Tag Archive for: Tix

Tix Picks, Saturday 28/12/24

/in /by

Saturday's racing comes from Catterick, Leicester, Leopardstown, Limerick, Newbury, Newcastle & Southwell.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a huge £100,000 placepot guarantee at Newbury...

...and with so much money at stake at Newbury, I really should make that my focus today for six races on good to soft ground starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.05...Spring Note is two from over this track/trip over here including a win in this race last year and has also scored at 2m3f here, but was pulled up before the last here four weeks ago on her seasonal bow. Should come on for the run and the drop back to a favoured trip and down in class. Break My Soul is one of those ideal placepot types with six places from her seven starts to date. Was beaten by just a nose at a higher grade at Ascot two starts ago and jockey bookings suggest she's the yard no. 1 ahead of Spring Note above. First time hood today too.

Panic Attack went really well at Ludlow earlier this month, finishing third on yard debut for Dan Skelton in a Class 2 handicap, despite coming off a break of over 21 months, going down by just over two lengths staying on. Down in class, she could go well here if feeling no ill effects from the comeback run. Sunset Marquesa is lightly raced, but won a Class 4 bumper on debut and made the frame in three Listed bumpers. Was a runner-up on hurdles debut after an eight month break and then won by 11 lengths at Uttoxeter next/last time out. Up in class here, but shows promise and a mark of 114 isn't punitive.

Tour Ovalie has three wins and three places from her eight handicap starts and is 311 this season. She's down in class here, but up another 6lbs for her latest run/win. That said she's still only 13lbs higher than her opening mark from March, so she might not yet be in the handicapper's grip.

All five are more than capable of winning/placing here, but I'm going with (2) Break My Soul, (4) Panic Attack & (6) Tour Ovalie.

Leg 2 @ 12.37...Koapey has knocked on the door on both starts to date, finishing as runner-up in a bumper and in a 2m hurdle, both at Ffos Las and he travelled well in both races. The winner of the hurdle contest has made the frame again since, so today could be Koapey's day. La Marquise might however be the one to beat here. She won two of three bumpers before finishing third in a grade 2 one at the Aintree Festival this year. She then took 196 days off but came back in late October to win on her hurdles debut despite being badly hampered and she should come on for the experience.

Wotter Trotter has just one run to date, but showed signs of potential/promise when only beaten by 4.5 lengths on debut at Huntingdon three weeks ago. His jumping was decent enough and he finished well to come home fourth of the ten runners. Bottom weight Star Time gets chunks of weight all round as this 3yo makes a hurdling debut off the back of two Flat wins over 1m2f and 1m4f. This form should help scoot between hurdles, so it's just a case of how he jumps. He's worth considering at what should be a decent price.

(4) Koapey and (8) La Marquise seem to pick themselves, so I think I'll take (11) Star Time as the backup for a bit of value.

Leg 3 @ 1.12...Skycutter is 221 since returning from a 207-day break in early November and beat the re-opposing The Good Doctor by a length and a half last time out. he's up 5lbs for that win but is going really well right now, whilst the runner-up, The Good Doctor, was a further 15 lengths clear of the pack that day on what was his first run for over seven months and was his chase debut. There's more to come from this one and he's 3lbs better off with Skycutter today.

No Risk With Lou has a win and a place from three starts since being fitted with a hood and being ridden more patiently. This former front-runner has been held up in rear on those three races but there's a danger of him getting left adrift here with four of his rivals usually happy to crack on. The Famous Five won a pair of Class 4 handicaps at the end of last season before a 252 day break. He was 7th of 13 at Class 1 on his return and not disgraced in a 12 length defeat and the horses in 9th, 11th and 12th that day have all raced and won since, including Ooh Betty (12th) who scored as recently as yesterday in a race we covered.

(1) Skycutter, (3) The Good Doctor & (5) The Famous Five would be my 1-2-3 here.

Leg 4 @ 1.45...Go To War looks the yard pick of the two Nicky Henderson runners and he has finished 3112 in his last four starts, going down by just over four lengths at Huntingdon last time out on his return from more than eight months of the track, so he should be ready for this. Mr Bramley was the runner-up in the last two of three bumper runs and has made the frame in all four starts over hurdles, finishing 1131 and was a ready 6.5 length winner at Wetherby a month ago despite just coming back from seven months off.

Mr Hope Street is also in great form with a last five form line reading 11211 with wins at 2m4f to 3m and the defeat was by just half a length on his return from five months off. A mark of 124 is an 8lb rise, but that might not anchor him just yet. Getalead has finished 11815 so far this term and 1115 under today's jockey, 7lb claimer Gearoid Harney. He weakened quite badly off this mark last time out and it may be that he's either in the assessor's hands or he just needs a bit of a break as this will be a sixth race in nine weeks.

I'll leave Getalead out, despite his obvious ability and stick with the more in-form trio of (4) Go To War, (5) Mr Bramley & (6) Mr Hope Street.

Leg 5 @ 2.20...Surrey Quest is rated some 11lbs higher than when winning this race last year and ended last season by getting beaten on the nod in the Class 1 Scottish Grand National at Ayr in April. He was then rested for seven months before coming back to achieve another Class 1 runner-up spot, this time at Cheltenham over a trip similar to this one. A good run is expected, but a mark of 139 leaves little room for error. Henry's Friend won at this meeting last year before going on to win at Class 3 and Grade 2 on his next two outings. Hasn't been the same in his two runs this season so far, but battled hard in a 7.5 length defeat over course and distance in the Class 1 Coral Gold Cup last time out and now drops in class.

Brave Kingdom is lightly raced, but is solidly if unspectacularly consistent. He won his sole bumper way back in February 2021 and then finished 131 in his three efforts over hurdles, all inside the last eight weeks of 2021. He was then off track for almost 23 months before winning on chase debut at Plumpton in November of last year. he won again next time out a month later, but was pulled up on his last start in a Grade 2 at Ascot and is of obvious interest with an overall 5 from 7 record and a history of running well after a break. Inch House clearly has potential as results of 4313112 from his first seven starts would show, culminating in a Class runner-up finish last New Year's Day at Cheltenham. Conversely, he ran poorly in two subsequent runs last season and was pulled up here at Newbury last time out on his seasonal reappearance/yard debut. Cheekpieces are applied today and we'll wonder which Inch House turns up.

Hoe Joly Smoke made the frame in the four of the five hurdle races he completed, but didn't manage to win any (23P32) and was a runner-up on chase debut at Uttoxeter in mid-October before going on to break his duck with a soft ground win over 3m½f at Sandown three weeks ago. He's up 7lbs for that win, but still lurks dangerously down near the foot of the weights (gets 12lbs off Surrey Quest for example) and probably/hopefully has more to give.

Surrey Quest's weight means I'll reluctantly omit him from my bet builder and Inch House's inconsistency rules him out for me, leaving me with (3) Henry's Friend, (4) Brave Kingdom & (8) Hoe Joly Smoke for this one.

Leg 6 @ 2.55...Bill Joyce has proven tough to beat so far, aside from a poor run in the Grade 1 Champion Bumper at this year's Cheltenham Festival. He had won both his previous bumpers quite comfortably and was was rested for eight months after the defeat. Since then he is two from two over hurdles and landed a Grade 2 at Sandown three weeks ago. Regent's Stroll has yet to taste defeat, winning two bumpers and his hurdles debut. That last run was here at Newbury a month ago where he defied a bad mistake two out to win by almost ten lengths. Significantly up in class and trip here, but the potential is clear to see.

The New Lion also has a similar three from three record after winning a bumper in April and hurdles successes over 2m4f at Chepstow two months ago and here over course and distance a month back. This trip clearly holds no threat to him, but like Regent's Stroll, he also faces a step up in class. Any of the three could win this and they'll probably head the market too, so I'm going to take all three ie (1) Bill Joyce, (5) Regent's Stroll & (6) The New Lion in a safety-first approach and if you asked me for a winner, I'd probably go with Bill Joyce, who has won a Grade 2 over a similar trip and who'll probably offer most value.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Break My Soul, (4) Panic Attack & (6) Tour Ovalie

Leg 2: (4) Koapey, (8) La Marquise & (11) Star Time

Leg 3: (1) Skycutter, (3) The Good Doctor & (5) The Famous Five

Leg 4: (4) Go To War, (5) Mr Bramley & (6) Mr Hope Street

Leg 5: (3) Henry's Friend, (4) Brave Kingdom & (8) Hoe Joly Smoke

Leg 6: (1) Bill Joyce, (5) Regent's Stroll & (6) The New Lion

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck, everyone!
Chris

Tix Picks, Friday 27/12/24

/in /by

Hi everyone, I hope you all had a fantastic Christmas, we had a quiet (but still enjoyable) one.

Friday's racing comes from Chepstow, Kempton, Leopardstown, Limerick, Wetherby & Wolverhampton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a huge £75,000 placepot guarantee at Kempton bettered only by the £100k guaranteed at Chepstow...

I really should tackle one of those bigger pots, so I'll ease myself back into 'work mode' with a trip to Kempton for six races on good to soft ground that kick off with...

Leg 1 @ 12.45...Inappropriate made the frame in six of ten on the Flat, winning twice in his last three efforts before landing a 2m Class 2 race at Newcastle on hurdling debut eight weeks ago and looks like having more to give. Lucky Bere landed two Flat races over 1m4f on heavy ground in France earlier this year and ran well enough to finish second behind a 4/7 fav over this course and distance on his UK/hurdles/yard debut two months ago.

Midnight Rumble had a win and three silvers from his last five starts on the Flat and whilst this is a big step up in trip on hurdle debut, he could still go well for a yard in good form. Nardaran has only raced once to date, finishing third at Saint Cloud on very soft ground. He now makes a UK/hurdles/yard debut for Paul Nicholls who won this race in 2021 and speaks highly of the horse.

Kinetic took a while to get going on hurdles debut at Newbury nine days ago after having won 4 of 20 on the Flat/AW. She made mistakes early and had a lot of ground to make and although only 4th of 9, was doing her better work late on and could improve for the run. Of these five (and in card order), I'm taking (1) Inappropriate, (3) Lucky Bere & (5) Nardaran

Leg 2 @ 1.20...West Balboa has made the frame in 7 of 11 (4 wins) over hurdles and although well beaten in two Listed races ( 1 hurdle, 1 chase) so far this term, was a decent 3rd of 21 in a Class 1 handicap over this trip at Aintree in April. Della Casa Lunga finished as runner-up in a Listed race here a month ago and the drop in class is sure to help her. She did win over this trip as recently as four starts ago, when over 8 lengths clear at Ludlow.

Royale Margaux is somehow still a maiden after 13 starts ( 9 x chase, 4 x hurdle), but was second at Ascot beaten by just 2.5 lengths on November and then 4th of 12 in a Class 2 handicap at Cheltenham (3.75 lengths down) a fortnight ago, so she's definitely in good nick. That Ascot run was not only her best performance to date, but also the only time she has gone beyond 2m5f, so this trip might suit her better. Larchmont Lass finished 24145 over hurdles last season but win on her reappearance at Wincanton in early November and backed that up with a third place on heavy ground at Sandown three weeks ago. Her two wins have been at 2m6f, so she should also relish the extra yardage today.

No actual standouts here for me, but I'll take (2) Della Casa Lunga, (5) Royale Margaux & (6) Larchmont Lass in card order.

Leg 3 @ 1.55...This really should be a two-horse race between (1) Ballyburn & (2) Sir Gino and I'll put both on my bet builder.

Ballyburn has only failed to win once to date and that was when a runner-up in a 24-horse contest on hurdles debut just over a year ago. Since then, he has landed three Grade 1 hurdles and was a 13-length winner on his chase debut at Punchestown five weeks ago when coming back off a 204-day break. Sir Gino is five from five over hurdles so far, winning a pair of Grade 1 contests either side of a 233-day absence in his last two starts. If he takes to fences as he has done to hurdles, he could be a real prospect.

Leg 4 @ 2.30...Edwardstone has made the frame in more than half of his 32 career starts with a very record of 10 wins from 29 over hurdles/fences. He has fallen in two of his last four, but won a Grade 2 at Newbury in February and was only beaten by just over two lengths at that level in November at Cheltenham. Boothill was a Class 2 and a Class 1 handicap winner last season and was a 1.5 length runner-up to Jonbon in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham last time, which is no disgrace of course. He's currently 5lbs higher than his last win, but this looks weaker than his last race.

Martator is in prime form, winning each of his last five and is 2 from 2 this season after returning from a six month break. A big hike in his mark here, but you can't argue with his attitude. Soul Icon struggled at Grade 1 last time out, but had finished as the runner-up in each of his previous five races, including a Class 1 handicap and a Grade 2 contest either side of a 112-day break. Not ideal that he's 4lbs out of the handicap here, but should still run his race.

In card order, it's (1) Edwardstone, (2) Boothill & (3) Martator here for me.

Leg 5 @ 3.08...Highstakesplayer finished 3112 in his last four over hurdles and has four wins and a runner-up finish from seven over fences, including a 2 from 2 record over course and distance. Down in class here but needs to bounce back from a disappointing effort at Newbury last time out. Frero Banbou ended a run of 17 defeats when winning off a falling mark of 127 at Newcastle in a Class 1 handicap over this trip last time out. His previous win in January 2022 was off today's 134, so he might not be weighted out of this and he drops two classes.

Golden Son won here over 2m4f ten months ago, but has failed to shine in three outings since, finishing 6th of 7 and then falling in his final two runs of last season and he was last home of nine (40 lengths down) at Newbury on his seasonal bow. Has ability and is down in class, but not reliable enough yet after just seven starts. Dreaming Blue, however, is definitely going in the right direction. He has made the frame in 7 of 15 chases, winning four times and comes here on a run reading 1131. He's up against better horses here but did win quite comfortably over 3m1½f last time out.

It's going to be (3) Highstakesplayer, (5) Frero Banbou & (10) Dreaming Blue for me from this one.

Leg 6 @ 3.38...Valgrand didn't seem at his best when only 10th of 14 (20 lengths down) on handicap debut at Cheltenham a fortnight ago, but having finished 1112 in his other four runs over hurdles (the last two at Grade 2), I'd not be writing him off just yet. Aucunrisque is 331 in his three Class 3 handicap hurdle outings this season and although he's up 4lbs to a mark of 133 has every chance here, especially as he won a Class 1 handicap at Newbury off 138 last year.

Willmount is very lightly raced, but won both of his bumpers in 2023. He then won on hurdles debut after a 250-day absence in November 2023, but was pulled up in a Grade 1 almost a year ago and subsequently fell next/last time out at Cheltenham a fortnight as he reappeared from 349 days off. You'd expect Nicky Henderson to be working on his hurdling and his bumper form shows he has enough ground speed, but he does need to jump better. Ooh Betty didn't show much when 12th of 13 in a Class 1 handicap last time out, but had finished in the first three home in 10 of her previous 11, so she has every right to go well again back down in class. She won a similar event to this on her seasonal reappearance seven weeks ago which was her fifth win in ten starts and she's not out of this.

I can make a case for all four and at the risk of going against the market, I feel that the likely fav Willmount has most to prove over hurdles, so I'm siding with (2) Valgrand, (3) Aucunrisque & (6) Ooh Betty for the finale.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Inappropriate, (3) Lucky Bere & (5) Nardaran

Leg 2: (2) Della Casa Lunga, (5) Royale Margaux & (6) Larchmont Lass

Leg 3: (1) Ballyburn & (2) Sir Gino

Leg 4: (1) Edwardstone, (2) Boothill & (3) Martator

Leg 5: (3) Highstakesplayer, (5) Frero Banbou & (10) Dreaming Blue

Leg 6: (2) Valgrand, (3) Aucunrisque & (6) Ooh Betty

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, everyone!
Chris

Tix Picks, Saturday 21/12/24

/in /by

Sorry, guys! No Tix Picks on Friday, as I spent much of the morning at the emergency dentist, but I'm back now with my final pre-Christmas tilt at the placepot.

Saturday's racing comes from Ascot, Haydock, Hereford, Newcastle, Thurles & Wolverhampton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a massive £150,000 placepot guarantee at Ascot...

...and it would be just rude of me not try and take aim at the big pot at Ascot, where the going is set to be good to soft for our six races, kicking off with...

Leg 1 @ 12.40...Thank You Ma'am is still a maiden after 11 starts, but is of interest for Tix Picks, as he has made the frame eight times, including being second home in six of ten over hurdles, which is what has happened in all three starts this season. I suspect he'll be on the premises once more today. Circuit Breaker won on bumper debut and also by 16 lengths on hurdles debut (over 2m5f) at Kempton. 1m7½f was probably far too sharp for him last time out and he's of more interest back up in trip and also down two classes for his hurdling handicap debut.

Just Lucky Sivola won on bumper debut just over a year and in two hurdle contests this season (both last month) was beaten by a neck on his first attempt and then won by a short head next/last time out. An opening mark of 113 for his handicap debut gives him a great chance here. Golden Ambition is in the process of having a good season over hurdles. He was second of ten on his seasonal reappearance and in two runs since, he has won by five lengths over 2m6½f on soft ground and by four lengths over 2m7f on good ground. Trip/going should pose no threat here and another good run is on the cards.

Of these four, (3) Just Lucky Sivola is the one I like best and I'll also take (2) Circuit Breaker and (4) Golden Ambition as the backups.

Leg 2 @ 1.15...I narrowed it down to three last night starting with (in card order!) (4) Kotmask whose chase form this year reads 11F3432 and both runs this season after a six-month break have been here at Ascot finishing third in a Class 1 handicap and ten he was a Class 2 runner-up off today's mark, which puts him right in the mix, as do his past efforts on good to soft and soft ground.

(5) Prince Quali had finished 2211 in his four UK handicap chases (Jan to April this year) before an eight month break. Will have needed the run at Newbury three weeks ago, but still managed to finish third of ten and he should come on for that run. (6) Scarface is trained by Joe Tizzard who won this race last year and looks to have a good chance again this time with a runner who was second of nine in a similar contest at Newbury three weeks ago off today's mark. He has already won Class 1 and Class 2 handicap chases this year and is dangerous off a mark just 5lbs higher than that Class 1 success and he's 4lbs lower than when third of twelve in a Cheltenham Grade 2 contest back in April.

I'm just going to take all three here, but if pushed for a 1-2-3, I'd probably go Scarface - Kotmask - Prince Quali.

Leg 3 @ 1.50...Just four are set to run here and the one I like best would have to be (3) Iroko who is 1522 over fences after a good spell over hurdles where he was 3 from 3 in handicaps and third of fifteen in a Grade 1 race here at Ascot. As for his chasing results, he won at Class 3 on debut and ended last season with a a runner-up finish in another Grade 1 at Aintree (Mildmay). He made a seasonal bow at Haydock four weeks ago, beaten by just half a length at this class/trip and should come on for the run.

Of the other trio, (1) Fil Dor is probably the hardest to back even though he 'won' a Listed race last time out. Truth is that it was a 2-horse affair ran at a dawdle, so it offers no help to us and prior to that run, he had lost eight on the bounce and he's not helped at the weights here either.

(2) Jungle Boogie won his sole bumper by just over 3 lengths and his sole hurdle outing by 30 (yes, 30!) lengths before finishing 1416 over fences. He didn't see 3m2½f when 6th of 11 in the Gr 1 Cheltenham Gold Cup on his last run in March, but had won a Grade 3 at Tramore on New Year's Day. My main concern is that he has been off the track for some time (281 days) now, as has (4) James Du Berlais who was a faller at Punchestown when last seen almost eight months ago. He was, however, second of twenty-four in the Class 1 Topham handicap at the Aintree Festival and a similar run puts him in the mix here.

I wouldn't normally take three runners from a four horse contest, but I'm struggling to split Jungle Boogie and James du Berlais as my backup to Fil Dor, so I'll just take both in a safety first approach.

Leg 4 @ 2.25...Beauport tackles hurdles for the first time since April 2022 when a decent fourth of twenty-one in a Grade 3 at Aintree which followed results of 31312221. He hasn't been as consistent over fences, but has won at Class 2, Class 1 and a Listed race and won by 31 lengths last time out. At what is likely to be a big price, he might be an E/W outsider to consider, as he stays all day.

Strong Leader has made the frame in 9 of 13 starts to date and has won 6 times, including last season's Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle and then a Grade 2 at Newbury next/last time out three weeks ago despite coming off a break of 230 days. Going and trip are no concern here and he'd be my likely winner. The Wallpark is interesting today at the highest level he has raced at, but he comes here off the back of four straight wins, including a Listed race at Galway in August. This will be tougher for him, but you can't knock his form and he did beat a subsequent Grade 2 winner (Beacon Edge) by over nine lengths last time out.

Kateira was almost five lengths behind Beacon Edge in that Grade 2 race (at Wetherby) above, so I suppose that puts her behind The Wallpark here, but she herself has won two of her last three at Class 1 and then a Listed race most recently and with a 70% hurdling place strike rate (5 wins and 2 places from 10), she's an ideal placepot horse and probably a good E/W option to boot.

(7) Strong Leader, (8) The Wallpark & (10) Kateira would by my 1-2-3 here.

Leg 5 @ 3.00...Trelawne won over 2m7½f at Uttoxeter on his last hurdles run (March '23) and then over 2m4f at Carlisle on chase debut 232 days later. Since then he has been a grade 2 runner-up at Wetherby in January and won a 2m5½f handicap at Haydock four weeks ago after a break of 256 days. He likes this softer ground and should come on for his recent run.

Victtorino is only 1lb higher than when winning this race last year and comes here off the back of a good run on his season opener at Newbury. He hasn't been on a track for nine months but was a good 3rd of 13 in a 3m2f Class 1 handicap worth £142k to the winner and he'd be entitled to strip fitter today. Heloy Delabarriere is very interesting on his UK debut despite having gone twelve races without a win, but he has been second or third in seven of them, including two runs at Gr 3 and one at Gr 1 in his last three outings. if he runs to those levels here, he's definitely one to consider, although I'd have liked him to have had a prior UK run.

The Changing Man completes my shortlist of the back of a 1.25 length defeat as a runner-up of thirteen in a 2m7½f Class 1 handicap chase at Newcastle three weeks ago. The bare result and small margin of defeat speak for themselves, but if you consider that the third-placed horse was a further 16 lengths back, you see how well he ran and he'd be a contender here.

I'm going to omit the French raider, as I'd like to see him in the UK and over fences before committing, so I'll take (2) Trelawne, (4) Victtorino and (7) The Changing Man here.

Leg 6 @ 3.35...Be Aware is 12222 in his short career (all over hurdles) so far. he ended last season with a half length defeat in a 20-runner Class 2 handicap at Sandown and was then the runner-up in the 15-runner Class 1 Greatwood handicap at Cheltenham next/last time out after 204 days off the track, but again was only half a length off the winner. Dysart Enos was third in the Greatwood, three lengths behind Be Aware, despite going off as the 85/40 favourite. That defeat, as creditable as it was, was the the first time she'd been beaten after six straight wins to start her career and she's a Listed & Grade 2 winner in bumpers. She's 3lbs better off with be Aware here too.

Kabral Du Mathan steps up in class here, but has won both starts to date, landing a Class 2 contest in mid-January and then a Class 3 on handicap debut four weeks ago, showing no ill effects from a ten month break. This might be too strong for him, but the potential is there, as it might well be for Black Hawk Eagle who won on Boxing Day last year and again in late January. His two runs this season have seen him 3rd of 10 at Ffos Las and 2nd of 5 at Huntingdon and whilst this the toughest race he'll have faced, he's in good heart.

Black Hawk Eagle is probably the weaker of the four shortlisted runners, so I'll be putting (3) Be Aware, (7) Dysart Enos and (9) Kabral Du Mathan onto my Tix ticket builder.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Circuit Breaker, (3) Just Lucky Sivola and (4) Golden Ambition

Leg 2: (4) Kotmask, (5) Prince Quali and (6) Scarface

Leg 3: (2) Jungle Boogie, (3) Iroko and (4) James Du Berlais

Leg 4: (7) Strong Leader, (8) The Wallpark and (10) Kateira

Leg 5: (2) Trelawne, (4) Victtorino and (7) The Changing Man

Leg 6: (3) Be Aware, (7) Dysart Enos and (9) Kabral Du Mathan

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck, everyone and I hope you all have a fantastic Christmas.
I'll see you on the other side!

Chris

Tix Picks, Thursday 19/12/24

/in /by

Thursday's racing comes from Chelmsford, Exeter, Ffos Las & Southwell.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Chelmsford...

...and we'll follow the money to Essex for six races on the standard polytrack at Chelmsford beginning with...

Leg 1 @ 4.10...Blue Lakota seems to have got the hang of things recently, finishing 221 in three handicap starts on the A/W so far after showing very little in three turf novice races. Was more than four lengths clear at Newcastle last time out and should be the one to beat here. Bank On Kent has also been solid in nurseries, although not to the same extent. He's now a 9-race maiden, but has finished in the first three in three of six handicaps and was less than two lengths down when third of seven over course and distance last time out.

Frankies Dream ran better than sixth of seven might suggest at Wolverhampton four weeks ago. Truth is that he was only beaten by a length and a half after a slow start in a tight race. He'll wear a hood today and that will hopefully help him get away a bit sharper. Mister Coco Fizz also ran in that same race at Wolverhampton and also started slowly, but managed to finish as runner-up, beaten by just a short head, just failing to reel the winner in. He started slowly again at Lingfield next/last time out and you just can't get away with that here at Chelmsford. He makes a yard debut in a first-time tongue tie today and hopefully the new handlers will have worked on his starts!

My 1-2 here would be (1) Blue Lakota and (2) Bank On Kent, to which I'll add (6) Mister Coco Fizz

Leg 2 @ 4.40...Preanka was withdrawn early this morning, reducing my over night shortlist to just three runners here. (6) Antalya was a solid third of fourteen on debut here five weeks ago, overcoming a wide draw (stall 12) to grab a place late on. Drawn better today and dropping down a furlong, she should be in the mix again. (10) Sixteen One was unlucky to be touched off by a head at Leicester on debut back in July and didn't seem to stay 7f out at Lingfield three months ago. She had enough about her for the market to deem her as favourite and she's a half-sister to Silent Move who is a 3-time Class 4 winner over 7f/1m.

(12) Sunlit Uplands was also poorly drawn on her only previous run to date when sent off at 8/1 from stall 11 of 11 over this course and distance seven weeks ago. She made steady progress after a shaky start and despite having to switch out late on, still managed to finish second just a short head behind the winner. A similar run probably wins this race today and she'd be my first choice, but I'm taking all three shortlisted runners from this one.

Leg 3 @ 5.10...Brightandbeautiful has been slowly improving and although she was fairly well beaten at Southwell last time out, she did manage to make the frame at 100/1 on a 10-runner contest. She'll go off much shorter here and could well place again today. Crest Of Light put his indifferent maiden/novice form behind him when finishing second of seven over a mile at Southwell on handicap debut nine days ago, going down by just three quarters of a length, having been headed inside the final furlong, so the drop back in trip might just help him go one better.

Thiscouldbefun is still a maiden after 8 starts, but her A/W form reads 363, all in handicaps, one on Tapeta, one on soft ground and then on polytrack last time out when beaten by just over two lengths in a 1m Class 4 handicap at Kempton. A drop in trip and class are positives here and she should be involved. Rotation is one of just two former winners in this field, having won a 6f seller at Leicester in July. His most recent effort same him finish 4th of 12 at Wolverhampton over 6f, doing his best work late on. He was only beaten by two lengths in the end and he'll probably relish the extra furlong here. Chuti Manika was third day and has raced into third again since.

(6) Crest Of Light is my first choice here and although I've little to separate the other three on my notes, I'll also take (2) Brightandbeautiful and (8) Rotation at the expense of Thiscouldbefun here.

Leg 4 @ 5.40...A decent size field (13 runners) for this, which is good to see, but it's surely a two-horse race between (1) Port Light and (2) Rajeko in card order?

Port Light won a Class 5, 1m maiden at Southwell on debut and was more comfortable than the margin of a neck might seem on paper. He carries a penalty for that win, of course and isn't ideally drawn in stall 13 of 13, but the manner of his debut run suggests there's more to come. Rajeko also won on debut, landing a Class 4 Novice race over 6f at Windsor back in June, also staying on to won by a neck. He has failed to make the frame in two starts since, but defeats at Group 2 & 3 aren't that relevant to his chances in a Class 4 Novice, but suffice to say he was only three lengths down in the Gr 2 July Stakes at Newmarket, half a length behind Aomori City who has since won a Group 2 and lost a Group 1 by less than four lengths.

Both of these go on my ticket, of course. Of the others, (4) English Lady is the sole winner, whilst (8) Ravens King has place form.

English Lady overcame a slow start to win a 14-runner maiden here at Chelmsford over 7f on debut five weeks ago and whilst this is a tougher race over further and carrying a penalty, she does at least have experience of winning a race. Ravens King is possibly slightly flattered by the bare result of third of ten runners in a Class 5, 1m maiden at Lingfield on his sole outing 16 days ago. The truth is that he was 11 lengths behind the first two home and only a similar distance clear of the horse back in 9th place. That said, you can only compete against what's in the race with you and he beat 7 of 9 opponents and the runner-up has been a Class 3 runner-up since.

Despite all that, I prefer English Lady as my backup.

Leg 5 @ 6.10...Kessaar Power wasn't great here over course and distance last time out, but had been a runner-up in each of his two previous outings (both here) and was a C&D winner in late October and if setting that last run aside, could well be the one to beat. Kitaro Kich is still a maiden after thirteen attempts, but produced what is probably his best effort to date when fourth of eleven here a fortnight ago. He was bumped early and got carried right in the closing stages but was staying on and could well get closer back up in trip.

Glencalvie won over course and distance back in February and also over this trip at Yarmouth in April and although not in the best of form of late, this looks a fairly poor race. so he's not out of it entirely. Reel Power made good progress in the summer of 2023, winning over a mile at Brighton before finishing second of twelve in a Windsor handicap. He was then off the track for 400 days and looked rusty on his return finishing last of ten back at Brighton over 1m2f in October, but was a very creditable third of ten over a mile at Kempton next/last time out, beaten by just a length and three quarters in a race where the horses placed 1st, 5th and 6th have all raced and won since.

My 1-2 here would be (1) Kessaar Power & (7) Reel Power and I think I marginally prefer (2) Kitaro Kich over Glencalvie. That said, the latter might well go off at a big price and with bookies paying four places here, he could still be a viable E/W bet.

Leg 6 @ 6.40...Bo Taifan won over C&D 7 starts/3 months ago and alonst took advantage of a falling mark when second of ten at Lingfield a fortnight ago. He was headed close to the line and was beaten by just half a length. Dubai Harbour went one better and won at Lingfield last time out, getting home by a neck holding on gamely over 1m2f. he's up 2lbs for that win, but will appreciate the drop back in trip.

Reverberation is the veteran of some 90 previous races but still looks in good nick at 9yo, coming here off the back of finishing 3rd of 13 over 1m2f at this track a week ago in a race he incidentally won last year and whilst not getting any younger, has a win and five places from nine starts this year. Rising Force was 3rd of 12 over C&D in mid-November and backed that up with a C&D win by more than two lengths last time out. He won pulling clear, so there was probably more to come, suggesting that a 5lb rise might not stop him.

Forever Proud completes my shortlist and she has made the frame in 7 of 15 this year so far, winning twice. She faded late on over 1m2f here a fortnight ago, but was 3rd of 11 on her last run over today's trip, whilst her last win came off a mark 2lbs higher than today.

Five to consider, but my 1-2-3 is going to be (6) Rising Force, (2) Dubai Harbour & (5) Reverberation.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Blue Lakota, (2) Bank On Kent & (6) Mister Coco Fizz

Leg 2: (6) Antalya, (10) Sixteen One & (12) Sunlit Uplands

Leg 3: (2) Brightandbeautiful, (6) Crest Of Light & (8) Rotation

Leg 4: (1) Port Light, (2) Rajeko & (4) English Lady

Leg 5: (1) Kessaar Power, (2) Kitaro Kich & (7) Reel Power

Leg 6: (2) Dubai Harbour, (5) Reverberation & (6) Rising Force

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Wednesday 18/12/24

/in /by

Wednesday's racing comes from Dundalk, Kempton, Lingfield, Ludlow & Newbury.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Newbury...

The biggest guaranteed pot is at Newbury, where the ground is expected to be good to soft, so let's head there for six races, starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.05...This really looks like Liam Swagger's race to win/lose. He tuned up for hurdling with seven Flat/AW runs over the summer, making the frame on five occasions before winning a Class 2 hurdle first up at Market Rasen in late September and has since landed a Listed race at Wetherby.

If there's going to be a challenge, it will probably come from Believitanducan on hurdle debut. He finished 322 over 1m6f on the Flat in the summer and then showed he'd get this trip with a win over 2m at Beverley in July, whilst Liam Swagger's stablemate Kinetic is also interesting, receiving weight all round. He had a run of form reading 211141 over 1m4f-1m6f in the summer and he now drops in class for his hurdles debut.

I'll take all three here ie (1) Liam Swagger, (2) Believitanducan & (9) Kinetic

Leg 2 @ 12.40...Beylerbeyi made the frame in 10 of 22 on the Flat/AW, winning four times, including his last run in that sphere at Wolverhampton in October. Things didn't go to plan after a mistake at the third flight of his hurdle debut at Ascot last month, but he'll come on for having had the run. El Rayo's hurdling debut was a more successful affair, finishing third of eleven at Huntingdon, coming off a nine-month break. He was only a length and a quarter off the winner and the runner-up has made the frame again since.

Roysse looks the one to beat here with three solid runs under his belt. After finishing 4th of 17 on debut in a Wincanton bumper thirteen months ago, he then won a bumper here over course and distance in January before taking nine months off. He reappeared last month to finish second (headed late on the run-in by a horse who was a Listed class runner-up 11 days ago) over today's class, track and trip on hurdle debut and there's probably more to come.

Sergeant Fury will need to bounce back from a disappointing effort at Huntingdon 10 days ago, having finished third in both a bumper and on hurdles debut last month, whilst bottom-weight Mistress Emma finally makes her way back to the track some 903 days after winning a bumper at Worcester on debut. She has been injured but her yard (Nicky Henderson) will have schooled her well for a race they have won four times in the last six years.

(8) Roysse is the standout here, but I'll also take a chance with (3) El Rayo and (11) Mistress Emma

Leg 3 @ 1.15...Pretty competitive for a six-runner contest where (tempting fate) only Moulins Clermont seems out of the running.

Kyntara has only tackled fences once, when a distant (24L) second of nine at Hereford just over two years ago and hasn't been on a track since falling (when third) in the Grade 1 Sefton Novice Hurdle at Aintree in April. Prior to that, though he'd had a good season over the smaller obstacles finishing 11222. Mt Fugi Park makes a chase debut and just a sixth start. He won a pair of Class 4 hurdles first up last season, but the step up to Class 3 and Grade 2 seemed to find him out somewhat, but he stays and likes the mud.

Wrappedupinmay hasn't been seen for almost 11 months since winning a 3m hurdle at Exeter. He had a wind op in the summer and you can expect Paul Nicholls to have him well tuned up for a chase debut. Herakles Westwood does, however, have the benefit of both a recent run and an effort over fences, as he finished second of five on chase debut at Taunton three weeks ago, beaten by just three lengths over 3m despite coming off a 223-day absence. Should have more to give here.

Kintail has also had a recent chase outing, making his chasing bow after 289 days off, when sighted at Warwick six weeks ago. He was last home of three, beaten by almost nine lengths. He'll come on for the experience and the runner-up has already finished second again before winning at Warwick six days ago.

My 1-2-3 here would be (4) Herakles Westwood, (3) Wrappedupinmay & (5) Kintail

Leg 4 @ 1.50...Racing has little respect for price tickets, but Buckna showed signs of justifying his £350,000 sale when second in a 14-runner hurdle at Ffos Las on his Rules debut four weeks ago. He had moved for big money forllowing a PTP win at Kirkistown (IRE) in March and looks useful so far.

Captain Bellamy won a Class 5 bumper on debut, flopped in a Listed bumper and was then third at Class 2 in march. He took eight months prior to last month's hurdles debut where he was second of five at Class 3 behind Skyjack Hijack who stepped up in class to win next time out. The only fly in the ointment from Captain Bellamy's last run is that he was 26 lengths off the winner, but in fairness was 24 lengths clear of the third placed horse.

De Kingpin was a heavy ground runner-up on his sole bumper outing in March and then finished a solid third of eight at this grade on hurdles debut at Sandown 252 days later, but didn't run to that level next/last time out despite dropping in class, finishing just 5th of 9 as an odds-on fav. I think he's better than that.

This trio are the ones with any discernible 'form' to their names and pretty much pick themselves, but there's an interesting (to me, anyway) debutant in the shape of Nativehill, who hasn't been seen since landing a PTP at Loughanmore in April 2023. He's a half-brother to the useful Bellshill and Chieftain's Choice, he changed hands for £260k after his PTP win and you know that with Nico de Boinville riding for Nicky Henderson that he'll be asked to give everything and I think I prefer his potential to De Kingpin's last run.

So, its (1) Buckna, (2) Captain Bellamy & (7) Nativehill here for me.

Leg 5 @ 2.25...Just five go to post here and I don't much like Harper's Brook, even if he did win a Class 2 chase back in February, so that takes me to four contenders...

General Medrano is possibly the one to beat dropping down in class after a comfortable nine length success in a £26k Class 2 handicap over course and distance less than three weeks ago. he's up 10lbs here, but that shouldn't be enough to stop him. Primoz won the first and last of his four hurdles races and scored on chase debut, landing a Class 3 handicap at Wetherby in mid-October off the back of a six-month break. He possibly found 2m4½f too far at Cheltenham last time out and will appreciate the half mile drop in trip here.

Bourbali has stacks of experience after 28 starts, making the frame in half of them including 6 wins. He's 2 from 8 over fences and won most recently at Kempton, making all of the 2m2f and jumping soundly. He tired over 2m5f at the same venue next/last time out, but managed third of seven and will also appreciate the shorter race here. Javert Allen is interesting on just his six outing. He finished 1222 over hurdles, beaten by just three quarters of a length by the useful Lowry's Bar at Wincanton a year ago. He didn't re-appear until six weeks ago, but landed a Chepstow chase over today's trip and I expect/suspect he has more to offer.

I've got this as a two-horse race between (1) General Medrano & (5) Javert Allen with a slight leaning towards the former. If these fail, then (4) Bourbali might edge Primoz out.

Leg 6 @ 3.00...Densworth is inconsistent, but has won 5 of 11 starts. His inconsistency is highlighted by the fact that he has failed to either finish or make the frame in 5 of 11 starts too, but did win by 7.5 lengths in a Class 3 chase at Wetherby a month ago at this class/trip. He's up 9lbs for that win, but if in the same mood, could well again here. The Edgar Wallace made the frame in 5 of 6 bumper/hurdle outings, winning twice and was a winner on chase debut in November 2021. He was placed 1122 over fences last season prior to finishing down the field in the Class 1 Topham at Aintree in April after which he had seven months off. He looked like needing the run when 4th of 7 at Kempton three weeks ago and should come on again.

Saint Segal has been a useful placepot pick in the past, making the frame in 8 of 18 starts, but hasn't got close to winning a race in nine starts since finishing 112 at the start of his chase career in November '22 to Jan '23. More is required here. Beau Balko is probably a safe one to put on the ticket builder, having only failed to finish in the first three home once in nine starts over fences and that was on debut 15 months ago. Since then he is 22133312 and drops in class today.

I've got this as (5) Beau Balko beating (1) Densworth with (2) The Edgar Wallace preferred to Saint Segal.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Liam Swagger, (2) Believitanducan & (9) Kinetic

Leg 2: (3) El Rayo, (8) Roysse & (11) Mistress Emma

Leg 3: (3) Wrappedupinmay, (4) Herakles Westwood & (5) Kintail

Leg 4: (1) Buckna, (2) Captain Bellamy & (7) Nativehill

Leg 5: (1) General Medrano & (5) Javert Allen

Leg 6: (1) Densworth, (2) The Edgar Wallace & (5) Beau Balko

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, as always!
Chris

Tix Picks, Tuesday 17/12/24

/in /by

Tuesday's racing comes from Catterick, Newcastle & Wincanton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Newcastle...

We've not played the A/W for a while and the biggest guaranteed pot is to be found at Newcastle, where the tapeta is deemed as standard for our six races which kick off with...

Leg 1 @ 3.23...Sol Cayo has barely raced since winning over 1m1½f at Wolverhampton more than two years ago, but was second here over course and distance last time out (October) on his only A/W outing since that win and is still 7lbs lower than the win. Orange N Blue makes just a sixth career start today and runs for the first time since the end of January. He finished third in each of his last two outings, so if race-fit could be involved here dropping back 2f.

Orbital, on the other hand, has been busier, running ten times in the last eight months, winning two of eight on the A/W and finishing 12252 in his last five, going down by just a neck over this course and distance a fortnight ago. Life On The Rocks completes my shortlist in the hops that he finally transfers some of this summer's turf form to the A/W. From mid-May onwards he finished 1114331 on turf, but hasn't got close in three A/W outings since, but did finish third of eleven here over course and distance in April.

Life On The Rocks seems the likely to make the frame of those four and I'll take the other three forward ie (2) Sol Cayo, (3) Orange N Blue & (5) Orbital

Leg 2 @ 3.55...Wee Fat Mac won this race last year off the same mark (63) as today and despite being winless in 16 races since, he has raced pretty well in defeat, making the frame ten times and is probably the one to beat in a modest-looking contest. Show Me Show Me is also a former course and distance winner, who wasn't beaten by far in a tight C&D contest here five days ago just getting edged out late on off today's mark of 59. Oriental Prince wears a hood for the first time today after going off too quickly in a six length defeat over 6f here eleven days ago. He had gone down by just three quarters of a length over that 6f trip here on his previous run and that's the level he needs to get back to as he drops in trip.

Henery Hawk has failed to finish in the first three home in any of twelve starts since winning back to back races over this track/trip in February. Sadly for him, that moved his mark from 54 to 63 and then to 68, which was too much for him. If ready for a return to the A/W for the first time since July, he could be dangerously weighted off a mark of just 50. Stablemate Pockley is also on a barren run of 14 races outside of the first three home since a narrow runner-up defeat over 6f here in March, but ran pretty well here last time out going down by just a length and a half despite only managing to be fifth of twelve runners. He receives weight all round, but needs to start better.

All things considered, it's (2) Wee Fat Mac, (4) Show Me Show Me & (9) Henery Hawk for me.

Leg 3 @ 4.30...Volenti has finished 32121 in his last five, all here at Newcastle with the last three all over today's course and distance. His mark only moved up 5lbs during that sequence, but he'll need to work a bit harder today up another 5lbs. Odd Socks Havana hasn't quite got back to the form he showed earlier in the year when finishing 36234112 here over course and distance, but he's now 3lbs lower than that last runner-up finish from May and just 2lbs higher than his last win and can call upon the very useful 3lb claimer Kaiya Fraser for further help with the weight.

Commander Crouch probably wasn't suited by a turgid 7f race here six weeks ago when making a debut for his new handler. There was no pace around that day and he was outpaced in the sprint tot he line. They should go off quicker here today and the extra furlong should also help. Jujubella is a lightly -raced (six starts) 3yo filly, whose two UK/yard outings to date have seen her finish 4th of 10 and 3rd of 12 over this course and distance, the latest being a 4.5 length defeat behind the above-mentioned Volenti, but she's 5lbs better off here and also wears cheekpieces for the first time, so could/should get closer if all goes to plan

Martin's Brig is another out of form sort with good past efforts, having made the frame in 7 of 16 over C&D, winning twice, the last of which was in late June six races ago off a mark of 53, before a subsequent 3rd of 13 a month later off 56, so today's mark of 50 could be a dangerous career-low.

Plenty with chances here, but it's (1) Volenti, (5) Jujubella & (6) Martin's Brig for me.

Leg 4 @ 5.00...This really should be all about Longhaired General, assuming he takes to the A/W surface. That said is yard & rider are both in good nick and they've a good record together at this venue. The horse has made the frame in each of his last three (223) on turf, including an excellent run in a Class 3 handicap at Thirsk two starts ago.

The challenge(s), if any are likely to come from Lechuga Lad, Steps In Time and/or Sorontar, I think. Lechuga Lad's yard are in good form and this race debutant comes from a dam who won over two miles and is a half-sister to Wickwing who has won over 10/11f in Italy.

Steps In Time's form of making the frame in both career starts so far could be a little misleading. Yes, he was ahead of six runners when 3rd of 9 over 1m½f at Wolverhampton earlier this month, but he was well beaten by nine lengths, so would need more here. Sorontar has been raised a pound since his last run, but he was only beaten by three quarters of a length as a runner-up at Wolverhampton last time out, staying on well over 1m½f and although this is a step up in class, it doesn't look a strong race.

(4) Longhaired General would be the one to go with here, but I'll also take (2) Steps In Time and (5) Sorontar as backups

Leg 5 @ 5.30...Jkr Cobbler is 211 in his last three outings, all here over class, course and distance in the last eight weeks. This will be tougher off 3lbs higher but he's in with a shout of the hat-trick, for sure. Panama City has made the frame in six of ten starts on the A/W, winning four times, including here at Newcastle over a mile a fortnight ago on his last run. He had to dig deep that day, so the drop back to 7f could help as he's also up 3lbs.

Pallas Lord is no mug, but has struggled since returning to action in October after almost six months off. His mark has dropped of course as a result as hee sekks to recapture the form that saw him finish 212111421 here at Newcastle in the first three months of the year. Rebeccas Girl was a comfortable winner when 3 lengths clear of the field over course and distance 11 days ago. She was up 5lbs and a furlong back here just three days later and was a runner-up headed very late on. Back down in trip, she's probably the one to beat here.

And from those, it's (3) Jkr Cobbler, (5) Panama City & (8) Rebeccas Girl for me.

Leg 6 @ 6.00...Dark Kestrel has made the frame in 7 of 15 on the A/W, but was slow away at Chelmsford last time out, which is usually fatal to one's chances and he ended up 4th of 8. Prior to that, he had finished 4313 in four runs on tapeta with a course and distance win here in late October, so he's not out of this. El Bufalo produced his best effort to date when beaten by less than a length at Chelmsford 12 days ago, only being headed in the closing stages. He did also win a 5f maiden on the tapeta at Wolverhampton this time last year.

Paddy's Day is one of those 'nearly' horses who always seem to run their best race, but don't quite do enough to win. He has made the frame in six of twelve on the A/W, but hasn't won any of 13 Flat/AW races since a course and distance win here over 13 months ago. That said, his A/W form since that win reads 42232, so you know he's going to be in the mix again even if he is up another 2lbs for not winning!

Mondammej won over 5f in a Class 2 handicap at Wolverhampton on 23rd November 2021 off a mark of 97 and subsequently lost 40 races on the bounce, making the frame just seven times! He had a wind op recently and then returned to the winner's enclosure for the first time in exactly three years when winning here over course and distance on the 23rd November off a mark of 68 and has since won again over course and distance off 70 and seeks a 24-day hat-trick today. The Ridler is winless in sixteen races, so not quite at Mondammej levels just yet and he was a runner-up here over 6f last time out, headed late on and should benefit from a drop in trip.

I can see (6) Mondammej competing the hat-trick here today, but I'm also taking (1) Dark Kestrel and (3) Paddy's Day to complete my tickets.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Sol Cayo, (3) Orange N Blue & (5) Orbital

Leg 2: (2) Wee Fat Mac, (4) Show Me Show Me & (9) Henery Hawk

Leg 3: (1) Volenti, (5) Jujubella & (6) Martin's Brig

Leg 4: (2) Steps In Time, (4) Longhaired General & (5) Sorontar

Leg 5: (3) Jkr Cobbler, (5) Panama City & (8) Rebeccas Girl

Leg 6: (1) Dark Kestrel, (3) Paddy's Day & (6) Mondammej

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck, everyone!
Chris

Tix Picks, Monday 16/12/24

/in /by

Monday's racing comes from Naas, Plumpton, Southwell & Wolverhampton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Wolverhampton...

 

...and I'll take a look at Plumpton where the going is expected to be good to soft.

Leg 1 @ 12.40...Epic West was an easy 7.5 length winner on debut at Carlisle four weeks ago on soft ground and should go well again dropped back slightly in trip for a yard with a 31% win and 59% place strike rate with runners on their second start. Touquet has won over course and distance and is two from four so far with a 1 from 2 record in bumpers and also the same over hurdles after winning first time out in each sphere. Each time, though, a step up to Class 2 was too much and he's back down in class today with his yard having a good record here (21 wins and 9 further places from 59 over the last five years)

Andashan makes a hurdling debut here and has a win and a place from two bumpers; winning a Class 4 on debut and then an excellent third of twenty at Class 2 last time out. Down in class today and his yard won this race last year. Westerton completes my shortlist even though he has yet to transfer his Flat ability over to hurdles. He made the frame in six of twelve on the Flat, winning at Class 2. He handles soft ground well, but just hasn't quite made it over hurdles yet. He was, however, only beaten by less than five lengths on his last effort and wears blinkers today.

I do think that Westerton has more to offer, but he's not at the level of the other three, who I'll be putting on the ticket builder ie (1) Epic West, (2) Touquet & (3) Andashan.

Leg 2 @ 1.10...Just five go to post and I'm not keen about Hugo's New Horse, so I'll pick from four...

Dubrovnik Harry last tackled a fence in November 2022 when 3rd of 9 at Exeter, beaten by 13 lengths as a 7/4 fav. Hasn't raced anywhere since early February either, but was a good 3rd of 14 in a Class 1 handicap hurdle. Alien Storm has only won twice in seventeen starts, but both wins have come here at Plumpton in a 2m hurdle (Oct '22) and a 2m1f chase in September of this year. Has finished third in both starts since that last win and is at least race-ready.

D'Jo Dela Barriere only won one of six PTP races, but those races have given him jumping experience and he was 4th of 10 on chase debut back in May and comes here off the back of a facile 13 length success in a Novice Hurdle at Hereford when making all five weeks ago. This is tougher, but he's clearly fit. Diplomatic Ash unseated his rider on chase debut at Kempton after being badly hampered at just the second fence, but ran creditably next/last time out when 4th of 11, beaten by 8 lengths at Lingfield five weeks ago. There's scope for improvement, I think, but he's going to need it to win this one.

It's (1) Dubrovnik Harry & (3) Alien Storm for me in this one.

Leg 3 @ 1.40...This looks a weak affair and only three horses spark any interest for me...

(1) Bold Recruit is no stranger to receiving place money, after finishing as runner-up in all three starts under Rules having also finished third and second in a pair of PTP races earlier this year. (4) Ken Roy has also run to a fairly consistent level in three starts so far, finishing third in a pair of Class 4 bumpers, before a 7-length defeat at Class 3 on hurdles debut last month. he's down in class here and his yard have a good record at this venue.

Both of the above runners are in good nick right now, but (3) Jail No Bail hasn't been seen for a week shy of thirteen months, so we'll have to take his fitness on trust (mind you, the Honeyball string are usually well tuned). He was a solid third of none at Wincanton on soft ground when last seen and gets both this trip and also soft ground.

I might as well take all three here.

Leg 4 @ 2.10...Lady Balko won last time out, scoring by over six lengths at this track/trip eased down after making all on just her second crack at fences. Her hurdling form in 2024 read 211122 before the switch to fences and a 9lb rise might not stop her here. Northern Poet has won three of eight over fences, having completed a hat-trick in the spring of 2023. More 'recently' he was a solid 5th of 20 at Cheltenham (Class 3) in April and then second of four here over course and distance behind Copperhead, who has since finished 1122, all at Class 2, which bodes well and he ahs ahd wind surgery during his layoff.

Village Master had a modest three race hurdles 'career' last season finishing 577 to acquire/earn a handicap rating of just 78 prior to a switch to fences, where he went on to win his first five on the bounce in a nine-week spell, closing the season out with a win at Fontwell off a mark of 110! He never got going at all at Ffos Las on his seasonal reappearance, but should come on for the run. Sadler's Bay returned form a ten month break to finish a decent third of ten on soft ground, even though the trip was probably too short for him. That took his run of chase results to 42233 and although I don't expect him to win here, he will win a chase somewhere with that level of consistency.

(1) Lady Balko should be winning this ahead of (4) Village Master with little to choose between my other pair.

Leg 5 @ 2.40...Macari was disappointing over course and distance here a fortnight ago, only managing 5th of 11, 24 lengths off the winner, which was a surprise after finishing second of seven over this same track/trip four weeks earlier, going down by only half a length after a mistake at the last cost him the race. Prior to those races, he'd had a good summer (23221) in Flat handicaps, so he should be quick between hurdles and takes a drop in class here. Tara Iti has raced twice since a five month summer break and has been the runner-up in both (2m sellers). She has only been beaten by 1.25 and 4.5 lengths respectively, but the trip seemed too sharp and the extra 5f could help here.

Whynotnowroy ended last season with handicap hurdle results reading 2431, culminating in a 6.5 length win over 2m6f at Fontwell in early May ahead of a break of more than six lengths. He re-emerged to finish second of ten over that same Fontwell track/trip and should come on for the run off the same mark. Mutley Crew was game when getting off the mark on his handicap debut over 2m3½f on soft ground at Fontwell in October, when he had to dig deep to pull away by three lengths in the closing half furlong. The extra furlong and a half should help here, but he is up 6lbs for that win.

I can/could make a case for all four, but Tara Iti makes less appeal than the other three, so I'll take (1) Macari, (7) Whynotnowroy & (8) Mutley Crew here.

Leg 6 @ 3.10...Just six are set to run in our finale and I think the top half of the card is where it's at...

(1) Hidalgo Des Bordes has finished 173 over fences so far and ran creditably up in trip to this distance last time out and has been eased a pound. Hasn't raced for 204 days, though, during which time he has had a wind operation.

(2) I Shut That d'Or was a course and distance winner here in early November and followed that up by finishing as a half-length runner-up at Wincanton last time out having conceded 24lbs to the winner.

(3) Mutual Respect has been running consistently well since the summer of 2023, finishing 1238112 with that 8th of 13 at Worcester excusable in September this year, as it came off a 348-day break. He runs off the same mark as his last run, which is only 2lbs higher than his win two starts ago and the only question about him is whether he handles the step up from 2m1½f to 2m4f.

I'll be taking all three from this one, though.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Epic West, (2) Touquet & (3) Andashan

Leg 2: (1) Dubrovnik Harry & (3) Alien Storm

Leg 3: (1) Bold Recruit, (3) Jail No Bail & (4) Ken Roy

Leg 4: (1) Lady Balko & (4) Village Master

Leg 5: (1) Macari, (7) Whynotnowroy & (8) Mutley Crew

Leg 6: (1) Hidalgo Des Bordes, (2) I Shut That d'Or & (3) Mutual Respect

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Tix Picks, Saturday 14/12/24

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Saturday's racing comes from Cheltenham, Doncaster, Fairyhouse, Newcastle, Southwell & Wolverhampton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a huge £150,000 placepot guarantee at Cheltenham...

Things didn't exactly go to plan for me at Cheltenham on Friday, but my shortlists showed I was looking at the right horses, even if my final decision was a little off, so I'll head back to the good to soft ground at HQ undeterred for another crack starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.10...Quantock Hills was second on debut at Wetherby two months ago but won next/last time out by seven lengths at Fontwell. This, however is a big step up in quality and more will be needed here. Moutarde also steps up in class after a 7 length success on his last run after finishing a distant 4th of 10 here at Cheltenham on his UK debut in a similar race to this one.

Total Look was a winner on the Flat over 1m2½f at Roscommon in May, before a runner-up finish over 1m4f at the same venue in mid-October. He then made a hurdles debut at Navan four weeks ago, where he travelled strongly and jumped well to win by half a length. His ground speed could hold the key. Small Fry is also quick across the ground having finished 121122 in six efforts on the Flat since mid-July. he has since tackled hurdles twice but after finishing a reasonable third at Fontwell was last home of 5 beaten by 28 lengths at Sandown earlier this month.

Ambiente Amigo gets weight all round here and won on hurdling debut at the end of October before finishing third of ten in a Listed race last time out. More than useful on the Flat too, she could be going places.

In a tricky race to call (8) Ambiente Amigo would be my first choice ahead of (3) Moutarde and (4) Total Look. Moutarde was actually 28/1 with Bet365 on Friday evening and that looks a very tempting E/W play.

Leg 2 @ 12.40...Peaky Boy finished second and then first in two bumpers and is three from three over obstacles (2 x hrd & 1 x chs), all here at Cheltenham over 2m4½f. This trip will test him, but he always seems to have plenty in hand and the five-timer beckons. Transmission won his last hurdle race (over 3m1f) back in April and then was second here at Cheltenham over 3m½f on his chase debut October. He then stepped up a furlong this course and distance for his first win over fences four weeks ago and is only up 3lbs.

Haiti Couleurs won both of his last two over hurdles in the spring and would have own on chase debut at Chepstow in October but for a bad mistake at the last. He did, however, set the record straight with a 15 length success at Aintree five weeks ago and he's the one to beat here for me. Livin On Luco comes here off the back of a win at Newton Abbot when coming off a 207-day absence to make a debut over fences and a first handicap run.

I fancy (6) Haiti Couleurs to edge out (2) Peaky Boy here and I'll also take (9) Livin On Luco as the backup plan who might also be a nice E/W option at 25/1.

Leg 3 @ 1.13...Coco Mademoiselle was only beaten by a head on chase debut back in September, but ten lengths clear of Jesuitique back in fourth place who has since won a Class 2 handicap. Coco won her sole bumper prior to finishes of 212P12 over hurdles and this makes her my 'one to beat'. Autumn Return is two from three over fences so far but has had some fitness/injury issues this season. Was useful over hurdles, making the frame in 8 (4 wins) of 12 and if fit/ready could go well again here at a big price (22/1 E/W anyone?)

Realisation won over hurdles at Southwell this time last year but disappointed in two subsequent runs prior to a summer break, a wind op and a switch to fences that has seen her make the frame on both starts over fences, beaten by a length and a quarter first up and by a head last time out. Theonewedreamof was a winner over fences at Tipperary in July, but hasn't tackled a fence since and was well beaten on the Flat at Galway in August. Not one to write-off just yet, but I suspect she'll need the run here.

Bottom-weight Getbazoutofhere completes my shortlist and she seems to have come into her own over fences this year, finishing as runner-up at Exeter in April and winning at Hereford in may before a six month break. She then returned with another Hereford win and was a runner-up at Leicester 12 days ago and goes off the same mark here.

(2) Coco Mademoiselle is the one for me here and I think that (4) Autumn Return might defy the big odds, but I also can't ignore the form of (13) Getbazoutofhere, so they're my three for this one.

Leg 4 @ 1.50...Ga Law won the Paddy Power Gold Cup here in 2022 and was a runner-up in it four weeks ago for a third runner-up finish on the bounce (Gr2, C2 & C1) and was a course and distance winner here in a Class 1 handicap in late January. Le Patron was largely unimpressive on four starts over hurdles, but has been a revelation over fences in the last 14 months finishing 1114P1 with a 3 from 3 record in handicap chases including defying a 260-day break to win at Newbury a fortnight ago and he could have more to give.

Fugitif likes it here at HQ, making the frame in 4 of 8 starts including 1 win which came in this very race last year. He's 1lb lower than that run now and ran well on his comeback run recently. Il Ridoto beat Ga Law to land the Gold Cup here last month and seemed to have plenty in hand and he was only a short head behind Fugitif in this race last year; went very close in this contest last year, so this trio are fairly evenly matched.

The last one I've got noted is Gemirande who comes here off the back of a good seven lengths success at Ascot three weeks ago. He ran so well for a horse not seen for seven months that the assessor has thumped him with an 8lb rise and this new mark of 136 might just be beyond him.

A(nother) tough one to call here, with all five more than capable, but I'm going to go with the closely matched trio of (2) Ga Law, (4) Fugitif & (5) Il Ridoto.

Leg 5 @ 2.25...Six are set to run; I'll split the field in half and look at three runners...

(1) Master Chewy fell at Sandown a week ago and also fell here in a Grade 1 four starts ago, but has proven over the last fourteen months that when staying upright he always gives you a run for your money finishing 1221424, with a grade 2 win last Christmas in that line-up.

(2) Libberty Hunter might need the run after eight months off, but has finished 1123 in his four starts over the last twelve months, including a Class 3 win and a Class 1 runner-up here at Cheltenham

(5) Issar D'Airy probably has something to find on the two above, but was a good second of eight at Ascot in a Class 1 handicap in early November which shows that on his day he's very capable. he just needs more days like that!

I'll take all three to be sure!

Leg 6 @ 3.00...This race really ought to be all about Skyjack Hijack, who after finishing 7th of 11 on debut at Aintree just over a year ago has made the frame in all nine starts and has won each of his last six. He likes to set the tempo of the race, hurdles and a good change of pace and stays beyond 3m on heavy ground, so no stamina issues.

Of the challengers Clondaw General won an Irish PTP, was sold for £150k afterwards and then went on to win a 4-runner novice hurdle at Worcester in October. Has done nothing wrong so far, but this is much tougher. Jet Blue makes a UK debut after 14 races in France, winning four times up to 2m2f. Like many French imports, soft underfoot conditions don't pose a threat, but the trip might.

Western Knight has already proven to be better over hurdles than in bumpers, having won both efforts over obstacles so far, including getting home by a head over 2m6f in a Class 2 race last time out. he doesn't do things easily but is very game and will battle until the end.

(2) Skyjack Hijack has to be the pick here, but I'm also having (3) Western Knight and (5) Clondaw General in a belts and braces approach to the finale.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (8) Ambiente Amigo, (3) Moutarde & (4) Total Look

Leg 2: (6) Haiti Couleurs, (2) Peaky Boy & (9) Livin On Luco

Leg 3: (2) Coco Mademoiselle, (4) Autumn Return & (13) Getbazoutofhere

Leg 4: (2) Ga Law, (4) Fugitif & (5) Il Ridoto

Leg 5: (1) Master Chewy, (2) Libberty Hunter & (5) Issar D'Airy

Leg 6: (2) Skyjack Hijack, (3) Western Knight & (5) Clondaw General

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


I'm out of the house incredibly early on Saturday morning and therefore had to compile this late on Friday night, so fingers crossed for no withdrawals. 

Good Luck and have a great weekend,
Chris

Tix Picks, Friday 13/12/24

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Friday's racing comes from Bangor, Cheltenham, Cork, Doncaster, Dundalk & Southwell.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a bumper £100,000 placepot guarantee at Cheltenham...

The card at Cheltenham looks a tricky one, but with at least £100k up for grabs, we have to at least have a try. The going is expected to be good to soft for the card which begins with...

Leg 1 @ 12.10...Country Mile won his sole bumper and on his hurdling debut before a solid third behind a 7/4 favourite in a Grade 2 contest last time out. A mistake at the last contributed to a three-length defeat, but he was 17 lengths clear of the next horse. This is a big drop in class. Palacio steps up in class after being somewhat of a surprise winner (20/1) at Chepstow in October, where he made all on soft ground. This looks a tougher assignment.

Wingmen makes a UK debut after winning two of three bumpers and his sole run over hurdles, all in Ireland. He does like to get on with things, so I expect him to provide early company for Palacio who might then feel the heat. That's Nice won a 3m PTP back in February and a 2m3f hurdle contest at Warwick three weeks ago, so comes here defending her 100% record. She got a good ride last time out, winning more comfortably than 1.5 lengths might suggest and there's probably plenty more to come from her, especially as the runner-up won a Listed race last week and the third placed horse who was 21 lengths back has made the frame again.

That's Nice would be my pick to win here ahead of Country Mile with Wingmen preferred to Palacio, but to be safe, I'll only leave Palacio out.

Leg 2 @ 12.40...Ballymackie looks out of his depth here, but you could make a case for any/all of the other four starting with Springwell Bay who was a Class 2 winner and Grade 2 placer over hurdles and landed a Listed race at Chepstow in October on his chase debut. He didn't manage to see 3m1f out here at Cheltenham last time out, going off too hard, so the drop in trip might help. Money doesn't always guarantee success but connections bought Caldwell Potter for 740,000 Euro after he won a Grade 1 hurdle at Leopardstown last Christmas and then reappeared 340 days later to win comfortably on chase/yard/UK debut at Carlisle 12 days ago and for me, he's the one to beat.

Deafening Silence won over hurdles at Class 3 and also at Grade 2 last winter before a 351 day break from racing. He returned to action at Haydock three weeks ago and ran creditably in defeat on his chase bow, but this looks a tougher challenge. Jango Baie makes a chase debut today after finishing on the first two home in all five starts over hurdles. A winner at Class 3 and then Grade 1, he was then the runner-up in a Listed race, a Grade 2 and a big-field Class 1 handicap. He has stacks of potential, but hasn't publicly tackled a fence and hasn't been seen for eight months.

That said, I think he makes more appeal than Deafening Silence, whilst Springwell Bay might pose the biggest challenge to Caldwell Potter.

Leg 3 @ 1.15...Now we move from 4/5 runners to 15! My (in card order) shortlist starts with Valgrand who drops two classes for his handicap debut having won a Grade 2 race over course and distance in October and was a runner-up here over 2m5f last time out. The drop in trip will be appreciated. Willmount returns to action for the first time in almost a year since failing to justify favouritism in the Challow (Gr 1) at Newbury last December when pulled up three out. he makes a similar drop in class today and could well be involved if race ready, as he was 3 from 3 prior to that last run. To Chase A Dream has yet to finish outside the first two home in seven starts over hurdles, having been a runner-up in each of his first four and then winning his last three. Has had the benefit of two recent Class 3 handicap runs and should be in the mix again today, despite a 7lb penalty.

Tintintin won an 18-runner Class 3 handicap here over course and distance off just 4lbs lower back in April and followed that up with a good 3rd of 17 at Class 1 (Swinton) at Haydock in his season finale. He ran to a similar standard last time out, when 4th of 15 in the Class 1 Greatwood Handicap over course and distance four weeks ago too. Wreckless Eric completes the list off the back of a Class 3 handicap course and distance win four weeks ago. He fell when challenging 2 out at Wincanton on his seasonal reappearance in October but his overall record reads 211F1, having gone down by less than a length on debut. He's up 8lbs here though and that might slow his progress.

All five are more than capable of making the frame, but my preference would be Valgrand and To Chase A Dream with Tintintin possibly the best of the rest.

Leg 4 @ 1.50...My initial thoughts were that this might be two-horse shootout between Chianti Classico and King Turgeon and it appears that the bookies agree.

Chianti Classico is 112141 over fences, all at 3m+ with a Class 1 win at Ascot last time out on seasonal reappearance. He's up 5lbs for that, but was comfortable in victory and should be the one to beat today. King Turgeon has made the frame in 6 of 13 over fences, winning four times, but it has taken a while for him to get the hang of things on a regular basis, but has finished 2U11 in his last four, winning both of this season's starts. He is up in class here, though.

Ballygrifincottage is one of those 'there or thereabouts' types who always get mentioned in running but don't go on to win. It's now more than two years since he last won, but has a second, a third and a fourth within his last five outings, although he was a faller here at the fourth fence last time out and will probably be behind the two horses above and also Java Point who ran really well to finish second of eleven here over 3m1½f four weeks ago. That was his first run for seven months so he's entitled to come on for that effort, but he is up in class here.

Leg 5 @ 2.25...Shakem Up'arry was well beaten in the Topham last time out eight months ago and hasn't raced since, but did win twice over course and distance in his previous two runs, both in Class 1 handicaps, so he's down in class here and his yard is in great form with 11 placers (4 winners) from their last 13 runners. Shan Blue certainly isn't the Shan Blue of 2021/22 when a consistent Grade race competitor but does still tend to be in the mix if completing the race as a last seven form line reading 2PPP334 would testify. Not my idea of a winner here (winless in 12 races/4 years) but in with a shout of the places.

Numitor has won two of his last four Class 2 handicaps, including last time out at Wincanton on his return from a five-month break. He's only up 3lbs for his first visit to HQ and has every chance of going well again today, as does Copperhead who was only beaten a length and three quarters at Sandown five weeks ago having arrived there on the back of a hat-trick.

I think the above four are much of a muchness if truth be told and I suspect/hope they'll be battling for the minor place money behind bottom-weight Torn And Frayed who runs off the same mark as when a course and distance winner in a Grade 3 handicap here in January of 2002. Plenty of water has flowed under the bridge since then, of course, but has a comfortable winner at Warwick last time off 6lbs lower and a similar run should be enough.

It's Torn And Frayed for me here and of the other four, I'll think I'll take a bit of a punt on Shakem Up'arry's fitness and a return to form for Copperhead.

Leg 6 @ 3.00...And a nice 16-runner Cross Country Chase to round things off!

Delta Work was the winner of the Cross Country race at the Cheltenham festival in both 2022 and 2023 but bypassed it this year for a crack at the Grand National, where he was a gallant runner-up off just 2lbs lower than today. Stumptown comes here on a hat-trick and has won three times and finished third once in six starts this year. He ahs won over fences and also in the cross country at Punchestown and is probably my one to beat.

Latenightpass won this race last year off 4lbs lower, so is of obvious interest even if his recent results aren't as good as his connections would have hoped for. He was 12th in the Grand National, having gone well for long periods until headed at the last and will prefer this trip. Arizona Cardinal started the year with three straight wins, culminating in the Class 1 Topham at Aintree in April. He probably needed the run at Chepstow recently and has had a third wind op since that run two months ago, which is a bit of a worry.

Mister Coffey might be a strange one to conclude my shortlist, as he's still a 14-race maiden over fences. In fairness, though, we're looking for placers and he has made the frame in 8 of those 14 defeats and was a runner over this course and distance last time out, despite coming off a nine-month break. He always gives his best, as shown by a 1/1 record in bumpers and making the frame in 5 of 6 over hurdles.

With a 67% place strike rate from 21 career races, Mister Coffey is an ideal placepot pick behind Stumptown, whilst of the others, I might just take a chance on top weight Delta Work.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (4) That's Nice, (1) Country Mile & (3) Wingmen

Leg 2: (2) Caldwell Potter, (1) Springwell Bay & (5) Jango Baie

Leg 3: (1) Valgrand, (6) To Chase A Dream & (8) Tintintin

Leg 4: (1) Chianti Classico, (5) King Turgeon & (6) Java Point

Leg 5: (10) Torn And Frayed, (3) Shakem Up'arry & (9) Copperhead

Leg 6: (4) Stumptown, (12) Mister Coffey & (1) Delta Work

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck, everyone!
Chris

Tix Picks, Thursday 12/12/24

/in /by

Thursday's racing comes from Chelmsford, Newcastle, Taunton & Warwick.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Chelmsford...

...and sticking with the NH (for now), let's head to Warwick for six races on good to soft ground beginning with...

Leg 1 @ 11.55...Character Testing was a faller at the last three weeks ago, but had finished 332 in his three other efforts over hurdles, the last of which was a defeat by just a neck over course and distance. El Gavilan makes a UK and yard debut here after coming over from France, where he's a half-brother to several Flat winners. He was a runner-up on his French debut at Lyon and might be a surprise package here.

Lion Hill hasn't set the world alight in two bumpers so far, but his yard/jockey are in good form...

...and he might be a different proposition over hurdles. Clear Storm finished in mid-division on hurdles debut at Ludlow in October and was deemed good enough for a Listed race last time out, even if she was pulled up before the penultimate flight. She was useful on the flat (63315236) and should be quick enough between the hurdles if her jumping stands up and I'll think I'll take a chance on here here with El Gavilan missing out from my shortlist.

Leg 2 @ 12.25...As The Fella Says finished 241 in three Irish PTP races before selling for £60k and you can never write off the chances of the Henderson/de Boinville partnership. Check The Score has already won a 3m PTP and a 2m bumper on his debut under Rules so has some ability but was a well beaten (50L!) third of five over hurdles at Exeter recently.

I'm A Lumberjack made the frame in three of five bumpers and returned from a seven month break to be a runner-up beaten by just a short head on his hurdles debut last month. Beorma hasn't shown a great deal so far and if I'm honest, he's only on my shortlist because he represents the Skeltons in a fairly poor race.

Wednesday Addams improved in three PTPs finishing P21 and has been a runner-up in two of five over hurdles so far and has recently had a wind op. I think I'll take a chance on him as backup to As The Fella Says who should be the main threat to likely winner I'm A Lumberjack.

Leg 3 @ 12.55...Aviation was beaten by less than three lengths on debut in a Market Rasen bumper in May and made a hurdle debut here last month some six months later, but managed to finish third of sixteen over 2m. He was outpaced, though and should relish the extra 5f here. Bear Market won a Class 3 bumper on debut at Aintree in May, having won a PTP bumper at Bangor a couple of months earlier, In good hands here and his breeding suggests he'll stay the 2m5f.

Jaccours had finished fourth in each of three starts over 2m½f-2m1½f, but looked a better prospect stepped up to 2m4f last time out, when the runner-up of fifteen at Ffos Las a month ago where first and third have gone on to make the frame again, whilst the fifth and seventh have both won. Jafimgoso showed some promise in bumpers finishing 912, but hasn't really progressed over hurdles yet and was 15th of 16 here last time out in the race where Aviation was third. He's probably better than that, but Aviation holds him here and he'll be the one to miss out for me.

Leg 4 @ 1.25...Skycutter made the frame in five of ten hurdle races, winning three times and has been the runner-up in both starts over fences, beaten by a length and a half or less on both occasions. Onethreefivenotout is one of those you need to catch on a good day. He won his sole bumper and has a win and two narrow runner-up defeats from six over hurdles, but his other three runs saw him pulled up when tailed off, a 39 length defeat as 9th of 10 and he was last home of 9 when last seen some 45 lengths down at Newbury in March. has ability, but is inconsistent and makes a chase debut after nearly nine months off.

Damarta was a reasonable fourth of seven on chase debut at Chepstow in October off the back of a six-month break having finished 33132 in his last five over hurdles, whilst Lucky Lugger has already been shown to be a better chaser than he was a hurdler with two runner-up finishes at Chepstow last month and not beaten by far in either. I suspect a similar fate awaits him here as he looks to be next best behind Skycutter, whilst I'd prefer Damarta over Onethreefivenotout if I wanted to take three runners.

Leg 5 @ 1.55...Cherie d'Am failed to finish out of the first three home in six starts (112123) and was second at Gr2 and third at Gr1 over hurdles last season. She might well have needed the run after 195-day absence when last home of three on chase debut at Carlisle in October, but was still less than two lengths adrift at the post. Smiling Getaway had two wins and a place from four over hurdles and was a winner at Ffos Las on chase debut in October. Lightly raced (6 starts) for a 7yo, she could have plenty in reserve.

Telepathique also won on chase debut, winning by some eleven lengths at Fakenham at the end of October, despite not having raced for eleven months following a hurdles win at Southwell. he then went on to complete a 358-day hat-trick to win here over 2m½f three weeks ago. This looks a more difficult prospect, but there's no denying her form, but the 'class' horse in the field has to be You Wear It Well, who made the frame in 7 of 11 over hurdles, winning five times including landing a Listed race and a pair of Grade 2 contests. She was a runner-up in a Listed contest on chase debut at Bangor a month ago, defying an 8 month break and I'd expect her to improve again here and take this comfortably ahead of Telepathique and possibly Cherie d'Am, although Smiling Getwaway will be very attractively priced for E/W bettors at 16/1 or bigger.

Leg 6 @ 2.25...Montecam returns to the smaller hurdles where he is 231F, having gone down at the first at Punchestown in May. He's had the benefit of a recent run, but his jumping let him down a little when fourth of six over fences at Kempton a month ago and might be better off back over the smaller obstacles. Moon Over Mexico has only raced the once so far, landing a novice hurdle at Newcastle back in January at this class/trip. He might well need a run after such a lay-off, but the form of his win seems to have worked out well with the five runners immediately behind him clocking up a combined 6 wins and 3 places from 18 starts, including a Listed race win for third placed Pinot Rouge.

Don't Tell Su won the second of her two bumpers and has made the frame in all six (232122) over hurdles having run into a couple of decent sorts in her last couple of races. Mr Hope Street is also in good, if not better form with three wins and a half-length runner-up finish (after five months off) from his last four outings. That defeat two starts ago was to Plaisir Des Flos who was completing a five-timer having been the one to beat Don't Tell Su in her penultimate outing.

Mr Hope Street got closer to Plaisir Des Flos than Don't Tell Su did, so they're my 1-2 in that order with Moon Over Mexico making more appeal than Montecam for the final spot.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Character Testing, (7) Clear Storm & (5) Lion Hill

Leg 2: (5) I'm A Lumberjack, (2) As The Fella Says & (13) Wednesday Addams

Leg 3: (2) Bear Market, (6) Jaccours & (1) Aviation

Leg 4: (1) Skycutter, (5) Lucky Lugger & (4) Damarta

Leg 5: (8) You Wear It Well, (7) Telepathique & (1) Cherie d'Am

Leg 6: (6) Mr Hope Street, (5) Don't Tell Su & (4) Moon Over Mexico

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Tix Picks, Wednesday 11/12/24

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Wednesday's racing comes from Dundalk, Hexham, Hereford & Kempton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Kempton...

...and as I've not played Hereford for some time, we'll head there where the ground is expected to be good to soft for our six races that kick off with...

Leg 1 @ 12.35...Jac Jumper has been a runner-up twice and fourth twice in four efforts over fences and never really beaten by far, could be involved down in class and in first-time cheekpieces. Iron d'Ex battled his way to a victory at Ludlow on chase debut in October when returning from six months off the track. hasn't quite hit those heights in two runs since, but I wouldn't write him off just yet. Supasunrise has made the frame in 7 of 18 over fences and has been placed in two of his three starts this term, beaten by just three lengths last time out. 2m4f-2m5f is his preferred trip and he has made the frame in 2 of 4 over course and distance.

Boys Of Wexford has been placed in half of his twelve chases, winning twice including last time out at Fontwell where he stayed on well to win by over 4 lengths pulling away. His last five results read 322P1 having been pulled up in the only race without cheekpieces! Fashion's Model ended the last campaign with results of 24P1 culminating in a four length success at Wincanton. Hasn't looked the same horse in two runs at Ludlow this time around, but a change of scenery might do her some good.

I'll take (9) Boys of Wexford here with (3) Jac Jumper and (4) Iron d'Ex as the alternates.

Leg 2 @ 1.05...This looks like a three horse race to me, starting with (1) Pigeon House who'll look to bounce back from a poor run LTO and now runs for the first time for his new yard. Placed in 9 of 15 over hurdles, he won two starts ago at Ballinrobe and is 133361P since a creditable 9th of 22 in this year's Fred Winter.

(2) Sayva was 1 from 2 in bumpers and is 1 from 2 over hurdles after making the frame on his first effort at Sedgefield coming off a four month break, before scoring at Newcastle by twelve lengths six weeks ago. A similar run gives him a big chance here. Bottom-weight (10) I've Madeupmymind makes a hurdling debut after some decent runs in four bumper defeats. A runner-up on debut and third last time out, both at Class 5 sandwich a pair of decent efforts at Listed class and Class 2, so if taking to hurdling, she could be a cut above the rest here.

I'll take all three, of course!

Leg 3 @ 1.35...Again, there's only really three runners that I have any interest in, starting with my likely winner Secret Des Dieux, who was a runner-up on his third and final bumper run at Uttoxeter back in April before showing little on hurdling debut in May. A change of tactics and a six month break seemed to do the trip at Fakenham recently though, as he raced keenly on his way to a 7.5 length success.

Guchen remains unexposed after just one start to date back in May and although only 5th of 7 in a Southwell bumper on soft ground that day, he was only just over 4.5 lengths off the pace and the first to home have made the frame in all three combined starts since at Class 4. Montana Golden had a couple of decent bumper efforts under his belt in the summer, but never really got to grips with things on his hurdling debut at Kempton recently coming off a four-month break. He should come on for the run, he'll have been well schooled by a good yard and this looks a weaker race than LTO.

Again, all three will find their way onto my ticket builder.

Leg 4 @ 2.05...Grove Road has benefited from a switch from cheekpieces to a visor and has won both starts since the change of headgear, scoring over 3m3f at Newton Abbot in July and then again over today's trip at Huntingdon almost three weeks ago. Up in class and weight, but should still be well involved here. Drop Flight is probably a better chaser than he is a hurdler if truth be told and he was disappointing at Warwick recently. That said, he's in really good hands, ran well two starts ago to make the frame and if things fall his way, he could well grab some prize money from a modest-looking race.

Pipers Cross had made the frame in ten of thirteen handicap hurdles before moving to Emma Lavelle's yard. He wasn't disgraced on yard debut at Bangor, beaten by just six lengths after a six-month layoff and I'd expect better from him here. He didn't wear his cheekpieces last time out, but had finished 221314 in his six other races this year, all in cheekpieces which will be re-fitted today! Bottom-weight Newtonian is one of those 'close but no cigar' types who just doesn't just quite do enough to win and it'll probably be the same here. His sole win from 17 efforts over hurdles came at Warwick in May and his 2024 form reads 44431P34 and has only gone down by three lengths in both starts this season. I see him as a good chance of being in the frame today, but not as the winner.

Grove Road looks my idea of a winner here with Pipers Cross next best. Drop Flight has yet to prove he's a 3m+ hurdler, so Newtonian could be the final placer.

Leg 5 @ 2.35...This could well be a tight contest with only Ascension Day lacking appeal on chase debut having not gone well in three PTP contests. Elsewhere Tapley has been well beaten in his last two outings, including by 17 lengths on chase debut at Newbury just a fortnight ago. he did make the frame in 11 of 18 over hurdles though and was a Class 1 runner-up so there's definitely ability there if jumping well.

Finest View was also well beaten (18L) on chase debut last month, but had finished 12222 in his last five over hurdles. 2m5f was probably too far for him on that chase debut and might fare better over this 2m trip where he won 4 of 6 over hurdles. Beat Box should also love the trip with a career record of 6 wins and 4 further places from 17 over 2m/2m½f. He rattled off four wins on the bounce over fences on August/September, but was beaten by 11 lengths as 4th of 5th next/last time out and his OR of 115 might just be beyond him for win purposes, having started off just 89 five races ago.

Lime Drop was knocking on the door from his very first start over fences back in May 23 finishing 2232252 before finally getting off the mark at Uttoxeter almost four weeks ago. He seemed to have more in hand than a 1.5 length margin might suggest and a 5lb rise might not stop him. Torneo was useful over hurdles last season finishing 23126 before a six month break ahead of a chase career. He was a reasonable third of seven at Uttoxeter on his chase debut after that layoff and kicked on with a staying-on second of at Wincanton last month, beaten by just half a length. He's up 3lbs, but gets weight all round and could be a danger.

Plenty with chances here, but I actually like Lime Drop as a potential winner here and in a safety-first approach, I'll be adding Beat Box and Tapley as backups.

Leg 6 @ 3.07...It's Easy has struggled to see out longer trips, but was second of six over 2m½f at Class 4 two starts ago. 2m at Class 5, eased a pound and with a 3lb claimer on board today, this might be her best chance of getting off the mark. Villainess will run without her hood today after two uninspiring runs in it with it not having the desired effect. Prior to those two outings, she had finished 222514 over hurdles with 2214 over this trip. A Little Something is of interest at what will probably be a big price. She's unexposed after one bumper and three over hurdles, but was in the frame on that bumper run in July and was a decent second of six at Huntingdon last time out. She's down in class and an opening handicap mark of 93 might be workable and she might well be a nice E/W bet for someone.

Culligran has finished 2331 in her four handicap hurdles to date, wining here by seven lengths over course and distance a fortnight ago, having stayed on well and pulled away. She's up 7lbs for that run, but a similar effort here could/should be enough. Lady Caro is the stablemate of A Little Something and is probably Miss Lavelle's first string here. She has, however, yet to win after 12 starts, but has made the frame in three of five handicap hurdles contests and was second of fourteen last time out. She was, admittedly, some 12 lengths behind the winner who has since made the frame again, but she was almost ten lengths clear of the horse back in third.

A tricky finale for me, but I think my 1-2-3 is going to be Culligran, It's Easy and Lady Caro.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (9) Boys of Wexford, (3) Jac Jumper & (4) Iron d'Ex

Leg 2: (2) Sayva, (1) Pigeon House & (10) I've Madeupmymind

Leg 3: (1) Secret Des Dieux, (2) Guchen & (5) Montana Golden

Leg 4: (3) Grove Road, (8) Pipers Cross & (11) Newtonian

Leg 5: (4) Lime Drop, (3) Beat Box & (1) Tapley

Leg 6: (1) Culligran, (6) It's Easy & (7) Lady Caro

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Tix Picks, Tuesday 10/12/24

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Tuesday's racing comes from Fontwell, Punchestown, Uttoxeter & Southwell.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Southwell...

The money is at Southwell, but as it's the winter season, we do try to focus on the NH cards, so let's head to Fontwell for their six-race card on soft ground starting with...

Leg 1 @ 1.00...(1) Malinka already has a win and two thirds from four starts over hurdles, scoring on heavy ground at Cartmel in August beating Torrent by more than three lengths. Torrent went on to win next time out and was third in the Grade 2 Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle at Cheltenham in November.

(3) St Lukes Chelsea was a creditable fourth of eight over course and distance last time out, having previously been running over 6f/1m on the Flat/AW, so should be sharp between the hurdles.

(6) Playaway Girl is at least used to the trip, having raced in three bumpers this season already. She hasn't admittedly looked like winning any of them but the experience should stand her in good stead.

I fancy Malinka to take this ahead of St Lukes Chelsea.

Leg 2 @ 1.30...(1) High Treason won two of his last four over hurdles including on heavy ground over this track/trip in February and he made an encouraging chase debut at Newbury recently until a couple of errors put paid to any chance he might have had. He hadn't raced for 198 days, so should come on for the run and the jumping experience.

(3) Getaway Drumlee won a 2m2f heavy ground hurdle here back in March and was only beaten by just over three lengths on his chase debut at Huntingdon just over five weeks ago on his return from 200 days off. A former Irish PTP Winner, so should be able to jump and have stamina to boot.

(5) Brulure Noire is three from eight over fences, winning two from four last season, including last time out at Chepstow in April. This means he hasn't raced for 241 days but won on his seasonal bow in 2022 after 230 days off and again last year after 211 days, so I wouldn't use his absence as an excuse.

(7) Good Friday Fairy won this race last year as the sole finisher of five runners with the other four all failing to tackle the last fence. His last three over hurdles saw him finish 212 before results of 3121 over fences culminated in a seven length win at Uttoxeter in January, but was disappointing in two subsequent runs and now returns from 282 days off.

(8) Koenigsstern has however raced as recently as three weeks ago when a runner-up Plumpton on his second crack at fences four weeks after also finishing as runner-up on chase debut over 2m2f here at Fontwell. The ground was probably too quick last out and these softer conditions should suit him better.
Some good efforts in defeat in handicap hurdles/chases without looking ahead of his mark

Getaway Drumlee and High Treason would be my two against the field here and I'll also take Koenigsstern narrowly ahead of Brulure Noire.

Koenigsstern was withdrawn whilst I was writing the piece so we're now on Brulure Noire as third pick.

Leg 3 @ 2.00...The top end of the card seems to be the area to focus upon...

(1) Eileen's Milan is the only runner in the field without a recent run, having had wind surgery during a five month absence following a tame effort at Newton Abbot in July. He had howeverr an really well over the same track/trip ten days earlier, finishing second of eleven just half a length off the pace so the potential is there as he drops in class for his handicap debut.

(2) Groom De Cotte was still a maiden after 18 starts (1 x NHF, 5 x chs & 12 x hrds) before winning here over 3m2f last time out, although he had made the frame in five of twelve over these smaller obstacles. He's up 10lbs for that win, but still runs off a lower mark than some of his best efforts to date, so he's not out of this.

(4) Chancellorstown has yet to make the frame in six starts, but was a runner-up in a four-horse race at Plumpton last time out, headed on the line and beaten by a nose behind a 5/6 favourite over 3m1f. That near miss should do him good and he might finish stronger over a shorter trip.

(5) Arctic Saint returned to the UK after four runs in Ireland and a four month break to finish third of ten over 2m4½f on his yard debut at Leicester three weeks ago. His jumping was a little sketchy at times and he'll need to improve here to get closer to winning.

Of these four, I see a fairly tight battle between Chancellorstown and Groom De Cotte and I prefer Eileen's Milan over Arctic Saint for third.

Leg 4 @ 2.30...(1) Captain Claude has been in the first three home in each of his last eight starts, including a 2m3½f win here at Fontwell over hurdles as well as two chases (2m6f & 3m2½f) Underfoot conditions look ideal and his jockey takes 10lbs off.

(2) Shillanavogy was a gallant runner-up on chase debut at Cartmel back in May but struggled at Ffos Las next/last time out three weeks ago. May come on for having had the run and the drop in trip might help.

(3) Pilgrims King was going great this year finishing 321214 before being pulled up at Uttoxeter in May and then again at Ffos Las six months later when last seen three weeks ago. That said, he too should come on for the run and he's now only 2lbs higher than his last win.

(5) Leading Swoop was a solid third of eight over 2m4f here last month on his return from 196-day break. He has yet to win after 12 starts but this might be his best chance, dropped another 2lbs.

(6) Valirann Gold also went well on his seasonal bow, finishing third of eight at Lingfield less than a fortnight ago, despite being off the track for more than seven months. prior to his break he finished 14323 in his last five over fences, winning on this track over 2m3½f on heavy ground. 2m might have been too sharp last time out, so the extra distance should be a plus for him and he'd be my likely winner ahead of Captain Claude with Leading Swoop a marginal preference over Pilgrims King for third.

Leg 5 @ 3.00...This surely has to be all about (1) Hollygrove Cha Cha who is 3 from 3 under Rules after two heavy ground bumper wins in the spring were followed by a facile eight length success on hurdles debut over at Ludlow almost five weeks ago. She hadn't run for 199 days, so she might well have even more to give and she should be taking this one to go 4/4.

Of the others, if there's a challenge to be had, it will probably come from (3) Eileen's Orders, (6) Katira Du Mestivel, (7) Miss Ireland and/or (9) Two Fingers West...

Eileen's Orders was third of fifteen on hurdling debut at Warwick three weeks ago and should come on for the run. Despite falling in a good position late on in an Irish PTP, Katira Du Mestivel showed enough to change hands for 110,000 Euro, suggesting there's something about this half-sister to four winners. Miss Ireland won a 2m2f bumper here on debut in September and found 2m at Ascot a little too sharp next/last time out. 2m3½f might suit her better tackling hurdles for the first time, whilst Two Fingers West makes a debut under Rules after finishing third and then first in two Irish PTP races after which she was sold for £38,000.

It's Hollygrove Cha Cha for me, of course, but I'll also take a chance on Katira Du Mestivel. Ben Pauling is a really good trainer and she was an expensive purchase, so i assume others know her better than I do. Of the others, I suspect Miss Ireland might well be better than the big price she'll go off at.

Leg 6 @ 3.30...(1) Summer In Milan was 4th in a bumper at Cork on debut and achieved the same result in the middle run of three over hurdles when running here at Fontwell 2m3½f in October. Could easily be involved but would need big improvement to win.

(2) Almuhit was useful on the Flat, winning at trips up to 2m1f, but we're still waiting for that form to be brought over to his hurdling career, but it does mean that his mark continues to drop.

(3) John Betjeman might well be the one to beat here despite a winless run stretching back 20 races over 20 months. He has made the frame in half of those 20 defeats and could be on a dangerous mark in a poor looking race now some 12lbs lower than his last win.

(9) Motazzen is 0/9 over hurdles, but was second of eleven at Uttoxeter back in July and went well for a good way before being outpaced late on at Southwell a fortnight ago. He pretty much led until the last hurdle before being ran out of it by faster finishers, eventually coming home 4th of 11. A similar effort over a longer trip puts him in the mix today.

(7) Je Suis Sacre hasn't shown much in three starts over shorter trips to acquire an opening mark of 83, but a step up in trip, a drop in class and a stack of stats suggest this might suit him better, even if he hasn't been seen for ten months.

That said, I still think the lay-off could be an issue and I'd be more inclined to go with (3) John Betjeman, (9) Motazzen & (1) Summer In Milan

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Malinka & (3) St Lukes Chelsea

Leg 2: (3) Getaway Drumlee, (1) High Treason & (8) Koenigsstern (5) Brulure Noire

Leg 3: (4) Chancellorstown, (2) Groom De Cotte & (1) Eileen's Milan

Leg 4: (6) Valirann Gold, (1) Captain Claude & (5) Leading Swoop

Leg 5: (1) Hollygrove Cha Cha, (6) Katira Du Mestivel & (7) Miss Ireland

Leg 6: (3) John Betjeman, (9) Motazzen & (1) Summer In Milan

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck everyone,
Chris

Tix Picks, Monday 09/12/24

/in /by

Monday's racing comes from Lingfield, Musselburgh, Newcastle & Wolverhampton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Newcastle...

We've got soft ground (of course!) at both NH venues, but with Musselburgh having some really small fields, let's head to not-so-leafy Lingfield for these six races...

Leg 1 @ 12.30...This really should be all about Willie Mullins' (1) Full Confession, an Irish PTP winner, who easily landed a Fairyhouse bumper on his debut under Rules four weeks ago. He carries a penalty for that win, but it's hard to see him not winning. Next best might well be debutant (5) Wild Goose who is a half-brother to Black Poppy who has 4 wins and 5 places from 15 over hurdles and won a Class 1 handicap at Haydock last year. The yard has a strike rate of over 18% in bumpers since 2017 with over 42% of those runners making the frame.

(6) Celtic Queen showed some promise when a runner-up on debut in a Hereford bumper four weeks ago, beaten by just three quarters of a length at 18/1 and she's sure to be much shorter here with that run under her belt. It probably wasn't the strongest of races, but you can only compete with what's put in with you and the experience would have been vital.

You could just put Full Confession on your tickets here and be done with it, but I'll still take the other two as back-ups, just in case!

Leg 2 @ 1.00...With the bottom three on the card all running from outside of the handicap, I'm going to focus on the top five...

Mumbles had been running consistently well over hurdles for some time (3421214), mainly on soft and heavy ground, before taking a 224-day break. He returned to action at Ffos Las four weeks ago and was a decent runner-up on his chase debut and should improve for that run. Iskar d'Airy got off the mark at the tenth time of asking last time out, so he knows how to win, but hasn't raced since that win 610 days ago, makes a chasing debut today and is unproven on soft ground.

John W Creasy is a twelve-race maiden after one bumper run, eight hurdle races and three chases. He seemed to have got the hang of chasing when a reasonable 5th of 12 at Exeter in October, but was pulled up last time out. Maybe the huge drop in trip will help today? Rock On Tommy makes a third appearance over fences, more than 2yrs 4 months since his last one, but comes here off the back of a trio of good efforts over hurdles (324) and goes off a mark 8lbs lower than his last chase run and 9lbs lower than his last hurdle win.

Robins Field has yet to win after 18 (6 x hrd, 12 x chs) outings, but has been the runner-up in four of his six outings in 2024, including last time out at Cartmel on soft ground and maybe he's just destined to always be the bridesmaid?

(1) Mumbles makes most appeal to me here today with persistent runner-up (5) Robins Field probably likely to reprise that role. (4) Rock On Tommy might be the 'best of the rest'.

Leg 3 @ 1.30...Only six go to post now for this, but it still looks pretty competitive with the likely winner for me being (1) Diva Luna who makes a hurdling debut after a pair of soft ground bumper wins. She won a Listed event at Market Rasen on debut in February and followed that up with a Grade 2 at the Aintree Festival and I'm confident that her yard will have schooled her well.

(4) Jasmine d'Airy won a Tipperary bumper by six lengths on debut back in May and subsequently changed hands for £120,000. That kind of money doesn't guarantee success, but it shows she's highly rated. (5) Metkayina was fourth behind Diva Luna in that Aintree bumper above, having won at Ludlow on her previous outing. She's had the benefit of both a recent run and a hurdles debut, when second of six here at Lingfield over 2m3½f, a length and a quarter behind It's Hard To Know, who has won again since.

My shortlist is completed by (6) Northern Air who has finished as runner-up in both races over hurdles so far and although beaten by nine lengths at Ayr last time out should still go well here.

This, however, should be all about (1) Diva Luna and I'd expect her to win comfortably here with (5) Metkayina the biggest challenge. If you're taking three from this one, then I suspect that (4) Jasmine D'Airy might just have too much for Northern Air.

Leg 4 @ 2.00...(2) Kado De Joie has won two of his last five including last time out at Fontwell coming off a six month break and whilst he's up 5lbs for that win, he should come on for having had the run. (3) Peking Opera won a Listed race on the Flat and also competed Groups 1, 2 & 3 in that sphere, so he shouldn't lack for speed between the flights here. he did win over hurdles at Sandown in February before reverting back to the Flat for the summer and possibly needed a 'sighter' back over hurdles last time out when furth back at Sandown a month ago.

(4) Golden Maverick never really got involved last time out finishing 12th of 15 at Cheltenham coming back from a six month break, but prior to that break, had finished in the frame in all five starts (23112) over hurdles and it's not inconceivable that he goes better today. he was also useful on the Flat, making the frame in 7 of 11, winning four times and he handles soft ground well enough, as does bottom weight (8) Followango whose hurdles form to date consists of five races on soft or heavy ground with results of 32232 after winning a heavy ground bumper by 19 lengths on debut at Ffos Las 13 months ago. She unseated her rider last time out at Ffos Las, but that was her chase debut on quicker ground and came after six months off track, so we should see a different version of her here.

I can make a case for all four, but I'm only takin three and I think I'll omit Peking Opera.

Leg 5 @ 2.30...When I took a cursory look last night, only three of the twelve runners really interested and sadly my preferred option (Pedley Wood) was withdrawn this morning, leaving me with two from eleven and they are...

(2) Icaque de l'Isle has surprisingly yet to get off the mark after ten attempts, but hasn't been running badly and has been in the first three home on five occasions (which is all we need here today!) He's down in class here, jockey Harry Bannister is riding well and the horse is used to soft ground. He should be in the first three home, as will hopefully be (3) Shot Boii who has had a reasonable 2024 over fences finishing 12342P83. Of that run, he was pulled up at Southwell in April on his sixth start in less than 16 weeks, so he might have already been done for the season. He was eighth of thirteen at Ffos Las after a 201-day absence and was then back to his usual level last time out. He's two from five here at Lingfield, gets the trip and the going and also drops in class.

In the absence of my preferred runner, I'm adding (8) Twilight Glory to the ticket builder, after he ran really well to finish third of ten at Warwick recently coming off a break of 195 days and he did win twice on heavy ground last season.

Leg 6 @ 3.00...And I've also lost my number one pick (King William Rufus) for the finale, which will hopefully hand the race to (2) Dominic's Fault who was unlucky to go down by just a short-head over 2m4f at Carlisle last time out, having not raced for 254 days. He was third here over course and distance in February and won on heavy ground at Leicester and with the benefit of a recent run allied to a drop back in trip, he should be on the premises again today.

The big challenge is expected to come from (9) Star Of Affinity who came back from his own summer break to win over 2m1f at Exeter in October and he followed that up with a two length defeat as a runner-up at Ascot last time out. He was headed before the last that day over 2m3½f and he too should improve for the drop back in trip.

It really should be a two-horse affair here and I'm going to leave it as that.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Full Confession, (5) Wild Goose & (6) Celtic Queen

Leg 2: (1) Mumbles, (5) Robins Field & (4) Rock On Tommy

Leg 3: (1) Diva Luna, (5) Metkayina & (4) Jasmine D'Airy

Leg 4: (2) Kado De Joie, (4) Golden Maverick & (8) Followango

Leg 5: (2) Icaque de l'Isle, (3) Shot Boii & (8) Twilight Glory

Leg 6: (2) Dominic's Fault & (9) Star Of Affinity

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Tix Picks, Saturday 07/12/24

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Saturday's racing comes from Aintree, Chepstow, Navan, Sandown, Wetherby & Wolverhampton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £100,000 placepot guarantee at Sandown as well as a £75k pot at Aintree...

However, I'm writing this on Friday evening, because I'm out of the house for the day by 7am on Saturday. And as all the UK NH tracks are holding inspections after I'll have gone, I'm taking a safety first approach with a look at the first six races on Wolverhampton's tapeta track instead, starting with...

Leg 1 @ 4.30...(1) Echo Of Glory is a half-brother to Hodd's Girl who won seven times between 5f and 7f and although he has failed to make the frame in his two starts to date, the penny did seem to be dropping last time out. (2) The Voominator is probably wanting to go further in time, being a half-brother to Baba Boom, won three times at 1m 3f and 1m 4f, but he has shown some signs of ability in two defeats and should come on for having had a recent run. Well-held sixth in both his runs and needs to find plenty of progress

(4) Sundiata Keita looks the one to beat here after going down by just two necks when third at Newcastle a fortnight ago, which was much better than his debut and further progression will be enough here. (5) Sun Keeper ran well in snatches over this course and distance on debut almost three weeks ago and should improve for having had the experience. Yard & rider work well together here at this track and are in good recent form.

Of this quartet, I think I'll omit Echo Of Glory and Sundiata Keita would be my one to beat.

Leg 2 @ 5.00...I've already narrowed this down to the three that finished as runners-up on debut and I'd take them in this order if asked...

(4) Soldiers Star was a bit slow to get going at Newcastle but made enough headway to lead with 2f to run, but was unfortunately headed late on, going down by just a short head. (9) Sunlit Uplands was also beaten by a shorthead, narrowly failing to reel the winner in, after he too started slowly. There's not much between these two, but Soldiers Star has Tapeta experience.

Third in line for me is (5) Trouble Man who unlike the other two was quickly away at Southwell on debut but when pressed late on, couldn't repel Kildonan who went on to beat him by a neck.

All three are entitled to come on for those runs and in fairness, any of them could win/place here, so I'll take all three!

Leg 3 @ 5.30...(1) Edge Ofthe Unknown is a half-brother to Alpamayo who was a winner over 1m 4f and he's by Quality Road out of Nefertiti. he ran really well on debut at Newcastle over a mile on debut a month ago, finishing strongly to beat the fav by half a length going away and more is expected from him. (6) Jiff's Army has only raced over 7f so far, but has made the frame in three of four starts and was third here last time out on his A/W debut, so he should improve for that run, whilst breeding suggests the step up in trip should help.

(7) Kentucky River was only 5th of 7, beaten by four lengths on debut at Chelmsford a month ago, but he ran better than that sounds. I don't think he got the best of rides and ended up cramped for room on more than one occasion and had to switch out late on. A clearer passage here gets him in the mix, whilst (8) Perfect Life was much better than his SP of 12/1 when finishing third of twelve on debut at Southwell in late October racing against more experienced runners. Bulletin finished second that day and he has since stepped up in class to finish third here over 1m½f.

I've got Edge Ofthe Unknown to beat Jiff's Army here and I think I prefer Perfect Life to Kentucky River for third.

Leg 4 @ 6.00...(1) Three Dons has made the frame in all but one of his last eleven starts, winning seven times, but all his best form comes on turf and hasn't raced on the A/W since April. He has yet to win on the A/W after 24 attempts and would need to transfer some of his recent form over. to succeed here. (5) Skye Breeze on the other hand, has won four of nine on the tapeta and made the frame in two of the five defeats. The only potential fly in his ointment is the fact that he hasn't raced for almost seven months.

(8) No Surrender has been in action of late, though and although he has yet to win on the A/W, has made the frame in four of his eight attempts, including most recently at Lingfield when second of nine, beaten by just a head. Elladonna was third that day and she has since stepped up two classes to finish as a runner-up beaten by just a neck on Wednesday.

(11) Something likes to lead and had two made all victories over this trip at Newcastle inside three days in October and his last five A/W results now read 21162 having been a runner-up here over course and distance on his last run at 14/1, beaten only by the 9/4 fav. Another who likes this track/trip is (12) Optician who has 4 wins and 4 places from 11 on the A/W. he has 4 wins and 2 places here from 8 at Wolverhampton including 4 wins and a place from 7 over course and distance and arrives here off the back of a runner-up finish over 1m6f on this track.

An interesting-looking contest, but I can't take all of them, so I'd omit Three Dons on A/W form alone and I'll take Optician over Sky Breeze as the backup to Something and No Surrender, as Skye Breeze might need the run.

Leg 5 @ 6.30...I suspect that the top half of the card is where the money wil go for this one, starting with top-weight (1) Asgard's Captain. he's not in the kind of form that saw him finish 131152111 from June 2023 to late March of this year, but raced here after 20 weeks rest recently and showed some promise in 1.5 length defeat over this course and distance. he has been eased a pound by the assessor and should come on for having had a run. (2) Lerwick made a good impression on his A/W debut, when second of twelve over a mile at Southwell last time out going down by just half a length. he has won over 1m and 1m½f on turf and should go well again here.

(3) Arcadian Nights has made the frame in 10 of 25 on the A/W, winning seven times, including three over this course and distance. He had been out of sorts since the last of his C&D wins back in February, possibly as a result of running of marks in the 80's, but showed signs of life when a C&D runner-up, beaten by three quarters of a length last time out off 77. A 3lb rise makes this tough again, but he should at least be involved, as could (5) Titian who was a winner at Ripon by a head in May off today's mark and comes here off the back of a creditable fourth of ten beaten by just over two lengths at Newcastle last month.

All four have a great chance of making the frame, but Titian is the one I'll leave off my tickets and for those looking for a winner, Asgard's Captain is the one for me.

Leg 6 @ 7.00...It's a fairly poor looking race for a Class 4 that acts as our finale, but I've compiled a short list of four headed by top weight and my likely winner (1) Alzahir who drops back down from Class 2 having been beaten by just three lengths here over course and distance last time out. He had a win and a runner-up finish in his previous two starts before that Class 2 outing and if running like he did at Newcastle a month ago, could be hard to beat.

(3) Chalk Mountain clocked up an A/W hat-trick in September/October, which unfortunately moved his mark from a workable 68 to a difficult 82. That said, he was a 1.5 length runner-up over this trip at Southwell off this mark five weeks ago and drops in class here. (4) Admiral D hasn't won for 13 months now, losing ten on the spin, but on his day can be a useful E/W or placepot pick, having been a Class 3 runner-up twice in that sequence of defeats and although seventh of fifteen last time out, was only beaten by 2.5 lengths and drops two classes here.

(7) He's A Gentleman completes the quartet and of his 3 wins and 5 places from 18 on the A/W, he has 2 wins and 3 places from 9 here at Wolverhampton and has won over course and distance. He's now down to his last winning mark of 77 and might have a say in the proceedings if things fall his way.

All things considered, He's A Gentleman is probably the weakest of the four, so he's the one to miss out.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (4) Sundiata Keita, (5) Sun Keeper & (2) The Voominator

Leg 2: (4) Soldiers Star, (9) Sunlit Uplands & (5) Trouble Man

Leg 3: (1) Edge Ofthe Unknown, (6) Jiff's Army & (8) Perfect Life

Leg 4: (11) Something, (8) No Surrender & (12) Optician

Leg 5: (1) Asgard's Captain, (2) Lerwick & (3) Arcadian Nights

Leg 6: (1) Alzahir, (3) Chalk Mountain & (4) Admiral D

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Tix Picks, Friday 06/12/24

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Friday's racing comes from Dundalk, Exeter, Newcastle, Sandown & Sedgefield.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Sandown...

There are  some quality albeit small fields and a big pot at Sandown, so let's head there for six races on good to soft/soft ground, beginning with...

Leg 1 @ 12.48...(2) City Of London is a half-brother to Grade 2 winner Nemean Lion and was beaten by less than two lengths on debut as a runner-up behind odds-on My Noble Lord at Chepstow in October, more to come.

(4) Hot Fuss was useful on the Flat being considered to contest a couple of Listed races last year and ended his time in that code with finishes of 2332 this autumn before a promising hurdles debut at Wincanton almost six weeks ago. He was unlucky to bump into the 1/2 fav East India Dock that day, but did beat the rest of the field. The winner has since won a Grade 2 by 18 lengths at Cheltenham.

(7) Small Fry was 121122 on his last six runs on the AW/Flat, winning over trips as far as 1m6½f and his record on soft or worse ground reads 3122 so he shouldn't lack for stamina, but was being at very short odds on hurdling debut when third of eight at Fontwell last month and will ned to improve.

I'd have them in order as 4, 7, 2 but I'm going to take all three anyway.

Leg 2 @ 1.23...Just five go to post for this one too and I find it hard to look beyond last year's winner (1) Mount Tempest. He went on to win a Class 2 handicap after this race last year and was a decent-enough fourth of fifteen at Bangor recently despite coming off a seven month absence.

I'd be all in with this one, but I will take a couple of longer priced horses as backup and the value seems to lie with (2) Mint Gold and possibly (6) Calgary Tiger.

Mint Gold's record last season read 1F22 in a light campaign and he's already had a run this season, ending a 176-day break by finishing third at Carlisle without ever really being pushed, whilst Calgary Tiger gets weight all round and comes here off the back of a really good effort at Aintree four weeks ago when third of eight at a big price. This pair will probably be outliers in the market, but this kind of horse pushes the dividend up if they place!

Leg 3 @ 1.58...This looked like a two-horse race to me between (3) Bill Joyce and (4) Kingston Pride. Bill Joyce won his sole PTP race and his first two bumpers before being well beaten in the Champion Bumper at this year's Cheltenham Festival. He then didn't race for eight months but came back to win nicely over today's trip at Carlisle on hurdles debut at the start of November.

Kingston Pride was a runner-up beaten by 1.5 lengths in a Class 2, A/W bumper at Lingfield back in January, but scored on turf debut landing a bumper at Exeter in April prior to a 211-day break. His return to action at Uttoxeter three weeks ago saw him win very comfortably over this trip on his first crack at hurdles.

I expect the main challenges to come from (1) Admiral Stewart and/or (6) Quebecois. The former is a former PTP winner, who made all to win over 2m at Ffos Las 16 days ago and should relish the step up in trip, whilst the latter was a soft ground hurdle winner at Chepstow at the end of October when running for the first time in over seven months and his yard (Paul Nicholls) won this race in 2019 and 2022.

Admiral Stewart edges it for me for third here.

Leg 4 @ 2.33...I've lost the withdrawn Riskintheground from my overnight shortlist, leaving me with three that I'd be happy with. With regards to finding a winner, I'm struggling to see past (3) Resplendent Grey who was a decent hurdler winning on soft ground at Uttoxeter in May, before a chase debut at the same venue five months later saw him win again. He backed up that first chase effort with a staying-on second in a Listed chase at Cheltenham last month going down by just half a length to Hyland who is now 3 from 4 over fences.

Of the rest, the ones I think that might fare best would be (1) Cadell and/or (2) Handstands. Cadell won very cosily over this trip at Wetherby finishing 15 lengths clear. This is an obviously much tougher assignment and I suspect the market will show this tougher but his yard go well here and this one could easily outrun his odds.

Handstands, however, has yet to complete a race over fences, having fallen on his debut at Wincanton four weeks ago. The context of this is that despite eight months off track, his yard deemed him good enough to tackle a Grade 2 chase first up and he actually went really well until a mistake three out saw him fall when in a great position. A similar effort in a clear round puts him right in the mix today and he already has top level success under his belt from landing a Listed hurdle at Huntingdon in February.

Leg 5 @ 3.03...Things go from bad to worse for me here, as I've lost two of my top three from this one with Beachcomber and Tea Clipper now not running, leaving LTO winner (6) Jupiter Allen as my number 1 pick here. He made the frame in four of eight over hurdles and won on heavy ground at Exeter back in March. He returned to Exeter in October for a first crack at their fences and despite a 166-day absence ran well enough to win at this trip/class.

The main challenger is probably going to be (8) Hoe Joe Smoke whilst (3) Jupiter Du Gite could offer some value as an alternative.

Hoe Joe Smoke is yet to win after six attempts, but did make the frame in four of five over hurdles and when making a chase debut at Uttoxeter in October was a very promising runner-up to Resplendent Grey (who runs at 2.33) even though he hadn't been seen for over ten months. He should come on for the run and he has gone well at this trip.

Jupiter Du Gite is a confirmed front-runner who'll look to string the field out here in the hope of holding on to some prize money. He has finished 2142 over fences this year including a win on heavy ground and that stamina might be needed as he goes beyond 2m4f for the first time, a fact probably recognised by the market.

Leg 6 @ 3.35...I've lost Cavern Club from my overnight shortlist, but my 1-2 are still in place in the form of (2) I Wish You and (5) Fasol.

I Wish You has yet to finish outside the first two home, winning one of five starts and a similar top two finish will suffice for me here today. All five runs have been on soft or heavy ground so underfoot conditions are no issue and he battled well to win at Carlisle last time out in his first run for six months, standing him in good stead for his handicap debut.

Fasol's record isn't anywhere near as good, but I just thought that he was 'best of the rest'. His record reads 4244, which signifies unfulfilled potential to me as in he goes well enough but doesn't quite get home. His best run to date came over 2m5f at Kempton, so he has stamina and he might well need it here, having never raced on soft ground before.

After these two, I'm probably looking at the likes of (4) Authentic Legacy to fill the void created by Cavern Club. Authentic Legacy has shown some promise so far, but remains a maiden after 2 bumpers and 3 hurdle races, although he has been in the frame in all three over hurdles, finishing as runner-up in each, going down by just a length and a quarter last time out. He was headed before the last at Fontwell almost three weeks ago, despite being sent off at 5/6 and the drop back in trip should help him here, as his yard look for a fifth win in this race over the past ten years.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (4) Hot Fuss, (7) Small Fry & (2) City Of London

Leg 2: (1) Mount Tempest, (2) Mint Gold & (6) Calgary Tiger

Leg 3: (4) Kingston Pride, (3) Bill Joyce & (1) Admiral Stewart

Leg 4: (3) Resplendent Grey, (1) Cadell & (2) Handstands

Leg 5: (6) Jupiter Allen, (8) Hoe Joe Smoke & (3) Jupiter Du Gite

Leg 6: (2) I Wish You, (5) Fasol & (4) Authentic Legacy

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...