Tag Archive for: Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Thursday 10/08/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.50 Yarmouth
  • 4.00 Brighton
  • 4.45 Nottingham
  • 6.15 Sandown
  • 7.00 Chepstow
  • 8.05 Sligo

...the best of which (on paper) would appear to be race 11 of the Racing League aka the 7.00 Chepstow, an 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on soft ground...

Gordon Grey is a four-race maiden, but came close to getting off the mark on his handicap debut (2nd crack today) last time out and Feel The Need has failed to win any of his last eight starts after scoring on just his second outing. The other six runners here have at least one win from their last five efforts with Totnes, Miss Dolly Rocker (hcp debut here) and bottom weight I Still Have Faith all winning last time out; the latter actually comes here on a hat-trick whilst Totnes is 3 from 7.

She's Hot is the only runner to have raced at Class 3 last time around, as Shahbaz, Totnes, Feel The Need and Old Smoke are all up from Class 4, whilst Gordon Greym Miss Dolly Rocker And I Still Have Faith are up two classes.

It's a handicap debut for Miss Dolly Rocker and a 2nd handicap run for Gordon Grey, of course, whilst Feel The Need wears a hood for the first time. None of these have been away from the track for much more than a month, so we should have no rustiness, She's Hot is turned back out the quickest, but even she will have had nine days rest.

None of the field have won (or even ran) here at Chepstow before, but Totnes, Miss Dolly Rocker and I Still Have Faith have all won over today's trip, even if Totnes did it on the A/W.

Sadly, our free feature, Instant Expert, doesn't have much relevant data, but this is what we do have under expected conditions...

None of the field have won at this grade before, so the rise in class most face might not be too relevant here and I think we might get a better picture if we look at their records in a lower grade...

...where Totnes looks strong albeit on A/W form. Shahbaz hasn't won any of his last four, but remains 5lbs above his last winning mark, although he was a runner-up only beaten by a neck off this mark in his last race. Mind you, he won't have Frankie Dettori driving him home today, which makes life tougher. Gordon Grey, however, is eased 3lbs despite only going down late by three quarters of a length a fortnight ago, which might give him a chance here. He's drawn relatively low in stall 3, but it would appear that stall 5 and higher is the place to be...

...with those races above tending to be a bit of a struggle for hold-up horses...

...and that doesn't bode well for a few of this field, especially Feel The Need and I Still Have Faith, if their past four outings are anything to go by...

...making our pace/draw heat map looks like this...

Summary

On form, it was Totnes, Miss Dolly Rocker, and I Still Have Faith who appeared to be the pick of the pack, Totnes, I Still Have Faith and possibly She's Hot were the takeaways from Instant Expert. I Still Have Faith, Miss Dolly Rocker, Shahbaz and She's Hot seem best favoured by the draw, whilst the pace/draw heat map looked like better news for Miss Dolly Rocker, Shahbaz and She's Hot.

As is often the case with the totting-up procedure, you get the same names mentioned over and over and five horses are listed above, so I'm going to rule Feel The Need, Gordon Grey and Old Smoke out of the running. The issue now is that any of the five remaining could go on and win, but there's no stand-out candidate.

The 4pm market had my five as follows...

...and the most obvious bet for me would be to back She's Hot on an Each Way basis. She's back up in trip (was a runner-up the last time she tackled 1m2f) and she's not stepping up in class.

Shahbaz looks short at 3/1 with only 1 win in 10, but a 60% place strike rate, he's more of a placer than a winner for me. Totnes is 3 from 4 on the A/W, but his Flat form reads 8433 (placed just once).

I Still Have Faith could be the one to back as the winner, he's in great form, gets weight all round, has a good jockey on board, is drawn higher enough, but might need to press on sooner, whilst Miss Dolly Rocker might also surprise one or two here. She has been more consistent than spectacular, but won last time out on soft ground, gets the trip and is drawn in stall 6. She might get an easy lead and if that happens, she's not a bad option for the places, if I could get better than 13/2.

Shortly after publishing the post, 9/1 became available about Miss Dolly Rocker, so a small E/W bet is an option.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 09/08/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.20 Pontefract
  • 3.30 Brighton
  • 3.50 Pontefract
  • 6.40 Sligo
  • 7.50 Yarmouth

...whilst my own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following...

...and the 'best' of those races above appears to be the stayers' handicap at Ponty, the 3.50 Pontefract. it's an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left handed 2m1 on good ground...

None of trhese even managed to make the frame last time out, which is a little disconcerting, but all bar Ashington have won at least once in their last five starts and he does at least drop down a level here, whilst the bottom two on the card, Giovanni Change and Ironopolis are both down two classes.

Ironopolis is also the sole 3yo in the field, so he'll get a 13lb weight allowance here, but he'll probably need it as I see him as the weakest runner in the field. We've no new equipment being used and no yard movements and all of them have raced in the last 11-45 days, so we should have no fitness issues either.

Only Yorkindness and Flint Hill have won over this trip before and they've done it here at Pontefract, whilst Champagne City (2m2f), Carrigillihy (1m4f) and Giovanni Change (2m5½f) have also all won at this venue.

Instant Expert suggests that Champagne City should have conditions to suit, but that Carrigillihy is the track specialist...

...but his record at class 4 looks almost as poor as Flint Hill's. The latter also hasn't fared well on good ground with El Borracho also having issues winning on good.

The draw stats would initially tend to suggest that those drawn lowest have an advantage, but (i) it's a very small sample size, (ii) the data is skewed by stall 1 winning nearly a third of the races in the sample and (iii) I'm really not convinced the draw can make you lose an 8-runner race over 2m1f, but here's the data anyway...

...and I suspect that pace might have a bigger bearing on the result. That small sample of races above have been won as follows...

...suggesting those racing further forward have just put targets on their backs and that the hold-up horses have been left with too much to do, so it we could get a runner with an average pace score around the 2.00 mark, we might have something, so so let's check the field's most recent outings...

...which doesn't really clarify the issue too much, but if we ignore Carrigillihy's last effort where he led and faded badly, he does tend to run to that 2.00/mid-division position.

Summary

Carrigillihy's record around this track is excellent and he's probably got the ideal pace profile to win here again, but he's a 5/2 favourite who has a career record of 1 win and 1 place from 14 attempts at Class 4. He's also 0 from 7 beyond his preferred trip of 1m4f (where he is 5 from 17) and is up in trip here.

I suspect he's going to be there or thereabouts and could well win, but 5/2 is way too short for my liking. I did actually like El Borracho initially, but he's likely to do too much too soon and whilst he could be good for a place, 5/1 isn't E/W territory for me. The one who might well outrun his odds and make the frame as an E/W possible is the 11/1 outsider Champagne City. Conditions look ideal for him and he's only 2lbs higher than when winning here over 2m2f back in April.

I won't be digging too deeply into my pockets for the bet, but I'd hope for a decent effort from him.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 08/08/23

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with one of more obvious immediate interest than the other, whilst as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 4.35 Catterick
  • 6.00 Roscommon
  • 6.30 Roscommon
  • 8.20 Chelmsford

...from which I think I'll check out Temper trap in the 6.10 Ripon, as Sea Appeal looks mighty short in a 4-runner contest! The 6.10 Ripon is a 7-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ flat handicap for apprentice jockeys over a right-handed mile on soft ground...

Featured horse Temper Trap is second widest drawn and top weight of the eight runners and after winning this race last year is the only course and distance winner in the field. None of the others have won at Ripon before, but all bar Extinction (2nd run in a handicap today), Antagonize and Jewel of Kabeir have all won over today's trip elsewhere.

How Bizarre and fast finisher Chagall both come here off the back of wins, whilst Temper Trap comes in search of a quick-fire hat-trick inside 12 days, for which he's penalised 5lbs. Of the other four runners, only Bay Dream Beleiver has win in his most recent form line.

None of the field should be too rusty, as Grangeclare View's 8-week break is the longest any of these have been off the track since their last run and Temper Trap won at Hamilton as recently as Saturday evening! Extinction, Grangeclare View and Bay Dream believer all drop a class, which is useful especially for the latter who was a runner-up last time out.

It's an apprentice jockeys' race with five of the riders using claims of 3 to 10lbs, but both Temper Trap and Chagall will be ridden by non-claimers with a bit more experience, which might be vital here.

Temper Trap comes from The Shortlist, so you'd be well within your rights to expect him to score well on Instant Expert...

...and he certainly doesn't disappoint. He looks head and shoulders above the field here, despite a 5lb rise in weight. Mind you Chagall is some 10lbs higher than his last flat win almost three years ago, although he is only 3lbs higher than when winning on the A/W at Lingfield three weeks ago and he's got good place stats, especially on soft ground as does How Bizarre whose place form looks solid if unspectacular, although it's Antagonize's place numbers that look second best to Temper Trap.

One of the form horses, Bay Dream Believer has bagged stall number 1, whilst our featured runner, Temper Trap is out in box 7 and if previous similar past contests are anything to go by, then the former might have an advantage over the latter...

...as the lower half of the draw seems to have much better results. The above races tended to be won by those runners racing most prominently with prominent/leaders winning 50% more often than mid-div/hold-up types, which based on the field's most recent efforts doesn't look such good news for Bay Dream Believer...

Summary

It's not a great race, really, but it's difficult to look beyond Temper Trap. The problem is, that he looks an obvious pick and the bookies are onto it and he's 7/4 across the board. I think he wins this again here, but I'm not going gung-ho at those odds, I thought he might have been a bit longer.

Chagall (9/2), Bay Dream Believer (5/1) and How Bizarre (11/2) all come here in good nick, but fall down in different areas and I wouldn't see any of them beating the fav. All three are too short for an E/W punt, but you can get 17/2 about Antagonize and if he runs like he did last time out, then he could well make the frame if the form horses don't fire.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 07/08/23

/in /by

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.33 Cork
  • 4.53 Cork
  • 5.20 Ayr
  • 5.28 Cork
  • 7.30 Windsor

Of the two UK races above, I suspect the last race on the list will depend more on pace than the other and with tricky underfoot conditions expected, the 7.30 Windsor might well be an interesting contest. It's a 15-runner (more than I'm generally comfortable with!), Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over straight 6f on heavy ground...

As there are far more runners than I want to deal with, I'm going to be quite brutal and quickly eliminate runners, based initially on PACE and the INSTANT EXPERT data, as this is how heavy groiund races at Windsor at 5f to 7f have panned out...

.with our field's last four runs looking like this...

Their soft to heavy ground handicap stats look like this...

And whilst I'm aware of the obvious risk of overlooking a possible bet, I'm not even considering those with two or more hold-up runs in their last four outings and I'm removing Cuban Breeze for his soft/heavy ground form, making my new racecard look like this...

Lequinto, Indian Creak and Count Otto all won last time out with the latter coming here on a hat-trick, but Antiphon and Crazy Luck are both on losing runs of 6 and 9 races.

All bar Lethal Nymph and Sterling Knight are stepping up in class with Lequinto, Count Otto and The Cruising Lord up two classes with Lequinto wearing first time blinkers.

All nine have won over today's trip before with all bar Lethal Nymph, Crazy Luck and The Cruising Lord having scored over course and distance. We've no 3 yr olds here, so no age-related weight allowances to consider and all of them have raced in the last six weeks with Sterling Knight having rested for just two days and Crazy Luck for six.

Instant Expert says...

...that Count Otto might well struggle at Class 2 and hasn't fared particularly well here at Windsor and that he and The Cruising Lord look the weakest on the above stats. And as it's my aim to quickly decimate the field into a small number of possible E/W bets, I'm removing both from my calculations now. This still leaves me with seven runners strung across the track in stalls, 1, 3, 4, 7, 11, 13, 14 and over a straight 6f, you'd be forgiven for think that there shouldn't be much advantage to the draw, but it's not quite the case here as those drawn 6 and above do seem to have better results...

...which isn't particularly good news for Lequinto, Lethal Nymph and/or Antiphon, but their fate might not yet be sealed, they might still be in with a shout as we revisit the pace data from those 5-6f Windsor races used for the draw stats...

...where we're looking for those with the highest average pace score from this bunch...

Anything below 2.75 probably isn't going to be advanced enough here, especially when I've already discarded this trio...

...so it's goodbye to Lequinto and Crazy Luck here.

Summary

I have very quickly reduced the field to four runners that I may (or may not) now fancy to back win or E/W for the four places available from the bookies, of whom only Hills had prices when I wrote the piece.

Antiphon is possibly better than the 16/1 ticket might suggest. he won here over 5f on soft ground in May off today's mark and was a runner-up over course and distance six weeks ago off the same mark and now has a 7lb claimer on board. Could well make the frame here.

Lethal Nymph was a runner-up over course and distance here last time out and has finished 112 in his last three runs at Class 2. he's unproven/untested on anything softer than good to soft, so there's an elemEnt of trust involved if you want to back him at 17/2. If he takes to the heavy ground, he'd be a good E/W chance too, but I think I'd want a bigger price on a horse trying these conditions for a first time.

Indian Creak won here over course and distance on soft ground back in May and won well at Epsom last time out, but is only raised a pound for that run. He made the frame on heavy ground at Thirsk in the race follOwing his C&D success and could go well again here. I do like his chances of a top four finish and whilst not exactly generous, 17/2 isn't a bad price.

Haymaker is probably the one I like best of the four. A central draw gives him the scope to go with whoever sets the pace, the underfoot conditions shouldn't bother him and he's got a top jockey on board. He's the current 11/2 favourite which looks a little mean/short, but if pushed to pick a winner, he'd be the one. Ideally he'd drift from that price and I could back him E/W.

Racing Insights, Saturday 05/08/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

...plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 2.05 Newmarket
  • 3.25 Thirsk
  • 3.35 Goodwood
  • 5.55 Galway
  • 6.45 Lingfield
  • 7.45 Lingfield

Once again the Goodwood contest has far too many (28!) runners for my liking, so let's head to North Yorkshire for the 3.25 Thirsk, a 10-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 7f on soft ground...

No LTO winners on show today and only top-weight Woven made the frame last time around. He did, however, win four starts ago and only The Turpinator, maywake and bottom weight Snash come here on a run of seven (or more!) consecutive defeats.

Snash is trained by Tim Easterby who has won this race for the last two years with last year's winner, Danzan also here to defend the crown under last year's winning jockey, which is interesting on Trainer/Jockey combo day!

Snash hasn't won for over a year now (9 races) and despite a 2 from 22 record on turf (yet 2/2 on AW), he's up in class here, whilst four of the top five in the weights (Heat of the Moment, Autumn Festival, Harswell Duke and The Turpinator) all drop down a grade.

Harswell Duke looks like he's making a debut for a new yard, but that's not the case, it's just a licence name modification from his last run 105 days ago, making him the one most likely to be a bit rusty. Heat of the Moment has been off for twelve weeks, but the remainder have all raced in the last two to five weeks or so.

Broken Spear and Snash are both former Thirsk winners over 5f and 6f respectively, whilst Snash's stablemate Danzan is the only course and distance winner, having won this race last year and also just over six weeks ago. Elsewhere, all bar Heat of the Moment, Harswell Duke and Snash have managed at least one win at this trip.

Instant Expert says that all bar Snash have had a run on soft ground already and that five of them have won on soft, whilst there are five (not all the same runners) previous Class 3 Flat winners on show. A few clicks of the mouse will also reveal a pair of former Class 2 successes for Autumn Festival and Harswell Duke...

My immediate concerns would be about Woven (class/trip), Broken Spear (going/class/trip), last year's winner Danzan (going/class/trip), Maywake (trip) and Snash (trip).  Some of this datat is a little surprising to me, as I had it in my head that Woven and Maywake were better than the above graphic might suggest.

None of the field are any more than 5lbs higher than their last winning mark, but The Turpinator and Snash are 2lbs and 11lbs lower than their last flat win. Autumn Festival looks well set on both going and distance and we know Danzan's best efforts have been over course and distance, but before I rule any of these in or out, I want to check the place stats...

...which pretty much backs up my thoughts that Woven and Maywake weren't as bad as they first looked, but without any green at all on the pace stats, it's time for me to cut Heat of the Moment, Broken Spear and Snash from the reckoning, leaving me with seven to consider as I turn my attention to the draw on this left-handed, soft ground 7f. Our Draw Analyser says that at this trip and a mile, the higher drawn horses have fared best...

...especially those drawn is stalls 7 or higher...

...which could bode well for Danzan, Razeyna and Woven in 7, 8 & 9. Those races above have been won most often by horses setting the pace and the further back a horse has run, the lower the success rate, although only hold-up horses have struggled to make the frame...

This represents a complete turn about for the highly-drawn Razeyna and Woven, as they're not usually ones to force the pace of a race, based on recent evidence...

...but it's another tick for last year's winner Danzan, despite him still being rated some 7lbs higher than last year. I'm not sure what happened to Maywake on his last outing, as his usual average pace score is around the 3.50 mark and I think he'll want to be close to the front here.

Summary

I don't think Danzan is the horse he was last year, but the data above keeps pushing him my way. I think the likes of Maywake, Woven and Razeyna are better horses than Danzan and I'm sure that at least one will beat last year's winner, but at 16/1 (only Hills were open at 4.30pm) Danzan might not be the worst E/W bet I've placed this week! I know we're making a leap of faith, but horse, trainer and jockey all go well here, so who knows?

As for a winner, I do like Maywake, Woven and Razeyna, but I fear the latter pair are going to get undone by their hold-up approach, despite having great draws, so it's Maywake at 9/2 for me, whilst it's not beyond the realms of possibilities that Autumn Festival might try to win this from the front and if I can get 10's or better, that could also be an E/W option.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 04/08/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded just two qualifiers...

...but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.00 Goodwood
  • 4.45 Goodwood
  • 5.10 Bangor
  • 6.20 Newmarket
  • 7.40 Galway
  • 8.05 Bath

Rhoscolyn from the H4C report goes in the first of our free races, but 20-runner affairs don't float my boat, so I'll swerve that one in favour of taking a look at a competitive looking sprint of reasonable quality up in Scotland, as I focus on the 8.20 Musselburgh, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good ground...

As ever, I approach a race thinking of the words my old maths teacher used to tell me when faced with a tricky problem ie look at the information you've already got in front of you. To do this I work my way across the racecard from left to right, ignoring the draw (for now!), starting with...

FORM : Never Dark won last time out and has two wins and a runner-up finish from his last four outings. Only Spoofing won this race last years and was a runner-up when last seen, but along with Looking For Lynda and Resilience, this trio are winless in at least six races (12, 7 and 10 runs to be precise)

CLASS : Only Spoofing and Jordan Electrics are the only two not moving in class today, as the top three in the weights (Ready Freddie Go, Look Out Louis & Looking For Lynda) all drop in from Class 2, whilst three others (Runninwild, Princess Karine and bottom weight Resilience) all step up from Class 4. LTO winner Never Dark actually raced at Class 5 and is up two grades here.

ANYTHING NEW/DIFFERENT : Looking For Lynda wears cheekpieces for the first time and Look Out Louis makes a second appearance sind having wind surgery.

COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : All nine have won at least once over today's trip with only Look Out Louis, Runninwild and Resilience yet to score over this course and distance. Mind you, only Resilience of the three has been here before, making the frame once in two defeats.

LAST RAN : The majority of the field should have no fitness issues with half a dozen of them having raced in the last 18-35 days, but Resilience is turned back out just six days after a really poor run in a lower grade at York. Runninwild has had a nine-week break since struggling at Catterick, whilst our sole LTO winner never Dark not only steps up two classes, he also returns from 7 months off and hasn't raced on turf for almost ten months!

WEIGHT : The handicapper rates top weight Ready Freddie Go as being some 19lbs better than bottom weight Resiliance and our sole 3 year old, Looking For Lynda, gets a 3lb weight allowance. Only Spoofing is rated 7lbs lower than when winning this race last year under today's jockey.

My next port of call is a check of the runners' past performances under similar conditions to this contest and I do this via INSTANT EXPERT...

And there's plenty to go at here too, so let's start with what I don't like! Never Dark looks weak at going/trip and is only 1 from 16 over 5f on ground with the word 'good' in the description. Only Spoofing has a poor record at Class 3, but did win this race last year and has won at a higher grade than this and I'm not a fan of Jordan Electrics' numbers here at Musselburgh or on good ground.

Runninwild will like the ground, but his best form is over 6f. Only Spoofing has seven wins on good ground and is 2 from 3 on this track and is 7lbs lower than last year's win. Ready Freddie Go's numbers aren't spectacular, but a line of amber shows potential and consistency.

I ignore the DRAW when going through the racecard, as I prefer to look at it at this point and previous races here over this trip haven't really shown much of a draw bias, according to our DRAW ANALYSER...

That's not a huge surprise, though, as there really shouldn't be any particular advantage in a straight dash, where the emphasis is surely on speed and tactics and if we then check our PACE ANALYSER to see how those races above have been won, again there are few surprises to be had...

So, we're more concerned about getting a prominent runner or a leader for place purposes with those setting the pace having the best win record. And we go about this by looking at how our runners have approached their most recent contests and if they run how they have done in these races...

...you'd much rather be with Ready Freddie Go and Only Spoofing above the likes of Jordan Electrics, who looks out of his depth here anyway.

Summary

Ready Freddie Go was third in this grade three starts ago, then won at Class 4 before another third placed finsh last time out. That was at Class 2 and he's down in class off the same mark today. His Instant Expert numbers showed that he'll like the conditions here and he's got the right pace profile for this contest, so I like his chances here.

He's drawn in 8 of 9 with only Only Spoofing outside of him. Only Spoofing won this race last year, of course and is 7lbs better off this time around, he has a similar pace profile to Ready Freddie Go, loves good ground and has a good record on this track. He looked ready to strike again when just a nose behind an 11/10 favourite at Bellewstown last time out and must enter calculations here.

And for me, the race is between this pair and I've very little between them to be honest. As 5/1 third fav here, Ready Freddie Go might offer a little more value with Only Spoofing being the 9/4 favourite (prices from Hils at 4.45pm : the only book open)

As for a placer or E/W bet, there's not much jumping out at me on the prices quoted, but outsider Resilience might be better than his current 14/1 ticket. If he runs like he did at York last Saturday, you'd be burning your money, but he raced here four weeks ago over course and distance and was only headed late on, finishing in second, just half a length behind the 5/2 favourite who has since made the frame at both Class 3 and Class 2. You don't know what you're going to get from Resilience, but that's probably why he's 8th fav of 9!

Racing Insights, Thursday 03/08/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.45 Galway
  • 5.05 Galway
  • 6.10 Galway
  • 6.40 Newcastle
  • 8.15 Newcastle

As most of you, I don't really do Irish racing and those two Newcastle races aren't great, but as I was flicking through the cards with the daily feature, Instant Expert, in mind, I spotted this...

Now, I don't know what kind of quality we're dealing with here, but it looks competitive with plenty of runners having fared well under expected conditions, so I'm going to be looking at the 5.25 Stratford, a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 3m2½f on good/good to soft ground...

Only Mr Yeats has failed to win any of his last three outings, but he has made the frame in all three. Scarpia won last time out and Gentleman Valley has won each of his last three. In fact I backed him via this column last time out!

He's up 6lbs now to a career-high mark of 123, but he hasn't stepped up in class, unlike the bottom three on the card, Hoganville, Mr Yeats and Hunting Percival, who all step up from Class 4 despite not winning last time out. The latter of that trio is a bit hit and miss wit a win and two runner-up finishes from his last six runs, but was pulled up in the other three, so he's clearly unreliable.

He has, however, won here at Stratford in the past (in a 2m7f hurdle), whilst Isthebaropen (great question!) won a 2m6½f hurdle here too. Hoganville and Mr Yeats have both won at a similar trip to this one, whilst top weight Shantou Express is the only previous course and distance winner, achieved two starts ago and he has also scored here over 3m3f, so track/trip shouldn't pose any issues.

Isthebaropen could be excused for needing a run after a break of over nine months since being pulled up at Aintree and it's ten months since he last completed a race and I'd be reluctant to back him until I'd seen him have a run. The others have all raced in the last seven weeks with Hunting Percival sighted as recently as Monday when pulled up over fences at Newton Abbot. he did, however, win her over 2m7f on his last effort over hurdles a month ago and this is reflected in that Instant Expert graphic I opened with, that I've reproduced below...

The entire filed are 3-6lbs higher than their last winning marks, so none gain any real advantage there and the above data doesn't really cause me any grounds for concern, although Mr Yeats and Scarpia do look a little weaker than the others on that evidence, but there's not a great deal in it. A trip in excess of three and a quarter miles on ground softer than good might take some getting though and there does appear to be a wide range of tactics employed by this field in recent outings...

If the above is anything to go by, then it could well be an early tussle for the lead between Shantou Express, Scarpia and Hoganville, whilst the returning Isthebaropen looks content to bide his time. The issue there, of course, is that he becomes too far off the pace and is too rusty after his lay-off to make up the ground on a track that hasn't been kind to hold-up types...

At this point, I think that's enough negatives about Isthebaropen and he now joins Hunting Percival in the discard list, leaving five in with a shout.

Summary

Realistically, any of the five I've got left in could go on and win this, but the way that Gentleman Valley won so easily at Worcester last time out makes me think he's still in front of the handicapper. He might well open up too short for me to back, but if I could get 5/2, I'd be pretty happy in such a competitive race. As for who completes the forecast, you really could make a case for any of the other four runners , so I'm going to refer back to our feature of the day, Instant Expert, to look at the place stats...

...and tentatively suggest Mr Yeats marginally ahead of Scarpia, who might well relish the step up in trip. Both Bet365 and SkyBet will pay three places when they open up, so fingers crossed that one of this latter pair are long enough for a small E/W bet.

PS Gentleman Valley was readily available at 5/2 just after 4pm when i took 8/1 E/W about Mr Yeats with bet365.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 02/08/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 4.55 Redcar
  • 6.40 Galway
  • 7.15 Galway
  • 7.27 Sandown
  • 8.12 Leicester

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following...

...and with two of the in-form yards above both having a runner in the same race from our daily free list, it makes sense to see how Balboa and Roost might get on against six other runners in the 7.27 Sandown, a Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a right-handed 1m6f on good to soft ground, The track is already softer in places and more rain is forecast for this group...

Kyle of Lochalsh and Alhambra Palace were both last time winners, whilst top-weight and sole female in the race Grand Providence seeks to complete a hat-trick of wins. Elsewhere Cavern Club and Enochdhu both won four starts ago, but Royal Deeside and our two featured runners, Roost and Balboa, are all five-race maidens.

Royal Deeside also runs for the second time in handicap company and Roost runs for the first time since being gelded during a 78-day absence : all his rivals have raced in the last month or so. Kyle of Lochalsh is the only class mover here, stepping up one level after getting off the mark at Newbury three weeks ago and bottom weight/featured horse Balboa makes a yard debut for Milton Harris almost three weeks after finishing 5th of 11 over course and distance on the last of his five (all unplaced) runs for Jamie Osborne.

The field have only won 8 of their combined 47 outings (17% SR) with no course nor distance wins, but they have made the frame on 15 (31.9%) of their runs to date, so we might glean a little more from the place stats on Instant Expert than we do from a win perspective...

The field haven't raced in the wet too often, but both Alhambra Palace and Cavern Club have shown some ability to deal with good to soft ground, whilst Roost and Enochdhu probably won't mind if more rain does come. The latter, however, has yet to make the frame in five starts at Class 4, wheras Cavern Club has a win and two places from his five efforts. No course or distance winners, of course, but Kyle of Lochalsh did win over 1m5½f at Newbury last time out and if conditions make this a slog, then Grand Providence's win over 2m½f on her last start might well come in to play.

Cavern Club wouldn't be an obvious pick here, but his place stats are decent enough and he's drawn in stall 1 giving him the rail to help keep him straight. Somewhat surprisingly, albeit off a really small data sample, there's actually a hint of a draw bias at play here, with low draws (especially stalls 1 & 2) doing better than expected...

...although I do still think that a horse's chances of winning a race over 1m6f shouldn't really be decided by which of eight stalls he/she breaks from and that race tactics aka pace would be more of a determining factor and if I look back at that small sample of races above, it looks like those runners who race prominently just off the leader(s) would be the type of horse you'd want to be with...

...and based on the way this relatively inexperienced field have approached their races so far, I'd expect Enochdhu and Balboa to set the pace here wit the likes of Roost, Kyle of Lochalsh and Grand Providence being the stalking horses waiting to pick them off...

Summary

I suspect this race will run to form and that the three LTO winners will be the ones to focus on here. At 3.40pm on Tuesday, I'd had no odds available to discuss, but I'd imagine that Alhambra Palace might well go off quite short without offering too much value and that the one to side with could be Kyle of Lochalsh. He's drawn low, will race prominently, should get the trip and won well last time out. Hopefully I can get somewhere near the 5/1 mark about him when the markets open.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 01/08/23

/in /by

Sorry for the lack of a preview of Monday's racing, I was out all day Sunday with a plan to putting the piece up early on Monday morning. Sadly, United Utilities had other ideas and we'd no power here until after 1pm!

Thankfully, everything seems fine now, so we'll kick off the new month with a look at Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Presentandcounting and Kinross are of obvious interest, but Indication Spirit, Basford and Pride of America must also be worth a look at. I've shown you this graphic, because Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

We do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.00 Beverley
  • 4.00 Goodwood
  • 5.05 Beverley
  • 6.20 Perth
  • 8.20 Galway

When you've a runner scoring 15 on The Shortlist running in a race from the free list that happens to be a Class 1 affair, then it'd be rude of me not to look at the race in question, even if Kinross is likely to be a short-priced favourite in the 4.00 Goodwood, the 8-runner, Group 2 Lennox Stakes. The trip is a right-handed 7f on ground that is currently good to soft with softer patches in places and here's the line-up...

Holguin won last time out and Audience comes here on a hat-trick. Featured horse Kinross won this race in 2021 and his last six races have seen him land two wins and a runner-up at Gr2 plus a win and a place at Gr1, the only blot being a 5 length defeat at Ascot when 7th of 16 in the Gr1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes two starts ago, as he came off a 250+ day absence. Elsewhere Isaac Shelby is inexperienced but has won three of his five starts to date including success at Gr3 and Gr2.

If we look at the weights, the 3yr old Isaac Shelby would be best off based on Official Ratings, as he's rated a 114 horse and will carry 6lbs less than the 119-rated Kinross, but these two look most well in based on handicap marks with Pogo looking the worst treated here, carrying 6lbs more than Isaac Shelby despite being rated 3lbs worse.

All eight set to go to post have raced in the last 17-42 days, so we shouldn't have any fitness issues here and all bar Indestructible have won at least once over 7f, as his two wins have been over 6f and 1m. Only three of the field have raced at Goodwood before with both Marbaan and Kinross having won Gr2 events over course and distance. Pogo is the other to have raced here and although winless in four attempts, he has made the frame three times including twice at Gr2.

Instant Expert tells us that Audience has yet to run on good to soft or soft ground and that Holguin would prefer more rain to come. Kinross won't be too concerned if it dries out or gets a bit wetter and Al Suhail won't want any more rain....

You can quickly see why Kinross is at the top of The Shortlist and the likely favourite here, but the relatively unexposed Isaac Shelby looks well suited here too. Featured horse Kinross has the inside stall and a non-runner was drawn in stall 3, so Al Suhail is effectively drawn in 8 of 8 over a track/trip where horses drawn in stall 1 (Kinross) have won most often on good to soft/soft ground, but that generally speaking a more central draw has suited better...

...and this is backed up by the PRB3 data, which suggests a draw in the first five stalls might be more advantageous...

...but that being drawn higher wouldn't necessarily be a disaster, as the emphasis here seems to more about race tactics, as seen here...

...from which I'm going to say that those who can go hard early, should do that but if you're not a natural front-runner, then you're better off dropping in at the back for a late run for the line. The way this field has approached its most recent contests suggests that Audience and possibly Al Suhail will be setting the tempo...

...with featured runner and favourite Kinross the hold-up horse.

Summary

Kinross is the class horse here and has been running really well in Gr1 races, so this is a step down in quality for him. He's won this race before, Frankie's on board having won 4 times on the horse already, he tops the Instant Expert stats, has the 'plum draw' in stall 1 and his hold-up tactics should be spot on. All in all, I can't see Kinross getting beaten here. The question is this : do we back him at 11/8 or seek value elsewhere? That's entirely your call, I'm afraid, but I can see him going off much shorter, if that's any help to you.

Somewhat predictably, I also think that second favourite Isaac Shelby is the one likely to give Kinross the biggest challenge, but at 9/2, I won't be having an E/W bet. I think this one is already very good as a 3 yr old, but will certainly improve with age. If I am having an E/W bet, it would be the front-running Audience that would carry my money at 10/1. Although he is untested on this anything softer than good ground, he's in good form, this is his trip and he gets on really well with today's jockey. He might well be afforded a soft lead and if so, he could easily hang on for a place.

Racing Insights, Saturday 29/07/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.30 Gowran Park
  • 3.00 Ascot
  • 3.02 Gowran Park
  • 4.10 Newmarket
  • 7.15 Salisbury
  • 8.30 Windsor

I do like to try and 'marry up' our free feature with the daily race list, but the 3.00 Ascot featuring Star of Orion from the TJC Report is a 26-runner affair and I just don't get involved in such races, so I'm turning my attentions to the 4.10 Newmarket, a 10-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to soft ground...

Of the ten, only Coco Bear comes here after win and he has actually won his last three, but hasn't been seen for eleven weeks, whilst all his rivals have raced in the past four weeks. Bernardo O'Reilly was in action on Thursday of this week, whilst Chairmanoftheboard ran as recently as last Friday, when a runner-up at a higher grade, making him the only runner, other than Coco Bear, to be placed last time around.

Chairmanoftheboard isn't the only one dropping in from Class 2, though, as the other two runners, Silver Samurai and Hierarchy, from the top three in the weights both make the same step down. Three (Tiger Crusade, Spring Bloom & bottom weight Sir Oliver) ran at this level last time out, but Bernardo O'Reilly, Justcallmepete, Priscilla's Wish and the returning Coco Bear all step up from Class 4.

Spring Bloom is the only one yet to win at this trip, but only Chairmanoftheboard has won here at Newmarket, courtesy of a course and distance success just over three years ago and he has ditched his usual cheekpieces here but wears a visor for only the second time and the first since May 2019 some 31 races ago!

Instant Expert suggests that good to soft ground might not be the ideal metier for him from a win perspective, but he wouldn't want it any quicker than this and the same report shows how poor Spring Bloom's record is at this trip...

Spring Bloom has had thirteen attempts at winning over 6f on turf, which isn't very good at all, but he does have a 64% place strike rate on the Flat over his career and this is reflected in the place stats below...

Chairmanoftheboard's record at Class 3 is a little surprising, as he has made the frame in 8 of 17 runs at Class 2, so he's certainly not out of his depth here and aside from Bernardo O'Reilly not seeming to run well here, there aren't too many grounds for concern about those place records above.

Somewhat surprisingly, there does seem to be a bit of a bias towards those drawn lowest in previous similar contests...

...but over a straight 6f on what should be one of the best tracks in the country, I still think that any advantage wouldn't be that pronounced and that we should read more into how those races above have been won and our pace analyser says that half of those who lead go on to make the frame and that 1 in 5 leaders win with the general advice being to race as far forward as you can...

...which based on recent outings would tend to put the likes of Silver Samurai and Bernardo O'Reilly at a disadvantage...

...but Justcallmepete could relish the opportunity of a potential soft lead from a relatively low draw.

Summary

For me, Chairmanoftheboard and Coco Bear are the best two horses in the race with me preferring the former. He ran well last time out and now drops in class, whilst the latter is up in class and hasn't raced for eleven weeks, although he did win his last three races, all on soft ground. He actually won three starts ago after a six-month lay-off, so this recent break might not make any difference, but up in class mon a career-high mark might just stop Coco Bear from beating Chairmanoftheboard.

As for a placer or E/W bet, Spring Bloom caught the eye on Instant Expert but he does blow hot and cold, whilst front-runner Justcallmepete might prove hard to catch in a race with no other real pace.

No odds on this one at 3.30pm Friday, so I'll have to revisit this later.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 28/07/23

/in /by

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have still produced a couple of qualifiers...

...including Challet, whose record at York over the last couple of years reads 113337.

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.35 Thirsk
  • 3.00 Ascot
  • 4.55 Thirsk
  • 5.00 York
  • 5.22 Cork
  • 5.57 Cork

I'm not too enthused by either H4C race nor the free list, but with the recent poor weather affecting the going across the country, I think I'll look for a race where trip and going are at the end of the spectrum, so let's try the 4.45 Ascot, which is an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a straight 5f on soft ground, that should be better in places...

Glamorous Breeze and Cruise both won last time out and both are two from three, although the former fared better than the latter on their penultimate runs and she also drops in class here, as do Lil Guff, Cuban Breeze and Woolhampton, but bottom weight Sarah's Verse is up a level here. Cuban Breeze is winless for almost a year now, losing 17 on the bounce, but has made the frame in 5 of her last six.

There's nothing new/different to report on this field and all of them have had a run in the last month, with Cuban Breeze turned back out just a week after finishing as runner-up at Newmarket. She's the only one of this bunch to have already won here at Ascot, having scored over course and distance just over a year ago off a mark 3lbs lower than today. Only Origintrail, Woolhampton and Holy Fire have yet to win over this minimum distance.

Four of the field have previously tackled soft ground, with two going on to win and four of these runners have won at this grade before, with only Holy Fire yet to run at Class 4 on turf, according to Instant Expert...

Lil Guff and Sarah's Verse don't seem to mind the soft ground, but most of Cuban Breeze's best form has been on Good to Firm ground (as it normally is for this meeting!) or on the tapeta at Wolverhampton. Glamorous Breeze has consistently made the frame at both class (8 from 13) and trip (17 from 27) and she has 11 top 3 finishes from 13 races over 5f at Class 4.

We don't have much data for similar past contests here at Ascot, so I've tweaked the parameters slightly to try to see if the draw might affect Glamorous Breeze's chances out in stall 8 of 8...

...but I don't think the draw will be a deciding factor. Yeah, Cuban Breeze will be grateful to have got stall 1, which has produced a freakishly large number of winners, probably due to having the rail there to keep them straight, but aside from that, there doesn't seem to be a huge bias. Cuban Breeze hasn't won for some time, but makes the frame pretty often and that consistency allied to the 'plum' draw will make her popular and I suspect that, based on her last few outings, she's likely to be up with the pace, whilst Sarah's Verse will have to come flying late on, if she's to win here...

The pace stats here, however, suggest that coming from the back wouldn't be the best move and that those furthest forward would have the best chance...

Summary

On the face of it, Cuban Breeze should be the one to beat. She has been running consistently well of late, seems to have the best of the draw and is likely to be up with the pace. Sadly, as the one to beat, she seems to do just that ie get beat! She's on a 17-race losing streak and is still only 2lbs lower than her last win and runs off the same mark as her last four runs/losses, so I'm now expecting it to be another 'close, but no cigar' run for her.

She's good for the frame and at 13/2 with Hills at 3.15pm, could be one for a place/EW bet, but for the win I prefer Glamorous Breeze for her consistency at this class/trip and she comes here in great form and I think she can land her third win in four starts. She's currently 9/2 which is about right, I'd say and I'd guess the 1-2-3 would be completed by Woolhampton or Lil Guff. Neither are long enough at 11/2 for me to go E/W and if pushed, I prefer the latter of the two.

As for our 4/1 favourite Cruise, her four races on turf have ended 4686 and I'd rather back her the next time she's on the tapeta.

Racing Insights, Thursday 27/07/23

/in /by

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 2.20 Worcester
  • 2.30 Doncaster
  • 3.15 Sandown
  • 6.52 Leopardstown
  • 8.30 Yarmouth
  • 8.45 Newbury

The Sandown race is a Listed contest and is clearly the 'best' on the list, but 2yo fillies really aren't my thing, so let's check out the UK's most valuable race of the day, the final contest in the evening's Racing League fixture and the penultimate of our free races, the 8.30 Yarmouth, which is a 13-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good to soft ground...

This looks a tricky/competitive contest and I'm sure you'll be able to make a case for quite a few of these. The upside of this is that there shouldn't be any short prices and we might find a nice E/W bet for ourselves, especially with the bookies paying four places...

Andaleep won last time out, Elzaam Blue comes here on a hat-trick and Eagles Way has won his last four! Like A Tiger has won two of his last three, as has Cumulonimbus who has four wins and two places from his last seven outings.

These five are the 'form horses' here, but Certain Lad, Dark Pine, Baryshnikov, Ace Rothstein and Aqwaam all come here on fairly lengthy losing streaks, having lost their last 8, 12, 11, 11 and 7 races respectively. In fact, their recent form in comparison with the other five I named is so bad that I'm just going to omit them from my considerations immediately, leaving my card looking like this...

This makes the field much more manageable with just eight runners to consider, as I look at class movements. Five of the eight are stepping up in class here with Eagle's Way and Regal Empire up one class, Andaleep and Bringbackmemories are both up two levels and it's a triple step up for hat-trick seeking Elzaam Blue, which might make life tough.

Cumulonimbus and Old Port both raced at Class 2 last time out with the former having won and placed in his last two Class 2 starts, whilst Like A Tiger actually drops down from Listed class to run in just his second handicap contest, having won on handicap debut two starts ago. That win was over today's trip and of my eight under consideration, only Old Port, Regal Empire and Elzaam Blue have yet to score at this distance. Only Cumulonimbus has won here at Yarmouth, making all to score over course and distance on good to soft ground back in September 2022 at the start of his seven-race run of form I mentioned earlier.

Eagle's Way now carries top weight of those I'm still considering and his chances of a fifth win on the bounce might be affected by the fact that he hasn't raced for just over ten months, although he did win at Brighton on his seasonal reappearance at last July after an eight month absence, so he might well be one of those who goes well fresh. His rivals, however, have all raced in the last four weeks apart from Like A Tiger who has had twelve weeks' rest. Based on the above and on recent form, Old Port looks the weakest of the octet, so I'm bidding him goodbye before we even look at feature of the day, Instant Expert...

Eagle's Way is 2 from 2 on good ground and 2 from 2 on good to firm, but hasn't raced on good to soft and was only 8th of 15 when beaten by 9 lengths over 7f on soft ground when making his debut in October 2021. He makes a Class 2 debut after 2 wins at Class 3 and 2 at Class 5, but will certainly get the trip. Cumulonimbus has a line of green albeit off a small number of relevant races, but Andaleep is proven at this trip. Bringbackmemories looks the weakest on those win stats, particularly with 7 defeats from 8 at this trip. Perhaps, his place stats will make him look better...

And, in fairness, they do. Those numbers suggest he could still be in contention to make the frame, but I've already decided that I won't be backing him to win this one. He's drawn widest of the seven and is second widest of the entire field and although we don't have a stack of data (which is why I've tweaked the parameters a touch) about similar past contests, I'd say out wide is not the place to be here...

...from either a win or a place perspective and the PRB3 figures suggest those drawn 3 to 10 would have the best chances here...

...which keeps the other six runners in with a shout. Those 30+ races I used for the draw stats have, like many a Yarmouth race, tended to be won by those setting or closely tracking the pace...

...which, on the evidence of the runners' last four outings, would appear to suit Cumulonimbus, Eagle's Way and Elzaam Blue more than the others...

...and the pace/draw heat map looks like this...

Summary

I've used a process of elimination up to the draw stats, which I think eliminate Bringbackmemories from my enquiries, a decision backed up by his pace stats and the subsequent heat map. The heat map also suggests that Like A Tiger might struggle here, but if Elzaam Blue races like he did two, three and four starts ago, he could still be in with a shout.

Of those above, i think Regal Empire is the weakest and he was beaten in a lower grade last time out, so i wouldn't be backing him here. I also won't back Bringbackmemories or Like A Tiger to win this, although the latter clearly has ability and was the 9/2 favourite at 4.45pm on Wednesday. I suspect he'll be there or thereabouts despite my misgivings, but he's too short for to consider a win or an E/W bet.

This leaves me with Andaleep, Eagle's Way, Cumulonimbus and Elzaam Blue and with the bookies paying four places, they'd be the four I'd want to consider from at least an E/W perspective. Cumulonimbus has ticked most boxes all the way through the process and for me, he's the one to beat and can be backed at 13/2, which is quite reasonable.

Of the other three E/W possibles, Eagle's Way and Andaleep are both priced at or above my nominal 8/1 preferred price, so a pair of small E/W bets might be the answer there, but Elzaam Blue would be too short for those purposes at 6/1.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 26/07/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.30 Bath
  • 5.40 Lingfield
  • 5.55 Bath
  • 6.20 Naas
  • 8.10 Sandown

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated plenty of runners from a couple of in-form yards and have also picked out a trainer with a good long-term track record...

 

It's a pretty poor day of racing if truth be told with 5 UK courses holding 31 races with none rated any higher than Class 4. Thankfully one of those appears on our list of free races, so let's have a look at the 8.10 Sandown, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good ground...

A pretty inexperienced bunch here, as you might expect from a group of 3 yr olds. They've raced a total of 46 times so far, making the frame on 14 occasions (30.4%) and winning 7 times (15.2%). Gozo, Stage Show and Zodiac Star are still maidens after 6, 6 and 4 attempts respectively, from which Stage Show has never even made the frame.

Conversely, Morcar won last time out and Gallant Lion comes in search of a hat-trick after wins at Brighton and Newbury in the past month. Two of the maidens, Zodiac Star & Gozo should be assisted by dropping down towo classes here, the third maiden, Stage Show, actually steps up a grade here, as do our two LTO winners, Morcar and Gallant Lion.

Dumfires drops down a class for what will be his second handicap run, as it will also be for Golspie and LTO winner Morcar, whilst Zodiac Star makes a handicap debut here and wears a hood for the first time, whilst Golspie sports cheekpieces for the first time.

Six of the nine runners have already won at least one race (only Gallant Lion has won twice!), but none have won here at Sandown before (Dancing In Paris & Stage Show are the only ones to have raced here), but both of Gallant Lion's victories have been over today's trip, as was Morcar's success LTO.

Dumfries might well need a run after a break of almost 16 weeks, but the remainder of the field have all seen action in the last six weeks with both Gozo and Gallant Lion having raced in the last fortnight. In addition to the other facts, Instant Expert tells us that six of the field have raced on good ground before, generating two wins, whilst Golspie is the only one of the six previous Class 4 flat runners to have won at this grade...

None of these have really raced enough to give too many causes for concern, but the fact that Stage Show has yet to make the frame after six efforts has to be noted. Dancing In Paris has a weak record at Class 4, but does like good ground and the vast majority of the field should be fine with the trip. Dancing In Paris is now 9lbs higher than his last win and is only rated 1lb lower than his last run, which saw him beaten by more than ten lengths, so that's got to raise doubts here. Morcar and Gallant Lion are up 8lbs and 7lbs respectively for their LTO wins, but both (especially Morcar) won relatively comfortably, so might not yet be anchored by the weight.

It would be easy to assume from the draw sectors, that those drawn highest would have a distinct advantage here...

...but I'd temper those thoughts by (a) pointing to the place stats, which are pretty consistent across the board, (b) showing you the stall-by-stall data, which looks a bit skewed in places and (c) reproducing the PRB3 data...

There may well be a bit of a flat spot around the data for stalls 4 & 5 that is overcompensated by the number of wins from stalls 6 & 7, but I'm not entirely convinced the draw is going to make or break a runner's chances here over 1m2f on good ground. That can't necessarily be said for race/race tactics, as there's a clear template for how to win such races...

...and that involves getting out quickly and leading. The way this field have raced in their relatively short careers would tend to suggest that Gallant Lion might struggle to land the hat-trick here...

Summary

Despite the pace chart above, I do think that the LTO winners Gallant Lion and Morcar are the horses to beat here and it's no surprise to see them installed as early (3.40pm) 3/1 joint favourites. Morcar won far more comfortably than Gallant Lion last time out and does appear to have a better pace profile, so if pushed to pick between the two, I'd be looking for Morcar to just edge Gallant Lion out.

Referring back to the pace chart, all Band of Steel's decent efforts have been on the A/W, he has shown little on turf and Dancing In Paris is too high in the weights, as I suggested earlier. Zodiac Star, however, might well improve for a step up in trip and he is down two classes here and might well be of E/W interest, especially as he's effectively 4lbs lower than LTO. You can get 10/1 about him at the moment and that might not be a bad shout. Similar applies to Golspie at 14's, he won on his debut and is very lightly raced. There's a touch of the unknowns about him, but he wouldn't have to do too much to get involved here in what looks a mediocre field.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 25/07/23

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Al Zaraqaan and Hiconic would be of obvious immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.20 Southwell
  • 6.38 Ballinrobe
  • 7.50 Chelmsford
  • 8.50 Chelmsford

The two at the top of The Shortlist are both likely to go off quite short in small field contests (4 of Southwell's 6 races have less than 7 runners!), so we'll head to Essex for the 7.50 Chelmsford, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo+, A/W handicap over a left handed 1m2f on standard to slow polytrack...

None of these managed to win any of their last two races, but Wild Hurricane and Totnes made the frame last time out whilst Boasty, One For The frog, Mayfair Gold, Semser and The Bay Warrior were all successful three starts ago.

Semser, Jenson Benson, Nasim, Marion's Boy and Wadacre Gomez all step up a class here, whilst The Bay Warrior makes a double step up, which might cause him issues after a poor Class 6 run over course and distance last time out. Likely favourite Totnes, however, was third in a Class 3 contest on her most recent start. She's also one of just two 3yos in the race and as such, gets a handy 9lbs weight allowance, as does Wadacre Gomez.

Wild Hurricane makes just a second appearance in handicap company and wears cheekpieces for the first time whilst it's a debut in a hood for Mayfair Gold, who like Tarbaan, Boasty, Semser, Jenson Benson and The Bay Warrior, is a former course and distance winner. Of the other six runners, Nasim has won here over a mile, whilst Marion/s Boy and Wadacre Gomez have been scored over 1m2f at Lingfield and Newcastle respectively.

Jenson Benson returns from almost eleven weeks off and The Bay Warrior hasn't raced for almost fourteen weeks, but the other ten have all been seen since the start of June with Nasim and Wadacre Gomez having run just a fortnight ago.

In addition to the course/distance wins mentioned above, Instant Expert advises us that field doesn't have a particularly good record on standard to slow A/W and that only five of them have a Class 4 A/W win...

I'd say that Tarbaan edges that, but despite the swathe of red, there aren't too many causes for concern, aside from Marion's Boy only winning 1 of 12 at this level, which is a worry, although it looks like he has made the frame in 3 of his 11 defeats...

Our Draw Analyser says that similar 1m2f contests at Chelmsford haven't really displayed much of a stalls bias...

...because if we said that the figures for stalls 2 & 9 were outliers, then there's really not a great deal of difference along the line, so that must mean that pace is the key here, as it often is at Chelmsford. Shorter trips here have certainly favoured those setting the tempo, but let's see how those races above have panned out via our Pace Analyser...

...and whilst the effect of leading isn't quite a pronounced over this trip, you'd certainly rather be on a front runner than a hold-up type, especially from a place perspective. And if this field's last few runs are anything to go by, then the likely favourite Totnes is going to have her work cut out from the back of the pack...

Summary

Totnes is indeed the early (3.30pm) favourite at a fairly miserly 5/2 with the only open book at Hills. She's got ability, has a handy weight allowance and is running well, but 5/2 is too short for me about a runner destined to have to pass most of her rivals late on if she's to win. I also liked Tarbaan from Instant Expert, he's a former course and distance winner, but concedes weight all round and will also have to pass most of the field if he was to win. He'd make an ideal E/W bet, but not at 6/1!

So, for an E/W bet, i want to focus on the top 5 on the pace chart ie all those with an average score in excess of 2.00 and Boasty leads the way. He's a three-time course and distance, his last six A/W runs have seen him finish 223112. His place stats on Instant Expert were excellent, he'll set the pace here and at 10/1, looks a good E/W option.

Wadacre Gomez started out well, but has been heavily beaten in his last two outings and I'd prefer to see him show some improvement before I put any money on him. Wild Hurricane is unexposed and has finished 332 in his three A/W starts and would be a contender here. He's the 4/1 second favourite, so that's too short for an E/W bet, but he might actually go on and win this with the addition of cheekpieces.

And finally, we have Semser, who won here over course and distance in May before finishing as a runner-up at Goodwood four weeks later. He was somewhat disappointing at Lingfield next/last time out, but he is a former course and distance winner and if things fall right for him, he too could be an E/W option at 12/1, especially with the bookies paying four places here in what looks a decent/competitive race for Class 4.

 

 

Racing Insights, Monday 24/07/23

/in /by

Sorry for being later than usual this evening, I've spent much of my weekend helping my travel clients affected by the terrible fires on Rhodes (yes, I'm a travel agent away from the racing, so if you need a holiday, I'm your man!), but I'm back with you all now with a preview for Monday.

The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 6.10 Ballinrobe
  • 7.30 Beverley
  • 8.20 Windsor
  • 8.30 Beverley

Of the three UK free races, the first seems to have biggest spread of pace based on the field's last four runs, as this is how the runners in the 7.30 Beverley have approached their most recent contests...

The race itself is a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-hand 7½f on soft ground that is already heavy in places and here's how they'll line up...

Revoquable won here over course and distance last time out, albeit on good to firm ground, but it does mean that he's the only one coming here off the back of a win. Stoney Lane has also won here over course and distance, whilst How Bizarre has won over 1m½f on this track. None of the other have won at either trip nor track.

All Dunn makes a yard debut for Harriet Bethell less than a fortnight after a good runner-up finish at Wolverhampton on his final run for Jamie Osborne and aside from Revoquable's win LTO, he's the only one to have made the frame last time around, but Ey Up It's Jazz has won two from three and How Bizarre won two starts ago.

Floats On Air might need the run after a break of almost four months and all of his rivals here have raced in the last 24 days with Ey Up It's Jazz have had just a week's rest. These are all confirmed Class 6 runners and none raced at a higher level last time.

Instant Expert paints a typical Class 6 picture of very few wins, but one of them has won on soft/heavy ground already and all bar two have won at Class 6. If you change the parameters on Instant Expert, you'll find that How Bizarre has won at Class 4 and Class 5, whilst Bold Territories and Stoney Lane are also former Class 5 winners...

Ey Up It's Jazz is the clear eye-catcher, but with really poor win figures for most of the field (anything in red from 10+ races is poor), I thin we're going to need some help from the place stats...

...which still aren't brilliant, but do suggest that some of these might well have enough in their lockers to make the frame. Sadly, I'm underwhelmed by the numbers for Floats On Air and/or Congress, so they're out of the picture for me, as I go and look to see if the draw might have an effect on the outcome here...

...but there doesn't seem to be much in it. The PRB3 figures pretty much say the same, but do suggest that the lower you're drawn, the slightly better chance you seem to have...

It's not a huge bias, but ignoring the clear anomaly that is stall 8, the PRB3 figure for stall 1 (0.54) is 108% that of stalls 6 & 7 (0.50), so there's a slight advantage there, which could be good for Revoquable & All Dunn in the two lowest stalls. And now back to where we started, our daily free feature, the PACE. We know from the top of the page that the runners have approached their most recent contests like this...

...and if we look at how those Beverley races we used for the draw stats have panned out...

...you'd probably want to focus on those with an average pace score of at least 2.50, although I'm interested in Revoquable's last two runs, where he raced prominently leading to a course and distance win last time out, suggesting he'll race that way again here. Bold Territories misses the cut here.

Summary

I've disregarded three already, leaving me with six to consider, from which I think Revoquable is the one to beat. He's drawn well, won over C&D recently and should race prominently, he has made the frame in tricky conditions before and I think he'll make it back-to back wins here. We're not getting rich at the 10pm price of 3/1, but it's probably a fair price.

All Dunn is the 5/2 fav and whilst I do like his chances here, that's too short for me, but he should be there or thereabouts. The one I do like from an E/W perspective is the 11/1 How Bizarre, he has a win and a runner-up finish from his last three outings, has won at both Class 4 and Class 5, has a consistent record at making the frame under these conditions and will be the likely front runner here. As long as only two pass him, we'll be fine!