Tag Archive for: Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Tuesday 19/09/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

And we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.15 Yarmouth
  • 3.25 Yarmouth
  • 4.25 Listowel
  • 7.30 Newcastle

...from all of which, I think I'll see how Forceful Speed from The Shortlist might get on in the 3.35 Redcar, a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

Ron O and Forceful Speed both won last time out and are both two from five. Stressfree won his penultimate race. Skilled Warrior and Bringbackmemories won five/six starts ago respectively, but Highwaygrey and Flight of Angels are winless in their recent formline and the latter now steps up in class, as does Bringbackmemories.

Stressfree makes a yard, a UK and a handicap debut after just three outings in France for Carlos Laffon-Parias, finishing 217 in the process and he, along with Forceful Speed and the sole filly Flight of Angels all receive a 5lb allowance as 3 yr olds.

Ron O, Skilled Warrior and Stressfree are yet to win over a similar trip, although they have won over a mile, a mile and 1m1f respectively, whilst Instant Expert says that of the three to have already raced here at Redcar, only Ron O (2 from 2) has won at the track and the lack of a 1m2f victory aside, he does seem to be well suited by conditions...

...although he is up 7lbs for that win 24 days ago, whereas Forceful Speed is only 2lbs higher than his LTO win. There doesn't seem to be too many horror stories above, win-wise, although you might think that Skilled Warrior and Flight of Angels weren't quite at Class 4 standard and it is Ron O and Forceful Speed who catch the eye here. The draw might be a factor here as those two will emerge from the lowest and highest stalls, so let's see if that could sway our decision making...

And that looks like much better news for Forceful Speed than Ron O, but the pace data suggests that if the latter can get out and set/be up with the pace, it might not be a total disaster...

...but sadly Ron O doesn't look like the type to set the tempo of a race and it's likely that Forceful Speed and Flight Of Angels will be the ones leading them out from stalls 1 & 5 respectively and we'd have to hope than the latter can tow Ron O into the race...

Summary

Forceful Speed was always going to be of interest, but I really liked Ron O until the pace/draw data cast a bit of a shadow over him. I still think he'll go well and is more than capable of winning this, but if he doesn't follow Flight of Angels early, as she tacks across, then his chance might be gone. Elsewhere Forceful Speed has the plum draw and is likely to get out sharpish, meaning he can hold the rail and take the shortest route and it's for this reason that I'm taking him at 11/4 (Hills @ 4.45pm) to beat the 7/1 (Hills) Ron O.

That said, 7/1 is a decent E/W option and I fancy Ron O to be ahead of Flight of Angels late on.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 16/09/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

14-day form...

1-year form...

course 5-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Doncaster
  • 1.58 Lingfield
  • 2.10 Navan
  • 4.40 Gowran Park
  • 5.20 Doncaster
  • 7.10 Musselburgh

The last two of the 'free' races each have a runner from my TJC Report and although it has more runners than I'm usually comfortable with, the better rated of the two is the 5.20 Doncaster, a 15-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on soft ground...

Only The Gatekeeper comes here off the back of a win, but Brunch, Empirestateofmind, Spirit Catcher (won two starts back) and Freedom Day (won three races ago) were all in the frame on their last outings.

All have raced in the last two (Spioradalta) to eight (Liberty Lane) wee and most of these ran in this grade last time out, but Pisanello steps up a class and it's a two-step rise for Titian, Freedom Day and Look Back Smiling.

That latter pair are both 3 yr olds and they receive a 4lb weight allowance here, as does Spioradalta, who once again wears cheekpieces, as does Look Back Smiling. Elsewhere Spirit Catcher wears a hood, Blue For You has a visor and both Sonny Liston & Empirestateofmind are blinkered. La Trinidad, Spioradalta and Look Back Smiling will all be ridden by claiming jockeys, but the latter pair run from 3lbs and 7lbs out of the handicap here.

All bar Sonny Liston, Liberty Lane, Spioradalta and Look Back Smiling have already won over a similar trip, but onlt La Trinidad has won over course and distance. That said, Titian's win here over 1m2f almost two years ago is the only other course success, as Instant Expert says that the field are 3 from 15 here at Doncaster...

We do have some past soft ground form, but the field have generally disappointed at Class 2. We've touched on the course/distance wins, of course and the above doesn't really inspire. It does. however, suggest that some have tried and failed several times under expected conditions with Brunch, Empirestateofmind, La Trinidad and Dutch Decoy having struggled to win at this grade, whilst Brunch and Spirit Catcher's percentages over this trip leave work to do at 3 from 24. There is, of course, the possibility that they've been unlucky or have been 'there or thereabouts' in defeat, so let's check the place stats...

...where the likes of Empirestateofmind, Titian, Pisanello and Spioradalta have performed best.

We have fifteen runners strung across the track for a straight mile and I wasn't expecting to see much of a draw bias and the stats haven't let me down in that respect...

Sadly, this doesn't get me any closer to finding a winner or an E/W bet, but I suppose those drawn lowest might have a small advantage based on the above, but I suspect it will be a case of 'pace wins the race', by which I mean the horses that has the best tactics. Those races above for the draw stats have best suited those setting the tempo from the front...

...which based on recent efforts opens the door for the likes of Spirit Catcher, Titian and The Gatekeeper....

I also suppose that if we ignore his last outing, Liberty Lane will also be keen to apply early pressure.

Summary

This looks a wide open race and I can see why Sonny Liston is the early favourite after some creditable runs in defeat. I can't back him at 9/2 or 11/2 in a 15-runner race, though. Not when he's only 1 from 12 on turf and 0 from 5 at this trip. I know he has contested better races than this, but his sole win was at Class 4 in a 7f Novice event on debut more than 26 months ago. I'm not saying he can't win, but his current odds offer me no comfort.

So, where do I stand? Well, I want to reconsider form, Instant Expert and pace...

The Gatekeeper, Brunch, Empirestateofmind, Spirit Catcher and Freedom Day appeared to be bringing the best recent form to the table, whilst the likes of Empirestateofmind, Titian, Pisanello and Spioradalta had the best place scores on Instant Expert. The pace angle pointed to Spirit Catcher, Titian, The Gatekeeper and Liberty Lane.

It's not exactly scientific, but in those three areas I've just revisited, the names of Empirestateofmind, Spirit Catcher, The Gatekeeper and Titian all appear twice, so this quartet are going to be my E/W possibles. And as of 4.15pm on Friday, my quartet were priced at 8/1, 10/1, 11/1 and 16/1 and I'd be happy to back any/all of them to make the frame. I'm not necessarily saying any are good enough to win, but who knows in such an open race?

The bookies are paying four places (5 at Sky, of course), so you can take your pick. As for the one I like best of the four; probably The Gatekeeper.

He won a similar soft ground, 1m, Class 2 handicap last time out when ridden by today's jockey Rossa Ryan for the first time and was a decent second in the 20-runner Golden Mile at Glorious Goodwood last month, when beaten by just half a length. He was first home of those drawn low and had Dutch Decoy a length and a place behind him with Sonny Liston a further two mplaces and 1.5 lengths further back.

Please Note : I'm away all weekend moving my youngest into university at Exeter (just 270 miles from home!), so I won't be around on Sunday to preview Monday's action, sorry.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 15/09/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are fairly restrictive and have sadly produced no UK qualifiers, but thankfully our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards and for Friday they are...

  • 2.25 Doncaster
  • 3.25 Downpatrick
  • 4.25 Sandown
  • 4.30 Chester
  • 5.35 Sandown

The Doncaster race is a Group 2 sprint, but I tend not to get involved with 2 yr olds too much, so I'm going to tackle the 4.25 Sandown, an 8-runner (fingers crossed they all run for E/W purposes), 4yo+, Class 2 flat handicap over a right-handed 7f on good ground...

The early market had this as a race within a race with (alphabetically) Atrium, Azano, Silver Samurai & Under The Twilight all priced at 9/2 or shorter with the other half of the field all rated 8/1 or bigger and my initial thoughts were that Hills had it spot on with who to follow, but they might not be right!

Silver Samurai was the only one win last time out, but Atrium won two starts ago and both Azano and Under The Twilight were placed on their last runs. Documenting, Azano, Mitrosonfire and Mokaatil are currently winless in six, twelve, twelve and eleven races respectively, which has to be a concern, especially for the latter trio.

Only Atrium, Documenting and Azano actually ran at Class 2 last time out with the other five all now stepping two levels from Class 4, which makes life tougher for the LTO winner/placers Silver Samurai and Under The Twilight, but they are at least running well.

Mokaatil is the only one of the eight yet to win at today's trip, but in fairness he has yet to race over 7f, despite 67 previous outings. He's far better (7 from 37) over 5f than he is over 6f (2 from 30), so I think 7f might be a stretch for him especially from 2lbs out of the handicap, although he is the only previous course winner, having landed a Class 3 handicap over 5f just over a year ago.

All eight have been seen fairly recently with Mitrosonfire (9 days) and Priscilla's Wish (42 days) the quickest turned back out/longest rested, whilst Atrium is the sole headgear-wearer, sporting cheekpieces for the fourth race in a row, including a 7f win at Doncaster on his penultimate outing.

Instant Expert suggests that Azano might well be the weakest of the four market principals...

...and you'd not rush out to back him if that data was all you had to work with! His win record on good ground, at Class 2 and over 7f are frankly lamentable, but none of these scream Class 2 runner, so let's have a look at Class 3 form...

...which still isn't a good look for Azano! Priscilla's Wish is interesting here with a Class 3 win and a 6 from 18 record over today's trip. She was fourth at Newmarket last time out, but has two wins and a runner-up finish from seven starts this year. Atrium and Silver Samurai have the best records on good ground and the former has 3 wins from 7 over this trip.

The draw stats here over 7f at Sandown would suggest that the runners drawn in stalls 2 to 7 have an advantage over those drawn at the extremities...

...which might not be the best news for Silver Samurai in stall 1 and much might rest on how he gets away/involved here. Recently he has tended to race towards the back of the field, as have many of the field if truth be told...

...and if the above is anything to go by, Atrium might well be allowed to grab a soft early lead and dominate the race from the front and according to the pace/draw heat map, he's the best placed of all here, if he leads from a relatively high draw...

Summary

Of the quartet that I (and the early market) thought be the ones to focus on, Silver Samurai & Azano had poor scores on Instant Expert and all bar Azano look like being unsuited by being held up. Azano looks like being able to dictate the pace of the contest here and that should ensure that he makes the frame, but he wouldn't be an obvious winner based on past form under these conditions and at odds ranging from 7/2 to 9/2, I don't think there's much value in either of the four 'originals'.

I'll not be backing any of these to win, but if I was to play here, I might just have a small (and I mean small) E/W flutter on Priscilla's Wish. She has been held up in her last two outings but has also been known to race more prominently, she's not too badly drawn and certainly gets the trip. I won't be risking much money, but at 10/1, she could well be the E/W answer.

Good Luck!

Racing Insights, Thursday 14/09/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.25 Epsom
  • 3.35 Doncaster
  • 4.50 Naas
  • 5.00 Ffos Las
  • 5.35 Ffos Las

...and with an £82k, Class 1 contest on the free list, it would be remiss of me not to cover the Betfred Park Hill Fillies Stakes aka the 3.35 Doncaster. It's a 10-runner, Group 2 flat contest for fillies and mares aged 3 or over and they'll tackle a left-handed 1m6½f on good to soft/soft ground. Here's the card...

On results alone, Night Sparkle brings the best set of recent figures to the table, having won her last three on the Flat (last four overall), but she's the only class mover here, as she steps up from Class 3 for her debut for Andrew Balding's yard. Elsewhere, Sumo Sam made all to land the Gr2 Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood over 1m6f on heavy ground, whilst Ching Shih, Divine Jewel and One Evening were all Class 1 runners-up with Crack of Light also making the frame on her last run. Those four ran at G3, Listed, Listed & Listed class respectively.

We've mentioned that Night Sparkle is up in class for her yard debut already, but I should add that Shamwari wears cheekpieces for the first time and she receives a useful 10lb weight allowance as one of five three year olds in the race, along with Boogie Woogie, Crack of Light, Lmay and Sumo Sam, although the latter bears a 3lb penalty for that excellent win six weeks ago, but still gets 7lbs from most of the field.

That win was 40 days ago and whilst some of the others appear to have been off track longer, those days since last run don't include overseas contests. If we include them, then Sumo Sam's 40-day rest is the longest of the ten runners, whilst Divine Jewel is the quickest back out, 12 days after a runner-up finish at Chester and her record over similar trips to this one is the best on offer today, according to Instant Expert...

In fairness, many of these are untried/untested at this longer trip, but both Night Sparkle and Sumo Sam have picked up wins under similar circumstances, whilst the place data looks like this...

...where only Lmay and possibly Golden Lyra look a little out of their depth/comfort zones. Lmay will be drawn widest of all ten runners, but I'm not convinced that the draw should play too big a role in a race of around a mile and three quarters, but we should always check the data, just in case...

...which is interesting. I'd not expected such a disparity from those drawn lowest, but the above is backed up by the PRB3 figures, which would appear to favour those drawn 4 or higher...

...although the places stats are less conclusive in that direction...

...whilst if we home in on the actual trip of this race, we're then told that front-runners haven't fared too well either...

...which doesn't bode well for the likes of Night Sparkle and/or Boogie Woogie if their recent outings are anything to go by...

...but if truth be told, not many of this field come out well on the pace/draw combo...

Those in the centre do seem to have the best of it, but only Golden Lyra, Boogie Woogie and Nighy Sparkle look out of it.

Summary

For a race of this 'quality' (although I suspect this is a poor renewal), we've not had much help from the data and it may well revert back to form and that unquantifable element : 'gut feeling' and my gut feeling here is that Sumo Sam, One Evening and Ching Shih would be the ones most likely to succeed.

The bookies agree to an extent, as that trio are 4/1, 7/1 and 15/2 respectively and with some firms paying four places, I'd also be interested in Crack of Light at 12/1, but it's not a race that I'll investing much time or money in/on.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 13/09/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.40 Bath
  • 2.05 Carlisle
  • 3.05 Tramore
  • 4.10 Uttoxeter
  • 4.40 Punchestown
  • 7.45 Southwell

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated just one runner and that's based on course 5-year handicap form...

The highest rated of the UK races above is the sole jumps contest, so we're off to Staffordshire for the 4.10 Uttoxeter, an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed two miles on good to soft/soft ground...

Enthused won last time out and has two wins and four places from his last six outings, whilst Simply Red has three wins and two places from her last seven, including winning her last two races. Prince Escalus is 2 from 7 and Call Me Rocky is 2 from 4, but Hurricane Ali and Boom Boom Boom are winless in their last eight and seven respectively.

Most of the field have raced in the last 6-38 days, but Rathmacknee and top-weight Prince Escalus might be excused forneeding the run after breaks of 138 & 164 days, although the latter has finished 1314 after breaks of 110-272 days!

Prince Escalus is one of just two runners not stepping up in class today, Boom Boom Boom being the other and whilst half of the field are up from Class 3, LTO winners Simply Red and Enthused are up two classes.

The latter is however one of two (along with Hurricane Ali) to have already scored over course and distance, whilst all bar Rathmacknee (yard debut today) and Boom Boom Boom have won over a similar trip elsewhere and those course/distance wins are shown below in Instant Expert below, but it's hardly an inspiring graphic...

There has been some limited success on this going, but the four to have tackled Class 2 racing are a combined 0 from 12. We knew we had two course winners and four to have prevailed over this trip. With regards to Class, it might be worth pointing out that four of these have won at Class 3; Glorious Zoff (1 from 5), Hurricane Ali (2/12), Prince Escalus (4/8) and Rathmacknee (1/4), with the Prince having the best record.

The place stats to go with the above graphic look like this...

...where again Prince Escalus looks good at Class 3, but the likes of Boom Boom Boom, Call Me Rocky and Rathmacknee look very vulnerable and I'd probably discount them at this point.

The pace data for similar past races suggests that horses willing to set the pace are rewarded more often than those who don't...

...which would, when looking at the field's more recent efforts, seem to be another tick against the name of Prince Escalus...

...whilst just over the last two races, we end up with the Prince and the two form horses...

...and I think that these are the trio I'd want to be focusing on for this one.

Summary

The likelihood is that despite stepping up two classes, Simply Red & Enthused are likely to be too good for Prince Escalus.

He does go well after a break, but it's always a worry when a horse might need a run. Off a mark on 132, he's some 10lbs higher than his last hurdles win, but his last two wins over fences were off 133 & 134, so this mark isn't beyond him. I'm not sure that he can beat the other two, but at 10/1, I'd be happy to back him each way.

The early market can't split the other pair as 3/1 jt favs and there probably won't be much between them, but if pushed for a winner, I'd probably just side with the course and distance winner Enthused.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 12/09/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...where all those rated at 10 or higher are at least worth a second glance and we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 1.40 Leicester
  • 4.15 Catterick
  • 5.15 Laytown
  • 5.25 Galway
  • 7.25 Galway

I do, where possible, try to 'marry up' the daily free feature with the free racecard list and that's actually possible today, as 11-rated on The Shortlist Vadamiah runs in the 4.15 Catterick (as does 9-rated Texas Man of course), a 9-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good/good to soft ground...

Despite the disparity on the SR figures, this looks a tight, competitive affair, where our feature horse Vadamiah (one of two females in the race) carries top weight, but she does drop three classes here after finishing well down the field (although only 3.5 lengths down) in a £50k Class 2 handicap at the Ebor meeting three weeks ago. Fellow female Havagomecca drops down one class here, as do Castin and Albegone.

Birkenhead steps up a class after back to back runner-up finishes, a pair of results matched by Murbih and with no LTO winners in the field, these two bring the best form to the table, but Papa Don't Preach, Murbih and Jojo Rabbit are winless in 8, 13 and 12 respectively and all three have pretty dismal win records on turf.

Castan is the sole 3 yr old in the field and gets a 1lb allowance for that and he's one of five previous course and distance winners here. All nine have won at least once at this trip and only Havagomecca, Papa Don't Preach, Murbih and Jojo Rabbit have yet to win here at Catterick. Mind you, that last trio who are on long losing runs are 0 from 10, 0 from 13 and 1 from 17 respectively on the Flat, so a win here would be a surprise!

No fitness issues with them all having raced in the last month or so, but Murbih did run on Saturday and although it's a short turnaround, that was his best effort for some time. Instant Expert highlights the poor Flat win records of this trio and also shows why Vadamiah and Texas Man are on The Shortlist...

There's really not a great deal to write home about there with possibly only the two shortlisted runners and Castan emerging with much credit and even the latter has struggled on the going. When i said this might be tight/competitive, I didn't actually say that it was a decent quality, though! Perhaps the place stats will show some of these in a better light...

Well, they say that Castan is better on the going than at first suggested, but the others who looked best on the win stats haven't really enhanced their positions and have been caught up by some of the others. I've seen enough about Papa Don't Preach and Jojo Rabbit to discount them from my thoughts now, though. They're both drawn middle to high here in a race that doesn't (in my opinion) display any real bias or advantage from a stalls positioning...

..but it's one where the emphasis is clearly on early speed as this illustrates only too well...

...and with this field's recent efforts looking like this...

...you'd have to think that Vadamiah would have an excellent chance of grabbing the lead and therefore running on for at least a place and I think if we just look at the field's last two outings we'll get a more realistic view of how they might break...

Summary

It's probably easier if I start by saying who I don't really fancy here! I already ruled out Papa Don't Preach and Jojo Rabbit at an early point and I think that pace will be the undoing for Texas Man and Havagomecca's chances of landing this and that's probably the same for Birkenhead. He's in good nick, but doesn't win often enough and with more than half the field setting off quicker than him, a place is his best shot.

Of the five ahead of him, none are really prolific, but Vadamiah loves it here. Murbih doesn't win on grass and I think Castan is the most interesting of all of them. He may only be 2 from 12 on Turf, but has made the frame seven times, all his best runs have been at this trip and the going will suit him. He has one win and one place from three efforts over course and distance and at 10/1 looks a decent E/W punt for me.

As for a winner? Stick a pin in the card! If pushed Vadamiah's course record and his all-out pace profile probably tip the balance his way, but is he a 10/3 shot here? I'd expected double that, so I'll leave the win bet alone on value, but I expect him to go well.

Racing Insights, Monday 11/09/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.55 Brighton
  • 3.55 Galway
  • 4.30 Galway
  • 5.00 Newton Abbot

I don't particularly like either of the two UK races above, so I'll be taking a look at the day's highest rated race, the sole Class 2 contest in the UK, the 4.25 Newton Abbot. This is an 8-runner handicap hurdle for 4yr olds and older and the trip is a left-handed 3m2½f on good/good to soft ground...

Go Chique was a winner last time out (and is 2 from 5) and Slate Lane comes here seeking a hat-trick after winning both his UK starts despite showing little in Ireland. Mr Yeats has been the runner-up in each of his last four, whilst Tommie Beau has won two from four. Sammylou looks weak on the back of six straight losses.

Only Mr Yeats (now visored for the first time) and Valentino ran in this grade last time, although the latter hasn't raced for ten months with Tommie Beau and Hunting Percival both now stepping up a level. Go Chique, Presenting Yeats and Sammylou are all up two classes, whilst Slate Lane's win at Bangor last month was at Class 5, although he did win at Class 4 two starts ago. This will be his second effort in handicap company after winning on debut at Bangorand he's up in trip and weight here.

Aside from Valentino's ten month absence, the field have all raced in the last five weeks or so and Slate Lane is the only one yet to win at a similar trip to this one. Mr Yeats, Valentino and Presenting Yeats and Sammylou have all won over this type of trip here at Newton Abbot already, whilst Tommie Beau has won a 3m2f chase here as recently as the end of May.

Much of the above and more is covered by Instant Expert, of course...

...where the win stats show Tommie Beau in the best light, whilst Presenting Yeats looks weakest. We can't however ignore the fact that the latter is now rated 16lbs higher than his last hurdle win, but in his defence, that was back in May 2022 and he's been chasing mainly since then and did win over fences off 127 in June! Slate Lane and Mr Yeats are also both considerably higher in the weights than their last hurdles successes. Aside from Presenting Yeats generally weak stats, there aren't too many negatives on those win percentages and if you're an E/W or place punter, the place data suggests Mr Yeats might well be of interest to you...

Today's free feature is the pace element of the racecard and this shows how the field have approached their most recent outings. They are awarded a score of 4 if they led, 3 for a prominent position, 2 for racing in mid-division and 1 for a hold-up run and this group's most recent efforts look like this...

...with top weight and sole mare, Go Chique expected to set the pace with Sammylou a confirmed hold-up type. Presenting Yeats' pace stats are a little misleading though. He has a 4 from LTO, but 3 x 1's before that, so let me briefly explain that he is a front-runner, but is often reluctant to race. So, if he gets away with the others (which he doesn't often enough), he'll probably head the filed early, but the stats suggest he'll miss the break and be slow away, which according to our Pace Analyser could be the end of his chances here...

Summary

My shortlist for the contest doesn't totally tie in with the early market, but that doesn't worry too much, they can't be right all the time!

If I was to split the field in half, I'd want to be siding with (in alphabetical order) Go Chique, Mr Yeats, Slate Lane and Tommie Beau and this quartet are currently (3.20pm on Sunday!) priced at 11/1, 8/1, 4/9 fav and 18/1 respectively and based on his last two runs, Slate Lane is probably the one to beat.

He is however, up in trip by 3f, up three classes and up 10lbs and that doesn't scream 4/9 fav to me, especially when the next in the market is 8/1! I'm not saying he can't/won't win, but I can't be backing him at those odds.

I am, however interested in the other three and I think their prices offer us a good chance of some E/W success with Tommie Beau in particular looking overpriced.

Racing Insights, Saturday 09/09/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

1-year form...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.45 Leopardstown
  • 2.00 Ascot
  • 2.05 Thirsk
  • 2.10 Kempton
  • 3.35 Haydock
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton

...and from the free feature and the free races, there's a UK Group 1 contest (too many runners for my liking) and a couple of Class 2 handicaps, so let's tackle one of those to see how Charlie Appleby's likely favourite Victory Dance might fare in the 3.10 Ascot, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo flat handicap over a right handed 1m4f on good ground...

Gallant Lion has won his last four and overactive comes here on a hat-trick, so they're the ones in the best form, but Victory Dance is 12133 from his five UK starts and Alsakib is 2113 from his four outings, so plenty arrive here in good nick with only Struth struggling to win, having lost seven on the bounce.

Top weight Victory Dance makes a handicap debut here and wears blinkers for the first time, but does drop down a class. Gallant Lion and Dancing In Paris are both up one class and Overactive is up two levels, whilst Benacre wears cheekpieces for the first time.

We should have no fitness issues with all having raced in the last 7-37 days, but we've no previous course winners (mind you, only Struth & Benacre) have been here and only three (Struth, Overactive & True Legend) have won over a similar trip as shown on Instant Expert...

...where Struth looks very weak. Most have won on good ground already, but only Alsakib has won in the grade although I should point out that Victory Dance has won a Listed race. Overactive comes here on a hat-trick after back to backs over this kind of trip, but he is used to slightly quicker ground. That said, it is very dry right now. Let's just have a quick look at the place stats before checking any possible effect of the draw...

Struth remains weak here and after a run of seven defeats, I suspect this now becomes number eight. There's not a lot of data there, but most of it is positive so I'll keep an open mind prior to checking the draw analyser, which suggests that those drawn lowest might struggle...

...whilst our pace analyser says that those races above have suited those runners willing to set the pace or those wanting to hang back for a late run, whilst those caught between the two stools have come off worst...

and the pace/draw combinations look like this...

...suggestiong that thos drawn lowest will need to get a shift on early doors to stand much chance, whilst those drawn highest can sit further back for longest. We know the draw already and we log the pace scores from each horse's run, so we can create a pace/draw heat map for this race...

...where the high drawn mid-division runner would be Victory Dance and possibly True Legend, who would also score well as a hold-up horse. Gallant Lion and Struth play the role of mid-drawn mid-div runners, another successful combination.

Summary

Featured runner Victory Dance ticks boxes on form and ability, his trainer/jockey do really well together and he looks to have the ideal pace/draw profile for this race. He's best priced at 4/1 right now and that's probably as good as I'd hoped for and I don't see many of these beating him. Alsakib would be a possible challenger here, based on form, although the pace/draw is doing him no favours. He's going to be thereabouts, as is Overactive who might well chase Victory Dance in the early stages.

Alsakib is too shot to back E/W at 9/2, but the 7/1 and drifting about Overactive is tempting, despite his step up in class. One at bigger odds who might do better than expected could be widest-drawn hold-up type True Legend. He didn't see 1m6f out last time at York, but was previously in good form over trips like today's and at 10/1 could be an E/W play.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 08/09/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for Friday, but I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.00 Ascot
  • 4.25 Down Royal
  • 5.20 Ascot
  • 5.30 Down Royal
  • 5.40 Newcastle
  • 9.00 Kempton

...the best of which looks like being the 5.20 Ascot, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a straight 7f on good ground...

No recent LTO winners here, although Vermilion did score when last seen some 349 days ago, but the form horse is surely Kimnkate who has finished 1121212 since adopting blinkers in June of this year. Gulmarg, Metahorse and Boy Browning were also placed on their last runs, although both Gulmarg and Metahorse haven't won for a while (both have lost 10 in a row!) with the same applying to Boy Browning (winless in 6), whilst the lightly raced filly, Liberty is a three-race maiden.

She now makes her handicap debut off a mark of 76 and the returning Vermilion also debuts in handicap contests here, but he's rated at 83. He does, however drop a class, whilst Liberty steps up a class. Boy Browning, Starlight Nation and De Bruyne are also up in class with Pastiche, Kimnkate & Zouzanna dropping down.

We know Vermilion has been off for nearly a year, but there shouldn't be any fitmess issues with the others, who aside from Starlight Nation (off 73 days), have all raced in the last two to six weeks. None of the field have won here before, but all bar Havana Pusey, Zouzanna, Boy Browning, Liberty (obviously) and De Bruyne have at least won over today's trip, as shown on Instant Expert...

...where off an admittedly small number of runs, Pastiche is the eye-catcher. Metahorse and Gulmarg seem to have struggled to win at this grade, but quite a few of these have done well at the trip. The place stats are very interesting, though, as Gulmarg and Metahorse are regular Class 4 placers, so maybe they've been unlucky?

...with this quintet the ones with the best overall profile...

These runners are drawn in stalls 3, 4, 5, 7 & 11, but over a straight sprint on good ground there shouldn't be much in the draw and the stats say...

...that there really isn't much in it, so no real advantage to be gained from any of this field, meaning that it might well come down to race tactics aka pace and those races above have gone as follows...

Sadly, we've not got much assistance there either if truth be told. The place stats are very similar across the board and it almost seems strange that hold-up horses do as well as the others. I'll show you how this group have approached their last few races, even if we're not going to use the data...

There should be plenty of early pace with Liberty, Metahorse, Vermilion, Boy Browning and Zouzanna all keen to get on with things here.

Summary

Short and possibly not very sweet today. We've not really got much from pace/draw, but we know which horses are in good form and which horses stood out on Instant Expert and whilst I'm not going to be going in too heavily after not using the pace/draw stats, my money would be for Kimnkate. She has been a revelation since being fitted with blinkers and although up 2lbs here, she looks the one to beat. She's 12121 under today's jockey and 5/1 looks fair enough.

Elsewhere, I'd expect the likes of Metahorse, Gulmarg and Pastiche to be involved, but all are too short to back E/W, whilst those priced at 8's or bigger make little appeal. Sometimes it's best to keep your money in your pocket.

Racing Insights, Thursday 07/09/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.40 Salisbury
  • 5.35 Carlisle
  • 5.45 Wolverhampton
  • 5.55 Clonmel
  • 7.15 Wolverhampton

I'm going to do things in a slightly different order today and I've no idea where it will take me/us! The whole premise of my column is that I put my actions into print in real time and sometimes I end up with nothing. This is perfectly fine, because if there's no bet you like, place no bet and move on!

The highest rated of the four UK races above is the 7.15 Wolverhampton and it also has the most Instant Expert data. The race itself is race 32 of this year's Racing League and it's an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m½f on standard tapeta and here's how the place data for Instant Expert looks for this race...

...where based on overall form, this trio catch the eye most...

...not withstanding that the first of the three has yet to win on the A/W, but has made the frame in all four career starts, whilst the other two are higher in the weights than their last A/W successes, but let's look at the whole card now...

We have no LTO winners here, but all bar Koy Roy and Cry Havoc have a win in their recent form line although both were placed on their latest outings. What's The Story has made the frame in each of his last three and Farasi Lane, Parlando were also placed last time out. There's no real standout on form and we've a real lack of past course/distance success too.

The field have 2 wins and 3 further places from 20 visits to Wolverhampton and have made the frame in 61 of 157 (38.9%) contests over 1m to 1m1f, winning 21 times at a rate of just 13.4, but Harswell Duke did win over this trip at Nottingham on soft ground in October of last year and Young Fire was a Class 5 course and distance winner here back in March.

Parlando last raced a week ago and United Front was seen ten days back, but the remainder have all had two to six weeks rest since their last efforts, from which five are now racing at a different class with Lir Speciale & United Front dropping down a level from Class 2 with Young Fire and the sole female, Cry Havoc both up one class. Night Arc is up two classes after finishing seventh at Newmarket shortly after winning a Class 4 contest, so I'm not sure what to make of him, other than to say he's inconsistent?

We've seen the place data from Instant Expert, but to complete that picture, here's the win percentages...

Not a lot to crow about there, but Lir Speciale is proven in this grade, whilst Hafeet Alain looks generally weak in this context. What's The Story and Young Fire have struggled on standard going with the latter also not faring too well at Class 3, although the former's place stats are far better. Perhaps he's more of a placer than a winner?

The draw has placed the IE weak-looking Hafeet Alain and the double-class riser Night Arc at opposite ends of the stalls, but the general draw data for similar handicaps over the last five years suggests there's not a great deal to be gained from stalls positions...

...although the actually stall-by-stall data & the PRB3 figures do say that those drawn higher than stall nine have tended to struggle and that makes sense, having to travel wider and/or further...

...so that might affect United Front's chances from stall ten. His best bet here in that case is to try and get out sharpish and keep in touch with the pack, as those races above haven't exactly been kind to hold-up horses...

...which doesn't bode well for the likes of Cry Havoc & Young Fire based on recent evidence...

If I was to discount that pair from my list of potential winners, based on pace alone and then remove United Front & Night Arc based on the draw, that leaves me with seven. Hafeet Alain looked weakest on Instant Expert and Cry Havoc is winless in seven. Although What's the Story has made the frame in half of his ten A/W starts, he has won just once, way back in June 2018 and has lost eight on the bounce since then, of which five were on tapeta.

Summary

I'm not saying that the discards can't make the frame, but I've enough reasons not to back any of them for the win, leaving just Lir Royale, Koy Koy, Harswell Duke, Farasi Lane and Parlando as potential winners.

And of those, Lir Speciale would be my pick. His A/W record reads 23311, of which he is 311 at Class 3 and although he's up in trip here, the reports from his last two outings/wins on the A/W read...pressed leader, led over 2f out, ran on well inside final furlong and good headway on inside over 2f out, led over 1f out, ran on well so the trip shouldn't necessarily be an issue here.

Hills are paying four places on this one and at 8/1, he'd be an ideal E/W bet if you're not entirely convinced about his win credentials. 8/1 is my general/nominal cut-off point for E/W bets, so that would currently discount the 5/1 What's The Story and the 6/1 United Front from my original 'trio of interest', but I'm happy to take the 9/1 about Parlando.

Others of possible interest would include Farasi Lane at 8/1 and Koy Koy at 12's.

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 06/09/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.40 Bath
  • 4.39 Hexham
  • 4.50 Lingfield
  • 5.04 Cork
  • 5.39 Cork
  • 7.18 Hexham

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following quartet of runners for me to consider...

14-day form...

1-year course form...

5-year course form...

It's a pretty sire looking day of racing on Wednesday if truth be told. There are 36 UK races across six meetings and the 'best' on offer is half a dozen Class 4 encounters; one of which containing a runner from the TS report, so we're going to have a quick (and it will be quick) look at Nicky Richards' Kajaki and the other horses in the 5.45 Hexham, an 11-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m4f (near enough 2m5f after rail movements) on good ground...

No LTO winners here, but Copper Beach and Malangen made the frame. Belvedere Blast was pulled up, but had won his previous three outings, whilst only Dallas des Pictons, Onward Route and Cousu Main have lost each of their last five.

Top weight Punxsutawney Phil steps up a class here, but both City Derby & Calum Gilhooley are down one level, whilst Belvedere blast & Dallas Des Pictons are aided by a double drop in class.

Four of the field ran 46 days ago and the remainder have all been seen in the last 11 to 33 days, so no fitness excuses here for a field in which only Onward Route, Cousu Main and Calum Gilhooley are yet to win at a similar trip, whilst three horses (Belvedere Blast, Fenna's Loss & Onward Route) have all won here previously; the former over 2m½f and the other pair are course and distance winners.

And now over to Instant Expert...

...where aside from a poor win record at Class 4, Belvedere Blast looks useful. Fenna's Loss, Calum Gilhooley and Kajaki look consistent enough and my main concerns are about Punxsutawney Phil & City Derby on good grounds, Belverdere Blast, Onward Route, Copper Beach, Cousu Main and Malangen at Class 4, Dallas Des Pictons, Onward Route and Cousu Main at the trip plus Copper Beach & City Derby for being considerably higher in the weights than their last winning marks.

Past races here at Hexham have suggested that the further forward a horse runs, the greater chance of making the frame and prominent/leading runners also stand the best chance(s) of winning...

...which based on the field's last few runs...

...would steer you towards the top four on that list and then also possibly the next three for a chance of making the frame. To be honest this race doesn't particularly lend itself too well to finding a winner, although Belvedere Blast was in great form prior to being pulled up last time out. He scored well enough on Instant Expert and is likely to be up with the pace, but before I make a decision, I want to go back to Instant Expert and look at the place stats...

...and the standouts there would seem to be Copper Beach, Belvedere Blast and Onward Route.

Summary

In a tricky/unappealing race, I think I like Belvedere Blast most, but wouldn't want to put too much money down. Only Hills were open at 4.40pm and they were offering 5/1, which isn't generous but probably about right.

Copper Beach & Onward Route both looked good on place stats and the former is another 5/1 shot who might end up being the main challenger to the selection. As for Onward Route, he's a bit hit and miss, but there's definitely a placer in there if he's in the right shape/mood, but I think I'd want at least 12/1 before risking any of my cash and he's currently only 10's.

Onward Route was widely available at 12/1 on Wednesday morning, and had been 16/1 with PP/Betfair for a while.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 05/09/23

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Apologies for there being no preview of Monday's action, I was unwell over the weekend (even too ill to go for a beer after football!) and spent most of Saturday evening and Sunday in bed, but I feel just about well enough to put something together for Tuesday, so back to it!

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where a good half dozen would be of most obvious interest initially. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 1.50 Bangor
  • 3.20 Goodwood
  • 3.55 Goodwood
  • 7.15 Hamilton

The best of that quartet of free races would appear to be the first of the ones from Goodwood, featuring last year's winner Aggagio who scores 15 on The Shortlist, so it's probably the right decision to cover the 3.20 Goodwood, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed two miles on good to soft ground...

Temporize won last time out and has made the top three in five of his six, as has Novel Legend who has won three of his last seven. Grand Providence has won two of her six career starts and has never been out of the first three home, but Rhythmic Intent is winless in his last ten starts and Merveillo is a 12-race maiden, mainly over hurdles.

Top weight Earlofthecotswolds makes a second handicap outing and Rhythmic Intent, Aggagio, Pona Aelius and Grand Providence all step up a class. The card says Merveillo is up three classes, but that's from a recent hurdles outing. His last flat run was at this grade, but back in May 2022!

Only Rhytmic Intent, Merveillo (obviously) and Temporize are yet to win over this trip, but the latter did win here over 2m4½f last time out, whilst Vino Victrix, Pons Aelius and Aggagio are all course and distance winners. The latter won this race last year, of course and has finished 1152 in four efforts over track and trip. Pons Aelius represents the Johnstons who trained the winner of this race in 2018, 2019 and 2021.

Earlofthecotswolds last raced 88 days ago and Novel legend has had 45 days rest, but the remainder have all raced in the last month or so, but have all had at least 11 days recovery time. Bottom weight Grand Providence is the sole 3 yr old in the field and receives a hefty 11lbs allowance here.

As you'd expect from his place on The Shortlist, last year's winner Aggagio scores well on Instant Expert, but he's not the only runner with plenty of 'green', as Vino Victrix and Temporize amongst others look well suited too...

Although there's a fair chunk of 'red' on there too, the only alarming stat is Rhythmic Intent's 1 win from 16 in this grade, so I'd say it was fair to assume he'd been tried, tested and failed. He's not for me, despite a mark 6lbs lower than his last win. The three horses drawn highest are carrying six to ten pounds more than their own last wins, which might make life more difficult, although the draw shouldn't.

Stats do suggest that those drawn highest haven't gone as well as others...

...but I'm not convinced that the draw can cause you to lose over a two mile trip, but race tactics might. Those races above haven't been too kind to pacemakers or hold-up types with the key being to be close to the pace without setting it...

...which, based on recent endeavours, might not bode well for Aggagio or the already written-off Merveillo...

Summary

It's hard to look anywhere other than the form horses, Novel Legend and Temporize and this is reflected in the market where they are 5/2 fav and 4/1 2nd fav respectively and they certainly look the ones to beat. As for the places, Pons Aelius is sure to be there or thereabouts, but I do like the 3yr old filly Grand Providence. She's yet to run a bad race, gets a hefty weight allowance and did beat Temporize in July, albeit by a neck and she's 4lbs worse off here.

Racing Insights, Saturday 02/09/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

30-day form...

1-year form...

course 5-year form...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.40 Navan
  • 3.38 Sandown
  • 3.50 Beverley
  • 4.00 Navan
  • 4.45 Sandown
  • 5.45 Chelmsford

The Sandown race from the free list is the highest rated of the races above, but 2yo contests really aren't my bag, but the preceding race on that card is the 'next best'. The in-form Beckett/Ryan trainer/jockey combo team up with Lord Protector and although the field is a little bigger than I'm comfortable with, there's the prospect of some E/W action with most bookies paying four places (some go five) in the 3.00 Sandown, a 14-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f (after 18yds rail movement) on good to firm ground...

Somewhat surprisingly for a big field in a decent standard of handicap, none of these runners even made the frame last time out and only Eagle's Way (4 wins), Lord Protector (1), Andaleep (1), Kitsune Power (1), Skysail (2) and Baltic Voyage (1) have landed any of their last six contests.

The entire field bar Great Max (who debuts for Michael Bell here), Dashing Roger and Skysail have however previously won over today's trip, whilst Lord Protector, Andaleep and Dual Identity are former course and distance winners. Dashing Roger has also won here at Sandown, landing a one mile, Class 3 handicap here in late May 2021.

All bar Groundbreaker have raced in the last seven weeks, but at 86 days, even he shouldn't be too rusty here after a recent wind op. Dashing Roger drops down a class today afteer being well beaten in a Group 2 at Ascot, but Stay Well, Great Max and Skysail are all up from Class 3, but the latter (along with Baltic Voyage) does at least get a 6lb weight allowance as a 3 yr old.

Instant Expert says that Andaleep should relish conditions here...

...even if he is winless at Class 2. Plenty of his rivals (inc Certain Lad, Lord Protector, Stay Well & Dashing Roger) have a string of defeats at this level and Certain Lad also has a poor win record over today's trip, but he is now 7lbs lower than his last win, whilst most of his rivals are still running off higher marks than their on last successes, although Dashing Roger's last Flat win was off 14lbs higher than today's mark. That said, that win was over two years ago and he's finished 070700537 since.

As I might be looking for an E/W pick today, let's have a quick look at the place stats before considering any possible effects of pace/draw...

...where the following are of the most obvious immediate interest...

...not withstanding Kitsune Power's relatively weak record in this grade. He's drawn low in stall 4 here and although 1m2f is plenty of distance to undo a good/bad draw, those drawn lowest have seemed to have a slight advantage...

I wouldn't say that the draw bias was big enough to persuade/dissuade me when it comes to a selection, so I suspect/hope the pace stats offer me more assistance...

Those paint a much clearer picture of what might be required her with those racing prominently or leading winning 68% of the races from less than 35% of the runners and also faring better on the places. Hold-up horses have really struggled here in the past, which doesn't look like great news for Kitsune Power and Dual Identity if their last few races are anything to go by...

If we combine pace and draw, the heat map looks like this...

...with Lord Protector and Eagle's Way the one making most appeal.

Summary

This is a poor contest for a Class 2 handicap in my opinion with the field only having made the frame a combined 18 times from 91 Class 2 races, a pretty poor strike rate of 19.78%, with only 6 (6.6%) wins. It's a Class 3 race in all but name and on that basis alone, that's another tick for Lord Protector and Eagle's Way, who also made most appeal on the pace/draw heat map.

Eagle's Way was also one of the ones I highlighted on Instant Expert and with four wins and a runner-up finish from his last six outings, he's the one to beat here in my opinion. He's currently 7/1 with Corals and appears to be drifting, so he might even become an E/W pick. Lord Protector is a full point shorter in the market and although I expect him to go well, I don't tend to place E/W bets at 6/1, so he'd need to drift too for me to get involved.

If I was to highlight any of the double-digit odds runners who might run better than their price, I'd probably suggest the likes of Certain Lad and Andaleep at 16's and 14's respectively and they might be reasonable E/W punts if your bookie is paying five places.

Racing Insights, Friday 01/09/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.20 Thirsk
  • 4.08 Fontwell
  • 4.45 Ffos Las
  • 5.00 Down Royal
  • 6.43 Salisbury
  • 7.43 Salisbury

...and I think it makes sense to look at Ready Freddie Go from the H4C report, who runs in the first of our free races, the 3.20 Thirsk. It's a 12-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good ground...

Only Tinto comes here off the back of a win, but Bay Breeze won his penultimate race, Fast And Loose was third LTO and Rock Opera's last three results read 122, but he is now returning from a 14-month break, so could very well need the run!

Brazen Bolt won six races ago and feature horse Ready Freddie Go has a win and a place from his last three, but seven of this field are without a win in their recent form lines.

I said Rock Opera might need a run on his second handicap outing after a 14-month absence and that might also apply to Ingra Tor and Pendleton after breaks of 144 and 349 days respectively, during which time the latter has moved yards and now makes a debut for Julie Camacho.

Only Ready Freddie Go, Tinto and Fast And Loose ran at Class 3 last time out, as the bottom three on the card (Rock Opera, Khabib & last year's winner of this race, Runninwild) all step up from Class 4 with the remaining six runners all dropping down from Class 2.

By winning this race last year, Runninwild is one of three (along with Tinto & Bay Breeze) former course and distance winners. As you'd expect from his place on the H4C report, Ready Freddie Go is a past Thirsk winner, having landed 4 of his 5 races over 5f, but he's one of just three (along with Rock Opera & Khabib) yet to win at 6f, as shown on Instant Expert...

And whilst the above doesn't necessarily guide me to a winner or even an E/W bet, it does mark the card for me regarding the likes of Pendleton (going/class/distance), Gulliver (going/class/distance), Fast And Loose (going/class/distance) and Khabib (going/course/distance) to the extent that I won't be backing any of them to buck the trend and win here and for simplicity's sake, I've removed them before looking at place stats...

...where aside from Ingra Tor's relatively poor record over 6f , there's little to cause me any discomfort. Interestingly, only last year's winner Runninwild runs off a mark lower than his last win, but that's probably because he's 0 from 6 since that win here a year ago. That said, his place data is very strong. He's drawn in stall 3 today and won from stall 4 last year, but our draw analyser suggests that those drawn highest have the best chances here...

...which allied to the PRB3 figures...

...might leave me with egg on my face if Gulliver and Fast And Loose go well from stalls 9 & 10! If we then consider how those races above were actually won, you'll probably not be too surprised to hear that leaders go well over a straight 6f on good ground, whilst hold-up horses have fared the worst as is generally the case in such contests...

...which sadly for me, again suggests that Fast And Loose possibly shouldn't have been discarded...

...whilst in draw order, we have...

...pointing to Fast And Loose being best placed on both draw and pace with feature horse Ready Freddie Go also looking useful.

Summary

The Pace/Draw data suggests that Fast And Loose is a major player, but he has only won once in fourteen attempts and represents poor value to me at 5/1. I've no doubt that he'll be in the mix with such a good pace/draw profile and the fact that he has made the frame in 9 of those 14 starts, but he'd be a placer again here for me and 5/1 is no E/W price for my liking.

He was beaten by Tinto last time out and despite being 4lbs worse off here, I think Tinto will beat him again and 9/2 is probably fair if unexciting. What I do like is the early 17/2 being offered about Brazen Bolt. He's better than recent results might suggest, he's down in class, had good place data on Instant Expert and his yard have a good record at this track. His trainer/jockey are in good collective form and have done well here at Thirsk together and 17/2 is a decent E/W price.

As for H4C report horse, Ready Freddie Go, I'm sure he'll give his best shot on his favoured track and could well get close to the frame at 9/1, but I'd much prefer him over 5f rather than today's trip.

Racing Insights, Thursday 31/08/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.35 Navan
  • 3.35 Navan
  • 5.06 Bath
  • 5.30 Stratford
  • 7.45 Newcastle

...and of the three UK races, the one with the most Instant Expert data to work with is also the highest rated of the trio. It's race 26 of the Racing League, aka the 7.45 Newcastle, a 13-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard tapeta...

New Dayrell won last time out to open his account at the seventh attempt, whilst Painters Palette also won, taking his 2023 record to 3 wins from 7. Storm Catcher has also won 3 of his last 7, as has Bashful, whilst Blue Yonder has won twice. Onesmoothoperator, Carolus Magnus, Wind Your Neck In and Cap Francais have lost their last 15, 10, 8 & 9 races repsectively.

Only Onesmoothoperator, Carolus Magnus and Roaring Gallagher ran at this Class 3 level last time out and the laatter now runs in a handicap for just the second time. Of the ten class movers, only Storm Catcher drops down from Class 2 with the other nine all up a level.

Onesmoothoperator is clearly on the cold list, but like Bashful, he at least won over this course and distance with only Miami Thunder of the others to have won on this track (over a mile two starts ago), but Storm Catcher, New Dayrell and Blue Yonder have won over this trip elsewhere.

The latter of those 1m2f winners, Blue Yonder has been off track the longest, but he really shouldn't have got rusty after just 54 days' rest with his rivals all having raced in the last five weeks.

Instant Expert has all the above course/distance wins logged and instantly highlights the poor record of top-weight Onesmoothoperator...

It's not the most inspiring set of numbers to base a bet (or not) on, but there's some green titbits to work with and some areas of concern like the records of Wind Your Neck In & Cap Francais at this trip, but I've a feeling that we'd be better off focusing on All-Weather place data...

...which somewhat remarkably shows Onesmoothoperator in a whole new light and on the A/W over trips of 1m2f to 1m4.5f, his ten runs have finished 1329222122. The 9th place was the only non-tapeta run and his Newcastle placings from that series are 1322, which is interesting to say the least. A few others are of interest and a this point, the ones I think I'd want to be working with are...

...who are drawn in stalls 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 & 10, so I suppose I'm hoping that the extreme low & high stalls are generally unsuccessful over this track/trip, so let's check the data from our draw analyser...

...which does tend to suggest that I'm better off avoiding those drawn in the first four stalls, whilst the PRB3 data also says that those drawn 7 to 10 have gone well in the past...

That said, it's not all about the draw when you're racing over a mile and a quarter, as there should be adequate time to overcome a supposedly-poor draw, if you get the race tactics right and according to our pace analyser, those races above have firmly favoured the prominent runner who stalks the leader(s)...

 

..and I suspect off the basis of the field's last four (and more) outings that it might well be LTO winner and Tapeta-debutant New Dayrell who sets the fractions here...

...and our pace/draw heat map based on the data presented so far looks like this...

Summary

Miami Thunder is the one for me here. He's the best positioned on the pace/draw heat map, he's in good form with a win and a runner-up finish from his last two run, both here at Newcastle. He rarely runs a bad race on the A/W, having finished 232512 in his six efforts and at 13/2, he's almost in E/W territory, but I'll back him to win.

Most of the above tells me to avoid Onesmoothoperator, but as a believer in the old "Horses for Courses" adage, I keep coming back to him, purely on his place form here at Newcastle and on Tapeta in general and I think there's still every chance that he'll outrun his 16/1 to 20/1 price tickets. Most firms are paying four places, but with SkyBet paying five, I'd be taking a small E/W punt here at 16's.

Elsewhere, I'd expect the likes of Storm Catcher to finish somewhere between that pair above and as he's priced at 8/1 generally, he'd also be a good E/W chance with those firms paying four places.