Tag Archive for: Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 22/07/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.30 Curragh
  • 2.00 Curragh
  • 3.20 Ripon
  • 3.35 Newbury
  • 4.35 Cartmel
  • 7.15 Doncaster

If I'm totally honest, I don't really fancy of Saturday's racing at all, including the ten races above, but the show must go on! To that end, I'm going to head to Town Moor and have a quick look at a very open looking 7.45 Doncaster, a 12-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to soft ground. The track is soft in places and more rain is expected, but here's the line-up...

Game Set won last time out and the sole three year old in the field has on both his previous runs to date and gets a useful 7lbs weight allowance on his handicap debut, but he is up two classes here.

Sir Thomas Gresham, Hickory, Brazen Bolt, Mudamer and Maywake were all runners-up LTO and most of the field have been in decent form of late.

The top two on the card, Gweedore and Atrium both take a drop in class, but Brazen Bolt, Danzan, Mudamer, Maywake and Tribal Wisdom are all up one grade.

Only Sir Thomas Gresham, Mudamer and bottom weight Tribal Wisdom have yet to win over this trip and Game Set is a course and distance winner. Atrium and Woven have also won here at Doncaster before, over a mile and 6f respectively.

Sir Thomas Gresham returns from a nine week break, but the remainder have all raced in the past month with top weight Gweedore having a run last Friday in a good race at York and Instant Expert suggests that he'll relish the underfoot conditions expected here...

The field is short on Class 3 wins with Gweedore, Woven and Danzan sharing a rather mediocre 4 from 33 record. Danzan does look rather out of his depth here across the board and Maywake has a poor record at the trip.

To be fair, there isn't much green on that chart generally, so let's check the place stats...

...which look a lot better and also show why I think this is a fairly open-looking contest. Unsurprisingly, when broken down into sectors/thirds, there appears to be little if any draw bias...

...but the PRB3 stats do imply that those drawn lowest have fared better than average...

Pace, however, is another matter, as there's a definite pattern formed...

...whereby those setting the early pace have invariably been swallowed up by the pack. Leaders make the frame most often, but have a terrible record of turning places in to wins at just 12.5%, whilst those not setting the pace have 36 wins from just 97 placed finishes at a 37.1% conversion rate. All of which doesn't look like good news for Gweedore, Danzan and Maywake...

Summary (as of 4pm)

Not an easy race to call and the soft option would be for me to say "back Game Set" and the reasoning would be obvious, he's in form, gets a weight allowance, will race prominently and has won over course and distance. If I can get 7/2 or bigger, then I could well be tempted into a bet. Sadly I reckon he'll be quite a bit shorter and I'd be wary at sub-3/1 odds about a horse we know little about.

Sir Thomas Gresham interests me, though. He's lightly raced for an 8 yr old, has a low draw, will race prominently and is invariably on the premises. The oddschecker tissue suggests 8/1 and I'd certainly have some of that as an E/W bet if available and you could make a case for Hickory, who too is lightly raced, but has won three of six. He wasn't beaten by far last time out and should be involved again here. His OC tissue price is only 6/1, though, so no E/W bet there.

It's a very open race, but these would be the three I'd want to focus on.

4.45pm odds update : My three are priced at 5/2, 9/2 and 7/2 on bet365's opening show, so the oddschecker forecast wasn't great and I'm not going to get involved at those odds. Should any drift, then I could well have a bet later.

Racing Insights, Friday 21/07/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are fairly restrictive but have still produced a trio of qualifiers...

...with Corinthia Knight of immediate interest. Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards and for Friday they are...

  • 1.50 Newbury
  • 4.00 Nottingham
  • 4.10 Newbury
  • 5.55 Hamilton
  • 6.10 Kilbeggan
  • 7.30 Newmarket

And I think I'll turn to the highest class/most valuable race from the free list, which is the 4.10 Newbury, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over a left-handed 1m5½f on good ground and here's how they'll line up...

My initial thoughts were that this might well be a two-horse race between the 3pm Hills' 11/4 joint favourites, Spring Fever and Flower of Dubai, but that any of their rivals, bar Tashi (who looks weak), could be contenders for the places, so let's dive in...

Night Sparkle and Spring Fever both won last time out and have won two of their last three outings, whilst Flash Bardot also won LTO and is two from four. Flower of Dubai is two from five and only Tashi is winless in more than seven races, having now lost her ,last twelve in a run stretching back over two years. She has won just once in twenty-three attempts and I'm already saying that she's not for me here despite wearing a hood for the first time. It would have to have magical powers, I think!

Secret Shadow and Flower of Dubai both drop down a class and the latter will fancy her chances after only going down by a length at Haydock last time out. Spring Fever, Divina Grace and Alba Longa are, however, up one class, whilst Flash Bardot's win last week was at Class 5.

That was only last Thursday and she's turned back out quickest of these nine. Most of her rivals have raced in the last six weeks or so, but Secret Shadow has been rested for three months.

She is, however, the only previous course and distance winner in the field. None of the others have won here before (mind you, Haseefah's run here in December 2021 is the only other appearance by any of the field) and only top weight Night Sparkle has scored over a similar trip.

Three of the field have already won on good ground and three have won at this grade, according to Instant Expert...

...which sadly doesn't carry as much data as I generally hope for. It does, however, highlight the wretched form of Tashi and suggests that Haseefah might struggle in this grade. It also points out that both Night Sparkle and Spring Fever are now rated 10lbs higher than their last wins, whilst both Flash Bardot and Alba Longa are carrying considerably more weight than when last victorious.

The place stats don't shed too much more light on this field...

...but they do suggest that Divina Grace likes the good ground better than her 0 from 3 record might imply, whilst Hassefah's form at this level isn't as bad as it first seemed and whilst it's almost a year since Secret Shadow last won, she has been running in much better races than this and looks the pick of the pack purely on the data above.

I'm normally fairly dismissive of the effects of the draw over trips of 1m2f and beyond as I believe that there's ample time to undo a 'bad' draw and here at Newbury in races of 1.5 miles and further, it looks like I'd be right in those assertion...

The apparent success of the lower drawn horses is a massively skewed by a freak number of winners from stall 2 and based on that data above, there's only stall 1 that has struggled to make the frame, which is further good news for the jt favs, who will emerge from stalls 5 & 6. They're drawn side-by-side but if they're going to be the first two home, they're likely to be a fair distance apart during the actual race itself, as I'd expect Spring Fever to be up with the pace, whilst Flower of Dubai tends to be produced quite late, if recent outings are anything to go by...

If we then revisit those races used for the draw stats, we can see that those setting the pace here often become a target for the chasing pack to aim for and they do generally catch and beat those leaders...

...which must be advantage Flower of Dubai in that battle of the jt favs.

Summary

I do think that the 3pm joint favs Flower of Dubai and Spring Fever are the best two runners in the race, but the hold-up approach by the former tips the scales in her favour for me, so I'm with Flower of Dubai for this one. Bet365 have opened up since I wrote the pre-amble and go 7/2 about Flower of Dubai and whilst that's not over generous, it's at least fair.

Spring Fever should still be good enough to hold on and make the frame, but who joins them? Well, I could make a case for several, but on an ability vs risk vs reward/value basis, I think I'd take a small E/W punt on Secret Shadow, who looks far too long at 20/1 with Bet365. Hills go 11/1 about her and that's more realistic in my opinion.

Racing Insight, Thursday 20/07/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.35 Chepstow
  • 4.55 Hamilton
  • 5.15 Leopardstown
  • 6.35 Killarney
  • 7.00 Epsom
  • 8.40 Epsom

And whilst it's not the best race of the day or even the best of the free list, I think the 4.55 Hamilton race offers us the most in terms of Instant Expert from that list of races. It's an 8-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m3f on good to soft ground. The ground is softer in places and thunderstorms are expected, so it might well be heading towards soft by the off..

It's not a good race, but it will have a winner, so whilst I'd never advise spending too long on a race like this, it doesn't mean we shouldn't look at all. Unsurprisingly, none of these won last time out, but both Can Can Girl and Spanish Hustle made the frame and the latter did win his penultimate race. Lochnaver also won two starts ago and Blazer Two's win three races back is the only other win on display in the recent form lines of the entire field.

The class move information is a little misleading today, as The Navigator's run LTO at Class 2 was over hurdles, but he is still two classes lower than his last Flat run in April. Hezmie is, however, down three classes from finishing last of eight at Pontefract nine days after finishing last of eight at Doncaster at Class 5, whilst Lochnaver drops back a class after defeat at Hamilton and having finished second and then first in her last two at this level, she'll feel more at home in this company.

Blazer Two makes a yard debut here after joining Lucinda Russell's small but relatively successful string of Flat runners (96% of her runners over the last ten years have been in National Hunt contests, but she's 13 from 69 on the Flat since the start of last season including 12 from 51 at Class 5/6).

The Navigator has won over this trip at Carlisle and Ghostly has won here over 1m4f, whilst Spanish Hustle and Lochnaver are both former course and distance winners. There should be any rustiness to shake off here, as The Navigator is the longest rested and he was seen in action less than eight weeks ago; Can Can Girl and Hezmie have already had a run this month.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, adds some more meat to the bones with news of three good to soft winners and a couple of soft ground victors, whilst all bar Hezmie have at least one Class 6 victory to their names. She hasn't actually raced this low, but has won at Class 5, albeit on the A/W, whilst The Navigator and Can Can Girl have both won on turf at Class 5. Smart Lass actually won at Class 4 in February 2022, which would be great had she not failed to win any of 13 races since!

That run of defeats is why Smart Lass is now rated 7lbs below her last win, so she could be dangerously weighted here considering her liking for soft ground. Spanish Hustle's best form has come on good to firm ground, so he might struggle here again, whilst Lochnaver's trio of wins at this venue is interesting. The place data doesn't really help many of these on the going front...

...and The Navigator is probably the pick of the bunch in a race where I don't expect the draw to have too much effect, based on previous contests...

...but if we can identify ourselves a front-runner, that might help, because those races above have unfolded like this...

We log how all horses run in the UK to enable us to make a reasoned estimate as to how they might run again and here's how they've gone in their last four outings...

...suggesting the early pace will come from the three at the top of that list. Of that trio, I'm not too keen on Ghostly right now, even at 6lbs below his last winning mark. He has been out of sorts for some while and didn't run well here last month, but I do like Lochnaver and Blazer Two from the front.

Summary

Lochnaver and Blazer Two head the pace chart and both are interesting here. Lochnaver has been in good form of late and loves it here at Hamilton, whilst Blazer Two has moved to Lucinda Russell's  yard recently. She does really well with her small string of low-grade flat runners and I'm intrigued at how quickly she's sending this one back out. he's only a pound higher than his last win and has never been ridden by a jockey as good as Joe Fanning before. Joe, of course, is a master at assessing pace.

To this pair, I'm adding the hold-up type, The Navigator. He's down in class, scored well on Instant Expert and hold-up horses have done pretty well here under similar conditions and I think he could be involved late on in this one.

And that's my three from eight. To be honest, they're all much of a muchness and the early market would appear to agree...

I don't really have an overwhelming urge to stick my neck out for any of them, but if pushed, Blazer Two might be the one. No E/W interest from me in this contest, though, so watch Smart Lass now go and put a shift in!

 

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 18/07/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

And we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.35 Beverley
  • 7.30 Nottingham
  • 8.20 Killarney
  • 9.00 Nottingham

The contest between the two Southwell runners from TS should be the one to focus on from a Class perspective, but it's only a 5-runner that looks like being a three horse race, so we'll tackle the last race of the night, the 9.00 Nottingham, a moderate-looking, 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m½f on soft ground...

Not much recent winning form on display here, but both Star Zinc and Jack Daniel won their penultimate outings, whilst Calypso has been knocking on the door with a recent run of form reading 2332. He, along with Classic Speed and Cariad will benefit from an 8lb allowance as the trio of three year olds in this race, with the latter receiving between 10 and 22lbs from her rivals.

She is the only runner stepping up in class here and is one of two females in the race, the other being the top weight Zarabanda. Lion's Dream, Dandy Maestro, Star Zinc and Classic Speed all drop down a class and the latter makes just a secoing handicap appearance almost 10 weeks after his last run.

None of his rivals have been off as long, as they've all raced in the last seven weeks with Cariad having been seen as recently as last Wednesday at Yarmouth; she'll find today's soft ground far different than the seaside good to firm from last time out!

Lion's Dream, Calypso and Classic Speed have yet to win over a similar trip to this one and our sole course winner, Dandy Maestro, has a win and a runner-up finish (2 starts ago) from two efforts over course and distance.

Instant Expert has a limited amount of data, but it does highlight that Jack Daniel is the sole soft ground winner and also one of just three Class 5 flat victors in this field...

...and he looks the pick of the bunch on those albeit small numbers. Such is the lack of relevant data, we should consider the place stats to hopefully suggest who else might like the conditions...

...and I'd probably say Dandy Maestro's hat was now firmly in the ring too. he's drawn centrally in stall 5 just outside Jack Daniel, so it'll now be useful to see if that's a positive or a negative, based on previous past contests under similar conditions here at Nottingham.

The initial indications are that a low draw should be avoided if possible...

...but the PRB3, stall-by-stall and place data seem to suggest that there'll not be a great deal in it from a draw perspective...

Stall 2 doesn't look great, but there's no reason why just one stall should perform so badly, so I'm going to treat that as an anomaly here and move on to see what if any pace is likely to be in the race and if we look at the field's last four outings, we see that the likes of Jack Daniel and Lion's Dream are the most likely front-runners, whilst Star Zinc will probably be the back marker in the early stages...

...and if we look back at those 60-plus races from the draw data, we find that those setting the pace have done best here...

...which is great news for Jack Daniel and Lion's Dream and with a central draw, leading will certainly be the best policy for Jack Daniel...

Dandy Maestro would be best advised to follow Jack Daniel and run like he did here two starts ago, when a runner-up in a higher grade.

Summary

Jack Daniel ticks the most boxes for me, he won two starts ago and has won over this trip. Soft ground won't be an issue and he has the ideal pace/draw setup to score here. The tissue forecast of 11/2 would be very nice indeed, but I suspect we'll have to take a point of more off that price. Dandy Maestro is interesting as a possible E/W pick and the tissue prices of 10/1 do materialise, then it's a yes from me, I wouldn't go lower than 8's on this one.

The biggest danger to either/both of them is the 3yr old Calypso who comes here in fine form (2332) and has that useful weight allowance. Much will depend on how he handles soft ground for the first time, but he should be in the mix here.

Good luck, however you play this one and a quick heads-up that I'm away all day Tuesday, so my next column will appear on Wednesday for Thursday's racing, where Instant Expert will be our free feature.

Racing Insights, Monday 17/07/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.35 Ayr
  • 5.50 Killarney
  • 8.20 Killarney
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

I don't really do Irish racing, as most of you know and the Ayr race is a 7-runner novice event where the field of 2 yr olds have a total of ten races between them. This hardly builds up a reliable pace profile, so we're off to the 8.30 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard tapeta...

The indications from Bet365 at 6pm Sunday were that it was a three-horse race (other bookies say four)...

...but if one was to fail we might have a nicely-priced E/W prospect, especially with most firms paying four places so let's see...

At 100/1 in places, I'm just tempted to discard Thunder Sun from the off, but let's crack on with a field with no LTO winners, although Bill Plumb is two from three and Rogue de Vega has a gold and two silvers from hios three career starts. Caesar's Pearl won two starts ago, but we're a bit light of decent form here and Araifjan's chances of ending a 12-race cold spell won't be helped by a step up in class.

Mohareb, Blue Flame, Sergeant Pep and rank outsider Thunder Flame all step down a class here, whilst it's a double drop for top weight Belle Fourche in a race that sees the in-form Rogue de Vega make a handicap debut.

Blue Flame has already won here at Wolverhampton over 7f, whilst Belle Fourche, Bill Plumb, Sergeant Pep, Murbih and Araifjan are former course and distance winners. Of the other half dozen runners, Mohareb, Asadjumeirah and Caesar's Pearl have won over this trip on another track.

The top two on the card, Belle Fourche & Mohareb return from breaks of 231 & 128 days respectively. Bill Plumb has been off for almost ten weeks, but the others have all been in action in the last eight weeks with Asadjumeirah and Erosion Risk having raced this month already.

We have four three year olds in the field in the shape of Rogue de Vega, Sergeant Pep, Caesar's pearl and Erosion Risk and they get a 5lb weight allowance, which should be very useful especially for the in-form handicap debutant Rogue de Vega.

Instant Expert's lowdown on this field's past A/W records show seven former standard going winners and five Class 5 winners as well as the course and distance winners from earlier. Changing the criteria will also give you three Class 3 winners and three to have scored at Class 4...

...and it's definitely the top half of the card that catches the eye, aside from Mohareb. He's already a no from me, based on the above, as are Araifjan & Erosion Risk and if we did exclude Thunder Sun, we're left with eight of our original twelve. We've omitted runners from stalls 2, 3, 4 and 12, so if Sod's Law is anything to go by, the following draw stats will tell me to look for low drawn runners!

I've gone back as far as I needed to get at least 100 past similar contests and thankfully getting a low draw isn't the be all and end all, but high draws can be a struggle...

If we look at the PRB3 stats, then we're advised that the first seven stalls are the place to be...

...and then we need to look at our daily feature pace! Those 110+ races above have tended to go to those displaying good early pace...

Leaders win more than their fair share of contests here, but the data above suggests that prominent runners rein them in late on. Now if Instant Expert wants us to look at horses with lower saddle cloth numbers (1-7?) and those drawn 1 to 7, that's only Bill Plumb and Rogue de Vega. Hmmm, what if either of those have a pace score of around 3.00 or higher? Let's see...

Summary

It's Rogue de Vega for me here and 5/1 looks more than fair about an unexposed, in-form three year old receiving a weight allowance. He's drawn well and has a good pace profile and although only three races in, has yet to run a bad one.

Of the others at the top of the market, I do like Bill Plumb for similar reasons to the selection, but I don't like him quite as much and 4/1 is too short for an E/W bet. Sergeant Pep looks too long at 10's with bet365 and would be a decent E/W pick at that price, but I'm not really keen on anything else.

Racing Insights, Saturday 15/07/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 3.10 York
  • 3.30 Ascot
  • 3.52 Chester
  • 4.27 Chester
  • 4.45 Navan
  • 5.05 Salisbury

And despite the obvious pull of the Appleby/Buick partnership, I want to move away from HQ after two posts from there this week already. So, I'm staying closer to (my) home because there's a Class 1 race on the list of free races, the 4.27 Chester, a 10-runner Listed contest over a left-handed 7f on what is currently good to soft ground that is softer in places. there's quite a lot of rain around in the North West (as always!) and I'd not be surprised to see this go to soft by tea-time Saturday. That said, here's the card...

He's A Monster won last time out and is four from six so far, Brad The brief has won two of his last four, Mount Athos is three from five and although winless in eight since scoring on his debut, Holguin has five runner-up finishes and a third places from those eight efforts, finishing 222 in his three races in Listed company.

Ffion and He's A Monster both step up from good runs at Class 3, whilst Think climate was in Class 2 action a fortnight ago. Witch Hunter is in decent nick right now and is denoted as a fast finisher and he, like Think Climate and three others all raced a fortnight ago.

The rest of the field bar Misty Grey have raced in the last seven weeks, though, with Misty Grey now returning from over six months off. he wasn't in the best of form before his break and that allied to a potential rustiness puts me off him.

He's A Monster, Holguin and Think Climate are all three years old, so they'll carry 3lbs less than the two females (Fast Response & Ffion) and 8lbs less than the top half of the card, which should be very handy here. Speaking of weight, Brad The Brief is the highest rated runner here at 112 and would be best off at the weights, but for the 108-rated Holguin getting that 8lb pull for his age.

The 6yr old mare Ffion is the sole course and distance winner in the field, but Misty Grey, Mount Athos, Witch Hunter, He's A monster and Think Climate have all scored over a similar trip elsewhere.

Instant Expert adds to the above data by telling us that three of the field have won on good to soft ground and that three have scored on soft. We also see that we've three previous Class 1 flat winners...

If it does end up being soft, then brad the brief would be a better bet than if it was a bit drier. The returning Misty Grey hasn't gone well at Class 1 and his sole Flat win was over 6f. Sam Maximus has also struggled at his level. As for their place form...

...both Witch Hunter and Holguin look really comfortable under these conditions. They're drawn at opposite ends of the stalls (in boxes 2 and 8) and the old adage of needing/wanting to be drawn low at Chester is backed up by the stats from similar past races...

...whilst the best place to be in those races above is as close tot he lead as possible...

Our field has raced as follows in their most recent outings...

...and I'd probably want to be with those in the top four of that list.

Summary

Holguin and Brad The Brief are best in at the weights, both scored well on Instant Expert, both are drawn in the inside three stalls and both will be up with the pace, so they're both in my final three. They're also both 4/1 co-favs with Witch Hunter, who I do like, but he's going to have encounter traffic and I think that stops him beating the other two and I'm not going E/W at 4/1 about any horse.

If I'm going for an E/W bet, i'm taking the generous-looking 10/1 from Hills about the in-form He's A Monster. I know he's up in class, but he has won four from six, his draw isn't horrific and he's certainly going to be up with the pace, so he'll do for me. As for the winner, I (marginally) prefer Holguin over Brad The Brief, mainly due to the weight allowance.

Racing Insights, Friday 14/07/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

Sadly, my chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just two qualifiers for Friday...

...but I can still fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.15 Ascot
  • 2.25 Newmarket
  • 3.50 York
  • 4.45 Newmarket
  • 5.35 Kilbeggan
  • 6.35 Chepstow

...and whilst the field is a little larger than I'm normally comfortable with, it makes sense to tie the daily feature in with the free races, so we're going to have a look at Final Watch and the 4.45 Newmarket, a 14-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

FORM : Amber Island won last time out, as did Under The Twilight, whilst Final Watch, Razeyna and Waiting All Night all had top 3 finishes. Street Kid, Maxi Boy, Persuasion and Waiting All Night have failed to win any of their last 8, 12, 17 and 11 races respectively.

CLASS : Tiger Crusade and Street Kid both drop down a class, but Amber Island, Maxi Boy, Love de Vega (on yard debut here) and Waiting All Night are all up a level, whilst Under The Twilight is up two classes after his LTO win.

COURSE/DISTANCE RECORD : All bar Maxi Boy and Waiting All Night have won over 7f and we've two course winners in the shape of Final Watch and Love de Vega who have both scored over course and distance.

LAST RAN : Love de Vega might well be in need of a run after nearly nine months off the track, whilst all his rivals have been out in the last two months. Waiting All Night ran as recently as last Friday!

Our two LTO winners are the only females in the races and we've a pair of 3 yr olds, Harry Magnus & Waiting All Night, at the foot of the weights thanks partly to their 8lbs weight for age allowance.

Instant Expert identifies nine past good to firm winners and seven who scored at least once at Class 3 on turf. The graphic below also suggests that this trip hasn't been an enjoyable one for the likes of Lyndon B (1 from 12) and Persuasion (2 from 18) and although Final Watch is on the horses for courses list, he has struggled at Class 3, winning just once in seven starts...

Tiger Crusade is now 11lbs higher than his last Flat win, but he did score at Lingfield on the A/W at 4lbs higher than today, just three starts ago, but Under The twilight really is 12lbs higher than when she won almost four weeks ago! Persuasion is the one dropping down the weights, but has run well in defeat off marks of 86-89 in recent outings.

As you're probably aware, I'm not always sure about the effects of the draw over a straight race and on the face of past similar contests...

...you'd say that the lower you were drawn the better, but the PRB3 stats say that the centre of the stalls is where you want to be...

...whilst I can't help but feel that the LOW / MID /HIGH stats are a bit skewed by an unusually large number of winners from stall 1...

...so I'll park the draw for now and file it as unresolved today, but what I am pretty sure about is that you don't want to be backing hold-up horses here in a competitive big-field contest on quick ground...

...and if you can identify a front-runner, you could be quids in, Thankfully, we can quickly make an assumption as to how the race might progress by looking at the field's last few runs and they look like this...

...which is great news for me, because I liked Mister Bluebird before I started writing the piece! Harry Magnus has that supposedly plum draw in stall 1, but won't get to take advantage of it and he'll have a wall of runners ahead of him. The other 'pace' runner in the field is Love de Vega, but he somewhat lost his way last season and hasn't been seen since last year. And more on pace, this is how they might break out in draw order...

Summary

Mister Bluebird is likely to lead and I much prefer him as my front-runner than the rusty Love de Vega. Mister Bluebird isn't drawn far from the centre, which PRB3 says is the spot to be in and he has gone well in all four starts this season. He might not be an obvious pick as a winner, but with most bookies paying four places (Sky go 5, as ever!), I'd be happy with a 9/1 E/W punt here.

Prior to doing the analysis, I liked Lyndon B and H4C horse Final Watch as possible E/W candidates too, but I fear the pace will kill their chances here, so I'm going to put them in the "every chance but not carrying my money" category. Street Kid, however, might outrun his 18/1 price ticket and make the frame if not ridden too aggressively this time, he's down in class and trip and has a better jockey on board than last time, so he could be involved. Just small stakes, though!

Racing Insights, Thursday 13/07/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.35 Newmarket
  • 3.45 Doncaster
  • 4.00 Carlisle
  • 5.20 Newmarket
  • 7.00 Epsom
  • 7.50 Newbury

...from which the best on paper is arguably the first on the list, but only four are set to contest the Group 2 Princess of Wales Stakes, so I'll take a look at the last on that same card, the 5.20 Newmarket, a 10-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on good to firm ground...

This has the feel of a pretty open contest and I can already make a case for four or five of them, but only Glenfinnan was a winner last time out and Greatgadian, Darkness and Soar Above have no wins in their last six (12, 15 and 9 actually!) outings.

I'm going to be fairly ruthless at this point and discard all three as they are 1 from 15, 0 from 15 and 1 from 13 on the Flat and I just know that I couldn't be tempted to back them.

Of my remaining seven runners, all are moving in class to run a Class 3 today. Titian, Good Karma and Bodorgan all drop in from Class 2, whilst Sirona's last three (of a 4-race career!) have all been in Listed company. The other three runners (United Front, Glenfinnan and Bling On The Music) were all in Class 4 action when last seen, which in Glenfinnan's case was ten months ago and that might be an issue. Titian has been off for ten weeks, but the remainder have all raced in the last two to seven weeks.

Glenfinnan is hooded for the first time and actually makes a handicap debut here, as does Sirona and it's Good Karma's second attempt in handicap company. We have four three year olds in the field (Sirona, the sole filly in the race, Good Karma, Glenfinnan & Bodorgan) and they will receive a very handy 9lb weight allowance for their age, which should make them very competitive, even if they lack a little experience.

Instant Expert says that only two of the remaining seven runners have won on good to form ground and that only one has won a Class 3 flat race, mind you only three have tried! Bodorgan is our sole course winner, whilst only Glenfinnan has scored over a mile on turf...

Bling On The Music may have own on good to firm, but a 1 in 7 record isn't great, nor is his 0 from 5 at the trip, although United front has gone one race more on that score. The absence of green above suggests we might (or might not!) learn more from the place stats. There's only one way to find out!

Sirona is pretty much untested in these conditions, but both Titian and United Front have gone well at this grade previously. The latter has also shown a liking for good to firm ground. Don't get me wrong a win and two places from five efforts isn't much to crow about, but his Flat record on other going is just 0 wins and 2 places from 11 starts, so good to firm might well be his thing and both he and Titian seem to 'get' the trip.

Those two are drawn pretty wide with only Glenfinnan and top weight Greatgadian outside of them, but I doubt that the draw is going to make or break a runners' chances here over a straight mile and that's how it has been in the past here...

...whereas the pace profile of those races tells a different story and the emphasis has been on taking or getting close to the lead...

...which isn't great news for Bling On The Music or Good Karma, based on their last two or three efforts...

...so much so that I'm ready to discard that pair too, giving me just five to focus on.

Summary

3pm : I like Glenfinnan and the way he won his maiden last September, but he's up in class and hasn't raced since. That said, he is likely to make the running here and if allowed a soft lead, he could well run away with this one, as he did at Yarmouth. He's hardly thrown in off a mark of 91 and I'd be wary of backing him at that weight, but I suspect the 9lb allowance will be the key here and I'd say he's the one to beat.

I don't know enough about Sirona, other than that she lacks relevant experience under these conditions and has been well beaten in her last three outings. Both Titian and United Front scored well on the place side of Instant Expert and both look well set to play a major part here again, if only because the rest of the field might not be good enough, whilst Bodorgan receives weight all round and wasn't beaten by far in two recent runs at a higher grade.

I won't get involved with Sirona, until I know a bit more about her, but any of Titian, United Front and/or Bodorgan could chase Glenfinnan home and make the frame.

5.30pm odds check : The market goes 9/2 Glenfinnan & Bodorgan, 7/1 Titian and 20/1 United Front! So, I'd back Glenfinnan and take an E/W punt on both Titian and United Front. Skybet are paying four places here and still offer 14's about United Front and that might well be a nice bet.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 12/07/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.25 Dundalk
  • 4.30 Lingfield
  • 5.40 Lingfield
  • 6.30 Kempton
  • 6.40 Bath
  • 7.00 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have sadly only generated the following runner for me to consider...

That said, Dalby Forest does run in one of our free races, so let's focus upon that 5.40 Lingfield race. It's a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good to firm ground. The track is firm in places, but with rain forecast, I'd imagine it'll remain good to firm for these runners...

...from which we have no LTO winners, but with a three race form line of 212, Skallywag Bay brings the best results to the table. She has won two of her last six plus those two runner-up finishes, Dalby Forest has a win and a place from his last three, Dynamite Katie has a win and a place from her last five and Betweenthesticks won seven races ago. Lipsink, Just That Lord and So Smart are winless in their last 10, 7 and 9 races respectively, but the latter has at least made the frame in three of his five runs this season.

Both Skallywag Bay and Dnamic Katie step up one class here, whilst it's a yard debut for bottom weight and oldest (10 yo now!) runner Just That Lord, who might well need the run after an 11-month absence. Featured horse Dalby Forest hasn't raced for four months, but the remainder of the field have all had at least one outing in the last four weeks.

None of these have won at Lingfield before, mind you only two of them (Dalby Forest & Just That Lord) have raced on this turf strip, visiting here just once each (Dalby Forest did at least make the frame when third of nine over 6f on his sole Flat run to date, back in May 2022!). The trip, however, shouldn't be an issue as all bar Dynamic Katie are past 5f winners (her win was over 7f at Dundalk), although Skallywag Bay's 5f win was on the A/W here three weeks ago.

We have two fillies in the race, Skallywag Bay and Dynamic Katie and they are two of our three 3yo runners (Betweenthesticks being the other) who receive a very handy 5lb weight for age allowance here, which could be crucial over a fast 5f. Instant Expert doesn't really paint a great picture of this field from a Flat win perspective...

...and whilst I don't know a great deal about these runners, I am aware that some of them have consistently come close to winning those races above...

...where So Smart catches the eye with some consistent performances under expected conditions. Sadly his recent run of making the frame in three from five this season isn't bringing his mark down to a winning one and he's up a pound here after a half length defeat last time out, pushing his OR back to 6lbs higher than his last win, but those numbers above suggest he's due to go well yet again.

He is, of course, drawn widest of all seven and somewhat surprisingly for a straight 5f on quick ground, there has been an advantage from being drawn highest...

...suggesting that he and Lipsink might well be best suited by occupying stalls 6 & 7. The Pace Analysis of those races speaks for itself...

...although the resultant pace/draw heat map might spring a shock by suggesting that it is the low-drawn leaders who fare best of all...

I think this implies that the pace aspect of the contest might well be important than the draw and this ties in with my own thoughts. There really shouldn't be much of a draw bias in a small field over a straight sprint, but early pace quite often wins the race. It takes a super effort to come from off the pace over a quick five furlongs and if this field's last few runs are anything to go by, this could be a right tear-up...

Summary

I don't think the pace and/or draw stats are going to help us much here. There shouldn't be an advantage from any part of the draw and the inference from the draw data is they're all inclined to 'go for it'. The vulnerable ones could well be Dalby Forest and Just That Lord after long lay-offs and they might need the run, which is always conducive to going well in a burn-up.

Skallywag Bay is in the best form and gets a useful 5lb weight allowance, which might well make her the one to beat here, but is she a 6/4 or 13/8 shot? Probably not. I'm not saying she can't or shouldn't win this, but I'd not want to back her at those odds. Next best on my reckoning is So Smart, whose consistency might be the key here, he certainly wouldn't be winning out of turn and has been knocking on the door this season. Odds of 7/2 aren't overly generous, but are at least fair, so I'll have a couple of quid there.

Some firms will pay three places and Lipsink will be popular, based on his instant Expert data, but I think that former Class 3 winner Betweenthesticks has the potential to make the frame here, especially as he too gets that 5lb allowance and his 5lb claimer has ridden him to victory twice already. 6/1 or even 13/2 would normally be a bit short for me as an E/W bet, but if you're getting three places in a seven-horse race, that's acceptable.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 11/07/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Mister X and Earls would be of most obvious interest initially. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 2.45 Pontefract
  • 3.55 Pontefract
  • 4.15 Wolverhampton
  • 5.15 Tramore

...and with one of the top two runners from The Shortlist running in the best looking race from the free list, it makes sense to have a closer look at Earls and the 3.55 Pontefract, which is a 7-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 6f on good ground, that is already softer in places and more rain is expected...

Bottom weight Kitai is the only LTO winner in the field today and as the sole 3 yr old will also benefit from a 6lb weight allowance. The solitary female in the race is, however up two classes and 5lbs here for a two length success at Carlisle just under a fortnight ago.

None of her rivals even made the frame last time out, but all have at least one win in their most recent form line and in a bid to get a bit more success, Aleezdancer is in first-time blinkers, Earls makes a cheekpieces debut and a visor is now fitted to Aphelios.

All of these are previous 6f winners with the veteran and top-weight Summerghand, Aleezdancer and Kitai all former course and distance winners. Featured horse Earl is coming off a short break of almost seven weeks, but the others have all raced in the last 8 to 19 days.

All seven have at least one Flat win on good or good to soft ground, but according to Instant Expert, just three have won a flat race at Class 2...

From a win perspective, Summerghand would probably want quicker ground that this, but he has actually won twice on soft ground too, so all might not be lost there especially now that he's 2lbs lower than when winning the 24-runner Ayr Gold Cup last September and he did win a Listed contest at Lingfield in February. Aleezdancer may well be 1 from 11 at Class 2, he has finished 4313 in the four sub-£20k Class 2 contests, so it's not a given that he might be outclassed here and when we look at place form, it's Bay Breeze who looks the weakest...

...whilst it's hard to ignore Aphelios' OR of 89, some 14lbs higher than his win at Carlisle last August, although it would be unfair of me not to mention that he did win on the A/W at Kempton off 84 in October and was placed next time out at the same track/class/distance off 88.

Our Draw Analyser suggests that those drawn centrally fare worse than runners drawn either side of them...

...and much is made about the "Ponty Golden Corridor from stalls 1 & 2", but closer analysis shows that stall 6 is also a decent place to run from...

...I'm assuming that's because they can hit the turn a little wider and take the bend at a greater speed, somewhat akin to an F1 racing line. Earls & Kitai will be pleased to have got the inside draw, but old warrior Summerghand could be well primed from box six, based on the above. Much will, of course, depend on how runners approach this race, because a 6f at Ponty certainly favours those most willing to get on with things from the off...

Sadly, this bunch aren't exactly the early pace types as shown from our pace/draw heat map below...

...with only It Just Takes Time having more 3+ scores than 2 or under. This suggests we're going to get a falsely run race here, which will play into the hands of those who might well have been left behind had there been any significant early real pace.

Summary

It's not obvious where to go here, aside from discarding  Bay Breeze, based on Instant Expert. I suppose Aphelios' weight is too much of a concern for me to feel comfortable backing him and whilst Kitai won well recently, she's up in class and weight and a price of 15/8 or 2/1 doesn't seem to represent great value to me, although I'm sure she'll be in the mix.

This brings me to Summerghand, who I do like despite his form so far this summer, His mark is now dropping to below his last win, he gets on well with jockey Danny Tudhope and he did win here over course and distance on his only previous visit, 5/1 looks more than fair to me, so that's where I'll be heading. Featured horse Earls makes a UK debut and is probably too high in the weights right now, so is probably left watched, but Bet365's price of 8/1 about Aleezdancer was interesting. He's now only 3lbs higher than his last win and with his jockey taking 7lbs off, he could spring a surprise here. He has gone well enough several times under similar conditions and whilst I don't think he'll beat Summerghand, he'd not be a bad E/W bet, especially with most firms paying three places.

Racing Insights, Monday 10/07/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 4.05 Ayr
  • 5.15 Ayr
  • 6.15 Ripon
  • 7.43 Roscommon

...the best of which looks like being the 4.05 Ayr, a 6-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m5f on good to soft ground...

None of these won last time out, but Ravenscraig Castle was a runner-up, Alpine Stroll has been second in each of his last two starts, whilst La Pulga has a win and two places from his last three and Geremia also won three races ago.

Geremia is also the one not moving in class here, as top weight Charging Thunder is down a level and the other four all step up from Class 4. La Pulga and Geremia have both won over a similar trip, whilst both Charging Thunder and Ravenscraig Castle are former course and distance winners with the latter now wearing a visor for the first time.

The entire field have raced in the last 12 to 23 days, so they should all be fresh enough to be competitive here for a race where three of them have already won on good to soft ground, according to Instant Expert, which also informs us that only one of them has scored at Class 3 before...

Charging Thunder runs on good to soft for the first time and although his stats look good above, most of that form is on good to firm ground and his recent runs have been hit and miss, finishing 2nd, 10th, 2nd and 13th, all at Class 2 after back to back Class 3 wins (inc 1 x CD) last July. The field's record at this grade isn't good at all aside from Charging Thunder, of course and both Ravenscraig Castle & Alpine Stroll have struggled to win on this softer ground, although they have both made the frame a couple of times...

The other concern about Ravenscraig Castle is the fact that he's 0 from 13 over the last two years and is still 10lbs higher than his last win. He will, of course, run from pretty much the centre of the stalls from box four, but the draw really shouldn't be having too much effect over such a lengthy trip and this theory is backed up by our stats, albeit off a small sample size...

and those races above have really favoured hold-up horses...

...which could well be some much needed good news for Ravenscraig Castle...

Summary

Geremia and Ravenscraig Castle both look well suited by the pace profile here, but that's the only real positive that I've found for the latter. La Pulga might go off too quickly and get caught and he's not really a fan of this softer ground. And you can pretty say the same about Alpine Stroll, whilst all of Charging Thunder's form is on quicker surfaces, even if he does drop in class here.

Zimmerman, however, does like the good to soft ground, but back to back wins on this going last autumn took his mark from 74 to 82 and seems to have toiled in the 80's since and is probably still in the grip of the assessor here.

All of which brings me back to Geremia, he has the ideal pace profile for this contest, he was running on well late on in defeat last time out and the extra furlong should suit, making him my tentative selection here at 4/1 with the 3/1 La Pulga probably the biggest danger.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 08/07/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.30 Haydock
  • 3.15 Haydock
  • 3.50 Haydock
  • 4.15 Sandown
  • 4.37 Beverley
  • 5.17 Leicester

There are better races out there, but I do like to tie the daily feature in with the list of free races, so let's have a look at the 4yr old filly Oriole in the 4.37 Beverley, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

Bringbackmemories and Freak Out both won last time out, whilst Richard P Smith and Havana Party both won their penultimate starts, but Crown Princess has failed to win any of her last ten. Top weight and featured horse, Oriole takes a drop in class here, as do Poet's Dawn and our LTO winners Bringbackmemories and Freak Out.

Solar Joe and Crown Princess are the only runners yet to win over a similar trip to this one, but the latter has at least won on this track albeit at 1m½f just over two years ago. The experienced Poet's Dawn has won four times over that 1m½f trip here at Beverley, as well as a win over 7½f, whilst Freak Out's LTO win was over this course and distance just 11 days ago.

He'll be the one with the least rest between runs, but all of these have raced in the last six weeks or so, meaning that none of them should be too rusty. Quite a few of this field have reasonable records under certain aspects of the forecasted conditions, but none have excelled and some have struggled, according to Instant Expert...

There's more negatives in the above than there are positives, but that's to be expected down at Class 5, but the main concerns surround Bringbackmemories (trip), Crown Princess (going/track), Freak Out (going), Poet's Dawn (going/trip) and Havana Party (class). Perhaps the place stats might show some of these in a better light...

That certainly puts the likes of Crown Princess in with a shout of making the frame and there's no real horror stories there, suggesting that any of these could grab a place in a contest that currently has no obvious winner. If we then turn to the draw, there's not a great deal in it, but the lower stalls have fared better than those drawn higher...

...but you'd have to expect that over 1m2f on quick ground that the draw bias could easily be undone and that race positioning aka pace will be of a greater importance, so let's see how those races above have unfolded...

Essentially the further forward a horse races, the more chance it has of winning/placing, therefore if we've any confirmed front runners around, they'd be the ones to focus on, but sadly that doesn't appear to be the case based on recent events...

There's not many of these wanting to take it on, so there's the chance of a falsely run race, but the top three on that list do at least have the ability to get on with things.

Summary

It's not a good standard of race, but it's certainly competitive. No odds available for this at 3.45pm on Friday, so I'll come back to this later on, but my thoughts are that the likes of Bringbackmemories and Freak Out who both won LTO should be involved with Crown Princess in with a shout of making the frame.

Racing Insights, Friday 07/07/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for Friday, but I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.55 Doncaster
  • 3.40 Sandown
  • 4.15 Sandown
  • 5.55 Bellewstown
  • 6.40 Haydock
  • 8.10 Beverley

...where the second of the two Sandown contests is a competitive-looking, small field, Class 1 contest, so let's look at the 4.15 Sandown, a 5-runner, Listed flat race for horses aged 3 and above. The trip is a right-handed 1m2f on good/good to soft ground and here's the field...

All five actually raced against each other last time out and that was in the Listed Wolferton Stakes over this trip at Royal Ascot seventeen days ago, where Saga was well clear of the others...

...beating Notre Belle Bete and Certain Lad by 7.5 and 8.5 lengths respectively with Poker Face and Savvy Victory a further 2 and 17.25 lengths back. That doesn't however tell the full story as only Saga really ran his own race and benefited from the three lowest drawn runners finishing in the first five home. Certain Lad and Savvy Victory were both hampered, although odds of 50/1 and 100/1 suggest they were never winning.

So, none won last time out, but Notre Belle Bete won three starts ago, Poker Face won the first three of his six outings to date and Savvy Victory won seven starts ago. Certain Lad last won eight races back and Saga's sole win from eleven efforts came on just his third appearance 22 months ago.

All five have, however, won over this trip, but none have raced here at Sandown before and they all raced in this grade 17 days ago!

CERTAIN LAD won a Group 3 contest on good to soft ground at York in August 2020 and ended his 2022 campaign with a decent third of ten in a Haydock Group 3 event. he returned to action in May of this year after 279 days off to run a creditable 3rd in a soft ground Class 2 handicap at Chester prior to his run in the Wolferton, where he was badly hampered.

NOTRE BELLE BETE started 2022 with a sequence reading 11913, but then lost his way under increasing weight before the addition of cheekpieces in November seemed to spark a renaissance and prior to the Wolferton LTO, his form in the cheekpieces read 22313, including winning a valuable Class 2 handicap at Newcastle on Good Friday. Transferring that form to the turf would be useful, but he is 0 from 15 on the Flat as opposed to 4 from 8 on the A/W.

POKER FACE is a lightly-raced (6 starts) 4 yr old who won his first three outings (2 x C5 & 1 @ C4), before a six month break last winter. He returned to action in April and was only headed inside the final furlong of the Gr3 Earl of Sefton Stakes at Newmarket, eventually finishing second. He faded late on next time out too, when trying to win a Gr2 at Chester from the front and has only raced at Royal Ascot since.

SAGA has made the frame in five of his ten Flat runs, but has only won a 7f, Class 3 maiden so far. That said, he only just failed (by a head) to win the 30-runner Britannia Stakes at Ascot a year ago and went down by the same margin at Newmarket in another Class 2 heritage handicap two starts ago. that was his first run for seven months and then ran really well at Ascot last time out, taking advantage of the low draw.

SAVVY VICTORY won over today's trip last April & August and was a length and a half clear of Certain Lad at Chester in May, when finishing second of nine at Chester, although Certain Lad was racing for the first time in over nine months. He was badly hampered in the Wolferton last time out, but has no real Class 1 form and arguably the weakest here on paper.

There is a suggestion that the course might dry out a little so for our view of Instant Expert, I've included form for both Good ground as well as Good/Good to Soft...

Notre Belle Bete's figures were always going to be poor, as he's 0 from 15 on turf, so we'll check the place stats shortly and the field's lack of success at Class 1 confirms my belief that is only Class 2 standard. Three of these have at least won on good to soft and Savvy Victory probably won't want it to dry out. Those place stats I mentioned look like this...

...suggesting that most of them will be happy if the groundstaff continue to water the track as they have been doing and based on the above, Poker Face probably edges the race for a place. As you'd expect with such a small field, there's no real advantage to be gained from the draw...

...although those drawn higher tend to make the frame more often and the PRB3 data points towards the higher draw again...

...so that's more good news for Poker Face. The pace breakdown of those races above show that hold-up horses are at a disadvantage here...

...with those racing further forward more likely to fill the frame. Sadly there's not much early pace in this field based on recent evidence and it might well be left to Poker Face to set the fractions again, as he did at Chester recently...

...whilst our pace/draw heat map seems to everyone a chance here, although Saga looks worst off...

Summary

I expect a cagey affair here with no real pace angle and a look at the market at 4pm had Saga as the 5/4 favourite some way clear of next best Poker Face at 11/4. Poker Face is the one that has ticked most boxes for me during my analysis and I'd much rather back a horse at 11/4 who has two decent group runs behind him than a 5/4 fav who is 1 from 10 on the turf. Obviously, if this pans out like the Wolferton did, then it's Saga's race to win/lose, but I'd rather side with Poker Face here.

Racing Insights, Thursday 06/07/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.30 Yarmouth
  • 3.30 Yarmouth
  • 4.25 Bellewstown
  • 4.45 Haydock
  • 7.35 Kempton
  • 7.40 Bellewstown

...and of the four UK races, the one with the most Instant Expert data to work with is the 7.35 Kempton, a 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-dmile on standard to slow polytrack...

None of these won last time out, but Kingori has two wins and a place from his three starts so far. Rhythm N Rock, Tiempo Star and Ashky have all won two of their last seven, but four of the field (Naval Commander, Fantasy Believer, Billy Mill & Two Tempting) have lost at least seven on the bounce (7, 8, 8 & 11 respectively!)

Naval Commander does at least drop two classes here, as does Ashky, whilst Smiling Sunflower is down one with Kingori, Bruno's Gold and He's A Gentleman going the other direction.

This will be a UK debut, yard debut and handicap debut for Lion's Mane, as well as a return from a lengthy (233 days) absence, but Kingori (also on hcp debut) and the consistent Flyawaydream have been away longer (258 & 280 days). This is also a first run for Naval Commander with a tongue tie and Ashky in cheekpieces.

All bar Lion's Mane, Flyawaydream and Smiling Sunflower have won over today's trip, but the latter has at least won over 7f here at Kempton before, whist Naval Commander scored here over 1m3f. Four of the field (Rhythm N Rock, Fantasy Believer, Billy Mill & Two Tempting) are former course and distance winners.

I said that this race had the most Instant Expert data from the 'free' UK races, but that doesn't mean it's good news...

...but it might help to rule some out.

Fantasy Believer is probably best suited, as he's the only one with no red blocks for either going, class, course or distance, but I've concerns over Naval Commander and Billy Mill generally and the field's lack of Class 4 success, although a few of them do actually have decent place records at this grade...

Billy Mill looks a different animal on place stats and if I was being brutal, I'd probably be focusing my attention on these five, just on that place data...

That's not to say the the winner and placers (bookies will pay four places here) are definitely in that five (we'll soon see), but you'd have to say they look more likely based on the numbers, but we've a big field here and the bare data from the Draw Analyser suggests that Two Tempting and Billy Mill might have a job on their hands from out wide...

...and the stall by stall stats would appear to back this up...

The associated pace/draw heat map, however, seems to set more stall on the pace of the race rather than the draw...

...and that will be because the pace analyser says...

So, we really don't want a hold-up horse and ideally we get one who could lead from a high or even low draw. If we look at the field's last four runs from a pace perspective, sort them into draw order and attach them to the pace/draw heat map, we get something like this...

...with no standout runner. What I think might happen here is that the consistent Flyawaydream might try to nick this race from the front and attempt to make all. He's a natural front-runner, who has yet to finish outside the first three home in any of his six starts and has won under today's jockey, so I'll add him to the five who looked most likely to make the frame from Instant Expert.

Summary

I've left myself with six runners (Tiempo Star, Two Tempting, Billy Mill, Kingori, Fantasy Believer and Flyawaydream) for four places and whilst I think that Kingori and Fantasy Believer might well be the pick of the bunch, I'm not rushing out to back them at 4/1 and 13/2 respectively. I think both have an excellent chance of making the frame, but those odds aren't E/W odds for me.

The same would therefore apply to Tiempo Star and Flyawaydream at 9/2 and 6/1 respectively, leaving me with just Two Tempting at 15/2 and Billy Mill at 10's. And whilst these two are probably the weakest pair of the half-dozen under consideration, it only takes one or two of the principals to fail to fire and you've got yourself a nice E/W bet. It wouldn't be big stakes here, but a small interest bet would work.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 05/07/23

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Apologies for the later than usual posting of the daily column, but I've been away all day on a training course and didn't get home until after 9pm!

But the show must go on and with that in mind, Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 4.35 Tipperary
  • 4.42 Musselburgh
  • 7.00 Bath
  • 7.35 Bath
  • 7.45 Tipperary

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated quite a few runners to consider...

...and with Ben Pauling's horses not only being in fine form of late, but also having a good course record over the past year, it seems right to look at his two runners above. Mole Court looks the standout runner in a mediocre Class 5 chase and is already priced accordingly (as low as 13/8), so let's focus on stablemate Gentleman Valley who goes an hour in a better looking looking contest. The 4.23 Worcester is a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed 2m7f on good ground, although a 141 yard rail movement takes it beyond 2m7½f (2m7.64f to be more precise!)...

Not only is our featured horse, Gentleman Valley the only LTO winner, he actually comes here on a hat-trick after wins at Warwick and Market Rasen in the last seven weeks or so, but he's now up a class, as are Go Chique, Mr Tambourine Man and bottom weight Court Master.

Go Chique was a runner-up LTO and has won two of her last four and Mr Tambourine Man is two from five, but Irish Prophecy, Polish and Nevilles Cross are winless in seven, ten and seven races respectively, inlcuding several incomplete runs.

Mr Tambourine Man races for the first time since wind surgery and Nevilles Cross wears a first-time visor, whilst the sole mare in the race, Go Chique hasn't raced in over seven months and might well need the run.

None of these have won here at Worcester before and although the card says five of them have won at a similar trip, Instant Expert says only three have won over hurdles at this kind of distance...

...and Gentleman Valley looks the best of a fairly poor set of numbers. Polish's 0 from 6 at the trip raises immediate questions, of course and further analysis shows that he has only made the frame in one of the six races...

In fairness, off a small sample size of races, most of these look like they'd be well suited/placed to make the frame, but you'd still have to say that Gentleman Valley was the one to beat so far on both recent form and overall form as above.

We've no draw to worry about of course, so let's move swiftly on to the pace data for similar past races and our Pace Analyser is fairly clear about what type of horse would go well here...

Prominent horses and leaders make the frame most often and half of those placers then go on to win, so ideally we'll be picking a horse in the upper reaches of the following pace profiles, based on the field's most recent outings...

Feature horse Gentleman Valley sits at mid-point and would be advised to run prominently like he did last out, but there could quite well be some early pace on and that might be too much for Go Chique after a lengthy lay-off.

Summary

Based on the above, it's the featured horse Gentleman Valley for me. He isn't quite as high on the pace chart as I'd like, but did win from a prominent position last time out. He's in great recent form and scored well on Instant Expert and his yard are in good nick and have done well here at Worcester over the last year. Fortunately me going to post around 5 or 6 hours later than usual hasn't affected the price, he opened at 5/2 and that's still available and also the price I think he should be.

As for next best, I'm not sure about the fav Polish at 9/4 from a hold-up position, so maybe Go Chique might hang on for a place.