Tag Archive for: Tix

Tix Picks, Thursday 05/12/24

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Thursday's racing comes from Chelmsford, Leicester, Market Rasen & Wincanton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Chelmsford...

We'll not follow the money onto the A/W scene today and we'll head for Leicester instead where soft/heavy ground is expected for our six races that kick off with...

Leg 1 @ 12.25...Dark Mix won a soft ground bumper on debut at Market Rasen this time last year and wasn't disgraced back at that same track when making a hurdles debut three weeks ago. despite not having raced for ten month, he was in contention until 2 out when he began to fade, eventually coming home 5th of the 12 runners. The third placed runner has since made the frame again, whilst the horse in fourth has won at Southwell. Got A Dream also faded late on in a hurdling debut after a break recently, finishing fourth of eleven some seven months after competing in a Grade 2 bumper at the Liverpool Festival. He's a soft ground bumper winner already and should come on for last month's reappearance.

Je Viens Du Large came within a neck of making the frame last time out, when fourth of twelve here over course and distance in a tougher race than this. He drops down in class here and his yard are in decent nick right now. Lawrenny steps up in class on his seasonal reappearance after a nine month break following his win in a heavy ground bumper at Newcastle back in March which came almost eight weeks after he'd been a runner-up on soft ground at Sedgefield. So I suspect the underfoot conditions will be fine, it's just a case of whether he takes to hurdling.

Sixmilebridge won a Class 2 bumper on debut back in February before tackling the Gr1 Champion Bumper at Cheltenham in March where he was ultimately well beaten. There's no disgrace in that, of course and the market deemed him worth of being the 11/10 fav on his hurdles debut five weeks ago, but the effects of an eight month break saw him headed late on in a 1.25 length defeat. The third placed horse was a further 1.5 lengths back and he went on to win by 12 lengths at Hereford last week.

(7) Sixmilebridge drops in class now and with the benefit of that near miss under his belt, should be the one to beat here with (2) Got A Dream and possibly (1) Dark Mix best poised to challenge.

Leg 2 @ 12.55...Pearl Island improved steadily over hurdles and was third of nine at Ludlow six weeks ago, despite being off track for over five months. This looks a modest race for a chase debut for a yard who have been going well of late and tend to do well with chasers. Jikala only has four races under her belt and won over hurdles at Hereford two starts ago. Sadly that was in March 2023 and she hasn't been seen for 589 days since finishing fourth at Ludlow. I'd be interested here had she had a more recent outing, but I fear she'll need the run. Shesupincourt was third over course and distance less than three weeks ago when the good to firm ground was a little too quick for her. All her best form and her two career wins have been on soft/heavy ground, so conditions here could be ideal for a horse that stays 3m+ in the mud.

Williamdeconqueror has finished 2525332 in his last six over fences and stays 3m2f in the mud as shown at Chepstow on his last run. he hasn't raced since February, but was only beaten by a short head on last year's seasonal reappearance after a break. Everyonesacritic might not strike you as a contender on recent form and his 4th of 7 at Ludlow most recently was a modest effort, but that was 2m on good ground. Elsewhere, he has place form on soft ground and at 3m1½f, so longer and softer than LTO at Ludlow are what he needs and he did win a soft ground handicap hurdle off 2lbs higher at Musselburgh earlier this season.

That said, I don't think Everyonesacritic is as good as the other four and with Jikala probably needing a run, my 1-2 here would be (5) Williamdeconqueror and (4) Shesupincourt with (1) Pearl Island my backup plan.

Leg 3 @ 1.25...I'd expect this to be a two-horse affair between the first two on the card.

Inside Man has two wins and a runner-up finish from five starts over hurdles and turned over a 4/6 fav at Exeter 17 days ago. He does carry a penalty, of course, for that win, but he's race fit and in good form, whereas the lightly raced Carismatic Soldier has just one bumper run to his name and hasn't been seen for nine months.

That said, he went well enough on debut to finish second on soft ground with the nest runner a further seven lengths back in a well strung out field. I'm taking his fitness and jumping on trust, mainly because the others in the race make less appeal, although UK debutant Authodidacte did win two of his last five on the Flat in France.

I'll stick with (1) Inside Man & (2) Carismatic Soldier here though.

Leg 4 @ 1.55...Well, this looks an awful field of ten runners with a collective career record of 7 wins from 111 runs and if we ignore Mr Zee's 6 wins and 5 places from 41 races, his rivals have just one win and three places from seventy between them! That said, three horses have to make the frame and I'm hoping that the least worst of them are...

(2) Trust House is the other winner in the pack, having scored over 1m4f at Ripon four starts ago. has shown little in three over hurdles so far, but drops in class for a yard & trainer in good recent form and with good course records.

(9) Mr Zee is the one with the wins under his belt, admittedly all on the Flat/AW at 1m2f-1m4f, but winning is better than losing in any sphere. he has two wins and a place from five on soft ground, a similar record here at Leicester and was a runner-up over 2m at Kempton earlier in the year.

(7) Nedzor also drops in class for a handicap debut and was third on soft ground on debut at Chepstow this time last year and was fourth on his third/last run at the same track back in January on heavy ground. The mud won't be an issue, but the lay-off might.

Leg 5 @ 2.25...Just five go to post for this one and I'm of the opinion that Mcgrath From Clune and My Portia will both need the run after six months off and that neither of them are as good as the other three and the market will probably back that assertion up, which leaves us with three.

I do, however, think that I'm against the market in terms of how they'll finish, because I expect (1) Davids Well to be very short if last night's tissues are anything to go by. He won convincingly (14 lengths) over hurdles at Plumpton on soft ground in February but was only 8th of 14 at Newbury a month later, beaten by 23 lengths and hasn't raced for 258 days since and that last run plus the lay-off make me think he might be a false favourite on chase debut.

(3) Samazul on the other hand won a soft ground chase over 2m2f at Fontwell in October and can be excused an indifferent effort on quicker ground over a longer trip at the same track four weeks ago, whilst (4) Johnny Mac has three wins from his last six starts, is 2 from 3 here at Leicester, has won on both soft and heavy ground and is 2 from 2 here over course and distance. His record in 2m chases reads 31117 and he's 3lbs lower than his last C&D win from this time last year.

Safety first here from me, though, as I'll take all three despite my reservations about Davids Well. If my tickets are still alive at this point, I'm not getting burnt by a shortie!

Leg 6 @ 3.00...A wide open finale, where the two form horses are Easy To Follow and Shantwopointfive.

(7) Shantwopointfive is still unexposed after one bumper run and two over hurdles and her career form reads 221, getting off the mark over 2m6f at Cartmel last time and she was a heavy ground runner-up on debut. She hasn't raced since that win back in late May, so we'll take her fitness on trust. An opening handicap mark of 107 doesn't seem too onerous and her yard have 16 wins from 53 (30.2%) with LTO winners...

(3) Easy To Follow has only raced five times in total and after a third place on soft ground in her sole bumper, she has finished 1142 over hurdles, all on heavy ground apart from her two length defeat as a runner-up on handicap debut at Bangor five weeks ago. That was on soft ground, though and came after nine months off the track, so she could well come on again, especially with underfoot conditions to suit.

If I'm honest, they're the two to beat here and there's not much jumping out at me from the rest of the card, so I'll just stick with this pair.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (7) Sixmilebridge, (2) Got A Dream & (1) Dark Mix

Leg 2: (5) Williamdeconqueror, (4) Shesupincourt & (1) Pearl Island

Leg 3: (1) Inside Man & (2) Carismatic Soldier

Leg 4: (2) Trust House, (9) Mr Zee & (7) Nedzor

Leg 5: (1) Davids Well, (3) Samazul & (4) Johnny Mac

Leg 6: (7) Shantwopointfive & (3) Easy To Follow

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Tix Picks, Wednesday 04/12/24

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Wednesday's racing comes from Dundalk, Haydock, Kempton, Lingfield & Ludlow.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Haydock...

It has been pretty wet up here in the North West of late and that's generally means one thing at Haydock : heavy ground! And that's how it is for this six-race card that kicks off with...

Leg 1 @ 12.40...East Street has two wins and a place from five efforts over hurdles. Has been chasing for the past two years but now reverts back to the smaller obstacles on the back of two good wins over fences. he runs off the same weight as his last hurdle run/win, which is 7lbs lower than his last run/win over fences.

Kiss My Face showed signs of a return to form when a winner at Worcester in the summer and he was also a three-quarter length runner-up to stablemate Butlers Brief at Bangor at the end of October, but will need to put a poor LTO run at Exeter behind him.

Artic Mann has made the frame in half of his 18 efforts over hurdles to date and was only beaten by just over five lengths at Kelso last time out on his return from a 164-day absence, having won his previous race at Perth and his form since October 2023 reads 233422313, so I expect him to be involved again here.

It's Maisy has made the frame in six of nine over hurdles, winning four times, but a combination of a 5lbs weight rise and a 188-day absence meant that she only managed 6th of 10 at Bangor last time out. She did win her last race before the break, though and today's jockey takes 3lbs off her, so she should be competitive here.

I can make a case for all four of these plus Atomic Angel based on her past performances in the mud, but it's (1) East Street and (7) It's Maisy for me with (5) Artic Mann as the backup.

Leg 2 @ 1.10...White Rhino finished 111212134 in handicap hurdles at 2m4f to 3m1f including a Class 2 success at Cheltenham last December. He made a chase debut at Ayr almost five weeks ago and despite not having raced for 231 days, had enough about him to win by two lengths and should improve for the run.

President Scottie was placed in two of three bumpers in 2023 and made the frame in four of five over hurdles, winning twice including a 25 length success at Ayr over 2m4½f and here at Haydock over three miles. Soft/heavy ground is no issue either.

Heros De Romay is another chase debutant and his overall record on heavy reads 1133. He had a win and a place from his two bumpers and was placed 133 over hurdles, although he was beaten by 28 lengths as 3rd of 8 in a hot race at Cheltenham last time out (January) which was much tougher race than this one.

Beneficially Yours is relatively inexperienced with just three runs under Rules (all over hurdles) behind him, but he di finish 311 in those, winning by 51 and 36 lengths on heavy ground. He's also an Irish PTP winner and represents the locally-favoured McCain yard, but does step up in class here.

The two I like best for this are (3) White Rhino and (6) Beneficially Yours and I've little between the other two, but (4) President Scottie might just offer a bit more value.

Leg 3 @ 1.40...Carrig Kate headed my four-runner shortlist that I drew up for this race last night and was my one to beat, but she was withdrawn this morning, leaving me with just three straight picks and in order of preference, they would be...

(7) Ski Lodge was a runner-up on debut in a heavy ground bumper at Chepstow a year ago and followed that up with a win at the same track, trip and going at the end of January before going back to the shed for 285 days. He probably needed the run on his return but still managed 7th of 15 and with his heavy ground win and the prospect of improving for having had a pipe opener, he'd be my tentative pick in an open-looking but weak race.

(2) Grand Geste too a little while for the penny to drop, but came very close to winning at 200/1 at Carlisle last time out, only being headed on the line. He's by no means reliable to do the same again, but the race lacks depth and appears weaker than that Carlisle one.

(5) Martin Plage made a promising start to his hurdles career when only beaten by eight lengths at Wetherby in mid-October, despite having been off the track for 202 days. He should come on for that run and could well make the frame here.

The danger here might come from the unknown Jo Coko who changed hands for over £100k after winning his sole PTP at Lisronagh back in February.

Leg 4 @ 2.15...I'll split the field in half here and focus on...

(1) Circuit Breaker is the most experienced runner in the field and he won on soft ground over 1m2f on the Flat on debut at Windsor in May 2023. He won on his A/W debut at Kempton (2m) in September 2023 and after changing hands for 260,000 Guineas earlier this year, was an easy 16 lengths winner on his hurdling debut at Kempton 45 days ago, despite a five month break. I expect him to improve further with the run/experience behind him.

(2) Crest Of Fortune won a Class 5 heavy ground bumper at Wincanton on debut a year ago, but a step up to Class 2 proved too much as he was beaten at Newbury next time out. That said, he wasn't disgraced in a 6 length defeat as 5th home of 20 behind the winner Regents Stroll who is now 3 from 3, having since won a Class 3 hurdle at Newbury by ten lengths five weeks ago, whilst Crest Of Fortune also scored next/last time out, getting home by 6.5 lengths at Ffos Las just over three weeks ago. Trip & going should be fine.

(5) Royal Infantry is an interesting one, having won a PTP at Edgcote in April 2023 ahead of an 18-length success on his debut under Rules in a Doncaster bumper back in January of this year. He then stepped up from Class 5 to a Listed bumper on heavy ground at Newbury a month later and won that too before finishing in midfield in the Grade 1 Champion Bumper at this year's Cheltenham Festival. He recently returned from an eight month break to win on hurdles debut at Chepstow and if reproducing his bumper form over hurdles could be a good prospect for the Skeltons.

I do like all three, but I think that (5) Royal Infantry and (2) Crest Of Fortune are the two to go with.

Leg 5 @ 2.45...(1) Empire Steel won a Listed Chase in March 2023 and a Class 2 handicap in February of this year, both at Kelso. He handles the mud well enough and has made the frame in four of his eight runs at trips of 3m½f to 3m1½f, whilst (2) Cloudy Glen is nine without a win since landing the Grade 3 Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury way back in November 2021, but has been plying his trade in better races than this one and was a Class 1 runner-up at Cheltenham just over a year ago. He's something to prove here, but he's 14112 after a break, 113 here at Haydock, he likes the mud and has a stack of supporting stats...

(3) Good Boy Bobby has made the frame in 13 of 22 (7 wins) on soft/heavy ground and although he is winless in six since back to back wins at Chepstow and Sandown in October/November last year, he has finished third in three of those defeats.

Bottom weight and oldest runner at 13yo, (7) Up Helly Aa King Two completes my shortlist for this one. He's a prolific (15 from 24) placer over fences with a 25% career win strike rate in chases and was a winner at Kelso last time out. That was almost eight months ago, mind, and his best form has come off breaks of less than two months so he might need the run.

The lack of a recent run means that I'll omit Up Helly Aa King Two and although Cloudy Glen hasn't won for three years, he'd be the one I fancy here ahead of both Good Boy Bobby and Empire Steel.

Leg 6 @ 3.18...A very open/tricky looking fnale awaits us and cases can be made for most of them, particularly the following...

Blue Fin who won two starts ago on soft ground at Carlisle after a 203-day break and was then only beaten by two lengths there last time out despite a 5lb weight rise. First-time cheekpieces should help today and he's definitely in the mix for me.

Hazy Glen won a heavy ground bumper on debut in October 2023 and made the frame in all three starts over hurdles last season finishing 223, so if race ready after a nine-month break would be a contender for another place at least.

Guard Duty makes a handicap debut off the back of a win and a third of thirteen in a pair of Class 4 Novice Hurdles at Uttoxeter this 'summer'. He also won his debut bumper and Team Lavelle are in pretty good nick right now with 5 winners from 21 over the last fortnight.

Jet Marshall steps up in class and hasn't raced for 671 days, but he did win on handicap debut at Wincanton when last seen. He's also up 3lbs for that win and I think this might be too much for him, but next time out, perhaps?

Bottom weight Haarar won back to back hurdle races at Southwell and Cartmel in May this year and comes here off the back of a soft ground handicap win over 1m6f on the Flat demonstrating that if he jumps well enough, he'll be plenty quick between the flights.

That ground speed from (11) Haarar could well catapult him into the frame and I'm happy to put him on my ticket builder, but I suspect he gets beaten by (5) Guard Duty and (2) Blue Fin, who I have closer to each other than the bookies do!

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) East Street, (7) It's Maisy & (5) Artic Mann

Leg 2: (3) White Rhino, (6) Beneficially Yours & (4) President Scottie

Leg 3: (7) Ski Lodge, (2) Grand Geste & (5) Martin Plage

Leg 4: (5) Royal Infantry & (2) Crest Of Fortune

Leg 5: (2) Cloudy Glen, (3) Good Boy Bobby & (1) Empire Steel

Leg 6: (2) Blue Fin, (5) Guard Duty & (11) Haarar

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Tix Picks, Tuesday 03/12/24

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Tuesday's racing comes from Clonmel, Lingfield, Southwell & Newcastle.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Newcastle...

And despite the larger pot being offered at Newcastle, I'm reminded that most people prefer the NH to the A/W at this time of year, so we're off to Southwell for the following six races...

Leg 1 @ 12.15...Jaramillo won by 12 lengths over hurdles at 2m4f at Sedgefield in September and was a half length runner-up back over the same course and distance last time out off 9lbs higher and if taking to fences should go well. Theformismighty was an Irish PTP winner and a 15 length winner over hurdles at Market Rasen three starts ago. Finished a solid 4th of 14 on chase debut five weeks ago, beaten by less than six lengths and looks a real player down in class.

Yes Day has made the frame in five of eight starts to date, including a 3rd of 8 on chase debut at Warwick four weeks ago, despite coming off a 222 day absence. The trip is no issue, as he actually stays 3m and he should come on for the run. Awaythelad finished 211 over hurdles in December/January last season before a step up in class/weight stopped him progressing in the spring. He took 203 days off and reappeared to make a good chase debut at Lingfield three weeks ago, where he was 3rd of 11, beaten by just five lengths and the two horses from that race (6th & 8th) who have ran again both made the frame next time out.

Kaituna River completes my shortlist for this one and he's a former Irish PTP winner who has finished 6313 in his four hurdles runs to date, so he comes here in good nick for his chase debut. I'm not sure he has what it takes to win this race just yet, but if transferring his form to fences, could well. His jumping seemed sound in his PTP effort.

The two I like best here are (5) Awaythelad and (3) Theformismighty and any of the other three above could quite well make the frame, so I'll take a chance with (7) Kaituna River for some potential value.

Leg 2 @ 12.45...This isn't a particularly strong race as you'll see by the quality of the ones that I expect to fare better than the others!

Neigh Botha's last seven runs started and ended with course and distance wins; over fences last June and over hurdles a week ago with results of 3P343 in between the two. He reverts back to fences off the same mark as last week's hurdles success and a similar run here should be more than plenty. Extraordinary Man is probably next best, despite a shocking 1 from 20 career record. That said, his sole win was over fences at Hereford eleven months after a 156-day absence. This year, he started again at Hereford and was a solid 4th of 12 after 287 days off and a wind op. His last five read 122P4 and he should come on for the run.

Abaya Du Mathan runs for the 89th time and has a reasonable 12.5% strike rate during his career, making the frame in 40 of 88 races (45.5%). he was a course and distance winner back in January, won at Warwick in April and comes here off the back of two fourth placed finishes. He's no spring chicken at the age of 12 but could be involved off the same mark as his last win. Bottom-weight Haafback is interesting after two poor bumpers (9th of 13 and 9th of 10) were followed by only one decent effort over hurdles (P9920) and after finishing last of eleven at Stratford on his fifth attempt, he went back to the shed for six months. He came back at Ludlow as a 2m chaser almost four weeks ago and pretty much made all to win at the first crack and the experience should benefit him.

Of the four, I think I'll omit the old boy Abaya Du Mathan and use (7) Haafback as my backup to (1) Neigh Botha and (2) Extraordinary Man.

Leg 3 @ 1.15...Berkenshtaaap won a 3m PTP in ireland and was then sold for £45,000 and now makes a yard debut for Olly Murphy, whosr bumper runners have a 21.6% win and 49.4% place strike rate and have 4 wins & 6 places from 21 here at Southwell. Clearisthewater needed three cracks at PTP racing to get off the mark and although not ripping trees up just yet and ran pretty well in a pair of UK bumpers so far. Yard is in good nick and the horse does at least have experience on his side.

Hestina Hill is an interesting debutant for the Skelton yard. He's by Kingston Hill and out of Hestina who won three times over hurdles for this yard and also twice over 1m4f on the Flat. The horse has already been gelded and has had a wind op. Star Artist is a half brother to Urban Artist, a 3-time winner at 1m3f/1m4f and in a couple of bumpers. he ran to a reasonable level on debut at Huntingdon nine months ago, finishing fourth and beaten by less than six lengths and should go well again here.

Of these four, I prefer (1) Berkenshtaaap and (7) Star Artist in equal measures, as will the market probably and I think that whilst Clearisthewater has the ability to outrun a big price (20/1 E/W might not be a bad side bet), (3) Hestina Hill might be a better Plan B.

Leg 4 @ 1.45...Not a great deal to go off here of course, but I've spilt the field in two to concentrate on this half...

Inishnabro is a half-brother to a pair of winning hurdlers and won a PTP by 10 lengths in April. He didn't get near the winner on his hurdles debut three weeks ago, going down by 12L, but he ran well enough to be second of the twelve runners and the fourth placed horse won here over course and distance a week ago. Jordans Cross won his sole PTP by five lengths in March and only went down by half a length on his debut under Rules when a runner-up in a Chepstow bumper four weeks ago.

Law Of The Sea brings plenty of race experience to the table as a former Class 2 stayer on the Flat, but has yet to impress over hurdles. That said, his second effort (5th of 14) at Chepstow five weeks ago was better than his opening effort at Uttoxeter three weeks earlier and similar improvement gives him a chance of making the frame. Le Fauve is possibly/probably the one to beat here. Yet to win a race, but has finished in the frame on three of four starts over hurdles (3523), all in better races than this ie 3rd on debut in an Aintree Listed race, 5th at Grade 2 (Cheltenham) before a Class 3 second and a solid 3rd of 11 at Chepstow eight weeks ago despite coming off a break of 224 days.

Sun Art ran well enough on debut, finish in midfield of a 12-runner bumper at Worcester just seven weeks ago and followed that up by finishing third of twelve on hurdles debut at Market Rasen almost three weeks ago, a place and 1.5 lengths behind the re-opposing Inishnabro and a short head in front of last week's winner Achille Des Rocs. he's probably held by Inishnabro on that run, but shoud still put a decent effort in.

I could easily take all five, but my preferred approach would be (4) Jordans Cross & (6) Le Fauve against the field with (3) Inishnabro a marginal pick over the other two. As an aside, Inishnabro, Sun Art and Law Of The Sea should all be at very backable E/W odds as I expect the market will be keen on Jordans Cross & Le Fauve.

Leg 5 @ 2.15...If anything, the second division of the above race looks weaker than the first to the extent that I was looking at Ben Pauling's newcomer Bank On Frank as a likely placer based on the form of the field. Sadly, he doesn't run and my shortlist is down to two, possibly three runners...

I suspect this is a two-way battle between the top two on the card Daytime Dreaming and Disguisedlimit. Daytime Dreaming was second on his sole PTP outing nine months ago and made a promising start under Rules when 4th of 10 over hurdles at Uttoxeter just over six weeks ago. That looked a tougher/deeper race than this one and the winner, runner-up, third and fifth from that race have all re-appeared to make the frame since.

Disguisedlimit was a five length winner on his sole PTP effort back in April and finished third of ten over hurdles at Chepstow almost two months ago on his Rules debut. he looked unsettled that day and despite leading until 3 out faded out of contention to finish 44 lengths behind the winner. He'll wear a hood here to help settle him and the runner-up from that race has since won by 29 lengths at Market Rasen.

I'm just going to take this pair, but if you wanted a longshot, then Portcammon might (or might not!) be better than a price higher than 20/1 would suggest. He won a bumper on debut for Willie Mullins in August 2023 and was 4th in another a year later before finishing 7th of 20 on his hurdles debut. All of which seemed reasonable if slow progress, but that was his last run for the Mullins yard and he didn't shine on his debut for new handlers when beaten by 57 lengths at Newbury four weeks ago, so his price will reflect his lack of reliability, but this is a poor race, so who knows?

Leg 6 @ 2.45...Craven Bay is 1121 since moving to his current yard and stepping up to trips beyond 3m. he does carry a 7lb penalty for a win at Kempton eight days ago, but he seemed comfortable when scoring by the best part of four lengths so should be in the mix once more. Space Voyage finished 14111 from June '22 to April '23 and then seemed to labour off higher marks up in class before a drop to a rating of 117 saw her win by a neck at Perth in April. She was then 5th of 14 at Aintree before a six month break. Her return just over three weeks ago was a 7.5 length defeat in mid-field of a 12-runner Wincanton contest, but she is now back on her last winning mark.

Toonagh Warrior is a consistent placer over hurdles, making the frame in 6 of 10 starts, including last time out, when beaten here at Southwell over a trip half a mile shorter than today. He's never been asked to go beyond 2m4½f but always gives it his all, rarely runs a bad race and finished 3212 in the last quarter of 2023, so goes well at this time of year. Form horse Mr Hope Street is another tackling 3m+ for the first time, but his form over 2m4f/2m5f in his last three outings reads 112 and was only denied a hat-trick at Carlisle last time out by half a length as he came back from a five month break. Those last three runs were much better than his 2m/2m1f form (457508) and he may well be that another step up in trip is the way forward.

Tzarmix completes my shortlist today and he's one of those consistent but not quite there types. I don't think he's that far away from putting some good runs together and he did win and place at 2m4f/2m5½f in the spring of 2023 before seeming to lose his way in handicaps off marks around 115/116, but he did go well last time out after dropping to a mark of 107 and was a solid 3rd of 11 at Wetherby seven weeks ago. More improvement is needed off that same mark here, but he does get weight from most of the field.

And I think I'll have (1) Craven Bay & (6) Mr Hope Street as my two main picks from this one with with consistent perma-placer (3) Toonagh Warrior the backup plan.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (5) Awaythelad, (3) Theformismighty & (7) Kaituna River

Leg 2: (1) Neigh Botha. (2) Extraordinary Man & (7) Haafback

Leg 3: (1) Berkenshtaaap, (7) Star Artist & (3) Hestina Hill

Leg 4: (4) Jordans Cross, (6) Le Fauve & (3) Inishnabro

Leg 5: (2) Daytime Dreaming & (3) Disguisedlimit

Leg 6: (1) Craven Bay, (6) Mr Hope Street & (3) Toonagh Warrior

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Tix Picks, Monday 02/12/24

/in /by

Monday's racing comes from Ffos Las, Plumpton & Wolverhampton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Wolverhampton...

I do tend to just play the card with the highest guaranteed pot, but heavy ground was forecasted at Ffos Las which was more interesting and became my plan last night.
Sadly the Welsh track failed an inspection this morning making me glad I hadn't done analysis early! We'll revert back to following the money and head to Wolverhampton's tapeta for six races starting with...

Leg 1 @ 4.30...(1) Poetic Force has five wins and four places from nineteen here at Wolverhampton and has been the runner-up at Brighton eight weeks ago and here at Wolverhampton nine days ago on his last two runs and should go well again. (5) Dayman hasn't won for some time and has dropped to a mark some 17lbs lower than his last win. He's a former course and distance winner, who ran well around this time last year and his yard do well with runners coming back from a break.

(7) Snooze Lane rarely runs a bad race, so can be excused finishing 6th of 9 here over 1m½f last time out. He was denied a run and got bumped about a bit and the end result was that he failed to be in the first four home for only the second time in twelve starts. He's generally reliable and consistent and should bounce back here. (8) Yoshimi was third at Southwell most recently (a month ago) backing up a nice win at Chelmsford and should be a player here a pound lower than his last run.

The in-form (9) Gilt Edge has three wins and two places from eight starts in 2024 and won here over course and distance by a head last time out despite coming from off the pace. She finished strongly that day and if she gets going a little sooner today, there's no reason why she can't at least make the frame. I suspect she might have to play second fiddle to Poetic Force, but she's going on my ticket, as is Yoshimi.

Leg 2 @ 5.00...(3) Lady Wingalong has made the frame in ten of twelve starts in 2024, winning three times in total, the latest being at Lingfield eleven days ago when she ran on well to lead inside the final furlong, eventually getting home by a length and a quarter. She looked to still have something in hand and although up 3lbs for that latest win and up 18lbs all year, she's still the one to best for me.
(6) Mokaatil usually runs over 6f, but has previously made the frame here over course and distance. He's a consistent sort who is kept very busy, as 24 runs in 2024 will testify, Like the runner above, he has 3 wins and 7 places from his last 12 and he runs off his last winning mark.

(9) A Pint Of Bear will probably attempt to make all off a mark 2lbs lower than when only denied by a shorthead here over course and distance in early October and if afforded the chance to lead could well make the frame yet again, but he'd be an unlikely winner for me and I suspect he finishes behind both the two horses named above and also the bottom weight (11) Plumette who has gone well of late, finishing 423 here at Wolverhampton in his three starts since re-joining David Loughnane's yard, for whom she did win over course and distance during his first spell and off much higher marks. She seems most at home here with this trainer and could have a big say off a feather weight.

Leg 3 @ 5.30...I can't help but think that this should be a two-horse shootout between the top two in the weights, (1) Georginio and (2) Patrol in a race low on depth and quality.

Georginio is noted as a fast finisher and drops in class here representing a yard whose runners have made the frame in 6 off 11 starts over the last fortnight. The horse has made the frame in two of his last three, whilst looking like needing further than the 7f/1m he has been running at. This trip should be a better test.

Patrol didn't really show for William Haggas, but was a good second of twelve on his yard debut for Dylan Cunha six weeks ago, going down by just a length and a half. Pine Cliffs was fourth that day, a further 4.5 lengths back, but he won at Chelmsford next time out which is a positive.

If you wanted a third pick, then (8) Sol Argent showed some promise on his A/W debut and first time in a handicap when also second of twelve last time out. That was here at Wolverhampton over a trip a furlong shorter than today. He was five lengths behind the odds on favourite, but he field was fairly strung out behind him, so he could place again.

Leg 4 @ 6.00...As with the previous race, my shortlist is only three runners deep ie (2) Capla Lazarus, (7) Steps In Time and (10) Waiting In Love. If truth be told, I've little on my own notes to separate the thtee, but Capla might just be slightly weaker, although there's liitle in it for me.

Capla Lazarus has the benefit of a 7lb claimer as he makes his A/W debut after a couple of decent efforts at Beverley and Nottingham over similar trips to this one. Steps In Time's sole outing saw him finish as a runner-up over this course and distance three weeks ago finishing strongly to take second late on in a 1.75 length defeat to a 4/11 favourite, whilst Waiting For Love will be hoping to go one better than when second of six sent off as an 11/8 fav on debut at Chelmsford eighteen days ago where the more experienced Space Trooper had too much late speed for him over 7f. The step up in trip (his dam won over a mile) should help here.

Leg 5 @ 6.30...(1) Oakley Boy won for the sceond time in four A/W starts when landing a 5f sorint at Lingfield eleven days ago in a first-time visor, but has also won at xchelmsford over today's trip. The visor remains and he's only up 3lbs, so in with a shout again. (2) Chuti Manika drops in class after a near three length defeat over this trip on soft ground at Doncaster and his trainer/jockey work well together (12 wins and 12 further places from 50 over the last year). he has won over 7f Catterick, but usually finds one 9or more) a bit too good for him, despite rarely getting beaten by far.

(4) Jane Garfield is a nother consistent type who doeshn't win often enough, or not yet (0/7 so far) in her case. She 4th of 12 over courde and distance last time out, beaten by less then three quarters of a length and goes again off the same mark. She'll be there or thereabouts as alsways, but she's just missing something, whereas (8) Piranha Rama has yet to finish outside of the first three home in seven Nurseries this year, winning three times including at Chelmsford last time out, where she gamely stayed on to win by a neck. She's up 3lbs for that run, making this tougher, but she's the one to beat for me.

The last one in my considerations is (11) Dubai Magic who was third in that Chelmsford race won by Piranha Rama, beaten by just over half a length. She's now 3lbs better off with the winner and that should make this a tight affair. Dubai Magic has raced here before, going down by just a nose over 5f at the end of September when the line just came a little too soon for her flying finish.

So, it's (8) Piranha Rama, (1) Oakley Boy & (11) Dubai Magic for me here.

Leg 6 @ 7.00...(1) Dance Time was a runner-up at Southwell over 1m4f three starts ago and looked like needing further, which she got when asked to run 2m½f here at Wolverhampton last time out. In truth, that trip seemed to stretch her but she stuck to the task and stayed on well to win by a neck and should be suited by a drop back to 1m6f here. She's down in class and her yard has 10 placers from 21 over the last 30 days. Conor Planas claims 3lbs here and he has ridden 10 of those 21 races, winning 3 times and placing in 2 more.

(7) Black Smoke comes from a yard with 15 placers from 28 over the last 30 days and he himself was third of ten over course and distance last time out taking his C&D record to 2 wins and four places from nine starts (248131353) this year.

(10) Alex The Great was also third of ten over course and distance on his last run despite going off as the 2/1 fav and will need to step his game up off a 3lb higher mark if he's to win here. He did, however, win over today's trip on Southwell's Tapeta two starts ago off 2lbs lower, the same mark as when a C&D runner-up here in September, so I wouldn't rule him out completely, as goes for the recently winless but consistent (11) Swinging London. He is admittedly tough to back on a run of 27 defeats in all codes and with a 0 from 9 record on the A/W, so you might think I've lost my mind suggesting him as an option, but he has finished 322 in his last three taking advantage of a falling (but unchanged here) mark. I suspect he'll be involved yet again here, but I certainly don't advocate backing him to win and I'm not sure he'd be my second fav here.

For me, Dance Time should be winning this and aside from that, it looks a bit of a bunfight for the places. The three I've mentioned should all go well, as could several others, but I'm taking all four above and hoping for the best!

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Poetic Force, (9) Gilt Edge & (8) Yoshimi

Leg 2: (3) Lady Wingalong, (6) Mokaatil & (11) Plumette

Leg 3: (1) Georginio, (2) Patrol & (8) Sol Argent

Leg 4: (10) Waiting In Love, (7) Steps In Time & (2) Capla Lazarus

Leg 5: (8) Piranha Rama, (1) Oakley Boy & (11) Dubai Magic

Leg 6: (1) Dance Time, (7) Black Smoke, (10) Alex The Great & (11) Swinging London

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck, as always!
Chris

Tix Picks, Saturday 30/11/24

/in /by

Saturday's racing comes from Doncaster, Fairyhouse, Newbury & Newcastle.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a huge £150,000 placepot guarantee at Newbury in addition to a guarantee of £50k at Newcastle...

I do like to be in for a penny, in for a pound, so let's head for the soft ground at Newbury for six races, starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.07...The bookies seem to think that this is a four-horse race and I'd be inclined to agree with them.

(1) Sansrisk comes here seeking a hurdles hat-trick having won a Grade 3 race at Down Royal at the start of the month. That race probably wasn't the best Gr 3 you'll see, but she does technically drop in class here and is clearly in good nick. Had a win and a place in her last two bumpers before that pair of hurdles wins too and her jockey is flying right now, making the frame in 36 (50.7%) of his 71 rides over the last month, winning 18 times (25.4%)

(2) Listentoyourheart also comes here seeking a hat-trick of her own after wins at Classes 4 and 2. She also had a win and two silvers from four bumpers and was a very creditable 5th of 16 in a Grade 2 bumper at this year's Aintree Festival. Her most recent win was over today's course and distance and she loos like a horse on the rise.

(4) Jubilee Alpha was a runner-up in that Aintree bumper above three lengths ahead of Listentoyourheart, which suggests that she might go well here today, but we'd have to take both her fitness and her hurdling on trust as she hasn't raced since then, nor has she raced over hurdles, as her only other previous run was a two-length success in a Class 5 bumper at Wincanton ten months ago. Mind you, she's trained by Paul Nicholls, so you know she'll have been well schooled.

(9) Walkadina completes the shortlist here and comes here off the back of both a recent run and a win over hurdles, achieved in an easy 13 lengths success at Uttoxeter four weeks ago despite not having raced for 191 days. It wasn't a great race (Class 4), but the distant runner-up has since won by 11 lengths at the same grade.

Walkadina has every right to improve for her last run, but I feel that she's starting from a lower point than the other three I mentioned, so she's the one to miss out, sadly.

Leg 2 @ 12.40...This looks like a race likely to be dominated by the top half of the card and top weight (1) Fidelio Vallis comes here off the back of a win last time out and a last four form form line reading 2241 since moving to his current yard, all of which is good, but he hasn't raced since winning on New Year's Day and is up 6lbs for that four length success. (2) Le Milos races off a mark 2lbs lower than when he won a Class 1 handicap at this meeting back in 2022, which at the time was his fourth win in five races. A hike in weight put paid to further wins and he has finished 2030075 since, but now finally drops back to a weight we know he can win off, if the old ability is still there.

(3) Twinjets started his chase career this time last year with a decent third of nine at Ascot followed up by a win at Doncaster in December. He looked like needing the run after 288 days off when 5th of 11 at Chepstow last month, but was unlucky to bump into a progressive type last out, finishing second here at Newbury over 2m4f and I suspect the step back up in trip will help. (4) Inch House finished 431 over hurdles before showing a similar progression over fences last year season finishing 3112 before a couple of disappointments. He was only 4th of 5, beaten by 57 lengths here at Newbury over 2m7½f in February and then fell at the first fence at Ayr in April and hasn't been seen since, moving yards during the layoff. Has ability for sure, but probably neds a run to get the confidence back.

(5) Highstakesplayer is a consistent sort having made the frame in 11 of his 16 (3 x NHF, 7 x hrds & 6 x chs) outings, but his chase form is easily the best of the three codes with results reading 111P12 with that run probably his best, finishing as a three length runner-up in a decent Class 1 handicap at Ascot four weeks ago. That was his first run for 194 days, so he should strip fitter for that and he now drops in class. He's only up a pound for that run and has to be considered, as does (6) Genois who generally tends to be there or thereabouts, making the frame in 10 of 19 starts so far, culminating in a Class handicap win at Wetherby at the start of the month despite the 2m3½f trip probably being a bit too sharp for him. He beat the runner-up Galop de Chasse by three lengths that day and that horse was a decent enough third of nine here yesterday.

You can make a case for any of those, but my 1-2-3 would be (3) Twinjets, (5) Highstakesplayer & (6) Genois.

Leg 3 @ 1.15...(1) Califet En Vol made the frame in a five-length defeat on debut in an Ayr bumper in April and then went back to the shed for 205 days before reappearing for a hurdling debut at Kempton 19 days ago, where he absolutely breezed up, winning over today's trip by some fifteen lengths and looks to be another talent off the Nicky Henderson conveyor belt.

(4) The New Lion also only has two runs under his belt and his yard have high hopes for him after a 5.5 length win in a bumper at Market Rasen back in April was eventually followed up 202 days later with a win on hurdle debut at Chepstow a month ago, where he won by five lengths pulling further clear as the line approached. Since that run, the eighth-placed horse has finished 3rd of 8 back over that Chepstow course and distance and the horse in ninth was a 13 length winner at Hereford 18 days ago.

(5) French Ship finished 421 in bumpers, was second on hurdles debut and then won an eleven-runner Class 4 maiden at Chepstow earlier in the month, beating Let It Rain by just over two lengths. These two were some 17 lengths clear of the third placed horse who beat the fourth by 13 lengths. The third has since been a runner-up at Doncaster, whilst Let It Rain won at Wetherby three days ago and whilst all this is good, my preferred option is to take (4) The New Lion to beat (1) Califet En Vol here

Leg 4 @ 1.54...(5) Impose Toi is a model of consistency, making the frame in all seven starts to date, winning a pair of Class 4 handicaps and at Class 3 along the way. He was unlucky not to land a big Class 1 handicap at Ascot last December when he hit the penultimate hurdle and lost ground, resulting in him going down by just a neck and he was a decent 3rd of 19 at Kempton last time in this grade.

(8) Inthewaterside is another consistent sort, whose only failure to make the frame in his seven outings was a five length defeat in this grade at Ascot a year ago. Since that run, he won a Class 3 handicap at Lingfield, was a Class 2 runner-up at Ascot in mid-February and was a solid third of nineteen in a Class 1 handicap at this year's Aintree Festival five lengths behind Kateira who won a Listed race last week. Has had a wind op whilst away from the track and I expect more this season from this one.

(9) Issam is a danger here back up in trip after a creditable 4th of 10 over 2m at Ffos Las on his seasonal reappearance seven weeks ago. This trip should really suit him better as his form over 2m3f to 2m4f reads 2131201. His mark of 129 might not leave much room for error, as his last win was only by a length and a quarter off 125 at a lower class than this, so he'd need things to fall his way, but he should still be in the hunt for a place.

(11) Guard The Moon completes my shortlist as yet another consistent progressive type who always seems to be on the premises. he won two of his three bumper outings and has finished 322112 over hurdles, winning at both Classes 4 and 3. He stepped up to Class 2for the first time at Aintree three weeks ago and went really well for most of the race before being headed between the penultimate and last hurdles, eventually finishing second of nine, 2.5 lengths behind Harbour Lake who went well again three days ago. 3m1f at Aintree seemed to stretch Guard The Moon and the drop back in trip should be a bonus here.

All four stand a really good chance of at least a place, but they can't all finish in the first three and whilst there's not much between them, I'm omitting Issam.

Leg 5 @ 2.25...(1) Salver won his first four over hurdles including a Grade 2 at Chepstow last Christmas and was a decent third of twelve in this year's Gr1 Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Hasn't been seen since, so might need the run, but if ready, should go well. (3) Our Champ has won two of his last four, both in Class 2 handicaps, the latest just four weeks ago at Ascot, so he's in good nick. He is up 5lbs to a career-high mark, but he might not quite be done yet.

(4) Jeriko Du Reponet can be hit (3 from 3 to start his career) or miss (pulled up in each of his last/subsequent two), but on his day he's a smart hurdler who won a Grade 2 at Doncaster back in January. In his defence the two pull-ups were (i) at the Cheltenham Festival in a grade 1 and (ii) over fences at Sandown three weeks ago after eight months off track. I suspect that effort over fences was just to get some yards into his legs and open the airways and he could/should do better here.

(5) Queens Gamble is in sparking form, after two wins and a place from four bumpers, this 6yo mare is 3 from 3 over hurdles and was a Listed class winner at Taunton last time out. The only thing that might be an issue is race fitness, as she hasn't raced since that win at Taunton some eleven months ago. (7) Ooh Betty completes my shortlist for this one, even though I could have suggested another few! She's another 6yo mare in good form who from this time of year last year finished 11232 over hurdles with a a Listed class runner-up finish at Cheltenham in April ending her season. She returned to action after 206 days off to land a Class 3 handicap at Sandown three weeks ago and despite a 6lbs rise, should go well again today.

Easy to say back all of them, but my preference would be for (5) Queens Gamble to take this. I'm happy tog take a chance on getting the right version of (4) Jeriko Du Reponet and the value play is (3) Our Champ who for me is very viable 20/1 E/W option in a race paying four places for thirteen runners.

Leg 6 @ 3.00...It's a really open looking race and I think I'll take two of those towards the sharp end of the market and two longer priced chances. The two from the top would be (3) Senior Chief and (12) Victtorino. The former has made the frame in 9 of 10 starts and won a Class 2 handicap in first-time cheekpieces at Cheltenham last month off the back of a seven month break, whilst the latter was very good this time last year and I'm hoping lightning strikes twice. He returned from a 223-day absence to win a Class 1 handicap at Ascot in November, before repeating the feat seven weeks later over the same course and distance and if he starts this season (after 263 days off) in the same vein, he might be tough to ignore.

My two longer shots at this would be (5) Colonel Harry and (1) Sam Brown. The Colonel represents last year's winning trainer and jockey and has a similar kind of profile to stablemate Datsalrightgino. he was a Listed class runner-up at Carlisle four weeks ago off the back of a seven month break and was Grade 2 winner over fences at Wetherby back in January, so clearly has something about him, whilst Sam Brown is a bit more of a left-field outside the box pick. He's the 12 yr old top weight with stacks of experience. he has won here before, relishes the softer ground, has won at both Gr 1 and Gr 2 and was only beaten by less than five lengths at Grade 2 last time out. That was at Wetherby four weeks ago coming off a six month break and ther might just be one (or two) big run left in the old boy.

I'm going to take all four in a belt and braces approach!

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Listentoyourheart, (1) Sansrisk & (4) Jubilee Alpha

Leg 2: (3) Twinjets, (5) Highstakesplayer & (6) Genois

Leg 3: (4) The New Lion & (1) Califet En Vol

Leg 4: (5) Impose Toi, (8) Inthewaterside & (11) Guard The Moon

Leg 5: (5) Queens Gamble, (4) Jeriko Du Reponet & (3) Our Champ

Leg 6: (3) Senior Chief, (5) Colonel Harry, (12) Victtorino & (1) Sam Brown

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

The best of luck to you all and I hope you have a great weekend.
Chris

 

Tix Picks, Thursday 28/11/24

/in /by

Thursday's racing comes from Lingfield, Musselburgh, Taunton and Thurles.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Taunton...

Taunton looks a bit novice-heavy for my liking, so let's head to Lingfield and some soft ground for six races starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.35... (1) Chankaya probably needed the run at Uttoxeter four weeks ago when only 10th of 11 on his debut for Tim Vaughan, having ended last season eight months earlier with a win at Taunton. Should put up a better show 2lbs and one class lower and with the benefit of having had a recent run. (3) Just Chasing May looks like a horse on the up and has finished as a runner-up in both races this term since coming back from a 130-day break that followed his five length win at Uttoxeter in mid-June and he looks the one to beat here.

(5) Twp Stori is another who probably needed to pipes clearing out when running for the first time on over five months at Uttoxeter six weeks ago. That time he was a creditable 5th of 14, beaten by 8 lengths over an inadequately short 2 mile trip. Prior to thar break/run, he had finished 3212 over longer trips. he stays 3m2f, he gets soft/heavy ground and runs off the same mark as when second at Uttoxeter over 3m on his penultimate outing. (8) Getaway With You completes my shortlist here, despite being a 13-race maiden over hurdles. The truth is that he flopped when sent off as the 3/1 favourite in a 14-runner handicap over 3m1½f at Huntingdon at the start of the month, finishing 8th, 21 lengths adrift of the winner, but his previous form had read 3262 and he's down in trip here.

That said, Getaway With You makes the least appeal of the four and I'm going with (3) Just Chasing May & (5) Twp Story with (1) Chankaya my alternate.

Leg 2 @ 1.10...I was really interested in Plantaroma when I had a cursory look at the card last night, but she's a non-runner now, effectively making this all about the hat-trick seeking (5) Jasmine Bliss, who comes here after a soft ground Class 4 bumper win and another on heavy ground at Class 2 last time out. We'll assume she can jump (Harry Derham is no mug), so the only possible issue is her fitness after nine months off.

(9) Solid Silver is probably the one most likely to challenge of those with racecourse experience, also on hurdles debut. She made the frame in a Listed bumper almost a year ago and was in the frame in back to back 2m A/W handicaps this summer and was only beaten by a length and a half here at Lingfield over 2m last time out, albeit on the polytrack. Like the main pick, we take a chance on her jumping, but she possesses decent ground speed

We should also take a newcomer and the eye catcher is (10) Holloway Queen who was a runner-up in her sole PTP race, beaten by just a length at Monks Grange. She was then sold for the thick end of 200,000 Euro and when you see the names De Boinville & Henderson, there's always a chance and she might well be better than Solid Silver!

Leg 3 @ 1.45...This isn't a strong race by any means and despite an 8lb rise, top weight (1) Vision De Maine should be the one to beat, as he comes here seeking a hat-trick after winning over 3m at Uttoxeter on his chase debut six weeks ago despite coming off a six month break before a course and distance success here sixteen days ago. (2) Airtothethrone has only won one of thirteen over fences, but generally tends to be there or thereabouts, finishing 42F4F2324 since the start of March '23, mainly at trips similar to today (but does stay 3m3f) and mainly at Class 4 (so he drops in class here). he handles soft ground well enough and could well be in the mix once more today.

(4) Aworkinprogress also comes here on a hat-trick after a pair of heavy ground successes over 2m6f/2m7f. He won a Class 4 handicap hurdle at the end of March at Fontwell, then had 205 days off before scoring on his chase debut at Stratford almost six weeks ago and I fully expect him to go well again here. (5) Camulus completes my shortlist and he's another with a poor record from a win perspective, coming here at 0/1 in bumpers, 0/4 over hurdles and 0/4 over fences, but he was third on chase debut at Fakenham in February 2023 and a runner-up here over course and distance off the back of a year off in February this year. he gets soft/heavy ground, he gets today's trip and his 266 days off are shorter than the last long break he had! Throw in a couple of paced efforts over hurdles and there's a chance, albeit small, that he's involved here today.

Of those four above, Camulus is probably the one I should omit, leaving me with (1) Vision De Maine, (4) Aworkinprogress & (2) Airtothethrone as my 1-2-3.

Leg 4 @ 2.20...(2) Nachtgeist made the frame on the Flat in a Group 2 race at Cologne in June 2023 and was a runner-up over hurdles at Huntingdon in early October. Didn't go quite as well at Ascot last time out, but this race shouldn't take much winning and he was a runner-up at Plumpton in a 2-mile hurdle on soft ground in January, so the underfoot conditions shouldn't be an issue. (2) Speiriuil probably needed the run when only 7th of 18 at Chepstow three weeks ago, coming off the back of a six month absence. He's entitled to come on for having had the run and when you consider that his other five appearances resulted in finishes of 32242 on mainly soft and/or heavy ground, you'd have to expect him to enjoy this one.

(6) Stardhem was a nose ahead of Speiriuil in that race at Chepstow, as he made his handicap debut after an absence of 201 days. He should also improve for having had that run and the benefit of handicap experience and Ben Pauling's runners always command respect, especially here at Lingfield where his handicap hurdlers have finished 181121. Stardhem is 2lbs better off with Speiriuil today and although his form line doesn't scream winner, there's no reason why he can't confirm the placings with that slight weight advantage.

(7) The Cox Express is probably the one most likely to challenge the trio above, but he's going to have to step up a long way from last time out, when he too ran in that afore-mentioned race at Chepstow 22 days ago, finishing just 11th of 18 and 33 lengths further back than Speiriuil. That said, he had been off the track for six months and did make the frame in three of his last four runs last spring. he has gone well in the mud previously, but I think he's going to need things to fall his way to make the first three home today, so I'm with (6) Stardhem, (2) Nachtgeist & (2) Speiriuil.

Leg 5 @ 2.55...This one has fallen apart somewhat with five of the original fourteen runners now not lining up. The ones I'd be most interested here would be (2) De Kingpin and (6) Miller Spirit

De Kingpin drops in class here after a decent effort at Sandown on hurdles debut 18 days ago, finishing 3rd of 8, beaten by just a length and a half some 252 days after a runner-up finish on race debut in a heavy ground Doncaster bumper. I mentioned Ben Pauling's Lingfield hurdlers earlier and I'd expect this one to be on the premises too.

The main danger should come from Miller Spirit on his hurdling debut. Ground speed won't be an issue for a 4yo whose form on the Flat over the last six months reads 114241116 with that last defeat not as bad as it seems with it being the 23-runner, Class 2, November handicap at Doncaster where he was beaten by less than three lengths 19 days ago. He's clearly fit, his last five runs have been on soft or heavy ground and his yard won this race in 2022.

Elsewhere there's little appeal, so I'll just take these two.

Leg 6 @ 3.30...And the finale has been decimated too with only 8 of 15 going to post and the one I was most interested in (Dromlac Jury) is one of the withdrawal. Another of my overnight shortlist, Ascension Day, also won't run here, so I'm left with just three of my 'originals', namely (4) Barest Of Margins, (5) Hokelami & (6) Superstylin, so I'll be taking this trio.

Barest of Margins is a perennial placer despite being an 11-race (2 x NHF, 2 x hrds & 7 x chase) maiden. He has failed to complete twice, but his other nine races have seen him finish 24 in bumpers, 33 over hurdles and 22232 over fences. he was only beaten by two lengths last time out, headed in the last half of seventeen furlongs, so the drop in trip should help here off the same mark.

Hokelami looked like needing a run when 5th of 8 at Ffos Las last month off the back of a 202-day absence, but he had won two of his four handicap chases this year prior to his break, including a nine lengths success over 2m1f at Sedgefield on soft ground in March. He is, admittedly, still 5lbs higher than that win and has every right/chance of bouncing back into the frame here, but the one to beat is possibly/probably Superstylin.

Superstylin actually won this race last year by 4.5 lengths on his chase debut. He was then rested for three months before racing three times inside four weeks last March finishing 323 with the first two on soft ground. If he returns in the same vein after an eight month break, he's be the one to beat for me with my 1-2-3 reading (6) Superstylin, (4) Barest Of Margins & (5) Hokelami

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (3) Just Chasing May, (5) Twp Story & (1) Chankaya

Leg 2: (5) Jasmine Bliss, (10) Holloway Queen & (9) Solid Silver

Leg 3: (1) Vision De Maine, (4) Aworkinprogress & (2) Airtothethrone

Leg 4: (6) Stardhem, (2) Nachtgeist & (4) Speiriuil

Leg 5: (2) De Kingpin & (6) Miller Spirit

Leg 6: (6) Superstylin, (4) Barest Of Margins & (5) Hokelami

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, everyone!
Note : I'm off tomorrow (out tonight!), so I'll be back on Saturday.
Chris

Tix Picks, Wednesday 27/11/24

/in /by

Wednesday's racing comes from Dundalk, Hereford, Market Rasen and Wetherby.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Market Rasen...

And we'll follow the money and head to Lincolnshire and Market Rasen's good to soft/soft ground for six races starting with...

Race 1 @ 12.05...Top-weight Catchim finished 42P423 in PTP races before winning by 2¼ lengths on his debut under Rules at Southwell over a trip of 2m4½f where he jumped pretty well after a clumsy effort at the first. That run will stand him in good stead, of course, but he's carrying a 7lb penalty for that win and has been off the track for 169 days.

I think he's probably still good enough to make the frame, but this race is surely all about Tripoli Flyer, who won a Class 2 bumper at Lingfield in January and was a one-length runner-up to stable mate Horaces Pearl in a Grade 2 bumper at the Aintree Festival with subsequent Grade 2 hurdle winner Valgrand three lengths further back. Tripoli Flyer's hurdling debut saw him finish as a runner-up again at Chepstow three weeks ago after seven months off track. He should come on for the run and it's hard to imagine him not winning this.

Best of the rest are probably the expensive (140,000 Euro) Queens Wish, a 6 lengths winner on her sole PTP run and Bennetshill, who was a well beaten second of four at Southwell twelve days ago, but it's just (6) Tripoli Flyer & (1) Catchim for me here.

Race 2 @ 12.40...This race has somewhat fallen apart overnight with half of the six-runner field being withdrawn. Of the three that do run, Brave Jen brings the best recent form to the table, having finished 231 in her last three, getting off the mark at the fourteenth (!) time of asking at Sedgefield three weeks ago.

The fact that she was 0/13 at the start of the month says how poor this race is. Traveling Soldier was beaten by 53 and 57 lengths in his last two outings and Chief Sunday went down by 26 lengths at Aintree a month ago.

I'm not being caught out in a 3-runner race, though, so all three go on my ticket builder with Brave Jen just about the least worst of the three and Chief Sunday the biggest threat on handicap debut down two classes and three furlongs.

Race 3 @ 1.15...Camino Rocio is 2 from 2 since moving to Jim and Suzi Best's yard and being fitted with a visor and although he's up 6lbs for his win at Huntingdon a fortnight ago, he's surely the one to beat here. Elsewhere Knocknagappagh returns from seven months off hoping to recapture the form that saw her finish as a runner-up three times inside five starts last winter, whilst Sadlers Bay comes back from a 10-month break hoping to pick up where he left with finishes of 34223 in his last five outings.

Stuti makes a chase debut after a win and four places from nine starts in bumper/hurdles races, having made the frame in three of her last four and her yard is 2 from 2 in Market Rasen chases this year. Dunworley returns from a near seven month absence, but the penny seemed to be finally dropping for him last time out when third home at Huntingdon, whilst Goguenard returns from a similar lay-off to make his chase debut. He returned to action last January after a year off the track and finished 1121 in his first four starts after the break, so if adapting tot he bigger obstacles, the time off might not as much of an issue.

That said, this shouldn't be too hard to win and I expect (6) Camino Rocio to complete a one-month hat-trick for the Bests. (3) Sadlers Bay is probably my second choice with (4) Stuti the back-up plan.

Race 4 @ 1.50...I think I'd have been on Skyjack Hijack here to complete a sixth win on the bounce, but both he and in-form West To The Bridge were withdrawn this morning forcing me into a rethink, which has led me initially to (2) Harbour Lake who has 5 wins and 3 places from 14 over hurdles, won by 2.5 lengths after a six month break at Aintree 18 days ago and was a winner here back in October 2022 on his only previous visit. His jockey is 5 from 15 here over the last year and has made the frame in 11 of 23 rides over the last fortnight, whilst the yard's 26 runners in that fortnight have a 50% place strike rate.

Elsewhere, Supreme Gift probably needed the run after 192 days off when 7th of 12 at Cheltenham a month ago, but he had ended his last campaign with results reading 213 all in a visor that he wears again today. What A Johnny is steady if unspectacular and has only failed to finish ion the first three home once in his six efforts over hurdles so far, winning at both Stratford on debut a year ago and at Perth in April. He also looked like needing the run last time out when finishing weakly at Carlisle.

Bottom weight Giovanni Change is interesting, this 9yo has been around the block a few times and on a positive note has 4 wins and 2 places from 11 hurdles races over 2m5f to 3m here at Market Rasen and is the only course and distance winner in the pack. He's also 9lbs lower than his last winning mark and has a 5lb claimer on board too, but he comes here after finishing last of 12 over 2m1f at Carlisle, 20 lengths behind the winner and was only 8th of 9 here over course and distance last time out, beaten by some 68 lengths.

If we get last season's Giovanni Change, then 20/1 price ticket looks massive, but I suspect we'll get this August's runner instead, so I'll take (2) Harbour Lake to beat (8) What A Johnny here with (3) Supreme Gift as the alternate, but don't be afraid of putting Giovanni Change on your tickets, you never know!

Race 5 @ 2.25...Fantastic Lady is joint best-off at the weights and won this race two years ago. She hasn't raced for seven months just as she hadn't when winning here back in 2022 and did land a Grade 2 contest at Sandown last time out. Apple Away was second and then third in Grade 2 chases at the start of the year and landed a Listed event at Perth two starts ago back in April. He probably needed the run after six months off when 4th of 7 at Kelso a month ago and we should remember that he's a Grade 1 hurdle winner.

Marsh Wren is 12113 over fences so far and was a solid third of nine in a Grade 2 at this year's Cheltenham Festival having won a 2m6f Thurles Listed contest three weeks earlier. That 2m6f is the longest she has raced, so she's unproven/untested at 3m+. La Renommee is two from four in handicap chases this year and was a runner-up in back to back Listed chases in December/January last season. She'd be a surprise winner here, I think, but she should be involved in the shake-up.

Sire Nomine's career consists of six Hunter Chase runs, where she has finished 312111, culminating in her landing the Festival Challenge Cup at this year's Cheltenham Festival. She hasn't raced since then and this is a step up in quality, so whilst there's no doubting her ability, she might be one for next time out.

Tough call here, but my 1-2 would be (1) Fantastic Lady & (3) Marsh Wren

Race 6 @ 3.00...Anytrixwilldo has only tackled fences twice so far and looked like he was getting the hang of it last time out when beaten by not much more than teo lengths at Hereford a fortnight ago and a similar run puts him in contention for at least a place here off the same mark. Percy Veering has had a third wind op, but ran really well immediately after each of his previous two including over this course and distance in March 2023. More recently he was a faller at Wincanton in January and well beaten by 36 lengths in a four-runner event at Leicester in March, so massive improvement is needed here.

Sir Rock is two from four over fences, having won back to back races at Plumpton and Fontwell last December/January. A return to Plumpton in March saw him finish second of five, beaten by a neck before a seven month break. Sadly he hasn't been the same this season, going down by 34 lengths over hurdles back at Fontwell before being pulled up 3 out having tailed off in a 2m4f chase there earlier this month. Pats Dream got off the mark at the eighth attempt at Ayr earlier this month, winning a 12-runner handicap by a neck on what was his yard debut for new handlers. He is up 7lbs for that win, which is a little harsh, but he's the 'in-form' runner in a poor looking contest.

My shortlist is completed by (6) Coolmoyne whose form over 3m+ in 2024 reads 24132 and was a creditable second of six at Sedgefield most recently despite coming off a 141-day absence. He runs off the same mark here and whilst more of a place prospect than a winner, should go well and I'll take him as my next best to (5) Pats Dream with (2) Anytrixwilldo the backup option.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (6) Tripoli Flyer & (1) Catchim

Leg 2: (1) Chief Sunday, (3) Brave Jen & (5) Traveling Soldier

Leg 3: (6) Camino Rocio, (3) Sadlers Bay & (4) Stuti

Leg 4: (2) Harbour Lake, (8) What A Johnny & (3) Supreme Gift

Leg 5:  (1) Fantastic Lady & (3) Marsh Wren

Leg 6: (5) Pats Dream, (6) Coolmoyne & (2) Anytrixwilldo

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Tuesday 26/11/24

/in /by

Tuesday's racing comes from Sedgefield, Southwell and Tramore. If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Sedgefield...

...and as I want to avoid the maiden bumper in the last at Sedgefield, I'm going to tackle the first six races on the Southwell card, where the going is said to be good to soft.

Leg 1 @ 12.35...Smurfette has a win and two places from her last three starts and also looked like she'd more running left in her when third over 2m6f last time out. Northern Reel's yard, jockey and trainer/jockey combo have all made the frame in more than half of their races over the last fortnight...

...and the horse herself was a ready 13 lengths winner at Leicester last week. One other to consider would be Eightytwo Team who has a win and a place from two efforts over course and distance and has been in consistently decent nick for some time.

That said, I don't think she's at the level of the other two, so I'll stick with (2) Smurfette and (4) Northern Reel here.

Leg 2 @ 1.05...Great Samourai was disappointing last time out, but had finished 242221 in his previous six starts, including a pair of silvers here at Southwell and a win at Huntingdon and could well be involved again up in trip. Imperial Bede drops in class after finishing third at Wetherby at the start of the month and is now 6lbs lower than when he won by 13 lengths over C&D back in February.

Duo D'Enfer is getting on a bit now at 11 and although his last three efforts haven't been great, he did finish third this time last year at the start of a run of results reading 3131, whereas Jasmin De Grugy is the clear form horse in this pack, having won each of his last three starts over hurdles. he's had six months rest ahead of his chasing debut and if transferring his hurdles form to the larger obstacles would be the one to beat here.

Onewayortother has finished third in both starts over fences so far over a trip of 2m½f that has seemed too sharp for him, so he could improve for the extra half mile or so here, whilst You Say Nothing is dangerously weighted off a mark of 96, some 12lbs lower than his last winning mark from may 2023, but that does also reflect his poor recent form.

This half-dozen form my shortlist from which my 1-2-3 would be (8) Jasmin De Grugy, (3) Imperial Bede and (9) Onewayortother

Imperial Bede was withdrawn whilst I was still compiling the column, so I'll take (2) Great Samourai as the replacement

Leg 3 @ 1.40...Lexie's Moon won nicely at Stratford just over five weeks ago for a second win in four, both were on testing ground so stamina shouldn't be an issue as she steps up in trip. Broughshane backed up a comfortable win at Fontwell in October by finishing as runner-up over 3m at Ffos Las just over a fortnight ago when bumping into one winning for the fourth time in eight starts.

Asian Star has just five races under her belt with finishes of 312 over hurdles with her win coming here over 2m. An opening mark of 106 isn't a disaster, but she might struggle with the step up in trip and my shortlist is completed by the one I'd expect to win : Solar System. He's 31531 in handicap hurdles and is unpenalised for winning at Warwick six days ago.

I'm probably too well aligned with the market here, but it has to be (5) Solar System and (2) Broughshane for me with (3) Asian Star as Plan B.

Leg 4 @ 2.10...Achille Des Rocs made the frame in 3 of 5 PTP races and wasn't disgraced when a 13 lengths 4th of 12 at Market Rasen 12 days ago. Probably wants further, though. Kap de Triomphe's two UK efforts haven't really caught the eye, but he did win on bumper debut at Naas in February and this isn't the toughest race he'll ever have.

King Uklanda's sole run to date saw him land a bumper at Huntingdon back in May, after which he was sold for £17k, whilst Lawrenny has had three start in bumpers, progressing in each and he followed up a runner-up finish at Sedgefield in January by winning at Newcastle last time out, although that was nearly nine months ago.

The last one that interests me is Sergeant Fury who was beaten by less than two lengths in a Class 2 bumper at Wincanton earlier this month, having won on his sole PTP appearance.

This is one of those races where you could take six darts at nine runners and still miss the frame, but I'd go with (8) Sergeant Fury, (6) Lawrenny and (1) Achille Des Rocs as my trio against the field, although I wouldn't be massively surprised if Kap de Triomphe ran better than a 28/1 (or bigger) ticket might suggest.

Leg 5 @ 2.40...This looks a two-way fight between (1) Elle Est Beau and (5) Rockola. The former was definitely going the right way last season, finishing third in back to back races in November/December, but a fall at Sandown in January seemed to upset her rhythm and she could only manage sixth in two subsequent runs. She's better than that and you can be sure that Team Skelton will have schooled her well in her 220-day break.

Rockola, however, was in action just five weeks ago, finishing fourth here at Southwell after an absence of more than six month. She should kick on for that run and had been a runner-up on her last run of the previous season, from which the third-placed horse is 2 from 2.. She looks reasonably treated off an opening mark of 91 and like Elle Est Beau above, she takes a drop in class here.

(1) Elle Est Beau and (5) Rockola look the standouts for me and with An Cailin Ciuin being withdrawn whilst I was typing, I'll just take this pair.

Leg 6 @ 3.10...The withdrawal of likely favourite Early Morning Dew could open the door for top-weight Neigh Botha, who has actually been plying his trade in Class 4 chases of late finishing 13P343 in that sphere since his last effort over hurdles. That chase win was over today's track and trip and his mark is 3lbs lower than his last chase outing and the drop in class should help.

Gainsbourg returns to hurdling for his handicap debut at this code, having been racing on the Flat/AW for over a year. he has a win and a runner-up finish on the Flat from his last five outings, so should be sharp between the flights, suggesting a clear round puts in the mix.

The others that appeal to me are Window Of Time and Runaway Train with the former the pick of the two. Handicap debutant Window of Time has only raced seven times (1 x AW, 2 x Flat & 4 x hrds), but has finished 232 in her last three efforts over hurdles. Rated joint third best in the field says she's in with a shout here, but as the sole 3yo in the race is afforded a huge 16lbs weight allowance here, effectively making her bottom weight and that could be decisive here.

Runaway Train's bare form isn't much to write home about, but I'm scratching around for a back-up pick and he has shown some promise in the past. His yard are in good nick (24 from 80 = 30% SR over the last month) and have a decent record at this venue...

His jockey has 15 wins and 16 places from his 68 rides over the last year, which isn't bad for a 5lb claimer whose allowance further lowers what was a very fair-looking opening mark of 89. This might well be the poorest race this horse has faced so far and could well be the kickstart he needs, so (5) Runaway Train becomes my backup to (1) Neigh Botha and (14) Window Of Time

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Smurfette and (4) Northern Reel

Leg 2: (8) Jasmin De Grugy, (3) Imperial Bede and ,  (9) Onewayortother and (2) Great Samourai

Leg 3: (5) Solar System, (2) Broughshane and (3) Asian Star

Leg 4: (8) Sergeant Fury, (6) Lawrenny and (1) Achille Des Rocs

Leg 5: (1) Elle Est Beau and (5) Rockola

Leg 6: (1) Neigh Botha, (14) Window Of Time and (5) Runaway Train

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


As ever, the very best of luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Thursday 21/11/24

/in /by

OK, guys, I'm back in the hotseat upon my return from a brief trip abroad and hopefully I can continue the fine form shown by Matt here in my absence. Thursday's UK action is scheduled for Lingfield, Southwell, Warwick, Wincanton & Wolverhampton.

If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Southwell...

And as it's likely to be a tough first day at the helm, I might as well aim for the big one and tackle these six races on Southwell's standard going tapeta...

Leg 1 @ 4.30...Anthropologist and Fernando both won last time out, both are only up 4lbs for their wins and the former also takes a drop in class here. Elsewhere both Montbeliarde and Queen of Good News have been runners-up in two of their last three starts but the former is up in class here, whilst the latter drops three classes.

Anthropologist is the one most likely to lead, but there's no out and out front runner here, which does give a chance to those who might otherwise have been left behind, whilst with low draws preferred over this track and trip, that's another tick for Anthropologist from stall 2 of 9.

He won't be the market's choice here, but Anthropologist ticks most boxes for me today and I'll take him along with fellow LTO winner Fernando and triple-grade class dropper Queen of Good News in the opener.

Leg 2 @ 5.00...Waiting All Night looks like a potential front-runner here and if he brings his Newmarket summer form to the table, he has a great chance of giving his yard more success at a track where they've had 7 winners and 4 placers from 20 over the last year. Local Music has only failed to make the frame twice in her nine starts over the past year with three wins and three runner-up finishes.

Rogue Encore comes here on a hat-trick after back to back 1m wins at Newcastle and is a big danger despite a 6lb penalty, as is Helm Rock if running like he did at Chelmsford last time out. He was only beaten by head after being denied a clear run and the one horse from that race to have run again went on to win at Wolverhampton five days ago.

And whilst I do like the look of Waiting All Night, it's (2) Local Music, (4) Rogue Encore & (5) Helm Rock for me here.

Rogue Encore was withdrawn whilst I was writing the piece, so (1) Waiting All Night takes his place on the tickets.

Leg 3 @ 5.30...Al Rayyan blew the start at Kempton on debut six weeks ago but ran on really well to finish fourth and if coming on for the run and getting away more smoothly, should be in the mix here today for a yard with 17 wins and 16 places from 58 over the last month and a course record of 9 wins and 6 places from 30 over the last five years. Cy Twombly has run to a reasonable level in two starts so far and could well be involved again here; his trainer/jockey have a good record together at this venue.

The Gosden newcomer Gamrai is interesting, his dam was a winner at 1m2f and he's related to 1m winner Aljazzi and a half-brother to Majestic Noor and the versatile triple-code winner Liverpool Knight. The yard is in great form, especially with today's jockey on the saddle and this one could well win on debut. Debutants Wolfpack and Atlantic Sunset are also of interest, but I'm playing it relatively safe here with (1) Ar Rayyan, (3) Cy Twombly & (4) Gamrai.

Leg 4 @ 6.00...The second division of the race above looks a much weaker affair with only Pride of Donegal making much appeal from the seven runners to have already raced. He was only beaten by three lengths over a mile on debut at Newcastle a fortnight ago defying odds of 28/1 and should come on for the run, whilst it is hoped that Hallelujah U will also be able to build upon his 5th of 11 (3.5 lengths) run here over 7f a month ago. He didn't get a clear run that day but finished stronger so might appreciate the extra furlong here for a yard with a 28% win strike rate over the last month and 4 winners plus 3 placers from his last 15 Southwell A/W runners.

All of which might well be blown out of the water by another newcomer from the Gosden yard, the Lope De Vega colt Written For You. He is a half-brother to several winners including Glorious Journey who won eight times between 6f and 1m including three Group 2 races, 1m winner Queen For You and 2-y-o 7f/1m winner Love Is You.

So, I'll take (3) Hallelujah U, (5) Pride of Donegal & (8) Written For You for this one.

Leg 5 @ 6.30...Top-weight Artistic Star drops back into handicap company after five Class 1 races and if fit to go first time up after a seven-month break, could well have been underestimated by the assessor, even if 106 isn't a mark to be taken lightly and we've already mentioned the 30-day and course form of his trainer Ralph Beckett earlier. Max Mayhem won a Class 2 handicap on his last A/W outing just over a year ago and comes here off the back of a two length defeat in a £52k handicap at Goodwood.

Course and distance winner Andaleep was a three-quarter length runner-up at Kempton seventeen ago in a 14-runner field and that came of the back of an excellent run at 66/1 to finish 5th of 31 in the Cambridgeshire at the end of September, so this horse clearly has ability and isn't afraid of company, but the one to beat here has to be Champagne Prince, who is three from three on the A/W and won here over course and distance last time out and shouldn't be anchored by a 5lb rise.

Dark Moon Rising is another to consider, as he's better than his LTO 21st of 23 at Doncaster might suggest, as he'd finished 233 with small margins of defeat in his previous three runs, but I'm overlooking him in favour of (1) Artistic Star, (5) Andaleep & (8) Champagne Prince.

Leg 6 @ 7.00...The early morning market says it's a three horse race from the top of the card and I'd tend to agree that this should be between Paddy's Day, Strong Johnson & Dashing Harry and I've got very little between them in my head.

Paddy's Day drops in class after finishes of 4223 and not beaten by much in any of them, he ruins of the same mark as his LTO C&D third of nine and with his jockey taking 5lbs off, he should be on the premises once more.

Strong Johnson was going well at Wolverhampton last week, leading at the halfway point before his reins snapped and having been passed by a couple inside the final furlong, he was eased down with no real hope of being ridden out. That said, he did make all to at Newcastle two starts ago and a similar run might well be enough here.

Dashing Harry probably just about shades it here, though as he was only denied by a short head (headed on the line) over course and distance three days ago and goes again off the same mark. He was a winner at Kempton three starts ago and drops in class today.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Queen of Good News, (4) Anthropologist & (5) Fernando

Leg 2: (2) Local Music, (4) Rogue Encore & (5) Helm Rock & (1) Waiting All Night (late sub)

Leg 3: (1) Ar Rayyan, (3) Cy Twombly & (4) Gamrai

Leg 4: (3) Hallelujah U, (5) Pride of Donegal & (8) Written For You

Leg 5: (1) Artistic Star, (5) Andaleep & (8) Champagne Prince

Leg 6: (1) Paddy's Day, (2) Strong Johnson & (3) Dashing Harry

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Tix Picks, 20/11/24

/in /by

Another winning ticket yesterday but, again, the dividend was measly meaning profits were, too. Still 25% ROI is not terrible and clawed back some of the Monday deficit. Wednesday is my final contribution in this stint - Chris is back tomorrow - and I think we'll stay over jumps.

It's cold out there, Hexham failing to beat the frost, but we currently have jumps racing from Ffos Las and Warwick; and all-weather meetings at Kempton and Dundalk.

If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Kempton...

 

 

 

Across to west Wales today as we tackle the Ffos Las placepot where soft ground means runners abound.

12.15 Ffos Las - Leg 1

A lot  has to be taken on trust with short-priced novice hurdle recruits from the point fields. In the case of Buckna, at least, we have the fact his point had some depth and his price tag was £350,000. Oof. A. Admiral Stewart was beaten in his bumper having won a point to point, and he also goes on A. It's hard to see both of those two off the ticket.

12.50 Ffos Las - Leg 2

A competitive low grade novices' handicap chase next, with a shortish favourite in Montys Soldier. He was a staying on fourth in a good ground Fakenham novices' handicap hurdle over two and a half miles last time, and gets a lot of condition changes here: fences, more galloping track, softer turf and an extra half mile in trip. He should handle those differences based on pedigree and prior form but it's not a given so he'll have company on my main 'A' tickets. The Scorpion King is experienced, has performed well on soft and sees this range out fine; he's A team, too.

Shillanavogy won a 2m4f soft ground handicap hurdle and was a narrow second in a similar race to this last time. He handles soft, has nearly won at the trip and should run well if fit enough after six months off. Wide To West have soft ground three mile form but has been off for seven months and his trainer is not firing on all cylinders at the moment. Hobb's Delight has been going close but on quicker turf; he might handle softer well but he's yet to prove it and I'll leave him alone. Wonder Of The Seas is more attractive as a place play, with three silver medals in his last four runs, two of them on a deep surface. B's bar Hobb's.

[Casting Aspersions might run better than his price first time in a handicap]

13.25 Ffos Las - Leg 3

Assuming he can jump, dual bumper winner Blue Las should make the frame. A banker. In case he can't, Andy Amo is an obvious alternative for a trainer (Rebecca Curtis) with a good record in the race and whose bumper form implies this sort of test should be ideal. B.

14.00 Ffos Las - Leg 4

This 0-100 novices' handicap hurdle could see any of a number spring forward on what they've shown so far. The established form is with Greenways, but he's never raced on soft ground and is short enough with that to prove. Lady Harriett looks more solid, with form on soft and at the trip and as an easy last day winner. Fresh Speculation has been consistent in defeat but shoulders top weight against more interesting rivals. He, like Greenways, could easily make the frame, but won't be on my ticket.

Atreides was unlucky not to win two back, his run coming too late and, if his seven pound conditional can elicit a tune, he's a player. B. Just Aidan has been well backed early in spite of middling form and seven months off. It's possible he's stepped forward for his summer and is a tentative B.

I'm going to throw some rags on C here, as well, because it could go that way. Handicap debutants Jukebox Joker and Dish Of The Day, as well as Greenways and Fresh Speculation. I don't really like this race!

14.35 Ffos Las - Leg 5

Another 0-100 handicap chase but this time most of them are what they are: exposed handicappers. Favourite is Lermoos Legend but he doesn't love this sort of ground and has top weight. Supasunrise and One Last Glance look much more reliable against race conditions. Both on A.

Ileny Royale is an interesting one at a price. Ex-French, he ran better than his finishing position last time and gets the tongue tie that was a feature of his better French form for the first time in UK today. I'm not sure about the ground for Lelant, Esperti or Faitque de l'Isle; but Bobbi's Beauty will go through it and may try to lead - the trouble is, she's having her first run for eight months for a yard out of form.

I'm taking more B's with Rock On Rita, Higgs and My Granny Lily all expected to cope with conditions. But I could easily have this race wrong.

15.10 Ffos Las - Leg 6

A trappy mares' handicap hurdle closes out the card and I'm again, reluctantly, taking on the well-backed favourite Hedera Park on the basis of no form on soft. The support suggests connections think he'll handle it and he'll be in the frame if he does; but there are three places to go at so we can still get the job done.

Cast's Tasha has all the weight but is fully proven in conditions for a trainer, Ben Clarke, who has started the season well. It's Easy should benefit from this stouter test than two miles last time and goes in deep ground. Both on A.

Elusiveness has the benefit of a run and gets first time cheekpieces. I'm convinced she'll stay but I respect connections. B. Sanda Rena's best run was on soft and she gets a tongue tie for handicap second start; that's enough to guess onto B. And Triple Nickle is very consistent and handles any ground. B.

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Which for 2p lines before multipliers gives us the below (£26.40 staked), as it looks in the Tix software. Do give it a try if you haven't already. Even if you just want to do a 2x2x2x2x2x2 perm or some such, just put all your picks in the 'A' column and that will get you a 5% bonus on any returns.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good Luck!
MATT

Tix Picks, 19/11/24

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After 17 straight winners highlighted across three days, we came down to earth with a mighty bump in the last leg of yesterday's Leicester placepot, as one of the two A picks refused to race and took no part; and the other performed little better. Galling was that the favourite for a bang in form team sauntered home. Ugh. On we go.

There's a bit of weather around today, but we currently have jumps racing from Carlisle, Fakenham and Limerick; and all-weather meetings from Lingfield and Southwell, the latter having to pass a 10am inspection.

If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Southwell if it passes its inspection...

 

 

 

We're jumping at the border town of Carlisle today, a midday start, and a more stats-driven approach for the Tix Picks preview.

12.00 Carlisle - Leg 1

A very competitive handicap hurdle to kick off and some unexposed ones. Iain Duncan runs two and both vie for favouritism in the same ownership. Slight preference is for Teddy Mac. A. Jonjo and AJ send one all the way up from Jackdaws Castle near Cheltenham, and they take off 10lb from Keppel Queen's 11-13 by deploying their promising claimer, Benjamin Macey. A.

George Bewley has three places (and a winner) from 10 handicap debut runners in the past 2 years, and a 58% PRB. He gets B action for Wise Move (we'll see about that!). I'll lob the other Duncan horse, Adveram, on B, too; and I'm also taking some C insurance in an inscrutable opener. They'll come from Topkapi Star, Glory Hights and Don Brocco.

12.30 Carlisle - Leg 2

An eight-runner (down from ten already) novices' handicap chase and one more defector will mean only two places. Sheesh. Incredibly, Lucinda Russell has just a 5% win rate at Carlisle, both in the past year and the past five years. On that basis I'm swerving Lady In The Park on A - which might prove remiss. Boomslang has been very consistent, but pays for that with all the weight here; still he's likely to again run well. A. Dream Boy is another to whom that comment applies and, a winner on chase debut last time, he's A too.

On B, we'll take Raceview Road, whose trainer's course record is a concern, and the aforementioned Lady In The Park.

13.03 Carlisle - Leg 3

Leg 3 is a maiden hurdle which looks just a bit more than a toss up between the O'Neills' Monty Bodkin and John McConnell's Ira Hayes, the latter getting the banker nod on account of his trainer's selectively successful forays to Carlisle. Sole A, and a possible place lay insurance option for those so inclined.

Nick Alexander (good track record, good trainer switch record) runs Orkney Blue who also cannot be discounted, but I'm going narrow here.

13.33 Carlisle - Leg 4

Another coin flip and another John McConnell runner, Kevin's Pride. It's 11/1 bar two and 28/1 bar three in this race so take your pick. Both will very likely be placed if they jump round. I'll go with Sandy Thomson's Dedicated Hero this time. A.

14.05 Carlisle - Leg 5

The penultimate leg, if we're still rolling, is a veterans' handicap chase. One nonner so far takes us down to five and so two places. Another absentee and it's win only. With that in mind, we'll cover everything. Flic Ou Voyou is consistent and likely to lead, and he handles quick ground. Obvious A player. Marown has top weight but most of his best form is on softer. B. Envious Editor drops from 0-140 company the past thrice to this 0-130 grade and he's run well many times on quick so he goes on A, too.

Former Grade 1 winner Cornerstone Lad (Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 2019) has shown all his best form on soft or heavy and at two miles. As I write, he's just been taken out - so we're win only. On that basis, although Ladronne has looked out of form in his last four starts, he does fit on back form and must go on B.

14.40 Carlisle - Leg 6

And we close with a deeper than average novices' hurdle. Epic West has point form so we know he jumps and Jamie Snowden sends him a long way north. Easy A. I'm not mad about Koukeo's form, despite a subsequent winner following him home last time, so he goes on B. Prince Of Perth has been out of the frame in two similar contests already and I'm swerving him altogether. But I do quite like Broderick, trained by red hot right now Jennie Candlish. He couldn't go the tempo on fast ground at Sedgefield last time, but at this more galloping track and on softer ground he can make the frame. A. A few of the others look handicap projects for down the line, though at least one might step forward today.

*

Which for 5p lines before multipliers gives us the below (£20 staked), as it looks in the Tix software. Do give it a try if you haven't already. Even if you just want to do a 2x2x2x2x2x2 perm or some such, just put all your picks in the 'A' column and that will get you a 5% bonus on any returns.

 

 

 

 

 

Good Luck!
MATT

Tix Picks, 18/11/24

/in /by

Another small profit on Saturday, which was a pity as the post highlighted all six winners including 10/1 Il Ridoto in the big race; and four of the six exactas (1-2) which paid £8.10, £60.60, £8.50 and £21.80!

There's plenty to go at again today, with jumps racing from Leicester, Plumpton and Exeter; and evening action from Southwell and Wolverhampton.

If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Southwell...

 

 

 

We're heading to Leicester and a video Tix preview today, so I can show you the tool as well as the Tix Picks!

 

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All of which gives us the following, as it looks in the Tix software. Do give it a try if you haven't already. Even if you just want to do a 2x2x2x2x2x2 perm or some such, just put all your picks in the 'A' column and that will get you a 5% bonus on any returns.

 

 

 

 

Good Luck!
MATT

Tix Picks, 16/11/24

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A 49% ROI (£24 to £35.70) with Friday's Tix play at Cheltenham was more fun and giggles than rock and roll, but it keeps things ticking over. There's a bumper Saturday menu today, with the Paddy Power Gold Cup highlighting Cheltenham's November fixture, as well as high class action at Navan and competitive racing at Uttoxeter and Wetherby before the tea time cards kick in. Today there's Listed racing at Newcastle and a nine-race bonanza at Wolverhampton.

If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including nearly £120,000 rollover in the Scoop6 and a £250,000 placepot guarantee at Cheltenham...

 

 

Let's wheel back to Cheltenham for that big guarantee, starting at...

12.35 Cheltenham

The juveniles get us started in a 3yo Triumph Hurdle Trial guess up. James Owen won the race for the Gredley family last year with Burdett Road and, staying close to Poplar, he saddles East India Dock for the same connections this time. He is 90-rated on the flat, which loosely translates to 130-odd potential over hurdles; that would be enough to take this, though he may need to improve a little on an easy win at Wincanton last month. He led or pressed the lead all the way there, and might face contention from, amongst others, Model Approach if attempting that run style again. A.

In opposition is a JP McManus runner, My Noble Lord, trained by the Greenall/Guerriero axis - an emerging force - and this lad has won his last four, three on the flat and his debut over hurdles. On the level, he reached a progressive peak of 83 and his single jumps run was also slightly below the bar set by East India Dock; still, he was very novicey in that initial effort and can improve a chunk for the experience. A.

One other worth a mention and a place on B is the highly experienced ex-French Static, who was a neck second in a Listed contest on his UK bow and might have been a touch unlucky not to win. He doesn't have the upside of the other two named but brings battle hardiness to the table. Prairie Angel has won two middling Irish contests and was lesser-rated on the flat, so it will be disappointing for the British contingent if he's good enough to beat them: the overseas team will surely have much better Triumph options as the season wears on.

1.10 Cheltenham

Race 2 is an amateur riders' handicap chase, a contest where not all amateurs are made equal. Take Patrick Mullins for instance: he's ridden 50 winners at a near 0ne-in-three clip in the past year. That's more than many pro's have achieved and a strike rate none will have matched! He gets on the unexposed Transmission, who was second here on his chasing debut last time behind yesterday's Listed winner Hyland and looks credibly handicapped off 129.

It's obviously a substantial risk almost banking in a race like this but he's my sole A, to which I'll add just one B in Read To Return, trained by Tony Martin. The trainer had a second in a handicap hurdle here yesterday and this chap was 5th of 16, beaten only six lengths, in this race last year. Again, jockeys are important, and Fin Maguire is another highly experienced amateur.

Come On Teddy gets a positive trainer switch, and Toby McCain-Mitchell is another jockey uplift on The Newest One, winner of a similar race at the October meeting; but I'm going to risk it for a biscuit on Transmission, A, and Read To Return, B.

1.45 Cheltenham

A Grade 2 novice chase is Leg 3, and we have another borderline even money favourite. Horses sent off 10/11 to 11/10 in novice chases since 2019 have placed at 55%, a rate at which they should have just about won - so while I'm not opposing L'Eau Du Sud, I'm also not singling him. He was a smart hurdler last season, second in both the Betfair Hurdle and the County Hurdle, and he kicked off his novice chase campaign with a ten length win at Stratford. He made one howler there, and Cheltenham will offer greater tests than Shakespeare country, but he's obviously classy.

Lookaway won a G2 hurdle here last October before running second in the 2023 Greatwood Hurdle so clearly acts on the track. His win in a match at Uttoxeter on his sole fencing outing tells us little but he jumped adequately and handles top of the ground. I wonder if he has quite the scope of a couple of these, though.

The experienced one, having been summer jumping, is Breizh River. He's progressed from 107 to 135 and, while these are 'proper winter horses', we know quick ground and match fitness won't be issues.

With there being eight runners at time of writing, I'm going L'Eau Du Sud tentatively as A banker, with Lookaway and Breizh River on B. It might be as simple as that... and it might not be!

2.20 Cheltenham

The Paddy Power next. Ginny's Destiny is favourite and has loads of track form including when winning a novice at this meeting last year and when running second in the Turners (as well as a the Manifesto at Aintree). Stage Star was an all the way winner of this for Nicholls and Cobden last year off a mark of 155, and they'll bid to repeat the dose most likely with a horse rated exactly the same.

The Irish have a pretty poor record in this in recent years and I'm leaning into that in the hope they again miss the board. Focusing on 7-9yo's that ran in the last 60 days leaves me with Ga Law and Il Ridoto in support. All three on A. [And I might have a tiny e/w bet on Weveallbeencaught with as many extra places as I can get]

2.55 Cheltenham

A handicap hurdle next and another race with a strong favourite but a competitive look underneath. Doyen Quest nearly won here last month, and steps up to three miles for the first time. He looks an obvious jolly but does need to stay this extra half a mile. A.

As I referenced yesterday, David Pipe is a man for this meeting, his American Sniper running very well in 6th after being made an awful lot of use of early in the race. This time it's the JP horse Thanksforthehelp which is taking market action and commands respect. With form of P06 he hardly screams 'bet', but he's tumbled back to the mark off which he won a Class 2 Pertemps qualifier in February 2023 and he was entitled to need his first run of the season: this looks to have been the plan. A.

Gowel Road has a lot of weight but plenty of form under these conditions, too, for another trainer - Nigel Twiston-Davies - who gets winners at this meeting - he goes on B. And Pinnacle Peak and Zeeband are 'C' players with a squeak. Unnamed favourite on B, too.

3.30 Cheltenham

Tony Martin won this two years ago with the favourite and bids to reprise that with the almost unspellable Hamsiyann. He's been off since May, when he ran well in the Chester Plate, but has a stone in hand of the flat to hurdle extrapolation. Of course, he may simply not be good enough; but it's folly to oppose him in the placepot. A.

Henry Daly's mare Wyenot has cracking form behind the brilliant and under-rated Golden Ace; she led all the way here last month and, up six, will make another bold bid from the front - A. I'm against the Skeltons' Major Fortune on account of the ground, though he won't be a shock winner, and I prefer the claims of class-dropping Long Draw. B. Champagne Twist won the Novices' Final at Sandown last season and, if fit enough on this first run of the campaign, is another who can go forward from his current mark. B.

There are others with chances in a deep-looking final leg but we can't take them all!

*

All of which gives us the following, as it looks in the Tix software. Do give it a try if you haven't already. Even if you just want to do a 2x2x2x2x2x2 perm or some such, just put all your picks in the 'A' column and that will get you a 5% bonus on any returns.

 

Remember, no Tix Picks on Sunday, though there are often sweet fish to fry - so do get involved yourself. I'll be back Monday morning.

Good Luck!
MATT

Tix Picks, 15/11/24

/in /by

A nice win for Chris with Thursday's Tix play at Chelmsford, and there's plenty to go at today, Friday, with racing from Cheltenham's November meeting, as well as Newcastle, Punchestown and Southwell over jumps, and Wolverhampton and Dundalk this evening on the sand.

If you're new around here, it's worth taking a moment to familiarise with the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £200,000 guarantee at Cheltenham...

 

 

It's an unsurprisingly challenging six-legger at Chelto but with the big guarantee it's well worth a dart or two, starting at...

1.10 Cheltenham

We start with a big field handicap hurdle for conditional jockeys, and it could well be an early bath! There are two runners, Double Powerful and Plaisir Des Flos on six-timers - double hat-tricks if you will - and they're obvious A players given their lowly starting points and waited with run styles (it's often harder for the handicapper to assess the level of horses that win from off the pace).

David Pipe is a man to keep on the team at this fixture, and his American Sniper - although lugging top weight - won this race last year off just a pound lower mark. B. Second in the weights is Whatsupwithyou, a lad with three silver medals round here and, most notably, a fourth in the Martin Pipe. He's another easy B.

I want C action here, too, and I'll lob in the Tony Martin possible plot (whose form I don't really like but whose price I respect), Young Lucy; and more interestingly/speculatively, Getalead (potentially very well handicapped on old form despite arriving on a hat-trick and a lover of good ground), Littlefoot (unexposed and showed a liking for big field quick ground at Ballinrobe recently) and Clonbury Bridge at the other end of the exposure spectrum but one who relishes a top of the ground battle in a big field.

Phew.

1.45 Cheltenham

From the melee of race one to a four-runner novices' chase. Win only for placepot purposes makes it tricky, as does 4/1 the outsider: they've all got a theoretical 20% or better chance of winning. Springwell Bay is favoured and he has looked classy on occasion, as when winning over 2m3f last time; but his pedigree doesn't assure that he'll stay even though he's gone close in lower class handicap hurdles at this range. Still, he cannot sensibly be left off A tickets; but nor is he banker material.

He'll share top billing with Hyland, an easy course/distance/going winner last month. He's up in grade but could have more to offer on good turf; and I think I'm throwing the other pair on A, too. Buddy One is the highest rated of these and can be forgiven a below par spin last time; he won at this meeting (3m handicap hurdle) last year and is usually bang there. Meanwhile, the Olly Murphy / Sean Bowen combo is hot hot hot right now, and they combine with Resplendent Grey, a winner of five of his eleven races and his sole chase run. He's the lowest rated of these but has bags of scope to step forward - though he'll need to prove he can handle both this far and this fast. I think he probably can.

Unnamed favourite as well.

2.20 Cheltenham

We're at leg 3 and could hardly be accused of taking a chance yet! This is the Grade 2 Shloer Chase and another four-cornered contest. Jonbon is a short-priced favourite, and he's six from six in his head to heads with these rivals, winning the four races in which he's faced them. Indeed, he's won 14 of 17 lifetime, and every time when off a layoff, including in this race last year. He might not win but he's got to be the banker. Sole A, and hope he's as good as ever.

N.B. If something interesting happened from a placepot perspective in one of the first two legs, you might consider laying Jonbon to cover some/all of your placepot stakes...

2.55 Cheltenham

Cross Country time and this handicap comprises largely the usual suspects, but with a couple of newcomers at opposite ends of the awareness continuum. Conflated is a mid-160's genuine Grade 1 horse that ran a close second to Jonbon in the G1 Melling Chase in April. He has all the weight to carry and this has traditionally been a sighter race for Gordon Elliott's Festival Cross Country brigade, almost all of which have been out of the frame at single figure prices. And yet this fella is taking support as I write.

Virtually unknown to the British audience - and to me - is Sweet David, a five-year-old French raider trained by Gabriel Leenders. He ran a huge race on his cross country debut at Craon and, if that wasn't a flash in the pan, he's at the right end of the handicap to get involved. Leenders deploys Felix de Giles to steer, his record over this course and distance reading 132432532 in the last few years.

It's a really tough race to unpick, with lots trying the fences for the first time, something that is generally a negative. Gavin Cromwell's Cheltenham record is right up there, and his Fameaftertheglory was third over these fences, albeit on soft ground. The quicker lawns would be a concern but he at least shapes up well otherwise. Back On The Lash won this off 138 in 2021, and a later season race over the same course/distance in 2023 off 137; he runs today from a perch of just 122, testament to his spotty form since. But as a dual cross country scorer in a field largely made up of virgins in the discipline, he might step back to something closer to his old sparkle.

In spite of my reservations, I'm taking Conflated on A along with Sweet David; and Fameaftertheglory on B and Back On The Lash on C. But I might easily have this race wrong.

3.30 Cheltenham

Six runners contest this G2 novice hurdle over 2m5f and two of them are very big prices indeed. Valgrand bashed Gale Mahler last time, which was unexpected, and both step up markedly in trip - from two miles. Gale Mahler gets five pounds more of a weight pull this time and I just don't quite believe the margin from their previous meeting, so both go on A. Potters Charm has more scope to improve but he'll need to, on both bare form and hurdling aptitude; it's the latter which sees him relegated to B on my tickets. And, while Rockstown Girl is probably overpriced at 25/1, I don't see all of the three already mentioned being out of the frame.

Unnamed favourite on B also.

4.00 Cheltenham

And we close with a 2m novices' handicap hurdle where a single non-runner will mean only three places. Sheesh. Fasol is an unexposed ex-French fastgroundophile. Group placed on the level this will be his handicap debut and, off 108, he could be absolutely lobbed in (he's got a flat RPR higher than his best current hurdles RPR - you'd normally expect the jumping one to be around 40lb superior!) - A.

Much more obvious is Balhambar, a smart flat horse when with Sir Michael Stoute and a decent dual purpose player now switched to Harry Derham. He seems to handle any ground, had a nice pipe opener on the flat last month and should go well. A.

I'm taking three on B, Chutzpal, Wreckless Eric and Clap Of Thunder and, frankly, I'm spready pretty thinly...

[Outside of the placepot, I might risk a penny each way on Dream Escape at 50/1+, just for kicks]

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All of which gives us...

 

Good Luck!
MATT

Tix Picks, Thursday 14/11/24

/in /by

Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Chelmsford, Market Rasen, Sedgefield & Taunton.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The money is good on the Essex Speedway so let's head for the polytrack for six races beginning with...

5.00 Chelmsford, a 15-runner, Class 5, 2yo fillies maiden over 7f...

Six of the fifteen have yet to race and are therefore unknown quantities, so in races like this if I'm having three picks, I tend to take two with experience and one debutant and of those with a run under their belts Magic Glow, Mrs Dowley and Sheephavensbay set the benchmark.

Magic Glow was a 1.5 length runner-up on debut at Wolverhampton in September, but never really got involved back there next/last time out a fortnight later, but if running like she did first time out that might be enough here. Mrs Dowley was third of twelve on her sole start to date, finishing strongly at Wolverhampton over 6f just three days ago and she might well relish the extra furlong, whilst Sheephavensbay produced her best effort to date last time out when beaten by less than a length over 7f at Wolverhampton (3rd of 11) last time out.

Low draws work well here over 7f and the trio above are in stalls 3, 4 and 15, but despite a poor draw, Sheephavensbay has that Chelmsford non-negotiable early pace...

Of the newcomers Antalya, Casual Encounter and Queen Sansa appeal more than the other three. Antalya is by Time Test and is half-sister to 5f winner Istanbul and 6f winners Darwina and Soulofchess. The dam Anadolu won over 5f too, so there's plenty of pace in her breeding.

Casual Encounter is by Passing Glance and is a half-sister to 1m3½f winner City Spirit. She's out of Cape Spirit whose own best efforts came at 1m3f to 1m6f, so this one might well need further in time. Queen Sansa is by dual Group 1, 1m2f winner Almanzor out of New Jazz who was a winner over a mile and made the frame in 5 of 7 starts at 7f to 1m1f.

Casual Encounter has the best of the draw in stall 6 of this trio, but I think I'll take (2) Antalya from the debutants along with (9) Magic Glow & (10) Mrs Dowley in this tricky opener.

5.30 Chelmsford, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3-5yo novice stakes over 7f...

Needlepoint sets the standard on form, having won a 5.5f maiden at Chantilly on her sole outing, but much will depend on her fitness after 17 months off. Of those with a more recent run, Space Trooper has finished 332 so far and was 3rd of 7 over 1m here on debut two months ago and most lately a 1.5 length runner-up over 7f at Newcastle, whilst bottom weight Anamika was also a runner-up last time out going down by just half a length here at Chelmsford over a mile. And having made most that day and caught late on, the drop back to 7f might help.

Safety first, I'll take all three; (1) Needlepoint, (2) Space Trooper & (6) Anamika due to concerns about the top weight's fitness.

6.00 Chelmsford, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Riot is only 2lbs higher than when winning this race last year and ran a decent race at Wolverhampton last time out. Ultramarine has made the frame in seven of his last eight over the past three months.

Extrication was a three length runner up here over course and distance four weeks ago, whilst Arctic Dawn is 223 in his last three, finishing as runner-up beaten by half a length and a length on his two A/W starts and former course & distance winner Airshow completes my shortlist having been in the frame in five of his last six and he's one of the more likely front runners from my shortlist...

...and whilst he's be an unlikely winner off his current mark, he's consistent and could well make the frame again at a big price, but I'd expect him to play second fiddle to the equally consistent Ultramarine and Arctic Dawn, so lets take those three from this one.

6.30 Chelmsford, a 11-runner, Class 6, 2yo nursery over 1m...

Respiro Solitario improved dramatically from his nursery debut to his second attempt and further progression puts him in the mix in a poor-looking contest. Manara hasn't shown a great deal in her qualifying runs, but they were all at a higher grade and only over 6f, so she could be better than she appears so far.

Flaine won at Southwell last time out, setting the tempo and staying on, so she's a real danger here, despite a 6lb penalty for that win 10 days ago, whilst Cassandraalexandra is the only other previous winner in the race having showed enough pace to win over 6f at Brighton two months ago and she's got the talented Kaiya Fraser in the saddle today. Pace scores from this field's last outing are as follows...

...and based on the limited form and pace datas we have, I'm inclined to take the two runners with a win under their belts ie (6) Flaine & (7) Cassandraalexandra, whilst also taking a chance on further improvement from (1) Respiro Solitario

7.00 Chelmsford, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...

Kessaar Power, Dashing Donkey and Meng Tian were all runners-up last time out with Kessaar Power winning three races ago beating Meng Tian by 2.5 lengths. United Force won his penultimate outing and Dashing Donkey's last six read 114732. Low draws do well here, which is good for the likes of Heeratthetrack, This Time Maybe, Dashing Donkey and United Force in stalls 1 to 4...

...whilst the pace profiles of Elterwater, Kessaar Power and Dashing Donkey seem ideal for the task ahead...

...the runners without swathes of red on Instant Expert are...

...and if we use these six runners to refer back to the pace draw heat map...

...it has to be (3) Kessaar Power & (4) Dashing Donkey here with one other, who I think might just be (6) Meng Tian, who is decent nick and has made the frame in four of his last five over course and distance including finishing as runner-up 2.5 lengths behind Kessaar Power almost three weeks ago, but he's 5lbs better off here which could give him a great chance of being in the mix yet again.

7.30 Chelmsford, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

Flying Fletcher is two from three, having landed a pair of 6f handicaps at Newcastle by 3.5 lengths and 2.5 lengths more than ten months apart, winning pulling away nine days ago, so if he handles the Poly as well as he does the tapeta, he's got a great chance. Justcallmepete won three starts ago, as did Daytona Lady, who has two wins and two runner-up finishes from her last six outings.

Happy Tears has won and placed third in her last two and her last seven read 3325513, so she's pretty consistent and did win over course and distance at the end of August and my form shortlist is completed by Fantasy Master who drops in class after winning at Nottingham last time out and he has two wins and three places from his last nine and it will be interesting to see if he can transfer his good recent form over to the A/W where his record reads 0877, albeit spread over four years!

There's no great pace in the race..

..so we could get a falsely run race which would suit those with the best records under these conditions and if we look at both the win and the place elements of Instant Expert, this is the entire sum of the positive 'green blocks'...

...so I'm on (1) Flying Fletcher, (2) Justcallmepete & (6) Happy Tears for the finale.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Antalya, (9) Magic Glow & (10) Mrs Dowley

Leg 2: (1) Needlepoint, (2) Space Trooper & (6) Anamika

Leg 3: (6) Ultramarine, (8) Arctic Dawn & (10) Airshow at the expense of Riot.

Leg 4: (1) Respiro Solitario, (6) Flaine & (7) Cassandraalexandra

Leg 5: (3) Kessaar Power, (4) Dashing Donkey & (6) Meng Tian

Leg 6: (1) Flying Fletcher, (2) Justcallmepete & (6) Happy Tears

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

Please Note The bad news is that I'm away in Europe on business (I run a travel agency aside from my Geegeez duties) from 4am Friday until late Wednesday so my next column will be in a week's time on the 21st November. The good news for you guys is that Matt will be providing you with his Tix Picks in my absence.