company he came 8th next time, beaten five lengths, before winning at York at the rewarding odds of 18/1. For the record, this horse did appear on my radar after the Ascot run, but after his Sandown flop I unwisely crossed him off my list of horses to follow: a frustrating outcome for me considering he won within three races at such good odds.
RACE 3 - 17th June – 2:25 Ascot
The following day another Royal Ascot race again showed what seemed like a hold up bias:
Although the winner raced close to the pace, as did the 5th, they were the only two from the first 11 runners home that did. The remaining nine came from off the pace. Horses that win despite a bias are still horses to be interested in. Now, of course, if they won a handicap they are going to go up in the weights, which potentially makes winning more difficult in the near future. However, they still should be of interest as we know horses in form can run up winning sequences, and we also know – or believe – that the horse overcame a pace bias to win. In this case, the winner Hukum stepped up to a Group 3 next time at Newbury (15th Aug) and continued the winning thread at odds of 4/1.
Arthurian Fable, the horse who finished 5th, went on to win a handicap two races later as shown:
All in all, this Ascot race worked out extremely well from a negative pace bias perspective.
RACE 4 - 18th June – 2:25 Ascot
The Britannia, a mile handicap at Ascot for 3yos only, is the next race I found. Big field handicaps over Ascot’s straight mile traditionally tend to favour horses from off the pace and even more so on softer ground. The Pace Analyser shows how the strong the hold-up bias has been since 2009 on soft/heavy ground in 1m handicaps (albeit from a small sample):
This race was no exception and conformed to the hold-up pattern. The winner won extremely impressively having been way off the pace early, but both Finest Sound (2nd) and Overwrite (6th) appeared to be ‘negative pace’ horses to note the race. The first seven home and their race comments are shown below:
Let’s look at the subsequent runs of Finest Sound and Overwrite. First Finest Sound:
To date just two more runs; a decent third next time out at Newmarket before a poor run at York. Meanwhile, Overwrite returned to the track 10 days later at Windsor winning a class 2 handicap:
The price of 11/5 was perhaps a bit disappointing given he was 40/1 when 6th at Ascot, but this race again highlights that following horses that have run against a pace bias have the potential to win soon afterwards.
RACE 5 - 20th June – 4:10 Ascot
One of the big handicap sprints of the year, the Wokingham, provides the next example:
Five of the first seven finishers raced from off the pace which seems a common theme at the Royal meeting regardless of distance. Hey Jonesy however, made all the running to win which not only looks a fine effort in the context of this specific contest, but when looking back through the history of the race it becomes clear that leading from start to finish in the Wokingham is nigh on impossible: in the last 30 renewals of this big field cavalry charge (going back to 1991) no horse has previously led from start to finish. The closest was Selhurstpark Flyer back in 1998, who led the centre group that day but was not the overall leader until hitting the final furlong. Hence this seems an even better performance than it originally looks. However, all that glisters is not gold, and Hey Jonesy has been well beaten three times since his big day in June, as we can see:
In many ways, that’s a good outcome because it reminds us that all approaches are fallible, and that sensible staking and managing our expectations are pivotal mental attributes even when deploying a solid strategy.
Back to the Wokingham, and Stone Of Destiny, who finished 6th, is another horse that caught my eye having raced prominently. He was beaten less than two and half lengths. Although he was well beaten in his next two runs he then came 2nd before prevailing at 16/1 in another marquee event, the Portland Handicap at Doncaster.
The question all of us should be asking at this point is would we have followed Stone Of Destiny until this Doncaster run? It is back to that quandary again, being down to individual preference with no right or wrong answer. Here are two of the possible ways it could have gone:
Stone Of Destiny having run two poor looking races in a row in his next two runs is discarded after race 2;
After doing some post-race analysis you notice that six furlongs may be a bit of a stretch for this horse. Let me elaborate on the reasoning you may have used to reach this conclusion. In the actual race he was 2nd with just over half a furlong to go before fading slightly into 6th. That meant he had won just once in 12 attempts at the six-furlong distance with the sole win being on debut in a novice event. Overall, his five-furlong record was better with two wins from nine including a class 2 handicap win at Ascot in the summer of 2019. It looks that although potentially effective at 6f, those last 100 yards, especially on a stiff track like Ascot, are a few steps too far. Hence it would be likely that you would upgrade his Wokingham run for not only running well against a pace bias, but also potentially battling his own distance bias, too.
It is almost certain therefore you would have backed him at Ascot next time over 5f (11th July), a day on which he reared at the start which severely compromised his chance. Most people would immediately forgive that run if they’d seen it. His second subsequent run was at Goodwood in the Stewards’ Cup back over 6f (1st August). This is a much easier 6f so you may have backed him again hoping he would just get the trip, or you may have swerved.
He again ran well for about five furlongs before fading badly in the final eighth of a mile. Once again he had credible excuses. His 3rd run after the Wokingham was at Sandown back over 5f. This would probably have looked a great opportunity and indeed he ran very well, finishing 2nd.
So although three races in, Stone Of Destiny would still look like he is knocking at the door. You therefore decide to back him again next time dependent on conditions. The race as stated earlier was the Portland at Doncaster and although it says the distance is 6f on his race record (see above), it is actually 5f 140 yards. This equates to just over 5½ furlongs, though nearer six than five. You feel he is certainly worth a chance at this interim distance. He goes on to win as we know at 16/1. Happy days!
Both of those two scenarios could have emerged and I wouldn’t argue against anyone who chose either route. There are of course many other ways this could have played out and a good number of those I’m sure would have been logical as well.
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So there we have it. Five races in and I have another five races to share and analyse in the second half.
All in all there have been some very positive signs for this method to date, albeit from an extremely small sample of races. Will the next five work as well? Honestly, I think it is highly unlikely that they will, and I certainly cannot envisage a similar outcome to the first race I looked at. But you never know. Let’s hope that we don’t draw a blank with the next five finding no future winners at all!
Also next time, I’ll show you how I researched this, and how you can find your own negative pace biases using the Geegeez toolkit.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/intrinsic_StewardsCup.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2020-11-16 08:38:212020-11-16 08:38:21Running Well Against a Pace Bias, Part 1
Success in any area of endeavour depends firstly on talent, writes Tony Stafford. But then again there have been very many gifted people who didn’t have the resolution or determination to project that natural ability into the ultimate result. Above all, even given those important requirements, you still need a little luck.
Take Sam Thomas. When he started out as a jockey in the early 2000’s his first two seasons yielded no wins from three rides in 2001/2 and one from 24 the following winter. Then came the fortuitous connection with Venetia Williams and an instant upsurge. The next three campaigns brought 47 and 55 twice, a momentum that only accelerated further when Paul Nicholls took notice of his qualities.
In 2006/7 73 wins from 462 rides took his winners’ prizemoney to more than £750k, in great part thanks to Kauto Star’s Betfair Chase score at Haydock Park. The next year, now firmly established as Denman’s rider, Thomas had 88 wins from a career-high 563 rides and an almost doubled figure of earnings at a sliver under £1.5 million. He went close to maintaining that level with 78 in the following season but, from that point, the peak had passed.
So, like Covid-19 in the summer, down went the numbers. Twenty-seven, a slight rally to 36 and then 30 told the tale over the next three years, but 10 from 201 mounts and then three from 65 in 2013/4 signalled the end. Sam had been in the company of two of the country’s most accomplished trainers and ridden some great horses so the wish to have a shot at the conditioning side of the business was understandable.
He clearly had talent and certainly the good fortune to ally himself where he had done for the ten years of the middle and most productive part of his 15-year riding career.
Now came the difficult part. All the expense and organisation that go with setting up stables were the obvious obstacles to overcome. But by the 2015/6 season as he quietly, rather anonymously, finished riding, he had gathered together a team of horses. Eleven of them got to the track, but none of their collective 30 runs yielded that elusive first win. The next year, a quartet of successes came from 59 appearances and 16 active horses. The steady increase followed with 79 runs and seven wins from 28 individuals in 2017/8 and Sam must have been delighted when Dai Walters, initially often with partners, sent a number of horses to him for the following campaign.
From little acorns they say, great oaks can grow but it would have been understandable if the owner of Ffos Las racecourse had thought again when those eight horses appeared a collective 16 times for no wins. Therefore, it might have been a great relief for Sam when, in his second season training for the businessman, eight Walters horses won two races from 23 runs.
The figure may well have been improved had the latest jumps season not ended abruptly in mid-March with his score on six. By that time the Horses In Training annual had already been published. Sam Thomas, from his base near Cardiff, had 38 horses listed, 15 with the Walters Plant Hire name affixed. One or two of these remained in partnership but this was clearly a case of Dai’s putting most of his ownership eggs in an upwardly-mobile Welsh-based basket.
Thirteen of the Walters horses have run so far this season and, until recently, progress was steady rather than spectacular. But this month the transformation has been astonishing: since November 5th, that’s 11 racing days, Sam Thomas has had nine runners, eight in the dark blue and white of his principal owner. Six have won, five of them for Dai, one more finished second and a further two were third; the biggest losing margin was just one and a half lengths.
It’s never a guarantee that one major owner can propel a trainer into the top division, although not just trainers but jockeys, as the saying goes, can’t go without the horse; and so many capable people in the sport are never destined to hit the heights as the chance of getting a good animal is so remote.
In those 11 days Sam Thomas has won with bumper horses, hurdlers and chasers. The biggest win was yesterday’s Cheltenham Listed bumper success with Good Risk At All, a son of No Risk At All – bet it took a while to think of that one, Dai? Like the Thomas training career, Good Risk At All has been a slow burner. Bought at Arqana three years ago he didn’t make the track until last month when he finished second at Newton Abbot. Despite going up in grade at Cheltenham he saw off a recent Oliver Sherwood Fontwell winner with a good display of stamina on the heavy ground.
Thomas, with nine wins from 33 runners, is already well past his previous best score of seven, but the brilliant form of his horses makes him the most strikingly in-form trainer around.
The rapidity with which the ground at our top jumping tracks can go from good to heavy after rain is going to be a cause for concern among trainers who have good-ground horses in their care. For much of last winter, indeed until a few days before Cheltenham’s ill-starred Festival, abandonments and/or heavy ground were the order of the day for months with barely an oasis of good going to be found. Looking out of the window recently it seems we might be having more of the same.
Cheltenham’s three-day November fixture started on good to soft on Friday but by yesterday the ground had become as near to heavy as makes no difference when times and the class of horses on show were considered. There were, as ever, fine performances on all three days with Put The Kettle On yesterday showing once again that she has the talent to beat the boys at close to the highest class when winning the Shloer Chase. Henry de Bromhead’s mare’s task was made easier of course with the defection of Harry Whittington’s much-fancied Rouge Vif, the trainer having previously stated that he’d try to avoid deep winter turf with the polished top of the ground performer.
On The Blind Side was regarded as a potential Gold Cup horse as he went impressively through his novice hurdle season but the Nicky Henderson inmate did not take to chasing. Returned to hurdles and in pretty strong company too on Saturday, he showed he retains all his courage and a fair portion of his ability by staying on strongly to win a competitive three-mile handicap.
On The Blind Side won only one of his seven chases but a characteristically sharp bit of race planning by Henderson took the gelding to Newcastle for a jumpers’ bumper three weeks before Cheltenham. He won it and then missed the Festival which in retrospect looks like a good decision. Saturday was his first appearance since and had he never run over fences, his career record would have been six wins from eight starts, all bar his point-to-point debut in Alan Spence’s year-round-successful colours.
Gordon Elliott has been dominating the juvenile hurdles in Ireland and won two with Duffle Coat, at 16-1 on debut having never raced anywhere beforehand, and then at 1-6 with his penalty. Leaving his lesser lights to continue to mop up at home, Elliott sent Duffle Coat recently to Wetherby for a Listed race where he outstayed and outclassed some capable home-trained previous winners and on Saturday employed that stamina again to give weight away all round impressively in the JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial, in receipt of an outstanding waiting ride from Robbie ‘Puppy’ Power. It’s a bit early to be talking of the Triumph Hurdle itself but it will take a good one to wrest him off the top spot.
Two more impressive performances had come on Friday when Kim Bailey’s Does He Know (Grade 2 Ballymore Novice Hurdle), and the Skeltons’ Protektorat in a small-field but high-class novice chase, also gave notice that there is plenty more to expect from them in their respective divisions.
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I was saddened on Sunday evening to learn of the death of Des O’Connor, the all-round entertainer and all-encompassing nice bloke at the age of 88. I met him only once, when I was sent by the Press Association to Ludlow – my first visit there, or was it Hereford: why did I chuck away those old form books? I had to go into the winner’s enclosure to interview him after his horse Bermondsey – unplaced earlier in his career in the Derby - won a novice hurdle. I can clearly picture him sporting a black leather coat, not exactly jumping garb in the age of tweeds. He was one of the old-style performers who could do everything quite well and never minded being ridiculed on his guest TV appearances by such as Morecambe and Wise. Goodbye Des and I’m delighted that racing gave you so much pleasure. I can certainly vouch for one enjoyable day all those years ago when he seemed totally unaffected by his fame.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/GoodRiskAtAll.jpg318830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2020-11-16 08:13:352020-11-16 08:17:25Monday Musings: There’s No Doubting Thomas
As we're in varying states of liberty constraint at the moment, for entirely good and important reasons of course, I thought it might be fun - and perhaps helpful/interesting - to set up a three part challenge over the course of the next few weeks.
The aim of this challenge is primarily to improve decision making. Better decisions mean a more refined approach to wagering, and a greater focus on the right puzzles. That will subsequently equate to more fun and more profit (or less loss, depending on where you are now).
Importantly, I wanted this challenge to be accessible to all, regardless of whether you're currently a Gold subscriber or not; and I wanted it to help users understand how to get more from the toolkit we offer, again regardless of being a Gold user or not.
In point of fact, I've no idea how this will play out, as it's a first try. But the approach should have merit, and I hope will be enjoyable as well as instructive. So here's what I'm thinking...
I've called it, "The Price Is Right Wrong", and the fundamental aim of the challenge is to try to help you to identify horses that will go off at shorter prices than you can back them earlier in the day. This is 'value', and it is the core objective of every winning bettor.
Just mull that in the ol' grey matter for a minute, because it's important. The core objective of winning bettors is NOT to back loads of winners. Not necessarily, at least.
Rather, it is to trust the implicit efficiency of starting price betting markets, and to aim to beat those odds lines. The most accurate barometer of the outcome of a race is the starting price (exchange starting price, in truth, but ISP is closing that gap since racing went behind closed doors). Therefore, if we as punters can consistently take a better price than starting price, we will win over time. We WILL win over time. It is incontrovertible.
OK, so we're going to be trying to consistently beat SP. In other words, we're going to be looking for horses where "the price is wrong".
If you're still with me, then, as the late great Leslie Crowther used so wonderfully to implore his excited studio audience, come on down!
A Challenge in Three Parts
The Challenge will be in three parts and, as with betting itself, this is not intended as a direct battle between competitors. Instead, the aim is as a catalyst for self-improvement. In a fun, engaging kind of way.
The three parts can be days, weeks, or as long as it takes. For the purpose of this we'll work it over three weeks, this being week one, but there's no end date so take as long as you need!
The three parts are as follows:
Part 1: Race Selection
Choosing the right races means giving ourselves the best chance of finding an edge. Race selection is at the bottom of the pyramid of edges and, if appropriate thought is given at this stage, prospects at every turn further up are amplified. But which are the right races? This depends on what and who you know, or - in the case of this challenge - what data you have at your disposal. Things to consider might be:
- Not too many (or too few) runners
- Plenty of form on offer (which usually means older horse handicaps)
- Those with a 'setup' bias (draw, pace, ground, etc)
Part 2: Shortlisting
Having identified a few of the right races, or just one - again, time will determine that - the second job is to separate contenders from pretenders. There is little point in betting all (or nearly all) runners, and nor necessarily should we only bet a single horse in a race. Such decisions are informed by the shortlisting process. Again, there is no right or wrong way of doing this - different strokes for different folks and all that - but in the context of this challenge, we'll home in on one or more of:
- Instant Expert
- Pace (and draw for AW races)
- Trainer form
- Hot Form
- Ratings analysis
- Form profiling
How many of these you cover will depend on your available time, level of experience, and appetite for tinkering. But introducing any of them (which are new to you), as opposed to none of them, will almost certainly improve your punting acuity.
Part 3: Bet Selection
There are plenty of outstanding form book judges who are hopeless punters. Why? Because they choose the wrong bet types, or they over - or under - stake, or they are insufficiently price sensitive, or they don't have enough accounts (by choice rather than as a result of closures/restrictions). In this part, the focus is on optimising our smart judgement in parts one and two by making the right plays. These could range from simple to more complex:
- Taking the best price available
- Availing of Best Odds Guaranteed where possible
- Considering extra places versus the place fraction returns
- Win bet vs each way vs 20/80 vs place bet
- Without favourite markets
- Dutching
- Laying
- BOG optimization via multiples
Come on down!
So, let's do this. The most important thing at this stage is to avoid overwhelm. The above might seem like a lot: that's why we're doing it in stages! And how many, if any, of the elements you personally engage with will depend on your time, experience and interest constraints. But know that the very act of committing to this sort of an exercise already marks you out as an above average bettor. But I want more for you than that!
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/tpiw.jpg320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2020-11-10 08:26:092020-11-12 19:02:35“The Price Is Wrong” – Three Part Challenge
Last week I concluded my offering with a suggestion that nowadays “fewer and fewer Europeans make the trip over to the Breeders’ Cup”, a statement gently modified by the Editor who said simply that this was not the case, writes Tony Stafford. In the event 31 horses represented four European nations – the French sent only two to Keeneland, Kentucky on Friday and Saturday, and the Germans one. Fifteen came from Ireland and between them they collected two winners, nine places up to fifth, and four unplaced.
The UK had ten runners and provided one winner, but it was the newly- and fiercely-independent nation of North Yorkshire which had the best proportional return from its three raiders with a win, a third and one unplaced. It wasn‘t the usual suspects either. There was no sight of a Mark Johnston, Richard Fahey, Tim Easterby or David O’Meara challenger. Instead, it was left to Nigel Tinkler and the two Irish-born imports Kevin Ryan and John Quinn to fly the flag for Malton and nearby Hambleton where Ryan trains with such success particularly with his sprinters.
The caricature of the Yorkshireman, perhaps best exemplified by Mick Easterby or even Geoffrey Boycott, is of a bluff, self-made man who likes what he likes and knows more than you. When it comes to training they certainly know their stuff. It was only a few years ago that the North in general couldn’t attract owners. Now there’s no such built-in inferiority complex.
The first three Yorkshire-based trainers mentioned – Johnston, Fahey and Tim Easterby – all train upwards of 200 horses, while O’Meara has well past 100 in his care. Ryan also handles more than 100, but the versatile Quinn operates on a smaller scale. Tinkler has run 67 horses this year – non-runner in Horses in Training! - for 28 domestic wins, and he has done extremely well with the progressive two-year-old Ubettabelieveit. In Friday’s Juvenile Turf Sprint , the Kodiac colt finished only a staying-on length and three-quarters behind the Wesley Ward flying machine Golden Pal.
To put that in perspective he was a similar distance in front of fourth-home Lipizzaner, the first of the Aidan O’Brien team which in general ran very much to form.
The UK runners could be put in three geographical training regions. Newmarket provided six; three from John Gosden and one each from James Fanshawe, Michael Bell and Roger Varian. Fanshawe in a 30-year training career had never previously ventured to the Breeders’ Cup, but he chose the right horse and indeed the perfect race. His three-year-old filly Audarya took the Filly and Mare Turf with a strong finish and a masterful ride by Pierre-Charles Boudot, standing in for Covid-19 side-lined Ioritz Mendizabal who’d ridden her in two previous runs in France, including when third to Tarnawa in the Prix de l’Opera on Arc Day.
Lambourn and environs, including the Hampshire borders, provided four runners. Andrew Balding sent 2,000 Guineas winner Kameko but he faded on the rail after looking a possible winner in the Mile; Ralph Beckett had two unplaced runners in the Juvenile Turf while Archie Watson and Hollie Doyle’s venture in the Juvenile Turf Sprint was destined for disappointment when Mighty Gurkha missed the break and finished 11th.
If Ubettabelievit exceeded expectations, that’s nothing to what Kevin Ryan needed to overcome in the Turf Sprint. Glass Slippers had already won and then finished runner-up in the Prix de l’Abbaye, so she had strong form credentials, but no European horse had ever previously won this race. As the trainer explained, Glass Slippers always runs best in the second half of the season. As a juvenile, she won for the first time on August 16 third time out. It needed five runs last year as she clicked into gear on August 4 before going on to beat So Perfect by three lengths in a soft-ground Abbaye.
This year she started by twice taking on Battaash at Ascot and Goodwood, finishing fifth and then second to the Charlie Hills speedster. It was not until September 13 in this truncated season that she won again. Ryan took her to the Curragh for the Group 1 Flying Five and she collected the £113,000 prize which also provided a free ticket to the Breeders’ Cup.
Next came the second venture at Longchamp and this time, on officially heavy ground, she beat all bar Wooded, who prevailed by a neck under Pierre-Charles interestingly with two John Quinn sprinters just behind in third and fifth. Tom Eaves was in the saddle that day as he has been in all bar one of her 17 starts which have produced seven wins. After Saturday’s race, Eaves, who had 26 UK victories in the past season at barely five per cent, paid tribute to Ryan and the filly’s connections for staying loyal as this was his first visit to ride in the US and also to Ryan Moore for advising him on how to ride the track.
Any amount of advice couldn’t have produced a more instinctive and opportunistic seizing of the opportunity to find a gap while others more versed with Kenneland’s characteristics found trouble. Once given the office Glass Slippers scooted through and showed just as much an affinity with fast Kentucky turf as she had Parisian bogs.
This first preceded an even more surprising example when Aidan O’Brien not only got his initial success in the Mile but he provided another of his characteristic 1-2-3 trifectas with Order Of Australia, Circus Maximus and Lope Y Fernandez. The bookmaker prices were big enough, but nowhere near as outlandish as the US tote which sent off Order Of Australia at 73-1. I know a friend of a friend who had the Trifecta and collected almost £1,200 for a 15p perm (90p total stake).
Boudot was also in the saddle here and again he was a Covid beneficiary as this time Christophe Soumillon would have ridden. The good fortune was even more amazing as if a 73-1 shot could ever happen – it hadn’t previously in the history of the race. Without the scratching of William Haggas’s One Master, Order Of Australia wouldn’t have made the field as his saddlecloth number 15 implied: he was first on the ‘Also Eligible’ list and was drafted in only by the Haggas mare’s absence. It also meant he had to start from the outside draw but after another virtuoso performance from France’s champion jockey he got first run on fast-finishing Circus Maximus.
The Mile was a strange race. While Circus Maximus is an established top-class performer and winner at the trip, Order Of Australia had run fourth to stablemate Santiago in the Irish Derby and opened his winning account also over the Classic distance in a maiden only two outings before Saturday. Third-placed Lope Y Fernandez’s last two runs before Keeneland were in Group 1 races at six furlongs!
There were more second places for the Ballydoyle team and late runs for them were the order of the day. That was true of Battleground’s excellent second in Friday’s Juvenile Turf on Friday. Magical ran with her usual courage in the Turf race to see off the two John Gosden hopes Lord North (fourth) and seventh-placed filly Mehdaayih as well as her own teammate Mogul (fifth). She was her usual admirable self but could not quite cope with the younger Tarnawa, a first Breeders’ Cup winner with his only runner at the meeting for Dermot Weld.
Tarnawa reappeared as late as August at Cork where she won a Group 3 fillies’ race with a strong finish. She added the Prix Vermeille the following month at Longchamp beating the highly-regarded French filly Raabihah before seeing off Alpine Star and Audarya in the Prix de l’Opera on Arc day.
On both those French ventures, Tarnawa was ridden by Soumillon but, with the Belgian maestro unavailable, Weld turned to the recently-crowned Irish champion, Colin Keane, who produced a ride worthy of his title to get her home in front of Magical. Missing out for the second time following her epic brave runner-up finish to Enable two years ago, Magical was denied getting past £5 million in total prizemoney from 12 wins and eight second places in 27 career runs. The £500k-odd she got for this latest silver medal brings her haul to £4.6 million but the pleasure she has given her owners and also the racing public can hardly be measured in those terms.
Talking of extravagant prizemoney, the three-year-old Authentic has only raced this year but Bob Baffert’s three-year-old has totted up five wins and two second places. These have been enough to edge him past Magical’s monetary haul by more than £25k with the three Grade 1 victories coming in the Haskell – he missed the truncated Belmont which was the first leg of this year’s topsy-turvy Triple Crown – the Kentucky Derby, and now Saturday’s Classic and its £2.3 million first prize.
He won with authority beating better-fancied stable-companion Improbable and, among others, the four-year-old Maximum Security, a disappointing fifth in the Gary and Mary West colours (in spite of having been acquired by Coolmore). It was Maximum Security who was disqualified after finishing first past the post in last year’s Kentucky Derby, the first horse ever to suffer that penalty.
Then early this year he travelled to Riyadh for the inaugural Saudi Cup, which he won, but the £7.5million first prize has still not been handed over as his then trainer Jason Servis has since been banned for multiple drug offences with a number of his horses. Maximum Security was moved to Baffert for whom he won the Pacific Classic at Del Mar in the summer before being beaten by Improbable in the Awesome Again at Santa Anita in September.
Baffert’s joy on Saturday, no doubt even more marked when he discovered Authentic broke two minutes for the ten furlongs, setting a track record, has to be taken in the context of his own troubled season. Three post-race tests have found banned substances present in two of his horses, including Gamine (twice) who was the runaway winner of Saturday’s Filly and Mare sprint. Both horses were disqualified.
Also apparently in line for disqualification is Justify, fortuitously perhaps not for any of his three Triple Crown victories in 2018, but for his test after the Santa Anita Derby which preceded the Classic trifecta. The ramifications of any disqualification are obvious. Ashford Stud’s advertising proudly calls Justify the only unbeaten Triple Crown winner ever. A different form of words might be needed if the disqualification goes ahead. Meanwhile, Coolmore Europe was able to celebrate another big triumph for their recently-acquired stallion Wootton Bassett, as the sire of Audarya.
Finally, congratulations to Joseph O’Brien whose Twilight Payment made all in last week’s Melbourne Cup holding off his father Aidan’s Tiger Moth. Here, sadly, there was a tragic end to a great career when the 2019 Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck had to be put down after going wrong two furlongs from home.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/BC_Mile_OrderOfAustralia_AidanOBrien123.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2020-11-09 09:09:092020-11-09 09:19:22Monday Musings: A Euro Garden Party on the Lawn
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