Tag Archive for: Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 13/07/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following for me to consider...

...in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.40 Wexford
  • 3.10 York
  • 3.32 Ascot
  • 5.25 York
  • 6.05 Chester

The best (on paper) of all those races listed above (report plus free list) looks like being the latest of all, the 6.05 Chester, which is an 8-runner Listed race for horses aged 3 or over. The trip is a left-handed seven furlongs on good to soft ground and here's the line-up...

...a very open-looking race where the fast-finisher Al Shabab Storm is our only LTO winner, having done so here over course and distance a fortnight ago after a pair of runner-up finishes and this three year old now has two wins and four places from his eight starts.

Breege, Vafortino and Evade all won their penultimate UK races and Witch Hunter was less than 2.5 lengths behind the winner in a Group 3 contest a fortnight ago. Those seemingly out of form are Pogo and Streets of Gold who are both currently winless in eight races.

Streets of Gold's hopes of breaking that lean spell seem slim, as he actually steps up a class here, as do Vafortino and Al Shabab Storm, whilst Breege will run in blinkers for the first time in a bid to finally win over this trip after finishing as runner-up in all three previous efforts.

As such, he's the only one in the field without a win at 7f, whilst Al Shabab Storm's course and distance win here a fortnight ago is the only previous Chester win from these nine runners. That said, his two efforts here (runner-up and winner) and two from Witch Hunter (second and third) are the only ones to have taken place!

Instant Expert shows that course win and also highlights how tough Breege, Pogo and Witch Hunter have found it to win at Class 1 with a combined record of just 3 from 31...

Pogo has also struggle to win over today's trip in recent years, as he's clearly not the horse he used to be with a career record of 5 wins and 8 places from 27 Class 1 outings. That near 50% place strike rate at Class 1 hasn't quite been replicated over the last couple of years and as his star wanes at the age of 8, he's now probably the weakest of the field on the place stats...

...where Breege looks quite strong across the board. He, Vafortino and Evade all have three blocks of green above for the place stats and Vafortino has bagged the supposed prize of being drawn in stall 1. I say supposed because there's an old saying that you need to be drawn low to win on Chester's ever left-hand turning track, but lets check the actual data for verification/denial...

...and yes, stall 1 is a great place to run from, but stall 2 is even better, but generally speaking the low draw easily has the best of it, but that's only half of the battle here, because if you're drawn low and you get away slowly, you're susceptible to being blocked off at the first turn because early pace is as important if mot more so than the draw...

...all of which makes the resultant pace/draw heat map fairly predictable...

...and I can't recall see many similar one-sided heat maps. Low drawn leaders have won 9 of 14 on that chart, but what that doesn't tell you is that three of five who failed to win still went on to make the frame, so whilst mid-drawn leaders, low drawn prominent runners and low drawn runners in mid-division all win their fair share of races, we ideally want one of Vafortino, Al Shabab Storm and Breege to be a front-runner, so let's check their recent races...

...and this trio fill three of the first four places on that chart with only out of form Pogo ahead of them. If we translate those racing positions into our pace/draw heat map, we get something like this...

...with none of them firmly taking advantage, although it wouldn't be a surprise to see Al Shabab Storm set the pace here based on his two most recent outings.

Summary

You can make a case for most of these here, but I firmly believe that the pace/draw combination can't be ignored here at Chester and with the in-form (LTO course and distance winner) Al Shabab grabbing that plum second stall, he'd be my pick here with Vafortino and Breege running him close. A quick look at the market from Hills (only book open) as of 4.30pm Friday shows what a competitive race it might be...

...with Breege very interesting from an E/W perspective.

 

 

Racing Insights, Friday 12/07/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier...

...for me to consider along with our daily list of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.15 Ascot
  • 2.25 Newmarket
  • 4.15 Dundalk
  • 4.45 Newmarket
  • 5.10 Ascot
  • 5.50 Chepstow

The highest-rated of all those races above is obviously the Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes, aka the 2.25 Newmarket, but 2 yr old fillies really aren't my thing. Next 'best' on the list is the 5.10 Ascot, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to soft ground...

...where surprisingly not one of them managed to win last time out and only Rhythm n Hooves had a top three finish as a three-length runner-up at Newmarket, but half a doxen of the field have won at least once in their last seven starts (Glenfinnan, Executive Decision and Bishops Crown all doing so twice), whilst Mums Tipple, Fresh and The Big Board's current cold spells stand at 12. 14 and 8 consecutive defeats respectively.

Fresh and Mums Tipple's hopes of a return to winning ways are boosted by them dropping down a class, as do the other two runners, Glenfinnan and Rizg, in the top four of the weights. Executive Decision also drops in class, but The Big Board steps up a class despite losing each of his eight outings. Rizg and Jarraaf both run in handicaps for just the second time and top weight Glenfinnan makes a debut in cheekpieces.

All of them have already tasted victory over today's trip and both Rhythm n Hooves and The Big Board have already won on this track, albeit over 5f, but Glenfinnan, Mums Tipple and Fresh are all former course and distance winners with Glenfinnan's win two months and three starts ago the most recent and he was only beaten by less than two lengths here over track and trip last time out, when a gallant 5th of 25 in the Wokingham. That said, he still has to play second fiddle to Executive Decision when it comes to looking at the two-year win records documented by Instant Expert...

...where the red flags for me are with Mums Tipple and Fresh over today's trip, although the latter's recent poor form sees him some 11lbs below his last winning mark, so he could be dangerously weighted if finally finding his feet again. And I suppose you could say the same about The Big Board, who is 8lbs lower than his own last win and has no red on the graphic above. He could be a contender for the frame, if the following place stats are kind...

Sadly, I'd say they weren't kind enough for him to be in my immediate eye-line, but he can stay under consideration for now, but I'm going to put Rizg, Fresh and Jarraaf on the 'doubtful' list prior to checking the draw and pace stats.

The afore-mentioned Rizg is actually drawn in stall 1, which has done extremely well here in the past which I presume is down to having the rail as a guide. From a place perspective, I'd say those drawn in 5 or higher have fared best of all...

...in 50-odd races that have slightly favoured those willing to get on with things...

...which could be good news for the relatively in-form Rhythm n Hooves if the field's last few runs are anything to go by...

...and although doubtful after Instant Expert, Jarraaf looks well poised from a pace perspective and he's just about on the 'right' side of the draw stats, so he could be interesting.

Summary

Glenfinnan was the one that I thought might come out of this the best, a course and distance winner just two months and three starts ago and arriving here off the back of a really good effort in the Wokingham. Sadly the pace/draw stats don't back up his claims entirely, but I think he's dangerous here. Jarraaf is unexposed under these conditions, is just about in the right part of the draw and may well be the pace-setter today, which puts him in contention alongside fellow front runner Rhythm n Hooves.

Rhythm n Hooves is in decent nick with a win three starts ago and a runner-up finish last time out, he'll be up with the pace and is drawn even better than Jarraaf. He doesn't have a great record at Class 3, but did win a 26-runner Class 2 handicap here last summer beating subsequent Group 2 and Listed class runners in the process.

So, that's my three against the field in what looks a pretty open contest.

Racing Insights, Thursday 11/07/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.45 Carlisle
  • 3.35 Newmarket
  • 4.55 Doncaster
  • 6.25 Newbury
  • 8.30 Leopardstown

...the best of which has to be the 3.35 Newmarket aka the Prince of Wales' Stakes, a 6-runner, Group 2 flat race over a right-handed 1m4f on what looks like being good to soft / soft ground...

My initial thoughts were that this should be Hamish's race to win/lose with (in card order) Giavelotto and Arrest the best of the rest and most likely to challenge, but let's see...

GIAVELLOTTO was last seen eight weeks ago winning the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup at York for the second year running. He carries a 3lb penalty for that win, but does drop back 2f in trip. He has won three of his last seven races, has a career place strike rate of 75% (9 from 12) and was a winner here over 1m6f back in August 2022 in what was his last handicap run.

OUTBOX is one of three Frankel offspring in this race along with Arrest and Time Lock and is a confirmed front-runner, as demonstrated when he won the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes on the Rowley track here at HQ on his last UK run (3rd May) beating the re-opposing Time Lock by 2½ lengths) to end a run of 14 consecutive UK defeats. Has finished 9th of 10 and last of 7 in two runs in Europe since and could well struggle here.

ARREST has won four of ten starts, making the frame is half of his six defeats, including two runner-up finishes in his three runs (one of which was the 2023 St Leger!) since winning the Gr 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury last August. He also won the Gr 3 Chester Vase in May '23 and ran a decent race at Chester again last time out.

HAMISH won the Gr3 Ormonde Stakes at Chester just over two years ago and since then has finished in the first two home in nine successive races, winning six times taking his last ten finishes to read 1212111112 culminating in a one length defeat in the Gr 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom, when probably given too much to do late on. I can't seen him not finishing in the first two here yet again.

MAXI KING is probably way out of his depth here if truth be told. His best result to date is a Class 2 handicap win over this trip on the Rowley Mile in May but was only 11th of 16 in another Class 2 handicap at Ascot last time out.

TIME LOCK won a Listed race at Craon in France last September before going on to land the Group 3 Princess Royal Stakes on the Rowley Mile here last September and was also a 2½ length runner-up behind Giavellotto in the Jockey Club Stakes on her return from over six months off the track. She disappointed in the Coronation Cup last time out, when last home of five, beaten by the best part of 24 lengths and 23 lengths behind Hamish, so she has plenty to find here based on that result. The going is also against her here, as her two wins in the UK came on Good to Firm ground.

Instant Expert also puts a tick next to Hamish's name based purely on win stats under today's expected conditions...

...with Arrest probably next in line, although Giavellotto's place figures would appear to be better than Arrest's and the chances are that these are both vying for second place if truth be told...

...and Outbox looks hard to back/recommend!

As you'd expect, there's not a huge draw bias over a trip of a mile and a half in a small field, but if there is anything to be gained, then the lower half of the draw has prevailed most often, not withstanding a freakish result for stall 5, which might give more hope to followers of Giavellotto...

If a horse does want to gain an advantage, there is a way and that's by dictating the pace of the race from the front as leaders here have done far better in those races above from both a win and place perspective, than the other three running styles...

...which might just give Outbox a chance of competing if this field's last few races are anything to go by...

So, Outbox is drawn low and has the ideal pace profile here in a race that lacks other genuine front-runners, but he's in poor form right now and I can't see Ryan Moore (on Time Lock) letting him get as far clear as he did in the Jockey Club Stakes in May, especially as Time Lock is 3lbs better off here. What I suspect will happen is that Outbox will be sent out to win from the front the other five will race together and slowly reel him in.

Summary

I still can't see Hamish getting beaten here and whilst I'm not normally a fan of backing shorties, his current (5pm Wednesday) price of 10/11 might even represent some value, as he has been sent off shorter than that in three of his last six Group 3 contests. So I suppose, it's just a case of ho comes second and that's still down to Giavelotto / Arrest for me. There's not much to choose between them, if truth be told, but Giavelotto has a better place record than Arrest and his 6/1 ticket offers more value than the latter's 7/2 and could well be an E/W option at 1/4 odds.

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 10/07/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

...but have actually highlighted quite a list of qualifiers...


...for me to consider. In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.30 Lingfield
  • 2.40 Yarmouth
  • 4.20 Catterick
  • 4.50 Fairyhouse
  • 5.05 Kempton

...giving me a grand total of ten separate UK races to choose from! Of those, the 5.05 Kempton is the highest-rated at Class 2, but a field of thirteen novices with a combined total of twenty-two career races doesn't give much to work from, so the next 'best' is the 5.00 Lingfield, where Roger Varian will look for another course winner with his in-form 3yo gelding Nazron in a 5-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on soft ground...

As you can see, none of them managed to win last time out, but Nazron and McLoven were runners-up, as they both have been three times recently. McLoven, however, is up in class here and is the only runner without a win in seven starts, turning a career start of 2 wins from 4 into his current 2 wins from 11 and he's 0 from 8 on turf.

All five have raced at least once in the last four weeks and Tsunami Spirit is the only one yet to win over this minimum trip, as his sole success was over 6f on the polytrack at Kempton. The 5yr old mare Mary of Modena is the sole non-3yo in the field and has failed to win any of her last five outings, but her win over 6f on good ground here back in May '22 is this field's only course win, according to a fairly-sorry looking Instant Expert...

...from which the takeaways are that we're bereft of Class 4 wins on the Flat, but Mary of Modena (who seems to like soft ground) & Kiss and Run both have a pair of Class 5 wins on turf. McLoven has struggled over this trip, despite having plenty of practice and on these numbers above, it's Mary of Modena edging it and she also has a really good place record under these conditions...

...where McLoven continues to look vulnerable.

We don't have much in the way of data for small field sprints on soft ground here at Lingfield (it is July after all!), but I wasn't really expecting much of a draw bias over a straight 5f anyway, but here's the data we do have..

...which I suppose backs up my thoughts. And if those nine wins have been equally shared amongst the three draw zones, it's a fairly similar story with regards to pace. None of the eight mid-division runners (too small a sample to trust in my opinion) have won, but otherwise, the wins have been shared equally...
...which brings me to the place stats to provide a little guidance and if runners want to make the frame, they're advised (as is often the case over 5f) to get on with it pretty quickly and if we look at this field's recent efforts...
...it looks like McLoven and Mary of Modena will be setting the tempo and the contest and there's a serious danger of Tsunami Spirit being run out of things.

Summary

In a reversal of how I normally summarise, I'm going to start by showing you the market as it stands at 4.30pm Tuesday*...
*odds taken from Hills, the only book open
I can't back Nazron at 11/10 if I rely on the data above, even if he's probably the best in the race and he's in good nick and his yard do well here, there's just no value there for me, you're welcome to disagree, of course. McLoven also looks too short at 3/1 for a horse that is winless in seven and an overall 0 from 8 on the flat and scored poorly on Instant Expert. He does have an ideal pace profile here, of course, but he's still not for me.
The pace looks like it might well rule Tsunami Spirit out of the equation, which effectively leaves me with the two outsiders in the contest if I wanted to place a bet. The truth is that I don't really want to throw much, if any, cash at this one now that I've looked at it, but if I do, it'll probably be a small E/W bet on Mary of Modena. She'd be an unlikely winner, I suppose, but she has won on this track, she scores well on the place element of Instant Expert and will be right u with the pace.
Stranger things have happened!

Racing Insights, Tuesday 09/07/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where all of them must be worth at least a quick look. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.40 Pontefract
  • 4.55 Lingfield
  • 5.05 Uttoxeter
  • 5.10 Tramore

Now, I see that Delta Legend from The Shortlist runs in one of those free races above, but it looks a poor contest and I think I'd rather look at a higher category of race like the 3.40 Pontefract, an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 6f on good to firm ground...

This actually looks like a really open race today, so let's see if we can glean any pointers from the toolkit. None of them seem to be coming here in much form with bottom weight Flaccianello's runner-up finish in an eleven-runner race at York 25 days ago, the best of the field's last efforts, none of the others even made the frame. That said, only Silky Wilkie and Woven have failed to win any of their last six outings and they come here on streaks of fifteen and nine defeats respectively.

With the above in mind, I can't see Woven's chances being enhanced by a step up in class, as does Wen Moon, whilst Room Service drops down from finishing 6th of 14 in a Listed race to come here for just his second handicap outing. Coachella and Wen Moon wear tongue-ties for the second time today and jockey Sam Feilden will take 7lbs off Silky Wilkie's allotted weight of 9st 11lbs.

All bar Silky Wilkie (off for 38 days) and Room Service (52d) have raced in the last 17-25 days so all should be race-sharp and Room Service is the only one in the race yet to score over today's trip; but he did win over 5½f on debut and also over 6½f three starts ago, so the trip shouldn't be an issue. Wen Moon is the only runner to have visited Pontefract before with one win (over this trip) and one place (over 5f) from three attempts...

Instant Expert tells us that Roman Dragon and Woven are a combined 0 from 25 at Class 2 on the Flat and that the latter is also a meagre 1 from 26 over this trip, so he's going to be tough to back here, but Roman Dragon's 5 wins from 13 over the trip is a good return. Wen Moon is hovering close to being ruled on on class (0 from 6) and distance (1 from 7) too, but let's see if his place stats come to his rescue today...

...and I suppose it just about does. he's not the strongest contender at this point, but after Instant Expert, these are the ones that I'd focus on...

...which dismisses the runners in stalls 6 and 8, so i hope that if there's a draw bias, that lower drawn runners are the ones who normally benefit! Fortunately here over 6f at Ponty, that does seem to be the case, with stalls 1-5 having the best of the wins and stalls 1-4 making the frame most often...

But getting a low-ish draw is just one half of the battle here at Pontefract, making full use of it is the key and to do so, you need to get away sharpish and be up with the pace; setting the pace from the front is even better...

...as leaders have won 31.6% of the races and taken 24.6% of the places from just 15.9% of the runners, which means that this following pace/draw heat map really shouldn't be any surprise...

...which then directs us back to the runners themselves as we try to ascertain who might race prominently or even attempt to win from the front and of the evidence of recent efforts, Matters Most is the only one who seems to enjoy being up with the pace...

I'd ignore his last run, as that was a 28-runner, 5f dash where he just couldn't get involved but he does like to be upfront, whilst Silky Wilkie is the only other one known for getting out sharp-ish, but he's over in stall 7 which isn't ideal.

Summary

It's a really open contest, this one and you could make a case for most of them. So, with that in mind, it'd be small stakes if any at all and I think I'd probably side with Matters Most over Silky Wilkie based on pace/draw with Room Service possibly the one to complete the frame.

Based on the market as of 5pm Monday...

...Silky Wilkie is definitely in E/W territory, whilst 11/2 about Matters most looks more than fair.

Racing Insights, Saturday 06/07/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report are fairly restrictive...

...and they haven't actually generated any runners for me to look at, so it's a good job that as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.30 Haydock
  • 2.15 Beverley
  • 3.15 Haydock
  • 4.35 Beverley
  • 5.58 Bellewstown
  • 8.00 Bellewstown

The pick of these is undoubtedly the Old Newton Cup but 17-runner handicaps tend not to be my thing, so I'll stick to the next best and first of that list, the 1.30 Haydock, a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a straight 5f on good ground...

We've no LTO winners to discuss today, but Due for Luck was third of nineteen in the Epsom Dash at the start of the month, beaten by a length and a half with the re-opposing Curious Rover a further 2 places and 2.25 lengths further back. Curious Rover has raced again since and was also third last time out, beaten by 2.5 lengths at Chester in an eleven-runner field and he's now a pound better off with Due For Luck.

All seven runners here have won at least one of their last seven races and all bar Fools Gold have had at least one outing in the last five weeks, but he hasn't been seen for nearly ten months since being well beaten (10 lengths) in a Group 2 race at Doncaster, when seventh of eight. He has been gelded during his layoff but will probably need the run here on his handicap debut.

He's down three classes here today, as none of this field actually raced at Class 4 last time around; Vince L'Amour, Lady Pink Rose and Moonstone Boy all raced at Class 2, whilst Due For Luck and Curious Rover both competed in Class 3 handicaps. Only bottom weight Cloud King steps up in class here.

Only Curious Rover and Due For Luck have raced here at Haydock before with the former winning a Class 2 Nursery over course and distance last September in a race where Due For Luck was last home of the four runners, almost seven lengths down and it's this pair that lead the way on Instant Expert...

Vince l'Amour and Moonstone Boy have done well over this trip too, although the former's best runs have come on soft and heavy ground and this might be too quick for him. From the above, it's Due For Luck who has had the most success turning those placed efforts into wins...

You wouldn't normally expect much of a draw bias in a small field over a straight 5f on good ground, but the results from similar past races doesn't bode well for the chances of Cloud King and Moonstone Boy drawn higher than stall five...

I must admit that I didn't expect that, but I wasn't surprised to see the following pace data from those races above...

... which then generated this pace/draw heat map...

Fools Gold only has three previous runs under his belt, so it's probably fairest to just analyse the field's last three runs and here's how they've approached then from a pace perspective complete with the corresponding pace/draw heat map for this contest...

Summary

For me, it's a two-way battle between Curious Rover and Due For Luck and I feel they're very closely matched. The former leads the head to head by 2 to 1, the latter had the better win record on Instant Expert. Both are drawn well, both made the frame last time out and both had good place record on Instant Expert, but Curious Rover likely to attempt the control the race from the front, he'd be my marginal pick here at 4/1*, which offers better value than the 2/1* ticket on Due for Luck.

Only 2 places on offer today, sadly, but 10/1* outsider Moonstone Boy could easily outrun those odds and he might be the one who'd take advantage of any slip up from my 1-2.

*odds taken from Bet365 (only book open) at 4.40pm Friday.

Racing Insights, Friday 05/07/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have generated just one qualifier for Friday...

but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 4.30 Cork
  • 4.50 Sandown
  • 5.30 Beverley
  • 6.50 Cork
  • 9.00 Haydock

...and I think I'll focus upon the 4.50 Sandown, a 7-runner, Listed race for runners aged 4 and over. The trip is a right-handed two miles on good/good to firm ground and here's how they're expected to line up...

Surprisingly for a race of this grade, none of this field won last time out, but Run For Oscar and Sleeping Lion were runners-up in Class 2 handicaps, whiulst Trueshan was third here over course and distance in a Group 3 contest. Run For Oscar, Sleeping Lion and Miss Cynthia are the three without a win in their last four starts, having lost each of their last 10, 10 and 12 starts respectively with the latter still a maiden.

Run For Oscar and Sleeping Lion's chances of breaking their losing runs won't be helped by the step up in calss, whilst Roberto Escobarr's debut for Ian Williams also sees him step up from Class 2.

9st 2lbs is the standard allotted weight here, but the two females, Miss Cynthia and Night Sparkle each receiv a 5lb allowance, but this still leaves Quickthorn 2lbs better off than Trueshan at the head of the ratings with Sleeping Lion worst off, rated some 19lbs inferior to Quickthorn.

All bar the two females have won over this trip already with both Quickthorn and Roberto Escobarr having won over course and distance...

Instant Expert suggests that Sleeping Lion had has trouble getting his nose in front on good/good to firm ground and further inspection shows that his best form has been on the A/W at Kempton and he has also performed better over shorter trips. Elsewhere no real cause for concern with the highest drawn trio looking like the ones to focus here, not withstanding the fact that Roberto Escobarr might well need the run after a six month break.

Those drawn highest have actually fared a little worse than par here over longer distances, but it's not a huge bias and the draw really shouldn't be the reason why a horse loses a race that's two miles long...

...but pace might be a different issue completely with this type of race suiting front runners more than the other running styles.

If we then look at how this field has raced in their last couple of outings...

...we're looking at the same three runners from Instant Expert.

Summary

Instant Expert and Pace profiling have both led us to Quickthorn, Trueshan and Roberto Escobarr. The latter looks the weakest of the trio and will probably need the run anyway, but might not bad for a small E/W punt at 14/1 with Bet365, but the first two home here really should be Quickthorn and Trueshan and if pushed for a winner, I'd probably side with the latter.

Trueshan and Quickthorn were the last two home of five in the Gr 3 Sagaro Stakes at the start of May with Trueshan 11 lengths clear of Quickthorn, despite carrying 7lbs more. They meet again on equal terms, so I'm with Trueshan here.

The bookies disagree, mind you, with Quickthorn currently 13/8 and Trueshan at 9/4.

*prices taken from Bet365 at 4.15pm Thursday

Racing Insights, Thursday 04/07/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.40 Haydock
  • 4.25 Bellewstown
  • 5.10 Tipperary
  • 5.40 Tipperary
  • 5.50 Kempton
  • 6.45 Newbury

None of those make much appeal to me if truth be told, so I'm going off-piste with a look at the highest-rated handicap of the day in the UK, the 7.35 Kempton, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on standard to slow tapeta...

My initial thoughts were that this might well be a two-horse between Cracksking and The Goat at fairly short prices, leaving the way open for an E/W bet or two, but let's check...

Only Cracksking won last time out and this son of Frankel is 2 from 4 (3211) on the All-Weather. He beat the re-opposing The Goat by a neck in that race (here over course and distance), whilst Simply Sondheim and Ludos Landing were also runners-up on their last outings.

Way of Life has made the frame in 11 of his last 14, but has failed to win any of his last 22 races, whilst Global Heat, There's The Door and Naval Commander are on losing streaks of 14, 7 and 8 races respectively.

There's The Door does have the benefit of a drop in class here, though, as do Simply Sondheim and Graignes, but the bottom four in the weights, Way of Life, Naval Commander, Met Office and Ludos Landing all step up in class, so it's hard to envisage either of Way of Life or Naval Commander getting back to winning ways here.

Gooloogong runs in a handicap for just the second time (last of eight over course and distance behind Cracksking & The Goat as above LTO four weeks ago), whilst bothNaval Commander and Simply Sondheim make yard debuts on their return from lengthy layoffs of 364 days and 292 days respectively. Both Met Office (232d) and Graignes (241d) might also be in need of the run, but the other seven runners here have raced in the last 8-40 days.

All bar There's The Door have had at least one run here at Kempton, but only Simply Sondheim, Cracksking, Graignes and Naval Commander have won here with all bar Naval Commander and Ludos Landing having tackled today's trip. Cracksking, The Goat, Way of Life and Met Office have all won over 1m4f, but only Cracksking has won at track and trip, when triumphant here four weeks ago.

Based on this preview, it's no surprise that Cracksking is the standout in terms of wins on our free daily feature Instant Expert...

...with Simply Sondheim and Graignes also having gone well, but they are both returning from long breaks. From a place perspective, my shortlist would have to be Simply Sondheim, Cracksking, The Goat, Graignes and Way of Life and these runners occupy stalls 1, 3, 4, 5 and 7, so I'm hoping that if there's a draw bias to take advantage of, that it benefits those drawn lowest...

...and that does appear to be the case, albeit marginally. I suspect the pace might well tell us a bit more about who might challenge here. I've got it in my head that even though the trip is a mile and a half that those setting the pace or keeping up with it have fared the best, but as ever, its always best to check the data...

Well, I'm sort of right, I suppose. the advantage seems more pronounced from a place perspective, of course, but one this is apparent : you don't want to dwell and be left behind here. So, I suppose that if one or more of my low-drawn Instant Expert shortlist are runners who like to get on with things, we might have ourselves a live E/W chance at worst, so let's look at their last few races...

...with four of my shortlisted quintet filling the first five berths on the pace chart, making the resultant pace/draw heat map look like this...

Summary

Based on our free feature of the day, Instant Expert and the pace/draw data, I'm inclined to stick with Simply Sondheim, Cracksking, The Goat, Graignes and Way of Life as the five runners to choose from and with Simply Sondheim and Graignes likely to need a run after a lengthy lay-off, I'm left with the two that I though would battle it out for the win, Cracksking and The Goat plus perennial placer but rare winner Way of Life and I'll take them in that order.

The one I did like earlier but doesn't seem to tick any boxes is bottom weight Ludo's Landing. He's in great form, receives weight all round and could well spring a surprise. The Wednesday 5.30pm market looked like this...

...so there could be an E/W bet or two in the offing, if you're that way inclined.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 02/07/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where we've two runners in the same race at Brighton. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.15 Hamilton
  • 2.33 Tipperary
  • 4.45 Roscommon
  • 7.00 Lingfield
  • 7.20 Roscommon

And whilst it's not the best calibre of race in the world (or even on this day!), I think I should have a look at Gallimimus and Chourmo from The Shortlist, who make up a quarter of the 8-runner field for the 3.55 Brighton, a Class 6 (all six races at Brighton are Class 6 affairs), 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

Corporate Raider and Bhubezi both won last time out, whilst Bobacious was a modest third of nine at Chepstow, which means he's still a maiden after eight attempts across a variety of race genres (4 x flat, 1 x A/W, 1 x hurdle and 1 x NHF!). Others struggling for wins are Gallimimus, Lucky Question and Irezumi with Gallimimus having lost nine on the bounce since a course and distance success a year ago, whilst Lucky Question and Irezumi are both still maidens after twelve and seventeen races respectively!

Our two runners from The Shortlist, Gallimimus and Chourmo both drop down a class here, whilst connections of Lucky Question will be hoping that a change of yard leads to an improvement in form, as hopefully will first-time cheekpieces for Irezumi. It's also a UK debut for Lucky Question after a dozen defeats in Ireland and he now runs for the first time in fourteen weeks whilst all his rivals have been out at least once in the last ten to twenty-four days.

Gallimimus and Chourmo have both won over course and distance before, whilst Corporate Raider and Dee's Dream have also scored here at Brighton in the past with the former prevailing here over 1m4f last time out and the latter also winning over that trip back in September 2023. Aside from our two course and distance winners, Corporate Raider's victory at Yarmouth a year ago is the only other win over today's trip.

As you'd expect, Gallimimus and Chourmo are the immediate eyecatchers on Instant Expert...

...but that is, of course tempered, by the former's inability to win any of nine races over the last year. Irezumi looks the weak link here and I've concerns about Dee's Dream's poor strike rate of 1 from 8 at Class 6 over the last two to supplement her overall career record of just 1 win from 19! I suppose it comes to something when a 17.65% career strike rate (Gallimimus is 3 from 17) is the best on offer in a race. I can only hope some of them have ran well, been unlucky and made the frame instead of winning...

Well, that's a prettier sight, but the end of the road for Irezumi with me for this one. Lucky Question is generally untried under these conditions, but having lost all twelve previous starts with just three places, he's also going to be tough to recommend. He's drawn out in stall seven of eight today and that might actually give him a bit more chance of getting involved here, based on past results of similar races at Brighton over the years...

...although to make best use of what looks a favourable draw, he'd be best advised to get a bit of a wriggle on early doors...

Sadly for Lucky Question, getting out sharpish doesn't seem to be his thing and I suspect the pace in this race will come from those drawn lower with the three lowest-drawn runners filling the first four spaces on our pace averages, based on their recent races...

...handing them the initiative.

Summary

Of our two runners from The Shortlist, Gallimimus and Chourmo, I prefer the latter for this contest and I'd probably suggest Chourmo as my actual winner of the race, despite not seeming to have the ideal pace profile for this course/distance. He was the last to break when scoring here two starts ago and he beat the re-opposing Corporate Raider by a neck that day.

The latter has since won here over 1m4f, of course and that puts him in a strong position here, but he carries 3lbs more than Chourmo here and they carried equal weight when Chourmo beat him, so I'm going for Chourmo to narrowly beat Corporate raider again, although there probably won't be much, if anything in it. This probably explains why they were best-priced at 4/1 and 5/1 respectively at 5.10pm on Monday.

Only Gallimimus (10/1), Irezumi (14/1) and Dee's Dream (16/1) traded above my arbitrary 8/1 E/W cut-off price, so an E/W bet is unlikely here, but it would have to be Gallimimus if any.

Racing Insights, Monday 01/07/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 4.15 Pontefract
  • 4.45 Pontefract
  • 7.15 Windsor
  • 8.45 Windsor

...from which, I'm going to have a look at the 7.15 Windsor, an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm, ground...

...where hat-trick seeking  and fast-finishing Haymaker is the sole LTO winner, although Aramis Grey and Amazonian Dream finished second and third respectively on their last outings. Yet despite being a regular placer (15 top 3 finishes from her last 19 races), Aramis Grey is the only runner in this field without a win in starts, having suffered eleven defeats on the bounce and her cause is unlikely to be helped by stepping up a class here, as does Under The Twilight, whilst 'form horse' Haymaker is up two classes.

Rohaan and Wallop both last raced eight weeks ago and the other half dozen have all been seen in the last 10-23 days, so we should have no fitness issues from a field where all eight have won at least once over today's trip and all bar the afore-mentioned Rohaan and Wallop have won over course and distance, Mind you, neither has been to Windsor before, as demonstrated by Instant Expert...

...where my main concerns are the lack of Class 2 wins aside from Rohaan, of course and Aramis Grey's poor win record at this trip plus the fact she's some 15lbs higher than her last win. That, I suppose, is the danger of running well, but not quite well enough to win.

With the lack of Class 2 wins above, it might well be worth looking at Class 3 form...

...where Katey Kontent has been the standout with all of Under The Twilight's wins coming at Class 4. With the lack of Class 2 form above, I've included the Class 3 data in the place stats from above...

...and here you can see some of Aramis Grey's placed finishes that I mentioned earlier as she, along with Under The Twilight, Haymaker, Katey Kontent and Shagraan seem the ones to focus upon.

There shouldn't be too much of an advantage for any of these runners from the draw, although Amazonian Dream should be aware that there's a fair drop off beyond stall 7...

...and whilst those draw stats aren't a huge help to us, our feature of the day is PACE and we're at Windsor for a straight 6f on quick ground, where pace is key. We didn't get much help from the draw in those 110+ races, but just look at how they were won...

...which speaks for itself, I think. So, we want to be on a front-runner and preferably not from stall 8, so if we look at how the field has approached its last few outings...

...we can make a fairly reasoned assumption that Shagraan might well attempt to win this from the front from stall 2 with the in-form Haymaker the one most likely to give chase.

Summary

Short and hopefully sweet today, but from the pace chart (which is key at Windsor), Shagraan and Haymaker could be a fair way clear of Aramis Grey, Katey Kontent and Under The Twilight (I'd already ruled Wallop, Amazonian Dream and Rohaan out of my considerations) and I'm certainly wanting these front-runners in my final three.

As for the third placer, I actually think that Katey Kontent might well be the best horse in the race, but won't be suited by the pace of this one but should still make the frame. As for the winner, I prefer Shagraan over Haymaker, as the former will be out in front first and the latter is up two classes, but should still place.

Sadly, though, the bookies are also on to this pace bias at Windsor and as of 4.45pm Sunday, they went...

Based on the above, perennial placer Aramis Grey might not be a bad E/W shout if any of my preferred trio fail to fire.

Racing Insights, Saturday 29/06/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

In addition to those as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 3.10 Newcastle
  • 3.40 Newcastle
  • 5.25 Newcastle
  • 5.40 Lingfield
  • 7.30 Doncaster
  • 8.00 Doncaster

The free list starts with a couple of Class 2 contests, but the 3.10 race is a 20-runner affair, which isn't my thing, so we'll move down the list one place and consider the 3.40 Newcastle, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+, A/W handicap over  a straight 7f on standard to slow tapeta...

Bottom weight Local Hero has two wins and a runner-up finish form his four career starts and not only does he receive a 9lb weight allowance as the only 3 yr old in the field, he's also the sole LTO winner with only his oldest rival here, the 11yo Documenting, managing to make the frame.

The old warrior also won two starts back and most of the field have won at least once in their last six outings, apart from Make Me King, Raadobarg and Zip who are on losing runs of 8, 15 and 9 races respectively.

Four of the bottom five in the weights are up in class with Yermanthere and Zip stepping up from Class 3, whilst both Giant and Local Hero are up from Class 4. United Approach is the odd one out on the bottom five of the card, as he was fourth of eleven at Newbury at this grade last month after two wins on the bounce. That last run was his handicap debut and he makes just a second handicap appearance today, as does Local Hero.

Documenting last raced seven weeks ago, Make Me King and Baradar ran as recently as last Thursday (20th June) and the others have all raced at some point in between. United Approach is the only one yet to win over today's trip; all his four starts have been over 6f, whilst only four horses have even raced here at Newcastle. Liamarty Dreams, Eldrickjones and Zip have all won over course and distance, but Documenting could only finish 8th of 9 over track and trip back in December 2022 on his only prior visit.

A few of these are short on recent A/W experience, if truth be told...

...but of the above the positives are clearly Eldrickjones (track/trip) and Local hero (going), but Zip has struggled to win at Class 2 and here at Newcastle, even if he has won over course and distance. Those races above from a place perspective look like this...

...showing Zip in a whole new light. He hasn't won any of nine starts and is up in class, he has struggled to win here of late and has a poor Class 2 record, so I've already written him off as a win bet, but those place stats are impressive enough for him to remain in my thoughts for now as a possible E/W option. His last dozen A/W runs have finished 216132535562 and he was a course and distance runner-up on his last A/W outing. Giant and Edlrickjones also have solid place credentials so far.

We've not much in the way of any draw bias here...

...which is probably to be expected over an A/W straight 7f, so we'll turn immediately to the pace stats from those races to see if there's any help forthcoming. Strangely, there's not much of a pace bias either...

...but those racing furthest forward make the frame most often and if you're not in the frame, you're not winning, so I'll be wanting a horse that races prominently or further advanced if possible. Hold-up horses have, of course, fared the worst as is often the case over a straight 7f, but I don't think that'll be the case here as they might go off at a fair clip with no confirmed hold-up types in the field...

..and if we look at the pace/draw heat map, we've a sort of diagonal 'corridor of success' from low drawn leaders, mid-drawn prominence and high-drawn runners in midfield...

...which, if I'm being harsh, seems to rule Documenting, United Approach, Raadobarg, Baradar, Grey's Monument and Zip out. That said, I'd keep United Approach on recent form and Zip on his ability to make the frame, so I'm still left with eight runners.

Summary

I've decided against Documenting, Raadobarg, Baradar and Grey's Monument already and I'll add Make Me King to that list due to his poor recent form. Liamarty Dreams' last four A/W runs have all been here at Newcastle with finishes of 7689, losing by an average of around 8.5 lengths, so he's not for me either, whilst all Yermanthere's form is on soft-ish ground, leaving me with these five to choose from...

Any of this group is good enough to make the frame here and I really like United Approach, but I just think that 4/1 is a little short for a horse with no A/W experience stepping up to 7f for the first time. Don't get me wrong, he really could win here and win well, but I think there's more value in the 11/1 being offered about Eldrickjones and I'd see that as an E/W option here. He has three wins here at Newcastle, including two over course and distance and all his A/W runs have been on Tapeta, finishing 26121521.

Zip's a three-time C&D winner and was second to Eldrickjones last month and is now 7lbs better off, so could also be an option at 8/1. Local Hero is sure to get involved carrying no weight and in good form, but he's only 5/1 and up two classes, whilst Giant is another who makes E/W appeal at 8/1. He has two wins and five further places from eight starts over 7f on the A/W and whilst also up in class here, should put another decent effort in.

I've left a few in, as the bookies are paying four places here and the odds quoted were correct as of 4.50pm Friday.

Racing Insights, Friday 28/06/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have still managed to yield three qualifiers, but your own chosen parameters might give even more joy...

This free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.55 Yarmouth
  • 4.05 Yarmouth
  • 5.25 Newcastle
  • 6.40 Curragh
  • 8.20 Newcastle
  • 8.45 Newmarket

The highest-rated of the eight UK races listed above probably has a runner or two more than I'm normally comfortable with, but I think I'll still take a look at the 5.25 Newcastle, a 14-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard tapeta...

Copper Knight actually won this race in 2018 and was the runner-up in 2019, whilst the fast-finisher Vintage Clarets' sole A/W outing to date saw him home as the 12/1 winner in last year's renewal.

FORM : Navello and Copper Knight both won last time out, whilst Prince of Zenda, Navello, Ziggy's Missile and Mattice have all won at least two of their last six outings. Thunder Moor and Moonstone Boy both finished third on their last runs. Winless in seven or more, though are Makanah, Bergerac and Monsieur Kodi after 9, 7 and 9 consecutive defeats respectively.

CLASS : Ziggy's Missile and Copper Knight are both up one class, whilst it's a two-step rise for Moonstone Boy and Monsieur Kodi.

WHAT'S NEW : Project Dante makes a yard debut for Geoff Oldroyd and it's first time equipment/headgear for Thunder Moor (blinkers) and Ziggy's Missile (cheekpieces).

COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : All bar Brazen Bolt and Prince of Zenda have won over today's trip already, but this pair have at least won here at Newcastle in the past; the former over both 6f and 7f with the latter winning over 6f. We know that by winning this race in previous years that Vintage Clarets and Copper Knight are course and distance winners, but Bergerac also scored over track and trip last November.

LAST RAN : Most of the field have raced in the last five weeks, but Brazen Bolt returns from a 15-week layoff which isn't ideal, but it's hardly anything like that of Project Dante who hasn't been since finishing 14th of 19 at Doncaster in mid-September 2022!

Our two-year form snapshot on Instant Expert doesn't show a glut of A/W racing, but this is how they've fared in that time frame...

...where aside from Vintage Clarets' win here last year, Ziggy's Missile looks interesting. He's the only 3yr old in the race and gets a 6lbs allowance for that and his A/W form reads 1121, all over 5f with two wins at Southwell and 1 at Wolverhampton. His sole defeat was here at Newcastle over course and distance just before Easter when beaten by a head, getting caught late on by a horse that is 2 from 2 since.

Despite the abundance of red above, it's all off less than five runs, so I'd be reluctant to use this data to rule any of these out right now, but I would want to see them having made the frame a few times...

This speaks for itself, I think. The regular placers are the ones most likely to be involved again, so from Instant Expert, these are the ones I'm leaning towards...

I've taken five runners out so far (I left Copper Knight and Navello in on form), but I've still got horses strung across the full width of the stalls. That said, I'm not expecting a huge draw bias on a straight 5f on an artificial surface, but we'd better check, just in case.

And apart from a couple of stalls results looking a little anomalous, there probably isn't a massive amount to be gained from the draw in 13/14 runner 5f sprints on the tapeta here...

Perhaps the rail has helped stall 1 to win so often, which might encourage the connections of Mattice, whose sole A/W run to date saw him go down by just a shirt head over this course and distance. I'm not sure why stall 11 has fared so well though! The key here, of course, is likely to be pace, as those races have clearly those willing to set the early tempo...

...which based on the field's recent efforts probably provides more hope for the likes of Copper Knight, Prince of Zenda, Mattice and Thunder Moor than it does for Burning Cash and Vintage Clarets...

Interestingly, though, despite a real draw bias, the way pace and draw have worked together is interesting if you take a look at the pace/draw heat map...

If we then check back to the top end of the pace chart, we see that Copper Knight, Prince of Zenda, Mattice and Thunder Moor will emerge from stalls 4, 6, 1 and 12.

Summary

You could make a case for half the field to win this and I don't have a particularly strong leaning towards any of them, but from Instant Expert and the pace/draw heatmap I am interested in Copper Knight, Prince of Zenda and Mattice from at least a place perspective. Copper Knight is proven over track and trip and won last time out, so comes here in good nick too.

The bookies are paying four places (Sky go to 5, of course!), so I'm going to suggest Copper Knight, Prince of Zenda and Mattice as E/W possibles. The only book open at 5pm Thursday was Hills and they offered 13/2, 15/2 and 16/1 about this trio.

I'd also expect Vintage Clarets (15/2) and Navello (6/1) to run well, whilst it's not beyond the realms of possibility for Ziggy's Missile to continue his good A/W progress and make the frame at 12/1. In fact he might also be a live E/W prospect. I told you that I could make a case for several of these! It could be a cracking race.

Racing Insights, Thursday 27/06/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.00 Newcastle
  • 3.35 Newcastle
  • 4.30 Newmarket
  • 9.00 Leicester

...from which we're off to the July course at HQ for the 4.30 Newmarket, a 10-runner, Class 3 , 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

...a field where all bar Ararat have raced in the last four weeks. He returns from a nine-month absence but is the only LTO winner in this race. Elsewhere Mitrosonfire was a recent runner-up and both Benacre and Darkness made the frame on their last outings. The field are, however, a little shy of wins in their recent form lines as only Havana Blue (2 from 6), Persuasion, Ararat (2 from 4) and Lord Rapscallion have managed to win any of their last seven races.

Mitrosonfire, Able Kane and Waiting All Night might struggle to end their losing runs as they now step up a class here, as do LTO winner Ararat and bottom weight Lord Rapscallion, but Persuasion drops down a level.

Waiting All Night is the only runner in the field yet to win over this trip, as his sole win in 18 races to date was over 5f at Wolverhampton and he's 0 from 14 on turf but Darkness has won over a mile here at Newmarket, whilst Havana Blue, Ararat, Mitrosonfire and Able Kane are all former course and distance winners.

Instant Expert shows us quite clearly how difficult this field has found it to win over the last two years...

...with the returning Ararat probably the pick of the pack. I'm hoping that the place stats suggest that some of these have been unlucky, because I'm already getting question marks about Toimy Son (trip), Persuasion (class. track and trip), Mitrosonfire (trip), Darkness (going, class and trip), Able Kane (class & trip), Waiting All Night (trip) and Lord Rapscallion (Generally!); it might have been easier to say who I didn't have too many concerns about.

We'd better check those place stats!

...and they certainly show a few of these in a different light, especially Persuasion and Darkness. Their win stats make them hard to back outright, but they're certainly to strangers to making the frame. Benacre loves the trip and has placed here too, so these three could be a second look later along with Ararat (from the win stats) and maybe Havana Blue.

Benacre was a Listed class runner-up, beaten by just three quarters of a length over this trip on the Rowley track here last summer and that should stand him in good stead today as he lines up closest to the rail, now that Arabian Storm (who had been drawn in stall 1) has been withdrawn. That said, I don't think there's much to be gained from stalls position here today

...although those drawn higher have made the frame slightly more often, but there's really not a great deal in it and I suspect that much more will depend on race tactics, because the pace stats for those near-150 races above tells a pretty clear story...

...that being up with the pace is key here from both a win and place perspective. Leaders make up approximately 13.3% of the runners in those races, but have accounted for 28.5% of the winners, which speaks for itself and this looks like more good news for Ararat, Benacre and Darkness if their last few runs are anything to go by...

Summary

The above stats say that pace wins the race here over 7f and alphabetically Ararat, Benacre and Darkness are the three most likely to set the tempo of this contest. Ararat was the sole standout on the win side of our daily feature, Instant Expert, whilst Benacre and Darkness both had good place records, so I think that they're going to be my three against the field.

It's a bit of a gamble that Ararat will be race-sharp after nine months off, but if pushed to pick a winner, it'd be him and Hills were offering 7/1 at 4.15pm on Wednesday, which is bordering on E/W territory, never mind a win bet! Darkness and Benacre were trading at 11/2 and 6/12 respectively, so neither would take my fancy as an E/W bet, but I expect both to give a good account of themselves.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 26/06/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.15 Salisbury
  • 3.35 Carlisle
  • 6.00 Naas
  • 8.00 Naas
  • 8.40 Kempton

My personal preferred settings (you get to choose your own!) for the TS report...

...have yielded the following runners for me to consider...

...from which, the highest-rated is the free offering from Cumbria, the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Eternal Stakes shown on your race cards as the 3.35 Carlisle, a 9-runner Listed race for 3yo fillies over a right-handed 7f on good/good to firm ground that they're watering to stop it going bone dry...

Jabaara is 2 from 6 on the Flat and carries a 3lb penalty for winning a similar listed race at Musselburgh at the start of the month, whilst Key To Cotai also won her last start, albeit a 19-runner, Class 4 handicap just over seven weeks ago. Gaiety Musical was a runner-up (also at Class 4) on debut three weeks ago and Navassa Island was also in the frame, finishing third of thirteen in a 5½f Listed race at Cork just over six weeks ago. The inexperienced Gaiety Musical is the only one without a career win or a win inside seven starts.

So, we already know that both Gaiety Musical and Key To Cotai are making the big step up from Class 4 to Listed class and now we see that the fast-finisher Tierney also makes the same step, despite finishing 8th of 9, beaten by 7 lengths over 6f last time out; which makes this tough! Ahlain also steps up in class, having finished third of five at Class 2 in April and she now runs for the first time since undergoing wind surgery.

Star Music was last home of 16 in the 1000 Guineas just over seven weeks ago on her last run for Richard Hughes, she now wears a hood for the first as she makes a yard debut for James Tate, eased in class. None of the field have raced here at Carlisle before but all bar Gaiety Musical (obviously), Heritage House, Navassa Island and Tierney have already won over 7f...

Top-weight Jabaara looks to be the standout on wins on Instant Expert, but there's not actually a great deal of data to work with if truth be told. Most of them have won on similar ground, but Navassa Island is 0 from 6 at Class 1 and has a poor return over this trip, as do Lexington Belle and Heritage House, but Navassa Island might have been unlucky because she's a regular placer...

...having made the frame in five of her eight starts, including two Group 3 places and two Listed places, so she might be there or thereabouts if she handles the step up in trip to 7f. Key To Cotai also has good numbers, but it looks like the game's up today for Heritage House with the worst results in this field.

Top weight Jabaara is drawn widest of all in stall nine and that has been a problem in similar races here at Carlisle in the past, although if truth be told, I don't think that there's a hugely discernible draw bias...

...with stalls one to eight all having pretty similar records and it might well be race tactics aka pace that decides this one. Those 50-odd races featured above have been tough for hold-up horses with the uphill finish making it difficult to peg back those ahead...

...but the other three running styles have all won plenty of races, but the further forward a horse has raced, the greater has been the chance of a win or a place, which based on this field's most recent efforts...

...suggests that there might well be three of them battling for the early lead. The problem here, of course, is that that might all do too much too soon to grab the early lead, making themselves vulnerable to likes of regular placer Navassa Island and LTO Listed winner Jabaara, even if the pace/draw heat map does support those willing to lead...

Summary

Despite some of the above suggesting a contrary view to mine, I'm fairly certain that this ends up a Jabaara/Navassa Island 1-2 with the form horse beating the perennial placer and I'm not surprised that they're the top two in the market at Evens and 9/2 respectively*

Key To Cotai was next in the betting at 6/1, but she might find the step up in class tough to deal with and if I was tempted to look for an E/W bet, the 9/1 Star Music might be the one. She has been last home in both 2024 starts, but in her defence those races were the Gr3 Fred Darling and the Gr1 1000 Guineas! She's had a change of yard/scenery and will be hooded here, so could end up being the best of the rest; she's certainly got that potential.

*odds taken from Hills (only book open) at 3.25pm Tuesday

Racing Insights, Tuesday 25/06/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Huelgoat is the one of most immediate/obvious interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.17 Beverley
  • 3.00 Newton Abbot
  • 3.30 Newton Abbot
  • 4.00 Newton Abbot

I suspect Huelgoat will go off very short in a novice hurdle, a type of race I'm not keen on and the other two 'free' NH cards look like poor races too. The beverley race is a 6-runner affair for maiden fillies, so I'll swerve that too on a day where the racing is that poor that the 'best' and most valuable race of the day is a Class 4 contest worth less than £7500 to the winner. It's the 6.05 Newbury, a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m4f on good to firm ground and here's how they'll line up...

...where Raintown, a winner of two of his last six races is the only LTO winner, although top-weight Entrancement and Marhaba Million were both runners-up. The latter is a three-race maiden and Eben Zaabeel has yet to make the frame in any of his four outings, whilst In From The Cold and Wahraan are both on losing streaks of nine races, although six of the former's nine losses were actually over hurdles.

Sole filly and top-weight Entrancement is the only class mover today, as she drops down one level from a defeat by just a nose at Goodwood a month ago and although she's up 4lbs for that run, her victor, Ayyab was only beaten by 3.75 lengths in a Listed race at Pontefract yesterday (Sunday). Our two maidens, Marhaba Million and Eben Zaabeel both make handicap debuts today with the former wearing a visor for the first time.

This pair of maidens are both aged 3 and as such receive a very healthy 14lbs weight allowance for this contest, which should help their cause on handicap debut. Marhaba Million last ran just over seven weeks ago with only In from The Cold (112 days off) rested for longer, as most of the field have raced in the last two to three weeks.

Raintown is 2 from 2 over this trip at Lingfield (where he is 4 from 5 overall), but has failed to win any of eight starts on turf, but Graham won here over course and distance four races ago and has also scored over this trip at Salisbury. This pair aside, we're a little short on course and/or distance wins, as verified by Instant Expert...

...where Graham marginally looks the most suited of a bunch that really don't have much to crow about under today's conditions. That said, he hasn't fired at Class 4, but track and trip will be right up his street. Entrancement and Raintown look to be the best of the rest, but it's admittedly a pretty low bar. That said, these three runners are the pick at Class 5, too and both Graham and Entrancement made the frame on their only Class 3 outing (LTO for Entrancement as documented above).

Graham has been allocated stall 1, but past races suggest that drawn in stalls 5 and higher may have a bit of an advantage...

...but I wouldn't say that it was impossible to win from a low draw. There's not much to be gained from the pace stats from those races above...

...which suggests there's not really a right or a wrong way of approaching this race and the fact that any draw and any running style can win here is reflected in our pace/draw heat map where 7 of the 12 possible permutations are shown in green, suggesting Newbury's 1m4f trip is a fair one and the 'better' horses should be the winners...

Summary

When the pace, draw and pace/draw stats don't really identify a runner of interest and there's little help from Instant Expert, i tend to refer back to recent form and also gut feeling about who I think are the better runners in the pack.

The two maidens/handicap debutants could be dangerous with a huge weight allowance, but they're largely unknown quantities although Marhaba Million's results have been the better of the two and that's probably why Hills had him at 11/4 at 2.50pm on Monday, but those odds don't excite me.

The interest for me here in the class dropper Entrancement, who was only narrowly beaten last time out and a similar run here might make his 6/1 ticket look generous, whilst current 8/1 outsider and LTO winner Raintown could well be good enough for a place if finally transferring some of his recent excellent form to the Flat.

That said, this isn't a race to invest too heavily in on a day of pretty mediocre fayre.