Tag Archive for: Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Wednesday 30/08/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.15 Cork
  • 3.15 Cork
  • 4.35 Bellewstown
  • 4.40 Uttoxeter
  • 6.00 Kempton
  • 7.20 Uttoxeter

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated just one runner to consider...

14-day form

course 1-year form

If I'm honest, I'm not keen on any of the free races, nor the race involving the wildly out-of-form Lord Bryan, so I'm going pot luck today and I'm just going to cover the highest rated race of the day, which happens to be the 6.20 Uttoxeter, an 8-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m4f on good ground...

None of these managed to win on their last outing but Sacchoandvanzetti and Presenting Pete were runners-up and Chaos Control was third. One Touch has won two of this last three and Chaos Control, Mr Tambourine Man and City Derby have all won once in their last five.

One Touch now drops in class after failing to land a hat-trick, but top weight Ashington, likely favourite Sacchoandvanzetti and Presenting Pete are all up one level. Only four of the field (Mr Tambourine Man, City Derby, Presenting Pete and One Touch) have won over this trip before with the latter being the sole previous course winner, having scored over course and distance three starts ago.

Those wins will be highlighted in Instant Expert, which will show the overall past record of the field under expected conditions...

...and there's not much to crow about there, although One Touch looks the one on those figures, although he's 11lbs higher than when he won two starts ago (but is down in class and by 2lbs here). Mr Tambourine Man and City Derby have poor win records on good ground, but if truth be told with respective overall records of 3 from 18 and 4 from 23, they tend not to win very often on any type of going!

Ashington has failed to win any of eleven at Class 3, so you'd not expect that to change here and Mr Tambourine Man has been poor at this trip, but as I said before, he's generally poor! With so little green to work with, it might be worthwhile looking at the field's place records under the same criteria...

...which is more interesting. From that, I think I'd be happier with Ashington, One Touch, Sacchoandvanzetti and Presenting Pete than I would be with the other half of the field.

In past similar races, the further forward your horse has raced, the better the chances of winning have been...

...and if we look back at our eight runners' most recent efforts, we seem to have a reluctance to lead...

...but I'd expect Chaos Control and Ashington to end up making the pace here.

Summary

Short and sweet today, sadly. This might be the highest rated race of the day, but it's a poor-looking contest once I've got into it. The 3/1 favourite Sacchoandvanzetti is probably the horse to beat, but I'm concerned about him having to come from off the pace and whilst he might well win, I think I'd rather back Chaos Control at 7/2, based on the pace scores.

Ashington might also be up with the pace and whilst not an obvious winner with a 4 from 23 record over hurdles, he has made the frame 12 times and his place stats on Instant Expert were decent enough. Tie that data in with a prominent run and it could be a 13th place from 24 runs. 13/2 is a bit short for me as an E/W bet, but it's your own call. You never know, he might drift a little.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 29/08/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Island Bandit would of the the most obvious immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 2.15 Ripon
  • 3.40 Newbury
  • 6.20 Worcester
  • 7.15 Bellewstown

The sharper eyed amongst you will have noticed that Island Bandit from The Shortlist runs in one of the free races above, so it would be a little remiss of me not to take a look at the the 3.40 Newbury, a 10-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on good/good to firm ground...

Featured runner Island Bandit has won two of his last three outings and along with Cabinet of Clowns, he comes here on the back of a win last time out. Bodorgan and Remarkable Force were in the frame on their last runs, but the latter is one of a pair (Intervention being the other) who are winless in five or more ( 9 & 21 respectively) races. In fact, although Intervention is denoted as a fast finisher here, a Flat record of 1 from 21, a run of 21 consecutive defeats and a two-step rise in class is enough for me to rule him out of contention straight away.

Cabiney of Clowns, Monte Linas and the out of form Remarkable Force all step up a class (and that should put paid to the latter's chances too), but two of the field (top-weight Classic and Crack Shot) are dropping down from Class 2 with the latter having a second run in handicap company, just under four weeks after his handicap debut and all ten runners here have raced inside the last four weeks.

As you'd expect from his position on The Shortlist, Island Bandit is a former course and distance winner and is in fact, the only previous Newbury winner in the field. Mind you, only half of the field have been here before! He has also won over a mile away from Newbury, as have Metabolt, Cabinet of Clowns, Sea Eagle and Monte Linas, as documented below on Instant Expert...

...where Island Bandit's numbers really do stand out and Intervention looks weak again. There are plenty of red blocks above, but most of them are from sample sizes of five races or fewer, so I think the place data might prove helpful here...

Well, that wasn't entirely helpful, but it does suggest that many of these should run well enough under the expected conditions. Classic has, however, failed to make the frame in four attempts here at Newbury and Bodorgan looks weak on going/distance. Island Bandit's record on the going is also interesting, with all 6 places (from 13 runs) being wins. Boom or bust, perhaps?

If he's going to land another course success, he's going to have to do it from stall 9 of 10, though, and our draw analyser does suggest he'd have been better off drawn lower...

This doesn't of course, mean that he can't win, but to overcome the draw, our pace analyser suggests that his best tactic would be to get out quickly and stay out for as long as he possibly can...

...especially as our pace/draw heat map says that high drawn front-runners have the best of it over a mile here at Newbury...

...which is great news for Island Bandit, based on his most recent efforts...

...and those average pace scores aligned with today's draw generate the following pace/draw heat map...

Summary

The market seems to favour Classic here as the early 9/4 fav, but I'm not entirely convinced. He has failed to shine here at Newbury, hasn't really tackled this trip and would prefer the ground to be softer. There's no disputing his ability, Team Hannon don't throw runners straight into Group 3 action after a seven break if they don't think they're any good, but I'm not sure 9/4 represents any value. He does, of course, has a good draw and a 6lbs weight allowance and I'm sure he'll give a good account of himself unburdened by the weight of my money! 😉

Instead, I feel more drawn to Instant Expert and the pace/draw heat map, where from low to high, Cabinet of Clowns, Island Bandit and Crack Shot catch my eye and whilst featured runner Island Bandit is carrying a 5lb penalty for a recent two-length success, he has conditions to suit and has two wins and a runner-up finish under today's jockey. He might not quite get there today, but at 11/1, Island Bandit has to be my E/W pick, whilst Cabinet of Clowns wouldn't be a bad call at 10's either after winning two of his last four.

As for Crack Shot, much might depend on how Island Bandit runs and if he tows him into the race. If he gets the break he needs and builds on a promising handicap debut last time out in a higher grade at Glorious Goodwood, he could well be the winner here at 9/2, but I'm playing if relatively safe with my E/W picks.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 28/08/23

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Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 2.00 Southwell
  • 2.05 Downpatrick
  • 2.30 Epsom
  • 2.50 Chepstow
  • 3.50 Downpatrick
  • 4.15 Epsom

And of the four UK races above, the highest-rated handicap also has the widest variance in pace profiles, so let's have a quick look at the 4.15 Epsom, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a -handed 1m2f on good ground...

None of these managed to win on their last outings, but Zhang Fei, Ribal and Oh So Grand were placed and the latter had won two on the bounce before that run, whilst only God Of Fire and Flight of Angels are the others to have won at least once in their last five efforts.

Zhang Fei, Ribal, Oh So Grand, Light Up Stars and Giovanni Baglione all step up a class here, but Flight of Angels drops down from Class 3 for a race which sees God Of Fire wear a tongue tie for the first time and Ribal wears first-time cheekpieces. Zhang Fei is hooded for his yard debut for John Gallagher.

This will be Oh So Grand's second run in a handicap and he's one of just three (along with Light Up Our Stars and Flight of Angels) to have won at this trip already, with Light Up, Our Stars the sole previous course winner, courtesy of a course and distance success almost 14 months ago.

This field's lack of course/distance success is, of course, shown up in Instant Expert...

...which hardly sets the pulse racing!

Udaberri and Light Up Our Stars look weak in this grade and although a course and distance winner, the latter's record at this trip leaves a bit to be desired. Elsewhere, there's little to help me here, I just hope the place stats are better!

Thankfully, they are! My general rule of thumb with relying on place form is to eliminate any runner that has no green for the going/class/course distance columns, so I'm just going to focus on these runners going forward...

Having discarded runners in stalls 5, 6 & 8, I'm hoping that our draw analyser is going to tell me that a low draw is favoured here...

...and whilst it's not a huge bias, it does seem the lower draws win more often and the PRB3 scores would be against the higher drawn runners...

That said, having the better draw over a trip of 1m2f isn't the be all and end all and much will, of course, depend on how the runners use their starting position and those races above have, according to our pace analyser, tended to suit runners racing prominently stalking the leader(s)...

...which based on their recent efforts would seem to suit Ribal and possibly Zhang Fei if Flight Of Angels and Oh So Grand decide to take it on early...

Of course, Oh So Grand might sit just off the leader like he did last time out, which could well be the best play here and our pace/draw heat map suggests the four runners mentioned are best positioned...

Summary

The four at the top end of that pace/draw heatmap are the ones I want to focus on here and I think it's a 2-way battle between Ribal and Oh So Grand here. Both are in decent form, both get a 7lb weight allowance as three year olds and both are drawn relatively low. Both are priced at around the 3/1 mark and if pushed, I'd take the filly Oh So Grand over Ribal, based on her two recent victories.

As for the placer, the 9/1 Zhang Fei could well be dangerous if tuned up for his yard debut, but the 132-day absence is a bit of a nagging concern, so it might be safer to side with the equally 9/1 priced Flight of Angels who had been in good form over this kind of trip prior to stepping up to 1m4f last time out. She weakened late on that day at Salisbury, but should go well on the front end (Joe Fanning is excellent at reading the pace of a race) back down in trip.

Racing Insights, Saturday 26/08/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated qualifiers as follows...

30-day form...

1-year form...

and course 1-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 3.00 York
  • 4.32 Newmarket
  • 5.10 Curragh
  • 5.20 York
  • 5.55 Killarney
  • 7.50 Windsor

...and of all the races listed above, the first of the free list is the highest-rated, so let's have a look at the 3.00 York, an 11-runner, Group 2. 3yo+ flat contest over a left-handed 7f on good to firm ground which is good in places. They've been watering and showers are expected, so it should remain slightly slower than good to firm for this group...

I'll start by saying that Kinross is likely to be a warm favourite here after beating Isaac Shelby in the Lennox Stakes at the start of the month and he, his trainer and his jockey also combined to win this race last year. His short price should, however open the door for a reasonably-priced placer or two, so let's dive in...

Surprisingly for a race of this magnitude, Kinross is the only one coming here off the back of a win, although Isaac Shelby was only a neck behind him in second (Audience was last of six 4.5 lengths back), whilst Jumby and Sacred were also runners-up on their last runs at Gr3 and Gr1 respectively.

That Lennox Stakes race featuring three of today's field was 25 days ago and only Pogo of this field has raced since that day, when a disappointing last of nine in the Hungerford Stakes last Saturday. The rest of this field were last seen 8 to 10 weeks ago, so all should be refreshed for the task in hand, where Sandrine wears a visor for the first time.

She's one of three (along with Sacred and Olivia Maralda) who'll get a 3lb mares' allowance here, whilst we have a trio of 3 yr olds (Covey, Isaac Shelby and Olivia Maralda again) who receive a 5lbs age allowance, meaning of course, that the 3yo filly Olivia Maralda is getting 8lbs from more than half of the field.

All eleven have won over today's trip, as you'd expect, but only Kinross and Pogo have won here at York; Kinross won this race over course and distance last year, of course, on his sole previous trip to the Knavesmire, whilst Pogo won a 1m, Class 2 handicap at this meeting four years ago. This pair of course wins is highlighted in Instant Expert...

I suspect the ground will be too quick for Sandrine, who is 1 from 8 on good to firm, but 3 from 5 on slower ground/AW. whilst Mutasaabeq is 4 from 8 on good ground and 2 from 3 on soft/heavy, so he'd probably want rain here. As expected, there's a whole stack of Class 1 wins for this bunch whilst Sacred (8 from 13), Kinross (9 from 15) and Isaac Shelby (3 from 5) have made the frame in 60% or more of their Class 1 outings to date.

The eleven runners have just 12 previous York runs between them, winning twice, although Pogo and Sandrine have both made the frame twice and Sacred was the runner-up in the Gr2 Lowther Stakes here three years ago. The trip should hold no fears for any of these with all eleven having a place strike rate of 50% or more (Kinross has made the frame in 8 of 9 at 7f!).

I don't expect the draw to have too much of an effect here, even if the bare stats suggest that those drawn centrally should have an advantage...

...because the PRB3 data suggests that Stall 5 (Al Suhail today) has fared the worst, despite it being deemed a mid-draw...

And if I'm right in assuming that one set of data cancels the other out and negates the effect of the draw, then it must mean that race tempo/positioning (aka pace) is more key to success here and those races above has been won as follows...

...which doesn't look good for leaders, who seem to get swamped later on by the stalkers. Hold-up horses make the frame most often, so if you're on a hold-up type with a jockey who is a good judge of pace, you could be quids in, but I think the key here is not to be the target up front. If we look at this field's last few outings, those pace stats might not be good news for the likes of Covey, Audience, Mutasaabeq and possibly Al Suhail/Isaac Shelby...

..but those from Kinross downwards on that chart will have enhanced chances of making the frame, assuming they're good enough, of course!

Summary

It's hard to get away from Kinross here. He's currently best priced at 7/4 with Hills and although I'm not a fan of backing shorties, that price might still actually hold some value.

He was second in last year's Lennox before winning this race, which he followed up with another Gr2 success before winning a Group 1 on Champions Day at Ascot in October. He probably needed the run when seventh in the Jubilee Stakes back at Ascot this June after more than eight months off, but in two runs since has finished third in the Gr1 July Cup and has won the Gr2 Lennox.

Isaac Shelby ran him relatively close last time out, although the winner did seem to have more in the tank and a similar run from the best of the three year olds puts him in with a good shout of making the frame again and as he's currently 7/1 and drifting, he'd be my E/W pick, especially if he drifts with either Skybet or Paddy Power who are paying four places.

Sacred might well beat Isaac Shelby here, as long as Tom Marquand times the later run correctly. This  5yr old mare has finished 1212 in her last four and was only beaten by a neck in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes last time out. the quality of that run is sadly quantified by her current 4/1 odds, which are too low for my liking as an E/W bet, but she's a real contender for at least a place here.

Not many others are screaming 'back me!' here, though, but if I was tempted to place a longer-priced E/W bet in the hope of a top four finish, then the 3yo filly Olivia Maralda might fit the bill at odds currently ranging from 10/1 to 12/1. She's getting 8lbs from most of her rivals, runs well from off the pace (ideal tactics here), she likes the quicker ground and her yard is in decent form.

Racing Insights, Friday 25/08/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have still produced a couple of qualifiers

,,,which are, as always, supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.40 Newmarket
  • 3.00 York
  • 5.45 Hamilton
  • 6.20 Hamilton
  • 7.15 Goodwood
  • 8.05 Hamilton

The York race above is a Group 2 sprint worth over £150k, but I'm not comfortable in 2yo races, so I'm going to head North of the border for a competitive-looking fillies' handicap in the 5.45 Hamilton from the free list. It's a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ affair over a right-handed 1m1f on good to soft ground, which will be softer in places and more showers are forecast for this field...

Dandy's Angel looks like the form horse here, having won last time out and having landed three of her last four. She has actually won four of her last seven since finishing third at Carlisle on the 2nd June, despite only winning two of her previous 44 outings. Elsewhere, only Alethiometer and Do I Dream have a win in their last six efforts, although the 3yr old Streetzoffilly has only raced three times.

She makes her handicap debut here and like fellow 3 yr olds Centre Court and Anjo Bonita, she gets a useful 7lbs weight for age allowance. She's also up a level from Class 5 here, but she's not alone, as the bottom four on the card (Anjo Bonita, Do I Dream and Dandy's Angel being the others) all step up one class.

As well as getting the weight allowance and stepping up in class, this will only be Anjo Bonita's second run in a handicap and like all bar Do I Dream, she was last seen less than three weeks ago. Mind you, Do I Dream's 45-day layoff shouldn't cause any fitness issues. Dandy's Angel is turned back out quickest, just nine days after a nice win at Beverley, which 'earned' her a 5lb weight rise, but she is the only previous distance winner in a field with no previous course wins.

That said, Instant Expert tells me that only four of them have raced here before and only two of them have visited more than once. Instant Expert also says the field have largely toiled under the forecasted conditions...

...which is a pretty underwhelming set of results. Golden Melody and in-form Dandy's Angel have particularly poor results on this going, whilst the former is 0/20 at Class 4 and the latter is 1/8 at the trip. Strangely, though, this pair were two that I initially thought might do well, perhaps place form will show them in a better light...

...which is a much better picture for most of this field. Centre Court looks weak, whilst as you'd expect from a three-race maiden, Streetzoffilly has little data to work with. If truth be told about Golden Melody and Dandy's Angel, the former prefers a slightly shorter trip and the latter is better at 1m2f, but along with Anjo Bonita and Do I Dream, they make up the four I'd be most interested in from Instant Expert.

There doesn't seem to have been too much of a draw bias in past similar races, although those drawn highest have made the frame most often and have the best PRB3 scores...

...which might give a (very) slight advantage to Dandy's Angel and Do I Dream who will emerge from boxes 6 and 7 respectively. And if we re-consider those same races above from a pace perspective, the key has been to be able to track the leader(s) with a view to pouncing late on...

...where prominent runners have provided 55.3% of the winners from just 34.8% of the runners. As for placers, hold-up horses have really struggled here, which might cause problems for Golden Melody, Dandy's Angel and Do I Dream if they approach this way in the same manner as their last few runs...

...but Anjo Bonita might well find the tempo of the race to her liking.

Summary

I had thought that Golden Melody and Dandy's Angel would be the two to beat here, despite having poor win records on Instant Expert and having seemingly poor pace profiles for this race, but I can't back either if I want to be true to the process that generally serves me well. Instead, the one I want to back, despite not being an obvious winner, is Anjo Bonita at 4/1. It's not a generous price, if truth be told. I was hoping for a little more, but she might drift a little (fingers crossed).

She may well be a 10-race maiden, but she has made the frame in eight starts, including five of the six under today's jockey Billy Garrity. She's 2lbs lower than her handicap debut and gets a weight for age allowance here and is sure to be on the premises when the race is won, hopefully in her favour.

Racing Insights, Thursday 24/08/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.50 York
  • 2.15 Chepstow
  • 5.30 Killarney
  • 7.40 Killarney
  • 7.55 Leopardstown
  • 8.35 Chelmsford

Our three UK free races are a Class 1 affair for 2 yr old fillies and a pair of Class 6 contests; none of which really appeal to me, so I'm done here today.

Only joking! I've decided to find an alternative race to look at from both a quality and an Instant Expert perspective and I've fell upon the 2.40 Stratford, a 7-runner (shame there's not 8, of course), Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase, over a left-handed 2m3½f on good ground...

Presentandcounting won last time out and is two from three, but all seven have at least one win from their last five outings. The LTO winner is, however, up one class here, as is bottom-weight Sea Prince, whilst top-weight Hang In There, Tardree and sole mare La Domaniale all raced at Class 1 last time, as they finished 3rd, 6th and 9th in the 14-runner Summer Plate at Market Rasen, where Courtland (who won for us on Tuesday) was the runner-up.

That was 33 days ago and the entire field has raced in the last 23 to 53 days, they've also all won here at Stratford before with Presentandcounting, La Domaniale and Cracking Destiny being former course and distance winners. Hang In There and Tardree have won over a similar trip elsewhere.

Jockey Joe Anderson takes 5lbs off Emma Lavelle's top-weighted Hang In There, which should help his cause allied with that drop in class after being placed at Class 1 and Instant Expert says he's now 4lbs lower than his last winning mark...

Plenty of positives there, although Noahthirtytwored is better over hurdles than fences so far, but that 1 in 5 on good ground is tempered by him making the frame in 2 of the 4 defeats. Presentandcounting's two Class 2 chases have seen him finish 6th and 9th, but he was prolific at Class 3, making the frame in 8 of 9 attempts, winning 6 times, whereas Sea Prince's 1 from 7 on good ground represents his whole chasing career and on that basis alone, I'm ruling him out here, whilst I think the top three look strongest right now.

In similar past contests, the further forward a horse ahs raced, the better has been the chances of winning the race...

...but as long as you're not held-up, there's every chance of making the frame without leading...

If we look at the field's last few outings...

...then you'd probably want to consider the top four for a likely winner and also worry about Noahthirtytwored's chances of making the frame.

Summary

From Instant Expert I liked Hang In There, Presentandcounting and La Dominiale, whilst the pace stats pointed towards Tardree, Hang In There, Presentandcounting and Sea Prince with Hang In There and Presentandcounting scoring well on both counts. The latter is a former course and distance winner who has finished 121 in his last three, but is up in class and weight after demolishing a 3-runner contest at Perth recently, sauntering home by 38 lengths. The former didn't win last time out but ran a really good race to finish third in the Class 1 Summer Plate, just one place behind Courtland who won for us on Tuesday.

I suspect there'll be little between the pair, but if pushed for a selection, I think I prefer the class dropping 4/1 Hang In There off a mark lower than his last win, but the 5/2 fav Presentandcounting shouldn't be too far away.

Only seven go to post after the withdrawal of Vision des Flos, so we only get two places at the bookies, although Coral are paying four places. If you can place bets with them, then 17/2 E/W about the mare La Dominiale could well work.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 23/08/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.50 Bath
  • 3.00 York
  • 3.45 Carlisle
  • 5.05 Bath
  • 5.10 Sligo

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

14-day form...

30-day form...

1-year course form...

Of all the races above (free & TS report), the Great Voltigeur (3.00 York) is clearly the highest rated, but with just five going to post, I'll swerve that one. Sadly the rest of our highlighted races are at Class 4 and below, the most valuable of which is the race featuring in-form James Tate's 3yo gelding Endless Power, who runs in the 8.22 Kempton, a 13-runner, Class 4, 3yo+, A/W handicap over a right-handed mile on standard to slow polytrack...

Endless Power was a winner last time out, as was Starshiba, whilst Baileysgutfeeling, Two Tempting, Owl Island, Florida and Super Den have all won at least one of their last five races.

Four of these (Spinaround, Baileysgutfeeling, Owl Island and Florida) drop down a grade from Class 3 action with the latter having just a second handicap run, whilst First View is down two classes here. Featured runner and LTO winner Endless Power is the only class riser, as he makes a handicap debut on his step up from a Class 5 run four weeks ago.

Most of his rivals have also had a recent (last 45 days) run, but Spinaround has been off for almost ten weeks and Florida has been away almost fifteen weeks and might need a run. He's tongue tied for the first time here, whilst Baltimore Boy debuts in a visor and it's a first run in blinkers for Million Thanks.

First View and Super Den have both won over this course and distance in the past and Baileysgutfeeling, Starshiba, Ernie's Valentine and Florida have all scored on this track. Spinaround, Starshiba, Million Thanks and Endless Power are all former mile winners on other tracks.

Collateral/relative A/W form is displayed on Instant Expert, where First View would appear to be in his element...

...as his four-race A/W career reads 1121, all over course and distance with the defeat coming by just a head and his last run here saw him land a Class 2 contest off a mark 3lbs higher than today, so this track & trip specialist might be very dangerously weighted here if recapturing some old form. Spinaround, Baltimore Boy, Million Thanks and Venetian look most vulnerable albeit off small sample sizes and the only real concerns I have from the above are Starshiba's 1 from 7 on standard to slow and Two Tempting now being 7lbs higher than a course and distance win by a neck two starts ago.

The place stats don't actually help to clear things up. If anything they muddy the waters further by showing that this might well end up being rather competitive, see for yourself...

I think we'll put that to one side and have a look at our Draw Analyser of past similar races to see if any of these might have been handed an advantage by stall means of stall allocation...

...and whilst it's not the biggest draw bias you'll ever see, the inference is that you'd want to be in the lower half of the draw here, whilst our Pace Analyser says that those races above have benefited those most willing to set the tempo...

...so we're looking for runners keen to get on with things and this is how the field have approached their most recent outings...

...and I think that I want 2.50 to be my cut-off point here, especially as all those below that line have been held-up at least once in their last four outings. If I then order the top seven from that chart into draw order and over lay the pace/draw heat map, we get something like this...

...where we've ended up with seven of the eight lowest drawn being the seven with the best pace profile from the race.

Summary

I'm happy at the way we've ended up with seven runners to consider from thirteen and the process is robust, but with the bookies only paying four places, I have to get rid of at least three and I think that Bottom weight and possible leader Venetian is the weakest of the seven. he has been well beaten in three of his last five runs (all defeats) since winning narrowly at Wolverhampton back in November 2022 and is still 2lbs higher than that win, so he's a no from me.

Of the rest, there's only really Million Thanks that I wouldn't be too keen on. He has won just one of sixteen to date and is on a run of thirteen defeats, six of which represent his entire A/W career, although he has been a course and distance runner-up twice this year. He has been beaten by 6 lengths or more in three of his last five, so he's out of my reckoning too.

Which leaves us with five runners for four places and I think all five have a good chance of making the frame. In card order and using Bet365's odds as of 5.10pm Tuesday (the only book open)...

...my initial response would be to (a) be a little disappointed that all my possibles are at the sharper end of the market and 9b0 place a small E/W bet on First View. He's down in class, scores well on Instant Expert and could be dangerous off today's mark.

The one that I think will win is Two Tempting, he's still progressing well and with a win and four runner-up finishes from his seven runs those season allied to finishes of 14221 in five handicap efforts over course and distance, he's sure to be there or thereabouts, so another small bet at a fair price of 9/2 is in order here. I've absolutely nothing against backing any of Owl Island, Florida or Endless Power for a place either, other than I'm not keen on going that short in the market for such a bet, but I'd not be surprised to see them in the frame.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 22/08/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...whilst we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 4.00 Newton Abbot
  • 6.00 Worcester
  • 7.00 Worcester

Both Worcester races feature on The Shortlist above and I think I'll have a look at Peregrine Run in the 6.00 Worcester, a 12-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m7f on good ground...

Brief Times arrives here on a hat-trick and is thwe only LTO winner on the pack, although Courtland has three wins and a runner-up finish from his last four outings. Featured horse Peregrine Run carries top weight here and he has two wins and a place from his last four whilst Hell Red, Go On Chez, Saint Arvans & The Vollan have all won once in five.

Only four (Peregrine Run, Ruthless Article, Hell Red & Eritage) of these raced at this grade last time out as Brief Times, Go On Chez, Saint Arvans, Organdi and The Vollan all step up a level from Class 3 and bottom weight Gats and Co is up two classes whilst Killer Clown and Courtland both ran at Class 1 a month ago in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen where the former was pulled up whilst the latter was the runner-up beaten by just three quarters of a length having conceded 13lbs to the winner who has since won again.

Peregrine Run won this race last year (but is now 9lbs higher) making him the only course and distance winner in the field, although Saint Arvans, The Vollan and Gats And Co have all won over this trip elsewhere, whilst Courtland (2 x 2m4½f chases) and The Vollan (2m4f hurdle) have both won on this track.

We've no new headgear on show, no horses moving yard and all bar The Vollan have had a run in the last 16 to 35 days, but The Vollan hasn't been seen since being pulled up at Market Rasen on Boxing Day last year and can be excused if he needs the run.

In terms of previous chase outings under similar conditions, Instant Expert suggests that most will be well suited by the good ground...

...although Killer Clown, Ruthless Article and Organdi are a pretty poor 3 from 29 between on the going. As you'd expect from The Shortlist, Peregrine Run has the best figures under these conditions but it has to be said that apart from the odd decent run here and there, he's not the horse he was in 2018/19 when winning Listed & Grade 3 contests. Mind you, he is 13 now and time isn't his friend.

Killer Clown and Organdi's record over this kind of trip is as bad as their records on good ground and it's time to remove that pair from my calculations, even if the former has landed a couple of Class 2 chases.

If I think Peregrine Run's star is on the wane, but he has the best figures, it's probably worth looking at the place stats for the ten remaining runners to see who might emerge as a contender...

Again, Peregrine Run's numbers are excellent, but the one looking like the one to beat so far is Courtland. Aside from being unexposed in this grade, conditions look ideal for him and he's 3 from 5 under today's jockey, although he is a whopping 12lbs heavier than his last win and 6lbs heavier than his Class 1 near-miss last time out.

He tends to race prominently, but will probably have to tuck in behind expected pace-maker Gats And Co, if the field's last four outings are anything to go by...

...whilst The Vollan and Go On Chez seem destined to be held up for a late run, a tactic which hasn't really been that successful in past races here at Worcester...

Summary

The pace scores suggest that Gats And Co will lead in a race that suits leaders, but I feel he's going to be more a pace-maker/target for the runners just in behind him rather than being a serious contender himself.

He won four chases on the bounce (but is only 4 from 19 in his career) in Feb to June of 2022 taking his mark from 92 to 125 and hasn't looked remotely like winning any of eight races since and with him being some 9lbs wrong at the weights here, I predict a ninth successive loss.

That, of course, opens the door to those racing closest to him, of which the pick has to be Courtland. He comes here in terrific form and was only narrowly beaten at a higher grade last time out. His Instant Expert scores were good and he has a brilliant relationship with today's jockey. 4/1 isn't overly generous, but it's probably about right, so it's Courtland for me here.

Of the others, I wouldn't be surprised to see the 7/1 Hell Red and the 9/2 Brief Times go well, whilst others in with a shout of making the frame (bookies go 4 places) would include (alphabetically) Peregrine Run and Saint Arvans.

Go On Chez is the current 4/1 jt fav along with Courtland, but he was beaten by Brief Times last time out and both face tougher tasks here.

Racing Insights, Friday 18/08/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded just one Irish 'possible'...

...but I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.40 Newbury
  • 3.45 Newbury
  • 4.45 Epsom
  • 4.50 Cork
  • 4.55 Newbury
  • 6.43 Tramore

...from which there's not much to excite me, so I'm going to foocus on the day's highest rated handicap race, the 8.05 Newmarket, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on good ground...

The form horse would appear to be bottom-weight Sudden Ambush who won last time out and is two from three and three from six. As a 3yr old, he's getting a 6lbs weight allowance here as are Finn's Charm and Lose Your Wad.

Bear Force One is two from four, but his recent results look binary (1010) and Finn's Charm, Arqoob, Repertoire & Lose Your Wad have all won at least one of their last five. The entire field have won at least once over this trip, but only Bear Force One has won here at Newmarket, having scored over course and distance way back in July 2020.

LTO winner Sudden Ambush wears a tongue tie for the first time here and is up one class, as is Azano, whilst Repertoire is up two classes despite finishing 8th of 9 at Yarmouth last time out. All bar Arqoob have raced in the last eight weeks or so, but he's been off for 111 days, during which time he has moved from Lucy Wadham's yard and now debuts for William Jarvis.

As well as possibly needing a run, Arqoob is going to have to run better on good ground than he has previously, because Instant Expert highlights the going as one of his weaknesses...

Azano is another with a low win percentage on good ground and he looks very weak right across the board, which isn't too surprising for a horse with just 3 wins from 32 outings. Intellogent and to a lesser extent Lose Your Wad also look pretty weak under these conditions. Sudden Ambush looks decent albeit off a small sample size, whilst Bear Force One looks consistent if unspectacular from a win perspective and he also has decent place stats too...

...where Azano remains weak on class/distance. Bopedro, Bear Force One and Sudden Ambush seem the ones to focus on from Instant Expert and they're all drawn fairly close together in 3, 4 and 6 with Azano the filling in the sandwich in that central cluster that seems to have avoided the lower stalls that our Draw Analyser suggests is a poor place to run from...

...but I'm not entirely convinced by that set of figures, but I wasn't surprised to see that the Pace Analyser show that those races were won by horses keen to get on with things...

...generating the following pace/draw heat map...

...where the mid-drawn hold-up horses aside, the greens are where you'd expect them to be based on the above data, but do we have a mid/high drawn leader in our pack?

This suggests that the pace will come from stalls 3 to 7 with Azano leading the charge, as he has done in ten of his last eleven races. That said, he hasn't really looked like winning any of them and I don't expect that to change here. Finn's Charm looks like the next cab off the rank, but was last of four and 25th of 29 either side of a runner-up finish in the German 2000 Guineas in May and was then beaten by almost 20 lengths last time out, so it's probably not going to be his day either.

My feeling here is that Azano and Finns Charm will tow Sudden Ambush and Bear Force One into the race and that this latter pair will end up being the ones to beat.

Summary

Sudden Ambush and Bear Force One now look the ones to be with here and the early (3.10pm friday) market has them at a best-priced 10/3 fav and 7/1 respectively with Hills and I think that's probably the right way round, although there might not be much in it and the latter might well be the value play here, especially if he drifts any and we can go E/W.

As for one for the frame, I can't put Azano, Finn's Charm or Intellogent forward based on the above. Repertoire and Bopedro look to have too much to do from the back, whilst Lose Your Wad is out of sorts and poorly drawn.  This, almost by default, puts Arqoob in the spotlight and if he gets the 'new trainer bounce' that many runners do get, he's only 3lbs higher than his last win and was in good form over hurdles in the winter. And at 17/2 or bigger later, he mightn't be a bad E/W pick here if the return to Team Jarvis works.

Racing Insights, Thursday 17/08/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.40 Salisbury
  • 4.10 Salisbury
  • 4.35 Leopardstown
  • 6.30 Windsor
  • 8.05 Leopardstown

And although the Racing League is at Windsor on Thursday, the best of the UK races from the free list, despite having a small field, has to be the 4.10 Salisbury, a 6-runner, 3yo+, Group 3, Flat contest over a straight mile on good ground...

This initially looks like two races in one, with me agreeing with the early market in suggesting that the winner and placer(s) come from Regal Reality, Mighty Ulysses and Embesto, whilst Dancing Magic looks out of his depth, despite a 6lbs weight allowance, but let's have a closer look at the whole field...

REGAL REALITY is now 8yrs old and won a Group 3 race last time out, meaning he's now won one in each of the last six years. He won this race back in 2020 making him the only course and distance winner in the field and if not troubled by a 75-day absence, should be right in the mix despite a 3lb penalty for winning the Diomed at Epsom.

CHICHESTER makes a debut for the Johnston yard two months after his last run for Keith Dalgleish, which saw him win a Listed race at York. He's in good nick with tewo wins and two runner-up finishes from five runs this year, but it has to be said that his best form is at Class 2 and on the A/W. Was well beaten in a Gr3 at Sandown two starts ago.

MIGHTY ULYSSES won a Listed race at Newmarket last July thre weeks after finishing closer than 5th of 11 might suggest in the St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. He was, in fact, only 0.8 lengths behind the winner in a blanket finish where two lengths separated 1st and 7th. Was well beaten in a Gr2 race at Ascot a month ago, but can be excused on his first outing in 11 months. He should come on for that run as he drops in quality and wears cheekpieces for the first time.

POGO is a keen front-runner who made the frame in three group 2 races and won twice at Group 3 in a sustained run of form from August '21 to July '22. He was a runner-up another Gr2 this time last year, before winning one at Newmarket in October, but clearly needed the run when 10th of 12 at Ascot in June and was only 3rd of 6 at Newmarket last time out. Much will depend on whether he's allowed to dominate.

DANCING MAGIC is a 9-race maiden whose best effort was on his third start when a runner-up in a Listed event at Haydock almost a year ago. This will be his eighth attempt at winning a Class 1 contest and based on his 5th of 6, beaten by 9 lengths, in a Listed race at Newbury last month, he won't be ending the day in the winners' enclosure.

EMBESTO is a lightly-raced 3yr old who'll be aided by a weight allowance here. He has two wins and a runner-up finish from his three career starts to date, but that 2nd of 6 in a Listed event at HQ last month is the pick of his runs after 2 wins (1 x maiden, 1 x novice) at Class 5. There could/should be more to come but he's a bit of an unknown quantity.

Feature of the day is Instant Expert...

...and it suggests that Regal Reality and Chichester might not like the underfoot conditions. it's true that the former does prefer it a little quicker, but he has won on good to soft and soft ground, so there's no real reason why he wouldn't 'get' good ground, whilst Chichester also likes it quicker and is better on the A/W. Dancing Magic's poor record stands out like a sore thumb on these win stats, whilst the place date says...

...that Pogo might well have a good chance of making the frame here, as he's well versed under today's conditions. Again Chichester and Dancing Magic look weak and this is probably a 4-way battle for the money.

I've got to admit that the following draw data...

...surprised me a little, as I wasn't expecting any advantage from the draw in a small field over a straight mile, but those drawn highest seem to have struggled to win as often as those closer to the rail, so that's another nail in the coffin of Dancing Magic/Chichester's chances, which is just further affirmation of how unlikely it'd be for them to win. If we then consider how those races have been won, they'd really need to favour front-runners if Pogo is going to gatecrash the three original horses I expected to be first home, so let's check the pace stats...

...which is good news indeed for Pogo. Hold-up horses haven't fared well at all from a win or place perspective which would be yet another reason not to back Chichester...

..and it's not ideal for Mighty Ulysses.

Summary

I started by saying that the winner and placer(s) would come from Regal Reality, Mighty Ulysses and Embesto whilst Dancing Magic looks out of his depth, despite a 6lbs weight allowance and whilst I think this might still be the case, I've also shown enough reasons to ditch Chichester but to promote Pogo to the rank of 'possibles'.

Mighty Ulysses now looks marginally weaker than Regal Reality and Embesto, so I fear that he's the one of the trio most at risk, especially if he's held up and Pogo pours it on early. Pogo's best chance of winning/making the frame is to try and get out sharpish, but I think Regal Reality might just go with him and at 4/1, the old boy would be my tentative/marginal pick here.

It's going to be competitive, despite the small field and any one of the four could win/make the frame, so I won't be putting too much money down. Only Dancing Magic is at backable E/W odds, but even 25/1 couldn't tempt me!

Racing Insights, Wednesday 16/08/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.20 Salisbury
  • 3.35 Yarmouth
  • 4.20 Beverley
  • 5.25 Beverley
  • 6.30 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have only highlighted the following two yards in good recent form...

14-day form...

30-day form...

Of the nine races highlighted above the first of the free cards is for a Listed event, but I'm not wild about lightly raced 2yr olds, so next best is actually the 4.20 Beverley, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 7½f on good to firm ground...

Reputation is considerably older than the rest of the field, but he is our sole LTO winner here, yet he might need the run after a break of almost a year. Autumn Festival, Metahorse, Craven and Ring of Gold all had top three finishes with the latter denoted as a fast finisher : perhaps he needs to get going sooner!

The top three in the weights (Autumn Festival, Mudamer and On The River) all drop down from a recent run at Class 3 and Mudamer is the only one of the three yet to win over course and distance. In fact none of the rest of the field have achieved this, but Beltane has at least woin here at Beverley over 1m½f back in June, two starts ago.

We know that Reputation has been away for a good while, but apart from Ron O's 103-day absence, the rest of the runners here have all raced in the last six weeks.

Instant Expert says that a few of these are shy of wins under expected conditions...

...although they do seem to have the knack of making the frame...

From those numbers above, I'd be a little concerned about Beltane's inability at Class 4 and the fact that Satin Snake just doesn't win on turf. Ron O is some 18lbs higher than his last/only turf win, but he has won the A/W recently off just 2lbs lower than today, whilst Craven would probably prefer the ground to be closer to good than it is to firm. Top weight Autumn Festival looks the one to beat on those figures above, but stall 11 of 11 might not be helpful, let's check...

The draw stats are actually a little misleading here, as if we split the field into thirds ie low, mid and high draw, then a high draw looks favourable...

...but stall by stall suggests that whilst stalls 9 & 10 have done well, those drawn 11 or 12 have struggled...

...and the PRB data suggests a lower draw is better...

I'm going to mark that as inconclusive and focus upon the pace data from those races above, as I've got it in my head that this is where the race will be won or lost and those races above have gone as follows...

...with front-running horses definitely the ones to be on and this focus on pace rather than draw is also reflected in the pace/draw heat map...

So, who will lead? Well, we don't actually know, but by looking at how the field have approached their most recent outings...

...you'd probably want to be focusing on the upper half of that table.

Summary

So, we're looking for those in the upper half of the pace chart who should enjoy conditions here and who also come here in some semblance of reasonable form.

Beltane looks like the pace-maker, he gets good to firm ground and has two wins and two places from his last five runs, so plenty of positives there. he hasn't got a great record at Class 4, but that's probably why he's 13/2 from Bet365 (the only book open at 3.50pm Tuesday), but he'd be in my top three for this one, as would On The River, who'll also be up with the pace.

He has won four of his last seven and won here over course and distance two starts ago. He's good at Class 4 and at this venue, he's down in class but would probably prefer the ground to be softer. The doubts over the ground are again reflected in his price, as he too is priced at 13/2 in the early market.

My final one for the frame is probably top weight Autumn Festival, he's also likely to be up with the pace, scored really well on Instant Expert (especially for a place) and is 2lbs lower than his last winning mark. He has made the frame in two of his last three starts, both at Class 3; he's down in class here and a pound lighter than LTO and at 8/1 would be my E/W play.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 15/08/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...and as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 4.00 Nottingham
  • 4.30 Nottingham
  • 7.00 Newcastle
  • 7.15 Chelmsford

Mayfair Gold has green for going, class, course and distance and she runs on one of our free races, so let's see how she might fare in the 7.15 Chelmsford, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ fillies' A/W handicap over a left handed 1m2f on standard polytrack...

Moonspirit won on just her second outing LTO, whilst Mayfair Gold and Hey Lyla both finished second, but none of their other rivals made the frame. After that recent win, Moonspirit now makes a handicap debut, as does fellow 3 yr old Rosa Chinensis who drops back to Class 5 after one run at Class 2.

In fact only the top four on the card are older than 3 yrs old, which means they're disadvantaged here to the tune of some 8lbs, but all of them bar Tahasun do at least take a drop in class here. Smiling Sunflower wears blinkers for the first time here and featured runner Mayfair Gold is hooded for a second time.

Top weight Croachill has won over a similar trip at Doncaster, whilst both Tahasun and Mayfair Gold are former course and distance winners with the latter also a runner-up over track and trip last time out.

That was three weeks ago and most of this field have had at least one run in the last 2.5 to 6.5 weeks, aside from bottom weight Creme Chantilly, who now returns from an 11-week rest following a poor run (last of 11, 12 lengths down) at Leicester, although she did actually won here over a mile on her second start back in October 2022.

That course win can be seen here on Instant Expert, of course...

My main take-away from those graphics above are that whilst this isn't a great race, it could well be a competitive affair and that both Smiling Sunflower and Valkyrian look weak. I'm happy to 'eliminate them from my enquiries' as we continue our analysis. As you'd expect from her position on The Shortlist, Mayfair Gold scores well here.

She is, however, drawn widest of all, so we'll need to consult the Geegeez Draw Analyser to see whether stall 10 is likely to be a help or a hindrance or if it really shouldn't matter...

...and the inference from the above is that the further away from stall 1 a horse is drawn, the progressively worse the chances of winning become, which should be great news for Creme Chantilly, but not good at all for Mayfair Gold. However, closer inspection of the stall by stall data from those races...

...shows that horses drawn higher than stall nine in those races won 20 of 185 races at a rate of 10.81%, which is on par or better with most of the other stalls, although the three lowest drawn horses have won most often overall at a rate of 12.33%. Yet the fact that stall 10 can outperform stall 3 suggests that Chelmsford races are decided by race tactics aka pace more often than they are decided by the draw, especially over trips longer than a mile and our Pace Analyser says that those races above have been won as follows...

Leaders win and place most often, prominent runners win almost as often as leaders and win more often than mid-division/hold-up runners combined, so form a win perspective we want a horse keen to get on with things, whilst for the places, we could do with avoiding runners who tend to be held-up like the already discarded Valkyrian. This is, of course, based on how the field has run in their last few races...

Summary

Moonspirit, Mayfair Gold and Hey Lyla bring the best form to the table and Mayfair Gold scored best on Instant Expert. I wasn't too concerned/interested in the draw, but the pace stats hand the initiative to Moonspirit and whilst there's probably not going to be much between them, I think she'll just have too much for Mayfair Gold.

There were no odds available at 4.25pm Monday, so I'll have to check back later, but I suspect the pick will be around the 9/4 mark which might not offer too much value. Tissue prices about Mayfair Gold suggest that she could be around 11/2, which might actually be worth a small stakes bet; I think she has more chance than 11/2.

Hey Lyla won't be much longer than Mayfair Gold in the betting and that's not long enough for me to have and E/W bet (I like to bet E/W at 8's or longer generally), but if you wanted a bit of a punt based on trust/faith more than anything else, then Creme Chantilly might be better than double-digit odds, especially if she gets away well.

Racing Insights, Monday 14/08/23

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Sorry for the extremely late edition today, I'm up at my caravan near the Lakes and we've had power issues during Sunday and this morning, so I've been trying to put something together without much success. The power is now (10.00am) is currently back on, but we don't know for how long, so I'm going to have to be quick!

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 6.10 Hamilton
  • 7.30 Windsor
  • 7.50 Ballinrobe
  • 8.20 Ballinrobe

The second of the two UK free races looks marginally better than the other, but it's not a great race that awaits us in the 7.30 Windsor, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo flat handicap over 1m3½f  around the figure of eight on good/good to firm ground...

Portoro won last time out and Goblet of Fire seeks to complete a hat-trick today. Fullforward has won just once in fifteen starts with three further places, whilst the other four runners are winless in a combined twenty races, where they have made the frame on just two occasions between them!

Twoforthegutter, Irezumi, Amma Aurelia and Anticipating all take a drop in class here with the latter pair both making a handicap debut three weeks after their last outing when well beaten in the same 1m2f maiden contest here at Windsor.

Portoro won on handicap debut (1m2f, Salisbury) last time out a month ago and now has a second handicap run, but the first iuting for his new yard. Goblet of Fire has been off the track the longest, but he last ran 33 days ago, so there shouldn't be any fitness issues around.

None of the group have won at either track nor distance, although Anna Aureila did make the frame in one of her three runs here (all her three career runs have been here!). The handicapper only rates this field with a 5lb spread from top to bottom and here are the (scarce) Instant Expert stats...

Not much to go on admittedly, but another tick for hat-trick seeking Goblet of Fire with Portoro also of interest, but he'll find it tougher here raised 13lbs for a 9 length win on handicap debut. Elsewhere not much to talk about, but Fullforward has made the frame in 3 of 7 over a similar trip, but is still 5lbs higher than his sole win nine races and ten months ago, but he was second at Lingfield last time out off today's mark. No Diggity was fourth, 2.5 lengths further back, that day and he was a winner over 1m4f at Brighton last Thursday.

Over a trip this long with both left and right handed bends, the draw really shouldn't be a factor here and although at first glance, the stats would suggest low draws fare badly here...

...that data is somewhat skewed by an inexplicably poor set of results from stall 1, which is where Irezumi will now find himself after the two withdrawals, but I doubt that's likely to make or break his race, whereas the pace might!

Pace/tempo is massively important here at Windsor, as this track tends to suit those willing to get on with things early and those 110+ races are no exception...

That data says you can make the frame from anywhere, but for a better chance of leading you need to be prominent or leading, which is a positive for Fullforward, based on how the field have approached their last few outings...

Summary

I think the two LTO winners, Goblet of Fire and Portoro are the best two horses here and bring the best form to the table. Their rivals bring no winning form with them and I see little reason why one of them would be the winner here. Of the two 'form' horses, Goblet of Fire is in the better form and has a better pace profile. He's 'only' up 6lbs for his win with Portoro up almost a stone, so it's Goblet of Fire for me.

We're not getting rich at 11/4, but it seems a fair price to me for a runner who looks best suited. Portoro might be undone by the pace and with most firms still paying three places, the front-running Fastforward might be a viable E/W option at 8/1, especially if he's afforded a soft lead.

Apologies again for the late posting, hopefully it was worth the wait!

Racing Insights, Saturday 12/08/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...but they have only generated the following runners for me to look at...

...although you can't say this combo isn't hot right now! Thankfully, as always, we also have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 2.30 Newmarket
  • 3.00 Haydock
  • 3.40 Newmarket
  • 4.55 Kilbeggan
  • 6.45 Lingfield
  • 7.55 Kilbeggan

...and although it would now make perfect sense to look at Sleven in the 2.30 Newmarket, I'm not that into nursery races if truth be told, so I'm going to have a crack at one of the two Group 3 races above, the Rose of Lancaster Stakes. On your racecards, it's the 3.00 Haydock, a 7-runner, Group 3 flat contest for runners aged 3 and over. The trip is a left-handed 1m2½f on good ground and here's how they'll line up...

All seven raced in Class 1 company last time out in the past eight weeks and all bar King of Conquest have won over a similar trip to this one. Phantom Flight landed a 1m Novice event here on just his third outing back in May 2022, but that makes him the only previous Haydock winner, although Savvy Victory is the only other to have been here before and he was 3rd of 8 in a similar 1m Novice event back in September 2021.

King of Conquest won three on the bounce before finishing 6th in the Wolferton at Ascot and now wears cheekpieces for the first time, whilst it's a yard debut for El Drama who has moved from Roger Varian since his last run. Al Aasy, Savvy Victory and Midnight Mile all won last time out and Al Aasy is two from three whilst Midnight Mile is three from five. Classic Causeway has been last of six and sixth of eight on his two UK starts and although a decent performer in the USA, has now lost nine on the bounce, whilst El Drama is winless in seven and this pair are probably the weakest in the field.

Midnight Mile is the sole filly in the contest, as well as being the only 3 yr old and she receives a very handy 11lbs weight allowance, which should give her a really chance of continuing her fine form she showed at York recently and she scores pretty well on Instant Expert, but not as good as former group 1 runner-up Al Aasy...

...who looks to have ideal conditions ahead of him. El Drama, Phantom Flight and Savvy Victory are a combined 2 from 21 in Class 1 races and I'm not convinced any of them will turn that stat into 3 from 24 here.

The draw stats for this kind of race have suggested those further away from the rail have had the best of it...

...which isn't the best news for Phantom Flight and Al Aasy, but none of these would be out of it purely on the draw, as long as they were up with (or even set) the pace, as those races above have gone like this...

Sadly, there's very little early pace in the race and the outsider Classic Causeway is likely to be allowed a free run in the safe knowledge he's probably not good enough to see the job out...

Behind the leader, the pace scores are much of a muchness with likely favourite Al Aasy having to come past everyone if he wants to win.

Summary

Al Aasy is the 'best' horse in the race and has conditions to suit, but isn't particularly well favoured by pace or draw. That said, Classic Causeway aside, there's not much danger of him being cut adrift early on and his class should see him through. Whether 15/8 represents any value, who knows? I suspect that's about right here.

But, if you're not backing the fav, where are we going? Well, not Classic Causeway or El Drama on form, nor El Drama, Phantom Flight and Savvy Victory on Class 1 results, which leaves us with the 3/1 King of Conquest and the 6/1 Midnight Mile. The former was in great form before finishing sixth in the Wolferton, whilst the latter seemed to have plenty in hand when landing a Listed race by 2.5 lengths at York recently.

I suspect there'll be little between this pair and you could go either way, but at 6/1 with the 11lbs weight allowance, Midnight Mile is my marginal pick as main danger to Al Aasy. Some firms are paying three places here and if she drifts any, she could be a nice E/W prospect.

Racing Insights, Friday 11/08/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded an interesting pair of qualifiers for this Friday...

...whilst I can also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 4.00 Brighton
  • 4.45 Tipperary
  • 5.10 Thirsk
  • 5.40 Haydock
  • 6.15 Haydock
  • 7.15 Wexford

...and I think I'll have a look at Equiano Springs from the H4C) report in the 8.20 Newmarket. He has won 4 of 6 races over 6f on the Rowley course and is 2 from 2 over this course and distance which is a straight 6f on the July course. This Class 4 race has eleven runners aged 3 and over and they'll be racing on good ground...

My initial thoughts were that this could be a shootout between the oldest runner, top weight and featured horse Equiano Springs and the bottom weight 3yo filly Lady Dreamer, but let's see.

Golden Duke and Equiano Springs both won last time out with the latter scoring here over track and trip at this class. Champagne Sarah is 112 in her last three and all bar Rathbone, Tolstoy and Dashing Dick have won at least one of their four outings, but this trio have lost their last 13, 18 and 16 races respectively and that alone is enough for me to say no, thank you!

Of the eight that remain, Prospering and fast-finisher Distinguished Lady both drop down a class for a race that will be the latter's debut for Darryll Holland, having left Alice Haynes' yard in the last month. LTO winner Golden Duke goes the other way and steps up from Class 5.

Ice Cool Harry makes just a second handicap appearance, as does Lady Dreamer and as 3 yr olds they receive a useful 4lbs weight allowance, as do Distinguished Lady, Champagne Sarah (first-time cheekpieces here) and Prospering.

The entire field have raced in the last six weeks already, but all eight under consideration have been rested for at least a fortnight. Equiano Springs is 2 from 2 over 6f on the July course and he's the only previous course winner, but all of his rivals bar Flying Secret have at least one win over today's trip.

Equiano Springs, as you'd expect, dominates Instant Expert...

...but there are some good shout on place form from the likes of Distinguished Lady, Golden Duke and Lady Dreamer...

...and at this stage, I'd expect them to be the biggest danger to the top weight runner, Equiano Springs, whose berthing in stall 2 looks quite favourable, according to our Draw Analyser...

...although there's not a huge deal in it and it's likely to be the pace approach that settles this one...

...with the pace stats and the pace/draw heatmap suggesting that if Equiano is up with the pace, he stands a great chance here yet again...

...so if he's averaging around 3.00 or even better, then he's surely the one to beat...

Summary

Featured horse Equiano Springs has to be the one to beat here and having gone through the analysis above, the only surprise to me is that he can be backed at 4/1. The tissues range from 7/2 to 9/2, so 4's is about right, although I see him as a 3/1 or even shorter bet, so I'm on.

Lady Dreamer is 6/1 second favourite and she's probably right to be there, but I think Champagne Sarah is very interesting at an eachway-backable 8/1. The pace might do away with Distinguished Lady's chances, but if the race falls apart then her 14/1 odds might begin to look very big indeed.