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Stroke Of Luc Required In The 2020 Cambridgeshire Handicap

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The Cambridgeshire is undoubtedly the big betting race of the day on Saturday and it’s certainly the most difficult puzzle of the weekend for us punters.

When approaching a race like this it’s not uncommon to come out of it with a shortlist of at least ten runners unless we can find a way to narrow down the field. Often in races like this the draw is the easiest way to rule chunks of the field out . In 2016 it looked as though high draws would be favoured and by backing my favoured two high drawn runners I was able to (huge aftertime incoming!) back the 328/1 winning exacta. I’ll be examining more than just the draw here though.

Draw

The 9f distance over which the Cambridgeshire is run isn’t a common one and most years we have the Silver Cambridgeshire the day before to give us some draw hints. There is no such race this year though and two days of largely small field races this week haven’t told us much about a potential current draw bias, although the centre of track seems to be where a lot of the action has taken place.

Looking at the Draw Analyser in Geegeez Gold for this 9f trip at Newmarket, we have data for twenty-two races run on ground ranging from soft to good to firm in field sizes of 16+ since 2009:

Remarkably there has been little to no long term draw bias over this course and distance. The win figures are almost exactly the same across the board, the place figures are almost identical and the PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) data is exactly the same for low, middle and high draws.

More recently higher draws have seemed advantaged though. Looking at the eight qualifying races since 2016 gives quite a different outlook:

It looks as though the higher the better as far as recent draws are concerned with high draws having twice as strong a place ratio compared to low draws and all other metrics improving the higher you are drawn.

It has been profitable to blindly back several stalls each way since 2016 and six of the top seven most profitable stalls have been 19 or higher.

One thing to note about straight course draw advantages is they can often change depending on the ground. It looks as though this race will be run on something close to good to soft ground. In 2017 this race was run on good to soft ground and whilst the 1st and 5th home stuck to the near side rail, six of the first eight home actually raced in the far side group. That year’s Silver Cambridgeshire, run on the same good to soft ground, saw 16 runners start on the far side and finish on the stands’ side with the winner once again getting the near side rail on the run in.

In summary it’s been advantageous in recent years to be drawn higher in this race, especially if able to race predominantly against the near side rail. Lower draws however are certainly able to place at the very least and a middle draw is fine, especially on good to soft ground.

Pace

Newmarket is often a course that favours those who are near the pace but big fields and a strong early gallop  at any course can often swing things in favour of those who are held up, especially over slightly longer distances.

The Geegeez Gold Pace Analyser shows us that in this race it can be an advantage to lead in this race, leaders have the highest win percentage and place percentage and have produced a win P&L 15.0. So the best value will likely be found with front runners. In terms of volume, most wins and places are held up in mid division or in the rear.

It’s potentially worth noting, despite very limited data, that in two recent course and distance races on good to soft ground no horse that was held up in the rear even reached the frame.

In this year’s renewal there are plenty of potential front runners and the pace seems fairly even across the track so on that score it should be a pretty fair contest.

The Distance

When recently analysing a 6.5f race at Doncaster  a trend emerged that recent winners tended to be 6f horses, with 7f specialists almost always finding it too sharp a test.

This race is contested by a mixture of milers and ten furlong performers - is there a bias towards speed or stamina?

Seven of the last ten winners of this race raced at a mile before taking this contest and five subsequently won a race over further. This seems to suggest this is slightly more of a speed contest than stamina contest (and you certainly don’t need to be proven over further than a mile) but having likely stamina for 10f or further would be a bonus.

Slightly more testing ground could have a say in this matter though. As previously mentioned, the 2017 renewal was run on good to soft ground.

The winner had his previous race at 10f and had a prior success at that distance.
The runner up had his previous race at 10f and had a prior success at that distance.
The 3rd had his previous race at 8f but had a prior success over 10f.
The 4th had never previously run over further than 8f.
The 5th had his previous race at 10f and had a prior success at that distance.

So on this occasion proven stamina seemed a big positive but one thing certainly worth noting is that the first four home that year in both the Cambridgeshire and the Silver version had all raced at a mile at least once that season so this isn’t a race for ten furlong specialists.

How Well Handicapped Do You Have To Be To Win This?

This is an important question to ask as plenty of these runners look pretty well handicapped. However if you generally need to have at least a stone in hand of your rating that will rule many of these out.

Last year’s winner, Lord North, is now rated 25lbs higher than when winning this. His stable mate, Wissahickon was rated 10lbs higher than his winning mark in this less than 6 months later.

2017 victor, Dolphin Vista, was rated a stone higher than his rating when winning this within 5 subsequent starts on the flat. Spark Plug, winner in 2016, went up 8lbs for his victory and never rated higher.

The winner in 2015, Third Time Lucky, wasn’t the most consistent but did subsequently rate 11lbs higher whilst Bronze Angel, who won this twice off marks of 95 and 99, also won handicaps later in his career off 104 and 105 with his rating going as high as 111.

Meanwhile Educate, the 2013 Cambridgeshire winner, went up 8lbs to a mark of 112 for his victory and although he never rated higher, he ran to that mark of 112 several times in the next year.

This goes to show that in most cases the winner was 8lb to 10lbs well in. If you can’t see your pick rating that much higher than his current rating then he’s probably running for place money at best.

And on the subject of the official ratings, it can also pay to see what sort of rating does well in this race. You need to be well enough handicapped to win of course but you also need to be classy enough. This year there is 26lbs between the top weight and the bottom weight so a nice spread of ratings.

In the last 10 years the winners have been rated between 107 and 87 so that’s not going to rule many out this year for win purposes (just the top 3 rated horses, but two of those are quite well fancied). In fact no horse rated higher than Wissahickon’s 107 has even placed in the past decade.

Eight of the last ten winners have been rated 95 or higher which would rule out the bottom thirteen horses as likely winners. Just thirteen of the last forty placed horses were rated lower than 95 too. Eighteen placed runners have been rated between 95 and 100 inclusive and only eight runners this year represent that band. Meanwhile only eight placed horses were rated 101 or higher and seven horses are rated above 100 this year. Despite that relatively poor record for those higher up in the weights, in eight of the last ten years at least one horse rated 101 or higher has made the first four.

Half of the last ten winners have been rated between just 95 and 99 and only six runners (less than a quarter of the runners) this year fit into those ratings.

Cambridgeshire Odds

I’m not a fan of stats such as “only one winning favourite in the past ten years” as a runner doesn’t have less of a chance to win just because they’ve been backed from second favouritism into favouritism, and horses certainly don't know their odds.

However there is some mileage in looking at bands of prices that tend to do well as it shows if the results tend to be reflected in the previous form book or not.

The fact that eight of the last ten winners were priced up at 14/1 or lower goes to show that there aren’t many great shocks in this race. Now a runner currently priced up at 25/1 could end up winning at 14/1 tomorrow so not looking at anything above 14s would be counter-productive but it’s definitely something to consider with more than half the field likely to start at a bigger price.

The 2020 Cambridgeshire Field

So for place purposes it’s difficult to rule runners out based on draw, running style, stamina or official rating. However those who have raced at a mile at least once this season and those who are rated 100 or lower should largely be favoured, as should those drawn higher rather than lower.

For win purposes, we are likely looking for a runner:

Likely to have at least 8lbs in hand of official rating
Has run at a mile this season
Preferably races in mid division
Preferably drawn middle to high
Starting price of 14/1 or less

And those rated between 95 and 99 should certainly be very much considered.

So let’s look at the main contenders:

Tempus

He's won both starts this year (at a mile) and seemed to have improved for his seasonal reappearance last time out. He’s been consistently strong at the finish over a mile, will handle the ground fine and is 3lbs well in under his penalty. Looks the proverbial ‘group horse in a handicap’ and appears to have a nice draw in 23.

If you were picking holes in his form you could say he hasn’t beaten anything this year (nine beaten runners in his last two races haven’t placed between them since) but it’s not his fault he hasn’t raced against better horses and his tactical versatility could be an asset in this.

Sinjaari

Won the John Smith’s Cup in good style on his seasonal debut and unraced since (withdrawn twice because of soft ground). The ground is unlikely to be completely ideal here and he doesn’t look likely to be well served by the drop in trip either (tried several times over further than 10f last season). Stall 6 probably a slight negative too and likely to be given plenty to do. The form of his win this season does look strong though.

Ilaraab

Likely to be the shortest priced runner from the classic generation, who have won three of the last five renewals of this. Another of those ‘group horses in a handicap’ having won four on the trot including a mile novice win. It’s difficult to gauge the strength of his form but he did give 7lbs and a length beating to Spirit Dancer a few starts back and that horse has gone close in a handicap off 83 since so you can’t really argue he’s badly handicapped here off 94. Impossible to rule out completely.

Derevo

He’s looked primed to win a decent handicap this season but things haven’t quite worked out for him. This drop in trip in a big field should suit but he hasn’t raced at a mile this season and the ground has probably gone ever so slightly against him. The draw in stall 11 perhaps isn’t brilliant too so he might have to wait a bit longer for his first win in over a year.

Bell Rock

He appears to have been saved for this since finishing 3rd in a good handicap at Glorious Goodwood. That was his first run over 10f and he appeared to stay fine but he also has good form over a mile this season, notably when 6th in the Royal Hunt Cup from a poor draw. This 9f trip might be absolutely ideal for him but he’s been well enough beaten twice from this mark and doesn’t appeal as one who necessarily has 8lbs or more in hand despite relatively low mileage still.

Montatham

He's been a revelation this season since gelded, winning four of his six starts and not finishing out of the first 2. He won a very strong handicap two starts ago off 104 but had his limitations slightly exposed last time out at listed level and now finds himself racing off 109. He would have been beaten in his last couple of handicap wins in another stride or two so the step up in distance is a slight concern, as is stall 2.

Sir Busker

A real credit to connections and a horse I have a soft spot for having followed him since he was rated 77 last year. No one would have thought this horse would be a leading contender in the Cambridgeshire off 111 but that’s a testament to how much he has improved this season. He’s still capable of rating higher than 111, especially with cut in the ground, and he’ll adore this big field. However his last to first tactics won’t be easy to pull off here and stall 3 isn’t ideal so he’s reluctantly passed over. I’d take him in a match bet against Montatham though!

Certain Lad

This horse seems to keep on improving and he was a slightly surprise winner of a Group 3 last time out. This is a monumental ask off a mark of 112 though and he’s another with a draw lower than ideal in 8.

Fifth Position

This horse still looks well handicapped on several pieces of form this season, including his mile run at Newcastle in June and his John Smith’s Cup effort in July. He’ll enjoy the little bit of dig in the ground but he’s looked like he needs to go up in trip rather than back in trip this season. He may well run creditably and can still rate a fair bit higher than 104 but perhaps something like the November Handicap will be more his cup of tea.

Al Rufaa

Gosden and Dettori have won this for the past two years but this looks like a bit of an afterthought for Al Rufaa who has been exclusively campaigned at 7f. It’s difficult to see him staying and he was below par on softer ground last time out so a win in this would be a slight shock.

Lucander

A really interesting contender and one who looks overpriced. Well drawn in 27 and representing the 3yos who do well in this, he’s open to improvement after just eight starts and he brings big field handicap form into this. He won with a bit in hand last time out over 1.5f further on soft ground but was competitive earlier in the season over a mile when 3rd to Strait Of Hormuz.  That winner is now 13lbs higher, the runner up is 18lbs higher and the 4th is 17lbs higher. Lucander is only 9lbs higher than his 3rd over a mile and 4lbs higher than his recent win.

He’s likely to be held up in midfield which is fine and the only negative seems to be an inexplicably poor run at Newmarket’s July course this summer. His best form, and most his runs, have come on flatter tracks but that’s just a niggling worry more than anything.

One at a Bigger Price

Most of those at the bigger prices need to prove themselves in conditions or bounce back from poorer runs. One runner who seems to have been a little underestimated is John Berry’s Kryptos.

Before missing almost 3 years of racing he was beating the likes of Mountain Angel off almost level weights by 5 lengths. Mountain Angel went on to rate 113 yet Kryptos is still rated just 89. Since his return from injury his form has been a bit in and out, and certainly not to his pre-injury best, but there are signs he’s ready to strike. The most notable of those signs was two runs ago when his stamina was stretched at 10.5f, admittedly at Chester which isn’t the most stamina sapping of tracks. He was 3rd and the winner has since gone within a short head of winning again, the runner up has won a big handicap, the 4th has won since and the 5th has been an unlucky loser. He’s drawn in stall 4 which is probably a negative and this is probably too hot company but don’t be surprised to see him outrun his odds of 50/1 here and pop up at a big price before the season is out. One for the tracker at least.

Verdict

It would be no surprise if any of those near the head of the market were to triumph here, especially Tempus who appears to have untapped potential going up in trip (lots of stamina on the dam’s side). However he’s the favourite in a 29 runner race and still hasn’t seemingly beaten much in terms of well handicapped runners.

So at more than twice the price it is Lucander who appeals most. Not only does he bring a nice profile into the race and the scalps of some well handicapped rivals, he also seems to fit the bill of many previous winners perfectly. He’s almost certainly still got at least 8lbs improvement in him, he’s run well at a mile this season, he’s likely to race in mid division, he's drawn middle to high, he’s probably going to go off around 14/1 or shorter (currently priced up at 18/1 and 16/1 with most bookies) and he’s currently rated 98 which is just about the perfect sweet spot as far as ratings are concerned. Assuming he's fine at the track he should run very well.

Retiring Stat of the Day

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In November 2011, a shortish (three years) time into the geegeez.co.uk journey, we introduced a daily feature called Stat of the Day. The objective was to highlight, through the use of data and statistics, a horse whose chance we felt was under-valued by the market.

Since that fateful day almost nine years ago, we - mainly Chris, the current primary author - have published more than 2600 Stats of the Day. From those, we've recorded almost 550 points in profit at the advised Best Odds Guaranteed prices. Not surprisingly, then, SotD has grown a sizeable fan base.

But I feel the time has now come for us to retire the service. Over the last couple of years, the value game has changed somewhat, with overnight BOG being withdrawn by all but a tiny handful of bookmakers. We responded to this by moving the publication from the evening before to the morning of racing, but of course that doesn't suit everyone. As a consequence of these changes we've ended up somewhat between a rock and a hard place in terms of the optimal provision I would like us to offer.

So I have decided that the time has come for Stat of the Day to step back from frontline duties, and to enjoy a pick of grass away from the rigours of hard training, so to speak. The service will run to the end of this month, its final day being next Wednesday, 30th September.

Like I say, I'm acutely aware of Stat of the Day's fan base, and mindful that for some this will be an unpopular decision. The other main reason we're calling time on SotD is that I felt we have been painted into a corner a touch by daily circumstance. We have been obliged to put up a selection every day (Monday to Saturday) within a certain price parameter, even though some days there was nothing of interest and other days we might prefer to back something at a bigger price for pennies each way.

I've also personally always wanted SotD to be 'edutainment' rather than tipping: I want geegeez.co.uk to be a place where people can come to improve their betting, and I strongly feel that the content of Chris's posts provides bundles of angles for those taking notes to refer back to on other occasions.

Ultimately, though, it has been judged by the bottom line - our own fault to some degree, and not something we have ever shied away from in good times or bad. But that's not what I want this racing form subscription site to be about. I want to empower you as a geegeez user to be confident in finding value for yourself; and, while I'm happy for us to provide examples along the way, I no longer want us to state so unequivocally what we think the answer should be.

What next?

So I guess I'm sort of an anti-tipping evangelist, and I've called SotD an anti-tipping service for a long time; but it's never really been seen as such. Again, our fault as we have continued to publish results. Enough of the past and the present. What of the future?

In place of Stat of the Day will not be a gaping hole: rather, there will be a similar provision in many respects but it will be different in some key regards.

We will still offer a daily race preview Monday to Saturday, but:

* It will be available to all readers, not just Gold subscribers

* It will revert to an evening publication slot

* It will exclusively be based around one of the Gold races or features of the day

* It will not be a 'tracked service', as its primary purpose is to educate about race reading and the toolkit we have to facilitate that

* There will not always be a pick at the end of the preview and, where there is, it might be a win bet, each way, back to lay, lay or anything else.

In other words, the content will be similar but those looking for a horse to bet may find something missing.

Again, I know this won't be universally popular; but I am very happy to share Chris's (and the rest of the team's) excellent thought processes with a wider audience whilst at the same time being able to illustrate the brilliant range of tools we have at our disposal.

Stat of the Day has been an amazing part of geegeez.co.uk and Geegeez Gold. But as the form provision has grown, so the tipping element has felt increasingly incongruent. I hope that, from October, we'll be able to help you get to grips with what we have and how it can lead to a horse - or horses - which seem to represent value; and that the absence of a selection at the end of it will soon be an irrelevance.

Here's to Stat of the Day. And to the next chapter. Thanks for your continued support.

Matt and Chris

Monday Musings: The Day Pat Changed The Law

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I only met Pat Smullen once, as against bumped-into as we do or rather did on the ever-moving canvas that is or was until March 2020, the world of horse racing, writes Tony Stafford. I’m sure I smiled across at him on one or more of my increasingly-rare trips to Ireland, or his sporadic jaunts to the UK while he was busy winning his nine domestic titles and an immense warmth within the Irish racing community and his own family which is right at the centre of that intense world.

It was with a mixture of delight and trepidation that I learned on July 7th 2016 from Hughie Morrison’s ultra-efficient secretary Jane Bexx –maybe the real Posh and Becks! – that Pat Smullen would partner Raymond Tooth’s home-bred Dutch Law in the 6.05 race on the following Saturday.

It seemed he’d not been required for Tipperary that day and had been booked for six rides at Ascot’s Summer Mile meeting, presumably working around his primary objective, riding Sir Michael Stoute’s Convey in the feature race. Convey was a disappointing seventh that day but Pat’s trip over did provide its dividend when he brought home Ed Dunlop’s 6-1 shot Manjaam to a comfortable success in the 5.35 race, a mile and a half handicap.

So Smullen’s final act of a long day, before he headed off to nearby Heathrow for his flight home, was his mount on Dutch Law.  At that point in his life the gelding was a 13-times-raced winner of one handicap under Martin Harley on the July Course just over a year previously, and less-than-honourable possessor of five second places. Hence the trepidation: the delight was the prospect of what Pat might encourage him to do!

Well he, with the jockey’s help, made it six runner-up slots, with a decent effort which the race close up in the Racing Post reminds me that he squeezed through after being short of room to run the George Baker-ridden Experto Crede, a three-year-old trained by Ed Walker, to just over a length, conceding that younger horse 12lb.

I tried to rekindle the visual imprint I have of that race by pressing the race video feature on the Racing Post site this morning, but was instead shown the first race of Salisbury’s evening fixture, scheduled off five minutes earlier at 6.00 p.m. Inevitable, maybe, with all that racing going on, as was the case last Saturday when three races with their mini-screens, were showing at the same time on Racing TV.

What I do remember clearly though without any need of a memory jog is Pat spending quite a lot of time being very gracious about a horse that in the scheme of things could easily not have meant anything much to him. I left the track that night reflecting on what a nice man as well as a brilliant jockey he was.

His riding also had an emollient effect on Dutch Law. Next time out, just a week later, back on Newmarket’s July Course, this time teaming up with Oisin Murphy for the only time, he won with a last-stride lurch on the line. Then the partnership did something I’d never previously witnessed on an English racecourse. Oisin was aware that the gap between this 4.55 race, off almost five minutes late, and his intended ride on a Ralph Beckett good thing in Lingfield’s 6.10 race did not leave much spare time for the 95-mile (presumably less as the plane flies) trip.

So there they were actually cantering across the July Course paddock and into the winner’s enclosure with barely room for the announcement of his narrow win with future champion Oisin looking back apologetically saying: “Can’t stop, see you!” He did make it to Lingfield, incidentally, winning easily and as he has often conceded since, it’s the fastest he’s ever gone on a racecourse after pulling up!

Then came the Charlie Bennett show. That 5lb apprentice also showed a good degree of communication when after another successful run on the same Newmarket track three weeks later, Charlie stayed and chatted for at least half an hour following a more comfortable seven-furlong victory with me and Peter Ashmore.

Tried at a mile there six days later he was third, not really getting home, but then came his greatest triumph when together Dutch Law and Bennett came from last to first to collect a £50k to the winner prize in the Albert Bartlett handicap early in September. We had a couple of frustrating eliminations from races we thought he could win from the bottom of the handicap, but did get a final run on that track when for a time looking like winning the £112k first prize in a Heritage handicap before fading into a close 11th of 18 behind Librisa Breeze.

The last rites on Dutch Law’s career were left to Jim Crowley, who in three previous tries on him had never been over-complimentary, in a conditions mile race at Doncaster when he was slowly away and never in contention finishing last of eight.

Jim, never one to mince his words and never mind that Dutch Law had won three nice handicaps in his previous five races, said: “Basically he’s a shit!” That was telling Raymond and me too, but fortunately Raymond was safely at home and never got to hear Jim’s measured condemnation. For some reason Raymond has chosen not to use Charlie, so I’m delighted that the jockey has been getting plenty of rides and winners lately. His performance on easy winner Bad Company at Windsor recently was an excellent example of his developing talents.

Here it’s worth acknowledging Hughie Morrison’s skill with members of Dutch Law’s family, progeny of Ray’s dual-winning mare Lawyer’s Choice, who now is the dam of five winners. They all need careful management as their knees are often not the best.

There is a post-script to the Doncaster run. Only days afterwards, Dutch Law went to the Tattersalls Newmarket Horses In Training sales and was sold for 150,000gns. Constant vigilance has shown only one subsequent public mention of him, an entry in one race in Dubai that wasn’t taken up and he didn’t appear again.

The aforementioned Experto Crede never raced again in the UK after that Ascot defeat of Dutch Law, turning up in Hong Kong, presumably after a whopping private sale. While ultra-busy for the next two years there, Experto Crede never achieved a high level. He did manage to win three of his 31 races, one each with the Hong Kong greats, Zac Purton and Joao Moreira, as well as Silvestre De Sousa also winning on him.

Another major player that day also had only a limited time before his career and almost his life was ended. It’s easy to erase the memory of even recent events and I admit I’d forgotten just how successful George Baker had been.  He is now one of the regular expert guests on Racing TV, mostly for the all-weather fixtures and often with the immensely-talented American, Rachel Candelora. George has overcome the dreadful injuries sustained in a horror fall on the ice track in San Moritz, Switzerland, on a John Best-trained horse in March 2017.

When George won the race at Ascot on Experto Crede, it was one of 1364 winners in an 18-year riding career during which he recorded six centuries, four in a row to 2016. The most unlikely statistic was his tally of 163 in 2014, astonishing in view of the fact that ever since his first rides in 1999 he always had to cram his six-foot frame into riding at 9st, something that even the two brilliant O’Brien boys could handle for only a few seasons once they reached maturity.

There’s something of the Pat Smullen about George Baker, polite and friendly to all, despite his travails. It’s marvellous that he could rebuild such an unpromising life prospect into a successful second career as well as his valued role behind the scenes helping Ed Walker.

There was to be no positive long-term happy solution to Smullen’s cancer, though, after it was first diagnosed in 2018. From that point, Pat, married with three children to Frances Crowley, sister of Anne-Marie O’Brien and therefore uncle to Joseph, Sara, Anastasia (Anna) and Donnacha, worked tirelessly (and no doubt often more than tiredly) in charitable causes and above all organising that memorable race when A P McCoy and many other greats of racing joined together to make such a financial emotional success.

It isn’t unusual for people to be spoken of in a kindly way when they die. What is remarkable is for an entire country to show such shock, dismay and above all love and deep affection for someone. Pat Smullen, only 43, should have had many more years to live and enjoy with his family and legion of friends not only in his native land. As I said, I met him properly only once, but I never forgot the experience. Neither did Dutch Law!

- TS

Stat of the Day, 21st September 2020

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Saturday's pick was...

5.20 Newton Abbot : Midnight Magic @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Chased leaders, driven along in 3rd after 4 out, plugged on)

Monday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Novices Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m on Good ground worth £2,794 to the winner...  

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which tells us that we've a 5 yr old rated a narrow second on the neural ratings we licence from Dr Peter May and who is trained by one of a number of handlers that I keep an eye out for in Class 4/5 hurdles.

That trainer is Alistair Ralph and I'll now try to show you why I'm interested in his Class 4/5 hurdlers. If we go back to the start of 2017, Alistair's record shows...

... a strike marginally better than 1 in 8, almost 1 in 3 making the frame and just about profitable. These aren't bad figures to be fair, a trainer making profit (albeit very small) from blind backing at Industry SP is always a good starting point, but I don't want to have backed all 365 runners over the last 45 months, just to make 3pts profit, so what do I want?

Well, as my angle above says, I want to back his class 4/5 hurdlers, because over the same time frame, they are...

...which moves the 1 in 8 strike rate closer to 1 in 6, generates a good (30%+) ROI at ISP and if you can get an A/E of over 1.25 allied to an IV of over 1.50 from a set of data with more than 150 qualifiers, then you're on the way to profitability. Obviously they don't all win, but you're much better off with these 175 runners than playing with all 365.

With today's race in mind, it's also worth noting that these 175 are...

  • 22/114 (19.3%) for 59.8pts (+52.5%) after 1-6 weeks rest
  • 20/66 (30.3%) for 17.7pts (+26.8%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 16/87 (18.4%) for 32.1pts (+36.9%) on good ground
  • 16/84 (19.1%) for 47.7pts (+56.8%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 15/95 (15.8%) for 31.0pts (+32.6%) in handicaps
  • 12/73 (16.4%) for 24.9pts (+34.1%) at trips shorter than 2m1f
  • 7/45 (15.6%) for 37.1pts (+82.4%) at Class 5
  • 7/25 (28%) for 31.1pts (+124.4%) off marks (OR) of 100-105
  • 4/16 (25%) for 13.0pts (+81.25%) during September/October

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG as was available at 8.20am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

SotD Update, 14th to 19th September 2020

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A much better week this time around, finishes of 121 in the first half of the week wiped out September's losses and actually out us in front by Wednesday evening and then we had two narrow defeats at Ayr at decent prices before rounding off the week at Newton Abbot in a tricky looking 3m2f chase.

Midnight Magic was sadly unable to round off a decent week with a win, but did run creditably enough to finish third meaning five of our six picks made the frame in a week that put us back in profit for both the month and the year as a whole.

Chris

Selections & Results : 14/09/20 to 19/09/20

14/09 : Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG (6.375/1 after a 15p R4) WON at 7/1
15/09 : Charlie Arthur @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 
16/09 : Dashing Roger @ 4/1 BOG WON at 4/1
17/09 : Glasses Up @ 11/2 BOG 5th at 4/1
18/09 : Nomadic Empire @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1
19/09 : Midnight Magic @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2

14/09/20 to 19/09/20 :
2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +7.00pts

September 2020 :
3 winners from 16 = 18.75% SR
P/L: +0.50pts
ROI = +3.12%

2020 to date :
29 winners from 153 = 18.95% SR
P/L: +7.31pts
ROI = +4.78%

Overall:
685 winners from 2617 = 26.18% SR
P/L: +539.18pts
ROI: +20.60%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Nine Runners To Consider In Saturday’s Big Sprints At Ayr

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The two big handicaps on Saturday both take place at Ayr over 6f within 70 minutes of each other. With a total of 50 horses set to go to post across both the Ayr Gold Cup and Ayr Silver Cup picking winners, or even places, is not going to be easy.

I’ll be providing a shortlist of horses that have strong or hot form and are worth consideration for both races. In races like this there are always plenty of runners that have been laid out for the race so recent form isn’t necessarily the be all and end all but hopefully we’ll see some of these run well.

Ayr 6f Draw and Pace

A lot is always made of the draw in these cavalry charges but can we rule any runners out, or give extra consideration to others, based solely on the draw?

Looking at 16+ runner handicaps run at Ayr since 2009 on ground ranging from soft all the way up to good to firm, low draws have comfortably held the edge across all metrics.

The data offers some conflicting figures about whether middle is preferred to high or vice versa. It seems if you are drawn high, a particular area of the high draws and a certain run style is of great advantage.

High drawn front runners do particularly well. In fact in terms of PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) the most efficient and effective combination is high draw and speed. Prominent racers seem to have the same chance wherever they are drawn and then the more a horse is held up, the more it is an advantage to be drawn low.

It’s worth noting that all horses drawn in the top third of the draw contribute to the high drawn data. However if we look at individual draw data we see some quite revealing stats.

The above shows that as far as PRB is concerned, the two highest stalls are way out ahead, albeit with limited data, whilst the remaining high stalls are all amongst the worst for PRB. So it seems a very high draw is fine, or even advantageous, whereas a middle to high draw can be a big disadvantage.

Looking at these races run on just good to soft ground gives us less data but hopefully a further insight into how the bias will be this weekend.

No wins for the middle stalls looks a bit misleading here as the place percentages and PRB both confirm a middle draw can be slightly preferable to a low draw.

The PRB heat map on good to soft ground once again shows that if you are drawn high you almost certainly need to be on the pace. If you are drawn low then it is potentially more of an advantage to be held up. The runners will probably split into two groups and the far side group will almost certainly be bigger so it stands to reason that those held up from a low draw get a decent pace to aim at and are therefore slightly advantaged.

If I had the pick of the draw and didn’t have an out and out front runner I’d probably choose a draw somewhere between 7 and 14. Horses can run well from low, middle and high stalls here though and a ‘better’ draw should only be seen as an advantage of perhaps a few lbs rather than a guarantee of victory.

Ayr Silver Cup – 2.30pm

King’s Lynn

It’s easy to see why he’s been installed as the 4/1 favourite here. He won a Doncaster sales race last year as a 2yo beating Repartee and Toro Strike (both since rated in triple figures).

Of more relevance is his form this season. He’s had just the one start, a month ago, in a novice event. He was defeated by 2.5 lengths when sent off odds on which on the face of it is disappointing. However the winner of the race has since won at listed level and is now rated 111 so for King’s Lynn to get within 2.5 lengths, in receipt of 2lb but conceding race fitness reads well for a horse now running in a handicap off 94. Full Authority was 4.5 lengths behind King’s Lynn in that race, also giving the Andrew Balding runner 2lbs, and he has gone close in two handicaps since off 87 which again suggests King’s Lynn’s effort was worthy of a mark north of 94.

His draw in stall 6 looks near perfect and even if just reproducing his last run he should go close. Add in some improvement for that first run of the season and the fact he’s still had just three starts and he’s tempting, even at prohibitive odds.

Rathbone

At around 12/1 he looks a solid each way bet based on his form at this distance this season. In June he finished 3rd to Glen Shiel and Tabdeed at Newcastle and both those runners have gone on to win Group 3 races recently. Back in 4th was Treacherous who won his next two starts in handicap company. Remarkably he gets to run off the same mark of 90 here despite also finishing runner up at Ascot last time out, beaten just a head.

He’s drawn in stall 22 and is often held up so that does look a big negative based on past draw data. Maybe the Bronze Cup will show this to not be the negative the data suggests.

Aplomb

This runner tends to be overbet but an inconsistent, disappointing season means he is finally becoming a working man’s price (as big as 18/1 at the time of writing). For his entire career he has looked in need of 6f and cut in the ground. Last year when he got those conditions his form was 21120, the last run was a very rare poor run at the end of a long season. He’d probably had enough at that point.

This season started off promisingly. He was a running on 5th over an inadequate 5f on fast ground on seasonal debut (1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th and 7th all at least runner up since). He’s now 3lb lower. Off the back of that run he was sent off near favourite for the Silver Wokingham but he found drying ground against him and ran a respectable 7th. All runs since have come at less than 6f.

The bad news is he is 5lbs wrong here compared to his current, falling mark. He is still well handicapped on old form though and under optimum conditions from stall 10 he could outrun his odds.

Magical Spirit

It’s surprising to see this horse available at 28/1 for this. He does have a bit of an in and out profile but he has run well in both turf starts this season and seemed to benefit from a wind op last time out when a running on 4th at Haydock in deep ground. The 3rd that day, Danzeno, went close to winning the Portland Handicap on his next start and Magical Spirit was only half a length behind Danzeno on this occasion. He’s won at 6f before and the return to this trip should suit.

Show Me Show Me

The biggest question mark for this one, and probably the only reason he’s available at 33/1, is the trip. He should be well handicapped here based on his Royal Ascot 8th in which the 1st, 2nd and 7th have all won since and many others have run well in defeat. He’s now 7lbs lower despite running okay and being better than the bare form on his last two starts.

This is a step back up to 6f, which he hasn’t convinced at yet in three starts. However two of those came as a 2yo and the one run at this distance as a 3yo came in a Group 3 for which he was sent off 28/1 and at that time Richard Fahey’s runners were mostly needing, or improving for their first runs of the season. He has often been outpaced at the half way point over 5f so there is hope he can stay this fair and from stall 4 he should run well if staying.

Ayr Gold Cup – 3.40pm

Staxton

Last two wins have come at Ripon, where he tends to do well, and both races have worked out nicely. The first of those victories saw him beat a dual subsequent winner whilst the 4th has finished runner up on both starts since and the 5th has won since. Five winners have emerged from his latest win including the 3rd and the 4th. He’s another 6lbs higher and hasn’t performed brilliantly here for the past two years but he’s better handicapped than the last two attempts and he does hold Mr Lupton (favourite at the time of writing) on the bare form of their recent meeting too and has a decent draw in the middle.

Mr Lupton

He was 3rd to Staxton on his penultimate start in that aforementioned warm race and went two places better to win a big field Curragh sprint next time out. Mr Lupton is 1lb better off with Staxton for a 0.75 length loss and now has the 5lb claim of Billy Garritty so has claims of reversing placings over this different course. Stall 11 looks pretty much perfect for him.

Barbill

A winner on his seasonal debut in a race that couldn’t be much hotter. The 2nd was runner up in the Stewards’ Cup on his next run at the distance, the 3rd and 4th have both won twice since and the 5th has also won since.

He’s now 10lbs higher, which makes life a lot more difficult but the 3rd is now rated a stone higher and the 4th won easily last week off a 6lb higher mark so it’s not beyond him, especially as he was a running on 6th in the Portland Handicap a week ago after being badly hampered at the start of the race.

From stall 12 he appears to have an excellent chance here.

Bungee Jump

This runner has almost certainly lost his form based on his last two runs but it’s interesting that this front runner is drawn in the second highest stall here – an angle that has done well in the past. On his seasonal debut he beat subsequent winners into 2nd and 3rd and he held his form well for his next two starts. He’s gone up 8lbs in the ratings this season but if he returns to form and if front running on the near side rail is an advantage (neither are guaranteed) he’d surely have as much chance as anything so 50/1 perhaps underestimates him, for all he is a very risky proposition.

Final Thoughts

Two very difficult races but if given two selections in each race I'd go for King's Lynn and Magical Spirit in the Silver Cup and then Barbill and Mr Lupton in the Gold Cup. The best bet between the two races is potentially Barbill each way at 25/1 (price correct as of Friday afternoon) given pretty much everything appears to be in his favour here.

Carlisle National Hunt Pace Bias

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When discussing the word pace our primary focus is the initial pace in a race and the position horses take up early on, writes Dave Renham.

The running style of the horses is another way some pundits describe it. geegeez.co.uk includes a pace section (the Pace Analyser) where you may research this angle to your heart’s content.

Pace data on the site is split into four run styles – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). The number in brackets is the pace score that is assigned to each section.

For this article I am again concentrating on data going back to 2009 with races of eight or more runners. My main focus when looking at pace will be handicap races, but for National Hunt racing I do also look at some non-handicap data. CARLISLE is the course under scrutiny today.

The course is a little over a mile and a half in circumference and is considered to be a stiff, galloping track. The hurdle course is shown below:

 

As you can see there are three flights in both the back straight and the home straight.

The chase course has nine fences of which two are open-ditches.

The fences are considered to be fairly easy at Carlisle.

 

Carlisle Handicap Hurdle Pace Bias

They run over three main distances in hurdles races at Carlisle namely 2m 1f, 2m 4f, and and 3m 1f.

N.B. it should be noted that on Geegeez the 3m 1f trip comes under the 3m 2f (26 furlongs) bracket for research.

 

2 miles 1 furlong – here is the handicap hurdle breakdown (8+ runners):

 

There is a definite edge toward runners that race up with or close to the pace. Below shows a graphical comparison of the A/E values, which helps illustrate the pace bias visually.

 

1 - Held Up / 2 - Midfield / 3 - Prominent / 4 - Led

 

Interestingly, of the 12 front-running winners, 11 had raced prominently or had led on their most recent start.

In non-handicaps, however, the picture is less clear cut as we can see:

 

Front runners do well again while hold up horses look at a severe disadvantage. However, horses that have raced midfield fared surprisingly well. This gives us a slightly confusing picture so it seems best to concentrate only on handicap races therefore from a pace perspective over this 2m 1f trip.

 

2 miles 4 furlongs – in the past few years they have raced half a furlong either side of 2m 4f (so 2m 3 ½f and 2m 4½f) so I have lumped these similar trips together. Let’s examine the handicap hurdle breakdown (8+ runners):

 

A fairly level playing field here with no edge to any particular running style. Front runners though seem to have under-performed and it actually looks a disadvantage to lead early in such races.

Onto the non-handicap data:

 

In non-handicaps a pattern seems to emerge if we focus on the place percentages - they seem to suggest that in reality horses that race close to or up with the pace have had the advantage. The IV figures also suggest this, although the A/E values for hold up horses offers us conflicting evidence: they have won infrequently but occasionally popped up at a big price.

 

3 miles 1 furlong – at Carlisle there have been races of 3 miles ½ furlong up to 3 miles 1½ furlongs. On the Geegeez site you need to combine the 3 miles and 3 miles 2 furlong data to get all the relevant qualifying races. A look at the handicap data:

We see that hold up horses have the best record here – they have the best strike rate, too, which is rare, and by far the best A/E figure.

Below is a graphical representation comparing the A/E values for all pace scores across all distances:

 

1 - Held Up / 2 - Midfield / 3 - Prominent / 4 - Led

 

In general, we can see that in handicap hurdle races at Carlisle, as the distance increases the front running bias at the shortest distance (2m 1f) becomes a hold up bias at the longest distance (3m 1f).

The figures for hold up horses (1 / blue bar), prominent racers (3 / grey bar) and leaders/front runners (4 / yellow bar) all correlate in terms of the switching of the pace bias as the distance increases; horses that race mid division (2 / orange bar) don’t quite fit the same pattern but that is largely due to a slightly skewed performance (in my opinion) at 2m4f.

Non-handicap races over this extended 3 mile trip are rare – just nine in total going back to 2009 and only three of those had eight or more runners. Hence the data set is far too small to analyse!

 

Carlisle Handicap Chase Pace Bias

Over the bigger obstacles at Carlisle they race at 2m, 2m 4f, 2m 5f, 3m and 3m 2f. I will lump the 2m 4f and 2m 5f data together to give a bigger data set. I am also going to look exclusively at handicap data as there are very few non-handicap races at any distance where eight or more runners have taken part.

 

2 miles – 27 qualifying two mile handicap chases, so a relatively small sample:

 

Despite the smallish sample we can be fairly confident that front runners have a strong edge here. The closer you race to the pace the better and prominent racers have a decent record too. Hold up horses have struggled, shown by the poor strike rate and very low A/E and IV figures.

 

2 miles 4 furlongs to 2 miles 5 furlongs – there have been a decent number of handicap chases with eight or more runners combining these distances (55 races). Here are the stats:

 

Front runners enjoy a clear advantage over this distance, too, with figures that are very similar to the two mile data set. Horses that race midfield or at the back early again struggle, although hold up horses perform marginally better than they did at the minimum distance.

It seems that the pace bias may accentuate as the ground softens. On soft or heavy going, front runners have won over 25% of the races with an A/E value of 1.94 (IV 2.48). On good to soft or faster, this drops to under 17%.

 

3 miles – they generally race at 3 miles ½ furlong. Here are the handicap chase data (8 + runners):

 

For the third distance in a row we can see a strong front running bias. Hold up horses actually perform around par which is a clear improvement when compared with the two shorter trips.

 

3 miles 2 furlongs – the final distance to examine for handicap chases with 8 or more runners:

Again front runners have a good record, as do prominent racers. Hold up horses perform extremely poorly which surprised me considering the data from three-mile races.

Let us now look at all the handicap chase pace data graphically in terms of A/E values.

 

1 - Held Up / 2 - Midfield / 3 - Prominent / 4 - Led

 

This graph once again compares each distance pictorially, and the yellow bar (leaders) is clearly best overall, and at each individual race distance. At three of the four distances the grey bar (prominent racers) is clear second best.

Carlisle, in terms of handicap chases, seems to have a reasonably strong pace bias across the board – there is significant value in handicap chases at Carlisle in front runners and to a lesser extent prominent racers.

*

Before closing, I want to share one more graph with you. This looks at the performance of prominent runners and leaders combined in terms of field size in handicap chases across all distances. I have noticed before that quite often a pace bias gets stronger as the number of runners increase. That again seems the case here. I have plotted both A/E and IV figures to illustrate this:

 

 

As can be seen there is a steady rise in performance from smaller fields (8 to 9 runners) through to bigger fields (12+ runners).

 

Carlisle National Hunt Handicap Pace Bias Summary

To conclude, handicap chases offer the pace punter the biggest edge at Carlisle. In hurdle races the picture is less cut and dried, although there is definitely a front running bias in handicap hurdles at the shortest range, while over 3m 1f hold up horses fare best in the handicap sphere.

**Exciting New Syndicate** Novice Hurdler

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As you may have read here, I was at the sales recently looking to buy a horse with flat form to go hurdling this winter. I was actually looking for a three-year-old but, with my choices either making fortunes or having one or two potential issues, the horse I've secured is a year older and, I now feel, represents excellent upside potential.

The only real implication of that is he won't be targeted at the Fred Winter or Triumph Hurdles, assuming we were good enough for that job. Instead, we have a horse with the size and scope to jump a hurdle - and maybe a fence in time - and who might just make up into a smart winter recruit without the eye-watering price tag normally associated with such prospects.

Almost Sold Out

Three shares remaining!

 

The Horse

He's called Makthecat, and was formerly trained by Karl Burke. He won a mile novice stakes at Southwell in January, and has been fairly busy since the resumption of racing. In the past three months, he's run six races, placing third twice. My feeling, and more importantly that of Olly Murphy, who will train the horse in his new career, is that he's probably got more to show over a longer trip, and perhaps (though not definitely) doesn't want to be ridden so assertively from the front either.

 

He has flat form off a rating of around 70 but, most interesting - and relevant - of all, he ran in one *excellent* bumper. On that first day in school, at Huntingdon in November last year, he finished a close second, splitting a pair of subsequent Listed bumper performers - with six lengths and more back to the other dozen runners in the race.

The winner and third - whose subsequent form you can see below - both won Listed races within two starts of the Huntingdon race; and both ran in the Champion Bumper, a notoriously difficult contest for four-year-olds, with Ocean Wind managing an impressive sixth of 23 starters. As you can also see from the image below, they were rated 130 and 118 respectively ahead of that Champion Bumper contest.

"Junior" bumpers are run over a trip shy of two miles - this one was a mile and three-quarters - so stamina has ultimately to be taken on trust. But he wasn't stopping there, and his stride/cadence metrics fit the profile of a horse that would normally stay two to two-and-a-quarter miles. I cannot categorically say he will stay but I obviously feel he will, or I wouldn't have signed for him!

His run at Huntingdon gives plenty of hope that we're right about trip and riding style, but obviously we now get to roll the dice and find out!

The Plan

Makthecat was picked up last week from Newmarket and has gone directly into a field where he'll have a short break to freshen up and acclimatise to his new surroundings.

After that, in a couple of weeks' time, he'll head to Charlie Poste's farm where he'll be schooled over barrels and poles and, in early to mid-October, he'll join the routine at Warren Chase, Olly's training base.

With a following wind, he'll be ready to run in a novice hurdle in middle or, more likely, late November. So we'll be on the track sooner rather than later, assuming no hiccups between then and now.

He looks a really nice horse with which to try to win a novice hurdle and, after that, we'll see how far he can go in his new sphere. It might be he can get competitive in conditions races; more likely we'll be running in handicaps, hopefully good and valuable ones.

The dream is always to have a horse good enough to compete at the spring festivals. Olly realised that dream for us at the first attempt with a horse called Oxford Blu, who won on debut by 20 lengths (!) and went on to run in the Fred Winter. Sadly he was badly hampered in that race but it was a day as owners we'll never forget.

Most horses are not good enough to compete at that level, and the balance of probabilities is that Mak will find his place at a lesser table (you need to be 140+ to get into most Cheltenham Festival handicap hurdles these days).

Regardless, he looks sure to give us plenty of fun through the winter, spring and beyond.

The Syndicate

I'm syndicating Makthecat into eleven shares. I've taken one myself, as always, and have sold three more. So there are seven shares available.

The cost to join the syndicate is £4,000, which covers 1/11th of the purchase costs, plus all training and racing expenses in year one, up to 31st August 2021.

Full details can be found in the syndicate agreement, which you can download here.

As a syndicate member, you will be entitled to an equal share of prize money and any sales proceeds down the line, in line with your shareholding (i.e. 1/11th). There are no charges built in for running the syndicate month to month, but I do propose to take 7.5% of the sale price, assuming the horse is sold, for my trouble. That is for another day, of course, but I want to be completely transparent about it from the outset.

Also, as a syndicate member, you'll be able to take part in yard visits to Olly's stables near Stratford-upon-Avon and will be entitled to at least one owner's badge each time our lad runs. Where there is availability, you may request a second badge but these cannot always be accommodated.

And, naturally, you'll receive updates on our horse's well-being, current work load, and the plan as it unfolds.

In essence, you'll be able to get up close to the sport you love as a racehorse owner.

What next?

I expect this syndicate will sell out quite quickly: it's a 'point and shoot' type arrangement with a fit horse from the flat who just needs a little time to re-train for his new job. He'll be ready to race in little more than two months assuming all goes well (it sometimes doesn't, so keep that in mind!), and that's more appealing to many who don't enjoy the longer road associated with, say, a store horse.

Anyway, that's a verbose way of saying that, if you're interested in potentially joining this syndicate, do please read the agreement linked to above and make sure you're comfortable with it, and then drop me an email at ma**@********co.uk

Very much looking forward to this fellow!

Matt

p.s. here's a link to Makthecat's form

Monday Musings: Quelle Weekend!

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Compacting the 2020 racing season in Europe’s three major nations has caused some difficulties, but when weekends like the one we’ve just witnessed happen, then assuredly it will be remembered for many years, writes Tony Stafford.

The last of four days of the St Leger meeting started on Wednesday with a trial gathering of 2,500 spectators and then neutered back again to selected insiders only by rising Covid-19 infections, if not deaths, both locally and nationally. France, meanwhile, had its customary trials day on Sunday, three weeks ahead of the Arc meeting itself, and Irish Champions Weekend, at Leopardstown on Saturday and the Curragh yesterday, completed the puzzle.

Normally the trainers associated with the big winners would have wanted to be there to witness their achievements. That wasn’t the case for Joseph O’Brien, who completed an astonishing feat in his 28th year by becoming the only man since the great Harry Wragg to first ride and then train a St Leger winner when Galileo Chrome got the better of Berkshire Rocco under Tom Marquand on Town Moor.

https://twitter.com/skysportsAlexH/status/1304874097470509058

As has been widely reported, Marquand fortuitously got the ride on his first Classic winner because his proposed mount, English King, was re-routed to Longchamp’s Grand Prix de Paris yesterday - where he ran disappointingly. Original booked rider Shane Crosse was in quarantine after testing positive for Covid-19 despite showing no symptoms and “feeling on top of the world”.

Harry Wragg, born in Sheffield in 1902, was one of the leading jockeys between the wars. Known as the Head Waiter for his preferred style of leaving his challenge late – a 1930’s prototype of Jamie Spencer - he won two St Legers, although only the first was truly authentic. Sandwich, in 1931, was trained at Newmarket by Jack Jarvis for the 6th Earl of Rosebery, once captain of Surrey CCC. The 1943 winner, Herringbone, trained by Walter Earl for the 17th Earl of Derby, the last of his six St Legers and twenty Classics in all, was a war-time substitute run at Newmarket.

Wragg’s sole training success in the St Leger was in the 1969 race when Intermezzo won under the Australian jockey Ron Hutchinson for Gerry Oldham. Thus Wragg, who began his training career in 1947, took 38 years between riding the winner of the Classic and training one.

Joseph O’Brien had retired from riding by the age of 23 having been a triple champion jockey in Ireland. He was 20 years old when Landing Light won the St Leger. Compared with Wragg he certainly isn’t any kind of “waiter” with just seven years between the two events.

Back in 1980, a year before Wragg’s retirement from training and only five before he died aged 82, I visited him at his Abington Place stables in Newmarket’s Bury Road, accompanied by his son Geoff who would take over the stable with continued success in 1982.

I went there with Prestatyn-born Bryn Crossley, who sadly died two years ago, as at the time I was helping book his rides. We worked together for only that season, when he was apprenticed to Geoff Huffer at Cheveley Park, the racing stables now the location for Cheveley Park Stud. It was mutually satisfying when that very popular and personable young Welshman became Champion Apprentice that year.

Harry Wragg had booked Bryn for his three-year-old filly Popaway, a sound stayer who from (questionable) memory had 6st9lb in the long handicap. The old master, a true innovator, and one of the first trainers to weigh his horses regularly, wanted to go through the race with Crossley and it was quite an experience for us both. Bryn claimed 5lb and was planning to get down to 7st2lb – which he comfortably managed - for only the second time in 1980. The first was on Jim Bolger’s Lynconwise at Leicester, a race he won very easily on Whit Monday.

There was a chance that if the original Cesarewitch top-weight were to come out at the overnight stage as was rumoured, there would be a big hike in the weights, but he stayed in and that left the very tough Popsi’s Joy, owned and bred by the bearded solicitor Victor Morley Lawson and trained by Michael Haynes at Epsom, to run almost loose on 8st6lb.

Haynes shrewdly booked Lester Piggott, still at the height of his powers in his mid-forties, for the ride at his minimum weight. Two furlongs out Crossley took Popaway to the front, but Lester and Popsi’s Joy were always going easily and soon joined the filly. The two horses quickly drew away from the other 25 runners which included Sir Michael, who had won for Huffer the previous year and John Cherry, successful four years previously under Piggott. Popsi’s Joy won comfortably by a couple of lengths with Popaway around five lengths clear of the rest.

Popsi’s Joy won eight races in 1980 and 17 in all, culminating in a four-length victory as a 10-year-old in the Tote Cesarewitch Trial at Warwick. He survived at Michael Haynes’ stables until dying, aged 25, in 2000.

There was a post-script, as the top-weight, who did eventually miss the race despite having been kept in until the final declaration stage, was to make one further minor footnote in his career.

In those days, the Press Association, where I worked for three years in the early 1970’s, used to issue for Weatherbys a daily bulletin of Official Scratchings in a system far removed from the instant technical processes of today. At the bottom was a sorry final section entitled, “All engagements – dead”. There within a few days of the race, while we were still bemoaning Popaway’s bad luck to be so far out of the weights, was the name of the absent top-weight. If that had happened in 2020, the conspiracy theorists would have had a field day. I think at the time I was just about the only person who noticed.

Incidentally, Morley Lawson had already owned a Cesarewitch winner, the Arthur Pitt-trained Ocean King, ridden by lightweight Tommy Carter in 1974. The previous year, Morley Lawson, then aged 67, won an amateur riders’ Flat race on that horse. I’ve mentioned here a million times about my part-time additional job as Editor of the old Racehorse newspaper. In the first front page piece I wrote for that still revered weekly, I happened to select Ocean King, who won at a long price.

In that issue, it was attributed to The Editor, and on the following Monday morning, my colleague Roger Jackson passed on a letter from Peter O’Sullevan noting the great tip and wishing him a successful career in the future. Understandably Roger’s name, alongside his greyhound selections, was the only one the always very gracious future Sir Peter could find to congratulate.

***

This past weekend was one of tremendous success for Irish stables, not least for the evergreen Dermot Weld who sent over his improving filly Tarnawa to beat Jean-Claude Rouget’s self-professed “champion filly” Raabibah by three lengths in the Prix Vermeille a couple of hours before his Search For A Song repeated last year’s success in the Irish St Leger. Amazingly – and I’d be willing to bet he never expected it to happen – that took him level on nine wins with Aidan O’Brien in that Classic’s long history.

https://twitter.com/WorldRacing1/status/1305189243933863937

Weld is 72, but he was not the oldest winning trainer at the meeting. Both Jessica Harrington, born a year before Weld, and Jim Bolger, her senior by a hardly-believable five years when you see him, were on the scorecard yesterday. The only notable non-celebrant on the day was Kevin Prendergast, still going strong and training winners. Kevin was born in 1932, the year after Harry Wragg’s first St Leger win as a jockey!

Harrington’s Cayenne Pepper won the Group 2 Blandford Stakes, but it was the exuberant triumph of her two-year-old colt Cadillac in Saturday’s mile Group 2, a win and you’re in ticket to the Breeders’ Cup, that caused most eyebrows to rise.

https://twitter.com/LeopardstownRC/status/1304794412245975040

Over the weekend, British-based – or more accurately Yorkshire-based – trainers won four races, three of them yesterday. The single link is that John Quinn, who won a Group 2 race with the ultra-tough seven-year-old Safe Voyage on Saturday;  Richard Fahey, with a Sunday double, and Kevin Ryan, who won a sprint with Glass Slippers, are all Irish.

https://twitter.com/BetfairRacing/status/1305153653637025797

Mrs Harrington needs to get somebody, presumably her daughter Kate who often works as an expert – which she surely is! - on Racing TV’s Irish coverage as well as an important cog in mum’s operation, to talk to Wikipedia. That fount of sometimes accurate knowledge, says she is “principally a trainer of National Hunt horses but has had some success in Flat racing”. Well said, Wikipedia.

One of the features of this behind-closed-doors season, which started in Ireland with Naas on June 8, has been the astounding success of the irrepressible Johnny Murtagh. He has already won 41 races, gaining a career-defining Group 1 win in Saturday’s Matron Stakes with the ever-improving Champers Elysees who came from last to first to see off the Group 1-winning  Coolmore pair of Peaceful (Aidan) and Fancy Blue (Donnacha). Johnny, highly successful in his time at Ballydoyle of course, continued riding when he first took out a training licence and was in the saddle in 2013 for his first four stakes winners, three at Group level. Champers Elysees was his first Group 1 and a memorable one.

https://twitter.com/HRIRacing/status/1304786040692015105

Murtagh also concluded the two-day and two-venue extravaganza with a spectacular handicap win with his 99-rated (up from 68 three runs ago) Sonnyboyliston, who drew almost five lengths clear of the other 21 runners. Talk about a Group winner in handicapper’s clothing!

Meanwhile Dad and the two precocious sons more than did their bit to keep the family firm in the ascendant. Donnacha had only a handful of runners over the two days but yesterday his Galileo filly, Shale, carrying the Derrick Smith silks, reversed Debutante Stakes form with Joseph’s Pretty Gorgeous when making all in the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes.

https://twitter.com/curraghrace/status/1305157080463048705

Joseph wasn’t content with just the one Group 1 winner over the weekend, though. In a high-class renewal of the National Stakes his once-raced Thunder Moon produced a sensational burst from an unpromising position in the colours of Mrs Chantal Regalo-Gonzalez. Aidan’s duo of Wembley and St Mark’s Basilica avoided trouble in that congested affair to take second and third. It would be more than interesting to see Thunder Moon and Cadillac line up in competition before the end of the year, maybe in Kentucky.

https://twitter.com/RacingTV/status/1305400890791047168

And as ever there was Aidan. His two 2020 Derby winners, Santiago from the Curragh and Serpentine, who made such a mess of the Derby field at Epsom, reappeared, although to be pedantic Santiago had run third to Stradivarius in the Goodwood Cup in between.

Serpentine went across to France for the Grand Prix de Paris and could finish no nearer than fourth to his hitherto disappointing stable-companion Mogul, who had gone into Epsom as the Ballydoyle number one. This was Mogul’s third run since Epsom and he took advantage of his subsequent race-hardening to suggest that those earlier high hopes for him were not illusory. Serpentine, foregoing front-running this time, will have plenty to say in the future, I’m sure.

https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/1305403906126745601

The two 2019 Derby winners were also out over the weekend. While Curragh hero Sovereign could not keep up the gallop after setting the pace in the Irish St Leger, Anthony Van Dyck avenged that Goodwood Cup reverse for his stable by holding Stradivarius all the way to the line in the Prix Foy at Longchamp. He has not always been able to replicate the form that won him last year’s Derby but on his day, and given fast ground, he’s a formidable Group 1 performer.

https://twitter.com/PMU_Hippique/status/1305165196659392517

Sorry Aidan, it’s not going to get any easier keeping that armada of middle-distance Classic colts apart, especially when you add to the mix Tiger Moth, a four-length Group 3 winner on Saturday in his first race since a strong-finishing second in the Irish Derby. And that’s not to forget where Magical comes into the picture. Good enough to stay close to Ghaiyyath before outpointing her York nemesis memorably in Saturday’s Irish Champion Stakes, this insatiable five-year-old phenomenon will keep her male companions in the shadows for as long as she wants to continue.

- TS

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2020

/in /by

Saturday's pick was...

4.35 Musselburgh : Amazing Alba @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 3/1 (Towards rear, headway 2f out, not clear run over 1f out, soon no impression)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which shows a 6yr old former course and distance winner dropping in class today, set to be ridden by a 5lb claimer. He's also in the top three of our own ratings and his trainer is one of my group to look out for here at Wolverhampton.

Closer analysis of those facts show that this runner has won five times at this track and is now 3lbs better off than his last win here back in January, whilst all five course wins have come under the following broad criteria that are in place today...2018-20 / handicaps / 7f-8.5f / OR of 54-74 and sent off in the 3/1 to 14/1 range. When those have combined, he is...

Jockey Ray Dawson might be a 5lb claimer, but with over 540 rides under his belt, he's no stranger to the saddle and has been in good nick of late winning 9 of 54 (16.7% SR) over the past month returning Betfair SP profits of 41.15pts at an ROI of some 76.2% and since 2018 in Wolverhampton handicaps over 6f to 1m4f at odds of 14/1 and shorter, he is...

And finally to trainer David Loughnane's record here at Wolverhampton. He's actually one of a dozen trainers I keep an eye out for at this venue and in David's case, the runners that interest me the most are those handicappers sent off at odds of 3/1 and bigger over trips of 7f to 1m4f, because since the start of 2018, they are...

...with a near 1 in 6 strike rate generating profits beyond 76p in the pound, including of note today...

  • 18/95 (19%) for 86.3pts (+90.8%) at odds of 5/1 to 16/1
  • 16/102 (15.7%) for 104.2pts (+102.2%) were unplaced LTO
  • 14/78 (18%) for 70.7pts (+90.6%) during August to December
  • 7/39 (18%) for 30.7pts (+78.6%) over this course and distance
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 78.3pts (+279.7%) with a jockey claiming 5/7 lbs

...whilst horses unplaced LTO sent off at 5/1 to 16/1 during August to December are 11/38 (29% SR) for 81.9pts (+215.6% ROI) with 5lb claimers riding 3 winners from 8 (37.5%) for 25.1pts (+314.3%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday (up to 9/1 in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 7th to 12th September 2020

/in /by

Well, what a week that was. And not in a good way, I'm afraid. Two placers from five is pretty poor going and only one runner actually looked like winning which just isn't good enough for our purposes.

I should clarify, I suppose. SotD is NOT a tipping service per se, but more of a way of finding a way into a race via stats and more importantly the Geegeez racecards. The aim is to find a runner that will perform better than the price available would suggest it will and by the large we've done that over the past 9 years or so.

However, we're here and it's now and the current status is that September is proving to be a struggle for me, as was July & August. I know in my heart that it won't continue forever and we'll be back amongst the winners in due course, but the bare facts are that all of 2020's profit has disappeared now and in mid-September, we're back to square one.

I'm down, but not yet beaten and I'll be picking myself up to go again tomorrow. Hopefully you'll be with me.

Chris

Selections & Results : 07/09/20 to 12/09/20

07/09 : Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG non-runner
08/09 : Cotton End @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 7/2 
09/09 : Gold Arch @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1
10/09 : Under Curfew @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 9/2
11/09 : Julie Johnston @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 5/1
12/09 : Amazing Alba @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 3/1

07/09/20 to 12/09/20 :
0 winning bet from 5 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -5.00pts

September 2020 :
1 winner from 10 = 10.00% SR
P/L: -6.50pts
ROI = -65.00%

2020 to date :
27 winners from 147 = 18.37% SR
P/L: +0.31pts
ROI = +0.21%

Overall:
683 winners from 2611 = 26.16% SR
P/L: +532.18pts
ROI: +20.38%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Do The Bookies Have The Wrong 3yo Favourites In The Doncaster Opener?

/in , , /by

The Portland Handicap was the obvious race to cover for Saturday but it would be very much a case of throwing a few darts at that race and you could feasibly back a horse that is beaten half a length and it could still be unplaced so instead I’m going to cover the 1.15 at Doncaster which gets underway before the ITV cameras begin rolling at Doncaster.

This is a mile handicap for 3yos and above and with twelve runners set to go to post it will hopefully be a lot easier to find the winner than the Portland Handicap later on in the card. Once again I’ll be mostly concentrating on ‘hot form’, a deeper dive into the strength of each horse’s form to date.

The Runners

King Ottaker

Mostly contested group races so far and only wins to date have been on soft ground. Arguably his best run to date was in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot last year and he hasn’t run particularly well in all three runs this season, all of which were over 10f on softer ground. It would be a surprise if he was competitive here off 102 back at a mile on drying ground.

Teston

Started the season off with a surprise 6 length win over course and distance at 20/1 and has raced twice in France since. That win was admittedly impressive but he beat very little that day with thirty-six runs from those in behind since and just six places (no wins). He’s gone up 11lbs for that victory and he probably left his chance of further handicap sucess this season behind with that victory and the inevitable hike in the weights that followed it.

Another Touch

Put together a hat trick of wins on the all weather over the winter but has since found a triple figure rating beyond him. He’s now dropped to a mark of 98, his highest winning rating on turf, but he needs to return to form having been beaten 10 lengths at York last time out off a 5lb higher mark when sent off 100/1. That race was a hot contest to be fair with the 2nd filling the same spot in a Group 2 next time, the 3rd winning a Group 3 on his next start and the 6th winning a handicap easily on his next run. The 8th also franked the form with a 2nd next time but Another Touch was 6 lengths behind even that runner so can’t be considered similarly well handicapped.

Firmanent

Was a half a length behind Another Touch last time out at his beloved York, the first below par run he’s ever put in at that venue. His very best form seems to have come at York but he was 2nd at Meydan earlier this year over this distance off a 1lb higher mark so isn’t hopelessly handicapped at other courses.

He’s also 1lb lower than his 4th at Newcastle in June in a race that has worked out supremely well.

The winner of that race, Sir Busker, has since gone up 19lbs in the ratings, the runner up, Dark Vision, has risen 12lbs. Meanwhile the 3rd, Fifth Position, won his next start and is now 5lbs higher. Firmanent was just 0.75 lengths behind Fifth Position so is on a workable mark having dropped 1lb since then.

His last run is a worry as it was a rare blip but it’s worth noting that was Sean Kirrane’s first ride on the horse and he was ridden more prominently than usual which might help explain things. If none the worse for that effort he could run well here.

Magical Morning

Beaten over 8 lengths on his penultimate start and over 16 lengths on his latest run but represents Gosden/Dettori so sure to have some supporters. He won a novice stakes impressively on seasonal debut but a 4 length beating of Mayfair Pompette (struggling in handicaps off 74) in receipt of 6lbs isn’t worthy of a handicap rating of 97 here. He followed that up with another novice win here, over course and distance. On that occasion he was a length ahead of Dreamloper, giving her 12lbs, and she’s since won off 85 which helps explain Magical Morning’s lofty rating.

His first poor run came on rain softened ground at Newmarket in a listed race which gives him an excuse for that and his next flop came on his first try over 10f at Goodwood. He did run like a non stayer that day but didn’t run like a horse ready to strike when back in trip.

This handicap mark isn’t beyond him based on his sole run at this venue and perhaps the return here could revive his fortunes and the drop back in trip should definitely suit but he still needs to prove his well being.

Misty Grey

One of two runners for Mark Johnston. He made a belated seasonal debut just a week ago at Kempton, keeping on well in what is likely to turn out to be a strong race. He met some trouble early in the straight and shaped as though he’d definitely improve for the run. He was ridden closer to the pace last year so the fact that he was held up in last at Kempton suggests that run was definitely designed to bring him on.

As is often the case with one from this stable, he had a busy juvenile campaign with nine runs and he was highly tried (less than 5 lengths behind Golden Horde in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood).

He’s run at Doncaster before, finishing a nose behind Lazuli in a 3 runner conditions race. That runner has scored easily at listed level this season whilst Brad The Brief, 1.75 lengths back in 3rd, has also won a listed race this season. He looks well enough handicapped to win a race this season and is likely to be seen to better effect ridden closer to the pace this time.

Aweedram

Returned in good form this season after losing his way last year. His 2nd to Alternative Fact at Haydock in July off a 5lb lower mark has been well enough advertised since with every runner from the first 6 who has run since at least placing subsequently.

He’s not the most straight forward though, has shown his best form on softer ground and is having his first run for Kevin Frost having left Alan King since his last run. He’ll be of more interest later in the season back on softer ground.

Matthew Flinders

The most lightly raced contender in this field, he was a fairly warm order dropping back to a mile last time out at Sandown and ran well enough in 3rd, beaten less than a length. He raced a bit wider than ideal on that occasion but didn’t seem to have any obvious excuses. Grove Ferry, 5th that day, has since finished 3rd but did look as though he’d improve for the run at Sandown and a similar comment applies to Raaeq (a head in front of Matthew Flinders last time) who won comfortably on Friday with the better ground suiting when successful.

He’s up 2lbs and entitled to be competitive once again with the form of his last race beginning to work out well but both of the runners who have boosted the form were entitled to improve a fair bit on their next starts. He is clearly not badly handicapped but I do have a feeling he is only fairly handicapped. It's not a shock that he's the early favourite but he doesn't look a value play.

Overwrite

He’s been fairly consistent all season, running as though this mile trip is his optimum when not quite getting home in four attempts over further. His mile form stands up pretty well, he lost a class 2 handicap to Tempus in the stewards’ room in August and Tempus has come out and won again since. His limitations were slightly exposed on his next start in a big field of unexposed 3yos at York when 6th, 4.25 lengths behind La Trinidad who reopposes here.

He’d be perfectly entitled to finish around 3rd or 4th here but no reason why he should reverse the form with La Trinidad and vulnerable for win purposes once again racing 7lbs higher than his last win.

Diocles Of Rome

Bit of an eyecatcher here over a furlong shorter last time out on seasonal debut in a decent race, being outpaced when a slow early gallop lifted before staying on really well late on. The winner, just 0.75 lengths in front of him that day, finished a close 2nd next time off a 2lb higher mark.

Ghlayoon, 2nd in that race, was a better than the bare result 3rd on Friday and Breanski (6th) finished 3rd here this week when probably inconvenienced by a drop back in trip on that occasion. So whilst this race hasn’t thrown up subsequent winners yet, those that have run have each emerged as pretty much the best horse in their respective races.

This is his first run over a mile in over 2 years and it’s impossible to say if all his improvement since has come because he dropped back in trip or because he was gelded ahead of that drop back in trip. On the face of it he shaped as if needing further last time but the early gallop was steady that day and given he can be keen in his races he’d be a safer bet in a well run 7f.

Other than his recent close 5th here he previously won by 2 lengths at Doncaster so clearly goes well at the track.

Sandret

After winning on his sole appearance at this track, over 2f further, he’s largely struggled.. He’s been tried over 12f this season (failed to stay) and now has his first run over a mile in 13 months.

The winner of his last race, when he was beaten over 5 lengths into 5th, has remarkably since won a Group 1 (Audarya). It would be best not to take that literally and instead look what the rest of the field have done since. The 3rd, What’s The Story, ran okay back at his favoured York whilst the 4th, Dark Jedi, has finished runner up in two good races since. Sandret was 2.5 lengths behind Dark Jedi though and arguably the best gauge of his handicap mark is Cockalorum who was a short head behind him and has run twice since. Cockalorum finished 4th on both subsequent starts running pretty well in a big York handicap before not being quite in the same form next time out.

Sandret’s last run was a fairly good one, certainly better than it looked, and a 2lb drop gives him half a chance of being competitive at a price (around 16/1 at the time of writing). His last run at a mile was off a 5lb lower mark and he was beaten on the nod by a nose by Romola who has since rated a stone higher so he’s certainly not a no hoper, but he’ll need a strong pace to aim at.

La Trinidad

An improved performer at 3 having shown very little last year as a juvenile. He won comfortably over 8.5f on his seasonal debut and the horse to get closest to him on that day and have run since was Phoenix Approach who won two runs later. He followed that win up with an easy 5 length win here at Doncaster (7f), a victory that saw him rise 12lbs in the handicap. The 3rd from that race has won twice since but there have been a fair few poor efforts too.

He remained at 7f at York on his next two starts, presumably finding good to soft ground too testing on the first of those when fairly well beaten before getting within 2 lengths of Brunch back on faster ground.

Brunch, Black Caspian and La Trinidad all met again next time out at York over a mile, finishing in the exact same placings as they did over 7f previously. Jumaira Bay ran to form next time winning a maiden (2nd in that maiden came out and won by 8 lengths) so the form of these runners stacks up. Even the 7th , 8th ,and 9th have both come out and placed.

You could argue that the form of La Trinidad took a few knocks on Thursday. Jumaira Bay and Black Caspian both ran relatively poorly but Jumaira Bay was sporting first time headgear that looked likely to not suit and all of Black Caspian’s best form has been at York. Also Eastern World, who was 2.5 lengths behind La Trinidad over a mile at York, ran poorly but he too had first time headgear on and was dropping back a furlong so it’s understandable he didn’t run to form. It’s fair to say this isn’t ideal for La Trinidad but with the valid excuses it’s not a major concern either.

La Trinidad was the one to take out of the mile handicap won by Brunch at York. He was held up in last and denied a run from 2.5f out to 1.5f out but he flew once in the clear and is probably unlucky not to be unbeaten over further than 7f this season. He’s up 4lbs for that effort and it would be no surprise to see similar hold up tactics employed again, but probably with more success over this straight mile in a smaller field.

Draw and Pace

With only 12 runners here the draw isn’t going to completely make or break any of them.

All metrics point towards a middle draw being advantaged but a low draw not being far off. High drawn runners have performed really poorly on good ground over a mile in this sort of field size. Jockeys seem to have preferred to go near side in a lot of races this week when possible but you get similar data regarding high being a disadvantage on both good to firm ground and good to soft ground so I’m inclined to think a middle draw is definitely going to be ideal.

A few runners in this race are going to want a decent pace to aim at so let’s check out a pace map.

There is every chance Teston and Overwrite take each other on up front. There is also a good chance that Misty Grey is ridden much closer to the pace this time, he led on three of his final five runs last season, but you’d assume Mark Johnston wouldn’t want both his runners cutting each other’s throats. Magical Morning’s best form has also come when on or near the pace so expect to see him close up.

With most of the pace drawn central they’ll almost certainly elect to come up the centre of the track.

Verdict

You could make some sort of case for many. Magical Morning has too many question marks and I expected much bigger than 7/2 on him so he looks no value at all. I respect Matthew Flinders but also suspect he isn’t as well handicapped as many think he is so I’m going to put a line through him too. If Matthew Flinders is successful be sure to put First Winter and Zegalo into your tracker as both were close up in his last race.

There are some trip question marks over Diocles Of Rome and Sandret. Don’t be surprised if the latter massively outruns his odds but in a race with some solid contenders both are too risky. Diocles will remain of interest over 7f.

Overwrite is very much exposed and very vulnerable for win purposes. His stable mate Misty Grey was ridden to pick up the pieces last time and whilst he’s of some interest, this may be too strong a race for him. Look out for that runner in a slightly less competitive contest or if his Kempton run begins to work out.

That leaves La Trinidad and Firmanent as most interesting. Firmanent needs to bounce back from a rare poor run but reverting to hold up tactics here should help. The very early 25/1 offered on him looked far too big and even the 20/1 available at the time of writing looks a mistake.

Firmanent finishes 2nd twice as often as he wins though and he’s never won a handicap away from York so whilst he is likely to run well in defeat, it is La Trinadad who is drawn in the centre stall who gets the vote. He hasn’t run a bad race on ground that is good or better this season, those runs have all worked out pretty well and he should probably be undefeated at this distance this season. He has a course win to his name and should definitely rate higher this season. At an early 11/2 he looks a very fair each way bet in this contest.

2020/21 Football Season Preview

/in /by

It's time for my once a year public foray into footballing waters, the purpose being to strike a familiarly-shaped wager. Familiar to longer-suffering readers, at least.

Each season since 2016, I've constructed a £50 perm trixie (seven bets, total stake £350) comprised of:

- a team to be relegated from the Premier League

- a team to be promoted from either the Championship or League One

- one or both of two teams to be promoted from League Two

I like the shape of this bet for a couple of reasons. Firstly, promotion offers the hope (and hedge opportunity) of the playoffs; and secondly, League Two has three automatic promotion spots as well as a playoff consolation down to seventh place. That makes for engagement long into the season even if we've picked fairly moderately!

 

Last Season - yuk!

Speaking of moderate picking, last season was just that. I opted for the following:

- Brighton to be relegated from EPL (15th, comfortably stayed up)

- Portsmouth for League 1 promotion (5th, 2 points off second (auto), lost in playoffs)

- Plymouth for League 2 promotion (3rd, promoted)

- Mansfield for League 2 promotion (21st, hopeless!)

In truth, if Pompey hadn't started so desperately, they'd have got the one extra win they needed for automatic promotion, and I/we would have been celebrating a P-mouth promo double, paying 8.75/1 and clearing a small profit on the ticket. If...

 

Previous seasons

In previous seasons, the results have generally been a bit more favourable.

2018/19 got Lincoln promoted as winners (2/1) and Huddersfield relegated as wooden spooners (5/4) for a 5.75/1 double. Sunderland's position as playoff favourites enabled a hedge for the full trixie (Notts County were relegated, having been nominated for promotion, as the other leg of the League 2 component!). So it was a profitable losing bet, thanks to that playoff safety blanket.

 

Jackpots and jigger all

2017/18 was a blowout but 2016/17 was a jackpot year, and in style:

Sunderland to be relegated from Premier League: finished bottom

Newcastle to be promoted from the Championship: won the league

Portsmouth and/or Plymouth to be promoted from League Two: finished 1st and 2nd

This paid out £3,770 for my stakes, and pays for nine losing seasons!

**

2020/21 Picks

So much for the past, what of the future?

Premier League relegation

This market is always made by the promoted clubs who often out-perform expectations. The most outstanding recent example was Sheffield United last term, a side expected to finish bottom but who finished in the top half, twenty points clear of the drop.

There is a good chance that one or both of West Brom and Fulham will yo-yo back down again - both have a recent history of so doing - but Leeds look set to stay up having been clear best last term and invested well (Rodrigo from Valencia looks a 'steal' from the bigger boys, and the German international defender, Koch, also catches the eye).

The two worst teams not to drop last season - on xG at least, whose chickens tends to come home to roost sooner or later - were Newcastle and Aston Villa. While Newcastle have been busy shoring up their midfield with the solid signing of Jeff Hendrick, it is the business that is expected to complete early this week which offers confidence they'll improve this term. Ryan Fraser and Callum Wilson are a proven double act who will fit into the Steve Bruce model seamlessly. Their partnership at Bournemouth two seasons ago was one of the all-time greats in terms of productivity, and bringing the pair in together offers an immediate settling effect for both. [Stop press: Wilson signing is confirmed]

Jamal Lewis is expected from Norwich, too, and he was as exciting a young attacking full-back as there was in the division last campaign.

The Magpies were fairly resilient at the back last season (seventh poorest conceded figure) and could be more fun to watch going forwards in 2020/21.

Wilson was snatched from Villa, whose slightly higher bid was withdrawn when they heard the player preferred Newcastle. Herein lies the midlands club's challenge: they're not terribly appealing to players. Last year's foreign legion scrambled enough results to survive on the last day, at the expense of Bournemouth - sob - but I'm not remotely convinced they will survive again.

The addition of Matty Cash from Forest could help bolster a porous back line, but they were terribly moderate going forwards. The exception, of course, was the mercurial Jack Grealish, a player linked with plenty of clubs though without the substance of an actual bid at this time. He's likely to want away and a team that almost got relegated with Grealish is an obvious contender for the trap door without their talisman. Oh, and they're dreadful away.

The price as ever, 2/1, makes the play. Actually, 15/8 on my ticket, as you'll see in a minute.

League One Promotion

A tricky old division this season, but one where, once again, Sunderland make the market for no obvious reason. They've signed nobody and are currently being linked with a 35-year-old ex-player: should be ideal for a 46 game season with Cups on top. They finished eighth as favourites last year, though were only three points off second in that truncated Covid-19-affected season.

The team for my funds finished on the same points as the Black Cats and missed the playoffs, like Sunderland, on points per game at the pause of play, though they were the form team as the virus stopped everything. Peterborough will have to do it without their main man, Ivan Toney, who is a class player and looks set to advance Brentford's push for the top division having recently swapped clubs for about ten million quids.

Still, the Posh have plenty of depth. The signing of Jonson Clarke-Harris from Bristol Rovers looks positive: he scored 24 in 42 games in his shortish stint for Rovers and, while it asks a chunk of any player to replace Toney, Clarke-Harris has a proven eye for goal and will get plenty of service. He joins Mo Eisa, who can already boast a one-in-two goal record for Posh across 29 games last term.

Sammie Szmodics was an important loanee last season, from Bristol City, and if the chat about his return has any substance they'll be the team to beat. Even if it doesn't, they ought still to offer a very good run for the pennies. 7/2 is generous.

The relegated Championship teams all look to have off-field problems in a year when administration is sadly bound to be a headline in places across the lower tiers.

League Two Promotion

I'll take two bites of the League Two cherry. The first is the least inspired pick on my ticket: Bolton. They've been through the wringer in recent seasons, playing much of the early part of last term with journeymen and juniors, and were not always able to fulfil their fixtures such was the paucity of squad depth. The drop was inevitable though there was a late season rally prior to a points deduction which rendered such on-field valiance academic.

A new season brings a new dawn. Manager Ian Evatt achieved incredible things with Barrow, now a fellow League Two side, and will have a blank canvass upon which to paint his vision. Eoin Doyle looks a great signing up front, having scored 25 goals in 28 games in this division last season.

Evatt's big task will be to mould a new squad into a cohesive eleven and overlay his playing blueprint pronto. That was a mission that did for Notts County (relegated) two season back, and I'm aware that for many this will not look like a value play.

But, with the prospect of financial meltdown seemingly averted for the time being, players, staff and management will be able to focus exclusively on improving the 53% (10 from 19) record of divisional favourites getting promoted this century*. That makes 5/4, arguably and just about, value in a bet like this. They'll be an interesting watch regardless of outcomes.

*Stat courtesy of welovebetting.co.uk

The second name on the League Two ticket is a much more reliable - ostensibly, at least - if less exciting collective, Cheltenham Town. Their progress last term was predicated on defensive soundness espoused by their manager, and former 300-match Cheltenham centre back (as well as Championship Manager legend back in the day!), Michael Duff. Having plied his trade formatively in the west country, he then spent a dozen years at Burnley where he will have further honed the art of grinding out results - and I write that most respectfully.

At the cessation of play last season, Cheltenham had conceded just 25 goals in 36 games, a streak which included only six losses. Playoff heartache followed, but Duff is expected to be able to lift his team for an automatic promotion push this time around having added experienced League One players Andy Williams, Matty Blair and Liam Sercombe to a settled squad. Further depth comes from a trio of young loan signings, providing a balanced blend of legs and brains.

The loss of Ryan Broom to Peterborough is the only notable departure meaning that, while the Robins may not be the most free-flowing side in the division, they'll generally be taking points from games. As a season ticket holder, I'd tolerate that; as a punter, it's absolutely ideal! 3/1 seems good value with three places and the playoffs down to seventh.

The 2020/21 Wager

So that's where this season's hopes lie: in the northwest, the midlands, the southwest and the east - all four corners of our fine lands on one ticket.

Betway, with whom I've long been unable to back horses for more than the price of a bag of crisps, have kindly accepted a more substantial stake on these seasonal outcomes.

The lowest possible return off the ticket would be Bolton/Villa which pays a touch under 11/2, so not quite money back. But, as we've seen above, if any other team makes the playoffs, there's a chance to hedge to profit even from there. Any other double will produce a small profit.

Of course, we still have to get two of these eventualities to come to pass!

Looking on the bright side, an all correct trixie involving Bolton would return £2,932.03, while if Cheltenham joined them in the promotion slots, and both Posh and Villa obliged, the best outcome possible is £6,994.52.

Seven grand for £350 makes the maths easy: it's a 20/1 possible return, including stake, with plenty of (granted, somewhat precarious) safety nets built in.

A £35 stake delivers a possible £700 return, and £3.50 gets the chance to cheer for £70. That's assuming you don't think the above is outright claptrap, which of course it very well might be.

But it's eight months of fun for one up-front investment, and I've laid it out, potential warts and all, to be shot at. Caveat emptor, natch!

**

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Good luck!

 

Monday Musings: Weird Ky Derby Looks Authentic!

/in /by

It’s been a topsy-turvy world for everyone this year, writes Tony Stafford. I bet the connections of Tiz The Law, 7-10 favourite for Saturday night’s re-scheduled Kentucky Derby, run in 2020 as the second rather than first leg of the Triple Crown, wished the race had simply been erased from the schedules. Instead it took place in September rather than the first Saturday in May and the Bob Baffert-trained Authentic outstayed the favourite for a memorable sixth win in the race for his silver-haired trainer.

The Americans have not found it within their powers to re-write the programme books as their European counterparts did to keep their Classic races, if not to the normal schedule, certainly in the prescribed order.

The Stateside authorities changed the distance and position of the Belmont Stakes, but kept it in June, racing having resumed over there a good deal earlier in some jurisdictions than others and well before France, the UK and Ireland in that order.

The Belmont, normally the last leg and over a mile and a half of the biggest oval in North America was reduced in distance to nine furlongs. The Barclay Tagg-trained Tiz The Law was untroubled to beat nine rivals there and extend his career stats to five wins in six starts. He embellished it further with a facile win in the Travers Stakes – normally the August date which identifies the summer champion among the three-year-old colts – two months and more after the Belmont.

By the time the three-race, five-week war of attrition is concluded on that June afternoon in New York, normally most of the Classic generation that managed to keep all three dates are on their knees. It takes a good one to survive it.

Two years ago, Justify was Baffert’s fifth winner of the race and his second to complete the generally-elusive Triple Crown. The Belmont, following the Preakness two weeks after the Derby and then the race in New York three weeks further on, proved to be within Justify’s capabilities, but no more. His career came to a full stop after a training injury soon after, but at least he could be retired as an unbeaten winner of the Triple Crown with six out of six on his scorecard.

Three years earlier Baffert was immediately denied an unbeaten campaign for American Pharoah once he was beaten on debut in a maiden the previous autumn. But by the time he’d won his Triple Crown, his tally was seven for eight, with all bar one of the wins in Grade 1 company – the exception a first-time three-year-old cruise in a Grade 2 to get the competitive juices flowing again.

He was tough, too. He won the Haskell Invitational in early August at Monmouth Park, but then as so many before him, got beat in the Travers at Saratoga, for good reason known as the Graveyard race for Triple Crown race winners or Horse of the Year candidates. He bounced back after a sensible break with an impressive win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic before drawing stumps and preceding his younger fellow TC hero into stud duties at Ashford Farm.

I was on hand – for the only time - to see Baffert’s third Kentucky Derby win in 2002 with War Emblem in the green and white stripes of Prince Ahmed Salman’s Thoroughbred Corporation. That 20-1 chance made all the running.  Baffert had already sent out Silver Charm (1997) and Real Quiet the following year to score. I’ve no doubt that having put away Tiz The Law in a thrilling set-to up the Churchill Downs home straight, many would have been hoping to see them do battle again at Pimlico racecourse in Baltimore for the Preakness, but immediate post-race reaction suggested one or even both might miss the final leg.

That race, normally run two weeks after the Derby but this year four, unlike the Belmont but in common with the Derby, has retained its traditional distance of one mile and three-sixteenths. This was the course and distance over which California-based Seabiscuit memorably beat the East Coast champion War Admiral, the 1937 Kentucky Derby winner, in that famed match race. This of course was made doubly treasured by Laura Hillenbrand’s book and the film in which Tobey Maguire and Gary Stevens – as good and natural an actor as he has been for so many years an outstanding jockey – played the roles as the great underdog’s jockeys.

As they turned for home in that 1938 race, the big favourite War Emblem had drawn upsides and most of the massive crowd expected him to pull away. Instead it was Seabiscuit, who had become a much-loved symbol of the American working class in those Depression years, who gained the upper hand: courage and toughness outpointing class and evidently superior breeding.

Saturday’s Classic was virtually a re-make of the Seabiscuit film. Two horses came around the long turn between the back stretch and the home run with the favourite poised on the outside and the rest clearly irrelevant. Authentic had moved quickly from an ordinary start into an early lead from his wide position, so it was reasonable watching live to think he could be swamped when Tiz The Law, always well placed, came with his customary wide run to take his rightful place at the top of the podium.

But as with Seabiscuit, this relative underdog, third favourite at a shade over 8-1, kept going much the better for a length and a quarter success.

Going into the race, Authentic, like the favourite, had suffered only a single reverse, in his case behind Honor A P in the Santa Anita Derby, turning over an earlier result between the pair. Understandably, Honor A P edged him for second best in the Derby market, but there can be no doubting the pecking order now, as Honor A P finished five lengths behind the winner in fourth.

A smaller-than-usual field contested the race this year. Normally it’s a bun-fight to qualify for one of the 20 available stalls. This time, only 15 turned up, reflecting that there are fewer untested dreams at this stage of the season from later-developing horses than is customary. What I did notice, possibly because of the smaller field and the fact that the runners have had more racing experience than is customary, hard-luck stories seemed minimal.

Also it was one of the fastest-ever Kentucky Derbys, the winner clocking 2 minutes 0.61 seconds. Secretariat in 1973 still holds the all-time best with 1 minute 59.4 seconds in his Triple Crown year. Monarchos in 2001 has the fastest electronic time, while in 1964 Northern Dancer, the ultimate sire of sires, most significantly the direct line, from his son Sadler’s Wells through to Galileo and then Frankel and the rest, clocked an even 2 minutes.

Other fast times were Spend A Buck, 2.00.2 in 1985 and Decidedly 2.00.4 in 1962.  Authentic, with only five faster than him is right up there in historical terms, certainly in front of Baffert’s previous quintet, the less attritional, more even-tempo nature of the race – on a track that was riding fast – doubtless contributing.

Many times, beaten Kentucky Derby runners avoid the Preakness entirely. This year, of the nine horses beaten by Tiz The Law in the first leg of the Triple Crown, only two – neither in the shake-up on Saturday – tried again.

It would be eminently understandable should either or both the big two miss the Preakness in four weeks’ time. A great shame too as if they did clash they would surely provide another proper shoot-out. Considering, though, how much money is on offer for the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the autumn and how easily future stallion fees can be affected by reverses, maybe it’s more likely that we’ll have to wait for a definitive verdict of the Horse of the Year - Covid19 edition!

*

While the Kentucky Derby was taking all the attention over the water, Enable was fulfilling presumably her last public duties in the UK (she still has entries on British Champions’ Day – here’s hoping) before embarking on her final act of an epic career when easily landing the odds (1-14 are hardly odds!) in the September Stakes at Kempton Park.

She was quickly into the lead under Frankie Dettori and won easily from Kirstenbosch, owned by Luca Cumani’s Fittocks Stud. Lightly-raced and on the comeback trail after an interrupted career, Kirstenbosch looks sure to win more races for the James Fanshawe stable.

Meanwhile Enable will be preparing for her ultimate quest, aiming to add a third Arc win after last year’s agonising second to Waldgeist, interestingly on the same weekend as the Preakness. Dettori has been a fitting co-respondent in the mare’s final glorious chapter along with trainer John Gosden. How typical in sport that a younger rival has come along from out of nowhere – well, Ballydoyle! - to make this possibly the toughest of all her four challenges for the famed French race that has become the true European championship.

Love stands in her way, gloriously after three authoritative and sometimes wide margin wins at Group 1 level in the 1,000 Guineas, the Oaks and the Yorkshire Oaks. I suppose there will be other challengers, but nobody loves a two-man (or woman) sporting tussle more than the viewing public. I’d love Enable to win but I don’t think Love will enable her to do so. If you see what I mean!

On an otherwise quiet weekend domestically, Haydock Park’s Group 1 race, the Betfair Sprint Cup, developed into a battle of the six-year-old geldings. The 5-2 favourite Dream Of Dreams, ridden by Oisin Murphy for the Sir Michael Stoute stable, got up in the closing stages to beat the Archie Watson-trained and Hollie Doyle-ridden 25-1 chance Glen Shiel, the pair leaving the three-year-olds Golden Horde, Art Power and Lope Y Fernandez well behind. The same went for two previous winners, The Tin Man and Hello Youmzain.

https://twitter.com/RacingTV/status/1302253464068788231

A race with rather more significance for the future was Yesterday’s Prix du Moulin de Longchamp on the first weekend since the racing roadshow decamped back from Deauville and its chewed-up terrain to the capital. Only six turned out, but it was a high-class affair. The Andre Fabre-trained Persian King (by Kingman) turned away Pinatubo by just over a length, with Circus Maximus a long way back in third but still ahead of Irish 2,000 Guineas hero Siskin who seems a shadow of the early-season version.

https://twitter.com/AtTheRaces/status/1302676690670243840

Persian King had been three lengths in arrears to Circus Maximus when they were third and fourth behind unbeaten Palace Pier in the Prix Jacques le Marois (also Group 1) three weeks earlier over the same trip at Deauville. This performance requires some re-alignment among the division, but it is clear that Palace Pier stands alone at the top of the mile rankings. Those three Irish fillies, Fancy Blue, Alpine Star and Peaceful, who dominated the finish of the Prix de Diane over the extended mile and a quarter at Chantilly, might prove more of a test to Palace Pier than any of yesterday’s Moulin contestants should they be given the opportunity to tackle him.

  • TS

Stat of the Day, 7th September 2020

/in /by

Saturday's pick was...

3.10 Kempton : Recovery Run @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 13/8 (Tracked leader, close up when ridden 2f out, ran on well to dispute lead close home, not quite match winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 3,  Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £7,439 to the winner...

Why?...

We'll start with the racecard...

...which, whilst not as informative as some other days, tell us that we've an in-form horse (2 wins from last three starts) who scores well on the Geegeez Speed ratings and who will be ridden by a jockey with a good recent record here at Leicester with 9 wins from 35 (25.7% SR) since 2016.

Our boy might well be 10 yrs old now, but seems to be enjoying his own personal Indian Summer, having won two of three this year to take his career record on the Flat to a more than acceptable 11 wins from 58 and that 19% strike rate has yielded the following under today's conditions...

  • 9 wins and 11 further places from 51 for trainer Ian Williams
  • 8 wins, 10 places from 38 over a 7f trip
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 11 on Good to Soft
  • 2 wins from 3 in 2020
  • 1 win plus 1 place from 3 under jockey William Buick
  • 1 win plus 1 place from 2 here at Leciester
  • and 1 win, 1 place from 2 over course and distance

And now to trainer Ian Williams, who has been very good over the years at getting horses to win back to back races on the Flat, especially when not left off the track too long and when the market deems them to have at least a fighting chance. So, basically my Ian Williams LTO winner micro-angle is to look for those sent off at 7/1 and shorter within 45 days of that last run/win and since 2014, such runners are...

...with a win ratio of almost 2 in 5 at an A/E approaching 1.5 generating over 55p in the pound profits at Betfair SP giving us grounds for optimism here today, especially as they contain the following of relevance today...

  • 36/86 (41.9%) for 58.49pts (+68%) in races worth less than £17k
  • 34/91 (37.4%) for 50.5pts (+55.5%) in handicaps
  • 16/27 (59.3%) for 26.42pts (+97.9%) at 1-10 dslr
  • 13/28 (46.4%) for 28.91pts (+103.3%) during September/October
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 26.7pts (+178%) over 6/7 furlongs
  • 5/10 (50%) for 13.77pts (+137.7%) on Good to Soft ground
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 6.74pts (+224.8%) under jockey William Buick
  • and 1 from 2 (50%) for 0.97pts (+48.5%) here at Leicester...

...whilst from the above, in sub-£17k handicaps at 1-10 dslr, they are 16 from 23 (69.6% SR) for 30.42pts (+132.3% ROI), including a perfect 6 from 6 at an A/E of 3.77 in September/October generating 19.42pts profit (+326.6% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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