Read all sorts of commentaries and tips across a range of racing disciplines on the most popular horse racing blog in Britain, from staff and guest writers.

Monday Musings: Rediscovering the ‘Lost’ Champion Apprentice

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Six former champion apprentices lined up for the Bahrain International Trophy and its first prize of £250,000 over a mile and a quarter of Sakhir racecourse on Friday, writes Tony Stafford. The least well-known of them by a long chalk, Scottish-born Lee Newman, was the unlikely winner on a stable second string owned and trained locally by Bahrain national Fawzi Abdullah Nass on his first run in his new surroundings.

Riding with great enterprise on the ex-Mick Halford-trained Simsir, a four-year-old son of Zoffany, Newman sent his mount past the early runaway leader four furlongs out and stayed on well enough to hold off a host of fast, but too late, finishers. Frankie Dettori on the John Gosden-trained but locally-owned Global Giant just failed to get up but still had inches to spare over Ryan Moore on the Aidan O’Brien-trained Sovereign, last year’s Irish Derby winner, to secure second spot.

Nass also provided the fourth, Port Lyons, another ex-Irish performer. Since joining from now-retired Madelaine Tylicki, sister to Freddy, also a former champion apprentice, who was forced to retire after a fall at Kempton in October 2016 left him paralyzed from the waist down, Port Lyons had won four in a row and carried by far the major hopes for the home team.

Fawzi’s talent as a trainer has been best advertised over the years by his exploits with the sprinter Krypton Factor whose biggest win came in the Golden Shaheen in Dubai where he always sends a strong team every Carnival. Alan Spence’s home-bred Salute The Soldier won two races for Nass early this year and no doubt will be on parade again at Meydan in the 2021 Carnival.

I wish I could find a full resume of the why’s and wherefore’s of Lee Newman over the past eight years. I vaguely remember bits of it as in how he had serious trouble with his weight, something the other quintet of champion apprentice alumni in the field on Friday have not had to worry much about in their careers. More certain is that he suffered a bad neck injury when riding in Australia late in 2018 and is based there, but he has been a regular visitor to Bahrain, and finished third on another outsider, Rustang, 12 months ago in the same race.

Friday was not the only time that Newman had got the better of the two global champions. In 2000, the year of his title, he arrived like a comet, winning 87 races, stepping up on the 22 of 1999. In that regard he had a considerably higher tally in his championship than either of Friday’s immediate victims. Dettori won his junior accolade with 71 victories in 1989; Ryan Moore, who had his first Flat rides in 2000, won his title three years later with 52 wins. William Buick, 50 in 2008 when he shared the apprentice title with fellow Andrew Balding trainee David Probert, and another Balding graduate, Oisin Murphy, won with 76 in 2014, but still 11 fewer than Newman.

The final member of that exclusive club in Friday’s field, and the most recent recipient of the title was David Egan, who rode 52 winners in 2017 and weighed in with 50 in the latest Flat campaign when he benefited from his association with the Roger Varian stable. David Egan’s father John, who rode his first winner in 1984, is, at 52, two years older than Dettori who will be 50 next month. Egan senior was also in Friday’s line-up.

Weirdly, neither of Newman’s closest rivals on Friday could manage to beat his tally in 2000. Moore had six wins, his first on the Flat – his initial winner was in a selling hurdle at Towcester earlier that year – then none the following year before going on his journey to the top. Dettori, having won 22 races in 1988 – coincidentally the earliest year for the statistics readily available to me, always far exceeded 87 in the ten years from his title until the Millennium when his tally dipped to 47 as a result of his being injured in that plane crash at Newmarket where his friend and later agent Ray Cochrane dragged him from the wreckage.

So what went wrong for Lee? Starting in 1998, when he didn’t trouble the scorers, Newman rode in the UK during only eight seasons, 1998-2002, then 2010-12 so with two eight-year gaps. After his title he achieved double figures only twice more, 22 in the year following his title and 43 in the second year of his comeback. Otherwise his scores in the three barren years were five, three and seven. In all, apart from that landmark 2000, his grand total in the other seven years he rode in the UK was only 102, small beer when you consider Murphy had 144 wins in this truncated year and Buick 137.

For sure Newman must have had talent way beyond the average. Richard Hannon senior clearly thought so as did David Barron. Between them the two master trainers provided him with 60 of his 189 wins. What a waste, but in the warmth of Australia rather than in cold UK winters on the all-weather, he perhaps finds it easier to keep his weight in check.

In all, the Bahrain International attracted five multiple champions. Dettori, Moore and Silvestre de Sousa, who was ninth on the very disappointing Bangkok for Balding, each have three titles. The present title holder, Murphy, has won the last twice and Jamie Spencer also has two championships, the second in 2007 shared with Seb Sanders. Other notables in the line-up were winter champion on the all-weather, Ben Curtis, who easily outscored Murphy and Buick overall this year with 164 wins, and Hollie Doyle, whose 131 wins set a record for a female rider.

Only three female riders have won the apprentice title: Hayley Turner, who shared the honour in 2005 with Saleem Golam, himself retired this year and now a barber in Newmarket; Amy Ryan in 2012, and Josephine Gordon four years ago. Doyle, a late bloomer, has the talent and connections to challenge Murphy and Buick, as well as her partner Tom Marquand even more closely in the coming seasons. How the racing authorities and the media, and indeed large swathes of the racing public, will be hoping she achieves that unprecedented accolade one day soon.

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National Hunt racing continues to gather momentum and there will be many who love jumping at Kempton – me for one – frustrated that they will be unable to be there to see the smart Shishkin make his first steps as a chaser today. Like Altior, the latest brilliant two-mile champion chaser from the Nicky Henderson stable, this Supreme Novice Hurdle winner is being sent straight over fences rather than challenge for the Champion Hurdle next March.

There were plenty of reasons to think that Altior rather than stablemate Buveur D’Air should have won at least two Champion Hurdles as he had that horse well beaten off in third when they met in the Supreme. With the Henderson stable also housing the 2020 Champion, Epatante, who could easily repeat the dose next March, Henderson has a proven formula to follow. It is understandable that going in a beginners’ chase like today with four opponents would be less demanding than, say, a Fighting Fifth Hurdle. If he can cope – and his 1-6 forecast price suggests he will - with the four-year-old Mick Pastor, in the same McManus colours as Epatante, he should be on the way to the Festival once again.

There were a couple of nice performances yesterday at Navan when Minella Indo, beaten a length by Champ (Henderson/McManus) in the RSA Insurance Novice Chase at Cheltenham, cantered round under Rachael Blackmore to the sort of bloodless victory that the Shishkin connections will be craving  this afternoon.

Earlier, fair hurdler Blackbow showed sufficient promise first time over fences for Willie Mullins in a beginners’ chase over two miles and a furlong to suggest he might develop into a Cheltenham contender next spring. Ruby Walsh, who maintains his close connection with the Mullins stable, reckoned on Racing TV that he’ll be a far better chaser than hurdler.

There were some smart performances over here on Saturday, the highlight being Bristol De Mai’s third win in four years in the Betfair Chase at Haydock, putting him almost in the Kauto Star category. Paul Nicholls’ multi-champion won the race four times and but for twice being diverted to Northern Ireland for seasonal debut wins in the JNWine Chase at Down Royal, he could have had an almost-unimaginable six in the same Grade 1 race.

This latest triumph For Bristol De Mai was gained at the expense of Nicholls’ Clan Des Obeaux. It had the Twiston-Davies stable mentioning the Grand National next April and at ten years of age it is easy to imagine the grey soaring over the fences. Clan Des Obeaux will now attempt to repeat last year’s win in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day when his stable-companion Cyrname is the obvious one standing in his way.

One impressive Saturday winner who will not go for the King George is the Kim Bailey-trained Imperial Aura. The handicap he won at Cheltenham last March will no longer be run, but in-form Kim will aim him at the Ryanair Chase where his bold jumping front-runner will be a big threat to anything the Irish can produce.

The most remarkable success of the day was back at Haydock where the David Pipe stable sent out Main Fact for a ninth win in the calendar year. Bought out of the Dianne Sayer stable for only £6,000 in May 2018, the Juddmonte-bred, who won as a young horse in France for David Smaga, was then off the track for almost 18 months until last December. A close third after making the running on stable debut, that set him up for his first win early in January. Off 104 in a two-mile Warwick handicap he launched a quick-fire eight-day hat-trick. Then it was two more close together wins in early March, by six lengths off 123 and 15 lengths off 9lb higher, already revealing astonishing progress.

Lockdown halted the momentum and it wasn’t until late last month that Pipe brought him out for a Flat foray, which brought three wins at two miles in under a fortnight, starting off at 60. He will be on 78 when the turf resumes next March. Judged on Saturday’s events, that figure will be nowhere near enough to stop him.

For here he was, having never previously run over further than two and a half miles, the distance of his Uttoxeter win on March 14, trying three miles on heavy ground in a 17-runner Grade 3 handicap hurdle sponsored by Betfair. Turning for home another Main Fact win looked most unlikely as, off 147, 7lb claimer Fergus Gillard could be seen to be riding away vigorously miles behind the leaders. In the end, though, the gelding’s will to win came to the fore and he strode past the highly-talented Third Wind to make it nine-in-a-row. Where will it all end? One thing’s for sure, they haven’t forgotten how to enjoy such winning streaks down at Pond House!

Winter Webinar #4: The Tools One

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In this fourth and final Winter Gold series web broadcast, we look at the tools available to Gold subscribers. Specifically:

- The joy of a (good) Tracker, and how to use one properly
- Draw and Pace blue sky thinking
- Know thyself (and thy bets)
- Query Tool: where the really good stuff happens

If you like to arm yourself with nuggets of profit-pulling intel that other people don't have, watch this video and then set to work!

Matt

p.s. if you'd prefer to watch/listen slightly more quickly,  use the ⚙ icon in the bottom right of the video screen and change the 'Playback Speed'.

p.p.s. If you missed the previous sessions, you can watch them here (#1), here (#2) and here (#3).

Three Week Challenge Part 2: Shortlisting

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Welcome to part 2 - week 2 - of this Three Week "The Price is Wrong" Challenge.

By now you should be comfortable reducing the 35-50 daily races down to between one and five upon which to focus attention. That was the focus of Part 1, Race Selection: if you haven't taken that on board yet, I'd recommend you do. The details are below.

Then, in this second part, we'll review the maths behind why beating the market is the key to long-term success; and we'll then go into shortlisting techniques and examples. There's nothing scary, I promise, though some elements might need a little practice: that's why we do things a week at a time!

Catch Up

First, read this short introductory article.

Part 1, below, is about Race Selection: choosing your battles. Check that out here >

 

Part 2 - Shortlisting

And now we move the focus from the day's racing to individual races. Our next job is to whittle down a field of eight to ten runners to a handful of contenders. And that is the primary focus of today's video. Have a watch and then put these ideas to work for you.

HINT: If the video speed is a little slow for you (I do speak quite slowly), you can use the 'cog' icon in the bottom right of the video to change 'playback speed'. 1.5x might be an optimal combination of speed and comprehensibility, but you can figure what works best out for yourself!

Running Well Against a Pace Bias, Part 1

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As regular readers of Geegeez will know I have a particular interest with running styles / pace in a race, writes Dave Renham. I strongly believe it is an area that remains misunderstood by many and essentially dismissed as unimportant.

In this piece I am going to examine a way to use pace to find future betting opportunities, something I call ‘negative pace bias’. To that end, I have looked at big field races (15 or more runners) from UK flat racing in 2020. This includes all weather racing, although the vast majority have been on turf as four of the six UK all weather courses have field size limits of 14 or less. Races with larger fields were chosen simply because I thought it would be ­easier to spot a potential pace bias.

So how does one determine whether there has been a potential pace bias in a race or not? Before I attempt to answer that, please note the word ‘potential’: it is important to say that one can never be 100 per cent confident that there has actually been a pace bias in a race or not. However, I think it is possible to be reasonably sure in certain circumstances.

For example, if you are watching a race and the horses that dominate the race have all raced up with the pace from the start, then it can be assumed that there has been a pace bias towards more prominently ridden animals, and against hold up horses. A reverse pattern could emerge of course with the race finish fought out by hold-up horses with all those racing up with the pace fading out of contention. Even in those scenarios, this method is far from an exact science. What is when it comes to racing?

Also, naturally, I am writing this article retrospectively. However, I do use this angle with my own betting and some of the races highlighted are ones I noted at the time, certain horses from which I ended up following.

In order to be able to write this article I needed to go through all the qualifying races and see if either of the two pace bias angles occurred. The key idea from here was relatively simple and hopefully logical. Once a race had been found where there seems to have been a pace bias, I looked for any horse who seemed to have run well ‘against’ this bias. More about these horses shortly.

In terms of finding the races I used the race comments in the Geegeez results section. From there I then watched the race video online to ensure the race panned out as the comments had indicated. [You don’t necessarily have to do this, but I personally like to see the bias for real as it were].

Normally I would expect to find one horse that may stand out given the circumstances outlined above, occasionally there maybe be more, but rarely will there be more than two; after all, if there was, then there probably wasn’t a strong enough edge in the race.

To summarise, we are looking for horses that have probably run much better than their finishing position may have initially indicated. Once finding a horse in my research that fitted the criteria, I reviewed how it ran in the races that followed. The hope or even expectation of course was to a see a ‘win’ in the finishing position column soon afterwards; and the sooner the better. After all we are trying to find a method that produces future winners that we will bet on.

Back briefly to the ‘now’ as it were. If you find such an ‘eyecatcher’ horse, as punters we have the difficult decision regarding how long we go on backing it in the future. Do we back it ‘blind’ in the next race? If we do and it loses, do we back it a second time, a third, a fourth, etc until it wins? Because we need to realise that it might not win within the next three or four races, it might not even win again within the next ten or twenty. Do we instead back it any time it runs in the next 4-6 weeks? Do we look at future races on a case by case basis digging deeper before making a final decision whether this is the right time to back it?

Deciding upon the right approach is essentially impossible and is all down to individual preference. I guess the ‘results’ from this article may help shape a method – should you decide there is sufficient mileage in what follows. For the record, I personally make decisions on a race by race basis and each horse will remain on my ‘pace horses to follow list’ for three or four runs maximum. If and when a horse wins it is invariably removed from my list.

At this point it is worth mentioning that when I am testing new ideas for the first time, like this one, I am very systematic to begin with. This is because a rules-based approach is much quicker when all I want to do is to get a ‘feel’ for whether an idea shows merit. During any testing phase I check results in two ways. Firstly I focus simply on the next run to see if they would have returned a profit, and secondly I look at the next three runs but will STOP AT A WINNER (should there be one). This is a variant of the method Nick Mordin used in his iconic book ‘Winning Without Thinking’ where he used the next three runs regardless on various ‘systems’.

Now I won’t be able to examine every race in 2020 that ‘showed’ a pace bias along with its aftermath, otherwise the article would become more like a thesis! However, there is still be plenty here to get our teeth into. The following are in chronological order the first ten ‘pace biased’ races I found, in the hope that they offer a variety of future outcomes. There is a lot to look at so what follows are the first five of those ten races.

RACE 1 - 7th February 2020 – 4:35 Chelmsford

As you can see below this was a 15 runner class 6 handicap over 1 mile. Looking closely at the race comments, you will see that the first four finishers raced up with the pace, as did the fifth despite an awkward start. Horses 6th all the way down to 15th raced midfield or at the back. To me this race showed a very strong bias to horses that raced near the front.

Two horses catch my eye. Bird To Love who finished 6th and Zayriyan who finished 7th. These were the best of the midfield/held up runners with only a head separating the pair at the line. Both were around three lengths behind the winner. The 8th placed horse, Irish Times, was a further 2 lengths back and it makes sense to me to ignore that one.

Before discussing what happened next, this was not a race I noted at the time. I’m giving a bit away here by saying I’m wishing I had.

Both Bird To Love and Zayriyan raced again just under three weeks later. Amazingly they reappeared in the same race, again at Chelmsford, but this time over a quarter mile further. The result is shown below:

Not only did they fill 1st and 2nd in their very next race, but there are two other things that also stand out. Firstly, look at the distance they beat the third by, over five lengths. Secondly look at the prices: if you had backed both at SP you would have made a 24-point profit. The straight forecast paid over 293/1, while the exacta returned a mouth-watering 514/1.

Of course, amazing outcomes like this are rare, very rare; and I’m gutted I missed it at the time. I doubt I would have been brave enough to have backed the 1-2, but I am fairly certain I would have backed both horses individually.

Before getting carried away, though, this type of result occurs extremely rarely; it just happens to be the first ‘qualifying’ race I found in 2020.

RACE 2 - 16th June – 4:40 Ascot

Royal Ascot often has big fields and this 19-runner race seemed to show a relatively strong held up pace bias. Four of the first five home and six of the first eight came from off the pace. The first eight horses with their comments are showed below:

Summer Moon did clear best of the prominent racers, hanging on for 3rd, so from a pace perspective he was arguably the horse to take out of the race. Land Of Oz was the next best of the ‘pace’ horses, finishing over five lengths further back in 6th. It still looks a decent enough effort considering it was a long distance slog, but Land Of Oz has not raced since. It will be interesting to see how he performs when he returns to the track.

Let’s now look at Summer Moon’s record including this race and subsequent ones:

As we can see next time out he ran a shocker at Sandown although to be fair he had gone up in class to a Group 3. Back in handicap company he came 8th next time, beaten five lengths, before winning at York at the rewarding odds of 18/1. For the record, this horse did appear on my radar after the Ascot run, but after his Sandown flop I unwisely crossed him off my list of horses to follow: a frustrating outcome for me considering he won within three races at such good odds.

RACE 3 - 17th June – 2:25 Ascot

The following day another Royal Ascot race again showed what seemed like a hold up bias:

Although the winner raced close to the pace, as did the 5th, they were the only two from the first 11 runners home that did. The remaining nine came from off the pace. Horses that win despite a bias are still horses to be interested in. Now, of course, if they won a handicap they are going to go up in the weights, which potentially makes winning more difficult in the near future. However, they still should be of interest as we know horses in form can run up winning sequences, and we also know – or believe – that the horse overcame a pace bias to win. In this case, the winner Hukum stepped up to a Group 3 next time at Newbury (15th Aug) and continued the winning thread at odds of 4/1.

Arthurian Fable, the horse who finished 5th, went on to win a handicap two races later as shown:

All in all, this Ascot race worked out extremely well from a negative pace bias perspective.

 

RACE 4 - 18th June – 2:25 Ascot

The Britannia, a mile handicap at Ascot for 3yos only, is the next race I found. Big field handicaps over Ascot’s straight mile traditionally tend to favour horses from off the pace and even more so on softer ground. The Pace Analyser shows how the strong the hold-up bias has been since 2009 on soft/heavy ground in 1m handicaps (albeit from a small sample):

This race was no exception and conformed to the hold-up pattern. The winner won extremely impressively having been way off the pace early, but both Finest Sound (2nd) and Overwrite (6th) appeared to be ‘negative pace’ horses to note the race. The first seven home and their race comments are shown below:

Let’s look at the subsequent runs of Finest Sound and Overwrite. First Finest Sound:

To date just two more runs; a decent third next time out at Newmarket before a poor run at York. Meanwhile, Overwrite returned to the track 10 days later at Windsor winning a class 2 handicap:

The price of 11/5 was perhaps a bit disappointing given he was 40/1 when 6th at Ascot, but this race again highlights that following horses that have run against a pace bias have the potential to win soon afterwards.

RACE 5 - 20th June – 4:10 Ascot

One of the big handicap sprints of the year, the Wokingham, provides the next example:

Five of the first seven finishers raced from off the pace which seems a common theme at the Royal meeting regardless of distance. Hey Jonesy however, made all the running to win which not only looks a fine effort in the context of this specific contest, but when looking back through the history of the race it becomes clear that leading from start to finish in the Wokingham is nigh on impossible: in the last 30 renewals of this big field cavalry charge (going back to 1991) no horse has previously led from start to finish. The closest was Selhurstpark Flyer back in 1998, who led the centre group that day but was not the overall leader until hitting the final furlong. Hence this seems an even better performance than it originally looks. However, all that glisters is not gold, and Hey Jonesy has been well beaten three times since his big day in June, as we can see:

In many ways, that’s a good outcome because it reminds us that all approaches are fallible, and that sensible staking and managing our expectations are pivotal mental attributes even when deploying a solid strategy.

Back to the Wokingham, and Stone Of Destiny, who finished 6th, is another horse that caught my eye having raced prominently. He was beaten less than two and half lengths. Although he was well beaten in his next two runs he then came 2nd before prevailing at 16/1 in another marquee event, the Portland Handicap at Doncaster.

The question all of us should be asking at this point is would we have followed Stone Of Destiny until this Doncaster run? It is back to that quandary again, being down to individual preference with no right or wrong answer. Here are two of the possible ways it could have gone:

  1. Stone Of Destiny having run two poor looking races in a row in his next two runs is discarded after race 2;
  2. After doing some post-race analysis you notice that six furlongs may be a bit of a stretch for this horse. Let me elaborate on the reasoning you may have used to reach this conclusion. In the actual race he was 2nd with just over half a furlong to go before fading slightly into 6th. That meant he had won just once in 12 attempts at the six-furlong distance with the sole win being on debut in a novice event. Overall, his five-furlong record was better with two wins from nine including a class 2 handicap win at Ascot in the summer of 2019. It looks that although potentially effective at 6f, those last 100 yards, especially on a stiff track like Ascot, are a few steps too far. Hence it would be likely that you would upgrade his Wokingham run for not only running well against a pace bias, but also potentially battling his own distance bias, too.

It is almost certain therefore you would have backed him at Ascot next time over 5f (11th July), a day on which he reared at the start which severely compromised his chance. Most people would immediately forgive that run if they’d seen it. His second subsequent run was at Goodwood in the Stewards’ Cup back over 6f (1st August). This is a much easier 6f so you may have backed him again hoping he would just get the trip, or you may have swerved.

He again ran well for about five furlongs before fading badly in the final eighth of a mile. Once again he had credible excuses. His 3rd run after the Wokingham was at Sandown back over 5f. This would probably have looked a great opportunity and indeed he ran very well, finishing 2nd.

So although three races in, Stone Of Destiny would still look like he is knocking at the door. You therefore decide to back him again next time dependent on conditions. The race as stated earlier was the Portland at Doncaster and although it says the distance is 6f on his race record (see above), it is actually 5f 140 yards. This equates to just over 5½ furlongs, though nearer six than five. You feel he is certainly worth a chance at this interim distance. He goes on to win as we know at 16/1. Happy days!

Both of those two scenarios could have emerged and I wouldn’t argue against anyone who chose either route. There are of course many other ways this could have played out and a good number of those I’m sure would have been logical as well.

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So there we have it. Five races in and I have another five races to share and analyse in the second half.

All in all there have been some very positive signs for this method to date, albeit from an extremely small sample of races. Will the next five work as well? Honestly, I think it is highly unlikely that they will, and I certainly cannot envisage a similar outcome to the first race I looked at. But you never know. Let’s hope that we don’t draw a blank with the next five finding no future winners at all!

Also next time, I’ll show you how I researched this, and how you can find your own negative pace biases using the Geegeez toolkit.

- DR

 

Monday Musings: There’s No Doubting Thomas

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Success in any area of endeavour depends firstly on talent, writes Tony Stafford. But then again there have been very many gifted people who didn’t have the resolution or determination to project that natural ability into the ultimate result. Above all, even given those important requirements, you still need a little luck.

Take Sam Thomas. When he started out as a jockey in the early 2000’s his first two seasons yielded no wins from three rides in 2001/2 and one from 24 the following winter. Then came the fortuitous connection with Venetia Williams and an instant upsurge. The next three campaigns brought 47 and 55 twice, a momentum that only accelerated further when Paul Nicholls took notice of his qualities.

In 2006/7 73 wins from 462 rides took his winners’ prizemoney to more than £750k, in great part thanks to Kauto Star’s Betfair Chase score at Haydock Park. The next year, now firmly established as Denman’s rider, Thomas had 88 wins from a career-high 563 rides and an almost doubled figure of earnings at a sliver under £1.5 million. He went close to maintaining that level with 78 in the following season but, from that point, the peak had passed.

So, like Covid-19 in the summer, down went the numbers. Twenty-seven, a slight rally to 36 and then 30 told the tale over the next three years, but 10 from 201 mounts and then three from 65 in 2013/4 signalled the end. Sam had been in the company of two of the country’s most accomplished trainers and ridden some great horses so the wish to have a shot at the conditioning side of the business was understandable.

He clearly had talent and certainly the good fortune to ally himself where he had done for the ten years of the middle and most productive part of his 15-year riding career.

Now came the difficult part. All the expense and organisation that go with setting up stables were the obvious obstacles to overcome. But by the 2015/6 season as he quietly, rather anonymously, finished riding, he had gathered together a team of horses. Eleven of them got to the track, but none of their collective 30 runs yielded that elusive first win. The next year, a quartet of successes came from 59 appearances and 16 active horses. The steady increase followed with 79 runs and seven wins from 28 individuals in 2017/8 and Sam must have been delighted when Dai Walters, initially often with partners, sent a number of horses to him for the following campaign.

From little acorns they say, great oaks can grow but it would have been understandable if the owner of Ffos Las racecourse had thought again when those eight horses appeared a collective 16 times for no wins. Therefore, it might have been a great relief for Sam when, in his second season training for the businessman, eight Walters horses won two races from 23 runs.

The figure may well have been improved had the latest jumps season not ended abruptly in mid-March with his score on six. By that time the Horses In Training annual had already been published. Sam Thomas, from his base near Cardiff, had 38 horses listed, 15 with the Walters Plant Hire name affixed. One or two of these remained in partnership but this was clearly a case of Dai’s putting most of his ownership eggs in an upwardly-mobile Welsh-based basket.

Thirteen of the Walters horses have run so far this season and, until recently, progress was steady rather than spectacular. But this month the transformation has been astonishing: since November 5th, that’s 11 racing days, Sam Thomas has had nine runners, eight in the dark blue and white of his principal owner. Six have won, five of them for Dai, one more finished second and a further two were third; the biggest losing margin was just one and a half lengths.

It’s never a guarantee that one major owner can propel a trainer into the top division, although not just trainers but jockeys, as the saying goes, can’t go without the horse; and so many capable people in the sport are never destined to hit the heights as the chance of getting a good animal is so remote.

In those 11 days Sam Thomas has won with bumper horses, hurdlers and chasers. The biggest win was yesterday’s Cheltenham Listed bumper success with Good Risk At All, a son of No Risk At All – bet it took a while to think of that one, Dai? Like the Thomas training career, Good Risk At All has been a slow burner. Bought at Arqana three years ago he didn’t make the track until last month when he finished second at Newton Abbot. Despite going up in grade at Cheltenham he saw off a recent Oliver Sherwood Fontwell winner with a good display of stamina on the heavy ground.

Thomas, with nine wins from 33 runners, is already well past his previous best score of seven, but the brilliant form of his horses makes him the most strikingly in-form trainer around.

The rapidity with which the ground at our top jumping tracks can go from good to heavy after rain is going to be a cause for concern among trainers who have good-ground horses in their care. For much of last winter, indeed until a few days before Cheltenham’s ill-starred Festival, abandonments and/or heavy ground were the order of the day for months with barely an oasis of good going to be found. Looking out of the window recently it seems we might be having more of the same.

Cheltenham’s three-day November fixture started on good to soft on Friday but by yesterday the ground had become as near to heavy as makes no difference when times and the class of horses on show were considered. There were, as ever, fine performances on all three days with Put The Kettle On yesterday showing once again that she has the talent to beat the boys at close to the highest class when winning the Shloer Chase. Henry de Bromhead’s mare’s task was made easier of course with the defection of Harry Whittington’s much-fancied Rouge Vif, the trainer having previously stated that he’d try to avoid deep winter turf with the polished top of the ground performer.

On The Blind Side was regarded as a potential Gold Cup horse as he went impressively through his novice hurdle season but the Nicky Henderson inmate did not take to chasing. Returned to hurdles and in pretty strong company too on Saturday, he showed he retains all his courage and a fair portion of his ability by staying on strongly to win a competitive three-mile handicap.

On The Blind Side won only one of his seven chases but a characteristically sharp bit of race planning by Henderson took the gelding to Newcastle for a jumpers’ bumper three weeks before Cheltenham. He won it and then missed the Festival which in retrospect looks like a good decision. Saturday was his first appearance since and had he never run over fences, his career record would have been six wins from eight starts, all bar his point-to-point debut in Alan Spence’s year-round-successful colours.

Gordon Elliott has been dominating the juvenile hurdles in Ireland and won two with Duffle Coat, at 16-1 on debut having never raced anywhere beforehand, and then at 1-6 with his penalty. Leaving his lesser lights to continue to mop up at home, Elliott sent Duffle Coat recently to Wetherby for a Listed race where he outstayed and outclassed some capable home-trained previous winners and on Saturday employed that stamina again to give weight away all round impressively in the JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial, in receipt of an outstanding waiting ride from Robbie ‘Puppy’ Power. It’s a bit early to be talking of the Triumph Hurdle itself but it will take a good one to wrest him off the top spot.

Two more impressive performances had come on Friday when Kim Bailey’s Does He Know (Grade 2 Ballymore Novice Hurdle), and the Skeltons’ Protektorat in a small-field but high-class novice chase, also gave notice that there is plenty more to expect from them in their respective divisions.

*

I was saddened on Sunday evening to learn of the death of Des O’Connor, the all-round entertainer and all-encompassing nice bloke at the age of 88. I met him only once, when I was sent by the Press Association to Ludlow – my first visit there, or was it Hereford: why did I chuck away those old form books? I had to go into the winner’s enclosure to interview him after his horse Bermondsey – unplaced earlier in his career in the Derby - won a novice hurdle. I can clearly picture him sporting a black leather coat, not exactly jumping garb in the age of tweeds. He was one of the old-style performers who could do everything quite well and never minded being ridiculed on his guest TV appearances by such as Morecambe and Wise. Goodbye Des and I’m delighted that racing gave you so much pleasure. I can certainly vouch for one enjoyable day all those years ago when he seemed totally unaffected by his fame.

- TS

Three Week Challenge Part 1: Race Selection

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Are you up for a challenge? Nothing too terrifying, just a little wagering self-improvement. That's the aim, at least, of this Three Week Challenge.

For more information on what it's all about, read this short introductory article.

Part 1, below, is about Race Selection: choosing your battles.

Parts 2 - Shortlisting - and 3 - Bet Selection - will follow on other days soon.

But, for now, have a watch of the video below and take up the challenge. Good luck!

Matt

Winter Webinars #2 and #3: Racecards and Reports

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For the past few weeks, I've been broadcasting live on a Wednesday evening around the subjects of better betting and Geegeez Gold.

In the first 'Winter Gold' show, I talked about setting up to succeed, and you can watch that here.

The second broadcast focused on Gold's racecards, and showcased a range of tips and tricks for putting them to optimal use for you.

And the most recent, recorded live this week, homed in on getting the best out of the report suite, and particularly Report Angles.

Webinars 2 (Racecards) and 3 (Reports) can be viewed below.

“The Price Is Wrong” – Three Part Challenge

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As we're in varying states of liberty constraint at the moment, for entirely good and important reasons of course, I thought it might be fun - and perhaps helpful/interesting - to set up a three part challenge over the course of the next few weeks.

The aim of this challenge is primarily to improve decision making. Better decisions mean a more refined approach to wagering, and a greater focus on the right puzzles. That will subsequently equate to more fun and more profit (or less loss, depending on where you are now).

Importantly, I wanted this challenge to be accessible to all, regardless of whether you're currently a Gold subscriber or not; and I wanted it to help users understand how to get more from the toolkit we offer, again regardless of being a Gold user or not.

In point of fact, I've no idea how this will play out, as it's a first try. But the approach should have merit, and I hope will be enjoyable as well as instructive. So here's what I'm thinking...

I've called it, "The Price Is Right Wrong", and the fundamental aim of the challenge is to try to help you to identify horses that will go off at shorter prices than you can back them earlier in the day. This is 'value', and it is the core objective of every winning bettor.

Just mull that in the ol' grey matter for a minute, because it's important. The core objective of winning bettors is NOT to back loads of winners. Not necessarily, at least.

Rather, it is to trust the implicit efficiency of starting price betting markets, and to aim to beat those odds lines. The most accurate barometer of the outcome of a race is the starting price (exchange starting price, in truth, but ISP is closing that gap since racing went behind closed doors). Therefore, if we as punters can consistently take a better price than starting price, we will win over time. We WILL win over time. It is incontrovertible.

OK, so we're going to be trying to consistently beat SP. In other words, we're going to be looking for horses where "the price is wrong".

If you're still with me, then, as the late great Leslie Crowther used so wonderfully to implore his excited studio audience, come on down!

A Challenge in Three Parts

The Challenge will be in three parts and, as with betting itself, this is not intended as a direct battle between competitors. Instead, the aim is as a catalyst for self-improvement. In a fun, engaging kind of way.

The three parts can be days, weeks, or as long as it takes. For the purpose of this we'll work it over three weeks, this being week one, but there's no end date so take as long as you need!

The three parts are as follows:

Part 1: Race Selection

Choosing the right races means giving ourselves the best chance of finding an edge. Race selection is at the bottom of the pyramid of edges and, if appropriate thought is given at this stage, prospects at every turn further up are amplified. But which are the right races? This depends on what and who you know, or - in the case of this challenge - what data you have at your disposal. Things to consider might be:

- Not too many (or too few) runners
- Plenty of form on offer (which usually means older horse handicaps)
- Those with a 'setup' bias (draw, pace, ground, etc)

Part 2: Shortlisting

Having identified a few of the right races, or just one - again, time will determine that - the second job is to separate contenders from pretenders. There is little point in betting all (or nearly all) runners, and nor necessarily should we only bet a single horse in a race. Such decisions are informed by the shortlisting process. Again, there is no right or wrong way of doing this - different strokes for different folks and all that - but in the context of this challenge, we'll home in on one or more of:

- Instant Expert
- Pace (and draw for AW races)
- Trainer form
- Hot Form
- Ratings analysis
- Form profiling

How many of these you cover will depend on your available time, level of experience, and appetite for tinkering. But introducing any of them (which are new to you), as opposed to none of them, will almost certainly improve your punting acuity.

Part 3: Bet Selection

There are plenty of outstanding form book judges who are hopeless punters. Why? Because they choose the wrong bet types, or they over - or under - stake, or they are insufficiently price sensitive, or they don't have enough accounts (by choice rather than as a result of closures/restrictions). In this part, the focus is on optimising our smart judgement in parts one and two by making the right plays. These could range from simple to more complex:

- Taking the best price available
- Availing of Best Odds Guaranteed where possible
- Considering extra places versus the place fraction returns
- Win bet vs each way vs 20/80 vs place bet
- Without favourite markets
- Dutching
- Laying
- BOG optimization via multiples

Come on down!

So, let's do this. The most important thing at this stage is to avoid overwhelm. The above might seem like a lot: that's why we're doing it in stages! And how many, if any, of the elements you personally engage with will depend on your time, experience and interest constraints. But know that the very act of committing to this sort of an exercise already marks you out as an above average bettor. But I want more for you than that!

Click here to get started with Part 1: Race Selection, and get ready to start spotting the odds that will come on down!

Monday Musings: A Euro Garden Party on the Lawn

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Last week I concluded my offering with a suggestion that nowadays “fewer and fewer Europeans make the trip over to the Breeders’ Cup”, a statement gently modified by the Editor who said simply that this was not the case, writes Tony Stafford. In the event 31 horses represented four European nations – the French sent only two to Keeneland, Kentucky on Friday and Saturday, and the Germans one. Fifteen came from Ireland and between them they collected two winners, nine places up to fifth, and four unplaced.

The UK had ten runners and provided one winner, but it was the newly- and fiercely-independent nation of North Yorkshire which had the best proportional return from its three raiders with a win, a third and one unplaced. It wasn‘t the usual suspects either. There was no sight of a Mark Johnston, Richard Fahey, Tim Easterby or David O’Meara challenger. Instead, it was left to Nigel Tinkler and the two Irish-born imports Kevin Ryan and John Quinn to fly the flag for Malton and nearby Hambleton where Ryan trains with such success particularly with his sprinters.

The caricature of the Yorkshireman, perhaps best exemplified by Mick Easterby or even Geoffrey Boycott, is of a bluff, self-made man who likes what he likes and knows more than you. When it comes to training they certainly know their stuff. It was only a few years ago that the North in general couldn’t attract owners. Now there’s no such built-in inferiority complex.

The first three Yorkshire-based trainers mentioned – Johnston, Fahey and Tim Easterby – all train upwards of 200 horses, while O’Meara has well past 100 in his care. Ryan also handles more than 100, but the versatile Quinn operates on a smaller scale. Tinkler has run 67 horses this year – non-runner in Horses in Training! - for 28 domestic wins, and he has done extremely well with the progressive two-year-old Ubettabelieveit. In Friday’s Juvenile Turf Sprint , the Kodiac colt finished only a staying-on length and three-quarters behind the Wesley Ward flying machine Golden Pal.

To put that in perspective he was a similar distance in front of fourth-home Lipizzaner, the first of the Aidan O’Brien team which in general ran very much to form.

The UK runners could be put in three geographical training regions. Newmarket provided six; three from John Gosden and one each from James Fanshawe, Michael Bell and Roger Varian. Fanshawe in a 30-year training career had never previously ventured to the Breeders’ Cup, but he chose the right horse and indeed the perfect race. His three-year-old filly Audarya took the Filly and Mare Turf with a strong finish and a masterful ride by Pierre-Charles Boudot, standing in for Covid-19 side-lined Ioritz Mendizabal who’d ridden her in two previous runs in France, including when third to Tarnawa in the Prix de l’Opera on Arc Day.

Lambourn and environs, including the Hampshire borders, provided four runners. Andrew Balding sent 2,000 Guineas winner Kameko but he faded on the rail after looking a possible winner in the Mile; Ralph Beckett had two unplaced runners in the Juvenile Turf while Archie Watson and Hollie Doyle’s venture in the Juvenile Turf Sprint was destined for disappointment when Mighty Gurkha missed the break and finished 11th.

If Ubettabelievit exceeded expectations, that’s nothing to what Kevin Ryan needed to overcome in the Turf Sprint. Glass Slippers had already won and then finished runner-up in the Prix de l’Abbaye, so she had strong form credentials, but no European horse had ever previously won this race.  As the trainer explained, Glass Slippers always runs best in the second half of the season. As a juvenile, she won for the first time on August 16 third time out. It needed five runs last year as she clicked into gear on August 4 before going on to beat So Perfect by three lengths in a soft-ground Abbaye.

This year she started by twice taking on Battaash at Ascot and Goodwood, finishing fifth and then second to the Charlie Hills speedster. It was not until September 13 in this truncated season that she won again. Ryan took her to the Curragh for the Group 1 Flying Five and she collected the £113,000 prize which also provided a free ticket to the Breeders’ Cup.

Next came the second venture at Longchamp and this time, on officially heavy ground, she beat all bar Wooded, who prevailed by a neck under Pierre-Charles interestingly with two John Quinn sprinters just behind in third and fifth. Tom Eaves was in the saddle that day as he has been in all bar one of her 17 starts which have produced seven wins. After Saturday’s race, Eaves, who had 26 UK victories in the past season at barely five per cent, paid tribute to Ryan and the filly’s connections for staying loyal as this was his first visit to ride in the US and also to Ryan Moore for advising him on how to ride the track.

Any amount of advice couldn’t have produced a more instinctive and opportunistic seizing of the opportunity to find a gap while others more versed with Kenneland’s characteristics found trouble. Once given the office Glass Slippers scooted through and showed just as much an affinity with fast Kentucky turf as she had Parisian bogs.

This first preceded an even more surprising example when Aidan O’Brien not only got his initial success in the Mile but he provided another of his characteristic 1-2-3 trifectas with Order Of Australia, Circus Maximus and Lope Y Fernandez. The bookmaker prices were big enough, but nowhere near as outlandish as the US tote which sent off Order Of Australia at 73-1. I know a friend of a friend who had the Trifecta and collected almost £1,200 for a 15p perm (90p total stake).

Boudot was also in the saddle here and again he was a Covid beneficiary as this time Christophe Soumillon would have ridden. The good fortune was even more amazing as if a 73-1 shot could ever happen – it hadn’t previously in the history of the race. Without the scratching of William Haggas’s One Master, Order Of Australia wouldn’t have made the field as his saddlecloth number 15 implied: he was first on the ‘Also Eligible’ list and was drafted in only by the Haggas mare’s absence. It also meant he had to start from the outside draw but after another virtuoso performance from France’s champion jockey he got first run on fast-finishing Circus Maximus.

The Mile was a strange race. While Circus Maximus is an established top-class performer and winner at the trip, Order Of Australia had run fourth to stablemate Santiago in the Irish Derby and opened his winning account also over the Classic distance in a maiden only two outings before Saturday. Third-placed Lope Y Fernandez’s last two runs before Keeneland were in Group 1 races at six furlongs!

There were more second places for the Ballydoyle team and late runs for them were the order of the day. That was true of Battleground’s excellent second in Friday’s Juvenile Turf on Friday. Magical ran with her usual courage in the Turf race to see off the two John Gosden hopes Lord North (fourth) and seventh-placed filly Mehdaayih as well as her own teammate Mogul (fifth). She was her usual admirable self but could not quite cope with the younger Tarnawa, a first Breeders’ Cup winner with his only runner at the meeting for Dermot Weld.

Tarnawa reappeared as late as August at Cork where she won a Group 3 fillies’ race with a strong finish. She added the Prix Vermeille the following month at Longchamp beating the highly-regarded French filly Raabihah before seeing off Alpine Star and Audarya in the Prix de l’Opera on Arc day.

On both those French ventures, Tarnawa was ridden by Soumillon but, with the Belgian maestro unavailable, Weld turned to the recently-crowned Irish champion, Colin Keane, who produced a ride worthy of his title to get her home in front of Magical. Missing out for the second time following her epic brave runner-up finish to Enable two years ago, Magical was denied getting past £5 million in total prizemoney from 12 wins and eight second places in 27 career runs. The £500k-odd she got for this latest silver medal brings her haul to £4.6 million but the pleasure she has given her owners and also the racing public can hardly be measured in those terms.

Talking of extravagant prizemoney, the three-year-old Authentic has only raced this year but Bob Baffert’s three-year-old has totted up five wins and two second places. These have been enough to edge him past Magical’s monetary haul by more than £25k with the three Grade 1 victories coming in the Haskell – he missed the truncated Belmont which was the first leg of this year’s topsy-turvy Triple Crown – the Kentucky Derby, and now Saturday’s Classic and its £2.3 million first prize.

He won with authority beating better-fancied stable-companion Improbable and, among others, the four-year-old Maximum Security, a disappointing fifth in the Gary and Mary West colours (in spite of having been acquired by Coolmore). It was Maximum Security who was disqualified after finishing first past the post in last year’s Kentucky Derby, the first horse ever to suffer that penalty.

Then early this year he travelled to Riyadh for the inaugural Saudi Cup, which he won, but the £7.5million first prize has still not been handed over as his then trainer Jason Servis has since been banned for multiple drug offences with a number of his horses. Maximum Security was moved to Baffert for whom he won the Pacific Classic at Del Mar in the summer before being beaten by Improbable in the Awesome Again at Santa Anita in September.

Baffert’s joy on Saturday, no doubt even more marked when he discovered Authentic broke two minutes for the ten furlongs, setting a track record, has to be taken in the context of his own troubled season. Three post-race tests have found banned substances present in two of his horses, including Gamine (twice) who was the runaway winner of Saturday’s Filly and Mare sprint. Both horses were disqualified.

Also apparently in line for disqualification is Justify, fortuitously perhaps not for any of his three Triple Crown victories in 2018, but for his test after the Santa Anita Derby which preceded the Classic trifecta. The ramifications of any disqualification are obvious. Ashford Stud’s advertising proudly calls Justify the only unbeaten Triple Crown winner ever. A different form of words might be needed if the disqualification goes ahead. Meanwhile, Coolmore Europe was able to celebrate another big triumph for their recently-acquired stallion Wootton Bassett, as the sire of Audarya.

Finally, congratulations to Joseph O’Brien whose Twilight Payment made all in last week’s Melbourne Cup holding off his father Aidan’s Tiger Moth. Here, sadly, there was a tragic end to a great career when the 2019 Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck had to be put down after going wrong two furlongs from home.

November Handicap 2020 Preview: Kingbrook Could Take Advantage Of Early Burn Up

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After a break from the race previews last week to write about hot form it’s time to delve back into the competitive race previews – this time with the November Handicap.

This is a race I’ve always had a bit of a fondness for, partly due to some decent success around a decade ago but I’ve admittedly found it tougher in recent years, perhaps because the ground has been pretty desperate more often than not.

It's been a rare drying week in the lead up to this year’s renewal so hopefully the ground won’t be too testing and the 2020 flat turf season can finish without the need to race on farcical ground.

Draw

This is perhaps the most surprising element of the race. Despite going round the bend low draws have seemed strongly disadvantaged in testing conditions over this course and distance.

In the past eleven years there have been thirteen 12f handicaps run on ground ranging from good to soft down to heavy and the lowest third of the draw has not only failed to provide a winner, those stalls also offer less than half of the placed finishers compared to middle and high draws. The PRB is also significantly lower.

Comparing the middle and high draws, middle draws have been better from a win perspective but thirteen races isn’t the best sample size to show an advantage for winners. The place data is almost identical and the PRB data is identical so there seems nothing in it.

It could be that the higher drawn middle numbers have been padding out the middle draw data so let’s take a closer look at the individual stall data.

This draw data shows that not all middle stalls and high stalls are created equal as the overview data might have suggested. Three of the four best PRB figures have been recorded by the three highest stalls.

These stalls do have the least amount of data due to the fact that we are looking at the actual stall they effectively came out of rather than the stall they were allocated in the racecard. For every lower drawn non runner each runner will break from a stall one closer to the rail. However it does seem significant that all three of the highest stalls have performed so well in terms of PRB.

It's not all bleak for the lower numbers. Stalls 2, 8 and 9 are joint third best for place percentage so we certainly shouldn’t just expect those drawn in double figures to fill all the places.

There does seem an advantage with the wider draws though. Looking at the nine stalls with the best PRB figures, eight of them are stall 12 or higher. Seven of the eight worst PRB figures come from stall 10 or lower.

Pace

We saw at Doncaster a couple of weeks ago, admittedly on extremely testing ground, that it was difficult to come from off the pace over most distances. There were no twenty-three runner races on those cards though so there is every chance this race could work out differently. To get a stronger idea of any pace bias we’ll need to look at similar big field races.

Using the same going filters as we used for the draw data, we see that prominent racers have won more often than any other type of run style, although hold up horses have fared almost as well.

As far as the place data is concerned, and this is going to be more enlightening with a sample size of this nature, mid division comes out as the best run style in front of prominent and then hold up. It’s clearly difficult to dominate from the front in a field of this size and nature with front runners having the poorest record by some distance although the Each Way PL is most profitable for front runners despite just two places and no wins -  a sign they are underestimated by the bookies.

Depending on which data you look at you could argue any kind of run style is most advantageous so it seems as though every runner should have a fair chance, although the safest option seems to be to back those likely to race in mid division.

How this race is run could have the biggest bearing on what early position is best so let’s take a look at the pace map.

It looks almost certain we’ll see contested speed in this race with Raymond Tusk, Dash Of Spice, Bollin Joan, Glencadam Glory, Hiroshima, Torcello, Beechwood Jude and Euchen Glen all more than comfortable leading. Euchen Glen is tactically versatile and has been running in smaller field, group races recently so perhaps a bit more restraint will be used here but that still leaves no less than seven possible pace angles!

This race could be a real test at the trip with those coming from nearer the rear likely to be seen to best effect. A bit of extra stamina over further probably wouldn’t be a bad thing either, especially with the ground likely to be quite tacky.

Draw and Pace Combination

We’ve already established that a high draw seems to be an advantage here but is there also a pace bias related to that draw?

The answer is no. Those drawn high seem to have an equal chance of running well whatever their run style. The data above does suggest that coming from mid division with a high draw is a disadvantage but given there seems to be little to no change between hold up and prominent it seems unlikely there is a much bigger disadvantage being placed between those positions. A quirk of a fairly small sample size perhaps.

If you are drawn low you are almost certainly going to be seen to best effect if avoiding either front running duties or a hold up style whilst those drawn in the middle have a fair chance however they are ridden but again, being either prominent or mid division is probably advantageous to those runners.

Age

A big thing is always made of the age of a horse when looking at big handicap trends but does it really make much difference, especially with only 3yos carrying a different weight for age (5lb advantage)?

In the past five renewals of this race there have been winners aged 3, 4, 5 and 7 so a fairly even spread. Arguably 4yos have faired best as they are the only age group to have a better place percentage (55%) compared to their representation in those fields (40%). The 3yos have also performed okay with a 10% place strike rate having made up 11% of the runners during that period. The older brigade, 6yos and 7yos were slightly further below par and 5yos performed least well with a 15% place strike rate compared to 25% representation.

It’s a small sample but it stands to reason that the younger, less exposed runners are likely to include the best handicapped runners.

The Odds

It's the end of the season and many of these runners have had a tough season so it would be easy to suggest this is a race that’s likely to have an upset. Plenty of big prices tend to reach the frame in this race but it’s worth noting that the last six winners of this race started at 10/1 or less.

The Runners

Sam Cooke

He looks to have been saved for this since his close 2nd at Ascot in late July but given he had previously missed 14 months of action it’s entirely possible that connections simply haven’t been able to get him to the track since then. The 4yo has had just six runs to date so there should be more improvement to come and he won his sole start on soft ground at this distance comfortably, albeit off a 10lb lower mark.

He may have been difficult to train but he’s never run a bad race when getting to the racecourse and a 3lbs rise for being beaten a nose last time out seems fair, for all that form hasn’t worked out well. Given he would have preferred softer ground on that occasion it’s probably fair to mark him up as the best horse in that race.

You couldn’t confidently say he’s well enough handicapped to win a race like this given he’s never really beaten much but conditions seem ideal, he’s lightly raced, his trainer is in excellent form and he is very favourably drawn in stall 20.

Euchen Glen

The 7yo has taken his form to a new level this season after missing two years of racing before a return this season. He’s taken his racing well this season having had nine starts in less than five months and he’s won three of his last four including the Old Borough Cup over two furlongs further and two Group 3s over this distance. All those wins came in very testing conditions.

His Old Borough Cup win came off a 8lb lower mark (form hasn’t really worked out) and on his latest win he beat a horse now rated 101 by 1.75 lengths giving that runner 3lbs so whilst his mark is fair, it’s hardly generous.

He was well beaten in this as a 4yo but he’s a different horse now. He’s entitled to go well if he is ridden a bit more patiently than he has been on recent starts and he is well drawn in 18 but he’s surely not the best handicapped runner in this field.

Kingbrook

One of six 3yos in the field and completely unexposed at this distance having had just one start over further than 10f. That run came last time out when winning the Old Rowley Cup, usually one of the hottest handicaps of the season, by half a length on soft ground.

There are early signs that race is working out okay and there is certainly plenty of strength going through his previous form. On his penultimate start he was a staying on 3rd over two furlongs shorter behind Ilaraab who won again next time out.

Trainer Ian Williams saddled the 3rd in the latest renewal of this race and the winner the year before. Kingbrook will once again be ridden by Richard Kingscote, who gave him an excellent ride last time out. He's up 6lbs for his latest win but there should still be more to come and it’s interesting that he’s not only well proven on soft ground but he also has form on plenty of different types of going. This can be an asset when going through tacky, holding ground. Very well drawn in 22.

On To Victory

Consistent on the flat this season, in the first three on all three starts. Placing has never been his issue, he’s been 2nd or 3rd on his last five completed starts, but he is winless since 2017.

His form is solid, if unspectacular, and he’s only 1lb higher than when 2nd at Ascot on his last start at this distance. He is arguably better over further, which might not be a bad thing if this race is run at a very strong gallop but the winless run is a concern.

Stall 13 is okay and there are no issues with the ground so he should run well but he doesn’t appeal strongly for win purposes.

Surrey Pride

A generally progressive 3yo who was well fancied last time out over shorter, failing to get home in very testing ground. He has previously finished almost 8 lengths behind Kingbrook at Newmarket and on that form he has work to do now just 7lbs better off.

He's the lowest drawn of those near the head of the market and not only does stall 6 look a likely disadvantage, he’s also going to be dropped out in the rear from that draw which is proven to be a bad tactic from a low draw. This could be tough for him for all he still may have wiggle room off his mark.

Dash Of Spice

Hasn’t been in the same form as 2018 this term having missed two years of racing before a reappearance in July of this year. After dropping 11lbs, 5lbs below his last winning mark, he put in his best performance of the season last time out when seen to best effect from the front over course and distance finishing 2nd to Tulip Fields who reopposes here.

Low drawn front runners tend to be disadvantaged in this and he’s going to face plenty of competition for the lead. The 4lb pull with Tulip Fields seems unlikely to be enough to reverse the form and it’s a surprise he’s the shorter price of the pair with many bookies.

Eagle Court

David O’Meara’s 3yo has seemingly improved for the step up in trip to 10f on his last two starts, winning both. Those two wins have come in soft ground, they’ve worked out pretty well (beat subsequent winners in both) and he’s won both more cosily than the winning distance suggests.

The 8lbs he’s gone up for winning those two contests is probably less of a concern than the step up in trip, especially as he was racing over a mile just three runs ago.

The excellent Profiler tool on Geegeez Gold shows that Free Eagle’s sire’s offspring perform much better in handicaps over 10f compared to 12f. In fact Eagle Court would be a first handicap winner over this trip for Free Eagle should he emerge victorious here. He’s well drawn in 21 but is going to have his stamina severely tested here and he’s probably one for the tracker for his next run back at 10f.

Strawberry Rock

A difficult runner to figure out with just four career starts. He was impressive at Ripon on his penultimate start when beating Bollin Joan (reopposes here) by 4 lengths on good to soft ground. Bollin Joan did go on to win two starts later so it clearly wasn’t a bad contest.

He wasn’t as good off an 8lb higher mark next time out in a class 2 handicap over a couple of extra furlongs at York on softer ground when 5th, beaten over 8 lengths. He was beaten before stamina came into play that day and it’s difficult to tell if the new mark caught him out or if he was just below par.

His draw in 11 is probably just about okay but the percentage call has to be to oppose him. Market support may be significant though.

Torcello

A 6yo with a decent strike rate on the flat of six wins from sixteen runs. He handles very testing ground well but he’s on a career high mark and faces plenty of competition for front running duties. All his wins have been in much smaller fields and it would be a surprise if he was good enough to even place in this.

Tulip Fields

Won well here a couple of starts back and wasn’t badly hit by the handicapper, only going up 4lbs for winning by 2 lengths. There is a suspicion that race rather fell apart though with several runners not performing on the very testing ground.

She wasn’t disgraced next time out in listed company at Lingfield, perhaps not quite getting home over an extra furlong, but didn’t do a lot to suggest she’d up to winning a race this competitive. She won’t be far off the pace, for all she’s unlikely to lead, and a place would be a decent effort.

Rhythmic Intent

The only one at a bigger price to catch my eye. It wouldn’t be a crazy assumption to think he hasn’t quite got home on very testing ground on his last two runs at 14f. If you were able to ignore those runs he suddenly becomes very interesting. His last run at this distance was a 4th in a six runner race, which on the face of it doesn’t seem great but he was only beaten 2.75 lengths and the 2nd and 3rd both came out and won easily next time.

He’s only 4lbs higher than when winning by 3 lengths earlier this season and he’s generally been consistent when faced with middle distances and softer ground. In fact his form figures at 10f or 12f on soft ground read 21314.

His draw in stall 10 isn’t perfect but 25/1 with as many as 7 places on offer for each way purposes underestimates his chances here. He was after all sent off near favourite for the Old Borough Handicap a few runs ago.

Verdict

Rythmic Intent is pretty interesting but ideally he’d have been drawn higher and he does have to bounce back from a poor run last time, even if there were excuses. Eagle Court is a big threat from a great draw if he stays but there is evidence to suggest this trip will stretch him. Meanwhile Euchen Glen appears a solid choice and he’s perhaps still improving at the age of 7 but for win purposes he’s passed over. On To Victory is a horse that will interest plenty of each way punters but he appeals more as a place only bet than anything else.

The two most interesting runners should be Sam Cooke and Kingbrook who are unfortunately both well found in the betting. Sam Cooke has a lovely profile for this but he still seemingly hasn’t done it against well handicapped rivals. That’s not his fault, he just seemingly hasn’t bumped into them yet, but for a horse trading at around 6/1 you’d probably want to be a bit more sure about his handicap mark.

Kingbrook isn’t yet proven off a mark in the mid nineties but the manner of his victory last time in what is usually a very hot race suggests he could yet rate higher. He seemed to relish the step up in trip and the handicapper hasn’t had a proper chance to catch up with him over this distance. Everything else appears to be in his favour and with just three runs under his belt this season he comes here a very fresh horse. With one bookies going 7/1 and 7 places on each way bets that appears a very good bet for all the likely very tacky ground is a potential fly in the ointment.

As it's the final big handicap of the flat season I'll throw a speculative tricast out there:

1. Kingbrook
2. Sam Cooke
3. On To Victory

Breeders’ Cup 2020: Video Preview, Picks

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It's the Breeders' Cup this weekend, and in this preview video I've nailed my colours to the mast across all 14 races.

Hit play and listen in - good luck!

Breeders’ Cup 2020: Trends, Stats, Pace, Replays, Odds

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>> Download the Breeders' Cup Compendium FREE here <<

This year's Compendium is free to everyone, and contains:

 - Race trends for all 14 races
- Pace projections for all 14 races
- 'How the runners fit' form profiles for all 14 races
- Trends contenders for all 14 races
- Odds comparison - UK to US morning line - for all 14 races
- Form summaries for 10 races (excluding the two turf sprints, the Dirt Mile, and the FM Turf)

Grab your copy from the link below:

>>> Download the Breeders' Cup Compendium FREE here <<<

Monday Musings: Wishing to be elsewhere…

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I’m getting onto my travel agent (actually I don’t have one any more as I’ve been nowhere for ages) this morning, writes Tony Stafford. I’ll be trying to find the best (and obviously cheapest) way of getting to my new favourite place, Mata’utu, capital of the little-known Wallis and Fortuna Islands.

You didn’t know it was a country? Nor did I till yesterday when hard on the latest lockdown news, I thought it was time to rekindle my spring and summer obsession with Covid-19 and the statistics thereof.

When, two months ago, August in the UK ended with two deaths and September began with three, we all knew that racing’s apparently idiotic continuation with strict separation of limited-allowed owners from their trainers and jockeys had been way over the top. As I’ve said before, I’ve not gone racing since Cheltenham, but why couldn’t you talk in close company to trainers and jockeys when you could meet them in the pub freely before or after the races?

Now we learn that it was precisely because of how draconian it had all seemed that racing now can continue. The situation with owners has yet to be determined but if we don’t want the rest of society to get the hump, maybe it’s best to give that concession. Well done BHA.

Where so recently there were two and three fatalities, two months on it was 274 and 326, a neat average of 300 which is what it has been for the past five alarming days. Pubs, bars and restaurants will be packed until Wednesday and on Saturday the first sightings of the re-emerging toilet-roll hoarders supplanted the usual non-stop flow of trick-or-treaters on Hallowe’en. When I didn’t hear the one knock by would-be recipients of the goodies Mrs S as usual dutifully provided, we were treated with a raw egg thrown on the newly-cleaned front kitchen window for our pains! Messy to clean eggs are [as Yoda might say].

I thought it would be timely, now total cases in the UK have topped the million, so 14,000 per million of population, which is the ninth highest globally, to return to the subject. Deaths have risen above 46,000, fifth behind the US, France, Russia and Mexico.

Propping up the entire table at 218th – although a couple of cruise liners are included – is the above-mentioned Wallis and Fortuna Islands, which between them have recorded one case, the victim of which has happily recovered.

The islands are in the South Pacific, in between such better-known tourist spots as Fiji, Tonga and Samoa, rugby nations whose influence on the game far exceeds the size of their population. Fiji has a team over in Europe at the moment. With only 34 recorded cases in the country it must have been a shock for the tour management to discover that “between five and seven” of their squad due to play an international in Paris with France next week have contracted the virus, so the match is off. Lesson for South Sea islanders: stay home!

I love statistics. With only one now recovered case, Wallis and Gromit – sorry Fortuna – are listed on that same Worldmeters league table as having 90 cases per million of population. I’d be willing to take my chance, as long as they tell me which of the 15,289 souls from the latest census it was that copped it. Maybe he should be required to wear a badge? Not that they are a total island paradise. Even-handed Wikipedia reports that the “main health risks are mosquitos and sunburn, while drunk driving and intoxicated locals can also be a problem”. Thinking twice now, what with my skin cancer!

**

It would be tragic if racing stopped again not least because it would deny us another sighting of Saturday’s marvellous Charlie Hall Chase winner Cyrname, who put together the complete three-mile performance when cantering home a couple of lengths ahead of the doughty Vinndication.

Sometimes apparent ease can be deceptive but surely not here as Harry Cobden always looked to be in first gear all the way round two circuits of Wetherby as the rest of them huffed and puffed behind front-running Aye Right. Cobden kept Cyrname wide, possibly giving lip-service to the fact the country’s highest-rated chaser hadn’t previously won going left-handed. As the 1966 World Cup commentator Kenneth Wolstenholme would have said: “He has now!”

Stamina didn’t look a problem around a galloping track and the fences, never the easiest, were treated like the most welcoming of hurdles as he soared over them in perfect union with his jockey. Paul Nicholls ought never again to have to justify Cyrname’s being rated 4lb higher than Altior, and all of a sudden the great recent domination of Irish stables in the staying chaser ranks might well be getting properly challenged. Certainly even if he wasn’t able to stretch himself to three and a quarter miles around Cheltenham in March – and how do they bet whether we can go to see it or not? – Kempton’s King George looks a Christmas gift for Cyrname.

Meanwhile here we are at the start of November and within the next six days we will have got the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday and two days of the Breeders’ Cup in Keeneland, Lexington, Kentucky, out of the way. In other words, all the worthwhile Flat racing of 2020 will have been and gone.

The O’Briens, father and elder son are back down under again, Aidan yet to win it, with 2019 Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck who heads the weights for the 24-runner two-mile handicap, and Tiger Moth, second in the Irish Derby this year and then an easy Group 3 winner thereafter. Joseph, who has won it before, also has two chances with proven stayers Master Of Reality and Twilight Payment.

Anthony Van Dyck will have his supporters after his recent close second to Verry Elleegant in the Caulfield Cup, for which the winner has incurred a 1lb penalty. Considering the first prize was £1,666,667 and the runner-up got £476,190, you could say that was hardly harsh treatment. Incidentally, Prince Of Arran, Charlie Fellows’ regular challenger for Australia’s biggest race, third and then second the last two years, got £114,000 for his fourth in the Caulfield Cup.

Verry Elleegant is some handicapper. This year the five-year-old mare, trained by Chris Waller, has gone to the races nine times, five before the actual end of the season in the Australian autumn. Her two best efforts before the break also earned her big money, each time running second behind William Haggas’s Addeybb and Tom Marquand as they picked up £1million plus prizes each time, at the start of his memorable year, while racing was in its lockdown phase back home.

After Verry Elleegant’s break, four more runs have followed bringing three wins including the Caulfield Cup.  All in Group 1 races, she started with a win over 7f, was then fourth over a mile, before further victories at 10f and a mile and a half. The three wins all came in photo-finishes. There must be a big chance that her toughness will be rewarded by victory in the biggest race of them all for Australians, and it comes at a time when Melbourne, so badly affected by Covid-19 earlier in the year, is celebrating as there have been no new cases anywhere in Australia on Friday and Saturday.

Presumably only insiders will be there rather than the six-figures that usually flock to Flemington  but the magic of getting up at all hours tomorrow morning to see John Berry give his usual virtuoso performance, not just on the big race, but all the supporting contests on the day, is an annual treat I don’t intend missing.

So the main tip is going to be Verry Elleegant and it will be a proper Aussie fairy story if she can do it. It’s always good though to see European trainers taking on the locals by using their training methods.

For years I’ve noticed more than a few horses run just before the big race. In the case of the Andreas Wohler four-year-old Ashrun, a son of Authorized – purchase authorized by Tony Nerses, of course! – he has run twice in the last fortnight, finishing a solid fourth to Steel Prince and ex-Hughie Morrison inmate, Le Don De Vie, in the Geelong Cup (Group 3) before as recently as Saturday coming home on top in another Group 3 at Flemington.

Unlike the brilliant home-trained mare and Anthony Van Dyck, Ashrun has no stamina worries for lasting out the two miles. In August he ran in the 1m7f Prix Kergorlay at Deauville and was a very good second, staying all the way to the line, behind Call The Wind. He gets 2lb extra for his win the other day, but again it will be a lovely story if the local pro-forma works for an invader.

Over the years, it seems, fewer Europeans attempt the costly trip across to the US to challenge for the Breeders’ Cup races and nowadays the dirt has become almost a total no-go. With five juvenile contests on Friday, the likeliest win for the invaders might be the Ballydoyle runner, Battleground, who has been reserved for the Juvenile Turf.

Royal Ascot winner Campanelle will be all the rage for Wesley Ward in either the Juvenile Turf Sprint, where she might meet Lippizanner for Aidan and the team, or the possibly easier-looking Juvenile Fillies’ Turf in which the Roger Varian-trained Nazuna might also be dangerous.

Three of the Saturday races that stick out as possible obvious chances for the travellers are the Mile, the Filly and Mare Turf, and the Turf. They could give us (yes it’s still ‘us’ even if we can’t be there!) three wins. In the F & M T Cayenne Pepper, Peaceful (my pick), and recent rivals Tarnawa and Audarya are a likely team for exotic wagering. In the Mile it’s One Master, Circus Maximus, 2,000 Guineas winner Kameko, and Irish 2,000 hero Siskin for the same bet. O’Brien (AP) and Gosden will line up with two runners each for the Turf, but this time it looks a straight match between Lord North (Gosden) and Aidan’s Magical. It has to be Magical for me and how I wish she could have had another shot at Addeybb after her luckless run at Ascot.

- TS

How To Back More Winners – The Complete Guide To Hot Form

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In March I wrote an article ‘How To Bet On 3yo Handicaps’ where I shared my process of applying the principles of ‘Hot Form’ to find well handicapped runners from the classic generation.

At this year’s Doncaster St Leger meeting I wrote daily articles analysing races from a hot form perspective (with a decent level of success) and there were a few requests to expand upon the principle of hot form so here it is.

Hot form is the first thing I look at in any race I’m analysing and it’s responsible for 100% of the runners in my tracker. There are many other important factors I’ll look at before deciding upon a bet in any race but I’m not interested in backing anything that doesn’t have a level of hot form and this is a strategy that has served me very well for the best part of two decades.

What Constitutes Hot Form?

Hot form can be summarised as any race where several runners have subsequently improved their previous finishing positions. So if the 2nd, 3rd and 4th come out of a race and win next time out, that is very hot form.

Wins are the strongest barometer of success but if the 6th, 7th and 8th have all come out and finished 2nd since that could also be described as pretty hot form.

I prefer to mainly concentrate on handicaps when it comes to hot form because the form seems more transferrable from one race to another but hot form can definitely be applied to Group and Listed contests as well as maidens and novices.

Hot form is found in both flat and jumps racing. I prefer to concentrate on flat racing as handicappers over the jumps tend to be more exposed than many of their flat counterparts but I will often use hot form principles when looking at some jumps races too (staying handicaps are my preference).

Why Is Following Hot Form Profitable?

It is not uncommon for several well handicapped runners to participate in the same race. When this happens the best handicapped horse in conditions should win, but that’s not to say the horses that finish slightly down the field, perhaps in 5th and 6th, aren't still well enough handicapped to win an ordinary race.

If two or three runners emerge from a race and all win next time out it stands to reason that other runners who finished in close proximity to those subsequent winners in the original race are also well enough handicapped to win similar contests next time out.

By following hot form throughout the season you should be capable of finding somewhere between 100-200 well handicapped runners. That’s not to say you’ll find 100-200 future winners though. It’s the nature of horse racing that some of these runners will pick up injuries, lose their form, be sold abroad, etc. Others will simply never run quite as well as they did in the hot race you found and some will be campaigned poorly over the wrong trips, on the wrong ground or at the wrong courses.

However many of those 100-200 runners should be capable of reproducing their form again when conditions are in their favour and they’ll win on either their next starts or shortly after.

What About ‘Cold Form’?

Where there is hot form there must be cold form. Some races are very good, some are quite average and many are quite poor. Those poorer races where those that come out of the race struggle to win or even place in their next few runs could certainly be described as cold form.

These colder races can be useful as they’ll often help make the market in many races. A runner that has finished 2nd in a cold race will often be a shorter price than a runner that finished 5th in a hot race. Now that’s a huge generalisation but the bookies definitely seem to put more emphasis on finishing position and proximity to the winner than they do the actual strength of each race. On many occasions a horse will achieve more by finishing 5th in a hot race than 2nd in a cold race.

There is one important note about cold races though. A horse shouldn’t necessarily be disregarded for winning a cold race. If those behind the winner have let the form down it’s certainly not a positive but it’s also not the winner’s fault that those in behind weren’t up to scratch. If the winner was all out to win by a nose then perhaps you can group it with those behind but if the winning distance was even a cosy length the winner may have been a fair bit better than the rest of the field.

How Do I Find Hot Form?

There are two ways to go about finding hot form.

The first is to go through every result and look for races that are beginning to work out. If races are beginning to work out then you can bookmark them. If there have already been a couple of winners from the race you can add other runners who finished close up into your tracker. If a race is working out poorly then it can be disregarded.

Going through every race can be quite painstaking and the much easier method is to use the Geegeez Hot Form Report. You can find any runner with an entry over the next two days (today and tomorrow) that has run in a race with hot form (you set the criteria/filters for hot form). You can search from races 30 days in the past, 45 days in the past, 60 days in the past or 90 days in the past.

My personal preference is to cast the net as wide as possible and then use personal judgement as to whether or not a race is working out rather relying completely on data. This is because the raw data can sometimes be misleading. For example you might see a race where there have seemingly been three winners from three runs. That would initially look very interesting but it might be the case that a horse that won the race by 5 lengths has since followed up with three more wins. Those subsequent exploits aren’t really of any relevance to the rest of the field.

My preferred filters for the Hot Form report would be along the lines of:

Runs – Any – You want to find hot form as early as possible before you’ve missed the boat.
Wins – Any – The next lowest setting is 5 if there have already been 5 winners you’ve missed the boat.
Places – Any – Similar reasoning to the above.
Win Percentage – Min. 20%, Max. 100%. Runners who were well beaten can run poorly again and skew this percentage so don’t set the minimum too high.
Place Percentage - Min. 25%, Max. 100%. Similar reasoning to the above but you can set this one a little higher.
Win PL – Min. Any, Max. Any. It’s worth referencing this in the report but play it safe and leave it as any. The other filters should do the heavy lifting here.
EW PL - Min. Any, Max. Any. Similar reasoning to the above.

You will be presented with plenty of races that are NOT hot form but using these filters should also mean you don’t miss out on some races that are hot form that may have been missed with more prejudicial filters.

If you sort your results by Win Percentage you are likely to find the majority of the most interesting races at the top of the list (races with a minimum of two runs are preferable). However you should remember that each runner’s finishing position (denoted by the ‘Result’ field) in each race is arguably as important as anything else you’ll see in the report. If something has finished 12th in a hot race it’s almost certainly too far back to be of any relevance.  How far you should go back can vary from race to race (and is addressed below) but generally you won’t be looking any lower than 6th or 7th and you will most commonly be interested in top 3 or 4 finishes.

Check each well placed runner in a potential hot race by clicking on the Hot Race Date and then click on the Result tab. Ensure ‘Future Form’ in the top left corner of the result page is switched on so you can easily consume the subsequent exploits of each runner. You are looking for good subsequent runs from those that ran well in the race.

The Hot Form report on the day this article is being written can be seen below.

Hot Form Report example

The top horse looks very interesting on the basis of the a 100% subsequent win record from 3 runs. A closer look at the form also looks interesting with the first three places all going on to win next time out, for all only the first two runners won handicaps.

Hot form in action

As it turns out Rueben James was well beaten but the theory remains sound and you certainly don’t expect all of the runners to win.

The Most Important Hot Form Considerations

Hot form is not simply a case of judging races based on the finishing positions of subsequent runners from each race. The finishing positions are very important but you have to be able to judge the relative worth of those finishing positions.

Ground

It's unlikely every runner will come out and run on exactly the same ground. If encountering different ground conditions some will improve for this change and others will perform less well. If the ground is different on the subsequent run take a look at the horse’s previous form to judge if the change in going would have suited or not.

A mudlark that came 4th on fast ground and then wins next time in heavy ground won’t necessarily have franked the form. Likewise a mudlark that finishes 2nd in soft ground then 6th on faster ground next time hasn’t necessarily let the form down. In fact in this latter scenario, if the rest of the race is working out, these runners can be great value next time when returned to more favourable conditions.

Distance

You may look at a mile handicap where the winner and the 3rd have since won and you think it is hot form. However if the winner came out and won over ten furlongs and the 3rd subsequently won over twelve furlongs that doesn’t mean this is hot mile form – or cold mile form for that matter.

If the majority of the subsequent winners have won over the same distance then you can draw stronger conclusions about the form being hot.

Race Type

If runners have come out of a race and won or run well always check the type of race they have run in. It’s particularly the case with 3yo handicaps that a runner might drop into maiden company after a decent run in a handicap. An 80 rated horse winning a maiden at 10/11 probably won’t be much of a form boost.

Likewise an 80 rated filly chasing some black type in an Oaks Trial may not be letting the form down by only finishing 5th or 6th.

Class

Not quite as strong a consideration as the race type but class is also important. A runner that was 2nd in a class 4 handicap might only be able to finish 7th in a class 2 handicap but that doesn’t mean they should be disregarded when back down in grade where they’d be more capable of running to their original form.

Course Bias

This is an often overlooked factor but Geegeez readers should know the importance of course biases, namely pace and draw. If a horse comes out of a race and finishes down the field next time out when held up from stall 11 at Chester, or running against any other pace bias, that’s not a sign that the form has been let down.

Use the same marking up and marking down system you would ordinarily use when looking at form when you look back at results and future form.

Distance Beaten

When looking at the subsequent exploits of runners from any given race it’s always worth thinking about how far they have been beaten if they haven’t been victorious since. If something has finished 4th since, but only been beaten half a length, it hasn’t necessarily franked the form but that’s not a bad run at all and shouldn’t be judged too harshly, especially if others are giving the form a strong look.

Luck

Another thing that should be checked is the in running comments from subsequent runs. Some defeats can be pretty much marked up into victories if the horse was particularly unlucky next time out. Alternatively a 5th place finish might have been value for 2nd. It’s another factor that should be investigated.

So Conditions Are Key!

The closer conditions are in subsequent runs compared to the original race, the more reliable the form will be. Where there have been variations in the conditions you’ll have to use your judgement as to whether to mark the form up or down or to put a question mark over it. This is why it makes sense to keep the filters pretty broad in the Hot Form Report. Not all wins (or other finishing positions) are created equal.

How Many Runners Should I Track From A Hot Race?

There is no given formula for this and it depends on several factors.

The simplest explanation is you should follow as many runners from a hot race that have finished in relatively close proximity, or deserved to finish in close proximity, to a runner that has gone close to winning since.

The stronger the race, the more horses you’ll follow from it. If it’s a big field contest that is working out really well you might end up following six, seven or even eight runners from it. If the 2nd, 7th and 8th all win on their next starts you’ll know that at the very least the winner, the 3rd, the 4th, the 5th and the 6th should be of interest in the future. If the 9th was only a head behind the 8th that should be of interest too.

If the first three home have pulled clear in an eight runner field and the 2nd and 3rd have won since but the 4th has run badly then that’s a good sign that the winner is the only one worth following going forward.

What I like to do when I have found what seems to be a hot race is break it up into smaller races. If there was a gap of a couple of lengths between the 4th and the 5th then those are treated as different races and something that finished close to the 5th will need to have won, or gone very close since, for that to be of interest.

When judging these finishing positions in the hot race I am of course considering all the factors listed just above this section (course bias, luck, etc) and marking runners up and down. In many cases you may decide a horse that finished say 6th is worth following but the 5th might not be.

Should I Back Runners That Have Already Won Since?

What we are looking for with hot form is horses that are well handicapped AND are likely to be underestimated by the bookies next time out – therefore offering a value bet with a good chance of winning.

If you have found a race that has worked out well there is always a question mark over whether you follow those who have already won. If something has come out and won by five lengths then the chances are it will be hammered by the handicapper and the opportunity to back it off that sort of mark has gone. If something comes out and win by a neck, perhaps not getting the run of the race, then it may only be punished with a raise of about 2lbs and should still be of interest if a decent enough price next time.

The more a race has worked out, and the stronger it seems to be, the more you’ll probably still want to be with those that have won since, price permitting of course. If the 1st and 3rd have since rated around a stone higher and the 2nd is only 4lbs higher after a win then the likelihood is it’s still pretty well handicapped.

How Long Does It Take For Hot Form To Develop?

Around two weeks after any given race you should find that maybe two runners have run since and given some initial clues as to how strong the form is. Then over the next couple of weeks you should find a few more runners have runs since and by that point you should have a very strong indication of the strength of the form.

There is always a chance of missing the boat, noticing the hot form when it’s all too late and all the runners of interest have already come out and won. As previously mentioned, just because they have already won it doesn’t mean they are of zero interest going forward, but you have already missed one opportunity to successfully back them.

If there are more positive signs than negative signs that a race is working out, for example if the winner and 5th have won since but the 2nd has run poorly, then it’s time to start getting involved. Then the more winners that come out of a race whilst you are following the form, the more confident you can be on your bets going forward. If you’ve already won by backing the 3rd and the 4th, you are going to be pretty keen on the 2nd when it next runs assuming it hasn’t already come out and won itself.

Don’t Get Carried Away With Limited Data

If you have caught a potentially hot race very early, possibly the first horse to come out of a race has already won, you may be tempted to assume lots of others who finished close up are going to also come out and win, or at least run very well.

You do get plenty of ‘false positives’ though. Any horse can improve from race to race and go from running okay in one race to very well in another race. It is always best to wait for at least two runs from a race before you begin to draw conclusions or you may get your fingers burned more often than not.

If you find a race where one horse has come out and won the best strategy is generally to bookmark it and check it regularly. Check the entries of the horses that ran well in the race and when the next horse runs watch the race and be ready to add several other runners to your tracker should it win and confirm the race as hot form.

Continue To Monitor The Form

If you aren’t quite sure if a race is hot form or not, continue to keep an eye on the race. Perhaps there have been two good runs and two bad runs from it, there is no harm in watching how the next couple of runners fare.

It is not completely uncommon for a race to initially just look okay and then start to work out much better. Equally just because a race is beginning to look hot, it isn’t guaranteed to stay that way after a couple more runs.

Don’t be afraid to change your mind about a race. If you are becoming lukewarm towards a race you thought was hot you can reduce your stakes next time a runner comes out of it and then review it again.

Value In Hot Form

One of the main reasons following hot form tends to work so well is you are often aware of something the bookies may have overlooked, or simply don’t think as is important as it is.

Horses that have been previously beaten in handicaps don’t have as sexy a profile as last time out winners, especially those coming from maidens or novices that are completely unproven from their handicap marks. As a result we often get great value on these hot form runners and we can be more confident they will run their races than those making their handicap debuts, or those who have run well in races that are working out less well.

Keeping The Faith

Those horses that you earmark as well handicapped but who fluff their lines on their next starts can often be the runners who offer the best value going forward. There are many reasons why a well handicapped horse might not run to form next time, be it the ground, they could get worked up beforehand, they could pick up a knock or they could just have an off day.

Not all horses that should win because of hot form do actually win but a decent proportion of them won’t win on their next starts but will win shortly after. Keeping the faith in these runs and giving them at least a couple of chances when faced with optimum conditions is important. If a horse fails to run to the same standard without any obvious excuses more than once then it might be time to give up on them.

Hot Form And Race Class

One thing to look out for when deciding which horses to track from a hot race is those that have run pretty well but are capable of dropping a class or two. If you have a class 2 race that is hot form and one of those that ran well in that race drops into a class 4 next time out then this usually offers a great chance for them to get their head in front. They are less likely to bump into anything with similar scope down in grade.

Filling Your Tracker

With all the horses you come across in the search for hot form you should be adding them to your tracker. Add notes about what race was hot, where they finished, if they should be marked up from that run and how hot the form is. You’ll end up deleting some of them off your tracker as your views on each race develop but it’s best to be aware of them when they are entered.

My Favourite Hot Form Race From This Season

The great thing about hot form is the most unlikely races can work out really well. This was the case with a 7f class 5 handicap run at Yarmouth on June 3rd, shortly after racing resumed following lockdown.

Very hot form at Yarmouth

This race certainly caught the bookies napping. I’ve added green ticks to the future form screenshot of this race to make the wins easier to spot but that shows eight subsequent wins from twenty-seven subsequent starts from the top seven finishers (26.9% strike rate). The odds of those wins, which is quite remarkable, were:

16/1
7/1
7/1
7/1
3/1
11/2
2/1
16/5

A £10 stake on each of those subsequent runs would have cost £270 and returned £587. That’s an ROI of 117.4% and those prices are at SP. Some of those were available at much bigger prices ahead of their wins.

A Final Note

Hot form is a great way of finding runners that should be successful in the near future and you can add lots of future winners to your tracker. When they are entered they should simply be a starting point in your analysis of any race and this is by no means a short cut or a guarantee of winners. You'll still need to check the relative form of each of the other runners as well as working out the make up of the race and which runners are likely to be seen to best effect. If the runner you have pinpointed has conditions to suit and the price is reasonable it will hopefully be a good bet!

Check out the Geegeez Hot Form Report here

Winter Webinar #1: Setting Up To Succeed

/in /by

On Wednesday evening, I went live (gulp) for the first of four webinars covering betting on horse racing, and doing it with Geegeez Gold.

In this initial broadcast, the general subject was 'setting up to succeed'. It's a subject that most losers overlook, and no winners overlook!

As one wag (I hope he was joking!) said in the comments, I've a face made for radio - and this is largely a 'talking head' production - but I think/hope there will be some useful takeaways.

Referenced were:

- The art of the possible
- Limitations: Time and Overwhelm
- Odds and the Market
- Discipline
- Staking and Value

Matt

p.s. beneath the video box is an image referred to in the staking section, which is useful when working out bank size.

 

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